A SYSTEM DYNAMICS VIEW OF RURAL COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT
IN INDONESIA
by:
Rislima F. Sitompul Muhammad Tasrif
Arjuno Brojonegoro Ervan Maksum
R&D Center for Applied Physics Center for Research on Energy
Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB)
J. Cisitu 21/154D Kompleks LIPI Jl. Ganesha No. 10
Bandung 40135 Indonesia Bandung 40132 Indonesia
ABSTRACT
A system dynamics approach is applied to explore sociological dynamics on rural community development of
@ traditional rural in Indonesia namely Wamena. The model is used to explain the causalities relationship of
the decision making process of rural communities in responding to the development implemented by the
government. The model consists of five main sectors : native population, migrant population, land, food, and
agricultural technology. The simulation shows that the dynamics of development pattern is greatly influenced
by the interactions of natives and migrants in market activities.
INTRODUCTION
This paper is an inception of a two-year research project on modeling rural community
development in Indonesia. Rural community development is aimed to function the technology,
in a transformation process affected by community decision-making process. It involves many
aspects which respond to the development activities. The activities usually apply sectoral
approach which are not integrated and are usually imposed by the top management not based
on the interests of the community as the development target. An alternative approach, that is,
multi-sectoral development is modeled in this research project by considering the decision
making structure of the communities.
The research project is focused on studying the rapid change of a traditional rural
transformed to a less-traditional rural as the results of transformation process in multi-
sectoral development. System dynamics methodology is applied to see how it affects the
socio-economic life of the communities, especially the impact on income distribution and
adoption of agricultural technology. As an initiation step, the model developed in this paper is
a simple one focusing the interactions of natives and migrants in market activities of food.
SYSTEM DESCRIPTION OF RURAL WAMENA
The Baliem Valley of Irian Jaya Province - where rural Wamena is located - was
discovered in 1938 occupied mostly by Dani speaking tribes [1]. The Wamena people is about
45,000 (statistics 1992) and consists of several clans who live primarily on self-subsistence.
The rural possesses about 1272 km2 of arable land. The region is highland and is still rather
isolated from the outside world. The Dani have practiced a primitive form of shifting
agriculture where the fallow period has been shortened from 15 years into 5 years, as the
consequences of the increase in food needed. They usually plant sweet potatoes for their
main food. The birth rate is relatively low, since a woman usually has 2-3 children [2]. The
men practice polygamy, especially among leaders [3]. Their native characters could be
identified from their way of life, which is simple and have not too many wishes. For instance,
4G
they do farming only for the primary needs no matter that they could have produced more.
Although they have already practiced market activities, yet, barter trade is still exist.
Changes have been introduced not only by missionaries but also by the government
firstly establishing a station in 1956 [1]. They introduce agricultural technologies like rice
planting, extensification and intensification. They also give counseling, training, moral lessons
which somehow have been effective in eliminating some harmful habits like clan-wars.
Although the people is quite adaptive to the new things introduced [2], however, at the
beginning, natives were suspicious and did not welcome the outside people. Years after the
migration flow started, a new civilization began to show up. Their traditional manners have
been changed to be more industrial. The development has shown its impacts as seen from the
interactions between natives and migration people in economic activities.
Migration people mostly come for business. They become traders or work at public
service sector like transportation. Positive interaction with natives is in market activities where
the natives gain the market share by selling their farm production to traders. This interaction
has made natives exposed to market economy.
THE MODEL
The model employed in this first step of the study is a generic system dynamics model.
The model structure was inspired by the models developed by Shantzis and Behrens [4] and
Saeed [5]. It consists of five main sectors, i.e., native population, migrant population, land,
food, and agricultural technology as shown in Figure 1. Simulation starts at the stipulated time
of the migration intervention. The model is proposed to acquire the understanding of the
long-run behavior of the natives responding to the intervention of migrants.
The population is divided into natives and migration people. Migration is assumed as
exogenous variable. Native population change rate is influenced by food availability for natives
and intensity of cultivation, as shown in Figure 1. It is assumed that frequent cultivation
would bring pressures for fighting to get food, which then could reduce the native population.
Land sector is focused in the study since 86% of population live in rural areas and earn
from agriculture. The migration flow decreases the arable land since the land is used for
industrial and housing purposes. The larger the arable land, the more the food production as
the result of increasing yield-per-hectare. This is followed by increase in food supply for
migrants allowing the natives to advance the adoption of agricultural technology.
Interactions with other communities regarding transaction process have made the
natives become acquainted with outside world. Natives involvement in market activities is
their market share to supply part of the food needed by migrants. Increase in market share of
natives will raise the income which in turn will accelerate the adoption level of agricultural
technology. Increase in population will increase food needed which then will accelerate the
intensity of cultivation. This more frequent cultivation reduces yield per hectare.
Figure 2 shows that more involvement of natives in the economic activities of migrants
could improve the population pattern. This involvement would save the population from the
fast extinction at year 200. However, arable land decreased by migration move down
relatively slow. Food availability figures could also be improved by market activities of
natives as shown in Figure 3. The more food that the natives could sell, the income is raised
allowing the natives to accelerate the adoption of agricultural technology. Intensity of
cultivation is increased significantly as the natives are more active in market activities, since
the market requires more food to distribute (Figure 4). Although yield per hectare
degenerates as the intensity increases, however, involvement of natives in market activities
and with the adoption of technology could aay, the yield-per-hectare as shown in Figure 5.
& \t
Migrants
‘ae a
Market share Food needed
of natives for migrants Arable land
+
+ Food needed
for migrants
from native
production
=
+
Food need SS Food needed.
Native Food availability Intensity
population + of natives of cultivation
Agricultural Yield
technology Naver hectare
+
Food supply 9+ Food
for natives ‘production
for migrants}
Figure 1. Causal-loop diagram of the Model
CONCLUSION
1. Interactions between natives and migration people within market activities are important in
developing the model since they significantly influence the whole model structures.
2. Involvement of natives in economic activities of migrants by supplying them part of their
food needed would improve the population pattern and increase food availability of
natives. These activities allow the natives to gain more income to afford for food, and to
accelerate the adoption of agricultural technology.
3. The study shows that the adoption of agricultural technology through natives involvement
in modern economic activities could be critical-paths in socio-economic development of
natives.
REFERENCES
1. Nazif, Amru H. 1989. Social Aspects of Rural Development in Wamena, Irian Jaya. Paper presented at
Regional Seminar on Technology for Rural Development. 23-24 October 1989. Bandung, Indonesia.
2. Savitri Dyah. 1990. “Mengenal Masyarakat Dani Baliem Pegunungan Jayawijaya Irian Jaya”, in
Prosiding Seminar Pengembangan Wilayah Pedesaan Wamena. LIPI. Subang, Indonesia.
3. Hayward, Douglas. 1980. The Dani of Irian Jaya Before and After Conversion. The Region Press
Sentani. Irian Jaya, Indonesia.
4. Steven B. Shantzis and William W. Behrens III. 1973. “Population Control Mechanisms in a Primitive
Agricultural Society”, in Toward Global Equilibrium : Collected Papers. Wright-Allen Press, Inc.
Cambridge, Massachusetts.
5. Khalid Saeed. 1991. “A Re-Evaluation of the Effort to Alleviate Poverty and Hunger” in Toward
Sustainable Development : Essays on System Analysis of National Policy. Progressive Publishers.
Pakistan. uy q S
bh
o Thovsend humane
140
Arable land 1127.5
120
108 127
80
60 126.5
40 N-base
Migrants 126
20 .
i) x 4 4 + 125.5
0 60 100 160 200 260 300 360 400 450 500
Year
Figure 2. Population and arable tand
0.3 ~ oon
0.25 Base:
“ Food 100%
0.2
0 60 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Year
Figure 4. Intensity of cultivation
Ww Food 100%
1
0.9 ¢
Ks
Food 50% |
0.8 °
f
o7 Base
0.6
os f L A fi : L A
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Year
Figure 3, Food availability
4.Million calories/nectare/year
Food 100%
0 50 100 150 200 260 300
Year
350 400 450 600
Figure 5, Yield per hectare
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