Lyneis, James M. with Alexander L. Pugh III, "Automated vs. 'Hand' Calibration of System Dynamics Models: An Experiment With a Simple Project Model", 1996
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A necessary part of any system dynamics analysis is the estimation of parameter values which best correspond to the real system. The method of estimating parameters for a typical system dynamic model usually involves two steps (with potentially multiple iterations in the second) 1. Make an a priori estimate based on direct observation, educated guesses by managers, or similar parameters in other settings (Graham (Graham [1980] refers to this as data {at or below the level of aggregation); and 2. Revise those estimates in the process of calibrating the model to aggregate data.