Towards a shared systems model of stakeholders in tourism
development in the Cat Ba biosphere reserve of Vietnam
Thanh Van Mai Bosch OJ .H, and Maani E.Kambiz
School of Agriculture and Food Sciences
The University of Queensland, QLD 4343, Australia
Tel: +61 7 5460 1693; email address: thanh.mai@ uqconnect.edu.au
Abstract
Tourism is a dynamic and complex system which involves various stakeholders, each with
different understandings of a system and holding different management objectives. These
different expectations result in unforeseen conflicts among stakeholders that could
negatively affect the development of tourism. This paper describes a participatory systems
approach to develop a shared understanding amongst stakeholders of the tourism system in
the UNESCO designated Cat Ba Biosphere Reserve in Vietnam.
The process includes the development of a systems model that represents a holistic
understanding of the interconnectedness and relationships between the various components
that impact on sustainable development of tourism in the biosphere. The model is intended
for use as a framework for decision making and capacity development by government and
private stakeholders who share the responsibility of developing, managing and sustaining
the system.
Key words: sustainable tourism, systems thinking, complexity, system dynamics, biosphere
reserve
1. Introduction
In recent years, tourism has become the largest and fastest growing sector of the world
economy . It is therefore seen as one of the main instruments for enhancing regional
development in many countries as it generates opportunities for employment, gross income
and also stimulates the demand for local products and industries .
Despite the many obvious advantages, tourism can also have negative impacts on the
environment and society that may pose threats to the sustainability of the region .
Therefore, sustainable tourism development has become a critically important topic and has
been receiving increasing attention from the world community. This is especially true for
Islands which are often perceived to mean “paradise” to many people and therefore attract
and motivate them to seek an “island experience” during their travels . This study has been
conducted in the Cat Ba Biosphere Reserve (CBBR) in Vietnam, which is a highly
preferred tourist destination, but also has significant environmental and social problems.
The study is part of a Pilot Project to establish biosphere reserves as ‘Learning Laboratories
for Sustainable Development’ .
A tourism destination is a highly dynamic and complex system, comprising many
interdependent components and involving a diverse array of stakeholders , each of whom
holds different management objectives that could result in unforeseen conflicts among
stakeholders. These differences in the perceptions of different stakeholders of the tourism
system and how they should be managed are of significant importance. Stakeholders all
have different mental models of the components of the system as a whole and how these
components interact. Capturing these can significantly help to develop a_ better
understanding of the system as a whole. More importantly, such a process should result in a
shared understanding, which will only be possible if all stakeholders are involved in the
process . Developing a systems model that incorporates and reflects the different mental
models of stakeholders will not only develop a shared understanding of the system, but also
assist in defining the root causes of complex problems, rather than merely treating the
symptoms.
This paper focuses on the integration of the different mental models of stakeholders on
tourism development through the structuring of these models into a conceptual model of the
tourism system on Cat Ba island. It illustrates how this conceptual model can be analysed
and used for the identification of leverage points for systemic interventions that are
required to develop a sustainable tourism industry on the CBBR.
2. Background of tourism development in the Cat Ba Biosphere Reserve
Cat Ba is the largest Island of the Cat Ba Archipelago, which belongs to Hai Phong City,
situated in the north of Vietnam. The Island is identified as one of the areas of highest
biodiversity importance in the country. It has great historical and cultural advantages and
is recognized as having a high priority for global conservation .
In 2004 UNESCO designated Cat Ba as one of the world’s biosphere reserves which covers
most of the Ca Ba Archipelago . The unique features of the Island have made it become a
much sought after tourist destination. The number of tourists to the Island has dramtically
increased over the years (Table 1), and the tourism sector has become the largest
contributor to the local economy .
Table 1: Tourism Development in the Cat Ba Biosphere Reserve (1,000 tourists)
Number of Tourists | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010
International Tourists | 60.5 | 118 122 171 224 | 250 | 286.2 | 303.5
Domestic Tourists 189.5 | 210 313 329 505 510 | 7188 | 823
Total 250 328 | 435 | 500 | 729 760 | 1,005 | 1,126.5
Source: Department of Tourism, Culture and Sport of Cat Hai District, 2010
The management of tourism in the CBBR involves a diverse range of public and private
stakeholders, such as tourism operators, local communities, local authorities, and the Cat
Ba National Park, each of which have varying sets of needs and expectations towards
tourism development in the region.
Tourism operators depend on the natural and cultural heritage resources of the region and
therefore put emphasis on the availability of tourism facilities and services. Their main
concems are long-term growth, profitability and new business opportunities, while the local
authorities desires to optimise utilization of the resources where jobs are created and the
resources protected. Local residents who pay the costs associated with tourism development
are more interested in employment opportunities, security or improvement of their lifestyle
and the cost of living in the region. Management of the Cat Ba National Park emphasises a
reduction of the impact of tourism on the natural environment.
The different needs and expectations between stakeholders increase the challenges of
achieving the sustainable management of tourism in the Cat Ba region. The complexity
involved in the development of a sustainable tourism industry under these conditions
justifies the use of a systems approach to develop a shared understanding and to minimise
conflicts of interest amongst various stakeholders in the system.
3. Conceptual model of the tourism system in the CBBR
3.1. Model development process
The development of a conceptual model was mainly based on qualitative descriptions of the
mental models of different stakeholders. The process included two main stages. In the first
stage, a preliminary conceptual model was developed from an extensive review of literature
and integrating and structuring the mental models of different stakeholders on how they
perceive the different components and interactions between the different variables in the
system. In this stage, in-depth interviews and focus group discussions (FGDs) were
conducted with a wide range of relevant stakeholders to explore their mental models. In the
second stage, a stakeholder workshop was conducted to refine and validate the preliminary
systems model.
One week prior to the workshop, the preliminary systems model, a questionnaire and a
summary of how the model was constructed were sent to twenty-five participants, who had
been involved in the FGDs and in-depth interviews. The questionnaire had three questions
aiming to seek participants’ expert knowledge to:
e amend the links between variables in the model based on their own opinion;
e add variables, which were not included in the preliminary model, as well as to
indicate the reason why they added these variables to the model, and
e prioritize the three most important variables according to their opinion.
Nineteen questionnaires were retumed, a response rate exceeding the 75 percent which has
been regarded as acceptable for a mail questionnaire. The answers to these questions
assisted in determining which factors were to be incorporated into the final model.
The twenty five selected participants were then formally invited to attend the stakeholder
workshop. The participants represented local government agencies, tourism operators,
commune leaders, and local residents, who were all actively engaged in tourism activities.
The workshop was used to develop a better understanding of the concept of systems
thinking and to discuss the development of the conceptual model of the tourism system. To
facilitate this session, the preliminary model was copied onto a large sheet of paper and
posted on the wall where the workshop took place. The preliminary model was relatively
simple and did not reflect a comprehensive picture of tourism in the region at this stage.
However, it served as an important starting point for brainstorming by the workshop
participants.
The participants were encouraged to make changes to the model based on their discussions
by removing or adding variables on a piece of paper. The participants were also asked to
identify relationships between the variables by drawing an arrow between each pair of
related variables. To generate a direct arrow, they were guided to place at the head of the
arrow a positive (+) sign for an increase and a negative (-) for a decrease. This process
resulted in a first draft causal loop diagram (CLD). In addition, with the assistance of the
research team, several feedback loops were initially identified. At the end of the group
model-building exercise, there was a general consensus that this model was a fair
representation of the shared views of the various stakeholders. The first draft CLD was
developed further by adding new variables and links as well identifying the feedback loops.
3.2. Conceptual Model of the tourism system of the CBBR
The final conceptual model presented in Figure 1 provides a fair idea of the integration of
the mental models that were shared and integrated by the relevant stakeholders on tourism
development in the CBBR. The model building process was a significant exercise for the
participants who considered the discussion groups, individual interviews and workshop as a
forum for them to present their ideas. There was a clear feeling amongst the stakeholders
that their experiences and knowledge were regarded as valuable. They could directly
experience the addition of many variables and removal of others from the model they have
helped to create, and the stakeholders took strong ownership of the model.
4
& facility Number of
+
nn es —
Infrastruture —— oe ()
+ tourists
Y"Wastet———_
i Land required P (up Resident
Empoloyment for tourism Pollution population
opportunity
Wealth of B6
local people : . ps + +H py
Employment Conservation and + Social Total
pportunity for local agricultural land ees issues population
le of Cat Ba Island_-
4
+
Fresh water
consumption
Assess to
TE age, Guta
Agricultural Availability of
Production “S———~—SCSCSCSnderground water
Student
population
Figure 1; Conceptual Model of the Tourism System in the CBBR
Legend: + (same direction), - (opposite direction), /(delay), R (reinforcing loop), B (balancing loop)
The model explains the sources of dynamism and complexity that have given rise to Cat
Ba’s predicament. This dynamic and complex systems model shows that relationships
between the key variables are not linear, but have cause-effect relationships. The model
comprises many components, which concem many different tourism-related aspects, such
as pollution, immigration, wealth of the local people, and the limitation of natural resources
(particularly fresh water and land). These aspects can be grouped into three major
categories, including the economics of tourism; natural resources and environment; and
socio-demographical issues. These are illustrated in different colours in Figure 1. The red
arrows link the economic variables, forming the economic component of tourism; the blue
arrows connect environment variables, while the pink arrows link socio-demographical
variables, representing the socio-demographical component of the tourism model.
The systems model and especially the process of its development have helped the
stakeholders to better understand each other’s mental models, as well as the long term
effects and complexities involved in the sustainable development of tourism in the
biosphere reserve. The systems model is particularly useful to illustrate and understand the
‘bigger picture” of tourism in the CBBR and how the factors affecting the system are not
isolated and independent, but are dynamically linked. It illustrates how the different factors
cause growth or decline in each other as well as in other key areas of the system.
The model can therefore be used as a platform for dialogue, communication, collaboration
and decision making between relevant stakeholders in the region. This makes the model a
potentially powerful tool for policy makers and practitioners, who are sharing the
responsibility of managing and sustaining the system. This is of particular importance in
the current tourism context of the CBBR, where a lack of a shared vision and coordination
between stakeholders has been identified as key obstacles in sustainable tourism
management.
The model also enables the identification of feedback loops, which could either be
reinforcing (R) or balancing loops (B). Reinforcing loops are positive feedbacks that
represent actions that are repeatedly affecting each other so as to continuously grow or
decline, while balancing loops (negative feedbacks) seek stability and help in controlling
the system to return to normal or working against a reinforcing loop . These loops play a
significant role in the systems analysis by helping to identify driver or growing engines and
inhibitors or barriers to the tourism system. In addition, they are particularly important for
the identification of leverage points (see section 5) in the system that can help managers to
address the root causes of problems. This will enable them to devise appropriate
intervention strategies that can help in achieving sustainable tourism in the CBBR.
4. Analysis of the conceptual tourism model
Identification of feedback loops provided a valuable basis for analysing the links in the
conceptual model of tourism . Eleven feedback loops were identified from the model,
including five reinforcing loops (R1-R5) and six balancing loops (B1-B6) as shown in
Figure 1. The following sections discuss each of these loops in details.
4.2. | The Tourism Growth F eedback Loop (R1)
The starting point for analysis of the tourism system of the CBBR is the central tourism
growth loop R1 (included in Figure 1 and separated as in Figure 2 for ease of observation).
This loop links the following variables of Number of tourists, investment, infrastructure
and facility, and attractiveness of Cat Ba Island. This is a simple reinforcing loop that
portrays the drivers behind the exponential tourism growth on the Island in the last few
decades.
The important role of loop R1 is illustrating the attractiveness of the Island through the
provision of tourism-related facilities and infrastructures. A possible starting point for this
loop is the ‘number of tourists’. As the rapid tourism growth in the biosphere in the last
decade has resulted in a large amount of tourism revenue, government and private sectors
have been encouraged to invest in developing tourism related-facilities and infrastructures
on the island to accommodate the growing demand. Part of this is the roads network,
including the main road that goes through the island that has been built to connect different
communes and tourist attractions.
es
eS Investment. Sates |
Infrastruture Number of
& facility tourists
NS +
: /
Attractiveness
of Cat Ba Island
Figure 2: Tourism Growth Loop (R1)
Furthermore, many tourist resorts and recreational facilities have been constructed and
transport facilities have been improved in both quantity and quality. The improvement of
facilities and infrastructures has created a more comfortable environment leading to
attracting more tourists to the island.
It is clear that in the R1 loop, the attractiveness of Cat Ba Island acts as the most important
driver for tourism growth that encourages people to visit and spend time at the island .
Vengesayi also pointed out that the more a destination is able to meet the needs of tourists,
the more attractive it is perceived to be. The result is that such a destination is more likely
to be considered and chosen in making a decision on where to travel .
If only the R1 loop existed in the system, the tourism industry would rapidly reach its
objective of increasing the number of tourists. However, there are many loops in the system
that would limit the growth of the R1. It is therefore important to investigate the role of the
other (balancing) feedback loops in order to obtain insights into the dynamics of the
tourism system.
4.3. Pollution Feedback Loops (B1 & B2)
There are two important balancing loops highlighted in Figure 3 that explain the long term
effects of tourism development on the environment and attractiveness of a tourist
destination. These loops include B1 (number of tourists, investment, tourism infrastructure
and facility, waste, population, and attractiveness of Cat Ba Island); and B2 (number of
tourists, waste, pollution, and attractiveness of Cat Ba Island).
Starting with ‘number of tourists’, it is clear that the increased number of facilities will lead
to an increase in the amount of waste (solid and liquid) being generated by hotels and
restaurants to be discharged into the environment. In addition, the increased numbers of
tourists also generate more litter from their recreational activities.
7
+ Investment
Infrastruture Number of
& facility ae he tourists
*attrac tiveness
of Cat Ba Island
Figure 3: Pollution Loops (B1 & B2)
Another indirect source of pollution is due to the concentration of tourist numbers in the
peak season (summer), which will lead to an over exploitation of the limited underground
water resources. A lack of a fresh water supply has already led to many hotels having had
to drill their own bore wells, leading to salt-water intrusions along the coast of Cat Ba bay.
Other pollution factors include traffic pollution and congestion, and sanitation problems.
The increasing number of vehicles, both in marine and terrestrial areas, does not only
generate more waste, but also increase oil leaks and CO2 emissions on the island.
Inappropriate landfill and the unavailability of a sewage treatment plant to accommodate a
large amount of solid and liquid waste that are generated daily by hotels, restaurants and
other tourism facilities, are critical issues for the environment. It is expected that more
pollutants will continue to be discharged into the biosphere while environmental
degradation will continue to increase due to lack of appropriate waste treatment plants and
waste disposal facilities. Furthermore, this accumulation of waste will reduce the
attractiveness of the island and subsequently reducing the number of tourist to the island.
Therefore, the B1 and B2 balancing loops are critical feedback loops that will counteract
the growth of tourism on the island.
4.4. Immigration and Employment (B3 & B4)
Two other balancing loops (B3 and B4) are presented in Figure 4. Loop B3 is indicated by
the number of tourists, social issues, and attractiveness of the Cat Ba Island while B4 shows
that an increase in the number of tourists and infrastructures and facilities, will impact on
employment opportunities, which in turn increases temporary immigration that could lead
to negative social issues that will be detrimental to the attractiveness of Cat Ba Island.
Similar to the B1 and B2 loops, the B3 and B4 balancing loops also play an important role
in controlling tourism growth on the island.
yer os
Infrastruture Number
& [ i = of tourists
Waste
a |
G; “
Pollution
Empoloyment
opportunity
+
Attractiveness of w) issues
Cat Ba Island |
Temporary
+ immigration
Figure 4: Immigration and Employment Loop (B3 & B4)
The rapid tourism development has brought more development to Cat Ba town as well as
increasing the disparity between the town and other areas on the island. A wide range of
employment opportunities has been generated through the various tourism related services,
which attract a large number of people from rural areas to migrate temporarily to Cat Ba
town seeking better livelihoods.
There is no doubt that temporary migration has improved the living standards of the very
many poor families in the Cat Hai District and other adjacent areas. In the case of unskilled
labourers, migration has helped to improve their food security, access to finance for
agricultural activities and accumulation of minimal assets, which help them to offset the
high costs of their children’s education and living expenses. On the other hand, the
existence of migrants and tourists has created many social issues on the island such as
drugs, crime and prostitution. These factors could ultimately affect the image and
reputation of Cat Ba negatively and start reducing the number of tourists to the island.
4.5. Limitation of Natural Resources F eedback Loops (B5& B6)
Both B5 and B5 are balancing loops. B6 describes how the number of tourists affects
infrastructure and facilities, which in tum will put a demand on available land for tourism
to the detriment of the natural beauty of the island and its attractiveness to tourists (Figure
5). The fresh water loop B6 depicts how the number of tourists, the island’s population and
immigration to the Island are interlinked with fresh water consumption and availability of
9
underground water. These loops describe the effects of scarce resources, particularly land
and fresh water, on tourism development on the island.
+
—ie Se
i
Infrastruture & oo Number ot
facility a pe ris
Waste
7 Resident
4 population
+
Hiponphal and rested Pollution
opportunity
54
: Total
B6 , to) postition
Conservation and Altractiveness of ocial issues
agricultural land CatBatslnd
+
‘Natural beauty
ie
Fresh water
consumption
Availability of
underground water
Figure 5: Fresh Water and Land Use Balancing Loops (B5 & B6)
The rapid development of tourism in the CBBR over the last few decades has required
more land for expansion of tourism-related facilities and infrastructures. The physical
development of these facilities has created negative impacts on the environment. The most
prominent of these are large areas of agricultural and conservation land that have been
cleared to build the main road that runs through the island and the construction of other
recreation facilities such as tourist resorts and resettling areas for local people.
It is expected that a large area of land will be required to build golf courses and recreational
resorts which can only be constructed on former agricultural and conservation lands. These
developments will result in a further reduction of the natural beauty of the island. In
addition, it will have long term effects on the availability of underground water, because of
the change in land covers. This all makes the availability of land a critical factor that could
limit the growth of tourism growth on Cat Ba Island.
A shortage of fresh water has been identified as an important factor that will limit the
growth of tourism on the island. As previously mentioned Cat Ba Island relies almost
entirely on underground water (about 95%). The water consumption varies and depends on
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the number of tourists that visit the Island. The water source only meets about 35-40% of
the needs of the tourism industry during the peak season. This freshwater constraint has
already been demonstrated by several incidences where tours to the Island had to be
cancelled due to this issue.
The effects of the balancing loops in Figure 5 will finally reduce the attractiveness of Cat
Ba Island due to a decrease in the number of tourists to the island. Thus these loops will
control the reinforcing loop R1.
4.6. Poverty Reduction F eedback Loops (R2 & R3)
Two further reinforcing loops are operating in the system namely R2 and R3, which
describe the effects of tourist numbers that are increasing the need for infrastructure and
tourism facilities and therefore increase employment opportunities for the local people (e.g.
construction of hotels, various tourism-related activities, small businesses and home stays).
These could contribute to poverty reduction of the local people (Figure 6).
The improvement of infrastructure and tourism facilities, such as road systems and public
facilities lead to increases in value of local products, as they enabled the local people to
sell their products. This could contribute to alleviate the poverty of local people. In
addition, the improvement of infrastructure and tourism facilities stimulates other social,
cultural and educational activities, which will in turn increase awareness of the local
people. As a result, the wealth of the local people is improved, and this will lead to a
reduction in illegal forest exploitation activities, thereby maintaining or restoring the
natural beauty of the island.
Loops R2 and R3 also indicate that tourism development and poverty reduction are
opposite linked. In order to ensure a sustainable tourism system on the island, local poverty
will need to be reduced. Therefore, in loop R2 and R3, the poverty variable plays a critical
important role for sustainable tourism development on the Island.
11
Investment =<
a in
Infrastruture ‘¢ of
tourists
Resident
a @& i population
.
+ +
+ Total
Social population
+
se of
CatBalsland
Empoloyment
a (R3 opportunity
Wealth of j
local people
al
Employment
opportunity for local
people
Conservation and
agricultural land
legal forest,
exploitaion
+
Fresh water
Temporary consumption
+ immigration
Availability of
underground water
Figure 6: Employment and Poverty Loop (R2 and R3)
4.7, Population and Poverty F eedback Loops (R4 and R5)
Finally, the remaining two reinforcing loops, namely R4 and R5 (highlighted in Figure 7),
are concemed with the effects of tourism development on social demography, and
environmental attractiveness of the Island. Since the availability of underground water
primarily relies on the number of tourists, increasing tourist numbers to the Island would
lead to less water availability for agriculture. Reducing agricultural land is another factor
that contributes in reducing agricultural production that poses a negative effect on the
wealth levels of local people. As a result, it pushes local residents to exploit forests illegally
in order to make a living. These activities include illegal hunting (even threatened species),
cutting timber, collecting non-timber forest products and illegal fishing inside and around
the Cat Ba National Park, an increase in the number of deliberate fires (used in the
collection of natural honey) and the extent of deforestation. When the livelihood of local
people improves, there will be a reduction in these illegal activities. This will undoubtedly
contribute to healthier and conserved ecosystems and a more attractive Island.
The quality of and access to education are also affected by temporary immigration, living
costs, and infrastructures with long-term effects on local poverty levels. This loop is thus a
reinforcing, which shows the interrelationships between the population, poverty and
tourism development.
12
+
Resident
oy & cm
:
Pollution
7
2 +
+
Empoloyment
+ Ra A opportunity
Wealth of
for tourism
local people 4 Total
Conservation and G; Sopaati!
agricultural land Attractiveness of Social f
+ Cat Balsland
+
Employment
Natural
Illegal forest, beauty
exploitaion Ba fe
Fresh water
pp Assess to
consumption
Living —p>
Bb education
Temporary
immigration
‘Agricultural Availabilty of =
Production underground water
+
Figure 7: Population and Poverty Loops (R4 and R5)
5. Leverage Points and Intervention Strategies
The concept of “leverage points” was first mentioned by Archimedes (287-212 BC) in his
famous quote: "Give me a place to stand, and I shall move the earth with a lever” . This
statement demonstrates the power of a leverage point that exists in any complex system,
such as a living body, an ecosystem or a socio-economic system. Meadows pointed out
that “the leverage points are places within a complex system where a small shift in one
item can produce big changes in everything”. She further stated that “the leverage points
are points of power and are the right places to intervene in a system”.
Although the importance of leverage points to system analysis has been alluded to, they are
not easy to identify, because “/everage points are not intuitive” . However, they can be
identified by using systems thinking and modelling . Once a conceptual model or causal
loop diagram of a system is developed and validated, it would normally reveal the causal
relationships between issues, and then enable the identification of common patterns in the
system, known as “system archetypes”.
System archetypes are generic systems models or templates that represent a wide range of
situations. They provide high-level maps of dynamic processes and are highly effective
tools for gaining insight into patterns of behaviour of the system being studied . The
archetypes also provide good indications of where the potential leverage points in the
system are . The identification of leverage points can therefore be facilitated in conjunction
with the identification of system archetypes.
13
In the case of tourism in the CBBR, there are three major system archetypes that were
identified including the “Limits to Growth”, “Fixes that Fail’, and “Tragedy of the
Commons”. These archetypes provide a high level ‘story’ which capture the key dynamics
of the tourism system and help to understand the interconnectedness and relationships
within and between the components of the tourism system. The following sections will
analyse these archetypes and their implication in formulating interventions for tourism
development in the biosphere reserve.
5.1. Limit to Growth Archetype
“Limit to growth” was first introduced by Meadows who stated that a reinforcing process
of accelerating growth (or expansion) will always be counteracted (or pushed back) by a
balancing process. This is known as a limiting (or constraining) force in the system. The
generic structure of the limit to growth archetype consists of one reinforcing and one
balancing loop as illustrated in Figure 8.
Carrying
capacity
—_ as
Tourism Number B of Cat Ba Island
x ) ay,
Figure 8; Limit to Growth
The lesson learned from this archetype is that some element always pushes the system
back, so that if we do not plan for limits, we are planning for failure . In order to anticipate
future problems and eliminate them before they become a threat, the growth engines and
potential limiting or constraining forces need to be identified and mapped out. This implies
that in the limit to growth archetype, the leverage point is not only placed in reinforcing
loop, but also in the balancing one. This reminds managers that they should not only focus
on the growth engine factors, but also take time to examine what might be limits or
constraints that could push back against their efforts.
In the tourism context of the CBBR, most of the tourism policies and planning programs
have so far been focused on the growth engine to attract more tourists to the island, rather
than the constraints or negative impacts of tourism. In other words, the reinforcing process
of growth through massive building programs of tourism infrastructure and facilities (e.g.
14
roads, luxury hotels, and recreational facilities) has received a lot of attention, without
recognising the constraints, such as pollution, environmental degradation and poor service
quality. These constraints are a significant threat to the sustainability of tourism in the
CBBR.
5.2. Fixes that Fail Archetype
This archetype represents a situation in which unintended and often harmful consequences
follow well-intended actions . Similar to the ‘limit to growth’ archetype, ‘fixes that fail’ is
also composed of one reinforcing loop and a balancing loop (Figure 9).
The archetype is a good reflection of reductionist thinking that leads to a continuing
worsening scenario. The initial problem becomes exposed as a symptom, which through
reductionist thinking will only require a quick-fix or short-term solution from managers.
Results will be achieved faster and initially appear to cost less to achieve . As a result, the
problem symptom is temporarily diminished or removed in the short term but the quick fix
solution can have unintended consequences that in the long-term may retum to the
previous level or even exacerbate the problems.
The “fix that fail” archetype exists in the tourism system of the CBBR where the increasing
tourist numbers have created a high pressure on tourism services. Much of the tourism
infrastructure and facilities, such as hotels, restaurants and means of transportation have
been established as a response to the pressure. However, these quick-response solutions
have created unintended consequences that would increase environmental degradation, less
resources becoming available for development and resulting in an acceleration of the
pressure on demands.
This approach will ultimately create negative effects on the tourism industry such as
pollution and social issues, which will make Cat Ba Island less attractive and will result in
reduced number of tourists. Obviously, such decisions carry long and short-term
consequences, and the two are often diametrically opposed, since they focus on identifying
and removing the fundamental cause of the symptom problem. If a temporary, short-term
solution is needed, developing a two tier approach simultaneously would be useful. That is,
while a short-term fix is applied, planning should be continuing to find a fundamental long-
term solution.
15
Increasing no.
of tourists
+
+
Tourism
Pressure on tourism Ae) facilitty
facility and catering
R
Available resource te) of
for development Environmental
—— degaradation
Figure 9: Fixes that Fail
5.3. Tragedy of the Commons Archetype
The tragedy of the commons archetype is very common in our daily lives. Hardin describes
tragedy of the commons as what happens to common resources as a result of human greed.
The core intention of this term is to demonstrate a situation where a single player gains the
benefits, while the consequences of actions are shared among a larger group of people. The
root cause that creates this tragedy is typically economies of scale. Everyone wants to
maximise returns from the common resources, and people will tend to take actions that in
the long term damages interests of the whole group. Therefore, the “tragedy of the
commons” archetype is truly a tragedy.
In the Cat Ba biosphere reserve, the tragedy commons archetype is happening in many
beautiful places where most of the attractions for tourists on the Island are found, such as
Cat Ba, Ben Beo, and Lan Ha bay. These areas receive thousands of tourist everyday that
require a large amount of services to accommodate their demands. Each tourism operator
tries to consume more of the common resources on the island to gain maximum retums as
shown by the two reinforcing loop R1 and R2 in figure 10. However, as there is insufficient
space, these tourism sites are unable to accommodate the increase in demand for tourism
facilities (e.g tourism boats, floating restaurants), and local interest such as floating farms.
This makes it inconvenient for everyone and their income starts to fall as shown by the two
16
balancing loops B1 and B2. The environment will also start to further degrade due to
increased pollution, and the negative effect on biodiversity.
fy
Tourism Net gain from
operator A (Rip tourism business
ee Limited
resources
wy
+
Total service tl ea Demand for new
ativities il ~ quality of services
+
)
a
. t
Tourism R2 Net gain from
operator B tourism bussiness.
Figure 10: Tragedy of the Commons Archetype
The ‘tragedy of the common’ archetype can be addressed in many ways. While the tourism
operators on the island continue to think and behave as if there are limited connections
between the systems they are operating in that will affect their ability to meet their
respective goals and objectives, the problems will remain. Public education is needed to
raise an awareness of the “bigger picture” amongst all stakeholders on the island who share
common resources for their businesses. At the same time, policies and regulations that will
enable people to create a form of self-regulation need to be introduced. This could only be
achieved if an integrated master plan and operational strategy for tourism sectors are
introduced.
6. Conclusions
Tourism in the CBBR represents a dynamic and complex system. The process of
developing the tourism conceptual model has significantly helped the relevant stakeholders
within the region, who share the responsibility of sustaining the system. A better
understanding of the dynamic and complex relationships in the system has been achieved
17
especially through the participatory process of sharing and aligning divergent mental
models of the different stakeholders.
The systems model presents the ‘bigger picture” of tourism in the CBBR and illustrates
how the factors affecting the system are not isolated and independent, but are dynamically
linked. It shows how the different factors cause growth or decline in each other as well as in
other key areas of the system. The model can therefore be used as a platform for dialogue,
communication, collaboration and decision making between relevant stakeholders in the
region. This makes the model potentially a powerful tool for policy makers and
practitioners, who have to manage and sustain the system as a whole.
Development of the causal loop model of the tourism system in the CBBR has served as a
solid foundation to enable the identification of key leverage points in the system. These
leverage points are valuable in allowing the formulation effective and timely systemic
intervention strategies which will permit the important tourism industry of the CBBR to
move forward in a sustainable way.
This study has demonstrated the use of a radical approach (systems thinking) to investigate
and explore the complexity of tourism development. The study is an on-going research. The
causal loop model has been used to develop a systems dynamic model allowing policy
makers and relevant stakeholders to test different scenarios related to the development of
tourism in the CBBR. This will be the content of a forthcoming paper.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to express their deep gratitude to the International Foundation
Science (IFS) for financial support to conduct field work of this study. We also highly
appreciate the invaluable assistance and collaboration of various bodies in Hai Phong City,
Vietnam, especially the Provincial People’s Committee, Cat Hai District People’s
Committee, and Cat Ba Biosphere Reserve Office.
18
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