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Yemen: Three Lessons
By maudeaster on 2010-01-07 08:47:55
Like everyone else, I have suddenly started learning all about Yemen. What strikes me the most is powerful parallels with
our existing foreign entanglements. Lesson #1: Development is the key answer to undermining extremism in a desperately
poor country. We know from impoverished Afghanistan that the Taliban gets recruits when other jobs are not available, and
that rebuilding communities and increasing education offer not only jobs, but also increased security for women and
children. Yemen is terribly poor, with a 40% unemployment rate. Its economy is 70% dependent on oil, which is expected to
run out in 7 years, while its population is expected to double by 2035. It’s good that the US and Great Britain are talking
about increasing development aid to Yemen, but discussions are incomplete and no figures have been named -- in contrast to
Washington’s rapid action to announce more military aid. These priorities need to be reversed. Lesson #2: Collaboration
with the US military has undermined popular support for governments in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, actually weakening
their ability to stabilize their countries. The Yemen government is already facing a Shiite rebellion in the north and a
secessionist movement in the south, with little control outside the capital. The apparent US emphasis on a military
partnership —with American advisers, Special Forces and plans to more than double military aid — will undermine President
Saleh further in the eyes of his people. Instead of making the government more unpopular by increased American
intervention in its affairs, the US should encourage it to undertake serious negotiations with the resistance movements. A
political solution which recognizes the needs of resisting groups would have the positive effect of making less likely their
alliance with Al Qaeda (just as negotiations by the Afghan and Pakistani governments with the Taliban would make less
likely their allying with Al Qaeda.) Lesson # 3: The inevitable civilian casualties from US military activity are the
insurgents’ best recruiting tools. Fahima Vorgetts, the Afghan-American leader who visited the Capital District in December,
stressed the importance of family in Afghanistan and described her 92 first cousins. She pointed out that if one of them was
killed by a US raid, there would inevitably be 91 very angry people, a gift to the Taliban. There are large families and
important tribal loyalties in Yemen, too. In December, the US started down this counterproductive path with involvement in
military strikes in Yemen. Al Qaeda only has about 200 members now in Yemen, but its appeal will predictably rise if US
military activity increases. My hope for the new year is that Congress and the Obama administration will draw strong
lessons from these similarities and avoid the temptation to try to appease the right by “looking tough” — that they will pull
back from attempting military solutions to what are fundamentally economic and political problems.
