Table of Contents
Another modeling approach: using novice to do the job
Courage to take risk and you will have a star!
Chia-Ming Hsu
Doctoral Student
Department of Business Management
National Sun Y at- Sen University
Kaohsiung, Taiwan
9041802@ student.nsysu.edu.tw
Abstract
Including a professional modeler to establish a profound and reliable model is
always a regular way to do the job. But sometimes we don’t have the chance to get all
the necessary resources. During the project modeling process, we meet abnormal
challenge and also have chance to find other way to reach the goal. The most important
part is we use a novice to establish the model. In order to overcome the obstacles we
would meet. We just use many ways to support the modeling work. Finally we just
complete the work and win our agent's confidence to ask for our next proposal to
establish another model. The purpose of this study is using qualitative research
technique to share our experience to all meet the same challenges. We found that both
extemal and intemal structures are very important to success. We concluded some
topics related to these two direction findings and also propose some limits for further
study.
Background: Successful model building process
There are many papers described about successful model building process
(Gr6Bler, A., 2000; Hines & Johnson, 1994). Some of them also create other way to
make the model (Graham & Walker, 1998). All of the papers described modeling
process would include important elements (Randers, 1980). Modeler (Randers, 1977),
Interaction between modeler and agent, and group modeling (Akkermans, 1995;
Akkermans & Vennix, 1997; Andersen & Richardson, 1997; Andersen et al, 1997;
Lane, 1993; Wang, 1999; White et al., 1994) are frequently appeared topics in the
magazines. Many of them emphasized the necessary of the experienced modeler to
make the model. But if the situation is not assure for the experienced modeler to make
the job, would there be any method to continue the modeling project and also succeed?
Before becoming an experienced modeler, everyone is a novice. The traditional way to
train a novice is require he to model at least two projects: an existed simulated like
People Express and a real world (company). The real case always is no-paid project
and made for academic research. Of course the quality of the model is not so good.
However, there are less time our busy experienced modelers have and the real project
win the real attention and effort. Could we take less time from the experienced modeler
and also train a novice into a better modeler? How could we combine the training
process with the real model project? This study tried to look back from our project
experience. To look for the elements that must exist when we want to use a novice to
model a real project. We would also discuss the dark sides that would appear when
novice does the job and suggest some methods to overcome it.
Research methods: Qualitative research process
This study use qualitative research process to share our finding. Basically, the
components of the qualitative analysis include: data, analysis and explaining process
(especially coding process), and presentation (Becker, 1970; Charmaz, 1983; Lofland,
1971; Miles & Huberman, 1984). The qualitative research process could be showed as
picture 1.
Data
Document, memo, observation, and diary records
| (Abstract process)
Analysis and explaining process
Naming, conceptualize, topics arrangement, Coding
| (Grouping process)
Grouping, graphic relationship
Table finding, result, assumptions, propositions.
Picture 1: qualitative research process
Arranged by this study.
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Our evidences came from the arrangement of the memo, diary, or the observation
from the advisor. Using ‘ground theory’ data (time schedules, documents, memos... )
to support this kind of claim or opinions. Using case practicing experiences to do the
qualitative research. To arrange the overall topics experienced in this modeling process
of Tai-power project and see what topics will emerge when I put them all together.
Concept is the major part of science. When we give a phenomenon a name and
construct a concept for the phenomenon, we then could continuously pay close
attention to the phenomenon (Blumer 1969, pp.153-182). Then we categorize these
concepts into a few groups and give each group a name. Each group has some familiar
characteristics.
Qualitative research approach: Content analysis
Following the previous qualitative process, we arranged the original data, look
through related issues, items, ideas, components. Then we named for the important
concepts and group these concepts into four groups. Each group has similar
characteristics.
I personally think the priority will be the order of guiding structure, frequently
agents interviewing, personal characteristics, and then personal modeling abilities. The
former two are about the structure level approach. It could make sure the modeling
direction would be control by the project manager. The latter two would decide the
detailed quality of the project. The grouping is showed in table 1 and would be
described more detail as follows.
Table 1: grouping of important concepts
Main item Guiding Frequently Personal Personal
structure agents characteristics |modeling
interviewing abilities
Second item Roles in the Keep the relation | Lesson the Developing
modeling pressure. from the doing
process Interaction
between model Forget. Energy focus on
\Team network | team and client one job
Look through
|The project Modeler’s different angle. | Self-reflection
Imanager must _|position positive of the new
have the loop Have religious —_ learner
courage to takes ‘belief or
some risks Trade off accepted |practice sitting Stay in one
by agent: Get most}in meditation. place
Routine team priority: even cost
meeting less Every time is a
good chance to
(Multi-round Calibration, modify your
modeling ‘verification, and model.
consensus consumer oriented
in hamony with
agent's
Organization
culture and
communication
style
Multi-round
modeling
consensus
Guiding structure
Our project uses a team form to do the project. The guiding structure would discuss
mainly on the topics with in the modeling team.
Roles in the modeling process: guilder, discuss partner, and test partner
There must be an experienced ‘teacher/guilder’ beside the new modeler or the
novice would lack the direction. There must be a person you can talk to for discussing.
Not the teacher, but the friend or modeling partner
More playing would find more enors. There also must be some model testers to
test and play the model for you to find out the bugs the model might have. The roles
would be arranged in table 2.
Table 2: three moles
Roles Functions
Novice modeler Build the model
One teacher For catch the critical structure
Other partner and consulter | Give suggestions, possible ideas, and concepts, but just
for references, the modeler can even ignore their words to
be suitable for use.
Team network
Different network produce different information that produce different action
strategies. Our interaction includes routine and evolution types.
Routine type: Every Tuesday/W ednesday noon meeting
The novice, teacher, and partner shared and analyzed interview records and oral
history data. Trying to find out the deep insights.
Evolution through time
First stage. 3 teachers and three assistants met together to win the project and set up
the initial modeling process.
Second stage. We use more than one year to do the project. Through the project
petiod, the modeler, guilder and partners (case producer- our project also want us to
offer related cases for references, model consulter, people help play and test the model)
discuss and meet together as long as they have to by e-mail, telephone, and meetings.
on
The novice modeler almost discuss with each role. In our project, he has almost six
linkages with other team members. The interaction network of this stage is showed in
picture 2.
(Guilder system thinking) 5
t—__4 (Case producer) 2
‘4
+> (Assistant, financial or
+, Mogelen 6 accounting work) 2
(Model consulter, SD
experienced practicer) 2
(model consulter) 3 EMBA (model
> ein ee ising) 2
Picture 2: stage 2 network
The project manager must have the courage to takes some risks
If you don’t let them try, there will be no stars. No one suddenly comes to become a
star without any failure or leaming experiences. There must be some knowledge
cumulating process in the leaming process of the new modeler.
Multi-round modeling consensus
There never be one time success, must come and retum for several (2~3) times to
get the model better and better. Before the project begins, modeler and client must have
aconsensus that a good model comes from a good understanding of the mental model
of the structure. Better understanding of the mental model would take some time.
Multi-round modeling would be a good choice to take and novice could also benefit
from the process by deeply understanding the context of the structure and being
familiar with modeling techniques.
Frequently agents interviewing
Keep the relation
Most importance, keep the relation with client members for the chance to deepen
your understanding about the area.
Interaction between model team and client: there types
Routine team meeting
Our modeling team communicates with one client member to exchange model and
financial information. The interaction is showed in picture 3.
Client Modeling team
(Project information process)
Client window 2 ¢——__» Modeler1
Assistant]
(Project financial information process)
Picture 3: Routine interaction
Medium and final report/ presentation/ discussion
Our team members talked directly to client members. And exchange all
information at these times. The linkages between us would be n (modeling member
numbers) multiply m (client member numbers). The report interaction is showed in
picture 4.
Client Modeling team
Client memberl Guilder
Client member2 Partner: consulter
Client member3 Partner: case producer
Modeler
Picture 4: Report interaction
Buy-in process
All of the project must pass the final report that is checked by the client. We hold
many training courses to get the member being familiar with the system thinking
concepts, modeling playing, and system dynamics tools. And we also cooperate with
people already known system dynamics to prompt our client accept our model. The
interaction is showed in picture 5.
Training (beer game, system
thinking, MFS/B&B simulators)
Creating belief of SD, also Men know system dynamics in
create expectation the client
By in [ a - How effectiveness he can accept?
- he design the project and respond to the board men
Strategic modeling or
SD concepts
Picture 5: buy-in process
Modeler's position positive loop
In the normal meetings, there is fewer client company staff came. Each time there
is only one or two department members came. We always talked too fractional and too
detailed in each department's mental model about its story not the whole company’s
hig picture story. Only in medium and final meetings, when professor guilder came,
nearly all related departments then sent members to participate and discuss. Then there
might be a positive loop in the modeling period. That is higher position member touch
with client, higher client member position we could meet. Then richer data we would
get and better model we would build. The positive loop is showed in picture 6.
Modeler's position and reputation
Influence the agents’ confidence and
willingness to participate. *s
q
Influsiice what modeler could gather
ae . from client members by participation
Model's insight and quality eo. we
yumbers and positions.
FY | m 's and positions
i,
The richness of the mental models that
could being induced from the
participative modeling process.
Modeler’s modeling ability
Picture 6: Modeler’s position positive loop
Trade off accepted by agent: G et most priority: even cost less
Y ou can spend less money or resources to get more assistance, help, or services.
The new modeler might spend more time in discussing the modeling project, and he
will put the modeling project as the first priority.
Calibration, verification, and consumeroriented
The most important part of the interaction of the modeler and the client is to make
sure the model reflect the reality. Beside the normal model test techniques like history
behavior match and mental model behind the structure that describes the reasons of
variable behavior pattem such as why maintenance expenses behave like this, our
client might ask us using year to be the simulating wit time, not use season. That’s
because our client only offer year numbers. Such kinds of actions would increase the
probabilities of understanding about the model and design the model to fit the client’s
need.
In harmony with agent’s Organization culture and communication style
Be sure you accommodate yourself to the culture and communication style is very
important. Y ou must be or let them feel you are one of them. That would make your
data gathering action more smoothly and you would get deeper information from them.
Tn our interaction with client, the familiar with rule, understanding client members’
responsibilities, be striving, and need then ask is the main characteristics of our client's
organizational culture. Casually discussion and easy words taking is necessary in
communicating with each other. The arrangement will be displayed in table 3.
Table 3: Organizational culture, communication style, and corresponding actions
Organizational culture and Corresponding actions
communication style
What the organizational culture 1 Meet every nile that show in the contract
(bureaucratic) is
2 They who involved must pay their responsibility to it. Because our project is al
cooperating contract, that make they have to be responsible for it. So you had
better do what ever they want you to do, and show them you really appreciate
what they contribute by changing the product as they ask
3 If they want the ‘effort’ you do, make them feel that you work hard meet them
often, discuss face to face, no matter they are too busy or not.
4 They wont cancel the project, so do not touch the extreme urging them to do
so.
5 Need then ask style of cooperation. If they were too busy, they will watch
what they knew.
Team members go in and out, knowledge car!t deep in. You must know what
you want know and find the right man to ask. The meeting must be held if it is}
teally necessary to gather all the data from all the people. eason comes from
official or formal structure design and job descriptions.
Communication style: when you
discuss.
Use the friendliest words for them to understand, or they will look for the most
‘trivial thing to challenge you. Discuss more casualy, not let them feel pressure.
Multi-round modeling consensus
There never be one time success, must come and retum for several (2~3) times to
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get the model better and better.
Personal characteristics
The new modeler must have ordevelop special personal characteristics (versus
experienced modelers) including courage, fortitude, responsibility, good heart, and
most importantly have religious belief or practice sitting in meditation.
Lesson the pressure
The novice must have lots of pressure comes from less modeling experience. The
new modeler must leam something like:
Forget. If you could not bring about a heb thought, go out for fun, forget all things,
and forget the model. Pressure would deteriorate the situation that the new modeler
meets. Y ou must leam step by step and also expect yourself to grow with this kind of
pace. Man easily fell into one-step concem and want to reach the best, but that can
make you dieing.
Look through different angle. It’s a chance to grow, not a time to disappear a capable
new system dynamics modeler. New modeler must have courage, fortitude, and talked
to yourself even you loss, you won't really loss, you are just the winner, because the
new modeler leam and grow from the process.
Have religious belief or practice sitting in meditation. Situation never go as you wish
and accident is the normal friend. Believe the God, but be prepared. Put down your
insistence, there will be a whole new order guiding you to go or grow. Keep your
responsibilities as the modeler and do what your could do to make progress. Each little
steps would cumulate into a big success.
Every time is a good chance to modify your model Reflect from each discussion or
agents’ requirement and think what it related to model. That could be the chance to
improve the model. The new modeler must have a good heart, look things through
positive side, and believe the critics is the effort people make to get things better not
the action to heckle you.
Personal modeling abilities
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The major special feature of the novice modeler is that he grows and get familiar
with each model-building techniques through the process. Each person has his unique
abilities and characteristics. The novice must do and reflect at the same time to
carefully refine his actions.
Developing from the doing: knowledge deepen and accumulating process
There is always no other better way for modeling ability to be developed from real
doing. It’s a creative process to tum the extemal knowledge into intemal knowledge.
The model error comes from the un-simulating scenario. Never be afraid of making
mistakes. It the chance to leam and become a elite.
Energy focus on one job and on the topic
If you are a modeler, don’t do the accounting job. Be focused How do you become
a better modeler and also get familiar with the system dynamics related methods and
tools? Y ou only have to read the pages familiar with your project needs. Start from the
index and catalogue to look for the useful messages and read them. Don’t spend too
much time read other not so related pages.
Self-reflection of the new learner
Novice must karn from doing and also think at the same time. Take down the notes
as you bring about an idea from your mind (brain), to live with the reference, find the
most related papers, and search through these papers’ references to expand your
database. In the modeling process, it requires independent study ability. So novice
must reflect frequently to himself what I have done and what I would do later.
Stay in one place
Conceptualization, calibration, and verification all takes long time and energy to
finish. So you must stay in one place to focus your time. Stay there, even you do
nothing but wandering. That would make the novice to produce at least little things and
that is the foundation to cumulate big work.
Think both through system thinking and flow-rate concept
How to start modeling through the project? Y ou could begin with the flow concepts
(Kotler, marketing book 11" edition) or system thinking casual loops. We try to
compare the good and bad between them in table 4.
Table 4: good and bad between system thinking and flow-rate concepts
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Approach System thinking Flow-rate concepts
Comparison {Suit person who lack mathematics —_| Contrary
background
Approach: find key variables, Look exactly through real flow of
relationship, and transfer to materials, information, policies.
mathematical model(in the Then just use the mathematics to
transferring process the distinguish —_| describe the reality.
between level and rate variables is
very important)
Easily to communicate with agent | When the agent familiar with
in the early stage when the agent mathematics, start with this could
also lack the mathematics prevent the black box paradox. The
background process could make the model
more white box as possible.
Discussion
Using the novice to model a project is very difficult as Sterman (2000) has
mentioned. But we must admit there are not always situation as we want. Sometimes
we just have to use some abnommal way to reach the same goal. Through the
arrangement of the project we found some characteristics that might be concluded into
some assumptions to help the future research to give more evidences and as the basic
to get some improvements. Our assumptions could be stated as follow:
Infrastructure and modeler quality both important
From the modeling process we could observe that the extemal structure of guild
and agent is as important as intemal disciplines of the modeler.
The benefit of using novice: Win (client)-win (modeler) situation
Through the new modeler modeling process, there will be long-time loyalty and
relationship established between these two parts. Even you only have to spend less for
the network.
Use team to pass through the dark sides
The new modeler may lack significant attention to the important points of the
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process. So modeling team is important in the group modeling process. Team also
would make novice overcome obstacles comes from conceptualizing interview data
and negotiating through defensive routine of the organization culture and policy
system.
Conclusion, research limits, and future research
From this study we suggest some kinds of extemal structure and intemal
disciplines when using novice to build a model. Using team to get through the
modet building process would get the win-win situation. But we also must admit that
the study has some shortcomings might be improved. That could be the classification
method, the timing of notice the extemal structure and intemal disciplines, and
system-thinking trap.
The classify is very subjective
I just classify all my observations into four groups that may simplify our
understanding of this topic. May be using other classify methods we would conclude
into other assumptions. But under this classify type we still have much confidence that
this conclusion still be useful to improve our application effect and understand of the
topic.
The timing of notice the external structure and internal disciplines
We must admit that the process of developing a new star (hope) must know the
timing that what elements nmning the process should notice. What variable should
collocate with each other at when? That still need further study to understand.
Systenr thinking trap
Would we meet any kinds of positive loop, negative loop, or time delay through the
process? Since we have find out the elements when using novice might meets. The
next step is to look for the system-thinking traps we might meet when going through
the process. System thinking loops might give us more guidelines to follow and give us
more chance to successfully complete the process.
All of the topics proposed would be further studies from now and might give more
chance to develop more good modelers and produce more better models with deep
insights.
References
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