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Korean Progress!
By maudeaster on 2018-07-27 09:44:21
[caption id="attachment_ 11445" align="alignnone" width="600"]
North Korea returns war
remains wrapped in UN logos[/caption] Despite claims that US-North Korea negotiations are stalled, in fact there is
encouraging progress: Today, marking the 65th anniversary of the end of the Korean War, North Korea fulfilled its
promise to Trump to return remains of US soldiers killed in the Korean conflict. And North Korea and South Korea
both took other valuable, peace-making steps this week. In what should be a boost to US-North Korea nuclear
negotiations, North Korea began destruction of a major satellite launch and rocket engine testing site. In response,
South Korea announced plans to reduce guard posts and equipment along its border with North Korea and pledged
to consider a full-scale pullout from the DMZ. The New York Times reported: “North Korea has started dismantling a
missile-engine test site, as President Trump said the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, promised he would during their historic
summit meeting in Singapore in June.” On Monday, 38 North, a think tank closely following North Korea, called the
satellite-documented dismantlement “a significant confidence-building measure on the part of North Korea.” Joseph S.
Bermudez, Jr, an expert on North Korean weapons programs at 38 North, reported on destruction of buildings important to
testing missile engines, critical to the delivery of nuclear weapons by ICBMs (intercontinental ballistic missiles). In
addition, photos show that North Korea has also started dismantling a building where workers assemble space-launch
vehicles, which the US has also seen as linked to the North’s nuclear development. South Korea’s move reducing guard
posts and military equipment along part of the DMZ _ was described by its Defense
i Ministry as a preliminary step, with possible future expansion “to transform
the demilitarized zone into a zone of peace”. Progress in negotiations always depends on reciprocal moves. It’s likely that
North Korea is taking these helpful steps in response to Trump’s cancellation of this fall’s huge US-South Korea war games.
North Korea has always found the war games symbolic of the ongoing threat it faces from a nuclear-armed US in the
absence of a peace treaty to officially end the Korean War hostilities. The ball is now back in the US court, and two issues
will be predictably central to nuclear progress: a US-North Korea peace treaty and sanctions relief for the North
Korean economy. In the last few weeks, the US moves on these two issues have been less than helpful. Hopefully, North
Korea’s test-site demolition will encourage the US to re-look at its positions. A US-North Korea Peace Treaty: As CNN
recently pointed out, Trump and Kim in Singapore “agreed to the ‘building of a lasting and robust peace regime on the
Korean Peninsula’ including the provision of ‘security guarantees to North Korea’. his led to
an expectation in North Korea that denuclearization and the establishment of a peace treaty would both be key to reciprocal
peace-making. According to a report in Time exploring why the latest Pompeo visit to Pyongyang resulted in strong North
Korean criticism, Pyongyang's Foreign Ministry explained that “during the talks, the North raised the issue of a possible
declaration to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War, which concluded with an armistice, not a peace treaty. ... However. the
United States came up with a variety of ‘conditions and excuses’ to delay a declaration on ending the A CNN report on
Monday underscored the importance of the US moving ahead on the peace treaty issue: “Continued negotiations between
the United States and North Korea hinge on Washington’s willingness to agree to a peace treaty with Pyongyang, according
to an official with close knowledge of North Korea’s position on the matter.... Pyongyang has frequently expressed concern
that without a nuclear deterrent it could face attempted regime change or other military action by the US, particularly when
the two countries are technically at war.” Sanctions Relief for the North Korean Economy: In April, North Korea
announced a change in national policy to prioritize economic development over militarization, certainly a direction that a
peace-concerned US should be applauding and supporting. North Korea’s overall living conditions have improved in recent
Lal
years, with what a Reuters report describes as booming unofficial markets
accounting for about 60% of the economy. However, in 2017, sanctions, particularly restrictions on coal and manufacturing
exports, cut severely into economic growth. Without sanctions relief, it's going to be hard for North Korea to feel its new
economic priority is a workable approach. South [caption id="attachment_ 11443" align="alignright" width="124"]
Lal
South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-Hwal[/caption] Korea’s Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha
has focused on sanctions-relief as very important to North Korea. She stressed that South Korean reports suggested “North
Korea was preparing for disarmament in return for the lifting of economic sanctions”. Hopefully, the US will seize the
opportunity to move toward sanctions relief, even in stages, as an important reciprocal move to reward North Korean steps
toward denuclearization. So far, the US has been stubbornly pushing for full sanctions enforcement until the North fully
destroys its nuclear program. Last week Pompeo asked the UN to order a halt to petroleum imports to North Korea,
complaining of what it views as sanctions violations. Russia and China delayed this push by requesting more information on
the claimed violations. Reuters reported_that “Russia’s envoy to North Korea also said it would be logical to raise the
question of easing sanctions on North Korea with the UN Security Council.” It appears that the sanctions support of China
and Russia, North Korea’s biggest trading partners, is fading. This makes a US hard line on sanctions both unlikely to
succeed and counterproductive to a US progress in negotiations with the North. Although Trump publicly claims US-North
Korea negotiations are going well, a recent Washington Post report describes the president as impatient for faster progress.
Nuclear experts suggest it could take up to 15 years for North Korea’s well developed nuclear program to be dismantled, so
if Trump wants to push this process forward as speedily as possible, he needs to put a peace treaty and sanctions relief high
on the negotiators’ agenda.
