Table of Contents
Concept of modeling the influence of telematic based services on
the transport and the socio economic system by combination of an
activity-based micro-level-model and an aggregated macro-level-
model
Christoph Gringmuth
Universitat Karlsruhe (TH)
Institute for economics policy and economics research IWW
Section for traffic and communication (Prof. Dr. Werner Rothengatter)
P.O.B. 6980
D-76128 Karlsruhe
+ 49 / (0) 721/608-3073
gringmuth@iww.uni-karlsruhe.de
Designated presenter: Christoph Gringmuth
In the research project OVID “Strengthening the self organization of transport by new
information services” (http://www.ovid.uni-karlsruhe.de/) the work package A6 “System
based assessment of information services” has got the aim to assess the specific influence of
new information services on the transport system and the socio economic system in a long
term sense.
In existing models, the effects of new information services can be considered as factors in
macro-variables like e.g. technological progress, but these factors are not based on causal
models on the micro-level. On the other hand actors on micro-level are influenced by
developments on macro-level. These interrelations shall be modeled by generating a behavior
model, which models the impact of information services on micro-level. The output represents
the input for a macro-model, which calculates long term effects of information services which
backlash on actions on the micro-level.
Thus a micro-funding of long-term effects of information services is possible.
Introduction
In the Research Program “Getting a better Understanding of Mobility” The Federal Ministry
of Education and Research (BMBF) of Germany has sponsored the Research Project OVID,
which aims to deliver a better understanding of the influence of new Information
Technologies on transport. Therefore a Simulation Platform shall be built up to model and
assess measures of transport infrastructure, telematics and logistics, which have an influence
on the transport system and on the socio economic system.
This article represents the research concept of the work package A6 “system based assessment
of telematic services”. Goal of the work package A6 is to assess the specific influence of new
telematic services on the transport system and the socio economic system in a long term
sense.
The Research Project OVID (http://vwww.ovid.uni-karlsruhe.de/) started in 11/2002 and ends
in 04/2005.
Problem definition
Presently the result of the self-organization in transport systems is - from the point of view of
a social assessment - not satisfactory. The multiplicity of individual decisions results in
congestion, a high amount of health problems and strong environmental impacts. There are
three existing problems which have to be distinguished:
e Road users decide in non optimal manners because they miss important information to
obtain a complete overview of the traffic situation.
e Road users decide in non optimal manners because they miss important information
about the impact of their actions on other road users.
e Authorities decide in non optimal manners because they are unable to forecast the
impact of the institutional constraints they have to constitute.
All these problems mentioned above are caused at least in part by missing or wrong
information. In order to improve this situation information on a high quality level has to be
delivered on all levels of decision making in transport.
The information can not be reduced to on-trip-information, where the alternatives of action
are quite limited, but has to be extended even on pre-trip as on post-trip information. In the
field of freight transport the meaning of pre-trip information in a strategic sense is obvious,
because the decision for a logistic concept determines the patterns of transport activities.
While the permanent and all-embracing availability of information for the road user of
tomorrow is a concrete perspective, it is not clear how this information will be prepared in a
user specific way.
On the other hand it is obvious that the impact of new telematic services is not only reduced
to the transport system but also exists on the socio economic system. At an existing
infrastructure one positive effect of telematic services would be a smoother characteristic of
the load peak. This means that
a) less people are on the road; some decided to cancel the trip because of traffic
information
b) the same amount of people is on the road, some of the people chose another starting
time of the trip.
In a) and b) the change of trip time or amount of trips has got an influence on the remaining
activities of people, which has to be considered when the benefits of new information
technologies shall be assessed.
Aim of the project
A main goal of today’s transport research is the improvement of telematic services in a way
that existing infrastructures can be used in a more efficient way. It is necessary to focus on
¢ generating new telematic based information services,
e road user reactions on information,
e the resulting traffic conditions,
e the mid-term and long-term impacts and feedbacks on the whole socio-economic
system.
This shows that improved information has got an influence on all time horizons and on all
decision relevant levels. One problem is to build up a usable bridge between activity based
models, which work on short term time horizons and macroeconomic models, which work on
mid and long term time horizons. The aim of this project has got 2 main directions:
e Principle identification of the influence of information and services on the activities of
road users and the consequences for their daily routines an life styles.
e Assessment of the long term effects of information and services on socio economic
systems with a detailed analysis of the effects of information on freight and passenger
traffic.
Approach
Telematic services have different effects on different levels.
Direct effects on the behavior of road users
The kind of effects of information on road users is based on the following assumptions
referring to general behavior rules postulated by [Liidemann, C. 1997]. Road users plan their
actions under existing restrictions. Telematic services reduce the restrictions.
Road
user
+ Restriction
Telematic Service
‘
Reduction of
restriction
Action C
ee
Reduction of initial costs for transactions
of transport activities
Action B
Figure 1: Principle effects of telematic services in Transport systems
Figure 1 shows that the alternatives of actions in principle are growing because the
restrictions which determine actions are reduced. So the road user has new possibilities
(Action B, C) of actions which could not be considererd without telematic services.
Indirect effects by exploring new road pricing possibilities
The technical Progress in terms of better information services could allow new kinds of
controlling. It is imaginable that with new information technologies dynamic road pricing
could be realized and new steering mechanisms for the use of infrastructure can be
implemented. So the boundary conditions can be changed by new telematic services.
Influence on the four step approach
When we look at the four step approach of transport modeling, there are different levels on
which road users have to take decisions under information. These are:
Trip generation: The trip generation can be different because of increased action
alternatives. The share of trip purposes could be changed.
Trip distribution: The Trip distribution can be influenced because of new destination
alternatives.
Modal Split: The modal split could be changed by new information services because the
attributes of the elements, which constitute the modal split, can be changed. The attributes of
the traveler are not so much influenced, but the attributes of the trip like trip purpose, date of
the trip can change with more or better information. Even the attributes of the means of travel
costs, comfort or reliability can be influenced by better information through telematic
services.
First the principle influence of information and telematic services on road transport shall be
described. A model shall be built up which simulates the short term effect of information for
road users on micro-level. It shall be a qualitative model with synthetic data which shows the
basic connections between consumption, recreation, work an transport. It should be a so
called behavior-module. The results will be interpreted and used as an input for a long term
system dynamics model, which simulates long term effects of telematic services in the field of
transport and their impact on the socioeconomic system. On the basis of the behavior-module
the macro-model is based on causal correlations of the behavior-model, which represent the
impact of information.
So this approach is an extension of existing integrated system dynamic models, which are
based on an aggregated view. They are able to handle dynamic relations between transport
and transport influenced areas like Regional economics, Environment, Macroeconomics
[[IWW et al. 2000, Kuchenbecker and Rothengatter, 1998, Schade, B.,Rothengatter and
Schade W., 2000].
Until now the effects of information can be integrated as factors in macro-variables, but these
factor only can be estimated and are not based on causal models. The other way around the
development on macro-level have got an influence on the actors on micro-level.
So an extension of the existing assessment models is planned to be made in the following
way:
Generating of
a) a behavior model, which
0 calculates the impact of information on causal correlations micro-level and
b) amacro-model, which
0 calculates long term effects of information and
0 this calculation of long term effects is based on interactions between the micro-
level and the macro-level.
The combination of these two models builds the new model structure, which allows to
consider individual information-based activities in a long term macro-economic structure.
The existing combination of system dynamic macroeconomic models like ASTRA [IWW et
al. 2000] with 4-step Transport—models could be extended on information based activities of
individuals. On this way simulations could be compared, which interpret the impact of
information in an aggregated and a disaggregated way. New cognition can be made referring
to the meaning of activity based modeling for long term macroeconomic models. Effects of
self-organisation, where individuals and system conditions stand in interaction with each
other can be assessed. A first version of the behavior-model is planned for June 03.
Literature
[IWW et al. 2000] IWW, TRT, ME&P, CEBR (2000): "ASTRA - Assessment of
Transport Strategies - Final Report". Report on Behalf of the
European Commission DG VII, Karlsruhe.
[Kuchenbecker and Kuchenbecker, C. und W. Rothengatter, 1998: A System Dynamics
Rothengatter, 1998] Approach to Transport Infrastructure Planning. WCTR - Paper.
[Schade,
B.,Rothengatter and
Schade W., 2000:]
[Liidemann, C. 1997].
Karlsruhe
Schade, B.; W. Rothengatter and W. Schade, 2000: Assessment der
Verkehrsszenarien des OECD Projekts EST (Environmentally
Sustainable Transport) mit Hilfe von ESCOT (Economic assessment
of Sustainability poliCies Of Transport). Bewertung. Endbericht.
IWW, Universitat Karlsruhe.
Liidemann, C. 1997: Rationalitét und Umweltverhalten. Deutscher
Universititsverlag GmbH. Wiesbaden
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