A simulation model for wheat-related policies and food insecurity
in Egypt
Miral H. Khodeir' (corresponding author), Hisham M. Abdelsalam?
1 Operations research and decision support department,
Faculty of computers and information,
Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
miral.h.khodeir@ fci-cu.edu.eg
2 Operations research and decision support department,
Faculty of computers and information,
Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt
h.abdelsalam@ fci-cu.edu.eg
Abstract
The aim of this study is to propose a vision on how to achieve high level of food self-sufficiency
in light of the available resources, expected future changes and future needs. This study defines
the major driving forces that will improve the food security in Egypt based on data and economic
indicators of wheat during the period (1986-2008). A system dynamics model was built to
present the process of imports, demand and consumption of wheat in Egypt, through monitoring
the increase in population undernourishment, and filling the gap between the desired quantity
and the supply of wheat. Finally, sets of policies were formulated and suggested to improve food
security in 2030, which are presented in the improvement of land management and productivity,
increase of individual income, decrease of population growth, and building a strategic inventory
of wheat for solving the problems of local supply.
Key words: Food security, Food consumption, Imports, System Dynamics, Market, Land
production, Agriculture
1. Introduction
Food security is one of the most critical issues in today's world, where it occupies great
importance in the light of the steady increase in population, so as the demand on major food
commodities, and lack of resources (Hafez et al., 2011). It also highlights the food crisis
experienced by most countries in the world (Hoddinott & Yohannes, 2002). Food problem is
coincided with the emergence of other crises, including the global financial crisis along with the
changes in the value of the US dollar and oil prices. This resulted in the rise of inflation rates in
the world, and reflected on the continuous suffering from the rise of food prices and the decline
in their global supply (Scherr, 1999).
Several international organizations and global research centers such as FAO, monitored the
emergence of global food crisis and its impact on the agriculture and food situation (FAO, 2001).
A wide gap in self-sufficiency between the production and consumption of food occurred in the
light of the increasing population, rising standards of living, declining of trade in food grains and
high prices in the market (Gerber, 2014).
The concept of food security is based on three main pillars, food availability, food accessibility
and food stability. First, food availability, which is measured by the ability of all individuals in
the community to manage their food effectively according to their physical potential, economic
and social policies (Pinstrup-Andersen, 2009). Second, food accessibility, which is related to the
demand and food safety, and quality. It is also related to the ability of the society to provide
adequate supplies of food for the population, either from domestic production or from foreign
markets. And finally, food stability is the sustainability and achievement of the previous two
dimensions across different periods without exposure to fluctuations or crises (Aliaga & Chaves-
Dos-Santos, 2014).
The world is facing a potential crisis in terms of food security, particularly in developing
countries, such as Egypt, which is threatened by the limited water resources, shrinking arable
land and insufficient agricultural production. Poverty and food insecurity in Egypt both have
risen significantly over the last three years, according to reports released by the United Nations
Food Agency and partners (El-Laithy, 2001; UNDP, 2010).
This study is concerned with the characterization of the current situation of wheat in the
domestic and the international market. There is a need to increase and improve the availability
and accessibility of food for the population, and to foresee future threats to alleviate scarcity of
food. The study shed light on the importance of wheat crop indicators in terms of cultivated area,
production, foreign trade, wheat prices and consumption of wheat that may be the cause of food
insecurity and increased the imports of wheat in Egypt. Moreover, the study sets policies for
achieving food security in Egypt. It is also a complement to see Egypt in 2030, by modeling and
testing the future policy options and scenarios to assess their impact on food sector.
The paper is structured in sections as follows. Introduction of food security problem and related
literature work in section 2, followed by the definition of food security problem in section 3, and
model description in section 4. Results are mentioned in section 5. Finally, the conclusion and
future policies are drawn in section 6.
2. Background and literature review
The food issue is considered a priority in economic policy objectives in Egypt as it is one of the
main pillars of national security (Hafez et al., 2011). The Egyptian government has attempted
over the centuries to provide food for the Egyptian people and achieve food security, including
policies to increase domestic production and import policies from (WFP, 2013). This is done
alongside adopting economic and social development plans to support agricultural activities
through expansion of agriculture lands, improvement of seeds, technologies, irrigation water
facilities, roads and services (Lewis, 2011).
Egypt and its culture were associated with agriculture, which has been since ancient times a
source of prosperity and progress (Gamal & Hoda, 2011). Agriculture in Egypt is considered one
of the most important sources of life; it contributes in achieving comprehensive and sustainable
development of the society. The growing importance of agriculture for the time being is due to
the large food gap which influences the national economy of the major cereal crops, and makes
the problem of food security one of the most important priorities that needs to be addressed (El-
Sadek, 2010).
Grain crops represent one of the strategic crops in the Egyptian agricultural sector. It is
considered an essential source of energy for humans, because they contain a large proportion of
carbohydrates (El-Gafy et al., 2013). It is also responsible for achieving food security for
individuals and for the society. Wheat is one of the most important strategic grain crops in Egypt
(Abdo, 2013), because of its economic importance for being the crop used to make bread
essentially needed by the majority of population. It contributes to about 37% of the thermal
needs of the consumer and about 45% of the total animal protein and about 52% of vegetable
protein (Abdel Mohsen & Albahloul, 2009; Kasem, 2013).
Several factors affected food security in most of the countries. Therefore, models, discussions
and researches suggested proper solutions, throughout the years in order to face the threat of
hunger and starvation. In this section, the effect of the natural and human causes on food security
and production is shown throughout several studies.
Land system for food production is considered the main factor for achieving food security. It
includes the availability of land for agriculture, the management of land governance for stable
food production, land system architecture, planning and socio ecological systems (Verburg et al.,
2013). Several studies and researches applied system dynamics in explaining the feedback loops
in agriculture in series of literatures (Forrester, 2007). A modeling approach based on system
dynamics was presented in (Muetzelfeldt, 2010) to study the influences and relationships
between agriculture, food security, environment and livelihood. It quantifies these influences and
outcomes as far as possible over time, and represents it dynamically. Another system dynamics
model was provided to help decision makers apply different policies in studying process of food
security to handle mismanagement of resources in order to prevent future threats of hunger and
poverty (Giraldo et al., 2008).
Consumption and demand were the focus of other studies. In Highland Kenya a system dynamics
model was developed to study the consumption and demand of cereals, which have been
increased by the growing population. The result was that both the availability and accessibility of
food have been the main constraints of food security (Breisinger et al., 2012).
Population, land use, cultivation, land fertility and market sectors have been studied through
feedback loops in several researches and studies (Wang et al., 2014; Ayenew, Melak Mesfin,
2014). Different Policies have also been implemented to improve food security such as
improving land management.
Technologies and global trade were used as a solution in (Allouche, 2011) to examine the
availability of natural resources, food and water to cover the needs of the population. As it
concluded that whenever the food production increases, population increases exponentially.
To conclude, researches have studied and set policies for managing and controlling the use of
agricultural lands through models that forecast production, demand and supply of wheat crops, in
order to achieve food security. Global trade is considered one of the solutions for solving the
problem of self-sufficiency in Egypt, which is carried out in this study. The study also forecasts
the food security in Egypt in 2030 in terms of wheat prices, production of wheat and population
demand. This paper will contribute to the field of studying wheat imports, production and their
effect on food security in Egypt. Since the country does not follow a certain policy for producing
or importing wheat, there was a need to set rules and policies for achieving wheat satisfaction.
3. Problem Definition and Objective
The paper addresses the shortage of domestic wheat supply in Egypt that is unable to meet the
continually increasing population and consumption needs aligned with scarcity of arable land
and water resources. Thus, there is an urgent need to import wheat, which in return will greatly
influence the governmental expenditures. This paper will develop a system dynamics model to
represent and simulate the food security problem of wheat in Egypt, through modeling wheat
production and imports to cover population needs in order to overcome the shortage in wheat
production and supply. Moreover, a set of policies related to productivity, losses of wheat,
population growth and annual income of individuals will be tested within the context in order to
recommend policies that could lead to higher level of self-sufficiency of wheat.
4. Methodology
System dynamics is used to represent the feedback processes and understand the complex
systems' behavior over time. It is based on the structure of "stocks" which characterize the state
of the system and generate the information upon which decisions and actions are based. "Flows"
that determine the rate at which quantities flow into or out of the stock over time, and converters
that modify the changes occurring in the model (Sterman, 2002).
In order to explain and describe the dynamics of the different factors and elements affecting the
wheat production and sufficiency in Egypt, a system dynamics model was built using Vensim
Software. Given the importance of the wheat crop, it is of necessity to shed light on the key
components of the model, which show the evolution of the foreign trade of wheat with respect to
imports, as well as the evolution of human consumption of wheat. Finally, presenting some
indicators related to the wheat crop, such as the ratio of self-sufficiency, wheat gap, and the
average per capita consumption.
The model was built to simulate and explore the food security process of wheat through the study
of availability, accessibility and stability of food by analyzing the process of land production,
population demand, market sectors and expenditures. This is done by modeling and testing the
future policy options, outlined in improving land productivity, increasing individual income,
minimizing losses of wheat produced and limiting the population growth that serve the decision
making process by assessing the impact of policies in food sector and testing scenarios on food
security.
4.1 Model Structure
The model is subdivided into four main sub-models: cultivated wheat area productivity and
production, population undernourishment, imports and market sectors.
4.1.1 Evolution of cultivated wheat area, productivity and production sub-model
The food gap in Egypt is clearly represented through the inability of domestic production to meet
domestic consumption of the wheat. Thus, there is a need to enhance and increase wheat
production. Studies show that the cultivated area of wheat increased during the period (1986-
2008), and recorded its highest level in 2008 (CAPMAS, 2014). The productivity of Egyptian
wheat acres also increased slightly during the period (1986- 2008) which lead to the rise of wheat
production during the same period (MALR, 2011).
A sub-model was built to validate and forecast the upcoming cultivated area, productivity and
production, where the amount of agricultural production is altered by the size of cultivated area,
and the productivity of each acre of land.
The cultivated Area is represented as a stock in figure 1 and is increased by a cultivation rate of
an average 1.9% each year, which was estimated from the rate of increase of land yearly. The
amount of wheat produced each year is also calculated through productivity of cultivated area
yearly. As shown in figure 1, a reinforcing loop of the "cultivated process" is used to represent
the gradual increase of cultivated wheat land yearly. The model assumes that the cultivated area
is not lost and only increases with reclamation activities. Future research will consider the effect
of desertification on the size of cultivated area.
Production
+ Quantity
Productivity
Q = ’ Cultivated Area
Cultivation rate
+
CG;
Cultivated
Process
Cultivation
fraction
Cultivation +
increase rate
+
Figure 1. Cultivated Area of wheat
5
4.1.2. Population, consumption and prevalence of undernourishment sub-model
The population growth in Egypt is considered a unique case by all standards. Population grows at
an annual rate of about 2%, leading to a speculation that Egypt will have a population of about
117 million people by 2030, thus Egypt will face food shortage in light of the limited resources
of fertile land, fresh water and food supplies (Hafez et al., 2011).
Figure 2 represents a sub-model, which illustrates the interrelationship between the needs of
population for wheat and their ability to purchase the required quantity for consumption. We
define the growing population by the "Birth Rate" which is estimated through the population
increase yearly, and the death fraction is used to define the "Death Rate" which is estimated from
(Ali & Adams, 1996) to be a small fraction affected by the prevalence of undernourishment.
Due to the huge growth of population, it influenced the desire of food consumption, especially
the demand of wheat. Since it is considered a major cereal crop needed by almost all the
population (E]-Gafy et al., 2013). Studies concluded that the wheat consumption constitutes a
large share of the population’s daily dietary consumption, which depends on the energy content
of food. It is estimated on average to be 1700 Kcal (CAPMAS, 2014).
The capability to purchase the wheat must be considered for achieving the desired quantity, the
sub-model shows the effect of purchasing power on the needed consumption of wheat through
studying the average annual income of population estimated by (CAPMAS, 2014). Since the
desired wheat consumption is constrained by the capability to purchase wheat, an equation is
used to take the minimum value between the required amount of wheat and the amount of wheat
that should be purchased yearly for an individual.
However, it is also constrained by the amount of wheat available in the inventory. The next step
is converting all the quantities obtained into kilocalories to compare it with the annual desired
kilocalories per person, in order to measure the satisfaction through the prevalence of
undernourishment.
Kilocal consumed per year
Annual desired kilocal consumption per person
Population Nourished =
. Population Nourished
Prevalence of undernourishment = —————__—_—_—_
Total Population
This section is focused on examining the desired wheat consumption of population, wheat
purchasing power, availability of wheat in inventory and how it is used to achieve food security
through estimating the prevalence of undernourishment using a stock and flow structure shown
in figure 2.
Causal loops were determined to explain the interactions and feedback loops of the variables in
the sub-model where the first balanced causal loop is the "Undernourishment of Population",
since whenever the population increases it will directly affect the increase of undernourishment
leading to an increase in the death rate. A reinforcing causal loop "Desired wheat for population"
6
represents the needs of population from wheat in kilograms, to decrease the prevalence of
undernourishment, in order to improve food security of wheat. Another reinforcing causal loop
diagram "Purchased wheat", indicates the amount of wheat a person can purchase, which is
affected by his yearly income. Whenever the income increases, a person can purchase wheat as
much as he can, leading to a decrease in the prevalence of undernourishment.
+
Birth fraction fa expectancy Death Fraction
@
5 ——z
+ Population = Prevalence of
ofPopulaiton Under Nourishment
Population
Kcal consumption Nourished
of Wheat per day
+
_—_———> Annual Desired KCAL KCalories
consumption per Consumed per
year
+
‘Actual Wheat + [ a
Numbr of days
ina year
Keal per kilogramm
+ R of wheat
4
Annual Desiréd
KCAL ConciiapHot Desired Wheat for
Population
+
Total Population
yearly Income
Consumption in +
Person yearly ini
Income +
Budget of Money for + KG in Ardebs
een Desired Wheat in
kilograms Desired Purchased
Wheat Consumption
Avg Money for
wheat from income
—~m pesire Wheat»!
R + ‘consumption ty
Purchased Wheat
Purchased Wheat"
Figure 2. Food security of wheat in Egypt
4.1.3 Imports and consumption shipment sub-model
Egypt had to be a major importer of wheat in the world, in order to maintain a stock that covers
the gap between wheat production and population demand (Gamal & Hoda, 2011). The sub-
model was built to represent the stock of wheat, which reserves wheat for immediate
consumption and in emergencies giving the government sufficient time to provide alternative
supplies of wheat. A safety stock is considered in the sub-model to meet the emergencies and
prevent any shortage that may occur, which is estimated to be 20% of wheat demand (personal
interviews with the General Authority of ministry of agriculture and ministry of supply experts).
Whenever the available stock of wheat is low or lower than the normal rates, it becomes urgent
to reorder, in order to avoid any shocks in prices and markets. Moreover, other factors are also
considered such as the processing time for processing or shipping an order which is assumed to
be on average 1 year, (Sterman, 2002) and the inventory adjustment time which is also assumed
to be 1 year to set the stock in balance, as shown in figure 3.
The sub-model shows a stock altered by the amount of wheat produced and imported in order to
maintain a regular flow of wheat into the country, some of them are lost due to bad storage
7
system, transportation means, environmental conditions and other factors (CAPMAS, 2014). In
addition, small percentages of wheat are used as seeds. The rest are used for direct consumption
of the population. The consumption rate is determined by the availability of wheat in stock and
the desired amount of wheat needed for the population.
The sub-model contains causal loops to show the feedback processes that take place whenever
there is shortage in fulfilling population needs. The first balanced causal loop "Adjusting wheat
stock" indicates the adjustment of wheat inventory whenever the inventory is lower than the
population demand, consumption and domestic supply of wheat, so the amount of imports
increases to balance the stock. Another balanced loop "Adjusting shipment" (Sterman, 2000),
indicates the shipment rate of wheat to population, which is adjusted by the fulfillment ratio that
is used to prevent shortage in inventory through reducing shipment of wheat to customers in case
of low inventory available. In addition to increasing the shipment rate of wheat whenever there is
sufficient or excess amount of wheat in stock.
Loss Rate _+
Losses of wheat
Wheat |——s¢ pir)
Inventory | Wheatusedas
seeds iy
GC ‘Amount of Seeds
Quantity of wheat
Adjusting shipment
Order Fulfillment
ae
+. Desired Wheat Import Rate
Demand
+ B
‘Adjusting Wheat
‘Stock
jp Inventory Maximum “+
"Adjustment - Shipment Rate __ vw)
Consumption and Shipment Rate
Minimum Order
Processing Time
Time to adjust Desired Wheat
Inventory Inventory 4 Sey
Stock
SE Desired Coverage
Inventory
Coverage
Fi
Desired Wheat.
Consumption
Figure 3. Wheat inventory and the process of domestic supply, imports and shipment quantities
After determining the required amount of wheat imports, a simple sub-model is created to
calculate the total expenditures of wheat imports that the government should cover. The sub-
model in figure 4 shows the gradual increase of imported wheat prices yearly, shown in the
reinforcing loop "Prices of wheat import".
Price of +
Imported Wheat
+
4 Import Price of
Import price “>
variation Whaat
+
R
Increase rate
Prices of Wheat
Import Rate import
Figure 4. Prices of importing wheat per ton
4.1.4 Market and wheat prices sub-model
Spending on food and grains are considered important items in Egyptian family budget,
especially wheat and wheat products, which are considered essential commodities for Egyptian
people (Abdo, 2013). Changes in the global wheat prices affect its products, impact the domestic
producer prices and market prices, which will consequently lead to an increase in household
spending on food (Ayenew, Melak Mesfin, 2014).
Domestic prices of wheat in the market depends mainly on the producer or farmer prices from
(CAPMAS, 2014), which are affected by yearly inflation and variations rates that are used to
capture the changes associated with the producer price. This is due to costs of production,
farming, transportation, land area rents and others, leading to gradual increase in prices yearly
shown in the reinforcing loop "Producer price". Some other factors such as the markup fraction
are added to the producer price to set the market prices as shown in figure 5.
Market Price
+ +
Markup Fraction
ise, Se
F Producer Price of
Producer Price Wheat
Variation
¥
hn) Annual Variation rate
of producer price
Producer Price
+
Increase in
Producer Price
Figure 5. Producer price of wheat
4.2. Model Validation
It is important to test and validate the model to help in building the right product as per the
customer’s requirement and help in satisfying their needs. The model structure is validated and
tested through comparing the historical data with the model results, expert reviews, and unit
consistency tests. Experts from three governmental agencies: (1) Ministry of Agriculture and
Land Reclamation; (2) The Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC) — the Egyptian
Cabinet; and (3) Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade approved the adequacy of the model
through comparing it with the real system subjectively. In addition, the model succeeded in
achieving the goal of improving wheat production and food security in Egypt. The model also
agreed with other researches on the shortage of wheat in Egypt and the future crisis in covering
population needs (Abdel Mohsen & Albahloul, 2009; Kasem, 2013) (MALR, 2011) (Hafez et
al., 2011) (CAPMAS, 2014), it also succeeded in predicting the future demand, consumption,
imports and expenses of wheat.
The model has been validated during the period (1986-2008) by comparing the model results
with the historical data gathered and then setting forecasts of year 2030 (CAPMAS, 2014).
In order to validate the model data, the historical data is cleansed and updated to omit the
extremes and outliers found in some of the data, since they are gathered either from the Central
Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics or from expert reviews. Then smoothed by
dividing the data and using the 10" percentile (Q1,Q2,...,.Q10; where Q is the percentile) and
eliminating Q; and Qio from the historical data to find a consistent pattern.
5. Results and Discussions
5.1 Simulation results and future projection
Figures 6,7,8 and 9 represent the validation of different endogenous variables in thousand tons
units and its projection for the next 22 years until 2030.
eee Historical Data 9 ©=—=— Model Output ——=—HistoricalData) =<=— Model Output
140,000 14,000
120,000 ‘ 12,000
°
100,000 on 2 10,000
- °
= 20,000 7 5 3,000
2
& 60,000 % 6,000
3 3
2 40,000 £ 4,000
20,000 2,000
0 +——— 1 0 + :
weotanveotnaanvd gsezxrReagegexnxnrase eg
BARDASSHAAAAAR 2 aSsSastAANA
AAAARSDSSRSSSAGA AAARSSSSSSCSSA
A AAA A AAAARAAN AAAAARA AR AR AAAN
Years Years
Figure 6. Population growth yearly Figure 7. Production of wheat yearly
10
=== ModelOutput —= Historical Data
———HistoricalData) === Model Output
9,000
200 8,000 .
-
800 7,000 wei
2 --
4, 700 6 6.000 | Any f-----
8 600 2 5,000
B 500 3 4,000
3 400 = 3,000
= 300 2,000 |
200 1,000
100 o4
0 CONnDH AMR A HD
BRR eSeaeaa8
BSSARSSSAASARAR AAAS ARS ANRR ARAN
AAARRARSSSSSSSSSS
AAA TA ANNNNANANAN NAAN Years
Years
Figure 9. Wheat Imported to cover the gap between desired
Figure 8. Amount of wheat lost demand and domestic supply
Figure 6 indicates the yearly increase in population of the model compared to the historical data.
Its accuracy reaches 99%. Figure 7 shows the yearly wheat production given the productivity of
agricultural land compared with the historical data. Its accuracy is 93%. Figure 8 determines the
losses of wheat from the amount produced and imported due to several factors mentioned before
and the accuracy when comparing the model results with the historical data is 76%.
Figure 9 indicates the total imports of wheat in thousand tons, which resulted from the model and
then compared with the historical data. Since wheat imports in Egypt do not follow a certain
strategy, it relies heavily on expert reviews as mentioned before. It varies greatly from a one year
to another according to the population needs and the quantity of domestic production. Hence, the
data is cleansed and tested for validation. There was a need to manage the wheat consumption
and imports, which is modeled in this study to prevent the misuse and management of wheat and
to avoid the increase in prices and costs due to the yearly amount of imports from foreign
countries.
To overcome the challenges already mentioned before, and reach the best possible self-
sufficiency ratio of wheat needs, analysis and policies are carried out for the next 22 years until
2030 to forecast and project the future demand, supply, production, and imports. Figures 6,7,8
and 9 indicate the gradual increase of population due to the large birthrate fraction, which affects
the annual demand of wheat. Figure 10 shows the amount of wheat that population can afford
within their average annual income (CAPMAS, 2014). The amount of wheat purchased increased
till year 2012 then gradually decreased due to the insufficiency of population income to meet the
gradual increase of prices, so the quantity purchased will decrease slightly while there is a
gradual increase in demand and consumption.
11
——— Model Purchased Wheat === Model Desired wheat consumption
160,000
140,000
w 120,000
© 100,000 +
3
& 80,000
3 60,000
FS
F 40,000
20,000 ueee
of
©CHAAH OATH OMOD AN H w
28S3a 8s 8 SEBSBSARaS
Bes RE RESSESBSESESBSERES
S833 A3AR8RR NKRKRKAA
Years
Figure 10. Amount of wheat the population can purchase given the average annual income and the desired amount of
wheat for population yearly
Desired wheat Demand === Amount of wheat supplied
25,000
20,000
my
rs
3
15,000
3
©
&
3 10,000
Z 10,
=
£
5,000
0+ 1 tt tt 1
CBONTOMONTOHONDONTOHMONTODO
DONO ARARASODSOSSSHANHHNANANAD
BARRAAHRSSSSSSGSSSSSSSSSS
Hae AAA AN AANN ANNAN ANNAN AANA
Years
Figure 11. Fulfilling the needs of wheat for the population
Figure 11 Indicates the amount of wheat supplied to cover population needs, and the amount of
desired wheat demand by the population. It determines the undernourishment ratio, which is the
ratio of people who received their desired amount and those who did not, which is approximately
7.5% of the whole population.
=== Amount of wheat Produced ++++++ Amount of wheat Imported
——— Desired wheat for population
25,000 ]
» 20,000 +
Z
ro
15,000 -
z
g
$ 10,000 + z=
2 | ----77 ood
= sap joroazeawee=e nes ES
0+
COONTORGATOBONTOHRONY OHO
SSASSSSRSSSSSSIISASggsss
RRARARARRSSSSSSSSSSSIIggs
BARAAAASRASKSSSSSRRagga
Figure 12. Amount of wheat produced and imported and amount of wheat consumed yearly
Figure 12 indicates the domestic supply of wheat which is increased gradually due to the
increase in the productivity and cultivated area, while the imports increase gradually also to
cover the needs of population.
5.2. Policy analysis
In the light of the outcome of the expected scenarios for the future of food security in 2030, the
study recommends successive agricultural policies that lead to achieving higher levels of self-
sufficiency of wheat and narrowing the gap between production and consumption to reduce
imports.
a. Policies related to increasing agricultural land productivity that will lead to a decrease in
imports and so, the decrease in costs of wheat imports, which will save the governmental
expenditures. It depends on improving land management, supporting the agriculture inputs
with fertilizers, seeds, pesticides and improving the efficiency of agricultural production by
reducing the losses and optimizing the utilization of natural, human and financial resources.
Figure 13 and 14 indicate the increase of productivity from 2.7 Tons/Acres to 4.5 Tons/acres
and its effect on the production, the amount of imports and wheat import costs through the
years 2008 until 2030. It is clear that there is a significant improvement for the wheat
produced which increased by an average of 49%, which influenced the amount of wheat
imported and governmental expenditures.
=== Amount of wheat Produced ——= Historical Data
Amount of wheat Imported === Model output after improving productivity
25,000 w EGP 2,500,000
ra
6
w 20,000 ~ -_—-- 5 EGP 2,000,000
2 -_--" =
6 ---- 5
= 15,000 or" $ EGP 1,500,000
= - 3
5 =
3 10,000 | 4 & EGP 1,000,000
2 ‘ 3
F 5,000 | 5 EGP500,000 -
i= ----77
o4 5 EGp- AS Ferrs
Qaeamnnadnauna a SHaRZRD8S REA
Saagasgaagagagaaaga
ARRRRRRRARA & SRR RAR NR
Years Years
Figure 13, Production and imports after setting a productivity Figure 14. Expenditures of wheat imported in Egyptian
policy Pound per thousand tons
b. Policies are applied on minimizing the losses of wheat during storage and transportation, by
providing better means of transportation, paved roads in places of production and
consumption, and inventories to prevent the wheat lost during storage. Figure 15 shows the
decrease in the amount of wheat imports by 7.5%.
Amount of wheat Imported
=== Amount of wheat Imported after zero losses
8,000
rere
£ 6,000 saan nnn nnn
F 5,000 | ~~
z
§ 4,000
3 3,000
F 2,000
1,000
0 +5 : : —— : : 1
RROHNMTHOERMMAOHNANMT HOR
SSSASHSAASSSARQKHARAKRHRAR
SSSesesegesssasssssssss
RRRSRSRRRARKRKRKRARRRKRKRKRKRAAN
Figure 15. Amount of wheat imported before and after decreasing the amount of lost wheat
c. Policies are also applied on limiting the gradual increase of population yearly and its effect
on the wheat demand. The government must provide a strong family planning program to
reduce fertility so as population by personal and media awareness to maintain and enhance
the issue of food security (Khalifa et al., 2000; Adamson & DaVanzo, 2001). The birth
14
fraction of population is estimated to be 2.8% increase each year (CAPMAS, 2014). A policy
is set to decrease the birth rate of population to 2.6% yearly. Figure 16 presents the decrease
in the wheat imports due to the lower demand of wheat.
——— Modellmports === Model imports after decreasing birth rate
9,000
8,000
7,000
a
6 6,000 +
=. oe -
5 5,000 | ----------- ee ==
z
$ 4,000
3
E 3.000
2,000
1,000
0+. —— —— —— —
QHOHAMTNORMHOYAMYTNHORHAASD
SS)
SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSsS
RAANAARANARANARAAARNAANANA
Figure 16. Imported wheat before and after changing the birth fraction of population
d. Policies are tested on increasing the average annual income of individuals, to cope with the
increase of wheat prices in domestic and global markets, since it may affect the percentage of
undernourishment. Figure 17 indicates the improvement of purchasing power of an
individual after increasing the personal income from 2160 Egyptian Pound per month to
3800 Egyptian Pound per month (CAPMAS, 2014). The population wheat demand can then
be purchased quite easily for higher satisfaction. The figure indicates the gradual decrease of
the amount of wheat purchased in the future, which is due to the increase of prices.
Model Purchased Wheat === Model Desired wheat consumption
300,000
250,000 -
200,000 -
150,000 +
100,000
Thousand Tons
50,000
0 +
2aO amt
SOegegngd sda sGsdna nnn ad
Sesqognugngegnaeeonaaeaoaeaoag
AANNNNANANANANANAANANAAN
Figure 17. The improvement in the amount of purchased wheat to fit the desired wheat demand yearly
15
e. Policies are also applied on improving agricultural production, population birthrate and
average annual income by increasing land productivity to 4.5 Tons/acres, decreasing the birth
rate to 2.6% yearly, and improving the average annual income of an individual to an average
of 3800 Egyptian Pound per month. Figure 18 and 19 represent the effect of these policies on
amount of wheat imported, which is improved by 99%, the percentage of undernourishment,
which is also improved by an average of 21% and the costs of imported wheat, which is also
improved by an average of 99%.
——— Model Imports
= @ |mports after applying the policy
8,000
7,000 __
g 6,000
& 5,000
z
g 4,000
2 3,000
£ 2,000
1,000
0 (> am ae oe oe oe ee oe oe
HD AV nme MO nO AD A nk pO Ad
PSP HS SP SP CP oh Om OP oH
I i i i ae ae a
Years
Figure 18. Imported wheat after applying the policies of birth
rate, annual income and productivity
Historical Data
——— % of Undernourishment
=== %of Undernourishment after applying the
policies
10%
8% =
g Teen
2 6% meek
g --
5
9 4%
G
a
2% +
0% +— T T —
e2ontoanonet wo wo
Saute SANNA AN
Ssegcsagag gg sgesgs
AANSANN AANA A A
Years
Figure 19.The percentage of undernourishment
= @ Model output after applying Policies
EGP 2,500,000
EGP 2,000,000
EGP 1,500,000
EGP 1,000,000
EGP 500,000
EGPO
Egyptian Pound/Thousand Tons
Figure 20. . Import Prices of wheat in Egyptian Pound per thousand tons before and after applying the policies
16
6. Conclusion and future work
Wheat is considered one of the most important strategic crops in Egypt and an important factor
for food security. This paper holds several researches and deductions to prove the importance of
wheat security, through conducting different models and techniques that succeed in maintaining
accurate measures for the availability of wheat source to meet daily needs.
In light of the current situation of Egyptian food security, and the projected increase of
population, there are many positive and negative determinants, which will contribute in the
formation of food security in Egypt, taking into account the following points that have been
studied in the model.
e Production process of wheat; by increasing the cultivated area, and emphasizing the
importance of agricultural investment to achieve higher production efficiency, this is done by
technical cooperation, transfer of expertise, agricultural research, providing efficient human
resources and updated technologies to achieve the development of sustainable agricultural
productivity and food security.
e Import process, which covers the gap between the domestic supply and population needs,
costing the government on average 50 million Egyptian pounds per ton of wheat yearly.
Thus, there is a need for a political and an economic stability factor of the local market to
maintain sustainable development, by managing the factors of price increase and limiting the
imports.
Further studies will be carried out focusing on the sources of water flow in Egypt, needed for
cultivation that could help in the transformation of agriculture land from a non-cultivated to a
cultivated land. Moreover, the factors of increasing prices of agricultural products locally will be
studied. The studies will also enhance the process of imports through improving means of
shipment and storage and minimizing loss of products. Finally, applying the model on various
grain crops rather than wheat crop.
Acknowledgement
The authors would like to express their sincere gratitude to the participating experts from the
Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, the Information and Decision Support Center
(IDSC) — the Egyptian Cabinet, and the Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade for their help with
data collection, insightful comments, and model validation.
References
Abdel Mohsen, S. & Albahloul, A., 2009. The alternatives of the increase of wheat supplies and
its potential risks (4Lstxel/ ly pbliey pos 4 ail ro oy eal! 5b j Hild), Cairo.
Abdo, B.A., 2013, Economic study for the possibility of wheat agriculture expansion in Egypt
(aes cb ceaill del 5 (od aus sill Agile ApsLoisl Au! a), Available at:
http://www. publications.zu.edu.eg/Pages/PubShow.aspx?1D =9377& &publD =19 [Accessed
February 26, 2015].
17
Adamson, D.M. & DaVanzo, J., 2001. Population Growth in Egypt. Available at:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/issue_papers/IP183z1.html [Accessed February 26, 2015].
Ali, S.M. & Adams, R.H., 1996. The Egyptian food subsidy system: Operation and effects on
income distribution. World Development, 24(11), pp.1777-1791. Available at:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0305750X 96000678 [Accessed March 9, 2015].
Aliaga, M.A. & Chaves-Dos-Santos, S.M., 2014. Food and nutrition security public initiatives
from a human and socioeconomic development perspective: mapping experiences within the
1996 World Food Summit signatories. Social science & medicine (1982), 104, pp.74-9.
Available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027795361300717X [Accessed
January 21, 2015).
Allouche, J., 2011. The sustainability and resilience of global water and food systems: Political
analysis of the interplay between security, resource scarcity, political systems and global trade.
Food Policy, 36, pp.S3-S8. Available at:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306919210001272 [Accessed July 30, 2014].
Ayenew, M.M., 2013. Agricultural production and food insecurity in Ethiopia: System dynamics
approch. Available at: https://bora.uib.no/handle/1956/7295 [Accessed February 26, 2015].
Ayenew, Melak Mesfin, K.B., 2014. Food Insecurity in Ethiopia: Population, Food Production
and Market. Available at:
http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2014/proceed/papers/P1273.pdf [Accessed
February 26, 2015].
Breisinger et al., 2012. Beyond the Arab Awakening: Policies and Investments for Poverty
Reduction and Food Security, Intl Food Policy Res Inst. Available at:
https://www.google.com.eg/books?hl=en&lr=&id=-Fs_j3stvj4C &pgis=1 [Accessed February 26,
2015].
CAPMAS, 2014. Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics. Available at:
http://www.capmas.gov.eg/.
El-Gafy, LK., El-Ganzori, A.M. & Mohamed, A.I., 2013. Decision support system to maximize
economic value of irrigation water at the Egyptian governorates meanwhile reducing the national
food gap. Water Science, 27(54), pp.1-18. Available at:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S 1110492913000027 [Accessed February 26,
2015).
El-Laithy, H., 2001. The gender dimensions of poverty in Egypt.
El-Sadek, A., 2010. Water desalination: An imperative measure for water security in Egypt.
Desalination, 250(3), pp.876-884. Available at:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0011916409011825 [Accessed February 26,
2015).
18
FAO, A.O., 2001. The state of food insecurity in the world.
Forrester, J.W., 2007. System dynamics—the next fifty years. System Dynamics Review, 23(2-3),
pp.359--370. Available at: http://doi-wiley.com/10.1002/sdr.381 [Accessed February 26, 2015].
Gamal, S. & Hoda, M., 2011. Local production of wheat: Surplus in marketing, local supply and
prices (Gils dul) ple 5 pe sSall ayy sills fe sui nila! ; lal! mail! 5 la}), Available at:
http://www.idsc.gov.eg/IDSC/Publication/V iew.aspx.
Gerber, A., 2014. Food Security as an Outcome of Food Systems. Available at:
http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2014/proceed/papers/P1113.pdf.
Giraldo, D.P., Betancur, M.J. & Arango, S., 2008. Food Security in Development Countries: A
systemic perspective. Technology, 1, p.15.
Hafez, W. et al., 2011. Food security in Egypt in 2030: Future scenarios ( ae cof SS Ge VI
Ahiius Gls 9 line :2030), Available at:
http://www .idsc.gov.eg/IDSC/publication/V iew.aspx?ID =352.
Hoddinott, J. & Y ohannes, Y ., 2002. Dietary diversity as a food security indicator. Food
consumption and nutrition division discussion paper, 136, p.2002.
Kasem, A., 2013. Economic and production efficiency of wheat agriculture in E]- Beheira
Governorate (4 yaw! Lidlas 4 te sy jall ail! tlio! as Y diLaiY/, Laliy/ sel), Available at:
http://kenanaonline.com/users/A MFK/posts/576209.
Khalifa, M., DaVanzo, J. & Adamson, D.M., 2000. Population Growth in Egypt. A Continuing
Policy Challenge. Available at:
http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix =html& identifier=A D A 386347
[Accessed February 26, 2015].
Lewis, L.N., 2011. EGYPT’S FUTURE DEPENDS ON AGRICULTURE AND WISDOM. first
access on, 16.
MALR, 2011. List of agriculture statistics (4¢/ il! GleLaay/s nt), Available at: http://www.agr-
egypt.gov.eg/StudiesA ll.aspx.
Muetzelfeldt, R., 2010. Extended System Dynamics modelling of the impacts of food system
drivers on food security, livelihoods and the environment. CGIAR Research Program on Climate
Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).
Pinstrup-Andersen, P., 2009. Food security: definition and measurement. Food Security, 1(1),
pp.5-7. Available at: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12571-008-0002-y [Accessed October
20, 2014].
Scherr, S.J., 1999. Soil Degradation: A Threat to Developing-country Food Security by 2020?,
Intl Food Policy Res Inst. Available at:
https://www.google.com.eg/books?hl=en&lr=&id=X jfyW jxEZioC &pgis=1 [Accessed February
26, 2015).
Sterman, J.D., 2000. Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world,
Irwin/McGraw- Hill Boston.
Sterman, J.D., 2002. System Dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. In
Proceedings of the ESD Internal Symposium.
UNDP, 2010. United Nations Development Assistance Framework for Egypt, Available at:
http://www.eg.undp.org/content/egypt/en/home/operations/legal_framework/_jcr_content/center
parsys/download_15/file.res/UNDAF 2013-2017.pdf.
Verburg, P.H. et al., 2013. Land system change and food security: towards multi-scale land
system solutions. Current opinion in environmental sustainability, 5(5), pp.494-502. Available
at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877343513000821 [Accessed November
27, 2014].
Wang, H.H., Wang, Y. & Delgado, M.S., 2014. The Transition to Modem Agriculture: Contract
Farming in Developing Economies. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 96(5),
pp.1257-1271. Available at: http://ajae.oxfordjoumals.org/content/96/5/1257.short [Accessed
February 26, 2015].
WFP, 2013. The status of poverty and food security in Egypt: Analysis and Policy
recommendations, Available at:
http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp257467.pdf.
20
