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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- The purpose of this paper is to report on the administered pricing sub-sector of a Post Keynesian-Institutionalist-System Dynamics (PKI-SD) core model that is currently under development by the authors. When complete, the model will be used to examine the dynamics of heterodox economic theory, as well as to test the implications of heterodox policy alternatives.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- In 1962, Luigi Pasinetti published a model of the "Cambridge theory of income distribution" that corrected a "logical slip" in Nicholas Kaldor's earlier formulation of the problem. Pasinetti's model included two stocks of capital instead of one, avoided Kaldor's assumption that the workers' marginal propensity to save was zero, and demonstrated that on a balanced growth path the rate of profit depends only on the growth rate of the labor force and the capitalists' marginal propensity to save (the "Pasinetti theorem"). Pasinetti examined the multiplier-accelerator family of models and concluded that they were unable to endogenously explain the interaction of the trend and the cycle due to their aggregate character. The purpose of this paper is to extend Pasinetti's 1962 model by adding a behavioral entrepreneurial expectations formulation to its structure. The extended model generates an interacting trend and cycle and closely mimics U.S. macroeconomic data. Full Information Maximum Likelihood estimation with Optimal Filtering (FIMLOF) is used to estimate the model's behavioral parameters, some of which evolve over time. These results add value to the debate about the causes of the interaction between the trend and the cycle and serve to blend ideas from Pasinetti's two papers.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- The number of security vulnerabilities, breaches and digital disaster increases over time. One important source of weaknesses of computer networks are the ubiquitous flaws (bugs) in the software, and most such bugs are exploitable by malicious agents. Consequently, patching the software to correct known bugs is becoming more important, especially for network-based system companies. However, this issue is often seen by decision-makers differently, due to the presumption that security measures are time consuming and a disturbance for the primary business activities. In addition, it is considered too costly to invest in prevention of something that might not happen. Patching often requires extensive testing and that computer networks be taken down. This work is a preliminary effort to build a system dynamics model for studying the trade offs and the risks of different patching policies.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- The positive relationship between education and sustainable economic development is now widely recognized. This study develops a dynamic model for population and primary education of Pakistan. Primary education sector in Pakistan is operating in both public and private sectors. Pakistan has a clear socio-economic division of rural and urban areas that get different priorities in allocations of public funds, believed to be instrumental for universal primary education. The public financial allocations are available to some extent from different publicly available sources but that too on country basis and not on area basis. On the other hand, there is no data available for private sector investment. Based on its assumptions this study estimates area-wise public and private sector investment in primary education in Pakistan, predicts development path of its population and literacy, and suggests financial policy to meet the challenge faced by Pakistan to achieve universal primary education by 2015.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- Cyber security data restrictions, e.g. due to fear of bad publicity, hinder systematic investigation of information security issues. We argue that group model building is a promising method to help mitigate such restrictions: 1) Models emerge from even incomplete and inaccurate data; 2) group model building helps develop a trustful relationship between data owners (clients) and modelers; 3) the iterative nature of group model building leads to increasingly structurally richer and more useful models, thus boosting further client interest and trust. We describe our experiences using a case for the transition to eOperations in the oil and gas industry. We analyze the outcome of two group model building workshops, the follow-up meetings and interview. We show the trajectory for how we gain access to data, how we developed and improve a model, what insights the client learned, and more important, how we build up trust with the client during this process.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- There is not one single system dynamics approach. Apart from 'mainstream' system dynamics, there are several distinctive practices in use. An attempt is made here to reveal basic assumptions of different practices and to classify them in a paradigmatic classification framework on the basis of these basic assumptions. Revealing its basic assumptions might be important for increasing the acceptance and use of system dynamics. It will be shown here that mainstream system dynamics corresponds well with critical pluralism, that other approaches are more postpositivist, pragmatist or constructivist, and that still other (non-existent) paradigmatic approaches might potentially be interesting. The classification framework might be used furhtermore to find (i) approaches that suit issues, circumstances, parties involved and goals, (ii) the basic assumptions of different approaches and hence the interpretation and use of the results, and (iii) consistent matches and mixes of system dynamics approaches with other method(ologie)s.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- Dynamically complex multi-dimensional societal issues are societal issues characterised by complex time evolutionary behaviour on multiple dimensions, and very often also by many uncertainties, different ethical aspects, multiple views and multiple parties concerned. In this paper, the use of system dynamics (and multi-criteria decision analysis) for decision-making in case of such dynamically complex multi-dimensional societal issues will be looked at. More specifically will we look at the resulting (potential) capacity to support decision-making in case of multiple dimensions, multiple time scales, uncertainty, multiple decision-makers and third parties, and ethical and sustainable aspects, power, coercion, and uneven distribution. Related to these aspects are robustness, resilience, flexibility and responsibility which will be discussed too.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- The systemic approach in studying tourism is firmly accepted in literature because of the complexity of the topic both from the supply side (the heterogeneity of goods and services making the tourist product) and the demand side (not every operator in the tourism network chain has a direct contact with tourists). To face this complexity the Input-Output analysis, theorized by Wassily Leontief, is widely used in the empirical studies regarding tourism. This methodology, however, gives just a snapshot, even very detailed in some cases, of the economic structure under study but gives very few insights from a dynamic point of view. To overcome this limitation the Dynamic Input-Output Model (DI-O model), implemented with system dynamics methodology, is introduced in this paper. Moreover some considerations about the technical sustainability of the production process are made possible by the proposed model.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- Why is it that some problem solving tasks in organisations though well posed in principle turn out to be incredibly difficult or impossible to solve when taken on in practice? Why is it that after having followed an otherwise ordered and predictable path we often find ourselves suddenly on an increasingly turbulent stretch of road where we realise to our horror that our ability to intervene in the unfolding chaos is rather limited? Yes, complexity theory provides many important insights into the dynamics of complex organisational systems and over the years we have become familiar with terms like bifurcation points, strange attractors and phase transitions. However, given a concrete organisational or engineering problem, their use remains largely metaphorical. In fact, the complex dynamics is assumed to be given and no account is offered about its actual emergence. This paper, therefore, aims to serve as a kind of magnifying glass that helps us to study the emergence of complex behaviour in organisations. Also, it gives an account why complexity often out-steps us in many problem solving tasks.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- f9377a3ac7b50b1fca5e04fb6d679ec2, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 32937c7b43e3e015509bb71fd40d2054
- Description:
- This workshop will lay the foundation for effective development of large system dynamic modeling projects using Vensim. A key to this development process is the automated combining (merging) of models. Even small system dynamics models can be fairly complex. When the size of the model gets large, such models often become unwieldy, difficult to maintain, and hard to understand by any but the original modeler involved in the development. This workshop will provide specific methods in standardization to alleviate these issues and apply concepts from modern software development practices to system dynamics modeling. Participants will learn techniques for modularization, normalization, and the application of automation tools. While much of the workshop is specific to Vensim, many of the concepts are generic and can be applied to any system dynamics simulation environments.