LAKE
RESEARCH
PARTNERS
To: Interested Parties
Strategy ¢ Precision * Impact
From: Lake Research Partners
Re: New Survey of Virginia Voters Reveals Majority Support for Death Penalty Repeal
Date: February 1, 2021
A recently completed survey of likely 2021 voters in six swing localities of Virginia shows solid majorities
in support of repealing the state’s death penalty, even in the face of withering attacks.’ Support for
alternatives to the death penalty starts out broad, crossing partisan and regional lines, and picks up as
voters hear arguments on both sides, including among Republicans and independents. Below are key
findings from the survey.
1. More than 6-in-10 Voters, Including Majorities of Independents and Republicans, Support Life
in Prison over the Death Penalty. Before being presented any information on the proposal coming
before the Virginia General Assembly, more than 6-in-10 survey respondents indicate a
preference for some version of a life sentence over the death penalty as the punishment for first-
degree murder, and by a commanding 32-point margin. Fully 61% of voters prefer life sentences
compared to just 29% who prefer the death penalty, with another 10% undecided.
a. Among Democrats, three-quarters or 76% prefer some version of a life sentence, while
only 14% choose the death penalty, and 10% were undecided. Republicans prefer life
sentences over the death penalty by a margin of 53% to 39%, and independents prefer
life sentences over the death penalty by a margin of 53% to 37%.
2. AMajority of Voters Supports the Bipartisan Repeal Legislation. By a 12-point margin, a majority
of voters (51%) across these districts supports the bipartisan legislation to repeal the death
penalty, while just 39% opposed such a measure. Among Democrats, support for the measure
starts at 70%. For voters who are explicitly told the death penalty would be replaced by a sentence
of life in prison without parole, support starts at 53% overall (+14) and 74% for Democrats. This is
before respondents hear any additional information about the proposal—pro or con.
3. Engaging this Debate Only Solidifies Majority Support for Repeal. After voters hear arguments
on both sides of the proposal, including a harshly worded attack from opponents, majority
support for repeal remains solid, even ticking up 3 points to 54%, while opposition drops 4 points
to 35%. The margin of support for repeal across these districts almost doubles to a nearly twenty-
point margin.
+ Lake Research Partners designed and administered this telephone survey (cells and landlines), using professional
interviewers. The survey reached n=600 likely 2021 general election voters in the following Virginia State Senate
districts: SD 1 (Peninsula), SD 7 (Virginia Beach), SD 10 (Chesterfield), SD 12 (Henrico), SD 13 (Loudoun), and SD 29
(Prince William). The survey was conducted January 23-28, 2021. The margin of error for the base sample is +/-4.0%
and larger for subgroups (e.g., +/-10.0% for individual State Senate districts).
Page 2
Text of E d Debate
[ANTI-DEATH PENALTY] (Some/other) people say
the death penalty needs to be repealed because we
can never eliminate the risk of executing of
innocent people. Capital punishment costs
taxpayers millions more than alternative sentences
without increasing public safety. It is also applied
unfairly, with Black people and those who cannot
afford a good attorney most likely to receive the
death penalty. That’s why replacing the death
penalty is the better option.
(Rotated)
[PRO-DEATH PENALTY] (Some/other) people say
the death penalty in Virginia is only used in the
worst cases, and that it should remain an option to
deter the most violent criminals, like serial
murderers, child rapists and torturers, and
terrorists, like the Beltway sniper. Victims of
violent crime and their families deserve justice,
and the knowledge that the offender can never
repeat their crimes. The death penalty is the only
appropriate punishment for the most violent
murderers.
Sometimes over the course of a survey like this, people change their minds... would you:
Favor repeal: 54%
Oppose repeal: 35%
Undecided: 10%
4. Independents and Republicans Shift Disproportionately in Support of Repeal as they Learn
More about the Measure. Independents move to support repealing the death penalty by a 6-
point margin after hearing pro and con arguments, and to a 10-point margin over the course of
the survey. Republicans also move—first to supporting the measure by a 2-point margin, when
they hear advocates of repeal counter opponents’ message with their own, then to a 4-point
margin over the course of the survey when life without parole is explicitly mentioned as the
replacement. Among Democrats, support for repealing the death penalty after hearing pro-con
arguments increases from 70% to 74%—and reaches a high of 77% over the course of the survey.
5. Advocates of Repeal Have Powerful Arguments at their Disposal. The strongest messages in
support of repeal of the death penalty emphasize the possibility—and history—of innocent
people being executed and that the death penalty has been used as a tool of white supremacy in
Virginia.
Text of Messages % Total convincing
(% Very)
More than 170 innocent men and women have been sentenced to die for
crimes they didn’t commit before being eventually exonerated, and some
innocent people have been executed. With the death penalty, there will oo)
always be a risk of executing innocent people.
The death penalty in Virginia was frequently used as a tool of white
supremacy. From 1901 until 1981, Black men were executed at a rate
nearly 6 times higher than White men, many for non-homicide offenses. 58% (44%)
And still today, individuals convicted of killing a white person are three
times more likely to be executed than those convicted of killing a Black
person. We shouldn’t continue this biased, unjust legacy.
Page 3
The Death Penalty is Not an Issue Driving Vote Decisions. Only 12% of all respondents say they
would definitely not vote for a candidate with whom they disagreed on the issue of the death
penalty, but whom they generally agreed with on most issues. Perhaps more important, less than
half this number, just 5% of the electorate in these districts, are voters who are both against
repeal and say they would definitely not vote for a candidate with whom they disagree on the
issue of the death penalty.
Voters’ Issue Agenda is Dominated by Concerns over Pandemic and Economy, Not Crime. When
respondents are asked to choose which they think is the most important issue for their state
elected officials to do something about, they focus first and foremost on the COVID-19 pandemic
(38%), followed by jobs and the economy (21%), education (12%), and health care (8%). Concerns
over public safety are minimal, coming in last at just 3%, including among Republicans (4%),
independents (6%), and Democrats (2%).
eK RR
CC BY-NC-SA 4.0