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A Strategic and Integrated A pproach to Human Issues in Air
Traffic Management (ATM)
Una Mellett
Human Resource Management Expert
Human Factors and Manpower Unit, EATMP, EUROCONTROL
96 Rue de La Fusée, 1130 Brussels, BELGIUM
Tel : 32 27293482 Fax : 32 27299149
Email : una.mellett@ eurocontrol.int
Tell me and I will forget
Show me and I may understand
Involve me and I will understand
Abstract
Learn how a collaborative process has been designed and applied using systems
thinking principles in implementing a system dynamics model to improve the
planning of air traffic controllers (ATCOs) by Air Traffic Management (ATM)
organisations. The model is called LAMPS (Long-term ATCO Manpower Planning
Simulation) and the process is called CHAMP (Collaborative and Harmonised
ATCO Manpower Planning). This paper describes the challenges faced in the
planning of ATCOs, the LAMPS tool and the CHAMP process, application, benefits
and key insights. Applying this tool and process in ATM organisations has lead to
new insights in the way ATM organisations think and manage the planning of
ATCOs to improve their business performance. One of the key benefits is that this
new perspective enables the development of integrated solutions to ATCO
Manpower Planning issues for the longer term.
Key Words
Complex, collaborative, integrated, strategic, process, decision making, air traffic
control, manpower planning.
The Challenge
In theory, the strategic objective of Air Traffic Controller (ATCO) Manpower
Planning is easy and straightforward: to ‘provide the right number of staff, with the
right qualification, at the right time and in the right place to meet business
requirements’. In practice, it is difficult to reach this objective. However, not
getting the ATCO Manpower Planning right affects the whole Air Traffic
Management (ATM) service performance. For example, a shortage of ATCOs
translates into lack of capacity, air traffic delays and time pressure on the current
ATCO workforce, leading to deteriorating working conditions, increasing delays
even further and leading to knock-on effects in neighbouring air traffic control
(ATC) sectors.
ATCO Manpower Planning is complex because:
¢ It requires balancing the number of ATCOs required with the number of
ATCOs available at any point in time in the future.
¢ As time horizons widen what will be needed in terms of Human Resources
(Manpower) and what will be available is less easy to answer due to uncertainty
of the factors involved e.g. ATCOs required for training and projects, the
number of trainees that will successfully complete their training.
* It depends on a multiple of interconnected and interdependent variables (see
Figure 1 below) which means that several things have to happen which cause
multiple effects in different parts on the system.
* Decision-making involves many participants in the ATCO Manpower Planning
process and their current understanding of the causes and effects of their actions.
¢ Decisions are required on the number of ATCOs required five years from now
rather than the number needed now influenced by a number of factors which are
difficult to determine and shorten e.g. the number of ab initios who will be
selected and who will successfully complete the training stage etc..
¢ Itis dynamic in that the cause and effect are distant in time and changes occur
at many timescales.
Traffic Volume
Figure 1 - Variables involved in ATCO Manpower Planning
Today, ATM organisations are not just faced with the decision to recruit and train
more ATCOs to cover a shortage. The factors involved have grown more complex,
for example, the challenges now include how to attract suitable young people to a
career in ATC, to cope with the challenge of an older ATCO population adapting to
new technology and automation, increase in workload to meet capacity increases to
name but a few. Furthermore, in managing ATCO Manpower Planning issues
ATM organisations need to make decisions about the future which is full of
uncertainty. Past experience has shown that in many cases ATM organisations
response to uncertainty about the future has lead to :
* Quick fixes and short timeframe: In many situations only short-term solutions
are designed and implemented in response to ATCO shortage or surplus. For
example, many ATM organisations are now suffering the impact of a “go and
stop” approach to recruiting and training ATCOs in the 1980s. Even today, this
is still not a fully abandoned practice. In addition, the planning timeframe is
usually a five year window. Five years is too short to see the impact of
decisions when it takes at least four years to recruit and train an ATCO.
¢ Isolated Decisions; ATCO Manpower Planning consists of discussions
(perhaps cross-functional) supported by various number-crunching analyses.
Management and staff at the functional level - Human Resources (HR),
training, operations (Ops) - put their respective plans together to meet the
demand for future ATCOs. However, these plans do not communicate in
operational terms how the various functions of the ATM organisation work in
isolation or together. For example, getting a picture of the number of ATCOs
available at any point in time requires an understanding of the in-flow, through-
flow and out-flow of ATCOs as shown in Figure 2 overleaf. These activities
are managed by processes such as recruitment and selection, training, licensing,
competency checking, personal and career development and usually considered
separately. The consequences it that major opportunities for synergy go
untapped.
Consequently, as an ATM organisation faces these future challenges, they confront
a deeper dilemma. How to strike a balance between prediction (believing that they
can see past uncertainties) and paralysis (letting the uncertainties freeze them into
inactivity)?
A Strategic and Integrated Approach
To support ATM organisations in managing future uncertainty in the planning of
ATCOs a strategic and integrated tool set has been developed based on systems
thinking principles and system dynamics modelling which includes:
* along-term simulation tool called LAMPS (Long Term ATCO Manpower
Planning Simulation) and
* acollaborative process called CHAMP (Collaborative and Harmonised
ATCO Manpower Planning).
LAMPS Tool
(Details on the simulation output from the LAMPS tool are provided in a
separate paper i.e. Cees Niesing’s : “Air Traffic Controller Manpower
Planning Modelling”)
LAMPS is a simulation tool which models all variables influencing the in-flow,
through-flow and out-flow of ATCOs over time. LAMPS also models the factors
influencing the relationship between traffic demand and ATCOs required. LAMPS
can simulate these variables over a fifteen-year time frame. LAMPS also has a PC
based gaming interface (allowing variables to be changed during the 15 year
timeframe) and uses graphs and tables to show results. LAMPS is based on system
dynamics concepts and runs under VENSIM (VENtana SIMulator) software.
LAMPS makes the complex process of matching air traffic demand and having
adequate ATCOs available more transparent by providing a platform to examine
how the various factors influencing ATCO Manpower Planning interact over time
and to understand how these factors behave in response to changing circumstances.
This can be achieved by :
1. Configuring data in LAMPS to reflect an ATM organisation's ATC
environment (i.e. number of sectors, traffic growth, rostering policy ).
2. Setting up scenarios which can be modelled over a defined timeframe. This
requires decisions on what variables may change over time, like traffic increase.
3. Reviewing the results to view various graphs, reports, tables which illustrate the
result of decisions (e.g. on ATCOs required and ATCOs available) and to
evaluate / compare different scenarios.
Inflow
Recruitment Selection
Medeal oe?
soa — tae — PEE — a — ay =
Chocks rm
oleae
Trating
Licensing Training ies
Unplanned
Unit Initial = Acmission for Sickness
lined Trang anng "Trig sheuaben
arc requests
Throughflow Outflow
Normal Career Competency Checking Career Paths
Prot
cmos — rig ee
Figure 2 - ATCOs Available - inflow, throughflow and outflow process
CHAMP Process
To implement the LAMPS tool in an ATM organisation and to realise the maximum
benefits of providing a "modelling and simulating for leaming" platform, LAMPS
needed to be embedded within a collaborative process - CHAMP -. The CHAMP
process aims to bring various managers / experts together (e.g. operations, manpower
planners, HR, training) to think creatively yet systematically about possible future
environments, to develop scenarios, devise and evaluate strategic options for ATCO
Manpower Planning and decide on implementation actions. The CHAMP process
consists of six stages as outlined in Figure 3:
Process
Activity
Output
oo
P Stage 1: ae
Contributors 9 *Collect Data aA
i Prepare LAMPS
—> ive -} «Analyse Results
‘urrent *Draft Report D0 Nothing Situation"
Situation Review Meeting Report
:
Stage 2: *Setting the Scene
cHaMP + Agenda Setting
Facilitator Assess + Business Idea
Future + Identify Driving Forces
0 yarn information Challenges * Scenarios Generation Scenarios of
'
AE Stage 3: + Assess Implications
WF e repare LAMPS
HW \ Identify nalyse Results
U call Long Term raft Report
CHAMP Functional Process Impact + Review Meeting
Contacts
'
possible futures
Stage 4: + Experiment optimising
= ATCO Margin
Devise *Devise HR Strategic
er eee Alternative Options for Scenarios IS
. *Draft Report ATCO HR Strategic
Strategies + Review Meeting Options Report e
————
v e. @
Stage 5: (‘Assess impact on ' Qa
Business Idea
Evaluate |, Assess Stakeholder E
Strategies Implications :
+ Strategy Integration
ye See ATCO HR Strategic Assessment
+ k Review Meeting and Integration
Stage 6: + Draw up Action Plans for
_ short/ medium/ long term|
Decideon |, |} Risk Assessment
Actions + Contingency Actions
Needed | Controls
+ Monitoring & Feedback
Action Plan and
Monitoring / Feedback
Figure 3 - Overview of CHAMP Process
The CHAMP process requires a cross functional approach with representatives from the
relevant functional areas. This implies managing and reviewing ATCO Manpower
Planning as a system of interrelated processes to improve the ATM organisations
business and process performance. The role of the key contributors in the CHAMP
process is as follows:
CHAMP Sponsor: The CHAMP sponsor should be the ATM organisation's
management team. Management needs to be committed to implementing process
improvement plans and regards process objectives as more important than
functional objectives. Management should see Manpower Planning as a system of
related processes that are integrated and aligned to achieve the ATM organisation’s
strategic goals i.e. the provision of safe air traffic control service.
¢ CHAMP Functional Process Contacts: The functional process contacts are managers
/ expert representatives from each of the relevant functional areas and are the key
players actively participating in the six stages of the CHAMP process.
* To manage the CHAMP process effectively requires a shift in role for the manpower
planner from purely an information analyst to process owner and facilitator. The
elements to these roles are as follows:
* Process Owner: The process owner is responsible for managing, measuring and
improving the CHAMP process and representing the process in the organisation.
¢ Information analyst: This role requires gathering the relevant data to configure
in LAMPS, configuring LAMPS, simulating and drawing up results in LAMPS
and writing reports on findings and trends.
¢ Facilitator: The role of the facilitator is to help the players in the CHAMP
process when working in a group by managing the process to enable participants
to share insights. The facilitator encourages full participation, promotes mutual
understanding and fosters inclusive solutions.
Consequently, it is envisaged that at any point in time during the CHAMP process a
manpower planner may take any of these roles. How these roles are distributed
also depends on the size of the ATM organisation - e.g. these roles may be carried
out by two or more persons.
¢ IT Support: Implementing the LAMPS tool will require making interfaces with
relevant databases to retrieve statistics on ATCO data required for configuring data
in LAMPS. Consequently IT support will be needed to contribute technical
expertise when required.
Application and Customisation
To support the implementation of the LAMPS / CHAMP approach a two module
training programme has been designed. CHAMP 1 focus is on building confidence in
using the LAMPS tool and the dynamics of ATCO Manpower Planning. CHAMP 2
builds confidence and awareness in managing the CHAMP process which involves
discussions with the various players involved to ensure optimum solutions to the
number of ATCO Manpower Planning challenges. Between CHAMP 1 and CHAMP 2
participants complete a project which requires gathering and configuring data from their
respective ATM environments for the LAMPS tool.
To date the following actions are underway in implementing the LAMPS / CHAMP
approach:
¢ The LAMPS tool is currently used in the process of establishing the staffing needs
for the CEATS (Central European Air Traffic Service) Upper ATC Centre (UAC).
¢ During 2002 two representatives will be trained from each of the 8 CEATS States (
Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Italy, Slovak
Republic, Slovenia). These states can then use LAMPS / CHAMP for their national
ATCO Manpower Planning and link to CEATS UAC plans.
¢ During 2002, the LAMPS tool will be customised and the CHAMP process piloted
for the following ATM organisations: Naviair- Denmark, LVNL - The Netherlands
and Maastricht UAC, EUROCONTROL.
Benefits and Breakthroughs
By applying the LAMPS / CHAMP approach in an ATM organisation, the following
benefits can be achieved:
In the short term,
To assess and better understand the current situation on ATCO Manpower Planning
methods and their shortcomings.
To understand the long term impact of current decisions and policies on ATCO
Manpower Planning issues (e.g. ATCO requirement, ATCO available, initial
training, simulator and OJT capacity utilisation, working conditions and costs).
To generate a number of scenario options related to future challenges and to
investigate optimal strategies for ATCO availability, ATCO requirement, working
conditions and training capacity utilisation.
To gain an understanding that many ATCO Manpower Planning challenges tend to
unique to their point in time and have not been seen before under these conditions.
Thus, considering the consequences and limitations of meeting future challenges
and uncertainty on the basis of probability using prediction tables based on data
from the past and statistics.
In the medium and long term
To alleviate experiencing peaks and dips in ATCO availability and requirement and
to help establish a smoother ATCO Margin (ATCO requirement - availability) for
the longer term.
To build mutual awareness amongst the many players on ATCO Manpower
Planning issues, identify and evaluate strategic options to optimise decisions.
To enable the development of integrated solutions (e.g. operations, training and
working conditions) to ATCO Manpower Planning issues.
Insights
The LAMPS / CHAMP approach shifts the emphasis for ATCO Manpower Planning
from short term and isolated decisions to long term thinking about the future and
integrated decisions as illustrated in Figure 4.
FROM
Figure 4 - Impact of LAMPS / CHAMP approach
The key insights from applying this approach in ATM organisations is as follows:
1) Awareness: At the current initial stage of implementing the LAMPS / CHAMP
approach in ATM organisations, one key outcome is the awareness that this
approach has generated among managers and experts on the interrelationship
between the various factors involved in ATCO Manpower Planning and the
necessity to integrate the various functional activities. In addition, there is
recognition of the complexity of ATCO Manpower Planning.
2) Improved Decision Making : The LAMPS tool / CHAMP process facilitates the
decision making process. One ATM organisation has made key decisions on ATCO
Manpower Planning earlier which will have a significant impact on the long term
performance of the ATM organisation e.g. reducing a significant shortage or surplus
of ATCOs.
4) Recognition of ATCO Manpower Planning as an ongoing process : ATM
organisations have recognised that ATCO Manpower Planning is not seen as a one-
time decision but as an ongoing process. Thus, decisions on ATCO Manpower
Planning are not made once and for all but must be constantly revisited and tested.
There is no best strategy and there is no simple definitive set of decisions - “what
may seem best today may be far from optimum tomorrow”. In addition, it forces ATM
organisations to re-examine how the ATCO Manpower Planning process works, is
communicated and the roles and responsibilities of the various participants. This
shift requires management and staff to manage and think in terms of cross functional
processes that were previously invisible. This new orientation for ATCO Manpower
Planning permeates strategy, organisation, performance measures, skills, culture
and systems.
5) Tool and Process go hand in hand : A system dynamics model alone, such as the
LAMPS tool, even though it does provide awareness on the complexity of ATCO
Manpower Planning, does not make significant impact on developing a learning
environment and integrated solutions within organisations. However, by embedding
the LAMPS tool within a process such as CHAMP allows cross-functional teams to
come together provides the true realisation of the benefits of a systems dynamics
model over time.
Summary
Using systems thinking and system dynamics principles demonstrated in the LAMPS
tool and CHAMP process, enables ATCO Manpower Planning to become a continuous
collaborative process, rather than the periodic and mostly top-down exercise that it is
today. It gives all parties a better view of the road ahead and allows them to generate
and test different scenarios based on current information and make more confident
ATCO Manpower Planning decisions possible.
References
Senge, P., Ross, R., Smith, B., Roberts, C., and Kleiner, A. (1994). The Fifth Discipline
Fieldbook. Nicholas Brealey Publishing, London, UK.
Vennix, J., (2000). Group Model Building Facilitating Team Learning Using System
Dynamics. John Wiley and Sons, New Y ork, USA.
Senge, P., Ross, R., Smith, B., Roberts, C., Kleiner, A. and Roth G. (1994). The Dance
of Change - The Challenges Sustaining Momentum in Learning Organisations.
DoubleDay, New Y ork, USA.
Coyle, G. and Morecroft J. (1999), Journal of the Operational Research Society Volume
50 Number 4. Stockton Press, UK.
Van Der Heijden, K., (1999), Scenarios - The Art of the Strategic Conversation. John
Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, USA.
EATCHIP Human Resources Team (1998c). A Systems View of MP and Management.
HUM.ET1.ST03.1000-REP-03. Brussels : EUROCONTROL.
EATMP Human Resources Team (2000). Guidelines for ATCO Manpower Planning
Processes. HUM.ET1.ST03.1000-GUI-02. Brussels : EUROCONTROL.
Curriculum-Vitae
Una Mellett (MBA) has over 10 years experience in human resources management in
Air Traffic Management. Nine years in the Human Resources Directorate, HQ,
EUROCONTROL, initially in the manpower planning, budgeting and control and later
she managed projects on redeployment, job analysis and job evaluation. She has also
participated in an organisational change project. Una joined the DIS/HUM Unit,
EATMP in June 1999 where she works in the area of Air Traffic Controller Manpower
Planning.
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