Duncan, Richard C., "The Mexican Petroleum 'Play In Two Acts': Taking Hold of Oil Productions Data", 1996
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Imagine for a moment, that you're viewing act #n of a stage play. Thus, you know the outcome of the first (n-1) acts, and the very latest status of act #n, now in progress. From this information, you'd like to predict the outcome of the present act and, if possible, the outcome of the whole play. Metaphorically speaking, that is what this paper is all about.