COPY Ue Se DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Washington
December 20, 1937
Mre Floyd We Reeves
President!s Committee on
Vocational Education
Washington Auditorium
Washington, De Co
Dear Mr, Reeves:
The task of appraising employment opportunities for young
persons is essentially part and parcel of an over-all survey of em
ployment opportunities, In the case of young persons, especially,
the survey needs to be made against a background of long range trends.
I can illustrate the significance of trend rather than
short time analysis against the experience of the last 6 yeers. Dur
ing the years 1931 to 1935, it would prebably have been possible to
demonstrate over=crowding in virtually all occupations, In 1935, and
more especially in 1936, it was possible to foresee a developing
shortage of labor in certain broad industrial and occupational classi
fications. By this time a specifically directed training program was
needed but I think it mest also be realized that the period 1931-25
should have been utilized for the types of training that were going
to be called when, as and if we emerged from the depression.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been engaged for many
years in studying industrial and occupational trends. These studies
have been on too small a scale and too intermittent to be tied to-
gether into a national picture of developing and shrinking occupa=
tional opportunities. An expansion of this type of work can be under~
taken to develop the basic patterns needed for the direction of young
persons to fields of expanding opportunity. The types of study to
which I refer are those such as the Wage and Hour Division has been
making since 1907 that do give in detail the occupational composition
of the wage~earner force in selected industries, productivity studies
of various types that develop the changing total demand for lebor and
enable one to forecast the specific occupationel shifts that are to
be anticipated, and perhaps most fundamental of all, the running
analyses of employment by industry groups. If occupetional opportunity
forecasting is to be undertaken, it needs to develop gradually across
a period of years, Forecasts need to be attempted and methods of
forecasting improved at those points where the forecasts prove to
have been badly in errore By way of illustration, I should like to
point to the gradual improvement of the techniques of the Bureau of
Agricultural Economics and of their outlook forecasts, The process
of occupational opportunity analysis needs to be worked out in close
cooperation with the placement officers of the United States Employ~
ment Service and with educators engaged in vocational guidance, Such
contacts as they establish with industry ought not be duplicated
and should not be transferred to the agency engaged in analyzing the
trends and current prospects for employment. However, I think that
such an agency will have to establish numerous contacts with the
leaders of industry and labor in order that its analysis shell be
realistic and quickly sensitive to fundamental changes in processeéss
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the only agency of the
Government which is equipped to expand its present work to encompass
occupational forecasting. The responsibility of analyzing ecoromic
conditions as they affect labor imposes on this Bureau the obligation
of doing a great deal of work which is preparatory to the analysis
of occupational trends in the labor market. None of the work now
being done could be transferred to another agency to eliminate possi-
ble duplicationwhich might develop. But the Bureau is in a position to
integrate the analysis of occupational trends with its present work
at a minimum coste I believe that an initial appropriation of $50,000
would be necessary for such work. As techniques of analysis were
further developed and tested over the first 3 or 4 years, rising ex-
penditures could be advantageously assimileted. The program should
contemplate an expenditure rising to $250,000 after the first few
yearse
Very truly yours,
Isador Lubin (Signed)
Isador Lubin
Commissioner of Labor Statistics
November 8, 1951
Dear Lube:
Attached I am sending you another set of radio seripts on
Soviet Russia which contains materials the delegation might find
useful, particularly in Committees 1, 2 and 3. I shall continue
to send you this kind of material unless you tell me that you
do not find it particularly useful.
Sincerely yours,
Walter Kotschnig
Director, Office of United Nations
Economic and Social Affairs
Mr. Isador Lubin,
Adviser, U.S. Delegation to the
United Nations General Assembly,
ZAmerican Embassy,
Paris, France.
Ct? oe Fees -
et ad cake Ly be :
Dear Lube:
i was very much interseted in reading your report on the 13th Seesion
of the Economie end Social Counell dated October 18. It is an excellent
end most helpful memorandum. Unfortunetely I received it only a few deys
ago since Sandy had taken 1t by mistake to Paris,
It is my understanding thet since your memorandum wee written the
Department has made available te you and to the delegation « fair anount
of materiel on conditions in the USSR and the Satellite countries, At
the samo time I am told by Welter Kotsehnig thet mich of thet material
is spotty end that it offers little on living conditions and social
conditions. Welter is keeping an eye on the situstion and will send you
any further material as it becomes available. If there is anything
specific you want in a hurry on which the Department micht have information,
please Jet us Imows
As regerds slave labor, I em afraid thet we are still not in a
position to give you anything thet goes much beyond the materiels which
you hed in Santiago. The Department is now meking e determined effort
to obtein additional information about slave labor conditions during the
last two years end at present and will, I understand, arrange for the
interrogation of « substantial mumber of escapees, particulerly in GOrmany
Sweden end Japan, However, we do not expect any substential results from
this effort much before March or April 1952, i.e. in time for the second
mesting of the Ad Hoe Committee on Forced Labor.
Sincerely yours,
John D, liickerson
Assistant Secretary
Mr. Isador Lubin,
Adviser, United States Delegation to the
United Nations General Assembly,
Hotel Astoria,
131, Avenus des Champs-Elysees,
Paris 8°, France.
UNA: UNE: WKotschnig:mar
11/23/51
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Through:
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UNA ~ Mr. Hickerson
UNA « Mr. Bloomfield 11/23/51
UNE ~ Mr. Kotschnig
letter to Mr. Lubin
It is recommended that the attached letter to Mr. Lubin
be signed by youe The letter wes written in reply to Mr. Lubin's
memorandum of October 18 on the 13th Session of the Economic and
Social Council. This memorandum reached us from your office only
three or four days aro.
Enclosure:
As stated above.
Rio try LiL
JNA: yh: WKotschnig: mar
SEVEN THIRTY PARK AVENUE
NEW YORK 21, N. Y.
4 June 1953
Dear Walters:
This is merely a late acknowledgment of the lovely
letter you sent me some weeks agoe
The dinner was, of course, most stimulating to me.
It was good to know that there are people around who feel
that my efforts have not been in vaine
When are you leaving for Geneva? I take it you will
be coming through here. I will expect you at least to
call uSe
Aaron Horvitz was in today and told me that he has
not heard again from Chris. He had made contact with
one of oe corporations that was interested in seeing
Chris, was a bit upset because Chris had promised
to keep in touch with him.
Sincerely,
a
Isador Lubin
Mr. Walter M, Kotschnig
Department of State
2145 C Street, N. W.
Washington 25, 4. C.
108 E. Bradley Lene
Chevy Chase, Maryland
June 10, 1953
Dear Lube:
Thank you ever so much for your letter of June 4. According to
present plans, and if everything goes smoothly, I expect to leave
for Geneva by plane om June 25. However, previous to that date, I
expect to be in New York for some consultative meotings at the Mission
on June 16. While I shall be in New York only a few hours, I do hope
to get a chance to see you and Carol at that time.
I am distressed to hear that Chris appears not to have followed
up on a leed which Mr, Horvitz so kindly gave him, I called Chris
imnediately end there appears to have been some misunderstanding, 1.6.
Chris was under the impression thet Mr. Horvitz was out of town. He
has been in contact with him since. I am certainly most grateful to
you for your help and interest.
Things at the Mission and down here are still in the rough and
tumble stage. It is, however, fairly certain now that John C, Baker
will be the U.S. Representetive to the 16th Session of the Council.
This, pending appointment, is not yet public. Im addition, we are
likely to have as "public members" on the delegation: Mr, Salomon
who used to work with the Ford Foundation; Mre. Heffelfinger from
Minneapolis; and Mr. Elsbree who is an Assistant to Mr. Beker, On the
other hand, we had to out down severely on the technical staff.
With the best of good wishes both to you and Carol,
Yours as ever’,
Walter Kotsehnig
Dr. Isador Lubin,
| Seven Thirty Park Avenue,
New York 22, N.Y.
Eco.omic and Social Council
Geneva, Switzerland
July 29, 1956
Dear Lube:
This is just a brief word of greetings from Geneva
end to tell you that I am often thinking of you and our
common labors during the last three years,
This particular session of the Council has been
none too easy, as far as I am concerned. To begin with,
we have of course, as you know, a delegation rather
different than what we have had in the past, though I am
glad to be able to report that things have worked out
harmoniously and that the new members of the delegation
have thrown themselves into their work with great vim
and vigor. When word reached us of the disastrous
cuts in the Technical Assistance and UNICEF Programs
they really went to work and sent urgent telegrams to a
large number of people both in the Administration and on
the Hill. We are told that these efforts have borne
some fruit and that they helped to restore some of the
earlier cuts,
The atmosphere in the Council is very different
from wheat we have known. Everything is sweetness and
light. This has required on our part a change in tactics
and adjustments which are still going on, By and large,
however, we have been able to strengthen our position
even with some of the underdeveloped countries, particularly
India and some of the Latinos,
I hope to see you soon after my return to the States
early in September to give you a full account of what has
been going on.
With the best of good wishes to you and Carol -
I very much miss both of you -
Yours as ever,
Walter Kotschnig
Deputy United States Representative
Dr. Isador Lubin,
Seven Thirty Park Avenue,
New York 21, New York.
