System
Dynamics
Society
July 26- 30, 2009
Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
Conference Partner:
The Boeing Company
Conference Host Organization:
Sandia National Laboratories
Conference Co-host Institutions:
Argonne National Laboratory
Idaho National Laboratory
Paul Scherrer Institut
proceedings sp d by:
Edited by:
Andrew Ford, David N. Ford, and Edward G. Anderson
Science and Technology ' Production Team:
Robin S. Langer, LouA nne Lundgren,
www.dhs.gov/scienceandtechnology Erin R. Sheehan and Joan M. Y anni
Proceedings
of the
27" International Conference
of the
System Dynamics Society
Proceedings
of the
27" International Conference
of the
System Dynamics Society
July 26 - 30, 2009
Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
Edited by:
Andrew Ford, David N. Ford and Edward G. Anderson
Production Team:
Robin S. Langer, LouA nne Lundgren,
Erin R. Sheehan and Joan M. Y anni
System
Dynamics
Society
©2009, The System Dynamics Society
ISBN 978-1-935056-02-7
To obtain additional copies of these proceedings, or to learn more about the System Dynamics Society
and the international research conferences, contact:
Roberta L. Spencer, Executive Director
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 - Rockefeller College
University at Albany, State University of New Y ork
135 Westen Avenue
Albany, New Y ork 12222, United States of America
Phone: + 1.518.442.3865
Fax: + 1.518.442.3398
Email: office@ systemdynamics.org
Website: www.systemdynamics.org
Table of Contents
Conference Schedul Handout
Welcome 1
Hosts, Partner and Organizing Committee 3
Award Committees 4
Submission Reviewers 5
Vol S 15
Acknowled it of Sp s. 17
Sponsors and Exhibitors 21
SD Career Link 24
2010 Korea A 25
Reading Supporting Material 26
PhD Colloquium Presentations 27
Abstracts* Listed i by first within sections, unless
Parallel and Poster Session Papers 29
Plenary Session Papers 127
Meetings, Special and Convened Sessions 134
Chapter & Special Interest Group Poster Presentations, 146
Workshops and Workshop Series. 154
*Full works as provided ilable on the Society website after the conference.
Bonus Day Presentations 163
Index of Authors, Presenters and Facilitators 167
Conference Venue Floor Plan
Handout
Welcome
Dear Colleagues,
Bienvenidos! Welcome to the 27th International Conference of the System Dynamics
Society. This year we head west, the Western United States that is, specifically
Albuquerque, New Mexico, The Land of Enchantment. This is your opportunity to learn,
to energize, and to enjoy.
Including the PhD Colloquium and the Bonus Day, over the next six, yes six, days you
will have a chance to present, listen to and discuss system dynamics work presented by
academics and practitioners from around the world. This year for the first time there will
be a day dedicated to K-12 education and system dynamics. Plus, on Friday, the Bonus
Day, there will be a wide variety of exciting opportunities.
The conference is a wonderful opportunity to meet an amazing collection of people. We
encourage you to walk up and say hello to everyone - generally we are a pretty friendly
bunch. We are always energized when meeting friends and colleagues and making new
ones, not to mention the wonderful opportunities to ponder practical and methodological
issues with them.
To further increase your enjoyment of the conference we have also scheduled a variety of
social events including a Welcome Reception on Sunday night, an informal visit to Old
Town Albuquerque on Monday night, and the Conference Banquet on Tuesday. We also
welcome those who may be accompanying conference participants but not attending the
formal sessions. We hope that you will take part in the special events and enjoy the
attractions of New Mexico including the pre-arranged tours, children’s activities, and
visits on your own, including Santa Fe.
This year, 415 volunteer reviewers screened and commented on a record number of
submissions. In addition, many dozens of volunteers worked many hours to ensure a
successful conference; without their commitment our conference would be impossible. A
special thank you goes to all who helped.
In addition to all our sponsors and our conference host, Sandia National Laboratories, we
are also very fortunate this year to have The Boeing Company as a conference partner.
We sincerely appreciate the enthusiasm and support of all our sponsors.
We hope that you find the conference stimulating and rewarding. We ask that you bring
to our attention anything that may help us to ensure the success of the current conference,
as well as future ones. Thank you for attending, and, once more, bienvenidos!
On behalf of the hosts and conference committees, best wishes from,
Len Malczynski, Aldo Zagonel, Andy Ford, David Ford,
Edward Anderson, Jack Homer and Roberta Spencer
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Conference Hosts and Partner
Conference The Boeing Company
Partner: Chicago, Illinois USA
Host Sandia National Laboratories
Organization: Albuquerque, New Mexico USA
Co-host Argonne National Idaho National Paul Scherrer
Organizations: Laboratory Laboratory Institut
Argonne, Illinois USA Idaho Falls, Idaho USA __ Villigen PSI Switzerland
C onference C ommittee
Conference Leonard A. Malczynski Organizing Aldo A. Zagonel
Chair: Sandia National Committee Chair: Sandia National
Laboratories Laboratories
Program Andrew Ford David N. Ford Edward G. Anderson
Co-chairs: Washington State Texas A&M University University of Texas
University
Workshop Chair: Jack B. Homer Conference Manager: Roberta L. Spencer
Homer Consulting System Dynamics Society
Organizing Committee
George A. Backus Jacob J. Jacobson
Stephen H. Conrad Idaho National Laboratory
Sandia National Laboratories Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
Michael C. Richey Argonne National Laboratory
Paul Newton Dennis R. Powell
The Boeing Company Los Alamos National Laboratory
Tracy Benson Silvia A. Ulli-Beer
Waters Foundation
Paul Scherrer Institut
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Award Committees
4
Dana Meadows Award
R. Joel Rahn, Chair
Richard G. Dudley
Consultant
John D. W. Morecroft
London Business School
John D. Sterman
System Dynamics Group
MIT Sloan School of Management
Jay W. Forrester Award
Jac A.M. Vennix, Chair
Andrew Ford
Washington State University
Krystyna A. Stave
University of Nevada Las Vegas
Erich K. 0. Zahn
Universitat Stuttgart
Nijmegen School of Management, Radboud University Nijmegen
Jack Homer
Homer Consulting
Khalid Saeed
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
System Dynamics Applications Award
James Lyneis, Chair
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
J. Bradley Morrison
Brandeis University
Eric F. Wolstenholme
Symmetric SD
Community Service Award
James Lyneis, Chair
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Robert L. Eberlein
Ventana Systems Inc
Roberta Spencer
System Dynamics Society
Peter M. Milling
Mannheim University
John D. Sterman
System Dynamics Group
MIT Sloan School of Management
Kim D. Warren
London Business School
Erich K. 0. Zahn
Universitat Stuttgart
Jack Pugh
Retired
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Submission Reviewers
Ahmed AbdelTawab
AbdelG awad
IDSC/UiA
Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid
Naval Postgraduate School
Emmanuel D. Adamides
University of Patras
Ezekiel A delere A deniran
University of Lagos
Ashish Agarwal
Indira Gandhi National Open
University
Namsung Ahn
Korea Electric Power
Corporation
Juha Aijo
Ramboll Finland Ltd
Bahadir Akcam
University at Albany
Fadl Mohammed
Al-Akwaa
Cairo University
Mahmood A lborzi
Azad Islamic University
Stephen A lessi
University of lowa
Robert B. Allen
Drexel University
Richard Althouse
Kristjan Ambroz
Vanguard Strategy
Lianjun An
IBM
Santiago Arango
Universidad Nacional de
Colombia
Seema Arif
University of Central Punjab
Carlos A. Ariza
Stefano Armenia
CATTID, Sapienza University
of Rome
Holger Arndt
Universitat Erlangen Namberg
Steven P. Arquitt
University of Queensland
Daniel J. W. Arthur
Intemational Policy Dynamics
Mohamed Askar
American University in Cairo
Samuel Austin
US Geological Survey
George A. Backus
Sandia National Laboratories
Sushil Bajpai
Sadhana Centre for Mgt and
Leadership
Chris Baker
Fidelity Investments
Bent Erik Bakken
Norwegian Defence
University College
Bjorn T. Bakken
Norwegian Defence Academy
(FSS)
Yaman Barlas
Bogazici University
A.M. Barry
King Saud University
John A. Barton
John Barton Consulting
Pawel Bartoszczuk
System Research Institute
Samuel Bassetto
Grenoble University - Faculty
of Engineering
Steffen Bayer
Imperial College London
Allyson Beall
Washington State University
Todd BenDor
University of North Carolina
Chiara Bernardi
Cattaneo University LIUC
Asmeret Bier
Washington State University
Jason W. Black
GE Global Research
Laura J. Black
Montana State University
Graziella C. Bonadia
Fundagao CPqD
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 5
Submission Reviewers
Andrei Borshchev
XJ Technologies
Ron A. Bouchard
University of Alberta
Jeffrey Boyer
University at Albany
Peter K. Bradl
Univ of Applied Sciences
Wuerzburg
Malcolm Brady
Arizona State University
Newton Paulo Bueno
Federal University of Vicosa
Santiago Caicedo
Avianca
Kenneth H. Carpenter
Jewish Community Center of
Schenectady
Annick Castiaux
University of Namur
Steven A. Cavaleri
Central Connecticut State
University
Edoardo Cavalieri-D'Oro
MIT
Robert Y. Cavana
Victoria University of
Wellington
Miguel Gaston C edillo-
Campos
Tecnologico de Monterrey
Bipin Chadha
Coensys Inc
Ricardo Matos Chaim
University of Brasilia
Gaurav S. Chaudhari
University of Dubai
Jian Hung Chen
National Chi Nan University
Catherine Chiong Meza
Delft University of
Technology
Jianxun Chu
Univ of Science &
Technology of China
Howard Hao-Chun
Chuang
Texas A&M University
Gianluca Colombo
University of Lugano
Stephen H. Conrad
Sandia National Laboratories
Marcello C ontestabile
Imperial College London
Matthew A. Cronin
George Mason University
Margarita Maria Cruz
Barrientos
Global de Pinturas
Scott Cunningham
Delft University of
Technology
Stephen C urram
HVR Consulting Services Ltd
Christian Luiz Da Silva
PUCPR
Xin Dai
School of Business Sun
Y at-sen University
Michael L. Deaton
James Madison University
Salima Delhoum
Universitat Bremen
Sebastian Derwisch
Worldagroforestry Centre
(ICRAF)
Fabio Andrés Diaz Pabon
Universidad de los Andes
David Dickason
Bureau of Naval Personnel
Gokhan Dogan
MIT
Yong Du
University of Toronto
Richard G. Dudley
Jim Duggan
National University of Ireland
Galway
Radboud J. Duintjer
Tebbens
Delft University of
Technology
Varun Dutt
Camegie Mellon University
Josko Dvornik
University of Split
Isaac Dyner
Universidad Nacional de
Colombia
6 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Submission Reviewers
Robert L. Eberlein
Ventana Systems Inc
Sondoss E] Sawah
Australian Defence Force
Academy/UNSW
Marie Elf
Chalmers University of
Technology
Arun Abraham Elias
Victoria University of
Wellington
Cécile Emery
University of Lugano
Philip C. Emmi
University of Utah
Burak Eskici
Bogazici University
Martijn Eskinasi
Amsterdam School of Real
Estate
Joern W. Ewaldt
Con Moto GmbH
Jan Faber
Utrecht University
Jeanne Fair
Los Alamos National
Laboratory
Laércio Ferracioli
Federal University of Espirito
Santo
Lars Finskud
Vanguard Strategy
Michael Fletcher
Fred Flett
JENTEC International
Tom Lum Forest
Prometheal Systems
Jay W. Forrester
MIT
Douglas Franco
Econoinvest
Sheldon Friedman
St Joseph College
Margaret Ann Fulenwider
Helmes & Co LLC
Rafael M. Garcia
Rodriguez
Universidad de La Coruna
Carmine Garzia
University of Lugano
Nicholas C. G eorgantzas
Fordham University Business
Schools
Navid Ghaffarzadegan
University at Albany
Sameh Ibrahim Gharib
University of Bergen
Anthony H. G. Gill
Phrontis Limited
David F. Gillespie
Washington University in St
Louis
Will Glass-Husain
Forio Business Simulations
Cleotilde G onzalez
Carnegie Mellon University
Stefan N. Groesser
University of St. Gallen
Andreas Gro8ler
Radboud University Nijmegen
Carolus Griitters
Radboud University Nijmegen
Burak Gineralp
Y ale University
John W. Gunkler
HPVS LLC
Roger I. Hall
University of Manitoba
Stefan Hallberg
Templog
Reinhard Haller
Vienna University of
Technology
Charles C. Han
Tamkang University
Tim Haslett
Monash University
Gerrit Heijkoop
Delft University of
Technology
Magdy Helal
Benha Higher Institute of
Technology
Amin Helmzadeh
Sharif University of
Technology
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 7
Submission Reviewers
Petri Helo
University of Vaasa
Hugo A. Hernandez
PDVSA
Gary B. Hirsch
Creator of Learning
Environments
Marna Hoard
Substance A buse and Mental
Health Serv
Maik Hollmann
c.con Management Consulting
GmbH
Paul Holmstrém
Paul Holmstrom Management
AB
Siang Lee Hong
Indiana University
Peter S. Hovmand
Washington University in St
Louis
Naiyi Hsiao
National Chengchi University
Rueylin Hsiao
National Cheng-Chi
University
Joe Chiaojen Hsueh
MIT
Juan M. Huerta
Juan M. Huerta Inc.
Margarita Hurtado
Hernandez
Universidad Panamericana
Lihlian Hwang
Ming Chuan University
Athina Ioannidou
Jacob J. Jacobson
Idaho National Laboratory
Greg Jacobus
Sebastian Jaén
Universidad Nacional de
Colombia
Thomas J agalski
Bremen University
Harshvardhan J aipuriar
Tata Consultancy Services
Balaji J anamanchi
Texas A&M Intemational
University
Arthur Janssen
ATEL
Eva Jensen
Swedish National Defence
College
Klaus J ohn
Chemnitz University of
Technology
Paul E. Johnson
University of Minnesota
Scott T. Johnson
AlJones
NIST
Andrew P. Jones
Sustainability Institute
Charles A. J ones
Harvard Kennedy School
Lee J ones
Ventana Systems
Mary C. Jones
University of North Texas
Robert Kallenberg
Porsche AG
Florian Kapmeier
PA Consulting Group
Ozge Karanfil
Simon Fraser University
Evangelos Katsamakas
Fordham University
James Rhys Kearney
University of Salford
Andjelka Kelic
Sandia National Laboratories
Andreas Kemper
European Business School
Benjamin Kim
Lockheed Martin Corporation
Doahoon Kim
Sookmyung Woman's
University
Dong-Hwan Kim
Chung Ang University
Hyunjung Kim
University at Albany
Peter Klaas
Vestas Wind Systems
8 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Submission Reviewers
Miroljub Kljajié
University of Maribor
Mirjana K]jajic Borstnar
University of Maribor
Ulli H. Konig
RWE Energy AG
Davorin Kofjac
University of Maribor
Libor Kolacek
Ness Technologies
Birgit Kopainsky
University of Bergen
Saroj Koul
Acadia University
Rudolf Kulhavy
Academy of Sciences of the
Czech Rep
Martin H. Kunc
Warwick Business School
Jan H. Kwakkel
Delft University of
Technology
Chester S. Labedz
Central Connecticut State
University
Peter Lacey
Whole Systems Partnership
Richard Langheim
Ramapo College of New
Jersey
Sharon Lansing
New Y ork State Div of
Criminal Justice
Rene LeClaire
Los Alamos National
Laboratory
Myoung Ho Lee
Han-Kuk University of
Foreign Studies
Robert C. Lee
University of New Mexico
Tsuey-Ping Lee
National Chung-Cheng
University
Carlos A. Legna
La Laguna University
Ralph L. Levine
Michigan State University
Anson Kin Tat Li
University of Auckland
Lanhai Li
Xinjiang Inst. of Ecology &
Geography
Shyh-J ane Li
National Sun Y at-Sen
University
Chien-Liang Lin
National Kaohsiung First
University
Keith Thomas Linard
John-Paul II Institute
Ralf Lippold
Jing-jiang Liu
Zhejiang University
Min Liu
University of Italian
Switzerland
Manuel Liz
Universidad de La Laguna
Corey Lofdahl
BAE Systems
Luis Lopez
INCAE Business School
David W. Lounsbury
Einstein College of Medicine,
Yeshiva
Mohamed L outfi
University of Wales Institute,
Cardiff
Weifeng Lu
Nanchang Insititute of
Technology
Luis F. Luna-Reyes
Universidad de las Americas
Puebla
Yufeng Luo
Hohai University
Kathleen Lusk Brooke
Center for the Study of
Success
James M. Lyneis
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute
John Lyneis
MIT
Kambiz E. Maani
University of Queensland
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
9
Submission Reviewers
Roderick H. MacDonald
Initiative for SD in the Public
Sector
Louis Macovsky
Dynamic BioSystems LLC
Frank H. Maier
International University in
Germany
Mohammad Majdalawi
Arab Organization for
Agricultural Devel
Leonard A. Malczynski
Sandia National Laboratories
Martin E. Maren
Jason Markham
JM
Juan Martin Garcia
Julia Martinez
Universidad de Murcia
Ignacio J. Martinez-
Moyano
Argonne National Laboratory
Geoff McDonnell
Adaptive Care Systems
Marion McGregor
Canadian Memorial
Chiropractic College
Stephen B. McIntosh
Cardiff University
Douglas McKelvie
Alan Charles McLucas
Australian Defence Force
Academy/UNSW
Michael L. McManus
Children's Hospital
Alexandra Medina-Borja
University of Puerto Rico at
Mayaguez
Arif Mehmood
United Arab Emirates
University
Carlos Manuel Méndez
Acosta
Universidad de Belgrano
Luis Javier Miguel
University of Valladolid
Thar A. Miklashevich
Belarusian National Technical
Univ
Stanislava Mildeova
University of Economics in
Prague
Peter M. Milling
Mannheim University
James I. Mills
University of Utah
Bobby Milstein
Ctrs for Disease Control &
Prevention
Nathan A. Minami
US Army
Rajiv J. Mistry
Microsoft
Abdalla S. A. Mohamed
Cairo University
Jonathan D. Moizer
University of Plymouth
Mohammad T.
Mojtahedzadeh
The Boeing Company
Edoardo Mollona
Universita degli Studi di
Bologna
Giovan Battista
Montemaggiore
University of Palermo
Tae Hoon Moon
Chung Ang University
M. Hashem Moosavi
Haghighi
Ministry of Agriculture
José Manuel Mora
Tavarez
Autonomous Univ of
Aguascalientes
Michiya Morita
Gakushuin University
Marciano Morozowski
W!se Systems
J. Bradley Morrison
Brandeis University
Shereen Mohamed Morsi
MSA University
Mara Mulinari
Universidade Federal do
Espirito Santo
10 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Submission Reviewers
Ante M. Munitic
University of Split
Frank K. Murdock
FKM Consulting
Robert Murray
Savvy- Integration
Mostafa Najafiyazdi
McGill University
Dharmaraj Navaneetha
Krishnan
MIT
Paul Newton
The Boeing Company
Phuong Linh Thi Nguyen
Asian University
Stephen Olu Ogunlana
Heriot-Watt University
Cristiane O gushi
Fundagao CPqD
Camilo Olaya
Universidad de los Andes
Rogelio Oliva
Texas A&M University
Gerard O'Reilly
LGS Innovations/Bell Labs
Peter Otto
Union Graduate College
Birnur Ozbas
Bogazici University
Onur Ozgiin
Bogazici University
Ozgur Ozkan
Health Market Science
David W. Packer
Systems Thinking
Collaborative
Ozge Pala
Radboud University Nijmegen
George Papachristos
University of Patras
Theresa Pardo
University at Albany
Sang Hyun Park
National Information Society
Agency
Jamshid Parvizian
Isfahan University of
Technology
Donatella Pasqualini
Los Alamos National
Laboratory
Kalyan S. Pasupathy
University of Missouri
Alberto Paucar-C aceres
Manchester Metropolitan
University
Oleg V. Pavlov
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute
Janecke Pemmer
PricewaterhouseC oopers
Francisco J. Perez
Expertia Consulting Group
Gloria Pérez Salazar
Tecnologico de Monterrey
Lazaros V. Petrides
University of Salford
David G. Pfeiffer
Option Six
Olga Pierrakos
James Madison University
Kawika Pierson
MIT
Seckin Polat
Istanbul Technical University
Roberto Poles
RMIT University
P. Jeffrey Potash
CIESD LLP
Roberto Max Protil
Pontificia Univ Catdlica do
Parana
Davide Provenzano
University of Bergen
Erik Pruyt
Delft University of
Technology
Ying Qian
Agder University College
Rob Quaden
Carlisle Public Schools
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah
Y ork University
Michael Quigley
University of Salford
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 11
Submission Reviewers
Muhammad Azeem
Qureshi
Bahauddin Zakariya
University Multan
Luis Rabelo
University of Central Florida
Martin Rafferty
London South Bank
University
Hazhir Rahmandad
Virginia Tech
R. Joel Rahn
F. Vittorio Raimondi
Vanguard Strategy
K. Raman
Atefe Ramezankhani
Sharif University of
Technology
Boris Ramos
Jorgen Randers
Norwegian School of
Management
David Rees
Synergia Ltd
Juan C. Rego
André Reichel
Jose Luis Revah
SHL
Eliot Rich
University at Albany
George P. Richardson
University at Albany
John M. Richardson
American University
James L. Ritchie-Dunham
Institute for Strategic Clarity
Donald Robadue
Coastal Resources Center
Scott F. Rockart
Duke University
Lewlyn L. R. Rodrigues
Manipal Institute of
Technology
Thomas R. Rohleder
Mayo Clinic
David Rose
Stax Inc
Jay K. Rosengard
Harvard University
Etiénne A. J. A. Rouwette
Radboud University Nijmegen
K. R. Divakar Roy
Andhra University
Alexander V. Ryzhenkov
Mannheim University
Khalid Saeed
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute
Mohamed Mostafa Saleh
Cairo University
Rui Ferreira Santos
New University of Lisbon
Sangeeta Sardiwal
London South Bank
University
Kemal Sarica
Bogazici University
Jose Mari Sarriegi
Tecnun - University of
Navarra
Jeremy B. Sato
Washington University
Ali Kerem Saysel
Bogazici University
Martin F.G.
Schaffernicht
Universidad de Talca
Tim Scheffmann
Credit Suisse
Michael Schwandt
Markus Schwaninger
University of St Gallen
Habib Sedehi
University of Rome
Maria Cristina Serrano
Universidad Autonoma de
Bucaramanga
Man-Hua Sheng
Taiwan Textile Research
Institute
Michelle Shields
AgResearch
Timothy J. Shimeall
Camegie Mellon University
12 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Submission Reviewers
William Siemer
Comell University
Martin Simon
ipgroup
Andrej Skraba
University of Maribor
Jill H. Slinger
Delft University of
Technology
Merica Sliskovic
University of Split
M. Dolores Soto-T orres
Universidad de Valladolid
J. Michael Spector
University of Georgia
Thomas Stefan Spengler
Technische Universitat
Braunschweig
Yeoryios A. Stamboulis
University of Thessaly
Krystyna A. Stave
University of Nevada Las
Vegas
Katherine Steel
The World Bank
William Steinhurst
Synapse Energy Economics
Inc
Jiirgen Strohhecker
Frankfurt School of Finance
and Mgt
Jeroen Struben
Desautels Faculty of
Management, McGil
Lees N. Stuntz
Creative Leaming Exchange
Derek R. Supple
MIT
Marek Susta
Proverbs Corporation
Mats G. Svensson
Lund University
Fabian Szulanski
Mihaela Tabacaru
University of Bergen
Md Yusoff Taib
Zetta Consultants Sdn Bhd
Yutaka Takahashi
School of Commerce, Senshu
University
Burcu Tan
University of Texas at Austin
Muhammad Tasrif
Bandung Institute of
Technology
Ivan William Taylor
Dept of National Defence
Kathryn S. Taylor
University of Oxford
Timothy R. B. Taylor
Texas A&M University
Pard Teekasap
Southem New Hampshire
University
Victor Thombs
Decision Dynamics Inc
James P. Thompson
Fang Tian
Tsinghua University
Warren W. Tignor
SAIC
Flavio Tonelli
University of Genoa
Denis Tréek
Faculty of Computer and Info
Science
Kostas Triantis
Virginia Tech
lavor Trifonov
London Business School
Ya-tsai Tseng
Tunghai University
Yi-Ming Tu
National Sun Y at-Sen
University
David Turbow
TUI University
Fiisun Ulengin
Istanbul Technical University
Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
Imrana A. Umar
Powersim Solutions
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 13
Submission Reviewers
Keyvan Vakili Cuixia Wang LiXu
Sharif University of Jiangxi Univ of Finance & Fudan University
Technology Economics
Kaoru Y amaguchi
Cornelia van Daalen Keming Wang Doshisha University
Delft University of Counties Manukau District
Technology Health Board Min-Ren Yan
Chinese Culture University
Theo van Mullekom Kim D. Warren
London Business School Seung-J un Y eon
Margarita Vazquez Electronics and Telecom
Universidad de La Laguna Elise A. Weaver Research Inst
Human Resources Research
Nuno Videira Organization Joseph Y oon
New University of Lisbon Institute for International
Henry Birdseye Weil Commerce
Pablo Viejo MIT
European Institute for Energy Jiong You
Research Christian Weitert Fudan University
University of Mannheim
Klaus Ole Vogstad Gonenc Y iicel
Agder Energi Anthony S. White Delft University of
Middlesex University Technology
John J. Voyer
University of Southern Maine Andrew Whitmore Erich K. 0. Zahn
University at Albany Universitat Stuttgart
Khaled Wahba
Cairo University Elin Whitney-Smith Xiandong Zhang
Netalyst Inc Fudan University
Wayne Wakeland
Portland State University Sanith Wijesinghe Longbin Zheng
New England Complex University of Bergen
Robert J. Walker Systems Institute
Delsys Research Group Inc Nicole Zimmermann
Ines Winz Mannheim University
Patrik Wallman University of Auckland
Lund University
Ellen Wolfe
Grit Walther Resero Consulting
Technische Universitat
Braunschweig
If you are i d in reviewing sul: for future please contact the System Dynamics Society at
office@ systemdynamics.org; include your name, contact information and area(s) of expertise.
14 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Volunteers
Edward G. Anderson, Jr.
University of Texas
Thread Chair
Bent Erik Bakken
Norwegian Defence
University College
Thread Chair
Allyson Beall
Washington State University
Thread Chair
Carbon Neutral Program
Coordinator
Asmeret Bier
Washington State University
Student Volunteer
Sion Cave
HVR Consulting Services
Ltd
Thread Chair
Dean Christensen
Cyber Learning Corporation
Conference Photographer
Howard Hao-C hun C huang
Texas A&M University
Student Volunteer
Thomas F. Corbet
Sandia National Laboratories
Thread Chair
Lyle Davis
University of Nevada
Student Volunteer
Jennifer Davis
University of Nevada, Las
Vegas
Student Volunteer
Emre Demirezen
Texas A&M University
Student Volunteer
Vedat G. Diker
University of Maryland
Thread Chair
Jim Duggan
National University of
Ireland Galway
Thread Chair
Robert Eberlein
Ventana Systems Inc
Web-based Submission
System Programmer
David R. Exelby
Decision Analysis Services
Ltd
Thread Chair
Thomas Fiddaman
Ventana Systems
Thread Chair
Emilee Ford
Washington State University
Student Volunteer
Valerie Gacogne
Complexio
Thread Chair
Navid G haffarzadegan
University at Albany
CareerLink Bulletin Board
Coordinator
Poster Symposium
Coordinator
Volunteer Coordinator
Paulo Gongalves
MIT
Thread Chair
Mark Heffernan
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
Thread Chair
Gregory Hennessy
University of Nevada, Las
Vegas
Student Volunteer
Gary B. Hirsch
Creator of Learning
Environments
Thread Chair
Jack B. Homer
Homer Consulting
Thread Chair
Sung-Ho Hong
Chungbuk National
University
Student Volunteer
Charles W. Hutchings
U.S. Department of
Homeland Security
Thread Chair
Niyousha Hosseinichimeh
University at Albany
Student Volunteer
Eva J ensen
Swedish National Defence
College
Thread Chair
Michael S. Kennedy
London South Bank
University
Thread Chair
Hi Sook Kim
University at Albany Visiting
Scholar
Poster Symposium Assistant
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 15
Vol s
Tsuey-Ping Lee
National Chung-Cheng
University
Thread Chair
James M. Lyneis
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute
Thread Chair
Leonard Malczynski
Sandia National Laboratories
Newcomer Orientation
Session Coordinator
Ignacio J. Martinez-
Moyano
Argonne National Laboratory
Thread Chair
James Melhuish
BAE Systems
Newcomer Orientation
Session Coordinator
William Meyer
University of Nevada, Las
Vegas
Student Volunteer
J. Bradley Morrison
Brandeis University
Thread Chair
Erling Moxnes
University of Bergen
Thread Chair
Onur Ozgiin
Bogazici University
Student Volunteer
Dinesh Prashar
University of Nevada
Student Volunteer
Jack Pugh
Retired
Webmaster
Kamal Qaiser
University of Nevada
Student Volunteer
Hazhir Rahmandad
Virginia Tech
Workshop Coordinator
R. Joel Rahn
Thread Chair
George P. Richardson
University at Albany
Thread Chair
Scott F. Rockart
Duke University
Thread Chair
Etiénne A.J. A. Rouwette
Radboud University
Nijmegen
Thread Chair
Jose Mari Sarriegi
Tecnun - University of
Navarra
Thread Chair
Eleeja Shrestha
University of Nevada
Student Volunteer
Heather Skaza
University of Nevada-Las
Vegas
Student Volunteer
Krystyna A. Stave
University of Nevada Las
Vegas
Thread Chair
James P. Thompson
Thread Chair
José M. Torres
Tecnun University of
Navarra
Thread Chair
Jeff W. Trailer
California State University
Chico
Thread Chair
Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
PSI
Thread Chair
W. Duncan Wadsworth
University of New Mexico
Student Volunteer
David Wheat
University of Bergen
Thread Chair
Kaoru Y amaguchi
Doshisha University
Thread Chair
Nicole Zimmermann
Volunteer Coordinator
Many thanks to every volunteer for their time and energy.
Our apologies if we inadvertently omitted anyone from this extensive list. Session Reporters will be listed and
their reports will be published in the October Newsletter of the System Dynamics Society.
If you are interested in volunteering for future conferences, please contact the System Dynamics Society at
office@ systemdynamics.org; include your name and contact information.
16 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Acknowledgment of Sponsors
Conference Partner
Q) AOEING Sponsor of Conference Banquet
Conference Host and Major Sponsor
S d
an la Sponsor of Opening Plenary Session,
Closing Plenary Session,
National - sks ern ay
Laboratories
Conference C o-host Institutions
Argonne re cs g ny I
Idaho National Laboratory —
PAUL SCHERRER INSTITUT
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 17
Major Sponsors
TART.
le
Homeland
. Ww Security
Science and Technology
Sponsor of Nutrition Bars Sponsor of Printed Proceedings
LOCKHEED MARTIN
(h) Sandia National Laboratories
Sponsor of Sessions on Education, Special K-12 Students and Teachers Poster Session,
K-Graduate Community Workshops, and K-12 Bonus Day Event
Mid-level Sponsors
Sponsor of Chapter and Special Interest
Group Special Poster Session
Idaho Notional Laboratory
The
ae Manufacturing Game®
Sponsor of Refreshment Breaks
Sponsor of Thursday Workshops
18 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Exhibitors
Ny
hy *# CRI 6 integrate
Amber Blocks, Ltd. INTERNATIONAL
eg Fen, 28 Forio
@ Business Simulations
6 “Gy isee
Gold$im oe systems
JantzMorgan ily
Business and Financial Consultancies
Egypt & Made
Consulting Poweksim.
Group — solutions
transentis 1) VENTANA
systeMs, inc
vr
Partnership ny Ogic 6
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Additional Sponsors and Friends
— FOOD
CSArch ye
Sponsor of Conference Posters .
Sponsor of Tortilla Chips
dl
Lane
Tess
Huerfano Chapter, Navajo Nation _
Sponsor of Native American Sponsor of Partial Printing
Dance Exhibition of Conference Brochures
Sponsor of PhD Colloquium Luncheon
System Dynamics Guild at
Powersim Software Sandia National Laboratories
Partial Co-sponsor of Welcome Reception Partial Co-sponsor of Welcome Reception
International .
Society of the
System society for S L
Sciences organizational learning
PEGASUS
Synapse HM
Energy Economics, inc. WILEY-
BLACKWELL
Many organizations and individuals contributed to this conference. We wholeheartedly thank our
sponsors and encourage you to thank their representatives during the conference. Please see contact
information for conference sponsors and exhibitors on the following pages.
Our Sincere Thanks To All Our Sponsors
20 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Sponsors, Exhibitors and Friends
Amber Blocks Ltd.
535 Park Avenue, Suite 4A
New Y ork, New Y ork 10065 USA
Phone: + 1 212 593 3110
Fax: + 1 212 755 3755
Argonne National Laboratory
9700 S. Cass Avenue
Argonne, Illinois 60439 USA
Phone: + 1 630 252 2000
www.anl.gov
Atkins Nutritionals, Inc.
1050 17th Street, Suite 1000
Denver, Colorado 80265 USA
Phone: + 1 303 633 2840
Fax: + 1 303 633 2860
www.atkins.com
The Boeing Company
100 North Riverside Plaza
Chicago, Illinois 60606-1596 USA
Phone: + 1 206 655 2121
www.boeing.com
CRA International
200 Clarendon Street, T-33
Boston, Massachusetts 02116 USA
and additional worldwide locations
Phone: + 1 617 425 3000
Fax: + 1 617 425 3132
www.crai.com
CSArch
Architecture | C onstruction Management
40 Beaver Street
Albany, New Y ork 12207 USA
Phone: + 1 518 463 8068
Fax: + 1 518 463 8069
www.csarchpc.com
e-integrate
1170 Brussels Belgium
Phone: + 32 2 672 72 77
Fax: +32 2 672 7277
Mail: info@ e-integrate.com
European Master Programme in
System Dynamics
Thomas Van A quinostraat 3, P.O. Box 9108
Nijmegen The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 24 3615805
Fax: + 31 24 3611088
www.europeansystemdynamics.eu
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
Level 6, Tower 2, 475 Victoria Avenue
Chatswood, New South Wales 2067 Australia
Phone: + 612 9495 0500
Fax: + 612 9495 0500
www.evanspeck.com
FoodShouldT asteG ood, Inc.
75 Second Ave., Suite 600
Needham Heights, Massachusetts 02494 USA
Phone: + 1 781 455 8500
Fax: + 1 781 455 8550
www .foodshouldtastegood.com
Forio Business Simulations
400 Spear Street, #120
San Francisco, California 94105 USA
Phone: + 1 415 440 7500
Fax: + 1 415 354 3457
www.forio.com
GoldSim Technology Group
300 NE Gilman Blvd, Suite 100
Issaquah, Washington 98027-2941 USA
Phone: + 1 425 295 6985
Fax: +1 425 642 8073
www.goldsim.com
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 21
‘s, Exhibitors and Friends
Huerfano Chapter (Dzil na’ oodilii)
Navajo Arts and Crafts
PO Box 968, County Rd. 7150, Bldg. #536
Bloomfield, New Mexico 87413 USA
Phone: + 1 505 325 1400
www.navajo-arts.com
Idaho National Laboratory
2525 N. Fremont Ave
Idaho Falls, Idaho 83415 USA
www.inl.gov
International Society for
the Systems Sciences
47 Southfield Road
Pocklington, Y ork YO42 2XE UK
Phone: + 44 (0)1759 302718
Fax: + 44 (0)1759 302718
www.isss.org/world
isee systems
Wheelock Office Park
31 Old Etna Road, Suite 7N
Lebanon, New Hampshire 03766 USA
Phone: + 1 603 448 4990
Fax: + 1 603 448 4992
Blog address: blog.iseesystems.com
www.iseesystems.com
Jantz Morgan LLC
253 Pleasant Street
Arlington, Massachusetts 02476 USA
Phone: + 1 781 643 6027
Fax: + 1 781 240 0326
www jantzmorgan.com
Lane Press of Albany
11 Kaimes Street
Albany, New Y ork 12205 USA
Phone: + 1 518 438 7834
Fax: + 1 518 438 3942
www.lanepressofalbany.com
The Manufacturing Game,
Ledet Enterprises, Inc.
7702 FM 1960 East Suite 226
Humble, Texas 77346 USA
Phone: + 1 281 812 4148
Fax: + 1 281 812 4149
www.manufacturinggame.com
Mohaseboon
Business & Financial C onsultancies
6 Omar Makram st., El Zohour District
West Omraniah, El Haram, Cairo Egypt
Phone: + 202 397 66 602
www.mohasboon.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142 USA
and additional worldwide locations
Phone: + 1 617 225 2700
Fax: + 1 617 225 2631
www.paconsulting.com
Paul Scherrer Institut
5232 Villigen PSI Switzerland
Phone: +41 (0)56 310 21 11
Fax: + 41 (0)56 310 21 16
www.psi.ch
Pegasus C ommunications, Inc.
One Moody Street
Waltham, Massachusetts 02453-5339 USA
Phone: + 1 781 398 9700
Fax: + 1 781 894 7175
WWw.pegasuscom.com
Ponte Consulting Group
Level 2, 14 Collins Street
Melbourne, Victoria 3000 Australia
Phone: +61 425 9473 60
www.ponteglobal.com
22 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
S 's, Exhibitors and Friends
Powersim Software AS
PO Box 125 Nyborg
N-5871 Bergen Norway
Phone: + 47 5560 6500
Fax: + 47 5560 6501
www.powersim.com
Powersim Solutions, Inc.
585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon, Virginia 20170 USA
Phone: + 1 703 467 0910
Fax: + 1 703 467 0912
www.powersimsolutions.com
Sandia National Laboratories
Albuquerque, New Mexico USA
Phone: + 1 505 284 6773
Fax: + 1 505 844 8558
www.sandia.gov
SoL
The Society for Organizational Learning
PO Box 381050
Cambridge, Massachusetts USA
Phone: + 1 617 300 9500
General Inquiries: info@ solonline.org
www.solonline.org
Synapse Energy Economics, Inc.
45 State St., #394
Montpelier, Vermont 05602 USA
Phone: + 1 802 223 2417
www.synapse-energy.com
System Dynamics Guild at Sandia
National Laboratories
Albuquerque, New Mexico USA
transentis management consulting
GmbH & Co. KG
Kranzplatz 5-6
Wiesbaden 65183 Germany
Phone: + 49 611 9009971
Fax: + 49 611 9009999
www.transentis.com
U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Science and Technology Directorate
Washington, DC 20528 USA
www.dhs.gov/scienceandtechnology
Ventana Systems, Inc.
60 Jacob Gates Road
Harvard, Massachusetts 01451 USA
Phone: + 1 508 651 0432
Fax: + 1 508 650 5422
Email: vensim@vensim.com
www.vensim.com
The Whole Systems Partnership
The Old Crown
Farnham, North Y orkshire HG5 9JD UK
Phone: + 44 1423 340585
Fax: + 44 1423 340289
www.thewholesystem.co.uk
Wiley-Blackwell
The Atrium, Southem Gate
Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ UK
Phone: + 44 (0)1243 779777
Fax: + 44 (0)1243 775878
www.wiley.com
Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI)
100 Institute Road
Worcester, Massachusetts 01609-2280 USA
Phone: + 1 508 831 6789
Fax: + 1 508 831 5517
Email: online@ wpi.edu
www.online.wpi.edu
XJ Technologies C ompany Ltd.
Office 410, 49 Nepokorennykh Ave.
St. Petersburg 195220 Russia
Phone: + 7 812 441 3105 and +7 812 441 3106
Fax: +7 812 441 3107
www.xjtek.com
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 23
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File Name: — p3233verA_RO_SysDynCnfrn.indd Output%: None Client: Boeing Brand: Corporate Communica- [AD: _B Twalks/M Lee
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Sandia National Laboratories
Host of the 2009 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Sandia’s Z machine, the world's most powerful X-ray source, is used for fusion energy
research and to test the effects of radiation on materials.
Sandia National Laboratories is one of America’s premier research
and development laboratories. Our core purpose is to secure a
peaceful and free world through technology.
Since Sandia was established in Albuquerque, NM, in 1945 it has
grown into a broad national security laboratory encompassing a
variety of technologies and programs. Our work involves missions
in these key areas:
IH Nuclear Weapons and Nonproliferation
I Defense Systems and Assessment
i Energy and Resources
i Homeland Security
Sandia works for, and partners with, the Department of Energy, the
Department of Defense, and the Department of Homeland Security.
We also work closely with industry, universities, and other govern-
ment agencies to bring new technologies to the marketplace. The
Labs may negotiate with partners to sign cooperative RaD agree-
ments that permit the Labs to collaborate on mutually beneficial
research. Other options for pursuing shared interests include licens-
ing agreements, technical assistance, use: i unique Sandia facilities,
} dabflund fi
technical personnel and
Sandia has about 8,600 employees, and our workforce consists of
highly educated and skilled engineers, scientists, and technologists.
About 18 percent of our employees hold doctoral degrees, and about
30 percent hold master's degrees.
System Dynamics at Sandia
Sandia has been active in system dynamics since 1975. Today Sandia
is highly vested in SD-based studies of critical infrastructure protec-
tion, energy economics, and water resources management. Efforts to
understand the dynamics of coupled infrastructures, examine alterna-
tive energy sources, and highlight short- versus long-term trade-offs
in strategy and decision making are currently funded at the level of
millions of dollars annually.
Modeling for Water & Energy Decision Support
System Dynamics modeling for water and energy decision support
has focused on the issue of sustainability. An international effort to
build a high-level model of water resources in China, and a local
initiative to model household water conservation in the Rio Grande
Basin of New Mexico, have spun off many other water resource
management studies, both domestically and abroad, The energy
models have been used to contrast alternative, renewable energy
sources against petroleum-based fuels.
A Global Energy Futures Model simulates key aspects of nuclear and
non-nuclear energy, nuclear materials storage and disposition, global
nuclear-materials management, and nuclear-proliferation risk, along
with oil, gas, coal, greenhouse gas emissions, and other measures
of environmental impact. The model has been used by government
officials to simulate future energy trends and has created interest
in bio-fuel and renewable fuel studies, as well as integrated water,
energy, and food modeling projects.
These multi disciplinary projects have been client based and stake-
holder-driven. The assumptions embedded in the models have been
scrutinized by a gamut of scientists and experts. A groundbreaking
effort is under way to integrate system dynamics, border gradients
models, and spatially explicit modeling environments, such as GIS.
Modeling for Critical Infrastructure Protection
Today's open and technologically complex society includes a wide
array of critical infrastructures. Many have historically been physi-
cally and logically separate systems that had little interdependence.
Asa result of advances in information technology and the necessity
of improved eficiency, however, these infrastructures have become
d and interlinked. These same advances have
Created new and possibly cascading vulnerabilities.
of i it inistratic contract
--ACO4-94AL85000. SAND No, 2007-3254P.
States Department.
@ Hs.
Sandia National Laboratories is home to the National Infrastructure
Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), established to integrate
the national laboratories’ expertise in modeling and simulating com-
plex systems. System dynamics is an important modeling capability
used to quantify and evaluate the effects of infrastructures and their
interdependencies on supply and demand under different conditions
Given a specific threat or vulnerability scenario, the model-based
analyses estimate the potential magnitude, location, and timing of
disruptions. Further, the analyses establish propagations through-
out infrastructures and national regions, examine limiting factors,
capacities, and redundancies and quantify overall consequences. The
models incorporate the feedbacks created by the interdependencies
and their net effects on supply and demand balances. They also aim
to identify unintended consequences of policy
responses.
Critical infrastructure protection studies using —
system dynamics modeling include, among =
others
® Port security and long-term economic viability
1 Loss of multiple telecommunication assets
@ Social and economic effects of animal and
plant diseases
® Physical disruptions due to natural disasters
Sandia National Laboratories is
home to the National Infrastructure
Simulation and Analysis Center
In eae 1 with other National el anaes universities, and
businesses in the Southwest region of the US, we are excited to host
the 2009 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
in Albuquerque, NM. This pivotal event will help consolidate and
enhance the use of system dynamics at the national laboratories and
encourage its use in national policy making.
! a me COE.
[oer | wan
Information
For more about Sandia,
visit us at www.sandia.gov.
An overview booklet is
available by contacting the
Public Relations and Communi-
cations Center(505) 844-4902.
@ Hz.
Sandia
National
Laboratories
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There is, perhaps, no other national laboratory with an energy research legacy as long and
proud as Idaho National L ry ginning with the of the world’s first usable
amount of electricity from nuclear power back in 1951, the lab has an unmatched record of
success in hybrid and electric vehicle testing; wind, hydropower and geothermal! systems
engineering and resource mapping; Pty Nl nee, anaes eon eed ree
syngas iene to protect critical
energy Me ing powerful solutions
Ie coongy caer hated, Nish mit isan
—s _
il Nik, Idaho National Laboratory
The Manufacturing Game Workshop is a thought provoking simulation
based on system dynamics that encourages all employees — managers,
engineers, maintenance personnel, materials procurement, and front
line operators to get involved in the reliability of their facility as part
of their normal routine.
The Manufacturing Game® facilitates organizational change by
changing the way people think about the way they work through
defect elimination and cross functional teams.
Ledet Enterprises, Inc. is available to develop custom programs for industry,
government, the military, health fields, education, etc. using system dynamics.
For information on The Manufacturing Game® or other types of simulation
development call (281) 812-4148 or email info@mfg-game.com.
The .
Manufacturing Game
www.mfg-game.com (281) 812-4148
®
@) WPI
Online Courses in System Dynamics
Help your organization think strategically
Assist decision makers in determining policy
Enable managers to reach a consensus
Program Overview
>» ONLY ON-LINE Master of Science in System Dynamics
> di can LIVE ANYWHERE in the world
> Take individual courses or pursue a 5 course graduate certificate
> 3 semesters per year ranging 10 to 14 weeks
Distinguished Faculty
James Doyle, PhD — Faculty, WPI
Bob Eberlein, PhD — Product Development, Ventana Systems
Andrew Ford, PhD — Faculty, Washington State University
James Lyneis, PhD —Faculty, WPI; Past President, SDS
John Morecroft, PhD — Faculty, London Business School; Past
President, SDS
Oleg Pavlov, PhD — Faculty, WPI
Michael Radzicki, PhD — Faculty, WPI; Past President, SDS
Khalid Saeed, PhD — Faculty, WPI; Past President, SDS
James Thompson, ABD — Consultant, Health Services
Kim Warren, PhD — Principal, Global Strategy Dynamics, Ltd.
Faculty, London Business School
WPI Online: Access courses through the Internet from any location in the world. Course material is
available any time of day, even within different time zones. Electronic assignment submission tools,
discussion board for on-line class interaction, group collaboration and file sharing.
WORCESTER POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE
Distance Learning Office — online@wpi.edu — www.online.wpi.edu — 508-831-6789, Worcester, MA 01609, U.S.
Sponsors of Systems Thinking and System Dynamics in
Education K-12 and Business
Amber Blocks Ltd.
\ 535 Park Avenue, Suite 4A
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ty Tel (212) 593 3110
\ f Allen L. and Jane K. Boorstein.
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IT HAS BEEN OUR PLEASURE to fund the Dana Meadows Student Paper Prize given
annually for the best student paper presented at the International System Dynamics Conference.
Thanks to all who helped establish the fund to permanently endow this valuable award.
Best wishes to all the students, who are the future of system dynamics.
Risk management
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Making Liveable, Sustainable Systems Unremarkable
The International Society for the Systems Sciences (ISSS) is among the first and
oldest organizations devoted to interdisciplinary inquiry into the nature of complex
systems, and remains perhaps the most broadly inclusive. Since 1954, the ISSS has
expanded its scope beyond purely theoretical and technical considerations to include
the practical application of systems methodologies to problem solving. Even more
importantly, it has provided a forum where scholars and practitioners from across the
disciplinary spectrum, representing academic, business, government, and non-profit
communities, can come together to share ideas and learn from one another.
IS$$2009 will be hosted by The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia July
42-17, 2009. ISSS2010 will be held at Wilfred Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada,
July 18-23, 2003. For further information, visit the website: http: .www.isss.org/world
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THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS CAREER LINK
What is it? The SD Career Link, started in 2000, is hosted by the System Dynamics Society. It
includes on-line information and links to organizations that employ candidates with system
dynamics and systems thinking backgrounds. The SD Career Link provides a valuable forum for
the exchange of information about organizations, positions and people in the field of system
dynamics. Please visit the SD Career Link bulletin board at the conference.
Career Link Allows Companies and Universities to D escribe G eneral Career
Information as Well as Specific Job Opportunities. The SD Career Link web page of the
Society web site has two subsections: (1) specific job listings, and (2) company/university
profiles. In the job listings section of the career link, employers advertise their current openings.
These are for any level of required expertise located in any geographical region. In the profiles
section, company and university employers provide general yet descriptive information about
how system dynamics fits into their organization, typical jobs, career paths, and other aspects of
employment. This subsection allows employers to provide information about system dynamics
opportunities within their organizations to supplement the more general information contained
on their corporate or academic websites. Such career information is valuable to current as well as
future system dynamics students, academics, and practitioners and we urge companies and
universities to describe the use of system dynamics expertise in their organization even if they do
not have job openings at the present time.
How to participate? Please refer to the SD Career Link page at the System Dynamics Society
website at http://www.systemdynamics.org/sd_career_link.htm or send an email message to the
Society office at <office@ systemdynamics.org>. We look forward to your participation.
24 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
(System
| Dynamics
Society
Announcing the 28" Intemational Conference of
the System Dynamics Society
Seoul, Korea
July 25 - 29, 2010
Conference C ontacts
Conference Chair:
Man-Hyung Lee
Chungbuk National University
Host Organization:
Korea Chapter of the
System Dynamics Society
Program Committee:
Tae-Hoon Moon, Chair
Chung Ang University
Zhiguang Cao, Co-Chair
Shanghai University of
Finance and Economics
Tim Haslett, Co-Chair
Monash University
Kaoru Y amaguchi, Co-Chair
Doshisha University
Khalid Saeed, Coordinator
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Organizing Committee:
Dong-Hwan Kim, Chair
Chung Ang University
Won-Gyu Ha
Electronics and Telecom
Research Institute
Y oung-Kyo Hong
Sook-Myung Women's
University
Mi-Sook Yi
Korea Research Institute for
Human Settlements
Y oung-Min Oh
Seoul National University
Workshop Co-chairs:
Nam-Hee Choi
Chungju National University
Sang-Hyun Park
National Information Society
Agency
Conference Manager:
Roberta L. Spencer
System Dynamics Society
conference@ systemdynamics.org
The capital of Korea, Seoul, is located on the Han River. Seoul
has been the capital of successive Korean nations ever since
1394. With over ten million people, Seoul is Korea's largest city
and one of the most densely populated cities in the world,
covering an area of 605 square kilometers. The rapid economic,
social, and technological progress of the
city has played a key role in Korea’s
development, and has been referred to as
the “Miracle on the Han River.”
The Conference Venue: Nestled in
Songpa-gu, on the south side of the Han
River, the Seoul Olympic Parktel has
perfect features for international gatherings,
and is a landmark in the heart of Seoul’s
sports district. The Seoul Olympic Parktel vividly reflects the
proud history of Seoul hosting the 1988 Olympic and
Paralympic Games. Surrounded with
panoramic views of the Olympic
Stadium, Olympic Park, Fortress, and
Han River, the environment-friendly
hotel and its beautiful outdoor
surroundings will offer everlasting
excitement and memories.
Furthermore, the Y outh Hostel within the Seoul Olympic
Parktel property guarantees alternative accommodations geared
towards less expensive, but cozy lodging.
For detailed information about Seoul Olympic Parktel please
visit: http://www. parktel.co.kr.
Watch for further announcements and details as they develop
Visit our website: http://www.systemdynamics.org
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
25
Reading Supporting Material
Supporting Material files can be found by clicking on the appropriate link in the Paper Index, found on
the conference website. Papers are listed alphabetically by the last name of the primary author.
> Viewing/O pening/Reading the Supporting Material:
Supporting materials will contain either a single file, or a PKZip format file which can be opened with a
number of utilities or directly on some operating systems. File types that may be contained with
supporting materials include plain text files or commonly used files types such as .doc, .ppt, .pdf, .htm,
-html and jpg. In addition, models may be included and these will have file extensions that depend on the
software used to create them. Below, find information on how to access freeware/demo/trial versions for
regularly used software from several system dynamics software publishers. Follow the links within the
descriptions below to the software needed to view the files.
In following chart, find the three-letter extension of the file name, then the software you need to view the
file.
| File Name Extension: | itm, stm [sip [sim | .vmf, .vpa, vpm, .mdl |
| Software Needed: iThink, STELLA | Powersim Studio | Powersim | Vensim
STELLA/iThink by isee systems:
http://www.iseesystems.com/player
This link will navigate you to the FREE isee Player. The isee Player lets you view, run, print and share
both STELLA (.stl) and iThink (.itm) models. Available in both Windows and Macintosh versions, the
isee Player allows exploration of all model layers - map, model, equation, and interface, and never "times
out."
Powersim Studio by Powersim Solutions:
http://www. powersimsolutions.com/SystemD ynamicConference.aspx
A free and fully-functional 30-day trial version of Powersim Studio 8 Enterprise edition is available for
download. Studio 8 contains an array of new and exciting features. In addition it can:
e Perform scenario control, optimization, risk analysis and risk management
Try setting up a user interface and test it in presentation mode
Include events, command buttons and actions to set up a cockpit
Keep your model intemational using multiple languages on your model
Share different levels of information using password protection
Connect to any datasets, Excel, Access, Oracle and SAP NetWeaver
Note that a Studio 8 installation will automatically replace any previous version of Studio.
Vensim by Ventana Systems:
http://www.vensim.com/reader.html
The Vensim Model Reader can be used to open V ensim models which are files with extension .vmf, .vpm
or .vpa. This is free software which will allow you to view and simulate models changing the assumptions
but not model structure. Many models (.vmf, .vpm, and .mdl) can also be opened using Vensim PLE
which is free for educational use. Both PLE and the Reader are available from:
http://www.vensim.com/freedownload.html
26 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
PhD Colloquium Presentations
Plenary Presentations
Katherine Dykes
dykesk@ mitedu
MIT
36 Joy StR 3
Boston MA 02114 USA
Sondoss E] Sawah
selsawah@ student. adfa.edu.au
Australian Defence Force Academy/UNSW
School of ITEE
Northcott Drive
Campbell ACT 2612 Australia
Jinjing Huang
colorfulginger@ hotmail.com
NUI, Galway
155 Laurel Park, Newcastle Road
Galway Ireland
Tommy Ka Kit Ngai
tkkn2@ cam.ac.uk
University of Cambridge
Centre for Sustainable Development
Department of Engineering
Cambridge UK
Oliver Schmitzer
oschmitzer@ googlemail.com
University of Mannheim
Industrieseminar $ 202 - 215
Schloss 68131 Mannheim Germany
Mimicking Network Structure Effects in a
System Dynamic Model of C ompeting
Technologies
"Simply, we need to build a new dam:" Is it
really "SIMPLE"?
The Ford Method: A Sensitivity Analysis
Approach
Expanding A doption of Drinking Water
Treatment Systems in Developing C ountries:
A Case Study from Tamil Nadu, India
Resource allocation in multi-project
management
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 27
PhD Colloquium Presentations
Poster Presentations
Alicia Bunger
abunger@ gwbmail.wustl.edu
Washington University in St Louis
321 Barrington Square Apt E
St Louis MO 63122 USA
Luis David Galicia
ldgalicia@ miners.utep.edu
University of Texas at E] Paso
5873 Acacia Cir Apt. 1627
El Paso TX 79912 USA
Ozge Karanfil
ozgekaranfil@ gmail.com
Simon Fraser University
4342 Pender Street
Bumaby BC V5C 2M6 Canada
Anna Mayerthaler
anna.mayerthaler@ tuwien.ac.at
Vienna University of Technology
Ottakringerstrasse 19/19
1160 Vienna Austria
Thokozani T. Simelane
tsimelane@ai.org.za
Africa Institute of South Africa
PO Box 630
Pretoria 0001 South A frica
Muhammad Aman Ullah
m.aman@ auckland.ac.nz
Department of Information Systems and
Operations Management
Private Bag 92019
Auckland New Zealand
Partnership Development Among Mental
Health Agencies
Methodology for Bus Rapid Transit Ridership
Estimation and Deployment Phases
Implementation
A system dynamics model of body weight
regulation and obesity
Policy scenario modelling with the land-use
transport interaction model MARS Austria
Systems Dynamics approach of understanding
Africa's evolving social systems: special
reference to South A frica
How can a systems perspective aid an
understanding of corruption?
28 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
_ Parallel and Poster Session Papers _
Atefeh Adl
adl.atefeh@ gmail.com
Isfahan University of Technology
Khomeinishahar
Isfahan Iran
Jamshid Parvizian
jparvizian@ gmail.com
Isfahan University of Technology
Isfahan 8415683111 Iran
Ainara Alvarez
aalvarez@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - Universidad de Navarra
Paseo Manuel Lardizahal 13
20018 Donostia-San Sebastian
Spain
José M. Torres
jmtorres@ tecnun.es
Tecnun University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian
Spain
Ana Lauge
alauge@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal no13
20018 San Sebastian
Spain
Drought and Production Capacity of Meat: A
system Dynamics A pproach
The persisting drought in Iran, where the livestock are mostly fed by
natural pastor-lands, has caused a higher rate of sheep slaughter, thus an
increase in the supply of meat and a reduction of the price in the Summer
2008. On the other hand, the higher slaughter diminished the available
level of the cattle which in turn reduced the production capacity of the
following year. This is inherent and unique to this production sector that
the production capacity depends on the inventory. This study, based on a
modified supply chain dynamic model, indicates that the short term
effect of drought is a lower meat price; however, in the coming season a
sudden increase in the price should be expected. It can be concluded that
using right policies, such as importing provender, could save the hardly
recoverable production capacity of the country.
Russian-Ukrainian Gas C onflict Case Study
The following paper examines the ongoing gas conflict between Russia
and Ukraine. Europe have become collateral damage, as large part of the
natural gas destined for the EU pass through Ukraine. Numerous
precursors preceded the crisis; nevertheless, some countries have not
taken steps in advance to mitigate consequences. Failing to adopt a wide
perspective, both timely and structurally wise, can lead to major crises.
This research analyzes the lifecycle of this crisis and focuses on the
evolution of crisis' variables. Causal Loop Diagrams are built to
represent the structure that possibly originated this crisis. The
information gathered here could also be used as an input for future
modeling and simulation exercises.
Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegi@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia
Spain
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 29
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Lianjun An
alianjun@ us.ibm.com
IBM
TJ Watson Research Center
1101 Kitchawan Rd Rte 134
Y orktown Heights NY 10598
USA
On modeling some essential dynamics of the
subprime mortgage crisis
We develop a Systems Dynamics model for capturing the key
interactions involved in the evolution of the subprime mortgage crisis. In
particular, we propose an aggregate modeling resolution that involves
three main sub-systems, namely, an aggregate banking system, an
Dhar shankar Subr
dharmash@ us.ibm.com
IBM
TJ. Watson Research Center
1101 Kitchawan Rd
Y orktown Heights NY 10598
USA
Alan King
kingaj@ us.ibm.com
IBM TJ. Watson Research Center
1101 Kitchawan Rd Rte 134
Y orktown Heights NY 10598
USA
David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
101 Milne Hall
135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 318 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222
Colin Eden
colin@ gsb.strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Graduate School of Business
199 Cathedral Street
Glasgow G4 0QU
UK
housing market and an economic environment. The model
exposes the physics of each individual system as well as influences and
interactions among the three systems. The model is useful for developing
intuition about the evolution of the crisis as well as the lagged timing and
magnitude of the effects of various corrective actions, such as an
economic stimulus package. We present three scenarios using simulated
data. In the first scenario, we establish an equilibrium state that
represents a steady state normal condition. In the second scenario, we
introduce a step function for the availability of subprime loans and hold
it for certain duration. This practice eventually culminates in a credit
crisis, where the aggregate bank experiences insolvency. In the third
scenario, we study the application of an economic stimulus, which steers
the entire system back to a new equilibrium state. We note that the
economic stimulus needs to be larger than a certain critical lower
threshold in order to enable the system towards reaching a new
equilibrium.
ScriptsMap: A Tool for Designing Multi-
Method Strategy Workshops
This poster presents ScriptsMap, a tool developed to facilitate the design
of workshops using system dynamics group model building and group
problem structuring using a group strategy support tool (Decision
Explorer). The poster explains the genesis and purpose of ScriptsMap as
a means for articulating an extensive range of activities (scripts) useful
when designing model-building workshops. The map comprises building
blocks allowing a group facilitation team to construct, with the maps aid,
a thoughtful workshop design. The poster will illustrate the ScriptsMaps
structure through two multi- method workshop designs, which in their
own right provide i means of combini: I
Fran Ackermann
fran@ mansci strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Dept of Management Science
40 George Street
Glasgow G1 1QE
UK
30 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
101 Milne Hall
135 Westem Avenue
Albany NY 12222
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 318 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222
Colin Eden
colin@ gsb.strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Graduate School of Business
199 Cathedral Street
Glasgow G4 0QU
UK
Edward G. Anderson
edward.anderson@ mccombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas
McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Station B6500
Austin TX 78712 USA
Daniel Goldsmith
goldsmith@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
50 Memorial Drive E53-323
Cambridge MA 02139 USA
Nitin R. J oglekar
joglekar@ bu.edu
Boston University
School of Management
595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston MA 02215 USA
Pablo Azar
pazar@allstate.com
Allstate Insurance Corp Headquarters
2775 Sanders Road
Northbrook IL 60062 USA
Using Stakeholder Goals and Dynamics to
Surface Feedback Loops
Exploring a particular set of paths in ScriptsMap, this poster describes
and illustrates a new multi-method approach designed to help elicit
feedback loops in a group model building or strategy support workshop.
The approach uses a GSS tool (Decision Explorer) to map stakeholder
goals, system conditi and stakehold to goal-gaps. The
poster will show the process as it was used in a recent group strategy
support workshop.
Fran Ackermann
fran@ manscistrath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Dept of Management Science
40 George Street
Glasgow G1 1QE
UK
Panel Discussion: Distributed Talent
Management: Planning, Metrics and Oversight
The last decade has seen the rise in many types of distributed talent
management challenges -- global sites, disrupted demand, integration
ae 3 ilaboration and ‘cation tchnoloai
political pressures and threats from talent poaching and/or downsizing.
In this session, we wish to host a set of presentations followed by lively
discussion generated by questions and dialogue with the audience. The
presentation of case studies will describe three separate system dynamics
models aimed to examining policy options and allied metrics. The first
case examines the challenges at an insurance company while
implementing a scorecard in the face of an unbalanced evolution of a
population of agents across | hic market
The second case add the of software devel
maintenance at another large insurance company, where "cause and
effect" are separated in time and space. These characteristics make
attributions about system improvement difficult and can impede the
ability to manage human resources. The third case describes the
unanticipated side effects of global demand growth when a leading
software services firm is faced with poaching of workforce from its most
productive talent segments.
and
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 31
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Edward G. Anderson
edward.anderson@ mccombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas
McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Station B6500
Austin TX 78712 USA
John Pastor Ansah
pastorkobina@ yahoo.com
University of Bergen
Fantoft Studentboliger Box 823
5075 Bergen
Norway
Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de
University of St. Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
9000 St Gallen
Switzerland
G. Antonelli
antonell@ unimol.it
Universita degli Studi del Molise
Edoardo Mollona
emollona@ cs.unibo.it
Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Department of Computer Science
Mura Anteo Zamboni 7
40127 Bologna
Ttaly
Modeling Insurgencies and C ounterinsurgencies
A system dynamics model of insurgencies is built using the US. Army
and Marine Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 3-24) as a basis. It must,
however, be supplemented by additional theory from outside sources to
enable calibration to a historical data set. Parameter and policy analyses
are conducted. These highlight the criticality of some features of
insurgencies described by FM 3-24 such as the importance of obtaining
and maintaining popular support and employing sufficient
counterinsurgency forces to gather intelligence. Other features, not
highlighted by FM 3-24, also are shown to be important such as how
quickly does violence escalate during the insurgency and how easily can
detained/eliminated insurgents be replaced. Finally, contraindicating the
expectations of FM 3-24 and other conventional wisdom, results from
optimization simulations suggest that the level of force used in a
counterinsurgency should increase only once a preparatory period of
intelligence gathering by those same forces has been completed.
Economic Growth Accounting: Policy Analysis
of Transitional Dynamics
The GDP growth pattern of Ghana from 1960 to 2000 shows a
rollercoaster behavior. Because of this, the Ghanaian population today is
almost as poor as it was then. This phenomenon has been studies by
several researches all of whom have created important but atomistic
insights about this issue. We want to offer a richer explanation. The
paper develops an economic growth model to explain the GDP growth
pattern in the relevant time frame. We are (1) able to replicate the
historical GDP growth, (2) use the model to estimate the contribution of
factors of production and labor productivity to economic growth, (3)
offer a consistent causal explanation about the growth pattern, and (4)
conduct a counterfactual policy analysis offering insights about what
could have been possible if different policies would have been executed.
In conclusion, the main cause of slow growth in Ghana from 1960-2000
was the declining labor productivity and low physical capital stock. The
low physical capital base and lack of innovative production processes of
the workforce, is responsible for the poor growth performance. The
counterfactual policy analysis puts forth that a policy to encourage
through i to save is most successful.
Diverging Incentives and Evolutionary
Dynamics within Supply-C hain
The relationship between a supply-chain and a main contractor within a
local cluster of production unveils elements of complexity. While fates
of supply-chain and main contractor are often interlaced, as the
relationship unfolds dynamically incentives may diverge dramatically.
This paper addresses a dilemma main contractor faces in taking
decisions conceming technology transfer towards local suppliers. On the
one hand, main contractor has an incentive in transferring technology
32 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
L. Moschera
moschera@ uninav.it
Universita degli Studi di Napoli Parth
Santiago Arango
saarango@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Cra 80#65-223 Bloque M8-211
Medellin
Colombia
Jaime Andres Castaneda Acevedo
jacasta2@ unalmed.edu.co
Carrera 82 A No. 21-159
La Calleja casa No. 155
Medellin Antioquia
Colombia
Santiago Arango
saarango@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Cra 80#65-223 Bloque M8-211
Medellin
Colombia
Felipe Abaunza Osorio
fabaunz@ gmail.com
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Cra 80 #65-223 Bl M8A.
Medellin
Colombia
Santiago Arango
saarango@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Cra 80#65-223 Bloque M8-211
Medellin
Colombia
with the aim at increasing technological content of input supplied
locally. On the other hand, as the technological content of the supply-
chain increases, local suppliers may have an incentive in diversifying
their sales towards global clients thereby increasing their bargaining
power. Grounding on formal modelling and computer simulation, this
paper explores different scenario emerging by the matching of different
policies of technology transfer and different attitudes of supply-chain
towards diversification of sales towards global clients. We explore the
circumstances in which cooperative behaviour leads to more efficient
scenario than non-cooperative behaviours.
Capacity Utilization in Electricity Market
Behavior: An Experimental Analysis
This paper describes a laboratory experiment to study the effect of
variable capacity utilization over the behavior of an electricity market.
Capacity utilization is an important factor in order to explain the multiple
cycle periods observed in many industries. Investors make investment
and capacity utilization decisions in an expanded Cobweb market of the
power generation sector. The experiment has four year investment lag,
power generation capacity with a sixteen year lifetime and it does not
assume full capacity utilization. Cyclical behavior results in three out six
markets. Tests show that one market presents well-defined and
pronounced cyclical behavior, while other two markets present minor
oscillations. Results suggest that varying capacity utilization favors
stability, rather than a cyclical behavior.
A System Dynamics Model for the World C offee
Market
Commodity prices cycles have a negative effect in developing countries.
This paper applies system dynamics to study the long term cyclical
behavior of coffee price. The model is based in Meadows (1970) and
Deaton and Laroque (1996, 2003). The model includes the price
dynamics, investments, capacity, and demand. Our model is the first
stages and not fully calibrated. Nevertheless, the model provides a better
understanding of the commodity cycles, focusing on the internal
structure of the system. The model replicates the reference mode, thus,
coffee price exhibits cyclical behavior in the long term. In particular, we
have founded very difficult the estimation of investment functions;
therefore, future work will be focus on validation and use of laboratory
experiments to estimate investment function with coffee farmers.
System Dynamics and Laboratory Experiments
This paper is a review of research on the application of laboratory
methods to System Dynamics (SD). Although laboratory methods have
been used in psychology for many years, our review focuses on the
laboratory experiments developed from the experimental economics field
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 33
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Yris Olaya
yolayam@ unal.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Cra 80 No 65-223 M8(A)
Facultad de Minas
Medellin
Colombia
Jaime Andres Castaneda Acevedo
jacasta2@ unalmed.edu.co
Carrera 82 A No. 21-159
La Calleja casa No. 155
Medellin Antioquia
Colombia
Stefano Armenia
stefano.armenia@ uniroma2.it
CATTID, Sapienza University of Rome
Via Pescosolido 168
00158 Rome
Ttaly
Diego Falsini
diego falsini@ uniroma2.it
Giulia Oliveri
giulia.oliveri1983@ hotmail it
Kailash Balnac
kailash.balnac@ gmail.com
University of Technology Mauritius
La Tour Koenig
Pointe aux Sables Mauritius
Chandradeo Bokhoree
c.bokhoree@ utm.intnet.mu
University of Technology, Mauritius
School of Sustainable Dev and Tourism
La Tour Koenig
Pointe aux Sables Mauritius
Prakash Deenapanray
sanjudeenapanray@ gmail.com
Ecological Living In Action
74 Societe La Fleche
La Gaulette Mauritius
Andrea Marcello Bassi
ab@ millennium-institute.org
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650
Arlington VA 22201
and on their contributions to SD and the management sciences. In
particular, we examine the use of experimental methods for estimating
the decisions used by SD models, and the intersection of SD and
laboratory experiments in theory testing and theory building.
Energy Management in Residential Buildings: a
system dynamics approach
Due to rapid lation growth, ilability of and climate
changes, energy saving has become of great interest especially during the
last 30 years. One of the most evident human activities weighing down
on pollution and energy consumption is the construction of residential
buildings. However, the construction phase is but one of the stages in
wasting In fact, once a residential settlement has been built, it
is time for the dweller to use up resources. In our work, we propose an
analysis of the socio-technical mechanisms which move people towards
energy efficiency and the technology innovation that make it possible.
We will then describe the model structure and the various leverages that
the users are able to handle during the innovation process. Finally, a
discussion of results and implications for future research will also be
provided.
A System Dynamics Model of the Mauritian
Power Sector
Mauritius, a Small Island Developing State and one of the most
successful economies in A frica, has experienced sustained economic
growth during the past three decades. Mauritius’ power sector has
evolved considerably during this period to cater for increases in
electricity demand following such growth. The island has continuously
invested in additional capacity to meet such increases in demand in the
medium term. Approximately 78% of Mauritius’ electricity needs are
met through imported energy sources, mainly oil and coal. However
there are increasing concerns about price volatility and security of supply
from such sources. Policymakers are thus committed tow:
sustainable energy development plan for the country. In this line,
authorities have embarked into elaborating a comprehensive energy
policy for Mauritius. Threshold-21 (T21) is a tool that applies system
dynamics to aid in policy making in an integrated manner. This paper
documents the first iteration in the development of a power sector model
for Mauritius based on T21 models. The aim is to provide a description
of the Mauritian power landscape and translate the same into a system
dynamics model. Future work includes expansion of the model to cover
the whole of the Mauritian energy system and to do policy analysis.
34 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Yaman Barlas
ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University
Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul
Turkey
Onur Ozgin
onur.ozgun@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University
Industrial Engineering Department
Bebek 34342 Istanbul
Turkey
Suat Bog
Steffen Bayer
s.bayer@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Tanaka Business School
South Kensington Campus
London SW7 2AZ UK
Sally Brailsford
$.C.Brailsford@ soton.ac.uk
University of Southampton
School of Management
Room 4054 Building 2 Highfield Campus
Southampton S017 1BJ UK
Allyson Beall
abeall@ wsu.edu
Washington State University
344 NW Harrison St
Pullman WA 99163 USA
Andrew Ford
forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
Environmental Science
PO Box 644430
Pullman WA 99164-4430 USA.
Automating Model Testing and Improvement:
SiS Software
System dynamics model validity consists of two very different types:
structural and behavioral. A crucial property of system dynamics method
is that structure validity must precede behavior validity; the latter has no
value without the former. But the dilemma is that structural validity
testing is in general highly qualitative, subjective, hence not suitable for
algorithmic automation. An important exception is indirect structure tests
that combine the strength of structural orientation with the advantage of
being quantifiable. These structure-oriented behavior tests seem to be the
most promising direction for research on model validation. We
developed a software package at Bogazii University, SiS software that
does automatic dynamic pattern recognition and indirect structure
testing. SiS also does automated parameter calibration with respect to a
given (desired) dynamic pattern, hence can help with policy
improvement design. In this presentation we will show the main features
of SiS by a demonstration of the new version of the software.
Examining the role of simulation models in
health planning
Simulation models can occupy very different roles modelling in the
planning of health care infrastructure and services. They can be a close
replica of the real world used to produce exact answers or as a tool in
building consensus among stakeholders with different views and
objectives, as a boundary object. The role a simulation model can have
in a decision process is constrained by the degree to which the model and
its results are accessible to stakeholders with no or limited experience
with modelling. The visual ion of the model and its results are
likely to be of a major influence on the accessibility of the model.
However, whether a visually more accessible model will result in
improved stakeholder buy-in, creative problem solving and more
effective decision processes remains an empirical question. This paper
draws on a currently ongoing research project on the use of system
dynamics and discrete event simulation tools in health care and presents
some early conceptual work on the role of modelling in the planning
process.
Reports from the Field: Assessing the art and
science of participatory environmental modeling
Since the early work of Tansley (1935) and others we have embraced the
concept that an ecosystem is a synergy of its parts and the relationship
between those parts. Many science-centric approaches have been
developed to address ecosystem management while at the same time
taking into account the needs of the public. Participatory environmental
modeling that uses system dynamics is an effective process for
facilitating the integration of ecosystem science and social concems.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 35
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Michael Bernard
miberna@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS-1188
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA
Asmeret Bier
asmeret@ wsu.edu
Washington State University
460 NE Maiden Lane #5
Pullman WA 99163
USA
Enzo Bivona
enzo.bivona@ unipa it
University of Palermo
Via Mazzini 59
90139 Palermo Italy
Sonia Cristina Herrera Daza
soniablus@ hotmail.com
Universita Degli Studi di Palermo
Calle 11 #29-27
B/La Aurora
San Juan de Pasto Colombia
Using the art of facilitation and the science of model building the
methodology creates a common language that integrates various types of
information into simulation models. This paper describes a diversity of
case studies, modeling and facilitation technique, and the inventiveness
of practitioners who adjust their efforts to the needs of the stakeholders
and the environmental problems they are facing. Participatory modelers
who use system dynamics create customized platforms through which
stakeholders can simultaneously explore their system, stressors to that
system, potential tipping points, whether it is fragile or resilient, and any
variety of potential policies that address the environment, social
concems, and long-term sustainability.
Model the Interaction Between Leaders and
Society During C onflict Situations
This paper describes an effort by Sandia National Laboratories to model
and simulate populations of specific countries of interest as well as the
population’s primary influencers, such as government and military
leaders. To accomplish this, high definition cognition models are being
coupled with an aggregate model of a population to produce a prototype,
dynamic cultural representation of a specific country of interest. The
objective is to develop a systems-level, intrinsic security capability that
will allow analysts to better assess the potential actions, counteractions,
and influence of powerful individuals within a country of interest before,
during, and after a conflict event.
Dynamic Simulation of a Thermal Water
Quality Trading Program and Implications for
Policy Design
This paper describes the Riparian Shading Simulator, a system dynamics
model of a thermal water quality trading program, in which point sources
are allowed to offset their effluent by paying landowners to plant shade
trees. The model is used to explore consequences of policy designs with
varying trading ratios and upstream-only rules. Results from the model
can be used to help choose a trading ratio that balances the goals of
enhancing ecosystem services and reducing costs. The model also
indicates that policy makers should be careful about using upstream-only
Tules, since they can potentially cause shading to be concentrated in
upstream areas and contribute to downstream hotspots.
Implementing a sustainable C SR Strategy
through a System Dynamics Perspective:
evidences from a C olombian case-study
During last decades, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) strategies
received a growing attention from both businesses and non profit
organisations. However, very often organisations fail to correctly
implement a successful CSR strategy. Through the analysis of a case-
study, this paper tries to demonstrates how a CSR strategy could fail in
36 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Laura J. Black
Ijblack@ alum.mitedu
Montana State University
PO Box 3662
Bozeman MT 59772-3662
USA
Don Greer
drgreer@ greerblackcompany.com
Greer Black Company
PO Box 3607
Bozeman MT 59772-3607
USA
Inge L. Bleijenbergh
i bleijenbergh@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Institute for Management Research
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Hubert Korzilius
hkorzilius@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Institute for Management Research
PO Box 9108 6500 HK
Nijmegen The Netherlands
Piet Verschuren
p.verschuren@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Institute for Management Research
PO Box 9108 6500 HK
Nijmegen The Netherlands
the long term if a open-loop logic is adopted. On the contrary, by making
explicit the feedback loops structure underlying a CSR strategy, the
system dynamics approach is likely to better support decision makers in
ing effective CSR ies able to foster i long
term growth. A fter discussing the main benefits and limits of the CSR
concept reported in literature, the case-study is introduced and the
method adopted to introduce a CSR strategy is explored. Then, such an
approach is reconsidered in a feedback perspective and presented with
the study i i d. Finally, conclusions and further
remarks are outlined.
You meant what? Socially constructing meaning
with ongoing interactions
Begun as a consulting project to resolve “disconnects” within large
aerospace programs, this research effort asserts that we can gain new
perspectives on innovative knowledge-work through simulations that
represent the causal relations suggested by George Mead’s foundational
theory of how we create shared meaning. In Mead’s interactionism we
find principles and that underlie hensive social
theories of structuration and practice as well as many studies on
knowledge work, king, and decisi g. In
earlier work, we produced a formal theory represented in a ee
model of what exacerbates and reduces “disconnects” among four
dent in their i ive work. Here we describe
how we collected and analyzed qualitative data in which the model was
grounded; identified constructs in the data and literature relevant to the
presenting problem; and proceeded with model-building and analysis,
particularly detailing how we “traversed” from rich, qualitative empirical
data to themes and higher-level abstractions useful as constructs in a
theoretically informed simulation model. We now carry theory-building
a step further by revisiting sociological theories of meaning-creation and
knowledge-construction to probe how they inform and re-form our
understanding and provide new insights about managing knowledge-
work.
The Validity and Utility of Participatory
Research Strategies
Participatory research strategies, like Group Model Building, are of
increasing importance in social science research. These strategies are
especially used to support practice oriented research, where decision-
making needs to be supported or solutions for practical problems need to
be found. We argue that participatory research strategies can be
differentiated into practice based and expert based research. They offer
suitable alternatives for mainstream data based types of research to
tackle practical problems. In this paper we formulate methodological
criteria that are necessary to evaluate the practical utility of research
strategies and the extent in which they produce valid results for practice
oriented research.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 37
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Kevin Boettcher
kevin_boettcher@ verizon.net
Vertex Inc.
101 Arlington Road
Paoli PA 19301
Justin Boudreau
justboud@ WPI.EDU
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609-2280
USA
Eugene Choi
echoi722@ gmail.com
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609-2280
USA
Ravindra Datta
rdatta@ WPLLEDU
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609-2280
USA
Oljora Rezhdo
oljora_r@WPILEDU
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609-2280
USA
Manuel Bouza
manuel.bouza@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI)
Dynamics of Innovative Systems
OVGA 115
CH-5232 Villien PSI
Switzerland
A Systems-Oriented Analysis of the C orporate
Tax Department Data C ollection W ork Process
System Dynamics modeling techniques are applied to examine
underlying dynamics affecting corporate tax department operations.
Focusing on the complex work process of collecting data to make book
to tax adjustments, a model is constructed that illuminates the cause and
effect impact on tax department performance of having errors in
collected data, and of the iterations required to resolve these errors. The
model provides a basis for examining and justifying investment in
process improvement alternatives that can not only have a financial
impact on the enterprise, but also reduce risk with respect to meeting
Sarbanes Oxley imposed standards.
Platinum Supply and the Growth of Fuel Cell
Vehicles
This report addresses problems associated with U.S. fuel cell vehicle
production and a limited platinum supply. Polymer Electrolyte
Membrane (PEM) fuel cells, which use a platinum catalyst, could place
strain on the platinum market if fuel cell vehicles are widely produced.
We developed a dynamic hypothesis, identified causal relationships, and
created a system dynamics model in iThink. Based on this model, we
found platinum prices would likely reach $50,000 per kilogram in 30
years and the cost of platinum for a fuel cell vehicle would be $2,500. At
this price, the platinum barrier is surmountable if the cost of other FCV
components is drastically reduced. If a world FCV market takes hold, it
was concluded that only about 15% global market penetration is feasible.
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
Endogenous Transformation in the Automobile
Industry
Established industries develop and mature along continuous trajectories
defined by the underlying technological paradigm relevant to serve the
value network of the industry. Technological discontinuities and/or
preference shifts at the higher levels of the value network may triggera
38 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
silvia.ulli-beer@ psi.ch
PSI
Roethelweg 11
5303 Wuerenlingen
Switzerland
Newton Paulo Bueno
npbueno@ ufv.br
Federal University of Vicosa
Dept de Economia Campus Universitario
36571-000 Vicosa Minas Gerais
Brazil
Santiago Caicedo
caicedos@ gmail.com
Avianca
Calle 103A 17-36 Apt 306
Bogota Colombia
Fabio Andrés Diaz Pabon
fa-diaz@ uniandes.edu.co
Universidad de los Andes
Calle 68 #70C-73
Cundinamarca
Colombia
technological transformation in the industry. Depending on different
circumstances, the technological transformation process may have
significant impact on the industry, reverting the continuous maturation
process, creating new structures and changing the way business is done
in the future. Here we describe the transformation process that is evident
in today's automobile industry, which we call Endogenous
Transformation, and compare it two transformation processes previously
described in the literature (Disruptive and Radical Transformation). In an
Endogenous Transformation process, a new technology is developed in a
joint effort by most organizations in the industry to substitute the old
technology, with which their value network cannot be served any longer
in the future. Important conditions for an Endogenous Transformation
process to develop is that new knowledge must be effectively protectable
from being freely copied by the competition and that new knowledge is
traded between. izati ing significant knowled
asymmetries in the industry.
System Dynamics and the role of History in
economic growth theory
Recent literature in economic growth suggests that a theoretical research
convergence among historical studies and neo-growth theory is presently
taking place. We argue in this paper that system dynamics, due to be a
flexible methodology, may be an instrument for helping to bridge those
two strands of thoughts. The paper begins for presenting a stylized
historical background for endogenous growth theory which is perhaps
one the more appealing modem interpretation of growth process
available. A simple endogenous growth model based on this historical
background is then provided and re-written in system dynamics
language. An enlarged version of the basic growth model is next
presented and it is shown how to assess the strength of the different
feedback loops involved in the process of economic growth. The
conclusive section of the paper finally suggests that system dynamics
can be an i Il y tool for ding and perhaps
enhancing economic growth in less developed countries.
Too early, too quickly: Impact of short-term
decisions in fleet renewal programs
Decisions made in the air transport industry are defined by perceptions.
Airlines order aircraft when they believe the conditions to upgrade their
fleet are appropriate in terms of profitability and market opportunities.
However, the financial performance of an airline can be easily affected
by several variables. Many types of delays are decisive in the income
and expense structure of the organization. Fleet renewal, for instance, is
a very lengthy process, since deliveries usually take five years from the
date the order is placed. This paper uses System Dynamics to evaluate
the performance of different strategies concerning fleet renewal in a
commercial airline, taking into account the complex interdependence
between variables and the delays involved in the process. The simulation
model is absolutely based on real information retrieved from databases
of aviation authorities and actual airlines in Colombia.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 39
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Robert Y. Cavana
bob.cavana@ vuw.ac.nz
Victoria University of Wellington
PO Box 600
Wellington
New Zealand
Thomas H. Adams
thomas.adams@ scionresearch.com
Scion
49 Sala Street
Rotorua 3046
New Zealand
Francesco Ceresia
feeresia@ libero..it
University of Palermo
Via Croce Rossa 33
90144 Palermo
Ttaly
Kirandeep Chahal
kirandeep.chahal@ brunel.ac.uk
22 Craneswater
Hayes Middlesex UB3 5HP
UK
Tillal Eldabi
tillal.eldabi@ brunel.ac.uk
Brunel University
A Qualitative System Dynamics Analysis of the
Effects of an Emissions Trading Scheme on the
New Zealand Forestry Value Chain
As part of New Zealands obligations to the Kyoto Protocol, New
Zealand has developed an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) as a
mechanism to reduce its national greenhouse gas footprint, and to
encourage and support global action on climate change. The forestry
sector in New Zealand was the first sector to enter the ETS, effective
from 1 January 2008. So far many forest owners in New Zealand have
been slow to join the scheme. To investigate this situation further, a
systems thinking group model building workshop was held to discuss the
effects of the ETS on the New Zealand forestry value chain. A
qualitative system dynamics analysis was undertaken, whereby a range
of relevant issues were generated by a group of stakeholders, and based
on these a set of causal variables were identified. These showed a strong
bias towards an economic viewpoint of the basic issue being examined.
Causal loop diagrams were made from these variables, and the dominant
loops were briefly analysed. This paper will discuss some of the insights
gained from this project to date. Keywords: Systems thinking, qualitative
system dynamics, New Zealand forestry value chain, carbon
sequestration, carbon dioxide, emissions trading.
A Model of Goal Dynamics in Organizations: a
case study
This work is an attempt to go ahead on a suitable system dynamics
model for goal dynamics in organizations proposed by Barlas &
Y asarcan (2008). Even if the proposed model doesn’t have any
pretension to be exhaustive, the main objective of this paper is to
propose a model of goal dynamics in which Goal Setting, Management
by Objectives and Training are viewed as human resources practices able
to enhance workers’ goal c i and therefore, ional
performance. In the first part of this paper, an analysis of Goal Setting
Theory and the role of goal setting practice in enhancing worker's
performance are remarked. In the second part, the case-study, the causal
loop and a quantitative model of goal dynamics in organizations are
described. In the third part, behaviour reproduction test, optimization
analysis for parameter estimation and scenario analysis are presented.
Limits of this research and conclusion are finally discussed.
Understanding the impact of whiteboard on
A&E department operations using hybrid
simulation
This paper uses hybrid simulation to evaluate the impact of a whiteboard
on the workflow of an A&E department. Hybrid simulation in this
context is defined as the integrated use of discrete event simulation and
40 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Abhijit Mandal
‘A.Mandal@ mdx.ac.uk
Middlesex University Business School
Business & Management
The Burroughs Hendon
London NW4 2AE
UK
Gaurav S. Chaudhari
gauravc@ viedu
University of Dubai
PO Box 14143
Dubai
UAE
Robert H. Sturges
sturges@ vtedu
Virginia Tech
Department of Industrial & Systems Eng
103 Durham Hall
Blacksburg VA 24061
USA
Corina Sandu
csandu@ vtedu
Department of Mechanical Engineering
104 Randolph Hall
Blacksburg VA 24061
A
Jian Hung Chen
je.ncau@ gmail.com
National Chi Nan University
470 Dah Shieh Road
Puli Nan Tou
Taiwan ROC
Yijen Chen
yichen.sd@ gmail.com
Industrial Technology Research Inst.
195 Sec 4 Chung Hsing Rd Chutung
Taiwan 31040
China
system dynamics; we illustrate how discrete event simulation and system
dynamics, by themselves, are incapable of meeting the objective.
"Parsimonious" and "divide and conquer" principles for model-building
have been followed. We also highlight how a slight modification to the
"divide and conquer" approach can assist multi-method users. This paper
has deployed novel approach of hybrid simulation in the context of
healthcare. It attempts to link value proposition of information system
(whiteboard/ electronic patient tracking system) to workflow of A&E
department. Due to technical limitation with respect to automatic
exchange of information between system dynamics and discrete event
simulation, potential of hybrid simulation could not be deployed to
maximum level.
On the underlying structure of system dynamics
models
The underlying structure of system dynamics models is that of a
proportional feedback controller. We propose a broader framework for
system dynamics models, where systems are modeled using a combined
feedback-feedforward structure. While the traditional structure for
system dynamics models only uses proportional feedback of error for
control, the proposed structure for information feedback employs the use
of proportional, integral and derivative (PID) error. Hence, existing
system dynamics models only use a small subset of the proposed
structure for modeling systems. We argue that the proposed structure
provides a more flexible framework for modeling and designing systems.
A System Dynamics Model of the TFT LCD
Industry Development in Taiwan
The TFT LCD (Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display) industry is
one the most rapid growing high-technology industry in recent decades.
The development process of this industry is complex and dynamic,
requiring the accumulation of technology, capital, production capacity,
and human resources. For a late coming country, the development
process also involves tense interactions with the national innovation
systems and international industrial networks. Taiwan has become the
second largest TFT LCD producer within two decades; the underlying
structure behind the success is an interesting topic to explore. This study
used system dynamics to analyze the development process of the
Taiwanese TFT LCD industry. A qualitative model was derived based on
the development history. Implications of this study are also discussed.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 41
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Howard Hao-C hun Chuang
hchuang@ mays.tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
Barthelow Dr Apt 16B
College Station TX 77840
USA
Roengchai Chumai
roengchai.chumai@ ge.com
GE Energy (Thailand) Limited
6th Fl The Seaboard Bldg
2/58 Highway 3191 Maptaphut
Muang Rayong Thailand
Psychological Safety and Group Learning:
Cycle-Time Reduction for Collaborative Product
Development
This study presents a system dynamics analysis of collaborative product
development in a manufacturer-supplier dyad. We conduct a SD-based
case study in Taiwan high-tech electronics where a manufacturer and a
supplier form vertical product development partnerships. The SD inquiry
helps inter- izational project teams und 1 how cognitive and
social factors such as psychological safety, level of collaboration, and
group leaming rather than technical factors such as the deployment of
collaboration software affect the development cycle-time more. We set
up a simulation model and give ions based on simulati
experiments. Simulation results show that higher level of psychological
safety and collaboration contributes to the cycle-time reduction and
facilitates group leaming. Interestingly, the highest level of
psychological safety and collaboration does not necessarily lead to most
group leaming activities. Moreover, project teams exhibit poorer group
learning and team productivity when they merely set up higher
performance goals without enhancing initial level of collaboration and
psychological safety.
System Dynamic Modeling of Plant Maintenance
Strategy in Thailand
This research studied about plant maintenance strategy and condition
monitoring technology used in Thailand compared to typical and
benchmarking plants in United States. The research first reviewed
literature on plant maintenance strategy used in typical and
benchmarking plants in United States and related information of
condition monitoring technology as well as previous research in this
field. A set of questions was used for structured interviews with
respondents working in power generation, petrochemical, refinery and
gas separation plants in Thailand. Next, System Dynamics was used to
model a generic plant maintenance system and then the collected data
from interviews was used as input for the model. The system’s behavior
was studied focusing on plant uptime and maintenance cost. The results
imply that industrial plants in Thailand should reduce preventive
maintenance levels and increase predictive maintenance levels to better
meet the benchmark as well as to increase plant uptime and reduce
maintenance cost. The simulation model can be used as a starting point
for particular plants to study plant maintenance behavior for finding a
suitable maintenance policy. Actual plant data can be used for model
modification and simulation studies. Keywords: Condition monitoring
hnology, Plant mai strategy, Mai
System dynamics.
42 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Thomas D. Clark
tomS4clark@comcast.net
Strategy Associates LLC
10382 West Remington Drive
Littleton CO 80127
USA
Mary C. Jones
jonesm@unt.edu
University of North Texas
1155 Union Circle #305249
Denton TX 76203
USA
Robert W. Zmud
rzmud@ou.edu
University of Oklahoma
Michael F. Price College of Business
Norman OK 73019
USA
Stephen H. Conrad
shconra@sandia,gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis
PO Box 5800 MS 1138
Albuquerque NM 87185-1138
USA
Felicia A. Duran
faduran@sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 0757
Albuquerque NM 87185-0757
USA
Gregory N. Conrad
gnconra@sandia,gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Threat Analysis Technologies
PO Box 5800 MS-1235
Albuquerque NM 87185-1235
USA
David P. Duggan
dduggan@sandia gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Networked Sys Survivability and Assurance
PO Box 5800 MS-0672
Albuquerque NM 87185-0672
USA
Post Adoptive ERP Use Behaviors: A Dynamic
Conceptualization
A ptual model of post enterprise resource planning
systems (ERP) use is developed and operationalized using a dynamic
systems perspective. The primary purpose is to enrich our collective
understanding of how companies might facilitate ERP usage to enhance
the business value of this technology investment after the initial
The 1 model a dynamic information
feedback structure that illustrates the telationships among several post-
adoptive factors including software and work process training,
experiential interventions to facilitate extended and deeper usage, user
software and work process understanding, the extent of features
implementation, the range of ERP system usage, and ERP benefits. The
model is drawn from findings about post-ERP implementation described
in the literature. Pragmatic insights are provided by the conceptual model
and recommendations for future research are discussed.
Modeling the Employee Life Cycle to Address
the Insider Threat
Within an organization, the employee population is the source of
potential malevolent insiders. To investigate the evolution of the insider
within an or we are ping a model of the empl life
cycle. The employee life cycle model i is designed to define and analyze
of the empl with insider security protection
strategies. The model was. exercised for an example scenario that focused
on human resources and personnel security activities, specifically, pre-
hiring and security Pp This modeling effort
provides a framework to understand important interactions,
interdependencies, and gaps in insider protection strategies. This work is
part of a larger effort to develop the basis for an integrated systems-
based process for designing and evaluating effective insider security
systems.
E. Bruce Held
ebheld@sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Office of Counterintelligence
PO Box 5800 MS-1227
Albuquerque NM 87185-1277
USA
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 43
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Xin Dai
daixin@ mail sysu.edu.cn
School of Business Sun Y at-sen Univer
135 Xingang West Road
Guangzhou 510275
China
Jing-hua Xiao
Insxjh@ mail.sysu.edu.cn
Sun Y at-sen University School of Bus.
Kang Xie
mnsxk@ mail sysu.edu.cn
Sun Y at-sen University School of Bus
Brian C. Dangerfield
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford
Salford Business School CORAS
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford M5 4WT UK
Norhaslinda Zainal Abidin
nnorhaslinda@ yahoo.com
University of Salford
205 Heywood St
Manchester M8 OPB UK
Michael A. Deegan
deeganphd@ gmail.com
National Academies of Science
1200 First Street
Unit 222
Alexandria VA 22314 USA
Growth of Enterprise Information Technology
Application: System Dynamics Model and
Empirical Evidence
The present research on the growth of enterprise information technology
applications is to build an effective system dynamics model which can
reveal the internal laws of the general process experienced by an
enterprise integrating the application of modem information technology
and management. Based on the literature review and surveys on more
than two hundred ies, we sum up the mechanism among the
information technology application and key impact factors. In
d | modeling methods of system
act e with the co:
dynamics, a model has been built and tested. The model is also
supported by the empirical evidence.
The Identification of Potential Policy
Intervention Points in the Battle against
Childhood Obesity
The purpose of this research is to discuss how system dynamics and
social marketing together can develop an understanding of how to effect
behavioural change in over-weight and obese children and to reverse the
current trends towards average weight gain. A review of the literature
has uncovered many potential factors which comprise the obesogenic
environment. The relationship between obesity and these factors is
outlined. The research to date has also included a review of system
dynamics work on the obesity issue. At the present stage we have
conceptualised the model to include a population sector, a meal
consumption sector and the consequent energy intake from these meals.
Energy expenditure also plays a part in determining whether an
individual gains weight and this too is addressed. We strive for the
identification of the potential (versus the cost) of social marketing
interventions to change the behaviour of children vis-a-vis food and
physical activity.
Developing Causal Map C odebooks to Analyze
Policy Recommendations: A content analysis of
floodplain management recommendations
Policy recommendations in public policy venues take on several forms.
In some cases, they are well-crafted arguments in favor of a particular
course of action. Strong policy recommendations will frame issues in a
way that lead decision-makers towards a preferred set of solutions. This
paper presents a codebook for developing causal maps from policy
recommendation reports and texts. The codebook's strengths and
weaknesses are discussed, as applied to a set of recommendations made
to reduce flood damages and increase the quality of floodplain
44 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Emre M. Demirezen
emre.demirezen@gmail.com
Texas A&M University
Department of INFO Mays Business School
320 Wehner Building 4217 TAMU
College Station TX 77843
USA
Yaman Barlas
ybarlas@boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University
Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul
Turkey
Sebastian Derwisch
s.derwisch@cgiar.org
University of Bergen
Postbus 7800
Bergen 5020 Norway
Birgit Kopainsky
birgit kopainsky@flury-giuliani.ch
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
PO Box 7800
N-5020 Bergen Norway
Vincenzo Di Giulio
enzo.digiulio@enicorporateuniversity.eni.it
Eni Corporate University
Scuola Mattei
Via S Salvo 1 San Donato Milanese
20097 Milan Italy
Stefania Migliavacca
stefania i
Eni Corporate University
Scuola Mattei
Via S Salvo |
20097 San Donato Milanese MI Italy
management in the U.S. This paper shows how the internal validity of
causal maps constructed from qualitative data will be improved by
developing codebooks that are reliable, consistent, and transparent.
A Simulation Model for Bloodcholesterol
Dynamics and Related Disorders
Cholesterol metabolism and other factors affecting its dynamics
comprise a complex system. The goal of this study is to construct a
system dynamics simulation model that can generate long term dynamics
of cholesterol metabolism in healthy and hypercholesterolemic subjects,
with respect to body weight, diet, and exercise. For both healthy and
hypercholesterolemic subjects, the model generates realistic behavior
patterns for different types of blood cholesterol and body weight. It is
shown in this study that a person can have healthier cholesterol levels by
changing her diet and/or doing more exercise. Also it’s observed that
exercise is more effective than diet even in cases when the subject does
not lose weight. In the case of hypercholesterolemic patients, the model
effectively mimics the way typical drugs work and shows how the
patient can reach healthier cholesterol levels.
Foreign Direct Investment and Spillovers in Seed
Sector Development
The role of foreign direct investment and intellectual property rights in
economic development is discussed widely in the literature. However, an
integrating framework is missing to assess the role of FDI and IPR for
agricultural devel This paper i a framework to assess
the role of FDI and IPR for seed sector development in developing
countries. The impact assessment is carried out with a System Dynamics
model that shows local capacity development to develop new seed
varieties in the scenario of a multinational company penetrating the
market and spillovers occurring. Simulation runs reveal the impact of
IPR on the quantity technology transferred by multinational companies
and on spillovers. The development path of the local industry depends
crucially on the capacity of the local seed sector when the multinational
company enters. A pattern for seed sector development is derived.
Italy facing the EU Emissions Trading Scheme:
some scenarios by the ICE model
This paper focuses on Italy in the context of the Kyoto Protocol.
According to the Annex I to the last National Allocation Plan (NAP),
Italy's emissions are 95 Mt. CO2 eq. above the Kyoto target of -6.5%,
ice. 19% over the goal. This paper proposes a critical analysis of the
Government plan and NAP (National Allocation Plan) based on the
analysis of recent Italian energy history and a wide set of policy
measures that have been stated in formal documents and not
implemented. The study is performed using the ICE (Italy's Carbon
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 45
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Fabio Andrés Diaz Pabon
fa-diaz@ uniandes.edu.co
Universidad de los Andes
Calle 68 #70C-73
Cundinamarca
Colombia
Marcel Dick
m.dick@ frankfurt-school.de
Frankfurt School of Finance & Mgt
Sonnemannstr 9-11
60314 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
James K. Doyle
doyle@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Dept of Social Science
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
Emissions) model. ICE generates energy and carbon emission paths up
to 2020 and elaborates sensitivity analysis on caps, carbon prices, and
other variables. In particular, the research focuses on the Italian power
sector under alternative scenarios of emissions and caps. A conclusion of
our analysis is that a significant purchase of carbon credits on the
international ET market is necessary. Given the troubled Italian public
finance situation, buying carbon credits could represent an unplanned,
and maybe not feasible, heavy burden.
Magical Realism? The Evolution of Paramilitary
Forces in Colombia
This article analyzes the evolution of paramilitary forces in Colombia,
and how under successive efforts from the Colombian government to
tackle problems related to the lack of state presence in the country
(particularly the country-side) there have been successive bullwhip
effects around those efforts. These unintended consequences have
emerged as a result of the inertias related to the socio-political system of
Colombia, and how the paramilitary forces have adapted themselves and
rooted their “institutions” to the new environmental conditions of
Colombia. To analyze these inertias and the bullwhip effects system
dynamics is used.
Reducing income volatility through better
resource-sharing policies: The case of the
investment banking industry
This paper is based on the hypothesis that income volatility is influenced
by endogenous resource sharing policies. The effect of competition on
internal resources on income volatility is examined using the case of the
investment banking industry. A fter analyzing income volatilities of
different industries, specific characteristics of investment banks are
illustrated guided by the service production theory. A fter this, the
income volatility of two product groups of investment banks is analyzed
on an industry wide level. To gain deeper insight into the competition on
a shared resource the two-shower model of Morecroft et al. is analyzed.
By di ing the ad: ions of a lation into an i banking
context, a stylized causal loop diagram is derived. In this last step, a
product group is identified and the real internal production data is broken
down into primary and secondary business units is analyzed. The results
show first indications of a competition from primary and secondary units
on shared sales teams.
Design of a Master of Science Degree Program in
System Dynamics at WPI
Graduate degree programs in system dynamics are rare and thus of
critical importance to the future of the field of system dynamics.
However, to a large extent such programs have not yet been made
46 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Ken Parsons
kparsons@ wpi.edu
WPI
27 Washington Park
Maplewood NJ 07040
USA
Richard G. Dudley
richard.dudley@ attglobal.net
14845 SW Murray Scholls Dr Ste 110
PMB 239
Beaverton OR 97007-9237
USA
Jorge A. Duran Encalada
jorgea.duran@ udlap.mx
Universidad de las Americas Puebla
College of Business Administration
AP No 100
Cholula Puebla 72820 Mexico
Alberto Paucar-Caceres
a.paucar@ mmu.ac.uk
Manchester Metropolitan University
Business School Aytoun Building
Aytoun Street
Manchester M1 3GH UK
transparent to the system dynamics community as a whole. The present
paper describes the design and rationale for one such program, WPI's M.
S. degree program in system dynamics. The goal of the paper is to invite
feedback from the SD community about our specific program as well as
to facilitate wider discussion about the appropriate content, design, and
pedagogy of degree programs and courses in system dynamics.
A Little REDD Model: Reducing Emissions from
Deforestation and Forest Degradation
A simple model allows a rapid comparison of some typical policy
scenarios which might be considered under international programs to
avoid CO2 emissions caused by forest clearing (Reducing Emissions
from D. and Forest D 1 ). These REDD policy
scenarios can also include consideration of CO2 stored in forest
products. The value of avoided emissions can also be determined if
expected carbon prices are included. The model focuses on specific
simple scenario comparisons. The paper also discusses feedback effects
within larger scale setting of CO2 offset availability, CO2 price and
emissions reductions.
A System Dynamic Model to Examine Students’
No-continuation Trends: A Mexican and British
Cases
Universities (and funding bodies) have been trying to tackle high rates of
no-continuation of students in higher education. This paper presents the
results of a preliminary investigation into the different factors affecting
‘non-continuation’ (or its other side, ‘retention’ ) of students in higher
education institutions. For this purpose, we sketch a systems dynamics
(SDy) model and we plan to use data from Universidad de las Americas,
Puebla, Mexico and Manchester Metropolitan University, UK, to run the
model. We report on relevant literature in the area of the managing
retention by assembling a list of retention-related terms; then, relevant
models developed to map students’ satisfaction, are reviewed. A SDy
model that captures the factors affecting the transit of students’ from
to is d; these factors are synthesised into
four sectors as the core of the SDy model: Introduction; Retention;
Motivators; and Finance sector. The study is in a developmental stage,
we expect to implement the model when data is collected. In this paper,
we only report on the literature reviewed and we sketched the SDy
model. This investigation, when completed, will provide a tool to
understand the factors affecting students’ non-continuation and will help
education administrators to manage their retention.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 47
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Varun Dutt
varundutt@ yahoo.com
Carnegie Mellon University
4609 Winthrop Street
DDMLab
Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA
Cleotilde G onzalez
conzalez@ andrew.cmu.edu
Carnegie Mellon University
Social and Decision Sciences Dept
5000 Forbes Ave Porter Hall 208
Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA
Sondoss E] Sawah
s.elsawah@ student adfa.edu.au
Australian Defence Force Academy/UNSW
School of ITEE
Northcott Drive
Campbell ACT 2612 Australia
Alan Charles McLucas
a.mclucas@ adfa.edu.au
Australian Defence Force Academy/UNSW
6 Glossop Crescent
Campbell ACT 2612
Australia
Jason Mazanov
jamazanov@ adfa.edu.au
Australian Defence Force Academy/UNSW
Northcott Dr
Campbell Park ACT 2600
Australia
Setting a Target to Increase or Reduce Carbon-
Dioxide C oncentration is Not the Same: Lessons
for Climate Change
It has been observed that Kyoto protocol has defined CO2 emissions
reduction goals that are less than what they should be. On the other hand,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has set CO2 concentration
stabilization goals that are definitely attainable in the near future but
much above the current CO2 concentration than being below. In this
study, we investigate reasons behind these real world observations in
climate policies using an interactive simulation in a relevant climate
change context (Dynamic Climate Change Simulator or DCCS). DCCS
was used in a laboratory experiment to test participants’ control of CO2
concentration to a realistic goal over 200 simulated years. Participants
confronted two different but symmetric initial values of CO2
concentration stock that provided different degrees of task difficulty:
below the goal (minimum difficulty), and above the goal (maximum
difficulty). Results show that on account of task difficulty participant
performance remained poor under all conditions in the task when
compared to the optimal performance. Also, participants starting above
the goal had poorer performance than those starting below the goal.
Reasons for these results were found in different from optimal
participant emissions trajectories across different conditions. Real world
policy implications of this research are discussed.
Communication about Water Management in
the Australian Capital Territory: A System
Dynamics Modelling Approach
The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) is increasingly threatened by
Tisks to its water security driven by climate change effects, growing
population and water-intensive lifestyle. As an inland territory, the ACT
has few supply options which are economically and ecologically
expensive. Demand management strategies seek to deliver sustainable
consumption patterns. Effective communication is an essential part for
achieving resilient reductions in consumption by raising public
understanding of the problem in order to inform decision making,
stimulate public dialogue and ultimately promote behavioural changes.
Whereas System Dynamics is a promising approach for learning and
ication about water its potential for
communicating systemic risks to the public has not been fully exploited
yet. This ongoing research aims to build a SD Interactive Leaming
Environment (ILE) to help residents in the ACT to develop a systemic
perspective about water management inherent complexity and
uncertainty. This paper describes a structured modelling process adopted
to build the model through a series of knowledge elicitation cycles,
including interviews with stakeholders and electronic workbooks. A key
lesson can be taken from our experience through this modelling effort
that the modelling process must be flexible and adaptable with several
research and real world trade-offs.
48 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Ahmed El-Tagy
a_tagy@ hotmail.com
Hiteknofal
43 R Section 6 Zahraa Maadi Box 50
New Maadi 11742 Cairo
Egypt
Nadiye Ozlem Erdil
nadiye@ binghamton.edu
SUNY Binghamton
2612 Princeton Drive
Vestal NY 13850 USA
C. Robert Emerson
remerson@ binghamton.edu
State Univ of New Y ork Binghamton
Dept Systems Science & Industrial Eng
PO Box 6000
Binghamton NY 13902 USA
Haleh Farhang Matin
haleh.matin@ gmail.com
IUST
Iran University of Science and Technology
S.M. Seyedhosseini
seyedhoseini@ yahoo.com
Iran University of Science and Technology
Managing Marketing Multi-C hannel C onflict to
Maximize Profit in The Egyptian C onsumer
Electronics market
In todays global competition, companies are obliged to go to market
using multiple channels strategy for various reasons. However, channel
conflict is inevitable in multi-channel structures causing sharp decreases
in the demand of one or more channels. In this article, a system dynamic
model was developed to simulate the complex multiple channel structure
and various factors that affect the demand and channel conflict. The
model aims to simulate the real situation of the supplier decision maker
who has to take fast decisions in one of the various variables that he
controls to achieve maximum profits and minimum channel conflict. The
model was validated using real data of a major consumer electronics
supplier in Egypt that has traditional distributors and Hypermarkets as
two different channels. Various policies of inventory allocations in each
channel and different promotion rates were tested in order to achieve the
objective of maximizing supplier profit and minimizing channel conflict.
It was found that the policy of allocating the inventory with the equal
quantity in both channels with a promotion rate of one promotion per
month in the hypermarkets is the optimal policy.
Simulation Modeling of Electronic Health
Records A doption in the U.S. Healthcare System
Increasing the efficiency of the healthcare system in the United States is
an important subject due to rapidly rising costs. Among many
propositions to improve the operation of the system, adoption of
Electronic Health Records is widely discussed. This study uses a system.
dynamics methodology to develop a simulation model of the adoption
process that will allow for the exploration of policies. This paper
presents the development and the preliminary findings of this model.
Service industries lean assessment methodology
using dynamic systems approach
Service in world class is one of the important subjects that most of the
service industries have an especial attention to follow it. World wide
development of service concept is dealing with lean approach
techniques. The basis of lean approach is made of identification and
waste (muda) elimination. Because of both customer and personnel's
simultaneous attendance in process, as well as process waste and as a
nature of service, seven root wastes are defined by using system.
thinking, pressure ion model and envi 1 observation.
The aim of this paper is to design a dynamic leaning assessment model
in service industries by using system dynamic. It identifies weak and
strong points and helps to design and develop a suitable strategy to
change current situation to world class service in future. This research is
based on a case study in Maskan bank. The basics of codifying this
dynamic model in service industries are profitable service chain
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 49
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Diana Fisher
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School
7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008
USA
Brigit Fokkinga
B.Fokkinga@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Inge L. Bleijenbergh
ibleijenbergh@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Institute for Management Research
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Jac A. M. Vennix
j.vennix@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Andrew Ford
forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
Environmental Science
PO Box 644430
Pullman WA 99164-4430
SA
conceptual model, balanced assessment technique and system thinking.
In the other word, lean approach is effective in service industries
(leading to profit and income) When it can be compatible with service
profit chain. Research contribution is presenting a model based on
system thinking, service profit chain and balanced assessment structure
to leaning assessment service.
How Well Can Students Determine Simple
Growth and Decay Patterns From a Diagram?
Six of the 35 national (United States) mathematics standards for high
school (ages 15 to 18) instruction relate very well to the use of system
dynamics modeling methods, especially in algebra. A very important
concept, recognizing the underlying factors that produce different
patterns of behavior could be considered a unifying theme throughout
algebra, pre-calculus, and calculus. Most of the assignments given to
algebra students do not ask students to consider this underlying theme
(growth/decay pattern) except when studying a particular function. They
never combine functions they have studied in isolation to determine
potentially new growth or decay patterns. An assessment was given to 62
advanced algebra students to determine if they could predict the growth
or decay patter for six different scenarios, given a STELLA diagram and
a few numbers. This paper explains the assessment given and presents
the results produced by the 62 students.
Group model building effectiveness: a qualitative
method to assess changes in mental models
Group model building is supposed to support the development of shared
mental models. This paper i the application of aq i
method to assess changes in mental models as result of Group Model
Building. A quantitative measurement of effectiveness of Group Model
Building has been applied by Rouwette (2003). Recently some
researchers have been experimenting with a qualitative approach towards
measuring effectiveness, which is useful for measuring individual cases
and small groups (Dwyer and Stave, 2008, McCardle-Keurentjes, 2008).
This paper focuses on the foundation of such a qualitative method from a
methodological viewpoint and applies it to a particular case. In this way
we aim to introduce a potential standard for evaluating changes in mental
models in single cases and to open up the possibility to systematically
compare single cases.
Simulating a Thermal Water Quality Trading
Market for Classroom Education
Thermal water quality trading is an emerging tool for managing water
temperature. Trading programs give point source thermal polluters the
option to comply with effluent restrictions by paying nearby landowners
50 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Asmeret Bier
asmeret@ wsu.edu
Washington State University
460 NE Maiden Lane #5
Pullman WA 99163
Alireza Forouzan
ali_forozan@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Tran
Pouyan Foroughi
pouyanforoughi@ gmail.com
Sharif University Of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Iran
Hamid Firooz
hmdfirooz@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Tran
Carlos J aime Franco
cjfranco@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Carrera 80 #65 223 Bloque M8
Medellin
Colombia
Maria Camila Ochoa
mcochoa@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Cra 80 #65 -223 B1 M8A
Medellin
Colombia
Ana Maria Florez
amflorez@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Cra 80 #65 -223 BI M8A
Medellin
Colombia
to plant shade trees. The shade trees cool the water, offsetting the
thermal pollution emitted by the point source. One of the main obstacles
to the propagation of these markets is the problem of convincing
landowners to participate. Simulation can help reduce stakeholder
barriers and explore the potential benefits of trading. Simulation can help
d markets structures and ease the i of
market complexity. Simulation can also allow participants to explore
potential market outcomes under different scenarios and policy designs.
The Riparian Shading Simulator exercise was created to allow students
to play the roles of land owners and point source polluters.The classroom.
exercises create a common experience which sets the stage for concrete
discussions about how the market could work within the larger system.
The classroom exercises have also set the stage for system dynamics
modeling of alternative market designs.
Effects of Payment Delay on the Performance of
Private Insurance Companies: a System
dynamics A pproach
Appropriate management, policy design and suitable infrastructure are
vital for making insurances companies to be successful in the industry.
One of the critical issues in insurance management is the number of
clients. The main determinants of this variable are the delay in paying
ion, tariff and ad\ Thus majority of managers hope
to reduce payment delay, tariff and increase advertisement. But in Iran,
regarding to the governmental rules tariff is forced to companies
dingly. Also the privatization of i industry is one of the
government programs, which makes this obligation intolerable. In this
paper we attempt to model the present condition of Iran's insurance
industry and simulate the impact of payment delay on clients' behavior
by the help of System Dynamic. The model is then used to simulate the
ways, which pioneer countries applied in insurance industry, to control
the positive and negative effects of the mentioned phenomenon.
System Dynamics A pproach to Biofuels in
Colombia
The biofuels production in Colombia is growing in recent years but low
investment in refining capacity, crops and difficulties to transport the
biofuel to the distribution centers are obstacles to fulfill the demand. In
order to analyze these problems a System Dynamics model was
constructed for learning about the system behavior and for understanding
the response mechanisms to different policies from the production side.
An analysis of the current government policies as far as incentives to
refining facilities was developed in this paper. According to the model
results, alternative or complementarily policies could be appropriated to
accelerate the growth in the supply side of biofuels in Colombia.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 51
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Sebastian Franco
se-franc@ uniandes.edu.co
Universidad de los Andes
Bogota
Colombia
Fabio Andrés Diaz Pabon
fa-diaz@ uniandes.edu.co
Universidad de los Andes
Calle 68 #70C-73
Cundinamarca
Colombia
Andres Mejia
jmejia@ uniandes.edu.co
Universidad de los Andes
Cr1 No 18A-10
Bogota
Colombia
Gonzalo Mejia
gmejia@ uniandes.edu.co
Universidad de los Andes
Cr1 No 18A-10 Bogota
Colombia
Shiro Fukushima
shiro_fukushima@ omron.co,jp
Doshisha University
16-7 Shiro Okukaiinji Nagaokakyo City
Kyoto 617-0853
Japan
Kaoru Yamaguchi
kaoru3@ muratopia.org
Doshisha University
521 Minamidani Aihara
Goshiki-cho Sumoto Hyogo 656-1325
Japan
A System Dynamics approach to understand an
agricultural supply chain in C olombia.
Simulation modeling has become a tool to understand and improve
decision making in complex systems. In this particular case we analyze
the mango supply chain in a Colombian region through System
Dynamics. The system is characterized by high intermediation and lack
of alternatives for the growers. Nowadays, the Colombian government is
implementing a number of policies to both increase the living standards
of producers in the country side and bring to cheaper food to the poorest
areas of the populated areas. The main idea of this paper was to simulate
such policies and study their impact. Through System Dynamics we
found a number of problems related to the supply capacity of the system
(due to the seasonality of the crops), that mainly affects the revenue of
the growers of that region.
Is Japanese Manufacturing Style (so-called
Monozukuri) really robust? - A Causal Loop
Diagram and Modeling A pproach -
Monozukuri (Japanese Manufacturing Style) is said to be one of the
specialties of Japan as Ezra F. Vogel pointed out in his "Japan As
Number One". With the application of causal loop diagram analysis in
systems thinking, this paper tries to reconsider the structure which gives
strength and weakness of Monozukuri. The Monozukuri model is
developed by unifying various elements which has been conventionally
argued in various academic areas. There are three layers of positive
causal loops (strength): professional spirits on Monozukuri at an
individual level, trust-based style of management as an in-house
management-policy at an individual corporate level and trust-based
transactions on R&D and parts-supplier-network (Keiretsu) at an inter-
corporate level However, these strength loops are shown to be easily
tumed out to be weak ones. This paper identifies five exogenous
variables that turn the strength to the weakness. Trust-based management
based on Monozukuni is shown to be superior to the Western-style
contract-based management, because the latter brings just a temporary
increase in profits, but works as a negatively in the long run. The
companies which adopted trust-based style of management have
robustness in profit to the technological standardization. Japanese
company should continuously improve the structure of strength.
52 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Pascal J. Gambardella
pgambard@ csc.com
CSC
12708 Chilton Circle
Silver Spring MD 20904
USA
Gabriela G. Gastelum Reynoso
ggastel@ hotmail.com
Universidad de las Americas Puebla
Casa 5D Zona D
Santa Catarina Martir
Cholula Puebla 72820 Mexico
Enrique Palou Garcia
enrique.palou@ udlap.mx
Universidad de las Americas
Engineering School
Santa Catarina Martir
Cholula Puebla 72820 Mexico
Aurelio Lopez Malo
aurelio.lopezm@ udlap.mx
Universidad de las Americas
Engineering School
Santa Catarina Martir
Cholula Puebla 72820 Mexico
George A. Geistauts
afgag@ uaa.alaska.edu
University of Alaska Anchorage
College of Business and Public Policy
3211 Providence Dr
Anchorage AK 99508-4614
USA
Elisha Remington Baker
aferb1@ uaa.alaska.edu
University of Alaska Anchorage
3211 Providence Dr
Anchorage AK 99508
USA
Application of Strategy Dynamics: Starbucks
Corporation
Strategy Dynamics (Warren, 2008) provides a quantitative, resource-
based approach to understanding a firms performance over time. This
paper describes a strategy analysis of Starbucks Corporation using
Strategy Dynamics. It demonstrates the usefulness of this approach in
addressing business performance issues for a real-world company. The
strategic architecture, a key artifact of the approach, is a model that
captures the interactions of a firms tangible resources, management
decisions, and external factors. Starbucks strategic architecture for its
retail store business was developed using employee, store, and financial
data from Starbucks annual reports and other public information. The
strategic architecture and related models were used to explore several
issues that can influence Starbucks strategy: customers with less
discretionary income, expanding too fast, impact of staff layoffs on the
quality of service, getting and maintaining loyal customers, and rivalry
with competitors.
System Dynamics: A Complementary Tool for
Predictive Microbiology
One of the most important concems for food industry is safety.
Predictive Microbiology is the application of mathematical models to
describe microbial behavior in order to prevent food spoilage as well as
food-bome illness. Because of complexity of microbial behavior and
food systems, Predictive Microbiology presents some limitations.
System Dynamics could be a useful alternative and complementary tool
to model and predict microbiological behavior in foods while providing
a graphical interface and structures linked with a series of equations, to
clarify and improve ive Predictive Microbiology descriptions.
Causal Loop Modeling of Ethics Force
Structures: An Exploration
This paper explores the use of causal loop modeling to depict the
structure of forces that influence ethical behavior. Our goal is to
demonstrate that this kind of modeling can capture and show the
complexity inherent in ethics situations. The desire to increase ethical
performance is part of a system which includes the desire to increase
other aspects of performance, such as competitiveness, profitability, job
securoty, wealth, etc. Three examples are used to demonstrate the
approach. The first model depicts the generic framework of forces that
shape personal ethics behavior. The second model depicts some of the
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 53
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Ted Eschenbach
tedel@ak net
TGE Consulting
4376 Rendezvous Circle
Anchorage AK 99504
USA
Nicholas C. G eorgantzas
georgantzas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University Business Schools
113 W 60th Street Suite LL 617-D
New Y ork NY 10023-7484
USA
Evangelos Katsamakas
katsamakas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University
113 West 60th Street
School of Business 6th floor
New Y ork NY 10023
USA
Dominik Sotowiej
dsolowiej@ gmail.com
Stanislaw Staszic College of
Public Administration
Navid Ghaffarzadegan
navidg@ gmail.com
University at Albany
122 Manning Blvd
Albany NY 12203 USA
Laura J. Black
Ijblack@ alum.mitedu
Montana State University
PO Box 3662
Bozeman MT 59772-3662 USA
Don Greer
drgreer@ greerblackcompany.com
Greer Black Company
PO Box 3607
Bozeman MT 59772-3607 USA
David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
101 Milne Hall
135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA
forces that led to the current sub-prime mortgage crisis. The third model
focuses on factors and causal loops that can combine to shape the ethical
behavior of a business executive. Insights into ethics influences can be
gained from the modeling process itself, and from examining the
resulting model structures. These insights can provide guidance for
policy makers and managers focused on raising ethics behavior.
Although our models focus on business ethics in developed free-market
economies, the approach is readily applicable to other contexts, such as
analysis of the forces impacting on ethics in the professions or in
government.
Giddens Globalization: Exploring Dynamic
Implications
The dynamic complexity of the social phenomena that people bundle
together and call globalization accentuate a divisive public discourse
with strong arguments for and against the globalization process and its
effects. To help unearth the dynamic processes that support or inhibit
globalization, this article shows the recursive relations and mutual causal
links among technology, institutional structures, beliefs and social
behavior, which sociologist Anthony Giddens has posited on
globalization. Giddens' sociological analysis of the globalization process
incorporates not only favorable conditions, such as the development of
telecommunications technology and world economy integration, but also
political transformations, transnational corporation growth, and cultural
effects. These concems outline the components of a system dynamics
modeling example, the experimental and model analysis results of which
allow reflecting on Giddens' sociological globalization positions.
Path Dependency and the Role of Delays in
Creating Shared Understanding in Dyadic
Communication
Informed by a theory of symbolic interactionism, this research explores
the di ics of dyadic ications within which und ding is
socially constructed. Based upon an earlier analysis of a case-study
investigation in a large multi-disciplinary governmental project with
multiple contractors and subcontractors, we modify, simulate, and
analyze a dynamic model of dyadic communications. Our simulation
results support the previous findings and, in addition, underscore the role
of path dependency in creating shared understanding; that is, “first”
interpretations affected by random and imprecise messages can influence
subsequent shared understanding and meaning construction significantly.
Finally, our sensitivity analysis sheds light on the effects of decision and
action delay and observation and orientation delay. Delays, which in part
represent how responsive a partner is, can have counter-intuitive effects
on players’ convergence or divergence in a dyadic ication. Our
study shows that reducing observation and orientation delay can be
considered as a leverage point for communication convergence, while
increasing decision and action delay may facilitate convergence.
54 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Aref Gharakhani
aref.gharakhani@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology
Graduate School of Business and Econ
Sharif University of Technology
Teymouri Ave 11365 Tehran Iran
Ali Naghi Mashayekhi
mashayekhi@ alum.mit.edu
Sharif University of Technology
Grad School of Management and Econ.
PO Box 11365-8639 Azadi Avenue
11365 Tehran Iran
Mirmojtaba G haribi
mojtaba.gharibi@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Ave
Tehran Iran
Soheil G hili
soheil_ir1986@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Iran
Arash Pourhabib
arash.pourhabib@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
1100 Hensel Drive Apartment Y 34.
College Station TX 77840-1695
USA
Mohammad Akbarpour
mohamwad@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Iran
Towards a better understanding of pension
systems
Pension systems are vital components of every economic system. During
the last two decades, population aging and financial insufficiencies in
many countries forced governments, corporations and private pension
schemes to conduct reform to sustain their pension systems. This paper
investigates different Pay-as-you-go and funded pension schemes in
order to provide a better understanding of the dynamics and the structure
behind a pension system. Fully funded and unfunded schemes are
modeled in a generic form. Issues of stability, population dependency
and redistribution are discussed according to model structure and
simulation results. System dynamics provides and efficient tool to
understand the nature of each scheme.
Dynamics of Workforce in Iranian National
Petrochemical Company
Iranian National Petrochemical Company (NPC) has recently started a
fast development. Because of the imbalance in development of NPC,
despite of its reputation and history, is not able to recruit qualified
workforce. Managers concem the future of the industry as this flow of
low qualified human resources accedes to the top of the organizational
pyramid. In this paper, a system dynamics model has been used to
consider the impact of structural devel on human of
NPC. The results of simulation show that if managers of NPC desire the
industry to grow faster than a particular rate, it will finally collapse. It is
a quite counter intuitive result. A number of insights have been obtained
through the simulations and some practical policies have been suggested
and simulated.
A Stock Flow Method for Modeling
Heterogeneity in Household Demand and its
Effects on Real Estate Cycles
AB models are capable of capturing heterogeneity in the attributes of
agents in real complex systems by considering one variable for each
agent. DE models, however, have not this capability. In this paper we
introduce a Stock-Flow technique for modeling | ity in the
attributes of agents in DE models by adding only one stock variable to
the Real Estate Economy (REE) model. Afterwards, we investigate two
insights of our heterogeneous formulation. Firstly, we show that the
“transaction time”, in contrast with homogeneous models, does not play
a significant role in system’s behavior. Our second claim is a surprising
result which contradicts the current literature of the REE. There is a
consensus between scholars that the more supply lag, the greater
amplitude of price oscillations in REE. On the contrary, we claim that
not only an increase in the construction supply lag does not necessarily
lead to a more intensive price oscillation, but also it might lead to a
damping oscillation of price in the REE model.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 55
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Cleotilde G onzalez
conzalez@ andrew.cmu.edu
Carnegie Mellon University
Department of Social and Decision Sciences
5000 Forbes Ave Porter Hall 208
Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA
Angela Brunstein
angelab@ cmu.edu
Carnegie Mellon University
Department of Social and Decision Sciences
4609 Winthrop St 1st Fl Suite
Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA
Steven L. Kanter
kanter@ pittedu
Univ of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
M-240 Scaife Hall
Pittsburgh PA USA.
Andrew Goodwin
Andrew.Goodwin@ dsto.defence.gov.au
Defence Scientific and Technical Org
Port Melboume
Melboume Victoria
Australia
Rod MacDonald
Rodney.MacD onald@ dsto.defence.gov.au
Defence Scientific and Technical Org
Port Melboume
Melboume Victoria
Australia
Tim Haslett
thaslett@ bigpond.netau
Monash University
1/164 Highett Street
Richmond 3121 Victoria
Australia
Alan K. Graham
alan.k.graham@ alum.mit.edu
PA Consulting Group
68 Allen Street
Lexington MA 02421
USA
On the Role of Medical Experience for
Overcoming the Stocks and Flows Failure
Accumulation is a fundamental concept in dynamic systems that has
been shown to be very unintuitive and hard to understand even for highly
educated adults and very simple systems. The only intervention that is
reported to improve performance for judging stocks and flows for
accumulation systems is practice combined with corrective feedback.
This study investigated whether experience in a task domain - namely
medical education - can advance students’ performance for judging
accumulation within their task domain. We compared judgments of 180
medical students and 180 students from other fields for stock-flow
problems from the medical field and from generic problems. As
expected, medical students performed better than non-medical students
for both medical and generic problems but still performed very poor
indicating how hard it is to understand dynamic systems. As their non-
medical fellows, medical students tend to assume that the level of a stock
would follow the development of its flows.
The Dynamics of Fleet Usage
This paper presents a model that was developed in the Defence Science
and Technology Organization (DSTO) in Australia. It is a general model
designed to provide insight into the long-term fleet management
dynamics of aircraft. The use of system dynamics modelling is an
innovative approach to this problem and at the centre of the model is the
relationship between aircraft serviceability and usage rates. The paper
and the model will assist the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) to
address a number of specific fleet management issues: * A geing
platforms and the dynamics of degrading serviceability of existing
platforms, * The effects of modification and upgrades programs, *
Understanding the effects of changing demand (flying rates) and non-
steady state operation. The model presented in this paper contains
hypothetical data as real figures on Availability and Serviceability of
aircraft in Australia is classified. However, the model demonstrates the
fundamental dynamics that are in play during the life of any given
aircraft.
Methodological C hanges Needed to Meet the
World's Grand Challenges
A companion paper to this one identified four "Grand Challenges" for
system dynamics. This paper describes the methodological changes
seemingly needed to meet those challenges, describing some of the
current precedents and rationale for each. The more technical changes
are far more explicit model purpose, use of time series, representation of
actors' mental models, and working with multiple models. The changes
in professional matters are far more soft science expertise, publication in
56 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Oliver Grasl
oliver.grasl@ transentis.com
transentis management consulting GmbH
Friedrich Otto Strasse 2
D-65183 Wiesbaden
Germany
Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de
University of St. Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
9000 St Gallen Switzerland
Markus Schwaninger
markus.schwaninger@ unisg.ch
University of St Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
CH-9000 St Gallen Switzerland
Andreas Grofler
agroe@ gmx.de
Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Postbus 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
the language of the public and government, incenting synergistic
research, and evolving an open-source online curriculum. These changes
do not much alter the core of system dynamics but expand the repertoire
of expert modeling activities substantially.
Key performance indicators in professional
service firms - a dynamic perspective
Four major factors affect the performance of project based professional
service firms: The ratio of senior to junior staff referred to as the firm's
leverage, the average fee charged per unit of time, the percentage of
billable time referred to as utilisation, and the profit margin. This paper
takes a holistic approach to analysing the performance of these KPI's at a
particular professional service firm based on the time senior staff
allocates to the following tasks: Project acquisition and delivery, contact
and customer maintenance, service innovation and development and
hiring junior staff.
A Validation Methodology for System Dynamics
Models
Quality is a critically important issue in almost every discipline. The
literature in the field of System Dynamics has bred a number of
contributions concerning tests for the validation of simulation models
and its epistemological foundations. To date, however, little has been
said about a validation methodology for System ee models, even
for simulations in gen-eral. By valid: we
the systematic elicitation, description, and reflection of issues related to
the subject of validation. The papers contribution is to initiate the
development of a validation methodology. We explicitly address three
topics: Complexity engineering through validation tests, integrated
validation process, and finally the decision to cease validation efforts.
The first defines validation tests ding to their ility to ac-count
for a certain level of model complexity; the second designs a validation
process which addresses the domains of validation (structure, behavior,
context validation) and the levels of resolution (micro, meso, macro)
integratively and iteratively. And third, the cession decision creates a
heuristic method for the saturation of a System Dynamics model and
conceptually defines when to cease with validation efforts. The paper
concludes by providing further directions of research about a validation
methodology.
Intuitive vs. Deliberate Decision Making a
Dynamic Setting: An Experimental A pproach
The purpose of the poster is to discuss the effects of intuitive versus
deliberate decision making in a dynamic task. An experimental setting is
used to study this question; three experimental groups are distinguished:
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 57
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Etiénne A.J. A. Rouwette
e.rouwette@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Jac A. M. Vennix
j.vennix@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Andreas Grofler
agroe@ gmx.de
Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Postbus 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Alexander Zock
alexander.zock@ ecad-aviation.de
European Ctr for Aviation Development
Lise-Meitner- Strasse 10
62493 Darmstadt
Germany
Burak Gineralp
guneralp.burak@ gmail.com
Yale University
205 Prospect Street
New Haven CT 06511 USA
Michael Reilly
Stanford University
Department of Earth System Science
397 Panama Mall
Stanford CA 94305 USA
Karen Seto
Yale University
School of Forestry and Env Studies
205 Prospect Street
New Haven CT 06511 USA
immediate decision-making (only limited time for cognitive processing),
considered decision-making (time for deliberate cognitive processing),
and distracted decision-making (during which intuitive cognitive
processing can occur). The experimental stimulus is a simulator based on
the Kaibab Plateau model. More than 100 subjects were tested in a pre-
test, which led to a substantial revision of the original experimental
design. With the new experimental design, we assume to find significant
differences between the three groups conceming their decision quality.
The value of the study lies in the fact that it connects to a recent
discussion in psychology and transfers this to a core interest of the
system dynamics ci ity: decisi iking in situations with
dynamic complexity. Keywords: dynamic decision-making, intuitive
information processing, dynamic complexity, experiment.
Supporting Long-term Personnel Planning of a
Service Provider
The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate, how a dynamic aging chain
model can support strategic decisions in personnel planning. More
specifically, we use a system dynamics model to improve the recruitment
and training process in a large German service provider in the wider field
of logistics. The key findings are that the aging chain of service
operators within the company is affected by a variety of delays, for
instance for training, promotion, and ordering of personnel, and that the
structure of the planning process generates cyclic phases of personnel
surplus and shortage. The discussion is based on an in-depth case study,
which was conducted in the service company in 2008. Implications are
that planning processes have to be fine-tuned to account for delays in the
aging chain; the simulation model provides a tool for gaining insights
into the problem and for improving the actual human resource planning
process.
An Operational Framework for Seeing and
Simulating Feedbacks in Land Change Science
Feedbacks, nonlinearities, and time delays are at the heart of dynamic
interactions of socio-economic and biophysical systems. Land use land
cover change (LUCC) is a significant component of these dynamic
interactions. Land change science community recognized the need to go
beyond static depictions of feedback processes. This requires explicit
focus on the embedded feedbacks within and across scales as influential,
endogenous structural sources of the observed behavior pattems in
integrated social and biophysical systems. We present an operational
framework that takes its strength from its clear emphasis on nonlinear
feedback interactions as drivers of LUCC. The framework addresses
both micro- and macro-level processes by employing complementary use
of system modeling and spatially-explicit discrete-choice modeling. We
demonstrate the potential of the approach on a rapidly urbanizing region,
Pearl River Delta (PRD) in South China. To this end, we employ our
systemic framework and identify the most influential feedbacks and
linkages impacting the urban land conversion over the course of urban
and economic growth as experienced in PRD. We also discuss the
58 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Mona Hajialiasghar
mona_haa@ yahoo.com
Iranian Investment Co
No 61 Kosha Alley Shah Nazari St
Madar Sq
Tehran Iran
Reinhard Haller
reinhard.haller@ ivy.tuwien.ac.at
Vienna University of Technology
Gusshausstrasse 30
1040 Wien
Austria
Anna Mayerthaler
anna.mayerthaler@ tuwien.ac.at
Vienna University of Technology
Ottakringerstrasse 19/19
1160 Vienna
Austria
Guenter Emberger
guenter.emberger@ tuwien.ac.at
Vienna University of Technology
Institute of Transport Planning
Gusshausstrasse 30/2
A- 1040 Vienna
Austria
Jason K. Hansen
jasonh@ unm.edu
University of New Mexico
MSC05 3060
1 University of New Mexico
Albuquerque NM 87131
USA
potential of systems and use of ry methods in
advancing land change science both in theory and in practice. Our
remarks, invariably, have implications for sustainability science as well.
A model for overreaction and underreaction of
stockholders in Tehran Stock Exchange using
system dynamics method
Overreaction and underreaction of stock holders in response to
information and news are the events which challenge efficiency of
capital market. Using EPS modifications of companies represent on TSE
during 2006 to 2008 years, this research surveys over reaction and under
reaction of stock holders in response to new information. Finally,
utilizing system dynamics, we suggest a model to discuss these events.
Inputs of the model are as follows: earning per share - price ratio, first
earning per share of stock, time of memory, Time to change perception
and Average historical price . The model is for the facts in the companies
which have at least 20% free float and over 10% benefit modifications.
The System Dynamics of the " Invisible Hand" :
Simulating a Neoclassical Economy
It is maybe not exaggerated to state that the relation between system
dynamics and economics (and related models) fluctuated between
ignorance and open hostil-ity in the past. One plausible explanation for
this observation could be a lack of mutual understanding, which this
article aims to address. The article sets out with dynamic hypothesis
about economic equilibrium, a central concept in neoclassical
economics. It is argued that the emergence of an economic equilibrium,
ie. a balance between supply and demand, depends on the relative speed
of change within the economic system itself and its economic
environment. A model exhibiting such behaviour would arguably
conform to basic principles of sys-tem dynamics and might pave the way
for a fruitful adoption of elements of micro-economic theory in system
dynamics models. The article consists of a brief and (hopefully)
accessible exposition of neoclassical theories of consumption,
production and general equilibrium; a presentation of a numerical
general equilibrium model and the equivalent system dynamics model,
highlighting the relation between the models; an analysis of simulation
and sensi-tivity results; and conclusions with respect to the dynamic
hypothesis stated at the outset, the potential usefulness of the SD model
for applied analysis and some more theoretical conjectures.
Estimating Impacts of Water Scarcity Pricing
Water resources in Western U.S. are increasingly scarce due to
population growth and climate change that reduces water supplies. The
collision of these two realities implies that if water remains under-
priced, a likely externality is over i resource
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 59
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Tim Haslett
thaslett@ bigpond.netau
Monash University
1/164 Highett Street
Richmond 3121 Victoria Australia
Chris Ballenden
chrisjballenden@ optusnet.com.au
Ponte Consulting Group
14 Collins St Level 2
Melboume Victoria 3000 Australia
Saroj Godbole
saroj.godbole@ ponteglobal.com
Ponte Consulting Group
2/241 Burke Road
Glen Iris Victoria 3146 Australia
Kerry Walker
strudwalk@ bigpond.com
Neighbourhood Justice Centre
Collingwood Melboume A ustralia
Junaid Hassan
holdontoj@ yahoo.com
University of Bergen
Langentalstr 54
67475 Weidenthal
Germany
David Wheat
dwheat@ wheatresources.com
University of Bergen
Nedre Fjellsmug 6
5018 Bergen
Norway
exhaustion, and shortages. This paper develops a hybrid, hydro-
economic model of social welfare maximization constrained by
groundwater availability in a control theory framework. The model
provides optimal water use and the efficient price given consumer
preferences and resource constraints. The model suggest that water
prices should be at least 23 to 36 percent above current levels. We
consider one way to overcome the historical, institutional barriers to
scarcity pricing by distributing back to consumers the scarcity value
collected. Estimates of U.S. water infrastructure investment needs reach
as much as $2.2 trillion dollars over the next 30 years. Investing the
scarcity value in water infrastructure is one way to distribute excess
revenue to consumers while allocating water efficiently, essentially
solving two problems with a single policy prescription. We simulate the
model's effectiveness and identify impacts using data from Albuquerque,
New Mexico.
Using System Dynamics to Develop
Organizational L earning Process: the
Collingwood Neighbourhood J ustice C entre
The development of the Neighbourhood Justice Centre (NJC) in the
Melbourne suburb of Collingwood is a first for Australia and reflects a
universal growing interest in addressing the underlying causes of
criminal behaviour and disadvantage as well as improving access to
justice. The paper documents the findings that arose from an intervention
in the NJC that involved analysis of the NJC processes using process
maps, causal loop diagrams and systems modelling. From this analysis,
plans for organizational change were developed through a series of
workshops. The paper also documents the change in sense making
processes to include ideas of process flow, feedback systems and
causation. The processes that were modelled in the NJC have much in
common with other case management systems, particularly in hospitals
and it appeared likely that the NJC would soon be addressing the
problems Wolstenholme’ s (2007) identified where “the normal mode of
operation is beyond their safe design capacity.”.
Capturing the Dynamics of a Psychiatric Illness
of the c logical and psy: al
panic disorder (PD). It makes explicit the dynamic processes implicit in
the narrative presentations in the literature. It serves as a facilitator for
the discussion about PD for it provides an easy to- understand and
illustrative language for « to d, and hers of
different fields to critically examine, the biological, psychological, social
and cognitive aspects of PD.
The present study undertakes a partial system dynamics (SD) translation
of
60 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Wenyu Heng
hengwenyu@ gmail.com
High School A ffiliated to
Nanjing Normal University
Chaha‘er Road.
Gulou District Nanjing China
Majie Wang
wmj1991510@ hotmail.com
High School A ffiliated to
Nanjing Nonmal University
No37 Chaha'er Road
Gulou District Nanjing China
Xingjie Dai
dxjlytt@ 163.com
High School A ffliated to
Nanjing Nona University
No37 Chaha'er Road
Gulou District Nanjing China
Yufeng Ho
hyfarch@ ms32.hinet.net
Chaoyang University of Technology
PO Box 30-117
Taichung 407
Taiwan
Hsiao-Lin Wang
whl1435@ hotmail.com
Chaoyang University of Technology
Department of Landscape Architecture
PO Box 30-1177
Taichung 40760
Taiwan
Hsien-Chi Wang
hyfarchi@ yahoo.com.tw
Chaoyang University of Technology
PO Box 30-117
Taichung
Taiwan
Cheng-Chih Liu
chisester@ gmail.com
Chaoyang University of Technology
PO Box 30-117
Taichung
Taiwan
Exercise in application of System Thinking in the
water purification system
This is about the water purification system which named eco-machine
system. Based on the Model built by STELLA software, the system is
used to simulate the wastewater treatment process of Constructed
Wetland. This system can increase the amount of dissolved oxygen and
absorb nitrogen and phosphorus. Through analyzing the elements
influencing dissolved oxygen, we designed the experiment which is
divided into 4 parts of circulation: Aquarium which contains omamental
fish; physical treatment which contains oxygen increasing pump;
emerged plant absorbing nitrogen and phosphorus; submerged plant
increasing oxygen. The power of pump indicates the speed of circulation
of water. The amount of oxygen successfully increases with the help of
our water purification system in the lab. We assume that the dissolved
oxygen is the dominant indicator of the effluvium, so we consider the
increase of the dissolved oxygen as the decrease of the effluvium.
Meanwhile, all the cost we need is the electrical energy for operating
water pump, some aquatic creatures and water plants. In another words,
our eco-machine system is an efficient way to improve the water quality.
System Dynamics Model for the Sustainable
Management of Theme Park
The goal of this study is to examine the problems in making investment
decisions for tourism products from a perspective of sustainable
management and development. With System Dynamics as the basis and
the STELLA computer software as the tool, a systemic approach is
adopted and system factors identified using the Fuzzy Delphi method to
construct a sustainable system dynamics model for the Jianfushan
Fancyworld in Taiwan. By modeling, simulating and analyzing the
dynamic scenarios in the tourist product market, how corporate
economic development impacts on the environment can be understood.
Beneficial devel and ies may then be
proposed to the operator of the themed park to help them arrive at the
right development decisions. Keywords: Theme park, sustainable
management, system dynamics.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 61
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting
4016 Hermitage Dr
Voorhees NJ 08043 USA
Kristina Wile
kwile@ stcollab.com
Systems Thinking Collaborative
91 Whitman Street
Stow MA 01775 USA
Justin Trogdon
jtrogdon@ rti.org
RTI International
Diane Orenstein
ssw8@ cdc.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
Heart Disease & Stroke Prevention
4770 Buford Highway NE
Atlanta GA 30341 USA
Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ cde.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
360 Brooks Avenue NE
Atlanta GA 30307 USA
Philip Huang
philip.huang@ ci.austin.tx.us
Austin/Travis County
Health and Human Services Department
Austin TX USA
Karina Loyo
karina loyo@ ci.austin.tx.us
Austin/Travis County
Health and Human Services Department
Austin TX USA
Jody House
jhouse@ lupinellc.net
Lupine, LLC
546 SE Walnut St
Hillsboro OR 97123
USA
Laura J. Black
Ijblack@ alum.mitedu
Montana State University
PO Box 3662
Bozeman MT 59772-3662
USA
How best to reduce cardiovascular risk?
Dynamic modeling to integrate public health and
medical science
A system dynamics model has been under development since 2007,
supported by the federal CDC and NIH, for evaluating alternative
interventions to reduce cardiovascular risk in a population. The Phase 1
model, presented at last year’s conference, focused on first-time
cardiovascular events, risk factors, and costs, and was applied nationally
and to Austin/Travis County, Texas. The expanded Phase 2 model
includes the post-cardiovascular event population, post-event care, and
recurrent events. The expanded model also depicts treatable borderline
tisk conditions (pre-hypertension, borderline cholesterol, and pre-
diabetes) and former smokers. We will apply the expanded model again
in Austin, and also for the heavily disadvantaged Delta region of
Mississippi. The local applications support community planning about
the likely impacts of interventions and their tradeoffs. We will also apply
the model to explore (a) targeting interventions by age category or by
gender; (b) lowering treatment targets for blood pressure, cholesterol, or
blood glucose; (c) other risk factors (e.g., excess salt consumption,
vitamin D deficiency, periodontal disease, and C-reactive protein); and
(d) the effects of race and ethnicity. The results will provide evidence-
based support for improved strategies combining public health and
clinical interventions to reduce cardiovascular risk and its direct and
indirect costs.
Patricia L. Mabry Lawton Cooper
mabryp@ od.nih.gov cooperls@ nhlbi.nih.gov
National Institutes of Health National Institutes of Health
Behavioral & Social Sciences Research Bethesda MD USA
31 Center Dr Rm B1C19
Bethesda MD 20892-2027 USA
The Hero and the Warrior in New Venture
Growth
Many entrepreneurial successes are attributed to the strong personalities
of the new venture leaders, who offer vision, inspire loyalty, and display
tenacity in solving problems to achieve their goals. Successful start-up
ventures may bias perceptions of the anecdotal benefits of personality-
driven leadership in firms too young to have established processes,
operationally and organizationally. Those ventures destroyed by the
personalities of early leaders, because they no longer exist, offer few
anecdotes with which to compare and counter legendary successes such
as Apple and its visionary leader Steve Jobs or Amazon and its creative
founder Jeff Bezos. This paper advances our thinking about the risks and
rewards of personality-driven leadership in start-ups by exploring the
dynamics that can arise from heroic leadership gone awry. Building ona
62 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
case study of a key manager in a medical-device start-up, we identify
causal relations and essential dynamics that may bring success to the
leader but at the expense of the new venture’ s viability. We discuss
insights from the causal loops as they relate to the literature on
leadership and outline next steps to advance the research.
Peter S. Hovmand Real Options A pproach for Innovation
phovmand@ wustl.edu " é
Washington University in St Louis Implementation Strategies
George Warren Brown School of Social Work
One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196 Many interventions that are effective in one setting may be ineffective or
Saint Louis MO 63130 USA even harmful in other settings. This poses a problem for organizations
and communities engaged in planning efforts seeking to improve
David N. Ford outcomes. This paper introduces the use of managerial real options
davidford@ tamu.edu i : fj . ‘
Texas A&M University combined with system dynamics models to design strategies for
Dept Civil Engineering Mailstop 3136 implementing community interventions when their effectiveness may be
College Station TX 77843-3136 uncertain. A new notation for i y i
USA using real options is introduced. The approach is illustrated with an
example of domestic violence community interventions. Results show
that there are potential benefits to using a real options approach.
Peter S. Hovmand Modeling the Dynamics of the Energy,
hovmand@ wustl.ed *
Woute Unison: SELouls Environment, & Poverty Nexus: A Study of
Georye Warren Brown School of Social Work ~Biogas Unit Diffusion in Andhra Pradesh, India
One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
Sat Louis M0.63130 In this paper, we use system dynamics modeling to look at the broad set
of socio-economic and ecological factors which together play a role in
John Peipert determining a households decision to adopt a biogas plant. Informed by
Jpeipert@ gwhmail.wustl.edu data we collected during the summer of 2008 with the Foundation for
George Warren Brown School of Social Work Ecological Security (FES) in Andhra Pradesh, India, and with
One Brookings Drive corroboration from the relevant technology diffusion and energy
Ses MO 63130 transition literature, we model the process of biogas adoption and
traditional technology replacement. We find that only by improving
Tim Severyn biogas interventions to address this complex interplay of energy,
tseveryn@ gwbmail.wustl.edu environment, and poverty-related factors, notably household usage of a
Washington University in St. Louis multiple-stove strategy and the incapacitation of the poorest households,
George Warren Brown School of Social Work can an intervention realize desired outcomes around both human and
Gautam N. Yadma ecological wellbeing. We conclude with a discussion of model
yadama@ wustl.edu applications for both FES and the broader rural development community.
Washington University in St. Louis
George Warren Brown School of Social Work
Susan Howick Supporting Strategic C onversations: The
siete at Significance of the Model Building Process
Department of Management Science
40 George Street This paper reports on the use of both qualitative modelling (i.e. Journey
Glasgow G1 1QE UK Making) and quantitative system dynamics simulation modelling for a
strategy making process in a UK police force. The main focus of the
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 63
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Colin Eden
colin@ gsb.strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Graduate School of Business
199 Cathedral Street
Glasgow G4 0QU UK
Joe Chiaojen Hsueh
joehsueh@ mitedu
MIT
70 Pacific St #357B
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
David S. Miller
dsm@ alum.mitedu
MIT
101 Stedman Street
Brookline MA 02446
USA
John Sterman
jsterman@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142
USA
Jinjing Huang
colorfulginger@ hotmail.com
NUI, Galway
155 Laurel Park
Newcastle Road
Galway Ireland
Enda Howley
enda.howley@ nuigalway.ie
NUI, Galway
University Road
Galway Ireland
Jim Duggan
jim.duggan@ nuigalway ie
National University of Ireland Galway
Department of Information Technology
University Road
Galway Ireland
work is on the tension between the supply of resources (i.e. police
officers) and the demands placed on those officers. The strategic
conversation that took place was facilitated by 2 modellers - one
focussing on managing the strategic enquiry, while the other considered
the implications of the conversation for the system dynamics model.
Three key strategic ci ions cd: the of quality
with respect to staff, measuring productivity, and the role of public
expectations. The work raises issues for both model building processes
and the strategic of any public i
Clean Technology Startup Management Flight
Simulator
How to run a successful clean technology startup company? What are the
strategies that enable a startup to escape the "valley of death" and emerge
as a winner in the market? To gain some insights in this, we developed a
Clean Technology Startup Management Flight Simulator, a system
dynamics based computer simulation game to study the dynamics of
clean tech startups. The model builds on the previous work by Miller
(2007) and Oliva, Sterman and Giese (2003). It includes the prospect
chain, product development, sales, marketing, human resource, finance
and accounting. The player makes decisions on headcount (growth rate
and allocation), compensation (salary, stock grants and options) and
financing (VC financing and IPO). We aim to use it as a teaching tool for
learning various trade-offs clean tech startups face in a cash constraint
environment.
The Ford Method: A Sensitivity Analysis
Approach
In dynamic models, a system's behavior is determined by the interaction
of its feedback loops. The challenge for system dynamics modellers is to
identify these loops, and also understand, over the runtime of a model,
which loops dominate system behavior. The Ford method is a procedure
that identifies changes in atomic behavior pattems in the presence, and
absence, of feedback loops, in order to identify loop dominance for a
specific time interval. For a candidate feedback loop, dominance is
calculated based on setting the loop control variable to a constant value.
Our approach proposes a variation on this method. Using sensitivity
analysis, we explore a wider search space around a range of possible
values for the control variable, and thereby the value of the loop gain.
The outcome of this analysis is a richer set of loop dominance analysis
for each atomic behavior pattern in the model. The sensitivity of various
feedback loops is measured as an indicator of dominance. This approach
has the potential to be selected for modellers and policy makers to
analyze the structure-drive-behavior dynamic systems. The approach is
illustrated through an analysis of the Y east Model.
64 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Sungjoo Hwang
nkkt4@ snu.ac.kr
Seoul National University
RM#39-425 san 56-1 Shilim-dong
Kwanak-Gu Seoul Korea
Moonseo Park
mspark@ snu.ac.kr
Seoul National University
Department of Architecture
San 56-1 Shinrim-dong
Seoul Korea
Hyun-Soo Lee
hyunslee@ snu.ac.kr
Seoul National University
San 56-1 Shinrim-dong
Seoul Korea
Vishnu Vardhan Jagannathan
vishnuvardhanj@ gmail.com
Anna University Chennai
Division of Transportation Engineering
Chennai 600 025
Tamil Nadu India
Ganesan Umadevi
gudevil @ yahoo.co.in
Anna University
College of Engineering Guindy
Dept of Civil Engineering
Chennai 600 025 India
Korean Real Estate Market Mechanisms and
Deregulation of Mortgage Loans: Qualitative
Analysis
The Korean real estate market is currently experiencing a slowdown due
to the global economic crisis which has resulted from subprime
mortgage lending practices. In response, the Korean government has
enforced various policies, based on intention to deregulate real estate
speculation, such as increasing the Loan to value ratio (LTV) in order to
stimulate housing supply, demand and accompanying housing
transactions. However, these policies have appeared to result in deep
confusion in the Korean housing market. Furthermore, analyses for
housing market forecasting— particularly those which examine the
impact of the international financial crisis on the Korean real estate
market— have been partial and fi y. Therefore, a i
and systematical approach is required to analyze the real estate financial
market and the causal nexus between market determining factors. Thus,
with an integrated perspective and applying a system dynamics
methodology, this paper proposes Korean Real Estate and Mortgage
Market dynamics models based on the fundamental principles of housing
markets, which are determined by supply and demand. As well, the
potential effects of the Korean government's deregulation policies are
considered by focusing on the main factor of these policies: the mortgage
loan.
Fringe Area Growth in Chennai - A systems
approach
Growth is the catalyst for all the issues related to landuse and
transportation planning. It is very much necessary to regulate this growth
to achieve a sustainable planning of the cities. The cities have become
almost saturated in the inner core and their growth is more in the
peripheral areas i.e. urban fringes or periurban areas. The population
growth rate of periurban areas of Chennai is 3 to 3.5 compared to the city
growth rate of 1.23. In this paper an attempt has been made to establish
the need for development planning of periurban areas by simulating the
growth of periurban area through system dynamic modelling under
various scenarios.An ideal growth scenario is simulated. The study area
selected is one of the most rapidly developing periurban areas in
Chennai. Also a system dynamic model is built for the whole of Chennai
metropolitan area to project its growth and estimate the present and
future supply demand ratio of transportation facilities.This will enable
planners to perceive the future conditions and plan accordingly for a
better, efficient and greener city of tomorrow.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 65
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Tobias J ager
tobias jaeger@ eifer.org
European Institute for Energy Research
Emmy-Noetherstrasse 11
D-76131 Karlsruhe
Germany
Susanne Schmidt
susanne.schmidt@ eifer.org
European Institute for Energy Research
Emmy-Noether-Strasse 11
D-76131 Karlsruhe
Germany
Ute Karl
ute.karl@ eifer.org
European Institute for Energy Research
Emmy-Noether-Strasse 11
76131 Karlsruhe
Germany
Sae-Hyun Ji
oldclock@ snu.ac.kr
Seoul National University
Bldg 39-425 Shillim-Dong San 56-1
Seoul Koreal
Moonseo Park
mspark@ snu.ac.kr
Seoul National University
Department of Architecture
San 56-1 Shinrim-dong
Seoul Korea
Hyun-Soo Lee
hyunslee@ snu.ac.kr
Seoul National University
San 56-1 Shinrim-dong
Seoul Korea
Nitin R. J oglekar
joglekar@ bu.edu
Boston University
School of Management
595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston MA 02215 USA
Eric S. Graber-Lopez
grabere@ alum.mit.edu
HeliaSolar
1085 Commonwealth Ave
Boston MA 02215
USA
A system dynamics model for the German
electricity market - model development and
application
Aim of this paper is the description of a system dynamics based model
for the German electricity market and its application. With the model
“Zertsim”, developed by EIFER, impact studies of economic and
environment related constraints on the German elec-tricity spot market
should be made. A first application of the model was in a workshop with
entrepreneurs of the region of Karlsruhe in Germany. One result of the
workshop was an order of impact factors for the development of
electricity prices and CO2 emis-sions. The most determining factors for
high electricity prices are: 1) environmental constraints, 2) fuel prices, 3)
electricity demand, and 4) extended operation time for nuclear power
stations in Germany. Regarding CO2 emissions the highest impacts
could be find in the case of: 1) environmental constraints, 2) extended
operation time for nuclear power, 3) electricity demand and finally 4)
fuel prices.
Policies for Improving Design-Build Delivery
System in Korea
Increasingly adopted by both public and private organizations, Design-
build (DB) has become a favored construction project delivery system,
outperforming other systems in terms of cost, schedule, and quality.
However, DB has been especially criticized by the public sector for
practicing subjective evaluation and for providing only limited
accessibility to small and medi ized ce . In Korea, similar
critiques have been raised, as these qualities have prevented public
owners from benefiting from the potential advantages of DB. In order to
address these challenging issues, the present research will systematically
be analyzed the characteristics of the DB delivery system in Korea.
Based on industry surveys and an extensive literature review, a
qualitative system dynamics model will be developed and used to
propose and test hypothetical DB policy alternatives that are expected to
enhance DB performance. Furthermore, after the appropriate
customization processes, these research findings can also be applied to
the industry settings of different countries.
A Countdown towards Solar Power at Grid
Parity: Evolution of Price-Performance
The price-performance of solar power generation seems to be on the
verge of reaching grid parity. With this paper we examine first the effect
that government sponsored renewable portfolio standard initiatives will
have on the true cost of solar electricity for consumers and second the
degree to which the problem of meeting the consumer demand may
become more significant once solar electricity reaches parity with
conventional sources of electricity generation. The true costs associated
with grid parity include the investment in generation capacity, backup
66 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Klaus J ohn
kd@ john-weltner.de
Chemnitz University of Technology
Thueringer Weg 7
09107 Chemnitz
Germany
Charles A. J ones
skuk_jones@ yahoo.com
Harvard Kennedy School
63 Eastland Road
Jamaica Plain MA 02130
USA
Martin Kaggwa
mkaggwa@ aide.co.za
Automotive Industry Development Centre
Private Bag X36
0200 Rosslyn
South Africa
Jasper L. Steyn
jsteyn@ postino.up.ac.za
University of Pretoria
Dept Engineering and Technology Mgt
Pretoria 0002
South Africa
Anastasios Pouris
anastassios.pouris@ up.ac.za
University of Pretoria
infrastructure, along with the production and the distribution costs. The
generation and production costs are on track to drop over time, on the
other hand the distribution and allied infrastructure costs can increase
owing to daily production variation, grid congestion and long distance
transmission loads as the demand for solar power grows. This context
offers a dynamic setting for examining a set of policies that will affect
the diffusion of solar power technologies.
A System Dynamics Approach to the Bhaduri-
Marglin Model
This paper starts from the observation that the global financial and
economic crisis cannot be explained by mainstream neoclassical models.
There is a need to promote the development of macroeconomic models
that put emphasis on the demand side. A promising starting point for
such a development is the Bhaduri-Marglin model. A drawback of this
model is the lack of dynamics. As the first part of a more comprehensive
research program this paper proposes a system dynamics approach to the
Bhaduri-Marglin model which yields additional insights into this model.
The Renewable Energy Industry in
Massachusetts as a Complex System
An abstract model of a local photovoltaic market was developed from a
model-based field study. The system described by informants displays
features of distributed and embedded agency: actors have the ability to
take meaningful action, but that action and its effects are limited by the
complexity of the system and by the actions of other actors. The
structures necessary for dynamic growth are present, as expected in an
industry that has had the growth of the PV market so far. Under several
reasonable conditions, growth can be halted before reaching its potential:
if reinforcing feedback processes saturate; if industry capacity grows too
slowly; or if goals are too low orif they erode. Coordinated action -
multiple small interventions - are more effective than isolated large
actions as a policy for market growth.
Sustaining industrial growth in A frica: A
reflection on South A frica's automotive industry
support model
The use of selective industrial policy to re-integrate South A frica's
previously protected automotive industry into the global business is one
of the few successful cases on the A frican continent in recent times.
South A frica's success provides a useful reference point for other African
countries in which selective industrial policy is a key part of national
development strategy. Despite the re-integration, the automotive industry
has experienced deteriorating trade deficit since 1995 contrary to what
had been envisaged. The paper uses a system dynamics model to explain
this apparent contradiction. It is found that the offer fiscal incentives to
the industry had a positive effect on industry investment and exports but
not long-term competitiveness. The paper argues that for a replica of
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 67
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Reza Kazemi
rezakazemi.reza@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Masoud Tavazoei
masood_tavazoei@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Mohammadreza A liasgari
mraliaskari@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Reza Kazemi
rezakazemi.reza@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Masoud Tavazoei
masood_tavazoei@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Nikrooz Nasr
me@ nikrooz.net
Sharif University of Technology
Tehran Iran
Ali Naghi Mashayekhi
mashayekhi@ alum.mit.edu
Sharif University of Technology
Grad School of Management and Econ.
PO Box 11365-8639 Azadi Avenue
11365 Tehran Iran
Reza Kazemi
rezakazemi.reza@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Masoud Tavazoei
masood_tavazoei@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
South A frica's selective industry support model to sustain industrial
growth and subsequent international trade, it has to be implemented in
conjunction with a targeted technology acquisition strategy.
The Effect of Chaotic and Instable Portfolio on
House Price in Tehran as a Case Study
Investigation into house price changes during time has been the focal
point of numerous researches and lots of great scholars such as
Wheaton[1,2] have put in a great deal of effort to explain and model its
behavior. In researches carried out so far, there were two main
approaches: first, most of the vacillation in house price was assigned to
delay in supply and demand market while in the second approach house
was considered as a durable good and the characteristics of those goods
were utilized to justify the house price behavior. In this paper we are
trying to dynamically model and investigate the effect of a chaotic
portfolio (meaning capital flow between three key markets: House, Stock
and Bank) on house price change trend, focusing on house price in city
of Tehran as a case study. Eventually some policies are suggested to
manage the aforesaid chaos.
An Investigation on The Process of Modification
of Subsidy Policy
In recent years, increase in energy price in intemational markets has
tumed paying energy subsidy into a serious challenge, because those
countries paying subsidies are in constant pressure (Gupta 2003)[6,7].
Rise in energy price and demand in those countries has resulted in
eamest problems in energy pricing (Davis 2001)[4]. Besides, subsidy
elimination and imparting the resulted money to the society, without
planning for solving its short-term and long-term consequent problems,
will lead to public dissatisfaction as well as industrial performance
downturn and also it will cause inflation[5]. In this paper while offering
a comprehensive model for this problem and dynamic analysis of the
policies implemented so far and also investigation of those policies in
short-term and long-term frames, another policy is suggested for solving
this problem which not only guarantees industrial development and
increase in public welfare level but also will gradually remove energy
subsidy from government budget and thus will help the government to
get rid of this intolerable burden.
Privatization: Iran Power Industry As A Case
Study
As it can be observed in developing countries trend, in these countries
there is a huge government possessing enormous money and also cash
flows in these countries are mainly within governmental organizations
rather than non-governmental (private) sector. Plainly, this trend will not
be favorable for those countries and will lead to economical downtum
after a while, because given the weakness of private sector; the
competition for market share will begin to wane, leading to good quality
68 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Mohammad Jalalian
majjal65@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Mohammad Rasooli
mdrasouli@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Ali Hasanpoor
desperali@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Andjelka Kelic
sly@ mitedu
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185 USA.
Aldo Zagonel
aazagon@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137
USA
Michael S. Kennedy
mike.kennedy@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
Department of Accounting and Finance
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA UK
decline. Consequently investors will lose their motivation for investment
and production drop and unemployment rise will be the inevitable
consequences. As a result, putting in an effort to foster the process of
privatization is one of the most important goals in these countries.
Privatization should take place in many fields including electrical power
supply. In this paper we will investigate the privatization trend in
electrical power supply industry in Iran as a case study and we will also
analyze the effect of influential parameters on this trend. At the
end,some policies are suggested to accelerate the process and their
results are probed.
Science, Technology, Engineering, and
Mathematics (STEM) Career Attractiveness
A system dynamics model was developed in response to the apparent
decline in STEM candidates in the United States and a pending shortage.
The model explores the attractiveness of STEM and STEM careers
focusing on employers and the workforce. Policies such as boosting
STEM literacy, lifting the H-1B visa cap, limiting the offshoring of jobs,
maintaining training and a combination of strategies are explored as
possible solutions. The system is complex, with many feedbacks and
long time delays, so solutions that focus on a single point of the system
are not effective and cannot solve the problem. A deeper understanding
of parts of the system that have not been explored to date is necessary to
find a workable solution.
A Review of System Dynamics Models of
Educational Policy Issues
A number of papers have been published describing various System
Dynamics (SD) models of various Education institutions and issues, on
topics including the role of SD in Corporate Governance, Planning,
Resourcing & Budgeting, Teaching Quality, Teaching Practice,
Microworlds and Enrolment Demand. This paper builds on previous
papers by this author that provided a partial catalogue and classification
of this work in order to highlight potential areas of research in this field
of study and to identify system archetypes at different hierarchical levels
and discover new ones. This paper therefore presents Review of System
Dynamics Models in Education. This paper builds on the earlier
taxonomy by widening the scope of the survey of completed SD
investigations in educatio The findings from these
investigations are briefly described. The Review classifies the completed
investigations into seven specific areas of concern and five hierarchical
levels. Key words: System Dynamics, Education.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 69
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Michael S. Kennedy
mike kennedy@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
Department of Accounting and Finance
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA UK
Deogratias Kibira
deogratias.kibira@ nist.gov
National Institute of Standards & Tech
100 Bureau Drive MS 8261
Gaithersburg MD 20899
USA
Sanjay Jain
jain@ gwu.edu
The George Washington University
2201 G Street NW Suite 415
Washington DC 20052
USA
Charles McLean
charles.mclean@ nist.gov
National Institute of Standards & Tech
100 Bureau Dr MS8260
Gaithersburg MD 20899
USA
Saul Kidde
saulkidde@ yahoo.com
Makerere University
Faculty of Computing and IT
PO Box 7062
Kampala Uganda
Ddembe W. Williams
Makerere University
Faculty of Computing & Information Tech
PO Box 7062
Kampala Uganda
A Review of System Dynamics Pedagogic
Techniques
A number of papers have been published describing various pedagogic
techniques for the dissemination of the System Dynamics (SD) approach
at various Education institutions and academic levels ranging from
schools (K-12 in the US) to higher education. This paper builds on
previous papers by this author that provided a partial catalogue and
classification of this work in order to highlight potential areas of research
in this field of study and to identify system archetypes at different
hierarchical levels and discover new ones. This paper therefore presents
Review of System Dynamics Pedagogic Techniques. This paper builds
on the earlier taxonomy by widening the scope of the survey of SD
Pedagogic Techniques. The findings from these investigations are briefly
described. The Review classifies the completed investigations into
specific areas of concem and hierarchical levels. Key words: System
Dynamics, Education.
A System Dynamics Framework for Sustainable
Manufacturing
This Paper P proposes a framework for application of system dynamics
manufacturing. manufacturing
involves interpetion of multiple complex systems including those in
manufacturing, environment, financial and social domains. A concerted
effort involving a number of researchers may be required to develop the
requisite capability to model sustainable manufacturing with a flexible
scope. At present, it is difficult for researchers to collaborate, share and
reuse models and due to lack of in several
aspects includi and model: hes. The proposed
framework is a first step to move towards composability of sustainable
manufacturing model components developed by different research
teams. The proposed framework organizes the major factors influencing
sustainable manufacturing into four interacting complex domains. The
framework is intended for use as a platform to develop model
components that may be interchanged to analyze sustainable
manufacturing for different industries and geographies.
Mapping Standard HIV Disease Surrogate
Markers to Alternatives ones: A System
Dynamics Approach
Use of system dynamics methodology in modeling HIV/AIDS disease
progression is not very new, however use of a triangulation of
methodologies in form of the Dynamic Synthesis Methodology (DSM)
to model the relationship between surrogate markers for monitoring
HIV/AIDS disease progression is entirely new. This paper seeks to
demonstrate the practicality of the use of a triangulation of
70 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
William R. Killingsworth
billk@ mit.edu
MIT
77 Massachusetts Ave Room 1-176
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
Frank Lawrence
U.S. Amy Aviation and Missile Command
Redstone Arsenal
Huntsville Alabama 35801
USA
Regina K. Chavez
rkb0003@ uah.edu
University of Alabama Huntsville
Ctr for Management & Economic Research
301 Sparkman Drive
Huntsville AL 35899
USA
Nelson T. Martin
University of Alabama Huntsville
Ctr for Management & Economic Research
301 Sparkman Drive
Huntsville AL 35899
USA
Gyu Rim Kim
gyurim1245@ hanmail.net
Hankuk Academy of Foreign Studies
A-1608 Acro-Tower 1591 Gwanyang-dong
Dongan-gu Anyang-si Gyeonggi-do
431-060 Korea
called DSM combining System Dynamics and Case study
methodologies to establish the relationships between HIV/AIDS
surrogate markers so as to arrive at an appropriate model for monitoring
the HIV/AIDS disease progression for a resource limited setting. The
author presents and understanding of DSM and then describes the
iterative model development process including model validation.
Analysis is made of the model to identify the dominant loops so as to
suggest important factors to consider in design of a possible tool. The
paper makes useful contribution in suggesting how DSM can be used in
a clinical setting to enhance technology use in decision making for
healthcare in a resource limited settings.
Using System Dynamics to Evaluate A Push-Pull
Inventory Optimization Strategy For Multi-Tier,
Multi-Channel Supply Chains
Multi-tier, multi-channel supply chains are now common in many
industries including aviation. Such supply chains provide high-value
aviation parts to the Government, and many of these supply chains have
been plagued recently by shortages. These shortages arise from demand
volatility as well as supply uncertainties. In many commercial supply
chains, a push-pull strategy is used to develop responsiveness to
uncertainties in demand and supply. An optimization model is developed
for an aviation supply chain to strategically place WIP inventory at
specific suppliers, thus creating a push-pull boundary in the
manufacturing supply chain. The optimum solutions are shown to
substantially improve supply chain response and supply availability with
reduced working capital. A system dynamics model is used to evaluate
the performance of the supply chain over time when the optimal safety
stocks were in place. The results indicate a significant improvement in
the recoverability of the supply chain when subjected to a sudden
increase in demand.
Analysis of Global Food Market and Food-
Energy Price Links: Based on System Dynamics
Approach
The world food and energy prices are becoming increasingly linked.
Food vs. fuel is the dilemma regarding the risk of diverting farmland or
crops for biofuels production in detriment of the food supply on a global
scale. One systemic cause for the price rise is held to be the diversion of
food crops (maize in particular) for making first-generation biofuels. An
estimated 100 million tonnes of grain per year are being redirected from
food to fuel. The objectives of this study are firstly to build a simulation
model, based on system dynamics approach, for not only analyzing the
global food market but also forecasting the global food demand,
production, and stock, and secondly to examine the food-energy links
mechanism by analyzing biofuel related technology level and progress,
expected biofuel demand and price, biofuel production capacity and
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 71
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Golda Word Komanapalli
komanaga@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
24 Beehive Court
Beehive Lane
London IG1 3RR UK
Birgit Kopainsky
birgit kopainsky@ flury-giuliani.ch
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
PO Box 7800
N-5020 Bergen
Norway
Stephen A lessi
steve-alessi@ uiowa.edu
University of lowa
370 Lindquist Center
Towa City IA 52242
USA
Matteo Pedercini
matteois@ hotmail.com
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Blvd Ste 650
Arlington VA 22201
USA
facilities, and petroleum market mechanism. a causal link from the oil
price to the biofuel demand is positive, meaning that an increase in the
oil price results in an increase in the biofuel demand. There are several
more positive links: a link from the biofuel demand to the biofuel price,
a link from the biofuel price to the oil demand, and a link from the oil
demand to the oil price.
Verifying Influence Diagrams using Dimensional
Analysis
Developing a valid model is of primary importance in System Dynamics
(SD) modelling process. To establish that a model produces the right
behaviour for the right reasons it is essential to ensure that the structure
of model represents the corresponding real world system. Amongst the
verification procedures employed, dimensional analysis is used to verify
the syntactical correctness of the equation. However, dimensional
analysis is among the least prioritised procedures employed in the model
building process. Therefore, a lack of dimensional consistency raises
serious doubts about the validity of model behaviour. The aim of this
paper is to summarise various problems and difficulties identified in the
process of sD modelling and to suggest an altemative approach. Firstly,
this paper d the problems faced by begi Secondly, the
paper d alternative approaches suggested by hers in SD.
Thirdly this papers presents a novel approach to generate a mathematical
model from influence diagrams. The two principle benefits this approach
can offer are, a software tool based on this approach which can make the
benefits of itati delling of SD method more ible to
a wider range of users and an improved SD modelling experience,
especially of those modellers who have limited mathematical experience.
Exploratory strategies for simulation-based
learning about national development
This study investigated an instructional strategy to improve leaming a
complex model in a sys-tem dynamics based learning environment. The
instructional strategy required subjects to ex-plore key variables by
manipulating dynamic graphs. Design of the strategy was posited upon
principles of reducing cognitive load, facilitating mental models,
enhancing transfer, and manag-ing risk. Eight students who received the
exploration strategy subsequently made better policy decisions than nine
subjects who did not receive the strategy. Furthermore, the former
subjects exhibited better understanding of the model and how to manage
it than did the latter subjects, based upon their verbal descriptions.
Pal I. Davidsen
pal.davidsen@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6 7th Floor
5020 Bergen Norway
72 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Samuli Kortelainen
Modeling Strategic Technology Management
samuli.kortelainen@ lut.fi i ‘
Lappeenranta University of Technology With a Hybrid Model
Skinnarilankatu 34
53850 Lappeenranta Abstract: In this study we will introduce a hybrid model to describe
Finland competition ina loping market envi . A hybrid
L auri Lattila model referred here is a model that has both system dynamic and agent-
University of Technol based elements. Modeling effort begins from a literature review to
Sy . *
strategic and of technology. From this
background we build a model combining the theories from multiple
theory tracks. The model is used to test the effects of more rapid strategy
process to firm’s profitability. To test the results we use statistical
methods to analyze the data gathered from sensitivity runs. Our model
founds support for the proposition that increasing agility increases also
the competitive advantage of the firm. We also conclude that hybrid
modeling i is a strong research tool, but it comes with drawbacks of high
and cl ing more complex modeling tools.
Saroj Koul Human Resource Planning in a Shore-based
nee Integrated Steel Plant: A SD Model
Fred C Manning School of Business Adm
307 Rhodes Hall
Wolfville NS B4P 2R6
Canada
K. R. Divakar Roy
divakarroy@ rediff.com
Andhra University
Dept of Mechanical Engineering
Visakhapatnam 530003 AP
India
Martin H. Kunc
Martin.Kunc@ whs.ac.uk
Warwick Business School
ORMS Group
Office E 0 10 Social Studies Bldg
CV47AL Coventry
UK
Lorenzo Andrade
landrade@ ulagos.cl
Universidad de Los Lagos
This paper elaborates a model of Human Resource supply and demand as
it affects the productivity of a shore-based integrated steel plant using the
System Dynamics method. The HR scenario at the plant is examined
over a period of ten years, during which it successfully operated with
one-third of the personnel in comparable steel plants in India. Also
examined is the optimal level of human resources necessary to ensure
enhanced efficiency and productivity levels, containing personnel, and
redeploying surplus personnel through retraining and relocation. The key
parameters taken up are non-executive/executive ratio, personnel
productivity, and total workers. More precisely, it identifies policies
related to (i) downsizing personnel (ii) to decreasing non-
executive/executive ratio, and (iii) improving labour productivity and
effectiveness.
Fishing Industry Dynamics: Is fish farming
sustainable? An Exploratory Study of the
Salmon Industry
In recent years, there has been an increase in the interest for fishery
dynamics in the System Dynamics field but most of the work has been
related to the management of wild fish stocks. In this paper, we present
an exploratory study of the effect of fish farming on the stock of wild
fish stocks based on the case of the Salmon industry. Fish farming does
not reduce the impact of fishing activities but it increases their effects
since it is necessary almost 6 kilograms of wild fish for each kilogram of
salmon produced.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 73
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Ana Lauge
alauge@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal no13
20018 San Sebastian
Spain
Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegi@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia
Spain
José M. Torres
jmtorres@ tecnun.es
Tecnun University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian
Spain
Rene LeClaire
1il@ lanl.gov
Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663 MS-K575
Los Alamos NM 87545
USA
Gary B. Hirsch
gbhirsch@ comcast.net
Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road
Wayland MA 01778
USA
Alisa Bandlow
abandlo@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 Mail Stop 1138
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA
The Dynamics of Crisis Lifecycle for Emergency
Management
Cascading disruptions and failures product of natural, industrial and
man-made disasters can be avoided or minimized if the concept of Crisis
Lifecycle is included and und d into
Research studies by Tumer and also by Vaughan have shown that crisis
often have long incubation times. There are numerous precursors or
wamings that are ignored or not detected. As Coombs putit, "crisis does
not just happen, it evolves". According to Coombs, a crisis lifecycle has
three stages: precrisis, crisis event and postcrisis. With this lifecycle-
view in mind, could asynchronous
management of the incubation periods, the physical manifestations of the
emergency, the restoration periods and beyond. Hence, emergency
management needs a long term approach, resolution of different
perspectives and imp! of ication. We aim to
define the characteristics of each phase by analyzing real cases
developing reference modes.
Learning Environment Simulator: A Tool for
Local Decision Makers and First Responders
The National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC)
has developed a prototype leaming environment simulator (LES) based
on the Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System
(CIPDSS) infrastructure and scenario models. The LES is designed to
engage decision makers at the grass-roots level (local/city/state) to
deepen their understanding of evolving crises, enhance their intuition
and allow them to test their own strategies for events before they occur.
An initial version is being developed, centered on a pandemic influenza
outbreak and has been successfully tested with a group of hospital
administrators and first responders. LES is not a predictive tool but
rather a simulated environment allowing the user to experience the
complexities of a crisis before it happens. Users can contrast various
approaches to the crisis, competing with alternative strategies of their
own or other participants. LES is designed to assist decision makers in
making informed choices by functionally representing relevant scenarios
before they occur, including impacts to critical infrastructures with their
interdependencies and estimating human health & safety and economic
impacts. In this paper a brief overview of the underlying models are
given followed by a description of the LES, its interface, usage and
testing experience.
74 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Man-Hyung Lee
manlee@ cbu.ac.kr
Chungbuk National Univ Urban Eng. Dept
410 Seongbong-Ro Heungduck-Gu
Cheongju 305-763 Chungbuk
Korea
Tsuey-Ping Lee
tpinglee@ ccu.edu.tw
National Chung-Cheng University
Dept of Political Science
168 University Road Min-Hsiung Chia-Y
62102 Taiwan R.O.C.
Chin-Hsueh Wang
tping@ thu.edu.tw
National Chung-Cheng University
168 University Rd Min-Hsiung Chia-Y
Taiwan 62102 R.O.C.
Christian Lehr
clehr@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss $ 202-214
68165 Mannheim
Germany
Peter M. Milling
pmilling@ bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Schwarzwaldstr 103
D-68163 Mannheim
Germany
Dynamic Interrelationship between
Administrative Consolidation and Segregation:
Korean Example
This study aims at constructing dynamic models which would measure
the direct and indirect impacts originating from the proposed
administrative integration. Specifically, it compares two antithetical
points of view, that of the existing and consolidation scenarios. Applying
Cheongju and Cheongwon sample, it tries to set up causal and stock-
flow models reflecting the above two scenarios. The simulation work
focuses on dynamics changes of major urban indicators in the mother
city of Cheongju and its vicinities, i.e. Cheongwon, respectively. It also
analyzes whether the proposed consolidation scenario would exert
meaningful positive impacts in enhancing regional attractiveness.
The Change in Residents’ Participative Behavior
in Polluted Areas: A System Dynamics
Perspective
This article explores the reasons for the declining public participation of
residents in a severely polluted community from a system dynamics
perspective by examining a set of communities polluted with dioxin in
southem Taiwan. The study examines three aspects affecting
participative behavior intention: residents’ perception of the pollution,
peer impact, and how residents perceive the impact of participation on
government response. A face-to-face interview conducted from August
to September 2008 revealed that the unintended side effect of the
government's indemnity policy has created a balancing feedback loop
that offsets the reinforcing feedback system suggested by the normative
theory of participation. In addition, the unique nature of pollution
victims mitigates the influence of an existing reinforcing feedback
system. This article concludes with policy suggestions to increase public
participation in a highly polluted community.
From Waste to Value - A System Dynamics
Model for Strategic Decision Making in Closed-
Loop Supply Chains
The purpose of this paper is to develop a system dynamics model which
allows an Original Equipment Manufacturer in the electronics industry to
test different value recovery strategies in a Closed-Loop Supply Chain
setting. Due to shortening product lifecycles and legislative regulations,
companies face the challenge of handling products at their end-of-use or
end-of-life. Accordingly, effective strategies for the collection and value
recovery of these products have to be developed. The model presented in
this paper is the preliminary result of an ongoing research project. First
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 75
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Kampeng Lei
drali1964@ yahoo.com
University of Macau
Avenida Ouvidor Arriaga No 46-48
Edif Nga Lim 13 Ander D
Macao
Zhou Shaogi
fesqzhou@ scut.edu.cn
South China University of Technology
College of Env Sci and Engineering
Guangzhou 510640
China
Lianggang Lu
lulg@ 163.net
Macao Science and Technology Assoc.
Rua Do Volong #8
3 Andar A
Macao
Lam Chikin
rainbow.charles@ gmail.com
Macao Science and Technology Assoc.
Shek Kiu Chan
skchan@ umac.mo
University of Macau
Faculty of Science and Technology
Ave Padre Tomas
Pereira Taipa Macao
Keith Thomas Linard
keith@ linard.net
John-Paul II Institute
150 La Cote Road
Greendale Victoria 3341
Australia
simulation experiments conducted on the current model structure on the
one hand show the economic potential of an engagement in value
recovery activities and on the other hand highlight the high complexity
and connectivity inherited with various value recovery processes.
The Analysis and Simulation of the Materials
Inflow and Outflow of Macao
The metabolism of a city can be seen as the process of transforming all
the materials and dities for ining the citys ic activity.
The Macao Special A dministrative Region (SAR) is a highly developed
metropolitan region where prosperous tourism has made it possible to
support a population of 0.54 million people on an area about 29.2 km2.
This paper highlights the economic and environmental transformation of
Macao by emphasizing the following aspects: the population trends,
tourists changing trends, GDP, foreign investment trends, material
resource consumption and waste generation, so as to forecast the trend of
the Macao development and provide valuable reference to government
policy makers. The result shows with the development of Macao, its area
would increase, and population density would remain the same level,
while its GDP and foreign investment might increase to the year of
2017.The imported materials would fluctuate with the equivalent
population. The mineral and the potable water increased, while sewage
would be influenced by the uncertain precipitation. This research was
financially supported by the Science and Technology Development Fund
of Macau (No.022/2007/A 2), Macao SAR, China.
Application of System Dynamics to Unsealed
Road Maintenance Management
ABSTRACT: Most pavement maintenance management systems tend to
be either non-analytical databases or statistical correlation models.
However, pavement maintenance is part of a complex system comprising
the road pavement, the environment, diverse users, the maintenance
authority and Local/State/Federal Governments. This system has
significant feedbacks, making it a suitable field for system dynamics
enquiry. This paper discusses a system dynamics based pavement
management model that was prototyped originally by engineering
students at the Australian Defence Force Academy (Hyde 1996, Jackson
1997) and refined on contract with the Australian Government. The
current model was rebuilt in Powersim Studio and refined in
collaboration with a Victorian rural Shire Council. The model analyses
the pavement deterioration over time of 530 individual segments of
unsealed rural road, prioritising rehabilitation treatments based on user
76 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Chin-Y en Alice Liu
alice.liu@ ttu.edu
Texas Tech University
Rawls College of Business Admin
ISQS Area PO Box 42101 MS2101
Lubbock TX 79409
USA
James R. Burns
jburns@ ba.ttu.edu
Texas Tech University
Rawls College of Business Admin
15th and Flint
Lubbock TX 79409-2101
USA
Balaji Janamanchi
balaji.janamanchi@ gmail.com
Texas A&M International University
PH 304C College of Business (DIBTS)
5201 University Boulevard
Laredo TX 78041-1900
USA
Hongliang Liu
liuhonglianger@ gmail.com
NUI, Galway
University Road
alway
Ireland
Enda Howley
enda.howley@ nuigalway.ie
NUI, Galway
University Road
alway
Ireland
Jim Duggan
jim.duggan@ nuigalway ie
National University of Ireland Galway
preferences and budget constraints and identifies the consequences of
different budgetary approaches. Feedback to the decision makers
includes the number of households served by very rough roads, the
number of user complaints and roughness related accident costs and
vehicle operating costs. Keywords: Pavement maintenance management;
pavement life cycle costing; unsealed road maintenance; transport
economics; economic evaluation; system dynamics.
The National Energy Dilemma: Models for
Policy Evaluation
This study is about gaining a deeper and better understanding of the
effects and implications of the current situation in the U.S. ene
markets at a macro level. In order to test what macro-level theories might
best explain the national situation, the research takes a system dynamics
perspective to cope with the behavioral complexity of the problem.
Questions to be addressed include what makes the energy markets so
volatile? Can the U.S. Government help stabilize these markets by
developing and selling some of its energy assets? How can the U.S. Gov.
encourage more private investment in renewable forms of energy?
System dynamics models are presented to study the U.S. energy situation
with a view to gaining a better understanding and to providing useful
suggestions for policy.
Individual Versus Group Rationality: A
Coevolutionary Approach to the Beer Game
In this paper, we examine the evolution of strategies in the Beer
Distribution Game (BDG). This is a well known game which has many
parallels with supply chain optimisation problems. This paper explores
the strategies used by individuals participating i in this game. The i issue of
bounded d in detail th our
This paper presente anew and alternative approach to evolving strategies
for the BDG. This includes a co-evolutionary architecture which
provides a means of evolving strategies across the various sectors of the
BDG. Our results identify the best performing or fittest strategies for the
BDG when two alternative fitness approaches are used. We show the
significant implications for individual strategies in the BDG when agents
are d by greater levels of bounded rationality. Our conclusions
Dep of Information T: gh
University Road
Galway
Ireland
indicate the implications of individual and group rationality on the BDG.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 77
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Sheng Liu
Sheng.Liu@ crossmark.com
Analytics, CROSSMARK
5100 Legacy Drive
Plano TX 75024
Rogelio Oliva
roliva@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
Mays Business School
301F Wehner 4217 TAMU
College Station TX 77843-4217
USA
Helena Williams
Helena.Williams@ crossmark.com
Analytics, CROSSMARK
5100 Legacy Drive
Plano TX 75024
USA
Corey Lofdahl
corey lofdahl@ baesystems.com
BAE Systems
6 New England Executive Park
Burlington MA 01803
USA
Luis Lopez
luis.lopez@ incae.edu
INCAE Business School
PO Box 960-4050
Alajuela 4050
Costa Rica
Minimize Out of Stock Through Optimizing
Store Operations: An analysis of restocking
policies
Out of stock (OOS) has long been a plaguing problem for both
manufacturers and retailers. It not only leads to lost sales in the short
term, but also may lose customers in the long run. OOS could be caused
by many factors, such as manufacturer production shortage, distribution
center delay, consumer demand surge, and sub-optimal store operations,
etc. In this paper, we focus on OOS caused by sub-optimal store
operations, which is responsible for between two-thirds and three-fourths
of OOS occurrences. We use system dynamics model to study the
interactions of various factors in play at store level that may lead to
OOS. We hypothesize that shelf space allocation and restocking
practices are the two most critical store operation decisions. We propose
a modeling effort and a set of experiments to determine where (which
store) and when (what day) OOS is likely to happen. We expect our
findings could be used to minimize OOS through dynamically guiding
efficient inventory management, shelf space allocation, and store
personnel deployment. A full report of the results from the modeling
effort, our analysis, and the impact of the improved policies will be
available by the time of the International System Dynamics Conference.
Keywords: Out of stock, System dynamics, Store operations..
Implementing Irregular Warfare Policy Using
Modeling and Simulation
Senior decision makers have few tools available when implementing
policy in multidisciplinary domains like Counterinsurgency (COIN) and
Irregular Warfare (IW). Modeling and simulation (M&S) is offered as an
appropriate analysis methodology for its ability to 1) combine
contributions from multiple subject matter experts, 2) generate and
analyze complex policy consequences based on various initial
conditions, and 3) provide useful results in the presence of pervasive
missing data. This paper works through an example irregular warfare
simulation problem based on The Quest for Viable Peace (Covey,
Dziedzic, and Hawley, 2005) or "QV P" that combines political,
economic, security, and rule of law strategies. Though the QVP model
was originally formulated based on A merica's experience in Bosnia and
Kosovo in the 1990s, here it is redirected and extended based on current
IW concems in Afghanistan. Used in this way, M&S combines the best
aspects of well established and recently published work bolstered by
current experience and expertise.
Judicial Process Dynamics
Becker (1968) posits the notion that criminals respond, like any other
rational agent, to the benefits and costs of their activities. From this
notion follows the deterrence hypothesis, the idea that judicial policies
can help reduce crime through an increase in the expected costs of illegal
78 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Porfirio Guevara
Porfirio.Guevara@ incae.edu
Incae, Graduate School of Business
PO Box 960-4050
Alajuela
Costa Rica
Thomas Lowry
tslowry@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 0735
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA
Robert Taylor
taylor@ alum.mit.edu
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137
USA
Alexander Lubyansky
alubyansky@ gmail.com
University at Albany
8130 Heatherton Ln Apt 204
Vienna VA 22180
USA
activities. Y et, despite implementing the suggestions implied by such
models, more and more countries undergo a large escalation of criminal
activities. We explore this issue using a longitudinal data set of relevant
judicial figures for one country. The data are used to calibrate a System
Dynamics model. We find that, contrary to what would be ordinarily
expected, criminals tend to be punished not exclusively on the basis of
their behavior, but in terms of other institutional variables. Our data
show that judges and prosecutors are prone to dismiss cases when the
backlog to be processed exceeds a threshold, in a manner that much
corresponds to the archetype "Shifting the Burden To." The effect of
judges’ decision rules which results in potential criminals who are
acquitted without apparent reason is that of creating incentives for
criminals and others to engage in criminal activities, thus causing crime
rates, and the backlog of cases, to increase even further.
Visualizing Spatial and Temporal Dynamics in
Google Earth Using Powersim
Atits genesis, system dynamics (SD) modeling was developed to
examine the temporal behavior of interrelated systems. This ability has
made SD modeling and analysis the choice for decision and policy
makers to do scenario testing and risk analysis. In addition to the
conceptual advantages of SD modeling in this realm, are the many SD
modeling platforms that have been developed that greatly simplify model
creation and more importantly, provide an environment for visualizing
the output. However, when making decisions that involve urban
planning, electrical and/or water infrastructure, and the like, or for
examining impacts of resource development on the environment, the
spatial aspects of the decision becomes just as important as the temporal
dynamics. To properly support these decisions, simultaneous
visualization of the temporal and spatial dynamics is needed. This paper
presents a methodology for utilizing vbscript from within the SD
development platform Powersim to dynamically link Powersim
simulations with Google Earth to visualize, in real time, spatial data that
change over time. The presentation will describe the logic behind the
approach, its ilities and limitati and areas for imp) that
should be addressed.
Proposed Method for Stakeholder-C entric
Simulation of Social C ognition and Social
Influence
Itis hard to study problems where boundedly rational stakeholders
determine important decisions in the system. This is because the
dynamics of boundedly rational social cognition and social influence are
complex and because data about stakeholder mental models and social
networks are difficult to elicit, organize, and test. The proposed method
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 79
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Luis F. Luna-Reyes
luisfluna@ udlap.mx
Universidad de las Americas Puebla
Casa 5D Zona D
Santa Catarina Martir
Cholula Puebla 72820
Mexico
Jorge A. Duran Encalada
jorgea.duran@ udlap.mx
Universidad de las Americas Puebla
College of Business Administration
AP No 100
Cholula Puebla 72820
Mexico
Erick R. Bandala
erick bandala@ udlap.mx
Universidad de las Américas Puebla
School of Engineering
Santa Catarina Martir
Cholula 72820
Mexico
Luis F. Luna-Reyes
luisfluna@ udlap.mx
Universidad de las Americas Puebla
Casa 5D Zona D
Santa Catarina Martir
Cholula Puebla 72820
Mexico
J. Ramon Gil-Garcia
joseramon.gil@ cide.edu
Centro de Invest. y Docencia Economica
Carretera México-Toluca No 3655
Col Lomas de Santa Fe CP
01210 México DF
Mexico
to study these kinds of problems combines data elicitation techniques
from stakel theories of f dedly rational social
cognition and social influence, and a system dynamics simulation model.
This method takes rough quali holder data, izes it into
stakeholder diagrams, and uses it to parametrically populate existing
system dynamics structure. This allows the researcher to quantitatively
simulate complex stakeholder-centric problems where data quality is
poor.
Exploring Alternatives for Sustainable
Development in Tamiahua Wetlands
This paper presents a preliminary System Dynamics model developed to
analyze sustainability of a natural reserve in Mexico: the Tamiahua
wetlands. Wetlands are often referred to as nature’s kidney because they
filter contaminants from water. In spite of their importance, wetlands are
endangered areas around the world. The preliminary model presented in
this paper suggests that fishing activity in the Tamiahua wetlands,
together with contaminants from human activity, have the potential to
damage the diversity of species in the ecosystem, endangering the
sustainability of the system. Continued work on the model is intended to
explore appropriate ways of preserving Tamiahua, providing inhabitants
with economic activities that promote the sustainability of the region.
Using Institutional Theory and Dynamic
Simulation to Understand C omplex E-
Government Phenomena
Governments around the world have developed e-govemment programs
hoping to obtain important benefits. However, many e-government
projects fail to deliver their promises. Some of such failures are the. result
of a lack of und ding about the relationshi among h
information use, izational factors, instituti ar and
socio-economic contexts involved in the selection, implementation, and
use of information and communication technologies (ICT), producing
hes and es, The paper proposes the use of
institutional theory and dynamic simulation, particularly System
Dynamics, as an integrated and comprehensive approach to understand
e-govemment phenomena. The paper draws on the case of the e-Mexico
program, particularly in the strategy to create web-based content to the
citizen in the areas of education, health, economy and government.
Using the same technological infrastructure and under the leadership of
the same Federal Ministry, four different networks of government and
80 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
John Lyneis
jlyneis@ mit.edu
MIT
1010 Massachusetts A venue A pt 56
Cambridge MA 02138
USA
John Sterman
jsterman@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142
USA
Natalia N. Lytchkina
lychkina@ imis.ru
State University of Management
Riazansky pr d 99
Moscow 109542
Russia
non-government organizations engaged in the creation of Internet portals
to create relevant content in these areas. Differences in institutional
arrangements and organizational factors resulted on different technology
enactments.
Green, Simple, and Profitable: The Paradox of
Failed Best Practices in University Building
Maintenance
Many green practices are widely understood and known to bring benefits
beyond reduced energy use. Y et, organizations often fail to implement
them. What explains these failures? Past theory suggests that adoption
and implementation will be most likely to fail when practices are
difficult to recognize given current competencies or organizational
structures, require complex knowledge, or when the organization faces
short term pressures that force it to abandon implementation early. Here,
we present a case study of an organization that fails to adopt an
important best practice despite the fact that the benefits and steps toward
implementation are well understood and extemal short term pressures are
minimal. We find that instead, short term pressures are created entirely
internally by the structure of relations across organizational boundaries,
causing individuals to misperceive the best practice as a cost that can be
put off rather than an investment with positive future retums. Thus, even
the simplest of innovations and improvements can be stymied by
dynamics intemal to an organization.
Simulation modeling of regions’ social and
economic development in decision support
systems
In the report many and for
creating Decision Support Systems for regional and federal authorities
are presented. They are based on using new information technologies
such as Data Warehousing, On-Line Analytical Processing, simulation
modeling and others. The general structure of model complex for region
social ic devel and its realization based on methods of
system dynamics and modem technologies of simulati deling are
described.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 81
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Roderick H. MacDonald
rod@ isdps.org
Initiative for SD in the Public Sector
300 G Milne Hall
University at Albany
Albany NY 12222 USA
Abhijit Mandal
‘A.Mandal@ mdx.ac.uk
Middlesex University Business School
Business & Management
The Burroughs Hendon
London NW4 2AE
UK
Aida Hajro
Aida. Hajro@ brunel.ac.uk
Brunel Business School
Uxbridge Middlesex UB8 3PH
UK
Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
imartinez@ anl.gov
Argonne National Laboratory
9700 S Cass Ave Bldg 900 DIS
Argonne IL 60439
USA
A System Dynamics Perspective of the New Y ork
State's Aggravated DWI Law
This paper examines the implications of an Aggravated DWI law passed
in November 2006 in New Y ork State. To examine the system-wide
implications of the A ggravated DWI Law, a system dynamics computer
simulation model was developed to capture the flow of drunk drivers
through the criminal justice system in New Y ork State. This system
captures people from the time of arrest, through adjudication and
sanctions, and then tracks these people for 10 years to capture
recidivism. The goal of this project was to provide insight about the
implications of the A ggravated DWI law on other parts of the system.
For example, how would the law influence the police, DAs, courts, the
drinking driver program (DDP), probation, and ali
providers, and would drunk driving be reduced? The Aggravated DWI
law allows for a felony DWI charge for any individual arrested for drunk
driving with a BAC at or above 0.18%, regardless of previous alcohol
convictions. In addition, the sanctions for an Aggravated DWI
conviction are severe and require mandatory ignition interlock, license
revocation and screening for alcoholism.
Integration in cross-border mergers and
acquisitions
Despite the increasing frequency of cross-border mergers and
acquisitions, it is accepted that the rate of success in the post-merger
phase remains poor; the main reason for this is widely accepted to be the
unsuccessful cultural integration of the two firms involved. Driven by
limited time to obtain results, managers from the headquarters (of the
acquiring firm) seek to change the culture of the subsidiary (of the
acquired firm); the imperatives of a ‘strong culture’ lead them to
persevere with the same narrow strategies and objectives. Though
organizational culture has been widely studied in the M&A literature,
there has been insufficient attention to important dynamic aspects of the
process of integration. This paper, with the help of appropriate concepts
of culture dynamics from anthropologists, formulates a description of the
ion process. Sul ly, by u a matt ical model
of this process (which explores the impact of two exogenous variables
that characterize the context) we bring out the role of endogenous
dynamics in determining the success of typical narrow strategies.
Specifically, we explain how the nature and strength of the constituent
feedback loops shape the non-uniform evolution of relevant constructs in
the integration process. We conclude with implications for managers and
researchers.
Improving Performance in Detection Systems:
Exploring a Parallel-judgment Structure
In this paper, we describe a model of two judges acting in parallel. We
expand work related to the identification of threats by analyzing the
82 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
imartinez@ anl.gov
Argonne National Laboratory
9700 S Cass Ave Bldg 900 DIS
Argonne IL 60439
USA
Stephen H. Conrad
shconra@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis
PO Box 5800 MS 1138
Albuquerque NM 87185-1138
Aldo Zagonel
aazagon@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137
USA
Ali Naghi Mashayekhi
mashayekhi@ alum.mit.edu
Sharif University of Technology
Grad School of Management and Econ.
PO Box 11365-8639 Azadi Avenue
11365 Tehran
Tran
Soheil Ghili
soheil_ir1986@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tel
Iran
Arash Pourhabib
arash.pourhabib@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
1100 Hensel Drive Apartment Y 34.
College Station TX 77840-1695
USA
effectiveness of including a second judge in the process and identifying
its effects on performance and error rates. In addition, we explore the
implications for learning under uncertainty.
Modeling Airport Security Operations
Airport security operations such as those conducted by the US
Transportation Security Administration (TSA) are complex and dynamic
in nature. As part of a multi-year effort to improve security at airports, a
system dynamics model of security operations is developed. The model
was developed to investigate strategic-level issues with a broad scope
and a multi-year time horizon. The model includes issues such as human
resources management, security system testing, operations, compliance
with standard operating procedures, and resource allocation. In the
paper, the model is described and used for policy analysis.
Andrew Cox
andrew.cox@ dhs.gov
Department of Homeland Security
Transportation Security Administration
601 South 12th Street
Arlington VA 22202
USA
Real Estate Cycles: A Theory Based on Stock-
Flow Structure of Durable Goods Markets
In this paper by means of a simple system dynamics model, we have
addressed a cycle-producing mechanism in the owner-occupied real
estate market which has not been discussed in the real estate economics
literature before. This mechanism is based on ac ion of supply
and demand which arises from specific stock-flow structure of a durable
goods market like the owner-occupied market. Comparison between our
model and a famous model of rental market (Wheaton, 1999) shows that
despite the rental market, in the owner-occupied market an increase in
durability of buildings leads to more intensive oscillations. Also the
effect of price elasticity of supply on the cycles in the owner-occupied
market is much more complex than that of the rental market.
Furthermore a model integrating the two markets is developed. Model
analysis reveals that the interrelations between the two markets make the
effect of some parameters on the rental market cycles different from
what is suggested by the rental market model. Our work uncovers the
Tich dynamic complexity of the real estate system and can serve as a
good example of applying systems thinking principles to complex real
world problems. Keywords: Real Estate Cycles; Owner Occupied
Market; Durable Goods; Cycle-Producing Mechanism (CPM); Dynamic
Complexity; System Dynamics Modeling.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 83
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Kirsten Matheus
kirsten.matheus@ gmx.de
Keplerstrasse 15
22765 Hamburg
Germany
Thomas Harbich
Carmeq GmbH
Carnotstrake 4
10587 Berlin
Germany
Anna Mayerthaler
anna.mayerthaler@ tuwien.ac.at
Vienna University of Technology
Ottakringerstrasse 19/19
1160 Vienna
Austria
Reinhard Haller
reinhard.haller@ ivv.tuwien.ac.at
Vienna University of Technology
Gusshausstrasse 30
1040 Wien
Austria
Guenter Emberger
guenter.emberger@ tuwien.ac.at
University of Technology - Vienna
Institute of Transport Planning
Gusshausstrasse 30/2
A- 1040 Vienna
Austria
Marleen H. F. McCardle-
Keurentjes
m.mccardle@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1.2.19
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Business Dynamics Model for Market
Acceptance C onsidering Individual Adoption
Barriers
The technological developments of our time provide the basis fora
continuous flow of new applications and services. But even when
allowing for significant improvements in everyday life, some of these
innovations need an incredibly long time to be broadly - if at all -
accepted in the market. Marketing and technical implementation are
often only partially responsible. Consumers additionally need to
overcome personal barriers to adopt an innovation. The height of this
barrier is determined by manifold aspects like: Financials, required
infrastructure, technical affinity, expected learning efforts, and safety
concems. In this article we introduce a market diffusion model that
explicitly takes individual adoption barriers into account, while
maintaining the top down approach of Business Dynamics. The model
includes a feedback loop between the number of existing adopters and
the number of consumers prepared to adopt the innovation. It explicitly
allows for the adoption by only a portion of the potential customers.
Furthermore, the model can reproduce tipping points and visually
explain slow market devel or unexpected late
A Land-Use/Transport interaction model for
Austria
This paper presents the attempt to set up the dynamic land-use transport
interaction (LUTI) model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation
Simulator) for a nation wide case study of Austria. To this end we
adapted the existing urban MARS model. The purpose of the model is to
capture the most i i ions and feedback mechani:
between the land-use- and the transport system. Particular attention was
paid to the structural changes of the model and the estimation of the
transport model parameters as well as the land-use model parameters,
which are modelled with a gravity model approach. For this purpose we
used the build-in optimizer of the modelling software V ensim by
minimizing the sum of squared deviations between observed and
predicted data. We present the model fit, estimated parameters and
results of a first model run (30 years).
Is Group Model Building worthwhile?
Considering the effectiveness of GMB
Many field studies are available that describe successful applications of
model-driven group decision support methodologies. However, these
studies might suffer from a potential bias of contextual factors. Recently,
there has been a call for a more rigorous testing of the effectiveness of
84 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Etiénne A.J. A. Rouwette
e.rouwette@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Jac A. M. Vennix
j.vennix@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Eric Jacobs
ejacobs@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Alexandra Medina-Borja
alexandra medinaborja@ upr.edu
University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez
Department of Industrial Engineering
II-205 Industrial Engineering Building
Mayaguez PR 00680
USA
Yesenia Cruz
Univ of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez
Dept of Industrial Engineering
Mayaguez PR 00680
USA
Joaquin Medin-Molina
jmedin@ prtc.net
Univ of Puerto Rico at Bayamon
Department of Physics
Bayamon PR
USA
James Melhuish
jamesmelhuis@ gmail.com
BAE Systems
82 Harvard Street
Newtonville MA ‘02460- 2232
USA
Nicholas Pioch
BAE Systems Advanced Info Tech
6 New England Executive Park
Burlington MA 01803
USA
model-driven methodologies. The purpose of our research is to
determine the effectiveness of a particular model-driven approach,
Group Model Building (GMB), on decision-making in a controlled
research situation. In this paper, we first clarify ‘effectiveness’ as a
construct. Then, we describe the present study. We compared groups
supported by GMB (13 groups) and not being supported (13 groups) on
perceptions of the quality of decision-making and on the quality of their
decisions. Preliminary results show that there are no winners. However,
some differences in the perceptions of the members of decision-making
groups call for further testing in the future.
Understanding the Role of Victims' Non-
Discretionary Factors in Hurricane Evacuation
Dynamics
Determining in advance emergency supplies and personnel required for a
disaster relief operation is crucial for mitigating the societal impacts of
such events. Prompt and effective response to either natural or man-
made emergencies requires the analysis of key information where the
role of disaster relief organizations is multiple. DROs approve the
assistance requested by victims and coordinate supplies and personnel
collected and transported to the disaster site. They provide mental health
services and shelter while more long-term government aid is decided.
The dynamic framework presented here was formulated to understand
the complex multi-factor dynamic processes evolving over time during a
hurricane emergency. It maps the process of interdependence between
resource availability and satisfaction with human services and the
influence of | the media reacting to victims' complaints. It hypothesizes
key mecl governing these rel E factors such
as customer reactions to the category event; training level of response
personnel; race, social stratum, home/pet ownership and education are all
taken into account. The model was built with the analysis of data
collected from victims of the 2005 Katrina Hurvicane and paired with
real operational data provided by the American Red Cross and then
calibrated/validated by real data from the 2005 Rita Hurricane.
Improving Military Strategy using Predictive
Agents with Embedded Mental Simulation
Models
Air strategy planners have the difficult task of providing commanders
with campaign plans prior to commencing operations, and
recommending options during the campaign. BAE Systems has
developed the C: Jer’s Model and lation Toolkit
(CMIST), a tool for creating and using simulation models appropriate for
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 85
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Andrew Seidel
andy seidel@ baesystems.com
BAE Systems Advanced Info Tech
6 New England Executive Park
Burlington MA 01803
USA
Mot dT. Mojtahedzadeh
mohammad.mojtahedzadeh@ boeing.com
The Boeing Company
PO Box 3707 MC4A-73
Seattle WA 98124-2207
USA
M. Hashem Moosavi Haghighi
musavee@ gmail.com
Ministry of Agriculture
PO Box 71555-617
Shiraz
Tran
high-level strategic decision-making. CMIST provides a unified
graphical interface for a variety of methodologies appropriate for
systems modeling, including System Dynamics, Bayesian cause-effect,
individual agents, Coloured Petri Nets, and other families. Recent
development on CMIST enables an agent to run an embedded simulation
model representing its own internal, usually simplified, model of the
outside world. This proactive intent model allows the agent to project the
future state of the world in order to make decisions and take appropriate
preventative measures before those future states occur. We discuss
comparative results using reactive vs. proactive intent models in the
context of our notional Insurgent Growth model.
Objective Analysis of Subjective Feedback
Structures: The Problem of C onsistency in
Explaining Model Behavior
Real-world concepts can be operationalized into variety of feedback
structures which may be mathematically identical but diverse in the
number of feedback loops. Factors including model purpose, the
modelers perspective and the intended audience all influence the final
layout of a feedback rich model. One challenge in the analysis of model
behavior is to account for the variations in the appearance of its structure
and the feedback loops. This paper focuses on consistency in explaining
model behavior illustrates some of the issues related to the cancellation
problem and figure-8 loops. Both conditions can potentially lead to poor
and even contradictory explanations of model behavior based on its
idiosyncratic feedback structure. The paper concludes by illustrating how
the pathway participation approach addresses these two issues and calls
for comparative studies to using altemative approaches to model analysis
to better understand the general principles and subtleties in connecting
the structure to the behavior and explaining observed dynamics.
Different methods in formal analysis can lear from one another and
expedite the development of user-friendly tools to aid model analysis
that serve a wider audience.
Combination of Econometric Methods and
System Dynamics Approach to Improve the
Iranian Agricultural Policies
Agriculture is an important economic sector and a strategic component
for the rural development in Iran. However, the sector has been beset by
a labour surplus situation. This situation, together with inappropriate
combination of labour with other factors of production, has caused a low
growth rate in the agricultural production. The main objective of this
study was to determine the optimal employment and production policies
in the Iranian agricultural sector. Then, production, export-import,
demand for labour and agricultural products, as well as the wage
functions were estimated using the data collected during 35 years, and
substituted in the economic component of the System Dynamics (SD)
model to simulate the outcomes. The results indicate that a downward
tum for the labour surplus problem will happen in 2008. Afterwards, the
agricultural employment will gradually decline. Consequently, the
86 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
J. Bradley Morrison
bmorriso@ brandeis.edu
Brandeis University
19 Fox Run Road
Bedford MA 01730
USA
Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6
5020 Bergen
Norway
Josephine Kaviti Musango
jmusango@ csir.co.za
CSIR
PO Box 320
Stellenbosch 7599
South Africa
cityward migration will increase, and the unemployment problem shifts
from the rural to the urban areas. The average annual production growth
rate in the 2007-2021 period is estimated at 1.8%. Furthermore, higher
duction is needed with ial i: and
adoption of appropriate technology. This study further demonstrates that
combination of the SD approach and econometrics methods is highly
effective in arriving at logical answer. Keywords: System Dynamics
Simulation, Econometrics Methods, Socio-Economic Model,
Agricultural Labour, Agricultural Sector Polices.
The Problem with Workarounds is that They
Work
Resource shortages are a fact of life in most organizations and in the
currently challenging economic climate will be even more common.
There is little doubt that resource shortages are widespread and that they
lead to undesirable outcomes, yet there has been surprisingly little
attention to questions about why they occur and even more insidiously
why they persist despite the clear adverse es. This
paper develops a grounded theory that helps to understand chronic
resource shortages, drawing on data from field work at a manufacturing
firm adopting lean manufacturing. The paper examines how the actions
of various groups (e.g., managers, production workers, and other shop
floor workers) interact with each other and with the physical
characteristics of the workplace to sustain problematic resource
shortages. The paper uses a causal loop diagram and a stylized system
dynamics model to highlight some important features of the dynamics.
Peak oil, biofuels, and long-term food security
Recent oil prices escalations, current production of biofuels from food,
and rising food prices have caused an awareness of a potential conflict
between biofuel production and food availability. Biofuels could help
countries reduce their dependence on imported oil and biofuels could
lead to some reductions in CO2 emissions. For such reasons
governments have stimulated research and development and subsidized
biofuel production. In this study we use a simulation model to study how
markets for oil, biofuel, and food may interact and develop in the long
run as world oil production peaks and starts to decline due to resource
depletion. We hypothesize that a shortage of oil will make biofuels
highly profitable, lead to a take-off for the biofuel industry, and lead to
food shortages and starvation. We do not reject this hypothesis. A
number of policies all tend to delay rather than cure the problem of food
shortage. Therefore it seems urgent to start discussing and building
support for a ban on biofuel production from food.
South African Energy Model: A System
Dynamics Approach
This paper provides a South African energy model that was developed as
a first step towards a comprehensive Threshold 21 model for South
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 87
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Alan C. Brent
abrent@ csir.co.za
NRE, CSIR
PO Box 320
Stellenbosch 7599
South Africa
Andrea Marcello Bassi
ab@ millennium-institute.org
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650
Arlington VA 22201
USA
Phuong Linh Thi Nguyen
phuonglinhmc@ gmail.com
Asian University
89 Moo 12 Highway 331
Huay Yai Banglamung
Chonburi 20150
Thailand
Trond Nilsen
xorgnz@ gmail.com
University of Washington
Dept of Systems & Ind Eng
1310 NE 52nd St
Seattle WA 98105 USA
Brian Houle
bhoule@ u.washington.edu
University of Washing
223D Condon Hall Box 353340
1100 NE Campus Parkway
Seattle WA 98195-3340 USA
Africa. The energy sector consists of five sub-models, which are
structured around the supply and demand of electricity, coal, oil, and
natural gas in the sector. The model was used to examine a set of policies
that the South African government is currently considering, e.g.
expansion of nuclear energy production and implementation of more
stringent energy efficiency measures. The analyses show that energy
efficiency measures are indeed the best option to curb the supply and
demand constraints, which the energy sector faces, in the short term. In
general, the paper demonstrates how a system dynamics approach can be
utilized effectively to support understanding of energy-related issues and
clarify the advantages and disadvantages related to the options available
to government and the private sector. The paper also highlights potential
pitfalls that may be encountered when building such a model. Future
developments include extending the model to incorporate the linkages
between the energy sector and the economy, society and environment,
which would complete the T21 framework for South A frica, and
extending the model, with models for other countries in the region, to the
Southern A frican Development Community.
The Long Runs Effects of Competitive
Undervaluation of Dong Currency on the
Economic Growth of Vietnam
After joining the World Trade Organization, Vietnam attracts more and
more foreign investment. Large increase in foreign capital has been led
to an overheating economy. Vietnam has been depreciating its currency
over the last several years compared to the dollar, making Vietnam’s
exports to the U.S. lower-priced. In short run, it helps Vietnam to
increase the exports and boost national income. However, in the long
Tun, it is expected to negatively affect the economic growth. Since
imports become expensive because of undervalued currency, Vietnam
can not afford to update the technology improvements. With the lack of
updating on technology imp! , itis i ible to maintain per
capita growth. The impacts on technological growth in Vietnam,
measured as Total Factor Productivity, can affect the per capita growth
of Vietnam. This paper investigates what long term effects on the
economy of Vietnam when the Dong currency is undervalued.
Exploring the Dynamics of Music Piracy
Recently sales of physical music media have declined along with music
industry revenues - the reasons are complex and poorly understood. We
present three models exploring claims made in the conversation over
piracy and the music industry's future. We model stakeholder
perspectives rather than the full industry to identify their assumptions
and the implications of their views, including: (1) Music industry labels
claim music piracy directly supplants music sales; (2) Artists claim free
music distribution can increase artist revenue through concert sales; and
(3) Some academics claim reduced music sales revenue is attributable to
other market changes (e.g., increased entertainment competition) rather
88 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Douglas Kuzenski
University of Washington
Information School
Arpan Sheth
University of Washington
Information School
Nathaniel Osgood
osgood@ alum.mit.edu
University of Saskatchewan
Computer Science Dpt 280.6 Thorvaldson
110 Science Place
Saskatoon SK S7N 5C9
Canada
Nathaniel Osgood
osgood@ alum.mit.edu
University of Saskatchewan
Computer Science Dpt 280.6 Thorvaldson
110 Science Place
Saskatoon SK S7N 5C9
Canada
than piracy. Modeled results suggest that, for each claim respectively:
(1) Music labels' mental models are simplistic and do not reflect current
research findings; (2) Artists can enhance their concert revenues through
piracy as free marketing; and (3) competition with other media explains
part of declining music industry revenues.
SILVER: Software in Support of the System
Dynamics Modeling Process
While the System Dynamics modeling process can yield invaluable high
level insights, it gives rise to a tremendous amount of detail complexity.
In the course of their work, modelers must track successive model
versions, the motivation for and assumptions underlying particular “what
if” scenarios, and the implicit relationships between scenarios, model
versions and various extemal artifacts such as spreadsheets, symbolic
culations, and extemal d ion. Failure to
adequately manage such complexity can reduce the transparency,
, and ility of the modeling process. While adl to
good modeling practices can aid this process, it often falls prey to
comer-cutting or human error. This paper describes software that helps
manage such complexity, by permitting modelers to easily access and
succinctly compare historic versions of a model, by making explicit
linkages between scenarios, the model versions and assumptions
underlying them, and the motivations for and external files associated
with model artifacts.
Representing Progression and Interactions of
Comorhbidities in A ggregate and Individual-
Based Systems Models
Health policy models have attracted significant offered important
insights in to health trends and policy selection. More complete
accounting for the cost and health implications of upstream interventions
is hindered by the need to consider impact on, and interactions between,
multiple comorbidities. Within this paper, we explore several distinct
approaches for representing comorbidities, some of them at the
aggregate level, and some of them at the individual level. All of these
representations have the virtue of being declarative, in that they allow
the user to focus on what is to be characterized, rather than how it is to
be implemented. Our exploration suggests that while several aggregate
representations of comorbidities are possible, they suffer from a variety
of shortcomings, ranging from low fidelity to combinatorial blowup.
While individual-level representations impose a heavy performance load,
greater difficulties in calibration and less rapid analysis, such
representations do offer greater transparency, modifiability, scalability,
and modularity, and ease of representing transmission and influence
networks. With much to recommend each approach, further research is
needed to shed additional light on the tradeoffs and identify situations
where one representation is preferable to another.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 89
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Peter Otto
ottop@ union.edu
Union Graduate College
410 Terrace Road
Schenectady NY 12306
USA
Martin Simon
si.m@ bluewin.ch
ipgroup
Ruetistrasse 4
CH-8126 Zumikon
Switzerland
Benedict Oyo
boyo@ citmak.ac.ug
Makerere University
Faculty of Computing and IT
PO Box 7062
Kampala
Uganda
Onur Ozgiin
onur.ozgun@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University
Industrial Engineering Department
Bebek 34342 Istanbul
Turkey
Yaman Barlas
ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University
Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul
Turkey
Coordinating quality care: A policy model to
simulate adoption of electronic health records
This article reports on a theoretical simulation model to investigate
effects from policy interventions in the adoption of electronic health
records among hospitals, physicians, and patients. The project draws on
established system dynamics diffusion theories and provides a
conceptual framework to develop and test interventions to promote
adoption of electronic medical records. Using data from the Greater
Capital Region, Northem New Y ork State, the findings from the
simulation experiments suggests that there is no single right intervention
but a combination of measures to promote the use of electronic health
records not only on the provider side but also among patients.
Re-conceptualisation of Participative Modelling
Process Design Effectiveness and Outcomes
Research into improvement of the design of system dynamics modelling
process has attracted little attention probably because system
dynamicists find existing designs adequate. However, participative
modelling which involves clients/participants without prior modelling
knowledge requires methodological details that show how a real-life
situation translates into a simulation model. This paper calls for renewed
attention on the critical i that make parti
process design more effective. Such requirements have been found to
include: suitability of system dynamics for client's problem; purpose of
modelling effort; clarity of client's problem; number of participants and
whom to involve in the modelling process; the phase in the model
building process and type of task performed; time available from
participants. In addition, a rigorous design emphasises modelling process
outcomes arising from iterations in problem articulation cycle, modelling
proficiency cycle and solution refinement cycle. In harmonising these
two streams of design considerations, this paper investigates two
research questions at the interface of modelling design effectiveness and
modelling outcomes.
Discrete vs. Continuous Simulation: When Does
It Matter?
The purpose of this study i is to illustrate the similarities ‘and differences
between discrete event simul and
A simple M/M/2 queuing system with crowd-dependent arrival rate is
used. In the first part, the arrival rate decreases immediately as the
number of customers in the system increases. The system is modeled
using discrete event and continuous simulation. The results of two
simulations are compared with each other and with their analytical
solutions. In the second part, the number of customers in the system
affects the arrival rate first with a continuous information delay, then
with a discrete delay. Discrete and continuous simulations give very
similar results in terms of dynamic behaviors of system variables. There
90 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Ozge Pala
o.pala@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
School of Management
Th van Aquinostraat 1 2 2 PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Jamshid Parvizian
jparvizian@ gmail.com
Isfahan University of Technology
Isfahan 8415683111
Iran
Shakiba Khademolgorani
shakiba_kh@ in.iutac.ir
Isfahan University of Technology
Industrial Department
Isfahan
Tran
Mohamad Hossein Askari Tabatabaei
mh.askaritabatabaei@ in.iut.ac.ir
Department of Industrial Engineering
Isfahan University of Technology
Isfahan
Tran
Ron Pate
repate@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Energy, Resources, and Systems Analysis
PO Box 5800
Albuquerque NM 87185-0735
are some minor differences in terms of the steady-state values of the
variables, particularly the average time spent in system. Finally,
increasing proportionately all parameters of the system (arrival rate and
number of servers), reduces the discreteness of the system, bringing the
discrete and continuous simulation results much closer.
Dynamics of Escalation of Commitment
Escalation of commitment refers to the tendency of decision-makers to
invest in failing courses of action. Research has shown that there are
various causes of escalation, ranging from to psychological
social, and organizational factors. Even though the existence of the
escalation bias is well established through experimental and case
research the dynamics of escalation is not very clear. There are two
possible explanations to how commitment evolves to generate escalation.
The first one is the temporal model which suggests that initially
economic factors will be determined and in time behavioral factors will
gain dominance. The second one is the aggregate model which suggests
that the relative importance of behavioral variables versus economic
factors leads to escalation or withdrawal. This paper reports on a System
Dynamics model that was used to test these two explanations to see
which generates the escalation prototype.
System Dynamics Modeling of Emigration and
Brain Drain
Net migration rate of -3.28 migrants/1000 population ranked Iran 145th
in the world. Popular di about Iranian immigration focuses on the
social and political freedoms associated with relocation. In the current
research, the focus is on the authority of the educated people, their
impacts on the society, their access to the power and the wealth which
seems far negligible. The elites of Iran are no longer the educated
people. Based on this assumption, a system dynamics approach is
presented to study the long term effects of the emigration on Iranian
society. Each emigrant develops themselves in the target country and
attracts more emigrants. The success and satisfaction in the target
country motivates the young generation to move than to change. The
emigrants, when their number increases to millions, form a basement to
attract more talented ones from the source country. Emigration of elites
is more than a move of people; it has important negative effects on the
country to produce wealth, to become industrialized, and to produce
more talented generations.
Systems modeling and analysis for commercial
pathways assessment of oil crop based biofuels in
Hawaii
A systems-level analysis was conducted to assess the
potential for growing oilseeds and refining the oil into advanced
biofuels. A system dynamics model was constructed to be the primary
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 91
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Stephen H. Conrad
shconra@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis
PO Box 5800 MS 1138
Albuquerque NM 87185-1138
USA
Aldo Zagonel
aazagon@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137
Kawika Pierson
kawika@ mitedu
MIT
235 Albany Street #8031
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
Roberto Poles
roberto.poles@ rmit.edu.au
RMIT University
42 Coates Street
Bentleigh VIC 3204
Australia
France Cheong
france.cheong@rmit.edu.au
RMIT University
School of Business Info Tech
239 Bourke Street
Melboume Vic 3000
Australia
analysis tool employed to evaluate the economic potential for growing
oilseeds at a commercial scale and refining the oil into renewable jet fuel
and green diesel. Focus was placed on initial penetration into niche
markets - ones thought to offer the most favorable economic conditions.
Here we use Hawaii as an exemplar of our commercialization analysis
approach. If a case for commercialization can be made for one (or
several) niche markets, they could serve as nucleation sites for
improving production efficiencies and serve as the “jumping-off point”
for much more widespread commercialization. Conversely, if it proves
difficult to make the case for commercialization within these most-
favorable market niches, we will have learned that commercialization is
unlikely to be economically viable anywhere at present - and
importantly, the analysis will have helped identify the chief obstacles to
jalization and what conditions will be required to change for
commercialization to become economically viable in the future.
Modeling the Cyclical Nature of Aggregate
Airline Industry Profits
The aggregate profits of the airline industry have been dominated by a
cyclical mode since before deregulation in the 1970s. In this paper we
discuss several dynamics that combine to cause profit cycles: The
misperception of the delay around capacity acquisition, the pro-cyclical
ticket price setting policy and the countercyclical effect of industry
congestion on passenger demand. By adding numerous endogenous
feedbacks, extensions of previously used standard structures and wholly
new structures we quantify the strength of these feedbacks, replicate the
past behavior of the industry, and prescribe policies that can help to
mitigate the cycle in airline industry earnings.
Inventory Control in Closed Loop Supply C hain
using System Dynamics
Inventory control is a fundamental activity in closed loop supply chains,
icularly for facturing processes. Several models have been
developed in the literature where the aim is mostly to optimize cost or
profit and to find the optimal order quantity for an integrated production
and remanufacturing system. In this study, we explore a System
Dynamics approach in order to model an inventory control system for a
remanufacturing process in the context of a Closed Loop Supply Chain.
Particularly, the return process is modelled through the influences
relationships which several factors have on such process. The factors
considered are residence time of the product with customer, service
agreement with customers and customer behaviour in returning used
products. The findings suggest that a reduction of residence time and an
increase in the level of service agreement with customers, which in tum
increases customer behaviour in retuming used product, can lead to
efficiency in inventory management for companies involved in
remanufacturing process. In addition, we provide two simple case studies
in support of these findings.
92 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Erik Pruyt
e.pruyt@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
Erik Pruyt
e.pruyt@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
Erik Pruyt
e.pruyt@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
Erik Pruyt
e.pruyt@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
The Soft Drugs Debate in the Netherlands: A
Qualitative System Dynamics A nalysis
The Dutch Soft Drugs policy will soon be under review. Regarding
Dutch Soft Drugs policy, the Dutch population and political arena could
be divided into three groups: those who do not really care, those strongly
in favor of legalizing cultivation and use of soft drugs, and those strongly
in favor of banning soft drugs. The points of view of the two latter
groups are analyzed in this paper using a qualitative System Dynamics
perspective.
Cholera in Zimbabwe
By the end of December 2008, alarming reports and articles concerning
the cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe received plenty of intemational media
coverage. By that time 30000 cases of cholera infections and 1600
cholera deaths had been reported. In the first week of January 2009, a
System Dynamics simulation model related to this cholera epidemic was
created which was tumed into a ‘hot’ testing/teaching case. Although the
model contains some bold assumptions, the dynamics of the model is
sufficiently interesting for to be presented. This case is a System
Dynamics study under uncertainty focused on exploring the general
dynamics over time.
Saving a Bank? Cracking the Case of the Fortis
Bank
This paper presents a simple experimental System Dynamics model of
the underlying value and market values of a bank to analyze the loss of
trust in the bank. The System Dynamics model was developed on 28
September 2008 -the day the governments of the Benelux countries met
ina great hurry to rescue the Fortis bank- in order to gain a better
understanding of the potential dynamics of bank crises and to test
policies for keeping banks from collapsing. The System Dynamics
model -as well as the exam case based on it- is interesting because of
the actuality and importance of the topic, the small size and simplicity of
the model, its potential to generate different dynamic behaviors, and its
usefulness for policy exploration.
Making System Dynamics Cool? Using Hot
Testing & Teaching Cases
This paper deals with the use of ‘hot’ real-world cases for both testing
and teaching purposes such as in the Introductory System Dynamics
course at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. The paper
starts with a brief overview of the System Dynamics curriculum. Then
the problem-oriented teaching and testing approach is explained,
followed by a ion and discussion of several les of ‘hot’
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 93
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Erik Pruyt
e.pruyt@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
Jill H. Slinger
j.h.slinger@ tbm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5
2628 BX Delft
Netherlands
Cornelia van Daalen
c.vandaalen@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Tech Policy and Mgt
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
Gonenc Y iicel
g.yucel@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5 Room B-3-280
2628 BX Delft
The Netherlands
Michael Quigley
michael@ michael-quigley.com
University of Salford
6 Come Street
Little Hulton Manchester M38 9WG
UK
Brian C. Dangerfield
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford
Salford Business School CORAS
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford M5 4WT
UK
cases. The main goal of presenting the use of ‘hot’ testing/teaching cases
is to spur other System Dynamics lecturers on to doing the same, and to
start up a small network for exchanging the ‘hottest’ cases.
Hop, Step, Step and J ump Towards Real-W orld
Complexity @ Delft University of Technology
This paper deals with System Dynamics education at Delft University of
Technology, the Netherlands. It focuses more specifically on the
quadruple jump approach towards dealing with real-world dynamic
complexity. The paper starts with an overview of the System Dynamics
courses, situated within the broader curriculum. Then recent innovations
in the Introductory System Dynamics course are discussed. Finally, some
of the lessons learned are distilled. The rationale behind this paper are
the beliefs that (higher) education determines to a large extent the quality
of (the next generation) professional System Dynamics modelers, and
hence, the field of System Dynamics as a whole, and that sharing
(innovative and/or proven) educational practices, and exchanging actual
and challenging (teaching and testing) cases may lead to further
improving the quality of System Dynamics education.
Wil A. Thissen
thissen@ tbm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
The Economics of Education: is it Profitable to
be Ignorant?
In the UK, formal tertiary education comes at monetary cost to those
who choose to participate. Currently 43% of young people enter
universities in the belief that they will recoup the initial expense in
higher salaries, later in life. Whilst this is a historically true model for the
majority of graduates, many analysts believe that the Government's push
for a 50% participation rate, coupled with rising costs to attend
university, could affect the profitability of higher education and lead to a
situation where ignorance is not only bliss but also an economically
sound decision. This paper explores the current situation conceming the
economic benefit of higher education: building a model to represent
subject areas that do and do not offer long-term economic benefits. A
stock-and-flow model is built, as a policy tool, to articulate where the
delays appear in the system and reasons behind cyclical supply-demand
employment gaps.
94 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Jaziar Radianti
jaziar.radianti@ hia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ uia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway
Eliot Rich
rich@acm.org
University at Albany
A Quest for a Framework to Improve Software
Security: Vulnerability Black Markets Scenario
There are numerous discussions on possible leverage points in improving
software quality and they have been placed in various context--from
technical approach, improving user education to economic approach.
One of central points of the discussions is on the best policy to handle
vulnerability discoveries. Various approaches have been developed:
from secret reporting, full-disclosure, responsible disclosure to a market
approach. The dominant aspect of the latter is about the Vulnerability
Black Market (VBM), which emerged due to the latter development, as
an alternative for malicious hackers to sell exploits and malware that
take advantage of the flaws in the software. The model in this paper
draws on empirical observation on black markets and market-based
approach for vulnerability discovery to generate a simple model of
VBM. The model results suggest that efficient legal markets may attract
Dept of Info T gy Mi
1400 Washington Avenue BA-310
Albany NY 12222
USA
Martin Rafferty
rafferm@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA
UK
Mahtab Farshchi
m.farshchi@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA
UK
Martin Rafferty
rafferm@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA
UK
licious hackers to enter the legal markets and may reduce their
likelihood to be involved in vulnerability black markets. However, better
patching management may mitigate the abuse of software vulnerabilities.
A Simulation Modelling of Property Markets: A
Case of the UK Housing Market
This paper provides a system approach to the analysis of the property
markets by first setting out a high level model of the market. The
imperfections in information and distortions in such markets are widely
acknowledged and accounted for while the role of legal, financial and
social institutions being emphasised. The rate of production in the
property markets in most advanced economies is a function of
institutional factors as developed over time representing unique and
path- dependent characteristics. The paper describes the main factors that
have gone into the production of a general System Dynamics simulation
model of the property markets which further focuses on the
characteristics of the UK housing market as a case study and provides an
analysis of its current structure. The paper indicates how in the absence
of reliable and sufficient information simulation modelling can aid
decision making in the real estate. As an imperfect market the role and
potential areas of impact of governmental policy are outlined. The
effects of tightening worldwide credit regimes on the UK construction
industry are included in the model. The relationships between the credit
crunch and the behaviour of the construction industry are identified and
are explored. The analysis presented in the paper concludes with
potential scenarios for determining the future behaviour of the market.
Butterflies and Buffers
This paper presents a brief discourse on chaotic behaviour and provides
an implementation of a classical example from existing chaos theory; the
Lorenz strange attractor. The implementation is carried out using
standard System Dynamics software and techniques. The paper then
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 95
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Hossein Rahdari
rahdarii@ yahoo.co.uk
Sharif University
Graduate School of Management & Econ
Azadi Ave
Tehran Iran
Mohammad Amin Zargarzadeh
a_zargarzadeh@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
298 Shahid Soheili Khalabanan St
Maaliabad Shiraz Iran
Hamed Nozari
hanozari@ yahoo.com
University of Tehran
Department of Imgation
Karaj Iran
Leila Soltani
laylasoltani@ yahoo.com
Sharif University
No 43 Malekian St
Transhahr St KarimKhan St
Tehran Iran
Hossein Rahdari
rahdarii@ yahoo.co.uk
Sharif University
Graduate School of Management & Econ
Azadi Ave
Tehran Iran
Alireza Forouzan
ali_forozan@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Atefe Ramezankhani
atefe.ramezankhani@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Thechnology
Room 99 Block 9 Tarasht 2 Dormitory
Moslem Hoseinmardi St Azadi Avn
Tehran Iran
goes on to describe a classical buffered feedback system; the K tesibios
clock. The implementation of this feedback system is again carried out
using standard System Dynamics software and techniques. Both systems
are then amalgamated to unite the butterfly effect of the Lorenz attractor
with the buffered nature of the water clock. It is postulated that the
resultant taming of the chaotic behaviour generated by the Lorenz
attractor through the feedback buffer of the Ktesibios machine is
common to many systems; brief examples are given. It is concluded that,
in some cases at least, it is the overwhelming of the buffer that leads to a
tipping point retuming the whole system to a state of chaotic behaviour.
Implementing a model of a natural buffered system with chaotic input is
identified as an area for further work.
Gasoline Rationing Plan in Iran: A Symptomatic
Solution
Iran is a resource-based country and these resources have brought
advantages and disadvantages for the country. It seems that
disadvantages are results of mismanagement of the resources and not the
existence of resources. Fuel subsidy is an example of such
mismanagements. Actually while fuel subsidies are common in the
Middle East, the oil-richest place of the world, Iranian domestic fuel
prices are among the lowest in the world. The low fuel prices, population
and urbanization growth caused growth of fuel consumption and
consequently growth of subsidies. But because nothing can grow forever,
two years ago the government had to start rationing plan to reduce the
growth of consumption due to budget and gasoline stock limitations. In
this paper we are going to model the dynamics of the problem and
answer why the government had to execute the rationing plan. In
addition, we try to show that this solution is not a fundamental solution.
It is a symptomatic solution and after a while ration of each car will
decrease. In the end, we offer two policies to limit the demand naturally,
not by force of rationing plan, and try to offer a fundamental solution to
manage the fuel consumption.
Analyzing the Effect of Global Steel Price
Fluctuation on Iran's Steel-Maker Stock Prices:
A System Dynamics A pproach
Steel making is an energy intensive industry and for this reason, energy
prices, especially oil and natural gas prices, have an important effect on
this industry. In 2008, the sharp rise of crude oil as well as iron ore price
caused the sharp rise of steel price because of the rise in prices of key
production factors. But Iran's producers experienced almost no rise in
their production factor prices especially key factors of energy and iron
ore prices. As a matter of fact, inexpensive energy and iron ore are
competitive advantages of steel makers in Iran because the huge natural
resources of the country let the government to provide inexpensive
production factors for the industry. But these inexpensive factors have
some side effects that one of them is on the stock price of steel makers in
stock market. In this paper we are to model the effects of fluctuations in
96 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Pouyan Foroughi
pouyanforoughi@ gmail.com
Sharif University Of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Hazhir Rahmandad
hazhir@ vtedu
Virginia Tech
Norther Virginia Center Rm 430
7054 Haycock Road
Falls Church VA 22043
USA
Thanujan Ratnarajah
thanujan@ vLedu
Virginia Polytechnic Institute
Industrial & Systems Engineering Dept
7054 Haycock Road
Falls Church VA 22043
USA
Atefe Ramezankhani
atefe.ramezankhani@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Thechnology
Room 99 Block 9 Tarasht 2 Dormitory
Moslem Hoseinmardi St Azadi Avn
Tehran
Iran
Mostafa Najafiyazdi
najafiyazdi.m@ gmail.com
McGill University
688 Sherbrooke West
CED Lab
Montreal Quebec
Canada
Meesala Srinivasa Rao
msrsrinivasa@ gmail.com
Indian Institute of Technology
Reliability Engineering Centre
IIT Kharagpur 721302
West Bangal
India
world steel price on stock price of one of Iranian steel producers. In the
end, we will offer some policies to mitigate the fluctuations of stock
prices.
Deciding on Software Pricing and Openness
Under Competition
The success of many open source applications has motivated commercial
firms to explore how they can benefit from opening their software
platforms in hope of getting free high quality contributors and more
complementary products. Y et the openness decision is tightly coupled
with the pricing of the software (e.g. openness limits the price that can be
charged) and the reinforcing feedback loops of network effects and
complementary products. In this paper we explore how there
interconnections impact the optimum pricing and openness decision for
two firms in competition. Reinforcing loops increase the value of early
market lead and put pressure on the competing firms to seek such
advantage. We show that the competitive equilibrium under strong
reinforcing loops calls for highly | open. software products with deep early
discounts, which may the profitability of the
players in the market. Proprietary platforms and higher prices are
favored in the absence of these loops.
A Model for Technology Life Cycle (TLC) from
System Dynamics View point
Technology life cycle (TLC) is what leads to product and process life
cycles. Understanding the complexities and dynamical behavior of TLC
is the key concept for managing the technology, policy making and
strategies such as pricing or marketing. Some major works has been
done on modeling PLC (Product life cycle), pricing strategies and
marketing within an industry or among some competitor organizations.
Although many there are a lot of works on TLC almost all of which
declare its complexity and dynamical behavior, little effort is given to
study TLC from a dynamical view point. In this work, a system
dynamics model is presented for TLC based on major casual loops which
drive the essence of dynamic behavior of TLC in order to have a base for
of unique such as multi technology,
and performing an analysis on some of key parameters controlling TLC.
System Dynamics simulation based hybrid
approach for reliability analysis
System reliability is considered as an important performance index.
Repairable standby system's study and analysis is an important topic in
reliability. Analytical techniques become very complicated and
unrealistic especially for modem complex systems. There have been
attempts in the literature to evolve more realistic techniques using
simulation approach for reliability analysis of systems. This paper
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 97
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Joaquim Rocha dos Santos
jrsantos@ usp.br
Universidade de Sao Paulo
Rua Cardoso de Almeida 1165 / 132
CEP 05013-001 Sao Paulo SP
Brazil
Marcelo Ramos Martins
mrmartin@ usp.br
Universidade de Sao Paulo
Escola Politecnica
Av Prof Mello Moraes 2231
Sao Paulo SP 05508-900
Brazil
Abraham Sin Oih Yu
abraoyu@ ipt.br
Universidade de Sao Paulo
Paulo Tromboni Nascimento
tromboni@ usp.br
Universidade de Sao Paulo
Scott F. Rockart
srockart@ duke.edu
Duke University
Fuqua School of Business
Box 90120
Durham NC 27708
USA
Shayne Gary
sgary@ unsw.edu.au
University of New South Wales
School of Strategy & Entrepreneurship
Level 5 East Wing
Sydney NSW 2052
Australia
Elena Vidal
Duke University
proposes a hybrid approach called as Markov System Dynamics (MSD)
approach which combines the Markov approach with system dynamics
simulation approach for reliability analysis and to study the dynamic
behavior of systems. This approach will have the advantages of both
Markov as well as System dynamics methodologies. The proposed
framework is illustrated for a standby system with repair with a
numerical example. The results of the simulation when compared with
that obtained by traditional Markov analysis clearly validate the Markov
System Dynamics (MSD) approach as an alternative approach for
reliability analysis.
Renewable Energy: A Framework to Model a
Brazilian C ase of Success (Part I)
In 1973, the first oil crisis leaded most countries to experience economic
problems due to sudden unbalance in their trade balance. This leads to
reactions, limited at the beginning due to short term inelasticity of
petroleum demand, but relevant in long term. Brazil started the Proalcool
program, which extended from 1979 to 1990, with the use of ethanol
cars (E-100). In 1990 this program was ended, due to economic
problems. A decline in international petroleum prices and an increase in
intemational sugar prices, leaded to shortage of ethanol. This shortage
made the users confidence to decline. From that point on, ethanol cars
acquisitions almost dropped to zero. In 2003 a technological innovation,
the flex fuel electronic injection, was launched and was a huge success.
In approximately three years, about 85% of all cars sold in Brazil were
using this technology. It caused a boom in ethanol industry which
competes in terms of resources with sugar industry. This paper presents a
framework to simulate the first period of the overall program which lasts
from 1970 to 2003.
Decision Rules and Organziational Dynamics
What forces shape the dynamics of individual organizations and the
dynamics of organizational populations? We look at how much
difference exists in firms' decision rules and how those differences help
explain differences in the patterns of growth and decline among
competing firms. Using a large data set of German consumer magazines
- observed quarterly from 1972 to 2006 - we estimate and compare
magazines' decision rules on a few key dimensions: pricing to
advertisers; pricing to readers; and the number of editorial pages to be
included in the magazine. We then embed these rules into a system
dynamics model of magazine operations developed by Hall (1976) to
evaluate how fully differences in decision rules explain differences in
firm dynamics. Our hope is that this style of research, taking rich models
based on case studies of individual organizations and generalizing them
to explain the varied dynamics of entire populations of organizations,
will have two contributions. First, it will show the extent to which
differences in rules in organizations explain differences in organizational
dynamics. Second, it will allow us to leverage the body of existing
carefully executed SD case studies into a broader and still richer basis
for understanding firm dynamics.
98 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Luisa Fernanda Rodriguez
Valbuena
luisa_frv@ yahoo.com
Universidad Autonoma de Colombia
Clle 175 17a-11 Casa 68 Alameda Res
Bogota
Colombia
K. R. Divakar Roy
divakarroy@ rediff.com
Andhra University
Dept of Mechanical Engineering
Visakhapatnam 530003 AP
India
Saroj Koul
saroj.koul@ acadiau.ca
Acadia University
Fred C Manning School of Business Adm
307 Rhodes Hall
Wolfville NS B4P 2R6
Canada
William Ryder
onebyke2ryders@ gmail.com
6735 Allview Drive
Columbia MD 21046
Applying didactics for the creation of a
cooperative, non-competitive environment: a
study case in entrepreneurship and team
This research was carried out with the aim of suggesting a new approach
to the concept of entrepreneurship as boosting the skills of economic
self-sufficiency and team work among the students of the branches for
technical and commercial training at the "A quileo Parra" and "Rafel
Uribe Uribe"- educational complexes. We formulated a comprehensive
hodological, | and adaptable framework, i ducing its
contents as well as its practical and future implications. The main feature
is a tight relation to the socio-economic context. In order to obtain a
clear profile of the subjects we measured the latent entrepreneurial
potential among the students by means of questionnaires and
sensibilization workshops which created a non-competitive environment
through interaction activities and systems dynamics.
Financial Performance Appraisal of a Steel
Plant: An SD Model
Proper analysis of the financial statements of a company provides
valuable insights into financial performance. Financial ratio analysis, a
principal tool of financial analysis, determines a company's ability to
raise external financing. In the present work, detailed System Dynamics
(SD) modeling and analysis of the financial performance of a shore
based integrated steel plant is undertaken. The key financial ratios used
for simulation and analysis are (i) Liquidity ratios (ii) Tummover ratios
and (iii) Profitability ratios over a period of 20 years from 1994. SD
model is successfully applied to portray the dynamic behaviour of the
financial system of the plant.
A System Dynamics View of the Phillips
Machine
Although system dynamics practitioners appeal to a bathtub analogy to
explain the basic concepts of system dynamics, few physical water based
models have been used for this purpose. The celebrated Phillips
machine, a hydraulic macroeconomics model built in 1949, illustrates
how this was done for a serious model of a macroeconomic system. This
paper reviews the physical modeling constructs exemplified by the
Phillips machine, relates them to standard system dynamics notation, and
proposes two similar machines to represent basic structures in system.
dynamics instruction.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 99
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Felicjan Rydzak
frydzak@ gmail.com
Felix Consultancy
ul Wagnera
52-129 Wroclaw
Poland
Winston P. Ledet
wpledet@ mfg-game.com
Ledet Enterprises, Inc.
7702 FM 1960 East Suite 226
Humble TX 77346
USA
Paul A. Monus
monuspa@ bp.com
BP Exploration and Production
7501 Labrador Circle
Anchorage AK 99502
USA
Alexander V. Ryzhenkov
a.ryzhenkov@ bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar / BWL
Schloss
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany
Sustainable Organizational C hange - Can you
make the change happen with Large Teams
alone?
The article presents some insights from ongoing research on sustainable
organizational change. It focuses on a concept of improvements actions
conducted by teams within manufacturing organization. There are
considered two types of approaches, namely bottom-up - example of
which are empowered, small, cross-functional teams; and top-down -
large teams following rigorous problem solving methodologies. In order
to investigate impact of small teams and large teams on the
organizational system structure a System Dynamics model was
developed. The model investigates the effectiveness of both kinds of
hes from the ive of ional change
effort. The analysis of the model and simulation results is supported by
example of successful organizational change in Lima Refinery. In the
conclusion section the implications for sustainable organizational change
efforts are presented.
A System Dynamics Design of the US Economy
Exit from the Stern Crisis
This paper re-defines two hypothetical laws of capital ecumulation by
including end profit i share and estal:
explicit inverse relation between this share and capital-output ratio.
Other main state variables are labour productivity, employment ratio and
unit value of labour force. A comprehensive Phillips equation, governing
teal labour compensation, is an element of a hypothetical law (HL-IR).
Projecting future macroeconomic evolution takes into account structural
changes in primary distribution of net value added. A fter the recent neo-
conservative defeat there is no place for stabilising policy with the same
or similar aggressiveness as in 2002-2007. Based on the US
macroeconomic data mainly for 1969-2007, computer simulation runs
for a later period (through 2060) exhibit how a postponed non-aggressive
application of CL-IR in 2012 and afterwards could smooth out long
waves of capital accumulation and shorten a period of fluctuations from
24-27 to 14-16 years in the restructured US economy compared to
evolution based on HL-IR. The present stem crisis of the capital
accumulation, probably deepest after the World War II, will last until
2018-2022 when the pre-crisis maximum of net output is restored and
2023-2026 when the pre-crisis maximum of employment is reached
again.
100 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
Abdolrahim Salavitabar
a.salavitabar@ gmail.com
Abazma Research Center
21 Sixth Mehr Alle Fatemieh St
Saba Blvd Ghytarieh Shariaty Ave
Tehran 19336
Tran
Ahmad Abrishamchi
abrisham@ sharif.edu
Sharif University
Civil Engineering Dept
Azadi Street
Tehran
Tran
Jason Sardell
jason_sardell@ hotmail.com
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
43 Baker Rd.
Berlin MA 01503
USA
Stray dogs, street gangs and terrorists:
manifestations of a latent capacity support
system
Pests and other undesirabl lations offer iderable resilience to
interventions attempting to limit or eradicate them. These interventions
often directly aim at reducing these populations through either by
limiting their procreation or accelerating their demise. For example, stray
dogs roam the streets of many major A sian cities in spite of the efforts to
euthanize or castrate them. Street gangs and the violence associated with
them continue in many North A merican cities in spite of considerable
effort on part of law and order institutions to contain them. Suicide
attacks menacing public continue in central Asian countries like
Pakistan, Iraq and A fghanistan in spite of the concerted military
offensives to eradicate their perpetrators. This poster will suggest that a
latent capacity enablement structure that maintains the inflow into the
undesirable population exists in all such cases. Interventions not
cognizant of this structure may only address symptoms and not alleviate
the root cause. The capacity enablement process as a generic metaphor
may help to bring the latent root cause to fore.
A System Dynamic A pproach to Integrated
Water Resources Management of West
Jazmourian (Halil) Basin, Iran
Abstract: Water scarcity, growing demand, low productivity, and water
and land-resources degradation are major threats to sustainability and
equity principles are main water resources management challenges in
arid and semi arid regions in general and in Iran in particular. The
increasing demand for water in recent decade has put the water resource
systems in instability. Moreover the future water demand will definitely
bring critical condition for the inability of water The
objective is to define a conflict resolution mechanism for present and
future demands in a complex water resources system with the objective
of system sustainability subject to uncertainty in natural phenomenon
and management strategies. Results show that demand management as
well as other management policies is essential for sustainability of the
system. System Dynamic (SD) approach is employed and interactive
user friendly media bring possibility to visualize the outcome of each
management strategy, stakeholder behavior and probable hydro-climatic
condition.
Economic Origins of the Mafia and Patronage
System in Sicily
Organized crime satisfies a demand for necessary social services in the
absence of effective government institutions. This paper examines the
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 101
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Oleg V. Pavlov
opavlov@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Sangeeta Sardiwal
sardiws@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA
UK
Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl
Universidad de Talca
‘ACE
Avenida Lircay s/n
Talca
Chile
ise of the Sicilian mafia. Using system dynamics, we model this system
and test various policies to determine what factors have the greatest
impact on mafia power. Based on the experiments, the most effective
policies for reducing mafia power are those that decrease the demand for
private protection services by reducing the threat of banditry in society,
and not those policies that act against the mafia directly. We also
examine historical examples of other mafia-type organizations and
discover that our findings apply not just to Sicily, but also to other
societies including present-day Iraq and Afghanistan.
Evaluating the Effect of Integrated Health and
Social Care Information Systems on Delayed
Discharging of Patients
The integration between health and social care organisations in the UK is
an acknowledged public policy problem. Despite government efforts at
implementing ‘joined up thinking’, government have found this area
frustratingly ‘policy resistant’. The focus of this paper is to look at the
effect that integrated health and social care information systems can have
on delayed discharging of elderly patients in the UK National Health
Service (NHS) and Social Services. A case study approach has been.
applied of the elderly care wards from hospitals at two NHS trusts and a
social services department. System dynamics and Soft Systems
Methodology are used to test the proposition that information systems
can achieve a significant improvement in reducing delayed discharges.
The lusions are that these methodologies provide a sound test bed
for the proposition and that integrated information systems can be useful.
However, only if they stimulate action when there is limited health and
social care capacity present. Integrated information systems should be
used by managers to inform them of the capacity changes that need to be
made throughout the patient process, helping to ensure there is a greater
response and action in reducing delayed discharges.
Towards the use of model structure analysis for
designing flexible learning itineraries
Some large system dynamics models drive simulator interfaces used for
teaching; this is the case of the MacroLab model. Such a model may be
useful for making students with basic instruction in system dynamics
explore the economy as a dynamic system, allowing for diverse inquiry
itineraries. The question is if different exploration itineraries yield
sufficiently similar learning outcomes. This has been tried with ten
student groups. The results are encouraging, but also indicate that the
inquiry scenario design should be based on systematic analysis of the
model's structure: some variables may not be reachable from
everywhere. An ad-hoc structure exploration found such isolated areas.
The use of a reachability matrix is suggested and an initial example is
shown. Also, students need systematic guidance in constructing a loop
102 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl
Universidad de Talca
FACE
Avenida Lircay s/n
Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de
University of St. Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
9000 St Gallen
Switzerland
William Schoenberg
wasbridge@ gmail.com
University of Bergen / Forio Business
797 Bush Street Apt 407
San Francisco CA 94108
USA
David Schoenwald
daschoe@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
1515 Eubank Blvd SE M/S 0370
Albuquerque NM 87123
USA
set that will frame their exploration. Concluding, it is argued that this
kind of instructional design may bring other large system dynamics
models closer to instructional use.
What's in a mental model of a dynamic system?
On the conceptual structure and approaches to
model comparison
This paper deals with the representation of mental models of dynamic
systems (MMDS). The notion of mental model (MM) has always been
fundamental in system dynamics, and 10 years ago, a specific definition
was introduced. However, no conceptual model of MMDS content has
been offered so far. Two assessment and comparison methods have been
borrowed from general MM research:. Are these methods are equivalent
in procedure and results, and do they satisfy specific needs of system
dynamics? Two exemplary MMDAs are compared with both of the
methods, which are found to be different in procedure and in results they
produce. In addition, they ignore the feedback loop concept. Based on
this finding, we propose a conceptual model for the structure of MMDS,
a method for comparing MMDSs and a tentative revised definition of
MMDS. The application to the exemplary models shows some alleged
] is that more di and
A
comparative work are needed.
The Effectiveness of Force Directed Graphs vs.
Causal Loop Diagrams: An experimental study
When it comes to making tough decisions in dynamic environments,
decision makers usually do not make the optimal choices (Moxnes,
2004). In order to help decision makers understand the consequences of
their decisions modelers usually reveal the structure of their models
through Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD). Here I have run a small pilot
experiment comparing an alternative method of model structure, model
behavior visualization called Force Directed Graphs (FDG) in an attempt
to determine which is the more effective aid to decision makers.
Participants in this study were asked to make decisions in a dynamic
system, and were given either a CLD of the underlying model, ora FDG
as an aid. The results of this study were inconclusive as to which was
more effective, but it appeared that FDG users had better strategy, but
were on the whole unable to translate that into optimal decision making.
This paper also discusses changes to be applied to its experimental
design before this study can be run in full.
A System Dynamics Perspective on Insurgency
as a Business Enterprise
A system dynamics model is developed to describe how insurgency
groups pursue funding for their operations and the choices they make in
how they allocate these funds to maintain their operations and advance
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 103
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Curtis Johnson
cjohnso@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1235
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA
Leonard A. Malczynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Mail Stop 0735
Albuquerque NM 87123-1350
USA
George A. Backus
gabacku@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
ad NM 87185-0370
Jennifer Schurer
jschurer@ wustl.edu
Washington University in St Louis
Brown School of Social Work
Campus Box 1196 One Brookings Drive
St Louis MO 63130-4899
USA
Peter S. Hovmand
phovmand@ wustl.edu
Washington University in St Louis
George Warren Brown School of Social Work
One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
Saint Louis MO 63130
USA
Maria Cristina Serrano
mserrano@ unab.edu.co
Universidad Autonoma de Bucaramanga
10300 Golf Course Rd NW Apt 1416
Albuquerque NM 87114
USA
Ricardo Sotaquira
rsotaquira@ gmail.com
Universidad de la Sabana
Facultad de Ingeniera
Chia Cundinamarca
Colombia
their causes. The model illustrates that the insurgent groups, under
survival pressure, will seek necessary resources to continue their
operations by any means necessary regardless of ideology or higher
goals. This self-p1 vation hypothesis is predicated on evidence-based
counter-insurgency research. The model focuses on four primary
activities of the insurgency: force maintenance, public relations,
commission of violent acts, and community outreach. The model shows
how decisions to re-allocate resources among these four activities,
affects the overall financial well-being of the insurgency. Indeed, the
model can be used to determine the pressure points of an insurgency
which may provide insight in how to financially damage such an
organization.
The Role of Proactive Strategic Planning in
Punctuated Organizational Change: Revisiting
Sastry's Model
Sastry's (1997) simulation model of Tushman and Romanelli' 'S (1985)
classic theory of or il change
underlying causal theory and yielded several important ae
regarding executive management's role in monitoring the strategic fit
with the environment and allowing for a trial period directly after
reorientation. However, Sastry's model focuses exclusively on reactive
strategic reorientations triggered by sustained poor performance due to
- environment leaving no room for proactive
strategic shifts in response to anticipated events. The extremely common
process of strategic planning is geared toward just this type of change;
routine planning attempts to manage uncertainty, anticipate future
demands, and make targeted strategic changes before performance
deficits make radical reorientation necessary. This paper explores the
impact of adding a strategic planning routine to Sastry's model on
organizational performance and change.
The role of System Dynamic Simulations in
Higher Education Management, a Systemic View
Under the assumption that there is a variety of meanings and purposes
behind the use of System Dynamics in higher education management,
this paper compiles a review and a systemic interpretation that will
examine such variety. The Systems thinking research group (GPS), at the
Universidad Autonoma de Bucaramanga, has developed a variety of
projects which main purpose was to use System Dynamics modelling to
support University management. A detailed revision of these projects, as
well as other research documents developed by authors from the
international community interested in this topic, is presented to
104 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Maria Sipowicz
maria sipowicz@ eifer.org
EIFER
Emmy-Noether-Strasse 11
D-76131 Karlsruhe
Germany
Heather Skaza
hjskaza@ hotmail.com
University of Nevada-Las Vegas
Environmental Studies
4504 S Maryland Parkway Box 454030
Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA
Krystyna A. Stave
krystyna.stave@ unlv.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway
Box 454030
Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA
Valerijs Skribans
skriban@ inbox.lv
Riga Technical University
Meza iela 1/7
Riga LV 1048
Latvia
common objectives, ies and learning
experiences. This revision provides the fundamentals that allow the
identification of a variety of uses of System Dynamics in higher
education to create a systemic perspective from which it is possible to
discuss and reflect organizational complexities beyond mere
management strategies and business projections in the University
management field.
The software life cycle spiral model: the dynamic
approach
The process of developement of IT system is a set of activities and
results connected with it, which lead to formation of the system. This
process can be implemented in a variety of different ways. The
abstractions of the course of creating an IT system are known as the
manufacturing process model or software life cycle model. The spiral
model, which is the subject hereof, as well as other existing models, have
been developed on the basis of many years of experience of designers
and programmers. The main goal of the models is indication of the
sequence of steps crucial for the correct realisation of an IT project.
However, they do not encompass the dynamics of the process and
interaction between various factors connected with them, which include:
human, time, economic and quality factors. The following article
attempts to present the spiral model of software life cycle in the dynamic
approach, on example of an ongoing project of a regional energy
planning support system.
A test of the relative effectiveness of using
systems simulations to increase student
understanding of environmental issues
This paper reports on an experimental study testing the relative effect of
using simulation models on systems thinking in a college-level
Introduction to Environmental Science class. The preliminary findings
show mixed results. It is unclear whether this is a result on the systems
simulations used in the interventions or the assessment techniques
employed to study their effectiveness.
Influence Of Labor Migration On Latvia's
Labor Market
This paper shows system dynamic model of labor market and labor
migration in Latvia. The hypothesis of the research is that: labor
migration is determined primarily by the payment level in the countries
under consideration and indicator derived from it - payment difference
in compared countries; also employment level, unemployment level,
number of work places (market capacity) and number of vacant work
places. Secondary factors influencing migration may be costs connected
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 105
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Jill H. Slinger
j.h.slinger@ tbm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5
2628 BX Delft
Netherlands
Sanjay Soni
soni563@ yahoo.com
Jabalpur Engineering College
M. Dolores Soto-Torres
lolasoto@ eco.uva.es
Universidad de Valladolid
Dpto Economia Aplicada
Avenida Valle Esgueva 6
47011 Valladolid Spain
Ramon Fernandez-Lechon
ramonfer@ eco.uva.es
Universidad de Valladolid
Facultad de Ciencias Economicas
Avda Valle Esgueva 6
47011 Valladolid Spain
with labor migration, formal legal barriers of migration and personal
propensity to migrate. Statistics on the Latvia's labor market are not
complete; there is also no common view of experts about determinant
In such circ ing of market with quantitative
methods is problematic. One approach is to simulate indicators and to
estimate their influence on national economy. The model has three parts:
labor force expansion, allocation and migration sub models. Labor force
expansion sub model is based on allocation of population in various
categories during transition to a working age population. Allocation by
level of educational is further used in labor markets analysis, where,
according to the education level, worker groups are formed. Mutual
interaction of groups of workers together with labor migration is
represented in paper. In results is shown model factors sensitivity from
personal propensity to labor migration.
Communicating model insights using interactive
learning environments
Much attention is focused on the rational-style development and
application of System Dynamics models. Even group model building
focuses primarily on the formulation and understanding of the model by
the group members themselves. There is a dearth of attention for
communication of the insights derived during the model building process
to those peripherally or (un)involved in this process. In this study, the
multi-actor context of model implementation is addressed explicitly. The
feedback loop connecting model-derived insights and results back to the
problem owners, the client and stake-holders, is explored. A number of
principles for use in the communication of models are derived and the
role of interactive learning envi as a tool in icating
model results and insights in such a multi-actor context is discussed.
Policy Planning to Improve Quality of Technical
Education - A System dynamic A pproach
In the present paper an attempt has been made to link various elements
that affect the quality of technical education in the present era. A System
Dynamic approach has been used to study the technical education system
and a conclusion is drawn with the help of model by simulating it in
powersim and the model is validated with hypothesis formed.
Dynamics in domestic terrorist organizations
The number of incidents provoked by a domestic terrorist organization
shows an oscillatory though irregular behaviour over time. There are
periods of time where the organization carries out many incidents
whereas during other periods, the activity diminishes or even is null.
This paper attempts to explain the reasons of that behaviour considering
a causal structure that picks up the interrelations between the actions of
the organization and the government of the country where the
organization focus mainly its activities. While the terrorist organization
controls positive feedback loops, the governmental policies implemented
to fight against it are led by negative feedback loops fraught with
106 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Pedro Fernandez Soto
pedro.fernandez.soto@ es.pwc.com
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Paseo de la Castellana 43
28046 Madrid Spain
Krystyna A. Stave
krystyna.stave@ unlv.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway
Box 454030
Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA
Marcia Turner
marciaturner@ nevada.edu
Nevada System of Higher Education
5550 W Flamingo Rd Suite C-1
Las Vegas NV 89103
USA
John Sterman
jsterman@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142
USA
uncertainty. The dynamic emerging from the interrelations between the
positive and the negative feedback loops would explain the evolution of
the number of attacks carried by the organization. In order to check the
strength of the causal structure a simulation exercise is proposed to
characterize the number of incidents of a specific organization during a
concrete temporal horizon. The aim is to check the degree of fit between
the real data and those obtained by simulation, which includes specific
features of the organization to study.
Experimental C omparison of System Dynamics
versus Traditional Facilitation
This paper reports on an experiment comparing the relative effectiveness
of standard group facilitation techniques with system dynamics
facilitation techniques in a real world stakeholder participation process.
The experiment tested the hypothesis that the system dynamics approach
would lead to: (1) better decisions; (2) greater participant focus on
relevant materials; and (3) higher procedural satisfaction. The system
dynamics approach yielded better decisions but lower procedural
satisfaction among participants.
Does formal system dynamics training improve
people's understanding of accumulation?
Prior work shows widespread misunderstanding of the principles of
accumulation (stocks and flows), even among highly educated adults
trained in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics. People
fail to grasp that the quantity of any stock rises (falls) when the inflow
exceeds (is less than) the outflow. Rather, people often use the
correlation heuristic, concluding that a system's output is positively
correlated with its inputs. Here I ask whether formal system dynamics
training is effective in overcoming people's poor understanding of
accumulation. I report an experiment with graduate students at the MIT
Sloan School of Management to assess the impact of an introductory
system dynamics course on their intuitive understanding of
ac ion. I use a pretest: posttest design, where the
treatment consisted of the standard course content. Results show
improvement in overall performance and a reduction in the prevalence of
the correlation heuristic. Even relatively modest exposure to stocks and
flows improves intuitive understanding of these concepts, at least among
these highly educated adults. However, there is still evidence of
correlational reasoning among a minority of students. I suggest
additional experiments to deepen our knowledge of the education and
training required to develop people's intuitive understanding of
accumulation.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 107
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Eric Stiens
estiens@ gmail.com
Washington University in St. Louis
3022A Cherokee Street
St Louis MO 63118
USA
Margaret V. Stringfellow
sapphire@ mitedu
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Dept of Aeronautics and Astronautics
77 Massachusetts Ave 33-407c
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
Meghan M. Dierks
mdierks@ bidme.harvard.edu
Harvard Medical School
Division of Clinical Informatics
330 Brookline Ave W/PA617
Boston MA 02215
Structural Racism and System Dynamics: A
Theory and Methodology for Addressing Racial
Disparities
Understanding how interactions between apparently race-neutral
institutions and policies can produce racial disparities is essential to a
Civil Rights Movement in the United States in the 21st Century. Moving
from a discourse that focuses on intent as the determining factor in
whether racism exists to a discourse that focuses on the existence of
racial disparities and the structures that reproduce them requires a new
language and vocabulary. Conc i and izing effective
interventions that will reduce these disparities requires a new
methodology. System dynamics can play a key role in providing botha
language and a methodology to better und d the c
presence of racial disparities across nearly every indicator of wellbeing.
Most attempts to reduce racial di ities have met with
policy resistance, and modeling work must focus on identifying key
leverage points. In this mostly qualitative work, causal-loop diagrams are
pulled from relevant research and key reference modes are examined for
insights into the structures perpetuating racial hierarchy. A dynamic
hypothesis is proposed that the stock of A frican-A mericans living in
areas of concentrated poverty is one of the key drivers of racial
disparities. Suggestions and opportunities for further modeling and next
steps are also outlined.
Healthcare Industry Incentive Structures
Pressure System Operators to Operate in a
High-risk State
The operation of hospitals in a low-risk state has become more a more
challenging goal to meet as cost-of-care increases have forced hospitals
to find alternative revenue sources. In particular, hospitals have
compensated for increasing costs by expanding their ad hoc patient
referral base and overloading their operation schedules without a
corresponding increase in resources to treat the increased patient load.
Without adequate resources to treat patients, proceduralists respond to
throughput pressure by speeding up the pace of cases, thereby exposing
the patient to greatly increased risk of an adverse event. The subsequent
treatment of adverse events caused increases the cost-of-care as hospitals
Dill related treatment to insurance companies. Recent changes by third-
party payers to the hospital rei: policy have to
address this issue by denying coverage of adverse event treatment. The
policy is examined along with alternative solutions that seek to align the
incentives of insurance companies, hospitals and surgeons in an effort to
decrease the cost of care and encouraging the low-risk operation of
hospitals.
108 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Jiirgen Strohhecker
j.strohhecker@ frankfurt-school.de
Frankfurt School of Finance and Mgt
Sonnemannstrasse 9-11
D-60314 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Dan Sturtevant
dsturtev@ mit.edu
MIT
231 Norfolk Street #6
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
J. Bradley Morrison
bmorriso@ brandeis.edu
Brandeis University
19 Fox Run Road
Bedford MA 01730
USA
Does a Better Understanding of Accumulation
Indeed Predict A Higher Performance in Stock
and Flow Management?
The stock and flow management (SFM) problem is of high relevance for
a broad range of decision makers in society, business and personal
affairs. Although in some areas highly sophisticated models and control
concepts have been developed, the phenomena of excess stock and
are One recent explanation for these observations
is offered by a stream of research, which finds evidence for widespread
and persistent deficits in stock-flow thinking (SFT) capabilities even
among well-educated adults. Building on this explanation, an attempt is
made to test the hypothesis, that the better people understand
accumulation, the higher will be their performance in SFM tasks. The
results ofa small sample pilot study indicate that the hypothesis of a one-
d-effect relationship between SFT and SFM
performance ‘ras to be rejected. Therefore, Ackerman’s PPIK theory is
introduced and used to formulate an elaborate causal model, which could
be tested in future research.
America Disrupted: Dynamics of the Technical
Capability Crisis
This study investigates the cause of a nearly twenty-five year decline in
the percentage of U.S. born undergraduates earning engineering degrees.
This dramatic decline has occurred despite incredibly high pay and low
unemployment among engineers. On the surface this situation appears to
violate the laws of supply and demand. A system dynamics model was
created to represent the institutional forces and feedback loops present in
the real-world system. This model internally represents the economic
forces goveming the choice to pursue science, technology, engineering,
and matt ics (STEM) edi di hing features of
quantitative knowledge that constrain its transmission, and factors
determining the quality of STEM education in our schools. It is shown
that high industry pay for STEM workers and low pay for STEM
teachers can cause long-term self perpetuating labor shortages. The fact
that mathematics performance has strong dependencies on past-
knowledge exacerbates the situation. Policy proposals are simulated to
test their ability to positively influence the system. The model is shown
to exhibit tipping point behavior. Small reforms will have negligible
impact while significant reforms could make the system move into a
fundamentally better pattern of behavior, but only after considerable
delays.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 109
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Athor Subroto
athor.subroto@ ui.ac.id
University of Indonesia
Department of Management Science
Enzo Bivona
enzo.bivona@ unipa.it
University of Palermo
Via Mazzini 59
90139 Palermo
Ttaly
Finn Olav Sveen
finn.olav.sveen@ gmail.com
University of Agder
Postsvingen 5A
3031 Drammen
Norway
Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegi@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia
Spain
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ uia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway
Finn Olav Sveen
finn.olay.sveen@ gmail.com
University of Agder
Postsvingen 5A
3031 Drammen Norway
Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegi@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia Spain
Supporting Small Medium Enterprises planning
through the use of a step-by-step System
Dynamics model building process
This paper aims to support small medium enterprises (SMEs) in business
planning through the use of system dynamics models. In particular, it has
been hypothesized that through the use of a step-by-step system
dynamics model building process SMEs’ entrepreneurs can better
d d the net of c d-effect relationships underlying company
financial and non-financial results. Such an approach also enables
decision makers to improve their understanding about the figures
portrayed in a balance sheet. In order to reach such a goal, this study has
been carried out through the use of a case-study. The small company
investigated is a leather handcraft operating in Indonesia. The paper
makes explicit main feedback mechanisms underlying company
customer base dynamics adoption process, production and inventory
management policies, human resource management practice and
machineries production capacity acquisition policy.
Using C onceptual System Dynamics Simulation
Models to Initiate Exploration of and Discussion
about Incident Reporting Systems
Ongoing research collaboration between Tecnun, University of A gder,
Gjovik University College and mnemonic AS (a Managed Security
Services provider), investigates how to improve the operation of
information security incident reporting systems. A large part of the
research effort is collaborative workshops and a significant issue is how
to engage the participants in an objective discussion. We have
successfully employed small System Dynamics computer simulation
models for this purpose. These models leave out many details and make
a number of assumptions that are often wrong. However, that is precisely
why they work so well. When experts are confronted with a “wrong”
model of a system they know very well, they seem to have an urge to
immediately correct the modeler, thus initiating discussion. Used
correctly, these small conceptual models can “kick start” a collaborative
modeling workshop, engaging the participants and immediately
extracting useful information. This paper presents one such model and
our experiences with using it.
The Role of Incident Reporting in Reducing
Information Security Risks
This paper examines the role of information security incident reporting
systems in the wider context of an information security management
system. This work is based on four group model building workshops
with participants from mnemonic AS, a Norwegian Managed Security
Services Provider. We found that incident reporting is a crucial
component in creating information security awareness among
110 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ uia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad Norway
Mats G. Svensson
mats.svensson@ lucsus.lu.se
Lund University
Centre for Sustainability Studies
PO Box 170
S-22100 Lund
Sweden
Hitesh Soneji
hitesh@ sonejifamily.org
Lund University
PO Box 170
SE-221 00 Lund
Sweden
Harald Sverdrup
harald.sverdrup@ chemeng,lth.se
Lund University
Dept of Chemical Engineering Box 124
221 00 Lund
Sweden
Deniz Koca
deniz.koca@ chemeng.lth.se
Lund University
Applied Systems Analysis Group
Box 124 SE-221 00
Lund
Sweden
Hordur V. Haraldsson
hordur.haraldsson@ naturvardsverket.se
Swedish Environmental Protection
Naturvardsverket.
10648 Stockholm
Sweden
Karl Henrik Robért
Karl-Henrik Robert@ thenaturalstep.org
Blekinge Institute of Technology
Karlskrona
Sweden
information system users. Our research indicates that increasing incident
reporting rates does not necessarily mean poor security, but rather that
the organisation is becoming more security aware, and, arguably, less
exposed to information security risks. However, in an organisation with
poor awareness, it is possible that incident reporting rates and risk
increases simultaneously. Analogous results are known about industrial
safety reporting systems and risk of organisational accidents.
Sustainability and System dynamics: some case
studies
While Being Green may be in fashion, sustainability has yet to gain such
traction. Mi ll are prevailing in many
sectors and across ee ranging disciplines. The climate change threat is
just one component of this challenge, together with sustaining global
health and development without jeopardising intergenerational equity.
This paper scrutinizes the concept of sustainability with specific focus on
understanding its system boundary conditions. Case studies are presented
to illustrate the value of a system dynamics view in formulating
sustainability strategies. Each of the cases presented, from metals to
fertilizers and ICT to forestry, offer “unique challenges, yet share
common threads: finite non- losses in
resource loops, and an economic system incapable of managing them
sustainably. Each study reinforces the need for better understanding of
integrated systems for adaptive management, societal learning, and
policies to manage transitions towards a more sustainable society.
On root-causes of unsustainability: phosphate
consumption investigated using systems analysis
and dynamic assessment modelling
The roots of unsustainability on the highest systems level, can only be
determined by looking at the system from a birds perspective. We argue
that real sustainability must be able to span at least 20,000 years to the
inception of the next ice age. We can show that the population size and
the consumption rate per person are both at work to let us collectively
outpace the supply rate of the planet. So far, humans have addressed end
of pipe solution like pollution cleanup, progressed to cleaner production
and efficient resource use. The next level is also being studied and
initiated, less unsustainable consumption rates, better efficiencies and
closing of cycles. However, these are still at the systems level below the
real root causes. The models predict that the available minable resources
will finally run out 1300 years from now. After that only phosphorus
gained from agricultural capture will be available. For scenarios leading
to populations in the size range of 1-2 billion people on earth, the general
supply situation will be much improved. The shortage of phosphorus
may have food shortage as a result, leading to predicted significant social
stresses, potentially leading to conflict. Key words, sustainable
reserves, ion, social
sustainability.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 111
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Mihaela Tabacaru
mihaela.tabacaru@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Gyldenprisveien 18 - 2
5056 Bergen
Norway
Birgit Kopainsky
birgit.kopainsky@ flury-giuliani.ch
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
PO Box 7800
N-5020 Bergen
Norway
Agata Sawicka
agata.sawicka@ npt.no
University of Agder
Grooseveien 36
NO-4876 Grimstad
Norway
Krystyna A. Stave
laystyna.stave@ unlv.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway
Box 454030
Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA
Burcu Tan
burcu.tan@ phd.mccombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas at Austin
McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Sta B6000
Austin TX 78712-0201 USA
Edward G. Anderson
edward.anderson@ mecombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas
McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Station B6500
Austin TX 78712 USA
James Dyer
Jim.Dyer@ mccombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas
McCombs Business School
1 University STA B6000
Austin TX 78712-0201 USA
Geoffrey Parker
gparker@ tulane.edu
Tulane University
Entergy Tulane Energy Institute
9 McAlister Dr
New Orleans LA 70118 USA
How can we assess whether our simulation
models improve the system understanding for
the ones interacting with them?
Most of the system dynamics studies that evaluate decision making in
complex dynamic task focus on the evaluation of performance over
repeated trials and on the effectiveness of different instructional
strategies as far as performance is concerned. Especially when a strategy
seems to yield promising results in terms of performance, it becomes
essential to know whether improved performance is due to improved
system understanding, i.e. to correct rules or due to other rea-sons such
as trial and error. This paper contributes to the emerging literature in
system dynamics about assessing system understanding. Based on the
way experts make decisions we develop a step by step guide to evaluate
how the understanding of the system develops in the course of subjects
interacting with the system through a simulation model. We apply our
guide to the rein-deer management task and analyze data from previous
experiments with the task. This applica-tion provides important insights
for the further development of the questionnaires that are ap-plied for
assessing understanding.
Using Binomial Decision Trees and Real Options
Theory to Evaluate System Dynamics Models of
Risky Projects
Many important risky projects are characterized by stochastic processes
embedded in non-linear, feedback structures with delays. System
dynamics models may be used to estimate the cash flow resulting from
these projects. If these projects include managerial flexibility (real
options), a correct financial evaluation of these cash flow requires the
use of real options methodology. We adapt prior work on real options
valuation in the decision analysis literature to develop a methodology
that avoids the need to estimate a risk-adjusted discount rate for the
project with options. We illustrate this approach with a model drawn
from the wind power industry, which is characterized by numerous
uncertainties and high managerial flexibility. We conclude with a
discussion comparing this methodology to the previous methods and
describe under what conditions each one might be a more appropriate
choice.
112 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Masoud Tavazoei
masood_tavazoei@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Tran
Shirin Vakilian
shirin_vakilian1 988@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Iran
Javaneh Mohseni
javaneh_mhi@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Iran
Amin Aghajani
a_aghajooni@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Iran
Timothy R. B. Taylor
xftu@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
Zachry Department of Civil Engineering
709E CE/TTI Tower
College Station TX 77843-3136
USA
David N. Ford
davidford@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
Dept Civil Engineering Mailstop 3136
College Station TX 77843-3136
USA
Shari Y von-Lewis
syvon-lewis@ ocean.tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
Department of Oceanography
College Station TX 77843-3146
USA
Eric Lindquist
Texas A&M
George Bush Sch of Govt & Pub Policy
Inst for Science Tech & Pub Policy
College Station TX 77843-3136
USA
Investigation of depression among university
students: A Case Study of Sharif University of
Technology
Lately, students' depression has become a great concem among
prominent universities. Increase in severe psychological problems
(Kitzrow, 2003) has compelled these universities to think of an effective
policy to improve the deteriorating conditions. Inspecting the students'
lifestyle in eminent universities such as M.I.T, Michigan, Cambridge and
Sharif University of Technology (which is considered as the best
university in Iran and has found international fame) manifested
noticeable similarities in causes of students' depression among aforesaid
universities. In this paper, we have investigated the students' lifestyle at
Sharif University of Technology as a case study, using a System
Dynamics approach. Also, depression as a vague and intuitive concept is
defined clearly in terms of explicit variables using "Alderfer's ERG
Theory" and the dynamic behavior of the students, is carefully modeled
within last 20 years. At the end we have come to conclusion that teachers
can play a significant role in improving the conditions by choosing the
apt evaluation policy.
Science, engineering, and technology in the
policy process for natural systems
Natural systems and society share a symbiotic relationship with each
affecting the health and welfare of the other. More importantly, society’s
impacts on natural systems can lead to negative side effects on society
such as increased respiratory illness from air pollution, contaminated
drinking water from industrial runoff, and increased skin cancer risk
from stratospheric ozone depletion. Mitigating the risks of these side
effects often requires the development and implementation of public
policy. But policy makers may have a limited understanding of complex
natural and societal systems and their interactions. Scientists and
engineers can help policy makers by offering their knowledge of these
systems as well as technological solutions to mitigate the impacts of
societal behavior. However, the expertise of scientists and engineers may
not be fully utilized by policy makers for many reasons including
scientists and engineers inability to provide the appropriate knowledge,
scientists and engineers inability to effectively communicate with policy
makers, or policy makers inability to incorporate scientific and
engineering knowledge into policy development. The current work
develops improved understanding of the interaction of scientists,
engineers, and policy makers in the policy process for natural systems.
This understanding is developed by constructing, testing, and analyzing a
system dynamics model of stratospheric ozone depletion.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 113
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Pard Teekasap
art_eecu@ yahoo.com
Southem New Hampshire University
95 W Clarke St #27
Manchester NH 03104
USA
Nasim Tehrani
nasim.tehrani@ gmail.com
Tehran University
Kargar St
Tehran
Iran
Hamed Shakouri
hshakouri@ gmail.com
Tehran University
Research Institute for Energy Mgt
No 13 Gods Street Enghelab Ave
Tehran
Iran
Mohammad Hossein Taheri
taheri@ teyf.ir
Tehran University
Kargar Shomali St
PO Box 14395-515
Tehran
Tran
Warren W. Tignor
wtignor@ ieee.org
SAIC
472 Comwall Court
Sevema Park MD 21146
Kostas Triantis
triantis@ viedu
Virginia Tech
Grado Dept of Industrial Engineering
7054 Haycock Road
Falls Church VA 22043-2311
Cluster Formation and G overnment Policy:
System Dynamics A pproach
This paper studies the effect of particular government policies on a
cluster formation using a system dynamics modeling approach. A
conceptual cluster dynamic model includes the interaction of the cluster
with resources, workers, jobs, unemployment, salary, market demand,
and production capacity. The considered government policies are raising
the cluster’s attractiveness, lowering the failure rate of new firms and
enlarging the amount of resources. The results show that the cluster will
be developed faster and grown larger if the cluster is attractive and/or
when the failure rate of new firms is low. Increase in resources also
enlarges the cluster but it takes a longer time to develop.
A simple model to study the MNP impact on
dynamic behavior of a two-competitor mobile
market: Stability versus Oscillations
The mobile market in Iran is experimenting a transition period from
monopoly by the incumbent service provider to a relatively competitive
market by introducing the third operator. This paper describes the result
of a research conceming the dynamisms of helping the chum in the
mobile network by the Number Portability service. The feature adds to
the attractiveness of the whole market and potentially stimulates the
players to increase their individual attractiveness by either increasing
their service quality or reducing prices or both. This dynamism is
illustrated by a causal diagram, and a flow diagram has been constructed.
The simple proposed model suffices to explore the consequences of
different scenarios provided by the policy makers, and helps developing
suitable policies to launch this new service. It is shown that improper
settings for the service, including the costs, the time to port and the
flexibility of porting can cause undamped oscillations in the system.
Agile Project Management
Agile Project Management reviews literature of the agile software
development domain relevant to System Dynamics.
Systems Engineering: Have we lost our
Competitive Edge? A Consideration of the
Dynamics of Systems Engineering Projects
Recent media reports include several large systems engineering failures.
These failures are especially alarming given that they span different
114 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Hazhir Rahmandad
hazhir@ vtedu
Virginia Tech
Norther Virginia Center Rm 430
7054 Haycock Road
Falls Church VA 22043
Warren Vaneman
wvaneman@ verizon.net
Virginia Tech
7054 Haycock Road
Falls Church VA 22043
USA
Fiona Penlope Tulinayo
F.Tulinayo@ science.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Faculty of Science
Heyendaalseweg 135
6525 AJ Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Andreas Gro8ler
agroe@ gmx.de
Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Postbus 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Stijn Hoppenbrouwers
stijnh@ cs.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Computer Science Dept - Fac of Science
Heijendaalseweg 135 PO Box 9020
6500 GL Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Patrick van Bommel
pvb@ cs.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Faculty of Science
Heijendaalseweg 135 PO Box 9020
6525 GL Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Mauricio Uriona Maldonado
mauricio.uriona@ gmail.com
Federal University of Santa Catarina
Rua JP Duarte Silva 094 Apt 405
CEP 88037-000 Florianopolis SC
Brazil
sectors (i.e., shipbuilding and space systems), and are not isolated to one
firm. Therefore we need to ask: Have we lost our systems engineering
competitive edge? What can the systems engineering discipline do to
correct the apparent discrepancies that appear to be at the root cause of
these failures? A sy ic framework that current system
engineering practices and integrates different factors that impact its
performance into a unified view is not currently available. We introduce
some of the key concepts of this integrative framework by borrowing
from the management and system dynamics literature. This framework
facilitates the modeling of the systems engineering process for the
purpose of und and ially improving its
performance. Our framework brings together the basic mechanics (e.g.,
task completion, testing, scheduling, and costing) and the human
elements (e.g., skills, incentives, and employee tumover) inherent in
system engineering projects. We highlight major feedback processes
crossing multiple stages of the process and leading to cost and budget
overruns. We demonstrate how this framework can organize and connect
multiple sources of failure in the systems engineering process.
Complementing System Dynamics with O bject-
Role Modeling
In this paper we use Object-Role Modeling (ORM) to complement
System Dynamics (SD). The art of SD modeling lies in discovering and
representing feedback processes and other elements that determine the
dynamics of the system. However, SD shows a lack of instruments for
discovering and expressing precise, language-based concepts in domains.
At the same time, the field of conceptual modeling has long since
focused on deriving models from natural expressions. We therefore tum.
to ORM as a prime example to integrate a strong natural language based
conceptual modeling approach into the creation of SD models. ORM isa
formal fact- oriented approach for modeling information at a conceptual
level. In this study we investigate the ee building blocks of these
methods using of the two
methods helps us to better understand thelr underlying concepts and their
differences in update behavior due to state and decision changes. We use
SD to capture the dynamic, and ORM to capture the static aspect of a
system.
Modeling Knowledge Reuse in Technical
Support Operations
There is an increasing concem on the part of corporate sector of the
importance to harness knowledge as their most valuable resource. The
purpose of this work is to identify the effects of knowledge reuse in
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 115
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Adriano Coser
coser@ ege.ufsc.br
Federal University of Santa Catarina
Bairro Trindade
Florianopolis SC CEP 88040-970
Brazil
Gregorio Varvakis
grego@ deps.ufsc.br
Federal University of Santa Catarina
Bairro Trindade
Florianopolis SC CEP 88040-970
Brazil
Marjan van den Belt
vandenBeltM@ landcareresearch.co.nz
New Zealand Centre for Ecological Econ
c/ Landcare Research
Private Bag 11-052
Palmerston North 4442
New Zealand
Kim van Oorschot
ke.v.oorschot@ tue.nl
Eindhoven University of Technology
PO Box 513, Pav. M0.06, 5600 MB
Eindhoven
The Netherlands
Kishore Sengupta
kishore. sengupta@ insead.edu
INSEAD
Europe Campus
Boulevard de Constance
77305 Fontainebleau
France
Luk van Wassenhove
INSEAD
Europe Campus
Boulevard de Constance
77305 Fontainebleau
France
service systems. In order to achieve this, a system dynamics model of a
software-house's technical support service in Brazil is developed,
emphasizing on the use of knowledge bases and its effects over the
service system. It concludes that i) the model aids the designer in
evaluating several aspects of the system as well as its performance,
including the effects of knowledge reuse and ii) based on the simulation
results, knowledge management enhances service system performance.
Multi-scale Integrated Modelling for Sustainable
Adaptive Systems
This paper presents a theoretical expansion of the 3-step modelling
approach (Costanza & Ruth, 1998), which proposes an incremental
progress from “scoping “models to “research” and “management”
models. The trade off for increased detail and resolution in model
building is a decrease in transparency. This paper aims to provide a
context for Mediated Modelling (which happens at the “scoping” level)
and similar system dynamics based participatory modelling approaches,
as a missing link toward Adaptive Management. An emphasis is placed
on reflective capacity among relevant stakeholders to evaluate the
behaviour of systems at various scales and integrated dimensions. A
theoretical Multi-Scale Integrated Modelling for Sustainable Adaptive
Systems (MIMSAS) framework is discussed as a foundation for three, 6-
year research programmes on (1) urban systems, (2) energy systems and
(3) watershed and coastal ecosystem services.
Dynamics of Agile Software Development
Software projects have traditionally been problematic in terms of quality,
cost and time. Researchers and practitioners have focused on agile
software development as an alternative to overcome these problems.
Agile methods employ iterative development cycles (typically 20
working-days), interspersed by user feedback. The key to agile projects
is the sense of urgency created by the need to deliver at regular intervals.
This paper examines this construct, i.e., schedule pressure. We
investigate the relationship between the level of agility (length of the
iterative cycle) and project outcomes. We argue that project outcomes
may suffer either from a team being too inactive, e.g., in sequential or
low levels of agility, or from a team being over-active over too long, a
situation likely to occur in high levels of agility. We hypothesize that
moderate levels of agility are likely to result in the best project
outcomes. We test our hypothesis through simulation, and find a U-
shaped pattern: performance is better when iteration lengths are 50
working-days, as opposed to 20 working-day cycles widely used in
practice. Our analysis provides both theoretical insights into the
dynamics of agile software development and practical suggestions for
managing these projects.
116 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Bob Walrave
b.walrave@ tue.nl
Eindhoven University of Technology
Den Dolech 2
PO Box 513 Pav M 16
5600 MB Eindhoven
The Netherlands
Kim van Oorschot
ke.v.oorschot@ tue.nl
Eindhoven University of Technology
PO Box 513, Pav. M0.06, 5600 MB
Eindhoven
The Netherlands
Georges Romme
a.g.lromme@ tue.nl
Eindhoven University of Technology
Department of IE & IS
PO Box 513
5600 MB Eindhoven
The Netherlands
Hsiao-Lin Wang
whl1435@ hotmail.com
Chaoyang University of Technology
Department of Landscape Architecture
PO Box 30-1177
Taichung 40760
Taiwan
Yufeng Ho
hyfarch@ ms32.hinet.net
Chaoyang University of Technology
PO Box 30-117
Taichung 407
Taiwan
Yi-Yen Wu
yiyenwu@ gmail.com
Chaoyang University of Technology
168 Jifong E Rd
Wufong Township
Taiwan
The rise and fall of product innovation strategy:
a simulation model
The benefits of a strategically balanced product portfolio, as a key driver
of long-term business success, are well documented. In this respect,
many firms have been unable to achieve a balanced product portfolio.
An important cause is the failure to develop dynamic capabilities, that is,
the capabilities to reconfigure intemal and external competences to
address dynamic business envi In times of env
instability and financial decay, top managers are facing difficulties in
adapting their strategy to changes in market and competitive conditions.
Firms can thus become seriously trapped in a reinforcing negative loop,
where the changing environment is counteracted with inadequate
strategic actions, which in tur results in further decreasing financial
performance. This so-called suppression mechanism serves to explain
why so many firms fail at building dynamic capabilities. We draw on
system dynamics modeling to build and simulate a model of the causes,
consequences, and potential solutions of the suppression mechanism.
This model is derived from the literature on dynamic capability and,
more broadly, strategy and innovation studies. The main contribution of
this paper to the literature on dynamic capabilities is the definition and
codification of the suppression mechanism.
A Dynamic Simulation Analysis of Urban
Ecotourism in Y angmingshan National Park and
Taipei City
The concept of ecotourism has been promoted by the public in decades,
and it is expected to push local development forward while conserves the
ecological resources. However, the practical process is full of confliction
and c diction, and makes the devel of ecotourism have its
argument. Considering the concept of urban ecotourism is still obscure,
this study introduces the method of Fuzzy number construction, to
construct the index of urban ecotourism. Y angmingshan National Park
and Taipei city are applied to examine the relationship between both of
them through system dynamic method. The result reveals that the
ecotourism destination has not destructed obviously while the tourists
have been increasing in the early period. But if the policy of recreation
carrying capacity has not been built up, the biodiversity will decay soon
while the tourists keep on growing. In addition, the number of urban
tourists is also increasing while urban ecotourism has been ripe, and that
will result more carbon dioxide emissive while economy vigorous. The
ecological green lands could reduce the speed of carbon dioxide
emission. It is clear that urban ecotourism may provide an alternative
choice of urban tourism, and correspond to the direction of ecological
city. Keyword: Urban Ecotourism, Fuzzy number construction, System
Dynamic, Y angmingshan National Park.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 117
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Wei Yang Wang
wyang@ cc.kuas.edu. tw
National Kaohsiung Univ of Applied Sci
415 Chien-Kung Road
807 Kaohsiung
Taiwan
Ya-tsai Tseng
yttseng@ thu.edu.tw
Tunghai University
Dept of Business Administration
407 Taichung
Taiwan
Wei-Tsong Wang
‘wtwang@ mail.ncku.edu.tw
National Cheng Kung University
Industrial and Information Mgt Dept
1 University Road
Tainan 701
Taiwan
Chun-Chieh Wang
judaswa@ gmail.com
National Cheng Kung University
No 1 University Rd Tainan City
Insitute of Information Management
Taiwan ROC
Wenxin Wang
anclino@126,com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
1 Guiyuntang Nanjing
na
Yichun Wang
824254707@ qq.com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
Nanjing
China
Yikang Li
525218205@ qq.com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
Nanjing
China
A SD-Based Reflective Strategy Development
Process
This paper aims to support growth management for firms that have no
stable growth logic. Based on Schns reflective management perspective
(Schn, 1983), we propose an iterative system dynamics-based reflective
strategy development process to facilitate managers to organize and
develop firm growth logic. Different from typical system dynamics
modeling which is based on existing dynamic structures, in this paper, an
iterative system dynamics modeling process is designed to develop
models that evolve with managers ideal designs towards the
implementation of expected growth pattems. An action science research
is conducted with a case to illustrate the iterative SD model-based
growth management process. How the case under discussion enhanced
its understanding of the confronted growth problem and developed its
growth logic to guide the formulation of relevant growth strategies are
clearly described.
A Dynamic Model Of Teacher's Adoption Of E-
learning System By Integration Of Environment
Variables and Teacher Characteristics
In this study we develop a system dynamics model of teachers adoption
of e-learning system. We identify that environment variables and
teachers individual characteristics are the two main factors affecting
teachers adoption. Consequently we integrate well-known technology
acceptance model into our dynamic model. This study also proposes
three policies to enhance teachers adoption. Each policy will be analyzed
individually, and policy comparison will also be performed.
Exercises: The test for the Needham Puzzle
Solutions via Systems thinking
China is a world-renowned ancient civilization, but why was capitalism
and modem science originated in W estem Europe rather than in China?
We studied the commodity economy and natural economic development,
as well as the impact of science and technology, culture (mainly about
Confucian thought), and bureaucracy. Then we made the model of the
situation of the Song Dynasty and work out the productivity curve of the
Chinese feudal dynasty. A fter the process of our study, we learn that the
consolidated centralized feudal dynasties are able to control the whole
country, but its over-centralization has already decided that every
dynasty is bound to eclipse. During the continuous wars, the protection
and development of the productivity seems to be impractical, and so
does the capitalism-it can not attain the suitable environment it lives by.
118 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Wenxin Wang
anclino@ 126.com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
1 Guiyuntang Nanjing China
Maoyan Wan
525848324@ qq.com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
Nanjing China
Yikang Li
525218205@ qg.com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
Nanjing China
Yichun Wang
824254707@ qq.com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
Nanjing China
Lei Zhang
anclino3@ 126.com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
Nanjing China
Stephen W arhoe
s.warhoe@ gmail.com
Washington State Dept of Transport.
928 Cherry Avenue NE
Bainbridge Island WA 98110
USA
Elise A. Weaver
eweaver@ humrro.org
Human Resources Research Organization
5407 36th St N
Arlington VA 22207-1388
USA
Exercises: The Analog Prediction of the
Discharge Process of the Barrier Lake at
Tangjiashang
14:28 on May 12, Tangjiashang Mountain experienced a terrible crack in
the Wenchuan earthquake. A ‘barrier lake’ was formed. The water level
has been rising rapidly. Experts of the Ministry of Water Conservancy
planned to take advantage of the artificial drainage and form a new
watercourse. But we did not know if the water can be ensured to drain at
a higher speed than the intake, otherwise the dam will collapse.
Moreover, when the flow accumulates to an uncontrollable level rapidly,
it may also lead to a calamity of collapse and flood. For such a
complicated, dynamic, developing and volatile task, we can consider a
system thinking method to try to answer these two questions. We studied
water storage capacity, rainwater convergence, discharge flow, water
level, and water erosion. Then we set the starting point of time for May
26 and mun the model. We can draw the conclusion by modeling that the
method of eroding earth by water is applicable.
The Effects of Changed Work on Original Scope
and Rework Using System Thinking
Discreetly identifying the resulting causal effects of change in
construction have been a topic of discussion and debate for several years,
especially those changes that disrupt contractor productivity. Managing
projects consists of a complex and integrated array of decisions, actions,
and communications necessary to complete projects successfully. A
project is a system requiring fully functioni and d
tools and resources, and when any of these aspects are not working
efficiently, problems can and do occur. The purpose of this paper is to
discuss the possibility of identifying and quantifying the synergistic
effects of changes on project performance, and the cause and effect
relationships that are created when change is introduced prior, during
and after work has been executed.
The Role of Influence Operations in a
Counterinsurgency Battle
The aim of this paper is to extend a recent "war of attrition" model for
counteri (Kress & Szechtman, 2008) to include the impact on
war of the use of influence operations for popular support and defections
from the insurgency. The model has the following five sectors: (1)
Competitive Contagion for Popular Support; (2) Recruitment and
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 AlbuquerqueUSA 119
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Christian W eitert
cweitert@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
University of Mannheim
Schloss Industrieseminar
68131 Mannheim
Germany
Peter M. Milling
pmilling@ bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Schwarzwaldstr 103
D-68163 Mannheim
Germany
Chris A. White
whitec@ alcatel-lucent.com
Alcatel-Lucent Bell Labs
Chief Scientists Office
600 Mountain A venue Room 2B-417
Mumay Hill NJ 07974
USA
Defections; (3) Quality of Intelligence; (4) War of Attrition; and (5)
Collateral Damage. Two messaging policies were compared, but the
results of such comparisons will depend heavily on model
parameterization and the formulation of effect functions. Still, a model
such as this one can be used in principle to inform policy development
by making assumptions transparent and by clarifying causal links. For
instance, popular support messaging can reduce the effectiveness of
insurgent fighters and their ability to recruit. Alternatively, defection
messaging can help to recruit defectors and glean intelligence for
targeting that could limit civilian casualties and reduce insurgent
recruitment, thus bringing the war to an earlier close. This effort was
completed, in part, for the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory at
Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (Contract No. FA8650-04-D-6405 TO
25 and TO 33).
Radical innovations from a dynamic capabilities
point of view - A Hybrid-Modeling A pproach to
Generate Pseudo-Empirical Data
Sustained competitive advantage is a major issue in the field of
management research. A growing number of scholars utilize the
Dynamic Capabilities View as a reason for over average performance
and adaptability of a firm, especially to radical innovations that threaten
a firm’s survival. Due to the abstract character of the concept, the nature
and impact of dynamic capabilities is still vague and empirical evidence
is rare, This paper presents a formal simulation model that builds on
previous work on the acc ion of dynamic bilities to explore
the micro foundations of the concept. To generate pseudo empirical data,
a mixed agent based and system dynamics modeling approach is devel-
oped. Judging preliminary results further development of the method
promises to be fruitful to und d of the micro foundations of
dynamic capabilities.
The Simulation of Idea Propagation in
Organizations
The healthy exchange of ideas within an organization leads to faster
problem solving, mitigates short and long term risk, and opens the
possibility for disruptive technological change. We introduce a new tool
(GY RUS) for the simulation and optimization of idea within
an organization. This tool treats the organizational topology, internal
processes, and implements an individual knowledge model to examine
idea ion. The topology both the formal and informal
networks of idea within an i The
include all activities resulting in the exchange or introduction of ideas to
the organization. The knowledge model concems how individuals store
and propagate ideas. We apply this tool to a simple organizational
topology to understand the propagation characteristics of ideas and the
coupling of ideas between entities in the structure.
120 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
J. Chris White
jewhite@ viasimcorp.com
viaSim
519 Interstate 30 #247
Rockwall TX 75087
Margaret Rush
mlr5u@ virginia.edu
University of Virginia
Walter Schaffer
SchaffeW@ od.nih.gov
National Institutes of Health
Johannes Wiik
University of Bergen
Stromgaten 32
5008 Bergen
Norway
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ uia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway
Pal I. Davidsen
pal.davidsen@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6 7th Floor
5020 Bergen
Norway
Klaus-Peter Kossakowski
kpk@ sei.cmu.edu
Software Engineering Institute Europe
Ander Welle 4
60322 Frankfurt
Germany
Workforce Modeling for the National Institutes
of Health (NIH)
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the research community has
been concemed for decades about the increasing periods of training and
the rate of entry of new investigators into its pool of funded Principal
Investigators (PIs). Since 1970, newly trained investigators have
experienced longer periods of training prior to application for NIH
research grant support. Longer periods of training are reflected in the
average age at which investigators receive their first independent
research grant, which has increased from 34.3 to 42.4 over the period
from 1970 to 2006. Because of the concem about sustaining the
enterprise and assuring a continuing supply of new investigators, the
NIH launched a collaboration with viaSim to model the biomedical PI
workforce and to estimate the rate of replenishment necessary to balance
the age of the entire pool and to test policies that could be employed to
encourage reductions in the duration of training. This paper provides an
overview of the model developed for the project, as well as some initial
simulations of policies related to the duration of training and entry of
new investigators. The final section addresses how the NIH-specific
model could be applied to the national STEM workforce.
Persistent Instabilities in the High-priority
Incident Workload of CSIRTs
Since their inception Computer Security Incident Response Teams
(CSIRTs) have been afflicted by chronic problems concerning workload,
quality of service, and ing their i We have
with one of the oldest CSIRTs to model the most challenging i issues.
Low-priority and high-priority incident response cause distinct problems.
Ina previous paper we dealt with the impact of the exponential growth
of low-priority incidents on the CSIRT workload. In this paper we deal
with high-priority incident response and its impact on the CSIRT
workload and quality of service. One observes long-term instabilities in
workload and QoS and, ominously, oscillatory decreasing recognition of
the CSIRT by its i . An improved c of the
service level provided by the CSIRT is the most effective policy to
mitigate long-term instability in the workload and quality of service.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 121
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Johannes Wiik
University of Bergen
Stromgaten 32
5008 Bergen
Norway
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ uia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway
Pal I. Davidsen
pal.davidsen@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6 7th Floor
5020 Bergen
Norway
Klaus-Peter Kossakowski
kpk@ sei.cmu.edu
Software Engineering Institute Europe
Ander Welle 4
60322 Frankfurt
Germany
Johannes Wiik
University of Bergen
Stromgaten 32
5008 Bergen
Norway
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ uia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway
Pal I. Davidsen
pal.davidsen@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6 7th Floor
5020 Bergen
Norway
Klaus-Peter Kossakowski
kpk@ sei.cmu.edu
Software Engineering Institute Europe
Ander Welle 4
60322 Frankfurt
Germany
Chronic Workload Problems in CSIRTs
Since their inception Computer Security Incident Response Teams
(CSIRTs) have been afflicted by chronic problems conceming workload,
quality of service, and sustaining their constituency. We have cooperated
with one of the oldest CSIRTs to model the most challenging issues.
Low-priority and high-priority incident response cause distinct problems.
Low-priority reports grow exponentially, which overwhelms the limited
CISRT resources. For high-priority incident response, one observes
long-term instabilities in workload and QoS and, ominously, oscillatory
decreasing recognition of the CSIRT by its constituency. In this paper
we focus on low-priority incident response, leaving high-priority
response for two companion papers. For low-priority response, the
CSIRT tends to handle the workload by adjusting the productivity of
manually handled incidents, a futile task owing to exponential growth in
incidents. A more fund solution is d incident response,
but its implementation requires careful planning of timing and resources.
Preserving a balanced CSIRT constituency
Since their inception Computer Security Incident Response Teams
(CSIRTs) have been afflicted by chronic problems conceming workload,
QoS and sustaining their constituency. We have cooperated with one of
the oldest CSIRTs to model the most challenging issues. Low- and high-
priority incident response cause different problems. In companion papers
we dealt with the impact of the exponential growth of low-priority
incidents on the CSIRT workload and the effect of high-priority incident
response on the CSIRT workload and QoS. Here, we focus on a severe
consequence of instabilities in high-priority incident response: problems
to retain the internal constituency, i.e, the customer base or community
who by its funding enable the existence of the CSIRT. Such an external
i (people and organizations outside the internal constituency)
that are provided with limited services, is unavoidable and even
desirable, since security incidents often involve sites outside the intemal
constituency. But our model indicates that the instabilities in high-
priority incident reporting create an imbalance that -- if it persists --
could threaten the very existence of the CSIRT. Our model suggests that
a management strategy that reduces the tumover of the most frequent
reporters is much better than any attempt to attract a higher number of
frequent reporters.
122 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Ines Winz
i,winz@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
24/457 Swanson Rd Ranui
Auckland 0612
New Zealand
Gary Brierley
gbrierley@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
School of Geography
Private Bag 92019
Auckland
New Zealand
Ines Winz
i.winz@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
24/457 Swanson Rd Ranui
Auckland 0612
New Zealand
Gary Brierley
gbrierley@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
School of Geography
Private Bag 92019
Auckland
New Zealand
Kaoru Y amaguchi
kaoru3@ muratopia.org
Doshisha University
521 Minamidani Aihara
Goshiki-cho Sumoto Hyogo 656-1325
Japan
Simulating Pollution from Urban Stormwater in
Project Twin Streams Catchment, Auckland,
New Zealand
A system dynamics simulation is presented that models the accumulation
of the urban non-point source pollutant zinc from stormwater run-off
into an estuary in West Auckland, New Zealand. The boundary and
resolution of the model is restricted by available data to a simple
structure containing combined inflows and one stock, with no outflow.
This is a realistic approximation of system behaviour and mirrors results
from other studies in principle. We question the usefulness of such a
simulation in its lack to address any socio-ecological processes and
concems. Qualitative modelling is deemed more useful for systemic
understanding mandated as part of the transition towards sustainable
urban environments.
Mental Models in Urban Stormwater
Management
Environmental problems and solutions are often conceptualised in many
different ways by different stakeholders. In order to address behaviour
change and move towards more sustainable approaches in stormwater
management, there needs to be understanding of and engagement with
these differing perspectives. This case study uses cognitive mapping to
elicit and transparently capture perceptions on stormwater problems and
solution fies in stormwater techniques of 31 diverse
stakeholders of stormwater management in Twin Streams catchment,
Auckland, New Zealand. Three perspectives have been discovered and
are synthesized in causal loop di : CO! ional fixes, low impact
solutions and community development. Analysis confirms that these
perspectives are diverse and potentially conflicting. Moreover, each
perspective has shortcomings in providing solutions that can address
effectively the challenges posed by stormwater. As a result, the
integration of the perspectives in a wider move of all stakeholders
towards a culture of transition is proposed. The implementation of low
impact solutions is essential in addressing existing environmental
degradation and achieving restoration efforts in the short term. In order
to realise inable stormwater however, the long term
focus must be on social learning, behaviour change, the creation of
effective partnerships with local authorities and community ownership.
Logical vs Historical Time in A Price
Adjustment Mechanism
Recent global financial crisis seems to be re-kindling the battle of
economic thoughts which has been dominated by the neoclassical
doctrine as free market fund: lism. This paper first ines the
lassical dation of price ad hanism built on logical
time, using system dynamics modeling. Then it is argued that similar
workings could be done in a real market economy running on historical
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 123
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Min-Ren Yan
aaron@ neter.com.tw
Chinese Culture University
No 213 Sec 2 Jianguo S Rd
Da-an Dist Taipei City 106
Taiwan
Mike Yearworth
mike@ groundedsystems.com
Grounded Systems Ltd
24 Raglan Road
Bristol BS7 8EH
UK
Gonenc Y iicel
g.yucel@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5 Room B-3-280
2628 BX Delft The Netherlands
Cornelia van Daalen
c.vandaalen@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Tech Policy and Mgt
PO Box 5015 2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
time by the interplay of price, inventory and their interdependent
feedback relations. This implies that off-equilibrium analysis built on
historical time without neoclassical concept of auctioneer is a better way
of representing market activities. This approach can be made possible by
system dynamics modeling.
The Market C ompetitive Behavior in the
Project-based Industries
Project-based industries are among the largest industries in the global
economy and project-based organizations are also becoming prevalent in
the emerging industries. In a project-based industry, a contract is usually
awarded before the goods or services are completely provided by the
contractor and contractors routinely compete for contracts under specific
project awarding systems. The characteristic of the transactions and
contractors reactions to project awarding systems forms unique pattern
of market competitive behavior of the project-based industry. This paper
the market petitive behavior and the problems of the
ineffective competition under price-based and qualification-based project
awarding systems. Several unanticipated adverse feedback behavioral
loops generated from contractors opportunistic bidding are discovered
and analyzed. Managerial policy implications to project owners are also
discussed and tested through a simulation model.
Inductive Modelling of an Entrepreneurial
System
In this paper we present a model that represents a novel approach to
generating a theory of the behaviour of an entrepreneurial or start-up
system. The system around the cities of Bath and Bristol in the UK was
analysed using an inductive ethnographic approach that hybridises
grounded theory with system dynamics, an approach we have called
grounded systems modelling. The model consists of three main causal
loops that represent the stages of development of an idea through to
successful exploitation - i) Spotting opportunity, testing and validation,
ii) Realistic equity position, and iii) Scale up and exit. The results are
discussed within the context of entrepreneurial research and a critique of
the methodology is offered.
The Impact of Aggregation Assumptions and
Social Network Structure on Diffusion Dynamics
Diffusion problems in general, and innovation diffusion problems in
specific, are one of the most frequently revisited issues in system
dynamics domain. Although the models used for analyzing specific
diffusion problems differ in details, in most cases a set of assumptions is
recognized to be common. In this study, we aim to conduct a set of
experiments in order to question the validity and potential impact of
fundamental assumptions regarding the aggregation and social network
124 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Mehdi Zamanipour
mehdi@ zamanipour.com
University of Tehran
124 Adl St Binjand
Southern Khorasan
Tran
Qian Zhang
zhang31@ indiana.edu
Indiana University
919 E10th Street
Bloomington IN 47408
USA
Nathaniel Osgood
osgood@ alum.mit.edu
University of Saskatchewan
Computer Science Dpt 280.6 Thorvaldson
110 Science Place
Saskatoon SK S7N 5C9
Canada
structure. First, a generic model focuses on the impact of information
dynamics that accompany the diffusion process of an innovation is
introduced. The experiments conducted on the aggregate and individual-
level versions of the model reveal that the behavior of the system
converges to the aggregate model assuming perfect mixing as the
network gets denser. Secondly, the change in diffusion levels as a
consequence of changing network densities was monotonic. However,
direction of change was different for different groups of scenarios tested.
In other words, in some cases diffusion level increases as the network
gets denser, while in some other cases the opposite is observed.
A System Dynamics Model for Analyzing the
Effects of Government Policies: A Case Study of
Iran's Cell Phone Market
In 2005 Mr. Mahmoud A hmadinezhad won the presidential election
campaign and became the new president of Iran. He desired to change
deeply most of the usual social and economical rules and policies in
Iran’s society. For example, he decided to change the rate of tariff in
many kinds of products such as cell phones. Since he has wanted to
make Iran an independent country in producing cell phone and also to
create some job opportunity, he increased the rate of tariff for imported
cell phones and at the other hand many contracts was established with
cell phone companies to achieve the high technology of producing or
assembling cell phone. So a huge investment was done to make the first
Iranian National cell phone. But the cell phone market was shocked by
this hasty decision and little by little all of the cell phones in the market
were became contraband. In this research we are going to analyze the
effect of changing the rate of imported cell phone and also we explain
some policies for setting the rate of tariff.
Local Analysis of Individual-based Viral
Dynamic Models with Eigenspace and
Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis
Eigenvalue elasticity methods have been widely applied in analyzing
linear and simple nonlinear systems. In this study, we applied this
approach to gain insight into the leverage offered by parameter changes
in individual-based viral dynamic models for studying and controlling
infectious disease spread. We found that such eigenspace based methods
encounter severe limitations when applied to nonlinear systems with a
relatively large number of state variables. Although eigenvalue elasticity
offers some insight into the short-term impact of parameter changes,
eigenvalue elasticity method can be complicated and even unwieldy for
ing the impacts of changes for models with a
relatively large number of state variables because of eigenvalue
multiplicity, co-effects of eigenvalues, eigenvectors and coefficients. In
terms of disease control, while such analysis methods could be helpful
for identifying policy levers with high short-term impact, it is inefficient.
In addition, we found that parameter changes guided by such local
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 125
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Nicole Zimmermann
zimmermann.nicole@ gmail.com
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss
68131 Mannheim
Germany
techniques are usually insufficient to alter system behaviors in the long-
term, such as in the phase of endemic spread in the infectious disease
spread. We argue that further work should be focused on refining
eigenspace techniques and developing global analysis method to
understand the impact of parameter changes on long-term behavior.
Dynamics of Organizational A daptation, Inertia,
and Routines: Generic C ontributions from a
Study of Change
Inertia and routines are important organizational characteristics affecting
organizations’ evolution. Empirical research has found mixed results
conceming the question whether change establishes change routines that
make organizations more malleable or whether transformations inhibit
further alterations. Reasons for these results are analyzed in this paper by
means of a case study of organizational change at the New Y ork Stock
Exchange and respective system dynamics modeling. The analysis
reveals that there are multiple effects in the explanation of organizational
transformations which dynamically interact and become important
determinants of change and ad ion. The simul i ion
of balancing and reinforcing effects of adaptation, inertia, change
routines, and reactions to threat sheds light on the ambiguous empirical
results.
126 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Plenary Session Papers
George A. Backus
gabacku@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Albuquerque NM 87185-0370
USA
Jeff Amlin
JeffAmlin@ ENERGY2020.com
Systematic Solutions, Inc.
1519 Heatherwood Trail
Xenia OH 45385
USA
James K. Doyle
doyle@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Dept of Social Science
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Jeanine Skorinko
skorinko@ wpi.edu
WPI
100 Institute Rd
Worcester MA 01609
USA
A History of Making Energy Policy
For more than 30 years, system dynamics has played a noteworthy role
in the making of energy policy for many states, provinces, corporations,
and countries. This work has covered the spectrum from predictive
forecasting, to strategic planning, to assessing policy options, to
negotiating policy, to shaping policy, to defending policy, to swaying
policy. While The FOSSIL1 model appears to have begun this process,
the ENERGY 2020 model continues to influence the policy process in
functional, but possibly ambiguous, ways.
Personal versus Situational Dynamics:
Implications of Barry Richmond's Models of
Classic Experiments in Social Psychology
There is a long-standing debate in the field of social psychology as to
which is the primary determinant of behavior, the situation or system in
which people act or the personalities of the role players. Psychologists
have long studied this problem with controlled experiments on human
subjects, and have now come to a general resolution of the debate.
However, the field of psychology still lacks an efficient method for
teasing apart the relative contributions of personal and situational
variables in applied domains. An alternative to human subjects
experiments is to employ system dynamics models of role systems, as
was demonstrated by Barry Richmond when he attempted to model two
classic experiments in social psychology: the Milgram and Stanford
Prison experiments. In this paper, we replicate and discuss Barry
Richmond's models to present them to a new audience. In addition, we
use the models as a springboard to explore the relationship between
social psychology and system dynamics and the potential for useful
collaboration between the two fields.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 127
Plenary Session Papers
Navid Ghaffarzadegan
navidg@ gmail.com
University at Albany
122 Manning Blvd
Albany NY 12203
John Lyneis
jlyneis@ mit.edu
MIT
1010 Massachusetts A venue A pt 56
Cambridge MA 02138
USA
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 318 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222
USA
Robert J. Glass
riglass@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Box 5800
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA
Alan K. Graham
alan.k.graham@ alum.mit.edu
PA Consulting Group
68 Allen Street
Lexington MA 02421
USA
Why and How Small System Dynamics Models
Can Help Policymakers: A Review of Two Public
Policy Models
Public policies often fail to achieve their intended result due to the
complexity of both the environment and the policy making process. In
this article, we review the benefits of using small system dynamics
models to address public policy questions. First we discuss the main
difficulties inherent in the public policymaking process. Then, we
discuss how small system dynamics models can address policymaking
difficulties by ining two isi les: the first in the
domain of urban planning and the second in the domain of social
welfare. These examples show how we can get insightful and important
lessons for policy making that are exclusive to the endogenous and
aggregate perspective in modeling and simulation.
Pandemic Influenza and C omplex Adaptive
Systems of Systems (CA SoS) Engineering
We present the story of our involvement in the formulation of the US's
policy for mitigating pandemic influenza. At the heart of this formulation
was modeling but in its actualization was interaction, drive, serendipity,
hard work and advocacy for the use of models to select robust policy in
the face of great uncertainty. Reflecting on this entire process and others
where high impact influence has been achieved has led us to a
recognition that nearly all the systems that we wish to influence can be
categorized as Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems or CASoS and
that our field of endeavor is CASoS Engineering.
Four Grand Challenges for System Dynamics
In 2007 Jay Forrester challenged the field of system dynamics to address
the big issues. This paper discusses four "big issues" as "Grand
Challenges" in the DARPA sense, which meet the criteria of 1)
impacting lives or livelihoods of millions or billions of people, 2)
currently being govemed by mental models that are seriously flawed,
and 3) being addi ible by system d ics and ingly few other
disciplines. These are: 1. Insurgency, governance and political stability
2. Acting on global warming 3. Global financial stability 4. Harmonious
Chinese growth For each of these, the paper discusses the flaws in
governing mental models, briefly indicates the scope of analysis needed,
and gives a representative causal diagram showing some of the loops that
are complicating and obscuring a correct and widespread understanding
of each issue.
128 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Plenary Session Papers
Andrew P. Jones
apjones@ sustainer.org
Sustainability Institute
8 Lynmar Avenue
Asheville NC 28804
USA
John Sterman
jsterman@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142
USA
Thomas Fiddaman
tom@ metasd.com
Ventana Systems
1070 Bridger Woods Road
Bozeman MT 59715
USA
Travis Franck
travler@ mitedu
MIT
1 Amherst St E40-428
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
Birgit Kopainsky
birgit kopainsky@ flury-giuliani.ch
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
PO Box 7800
N-5020 Bergen
Norway
Sebastian Derwisch
s.derwisch@ cgiar.org
University of Bergen
Postbus 7800
Bergen 5020
Norway
Using C-ROADS to Support Analysis of
International Climate C hange Proposals
We report the creation and initial use of the Climate-Rapid Overview
And Decision Support Simulator (C-ROADS), a simple, fast, user-
friendly simulation of climate change that conforms with accepted
climate science while allowing decision makers to discover through
interactive exploration the range of greenhouse gas emissions trajectories
sufficient to achieve widely accepted goals for climate stabilization such
as stabilizing CO2 levels at 350-450 parts per million (ppm) or limiting
temperature increase to no more than 2 deg. Centigrade over pre-
industrial temperatures. Our results show that these proposals--even if
fully implemented--would be far from sufficient to meet the goals of
stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels at or below 450 ppm (reaching ~ 730
ppm by 2100) or limiting warming to 2 deg. C over pre-industrial
temperatures (reaching ~4 deg. C by 2100).
Elizabeth Sawin
bethsawin@ sustainer.org
Sustainability Institute
3 Linden Road
Hartland VT 05048
USA
Model-based exploration of strategies for
fostering adoption of improved seed in West
Africa
Seed of improved varieties and other inputs are imperative to the
ion of the agricultural sector from subsi e farming to
small-scale commercial agriculture in developing countries. This paper
analyzes the adoption and diffusion process of improved seed by farmers
in West Africa. The literature about farmers’ adoption of new
agricultural technology is abundant, yet it gives no inte-grated, process-
oriented policy ive that helps designing effective ies for
fostering the adoption of improved seed in West Africa. This paper
develops a system dynamics model that integrates the findings from
existing studies into a coherent framework. The model analyses the
behav-ior pattems that are generated by such structure. With this
approach we are able to identify parame-ter constellations that cause
observed behavior patterns for different crops in different countries. On
this basis we can derive policy implications for supporting adoption for
specific crops (such as cotton and maize) and countries (such as Burkina
Faso and Ghana) in West Africa.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 129
Plenary Session Papers
Dennis Meadows
lataillede@ aol.com
Laboratory for Interactive Learning
PO Box 844
Durham NH 03824
USA
Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ cde.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
360 Brooks Avenue NE
Atlanta GA 30307
Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting
4016 Hermitage Dr
Voorhees NJ 08043
USA
Gary B. Hirsch
gbhirsch@ comcast.net,
Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road
Wayland MA 01778
SA
What Models Are Required To Understand
Global Limits To Growth In The Next Two
Decades?
The industrialized democracies will experience more change in the two
decades, 2005-2025 than they did in the entire 20th century. The change
will be driven in part by the exploding effects of physical limits to
growth such as water scarcity, declining availability of fossil fuels,
climate change, and soil erosion. These changes will confront society
with an enormous challenge - finding ways that information about
longer-term problems can be presented so that it has a constructive
impact on political and corporate leaders, who typically have very short-
term perspectives. There will be a new set of dynamic questions to
explore. For example, how can an society continue to satisfy the needs of
its people while experiencing an aging population and declining labor
force? How can an economy adapt to rising energy prices without
reducing the well-being of its citizens? How can research on
temperature-tolerant food species be introduced into the agricultural
system without disrupting existing food chains? Dennis Meadows will
list several of the important limits, give data on their current and likely
future impact, and describe some of the system dynamics modeling
opportunities they will afford.
The HealthBound Policy Simulation Game: An
Adventure in US Health Reform
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed the
HealthBound game for those wanting to experience the possibility of
transforming our troubled health system. Players are equipped with the
power to navigate the country’s health system toward greater levels of
health, equity, and cost-effectiveness, if only they can discover how. The
players’ goals are difficult to achieve, in part, because the game includes
resource constraints, time delays, and side effects of intervention similar
to those of the actual health system. The game allows tests of single
interventions, as well as a high degree of creativity in mixing them for
better effects. There is also a transparent causal structure that allows
players to identify the precise reasons for patterns observed in the game.
Players learn by simulated experience and by tracing through the reasons
for their successes or failures. Those who aspire to lead change on a
national scale, or in their own sphere of influence, may benefit by first
testing and refining their ideas in this realistic, but simplified version of
the U.S. health system. The game teaches essential lessons about how
the health system works and establishes a productive frame for finding a
viable way forward.
130 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Plenary Session Papers
Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6
5020 Bergen
Norway
Paul Newton
paul.c.newton2@ boeing.com
The Boeing Company
10718 Country Club Lane South
Seattle WA 98168
USA
Michael Richey
michael.c.richey@ boeing.com
The Boeing Company
Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh
mohammad mojtahedzadeh@ boeing.com
The Boeing Company
PO Box 3707 MC4A-73
Seattle WA 98124-2207
USA
Hernando A lex Sanchez
alex_sanchez@ raytheon.com
Raytheon
18 Piedmont St
Boston MA 02116
USA
Brian Wells
brian_h_wells@ raytheon.com
235 Wyman Street
Waltham MA 02451
Are advice adhered to? Populist versus activist
or expert advice.
Laboratory experiments of decision making have revealed widespread
misperceptions of nonlinear dynamic systems. A possible criticism of
these experiments is that participants do not get the advice they may
receive in real situations. Here we repeat one previous experiment where
we add two conflicting advice. A ‘populist’ advice reflects typical
misperceptions while a second advice represents a near-to-optimal
policy. The latter advice is in the wording of an ‘activist’ in Treatment 1
and in the wording of an ‘expert’ in systems analysis in Treatment 2. The
results suggest that advice, including near-to-optimal ones, may have
minor effects in complex systems. Activist wording seems more
effective than expert wording, with the possible exception for
participants with a certain background in stock and flow reasoning.
STEM Pressures from Birth to Globalization:
Five Related Models
In the U.S., there is progressively more concem about the impact that
changes in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) skills
might have on the future of U.S. prosperity. In parallel with their many
STEM initiatives, industry, education, and govemment are engaged in
multi-faceted STEM policy conversations, both among themselves and
with the American public. We know of five system dynamics models
that have been developed toward the objective of improving these STEM
policy conversations. In this session, Boeing, as catalyst for development
of three of these five models, will outline the STEM problem, summarize
and lightly compare the five models, and present one of the models. The
model presented here arose from a reading of the National A cademies'
report, "Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing
America for a Brighter Economic Future." The model focuses on the
reinforcing feedback between U.S. prosperity and the U.S. Science and
Technology Enterprise, and concentrates attention on how education,
R&D investment, and immigration policies might act to strengthen or
weaken that feedback. Thus, this model provides a dynamic conceptual
framework within which one can place the other four STEM models to
be presented in other sessions at this conference.
Using System Dynamics to Model Student
Interest in Science, Technology, Engineering,
and Mathematics
This paper presents preliminary results of a Raytheon project that uses
systems dynamics to understand the intricacies of the U.S. educational
system and to assist in exploring the effects of policies and programs,
with a goal of doubling the numbers of science, technology, engineering
and mathematics (STEM) college graduates by 2015. Specifically, a
system dynamics model has been developed, the initial version of which
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 131
Plenary Session Papers
Joanne M. Attridge
joanne_m_attridge@raytheon.com
350 Lowell Street
Andover MA 01810
USA
Peter M. Senge
diane@ solonline.org
Society for Organizational Learning
25 First St Ste 414
Cambridge MA 02141
USA
Ozge Pala
o.pala@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
School of Management
Th van Aquinostraat 1 2 2 PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Paul Newton
paul.c.newton2@ boeing.com
The Boeing Company
10718 Country Club Lane South
Seattle WA 98168
USA
Bruce Skarin
bruceskarin@ hotmail.com
Aptima Inc
25 Herricks Lane
Millbury MA 01527
USA
Oleg V. Pavlov
opavlov@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Jeanine Skorinko
skorinko@ wpi.edu
WPI
100 Institute Rd
Worcester MA 01609
USA
targets increasing the number of students both capable and interested in
pursuing careers in STEM disciplines. A few scenarios have been
analyzed that examine changes for improving student capabilities. Initial
results provide insight into the value and viability of a few proposed
policies and indicate that with continued research, model development,
and analysis it will be possible to further assess proposed improvements
in the U.S education system.
A Conversation with Peter Senge, Ozge Pala,
and Paul Newton
This event will entail a semi-structured dialogue with Peter Senge, the
well-known author of The Fifth Discipline, Ozge Pala, a promising
young scholar, and Paul Newton, an entrepreneurial modeler. Together
they will reflect on their experiences with fostering genuine systems
awareness and wiser actions within education, civil society and business.
The conversation will address themes, topics and questions of interest to
the audience, both surveyed in advance and impromptu. This event is a
special feature of the K-12 program thread which is open to all
conference participants.
Modeling the Cycles of Gang and Criminal
Behavior
Ina study done by Saeed and Pavlov a generic microstructure of
resource competition was developed and stylized using the dynastic
cycles that occurred throughout Chinese history. The result was a model
that demonstrated how economic drivers contribute to the cycles
observed in the rise and fall of dynasties and lawlessness. Using their
structure, with only a few substitutions of names, the same model
suitably describes numerous systems where similar cycles in resource
levels can be observed. Y et, in some systems, such as gangs, the
economic motivations alone do not adequately describe the social factors
clearly evident in rise and fall of criminal behavior attributed to gangs.
This paper explores the social influence gaps in the purely economic
model, identifies a social structure that can be used instead of the
economic mechanisms, and then examines implications of a model that
combines both aspects of the system. The result of this research indicates
that both economic and social influences are capable of producing cycles
and when combined, only further exacerbate the problem. These findings
have import implications on policy design, suggesting that solutions will
need to simultaneously consider both aspects.
132 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Plenary Session Papers
To Be Announced
Presentation by the System Dynamics
Applications Award Winner
The System Dynamics A pplications A ward is presented by the System
Dynamics Society as often as once every two years for the best "real
world" application of system d ducted within 10 years of the
submission deadline. The best application will be based primarily on
d ible benefit to an ization through the use of
system dynamics, and secondarily for new ideas that improve the art of
applying system dynamics, or for relating work to existing system.
dynamics literature and/or other disciplines. The winner will be
announced during this session, followed by a presentation by this year’s
winner.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 133
Meetings, Special & C onvened Sessions
Mark Heffernan
mheffernan@ evanspeck.com
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
475 Victoria Ave Level 6 Tower 2
Chatswood NSW 2067
Australia
Joanne C. Egner
jegner@ iseesystems.com
isee systems inc
31 Old Etna Road Suite 7N
Lebanon NH 03766
USA
Leonard A. Malczynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Mail Stop 0735
Albuquerque NM 87123-1350
USA
Aldo Zagonel
aazagon@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137
USA
Andrew Ford
forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
Environmental Science
PO Box 644430
Pullman WA 99164-4430
USA
Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting
4016 Hermitage Dr
Voorhees NJ 08043
USA
Listed alphabetically by Session name
Australasia C hapter Annual Meeting
The Australasia Chapter will meet at the Conference to discuss progress
in the past year, and also to develop a plan for the coming year.
Barry Richmond Scholarship A ward
Announcement (External Award)
The Barry Richmond Scholarship A ward is presented annually to a
deserving Systems Thinking or System Dynamics practitioner whose
work demonstrates a desire to expand the field or to apply it to current
social issues. The winner of this award will be announced at the banquet
on Tuesday evening.
Conference Debriefing and
Program Debriefing Meetings
All are welcome to attend these meetings to talk about what worked and
what needed imp! at the Alb C Also, please
remember to complete and return the conference survey. Post-
conference, please email the conference survey to Etiénne Rouwette
<E.Rouwette@fm.ru.nl>. A link to an online version of the survey will
be available via the conference website
(http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/current/index.htm).
David N. Ford Edward G. Anderson
davidford@ tamu.edu edward.anderson@ mccombs.utexas.edu
Texas A&M University University of Texas
Dept Civil Engineering McCombs School of Business
Mailstop 3136 IROM Dept
College Station TX 77843-3136 1 University Station B6500
USA Austin TX 78712 USA
Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany
Albany NY 12222
134 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Meetings, Special and C onvened S
R. Joel Rahn
jrahn@ sympatico.ca
4636 Sugar Maple Drive
Ottawa ON K1V 1Y6
Canada
Kaoru Y amaguchi
kaoru3@ muratopia.org
Doshisha University
521 Minamidani Aihara
Goshiki-cho Sumoto Hyogo 656-1325
Japan
Michael S. Kennedy
mike kennedy@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
Department of Accounting and Finance
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA
UK
Carol Frances
carolfrances100@ hotmail.com
27711 Vista del Valle
Hemet Califomia 92544-8394
USA
Andrea Marcello Bassi
ab@ millennium-institute.org
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650
Arlington VA 22201
USA
Luc Van Den Durpel
vddurpel@ listo.be
LISTO bvba
Groenstraat 35
9250 Waasmunster
Belgium
Dana Meadows Award Announcement
The Dana Meadows A ward was established in 2001 to honor the late
Dana Meadows and encourage the next generation of students in the
field of system dynamics. The award is given annually for the best paper
by a student presented at the annual System Dynamics Conference.
Students can self-nominate any manuscript that has been submitted for
inclusion in the conference. The winner receives a cash award of $500 as
well as conference registration plus travel expenses (up to a combined
maximum of $700).
Economics Chapter Annual Meeting
The Economics Chapter will hold its annual meeting. All are welcome to
attend.
Education Roundtable and Education SIG
Annual Meeting
This Roundtable is the place to come to discuss substantive education
issues, whether you are part of the Education SIG or simply exploring
possibilities. The Ed SIG is establishing an agenda which embraces both
elementary and secondary education and high education. We also deal
with both management and public policy issues. We will continue
working on the intellectual and operational challenges to system
dynamics of the PK-20+ concept of lifelong learning from
prekindergarten to continuing adult education, reaching beyond the usual
silos separating the domains. Come tell us what you are working on, or
just ask questions.
Energy Roundtable and Energy SIG Annual
Meeting
The Energy Roundtable will have two main purposes this year. Firstly,
we will update all interested parties on past and present activities and
will collect ideas on possible next steps for the Energy SIG. Secondly,
specific relevant energy issues will be discussed, to identify what critical
contributions the SD community could provide.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 135
Meetings, Special and C onvened S'
Allyson Beall
abeall@ wsu.edu
Washington State University
344 NW Harrison St
Pullman WA 99163
Robert L. Eberlein
bob@vensim.com
Ventana Systems Inc
17 Loker Street
Wayland MA 01778 USA
Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany
Albany NY 12222 USA
Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ cde.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
360 Brooks Avenue NE
Atlanta GA 30307
Mark Heffernan
mheffernan@ evanspeck.com
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
475 Victoria Ave Level 6 Tower 2
Chatswood NSW 2067
Australia
Environmental Roundtable and Environmental
SIG Annual Meeting
The environmental special interest group welcomes everyone to join us
in this important discussion about the chall ding the use of
system dynamics for natural resource modeling. Issue for discussion:
Natural resource modelers often need to use data to create model
behavior; moreover our cliental often expect to see their data and how it
fits into a model. What are the challenges of managing the data driven
nature of environmental while still designing system dynamic models.
Many people who are not trained in system dynamics pick up software
such as Stella and Vensim, build models and assume they are doing
system dynamics. When they do not get results that are insightful they
think that system dynamics is not useful. What can we do as a
community of practice to enlighten modelers that system dynamics is
much more than software and encourage the (proper) use of system
dynamics in this field?
Exhibitor Demonstrations
Exhibitor demonstrations will be held during breaks to showcase
products and services in practice.
Getting to Know the System Dynamics Society
This event gives newer conference attendees an opportunity to leam
more about the Society and to meet a few of the officers. This is a very
informal meeting with a web tour of how to best use the Society's
website. Most of the time will be spent on questions generated by the
audience.
Health Policy Special Interest Group Business
Meeting for Exploring C ollaborations
Health policy challenges in different countries often share similar
structural features. Therefore it has been a longstanding goal of the
HPSIG to foster international collaboration in studying health system
dynamics. Previous efforts to pool insights and compare findings across
countries have focused on approaches to national health reform as well
as efforts to reduce health inequities. Anyone intersted exploring
ities for future collak is welcome to attend this informal,
organizational meeting. Please bring ideas about where your work may
focus in the year ahead and which topics seem best suited for
collaborative or comparative modeling.
136 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Meetings, Special and C onvened S
Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ cde.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
360 Brooks Avenue NE
Atlanta GA 30307
Mark Heffernan
mheffernan@ evanspeck.com
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
475 Victoria Ave Level 6 Tower 2
Chatswood NSW 2067
Australia
Peter Otto
ottop@ union.edu
Union Graduate College
410 Terrace Road
Schenectady NY 12306
USA
Oleg V. Pavlov
opavlov@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Peter Otto
ottop@ union.edu
Union Graduate College
410 Terrace Road
Schenectady NY 12306
USA
Evangelos Katsamakas
katsamakas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University
113 West 60th Street
School of Business 6th floor
New York NY 10023
USA
Health Policy Special Interest Group,
Roundtable and Election (Sunday)
The Health Policy Special Interest Group formed more than six years
ago and has grown to include nearly 300 members. We are an
intemational SIG with worldwide bership and active collak
that use dynamic analyses to advance major policy initiatives. Current
activities include gathering on-line teaching materials, fostering
international collaboration in understanding health system change, and
assembling a library of SD health models. This year’s meeting will
feature project summaries from some of the world’s health policy
modelers and we will award the second annual student prize in Health
System dynamics (: 1 by the Lupina F dation of Canada).
Regardless of whether you are new to the field or a veteran modeler, we
welcome your participation in exchanging ideas about how SD can better
engage and support health policy leaders around the world.
Information Science and Information Systems
iSIG Annual Meeting
The Information Science and Information Systems Special Interest
Group (iSIG)will meet at the Conference to discuss progress in the last
year, and also to develop a plan for the coming year.
Evangelos Katsamakas
katsamakas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University
113 West 60th Street
School of Business 6th floor
New Y ork NY 10023
Information Science and Information Systems
iSIG Roundtable
The Information Science and Information Systems Special Interest
Group (iSIG) is interested in supporting the promotion of quality system
dynamics work in the areas of Information Science and Information
Systems. System dynamics has a long history analyzing complex
problems in a variety of application domains, ranging from
environmental or public policy, corporate strategy, security, healthcare,
and i to change However, it has not
seen extensive application in the Information Science and Systems
literature. The iSIG seeks to discuss research initiatives in the field of
Information Systems and Science as part of the Intemational Conference
in System Dynamics. The roundtable discussion aims to establish a
roadmap for research topics and collaborative initiatives within the scope
of the iSIG. We will facilitate a discussion and provide examples of
research studies in the field and hope to agree on an agenda for future
work.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 137
Meetings, Special and C onvened S'
Leonard A. Malczynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Mail Stop 0735
Albuquerque NM 87123-1350 USA
Edward G. Anderson
edward.anderson@ mecombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas
McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Station B6500
Austin TX 78712 USA
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609 USA
Habib Sedehi
habib.sedehi@ uniromal it
University of Rome
La Sapienza
Via Rubra 246
00188 Rome Italy
Lees N. Stuntz
stuntzln@ clexchange.org
Creative Leaming Exchange
27 Central Street
Acton MA 01720 USA
Tracy Benson
Lbenson@ watersfoundation.org
Waters Foundation
6420 E Broadway Blvd
Suite A100 Pima Regional Support Ctr
Tuscon AZ 85710 USA
Inter- and Intranational C onflict Roundtable
and SIG Annual Meeting
The Special Interest Group: Inter- and Intranational Conflict was
approved by the Policy Council of the System Dynamics Society on 3
March 2008. The SIG is concerned with the application of systems
dynamics to ding inter- and i ional conflict, e.g. military
and political conflict, terrorism, insurgency, etc. There is a wide range of
interested individuals, both academics and practitioners, currently
applying the system dynamics approach to this area. Much of this work
has not been published or is difficult to obtain. The purpose of the
roundtable is to attract more interest and to frame how the SIG can
interact, for example, in paper reviews, attendance at non-system
dynamics conflict conferences. etc.
Introduction of the System Dynamics
Applications Award Winner
The System Dynamics A pplications A ward is presented by the System
Dynamics Society as often as once every two years for the best "real
world" appli of system dt ducted within 10 years of the
submission deadline. The best application will be based primarily on
d ible benefit to an ion through the use of
system dynamics, and secondarily for new ideas that improve the art of
applying system dynamics, or for relating work to existing system.
dynamics literature and/or other disciplines.
Italian Chapter (SY DIC) Annual Meeting
This is the annual meeting of the Italian Chapter (SY DIC). All are
welcome.
K-12 Poster Session: What Is Happening in K-12
Systems Dynamics and Systems Thinking?
Come, enjoy, and learn from the wonderful and productive thinking that
is happening with students ages 5-19! This session is designed to be
informative and educational for both the participants at the International
System Dynamics Conference and the students and teachers who are
presenting examples of their system dynamics and systems thinking
work in classrooms. It is a chance to inform professionals, as well as
give the poster presenters a chance to interact positively with those
conversant in system dynamics. Constructive and positive discussion is
encouraged. This session is part of a special emphasis during this
to be welcoming, inclusive, and collaborative with the K-12
community.
138 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Meetings, Special and C onvened S
Gloria Pérez Salazar
gloria perez@ itesm.mx
Tecnologico de Monterrey
Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
Av Eugenio Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL
Mexico
Jeffrey Boyer
jboyer01@ nycap.rr.com
University at Albany
College of Nanoscale Science & Eng
257 Fuller Road
Albany NY 12203
SA
Peter J. Warrian
peterwarrian@ sympatico.ca
Lupina Foundation
1 Devonshire Place
Toronto ON M5S 3Ky
Canada
Latin America Chapter Annual Meeting
During the 2008 Annual Meeting we met many Spanish-speaking
members living outside the Spanish-speaking countries and the wider
group continues to grow. This year's meeting is an opportunity to talk
about sponsorships and future joint activities and also to welcome new
members. Any topic members feel is relevant for the development of the
Chapter (whose mission is to spread system dynamics in the Spanish
speaking world) are welcome.
Long Waves and Short Waves - How Should
Business Simulations Ride the Wave?
Roundtable & Business SIG Annual Meeting
Business activities have heen described using system dynamics for more
than fifty years. Planning and scheduling, product adoption, profitability,
job satisfaction, and many other parameters have been simulated. But
have the prevailing assumptions behind these models been complete, or
have they reflected narrow experience observed over a relatively short
period? How many of the business-related models reported within the
past ten years, for example, examined the effects of a major recession?
Are the resulting policies rational at this time? Can and should the
models be adjusted to reflect the current situation? Or should new
models be developed? In light of the significant downtum in the global
economy, is it time to rethink the underlying paradigms of economic and
market behaviors? Have system dynamics models been based on overly
optimistic expectations for long-term performance, leading to policies
that do not consider negative externalities? What is the need for
including a long-term view, say fifty or sixty years, of external economic
and political cycles when simulating behavior over ten or twenty years?
This dtable will be an open di ion of the value of including the
effects of short-, medium-, and long-term economic cycles on the
dynamic simulation of business activities.
Lupina Y oung Researchers Award
Announcement (External A ward)
The Health Policy Special Interest Group (HPSIG) of the System
Dynamics Society is proud to announce the Lupina Y oung Researchers
Award for work in health system dynamics. The award is sponsored by
the Lupina Foundation of Toronto, Canada, and will be accompanied by
acheck in the amount of CAN$5000. The award will be presented to the
recipient (or recipients) during the HPSIG meeting on the Sunday
afternoon meeting just preceding the conference. This award will be
given to people at early stages of their careers to encourage them to do
further work in health system dynamics.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 139
Meetings, Special and C onvened S'
Peter S. Hovmand
phovmand@ wustl.edu
Washington University in St Louis
George Warren Brown School of Social Work
One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
Saint Louis MO 63130
Jill H. Slinger
j.h.slinger@ tbm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5
2628 BX Delft
Netherlands
James Melhuish
jamesmelhuis@ gmail.com
BAE Systems
82 Harvard Street
Newtonville MA 02460-2232
USA
Leonard A. Malczynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Mail Stop 0735
Albuquerque NM 87123-1350
USA
Membership Forum on Diversity in the System
Dynamics Society
The System Dynamics Society has been committed to increasing
diversity in membership and field of system dynamics. This roundtable
provides an open forum for conference attendees to discuss concems,
improvements, and new directions that the System Dynamics Society
should to increase diversity of the membership and field of system
dynamics. Everyone is welcome.
Model Analysis Roundtable and SIG-MA
Annual Meeting
At the 2008 System Dynamics Conference in A thens a survey of the
ing and ex of conference participants di
model analysis was conducted. Respondents included both those active
in research on formal model analysis and those only vaguely familiar
with the term. Results from the survey will be presented and discussed.
The implications for the Special Interest Group on Model Analysis (SIG-
MA) will be explored under the chairmanship of the newly elected co-
chair of the SIG-MA.
Newcomer Orientation
The Newcomer Orientation Session is a special event for newcomers,
scheduled for a half hour on Sunday aftemoon. Newcomers and veteran
attendees (guides) will be brought together based on their topics of
interest. The guides will provide information to help the newcomers
maneuver through the conference resourcefully and get the most out of
the conference experience. The Sunday afternoon session will "self-
organize" into groups of newcomers and guides to cover general topics.
Some examples of topics are Business, Education, Energy, Environment,
Health Policy, Security, Military, Economics, Psychology, Public Policy,
Social Science, Strategy, and Organizational Change. Newcomers will
also be advised of the Society Chapter meetings and the Special Interest
Group (SIG) meetings that may match their interests.
AND
Newcomer Orientation: Scavenger Hunt
Newcomer Orientation Activity: Scavenger Hunt, to be done by
participants throughout the conference. We would like some time on
Wednesday to announce 1st, 2nd, 3rd places.
140 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Meetings, Special and C onvened S
Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting
4016 Hermitage Dr
Voorhees NJ 08043
USA
Roderick H. MacDonald
rod@ isdps.org
Initiative for SD in the Public Sector
300 G Milne Hall
University at Albany
Albany NY 12222
USA
James M. Lyneis
jmlyneis@ alum.mit.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
PO Box 121
215 Landgrove Road
Weston VT 05161 USA
Robert L. Eberlein
bob@vensim.com
Ventana Systems Inc
17 Loker Street
Wayland MA 01778 USA
Jack Pugh
jackpugh@ alum.mit.edu
49 Bedford Rd
Lincoln MA 01773 USA
Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany
Albany NY 12222 USA
Khalid Saeed
saeed@wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Ninth Annual Modeling Assistance Workshop
Modeling assistance is available at the conference to enable people to
receive one-on-one coaching with an experienced system dynamics
practitioner. Opportunities include two scheduled sessions, as well as the
possibility of assistance at any time during the conference. Assistance is
available for modelers at any level of modeling ability, from beginner to
advanced, with questions about a specific model, methodology, or
software. Questions may address problem identification, dynamic
hypothesis development, model formulation, model testing, or policy
design and evaluation. Modelers should bring whatever materials they
need to describe their modeling question, including pencil and paper,
articles, books, or laptop computers. Spectators are welcome to observe,
and even contribute their own ideas, during the scheduled modeling
assistance sessions.
Outstanding Service Award Presentation
The System Dynamics Society Outstanding Service A ward recognizes
individuals that have, on a volunteer basis, made exceptional
contributions to the Society over an extended period of time. The Society
has a long and proud tradition of volunteer service and Julie Pugh, who
volunteered as the first Executive Director, has inspired this award. Even
after establishing a central office with a paid professional staff in 1996,
the growth and development of the Society has been heavily dependent
on the work of volunteers. To acknowledge this work, emphasize its
importance in achieving Society goals, and highlight efforts that can
inspire others, this service award was established in 2009. It is awarded
as often as once per year during the annual conference.
Pakistan Chapter Annual Meeting
The Pakistan Chapter will hold its annual meeting. All are welcome to
attend.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 141
Meetings, Special and C onvened S'
Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl
Universidad de Talca
FACE
Avenida Lircay s/n
Talca
Chile
Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de
University of St. Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
9000 St Gallen
Switzerland
Andreas Grofler
agroe@ gmx.de
Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management.
Postbus 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Robert L. Eberlein
bob@vensim.com
Ventana Systems Inc
17 Loker Street
Wayland MA 01778 USA
James M. Lyneis
jmlyneis@ alum.mit.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
PO Box 121
215 Landgrove Road
Weston VT 05161 USA
Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany
Albany NY 12222 USA
David W. Lounsbury
dlounsbu@ aecom.yu.edu
Einstein College of Medicine, Y eshiva
1300 Mortis Park Avenue
Belfer 1302F
Bronx NY 10461 USA
Ralph L. Levine
leviner@ msu.edu
Michigan State University
1954 Riveria Drive
East Lansing MI 48823
USA
Peer Review Dialog Meeting
Since 2005, there has been an opportunity for joint reflection about the
quality of the peer review process at each conference. In the subsequent
conferences, discussin became more structured and this year, a
substantial effort has been made. Still there remains work to be done in
order to arrive at a policy that would achieve a satisfactory balance
between paper and presentation quality on one side and other goals of
the conference on the other. This year’s meeting is the opportunity to
discuss a set of indicators to express the presentation and paper quality
perceived by attendees; also we can assess up to which point the new
policies have yielded improvements. Reviewers, chairs and organizers
are specially invited to give their input.
Prospective C onference Host Meeting
The annual conference is the most important activity of the Society, and
therefore hosting it is a very important contribution to the Society. In
addition, being a host for this event can bring fame (sorry, no fortune) to
the hosting individuals and organization, and attract local interest in the
field. In this meeting we will discuss the timetable and activities
involved in preparing a bid to host the conference, the requirements for a
successful bid, and the requirements for a successful conference. We will
also discuss the Society’s schedule for conference site rotation, and the
role of SIGs and Chapters in conferences. Please attend this meeting if
you have any interest in hosting a future conference.
AND
Conference Budgeting Workshop for Hosting a
Society C onference
This workshop will show how the Society deals with budgeting fora
conference, the budgeting timeline, and what is required financially. This
event is open to anyone interested in our conferences.
Psychology Roundtable
The Psychology Roundtable is a venue for discourse and learning about
ways of integrating psychological processes into system dynamics
models and to apply system dynamics methodology to the formation of
psychological theories. To stimulate discussion, we will present a
dynamics case study of Zimbardo's 'Standford Prison Experiment.'
Modelers of all disciplines and back ds - including the social and
behavioral sciences, health services research and policy, epidemiology,
medicine, genomics, ethics, organizational theory and human resources,
engineering, and beyond - are most welcome to participate.
142 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Meetings, Special and Convened Sessions
Ralph L. Levine
leviner@msu.edu
Michigan State University
1954 Riveria Drive
East Lansing MI 48823 USA
David W. Lounsbury
dlounsbu@aecom.yu.edu
Einstein College of Medicine, Yeshiva
1300 Morris Park Avenue
Belfer 1302F
Bronx NY 10461 USA
Eliot Rich
rich@acm.org
University at Albany
Dept of Info Technology Management
1400 Washington Avenue BA-310
Albany NY 12222
USA
Edoardo Cavalieri-D'Oro
edo@ed0.it
MIT
95 Allston Street
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegi@tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia
Spain
Christian Weitert
ceweitert@is. bwl.uni-mannheim.de
University of Mannheim
Schloss Industrieseminar
68131 Mannheim
Germany
Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@web.de
University of St. Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
9000 St Gallen
Switzerland
Psychology Special Interest Group Annual
Meeting
The Psychology SIG is devoted to integrating psychological processes
into system dynamic models and to use system dynamics principles in
developing new psychological theories. We invite members and
prospective members to assist us in conducting a general review of the
state of the SIG, with particular attention given to identifying short-term
and long-term goals and to nominating and conferring new leadership.
Security Roundtable - The Challenges of
Modeling Security Problems and Security SIG
Annual Meeting
Modeling strategic and tactical problems in the information and
infrastructure security domains presents special problems for the system
dynamicist. Concerns about confidentiality, problem uncertainty, and
inter-organizational conflicts all contribute to the modeling challenge.
Once models are crafted, their distribution is often restricted and the
dissemination of insights is limited to the particular sponsor. The
Security SIG convenes a roundtable of modelers who will answer
questions and discuss their experience in past and current projects
concerning: Establishing the problem boundary and choice of modeling
paradigm; Using SD to identify critical scenarios for expert
examination; Eliciting and capturing expert insight from confidential
data; Modeling problems that span the multiple organizations
responsible for security; Creating and disseminating open models;
Publishing opportunities in security research. Invited panelists include:
Edo Cavaleri DOro, MIT Ignacio Martinez-Moyano, Argonne National
Laboratory Tom Corbet, Sandia National Laboratory Finn Olav Sveen,
University at Agder Jose Manuel Torres, TECNUN, University of
Navarra.
Student Chapter Annual Meeting
The Student Chapter brings together students who are involved in system
dynamics research, and it gives them the opportunity to raise key
questions and discuss concerns related to their research in a constructive
and enjoyable atmosphere.
Swiss Chapter Annual Meeting
The Swiss Chapter of the System Dynamics Society consists of
researchers, educators, consultants, and practitioners in corporate and
public sectors. Approximately 140 people receive our e-mails and about
twenty of them are full members who pay the membership fee. The
number of participants in chapter meetings is relatively constant at
around ten. Additional activities involve enhancing consulting
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 143
Meetings, Special and C onvened S'
Diana Fisher
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School
7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008
USA
Gonenc Y iicel
g.yucel@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5 Room B-3-280
2628 BX Delft
The Netherlands
Christian Lehr
clehr@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss $ 202-214
68165 Mannheim
Germany
and ed Chapter meetings are organized
where we usually combine a presentation about System Dynamics in
action with the discussion of organizational, chapter-related issues. In
addition, the Swiss Chapter organizes several PhD round tables each
year at different locations. At these meetings, PhD students of
Switzerland who apply System Dynamics and related disciplines in their
research have the opportunity to present and discuss their projects and
obtain feedback from senior researchers and peers. With such a structure,
we try to maximize the benefits for our chapter members. The value
added by the Chapter's activities lies in the provision of networking,
learning and exchange opportunities.
System Dynamics Models Created by High
School Students, Presented by the Students
For those of us who work with students and who have introduced system
dynamics modeling and systems thinking into our curriculum, the time
has come to highlight that student work. We need to begin the process of
changing the minds of other interested educators and parents. We will
not have the statistical data needed to change opinions on a large scale
for at least the next five to ten years. So what can be done now? Let the
students make our point. We need to make student work public. The
work should highlight the important components of the system dynamics
method. It should highlight the study of important problems not usually
addressed in typical classrooms. It should highlight the thought
processes that students go through as they build models and/or analyze
problems using feedback. It should show what policies students might
recommend, or show what policies currently in place would not work, by
using the feedback in the system. It should make a parent want their
child to have an opportunity to learn this way. This paper will present
some recent models created by students ages 15 to 18 ina system
dynamics modeling course in the United States.
System Dynamics PhD Colloquium
The PhD Colloquium is a whole day event for PhD-students to present
and discuss their current research about foundations, techniques, and
applications in the area of system dynamics. Junior and senior system
dynamics practitioners and academics meet here every year to exchange
ideas about students projects in an inspiring international and open-
minded atmosphere. The forth-coming 10th PhD Colloquium will take
place on Sunday, July 26, 2009 at the 27th Intemational Conference of
the System Dynamics Society in Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA.
Plenary pres-entations by PhD-students at the Colloquium will identify
common probl d by these using system
dynamics. Each presentation will be followed by an extensive discussion
session, providing a unique opportunity for learning among all
attendants, and particu-larly for young researchers. Combined with a
poster session, we expect the all-day colloquium to be an exciting event.
To conclude the day, attendants will be invited to join for an informal
and friendly social event. More information is available at
www.sdstudentchapter.org. Any questions about participating in the
colloquium can be directed to phdcolloquium@ systemdynamics.org.
144 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Meetings, Special and C onvened S
Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6
5020 Bergen
Norway
Brian C. Dangerfield
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford
Salford Business School CORAS
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford M5 4WT
UK
System Dynamics Society Business Meeting
All members and interested parties are invited to attend the annual
System Dynamics Society Business Meeting.
United Kingdom Chapter Annual Meeting
The UK Chapter have regular meetings in the UK and annually at the
international conference venue. (See www. systemdynamics.org.uk) This
year we held our 11th Annual Gathering at London South Bank
University. Co-hosted with the SD + Study Group of the UK OR Society,
it proved a great success (53 attendees). The theme was “System
Dynamics: the client perspective”. The first aftemoon consisted of
presentations with clients there to offer their views on SD as a method of
policy analysis. The organisations involved were the Refrigeration
Corporation of Cleveland (Ohio), Bristol Water and the Ministry of
Justice. A buffet dinner followed in the evening. We held our 2nd PhD
Colloquium on the following moming with a number of student poster
presentations. Our evening networking events have continued. These are
an informal means of renewing acquaintances as well as meeting new
faces. This Spring we are planning one outside of London in the NW of
England. If you are based in the UK and not already on our membership
list (membership is free) then please do join us and see what we have to
offer. There are between 80 and 100 members active in SD in the UK.
Users' Group Meetings
Software users' group meetings will be held during the Albuquerque
conference.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 145
Chapter & Special Interest Group
Poster Presentations
Jeffrey Boyer
jboyer0I@nycap.rr.com
University at Albany
College of Nanoscale Science & Eng
257 Fuller Road
Albany NY 12203 USA
Kaoru Yamaguchi
kaoru3@muratopia.org
Doshisha University
521 Minamidani Aihara
Goshiki-cho Sumoto Hyogo 656-1325
Japan
Listed alphabetically by Chapter or Special Interest Group name
Business Special Interest Group
Poster Presentation
Does your company use system dynamics modeling? Would you like to
learn how other businesses are applying system dynamics tools? Would
you like some help bringing these tools into your business? The Business
Special Interest Group was formed in 2005 to provide a forum for the
exchange of ideas, methods, and lessons learned in the use of system
dynamics in the corporate world. The SIG has grown substantially in the
number of interested members since then. Our members represent a
cross-section of industrial, consulting, and academic organizations,
offering tremendous depth and breadth in relevant expertise. Our goal is
to encourage the sharing of system dynamics best practices in business.
Our approach is three-fold: (1) Development of the system dynamics
modeling competence of business users through training and
(2) Sharing dati around effective tools and
with i ity to policy and decision
making in business, and (3) Encouraging and inviting presentation tracks
and speakers to present applicable work and case studies at the annual
International System Dynamics Conference.
Economics Chapter
Poster Presentation
The Economics Chapter promotes the use of system dynamics to study
and improve economic systems. The chapter maintains a website
(http://www. ics.org/cl ) and a mailing list
with over 100 subscribers as of April 2009. Members of the chapter have
organized system dynamics threads during annual meetings of the
System Dynamics Society. Last year's Economics Roundtable discussion
was on the "Global Economic Outlook". This year, the chapter plans to
organize a full Bonus Day workshop on economic modeling. We
anyone i in to visit our poster to learn
about the activities of the chapter and its members. We also want to hear
about your interests and invite you to join the chapter.
146 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Chapter & SIG Poster Presentations
Carol Frances
carolfrances100@ hotmail.com
27711 Vista del Valle
Hemet Califomia 92544-8394
USA
Michael S. Kennedy
mike kennedy@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
Department of Accounting and Finance
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA UK
Andrea Marcello Bassi
ab@ millennium-institute.org
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650
Arlington VA 22201
Luc Van Den Durpel
vddurpel@ listo.be
LISTO bvba
Groenstraat 35
9250 Waasmunster
Belgium
Allyson Beall
abeall@ wsu.edu
Washington State University
344 NW Harrison St
Pullman WA 99163
Education Special Interest Group
Poster Presentation
E-SIG Current and Planned A ctivities 1. Building a network of mutually
helpful resource people interested in system dynamics approaches to any
aspect of education. 2. Encoureging the generation of additional
3.D ive taxonomy of published work
in the field and making it ‘available. 4. Supporting the training of teachers
5. Developing and updating an E-SIG website. 6. Reaching out to other
professional education associations to acquaint them with the potential
value to them of system dynamic approaches to their work. 7.
Encouraging undergraduate and graduate students to undertake projects
and dissertations to advance the theory and application of system
dynamics to education, 8. Organizing the second intemational workshop
on application of system dynamics to education. Please come to the E-
SIG sessions to tell us about your work and find out what others are
doing. See you there !!!
Energy Special Interest Group
Poster Presentation
The poster of the Energy SIG presents past and present activities of the
group. Key energy issues will be highlighted, as well as relevant studies
in the field.
Environmental Special Interest Group
Poster Presentation
The System Dynamics Society has partnered with Carbonfund.org as a
means of offsetting the carbon emissions associated with the conference.
Intemational conferences have an especially high carbon footprint
primarily due to people flying long distances. Other sources of emissions
include hotel energy and food, and local transportation. Other than
having a virtual conference one manner of reducing our carbon footprint
is to purchase carbon offsets. Carbonfund, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, has
helped us estimate our conference emissions at 900.9 metric tons and is
offering a website as a manner to pay for offsets and keep track of our
total contributions. Carbonfund.org supports three types of carbon offset
projects: Renewable Energy - supports clean energy development, such
as wind, solar, and biomass. Energy Efficiency - reduces existing energy
use, much of which comes from coal, oil, and natural gas. Reforestation
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 147
Chapter & SIG Poster Presentations
Jiirgen Strohhecker
j.strohhecker@ frankfurt-school.de
Frankfurt School of Finance and Mgt
Sonnemannstrasse 9-11
D-60314 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Mathias Markus Fischer
mathiasdf@ ibmecsp.edu.br
MFSolutions Strategy & Simulation
Hofham 39
Bad Endorf 83093
Germany
Switbert Miczka
miczka@ systemdynamics.de
Mannheim University
Schloss $211
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany
Florian Kapmeier
florian kapmeier@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
Schoderstr 8
70192 Stuttgart
Germany
Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ cde.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
360 Brooks Avenue NE
Atlanta GA 30307
USA
Mark Heffernan
mheffernan@ evanspeck.com
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
475 Victoria Ave Level 6 Tower 2
Chatswood NSW 2067
Australia
Geoff McDonnell
gmcdonne@ bigpond.net.au
Adaptive Care Systems
382 Bronte Road
Bronte NSW 2024
Australia
- absorbs existing CO2 emissions, which helps to reduce the excess
greenhouse gases that humans have added to the atmosphere. The
interactive poster presented by the Environmental Special Interest Group
provides information about each of these offset projects. To offset your
emissions: http://www.carbonfund.org/site/pages/land/sds_conference.
German Chapter
Poster Presentation
The Chapter advances networking and collaboration among system
dynamicists in Germany with the frequent organisation of SD
roundtables and other meetings in various German cities. The German
Chapter currently has 86 paying members and is pleased to keep more
than 200 interested researchers, managers, and students updated through
its e-mail newsletter. On June 25th/26th, the 3nd German System
Dynamics Workshop will be held in Stuttgart. The event will bring
together modellers from the scientific community and corporate practice,
offering a wide array of opportunities to exchange ideas and opinions,
and bining talks, i and modelling ises. More
information on the activities of the German Chapter is available from our
website at http://www.systemdynamics.de.
Markus Salge
markus.salge@ gmail.com
PA Consulting Group
Eschersheimer Landstra&e 223
60320 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Health Policy Special Interest Group
Poster Presentation
The HPSIG was formed in 2003 and now has more than 250 members.
Its main role is to foster the application of system dynamics to the study
of the dynamics of health systems and health-related areas. We hope to
deploy useful models and education material that will assist SD, other
computational modelers and health professionals to apply systems
thinking and modeling to improve health decisions, at the design,
planning, management, clinical and consumer level.
Our major activities are a Sunday Special Session at the ISD Conference,
circulating Snippets and a wiki and new Discussion forum
http://www.systemdynamics.org/forum/index.php as part of the SD
Society activites. There is also the Lupina Prize for student papers about
health dynamics.
148 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Chapter & SIG Poster Presentations
Peter Otto
ottop@ union.edu
Union Graduate College
410 Terrace Road
Schenectady NY 12306
USA
Evangelos Katsamakas
katsamakas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University
113 West 60th Street
School of Business 6th floor
New Y ork NY 10023
USA
Oleg V. Pavlov
opavlov@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Leonard A. Malczynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Mail Stop 0735
Albuquerque NM 87123-1350 USA
Edward G. Anderson
edward.anderson@ mecombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas
McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Station B6500
Austin TX 78712 USA
Habib Sedehi
habib.sedehi@ uniromal.it
University of Rome
La Sapienza
Via Rubra 246
00188 Rome
Ttaly
Akira Uchino
uchino@ isc.senshu-u.ac.jp
School of Commerce, Senshu University
2-1-1 Higashimita Tamaku
Kawasaki 214-8580
Japan
Information Science and Information Systems
Special Interest Group Poster Presentation
The Information Science and Information Systems Special Interest
Group (iSIG) was created with the objective of advancing the application
of system dynamics to information science and information systems
related problems. iSIG is oriented to encourage research, networking and
advocacy within the system dynamics community and in other academic
and professional communities that focus on information science and
information systems research and practice. Members of iSIG have been
involved in a virtual conversation about an interchange language
definition (X MILE or Model Interchange Format) to be able to translate
models between simulation software. This year the iSIG round table will
promote a conversation about the current status of Information Science
and Information Systems research supported by System Dynamics.
Inter- and Intranational C onflict
Special Interest Group Poster Presentation
Recent activities from the SIG: papers, conferences, presentations.
SY stem Dynamics Italian Chapter (SY DIC)
Poster Presentation
SY stem Dynamics Italian Chapter (SY DIC) Annual Report will describe
the activities, both in accademic and consulting/enterprise area,
developed from July 2008 to June 2009 by members of the Chapter.
Japan Chapter
Poster Presentation
System Dynamics history in Japan commenced in 1960s; several
textbooks of Industrial Dynamics were published in those days. After
that, many researchers used System Dynamics in their own field
individually for about 30 years. Thereafter, System Dynamics
researchers gathered and founded Japan Chapter of International System
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 149
Chapter & SIG Poster Presentations
Gloria Pérez Salazar
gloria perez@ itesm.mx
Tecnologico de Monterrey
Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
Av Eugenio Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL
Mexico
Jill H. Slinger
j.h.slinger@ tbm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5
2628 BX Delft
Netherlands
Dynamics Society in 1990. Since then, Japan Chapter held The
Intemational System Dynamics Conference 1995 hosted by Gakushuin
University in Tokyo. The chapter members assembled their best minds
and finished it successfully. In 2006, Japan Chapter had over one
hundred chapter members. As Research activities, Japan Chapter
publishes an annual journal and holds regular research meetings and
symposiums. In 2007, we held three research meetings including one
conference. In particular, the conference was the most important events
not only for the chapter but also for the public. The recent theme of the
public symposium is “Intemal Control and System Dynamics” The
conference had many participants including public people. We always
welcome System Dynamics members or users who visit Japan. Several
System Dynamics researchers have already had meetings hosted by
Japan Chapter. Contact with our office is greatly appreciated.
Latin America Chapter
Poster Presentation
The Latinamerican Chapter has the mission to help the SD-community
grow in the Spanish speaking countries. Founded in 2003, it has
Latinamerican members from Mexico to Chile, from Spain and a
growing number of Spanish speakers living in other countries. Since
2003, the annual meeting allows practitioners to gather and newcomers
to get in to touch; we have been in Mexico, Chile, Colombia and
Argentina so far. Since 2005, the Spanish “Revista de Dinamica de
Sistemas” publishes two numbers per year. The “sisTEMAS” newsletter
and a mail list allow keeping in touch. During October, the 6th
Latinamerican Conference took place in Santiago de Chile, organized by
University of Talca, Adolfo Ibafez University, Diego Portales
University and Andrés Bello University. The next Latinamerican
conference will take place in Santa Marta Colombia during October
2009. If you would like to join us please contact Gloria Perez Salazar
(gloria.perez@ itesm.mx), Isaac Dyner (idyner@ unalmed.edu.co) or
Martin Schaffernicht (martin@ utalca.cl).
Special Interest Group on Model Analysis
(SIG-MA) Poster Presentation
The Special Interest Group on Model Analysis (SIG-MA) focuses on the
development, use and advancement of formal model analysis methods in
System Dynamics. These methods currently include: Pathway
Participation Metric, Ford’s Behavioural Analysis and Eigenstructure-
based methods, amongst others. The focus of this group is not so much
on the validity of model equations as, given the equations, how can they
best be analyzed and interpreted hack to reality. The activities of SIG-
MA include facilitating communication amongst model analysts by
moderated listserve discussions. These focus on theoretical
developments as well as improving the means of communication of
analysis results. We are expanding our activities to the further
development of tools for model analysis and clear communication of
150 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Chapter & SIG Poster Presentations
Seema Arif
drarif00@ yahoo.com
University of Central Punjab
461-G3 Johar Town
Lahore 54600
Pakistan
Ijaz Yusuf
ijaz_y@ hotmail.com
Quality Circle Institute
Suite No 7 3rd Floor Gulshan Plaza
Opposite Karim Buksh Near Moon Market
Allama Iqbal Town Lahore
Pakistan
David W. Lounsbury
dlounsbu@ aecom.yu.edu
Einstein College of Medicine, Y eshiva
1300 Mormis Park Avenue
Belfer 1302F
Bronx NY 10461
SA
Ralph L. Levine
leviner@ msu.edu
Michigan State University
1954 Riveria Drive
East Lansing MI 48823
USA
their use (and benefits) in applications. The SIG-MA is open to all
system dynamicists interested in formal analysis. Please contact Jill
Slinger (j-h.slinger@ tudelft.nl) to join our listserve
(sdsigma@listserv.tudelft.nl).
Pakistan C hapter
Poster Presentation
Pakistan Chapter is a small community comprising 15 members. It was
founded in 2005 and since then it has been working to promote SD
thinking and practice among the students, practitioners and the academia.
An SD course was started at University of Management and Technology,
Lahore, Pakistan, which had an enrolment of 20 students. Basics of
System Dynamics methodology and simul. were
introduced to the students through the SD course. A meeting with the
faculty was arranged with Dr. Khalid Saeed as he was visiting Pakistan.
The purpose of the meeting was to 1) introduce concepts and
applications of the System Dynamics; and 2) invite more faculty and
academia to contribute to the development of a community of system
dynamics researches and practitioners. Two papers were contributed in
Intemational conferences last year, one in Pakistan and the other in
Dubai. The same is intended this year. In future the Pakistan Chapter
looks forward to translate books in Urdu as well as publish some basic
books to introduce system dynamics to students as well as the public.
The publi will include ions from Pak members of the
System Dynamics international community. We also intend to develop
website for System Dynamics.
Psychology Special Interest Group
Poster Presentation
The Psychology SIG is a venue for discourse and learning about ways of
integrating psychological processes into system dynamics models and to
apply system dynamics methodology to the formation of psychological
theories. Currently there are approximately 40 members. With respect to
the development and application of system dynamics modeling,
members share the following aims: (1) Include psychological and social
constructs and processes in more classical system dynamics models,
where such constructs and processes would help in understanding the
underlying dynamic problem of interest; (2) Develop new molecules or
mini-models of psychological processes to promote deeper
ing of existing psych ial and behavioral theories and to
generate new theories of psychosocial and behavioral dynamics; (3)
Apply system dynamics modeling to a wide range of clinical problems to
improve individual and family therapies, group interventions, dyadic
interaction analyses. For more information about the Psychology SIG,
please visit our WikiSD:Psychology:
http://systemdynamics.org/wiki/index.php/W ikiSD :Psychology.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 151
Chapter & SIG Poster Presentations
Bayram Annakov
bayram.annakov@ gmail.com
Empatika
Profsoyuznaya Str Bldg 55 Flat 59
Moscow
Russia
Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegi@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia
Spain
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose.j.gonzalez@ uia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway
Christian W eitert
cweitert@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
University of Mannheim
Schloss Industrieseminar
68131 Mannheim
Germany
Russian Chapter
Poster Presentation
This poster summarizes all SD-related activities held in Russia by
Russian Chapter of SDS. The poster will consist of the following
sections: 1. System dynamics in Education 2. Systems thinking and
system dynamics application to solving real-world problems 3. What is
planned for next year.
Security Special Interest Group
Poster Presentation
Security is a broad field that affects to several systems. However,
Security presents some common features in all these systems: It is a
system that evolves over time, including technical and social variables.
These characteristics make System Dynamics a very powerful
methodology for its analysis and research. The incipient Special Interest
Group on Security is still immature, but has already provided its first
promising results, through the edition of several collaborative papers and
project proposals. Some researchers from this group will also develop a
projecta about crisis in European energy sector during 2009 an 2010.
Student Chapter
Poster Presentation
The Student Chapter of the System Dynamics Society aims at building a
network of Ph.D. students who are interested in system dynamics, and
the chapter tries to enable fruitful discussions within this network. The
objective is to foster the exchange of ideas among new and more
advanced students and provide help with concerns and questions
regarding students’ research. During the past nine years, the Student
Chapter organized the Ph.D. Colloquium at the International System
Dynamics Conference. On the Sunday before the conference, students
have the opportunity to present the current state of their work and
receive feedback from other students, practitioners, and professors in a
constructive and pleasant atmosphere.
152 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Chapter & SIG Poster Presentations
Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de
University of St. Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
9000 St Gallen Switzerland
Thomas Beck
thomas.beckl @ bluewin.ch
Swiss Re
Zurlindenstrasse 50
CH-8003 Zurich Switzerland
Brian C. Dangerfield
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford
Salford Business School CORAS
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford M5 4WT
UK
Christina Spencer
christina@ strategydynamics.com
Global Strategy Dynamics Ltd
PO Box 314
Princes Risborough Bucks HP27 0XB
UK
Swiss Chapter
Poster Presentation
The Swiss Chapter of the System Dynamics Society consists of
researchers, educators, consultants, and practitioners in corporate and
public sectors. Approximately 140 people receive our e-mails and about
twenty of them are full members who pay the membership fee. The
number of participants in chapter meetings is relatively constant at
around ten. Additional activities involve enhancing consulting
and educational Chapter meetings are organized
where we usually combine a presentation about System Dynamics in
action with the discussion of organizational, chapter-related issues. In
addition, the Swiss Chapter organizes several PhD round tables each
year at different locations. At these meetings, PhD students of
Switzerland who apply System Dynamics and related disciplines in their
research have the opportunity to present and discuss their projects and
obtain feedback from senior researchers and peers. With such a structure,
we try to maximize the benefits for our chapter members. The value
added by the Chapter's activities lies in the provision of networking,
learning and exchange opportunities.
United Kingdom Chapter
Poster Presentation
The UK Chapter have regular meetings in the UK and annually at the
international conference venue. (See www. systemdynamics.org.uk) This
year we held our 11th Annual Gathering at London South Bank
University. Co-hosted with the SD + Study Group of the UK OR Society,
it proved a great success (53 attendees). The theme was “System
Dynamics: the client perspective”. The first aftemoon consisted of
presentations with clients there to offer their views on SD as a method of
policy analysis. The organisations involved were the Refrigeration
Corporation of Cleveland (Ohio), Bristol Water and the Ministry of
Justice. A buffet dinner followed in the evening. We held our 2nd PhD
Colloquium on the following moming with a number of student poster
presentations. Our evening networking events have continued. These are
an informal means of renewing acquaintances as well as meeting new
faces. This Spring we are planning one outside of London in the NW of
England. If you are based in the UK and not already on our membership
list (membership is free) then please do join us and see what we have to
offer. There are between 80 and 100 members active in SD in the UK.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 153
Workshops and Workshop Series
Individual Workshops
Michael Bean
mbean@ forio.com
Forio Business Simulations
400 Spear Street #120
San Francisco CA 94105
USA
John Sterman
jsterman@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142
USA
Michael Bean
mbean@ forio.com
Forio Business Simulations
400 Spear Street #120
San Francisco CA 94105
SA
Andrei Borshchev
andrei@ xjtek.com
XJ Technologies
49 Nepokorennykh Ave Office 410
St Petersburg 195220
Russia
Timofey Popkov
tim@ xjtek.com
XJ Technologies
49 Nepokorennykh Ave Office 410
St Petersburg 195220
Russian Federation
Online Industry Case Simulations from the MIT
Sloan School of Management
The MIT Sloan School of Management is launching a series of
competitive web simulations game designed to be used at universities
and by individuals around the world. The simulations will be provided
by MIT Sloan at no charge to any universities, students, or faculty as part
of MIT Sloan Teaching Innovation Resources (MSTIR) program. These
industry evolution simulators portray the growth and competition of
firms as industries evolve and can represent a variety of different
industries. This workshop will provide participants who bring their wifi-
enabled laptops with the opportunity to run two of the simulations in this
series. Professor John Sterman of the MIT Sloan School of Management,
assisted by Michael Bean from Forio Business Simulations facilitate the
play of the simulators and discuss how these simulation and user
interfaces were developed, what the design challenges were, and what
the process for building the simulation was.
How to Easily Get Y our Vensim, Powersim, or
iThink simulation on the Web using Forio
Forio has a new product that allows modelers to create simulations on
the Web with no programming or HTML. These tools have made
creating web interfaces to system dynamics models simpler and
inexpensive. During this workshop, Michael Bean will demonstrate how
to create web simulations, discuss commonly occurring web simulation
design challenges and potential solutions, and show examples of web
simulations that have been used by thousands of users. Michael will also
provide a series of guidelines for creating simulations online. After the
workshop, participants will have the tools and information they need to
put there own simulations online.
Getting Started With A nyL ogic Software
During this workshop we will introduce AnyLogic - a multi-method
simulation tool supporting System Dynamics, Agent Based and Discrete
Event modeling. We will build an agent based model, a system dynamics
model and combine them into one. New features of AnyLogic 6.4 will
also be demonstrated; SD array editor, full-featured converter form
VenSim(TM), SD tools palette, view areas, and other. A CD with
AnyLogic trial version will be given to everybody. Y ou can bring your
laptop and follow the presenter, or just watch. AnyLogic workshops
usually include discussion on how Agent Based modeling is used in
practice.
154 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Workshops and Workshop Series
Joanne C. Egner
jegner@ iseesystems.com
isee systems inc
31 Old Etna Road Suite 7N
Lebanon NH 03766
Jeremy Merritt
jmerritt@ iseesystems.com
isee systems
31 Old Etna Road Suite 7N
Lebanon NH 03766
USA
Joanne C. Egner
jegner@ iseesystems,com
isee systems inc
31 Old Etna Road Suite 7N
Lebanon NH 03766
Karim J. Chichakly
kchichakly@ iseesystems.com
isee systems inc
31 Old Etna Road Suite 7N
Lebanon NH 03766
USA
Diana Fisher
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School
7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008
USA
Creating simulations for the web with iThink &
STELLA
This workshop is intended for new or current iThink and STELLA users
who want to share models online. Using iThink and STELLA,
participants will create a web interface to a model and publish it online
with the isee NetSim wizard - no HTML programming required! The
session will be conducted as a hands-on workshop and will include
guided instruction for creating an interface to a model, publishing
models online with isee NetSim and editing models that have already
been published. Participants are 1 to bring their own models
for publishing and sharing with others online. Please bring a computer
with STELLA oriThink Version 9.1 and isee NetSim installed or arrive
15 minutes early to install the software.
Getting Started with STELLA and iThink
This workshop will be an introduction to building and communicating
system dynamics models using STELLA or iThink software. The
workshop is intended for people who are relatively new to the field or do
not have experience using the current version of STELLA or iThink. The
session will be conducted as a hands on workshop and demonstrate basic
techniques for building, analyzing and communicating simple simulation
models. Participants should bring their own computers with STELLA or
iThink Version 9.1 installed or arrive 15 minutes early to install the
software.
Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First
Course
Modeling Dynamics Systems: Lessons for a First Course provides a set
of materials that enable educators at the secondary and college levels to
teach a one-semester or one-year course in System Dynamics modeling.
These lessons are also useful for trainers in a business environment. A
new chapter dealing with material and information delays will be
discussed. Developed for beginning modelers, the lessons contained in
this book can be used for a core curriculum or for independent study.
Systems thinking software like STELLA offers an opportunity to create
visual models that actively engage students in the study of a wide variety
of problems. Creating a model allows for real- time analysis of dynamic
behavior and a more stimulating environment in which to glean insight.
The lessons include some of the classic System Dynamics problems
(population change, resource inability, drug phan kinetic:
spread of an epidemic, urban growth, supply and demand, and more).
Developed over 16 years, the lessons in this book provide an easy-to-use
set of teaching materials that are paced gently enough for novice
modelers. Students learn to create progressively more sophisticated
models, testing their structures as they proceed. Feedback analysis is
integral to the lessons.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 155
Workshops and Workshop Series
Alan K. Graham
alan.k.graham@ alum.mit.edu
PA Consulting Group
68 Allen Street
Lexington MA 02421
USA
Michelle Henley
mrledet@ mfg-game.com
The Manufacturing Game
7702 FM 1960 East Suite 226
Humble TX 77346
USA
Winston P. Ledet
wpledet@ mfg-game.com
Ledet Enterprises, Inc.
7702 FM 1960 East Suite 226
Humble TX 77346
USA
Peter S. Hovmand
phovmand@ wustl.edu
How to Write a Good SD Paper
A full afternoon of lecture, discussion and exercises, evenly divided
between doing SD work that supports good papers, and paper-writing
heuristics. The intend audience is student and consultants, and the
material applies equally to thesis work and single paper publication. The
material is based on everything it took for the presenter to make the
transition from a not particularly gifted writer to someone with a
reasonable publications record, and never having had an article
submission turned down. (Except one, and we'll talk about it.) The
workshop gives quantitative guidelines where feasible to tell the writer
"what's likely to be good enough". The offering is a refinement of last
year's well-received workshop.
The Manufacturing Game
The Manufacturing Game is an interactive board game that stresses
defect elimination as a means to attain reliability of equipment and
processes. The game grew out of a System Dynamics model created at
DuPont in the 1980's.
Sharpening Soft Skills for Group Modeling
Workshop
Washington University in St Louis
George Warren Brown School of Social Work
One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196 It has often been noted in publications and at conference that as a field,
Saint Louis MO 63130 we could do more to increase our soft skills as modelers. Issues range
USA from working effectively with groups and being better listeners to
dealing more effectively with conflict and issues related to power
differences within groups and human diversity. While these issues are
arguably present in some way within every human interaction, they
become more pronounced when we focus on persistent social problems
and begin to work with more diverse and marginalized stakeholders.
Drawing on the diversity of participants attending the session, this
workshop aims to develop advanced skills for facilitating and managing
group conflicts. The workshop will be highly interactive and focused on
preparing and expanding the range of system dynamicists in working
with groups.
Rick Kossik
rkossik@ goldsim.com
GoldSim Technology Group
300 NE Gilman Blvd Suite 100
Issaquah WA 98027
USA
Getting Started with Goldsim
This workshop will be an introduction to building simulation models
using GoldSim. GoldSim differs from traditional system dynamics
approaches in that 1) it puts much greater emphasis on probabilistic
i hni to support ion of uncertain and/or
stochastic systems; and 2) it provides a wide variety of specialized model
156 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Workshops and Workshop Series
Leonard A. Malezynski
lamalez@sandia. gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Mail Stop 0735
Albuquerque NM 87123-1350
USA
Imrana A. Umar
imrana.umar@powersimsolutions.com
Powersim Solutions
585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon VA 20170
USA
Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
imartinez@anl.gov
Argonne National Laboratory
9700 $ Cass Ave Bldg 900 DIS.
Argonne IL 60439
USA
James Melhuish
jamesmethuis@gmail.com
BAE Systems
82 Harvard Street
Newtonville MA 02460-2232
USA
objects (beyond stocks, flows and converters) in order to make models
less abstract (and hence more transparent) and help represent processes
and events that cannot easily be represented using a traditional system
dynamics approach. The workshop is intended for people who do not
have experience using GoldSim. The session will be conducted as a
hands-on workshop and will demonstrate basic techniques for building
simple simulation models. The key differences between GoldSim and
traditional SD tools will be illustrated. GoldSim’s capabilities for
modeling stochastic and uncertain systems, and for superimposing
discrete events on i systems will be Participants
should bring their own p and are to an
evaluation version of GoldSim prior to the workshop. Otherwise, they
must show up one half hour early to load the software. The workshop
will be of value even if you only watch without a computer.
Getting Started with Powersim Studio Software
The workshop will introduce beginners to Powersim Studio. It will begin
with preparing the Studio model environment and end with a simple but
working model. It will also introduce beginning modelers to sources of
information within the Studio modeling community.
System Dynamics Model Documentation Tool
(SDM-Doc)
The System Dynamics Model Documentation Tool (SDM-Doc)
developed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) creates HTML-based
documentation of models created with Vensim. The model
documentation created by the SDM-Doc tool allows modelers to
navigate through model equations in a very efficient and practical way.
This tool was created expanding on Oliva's (2002) work on HTML
model documentation. The tool will be presented using several examples
of how to use it.
Learning with Memorable Dynamic
Experiments and Real Data
This workshop teaches the art of creating dynamic experiments that
involve an audience, and translating those experiments into working
simulation models. The dynamic experiment is brief, exciting,
memorable, and involves workshop participants. Behavior data is
captured “real time” for later use. The audience discusses their
observations of the experiment and their understanding of the data. A
dynamic hypothesis is elicited from the audience and a simulation model
created “on the spot” with help from participants to reproduce the
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 157
Workshops and Workshop Series
Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6
5020 Bergen
Norway
Dennis Powell
drpowell@ lanl.gov
Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663, MS F609
Los Alamos NM 87545
USA
Rene LeClaire
yil@lanl.gov
Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663 Mail Stop F604
Los Alamos NM 87545
USA
Aldo Zagonel
aazagon@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137
USA
Kim D. Warren
kwarren@ london.edu
London Business School
Two Farthings Aylesbury Rd
Monks Risborough BUCKS HP27 0JS
England
observed dynamics. The motivation is to remove the mystery of
simulation from people who have not (themselves) created simulation
models. We want to involve people in experimentation and simulation,
instead of having “dry” uninvolving presentations about modeling.
Optimization under uncertainty in SD models
People have difficulties making good decisions in the presence of
uncertainty and in nonlinear dynamic systems. When these challenges
are combined, decision problems get even worse. The workshop gives an
introduction to optimization under uncertainty in such systems. This is
normally a very complex undertaking. However, it has been greatly
simplified by the new software SOPS from Powersim Software. A fter
the introduction, participants get hands-on experience with SOPS.
Modular Programming in System Dynamics
This workshop will lay the foundation for effective modular system
dynamics model development and use. Programming in modules is
standard practice for modem computer languages. System dynamics
embraces the notion of molecules of exemplar code formulation, but
such code fragments are fundamentally different from modules. Modules
separate domains and encapsulate the module operations. They offer
interfaces to other modules and promote code reuse, a powerful
productivity multiplier. Conventional system dynamics models are
typically complex, dense, with intertwined domain elements. They can
be difficult to maintain and often hard to understand by any but the
original developer. This workshop will provide methods and tools to
alleviate these issues via adoption of modular software development
practices. The workshop is presented in two sessions. In the first,
participants will leam techniques for modularization, and the underlying
prerequisites. In the second session, advanced applications that
emphasize statistical analysis of models will be discussed and
demonstrated. While the examples and tools demonstrated in the
workshop are specific to Vensim®, the concepts are generic and can be
applied to any system dynamics language. Participants will receive a
courtesy copy of the “Conductor” tool, especially developed to automate
this approach. This workshop is appropriate for experienced system
developers familiar with Vensim®.
Fun Learning with the World Football
Challenge Team Game
Groups of 3-4 people compete in a new competitive paper-based game
that gives a fun introduction to some system dynamics principles. Teams
manage the strategy over 8-12 years of major football clubs, such as
Manchester United and Real Madrid competing in a fantasy world
league. Good strategy develops a team of the right size and experience,
and with good morale and team cohesion, and this leads to both success
in the competition and growing financial capital.
158 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Workshops and Workshop Series
J. Chris White
jewhite@ viasimcorp.com
viaSim
519 Interstate 30 #247
Rockwall TX 75087
Robert Sholtes
rsholtes@ simblox.com
SimBLOX LLC
The Beer Game on Steroids: Do You Have What
It Takes to Fix This Mess?
We have a massive supply chain in a heap of trouble. Do you have what
it takes to fix it? Participants will be broken into small teams, each with
their own copy of the supply chain simulation to manipulate. Teams will
compete against each other and against the "optimized" solution to see
who has the best approach. So bring your A game. This is similar to the
popular Beer Game, but greatly expanded. Knowledge of the lessons of
the Beer Game is helpful, but not required. Plan to have fun. Don't come
if you're a whiner.
Education Workshop Series
Lees N. Stuntz Masterful Classes K- Graduate
stuntzin@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange SUMMARY
27 Central Street
Acton MA 01720
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 318 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222
Tracy Benson
Lbenson@ watersfoundation.org
Waters Foundation
6420 E Broadway Blvd
Suite A100 Pima Regional Support Ctr
Tuscon AZ 85710
SA
Anne LaVigne
a.lavigne@ watersfoundation.org
Pima County Regional Support Center
Waters Foundation
6420 E Broadway Blvd Suite A-100
Tucson AZ 85710
The Masterful Classes K- Graduate is a series of six one-hour
workshops. Morning workshops include the first three out of six
workshops highlighting examples of good teachers presenting system
dynamics lessons from early elementary school through high school
school. The teachers in this session are all K-12 educators experienced in
the use of system dynamics in the classroom. (1): How 6-year olds lean
System Dynamics ABCs; (2): Stocks and Flows in the Middle School
Classroom; (3): Models for Use in Advanced Algebra: Lessons on Drug
Dynamics. Afternoon workshops include presentations by three
professional system dynamicists who have thought a great deal about
teaching in the field and who have been recognized by students and
colleagues as master teachers. Topics will feature describing the power
of interdisciplinary modeling using system dynamics; exploring the joys
of tiny concept models; and focusing on urban dynamics. The aim of
each of the three afternoon sessions is a self-contained class teaching
something interesting and useful about the real world and something
interesting and useful about modeling skills and the system dynamics
approach.
K-12 (1): How 6-year olds learn System
Dynamics ABC's (Accumulations, Behavior-
over-time, Circular C ausality)
Workshop participants will experience primary school (ages 6 through 8)
lessons designed to teach some of the basics of system dynamics. The
lessons will be taught using hands-on techniques, visual tools and
computer modeling. Student work, classroom video clips and testimonies
from guest elementary teachers will be used to illustrate how students
respond to the lesson. The workshop will conclude with a whole group
discussion driven by lessons leamed from teaching system dynamics to
young children. The workshop will be one hour long.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 159
Workshops and Workshop Series
Rob Drsiien K-12 (2): Stocks and Flows in the Middle School
quaden@ aol.com
Carlisle Public Schools Classroom
6 McIntosh Road
Chelmsford MA 01824 Workshop participants will engage in hands-on activities that the
USA presenters use in fifth and eighth grade classrooms. The activities help
Alan Ticotsky students become familiar with system dynamics principles and
ticotsky@ ren.com applications through active and entertaining games and simulations. The
Carlisle Public Schools presenters are co-authors of the two book series "The Shape of Change"
11 Mason Street and several articles available on the Creative Leaming Exchange
Lexington MA 02421 website. One hour long.
USA
Diana Fisher K-12 (3): Models for Use in Advanced Algebra:
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School . . . . E F
7405 SW Cresmoor Drive Advanced Algebra is a course ripe with topics for modeling experiments.
Beaverton OR 97008 Those functions that tend to work well using the STELLA software are
USA linear, exponential, quadratic, and sinusoidal. Starting with just linear
and exponential functions, which are usually covered in the first
semester of an advanced algebra class, an interesting application, the
study of drug dynamics, is easily within the reach of all students, by mid-
year. The lessons start with just exponential functions but become more
interesting when both linear and exponential model segments are
combined to model different drug dynamics. I make it clear to the
students from the beginning that we will study therapeutic drugs, such as
antibiotics or aspirin, so they (and their parents) do not misinterpret the
lessons. The set of models that will be presented have been used in a
high school math class, but could easily apply to a health or biology
class. Participants should bring a laptop computer, if possible, so they
can build the models the students build, during the workshop. A CD with
a workshop version of the STELLA software will be provided, as will
the first lesson handout used with students. This workshop will be one
hour long.
George P. Richardson Masterful Classes - Graduate
ay ara aig (three one-hour workshops)
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 318 Rockefeller College This workshop will be presented by three professional system
Albany NY 12222 dynamicists who have thought a great deal about teaching in the field
USA and who have been recognized by students and colleagues as master
Andrew Ford teachers. The aim of each of the three sessions in this workshop is a self-
forda@ mail.wsu.edu contained class teaching something interesting and useful about the real
Washington State University world and something interesting and useful about modeling skills and the
Environmental Science system dynamics approach. The teachers will strive to make these
PO Box 644430 “masterful classes.” Andy Ford from Washington State University will
Bullmen: WA 99164-4430 describe the power of interdisciplinary modeling using system dynamics.
The talk begins with stories from the work on boom towns in the west
and on electric utility problems during the 1970s-80s, and moves to a
160 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Workshops and Workshop Series
J. Bradley Morrison
bmorriso@ brandeis.edu
Brandeis University
19 Fox Run Road
Bedford MA 01730
A
classroom example on salmon populations of the Columbia and Snake
Rivers. Brad Morrison from Brandeis International Business School will
explore the joys of tiny concept models. Beginning with
conceptualization and continuing to formulation, we will interactively
develop and then analyze a tiny model. George Richardson from the
University at Albany will present a class focusing on urban dynamics,
interactively developing a small model in which the classic urban
dynamics pattern emerges naturally, almost magically.
STEM Workshop Series
Michael Richey Creating an Open Innovation Network to
michael.c.richey@ boeing.com y
The Boeing Company. Address Key STEM Education and Workforce
Christopher Roe Issues
chris.roe@ bhef.com
Business- Higher Education Forum
2025 M Street NW Suite 800
Washington DC 20036
USA
Hernando A lex Sanchez
alex_sanchez@ raytheon.com
Raytheon
18 Piedmont St
Boston MA 02116
USA
Dan Sturtevant
dsturtev@ mit.edu
MIT
231 Norfolk Street #6
Cambridge MA 02139
Participants will learn about and provide feedback on a unique effort to
create an open innovation network around system dynamics models of
science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education.
Presenters will discuss ongoing activities to establish the STEM
Research & Modeling Network (SRMN) a diverse group of researchers,
modelers, policy makers, educators, and funders that has begun to
coalesce around the use of modeling. The workshop will first offer
participants and authors of the various models presented in the previous
two workshops an opportunity to discuss how learnings from any one of
the models might suggest improvements to any other of the models. At
least one-third of the workshop will be devoted to engaging participants
ina discussion of the challenges and opportunities related to creating and
sustaining the SRMN as it works to improve and make its models more
useful to the national policy debate. A critical aspect of this workshop
will be a participatory discussion of the configuration management
processes that will be implemented as members of the SRMN propose
changes to the model. And finally, the participants will learn how they
can become involved in the SRMN, and will be asked to suggest
strategies for involving more members of the modeling community.
Exploring Models of Science, Technology,
Mathematics, and Engineering (STEM)
Education in the United States - Part A
Participants in this workshop will engage in a guided exploration of two
system dynamics models related to science, technology, engineering and
mathematics (STEM) education in the United States. The first model,
developed by Raytheon systems engineers, explores potential ways to
increase the number of college graduates and teachers in the STEM
disciplines. The second model, developed by Dan Sturtevant for his
Master's thesis at MIT, explores the causes of the nearly twenty-five year
decline in the of U.S. bom earning degrees in
engineering. A fter a brief intensive introduction to the two models, the
participant will engage in exploring how these models can help to
evaluate altemative policies for improving the US education system. At
least one-third of the workshop will be devoted to interactive learning
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 161
Workshops and Workshop Series
Andjelka Kelic
sly@ mitedu
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA
Aldo Zagonel
aazagon@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137
J. Chris White
jewhite@ viasimcorp.com
viaSim.
519 Interstate 30 #247
Rockwall TX 75087
USA
Paul Newton
paul.c.newton2@ boeing.com
The Boeing Company
10718 Country Club Lane South
Seattle WA 98168
USA
Christopher Roe
chris.roe@ bhef.com
Business- Higher Education Forum
2025 M Street NW Suite 800
Washington DC 20036
USA
Kathryn D. Sullivan
sullivan.220@ osu.edu
Ohio State University
Battelle Ctr for Math & Sci Educ Pol
210 Page Hall 1810 College Road
Columbus OH 43210
USA
activities where the modelers discuss the constraints and challenges
modeling the U.S. education system and the participants share their
experience, knowledge and ideas to improve the models.
Exploring Models of Science, Technology,
Mathematics, and Engineering (STEM)
Education in the United States - Part B
Participants in this workshop will have the opportunity to engage in a
guided exploration of three system dynamics models related to science,
technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) education in the
United States. The purpose of the Sandia model is to explore the many
feedback loops influencing the attractiveness of a STEM career. The
purpose of the SimBlox model is to study the changing age
demographics of the Principal Investigator pool funded by the National
Institutes of Health. The purpose of the Boeing model is to represent the
dynamic hypothesis for the feared decline of both prosperity and the
engineering-scientific enterprise in the U.S., as discussed in the 2007
National Academies report Rising Above the Gathering Storm:
Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. At
least one-third of the workshop will be devoted to interactive learning
activities where the modelers discuss the constraints and challenges
modeling the U.S. education system and the participants share their
experience, knowledge and ideas to improve the models.
Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh Michael Richey
mohammad.mojtahedzadeh@boeing.com —_ michael.c.richey@ boeing.com
The Boeing Company The Boeing Company
PO Box 3707 MC4A-73
Seattle WA 98124-2207
STEM Education and Workforce C hallenges:
How Can System Dynamics Improve Key
Outcomes?
This workshop will engage participants in an exploration of the potential
use of system dynamics modeling to improve our understanding of key
STEM education and workforce challenges and to explore potential
policy solutions that can strengthen student outcomes in STEM
disciplines and careers. This workshop will begin with a facilitated
discussion among participants regarding the current state of STEM
education, future employment needs in STEM occupations, and ways to
improve student interest and proficiency in STEM disciplines and
careers. A panel of experts in education will then engage participants in a
discussion regarding how systems thinking and system dynamics
modeling could assist policymakers, leaders from business and industry
and educators in examining ways to increase the number of students who
are interested and proficient in STEM disciplines and careers.
Participants will be asked to identify a range of modeling approaches
that might help address key challenges. At least one-third of the
workshop will be devoted to audience participation.
162 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Bonus Day Presentations
Stefano Armenia
stefano.armenia@ uniroma2.it
CATTID, Sapienza University of Rome
Via Pescosolido 168
00158 Rome Italy
Edoardo Mollona
emollona@ cs.unibo.it
Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Department of Computer Science
Mura Anteo Zamboni 7
40127 Bologna Italy
Habib Sedehi
habib.sedehi@ uniromal it
University of Rome
La Sapienza Via Rubra 246
00188 Rome Italy
Nicola P. Bianchi
bianchi@ ge.cnr.it
CNR-ISSIA
Via De Marini 6
Genova Italy
Andrea Marcello Bassi
ab@ millennium-institute.org
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650
Arlington VA 22201
Allyson Beall
abeall@ wsu.edu
Washington State University
344 NW Harrison St
Pullman WA 99163
USA
Andrew Ford
forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State Univ
Environmental Science
PO Box 644430
Pullman WA 99164-4430
USA
Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
silvia.ulli-beer@ psi.ch
PSI
Roethelweg 11
5303 Wuerenlingen
Switzerland
SY DIC, SY stem Dynamics Italian Chapter
SY DIC started a new path since the Nijmegen ISDC, also thanks to
innovative tools now available to members. A new website, newsletter,
forum, all have contributed to spread knowledge over the net about SD,
achieving the goal of raising new members. Practitioners, professionals
and academics can now find a way to discuss about common interests
and research. Moreover, being visible on the web with a sort of
"georeferenced" system, has provided the capability to attract newbies
close to our research or working areas. An SD-interested person can
infact access the website and "browse" the territory looking for
information on places where the SD-approach is used. The website has
been also used as a tool for e-democracy. Infact, the last SY DIC policy
council elections have been carried out by using a forum functionality
(survey) which made it possible to vote. So, the SY DIC session at the
ISDCO9 bonus-day will have the goal to let italian members spend some
time together to leam how to better use the new functionalities of the
website, and share knowledge and experiences so to build a wider
community. Also, it will be an occasion to discuss about the possibility
to constitute the SY DIC into a law-recognised institution.
Energy and Environmental Special Interest
Groups Meeting
The Environmental Special Interest Group and the Energy Special
Interest Group are hosting a semi- joint bonus day meeting. We will
begin our bonus day activity with two simultaneous sections, one
environmental, one energy. The format would include 1.5 hours for 6
presentations of people's current work, work they would like to do, or
who are perhaps looking for collaborators or feedback on project
development. The venue would be less formal than during the
conference to allow for more discussion and only requires an abstract for
consideration. We will then join the two SIGs together for a 1.5 hour
meeting to foster new ideas and collaborations in areas common to both
the environment and energy. Please send abstracts for the individual or
joint sessions to Luc Van Den Durpel, energy SIG vddurpel@listo.be
and Allyson Beall environmental SIG abeall@wsu.edu.
Luc Van Den Durpel
vddurpel@ listo.be
LISTO bvba
Groenstraat 35
9250 Waasmunster
Belgium
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 163
Bonus Day Presentations
Jeffrey Boyer
jboyer01@ nycap.rr.com
University at Albany
College of Nanoscale Science & Eng
257 Fuller Road
Albany NY 12203
USA
John Sterman
jsterman@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142
And Additional Team Members
Inculcating System Dynamics into a C orporate
Environment
Although system dynamics is a powerful tool for understanding many
aspects of business operations and strategy, anecdotal evidence suggests
corporations have been slow to recognize this value and resistant to
implementing it as part of their arsenal of problem-solving techniques.
Reasons for this are manifold, ranging from a lack of experience to a
perception that system dynamics is either "too technical" or "not
technical enough." The purpose of this workshop is to discuss
experiences and lessons leamed from successful - or unsuccessful -
integration of SD into a business. Presentations will address efforts at
introducing system dynamics into the corporate environment. The
processes used, the training, management expectations and follow-
through, and other relevant parameters and behaviors will be explored.
Follow-up discussions will be used to elucidate comparisons with the
experiences of other attendees. The outcome of this workshop may be a
summary of the lessons learned, which may be used to develop future
presentation threads or papers within the System Dynamics Society.
Copenhagen Climate Exercise
The Copenhagen Climate Exercise is a half day simulation-based role-
playing climate game that gives groups from 10-150 an experience of
reaching a global agreement to mitigate climate change. Set up as a
highly simplified "Copenhagen-2009-like" U.N. meeting, participants
play the role of delegates from India, China, the US, the EU, Brazil,
island nations, and others and work together to reach a global accord that
meets the group's goal for CO2 levels. The UN Secretary General
receives pledges from three different "blocs", asks his technical staff to
simulate them in the "C-ROADS" climate simulation, and informs
delegates of results, often sending them back for another round of
debate, strategizing, and collaboration. Overall, we've seen the
Copenhagen Climate Exercise help people quickly learn the policy-
relevant science of climate change, viscerally experience the
international dynamics, and succeed at crafting a solution to the
challenges, while taking a realistic look at the scale of changes ahead as
we shift to a low-carbon global economy. See a recent article in MIT's
Technology Review - http://www.technologyreview.com/article/21190/.
164 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Bonus Day Presentations
Leonard A. Malczynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Mail Stop 0735
Albuquerque NM 87123-1350 USA
Bill Braun
bbraun@ hithsys.com
Cleveland Clinic
3833 Kirkwood Road
Cleveland Heights OH 44121-1803 USA.
Jacob J. Jacobson
jacob jacobson@ inl.gov
Idaho National Laboratory
2525 N Fremont Avenue
Idaho Falls ID 83415-3710 USA
Imrana A. Umar
imrana.umar@ powersimsolutions.com
Powersim Solutions
585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon VA 20170 USA
Etiénne A.J. A. Rouwette
e.rouwette@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Etiénne A. J. A. Rouwette
e.rouwette@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Wouter J ongebreur
wouter jongebreur@ significant.nl
Significant BV
Thorbeckelaan 91
3771 ED Bameveld The Netherlands
Paul van Hooff
paul. van. hooff@ significant.nl
Significant B.V.
Mgr Westerwoudtlaau 19
3211 RW Noordioyberhout The Netherlands
Powersim Studio User Group
The Powersim Studio User Group Conference will be an opportunity for
the Studio user cc ity and invited ives from Powersim
AS and their regional representatives in Europe, Oceania, South and
North America, Asia and A frica to meet and share ideas and information.
The goal of the meeting is to learn to be better system dynamicists, aided
by Studio and to strengthen our user community. This opportunity will
include tutorials for novices and experts, paper presentations focusing on
Studio's unique capabilities and a chance to interact with Powersim AS
representatives concerning the company's vision for Studio. The tentative
agenda includes: a plenary presentation, novice and expert tutorials,
papers on Studio techniques, and hopefully a presentation on the future
of Studio. This is also an opportunity for the user community to interact
with Powersim AS representatives to express user concems and suggest
new features.
Participatory Approaches to Modeling and
Simulation
In this workshop the organizers will address a number of issues with
regard to participatory modeling. The meeting will start of with
addresses by key contributors to the literature, highlighting the state of
the art of participatory approaches and challenges for the future. The
addresses will be followed by a joint discussion on a research strategy
and collaborative research program.
Modeling in Public Policy
In this workshop the organizers will address a number of issues with
regard to participatory modeling. The meeting will start with addresses
by key contributors to the literature, highlighting the state of the art of
participatory approaches and challenges for the future. The addresses
will be followed by a joint discussion on a research strategy and
collaborative research program.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 165
Bonus Day Presentations
Lees N. Stuntz
stuntzln@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
27 Central Street
Acton MA 01720 USA
Tracy Benson
Lbenson@ watersfoundation.org
Waters Foundation
6420 E Broadway Blvd
Suite A100 Pima Regional Support Ctr
Tuscon AZ 85710 USA
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 318 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222 USA
Diana Fisher
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School
7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008 USA
David Wheat
dwheat@ wheatresources.com
University of Bergen
Nedre Fjellsmug 6
5018 Bergen
Norway
Kaoru Yamaguchi
kaoru3@ muratopia.org
Doshisha University
521 Minamidani Aihara
Goshiki-cho Sumoto Hyogo 656-1325
Japan
Utilizing System Dynamics Expertise in K-12
Education
This moming session will focus on the coordination between system
dynamics practitioners and K-12 schools. There will be an opportunity
for practitioners to brainstorm with teachers and K-12 education
professionals to devise plans to increase the availability of SD expertise
for our K-12 schools. The outcome of the session will be a plan to go
forward with specific tasks for the coming year to increase the contact
between K-12 and SD professionals. In the two months before the ISDC,
a small list will be set up to facilitate communication amongst the
participants so that the groundwork will be laid and the four hours can be
effectively utilized.
Economic Crisis Roundtable: Sharing Models of
Problems & Policies
We will have a full-day discussion of systemic explanations and policy
options. The models presented during the morning session will focus on
how the dynamic problem(s) developed, but will not include policy
proposals for alleviating the problematic behavior. During the moming
session, audience questions and discussion will be limited to clarifying
everyone's und ding of what the are saying. The
afternoon session, in contrast, will have have a policy focus. It will be
dominated by audience input, questions, and discussion aimed at
generating a list of policies that might alleviate the problematic behavior.
Of course, the moming presenters will have some new policy structure in
mind for their respective models, and they will also be active participants
in the afternoon session. The focus of the policy-oriented discussion will
be on "where" various policy ideas might "plug in" to the respective
models presented during the moming session; i.e., what kind of
structural changes would be required in order to add the proposed
policies to those models. It is expected that all participants will take
away useful economic modeling ideas. Moreover, we expect the forum
to generate a list of practical suggestions for economic policy-makers.
166 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Index
Authors, Presenters and Facilitators
Abaunza Osorio, Felipe
Abrishamchi, Ahmad
Ackermann, Fran.
Aghajani, Amin 113
Akbarpour, Mohi id 55
Alessi, Stephen 72
Aliasgari, 6
Alvarez, Ainara. 29
Anlin, Jeff 127
An, Lianjun 0
Andersen, David F... 0 30, 31, 54
Anderson, Edward G 31, 32, 112, 134, 138, 149
Andrade, Lorenzo TD.
Annakov, Bayram
Ansah, John Pastor.
Antonelli, G. 2
Arango, Santiago 3.
Arif, Seema.
Ammenia, Stefano............
Askari Tabatabaei, Mohamad Hosseii
Attridge, Joanne M. ...........
Azar, Pablo
B
Backus, George A.... soeeesnneenss 103, 127
Baker, Elisha i 5.
Ballenden, Chris 60
Balnac, Kailash 4
Bandala, Erick R. 0,
Bandlow, Alisa 74
Barlas, Y aman. ..35, 45, 90
34, 87, 135, 147, 163
:
Bayer, Steffen
Beall, Allyson...
Bean, Michael
Beck, Thomas 153
Benson, Tracy... ‘i 138, 159, 166
Bernard, Michael 6
Bianchi, Nicola P.
Bier, Asmeret
Bivona, Enzo
Black, LauraJ.......
35, 136, 147, 163
Inge L 37,50
Boettcher, Kevin .
Bog, Suat
Bokhoree, C!
, Andrei
Boudreau, Justin
Bouza, Manuel
Boyer, Jeffrey...
Brailsford, Sally
Braun, Bill
Brent, Alan C.
Brierley, Gary
Brunstein, Angela.
Bueno, Newton Paulo.
Bunger, Alicia
Bums, James R
Cc
Caicedo, Santiago
Castaneda Acevedo, Jaime Andres.
Cavalieri-D'Oro, Edoardo...
Cavana, Robert Y......... .
Ceresia, Francesco.
Chahal, Kirandeep
Chan, Shek Kiu
Chaudhari, Gaurav S.
Chavez, Regina K
Chen, Jian Hung
Chen, Yijen
Cheong, France
Chichakly, Karim J
Chikin, Lam
Choi, Eugene.
Chuang, Howard Hao-Chun...
Chumai, i
Clark, Thomas D.
Conrad, Gregory N.
Conrad, Stephen H.
Cooper, Lawton
Coser, Adriano ...........
Cox, Andrew
Cruz, Y esenia
Dai, Xin 44
Dai, Xingjie
Dangerfield, Brian C.......
61
soe 44, 94, 145, 153
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 167
Index of Authors, Presenters and Facilitators
Datta, Ravindra
Davidsen, Pal I.
Gastelum Reynoso, Gabriela G.
Geastaits, George A.
ee Michael A. Nicholas &.
, Prakash. G Navid.
penlteon Emre M. G Aref.
Derwisch, Sebastian
Di Giulio, Vincenzo
Diaz Pabon, Fabio Andrés
Dick, Marcel
Dierks, Meghan M.......
Gharibi, Mirmojtaba
Ghili, Soheil
Gil-Garcia, J. Ramon
Glass, Robert J. ....
Godbole, Saroj,
Goldsmith, Daniel
Doyle, James K
Dudley, Richard G
Duggan, David P...
Duggan, Jim
Duran Encalada, Jorge A...
Duran, Felicia A
Dutt, Varun
Dyer, James
Dykes, Katherine
Eberlein, Robert L. ....
Gonzalez, Cleotilde
Gonzalez, Jose J. ..
Goodwin, Andrew...
Graber-Lopez, Eric
Graham, Alan
Grasl, Oliver. 57
Greer, Don 37, 54
Groesser, Stefan N.. , 143, 153
GréBler, Andreas. . 57, 58, 115, 142
E Guevara, Porfirio, 78
Gimeralp, Burak 58
H
Hajiali Mona 59
Eldabi, Tillal
El-Tagy, Ahmed ..
Emberger, Guenter.
Hajro, Aida
Haller, Reinhard
Hansen, Jason K......
Emerson, C. Robert.
Erdil, Nadiye Ozlem...
Ted
Falsini, Diego.
Farhang Matin, Haleh
Farshchi, Mahtab
Feméndez Soto, Pedro
Fernéndez-Lechon, Ramon.
Fiddaman, Thomas ..
Firooz, Hamid
Fischer, Mathias Markus.
148
50, 144, 155, 160, 166
51
Fokkinga, Brigit. 50
Ford, Andrew .35, 50, 134, 160, 163
Ford, David N. 3, 134
Foroughi, Pouyan
Forouzan, Alireza
Frances, Carol...
Franck, Travi
Franco, Carlos Jaime. 51
Franco, Sebastian 52
hiro med
G
Galicia, Luis David 2
G Pascal J. 5
Gary, Shayne 98
ld: HordurV. 111
Harbich, Thoma: 84
Hasanpoor, Ali 68
Haslett, Tim 56, 60
Hassan, Junaid
Heffeman, Mark,
Held, E. Bruce.
Heng, Wenyu
Henley, Michelle
Herrera Daza, Sonia Cristi
Hirsch, Gary B
Ho, Y ufeng.
Homer, Jack B...... ...62, 130, 134, 141
I , 115
Houle, Brian 88
House, Jody 62
Hovmand, Peter S... 63, 104, 140, 156
Howick, Susan. 63
Howley, Enda 64,77
Hsueh, Joe Chiaojen 64
Huang, Jinjing.
Huang, Philip
Hwang, Sungjoo
Jacobs, Eric
Jacobson, Jacob J. ... a
Vishnu Vardhan 65
{em Tobias 66
Jain, Sanjay 70
Jalalian, 68
168 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Index of Authors, Presenters and Facilitators
Balaji 77
Ji, Sae-Hyun. 66
Joglekar, Nitin R. 31, 66
John, Klaus
Johnson, Curtis
Jones, Andrew
Lopez, Lui
Lounsbury, David W
Lowry, Thoma:
Loyo, Karina
Lu, Lianggang
Lubyansky, Alexander 79
Luna-Reyes, Luis F.
Lytchkina, Natalia N.
MacDonald, Roderick H.
, Leonard A...103, 134, 138, 140, 149, 157, 6S
Jones, Charles A. 67
fones Mary C. 43 Lyneis, James M.
Wouter. 165 Lyneis, John
K
Kaggwa, Martin 67
Kanter, Steven L. 56 Mabry, Patricia L.
Kapmeier, Florian 148 MacDonald, Rod.
Karanfil, Ozge
Karl, Ute 66
kK 54, 137, 149 Mandal, Abhijit
Kazemi, Reza 6i Martin, Nelson T. ..
Kelic, Andjelka
Kennel Michael S... e
hakiba 91
‘ibe Deogratia 70
Kidde, Saul 70
Kill , William R. 71
Kim, Gyu Rim 71
King, Alan 0
Koca, Deniz 111
K i, Golda Word
Kopainsky, Birgit.
Kortelainen, Samuli .
Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio
Mashayekhi, Ali Naghi
Matheus, Kirsten .
Mayerthaler, Ann
Mazanov, Jason
McCardle-Keurentjes, Marleen H. F.
McDonnell, Geoff...
McLean, Charles...
McLucas, Alan Charles 48
Meadows, Denni: 130
Medina-Borja, Alexandra 85
Medin-Molina, Joaquin...
Korzilius, Hubert 7 Mejia, Andres
K i, Klaus-Peter 121, 122 Mejia, Gonzalo
Kossik, Rick. 156
Koul, Saroj 73, 99
Kune, Martin H. 73
Kuzenski, Douglas , Stefania 45
Miller, David Ss. 64
Lattila, Lauri
Lauge, Ana.
LaVigne, Anne.
Lawrence, Frank
LeClaire, Rene
Ledet, Winston P. ....
Lee, Hyun-Soo
Lee, Man-Hyung.
Lee, Tsuey-Ping.
Lehr, Christian
Lei, Kampeng
Levine, Ralph L. ...
Li, Yikang,
Linard, Keith Thoma: 76
Lindquist, Eric
Liu, Cheng-Chih
Liu, Chin-Y en Alice
Liu, Hongl:
Liu, Sheng.
Lofdahl, Corey
Lopez Malo, Aurelio. 5
Milling, Peter M.
Milstein, Bobby.
Mohseni, Javan
Mohi id T 86, 131, 162
Mollona, Edoardo. 32, 163
Monus, Paul A
Moosavi Haghighi, M. Hashem..
Monson, J. Bradley...
Moschera, L.
Moxnes, Enling.....
Musango, Josephine Kaviti
N
Najafiyazdi, Mostafa 97
Nasr, Nikrooz
Newton, Paul...
Ngai, Tommy Ka K
Nguyen, Phuong Linh T:
Nilsen, Trond
Nozari, Hamed
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 169
Index of Authors, Presenters and Facilitators
0)
Ochoa, Maria Camila 51
Olaya, Yri
Oliva, Rogelio. 8
Oliveri, Giulia
Orenstein, Diane 62
Osgood, Nathaniel 89, 125
Otto, Peter. 90, 137, 9
Oyo, Benedict.
Ozgiin, Onur 5, a
P
Pala, Ozge 91, 132
Palou Garcia, Enrique 5
Park, Moonseo
Parker, Geoffrey ......
Parsons, Ken
Parvizian, Jamshid 29, 91
Pate, Ron. a1
Paucar-Caceres, Alberto ..
Pavlov, Oleg V....
Pedercini, Matteo
Rockart, Scott F.
Rodriguez Valbuena, Luisa Femanda
Roe, Chri:
Romme, George:
Rouwette, Etiénne A.J.A
Roy, K. R. Divakar..
Rush, Margaret
Ryder, William
Rydzak, Felicjan.
, Alexander V.
S
..38, 46, 101, 127, 132, 138, 141
1
Saeed, Khalid i
i Abdolrahim.
Salge, Marku:
Sanchez, Hernando Alex.....
Sandu, Corina,
Sardell, Jason
Sardiwal, Sangeeta
Sarriegi, Jose Mari ..
Sawicka, A gata,
Sawin, Elizabeth.
Schaffer, Walter... geod
Martin F. G. 102, 103, 142
Peipert, John
Pérez Salazar, Gloria.
Pierson, Kawika
Schmidt, Susanne
Schmitzer, Oliver .
William 103
Pioch, Nichola:
David 103
Poles, Roberto.
Popkov, Timofey
Schurer, Jennifer .....
a
Pourhabib, Arash ..
Pouris, Anastasio:
Powell, Denni:
Pruyt, Erik.
Pugh, Jack
Q
Quaden, Rob 160
Quigley, Michael 94
R
Radianti, Jaziar 95
Rafferty, Martin 95
Rahdari, Hossein 96
Hazhir 97, 114
Rahn, R. Joel 135
Atefe. 96, 97
Ramos Martins, Marcelo. 9;
Rao, Meesala Snnivasa...
Rasooli, Moh
Thanujan
Reilly, Michael
Rezhdo, Oljora
Rich, Eliot 95, 143
Richardson, George P.
30, 31, 128, 159, 160, 166
31, 161, 162
wold
Rocha dos Santos, Joaquim 9
Sedehi, Habib...
Seidel, Andrew
Senge, Peter M.
Severyn, Tim
. s.
Shakouri, Hamed
Shaoqi, Zhou
Sheth, Arpan
Sholtes, Robert
Simon, Martin
Sin Oih Yu, Abraham
Sipowicz, Maria
Skarin, Bruce.
Skaza, Heather.
Skorinko, Jeanine
Skribans, Valerijs
Slinger, Jill H. ..
Sotowiej, Dominik ..
Soltani, Leila
Soneji, Hitesh
Soni, Sanjay
Sotaquirs, Ricardo
Soto-Torres, M. Dolores.
Spencer, Christina
Spencer, Roberta L.
Stave, Krystyna A.
Sterman, John.......
wel
94, 106, 140, 150
"105, 107, 112
“64, 81, 107, 129, 154, 164
170 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Index of Authors, Presenters and Facilitators
Steyn, Jasper L 67
Stiens, Eric. 108
i Margaret V 108
Jiirgen 109, 148
Stuntz, Lees N..
Sturges, Robert H.
Sturtevant, Dan.....
D
Subroto, Athor.
Sullivan, Kathryn D.
Sveen, Finn Olav ..
Svensson, Mats G.
Sverdrup, Harald
Tabacaru, Mihaela....... Be
Taheri, Hossein 114
Tan, Burcu
Tavazoei, Masoud
Taylor, Robert.
Taylor, Timothy R. B......
Teekasap, Pard
Tehrani, Nasim ....
Thissen, Wil A
Ticotsky, Alan
Tignor, Warren W.....
Torres, José M.
Triantis, Kosta:
Trogdon, Justin
Tromboni Paulo 98
Tseng, Y a-tsai
Tulinayo, Fiona Penlope i
Tumer, Marcia 107
U
Uchino, Akira 149
Ullah, Aman 2
Ulli-Beer, Silvia Astrid 8, 163
Umadevi, Ganesan 65
Umar, Imrana A 157, 165
Uriona Maldonado, Mauricio. 115
Vv
Vakilian, Shirin. 113
van Bommel, Patrick 115
van Daalen, Comelia. 5
van den Belt, Marjan
Van Den Durpel, Luc.
van Hooff, Paul
W
Walker, Keny. 60
Walrave, Bob 117
Wan, Maoyan 119
Wang, Chin-Hsueh 75
Wang, Chun-Chieh 118
Wang, Hsiao-Li
Wang, Hsien-Chi
Wang, Majie.
Wang, Wei Yang..
Wang, Wei-Tsong...
Wang, Wenxin. 118, 119
Wang, Yichun .
Warhoe, Stephen ..
Weitert, Christian
Wells, Brian
Wheat, David ..
White, Chris A
White, J. Chris.
Wiik, Johannes
Wile, Kristina
Williams, Ddembe W......
Williams, Helena
Winz, Ines
Wu, Yi-Yen
xX
Xiao, Jing-hua 44
Xie, Kang 44
Y
Yadma, Gautam N..
Yamaguchi, Kaoru ..
Yan, Min-Ren.
Y earworth, Mike.
Yiicel, Gonenc.
Yusuf, Vai
Yvon-Lewis, Shari
Zagonel, Aldo...
69, 83, 91, 134, 158, 162
4
16, 117
116
van Oorschot, Ki
van W hove,
Vaneman, Warren
Varvakis, Gregori
Vennix, Jac A. M.
Verschuren, Piet.
Vidal, Elena 9
Zainal Abidin, Norhaslinda
i Mehdi
Amin. 96
Zhang, Lei
Zhang, Qian
Zimmermann, Nicole ..
Zmud, Robert W..
Zock, Alexander.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 171
System
Dynamics
Society
July 26 - 30, 2009
Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
proceedings sp d by:
NA Homeland
WZ Security
Science and Technology
www dhs.gov/scienceandtechnology
Conference Partner:
The Boeing Company
Conference Host Organization:
Sandia National Laboratories
Conference Co-host Institutions:
Argonne National Laboratory
Idaho National Laboratory
Paul Scherrer Institut
Edited by:
Andrew Ford, David N. Ford, and Edward G. Anderson
Production Team:
Robin S. Langer, LouA nne Lundgren,
Erin R. Sheehan and Joan M. Y anni
Proceedings
of the
27" International Conference
of the
System Dynamics Society
Proceedings
of the
27" International Conference
of the
System Dynamics Society
July 26 - 30, 2009
Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
Edited by:
Andrew Ford, David N. Ford and Edward G. Anderson
Production Team:
Robin S. Langer, LouA nne Lundgren,
Erin R. Sheehan and Joan M. Y anni
System
Dynamics
Society
©2009, The System Dynamics Society
ISBN 978-1-935056-02-7
To obtain additional copies of these proceedings, or to learn more about the System Dynamics Society
and the international research conferences, contact:
Roberta L. Spencer, Executive Director
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 - Rockefeller College
University at Albany, State University of New Y ork
135 Westen Avenue
Albany, New Y ork 12222, United States of America
Phone: + 1.518.442.3865
Fax: + 1.518.442.3398
Email: office@ systemdynamics.org
Website: www.systemdynamics.org
Table of Contents
Conference Schedul Handout
Welcome 1
Hosts, Partner and Organizing Committee 3
Award Committees 4
Submission Reviewers 5
Vol S 15
Acknowled it of Sp s. 17
Sponsors and Exhibitors 21
SD Career Link 24
2010 Korea A 25
Reading Supporting Material 26
PhD Colloquium Presentations 27
Abstracts* Listed i by first within sections, unless
Parallel and Poster Session Papers 29
Plenary Session Papers 127
Meetings, Special and Convened Sessions 134
Chapter & Special Interest Group Poster Presentations, 146
Workshops and Workshop Series. 154
*Full works as provided ilable on the Society website after the conference.
Bonus Day Presentations 163
Index of Authors, Presenters and Facilitators 167
Conference Venue Floor Plan Handout
Welcome
Dear Colleagues,
Bienvenidos! Welcome to the 27th International Conference of the System Dynamics
Society. This year we head west, the Western United States that is, specifically
Albuquerque, New Mexico, The Land of Enchantment. This is your opportunity to learn,
to energize, and to enjoy.
Including the PhD Colloquium and the Bonus Day, over the next six, yes six, days you
will have a chance to present, listen to and discuss system dynamics work presented by
academics and practitioners from around the world. This year for the first time there will
be a day dedicated to K-12 education and system dynamics. Plus, on Friday, the Bonus
Day, there will be a wide variety of exciting opportunities.
The conference is a wonderful opportunity to meet an amazing collection of people. We
encourage you to walk up and say hello to everyone - generally we are a pretty friendly
bunch. We are always energized when meeting friends and colleagues and making new
ones, not to mention the wonderful opportunities to ponder practical and methodological
issues with them.
To further increase your enjoyment of the conference we have also scheduled a variety of
social events including a Welcome Reception on Sunday night, an informal visit to Old
Town Albuquerque on Monday night, and the Conference Banquet on Tuesday. We also
welcome those who may be accompanying conference participants but not attending the
formal sessions. We hope that you will take part in the special events and enjoy the
attractions of New Mexico including the pre-arranged tours, children’s activities, and
visits on your own, including Santa Fe.
This year, 415 volunteer reviewers screened and commented on a record number of
submissions. In addition, many dozens of volunteers worked many hours to ensure a
successful conference; without their commitment our conference would be impossible. A
special thank you goes to all who helped.
In addition to all our sponsors and our conference host, Sandia National Laboratories, we
are also very fortunate this year to have The Boeing Company as a conference partner.
We sincerely appreciate the enthusiasm and support of all our sponsors.
We hope that you find the conference stimulating and rewarding. We ask that you bring
to our attention anything that may help us to ensure the success of the current conference,
as well as future ones. Thank you for attending, and, once more, bienvenidos!
On behalf of the hosts and conference committees, best wishes from,
Len Malczynski, Aldo Zagonel, Andy Ford, David Ford,
Edward Anderson, Jack Homer and Roberta Spencer
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Conference Hosts and Partner
Conference The Boeing Company
Partner: Chicago, Illinois USA
Host Sandia National Laboratories
Organization: Albuquerque, New Mexico USA
Co-host Argonne National Idaho National Paul Scherrer
Organizations: Laboratory Laboratory Institut
Argonne, Illinois USA Idaho Falls, Idaho USA __ Villigen PSI Switzerland
C onference C ommittee
Conference Leonard A. Malczynski Organizing Aldo A. Zagonel
Chair: Sandia National Committee Chair: Sandia National
Laboratories Laboratories
Program Andrew Ford David N. Ford Edward G. Anderson
Co-chairs: Washington State Texas A&M University University of Texas
University
Workshop Chair: Jack B. Homer Conference Manager: Roberta L. Spencer
Homer Consulting System Dynamics Society
Organizing Committee
George A. Backus Jacob J. Jacobson
Stephen H. Conrad Idaho National Laboratory
Sandia National Laboratories Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
Michael C. Richey Argonne National Laboratory
Paul Newton Dennis R. Powell
The Boeing Company Los Alamos National Laboratory
Tracy Benson Silvia A. Ulli-Beer
Waters Foundation
Paul Scherrer Institut
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Award Committees
4
Dana Meadows Award
R. Joel Rahn, Chair
Richard G. Dudley
Consultant
John D. W. Morecroft
London Business School
John D. Sterman
System Dynamics Group
MIT Sloan School of Management
Jay W. Forrester Award
Jac A.M. Vennix, Chair
Andrew Ford
Washington State University
Krystyna A. Stave
University of Nevada Las Vegas
Erich K. 0. Zahn
Universitat Stuttgart
Nijmegen School of Management, Radboud University Nijmegen
Jack Homer
Homer Consulting
Khalid Saeed
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
System Dynamics Applications Award
James Lyneis, Chair
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
J. Bradley Morrison
Brandeis University
Eric F. Wolstenholme
Symmetric SD
Community Service Award
James Lyneis, Chair
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Robert L. Eberlein
Ventana Systems Inc
Roberta Spencer
System Dynamics Society
Peter M. Milling
Mannheim University
John D. Sterman
System Dynamics Group
MIT Sloan School of Management
Kim D. Warren
London Business School
Erich K. 0. Zahn
Universitat Stuttgart
Jack Pugh
Retired
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Submission Reviewers
Ahmed AbdelTawab
AbdelG awad
IDSC/UiA
Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid
Naval Postgraduate School
Emmanuel D. Adamides
University of Patras
Ezekiel A delere A deniran
University of Lagos
Ashish Agarwal
Indira Gandhi National Open
University
Namsung Ahn
Korea Electric Power
Corporation
Juha Aijo
Ramboll Finland Ltd
Bahadir Akcam
University at Albany
Fadl Mohammed
Al-Akwaa
Cairo University
Mahmood A lborzi
Azad Islamic University
Stephen A lessi
University of lowa
Robert B. Allen
Drexel University
Richard Althouse
Kristjan Ambroz
Vanguard Strategy
Lianjun An
IBM
Santiago Arango
Universidad Nacional de
Colombia
Seema Arif
University of Central Punjab
Carlos A. Ariza
Stefano Armenia
CATTID, Sapienza University
of Rome
Holger Arndt
Universitat Erlangen Namberg
Steven P. Arquitt
University of Queensland
Daniel J. W. Arthur
Intemational Policy Dynamics
Mohamed Askar
American University in Cairo
Samuel Austin
US Geological Survey
George A. Backus
Sandia National Laboratories
Sushil Bajpai
Sadhana Centre for Mgt and
Leadership
Chris Baker
Fidelity Investments
Bent Erik Bakken
Norwegian Defence
University College
Bjorn T. Bakken
Norwegian Defence Academy
(FSS)
Yaman Barlas
Bogazici University
A.M. Barry
King Saud University
John A. Barton
John Barton Consulting
Pawel Bartoszczuk
System Research Institute
Samuel Bassetto
Grenoble University - Faculty
of Engineering
Steffen Bayer
Imperial College London
Allyson Beall
Washington State University
Todd BenDor
University of North Carolina
Chiara Bernardi
Cattaneo University LIUC
Asmeret Bier
Washington State University
Jason W. Black
GE Global Research
Laura J. Black
Montana State University
Graziella C. Bonadia
Fundagao CPqD
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 5
Submission Reviewers
Andrei Borshchev
XJ Technologies
Ron A. Bouchard
University of Alberta
Jeffrey Boyer
University at Albany
Peter K. Bradl
Univ of Applied Sciences
Wuerzburg
Malcolm Brady
Arizona State University
Newton Paulo Bueno
Federal University of Vicosa
Santiago Caicedo
Avianca
Kenneth H. Carpenter
Jewish Community Center of
Schenectady
Annick Castiaux
University of Namur
Steven A. Cavaleri
Central Connecticut State
University
Edoardo Cavalieri-D'Oro
MIT
Robert Y. Cavana
Victoria University of
Wellington
Miguel Gaston C edillo-
Campos
Tecnologico de Monterrey
Bipin Chadha
Coensys Inc
Ricardo Matos Chaim
University of Brasilia
Gaurav S. Chaudhari
University of Dubai
Jian Hung Chen
National Chi Nan University
Catherine Chiong Meza
Delft University of
Technology
Jianxun Chu
Univ of Science &
Technology of China
Howard Hao-Chun
Chuang
Texas A&M University
Gianluca Colombo
University of Lugano
Stephen H. Conrad
Sandia National Laboratories
Marcello C ontestabile
Imperial College London
Matthew A. Cronin
George Mason University
Margarita Maria Cruz
Barrientos
Global de Pinturas
Scott Cunningham
Delft University of
Technology
Stephen C urram
HVR Consulting Services Ltd
Christian Luiz Da Silva
PUCPR
Xin Dai
School of Business Sun
Y at-sen University
Michael L. Deaton
James Madison University
Salima Delhoum
Universitat Bremen
Sebastian Derwisch
Worldagroforestry Centre
(ICRAF)
Fabio Andrés Diaz Pabon
Universidad de los Andes
David Dickason
Bureau of Naval Personnel
Gokhan Dogan
MIT
Yong Du
University of Toronto
Richard G. Dudley
Jim Duggan
National University of Ireland
Galway
Radboud J. Duintjer
Tebbens
Delft University of
Technology
Varun Dutt
Camegie Mellon University
Josko Dvornik
University of Split
Isaac Dyner
Universidad Nacional de
Colombia
6 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Submission Reviewers
Robert L. Eberlein
Ventana Systems Inc
Sondoss E] Sawah
Australian Defence Force
Academy/UNSW
Marie Elf
Chalmers University of
Technology
Arun Abraham Elias
Victoria University of
Wellington
Cécile Emery
University of Lugano
Philip C. Emmi
University of Utah
Burak Eskici
Bogazici University
Martijn Eskinasi
Amsterdam School of Real
Estate
Joern W. Ewaldt
Con Moto GmbH
Jan Faber
Utrecht University
Jeanne Fair
Los Alamos National
Laboratory
Laércio Ferracioli
Federal University of Espirito
Santo
Lars Finskud
Vanguard Strategy
Michael Fletcher
Fred Flett
JENTEC International
Tom Lum Forest
Prometheal Systems
Jay W. Forrester
MIT
Douglas Franco
Econoinvest
Sheldon Friedman
St Joseph College
Margaret Ann Fulenwider
Helmes & Co LLC
Rafael M. Garcia
Rodriguez
Universidad de La Coruna
Carmine Garzia
University of Lugano
Nicholas C. G eorgantzas
Fordham University Business
Schools
Navid Ghaffarzadegan
University at Albany
Sameh Ibrahim Gharib
University of Bergen
Anthony H. G. Gill
Phrontis Limited
David F. Gillespie
Washington University in St
Louis
Will Glass-Husain
Forio Business Simulations
Cleotilde G onzalez
Carnegie Mellon University
Stefan N. Groesser
University of St. Gallen
Andreas Gro8ler
Radboud University Nijmegen
Carolus Griitters
Radboud University Nijmegen
Burak Gineralp
Y ale University
John W. Gunkler
HPVS LLC
Roger I. Hall
University of Manitoba
Stefan Hallberg
Templog
Reinhard Haller
Vienna University of
Technology
Charles C. Han
Tamkang University
Tim Haslett
Monash University
Gerrit Heijkoop
Delft University of
Technology
Magdy Helal
Benha Higher Institute of
Technology
Amin Helmzadeh
Sharif University of
Technology
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 7
Submission Reviewers
Petri Helo
University of Vaasa
Hugo A. Hernandez
PDVSA
Gary B. Hirsch
Creator of Learning
Environments
Marna Hoard
Substance A buse and Mental
Health Serv
Maik Hollmann
c.con Management Consulting
GmbH
Paul Holmstrém
Paul Holmstrom Management
AB
Siang Lee Hong
Indiana University
Peter S. Hovmand
Washington University in St
Louis
Naiyi Hsiao
National Chengchi University
Rueylin Hsiao
National Cheng-Chi
University
Joe Chiaojen Hsueh
MIT
Juan M. Huerta
Juan M. Huerta Inc.
Margarita Hurtado
Hernandez
Universidad Panamericana
Lihlian Hwang
Ming Chuan University
Athina Ioannidou
Jacob J. Jacobson
Idaho National Laboratory
Greg Jacobus
Sebastian Jaén
Universidad Nacional de
Colombia
Thomas J agalski
Bremen University
Harshvardhan J aipuriar
Tata Consultancy Services
Balaji J anamanchi
Texas A&M Intemational
University
Arthur Janssen
ATEL
Eva Jensen
Swedish National Defence
College
Klaus J ohn
Chemnitz University of
Technology
Paul E. Johnson
University of Minnesota
Scott T. Johnson
AlJones
NIST
Andrew P. Jones
Sustainability Institute
Charles A. J ones
Harvard Kennedy School
Lee J ones
Ventana Systems
Mary C. Jones
University of North Texas
Robert Kallenberg
Porsche AG
Florian Kapmeier
PA Consulting Group
Ozge Karanfil
Simon Fraser University
Evangelos Katsamakas
Fordham University
James Rhys Kearney
University of Salford
Andjelka Kelic
Sandia National Laboratories
Andreas Kemper
European Business School
Benjamin Kim
Lockheed Martin Corporation
Doahoon Kim
Sookmyung Woman's
University
Dong-Hwan Kim
Chung Ang University
Hyunjung Kim
University at Albany
Peter Klaas
Vestas Wind Systems
8 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Submission Reviewers
Miroljub Kljajié
University of Maribor
Mirjana K]jajic Borstnar
University of Maribor
Ulli H. Konig
RWE Energy AG
Davorin Kofjac
University of Maribor
Libor Kolacek
Ness Technologies
Birgit Kopainsky
University of Bergen
Saroj Koul
Acadia University
Rudolf Kulhavy
Academy of Sciences of the
Czech Rep
Martin H. Kunc
Warwick Business School
Jan H. Kwakkel
Delft University of
Technology
Chester S. Labedz
Central Connecticut State
University
Peter Lacey
Whole Systems Partnership
Richard Langheim
Ramapo College of New
Jersey
Sharon Lansing
New Y ork State Div of
Criminal Justice
Rene LeClaire
Los Alamos National
Laboratory
Myoung Ho Lee
Han-Kuk University of
Foreign Studies
Robert C. Lee
University of New Mexico
Tsuey-Ping Lee
National Chung-Cheng
University
Carlos A. Legna
La Laguna University
Ralph L. Levine
Michigan State University
Anson Kin Tat Li
University of Auckland
Lanhai Li
Xinjiang Inst. of Ecology &
Geography
Shyh-J ane Li
National Sun Y at-Sen
University
Chien-Liang Lin
National Kaohsiung First
University
Keith Thomas Linard
John-Paul II Institute
Ralf Lippold
Jing-jiang Liu
Zhejiang University
Min Liu
University of Italian
Switzerland
Manuel Liz
Universidad de La Laguna
Corey Lofdahl
BAE Systems
Luis Lopez
INCAE Business School
David W. Lounsbury
Einstein College of Medicine,
Yeshiva
Mohamed L outfi
University of Wales Institute,
Cardiff
Weifeng Lu
Nanchang Insititute of
Technology
Luis F. Luna-Reyes
Universidad de las Americas
Puebla
Yufeng Luo
Hohai University
Kathleen Lusk Brooke
Center for the Study of
Success
James M. Lyneis
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute
John Lyneis
MIT
Kambiz E. Maani
University of Queensland
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
9
Submission Reviewers
Roderick H. MacDonald
Initiative for SD in the Public
Sector
Louis Macovsky
Dynamic BioSystems LLC
Frank H. Maier
International University in
Germany
Mohammad Majdalawi
Arab Organization for
Agricultural Devel
Leonard A. Malczynski
Sandia National Laboratories
Martin E. Maren
Jason Markham
JM
Juan Martin Garcia
Julia Martinez
Universidad de Murcia
Ignacio J. Martinez-
Moyano
Argonne National Laboratory
Geoff McDonnell
Adaptive Care Systems
Marion McGregor
Canadian Memorial
Chiropractic College
Stephen B. McIntosh
Cardiff University
Douglas McKelvie
Alan Charles McLucas
Australian Defence Force
Academy/UNSW
Michael L. McManus
Children's Hospital
Alexandra Medina-Borja
University of Puerto Rico at
Mayaguez
Arif Mehmood
United Arab Emirates
University
Carlos Manuel Méndez
Acosta
Universidad de Belgrano
Luis Javier Miguel
University of Valladolid
Thar A. Miklashevich
Belarusian National Technical
Univ
Stanislava Mildeova
University of Economics in
Prague
Peter M. Milling
Mannheim University
James I. Mills
University of Utah
Bobby Milstein
Ctrs for Disease Control &
Prevention
Nathan A. Minami
US Army
Rajiv J. Mistry
Microsoft
Abdalla S. A. Mohamed
Cairo University
Jonathan D. Moizer
University of Plymouth
Mohammad T.
Mojtahedzadeh
The Boeing Company
Edoardo Mollona
Universita degli Studi di
Bologna
Giovan Battista
Montemaggiore
University of Palermo
Tae Hoon Moon
Chung Ang University
M. Hashem Moosavi
Haghighi
Ministry of Agriculture
José Manuel Mora
Tavarez
Autonomous Univ of
Aguascalientes
Michiya Morita
Gakushuin University
Marciano Morozowski
W!se Systems
J. Bradley Morrison
Brandeis University
Shereen Mohamed Morsi
MSA University
Mara Mulinari
Universidade Federal do
Espirito Santo
10 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Submission Reviewers
Ante M. Munitic
University of Split
Frank K. Murdock
FKM Consulting
Robert Murray
Savvy- Integration
Mostafa Najafiyazdi
McGill University
Dharmaraj Navaneetha
Krishnan
MIT
Paul Newton
The Boeing Company
Phuong Linh Thi Nguyen
Asian University
Stephen Olu Ogunlana
Heriot-Watt University
Cristiane O gushi
Fundagao CPqD
Camilo Olaya
Universidad de los Andes
Rogelio Oliva
Texas A&M University
Gerard O'Reilly
LGS Innovations/Bell Labs
Peter Otto
Union Graduate College
Birnur Ozbas
Bogazici University
Onur Ozgiin
Bogazici University
Ozgur Ozkan
Health Market Science
David W. Packer
Systems Thinking
Collaborative
Ozge Pala
Radboud University Nijmegen
George Papachristos
University of Patras
Theresa Pardo
University at Albany
Sang Hyun Park
National Information Society
Agency
Jamshid Parvizian
Isfahan University of
Technology
Donatella Pasqualini
Los Alamos National
Laboratory
Kalyan S. Pasupathy
University of Missouri
Alberto Paucar-C aceres
Manchester Metropolitan
University
Oleg V. Pavlov
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute
Janecke Pemmer
PricewaterhouseC oopers
Francisco J. Perez
Expertia Consulting Group
Gloria Pérez Salazar
Tecnologico de Monterrey
Lazaros V. Petrides
University of Salford
David G. Pfeiffer
Option Six
Olga Pierrakos
James Madison University
Kawika Pierson
MIT
Seckin Polat
Istanbul Technical University
Roberto Poles
RMIT University
P. Jeffrey Potash
CIESD LLP
Roberto Max Protil
Pontificia Univ Catdlica do
Parana
Davide Provenzano
University of Bergen
Erik Pruyt
Delft University of
Technology
Ying Qian
Agder University College
Rob Quaden
Carlisle Public Schools
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah
Y ork University
Michael Quigley
University of Salford
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 11
Submission Reviewers
Muhammad Azeem
Qureshi
Bahauddin Zakariya
University Multan
Luis Rabelo
University of Central Florida
Martin Rafferty
London South Bank
University
Hazhir Rahmandad
Virginia Tech
R. Joel Rahn
F. Vittorio Raimondi
Vanguard Strategy
K. Raman
Atefe Ramezankhani
Sharif University of
Technology
Boris Ramos
Jorgen Randers
Norwegian School of
Management
David Rees
Synergia Ltd
Juan C. Rego
André Reichel
Jose Luis Revah
SHL
Eliot Rich
University at Albany
George P. Richardson
University at Albany
John M. Richardson
American University
James L. Ritchie-Dunham
Institute for Strategic Clarity
Donald Robadue
Coastal Resources Center
Scott F. Rockart
Duke University
Lewlyn L. R. Rodrigues
Manipal Institute of
Technology
Thomas R. Rohleder
Mayo Clinic
David Rose
Stax Inc
Jay K. Rosengard
Harvard University
Etiénne A. J. A. Rouwette
Radboud University Nijmegen
K. R. Divakar Roy
Andhra University
Alexander V. Ryzhenkov
Mannheim University
Khalid Saeed
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute
Mohamed Mostafa Saleh
Cairo University
Rui Ferreira Santos
New University of Lisbon
Sangeeta Sardiwal
London South Bank
University
Kemal Sarica
Bogazici University
Jose Mari Sarriegi
Tecnun - University of
Navarra
Jeremy B. Sato
Washington University
Ali Kerem Saysel
Bogazici University
Martin F.G.
Schaffernicht
Universidad de Talca
Tim Scheffmann
Credit Suisse
Michael Schwandt
Markus Schwaninger
University of St Gallen
Habib Sedehi
University of Rome
Maria Cristina Serrano
Universidad Autonoma de
Bucaramanga
Man-Hua Sheng
Taiwan Textile Research
Institute
Michelle Shields
AgResearch
Timothy J. Shimeall
Camegie Mellon University
12 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Submission Reviewers
William Siemer
Comell University
Martin Simon
ipgroup
Andrej Skraba
University of Maribor
Jill H. Slinger
Delft University of
Technology
Merica Sliskovic
University of Split
M. Dolores Soto-T orres
Universidad de Valladolid
J. Michael Spector
University of Georgia
Thomas Stefan Spengler
Technische Universitat
Braunschweig
Yeoryios A. Stamboulis
University of Thessaly
Krystyna A. Stave
University of Nevada Las
Vegas
Katherine Steel
The World Bank
William Steinhurst
Synapse Energy Economics
Inc
Jiirgen Strohhecker
Frankfurt School of Finance
and Mgt
Jeroen Struben
Desautels Faculty of
Management, McGil
Lees N. Stuntz
Creative Leaming Exchange
Derek R. Supple
MIT
Marek Susta
Proverbs Corporation
Mats G. Svensson
Lund University
Fabian Szulanski
Mihaela Tabacaru
University of Bergen
Md Yusoff Taib
Zetta Consultants Sdn Bhd
Yutaka Takahashi
School of Commerce, Senshu
University
Burcu Tan
University of Texas at Austin
Muhammad Tasrif
Bandung Institute of
Technology
Ivan William Taylor
Dept of National Defence
Kathryn S. Taylor
University of Oxford
Timothy R. B. Taylor
Texas A&M University
Pard Teekasap
Southem New Hampshire
University
Victor Thombs
Decision Dynamics Inc
James P. Thompson
Fang Tian
Tsinghua University
Warren W. Tignor
SAIC
Flavio Tonelli
University of Genoa
Denis Tréek
Faculty of Computer and Info
Science
Kostas Triantis
Virginia Tech
lavor Trifonov
London Business School
Ya-tsai Tseng
Tunghai University
Yi-Ming Tu
National Sun Y at-Sen
University
David Turbow
TUI University
Fiisun Ulengin
Istanbul Technical University
Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
Imrana A. Umar
Powersim Solutions
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 13
Submission Reviewers
Keyvan Vakili Cuixia Wang LiXu
Sharif University of Jiangxi Univ of Finance & Fudan University
Technology Economics
Kaoru Y amaguchi
Cornelia van Daalen Keming Wang Doshisha University
Delft University of Counties Manukau District
Technology Health Board Min-Ren Yan
Chinese Culture University
Theo van Mullekom Kim D. Warren
London Business School Seung-J un Y eon
Margarita Vazquez Electronics and Telecom
Universidad de La Laguna Elise A. Weaver Research Inst
Human Resources Research
Nuno Videira Organization Joseph Y oon
New University of Lisbon Institute for International
Henry Birdseye Weil Commerce
Pablo Viejo MIT
European Institute for Energy Jiong You
Research Christian W eitert Fudan University
University of Mannheim
Klaus Ole Vogstad Gonenc Y iicel
Agder Energi Anthony S. White Delft University of
Middlesex University Technology
John J. Voyer
University of Southern Maine Andrew Whitmore Erich K. O. Zahn
University at Albany Universitat Stuttgart
Khaled Wahba
Cairo University Elin Whitney-Smith Xiandong Zhang
Netalyst Inc Fudan University
Wayne Wakeland
Portland State University Sanith Wijesinghe Longbin Zheng
New England Complex University of Bergen
Robert J. Walker Systems Institute
Delsys Research Group Inc Nicole Zimmermann
Ines Winz Mannheim University
Patrik Wallman University of Auckland
Lund University
Ellen Wolfe
Grit Walther Resero Consulting
Technische Universitat
Braunschweig
If you are i d in reviewing sul: for future please contact the System Dynamics Society at
office@ systemdynamics.org; include your name, contact information and area(s) of expertise.
14 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Volunteers
Edward G. Anderson, Jr.
University of Texas
Thread Chair
Bent Erik Bakken
Norwegian Defence
University College
Thread Chair
Allyson Beall
Washington State University
Thread Chair
Carbon Neutral Program
Coordinator
Asmeret Bier
Washington State University
Student Volunteer
Sion Cave
HVR Consulting Services
Ltd
Thread Chair
Dean Christensen
Cyber Learning Corporation
Conference Photographer
Howard Hao-C hun C huang
Texas A&M University
Student Volunteer
Thomas F. Corbet
Sandia National Laboratories
Thread Chair
Lyle Davis
University of Nevada
Student Volunteer
Jennifer Davis
University of Nevada, Las
Vegas
Student Volunteer
Emre Demirezen
Texas A&M University
Student Volunteer
Vedat G. Diker
University of Maryland
Thread Chair
Jim Duggan
National University of
Ireland Galway
Thread Chair
Robert Eberlein
Ventana Systems Inc
Web-based Submission
System Programmer
David R. Exelby
Decision Analysis Services
Ltd
Thread Chair
Thomas Fiddaman
Ventana Systems
Thread Chair
Emilee Ford
Washington State University
Student Volunteer
Valerie Gacogne
Complexio
Thread Chair
Navid G haffarzadegan
University at Albany
CareerLink Bulletin Board
Coordinator
Poster Symposium
Coordinator
Volunteer Coordinator
Paulo Gongalves
MIT
Thread Chair
Mark Heffernan
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
Thread Chair
Gregory Hennessy
University of Nevada, Las
Vegas
Student Volunteer
Gary B. Hirsch
Creator of Learning
Environments
Thread Chair
Jack B. Homer
Homer Consulting
Thread Chair
Sung-Ho Hong
Chungbuk National
University
Student Volunteer
Charles W. Hutchings
U.S. Department of
Homeland Security
Thread Chair
Niyousha Hosseinichimeh
University at Albany
Student Volunteer
Eva J ensen
Swedish National Defence
College
Thread Chair
Michael S. Kennedy
London South Bank
University
Thread Chair
Hi Sook Kim
University at Albany Visiting
Scholar
Poster Symposium Assistant
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 15
Vol s
Tsuey-Ping Lee
National Chung-Cheng
University
Thread Chair
James M. Lyneis
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute
Thread Chair
Leonard Malczynski
Sandia National Laboratories
Newcomer Orientation
Session Coordinator
Ignacio J. Martinez-
Moyano
Argonne National Laboratory
Thread Chair
James Melhuish
BAE Systems
Newcomer Orientation
Session Coordinator
William Meyer
University of Nevada, Las
Vegas
Student Volunteer
J. Bradley Morrison
Brandeis University
Thread Chair
Erling Moxnes
University of Bergen
Thread Chair
Onur Ozgiin
Bogazici University
Student Volunteer
Dinesh Prashar
University of Nevada
Student Volunteer
Jack Pugh
Retired
Webmaster
Kamal Qaiser
University of Nevada
Student Volunteer
Hazhir Rahmandad
Virginia Tech
Workshop Coordinator
R. Joel Rahn
Thread Chair
George P. Richardson
University at Albany
Thread Chair
Scott F. Rockart
Duke University
Thread Chair
Etiénne A.J. A. Rouwette
Radboud University
Nijmegen
Thread Chair
Jose Mari Sarriegi
Tecnun - University of
Navarra
Thread Chair
Eleeja Shrestha
University of Nevada
Student Volunteer
Heather Skaza
University of Nevada-Las
Vegas
Student Volunteer
Krystyna A. Stave
University of Nevada Las
Vegas
Thread Chair
James P. Thompson
Thread Chair
José M. Torres
Tecnun University of
Navarra
Thread Chair
Jeff W. Trailer
California State University
Chico
Thread Chair
Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
PSI
Thread Chair
W. Duncan Wadsworth
University of New Mexico
Student Volunteer
David Wheat
University of Bergen
Thread Chair
Kaoru Y amaguchi
Doshisha University
Thread Chair
Nicole Zimmermann
Volunteer Coordinator
Many thanks to every volunteer for their time and energy.
Our apologies if we inadvertently omitted anyone from this extensive list. Session Reporters will be listed and
their reports will be published in the October Newsletter of the System Dynamics Society.
If you are interested in volunteering for future conferences, please contact the System Dynamics Society at
office@ systemdynamics.org; include your name and contact information.
16 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Acknowledgment of Sponsors
Conference Partner
Q) AOEING Sponsor of Conference Banquet
Conference Host and Major Sponsor
S d
an la Sponsor of Opening Plenary Session,
Closing Plenary Session,
National - sks ern ay
Laboratories
Conference C o-host Institutions
Argonne re cs g ny I
Idaho National Laboratory —
PAUL SCHERRER INSTITUT
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 17
Major Sponsors
TART.
le
» Homeland
. Ww Security
Science and Technology
Sponsor of Nutrition Bars Sponsor of Printed Proceedings
LOCKHEED MARTIN
(h) Sandia National Laboratories
Sponsor of Sessions on Education, Special K-12 Students and Teachers Poster Session,
K-Graduate Community Workshops, and K-12 Bonus Day Event
Mid-level Sponsors
Sponsor of Chapter and Special Interest
Group Special Poster Session
Idaho Notional Laboratory
The
ae Manufacturing Game®
Sponsor of Refreshment Breaks
Sponsor of Thursday Workshops
18 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Exhibitors
Ny
ty *# CRI 6 integrate
Amber Blocks, Ltd. INTERNATIONAL
eg Fen, 28 Forio
@ Business Simulations
6 “Gy isee
Gold$im oe systems
JantzMorgan ily
Business and Financial Consultancies
Egypt & Made
Consulting Poweksim.
Group — solutions
transentis 1) VENTANA
systeMs, inc
vr
Partnership nyLogic 6
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Additional Sponsors and Friends
— FOOD
CSArch ye
Sponsor of Conference Posters .
Sponsor of Tortilla Chips
dl
Lane
Tess
Huerfano Chapter, Navajo Nation _
Sponsor of Native American Sponsor of Partial Printing
Dance Exhibition of Conference Brochures
Sponsor of PhD Colloquium Luncheon
System Dynamics Guild at
Powersim Software Sandia National Laboratories
Partial Co-sponsor of Welcome Reception Partial Co-sponsor of Welcome Reception
International .
Society of the
System society for S L
Sciences organizational learning
PEGASUS
Synapse HM
Energy Economics, inc. WILEY-
BLACKWELL
Many organizations and individuals contributed to this conference. We wholeheartedly thank our
sponsors and encourage you to thank their representatives during the conference. Please see contact
information for conference sponsors and exhibitors on the following pages.
Our Sincere Thanks To All Our Sponsors
20 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Sponsors, Exhibitors and Friends
Amber Blocks Ltd.
535 Park Avenue, Suite 4A
New Y ork, New Y ork 10065 USA
Phone: + 1 212 593 3110
Fax: + 1 212 755 3755
Argonne National Laboratory
9700 S. Cass Avenue
Argonne, Illinois 60439 USA
Phone: + 1 630 252 2000
www.anl.gov
Atkins Nutritionals, Inc.
1050 17th Street, Suite 1000
Denver, Colorado 80265 USA
Phone: + 1 303 633 2840
Fax: + 1 303 633 2860
www.atkins.com
The Boeing Company
100 North Riverside Plaza
Chicago, Illinois 60606-1596 USA
Phone: + 1 206 655 2121
www.boeing.com
CRA International
200 Clarendon Street, T-33
Boston, Massachusetts 02116 USA
and additional worldwide locations
Phone: + 1 617 425 3000
Fax: + 1 617 425 3132
www.crai.com
CSArch
Architecture | C onstruction Management
40 Beaver Street
Albany, New Y ork 12207 USA
Phone: + 1 518 463 8068
Fax: + 1 518 463 8069
www.csarchpc.com
e-integrate
1170 Brussels Belgium
Phone: + 32 2 672 72 77
Fax: +32 2 672 7277
Mail: info@ e-integrate.com
European Master Programme in
System Dynamics
Thomas Van A quinostraat 3, P.O. Box 9108
Nijmegen The Netherlands
Phone: + 31 24 3615805
Fax: + 31 24 3611088
www.europeansystemdynamics.eu
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
Level 6, Tower 2, 475 Victoria Avenue
Chatswood, New South Wales 2067 Australia
Phone: + 612 9495 0500
Fax: + 612 9495 0500
www.evanspeck.com
FoodShouldT asteG ood, Inc.
75 Second Ave., Suite 600
Needham Heights, Massachusetts 02494 USA
Phone: + 1 781 455 8500
Fax: + 1 781 455 8550
www .foodshouldtastegood.com
Forio Business Simulations
400 Spear Street, #120
San Francisco, California 94105 USA
Phone: + 1 415 440 7500
Fax: + 1 415 354 3457
www.forio.com
GoldSim Technology Group
300 NE Gilman Blvd, Suite 100
Issaquah, Washington 98027-2941 USA
Phone: + 1 425 295 6985
Fax: +1 425 642 8073
www.goldsim.com
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 21
‘s, Exhibitors and Friends
Huerfano Chapter (Dzil na’ oodilii)
Navajo Arts and Crafts
PO Box 968, County Rd. 7150, Bldg. #536
Bloomfield, New Mexico 87413 USA
Phone: + 1 505 325 1400
www.navajo-arts.com
Idaho National Laboratory
2525 N. Fremont Ave
Idaho Falls, Idaho 83415 USA
www.inl.gov
International Society for
the Systems Sciences
47 Southfield Road
Pocklington, Y ork YO42 2XE UK
Phone: + 44 (0)1759 302718
Fax: + 44 (0)1759 302718
www.isss.org/world
isee systems
Wheelock Office Park
31 Old Etna Road, Suite 7N
Lebanon, New Hampshire 03766 USA
Phone: + 1 603 448 4990
Fax: + 1 603 448 4992
Blog address: blog.iseesystems.com
www.iseesystems.com
Jantz Morgan LLC
253 Pleasant Street
Arlington, Massachusetts 02476 USA
Phone: + 1 781 643 6027
Fax: + 1 781 240 0326
www jantzmorgan.com
Lane Press of Albany
11 Kaimes Street
Albany, New Y ork 12205 USA
Phone: + 1 518 438 7834
Fax: + 1 518 438 3942
www.lanepressofalbany.com
The Manufacturing Game,
Ledet Enterprises, Inc.
7702 FM 1960 East Suite 226
Humble, Texas 77346 USA
Phone: + 1 281 812 4148
Fax: + 1 281 812 4149
www.manufacturinggame.com
Mohaseboon
Business & Financial C onsultancies
6 Omar Makram st., El Zohour District
West Omraniah, El Haram, Cairo Egypt
Phone: + 202 397 66 602
www.mohasboon.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142 USA
and additional worldwide locations
Phone: + 1 617 225 2700
Fax: + 1 617 225 2631
www.paconsulting.com
Paul Scherrer Institut
5232 Villigen PSI Switzerland
Phone: +41 (0)56 310 21 11
Fax: + 41 (0)56 310 21 16
www.psi.ch
Pegasus C ommunications, Inc.
One Moody Street
Waltham, Massachusetts 02453-5339 USA
Phone: + 1 781 398 9700
Fax: + 1 781 894 7175
WWw.pegasuscom.com
Ponte Consulting Group
Level 2, 14 Collins Street
Melbourne, Victoria 3000 Australia
Phone: +61 425 9473 60
www.ponteglobal.com
22 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
S 's, Exhibitors and Friends
Powersim Software AS
PO Box 125 Nyborg
N-5871 Bergen Norway
Phone: + 47 5560 6500
Fax: + 47 5560 6501
www.powersim.com
Powersim Solutions, Inc.
585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon, Virginia 20170 USA
Phone: + 1 703 467 0910
Fax: + 1 703 467 0912
www.powersimsolutions.com
Sandia National Laboratories
Albuquerque, New Mexico USA
Phone: + 1 505 284 6773
Fax: + 1 505 844 8558
www.sandia.gov
SoL
The Society for Organizational Learning
PO Box 381050
Cambridge, Massachusetts USA
Phone: + 1 617 300 9500
General Inquiries: info@ solonline.org
www.solonline.org
Synapse Energy Economics, Inc.
45 State St., #394
Montpelier, Vermont 05602 USA
Phone: + 1 802 223 2417
www.synapse-energy.com
System Dynamics Guild at Sandia
National Laboratories
Albuquerque, New Mexico USA
transentis management consulting
GmbH & Co. KG
Kranzplatz 5-6
Wiesbaden 65183 Germany
Phone: + 49 611 9009971
Fax: + 49 611 9009999
www.transentis.com
U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Science and Technology Directorate
Washington, DC 20528 USA
www.dhs.gov/scienceandtechnology
Ventana Systems, Inc.
60 Jacob Gates Road
Harvard, Massachusetts 01451 USA
Phone: + 1 508 651 0432
Fax: + 1 508 650 5422
Email: vensim@vensim.com
www.vensim.com
The Whole Systems Partnership
The Old Crown
Farnham, North Y orkshire HG5 9JD UK
Phone: + 44 1423 340585
Fax: + 44 1423 340289
www.thewholesystem.co.uk
Wiley-Blackwell
The Atrium, Southem Gate
Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ UK
Phone: + 44 (0)1243 779777
Fax: + 44 (0)1243 775878
www.wiley.com
Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI)
100 Institute Road
Worcester, Massachusetts 01609-2280 USA
Phone: + 1 508 831 6789
Fax: + 1 508 831 5517
Email: online@ wpi.edu
www.online.wpi.edu
XJ Technologies C ompany Ltd.
Office 410, 49 Nepokorennykh Ave.
St. Petersburg 195220 Russia
Phone: + 7 812 441 3105 and +7 812 441 3106
Fax: +7 812 441 3107
www.xjtek.com
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 23
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~~
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Boeing proudly salutes all our partners
who lift us up to be our very best.
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Jos NumBer: BOEG-0000-P3233verA
Date: 5-18-2009 11:48 AM
File Name:
p3233verA RO SysDynCnfrn.indd Output%: None
Print Color Sp: 4color
None Notes: None
None
None
None
Client: Boeing
Brand: Corporate Communica-
AD: 8 Twalks/M Lee
TS: Adam Collins
CW: M. Stout/K. Willard
PDM: Jose Ramos
GCD: joe Gallo
Ret: Karyn Bieneman
‘AE: Lisa Saldivar
Qc: Yanez
Des: None
Editor: Pat Owens
AB: Madie Anderson
PP: Kelly Riordan
Vend: None
Colors:
Fonts:
Images:
Cyan, Ill Magenta, lll Yellow, Ill Black
Helvetica Neue (65 Medium; Type 1)
M3042CTO1_r1_Worldjustice.eps (300 ppi; CMYK), Boeing_black_small_cs.eps
——_
Sandia National Laboratories
Host of the 2009 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Sandia’s Z machine, the world’s most powerful X-ray source, is used for fusion energy
research and to test the effects of radiation on materials.
Sandia National Laboratories is one of America's premier research
and development laboratories. Our core purpose is to secure a
peaceful and free world through technology.
Since Sandia was established in Albuquerque, NM, in 1945 it has
grown into a broad national security laboratory encompassing a
variety of technologies and programs. Our work involves missions
in these key areas:
HH Nuclear Weapons and Nonproliferation
I Defense Systems and Assessment
i Energy and Resources
i Homeland Security
Sandia works for, and partners with, the Department of Energy, the
Department of Defense, and the Department of Homeland Security.
We also work closely with industry, universities, and other govern-
ment agencies to bring new technologies to the marketplace. The
Labs may negotiate with partners to sign cooperative RaD agree-
ments that permit the Labs to collaborate on mutually beneficial
research, Other options for pursuing shared interests include licens-
ing agreements, technical assistance, use of unique Sandia facilities,
} Fund |
technical personnel and d
Sandia has about 8,600 employees, and our workforce consists of
highly educated and skilled engineers, scientists, and technologists.
About 18 percent of our employees hold doctoral degrees, and about
30 percent hold master’s degrees.
System Dynamics at Sandia
Sandia has been active in system dynamics since 1975. Today Sandia
is highly vested in SD-based studies of critical infrastructure protec-
tion, energy economics, and water resources management. Efforts to
understand the dynamics of coupled infrastructures, examine alterna-
tive energy sources, and highlight short- versus long-term trade-offs
in strategy and decision making are currently funded at the level of
millions of dollars annually.
Modeling for Water & Energy Decision Support
System Dynamics modeling for water and energy decision support
has focused on the issue of sustainability. An international effort to
build a high-level model of water resources in China, and a local
initiative to model household water conservation in the Rio Grande
Basin of New Mexico, have spun off many other water resource
management studies, both domestically and abroad, The energy
models have been used to contrast alternative, renewable energy
sources against petroleum-based fuels.
A Global Energy Futures Model simulates key aspects of nuclear and
non-nuclear energy, nuclear materials storage and disposition, global
nuclear-materials management, and nuclear-proliferation risk, along
with oil, gas, coal, greenhouse gas emissions, and other measures
of environmental impact. The model has been used by government
officials to simulate future energy trends and has created interest
in bio-fuel and renewable fuel studies, as well as integrated water,
energy, and food modeling projects.
These multi disciplinary projects have been client based and stake-
holder-driven. The assumptions embedded in the models have been
scrutinized by a gamut of scientists and experts. A groundbreaking
effort is under way to integrate system dynamics, border gradients
models, and spatially explicit modeling environments, such as GIS.
Modeling for Critical Infrastructure Protection
Today's open and technologically complex society includes a wide
array of critical infrastructures. Many have historically been physi-
cally and logically separate systems that had little interdependence.
As a result of advances in information technology and the necessity
of improved efficiency, however, these infrastructures have become
increasingly automated and interlinked. These same advances have
Created new and possibly cascading vulnerabilities.
of i it inistratic contract DE-ACO4-94AL85000. SAND No, 2007-3254P.
States Department.
Sandia National Laboratories is home to the National Infrastructure
Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), established to integrate
the national laboratories’ expertise in modeling and simulating com-
plex systems. System dynamics is an important modeling capability
used to quantify and evaluate the effects of infrastructures and their
interdependencies on supply and demand under different conditions
Given a specific threat or vulnerability scenario, the model-based
analyses estimate the potential magnitude, location, and timing of
disruptions. Further, the analyses establish propagations through-
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models incorporate the feedbacks created by the interdependencies
and their net effects on supply and demand balances. They also aim
to identify unintended consequences of policy
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Critical infrastructure protection studies using
system dynamics modeling include, among
others:
® Port security and long-term economic viability
@ Loss of multiple telecommunication assets
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fie
Sandia National Laboratories is
home to the National Infrastructure
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In parneship with other National Laboratories, universities, and
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the 2009 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
in Albuquerque, NM. This pivotal event will help consolidate and
enhance the use of system dynamics at the national laboratories and
encourage its use in national policy making.
omer COE |
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Information
For more about Sandia,
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An overview booklet is
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Oleg Pavlov, PhD — Faculty, WPI
Michael Radzicki, PhD — Faculty, WPI; Past President, SDS
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THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS CAREER LINK
What is it? The SD Career Link, started in 2000, is hosted by the System Dynamics Society. It
includes on-line information and links to organizations that employ candidates with system
dynamics and systems thinking backgrounds. The SD Career Link provides a valuable forum for
the exchange of information about organizations, positions and people in the field of system
dynamics. Please visit the SD Career Link bulletin board at the conference.
Career Link Allows Companies and Universities to D escribe G eneral Career
Information as Well as Specific Job Opportunities. The SD Career Link web page of the
Society web site has two subsections: (1) specific job listings, and (2) company/university
profiles. In the job listings section of the career link, employers advertise their current openings.
These are for any level of required expertise located in any geographical region. In the profiles
section, company and university employers provide general yet descriptive information about
how system dynamics fits into their organization, typical jobs, career paths, and other aspects of
employment. This subsection allows employers to provide information about system dynamics
opportunities within their organizations to supplement the more general information contained
on their corporate or academic websites. Such career information is valuable to current as well as
future system dynamics students, academics, and practitioners and we urge companies and
universities to describe the use of system dynamics expertise in their organization even if they do
not have job openings at the present time.
How to participate? Please refer to the SD Career Link page at the System Dynamics Society
website at http://www.systemdynamics.org/sd_career_link.htm or send an email message to the
Society office at <office@ systemdynamics.org>. We look forward to your participation.
24 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
(System
| Dynamics
Society
Announcing the 28" Intemational Conference of
the System Dynamics Society
Seoul, Korea
July 25 - 29, 2010
Conference C ontacts
Conference Chair:
Man-Hyung Lee
Chungbuk National University
Host Organization:
Korea Chapter of the
System Dynamics Society
Program Committee:
Tae-Hoon Moon, Chair
Chung Ang University
Zhiguang Cao, Co-Chair
Shanghai University of
Finance and Economics
Tim Haslett, Co-Chair
Monash University
Kaoru Y amaguchi, Co-Chair
Doshisha University
Khalid Saeed, Coordinator
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Organizing Committee:
Dong-Hwan Kim, Chair
Chung Ang University
Won-Gyu Ha
Electronics and Telecom
Research Institute
Y oung-Kyo Hong
Sook-Myung Women's
University
Mi-Sook Yi
Korea Research Institute for
Human Settlements
Y oung-Min Oh
Seoul National University
Workshop Co-chairs:
Nam-Hee Choi
Chungju National University
Sang-Hyun Park
National Information Society
Agency
Conference Manager:
Roberta L. Spencer
System Dynamics Society
conference@ systemdynamics.org
The capital of Korea, Seoul, is located on the Han River. Seoul
has been the capital of successive Korean nations ever since
1394. With over ten million people, Seoul is Korea's largest city
and one of the most densely populated cities in the world,
covering an area of 605 square kilometers. The rapid economic,
social, and technological progress of the
city has played a key role in Korea’s
development, and has been referred to as
the “Miracle on the Han River.”
The Conference Venue: Nestled in
Songpa-gu, on the south side of the Han
River, the Seoul Olympic Parktel has
perfect features for international gatherings,
and is a landmark in the heart of Seoul’s
sports district. The Seoul Olympic Parktel vividly reflects the
proud history of Seoul hosting the 1988 Olympic and
Paralympic Games. Surrounded with
panoramic views of the Olympic
Stadium, Olympic Park, Fortress, and
Han River, the environment-friendly
hotel and its beautiful outdoor
surroundings will offer everlasting
excitement and memories.
Furthermore, the Y outh Hostel within the Seoul Olympic
Parktel property guarantees alternative accommodations geared
towards less expensive, but cozy lodging.
For detailed information about Seoul Olympic Parktel please
visit: http://www. parktel.co.kr.
Watch for further announcements and details as they develop
Visit our website: http://www.systemdynamics.org
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
25
Reading Supporting Material
Supporting Material files can be found by clicking on the appropriate link in the Paper Index, found on
the conference website. Papers are listed alphabetically by the last name of the primary author.
> Viewing/O pening/Reading the Supporting Material:
Supporting materials will contain either a single file, or a PKZip format file which can be opened with a
number of utilities or directly on some operating systems. File types that may be contained with
supporting materials include plain text files or commonly used files types such as .doc, .ppt, .pdf, .htm,
-html and jpg. In addition, models may be included and these will have file extensions that depend on the
software used to create them. Below, find information on how to access freeware/demo/trial versions for
regularly used software from several system dynamics software publishers. Follow the links within the
descriptions below to the software needed to view the files.
In following chart, find the three-letter extension of the file name, then the software you need to view the
file.
| File Name Extension: | itm, stm [sip [sim | .vmf, .vpa, vpm, .mdl |
| Software Needed: iThink, STELLA | Powersim Studio | Powersim | Vensim
STELLA/iThink by isee systems:
http://www.iseesystems.com/player
This link will navigate you to the FREE isee Player. The isee Player lets you view, run, print and share
both STELLA (.stl) and iThink (.itm) models. Available in both Windows and Macintosh versions, the
isee Player allows exploration of all model layers - map, model, equation, and interface, and never "times
out."
Powersim Studio by Powersim Solutions:
http://www. powersimsolutions.com/SystemD ynamicConference.aspx
A free and fully-functional 30-day trial version of Powersim Studio 8 Enterprise edition is available for
download. Studio 8 contains an array of new and exciting features. In addition it can:
¢ Perform scenario control, optimization, risk analysis and risk management
Try setting up a user interface and test it in presentation mode
Include events, command buttons and actions to set up a cockpit
¢ Keep your model international using multiple languages on your model
e Share different levels of information using password protection
e Connect to any datasets, Excel, Access, Oracle and SAP NetWeaver
Note that a Studio 8 installation will automatically replace any previous version of Studio.
Vensim by Ventana Systems:
http://www.vensim.com/reader.html
The Vensim Model Reader can be used to open V ensim models which are files with extension .vmf, .vpm
or .vpa. This is free software which will allow you to view and simulate models changing the assumptions
but not model structure. Many models (.vmf, .vpm, and .mdl) can also be opened using Vensim PLE
which is free for educational use. Both PLE and the Reader are available from:
http://www.vensim.com/freedownload.html
26 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
PhD Colloquium Presentations
Plenary Presentations
Katherine Dykes
dykesk@ mitedu
MIT
36 Joy StR 3
Boston MA 02114 USA
Sondoss E] Sawah
selsawah@ student. adfa.edu.au
Australian Defence Force Academy/UNSW
School of ITEE
Northcott Drive
Campbell ACT 2612 Australia
Jinjing Huang
colorfulginger@ hotmail.com
NUI, Galway
155 Laurel Park, Newcastle Road
Galway Ireland
Tommy Ka Kit Ngai
tkkn2@ cam.ac.uk
University of Cambridge
Centre for Sustainable Development
Department of Engineering
Cambridge UK
Oliver Schmitzer
oschmitzer@ googlemail.com
University of Mannheim
Industrieseminar $ 202 - 215
Schloss 68131 Mannheim Germany
Mimicking Network Structure Effects in a
System Dynamic Model of C ompeting
Technologies
"Simply, we need to build a new dam:" Is it
really "SIMPLE"?
The Ford Method: A Sensitivity Analysis
Approach
Expanding A doption of Drinking Water
Treatment Systems in Developing C ountries:
A Case Study from Tamil Nadu, India
Resource allocation in multi-project
management
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 27
PhD Colloquium Presentations
Poster Presentations
Alicia Bunger
abunger@ gwbmail.wustl.edu
Washington University in St Louis
321 Barrington Square Apt E
St Louis MO 63122 USA
Luis David Galicia
ldgalicia@ miners.utep.edu
University of Texas at E] Paso
5873 Acacia Cir Apt. 1627
El Paso TX 79912 USA
Ozge Karanfil
ozgekaranfil@ gmail.com
Simon Fraser University
4342 Pender Street
Bumaby BC V5C 2M6 Canada
Anna Mayerthaler
anna.mayerthaler@ tuwien.ac.at
Vienna University of Technology
Ottakringerstrasse 19/19
1160 Vienna Austria
Thokozani T. Simelane
tsimelane@ai.org.za
Africa Institute of South Africa
PO Box 630
Pretoria 0001 South A frica
Muhammad Aman Ullah
m.aman@ auckland.ac.nz
Department of Information Systems and
Operations Management
Private Bag 92019
Auckland New Zealand
Partnership Development Among Mental
Health Agencies
Methodology for Bus Rapid Transit Ridership
Estimation and Deployment Phases
Implementation
A system dynamics model of body weight
regulation and obesity
Policy scenario modelling with the land-use
transport interaction model MARS Austria
Systems Dynamics approach of understanding
Africa's evolving social systems: special
reference to South A frica
How can a systems perspective aid an
understanding of corruption?
28 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
_ Parallel and Poster Session Papers _
Atefeh Adl
adl.atefeh@ gmail.com
Isfahan University of Technology
Khomeinishahar
Isfahan Iran
Jamshid Parvizian
jparvizian@ gmail.com
Isfahan University of Technology
Isfahan 8415683111 Iran
Ainara Alvarez
aalvarez@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - Universidad de Navarra
Paseo Manuel Lardizahal 13
20018 Donostia-San Sebastian
Spain
José M. Torres
jmtorres@ tecnun.es
Tecnun University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian
Spain
Ana Lauge
alauge@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal no13
20018 San Sebastian
Spain
Drought and Production Capacity of Meat: A
system Dynamics A pproach
The persisting drought in Iran, where the livestock are mostly fed by
natural pastor-lands, has caused a higher rate of sheep slaughter, thus an
increase in the supply of meat and a reduction of the price in the Summer
2008. On the other hand, the higher slaughter diminished the available
level of the cattle which in turn reduced the production capacity of the
following year. This is inherent and unique to this production sector that
the production capacity depends on the inventory. This study, based on a
modified supply chain dynamic model, indicates that the short term
effect of drought is a lower meat price; however, in the coming season a
sudden increase in the price should be expected. It can be concluded that
using right policies, such as importing provender, could save the hardly
recoverable production capacity of the country.
Russian-Ukrainian Gas C onflict Case Study
The following paper examines the ongoing gas conflict between Russia
and Ukraine. Europe have become collateral damage, as large part of the
natural gas destined for the EU pass through Ukraine. Numerous
precursors preceded the crisis; nevertheless, some countries have not
taken steps in advance to mitigate consequences. Failing to adopt a wide
perspective, both timely and structurally wise, can lead to major crises.
This research analyzes the lifecycle of this crisis and focuses on the
evolution of crisis' variables. Causal Loop Diagrams are built to
represent the structure that possibly originated this crisis. The
information gathered here could also be used as an input for future
modeling and simulation exercises.
Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegi@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia
Spain
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 29
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Lianjun An
alianjun@ us.ibm.com
IBM
TJ Watson Research Center
1101 Kitchawan Rd Rte 134
Y orktown Heights NY 10598
USA
On modeling some essential dynamics of the
subprime mortgage crisis
We develop a Systems Dynamics model for capturing the key
interactions involved in the evolution of the subprime mortgage crisis. In
particular, we propose an aggregate modeling resolution that involves
three main sub-systems, namely, an aggregate banking system, an
Dhar shankar Subr
dharmash@ us.ibm.com
IBM
TJ. Watson Research Center
1101 Kitchawan Rd
Y orktown Heights NY 10598
USA
Alan King
kingaj@ us.ibm.com
IBM TJ. Watson Research Center
1101 Kitchawan Rd Rte 134
Y orktown Heights NY 10598
USA
David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
101 Milne Hall
135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 318 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222
Colin Eden
colin@ gsb.strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Graduate School of Business
199 Cathedral Street
Glasgow G4 0QU
UK
housing market and an economic environment. The model
exposes the physics of each individual system as well as influences and
interactions among the three systems. The model is useful for developing
intuition about the evolution of the crisis as well as the lagged timing and
magnitude of the effects of various corrective actions, such as an
economic stimulus package. We present three scenarios using simulated
data. In the first scenario, we establish an equilibrium state that
represents a steady state normal condition. In the second scenario, we
introduce a step function for the availability of subprime loans and hold
it for certain duration. This practice eventually culminates in a credit
crisis, where the aggregate bank experiences insolvency. In the third
scenario, we study the application of an economic stimulus, which steers
the entire system back to a new equilibrium state. We note that the
economic stimulus needs to be larger than a certain critical lower
threshold in order to enable the system towards reaching a new
equilibrium.
ScriptsMap: A Tool for Designing Multi-
Method Strategy Workshops
This poster presents ScriptsMap, a tool developed to facilitate the design
of workshops using system dynamics group model building and group
problem structuring using a group strategy support tool (Decision
Explorer). The poster explains the genesis and purpose of ScriptsMap as
a means for articulating an extensive range of activities (scripts) useful
when designing model-building workshops. The map comprises building
blocks allowing a group facilitation team to construct, with the maps aid,
a thoughtful workshop design. The poster will illustrate the ScriptsMaps
structure through two multi- method workshop designs, which in their
own right provide i means of combini: I
Fran Ackermann
fran@ mansci strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Dept of Management Science
40 George Street
Glasgow G1 1QE
UK
30 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
101 Milne Hall
135 Westem Avenue
Albany NY 12222
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 318 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222
Colin Eden
colin@ gsb.strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Graduate School of Business
199 Cathedral Street
Glasgow G4 0QU
UK
Edward G. Anderson
edward.anderson@ mecombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas
McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Station B6500
Austin TX 78712 USA
Daniel Goldsmith
goldsmith@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
50 Memorial Drive E53-323
Cambridge MA 02139 USA
Nitin R. J oglekar
joglekar@ bu.edu
Boston University
School of Management
595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston MA 02215 USA
Pablo Azar
pazar@allstate.com
Allstate Insurance Corp Headquarters
2775 Sanders Road
Northbrook IL 60062 USA
Using Stakeholder Goals and Dynamics to
Surface Feedback Loops
Exploring a particular set of paths in ScriptsMap, this poster describes
and illustrates a new multi-method approach designed to help elicit
feedback loops in a group model building or strategy support workshop.
The approach uses a GSS tool (Decision Explorer) to map stakeholder
goals, system conditi and stakehold to goal-gaps. The
poster will show the process as it was used in a recent group strategy
support workshop.
Fran Ackermann
fran@ manscistrath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Dept of Management Science
40 George Street
Glasgow G1 1QE
UK
Panel Discussion: Distributed Talent
Management: Planning, Metrics and Oversight
The last decade has seen the rise in many types of distributed talent
management challenges -- global sites, disrupted demand, integration
ae 3 ilaboration and ‘cation tchnoloai
political pressures and threats from talent poaching and/or downsizing.
In this session, we wish to host a set of presentations followed by lively
discussion generated by questions and dialogue with the audience. The
presentation of case studies will describe three separate system dynamics
models aimed to examining policy options and allied metrics. The first
case examines the challenges at an insurance company while
implementing a scorecard in the face of an unbalanced evolution of a
population of agents across | hic market
The second case add the of software devel
maintenance at another large insurance company, where "cause and
effect" are separated in time and space. These characteristics make
attributions about system improvement difficult and can impede the
ability to manage human resources. The third case describes the
unanticipated side effects of global demand growth when a leading
software services firm is faced with poaching of workforce from its most
productive talent segments.
and
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 31
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Edward G. Anderson
edward.anderson@ mccombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas
McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Station B6500
Austin TX 78712 USA
John Pastor Ansah
pastorkobina@ yahoo.com
University of Bergen
Fantoft Studentboliger Box 823
5075 Bergen
Norway
Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de
University of St. Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
9000 St Gallen
Switzerland
G. Antonelli
antonell@ unimol.it
Universita degli Studi del Molise
Edoardo Mollona
emollona@ cs.unibo.it
Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Department of Computer Science
Mura Anteo Zamboni 7
40127 Bologna
Ttaly
Modeling Insurgencies and C ounterinsurgencies
A system dynamics model of insurgencies is built using the US. Army
and Marine Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 3-24) as a basis. It must,
however, be supplemented by additional theory from outside sources to
enable calibration to a historical data set. Parameter and policy analyses
are conducted. These highlight the criticality of some features of
insurgencies described by FM 3-24 such as the importance of obtaining
and maintaining popular support and employing sufficient
counterinsurgency forces to gather intelligence. Other features, not
highlighted by FM 3-24, also are shown to be important such as how
quickly does violence escalate during the insurgency and how easily can
detained/eliminated insurgents be replaced. Finally, contraindicating the
expectations of FM 3-24 and other conventional wisdom, results from
optimization simulations suggest that the level of force used in a
counterinsurgency should increase only once a preparatory period of
intelligence gathering by those same forces has been completed.
Economic Growth Accounting: Policy Analysis
of Transitional Dynamics
The GDP growth pattern of Ghana from 1960 to 2000 shows a
rollercoaster behavior. Because of this, the Ghanaian population today is
almost as poor as it was then. This phenomenon has been studies by
several researches all of whom have created important but atomistic
insights about this issue. We want to offer a richer explanation. The
paper develops an economic growth model to explain the GDP growth
pattern in the relevant time frame. We are (1) able to replicate the
historical GDP growth, (2) use the model to estimate the contribution of
factors of production and labor productivity to economic growth, (3)
offer a consistent causal explanation about the growth pattern, and (4)
conduct a counterfactual policy analysis offering insights about what
could have been possible if different policies would have been executed.
In conclusion, the main cause of slow growth in Ghana from 1960-2000
was the declining labor productivity and low physical capital stock. The
low physical capital base and lack of innovative production processes of
the workforce, is responsible for the poor growth performance. The
counterfactual policy analysis puts forth that a policy to encourage
through i to save is most successful.
Diverging Incentives and Evolutionary
Dynamics within Supply-C hain
The relationship between a supply-chain and a main contractor within a
local cluster of production unveils elements of complexity. While fates
of supply-chain and main contractor are often interlaced, as the
relationship unfolds dynamically incentives may diverge dramatically.
This paper addresses a dilemma main contractor faces in taking
decisions conceming technology transfer towards local suppliers. On the
one hand, main contractor has an incentive in transferring technology
32 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
L. Moschera
moschera@ uninav.it
Universita degli Studi di Napoli Parth
Santiago Arango
saarango@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Cra 80#65-223 Bloque M8-211
Medellin
Colombia
Jaime Andres Castaneda Acevedo
jacasta2@ unalmed.edu.co
Carrera 82 A No. 21-159
La Calleja casa No. 155
Medellin Antioquia
Colombia
Santiago Arango
saarango@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Cra 80#65-223 Bloque M8-211
Medellin
Colombia
Felipe Abaunza Osorio
fabaunz@ gmail.com
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Cra 80 #65-223 Bl M8A.
Medellin
Colombia
Santiago Arango
saarango@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Cra 80#65-223 Bloque M8-211
Medellin
Colombia
with the aim at increasing technological content of input supplied
locally. On the other hand, as the technological content of the supply-
chain increases, local suppliers may have an incentive in diversifying
their sales towards global clients thereby increasing their bargaining
power. Grounding on formal modelling and computer simulation, this
paper explores different scenario emerging by the matching of different
policies of technology transfer and different attitudes of supply-chain
towards diversification of sales towards global clients. We explore the
circumstances in which cooperative behaviour leads to more efficient
scenario than non-cooperative behaviours.
Capacity Utilization in Electricity Market
Behavior: An Experimental Analysis
This paper describes a laboratory experiment to study the effect of
variable capacity utilization over the behavior of an electricity market.
Capacity utilization is an important factor in order to explain the multiple
cycle periods observed in many industries. Investors make investment
and capacity utilization decisions in an expanded Cobweb market of the
power generation sector. The experiment has four year investment lag,
power generation capacity with a sixteen year lifetime and it does not
assume full capacity utilization. Cyclical behavior results in three out six
markets. Tests show that one market presents well-defined and
pronounced cyclical behavior, while other two markets present minor
oscillations. Results suggest that varying capacity utilization favors
stability, rather than a cyclical behavior.
A System Dynamics Model for the World C offee
Market
Commodity prices cycles have a negative effect in developing countries.
This paper applies system dynamics to study the long term cyclical
behavior of coffee price. The model is based in Meadows (1970) and
Deaton and Laroque (1996, 2003). The model includes the price
dynamics, investments, capacity, and demand. Our model is the first
stages and not fully calibrated. Nevertheless, the model provides a better
understanding of the commodity cycles, focusing on the internal
structure of the system. The model replicates the reference mode, thus,
coffee price exhibits cyclical behavior in the long term. In particular, we
have founded very difficult the estimation of investment functions;
therefore, future work will be focus on validation and use of laboratory
experiments to estimate investment function with coffee farmers.
System Dynamics and Laboratory Experiments
This paper is a review of research on the application of laboratory
methods to System Dynamics (SD). Although laboratory methods have
been used in psychology for many years, our review focuses on the
laboratory experiments developed from the experimental economics field
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 33
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Yris Olaya
yolayam@ unal.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Cra 80 No 65-223 M8(A)
Facultad de Minas
Medellin
Colombia
Jaime Andres Castaneda Acevedo
jacasta2@ unalmed.edu.co
Carrera 82 A No. 21-159
La Calleja casa No. 155
Medellin Antioquia
Colombia
Stefano Armenia
stefano.armenia@ uniroma2.it
CATTID, Sapienza University of Rome
Via Pescosolido 168
00158 Rome
Ttaly
Diego Falsini
diego falsini@ uniroma2.it
Giulia Oliveri
giulia.oliveri1983@ hotmail it
Kailash Balnac
kailash.balnac@ gmail.com
University of Technology Mauritius
La Tour Koenig
Pointe aux Sables Mauritius
Chandradeo Bokhoree
c.bokhoree@ utm.intnet.mu
University of Technology, Mauritius
School of Sustainable Dev and Tourism
La Tour Koenig
Pointe aux Sables Mauritius
Prakash Deenapanray
sanjudeenapanray@ gmail.com
Ecological Living In Action
74 Societe La Fleche
La Gaulette Mauritius
Andrea Marcello Bassi
ab@ millennium-institute.org
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650
Arlington VA 22201
and on their contributions to SD and the management sciences. In
particular, we examine the use of experimental methods for estimating
the decisions used by SD models, and the intersection of SD and
laboratory experiments in theory testing and theory building.
Energy Management in Residential Buildings: a
system dynamics approach
Due to rapid lation growth, ilability of and climate
changes, energy saving has become of great interest especially during the
last 30 years. One of the most evident human activities weighing down
on pollution and energy consumption is the construction of residential
buildings. However, the construction phase is but one of the stages in
wasting In fact, once a residential settlement has been built, it
is time for the dweller to use up resources. In our work, we propose an
analysis of the socio-technical mechanisms which move people towards
energy efficiency and the technology innovation that make it possible.
We will then describe the model structure and the various leverages that
the users are able to handle during the innovation process. Finally, a
discussion of results and implications for future research will also be
provided.
A System Dynamics Model of the Mauritian
Power Sector
Mauritius, a Small Island Developing State and one of the most
successful economies in A frica, has experienced sustained economic
growth during the past three decades. Mauritius’ power sector has
evolved considerably during this period to cater for increases in
electricity demand following such growth. The island has continuously
invested in additional capacity to meet such increases in demand in the
medium term. Approximately 78% of Mauritius’ electricity needs are
met through imported energy sources, mainly oil and coal. However
there are increasing concerns about price volatility and security of supply
from such sources. Policymakers are thus committed tow:
sustainable energy development plan for the country. In this line,
authorities have embarked into elaborating a comprehensive energy
policy for Mauritius. Threshold-21 (T21) is a tool that applies system
dynamics to aid in policy making in an integrated manner. This paper
documents the first iteration in the development of a power sector model
for Mauritius based on T21 models. The aim is to provide a description
of the Mauritian power landscape and translate the same into a system
dynamics model. Future work includes expansion of the model to cover
the whole of the Mauritian energy system and to do policy analysis.
34 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Yaman Barlas
ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University
Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul
Turkey
Onur Ozgin
onur.ozgun@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University
Industrial Engineering Department
Bebek 34342 Istanbul
Turkey
Suat Bog
Steffen Bayer
s.bayer@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Tanaka Business School
South Kensington Campus
London SW7 2AZ UK
Sally Brailsford
$.C.Brailsford@ soton.ac.uk
University of Southampton
School of Management
Room 4054 Building 2 Highfield Campus
Southampton S017 1BJ UK
Allyson Beall
abeall@ wsu.edu
Washington State University
344 NW Harrison St
Pullman WA 99163 USA
Andrew Ford
forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
Environmental Science
PO Box 644430
Pullman WA 99164-4430 USA.
Automating Model Testing and Improvement:
SiS Software
System dynamics model validity consists of two very different types:
structural and behavioral. A crucial property of system dynamics method
is that structure validity must precede behavior validity; the latter has no
value without the former. But the dilemma is that structural validity
testing is in general highly qualitative, subjective, hence not suitable for
algorithmic automation. An important exception is indirect structure tests
that combine the strength of structural orientation with the advantage of
being quantifiable. These structure-oriented behavior tests seem to be the
most promising direction for research on model validation. We
developed a software package at Bogazii University, SiS software that
does automatic dynamic pattern recognition and indirect structure
testing. SiS also does automated parameter calibration with respect to a
given (desired) dynamic pattern, hence can help with policy
improvement design. In this presentation we will show the main features
of SiS by a demonstration of the new version of the software.
Examining the role of simulation models in
health planning
Simulation models can occupy very different roles modelling in the
planning of health care infrastructure and services. They can be a close
replica of the real world used to produce exact answers or as a tool in
building consensus among stakeholders with different views and
objectives, as a boundary object. The role a simulation model can have
in a decision process is constrained by the degree to which the model and
its results are accessible to stakeholders with no or limited experience
with modelling. The visual ion of the model and its results are
likely to be of a major influence on the accessibility of the model.
However, whether a visually more accessible model will result in
improved stakeholder buy-in, creative problem solving and more
effective decision processes remains an empirical question. This paper
draws on a currently ongoing research project on the use of system
dynamics and discrete event simulation tools in health care and presents
some early conceptual work on the role of modelling in the planning
process.
Reports from the Field: Assessing the art and
science of participatory environmental modeling
Since the early work of Tansley (1935) and others we have embraced the
concept that an ecosystem is a synergy of its parts and the relationship
between those parts. Many science-centric approaches have been
developed to address ecosystem management while at the same time
taking into account the needs of the public. Participatory environmental
modeling that uses system dynamics is an effective process for
facilitating the integration of ecosystem science and social concems.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 35
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Michael Bernard
miberna@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS-1188
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA
Asmeret Bier
asmeret@ wsu.edu
Washington State University
460 NE Maiden Lane #5
Pullman WA 99163
USA
Enzo Bivona
enzo.bivona@ unipa it
University of Palermo
Via Mazzini 59
90139 Palermo Italy
Sonia Cristina Herrera Daza
soniablus@ hotmail.com
Universita Degli Studi di Palermo
Calle 11 #29-27
B/La Aurora
San Juan de Pasto Colombia
Using the art of facilitation and the science of model building the
methodology creates a common language that integrates various types of
information into simulation models. This paper describes a diversity of
case studies, modeling and facilitation technique, and the inventiveness
of practitioners who adjust their efforts to the needs of the stakeholders
and the environmental problems they are facing. Participatory modelers
who use system dynamics create customized platforms through which
stakeholders can simultaneously explore their system, stressors to that
system, potential tipping points, whether it is fragile or resilient, and any
variety of potential policies that address the environment, social
concems, and long-term sustainability.
Model the Interaction Between Leaders and
Society During C onflict Situations
This paper describes an effort by Sandia National Laboratories to model
and simulate populations of specific countries of interest as well as the
population’s primary influencers, such as government and military
leaders. To accomplish this, high definition cognition models are being
coupled with an aggregate model of a population to produce a prototype,
dynamic cultural representation of a specific country of interest. The
objective is to develop a systems-level, intrinsic security capability that
will allow analysts to better assess the potential actions, counteractions,
and influence of powerful individuals within a country of interest before,
during, and after a conflict event.
Dynamic Simulation of a Thermal Water
Quality Trading Program and Implications for
Policy Design
This paper describes the Riparian Shading Simulator, a system dynamics
model of a thermal water quality trading program, in which point sources
are allowed to offset their effluent by paying landowners to plant shade
trees. The model is used to explore consequences of policy designs with
varying trading ratios and upstream-only rules. Results from the model
can be used to help choose a trading ratio that balances the goals of
enhancing ecosystem services and reducing costs. The model also
indicates that policy makers should be careful about using upstream-only
Tules, since they can potentially cause shading to be concentrated in
upstream areas and contribute to downstream hotspots.
Implementing a sustainable C SR Strategy
through a System Dynamics Perspective:
evidences from a C olombian case-study
During last decades, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) strategies
received a growing attention from both businesses and non profit
organisations. However, very often organisations fail to correctly
implement a successful CSR strategy. Through the analysis of a case-
study, this paper tries to demonstrates how a CSR strategy could fail in
36 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Laura J. Black
Ijblack@ alum.mitedu
Montana State University
PO Box 3662
Bozeman MT 59772-3662
USA
Don Greer
drgreer@ greerblackcompany.com
Greer Black Company
PO Box 3607
Bozeman MT 59772-3607
USA
Inge L. Bleijenbergh
i bleijenbergh@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Institute for Management Research
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Hubert Korzilius
hkorzilius@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Institute for Management Research
PO Box 9108 6500 HK
Nijmegen The Netherlands
Piet Verschuren
p.verschuren@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Institute for Management Research
PO Box 9108 6500 HK
Nijmegen The Netherlands
the long term if a open-loop logic is adopted. On the contrary, by making
explicit the feedback loops structure underlying a CSR strategy, the
system dynamics approach is likely to better support decision makers in
ing effective CSR ies able to foster i long
term growth. A fter discussing the main benefits and limits of the CSR
concept reported in literature, the case-study is introduced and the
method adopted to introduce a CSR strategy is explored. Then, such an
approach is reconsidered in a feedback perspective and presented with
the study i i d. Finally, conclusions and further
remarks are outlined.
You meant what? Socially constructing meaning
with ongoing interactions
Begun as a consulting project to resolve “disconnects” within large
aerospace programs, this research effort asserts that we can gain new
perspectives on innovative knowledge-work through simulations that
represent the causal relations suggested by George Mead’s foundational
theory of how we create shared meaning. In Mead’s interactionism we
find principles and that underlie hensive social
theories of structuration and practice as well as many studies on
knowledge work, king, and decisi g. In
earlier work, we produced a formal theory represented in a ee
model of what exacerbates and reduces “disconnects” among four
dent in their i ive work. Here we describe
how we collected and analyzed qualitative data in which the model was
grounded; identified constructs in the data and literature relevant to the
presenting problem; and proceeded with model-building and analysis,
particularly detailing how we “traversed” from rich, qualitative empirical
data to themes and higher-level abstractions useful as constructs in a
theoretically informed simulation model. We now carry theory-building
a step further by revisiting sociological theories of meaning-creation and
knowledge-construction to probe how they inform and re-form our
understanding and provide new insights about managing knowledge-
work.
The Validity and Utility of Participatory
Research Strategies
Participatory research strategies, like Group Model Building, are of
increasing importance in social science research. These strategies are
especially used to support practice oriented research, where decision-
making needs to be supported or solutions for practical problems need to
be found. We argue that participatory research strategies can be
differentiated into practice based and expert based research. They offer
suitable alternatives for mainstream data based types of research to
tackle practical problems. In this paper we formulate methodological
criteria that are necessary to evaluate the practical utility of research
strategies and the extent in which they produce valid results for practice
oriented research.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 37
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Kevin Boettcher
kevin_boettcher@ verizon.net
Vertex Inc.
101 Arlington Road
Paoli PA 19301
Justin Boudreau
justboud@ WPI.EDU
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609-2280
USA
Eugene Choi
echoi722@ gmail.com
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609-2280
USA
Ravindra Datta
rdatta@ WPLLEDU
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609-2280
USA
Oljora Rezhdo
oljora_r@WPILEDU
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609-2280
USA
Manuel Bouza
manuel.bouza@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI)
Dynamics of Innovative Systems
OVGA 115
CH-5232 Villien PSI
Switzerland
A Systems-Oriented Analysis of the C orporate
Tax Department Data C ollection W ork Process
System Dynamics modeling techniques are applied to examine
underlying dynamics affecting corporate tax department operations.
Focusing on the complex work process of collecting data to make book
to tax adjustments, a model is constructed that illuminates the cause and
effect impact on tax department performance of having errors in
collected data, and of the iterations required to resolve these errors. The
model provides a basis for examining and justifying investment in
process improvement alternatives that can not only have a financial
impact on the enterprise, but also reduce risk with respect to meeting
Sarbanes Oxley imposed standards.
Platinum Supply and the Growth of Fuel Cell
Vehicles
This report addresses problems associated with U.S. fuel cell vehicle
production and a limited platinum supply. Polymer Electrolyte
Membrane (PEM) fuel cells, which use a platinum catalyst, could place
strain on the platinum market if fuel cell vehicles are widely produced.
We developed a dynamic hypothesis, identified causal relationships, and
created a system dynamics model in iThink. Based on this model, we
found platinum prices would likely reach $50,000 per kilogram in 30
years and the cost of platinum for a fuel cell vehicle would be $2,500. At
this price, the platinum barrier is surmountable if the cost of other FCV
components is drastically reduced. If a world FCV market takes hold, it
was concluded that only about 15% global market penetration is feasible.
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
Endogenous Transformation in the Automobile
Industry
Established industries develop and mature along continuous trajectories
defined by the underlying technological paradigm relevant to serve the
value network of the industry. Technological discontinuities and/or
preference shifts at the higher levels of the value network may triggera
38 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
silvia.ulli-beer@ psi.ch
PSI
Roethelweg 11
5303 Wuerenlingen
Switzerland
Newton Paulo Bueno
npbueno@ ufv.br
Federal University of Vicosa
Dept de Economia Campus Universitario
36571-000 Vicosa Minas Gerais
Brazil
Santiago Caicedo
caicedos@ gmail.com
Avianca
Calle 103A 17-36 Apt 306
Bogota Colombia
Fabio Andrés Diaz Pabon
fa-diaz@ uniandes.edu.co
Universidad de los Andes
Calle 68 #70C-73
Cundinamarca
Colombia
technological transformation in the industry. Depending on different
circumstances, the technological transformation process may have
significant impact on the industry, reverting the continuous maturation
process, creating new structures and changing the way business is done
in the future. Here we describe the transformation process that is evident
in today's automobile industry, which we call Endogenous
Transformation, and compare it two transformation processes previously
described in the literature (Disruptive and Radical Transformation). In an
Endogenous Transformation process, a new technology is developed in a
joint effort by most organizations in the industry to substitute the old
technology, with which their value network cannot be served any longer
in the future. Important conditions for an Endogenous Transformation
process to develop is that new knowledge must be effectively protectable
from being freely copied by the competition and that new knowledge is
traded between. izati ing significant knowled
asymmetries in the industry.
System Dynamics and the role of History in
economic growth theory
Recent literature in economic growth suggests that a theoretical research
convergence among historical studies and neo-growth theory is presently
taking place. We argue in this paper that system dynamics, due to be a
flexible methodology, may be an instrument for helping to bridge those
two strands of thoughts. The paper begins for presenting a stylized
historical background for endogenous growth theory which is perhaps
one the more appealing modem interpretation of growth process
available. A simple endogenous growth model based on this historical
background is then provided and re-written in system dynamics
language. An enlarged version of the basic growth model is next
presented and it is shown how to assess the strength of the different
feedback loops involved in the process of economic growth. The
conclusive section of the paper finally suggests that system dynamics
can be an i Il y tool for ding and perhaps
enhancing economic growth in less developed countries.
Too early, too quickly: Impact of short-term
decisions in fleet renewal programs
Decisions made in the air transport industry are defined by perceptions.
Airlines order aircraft when they believe the conditions to upgrade their
fleet are appropriate in terms of profitability and market opportunities.
However, the financial performance of an airline can be easily affected
by several variables. Many types of delays are decisive in the income
and expense structure of the organization. Fleet renewal, for instance, is
a very lengthy process, since deliveries usually take five years from the
date the order is placed. This paper uses System Dynamics to evaluate
the performance of different strategies concerning fleet renewal in a
commercial airline, taking into account the complex interdependence
between variables and the delays involved in the process. The simulation
model is absolutely based on real information retrieved from databases
of aviation authorities and actual airlines in Colombia.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 39
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Robert Y. Cavana
bob.cavana@ vuw.ac.nz
Victoria University of Wellington
PO Box 600
Wellington
New Zealand
Thomas H. Adams
thomas.adams@ scionresearch.com
Scion
49 Sala Street
Rotorua 3046
New Zealand
Francesco Ceresia
feeresia@ libero..it
University of Palermo
Via Croce Rossa 33
90144 Palermo
Ttaly
Kirandeep Chahal
kirandeep.chahal@ brunel.ac.uk
22 Craneswater
Hayes Middlesex UB3 5HP
UK
Tillal Eldabi
tillal.eldabi@ brunel.ac.uk
Brunel University
A Qualitative System Dynamics Analysis of the
Effects of an Emissions Trading Scheme on the
New Zealand Forestry Value Chain
As part of New Zealands obligations to the Kyoto Protocol, New
Zealand has developed an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) as a
mechanism to reduce its national greenhouse gas footprint, and to
encourage and support global action on climate change. The forestry
sector in New Zealand was the first sector to enter the ETS, effective
from 1 January 2008. So far many forest owners in New Zealand have
been slow to join the scheme. To investigate this situation further, a
systems thinking group model building workshop was held to discuss the
effects of the ETS on the New Zealand forestry value chain. A
qualitative system dynamics analysis was undertaken, whereby a range
of relevant issues were generated by a group of stakeholders, and based
on these a set of causal variables were identified. These showed a strong
bias towards an economic viewpoint of the basic issue being examined.
Causal loop diagrams were made from these variables, and the dominant
loops were briefly analysed. This paper will discuss some of the insights
gained from this project to date. Keywords: Systems thinking, qualitative
system dynamics, New Zealand forestry value chain, carbon
sequestration, carbon dioxide, emissions trading.
A Model of Goal Dynamics in Organizations: a
case study
This work is an attempt to go ahead on a suitable system dynamics
model for goal dynamics in organizations proposed by Barlas &
Y asarcan (2008). Even if the proposed model doesn’t have any
pretension to be exhaustive, the main objective of this paper is to
propose a model of goal dynamics in which Goal Setting, Management
by Objectives and Training are viewed as human resources practices able
to enhance workers’ goal ¢ i and therefore, ional
performance. In the first part of this paper, an analysis of Goal Setting
Theory and the role of goal setting practice in enhancing worker's
performance are remarked. In the second part, the case-study, the causal
loop and a quantitative model of goal dynamics in organizations are
described. In the third part, behaviour reproduction test, optimization
analysis for parameter estimation and scenario analysis are presented.
Limits of this research and conclusion are finally discussed.
Understanding the impact of whiteboard on
A&E department operations using hybrid
simulation
This paper uses hybrid simulation to evaluate the impact of a whiteboard
on the workflow of an A&E department. Hybrid simulation in this
context is defined as the integrated use of discrete event simulation and
40 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Abhijit Mandal
‘A.Mandal@ mdx.ac.uk
Middlesex University Business School
Business & Management
The Burroughs Hendon
London NW4 2AE
UK
Gaurav S. Chaudhari
gauravc@ viedu
University of Dubai
PO Box 14143
Dubai
UAE
Robert H. Sturges
sturges@ vtedu
Virginia Tech
Department of Industrial & Systems Eng
103 Durham Hall
Blacksburg VA 24061
USA
Corina Sandu
csandu@ vtedu
Department of Mechanical Engineering
104 Randolph Hall
Blacksburg VA 24061
A
Jian Hung Chen
je.ncau@ gmail.com
National Chi Nan University
470 Dah Shieh Road
Puli Nan Tou
Taiwan ROC
Yijen Chen
yichen.sd@ gmail.com
Industrial Technology Research Inst.
195 Sec 4 Chung Hsing Rd Chutung
Taiwan 31040
China
system dynamics; we illustrate how discrete event simulation and system
dynamics, by themselves, are incapable of meeting the objective.
"Parsimonious" and "divide and conquer" principles for model-building
have been followed. We also highlight how a slight modification to the
"divide and conquer" approach can assist multi-method users. This paper
has deployed novel approach of hybrid simulation in the context of
healthcare. It attempts to link value proposition of information system
(whiteboard/ electronic patient tracking system) to workflow of A&E
department. Due to technical limitation with respect to automatic
exchange of information between system dynamics and discrete event
simulation, potential of hybrid simulation could not be deployed to
maximum level.
On the underlying structure of system dynamics
models
The underlying structure of system dynamics models is that of a
proportional feedback controller. We propose a broader framework for
system dynamics models, where systems are modeled using a combined
feedback-feedforward structure. While the traditional structure for
system dynamics models only uses proportional feedback of error for
control, the proposed structure for information feedback employs the use
of proportional, integral and derivative (PID) error. Hence, existing
system dynamics models only use a small subset of the proposed
structure for modeling systems. We argue that the proposed structure
provides a more flexible framework for modeling and designing systems.
A System Dynamics Model of the TFT LCD
Industry Development in Taiwan
The TFT LCD (Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display) industry is
one the most rapid growing high-technology industry in recent decades.
The development process of this industry is complex and dynamic,
requiring the accumulation of technology, capital, production capacity,
and human resources. For a late coming country, the development
process also involves tense interactions with the national innovation
systems and international industrial networks. Taiwan has become the
second largest TFT LCD producer within two decades; the underlying
structure behind the success is an interesting topic to explore. This study
used system dynamics to analyze the development process of the
Taiwanese TFT LCD industry. A qualitative model was derived based on
the development history. Implications of this study are also discussed.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 41
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Howard Hao-C hun Chuang
hchuang@ mays.tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
Barthelow Dr Apt 16B
College Station TX 77840
USA
Roengchai Chumai
roengchai.chumai@ ge.com
GE Energy (Thailand) Limited
6th Fl The Seaboard Bldg
2/58 Highway 3191 Maptaphut
Muang Rayong Thailand
Psychological Safety and Group Learning:
Cycle-Time Reduction for Collaborative Product
Development
This study presents a system dynamics analysis of collaborative product
development in a manufacturer-supplier dyad. We conduct a SD-based
case study in Taiwan high-tech electronics where a manufacturer and a
supplier form vertical product development partnerships. The SD inquiry
helps inter- izational project teams und 1 how cognitive and
social factors such as psychological safety, level of collaboration, and
group leaming rather than technical factors such as the deployment of
collaboration software affect the development cycle-time more. We set
up a simulation model and give ions based on simulati
experiments. Simulation results show that higher level of psychological
safety and collaboration contributes to the cycle-time reduction and
facilitates group leaming. Interestingly, the highest level of
psychological safety and collaboration does not necessarily lead to most
group leaming activities. Moreover, project teams exhibit poorer group
learning and team productivity when they merely set up higher
performance goals without enhancing initial level of collaboration and
psychological safety.
System Dynamic Modeling of Plant Maintenance
Strategy in Thailand
This research studied about plant maintenance strategy and condition
monitoring technology used in Thailand compared to typical and
benchmarking plants in United States. The research first reviewed
literature on plant maintenance strategy used in typical and
benchmarking plants in United States and related information of
condition monitoring technology as well as previous research in this
field. A set of questions was used for structured interviews with
respondents working in power generation, petrochemical, refinery and
gas separation plants in Thailand. Next, System Dynamics was used to
model a generic plant maintenance system and then the collected data
from interviews was used as input for the model. The system’s behavior
was studied focusing on plant uptime and maintenance cost. The results
imply that industrial plants in Thailand should reduce preventive
maintenance levels and increase predictive maintenance levels to better
meet the benchmark as well as to increase plant uptime and reduce
maintenance cost. The simulation model can be used as a starting point
for particular plants to study plant maintenance behavior for finding a
suitable maintenance policy. Actual plant data can be used for model
modification and simulation studies. Keywords: Condition monitoring
hnology, Plant mai strategy, Mai
System dynamics.
42 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Thomas D. Clark
tomS4clark@comcast.net
Strategy Associates LLC
10382 West Remington Drive
Littleton CO 80127
USA
Mary C. Jones
jonesm@unt.edu
University of North Texas
1155 Union Circle #305249
Denton TX 76203
USA
Robert W. Zmud
rzmud@ou.edu
University of Oklahoma
Michael F. Price College of Business
Norman OK 73019
USA
Stephen H. Conrad
sheonra@sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis
PO Box 5800 MS 1138
Albuquerque NM 87185-1138
USA
Felicia A. Duran
faduran@sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 0757
Albuquerque NM 87185-0757
USA
Gregory N. Conrad
gnconra@sandia,gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Threat Analysis Technologies
PO Box 5800 MS-1235
Albuquerque NM 87185-1235
USA
David P. Duggan
dduggan@sandia gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Networked Sys Survivability and Assurance
PO Box 5800 MS-0672
Albuquerque NM 87185-0672
USA
Post Adoptive ERP Use Behaviors: A Dynamic
Conceptualization
A ptual model of post-i ion enterprise resource planning
systems (ERP) use is developed and operationalized using a dynamic
systems perspective. The primary purpose is to enrich our collective
understanding of how companies might facilitate ERP usage to enhance
the business value of this technology investment after the initial
The ptual model a dynamic information
feedback structure that illustrates the relationships among several post-
adoptive factors including software and work process training,
experiential interventions to facilitate extended and deeper usage, user
software and work process understanding, the extent of features
implementation, the range of ERP system usage, and ERP benefits. The
model is drawn from findings about post-ERP implementation described
in the literature. Pragmatic insights are provided by the conceptual model
and recommendations for future research are discussed.
Modeling the Employee Life Cycle to Address
the Insider Threat
Within an organization, the employee population is the source of
potential malevolent insiders. To investigate the evolution of the insider
within an or we are a model of the empl life
cycle. The employee life cycle model i is designed to define and analyze
of the emp! p with insider security protection
strategies. The model was. exercised for an example scenario that focused
on human resources and personnel security activities, specifically, pre-
hiring and security P This modeling effort
provides a framework to understand important interactions,
interdependencies, and gaps in insider protection strategies. This work is
part of a larger effort to develop the basis for an integrated systems-
based process for designing and evaluating effective insider security
systems.
E. Bruce Held
ebheld@sandia gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Office of Counterintelligence
PO Box 5800 MS-1227
Albuquerque NM 87185-1277
USA
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 43
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Xin Dai
daixin@ mail sysu.edu.cn
School of Business Sun Y at-sen Univer
135 Xingang West Road
Guangzhou 510275
China
Jing-hua Xiao
Insxjh@ mail.sysu.edu.cn
Sun Y at-sen University School of Bus.
Kang Xie
mnsxk@ mail sysu.edu.cn
Sun Y at-sen University School of Bus
Brian C. Dangerfield
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford
Salford Business School CORAS
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford M5 4WT UK
Norhaslinda Zainal Abidin
nnorhaslinda@ yahoo.com
University of Salford
205 Heywood St
Manchester M8 OPB UK
Michael A. Deegan
deeganphd@ gmail.com
National Academies of Science
1200 First Street
Unit 222
Alexandria VA 22314 USA
Growth of Enterprise Information Technology
Application: System Dynamics Model and
Empirical Evidence
The present research on the growth of enterprise information technology
applications is to build an effective system dynamics model which can
reveal the internal laws of the general process experienced by an
enterprise integrating the application of modem information technology
and management. Based on the literature review and surveys on more
than two hundred ies, we sum up the mechanism among the
information technology application and key impact factors. In
d | modeling methods of system
act e with the co:
dynamics, a model has been built and tested. The model is also
supported by the empirical evidence.
The Identification of Potential Policy
Intervention Points in the Battle against
Childhood Obesity
The purpose of this research is to discuss how system dynamics and
social marketing together can develop an understanding of how to effect
behavioural change in over-weight and obese children and to reverse the
current trends towards average weight gain. A review of the literature
has uncovered many potential factors which comprise the obesogenic
environment. The relationship between obesity and these factors is
outlined. The research to date has also included a review of system
dynamics work on the obesity issue. At the present stage we have
conceptualised the model to include a population sector, a meal
consumption sector and the consequent energy intake from these meals.
Energy expenditure also plays a part in determining whether an
individual gains weight and this too is addressed. We strive for the
identification of the potential (versus the cost) of social marketing
interventions to change the behaviour of children vis-a-vis food and
physical activity.
Developing Causal Map C odebooks to Analyze
Policy Recommendations: A content analysis of
floodplain management recommendations
Policy recommendations in public policy venues take on several forms.
In some cases, they are well-crafted arguments in favor of a particular
course of action. Strong policy recommendations will frame issues in a
way that lead decision-makers towards a preferred set of solutions. This
paper presents a codebook for developing causal maps from policy
recommendation reports and texts. The codebook's strengths and
weaknesses are discussed, as applied to a set of recommendations made
to reduce flood damages and increase the quality of floodplain
44 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Emre M. Demirezen
emre.demirezen@gmail.com
Texas A&M University
Department of INFO Mays Business School
320 Wehner Building 4217 TAMU
College Station TX 77843
USA
Yaman Barlas
ybarlas@boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University
Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul
Turkey
Sebastian Derwisch
s.derwisch@egiar. org
University of Bergen
Postbus 7800
Bergen 5020 Norway
Birgit Kopainsky
birgit kopainsky@flury-giuliani.ch
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
PO Box 7800
N-5020 Bergen Norway
Vincenzo Di Giulio
enzo.digiulio@enicorporateuniversity.eni.it
Eni Corporate University
Scuola Mattei
Via $ Salvo 1 San Donato Milanese
20097 Milan Italy
Stefania Migliavacca
tefania i.
Eni Corporate University
Scuola Mattei
Via S Salvo 1
20097 San Donato Milanese MI Italy
management in the U.S. This paper shows how the internal validity of
causal maps constructed from qualitative data will be improved by
developing codebooks that are reliable, consistent, and transparent.
A Simulation Model for Bloodcholesterol
Dynamics and Related Disorders
Cholesterol metabolism and other factors affecting its dynamics
comprise a complex system. The goal of this study is to construct a
system dynamics simulation model that can generate long term dynamics
of cholesterol metabolism in healthy and hypercholesterolemic subjects,
with respect to body weight, diet, and exercise. For both healthy and
hypercholesterolemic subjects, the model generates realistic behavior
patterns for different types of blood cholesterol and body weight. It is
shown in this study that a person can have healthier cholesterol levels by
changing her diet and/or doing more exercise. Also it’s observed that
exercise is more effective than diet even in cases when the subject does
not lose weight. In the case of hypercholesterolemic patients, the model
effectively mimics the way typical drugs work and shows how the
patient can reach healthier cholesterol levels.
Foreign Direct Investment and Spillovers in Seed
Sector Development
The role of foreign direct investment and intellectual property rights in
economic development is discussed widely in the literature. However, an
integrating framework is missing to assess the role of FDI and IPR for
agricultural devel This paper i ‘ork to assess
the role of FDI and IPR for seed sector development in developing
countries. The impact assessment is carried out with a System Dynamics
model that shows local capacity development to develop new seed
varieties in the scenario of a multinational company penetrating the
market and spillovers occurring. Simulation runs reveal the impact of
IPR on the quantity technology transferred by multinational companies
and on spillovers. The development path of the local industry depends
crucially on the capacity of the local seed sector when the multinational
company enters. A pattern for seed sector development is derived.
a fram
Italy facing the EU Emissions Trading Scheme:
some scenarios by the ICE model
This paper focuses on Italy in the context of the Kyoto Protocol.
According to the Annex I to the last National Allocation Plan (NAP),
Italy's emissions are 95 Mt. CO2 eq. above the Kyoto target of -6.5%,
i.e. 19% over the goal. This paper proposes a critical analysis of the
Government plan and NAP (National Allocation Plan) based on the
analysis of recent Italian energy history and a wide set of policy
measures that have been stated in formal documents and not
implemented. The study is performed using the ICE (Italy's Carbon
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 45
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Fabio Andrés Diaz Pabon
fa-diaz@ uniandes.edu.co
Universidad de los Andes
Calle 68 #70C-73
Cundinamarca
Colombia
Marcel Dick
m.dick@ frankfurt-school.de
Frankfurt School of Finance & Mgt
Sonnemannstr 9-11
60314 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
James K. Doyle
doyle@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Dept of Social Science
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
Emissions) model. ICE generates energy and carbon emission paths up
to 2020 and elaborates sensitivity analysis on caps, carbon prices, and
other variables. In particular, the research focuses on the Italian power
sector under alternative scenarios of emissions and caps. A conclusion of
our analysis is that a significant purchase of carbon credits on the
international ET market is necessary. Given the troubled Italian public
finance situation, buying carbon credits could represent an unplanned,
and maybe not feasible, heavy burden.
Magical Realism? The Evolution of Paramilitary
Forces in Colombia
This article analyzes the evolution of paramilitary forces in Colombia,
and how under successive efforts from the Colombian government to
tackle problems related to the lack of state presence in the country
(particularly the country-side) there have been successive bullwhip
effects around those efforts. These unintended consequences have
emerged as a result of the inertias related to the socio-political system of
Colombia, and how the paramilitary forces have adapted themselves and
rooted their “institutions” to the new environmental conditions of
Colombia. To analyze these inertias and the bullwhip effects system
dynamics is used.
Reducing income volatility through better
resource-sharing policies: The case of the
investment banking industry
This paper is based on the hypothesis that income volatility is influenced
by endogenous resource sharing policies. The effect of competition on
internal resources on income volatility is examined using the case of the
investment banking industry. A fter analyzing income volatilities of
different industries, specific characteristics of investment banks are
illustrated guided by the service production theory. A fter this, the
income volatility of two product groups of investment banks is analyzed
on an industry wide level. To gain deeper insight into the competition on
a shared resource the two-shower model of Morecroft et al. is analyzed.
By di ing the ad: ions of a lation into an i banking
context, a stylized causal loop diagram is derived. In this last step, a
product group is identified and the real internal production data is broken
down into primary and secondary business units is analyzed. The results
show first indications of a competition from primary and secondary units
on shared sales teams.
Design of a Master of Science Degree Program in
System Dynamics at WPI
Graduate degree programs in system dynamics are rare and thus of
critical importance to the future of the field of system dynamics.
However, to a large extent such programs have not yet been made
46 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Ken Parsons
kparsons@ wpi.edu
WPI
27 Washington Park
Maplewood NJ 07040
USA
Richard G. Dudley
richard.dudley@ attglobal.net
14845 SW Murray Scholls Dr Ste 110
PMB 239
Beaverton OR 97007-9237
USA
Jorge A. Duran Encalada
jorgea.duran@ udlap.mx
Universidad de las Americas Puebla
College of Business Administration
AP No 100
Cholula Puebla 72820 Mexico
Alberto Paucar-Caceres
a.paucar@ mmu.ac.uk
Manchester Metropolitan University
Business School Aytoun Building
Aytoun Street
Manchester M1 3GH UK
transparent to the system dynamics community as a whole. The present
paper describes the design and rationale for one such program, WPI's M.
S. degree program in system dynamics. The goal of the paper is to invite
feedback from the SD community about our specific program as well as
to facilitate wider discussion about the appropriate content, design, and
pedagogy of degree programs and courses in system dynamics.
A Little REDD Model: Reducing Emissions from
Deforestation and Forest Degradation
A simple model allows a rapid comparison of some typical policy
scenarios which might be considered under international programs to
avoid CO2 emissions caused by forest clearing (Reducing Emissions
from D. and Forest D 1 ). These REDD policy
scenarios can also include consideration of CO2 stored in forest
products. The value of avoided emissions can also be determined if
expected carbon prices are included. The model focuses on specific
simple scenario comparisons. The paper also discusses feedback effects
within larger scale setting of CO2 offset availability, CO2 price and
emissions reductions.
A System Dynamic Model to Examine Students’
No-continuation Trends: A Mexican and British
Cases
Universities (and funding bodies) have been trying to tackle high rates of
no-continuation of students in higher education. This paper presents the
results of a preliminary investigation into the different factors affecting
‘non-continuation’ (or its other side, ‘retention’ ) of students in higher
education institutions. For this purpose, we sketch a systems dynamics
(SDy) model and we plan to use data from Universidad de las Americas,
Puebla, Mexico and Manchester Metropolitan University, UK, to run the
model. We report on relevant literature in the area of the managing
retention by assembling a list of retention-related terms; then, relevant
models developed to map students’ satisfaction, are reviewed. A SDy
model that captures the factors affecting the transit of students’ from
to is d; these factors are synthesised into
four sectors as the core of the SDy model: Introduction; Retention;
Motivators; and Finance sector. The study is in a developmental stage,
we expect to implement the model when data is collected. In this paper,
we only report on the literature reviewed and we sketched the SDy
model. This investigation, when completed, will provide a tool to
understand the factors affecting students’ non-continuation and will help
education administrators to manage their retention.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 47
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Varun Dutt
varundutt@ yahoo.com
Carnegie Mellon University
4609 Winthrop Street
DDMLab
Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA
Cleotilde G onzalez
conzalez@ andrew.cmu.edu
Carnegie Mellon University
Social and Decision Sciences Dept
5000 Forbes Ave Porter Hall 208
Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA
Sondoss E] Sawah
s.elsawah@ student adfa.edu.au
Australian Defence Force Academy/UNSW
School of ITEE
Northcott Drive
Campbell ACT 2612 Australia
Alan Charles McLucas
a.mclucas@ adfa.edu.au
Australian Defence Force Academy/UNSW
6 Glossop Crescent
Campbell ACT 2612
Australia
Jason Mazanov
jamazanov@ adfa.edu.au
Australian Defence Force Academy/UNSW
Northcott Dr
Campbell Park ACT 2600
Australia
Setting a Target to Increase or Reduce Carbon-
Dioxide C oncentration is Not the Same: Lessons
for Climate Change
It has been observed that Kyoto protocol has defined CO2 emissions
reduction goals that are less than what they should be. On the other hand,
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has set CO2 concentration
stabilization goals that are definitely attainable in the near future but
much above the current CO2 concentration than being below. In this
study, we investigate reasons behind these real world observations in
climate policies using an interactive simulation in a relevant climate
change context (Dynamic Climate Change Simulator or DCCS). DCCS
was used in a laboratory experiment to test participants’ control of CO2
concentration to a realistic goal over 200 simulated years. Participants
confronted two different but symmetric initial values of CO2
concentration stock that provided different degrees of task difficulty:
below the goal (minimum difficulty), and above the goal (maximum
difficulty). Results show that on account of task difficulty participant
performance remained poor under all conditions in the task when
compared to the optimal performance. Also, participants starting above
the goal had poorer performance than those starting below the goal.
Reasons for these results were found in different from optimal
participant emissions trajectories across different conditions. Real world
policy implications of this research are discussed.
Communication about Water Management in
the Australian Capital Territory: A System
Dynamics Modelling Approach
The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) is increasingly threatened by
Tisks to its water security driven by climate change effects, growing
population and water-intensive lifestyle. As an inland territory, the ACT
has few supply options which are economically and ecologically
expensive. Demand management strategies seek to deliver sustainable
consumption patterns. Effective communication is an essential part for
achieving resilient reductions in consumption by raising public
understanding of the problem in order to inform decision making,
stimulate public dialogue and ultimately promote behavioural changes.
Whereas System Dynamics is a promising approach for learning and
ication about water its potential for
communicating systemic risks to the public has not been fully exploited
yet. This ongoing research aims to build a SD Interactive Leaming
Environment (ILE) to help residents in the ACT to develop a systemic
perspective about water management inherent complexity and
uncertainty. This paper describes a structured modelling process adopted
to build the model through a series of knowledge elicitation cycles,
including interviews with stakeholders and electronic workbooks. A key
lesson can be taken from our experience through this modelling effort
that the modelling process must be flexible and adaptable with several
research and real world trade-offs.
48 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Ahmed El-Tagy
a_tagy@ hotmail.com
Hiteknofal
43 R Section 6 Zahraa Maadi Box 50
New Maadi 11742 Cairo
Egypt
Nadiye Ozlem Erdil
nadiye@ binghamton.edu
SUNY Binghamton
2612 Princeton Drive
Vestal NY 13850 USA
C. Robert Emerson
remerson@ binghamton.edu
State Univ of New Y ork Binghamton
Dept Systems Science & Industrial Eng
PO Box 6000
Binghamton NY 13902 USA
Haleh Farhang Matin
haleh.matin@ gmail.com
IUST
Iran University of Science and Technology
S.M. Seyedhosseini
seyedhoseini@ yahoo.com
Iran University of Science and Technology
Managing Marketing Multi-C hannel C onflict to
Maximize Profit in The Egyptian C onsumer
Electronics market
In todays global competition, companies are obliged to go to market
using multiple channels strategy for various reasons. However, channel
conflict is inevitable in multi-channel structures causing sharp decreases
in the demand of one or more channels. In this article, a system dynamic
model was developed to simulate the complex multiple channel structure
and various factors that affect the demand and channel conflict. The
model aims to simulate the real situation of the supplier decision maker
who has to take fast decisions in one of the various variables that he
controls to achieve maximum profits and minimum channel conflict. The
model was validated using real data of a major consumer electronics
supplier in Egypt that has traditional distributors and Hypermarkets as
two different channels. Various policies of inventory allocations in each
channel and different promotion rates were tested in order to achieve the
objective of maximizing supplier profit and minimizing channel conflict.
It was found that the policy of allocating the inventory with the equal
quantity in both channels with a promotion rate of one promotion per
month in the hypermarkets is the optimal policy.
Simulation Modeling of Electronic Health
Records A doption in the U.S. Healthcare System
Increasing the efficiency of the healthcare system in the United States is
an important subject due to rapidly rising costs. Among many
propositions to improve the operation of the system, adoption of
Electronic Health Records is widely discussed. This study uses a system.
dynamics methodology to develop a simulation model of the adoption
process that will allow for the exploration of policies. This paper
presents the development and the preliminary findings of this model.
Service industries lean assessment methodology
using dynamic systems approach
Service in world class is one of the important subjects that most of the
service industries have an especial attention to follow it. World wide
development of service concept is dealing with lean approach
techniques. The basis of lean approach is made of identification and
waste (muda) elimination. Because of both customer and personnel's
simultaneous attendance in process, as well as process waste and as a
nature of service, seven root wastes are defined by using system.
thinking, pressure ion model and envi 1 observation.
The aim of this paper is to design a dynamic leaning assessment model
in service industries by using system dynamic. It identifies weak and
strong points and helps to design and develop a suitable strategy to
change current situation to world class service in future. This research is
based on a case study in Maskan bank. The basics of codifying this
dynamic model in service industries are profitable service chain
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 49
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Diana Fisher
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School
7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008
USA
Brigit Fokkinga
B.Fokkinga@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Inge L. Bleijenbergh
ibleijenbergh@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Institute for Management Research
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Jac A. M. Vennix
j.vennix@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Andrew Ford
forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
Environmental Science
PO Box 644430
Pullman WA 99164-4430
SA
conceptual model, balanced assessment technique and system thinking.
In the other word, lean approach is effective in service industries
(leading to profit and income) When it can be compatible with service
profit chain. Research contribution is presenting a model based on
system thinking, service profit chain and balanced assessment structure
to leaning assessment service.
How Well Can Students Determine Simple
Growth and Decay Patterns From a Diagram?
Six of the 35 national (United States) mathematics standards for high
school (ages 15 to 18) instruction relate very well to the use of system
dynamics modeling methods, especially in algebra. A very important
concept, recognizing the underlying factors that produce different
patterns of behavior could be considered a unifying theme throughout
algebra, pre-calculus, and calculus. Most of the assignments given to
algebra students do not ask students to consider this underlying theme
(growth/decay pattern) except when studying a particular function. They
never combine functions they have studied in isolation to determine
potentially new growth or decay patterns. An assessment was given to 62
advanced algebra students to determine if they could predict the growth
or decay patter for six different scenarios, given a STELLA diagram and
a few numbers. This paper explains the assessment given and presents
the results produced by the 62 students.
Group model building effectiveness: a qualitative
method to assess changes in mental models
Group model building is supposed to support the development of shared
mental models. This paper i the application of aq i
method to assess changes in mental models as result of Group Model
Building. A quantitative measurement of effectiveness of Group Model
Building has been applied by Rouwette (2003). Recently some
researchers have been experimenting with a qualitative approach towards
measuring effectiveness, which is useful for measuring individual cases
and small groups (Dwyer and Stave, 2008, McCardle-Keurentjes, 2008).
This paper focuses on the foundation of such a qualitative method from a
methodological viewpoint and applies it to a particular case. In this way
we aim to introduce a potential standard for evaluating changes in mental
models in single cases and to open up the possibility to systematically
compare single cases.
Simulating a Thermal Water Quality Trading
Market for Classroom Education
Thermal water quality trading is an emerging tool for managing water
temperature. Trading programs give point source thermal polluters the
option to comply with effluent restrictions by paying nearby landowners
50 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Asmeret Bier
asmeret@ wsu.edu
Washington State University
460 NE Maiden Lane #5
Pullman WA 99163
Alireza Forouzan
ali_forozan@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Tran
Pouyan Foroughi
pouyanforoughi@ gmail.com
Sharif University Of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Iran
Hamid Firooz
hmdfirooz@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Tran
Carlos J aime Franco
cjfranco@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Carrera 80 #65 223 Bloque M8
Medellin
Colombia
Maria Camila Ochoa
mcochoa@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Cra 80 #65 -223 B1 M8A
Medellin
Colombia
Ana Maria Florez
amflorez@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Cra 80 #65 -223 BI M8A
Medellin
Colombia
to plant shade trees. The shade trees cool the water, offsetting the
thermal pollution emitted by the point source. One of the main obstacles
to the propagation of these markets is the problem of convincing
landowners to participate. Simulation can help reduce stakeholder
barriers and explore the potential benefits of trading. Simulation can help
d markets structures and ease the i of
market complexity. Simulation can also allow participants to explore
potential market outcomes under different scenarios and policy designs.
The Riparian Shading Simulator exercise was created to allow students
to play the roles of land owners and point source polluters.The classroom.
exercises create a common experience which sets the stage for concrete
discussions about how the market could work within the larger system.
The classroom exercises have also set the stage for system dynamics
modeling of alternative market designs.
Effects of Payment Delay on the Performance of
Private Insurance Companies: a System
dynamics A pproach
Appropriate management, policy design and suitable infrastructure are
vital for making insurances companies to be successful in the industry.
One of the critical issues in insurance management is the number of
clients. The main determinants of this variable are the delay in paying
ion, tariff and ad\ Thus majority of managers hope
to reduce payment delay, tariff and increase advertisement. But in Iran,
regarding to the governmental rules tariff is forced to companies
dingly. Also the privatization of i industry is one of the
government programs, which makes this obligation intolerable. In this
paper we attempt to model the present condition of Iran's insurance
industry and simulate the impact of payment delay on clients' behavior
by the help of System Dynamic. The model is then used to simulate the
ways, which pioneer countries applied in insurance industry, to control
the positive and negative effects of the mentioned phenomenon.
System Dynamics A pproach to Biofuels in
Colombia
The biofuels production in Colombia is growing in recent years but low
investment in refining capacity, crops and difficulties to transport the
biofuel to the distribution centers are obstacles to fulfill the demand. In
order to analyze these problems a System Dynamics model was
constructed for learning about the system behavior and for understanding
the response mechanisms to different policies from the production side.
An analysis of the current government policies as far as incentives to
refining facilities was developed in this paper. According to the model
results, alternative or complementarily policies could be appropriated to
accelerate the growth in the supply side of biofuels in Colombia.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 51
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, A-F
Sebastian Franco
se-franc@ uniandes.edu.co
Universidad de los Andes
Bogota
Colombia
Fabio Andrés Diaz Pabon
fa-diaz@ uniandes.edu.co
Universidad de los Andes
Calle 68 #70C-73
Cundinamarca
Colombia
Andres Mejia
jmejia@ uniandes.edu.co
Universidad de los Andes
Cr1 No 18A-10
Bogota
Colombia
Gonzalo Mejia
gmejia@ uniandes.edu.co
Universidad de los Andes
Cr1 No 18A-10 Bogota
Colombia
Shiro Fukushima
shiro_fukushima@ omron.co,jp
Doshisha University
16-7 Shiro Okukaiinji Nagaokakyo City
Kyoto 617-0853
Japan
Kaoru Yamaguchi
kaoru3@ muratopia.org
Doshisha University
521 Minamidani Aihara
Goshiki-cho Sumoto Hyogo 656-1325
Japan
A System Dynamics approach to understand an
agricultural supply chain in C olombia.
Simulation modeling has become a tool to understand and improve
decision making in complex systems. In this particular case we analyze
the mango supply chain in a Colombian region through System
Dynamics. The system is characterized by high intermediation and lack
of alternatives for the growers. Nowadays, the Colombian government is
implementing a number of policies to both increase the living standards
of producers in the country side and bring to cheaper food to the poorest
areas of the populated areas. The main idea of this paper was to simulate
such policies and study their impact. Through System Dynamics we
found a number of problems related to the supply capacity of the system
(due to the seasonality of the crops), that mainly affects the revenue of
the growers of that region.
Is Japanese Manufacturing Style (so-called
Monozukuri) really robust? - A Causal Loop
Diagram and Modeling A pproach -
Monozukuri (Japanese Manufacturing Style) is said to be one of the
specialties of Japan as Ezra F. Vogel pointed out in his "Japan As
Number One". With the application of causal loop diagram analysis in
systems thinking, this paper tries to reconsider the structure which gives
strength and weakness of Monozukuri. The Monozukuri model is
developed by unifying various elements which has been conventionally
argued in various academic areas. There are three layers of positive
causal loops (strength): professional spirits on Monozukuri at an
individual level, trust-based style of management as an in-house
management-policy at an individual corporate level and trust-based
transactions on R&D and parts-supplier-network (Keiretsu) at an inter-
corporate level However, these strength loops are shown to be easily
tumed out to be weak ones. This paper identifies five exogenous
variables that turn the strength to the weakness. Trust-based management
based on Monozukuni is shown to be superior to the Western-style
contract-based management, because the latter brings just a temporary
increase in profits, but works as a negatively in the long run. The
companies which adopted trust-based style of management have
robustness in profit to the technological standardization. Japanese
company should continuously improve the structure of strength.
52 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Pascal J. Gambardella
pgambard@ csc.com
CSC
12708 Chilton Circle
Silver Spring MD 20904
USA
Gabriela G. Gastelum Reynoso
ggastel@ hotmail.com
Universidad de las Americas Puebla
Casa 5D Zona D
Santa Catarina Martir
Cholula Puebla 72820 Mexico
Enrique Palou Garcia
enrique.palou@ udlap.mx
Universidad de las Americas
Engineering School
Santa Catarina Martir
Cholula Puebla 72820 Mexico
Aurelio Lopez Malo
aurelio.lopezm@ udlap.mx
Universidad de las Americas
Engineering School
Santa Catarina Martir
Cholula Puebla 72820 Mexico
George A. Geistauts
afgag@ uaa.alaska.edu
University of Alaska Anchorage
College of Business and Public Policy
3211 Providence Dr
Anchorage AK 99508-4614
USA
Elisha Remington Baker
aferb1@ uaa.alaska.edu
University of Alaska Anchorage
3211 Providence Dr
Anchorage AK 99508
USA
Application of Strategy Dynamics: Starbucks
Corporation
Strategy Dynamics (Warren, 2008) provides a quantitative, resource-
based approach to understanding a firms performance over time. This
paper describes a strategy analysis of Starbucks Corporation using
Strategy Dynamics. It demonstrates the usefulness of this approach in
addressing business performance issues for a real-world company. The
strategic architecture, a key artifact of the approach, is a model that
captures the interactions of a firms tangible resources, management
decisions, and external factors. Starbucks strategic architecture for its
retail store business was developed using employee, store, and financial
data from Starbucks annual reports and other public information. The
strategic architecture and related models were used to explore several
issues that can influence Starbucks strategy: customers with less
discretionary income, expanding too fast, impact of staff layoffs on the
quality of service, getting and maintaining loyal customers, and rivalry
with competitors.
System Dynamics: A Complementary Tool for
Predictive Microbiology
One of the most important concems for food industry is safety.
Predictive Microbiology is the application of mathematical models to
describe microbial behavior in order to prevent food spoilage as well as
food-bome illness. Because of complexity of microbial behavior and
food systems, Predictive Microbiology presents some limitations.
System Dynamics could be a useful alternative and complementary tool
to model and predict microbiological behavior in foods while providing
a graphical interface and structures linked with a series of equations, to
clarify and improve ive Predictive Microbiology descriptions.
Causal Loop Modeling of Ethics Force
Structures: An Exploration
This paper explores the use of causal loop modeling to depict the
structure of forces that influence ethical behavior. Our goal is to
demonstrate that this kind of modeling can capture and show the
complexity inherent in ethics situations. The desire to increase ethical
performance is part of a system which includes the desire to increase
other aspects of performance, such as competitiveness, profitability, job
securoty, wealth, etc. Three examples are used to demonstrate the
approach. The first model depicts the generic framework of forces that
shape personal ethics behavior. The second model depicts some of the
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 53
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Ted Eschenbach
tedel@ak net
TGE Consulting
4376 Rendezvous Circle
Anchorage AK 99504
USA
Nicholas C. G eorgantzas
georgantzas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University Business Schools
113 W 60th Street Suite LL 617-D
New Y ork NY 10023-7484
USA
Evangelos Katsamakas
katsamakas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University
113 West 60th Street
School of Business 6th floor
New Y ork NY 10023
USA
Dominik Sotowiej
dsolowiej@ gmail.com
Stanislaw Staszic College of
Public Administration
Navid Ghaffarzadegan
navidg@ gmail.com
University at Albany
122 Manning Blvd
Albany NY 12203 USA
Laura J. Black
Ijblack@ alum.mitedu
Montana State University
PO Box 3662
Bozeman MT 59772-3662 USA
Don Greer
drgreer@ greerblackcompany.com
Greer Black Company
PO Box 3607
Bozeman MT 59772-3607 USA
David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
101 Milne Hall
135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA
forces that led to the current sub-prime mortgage crisis. The third model
focuses on factors and causal loops that can combine to shape the ethical
behavior of a business executive. Insights into ethics influences can be
gained from the modeling process itself, and from examining the
resulting model structures. These insights can provide guidance for
policy makers and managers focused on raising ethics behavior.
Although our models focus on business ethics in developed free-market
economies, the approach is readily applicable to other contexts, such as
analysis of the forces impacting on ethics in the professions or in
government.
Giddens Globalization: Exploring Dynamic
Implications
The dynamic complexity of the social phenomena that people bundle
together and call globalization accentuate a divisive public discourse
with strong arguments for and against the globalization process and its
effects. To help unearth the dynamic processes that support or inhibit
globalization, this article shows the recursive relations and mutual causal
links among technology, institutional structures, beliefs and social
behavior, which sociologist Anthony Giddens has posited on
globalization. Giddens' sociological analysis of the globalization process
incorporates not only favorable conditions, such as the development of
telecommunications technology and world economy integration, but also
political transformations, transnational corporation growth, and cultural
effects. These concems outline the components of a system dynamics
modeling example, the experimental and model analysis results of which
allow reflecting on Giddens' sociological globalization positions.
Path Dependency and the Role of Delays in
Creating Shared Understanding in Dyadic
Communication
Informed by a theory of symbolic interactionism, this research explores
the di ics of dyadic ications within which und ding is
socially constructed. Based upon an earlier analysis of a case-study
investigation in a large multi-disciplinary governmental project with
multiple contractors and subcontractors, we modify, simulate, and
analyze a dynamic model of dyadic communications. Our simulation
results support the previous findings and, in addition, underscore the role
of path dependency in creating shared understanding; that is, “first”
interpretations affected by random and imprecise messages can influence
subsequent shared understanding and meaning construction significantly.
Finally, our sensitivity analysis sheds light on the effects of decision and
action delay and observation and orientation delay. Delays, which in part
represent how responsive a partner is, can have counter-intuitive effects
on players’ convergence or divergence in a dyadic ication. Our
study shows that reducing observation and orientation delay can be
considered as a leverage point for communication convergence, while
increasing decision and action delay may facilitate convergence.
54 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Aref Gharakhani
aref.gharakhani@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology
Graduate School of Business and Econ
Sharif University of Technology
Teymouri Ave 11365 Tehran Iran
Ali Naghi Mashayekhi
mashayekhi@ alum.mit.edu
Sharif University of Technology
Grad School of Management and Econ.
PO Box 11365-8639 Azadi Avenue
11365 Tehran Iran
Mirmojtaba G haribi
mojtaba.gharibi@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Ave
Tehran Iran
Soheil G hili
soheil_ir1986@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Iran
Arash Pourhabib
arash.pourhabib@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
1100 Hensel Drive Apartment Y 34.
College Station TX 77840-1695
USA
Mohammad Akbarpour
mohamwad@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Iran
Towards a better understanding of pension
systems
Pension systems are vital components of every economic system. During
the last two decades, population aging and financial insufficiencies in
many countries forced governments, corporations and private pension
schemes to conduct reform to sustain their pension systems. This paper
investigates different Pay-as-you-go and funded pension schemes in
order to provide a better understanding of the dynamics and the structure
behind a pension system. Fully funded and unfunded schemes are
modeled in a generic form. Issues of stability, population dependency
and redistribution are discussed according to model structure and
simulation results. System dynamics provides and efficient tool to
understand the nature of each scheme.
Dynamics of Workforce in Iranian National
Petrochemical Company
Iranian National Petrochemical Company (NPC) has recently started a
fast development. Because of the imbalance in development of NPC,
despite of its reputation and history, is not able to recruit qualified
workforce. Managers concem the future of the industry as this flow of
low qualified human resources accedes to the top of the organizational
pyramid. In this paper, a system dynamics model has been used to
consider the impact of structural devel on human of
NPC. The results of simulation show that if managers of NPC desire the
industry to grow faster than a particular rate, it will finally collapse. It is
a quite counter intuitive result. A number of insights have been obtained
through the simulations and some practical policies have been suggested
and simulated.
A Stock Flow Method for Modeling
Heterogeneity in Household Demand and its
Effects on Real Estate Cycles
AB models are capable of capturing heterogeneity in the attributes of
agents in real complex systems by considering one variable for each
agent. DE models, however, have not this capability. In this paper we
introduce a Stock-Flow technique for modeling | ity in the
attributes of agents in DE models by adding only one stock variable to
the Real Estate Economy (REE) model. Afterwards, we investigate two
insights of our heterogeneous formulation. Firstly, we show that the
“transaction time”, in contrast with homogeneous models, does not play
a significant role in system’s behavior. Our second claim is a surprising
result which contradicts the current literature of the REE. There is a
consensus between scholars that the more supply lag, the greater
amplitude of price oscillations in REE. On the contrary, we claim that
not only an increase in the construction supply lag does not necessarily
lead to a more intensive price oscillation, but also it might lead to a
damping oscillation of price in the REE model.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 55
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Cleotilde G onzalez
conzalez@ andrew.cmu.edu
Carnegie Mellon University
Department of Social and Decision Sciences
5000 Forbes Ave Porter Hall 208
Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA
Angela Brunstein
angelab@ cmu.edu
Carnegie Mellon University
Department of Social and Decision Sciences
4609 Winthrop St 1st Fl Suite
Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA
Steven L. Kanter
kanter@ pittedu
Univ of Pittsburgh School of Medicine
M-240 Scaife Hall
Pittsburgh PA USA.
Andrew Goodwin
Andrew.Goodwin@ dsto.defence.gov.au
Defence Scientific and Technical Org
Port Melboume
Melboume Victoria
Australia
Rod MacDonald
Rodney.MacD onald@ dsto.defence.gov.au
Defence Scientific and Technical Org
Port Melboume
Melboume Victoria
Australia
Tim Haslett
thaslett@ bigpond.netau
Monash University
1/164 Highett Street
Richmond 3121 Victoria
Australia
Alan K. Graham
alan.k.graham@ alum.mit.edu
PA Consulting Group
68 Allen Street
Lexington MA 02421
USA
On the Role of Medical Experience for
Overcoming the Stocks and Flows Failure
Accumulation is a fundamental concept in dynamic systems that has
been shown to be very unintuitive and hard to understand even for highly
educated adults and very simple systems. The only intervention that is
reported to improve performance for judging stocks and flows for
accumulation systems is practice combined with corrective feedback.
This study investigated whether experience in a task domain - namely
medical education - can advance students’ performance for judging
accumulation within their task domain. We compared judgments of 180
medical students and 180 students from other fields for stock-flow
problems from the medical field and from generic problems. As
expected, medical students performed better than non-medical students
for both medical and generic problems but still performed very poor
indicating how hard it is to understand dynamic systems. As their non-
medical fellows, medical students tend to assume that the level of a stock
would follow the development of its flows.
The Dynamics of Fleet Usage
This paper presents a model that was developed in the Defence Science
and Technology Organization (DSTO) in Australia. It is a general model
designed to provide insight into the long-term fleet management
dynamics of aircraft. The use of system dynamics modelling is an
innovative approach to this problem and at the centre of the model is the
relationship between aircraft serviceability and usage rates. The paper
and the model will assist the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) to
address a number of specific fleet management issues: * A geing
platforms and the dynamics of degrading serviceability of existing
platforms, * The effects of modification and upgrades programs, *
Understanding the effects of changing demand (flying rates) and non-
steady state operation. The model presented in this paper contains
hypothetical data as real figures on Availability and Serviceability of
aircraft in Australia is classified. However, the model demonstrates the
fundamental dynamics that are in play during the life of any given
aircraft.
Methodological C hanges Needed to Meet the
World's Grand Challenges
A companion paper to this one identified four "Grand Challenges" for
system dynamics. This paper describes the methodological changes
seemingly needed to meet those challenges, describing some of the
current precedents and rationale for each. The more technical changes
are far more explicit model purpose, use of time series, representation of
actors' mental models, and working with multiple models. The changes
in professional matters are far more soft science expertise, publication in
56 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Oliver Grasl
oliver.grasl@ transentis.com
transentis management consulting GmbH
Friedrich Otto Strasse 2
D-65183 Wiesbaden
Germany
Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de
University of St. Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
9000 St Gallen Switzerland
Markus Schwaninger
markus.schwaninger@ unisg.ch
University of St Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
CH-9000 St Gallen Switzerland
Andreas Grofler
agroe@ gmx.de
Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Postbus 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
the language of the public and government, incenting synergistic
research, and evolving an open-source online curriculum. These changes
do not much alter the core of system dynamics but expand the repertoire
of expert modeling activities substantially.
Key performance indicators in professional
service firms - a dynamic perspective
Four major factors affect the performance of project based professional
service firms: The ratio of senior to junior staff referred to as the firm's
leverage, the average fee charged per unit of time, the percentage of
billable time referred to as utilisation, and the profit margin. This paper
takes a holistic approach to analysing the performance of these KPI's at a
particular professional service firm based on the time senior staff
allocates to the following tasks: Project acquisition and delivery, contact
and customer maintenance, service innovation and development and
hiring junior staff.
A Validation Methodology for System Dynamics
Models
Quality is a critically important issue in almost every discipline. The
literature in the field of System Dynamics has bred a number of
contributions concerning tests for the validation of simulation models
and its epistemological foundations. To date, however, little has been
said about a validation methodology for System ee models, even
for simulations in gen-eral. By valid: we
the systematic elicitation, description, and reflection of issues related to
the subject of validation. The papers contribution is to initiate the
development of a validation methodology. We explicitly address three
topics: Complexity engineering through validation tests, integrated
validation process, and finally the decision to cease validation efforts.
The first defines validation tests ding to their ility to ac-count
for a certain level of model complexity; the second designs a validation
process which addresses the domains of validation (structure, behavior,
context validation) and the levels of resolution (micro, meso, macro)
integratively and iteratively. And third, the cession decision creates a
heuristic method for the saturation of a System Dynamics model and
conceptually defines when to cease with validation efforts. The paper
concludes by providing further directions of research about a validation
methodology.
Intuitive vs. Deliberate Decision Making a
Dynamic Setting: An Experimental A pproach
The purpose of the poster is to discuss the effects of intuitive versus
deliberate decision making in a dynamic task. An experimental setting is
used to study this question; three experimental groups are distinguished:
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 57
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Etiénne A.J. A. Rouwette
e.rouwette@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Jac A. M. Vennix
j.vennix@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Andreas Grofler
agroe@ gmx.de
Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Postbus 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Alexander Zock
alexander.zock@ ecad-aviation.de
European Ctr for Aviation Development
Lise-Meitner- Strasse 10
62493 Darmstadt
Germany
Burak Gineralp
guneralp.burak@ gmail.com
Yale University
205 Prospect Street
New Haven CT 06511 USA
Michael Reilly
Stanford University
Department of Earth System Science
397 Panama Mall
Stanford CA 94305 USA
Karen Seto
Yale University
School of Forestry and Env Studies
205 Prospect Street
New Haven CT 06511 USA
immediate decision-making (only limited time for cognitive processing),
considered decision-making (time for deliberate cognitive processing),
and distracted decision-making (during which intuitive cognitive
processing can occur). The experimental stimulus is a simulator based on
the Kaibab Plateau model. More than 100 subjects were tested in a pre-
test, which led to a substantial revision of the original experimental
design. With the new experimental design, we assume to find significant
differences between the three groups conceming their decision quality.
The value of the study lies in the fact that it connects to a recent
discussion in psychology and transfers this to a core interest of the
system dynamics ci ity: decisi iking in situations with
dynamic complexity. Keywords: dynamic decision-making, intuitive
information processing, dynamic complexity, experiment.
Supporting Long-term Personnel Planning of a
Service Provider
The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate, how a dynamic aging chain
model can support strategic decisions in personnel planning. More
specifically, we use a system dynamics model to improve the recruitment
and training process in a large German service provider in the wider field
of logistics. The key findings are that the aging chain of service
operators within the company is affected by a variety of delays, for
instance for training, promotion, and ordering of personnel, and that the
structure of the planning process generates cyclic phases of personnel
surplus and shortage. The discussion is based on an in-depth case study,
which was conducted in the service company in 2008. Implications are
that planning processes have to be fine-tuned to account for delays in the
aging chain; the simulation model provides a tool for gaining insights
into the problem and for improving the actual human resource planning
process.
An Operational Framework for Seeing and
Simulating Feedbacks in Land Change Science
Feedbacks, nonlinearities, and time delays are at the heart of dynamic
interactions of socio-economic and biophysical systems. Land use land
cover change (LUCC) is a significant component of these dynamic
interactions. Land change science community recognized the need to go
beyond static depictions of feedback processes. This requires explicit
focus on the embedded feedbacks within and across scales as influential,
endogenous structural sources of the observed behavior pattems in
integrated social and biophysical systems. We present an operational
framework that takes its strength from its clear emphasis on nonlinear
feedback interactions as drivers of LUCC. The framework addresses
both micro- and macro-level processes by employing complementary use
of system modeling and spatially-explicit discrete-choice modeling. We
demonstrate the potential of the approach on a rapidly urbanizing region,
Pearl River Delta (PRD) in South China. To this end, we employ our
systemic framework and identify the most influential feedbacks and
linkages impacting the urban land conversion over the course of urban
and economic growth as experienced in PRD. We also discuss the
58 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Mona Hajialiasghar
mona_haa@ yahoo.com
Iranian Investment Co
No 61 Kosha Alley Shah Nazari St
Madar Sq
Tehran Iran
Reinhard Haller
reinhard.haller@ ivy.tuwien.ac.at
Vienna University of Technology
Gusshausstrasse 30
1040 Wien
Austria
Anna Mayerthaler
anna.mayerthaler@ tuwien.ac.at
Vienna University of Technology
Ottakringerstrasse 19/19
1160 Vienna
Austria
Guenter Emberger
guenter.emberger@ tuwien.ac.at
Vienna University of Technology
Institute of Transport Planning
Gusshausstrasse 30/2
A- 1040 Vienna
Austria
Jason K. Hansen
jasonh@ unm.edu
University of New Mexico
MSC05 3060
1 University of New Mexico
Albuquerque NM 87131
USA
potential of systems and use of ry methods in
advancing land change science both in theory and in practice. Our
remarks, invariably, have implications for sustainability science as well.
A model for overreaction and underreaction of
stockholders in Tehran Stock Exchange using
system dynamics method
Overreaction and underreaction of stock holders in response to
information and news are the events which challenge efficiency of
capital market. Using EPS modifications of companies represent on TSE
during 2006 to 2008 years, this research surveys over reaction and under
reaction of stock holders in response to new information. Finally,
utilizing system dynamics, we suggest a model to discuss these events.
Inputs of the model are as follows: earning per share - price ratio, first
earning per share of stock, time of memory, Time to change perception
and Average historical price . The model is for the facts in the companies
which have at least 20% free float and over 10% benefit modifications.
The System Dynamics of the " Invisible Hand" :
Simulating a Neoclassical Economy
It is maybe not exaggerated to state that the relation between system
dynamics and economics (and related models) fluctuated between
ignorance and open hostil-ity in the past. One plausible explanation for
this observation could be a lack of mutual understanding, which this
article aims to address. The article sets out with dynamic hypothesis
about economic equilibrium, a central concept in neoclassical
economics. It is argued that the emergence of an economic equilibrium,
ie. a balance between supply and demand, depends on the relative speed
of change within the economic system itself and its economic
environment. A model exhibiting such behaviour would arguably
conform to basic principles of sys-tem dynamics and might pave the way
for a fruitful adoption of elements of micro-economic theory in system
dynamics models. The article consists of a brief and (hopefully)
accessible exposition of neoclassical theories of consumption,
production and general equilibrium; a presentation of a numerical
general equilibrium model and the equivalent system dynamics model,
highlighting the relation between the models; an analysis of simulation
and sensi-tivity results; and conclusions with respect to the dynamic
hypothesis stated at the outset, the potential usefulness of the SD model
for applied analysis and some more theoretical conjectures.
Estimating Impacts of Water Scarcity Pricing
Water resources in Western U.S. are increasingly scarce due to
population growth and climate change that reduces water supplies. The
collision of these two realities implies that if water remains under-
priced, a likely externality is over i resource
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 59
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Tim Haslett
thaslett@ bigpond.netau
Monash University
1/164 Highett Street
Richmond 3121 Victoria Australia
Chris Ballenden
chrisjballenden@ optusnet.com.au
Ponte Consulting Group
14 Collins St Level 2
Melboume Victoria 3000 Australia
Saroj Godbole
saroj.godbole@ ponteglobal.com
Ponte Consulting Group
2/241 Burke Road
Glen Iris Victoria 3146 Australia
Kerry Walker
strudwalk@ bigpond.com
Neighbourhood Justice Centre
Collingwood Melboume A ustralia
Junaid Hassan
holdontoj@ yahoo.com
University of Bergen
Langentalstr 54
67475 Weidenthal
Germany
David Wheat
dwheat@ wheatresources.com
University of Bergen
Nedre Fjellsmug 6
5018 Bergen
Norway
exhaustion, and shortages. This paper develops a hybrid, hydro-
economic model of social welfare maximization constrained by
groundwater availability in a control theory framework. The model
provides optimal water use and the efficient price given consumer
preferences and resource constraints. The model suggest that water
prices should be at least 23 to 36 percent above current levels. We
consider one way to overcome the historical, institutional barriers to
scarcity pricing by distributing back to consumers the scarcity value
collected. Estimates of U.S. water infrastructure investment needs reach
as much as $2.2 trillion dollars over the next 30 years. Investing the
scarcity value in water infrastructure is one way to distribute excess
revenue to consumers while allocating water efficiently, essentially
solving two problems with a single policy prescription. We simulate the
model's effectiveness and identify impacts using data from Albuquerque,
New Mexico.
Using System Dynamics to Develop
Organizational L earning Process: the
Collingwood Neighbourhood J ustice C entre
The development of the Neighbourhood Justice Centre (NJC) in the
Melbourne suburb of Collingwood is a first for Australia and reflects a
universal growing interest in addressing the underlying causes of
criminal behaviour and disadvantage as well as improving access to
justice. The paper documents the findings that arose from an intervention
in the NJC that involved analysis of the NJC processes using process
maps, causal loop diagrams and systems modelling. From this analysis,
plans for organizational change were developed through a series of
workshops. The paper also documents the change in sense making
processes to include ideas of process flow, feedback systems and
causation. The processes that were modelled in the NJC have much in
common with other case management systems, particularly in hospitals
and it appeared likely that the NJC would soon be addressing the
problems Wolstenholme’ s (2007) identified where “the normal mode of
operation is beyond their safe design capacity.”.
Capturing the Dynamics of a Psychiatric Illness
of the c logical and psy: al
panic disorder (PD). It makes explicit the dynamic processes implicit in
the narrative presentations in the literature. It serves as a facilitator for
the discussion about PD for it provides an easy to- understand and
illustrative language for « to d, and hers of
different fields to critically examine, the biological, psychological, social
and cognitive aspects of PD.
The present study undertakes a partial system dynamics (SD) translation
of
60 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Wenyu Heng
hengwenyu@ gmail.com
High School A ffiliated to
Nanjing Normal University
Chaha‘er Road.
Gulou District Nanjing China
Majie Wang
wmj1991510@ hotmail.com
High School A ffiliated to
Nanjing Nonmal University
No37 Chaha'er Road
Gulou District Nanjing China
Xingjie Dai
dxjlytt@ 163.com
High School A ffliated to
Nanjing Nona University
No37 Chaha'er Road
Gulou District Nanjing China
Yufeng Ho
hyfarch@ ms32.hinet.net
Chaoyang University of Technology
PO Box 30-117
Taichung 407
Taiwan
Hsiao-Lin Wang
whl1435@ hotmail.com
Chaoyang University of Technology
Department of Landscape Architecture
PO Box 30-1177
Taichung 40760
Taiwan
Hsien-Chi Wang
hyfarchi@ yahoo.com.tw
Chaoyang University of Technology
PO Box 30-117
Taichung
Taiwan
Cheng-Chih Liu
chisester@ gmail.com
Chaoyang University of Technology
PO Box 30-117
Taichung
Taiwan
Exercise in application of System Thinking in the
water purification system
This is about the water purification system which named eco-machine
system. Based on the Model built by STELLA software, the system is
used to simulate the wastewater treatment process of Constructed
Wetland. This system can increase the amount of dissolved oxygen and
absorb nitrogen and phosphorus. Through analyzing the elements
influencing dissolved oxygen, we designed the experiment which is
divided into 4 parts of circulation: Aquarium which contains omamental
fish; physical treatment which contains oxygen increasing pump;
emerged plant absorbing nitrogen and phosphorus; submerged plant
increasing oxygen. The power of pump indicates the speed of circulation
of water. The amount of oxygen successfully increases with the help of
our water purification system in the lab. We assume that the dissolved
oxygen is the dominant indicator of the effluvium, so we consider the
increase of the dissolved oxygen as the decrease of the effluvium.
Meanwhile, all the cost we need is the electrical energy for operating
water pump, some aquatic creatures and water plants. In another words,
our eco-machine system is an efficient way to improve the water quality.
System Dynamics Model for the Sustainable
Management of Theme Park
The goal of this study is to examine the problems in making investment
decisions for tourism products from a perspective of sustainable
management and development. With System Dynamics as the basis and
the STELLA computer software as the tool, a systemic approach is
adopted and system factors identified using the Fuzzy Delphi method to
construct a sustainable system dynamics model for the Jianfushan
Fancyworld in Taiwan. By modeling, simulating and analyzing the
dynamic scenarios in the tourist product market, how corporate
economic development impacts on the environment can be understood.
Beneficial devel and ies may then be
proposed to the operator of the themed park to help them arrive at the
right development decisions. Keywords: Theme park, sustainable
management, system dynamics.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 61
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting
4016 Hermitage Dr
Voorhees NJ 08043 USA
Kristina Wile
kwile@ stcollab.com
Systems Thinking Collaborative
91 Whitman Street
Stow MA 01775 USA
Justin Trogdon
jtrogdon@ rti.org
RTI International
Diane Orenstein
ssw8@ cdc.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
Heart Disease & Stroke Prevention
4770 Buford Highway NE
Atlanta GA 30341 USA
Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ cde.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
360 Brooks Avenue NE
Atlanta GA 30307 USA
Philip Huang
philip.huang@ ci.austin.tx.us
Austin/Travis County
Health and Human Services Department
Austin TX USA
Karina Loyo
karina loyo@ ci.austin.tx.us
Austin/Travis County
Health and Human Services Department
Austin TX USA
Jody House
jhouse@ lupinellc.net
Lupine, LLC
546 SE Walnut St
Hillsboro OR 97123
USA
Laura J. Black
Ijblack@ alum.mitedu
Montana State University
PO Box 3662
Bozeman MT 59772-3662
USA
How best to reduce cardiovascular risk?
Dynamic modeling to integrate public health and
medical science
A system dynamics model has been under development since 2007,
supported by the federal CDC and NIH, for evaluating alternative
interventions to reduce cardiovascular risk in a population. The Phase 1
model, presented at last year’s conference, focused on first-time
cardiovascular events, risk factors, and costs, and was applied nationally
and to Austin/Travis County, Texas. The expanded Phase 2 model
includes the post-cardiovascular event population, post-event care, and
recurrent events. The expanded model also depicts treatable borderline
tisk conditions (pre-hypertension, borderline cholesterol, and pre-
diabetes) and former smokers. We will apply the expanded model again
in Austin, and also for the heavily disadvantaged Delta region of
Mississippi. The local applications support community planning about
the likely impacts of interventions and their tradeoffs. We will also apply
the model to explore (a) targeting interventions by age category or by
gender; (b) lowering treatment targets for blood pressure, cholesterol, or
blood glucose; (c) other risk factors (e.g., excess salt consumption,
vitamin D deficiency, periodontal disease, and C-reactive protein); and
(d) the effects of race and ethnicity. The results will provide evidence-
based support for improved strategies combining public health and
clinical interventions to reduce cardiovascular risk and its direct and
indirect costs.
Patricia L. Mabry Lawton Cooper
mabryp@ od.nih.gov cooperls@ nhlbi.nih.gov
National Institutes of Health National Institutes of Health
Behavioral & Social Sciences Research Bethesda MD USA
31 Center Dr Rm B1C19
Bethesda MD 20892-2027 USA
The Hero and the Warrior in New Venture
Growth
Many entrepreneurial successes are attributed to the strong personalities
of the new venture leaders, who offer vision, inspire loyalty, and display
tenacity in solving problems to achieve their goals. Successful start-up
ventures may bias perceptions of the anecdotal benefits of personality-
driven leadership in firms too young to have established processes,
operationally and organizationally. Those ventures destroyed by the
personalities of early leaders, because they no longer exist, offer few
anecdotes with which to compare and counter legendary successes such
as Apple and its visionary leader Steve Jobs or Amazon and its creative
founder Jeff Bezos. This paper advances our thinking about the risks and
rewards of personality-driven leadership in start-ups by exploring the
dynamics that can arise from heroic leadership gone awry. Building ona
62 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
case study of a key manager in a medical-device start-up, we identify
causal relations and essential dynamics that may bring success to the
leader but at the expense of the new venture’ s viability. We discuss
insights from the causal loops as they relate to the literature on
leadership and outline next steps to advance the research.
Peter S. Hovmand Real Options A pproach for Innovation
phovmand@ wustl.edu " é
Washington University in St Louis Implementation Strategies
George Warren Brown School of Social Work
One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196 Many interventions that are effective in one setting may be ineffective or
Saint Louis MO 63130 USA even harmful in other settings. This poses a problem for organizations
and communities engaged in planning efforts seeking to improve
David N. Ford outcomes. This paper introduces the use of managerial real options
davidford@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University combined with system dynamics models to design strategies for
Dept Civil Engineering Mailstop 3136 implementing community interventions when their effectiveness may be
College Station TX 77843-3136 uncertain. A new notation for i y i
USA using real options is introduced. The approach is illustrated with an
example of domestic violence community interventions. Results show
that there are potential benefits to using a real options approach.
Peter S. Hovmand Modeling the Dynamics of the Energy,
hovmand@ wustl.ed *
Wanonteg Tiic fy in'StLoul Environment, & Poverty Nexus: A Study of
George Warren Brown School of Social Work Biogas Unit Diffusion in Andhra Pradesh, India
One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
Sat Louis M0.63130 In this paper, we use system dynamics modeling to look at the broad set
of socio-economic and ecological factors which together play a role in
John Peipert determining a households decision to adopt a biogas plant. Informed by
Jpeipert@ gwhmail.wustl.edu data we collected during the summer of 2008 with the Foundation for
George Warren Brown School of Social Work Ecological Security (FES) in Andhra Pradesh, India, and with
One Brookings Drive corroboration from the relevant technology diffusion and energy
Ses MO 63130 transition literature, we model the process of biogas adoption and
traditional technology replacement. We find that only by improving
Tim Severyn biogas interventions to address this complex interplay of energy,
tseveryn@ gwbmail.wustl.edu environment, and poverty-related factors, notably household usage of a
Washington University in St. Louis multiple-stove strategy and the incapacitation of the poorest households,
George Warren Brown School of Social Work can an intervention realize desired outcomes around both human and
Gautam N. Yadma ecological wellbeing. We conclude with a discussion of model
yadama@ wustl.edu applications for both FES and the broader rural development community.
Washington University in St. Louis
George Warren Brown School of Social Work
Susan Howick Supporting Strategic C onversations: The
siete at Significance of the Model Building Process
Department of Management Science
40 George Street This paper reports on the use of both qualitative modelling (i.e. Journey
Glasgow G1 1QE UK Making) and quantitative system dynamics simulation modelling for a
strategy making process in a UK police force. The main focus of the
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 63
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Colin Eden
colin@ gsb.strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Graduate School of Business
199 Cathedral Street
Glasgow G4 0QU UK
Joe Chiaojen Hsueh
joehsueh@ mitedu
MIT
70 Pacific St #357B
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
David S. Miller
dsm@ alum.mitedu
MIT
101 Stedman Street
Brookline MA 02446
USA
John Sterman
jsterman@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142
USA
Jinjing Huang
colorfulginger@ hotmail.com
NUI, Galway
155 Laurel Park
Newcastle Road
Galway Ireland
Enda Howley
enda.howley@ nuigalway.ie
NUI, Galway
University Road
Galway Ireland
Jim Duggan
jim.duggan@ nuigalway ie
National University of Ireland Galway
Department of Information Technology
University Road
Galway Ireland
work is on the tension between the supply of resources (i.e. police
officers) and the demands placed on those officers. The strategic
conversation that took place was facilitated by 2 modellers - one
focussing on managing the strategic enquiry, while the other considered
the implications of the conversation for the system dynamics model.
Three key strategic ci ions cd: the of quality
with respect to staff, measuring productivity, and the role of public
expectations. The work raises issues for both model building processes
and the strategic of any public i
Clean Technology Startup Management Flight
Simulator
How to run a successful clean technology startup company? What are the
strategies that enable a startup to escape the "valley of death" and emerge
as a winner in the market? To gain some insights in this, we developed a
Clean Technology Startup Management Flight Simulator, a system
dynamics based computer simulation game to study the dynamics of
clean tech startups. The model builds on the previous work by Miller
(2007) and Oliva, Sterman and Giese (2003). It includes the prospect
chain, product development, sales, marketing, human resource, finance
and accounting. The player makes decisions on headcount (growth rate
and allocation), compensation (salary, stock grants and options) and
financing (VC financing and IPO). We aim to use it as a teaching tool for
learning various trade-offs clean tech startups face in a cash constraint
environment.
The Ford Method: A Sensitivity Analysis
Approach
In dynamic models, a system's behavior is determined by the interaction
of its feedback loops. The challenge for system dynamics modellers is to
identify these loops, and also understand, over the runtime of a model,
which loops dominate system behavior. The Ford method is a procedure
that identifies changes in atomic behavior pattems in the presence, and
absence, of feedback loops, in order to identify loop dominance for a
specific time interval. For a candidate feedback loop, dominance is
calculated based on setting the loop control variable to a constant value.
Our approach proposes a variation on this method. Using sensitivity
analysis, we explore a wider search space around a range of possible
values for the control variable, and thereby the value of the loop gain.
The outcome of this analysis is a richer set of loop dominance analysis
for each atomic behavior pattern in the model. The sensitivity of various
feedback loops is measured as an indicator of dominance. This approach
has the potential to be selected for modellers and policy makers to
analyze the structure-drive-behavior dynamic systems. The approach is
illustrated through an analysis of the Y east Model.
64 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Sungjoo Hwang
nkkt4@ snu.ac.kr
Seoul National University
RM#39-425 san 56-1 Shilim-dong
Kwanak-Gu Seoul Korea
Moonseo Park
mspark@ snu.ac.kr
Seoul National University
Department of Architecture
San 56-1 Shinrim-dong
Seoul Korea
Hyun-Soo Lee
hyunslee@ snu.ac.kr
Seoul National University
San 56-1 Shinrim-dong
Seoul Korea
Vishnu Vardhan Jagannathan
vishnuvardhanj@ gmail.com
Anna University Chennai
Division of Transportation Engineering
Chennai 600 025
Tamil Nadu India
Ganesan Umadevi
gudevil @ yahoo.co.in
Anna University
College of Engineering Guindy
Dept of Civil Engineering
Chennai 600 025 India
Korean Real Estate Market Mechanisms and
Deregulation of Mortgage Loans: Qualitative
Analysis
The Korean real estate market is currently experiencing a slowdown due
to the global economic crisis which has resulted from subprime
mortgage lending practices. In response, the Korean government has
enforced various policies, based on intention to deregulate real estate
speculation, such as increasing the Loan to value ratio (LTV) in order to
stimulate housing supply, demand and accompanying housing
transactions. However, these policies have appeared to result in deep
confusion in the Korean housing market. Furthermore, analyses for
housing market forecasting— particularly those which examine the
impact of the international financial crisis on the Korean real estate
market— have been partial and fi y. Therefore, a i
and systematical approach is required to analyze the real estate financial
market and the causal nexus between market determining factors. Thus,
with an integrated perspective and applying a system dynamics
methodology, this paper proposes Korean Real Estate and Mortgage
Market dynamics models based on the fundamental principles of housing
markets, which are determined by supply and demand. As well, the
potential effects of the Korean government's deregulation policies are
considered by focusing on the main factor of these policies: the mortgage
loan.
Fringe Area Growth in Chennai - A systems
approach
Growth is the catalyst for all the issues related to landuse and
transportation planning. It is very much necessary to regulate this growth
to achieve a sustainable planning of the cities. The cities have become
almost saturated in the inner core and their growth is more in the
peripheral areas i.e. urban fringes or periurban areas. The population
growth rate of periurban areas of Chennai is 3 to 3.5 compared to the city
growth rate of 1.23. In this paper an attempt has been made to establish
the need for development planning of periurban areas by simulating the
growth of periurban area through system dynamic modelling under
various scenarios.An ideal growth scenario is simulated. The study area
selected is one of the most rapidly developing periurban areas in
Chennai. Also a system dynamic model is built for the whole of Chennai
metropolitan area to project its growth and estimate the present and
future supply demand ratio of transportation facilities.This will enable
planners to perceive the future conditions and plan accordingly for a
better, efficient and greener city of tomorrow.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 65
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Tobias J ager
tobias jaeger@ eifer.org
European Institute for Energy Research
Emmy-Noetherstrasse 11
D-76131 Karlsruhe
Germany
Susanne Schmidt
susanne.schmidt@ eifer.org
European Institute for Energy Research
Emmy-Noether-Strasse 11
D-76131 Karlsruhe
Germany
Ute Karl
ute.karl@ eifer.org
European Institute for Energy Research
Emmy-Noether-Strasse 11
76131 Karlsruhe
Germany
Sae-Hyun Ji
oldclock@ snu.ac.kr
Seoul National University
Bldg 39-425 Shillim-Dong San 56-1
Seoul Koreal
Moonseo Park
mspark@ snu.ac.kr
Seoul National University
Department of Architecture
San 56-1 Shinrim-dong
Seoul Korea
Hyun-Soo Lee
hyunslee@ snu.ac.kr
Seoul National University
San 56-1 Shinrim-dong
Seoul Korea
Nitin R. J oglekar
joglekar@ bu.edu
Boston University
School of Management
595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston MA 02215 USA
Eric S. Graber-Lopez
grabere@ alum.mit.edu
HeliaSolar
1085 Commonwealth Ave
Boston MA 02215
USA
A system dynamics model for the German
electricity market - model development and
application
Aim of this paper is the description of a system dynamics based model
for the German electricity market and its application. With the model
“Zertsim”, developed by EIFER, impact studies of economic and
environment related constraints on the German elec-tricity spot market
should be made. A first application of the model was in a workshop with
entrepreneurs of the region of Karlsruhe in Germany. One result of the
workshop was an order of impact factors for the development of
electricity prices and CO2 emis-sions. The most determining factors for
high electricity prices are: 1) environmental constraints, 2) fuel prices, 3)
electricity demand, and 4) extended operation time for nuclear power
stations in Germany. Regarding CO2 emissions the highest impacts
could be find in the case of: 1) environmental constraints, 2) extended
operation time for nuclear power, 3) electricity demand and finally 4)
fuel prices.
Policies for Improving Design-Build Delivery
System in Korea
Increasingly adopted by both public and private organizations, Design-
build (DB) has become a favored construction project delivery system,
outperforming other systems in terms of cost, schedule, and quality.
However, DB has been especially criticized by the public sector for
practicing subjective evaluation and for providing only limited
accessibility to small and medi ized ce . In Korea, similar
critiques have been raised, as these qualities have prevented public
owners from benefiting from the potential advantages of DB. In order to
address these challenging issues, the present research will systematically
be analyzed the characteristics of the DB delivery system in Korea.
Based on industry surveys and an extensive literature review, a
qualitative system dynamics model will be developed and used to
propose and test hypothetical DB policy alternatives that are expected to
enhance DB performance. Furthermore, after the appropriate
customization processes, these research findings can also be applied to
the industry settings of different countries.
A Countdown towards Solar Power at Grid
Parity: Evolution of Price-Performance
The price-performance of solar power generation seems to be on the
verge of reaching grid parity. With this paper we examine first the effect
that government sponsored renewable portfolio standard initiatives will
have on the true cost of solar electricity for consumers and second the
degree to which the problem of meeting the consumer demand may
become more significant once solar electricity reaches parity with
conventional sources of electricity generation. The true costs associated
with grid parity include the investment in generation capacity, backup
66 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Klaus J ohn
kd@ john-weltner.de
Chemnitz University of Technology
Thueringer Weg 7
09107 Chemnitz
Germany
Charles A. J ones
skuk_jones@ yahoo.com
Harvard Kennedy School
63 Eastland Road
Jamaica Plain MA 02130
USA
Martin Kaggwa
mkaggwa@ aide.co.za
Automotive Industry Development Centre
Private Bag X36
0200 Rosslyn
South Africa
Jasper L. Steyn
jsteyn@ postino.up.ac.za
University of Pretoria
Dept Engineering and Technology Mgt
Pretoria 0002
South Africa
Anastasios Pouris
anastassios.pouris@ up.ac.za
University of Pretoria
infrastructure, along with the production and the distribution costs. The
generation and production costs are on track to drop over time, on the
other hand the distribution and allied infrastructure costs can increase
owing to daily production variation, grid congestion and long distance
transmission loads as the demand for solar power grows. This context
offers a dynamic setting for examining a set of policies that will affect
the diffusion of solar power technologies.
A System Dynamics Approach to the Bhaduri-
Marglin Model
This paper starts from the observation that the global financial and
economic crisis cannot be explained by mainstream neoclassical models.
There is a need to promote the development of macroeconomic models
that put emphasis on the demand side. A promising starting point for
such a development is the Bhaduri-Marglin model. A drawback of this
model is the lack of dynamics. As the first part of a more comprehensive
research program this paper proposes a system dynamics approach to the
Bhaduri-Marglin model which yields additional insights into this model.
The Renewable Energy Industry in
Massachusetts as a Complex System
An abstract model of a local photovoltaic market was developed from a
model-based field study. The system described by informants displays
features of distributed and embedded agency: actors have the ability to
take meaningful action, but that action and its effects are limited by the
complexity of the system and by the actions of other actors. The
structures necessary for dynamic growth are present, as expected in an
industry that has had the growth of the PV market so far. Under several
reasonable conditions, growth can be halted before reaching its potential:
if reinforcing feedback processes saturate; if industry capacity grows too
slowly; or if goals are too low orif they erode. Coordinated action -
multiple small interventions - are more effective than isolated large
actions as a policy for market growth.
Sustaining industrial growth in A frica: A
reflection on South A frica's automotive industry
support model
The use of selective industrial policy to re-integrate South A frica's
previously protected automotive industry into the global business is one
of the few successful cases on the A frican continent in recent times.
South A frica's success provides a useful reference point for other African
countries in which selective industrial policy is a key part of national
development strategy. Despite the re-integration, the automotive industry
has experienced deteriorating trade deficit since 1995 contrary to what
had been envisaged. The paper uses a system dynamics model to explain
this apparent contradiction. It is found that the offer fiscal incentives to
the industry had a positive effect on industry investment and exports but
not long-term competitiveness. The paper argues that for a replica of
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 67
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Reza Kazemi
rezakazemi.reza@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Masoud Tavazoei
masood_tavazoei@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Mohammadreza A liasgari
mraliaskari@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Reza Kazemi
rezakazemi.reza@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Masoud Tavazoei
masood_tavazoei@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Nikrooz Nasr
me@ nikrooz.net
Sharif University of Technology
Tehran Iran
Ali Naghi Mashayekhi
mashayekhi@ alum.mit.edu
Sharif University of Technology
Grad School of Management and Econ.
PO Box 11365-8639 Azadi Avenue
11365 Tehran Iran
Reza Kazemi
rezakazemi.reza@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Masoud Tavazoei
masood_tavazoei@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
South A frica's selective industry support model to sustain industrial
growth and subsequent international trade, it has to be implemented in
conjunction with a targeted technology acquisition strategy.
The Effect of Chaotic and Instable Portfolio on
House Price in Tehran as a Case Study
Investigation into house price changes during time has been the focal
point of numerous researches and lots of great scholars such as
Wheaton[1,2] have put in a great deal of effort to explain and model its
behavior. In researches carried out so far, there were two main
approaches: first, most of the vacillation in house price was assigned to
delay in supply and demand market while in the second approach house
was considered as a durable good and the characteristics of those goods
were utilized to justify the house price behavior. In this paper we are
trying to dynamically model and investigate the effect of a chaotic
portfolio (meaning capital flow between three key markets: House, Stock
and Bank) on house price change trend, focusing on house price in city
of Tehran as a case study. Eventually some policies are suggested to
manage the aforesaid chaos.
An Investigation on The Process of Modification
of Subsidy Policy
In recent years, increase in energy price in intemational markets has
tumed paying energy subsidy into a serious challenge, because those
countries paying subsidies are in constant pressure (Gupta 2003)[6,7].
Rise in energy price and demand in those countries has resulted in
eamest problems in energy pricing (Davis 2001)[4]. Besides, subsidy
elimination and imparting the resulted money to the society, without
planning for solving its short-term and long-term consequent problems,
will lead to public dissatisfaction as well as industrial performance
downturn and also it will cause inflation[5]. In this paper while offering
a comprehensive model for this problem and dynamic analysis of the
policies implemented so far and also investigation of those policies in
short-term and long-term frames, another policy is suggested for solving
this problem which not only guarantees industrial development and
increase in public welfare level but also will gradually remove energy
subsidy from government budget and thus will help the government to
get rid of this intolerable burden.
Privatization: Iran Power Industry As A Case
Study
As it can be observed in developing countries trend, in these countries
there is a huge government possessing enormous money and also cash
flows in these countries are mainly within governmental organizations
rather than non-governmental (private) sector. Plainly, this trend will not
be favorable for those countries and will lead to economical downtum
after a while, because given the weakness of private sector; the
competition for market share will begin to wane, leading to good quality
68 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Mohammad Jalalian
majjal65@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Mohammad Rasooli
mdrasouli@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Ali Hasanpoor
desperali@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Andjelka Kelic
sly@ mitedu
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185 USA.
Aldo Zagonel
aazagon@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137
USA
Michael S. Kennedy
mike.kennedy@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
Department of Accounting and Finance
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA UK
decline. Consequently investors will lose their motivation for investment
and production drop and unemployment rise will be the inevitable
consequences. As a result, putting in an effort to foster the process of
privatization is one of the most important goals in these countries.
Privatization should take place in many fields including electrical power
supply. In this paper we will investigate the privatization trend in
electrical power supply industry in Iran as a case study and we will also
analyze the effect of influential parameters on this trend. At the
end,some policies are suggested to accelerate the process and their
results are probed.
Science, Technology, Engineering, and
Mathematics (STEM) Career Attractiveness
A system dynamics model was developed in response to the apparent
decline in STEM candidates in the United States and a pending shortage.
The model explores the attractiveness of STEM and STEM careers
focusing on employers and the workforce. Policies such as boosting
STEM literacy, lifting the H-1B visa cap, limiting the offshoring of jobs,
maintaining training and a combination of strategies are explored as
possible solutions. The system is complex, with many feedbacks and
long time delays, so solutions that focus on a single point of the system
are not effective and cannot solve the problem. A deeper understanding
of parts of the system that have not been explored to date is necessary to
find a workable solution.
A Review of System Dynamics Models of
Educational Policy Issues
A number of papers have been published describing various System
Dynamics (SD) models of various Education institutions and issues, on
topics including the role of SD in Corporate Governance, Planning,
Resourcing & Budgeting, Teaching Quality, Teaching Practice,
Microworlds and Enrolment Demand. This paper builds on previous
papers by this author that provided a partial catalogue and classification
of this work in order to highlight potential areas of research in this field
of study and to identify system archetypes at different hierarchical levels
and discover new ones. This paper therefore presents Review of System
Dynamics Models in Education. This paper builds on the earlier
taxonomy by widening the scope of the survey of completed SD
investigations in educatio The findings from these
investigations are briefly described. The Review classifies the completed
investigations into seven specific areas of concern and five hierarchical
levels. Key words: System Dynamics, Education.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 69
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Michael S. Kennedy
mike kennedy@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
Department of Accounting and Finance
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA UK
Deogratias Kibira
deogratias.kibira@ nist.gov
National Institute of Standards & Tech
100 Bureau Drive MS 8261
Gaithersburg MD 20899
USA
Sanjay Jain
jain@ gwu.edu
The George Washington University
2201 G Street NW Suite 415
Washington DC 20052
USA
Charles McLean
charles.mclean@ nist.gov
National Institute of Standards & Tech
100 Bureau Dr MS8260
Gaithersburg MD 20899
USA
Saul Kidde
saulkidde@ yahoo.com
Makerere University
Faculty of Computing and IT
PO Box 7062
Kampala Uganda
Ddembe W. Williams
Makerere University
Faculty of Computing & Information Tech
PO Box 7062
Kampala Uganda
A Review of System Dynamics Pedagogic
Techniques
A number of papers have been published describing various pedagogic
techniques for the dissemination of the System Dynamics (SD) approach
at various Education institutions and academic levels ranging from
schools (K-12 in the US) to higher education. This paper builds on
previous papers by this author that provided a partial catalogue and
classification of this work in order to highlight potential areas of research
in this field of study and to identify system archetypes at different
hierarchical levels and discover new ones. This paper therefore presents
Review of System Dynamics Pedagogic Techniques. This paper builds
on the earlier taxonomy by widening the scope of the survey of SD
Pedagogic Techniques. The findings from these investigations are briefly
described. The Review classifies the completed investigations into
specific areas of concem and hierarchical levels. Key words: System
Dynamics, Education.
A System Dynamics Framework for Sustainable
Manufacturing
This Paper P proposes a framework for application of system dynamics
manufacturing. manufacturing
involves interpetion of multiple complex systems including those in
manufacturing, environment, financial and social domains. A concerted
effort involving a number of researchers may be required to develop the
requisite capability to model sustainable manufacturing with a flexible
scope. At present, it is difficult for researchers to collaborate, share and
reuse models and due to lack of in several
aspects includi and model: hes. The proposed
framework is a first step to move towards composability of sustainable
manufacturing model components developed by different research
teams. The proposed framework organizes the major factors influencing
sustainable manufacturing into four interacting complex domains. The
framework is intended for use as a platform to develop model
components that may be interchanged to analyze sustainable
manufacturing for different industries and geographies.
Mapping Standard HIV Disease Surrogate
Markers to Alternatives ones: A System
Dynamics Approach
Use of system dynamics methodology in modeling HIV/AIDS disease
progression is not very new, however use of a triangulation of
methodologies in form of the Dynamic Synthesis Methodology (DSM)
to model the relationship between surrogate markers for monitoring
HIV/AIDS disease progression is entirely new. This paper seeks to
demonstrate the practicality of the use of a triangulation of
70 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
William R. Killingsworth
billk@ mit.edu
MIT
77 Massachusetts Ave Room 1-176
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
Frank Lawrence
U.S. Amy Aviation and Missile Command
Redstone Arsenal
Huntsville Alabama 35801
USA
Regina K. Chavez
rkb0003@ uah.edu
University of Alabama Huntsville
Ctr for Management & Economic Research
301 Sparkman Drive
Huntsville AL 35899
USA
Nelson T. Martin
University of Alabama Huntsville
Ctr for Management & Economic Research
301 Sparkman Drive
Huntsville AL 35899
USA
Gyu Rim Kim
gyurim1245@ hanmail.net
Hankuk Academy of Foreign Studies
A-1608 Acro-Tower 1591 Gwanyang-dong
Dongan-gu Anyang-si Gyeonggi-do
431-060 Korea
called DSM combining System Dynamics and Case study
methodologies to establish the relationships between HIV/AIDS
surrogate markers so as to arrive at an appropriate model for monitoring
the HIV/AIDS disease progression for a resource limited setting. The
author presents and understanding of DSM and then describes the
iterative model development process including model validation.
Analysis is made of the model to identify the dominant loops so as to
suggest important factors to consider in design of a possible tool. The
paper makes useful contribution in suggesting how DSM can be used in
a clinical setting to enhance technology use in decision making for
healthcare in a resource limited settings.
Using System Dynamics to Evaluate A Push-Pull
Inventory Optimization Strategy For Multi-Tier,
Multi-Channel Supply Chains
Multi-tier, multi-channel supply chains are now common in many
industries including aviation. Such supply chains provide high-value
aviation parts to the Government, and many of these supply chains have
been plagued recently by shortages. These shortages arise from demand
volatility as well as supply uncertainties. In many commercial supply
chains, a push-pull strategy is used to develop responsiveness to
uncertainties in demand and supply. An optimization model is developed
for an aviation supply chain to strategically place WIP inventory at
specific suppliers, thus creating a push-pull boundary in the
manufacturing supply chain. The optimum solutions are shown to
substantially improve supply chain response and supply availability with
reduced working capital. A system dynamics model is used to evaluate
the performance of the supply chain over time when the optimal safety
stocks were in place. The results indicate a significant improvement in
the recoverability of the supply chain when subjected to a sudden
increase in demand.
Analysis of Global Food Market and Food-
Energy Price Links: Based on System Dynamics
Approach
The world food and energy prices are becoming increasingly linked.
Food vs. fuel is the dilemma regarding the risk of diverting farmland or
crops for biofuels production in detriment of the food supply on a global
scale. One systemic cause for the price rise is held to be the diversion of
food crops (maize in particular) for making first-generation biofuels. An
estimated 100 million tonnes of grain per year are being redirected from
food to fuel. The objectives of this study are firstly to build a simulation
model, based on system dynamics approach, for not only analyzing the
global food market but also forecasting the global food demand,
production, and stock, and secondly to examine the food-energy links
mechanism by analyzing biofuel related technology level and progress,
expected biofuel demand and price, biofuel production capacity and
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 71
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Golda Word Komanapalli
komanaga@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
24 Beehive Court
Beehive Lane
London IG1 3RR UK
Birgit Kopainsky
birgit kopainsky@ flury-giuliani.ch
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
PO Box 7800
N-5020 Bergen
Norway
Stephen A lessi
steve-alessi@ uiowa.edu
University of lowa
370 Lindquist Center
Towa City IA 52242
USA
Matteo Pedercini
matteois@ hotmail.com
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Blvd Ste 650
Arlington VA 22201
USA
facilities, and petroleum market mechanism. a causal link from the oil
price to the biofuel demand is positive, meaning that an increase in the
oil price results in an increase in the biofuel demand. There are several
more positive links: a link from the biofuel demand to the biofuel price,
a link from the biofuel price to the oil demand, and a link from the oil
demand to the oil price.
Verifying Influence Diagrams using Dimensional
Analysis
Developing a valid model is of primary importance in System Dynamics
(SD) modelling process. To establish that a model produces the right
behaviour for the right reasons it is essential to ensure that the structure
of model represents the corresponding real world system. Amongst the
verification procedures employed, dimensional analysis is used to verify
the syntactical correctness of the equation. However, dimensional
analysis is among the least prioritised procedures employed in the model
building process. Therefore, a lack of dimensional consistency raises
serious doubts about the validity of model behaviour. The aim of this
paper is to summarise various problems and difficulties identified in the
process of sD modelling and to suggest an altemative approach. Firstly,
this paper d the problems faced by begi Secondly, the
paper d alternative approaches suggested by hers in SD.
Thirdly this papers presents a novel approach to generate a mathematical
model from influence diagrams. The two principle benefits this approach
can offer are, a software tool based on this approach which can make the
benefits of itati delling of SD method more ible to
a wider range of users and an improved SD modelling experience,
especially of those modellers who have limited mathematical experience.
Exploratory strategies for simulation-based
learning about national development
This study investigated an instructional strategy to improve leaming a
complex model in a sys-tem dynamics based learning environment. The
instructional strategy required subjects to ex-plore key variables by
manipulating dynamic graphs. Design of the strategy was posited upon
principles of reducing cognitive load, facilitating mental models,
enhancing transfer, and manag-ing risk. Eight students who received the
exploration strategy subsequently made better policy decisions than nine
subjects who did not receive the strategy. Furthermore, the former
subjects exhibited better understanding of the model and how to manage
it than did the latter subjects, based upon their verbal descriptions.
Pal I. Davidsen
pal.davidsen@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6 7th Floor
5020 Bergen Norway
72 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Samuli Kortelainen
Modeling Strategic Technology Management
samuli.kortelainen@ lut.fi i ‘
Lappeenranta University of Technology With a Hybrid Model
Skinnarilankatu 34
53850 Lappeenranta Abstract: In this study we will introduce a hybrid model to describe
Finland competition ina loping market envi . A hybrid
L auri Lattila model referred here is a model that has both system dynamic and agent-
University of Technol based elements. Modeling effort begins from a literature review to
Sy . *
strategic and of technology. From this
background we build a model combining the theories from multiple
theory tracks. The model is used to test the effects of more rapid strategy
process to firm’s profitability. To test the results we use statistical
methods to analyze the data gathered from sensitivity runs. Our model
founds support for the proposition that increasing agility increases also
the competitive advantage of the firm. We also conclude that hybrid
modeling i is a strong research tool, but it comes with drawbacks of high
and cl ing more complex modeling tools.
Saroj Koul Human Resource Planning in a Shore-based
nee Integrated Steel Plant: A SD Model
Fred C Manning School of Business Adm
307 Rhodes Hall
Wolfville NS B4P 2R6
Canada
K. R. Divakar Roy
divakarroy@ rediff.com
Andhra University
Dept of Mechanical Engineering
Visakhapatnam 530003 AP
India
Martin H. Kunc
Martin.Kunc@ whs.ac.uk
Warwick Business School
ORMS Group
Office E 0 10 Social Studies Bldg
CV47AL Coventry
UK
Lorenzo Andrade
landrade@ ulagos.cl
Universidad de Los Lagos
This paper elaborates a model of Human Resource supply and demand as
it affects the productivity of a shore-based integrated steel plant using the
System Dynamics method. The HR scenario at the plant is examined
over a period of ten years, during which it successfully operated with
one-third of the personnel in comparable steel plants in India. Also
examined is the optimal level of human resources necessary to ensure
enhanced efficiency and productivity levels, containing personnel, and
redeploying surplus personnel through retraining and relocation. The key
parameters taken up are non-executive/executive ratio, personnel
productivity, and total workers. More precisely, it identifies policies
related to (i) downsizing personnel (ii) to decreasing non-
executive/executive ratio, and (iii) improving labour productivity and
effectiveness.
Fishing Industry Dynamics: Is fish farming
sustainable? An Exploratory Study of the
Salmon Industry
In recent years, there has been an increase in the interest for fishery
dynamics in the System Dynamics field but most of the work has been
related to the management of wild fish stocks. In this paper, we present
an exploratory study of the effect of fish farming on the stock of wild
fish stocks based on the case of the Salmon industry. Fish farming does
not reduce the impact of fishing activities but it increases their effects
since it is necessary almost 6 kilograms of wild fish for each kilogram of
salmon produced.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 73
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Ana Lauge
alauge@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal no13
20018 San Sebastian
Spain
Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegi@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia
Spain
José M. Torres
jmtorres@ tecnun.es
Tecnun University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian
Spain
Rene LeClaire
1il@ lanl.gov
Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663 MS-K575
Los Alamos NM 87545
USA
Gary B. Hirsch
gbhirsch@ comcast.net
Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road
Wayland MA 01778
USA
Alisa Bandlow
abandlo@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 Mail Stop 1138
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA
The Dynamics of Crisis Lifecycle for Emergency
Management
Cascading disruptions and failures product of natural, industrial and
man-made disasters can be avoided or minimized if the concept of Crisis
Lifecycle is included and und d into
Research studies by Tumer and also by Vaughan have shown that crisis
often have long incubation times. There are numerous precursors or
wamings that are ignored or not detected. As Coombs putit, "crisis does
not just happen, it evolves". According to Coombs, a crisis lifecycle has
three stages: precrisis, crisis event and postcrisis. With this lifecycle-
view in mind, could asynchronous
management of the incubation periods, the physical manifestations of the
emergency, the restoration periods and beyond. Hence, emergency
management needs a long term approach, resolution of different
perspectives and imp! of ication. We aim to
define the characteristics of each phase by analyzing real cases
developing reference modes.
Learning Environment Simulator: A Tool for
Local Decision Makers and First Responders
The National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC)
has developed a prototype leaming environment simulator (LES) based
on the Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System
(CIPDSS) infrastructure and scenario models. The LES is designed to
engage decision makers at the grass-roots level (local/city/state) to
deepen their understanding of evolving crises, enhance their intuition
and allow them to test their own strategies for events before they occur.
An initial version is being developed, centered on a pandemic influenza
outbreak and has been successfully tested with a group of hospital
administrators and first responders. LES is not a predictive tool but
rather a simulated environment allowing the user to experience the
complexities of a crisis before it happens. Users can contrast various
approaches to the crisis, competing with alternative strategies of their
own or other participants. LES is designed to assist decision makers in
making informed choices by functionally representing relevant scenarios
before they occur, including impacts to critical infrastructures with their
interdependencies and estimating human health & safety and economic
impacts. In this paper a brief overview of the underlying models are
given followed by a description of the LES, its interface, usage and
testing experience.
74 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Man-Hyung Lee
manlee@ cbu.ac.kr
Chungbuk National Univ Urban Eng. Dept
410 Seongbong-Ro Heungduck-Gu
Cheongju 305-763 Chungbuk
Korea
Tsuey-Ping Lee
tpinglee@ ccu.edu.tw
National Chung-Cheng University
Dept of Political Science
168 University Road Min-Hsiung Chia-Y
62102 Taiwan R.O.C.
Chin-Hsueh Wang
tping@ thu.edu.tw
National Chung-Cheng University
168 University Rd Min-Hsiung Chia-Y
Taiwan 62102 R.O.C.
Christian Lehr
clehr@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss $ 202-214
68165 Mannheim
Germany
Peter M. Milling
pmilling@ bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Schwarzwaldstr 103
D-68163 Mannheim
Germany
Dynamic Interrelationship between
Administrative Consolidation and Segregation:
Korean Example
This study aims at constructing dynamic models which would measure
the direct and indirect impacts originating from the proposed
administrative integration. Specifically, it compares two antithetical
points of view, that of the existing and consolidation scenarios. Applying
Cheongju and Cheongwon sample, it tries to set up causal and stock-
flow models reflecting the above two scenarios. The simulation work
focuses on dynamics changes of major urban indicators in the mother
city of Cheongju and its vicinities, i.e. Cheongwon, respectively. It also
analyzes whether the proposed consolidation scenario would exert
meaningful positive impacts in enhancing regional attractiveness.
The Change in Residents’ Participative Behavior
in Polluted Areas: A System Dynamics
Perspective
This article explores the reasons for the declining public participation of
residents in a severely polluted community from a system dynamics
perspective by examining a set of communities polluted with dioxin in
southem Taiwan. The study examines three aspects affecting
participative behavior intention: residents’ perception of the pollution,
peer impact, and how residents perceive the impact of participation on
government response. A face-to-face interview conducted from August
to September 2008 revealed that the unintended side effect of the
government's indemnity policy has created a balancing feedback loop
that offsets the reinforcing feedback system suggested by the normative
theory of participation. In addition, the unique nature of pollution
victims mitigates the influence of an existing reinforcing feedback
system. This article concludes with policy suggestions to increase public
participation in a highly polluted community.
From Waste to Value - A System Dynamics
Model for Strategic Decision Making in Closed-
Loop Supply Chains
The purpose of this paper is to develop a system dynamics model which
allows an Original Equipment Manufacturer in the electronics industry to
test different value recovery strategies in a Closed-Loop Supply Chain
setting. Due to shortening product lifecycles and legislative regulations,
companies face the challenge of handling products at their end-of-use or
end-of-life. Accordingly, effective strategies for the collection and value
recovery of these products have to be developed. The model presented in
this paper is the preliminary result of an ongoing research project. First
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 75
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Kampeng Lei
drali1964@ yahoo.com
University of Macau
Avenida Ouvidor Arriaga No 46-48
Edif Nga Lim 13 Ander D
Macao
Zhou Shaogi
fesqzhou@ scut.edu.cn
South China University of Technology
College of Env Sci and Engineering
Guangzhou 510640
China
Lianggang Lu
lulg@ 163.net
Macao Science and Technology Assoc.
Rua Do Volong #8
3 Andar A
Macao
Lam Chikin
rainbow.charles@ gmail.com
Macao Science and Technology Assoc.
Shek Kiu Chan
skchan@ umac.mo
University of Macau
Faculty of Science and Technology
Ave Padre Tomas
Pereira Taipa Macao
Keith Thomas Linard
keith@ linard.net
John-Paul II Institute
150 La Cote Road
Greendale Victoria 3341
Australia
simulation experiments conducted on the current model structure on the
one hand show the economic potential of an engagement in value
recovery activities and on the other hand highlight the high complexity
and connectivity inherited with various value recovery processes.
The Analysis and Simulation of the Materials
Inflow and Outflow of Macao
The metabolism of a city can be seen as the process of transforming all
the materials and dities for ining the citys ic activity.
The Macao Special A dministrative Region (SAR) is a highly developed
metropolitan region where prosperous tourism has made it possible to
support a population of 0.54 million people on an area about 29.2 km2.
This paper highlights the economic and environmental transformation of
Macao by emphasizing the following aspects: the population trends,
tourists changing trends, GDP, foreign investment trends, material
resource consumption and waste generation, so as to forecast the trend of
the Macao development and provide valuable reference to government
policy makers. The result shows with the development of Macao, its area
would increase, and population density would remain the same level,
while its GDP and foreign investment might increase to the year of
2017.The imported materials would fluctuate with the equivalent
population. The mineral and the potable water increased, while sewage
would be influenced by the uncertain precipitation. This research was
financially supported by the Science and Technology Development Fund
of Macau (No.022/2007/A 2), Macao SAR, China.
Application of System Dynamics to Unsealed
Road Maintenance Management
ABSTRACT: Most pavement maintenance management systems tend to
be either non-analytical databases or statistical correlation models.
However, pavement maintenance is part of a complex system comprising
the road pavement, the environment, diverse users, the maintenance
authority and Local/State/Federal Governments. This system has
significant feedbacks, making it a suitable field for system dynamics
enquiry. This paper discusses a system dynamics based pavement
management model that was prototyped originally by engineering
students at the Australian Defence Force Academy (Hyde 1996, Jackson
1997) and refined on contract with the Australian Government. The
current model was rebuilt in Powersim Studio and refined in
collaboration with a Victorian rural Shire Council. The model analyses
the pavement deterioration over time of 530 individual segments of
unsealed rural road, prioritising rehabilitation treatments based on user
76 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Chin-Y en Alice Liu
alice.liu@ ttu.edu
Texas Tech University
Rawls College of Business Admin
ISQS Area PO Box 42101 MS2101
Lubbock TX 79409
USA
James R. Burns
jburns@ ba.ttu.edu
Texas Tech University
Rawls College of Business Admin
15th and Flint
Lubbock TX 79409-2101
USA
Balaji Janamanchi
balaji.janamanchi@ gmail.com
Texas A&M International University
PH 304C College of Business (DIBTS)
5201 University Boulevard
Laredo TX 78041-1900
USA
Hongliang Liu
liuhonglianger@ gmail.com
NUI, Galway
University Road
alway
Ireland
Enda Howley
enda.howley@ nuigalway.ie
NUI, Galway
University Road
alway
Ireland
Jim Duggan
jim.duggan@ nuigalway ie
National University of Ireland Galway
preferences and budget constraints and identifies the consequences of
different budgetary approaches. Feedback to the decision makers
includes the number of households served by very rough roads, the
number of user complaints and roughness related accident costs and
vehicle operating costs. Keywords: Pavement maintenance management;
pavement life cycle costing; unsealed road maintenance; transport
economics; economic evaluation; system dynamics.
The National Energy Dilemma: Models for
Policy Evaluation
This study is about gaining a deeper and better understanding of the
effects and implications of the current situation in the U.S. ene
markets at a macro level. In order to test what macro-level theories might
best explain the national situation, the research takes a system dynamics
perspective to cope with the behavioral complexity of the problem.
Questions to be addressed include what makes the energy markets so
volatile? Can the U.S. Government help stabilize these markets by
developing and selling some of its energy assets? How can the U.S. Gov.
encourage more private investment in renewable forms of energy?
System dynamics models are presented to study the U.S. energy situation
with a view to gaining a better understanding and to providing useful
suggestions for policy.
Individual Versus Group Rationality: A
Coevolutionary Approach to the Beer Game
In this paper, we examine the evolution of strategies in the Beer
Distribution Game (BDG). This is a well known game which has many
parallels with supply chain optimisation problems. This paper explores
the strategies used by individuals participating i in this game. The i issue of
bounded d in detail th our
This paper presente anew and alternative approach to evolving strategies
for the BDG. This includes a co-evolutionary architecture which
provides a means of evolving strategies across the various sectors of the
BDG. Our results identify the best performing or fittest strategies for the
BDG when two alternative fitness approaches are used. We show the
significant implications for individual strategies in the BDG when agents
are d by greater levels of bounded rationality. Our conclusions
Dep of Information T: gh
University Road
Galway
Ireland
indicate the implications of individual and group rationality on the BDG.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 77
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Sheng Liu
Sheng.Liu@ crossmark.com
Analytics, CROSSMARK
5100 Legacy Drive
Plano TX 75024
Rogelio Oliva
roliva@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
Mays Business School
301F Wehner 4217 TAMU
College Station TX 77843-4217
USA
Helena Williams
Helena.Williams@ crossmark.com
Analytics, CROSSMARK
5100 Legacy Drive
Plano TX 75024
USA
Corey Lofdahl
corey lofdahl@ baesystems.com
BAE Systems
6 New England Executive Park
Burlington MA 01803
USA
Luis Lopez
luis.lopez@ incae.edu
INCAE Business School
PO Box 960-4050
Alajuela 4050
Costa Rica
Minimize Out of Stock Through Optimizing
Store Operations: An analysis of restocking
policies
Out of stock (OOS) has long been a plaguing problem for both
manufacturers and retailers. It not only leads to lost sales in the short
term, but also may lose customers in the long run. OOS could be caused
by many factors, such as manufacturer production shortage, distribution
center delay, consumer demand surge, and sub-optimal store operations,
etc. In this paper, we focus on OOS caused by sub-optimal store
operations, which is responsible for between two-thirds and three-fourths
of OOS occurrences. We use system dynamics model to study the
interactions of various factors in play at store level that may lead to
OOS. We hypothesize that shelf space allocation and restocking
practices are the two most critical store operation decisions. We propose
a modeling effort and a set of experiments to determine where (which
store) and when (what day) OOS is likely to happen. We expect our
findings could be used to minimize OOS through dynamically guiding
efficient inventory management, shelf space allocation, and store
personnel deployment. A full report of the results from the modeling
effort, our analysis, and the impact of the improved policies will be
available by the time of the International System Dynamics Conference.
Keywords: Out of stock, System dynamics, Store operations..
Implementing Irregular Warfare Policy Using
Modeling and Simulation
Senior decision makers have few tools available when implementing
policy in multidisciplinary domains like Counterinsurgency (COIN) and
Irregular Warfare (IW). Modeling and simulation (M&S) is offered as an
appropriate analysis methodology for its ability to 1) combine
contributions from multiple subject matter experts, 2) generate and
analyze complex policy consequences based on various initial
conditions, and 3) provide useful results in the presence of pervasive
missing data. This paper works through an example irregular warfare
simulation problem based on The Quest for Viable Peace (Covey,
Dziedzic, and Hawley, 2005) or "QV P" that combines political,
economic, security, and rule of law strategies. Though the QVP model
was originally formulated based on A merica's experience in Bosnia and
Kosovo in the 1990s, here it is redirected and extended based on current
IW concems in Afghanistan. Used in this way, M&S combines the best
aspects of well established and recently published work bolstered by
current experience and expertise.
Judicial Process Dynamics
Becker (1968) posits the notion that criminals respond, like any other
rational agent, to the benefits and costs of their activities. From this
notion follows the deterrence hypothesis, the idea that judicial policies
can help reduce crime through an increase in the expected costs of illegal
78 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Porfirio Guevara
Porfirio.Guevara@ incae.edu
Incae, Graduate School of Business
PO Box 960-4050
Alajuela
Costa Rica
Thomas Lowry
tslowry@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 0735
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA
Robert Taylor
taylor@ alum.mit.edu
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137
USA
Alexander Lubyansky
alubyansky@ gmail.com
University at Albany
8130 Heatherton Ln Apt 204
Vienna VA 22180
USA
activities. Y et, despite implementing the suggestions implied by such
models, more and more countries undergo a large escalation of criminal
activities. We explore this issue using a longitudinal data set of relevant
judicial figures for one country. The data are used to calibrate a System
Dynamics model. We find that, contrary to what would be ordinarily
expected, criminals tend to be punished not exclusively on the basis of
their behavior, but in terms of other institutional variables. Our data
show that judges and prosecutors are prone to dismiss cases when the
backlog to be processed exceeds a threshold, in a manner that much
corresponds to the archetype "Shifting the Burden To." The effect of
judges’ decision rules which results in potential criminals who are
acquitted without apparent reason is that of creating incentives for
criminals and others to engage in criminal activities, thus causing crime
rates, and the backlog of cases, to increase even further.
Visualizing Spatial and Temporal Dynamics in
Google Earth Using Powersim
Atits genesis, system dynamics (SD) modeling was developed to
examine the temporal behavior of interrelated systems. This ability has
made SD modeling and analysis the choice for decision and policy
makers to do scenario testing and risk analysis. In addition to the
conceptual advantages of SD modeling in this realm, are the many SD
modeling platforms that have been developed that greatly simplify model
creation and more importantly, provide an environment for visualizing
the output. However, when making decisions that involve urban
planning, electrical and/or water infrastructure, and the like, or for
examining impacts of resource development on the environment, the
spatial aspects of the decision becomes just as important as the temporal
dynamics. To properly support these decisions, simultaneous
visualization of the temporal and spatial dynamics is needed. This paper
presents a methodology for utilizing vbscript from within the SD
development platform Powersim to dynamically link Powersim
simulations with Google Earth to visualize, in real time, spatial data that
change over time. The presentation will describe the logic behind the
approach, its ilities and limitati and areas for imp) that
should be addressed.
Proposed Method for Stakeholder-C entric
Simulation of Social C ognition and Social
Influence
Itis hard to study problems where boundedly rational stakeholders
determine important decisions in the system. This is because the
dynamics of boundedly rational social cognition and social influence are
complex and because data about stakeholder mental models and social
networks are difficult to elicit, organize, and test. The proposed method
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 79
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
Luis F. Luna-Reyes
luisfluna@ udlap.mx
Universidad de las Americas Puebla
Casa 5D Zona D
Santa Catarina Martir
Cholula Puebla 72820
Mexico
Jorge A. Duran Encalada
jorgea.duran@ udlap.mx
Universidad de las Americas Puebla
College of Business Administration
AP No 100
Cholula Puebla 72820
Mexico
Erick R. Bandala
erick bandala@ udlap.mx
Universidad de las Américas Puebla
School of Engineering
Santa Catarina Martir
Cholula 72820
Mexico
Luis F. Luna-Reyes
luisfluna@ udlap.mx
Universidad de las Americas Puebla
Casa 5D Zona D
Santa Catarina Martir
Cholula Puebla 72820
Mexico
J. Ramon Gil-Garcia
joseramon.gil@ cide.edu
Centro de Invest. y Docencia Economica
Carretera México-Toluca No 3655
Col Lomas de Santa Fe CP
01210 México DF
Mexico
to study these kinds of problems combines data elicitation techniques
from stakel theories of f dedly rational social
cognition and social influence, and a system dynamics simulation model.
This method takes rough quali holder data, izes it into
stakeholder diagrams, and uses it to parametrically populate existing
system dynamics structure. This allows the researcher to quantitatively
simulate complex stakeholder-centric problems where data quality is
poor.
Exploring Alternatives for Sustainable
Development in Tamiahua Wetlands
This paper presents a preliminary System Dynamics model developed to
analyze sustainability of a natural reserve in Mexico: the Tamiahua
wetlands. Wetlands are often referred to as nature’s kidney because they
filter contaminants from water. In spite of their importance, wetlands are
endangered areas around the world. The preliminary model presented in
this paper suggests that fishing activity in the Tamiahua wetlands,
together with contaminants from human activity, have the potential to
damage the diversity of species in the ecosystem, endangering the
sustainability of the system. Continued work on the model is intended to
explore appropriate ways of preserving Tamiahua, providing inhabitants
with economic activities that promote the sustainability of the region.
Using Institutional Theory and Dynamic
Simulation to Understand C omplex E-
Government Phenomena
Governments around the world have developed e-govemment programs
hoping to obtain important benefits. However, many e-government
projects fail to deliver their promises. Some of such failures are the. result
of a lack of und ding about the relationshi among h
information use, l factors, instituti ar and
socio-economic contexts involved in the selection, implementation, and
use of information and communication technologies (ICT), producing
hes and es, The paper proposes the use of
institutional theory and dynamic simulation, particularly System
Dynamics, as an integrated and comprehensive approach to understand
e-govemment phenomena. The paper draws on the case of the e-Mexico
program, particularly in the strategy to create web-based content to the
citizen in the areas of education, health, economy and government.
Using the same technological infrastructure and under the leadership of
the same Federal Ministry, four different networks of government and
80 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, G-L
John Lyneis
jlyneis@ mit.edu
MIT
1010 Massachusetts A venue A pt 56
Cambridge MA 02138
USA
John Sterman
jsterman@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142
USA
Natalia N. Lytchkina
lychkina@ imis.ru
State University of Management
Riazansky pr d 99
Moscow 109542
Russia
non-government organizations engaged in the creation of Internet portals
to create relevant content in these areas. Differences in institutional
arrangements and organizational factors resulted on different technology
enactments.
Green, Simple, and Profitable: The Paradox of
Failed Best Practices in University Building
Maintenance
Many green practices are widely understood and known to bring benefits
beyond reduced energy use. Y et, organizations often fail to implement
them. What explains these failures? Past theory suggests that adoption
and implementation will be most likely to fail when practices are
difficult to recognize given current competencies or organizational
structures, require complex knowledge, or when the organization faces
short term pressures that force it to abandon implementation early. Here,
we present a case study of an organization that fails to adopt an
important best practice despite the fact that the benefits and steps toward
implementation are well understood and extemal short term pressures are
minimal. We find that instead, short term pressures are created entirely
internally by the structure of relations across organizational boundaries,
causing individuals to misperceive the best practice as a cost that can be
put off rather than an investment with positive future retums. Thus, even
the simplest of innovations and improvements can be stymied by
dynamics intemal to an organization.
Simulation modeling of regions’ social and
economic development in decision support
systems
In the report many and for
creating Decision Support Systems for regional and federal authorities
are presented. They are based on using new information technologies
such as Data Warehousing, On-Line Analytical Processing, simulation
modeling and others. The general structure of model complex for region
social ic devel and its realization based on methods of
system dynamics and modem technologies of simulati deling are
described.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 81
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Roderick H. MacDonald
rod@ isdps.org
Initiative for SD in the Public Sector
300 G Milne Hall
University at Albany
Albany NY 12222 USA
Abhijit Mandal
‘A.Mandal@ mdx.ac.uk
Middlesex University Business School
Business & Management
The Burroughs Hendon
London NW4 2AE
UK
Aida Hajro
Aida. Hajro@ brunel.ac.uk
Brunel Business School
Uxbridge Middlesex UB8 3PH
UK
Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
imartinez@ anl.gov
Argonne National Laboratory
9700 S Cass Ave Bldg 900 DIS
Argonne IL 60439
USA
A System Dynamics Perspective of the New Y ork
State's Aggravated DWI Law
This paper examines the implications of an Aggravated DWI law passed
in November 2006 in New Y ork State. To examine the system-wide
implications of the A ggravated DWI Law, a system dynamics computer
simulation model was developed to capture the flow of drunk drivers
through the criminal justice system in New Y ork State. This system
captures people from the time of arrest, through adjudication and
sanctions, and then tracks these people for 10 years to capture
recidivism. The goal of this project was to provide insight about the
implications of the A ggravated DWI law on other parts of the system.
For example, how would the law influence the police, DAs, courts, the
drinking driver program (DDP), probation, and ali
providers, and would drunk driving be reduced? The Aggravated DWI
law allows for a felony DWI charge for any individual arrested for drunk
driving with a BAC at or above 0.18%, regardless of previous alcohol
convictions. In addition, the sanctions for an Aggravated DWI
conviction are severe and require mandatory ignition interlock, license
revocation and screening for alcoholism.
Integration in cross-border mergers and
acquisitions
Despite the increasing frequency of cross-border mergers and
acquisitions, it is accepted that the rate of success in the post-merger
phase remains poor; the main reason for this is widely accepted to be the
unsuccessful cultural integration of the two firms involved. Driven by
limited time to obtain results, managers from the headquarters (of the
acquiring firm) seek to change the culture of the subsidiary (of the
acquired firm); the imperatives of a ‘strong culture’ lead them to
persevere with the same narrow strategies and objectives. Though
organizational culture has been widely studied in the M&A literature,
there has been insufficient attention to important dynamic aspects of the
process of integration. This paper, with the help of appropriate concepts
of culture dynamics from anthropologists, formulates a description of the
ion process. Sul ly, by u a matt ical model
of this process (which explores the impact of two exogenous variables
that characterize the context) we bring out the role of endogenous
dynamics in determining the success of typical narrow strategies.
Specifically, we explain how the nature and strength of the constituent
feedback loops shape the non-uniform evolution of relevant constructs in
the integration process. We conclude with implications for managers and
researchers.
Improving Performance in Detection Systems:
Exploring a Parallel-judgment Structure
In this paper, we describe a model of two judges acting in parallel. We
expand work related to the identification of threats by analyzing the
82 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
imartinez@ anl.gov
Argonne National Laboratory
9700 S Cass Ave Bldg 900 DIS
Argonne IL 60439
USA
Stephen H. Conrad
shconra@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis
PO Box 5800 MS 1138
Albuquerque NM 87185-1138
Aldo Zagonel
aazagon@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137
USA
Ali Naghi Mashayekhi
mashayekhi@ alum.mit.edu
Sharif University of Technology
Grad School of Management and Econ.
PO Box 11365-8639 Azadi Avenue
11365 Tehran
Tran
Soheil Ghili
soheil_ir1986@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tel
Iran
Arash Pourhabib
arash.pourhabib@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
1100 Hensel Drive Apartment Y 34.
College Station TX 77840-1695
USA
effectiveness of including a second judge in the process and identifying
its effects on performance and error rates. In addition, we explore the
implications for learning under uncertainty.
Modeling Airport Security Operations
Airport security operations such as those conducted by the US
Transportation Security Administration (TSA) are complex and dynamic
in nature. As part of a multi-year effort to improve security at airports, a
system dynamics model of security operations is developed. The model
was developed to investigate strategic-level issues with a broad scope
and a multi-year time horizon. The model includes issues such as human
resources management, security system testing, operations, compliance
with standard operating procedures, and resource allocation. In the
paper, the model is described and used for policy analysis.
Andrew Cox
andrew.cox@ dhs.gov
Department of Homeland Security
Transportation Security Administration
601 South 12th Street
Arlington VA 22202
USA
Real Estate Cycles: A Theory Based on Stock-
Flow Structure of Durable Goods Markets
In this paper by means of a simple system dynamics model, we have
addressed a cycle-producing mechanism in the owner-occupied real
estate market which has not been discussed in the real estate economics
literature before. This mechanism is based on ac ion of supply
and demand which arises from specific stock-flow structure of a durable
goods market like the owner-occupied market. Comparison between our
model and a famous model of rental market (Wheaton, 1999) shows that
despite the rental market, in the owner-occupied market an increase in
durability of buildings leads to more intensive oscillations. Also the
effect of price elasticity of supply on the cycles in the owner-occupied
market is much more complex than that of the rental market.
Furthermore a model integrating the two markets is developed. Model
analysis reveals that the interrelations between the two markets make the
effect of some parameters on the rental market cycles different from
what is suggested by the rental market model. Our work uncovers the
Tich dynamic complexity of the real estate system and can serve as a
good example of applying systems thinking principles to complex real
world problems. Keywords: Real Estate Cycles; Owner Occupied
Market; Durable Goods; Cycle-Producing Mechanism (CPM); Dynamic
Complexity; System Dynamics Modeling.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 83
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Kirsten Matheus
kirsten.matheus@ gmx.de
Keplerstrasse 15
22765 Hamburg
Germany
Thomas Harbich
Carmeq GmbH
Carnotstrake 4
10587 Berlin
Germany
Anna Mayerthaler
anna.mayerthaler@ tuwien.ac.at
Vienna University of Technology
Ottakringerstrasse 19/19
1160 Vienna
Austria
Reinhard Haller
reinhard.haller@ ivv.tuwien.ac.at
Vienna University of Technology
Gusshausstrasse 30
1040 Wien
Austria
Guenter Emberger
guenter.emberger@ tuwien.ac.at
University of Technology - Vienna
Institute of Transport Planning
Gusshausstrasse 30/2
A- 1040 Vienna
Austria
Marleen H. F. McCardle-
Keurentjes
m.mccardle@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1.2.19
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Business Dynamics Model for Market
Acceptance C onsidering Individual Adoption
Barriers
The technological developments of our time provide the basis fora
continuous flow of new applications and services. But even when
allowing for significant improvements in everyday life, some of these
innovations need an incredibly long time to be broadly - if at all -
accepted in the market. Marketing and technical implementation are
often only partially responsible. Consumers additionally need to
overcome personal barriers to adopt an innovation. The height of this
barrier is determined by manifold aspects like: Financials, required
infrastructure, technical affinity, expected learning efforts, and safety
concems. In this article we introduce a market diffusion model that
explicitly takes individual adoption barriers into account, while
maintaining the top down approach of Business Dynamics. The model
includes a feedback loop between the number of existing adopters and
the number of consumers prepared to adopt the innovation. It explicitly
allows for the adoption by only a portion of the potential customers.
Furthermore, the model can reproduce tipping points and visually
explain slow market devel or unexpected late
A Land-Use/Transport interaction model for
Austria
This paper presents the attempt to set up the dynamic land-use transport
interaction (LUTI) model MARS (Metropolitan Activity Relocation
Simulator) for a nation wide case study of Austria. To this end we
adapted the existing urban MARS model. The purpose of the model is to
capture the most i i ions and feedback mechani:
between the land-use- and the transport system. Particular attention was
paid to the structural changes of the model and the estimation of the
transport model parameters as well as the land-use model parameters,
which are modelled with a gravity model approach. For this purpose we
used the build-in optimizer of the modelling software V ensim by
minimizing the sum of squared deviations between observed and
predicted data. We present the model fit, estimated parameters and
results of a first model run (30 years).
Is Group Model Building worthwhile?
Considering the effectiveness of GMB
Many field studies are available that describe successful applications of
model-driven group decision support methodologies. However, these
studies might suffer from a potential bias of contextual factors. Recently,
there has been a call for a more rigorous testing of the effectiveness of
84 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Etiénne A.J. A. Rouwette
e.rouwette@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Jac A. M. Vennix
j.vennix@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Eric Jacobs
ejacobs@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Alexandra Medina-Borja
alexandra medinaborja@ upr.edu
University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez
Department of Industrial Engineering
II-205 Industrial Engineering Building
Mayaguez PR 00680
USA
Yesenia Cruz
Univ of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez
Dept of Industrial Engineering
Mayaguez PR 00680
USA
Joaquin Medin-Molina
jmedin@ prtc.net
Univ of Puerto Rico at Bayamon
Department of Physics
Bayamon PR
USA
James Melhuish
jamesmelhuis@ gmail.com
BAE Systems
82 Harvard Street
Newtonville MA ‘02460- 2232
USA
Nicholas Pioch
BAE Systems Advanced Info Tech
6 New England Executive Park
Burlington MA 01803
USA
model-driven methodologies. The purpose of our research is to
determine the effectiveness of a particular model-driven approach,
Group Model Building (GMB), on decision-making in a controlled
research situation. In this paper, we first clarify ‘effectiveness’ as a
construct. Then, we describe the present study. We compared groups
supported by GMB (13 groups) and not being supported (13 groups) on
perceptions of the quality of decision-making and on the quality of their
decisions. Preliminary results show that there are no winners. However,
some differences in the perceptions of the members of decision-making
groups call for further testing in the future.
Understanding the Role of Victims' Non-
Discretionary Factors in Hurricane Evacuation
Dynamics
Determining in advance emergency supplies and personnel required for a
disaster relief operation is crucial for mitigating the societal impacts of
such events. Prompt and effective response to either natural or man-
made emergencies requires the analysis of key information where the
role of disaster relief organizations is multiple. DROs approve the
assistance requested by victims and coordinate supplies and personnel
collected and transported to the disaster site. They provide mental health
services and shelter while more long-term government aid is decided.
The dynamic framework presented here was formulated to understand
the complex multi-factor dynamic processes evolving over time during a
hurricane emergency. It maps the process of interdependence between
resource availability and satisfaction with human services and the
influence of | the media reacting to victims' complaints. It hypothesizes
key mecl governing these rel E factors such
as customer reactions to the category event; training level of response
personnel; race, social stratum, home/pet ownership and education are all
taken into account. The model was built with the analysis of data
collected from victims of the 2005 Katrina Hurvicane and paired with
real operational data provided by the American Red Cross and then
calibrated/validated by real data from the 2005 Rita Hurricane.
Improving Military Strategy using Predictive
Agents with Embedded Mental Simulation
Models
Air strategy planners have the difficult task of providing commanders
with campaign plans prior to commencing operations, and
recommending options during the campaign. BAE Systems has
developed the C: Jer’s Model and lation Toolkit
(CMIST), a tool for creating and using simulation models appropriate for
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 85
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Andrew Seidel
andy seidel@ baesystems.com
BAE Systems Advanced Info Tech
6 New England Executive Park
Burlington MA 01803
USA
Mot dT. Mojtahedzadeh
mohammad.mojtahedzadeh@ boeing.com
The Boeing Company
PO Box 3707 MC4A-73
Seattle WA 98124-2207
USA
M. Hashem Moosavi Haghighi
musavee@ gmail.com
Ministry of Agriculture
PO Box 71555-617
Shiraz
Tran
high-level strategic decision-making. CMIST provides a unified
graphical interface for a variety of methodologies appropriate for
systems modeling, including System Dynamics, Bayesian cause-effect,
individual agents, Coloured Petri Nets, and other families. Recent
development on CMIST enables an agent to run an embedded simulation
model representing its own internal, usually simplified, model of the
outside world. This proactive intent model allows the agent to project the
future state of the world in order to make decisions and take appropriate
preventative measures before those future states occur. We discuss
comparative results using reactive vs. proactive intent models in the
context of our notional Insurgent Growth model.
Objective Analysis of Subjective Feedback
Structures: The Problem of C onsistency in
Explaining Model Behavior
Real-world concepts can be operationalized into variety of feedback
structures which may be mathematically identical but diverse in the
number of feedback loops. Factors including model purpose, the
modelers perspective and the intended audience all influence the final
layout of a feedback rich model. One challenge in the analysis of model
behavior is to account for the variations in the appearance of its structure
and the feedback loops. This paper focuses on consistency in explaining
model behavior illustrates some of the issues related to the cancellation
problem and figure-8 loops. Both conditions can potentially lead to poor
and even contradictory explanations of model behavior based on its
idiosyncratic feedback structure. The paper concludes by illustrating how
the pathway participation approach addresses these two issues and calls
for comparative studies to using altemative approaches to model analysis
to better understand the general principles and subtleties in connecting
the structure to the behavior and explaining observed dynamics.
Different methods in formal analysis can lear from one another and
expedite the development of user-friendly tools to aid model analysis
that serve a wider audience.
Combination of Econometric Methods and
System Dynamics Approach to Improve the
Iranian Agricultural Policies
Agriculture is an important economic sector and a strategic component
for the rural development in Iran. However, the sector has been beset by
a labour surplus situation. This situation, together with inappropriate
combination of labour with other factors of production, has caused a low
growth rate in the agricultural production. The main objective of this
study was to determine the optimal employment and production policies
in the Iranian agricultural sector. Then, production, export-import,
demand for labour and agricultural products, as well as the wage
functions were estimated using the data collected during 35 years, and
substituted in the economic component of the System Dynamics (SD)
model to simulate the outcomes. The results indicate that a downward
tum for the labour surplus problem will happen in 2008. Afterwards, the
agricultural employment will gradually decline. Consequently, the
86 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
J. Bradley Morrison
bmorriso@ brandeis.edu
Brandeis University
19 Fox Run Road
Bedford MA 01730
USA
Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6
5020 Bergen
Norway
Josephine Kaviti Musango
jmusango@ csir.co.za
CSIR
PO Box 320
Stellenbosch 7599
South Africa
cityward migration will increase, and the unemployment problem shifts
from the rural to the urban areas. The average annual production growth
rate in the 2007-2021 period is estimated at 1.8%. Furthermore, higher
duction is needed with ial i: and
adoption of appropriate technology. This study further demonstrates that
combination of the SD approach and econometrics methods is highly
effective in arriving at logical answer. Keywords: System Dynamics
Simulation, Econometrics Methods, Socio-Economic Model,
Agricultural Labour, Agricultural Sector Polices.
The Problem with Workarounds is that They
Work
Resource shortages are a fact of life in most organizations and in the
currently challenging economic climate will be even more common.
There is little doubt that resource shortages are widespread and that they
lead to undesirable outcomes, yet there has been surprisingly little
attention to questions about why they occur and even more insidiously
why they persist despite the clear adverse es. This
paper develops a grounded theory that helps to understand chronic
resource shortages, drawing on data from field work at a manufacturing
firm adopting lean manufacturing. The paper examines how the actions
of various groups (e.g., managers, production workers, and other shop
floor workers) interact with each other and with the physical
characteristics of the workplace to sustain problematic resource
shortages. The paper uses a causal loop diagram and a stylized system
dynamics model to highlight some important features of the dynamics.
Peak oil, biofuels, and long-term food security
Recent oil prices escalations, current production of biofuels from food,
and rising food prices have caused an awareness of a potential conflict
between biofuel production and food availability. Biofuels could help
countries reduce their dependence on imported oil and biofuels could
lead to some reductions in CO2 emissions. For such reasons
governments have stimulated research and development and subsidized
biofuel production. In this study we use a simulation model to study how
markets for oil, biofuel, and food may interact and develop in the long
run as world oil production peaks and starts to decline due to resource
depletion. We hypothesize that a shortage of oil will make biofuels
highly profitable, lead to a take-off for the biofuel industry, and lead to
food shortages and starvation. We do not reject this hypothesis. A
number of policies all tend to delay rather than cure the problem of food
shortage. Therefore it seems urgent to start discussing and building
support for a ban on biofuel production from food.
South African Energy Model: A System
Dynamics Approach
This paper provides a South African energy model that was developed as
a first step towards a comprehensive Threshold 21 model for South
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 87
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Alan C. Brent
abrent@ csir.co.za
NRE, CSIR
PO Box 320
Stellenbosch 7599
South Africa
Andrea Marcello Bassi
ab@ millennium-institute.org
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650
Arlington VA 22201
USA
Phuong Linh Thi Nguyen
phuonglinhmc@ gmail.com
Asian University
89 Moo 12 Highway 331
Huay Yai Banglamung
Chonburi 20150
Thailand
Trond Nilsen
xorgnz@ gmail.com
University of Washington
Dept of Systems & Ind Eng
1310 NE 52nd St
Seattle WA 98105 USA
Brian Houle
bhoule@ u.washington.edu
University of Washing
223D Condon Hall Box 353340
1100 NE Campus Parkway
Seattle WA 98195-3340 USA
Africa. The energy sector consists of five sub-models, which are
structured around the supply and demand of electricity, coal, oil, and
natural gas in the sector. The model was used to examine a set of policies
that the South African government is currently considering, e.g.
expansion of nuclear energy production and implementation of more
stringent energy efficiency measures. The analyses show that energy
efficiency measures are indeed the best option to curb the supply and
demand constraints, which the energy sector faces, in the short term. In
general, the paper demonstrates how a system dynamics approach can be
utilized effectively to support understanding of energy-related issues and
clarify the advantages and disadvantages related to the options available
to government and the private sector. The paper also highlights potential
pitfalls that may be encountered when building such a model. Future
developments include extending the model to incorporate the linkages
between the energy sector and the economy, society and environment,
which would complete the T21 framework for South A frica, and
extending the model, with models for other countries in the region, to the
Southern A frican Development Community.
The Long Runs Effects of Competitive
Undervaluation of Dong Currency on the
Economic Growth of Vietnam
After joining the World Trade Organization, Vietnam attracts more and
more foreign investment. Large increase in foreign capital has been led
to an overheating economy. Vietnam has been depreciating its currency
over the last several years compared to the dollar, making Vietnam’s
exports to the U.S. lower-priced. In short run, it helps Vietnam to
increase the exports and boost national income. However, in the long
Tun, it is expected to negatively affect the economic growth. Since
imports become expensive because of undervalued currency, Vietnam
can not afford to update the technology improvements. With the lack of
updating on technology imp! , itis i ible to maintain per
capita growth. The impacts on technological growth in Vietnam,
measured as Total Factor Productivity, can affect the per capita growth
of Vietnam. This paper investigates what long term effects on the
economy of Vietnam when the Dong currency is undervalued.
Exploring the Dynamics of Music Piracy
Recently sales of physical music media have declined along with music
industry revenues - the reasons are complex and poorly understood. We
present three models exploring claims made in the conversation over
piracy and the music industry's future. We model stakeholder
perspectives rather than the full industry to identify their assumptions
and the implications of their views, including: (1) Music industry labels
claim music piracy directly supplants music sales; (2) Artists claim free
music distribution can increase artist revenue through concert sales; and
(3) Some academics claim reduced music sales revenue is attributable to
other market changes (e.g., increased entertainment competition) rather
88 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Douglas Kuzenski
University of Washington
Information School
Arpan Sheth
University of Washington
Information School
Nathaniel Osgood
osgood@ alum.mit.edu
University of Saskatchewan
Computer Science Dpt 280.6 Thorvaldson
110 Science Place
Saskatoon SK S7N 5C9
Canada
Nathaniel Osgood
osgood@ alum.mit.edu
University of Saskatchewan
Computer Science Dpt 280.6 Thorvaldson
110 Science Place
Saskatoon SK S7N 5C9
Canada
than piracy. Modeled results suggest that, for each claim respectively:
(1) Music labels' mental models are simplistic and do not reflect current
research findings; (2) Artists can enhance their concert revenues through
piracy as free marketing; and (3) competition with other media explains
part of declining music industry revenues.
SILVER: Software in Support of the System
Dynamics Modeling Process
While the System Dynamics modeling process can yield invaluable high
level insights, it gives rise to a tremendous amount of detail complexity.
In the course of their work, modelers must track successive model
versions, the motivation for and assumptions underlying particular “what
if” scenarios, and the implicit relationships between scenarios, model
versions and various extemal artifacts such as spreadsheets, symbolic
culations, and extemal d ion. Failure to
adequately manage such complexity can reduce the transparency,
, and ility of the modeling process. While adl to
good modeling practices can aid this process, it often falls prey to
comer-cutting or human error. This paper describes software that helps
manage such complexity, by permitting modelers to easily access and
succinctly compare historic versions of a model, by making explicit
linkages between scenarios, the model versions and assumptions
underlying them, and the motivations for and external files associated
with model artifacts.
Representing Progression and Interactions of
Comorhbidities in A ggregate and Individual-
Based Systems Models
Health policy models have attracted significant offered important
insights in to health trends and policy selection. More complete
accounting for the cost and health implications of upstream interventions
is hindered by the need to consider impact on, and interactions between,
multiple comorbidities. Within this paper, we explore several distinct
approaches for representing comorbidities, some of them at the
aggregate level, and some of them at the individual level. All of these
representations have the virtue of being declarative, in that they allow
the user to focus on what is to be characterized, rather than how it is to
be implemented. Our exploration suggests that while several aggregate
representations of comorbidities are possible, they suffer from a variety
of shortcomings, ranging from low fidelity to combinatorial blowup.
While individual-level representations impose a heavy performance load,
greater difficulties in calibration and less rapid analysis, such
representations do offer greater transparency, modifiability, scalability,
and modularity, and ease of representing transmission and influence
networks. With much to recommend each approach, further research is
needed to shed additional light on the tradeoffs and identify situations
where one representation is preferable to another.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 89
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Peter Otto
ottop@ union.edu
Union Graduate College
410 Terrace Road
Schenectady NY 12306
USA
Martin Simon
si.m@ bluewin.ch
ipgroup
Ruetistrasse 4
CH-8126 Zumikon
Switzerland
Benedict Oyo
boyo@ citmak.ac.ug
Makerere University
Faculty of Computing and IT
PO Box 7062
Kampala
Uganda
Onur Ozgiin
onur.ozgun@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University
Industrial Engineering Department
Bebek 34342 Istanbul
Turkey
Yaman Barlas
ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University
Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul
Turkey
Coordinating quality care: A policy model to
simulate adoption of electronic health records
This article reports on a theoretical simulation model to investigate
effects from policy interventions in the adoption of electronic health
records among hospitals, physicians, and patients. The project draws on
established system dynamics diffusion theories and provides a
conceptual framework to develop and test interventions to promote
adoption of electronic medical records. Using data from the Greater
Capital Region, Northem New Y ork State, the findings from the
simulation experiments suggests that there is no single right intervention
but a combination of measures to promote the use of electronic health
records not only on the provider side but also among patients.
Re-conceptualisation of Participative Modelling
Process Design Effectiveness and Outcomes
Research into improvement of the design of system dynamics modelling
process has attracted little attention probably because system
dynamicists find existing designs adequate. However, participative
modelling which involves clients/participants without prior modelling
knowledge requires methodological details that show how a real-life
situation translates into a simulation model. This paper calls for renewed
attention on the critical i that make parti
process design more effective. Such requirements have been found to
include: suitability of system dynamics for client's problem; purpose of
modelling effort; clarity of client's problem; number of participants and
whom to involve in the modelling process; the phase in the model
building process and type of task performed; time available from
participants. In addition, a rigorous design emphasises modelling process
outcomes arising from iterations in problem articulation cycle, modelling
proficiency cycle and solution refinement cycle. In harmonising these
two streams of design considerations, this paper investigates two
research questions at the interface of modelling design effectiveness and
modelling outcomes.
Discrete vs. Continuous Simulation: When Does
It Matter?
The purpose of this study i is to illustrate the similarities ‘and differences
between discrete event simul and
A simple M/M/2 queuing system with crowd-dependent arrival rate is
used. In the first part, the arrival rate decreases immediately as the
number of customers in the system increases. The system is modeled
using discrete event and continuous simulation. The results of two
simulations are compared with each other and with their analytical
solutions. In the second part, the number of customers in the system
affects the arrival rate first with a continuous information delay, then
with a discrete delay. Discrete and continuous simulations give very
similar results in terms of dynamic behaviors of system variables. There
90 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Ozge Pala
o.pala@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
School of Management
Th van Aquinostraat 1 2 2 PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Jamshid Parvizian
jparvizian@ gmail.com
Isfahan University of Technology
Isfahan 8415683111
Iran
Shakiba Khademolgorani
shakiba_kh@ in.iutac.ir
Isfahan University of Technology
Industrial Department
Isfahan
Tran
Mohamad Hossein Askari Tabatabaei
mh.askaritabatabaei@ in.iut.ac.ir
Department of Industrial Engineering
Isfahan University of Technology
Isfahan
Tran
Ron Pate
repate@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Energy, Resources, and Systems Analysis
PO Box 5800
Albuquerque NM 87185-0735
are some minor differences in terms of the steady-state values of the
variables, particularly the average time spent in system. Finally,
increasing proportionately all parameters of the system (arrival rate and
number of servers), reduces the discreteness of the system, bringing the
discrete and continuous simulation results much closer.
Dynamics of Escalation of Commitment
Escalation of commitment refers to the tendency of decision-makers to
invest in failing courses of action. Research has shown that there are
various causes of escalation, ranging from to psychological
social, and organizational factors. Even though the existence of the
escalation bias is well established through experimental and case
research the dynamics of escalation is not very clear. There are two
possible explanations to how commitment evolves to generate escalation.
The first one is the temporal model which suggests that initially
economic factors will be determined and in time behavioral factors will
gain dominance. The second one is the aggregate model which suggests
that the relative importance of behavioral variables versus economic
factors leads to escalation or withdrawal. This paper reports on a System
Dynamics model that was used to test these two explanations to see
which generates the escalation prototype.
System Dynamics Modeling of Emigration and
Brain Drain
Net migration rate of -3.28 migrants/1000 population ranked Iran 145th
in the world. Popular di about Iranian immigration focuses on the
social and political freedoms associated with relocation. In the current
research, the focus is on the authority of the educated people, their
impacts on the society, their access to the power and the wealth which
seems far negligible. The elites of Iran are no longer the educated
people. Based on this assumption, a system dynamics approach is
presented to study the long term effects of the emigration on Iranian
society. Each emigrant develops themselves in the target country and
attracts more emigrants. The success and satisfaction in the target
country motivates the young generation to move than to change. The
emigrants, when their number increases to millions, form a basement to
attract more talented ones from the source country. Emigration of elites
is more than a move of people; it has important negative effects on the
country to produce wealth, to become industrialized, and to produce
more talented generations.
Systems modeling and analysis for commercial
pathways assessment of oil crop based biofuels in
Hawaii
A systems-level analysis was conducted to assess the
potential for growing oilseeds and refining the oil into advanced
biofuels. A system dynamics model was constructed to be the primary
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 91
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Stephen H. Conrad
shconra@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Infrastructure Modeling and Analysis
PO Box 5800 MS 1138
Albuquerque NM 87185-1138
USA
Aldo Zagonel
aazagon@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137
Kawika Pierson
kawika@ mitedu
MIT
235 Albany Street #8031
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
Roberto Poles
roberto.poles@ rmit.edu.au
RMIT University
42 Coates Street
Bentleigh VIC 3204
Australia
France Cheong
france.cheong@rmit.edu.au
RMIT University
School of Business Info Tech
239 Bourke Street
Melboume Vic 3000
Australia
analysis tool employed to evaluate the economic potential for growing
oilseeds at a commercial scale and refining the oil into renewable jet fuel
and green diesel. Focus was placed on initial penetration into niche
markets - ones thought to offer the most favorable economic conditions.
Here we use Hawaii as an exemplar of our commercialization analysis
approach. If a case for commercialization can be made for one (or
several) niche markets, they could serve as nucleation sites for
improving production efficiencies and serve as the “jumping-off point”
for much more widespread commercialization. Conversely, if it proves
difficult to make the case for commercialization within these most-
favorable market niches, we will have learned that commercialization is
unlikely to be economically viable anywhere at present - and
importantly, the analysis will have helped identify the chief obstacles to
jalization and what conditions will be required to change for
commercialization to become economically viable in the future.
Modeling the Cyclical Nature of Aggregate
Airline Industry Profits
The aggregate profits of the airline industry have been dominated by a
cyclical mode since before deregulation in the 1970s. In this paper we
discuss several dynamics that combine to cause profit cycles: The
misperception of the delay around capacity acquisition, the pro-cyclical
ticket price setting policy and the countercyclical effect of industry
congestion on passenger demand. By adding numerous endogenous
feedbacks, extensions of previously used standard structures and wholly
new structures we quantify the strength of these feedbacks, replicate the
past behavior of the industry, and prescribe policies that can help to
mitigate the cycle in airline industry earnings.
Inventory Control in Closed Loop Supply C hain
using System Dynamics
Inventory control is a fundamental activity in closed loop supply chains,
icularly for facturing processes. Several models have been
developed in the literature where the aim is mostly to optimize cost or
profit and to find the optimal order quantity for an integrated production
and remanufacturing system. In this study, we explore a System
Dynamics approach in order to model an inventory control system for a
remanufacturing process in the context of a Closed Loop Supply Chain.
Particularly, the return process is modelled through the influences
relationships which several factors have on such process. The factors
considered are residence time of the product with customer, service
agreement with customers and customer behaviour in returning used
products. The findings suggest that a reduction of residence time and an
increase in the level of service agreement with customers, which in tum
increases customer behaviour in retuming used product, can lead to
efficiency in inventory management for companies involved in
remanufacturing process. In addition, we provide two simple case studies
in support of these findings.
92 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Erik Pruyt
e.pruyt@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
Erik Pruyt
e.pruyt@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
Erik Pruyt
e.pruyt@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
Erik Pruyt
e.pruyt@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
The Soft Drugs Debate in the Netherlands: A
Qualitative System Dynamics A nalysis
The Dutch Soft Drugs policy will soon be under review. Regarding
Dutch Soft Drugs policy, the Dutch population and political arena could
be divided into three groups: those who do not really care, those strongly
in favor of legalizing cultivation and use of soft drugs, and those strongly
in favor of banning soft drugs. The points of view of the two latter
groups are analyzed in this paper using a qualitative System Dynamics
perspective.
Cholera in Zimbabwe
By the end of December 2008, alarming reports and articles concerning
the cholera outbreak in Zimbabwe received plenty of intemational media
coverage. By that time 30000 cases of cholera infections and 1600
cholera deaths had been reported. In the first week of January 2009, a
System Dynamics simulation model related to this cholera epidemic was
created which was tumed into a ‘hot’ testing/teaching case. Although the
model contains some bold assumptions, the dynamics of the model is
sufficiently interesting for to be presented. This case is a System
Dynamics study under uncertainty focused on exploring the general
dynamics over time.
Saving a Bank? Cracking the Case of the Fortis
Bank
This paper presents a simple experimental System Dynamics model of
the underlying value and market values of a bank to analyze the loss of
trust in the bank. The System Dynamics model was developed on 28
September 2008 -the day the governments of the Benelux countries met
ina great hurry to rescue the Fortis bank- in order to gain a better
understanding of the potential dynamics of bank crises and to test
policies for keeping banks from collapsing. The System Dynamics
model -as well as the exam case based on it- is interesting because of
the actuality and importance of the topic, the small size and simplicity of
the model, its potential to generate different dynamic behaviors, and its
usefulness for policy exploration.
Making System Dynamics Cool? Using Hot
Testing & Teaching Cases
This paper deals with the use of ‘hot’ real-world cases for both testing
and teaching purposes such as in the Introductory System Dynamics
course at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. The paper
starts with a brief overview of the System Dynamics curriculum. Then
the problem-oriented teaching and testing approach is explained,
followed by a ion and discussion of several les of ‘hot’
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 93
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Erik Pruyt
e.pruyt@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
Jill H. Slinger
j.h.slinger@ tbm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5
2628 BX Delft
Netherlands
Cornelia van Daalen
c.vandaalen@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Tech Policy and Mgt
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
Gonenc Y iicel
g.yucel@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5 Room B-3-280
2628 BX Delft
The Netherlands
Michael Quigley
michael@ michael-quigley.com
University of Salford
6 Come Street
Little Hulton Manchester M38 9WG
UK
Brian C. Dangerfield
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford
Salford Business School CORAS
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford M5 4WT
UK
cases. The main goal of presenting the use of ‘hot’ testing/teaching cases
is to spur other System Dynamics lecturers on to doing the same, and to
start up a small network for exchanging the ‘hottest’ cases.
Hop, Step, Step and J ump Towards Real-W orld
Complexity @ Delft University of Technology
This paper deals with System Dynamics education at Delft University of
Technology, the Netherlands. It focuses more specifically on the
quadruple jump approach towards dealing with real-world dynamic
complexity. The paper starts with an overview of the System Dynamics
courses, situated within the broader curriculum. Then recent innovations
in the Introductory System Dynamics course are discussed. Finally, some
of the lessons learned are distilled. The rationale behind this paper are
the beliefs that (higher) education determines to a large extent the quality
of (the next generation) professional System Dynamics modelers, and
hence, the field of System Dynamics as a whole, and that sharing
(innovative and/or proven) educational practices, and exchanging actual
and challenging (teaching and testing) cases may lead to further
improving the quality of System Dynamics education.
Wil A. Thissen
thissen@ tbm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
The Economics of Education: is it Profitable to
be Ignorant?
In the UK, formal tertiary education comes at monetary cost to those
who choose to participate. Currently 43% of young people enter
universities in the belief that they will recoup the initial expense in
higher salaries, later in life. Whilst this is a historically true model for the
majority of graduates, many analysts believe that the Government's push
for a 50% participation rate, coupled with rising costs to attend
university, could affect the profitability of higher education and lead to a
situation where ignorance is not only bliss but also an economically
sound decision. This paper explores the current situation conceming the
economic benefit of higher education: building a model to represent
subject areas that do and do not offer long-term economic benefits. A
stock-and-flow model is built, as a policy tool, to articulate where the
delays appear in the system and reasons behind cyclical supply-demand
employment gaps.
94 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Jaziar Radianti
jaziar.radianti@ hia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ uia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway
Eliot Rich
rich@acm.org
University at Albany
Dept of Info T gy Mi
A Quest for a Framework to Improve Software
Security: Vulnerability Black Markets Scenario
There are numerous discussions on possible leverage points in improving
software quality and they have been placed in various context--from
technical approach, improving user education to economic approach.
One of central points of the discussions is on the best policy to handle
vulnerability discoveries. Various approaches have been developed:
from secret reporting, full-disclosure, responsible disclosure to a market
approach. The dominant aspect of the latter is about the Vulnerability
Black Market (VBM), which emerged due to the latter development, as
an alternative for malicious hackers to sell exploits and malware that
take advantage of the flaws in the software. The model in this paper
draws on empirical observation on black markets and market-based
approach for vulnerability discovery to generate a simple model of
VBM. The model results suggest that efficient legal markets may attract
ly
1400 Washington Avenue BA-310
Albany NY 12222
USA
Martin Rafferty
rafferm@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA
UK
Mahtab Farshchi
m.farshchi@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA
UK
Martin Rafferty
rafferm@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA
UK
licious hackers to enter the legal markets and may reduce their
likelihood to be involved in vulnerability black markets. However, better
patching management may mitigate the abuse of software vulnerabilities.
A Simulation Modelling of Property Markets: A
Case of the UK Housing Market
This paper provides a system approach to the analysis of the property
markets by first setting out a high level model of the market. The
imperfections in information and distortions in such markets are widely
acknowledged and accounted for while the role of legal, financial and
social institutions being emphasised. The rate of production in the
property markets in most advanced economies is a function of
institutional factors as developed over time representing unique and
path- dependent characteristics. The paper describes the main factors that
have gone into the production of a general System Dynamics simulation
model of the property markets which further focuses on the
characteristics of the UK housing market as a case study and provides an
analysis of its current structure. The paper indicates how in the absence
of reliable and sufficient information simulation modelling can aid
decision making in the real estate. As an imperfect market the role and
potential areas of impact of governmental policy are outlined. The
effects of tightening worldwide credit regimes on the UK construction
industry are included in the model. The relationships between the credit
crunch and the behaviour of the construction industry are identified and
are explored. The analysis presented in the paper concludes with
potential scenarios for determining the future behaviour of the market.
Butterflies and Buffers
This paper presents a brief discourse on chaotic behaviour and provides
an implementation of a classical example from existing chaos theory; the
Lorenz strange attractor. The implementation is carried out using
standard System Dynamics software and techniques. The paper then
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 95
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Hossein Rahdari
rahdarii@ yahoo.co.uk
Sharif University
Graduate School of Management & Econ
Azadi Ave
Tehran Iran
Mohammad Amin Zargarzadeh
a_zargarzadeh@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
298 Shahid Soheili Khalabanan St
Maaliabad Shiraz Iran
Hamed Nozari
hanozari@ yahoo.com
University of Tehran
Department of Imgation
Karaj Iran
Leila Soltani
laylasoltani@ yahoo.com
Sharif University
No 43 Malekian St
Transhahr St KarimKhan St
Tehran Iran
Hossein Rahdari
rahdarii@ yahoo.co.uk
Sharif University
Graduate School of Management & Econ
Azadi Ave
Tehran Iran
Alireza Forouzan
ali_forozan@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Atefe Ramezankhani
atefe.ramezankhani@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Thechnology
Room 99 Block 9 Tarasht 2 Dormitory
Moslem Hoseinmardi St Azadi Avn
Tehran Iran
goes on to describe a classical buffered feedback system; the K tesibios
clock. The implementation of this feedback system is again carried out
using standard System Dynamics software and techniques. Both systems
are then amalgamated to unite the butterfly effect of the Lorenz attractor
with the buffered nature of the water clock. It is postulated that the
resultant taming of the chaotic behaviour generated by the Lorenz
attractor through the feedback buffer of the Ktesibios machine is
common to many systems; brief examples are given. It is concluded that,
in some cases at least, it is the overwhelming of the buffer that leads to a
tipping point retuming the whole system to a state of chaotic behaviour.
Implementing a model of a natural buffered system with chaotic input is
identified as an area for further work.
Gasoline Rationing Plan in Iran: A Symptomatic
Solution
Iran is a resource-based country and these resources have brought
advantages and disadvantages for the country. It seems that
disadvantages are results of mismanagement of the resources and not the
existence of resources. Fuel subsidy is an example of such
mismanagements. Actually while fuel subsidies are common in the
Middle East, the oil-richest place of the world, Iranian domestic fuel
prices are among the lowest in the world. The low fuel prices, population
and urbanization growth caused growth of fuel consumption and
consequently growth of subsidies. But because nothing can grow forever,
two years ago the government had to start rationing plan to reduce the
growth of consumption due to budget and gasoline stock limitations. In
this paper we are going to model the dynamics of the problem and
answer why the government had to execute the rationing plan. In
addition, we try to show that this solution is not a fundamental solution.
It is a symptomatic solution and after a while ration of each car will
decrease. In the end, we offer two policies to limit the demand naturally,
not by force of rationing plan, and try to offer a fundamental solution to
manage the fuel consumption.
Analyzing the Effect of Global Steel Price
Fluctuation on Iran's Steel-Maker Stock Prices:
A System Dynamics A pproach
Steel making is an energy intensive industry and for this reason, energy
prices, especially oil and natural gas prices, have an important effect on
this industry. In 2008, the sharp rise of crude oil as well as iron ore price
caused the sharp rise of steel price because of the rise in prices of key
production factors. But Iran's producers experienced almost no rise in
their production factor prices especially key factors of energy and iron
ore prices. As a matter of fact, inexpensive energy and iron ore are
competitive advantages of steel makers in Iran because the huge natural
resources of the country let the government to provide inexpensive
production factors for the industry. But these inexpensive factors have
some side effects that one of them is on the stock price of steel makers in
stock market. In this paper we are to model the effects of fluctuations in
96 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Pouyan Foroughi
pouyanforoughi@ gmail.com
Sharif University Of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran Iran
Hazhir Rahmandad
hazhir@ vtedu
Virginia Tech
Norther Virginia Center Rm 430
7054 Haycock Road
Falls Church VA 22043
USA
Thanujan Ratnarajah
thanujan@ vLedu
Virginia Polytechnic Institute
Industrial & Systems Engineering Dept
7054 Haycock Road
Falls Church VA 22043
USA
Atefe Ramezankhani
atefe.ramezankhani@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Thechnology
Room 99 Block 9 Tarasht 2 Dormitory
Moslem Hoseinmardi St Azadi Avn
Tehran
Iran
Mostafa Najafiyazdi
najafiyazdi.m@ gmail.com
McGill University
688 Sherbrooke West
CED Lab
Montreal Quebec
Canada
Meesala Srinivasa Rao
msrsrinivasa@ gmail.com
Indian Institute of Technology
Reliability Engineering Centre
IIT Kharagpur 721302
West Bangal
India
world steel price on stock price of one of Iranian steel producers. In the
end, we will offer some policies to mitigate the fluctuations of stock
prices.
Deciding on Software Pricing and Openness
Under Competition
The success of many open source applications has motivated commercial
firms to explore how they can benefit from opening their software
platforms in hope of getting free high quality contributors and more
complementary products. Y et the openness decision is tightly coupled
with the pricing of the software (e.g. openness limits the price that can be
charged) and the reinforcing feedback loops of network effects and
complementary products. In this paper we explore how there
interconnections impact the optimum pricing and openness decision for
two firms in competition. Reinforcing loops increase the value of early
market lead and put pressure on the competing firms to seek such
advantage. We show that the competitive equilibrium under strong
reinforcing loops calls for highly | open. software products with deep early
discounts, which may the profitability of the
players in the market. Proprietary platforms and higher prices are
favored in the absence of these loops.
A Model for Technology Life Cycle (TLC) from
System Dynamics View point
Technology life cycle (TLC) is what leads to product and process life
cycles. Understanding the complexities and dynamical behavior of TLC
is the key concept for managing the technology, policy making and
strategies such as pricing or marketing. Some major works has been
done on modeling PLC (Product life cycle), pricing strategies and
marketing within an industry or among some competitor organizations.
Although many there are a lot of works on TLC almost all of which
declare its complexity and dynamical behavior, little effort is given to
study TLC from a dynamical view point. In this work, a system
dynamics model is presented for TLC based on major casual loops which
drive the essence of dynamic behavior of TLC in order to have a base for
of unique such as multi technology,
and performing an analysis on some of key parameters controlling TLC.
System Dynamics simulation based hybrid
approach for reliability analysis
System reliability is considered as an important performance index.
Repairable standby system's study and analysis is an important topic in
reliability. Analytical techniques become very complicated and
unrealistic especially for modem complex systems. There have been
attempts in the literature to evolve more realistic techniques using
simulation approach for reliability analysis of systems. This paper
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 97
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Joaquim Rocha dos Santos
jrsantos@ usp.br
Universidade de Sao Paulo
Rua Cardoso de Almeida 1165 / 132
CEP 05013-001 Sao Paulo SP
Brazil
Marcelo Ramos Martins
mrmartin@ usp.br
Universidade de Sao Paulo
Escola Politecnica
Av Prof Mello Moraes 2231
Sao Paulo SP 05508-900
Brazil
Abraham Sin Oih Yu
abraoyu@ ipt.br
Universidade de Sao Paulo
Paulo Tromboni Nascimento
tromboni@ usp.br
Universidade de Sao Paulo
Scott F. Rockart
srockart@ duke.edu
Duke University
Fuqua School of Business
Box 90120
Durham NC 27708
USA
Shayne Gary
sgary@ unsw.edu.au
University of New South Wales
School of Strategy & Entrepreneurship
Level 5 East Wing
Sydney NSW 2052
Australia
Elena Vidal
Duke University
proposes a hybrid approach called as Markov System Dynamics (MSD)
approach which combines the Markov approach with system dynamics
simulation approach for reliability analysis and to study the dynamic
behavior of systems. This approach will have the advantages of both
Markov as well as System dynamics methodologies. The proposed
framework is illustrated for a standby system with repair with a
numerical example. The results of the simulation when compared with
that obtained by traditional Markov analysis clearly validate the Markov
System Dynamics (MSD) approach as an alternative approach for
reliability analysis.
Renewable Energy: A Framework to Model a
Brazilian C ase of Success (Part I)
In 1973, the first oil crisis leaded most countries to experience economic
problems due to sudden unbalance in their trade balance. This leads to
reactions, limited at the beginning due to short term inelasticity of
petroleum demand, but relevant in long term. Brazil started the Proalcool
program, which extended from 1979 to 1990, with the use of ethanol
cars (E-100). In 1990 this program was ended, due to economic
problems. A decline in international petroleum prices and an increase in
intemational sugar prices, leaded to shortage of ethanol. This shortage
made the users confidence to decline. From that point on, ethanol cars
acquisitions almost dropped to zero. In 2003 a technological innovation,
the flex fuel electronic injection, was launched and was a huge success.
In approximately three years, about 85% of all cars sold in Brazil were
using this technology. It caused a boom in ethanol industry which
competes in terms of resources with sugar industry. This paper presents a
framework to simulate the first period of the overall program which lasts
from 1970 to 2003.
Decision Rules and Organziational Dynamics
What forces shape the dynamics of individual organizations and the
dynamics of organizational populations? We look at how much
difference exists in firms' decision rules and how those differences help
explain differences in the patterns of growth and decline among
competing firms. Using a large data set of German consumer magazines
- observed quarterly from 1972 to 2006 - we estimate and compare
magazines' decision rules on a few key dimensions: pricing to
advertisers; pricing to readers; and the number of editorial pages to be
included in the magazine. We then embed these rules into a system
dynamics model of magazine operations developed by Hall (1976) to
evaluate how fully differences in decision rules explain differences in
firm dynamics. Our hope is that this style of research, taking rich models
based on case studies of individual organizations and generalizing them
to explain the varied dynamics of entire populations of organizations,
will have two contributions. First, it will show the extent to which
differences in rules in organizations explain differences in organizational
dynamics. Second, it will allow us to leverage the body of existing
carefully executed SD case studies into a broader and still richer basis
for understanding firm dynamics.
98 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Luisa Fernanda Rodriguez
Valbuena
luisa_frv@ yahoo.com
Universidad Autonoma de Colombia
Clle 175 17a-11 Casa 68 Alameda Res
Bogota
Colombia
K. R. Divakar Roy
divakarroy@ rediff.com
Andhra University
Dept of Mechanical Engineering
Visakhapatnam 530003 AP
India
Saroj Koul
saroj.koul@ acadiau.ca
Acadia University
Fred C Manning School of Business Adm
307 Rhodes Hall
Wolfville NS B4P 2R6
Canada
William Ryder
onebyke2ryders@ gmail.com
6735 Allview Drive
Columbia MD 21046
Applying didactics for the creation of a
cooperative, non-competitive environment: a
study case in entrepreneurship and team
This research was carried out with the aim of suggesting a new approach
to the concept of entrepreneurship as boosting the skills of economic
self-sufficiency and team work among the students of the branches for
technical and commercial training at the "A quileo Parra" and "Rafel
Uribe Uribe"- educational complexes. We formulated a comprehensive
hodological, | and adaptable framework, i ducing its
contents as well as its practical and future implications. The main feature
is a tight relation to the socio-economic context. In order to obtain a
clear profile of the subjects we measured the latent entrepreneurial
potential among the students by means of questionnaires and
sensibilization workshops which created a non-competitive environment
through interaction activities and systems dynamics.
Financial Performance Appraisal of a Steel
Plant: An SD Model
Proper analysis of the financial statements of a company provides
valuable insights into financial performance. Financial ratio analysis, a
principal tool of financial analysis, determines a company's ability to
raise external financing. In the present work, detailed System Dynamics
(SD) modeling and analysis of the financial performance of a shore
based integrated steel plant is undertaken. The key financial ratios used
for simulation and analysis are (i) Liquidity ratios (ii) Tummover ratios
and (iii) Profitability ratios over a period of 20 years from 1994. SD
model is successfully applied to portray the dynamic behaviour of the
financial system of the plant.
A System Dynamics View of the Phillips
Machine
Although system dynamics practitioners appeal to a bathtub analogy to
explain the basic concepts of system dynamics, few physical water based
models have been used for this purpose. The celebrated Phillips
machine, a hydraulic macroeconomics model built in 1949, illustrates
how this was done for a serious model of a macroeconomic system. This
paper reviews the physical modeling constructs exemplified by the
Phillips machine, relates them to standard system dynamics notation, and
proposes two similar machines to represent basic structures in system.
dynamics instruction.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 99
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, M-R
Felicjan Rydzak
frydzak@ gmail.com
Felix Consultancy
ul Wagnera
52-129 Wroclaw
Poland
Winston P. Ledet
wpledet@ mfg-game.com
Ledet Enterprises, Inc.
7702 FM 1960 East Suite 226
Humble TX 77346
USA
Paul A. Monus
monuspa@ bp.com
BP Exploration and Production
7501 Labrador Circle
Anchorage AK 99502
USA
Alexander V. Ryzhenkov
a.ryzhenkov@ bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar / BWL
Schloss
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany
Sustainable Organizational C hange - Can you
make the change happen with Large Teams
alone?
The article presents some insights from ongoing research on sustainable
organizational change. It focuses on a concept of improvements actions
conducted by teams within manufacturing organization. There are
considered two types of approaches, namely bottom-up - example of
which are empowered, small, cross-functional teams; and top-down -
large teams following rigorous problem solving methodologies. In order
to investigate impact of small teams and large teams on the
organizational system structure a System Dynamics model was
developed. The model investigates the effectiveness of both kinds of
hes from the ive of ional change
effort. The analysis of the model and simulation results is supported by
example of successful organizational change in Lima Refinery. In the
conclusion section the implications for sustainable organizational change
efforts are presented.
A System Dynamics Design of the US Economy
Exit from the Stern Crisis
This paper re-defines two hypothetical laws of capital ecumulation by
including end profit i share and estal:
explicit inverse relation between this share and capital-output ratio.
Other main state variables are labour productivity, employment ratio and
unit value of labour force. A comprehensive Phillips equation, governing
teal labour compensation, is an element of a hypothetical law (HL-IR).
Projecting future macroeconomic evolution takes into account structural
changes in primary distribution of net value added. A fter the recent neo-
conservative defeat there is no place for stabilising policy with the same
or similar aggressiveness as in 2002-2007. Based on the US
macroeconomic data mainly for 1969-2007, computer simulation runs
for a later period (through 2060) exhibit how a postponed non-aggressive
application of CL-IR in 2012 and afterwards could smooth out long
waves of capital accumulation and shorten a period of fluctuations from
24-27 to 14-16 years in the restructured US economy compared to
evolution based on HL-IR. The present stem crisis of the capital
accumulation, probably deepest after the World War II, will last until
2018-2022 when the pre-crisis maximum of net output is restored and
2023-2026 when the pre-crisis maximum of employment is reached
again.
100 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
Abdolrahim Salavitabar
a.salavitabar@ gmail.com
Abazma Research Center
21 Sixth Mehr Alle Fatemieh St
Saba Blvd Ghytarieh Shariaty Ave
Tehran 19336
Tran
Ahmad Abrishamchi
abrisham@ sharif.edu
Sharif University
Civil Engineering Dept
Azadi Street
Tehran
Tran
Jason Sardell
jason_sardell@ hotmail.com
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
43 Baker Rd.
Berlin MA 01503
USA
Stray dogs, street gangs and terrorists:
manifestations of a latent capacity support
system
Pests and other undesirabl lations offer iderable resilience to
interventions attempting to limit or eradicate them. These interventions
often directly aim at reducing these populations through either by
limiting their procreation or accelerating their demise. For example, stray
dogs roam the streets of many major A sian cities in spite of the efforts to
euthanize or castrate them. Street gangs and the violence associated with
them continue in many North A merican cities in spite of considerable
effort on part of law and order institutions to contain them. Suicide
attacks menacing public continue in central Asian countries like
Pakistan, Iraq and A fghanistan in spite of the concerted military
offensives to eradicate their perpetrators. This poster will suggest that a
latent capacity enablement structure that maintains the inflow into the
undesirable population exists in all such cases. Interventions not
cognizant of this structure may only address symptoms and not alleviate
the root cause. The capacity enablement process as a generic metaphor
may help to bring the latent root cause to fore.
A System Dynamic A pproach to Integrated
Water Resources Management of West
Jazmourian (Halil) Basin, Iran
Abstract: Water scarcity, growing demand, low productivity, and water
and land-resources degradation are major threats to sustainability and
equity principles are main water resources management challenges in
arid and semi arid regions in general and in Iran in particular. The
increasing demand for water in recent decade has put the water resource
systems in instability. Moreover the future water demand will definitely
bring critical condition for the inability of water The
objective is to define a conflict resolution mechanism for present and
future demands in a complex water resources system with the objective
of system sustainability subject to uncertainty in natural phenomenon
and management strategies. Results show that demand management as
well as other management policies is essential for sustainability of the
system. System Dynamic (SD) approach is employed and interactive
user friendly media bring possibility to visualize the outcome of each
management strategy, stakeholder behavior and probable hydro-climatic
condition.
Economic Origins of the Mafia and Patronage
System in Sicily
Organized crime satisfies a demand for necessary social services in the
absence of effective government institutions. This paper examines the
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 101
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Oleg V. Pavlov
opavlov@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Sangeeta Sardiwal
sardiws@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA
UK
Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl
Universidad de Talca
‘ACE
Avenida Lircay s/n
Talca
Chile
ise of the Sicilian mafia. Using system dynamics, we model this system
and test various policies to determine what factors have the greatest
impact on mafia power. Based on the experiments, the most effective
policies for reducing mafia power are those that decrease the demand for
private protection services by reducing the threat of banditry in society,
and not those policies that act against the mafia directly. We also
examine historical examples of other mafia-type organizations and
discover that our findings apply not just to Sicily, but also to other
societies including present-day Iraq and Afghanistan.
Evaluating the Effect of Integrated Health and
Social Care Information Systems on Delayed
Discharging of Patients
The integration between health and social care organisations in the UK is
an acknowledged public policy problem. Despite government efforts at
implementing ‘joined up thinking’, government have found this area
frustratingly ‘policy resistant’. The focus of this paper is to look at the
effect that integrated health and social care information systems can have
on delayed discharging of elderly patients in the UK National Health
Service (NHS) and Social Services. A case study approach has been.
applied of the elderly care wards from hospitals at two NHS trusts and a
social services department. System dynamics and Soft Systems
Methodology are used to test the proposition that information systems
can achieve a significant improvement in reducing delayed discharges.
The lusions are that these methodologies provide a sound test bed
for the proposition and that integrated information systems can be useful.
However, only if they stimulate action when there is limited health and
social care capacity present. Integrated information systems should be
used by managers to inform them of the capacity changes that need to be
made throughout the patient process, helping to ensure there is a greater
response and action in reducing delayed discharges.
Towards the use of model structure analysis for
designing flexible learning itineraries
Some large system dynamics models drive simulator interfaces used for
teaching; this is the case of the MacroLab model. Such a model may be
useful for making students with basic instruction in system dynamics
explore the economy as a dynamic system, allowing for diverse inquiry
itineraries. The question is if different exploration itineraries yield
sufficiently similar learning outcomes. This has been tried with ten
student groups. The results are encouraging, but also indicate that the
inquiry scenario design should be based on systematic analysis of the
model's structure: some variables may not be reachable from
everywhere. An ad-hoc structure exploration found such isolated areas.
The use of a reachability matrix is suggested and an initial example is
shown. Also, students need systematic guidance in constructing a loop
102 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl
Universidad de Talca
FACE
Avenida Lircay s/n
Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de
University of St. Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
9000 St Gallen
Switzerland
William Schoenberg
wasbridge@ gmail.com
University of Bergen / Forio Business
797 Bush Street Apt 407
San Francisco CA 94108
USA
David Schoenwald
daschoe@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
1515 Eubank Blvd SE M/S 0370
Albuquerque NM 87123
USA
set that will frame their exploration. Concluding, it is argued that this
kind of instructional design may bring other large system dynamics
models closer to instructional use.
What's in a mental model of a dynamic system?
On the conceptual structure and approaches to
model comparison
This paper deals with the representation of mental models of dynamic
systems (MMDS). The notion of mental model (MM) has always been
fundamental in system dynamics, and 10 years ago, a specific definition
was introduced. However, no conceptual model of MMDS content has
been offered so far. Two assessment and comparison methods have been
borrowed from general MM research:. Are these methods are equivalent
in procedure and results, and do they satisfy specific needs of system
dynamics? Two exemplary MMDAs are compared with both of the
methods, which are found to be different in procedure and in results they
produce. In addition, they ignore the feedback loop concept. Based on
this finding, we propose a conceptual model for the structure of MMDS,
a method for comparing MMDSs and a tentative revised definition of
MMDS. The application to the exemplary models shows some alleged
] is that more di and
A
comparative work are needed.
The Effectiveness of Force Directed Graphs vs.
Causal Loop Diagrams: An experimental study
When it comes to making tough decisions in dynamic environments,
decision makers usually do not make the optimal choices (Moxnes,
2004). In order to help decision makers understand the consequences of
their decisions modelers usually reveal the structure of their models
through Causal Loop Diagrams (CLD). Here I have run a small pilot
experiment comparing an alternative method of model structure, model
behavior visualization called Force Directed Graphs (FDG) in an attempt
to determine which is the more effective aid to decision makers.
Participants in this study were asked to make decisions in a dynamic
system, and were given either a CLD of the underlying model, ora FDG
as an aid. The results of this study were inconclusive as to which was
more effective, but it appeared that FDG users had better strategy, but
were on the whole unable to translate that into optimal decision making.
This paper also discusses changes to be applied to its experimental
design before this study can be run in full.
A System Dynamics Perspective on Insurgency
as a Business Enterprise
A system dynamics model is developed to describe how insurgency
groups pursue funding for their operations and the choices they make in
how they allocate these funds to maintain their operations and advance
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 103
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Curtis Johnson
cjohnso@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1235
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA
Leonard A. Malczynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Mail Stop 0735
Albuquerque NM 87123-1350
USA
George A. Backus
gabacku@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
ad NM 87185-0370
Jennifer Schurer
jschurer@ wustl.edu
Washington University in St Louis
Brown School of Social Work
Campus Box 1196 One Brookings Drive
St Louis MO 63130-4899
USA
Peter S. Hovmand
phovmand@ wustl.edu
Washington University in St Louis
George Warren Brown School of Social Work
One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
Saint Louis MO 63130
USA
Maria Cristina Serrano
mserrano@ unab.edu.co
Universidad Autonoma de Bucaramanga
10300 Golf Course Rd NW Apt 1416
Albuquerque NM 87114
USA
Ricardo Sotaquira
rsotaquira@ gmail.com
Universidad de la Sabana
Facultad de Ingeniera
Chia Cundinamarca
Colombia
their causes. The model illustrates that the insurgent groups, under
survival pressure, will seek necessary resources to continue their
operations by any means necessary regardless of ideology or higher
goals. This self-p1 vation hypothesis is predicated on evidence-based
counter-insurgency research. The model focuses on four primary
activities of the insurgency: force maintenance, public relations,
commission of violent acts, and community outreach. The model shows
how decisions to re-allocate resources among these four activities,
affects the overall financial well-being of the insurgency. Indeed, the
model can be used to determine the pressure points of an insurgency
which may provide insight in how to financially damage such an
organization.
The Role of Proactive Strategic Planning in
Punctuated Organizational Change: Revisiting
Sastry's Model
Sastry's (1997) simulation model of Tushman and Romanelli' 'S (1985)
classic theory of or il change
underlying causal theory and yielded several important ae
regarding executive management's role in monitoring the strategic fit
with the environment and allowing for a trial period directly after
reorientation. However, Sastry's model focuses exclusively on reactive
strategic reorientations triggered by sustained poor performance due to
- environment leaving no room for proactive
strategic shifts in response to anticipated events. The extremely common
process of strategic planning is geared toward just this type of change;
routine planning attempts to manage uncertainty, anticipate future
demands, and make targeted strategic changes before performance
deficits make radical reorientation necessary. This paper explores the
impact of adding a strategic planning routine to Sastry's model on
organizational performance and change.
The role of System Dynamic Simulations in
Higher Education Management, a Systemic View
Under the assumption that there is a variety of meanings and purposes
behind the use of System Dynamics in higher education management,
this paper compiles a review and a systemic interpretation that will
examine such variety. The Systems thinking research group (GPS), at the
Universidad Autonoma de Bucaramanga, has developed a variety of
projects which main purpose was to use System Dynamics modelling to
support University management. A detailed revision of these projects, as
well as other research documents developed by authors from the
international community interested in this topic, is presented to
104 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Maria Sipowicz
maria sipowicz@ eifer.org
EIFER
Emmy-Noether-Strasse 11
D-76131 Karlsruhe
Germany
Heather Skaza
hjskaza@ hotmail.com
University of Nevada-Las Vegas
Environmental Studies
4504 S Maryland Parkway Box 454030
Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA
Krystyna A. Stave
krystyna.stave@ unlv.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway
Box 454030
Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA
Valerijs Skribans
skriban@ inbox.lv
Riga Technical University
Meza iela 1/7
Riga LV 1048
Latvia
common objectives, ies and learning
experiences. This revision provides the fundamentals that allow the
identification of a variety of uses of System Dynamics in higher
education to create a systemic perspective from which it is possible to
discuss and reflect organizational complexities beyond mere
management strategies and business projections in the University
management field.
The software life cycle spiral model: the dynamic
approach
The process of developement of IT system is a set of activities and
results connected with it, which lead to formation of the system. This
process can be implemented in a variety of different ways. The
abstractions of the course of creating an IT system are known as the
manufacturing process model or software life cycle model. The spiral
model, which is the subject hereof, as well as other existing models, have
been developed on the basis of many years of experience of designers
and programmers. The main goal of the models is indication of the
sequence of steps crucial for the correct realisation of an IT project.
However, they do not encompass the dynamics of the process and
interaction between various factors connected with them, which include:
human, time, economic and quality factors. The following article
attempts to present the spiral model of software life cycle in the dynamic
approach, on example of an ongoing project of a regional energy
planning support system.
A test of the relative effectiveness of using
systems simulations to increase student
understanding of environmental issues
This paper reports on an experimental study testing the relative effect of
using simulation models on systems thinking in a college-level
Introduction to Environmental Science class. The preliminary findings
show mixed results. It is unclear whether this is a result on the systems
simulations used in the interventions or the assessment techniques
employed to study their effectiveness.
Influence Of Labor Migration On Latvia's
Labor Market
This paper shows system dynamic model of labor market and labor
migration in Latvia. The hypothesis of the research is that: labor
migration is determined primarily by the payment level in the countries
under consideration and indicator derived from it - payment difference
in compared countries; also employment level, unemployment level,
number of work places (market capacity) and number of vacant work
places. Secondary factors influencing migration may be costs connected
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 105
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Jill H. Slinger
j.h.slinger@ tbm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5
2628 BX Delft
Netherlands
Sanjay Soni
soni563@ yahoo.com
Jabalpur Engineering College
M. Dolores Soto-Torres
lolasoto@ eco.uva.es
Universidad de Valladolid
Dpto Economia Aplicada
Avenida Valle Esgueva 6
47011 Valladolid Spain
Ramon Fernandez-Lechon
ramonfer@ eco.uva.es
Universidad de Valladolid
Facultad de Ciencias Economicas
Avda Valle Esgueva 6
47011 Valladolid Spain
with labor migration, formal legal barriers of migration and personal
propensity to migrate. Statistics on the Latvia's labor market are not
complete; there is also no common view of experts about determinant
In such circ ing of market with quantitative
methods is problematic. One approach is to simulate indicators and to
estimate their influence on national economy. The model has three parts:
labor force expansion, allocation and migration sub models. Labor force
expansion sub model is based on allocation of population in various
categories during transition to a working age population. Allocation by
level of educational is further used in labor markets analysis, where,
according to the education level, worker groups are formed. Mutual
interaction of groups of workers together with labor migration is
represented in paper. In results is shown model factors sensitivity from
personal propensity to labor migration.
Communicating model insights using interactive
learning environments
Much attention is focused on the rational-style development and
application of System Dynamics models. Even group model building
focuses primarily on the formulation and understanding of the model by
the group members themselves. There is a dearth of attention for
communication of the insights derived during the model building process
to those peripherally or (un)involved in this process. In this study, the
multi-actor context of model implementation is addressed explicitly. The
feedback loop connecting model-derived insights and results back to the
problem owners, the client and stake-holders, is explored. A number of
principles for use in the communication of models are derived and the
role of interactive learning envi as a tool in icating
model results and insights in such a multi-actor context is discussed.
Policy Planning to Improve Quality of Technical
Education - A System dynamic A pproach
In the present paper an attempt has been made to link various elements
that affect the quality of technical education in the present era. A System
Dynamic approach has been used to study the technical education system
and a conclusion is drawn with the help of model by simulating it in
powersim and the model is validated with hypothesis formed.
Dynamics in domestic terrorist organizations
The number of incidents provoked by a domestic terrorist organization
shows an oscillatory though irregular behaviour over time. There are
periods of time where the organization carries out many incidents
whereas during other periods, the activity diminishes or even is null.
This paper attempts to explain the reasons of that behaviour considering
a causal structure that picks up the interrelations between the actions of
the organization and the government of the country where the
organization focus mainly its activities. While the terrorist organization
controls positive feedback loops, the governmental policies implemented
to fight against it are led by negative feedback loops fraught with
106 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Pedro Fernandez Soto
pedro.fernandez.soto@ es.pwc.com
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Paseo de la Castellana 43
28046 Madrid Spain
Krystyna A. Stave
krystyna.stave@ unlv.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway
Box 454030
Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA
Marcia Turner
marciaturner@ nevada.edu
Nevada System of Higher Education
5550 W Flamingo Rd Suite C-1
Las Vegas NV 89103
USA
John Sterman
jsterman@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142
USA
uncertainty. The dynamic emerging from the interrelations between the
positive and the negative feedback loops would explain the evolution of
the number of attacks carried by the organization. In order to check the
strength of the causal structure a simulation exercise is proposed to
characterize the number of incidents of a specific organization during a
concrete temporal horizon. The aim is to check the degree of fit between
the real data and those obtained by simulation, which includes specific
features of the organization to study.
Experimental C omparison of System Dynamics
versus Traditional Facilitation
This paper reports on an experiment comparing the relative effectiveness
of standard group facilitation techniques with system dynamics
facilitation techniques in a real world stakeholder participation process.
The experiment tested the hypothesis that the system dynamics approach
would lead to: (1) better decisions; (2) greater participant focus on
relevant materials; and (3) higher procedural satisfaction. The system
dynamics approach yielded better decisions but lower procedural
satisfaction among participants.
Does formal system dynamics training improve
people's understanding of accumulation?
Prior work shows widespread misunderstanding of the principles of
accumulation (stocks and flows), even among highly educated adults
trained in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics. People
fail to grasp that the quantity of any stock rises (falls) when the inflow
exceeds (is less than) the outflow. Rather, people often use the
correlation heuristic, concluding that a system's output is positively
correlated with its inputs. Here I ask whether formal system dynamics
training is effective in overcoming people's poor understanding of
accumulation. I report an experiment with graduate students at the MIT
Sloan School of Management to assess the impact of an introductory
system dynamics course on their intuitive understanding of
ac ion. I use a pretest: posttest design, where the
treatment consisted of the standard course content. Results show
improvement in overall performance and a reduction in the prevalence of
the correlation heuristic. Even relatively modest exposure to stocks and
flows improves intuitive understanding of these concepts, at least among
these highly educated adults. However, there is still evidence of
correlational reasoning among a minority of students. I suggest
additional experiments to deepen our knowledge of the education and
training required to develop people's intuitive understanding of
accumulation.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 107
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Eric Stiens
estiens@ gmail.com
Washington University in St. Louis
3022A Cherokee Street
St Louis MO 63118
USA
Margaret V. Stringfellow
sapphire@ mitedu
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Dept of Aeronautics and Astronautics
77 Massachusetts Ave 33-407c
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
Meghan M. Dierks
mdierks@ bidme.harvard.edu
Harvard Medical School
Division of Clinical Informatics
330 Brookline Ave W/PA617
Boston MA 02215
Structural Racism and System Dynamics: A
Theory and Methodology for Addressing Racial
Disparities
Understanding how interactions between apparently race-neutral
institutions and policies can produce racial disparities is essential to a
Civil Rights Movement in the United States in the 21st Century. Moving
from a discourse that focuses on intent as the determining factor in
whether racism exists to a discourse that focuses on the existence of
racial disparities and the structures that reproduce them requires a new
language and vocabulary. Conc i and izing effective
interventions that will reduce these disparities requires a new
methodology. System dynamics can play a key role in providing botha
language and a methodology to better und d the c
presence of racial disparities across nearly every indicator of wellbeing.
Most attempts to reduce racial di ities have met with
policy resistance, and modeling work must focus on identifying key
leverage points. In this mostly qualitative work, causal-loop diagrams are
pulled from relevant research and key reference modes are examined for
insights into the structures perpetuating racial hierarchy. A dynamic
hypothesis is proposed that the stock of A frican-A mericans living in
areas of concentrated poverty is one of the key drivers of racial
disparities. Suggestions and opportunities for further modeling and next
steps are also outlined.
Healthcare Industry Incentive Structures
Pressure System Operators to Operate in a
High-risk State
The operation of hospitals in a low-risk state has become more a more
challenging goal to meet as cost-of-care increases have forced hospitals
to find alternative revenue sources. In particular, hospitals have
compensated for increasing costs by expanding their ad hoc patient
referral base and overloading their operation schedules without a
corresponding increase in resources to treat the increased patient load.
Without adequate resources to treat patients, proceduralists respond to
throughput pressure by speeding up the pace of cases, thereby exposing
the patient to greatly increased risk of an adverse event. The subsequent
treatment of adverse events caused increases the cost-of-care as hospitals
Dill related treatment to insurance companies. Recent changes by third-
party payers to the hospital rei: policy have to
address this issue by denying coverage of adverse event treatment. The
policy is examined along with alternative solutions that seek to align the
incentives of insurance companies, hospitals and surgeons in an effort to
decrease the cost of care and encouraging the low-risk operation of
hospitals.
108 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Jiirgen Strohhecker
j.strohhecker@ frankfurt-school.de
Frankfurt School of Finance and Mgt
Sonnemannstrasse 9-11
D-60314 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Dan Sturtevant
dsturtev@ mit.edu
MIT
231 Norfolk Street #6
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
J. Bradley Morrison
bmorriso@ brandeis.edu
Brandeis University
19 Fox Run Road
Bedford MA 01730
USA
Does a Better Understanding of Accumulation
Indeed Predict A Higher Performance in Stock
and Flow Management?
The stock and flow management (SFM) problem is of high relevance for
a broad range of decision makers in society, business and personal
affairs. Although in some areas highly sophisticated models and control
concepts have been developed, the phenomena of excess stock and
are One recent explanation for these observations
is offered by a stream of research, which finds evidence for widespread
and persistent deficits in stock-flow thinking (SFT) capabilities even
among well-educated adults. Building on this explanation, an attempt is
made to test the hypothesis, that the better people understand
accumulation, the higher will be their performance in SFM tasks. The
results ofa small sample pilot study indicate that the hypothesis of a one-
d-effect relationship between SFT and SFM
performance ‘ras to be rejected. Therefore, Ackerman’s PPIK theory is
introduced and used to formulate an elaborate causal model, which could
be tested in future research.
America Disrupted: Dynamics of the Technical
Capability Crisis
This study investigates the cause of a nearly twenty-five year decline in
the percentage of U.S. born undergraduates earning engineering degrees.
This dramatic decline has occurred despite incredibly high pay and low
unemployment among engineers. On the surface this situation appears to
violate the laws of supply and demand. A system dynamics model was
created to represent the institutional forces and feedback loops present in
the real-world system. This model internally represents the economic
forces goveming the choice to pursue science, technology, engineering,
and matt ics (STEM) edi di hing features of
quantitative knowledge that constrain its transmission, and factors
determining the quality of STEM education in our schools. It is shown
that high industry pay for STEM workers and low pay for STEM
teachers can cause long-term self perpetuating labor shortages. The fact
that mathematics performance has strong dependencies on past-
knowledge exacerbates the situation. Policy proposals are simulated to
test their ability to positively influence the system. The model is shown
to exhibit tipping point behavior. Small reforms will have negligible
impact while significant reforms could make the system move into a
fundamentally better pattern of behavior, but only after considerable
delays.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 109
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Athor Subroto
athor.subroto@ ui.ac.id
University of Indonesia
Department of Management Science
Enzo Bivona
enzo.bivona@ unipa.it
University of Palermo
Via Mazzini 59
90139 Palermo
Ttaly
Finn Olav Sveen
finn.olav.sveen@ gmail.com
University of Agder
Postsvingen 5A
3031 Drammen
Norway
Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegi@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia
Spain
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ uia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway
Finn Olav Sveen
finn.olay.sveen@ gmail.com
University of Agder
Postsvingen 5A
3031 Drammen Norway
Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegi@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia Spain
Supporting Small Medium Enterprises planning
through the use of a step-by-step System
Dynamics model building process
This paper aims to support small medium enterprises (SMEs) in business
planning through the use of system dynamics models. In particular, it has
been hypothesized that through the use of a step-by-step system
dynamics model building process SMEs’ entrepreneurs can better
d d the net of c d-effect relationships underlying company
financial and non-financial results. Such an approach also enables
decision makers to improve their understanding about the figures
portrayed in a balance sheet. In order to reach such a goal, this study has
been carried out through the use of a case-study. The small company
investigated is a leather handcraft operating in Indonesia. The paper
makes explicit main feedback mechanisms underlying company
customer base dynamics adoption process, production and inventory
management policies, human resource management practice and
machineries production capacity acquisition policy.
Using C onceptual System Dynamics Simulation
Models to Initiate Exploration of and Discussion
about Incident Reporting Systems
Ongoing research collaboration between Tecnun, University of A gder,
Gjovik University College and mnemonic AS (a Managed Security
Services provider), investigates how to improve the operation of
information security incident reporting systems. A large part of the
research effort is collaborative workshops and a significant issue is how
to engage the participants in an objective discussion. We have
successfully employed small System Dynamics computer simulation
models for this purpose. These models leave out many details and make
a number of assumptions that are often wrong. However, that is precisely
why they work so well. When experts are confronted with a “wrong”
model of a system they know very well, they seem to have an urge to
immediately correct the modeler, thus initiating discussion. Used
correctly, these small conceptual models can “kick start” a collaborative
modeling workshop, engaging the participants and immediately
extracting useful information. This paper presents one such model and
our experiences with using it.
The Role of Incident Reporting in Reducing
Information Security Risks
This paper examines the role of information security incident reporting
systems in the wider context of an information security management
system. This work is based on four group model building workshops
with participants from mnemonic AS, a Norwegian Managed Security
Services Provider. We found that incident reporting is a crucial
component in creating information security awareness among
110 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ uia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad Norway
Mats G. Svensson
mats.svensson@ lucsus.lu.se
Lund University
Centre for Sustainability Studies
PO Box 170
S-22100 Lund
Sweden
Hitesh Soneji
hitesh@ sonejifamily.org
Lund University
PO Box 170
SE-221 00 Lund
Sweden
Harald Sverdrup
harald.sverdrup@ chemeng,lth.se
Lund University
Dept of Chemical Engineering Box 124
221 00 Lund
Sweden
Deniz Koca
deniz.koca@ chemeng.lth.se
Lund University
Applied Systems Analysis Group
Box 124 SE-221 00
Lund
Sweden
Hordur V. Haraldsson
hordur.haraldsson@ naturvardsverket.se
Swedish Environmental Protection
Naturvardsverket.
10648 Stockholm
Sweden
Karl Henrik Robért
Karl-Henrik Robert@ thenaturalstep.org
Blekinge Institute of Technology
Karlskrona
Sweden
information system users. Our research indicates that increasing incident
reporting rates does not necessarily mean poor security, but rather that
the organisation is becoming more security aware, and, arguably, less
exposed to information security risks. However, in an organisation with
poor awareness, it is possible that incident reporting rates and risk
increases simultaneously. Analogous results are known about industrial
safety reporting systems and risk of organisational accidents.
Sustainability and System dynamics: some case
studies
While Being Green may be in fashion, sustainability has yet to gain such
traction. Mi ll are prevailing in many
sectors and across ee ranging disciplines. The climate change threat is
just one component of this challenge, together with sustaining global
health and development without jeopardising intergenerational equity.
This paper scrutinizes the concept of sustainability with specific focus on
understanding its system boundary conditions. Case studies are presented
to illustrate the value of a system dynamics view in formulating
sustainability strategies. Each of the cases presented, from metals to
fertilizers and ICT to forestry, offer “unique challenges, yet share
common threads: finite non- losses in
resource loops, and an economic system incapable of managing them
sustainably. Each study reinforces the need for better understanding of
integrated systems for adaptive management, societal learning, and
policies to manage transitions towards a more sustainable society.
On root-causes of unsustainability: phosphate
consumption investigated using systems analysis
and dynamic assessment modelling
The roots of unsustainability on the highest systems level, can only be
determined by looking at the system from a birds perspective. We argue
that real sustainability must be able to span at least 20,000 years to the
inception of the next ice age. We can show that the population size and
the consumption rate per person are both at work to let us collectively
outpace the supply rate of the planet. So far, humans have addressed end
of pipe solution like pollution cleanup, progressed to cleaner production
and efficient resource use. The next level is also being studied and
initiated, less unsustainable consumption rates, better efficiencies and
closing of cycles. However, these are still at the systems level below the
real root causes. The models predict that the available minable resources
will finally run out 1300 years from now. After that only phosphorus
gained from agricultural capture will be available. For scenarios leading
to populations in the size range of 1-2 billion people on earth, the general
supply situation will be much improved. The shortage of phosphorus
may have food shortage as a result, leading to predicted significant social
stresses, potentially leading to conflict. Key words, sustainable
reserves, ion, social
sustainability.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 111
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Mihaela Tabacaru
mihaela.tabacaru@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Gyldenprisveien 18 - 2
5056 Bergen
Norway
Birgit Kopainsky
birgit.kopainsky@ flury-giuliani.ch
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
PO Box 7800
N-5020 Bergen
Norway
Agata Sawicka
agata.sawicka@ npt.no
University of Agder
Grooseveien 36
NO-4876 Grimstad
Norway
Krystyna A. Stave
laystyna.stave@ unlv.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway
Box 454030
Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA
Burcu Tan
burcu.tan@ phd.mccombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas at Austin
McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Sta B6000
Austin TX 78712-0201 USA
Edward G. Anderson
edward.anderson@ mecombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas
McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Station B6500
Austin TX 78712 USA
James Dyer
Jim.Dyer@ mccombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas
McCombs Business School
1 University STA B6000
Austin TX 78712-0201 USA
Geoffrey Parker
gparker@ tulane.edu
Tulane University
Entergy Tulane Energy Institute
9 McAlister Dr
New Orleans LA 70118 USA
How can we assess whether our simulation
models improve the system understanding for
the ones interacting with them?
Most of the system dynamics studies that evaluate decision making in
complex dynamic task focus on the evaluation of performance over
repeated trials and on the effectiveness of different instructional
strategies as far as performance is concerned. Especially when a strategy
seems to yield promising results in terms of performance, it becomes
essential to know whether improved performance is due to improved
system understanding, i.e. to correct rules or due to other rea-sons such
as trial and error. This paper contributes to the emerging literature in
system dynamics about assessing system understanding. Based on the
way experts make decisions we develop a step by step guide to evaluate
how the understanding of the system develops in the course of subjects
interacting with the system through a simulation model. We apply our
guide to the rein-deer management task and analyze data from previous
experiments with the task. This applica-tion provides important insights
for the further development of the questionnaires that are ap-plied for
assessing understanding.
Using Binomial Decision Trees and Real Options
Theory to Evaluate System Dynamics Models of
Risky Projects
Many important risky projects are characterized by stochastic processes
embedded in non-linear, feedback structures with delays. System
dynamics models may be used to estimate the cash flow resulting from
these projects. If these projects include managerial flexibility (real
options), a correct financial evaluation of these cash flow requires the
use of real options methodology. We adapt prior work on real options
valuation in the decision analysis literature to develop a methodology
that avoids the need to estimate a risk-adjusted discount rate for the
project with options. We illustrate this approach with a model drawn
from the wind power industry, which is characterized by numerous
uncertainties and high managerial flexibility. We conclude with a
discussion comparing this methodology to the previous methods and
describe under what conditions each one might be a more appropriate
choice.
112 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Masoud Tavazoei
masood_tavazoei@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Tran
Shirin Vakilian
shirin_vakilian1 988@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Iran
Javaneh Mohseni
javaneh_mhi@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Iran
Amin Aghajani
a_aghajooni@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Avenue
Tehran
Iran
Timothy R. B. Taylor
xftu@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
Zachry Department of Civil Engineering
709E CE/TTI Tower
College Station TX 77843-3136
USA
David N. Ford
davidford@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
Dept Civil Engineering Mailstop 3136
College Station TX 77843-3136
USA
Shari Y von-Lewis
syvon-lewis@ ocean.tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
Department of Oceanography
College Station TX 77843-3146
USA
Eric Lindquist
Texas A&M
George Bush Sch of Govt & Pub Policy
Inst for Science Tech & Pub Policy
College Station TX 77843-3136
USA
Investigation of depression among university
students: A Case Study of Sharif University of
Technology
Lately, students' depression has become a great concem among
prominent universities. Increase in severe psychological problems
(Kitzrow, 2003) has compelled these universities to think of an effective
policy to improve the deteriorating conditions. Inspecting the students'
lifestyle in eminent universities such as M.I.T, Michigan, Cambridge and
Sharif University of Technology (which is considered as the best
university in Iran and has found international fame) manifested
noticeable similarities in causes of students' depression among aforesaid
universities. In this paper, we have investigated the students' lifestyle at
Sharif University of Technology as a case study, using a System
Dynamics approach. Also, depression as a vague and intuitive concept is
defined clearly in terms of explicit variables using "Alderfer's ERG
Theory" and the dynamic behavior of the students, is carefully modeled
within last 20 years. At the end we have come to conclusion that teachers
can play a significant role in improving the conditions by choosing the
apt evaluation policy.
Science, engineering, and technology in the
policy process for natural systems
Natural systems and society share a symbiotic relationship with each
affecting the health and welfare of the other. More importantly, society’s
impacts on natural systems can lead to negative side effects on society
such as increased respiratory illness from air pollution, contaminated
drinking water from industrial runoff, and increased skin cancer risk
from stratospheric ozone depletion. Mitigating the risks of these side
effects often requires the development and implementation of public
policy. But policy makers may have a limited understanding of complex
natural and societal systems and their interactions. Scientists and
engineers can help policy makers by offering their knowledge of these
systems as well as technological solutions to mitigate the impacts of
societal behavior. However, the expertise of scientists and engineers may
not be fully utilized by policy makers for many reasons including
scientists and engineers inability to provide the appropriate knowledge,
scientists and engineers inability to effectively communicate with policy
makers, or policy makers inability to incorporate scientific and
engineering knowledge into policy development. The current work
develops improved understanding of the interaction of scientists,
engineers, and policy makers in the policy process for natural systems.
This understanding is developed by constructing, testing, and analyzing a
system dynamics model of stratospheric ozone depletion.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 113
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Pard Teekasap
art_eecu@ yahoo.com
Southem New Hampshire University
95 W Clarke St #27
Manchester NH 03104
USA
Nasim Tehrani
nasim.tehrani@ gmail.com
Tehran University
Kargar St
Tehran
Iran
Hamed Shakouri
hshakouri@ gmail.com
Tehran University
Research Institute for Energy Mgt
No 13 Gods Street Enghelab Ave
Tehran
Iran
Mohammad Hossein Taheri
taheri@ teyf.ir
Tehran University
Kargar Shomali St
PO Box 14395-515
Tehran
Tran
Warren W. Tignor
wtignor@ ieee.org
SAIC
472 Comwall Court
Sevema Park MD 21146
Kostas Triantis
triantis@ viedu
Virginia Tech
Grado Dept of Industrial Engineering
7054 Haycock Road
Falls Church VA 22043-2311
Cluster Formation and G overnment Policy:
System Dynamics A pproach
This paper studies the effect of particular government policies on a
cluster formation using a system dynamics modeling approach. A
conceptual cluster dynamic model includes the interaction of the cluster
with resources, workers, jobs, unemployment, salary, market demand,
and production capacity. The considered government policies are raising
the cluster’s attractiveness, lowering the failure rate of new firms and
enlarging the amount of resources. The results show that the cluster will
be developed faster and grown larger if the cluster is attractive and/or
when the failure rate of new firms is low. Increase in resources also
enlarges the cluster but it takes a longer time to develop.
A simple model to study the MNP impact on
dynamic behavior of a two-competitor mobile
market: Stability versus Oscillations
The mobile market in Iran is experimenting a transition period from
monopoly by the incumbent service provider to a relatively competitive
market by introducing the third operator. This paper describes the result
of a research conceming the dynamisms of helping the chum in the
mobile network by the Number Portability service. The feature adds to
the attractiveness of the whole market and potentially stimulates the
players to increase their individual attractiveness by either increasing
their service quality or reducing prices or both. This dynamism is
illustrated by a causal diagram, and a flow diagram has been constructed.
The simple proposed model suffices to explore the consequences of
different scenarios provided by the policy makers, and helps developing
suitable policies to launch this new service. It is shown that improper
settings for the service, including the costs, the time to port and the
flexibility of porting can cause undamped oscillations in the system.
Agile Project Management
Agile Project Management reviews literature of the agile software
development domain relevant to System Dynamics.
Systems Engineering: Have we lost our
Competitive Edge? A Consideration of the
Dynamics of Systems Engineering Projects
Recent media reports include several large systems engineering failures.
These failures are especially alarming given that they span different
114 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Hazhir Rahmandad
hazhir@ vtedu
Virginia Tech
Norther Virginia Center Rm 430
7054 Haycock Road
Falls Church VA 22043
Warren Vaneman
wvaneman@ verizon.net
Virginia Tech
7054 Haycock Road
Falls Church VA 22043
USA
Fiona Penlope Tulinayo
F.Tulinayo@ science.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Faculty of Science
Heyendaalseweg 135
6525 AJ Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Andreas Gro8ler
agroe@ gmx.de
Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Postbus 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Stijn Hoppenbrouwers
stijnh@ cs.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Computer Science Dept - Fac of Science
Heijendaalseweg 135 PO Box 9020
6500 GL Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Patrick van Bommel
pvb@ cs.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Faculty of Science
Heijendaalseweg 135 PO Box 9020
6525 GL Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Mauricio Uriona Maldonado
mauricio.uriona@ gmail.com
Federal University of Santa Catarina
Rua JP Duarte Silva 094 Apt 405
CEP 88037-000 Florianopolis SC
Brazil
sectors (i.e., shipbuilding and space systems), and are not isolated to one
firm. Therefore we need to ask: Have we lost our systems engineering
competitive edge? What can the systems engineering discipline do to
correct the apparent discrepancies that appear to be at the root cause of
these failures? A sy ic framework that current system
engineering practices and integrates different factors that impact its
performance into a unified view is not currently available. We introduce
some of the key concepts of this integrative framework by borrowing
from the management and system dynamics literature. This framework
facilitates the modeling of the systems engineering process for the
purpose of und and ially improving its
performance. Our framework brings together the basic mechanics (e.g.,
task completion, testing, scheduling, and costing) and the human
elements (e.g., skills, incentives, and employee tumover) inherent in
system engineering projects. We highlight major feedback processes
crossing multiple stages of the process and leading to cost and budget
overruns. We demonstrate how this framework can organize and connect
multiple sources of failure in the systems engineering process.
Complementing System Dynamics with O bject-
Role Modeling
In this paper we use Object-Role Modeling (ORM) to complement
System Dynamics (SD). The art of SD modeling lies in discovering and
representing feedback processes and other elements that determine the
dynamics of the system. However, SD shows a lack of instruments for
discovering and expressing precise, language-based concepts in domains.
At the same time, the field of conceptual modeling has long since
focused on deriving models from natural expressions. We therefore tum.
to ORM as a prime example to integrate a strong natural language based
conceptual modeling approach into the creation of SD models. ORM isa
formal fact- oriented approach for modeling information at a conceptual
level. In this study we investigate the ee building blocks of these
methods using of the two
methods helps us to better understand thelr underlying concepts and their
differences in update behavior due to state and decision changes. We use
SD to capture the dynamic, and ORM to capture the static aspect of a
system.
Modeling Knowledge Reuse in Technical
Support Operations
There is an increasing concem on the part of corporate sector of the
importance to harness knowledge as their most valuable resource. The
purpose of this work is to identify the effects of knowledge reuse in
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 115
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Adriano Coser
coser@ ege.ufsc.br
Federal University of Santa Catarina
Bairro Trindade
Florianopolis SC CEP 88040-970
Brazil
Gregorio Varvakis
grego@ deps.ufsc.br
Federal University of Santa Catarina
Bairro Trindade
Florianopolis SC CEP 88040-970
Brazil
Marjan van den Belt
vandenBeltM@ landcareresearch.co.nz
New Zealand Centre for Ecological Econ
c/ Landcare Research
Private Bag 11-052
Palmerston North 4442
New Zealand
Kim van Oorschot
ke.v.oorschot@ tue.nl
Eindhoven University of Technology
PO Box 513, Pav. M0.06, 5600 MB
Eindhoven
The Netherlands
Kishore Sengupta
kishore. sengupta@ insead.edu
INSEAD
Europe Campus
Boulevard de Constance
77305 Fontainebleau
France
Luk van Wassenhove
INSEAD
Europe Campus
Boulevard de Constance
77305 Fontainebleau
France
service systems. In order to achieve this, a system dynamics model of a
software-house's technical support service in Brazil is developed,
emphasizing on the use of knowledge bases and its effects over the
service system. It concludes that i) the model aids the designer in
evaluating several aspects of the system as well as its performance,
including the effects of knowledge reuse and ii) based on the simulation
results, knowledge management enhances service system performance.
Multi-scale Integrated Modelling for Sustainable
Adaptive Systems
This paper presents a theoretical expansion of the 3-step modelling
approach (Costanza & Ruth, 1998), which proposes an incremental
progress from “scoping “models to “research” and “management”
models. The trade off for increased detail and resolution in model
building is a decrease in transparency. This paper aims to provide a
context for Mediated Modelling (which happens at the “scoping” level)
and similar system dynamics based participatory modelling approaches,
as a missing link toward Adaptive Management. An emphasis is placed
on reflective capacity among relevant stakeholders to evaluate the
behaviour of systems at various scales and integrated dimensions. A
theoretical Multi-Scale Integrated Modelling for Sustainable Adaptive
Systems (MIMSAS) framework is discussed as a foundation for three, 6-
year research programmes on (1) urban systems, (2) energy systems and
(3) watershed and coastal ecosystem services.
Dynamics of Agile Software Development
Software projects have traditionally been problematic in terms of quality,
cost and time. Researchers and practitioners have focused on agile
software development as an alternative to overcome these problems.
Agile methods employ iterative development cycles (typically 20
working-days), interspersed by user feedback. The key to agile projects
is the sense of urgency created by the need to deliver at regular intervals.
This paper examines this construct, i.e., schedule pressure. We
investigate the relationship between the level of agility (length of the
iterative cycle) and project outcomes. We argue that project outcomes
may suffer either from a team being too inactive, e.g., in sequential or
low levels of agility, or from a team being over-active over too long, a
situation likely to occur in high levels of agility. We hypothesize that
moderate levels of agility are likely to result in the best project
outcomes. We test our hypothesis through simulation, and find a U-
shaped pattern: performance is better when iteration lengths are 50
working-days, as opposed to 20 working-day cycles widely used in
practice. Our analysis provides both theoretical insights into the
dynamics of agile software development and practical suggestions for
managing these projects.
116 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Bob Walrave
b.walrave@ tue.nl
Eindhoven University of Technology
Den Dolech 2
PO Box 513 Pav M 16
5600 MB Eindhoven
The Netherlands
Kim van Oorschot
ke.v.oorschot@ tue.nl
Eindhoven University of Technology
PO Box 513, Pav. M0.06, 5600 MB
Eindhoven
The Netherlands
Georges Romme
a.g.lromme@ tue.nl
Eindhoven University of Technology
Department of IE & IS
PO Box 513
5600 MB Eindhoven
The Netherlands
Hsiao-Lin Wang
whl1435@ hotmail.com
Chaoyang University of Technology
Department of Landscape Architecture
PO Box 30-1177
Taichung 40760
Taiwan
Yufeng Ho
hyfarch@ ms32.hinet.net
Chaoyang University of Technology
PO Box 30-117
Taichung 407
Taiwan
Yi-Yen Wu
yiyenwu@ gmail.com
Chaoyang University of Technology
168 Jifong E Rd
Wufong Township
Taiwan
The rise and fall of product innovation strategy:
a simulation model
The benefits of a strategically balanced product portfolio, as a key driver
of long-term business success, are well documented. In this respect,
many firms have been unable to achieve a balanced product portfolio.
An important cause is the failure to develop dynamic capabilities, that is,
the capabilities to reconfigure intemal and external competences to
address dynamic business envi In times of env
instability and financial decay, top managers are facing difficulties in
adapting their strategy to changes in market and competitive conditions.
Firms can thus become seriously trapped in a reinforcing negative loop,
where the changing environment is counteracted with inadequate
strategic actions, which in tur results in further decreasing financial
performance. This so-called suppression mechanism serves to explain
why so many firms fail at building dynamic capabilities. We draw on
system dynamics modeling to build and simulate a model of the causes,
consequences, and potential solutions of the suppression mechanism.
This model is derived from the literature on dynamic capability and,
more broadly, strategy and innovation studies. The main contribution of
this paper to the literature on dynamic capabilities is the definition and
codification of the suppression mechanism.
A Dynamic Simulation Analysis of Urban
Ecotourism in Y angmingshan National Park and
Taipei City
The concept of ecotourism has been promoted by the public in decades,
and it is expected to push local development forward while conserves the
ecological resources. However, the practical process is full of confliction
and c diction, and makes the devel of ecotourism have its
argument. Considering the concept of urban ecotourism is still obscure,
this study introduces the method of Fuzzy number construction, to
construct the index of urban ecotourism. Y angmingshan National Park
and Taipei city are applied to examine the relationship between both of
them through system dynamic method. The result reveals that the
ecotourism destination has not destructed obviously while the tourists
have been increasing in the early period. But if the policy of recreation
carrying capacity has not been built up, the biodiversity will decay soon
while the tourists keep on growing. In addition, the number of urban
tourists is also increasing while urban ecotourism has been ripe, and that
will result more carbon dioxide emissive while economy vigorous. The
ecological green lands could reduce the speed of carbon dioxide
emission. It is clear that urban ecotourism may provide an alternative
choice of urban tourism, and correspond to the direction of ecological
city. Keyword: Urban Ecotourism, Fuzzy number construction, System
Dynamic, Y angmingshan National Park.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 117
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Wei Yang Wang
wyang@ cc.kuas.edu. tw
National Kaohsiung Univ of Applied Sci
415 Chien-Kung Road
807 Kaohsiung
Taiwan
Ya-tsai Tseng
yttseng@ thu.edu.tw
Tunghai University
Dept of Business Administration
407 Taichung
Taiwan
Wei-Tsong Wang
‘wtwang@ mail.ncku.edu.tw
National Cheng Kung University
Industrial and Information Mgt Dept
1 University Road
Tainan 701
Taiwan
Chun-Chieh Wang
judaswa@ gmail.com
National Cheng Kung University
No 1 University Rd Tainan City
Insitute of Information Management
Taiwan ROC
Wenxin Wang
anclino@126,com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
1 Guiyuntang Nanjing
na
Yichun Wang
824254707@ qq.com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
Nanjing
China
Yikang Li
525218205@ qq.com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
Nanjing
China
A SD-Based Reflective Strategy Development
Process
This paper aims to support growth management for firms that have no
stable growth logic. Based on Schns reflective management perspective
(Schn, 1983), we propose an iterative system dynamics-based reflective
strategy development process to facilitate managers to organize and
develop firm growth logic. Different from typical system dynamics
modeling which is based on existing dynamic structures, in this paper, an
iterative system dynamics modeling process is designed to develop
models that evolve with managers ideal designs towards the
implementation of expected growth pattems. An action science research
is conducted with a case to illustrate the iterative SD model-based
growth management process. How the case under discussion enhanced
its understanding of the confronted growth problem and developed its
growth logic to guide the formulation of relevant growth strategies are
clearly described.
A Dynamic Model Of Teacher's Adoption Of E-
learning System By Integration Of Environment
Variables and Teacher Characteristics
In this study we develop a system dynamics model of teachers adoption
of e-learning system. We identify that environment variables and
teachers individual characteristics are the two main factors affecting
teachers adoption. Consequently we integrate well-known technology
acceptance model into our dynamic model. This study also proposes
three policies to enhance teachers adoption. Each policy will be analyzed
individually, and policy comparison will also be performed.
Exercises: The test for the Needham Puzzle
Solutions via Systems thinking
China is a world-renowned ancient civilization, but why was capitalism
and modem science originated in W estem Europe rather than in China?
We studied the commodity economy and natural economic development,
as well as the impact of science and technology, culture (mainly about
Confucian thought), and bureaucracy. Then we made the model of the
situation of the Song Dynasty and work out the productivity curve of the
Chinese feudal dynasty. A fter the process of our study, we learn that the
consolidated centralized feudal dynasties are able to control the whole
country, but its over-centralization has already decided that every
dynasty is bound to eclipse. During the continuous wars, the protection
and development of the productivity seems to be impractical, and so
does the capitalism-it can not attain the suitable environment it lives by.
118 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Wenxin Wang
anclino@ 126.com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
1 Guiyuntang Nanjing China
Maoyan Wan
525848324@ qq.com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
Nanjing China
Yikang Li
525218205@ qg.com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
Nanjing China
Yichun Wang
824254707@ qq.com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
Nanjing China
Lei Zhang
anclino3@ 126.com
High School Affiliated To Nanjing Norm
37 Chahaer Road
Nanjing China
Stephen W arhoe
s.warhoe@ gmail.com
Washington State Dept of Transport.
928 Cherry Avenue NE
Bainbridge Island WA 98110
USA
Elise A. Weaver
eweaver@ humrro.org
Human Resources Research Organization
5407 36th St N
Arlington VA 22207-1388
USA
Exercises: The Analog Prediction of the
Discharge Process of the Barrier Lake at
Tangjiashang
14:28 on May 12, Tangjiashang Mountain experienced a terrible crack in
the Wenchuan earthquake. A ‘barrier lake’ was formed. The water level
has been rising rapidly. Experts of the Ministry of Water Conservancy
planned to take advantage of the artificial drainage and form a new
watercourse. But we did not know if the water can be ensured to drain at
a higher speed than the intake, otherwise the dam will collapse.
Moreover, when the flow accumulates to an uncontrollable level rapidly,
it may also lead to a calamity of collapse and flood. For such a
complicated, dynamic, developing and volatile task, we can consider a
system thinking method to try to answer these two questions. We studied
water storage capacity, rainwater convergence, discharge flow, water
level, and water erosion. Then we set the starting point of time for May
26 and mun the model. We can draw the conclusion by modeling that the
method of eroding earth by water is applicable.
The Effects of Changed Work on Original Scope
and Rework Using System Thinking
Discreetly identifying the resulting causal effects of change in
construction have been a topic of discussion and debate for several years,
especially those changes that disrupt contractor productivity. Managing
projects consists of a complex and integrated array of decisions, actions,
and communications necessary to complete projects successfully. A
project is a system requiring fully functioni and d
tools and resources, and when any of these aspects are not working
efficiently, problems can and do occur. The purpose of this paper is to
discuss the possibility of identifying and quantifying the synergistic
effects of changes on project performance, and the cause and effect
relationships that are created when change is introduced prior, during
and after work has been executed.
The Role of Influence Operations in a
Counterinsurgency Battle
The aim of this paper is to extend a recent "war of attrition" model for
counteri (Kress & Szechtman, 2008) to include the impact on
war of the use of influence operations for popular support and defections
from the insurgency. The model has the following five sectors: (1)
Competitive Contagion for Popular Support; (2) Recruitment and
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 AlbuquerqueUSA 119
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Christian W eitert
cweitert@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
University of Mannheim
Schloss Industrieseminar
68131 Mannheim
Germany
Peter M. Milling
pmilling@ bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Schwarzwaldstr 103
D-68163 Mannheim
Germany
Chris A. White
whitec@ alcatel-lucent.com
Alcatel-Lucent Bell Labs
Chief Scientists Office
600 Mountain A venue Room 2B-417
Mumay Hill NJ 07974
USA
Defections; (3) Quality of Intelligence; (4) War of Attrition; and (5)
Collateral Damage. Two messaging policies were compared, but the
results of such comparisons will depend heavily on model
parameterization and the formulation of effect functions. Still, a model
such as this one can be used in principle to inform policy development
by making assumptions transparent and by clarifying causal links. For
instance, popular support messaging can reduce the effectiveness of
insurgent fighters and their ability to recruit. Alternatively, defection
messaging can help to recruit defectors and glean intelligence for
targeting that could limit civilian casualties and reduce insurgent
recruitment, thus bringing the war to an earlier close. This effort was
completed, in part, for the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory at
Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (Contract No. FA8650-04-D-6405 TO
25 and TO 33).
Radical innovations from a dynamic capabilities
point of view - A Hybrid-Modeling A pproach to
Generate Pseudo-Empirical Data
Sustained competitive advantage is a major issue in the field of
management research. A growing number of scholars utilize the
Dynamic Capabilities View as a reason for over average performance
and adaptability of a firm, especially to radical innovations that threaten
a firm’s survival. Due to the abstract character of the concept, the nature
and impact of dynamic capabilities is still vague and empirical evidence
is rare, This paper presents a formal simulation model that builds on
previous work on the acc ion of dynamic bilities to explore
the micro foundations of the concept. To generate pseudo empirical data,
a mixed agent based and system dynamics modeling approach is devel-
oped. Judging preliminary results further development of the method
promises to be fruitful to und d of the micro foundations of
dynamic capabilities.
The Simulation of Idea Propagation in
Organizations
The healthy exchange of ideas within an organization leads to faster
problem solving, mitigates short and long term risk, and opens the
possibility for disruptive technological change. We introduce a new tool
(GY RUS) for the simulation and optimization of idea within
an organization. This tool treats the organizational topology, internal
processes, and implements an individual knowledge model to examine
idea ion. The topology both the formal and informal
networks of idea within an i The
include all activities resulting in the exchange or introduction of ideas to
the organization. The knowledge model concems how individuals store
and propagate ideas. We apply this tool to a simple organizational
topology to understand the propagation characteristics of ideas and the
coupling of ideas between entities in the structure.
120 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
J. Chris White
jewhite@ viasimcorp.com
viaSim
519 Interstate 30 #247
Rockwall TX 75087
Margaret Rush
mlr5u@ virginia.edu
University of Virginia
Walter Schaffer
SchaffeW@ od.nih.gov
National Institutes of Health
Johannes Wiik
University of Bergen
Stromgaten 32
5008 Bergen
Norway
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ uia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway
Pal I. Davidsen
pal.davidsen@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6 7th Floor
5020 Bergen
Norway
Klaus-Peter Kossakowski
kpk@ sei.cmu.edu
Software Engineering Institute Europe
Ander Welle 4
60322 Frankfurt
Germany
Workforce Modeling for the National Institutes
of Health (NIH)
The National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the research community has
been concemed for decades about the increasing periods of training and
the rate of entry of new investigators into its pool of funded Principal
Investigators (PIs). Since 1970, newly trained investigators have
experienced longer periods of training prior to application for NIH
research grant support. Longer periods of training are reflected in the
average age at which investigators receive their first independent
research grant, which has increased from 34.3 to 42.4 over the period
from 1970 to 2006. Because of the concem about sustaining the
enterprise and assuring a continuing supply of new investigators, the
NIH launched a collaboration with viaSim to model the biomedical PI
workforce and to estimate the rate of replenishment necessary to balance
the age of the entire pool and to test policies that could be employed to
encourage reductions in the duration of training. This paper provides an
overview of the model developed for the project, as well as some initial
simulations of policies related to the duration of training and entry of
new investigators. The final section addresses how the NIH-specific
model could be applied to the national STEM workforce.
Persistent Instabilities in the High-priority
Incident Workload of CSIRTs
Since their inception Computer Security Incident Response Teams
(CSIRTs) have been afflicted by chronic problems concerning workload,
quality of service, and ing their i We have
with one of the oldest CSIRTs to model the most challenging i issues.
Low-priority and high-priority incident response cause distinct problems.
Ina previous paper we dealt with the impact of the exponential growth
of low-priority incidents on the CSIRT workload. In this paper we deal
with high-priority incident response and its impact on the CSIRT
workload and quality of service. One observes long-term instabilities in
workload and QoS and, ominously, oscillatory decreasing recognition of
the CSIRT by its i . An improved c of the
service level provided by the CSIRT is the most effective policy to
mitigate long-term instability in the workload and quality of service.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 121
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Johannes Wiik
University of Bergen
Stromgaten 32
5008 Bergen
Norway
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ uia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway
Pal I. Davidsen
pal.davidsen@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6 7th Floor
5020 Bergen
Norway
Klaus-Peter Kossakowski
kpk@ sei.cmu.edu
Software Engineering Institute Europe
Ander Welle 4
60322 Frankfurt
Germany
Johannes Wiik
University of Bergen
Stromgaten 32
5008 Bergen
Norway
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ uia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway
Pal I. Davidsen
pal.davidsen@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6 7th Floor
5020 Bergen
Norway
Klaus-Peter Kossakowski
kpk@ sei.cmu.edu
Software Engineering Institute Europe
Ander Welle 4
60322 Frankfurt
Germany
Chronic Workload Problems in CSIRTs
Since their inception Computer Security Incident Response Teams
(CSIRTs) have been afflicted by chronic problems conceming workload,
quality of service, and sustaining their constituency. We have cooperated
with one of the oldest CSIRTs to model the most challenging issues.
Low-priority and high-priority incident response cause distinct problems.
Low-priority reports grow exponentially, which overwhelms the limited
CISRT resources. For high-priority incident response, one observes
long-term instabilities in workload and QoS and, ominously, oscillatory
decreasing recognition of the CSIRT by its constituency. In this paper
we focus on low-priority incident response, leaving high-priority
response for two companion papers. For low-priority response, the
CSIRT tends to handle the workload by adjusting the productivity of
manually handled incidents, a futile task owing to exponential growth in
incidents. A more fund solution is d incident response,
but its implementation requires careful planning of timing and resources.
Preserving a balanced CSIRT constituency
Since their inception Computer Security Incident Response Teams
(CSIRTs) have been afflicted by chronic problems conceming workload,
QoS and sustaining their constituency. We have cooperated with one of
the oldest CSIRTs to model the most challenging issues. Low- and high-
priority incident response cause different problems. In companion papers
we dealt with the impact of the exponential growth of low-priority
incidents on the CSIRT workload and the effect of high-priority incident
response on the CSIRT workload and QoS. Here, we focus on a severe
consequence of instabilities in high-priority incident response: problems
to retain the internal constituency, i.e, the customer base or community
who by its funding enable the existence of the CSIRT. Such an external
i (people and organizations outside the internal constituency)
that are provided with limited services, is unavoidable and even
desirable, since security incidents often involve sites outside the intemal
constituency. But our model indicates that the instabilities in high-
priority incident reporting create an imbalance that -- if it persists --
could threaten the very existence of the CSIRT. Our model suggests that
a management strategy that reduces the tumover of the most frequent
reporters is much better than any attempt to attract a higher number of
frequent reporters.
122 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Ines Winz
i,winz@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
24/457 Swanson Rd Ranui
Auckland 0612
New Zealand
Gary Brierley
gbrierley@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
School of Geography
Private Bag 92019
Auckland
New Zealand
Ines Winz
i.winz@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
24/457 Swanson Rd Ranui
Auckland 0612
New Zealand
Gary Brierley
gbrierley@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
School of Geography
Private Bag 92019
Auckland
New Zealand
Kaoru Y amaguchi
kaoru3@ muratopia.org
Doshisha University
521 Minamidani Aihara
Goshiki-cho Sumoto Hyogo 656-1325
Japan
Simulating Pollution from Urban Stormwater in
Project Twin Streams Catchment, Auckland,
New Zealand
A system dynamics simulation is presented that models the accumulation
of the urban non-point source pollutant zinc from stormwater run-off
into an estuary in West Auckland, New Zealand. The boundary and
resolution of the model is restricted by available data to a simple
structure containing combined inflows and one stock, with no outflow.
This is a realistic approximation of system behaviour and mirrors results
from other studies in principle. We question the usefulness of such a
simulation in its lack to address any socio-ecological processes and
concems. Qualitative modelling is deemed more useful for systemic
understanding mandated as part of the transition towards sustainable
urban environments.
Mental Models in Urban Stormwater
Management
Environmental problems and solutions are often conceptualised in many
different ways by different stakeholders. In order to address behaviour
change and move towards more sustainable approaches in stormwater
management, there needs to be understanding of and engagement with
these differing perspectives. This case study uses cognitive mapping to
elicit and transparently capture perceptions on stormwater problems and
solution fies in stormwater techniques of 31 diverse
stakeholders of stormwater management in Twin Streams catchment,
Auckland, New Zealand. Three perspectives have been discovered and
are synthesized in causal loop di : CO! ional fixes, low impact
solutions and community development. Analysis confirms that these
perspectives are diverse and potentially conflicting. Moreover, each
perspective has shortcomings in providing solutions that can address
effectively the challenges posed by stormwater. As a result, the
integration of the perspectives in a wider move of all stakeholders
towards a culture of transition is proposed. The implementation of low
impact solutions is essential in addressing existing environmental
degradation and achieving restoration efforts in the short term. In order
to realise inable stormwater however, the long term
focus must be on social learning, behaviour change, the creation of
effective partnerships with local authorities and community ownership.
Logical vs Historical Time in A Price
Adjustment Mechanism
Recent global financial crisis seems to be re-kindling the battle of
economic thoughts which has been dominated by the neoclassical
doctrine as free market fund: lism. This paper first ines the
lassical dation of price ad hanism built on logical
time, using system dynamics modeling. Then it is argued that similar
workings could be done in a real market economy running on historical
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 123
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Min-Ren Yan
aaron@ neter.com.tw
Chinese Culture University
No 213 Sec 2 Jianguo S Rd
Da-an Dist Taipei City 106
Taiwan
Mike Yearworth
mike@ groundedsystems.com
Grounded Systems Ltd
24 Raglan Road
Bristol BS7 8EH
UK
Gonenc Y iicel
g.yucel@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5 Room B-3-280
2628 BX Delft The Netherlands
Cornelia van Daalen
c.vandaalen@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Tech Policy and Mgt
PO Box 5015 2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
time by the interplay of price, inventory and their interdependent
feedback relations. This implies that off-equilibrium analysis built on
historical time without neoclassical concept of auctioneer is a better way
of representing market activities. This approach can be made possible by
system dynamics modeling.
The Market C ompetitive Behavior in the
Project-based Industries
Project-based industries are among the largest industries in the global
economy and project-based organizations are also becoming prevalent in
the emerging industries. In a project-based industry, a contract is usually
awarded before the goods or services are completely provided by the
contractor and contractors routinely compete for contracts under specific
project awarding systems. The characteristic of the transactions and
contractors reactions to project awarding systems forms unique pattern
of market competitive behavior of the project-based industry. This paper
the market petitive behavior and the problems of the
ineffective competition under price-based and qualification-based project
awarding systems. Several unanticipated adverse feedback behavioral
loops generated from contractors opportunistic bidding are discovered
and analyzed. Managerial policy implications to project owners are also
discussed and tested through a simulation model.
Inductive Modelling of an Entrepreneurial
System
In this paper we present a model that represents a novel approach to
generating a theory of the behaviour of an entrepreneurial or start-up
system. The system around the cities of Bath and Bristol in the UK was
analysed using an inductive ethnographic approach that hybridises
grounded theory with system dynamics, an approach we have called
grounded systems modelling. The model consists of three main causal
loops that represent the stages of development of an idea through to
successful exploitation - i) Spotting opportunity, testing and validation,
ii) Realistic equity position, and iii) Scale up and exit. The results are
discussed within the context of entrepreneurial research and a critique of
the methodology is offered.
The Impact of Aggregation Assumptions and
Social Network Structure on Diffusion Dynamics
Diffusion problems in general, and innovation diffusion problems in
specific, are one of the most frequently revisited issues in system
dynamics domain. Although the models used for analyzing specific
diffusion problems differ in details, in most cases a set of assumptions is
recognized to be common. In this study, we aim to conduct a set of
experiments in order to question the validity and potential impact of
fundamental assumptions regarding the aggregation and social network
124 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z
Mehdi Zamanipour
mehdi@ zamanipour.com
University of Tehran
124 Adl St Binjand
Southern Khorasan
Tran
Qian Zhang
zhang31@ indiana.edu
Indiana University
919 E10th Street
Bloomington IN 47408
USA
Nathaniel Osgood
osgood@ alum.mit.edu
University of Saskatchewan
Computer Science Dpt 280.6 Thorvaldson
110 Science Place
Saskatoon SK S7N 5C9
Canada
structure. First, a generic model focuses on the impact of information
dynamics that accompany the diffusion process of an innovation is
introduced. The experiments conducted on the aggregate and individual-
level versions of the model reveal that the behavior of the system
converges to the aggregate model assuming perfect mixing as the
network gets denser. Secondly, the change in diffusion levels as a
consequence of changing network densities was monotonic. However,
direction of change was different for different groups of scenarios tested.
In other words, in some cases diffusion level increases as the network
gets denser, while in some other cases the opposite is observed.
A System Dynamics Model for Analyzing the
Effects of Government Policies: A Case Study of
Iran's Cell Phone Market
In 2005 Mr. Mahmoud A hmadinezhad won the presidential election
campaign and became the new president of Iran. He desired to change
deeply most of the usual social and economical rules and policies in
Iran’s society. For example, he decided to change the rate of tariff in
many kinds of products such as cell phones. Since he has wanted to
make Iran an independent country in producing cell phone and also to
create some job opportunity, he increased the rate of tariff for imported
cell phones and at the other hand many contracts was established with
cell phone companies to achieve the high technology of producing or
assembling cell phone. So a huge investment was done to make the first
Iranian National cell phone. But the cell phone market was shocked by
this hasty decision and little by little all of the cell phones in the market
were became contraband. In this research we are going to analyze the
effect of changing the rate of imported cell phone and also we explain
some policies for setting the rate of tariff.
Local Analysis of Individual-based Viral
Dynamic Models with Eigenspace and
Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis
Eigenvalue elasticity methods have been widely applied in analyzing
linear and simple nonlinear systems. In this study, we applied this
approach to gain insight into the leverage offered by parameter changes
in individual-based viral dynamic models for studying and controlling
infectious disease spread. We found that such eigenspace based methods
encounter severe limitations when applied to nonlinear systems with a
relatively large number of state variables. Although eigenvalue elasticity
offers some insight into the short-term impact of parameter changes,
eigenvalue elasticity method can be complicated and even unwieldy for
ing the impacts of changes for models with a
relatively large number of state variables because of eigenvalue
multiplicity, co-effects of eigenvalues, eigenvectors and coefficients. In
terms of disease control, while such analysis methods could be helpful
for identifying policy levers with high short-term impact, it is inefficient.
In addition, we found that parameter changes guided by such local
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 125
Parallel and Poster Session Papers, S-Z.
Nicole Zimmermann
zimmermann.nicole@ gmail.com
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss
68131 Mannheim
Germany
techniques are usually insufficient to alter system behaviors in the long-
term, such as in the phase of endemic spread in the infectious disease
spread. We argue that further work should be focused on refining
eigenspace techniques and developing global analysis method to
understand the impact of parameter changes on long-term behavior.
Dynamics of Organizational A daptation, Inertia,
and Routines: Generic C ontributions from a
Study of Change
Inertia and routines are important organizational characteristics affecting
organizations’ evolution. Empirical research has found mixed results
conceming the question whether change establishes change routines that
make organizations more malleable or whether transformations inhibit
further alterations. Reasons for these results are analyzed in this paper by
means of a case study of organizational change at the New Y ork Stock
Exchange and respective system dynamics modeling. The analysis
reveals that there are multiple effects in the explanation of organizational
transformations which dynamically interact and become important
determinants of change and ad ion. The simul i ion
of balancing and reinforcing effects of adaptation, inertia, change
routines, and reactions to threat sheds light on the ambiguous empirical
results.
126 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Plenary Session Papers
George A. Backus
gabacku@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Albuquerque NM 87185-0370
USA
Jeff Amlin
JeffAmlin@ ENERGY2020.com
Systematic Solutions, Inc.
1519 Heatherwood Trail
Xenia OH 45385
USA
James K. Doyle
doyle@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Dept of Social Science
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Jeanine Skorinko
skorinko@ wpi.edu
WPI
100 Institute Rd
Worcester MA 01609
USA
A History of Making Energy Policy
For more than 30 years, system dynamics has played a noteworthy role
in the making of energy policy for many states, provinces, corporations,
and countries. This work has covered the spectrum from predictive
forecasting, to strategic planning, to assessing policy options, to
negotiating policy, to shaping policy, to defending policy, to swaying
policy. While The FOSSIL1 model appears to have begun this process,
the ENERGY 2020 model continues to influence the policy process in
functional, but possibly ambiguous, ways.
Personal versus Situational Dynamics:
Implications of Barry Richmond's Models of
Classic Experiments in Social Psychology
There is a long-standing debate in the field of social psychology as to
which is the primary determinant of behavior, the situation or system in
which people act or the personalities of the role players. Psychologists
have long studied this problem with controlled experiments on human
subjects, and have now come to a general resolution of the debate.
However, the field of psychology still lacks an efficient method for
teasing apart the relative contributions of personal and situational
variables in applied domains. An alternative to human subjects
experiments is to employ system dynamics models of role systems, as
was demonstrated by Barry Richmond when he attempted to model two
classic experiments in social psychology: the Milgram and Stanford
Prison experiments. In this paper, we replicate and discuss Barry
Richmond's models to present them to a new audience. In addition, we
use the models as a springboard to explore the relationship between
social psychology and system dynamics and the potential for useful
collaboration between the two fields.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 127
Plenary Session Papers
Navid Ghaffarzadegan
navidg@ gmail.com
University at Albany
122 Manning Blvd
Albany NY 12203
John Lyneis
jlyneis@ mit.edu
MIT
1010 Massachusetts A venue A pt 56
Cambridge MA 02138
USA
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 318 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222
USA
Robert J. Glass
riglass@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Box 5800
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA
Alan K. Graham
alan.k.graham@ alum.mit.edu
PA Consulting Group
68 Allen Street
Lexington MA 02421
USA
Why and How Small System Dynamics Models
Can Help Policymakers: A Review of Two Public
Policy Models
Public policies often fail to achieve their intended result due to the
complexity of both the environment and the policy making process. In
this article, we review the benefits of using small system dynamics
models to address public policy questions. First we discuss the main
difficulties inherent in the public policymaking process. Then, we
discuss how small system dynamics models can address policymaking
difficulties by ining two isi les: the first in the
domain of urban planning and the second in the domain of social
welfare. These examples show how we can get insightful and important
lessons for policy making that are exclusive to the endogenous and
aggregate perspective in modeling and simulation.
Pandemic Influenza and C omplex Adaptive
Systems of Systems (CA SoS) Engineering
We present the story of our involvement in the formulation of the US's
policy for mitigating pandemic influenza. At the heart of this formulation
was modeling but in its actualization was interaction, drive, serendipity,
hard work and advocacy for the use of models to select robust policy in
the face of great uncertainty. Reflecting on this entire process and others
where high impact influence has been achieved has led us to a
recognition that nearly all the systems that we wish to influence can be
categorized as Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems or CASoS and
that our field of endeavor is CASoS Engineering.
Four Grand Challenges for System Dynamics
In 2007 Jay Forrester challenged the field of system dynamics to address
the big issues. This paper discusses four "big issues" as "Grand
Challenges" in the DARPA sense, which meet the criteria of 1)
impacting lives or livelihoods of millions or billions of people, 2)
currently being govemed by mental models that are seriously flawed,
and 3) being addi ible by system d ics and ingly few other
disciplines. These are: 1. Insurgency, governance and political stability
2. Acting on global warming 3. Global financial stability 4. Harmonious
Chinese growth For each of these, the paper discusses the flaws in
governing mental models, briefly indicates the scope of analysis needed,
and gives a representative causal diagram showing some of the loops that
are complicating and obscuring a correct and widespread understanding
of each issue.
128 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Plenary Session Papers
Andrew P. Jones
apjones@ sustainer.org
Sustainability Institute
8 Lynmar Avenue
Asheville NC 28804
USA
John Sterman
jsterman@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142
USA
Thomas Fiddaman
tom@ metasd.com
Ventana Systems
1070 Bridger Woods Road
Bozeman MT 59715
USA
Travis Franck
travler@ mitedu
MIT
1 Amherst St E40-428
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
Birgit Kopainsky
birgit kopainsky@ flury-giuliani.ch
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
PO Box 7800
N-5020 Bergen
Norway
Sebastian Derwisch
s.derwisch@ cgiar.org
University of Bergen
Postbus 7800
Bergen 5020
Norway
Using C-ROADS to Support Analysis of
International Climate C hange Proposals
We report the creation and initial use of the Climate-Rapid Overview
And Decision Support Simulator (C-ROADS), a simple, fast, user-
friendly simulation of climate change that conforms with accepted
climate science while allowing decision makers to discover through
interactive exploration the range of greenhouse gas emissions trajectories
sufficient to achieve widely accepted goals for climate stabilization such
as stabilizing CO2 levels at 350-450 parts per million (ppm) or limiting
temperature increase to no more than 2 deg. Centigrade over pre-
industrial temperatures. Our results show that these proposals--even if
fully implemented--would be far from sufficient to meet the goals of
stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels at or below 450 ppm (reaching ~ 730
ppm by 2100) or limiting warming to 2 deg. C over pre-industrial
temperatures (reaching ~4 deg. C by 2100).
Elizabeth Sawin
bethsawin@ sustainer.org
Sustainability Institute
3 Linden Road
Hartland VT 05048
USA
Model-based exploration of strategies for
fostering adoption of improved seed in West
Africa
Seed of improved varieties and other inputs are imperative to the
ion of the agricultural sector from subsi e farming to
small-scale commercial agriculture in developing countries. This paper
analyzes the adoption and diffusion process of improved seed by farmers
in West Africa. The literature about farmers’ adoption of new
agricultural technology is abundant, yet it gives no inte-grated, process-
oriented policy ive that helps designing effective ies for
fostering the adoption of improved seed in West Africa. This paper
develops a system dynamics model that integrates the findings from
existing studies into a coherent framework. The model analyses the
behav-ior pattems that are generated by such structure. With this
approach we are able to identify parame-ter constellations that cause
observed behavior patterns for different crops in different countries. On
this basis we can derive policy implications for supporting adoption for
specific crops (such as cotton and maize) and countries (such as Burkina
Faso and Ghana) in West Africa.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 129
Plenary Session Papers
Dennis Meadows
lataillede@ aol.com
Laboratory for Interactive Learning
PO Box 844
Durham NH 03824
USA
Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ cde.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
360 Brooks Avenue NE
Atlanta GA 30307
Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting
4016 Hermitage Dr
Voorhees NJ 08043
USA
Gary B. Hirsch
gbhirsch@ comcast.net,
Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road
Wayland MA 01778
SA
What Models Are Required To Understand
Global Limits To Growth In The Next Two
Decades?
The industrialized democracies will experience more change in the two
decades, 2005-2025 than they did in the entire 20th century. The change
will be driven in part by the exploding effects of physical limits to
growth such as water scarcity, declining availability of fossil fuels,
climate change, and soil erosion. These changes will confront society
with an enormous challenge - finding ways that information about
longer-term problems can be presented so that it has a constructive
impact on political and corporate leaders, who typically have very short-
term perspectives. There will be a new set of dynamic questions to
explore. For example, how can an society continue to satisfy the needs of
its people while experiencing an aging population and declining labor
force? How can an economy adapt to rising energy prices without
reducing the well-being of its citizens? How can research on
temperature-tolerant food species be introduced into the agricultural
system without disrupting existing food chains? Dennis Meadows will
list several of the important limits, give data on their current and likely
future impact, and describe some of the system dynamics modeling
opportunities they will afford.
The HealthBound Policy Simulation Game: An
Adventure in US Health Reform
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed the
HealthBound game for those wanting to experience the possibility of
transforming our troubled health system. Players are equipped with the
power to navigate the country’s health system toward greater levels of
health, equity, and cost-effectiveness, if only they can discover how. The
players’ goals are difficult to achieve, in part, because the game includes
resource constraints, time delays, and side effects of intervention similar
to those of the actual health system. The game allows tests of single
interventions, as well as a high degree of creativity in mixing them for
better effects. There is also a transparent causal structure that allows
players to identify the precise reasons for patterns observed in the game.
Players learn by simulated experience and by tracing through the reasons
for their successes or failures. Those who aspire to lead change on a
national scale, or in their own sphere of influence, may benefit by first
testing and refining their ideas in this realistic, but simplified version of
the U.S. health system. The game teaches essential lessons about how
the health system works and establishes a productive frame for finding a
viable way forward.
130 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Plenary Session Papers
Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6
5020 Bergen
Norway
Paul Newton
paul.c.newton2@ boeing.com
The Boeing Company
10718 Country Club Lane South
Seattle WA 98168
USA
Michael Richey
michael.c.richey@ boeing.com
The Boeing Company
Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh
mohammad mojtahedzadeh@ boeing.com
The Boeing Company
PO Box 3707 MC4A-73
Seattle WA 98124-2207
USA
Hernando A lex Sanchez
alex_sanchez@ raytheon.com
Raytheon
18 Piedmont St
Boston MA 02116
USA
Brian Wells
brian_h_wells@ raytheon.com
235 Wyman Street
Waltham MA 02451
Are advice adhered to? Populist versus activist
or expert advice.
Laboratory experiments of decision making have revealed widespread
misperceptions of nonlinear dynamic systems. A possible criticism of
these experiments is that participants do not get the advice they may
receive in real situations. Here we repeat one previous experiment where
we add two conflicting advice. A ‘populist’ advice reflects typical
misperceptions while a second advice represents a near-to-optimal
policy. The latter advice is in the wording of an ‘activist’ in Treatment 1
and in the wording of an ‘expert’ in systems analysis in Treatment 2. The
results suggest that advice, including near-to-optimal ones, may have
minor effects in complex systems. Activist wording seems more
effective than expert wording, with the possible exception for
participants with a certain background in stock and flow reasoning.
STEM Pressures from Birth to Globalization:
Five Related Models
In the U.S., there is progressively more concem about the impact that
changes in science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) skills
might have on the future of U.S. prosperity. In parallel with their many
STEM initiatives, industry, education, and govemment are engaged in
multi-faceted STEM policy conversations, both among themselves and
with the American public. We know of five system dynamics models
that have been developed toward the objective of improving these STEM
policy conversations. In this session, Boeing, as catalyst for development
of three of these five models, will outline the STEM problem, summarize
and lightly compare the five models, and present one of the models. The
model presented here arose from a reading of the National A cademies'
report, "Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing
America for a Brighter Economic Future." The model focuses on the
reinforcing feedback between U.S. prosperity and the U.S. Science and
Technology Enterprise, and concentrates attention on how education,
R&D investment, and immigration policies might act to strengthen or
weaken that feedback. Thus, this model provides a dynamic conceptual
framework within which one can place the other four STEM models to
be presented in other sessions at this conference.
Using System Dynamics to Model Student
Interest in Science, Technology, Engineering,
and Mathematics
This paper presents preliminary results of a Raytheon project that uses
systems dynamics to understand the intricacies of the U.S. educational
system and to assist in exploring the effects of policies and programs,
with a goal of doubling the numbers of science, technology, engineering
and mathematics (STEM) college graduates by 2015. Specifically, a
system dynamics model has been developed, the initial version of which
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 131
Plenary Session Papers
Joanne M. Attridge
joanne_m_attridge@raytheon.com
350 Lowell Street
Andover MA 01810
USA
Peter M. Senge
diane@ solonline.org
Society for Organizational Learning
25 First St Ste 414
Cambridge MA 02141
USA
Ozge Pala
o.pala@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
School of Management
Th van Aquinostraat 1 2 2 PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Paul Newton
paul.c.newton2@ boeing.com
The Boeing Company
10718 Country Club Lane South
Seattle WA 98168
USA
Bruce Skarin
bruceskarin@ hotmail.com
Aptima Inc
25 Herricks Lane
Millbury MA 01527
USA
Oleg V. Pavlov
opavlov@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Jeanine Skorinko
skorinko@ wpi.edu
WPI
100 Institute Rd
Worcester MA 01609
USA
targets increasing the number of students both capable and interested in
pursuing careers in STEM disciplines. A few scenarios have been
analyzed that examine changes for improving student capabilities. Initial
results provide insight into the value and viability of a few proposed
policies and indicate that with continued research, model development,
and analysis it will be possible to further assess proposed improvements
in the U.S education system.
A Conversation with Peter Senge, Ozge Pala,
and Paul Newton
This event will entail a semi-structured dialogue with Peter Senge, the
well-known author of The Fifth Discipline, Ozge Pala, a promising
young scholar, and Paul Newton, an entrepreneurial modeler. Together
they will reflect on their experiences with fostering genuine systems
awareness and wiser actions within education, civil society and business.
The conversation will address themes, topics and questions of interest to
the audience, both surveyed in advance and impromptu. This event is a
special feature of the K-12 program thread which is open to all
conference participants.
Modeling the Cycles of Gang and Criminal
Behavior
Ina study done by Saeed and Pavlov a generic microstructure of
resource competition was developed and stylized using the dynastic
cycles that occurred throughout Chinese history. The result was a model
that demonstrated how economic drivers contribute to the cycles
observed in the rise and fall of dynasties and lawlessness. Using their
structure, with only a few substitutions of names, the same model
suitably describes numerous systems where similar cycles in resource
levels can be observed. Y et, in some systems, such as gangs, the
economic motivations alone do not adequately describe the social factors
clearly evident in rise and fall of criminal behavior attributed to gangs.
This paper explores the social influence gaps in the purely economic
model, identifies a social structure that can be used instead of the
economic mechanisms, and then examines implications of a model that
combines both aspects of the system. The result of this research indicates
that both economic and social influences are capable of producing cycles
and when combined, only further exacerbate the problem. These findings
have import implications on policy design, suggesting that solutions will
need to simultaneously consider both aspects.
132 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Plenary Session Papers
To Be Announced
Presentation by the System Dynamics
Applications Award Winner
The System Dynamics A pplications A ward is presented by the System
Dynamics Society as often as once every two years for the best "real
world" application of system d ducted within 10 years of the
submission deadline. The best application will be based primarily on
d ible benefit to an ization through the use of
system dynamics, and secondarily for new ideas that improve the art of
applying system dynamics, or for relating work to existing system.
dynamics literature and/or other disciplines. The winner will be
announced during this session, followed by a presentation by this year’s
winner.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 133
Meetings, Special & C onvened Sessions
Mark Heffernan
mheffernan@ evanspeck.com
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
475 Victoria Ave Level 6 Tower 2
Chatswood NSW 2067
Australia
Joanne C. Egner
jegner@ iseesystems.com
isee systems inc
31 Old Etna Road Suite 7N
Lebanon NH 03766
USA
Leonard A. Malczynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Mail Stop 0735
Albuquerque NM 87123-1350
USA
Aldo Zagonel
aazagon@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137
USA
Andrew Ford
forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
Environmental Science
PO Box 644430
Pullman WA 99164-4430
USA
Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting
4016 Hermitage Dr
Voorhees NJ 08043
USA
Listed alphabetically by Session name
Australasia C hapter Annual Meeting
The Australasia Chapter will meet at the Conference to discuss progress
in the past year, and also to develop a plan for the coming year.
Barry Richmond Scholarship A ward
Announcement (External Award)
The Barry Richmond Scholarship A ward is presented annually to a
deserving Systems Thinking or System Dynamics practitioner whose
work demonstrates a desire to expand the field or to apply it to current
social issues. The winner of this award will be announced at the banquet
on Tuesday evening.
Conference Debriefing and
Program Debriefing Meetings
All are welcome to attend these meetings to talk about what worked and
what needed imp! at the Alb C Also, please
remember to complete and return the conference survey. Post-
conference, please email the conference survey to Etiénne Rouwette
<E.Rouwette@fm.ru.nl>. A link to an online version of the survey will
be available via the conference website
(http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/current/index.htm).
David N. Ford Edward G. Anderson
davidford@ tamu.edu edward.anderson@ mccombs.utexas.edu
Texas A&M University University of Texas
Dept Civil Engineering McCombs School of Business
Mailstop 3136 IROM Dept
College Station TX 77843-3136 1 University Station B6500
USA Austin TX 78712 USA
Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany
Albany NY 12222
134 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Meetings, Special and C onvened S
R. Joel Rahn
jrahn@ sympatico.ca
4636 Sugar Maple Drive
Ottawa ON K1V 1Y6
Canada
Kaoru Y amaguchi
kaoru3@ muratopia.org
Doshisha University
521 Minamidani Aihara
Goshiki-cho Sumoto Hyogo 656-1325
Japan
Michael S. Kennedy
mike kennedy@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
Department of Accounting and Finance
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA
UK
Carol Frances
carolfrances100@ hotmail.com
27711 Vista del Valle
Hemet Califomia 92544-8394
USA
Andrea Marcello Bassi
ab@ millennium-institute.org
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650
Arlington VA 22201
USA
Luc Van Den Durpel
vddurpel@ listo.be
LISTO bvba
Groenstraat 35
9250 Waasmunster
Belgium
Dana Meadows Award Announcement
The Dana Meadows A ward was established in 2001 to honor the late
Dana Meadows and encourage the next generation of students in the
field of system dynamics. The award is given annually for the best paper
by a student presented at the annual System Dynamics Conference.
Students can self-nominate any manuscript that has been submitted for
inclusion in the conference. The winner receives a cash award of $500 as
well as conference registration plus travel expenses (up to a combined
maximum of $700).
Economics Chapter Annual Meeting
The Economics Chapter will hold its annual meeting. All are welcome to
attend.
Education Roundtable and Education SIG
Annual Meeting
This Roundtable is the place to come to discuss substantive education
issues, whether you are part of the Education SIG or simply exploring
possibilities. The Ed SIG is establishing an agenda which embraces both
elementary and secondary education and high education. We also deal
with both management and public policy issues. We will continue
working on the intellectual and operational challenges to system
dynamics of the PK-20+ concept of lifelong learning from
prekindergarten to continuing adult education, reaching beyond the usual
silos separating the domains. Come tell us what you are working on, or
just ask questions.
Energy Roundtable and Energy SIG Annual
Meeting
The Energy Roundtable will have two main purposes this year. Firstly,
we will update all interested parties on past and present activities and
will collect ideas on possible next steps for the Energy SIG. Secondly,
specific relevant energy issues will be discussed, to identify what critical
contributions the SD community could provide.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 135
Meetings, Special and C onvened S'
Allyson Beall
abeall@ wsu.edu
Washington State University
344 NW Harrison St
Pullman WA 99163
Robert L. Eberlein
bob@vensim.com
Ventana Systems Inc
17 Loker Street
Wayland MA 01778 USA
Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany
Albany NY 12222 USA
Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ cde.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
360 Brooks Avenue NE
Atlanta GA 30307
Mark Heffernan
mheffernan@ evanspeck.com
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
475 Victoria Ave Level 6 Tower 2
Chatswood NSW 2067
Australia
Environmental Roundtable and Environmental
SIG Annual Meeting
The environmental special interest group welcomes everyone to join us
in this important discussion about the chall ding the use of
system dynamics for natural resource modeling. Issue for discussion:
Natural resource modelers often need to use data to create model
behavior; moreover our cliental often expect to see their data and how it
fits into a model. What are the challenges of managing the data driven
nature of environmental while still designing system dynamic models.
Many people who are not trained in system dynamics pick up software
such as Stella and Vensim, build models and assume they are doing
system dynamics. When they do not get results that are insightful they
think that system dynamics is not useful. What can we do as a
community of practice to enlighten modelers that system dynamics is
much more than software and encourage the (proper) use of system
dynamics in this field?
Exhibitor Demonstrations
Exhibitor demonstrations will be held during breaks to showcase
products and services in practice.
Getting to Know the System Dynamics Society
This event gives newer conference attendees an opportunity to leam
more about the Society and to meet a few of the officers. This is a very
informal meeting with a web tour of how to best use the Society's
website. Most of the time will be spent on questions generated by the
audience.
Health Policy Special Interest Group Business
Meeting for Exploring C ollaborations
Health policy challenges in different countries often share similar
structural features. Therefore it has been a longstanding goal of the
HPSIG to foster international collaboration in studying health system
dynamics. Previous efforts to pool insights and compare findings across
countries have focused on approaches to national health reform as well
as efforts to reduce health inequities. Anyone intersted exploring
ities for future collak is welcome to attend this informal,
organizational meeting. Please bring ideas about where your work may
focus in the year ahead and which topics seem best suited for
collaborative or comparative modeling.
136 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Meetings, Special and C onvened S
Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ cde.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
360 Brooks Avenue NE
Atlanta GA 30307
Mark Heffernan
mheffernan@ evanspeck.com
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
475 Victoria Ave Level 6 Tower 2
Chatswood NSW 2067
Australia
Peter Otto
ottop@ union.edu
Union Graduate College
410 Terrace Road
Schenectady NY 12306
USA
Oleg V. Pavlov
opavlov@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Peter Otto
ottop@ union.edu
Union Graduate College
410 Terrace Road
Schenectady NY 12306
USA
Evangelos Katsamakas
katsamakas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University
113 West 60th Street
School of Business 6th floor
New York NY 10023
USA
Health Policy Special Interest Group,
Roundtable and Election (Sunday)
The Health Policy Special Interest Group formed more than six years
ago and has grown to include nearly 300 members. We are an
intemational SIG with worldwide bership and active collak
that use dynamic analyses to advance major policy initiatives. Current
activities include gathering on-line teaching materials, fostering
international collaboration in understanding health system change, and
assembling a library of SD health models. This year’s meeting will
feature project summaries from some of the world’s health policy
modelers and we will award the second annual student prize in Health
System dynamics (: 1 by the Lupina F dation of Canada).
Regardless of whether you are new to the field or a veteran modeler, we
welcome your participation in exchanging ideas about how SD can better
engage and support health policy leaders around the world.
Information Science and Information Systems
iSIG Annual Meeting
The Information Science and Information Systems Special Interest
Group (iSIG)will meet at the Conference to discuss progress in the last
year, and also to develop a plan for the coming year.
Evangelos Katsamakas
katsamakas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University
113 West 60th Street
School of Business 6th floor
New Y ork NY 10023
Information Science and Information Systems
iSIG Roundtable
The Information Science and Information Systems Special Interest
Group (iSIG) is interested in supporting the promotion of quality system
dynamics work in the areas of Information Science and Information
Systems. System dynamics has a long history analyzing complex
problems in a variety of application domains, ranging from
environmental or public policy, corporate strategy, security, healthcare,
and i to change However, it has not
seen extensive application in the Information Science and Systems
literature. The iSIG seeks to discuss research initiatives in the field of
Information Systems and Science as part of the Intemational Conference
in System Dynamics. The roundtable discussion aims to establish a
roadmap for research topics and collaborative initiatives within the scope
of the iSIG. We will facilitate a discussion and provide examples of
research studies in the field and hope to agree on an agenda for future
work.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 137
Meetings, Special and C onvened S'
Leonard A. Malczynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Mail Stop 0735
Albuquerque NM 87123-1350 USA
Edward G. Anderson
edward.anderson@ mecombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas
McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Station B6500
Austin TX 78712 USA
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609 USA
Habib Sedehi
habib.sedehi@ uniromal it
University of Rome
La Sapienza
Via Rubra 246
00188 Rome Italy
Lees N. Stuntz
stuntzln@ clexchange.org
Creative Leaming Exchange
27 Central Street
Acton MA 01720 USA
Tracy Benson
Lbenson@ watersfoundation.org
Waters Foundation
6420 E Broadway Blvd
Suite A100 Pima Regional Support Ctr
Tuscon AZ 85710 USA
Inter- and Intranational C onflict Roundtable
and SIG Annual Meeting
The Special Interest Group: Inter- and Intranational Conflict was
approved by the Policy Council of the System Dynamics Society on 3
March 2008. The SIG is concerned with the application of systems
dynamics to ding inter- and i ional conflict, e.g. military
and political conflict, terrorism, insurgency, etc. There is a wide range of
interested individuals, both academics and practitioners, currently
applying the system dynamics approach to this area. Much of this work
has not been published or is difficult to obtain. The purpose of the
roundtable is to attract more interest and to frame how the SIG can
interact, for example, in paper reviews, attendance at non-system
dynamics conflict conferences. etc.
Introduction of the System Dynamics
Applications Award Winner
The System Dynamics A pplications A ward is presented by the System
Dynamics Society as often as once every two years for the best "real
world" appli of system dt ducted within 10 years of the
submission deadline. The best application will be based primarily on
d ible benefit to an ion through the use of
system dynamics, and secondarily for new ideas that improve the art of
applying system dynamics, or for relating work to existing system.
dynamics literature and/or other disciplines.
Italian Chapter (SY DIC) Annual Meeting
This is the annual meeting of the Italian Chapter (SY DIC). All are
welcome.
K-12 Poster Session: What Is Happening in K-12
Systems Dynamics and Systems Thinking?
Come, enjoy, and learn from the wonderful and productive thinking that
is happening with students ages 5-19! This session is designed to be
informative and educational for both the participants at the International
System Dynamics Conference and the students and teachers who are
presenting examples of their system dynamics and systems thinking
work in classrooms. It is a chance to inform professionals, as well as
give the poster presenters a chance to interact positively with those
conversant in system dynamics. Constructive and positive discussion is
encouraged. This session is part of a special emphasis during this
to be welcoming, inclusive, and collaborative with the K-12
community.
138 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Meetings, Special and C onvened S
Gloria Pérez Salazar
gloria perez@ itesm.mx
Tecnologico de Monterrey
Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
Av Eugenio Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL
Mexico
Jeffrey Boyer
jboyer01@ nycap.rr.com
University at Albany
College of Nanoscale Science & Eng
257 Fuller Road
Albany NY 12203
SA
Peter J. Warrian
peterwarrian@ sympatico.ca
Lupina Foundation
1 Devonshire Place
Toronto ON M5S 3Ky
Canada
Latin America Chapter Annual Meeting
During the 2008 Annual Meeting we met many Spanish-speaking
members living outside the Spanish-speaking countries and the wider
group continues to grow. This year's meeting is an opportunity to talk
about sponsorships and future joint activities and also to welcome new
members. Any topic members feel is relevant for the development of the
Chapter (whose mission is to spread system dynamics in the Spanish
speaking world) are welcome.
Long Waves and Short Waves - How Should
Business Simulations Ride the Wave?
Roundtable & Business SIG Annual Meeting
Business activities have heen described using system dynamics for more
than fifty years. Planning and scheduling, product adoption, profitability,
job satisfaction, and many other parameters have been simulated. But
have the prevailing assumptions behind these models been complete, or
have they reflected narrow experience observed over a relatively short
period? How many of the business-related models reported within the
past ten years, for example, examined the effects of a major recession?
Are the resulting policies rational at this time? Can and should the
models be adjusted to reflect the current situation? Or should new
models be developed? In light of the significant downtum in the global
economy, is it time to rethink the underlying paradigms of economic and
market behaviors? Have system dynamics models been based on overly
optimistic expectations for long-term performance, leading to policies
that do not consider negative externalities? What is the need for
including a long-term view, say fifty or sixty years, of external economic
and political cycles when simulating behavior over ten or twenty years?
This dtable will be an open di ion of the value of including the
effects of short-, medium-, and long-term economic cycles on the
dynamic simulation of business activities.
Lupina Y oung Researchers Award
Announcement (External A ward)
The Health Policy Special Interest Group (HPSIG) of the System
Dynamics Society is proud to announce the Lupina Y oung Researchers
Award for work in health system dynamics. The award is sponsored by
the Lupina Foundation of Toronto, Canada, and will be accompanied by
acheck in the amount of CAN$5000. The award will be presented to the
recipient (or recipients) during the HPSIG meeting on the Sunday
afternoon meeting just preceding the conference. This award will be
given to people at early stages of their careers to encourage them to do
further work in health system dynamics.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 139
Meetings, Special and C onvened S'
Peter S. Hovmand
phovmand@ wustl.edu
Washington University in St Louis
George Warren Brown School of Social Work
One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
Saint Louis MO 63130
Jill H. Slinger
j.h.slinger@ tbm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5
2628 BX Delft
Netherlands
James Melhuish
jamesmelhuis@ gmail.com
BAE Systems
82 Harvard Street
Newtonville MA 02460-2232
USA
Leonard A. Malczynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Mail Stop 0735
Albuquerque NM 87123-1350
USA
Membership Forum on Diversity in the System
Dynamics Society
The System Dynamics Society has been committed to increasing
diversity in membership and field of system dynamics. This roundtable
provides an open forum for conference attendees to discuss concems,
improvements, and new directions that the System Dynamics Society
should to increase diversity of the membership and field of system
dynamics. Everyone is welcome.
Model Analysis Roundtable and SIG-MA
Annual Meeting
At the 2008 System Dynamics Conference in A thens a survey of the
ing and ex of conference participants di
model analysis was conducted. Respondents included both those active
in research on formal model analysis and those only vaguely familiar
with the term. Results from the survey will be presented and discussed.
The implications for the Special Interest Group on Model Analysis (SIG-
MA) will be explored under the chairmanship of the newly elected co-
chair of the SIG-MA.
Newcomer Orientation
The Newcomer Orientation Session is a special event for newcomers,
scheduled for a half hour on Sunday aftemoon. Newcomers and veteran
attendees (guides) will be brought together based on their topics of
interest. The guides will provide information to help the newcomers
maneuver through the conference resourcefully and get the most out of
the conference experience. The Sunday afternoon session will "self-
organize" into groups of newcomers and guides to cover general topics.
Some examples of topics are Business, Education, Energy, Environment,
Health Policy, Security, Military, Economics, Psychology, Public Policy,
Social Science, Strategy, and Organizational Change. Newcomers will
also be advised of the Society Chapter meetings and the Special Interest
Group (SIG) meetings that may match their interests.
AND
Newcomer Orientation: Scavenger Hunt
Newcomer Orientation Activity: Scavenger Hunt, to be done by
participants throughout the conference. We would like some time on
Wednesday to announce 1st, 2nd, 3rd places.
140 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Meetings, Special and C onvened S
Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting
4016 Hermitage Dr
Voorhees NJ 08043
USA
Roderick H. MacDonald
rod@ isdps.org
Initiative for SD in the Public Sector
300 G Milne Hall
University at Albany
Albany NY 12222
USA
James M. Lyneis
jmlyneis@ alum.mit.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
PO Box 121
215 Landgrove Road
Weston VT 05161 USA
Robert L. Eberlein
bob@vensim.com
Ventana Systems Inc
17 Loker Street
Wayland MA 01778 USA
Jack Pugh
jackpugh@ alum.mit.edu
49 Bedford Rd
Lincoln MA 01773 USA
Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany
Albany NY 12222 USA
Khalid Saeed
saeed@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Ninth Annual Modeling Assistance Workshop
Modeling assistance is available at the conference to enable people to
receive one-on-one coaching with an experienced system dynamics
practitioner. Opportunities include two scheduled sessions, as well as the
possibility of assistance at any time during the conference. Assistance is
available for modelers at any level of modeling ability, from beginner to
advanced, with questions about a specific model, methodology, or
software. Questions may address problem identification, dynamic
hypothesis development, model formulation, model testing, or policy
design and evaluation. Modelers should bring whatever materials they
need to describe their modeling question, including pencil and paper,
articles, books, or laptop computers. Spectators are welcome to observe,
and even contribute their own ideas, during the scheduled modeling
assistance sessions.
Outstanding Service Award Presentation
The System Dynamics Society Outstanding Service A ward recognizes
individuals that have, on a volunteer basis, made exceptional
contributions to the Society over an extended period of time. The Society
has a long and proud tradition of volunteer service and Julie Pugh, who
volunteered as the first Executive Director, has inspired this award. Even
after establishing a central office with a paid professional staff in 1996,
the growth and development of the Society has been heavily dependent
on the work of volunteers. To acknowledge this work, emphasize its
importance in achieving Society goals, and highlight efforts that can
inspire others, this service award was established in 2009. It is awarded
as often as once per year during the annual conference.
Pakistan Chapter Annual Meeting
The Pakistan Chapter will hold its annual meeting. All are welcome to
attend.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 141
Meetings, Special and C onvened S'
Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl
Universidad de Talca
FACE
Avenida Lircay s/n
Talca
Chile
Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de
University of St. Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
9000 St Gallen
Switzerland
Andreas Grofler
agroe@ gmx.de
Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management.
Postbus 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Robert L. Eberlein
bob@vensim.com
Ventana Systems Inc
17 Loker Street
Wayland MA 01778 USA
James M. Lyneis
jmlyneis@ alum.mit.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
PO Box 121
215 Landgrove Road
Weston VT 05161 USA
Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany
Albany NY 12222 USA
David W. Lounsbury
dlounsbu@ aecom.yu.edu
Einstein College of Medicine, Y eshiva
1300 Mortis Park Avenue
Belfer 1302F
Bronx NY 10461 USA
Ralph L. Levine
leviner@ msu.edu
Michigan State University
1954 Riveria Drive
East Lansing MI 48823
USA
Peer Review Dialog Meeting
Since 2005, there has been an opportunity for joint reflection about the
quality of the peer review process at each conference. In the subsequent
conferences, discussin became more structured and this year, a
substantial effort has been made. Still there remains work to be done in
order to arrive at a policy that would achieve a satisfactory balance
between paper and presentation quality on one side and other goals of
the conference on the other. This year’s meeting is the opportunity to
discuss a set of indicators to express the presentation and paper quality
perceived by attendees; also we can assess up to which point the new
policies have yielded improvements. Reviewers, chairs and organizers
are specially invited to give their input.
Prospective C onference Host Meeting
The annual conference is the most important activity of the Society, and
therefore hosting it is a very important contribution to the Society. In
addition, being a host for this event can bring fame (sorry, no fortune) to
the hosting individuals and organization, and attract local interest in the
field. In this meeting we will discuss the timetable and activities
involved in preparing a bid to host the conference, the requirements for a
successful bid, and the requirements for a successful conference. We will
also discuss the Society’s schedule for conference site rotation, and the
role of SIGs and Chapters in conferences. Please attend this meeting if
you have any interest in hosting a future conference.
AND
Conference Budgeting Workshop for Hosting a
Society C onference
This workshop will show how the Society deals with budgeting fora
conference, the budgeting timeline, and what is required financially. This
event is open to anyone interested in our conferences.
Psychology Roundtable
The Psychology Roundtable is a venue for discourse and learning about
ways of integrating psychological processes into system dynamics
models and to apply system dynamics methodology to the formation of
psychological theories. To stimulate discussion, we will present a
dynamics case study of Zimbardo's 'Standford Prison Experiment.'
Modelers of all disciplines and back ds - including the social and
behavioral sciences, health services research and policy, epidemiology,
medicine, genomics, ethics, organizational theory and human resources,
engineering, and beyond - are most welcome to participate.
142 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Meetings, Special and Convyened Sessions
Ralph L. Levine
leviner@msu.edu
Michigan State University
1954 Riveria Drive
East Lansing MI 48823 USA
David W. Lounsbury
dlounsbu@aecom.yu.edu
Einstein College of Medicine, Yeshiva
1300 Morris Park Avenue
Belfer 1302F
Bronx NY 10461 USA
Eliot Rich
rich@acm.org
University at Albany
Dept of Info Technology Management
1400 Washington Avenue BA-310
Albany NY 12222
USA
Edoardo Cavalieri-D'Oro
edo@ed0.it
MIT
95 Allston Street
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegi@tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia
Spain
Christian Weitert
cweitert@is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
University of Mannheim
Schloss Industrieseminar
68131 Mannheim
Germany
Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@web.de
University of St. Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
9000 St Gallen
Switzerland
Psychology Special Interest Group Annual
Meeting
The Psychology SIG is devoted to integrating psychological processes
into system dynamic models and to use system dynamics principles in
developing new psychological theories. We invite members and
prospective members to assist us in conducting a general review of the
state of the SIG, with particular attention given to identifying short-term
and long-term goals and to nominating and conferring new leadership.
Security Roundtable - The Challenges of
Modeling Security Problems and Security SIG
Annual Meeting
Modeling strategic and tactical problems in the information and
infrastructure security domains presents special problems for the system
dynamicist. Concerns about confidentiality, problem uncertainty, and
inter-organizational conflicts all contribute to the modeling challenge.
Once models are crafted, their distribution is often restricted and the
dissemination of insights is limited to the particular sponsor. The
Security SIG convenes a roundtable of modelers who will answer
questions and discuss their experience in past and current projects
concerning: Establishing the problem boundary and choice of modeling
paradigm; Using SD to identify critical scenarios for expert
examination; Eliciting and capturing expert insight from confidential
data; Modeling problems that span the multiple organizations
responsible for security; Creating and disseminating open models;
Publishing opportunities in security research. Invited panelists include:
Edo Cavaleri DOro, MIT Ignacio Martinez-Moyano, Argonne National
Laboratory Tom Corbet, Sandia National Laboratory Finn Olav Sveen,
University at Agder Jose Manuel Torres, TECNUN, University of
Navarra.
Student Chapter Annual Meeting
The Student Chapter brings together students who are involved in system
dynamics research, and it gives them the opportunity to raise key
questions and discuss concerns related to their research in a constructive
and enjoyable atmosphere.
Swiss Chapter Annual Meeting
The Swiss Chapter of the System Dynamics Society consists of
researchers, educators, consultants, and practitioners in corporate and
public sectors. Approximately 140 people receive our e-mails and about
twenty of them are full members who pay the membership fee. The
number of participants in chapter meetings is relatively constant at
around ten. Additional activities involve enhancing consulting
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 143
Meetings, Special and C onvened S'
Diana Fisher
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School
7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008
USA
Gonenc Y iicel
g.yucel@ tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5 Room B-3-280
2628 BX Delft
The Netherlands
Christian Lehr
clehr@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss $ 202-214
68165 Mannheim
Germany
and ed Chapter meetings are organized
where we usually combine a presentation about System Dynamics in
action with the discussion of organizational, chapter-related issues. In
addition, the Swiss Chapter organizes several PhD round tables each
year at different locations. At these meetings, PhD students of
Switzerland who apply System Dynamics and related disciplines in their
research have the opportunity to present and discuss their projects and
obtain feedback from senior researchers and peers. With such a structure,
we try to maximize the benefits for our chapter members. The value
added by the Chapter's activities lies in the provision of networking,
learning and exchange opportunities.
System Dynamics Models Created by High
School Students, Presented by the Students
For those of us who work with students and who have introduced system
dynamics modeling and systems thinking into our curriculum, the time
has come to highlight that student work. We need to begin the process of
changing the minds of other interested educators and parents. We will
not have the statistical data needed to change opinions on a large scale
for at least the next five to ten years. So what can be done now? Let the
students make our point. We need to make student work public. The
work should highlight the important components of the system dynamics
method. It should highlight the study of important problems not usually
addressed in typical classrooms. It should highlight the thought
processes that students go through as they build models and/or analyze
problems using feedback. It should show what policies students might
recommend, or show what policies currently in place would not work, by
using the feedback in the system. It should make a parent want their
child to have an opportunity to learn this way. This paper will present
some recent models created by students ages 15 to 18 ina system
dynamics modeling course in the United States.
System Dynamics PhD Colloquium
The PhD Colloquium is a whole day event for PhD-students to present
and discuss their current research about foundations, techniques, and
applications in the area of system dynamics. Junior and senior system
dynamics practitioners and academics meet here every year to exchange
ideas about students projects in an inspiring international and open-
minded atmosphere. The forth-coming 10th PhD Colloquium will take
place on Sunday, July 26, 2009 at the 27th Intemational Conference of
the System Dynamics Society in Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA.
Plenary pres-entations by PhD-students at the Colloquium will identify
common probl d by these using system
dynamics. Each presentation will be followed by an extensive discussion
session, providing a unique opportunity for learning among all
attendants, and particu-larly for young researchers. Combined with a
poster session, we expect the all-day colloquium to be an exciting event.
To conclude the day, attendants will be invited to join for an informal
and friendly social event. More information is available at
www.sdstudentchapter.org. Any questions about participating in the
colloquium can be directed to phdcolloquium@ systemdynamics.org.
144 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Meetings, Special and C onvened S
Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6
5020 Bergen
Norway
Brian C. Dangerfield
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford
Salford Business School CORAS
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford M5 4WT
UK
System Dynamics Society Business Meeting
All members and interested parties are invited to attend the annual
System Dynamics Society Business Meeting.
United Kingdom Chapter Annual Meeting
The UK Chapter have regular meetings in the UK and annually at the
international conference venue. (See www. systemdynamics.org.uk) This
year we held our 11th Annual Gathering at London South Bank
University. Co-hosted with the SD + Study Group of the UK OR Society,
it proved a great success (53 attendees). The theme was “System
Dynamics: the client perspective”. The first aftemoon consisted of
presentations with clients there to offer their views on SD as a method of
policy analysis. The organisations involved were the Refrigeration
Corporation of Cleveland (Ohio), Bristol Water and the Ministry of
Justice. A buffet dinner followed in the evening. We held our 2nd PhD
Colloquium on the following moming with a number of student poster
presentations. Our evening networking events have continued. These are
an informal means of renewing acquaintances as well as meeting new
faces. This Spring we are planning one outside of London in the NW of
England. If you are based in the UK and not already on our membership
list (membership is free) then please do join us and see what we have to
offer. There are between 80 and 100 members active in SD in the UK.
Users' Group Meetings
Software users' group meetings will be held during the Albuquerque
conference.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 145
Chapter & Special Interest Group
Poster Presentations
Jeffrey Boyer
jboyer01@nycap.rr.com
University at Albany
College of Nanoscale Science & Eng
257 Fuller Road
Albany NY 12203 USA
Kaoru Yamaguchi
kaoru3@muratopia.org
Doshisha University
521 Minamidani Aihara
Goshiki-cho Sumoto Hyogo 656-1325
Japan
Listed alphabetically by Chapter or Special Interest Group name
Business Special Interest Group
Poster Presentation
Does your company use system dynamics modeling? Would you like to
learn how other businesses are applying system dynamics tools? Would
you like some help bringing these tools into your business? The Business
Special Interest Group was formed in 2005 to provide a forum for the
exchange of ideas, methods, and lessons learned in the use of system
dynamics in the corporate world. The SIG has grown substantially in the
number of interested members since then. Our members Tepresent a
cross-section of industrial, c and ic or}
offering tremendous depth and breadth in relevant expertise. Our goal is
to encourage the sharing of system dynamics best practices in business.
Our approach is three-fold: (1) Development of the system dynamics
modeling competence of business users through training and
(2) Sharing n i around effective tools and
with ity to policy and decision
making in business, and (3) Encouraging and inviting presentation tracks
and speakers to present applicable work and case studies at the annual
International System Dynamics Conference.
Economics Chapter
Poster Presentation
The Economics Chapter promotes the use of system dynamics to study
and improve economic systems. The chapter maintains a website
(http://www.s ics.org/cl ) and a mailing list
with over 100 subscribers as of April 2009. Members of the chapter have
organized system dynamics threads during annual meetings of the
System Dynamics Society. Last year's Economics Roundtable discussion
was on the "Global Economic Outlook". This year, the chapter plans to
organize a full Bonus Day workshop on economic modeling. We
anyone i in to visit our poster to learn
about the activities of the chapter and its members. We also want to hear
about your interests and invite you to join the chapter.
146 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Chapter & SIG Poster Presentations
Carol Frances
carolfrances100@ hotmail.com
27711 Vista del Valle
Hemet Califomia 92544-8394
USA
Michael S. Kennedy
mike kennedy@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
Department of Accounting and Finance
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA UK
Andrea Marcello Bassi
ab@ millennium-institute.org
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650
Arlington VA 22201
Luc Van Den Durpel
vddurpel@ listo.be
LISTO bvba
Groenstraat 35
9250 Waasmunster
Belgium
Allyson Beall
abeall@ wsu.edu
Washington State University
344 NW Harrison St
Pullman WA 99163
Education Special Interest Group
Poster Presentation
E-SIG Current and Planned A ctivities 1. Building a network of mutually
helpful resource people interested in system dynamics approaches to any
aspect of education. 2. Encoureging the generation of additional
3.D ive taxonomy of published work
in the field and making it ‘available. 4. Supporting the training of teachers
5. Developing and updating an E-SIG website. 6. Reaching out to other
professional education associations to acquaint them with the potential
value to them of system dynamic approaches to their work. 7.
Encouraging undergraduate and graduate students to undertake projects
and dissertations to advance the theory and application of system
dynamics to education, 8. Organizing the second intemational workshop
on application of system dynamics to education. Please come to the E-
SIG sessions to tell us about your work and find out what others are
doing. See you there !!!
Energy Special Interest Group
Poster Presentation
The poster of the Energy SIG presents past and present activities of the
group. Key energy issues will be highlighted, as well as relevant studies
in the field.
Environmental Special Interest Group
Poster Presentation
The System Dynamics Society has partnered with Carbonfund.org as a
means of offsetting the carbon emissions associated with the conference.
Intemational conferences have an especially high carbon footprint
primarily due to people flying long distances. Other sources of emissions
include hotel energy and food, and local transportation. Other than
having a virtual conference one manner of reducing our carbon footprint
is to purchase carbon offsets. Carbonfund, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, has
helped us estimate our conference emissions at 900.9 metric tons and is
offering a website as a manner to pay for offsets and keep track of our
total contributions. Carbonfund.org supports three types of carbon offset
projects: Renewable Energy - supports clean energy development, such
as wind, solar, and biomass. Energy Efficiency - reduces existing energy
use, much of which comes from coal, oil, and natural gas. Reforestation
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 147
Chapter & SIG Poster Presentations
Jiirgen Strohhecker
j.strohhecker@ frankfurt-school.de
Frankfurt School of Finance and Mgt
Sonnemannstrasse 9-11
D-60314 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Mathias Markus Fischer
mathiasdf@ ibmecsp.edu.br
MFSolutions Strategy & Simulation
Hofham 39
Bad Endorf 83093
Germany
Switbert Miczka
miczka@ systemdynamics.de
Mannheim University
Schloss $211
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany
Florian Kapmeier
florian kapmeier@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
Schoderstr 8
70192 Stuttgart
Germany
Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ cde.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
360 Brooks Avenue NE
Atlanta GA 30307
USA
Mark Heffernan
mheffernan@ evanspeck.com
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
475 Victoria Ave Level 6 Tower 2
Chatswood NSW 2067
Australia
Geoff McDonnell
gmcdonne@ bigpond.net.au
Adaptive Care Systems
382 Bronte Road
Bronte NSW 2024
Australia
- absorbs existing CO2 emissions, which helps to reduce the excess
greenhouse gases that humans have added to the atmosphere. The
interactive poster presented by the Environmental Special Interest Group
provides information about each of these offset projects. To offset your
emissions: http://www.carbonfund.org/site/pages/land/sds_conference.
German Chapter
Poster Presentation
The Chapter advances networking and collaboration among system
dynamicists in Germany with the frequent organisation of SD
roundtables and other meetings in various German cities. The German
Chapter currently has 86 paying members and is pleased to keep more
than 200 interested researchers, managers, and students updated through
its e-mail newsletter. On June 25th/26th, the 3nd German System
Dynamics Workshop will be held in Stuttgart. The event will bring
together modellers from the scientific community and corporate practice,
offering a wide array of opportunities to exchange ideas and opinions,
and bining talks, i and modelling ises. More
information on the activities of the German Chapter is available from our
website at http://www.systemdynamics.de.
Markus Salge
markus.salge@ gmail.com
PA Consulting Group
Eschersheimer Landstra&e 223
60320 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Health Policy Special Interest Group
Poster Presentation
The HPSIG was formed in 2003 and now has more than 250 members.
Its main role is to foster the application of system dynamics to the study
of the dynamics of health systems and health-related areas. We hope to
deploy useful models and education material that will assist SD, other
computational modelers and health professionals to apply systems
thinking and modeling to improve health decisions, at the design,
planning, management, clinical and consumer level.
Our major activities are a Sunday Special Session at the ISD Conference,
circulating Snippets and a wiki and new Discussion forum
http://www.systemdynamics.org/forum/index.php as part of the SD
Society activites. There is also the Lupina Prize for student papers about
health dynamics.
148 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Chapter & SIG Poster Presentations
Peter Otto
ottop@ union.edu
Union Graduate College
410 Terrace Road
Schenectady NY 12306
USA
Evangelos Katsamakas
katsamakas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University
113 West 60th Street
School of Business 6th floor
New Y ork NY 10023
USA
Oleg V. Pavlov
opavlov@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Leonard A. Malczynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Mail Stop 0735
Albuquerque NM 87123-1350 USA
Edward G. Anderson
edward.anderson@ mecombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas
McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Station B6500
Austin TX 78712 USA
Habib Sedehi
habib.sedehi@ uniromal.it
University of Rome
La Sapienza
Via Rubra 246
00188 Rome
Ttaly
Akira Uchino
uchino@ isc.senshu-u.ac.jp
School of Commerce, Senshu University
2-1-1 Higashimita Tamaku
Kawasaki 214-8580
Japan
Information Science and Information Systems
Special Interest Group Poster Presentation
The Information Science and Information Systems Special Interest
Group (iSIG) was created with the objective of advancing the application
of system dynamics to information science and information systems
related problems. iSIG is oriented to encourage research, networking and
advocacy within the system dynamics community and in other academic
and professional communities that focus on information science and
information systems research and practice. Members of iSIG have been
involved in a virtual conversation about an interchange language
definition (X MILE or Model Interchange Format) to be able to translate
models between simulation software. This year the iSIG round table will
promote a conversation about the current status of Information Science
and Information Systems research supported by System Dynamics.
Inter- and Intranational C onflict
Special Interest Group Poster Presentation
Recent activities from the SIG: papers, conferences, presentations.
SY stem Dynamics Italian Chapter (SY DIC)
Poster Presentation
SY stem Dynamics Italian Chapter (SY DIC) Annual Report will describe
the activities, both in accademic and consulting/enterprise area,
developed from July 2008 to June 2009 by members of the Chapter.
Japan Chapter
Poster Presentation
System Dynamics history in Japan commenced in 1960s; several
textbooks of Industrial Dynamics were published in those days. After
that, many researchers used System Dynamics in their own field
individually for about 30 years. Thereafter, System Dynamics
researchers gathered and founded Japan Chapter of International System
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 149
Chapter & SIG Poster Presentations
Gloria Pérez Salazar
gloria perez@ itesm.mx
Tecnologico de Monterrey
Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
Av Eugenio Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL
Mexico
Jill H. Slinger
j.h.slinger@ tbm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5
2628 BX Delft
Netherlands
Dynamics Society in 1990. Since then, Japan Chapter held The
Intemational System Dynamics Conference 1995 hosted by Gakushuin
University in Tokyo. The chapter members assembled their best minds
and finished it successfully. In 2006, Japan Chapter had over one
hundred chapter members. As Research activities, Japan Chapter
publishes an annual journal and holds regular research meetings and
symposiums. In 2007, we held three research meetings including one
conference. In particular, the conference was the most important events
not only for the chapter but also for the public. The recent theme of the
public symposium is “Intemal Control and System Dynamics” The
conference had many participants including public people. We always
welcome System Dynamics members or users who visit Japan. Several
System Dynamics researchers have already had meetings hosted by
Japan Chapter. Contact with our office is greatly appreciated.
Latin America Chapter
Poster Presentation
The Latinamerican Chapter has the mission to help the SD-community
grow in the Spanish speaking countries. Founded in 2003, it has
Latinamerican members from Mexico to Chile, from Spain and a
growing number of Spanish speakers living in other countries. Since
2003, the annual meeting allows practitioners to gather and newcomers
to get in to touch; we have been in Mexico, Chile, Colombia and
Argentina so far. Since 2005, the Spanish “Revista de Dinamica de
Sistemas” publishes two numbers per year. The “sisTEMAS” newsletter
and a mail list allow keeping in touch. During October, the 6th
Latinamerican Conference took place in Santiago de Chile, organized by
University of Talca, Adolfo Ibafez University, Diego Portales
University and Andrés Bello University. The next Latinamerican
conference will take place in Santa Marta Colombia during October
2009. If you would like to join us please contact Gloria Perez Salazar
(gloria.perez@ itesm.mx), Isaac Dyner (idyner@ unalmed.edu.co) or
Martin Schaffernicht (martin@ utalca.cl).
Special Interest Group on Model Analysis
(SIG-MA) Poster Presentation
The Special Interest Group on Model Analysis (SIG-MA) focuses on the
development, use and advancement of formal model analysis methods in
System Dynamics. These methods currently include: Pathway
Participation Metric, Ford’s Behavioural Analysis and Eigenstructure-
based methods, amongst others. The focus of this group is not so much
on the validity of model equations as, given the equations, how can they
best be analyzed and interpreted hack to reality. The activities of SIG-
MA include facilitating communication amongst model analysts by
moderated listserve discussions. These focus on theoretical
developments as well as improving the means of communication of
analysis results. We are expanding our activities to the further
development of tools for model analysis and clear communication of
150 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Chapter & SIG Poster Presentations
Seema Arif
drarif00@ yahoo.com
University of Central Punjab
461-G3 Johar Town
Lahore 54600
Pakistan
Ijaz Yusuf
ijaz_y@ hotmail.com
Quality Circle Institute
Suite No 7 3rd Floor Gulshan Plaza
Opposite Karim Buksh Near Moon Market
Allama Iqbal Town Lahore
Pakistan
David W. Lounsbury
dlounsbu@ aecom.yu.edu
Einstein College of Medicine, Y eshiva
1300 Mormis Park Avenue
Belfer 1302F
Bronx NY 10461
SA
Ralph L. Levine
leviner@ msu.edu
Michigan State University
1954 Riveria Drive
East Lansing MI 48823
USA
their use (and benefits) in applications. The SIG-MA is open to all
system dynamicists interested in formal analysis. Please contact Jill
Slinger (j-h.slinger@ tudelft.nl) to join our listserve
(sdsigma@listserv.tudelft.nl).
Pakistan C hapter
Poster Presentation
Pakistan Chapter is a small community comprising 15 members. It was
founded in 2005 and since then it has been working to promote SD
thinking and practice among the students, practitioners and the academia.
An SD course was started at University of Management and Technology,
Lahore, Pakistan, which had an enrolment of 20 students. Basics of
System Dynamics methodology and simul. were
introduced to the students through the SD course. A meeting with the
faculty was arranged with Dr. Khalid Saeed as he was visiting Pakistan.
The purpose of the meeting was to 1) introduce concepts and
applications of the System Dynamics; and 2) invite more faculty and
academia to contribute to the development of a community of system
dynamics researches and practitioners. Two papers were contributed in
Intemational conferences last year, one in Pakistan and the other in
Dubai. The same is intended this year. In future the Pakistan Chapter
looks forward to translate books in Urdu as well as publish some basic
books to introduce system dynamics to students as well as the public.
The publi will include ions from Pak members of the
System Dynamics international community. We also intend to develop
website for System Dynamics.
Psychology Special Interest Group
Poster Presentation
The Psychology SIG is a venue for discourse and learning about ways of
integrating psychological processes into system dynamics models and to
apply system dynamics methodology to the formation of psychological
theories. Currently there are approximately 40 members. With respect to
the development and application of system dynamics modeling,
members share the following aims: (1) Include psychological and social
constructs and processes in more classical system dynamics models,
where such constructs and processes would help in understanding the
underlying dynamic problem of interest; (2) Develop new molecules or
mini-models of psychological processes to promote deeper
ing of existing psych ial and behavioral theories and to
generate new theories of psychosocial and behavioral dynamics; (3)
Apply system dynamics modeling to a wide range of clinical problems to
improve individual and family therapies, group interventions, dyadic
interaction analyses. For more information about the Psychology SIG,
please visit our WikiSD:Psychology:
http://systemdynamics.org/wiki/index.php/W ikiSD :Psychology.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 151
Chapter & SIG Poster Presentations
Bayram Annakov
bayram.annakov@ gmail.com
Empatika
Profsoyuznaya Str Bldg 55 Flat 59
Moscow
Russia
Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegi@ tecnun.es
Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia
Spain
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose.j.gonzalez@ uia.no
University of Agder
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway
Christian W eitert
cweitert@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
University of Mannheim
Schloss Industrieseminar
68131 Mannheim
Germany
Russian Chapter
Poster Presentation
This poster summarizes all SD-related activities held in Russia by
Russian Chapter of SDS. The poster will consist of the following
sections: 1. System dynamics in Education 2. Systems thinking and
system dynamics application to solving real-world problems 3. What is
planned for next year.
Security Special Interest Group
Poster Presentation
Security is a broad field that affects to several systems. However,
Security presents some common features in all these systems: It is a
system that evolves over time, including technical and social variables.
These characteristics make System Dynamics a very powerful
methodology for its analysis and research. The incipient Special Interest
Group on Security is still immature, but has already provided its first
promising results, through the edition of several collaborative papers and
project proposals. Some researchers from this group will also develop a
projecta about crisis in European energy sector during 2009 an 2010.
Student Chapter
Poster Presentation
The Student Chapter of the System Dynamics Society aims at building a
network of Ph.D. students who are interested in system dynamics, and
the chapter tries to enable fruitful discussions within this network. The
objective is to foster the exchange of ideas among new and more
advanced students and provide help with concerns and questions
regarding students’ research. During the past nine years, the Student
Chapter organized the Ph.D. Colloquium at the International System
Dynamics Conference. On the Sunday before the conference, students
have the opportunity to present the current state of their work and
receive feedback from other students, practitioners, and professors in a
constructive and pleasant atmosphere.
152 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Chapter & SIG Poster Presentations
Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de
University of St. Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
9000 St Gallen Switzerland
Thomas Beck
thomas.beckl @ bluewin.ch
Swiss Re
Zurlindenstrasse 50
CH-8003 Zurich Switzerland
Brian C. Dangerfield
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford
Salford Business School CORAS
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford M5 4WT
UK
Christina Spencer
christina@ strategydynamics.com
Global Strategy Dynamics Ltd
PO Box 314
Princes Risborough Bucks HP27 0XB
UK
Swiss Chapter
Poster Presentation
The Swiss Chapter of the System Dynamics Society consists of
researchers, educators, consultants, and practitioners in corporate and
public sectors. Approximately 140 people receive our e-mails and about
twenty of them are full members who pay the membership fee. The
number of participants in chapter meetings is relatively constant at
around ten. Additional activities involve enhancing consulting
and educational Chapter meetings are organized
where we usually combine a presentation about System Dynamics in
action with the discussion of organizational, chapter-related issues. In
addition, the Swiss Chapter organizes several PhD round tables each
year at different locations. At these meetings, PhD students of
Switzerland who apply System Dynamics and related disciplines in their
research have the opportunity to present and discuss their projects and
obtain feedback from senior researchers and peers. With such a structure,
we try to maximize the benefits for our chapter members. The value
added by the Chapter's activities lies in the provision of networking,
learning and exchange opportunities.
United Kingdom Chapter
Poster Presentation
The UK Chapter have regular meetings in the UK and annually at the
international conference venue. (See www. systemdynamics.org.uk) This
year we held our 11th Annual Gathering at London South Bank
University. Co-hosted with the SD + Study Group of the UK OR Society,
it proved a great success (53 attendees). The theme was “System
Dynamics: the client perspective”. The first aftemoon consisted of
presentations with clients there to offer their views on SD as a method of
policy analysis. The organisations involved were the Refrigeration
Corporation of Cleveland (Ohio), Bristol Water and the Ministry of
Justice. A buffet dinner followed in the evening. We held our 2nd PhD
Colloquium on the following moming with a number of student poster
presentations. Our evening networking events have continued. These are
an informal means of renewing acquaintances as well as meeting new
faces. This Spring we are planning one outside of London in the NW of
England. If you are based in the UK and not already on our membership
list (membership is free) then please do join us and see what we have to
offer. There are between 80 and 100 members active in SD in the UK.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 153
Workshops and Workshop Series
Individual Workshops
Michael Bean
mbean@ forio.com
Forio Business Simulations
400 Spear Street #120
San Francisco CA 94105
USA
John Sterman
jsterman@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142
USA
Michael Bean
mbean@ forio.com
Forio Business Simulations
400 Spear Street #120
San Francisco CA 94105
SA
Andrei Borshchev
andrei@ xjtek.com
XJ Technologies
49 Nepokorennykh Ave Office 410
St Petersburg 195220
Russia
Timofey Popkov
tim@ xjtek.com
XJ Technologies
49 Nepokorennykh Ave Office 410
St Petersburg 195220
Russian Federation
Online Industry Case Simulations from the MIT
Sloan School of Management
The MIT Sloan School of Management is launching a series of
competitive web simulations game designed to be used at universities
and by individuals around the world. The simulations will be provided
by MIT Sloan at no charge to any universities, students, or faculty as part
of MIT Sloan Teaching Innovation Resources (MSTIR) program. These
industry evolution simulators portray the growth and competition of
firms as industries evolve and can represent a variety of different
industries. This workshop will provide participants who bring their wifi-
enabled laptops with the opportunity to run two of the simulations in this
series. Professor John Sterman of the MIT Sloan School of Management,
assisted by Michael Bean from Forio Business Simulations facilitate the
play of the simulators and discuss how these simulation and user
interfaces were developed, what the design challenges were, and what
the process for building the simulation was.
How to Easily Get Y our Vensim, Powersim, or
iThink simulation on the Web using Forio
Forio has a new product that allows modelers to create simulations on
the Web with no programming or HTML. These tools have made
creating web interfaces to system dynamics models simpler and
inexpensive. During this workshop, Michael Bean will demonstrate how
to create web simulations, discuss commonly occurring web simulation
design challenges and potential solutions, and show examples of web
simulations that have been used by thousands of users. Michael will also
provide a series of guidelines for creating simulations online. After the
workshop, participants will have the tools and information they need to
put there own simulations online.
Getting Started With A nyL ogic Software
During this workshop we will introduce AnyLogic - a multi-method
simulation tool supporting System Dynamics, Agent Based and Discrete
Event modeling. We will build an agent based model, a system dynamics
model and combine them into one. New features of AnyLogic 6.4 will
also be demonstrated; SD array editor, full-featured converter form
VenSim(TM), SD tools palette, view areas, and other. A CD with
AnyLogic trial version will be given to everybody. Y ou can bring your
laptop and follow the presenter, or just watch. AnyLogic workshops
usually include discussion on how Agent Based modeling is used in
practice.
154 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Workshops and Workshop Series
Joanne C. Egner
jegner@ iseesystems.com
isee systems inc
31 Old Etna Road Suite 7N
Lebanon NH 03766
Jeremy Merritt
jmerritt@ iseesystems.com
isee systems
31 Old Etna Road Suite 7N
Lebanon NH 03766
USA
Joanne C. Egner
jegner@ iseesystems,com
isee systems inc
31 Old Etna Road Suite 7N
Lebanon NH 03766
Karim J. Chichakly
kchichakly@ iseesystems.com
isee systems inc
31 Old Etna Road Suite 7N
Lebanon NH 03766
USA
Diana Fisher
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School
7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008
USA
Creating simulations for the web with iThink &
STELLA
This workshop is intended for new or current iThink and STELLA users
who want to share models online. Using iThink and STELLA,
participants will create a web interface to a model and publish it online
with the isee NetSim wizard - no HTML programming required! The
session will be conducted as a hands-on workshop and will include
guided instruction for creating an interface to a model, publishing
models online with isee NetSim and editing models that have already
been published. Participants are 1 to bring their own models
for publishing and sharing with others online. Please bring a computer
with STELLA oriThink Version 9.1 and isee NetSim installed or arrive
15 minutes early to install the software.
Getting Started with STELLA and iThink
This workshop will be an introduction to building and communicating
system dynamics models using STELLA or iThink software. The
workshop is intended for people who are relatively new to the field or do
not have experience using the current version of STELLA or iThink. The
session will be conducted as a hands on workshop and demonstrate basic
techniques for building, analyzing and communicating simple simulation
models. Participants should bring their own computers with STELLA or
iThink Version 9.1 installed or arrive 15 minutes early to install the
software.
Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First
Course
Modeling Dynamics Systems: Lessons for a First Course provides a set
of materials that enable educators at the secondary and college levels to
teach a one-semester or one-year course in System Dynamics modeling.
These lessons are also useful for trainers in a business environment. A
new chapter dealing with material and information delays will be
discussed. Developed for beginning modelers, the lessons contained in
this book can be used for a core curriculum or for independent study.
Systems thinking software like STELLA offers an opportunity to create
visual models that actively engage students in the study of a wide variety
of problems. Creating a model allows for real- time analysis of dynamic
behavior and a more stimulating environment in which to glean insight.
The lessons include some of the classic System Dynamics problems
(population change, resource inability, drug phan kinetic:
spread of an epidemic, urban growth, supply and demand, and more).
Developed over 16 years, the lessons in this book provide an easy-to-use
set of teaching materials that are paced gently enough for novice
modelers. Students learn to create progressively more sophisticated
models, testing their structures as they proceed. Feedback analysis is
integral to the lessons.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 155
Workshops and Workshop Series
Alan K. Graham
alan.k.graham@ alum.mit.edu
PA Consulting Group
68 Allen Street
Lexington MA 02421
USA
Michelle Henley
mrledet@ mfg-game.com
The Manufacturing Game
7702 FM 1960 East Suite 226
Humble TX 77346
USA
Winston P. Ledet
wpledet@ mfg-game.com
Ledet Enterprises, Inc.
7702 FM 1960 East Suite 226
Humble TX 77346
USA
Peter S. Hovmand
phovmand@ wustl.edu
How to Write a Good SD Paper
A full afternoon of lecture, discussion and exercises, evenly divided
between doing SD work that supports good papers, and paper-writing
heuristics. The intend audience is student and consultants, and the
material applies equally to thesis work and single paper publication. The
material is based on everything it took for the presenter to make the
transition from a not particularly gifted writer to someone with a
reasonable publications record, and never having had an article
submission turned down. (Except one, and we'll talk about it.) The
workshop gives quantitative guidelines where feasible to tell the writer
"what's likely to be good enough". The offering is a refinement of last
year's well-received workshop.
The Manufacturing Game
The Manufacturing Game is an interactive board game that stresses
defect elimination as a means to attain reliability of equipment and
processes. The game grew out of a System Dynamics model created at
DuPont in the 1980's.
Sharpening Soft Skills for Group Modeling
Workshop
Washington University in St Louis
George Warren Brown School of Social Work
One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196 It has often been noted in publications and at conference that as a field,
Saint Louis MO 63130 we could do more to increase our soft skills as modelers. Issues range
USA from working effectively with groups and being better listeners to
dealing more effectively with conflict and issues related to power
differences within groups and human diversity. While these issues are
arguably present in some way within every human interaction, they
become more pronounced when we focus on persistent social problems
and begin to work with more diverse and marginalized stakeholders.
Drawing on the diversity of participants attending the session, this
workshop aims to develop advanced skills for facilitating and managing
group conflicts. The workshop will be highly interactive and focused on
preparing and expanding the range of system dynamicists in working
with groups.
Rick Kossik
rkossik@ goldsim.com
GoldSim Technology Group
300 NE Gilman Blvd Suite 100
Issaquah WA 98027
USA
Getting Started with Goldsim
This workshop will be an introduction to building simulation models
using GoldSim. GoldSim differs from traditional system dynamics
approaches in that 1) it puts much greater emphasis on probabilistic
i hni to support ion of uncertain and/or
stochastic systems; and 2) it provides a wide variety of specialized model
156 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Workshops and Workshop Series
Leonard A. Malezynski
lamalez@sandia. gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Mail Stop 0735
Albuquerque NM 87123-1350
USA
Imrana A. Umar
imrana.umar@powersimsolutions.com
Powersim Solutions
585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon VA 20170
USA
Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
imartinez@anl.gov
Argonne National Laboratory
9700 S Cass Ave Bldg 900 DIS.
Argonne IL 60439
USA
James Melhuish
jamesmelhuis@gmail.com
BAE Systems
82 Harvard Street
Newtonville MA 02460-2232
USA
objects (beyond stocks, flows and converters) in order to make models
less abstract (and hence more transparent) and help represent processes
and events that cannot easily be represented using a traditional system
dynamics approach. The workshop is intended for people who do not
have experience using GoldSim. The session will be conducted as a
hands-on workshop and will demonstrate basic techniques for building
simple simulation models. The key differences between GoldSim and
traditional SD tools will be illustrated. GoldSim’s capabilities for
modeling stochastic and uncertain systems, and for superimposing
discrete events on i systems will be Participants
should bring their own ip and are to load an
evaluation version of GoldSim prior to the workshop. Otherwise, they
must show up one half hour early to load the software. The workshop
will be of value even if you only watch without a computer.
Getting Started with Powersim Studio Software
The workshop will introduce beginners to Powersim Studio. It will begin
with preparing the Studio model environment and end with a simple but
working model. It will also introduce beginning modelers to sources of
information within the Studio modeling community.
System Dynamics Model Documentation Tool
(SDM-Doc)
The System Dynamics Model Documentation Tool (SDM-Doc)
developed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) creates HTML-based
documentation of models created with Vensim. The model
documentation created by the SDM-Doc tool allows modelers to
navigate through model equations in a very efficient and practical way.
This tool was created expanding on Oliva's (2002) work on HTML
model documentation. The tool will be presented using several examples
of how to use it.
Learning with Memorable Dynamic
Experiments and Real Data
This workshop teaches the art of creating dynamic experiments that
involve an audience, and translating those experiments into working
simulation models. The dynamic experiment is brief, exciting,
memorable, and involves workshop participants. Behavior data is
captured “real time” for later use. The audience discusses their
observations of the experiment and their understanding of the data. A
dynamic hypothesis is elicited from the audience and a simulation model
created “on the spot” with help from participants to reproduce the
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 157
Workshops and Workshop Series
Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6
5020 Bergen
Norway
Dennis Powell
drpowell@ lanl.gov
Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663, MS F609
Los Alamos NM 87545
USA
Rene LeClaire
yil@lanl.gov
Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663 Mail Stop F604
Los Alamos NM 87545
USA
Aldo Zagonel
aazagon@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137
USA
Kim D. Warren
kwarren@ london.edu
London Business School
Two Farthings Aylesbury Rd
Monks Risborough BUCKS HP27 0JS
England
observed dynamics. The motivation is to remove the mystery of
simulation from people who have not (themselves) created simulation
models. We want to involve people in experimentation and simulation,
instead of having “dry” uninvolving presentations about modeling.
Optimization under uncertainty in SD models
People have difficulties making good decisions in the presence of
uncertainty and in nonlinear dynamic systems. When these challenges
are combined, decision problems get even worse. The workshop gives an
introduction to optimization under uncertainty in such systems. This is
normally a very complex undertaking. However, it has been greatly
simplified by the new software SOPS from Powersim Software. A fter
the introduction, participants get hands-on experience with SOPS.
Modular Programming in System Dynamics
This workshop will lay the foundation for effective modular system
dynamics model development and use. Programming in modules is
standard practice for modem computer languages. System dynamics
embraces the notion of molecules of exemplar code formulation, but
such code fragments are fundamentally different from modules. Modules
separate domains and encapsulate the module operations. They offer
interfaces to other modules and promote code reuse, a powerful
productivity multiplier. Conventional system dynamics models are
typically complex, dense, with intertwined domain elements. They can
be difficult to maintain and often hard to understand by any but the
original developer. This workshop will provide methods and tools to
alleviate these issues via adoption of modular software development
practices. The workshop is presented in two sessions. In the first,
participants will leam techniques for modularization, and the underlying
prerequisites. In the second session, advanced applications that
emphasize statistical analysis of models will be discussed and
demonstrated. While the examples and tools demonstrated in the
workshop are specific to Vensim®, the concepts are generic and can be
applied to any system dynamics language. Participants will receive a
courtesy copy of the “Conductor” tool, especially developed to automate
this approach. This workshop is appropriate for experienced system
developers familiar with Vensim®.
Fun Learning with the World Football
Challenge Team Game
Groups of 3-4 people compete in a new competitive paper-based game
that gives a fun introduction to some system dynamics principles. Teams
manage the strategy over 8-12 years of major football clubs, such as
Manchester United and Real Madrid competing in a fantasy world
league. Good strategy develops a team of the right size and experience,
and with good morale and team cohesion, and this leads to both success
in the competition and growing financial capital.
158 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Workshops and Workshop Series
J. Chris White
jewhite@ viasimcorp.com
viaSim
519 Interstate 30 #247
Rockwall TX 75087
Robert Sholtes
rsholtes@ simblox.com
SimBLOX LLC
The Beer Game on Steroids: Do You Have What
It Takes to Fix This Mess?
We have a massive supply chain in a heap of trouble. Do you have what
it takes to fix it? Participants will be broken into small teams, each with
their own copy of the supply chain simulation to manipulate. Teams will
compete against each other and against the "optimized" solution to see
who has the best approach. So bring your A game. This is similar to the
popular Beer Game, but greatly expanded. Knowledge of the lessons of
the Beer Game is helpful, but not required. Plan to have fun. Don't come
if you're a whiner.
Education Workshop Series
Lees N. Stuntz Masterful Classes K- Graduate
stuntzin@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange SUMMARY
27 Central Street
Acton MA 01720
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 318 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222
Tracy Benson
Lbenson@ watersfoundation.org
Waters Foundation
6420 E Broadway Blvd
Suite A100 Pima Regional Support Ctr
Tuscon AZ 85710
SA
Anne LaVigne
a.lavigne@ watersfoundation.org
Pima County Regional Support Center
Waters Foundation
6420 E Broadway Blvd Suite A-100
Tucson AZ 85710
The Masterful Classes K- Graduate is a series of six one-hour
workshops. Morning workshops include the first three out of six
workshops highlighting examples of good teachers presenting system
dynamics lessons from early elementary school through high school
school. The teachers in this session are all K-12 educators experienced in
the use of system dynamics in the classroom. (1): How 6-year olds lean
System Dynamics ABCs; (2): Stocks and Flows in the Middle School
Classroom; (3): Models for Use in Advanced Algebra: Lessons on Drug
Dynamics. Afternoon workshops include presentations by three
professional system dynamicists who have thought a great deal about
teaching in the field and who have been recognized by students and
colleagues as master teachers. Topics will feature describing the power
of interdisciplinary modeling using system dynamics; exploring the joys
of tiny concept models; and focusing on urban dynamics. The aim of
each of the three afternoon sessions is a self-contained class teaching
something interesting and useful about the real world and something
interesting and useful about modeling skills and the system dynamics
approach.
K-12 (1): How 6-year olds learn System
Dynamics ABC's (Accumulations, Behavior-
over-time, Circular C ausality)
Workshop participants will experience primary school (ages 6 through 8)
lessons designed to teach some of the basics of system dynamics. The
lessons will be taught using hands-on techniques, visual tools and
computer modeling. Student work, classroom video clips and testimonies
from guest elementary teachers will be used to illustrate how students
respond to the lesson. The workshop will conclude with a whole group
discussion driven by lessons leamed from teaching system dynamics to
young children. The workshop will be one hour long.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 159
Workshops and Workshop Series
Rob Drsiien K-12 (2): Stocks and Flows in the Middle School
quaden@ aol.com
Carlisle Public Schools Classroom
6 McIntosh Road
Chelmsford MA 01824 Workshop participants will engage in hands-on activities that the
USA presenters use in fifth and eighth grade classrooms. The activities help
Alan Ticotsky students become familiar with system dynamics principles and
ticotsky@ ren.com applications through active and entertaining games and simulations. The
Carlisle Public Schools presenters are co-authors of the two book series "The Shape of Change"
11 Mason Street and several articles available on the Creative Leaming Exchange
Lexington MA 02421 website. One hour long.
USA
Diana Fisher K-12 (3): Models for Use in Advanced Algebra:
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School . . . . E F
7405 SW Cresmoor Drive Advanced Algebra is a course ripe with topics for modeling experiments.
Beaverton OR 97008 Those functions that tend to work well using the STELLA software are
USA linear, exponential, quadratic, and sinusoidal. Starting with just linear
and exponential functions, which are usually covered in the first
semester of an advanced algebra class, an interesting application, the
study of drug dynamics, is easily within the reach of all students, by mid-
year. The lessons start with just exponential functions but become more
interesting when both linear and exponential model segments are
combined to model different drug dynamics. I make it clear to the
students from the beginning that we will study therapeutic drugs, such as
antibiotics or aspirin, so they (and their parents) do not misinterpret the
lessons. The set of models that will be presented have been used in a
high school math class, but could easily apply to a health or biology
class. Participants should bring a laptop computer, if possible, so they
can build the models the students build, during the workshop. A CD with
a workshop version of the STELLA software will be provided, as will
the first lesson handout used with students. This workshop will be one
hour long.
George P. Richardson Masterful Classes - Graduate
ay ara aig (three one-hour workshops)
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 318 Rockefeller College This workshop will be presented by three professional system
Albany NY 12222 dynamicists who have thought a great deal about teaching in the field
USA and who have been recognized by students and colleagues as master
Andrew Ford teachers. The aim of each of the three sessions in this workshop is a self-
forda@ mail.wsu.edu contained class teaching something interesting and useful about the real
Washington State University world and something interesting and useful about modeling skills and the
Environmental Science system dynamics approach. The teachers will strive to make these
PO Box 644430 “masterful classes.” Andy Ford from Washington State University will
Bullmen: WA 99164-4430 describe the power of interdisciplinary modeling using system dynamics.
The talk begins with stories from the work on boom towns in the west
and on electric utility problems during the 1970s-80s, and moves to a
160 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Workshops and Workshop Series
J. Bradley Morrison
bmorriso@ brandeis.edu
Brandeis University
19 Fox Run Road
Bedford MA 01730
A
classroom example on salmon populations of the Columbia and Snake
Rivers. Brad Morrison from Brandeis International Business School will
explore the joys of tiny concept models. Beginning with
conceptualization and continuing to formulation, we will interactively
develop and then analyze a tiny model. George Richardson from the
University at Albany will present a class focusing on urban dynamics,
interactively developing a small model in which the classic urban
dynamics pattern emerges naturally, almost magically.
STEM Workshop Series
Michael Richey Creating an Open Innovation Network to
michael.c.richey@ boeing.com :
The Boeing Company. Address Key STEM Education and Workforce
Christopher Roe Issues
chris.roe@ bhef.com
Business- Higher Education Forum
2025 M Street NW Suite 800
Washington DC 20036
USA
Hernando A lex Sanchez
alex_sanchez@ raytheon.com
Raytheon
18 Piedmont St
Boston MA 02116
USA
Dan Sturtevant
dsturtev@ mit.edu
MIT
231 Norfolk Street #6
Cambridge MA 02139
Participants will learn about and provide feedback on a unique effort to
create an open innovation network around system dynamics models of
science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education.
Presenters will discuss ongoing activities to establish the STEM
Research & Modeling Network (SRMN) a diverse group of researchers,
modelers, policy makers, educators, and funders that has begun to
coalesce around the use of modeling. The workshop will first offer
participants and authors of the various models presented in the previous
two workshops an opportunity to discuss how learnings from any one of
the models might suggest improvements to any other of the models. At
least one-third of the workshop will be devoted to engaging participants
ina discussion of the challenges and opportunities related to creating and
sustaining the SRMN as it works to improve and make its models more
useful to the national policy debate. A critical aspect of this workshop
will be a participatory discussion of the configuration management
processes that will be implemented as members of the SRMN propose
changes to the model. And finally, the participants will learn how they
can become involved in the SRMN, and will be asked to suggest
strategies for involving more members of the modeling community.
Exploring Models of Science, Technology,
Mathematics, and Engineering (STEM)
Education in the United States - Part A
Participants in this workshop will engage in a guided exploration of two
system dynamics models related to science, technology, engineering and
mathematics (STEM) education in the United States. The first model,
developed by Raytheon systems engineers, explores potential ways to
increase the number of college graduates and teachers in the STEM
disciplines. The second model, developed by Dan Sturtevant for his
Master's thesis at MIT, explores the causes of the nearly twenty-five year
decline in the of U.S. bom earning degrees in
engineering. A fter a brief intensive introduction to the two models, the
participant will engage in exploring how these models can help to
evaluate altemative policies for improving the US education system. At
least one-third of the workshop will be devoted to interactive learning
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 161
Workshops and Workshop Series
Andjelka Kelic
sly@ mitedu
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA
Aldo Zagonel
aazagon@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137
J. Chris White
jewhite@ viasimcorp.com
viaSim.
519 Interstate 30 #247
Rockwall TX 75087
USA
Paul Newton
paul.c.newton2@ boeing.com
The Boeing Company
10718 Country Club Lane South
Seattle WA 98168
USA
Christopher Roe
chris.roe@ bhef.com
Business- Higher Education Forum
2025 M Street NW Suite 800
Washington DC 20036
USA
Kathryn D. Sullivan
sullivan.220@ osu.edu
Ohio State University
Battelle Ctr for Math & Sci Educ Pol
210 Page Hall 1810 College Road
Columbus OH 43210
USA
activities where the modelers discuss the constraints and challenges
modeling the U.S. education system and the participants share their
experience, knowledge and ideas to improve the models.
Exploring Models of Science, Technology,
Mathematics, and Engineering (STEM)
Education in the United States - Part B
Participants in this workshop will have the opportunity to engage in a
guided exploration of three system dynamics models related to science,
technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) education in the
United States. The purpose of the Sandia model is to explore the many
feedback loops influencing the attractiveness of a STEM career. The
purpose of the SimBlox model is to study the changing age
demographics of the Principal Investigator pool funded by the National
Institutes of Health. The purpose of the Boeing model is to represent the
dynamic hypothesis for the feared decline of both prosperity and the
engineering-scientific enterprise in the U.S., as discussed in the 2007
National Academies report Rising Above the Gathering Storm:
Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future. At
least one-third of the workshop will be devoted to interactive learning
activities where the modelers discuss the constraints and challenges
modeling the U.S. education system and the participants share their
experience, knowledge and ideas to improve the models.
Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh Michael Richey
mohammad.mojtahedzadeh@boeing.com —_ michael.c.richey@ boeing.com
The Boeing Company The Boeing Company
PO Box 3707 MC4A-73
Seattle WA 98124-2207
STEM Education and Workforce C hallenges:
How Can System Dynamics Improve Key
Outcomes?
This workshop will engage participants in an exploration of the potential
use of system dynamics modeling to improve our understanding of key
STEM education and workforce challenges and to explore potential
policy solutions that can strengthen student outcomes in STEM
disciplines and careers. This workshop will begin with a facilitated
discussion among participants regarding the current state of STEM
education, future employment needs in STEM occupations, and ways to
improve student interest and proficiency in STEM disciplines and
careers. A panel of experts in education will then engage participants in a
discussion regarding how systems thinking and system dynamics
modeling could assist policymakers, leaders from business and industry
and educators in examining ways to increase the number of students who
are interested and proficient in STEM disciplines and careers.
Participants will be asked to identify a range of modeling approaches
that might help address key challenges. At least one-third of the
workshop will be devoted to audience participation.
162 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Bonus Day Presentations
Stefano Armenia
stefano.armenia@ uniroma2.it
CATTID, Sapienza University of Rome
Via Pescosolido 168
00158 Rome Italy
Edoardo Mollona
emollona@ cs.unibo.it
Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Department of Computer Science
Mura Anteo Zamboni 7
40127 Bologna Italy
Habib Sedehi
habib.sedehi@ uniromal it
University of Rome
La Sapienza Via Rubra 246
00188 Rome Italy
Nicola P. Bianchi
bianchi@ ge.cnr.it
CNR-ISSIA
Via De Marini 6
Genova Italy
Andrea Marcello Bassi
ab@ millennium-institute.org
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650
Arlington VA 22201
Allyson Beall
abeall@ wsu.edu
Washington State University
344 NW Harrison St
Pullman WA 99163
USA
Andrew Ford
forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State Univ
Environmental Science
PO Box 644430
Pullman WA 99164-4430
USA
Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
silvia.ulli-beer@ psi.ch
PSI
Roethelweg 11
5303 Wuerenlingen
Switzerland
SY DIC, SY stem Dynamics Italian Chapter
SY DIC started a new path since the Nijmegen ISDC, also thanks to
innovative tools now available to members. A new website, newsletter,
forum, all have contributed to spread knowledge over the net about SD,
achieving the goal of raising new members. Practitioners, professionals
and academics can now find a way to discuss about common interests
and research. Moreover, being visible on the web with a sort of
"georeferenced" system, has provided the capability to attract newbies
close to our research or working areas. An SD-interested person can
infact access the website and "browse" the territory looking for
information on places where the SD-approach is used. The website has
been also used as a tool for e-democracy. Infact, the last SY DIC policy
council elections have been carried out by using a forum functionality
(survey) which made it possible to vote. So, the SY DIC session at the
ISDCO9 bonus-day will have the goal to let italian members spend some
time together to leam how to better use the new functionalities of the
website, and share knowledge and experiences so to build a wider
community. Also, it will be an occasion to discuss about the possibility
to constitute the SY DIC into a law-recognised institution.
Energy and Environmental Special Interest
Groups Meeting
The Environmental Special Interest Group and the Energy Special
Interest Group are hosting a semi- joint bonus day meeting. We will
begin our bonus day activity with two simultaneous sections, one
environmental, one energy. The format would include 1.5 hours for 6
presentations of people's current work, work they would like to do, or
who are perhaps looking for collaborators or feedback on project
development. The venue would be less formal than during the
conference to allow for more discussion and only requires an abstract for
consideration. We will then join the two SIGs together for a 1.5 hour
meeting to foster new ideas and collaborations in areas common to both
the environment and energy. Please send abstracts for the individual or
joint sessions to Luc Van Den Durpel, energy SIG vddurpel@listo.be
and Allyson Beall environmental SIG abeall@wsu.edu.
Luc Van Den Durpel
vddurpel@ listo.be
LISTO bvba
Groenstraat 35
9250 Waasmunster
Belgium
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 163
Bonus Day Presentations
Jeffrey Boyer
jboyer01@ nycap.rr.com
University at Albany
College of Nanoscale Science & Eng
257 Fuller Road
Albany NY 12203
USA
John Sterman
jsterman@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142
And Additional Team Members
Inculcating System Dynamics into a C orporate
Environment
Although system dynamics is a powerful tool for understanding many
aspects of business operations and strategy, anecdotal evidence suggests
corporations have been slow to recognize this value and resistant to
implementing it as part of their arsenal of problem-solving techniques.
Reasons for this are manifold, ranging from a lack of experience to a
perception that system dynamics is either "too technical" or "not
technical enough." The purpose of this workshop is to discuss
experiences and lessons leamed from successful - or unsuccessful -
integration of SD into a business. Presentations will address efforts at
introducing system dynamics into the corporate environment. The
processes used, the training, management expectations and follow-
through, and other relevant parameters and behaviors will be explored.
Follow-up discussions will be used to elucidate comparisons with the
experiences of other attendees. The outcome of this workshop may be a
summary of the lessons learned, which may be used to develop future
presentation threads or papers within the System Dynamics Society.
Copenhagen Climate Exercise
The Copenhagen Climate Exercise is a half day simulation-based role-
playing climate game that gives groups from 10-150 an experience of
reaching a global agreement to mitigate climate change. Set up as a
highly simplified "Copenhagen-2009-like" U.N. meeting, participants
play the role of delegates from India, China, the US, the EU, Brazil,
island nations, and others and work together to reach a global accord that
meets the group's goal for CO2 levels. The UN Secretary General
receives pledges from three different "blocs", asks his technical staff to
simulate them in the "C-ROADS" climate simulation, and informs
delegates of results, often sending them back for another round of
debate, strategizing, and collaboration. Overall, we've seen the
Copenhagen Climate Exercise help people quickly learn the policy-
relevant science of climate change, viscerally experience the
international dynamics, and succeed at crafting a solution to the
challenges, while taking a realistic look at the scale of changes ahead as
we shift to a low-carbon global economy. See a recent article in MIT's
Technology Review - http://www.technologyreview.com/article/21190/.
164 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Bonus Day Presentations
Leonard A. Malczynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Mail Stop 0735
Albuquerque NM 87123-1350 USA
Bill Braun
bbraun@ hithsys.com
Cleveland Clinic
3833 Kirkwood Road
Cleveland Heights OH 44121-1803 USA.
Jacob J. Jacobson
jacob jacobson@ inl.gov
Idaho National Laboratory
2525 N Fremont Avenue
Idaho Falls ID 83415-3710 USA
Imrana A. Umar
imrana.umar@ powersimsolutions.com
Powersim Solutions
585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon VA 20170 USA
Etiénne A.J. A. Rouwette
e.rouwette@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Etiénne A. J. A. Rouwette
e.rouwette@ fm.ru.nl
Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van A quinostraat 1
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Wouter J ongebreur
wouter jongebreur@ significant.nl
Significant BV
Thorbeckelaan 91
3771 ED Bameveld The Netherlands
Paul van Hooff
paul. van. hooff@ significant.nl
Significant B.V.
Mgr Westerwoudtlaau 19
3211 RW Noordioyberhout The Netherlands
Powersim Studio User Group
The Powersim Studio User Group Conference will be an opportunity for
the Studio user cc ity and invited ives from Powersim
AS and their regional representatives in Europe, Oceania, South and
North America, Asia and A frica to meet and share ideas and information.
The goal of the meeting is to learn to be better system dynamicists, aided
by Studio and to strengthen our user community. This opportunity will
include tutorials for novices and experts, paper presentations focusing on
Studio's unique capabilities and a chance to interact with Powersim AS
representatives concerning the company's vision for Studio. The tentative
agenda includes: a plenary presentation, novice and expert tutorials,
papers on Studio techniques, and hopefully a presentation on the future
of Studio. This is also an opportunity for the user community to interact
with Powersim AS representatives to express user concems and suggest
new features.
Participatory Approaches to Modeling and
Simulation
In this workshop the organizers will address a number of issues with
regard to participatory modeling. The meeting will start of with
addresses by key contributors to the literature, highlighting the state of
the art of participatory approaches and challenges for the future. The
addresses will be followed by a joint discussion on a research strategy
and collaborative research program.
Modeling in Public Policy
In this workshop the organizers will address a number of issues with
regard to participatory modeling. The meeting will start with addresses
by key contributors to the literature, highlighting the state of the art of
participatory approaches and challenges for the future. The addresses
will be followed by a joint discussion on a research strategy and
collaborative research program.
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 165
Bonus Day Presentations
Lees N. Stuntz
stuntzln@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
27 Central Street
Acton MA 01720 USA
Tracy Benson
Lbenson@ watersfoundation.org
Waters Foundation
6420 E Broadway Blvd
Suite A100 Pima Regional Support Ctr
Tuscon AZ 85710 USA
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 318 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222 USA
Diana Fisher
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School
7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008 USA
David Wheat
dwheat@ wheatresources.com
University of Bergen
Nedre Fjellsmug 6
5018 Bergen
Norway
Kaoru Yamaguchi
kaoru3@ muratopia.org
Doshisha University
521 Minamidani Aihara
Goshiki-cho Sumoto Hyogo 656-1325
Japan
Utilizing System Dynamics Expertise in K-12
Education
This moming session will focus on the coordination between system
dynamics practitioners and K-12 schools. There will be an opportunity
for practitioners to brainstorm with teachers and K-12 education
professionals to devise plans to increase the availability of SD expertise
for our K-12 schools. The outcome of the session will be a plan to go
forward with specific tasks for the coming year to increase the contact
between K-12 and SD professionals. In the two months before the ISDC,
a small list will be set up to facilitate communication amongst the
participants so that the groundwork will be laid and the four hours can be
effectively utilized.
Economic Crisis Roundtable: Sharing Models of
Problems & Policies
We will have a full-day discussion of systemic explanations and policy
options. The models presented during the morning session will focus on
how the dynamic problem(s) developed, but will not include policy
proposals for alleviating the problematic behavior. During the moming
session, audience questions and discussion will be limited to clarifying
everyone's und ding of what the are saying. The
afternoon session, in contrast, will have have a policy focus. It will be
dominated by audience input, questions, and discussion aimed at
generating a list of policies that might alleviate the problematic behavior.
Of course, the moming presenters will have some new policy structure in
mind for their respective models, and they will also be active participants
in the afternoon session. The focus of the policy-oriented discussion will
be on "where" various policy ideas might "plug in" to the respective
models presented during the moming session; i.e., what kind of
structural changes would be required in order to add the proposed
policies to those models. It is expected that all participants will take
away useful economic modeling ideas. Moreover, we expect the forum
to generate a list of practical suggestions for economic policy-makers.
166 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Index
Authors, Presenters and Facilitators
Abaunza Osorio, Felipe
Abrishamchi, Ahmad
Ackermann, Fran.
Aghajani, Amin 113
Akbarpour, Mohi id 55
Alessi, Stephen 72
Aliasgari, 6
Alvarez, Ainara. 29
Anlin, Jeff 127
An, Lianjun 0
Andersen, David F... 0 30, 31, 54
Anderson, Edward G 31, 32, 112, 134, 138, 149
Andrade, Lorenzo 73
Annakov, Bayram 152
Ansah, John Pastor. 2
Antonelli, G. 2
Arango, Santiago 3.
Arif, Seema.
Ammenia, Stefano............
Askari Tabatabaei, Mohamad Hosseii
Attridge, Joanne M. ...........
Azar, Pablo
B
Backus, George A.... soeeesnneenss 103, 127
Baker, Elisha i 5.
Ballenden, Chris 60
Balnac, Kailash 4
Bandala, Erick R. 0,
Bandlow, Alisa 74
Barlas, Y aman. ..35, 45, 90
34, 87, 135, 147, 163
:
Bayer, Steffen
Beall, Allyson
Bean, Michael
Beck, Thomas 153
Benson, Tracy... ‘i 138, 159, 166
Bernard, Michael 6
Bianchi, Nicola P.....
Bier, Asmeret
Bivona, Enzo
Black, LauraJ.......
35, 136, 147, 163
Inge L 37,50
Boettcher, Kevin .
Bog, Suat
Bokhoree, C!
, Andrei
Boudreau, Justin
Bouza, Manuel
Boyer, Jeffrey...
Brailsford, Salh
Braun, Bill
Brent, Alan C.
Brierley, Gary
Brunstein, Angela.
Bueno, Newton Paulo..
Bunger, Alicia
Bums, James R
Cc
Caicedo, Santiago
Castaneda Acevedo, Jaime Andres.
Cavalieri-D'Oro, Edoardo
Cavana, Robert Y
Ceresia, Francesco.
Chahal, Kirandeep
Chan, Shek Kiu
Chaudhari, Gaurav S.
Chavez, Regina K
Chen, Jian Hung
Chen, Yijen
Cheong, France
Chichakly, Karim J
Chikin, Lam
Choi, Eugene.
Chuang, Howard Hao-Chun...
Chumai, i
Clark, Thomas D.
Conrad, Gregory N.
Conrad, Stephen H.
Cooper, Lawton
Coser, Adriano ...........
Cox, Andrew
Cruz, Y esenia
Dai, Xin 44
Dai, Xingjie
Dangerfield, Brian C.......
61
soe 44, 94, 145, 153
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 167
Index of Authors, Presenters and Facilitators
Datta, Ravindra
Davidsen, Pal I.
Gastelum Reynoso, Gabriela G.
Geastaits, George A.
ee Michael A. Nicholas &.
, Prakash. G Navid.
penlteon Emre M. G Aref.
Derwisch, Sebastian
Di Giulio, Vincenzo
Diaz Pabon, Fabio Andrés
Dick, Marcel
Dierks, Meghan M.......
Gharibi, Mirmojtaba
Ghili, Soheil
Gil-Garcia, J. Ramon
Glass, Robert J. ....
Godbole, Saroj,
Goldsmith, Daniel
Doyle, James K
Dudley, Richard G
Duggan, David P...
Duggan, Jim
Duran Encalada, Jorge A...
Duran, Felicia A
Dutt, Varun
Dyer, James
Dykes, Katherine
Gonzalez, Cleotilde
Gonzalez, Jose J. ..
Goodwin, Andrew...
Graber-Lopez, Eric
Graham, Alan K. ..
Grasl, Oliver.
Greer, Don
Groesser, Stefan N...
, 143, 153
GréBler, Andreas. . 57, 58, 115, 142
E Guevara, Porfirio, 78
Gimeralp, Burak 58
Eberlein, Robert L. ....
Eden, Colin H
Egner, Joanne C...
El Sawah, Sondo: Hajiali Mona 59
Eldabi, Tillal
El-Tagy, Ahmed ..
Emberger, Guenter.
Hajro, Aida
Haller, Reinhard
Hansen, Jason K......
Emerson, C. Robert.
Erdil, Nadiye Ozlem...
Ted
Falsini, Diego.
Farhang Matin, Haleh
Farshchi, Mahtab
Feméndez Soto, Pedro...
Fernéndez-Lechon, Ramon.
Fiddaman, Thomas ..
Firooz, Hamid
Fischer, Mathias Markus.
Fisher, Diana.....
Florez, Ana Maria
148
50, 144, 155, 160, 166
51
Fokkinga, Brigit. 50
Ford, Andrew .35, 50, 134, 160, 163
Ford, David N. 3, 134
Foroughi, Pouyan
Forouzan, Alireza
Frances, Carol...
Franck, Travi
Franco, Carlos Jaime. 51
Franco, Sebastian 52
hiro med
G
Galicia, Luis David 2
G Pascal J. 5
Gary, Shayne 98
ld: HordurV. 111
Harbich, Thoma: 84
Hasanpoor, Ali 68
Haslett, Tim 56, 60
Hassan, Junaid 60
Heffernan, Mark. 134, 136, 137, 148
Held, E. Bruce.
Heng, Wenyu
Henley, Michelle
Herrera Daza, Sonia Cristi
Hirsch, Gary B
Ho, Y ufeng.
Homer, Jack B...... ...62, 130, 134, 141
I , 115
Houle, Brian 88
House, Jody 62
Hovmand, Peter S... 63, 104, 140, 156
Howick, Susan. 63
Howley, Enda 64,77
Hsueh, Joe Chiaojen 64
Huang, Jinjing.
Huang, Philip
Hwang, Sungjoo
Jacobs, Eric
Jacobson, Jacob J. ... a
Vishnu Vardhan 65
{em Tobias 66
Jain, Sanjay 70
Jalalian, 68
168 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Index of Authors, Presenters and Facilitators
Balaji 77
Ji, Sae-Hyun. 66
Joglekar, Nitin R. 31, 66
John, Klaus
Johnson, Curtis
Jones, Andrew
Lopez, Lui
Lounsbury, David W
Lowry, Thoma:
Loyo, Karina
Lu, Lianggang
Lubyansky, Alexander 79
Luna-Reyes, Luis F.
Lytchkina, Natalia N.
, Leonard A. .. : . 103, 134, 138, 140, 149, 157, GS
Jones, Charles A. 67
fones Mary C. 43 Lyneis, James M.
Wouter. 165 Lyneis, John
K
Kaggwa, Martin 67
Kanter, Steven L. 56 Mabry, Patricia L.
Kapmeier, Florian 148 MacDonald, Rod.
Karanfil, Ozge MacDonald, Rodel
Karl, Ute 66
kK 54, 137, 149 Mandal, Abhijit
Kazemi, Reza 6i Martin, Nelson T. ..
Kelic, Andjelka
Kennel Michael S... e
hakiba 91
‘ibe Deogratia 70
Kidde, Saul 70
Kill , William R. 71
Kim, Gyu Rim 71
King, Alan 0
Koca, Deniz 111
K i, Golda Word
Kopainsky, Birgit.
Kortelainen, Samuli....
Korzilius, Hubert 7
K i, Klaus-Peter 121, 122
Kossik, Rick 156
Koul, Saroj 73,99
Kune, Martin H. 73
Kuzenski, Dougla
Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio
Mashayekhi, Ali Naghi
Matheus, Kirsten .
Mayerthaler, Ann
Mazanov, Jason
McCardle-Keurentjes, Marleen H. F.....
McDonnell, Geoff...
McLean, Charles...
McLucas, Alan Charles
Meadows, Denni:
Medina-Borja, Alexandra
Medin-Molina, Joaquin...
Mejia, Andre:
Mejia, Gonzalo
Melhuish, Jame
Mennitt, Jeremy
Miczka, Switbert
, Stefania
Lattila, Lauri
Lauge, Ana.
LaVigne, Anne.
Lawrence, Frank...
LeClaire, Rene
Ledet, Winston P. ....
Lee, Hyun-Soo
Lee, Man-Hyung.
Lee, Tsuey-Ping.
Lehr, Christian
Lei, Kampeng
Levine, Ralph L. ...
Li, Yikang,
Linard, Keith Thoma: 76
Lindquist, Eric
Liu, Cheng-Chih
Liu, Chin-Y en Alice
Liu, Hongl:
Liu, Sheng.
Lofdahl, Corey
Lopez Malo, Aurelio. 5
Miller, David §
see DD,
62, 130, 136, 137, 148
1
Mohseni, Javaneh
Moh: dT.
Mollona, Edoardo.
Monus, Paul A
Moosavi Haghighi, M. Hashem.
Monson, J. Bradley...
Moschera, L.
Moxnes, Enling.....
Musango, Josephine Kaviti
N
Najafiyazdi, Mostafa 97
Nasr, Nikrooz 68
Newton, Paul...
Ngai, Tommy Ka K
Nguyen, Phuong Linh T:
Nilsen, Trond
Nozari, Hamed
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 169
Index of Authors, Presenters and Facilitators
0)
Ochoa, Maria Camila 51
Olaya, Yri
Oliva, Rogelio. 8
Oliveri, Giulia
Orenstein, Diane 62
Osgood, Nathaniel 89, 125
Otto, Peter 90, 137, 149
Oyo, Benedict.
Ozgiin, Onur 5, a
P
Pala, Ozge 91, 132
Palou Garcia, Enrique 5
Park, Moonseo
Parker, Geoffrey ......
Parsons, Ken
Parvizian, Jamshid 29, 91
Pate, Ron. a1
Paucar-Caceres, Alberto ..
Pavlov, Oleg V....
Pedercini, Matteo
Rockart, Scott F.
Rodriguez Valbuena, Luisa Femanda
Roe, Chri:
Romme, George:
Rouwette, Etiénne A.J.A
Roy, K. R. Divakar..
Rush, Margaret
Ryder, William
Rydzak, Felicjan.
, Alexander V.
S
..38, 46, 101, 127, 132, 138, 141
1
Saeed, Khalid i
i Abdolrahim.
Salge, Marku:
Sanchez, Hernando Alex.....
Sandu, Corina,
Sardell, Jason
Sardiwal, Sangeeta
Sarriegi, Jose Mari ..
Sawicka, A gata,
Sawin, Elizabeth.
Schaffer, Walter... geod
Martin F. G. 102, 103, 142
Peipert, John
Pérez Salazar, Gloria.
Pierson, Kawika
Schmidt, Susanne...
Schmitzer, Oliver........
William
Pioch, Nichola:
David
Poles, Roberto.
Schurer, Jennifer .....
arku:
Popkov, Timofey
Pourhabib, Arash ..
Pouris, Anastasio:
Powell, Denni:
Pruyt, Erik.
Pugh, Jack
Q
Quaden, Rob 160
Quigley, Michael 94
R
Radianti, Jaziar 95
Rafferty, Martin 95
Rahdari, Hossein 96
Hazhir 97, 114
Rahn, R. Joel 135
Atefe. 96, 97
Ramos Martins, Marcelo. 9;
Rao, Meesala Snnivasa...
Rasooli, Moh
Thanujan
Reilly, Michael
Rezhdo, Oljora
Rich, Eliot 95, 143
Richardson, George P. . 30, 31, 128, i 160, 166
Richey, Michael... 131, 161, 162
Robért, Karl Henrik...... wt
Rocha dos Santos, Joaquim. 9
Sedehi, Habib...
Seidel, Andrew
Senge, Peter M.
Severyn, Tim
. s.
Shakouri, Hamed
Shaoqi, Zhou
Sheth, Arpan
Sholtes, Robert
Simon, Martin
Sin Oih Yu, Abraham
Sipowicz, Maria
Skarin, Bruce.
Skaza, Heather.
Skorinko, Jeanine
Skribans, Valerijs
Slinger, Jill H. ..
Sotowiej, Dominil
wel
94, 106, 140, 150
aE
Soni, Sanjay
Sotaquira, Ricardo
Soto-Torres, M. Dolores.
Spencer, Christina
Spencer, Roberta L.
Stave, Krystyna A.
Sterman, John.......
"105, 107, 112
“64, 81, 107, 129, 154, 164
170 27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA
Index of Authors, Presenters and Facilitators
Steyn, Jasper L 67
Stiens, Eric. 108
i Margaret V 108
Jiirgen 109, 148
Stuntz, Lees N..
Sturges, Robert H.
Sturtevant, Dan.....
D
Subroto, Athor.
Sullivan, Kathryn D.
Sveen, Finn Olav ..
Svensson, Mats G.....
Sverdrup, Harald
Tabacaru, Mihaela....... Be
Taheri, Hossein 114
Tan, Burcu
Tavazoei, Masoud
Taylor, Robert.
Taylor, Timothy R. B......
Teekasap, Pard
Tehrani, Nasim ....
Thissen, Wil A
Ticotsky, Alan
Tignor, Warren W.....
Torres, José M.
Triantis, Kosta:
Trogdon, Justin
Tromboni Paulo 98
Tseng, Y a-tsai
Tulinayo, Fiona Penlope i
Tumer, Marcia 107
U
Uchino, Akira 149
Ullah, Aman 2
Ulli-Beer, Silvia Astrid 8, 163
Umadevi, Ganesan 65
Umar, Imrana A 157, 165
Uriona Maldonado, Mauricio. 115
Vv
Vakilian, Shirin. 113
van Bommel, Patrick 115
van Daalen, Comelia. 5
W
Walker, Keny. 60
Walrave, Bob 117
Wan, Maoyan 119
Wang, Chin-Hsueh 75
Wang, Chun-Chieh 118
Wang, Hsiao-Lin..
Wang, Hsien-Chi
Wang, Majie.
Wang, Wei Yang..
Wang, Wei-Tsong...
Wang, Wenxin. 118, 119
Wang, Yichun .
Warhoe, Stephen ..
Weitert, Christian
Wells, Brian
Wheat, David ..
White, Chris A
White, J. Chris.
Wiik, Johannes
Wile, Kristina
Williams, Ddembe W......
Williams, Helena
Winz, Ines
Wu, Yi-Yen
xX
Xiao, Jing-hua 44
Xie, Kang 44
Y
Yadma, Gautam N..
Yamaguchi, Kaoru ..
Yan, Min-Ren.
Y earworth, Mike.
Yiicel, Gonenc.
Yusuf, Vai
Yvon-Lewis, Shari
Zagonel, Aldo...
69, 83, 91, 134, 158, 162
4
van den Belt, Marjan Zainal Abidin, Norhaslinda
Van Den Durpel, Luc...... i Mehdi
van Hooff, Paul Amin. 96
van Oorschot, Kim...... Zhang, Lei
van Wassenhove, Luk Zhang, Qian
Vaneman, Warren Zimmermann, Nicole ..
Varvakis, Gregori Zmud, Robert W...
Vennix, Jac A. M. Zock, Alexander.
Verschuren, Piet.
Vidal, Elena 9
27" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 26-30, 2009 Albuquerque USA 171
