Kentucky Death Penalty
Summit
Findings from recent Kentucky and National
polling
David Mermin, Rick Johnson, and Jeff Klinger
Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY
LakeResearch.com
202.776.9066
Lake
Research
Partners
Executive Summary
*Kentuckians, by a margin of 62% to 32%, support a temporary halt to executions until the
system is fixed. After hearing a number of reasons in support of a temporary halt, support
grows to a 38 point margin.
— Support for a temporary halt is widespread. Majorities of men and women, Democrats and Republicans,
young and old, and voters living in all parts of the state support a temporary halt.
— The strongest base supporters of a halt to executions are Democrats, urban voters, and younger women.
*Top messages in favor of a temporary halt include an endorsement from a group of
experts who unanimously recommend a halt until identified problems are fixed and one
focused on the practice of destroying DNA evidence.
*Both nationally and in the South, nearly 40% of voters support a punishment of life with
no possibility of parole and a restitution requirement, given four different options. Just
one-third support the death penalty.
*Top messages among conservatives and voters in the South include a message of
unfairness and making restitution. Restitution also resonates with evangelicals and
churchgoers. However, these messages are stronger among voters in other regions and
moderates and liberals. More research could explore how to improve messaging
specifically for conservative voters.
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7 Partners
Kentuckians are divided on whether the death penalty is carried out
fairly or not. Half say it is at least mostly fair, while another 48% say it’s
mostly unfair, or they are not sure.
Is the way the death penalty is carried out fair?
50% 48%
/ 28 /
22 /
_—- 33
Fair to everyone Mostly fair, but not Mostly unfair Unsure Refuse
always
3
Now thinking about the criminal justice system and the death penalty, do you believe the way the death penalty is carried ‘—
out in Kentucky is fair to everyone, mostly fair but not always, mostly unfair, or aren't you sure? Partners
Over half (56%) of Kentucky voters believe it is at least somewhat likely
that a person in Kentucky has been wrongly sentenced to death in the
last ten years. Another 13% say they are not sure, while just 10% say it is
not likely at all.
Likelihood that a person has been wrongly sentenced to death in Kentucky?
56%
31
21
i 7 .
Certain Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely —_ Not likely at all Don't know
How likely do you think it is that a person has been wrongly or unjustly sentenced to death in Kentucky -- are you certain this has
happened in the last ten years, do you think it's very likely this has happened, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all?
Kentuckians, by nearly a 2 to 1 margin, support a temporary halt to executions in
Kentucky, including 44% who strongly support a temporary halt.
Temporary halt to executions in Kentucky?
62
(+30)
32
a
6
Support Oppose Don't know
Do you support or oppose a temporary halt to executions in Kentucky so that the system can be more closely examined and & Research
identified problems can be fixed? & = / Partners
Voters across
Kentucky support a
temporary halt to
executions. A halt is
supported by voters
from all parts of the
state, including rural
and urban areas.
Temporary Halt to Executions
Total 32 62
= Support
Urban (29%) 24 71
Suburban (18%) 29 67
Exurban (17%) 42 55
Rural (36%) 36 [55
Louisville (35%) 31 64
Lexington (18%) 27 67
West (21%) 42
East/Cincinnati (25%) 30 61
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Lake
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SP rrrters
Temporary Halt to Executions
a «
= Support
Total
Party Identification
Democrats (44%)
Voters from all Independents (17%)
partisan stripes,
Republicans (35%)
both registered
and self- Party Registration
identified,
support a halt.
Reg. Democratic men (26%)
Reg. Democratic women (32%)
Reg. Republican men (19%)
Reg. Republican women (19%)
a:
a ::
a «:
ae:
a:
Lake
& y Research
SP rrrters
Support for a temporary halt to executions increases by 5
points after voters are given information about the problems
that need to be resolved. Opposition drops to fewer than 3 in
Temporary Halt to Executions in Kentucky
Initial Ask Informed Ask
62 [+30] [+39]
Support Oppose Don't know Support Oppose Don't know
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a s Lake
Do you support or oppose a temporary halt to executions in Kentucky so that the system can be more closely examined and RR
identified problems can be fixed?
“7% Research
</ Partners
The two most convincing reasons for a halt to executions are the unanimous
recommendations of the ABA group of experts, and the fact that potentially
exonerating DNA evidence can be destroyed.
Very Total
Statements about temporarily halting executions Convincing Convincing
UNANIMOUS SUPPORT w/ ABA* The American Bar Association put together a
group of experts to study the death penalty in Kentucky. The group includes both
members who oppose the death penalty and those who support the death penalty. 50 74
After studying the facts, the group unanimously recommended temporarily
halting executions until the problems they have identified are fixed.
DESTROYED DNA In Kentucky, evidence used to convict someone of a crime can be
destroyed while that person is still in prison. This destroyed evidence has
prevented DNA analysis from potentially exonerating innocent people on death 50 74
row.
9
*Asked of half the sample. & 7
The most convincing reasons to support a temporary halt are fairly consistent
across urban, suburban and rural voters. Voters consistently are convinced by
the unanimous opinion of experts and destroyed DNA.
Statement
(% VERY CONVINCING) Urban Suburban Exurban Rural
UNANIMOUS SUPPORT w/ ABA* 49 61 53 45
DETROYED DNA 51 57 41 51
Statement Reg. Reg.
(% VERY CONVINCING) Democrats Independents Republicans Dems Reps
UNANIMOUS SUPPORT
w/ ABA* 60 60 35 52 45
DETROYED DNA 54 49 46 53 47
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*Asked of half the sample. Oj
Partners
One-third of voters both nationally and in the South support the death penalty
when given four options, compared to nearly 40% who support life in prison with
no possibility of parole and a requirement to make restitution.
Penalty for Murder
B National South
39 3g
I’m going to read four statements.
Listen carefully, then please tell me
which of them—number 1, 2, 3, or 4—is 33 32
closest to your own view:
READ/DO NOT RANDOMIZE:
1. The penalty for murder should be the
death penalty
2. The penalty for murder should be life
in prison with the possibility of parole
3. The penalty for murder should be life
in prison with no possibility of parole 9 10 11
4, The penalty for murder should be life 6
in prison with no possibility of parole,
and a requirement to work to make L.
restitution for the victim’s family
Death Penalty Life WITH Parole Life Without Parole Life Without Parole DK/Ref
& Restitution
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& Lake
“7-y Research
Darker shade =national data, lighter shade = South SP rrrters
Facts about the costs of death penalty cases raise more doubts in the South than
nationally, though voters in the South have a harder time believing that one case
can cost as much as $3 million. These voters are also less likely to believe that
80% of executions take place in the South.
National: National: South: South:
Totally Serious Totally Serious
Believable Doubts Believable Doubts
Prosecuting and defending one death penalty case can cost as much as 32 28
$3 million.
Prosecuting and defending one death penalty case can cost as much as
$3 million dollars. But because only 1 in 10 cases results in an actual
execution, the true cost to the state per execution is about $30 million 25 26
dollars, far more than the cost of a lifetime of incarceration.
Since 1973, 138 people have been released from death row after being
exonerated of their crimes. 31 22 31 22
Over the past 30 years, states in the South have accounted for 80
percent of all executions and have the highest murder rate. States in 19 22 22
the Northeast have accounted for less than 1 percent of all executions
and have the lowest murder rate.
From sentencing to execution, the average appeal time of a death
penalty case is 12 years, while a person who receives life without parole 32 16 28 17
starts serving the sentence immediately.
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Research
</ Partners
After hearing a series of facts, including some of the cost and effectiveness issues
with the death penalty, they favor replacing it with LWOP and using the money
for other things. This formulation is potentially powerful, but it will require a
large educational effort.
Replace the Death Penalty
and Use Money for Crime Prevention
65
National = South
30 31
44 43
24 5 23 5
Favor Oppose DK/Ref Favor Oppose DK/Ref
Would you favor or oppose replacing the death penalty with a penalty of life in prison with no possibility of parole if the ae
money saved were used to fund crime prevention measures? [IF FAVOR/OPPOSE ASK:] Is that strongly favor/oppose or BENS rch
somewhat favor/oppose? SP rrrters
The top message overall is the “Unfairness” message that speaks to disparities in
the system. Next is the version of the “Victims’ Families” message that includes
restitution. “Innocence” rounds out the top three. All of these themes will be
important going forward.
Very Total
Message Convincing Convincing
Unfairness - Our criminal justice system should treat all people equally, regardless of
how much money they make, where they live, or the color of their skin. In reality,
the death penalty is applied unevenly and unfairly, even for similar crimes. Some
people are sentenced to die because they couldn’t afford a better lawyer, or 37 69
because they live in a county that seeks the death penalty a lot. A system that is so
arbitrary should not be allowed to choose who lives and who dies.
Victims’ Families w/Restitution - Many victims’ family members say every time
there is a court hearing, a conviction, or an appeal, the focus is on the defendant,
but the family still has to go through their pain again and again. It's very, very hard
for the families. It reopens the wounds each time. When we condemn people to life
without parole instead, family members will not be subjected to years of court 33 69
hearings, and they can turn to the process of healing. If we replaced the death
penalty with a sentence of life without parole with labor and restitution, we could
use the money to help provide counseling services to victims’ families.
Innocence - The death penalty risks executing the innocent. Many innocent people
have been sent to our nation’s death rows before new evidence freed them and
some innocent people may have been executed. It is unacceptable to execute
innocent people, and in a system run by human beings that’s inevitable. Executing 33 7 1
innocent people is a risk we can completely avoid by using sentences of life with no
possibility of parole.
Now, I'm going to read you some statements people have made in support of replacing the death penalty with a sentence of life in
prison with no possibility of parole. Please tell me whether each statement | read is a VERY convincing, SOMEWHAT convincing, NOT
TOO convincing, or not AT ALL convincing reason to replace the death penalty with a sentence of life in prison with no possibility of 8 search
parole. If you are not sure how you feel about a particular item, please say so. Daen
14
The “Cost” and “Moral” messages are important for different reasons. “Cost” is
important for state level action, especially in lobbying efforts. Meanwhile, the
“Moral” message that emphasizes faith works well among Latinos and Catholic
voters.
Very Total
Message Convincing Convincing
Cost w/Restitution - By the time the costs of all the trials and appeals are taken into
account, the death penalty costs more than imprisoning a criminal for life. The death
penalty is a huge government program that has bogged down law enforcement and wasted
millions of dollars that could be used for many other purposes. States are cutting back on
police forces, shutting libraries and schools, and public hospitals are closing emergency 32 69
rooms, and yet we are spending millions of dollars on a death penalty system when lifetime
imprisonment with no parole would cost less. Keep these criminals in prison for life and
have them work and pay restitution to the victims’ families.
Victims’ Families - Many victims’ family members say every time there is a court hearing, a
conviction, or an appeal, the focus is on the defendant, but the family still has to go
through their pain again and again. It's very, very hard for the families. It reopens the
wounds each time. When we condemn people to life without parole instead, family 32 68
members will not be subjected to years of court hearings, and they can turn to the process
of healing.
Moral w/Faith - Human life is the most precious thing in the world, and we need to respect
it. The death penalty offers the tragic illusion that we can defend life by taking life. In
reality, the death penalty diminishes all of us. Every life has value, and sometimes even the
worst criminals can change and become better people after years in prison. Our faiths 30 59
teach us that “thou shalt not kill” and that vengeance is God’s and God’s alone. Killing is
wrong, no matter who does it.
Now, I'm going to read you some statements people have made in support of replacing the death penalty with a sentence of life in
prison with no possibility of parole. Please tell me whether each statement | read is a VERY convincing, SOMEWHAT convincing, NOT
TOO convincing, or not AT ALL convincing reason to replace the death penalty with a sentence of life in prison with no possibility of Re ot cari
parole. If you are not sure how you feel about a particular item, please say so. SP rrciners
15
The
restitution
element is
most
important
among more
conservative
audiences.
% Nery Convincing
A77.UNFAIRNESS
B78.UNFAIRNESS W/RACE
B76.MORAL W/FAITH
B69.COST W/RESTITUTION
Democrat (37%)
43%
41%
41%
40%
A77.UNFAIRNESS
A70.VICTIMS' FAMILIES W/RESTITUTION
A68.COST
72.INNOCENCE
A70.VICTIMS' FAMILIES W/RESTITUTION
72.INNOCENCE
B69.COST W/RESTITUTION
A77.UNFAIRNESS
Indep. (27%)
39%
34%
33%
32%
Republican (31%)
28%
27%
27%
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Lake
§ Research
Partners
“Unfairness” is
the highest rated
message in all
regions. “Cost”
is the next most
important in
both the South
and West.
Overall,
messaging is
more successful
in the Northeast
and Midwest
than in the
South.
% Very Convincing Northeast (19%)
A77.UNFAIRNESS 37%
B71.VICTIMS' FAMILIES 37%
72.INNOCENCE 36%
A70.VICTIMS' FAMILIES W/RESTITUTION 34%
Midwest (24%)
A77.UNFAIRNESS 42%
72.INNOCENCE 36%
A70.VICTIMS' FAMILIES W/RESTITUTION 35%
B69.COST W/RESTITUTION 35%
South (37%)
A77.UNFAIRNESS 34%
B69.COST W/RESTITUTION 33%
A70.VICTIMS' FAMILIES W/RESTITUTION 32%
72.INNOCENCE 31%
A77.UNFAIRNESS 34%
A68.COST 34%
A70.VICTIMS' FAMILIES W/RESTITUTION 33% 7
72.INNOCENCE 31% search
—y vartners
Liberal voters are
willing to accept
the “Unfairness”
argument both
with and without
explicit mentions
of race, but race
hurts the message
among moderates
and conservatives.
More research is
needed to explore
messaging that
resonates better
with
conservatives.
% Nery Convincing
A77.UNFAIRNESS
B78.UNFAIRNESS W/RACE
A68.COST
B74.NOT A DETERRENT
Liberal (24%)
46%
43%
40%
40%
A77.UNFAIRNESS
A70.VICTIMS' FAMILIES W/RESTITUTION
72.INNOCENCE
B69.COST W/RESTITUTION
Moderate (30%
37%
36%
34%
33%
)
A77.UNFAIRNESS
A70.VICTIMS' FAMILIES W/RESTITUTION
72.INNOCENCE
B76.MORAL W/FAITH
Conservative (40%)
30%
30%
30%
27%
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Lake
§ Research
Partners
Conservative
women are
more receptive
to messaging
than men, and
they react
positively to
“Innocence”
and a message
that mentions
faith.
% Nery Convincing
A77.UNFAIRNESS
A70.VICTIMS' FAMILIES W/RESTITUTION
72.INNOCENCE
B76.MORAL W/FAITH
Conservative (40%)
30%
30%
30%
27%
A70.VICTIMS' FAMILIES W/RESTITUTION
A77.UNFAIRNESS
72.INNOCENCE
A68.COST
Conservative men (20%)
30%
28%
26%
25%
72.INNOCENCE
B76.MORAL W/FAITH
B71.VICTIMS' FAMILIES
A77.UNFAIRNESS
Conservative women (20%)
33%
32%
32%
32%
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Lake
Research
Partners
Among
evangelical
voters, the faith-
based message is
not among the
top four. With
these more
conservative
voters, the
restitution
element is
important.
% Nery Convincing
A77.UNFAIRNESS
A70.VICTIMS' FAMILIES W/RESTITUTION
B69.COST W/RESTITUTION
72.INNOCENCE
A70.VICTIMS' FAMILIES WZRESTITUTION >
A77.UNFAIRNESS
72.INNOCENCE
B69.COST W/RESTITUTION
B69.COST W&RESTITUTION >
A70.VICTIMS' FAMILIES W/RESTITUTION
A77.UNFAIRNESS
72.INNOCENCE
A77.UNFAIRNESS
72.INNOCENCE
A70.VICTIMS' FAMILIES W/RESTITUTION
B76.MORAL W/FAITH
Born-again/evangelical (26%)
37%
35%
34%
33%
33%
32%
32%
30%
Freq Church Attend (59%)
34%
34%
33%
32%
Infreq Church Attend (38%
43%
36%
34%
33%
PS
)
White born-again/evang (18%)
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esearch
\/ Partners
Methodology: Kentucky and National Polling
Lake Research Partners designed and administered a survey in
Kentucky that was conducted by telephone using professional
interviewers between November 30 - December 4, 2011. The survey
reached a total of 405 likely voters in Kentucky, using a voter file
sample. The margin of error is +4.9%.
Lake Research Partners designed and administered a national survey
that was conducted by telephone using professional interviewers
May 10-16 and 23-26, 2010. The sample was stratified geographically
by region based on the proportion of voters in each region. The
margin of error is +/-2.5%.
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“7-y Research
/ Partners
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