ABSTRACT
May 27, 1983
N. Choucri (M.I.T.) and M. Karsky (E1f Aquitaine)
"THE WORLD OIL MARKET: TWO MODELS WITH SIMILAR POLICY ORIENTED RESULTS"
Two systems dynamics models have been independently developed, one
at MIT, the other at Elf Aquitaine. Their structure, assumptions, time
frame are different.
The International Petroleum Exchange Model (IPE) developed at MIT
is a dynamic simulation model of the world oi] market and of interactions
between producer, consumer, and international oi] companies.
The Elf Aquitaine model is based on the following assumptions:
through the stock situation, the ofl market responds
to the evolution of supply and demand
prices are determined by the spot market situation
anticipations play a fundamental role, but are much more
complex than what has been modeled up ti11 now
the long term is but an accumulation of short term situations
and reactions which, because of strong nonlinearities and high
short-term sensitivity, must be accounted for and are essential
to a good representation of both long term and short term market
behavior.
Although very different in their approach, these two models, when run
on a comparable time scale, give some similar policy oriented results con-
cerning:
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- the dynamics of oi1 consumption, production and price
- the consequences on other energy source developments (coal,
solar, ...)
The paper will deal very briefly with the model structures, and insist
rather on a comparison of some of the policy oriented results.
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