Schade, Wolfgang with Michael Krail, "Modeling and calibration of large scale system dynamics models: the case of the ASTRA model", 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
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Though the size of System Dynamics models should be compact focusing on the main feedback loops determining system behavior one kind of model can become quite large: multi-national, multi-sectoral spatially differentiated models. The paper briefly presents such a model called ASTRA (=Assessment of Transport Strategies), which is developed in several versions over the past eight years.
The purpose of the paper is to describe an approach how such a system dynamics model despite its size can be calibrated to make it applicable for Europeanwide policy analysis of transport policies. The approach is designed as a sequential process involving an au-tomated tool combining a C-coded steering programme with the Vensim® optimizer to enable calibration of large numbers of similar equations that only differ by their pa-rametrization.