Abstract Proceedings, 2007 July 29-2007 August 2

Sys tem
Dynamics
Society

Proceedings of the
25" International Conference
and
50 Anniversary Celebration

July 29 — August 2, 2007
Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Conference Host:

System Dynamics Group
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sloan School of Management
Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Conference Partners:
PA Consulting Group

Worldwide
Conference proceedings sponsored by:
Kolbenschmidt Pierburg

Worldwide
VENTANA son Soe
systemMs, inc. Rogelio Oliva

Robin S. Langer
Jennifer I. Rowe
http://www.vensim.com Joan M. Yanni


Proceedings
of the
25" International Conference of the
System Dynamics Society
and

50" Anniversary Celebration

Proceedings
of the
25" Intemational Conference of the
System Dynamics Society
and

50" Anniversary Celebration

July 29 - August 2, 2007
Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Edited by:
John Sterman, Rogelio Oliva,
Robin S. Langer, Jennifer I. Rowe and Joan M. Y anni

System
Dynamics
Society

©2007, The System Dynamics Society

ISBN 978-0-9745329-7-4

To obtain additional copies of these proceedings, or to learn more about the System Dynamics Society
and the international research conferences, contact:

Roberta L. Spencer, Executive Director

System Dynamics Society

Milne 300 - Rockefeller College

University at Albany, State University of New Y ork
135 Westen Avenue

Albany, New Y ork 12222, United States of America
Phone: + 1.518.442.3865

Fax: + 1.518.442.3398

Email: system.dynamics@ albany.edu

Website: www.systemdynamics.org

Table of Contents

Conference Schedul Handout
Welcome 1
Host, Partners and Or izing C 3
Award Committees 4
Li Reviewer: a}
Vol s 15
Acknowled: of Sp 19
Sy ‘s and Exhibitors 22
SD Career Link SI
Diagram Slam 52
2008 Athens, Greece Conference A it 53
Reading Supporting Material 54
Abstracts*: Listed alphabetically by first author within sections
Papers: Parallel and Poster. 55
Plenary Sessions 174
Special and Convened Sessions 178
Chapter and Special Interest Group Poster Sessions .........:.c.seseeseseseeseeeseeeseees 186
Workshops 194
*Eull works as provided are available on the Society website after the conference.
Index of Authors 200
Conference Venue Floor Plan Handout


Welcome

Dear Colleagues,

Welcome to the 25th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. This year we
return to the birthplace of System Dynamics in order to celebrate 50 years of work in the field.
The growth in interest, applications and activity over that time has been tremendous and
rewarding, but it does mean that we don’t fit comfortably in the hotels closest to MIT. We hope
you will enjoy the Seaport and nearby Boston Harbor.

This year once again the program is a testament to the breadth of applicability of the work done
50 years ago that lead to the publication of “Industrial Dynamics: A Major Breakthrough for
Decision Makers” in the Harvard Business Review. Conference participants come from over 45
different countries. Over the next four days you will have a chance to present, listen to and
discuss system dynamics work presented by academics and practitioners from around the world.

There are a number of activities that will mark the 50th anniversary. Some are in the schedule,
and some will be surprises. Many generations of system dy icists will be in d The
conference is a wonderful opportunity to meet an amazing collection of people. We encourage
you to walk up and say hello to everyone — generally we are a pretty friendly bunch.

To further increase your enjoyment of the conference we have also scheduled a variety of social
events including an informal gathering during registration, a “Neighborhoods of Boston” buffet
on Monday evening, and the Conference Banquet and System Dynamics Talent Show on
Tuesday. We welcome those who may be accompanying conference participants but not
attending the formal sessions. We hope that you will take part in the special events and enjoy
the attractions of Boston and New England. There will be organized activities including a
Freedom Trail walking tour and a guided tour of the MIT campus, where system dynamics and
so many other vital inventions began.

This year 424 volunteer reviewers screened and commented on a record number of submissions.
In addition, many dozens of volunteers worked many hours to ensure a successful conference.
Without their commitment our conference would be impossible. A special thanks goes to all
who helped.

In addition to all our other sponsors and our conference host, the System Dynamics Group at the
MIT Sloan School of Management, we are also very fortunate this year to have two conference
partners, PA Consulting Group and Kolbenschmidt Pierburg. We sincerely appreciate the
enthusiasm and support of all our sponsors.

We hope that you find the conference stimulating and rewarding. We ask that you bring to our
attention anything that may help us to ensure the success of the current conference, as well as
future ones. Thank you for attending, and, once more, welcome!

Best wishes from the conference organizing committee,
Bob Eberlein, Rogelio Oliva, John Sterman, Jack Homer and Roberta Spencer

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society and
50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Host

Conference Host: System Dynamics Group
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sloan School of Management
Cambridge, Massachusetts USA

Partners

Conference Partners: PA Consulting Group Kolbenschmidt Pierburg
Worldwide Locations Worldwide Locations

Organizing Committee

Conference Chair: Robert L. Eberlein
Ventana Systems, Inc.
Harvard, Massachusetts USA

Program Co-Chair: Program Co-Chair:
John D. Sterman Rogelio Oliva

System Dynamics Group Mays Business School

MIT Sloan School of Management Texas A&M University
Cambridge, Massachusetts USA College Station, Texas USA
Workshop Chair: Conference Manager:
Jack B. Homer Roberta L. Spencer
Homer Consulting System Dynamics Society
Voorhees, New Jersey USA Albany, New York USA

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Award Committees

2007 Dana Meadows Award

R. Joel Rahn, Chair

Robert Y. Cavana
Victoria University of Wellington

Andrew Ford
Washington State University

John D. W. Morecroft
London Business School

Krystyna A. Stave

University of Nevada Las Vegas
John D. Sterman

System Dynamics Group

MIT Sloan School of Management

Erich K. O. Zahn
Universitat Stuttgart

2007 Jay W. Forrester Award

Jac A. M. Vennix, Chair
Nijmegen School of Management
Radboud University Nijmegen
Jack Homer

Homer Consulting

Peter M. Milling

Mannheim University

John D. W. Morecroft
London Business School

John D. Sterman
System Dynamics Group
MIT Sloan School of Management

2007 System Dynamics Applications Award

James M. Lyneis, Chair
Worcester Polytechnic Institute

J. Bradley Morrison
Brandeis University

Kim D. Warren
London Business School

50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Eric F. Wolstenholme
Symmetric SD Limited

Erich K. O. Zahn
Universitat Stuttgart

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Submission Reviewers

Ahmed AbdelTawad
AbdelGawad
Egyptian Cabinet IDSC

Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid
Naval Postgraduate School

Emmanuel D. Adamides
University of Patras

John F, Affeldt
Booz Allen Hamilton

Ashish Agarwal
Indira Gandhi National Open
University

Fadl Mohammed Ahmed
Cairo University

Bahadir Akcam
University at Albany

Mahmood Alborzi
Azad Islamic University

Alex Focus Alexander
University of Bergen

Raed Al-Qirem
University of Sunderland

Monica A. Altamirano
Delft University of
Technology

Richard Althouse
David Erway Group

Kristjan Ambroz
Vanguard Strategy

Lianjun An
IBM

Lascelles Anderson
University of Illinois at
Chicago

Santiago Arango
University of Bergen

Carlos A. Ariza
PA Consulting Group

Stefano Armenia
Tor Vergata University Rome

Steven P. Arquitt
University of Queensland

Daniel J. W. Arthur
University of Surrey

Mohamed Askar
American University in Cairo

George A. Backus
Sandia National Laboratories

Walid S. Badr
Mohaseboon

Bent Erik Bakken
Norwegian Defence
Education Command

Bjorn T. Bakken
Norwegian Defence
Leadership Institute

Himadri Banerji
Reliance Energy Ltd

Yaman Barlas
Bogazi¢i University

John A. Barton
John Barton Consulting

Pawel Bartoszezuk
System Research Institute

Andrea Marcello Bassi
Millennium Institute

Steffen Bayer
Imperial College London

Todd BenDor
University of Illinois

Chiara Bernardi
Cattaneo University LIUC

Walt Beyeler
Sandia National Laboratories

Enzo Bivona
University of Palermo

Jason W. Black
GE Global Research

Laura J. Black
Montana State University

J. Robert Bois
Lockheed Martin Corporation

Graziella C. Bonadia
Fundacgao CPqD

Andrei Borshchev
XJ Technologies

Jeffrey Boyer
Plug Power Inc

Peter K. Bradl
University of Applied
Sciences Wuerzburg

Malcolm Brady
Dublin City University

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 5

Reviewers continued

Bill Braun
Cleveland Clinic

Klaus Breuer
Johannes-Gutenberg-Univ
Mainz

Rod Brown
Strategy Dynamics
Consulting

Fernando Buendia
University of the Americas
Puebla

Newton Paulo Bueno
Federal University of Vigosa

James Burke
Argonne National Laboratory

Carlos Capelo
ISCTE

Dawn M. Cappelli
Carnegie Mellon University

Jim Carlton
Newcastle Mater Hospital

Kenneth H. Carpenter
Governor's Traffic Safety
Commission

Angelo Caruso

Annick Castiaux
University of Namur

Steven A. Cavaleri
Central Connecticut State
University

Edoardo Cavalieri-D'Oro
MIT

Robert Y. Cavana
Victoria University of
Wellington

Francesco Ceresia
University of Palermo

Bipin Chadha
Coensys Inc

Catherine Chiong Meza
Delft University of
Technology

Jianxun Chu
University of Science &
Technology of China

Gregory J. Clark
Ford Motor Company

Gianluca Colombo
University of Lugano

Stephen H. Conrad
Sandia National Laboratories

Marcello Contestabile
Imperial College London

David L. Cooke
University of Calgary

Matthew A. Cronin
George Mason University

Didier Cumenal
ISC Paris

Stephen Curram
HVR Consulting Services
Ltd

Christian Luiz Da Silva
UniFAE

6 50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Brian C. Dangerfield
University of Salford

Giovanni M. de Holanda
Fundagao CPqD

Michael L. Deaton
James Madison University

Salima Delhoum
Universitat Bremen

Julia M. Di Stefano
Southern New Hampshire
University

George Dikos
Eugenides Group

Gékhan Dogan
MIT

Richard G. Dudley

Jim Duggan
National University of
Ireland Galway

Radboud J. Duintjer
Tebbens
Harvard University

Josko Dvornik
University of Split

Michael F. Dwyer
University of Nevada Las
Vegas

Isaac Dyner
Universidad Nacional de
Colombia

Robert L. Eberlein
Ventana Systems Inc

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Reviewers continued

Marie Elf
Chalmers University of
Technology

Arun Abraham Elias
Victoria University of
Wellington

R. Evan Ellis
Booz Allen Hamilton Inc

James Ellison
Sandia National Laboratories

John Elter
Plug Power Inc

Philip C. Emmi
University of Utah

Martijn Eskinasi
Atrivé

Joern W. Ewaldt
Barkawi & Partner

Jan Faber
Utrecht University

Jeanne Fair
Los Alamos National
Laboratory

Laércio Ferracioli
Federal University of Espirito

Santo

Lars Finskud
Vanguard Strategy

Diana Fisher
Wilson High School

Michael Fletcher

Fred Flett
JENTEC International

Rogerio Fonseca
Santovito
University of Sao Paulo

Andrew Ford
Washington State University

David N. Ford
Texas A&M University

Tom Lum Forest
Prometheal Systems

Hamid Foroughi
Sharif University of
Technology

Jay Forrest
Jay Forrest Consulting
Strategist

Jay W. Forrester
MIT

Craig Forster
University of Utah

Travis Franck
MIT

Douglas Franco
Econoinvest

Margaret Ann
Fulenwider
CRA International

Valerie Gacogne
Complexio

Peter L. Galbraith
University of Queensland

Jorge Galindo
Dovel Technologies

Rosanna Garcia
Northeastern University

Shayne Gary
Australian Graduate School
of Management

Carmine Garzia
University of Lugano

Fritz Gassmann
Paul Scherrer Institute

Nicholas C. Georgantzas
Fordham University Business
Schools

Ajish George
Center for Functional
Genomics

Navid Ghaffarzadegan
University at Albany

Sameh Ibrahim Gharib
University of Bergen

Anthony H. G. Gill
Phrontis Limited

David F. Gillespie
Washington University in St
Louis

Will Glass-Husain
Forio Business Simulations

Dan Goldner
Ventana Systems Inc

Cleotilde Gonzalez
Carnegie Mellon University

Jose J. Gonzalez
Agder University College

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 7

Reviewers continued

Stefan N. Groesser
University of Berne

Andreas GréBler
Radboud University
Nijmegen

Carolus Griitters
Radboud University
Nijmegen

Burak Giineralp
Stanford University

John W. Gunkler
HPVS LLC

Workneh Hailegiorgis
Siemens

Roger I. Hall
University of Manitoba

Stefan Hallberg
Templog

Charles C. Han
Tamkang University

Hérdur V. Haraldsson
Lund University

Tim Haslett
Monash University

Mark Heffernan
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd

John F. Heinbokel
CIESD LLP

Magdy Helal
University of Central Florida

Hugo A. Hernandez
PDVSA

Gary B. Hirsch
Creator of Learning
Environments

Marna Hoard
Medical Reserve Corps

Maik Hollmann
University of Paderborn

Paul Holmstrém
Paul Holmstrom
Management AB

Siang Lee Hong
Pennsylvania State
University

Peter S. Hoymand
Washington University in St
Louis

Naiyi Hsiao
National Chengchi University

Rueylin Hsiao
National University of
Singapore

Juan M. Huerta
Prospective Decision Models
Inc

Margarita Hurtado
Hernandez

Universidad Panamericana

Lihlian Hwang
Ming Chuan University

Inguna Ievina

Petri Helo Latvia University of
University of Vaasa Agriculture
8 50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

C. Sherry Immediato
Society for Organizational
Learning

Jacob J. Jacobson
Idaho National Laboratory

Greg Jacobus

Thomas Jagalski
Bremen University

Balaji Janamanchi
Texas A&M International
University

Arthur Janssen
ATEL

Eva Jensen
Swedish National Defence
College

Nitin R. Joglekar
Boston University

Paul E. Johnson
University of Minnesota

Scott T. Johnson
BP

Andrew P. Jones
Sustainability Institute

Charles A. Jones
University of Massachusetts
Boston

Lee Jones
Ventana Systems

Wouter Jongebreur
Significant BV

Andreas Patric Jost
DaimlerChrysler AG

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Reviewers continued

Phil Joyce
Swinburne University of
Technology

Jan Juerging
Mannheim University

Robert Kallenberg
Porsche AG

Christian Erik
Kampmann
Copenhagen Business School

Florian Kapmeier
PA Consulting Group

Ozge Karanfil
McGill University

Michel Karsky

Hans Dieter Kasperidus
UFZ Leipzig Halle

Evangelos Katsamakas
Fordham University

Elizabeth K. Keating
Harvard University

Andjelka Kelic
Sandia National Laboratories

Scott Keller
Greer Black Company

Andreas Kemper
European Business School

Naeem U. Khan
University of New South
Wales

Doahoon Kim
Sookmyung Woman's
University

Dong-Hwan Kim
Chung Ang University

Hyunjung Kim
University at Albany

Sang-Joon Kim
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Peter Klaas
Agrogaarden

Miroljub Kljaji¢é
University of Maribor

Andrey I. Koblov
South-Ural State University

Klaus Kocher
Kocher & Gaide

Ulli H. Konig
RWE Energy AG

Davorin Kofjac
University of Maribor

Libor Kolacek
Czech Technical University

Birgit Kopainsky
University of Bergen

Victor V. Korobitsin
Omsk State University

Martin H. Kune
Universidad Adolfo Ibafiez

Ulrich La Roche
La Roche Consulting

Peter Lacey
Whole Systems Partnership

David C. Lane
London School of Economics
& Poli Sci

Richard Langheim
Ramapo College of New
Jersey

Sharon Lansing
New York State Div of Crim
Justice

Ted J. Lawrence
University at Albany

Rene LeClaire
Los Alamos National
Laboratory

Man-Hyung Lee
Chungbuk National
University

Myoung Ho Lee
Han-Kuk University of
Foreign Studies

Tsuey-Ping Lee
Tunghai University

Carlos A. Legna
La Laguna University

Ralph L. Levine
Michigan State University

Lanhai Li
whatIf? Technologies Inc

Shyh-Jane Li
National Sun Yat-Sen
University

Chien-Liang Lin
National Kaohsiung First
University

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 9

Reviewers continued

Keith Thomas Linard
Moorabool Shire Council

Ralf Lippold
BMW AG Plant Leipzig

Howard Lipson
Carnegie Mellon University

Jingjiang Liu
Zhejiang University City
College

Corey Lofdahl
BAE Systems

Luis Lépez
INCAE Graduate School of
Business

David W. Lounsbury
Memorial Sloan-Kettering
Cancer Center

Mohamed Loutfi
University of Sunderland

Gregory A. Love
MITRE Corporation

Weifeng Lu
Nanchang Insititute of
Technology

Luis F. Luna-Reyes
Universidad de las Americas
Puebla

Yufeng Luo
Hohai University

Kambiz E. Maani
University of Auckland

Roderick H. MacDonald
Initiative for System
Dynamics in the Public
Sector

Daniel MacInnis
Raytheon Missile Systems

Louis Macovsky
Dynamic BioSystems LLC

Mohammad Majdalawi
Arab Organization for
Agricultural Development

Abhijit Mandal
Warwick Business School

Martin E. Maren
Global Dynamic Systems

Jason Markham
New Zealand Defence Force

Gianliborio G. Marrone
Juan Martin Garcia
Ignacio J. Martinez-
Moyano

Argonne National Laboratory
Ali Naghi Mashayekhi
Sharif University of
Technology

Geoff McDonnell
Adaptive Care Systems

Debra A. Lyneis

Creative Learning Exchange Stephen B. McIntosh
Cardiff University

James M. Lyneis

Worcester Polytechnic Douglas McKelvie

Institute

10 50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Alan Charles McLucas
Australian Defence Force
Academy

Dennis Meadows
Laboratory for Interactive
Learning

Alexandra Medina-Borja
University of Puerto Rico at
Mayaguez

Arif Mehmood
United Arab Emirates
University

James Melhuish
BAE Systems

Carlos Manuel Méndez
Acosta
Universidad de Belgrano

Esther Menezes
Fundagao CPqD

Luis Javier Miguel
University of Valladolid

Thar A. Miklashevich
Belarusian National
Technical Univ

Stanislava Mildeova
University of Economics in
Prague

Peter M. Milling
Mannheim University

James I. Mills
University of Utah

Bobby Milstein
Centers for Disease Control
& Prevention

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Reviewers continued

Nathan A. Minami
US Army

Jonathan D. Moizer
University of Plymouth

Mohammad T.
Mojtahedzadeh
Attune Group Inc

Edoardo Mollona
Universita degli Studi di
Bologna

Giovan Battista
Montemaggiore
University of Palermo

Tae Hoon Moon
Chung Ang University

Manuel Mora
Autonomous University of
Aguascalientes

Ana Maria Mora Luna
Medellin Metropolitan Area

Michiya Morita
Gakushuin University

Marciano Morozowski
Filho
W!se Systems

Erling Moxnes
University of Bergen

Mara Mulinari
Universidade Federal do
Espirito Santo

Ante M. Munitic
University of Split

Frank K Murdock
FKM Consulting

Rodney S. Myers
US Navy Personnel
Command

Magne Myrtveit
Dynaplan AS

Dharmaraj Navaneetha
Krishnan
MIT

Serge Henri Nehme

Paul Newton
Boeing Company

Xiaowen Ni
Nanjing Normal University
High School

Patricia Ochoa
HEC - Université de
Lausanne

Cristiane Ogushi
Fundacgao CPqD

Camilo Olaya
Universidad de los Andes

David O'Neal
Management Alternatives

Gerard O'Reilly
Bell Laboratories Alcatel-
Lucent

Nathaniel Osgood
University of Saskatchewan

Leeza Osipenko
University of Warwick

Nordin B. Othman
University Putra Malaysia

Peter A. Otto
Dowling College

Alexander Outkin
Los Alamos National
Laboratory

Ozgur Ozkan

Powersim Solutions

David W. Packer
Systems Thinking
Collaborative

Ozge Pala
Radboud University
Nijmegen

Theresa Pardo
University at Albany

Sang Hyun Park
University of Nebraska
Lincoln

Jamshid Parvizian
Isfahan University of
Technology

Kalyan S. Pasupathy
University of Missouri

Alberto Paucar-Caceres
Manchester Metropolitan
University

Oleg V. Pavlov
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Janecke Pemmer
Powersim Software AS

Francisco J. Perez
OptimesGroup

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society i

Reviewers continued

Gloria Pérez Salazar
Tecnologico de Monterrey

Alessandro Persona
University of Padua

Steve Peterson
The Peterson Group

Lazaros V. Petrides
University of Salford

David G. Pfeiffer
Option Six

Seckin Polat
Istanbul Technical University

Nikolaos Pomonis
University of Patras

P. Jeffrey Potash
CIESD LLP

Davide Provenzano
University of Bergen

Erik Pruyt
Delft University of
Technology

Ying Qian
Agder University College

Rob Quaden
Carlisle Public Schools

Hassan Qudrat-Ullah
York University

Muhammad Azeem
Qureshi
University of Bergen

Hal Rabbino
Strategic Clarity

Hazhir Rahmandad
Virginia Tech

R. Joel Rahn

F. Vittorio Raimondi
Vanguard Strategy

Kk. Raman
Boris Ramos

Jorgen Randers
Norwegian School of
Management

Juan C. Rego
Nat’! Research Council of
Argentina

André Reichel

C. Michael Reilly
Investment Process Modeler

Eliot Rich
University at Albany

George P. Richardson
University at Albany

John M. Richardson
American University

James L. Ritchie-
Dunham
Institute for Strategic Clarity

Donald Robadue
Coastal Resources Center

Scott F. Rockart
Duke University

12 50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Lewlyn Rodrigues
Manipal Institute of
Technology

Thomas R. Rohleder
University of Calgary

Jay K. Rosengard
Harvard University

Etiénne A. J. A.
Rouwette
Radboud University
Nijmegen

Guillermo Rueda
Portland State University

Alexander V. Ryzhenkov
Russian Academy of
Sciences

Khalid Saeed
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Mohamed Mostafa Saleh
Cairo University

Javier Santos
Tecnun - University of
Navarra

Rui Ferreira Santos
New University of Lisbon

Kemal Sarica
Bogazici University

Jose Mari Sarriegi
Tecnun - University of
Navarra

Agata Sawicka
Agder University College

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Reviewers continued

Ali Kerem Saysel
Bogazi¢i University

Martin F. G.
Schaffernicht
Universidad de Talca

Tim Scheffmann

Michael Schwandt
Virginia Polytechnic Inst &
State Univ

Markus Schwaninger
University of St Gallen

Habib Sedehi
University of Rome

Maria Cristina Serrano
Universidad Autonoma de
Bucaramanga

Michelle Shields
Telecom New Zealand

Timothy J. Shimeall
CERT Situational Awareness
Team

William Siemer
Cornell University

Mong Soon Sim
DSO National Laboratories

Martin Simon
ipgroup

Andrej Skraba
University of Maribor

Birgitte Snabe
Mannheim University

M. Dolores Soto-Torres
Universidad de Valladolid

J. Michael Spector
Florida State University
Thomas Spengler
Technische Universitat
Braunschweig

Yeoryios A. Stamboulis
Krystyna A. Stave
University of Nevada Las

Vegas

Katherine Steel
MIT

Jiirgen Strohhecker
HfB Business School of
Finance and Mgt

Jeroen Struben
MIT

Lees N. Stuntz
Creative Learning Exchange

Toru Suetake
Japan Future Research Center

Marek Susta
Proverbs Corporation

Mats G. Svensson
Lund University

Fabian Szulanski

Mihaela Tabacaru
University of Bergen

Md Yusoff Taib
Zetta Consultants Sdn Bhd

Yutaka Takahashi
Senshu University

Burcu Tan
University of Texas at Austin

Muhammad Tasrif
Bandung Institute of
Technology
Kathryn S. Taylor

Timothy R.B. Taylor
Texas A&M University

Abdi Suryadinata Telaga
Astra Honda Motor

Victor Thombs
Decision Dynamics Inc

James P. Thompson

Kate J. Thompson
University of Sydney

Kimberly Thompson
Harvard University/MIT

Warren W. Tignor
Jeff W. Trailer
California State University
Chico

Denis Tréek
Jozef Stefan Institute

W. Scott Trees
Siena College

Kostas Triantis
Virginia Tech

Ya-tsai Tseng
Tunghai University

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 13

Reviewers continued

Yi-Ming Tu
National Sun Yat-Sen
University

David Turbow
University of California
Irvine

Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
PSI

Imrana A. Umar
Powersim Solutions

Keyvan Vakili
Sharif University of
Technology

Cornelia van Daalen
Delft University of
Technology

Luc Van Den Durpel
LISTO bvba

Theo van Mullekom

Nuno Videira
New University of Lisbon

Klaus Ole Vogstad
Agder Energi

Andreas Vox

John J. Voyer
University of Southern Maine

Wayne Wakeland
Portland State University

Robert J. Walker
Delsys Research Group Inc
Qifan Wang

Fudan University

Wei-Tsong Wang
National Cheng Kung
University

Kim D. Warren
London Business School

Henry Birdseye Weil
MIT

David Wheat
University of Bergen

Anthony S. White
Middlesex University

Elin Whitney-Smith
Netalyst Inc

Sanith Wijesinghe
New England Complex
Systems Institute

Ines Winz
University of Auckland

Ellen Wolfe
Resero Consulting

Kazem Yaghootkar
Manchester Business School

Kaoru Yamaguchi
Doshisha University
Athanasios
Yannacopoulos
University of the Aegean

Seung-Jun Yeon
Electronics and Telecom
Research Institute

Carlos Yepez
Brandeis University

Joseph Yoon
Institute for International
Commerce

William Young
US Air Force

Géneng Yiicel
Delft University of
Technology

Aldo Zagonel
Sandia National Laboratories

Erich K. O. Zahn
Universitat Stuttgart

Longbin Zheng
University of Bergen

Agnieszka Ziomek

Yangang Xing Poznan University of
Khaled Wahba University of Dundee Economics
Cairo University conomics
Feifei Xu
University of Bergen
If you are i in reviewing for future r please contact the System Dynamics Society at
system. jalbany.edu including your name, contact information and area(s) of expertise.
14 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Volunteers

Jeanette C. Abad

PA Consulting Group
Freedom Trail Walking Tour
Guide

Bahadir Akcam
University at Albany
Student Volunteer

Monica A. Altamirano
Delft University of
Technology

Session Reporter

Abril Alejandria Alvaro
ITESM Campus Guadalajara
Student Volunteer

Edward G. Anderson
University of Texas
Thread Chair

Stefano Armenia
Tor Vergata University Rome
Session Reporter

Victor Auterio
Boeing Company
Session Reporter

Souleyman Bah
e-integrate
Conference Photographer

Bent Erik Bakken
Norwegian Defence
Academy

Thread Chair

Binita Bhattacharjee
BP
Session Reporter

Laura J. Black
Montana State University
Thread Chair

Joost Paul Bonsen
MIT Visiting Scholar
MIT Waling Tour Guide

Bill Braun
Cleveland Clinic
Session Reporter

Derek Burrows
Evans & Peck
Session Reporter

Deborah Campbell
System Dynamics Society
CareerLink Bulletin Board
Coordinator

Myong-Hun Chang
Cleveland State University
Session Reporter

Dean L. Christensen
Cyber Learning Corporation
Conference Photographer

Jianxun Chu

Univ of Science &
Technology of China
Session Reporter

Henry P. Cole
University of Alaska
Fairbanks

Session Reporter

Gianluca Colombo
University of Lugano
Session Reporter

Diana Damyanova
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Student Volunteer

Giiven Demirel
Bogazici University
Session Reporter

Rajat Dhawan
University of Sydney
Session Reporter

Julia M. Di Stefano
Southern New Hampshire
University

Thread Chair

Vedat G. Diker
University of Maryland
Thread Chair

Jim Duggan
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Session Reporter

Robert L. Eberlein
Ventana Systems Inc
Web-based Submission
System

Burak Eskici
Bogazici University
Session Reporter
Student Volunteer

David R. Exelby

HVR Consulting Services
Ltd

Thread Chair

Thomas Fiddaman
Ventana Systems
Thread Chair

Tom Lum Forest
Prometheal Systems
Session Reporter

Shayne Gary

Australian Graduate School
of Mgmt

Thread Chair

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

15

Vol % anned

Carmine Garzia
University of Lugano
Session Reporter

Navid Ghaffarzadegan
University at Albany
Session Reporter

Student Volunteer
CareerLink Bulletin Board
Assistant

Usman A. Ghani
Advanced Integrated Mgt
Strategies LLP

Session Reporter

Paulo Gongalves
University of Miami
Thread Chair

Jose J. Gonzalez
Agder University
Thread Chair

Stefan N. Groesser
University of Berne
Session Reporter
PhD Colloquium
Coordinator

James Hacunda
EMC
Session Reporter

Savas Hadjipavlou
Home Office
Session Reporter

Tim Haslett

Monash University

Beer Game World
Championship Coordinator

Mark Heffernan
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
Session Reporter

John F. Heinbokel

Magdy Helal
University of Central Florida
Session Reporter

Gary B. Hirsch
Creator of Learning
Environments
Session Reporter
Thread Chair

Jack B. Homer
Homer Consulting
Thread Chair
Modeling Assistance
Workshop Organizer

Megan Hopper
University of Nevada Las
Vegas

Session Reporter

Niyousha Hosseinichimeh
University at Albany
Student Volunteer

Peter S. Hovmand
Washington University in St
Louis

Session Reporter

Susan Howick
University of Strathclyde
Session Reporter

Qian Hu
University of Bergen
Session Reporter

Lizhen Huang
Fuzhou University
Session Reporter

Eva Jensen

Swedish National Defence
College

Thread Chair

Andrew P. Jones

CIESD LLP Sustainability Institute

Thread Chair Diagram Slam Coordinator
System Dynamics Talent
Show

16 50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

July 29

Maggie Kean
Keanco
Session Reporter

Hyunjung Kim
University at Albany
Volunteer Coordinator

Birgit Kopainsky
University of Bergen
Session Reporter

Rudolf Kulhavy
Academy of Sciences of the
Czech Rep

Session Reporter

Man-Hyung Lee
Chungbuk National
University

Session Reporter

Chao-Yueh Liu
University of Bergen
Student Volunteer

Kathleen Lusk Brooke
Center for the Study of
Success

Session Reporter

John Lyneis
MIT
Student Volunteer

Debra A. Lyneis
Creative Learning Exchange
Session Reporter

Roderick H. MacDonald
Initiative for SD in the Public
Sector

Modeling Assistance
Workshop Organizer

Marion McGregor
Canadian Memorial
Chiropractic College
Session Reporter

August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Volunteers continued

James Melhuish
BAE Systems
Navigator Program
Organizer

Erling Moxnes
University of Bergen
Thread Chair

Charles K. Nartey
University of Ghana
Session Reporter

Okechukwu Stanlislous
Nnoli

University of Strathclyde
Session Reporter

Michael Okrent
Southern Connecticut State
University

Session Reporter

Nathaniel Osgood
University of Saskatchewan
Thread Chair

Hye Yeon Park
MIT
Student Volunteer

Oleg V. Pavlov
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Session Reporter
Thread Chair

Sergio A. Pefialoza
Altar Consultores SC
Session Reporter

P. Jeffrey Potash
CIESD LLP
Thread Chair

Devendra Potnis
University at Albany
Student Volunteer

Jack Pugh

Retired

Conference Photographer
Webmaster

Michael J. Radzicki
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Thread Chair

Hazhir Rahmandad
Virginia Tech

Session Reporter
Workshop Coordinator

R. Joel Rahn
Session Reporter
Thread Chair

C. Michael Reilly
Investment Process Modeler
Session Reporter

George P. Richardson
University at Albany
Thread Chair

Scott F. Rockart

Duke University

Session Reporter

Thread Chair

Diagram Slam Coordinator

Jose Mari Sarriegi
Tecnun - University of
Navarra

Thread Chair

Jeremy B. Sato
Washington University
Session Reporter

Bonnie Kopolow Stansen
Washington University in St.
Louis

Session Reporter

Anas Tawileh
Cardiff University
Session Reporter

Jeff W. Trailer
California State University
Chico

Thread Chair

Burak Turkgulu
University at Albany
Student Volunteer

Chintan Vaishnav
MIT

PhD Colloquium
Coordinator

John J. Voyer
University of Southern Maine
Session Reporter

Ming-pin Wang
MITRE Corporation
Session Reporter

Helen Wolfe
Post University
Session Reporter

Géneng Yiicel
Delft University of
Technology
Session Reporter

Aldo Zagonel
Sandia National Laboratories
Session Reporter

Nicole Zimmermann
Mannheim University
Student Volunteer

Many thanks to every volunteer for their time and energy.
Our apologies if we inadvertently omitted anyone from this extensive list. If you are interested in
volunteering for future conferences, please contact the System Dynamics Society at
system.dynamics@albany.edu; include your name and contact information.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 17

Acknowledgment of Sponsors

Conference Host

=_——rs System Dynamics Group
NUT )=©Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MITSloan Sloan School of Management

MANAGEMENT

Conference Partners

Sponsor of Banquet and

Consulting ="
Grou

KOLBENSCHMIDT
spiior 9 erat spt PIERBURG

and Neighborhoods of Boston Buffet

Major Sponsors

Sandia
National
Laboratories VENTANA

A Department of Energy syste MS, ine.

National Laboratory

Sponsor of Chapter and Sponsor of Printing Conference
Special Interest Group Special Poster Session Proceedings and PhD Colloquium

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 19

Mid-level Sponsors

*$ Forio
e

Business Simulations

Sponsor of Audiovisual Services

Advanced Distance Learning Network

Sponsor of Thursday Workshops

Exhibitors

Amber Blocks, Ltd.

e-integrate

Golds®:

SAN |
G7 'SEe

a 2 | -?
AA OHASEAOON?
Business and Financial Consultancies
Egypt & Middle East.

Advanced Integrated
Management Strategies, LLC. and

Leading Thought. Leading Business.

Ge,

INTERNATIONAL

a
Nn EVANS & PECK

think through the future

o

HEALTH MARKET SCIENCE

JantzMorgan

PEARSON |.

Education
New Zealand

in association with

Kambiz Maani and Bob Cavana

20 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Exhibitors continued

4) ww
Powersim PaQwenksim
Raytheon S
Integrated Defense Systems ="

organizational learning

») VANGUARD | Best
strategydynamics STRATEGY ANYLOGIC®

Additional Sponsors

ic GC @

Sponsor of Snack Bars

International Society
Sponsor of Snack Bars y

of the System Sciences
V nd N3=

\ National Business Products
Lane

ne Sponsor of
Conference Note Pads
Sponsor of Partial Printing of PEGASUS
Conference Brochures | ead aun unenriONe
—a

SEAPORT
Sponsor of Discounted Meals

and Scholarship Guest Rooms
PROJECT PERFORMANCE

SS
INTERNATIONAL WILEY ae nae
&y InterScience®

DISCOVER SOMETHING GREAT

Many organizations and individuals contributed to this conference. We wholeheartedly thank our
sponsors and encourage you to thank their representatives during the conference. Please see contact
information for conference sponsors and exhibitors on the following pages.

Our Sincere Thanks To All Our Sponsors

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 27

Sponsors and Exhibitors

AIMS, lle. and
Confluent, llc.

3549 West Walnut Hill Lane Suite 2065

Irving Texas 75038 USA
Phone: + 1 972 871 8417
Fax: +1 972 692 7446
www.usmanaghani.com and
www.confluente.com

Amber Blocks Ltd.

145 East 48th Street Suite 30C
New York New York 10017
USA

Phone: + 1 212 593 3110

Fax: +1 212 593 0441

Atkins Nutritionals, Inc.
Melville New York 11747
USA

Phone: + 1 631 953 4000
Fax: +1 631 953 4001
www.atkins.com

BP
Worldwide
www.bp.com

Clif Bar Inc.

1610 Sth Street

Berkeley, California 94710

USA

Phone: + 1 800 CLIFBAR
and +1 510 558 7855

www.clifbar.com

CRA International, Inc.
200 Clarendon Street T-33
Boston Massachusetts 02116
USA

Phone: + 1 617 425 3000
Fax: +1 617 425 3132
www.crai.com

22 50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Decisio Consulting Inc
201 Linden Street 3202

Fort Collins Colorado 80524
USA

Phone: + 1 719 332 2591
www.decisio.com

e-integrate

Rue Edouard Olivier, 20
1170, Brussels

Belgium

Phone: + +32.2.380.96.58
Fax: ++32.2.380.96.58
Mail: info@e-integrate.com

Evans & Peck Pty Ltd

20/390 Eastern Valley Way
Roseville New South Wales 2069
Australia

Phone: + 612 9882 0527

Fax: +612 9417 8850
www.evanspeck.com

Forio Business Simulations
2320 Jones Street

San Francisco California 94133
USA

Phone: + 1 415 440 7500

Fax: +1 415 354 3457
www.forio.com

Global Strategy Dynamics Ltd.

Two Farthings, Aylesbury Road

Monks Risborough, Buckinghamshire HP27 0JS
UK

Phone: + 44 (0)1844 275 518

Fax: +44 (0)1844 275 507
www.strategydynamics.com

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Sponsors and Exhibitors continued

GoldSim Technology Group
22516 SE 64th Place Suite 110
Issaquah WA 98027

USA

Phone: + 1 425 295 6985

Fax: +1 425 642 8073
www.goldsim.com

Health Market Sciences
2700 Horizon Drive, Suite 200
King of Prussia PA 19406
USA

Phone: + 1 800.593.4467

Fax: +1 610.940.4003
www.healthmarketscience.com

isee systems

Wheelock Office Park

31 Old Etna Road, Suite 5N
Lebanon New Hampshire 03766
USA

Phone: + 1 603 448 4990

Fax: +1 603 448 4992
www.iseesystems.com

ISSS

International Society for the Systems
Sciences

47 Southfield Road

Pocklington, York YO42 2XE

UK

Phone: + 44 (0)1759 302718

Fax: +44 (0)1759 302718

www.isss.org

Jantz Morgan LLC

253 Pleasant Street

Arlington Massachusetts 02476
USA

Phone: + 1 781 643 6027

Fax: +1 703 200 6598
www.jantzmorgan.com

John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Atrium, Southern Gate
Chichester West Sussex PO19 8SQ
UK

Phone: + 44 (0)1243 779777

Fax: +44 (0)1243 775878
www.wiley.com

Kolbenschmidt Pierburg
Worldwide
www.kspg.com

Lane Press of Albany

11 Kairnes Street

Albany New York 12205
USA

Phone: + 1 518 438 7834
Fax: +1 518 438 3942
www.lanepressofalbany.com

Ma haceh Busi & Fi sal
Consultancies

8 Raouf St from Algazaer St

New Maadi Cairo

Egypt

Phone: + 202 705 7053

Fax: +202 705 7053
www.mohasboon.com

National Business Promotions, Inc.
19 Colvin Avenue

Albany New York 12206

USA

Phone: + 1 518 459 5270

1 800 666 2301

Fax: +1 518 489 3047
www.nbp-promotions.com

PA Consulting Group

One Memorial Drive

Cambridge MA 02142

USA

and additional worldwide locations
Phone: + 1 617 225 2700

Fax: +1 617 225 2631
www.paconsulting.com

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 23

's and Exhibitors

hik + q

Pearson Education New Zealand
in association with

Kambiz Maani & Bob Cavana
67 Apollo Drive

Rosedale North Shore City 0632
Private Bag 102 902 North Shore
North Shore City 0745

New Zealand

Phone: + 09 442 7400

Fax: +09 442 7406
www.pearsoned.co.nz

Pegasus Communications, Inc.
One Moody Street

Waltham Massachusetts 02453-5339
USA

Phone: + 1 781 398 9700

Fax: +1 781 894 7175
www.pegasuscom.com

Powersim Software AS
P.O. box 125

N-5871 Nyborg, Bergen
Norway
www.powersim.com

Powersim Solutions, Inc.
585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon Virginia 20170
USA

Phone: + 1 703 467 0910
Fax: +1 703 467 0912
www.powersimsolutions.com

Project Performance International
PO Box 2385

Ringwood North , Victoria 3134
Australia

Phone: + 1 888 772 5174

Fax: +1 888 772 5191

www.ppi-int.com

24 50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems
50 Apple Hill Drive

Tewksbury, Massachusetts

USA

Phone: + 1 978 858 5000
www.raytheon.com

Edward Roberts MIT and
Nancy Roberts Lesley University
USA

Sandia National Laboratories
Albuquerque New Mexico
USA

www.sandia.gov

Seaport Hotel

One Seaport Lane

Boston Massachusetts 02210
USA

Phone: + 877 SEAPORT
www.seaportboston.com

System Dynamics Group

MIT Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street

Cambridge Massachusetts 02142

USA

http://web.mit.edu/sdg/www

SoL

The Society for Organizational Learning
25 First St, Suite 414

Cambridge Massachusetts 02141-1802

USA

Phone: + 1 617 300 9500

Fax: +1 617 354 2093

www.solonline.org

Cindy and John Sterman
USA

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Sponsors and Exhibitors continued

Swiss Reinsurance Company

Worldwide
www.swissre.com

Vanguard Strategy
33 Soho Square
London W1D 3QU
UK

Phone: + 44 20 7478 3380
Fax: +44 20 7478 3399
www.vanguardstrategy.com

Ventana Systems, Inc.

60 Jacob Gates Road
Harvard Massachusetts 01451
USA

Phone: + 1 508 651 0432
Fax: +1 508 650 5422
www.vensim.com

Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI)
100 Institute Road

Worcester Massachusetts 01609-2280

USA

Phone: + 1.508.831.6789

Fax: +1.508.831.5881

www.online.wpi.edu

XJ Technologies Company Ltd.
Office 410, 49 Nepokorennykh Ave.
St. Petersburg 195220
Russia
Phone: + 7 812 441 3105

and +7 812 441 3106
Fax: +7 812 441 3107
www.xjtek.com

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 25

Award-winning

global consulting

PA Consulting Group works with clients from insight to
implementation — delivering unique industry insights and
end-to-end solutions. We bring new ideas that take our
clients beyond their current thinking, and we design and
implement innovative solutions to achieve lasting change
and impact. At PA, we see projects right through to the
finish line — and beyond.

From technology solutions to international development to our own portfolio

of venture companies, PA's expertise helps clients maximize the return on their
investments. As a leading management, systems and technology consulting firm,
PA builds strategies for the creation and capture of shareholder and customer
value and helps clients accelerate business growth through innovation and the
application of technology. Our industry sectors include:

* energy * government * manufacturing

+ finance + healthcare * telecoms

PA has won seven awards at the latest Management Consultancies Association
Best Management Practice Awards for excellence in client work, including

Overall Winner for the best consulting assignment of the year. This extends our
winning streak to seven years in a row, and reflects our pursuit of excellence, our
independence, and our focus on client value, making us the leading management
consulting firm operating in the UK, the US and around the world.

www.paconsulting.com

Strategy and market modeling
Forecasting and understanding markets and
business operations in complex and uncertain
environments, to inform strategy development
and pricing decisions.

Business and performance modeling
Modeling business processes and people flows
to alleviate bottlenecks, improve quality and
reduce cost, and to help manage performance
more strongly.

Option appraisal and

portfolio optimization

Evaluating project options and investment
opportunities to ensure value for money and/or
maximum return on investment, and to ensure
business objectives are achieved.

Consulting
Group

Complex project simulation

Analyzing and better managing the key causes of
project uncertainty — complexity and disruptions —
through simulation modeling of project dynamics
and the Rework Cycle.

Resource planning and scheduling
Delivering the effective use of people, equipment
and other limited resources, to minimize cost and
release latent capacity.

Contact us

For more information, please contact
Sharon Els at +1 617 225 2700

or e-mail at sharon.els@paconsulting.com.
One Memorial Drive

Cambridge, MA 02139

Tel: +1 617 225 2700

Fax: +1 617 225 2631
www.paconsulting.com

sion Contr

inum Blocks

Working for drivers,
and for the environment

Every day Kolbenschmidt Pierburg helps people get where
they need to go through thoughtful engineering... while living
up to our responsibility to be good stewards of the earth.

Our powertrain technologies — pistons, bearings, pumps,
and emission control products — help make vehicles

more earth-friendly, while enhancing the overall driving
experience. In gasoline and diesel applications, alternate
fuels and hybrid programs, OEMs specify Kolbenschmidt
Pierburg to improve fuel economy, emissions, performance
and warranty costs.

Here in North America, our operations combine the strengths
of five specialized business units and 30 global locations.
All dedicated to balancing the needs of drivers and our
environment.

www.kspg.com

Kolbenschmidt Pierburg
salutes the
System Dynamics organization

50 years of
experience in thoughtful planning
for the future

Sandia National Laboratories

Host of the 2009 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Sandia’s Z machine, the world's most powerful X-ray source, is used for fusion energy
research and to test the effects of radiation on materials.

Sandia National Laboratories is one of America's premier research
and development laboratories. Our core purpose is to secure a
peaceful and free world through technology.

Since Sandia was established in Albuquerque, NM, in 1945 it has
grown into a broad national security laboratory encompassing a
variety of technologies and programs. Our work involves missions
in these key areas:

IH Nuclear Weapons and Nonproliferation
I Defense Systems and Assessment

i Energy and Resources

i Homeland Security

Sandia works for, and partners with, the Department of Energy, the
Department of Defense, and the Department of Homeland Security.
We also work closely with industry, universities, and other govern-
ment agencies to bring new technologies to the marketplace. The
Labs may negotiate with partners to sign cooperative RaD agree-
ments that permit the Labs to collaborate on mutually beneficial
research. Other options for pursuing shared interests include licens-
ing agreements, technical assistance, use: i unique Sandia facilities,
} dabflund fi

technical personnel and

Sandia has about 8,600 employees, and our workforce consists of
highly educated and skilled engineers, scientists, and technologists.
About 18 percent of our employees hold doctoral degrees, and about
30 percent hold master's degrees.

System Dynamics at Sandia

Sandia has been active in system dynamics since 1975. Today Sandia
is highly vested in SD-based studies of critical infrastructure protec-
tion, energy economics, and water resources management. Efforts to
understand the dynamics of coupled infrastructures, examine alterna-
tive energy sources, and highlight short- versus long-term trade-offs
in strategy and decision making are currently funded at the level of
millions of dollars annually.

Modeling for Water & Energy Decision Support
System Dynamics modeling for water and energy decision support
has focused on the issue of sustainability. An international effort to
build a high-level model of water resources in China, and a local
initiative to model household water conservation in the Rio Grande
Basin of New Mexico, have spun off many other water resource
management studies, both domestically and abroad, The energy
models have been used to contrast alternative, renewable energy
sources against petroleum-based fuels.

A Global Energy Futures Model simulates key aspects of nuclear and
non-nuclear energy, nuclear materials storage and disposition, global
nuclear-materials management, and nuclear-proliferation risk, along
with oil, gas, coal, greenhouse gas emissions, and other measures

of environmental impact. The model has been used by government
officials to simulate future energy trends and has created interest

in bio-fuel and renewable fuel studies, as well as integrated water,
energy, and food modeling projects.

These multi disciplinary projects have been client based and stake-
holder-driven. The assumptions embedded in the models have been
scrutinized by a gamut of scientists and experts. A groundbreaking
effort is under way to integrate system dynamics, border gradients
models, and spatially explicit modeling environments, such as GIS.

Modeling for Critical Infrastructure Protection
Today's open and technologically complex society includes a wide
array of critical infrastructures. Many have historically been physi-
cally and logically separate systems that had little interdependence.
Asa result of advances in information technology and the necessity
of improved efficiency, however, these infrastructures have become
d and interlink

Created new and possibly cascading vulnerabilities.

d. These same advances have

of i it inistratic contract

--ACO4-94AL85000. SAND No, 2007-3254P.

States Department.


Sandia National Laboratories is home to the National Infrastructure
Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), established to integrate
the national laboratories’ expertise in modeling and simulating com-
plex systems. System dynamics is an important modeling capability
used to quantify and evaluate the effects of infrastructures and their
interdependencies on supply and demand under different conditions

Given a specific threat or vulnerability scenario, the model-based
analyses estimate the potential magnitude, location, and timing of
disruptions. Further, the analyses establish propagations through-
out infrastructures and national regions, examine limiting factors,
capacities, and redundancies and quantify overall consequences. The
models incorporate the feedbacks created by the interdependencies
and their net effects on supply and demand balances. They also aim
to identify unintended consequences of policy

responses.

Critical infrastructure protection studies using
system dynamics modeling include, among
others

fie

® Port security and long-term economic viability

1 Loss of multiple telecommunication assets

@ Social and economic effects of animal and
plant diseases

® Physical disruptions due to natural disasters

=a Ss ence}

Sandia National Laboratories is
home to the National Infrastructure
Simulation and Analysis Center

In sare with other National Tel anaes universities, and
businesses in the Southwest region of the US, we are excited to host
the 2009 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
in Albuquerque, NM. This pivotal event will help consolidate and
enhance the use of system dynamics at the national laboratories and
encourage its use in national policy making.

Information
For more about Sandia,

visit us at www.sandia.gov.

An overview booklet is
available by contacting the
Public Relations and Communi-
cations Center(505) 844-4902.

@ Hz.

Sandia
National
Laboratories


from

Ventana Systems, Inc.

Welcome to the 50” A nniversary Conference of the System Dynamics Society. It
is an honor to be a part of this wonderful celebration.

Ventana has been a proud sponsor of the System Dynamics Society since 1988.
We first exhibited at the 1990 Boston Conference held at Pine Manor College and
have been a sponsor of the conference since that opportunity became available. We
continue to strive to make it easier to study and practice system dynamics to the
highest possible standards. From Vensim PLE, which is designed for those
learning system dynamics to Vensim DSS which supports the needs of the masters
in the field Ventana provides the software you need to do things right.

Vensim is available in the following configurations:

Vensim PLE

Vensim PLE (for Personal Learning Edition) is optimized for teaching and learning system
dynamics. With a simplified user interface and only a small number of options it is the ideal
product for classroom use. From K-12 to introductory graduate level courses Vensim PLE is
what we recommend. Though it has a simple interface, Vensim PLE gives you the power you
need to build and analyze models. With no restrictions on model size or complexity Vensim
PLE is completely sufficient for most student models. Vensim PLE is free for educational use
and personal learning and Ventana is committed to keeping it that way.

VENTANA

systems, inc

Vensim PLE Plus

Vensim PLE Plus shares the same simplified interface as Vensim PLE. In addition to what is in
PLE, PLE Plus adds the ability to hide and expose structural elements, connect to spreadsheets,
run games and perform sensitivity simulations. It is ideal for creating models that can be
distributed with the V ensim Model Reader and for doing a wide variety of analysis of relatively
simple models.

Vensim Professional

In addition to a more flexible user interface V ensim Professional supports subscripts, which
means that you can develop models for more complicated situations effectively and efficiently.
It also has optimization capabilities that allow for the calibration of models to data and the
selection of model parameters to optimize metrics of performance. It has the power you need to
develop complete professional models to attack complex problems.

Vensim DSS

Vensim DSS (which stands for Decision Support System) is the top-of-the-line V ensim product.
It is extensible, allowing you to add in your own function, supports compiled simulation for
increased speed, integrates with databases using ODBC and provides the tools you need to write
customized interfaces to your model. This combination of speed, extensibility and presentation
options make Vensim DSS the tool of choice for the dedicated professional.

Vensim Model Reader

The Vensim Model Reader is free software that allows you to share your models and model
based applications with others. By publishing a model or application you can provide users with
a single file that contains everything they need to run your model and see the results. It supports
models that use subscripts and spreadsheet connectivity which means that you can provide those
who do not have Vensim with a run-only version of almost any model you develop.

In addition to the Vensim software, Ventana provides a full range of consulting
services. Please contact us for more information.

Ventana Systems, Inc. Phone 508 651 0432
60 J acob Gates Road Fax 508 650 5422
Harvard MA 01451 vensim@ vensim.com
USA http://www.vensim.com

Experience Vensim yourself
Pick up a CD from our table in the Exhibition Area

Proud Host of the 25th International
Conference of the System Dynamics Society

MIT

ee j
$ Forio
@ Business Simulations
Stop by our booth for a demonstration of Forio Broadcast.

Financials | Supply

Manufacturer 2 (Product) aI SS = ie

gional Status for 2008

Offerings Comparizon for

Unit Share

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Real World System Dynamics Strategy James Lyneis, Ph.D. — Consultant; Faculty, WPI
Dynamics Michael Radzicki, Ph.D. — Faculty, WPI; Past President, SDS
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Sponsors of Systems Thinking
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Best wishes to all the students, who are the future of system dynamics.

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The International Society for the Systems Sciences

51* Annual Meeting, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan

August 5-10, 2007

The International Society for the Systems Sciences (ISSS) is entering its

second half-century of interdisciplinary collaboration and synthesis of systems

sciences. Based on fifty years of tremendous interdisciplinary research from

the scientific study of complex systems to interactive approaches in

management and community development, the next conference in Tokyo,

Japan, the 51st annual meeting, will take the theme “Integrated Systems Sciences: Systems Thinking,
Modeling and Practice”. The conference will attempt to promote systems sciences as an approach to
complexity in a broad sense, identified in organizations, communities and societies, and their
environments, in such a holistic and integrated way that we draw on all of systems sciences from
systems thinking and systems modeling to systems practice.

Planning is also underway for the 52" meeting to be held at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI,
13-18 July 2008. The theme of this conference will be: “Systems that make a difference” and ideas for
plenaries, paper sessions, workshops or other discussions are welcome at this time.

For further information about this year’s meeting or the meeting in 2008, please consult the ISSS website:
http://www.isss.org/conferences/tokyo2007/ or contact the ISSS office at isssoffice@ dsl.pipex.com


Celebrating 50 Years

of System Dynamics

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THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS CAREER LINK

What is it? The SD Career Link, in its eighth year of operation, is hosted by the System
Dynamics Society at the University at Albany. It includes on-line information and links to
organizations that employ candidates with system dynamics and systems thinking backgrounds.
The SD Career Link provides a valuable forum for the exchange of information about
organizations, positions and people in the field of system dynamics. Please visit the SD Career
Link bulletin board at the conference.

Career Link Allows Companies and Universities to Describe General Career
Information as Well as Specific Job Opportunities. The SD Career Link web page of the
Society web site has two subsections: (1) company/university profiles, and (2) specific job
listings. In the profiles section, company and university employers provide general yet
descriptive information about how system dynamics fits into their organization, typical jobs,
career paths, and other aspects of employment. This subsection allows employers to provide
information about system dynamics opportunities within their organizations to supplement the
more general information contained on their corporate or academic websites. Such career
information is valuable to current as well as future system dynamics students, academics, and
practitioners, and we urge companies and universities to describe the use of system dynamics
expertise in their organization even if they do not have job openings at the present time. In the
job listings section of the bulletin board, employers advertise their current openings. These are
for any level of required expertise located in any geographical region.

How to participate? Please refer to the System Dynamics Society website at
www.systemdynamics.org or send an email message to the Society office at
<system.dynamics@albany.edu>. All information about access to and use of the site will remain
confidential. We look forward to your participation.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 51

The Diagram Slam

52

A System Dynamics Conceptualization Contest

This is a contest for teams of people (1-5) to create the most interesting, funny,
innovative, or beautiful causal-loop and/or stock-flow diagram on a topic that
appeared in the news.

Qualifying Round Submissions

Diagrams must be based on material from an article in a newspaper or magazine
(any country, any language) that was printed after July 23, 2007. The diagram may
include factors not addressed in the article.

The diagram must fit completely on an 8.5 x 11 piece of paper or paper napkin.
Multiple colors may be used. The diagram can include notes, behavior-over-time
graphs, pictures, anything you choose. Please attach the article from the paper that
prompted the diagram. Do not write names of contestants on the submission.
Contestants will be given a number to identify the diagram.

An arbitrary group of judges will pick the top five diagrams for the finals.

Final Round

Five finalist teams will be invited to compete for the championship via a live
presentation after the Beer Game. Each team can have as many presenters as they
like. They will have:

¢ No more than four minutes.

e An overhead projector and projection screen.
e Five blank transparency sheets.

e A packet of multi-color pens.

e Anadoring crowd.

Schedule

e Diagrams must be submitted by Spm on Tuesday, July 31.

e Five finalists will be announced in the August 1, Wednesday morning plenary
session. They will receive their blank transparencies and pens soon after.

e The five finalists will compete for the championship on Wednesday evening,
August | immediately following the Beer Game, at around 9pm.

50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 ~ August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

System
Dynamics
Society

Conference Contacts

Conference Co-Chairs:
Emmanuel Adamides
University of Patras, Greece
Nicholas Georgantzas
Fordham University Business
Schools, New York, USA.
Local Co-host Institutions:
University of Patras

Panteion University

The Hellenic Chapter of SDS
Program Chair:

Brian C. Dangerfield
University of Salford, UK
Local Organizing Chairs:
George-Michael Klimis
Panteion University

George Papaioannou

Public Power Corporation of Greece

Local Organizing Team:
Patroklos Georgiadis
Aristoteles University of
Thessaloniki

George Papachristos
University of Patras
Nikolaos Pomonis
University of Patras
Yeoryios Stamboulis
University of Patras
Workshop Chair:

Jack B. Homer

Homer Consulting

New Jersey, USA
Conference Manager:
Roberta L. Spencer
System Dynamics Society
New York, USA
system.dynamics@albany.edu
Local Travel Agent:
Christina Shiapanis
MIBS Travel Organisation
cshiapani@mibs.gr
www.mibs.gr

cal mE
For announcements and details visit our website: http://www.systemdynamics.org

Announcing the
Twenty-sixth International
System Dynamics Conference
Athens, Greece
July 20 - 24, 2008

The venue for the 2008
conference of the System
Dynamics Society will be
the Athenaeum
Intercontinental Hotel in
Athens, Greece. Athens is
an historic, cosmopolitan
and cultured city with many
nearby attractions. Visiting
historic sites and museums,
attending cultural events,
sightseeing and shopping
are very convenient thanks to Athens’s modern transportation
infrastructure.

The Athenaeum Intercontinental Hotel is situated in Athens’s
main business district and features elegant guest rooms. It is
just a short distance from Syntagma Square, the Plaka
district, the Acropolis and other historic sites. Many
restaurants, shops and museums are very close. The hotel is a
short ride from Eleftherios Venizelos Airport.

Of most importance to the conference attendees, the
Athenaeum Intercontinental Hotel conference facilities are
excellent! This will provide a wonderful venue for all
programs and sessions. For detailed information about the
Athenaeum Intercontinental Hotel, visit

http://www. intercontinental.com

eee eee

F-

Pe =

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 53

Reading Supporting Material

Supporting Material files can be found by clicking on the appropriate link in the Paper Index, found on
the conference website. Papers are listed alphabetically by the last name of the primary author.

> Viewing/Opening/Reading the Supporting Material:

Some of these files are plain text files or presentations which are in widely accessible formats such as
.doc, .ppt, .pdf, etc., but others are model files, which need to be viewed using the appropriate system
dynamics modeling software. Below, find information on how to access freeware/demo/trial versions
from several system dynamics software manufacturers. Follow the links within the descriptions below to
the software needed to view the files.

In following chart, find the three-letter extension of the file name, then the software you need to view the
file.

File Name E i Software Needed
.itm, .stm iThink, STELLA*
-sip Powersim Studio
sim, Powersim
-vmf, .vpa, .vpm, .mdl Vensim

*ithink and STELLA can each be used to open both .itm and .stm files.

STELLA/iThink by isee systems:
http://www. iseesystems.com/player

This link will navigate you to the FREE isee Player. The isee Player lets you view, run, print and share
both STELLA and iThink models. Available in both Windows and Macintosh versions, the isee Player
allows exploration of all model layers - map, model, equation, and interface, and never "times out."

Powersim Studio by Powersim Solutions:
http://www.powersimsolutions.com/SDConference2007/sdconference.asp

Powersim Studio 7 Express is a free and fully-functional 60-day trial version of Powersim Studio 7
Enterprise edition, our SAP-certified platform for building, analyzing and sharing business simulations in
a corporate environment. Studio 7 contains an array of new and exciting features, including calendar-
independent simulations, new functions for prioritization and resource allocation, etc., improved dataset
and SAP BI connectivity, scatter graphs, updated wizards and tutorials and more. Note that a Studio 7
installation will automatically replace any previous version of Studio.

Vensim by Ventana Systems:
http://www.vensim.com/reader.html

The Vensim Model Reader can be used to open Vensim models which are files with extension .vmf, .vpm.
or .vpa. This is free software which will allow you to view and simulate models changing the assumptions
but not model structure. Many models (.vmf, .vpa, .vpm, and .mdl) can also be opened using Vensim PLE
which is free for educational use. Both PLE and the Reader are available from:
http://www.vensim.com/freedownload.html

54 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 ~ August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions

Emmanuel D. Adamides
adamides@ mech.upatras.gr
University of Patras

PO Box 5064

26004 Patras

Greece

Nikolaos Pomonis

npomo@ yahoo.gr

University of Patras

Dept of Mechanical & Aeronautical Eng
GR-26500 Patras

Greece

George Papachristos

men8gp@ hotmail.com

University of Patras

IM & IS Laboratory

Dept of Mech & Aeronautical Eng
26500 Rio Patra

Greece

Mohammad Akbarpour
mohamwad@ yahoo.com

Sharif University of Technology

10 4th Andishe Alley Andishe St 2nd Fl
Shahid Beheshti Ave

Tehran Iran

Arash Farsi

arashfarsi@ yahoo.com

Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Ave

11365 Tehran

Tran

Path dependence and transients in random and
adaptive walks on strategy fitness landscapes

Over the last decade complexity theory in general, and Kaufmann’s NK
fitness landscape model in particular, have been very popular means of
an PP hes to strategic

management. However, either i in pure conceptual, or in more formal forms,
these models assume rather naive, “memoryless” and unrestricted by past
choice strategy processes (organisational structure and decision making), i.e.
they ignore the internal dynamics of the strategy-formulation system. In this
paper, we how system d: i delling can enrich the NK
fitness landscape model so that these s are special
with respect to the way the fitness landscape is searched/w: alked. The
resulting modelling framework becomes particularly useful for understanding
strategic behaviours and assessing strategic flexibility under the assumption
of resource-based competition as it allows the explicit modelling of the

ics of assets and the ity and substitution
effects among strategic decisions and actions towards resource and capability
development for achieving higher fitness. We demonstrate our approach in
the modelling of operations strategy as an emergent process of distributed
decision making for capabilities development.

An Investigation into the Diffusion Process of a
Social Norm by a System Dynamics Approach

The way in which a behavior becomes normal in a society and how we adopt
it as a norm are interesting processes to study. Many sociologists believe that
these processes depend mainly on the bility of a behavior (

to the culture of the society), the impact of the innovator of that behavior on
the society, and the tendency of the people in the society to conform to each
other. A system dynamics approach was used in this study and a model was
developed to simulate these processes - especially for a society under the
impact of a traditional culture like Iran. The results were obtained by running
the model for different values of its parameters (corresponding to different
social situations). Comparison between these results and the reality proved
that our model simulates the situations with reasonable accuracy. This shows
that system dynamics approach can have vast applications in social sciences.
Also, the results of the simulations would be of great help to any government,
organization, etc. that intends to diffuse a norm among the people of its
country.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 55

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Bahadir Akcam
bahadirakcam@ gmail.com
University at Albany

One Marvin Avenue Apt 1-A
Troy NY 12180 USA

Deborah Lines Andersen
dla@ albany.edu

University at Albany

113 Draper Hall

135 Western Avenue

Albany NY 12222 USA

David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
315A Milne Hall

135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA

Anthony M. Cresswell

tcresswell@ ctg.albany.edu

University at Albany

Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road Suite 301

Albany NY 12205 USA

Henk A. Akkermans

ha@ uvt-nl

Tilburg University

Dept Information Systems & Management
PO Box 90153

5000 LE Tilburg The Netherlands

Willem van Oppen
wvoppen@ xs4all nl
Royal KPN Telecom
PO Box 30000

2500 GA The Hague
The Netherlands

Henk A. Akkermans

ha@ uvtaal

Tilburg University

Dept Information Systems & Management
PO Box 90153

5000 LE Tilburg The Netherlands

Secondary Data Analysis in System Dynamics
Modeling

The importance of qualitative data is appreciated in the System Dynamics
field since its early days. In his description of information content, Forrester
(1980) categorized information into three main databases; Mental, written
and numerical. Most of the information available to modeler is qualitative in
nature. Forrester (1991) discusses that despite qualitative information’s
importance, management and social scientists have long been neglected this
“far richer and more informative body of information that exist in the
knowledge and experience of those in the active, working world.” Luna-
Reyes and Andersen (2003) indicate the lack of well defined protocols to
incorporate qualitative information during the modeling process. In their
paper, they discuss the suitability of several qualitative data collection
methods in the different stages of the modeling process. In their conclusion,
they indicate the need for the development and testing formal protocols
involving qualitative social research techniques to support the modeling
process. This paper is indented to respond such need by developing and
testing a formal protocol to support the test of a generic dynamic theory by
using quali data analysis i These techniques will be used to
do secondary data analysis of previously done interviews by other
researchers.

From Mopping the Floor to Fixing the Plumbing:
How KPN Telecom Uses SD to Improve Ramp-ups
In its Service Supply Network

Paper describes an ongoing applied research project at KPN Telecom, the
leading mobile and fixed slephony operator in the Netherlands. The project
describes is aimed at ive sales & operations planning
business process at KPN that will support the ramp-up of new IP-based
service offerings through KPN’s service supply network. Paper discusses root
causes for why coordinating capacity and sales ramp-ups in the various
stages of the chain is far more difficult in service than in manufacturing.
Introduces workload as a key organising concept in collaborative supply
chain coordination during ramp- Ups. Describes project findings so far, which
are still limited to p model p through group

del-build orkshops. project results will be incorporated in
the paper as these become available.

Beyond Rounding Up the Usual Suspects: Towards
Effective Quality Management Policies for
Production Ramp-ups in Supply Chains

This study investigates the issue of managing quality during production
ramp-ups in high-tech supply chains. It combines an in-depth case study of

one particular high-tech supply chain setting with insights from the recently-
emerging literature on behavioral operations and synthesizes these two into a

56 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Monica A. Altamirano
m.a.altamirano@ student.tbm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Energy and Industry

PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

Juha Aijo
juha.aijo@ ramboll.fi
Ramboll Finland Ltd
PO Box 3

FI-02241 Espoo
Finland

Pertti Virtala

pertti.virtala@ destia.fi

Destia Consulting
Opastinsilta 12 B PO Box 152
00521 Helsinki

Finland

Lianjun An

alianjun@ us.ibm.com

IBM

TJ Watson Research Center

1101 Kitchawan Rd Rte 134
Yorktown Heights NY 10598 USA

Young M. Lee

ymlee@ us.ibm.com

IBM

TJ Watson Research Center

Route 134 PO Box 218

Yorktown Heights NY 10598 USA.

system dynamics simulation model. Model analysis suggests that isolated and
intuitively appealing quality management policies are likely to lead to
suboptimal or even detrimental results. Of crucial importance is finding the
balance between ramping up production rates sufficiently fast to capture
short-lived market demand and avoiding to increasing production starts so
high that workload levels in the supply chain move beyond the tipping point.
This means that when workloads become too high, the entire supply chain
can get bogged down in a vicious cycle of high workloads leading to low
quality levels, which lead to high rework levels and hence to even higher
workloads. Especially promising policies to be used in combination are,
firstly, moderate production ramp-up rates that turn out to generate more
timely output than overly aggressive production ramp-ups. Secondly, policies
that leverage the expertise that can be gained from analyzing defective units
that cannot be repaired easily downstream, as these may yield knowledge
regarding hidden quality issues upstream.

A Qualitative Analysis of Periodic Maintenance of
Roads

Many transportation agencies are experimenting with innovative contractual
arrangements for the procurement of construction, maintenance and operation
of roads. They are changing from traditional contracts that prescribe the kind
of work that need to be done in a specific section of the network, to more
flexible contracts, increasing the contractors freedom to its maximum level,
where the contractor itself decide which section, when and what kind of work
he will perform, with the only condition of keeping a certain level of
performance for a whole road network. Advanced computer models have
been developed that estimate what would be the resulting road condition for
given and actions. Nevertheless it remains
uncertain if contractors are given the freedom: What trade-offs would they
make? Will road quality decrease? Will road agencies be able to monitor or
control contractors? Before all these choices and freedom are transferred to
the private sector, it is urgent to develop a clear view of the most important
trade-offs that are now already made by the public authority. In order to
contribute to the building of this understanding this paper explores the issue
of road condition and some of the most the relevant and conflicting aspects of
it.

Modeling Dynamics of Workforce Absenteeism and
Effectiveness of Mitigation Actions During
Pandemics

A pandemic is likely to occur in the near future, and it could cause significant
disruptions in society creating deaths, despair, fear, and monetary cost,
among other losses. Firms would also be negatively affected by a pandemic
through loss of revenue, profit, employees, and even through a reduction in
the value of the business itself. Especially for service-intensive businesses,
employee absenteeism is a key factor that impacts firms when a pandemic
occurs, hampering various business operations. In this paper, we describe a
system dynamics model that describes dynamics of workforce absenteeism
resulting from a pandemic, and also effecti of i

actions.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 57

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
315A Milne Hall

135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA

John D. W. Morecroft
jmorecroft@ london.edu
London Business School
Regent's Park

London NW1 4SA UK

Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany

Albany NY 12222 USA

David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
315A Milne Hall

135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA

George P. Richardson

gpr@ albany.edu

University at Albany

Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 101 Rockefeller College

Albany NY 12222 USA

Fran Ackermann

fran@ mansci.strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Dept of Management Science
40 George Street

Glasgow G1 1QE UK

Colin Eden

colin@ gsb.strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Graduate School of Business
199 Cathedral Street
Glasgow G4 0QU UK

Edward G. Anderson
edward.anderson@ mecombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas

McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Station B6500

Austin TX 78712 USA

58 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

How the System Dynamics Society Came to Be: A
Collective Memoir

In this paper several of the early workers in the field of system dynamics tell
both a consensus story of how the System Dynamics Society came into being
over 25 years ago and some of the early history of the Society itself. Several
slightly different versions of this story have been told over the past several
years and we thought it would be fun to involve a broader group in this kind
of modified oral history project. The paper is based on a series of separate
recollections that have been posted in full on the web at

http:/ .org/history/oral_history.htm

Keywords: System Dynamics Society, history, founding, volunteering,
Dynamica, constitution, early conferences.

Two Group Model Building Scripts that Integrate
Systems Thinking into Strategy Workshops
Facilitated with Group Explore

Vennix (1996), And et al (1997), Ri and And (1995), and
Andersen and Richardson (1997) have called for a greater sharing of
knowledge and experience in group model building (GMB) projects to
disseminate innovative practices and to increase the effectiveness of products
being delivered to our clients. This poster responds to that call by describing
two scripts based on system dynamics group model-building practices that
have been used in strategy workshops using Group Explorer. Eden and
Ackermann (1998) have developed a workshop-based approach for the rapid
development of strategic options working directly with client teams. In its
most recent manifestation, this approach uses the Group Explorer software to
facilitate rapid mapping, modeling, and analysis of issues, goals, and
distinctive competencies into well-integrated business plans, livelihood
schemes, and statements of strategic intent (Ackermann and Eden, 2005)
Recently, Howick et al (2006) demonstrated how scenarios maps developed
in this tradition of strategic analysis and modeling could be usefully
integrated with system dynamics models to improve overall impact and value
being delivered to client groups. Andersen et al (2006) have presented a
curriculum for co-teaching Eden and Ackermann’s (1998) approach to
strategy linked to Bryson’s (2004) approach to leadership and strategy
development as well as key elements of system dynamics and systems
thinking.

Accumulations of Legitimacy: Exploring
Insurgency and Counter-Insurgency Dynamics

We explore the s of regi HAAINS TH ies by
elements of traditional insurgency studies (e.g., Beckett 2001; O’Neill 2005)

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Laura J. Black

Ijblack@ alum.mitedu

Montana State University

PO Box 3662

Bozeman MT 59772-3662 USA

Ewandro Araujo
ewandro.araujo@ cgi.com
University of Quebec at Montreal
246 Av Tuilpe

Dorval QC H9S 3P3 Canada

Luc Cassivi
cassivi.luc@ uqam.ca
University of Quebec at Montreal

in light of Bourdieu’s (1990) theory of practice. In particular, we examine the
insurgent and counterinsurgent activities as a contest for creating
of legiti through which i bent state or

and insurgent organizations that seek to become state organizations—shape
the very categories of thought that people use to recognize and interpret
“state” organizations and their activities. We use system dynamics causal-
loop and stock-flow mapping to conceptualize the accumulations of social
capital and the activities that generate and deteriorate these accumulations
according to the cause-and-effect relations asserted by political-science and
military-history studies of insurgency and counterinsurgency. We lay out an
agenda for formalizing and simulating the conceptualized structures to check
for internal consistency with the historical dynamics as well as for

i with, or of, organizati studies of I
Through this research, we offer to integrate historical insights with insights
from organization theory. We hope to contribute to understanding of points
of leverage in diffusing and addressing insurgent and counterinsurgent
activities. We also hope to inform and extend understanding of the
organizati i ucture construct of legitimacy and how it is created and
undermined by examining these critical contests for leadership and
governance.

Improving the Software Development Process: A
Dynamic Model Using the Capacity Maturity
Model
Regardless of their size, software firms search for better methods to improve

the delivery of their projects. The SEI Capability Maturity Model (CMM) is
one available framework employed to assist in improving this process. The

Dept of and T 2
315 Ste Catherine East
Montreal Quebec H2X 3X2 Canada

Martin Cloutier
cloutier.martin@ ugam.ca
University of Quebec at Montreal

of identifying the benefits associated with implementation of CMM
Level 2 practices for the smaller software development firm is the main focus
of this research. The objective is to evaluate the impact of each key process
area of CMM 2 on productivity, product quality and ability to meet deadlines.
A simulation model is designed to help in software

and management teams in SMEs, understand the impact of alternative

Dept and T
315 Ste-Catherine East
Montreal QC H2X 3X2 Canada

Elie Elia

elia.elie@ ugam.ca

University of Quebec at Montreal
Dept of Management and Technology
315 Ste Catherine East

Montreal Quebec H2X 3X2 Canada

Holger Arndt

holger@ arndt-sowi.de

Padagogische Hochschule Karlsruhe
Bismarckstrasse 10

76133 Karlsruhe

Germany

policies and practices according to CMMD. The results indicate
that the CMM’s software quality assurance process area has a sizeable impact
on productivity and that all CMM process areas impact scheduling activities.
The process areas iated with project (software project
planning and software project tracking) have very little impact on product
quality as opposed to the other process areas with impacts more substantial
on this performance measure. The analysis of scenarios indicates that the
adoption of CMM2 practices based on requirements management yields more
positive results than policies based on project management.

Using System Dynamics-based Learning
Environments to Enhance System Thinking

System dynamics is a suitable method in education for problem-oriented
learning and for improving overall system thinking skills. It is proposed that
learning envi: sisting of system d) ics models and

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 59

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Steven P. Arquitt
sarquitt@ uq.edu.au
University of Queensland
Centre for Marine Studies
St Lucia QLD 4072
Australia

Mohamed Askar
maskar@ aucegyptedu

American University in Cairo
11 Youssef El Gindi Street
Bab El Louk 12511 Cairo
Egypt

Ahmed Farghaly Marzouk
ahmed.farghaly@ gmail.com
American University in Cairo
52 Emam Abu Hanifa Street 7th District
5 Omar Elhoty Zahraa

Egypt

Maha Resk

maharesk@ gmail.com
American University in Cairo
25 Tanta Street

Agouza

Egypt

Canan Atilgan

canan@ sabanciuniv.edu

Sabanci University

Engineering and Natural Sciences
Tuzla 34956 Istanbul Turkey

Giiven Demirel

guven.demirel@ boun.edu.tr

Bogazici University

Industrial Engineering Dept SESDYN Lab
34342 Bebek Istanbul Turkey

Ali Rana Atilgan

atilgan@ sabanciuniv.edu

Sabanci University

School of Engineering & Nat Sciences
34956 Istanbul Turkey

60 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

additional didactical material have positive learning effects. This is
exemplified by the illustration and validation of a learning sequence
concerning market processes.

The dynamics of nutrient reduction trading: a
simulation-based search for effective poicy design

This paper describes a system dynamics model developed to facilitate design
of nutrient reduction trading (NRT) programs. NRT is a form of cap-and-
trade policy that has been strongly promoted in recent years to address
diffuse source nutrient pollution. Despite its wide appeal and the enthusiasm
of its proponents, very few trades have occurred to date. We propose that

i to learning d in real-world pilot studies have
contributed to lack of consensus in design and implementation of NRT. The
model we offer is intended as a demonstration of how the design process in
this instance can benefit from system dynamics modeling.

Modeling the Dynamics of the Egyptian Stock
Market

The Egyptian stock market has been experiencing a set of fluctuations over
the past two years. This was caused by several factors that include the
behavior of the Egyptian Economy, as well as the performance of the other
Middle Eastern stock markets. In this paper we use System Dynamics as a
tool for mapping the performance of the CASE 30, Egyptian Stock market
index, to identify the various interacting feedback loops that triggered such
performance. These loops are then incorporated in a system dynamics model
that is used to understand the causes of such performance as well as
developing several scenarios for managing the various factors affecting the
Egyptian stock market.

Landscape Dynamics of El Farol attendees

Paradigm of the El Farol bar for modeling bounded rationality is undertaken.
The memory horizon available to the agents and the selection criteria they
utilize for the prediction algorithm are the two essential variables for agent
strategies. The latter is enriched by including various rewarding schemes
during decision making. Playing with the essential variables, one can
maneuver the overall outcome between the comfort level and the
endogenously identified limiting state. The distribution of algorithm clusters
varies considerably for short memory. This affects the long-term aggregated
ics of A sition occurs in the distribution at
the critical memory where the correlations of the attendance deviations take
longer time to decay. A larger part of the crowd becomes more comfortable
while the rest of the bar-goers still feel congestion for long memories.
Introd direct local i ions within the by forming different

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Ahmad Taher Azar
ahmad_t_azar@ yahoo.com

Higher Technological Institute
Ahmad Orabi Square Azar Building
Menoufeyia Menouf Egypt

Khaled Wahba

khaled. wahba@ riti.org

Cairo University

Regional IT Institute

11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211 Egypt

Abdalla S.A. Mohamed
profabdo@ gmail.com
Cairo University

Bent Erik Bakken
beerikba@ online.no

Norwegian Defence Academy
Resource Management Division
FSTS

Akershus Oslo Mil Oslo 1
Norway

Yaman Barlas

ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr

Bogazigi University

Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul

Turkey

Hakan Yasarcan

yasarcanh@ yahoo.com

Australian Graduate School of Mgt
University of New South Wales
Sydney NSW 2052

Australia

types of networks, we create extremes in the attendance distributions.
Delayed feeding of the data to the agents or their inclination of to absorb
failure by insisting on unsuccessful algorithms introduces significant
correlations, hence predi ry of We addi explore the
extent of agents’ p achieved by modul. threshold in
accordance with the correlations in the data.

System Dynamics Highlights the Effect of
Maintenance on Hemodialysis Performance

there are conflicting reports regarding the relationship between dose of
dialysis or patient outcome, and machine maintenance. In this article, we will
discuss the impact of hemodialysis machine maintenance on dialysis
adequacy Kt/V and session performance by building a system dynamics
model to evaluate the effect of machine maintenance on session performance.

Developing and fine-tuning dynamic intuition.
Experimental evidence.

Considerable evidence shows that repeated trials and more elaborate analytic
training help little to mitigate problematic subject performance in dynamic
decision making. The paper uses a cognitive processing theory to account for
poor learning. Consistent with recent reviews of intuition in decision making,
the theory suggests that there are two classes of cognitive processing called
high and low roads to learning respectively. The theory calls for massive
decision training instead of analytic training for short and medium length
training programs. An experiment with 25 professionals randomly assigned
to high and low road training programs cannot disconfirm the theory.

A Comprehensive Model of Goal Dynamics in
Organizations: Setting, Evaluation and Revision

Goals play significant role in decision making. Most organizations can be
assumed to set and then pursue certain goals either stated explicitly or
assumed implicitly. In realistic models, the goal is not a constant but a
variable: it can erode due to persistent failure or it can evolve further as a
result of confidence caused by success With respect to many different types
of goal dynamics, there exist some models of limited and linear goal erosion
dynamics in the literature. We extend the existing models to obtain a

ive model of goal d , by i i capacity
limits on performance improvement rate, performance decay when there is no
effort, time ints and ion and frustration effects. The

Pp s

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 61

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Yaman Barlas

ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr

Bogazigi University

Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul

Turkey

Yaman Barlas

ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr

Bogazigi University

Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul

Turkey

Birnur Ozbas

birnur@ ozbas.net

Bogazici University

Industrial Engineering Department
Bebek 34342 Istanbul

Turkey

Onur Ozgiin

onur.ozgun@ boun.edu.tr

Bogazici University

Industrial Engineering Department
Bebek 34342 Istanbul

Turkey

62 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

model constitutes a general theory of goal dynamics in organizations. Our
model also s some to avoid the i goal and
performance erosion in various unfavorable, risky goal seeking
environments.

Structure and Behavior Testing Software
Demonstration: SiS and BTS II*

System dynamics validity consists of two very different types: structural and
behavioral. A unique property of system dynamics method is that structure
validity must precede behavior validity; the latter has no value without the
former. We thus present structural tests and behavior pattern tests in this
order and separately. Structure tests are further classified into direct and
indirect structure tests. We place special emphasis on indirect structure tests.
These are strong (special) behavior tests that can provide information on
potential structural flaws. Since they combine the strength of structural
orientation with the advantage of being quantifiable, indirect structure tests
seem to be the most promising direction for research on model validation.
We demonstrate two different validity testing software designed at Bogazici
University to assist with indirect structure testing (SiS) and behavior pattern
testing (BTS II). SiS software does automatic dynamic pattern recognition,
indirect structure testing and pattern=oriented model calibration. Our
behavior pattern testing (BTS II) software is also pattern-oriented. It
estimates and compares the major dynamic pattern components that exist in
the simulated and actual dynamic behaviors. *Supported by Bogazici
University Rereacrh Fund no. 06HA305.

Modeling of Real Estate Price Oscillations in
Istanbul

The purpose of this study is to develop an understanding of the dynamics of
the real estate market in Istanbul. As a result of the unavoidable delays in
perception of the real estate condition and construction of new buildings, the
market variables are strongly oscillatory. A system dynamics model is
constructed to understand the reasons of oscillations in real estate prices in
Istanbul from the perspective of a construction company. The model includes
the factors effecting the speed and size of the construction side (supply) and
sales (demand). The model focuses on the balance/imbalance between
housing supply and demand as a result of fundamental material and
information delays, rather than costs and interest rates. Different scenarios
are tested to improve the current oscillatory behavior. This model can serve
as a simulation basis for predicting the reaction of the market to changes in
the decisions of internal players and external inputs.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Andrea Marcello Bassi

4141@ stud.liuc.it
Millennium Institute

2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650

Arlington VA 22201
USA

Steffen Bayer
s.bayer@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Tanaka Business School
South Kensington Campus
London SW7 2AZ UK

Martina K6berle-Gaiser

martina koberle-gaiser@ imperial.ac.uk

Imperial College London
Innovation Studies Centre
Tanaka Business School
London SW7 2AZ UK

James Barlow
j.barlow@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Business School

South Kensington Campus
London SW7 2AZ UK

Allyson Beall

abeall@ mail. wsu.edu
Washington State University
PO Box 921

Pullman WA 99163

USA

Andrew Ford

forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
Environmental Science

PO Box 644430

Pullman WA 99164-4430
USA

Threshold 21 (T21) USA: Behavior Description

This paper provides an overview of the projecti i by the base
case of the Threshold 21 (T21) model customized to the United States of
America. The present study highlights the main results of the simulation of
the model for the three spheres, society, economy and environment and
shows more in detail the behavior of the energy sector.

Planning for Adaptability in Healthcare
Infrastructure

As part of an i system, health should be planned
and evaluated in conjunction with the services it supports. However, this is
challenging because of uncertainty about future requirements due to
technological, demographic, medical and policy change. Long lasting
infrastructure needs to support healthcare processes that change rapidly. In
the UK public private partnership models provide additional challenges for
the National Heath Service. Contractual agreements between public sector
providers of care services and the organi ible for the provision
and maii of the built infi typically last 30 years or more.
Over this period both the demands for care services and the technologies used
to deliver them are likely to change considerably. Infrastructure needs to be
able to adapt to these changes, and planning tools need to recognise the
interdependencies within the care service and care infrastructure system.
System dynamics modelling offers the potential to plan for these challenges.
It can help to guide the planning process of new healthcare infrastructure
under conditions of uncertainty, so that the services it enables can meet
present and future needs. The stylised model presented considers care service
delivery over time depending on infrastructure flexibility options (e.g. to
increase capacity) under different scenarios.

Participatory Modeling for Adaptive Management:
Reports from the Field II

As the natural world has become dominated by human influences the need
for the public involvement in natural resource management decisions has
become vital. In addition, scientists are now viewing nature as a dynamic
rather than “in balance”. To accommodate these paradigms, natural resource
managers have been encouraged to look holistically at the problems they
manage through the lens of adaptive management. Current adaptive

theory i p variability, , the relationship of
impacts with respect to potential temporal and spatial disconnects, and social
concerns. Add the obvious need for modeling and the stage is set for
participatory system dynamics modeling. Participatory SD modeling is a
process that can integrate science and local knowledge with policy, and open
the lines of communication between potentially different world views. We
will use case studies to highlight three characteristics of participatory

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 63

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Todd BenDor

bendor@ uiuc.edu

University of North Carolina
New East Building

Campus Box # 31

40
Chapel Hill NC 27599-3140 USA

Michael Bergbauer
michael bergbauer@ chello.at
Mobilkom Austria

Obere Donaustrasse 2

1020 Wien

Austria

Carmine Bianchi
bianchi@ unipa it

University of Palermo

Via Mazzini 59 (c/o CED4)
90139 Palermo

Italy

64 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

environmental modeling to illustrate the flexibility of process and the
effectiveness of a broad range of interventions. 1) Interventions may take
place anywhere on the “problem identification to solution producing”

2 L in the actual building of the model
varies; the “hands on” continuum. 3) The type of data required varies on the
“qualitative to quantitative” continuum.

Modeling the Wetland Mitigation Process: A New
Dynamic Vision of No Net Loss Policy

Over the last two hundred years, the United States has experienced dramatic
losses in wetland coverage and quality. In 1987, the National Wetlands
Policy Forum recommended that U.S. wetlands policy should achieve overall
“no net loss” of the country’s remaining wetland acreage and function. Since
then, regulations requiring compensatory mitigation for wetland losses, often
through wetland creation or restoration, have become an essential component
of federal wetland protection efforts. Recent reports have concluded that no
net loss policy has been successful, citing the virtual elimination of wetland
losses experienced in certain areas. However, these reports have not assessed
the temporal nature of wetland loss and restoration. Delays in initiating and
completing restoration activities mean that frequent temporary wetland losses
can contribute to a consistent net loss over time. This paper analyzes wetland
loss and compensation as dynamic processes that include temporal lags
endemic to various mitigation Here, a system ics model of
the mitigation process is used to explore wetland alteration and mitigation
data collected between 1993 and 2004 for the Chicago, IL region. By
analyzing wetland change dynamically, it becomes possible to adjust wetland
mitigation methods to more effectively eliminate temporal net loss of
wetlands.

Evolving System Dynamics Models, Model
Identification by Means of Evolutionary Computing

The formulation of a System Dynamics Simulation Model is a bottom up
process which is based on a deep understanding of the causal structure of the
underlying system. In this paper an initial study of a different approach to
modelling is presented. Starting with the output of an unknown model
structure, candidate System Dynamics Models are generated automatically by
means of an evolutionary computation algorithm. This top down approach
could be useful for the selection of model boundaries as well as for the
validation of models in general.

Opportunities and pitfalls in Public policies for
SME districts: A dynamic resource-based-view

Industrial districts (IDs) are considered as a powerful source of wealth for
different categories of ‘actors’ operating in the areas hosting them. Although
business clustering has since always been a spontaneous — rather than
planned — phenomenon, in order to promote local economies, in the last 15
years public institutions have been inclined to establish formal policies to

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Asmeret Bier

asmeret@ wsu.edu
Washington State University
460 NE Maiden Lane #5
Pullman WA 99163

USA

Andrew Ford

forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
Environmental Science

PO Box 644430

Pullman WA 99164-4430 USA

Enzo Bivona
enzobivona@ sciepol.unipa it
University of Palermo
Via Mazzini 59

90139 Palermo

Italy

Francesco Ceresia
feeresia@ libero.it
University of Palermo

foster the start-up or development of IDs. What is it possible to learn from
Italian successful cases of business clustering? What are the main factors
positively affecting and tackling small business networking? What are those
affecting the crisis of a cluster? What are the opportunities and pitfalls that
clustering implies for small business management? What are different
categories of actors who may play an active role in promoting and managing
a business cluster? In particular, what role can public agencies and
governance bodies (e.g. District Committees) play in ID governance? A
Dynamic Resource-Based-View is suggested in this paper, to foster learning
and build consensus among different actors in a district. This approach is
claimed to: (a) identify synergies between alternative policies; (b) affect
sustainable ID growth; (c) detect weak signals of crisis; (d) assess ID
performance and affect it.

A Classroom Simulation of a Tradable Green
Certificate Market and Implications for Model
Development

Tradable green certificate (TGC) markets are economically driven policy
instruments that can be used to increase investment in renewable electricity
generating capacity. This type of policy increases revenue for renewable
electricity generation units, making the units more cost effective in
comparison to conventional electricity generation. An educational classroom
game was created to simulate a TGC market, and was played twice with
university students. Outcomes of the game varied substantially between the
simulations. Strategies for playing the game were discussed with participants,
and students were encouraged to analyze how these strategies affected the
outcomes of the game. Players’ strategies were also used to extend each
simulation past the number of simulation periods actually played, and to
suggest ways to improve decision rules in system dynamics models of TGC
markets.

Exploring the Underground Economy through
System Dynamics to support Public Decision
Makers: a preliminary qualitative analysis

To estimate and analyse the underground economy phenomenon, different
methods and approaches have been provided in literature. However, such
approaches are very often based on static and linear equilibrium models and
seldom adopt simulation tools. This paper results from a research project

Via Croce Rossa 33 conducted in the Sicily Region (Italy) aimed at investigating — through the
90144 Palermo System Dynamics methodol main causes-and-effects i i
Taly underlying the phenomenon of the “hidden workers” at both firm and self-
Giovan Battista level. By bining micro and lysis, the authors

giannimonte@ hotmail.com
University of Palermo
Via del Segugio 8
90125 Palermo

Italy

present a preliminary causal loop diagram of the investigated phenomenon.
Such feedback structure has been built through the support of managers and
representatives of private and public organisations.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 65

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Enzo Bivona
enzobivona@ sciepol.unipa.it
University of Palermo
Via Mazzini 59

90139 Palermo

Italy

Robert J. Bloomfield
1jb9@ cornell.edu

Cornell University

Ithaca NY 14853

USA

Francesca Gino

fgino@ andrew.cmu.edu
Carnegie Mellon University
Tepper School of Business
5000 Forbes Avenue
Pittsburgh PA 15213

USA

Susan L. Kulp

skulp@ hbs.edu

Harvard Business School
Soldiers Field Road
Boston MA 02163

USA

66 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Exploring Intellectual Capital Investments Policies
in a Call Center through A ‘System Dynamics’
Resource Based View

This paper examines alternative Intellectual Capital (IC) investment policies
in a dynamically complex system for explaining differences in firm
performance. Such analysis is supported through the use of a System
Dynamics (SD) simulation model. This paper is based on the hypothesis that
to explain superior performance is not sufficient to look at the endowment of
strategic resources, but it also requires an analysis of the dynamics of
resources accumulation and depletion processes resulting from management
policies. To assess IC impact on company performance, a conceptual
framework and a SD simulation model have been built. Finally, alternative
scenarios results are commented.

Behavioral Causes of the Bullwhip Effect in a Single
Echelon

Two laboratory experiments on a single-echelon inventory task show that
inventory durability interacts with transit lags to create order volatility that
exceeds demand volatility (the bullwhip effect). Durability creates bullwhip
effects because players adjust orders insufficiently to reflect current
inventory and backlogs, much as they adjust orders insufficiently to reflect
holding and backlog costs in S dor studies (e.g., it and
Cachon 2000). Transit lags exacerbate bullwhip-like effects by interfering
with players’ ability to correct prior errors. Our results suggest that bullwhip
effects can be driven by characteristics of inventory and supply chains, even
in the absence of the inter-echelon coordination problems studied by Sterman
(1989a, 1989b) and Croson, Donohue, Katok and Sterman (2005).

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Mathias Bosshardt
mathias.bosshardt@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Institut
OVGA 115

CH-5232 Villigen
Switzerland

Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
silvia.ulli-beer@ psi.ch

PSI

Roggenweg 7

4900 Langenthal
Switzerland

Fritz Gassmann
fritz.gassmann@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Institute
CH-5232 Villigen
Switzerland

Alexander Wokaun
alexander.wokaun@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Insitut
CH-5232 Villigen
Switzerland

Malcolm Brady
malcolm.brady@ dcu.ie
Dublin City University
Glasnevin

Dublin 9

Ireland

Bill Braun
bbraun@ hithsys.com
Cleveland Clinic
3833 Kirkwood Road

Cleveland Heights OH 44121-1803
USA

Developing a diffusion model of competing
alternative drive-train technologies (cadt-model)

Strategic measures for global ecology and security of energy supply
particularly affect road traffic, as a main originator of greenhouse gas
emissions by use of fossil energy. The introduction of several alternative,
eco-friendly drive-train technologies in the automotitve fleet leads to a
cempetition with the existing petrol and diesel engines as well as with each
other. A system dynamics model is developed to understand the fundamental
competing forces driving the market p ration of the new 1 and
to derive policy implications and strategies potentially contributing to their

A model is f d to examine different
diffusion patterns between competing technologies. First results show, that
reaching a critical market share in time is a decisive factor. This is
demonstrated for the case of Switzerland, that represents a demand driven
market without an autonomous automotive industry.

Al

ertising effectiveness and spillover: simulating
strategic interaction using advertising

This paper examines the strategic interaction between two firms competing
using advertising. The simulation is based on the Cournot analytical duopoly
model. The paper discusses the analytical model and then discusses the
simulation model. The paper discusses the ways in which the simulation
model is different, usually for pragmatic reasons, to the analytical model. The
paper shows results of the model for a number of competitive scenarios.
These scenarios demonstrate that small changes in model parameters lead to
large differences in firm and industry behavior. The paper demonstrates that
positive spillover (cooperation) reduces the impact of advertising and
negative spillover (predation) increases the impact of advertising.

The Dynamics of the Eroding Goals Archetype

Various attempts have been made to construct dynamic simulation models of
the system archetypes. This paper examines the eroding goals archetype and
hypothesizes that achieving classical archetypal behavior over time requires
the inclusion of structures that are technically outside the common

descri finition of the archetype. Four di of managerial
decision-making sensitivity are introduced into the model in order to achieve
the expected dynamic behaviors described in the literature.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 67

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Fernando Buendia
fernando buendia@ udlap.mx
University of the Americas Puebla
Santa Catarina Martir

Cholula Puebla

Mexico

Newton Paulo Bueno

npbueno@ ufv.br

Federal University of Vigosa

Dept de Economia Campus Universitario
36571-000 Vicosa Minas Gerais

Brazil

James R. Burns

jburns@ ba.ttu.edu

Texas Tech University

Rawls College of Business Admin
15th and Flint

Lubbock TX 79409-2101 USA

Balaji Janamanchi

bjanamanchi@ tamiu.edu

Texas A&M International University
PH 304C College of Business (DIBTS)
5201 University Boulevard

Laredo TX 78041-1900 USA

68 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Self-organizing Markets

This paper develops a model to understand self-organizing markets. This
kind of markets is characterized by a highly skewed distribution of firms’
size, so a way to explain them is by introducing increasing returns to the
growth of the firm. In this paper, besides, I show how urn theory can be used
to formalize the model suggested in this paper.

A macroeconomic systemic model for the Brazilian
economy

The purpose of this paper is to show that a simple systemic model is able to
“{mitate” the behavior of a complex economy as the Brazilian one.The main
identified features of the Brazilian economy are:1) the short term growth rate
is influenced in an important way by the effective demand; in the medium
term, however, the growth is restricted by real factors such as the capital
stock and the capacity to import ; 2) attempts of growing above the rate
allowed by those restrictions accelerate the inflation rate or provoke
unbalance in the balance of payments; 3) in both cases, the government is
forced, earlier or later, to adopt restrictive monetary policies to reduce the
final demand growth rate, reducing the domestic absorption of resources; 4)
an important leverage point to reach a sustainable growth path is to create
conditions for a consistent increase of the exports. 5) the growth of exports in
the medium term, however, requires significant investments in
competitiveness acquisition, without which the country will be limited to sell
products in international markets already saturated such as the one of
commodities and, therefore, with limited growth potential.

Dynamics of a Democracy Deeply in Debt:
Simulation Studies of Federal Revenue and the
Capacity of the U.S. to Service its Debt

The issue of the growing federal debt and whether it will be serviceable in the
years to come is addressed. Can the U.S. federal government continue to
expect its tax revenues to rise to the occasion? Will the retirement of seventy-
seven million baby boomers result in diminished federal revenue after the
year 2010? Will the changing tax structure reduce federal revenues? Will
these circumstances lead in-turn to an incapacity of our federal government
to service its burgeoning national debt, now nine trillion dollars? Are there
probable disaster scenarios that policymakers must navigate using judicious
policy choices? Is it time to start drastically cutting the federal budget? These
are the ions that get d by the si ion models we will present.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

John E. Butler
jebutler@ hawaii.edu
University of Hawaii
Shidler College of Business
2404 Maile Way D311B
Honolulu HI 96822

USA

Wai-ming Mak

mswmmak@ polyu.edu.hk

Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Dept of Management and Marketing
Hung Hom Kowloon 00001

Hong Kong

China

Ricardo Matos Chaim
rmchaim1@ yahoo.com.br
Dataprev

SHIIGS 713 Bloco RI Casa 63
70380-729 Brasilia DF

Brasil

Myong-Hun Chang
m.chang@ csuohio.edu
Cleveland State University
Department of Economics
Cleveland OH 44140

USA

Organizational Growth and Population Dynamics:
Strategies for Success

Abstract This paper examines the impact of population decline on an
organization serving youth, to determine its impact on membership over a
sixty year period. A double population chain model is used to identify
population dynamics at the city and organization level. The model shows that
membership would be greatly affected and that the response could either be
downsizing or restructuring of activities. A multi-attribute model is then used
to identify the preferences in all age groups of scouting to identify the criteria
that they value in a after school activity and which activities compete with
scouting.

Dynamic Stochasticity in the control of liquidity in
Asset and Liability Management (ALM) for pension
funds

System dynamics may enhance Asset and Liability Management (ALM)
capability to be risk oriented. Many integrated ALM problem for pension
funds has been modeled to address, among others, liquidity control. The
purpose is to provide long-term liquidity control prognoses for investment
decisions as a way to forecast long-term scenarios and to develop an
integrated policy for assets and liabilities.

Non-Equilibrium Industry Dynamics with
Knowledge-Based Competition: An Agent-Based
Computational Model

An t-based model is ped to explore the
evolutionary dynamics of an industry which is subject to knowledge-based
competition with entry and exit. It views the production process as a system
of inter-dependent activities and the firm as an adaptive entity whose survival
depends on its ability to perform various activities with greater efficiency
than its rivals. The model is capable of generating many empirical
regularities, including those on firm turnovers, evolving market structure, and
the int dust ical diversity. C i analyses are
performed to investigate how these regularities ; are affected by various
industry-specific factors such as the attributes of the market environment,
search propensities and the nature of the technology space in which
individual firm's learning takes place.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 69

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Karim J. Chichakly
kchichakly@ iseesys.com

isee systems inc

31 Old Etna Rd Suite SN
Lebanon NH 03766

USA

Karim J. Chichakly
kchichakly@ iseesys.com

isee systems inc

31 Old Etna Rd Suite SN
Lebanon NH 03766

USA

Catherine Chiong Meza
c.m.chiongmeza@ tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5

2628 BX Delft

The Netherlands

G.P.J. Dijkema

g-pj.dijkema@ tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Technology Policy and Mgt
PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

70 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

SMILE and XMILE: A Common Language and
Interchange Format for System Dynamics

Proposed four years ago, SMILE has made minimal progress toward a full-
fledged specification that System Dynamics software vendors can use to
interchange models. This paper attempts to move the development of the
standard one step further with a draft specification of both the language that
needs to be interchanged (SMILE) and an XML format for that language
(XMILE). Central to the success of this standard is the idea of three
increasing levels of compliance, only the lowest level (interchange of
equations) being required of all vendors.

Modeling Agile Development: When is it Effective?

It is very difficult to deliver high-quality software (i.e., with very few bugs)
in a reasonable time period. Indeed, it is not unusual on medium to large
projects to spend as much time fixing bugs as delivering new features. One of
the most challenging issues in software development is keeping pace with
changing customer requirements. Agile development was born from the idea
that software development needs to be quick on its feet, responding to
changing customer i without ip ising delivery or
quality. It was founded on the principle of embracing change rather than
fighting it. Some of the fundamental principles of Agile development include
frequent customer interaction, frequent releases, writing tests before code,
nightly builds with automated testing, and not implementing more than you
know the customer needs. Yet there is a surging debate about whether Agile
works and when it works. This paper i i when Agile devel

methods may work and the relative advantages of different parts of the
methodology.

Scenario Analysis using System Dynamics
Modelling: The case of Production Portfolio Change
in the Dutch Paper and Board Industry

A scenario analysis on plausible futures served to explore the Dutch Paper
and Board — P&B ~ Industry’s resilience towards competition in the form of
an aggressive investment from outside the current industry. A System
Dynamics model helped to visualize the effects on the Dutch industry’s
production portfolio. A scenario-space was constructed by combining three
mega trends — Demand-shift for P&B products, Social awareness of recycling
and Dutch business environment — and five alternative set-ups of a new
facility by the prospective competitor. The model output reveals the
dominance of the Demand-shift for P&B products, reinforced by the Social

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Cornelia van Daalen
c.vandaalen@ thm.tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Tech Policy and Mgt
PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

Francesco Chirico
francesco.chirico@ lu.unisi.ch
University of Lugano

Via G Buffi 13

6900 Lugano

Switzerland

Gianluca Colombo
gianluca.colombo@ lu.unisi.ch
University of Lugano

Via Giuseppe Buffi 13
CH-6904 Lugano
Switzerland

Daniel Chomiakow
daniel.chomiakow@ gmx.net
University of Mannheim
Darmstaedter Strasse 44
64367 Muehltal

Germany

awareness of recycling, for a good performance of the Dutch P&B Industry,
regardless of the new facility type. The Dutch business environment offers
limited scope to counterbalance the decreasing sales of P&B products.
Interestingly, this industry retains growing sales and profits patterns even in
the worst-case scenario. The case study confirmed that the combination of
scenario analysis and System Dynamics could support the analysis and
visualization of the effects of major, competitive investments on a mature
industry.

The effect of Family Inertia on the Value Creation
Process in Family Firms: New Insights from a
Simulation Study

The present research can be viewed as a contribution to the literature on the
simulation of first-order models of theory testing and on the simulation of
second-order models of theory building. It sets out through computer
simulations the positive dynamic interconnections studied by
Koiranen&Chirico(2006) between knowledge, capabilities, dynamic
capabilities, entrepreneurial performance and trans-generational value in
family business. Interesting results and new insights emerge introducing
family inertia in the model(as a function of paternalism) which influences the
creation of capabilities and dynamic capabilities negatively, with some
exceptions. We conclude that although a paternalistic behaviour can be
positive in guiding and training offspring at the beginning of the activity, it
may become less crucial if it persists over time preventing change even when
it is needed. Family firms should be able to understand the long-term effects
and results of actual events, decisions and behaviours, and, at the same time,
prevent their negative consequences.

A Generic Pattern for Modeling Manufacturing
Companies

The insights presented in this paper were gained during the early phase of an
ongoing master’s thesis, analyzing the supply chain of one particular branch
of manufacturing industry. Prior to the investigation of the supply chain as a
whole, several models needed to be assembled to facilitate the analyses of the
separate stages. Each stage usually consists of numerous companies which

can - due to their - be and as one single
company. For this purpose, a generic approach was designed to assist in
ive models of ies from the in;

industry. This approach i is introduced in the paper by identifying all sectors
that compose the business of a manufacturing company and by pointing out
the interdependencies among those sectors. Subsequently, a model case
demonstrates one potential way of transforming the generic pattern of
causalities into a simulation model, including an exemplary set of model
equations. Eventually, an analysis of one simulation run and its implications
is d d, and ideas for ad of the approach are discussed.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 71

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Nazli Choucri
nchoucri@ mit.edu

MIT

E53-493

Cambridge MA 01239
USA

Daniel Goldsmith
goldsmith@ mitedu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
50 Memorial Drive E53-323
Cambridge MA 02139 USA

Stuart Madnick
smadnick@ mit.edu
MIT

30 Wadsworth Street Room E53-321

Cambridge MA 02142
USA

J. Bradley Morrison
bmorriso@ brandeis.edu
Brandeis University

19 Fox Run Road
Bedford MA 01730
USA

Michael Siegel
msiegel@ mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School E53-323
Cambridge MA 02142
USA

Thomas D. Clark
tom54clark@ comcast.net
Strategy Associates LLC
10382 West Remington Drive
Littleton CO 80127

USA.

Mary C. Jones
jonesm@ untedu
University of North Texas
Box 305249

Denton TX 76203

USA

72 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Using System Dynamics to Model and Better
Understand State Stability

The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of
countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are
important common p We have ped a system dy ics model
of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and
debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent the nature and dynamics
of the 'loads' generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and the core
features of state resilience and its 'capacity' to withstand these 'loads,' on the
other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the
resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate propensities for
‘tipping points,’ that is, the conditions under which small additional changes
in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these insights,
we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the
likelihood of 'tipping' and enhance prospects for stability.

Achieving Competitive Advantage in a High
Turnover, Dynamic Market: A Causal Model
Approach

This paper uses a dynamic systems perspective to establish a causal model of
how organizations can achieve and maintain competitive advantage in highly
competitive situations where unique resources do not exist. The study is
grounded in the resource based theory of the firm, and the model is
developed from research surrounding this theory and from an extensive
fifteen month in-depth examination of an organization in this type of market.
Results suggest that keys to achieving a competitive advantage in this
situation arise from the ability to establish a strong competitive culture,
detailed execution of organizational processes, rapid assimilation of high
caliber talent into the organization, and establishment of a constant sense of
urgency in preparation and execution of plans. This is expressed as an
integrated theory of competitive behavior in a causal model that illustrates
the complex feedback nature of organizations in highly competitive, high
turnover situations.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

John Cody

john.cody@ vuw.ac.nz

Victoria University of Wellington
PO Box 50-302

Porirua 5240

New Zealand

Robert Y. Cavana
bob.cavana@ vuw.ac.nz

Victoria University of Wellington
PO Box 600

Wellington

New Zealand

David Pearson
david.pearson@ vuw.ac.nz
Victoria University of Wellington

School of Social and Cultural Studies

PO Box 600
Wellington
New Zealand

Gianluca Colombo
gianluca.colombo@ lu.unisi.ch
University of Lugano

Via Giuseppe Buffi 13
CH-6904 Lugano
Switzerland

Francesco Chirico
francesco.chirico@ lu.unisi.ch
University of Lugano

Via G Buffi 13

6900 Lugano

Switzerland

Carlo Comaschi
carlo.comaschi@ gmail.com

Eni Corporate University

Via Salvo |

20097 San Donato Milanese MI
Italy

Vincenzo Di Giulio

enzo.digiulio@ enicorporateuniversity.eni.it

Eni Corporate University

Via S Salvo |

20097 San Donato Milanese MI
Italy

Social structure and health: preliminary work on a
system dynamics ‘concept model’

Health 'disparity' is a current public policy issue. This creates possibilities for
public ion of ics that stratify population health status. A short
review of current discussion in public health and sociology is used to create a
conceptual framework for factors that influence disparities, namely
dominance, disorder and isolation. The framework provides the basis for a
system dynamics ‘concept model’. Work in progress on the model is outlined.
The model is to be used when discussing ways in which local civic action can
reduce health disparities.

Understanding Family Businesses as Value
Creating Systems through System Dynamics

In this article family businesses are viewed as value generator systems, where
the value is created across generations, accumulated inside the firms and/or
distributed to the families’ members in accordance to the ownership structure
(degree of fi ). The value is through the innovations
implemented and it is eroded due to the innovation obsolescence. This
process is affected by two variables: the psychological ownership shown by
the shareholders and the dynamic iliti d by the knowledge-
related human capital and by the social capital. The aim of the present
research is to explore, extend and test the dynamics of the FITS model
through computer simulations in system dynamics and provide new insights
about the family business evolution across generations (90 year simulation -
3 genrations - are provided). Family governance and family ownership play a
crucial role for the creation of value in family business. The two variables
will be analysed and simulated in order to capture their effect on our model
as a whole.

Natural gas demand and supply in Italy

The article explores the dynamics between natural gas demand and supply in
Italy. The strong increase in natural gas demand since the beginning of the
70s represents a deep transformation of Italy’s energy system which gives
rise to security problems. In order to supply Italy with increasing volumes of
natural gas, some new pipelines and regasification plants are expected in the
next future, but their implementation is uncertain. Thus, there is possibility of
natural gas shortage in the future. On the other hand, if all the expected
projects will be i situations of pply cannot be excluded. In
order to study such a problem, a system dynamics model has been built. The

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 73

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Eleonora Sormani
eleonora.sormani@ gmail.com

Eni Corporate University

Via Salvo 1

20097 San Donato Milanese MI
Italy

David L. Cooke
dlcooke@ ucalgary.ca
University of Calgary

1008 Beverley Blvd SW
Calgary AB T2V 2C5 Canada

Huiming Yang

huimyang@ cancerboard.ab.ca

Alberta Cancer Board

Div of Population Health & Information
2202 2nd Street Holy Cross Site
Calgary AB T2S 3C1 Canada

Gil Curry

gil.curry@ calgaryhealthregion.ca
Foothills Medical Centre

1403 29th St NW

Calgary AB T2N 2T9 Canada

Paul Rogers

rogers@ enme.ucalgary.ca
University of Calgary

Shulich School of Engineering
2500 University Drive NW
Calgary AB T2N 1N4 Canada

Thomas R. Rohleder
tom.rohleder@ haskayne.ucalgary.ca
University of Calgary

Haskayne School of Business
2500 University Drive NW
Calgary AB T2N 1N4 Canada

Eva-Maria Cronrath
eva.cronrath@ gmail.com
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss
68131 Mannheim

Germany

Alexander Zock

alexander.zock@ ecad-aviation.de
European Ctr for Aviation Development
Lise-Meitner-Strasse 10

62493 Darmstadt

Germany

74 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

model core consists of a stock representing the transport network, with the
total natural gas supply acting as inflows, and the total natural gas demand as
an outflow. A key role in the model is played by the gas storage system and
its capacity to inject or extract natural gas from the network, in order to
match supply and demand. The model allows to explore future scenarios,
make sensitivity analysis and verify under which conditions a balance
between demand and supply exists.

Introducing System Dynamics Modeling to Health
Care in Alberta

Alberta, Canada is going through a period of unprecedented demand for
health services, driven by the Province’s growth. Problems arising from
population growth have led to a gradual realization among health region
planners that better tools are needed to help make policy decisions. We
discuss our progress to date in introducing systems thinking and system

ing as tools for ig alternative health policy decisions.
To date, we have held a workshop to introduce Calgary Health Region
opinion leaders to what system dynamics can and cannot do, and have begun
model development work in two areas. The first is in emergency care
services and the second is in colorectal cancer screening. In this paper we
describe the problems being tackled and the preliminary (qualitative) models
that have been developed.

Robert C. Lee

robert.lee@ calgaryhealthregion.ca

Calgary Health Region

Foothills Medical Ctre S Tower Rm 602
1403 29th St NW

Calgary AB T2N 2T9 Canada

David Strong

Calgary Health Region

10101 Southport Road SW
Calgary AB T2W 3N2 Canada

Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovations by
Analogies: Examples of the Mobile
Telecommunication Market

For successful business planning it is essential for a company to quantify its
i volumes. In this article we present first results on

on of products in the telecommunication market. The
method used is applicable to established products with sales histories as well
as to new products prior to their launch. Building on a System Dynamics
formulation of the Bass model, Thomas’s framework for forecasting by
analogies, i.e. existing products with a high degree of similarity to an

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Margarita Maria
Cruz Barrientos
macusita.82@ gmail.com
University of Bergen

Calle 18 Sur #35-160 Apto 301
Edificio Venecia

574 Medellin Colombia

Christian Luiz Da Silva
christians@ fae.edu

UniFAE

Rua Pedro Wobeto 14 Boqueirao
CEP 81670310 Curitiba Parana
Brazil

innovation, is extended. We illustrate the applicability of the forecasting
method by simulating future sales of mobile communication devices and
inflight mobile phone usage.

Evaluating System Dynamics as a Tool for Teaching
History

History has been taught as a p ion of isolated facts which
fill students’ minds with a great volume of dates, actors and events. However,
students are seldom encouraged to relate what they learn with changes over
time. Thus, they present a lack of understanding of what history has to do
with them. Therefore, there is a strong need of placing the understanding of
this subject into a structured pattern that leads students to the understanding
not only of the past, but also of the present and the future. In this paper, SD is
evaluated as a tool to enhance students’ understanding of history.
Experiments with high school students were run, in which SD and the
conventional method of teaching history were tested with groups of students
with either no previous experimental experience with the teaching method or
without previous experimental experiences on them. The results present the
SD teaching method as a better tool to teach history with students who used
SD before. however, the conventional method reveals to be persistent in
student’s minds when they do not posses any previous experience with SD.
Important are for future repli of the experiment.

Analysis Model for State Intervention in the Local

Socioec ic Develop t

The state role in economy has been a controversial subject matter in the last
decades. Insufficient public resources and increased demand require the State
to be more judicious and efficient. In such context, this article aims at
assessing economic impact of the socioeconomic development urban
equipment. Taking into consideration the state intervention in economy, we
developed a dynamic model involving public resource management,
population growth, income increase and individual well-being. Based on the
premise that urban equipment provides some kind of services for a certain
parcel of population, the higher is the State investing capacity, the lower is
the deficit concerning the population not provided with such services.
Services are provided at a given cost that determines the individual well-
being increment when compared to the service value. The aforementioned
model allowed us to carry out the analysis of service cost variation versus
family average income in a community of 20 thousand people for a 20-year
period. The analysis i taxation and as being the main
current public variables. We observed that the State participation, through
new urban equipment, has a positive impact when it is considered an element
of local development process.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 75

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Brice A. Dattée
b.dattee@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Tanaka Business School
Innovation Studies Centre
London SW7 2AZ

UK

David FitzPatrick
david fitzpatrick@ ucd.ie
University College Dublin

Henry Birdseye Weil

weilco@ compuserve.com

MIT

Sloan School of Management

50 Memorial Drive Room E52-541
Cambridge MA 02142-1347

USA

Michael A. Deegan
md7875@albany.edu
University at Albany

56F Weis Road

Albany NY 12208

USA

Sebastian Derwisch
s.derwisch@ cgiar.org
Worldagroforestry Centre (ICRAF)
United Nations Avenue Gigiri

Po Box 30677-00100

Nairobi

Kenya

Birgit Kopainsky

birgit kopainsky@ flury-giuliani.ch
University of Bergen
Fosswinckelsgate 6

5007 Bergen

Norway

76 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

The Dynamics of Technological Substitutions

Technological substitution is the process by which disruptive technologies
replace the dominant ones in an industry. Such paradigmatic shifts have a
great effect on the strategic planning. The formulations of classical models of
diffusion and substitution impose simplification constraints to reach
analytical solvability. We use the System Dynamics methodology to build
upon existing models by integrating dynamic aspects derived from a broad
theoretical framework and to explore the links between social dynamics,
technological developments and substitution patterns. Our simulation model
generates a substitutive drop in the life cycle: a “Sydney opera” shape which
is not replicated by classical models but which is substantiated by empirical
data from the successive generations of DRAM. The generic structure can
generate the dynamics of a sailing ship effect and account for the non-
uniformity of interpersonal communications. The more general theory
embodied in the model allows to better und d the underlying

of technological substitutions.

Exploring U.S. Flood Mitigation Policies: A
Feedback View of System Behavior

Despite the availability of policy tools to mitigate property damage, relief
costs for disasters continue to rise. This paper presents a framework for
analyzing flood mitigation policies and policy design challenges in the
United States. The system dynamics model prepared for this research was
developed from qualitative data collected from over 300 sources, including
the extant literature on natural disasters, statements made by disaster experts,
government documents, policy analyses, and federal disaster mitigation
policies. The generic structure developed for this research, the flood- L model,
explains the of major p in any flood-p

Eleven policies were analyzed against three scenarios to show the benefit its
and burdens of several types of mitigation policies. The policies selected in
this analysis reflect the incentives established in the federal government’s
Community Rating System (CRS). In this paper, I show how the system
dynamics model was used as a theoretical framework and policy analysis tool
to explain the policy design I in every flood-p

Modelling the role of Intellectual Property
Manag t for the develop t of the
agricultural sector in developing countries -

The project is based on the activities of the West African Seed Alliance and
generates insights into the development process of the agricultural sector in
general and the seed market in specific by developing a system dynamics
model of these sectors. Using the model, the impact of Intellectual Property
Management as a policy parameter that could level the power relations
between dominant actors of the international private sector and local actors
that want to enter and succeed in the seed market will be illustrated.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Rajat Dhawan

r.dhawan@ econ.usyd.edu.au

University of Sydney

Business Information Systems

Faculty of Economics and Business H69
Sydney NSW Australia

Marcus O'Connor
University of Sydney
Business Information Systems
Sydney NSW 2006

Australia

Mark Borman

University of Sydney
Business Information Systems
Sydney NSW 2006

Australia

Rajat Dhawan

r.dhawan@ econ.usyd.edu.au

University of Sydney

Business Information Systems

Faculty of Economics and Business H69
Sydney NSW Australia

Marcus O'Connor
University of Sydney
Business Information Systems
Sydney NSW 2006

Australia

Mark Borman

University of Sydney
Business Information Systems
Sydney NSW 2006

Australia

Yong Du

ydu@ cs.toronto.edu

University of Toronto
Department of Computer Science
10 King’s College Road

Toronto ON MSS 3G4 Canada

What Our Mental Models Retain and What They
Don’t: An Experimental Follow-up of System
Dynamics Intervention

System dynamics tools claim to enhance our mental models by enabling us to
understand the elements of dynamic complexity thereby improving
performance in dynamic decision-making tasks. However to date these
claims have not been subject to rigorous experimental testing. The main
purpose of this study is to experimentally assess the long-term efficacy of
system dynamics interventions in understanding complex dynamic. This is
done by evaluating the effectiveness of system dynamics intervention that
was provided five months prior to the current examination. The results
demonstrate if (and which) elements of dynamic complexity are retained
even when people are not actively involved in using system dynamics. The
follow-up tests reveal that system dynamics intervention does make long-
term, fundamental changes in the way people think about complex systems.
Specifically, the ability to understand stocks and flows and recognize
feedback loop is retained.

Qualitative, Quantitative or both?: An
Experimental Investigation

System dynamics tools are used extensively to assist in understanding
complex feedback systems and design high leverage policies. These tools,
both qualitative and quantitative, claim to enhance our mental models by
enabling us to understand the elements of dynamic complexity, thereby
improving performance in dynamic decision-making tasks. However to date
these claims have not been subject to rigorous experimental testing.
Furthermore, the i ip between quali and itative system.
dynamics with respect to their ion and their respecti fi in
dynamic decision making tasks has been somewhat controversial The main
purpose of this study is to experimentally evaluate the relative efficacy of
qualitative system dynamics, quantitative system dynamics and a

of the two in complex dynamic systems. The
results demonstrate if, how and when these methodologies influence our
ing of dynamic si Our findings suggest that mere

qualitative system dynamics tools are helpful only in tackling simple
situations. However, mere quantitative system dynamics tools aid in much
more complex problems. Furthermore, the combination of the two tools is aid
in the understanding and subsequent performance in tasks involving dynamic
complexity.

Incorporating System Dynamics Modeling into
Goal-oriented Adaptive Requirements Engineering

Adaptive requii are system i that change either internally,
or externally in the environment, where environment includes the users and
other systems interacting with the subject system. Modeling and analyzing

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 77

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Richard G. Dudley
richard.dudley@ attglobal.net

PMB 239

14845 SW Murray Scholls Dr Ste 110
Beaverton OR 97007-9237 USA

Jim Duggan
jim.duggan@ nuigalway.ie
National University of Ireland Galway

adaptive requirements are important because change is a ubiquitous
phenomenon in social-technical systems. Engineering adaptive requirements
is also difficult because many contextual factors need to be taken account of,
and some of these factors (e.g., human intentional changes) are hard to
quantify. This paper investigates an approach to modeling adaptive
requirements by integrating system dynamics modeling into i* goal-oriented
modeling. We illustrate that each modeling method has its advantages that
are difficult or impossible to achieve using the other method, and each has its
limitations that can be overcome using the other method. We then propose a
goal-oriented adaptive requirements engineering (GARE) approach that
integrates desirable features of system dynamics into i*, taking advantage of
the goal-oriented modeling initiatives in i* and the built-in constructs in
system dynamics for modeling time-based system evolution and adaptation.

The Equity Supply Chain: Is it the Cause of So Few
Women in Management and Leadership Positions?

Women have comprised over half of US university students since the 1980s.
Women make up 45% of the US workforce. However women are poorly
represented in senior and leadership positions both in industry and on
university faculties. Only 16% of corporate officers and only 2% of CEOs at
major are women. If ii ing numbers of women have been in
the pipeline for over 25 years should more have emerged at the other end as
leaders? A simple model indicates that the pipeline delay hypothesis is not
sufficient to explain the relatively small numbers of women in senior and
leadership roles.

A Simulator for Continuous Agent-Based Modelling

This paper describes a simulation environment that can be used to integrate

D of ion Te 2:
University Road
Galway Ireland

78 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

jation-level ics with those occurring at an individual, or agent-
based, level. The benefit of this approach is that individual agent behaviour
may be mapped at a detailed level, using differential equations, and
aggregated over the entire population in order to determine population-level
dynamics. Furthermore, individual agents can interact with one another, in
terms of a social network structure. The environment is firmly grounded in
the system dynamics approach, and, unlike conventional agent-based
ing is not required in order to specify
agent interactions and behaviours. The approach is validated by using a case
study based on market dynamics. The overall benefits of the approach are
summarised, and future work discussed.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jorge A. Duran Encalada
jorgea.duran@ udlap.mx

Universidad de las Americas Puebla
College of Business Administration
AP No 100

Cholula Puebla 72820 Mexico

Alberto Paucar-Caceres
a.paucar@ mmu.ac.uk

Manchester Metropolitan University
Business School Aytoun Building
Aytoun Street

Manchester M1 3GH UK

Varun Dutt
varundutt@ yahoo.com
Carnegie Mellon University
5000 Forbes Avenue

208-J Porter Hall 2nd Floor
Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA

Cleotilde Gonzalez

conzalez@ andrew.cmu.edu

Carnegie Mellon University
Social and Decision Sciences Dept
5000 Forbes Ave Porter Hall 208
Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA

Michael F. Dwyer
mdwyer@ unlv.nevada.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
2109 Madagascar Lane

Las Vegas NV 89117

USA

Krystyna A. Stave
krystyna.stave@ unlv.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway

Box 454030

Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA

Sustainability Model for the Valsequillo Lake in
Puebla, Mexico: Combining System Dynamics and
Sustainable Urban Development

This paper reports on an on-going project on urban sustainability of the
Valsequillo Lake in Puebla, Mexico and the Puerto Aura to be developed in
this region. The purpose of the study is to build a simulation model to explore
the dynamic it ion of the di ions inherent in urban
development. After a systematic review of Sustainable Urban Development
(SUD) frameworks and tools used in various part of the world, the paper
designs a model that considers the variables that intervene in SUD and
proposes a System Dynamics model to simulate the dimensions that intervene
in a sustainable development of this type and to anticipate the consequences
of the decision making process. The structure and inter-relationships of the
model sectors are described, the sustainability indicators in each sector
explained; preliminary conclusions are drawn stating that a complete run of
the model simulating a 20 years horizon in monthly periods is expected when
the full data from the Puerto Aura master plan becomes available. Keywords:
i urban ing; envi
methods; system ics; si i Iti thodol

Slope of Inflow Impacts Dynamic Decision Making

In this paper, we show how participants learn to control a simple dynamic
stocks and flows task with repeated inflow and outflow decisions. We present
the effect that environmental inflow functions of different slopes (positive
and negative) have on our ability to control the simple dynamic system. We
investigate this slope effect in two experiments with two kinds of functions
(linear and non-linear), and we formalize the decision-making process
through a System Dynamics model. A process of human and model data
fitting common in the Cognitive Sciences helped explain the reasons for the
differences found in a system in which the slope of the inflow function is
positive in contrast to one in which the slope inflow function is negative
(although the total system net flow is the same).

Assessing the effect of a group model building
interevention: A comparative case study approach

This paper discusses the assessment of a group model building intervention
using a comparative approach. The relative degrees of collaboration and
consensus achieved by two stakeholder teams with similar task and group
are and iP Both groups were ‘professionally’
facilitated, one using a system dynamics group model building approach, and
the other a non-modeling approach. The results support the hypothesis that
the group model building results in a greater degree of collaboration and
consensus in problem solving groups than traditional facilitation methods.
Analysis of more than 2,700 member comments made during meetings

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 79

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Isaac Dyner

idyner@ yahoo.com

Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Carrera 18 #85-90 Apto 602
Bogota

Colombia

Santiago Arango
santiago.arango@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
System Dynamics Group
PO 7800

N-5020 Bergen Norway

Carlos Jaime Franco

cjfranco@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Carrera 80 #65 223 Bloque M8
Medellin

Colombia

James Ellison

jelliso@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories

PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137 USA

Andjelka Kelic

sly@ mitedu

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185 USA

Thomas F. Corbet

tfcorbe@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories

PO Box 5800 MS 0451
Albuquerque NM 87185-0451 USA

Mohamed EI-Minisy
mohamed.a.elminisy@ exxonmobil.com
Regional IT Institute

IIA Hassan Sabri

11211 Zamalek Cairo

Egypt

80 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

a

suggests that the that occurs in a d process is
dominated by alternative generation, virtually ignores what causes the
problem, and fails to separate the stages in the problem-solving process. The
analysis of group model building team comments shows a distinct ‘wave’
action that flows through the problem-solving stages.

Can a Reliability Charge Secure Electricity Supply?
An SD-based assessment of the Colombian power
market

he deregulation of the Colombian electricity market took place in 1994 and
the pool started operation in 1995. The Colombian market adopted a capacity
charge mechanism to increase incentives for investment in new capacity. The
capacity charge proved to be weak in terms of transparency and incentives,
causing negative effects on inves . Nowadays, the ion of the
capacity charge is over and a new mechanism is in place. The new
mechanism, the reliability charge, intends to provide reliability to the system.
We have previously used a st ‘d system ics approach to
evaluate alternative regulation schemes for the Colombian Electricity Market.
In this paper, we have updated the system dynamic model, formerly built, to
evaluate alternatives to the capacity charge mechanism. We have also
assessed the effect that the reliability charge mechanism may have over the
market and found that the proposed scheme may actually overcome some of
the drawbacks of the previous scheme; however, simulations indicate that
this may not have the desirable effects prompt enough to avoid blackouts.

Is A Natural Gas Strategic Reserve for the US
Necessary? A System Dynamics-Based Approach

The large volume of shut-in natural gas production in the US Gulf of Mexico
following the 2005 hurricane season led some US policymakers to consider
whether creating a Natural Gas Strategic Reserve (NGSR) might be
beneficial. This paper uses a system dynamics-based approach to analyze
whether a NGSR is needed, and what having one would mean for the US
natural gas infrastructure. Analysis shows that the infrastructure is likely
resilient in the face of a more stringent test than the 2005 hurricane season
provided. Moreover, as the infrastructure is essentially a closed system, any
replenishment of the NGSR would compete for gas with other users, and
depending on the rate of sk could cause a disruption as large as
that it was created to prevent.

A Generic Dynamic Model for Managing Channel
Conflict in the Egyptian Lubricants Distribution
Channels

It becomes very difficult to achieve needed coordination among channel

members, as one would expect, conflict in marketing channels could also be
caused by differences in the domain definition among channel members. The

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Khaled Wahba

Khaled. wahba@ riti.org

Cairo University

Regional IT Institute

11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211

Egypt

Burak Eskici
burak.eskici@ gmail.com
Bogazici University

Endustri Muh Bol Sesdyn Lab
Bebek 34342 Istanbul

Turkey

Burak Turkgulu
bt947148@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Milne 110

Albany NY 12222
USA

Mary Ewers

mewers@ lanl.gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory

D-4 Infrastructure & Energy Analysis

Decision Applications Division MS K557

Los Alamos NM 87545
USA

Lori Dauelsberg

lorid@ lanl.gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663 MS K557

Los Alamos NM 87545

USA

intensity of channel conflicts can range from minor flare-ups that are easily
forgotten to major di resulting in terminations or lawsuits.Using
the system dynamics as a tool to analyze and understand the cause and effect
of all significant variables and relationships affecting the rate of overlap in
the wholesale channel, the research brings to close that, pressures exerted by
producers on channel members, through incentives, intense number of
channel members, less focus from producers on long term objectives and
investing in strengthening brands, are the major elements of channel such a
channel conflict. As the main research objective is to develop a generic
model for managing channel conflict in the lubricants distribution channels in
Egypt, to simulate future possibilities with different focus scenarios, a model
was developed, tested and validated with respect to the Egyptian market, and
the research is recommending the generic model to be tested and used for
different industries using marketing channels.

Modeling the Dynamics of Avian Influenza
Epidemics and Possible Pandemics

Avian influenza, or “bird flu”, is a contagious disease of animals caused by
viruses that normally infect only birds; however there exist a dramatic
number of infected human cases. This research aims to understand the
dynamics of avian influenza epidemics in a closed, finite area by using
system dynamics methodology. The model is a network that links wild bird,
duck, poultry and human population sectors which are formed by several
classical SIR-model building blocks. The dynamics of recent outbreak is
analyzed with a base model; additionally some scenario and policy analyses
are done with modified models. The simulation experiments show that a
highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak is highly dependant on the
density of poultry population in the region. Growing duck and poultry
populations pose a great risk. A policy involving the recognition and
quarantining of low pathogenic virus infected birds is suggested at the end as
a tentative one.

Pandemic Influenza Mitigation Strategies and their
Economic Impacts

The current avian influenza in Asia, Africa, and Europe has sparked
discussions of a new human pandemic influenza perhaps hitting the world.
While the current influenza is not spread by human-to-human contact—a
necessary characteristic for a human pandemic—there is a potential that it
may become so. Since the pandemic does not currently exist, it is not known
what characteristics—such as infecti and death rate—the disease will
exhibit. The study conducted by the Critical Infrastructure Protection
Decision Support System (CIPDSS) explores the possible mitigation
strategies and their effect on the US economy. Results show that while many
people may be infected, the economic costs for the US are relatively low
compared to past economic perturbations.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 81

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Stephanie J. Fincher
steph_fincher@ hotmail.com
University of Nevada Las Vegas
7904 Canyon Grove Ct

Las Vegas NV 89131

USA

Krystyna A. Stave
krystyna.stave@ unlv.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway

Box 454030

Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA

Michael Fletcher
mefletcher@ gmail.com

9007 Meadow Heights Road
Randallstown MD 21133
USA

Andrew Ford

forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
Environmental Science

PO Box 644430

Pullman WA 99164-4430 USA

82 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

A Proactive Approach for Particulate Matter Air
Pollution Management

This paper analyzes the reactive management approach used in the Las Vegas
Valley to manage particulate matter (PM) pollution, demonstrates that system
dynamics concepts can improve the current strategy, and proposes a more
proactive approach to management. Two decision support systems (DSS)
were compared for this analysis: the current, linear proportional rollback
model and a system dynamics model attempting to capture the essential
feedback structure causing the problem. A retroactive policy analysis.
beginning in 1960, was performed to analyze the benefits and tradeoffs of a
more proactive management strategy. The analysis showed that including a
system dynamics perspective does improve the validity of the model and the
usefulness of the DSS for policy analysis. Preliminary analysis shows that a
proactive approach to management may lead to more effective policy options
and greater flexibility in managing this problem but may have prohibitively
high initial and/or sustained costs in some cases.

A Simple Model of Collaboration

This paper details a system dy ics model that rep: several pt

of collaboration. The model functions as a test bed for the design of a table-
top game of collaboration for management. The model allows for the testing
of game structure, dynamics and decision rules prior to human play testing.
It's main purpose is to ensure that the game represented collaboration
processes with sufficient fidelity to provide a useful learning experience. The
model is structured as a zero-sum-game competition for fixed exogenous
resources among any number of players. The players future resource
allocation is dependent on the players current level of success. The players
decide what fraction of resources to allocate to a local or community
production queues. Production is represented by a material aging chain. The
dynamics were tested using a simple set of decision rules to represent the
actions of human players. Using these decision rules the model output
produced many behaviours in models of in
System Dynamics, Game Theory and Agent Based Models.

Global Warming and System Dynamics

Global warming has emerged as the dominant environmental problem of our
time. The next fifty years will be a period of growing accumulation of
greenhouse gasses (GHG) in the atmosphere and rising temperatures. It could
also be a period in which the nations of the world adopt more stringent
policies to control the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other GHG. If
emissions are cut sufficiently, it is possible to stabilize GHG within the first
half of the century. The risks of global warming could be reduced, but not
eliminated. This paper describes recent applications of system dynamics to
improve our understanding of climate change, and it looks ahead to the
potential contributions in the future.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Tom Lum Forest
tforest@ alum.mitedu
Prometheal Systems

2023 18th Avenue

Forest Grove OR 97116-2717
USA

Hamid Foroughi

hamidforoughi@ yahoo.com

Sharif University of Technology
Graduate School of Mgt and Economics
Azadi Avenue

11365 Tehran Iran

Arash Agha Gholizadeh Khiavi
arash.sav@ gmail.com

Sharif University of Technology
GSME

Azadi Avenue

Tehran Iran

Shahram Abyari Ali Abad
sabyari@ yahoo.com

Tran Khodro

Shahrak e Gharb

Zarafshan St

Tehran Iran

Mahdi Ghasemi
abolghaasem@ yahoo.com
Tran Khodro Sales
Zarafshan St

Farahzadi St Sanat Square
Tehran Iran

Arsalan Paleshi
paleshi6@ yahoo.com
Tkco

Tarasht 3 Dorm Shahid Mohammadi Alley

Tarasht Sheykh Fazlollah Highway
Tehran Iran

Travis Franck
travler@ mitedu

MIT

1 Amherst St 40-428
Cambridge MA 02139
USA

Maya Apocalypse: Warfare-Punctuated
Equilibrium at the Limit of Growth

This paper explores the dynamics of population levels in Mayan lands from
the Late Preclassic to First Contact, roughly 500 BC - 1500 AD. It starts with
a simplified version of the Limits to Growth model and adds the effects of
warfare on available production. Drawing also from the 1976 MIT paper "A
Case Study of the Classic Maya Collapse (D-2429), this paper explores how
humans can politically intensify resource shortages into universal disaster.

How Price Fluctuations is Influenced by the
Response of Intermediaries to Different Sales
Methods:Case Study in Automotive Ind.

TranKhodro Co. (IKCO) is the largest automaker in Middle East. Although
this company has a particular interest in international markets, still domestic
market is its main market. Because of government regulations, rivalry is not
aggressive in domestic market, but real prices for various types of cars have
depreciated in recent years. Another problem this company encounters is the
instability of its market. Price fluctuations provide a good opportunity for
speculators to benefit from buying automobiles in low prices and selling
them in “higher” prices. On the other hand, presence of speculators in the
market aggravates the uncertainty because the manufacturer perceives a
demand different from the demand of end users and this leads to an
unbalanced demand-supply in market. In this paper we discuss how sales
policies of the company leads to above trends in prices and exacerbates its
financial problems. Using system dynamics modeling, we are going to
answer questions like: What has been the effect of different sales methods on
price fluctuations? And what is the effect of different sales methods in long
term?

Choice of utility functions in integrated assessment:
how subjective well-being can influence policy
analysis

To help inform public policy benefit-cost analysis, modelers calculate the

change in expected utility of a society. This utility calculation often is a
function of GDP per capita or economic consumption. Less widely used are

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 83

Parallel and Poster S

Douglas Franco

dfranco@ cantv.net

Econoinvest

Av Autocine

Res Pza Real Ap D32 La Boyera
Caracas 1083 Venezuela

Sheldon Friedman
sheldon.friedman@ comcast.net
35 Brightview Drive

West Hartford CT 06117
USA

Steven A. Cavaleri

cavaleri@ ccsu.edu

Central Connecticut State University
Management and Organization Dept
1615 Stanley Street RVAC 441

New Britain CT 06050

USA

Mike Raphael

Central Connecticut State University
Dept of Management & Organization
1615 Stanley Street

New Britain CT 06050

USA

84 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

subjective well-being utility functions that include relative consumption
levels as well as absolute levels of consumption. This paper explores how
utility function formulation can change the outcome of a benefit-cost
analysis. The choice of functional form is vital to realistically projecting the
utility impacts of a public policy and making the correct policy decision.
Using climate change policy as an example, the study shows that a simplified
subjective well-being utility function would encourage policy makers to
enact mitigation policy to prevent a large decrease in society’s long-term
utility, while a typical GDP/capita utility calculation would encourage
policymakers not to enact mitigation policy. This example highlights the
practical significance of choosing an appropriate utility measure. The study
concludes that the choice of utility function could change the results of cost-
benefit analyses and integrated assessment models.

Fifty Years of Table Functions

Table or lookup functions, TF, are part of System Dynamics models since the
very beginning fifty years ago. TF formulation, dynamics and
multidimensionality are analyzed and suggestions for their improvement are
presented. TF spread nonlinear dynamics to other variables involved and
simplify structure, allowing the ion on p R i
between nonlinear varying eigenvalues and TF” patterns are established,
which open the door for SD’ software improvements and further research. A
general shape, synthesizing typical TF’ patterns, plots a normal curve that the
Central Limit Theorem of statistics proves as the distribution of any
accumulation (level) of random variables. The random face of SD, uncovered
by Agent Base Simulation, converges into this normal curve, which gives
statistical grounds to lookup relationships and improves policy design by
fine-tuning estimation.

Individual Learning Style and Systems Tool
Preferences

Abstract: Research was carried out in order to determine if a relationship
existed between the use of specific system thinking tools and Kolb learning
styles. Subjects were university students who played the B & B Enterprise
game, took the Kolb Learning Styles Inventory and responded to a
questionnaire. These questions related to both the frequency and preferences
of use of specified system thinking tools and learning styles. The results
revealed that for some of the learning style orientations a significant
relationship with use and preferences of system thinking tools existed. These
results indicate that further study is needed to clarify any differences in
relationships between groups and between frequency and preferences. It is
thought that if a set of relationships can be identified, such knowledge could
facilitate the introduction of systems thinking and system dynamics to
selected groups within an organization. Keywords [Systems thinking, system
dynamics, Kolb Learning Styles].

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Margaret Fryling
mfryling@ uamail.albany.edu
University at Albany
MSC 100

1400 Washington Ave
Albany NY 12222

USA

Denis Garagic

denis@ icosystem.com
Icosystem Corporation

10 Fawcett Street
Cambridge MA 02138 USA

Tavor Trifonov

iavor@ icosystem.com
Icosystem Corporation

10 Fawcett Street
Cambridge MA 02138 USA

Paolo Gaudiano

paolo@ icosystem.com
Icosystem Corporation

10 Fawcett Street
Cambridge MA 02138 USA

The Dynamics of ERP Success

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) commercial software packages exploded
into the market during the 1990s as a popular way by which companies
attempted to integrate their financial, human resource, operation, and
customer information. Although ERP systems are capable of providing
significant returns on investment, they can also cause havoc in an
organization if not managed correctly. Research consistently reports that
implementation failure or success is people-related (Peterson, 2003; Tapp, et
al. 2003). It is often easier to blame the technology than to explore these
deeper complex issues but in the end they are the controlling factors. It is
important for managers to understand the non-technical dynamic
complexities if information system (IS) implementation success before
embarking on a new ERP project. The original IS Success Model (DeLone
and McLean, 2003) was developed prior to the enormous growth of ERP
implementations. It appears that current models do not include enough
feedback behavior between the constructs. Although the IS Success Model is
causal and does contain some feedback, there are additional causal
relationships not identified in the existing models that should be explored and
validated. This research will explore an extension of IS Success models using
system dynamics tools to explain ERP succe:

Agent-Based Modeling as a Tool for Manpower and
Personnel Management

This paper describes the develop ofa i t-based
simulation tool for modlings analysis and policy de- sign for complex.
or iors and i of NAVY &

Personnel (M&P) processes. Behavior of such a complex system is typically
associated with a hierarchical structure in which the lowest level agents are
characterized by continuous and discrete event-variable dynamics and the
highest level agents by a heuristic based decision-making mechanisms. The
interaction of these different levels, with their different types of information,
leads to the hybrid representation ot system behavioral dynamics by

and hodology (e.g.
system dynamics approach) on one hand and its dynamic simulation by
Agent-Based techniques on the other hand. The sys-tem dynamics approach
is used to develop a model that describes the dynamics of a sailor’s behavior
while he or she is enlisted with US Navy. Agent-based techniques are used to
handle heterogeneity in behaviors and domain descriptions asso-ciated with
Shipboard Manpower & Personnel Behaviors. Complex relationships
between individual sailor’s stress, motiva-tion and performance emerge from
model structure and interactions which allows us to perform analysis on two
levels: an aggregate level and one lower level on which individual sailors can
be dynamically modeled.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 85

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Rosanna Garcia
rgarcia@ neu.edu
Northeastern University
202 Hayden Hall
Boston MA 02115

A

Shayne Gary

sgary@ agsm.edu.au

Australian Graduate School of Mgmt
University of New South Wales
Sydney NSW 2052

Australia

Robert E. Wood
rwood@ agsm.edu.au

Co-opetition for the Diffusion of Resistant
Innovations: A Case Study in the Global Wine
Industry using an Agent-based Model
This study explores whether and how competitive cooperation, also known as

co-opetition, can be utilized to speed the rate of diffusion of resistant
innovations, which are defined as products that consumers are reluctant to

adopt. We i i a specific i ion, ps on fine wines, as a
case study. We explore the extent to which wineries embrace co-opetition
ies through a di marketing We model both

demand-side and supply-side diffusion within the context of a conjoint
simulation. In this ABM simulation, each agent is modeled as either a utility-
maximizing (consumers) or profit-maximizing (firms) agent. Both consumers
and firms interact, share information, and/or react to decisions by other
agents. The underlying data consist of international surveys of over 2,800
consumers, including conjoint analyses, in Australia, New Zealand, and the
US coupled with over 20 in-depth interviews of wine producers in the US. In
particular, we endow a sample of consumers with preferences based on the
conjoint analyses and allow them to interact with one another and with wine
producers. Wine producers are rational profit-maximizing agents who decide
whether or not to produce wines with Stelvins based on the amount they can
sell at (endogenously) chosen characteristics, price, and advertising levels.

Testing the Effects of a System Dynamics Decision
Aid on Mental Model Accuracy and Performance
on Dynamic Decision Making Tasks

Previous studies have suggested that decision aid support can positively
affect performance on dynamic decision making tasks. However, few studies
have examined the effects of decision aid support on the cognitive
mechanisms underpinning performance. This study tested the relationships
between decision aid support (in the form of causal loop diagrams), task
complexity, cognitive load, mental model accuracy and performance, using a
product lifecycle management simulation. Results indicate that task
complexity and decision aid support are significant predictors of mental
model accuracy, and that decision aid support moderates the relationship
between task complexity and mental model accuracy. In addition, task
complexity and mental model accuracy are significant predictors of
performance. Our findings regarding the beneficial impact of decision aid
support on mental model accuracy and on incremental gains in learning and
performance highlight the importance of understanding the underlying
cognitive mechanisms at work. Designing more effective decision aids to
enhance the development of accurate mental models is one path with a great
deal of potential to improve performance in dynamic decision making
environments.

86 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Shayne Gary

sgary@ agsm.edu.au

Australian Graduate School of Mgmt
University of New South Wales
Sydney NSW 2052 Australia

Martin H. Kune

martin.kunc@ uai.cl

Universidad Adolfo Ibaiiez

Carlos Silva Vildosola 9580 Casa L
786-0130 La Reina Santiago Chile

John D. W. Morecroft
jmorecroft@ london.edu
London Business School
Regent's Park

London NW1 4SA UK

Scott F. Rockart
srockart@ duke.edu

Duke University

Fuqua School of Business
Box 90120

Durham NC 27708 USA

Carmine Garzia
carmine.garzia@ lu.unisi.ch
University of Lugano
Via Giuseppe Buffi 13
CH-6904 Lugano
Switzerland

Fritz Gassmann
fritz. gassmann@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Institute
CH-5232 Villigen
Switzerland

System Dynamics and Strategy: Accomplishments
and Future Opportunities

Do the concepts, methods, and resulting insights that constitute the field of
system dynamics have much to offer for research in strategy? While we
believe the answer is yes, it is easy to conclude otherwise. Insights about
equilibrium conditions arising from economics and sociology serve as the
primary theoretical underpinnings for most researchers and teachers of
strategy. Unsurprisingly, therefore, formal models in strategy generally
derive equilibrium states based on the assumption that actors optimize under
various constraints and most empirical work in strategy looks for evidence of

ies affecting p equilibrium Over the last several
decades, strategy academics have produced and imported a huge stock of
such comparative-statics insights and evidence. This stock overshadows the
much smaller stock of research on dynamics and behavioural decision
making in the system dynamics tradition.

Untangling the Origins of Strategic Innovation. A
System Dynamics Approach

in strategic positioning enables to redefine the way to
do business delivering more value to customers and achieving superior
competitive performances. We present a System Dynamics simulation model
in which the firm’s ability to generate and implement innovation in strategic
positioning is determined by three factors. Firstly it is related to the ability to
govern the technical innovation process. Secondly strategic innovation
processes occur in firms characterised by a certain degree of entrepreneurial
orientation. Entrepreneurial orientation is deeply influenced by the
duction of ions that allow the release of the
ial energy eml in the or i structure. Thirdly,
technical innovations become strategic innovations only if top managers are
able to manage a process of integration through which they integrate new
technical initiatives into the company’s strategy. Simulations showed that the
effectiveness of i is by top managers’ ability
to balance the ial orientation of middle-I with a
high degree of discipline. It is essential for top managers to control the
quality of innovations rather than to stimulate a relevant flow of innovations.
Only by controlling the quality at different stages and during the integration
phase can top managers assure a successful strategic renewal process.

Theory of Stable Dynamical Systems

During development of a dynamical model to simulate the central T-cell
subsystem of the human immune system, its extraordinary stability lead to
the assumption that it might be deduced solely from stability considerations.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 87

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Mathias Bosshardt
mathias.bosshardt@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Institut
OVGA 115

CH-5232 Villigen
Switzerland

Navid Ghaffarzadegan
navidg@ gmail.com

University at Albany

570-2A Western Avenue
Albany NY 12203 USA

Navid Ghaffarzadegan
navidg@ gmail.com

University at Albany

570-2A Western Avenue
Albany NY 12203 USA

Amir T. Tajrishi
amir_tajrishi@ yahoo.com
CIDCO

15 Ghobadyan St Vali Asr Ave
Tehran Iran

Niyousha Hosseinichimeh
niyoush@ gmail.com

University at Albany

570-2A Western Ave

Albany NY 12203 USA

Aref Gharakhani
aref.gharakhani@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology

Department of Computer Engineering

Azadi Ave
Tehran
Tran

88 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

We demonstrate that linear stability conditions together with additional
general requirements indeed define a low number (of the order of 10) of
dynamical systems from about 1.E10 possibilities for systems with up to four

dona
We expect that our ten dynamical subsystems are generic and will be found
as basic building blocks in biological, social or technical systems.

from evolutionary p es might be

How a System Backfires: From a Redundancy
Solution to Redundancy Problems in Security

Increasing attention is being paid to reliability, safety, and security issues in
social systems. Scott Sagan (2004) examined why more security forces (a
redundancy solution) may produce less security (redundancy problems). In
that paper, he discussed how the system could cause backfire in three major
ways (i.e. “common mode error”, “social shirking”, and
“overcompensation”). Using Sagan’s hypotheses, I simulate and analyze a
simplified and generic security system as more guards are added. Simulation
results support two of the hypotheses, showing “common mode error” makes.
the system backfire, and “social shirking” creates inefficiency in the system
as well as exacerbating the common mode error’s effect. Simulation results
show “overcompensation” has no effect on backfiring, but leads the system to
a critical situation, in which it could easily be affected by “common mode
error.” The structure of the model and simulation results give some insights
into developing appropriate security policies.

Economic Transition Management in Iranian
Cement Industry

Last decade, a lot of countries implemented a transition policy from centrally
planned d ies to market ies, while experiencing
different socio-economic side effects. After these years, it is still an important
issue in the countries which are not completely adjusted to market economy
style, to manage the transition process in order to experience less wild
fluctuations in prices. This paper represents recommended policies for
Iranian Cement Industry which will deal with economic transition in near
future. Using a System Dynamics approach, this paper gives some insights
into ing similar ic policy p

valuating Iran's Progress in the ICT Sector Using
the e-Readiness Index, a System Dynamics
Approach

In the modern era, the of it requires
improvement in other fields such as communication technologies,
of human business envi , legal

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Masoud Moshref
masood_mj@yahoo.co.uk

Sharif University of Technology
Computer Engineering Dept
Tehran

Tran

Daniel Goldsmith
goldsmith@ mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
50 Memorial Drive E53-323
Cambridge MA 02139 USA

Michael Siegel
msiegel@ mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School E53-323
Cambridge MA 02142
USA

Masanori Akiyama
poas@ mit.edu
MIT

Center for Digital Business NE20-336

Cambridge MA 02142
USA

Paulo Gongalves
paulog@ miami.edu

University of Miami

5250 University Drive KE 404
Coral Gables FL 33124

USA

and so on. Indicators that measure the growth of ICTs in different societies
have also pointed out this importance. National legislators are always seeking
means to improve ICTs and use them as an enabler of industry in their
countries. a number of developing countries have devoted a considerable
effort but have not achieved the results they were expecting. In recent years,
Iran, like many other of the developing countries, has made a desperate
attempt to get engaged in similar activities, but nothing in particular has been
achieved. In this paper, we will take a system dynamics approach to model
changes in the progress of information technology in Iran. Sources of many
of the problems showed up After the simulation of the model. We have also
outlined the policies required for reaching a steady growth in the future.

Improving Hospital Operations Using Bar-Code
Capture Data and System Dynamics Modeling
Techniques

To better understand the factors that support or inhibit process improvement
in a hospital setting, we conducted a study of one hospital’s attempt to
implement a health information system (HIS) to reduce errors in medical
treatment and manage material flows. We propose a dynamic model
capturing the evolution of the interactions among the “physics” underling
hospital operations, information technology (IT), and staff behavior. We
show that early success in one phase of process improvement can create
unintended feedback in a later phase. We use a system dynamics model to
examine losses in performance in these later phases. We then recommend
management improvements in both materials and staff utilization and
estimate the resultant cost-saving. As part of this analysis we explore
opportunities to merge real-time operational data with feedback modeling to
provide dynamic tools for hospital administration, risk management, and
education and training. We believe that the major gains in HIS use will
accompany new information gathering capabilities, as these capabilities
result in collections of data that can be used to greatly improve patient safety,
hospital operations, and medical decision support.

Returns in the Corn Supply Chain

Hybrid seed suppliers experience excessive and costly rates of seed returns
from dealers, who order in advance of grower demand realization and may
return unsold seeds at the end of the season. Here we develop a formal
dynamic model of the interaction of sales effort allocation and dealer
hoarding behavior leading to high corn seed returns through a model-based
field study. Sales representatives know they should carefully gather
information on grower demand for seed types and quantities to improve their
demand forecast (positioning effort). However, they abandon time-
consuming seed positioning late in the sales cycle to push out dealers’
inflated orders and quickly meet revenue quotas. Such push effort leads to
excessive returns in the next period, generating more inflated orders by
dealers and increasing the total sales that agents must achieve to meet their
quota, requiring them to push still more seed. While returns can have several
causes, this work describes how sales resource availability and biased sales
effort allocation can generate a self-perpetuating stream of returns.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 89

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Paraskevas Gravouniotis
p.gravouniotis@ imperial.ac.uk

Imperial College London

Centre for Energy Policy and Tech

Prince Consort Road RSM Bldg 4th Floor
London SW7 2BP

UK

Ausilio Bauen

a bauen@ imperial.ac.uk

Imperial College London

RSM Building Prince Consort Road
London SW7 2BP

UK

Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de

University of Berne

Interfacultary Ctr for General Ecology
Postbox 8573

3001 Berne Switzerland

90 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Energy equipment diffusion & touristic
competitiveness: Building an SD model for the
Greek islands

The real-world problem the research aims to address is the continuing highly
seasonal, exponential electricity demand growth in the Greek islands that are
unconnected to the national electricity grid over the past decades. This paper
presents only part of the on-going research. It specifically tests an early draft
of the sub-model concerned with the interplay of an island’s tourism volume
& attractiveness, local technological learning-by-using effects and the

ics of d \d-sid i diffusion. The general assumption is
that a tourist chooses a basket of services received at the place visited, one of
which is cooling comfort. Cooling-comfort to installed
cooling capacity and in effect electricity consumption. This paper examines
the sub-model which, based on a figure of cooling comfort per person,
constructs an indicator of competitiveness to similar ions and relates
the flow of tourists to it. Similarly, a cost comparison incorporating a
learning curve between a conventional and an efficient variant of cooling
equipment drives the installation stocks at any time and effectively alters the
efficiency of the overall service across the island. The sub-model is run for a
number of structural and behavioural tests and also assessed for its potential
use in policy making.

The Structure and Dynamics of the Residential
Building: Which Mechanisms Determine the
Development of the Building Stock?

The residential building environment and the belonging values creation
network isting of several i p actors has not obtained much
attention from the field of science. Even though much litera-ture exists about
the diffusion of innovations (e.g., Rogers 1995), the diffusion process of
innovations in the residential building system is not fully understood. Hence,
the enormous potential to reduce CO2-emmsions can not be utilized. In
Switzerland, a research project tries to elaborate the different processes in the
building environment in order to provide policy interventions based on a
system dynamics model. Based on this research project, we present the
interconnections between the different actors in the system. Thereby, we
want to depict the inner life of each important actor group via a details
simulation model. In the current version of the paper, only some details about
the individual building owners can be provided. For the other actors,
empirical survey research is in the process of being executed, after the
completion of which dedicated models can be presented, different policies
tested and implications discussed.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de
University of Berne

Interfacultary Ctr for General Ecology

Postbox 8573
3001 Berne Switzerland

Suzanne Bruppacher
susanne.bruppacher@ ikaoe.unibe.ch
Universitat Bern

IKAOe

Schanzeneckstr 1 Postfach 8573
CH-3001 Bern Switzerland

Andreas GréBler

agroe@ gmx.de

Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Postbus 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen

The Netherlands

Alexander Zock
alexander.zock@ ecad-aviation.de

Decisions in the Construction Process of the
Residential Building Environment: Development of
a Static and Dynamic Model

The residential building environment accounts to a large extent for the

ission of greenhouse gases. In Switzerland, 27% of the carbon dioxide

ns are generated by heating houses and providing warm water and
electricity. The employment of existing state of the art energy efficient
technologies can reduce these emissions significantly. Why are the
technologies not applied on a regular basis? In this paper, we focus on the
decisions the individual building owner has to make during the house
planning process. The paper’s contribution is multifold: systematization of
important decisions during the planning process, development of a static
theory of decision making based on psychological action theories, enrichment
of the static theory by empirical research, and development of a dynamic
theory. From a superior content point of view, the paper sheds light on the
decisions during the building planning process. From a methodological
perspective, the paper adds to more traceability during the model
conceptualization phase. In other words, the art of modeling is partially
substituted by a rigorous, scientific research process. This paper is still under
development; especially the formulation of the system dynamics model and

the s! will be d ped further in following versions of
the paper.

Tell me ‘why’ or ‘how’ — A Heuristic to Choose
between Quantitative and Qualitative Systems
Analysis
The paper deals with one of the oldest and still most pressing issue in system
dynamics: “when to map and when to model”. We propose a heuristic to be

used in system dynamics projects to give an indication whether one should
aim at quantitative modeling (i.e., the classical system dynamics approach) or

European Ctr for Aviation L
Lise-Meitner-Strasse 10
62493 Darmstadt

Germany

whether quali will be sufficient: (1) If the problem definition
phrase starts with the word “why”, often causal explanations for the
development of variables should be the result of the project; in this case, the
ion of dynamic iour needs the i of
simulation models because of the difficulties people have with inferring
dynamics from complex models; (2) If the problem definition phrase starts
with the word “how”, the structure of a system is asked for; then, the result of
the project is usually a graphical representation of the shared understanding
of team members about the structure of a system, which can be achieved by
using quali delli iques like causal-loop diagram:
or policy structure diagrams.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 91

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Andreas GréBler

agroe@ gmx.de

Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Postbus 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands

Peter M. Milling

pmilling@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University

Schloss S 202 Industrieseminar
D-68131 Mannheim

Germany

Andreas Hadjis
ahadjis@ cycollege.ac.cy
Cyprus College

6 Diogenes St Engomi
1516 Nicosia

Cyprus

George Nathaniel Papageorgiou
gpapageo@ cycollege.ac.cy

Cyprus College

Dept of Management

6 Diogenes Str Engomi PO Box 22006
1516 Nicosia Cyprus

Tim Haslett
thaslett@ bigpond.netau
Monash University
1/164 Highett Street
Richmond 3121 Victoria
Australia

92 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Inductive and Deductive System Dynamics
Modeling

The paper presents and discusses the distinction between inductive and
deductive System Dynamics modeling. Findings are that the distinction
between inductive and deductive modeling is helpful in appropriately setting
up, conducting, and evaluating System Dynamics projects. The discussion is
based on a literature review, conceptual considerations, and the insights
gained from case studies, both within business and academia. Implications
are different processes, different potential outcomes, and different
possibilities for i ion for the two modeling app The value
of the paper lies in a new perspective on the most relevant question, why
some System Dynamics projects thrive while others fail.

Validation of System Dynamics Models: A Taguchi
Methods-based Approach

This paper presents the development of an effective and practical method to

the methodology for validating system d: ics models. The
method is based on an analogy drawn between the system dynamics model
development process and the quality design and manufacturing product
development process of an industrial context. Employing this metaphor the
revolutionary Taguchi principles of Robust Design can be utilized in the
validation process of system dynamics models. The proposed Taguchi-based
approach is applied and tested in case of a system dynamics corporate model.
The results show that with relatively few steps at the beginning of the
validation process and in the sub-category of reference behavior tests, the
modeler can significantly contribute to successfully reaching the desirable
state of “consensus validity of model use”, consistent with the
relativist/holistic philosophy of science.

From Hospital Plans to Computer Simulation: A
Case Study of the Alfred Centre.

This paper is a preliminary examination of findings that have arisen from a
System Dynamics model that has been derived from the initial plan for the
Alfred Centre. The Alfred Centre was designed as a stand-alone short stay
day procedural centre integrated within the Alfred, one of Melbourne’s major
hospitals. The model is a patient flow model that links the surgical
procedures, medical interventions, and endoscopy interventions to the
outpatient capacity.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Tone Haveland
tone haveland@ powersim.no
Powersim Software AS
PO Box 125 Nyborg
N-5871 Bergen

Norway

Steinar Moen
steinar.moen@ powersim.no
Powersim Software AS
Post-box 125

Nyborg 5871 Bergen
Norway

Arne Krakenes
Powersim Software AS
Postbox 125 Nyborg
5871 Bergen

Norway

Bjorn Storegjerde
bs@ powersim.no
Powersim Software AS
Post-box 125

Nyborg 5871 Bergen
Norway

Gerrit Heijkoop
g.heijkoop@ boercroon.nl

Delft University of Technology
Vaartstraat 64-111

1075 RS Amsterdam
Netherlands

Scott Cunningham

scotte@ thm.tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

Magdy Helal
mhelal@ mail.ucf.edu
University of Central Florida

Univ Analysis and Planning Support
12424 Research Parkway Suite 215

Orlando FL 32826 USA

Luis Rabelo
Irabelo@ mail.ucf.edu

Integrating Dynamic Simulation and Risk Analysis
in Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

This paper explains how risk analysis has been added to a Geographic
Information System (GIS) by integrating dynamic simulation models. The
GIS ication provides from an area in the map,
which is selected by the user, and retrieves the results of the simulation in
return. These dynamic results may be displayed on the map, possibly in
combination with relevant static information from other data sources
available to the GIS system, for instance, population density and area
development plans. The solution is a result of a commercial collaboration
between the two Norwegian software vendor companies, Norkart AS and
Powersim Software AS. Norkart is responsible for the GIS part of the
solution through their GIS application GIS/LINE. Powersim Software
provides the simulation capabilities through their simulation software Studio
7. Based on requests from Norkart’s customers for risk analyses, two models
were developed; 1. The first model simulates the movement of water through
soil to identify the risk of landslide. 2. The second model simulates the
diffusion and movement of poisonous gases, based on gas types, wind force
and wind direction. The solution can easily be extended to cover other
problem areas, like flooding and oil spill.

System Dynamics Modeling of Benefit Realization
When Adopting New Software

During the late to mid 1990s, many companies chose to implement Enterprise
Resource Planning (ERP) systems, often in the slipstream of the ‘information
revolution’ or as a ‘quick’ fix for the upcoming Y2K problem. A paradox
currently facing both business as scientific analysts is that, as the potential
benefits of these systems are almost self explicatory, only few seem to be
able to transform this potential into value. The combination of the rush into
complex technology and the large impact that ERP systems have on
organizations, provides a fertile soil for complicated problems. System
dynamics problems often deal with the interaction of technology and
organizations; embedding this project in the research context of system
dynamics makes a good fit.

A methodology for Integrating and Synchronizing
the System Dynamics and Discrete Event
Simulation Paradigms

With the adoption of integration and system perspectives in managing the
manufacturing systems and the pressure imposed by the increased
competition and rapidly changing business environment, the need has arisen
for new approaches for simulating the manufacturing enterprise. We have
proposed SDDES; a hybrid System Dynamics Discrete Event Simulation

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 93

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jose Sepulveda
sepulved@ mail.ucf.edu

Albert Jones
albert,jones@ nist.gov

Yufeng Ho

hyfarch@ ms32.hinet.net

Chaoyang University of Technology
PO Box 30-117

Taichung 407

Taiwan

Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting
3618 Avalon Court
Voorhees NJ 08043
USA

Gary B. Hirsch

gbhirsch@ comcast.net

Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road

Wayland MA 01778

USA

Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ cdc.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention

approach to simulating the ing enterprise. SDDES
offers ive si ion models that pass all
levels and recognize the differences between them in terms of scope and
frequency of decision making as well as the levels of details preferred and
used at each level. SDDES maintains the integrity of the two simulation
paradigms and can use existing/legacy simulation models without requiring
learning new simulation skills. In this paper we describe the modular
structure of SDDES, our method to synchronize and coordinate SD and DES,
and the functional model of the SDDES controller, which manages the

ion of the two si i hodol

Simulation and Analysis of Taichung Urban
Ecosystem

In Taichung there is considerable concern about urban problems, such as the
deterioration of living conditi ing and empty , the
congestion of traffic, the shortage of open space and | many other aspects of
the urban social, and Most of the existing
planning methods in this context addressed only one or two of the three
laa The purpose of this study is therefore to develop an integrated
for ishing an urban 1 system to maintain a

balanced relationship between human needs and urban ecology. A dynamic

ion model, ining urban ecological theory with the techniques of
system dynamic, is suggested so that the multiple objectives of urban
development can be pursued sustainably to achieve a better quality of life for
every citizen, now and for generation to come.

Chronic Illness in a Complex Health Economy: The
Perils and Promises of Downstream and Upstream
Reforms

Chronic illness is the largest cause of death and source of health care costs in
developed countries and has become a significant problem in developing
countries as well. This paper begins with a review of past work in System
Dynamics concerning populations with chronic illness. It then presents a
generic model of illness in a population and its and p
applied to the U.S. population, The model explains the rising prevalence ‘of
illness as well as responses to it, responses which include the treatment of
complications as well as disease management activities designed to reduce
the occurrence of future complications. The model shows how progress in

e and disease has slowed since 1980 in

360 Brooks Avenue NE the U.S., largely due to a behavioral tug-of-war between health care payers

Atlanta GA 30307 and providers that has resulted in price inflation and an unstable climate for

USA health care investments. The model is also used to demonstrate the impact of
moving “upstream” by managing known risk factors to prevent illness onset,
and moving even further upstream by addressing adverse behaviors and
living conditions linked to the of these risk factors in the first
place.

94 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Peter S. Hovmand

phovmand@ wustl.edu

Washington University in St Louis
Brown School of Social Work

One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
Saint Louis MO 63130

USA

David N. Ford

davidford@ tamu.edu

Texas A&M University

Dept Civil Engineering Mailstop 3136
College Station TX 77843-3136

USA

Stavroula Kyriakakis

Washington University in St Louis
Brown School of Social Work

One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
St Louis MO 63130

USA

Ingrid Flom

Washington University in St Louis
Brown School of Social Work

One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
St Louis MO 63130

USA

Peter S. Hoymand

phovmand@ wustl.edu

Washington University in St Louis
Brown School of Social Work

One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
Saint Louis MO 63130 USA

David F. Gillespie

davidfg@ fidnet.com

Washington University in St Louis
320 Heatherly Lane

New Haven MO 63068

USA

Women Arrested for Domestic Violence:
Unintended Consequences of Pro and Mandatory
Arrest Policies

Domestic violence is a major social problem worldwide. In the United States,
the failure of communities and police departments to intervene resulted in a
push to adopt and implement pro and mandatory arrest policies for domestic
violence. These policies have led to an unexpected increase in the number of
arrests of women. Competing explanations have been offered. This paper
describes the development of a system dynamics model of women arrested
for domestic violence. Results suggest that these policies may have created or

da cross hanism that shifts the risk of arrests in domestic
violence cases from men to women. Model analysis demonstrates how the
changing role of cooperation between advocates and police can help explain
the trends in women arrests. Implications for research and policy are
discussed.

Dynamics of Innovation Implementation and
Organizational Performance in Mental Health
Services

While organizational variables play an important role in the adoption and
implementation of evidence based practices in mental health, most
researchers have assumed that i ion leads to improving
organizational performance. Yet existing organizational theory suggests that

ion differs by izati characteristics, and certain
configurations can lower organizational performance. This paper shows how
implementation of evidence based practice impacts organizational
performance. Specifically, we present a system dynamics simulation model
of implementation and organizational performance based on existing theory,
system dynamics research, and key informant interviews. By varying
organizational characteristics we learn how implementation affects
organizational performance, and then explain these effects through
subsequent behavioral analysis. These analyses lead to a simplification of the
theory and model. The theory implies that benefits from evidence-based
practice depend on how fast managers can implement the innovation relative
to the quality improvement process.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 95

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Susan Howick

susan howick@ strath.ac.uk

University of Strathclyde
Department of Management Science
40 George Street

Glasgow G1 1QE UK

Jason Whalley
jason.whalley@ strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Dept of Management Science
40 George Street

Glasgow G1 1QE UK

Qian Hu

qhu001@ webmail.uib.no
University of Bergen
Fantoft Studentboliger
Postboks 473

5075 Bergen Norway

Lizhen Huang
Thu062@ webmail. uib.no
Fuzhou University
Faculty of Management
35002 Fujian

China

Broadband adoption: the case of rural and remote
Scotland

Broadband has been described as a transforming technology and is now
widely available in many developed countries. However, broadband
availability is not the same as broadband adoption. If the socio-economic
benefits of broadband are to be realised, then adoption needs to be both
understood and encouraged. This is particularly important in rural and remote
areas. This paper explores the factors that drive broadband adoption in one
particular tural and Temote area; rural and remote Scotland. A causal model
anda ion model are ing how the various
drivers of adoption interact with one another. Both models show that past
policy initiatives have impacted on the rate of adoption. However, the
greatest impact could be achieved if future policy initiatives target those
people who show no interest in adopting broadband. The paper concludes by
suggesting that this work has implications for rural and remote areas all
around the world.

An experimental study on the construction of
electricity power stations in China

The history of electricity industry in China can be generalized as cycles of
electricity shortage and surplus. It’s widely believed that lack of accurate
information about future electricity demand is the main cause to this
problematic phenomenon. However, there are still few people who believe
long time of power station construction so that the investors ignore the
stations under construction is the main effect, rather than the information
about electricity demand. In this paper, an experiment is carried out to test
whether these hypotheses are right or not. Factorial designs with 2
treatments, information about stations under construction and information of
future electricity demand, are used to test which of these two factors is the
main effect. Statistical analysis indicates that awareness of how many
stations are under construction will greatly improve the performance of
subjects, while information about the future electricity demand, although
assumed accurate, has no significant effect on the performance of the
subjects.

The bullwhip effect in the closed loop supply chain

A simple system ics model of a traditional/closed loop supply chain
system is investigated. Particularly, the effect of remanufacture,
remanufacturing lead-time and the return rate on the inventory variance and
bullwhip effect were studied. Our results clearly showed that the bullwhip in
the closed loop supply chain is bigger than one in the traditional supply chain
and foreign to the collection rate, and the inventory variance in every stage
decrease when the fi is introduced into the tradi 1 supply
chain. Furthermore, we found that the bullwhip effect in the closed loop

96 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Firat Incioglu
firat.incioglu@ gmx.net
Bogazici University

Saral Sitesi D Blok 19
Gayrettepe Istanbul 34349
Turkey

Moosung Jae

jae@ hanyang.ac.kr
Hanyang University
Dept of Nuclear Eng

17 Haengdang Sungdong
Seoul 133-791 Korea

supply chain will increase when the short term lead time of remanufacture
cycle time increase and is independent of the long term lead time of
remanufacture, and inventory variance will increase in first two stages but
will decrease for the producer stage.

A Dynamic Simulation Model for Long-Term
Hypertension Progression

Dynamics of blood pressure over the life span of a human being demonstrates
a growth path. The most significant theories which try to explain dynamics of
blood pressure adopt a kidney-dep approach. I red in
the size of renal arterioles (vascular remodeling) and loss of nephrons are
considered to be primarily responsible for the progressive increase in blood
pressure. A dynamic simulation model is constructed to realistically
reproduce the long-term progression of blood pressure in healthy and in
hypertensive people. It focuses on systemic interactions that result in vascular
remodeling of renal arterioles and in loss of nephrons. These hypertensive
mechanisms are integrated with fluid volume and blood pressure control
mechanisms which are aimed to achieve homeostatis. This study suggests
that progression of blood pressure can suitably be modeled by
conceptualizing the problem as a long-term control of fluid excretion
capacity. The reference behaviors for normal and hypertensive people
underline alternative pathways in blood pressure progression. Experiments
with the model demonstrate that management of the number of remodeled
arterioles over time should be an essential task in long-term blood pressure
progression control. Scenario runs with the simulation model help distinguish
successful policies from the ineffective interventions.

Development of radiation risk assessment simulator
using system dynamics

The potential magnitude of radionuclide releases under severe accident
loadings and offsite consequences as well as the overall risk are calculated.
System dynamics methodology useful for complex systems such as a nuclear
power plant has been applied for representing the time-dependent and
uncertain behavior of complex physical system. Dynamic variation of
radioactivities were simulated by considering several effects such as
deposition, weathering, washout, resuspension, root uptake, translocation,
leaching, senescence, intake and excretion of soil by animals, intake and
excretion of feedstuffs by animals. The input data to the model include the
time of the year when the deposition occurs. The ti p

i ical model has been ped in order to assess the radiological
consequences following the short-term deposition of radionuclides during
severe accidents nuclear power plant. The ingestion food model may be run
deterministically to yield single estimates or stochastically to provide
distributional output that reflects uncertainty of parameter and model
uncertainties. The values of the input parameters to the dynamic ingestion
pathway model were selected to represent the site-specific The results of this
study may contribute to identifying the relative importance of various

occurred in y analysis, as well as to assessing risk

reduction and accident management strategi:

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 97

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jason Jay

jiay@ mit.edu

MIT

50 Memorial Drive E52-509
Cambridge MA 02142
USA

George Roth

groth@ mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
77 Vasser St Bldg 41 Rm 205
Cambridge MA 02139

USA

Jianguo Jia
jiajianguo@ yahoo.com
Tongji University

Room 401 Building 43
Guoquan Road 99
Shanghai 200433 PR China

Yu Lu

ly-papers@ 163.com

Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital
401 Room 43 Building

99 Guoquan Road

Shanghai 200433 China

Jianguo Jia
jiajianguo@ yahoo.com
Tongji University

Room 401 Building 43
Guoquan Road 99
Shanghai 200433 PR China

98 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

From Continuous Improvement to Centralized
Information: The Life and Times of a Systems
Thinking Intervention

This mixed-method P case study ines the i ion of
a systems thinking intervention - The Manufacturing Game™ ~ as part of a
comprehensive approach to “Proactive Manufacturing” and workforce
involvement in continuous improvement at an American oil refinery. Notable
gains in local reliability metrics such as Mean Time Between Failure were
achieved as a result of these efforts, which contributed to financial, safety,
and environmental performance. At the same time, the overall impact of the
program on the refinery’s performance is ambiguous, confounded by
simultaneous investments in the physical capital and capacity of the plant that

significant value. This ity created interpretive flexibility for
employees of the plant, who were able to both interpret and shape the
continuous improvement activities based on prior political divisions, mental
models, and interpretive biases. A structurational perspective is employed to
understand these emergent and unintended consequences. From this
perspective, a speculative model of relational conflict that undermines
workforce participation in i imp is ps

System Dynamics Modeling for Overtime
Management Strategy of Software Project

Schedule overrun is a major problem that disturbed software project team.
How to solve this problem? For most software project managers, the first
reaction is to work overtime. There is no doubt overtime can alleviate this
problem to some extend, but is it an effective way all the time? If not, when
shall we give up overtime and change to other ways? This paper analyzed
those problems in detail and gave some conclusions in the end. That is for a
software project team which has reached its overtime limit, further overtime
can only result in much longer completion date. Thus the best overtime
policy is to first set a proper scheduled completion date, then try to find the
minimums project completion time. The overtime range related to this
minimums project completion time will be the critical point to stop further
overtime.

System Dynamics Modeling for Medicine Price
Policy in China
There is a strange phenomenon in medicine market of china: abuse of a lot of

expensive medicine such as antibiotic, while the low price medicine
disappearing in market, and the medicine price is going higher and higher to

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jianxun Chu

chujx@ uste.edu.cn

Univ of Science & Technology of China
Dept of Sci-Tech Policy

96 Jinzhai Road Hefei

Anhui 230026 PR China

Yu Lu

ly-papers@ 163.com

Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital
401 Room 43 Building

99 Guoquan Road

Shanghai 200433 China

Renan Jia

jxjxj2005@ 163.com

Nanchang University

‘ience and Engineering Dept
st Nanjing Road

330047 Nanchang Jiangxi China

Cuixia Wang

newangcx@ sina.com

Jiangxi Univ of Finance & Economics
School of Information Technology
Fenglin Road

Nanchang Jiangxi 330013 China

Xiaojing Jia

jx_jx1@ 163.com

Central University of Finance and Econ
MBA Education Center

39 Xueyuan South Road

100081 Haidian District Beijing China

Nitin R. Joglekar
joglekar@ bu.edu

Boston University

School of Management

595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston MA 02215 USA

Paulo S. Figueiredo

paulof@ bu.edu

Boston University

School of Mgt Operations Mgt Dept
595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston MA 02215 USA

pay for by patient. This is indeed a disaster in health care system of China. In
this paper, we set up a system dynamics model to demonstrate the deep
mechanism: this is mainly due to medicine price policy; afterwards, a serials
policy is proposed to handle this disaster.

A system dynamics analysis of intensive pig farming
eco-energy system based on the rate variable
fundamental in-tree model

Intensive pig farming in Centre China leads to the centralization of excreta
.Chinese government has allocated lots of funds to construct biogas
engineering for resource utilization of bio-energy in recent years. But
investigation shows most of farms in rural areas discharge the residual
product of anaerobic digestion directly due to the lack of consumers and
funds, which has caused severe environmental pollution, and also endangered
the development of farms themselves. In this paper, we have constructed a
practical pig farming excreta recycle treatment model via a case study of the
Lanpo intensive pig farming ecology system, and have conducted simulations
with the corresponding dominant archetype. The results show that policies of
encouraging more farmers to utilize biofuel, separating anaerobic digester
effluent from irrigating water, developing the winter fallow cropland and the
hilly land and governments’ fund and technology supporting may help shift
the system toward sustainability.

Dynamics of Project Screening in a Product
Development Pipeline

of a product d pipeline involves starting and
steering several promising projects through a sequence of screens known as
stages/gates. Only projects with payoffs above a predetermined threshold
survive each screen. We model a two-stage product development pipeline as
an aging chain with a co-flow. The co-flow structure tracks the number of
projects and the corresponding net present value (NPV) of payoff. Managers
at each stage must decide on capacity utilization, subject to a trade-off
between throughput and value creation rate. Our simulation study mimics a
range of relevant decision scenarios by varying the number of starts, screen
thresholds, and managerial biases while adjusting utilization. Results
illustrate that screening can eliminate the backlog bullwhip effect in the
pipeline. Allied statistical analysis indicates a non-linear relationship between
the number of starts and the value created at end of the pipeline. An increase
in the screening threshold, in either stage, increases the average value of the

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 99

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Klaus John

kd@ john-weltner.de

Chemnitz University of Technology
Reichenhainerstr 39

09107 Chemnitz

Germany

Andrew P. Jones
apjones@ sustainer.org
Sustainability Institute

8 Lynmar Avenue
Asheville NC 28804 USA

Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting

3618 Avalon Court
Voorhees NJ 08043 USA

Joyce Essien

jessien@ sph.emory.edu

Emory University

Rollins School of Public Health
1518 Clifton Road NE

Atlanta GA 30322 USA

Bobby Milstein

bmilstein@ cde.gov

Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
360 Brooks Avenue NE

Atlanta GA 30307 USA

Charles A. Jones
skuk_jones@ yahoo.com

University of Massachusetts Boston
63 Eastland Road

Jamaica Plain MA 02130

USA

100 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

projects but reduces the total value created. We also show that a managerial
bias towards reducing backlog, instead of improving utilization, affects the
average NPV negatively but does not affect the total value created at the end
of the pipeline.

The Ec ics of Bi to-Liquids Fuels

To combat the climate change and for reasons of the security of supply the
European Union and its member states have adopted a strategy to increase the
use of energy from renewable resources until 2020 and beyond. One long run
sub-target of this strategy is to increase the proportion of renewable energy
for fuelling purposes to 20 percent. It is hardly possible to reach this
ambitious objective by using current technology of bio-fuel production. The
paper discusses alternative forms of fuels from renewable energy sources.
This discussion identifies biomass-to-liquid (BtL) fuels as the most

romising way to accomplish the EU target. The evaluation of the future role
of BtL is difficult due to complex and uncertain interdependencies between
several factors of influence. The paper develops the basic structure of a SD-
model to capture the numerous effects and their dynamic feedbacks.

Moving from Insights to Action with the CDC
Diabetes System Model

Since 2003, the Division of Diabetes Translation of the US Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has provided ongoing support for an
SD model that addresses how best to balance interventions to reduce the
present and future health burden of diabetes. The structure and behavior of
this model have evolved, but its results and insights have not changed
fundamentally since we first reported on the model three years ago at ISDC
2004. Yet, considerable effort has gone into various activities these past three
years that are gradually widening the model’s circle of impact. These
activities include trimming model scope, challenging and helping to revise a
key national objective, facing our model critics, doing more extensive
sensitivity tests, conducting an external model review, training model
communicators, calibrating the model for various states within the US, and
piloting model-based learning laboratories. In this poster, we will describe
these activities and reflect on how and why they have (or, perhaps, in some
cases have not) helped move decision-makers toward tangible actions based
on model insights. We will also reflect on how our experiences may inform
other efforts to move from insights to action in the arena of public health,
where the gap between science and policy is often a challenging one to cross.

Mental Models in an Emerging Industry: The
Photovoltaic Industry in Massachusetts

This paper reports on an ongoing model-based field study attempting to
answer the following research questions: What are the mental models of
participants in the photovoltaic industry? How widely are mental models
shared among participants? The mental models of system participants are
important because participants are the people with the greatest knowledge

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jan Juerging

juerging@ is bw.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar

Schloss Siidfliigel $ 202
68131 Mannheim Germany

Martin Kaggwa

mkaggwa@ aide.co.za

Automotive Industry Development Centre
Private Bag X36

0200 Rosslyn

South Africa

Jasper Steyn
jsteyn@ postino.up.ac.za
University of Pretoria

Anastassios Pouris
anastassios.pouris@ up.ac.za
University of Pretoria

R. Divakar Roy Kakollu
krdroy@ hotmail.com

Andhra University

Dept of Mechanical Engineering
Visakhapatnam 530003 AP

India

about the system, because in any policy solution they are the critical actors,
and because it is their decisions and actions from which the behavior of the
system emerges. Fifteen experts have so far been interviewed. The

ki they d was expressed as a set system d models;
these models were characterized and compared. The informants all expressed
dynamic growth as a result of reinforcing feedback processes, but few
perceived of any balancing feedback. Their beliefs indicate successful
policies will have to recognize the difference between global and local
market effects

Engineering Change Orders influencing
manufacturing start-ups

Many companies, especially in high tech industries, are facing shrinking
product life s and i i complex p and product

hi ies. These market ics pressure f facilities to begin
full scale operations at a point when the underlying process technology is still
poorly d.C ies suffer from substantial yield
losses which can dramatically affect the economics of the product, the
production facility, and business. The production ramp-up will be defined as
the time span equal to the difference between ‘time- to- market’ and’ time-
to- volume’. A major goal of innovators is to reduce the ‘time-to-market’,
however they cannot evaluate the effects on the ‘time-to-volume’ When
production is started at a point of low series production readiness a lot of
engineering changes are likely to be detected during the ramp-up phase. This
paper will compare two policies for the management of changes during
production ramp-up.

Formalisation of the South African Automotive
Incentives Using a System Dynamics Approach

We present the formalisation of the South African fiscal automotive
incentives — the Productive Asset Allowance (PAA) and the Import-Export
Complementation (IEC). We estimate model rates of change using 10 year
historical data. Model simulations reveal that while the IEC has a significant
effect on industry trade balance, the role of the PAA is trivial. Further still,
the IEC incentive cannot be maintained in its current form in the long term as
the value of imports it enables to enter the country free of duty tend to total
domestic market size.

Modelling and Analysis of Production System of A
Steel Plant- A System Dynamics Approach

Modeling and Analysis of Production System of A Steel Plant- A System
Dynamics Approach K.R.Divakar Roy Department of Mechanical
Engineering, A.U.College of Engineering (Autonomous) Visakapatnam-530
003 Mail Id: divakarroy@rediff.com, krdi il.com Abstract In the
fast changing economic scenario world over, the economic strength of any

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 101

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Christian Erik Kampmann
cekivs@ chs.dk

Copenhagen Business School

IVS Kilevej14A-B

DK-2000 Frederiksberg

Denmark

Rogelio Oliva

roliva@ tamu.edu

Texas A&M University

Mays Business School

301F Wehner 4217 TAMU.
College Station TX 77843-4217
USA

Kyungmin Kang
kyungmin7@ gmail.com

Hanyang University

17 Haengdang-dong Seongdong-gu
Seoul 133-791

Korea

Moosung Jae

jae@ hanyang.ac.kr
Hanyang University
Dept of Nuclear Eng

17 Haengdang Sungdong
Seoul 133-791 Korea

102 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

company depends on the management’s ability in improving quality, cutting
production costs and providing better customer services to compete
effectively in the global market. Even though every management aims at
improving the productivity, there is a limitation on the part of various
production facilities located in any plant as they cannot be stretched beyond a
point. However, management can exploit the existing facilities to the
maximum extent possible by introducing the latest state of art technology.
Against this backdrop, present production scenario of a local integrated steel
plant is described. The key variables considered for the simulation of steel
plant prod activities are: p of hot metal, liquid steel, prime
blooms, bar mill products and wire rod products over a period of 20 years
from 1994 to2013. The results obtained from the SD modeling are validated.
Further, the model is utilized to explore alternative policies, which have been
compared for their relative effectiveness.

Analytical methods for structural dominance
analysis in system dynamics: An assessment of the
current state of affairs

We provide a review of different approaches to linking model structure to
observed behavior with a particular view towards using models for theory
building. We identify four such approaches, namely the “classical” approach,
the “pathway participation” approach, the “eigenvalue elasticity” approach,
and the “eigenvector” approach, respectively. We outline our assessment of
the strengths and weaknesses of each approach and point to some main
challenges and tasks ahead. We find that the eigenvalue and eigenvector
approaches carry the largest potential but that a more solid theoretical
foundation of the method is required. Once such a foundation is developed, it
will be important to develop intuitive analytical tools that can be of use to a
wider system dynamics audience. Since a “grand unified theory” will never
be possible, all tools will be based on approximations and it is only in their
practical use that we can discover their real value.

Development of radiation risk assessment simulator
using system dynamics methodology

The potential magnitude of radionuclide releases under severe accident
loadings and offsite consequences as well as the overall risk (the product of
accident fr and ) are in this paper. System
dynamics methodology useful for complex systems such as a nuclear power
plant has been applied for representing the time-dependent behavior
(feedback and dependency, etc) and uncertain behavior of complex physical
system. System dynamic model is used to construct the transfer mechanism
of time dep ion. The ti

1 model to Korean has been Pp
in order to assess the radiological consequences following the short-term

d ition of radi ides during severe accidents nuclear power plant. The
results of this study may contribute to identifying the relative importance of
various occurred in analysis, as well as to assessing
risk ion and accident i

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Florian Kapmeier
florian.kapmeier@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
Eschersheimer Landstrasse 223
60320 Frankfurt

Germany

Martin C. Schmalz
martin_schmalz1984@ yahoo.de
Universitat Stuttgart
Allmandring 10A Zi 27
70569 Stuttgart

Germany

Theodor Ackbarow
ackbarow@ mit.edu

MIT

121 Carlton Street
Brookline MA 02446
USA

Evangelos Katsamakas
katsamakas@ fordham.edu

Fordham University

Graduate School of Business

113 West 60th Street GBA 6th floor
New York NY 10023

USA

Nicholas C. Georgantzas
georgantzas@ fordham.edu

Fordham University Business Schools
113 W 60th Street Suite LL 617-D
New York NY 10023-7484

USA

Andjelka Kelic

sly@ mitedu

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA

Elissa Matthews

epmatthews@ alcatel-lucent.com
Bell Laboratories Alcatel-Lucent
Holmdel NJ 07733

USA

Walt Beyeler

webeyel@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800

Albuquerque NM 87185-0451
USA

Happiness - Cracking the Equilibrium State of
People's Well-Being

Ui the isms producing | is not only crucial for
individuals and psychological research but also for management science and
political economy. In this paper, we develop a System Dynamics model to
analyze mechanism creating happiness. It allows a better understanding of
the formerly vaguely proposed connections between external life events and
individual well-being. We propose that it can make a qualitative estimation of
a person's happiness over time as a function of external events. It is widely
accepted in positive psychology that good and bad events temporarily affect
happiness. Yet, individuals quickly adapt back to hedonic neutrality. This is
known as the hedonic treadmill (Brickman and Campbell, 1971), the dynamic
equilibrium theory, or set point theory (Headey, 2005). We model a hedonic
treadmill by assuming that people's expectations and aspiration levels adapt
to the actual stock levels of happiness drivers, such as income, health, and
social networks. Policy i learn how well-intended policies to
increase happiness only succeed short-term.

Open source software development: A systems
dynamics model

Evidence suggests that only a small percentage of open source development
(OSSD) projects are active, have significant participation, or have delivered
operational software. We develop a system dynamics based simulation model
to analyze the dynamics of open source project participation process and
software development process. We show that the complex interaction
between participation and development processes affects crucially success or
failure.

Telecommunications Operations Resiliency: Labor
Shortages and the Voice Network

Models of the voice telecommunications infrastructure have focused on the
availability of the network during a disruption without accounting for the
workforce necessary to provide repair and recovery functions for that
network. This paper describes a system dynamics model of the maintenance
operations of the voice telecommunications infrastructure and explores the
effects of large and prolonged worker absence on the ability to keep the
infrastructure operating. Analysis shows that the voice telecommunications
infrastructure is highly resilient to the loss of a large portion of its workforce.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 103

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Saul Kidde

saulkidde@ yahoo.com
Makerere University

Faculty of Computing and IT
PO Box 7062

Kampala Uganda

Ddembe W. Williams

d.williams@ cit.mak.ac.ug

Makerere University

Faculty of Computing & Information Tec
PO Box 7062

Kampala Uganda

Hyunjung Kim

hk8459@ albany.edu

University at Albany

11 South Lake Avenue Apt 110
Albany NY 12203

USA

Hyun-Shil Kim
kimhs@ kepri.re.kr
KEPRI

Yuseong-ku

Daejeon

Korea

104 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Mapping Standard HIV Disease Surrogate Markers
to Alternatives ones: A System Dynamics Approach

Use of systems d. hodology in ing HIV/AIDS disease
progression is not very new, however use of a triangulation of methodologies
in form of the Dynamic Synthesis Methodology (DSM) to model the
relationship between surrogate markers for monitoring HIV/AIDS disease
progression is entirely new. A triangulation of methodologies called DSM
combining System Dynamics and Case study methodologies was used to
establish the relationships of HIV/AIDS surrogate markers so as to arrive at
an appropriate model for monitoring the HIV/AIDS disease progression for a
resource limited setting. The problem was initially analysed in its natural
form to arrive at appropriate reference modes followed by simulation
experiments that were used to map values of Plasma CD4 cell count onto
those of Total Lympl count and Hi lobin, and HIV viral load onto
CD8CD38 density representing the same disease state. The paper makes
useful contributions in revealing salient insights that can be used to develop
tools using alternative HIV/AIDS surrogate markers for cheaply monitoring
HIV/AIDS disease progression in a resource limited setting.

In Search of a Mental-Model-Like Concept for
Group Level Modeling

In system dynamics, we use the term “mental model” to describe one’s
perceived structure of system. We care about mental model, because it is
what we attempt to describe, understand, and improve using computer
simulation models. But if we are developing our simulation models from a
group of individuals, can we still call what we are trying to study a mental
model? This paper attempts to define the concept parallel to mental model
that can be applied to group environment. In order to discover a group-level
mental-model-like concept that is grounded in the established literature, this
study surveys various terminologies and definitions used in the literature to
describe the similar concepts. The survey reveals that there are subtle
differences among the concepts discussed, and the conceptual differences are
highlighted by using location and form of the processor as criteria. This
finding leads to an insight that what system dynamics modelers try to
understand, represent, and improve in group intervention processes is not one
single concept. Depending on data collection and integration methods, the
concept can vary in terms of location and form.

The Effects of the New Capacity Investment
Behavior in the Korea Wholesale Electricity
Market
Generation facilities in Korea have been allocated to six firms as a part of

‘ing and there is a petitive bidding in the wholesale market,
albeit strictly on a cost basis. And Korean government has developed "Basic

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Namsung Ahn

nsahn@ kepri.re.kr

Korea Electric Power Research Inst
106-16 Munji-Dong Yusung-Gu
305-380 Dae Jeon City

Korea

Jaekook Yu

yujk72@ naver.com

Systemix Co Ltd

915 Character Green Vill

395-73 Sindaebang-dong Dongjak-Gu
156-010 Seoul Korea

Yong-Beum Yoon
ybyoon@ kepri.re.kr
KEPRI

Daejeon

Korea

Sang-Joon Kim
skgkrtod@ freechal.com
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
30 Elbride St Apt 2

Worcester MA 10609

USA

Mirjana Kljajic Borstnar
mirjana kjajic@ fov.uni-mb si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a

4000 Kranj

Slovenia

Plan of Long Term Electricity Supply & Demand" in order to secure resource
adequacy. Addition of new generation capacities has controlled by this plan.
However, if the restructuring will be plete done, i i
have no obligation to invest if their profitability is not guaranteed. Many
experts are arguing that government intervention is still necessary to avoid
the price spike in the wholesale market. In this study, simulations for two
scenarios were conducted to see whether competition market can help to
stabilize the wholesale price in Korean market. The simulation results show
that government intervention can prevent the price spike. However, the
wholesale price in the competition market turns out to be lower than that in
the regulated market due to the more new investment. However, this model
has many limitations. First of all, this model assumed that only gas power
plants can respond the market price.

When Cognitive Institution Collapses: A Case of
“Master Kim” through a System Dynamics Model
on the Action-Driven Process

This study illustrates how minor social norms, which have even negative
meaning in organizations, might be able to be dominant by the action-driven
sensemaking process. Based on the Weick(1995)’s argument of the action-
driven sensemaking process, a system dynamics model is constructed. To
examine the properties of the sensemaking process, the system dynamics
model built is applied to the case of a Korean maverick named “Master Kim”
on cyber pornography. The analytical application shows that the strange
epiphany involved in the case of Master Kim can be explained by the
dynamic relationship between dominant social norms and deviate social
norms. It means that norms, beliefs, and traditions can be collapsed by other
cognitive institutions through as social interactions, such as the action-driven
sensemaking process, particularly exchanging feedback comments on the hot
issues on internet. Moreover, we have to notice that the evolution of
cognitive institution could not be emerged unless the formal institution which
facilitates the sensemaking process, such as the service of news comments on
internet were established. Therefore, this study can be furthered in
investigating not only practical implications to strategically make desired
breakthroughs in our organizations, but also theoretical insights in the
perspective of new institutionalism.

A Model of Group Learning Supported by
Simulation Experiment

This paper addresses the influence of individual and group information
feedback on a decision process supported by the application of system
dynamics model. For this purpose we have conducted the four-group

Solomon experiment under following conditions: al) determination of

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 105

Parallel and Poster S

Miroljub Kljajié
miroljub.kijajic@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a

SI-4000 Kranj

Slovenia

Andrej Skraba
andrej.skraba@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor
Kidriceva Cesta 34
SI-4000 Kranj

Slovenia

Davorin Kofjac
davorin.kofjac@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Science
Kidriceva 55a

4000 Kranj

Slovenia

Andrey I. Koblov
akoblov@ suct.ru

South-Ural State University
Applied Mathematics Dept
Lenina avenue 76
Chelyabinsk 454080
Russia

Vladimir I. Shiryaev
vis@ suctru
Uralsviazinform
Moskovskaya Street 11
620014 Ekaterinburg
Russia

Rudolf Kulhavy

kulhavy@ utia.cas.cz

Academy of Sciences of the Czech Rep
Inst of Info Theory and Automation
Pod vodarenskou vezi 4

18200 Prague Czech Republic

106 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

strategy with application of the system dynamics (SD) model without group
interaction with pretest, a2) determination of strategy with application of the
SD model and group information feedback with pretest, a3) determination of
strategy with application of SD model without pretest, and a4) strategy
determination with application of SD model and group information feedback
without pretest. The observed variables were the criteria function values and
frequency of si ion runs. The hypothesis that si ion model
application and group feedback information positively influence the
convergence of the decision process and contribute to faster decision-making
was confirmed. A model of learning during the decision-making process was
developed.

Firm Behavior Optimal Control on Mobile Service
Market

Paper present a system dynamics approach for modeling mobile service

petitive market and fc ing market di . The model includes
dynamic competition between operators. Pricing policy, service quality,
subscriber base, potential subscribers, marketing, etc influence their number
of subscribers. The task of defining the market share carrying capacity to
forecast sales is described. The method for the saturation level identification
is considered and the optimal control problem is formulated and solved.
Actual data from several regions of Russia are used in this paper.

Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic System Dynamics

The paper deals with the system dynamics modeling of a stochastic behavior.
The starting point is replacing the traditional system dynamics model with a
discrete-time stochastic dynamic model in which state variables are measured
indirectly, through noisy and incomplete measurements. The state variables
and possible unknown parameters in such a model can be systematically
estimated from the available measurements using the Bayesian paradigm.
Closed-form solutions exist only for few special cases, such as a linear
normal model with known otherwise numerical app S
are required. The paper suggests a particle filter algorithm as a particularly
appealing approximation that preserves much of the intuitive workings of
system dynamics. A practical example illustrates both the stochastic
modeling process and the approximate Bayesian analysis.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Martin H. Kune

martin kunc@ uai.cl

Universidad Adolfo Ibafiez

Carlos Silva Vildosola 9580 Casa L
786-0130 La Reina Santiago

Chile

Nathalie Katrina Laidler-

Kylander
nathalielaidler_kylander@ tufts.edu
Tufts University

Fletcher School

160 Packard Avenue

Medford MA 02155 USA

Bernard Simonin
bernard.simonin@ tufts.edu
Tufts University

Fletcher School

160 Packard Avenue
Medford MA 02155 USA

David C. Lane

d.clane@ Ise.ac.uk

London School of Economics & Poli Sci

Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
UK

To Cluster or Not to Cluster: A Simulation Study of
Managerial Practices for Innovating in SMEs

During the last two decades a strong line of research has emerged in

research and poli ” agenda: the relationship between
firms and clusters. One of the several reasons explaining the increased
interest in clusters is the positive association between networks within
geographical boundaries and knowledge diffusion. However, there is a strong
assumption in this reasoning: clustered firms have enough capabilities to
transform local interaction, which has to be also rich in information, into
valuable knowledge to improve its performance. What will happen if firms in
the cluster lack of skills to absorb information? What will happen if clustered
firms do not have rich interactions? This paper aims to show the benefits and
trade-offs existing for a Small and Medium Enterprises when at the moment
of start an internati ion process need to decide either to
emphasize the interfim interactions generated inside a cluster or to follow a
standalone process without clustering.

Modeling Brand Equity in International Nonprofit
Organizations: A System Dynamics Approach

While nonprofit organizations and their brands are growing in importance
and stature, these organizations display surprisingly limited brand
management activities. This is partly due to the fact that no explicit brand
equity models exist specifically for nonprofit organizations. The aim of this
research is to build a formal model of brand equity for international nonprofit
organizations engaged in ad and relief work, using a
combination of a system dynamics approach and grounded theory
development. In doing so, we hope to contribute to the system dynamics
literature by illustrating the step-by-step process of building a model from
actual case studies rather than the traditional approach of literature review.
Based on in-depth field work in three organizations (Care, Oxfam, and World
Vision), two waves of focus groups with 18 brand managers led to the
derivation and validation of a formal brand equity model. At the heart of this
model are four core variables (Consistency, Focus, Trust, and Partnerships)
and their associated causal loops. As such, this research constitutes a
significant attempt to advance our understanding of brand equity in
nonprofits through modeling, and to demonstrate the effective use of system
dynamics in areas of marketing that have traditionally not considered this
methodological approach.

Formal Theory Building for the Avalanche Game:
Explaining surprising behaviour using geometrical
& human behavioural effects

In ‘Avalanche’ a rod is lowered to the ground, team members staying in

contact throughout. Normally the task is easy. However, with larger group
sizes counter-intuitive behaviours appear, including the object’s ascending. A

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 107

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Bill Lawless
lawlessw@ mail.paine.edu
Paine College

1235 15th Street
Augusta GA 30901-3182
USA

Reda M. Lebcir

mr lebeir@ herts.ac.uk

Hertfordshire University

Business School De Havilland Campus
College Lane

Hatfield Herts AL10 9AB UK

Rifat A. Atun

ratun@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Tanaka Business School
South Kensington Campus
London SW7 2AZ UK

Richard Coker

richard.coker@ Ishtm.ac.uk

London Schl of Hygiene & Tropical Med
Keppel Street

London WC1E 7HT

UK

108 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

formal theory for the geometric element and other human behaviour effects
gives insight into the behaviours. Each player has two balancing loops, one
involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players
these loops interact and these can allow intermittent dominance by
reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever
increasing goal. Analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which
the system is able to move downwards. An analogy is drawn between the co-
operative behaviour required in this system and Prisoners’ Dilemma
situations. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system’s modes
and their causes. Reflections on the benefits of formal theory building close
the paper.

An evolvable model of organizations: A bistable or
quantum approach

A nonlinear approach to game theory has been designed to resolve two of its
major problems: The arbitrariness of valuing cooperation greater than
competition in determining social welfare; and the lack of interdependent
uncertainty. The approach is to develop quantum or bistable agents and
relationships. The quantum approach means that agents in relationships are
more likely to be found in bistable states that correspond to their observation-
action or energy-time levels; e.g., the more complex, competitive, or
conflictual the state, the greater the energy required but also the less time
available to enact an action. In our view, games are initialized, evolved to a
state that solves a target problem, then measured, consequently creating a
measurement problem. In past research, we have resolved the measurement
problem. The measurement problem led to the development of metrics that
have been applied to organizations in the field (we briefly illustrate an
application to military Medical Department Research Centers). In this paper,
we focus on modeling control in bistable close and market relationships to
produce evolvable systems.

System Dynamics modelling for highly active
antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and multi drug
resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB) treatm

The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of coverage with highly active
antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and multi drug resistant tuberculosis cure
rates in settings of explosive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)
epidemics and high MDRTB levels. A System Dynamics model was built
and simulated over a 10-year period and scenarios regarding different levels
of HAART coverage and MDRTB cure rates were tested. The results indicate
that increasing HAART coverage reduces cumulative deaths for all levels of
MDRTB cure rate. Increasing MDRTB cure rates is likely to result in only a
reduction in cumulative deaths from tuberculosis of between 1% and 13%
depending on levels of HAART coverage. HAART coverage in the order of
75% or higher is required to substantially reduce deaths from tuberculosis. If
high coverage with HAART is allied to high MDRTB cure rates this may
result in a reduction of approximately 60% of cumulative deaths.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Rene LeClaire

1il@ lanl. gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663

Los Alamos NM 87545

USA

Donatella Pasqualini
dondy@lanl.gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
EES 9 Mail Stop D452

Los Alamos NM 87544

USA

Alisa Bandlow

abandlo@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 Mail Stop 1138
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA

Mary Ewers
mewers@lanl.gov
Los Alamos National Laboratory

D-4 Infrastructure & Energy Analysis
Decision Applications Division MS K557

Los Alamos NM 87545

Jeanne Fair

jmfair@ lanl. gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663

Los Alamos NM 87545

USA

Gary B. Hirsch

gbhirsch@ comcast.net

Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road

Wayland MA 01778

USA

Man-Hyung Lee

manlee@ cbnu.ac.kr

Chungbuk National University
Dept of Urban Planning and Eng
12 Kaeshin-Dong Heungduck-Ku
Cheongju 361-763

Korea

Nam Hee Choi
drnhchoi@ cjnu.ac.kr
Chungju National University

Department of Public Administration
123 Geomdan-ri Iryu-myeon Chungju-shi

Chungbuk 380-702 Republic of
Korea

A Prototype Simulator for Infrastructure
Protection: An Application to Decision Support for
Controlling Disease Outbreaks

The Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIPDSS)
project has developed a risk-informed decision support system that provides
insights for making critical infrastructure protection decisions by considering
many critical inff and their d ies. Since program
inception the project has demonstrated how the CIPDSS can assist decision
makers in making informed choices by functionally representing key critical

fi with their i :pendencies, and computing human health &
safety and economic impacts. The method of delivery to date has involved
the conduct of analysis by the project developers and delivery of the results
in the form of reports, often supplemented with face to face interactions with
sponsors and decisions makers. This approach benefits from having the
analysis conducted by the developers who best understand the underlying
models and their limitations. However, this mode of delivery can be said to
live more distant from those who might best benefit from being exposed to
the analysis and the inherent trade-offs therein. This paper describes the
development of a desktop simulation designed to help bridge this gap
between the CIPDSS analysis and decisions makers. To illustrate the utility
of this approach, an application focused on controlling infectious disease
outbreaks, such as Pandemic Influenza, has been implemented.

NIMBY Dynamics: Location Policy of Crematory
Facilities in Korea

The purpose of this study is to find what factors are directly related to the
location of a NIMBY (Not in my backyard) facilities. Using causal loops and
stock-flow models derived from System Dynamics (SD) approaches, it
focuses on Cheongju crematory location project in Korea. After a series of
simulation works, the research finds that the unilateral tactics handled by the
public unit have aggravated the public project delay as the negative
externalities originated from the adjacent location of NIMBY facilities have
exerted significant influence on the dynamic perceptions of major stake-
holders. We observe that the proposed alternative negotiation-based models
produce higher level of planning performance than the existing approaches in
relatively a shorter period. Even though the former may require more human
and material resources from the very beginning stage, as they have to deal

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 109

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Tsuey-Ping Lee

tping@ thu.edu.tw

Tunghai University

Dept of Public Management and Policy
181 Taichung-kang Rd Sec 3

407 Taichung Taiwan ROC

Yen-Chiang Thomas Lee
924010006@ student.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University

4F No 196-1 Nan-Fu St Fong-San City
Kaohsiung 830

Taiwan

Showing H. Young
young@ cm.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University

with diverse grievances raised by neighboring residents, most of them would
be geared toward strengthening reinforcing loops within the complex conflict
structure. These results imply that the proposed negotiation approach to deal

with public location projects would enhance mutual agreement among major
stake-holders, upgrading the overall quality of public project management.

Using Systems Thinking to Improve Organizational
Learning in the Public Sector : Perspective of
Public Officials

This study examines how public officials who have completed a one semester
two-credit systems thinking graduate course consider how systems thinking
training affect their way of thinking and daily administration behavior.
Additionally, this study also focuses on how these public officials perceive
the barriers to adopting systems thinking for the improvement of
organizational learning in the public sector. This study employs a self-
evaluated survey as the research method. The research results demonstrate
that, after finishing the systems thinking course, questionnaire respondents
request more from leaders to clarify organizational goals and to provide
incentives for members to bring up i ive ideas. Mi hile, resp
believed that they i ication and important more
than before taking the course. However, respondents appeared not to highly
value their own role in achieving organizational goals, and to doubt their own
willingness to incorporate new ideas into daily routines. Additionally, public
officials believe that organizational leaders lack concepts and practice of
systems thinking, and public organizational inertia, thus leading to the failure
of systems thinking practice to improve organizational learning. This study
provides suggestions for systems thinking course design based on the survey
results.

Crisis as the Touchstone of Trust: The Story
between the Enterprise and Banks

Much current work in social sciences seeks to understand the role and
development of trust in the network of modern society. However, the
development process of the trust remains unclear. To explore the dynamic
process of crisis and trust, this paper primarily examines on the role that trust
plays in the financial manager’s network relation, and the influence of its

ion with the banks. This study focuses on a state-owned enterprise in

of Business
PO Box 59-35
Kaohsiung Taiwan

110 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Taiwan that suffered from financial crisis and downsizing. Systems thinking
combined with narrative inquiry are adopted to investigate the dynamic
change of relationship between the enterprise and banks before and after
crisis. The findings show that trust becomes considerably important when an
organization suffers from a financial crisis, and the relation between the
organization and banks tends to change after the crisis. Finally, an integrative
model for crisis and trust is proposed to improve Webb’s model and
contributes to interpret the dynamic relation of crisis and trust. Keyword:
Social Network, Trust, Crisis, Narrative Inquiry, Systems Thinking.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Anson Kin Tat Li

akt.li@ auckland.ac.nz

University of Auckland

PO Box 105465 Auckland Central
Auckland

New Zealand

Kambiz E. Maani
kmaani@auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
Private Bag 92019

1-11 Short Street Room 717
Auckland New Zealand

Chao-Yueh Liu
chaoyueh.liu@ gmail.com
University at Albany
14 Niblock Ct FI 2
Albany NY 12206
USA

Chun-Shuo Chen
cc7842@ albany.edu
University at Albany
840 Washington Ave FI 1
Albany NY 12203

USA

Min Liu

jaminliu@ gmx.de

University of Italian Switzerland
Corso Elvezia 22

6900 Lugano

Switzerland

Pitfalls in Decision-Making in Complex Systems

Experiential research, as well as three decades of working with managers
across diverse cultures has revealed an unmistakable pattern of
counterproductive decision-making by managers. In general, managers
exhibit a tendency to “over-intervene” in the systems they are responsible for.
This indicates an inad ppreciation and ding of complexity
and S, i f ions and ii ility in their
organizations. Sterman (1989, 2000) and Maani et al (2004) have studied
these phenomena in simulated and experimental environments respectively.
Research results, as well as causal observations, highlight a number of mental
models and behaviours undertaken by managers in dealing with complex
issues. The key research question of this study: “Why managerial
interventions in complex organizations often produce counterintuitive
failures?” has led to seven propositions investigated in this research.
Empirical results from 224 experiments, using two pre-tested microworlds,
inform and support our propositions. Research subjects comprise practicing
managers, MBA and other graduate students. The findings show congruence
with related research, including the multi-year longitudinal study by Collins
(2001). The findings have important implications for complex decision-
making, leadership and organizational interventions and transformation.

A System Dynamics Model of Bilateral Intellectual
Property Negotiations

Copyright piracy and other intellectual property right (IPR) infringements in
developing countries have become serious problems for many developed
countries. Intellectual property (IP)-oriented industries in developed countries
fear that piracy will impact their revenues. In the U.S., the IP industry usually
lobbies the government to pressure countries with serious piracy problems to
protect IP. Though the US trade representative takes an aggressive
negotiating stance in this area, the U.S. IP industry and government never
seem satisfied with the results. This paper builds a system dynamics model to
gain insight into the interactions involving the IPR issue between the U.S.
government, the U.S. IP industry, China’s government, and China’s local
governments. Through this model, the historical behaviors between the U.S.
and China will be examined to show that U.S. pressures do improve China’s
IP protection while other factors weaken China’s effort to protect IP.

Private-Public Cycle: Testing Hirschman's Theory
of Shifting Involvements with a Formal Model
Why do societies oscillate, on a roughly twenty-year cycle, between modes

of private acquisitiveness and public spiritedness? Albert O. Hirschman
argues that disappointment is the main cause explaining why societies never

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 111

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Cécile Emery

cecile.emery@ lu.unisi.ch
University of Italian Switzerland
Via G Buffi 13

6900 Lugano

Switzerland

Luis Lépez

luis.lopez@ incae.edu

INCAE Graduate School of Business
PO Box 960-4050

Alajuela 4050 Costa Rica

Albert Sufié

albertsune@ upc.edu

Technical University of Catalonia
ETSEIAT C Colom 11

08222 Terrassa Spain

David W. Lounsbury

lounsbud@ mskec.org

Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
Dept of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sci
641 Lexington Ave 7th Floor

New York NY 10022

USA

Ralph L. Levine
leviner@ msu.edu

Michigan State University
CARRS Dept

East Lansing MI 48824

Luis F. Luna-Reyes
luisf_luna@ udlap.mx

Universidad de las Americas Puebla
Casa 5D Zona D

Santa Catarina Martir

Cholula Puebla 72820

Mexico

112 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

stop shifting from an ideology promoting private interests to another
philosophy which endorses public action and vice versa. The aims of this
paper are to reconstruct Hirschman’s reasoning using a System Dynamics
approach and to build a simul: model ref the

societies experiment between private and public interests. Our simulation
results reproduce the behaviour implied by Hirschman, therefore showing
evidence of the dynamic consistency of his argumentation. Furthermore, an
example taken for a novel and empirical data, which represents the evolution
of turn-out in the US, have been used to gain deeper support of our findings.
Further research using this model is promising.

Turnover-induced Forgetting

A firm’s productivity may fall despite continued accumulation of output. We
show such productivity decline by means of an in-depth case study with
detailed longitudinal data. Hiring of inexperienced labor disrupts the firm’s
knowledge stock by bringing in workers with less than average experience.
Thus, the firm’s knowledge becomes diluted through labor-turnover induced
organizational forgetting.

Episode-of-Care Analysis and Tobacco Treatment
in Primary Care Settings

Economists and health services researchers have long been faced with the
problem of how to effectively unitize and assess cost and quality of health
care delivery across diverse practice settings. One such approach is episode-
of-care analysis, first theorized and applied by Hornbrook and his colleagues
in the mid-1980s. A health care episode is defined as a series of health-
related events with a beginning, an end, and a course, all related to a given
health problem that exists over a specific time period (i.e., time horizon). The
concept of a health care episode lends itself to system dynamics analysis of
the p as well as the of evi ‘based medical care. In our
research we have adapted an episode-of-care framework to the topic of
treating tobacco use and dependence. In particular, we have defined four
types of episodes, namely smoking episodes, quitting episodes, illness
episodes, and treatment episodes, which we are studying in relationship to
two general goals: Motivating patients who currently use tobacco to quit and,
for those who quit, preventing their relapse. We review the literature on
episode-of-care analysis and discuss alternative ways to model the dynamics
of tobacco treatment at the level of the primary care practice.

Towards a Theory of Interorganizational
Collaboration: Generic Structures of Cross-
Boundary Requirements Analysis
In this paper, we present a series of causal maps that constitute an initial

effort in the creation of a generic theory of interorganizational cross-
boundary requirements analysis. Such causal structures are the result of a

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
315A Milne Hall

135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA

Kathleen Lusk Brooke

centerforstudyofsuccess@ post harvard.edu

Center for the Study of Success
PO Box 331

West Stockbridge MA 02166-0331

USA

Frank P. Davidson
151 Main Street

Concord MA 01742-2436
USA

David A. Lyell

david lyell@ futureechoes.com.au
University of New South Wales
14/108 High Street

Mascot NSW 2020

Australia

Geoff McDonnell
gmcdonne@ bigpond.net.au
Adaptive Care Systems
382 Bronte Road
Bronte NSW 2024
Australia

simulation-based study in which we explored the interactions and social

P iated with the of trust and knowledge sharing in
the devel of an interor information system in New York
State: the Homeless Information Management System (HIMS). The paper
includes the main theoretical and practical implications of the modeling and
simulation work, as well as discussion of some paths to continue the
exploration of collaboration in this specific context. The causal maps are
organized around three themes that emerged during the modeling process.
The first theme is related to trust development, and its recursive interactions
with knowledge sharing and learning. The second theme is related to the
importance of achi by establishing a trusting
environment as opposed to the use of authority or coercive mechani:
last theme is i with the ding of fi
social process of learning and knowledge transfer.

Building the World: System Dynamics and
Macroengineering

Humans are builders -- we make structures to span rivers, to craft canals, to
establish cities. Throughout history, civilizations have created iconic
monuments of such immense scale, requiring tremendous resources, that they
might have been thought impossible. From the Taj Mahal to the Suez Canal,
from Solomon's Temple to the Channel Tunnel, these feats of
macroengineering are a testament to the creativity and foresight of architects,
engineers, governmental leaders, lawyers, bankers, and diplomats. The
macroengineering projects in this presentation can be analyzed through the
methodology of system dynamics. In this PowerPoint Poster, Frank P.
Davidson and Kathleen Lusk Brooke will present an overview of their book,
"Building the World: An Encyclopedia of the Great Engineering Projects in
History" regarded by Dr. Jay W. Forrester as "amazing and impressive" and
by Dr. David H. Marks, Director of MIT's Laboratory for Energy and the
Environment, as "a tribute to the role of large-scale infrastructure in the
evolution of the world's societies." This Poster Presentation will announce a
"Building the World Prize" for the best system dynamics essay on plausible
approaches to help improve the world's future. For more information, please
visit: www.buildingtheworld.com.

A Dynamic Balanced Scorecard for Managing
Health Systems Performance

Health system performance management is a dynamically complex problem,
affected by a large number of factors which interact to produce health
outcomes over time. A brief review of current health system performance
assessment instruments, including the balanced scorecard, demonstrates only
a limited ability to deal with the dynamic complexity of this problem. These
are limitations that can be overcome with the incorporation of system
dynamics methods. We propose a dynamic balanced scorecard for managing
regional health system performance in New South Wales, Australia. Central
to this scorecard will be an understanding of the dynamic interactions of cost,
quality and access and how these affect population health.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 113

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Debra A. Lyneis
lyneisd@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
PO Box 121

215 Landgrove Road
Weston VT 05161 USA

James M. Lyneis

jmlyneis@ verizon.net

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
PO Box 121

215 Landgrove Road

Weston VT 05161 USA

John Lyneis

jlyneis@ mit.edu

MIT

1010 Massachusetts Avenue Apt 56
Cambridge MA 02138 USA

Matthew Forrester
matthew_forrester@ sloan.mitedu
Fortera Systems Inc

2647 Sharondale Circle
Atlanta GA 30305 USA

Joe Chiaojen Hsueh

jochsueh@ mitedu

MIT, Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-358A
Cambridge MA 02142 USA

John Sterman

jsterman@ mitedu

MIT Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142 USA

Roderick H. MacDonald
rod@ isdps.org

Initiative for SD in the Public Sector
300 G Milne Hall

University at Albany

Albany NY 12222

USA

Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh
mohammad@ attunegroup.com

Attune Group Inc

16 Regina Court Suite 1

Delmar NY 12054

USA

114 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Two Loops, Three Loops, Four Loops: Pedagogic
Issues in Explaining Epidemic Dynamics

How many feedback loops, and of what type, control the behavior of an
epidemic? This seemingly simple question arose on trying to relate the
behavior of the epidemic model widely used in K-12 system dynamics to its
three-loop feedback structure. A search of the literature discovered two-,
three-, and four-loop versions of the basic epidemic model in introductory
system dynamics materials. How can the same behavior be explained with
such different feedback structures? Can they all be right? This paper will
analyze the three basic model structures and discuss implications for system
dynamics pedagogy.

Extending the Industry Evolution Management
Flight Simulators: Golf and Solar Industries

The Industry Evolution M Flight (MEFS) was p

at the MIT Sloan School of Management for use in the MBA Strategic
Management curriculum. As described in the proceedings of the 2006 System
Dynamics Conference, this MFS includes a generic firm and industry
structure that is then adapted to various industries that each emphasize
different strategic environments. Earlier applications include the Salt industry
and the Video Game console industry. Here, we summarize this work and
present two new applications, both tested in a spring 2007 MBA elective
course. The first is a MFS of the premium golf club industry. This simulator
allows students to experience typical boom and bust dynamics following the
introduction of a new consumer durable and experiment with strategies
related to price, R&D and marketing. The second new application is a MFS
of the Solar Panel industry. In addition to exposing students to the potential
of this emerging and important industry, this MFS gives students the
opportunity to experience learning curve dynamics for a new technology and
understand the importance of knowledge spillovers towards their choice of
strategy.

Criminal Justice Simulation Model (CJSIM):
Technology and the Flow of Criminals in the
Criminal Justice Syste

This paper examines what would happen in the New York’s criminal justice
system if two primary changes were made. Those changes are an exogenous
doubling of the number of new criminals entering the system (new people
becoming criminals) and a doubling of the productivity of police officers.
These inputs were selected because they represent changes on the front or
upstream end of the criminal justice system, and the effects of these changes
on the whole system could be observed. Changes in police capacity, number
of people in prison and the total number of active criminals are examined to
the implications that ical imp that increase
police productivity may have on other parts of the criminal justice system.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Leonard A. Malezynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories
1515 Eubank SE

Albuquerque NM 87123-1350
USA

Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
imartinez@ albany.edu

Argonne National Laboratory

9700 S Cass Ave Bldg 900 DIS
Argonne IL 60439

USA

David L. Sallach

sallach@ anl.gov

Argonne National Laboratory
9700 South Cass Avenue
Argonne IL 60439

USA

Mark J. Bragen

bragen@ anl.gov

Argonne National Laboratory
9700 South Cass Avenue
Argonne IL 60439

USA

Prakash R. Thimmapuram
prakash@ anl.gov

Argonne National Laboratory
9700 South Cass Avenue
Argonne IL 60439

USA

Understanding Carbon Sequestration: A Systems
Analysis Tool

A team of collaborators within the Southwest Regional Partnership (SWP) on
Carbon Sequestration developed an interactive software tool to help facilitate
discussions involving the science, engineering, economic and policy
iderations for a carbon pilot project. This paper

the A model, and highl the ‘String of
Pearls’ network algorithm used to develop a potential carbon dioxide (CO2)
transportation network in sequence with existing infrastructure and speaks to
the use of system dynamics in a government setting. The ‘String of Pearls’
model fi k can assess ical sink choices ing to their
distance from the point source (e.g., power plants), relative size (to maintain
a useful fill lifetime for a project under consideration), relative distance from
existing CO2 transportation infrastructure such as pipelines, and other salient
project attributes. The results indicate that the cost to capture CO2 at point
sources is the largest component of the overall CO2 capture, transportation
and storage system’s initial cost estimate. The ‘String of Pearls’ Integrated
Assessment model can help planners assess these issues using an integrated,
systems view when deciding where to develop future carbon sequestration
pilot projects. The modeling process and the model itself are described in this
analysis.

Design for a Multi-Layer Model of Financial
Stability: Exploring the Integration of System
Dynamics and Agent-based Models

for ing of complex systems with policy-
oriented implications sometimes requires that several different levels of
aggregation be considered and formally included. In the system dynamics
tradition, different levels of aggregation are not normally combined, leaving
certain classes of p outside of the traditi use of system d: i
models. Agent-based models can capture a very fine-grained level of detail of
the system under study but lack the ability to parsimoniously and clearly link
behavior to structure. This paper presents a domain in which a combined
approach seems to be adequate. Additionally, two alternatives to dealing with
the problem of integrating data from different levels of aggregation using
system ics and based models are di:

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 115

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
imartinez@ albany.edu

Argonne National Laboratory

9700 S Cass Ave Bldg 900 DIS
Argonne IL 60439 USA

Stephen H. Conrad
shconra@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1138
Albuquerque NM 87185 USA

Andrew Cox

andrew.cox@ dhs.gov

Department of Homeland Security
Transportation Security Administration
601 South 12th Street

Arlington VA 22202 USA

Chris Krahe

chris.krahe@ dhs. gov

Department of Homeland Security
Transportation Security Administration
601 South 12th Street

Arlington VA 22202 USA

Ali Naghi Mashayekhi
mashayekhi@ alum.mitedu

Sharif University of Technology

Grad School of Management and Econ
PO Box 11365-8639 Azadi Avenue
11365 Tehran

Iran

Peter B. Boggs
pboggs@ ta2kg.org

The Asthma 2000 Group
4817 Gilbert Drive
Shreveport LA 71106
USA

Ali Naghi Mashayekhi
mashayekhi@ alum.mit.edu

Sharif University of Technology

Grad School of Management and Econ
PO Box 11365-8639 Azadi Avenue
11365 Tehran Iran

116 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Modeling Aviation Security Processes: A Group
Model Building Approach

The U.S. Transportation Security (TSA) is collat ing with
a team of system dynamics modelers from the national laboratories to build a
model of their security checkp i at US ial airports for
the purpose of proactively identifying high-leverage opportunities for
investment to improve system performance. To elicit a broad range of
expertise and opinions to develop our understanding of the systemic issues
facing TSA as they strive to improve their security checkpoint operations, we
conducted more than 30 interviews with headquarters and field-operations
staff and hosted a 2-day group model building exercise. In this paper, we use
both causal-loop diagrams together with a description of the results of the
group model building exercise to present a rich articulation of the issues
facing TSA in managing their security checkpoints. We also show how the
complex interrelationships among various factors ultimately impact the
effectiveness and efficiency of the aviation security checkpoint.

A System Dynamics Model of Asthma Care

Abstract Although our understanding of asthma and its treatment has grown
far beyond what was known during the 19th century, both the morbidity and
mortality rate from asthma is much higher now than then. In the medical
community this is known as the great asthma paradox. In this paper we
present a system dynamics model to investigate the causes of this paradox.
The model shows how the short-treatments that were not available in the past
cause much of the problem behavior of asthma care today. We show the
system mechanisms that cause short-term treatments to begat more
treatments; that invite those with asthma to become addicted to short-term
treatment; and that show how side effects of short-term treatments deteriorate
asthma conditions. We then introduce the long-term treatment concepts into
the model and examine their impact on asthma care. Through model
simulations we show how a proper combination of the long-term and short-
term treatments can create optimal results. The results from our model are
compatible with clinical results observed by physicians experienced in the
care of people with asthma.

System Dynamics Learning Environment in
Teaching Supply Demand Interactions
The market mechanism works through the interaction between supply and
demand. In economics, this interaction is taught through comparative static

analysis which does not really capture the dynamics involved in the market
place. In this paper, we have developed a series of system dynamics models

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Keyvan Vakili

keyvanv@ gmail.com

Sharif University of Technology
Sth floor No 161 Shahid Akbari St
Seyd Jamaleddine Asadabadi Ave
Tehran Iran

Hamid Foroughi

hamidforoughi@ yahoo.com

Sharif University of Technology
Graduate School of Mgt and Economics
Azadi Avenue

11365 Tehran Iran

Micah McCutchan

Enrique Campos-Nanez
ecamposn@ gwu.edu

George Washington University
1776 G Street NW Suite 161
Washington DC 20052

USA

Marion McGregor

mmegregor@ cmec.ca

Canadian Memorial Chiropractic College
90 Little Rouge Circle

Stouffville ON L4A 0G2

Canada

to represent the dynamics of such interactions. We start with a simple model
which is dynamically richer than the model presented to the students in
classical economics text books. Then we identify the simplified assumptions
made in the simple model and then gradually relax them one by one in the
next models to make the models more realistic. As the assumptions are
relaxed, the dynamic complexity increases and students can gradually get
deeper and richer ding of the d ics of ions between
supply and demand in the market place. We put the whole sequence of the
models on a micro-world to make a learning environment that teaches the
concepts to students through using the environment on a computer in an
interactive ways. We then run some experiences to examine the effectiveness
of the learning environment to develop the capabilities of users to understand
and explain the dynamics of supply and demand in some real world
situations. The experiences show that our learning environment is very
effective.

The Effect of Network Topology in Social Diffusion:
A System Dynamics Approach

Several classical system dynamics models, such as models of disease spread,
and technology adoption, are built under assumption of a homogeneous
population. These assumptions have been recently challenged by recent
results showing that the degree distributions of many social and natural
networks, such as the so-called scale-free networks, exhibit long-tailed
degree distributions. This paper adopts a system dynamics approach to
replicate preferential attachment, one of the network dynamics mechanisms
known to produce power-scale distributions. We then study the diffusion
processes on these networks, e.g. epidemics, product adoptions. We consider
a basic compartment model (Susceptible- Infected) and apply scale free
network topology in place of the random network topology that is
traditionally assumed. The resulting model is used to assess the effect of the
topology on the diffusion of attributes throughout the network.

Jurisdictional Control of Conservative Spine Care:
Chiropractic versus Medicine

This investigation explores inter-r conflict for juri

control and market share advantage. A System Dynamics model, informed by
theory of inter-professional competition, was created, focusing on a
profession classified as “major” and competitor profession classified as
“minor”. Medicine was chosen as the major player, since efforts to manage
healthcare expenditures have fostered attitudes that support substituting lower
cost alternatives. Chiropractic was chosen as the competitor, due to its
independent status, and its prominence in the CAM field. The jurisdiction of
interest was neck and/or back pain. It was posited that an increase in
academic abstract knowledge or an increase in professional association
membership would benefit the minor player. In addition, it was hypothesized
that an increase in supply of the dominant profession would adversely affect
chiropractic, as would pressure on medicine from external sources such as
health i ion results d that i ing the

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 117

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Douglas McKelvie
douglas.mckelvie@ symmetricsd.co.uk
18 James Street Flat 4

Edinburgh EH15 2DW UK

Savas Hadjipavlou

savas. hadjipavlou@ homeoffice.gsi.gov.uk
Home Office

2nd Floor Fry Building NE Qtr DSPD
2 Marsham Street

London SW1P 4DF UK

David Monk

david. monk@ symmetricsd.co.uk
Symmetric SD Limited

47 Rugby Road

Brighton BNI6EB UK

Samantha Foster
Home Office

2 Marsham Street
London SW1P 4DF UK

Eric F. Wolstenholme
e.wolstenholme@ btinternet.com
Symmetric SD Limited

47 Rugby Road

Brighton BN] 6EB UK

David Todd

david.todd@ symmetricsd.co.uk
Symmetric SD Limited
The Grain Store

127 Gloucester Road
Brighton BN] 4AF UK

Dennis Meadows

lataillede@ aol.com

Laboratory for Interactive Learning
PO Box 844

Durham NH 03824

USA

118 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

ic abstract ki of the minor p: had only a minimal
impact, after an extended delay. No differences were seen by increasing
association membership. Negative effects on the minor profession’s market
share were observed when supply of the dominant player was increased and
when external pressure was intensified. In general, simulation results favored
medicine’s monopoly.

The use of SD methodology to develop services for
the assessment and treatment of high risk serious
offenders in England& Wales

In England and Wales, national government has introduced a range of
policies for dealing with the most dangerous offenders. These include new
sentencing arrangements, new treatment programmes, and enhanced
supervision of those released on licence. Policy makers needed to estimate
the impact of this policy on the prison population and to consider how much
treatment and community supervision capacity would be needed over time.
They worked with a small SD consultancy to develop and build a model
using ithink software, to enable a variety of scenarios to be tested, adopting a
group model building approach. A number of staff received training in SD,
including model building. The paper outlines the policy background, model
structure and examples of scenarios. As well as being a practical application
of SD to a sensitive area of public policy, the project is an example of what
can be achieved within a relatively short intervention.

Dynamics of Growth in the New Hampshire Prison
Population

Although statistics suggest that serious crimes are infrequent and probably
decreasing, the population of inprisioned people in New Hampshire is
growing exponentially. This model shows the dominant loops responsible for
this paradox. From the model we learn that the processes of judgement and
incarceration have reversed the process we normally associate with the prison
system - society creates prisioners in order to fill new prisons rather than
constructing new prisons in order to house the criminal.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Alexandra Medina-Borja

nmedina@ viedu

University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez
Department of Industrial Engineering

PO Box 9043
Mayaguez PR 00681

Kalyan S. Pasupathy
pasupathyk@ missouri.edu
University of Missouri
D of Health

& Info

Uncovering Complex Relationships in System
Dynamics Modeling: Exploring the Use of CHAID
and CART

One of the premises of system dynamics is that the modeler would make
assumptions about variable relationships with enough precision to make the
model useful. A common validation method is to consult with field experts,
but with the advent of the internet, and automated data collection methods,

324 Clark Hall
Columbia MO 65211 USA

Arif Mehmood
amehmood73@ hotmail.com

United Arab Emirates University
College of Engineering

PO Box 17555

Al Ain United Arab Emirates

k is diluted as companies store abundant information without time
to process it. High turnover rates at companies paired with large amounts of
data have reduced the number of "experts." Without experts, companies are
data rich but not necessarily knowledge rich. Customers’ dislikes,
perceptions, intentions, opinions, and service characteristics reside in data
warehouses (e.g. survey data is stored as categorical, nominal, ordinal or
qualitative without further analysis). We present an application of
Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Chi-Square Automatic
Interaction Detection (CHAID) which are known nonparametric predictive
methodologies to uncover/confirm significant variable relationships and build
the equations to feed the model. An illustrative example of CHAID/SEM to
explore restructuring decisions in a large service organization will be briefly
discussed.

Understanding the Dynamics of Causal Factors
related to Excessive Speeding Behavior of the
Drivers

Excessive speeding behavior of the drivers is one of the challenges in the
area of transportation around the world. Excessive speeding is defined as
driving faster than the posted speed limit or driving too fast for the prevailing
traffic and environment conditions. This paper provides a modeling
framework that integrates the dynamic interaction between causal factors
responsible for motivating drivers to adopt excessive speeding behavior. This
modeling framework is developed based on information gathered through
extensive literature review on speed choice behavior of the drivers,
interviews of officials from police department, and interviews of a group of
drivers. The ling fr has been L into a formal
simulation model. The development of simulation model includes heuristic
relationships that need refinements based on empirical evidence. It is
expected that end product of this research would be a fully integrated
decision-support tool that would help in understanding the resistance to
achieving a sustainable reduction in the number of excessive speeding
drivers.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 119

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Arif Mehmood
amehmood73@ hotmail.com

United Arab Emirates University
College of Engineering

PO Box 17555

Al Ain United Arab Emirates

David S. Miller
dsm@ alum.mitedu
MIT

101 Stedman Street
Brookline MA 02446
USA

John Sterman

jsterman@ mitedu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

Application of System Dynamics to Human
Resource M ment of Canadian Naval Reserves

The mission of the Canadian Naval Reserves (NAVRES) is to provide
trained reservists to meet various challenges of its combat and support
elements to enable Canada to meet its objectives in time of peace, crisis or
war. In order to sustain effectively and economically NAVRES has to
manage an optimal number of the trained reservists in meeting their demands.
The responsibilities and tasks of meeting the growing demands of the trained
reservists can be daunting, risky, and costly without the proper knowledge
and tools for evaluating the nature, structure, and potential behavior of the
different components of the NAVRES as they relate to the mission of the
organization. This paper describes a model that assists management of the
NAVRES to deal with the challenges organization is faced with; as well as
plan, manage and drive the future and strategic focus of the organization in
its desired direction. The model estimates the requirements of the trained
reservists at different levels under various scenarios as well as provides a
laboratory environment for the decision makers to test virtually unlimited
number of strategies that would accelerate their learning and help them in
designing robust and effective strategies to successfully manage their
resources strategically.

New Venture Commercialization of Clean Energy
Technologies

Clean energy technol lower harmful emissi iated with the
generation and use of power and many of these technologies have been
shown to be cost effective and to provide significant benefits to adopters.
This paper examines why new ventures founded to commercialize these
technologies have failed to achieve widespread adoption. Based on
interviews with clean energy P 's and other and on
case studies of clean energy technology ventures, a new venture simulation
model was developed that models the cash flow, labor force, market,

petition, and product Pp forap pical clean energy
technology venture. When the model is parameterized to correspond to a
venture that starts with superior technology at an attractive price its behavior
corresponds to the experience of many of the companies interviewed. The
modeled venture takes many years to achieve profitability due to long sales
cycles, limits to market growth, and the time needed to gain experience
producing and selling its products, and therefore has a high probability of
failure. Analysis of the model results in a set of guidelines for what these
ventures, investors, and policy makers should do to increase their odds of
success.

120 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Nathan A. Minami
minamin@ mitedu

US Army

107 Patterson Rd

Hanscom AFB MA 01731 USA

Leticia Soto

Isoto@ sloan.mitedu

US Navy

9742 Maryland Avenue
Norfolk VA 23511 USA

Donna H. Rhodes

rhodes@ mit.edu

MIT

77 Massachusetts Avenue NE20-388
Cambridge MA 02139 USA

Nathan A. Minami
minamin@ mitedu

US Army

107 Patterson Rd
Hanscom AFB MA 01731
USA

Donna H. Rhodes

rhodes@ mitedu

MIT

77 Massachusetts Avenue NE20-388
Cambridge MA 02139

USA

Dennis A. Minnich
dennis.minnich@ i-u.de
McKinsey & Company Inc
Kénigsallee

40027 Diisseldorf
Germany

Frank H. Maier

frank. maier@i-u.de

International University in Germany
International University Campus 1
D-76646 Bruchsal

Germany

Improving the Naval Construction Process Through
Lean Implementation

This study uses systems dynamics modeling to analyze the United States
Navy’s current construction administration process from design to

in order to d process imp , which will
prevent cost overruns, delays, and ultimately a waste of tax payers’ resources.
This study specifically examines the impact of upstream design
implementations on the entire system, and incorporates a number of lean
thinking ideas. It demonstrates the positive effects of increased
constructability efforts and design sharing among engineers, and indicates
that when limited resources exist it is best to focus constructability and
design sharing efforts as early as possible during the upstream process.
Finally, this paper concludes with a number of recommendations for how the
United States Navy’s Civil Engineer Corps and possibly Seabee Construction
Battalions can best implement these ideas.

Network Centric Operations and the Brigade Unit
of Action

The U.S. Army is currently transforming to a more agile and deployable
organization, which is centered largely on the integration of new information
technologies. While most Army leaders report that many of these new
information “tools” such as the Amy Battle Command System (ABCS) give
them an unp level of , others report that the
integration of this new digital technology comes with some unintended
consequences that in some cases actually slows information flow. We studied
the “Brigade Unit of Action” concept with specific emphasis on the
Brigade’s ability to disseminate and process information within and between
command posts, using System Dynamics as a modeling tool to help better
understand the impact of various policy decisions. Our study concluded with
five heuristics that Army leaders should consider when developing the future
command and control architecture for the Brigade Unit of Action.

Responsiveness and Efficiency of Pull-Based and
Push-Based Planning Systems in the High-Tech
Electronics Industry

Planning systems for supply chain management can be designed in different
ways in order to achieve the multiple objectives of supply chain management.
Two of these objectives are responsiveness and efficiency of the system. In
this paper, a System Dynamics simulation model is used to assess the
performance of planning approaches for supply chains in the high-tech
electronics industry on the dimensions of responsiveness and efficiency.
Supply chains in this industry are subject to a number of challenges that

the of these two objectives. The findings suggest
that pull-based planning approaches can be used to achieve high efficiency
and responsiveness, at the expense of higher fluctuations in capacity
utilization upstream in the supply chain.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 121

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Moh d T. Mojtahed:

mohammad@ attunegroup.com
Attune Group Inc
16 Regina Court Suite 1
Delmar NY 12054

SA

Edoardo Mollona
emollona@ cs.unibo it

Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Department of Computer Science
Mura Anteo Zamboni 7

40127 Bologna

Italy

Alessandro Sposito

sposito@ cs.unibo .it

Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Via Murti 29

Bologna 40137

Italy

122 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Do the Parallel Lines Meet? A Comparison between
Pathway Participation Metrics and Eigenvalue
Analysis

The search for tools and techniques aimed at model analysis has gained
momentum in the system dynamics community during the last decade. A
variety of approaches have been developed, modified and applied to replace
or enhance the traditional intuitive-based schemes for ding the
behavior of dynamic models according to its feedback structure. Despite the
diversity of the methods developed for model analysis, recent studies suggest
that there is considerable convergence in the results they produce. The
objective of this paper is to explore some of the similarities and differences
between pathway participation metrics and elasticity analysis that
can potentially explain the reasons for the convergence and divergence in
analysis. In the first part of the paper, we lay out some of the theoretical
differences and similarities in approaches between aspects of pathway
participation metrics and eigenvalue elasticity analysis in order to explain
how they, despite the significant differences in the process of model analysis,
can produce similar and comparable results under certain conditions. The
second part of the paper presents application of pathway participation metrics
in three simple models that have been previously analyzed using the
eigenvalue elasticity approach. The case studies highlight some of the
similarities and differences between the two approaches.

Transaction Costs and Outsourcing Dynamics: A
System Dynamics Approach

, firms are their p Or ing regards not
only peripheral activities but portions of key activities as well. Outsourcing is
a pervasive phenomenon that often overlaps, and interferes with, the strategic
decision to define a firm’s boundaries. By outsourcing phases of R&D
processes, for example, firms may lose their know-how concerning the
production of core products. The outsourcing of processes may interact with
a firm’s organizational learning, thereby influencing the definition of the
boundary that includes the core activity of the firm. Thus, managing
outsourcing requires regulating the flow of knowledge that leaves the
organization. Such a calibration produces transaction costs, which, in the
long term, may decrease the desirability of outsourcing. To address the
dynamic interplay among forces at work in outsourcing processes we built a
system dynamics model. Specifically, the model represents the different
components of software production. One of the main industries on which
outsourcing has had a big impact in the last few years is software
development. Our model attempts to include the main dynamics of a
software-house company that is considering the possibility of outsourcing its
production. We used the model to generate a number of hypotheses to study
long term consequences of outsourcing policies.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Giovan Battista Montemaggiore
giannimonte@ hotmail.com

University of Palermo

Via del Segugio 8

90125 Palermo

Italy

Andrew P. Moore
apm@ sei.cmu.edu

Carnegie Mellon University
Software Engineering Institute
4500 Fifth Avenue

Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA

Dawn M. Cappelli

dmc@ certorg

Carnegie Mellon University
Software Engineering Institute
4500 Fifth Avenue

Pittsburgh PA 15213-3890 USA

Hannah Joseph

hjoseph@ cmu.edu

Carnegie Mellon University

CERT Software Engineering Institute
4555 Fifth Avenue

Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA

Randall F. Trzeciak

rit@ certorg

Carnegie Mellon University

CERT Software Engineering Institute
4555 Fifth Avenue

Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA

Ana Maria Mora Luna
amoraluna@ gmail.com

Medellin Metropolitan Area
Carrera 78A #46-45

Ed Ravenna Apt 902

Medellin

Colombia

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

The Dynamic Balanced Scorecard as Third
Generation of Performance Measurement Systems

In the last decades, traditional PMS, exclusively based on financial
indicators, have been criticized since they give no information about
companies’ ability to achieve long-term survival and growth. For this reason,
since the *90s scholars have been proposing several PMS oriented to evaluate
company results to the different di ions of firms’ success.
Among them, the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) still represents the most diffuse
multi-dimensional PMS both in literature and practice. Since its introduction,
the BSC has been subjected to a rapid evolution process that has led some
scholars to identify three different generations. By analyzing the BC
evolution process, we will try to underline the main requisites of the third
generation models to understand whether the Dynamic Balanced Scorecard
(DBSC) presents such characteristics. With this purpose, we will also
examine the advantages deriving from the adoption of the DBSC by an
analysis of its application to a health care organization.

An Experience Using System Dynamics to Facilitate
an Insider Threat Workshop

CERT has been investigating the use of system dynamics to better understand
the threat to an ization’s information technology (IT) systems posed by
malicious employees or contractors of that organization. At the 2006
International System Dynamics Conf wep a system

model that was originally intended to be used as an interactive simulation in a
workshop on insider threat. We believed that the model and simulation would
effectively the risks and mitigations involved in the insider
threat problem. Through several pilots of the model-based workshop we
learned how to better use system dynamics modeling as the basis for
communicating complex concepts within the insider threat domain to an
audience of business and IT managers not familiar with, or interested in
becoming familiar with, system dynamics modeling. This paper describes the
MERIT model and the development and evolution of the insider threat
workshop based on this model.

An Investigation of the Innovation Performance in
the Capital Goods Sector in Colombia: Using the
System Dynamics Approach

The innovation performance of a firm is addressed using the System
Dynamics method. The problem that motivated this study is the lack of a

123

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Pal I. Davidsen
pal.davidsen@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6 7th Floor
5020 Bergen

Norway

John D. W. Morecroft
jmorecroft@ london.edu

London Business School
Regent's Park

London NW1 4SA

UK

Don R. Morris

donr.morris@ worldnet.att.net
Miami-Dade County Public Schools
1500 Biscayne Blvd Suite 225
Miami FL 33132

USA

124 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

comprehensive theory that explains both the poor innovation performance of
the Colombian industry and its scarce level of the technological capabilities.
Although there are a number of attempts to explain the problem, their causal
structures are not fully specified and their results have not been evaluated
with regard to whether they altogether constitute a coherent and consistent
theory of the underlying causes explaining the observed dynamics. Robledo’s
(1997) research on the innovation process of the Colombian capital goods
industry is examined in detail. We tested that the dynamics that Robledo
describes can be produced by the causal factors he postulates. In Colombia,
industrialists, academics and policy-makers need to do both acknowledge
innovation as a learning process and estimate the intangible benefits of R&D.

Fish and Ships — Fishery Dynamics with Bounded
Rationality

The long-term sustainability of fisheries depends on maintaining the
appropriate balance of fish and ships (or more precisely the fishing effort of
the fleet). It sounds simple, but most of the world’s fisheries are
overexploited and in danger of collapse within 40 years. In this poster session
I explore the paradox of fisheries management with a small system dynami:
model of a harvested fishery inspired by the well-known Fish Banks gaming-
simulator. The model represents the interaction of the fish stock,
regeneration, ships at sea, investment and harvesting. I illustrate bounded
fatonality and myopia in fleet investment and the resulting formulations for
an olicy. Simulations show the tendency of fish
catch to grow and then collapse. The model is extended to include regulatory
policy whose fundamental purpose is to ensure that scientific information
about the state of the fishery influences fleet deployment in such as way as to
limit fishing effort. Further simulations examine whether, and under what
circumstances, regulation can bring about sustainable and economically
viable futures for fisheries.

Egress toward a New Paradigm for the Social
Sciences and the Role of System Dynamics in It

Historians of science have identified a number of notable changes that took
place in science in the twentieth century. Among them was an increasing
emphasis on relationships and systems, on looking at things as wholes in
which every part has to be understood in relationship to the whole. Russell
Ackoff has taken the idea a step further, maintaining that this shift to a
systems perspective characterizes a transition in worldview. Viewing the
social sciences as a single paradigm currently dominated by the ideal of the
randomized experiment, this paper takes a comparative look at that transition
from the point of the p of to causal inf
From the standpoint of an example drawn from educational research,
changing methods of analysis are examined that indicate a progression away
from the restrictions imposed by the experimental model toward a process-
oriented approach. It is argued that those developments are creating an

foray s-based igm and a more
prominent role for system dynamics.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

J. Bradley Morrison
bmorriso@ brandeis.edu
Brandeis University

19 Fox Run Road

Bedford MA 01730

USA

J. Bradley Morrison
bmorriso@ brandeis.edu
Brandeis University

19 Fox Run Road

Bedford MA 01730

USA

Jenny W. Rudolph

jrudolph@ bu.edu

Boston University Sch of Public Health
Health Services Department

715 Albany Street

Boston MA 02118 USA

John Stephen Carroll
joarroll@ mitedu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
E52-563

Cambridge MA 02139 USA

Insights from Modeling the Dynamics of Process
Improvement

Process improvement takes place in the context of ongoing work, so people
usually face the dual pressure to produce output and to build capability.
Repenning and Sterman’s (2002) study of two process improvement
initiatives developed a causal loop diagram characterizing first-order
improvements which boost output from existing processes and second-order
improvements which enhance the capability of underlying processes, but the
study stopped short of building a simulating model. This paper starts from the
feedback structure they present and constructs a system dynamics model that
formalizes the critical interaction between first- and second-order
improvements as options for governing production. Analytical results
characterize the optimal tradeoff between working harder and working
smarter. However, practitioners generally must manage this tradeoff lacking
adequate knowledge of the parameter space to find the optimum. Results
demonstrate tipping points in the dynamics of process improvement, identify
perverse behaviors that are likely to thwart the good intentions of
practitioners, and show how the feedback structure of process improvement
presents challenges to agents facing the dual pressures to produce and
improve. By moving from causal loops to a simulating model, the paper also
provides an example of how formal modeling yields more nuanced
understanding.

Modeling the Dynamics of Time-pressured
Diagnostic Sensemaking

Problem solving in urgent situations challenges decision makers to make
sense of their environment and take action quickly. This paper draws on
novel data from an in-depth study of clinical problem solving in operating
room crises to develop a grounded theoretical model of diagnostic decision
making under time pressure. We develop a system dynamics model that

i the it ions among acting, interpreting cues, and cultivating
new diagnoses. The model replicates four dynamic patterns of diagnostic
sensemaking observed in the source data: stalling, fixating, vagabonding, and
adapting. We show that self-fulfilling interpretation gives rise to fixating, but
paradoxically is also crucial to adaptive sensemaking. By exploring the
critical interactions among acting, interpreting cues, and cultivating new
diagnoses, we find that generating new diagnoses quickly may be a liability
and that, in diagnostic problem solving, acting quickly can mitigate the
effects of slow interpretation. Driven by powerful reinforcing dynamics, the
effectiveness of time-pressured decision making depends on the interplay
among these p We discuss model-bas ies for mitigating the
failure modes observed in the source data.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 125

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6

5020 Bergen Norway

Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6

5020 Bergen Norway

Ante M. Munitic
amunitic@ pfst.hr
University of Split

itime Faculty
isko-Frankopanska 38
21000 Split Croatia

Merica SliSkovic
merica@ pfst. hr

University of Split

Faculty of Maritime Studies
Zrinsko-Frankopanska 38
21000 Split Croatia

Mirko Bilié

mirko.bilic@ pfst.hr
University of Split

Faculty of Maritime Studies
Zrinsko-Frankopanska 38
21000 Split Croatia

Marko Tomasevic
University of Split
Maritime Faculty Split
Zrinsko-Frankopanska 38
21000 Split Croatia

126 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

The unavoidable a priori, revisited, or deriving the
principles of SD

Over the years, representatives of other schools of quantitative analysis have
at times critisized the System Dynamics methodology. To investigate the
basis for such criticism, I take two advanced forms of quantitative analysis as
my starting point: optimisation under uncertainty and Bayesian statistics.
These methods can be seen as shared ideals for simplified optimisation and
estimation techniques. It turns out that for an important class of dynamic
problems, System Dynamics can be seen as consistent with the advance
methods, and as an economical way to perform advanced policy analysis.

Green tax, trucker actions, media coverage,
misperception and political reversal

During the winter of 2000, truckers blocked the main roads in and out of the
Norwegian capital Oslo. The main cause was low profitability in the
business, and the reason for that was claimed to be a steady increase in the
environmental tax on diesel oil the preceding five years. As a consequence,
the politicians removed the tax. When doing so, some politicians neglected
the philosophical ground of being for their parties, and a majority of them
ignored Kyoto Treaty obligations and stated preferences for green taxes. In
this paper, I claim that all this happened because: Voters, media and policy
makers do not quantify their arguments. Their focus is on actions rather than
causes. Adam Smith’s invisible hand is still "invisible’. There seems to be no
institution readily available to correct misperceptions.

System dynamics continuous modelling of
endangered systems

Although large developed System dynamics model can be applied on
different ecological system in this paper it is applied on Kastela region in
Croatia. The Computer Simulation Submodel of The Ecological Regional
Subsystem of the "KASTELA BAY" is an extra relevant submodel of The
System Dynamics Computer Simulation Model of the “KASTELA BAY”
which has been developed with the help of System Dynamics. It is, in its
essence, a continuous model because it is presented as a system of non-linear
differential equations. At the same time, it is a discrete model, because it is
presented as a system of linear differential equations (System Dynamics
DYNAMO - software package). Its DT (length of intervening time =
computation interval) is chopped in full accordance with the Sampling
Theorem (Shannon and Koteljnikov). The System Dynamics Computer
Simulation Model of the "Kastela Bay" also employs certain experience
gathered by experts who had worked on the preparation of projects: "Blue
Plan" and "The Meth-odological Basis for the Scenario of the Management of
Natural Resources of the "Kastela Bay"" (1991).

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Sara Nazzari

sarahnazzari@ gmail.com

Sharif University of Technology

14 Amir Soori Alley East Sth Floor
Zafaranieh St

Tehran Iran

Hamid Foroughi

hamidforoughi@ yahoo.com

Sharif University of Technology
Graduate School of Mgt and Economics
Azadi Avenue

11365 Tehran Iran

Ehsan Nikoofar
ehsan.nikoofar@ gmail.com

Isfahan University of Technology
Industrial & System Engineering
Isfahan Iran

Hamed Tarkesh Isfanahi
tarkesh@ cc.iut.ac.ir

Isfahan University of Technology
Isfahan 84156 Iran

Jamshid Parvizian
jparvizian@ gmail.com

Isfahan University of Technology
Dept of Industrial Engineering
Isfahan 8415683111 Iran

Camilo Olaya

colaya@ uniandes.edu.co

Universidad de los Andes
Departamento de Ingenieria Industrial
Calle 19 A No 1-37 Este

Bogota Colombia

Fabio Andrés Diaz
fa-diaz@ uniandes.edu.co
Universidad de los Andes
Calle 19A 1-37 Este

Dpto de Ingenieria Industrial
Bogota Colombia

Organization’s Changes Through its Lifecycle; A
System Dynamics Approach

Many scholars have used organizational life cycle theory to explain

d in organizations. Each has stages of organi
development from a specific perspective by unique sets of organizational
characteristics. For example, Queen (1983) focused on changes in
organizational structure or Mintzberg (1984) emphasized on Power
perspective. So in most of the models, only some attributes are discussed to
be able to cope with the complexity of change. As a result, the relationship
between these attributes is not vividly discussed. In this paper, we tried to
extract some of the key attributes of organizations which cause the change
from the literature and concentrated on the relationship between them.
Resting on this approach, we were able to look at organizational change as a
continuous process which is caused by the mutual relationship between
different attributes. A fter recognizing the feedback loops that shape the
behavior of organizations through their life cycle, we simulated it with
system dynamics tools. Since in different situations and presumption
organizations may encounter different barriers to growth, which are referred
as crises, we developed our model for different scenarios. This way, it is
possible to view the dynamics of organization’s changes in its lifecycle.

Rise of a New Player in the Competitive
Telecommunication Market: Case study of Iran

Mobile communication is one of the most important market segments in the
telecommunication market. This rapidly growing market is going to have
2,776 million subscribers by the end of the first quarter of 2007. Iran plans to
expand the mobile communication network. One of the key steps was to
share the monopolized market with a “Second Operator”. This will be start of
a competition era in the Iranian mobile market. This paper provides a system
dynamics model to predict the interactions and competition of the two main
mobile service providers. Equilibrium is possible in which the older provider
can only survive if the market grows fast enough and the cost decreases. The
model is an example of emerge of a new player into the environment.

Towards a System Dynamics Model of De Soto’s
Theory on Informal Economy

This paper presents the first phase of a work in progress which aims at
building a System Dynamics simulation model of the theory of the Peruvian
economist Hernando De Soto. This theory proposes that the explanation for
the fail of capitalism in Latin America should be looked in the informal
sector of the region. The complete project will develop a full model for
testing and complementing such a claim. This first phase presented here
builds the platform for this endeavor; it briefly introduces the theory of De
Soto and underlines its relevance and suitability for a System Dynamics
approach; the article also connects the claims of the theory with the modeling

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 127

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Santiago Caicedo

caicedos@ gmail.com

Universidad de los Andes

Calle 19A 1-37 Este

Departamento de Ingenieria Industrial
Bogota Colombia

Gerard O'Reilly

goreilly@ alcatel-lucent.com

Bell Laboratories Alcatel-Lucent

101 Crawfords Corner Rd Room 4401
Holmdel NJ 07733

USA

Rene LeClaire

rl@ lanl. gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663

Los Alamos NM 87545

USA

Chris White
whitec@ alcatel-lucent.com
Bell Laboratories

Alan Weiss
apdoo@ apdoo.org

Nathaniel Osgood

nosgood@ mit.edu

University of Saskatchewan

Computer Science Dpt 280.6 Thorvaldson
110 Science Place

Saskatoon SK S7N 5C9 Canada

128 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

language of System Dynamics, presenting the main structures of the
simulation model and a further link with path dependence patterns. Finally,
from this discussion, the article delineates the next steps to be taken.

High Level Internet Modeling

This paper presents a hierarchical internet model suitable for simulating the
impact of a localized physical disaster on the Internet within a typical
metropolitan area. This first order model reports internet availability as the
ratio of offered to car-ried traffic. We compute the carried traffic by
examining the fraction of offered network traffic which flows through
potentially impaired network entities. The impact of a physical disruption on
a network entity reduces the carried traffic by the fraction of traffic which
passes through that entity. The model is fully parameterized with respect to
application properties (locality, latency, bandwidth, etc.) and connections to
other infrastructure models (electric, phone, etc.). We also present a
simplified system dynamics representation of this model using Vensim.

Lightening the Performance Burden of Individual-
Based Models through Dimensional Analysis and
Scale Modeling

While ind l-based models are attractive for addressing certain types of
modeling problems, such models impose (frequently dramatically) higher
performance costs for larger populations. Lengthy simulation times inhibit
interactive learning, and — given limited modeler time — can impose higher
opportunity costs by limiting model comprehension, refinement and user
interaction. This paper proposes the novel use of dimensional analysis and
scale modeling — which have long played an important role in understanding
physical systems — to lessen the performance barriers associated with
simulation of individual-based models. Given a dimensionally homogeneous
(“full-scale”) simulation model with a large population, we propose a precise,
rigorous, ic and g -purpose ique to formulate a “reduced-
scale” individual-based model that simul. a smaller populati
Measurements made of particular output parameters of such reduced-scale
models can then be precisely transformed (in accordance with model scaling
laws) to yield comparable results for a full-scale model — without the need to
run the full-scale model. While discretization effects limit the degree of
scaling that can be achieved, these techniques are notable in relying only
upon di h ity of the full-scale model, and on not the
specifics of model behavior or use of a particular mathematical framework.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Nathaniel Osgood

nosgood@ mit.edu

University of Saskatchewan

Computer Science Dpt 280.6 Thorvaldson
110 Science Place

Saskatoon SK S7N 5C9

Canada

Leeza Osipenko
Losipenko@ warwick.ac.uk
University of Warwick
Medical School

Gibbet Hill Rd
Coventry CV47AL UK

Using Traditional and Agent-Based Toolsets for
System Dynamics:

In its first 50 years, System Dynamics has evolved a rich set of modeling and
analysis tools providing support for declarative, graphical specification of
state equation models, with many features for analysis, calibration, and
visualization. Many System Dynamicists are now using Agent Based
modeling packages, which offer very different feature sets from traditional
System Dynamics tools. The many differences between these two tool
traditions have made many modelers uncertain about which toolset is most
appropriate for their needs. This paper analyzes differences between existing
traditional System Dynamics and Agent Based tools, and discusses their
impact on model quality attributes such as transparency, performance, and
accuracy. Our analysis finds that there is room for each tool tradition to
benefit by adopting features of the other. Looking forward, we argue that
both traditions are likely to converge on support for features presently

supported by just one tradition, i ing hybrid time and
states, declarative mathematical specification, modular composition,
metadata and di and expl

y
visualization. We believe that there will remain excellent reasons use a wide
spectrum of model granularities, and argue competitive modeling packages
will provide rich support for everything from extremely individual-level to
aggregate models and multi-scale hybrids.

Management of RhD-negative Pregnancies: Do New
Technologies Make a Difference?

In this work we are modelling the management process of RhD negative
pregnancies. The current practice is based on the use of anti-D as a
prophylactic measure to prevent iti of ies by
the mother against fetal blood type). RhD NIPD is a diagnostic test designed
to improve management of RhD negative pregnancies and to make the usage
of anti-D prophylaxis more efficient. Despite the latter benefit, the need for
the RhD NIPD technology introduction into clinical practice at the population
level is questionable. This test is a technology-push product rather than a
market-driven development and is characterised by high implementation
costs and no clinical impact on the decrease of sensitisations and HDFN
(haemolytic disease of fetus and newborn) cases in countries where antenatal
anti-D is implemented. However, scientists argue the importance of this test
in clinical practice. We employ systems thinking and simulation modelling to
assess the potential and the impact of this test. This work describes the

of a game si for clini and poli kers. We hope it
will serve as a useful decision-making tool for evaluation of RhD NIPD
adoption scenarios.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 129

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Peter A. Otto
ottop@ dowling.edu
Dowling College

410 Terrace Road
Schenectady NY 12306
USA

Martin Simon
sim@ bluewin.ch
ipgroup
Ruetistrasse 4
CH-8126 Zumikon
Switzerland

Gints Ozolins
gints_ozolins@ hotmail.com
University of Latvia
Avotu Str 6-29

Riga LV 1011

Latvia

Juris Roberts Kalnins
simts@ latnet.lv

Social Technology Institute
Ozolciema 24/1-13

Riga LV 1058

Latvia

Ozge Pala

o.pala@ fm.ru.nl

Radboud University Nijmegen

School of Management

Th van Aquinostraat 1.2.2 PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen

The Netherlands

Structural Interventions in Electronic Networks of
Practice: A Dynamic Grid/Group Model of Growth
and Decline.

Electronic networks of practice can help an organizations discover and share
knowledge more effectively by facilitating learning both from within the
organization as well as from entities outside the organization. In those
instances where firms have linkages with outside organizations, however, the
acquisition and sharing of knowledge takes place free from the constraints of
hierarchy and local rules. These networks can be characterized as loosely
structured, and generally self-organizing, which are made up of individuals
who voluntarily participate in the creation and sharing of knowledge.
Building networks without formal boundaries is a challenging task for any
organization. This is because those responsible for building them must not
only have to encourage the use of the new tools, but also refrain from
intervening too often. The objective of this paper is to conceptualize a
simulation model, with which we can test the effects of structural
interventions in electronic network of practice. Simulation results indicate
that: (a) too much structure (rules, regulations, and group commitment) can
result in a decline of network attractiveness; (b) lack of structural
interventions can lead to a network that only attracts those people who prefer
an environment without any form of control.

Agricultural Production and Income Dynamics in
Latvia

In this study we use system dynamics to evaluate possible development
scenarios of agricultural sector in Latvia. Growth and balancing forces of
agricultural ic are i along with ics of capital, land
and labor allocation. Resource stocks are considered from two perspectives:
a) breakdown between crop and livestock farming activities b) allocation
between ial and self- i farms. Total prod output and
per-capita income of the population employed in the sector are chosen as key
development indicators. Impact and efficiency of public support policies for
agriculture are discussed.

Effects of Causal Loop Diagrams on Escalating
Commitment

Previous research suggests that decision makers have the tendency to keep on
investing in losing courses of action. The present study focuses on de-
escalation and proposes causal loop diagrams as a technique to decrease
escalating commitment in a failing action. The effectiveness of causal loop

130 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Dirk Vriens

d.vriens@ fm.ru.nl

Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van Aquinostraat 1
PO Box 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen

The Netherlands

Jac A. M. Vennix

jvennix@ fm.ru.nl

Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van Aquinostraat 1
PO Box 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen

The Netherlands

Jung-Yeon Park
rose_park@ naver.com
KEPRI

103-16 Munji-Dong
Yuseong-Gu

Daejeon 305-380 Korea

Namsung Ahn

nsahn@ kepri.re.kr

Korea Electric Power Research Inst
106-16 Munji-Dong Yusung-Gu
305-380 Dae Jeon City Korea

Yong-Beum Yoon
ybyoon@ kepri.re.kr
KEPRI

Daejeon Korea

Kyung-ho Koh
laputa@ hanmail.net
KEPRI

Derek W. Bunn
London Business School
Sussex Place Regents Park
London NW1 4SA UK

Howard Passell
hdpasse@ sandia gov

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 0735
Albuquerque NM 87185 USA

Will Peplinski

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1350
Albuquerque NM 87185 USA

Leonard A. Malezynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories

1515 Eubank SE

Albuquerque NM 87123-1350 USA

diagrams is also contrasted with the effect of receiving a list of important
factors. Causal loop diagrams were found to decrease commitment as
compared to having no decision aid. However, no significant difference was
found between causal loop diagrams and a list of important factors as a de-
escalation technique.

Investment Incentives in the Korean Electricity
Market

This paper develops a model-based analysis of the effects of various capacity
incentive systems on new investment in the Korean electricity market. The
restructuring process in Korea allocated power generation to six firms,
competing within a wholesale market, albeit strictly on a cost basis. Because
of this cost-based pool, capacity pay were also i to

new investment. However, it is an open question whether the current fixed
capacity payment scheme is enough to secure resource adequacy and
consideration is being given to alternative mechanisms such as the use of
LOLP. Using a detailed market simulation model, based on system dynamics,
we compare these approaches in terms of how they may influence the
investors’ decisions and thereby determine the system reserve margin. The
simulation results suggest that there may be serious problems is staying with
the current fixed capacity payments in order to achieve resource adequacy. In
contrast an LOLP based capacity mechanism may, in the longer term,
increase the reserve margin compared to a fixed capacity payment. More
generally, this paper indicates how crucial the effective modeling of the
investment behavior of the independent power producers is for adequate
policy support, even if they only constitute a fringe in a substantially
centrally influenced market.

Modeling for Sensitivity Analysis in Endangered
Fish Species Management

Mi species populations is a complex task demanding
of ki across many di: spatial and temporal

scales, and ranges of human impacts. Computer simulation models can be

useful in these efforts. We describe an ecosys level model for si i

population dynamics of the Rio Grande Silvery Minnow (RGSM;
Hybognathus amarus) in the Rio Grande of central New Mexico. The model
includes numerous variables which can be set by the user for different and in
many cases uncertain minnow life history traits, impacts on mortality, and
environmental conditions. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on the
model’s output as a way of testing the robustness of the model, gaining
insights into RGSM population dynamics, and identifying important data

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 131

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Marty Ennis

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1350
Albuquerque NM 87185 USA

Kalyan S. Pasupathy
pasupathyk@ missouri.edu
University of Missouri

Department of Health Management & Info

324 Clark Hall
Columbia MO 65211
USA

Kostas Triantis
triantis@ vtedu

Virginia Tech

3300 North 17th Street
Arlington VA 22201
USA

Oleg V. Pavlov

opavlov@ wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd

Worcester MA 01609 USA

Robert K. Plice

rplice@ mail.sdsu.edu

San Diego State University

San Diego CA 92182-8234 USA

Nigel Melville

npmelv@ umich.edu

University of Michigan

Stephen M. Ross School of Business
Ann Arbor MI 48109-1234 USA

Matteo Pedercini
matteois@ hotmail.com
Millennium Institute

2200 Wilson Blvd Ste 650
Arlington VA 22201

USA

Siaka Sanogo
sasiaka@ yahoo.fr
Direction Nationale
Republique du Mali

132 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

gaps. The model returned bi i results with
currently limited ing of RGSM population d ics. Some results
were completely predictable (e.g., good fertility and mortality data are the
most important variables for understanding population dynamics), and some
offered useful insights (e.g., current captive release programs may have little
impact on long term population dynamics, but may prevent short term
extinction).

Investments in Operational Attributes and Impact
on Outcomes in Training Services

The service industry has grown considerably in the last century and
i in op i imp have i d. Op i
investments decisions have a huge impact on the profitability of the
organization not only at present but also in the future affecting the
sustainability of the organization. The service-profit chain is a framework
that brings together several components in the service delivery process.
Evaluations of service operations based on the service-profit chain and others
have taken a static approach without any consideration to the feedback
structure. We develop a system dynamics model to evaluate the impact of
number of courses offered on profitability of training services. This is
accomplished by incorporating an optimization structure using the hill-
climbing algorithm. The results from the simulation are then discussed along
with validation of the model.

A Communication Model with Limited
Information-Processing Capacity of Recipients

This paper offers a computational model of profit-driven communication,
when information-p ing capacity of reci is limited. Even though
the model was inspired by the present situation in the direct online marketing
industry, it has a wide applicability. In the model, profit-seeking
communication firms exploit freely-available attention of recipients, while
recipients allocate their limited cognitive capacity between competing tasks.
We run numerical experiments to test various technical, market and
regulatory proposals that aim at improving the social outcome. The paper
makes a theoretical contribution to the economic literature and it also
elucidates the current public policy debate about direct online marketing
industry.

Threshold21 Mali: System Dynamics-based
national development planning in Mali

This paper describes how the Threshold21 Model developed for the
Government of Mali has been used to support the preparation of the five-year
strategic plan for the country. The model proven useful at different levels in
the planning process: (1) it enabled testing the coherence of data collected;
(2) provided insights into the future development of current issues and the
emergence of new challenges in the Business-As-Usual scenario; (3)

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Karounga Camara
ckarounga@ yahoo fr
Direction Nationale
Republique du Mali

Matteo Pedercini
matteois@ hotmail.com
Millennium Institute

2200 Wilson Blvd Ste 650
Arlington VA 22201 USA

Birgit Kopainsky
birgitkopainsky@ flury-giuliani.ch
University of Bergen
Fosswinckelsgate 6

5007 Bergen Norway

Pal I. Davidsen
pal.davidsen@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6 7th Floor
5020 Bergen Norway

Stephen Alessi
steve-alessi@ uiowa.edu
University of lowa

370 Lindquist Center
Towa City IA 52242 USA

Gloria Pérez Salazar
gloria.perez@ itesm.mx
Tecnologico de Monterrey

Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng

Av Eugenio Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL
Mexico

Karla Verénica Cabrera
Tecnologico de Monterrey

Vissalia Gpe. Miramontes
Tecnologico de Monterrey

Manuel Alejandro Godoy
Tecnologico de Monterrey

Carlos Scheel
cscheel@ itesm.mx
Tecnologico de Monterrey

Ave Eugenia Garza Sada 2501 Sur

Colonia Tecnologico CP 64849
Monterrey Nuevo Leon
Mexico

supported the discussion of alternative policies and development paths; and
(4) provided a basis for monitoring and evaluation of implemented policies.
This paper reports of the use of the model at levels (2) and (3), describing
how it enabled an open discussion on the critical assumptions for economic
growth to be used in the strategic plan, and on the delays involved in the
country’s growth process. Results from the model have been eventually
incorporated in the national strategic plan.

Blending planning and learning for national
development

National development planning is a decision process at the central
government level that defines the strategic plan for a country’s long-term
development. The System Dynamics Group at the University of Bergen in
collaboration with Millennium Institute and the University of Iowa is
developing an interactive learning environment for national development
planning. BLEND is the acronym for Bergen Learning Environment for
National Development. BLEND is a networked computer learning

i that a for real planning settings where
policy makers play roles in a simulated government. The simulation model
underlying BLEND is based on Millennium Institute’s Threshold 21 model
(121) which has so far been applied in over 20 countries. T2] is a rather large
model with a high level of detail. There is, however, ample evidence that
learning environments are more effective when the models are simplified.
The purpose of this paper is therefore to identify the key learning goals that
BLEND has to address. Based on these we develop a simplified version of
T21 that exhibits a lower level of detail and eliminates non-fundamental
structural components.

Nemak: A look in to the future using a Dynamic
Balanced Scorecard

Nemak, a Mexican enterprise devoted to the production of engine cylinder
heads and blocks a market leader on the industry, tries to identify critical
external factors to gain competitive advantage as well as to understand their
influence on its overall performance in order to face the challenges of the
global economy. This paper presents the use of Balanced Scorecard based on
a System Dynamics model that intends to be a decision-making tool for the
company. The model is able to generate behavior trends on several different
scenarios.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 133

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Gloria Pérez Salazar
gloria.perez@ itesm.mx

Tecnologico de Monterrey

Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
Av Eugenio Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL Mexico

Carlos Scheel

cscheel@ itesm.mx

Tecnologico de Monterrey

Ave Eugenia Garza Sada 2501 Sur
Colonia Tecnologico CP 64849
Monterrey Nuevo Leon Mexico

Maria Angélica Martinez Medina
angelica.martinez@ itesm.mx

Tecnologico de Monterrey

156 Derrywood Dr

Vaughan ON L4K 5$3 Canada

Alessandro Persona

persona@ gest.unipd.it

University of Padua

Dept of Management and Engineering
Stradella $ Nicola 3

36100 Vicenza Italia

Fabio Sgarbossa
fabio.sgarbossa@ unipd.it
University of Padova

Achievements teaching Systems Thinking and
Systems Dynamics to Graduate students through e-
learning

This paper shows a course design and its knowledge transfer process when
teaching the changing paradigm of systems thinking, systems dynamics and
simulation, through e-learning. The course uses the methodology for
changing the analytical approach to the Systems dynamics thinking paradigm
-in three months-; and was designed under the “thought on-line” approach.
Action research method is used to observe the course evolution and to
evaluate: new knowledge, skills developed by students and student’s
improvements on the changing paradigm. This is an on-going research; we
present preliminary results about the achievements up-to-date. Even that ST,
SD and simulation are difficult topics, they can be successfully taught on the
right e-learning environment. We can state that, teaching this kind of topics
can result in a good learning experience for students. These results can
contribute to broadcast the e-learning experience to other related topics.

The Logistic Game®

Abstract The aim of this paper is to describe an innovative Logistic Game®
developed by the authors. It creates a competition between different teams in
terms of strategic decisions in logistic and p ion p in areal
production system. The game is innovative in three ways. The first is the type
of game. It is a game representing a production and logistic system, with the
dynamic problems of a real system where, with finite resources, decisions
have a relevant impact on performance. The second is the application of a

Dept of and E
Stradella San Nicola 3
36100 Vicenza Italy

Maurizio Faccio

maurizio.faccio@ unipd.it

University of Padua

Dept of Management and Engineering
Stradella San Nicola 3

36100 Vicenza Italy

Daria Battini

daria battini@ unipd it

University of Padova

Dept of Management and Engineering
Stradella San Nicola 3

36100 Vicenza Italy

Willem Geert Phaff
h.w.g.phaff@ tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Fac of Technology Policy and Mgt
Jaffalaan 5

2628 DE Delft

The Netherlands

134 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

package to create the real scenario in which the competition
develops, with the possibility to consider all factors (WIP, down times, line
balancing, skills of person, etc). The third is its possible applications, since
the game can be used not only as an educative facility, but also as a tool to
assess the management skills of a future/present manager to face real and
dynamic logistic problems.

Visualising the Effects of Non-linearity by Creating
Dynamic Causal Diagrams
Even though non-linearity is said to drive the behaviour of system dynamics

models, modellers do not have access to tecl that show this happ
The tools at their disposal to present model structure are powerful, but, by

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jill H. Slinger

j.h.slinger@ tbm.tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5

2628 BX Delft

Netherlands

Michael Phelan
michael.phelan@ ucd.ie
University College Dublin
Room D102A Building D
Carysfort Avenue Blackrock
Dublin Ireland

Sean McGarraghy
sean.megarraghy@ ucd.ie

University College Dublin
Management Information Systems
Quinn School of Business
Belfield Dublin 4 Ireland

Larry Phillips

larry.phillips@ gd-ais.com

Univ of Maryland University College
2826 Thicket Way

Olney MD 20832

USA

Suzette Johnson
suzette johnson@ essexcorp.com
University of Maryland

Jim Brinksma
james.brinksma@ gs.com
University of Maryland

Ed Zelinski
edward.zelinski@ ngc.com
University of Maryland

Kawika Pierson
kawika@ mitedu

MIT

235 Memorial Drive #207A
Cambridge MA 02139
USA

nature, static. Formal model analysis methods has made significant progress
in explaining how structure drives behaviour, but the connection to standard
model isation i have generally not yet been made. This
abet: presents work that links the results of recent formal model analysis

to Ap
visualisation tool is used to create dynamic causal diagrams that display the
changing influences of the elements of model structure over a simulation run;
it shows the waxing and waning of the influence of different sets of loops.

Mitigating the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains
using Grammatical Evolution

This research introduces a relatively new evolutionary algorithm in computer
science; Grammatical Evolution (GE), to the field of supply chain dynamics
and bullwhip mitigation. As a proof of concept several experiments are
conducted to derive optimal ordering policies for agents in a multi-tier supply
chain. These results are compared with existing research using Genetic
Algorithms (GA) to derive optimal ordering policies using similar
simulations. This paper shows that GE can consistently discover the optimal
ordering policies similar to the GA approach, and that in several experiments
GE outperforms GA.

Is Layered Disaster Response Effective: An
Analysis of Communications Problems during
Natural Disaster

This paper specifically focuses on the impact of communications failures and
information delays on timely decision-making during the initial Response
Phase to a natural disaster. A comparison of the initial response efforts to
Hurricanes Andrew (August 1992) and Katrina (August 2005), using both
systems dynamics and systems thinking approaches was conducted in an
attempt to better and i decis
making in crisis situations. All work on this paper was done by a group of
doctoral students at University of Maryland University College between
September 12th and November 18th, 2005. Since that time, several of the
recommendations identified in this paper have become points of discussion in
the ongoing national debate on how to improve response to disasters such as
Hurricane Katrina. No updating of this paper has been done to reflect
emergent concerns as analysis of the response to Katrina continues within the
federal government.

Modeling Decision Making Biases in the Context of
a Market

The effects of two behavioral decision making biases are evaluated within the
context of a system dynamics model of a market for a commodity,

overconfidence and availability. Overconfidence is modeled as an increase in
the percent of a trader’s capital they are willing to commit to any trade and is

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 135

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Angele Pieters
angele pieters@ uvt.nl
Tilburg University

3 ics and Business
PO Box 90153
5000 LE Tilburg
The Netherlands

Arie Franx
ariefranx@ planet.nl

St Elisabeth Hospital
Hilvarenbeekseweg 60.
5022 GC Tilburg

The Netherlands

Henk A. Akkermans

ha@ uvt.nl

Tilburg University

Dept Information Systems & Management
PO Box 90153

5000 LE Tilburg

The Netherlands

Erik Pruyt

erik pruyt@ vub.ac.be

Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

Erik Pruyt

erik pruyt@ vub.ac.be

Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

found to have the effect of increasing profits for traders with good
information relative to traders with poor information, as well as increasing
the volatility of the returns for traders with good information more than for
traders with poor information. The Availability Bias is modeled as a
overweighting of information easily available to a trader and is found to have
the effect of increasing the returns of traders with good information easily
available to them and decreasing the returns of traders with poor information
easily available.

E pluribus unum: Using group model building with
many interdependent organizations to create
integrated health care networks

This paper reports on an action research case study of integrated obstetric
care in the Netherlands. Efficient and patient-friendly patient flows through
integrated care networks are of major societal importance. How to design and
develop such inter-organizational patient flows is still a nascent research
area. We have shown that a modification of an existing method to support
inter-organizati t ion by system d. ics based group model
building (the Renga method (Akkermans 2001)) may be effective in
achieving such collaboration. At the time writing, the action research project
that this paper reports upon is still ongoing, but so far, perceived results are
promising.

The EU-25 Power Sector: a System Dynamics
Model of Competing Electricity Generation
Technologies

The main goal of this paper is to explore -using a system dynamics model of
the EU-25 electricity generation sector- the transition of the EU-25 electricity
generation system towards a more sustainable system characterised by much
lower CO2 emissions. The system dynamics model and the resulting
dynamics are explored by means of base case simulations, policy simulations,
scenario analyses and (univariate and multivariate) sensitivity analyses.
Finally, some Lusi ex-post criticisms and directions for future
research are discussed.

Combining System Dynamics and Ethics: Towards
More Science?

In this paper, ethics is discussed in relation to system dynamics. The domain
of ethics is very broad which is why we will first of all demarcate what is
meant by ethics here. Then, we will discuss the importance of ethics for the
domain of system dynamics and where it could come into play. Calls for,

136 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jan H. Kwakkel
j-h-kwakkel@ tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Postbus 5015

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

Erik Pruyt

erik pruyt@ vub.ac.be

Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

Michael Quigley

m.quigley@ salford.ac.uk

University of Salford

6 Cortie Street

Little Hulton Manchester M38 9WG UK

Andrew Fleming

aj fleming@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford
SCRI Centre
Bridgewater Building
Salford M7 INU UK

Brian C. Dangerfield
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford

Salford Business School CORAS
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford MS 4WT UK

James Rhys Kearney
j.rkearney@ pgr salford.ac.uk
University of Salford
292B Stretford Road
Manchester M15 STN UK

Muhammad Azeem Qureshi
muhammad.qureshi@ student.uib.no
University of Bergen

Krabbedalen 69B

5178 Loddefjord Bergen

Norway

mentions of, and applications of ethics in the system dynamics literature will
then be reviewed, followed by a discussion of possible contributions of the
explicit consideration of ethics to the domain of system dynamics and of
system dynamics to the domain of ethics. Two examples will be discussed:

i ”, Then, some advantages and
disadvantages of combining ethics and system dynamics will be discussed.
And finally, possible ways to deal with ethics in system dynamics will
furthermore be proposed in the concluding section.

Dealing with Uncertainty? Combining System
Dynamics with Multicriteria Decision Analysis or
with Exploratory Modelling

This paper discusses how system dynamics allows to deal with uncertainty,
risk, robustness, resilience and flexibility, and how this could be improved.
Two venues for improving the capacity of system dynamics to deal with
uncertainty, risk, robustness, resilience and flexibility are provided, in both
cases by matching system dynamics with other method(ologie)s, more
precisely with discontinuous multiple criteria decision analysis and with
exploratory modelling.

System Dynamics Modelling of Competing UK
Construction Firms

Although competitiveness is a widely used word in the construction industry,
with past papers modelling competitive behaviour (Drew, 1997; Katsanis,
1995), there is considerable variance in both the definition and context of this
term. As part of a 3-year multi-institutional research project, referred to as
‘The Big Ideas’, Salford University is using the System Dynamics (SD)
methodology to model the competitiveness of construction firms. The

s of a firm is rep ina‘ ive index’ (CI), which
is an 1 amalgamation of elements that impact upon a firms perceived
competitiveness. By incorporating the CI into a SD model firms will be able
to increase their understanding of the possible impact their possible actions
may have on their petitiveness. This paper nes
definitions, when used as a business idiom, and how this is related toa firm’ Ss
capabilities. The SD methodology has then been used to quantify and model
firms’ competitiveness.

System Dynamics Modeling of Public Expenditure
and Human Development - A Case of Pakistan
This study develops a system dynamics model to estimate population,

primary education rate and access to basic health care given exogenous gross
domestic product (GDP) and public spending on education and health to

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 137

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Muhammad Azeem Qureshi
muhammad.qureshi@ student.uib.no
University of Bergen

Krabbedalen 69B

5178 Loddefjord Bergen

Norway

Jaziar Radianti
jaziar.radianti@ hia.no

Agder University College

Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509

NO-4898 Grimstad Norway

Jose J. Gonzalez

jose.j.gonzalez@ hia.no

Agder University College

Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509

NO-4898 Grimstad Norway

138 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

examine the impact of public expenditure on human development i in
Pakistan. It predicts p path of f ion, primary and
access to basic health care. The results show that high economic growth may
not result into better human development indicators. On the contrary, high
spending on education and health will improve human development
indicators even if the economy grows at a relatively lower rate. It suggests a
threshold of 3% of sustained economic growth rate as a pre-requisite to plan
for human development in Pakistan. With that in place this paper suggests
anchoring of public policy to human development by allocating more public
funds for human development. Key Words: Human Development, Public
Policy, Public Expenditure, System Dynamics.

System Dynamics Modeling of Sustainable Food
Security in Pakistan

This study develops a system dynamics based simulation model to
understand dynamics of food security of Pakistan assuming exogenous GDP.
The management of sustainable food security in Pakistan is based on the
available agricultural land, size of its population and productivity of the
factors of production. The natural endowment of agricultural land in use will
decrease over time limiting food supply in Pakistan. Increased productivity of
land and labor through education and technology may help improve situation.
On the other hand, the sheer size of the population will worsen the food
security situation. The simulation results suggest that economic growth rate
of 4.75% or more coupled with high public spending on human development,
higher than current levels of 2% on education and 1% on health, is a must for
sustainable food security in Pakistan. Such an economic growth rate and
commitment to human development will not only improve human
development indicators but will also ensure sustainable food security.
However, one critical finding is that Pakistan may not be able to provide the
threshold calories to its population required for a healthy living. This clearly
suggests persistent prevalence of malnutrition even though it may reduce
over time.

A Preliminary Model of the Vulnerability Black
Market

The emergence of vulnerability black markets enhances the opportunities for
malicious actors to launch exploits toward computer networks, to commit
cyber-crime and to perform other unlawful activities. Asymmetric
information, inadequate software testing, lack of incentive to improve quality
of the software are presumed to be the most important grounds of the
software vulnerability problems. This work is a preliminary model to build a
structure that may explain the factors influencing the emergence of
vulnerability black market and to simulate undesired consequences from
desired effect to eliminate software vulnerabilities. The purpose of the
research is to provide better understanding for information security
community about the dynamic features of the software vulnerability and the
ity black market p

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Michael J. Radzicki
mjradz@ wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Dept of Social Science and Policy
100 Institute Road

Worcester MA 01609-2280 USA

Martin Rafferty
rafferm@ Isbu.ac.uk

London South Bank University
103 Borough Road

London SE1 0AA

UK

Kk. Raman
ramank0@ yahoo.com

43 Alderwood Drive
West Hartford CT 06117
USA

T. V. Rajan

Univ of Connecticut Health Center
Farmington CT 06032

USA

In Defense of System Dynamics: A Response to
Professor Hayden

In a 2006 paper in the Journal of Economic. Issues, Professor Gregory |
Hayden argued that system d. ics is an inad tool for the
institutional systems principles of hierarchy, feedback and openness. The
purpose of this paper is to show that Professor Hayden’s claims are, for the
most part, misguided and, in some instances, patently incorrect. Moreover,
we will reinforce the view that ining system ics with

economics can be a very powerful approach to heterodox economic analysis.

Reductionism, Holism and System Dynamics

The objective of this paper is to examine the concepts of holism and
reductionism as they relate to System Dynamics (SD) and to a lesser extent
Systems Thinking (ST) then to relate the findings of that examination to
some of the disillusionment with SD and the resultant lack of commercial
take up. This paper looks at the concepts of Reductionism and Holism as
applied throughout the literature in a broad range of academic areas from
medicine and philosophy to physics and looks at different definitions of
holism, and reductionism. Practical applications of Reductionist and Holistic
principles are examined. From this analysis the fundamental nature of SD as
a Holistic/Reductionist methodology is deduced and differentiated from the
more generally holistic nature of ST. From this basis the conclusion that SD
is a reductionist methodology in practice, though not necessarily described as
such by practitioners, is postulated. The paper recommends that there be
further work carried out in the field of theoretical and practical holism and
greater awareness of these issues within the practitioner community. Within
the conclusions there is a pointer for some further fundamental areas of work.

Disease Modeling with Application to Parasite-
borne Diseases

System Dynamics provides a suitable framework for modeling diseases that
can bring together biological, epidemiological, clinical, and public health
issues in a manageable way. In this paper, we discuss models for the
and of parasite-borne diseases which involve a

primary host (e.g. a human), a vector(e.g. a mosquito), and a parasite . The
models discussed here are being applied to different diseases; this paper will
refer primarily to results for filaria. We first examine models for the biology
of the disease in a vector and in a host, and for disease transmission between
two humans through a vector. We then discuss a model for disease

ission in a popul of vectors ing with a population of hosts.
We examine the effect of different control strategies, including preventive
measures as well as treatment, and also possible effects of changes in the
environment. We point out some of the complexities inherent in the
biological processes, and the variability resulting from change in the values
of the parameters in the system.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 139

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jorgen Randers
jorgen.randers@ bi.no

Norwegian School of Management
Abbedisvingen 6

N-0280 Oslo

Norway

Ulrich Goliike
goluke@ blue-way.net
Hoertensteinerstr 1
86911 Diessen
Germany

Eliot Rich

rich@ acm.org

University at Albany

Dept of Info Technology Management
1400 Washington Avenue BA-310
Albany NY 12222 USA

Mark R. Nelson

mnelson@ nacs.org

National Association of College Stores
500 East Lorain Street

Oberlin OH 44074 USA

Andrew Whitmore
ajw367@ gmail.com
University at Albany

911 Central Avenue #164
Albany NY 12206 USA

Donald Robadue
don@ robadue.com

Coastal Resources Center
722 South Road
Wakefield RI 02879
USA

Raul del Moral Simanek

11319@ prodigy.netmx

Universidad Autonoma Baja California
Facultad de Ciencias Marinas

Apdo Postal 453

Ensenada CP 22800

México

140 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Forecasting Turning Points in Shipping Freight
Rates — Lessons from 30 Years of Practical Effort

We argue that it is possible to explain much of the history of the world’s
shipping markets since 1950 as the interaction of two balancing feedback
loops: a capacity adjustment loop which creates a “20-year” wave, and a
capacity utilizati i loop which a “4-year” cycle. We
show how this insight has been used rather successfully since the early 1980s
for practical forecasting of turning points in the shipping market 1 - 4 years
ahead of time. The basic mechanisms in the shipping system create a strong
“deterministic backbone” which is visible through the exogenous noise, and
hence predictable with useful precision. Our experience leads to a number of
questions concerning system dynamics best practice, for future research.

IT Project Management, Concept Modeling, and
Blind Dates

This paper describes a recent activity where scholars from two disciplines
met to consider possible systemic causes of repeating failure during a three-
decade long IT modernization project in the US government. From the
system dynamics perspective, the problem appears to be related to a dynamic
and repeating failure with an emt project

model. We decided to use a simple project model to develop this perspective.
Our initial attempt shows some of the anticipated dynamics of project
escalation. More important, though, was the discussion of the problem itself
that was launched by the use of a formal model. We believe that this
approach has provided insight into how to approach a more focused and
grounded analysis of the problem domain.

A system dynamics perspective on a global fishing
enterprise: the case of tuna ranching industry in
Mexico

Tuna ranching is a value-added economic activity along the coast of Baja
California in Mexico involving the live capture and transport of migrating
juvenile bluefin tuna to pens located near shore, where they are fed for a
period of months then harvested and shipped fresh for the high-end sushi
market, which is centered in Japan but expanding elsewhere. Ranching is
nested within the entire global tuna fishing and processing business. Little is
known outside the industry about the functioning of Mexican tuna ranching,
which differs in important ways compared to its Australian and
Mediterranean counterparts, and does not involve the harvest of reproducing
age animals. Our analysis and exploratory modeling exercise identify several
factors and issues that merit closer examination. A feedback perspective can
shed light on whether Mexican ranching activities have the potential to
become sustainable.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

J. Barkley Rosser
rosserjb@ jmu.edu

James Madison University
Department of Economics
MSC 0204

Harrisonburg VA 22807 USA

Tommaso Rossi
trossi@liuc.it

Universita Carlo Cattaneo LIUC
Corso Matteotti 22

21053 Castellanza VA

Italy

Carlo Noé

cnoe@ liuc.it

Universita Carlo Cattaneo LIUC
Corso Matteotti 22

21053 Castellanza VA

Italy

Margherita Pero
margherita.pero@ polimi.it

Politecnico di Milano

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Gestionale
via Colombo 40

20135 Milano

Italy

Andrea Sianesi

andrea.sianesi@ polimi.it

Politecnico di Milano

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Gestionale
via Colombo 40

20135 Milano

Italy

Etiénne A. J. A. Rouwette
erouwette@ fm.ru.nl

Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van Aquinostraat |

PO Box 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen

The Netherlands

Computational and Dynamic Complexity in
Economics

This paper examines the rising competition between computational and
dynamic conceptualizations of complexity in economics. While computable
economics views complexity as something rigorously defined based on
concepts from probability, information, and computability criteria, dynamic
complexity is based on whether a system endogenously and deterministically
generates erratically dynamic behavior of certain kinds. One such behavior is
the phenomenon of emergence, the appearance of new formes or structures at
higher levels of a system from processes occurring at lower levels. While the
two concepts can overlap, they represent substantially different perspectives.
A competition of sorts between them my become more important as new,
computerized market systems emerge and evolve to higher levels of
complexity of both kinds.

Supply network design and collaboration: a
preliminary study

This paper is aimed at formalizing and testing a model for explaining the
relations among supply chain design decisions (i.e. sourcing strategies,
number of network stages, nodes’ capacity and localization) and the need for
collaboration between the nodes of pull-based supply chain. As a
consequence, a causal diagram which depicts such relations i is built and its
validation is performed by means of si and
analyses (ANOVA and linear regression). In particular, since the magnitude
of the relations is out of the scope of the paper, the validation is done in
relative terms. The results obtained by running the simulation model of the
supply chain which represents the ‘base case’ are compared with the outputs
of the models which simulates the original logistic network modified
according to the above mentioned supply chain design elements. The
statistical analyses allow the majority of the relations of the proposed causal
diagram to be actually validated.

Modeling crime control in the Netherlands: insights
on process
This paper is about a group model building project at the Ministry of Justice

in the Netherlands. The aim of the model is to gain insight into the combined
effects of an increase in the case load and investments in different phases of

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 141

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Paul van Hooff
p.p.m.van.hooff@ minjus.nl
Ministry of Justice
Schedeldoekshaven 100
PO Box 20301

2500 EH Den Haag
The Netherlands

Jac A. M. Vennix

jvennix@ fm.ru.nl

Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van Aquinostraat 1
PO Box 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen

The Netherlands

Wouter Jongebreur
wouter jongebreur@ significant.nl
Significant BV
Thorbeckelaan 91

3771 ED Barneveld

The Netherlands

Agnes Rwashana Semwanga
asemwanga@ citmak.ac.ug

Makerere University

Faculty of Computing and IT

PO Box 7062

Kampala Uganda

Ddembe W. Williams

d.williams@ cit.mak.ac.ug

Makerere University

Faculty of Computing & Information Tec
PO Box 7062

Kampala Uganda

Felicjan Rydzak
felicjan.rydzak@ pwr. wroc.pl

Wroclaw University of Technology
Inst of Production Eng & Automation
Lukasiewicza 5

50-371 Wroclaw

Poland

Edward Chlebus

chlebus@ itma.pwr.wroc.pl

Wroclaw University of Technology
Inst of Production Eng & Automation
Lukasiewicza 3/5

50-371 Wroclaw

Poland

142 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

criminal justice ini and such as
increased complexity of cases. A group of representatives from the police
force, public prosecution, courts and sentence execution participated in
constructing the model from January to August 2004. In this paper we report
on reasons for starting the modeling effort and the process of model
construction. We then compare the procedure followed to ‘scripts’ — small
parts of modeling process that have been tested out in practice and serve as
standard building blocks for a group model building project. Scripts specify a
technique, the situations for which it is suited and the expected results,
enabling a modeler to choose from the wide variety of available modeling
techniques. By describing the process followed in this case and consistently
relating it to well-established practices we hope to further clarify the
modeling process, by contributing to the existing body of modeling
techniques and the dissemination of process insights.

Is Immunization Demand Equal to Immunization
Coverage? A Case Study on Uganda Healthcare
Provision

Abstract. This paper critically examines the challenges associated with
demand for immunization, including the interplay of political, social,
economic and technology forces that influence the level of immunization
coverage. In an earlier paper by the same authors, system dynamics modeling
and case study research methods are used to capture the complex and
dynamic nature of the immunization process. This paper suggests a
framework to capture the complex and dynamic nature of the immunization
process and tests its effectiveness using a case study on Uganda healthcare
provision. The results indicate in cases of developing nations, immunization
demand outstrips immunization coverage. The paper suggests that the model
and results could be used for theory building in immunization policy
evaluation in developing countries.

Application of Resilience Analysis in Production
Systems — Bombardier Transportation Case Study

This article presents the results of ongoing research on resilience in
production systems. It refers to the term resilience as a way of dealing with
uncertainty and disturbances. The proposed resilience analysis method, based
on dynamic models, supports analysis of the production system in order to
determine which structures and p should be impr d or reduced,
and what resources preserved, in order to manage resilience. The application
of the method is presented using results of the research project in Bombardier
Transportation manufacturing plant in Poland. For the purpose of the analysis
highly detailed discrete-event model and System Dynamics model were built.
Both area of interest of both models complemented one another. In this paper

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Alexander V. Ryzhenkov
ryzhenko@ ieie.nsc.ru

Russian Academy of Sciences

Inst for Economics & Industrial Eng
17 Academician Lavrentiev Avenue
Novosibirsk 630090

Russia

Rosemarie Sadsad
rsadsad@ student.unsw.edu.au
University of New South Wales
Centre for Health Informatics
Coogee Campus

Sydney NSW 2052

Australia

Geoff McDonnell
gmcdonne@ bigpond.net.au
Adaptive Care Systems
382 Bronte Road
Bronte NSW 2024
Australia

the main focus is given to the System Dynamics model. In the course of the
research project the System Dynamics approach proofed to be very useful for
examining the impacts of various disturbances and possible solution policies.
As a tool for the resilience analysis results dissemination, the dynamic model
based simulator, was prepared.

Controlling Employment, Profitability and Proved
Non-Renewable Reserves in a Theoretical Model of
the U.S. Economy

This paper elaborates the original theoretical law of capital accumulation that
generates scenarios of macroeconomic evolution. The main variables are
relative labour compensation, employment ratio, and gross unit rent,
produced capital-output ratio, proved non-renewable reserves-output ratio,
desired proved ible reser’ itput ratio, and depl of non-
renewable reserves per unit of net output. Worsening profitability and
declining employment ratio over the long term characterise an inertia
scenario for the U.S. economy over 1991-2107. Excessive depletion of
proved non-renewable reserves contributes to these disadvantageous

dencies. A forward-looking ii policy based on proportional and
derivative control over proved non-renewable reserves brings about their
extension, raises profitability and employment over the long term in the first
normative scenario in comparison with the inertia scenario. The initial
theoretical law is transformed into control law of capital accumulation. The
operational application of this control law to the U.S. economy reveals and
explains substantial lasting improvements in profitability, employment ratio,
labour productivity and real labour compensation in the second normative
scenario compared with the first normative scenario that are achieved
together with extending proved non-renewable reserves due to excess income
levy. Keywords: Capital accumulation, proved reserves, long wave, closed
loop control, excess income levy, the U.S. economy.

Using multi-scale systems simulation to evaluate
health record solutions to improve medication use
by the elderly

Elderly patients use more ications given the pi of c

putting them at risk of experiencing medication errors. A highly anticipated
strategy is the implementation of health record solutions, namely a mix of
shared electronic health records and personal health records. This
intervention provides information for all individuals involved in the
medication use system (patients, carer, doctors and pharmacists) and enables
them to make more informed decisions throughout the medication use
process (prescribing, dispensing, administering, monitoring of medications).
However, it is difficult to direct the design of such an integrated health record
solution that takes into consideration contextual factorsand its impact on,
existing interventions and society. Traditional methods such as random
controlled trials lack the capacity to capture the scale of the problem and are

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 143

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Khalid Saeed

saeed@ wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road

Worcester MA 01609

USA

Ahmed Salama
ahsalama@ gmail.com
Regional IT Institute
11A Hassan Sabri
11211 Zamalek Cairo
Egypt

Khaled Wahba

khaled. wahba@ riti.org

Cairo University

Regional IT Institute

11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211

Egypt

Samir Makary
smakary@ aucegypt.edu
Regional IT Institute
11A Hassan Sabri
11211 Zamalek Cairo
Egypt

Abdolrahim Salavitabar
a.salavitabar@ gmail.com

Abazma Research Center

21 Sixth Mehr Alle Fatemieh St
Saba Blvd Ghytarieh Shariaty Ave
Tehran 19336

Tran

144 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

inadequate in terms of time frames, cost, resources required, and non-
applicability of trial settings. Multi-scale simulations can represent the
system’s different spatial and temporal resolutions providing a logical and
consistent framework for dynamic analysis and a means to design and test
health record policies to cover a range of possible futures in a risk-free
environment.

Trend Forecasting as Derivative Control

This paper revisits the use of trend forecasting in driving policy in social
systems by comparing it with derivative control in classical control theory.
While both processes involve use of trend to determine policies for achieving
reliable performance, the outcomes of the former have considerable
variability while those of the later can create improvement in performance
with certainty. The similarities and differences between the two processes are
discussed and guidelines suggested for improving the efficacy of trend-
forecasting in policy design in social systems.

The Dynamic Impact of the Cost of Doing Business
on SME’s in the Economy of Egypt

This research deals with the problems still constraining the private sector in
Egypt such as complicated and costly rules and entry regulations. The
research concentrates on legal requirements that need to be met before a
business can officially start the operation, the official cost of meeting these
requirements, and the minimum time it takes to meet them if the authorities
do not delay the process. One of the major problems that face SME’s is that
they take a very long time and pay high fees to get registered and start the
business “legally”. A recent study published by the World Bank based on few
indicators measuring the smoothness of starting a business in 155 countries,
placed Egypt in the rank 115. Normal procedures such as registering the
company, issuing licenses, paying taxes and even closing the business take,
in other parts of the world, much less than what they take in Egypt. All these
regulatory “barriers” - so called procedures - allow the creation of “unofficial
economy” or the “informal economy”. The informal economy has very
negative impacts on Egyptian economy. In other words, the Egyptian
government loses a substantial share of its income due to this informal sector.

Tehran Water Resources Management ; Using
System Dynamic Approach
1 Abstract: The growing Population and scarcity of fresh and clean water in

Tehran is the most important issues facing the Water Resources Management
in this city and neighboring region. Despite the growing attention to a chronic

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Ahmad Abrishamchi
abrisham@ sharif.edu
Sharif University

Civil Engineering Dept
Azadi Street

Tehran

Tran

Abbas Afshar

a_afshar@ iust.ac.ir

Science and Technology University
Civil Engineering Dept

Narmak Farjam Street

Tehran Iran

Mohamed Mostafa Saleh
saleh@ salehsite.info

Cairo University

27 El-Obour Buildings

Salah Salem St Naser City

Cairo Egypt

Pal I. Davidsen
pal.davidsen@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6 7th Floor
5020 Bergen Norway

Markus Salge

salgem@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar

D-68131 Mannheim
Germany

crisis in Tehran water resources our Ability to correctly assess and predict the
trend of demand and the water availability and balance is still quite limited.
For better understand and predict the Tehran Supply and Demand condition a
System Dynamic model is developed and used to assess the balance of
sources and sinks and also the state of water storages and the degree of water
supply reliability. It has shown that there is a strong relationship between the
reliability of water supply and the following parameters: * Population growth
which its main source is immigration. * Demand \ + Supply
management The immigrant in Tehran is due to the attractiveness of Tehran.
In the demand management side, the average consumption rate in Tehran is
about 350 I/d per person which is very high. For the supply management, the
water transfer from other basin after observing all criteria as well as
optimization of water potential in Tehran water shed should be studied.

Extending eigenvalue analysis to nonlinear models
via incorporating higher order terms of Taylor
series expansion

This paper is a concept paper about a suggestion proposed by Nathan
Forrester, in the last year conference to extend eigenvalue analysis to
nonlinear models. His idea was to consider higher order terms of the Taylor
series expansion when approximating nonlinear models. In this paper, we
demonstrate the feasibility of Nathan's idea. The main contribution of this
paper is to devise a pragmatic approach to solve the resulting equations of
Taylor series expansion. This pragmatic approach is based on our novel
concept of 'smoothed Jacobian' matrix, which is computed from both the
ordinary Jacobian matrix and the set of Hessian matrices. Recall that the
elements of the ordinary Jacobian matrix represent slopes of relationships,
while the elements of the Hessian matrices represent curvatures of
relationships. So by integrating the elements the ordinary Jacobian with the
elements of the Hessian matrices, we are actually smoothing the slopes given
the knowledge about curvatures. Consequently we are smoothing the time
trajectories of eigenvalues and eigenvectors in nonlinear models.

The Good, the Bad and the Mediocre: Creating
Insightful Stories on Process Improvement

Building upon previous work in the field of system dynamics, a generic
model of multiple improvement programs is outlined. The model is used to
create insightful stories on success and failure in process improvement
initiatives. The simulation experiments reveal that plants should strive for
implementation patterns that focus on programs exhibiting higher
organizational complexity rather than technical complexity. Furthermore, the
simulation analyses provide insights in the interplay between organizational
learning, program i and process imp . The value of the
conducted approach lies in the explicit investigation of the impact of varying
improvement program patterns on plant performance.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 145

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Juan Jose Sanchez
juanjose.sanchez@ iit.upcomillas.es
Comillas University

Research Institute

Santa Cruz de Marcenado 26
28015 Madrid

Spain

Julian Barquin
julian.barquin@ iitupcomillas.es
Comillas University
Research Institute

Santa Cruz de Marcenado 26
28015 Madrid

Spain

Efraim Centeno
efraim.centeno@ iit. upcomillas.es
Comillas University
Research Institute

Santa Cruz de Marcenado 26
28015 Madrid

Spain

Sangeeta Sardiwal
sardiws@ Isbu.ac.uk

London South Bank University
103 Borough Road

London SE1 0AA

UK

Jeremy B. Sato
jbs2@ cec.wustl.edu
Washington University
2 Hobbs Mill Court

St Charles MO 63303
USA

146 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

System Dynamics Models for Generation Expansion
Planning in a Competitive Framework: Oligopoly
and Market Power Representation

This paper proposes several alternative methods to improve system dynamics
models used in the literature for i planning in li i
electricity markets. Concretely, these methods provide a better representation
of oligopoly structures and market power. These improvements focus on
market price and productions calculations, future markets modelling and
companies’ differentiation when deciding new investments. The methods
presented in the paper are based on equilibrium approaches and credit risk
theory.

Alvaro Lopez-Pefia
alvaro.lopezpena@ iit.upcomillas.es
Comillas University

Research Institute

Santa Cruz de Marcenado 26
28015 Madrid

Spain

Conceptualization and formulation of a UK health
and social care system using System Dynamics

The UK health and social care systems are continuously changing over time.
Other authors have previously put a strong case for usage of system dynamics
(SD) in this area largely because SD address issues of system complexity and
identification of feedback loops, resulting in a greater insight into this
problem situation. This paper presents research carried out in two areas of
SD, firstly the conceptualizing of a problem and secondly the building of a
SD model related to the dynamic problem of ‘‘bed blocking”’ in the UK
health and social care domain. A case study approach has been applied to a
hospital discharge department and elderly wards in a main UK hospital. This
paper provides a useful insight into issues that have occurred when
conceptualizing and formulating a health and social care SD model. System
behavior has been discussed as has the use of causal loop diagrams and stock
and flow diagrams. Causal loop diagrams and stocks and flows have shown
to play a useful part in overcoming SD difficulties. SD has proved to be a
useful method in helping to gain an insight into the dynamics of a health and
social care system. This is a preliminary paper, future papers will expand on
this to look at policy experiments and sensitivity tests.

A System Dynamics Approach to Analyzing
Violence, Death, and Displacement in Darfur
This paper presents a System Dynamics approach to analyzing the violence

and widespread death and displacement in Darfur, Sudan, as observed since
2003. We lay a for using to i i the underlying

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Bonnie Kopolow Stansen
bonfirestl@ aol.com

Washington University in St. Louis
8032 Venetian Drive

Clayton MO 63105 USA

Agata Sawicka
agata.sawicka@ hia.no
Agder University College
Grooseveien 36
NO-4876 Grimstad
Norway

Felicjan Rydzak

felicjan.rydzak@ pwr.wroc.pl

Wroclaw University of Technology
Inst of Production Eng & Automation
Lukasiewicza 5

50-371 Wroclaw

Poland

Ali Kerem Saysel

ali.saysel@ boun.edu.tr

Bogazigi University

Institute of Environmental Sciences
34342 Bebek Istanbul

Turkey

Firat Incioglu
firat.incioglu@ gmx.net
Bogazici University

Saral Sitesi D Blok 19
Gayrettepe Istanbul 34349
Turkey

structure and effects of violence; model analysis indicates that presently the
dynamics may be driven by the population at risk more so than aggressor
intent. This model can aid in future policy analysis and establishes a
foundation for using System Dynamics to understand the structure and
pattern of genocide. We present several challenges to analyzing the Darfur
crisis ing observability, i ion delays, and the choice of metrics.
Finally we discuss modeling results and options for intervention and propose
several policy questions and areas for future research.

Incorporating Delays in the Decision-Making
Interface: An Experimental Study

Delays are one specific factor contributing to misperceptions of dynamics.
An experimental study was conducted to investigate how different
representations of delays in the decision making interfaces (DMIs) may affect
people’s ability to manage and understand a dynamic system. A simple
production-i t game was developed with four distinct
DMIs, each featuring the production delay in a different way. Subjects were
assigned randomly to use one of the four DMIs and a single-subject, think-
aloud experimental protocol was deployed to gather data on the decision
making process. No vivid impact of the different representations of the delay
in the DMI was observed. However, data gathered through the single subject
experimental protocol suggest that the subjects do not follow the anchoring
and adjustment rule proposed earlier (see Sterman 1989). Rather, they
develop a simplified decision rule that is not robust to changes in the task
settings but that is successful in the context of the particular experimental
task.

CO2 Abatement and Trade with Economic Growth
in the Long Term: Experimental Analysis

So as to stabilize the ic 1 gas at tolerable
levels, global emissions should dramatically be reduced soon within this
century. To achieve this end, a long term global cooperation and developing
country participation is essential. In this paper, we take the “Contraction and
Convergence” framework first proposed by the CSE of India as one possible
treaty and investigate the long term abatement and trading behavior of
countries with economic growth. Dynamic simulation based economic
experiments is the method. Seven countries with potential buyers and sellers
trade permits in the global market for 25 years. For each simulated year, asks
and bids of the countries /regions are collected and permit prices are set at the
equilibrium price. In the first treatment, annual national quotas expire each
year and the countries cannot save their . In the second
the countries are allowed to transfer quota surplus /deficit up to 30 /20
percent of their annual emissions to the next year. One hypothesis is that,
neither the developed nor the developing countries will make sufficient
timely reductions and they will create ici costs for their
as the quota prices increase over the years. An implication of this result is
global cooperation being threatened under more stringent reduction

and i ing costs of i

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 147

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl

Universidad de Talca

FACE

Avenida Lircay s/n

Talca Chile

Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl

Universidad de Talca

FACE

Avenida Lircay s/n

Talca Chile

Jurgen Scheffran
University at Illinois
Program in Arms Control
Champaign IL 61820 USA

Todd BenDor

bendor@ uiuc.edu

University of North Carolina
New East Building

Campus Box # 3140

Chapel Hill NC 27599-3140 USA

148 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Causality and diagrams for system dynamics

Polarity and causality are important concepts but have not received much
attention in the system dynamics literature. The great effort it takes students
to properly understand them has motivated this inquiry. In the framework of
a conceptual model of interacting with complex systems, several cognitive
tasks are proposed. This paper concentrates on one of them that deals with
causal links’ polarity. An examination of other approaches that deal with
causality and use more or less similar diagram languages shows that usually
causality is only very broadly defined, and where it is operationally defined,
this is done with respect to events rather than behavior. In contrast to these
approaches, system dynamics is about behavior rather than events. We then
revisit the traditional criticism of causal loop diagrams and show a way out,
but add two new criticisms related to the inability of causal loop diagrams to
address behavior: in fact it seems that they are closer to the event-related
definition of causality. Also, the impossibility to execute them in simulations
means that dels are to be preferred: they express
important information a causal loop diagram cannot represent and on top of it
they render the behavioral consequences visible (as opposed to the events).

Educational quality and equality — why are they so
hard to reconcile?

Since the ‘50s, there have been voices that governments should cease to
operate schools and limit themselves to financing it via a voucher system and

ing schools’ pli: to quality In the early ‘80s, this
has been implemented in Chile. There are three types of schools: private ones
freely charge fees, private subsidized that have a limited fee and public. The
quality and equality of the school system fall short of expectations. This
paper proposes a qualitative model to explain what is going on. Families are
assumed to prefer higher performing schools, teachers prefer better labor
conditions and schools prefer favored pupils and better teachers. Richer
schools attract more favored families that enable improved results due to the
favored-pupil effect; additionally their ability to charge higher fees allows
them to attract the best teachers, which further enhances their advantage. We
find 5 positive feedback loops. The result is a process of concentration of
favored pupils and good teachers that increases inequality. It is concluded
that there are unequal conditions amongst the types of schools, and as long as
they persist, no initiative in favor of more equality will succeed.

A Spatial-Dynamic Model of Introducing Bioenergy
Crops in Illinois

Growing concern about climate change and energy security has led to
increasing interest in developing domestically available renewable energy
sources for meeting the electricity, heating and fuel needs in the United
States. Illinois has significant potential to grow perennial grasses that can
provide bioenergy. Recent research on miscanthus has shown that this low-
input perennial may have biomass yields that are twice that of switchgrass

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Yun Wang
yunwang@ uiuc.edu
Uniy of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Bruce Hannon

bhannon@ express.cites.uiuc.edu

Uniy of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Dept of Geography MC150

607 S Matthews Street

Urbana IL 61801 USA

Bernd Scholz-Reiter
bsr@ biba.uni-bremen.de
BIBA IPS

Hochschulring 20

28359 Bremen

Germany

Salima Delhoum
del@ biba.uni-bremen.de
Universitat Bremen
BIBA - IPS
Hochschulring 20
28359 Bremen Germany

Michael Schwandt

schwandt@ viedu

Virginia Polytechnic Inst & State Univ
835 Collins Street

Christiansburg VA 24073

USA

Kostas Triantis
triantis@ vtedu

Virginia Tech

3300 North 17th Street
Arlington VA 22201
USA

James Glenn
jrglenn@ viedu

and corn. Land requirements from growing biomass crops compete with
existing profitable land uses, which in the case of Illinois, is primarily in row
crop agriculture. This study ines the ditions of switching land from
row crops to energy crops which are expected to vary across the ‘landscape in
Illinois, depending on soil quality and climatic conditions. To find the
optimal land allocation among competing uses we will use spatial dynamic
modeling tools combined with data from Geographic Information Systems
(GIS) on land quality, climate and land use. The Spatial Modeling
Environment (SME) allows inclusion of spatially enabled dynamic models to
combine syst and agent-b: deling app Four major
crops are compared, including corn, soybeans, miscanthus, and switchgrass.

Decision Patterns of Inventory Control Based on a
Learning Lab with the Supply Net Game

The essay attempts to estimate the value of aggregating a simulation game for
inventory control, namely the supply net game, and a systems thinking
intervention through the left-hand column (LHC) method. By value it is
meant the performance of the subjects in respect with the deterministic task
of inventory control. Particularly, people’s performance is measured by the
mean marginal inventory costs. A novel application of the left-hand column
method is reported. The experimental design and methodology showed that a
significant difference exists between the mean of every individual team,
which had had a mental model elicitation with LHC before it played the
simulation game, and that of the quasi-optimal heuristic of anchoring and
adjustment. On the basis of these preliminary results, it cannot be inferred
that the learning lab affects the performance of the students. However, these
outcomes must be verified by further work encompassing qualitative and
quantitative enhancements to this experiment. The learning laboratory offers
a number of team and individual learning perspectives.

Intercollegiate Athletic Departments Performance
Assessment

Like other United States II athletics departments
face the challenge of operating efficiently and effectively. Performance
measurement in this environment is made more challenging by the need to be
successful both on and off the playing fields. With its focus on structural
performance contributions, system dynamics modeling works well with data
envelopment analysis, which is focused on input-output relationships, to
provide a more pl of performance and

This bined supports policy analysis that
contributes to performance improvement opportunities. This research outlines
the success achieved by linking these two approaches, even with the system
dynamics contribution limited to a qualitative model.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 149

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Michael Schwandt

schwandt@ viedu

Virginia Polytechnic Inst & State Univ
835 Collins Street

Christiansburg VA 24073

USA

Markus Schwaninger
markus.schwaninger@ unisg.ch
University of St Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a

CH-9000 St Gallen
Switzerland

Kristjan Ambroz
kambroz@ vanguardstrategy.com
Vanguard Strategy

33 Soho Square

London W1D 3QU

UK

Camilo Olaya

colaya@ uniandes.edu.co

Universidad de los Andes
Departamento de Ingenieria Industrial
Calle 19 A No 1-37 Este

Bogota

Colombia

Doreen Schwarz
doreen.schwarz@ tu-cottbus.de
Brandenburg Technical Univ Cottbus
Lieberoser Str 7A

03046 Cottbus

Germany

150 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Modeling Risk Classification Scheme for System
Dynamics Modeling

System dynamics modelers face a broad spectrum of risks toward achieving
project objectives. As they gain experience, their risk identification and
management capabilities increase. By applying classification techniques from
i ge of previous modelers has
been captured in a classification scheme for system dynamics modeling risks.
The classification scheme allows modelers to more efficiently and effectively
consider modeling risks by reducing the variation in their knowledge levels.
The classification structure is focused on the steps of the system dynamics

deli dology and the achi of system ki and
improvement objectives. As part of a broader modeling risk management
approach, the risk classification scheme assists modelers in identifying and
prioritizing the anticipated sources of modeling risks for a project. With that
knowledge, they can more effectively identify the appropriate techniques for
managing risks and then efficiently apply those techniques in a timely
fashion through the entire project cycle.

the k

The Complexity Challenge: A Case for Model-
based Management

The purpose of this paper is to present a case study which illuminates the role
of dy-namic models as enablers of better general management in the face of
complexity. That role is usually accounted for either by the logic of the
models or by the process of building them, namely in group model-building.
Here, the relationship and interaction of the two, model logic with modeling
process, is considered. We maintain that the conceptual understanding of
managers is the crucial lever for better management. Our focus is on the role
of models in improving such understanding. The empirical base and object of
reflection is a large case study from an ultra-complex firm, where a model
building and training venture was carried out. The main concern which aimed
the project was to facilitate the ability of managers to cope with complexity
and to enable effective organizational change. The venture enhanced both the
systemic view and awareness among participants of the project, and therefore
proved to be a good investment in management quality. In essence, it was an
impor-tant move toward model-based management. A core group had been
captivated by the power of systemic thinking in general and the use of
models in particular. A seed had been sown.

Effects of naive personnel policy on the value of
human capital

Strategic Human Resources Management (HRM) is a crucial factor of
companies in which knowledge plays a vital role. But Germany’s shrinking
and aging population and their effects on the labor force potential within the
next 10 to 15 years seem to be ignored by HR managers. Layoffs are still
common practice and even early retirement schemes were common a short
time ago. Supposably, managers do not have informative tools neither to

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Peter M. Senge

psenge@ mit.edu

Society for Organizational Learning
25 First St Ste 414

Cambridge MA 02141 USA

Andrew P. Jones
apjones@ sustainer.org
Sustainability Institute

8 Lynmar Avenue
Asheville NC 28804 USA

Linda Booth Sweeney
linda_booth_sweeney@ post.harvard.edu
Harvard Graduate School of Education
324 Sudbury Road

Concord MA 01742 USA

John Sterman

jsterman@ mitedu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142 USA

Juan Martin Garcia
jmg@ grn.es

Doctor Francesc Darder 18
08034 Barcelona

Spain

Stuart Sivertson
ssivert@ chartermi.net
GPIR Line Inc

1932 East Ninth Street
Duluth MN 55812

ISA

evaluate ex ante specific HR strategies nor to forecast the development of
stock and age structure of their workforce by simultaneously taking into
account the intrasystem complexity and dynamic. This case study in progress

L on the i effects of emp ion and
different recruiting policies on the value of human capital in conjunction with
a detailed aging chain. The author uses the feasible ‘Transparent Human
Capital Valuation’ approach to assess this human capital value and
implements the approach as a co-flow within the system dynamics model.
The promotion of an applicable and holistic HRM tool is both a
contemporary and overdue issue.

The Climate Bathtub Sim: An Interactive
Simulator to Teach Stock-and-Flow Mechanics of
Global Warming

Experimental studies have demonstrated that even highly educated people do
not stock dynamics. Such ions are currently
having potentially disastrous effects in the area of climate change policy,
where very few non-technical experts yet grasp that stabilizing carbon in the
atmosphere will take a massive (50-80%) reduction in emissions in the
coming decades. In order to correct such misunderstandings and to support a
more grounded public discourse on the speed and scale of response needed to
the threat of climate change, a diverse team has constructed an interactive,
online simulator for the general public that includes an animated bathtub, so
that the learner may experiment with different policy approaches to stabilize
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Although extremely simple, the aim of fostering
broad, intuitive public understanding has been neglected by more complex
climate change models. This presentation will briefly demo the "Sim" and
explore the learning theory that undergirds it and the planed series of
"freeware" climate simulators.

Thomas Fiddaman
tom@ vensim.com

Ventana Systems

1070 Bridger Woods Road
Bozeman MT 59715 USA

Michael Tempel
tempel@ new-york.sl.slb.com
Schlumberger

A Systems Dynamics Model of Fish Populations in
Western Lake Superior

Lake Superior’s fishery resources have been subject to management control
for more than a century. A goal of achieving stability of fish populations has
been elusive. Present goals stated by management authorities have been
expressed as hopes of achieving “fish- community objectives”, some of
which may be impossibly exclusive in practice. A system dynamics model of
major predator and prey fish populations of Western Lake Superior is

i and Model si ions of fish population changes

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 151

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Andrej Skraba
andrej.skraba@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor
Kidriceva Cesta 34
S1-4000 Kranj

Slovenia

Miroljub Kljajié
miroljub.kijajic@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor
Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a
S1-4000 Kranj Slovenia

Davorin Kofjac

davorin.kofjac@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Science
Kidriceva 55a

4000 Kranj Slovenia

Andrej Knaflic

andrej.knaflic@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a

4000 Kranj Slovenia

Iztok Podbregar
iztok.podbregar@ fpwv.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a

4000 Kranj Slovenia

M. Dolores Soto-Torres
lolasoto@ eco.uva.es

Universidad de Valladolid

Dpto Economia Aplicada
Avenida Valle Esgueva 6

47011 Valladolid Spain

Ramon Fernandez-Lechén
ramonfer@ eco.uva.es
Universidad de Valladolid

are to historical esti Model-implied results of alternative
management policies are explored. Experiments applying past and alternative
management policies indicate that a policy of reducing current high rates of
predator stockings together with moderately increasing predator harvestings
would contribute to long term population stability among both predator and
prey fish populations of Lake Superior.

Development of a Human Resources Transition
Simulation Model in Slovenian Armed Forces

The paper describes development of a continuous and discrete model of
human itions in a large ion. The model i
eight different ranks. The calibration of the model was performed where the
historical data was used to determine time constants of transitions and
fluctuations. Several simulation runs were performed in order to complete
predictive validation of the model. Optimization of the model was performed
in order to achieve desired structural dynamics. Pattern search algorithm was
applied at this stage while considering the key parameters’ limitations. By
performing the optimization appropriate strategy of the system structural

lop could be and comparison of the
continuous and discrete event rasa was performed. The discrete event
model was applied in the validation phase. The hybrid approach to the
problem provided higher level of confidence. System dynamics methodology
proved to be appropriate as the tool for initial development of the model and
structural validation reference.

A system dynamics model about public corruption:
the influence of bribes on economic growth

This paper builds a system dynamics model to study the impact of some
activities of public corruption on economic growth. The model is articulated
around a generic economy in which a public and a private sector take part.
The sectors produce different goods using the same available economic
resources. Both use labour and could employ different criteria for

‘ing their workers. The difference between the private and public

Facultad de Ciencias E
Avda Valle Esgueva 6
47011 Valladolid Spain

152 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

wage allows the model to justify the introduction and the persistence over
time of public corrupt activities in the economy. The causal structure collects
the decisions and the rules of behaviour of the economic agents. It reflects the

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Pedro Fernandez Soto
pedro.fernandez.soto@ es.pwe.com
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Paseo de la Castellana 43
28046 Madrid Spain

Krystyna A. Stave
aystyna.stave@ unlv.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway

Box 454030

Las Vegas NV 89154-4030 USA

Megan Hopper

mhopper83@ hotmail.com

University of Nevada Las Vegas
Department of Environmental Studies
4505 Maryland Parkway Box 454030
Las Vegas NV 89154-4030 USA

Stephanie J. Fincher
steph_fincher@ hotmail.com
University of Nevada Las Vegas
7904 Canyon Grove Ct

Las Vegas NV 89131 USA

Katherine Steel
ksteel@ mit.edu

MIT

16 River Street #5
Boston MA 02108
USA

Craig A. Stephens
craig.stephens@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group

One Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

normal economic activities and the interactions between them and the new
causal relationships arising from the corruption activities. The feedback
processes totally explains why corruption modifies both the public and
private production as well as the wealth of some citizens. After formulating
the decision rules of the economic agents, calibrating the values of the
parameters and the initial conditions of the levels, a simulation exercise is
carried out to characterize the growth attained by the economy under
different scenarios taking into account different degrees of corruption and
different ways for fighting against it.

What Constitutes Systems Thinking? A review of
practitioner views

As we approach the 50th Anniversary of System Dynamics, researchers and
practitioners have yet to reach a consensus on the components of systems
thinking or a method for measuring systems thinking in individuals. This
paper reviews the state of thinking about systems thinking and researcher
Tepotts of offons to assess systems thinking. As the foundation for

i ‘k to be able to determine an individual’s
level of aeotein thinking, we present a review of the literature and the results
of a survey administered to participants at the 2006 Systems Thinking and
Dynamic Modeling for K-12 Confe in Marlboro, \

The Choice Between Grid and Off-grid
Electrification in Kenya and its Impact on System
Development

This paper explores the dynamics of the development of grid-based
electrification compared to off-grid electrification in Kenya. Consumers in
Kenya who can afford to use electricity must choose to be connected to the
national grid or to purchase a standalone system (usually diesel or
photovoltaic generators). This decision is based not on price alone, but on the
relative availability and reliability of the options. Although competition
usually spurs growth, in this case it appears that the presence of strong off-
grid choices may be hindering the development of the grid. If this is the true,
energy planners might need to consider policy options which encourage the
grid and off-grid markets to work as complements.

The Value of System Dynamics in the Wider

World: an Outside-In View
System Dynamics is no longer new, but its impact on the wider world is still

quite immature. Newer technologies have been taken up much faster and
more broadly, bringing about huge societal changes. Is System Dynamics

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 153

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Hendrik Stouten

stouten_h@ hotmail.com

Institute for Agriculture & Fisheries
Petunialaan 32

B-8400 Ostend

Belgium

Kris Van Craeynest
kris.vancraeynest@ ilvo.vlaanderen.be
ILVO

Ankerstraat 1

B-8400 Ostend

Belgium

Aime Heene

aime heene@ Ugent.be
Ghent University
Hoveniersberg 24
9000 Gent

Belgium

Xavier Gellynek
xavier.gellynck@ ugent.be

Ghent University

Dept of Agricultural Economics
Coupure Links 653

B-9000 Ghent Belgium

Jiirgen Strohhecker
j.strohhecker@ frankfurt-school.de

Frankfurt School of Finance and Manage
Sonnemannstrasse 9-11

D-60314 Frankfurt am Main

Germany

154 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

fundamentally different, and do essential characteristics necessarily restrict it
to narrower impacts and a slower rate of diffusion? The answers lie in
innovation. This paper describes how innovation by practitioners will
profoundly change the practice of System Dynamics and its societal impact.

A preliminary microworld to gain insights in
Belgian fishery fleet dynamics.

The objective of this paper is to develop and evaluate a micro-economical
microworld which will allow policy makers to gain more insight in
parameters that influence the Belgian fishery fleet structure. In a later stage,
this microworld may contribute to the process of developing a long-term
strategy for the Belgian fishery sector, serving as a laboratory for ex-ante
evaluation of posmible! Strategies. (Keys, Fulmer, and Stumpf 1996; De Geus
1997) By vi and ( 1999), it generates
insights “bout fleet dynamics in response to a changing environment and
policy changes.

Jochen Depestele Bart Verschueren

jochen.depestele@ ilvo viaanderen.be bart. vlaanderen.be
ILVO ILVO

Ankerstraat 1 Ankerstraat 1

B-8400 Ostend B-8400 Ostend

Belgium Belgium

Els Vanderperren Hans Polet

els.vanderperren@ ilvo.vlaanderen.be hans.polet@ ilvo.vlaanderen.be
ILVO ILVO

Ankerstraat 1 Ankerstraat 1
B-8400 Ostend B-8400 Ostend
Belgium Belgium

Does a Balanced Scorecard Management Cockpit
Increase Strategy Implementation Performance?

In various articles and books, Kaplan and Norton maintain that use of a
Balanced Scorecard (BSC) will increase an organization's ability to execute
its strategy and therefore ultimately improve its performance. They

iate their hypothesis with cases for which they report
ee performance”. ished empirical evidence for
the BSC’s positive impact on performance i: is sparse. This article aims to
contribute to the empirical research on the BSC’s performance impact
describing a laboratory experiment. Using a computer-based feedback-rich
micro-world, the subjects were placed in a top manager position. Their task
was to implement a given strategy as best as they could, which meant to
translate strategy into operational decisions over a period of 10 years. The
experiment group was equipped with a BSC management cockpit that was
carefully tailored to the strategy, while the control group had to rely on
traditional reports as information source. The experiment data are used to test

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jeroen Struben
jjrs@ mitedu

MIT

30 Wadsworth Street
Cambridge MA 02142
USA

Lees N. Stuntz
stuntzin@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
27 Central Street

Acton MA 01720

USA

Debra A. Lyneis

lyneisd@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
PO Box 121

215 Landgrove Road
Weston VT 05161 USA

the hypothesis that subjects provided with the BSC cockpit perform better
than the control group. Statistical analysis shows that this hypothesis could
not be rejected. The BSC cockpit indeed had a positive impact on
performance. Some possible explanations for this finding are discussed and
issues for further research are outlined.

From stylized facts to multiple mechanisms:
diffusion analysis of past and present alternative
fuel introductions

Contrary to S-curve diffusion theory, historical introductions of alternative
transportation fuels (ATFs) exhibit a variety of adoption patterns. Anal
ATF introductions in the market place of natural gas in Argentina and New
Zealand and ethanol in Brazil reveals that the aggregate dynamics cannot be
traced back to a single dominant mechanism of change. ATF diffusion

of

bodies several the Pp of
the vehicle installed base, consumer preferences and driver behavior, the
of technology and ities, such as a fueling

infrastructure, and the transformation of fuel and automotive supply chains.
Further, their diffusion is conditioned by institutional contexts. A behavioral
dynamic model with a broad system boundary helps understanding failures
and successes of ATF diffusion. While successful diffusion, such as promised
by the Brazil case, is possible, the analysis reveals complex dynamics,
requiring long periods of commitment and coordination across various types
of actors. The paper develops initial steps towards a framework for studying
the rich dynamics of socio-technical systems change. Central in such a

process based fi ‘k are the I within interor
fields, capturing decisions and actions from consumers, organizations across
industries and policy and i the system-ph ical aspects.

We discuss implications for policy and strategy.

System Dynamics in K-12 Education: Lessons
Learned

Fifteen years ago, Jay Forrester laid the cornerstones for a more effective
kindergarten through 12th grade (K-12) education based on system dynamics.
In this paper, teachers and other educators who have been implementing
system dynamics and systems thinking in schools across the United States
reflect on their progress. Although all of the educators have been encouraged
and inspired by student engagement and insight using system dynamics in
their classrooms, wider adoption has encountered obstacles. Strategies to
overcome them include: improving the quality and quantity of system
dynamics curriculum materials and training opportunities for teachers,
integrating the use of systems thinking tools with system dynamics
simulation to give students the full benefit of both, seeking ways to work
within the K-12 institution to effect change, and working together to learn
from successes and mistakes.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 155

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Derek R. Supple
dsupple@ mit.edu

MIT

25 Laurel St
Somerville MA 02143
USA

Finn Olay Sveen
fosveen@ tecnun.es

Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia San Sebastian
Gipuzkoa

Spain

Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegui@ tecnun.es

Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia

Spain

Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ hia.no
Agder University College

Faculty of Engineering and Science

Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway

156 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Managing the Transition toward Self-Sustaining
Alternative Fuel Vehicle Markets: Policy Analysis
Using a Dynamic Model

Designing public policy and industry strategy to bolster the transition to
alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) is a formidable challenge as demonstrated by
historical failed attempts. The transition occurs within a complex system with
many distributed actors, long time delays, several feedback relationships, and
multiple tipping points. A broad-boundary, behavioral, dynamic model with
explicit spatial structure was previously developed to represent the most
important AFV transition barriers. In this work, the integrated model is
parameterized for various vehicle platforms. Structural and parametric
sensitivity analyses are used to build understanding of system behavior and to
identify policy leverage points. The qualitative impacts of policies are tested
individually and then in combinations to find synergies. Under plausible
assumptions and strong policies, successful AFV diffusion can occur but
requires several decades. Findings indicate that some commonly suggested
policies provide little leverage and are quite costly. The anal:
demonstrates the importance of designing policy cognizant of the system
structure underlying its dynamic behavior. To reach a self-sustaining market,
coordinated portfolios of policy instruments must simultaneously foster the

of familiarity, well-distributed fueling infrastructure,
and vehicle manufacturer knowledge at similar rates and over long enough
duration to surpass thresholds in these complementary assets.

Incident Learning Systems: From Safety to Security

The complexity of modern networked systems has negative consequences in
the form of intended and unintended security incidents. Information security
is not the first field to grapple with such challenges. In safety, incident
learning systems (ILS) have been used to control high risk environments.
Many of these systems, such as NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System,
have demonstrated considerable success while others have failed. Prior to
implementing ILS in information security, it is prudent to learn from
experiences gained in safety. We use System Dynamics to investigate how
factors such as ives, recriminations and
resources affect a safety incident learning system. We find that the rate of
incidents is not a suitable indicator of the state of the system. An increasing
or decreasing incident rate may both be caused by either increased or
decreased security. Other indicators, such as the severity of incidents, should
be used.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Burcu Tan
burcu.tan@ phd.mccombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas at Austin

McCombs School of Business IROM Dept

1 University Sta B6000
Austin TX 78712-0201 USA

Edward G. Anderson
edward.anderson@ mecombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas

McCombs School of Business IROM Dept

1 University Station B6500
Austin TX 78712 USA

Geoffrey Parker

gparker@ tulane.edu

Tulane University

Entergy Tulane Energy Institute
9 McAlister Dr

New Orleans LA 70118 USA

Anas Tawileh

anas@ tawileh.net

Cardiff University

School of Computer Science

5 The Parade Queen's Buildings
Cardiff CF24 3AA Wales UK

Stephen B. McIntosh

sbm@ cs.cfac.uk

Cardiff University

Brynrhug Farm Cwmdu Road
Maesteg Midglamorgan CF34 ODL
UK

Anas Tawileh

anas@ tawileh.net

Cardiff University

School of Computer Science

5 The Parade Queen's Buildings
Cardiff CF24 3AA Wales UK

Stephen B. McIntosh

sbm@ cs.cf.ac.uk

Cardiff University

Brynrhug Farm Cwmdu Road
Maesteg Midglamorgan CF34 ODL Uk

Managing Risk in Alternative Energy Product
Development

We will explore how to value using modern financial techniques the
development of new alternative energy technologies (AETs) given
uncertainty. Uncertainty in developing AETs derives from: (1) the reduction
in installation cost of new generation capacity as experience with the
technology is gained, i.e. the learning curve (2) oil and natural gas price
cycles; and (3) other macroeconomic and geopolitical forces, particularly the
behavior of national oil companies (Aramco, PDVSA, PEMEX, etc.).
Evaluating a new AET properly requires representing these uncertainties as
well as an investment valuation approach that works well under high
uncertainty. In particular, we propose to adapt the real options methodology
to value the potential return from developing AETs using stochastic system
dynamics models representing the uncertainty in both the learning curve and
the fossil fuel price cycles.

Network Bandwidth Estimation: A System
Dynamics Approach

In this paper, we propose a new approach to network bandwidth estimation
based on System Dynamics modelling. The paper discusses existing
approaches to bandwidth estimation and network capacity planning.
Limitations of these app are p and the case for using System
Dynamics is made. Applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated
through a real world network planning project for a distributed logistics

ion. A practical Ip model was developed to predict
bandwidth requirements for the project’s network. This model provides
system planners with the ability to test different possible scenarios in order to
make informed decisions about the system architecture. We show through
practical results of the simulation runs and the insights gained during the
process that the System Dynamics approach offers an effective solution to the
problem of network bandwidth estimation and system planning. The paper
concludes with a review of the results and pointers for further research.

The Dynamics of Software Testing

In the modern information based society, failure of software systems can
have significant consequences. It has been argued that increased attention to
testing activities during the software development process can mitigate the
probabilities of system failure after implementation. However, in order to
justify ini testing, the ic impacts of improper
testing should be identified. In this paper, we propose a systematic approach
to the evaluation of the economic impacts of software testing. The main
factors affecting software testing are identified, and a computer simulation
model is developed to investigate different testing scenarios. Usefulness of

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 157

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Brent Work

b.work@ cs.cf.ac.uk

Cardiff University

School of Computer Science

5 The Parade Queen's Buildings
Cardiff CF24 3AA Wales UK.

W.K. Ivins

wkivins@ cs.cfac.uk

Cardiff University

School of Computer Science

5 The Parade Queen's Buildings
Cardiff CF24 3AA Wales UK

Ivan Taylor

taylor.iw@ forces.gc.ca

Dept of National Defence
DRDC CORA

NDHQ 101 Colonel By Drive
Ottawa ON K1A 0K2 Canada

Luminita Stemate
luminita.stemate@ drdc-rdde.ge.ca
Defence Research and Development
Valcartier

Quebec City Quebec G3J 1X5 Canada

Codrin Pasca

codrinp@ hotmail.com

Defence Research and Development
c\o Luminita Stemate

Valcartier

Quebec City Quebec G3J 1X5 Canada

Soni Desai

s7a7d7@ yahoo.ca

National Defence Headquarters.
c/o Ivan Taylor

Operational Research and Analysis
Ottawa Ontario K1A 0K2 Canada

Timothy R.B. Taylor

xftu@ tamu.edu

Texas A&M University

Zachry Department of Civil Engineering
709E CE/TTI Tower

College Station TX 77843-3136 USA

David N. Ford

davidford@ tamu.edu

Texas A&M University

Dept Civil Engineering Mailstop 3136
College Station TX 77843-3136 USA

158 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

the approach is through several y
simulations. The results prove the utility of the System Dynamics modelling
approach in building better understanding of the impact of software testing.
icati for software d practiti a
of software products and software support organisations are also discussed.

customer

Using Feedback to Conduct Crowd Control

Crowd Control is a function generally associated with the police more than
the military. However, the Canadian Forces are occasionally asked to
intervene in riot situations either in Canada, in support to Federal, Provincial
and Municipal Governments, or overseas, during Coalition operations. Thus,
there is a need to understand crowd behaviour and to determine optimal
intervention strategies for crowd control. The Canadian Forces have skills
and resources that might be called upon if a situation gets out of control and
must be prepared to deploy on short notice. A model has been developed that
can be used to understand these events in the time dimension both inside the
event and from event to event. The model has been developed theoretically
and “face validated” using data from two case studies. The model is required
to evaluate appropriate tactics such as the employment of non-lethal
weapons, and as a training simulator for strategic and tactical commanders.

Project Controls to Minimize Cost and Schedule
Overruns: A Model, Research Agenda, and Initial
Results

System dynamics has been successfully applied to the study of projects for
many years. While this modeling has clearly defined the structures which
create project dynamics, it has been less helpful in providing explicit policy
advice to managers. To address this gap, we examine the effectiveness of
three common project controls available to project managers to address
deviations in project performance; (1) exerting pressure on project staff to
work faster, (2) having staff work overtime, and/or (3) hiring additional staff.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

James M. Lyneis

jmlyneis@ verizon.net

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
PO Box 121

215 Landgrove Road

Weston VT 05161 USA

Timothy R.B. Taylor
xftu@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University

Zachry Department of Civil Engineering

709E CE/TTI Tower
College Station TX 77843-3136
USA

David N. Ford

davidford@ tamu.edu

Texas A&M University

Dept Civil Engineering Mailstop 3136
College Station TX 77843-3136

USA

Andrew Ford

forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
Environmental Science

PO Box 644430

Pullman WA 99164-4430
USA

Claudio Tebaldi
claudio.tebaldi@ polito.it
Politecnico of Torino
Department of Mathematics
Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24
10129 Torino Italy

Giorgio Colacchio
giorgio.colacchio@ ateneo.unile.it
University of Salento

Faculty of Law

Via Monteroni SN Centro Ecotekne
73100 Lecce Italy

While the three project controls can have short-term benefits for project
performance, their long-term impacts can be detrimental. The current work
presents preliminary results of the research, focusing on the impacts of the
three project controls on project rework and schedule performance. The work
describes the development of project control feedback structures, the initial
testing and use of a formal system dynamics model of the system, and
preliminary results. The work concludes with a description of future project
research efforts.

Model Analysis Using Statistical Screening:
Extensions and Example Applications

System dynamics models are often constructed to improve system
performance by identifying and modifying feedback mechanisms that drive
system behavior. Once identified, these feedback mechanisms can be used to
design and test policies for system performance improvement. A preliminary
step in developing policies is the identification of high leverage parameters
and structures, the influential model sections that drive system behavior. The
current work clarifies and extends the use of statistical screening (Ford and
Flynn, 2005) as a model analysis tool with a six step process that identifies
specific model sections for further analysis and development. The work also
presents a method that clarifies the results of model analysis with statistical
screening to practicing managers Statistical screening offers system
dynamicists a user-friendly tool that can be used to help explain how model
structure drives system behavior.

Chaotic Behavior in a Modified Goodwin's Growth
Cycle Model

Goodwin’s “A Growth Cycle” [1967] rep amil in the li
modeling of economic dynamics. In terms of the two variables “wage share”
and “employment rate” and on the basis of few simple assumptions, the
Goodwin Model (GM) is formulated exactly as the well-known Lotka-
Volterra system, with all the limits of such system, in particular the lacking
of structural stability. A number of extensions have been proposed with the
aim to make the model more robust. We propose a new extension that: a)
removes the limiting hypothesis of “Harrod-neutral” technical progress: b) on
the line of Lotka-Volterra models with adaptation, introduces the concept of
“memory”, which certainly plays a relevant role in the dynamics of economic
systems. As a consequence an additional equation appears, the validity of the
model is substantially extended and a rich phenomenology is obtained, in
particular transition to chaotic behavior via period-doubling bifurcations.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 159

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Kate J. Thompson
k thompson@ edfac.usyd.edu.au
University of Sydney
Building A35

Sydney 2006

Australia

Peter Reimann

p.reimann@ edfac.usyd.edu.au
University of Sydney

Building A35

Faculty of Education and Social Work
Sydney 2006

Australia

Fang Tian
selenetian@ gmail.com
Tsinghua University
Dept of Automation
Room 307 Building 35

Beijing

China

Warren W. Tignor
wtignor@ ieee.org

SAIC

472 Cornwall Court
Severna Park MD 21146
USA

160 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Do school students learn more about the
environment from a system dynamics model by
themselves or with a partner?

As part of the first author’s PhD project, year 9 and 10 students were given a
system dynamics model of the impacts of visitors on a National Park. The
students were given a pre- and post-test to determine whether their
knowledge of the environment changed. Students were randomly assigned to
either the individual learning condition (students interrogated the model as

i s) or the ive learning ition (students interrogated the
model with one other student). There was a significant increase in the
environmental knowledge score for those students in the collaborative
learning condition, but not in the individual learning condition. The
implications of this finding for the use of system dynamics models in
educational settings are discussed.

A Research on Systems Thinking Based on Three
Dimensions Thought

Nowadays, the performance measurement system has been well developed.
And the relations between these performance measures are playing important
roles in management science. However, the effective method to analyze these
relations is still underdeveloped and attracts more and more concerns. After
reviewing relevant research, by adopting and further extending the essential
theories of Systems Thinking, we propose a three-dimensional Systems
Thinking to achieve better analysis, control and decision-making. In this
paper, the rationality of the three-dimensional thought is proved first, and the
modelling method is then provided in theory. Finally, a manufacturing
enterprise is illustrated as an example for practical implementation.

System Dynami

: Publication Metrics (2000-2005)

System Dynamics (SD) would like to increase its influence and promote its

ional approach to und ding and solving significant problems.
This paper attempts to capture a snapshot of SD research topics, and
publications 2000-2005 as a metric of the scope of SD domains and
publication venues. The questions addressed by this paper follow: What are
the frequently published topics? What may be the emerging topics? Where do
SD authors frequently publish? To this end, 35, 920,686 documents were
search. Of the total, 935 met the search criteria. After review and analysis of
the 935 documents, only 302 qualified as relevant SD material for further
analysis.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jeff W. Trailer

jtrailer@ csuchico.edu

California State University Chico
Department of Management
Chico CA 95929-0031

Keyvan Vakili

keyvanv@ gmail.com

Sharif University of Technology
Sth floor No 161 Shahid Akbari St
Seyd Jamaleddine Asadabadi Ave
Tehran Iran

Mohammad Taghi Isaai
isaai@ sharif.edu

Sharif University of Technology
Graduate School of Mgt and E

The Problem of Delayed Discharge in Labor and
Delivery

Enloe Medical Center is a non-profit community hospital in Chico,
California. Among the many services they provide is a Labor and Delivery
Department. While mothers are routinely admitted from 1:00pm to 1:00am,
they are generally discharged between 10:00am and 5:00pm. This results in a
generic bell curve behavior pattern for patient occupancy during the daytime.
Hospitals are reimbursed for inpatient services in two major ways: either on a
per diem basis, or by diagnosis related groups (DRG). Either way, the
revenue to the hospital remains the same, regardless if the patient is
discharged at 4:00am or 4:00pm. In California, state mandated nurse to
patient ratios require hospitals to maintain a minimum level of nurse staffing
for inpatient services. Thus, as the patient census rises during the day, so
must the number of nurses on staff. This is the problem studied; costs
expended for patient discharge delays.

A System Dynamics Approach to Strategic
Assessment of Transportation Demand
Management Policies: Tehran Case Study

Transportation Demand Management has proved efficacious where

increasing transportation supply seems ineffective or financially infeasible.
Demand management comprises a wide range of policies most of which are
different in nature. Assessing impact of various strategies in Transportation

Azadi Ave
Tehran Iran

Arash Jalali Barsari

a jalalibarsari@ gmail.com

University of Science and Research
Sth floor No 161 Shahid Akbari St
Seyd Jamaleddine Asadabadi Ave
Tehran Iran

Erik van Zijderveld
erik vanzijderveld@ tno.nl
TNO

PO Box 96864

2509 JG The Hague

The Netherlands

Demand and d ping a system dynamic model to compare
diverse policies are the main outcome of this study. Investigating impact of
TDM strategies in Tehran and their impotence specifically in encouraging
private vehicle users to use public transportation is the focus of this paper.
Visualizing prospective changes in share of these different modes of
transportation and presenting potential strategies towards achieving TDM
goals are included to substantiate effectiveness of the approach.

MARVEL - principles of a method for semi-
qualitative system behaviour and policy analysis

Obtaining insight into the effects of policy interventions is often a difficult
matter. A new method to obtain a first insight into those effects is presented
in this paper. The basis of the method is a Causal Loop Diagram to which
information on causal relations and variables is added. Part of the information
is expressed in qualitative terms. This Method to Analyse Relations between
Variables using Enriched Loops (MARVEL) takes proposed interventions as
a starting point. Interventions are interpreted as imposed changes on selected
model variables representing intervention points. A new feature is that causal
relations are no longer passive but active model elements. They propagate the

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 161

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Hoda Vaziri

hoda_vaziri@ yahoo.com

Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Ave

11365 Tehran

Tran

Mohammad Akbarpour
mohamwad@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology

10 4th Andishe Alley Andishe St 2nd Fl

Shahid Beheshti Ave
Tehran Iran

Margarita Vazquez
myvazquez@ ull.es

Universidad de La Laguna
Facultad de Filosofia

Campus de Guajara

38201 La Laguna Tenerife Spain

Manuel Liz

manuli2@ ull.es
Universidad de La Laguna
Facultad de Filosofia
Campus de Guajara

La Laguna Tenerife Spain

John J. Voyer

voyer@ usm.maine.edu

University of Southern Maine
School of Business

96 Falmouth Street PO Box 9300
Portland ME 04104-9300 USA

162 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

changes through the model in a time-dispersed way. MARVEL determines
how this causes (other) variables representing the model’s performance to
change in the desired direction at selected moments in time. MARVEL can
be used for policy development, policy analysis and policy evaluation
problems.

An investigation into Electricity Subsidy Dynamics
by a System Dynamics Approach

After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran had to face another challenge: the
war against Iraq. This challenge forced the government to help people by
granting subsidy to essential goods such as bread, drugs and different kinds
of energy - especially electric power which is one of the major industries in
every country. This policy helped people have an easier life during the war,
but as the famous law of supply — demand tells us, the lower the price of any
good, the higher demand for that good is predicted and this low price of
energy made Iran one of the most and worst energy consumers in the world.
This high rate of consumption will cause lots of problems such as lack of
electricity and financial pressure on the government. In this paper, a system
dynamics model is developed to simulate the situations of Iran’s electric
power industry since 15 years ago, assuming the effect of people’s pressure
on the government and the pressure of the government to decrease subsidy.
The main model is built on two positive and negative loops and the results
are compared with the real statistics. Then, two policies are applied to the
model: education and increasing the price.

System Dynamics and Philosophy. A constructivist
and expressivist approach.

Theoretical reflections about System Dynamics (SD) have usually been
grounded in the developments of what can be called “general philosophy of
science”. In our paper, a philosophical approach more sensitive to the
peculiarities of SD is proposed that is closely linked to the recent
constructivist proposal of John Searle and to the expressivist theses of Robert
Brandom. We will focus on three very important conceptual problems —the
ontological problem of realism concerning the structures postulated by SD
models, the epi ical problem of the ‘y power of SD models,
and the methodological charge of merely producing a kind of “patchwork”
when building of SD models--, arguing that by combining the constructivist
and pi of those authors in a certain way
would offer a better understanding of scientific and technical activities such
as SD modelling.

A System Dynamics Approach to Improving An
Advising System for Business School
Undergraduates
A School of Business located in the northeast United States annually

administers the AACSB/EBI Undergraduate Business Exit Survey to all its
graduating seniors. One area that has consistently received low marks has

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Susan Bassi Brown
University of Southern Maine

Nathan Gage
University of Southern Maine

Dmitry Kovalenko
University of Southern Maine

Travis Williams
University of Southern Maine

Khaled Wahba

khaled. wahba@ riti.org

Cairo University

Regional IT Institute

IIA Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211 Egypt

Khaled Wahba
khaled.wahba@ riti.org

Cairo University

Regional IT Institute

11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211 Egypt

been advising. The Associate Dean of the Business School wanted to address
the situation and see how the system could be improved. Through interviews
with the Associate Dean and the advising staff, a consulting team compiled
information about the system and identified the major problem as congestion
in the system. Recommendations included changing the criteria for students
required to use the system, simplifying the curriculum, better promoting the
advising function to students, increasing the use of automated advising tools,
expanding the length of the advising period, and adding advising staff or
having faculty do advising. So far, the School of Business has adopted only
one of these recommendations—curricular simplification—which may
improve the situation as time passes. The School is currently examining other
options, especially changing the criteria for required advising and having the
faculty get involved in advising.

Leukemia Dynamics: Understanding the
Mechanism of Stem Cell Transplant for the
Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (CML) Treatment

Leukemia progresses through certain phases starting with slow progressing
phases, following in the stability, than transition to acute phase, where there
is no more control on the disease. The types of leukemia are grouped by how
quickly the disease develops and gets worse. Leukemia is either chronic (gets
worse slowly) or acute (gets worse quickly). Treatment depends on a number
of factors, including the type of leukemia, the patient’s age, whether
leukemia cells are present in the cerebrospinal fluid, and whether the
leukemia has been treated before. It also may depend on certain features of
the leukemia cells. Depending on the type and extent of the disease, patients
may have chemotherapy, biological therapy, radiation therapy, or bone
marrow transplantation. The objective of the current research is to address the
dynamics of Leukemia’s development with the attempts to understand how
does the body respond to different type of treatment.

Leukemia Dynamics:The Role of the Immune
System against Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia
(CML)

Nowadays, the definite cause of leukemia is still a mystery, certain factors
are known to increase the risk of developing the disease like radiations and
other factors. There is no way to predict or prevent leukemia. The types of
leukemia are grouped by how quickly the disease develops and gets worse.
Leukemia is either chronic (gets worse slowly) or acute (gets worse quickly).
There is an abundance of evidence that the immune system plays a critical
role in the control of (Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia) CML but the exact
mechanism of action remains unclear A mathematical model for the human
immune system’s response to CML in a hypothetical patient will be proposed
with the purpose to help identify promising directions for experimental
research on treatments for patients with CML.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 163

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Wayne Wakeland
wwakeland@ gmail.com

Portland State University

Systems Science Program (SYSC)
PO Box 751

Portland OR 97207 USA

Wei Yang Wang

wyang@ cc.kuas.edu.tw

National Kaohsiung Univ of Applied Sci
415 Chien-Kung Road

807 Kaohsiung

Taiwan

Ya-tsai Tseng

ytiseng@ thu.edu.tw

Tunghai University

Dept of Business Administration
407 Taichung

Taiwan

Kim D. Warren

kwarren@ london.edu

London Business School
Strategy Dynamics Solutions Ltd
131-151 Gt Titchfield Street
London W1W SBB UK

164 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Modeling Fishery Regulation & Compliance: A
Case Study of the Yellowtail Rockfish

Motivated by declining fish populations and the apparent inability of
regulatory agencies to manage important fisheries, this research measures the
accuracy of a fishery model that explicitly models the regulatory process and
the resulting degree of compliance by fishers. The method involved careful
review and enhancement of a prior model with a more limited regulatory sub
model,and then measuring, for both models, the mean absolute error of model
calculated values for historical s ig biomass, biological
catch, and harvest. The most recent five 3 years of data were held back so that
model prediction error could also be computed. Results indicated that
although the fitness error for the enhanced model was significantly less than
the prior model (23% vs. 38%), predictions were improved only for one of
the three The impli for seeking to end

model fishery management processes are sobering. Policy makers on the
other hand will likely see the results as support for their instinctual
skepticism regarding policy models.

Window of Opportunity to Grow in Internet
Economics: Explore the Growth Dynamics of
Taiwan’s Online Game Industry

In this paper, we use the system dynamics approach to build up a model
about the growth dynamics of online game industry in Taiwan. With the
system dynamics model, it is found that there once existed a short period
time, which is referred to as "the window of opportunity" in this paper, for
Taiwan’s domestic online game industry to grow. The window of opportunity
was shortly open when Taiwan's online game market started to grow.
However, insufficient R&D capability and time delays in expanding R&D
capacity and game development process led to the waste of the market
opportunity. The market as a whole got saturated so quickly that agents,
potential industrial entrants, and off-line games providers are no longer
interested in developing domestic online games. To system dynamist, the
analysis of temporal equilibrium between different sets of forces, instead of
analyzing individual loop gain, can be an interesting direction for system re-
design and improvement.

Standard Business Architectures for Engaging
Management

System dynamics professionals have sought ‘standard’ models for tackling
business issues. Finding similar structures in different contexts encourages
the idea that modelling efficiency would increase if it could start with part-
built models. On the other hand, since each situation is unique, modelling

should arguably start with an open mind and develop a structure specific to

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Kim D. Warren

kwarren@ london.edu

London Business School
Strategy Dynamics Solutions Ltd
131-151 Gt Titchfield Street
London W1W SBB UK

Lars Weber

lars.weber@ tu-cottbus.de

Brandenburg Univ of Technology Cottbus
Lieberoser Str 7A

03046 Cottbus

Germany

that situation to avoid the risk of imposing an inappropriate diagnosis and
solution. Nevertheless, organisations of similar types consist of similar stocks
of resources — e.g. retailers have stores, consumers and products, consulting
firms have clients and fessi staff. Me -, those often go
through recognised stages of development and relate to each other in standard
ways. These common resources and structures provide a robust foundation
for models, and enable discussion to move on quickly to investigating why
resources are being won or lost, discovering feedback effects whose
existence is supported by evidence, and solving the real challenges. This has
the further advantage of leaving a model of how an organisation functions
that can remain valid (with continuous development) into the future. This
poster session will illustrate a number of such common business architectures
and their use.

Connecting System Dynamics with Management
Disciplines and Methods

System i i see i ly greater scope for the
adoption of their method i in many fields than has been achieved to date, and
regularly debate how faster adoption might be achieved. Successful
interventions seem to depend on recognising the frames-of-mind already
shared by the target audience and building on those, rather than portraying
system d: ics solutions as fu ly different — and by implication
‘better’. These considerations certainly apply in the management field, where
system i i to struggle for i amongst acad
consultants and ¢ executives alike. Yet strong connections can be made to
some of the i in subjects, to the analytical
methods commonly deployed, and to standard problem-solving procedures.
Making these connections explicit might allow system dynamics practitioners
to ‘start from the same place’ when engaging with business academics and
practitioners, and thus raise the method’s profile and adoption.

Understanding Recent Developments in Growth
Theory

The growth theory has, through the so-called ‘endogenous’ or new growth
theory, taken on decisive impulses. This contribution delivers an overview of
the various extensions without going into detail about the mathematical
observations and the main focus on supply-side orientated approaches. The
main goals of the growth theory are to understand the exponential climb of
the population’s income or also the per&#8209;capita income and to draw
conclusions for policy makers. The paper uses stock-flow-graphs to visualize
the major loops. Because changes tend to be incremental I adopt standard
textbook models first. All models are used in economic teaching with
dditional simul and i Later on students learn to modify those

models.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 165

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Henry Birdseye Weil
weilco@ compuserve.com

MIT

Sloan School of Management

50 Memorial Drive Room E52-541
Cambridge MA 02142-1347 USA

Christian Weitert
cweitert@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
University of Mannheim
Schloss

68131 Mannheim

Germany

David Wheat
dwheat@ wheatresources.com
University of Bergen
Nedre Fjellsmug 6

5018 Bergen

Norway

Application of System Dynamics to Corporate
Strategy: An Evolution of Issues and Frameworks

This paper discusses five landmark projects which highlighted issues and
produced frameworks that became important building blocks in the
application of System Dynamics to corporate strategy. The early models were
primarily at the level of the firm. The first model described in the paper
captures the tension among conflicting performance objectives and shows
how the conflicts impact mid-term company performance. The second model
represents the behavior of an R&D organization as it responds to changing
pressures and direction from corporate management. Over time the focus
shifted to market behavior and competition. The third model explains
powerful long-term ics that lead to" ditization" of products and
services. Recent work analyzed the social dynamics of markets, e.g., as they
affect innovation and technology substitution. The fourth model in the paper

the ics of innovative industries, building on an
extensive body of research and publications. The final model focuses on the
market impacts of social factors, e.g., trust, fashion, the characteristics of lead
users, how trends are perceived and extrapolated, the flow of information,
bandwagon effects, and network effects. The most important lessons are
about the critical roles of i social, and ps ical factors in
important business decisions and competitive behaviors.

Analysis of Investor Behavior in an Artificial Stock
Market

Building upon previous work in the field of behavioral finance and artificial
stock markets, a model i P discrete and i interrelations is
developed. Three different investor types are modeled as individual agents:
fundamental analysts, technical analysts and noise traders. They differ in
their intrinsic pricing mechanism and represent trading strategies that are
observed in financial markets. The developed structure is able to reproduce
the formation of speculative bubbles and other stochastical anomalies that are
characteristic for financial time series.

The Feedback Method of Teaching
Macroeconomics: Is it Effective?

The conventional method of teaching macroeconomics to undergraduates
relies on static graphs, an approach with documented pedagogical problems.
In contrast, the feedback method uses feedback loop diagrams and interactive
computer simulation models. This paper describes the feedback method and
reports on four experiments designed to test its effectiveness. Two
experiments examined student preferences for methods of learning
macroeconomics; for example, using static graphs or a feedback loop
diagram. The experimental designs were quite different, but the results were
the same—a significant majority preferred the feedback method. The most
commonly cited reason: feedback loops enable students to visualize an
economic process. The third and fourth experiments addressed the

166 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jason M. Wilks
jason_wilks@ pioj.gov.jm
Planning Institute of Jamaica
10-16 Grenada Way
Kingston 5

Jamaica

Weishuang Qu
Millennium Institute

2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650

Arlington VA 22201-3357
USA

Matteo Pedercini
matteois@ hotmail.com
Millennium Institute

2200 Wilson Blvd Ste 650
Arlington VA 22201

USA

Ines Winz
i.winz@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland

Private Bag 92019 Auckland Mail Centre

Auckland 1142
New Zealand

Gary Brierley
gbrierley@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
School of Geography
Private Bag 92019
Auckland New Zealand

Ines Winz
i.winz@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland

Private Bag 92019 Auckland Mail Centre

Auckland 1142
New Zealand

performance question. In the third experiment, students showed more
understanding of GDP when they had access to a stock-and-flow feedback
diagram of the economy. In the final experiment, students using feedback
loop diagrams displayed more understanding of business cycle dynamics than
those who had access to a conventional aggregate supply and demand graph.
Teaching undergraduates to search for feedback structure in the economy and
using computer simulation to connect structure with behavior appears to be a
promising method for teaching macroeconomics.

A Dynamic Analysis of Organized Crime in
Jamaica

In March 2006, the Government of Jamaica engaged the Millennium Institute
to assist in the development of a modern planning tool with the capability to
integrate relevant sectors of the Jamaican society. An important component
of the model is the sector for organized crime behaviour in Jamaica. The
purpose of this paper is to explain the development of the organized crime
sector within the T-21 Jamaica model and demonstrate the possible utility of
system dynamics in facilitating discussions on public policy. The organized
crime sector ines the of young, Pp d males living in
impoverished, urban areas into gang members and some possible outcomes
of this behaviour. The validity of the model is tested by its ability to match
Jamaica's historical data for gang-related murders and shootings.Possible
interventions are explored with the model suggesting that social interventions
would have a more immediate impact on reducing crime rates but increased
investment in the security forces would eventually lead to an even greater
reduction in crime in the long run.

The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in
Integrated Water Resources Management

In this paper we discuss the use of system dynamics as a methodology with
which to address i complex p in water

management. Problems in regional planning and river basin management,
urban water management, flooding and irrigation exhibit important short-
term and long-term effects, and are often contentious issues with high
potential for conflict. We argue that system dynamics combined with
stakeholder involvement provides an appropriate methodology to address
these issues effectively. We trace the theoretical and practical evolution of
system dynamics in these areas over the past 40 years. From this review of
the literature and selected case studies we identify and discuss a number of
best practices and common pitfalls in applications of system dynamics.

Participatory Methods in Environmental System
Dynamics Projects

Today there is widespread agreement that participatory methods are useful if
not legally required to understand and effectively address environmental
management problems. What participatory methods should be used in which
situations and particularly how they should be applied are still insufficiently

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 167

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Gary Brierley
gbrierley@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
School of Geography
Private Bag 92019
Auckland New Zealand

Eric F. Wolstenholme
e.wolstenholme@ btinternet.com
Symmetric SD Limited

47 Rugby Road

Brighton BN1 6EB UK

David Monk

david. monk@ symmetricsd.co.uk
Symmetric SD Limited

47 Rugby Road

Brighton BNI6EB UK

David Todd

david.todd@ symmetricsd.co.uk
Symmetric SD Limited
The Grain Store

127 Gloucester Road
Brighton BN] 4AF UK

Douglas McKelvie
douglas.mckelvie@ symmetricsd.co.uk
18 James Street Flat 4

Edinburgh EH15 2DW UK

Patrick John Gillespie
patrick gillespie@ slam.nhs.uk

Lambeth Adult Integrated Mental Health

SLAM Town Hall Lambeth
London UK

Eric F. Wolstenholme
e.wolstenholme@ btinternet.com
Symmetric SD Limited

47 Rugby Road

Brighton BNI 6EB

UK

David Monk

david.monk@ symmetricsd.co.uk
Symmetric SD Limited

47 Rugby Road

Brighton BNI6EB

UK

168 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

addressed questions. There is limited understanding about the
interconnections between project purpose, participatory methods and their
application. Participation methods are often selected on the basis of
familiarity or cost considerations. We argue that these trade-offs may
compromise the potential outcomes and effectiveness of a project. To address
these shortcomings we summarise current knowledge and understanding in
the public participation literature. System dynamics projects can benefit

ially from public par ion particularly through participative
modelling. Much research effort focuses on group model building. For
projects where group model building is not a prudent choice, we suggest and
discuss alternatives.

Reallocating Mental Health Resources in the
Borough of Lambeth, London, UK

This paper describes the application of system dynamics to assist decision
making in the reallocation of resources within a specialist mental health trust
in south London. Mental health service providers are under increasing
pressure to both reduce their own costs and to move resources upstream in
mental health patient pathways to facilitate treating more people, whilst not
compromising service quality. The investigation focuses on the use of the
model to examine the case for converting an existing specialist service ward
in a mental health hospital into a ‘triage’ ward, where patients are assessed
and prioritised during a short stay for either discharge or onward admission to
a normal ward. Various policies for the transition are studied together with
the implications for those patients needing post hospital services and
relocation within the community. The model suggests that the introduction of
a triage ward could meet the strategic requirement of a 10% shift away from
institutional care and into community services. The paper includes a number
of statements from the management team involved on the benefits of system
dynamics to their thinking.

Denis O'Rourke
denis.orourke@ lambethpct.nhs.uk
Lambeth PCT

Town Hall Lambeth

London UK

The contribution of system dynamics to cost benefit
analysis

This paper presents an example of the value that system dynamics can add to
conventional cost benefit analysis. A static cost benefit analysis is described
for planning the supply of new mental health services across the UK and the
development of this analysis into a system dynamics model is explained. By
developing a bigger picture of the issue, both upstream to where patients go
after treatment and downstream from where patients originate in the labour
market, and by simulation of the enhanced vision, the dynamic cost benefit
analysis is shown to advance understanding of the issue and plans. It
questions the magnitude of the potential benefit, introduces phasing issues,
surfaces structural insights, takes account of the dynamics of the labour

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

David Todd

david.todd@ symmetricsd.co.uk
Symmetric SD Limited
The Grain Store

127 Gloucester Road
Brighton BN] 4AF UK

Kazem Yaghootkar
yaghootkar@ yahoo.com
Manchester Business School
Booth Street East Room C1
Manchester M15 6PB

UK

Lars-Uno Roos
Karlstad University
Service Research Centre
SE-651 88 Karlstad
Sweden

Kaoru Yamaguchi
kaoru3@ muratopia.org
Doshisha University

521 Minamidani Aihara

Goshiki-cho Sumoto Hyogo 656-1325

Japan

market and forces linkages between the plan and other initiatives. An overall
conclusion is that dynamic factors are often left out of cost benefit analysis
simply because they cause too much complexity for decision makers,
whereas system dynamics allows these factors to be included without
masking the clarity of the case. The paper suggests that cost benefit analysis
and system dynamics are very complimentary and should be used together in
strategic planning.

The Role of Systemic Effects on Project
Performance in Multiproject Environments

While the focus of the project management literature has been on the
management of single projects, the management of multiproject
environments is largely neglected. In this research I am focusing on
mutiproject environments which exist within a single firm (hereafter called
Alpha). Through my i igation in this i i Texplored
root causes for project inefficiencies which rather than being possible to
attribute to source within each single project boundary, are caused by the
effects which I term them systemic effects. System effects are dynamics
triggered by the complex linear , nonlinear and time delayed interaction of
large number of factors. I develop a model which explains the dynamics
through which the systemic effects deteriorate the performance of the
projects in this organization. The model is useful in creating awareness
among the managers about the lack of holistic approach i in decision making
and the effects of subopti ions in this env

Balance of Payments and Foreign Exchange
Dynamics - SD Macroeconomic Modeling (4) -

This paper tries to model a dynamic determination of foreign exchange rate
in an open macroeconomy in which goods and services are freely traded and
financial capital flows efficiently for highest returns. For this purpose it
becomes necessary to employ a new method contrary to standard methods of
dealing with a foreign sector as adjunct to macroeconomy; that is, an

duction of another as a foreign sector. Within this new
framework of open macroeconomy, transactions among domestic and foreign
sectors are handled according to the principle of accounting system dynamics
developed by the author, and the balance of payments is attained. For the
sake of simplicity of analyzing foreign exck , macro variables
such as GDP, its price level and interest rate are treated as outside
parameters. Then, eight scenarios are produced and examined to see how
exchange rate, trade balance and financial investment, etc. respond to such
outside parameters. To our surprise, expectations of foreign exchange rate
turn out to play a crucial role for destabilizing trade balance and financial
investment. The impact of official intervention on foreign exchange and a
path to default is also discussed.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 169

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jacqueline Ming-Shih Ye
jye@ sloan.mitedu

MIT

3012 Quail Run

Round Rock TX 78681

USA

Wenjun Ying
wyi062@ webmail.uib.no
University of Bergen
Fantoft Postbox 448
5075 Bergen

Norway

Jiong You

jiong.you@ gmail.com

Fudan University

Dept of Management Science
School of Management
Shanghai 200433 PR China

Qifan Wang

qfwang@ fudan.edu.cn

Fudan University

Room 1701 Building I Lane 1235
Lu Jia Bang Rd

200011 Shanghai China

Improving Maintenance Operation through
Transformational Outsourcing

Oo i i to third-party has become an
increasingly popular option for manufacturers to achieve tactical and/or
strategic objectives. Though simple in concept, maintenance outsourcing is
difficult in i ‘specially in a cost-sensitive envi . This project
examines the Full Service business under ABB Ltd to understand the key
factors that drive the success of an outsourced maintenance operation. We
present a qualitative causal loop diagram developed based on the case study
of Kinleith Pulp and Paper Mill in New Zealand. The diagram describes the
interconnections among various technical, economic, relationship, and
humanistic factors and shows how cost-cutting initiatives can frequently
undermine labor relationship and tip the plant into the vicious cycle of
reactive, expensive work practices. The model also explains how Kinleith
achieved a remarkable turnaround under ABB, yielding high performance
and significant improvements in labor relations. A case study of Tasman Pulp
and Paper Mill provides a contrasting case where success has been more
difficult. Results point to the importance of creating sufficient resources
(“slack”) to implement improvement activities and pace implementation
based on pre-existing dynamics on site.

Modeling Chinese Steel Industry

This paper uses system dynamics to represent the process of steel-making in
China on the basis of statistical data and the analysis of the current industry
structure. Simulation results include the projections of medium and long term
trends of the Chinese steel industry for the next 50 years. In particular, it
reveals the current and potential future problems in the Chinese steel

industry, includi I pollution, production structure, and
overinvestment on new capital. It is concluded that restructuring production
b ing BOF with EAF technology, i ing the usage rate of steel

iy
scrap and Chinese government’s macro control on investment on steel
industry, are feasible solutions. Unfortunately none of them can solve all the
problems in Chinese steel industry. As a consequence, it is necessary for
China to consider environmental protection and sustainable development
when boosting its economy.

Investigation of Impacts of Dynamic Concurrence
on Development Project Manageability

Shrinking cycle time with concurrent engineering can make projects more
difficult to manage. However, the extent, nature and conditions of the causal
ship between concurrence and bility are not well d.
This study uses Degree of Concurrence and Degree of Concurrence
Relationship Curvature as two measurements of dynamic concurrence based
on Process Concurrence Relationship, an improved tool for describing and
modeling concurrence, and uses the standard deviation of Process Work
Queue Acceleration as Manageability Index to model project manageability.

170 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Showing H. Young
young@ cm.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University

Department of Business Management

PO Box 59-35
Kaohsiung Taiwan

Shyh-Jane Li

d9041813@ student.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University
PO Box 59-35

Kaohsiung 804

Taiwan ROC

Yu-Ying Huang

artimas@ bm.nsysu.edu.tw

National Sun Yat-Sen University
Dept of Business Administration
Kaohsiung Taiwan

An-ho Tsai

m924011014@ student.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University
Dept of Business Management
PO Box 59-35

Kaohsiung 804

Taiwan ROC

Géneng Yiicel

g.yucel@ tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5 Room B-3-280
2628 BX Delft

The Netherlands

Yaman Barlas

ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr

Bogazici University

Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul

Turkey

Single-phase development process model is applied as a data collection tool
to investigate the causal relationship between concurrence and manageability.
Two hypotheses were developed to test the causal relationship separately
with the two different experiments - Linear and Nonlinear. The study finds a
significant inverse relationship between degree of concurrence and project

bility with linear concurrence i ip. When the concurrence
relationship was changed from linear to nonlinear the relationship became
quite unexpected. The results improve the understanding of the causal
relationship between dynamic concurrence and manageability.

Analyze word-of-mouth effect in terms of macro-
behavior: The herd behavior in Chinese market

Though world-of- ith (WOM) is a pervasive and
intriguing phenomenon, little is known on its effect in terms of macro-
behavior. The purpose of this study is to investigate the WOM effect on
macro-level marketing to explain the herd behavior of Chinese consumers.
To achieve our goal, the system dynamics was applied build a simulation
model for a popular herd behavior happening in Macao, Hong Kong, and
Taiwan, i.e., buying Portuguese custard tarts. Both micro-behavior and
macro-behavior were considered in this model and the linkage between
micro-behavior and macro-behavior was specially emphasized. The results
showed that the market of Portuguese custard tarts would crash quickly under
fast distribution of WOM and herd behavior while considering the limitation
of capacity.

Pattern-based System Design/Optimization

Despite its success and growing practitioner base, System Dynamics (SD)
still lacks a strong and rich enough support toolbox, i.e. a set of formal
mathematical tools that can support the modeler/practitioner in various stages
including model identification, calibration, behavior analysis, policy design
and sensitivity analysis. The study presented in this paper is an attempt
towards developing such a support tool that can be used for pattern-based
parameter search, which may be utilized in model identification, validation
and policy analysis stages. The tool mainly incorporates a 2D pattern
recognition algorithm and an optimization heuristic in order to search values
for selected model parameters that yield a model behavior similar to the
desired one in terms of pattern characteristics. The proposed tool is
implemented, and a series of test experiments are conducted on three sample
models in order to reveal the performance of it. Based on these experiments,

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 171

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Erich K. O. Zahn
erich.zahn@ bwi.uni-stuttgart.de
Universitat Stuttgart
Riidesheimer Str 59

68309 Mannheim

Germany

Qi Zhang

qizhang@ mitedu

MIT

550 Memorial Drive Apt 14B
Cambridge MA 02139

USA

172 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

the primary assessment about the proposed method is that its performance is
quite satisfactory and it stands as a promising automated parameter search
tool, which can be utilized even in the cases where data series representing
the desired model behavior is missing.

Strategic Modelling in a Learning Factory

Within an interdisciplinary research project on “Advanced Manufacturing
Engineering” we are currently developing a “Learning Factory” at University
of Stuttgart. This project is one of our contributions to the European initiative
“Manufuture”. So far the first version of the “Learning Factory” has been
established. One of its core elements focuses on SD-based modelling. Here
students can use simulators that deal with specific problems — like

ici side effects of p for efficiency improvement — and
allow them to conduct their own tests and policy experiments. The main
Purposes of our strategic modelling efforts are to better understand the

f

oO fe ‘ing systems and to design policies for
improving the performance of such systems. Special topics under
investigation are: - Intra- and i SUF ly chain and d
cost effects; - Win-loose versus win-win partnerships in vertical

- Co-evolution of ion costs and Pp caused by
fshoring activities; - Adaptiveness of fi ing systems

(when designed as internal and external networks). By modelling and
simulating the relationships among the different parts of investigated systems
we may identify potential problems, avoid strategic pitfalls, and take steps to
better design production systems and to improve their performance.

A Study of Diesel Vehicle Diffusion in Europe:
Calibration and Analysis of a Consumer
Acceptance and Adoption Model

While large scale diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) is widely
anticipated, the mechanisms that determine their success or failure are ill
understood. Analysis of an AFV transition model developed at MIT has
revealed that AFV diffusion dynamics are particularly sensitive to
consumers’ decisions as influenced by social exposure to AF Vs. While some
empirical research in this area exists, uncertainty in these parameters remains
high. Following principles of partial model testing in this paper we report on
research that examines the social exposure parameters. We focus on
empirical accounts of diffusion involving diesel passenger vehicles in Europe
using the historical data of diesel vehicle registrations and installed base in
six European countries - France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and United
Kingdom. To complete diffusion data sets we generate synthetic data from
1970 to 2005. Confidence interval testing for model parameters is conducted
using the bootstrapping method. The results from the calibrations yield
parameters that are in line with other marketing studies and help reduce
uncertainty in the social exposure parameters. Further, the analysis suggests
applicability of this model for alternative fuel vehicle markets and provides
further lessons for other AFV ition. We discuss chal

and avenues for further research.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Nicole Zimmermann System-Dynamical Analysis of Mutability, Rational
zimmermann.nicole@ gmail.com d Emoti 1c it t for Explaining Fail
Mannheim University an motiona: ommitment tor Explaining Failure
Industrieseminar Schloss to Change in Organizations

68131 Mannheim

Gemnany There exists a large body of literature on organizational change and on the

puzzling effect of change failure. This paper adds the often missing element
of combining several reasons for change inefficacy. These reasons for failure
to change are low systemic mutability (inertia), insufficient political, rational,
and i (resi ). Participation and dist are then
presented as one solution to the problem, relieving resistance and enhancing
employee commitment.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 173

Plenary Sessions

Santiago Arango
santiago.arango@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
System Dynamics Group
PO 7800

N-5020 Bergen

Norway

Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt

5020 Bergen

Norway

Robert Y. Cavana
bob.cavana@ vuw.ac.nz

Victoria University of Wellington
PO Box 600

Wellington

New Zealand

Martin Tobias
martin_tobias@ moh.govt.nz
Ministry of Health

PO Box 5013
Wellington

New Zealand

Cyclical behaviour in electricity markets: an
experimental study

This paper describes a laboratory experiment to study cyclical behaviour of
electricity prices in deregulated electricity markets. We observe investment
decisions in markets with five-producers, linear demand, and constant
marginal costs. The experiment has a four year investment lag and the
electricity generating capacity has a life time of 16 years. Oscillatory
behaviour results in investment activity and prices. The cyclical tendency is
stronger than in previous experimental studies with only one and two period
investment lags. Average prices are closer to competitive equilibrium than in
previous experiments. The results are consistent with bounded rationality
theory; a simple heuristic produces fluctuations similar to those observed
when applied in a simulation model. Hence, the results corroborate
assumptions made in previous simulation studies.

Using system dynamics to analyse policy options for
tobacco control in New Zealand

This paper outlines a system dynamics model that has been developed to
assist the Ministry of Health to evaluate the dynamic consequences of
tobacco control policies in New Zealand. The model consists of 4 sectors:
population; smoking prevalences; second hand smoke; and tobacco
attributable deaths. The model is simulated for 20-30 years into the future.
The simulation package used is 'iThink', and a user interface is presented for
policy analysis. A range of illustrative scenarios are provided, including:
business as usual; fiscal strategies involving less affordable cigarettes; harm
minimisation strategies involving either less addictive cigarettes or less toxic
cigarettes; and combinations of the above policies. The main output
variables (performance measures) include current smoking prevalence,
tobacco consumption, and tobacco attibutable mortality. Finally some
concluding comments are provided and areas for future model enhancement
are identified.

174 25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Plenary Sessions continued

Nicolas Dulac

ndulac@ mitedu

MIT

77 Massachusetts Ave Room 33-407
Cambridge MA 02139

USA

Brandon D. Owens

owensbd@ mit.edu

Massachusetts Institute of Technology
77 Massachusetts Avenue, Bldg 33-407C
Cambridge MA 02139

USA

Nancy G. Leveson
leveson@ mit.edu
MIT

John Stephen Carroll
joarroll@ mitedu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
E52-563

Cambridge MA 02139

USA

Jay W. Forrester
jforestr@ mitedu

MIT

29 King Lane

Concord MA 01742-4944
USA

A Hybrid Approach to the Creation of Dynamic
Risk Management Models

Traditionally, system dynamics models are created using the “standard
method”: A problem is identified, a dynamic hypothesis is based
on causal loop diagramming and reference mode definition, a stock and flow
structure is created to test the dynamic hypothesis, and finally, insights and
potential high-leverage policies are identified based on the resulting model.
In this paper, a hybrid approach for the creation of dynamic risk

models is i duced by ining system with the
STAMP accident model. The new approach relies heavily on system
dynamics concepts and retains the essence of the “standard method”, but the
structure of the models created is linked to the STAMP safety control
structure necessary to ensure safety in the entire lifecycle of complex
engineering systems. The main steps of the hybrid method are introduced
and the similarities and differences with the standard method are
emphasized. An example is provided based on a risk management modeling
project performed for the NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate
(ESMD).

System Dynamics—the Next Fifty Years

The first 50 years of system i ished an duction to the
field, and have shown the promise of achieving a better understanding of
complex systems in nature and human affairs. Now the field is on a plateau
ready to launch the next thrust forward. We can better understand the present
status of system dynamics by comparison to professions that developed
earlier. We are now at about the same state of advancement that engineering
was when MIT first opened its doors in 1865, or that medicine was in the
late 1800s when the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine was established. We
have yet as much to learn about high-order nonlinear feedback structures
around us as those earlier professions have learned about their fields in the
last 150 years. Now is time to plan how the next 50 years can start to close
this huge knowledge gap. Like the early days in more mature professions,
we do not yet have universities devoted to four- and six-year programs. Like
them at the beginning, we do not have the equivalent programs of science
and biology in grade school education to condition the public to the
challenges and opportunities to better understand the dynamic world of
nature, politics, i change, and social
stresses. Looking into the next 50 years, we see ....

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 175

Plenary Sessions continued

James M. Lyneis
jmlyneis@ verizon.net

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
PO Box 121

215 Landgrove Road

Weston VT 05161

USA

Dennis Meadows

lataillede@ aol.com

Laboratory for Interactive Learning
PO Box 844

Durham NH 03824

USA

Hazhir Rahmandad
hazhir@ vi.edu

Virginia Tech

Northern Virginia Center Rm 430
7054 Haycock Road

Falls Church VA 22043

USA

176 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

System Dynamics Applied to Project Management:
A Survey, Assessment, and Directions for Future
Research

Some of the most Li of system d. have been in
the aren of project management. Measured in terms of number of

number of practiti ic papers, value of consulting
revenues, and value to clients, “project dynamics” stands as a model for
success in the field. This presentation reviews the history of system
dynamics work in project management, organized into three categories: (1)
typical project dynamics and the underlying structures that create those
dynamics; (2) applications of system dynamics to project management
practice — success stories and policy messages; and (3) directions for future
research and writing.

Four Decades and Five Careers in System
Dynamics

Mastery of system dynamics gives one a variety of ways to be useful and
earn a living. Since my first course in Industrial Dynamics at MIT in the fall
of 1964, I have used SD in five careers: teacher, author, consultant, manager,
and investor. These careers require different levels of mastery. They offer
different possibilities for impact. And each has its own risks. I will describe
each of these roles briefly and indicate the benefits and costs that confront
anyone wishing to pursue that career.

Why myopic policies persist? Impact of growth
opportunities and competition

Several case studies have di d myopic allocation of or

resources among capabilities that payoff in short vs. long-term. We capture a
general class of organizational resource allocation problems in a simple
model that exhibits the typical before-bett

believed to be responsible for persistence of myopic policies. Next we
examine the endogeneity of resources and the impact of competitive
pressures on the efficiency of ion policies. End

competition are both shown to significantly shift the optimal allocation
towards myopic policies. Short-term policies become beneficial as they
strengthen the positive loop between performance, resources, and
capabilities. In fact strategic selection of allocation policy in a competitive
market can force the firms to allocate all the resources to the short-term
capability. These results provide an alternative explanation for the
persistence of myopic organizational decision-rules that does not rest on

p ical and learning

and

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Plenary Sessions continued

Jorgen Randers
jorgen.randers@ bi.no

Norwegian School of Management
Abbedisvingen 6

N-0280 Oslo

Norway

Edward Roberts

eroberts@ mit.edu

USA

Jack Pugh
jackpugh@ alum.mit.edu
Lincoln MA 01773
USA

David W. Packer

david packer@ alum.mit.edu
Systems Thinking Collaborative
7 Chestnut Lane

Bedford MA 01730

USA

The emergence of Limits to Growth Scenario 2:
The pollution crisis

The paper argues that current world developments are starting to resemble
the "pollution crisis" scenario in The Limits to Growth book from 1972.
Ongoing global warming increasingly demonstrate the reality of two major
structural assumptions in the Limits to Growth models: namely 1) long
reaction delays from pollution levels to corrective action, and 2) self-
reinforcing feedback from the pollution level to pollution absorption time,
and back to the pollution level. If left unchecked, these mechanisms could
generate a climate crisis in the 21st century. The paper seeks to highlight the
strength in high level system dynamics conceptualization.

System Dynamics Pioneers Panel Discussion

The early days of system dynamics were a time of enormous innovation,
enthusiasm and creativity. Several of the first students and research
assistants in the field of system dynamics, including Ed Roberts, Jack Pugh,
and Dave Packer will reflect on their experiences, the lessons learned, and
the enduring impact on their careers. Panelists will make introductory
remarks, followed by dialogue among the panelists and with the audience.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 177

Special and Convened Sessions

Jeanette C. Abad
jeanette.abad@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group

One Memorial Drive 16th floor
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

Bent Erik Bakken
beerikba@ online.no

Norwegian Defence Academy
Resource Management Division
FSTS

Akershus Oslo Mil Oslo 1 Norway

Joost Paul Bonsen
jpbonsen@ alum.mit.edu

Freedom Trail Walk

Jeanette Abad will be leading a walking tour of portions of Freedom Trail.
www.cityofboston.gov/freedomtrail. The Trail takes visitors to many of
Boston's most famous historical sites. The tour will be starting from the
lobby of the Seaport Hotel at 10am and end at Faneuil Hall. Comfortable
walking shoes and bottled water are recommended. $2 per person for public
transportation on the T is required. For further information contact Jeanette
Abad at jeanette.abad@paconsulting.com.

Military Roundtable

This roundtable is open to anyone with interest in defense, military and
related fields. All participants should include a brief (3-4 minutes)
presentation of their interest in the field and a list of historical, current and
future activities.

Guided Tour at MIT

Advance sign up is required; please send your sign up request to the Society
office noting day and number of people in your party. Available on Sunday,
July 29 and Thursday, August 2. The walking tour will start at Kendall
Square, near the MIT Sloan School, pass the Barta Building—the founding
home of Whirlwind, and end up at the MIT Museum (on Massachusetts
Avenue near Central Square). Total walking time is about 1.5 hours, and the
distance covered will be about 2 — 3 kilometers. The MIT Museum has
limited hours, in July and August: Monday-Friday 10 A.M. - 5:00 P.M
Saturday & Sunday: Noon - 5:00 P.M. The MIT Museum has generously
waived the entrance fee for tour participants. MIT Museum information: 265
Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, (617) 253-4444,
http://web.mit.edu/museum/index.html. Your tour guide is Joost Paul
Bonsen. Please note: 1. You must sign up for the tour, first-come, first serve.
Maximum 40 participants per tour. 2. You will be responsible for any
transportation costs to arrive at Kendall Square or return to the Seaport
Hotel. The tour is free, and there is no transportation cost associated with the
tour itself. 3. There will be stairs to climb; the tour is a “Walking Tour.”
Please wear appropriate footwear. 4. The tour will be cancelled if there is
bad weather.

178 25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Special and Convenend Sessions continued

Jeffrey Boyer
jeff_boyer@ plugpower.com
Plug Power Inc

968 Albany Shaker Road
Latham NY 12110 USA

Deborah Campbell
deborah-campbell@ comcast.net
System Dynamics Society
1569 Vireo Avenue
Sunnyvale CA 94087

USA

Richard G. Dudley
richard.dudley@ attglobal.net
PMB 239

14845 SW Murray Scholls Dr Ste 110

Beaverton OR 97007-9237
USA

Isaac Dyner
idyner@ yahoo.com

Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Carrera 18 #85-90 Apto 602
Bogota
Colombia

Business Roundtable

SDS Membership Roundtable

Are you a satisfied member of the System Dynamics Society? Would you
like to be? We'd like to hear from you either way. How can our Society best
serve you? The Society provides many activities and services for members,
including the SD Review, our annual conference, chapters and SIGs, to
name just a few. Attend this roundtable and tell us what you value about
Society membership, how our activities and services do or do not enhance
this value, what we could improve, and what you'd like the Society to offer
in the future.

Environmental Roundtable - Environmental Idea
Marketplace

This year the environmental roundtable will be run as an "Idea Marketplace."
At the start of the session anyone present will have the opportunity to stand
up and in one minute present an idea related to system dynamics and the
environment that they would like to discuss with colleagues. After the first
10 minutes or so a number of these ideas will have been collected, and the
session will break up into sub-groups to discuss these topics. Each sub-group
will quickly outline its interests and goals with an aim toward developing
common approaches, and actions, for working the selected issue. Each sub-
group will then report back to the whole group with a one page summary of

ir discussions. Participants are urged to arrive with some key ideas ready
sion! Time will be limited.

Energy Roundtable

The celebration of the 50th anniversary of the SD Society could not offer a
better set up for launching the first roundtable of the Special Interest Group
on Energy. Energy has been a topic of interest within the SD society since
the early days. A large number of issues have been addressed: from national
energy planning to strategic intents in markets, from gas to power, and from
renewable to fossil sources. A i have been idirectional,
multidisciplinary and across large number of countries worldwide in topics
such as transport, industry efficiency and household preferences. The
Roundtable will focus on opportunities for SD research and intervention in
energy security, energy markets, energy and the environment and energy for
the poor and sustainability. This will be a special event for practitioners,

and rep ives of the i ity to meet and
share ideas.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 179

Special and Convened Sessions continued

Robert L. Eberlein
bob@ vensim.com

Ventana Systems Inc

17 Loker Street

Wayland MA 01778 USA

Qifan Wang

qfwang@ fudan.edu.cn

Fudan University

Room 1701 Building I Lane 1235
Lu Jia Bang Rd

200011 Shanghai China

Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany

Albany NY 12222 USA

Jose J. Gonzalez
josej.gonzalez@ hia.no

Agder University

Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509

NO-4898 Grimstad Norway

Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de

University of Berne

Interfacultary Ctr for General Ecology
Postbox 8573

3001 Berne Switzerland

Chintan Vaishnav

chintanv@ mit.edu

MIT

77 Massachusetts Ave Room E40-234
Cambridge MA 02139 USA

180 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Introduction to the System Dynamics Society

This event gives newer conference attendees an opportunity to learn more
about the Society and to meet a few of the officers. This is a very informal
meeting with a web tour of how to best use the Society website. Most of the
time will be spent on questions generated by the audience.

Security Roundtable

The members of the Security SIG come from the information security field,
criminology, air traffic security, organizational accidents and safety. The
inhomogeneous nature of the SIG has made it difficult to establish a stable
forum. Only the subgroup of information security (the Security Dynamics
Network) has a record of group-based activities. The strength of the SIG
comes from its social network. It has allowed the development of several

ive projects, the ization of workshops and the co-direction of
PhDs. Thus, the objective for the close future should be the consolidation of
all these activities and their formalization. To improve the status of the SIG,
the focus of the Roundtable shall be on activity. The goals of this
Roundtable are to identify and classify by scope and objectives the activities
of its individual members, and attempt to sketch a joint strategy (e.g. policy,
guidelines) that will allow the SIG to derive and achieve common objectives,
followed by examples of typical projects to expect in the future. Participants
will be asked to contribute to the Roundtable with facts about their relevant
ional activities, regarding the first goal, and with ideas about joint
ities at the strategy or project aggregation level, regarding the second

System Dynamics PhD Colloquium

The PhD Colloquium is a whole day event for Ph.D. students to present and
inspiringly discuss their current research about foundations, techniques,
tools, and applications in the field of System Dynamics. Junior and senior
System Dynamics practitioners meet here every year to exchange ideas
about their projects in an international atmosphere. The forthcoming 8th PhD
Colloquium will take place on Sunday the 29th July 2007 at the 25th
International Conference of the System Dynamics Society in Boston,

M i USA. Plenary ions will identify common problems
encountered by PhD researchers using System Dynamics. Each presentation

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Special and Convenend Sessions continued

Andreas GréBler

agroe@ gmx.de

Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Postbus 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands

Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany

Albany NY 12222 USA

Andreas GréBler

agroe@ gmx.de

Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Postbus 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen

The Netherlands

Robert L. Eberlein
bob@vensim.com
Ventana Systems Inc
17 Loker Street
Wayland MA 01778
USA

James M. Lyneis

jmlyneis@ verizon.net

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
PO Box 121

215 Landgrove Road

Weston VT 05161

USA

Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany

Albany NY 12222

USA

will be followed by an extended discussion session, providing a unique
opportunity for learning among all attendants. Combined with a poster
session scheduled in the afternoon, we expect the all-day colloquium to be
an exciting event. More information is available at
www.sdstudentchapter.org.

Prospective Conference Host Meeting

The annual conference is the most important activity of the Society, and
therefore hosting it is a very important contribution to the Society. In
addition, being a host for this event can bring fame (sorry, no fortune) to the
hosting individuals and organization, and attract local interest in the field. In
this meeting we will discuss the timetable and activities involved in
preparing a bid to host the fe the requii fora ful bid,
and the i fora i fe We will also discuss the
Society’s schedule for conference site rotation, and the role of SIGs and
Chapters in conferences. Please attend this meeting if you have any interest
in hosting a future conference.

Conference Budgeting Workshop for hosting a
Society conference
This workshop will show how the Society deals with budgeting for a

conference, the budgeting timeline, and what is required financially. This
workshop is open to anyone interested in our conferences.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 181

Special and Convened Sessions continued

Tim Haslett
thaslett@ bigpond.netau
Monash University
1/164 Highett Street
Richmond 3121 Victoria
Australia

John Sterman

jsterman@ mitedu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

Gary B. Hirsch

gbhirsch@ comcast.net

Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road

Wayland MA 01778 USA

Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting
3618 Avalon Court
Voorhees NJ 08043
USA

Roderick H. MacDonald

rod@ isdps.org

Initiative for SD in the Public Sector
300 G Milne Hall

University at Albany

Albany NY 12222

USA

182 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Beer Game World Championship

Whether you have led the game or never played, be sure to come. Have fun
while learning how to facilitate the game. The game will be followed by a
workshop debriefing on Thursday.

Special Convened Session: Simulation-Based
Learning Environments

Simulation-Based Learning Environments include Management Flight

i i Ids, Interactive Learning Envii and similar
approaches. These learning environments have been developed in a number
of areas such as business, health care, and education. The focus of this
session will be on different ways of supporting learning with SD models by
making those models and their lessons more accessible to users. This is
typically done by allowing users to manipulate the models themselves
through an interface, simulation game, guidance by well-designed didactic
materials, or other means. Papers on three very different applications will be
presented. One describes how didactic materials are used to guide students
through explorations of market dynamics. The second presents an interface
that enables health planners to examine different strategies for dealing with
outbreaks of contagious diseases. The final paper describes an experiment in
which some participants in a i based managerial Id had
access to an interface based on a balanced scorecard while other relied on
information in traditional report formats. Discussion afterwards will explore
common insights from these applications.

Seventh Annual Modeling Assistance Workshop

Modeling assistance is available at the conference to enable people to
receive one-on-one coaching with an experienced system dynamics
practitioner. Opportunities include two scheduled sessions, as well as the
possibility of assistance at any time during the conference. Assistance is
available for modelers at any level of modeling ability, from beginner to
advanced, with questions about a specific model, methodology, or software.
Questions may address problem identification, dynamic hypothesis
development, model formulation, model testing, or policy design and
evaluation. Modelers should bring whatever materials they need to describe
their modeling question, including pencil and paper, articles, books, or
laptop computers. Spectators are welcome to observe, and even contribute
their own ideas, during the scheduled modeling assistance sessions.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Special and Convenend Sessions continued

Andrew P. Jones
apjones@ sustainer.org
Sustainability Institute
8 Lynmar Avenue
Asheville NC 28804
USA

Scott F. Rockart
srockart@ duke.edu

Duke University

Fuqua School of Business
Box 90120

Durham NC 27708

USA

Geoff McDonnell
gmedonne@ bigpond.net.au
Adaptive Care Systems
382 Bronte Road
Bronte NSW 2024
Australia

Gary B. Hirsch

gbhirsch@ comcast.net

Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road

Wayland MA 01778

USA

David Rees
david.rees@ synergia.co.nz
Synergia Ltd

PO Box 31-503
Milford Auckland

New Zealand

Oleg V. Pavlov

opavlov@ wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd

Worcester MA 01609

USA

David Wheat

dwheat@ wheatresources.com
University of Bergen
Nedre Fjellsmug 6

5018 Bergen

Norway

Diagram Slam

All conference participants are invited to compete to create the most
entertaining, innovative, beautiful and/or outrageous stock-flow/causal-loop
diagram. The topic area will be announced on Wednesday morning with
entries due later that day. After the evening Beer Game event, five finalists
will present their results in front of the conference audience to determine the
winner.

HPSIG: Health Policy Discussion Focused on
Chronic IlIness and Business Meeting

The Health Policy Special Interest Group will have a wide-ranging
discussion about its members’ work in the area of chronic illness. Topics will
include diabetes, mental illness, cardiovascular disease (CVD)and its risk
factors, and health planning as it relates to chronic illness. Members will
discuss their experience in applying SD in these areas, new insights
developed as a result of using SD and impact that was achieved, and further
opportunities they see for SD to help improve thinking and policymaking
about chronic illness. The session will conclude with a very brief HPSIG
business meeting. All i: ISDC are d to join us!

Economics Roundtable: Teaching Economics with
SD

The Economics Chapter of the System Dynamics Society will host a
roundtable discussion on "Teaching Economics with SD." Everyone is
invited to attend. The Roundtable will highlight current initiatives that
involve i ication of SD ing and/or i thinking in
economics courses. Those of us in the Chapter are aware of some of those
initiatives, but we want to know more. We are particularly interested in (a)
the way SD methodology is being implemented as a teaching tool in
economics, and (b) assessment efforts to gauge the effectiveness of SD as a
tool for teaching economics. There will be brief “highlight” presentations by
instructors from both higher education and K-12 who are using SD to teach

ics or ics, followed by questions and di i
We hereby invite anyone interested in making a presentation to submit a
proposal (less than 200 words) via email to David Wheat

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 183

Special and Convened Sessions continued

Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl

Universidad de Talea

FACE

Avenida Lircay s/n

Talca Chile

Lees N. Stuntz
stuntzin@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
27 Central Street

Acton MA 01720

USA

(david.wk ib.no) for i ion by the selection i For
planning purposes, it would be helpful to know how many participants to
expect. Please email David Wheat (david.wheat@uib.no) if you are
considering attendance.

Peer Review Dialog Meeting
This year’s “peer review dialog meeting” will take up what participants have
articulated last year and what the Policy Council has undertaken in the
meantime. Briefly put: even though the final decision is up to the programme
committee, formally deficient papers would be rejected without revision,
formally deficient reviews would lead to suspending the reviewer for one
year, authors of accepted papers would evaluate the review’s usefulness and
reviewers would have a discussion forum in order to collaborate. One
conference later, we shall ask how the actual process related to the planned
one, on the basis of last year’s report and the PC’s response to it. We'll also
assess how it worked this time, indicate what has been achieved and what
seems to need improvement. We shall conjointly set up a set of
recommendations, too.

Exhibitor Demonstrations

Exhibitor demonstrations will be held during breaks to showcase products
and services in practice.

K-12 Open Discussion

All those interested in system dynamics in K-12 education are encouraged to
attend and join in the discussion. We will be discussing three major
strategies for increasing the use of system dynamics in K-12: Innovative
curriculum development, appropriate training for teachers and students and
linkages with other organizations or movements which could be enhanced by
the utilization of system ics, such as i i ion and
economics. Those planning to attend are urged to contact Lees Stuntz
(stuntzIn@clexchange.org) before the session so that we can make the most
of our time together.

184 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Special and Convenend Sessions continued

Lees N. Stuntz Special Convened Session: Celebration of System
stuntzln@ clexchange.org

Creative Learting Bxchanee Dynamics in K-12 Education; Honoring Jay

27 Central Street Forrester
Acton MA 01720
SA, Jay Forrester, who created the field of system dynamics, turned his attention

to K-12 education about 18 years ago. He has put his considerable and
positive energy into promoting the use of system dynamics in education for
students aged 5 through 18. He mentored the System Dynamics in Education
Project at MIT for 13 years, developing Road Maps, a self-guided study
program originally designed to help teachers learn system dynamics. He has
been active as Trustee of the Creative Learning Exchange, encouraging the
writing of curriculum through the Gordon Brown Fund and staying involved
with teachers through workshops and conferences. This session is intended
to honor Jay, his support for and his commitment to the K-12 students and
teachers.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 185

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions

Emmanuel D. Adamides
adamides@ mech.upatras.gr
University of Patras

PO Box 5064

26004 Patras

Greece

George P. Papaioannou
g-papaioannou@ dei.com.gr

Public Power Corporation of Greece
31 Evias Street

Alimos 17456

Greece

Seema Arif

drarif00@ yahoo.com

Association for Academic Quality
461-G3 Johar Town

Lahore 54600

Pakistan

Ijaz Yusuf

ijaz_y@ hotmail.com

Quality Circle Institute

Suite No 7 3rd Floor Gulshan Plaza
Opposite Karim Buksh Near Moon Market
Allama Iqbal Town Lahore

Pakistan

Jeffrey Boyer
jeff_boyer@ plugpower.com
Plug Power Inc

968 Albany Shaker Road
Latham NY 12110 USA

Thinking global, acting local: The activities of the
Hellenic Chapter of the System Dynamics Society

July 2006 was a milestone for the Hellenic Chapter, as it was announced that
the 2008 Conference of the Society would be held in Athens, Greece. The
decision of the Policy Council immediately mobilized the core members of
the chapter along two directions: First, towards the organization of a
conference to be remembered for its quality and excellence, and second
towards creating a critical mass of new members that will contribute to the
organization and operations of the conference as much as they would be
benefited from it. As a consequence, in parallel with the preparations for the
2008 conference (hotel and venue arrangements, sponsor meetings, etc.), the
society is organizing in May and June two national events in association
with other related societies (The Hellenic Systems Studies Society and the
Hellenic Operational Research Society), while an edited volume of
contributions from Greek members of the System Dynamics international
community is to be published by a leading publisher in Greece.

Pakistan Chapter Poster Presentation

Pakistan Chapter of Systems Dynamic Society consists of professionals
across diverse disciplines. i rs and business men
keen to apply systems dynamics in their relevant fields. They are twenty five
in number. Pakistan Chapter is trying to include more members and plans to
conduct educative seminars in different institutions of higher learning in
Pakistan to attract more energetic and keen learners. It has already conducted
a workshop on Beer Game last year. Pakistan Chapter also offers diploma
and certificate courses in “Systems Thinking and Strategic Planning” and
“Modeling Business Dynamics.” Three papers have been contributed for
Boston 2007 on Pakistan Chapter’s behalf. They are: “A SD Approach on
Quality Education in Classroom \ at Schools” by Ijaz Yusuf, and
Rabia Sajjad; “Aligning the Supply Chains of Educational Institutes with
Business Strategy” by Asher Ramish and “Developing Universal Model of
Educational Leadership” by Seema Arif. The Pakistan Chapter looks toward
support and coaching from international Society members to increase
knowledge and awareness about systems thinking, dynamic modeling and
strategy planning in Pakistan.

Business SIG Poster Presentation

186 25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions continued

Brian C. Dangerfield
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford

Salford Business School CORAS
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford MS 4WT

UK

Niraldo José do Nascimento
niroj@ terra.com.br

UPIS Faculdades Integradas

SGAN 914 Cond South Beach

Bloco B Apto 224 Asa Norte
70790-140 Brasilia DF

Brazil

Leonardo Moura Reis
leonardoreis@ aiec.br

AIEC

Av Higienopolis 240 131B
Sao Paulo SP 01238-000
Brazil

Richard G. Dudley
richard.dudley@ attglobal.net

PMB 239

14845 SW Murray Scholls Dr Ste 110
Beaverton OR 97007-9237

USA

Allyson Beall

abeall@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
PO Box 921

Pullman WA 99163

USA

UK Chapter Poster Presentation

The UK Chapter was one of the first regional Chapters to be formed. We
have regular meetings in the UK and annually at the international conference
venue. This year we held our 9th Annual Gathering at Harrogate, North
Yorkshire. The event consists of a Thursday afternoon of talks, presentation
of UK Chapter Student prize and a business meeting. A convivial dinner
follows in the evening with further sessions on the Friday morning. We
expect an attendance in the range 50-60 and a recent survey of the entire
membership showed it to be a very worthwhile session at a pleasant venue.
In Spring 2006 we inaugurated an evening networking event in London and
over 40 people attended. The second was held in December 2006. More of
these events are planned for 2007 and beyond. Finally, we have recently
updated and re-located our website. Point your browser to www.
systemdynamics.org.uk If you are based in the UK and not already on our
membership list (membership is free) then please do join us and see what we
have to offer. If anyone would like to see a specific type of event taking
place then please make your idea known. We look forward to hearing from
you.

Brazil Chapter Poster Presentation

The main activity of the Brazilian Chapter during 2006 was The Ist
International Business Dynamics Congress, in Brasilia, from October 18th to
21st. Participation was possible either in person or over the Internet. With
English / Portuguese simultaneous translation at most of the sessions, the
congress brought together researchers, executives from the public and
private sectors, consultants and academics from the national and
international communities. Around 80 papers were presented, and the main
keynote speakers of the event were Juan Martin Garcia (La Salle, Barcelona)
and Paulo Gongalves (Miami University). The objectives of this congress
were to: ¢ facilitate the Brazilian public’s contact with the System Dynamics’
concepts and applications: * contribute to the development of a community
of system and + allow the participation of
everyone, on-site or off-site, promoting international exchange of ideas and
experiences; The videos of event presentations will be available for
streaming starting on July 15, 2007 at www.sbds.org.br. The next Congress
will be held in Sao Paulo, May 14-16, 2008.

The Environment Special Interest Group Poster
Presentation

The environment special interest group provides a forum for members with
interests in many aspects of the environment. The group includes system
dynamicists with interests in a wide variety of sub-areas from ecological
studies of specific ecosystems, to worldwide concerns about human
influences on planet Earth. Domains of interest include: ecological studies of
natural systems, management of renewable natural resource systems, water
resource systems, of mineral ions between
humans and the natural environment, specific impacts pollutants and

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 187

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions continued

Tom Lum Forest

tforest@ alum.mitedu
Prometheal Systems

2023 18th Avenue

Forest Grove OR 97116-2717
USA

Shayne Gary

sgary@ agsm.edu.au

Australian Graduate School of Mgmt
University of New South Wales
Sydney NSW 2052

Australia

Geoff McDonnell
gmcdonne@ bigpond.net.au
‘Adaptive Care Systems
382 Bronte Road
Bronte NSW 2024
Australia

Jose J. Gonzalez

jose j.gonzalez@ hia.no

Agder University

Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509

NO-4898 Grimstad

Norway

Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegui@ tecnun.es

Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia

Spain

188 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

products (such as GM crops) on our environment, larger impacts on the
global ecosystem (biogeochemical cycles, global warming effects etc) and
their mitigation, policy studies, and efforts aimed at ensuring human
"progress" energy etc. and I I The
poster will stimulate conversation among system dynamic society members
regarding the wide variety of subject areas that are included under the
umbrella "environment" and how these different areas complement one
another and other activities of society members. The poster will also clarify
and help define the role that the environment special interest group could
have with regard to overall society activities, such as supporting non-SIG
members who may require ideas and suggestions about environmental
subjects. Contact: Richard Dudley, Chair: Richard.dudley@attglobal.net.

Australasia Chapter Overview & Planned
Activities

The Australasian Chapter has about 56 members from across the region.
This is up from approximately 45 members in 2006. In terms of geographical
spread, we have 35 members in Australia, 9 in New Zealand, 3 in Pakistan, 2
in Singapore, 1 in Indonesia, | in Malaysia, and | in India. In March, the
chapter held a one-day workshop in Sydney that attracted 13 attendees from
all over Australia. There was a good mix of academics and practitioners in
attendance and it was terrific to hear about the interesting work being done
by chapter members on a wide range of topics. The chapter has also had
several international visitors so far in 2007. Professor Yaman Barlas, from
Bogazigi University, visited in late January and gave seminars at UNSW’s
Accelerated Learning Lab and Centre for Health Informatics. Professor Erik
Larsen visited UNSW at the end of February. Also, Professor Andy Ford
visited the University of Queensland in February. The Chapter is currently
working on an interactive content management web site. Updates about
chapter activities, expertise of chapter members, a discussion forum,
seminars, conference announcements, etc. will be posted on the web site
soon.

Security Special Interest Group

The Security SIG has members from very different areas since “security” is
a very generic term. Many members come from the information security
field. In addition, areas as different as criminology, air traffic security,
organizational accidents, safety are also represented. However, traditionally,
the SIG leadership has come from the information security area. The
inhomogeneous nature of the SIG and the “bias” of the SIG leadership have
made it difficult to establish a forum with continuous activities. Only the
subgroup related to information security (the Security Dynamics Network)
has so far shown a consistent record of group-based activities. The poster
illustrates a project originating within the information security area that has
is likely to involve aspects in the fields of safety and criminality/terrorism.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions continued

Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de

University of Berne

Interfacultary Ctr for General Ecology
Postbox 8573

3001 Berne

Switzerland

Matteo Pedercini
matteois@ hotmail.com
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Blvd Ste 650
Arlington VA 22201

USA

Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de

University of Berne

Interfacultary Ctr for General Ecology
Postbox 8573

3001 Berne

Switzerland

Thomas Beck
thomas. beckl @ bluewin.ch
Swiss Re
Zaurlindenstrasse 50
CH-8003 Zurich
Switzerland

Gary B. Hirsch

gbhirsch@ comcast.net

Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road

Wayland MA 01778

USA

Student Chapter Poster Presentation

The Student Chapter of the System Dynamics Society was established in
1999. We bring together all students who are involved in System Dynamics
research and give them the opportunity to raise key questions and to discuss
concerns related to their research in a constructive and enjoyable
atmosphere. For this purpose, the Chapter manages a website, a list server,
and a newsletter, and organizes a yearly PhD Colloquium held during the
International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. The objectives of
the Chapter are: (1) to extend and unify the knowledge of feedback systems
among students all over the world, (2) to promote the development of
System Dynamics and the interchange of knowledge and research, (3) to
intensify the communication between and form a basis for cooperation
amongst the graduate students in their researches, (4) to arouse interest
among undergraduate students towards SD, (5) to promote the
communication between the students of SD and the practitioners of the field,
(6) to form a medium to help SD students to get into contact with field
related graduate studies and job opportunities. It is also for these reasons that
the Student Chapter organizes the now traditional PhD Colloquium. Check
www.sdstudentchapter.org for more information.

Swiss Chapter Poster Presentation

The Swiss Chapter of the System Dynamics Society consists of researchers,
educators, consultants, and practitioners in the corporate and public sectors.
Approximately 120 people receive our e-mails and about twenty of them are
full members who pay the membership fee. The number of participants in
chapter meetings is relatively constant at around ten. Additional activities
involve ing consultin; Ip and i P

Chapter meetings are organized where we usually combine a presentation
about System Dynamics in action with the discussion of organizational,
chapter-related issues. In addition, the Swiss Chapter organizes several PhD
round tables each year at different locations. At these meetings, PhD
students of Switzerland who apply System Dynamics and related disciplines
in their research have the opportunity to present and discuss their projects
and obtain feedback from senior researchers and peers. With such a
structure, we try to maximize the benefits for our chapter members. Our
conclusion so far is that there are quite some people in Switzerland who deal
with System Dynamics. Everyone in this heterogeneous group is ultimately
motivated to reach his individual SD related goals. The value added by the
Chapter’s activities lies in the provision of networking, learning and
exchange opportunities. Visit: www.systemdynamics-swisschapter.ch.

Health Policy Special Interest Group Poster
Presentation

The Health Policy Special Interest Group (HPSIG) has about 150 members
representing many countries. It maintains a Wiki (www.hpsig.com) with
much useful information about SD applications in health care and relevant

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 189

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions continued

Michael S. Kennedy
mike.kennedy@ Isbu.ac.uk

London South Bank University
Department of Accounting and Finance
103 Borough Road

London SE] 0AA UK

Carol Frances
carolfrances100@ hotmail.com
Seton Hall University

405 Jubilee Hall

400 South Orange Avenue
South Orange NJ 07079 USA

Ralph L. Levine
leviner@ msu.edu

Michigan State University
CARRS Dept

East Lansing MI 48824
USA

190 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

papers that present systemic views of health care problems. The HPSIG also
hosts a Sunday afternoon session prior to the beginning of the ISDC on
topics such as health reform and why it is so difficult (at the 2005 and 2006
conferences) and SD applications to chronic illness in different countries
(coming up at the 2007 conference). This poster session will be an
opportunity to meet some of the HPSIG's members, learn more about the
group, and join if you are interested.

The current activities and plans of the SDS
Education SIG

This paper describes the current activities and plans of the SDS Education
SIG. We continues to pursue our twin interests in publicising and enhancing
both the contribution of SD to Education Management and the evolution of
the contribution of SD to the curriculum - in both cases the interest spans the
whole span of education from K-12 to Higher Education. Plans and activities
include: 1. Organising oe and other events on the utilisation of
systems based app 10 Educati 2.2
education, systems and other graduate students to consider using system
dynamics approaches for education policy dissertations. 3. Encouraging
graduate students to consider examining enhanced techniques for improving
the contribution of SD to the curriculum in their dissertations. 4. Making

& publishing articles to i members of other education

to system d to their work. 5. Conducting a

survey of all those interested in sD & education so as to form an active
network with a database of current and planned system dynamics topics /
projects and a taxonomy of publications. 6. Improving our collaboration with
other groups conducting K-12 based activities. Your ideas and contributions
to any of the above are most welcome!

Psychology Chapter Poster Presentation

The Psychology Chapter of the International System Dynamics Society was
formed about a year and a half ago. In general, the goals of the chapter are to
integrate relevant psychological concepts into System Dynamics models and
to apply System Dynamics methodology to model individual and social

psy: I theories, by i d feedback isms as underlying
causes of behavior. The Chapter currently is in its early stages of
development. There are plans to survey the System Dynamics literature to
find how others in the past have included psychological processes in their
models. In addition, a list serve will be established for its members to share
ideas about modeling psychological processes and to discuss behavioral
principles might be needed to make some System Dynamics models more
attuned to the current psychological literature. In the meeting in Boston, we
will begin the process of writing the Chapter's bylaws, which eventually
should lead to election of officers.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions continued

Michiya Morita
michiya.morita@ gakushuin.ac.jp
Gakushuin University

1-5-1 Mejiro

Toshima-ku

Tokyo 171-8588 Japan

Yutaka Takahashi
takahasi@ isc.senshu-u.ac,jp
Senshu University

2-1-1 Higashimita Tama
Kawasaki Kanagawa 214-8580
Japan

Leeza Osipenko
Losipenko@ warwickac.uk
University of Warwick
Medical School

Gibbet Hill Rd
Coventry CV47AL UK

Japan Chapter Activity Report

System Dynamics history in Japan commenced in 1960s; several textbooks
of Industrial Dynamics were published in those days. After that, many
researchers used System Dynamics in their own field individually for about
30 years. Thereafter, System Dynamics researchers gathered and founded
Japan Chapter of International System Dynamics Society in 1990. Since
then, Japan Chapter held The International System Dynamics Conference
1995 hosted by Gakushuin University in Tokyo. The chapter members
assembled their best minds and finished it successfully. In 2006, Japan
Chapter had over one hundred chapter members. As Research activities,
Japan Chapter publishes an annual journal and holds regular research
meetings and symposiums. In 2006, we held six research meetings including
one public symposium. In particular, public symposiums are the most
important events not only for the chapter but also for the public. The recent
theme of the public symposium is “Whither Japan SD Education?” The

ium had many i public people. We always
welcome System Dynamics members or users who visit Japan. Several
System Dynamics researchers have already had meetings hosted by Japan
Chapter. Contact with our Chapter Liaison is greatly appreciated.

Russian Chapter Poster Presentation

Last year was very fruitful for SDRus. We increased our membership and
improved SD Rus website. In April 2007 the second international business
conference “Simulation modeling in strategic and operational business

"was, ized by SDRus Vice-president Alexey Gorbunov.
Many of SDRus members participated. In Apatity (Kola Peninsula) national
scientific conference “Theory and practice of system dynamics” was held.
All conference materials are available on our website. SDRus was advertised
during both events and it increased our profile as well as attracted new
members. Now the SDRus website (www.sdrus.org.ru) is featuring the
forum for discussions which helps members exchange ideas, answers their
questions and inspires new projects. XJtek continues to support SDRus and
helps expand the presence of system dynamics in Russian and International
markets. Dennis Meadows visited Moscow in February of 2007 and gave a
lecture at the Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology. The lecture “It
has to be completely stopped” was dedicating to the discussion of climate
change and excessive reliance on natural resources. System dynamics
continues to actively develop in a number of centers in Russia. Interest in
academic circles is growing along with the numerous projects in the
industry.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 191

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions continued

Oleg V. Pavlov

opavlov@ wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd

Worcester MA 01609

USA

David Wheat

dwheat@ wheatresources.com
University of Bergen
Nedre Fjellsmug 6

5018 Bergen

Norway

Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl

Universidad de Talca

FACE

Avenida Lircay s/n

Talca Chile

Isaac Dyner

idyner@ yahoo.com

Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Carrera 18 #85-90 Apto 602
Bogota

Colombia

Gloria Pérez Salazar

gloria perez@ itesm.mx

Tecnologico de Monterrey

Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
Av Eugenio Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL

Mexico

Habib Sedehi
habib.sedehi@ uniromal it
University of Rome

La Sapienza

Via Rubra 246

00188 Rome Italy

Edoardo Mollona

emollona@ cs.unibo.it

Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Department of Computer Science
Mura Anteo Zamboni 7

40127 Bologna Italy

192 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Economics Chapter Poster Presentation

Since its inception in 2003, the Economics Chapter has been promoting the
use of system dynamics to study and improve economic systems. The
chapter maintains a website and a mailing list with over 70 subscribers.
Members of the chapter have successfully organized system dynamics
threads during fe and i the ics thread
during annual meetings of the System Dynamics Society. We encourage
anyone interested in Economics to stop by the poster to learn about the
activities of the chapter and its members. We also would like to hear about
your interests and invite you to join the chapter. A special event this year is a
Roundtable discussion on using SD to teach economics, and everyone is
invited to attend.

Latin American Chapter of the System Dynamics
Society

The Chapter was founded en 2002. Its first line of activities was to start a
Latinamerican conference, from 2003 on - held in Monterrey (Mexico),
Talca (Chile), Cartagena (Colombia) and Cancun (Mexico). Since 2004, the
chapter has a quarterly on-line newsletter called sisTEMAS
(dinamicasistemas.utalca.cl/sisTEMAS/sisTemas.htm). In 2005, appeared
the “Revista de Dinamica de Sistemas” which publishes 2 numbers per year
(dinamicasistemas.utalca.cl/Revista/RDS_home.htm) and currently he 4th
issue is on-line. The chapter has a growing number of members from
Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela, Argentina, Peru, Chile and particularly
Spain, 23 of whom are formally members of the System Dynamics Society.
Currently, the Chapter is represented in the Policy Council by Gloria Pérez
from “Instituto Tecnolégico de Monterrey” (Mexico) and presided by Martin
Schaffernicht from the “Universidad de Talca” (Chile). Priorities are to
strengthen the internal structure of the chapter so as to foster collaboration
despite the geographical distance between members; since the Cancun
conference, collaborative work on an on-line book is under progress. Also,
we will strive for the “Revista” to be incorporated into the LATINDEX
database. The official web-site is dinamica-sistemas.mty.itesm.mx.

SYDIC: System Dynamics Italian Chapter Poster
Presentation

The final design and development of the System Dynamics Italian Chapter
(SYDIC) new website continue to be in progress. At Communication
Sciences faculty Rome University “La Sapienza”, the SD course has been
confirmed and more than 50 students were introduced to System Dynamics
and of delling. There has been
continues academic activities developed by Chapter members (here reported)
in the field all over the country. University of Bologna —Faculty of
Mathematical, Physical and Natural Sciences — Dynamics of Complex

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions continued

Stefano Armenia
armenia@ disp.uniroma2.it

Tor Vergata University Rome
Via Pescosolido 168

00158 Rome Italy

Luc Van Den Durpel
vddurpel@ listo.be

LISTO bvba

Groenstraat 35

9250 Waasmunster

Belgium

Andrea Marcello Bassi

4141@ stud.liuc.it

Millennium Institute

2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650
Arlington VA 22201

USA

Bing Wu

wbesh@ 163.com

Tongji University

LongGaolu 88 JiuTing Songjiang
Shanghai 201615 China

Liqin Zhang
zhanglq1@ 126.com

Organisations course University of Siena — Department of Social and
Business Studies — Governance and Management Control course University
of Rome “La Sapienza” — Faculty of C ication Sciences dvanced
degree in Enterprise Communication — System Theory and Dynamic
Simulation Modelling course University of Rome “La Sapienza” Master at
Faculty of Statistics Sciences — Department of Data Intelligence and
Strategic Decisions — Integrative lessons in SD University of Rome “Tor
Vergata” — Faculty of Economics — Department of Enterprise Studies
University of Rome “Tor Vergata’ Faculty of Engineering — Department of
Enterprise Engineering — Enterprise Production Processes Modelling &
Service System Modelling course and Master in Network System
Engineering — Integrative lessons in SD ENI Corporate University — Mattei
School of Management — Master in Energy and Environmental Economics
and Management - Integrative lessons in SD.

Energy SIG: Overview

The prime objective of the Energy SIG is to further the development of a
holistic view on energy policy and energy systems by use of systems
thinking and use of system dynamics tools. Areas of interest for this new

SIG are the d and ication of system ics in: « Energy
systems technology development and energy market modeling + Technology
assessment * Energy impact on i Ir + Energy

+ Energy-environmental policy design and assessment ¢ ... with direct
application to systems of direct relevance to the energy sector. The Energy
SIG develops and stimulates activities aimed at: + Information exchange; +
Stimulate further research; * Organize special sessions during SDS-
Conferences or during other events supporting the Energy SIG objectives; +
Promote cooperation and joint sessions with other energy-related
organizations during SDS-Conferences or during other events; * Stimulate
cooperation and exchange with other Special Interest Groups of the SDS; +
Contribute with study, research, and activities, to the discussion of

ing the energy role and
environmental impacts. The poster will show the objectives and activities
undertaken by the Energy SIG. More information on this Energy SIG may be
obtained via energy@sigs.systemdynamics.org or from the website

http: iS .org/sigs ‘gy.

China Chapter Poster Presentation

For information about the China Chapter please visit the website:
http://www.systemdynamics.cn.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 193

Workshops

Michael Bean
mbean@ forio.com

Forio Business Simulations
365 Brannan Street

San Francisco CA 94107
USA

Andrei Borshchey

andrei@ xjtek.com

XJ Technologies

49 Nepokorennykh Ave Office 410
St Petersburg 195220

Russia

Jim Duggan

jim.duggan@ nuigalway.ie

National University of Ireland Galway
Department of Information Technology
University Road

Galway

Ireland

Methods to Make Your Simulation Run on the
World-Wide Web

Simulations that run in web browsers have the advantages of global
accessibility, simple distribution, and the ability to monitor simulation usage.
However, simulations need to be modified in order to effectively use the
online medium. Online simulations need to engage the user, be accessible in
multiple formats, be simple to navigate, and correspond to the user's learning
objectives. Usability design is critical to create simulations that will be used
by a diverse, global audience with limited knowledge of simulation, short
attention spans, and unarticulated use objectives.During the workshop,
Michael Bean will demonstrate how to create web simulations, discuss
commonly occurring web simulation design challenges and potential
solutions, and show examples of web simulations that have been used by
thousands of users. Michael will also provide a series of guidelines for
creating simulations online. Michael will provide handout booklets, sample
simulations, and sample HTML pages that can be used to create your own
first web simulation.

Getting Started with AnyLogic Software

AnyLogic is a multi-method simulation software supporting System
Dynamics, Discrete Event and Agent Based modeling. AnyLogic modeling
language enables you to efficiently capture the complexity and heterogeneity
of business, economy and social systems. In this workshop we build a model
where interacting objects in the real world having different nature will be
modeled using a ination of different app The model will be
from Supply Chain or Healthcare domain. We will go through most of new
feature of recently release version 6. You may bring your own laptop, install
the software (CD will be available) and follow us, or just watch the process
of model development.

Modelling Agent-Based Systems Using System
Dynamics

This workshop presents an experimental simulation environment — based on
the .NET platform - that can be used to integrate population-level dynamics
with those occurring at an individual, or agent-based, level. The benefit of
this approach is that individual agent behaviour may be mapped at a detailed
level, using differential and over the entire populati

in order to determine population-level dynamics. Furthermore, individual

194 25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Workshop continued

Robert L. Eberlein
bob@ vensim.com

Ventana Systems Inc

17 Loker Street

Wayland MA 01778

USA.

Joanne C. Egner
jegner@ iseesystems.com
isee systems inc

31 Old Etna Rd Suite SN
Lebanon NH 03766 USA

Karim J. Chichakly
kchichakly@ iseesys.com
isee systems ine

31 Old Etna Rd Suite 5N
Lebanon NH 03766 USA

Paul G. Gisborne

paul@ pgaconsulting.co.uk
Whole Systems Partnership
11 Robert Street

Harrogate North Yorkshire HG1 1HP UK

Diana Fisher
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School

7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008 USA

Debra A. Lyneis

lyneisd@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
PO Box 121

215 Landgrove Road
Weston VT 05161 USA

Lees N. Stuntz

stuntzln@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
27 Central Street

Acton MA 01720 USA.

agents can interact with one another, in terms of a grid-based social network
structure. The environment is firmly srounded ¥ in the system dynamics
approach, and, unlike conventional ‘bas en

programming is not required in order to specify agent interactions and
behaviours. The workshop describes the approach, and participants will have
an opportunity to experiment with a market dynamics model, based on two
firms competing for a fixed market population.

Getting Started with Vensim®

System Dynamics is about understanding complex systems. As Jay Forrester
points out human beings are not able to understand the implications of
multiple interacting feedback loops. To support us in this endeavor,
therefore, we need software. Vensim is one of the available software
products that fully supports system dynamics and this workshop is an
introduction to using it.

Getting Started with STELLA and iThink

This workshop will be an introduction to building and communicating
system dynamics models using STELLA or iThink software. The workshop
is intended for people who are relatively new to the field or do not have
experience using STELLA or iThink. The session will be conducted as a
hands on workshop and basic i for building, anal.

and communicating simple simulation models. Participants should bring
their own computers with STELLA or iThink Version 9 installed or arrive
15 minutes early to install the software.

Teaching Your Children System Dynamics/Systems
Thinking

Workshop attendees will participate in several lessons designed to teach the
principles of system dynamics to elementary, middle and high school
students. Participants may share their experiences in teaching system
dynamics to children. The workshop will conclude with a brief discussion of
the available curriculum resources, strategies, challenges and pitfalls of

K-12 system ics. ACD ing helpful articles and
sample lessons will be made available to each participant (at no cost).

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 195

Workshop continued

Diana Fisher
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School

7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008
USA

Eduardo Pedro Fracassi
fracassi@ itba.edu.ar

Instituto Tecnologico de Buenos Aires
Av Madero 399

Buenos Aires Capital Federal
Argentina

Will Glass-Husain
wglass@ forio.com

Forio Business Simulations
365 Brannan Street

San Francisco CA 94107
USA

196 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First
Course (new chapter on delays)

“Modeling Dynamics Systems: Lessons for a First Course” provides a set of
materials that enable educators at the secondary and college levels to teach a
one-semester or one- year course in System Dynamics modeling. These
lessons are also useful for trainers in a business environment. A new chapter
dealing with material and information delays will be discussed. Developed
for beginning modelers, the lessons contained in this book can be used for a
core curriculum or for independent study. Systems thinking software like
STELLA offers an opportunity to create visual models that actively engage
students in the study of a wide variety of problems. Creating a model allows
for “real-time” analysis of dynamic behavior and a more stimulating
environment in which to glean insight. The lessons include some of the
classic System Dynamics problems (population change, resource

inability, drug pharmacokinetics, spread of an epidemic, urban growth,
supply and demand, and more). Developed over 15 years, the lessons in this
book provide an easy-to-use set of teaching materials that are paced gently
enough for novice modelers.

The Career Simulator - Which are the key
decisions in Career Planning?

Which are the key Career Planning decisions? I created the Career Simulator
to teach last year students the basic systemic structure of career success at
ITBA - (Instituto Tecnologico de Buenos Aires), which offers 5-year
academic programs in engineering. The Career Simulator model is based on
more than 11 years coaching the careers of our graduates and in the study of
the careers of successful professionals in Argentina and USA. The model
predicts 4 key “hard” career planning decisions. Surprisingly, a great
percentage of high talented and qualified engineering professionals ignore
them leading some of them to poor career results. The advantages of taking
into account this 4 key “hard decisions” when planning your career are very
important: more career resources and career options, higher income
potential, increased negotiation power. They complement your “soft” career
decisions with logical and established criteria for taking your “hard”
decisions to enhance your career.

Getting Started With Forio Broadcast

This workshop will present a step by step approach to building a web-based
simulation based on an existing simulation model. Participants will use the
web application Forio Broadcast to upload a simulation model and construct
a simple web interface. The resulting simulation will be accessible by
anyone across the internet using only a standard internet browser.
Participants can bring a model (built with popular simulation software
packages such as Vensim, Powersim, Ithink, STELLA) or may use one of
Forio’s pre-built models as an example.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Workshop continued

Rick Kossik

rkossik@ goldsim.com

GoldSim Technology Group
22516 SE 64th Place Suite 110
Issaquah WA 98027

USA

Leonard A. Malezynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories
1515 Eubank SE

Albuquerque NM 87123-1350

Geoff McDonnell
gmcdonne@ bigpond.net.au
Adaptive Care Systems

382 Bronte Road

Bronte NSW 2024 Australia

Nathaniel Osgood
nosgood@ mit.edu
University of Saskatchewan

Computer Science Dpt 280.6 Thorvaldson

110 Science Place
Saskatoon SK S7N 5C9 Canada

Getting Started with GoldSim Software

This workshop will be an introduction to building probabilistic system
dynamic models using GoldSim. GoldSim differs from traditional system
dynamics software in that 1) it puts much greater emphasis on probabilistic
iques to support rep ion of uncertain and/or
stochastic systems; and 2) it relies on more specialized model objects
(beyond stocks, flows and converters) in order to make models less abstract
(and hence more transparent) and help tepresent processes and events that

cannot easily be using a tre 1 system d approach.
In general, this is because GoldSim has traditionally been used for
engineering and scientific ications where

predictions of future performance have been required (e.g., by regulators) in
order to inform and defend policy and design designs. The workshop is
intended for people who are already familiar with traditional system
dynamics tools, and will focus on how GoldSim models can be used to
complement and extend models built using traditional approaches. The
session will demonstrate basic GoldSim functionality, how GoldSim can be
used to represent uncertain and stochastic systems, and will discuss a
number of specialized objects provided by the software. Computers are not
required for this short workshop.

Advanced application design with Powersim Studio

A system dynamics application is the combination of a model and a user
interface. A key to building effective applications necessitates spending
some time on model layout and the software engineering techniques that
ultimately improve model quality and lend models to application
development. These include module coupling and cohesion, naming

deling team i ion, and dards. The ultimate success
ofan application i is measured by use. There are traditional and novel creative
ways to make useful applications using the available interface tools.
Extending a model and interface beyond the usual system dynamics
constructs may lead to more effective applications.

Multiscale Modeling in Anylogic6 with Health
Examples

There is a long history of using disaggregated micro models for assisting
with structure and of more highly SD models. We
present a new i which SD,
Agent Based and Discrete Event simulation using the java Eclipse
framework, which allows powerful software extensions, including GIS
datasets and opti ion, and ing and ing animations across
multiple Mac and PC platforms. This interactive workshop will use mostly

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 197

Workshop continued

Andrei Borshchev

andrei@ xjtek.com

XJ Technologies

49 Nepokorennykh Ave Office 410
St Petersburg 195220 Russia

Ozge Karanfil

oage karanfil@ mail.mcgill.ca

McGill University

Centre for Nonlinear Dynamics
3655 Promenade Sir William Osler
Montreal Quebec H3G 1Y Canada

Giiven Demirel
guven.demirel@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University

Industrial Engineering Dept SESDYN Lab

34342 Bebek Istanbul Turkey

James Melhuish
jamesmelhuis@ gmail.com

BAE Systems

82 Harvard Street
Newtonville MA 02460-2232
USA

Moh dT. Mojtahed

d

mohammad@ attunegroup.com
Attune Group Inc

16 Regina Court Suite 1
Delmar NY 12054

USA

198 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

health examples to illustrate the features, including epidemics, diffusion of
innovation, “across the skin” modeling, population dynamics, and chronic
illness idity and di: ity, dynamic decisi king and adaptive
supply chains.

Mark Heffernan

mheffernan@ evanspeck.com

Evans & Peck Pty Ltd

20/390 Eastern Valley Way

East Roseville NSW 2069 Australia

Rosemarie Sadsad

rsadsad@ student.unsw.edu.au
University of New South Wales
Centre for Health Informatics
Coogee Campus

Sydney NSW 2052 Australia

David A. Lyell

david.lyell@ futureechoes.com.au
University of New South Wales
14/108 High Street

Mascot NSW 2020 Australia

Dynamic Experiments for Learning Basic Modeling

D ing the benefits of si to new is not
an easy task. Models that solve real-world dynamic problems may take
weeks, months, or even years to develop. Audiences new to System
Dynamics may have a hard time relating model behavior to the real-world
problem because of their unfamiliarity with the problem being modeled, or
simply because of the separation between their world experience and its
representation in the computer. This workshop teaches the basics of
modeling using dynamic experiments which are brief, exciting, memorable,
and involve workshop participants. The participants act as observers who
collect behavioral data “real-time” from the experiment. The participants
discuss their observations of the experiment and their understanding of the
data. A dynamic hypothesis is drawn out by the workshop moderator as a
Causal Loop Diagram based on the outcome of the discussion. A model
(built prior) is si: to the observed d ics. From the
model behavior, the participants suggest a manageable change to the
experiment which is then rerun (using data collection) and the results are
compared to the simulation model runs.

Why Do Different Methods in Model Analysis
Produce Similar Results?

This workshop will be useful for people with an interest in understanding the
behavior of dynamic systems based on their feedback structure. Recent
studies done to contrast the outcome of alternative techniques for identifying
loop dominance conclude that a significant overlap may exist in the outcome
of various approaches to model analysis. The purpose of the workshop is to
explore the similarities and differences among various methods including,
but not limited to, pathway partici metrics and ei anal:
Methods of analysis will be explored in three dimensions: 1) metrics used to

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Workshop continued

Kim D. Warren

kwarren@ london.edu

London Business School
Strategy Dynamics Solutions Ltd
131-151 Gt Titchfield Street
London W1W SBB UK

Kim D. Warren

kwarren@ london.edu

London Business School
Strategy Dynamics Solutions Ltd
131-151 Gt Titchfield Street
London W1W SBB UK

characterize structure and behavior, 2) selection of dominant structure and,
3) interpretation of results. The workshop will provide the opportunity for
the participants to share their experience in understanding the connection
between dynamic behavior and feedback structure. This workshop will
compare the results of analyzing several models by pathway participation
metrics (implemented in Digest) with those of eigenvalue analysis and
conclude s that the pathway participation metrics and eigenvalue elasticities
may converge in the long run behavior of linear systems.

Strategy Dynamics: Introduction and New
Developments

This workshop will demonstrate the use of system dynamics for tackling
strategy and other management topics. It will be highly interactive, and seek
to demonstrate the approach by working on live management issues from the
audience. Although a repeat of successful workshops from previous years, it
will add some important extensions, including the live use of software to
capture strategy issues and important to k
from other management topics.

Getting Started with MyStrategy Software

This workshop will be an introduction to building system dynamics models
using 'MyStrategy'. The workshop is intended for people who are relatively
new to the field or do not have experience using MyStrategy. The session
will be conducted as a hands-on workshop and will demonstrate basic
techniques for mapping the causal structure of business and other challenges,
and developing simple simulation models. Participants should bring their
own computers with the specific software loaded on them or show up one
half hour early to load the software. People without computers are welcome
to watch, and they will be paired or in small groups to work together with
those who do have computers.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 199

Author Index

Abad, Jeanette C...
Abrishamchi, Ahma
Abyari Ali Abad, Shahram

Beyeler, Walt
Bianchi, Carmine....
Bier, Asmeret

Ackbarow, Theodor.... 03 Bilié, Mirko
Fran 58 Bivona, Enzo...

damides, E D. 5, 186 Black, Laura J.
Afshar, Abbas 144 B field, Robert J. 66
Ahn, 104, 131 Boggs, Peter B.
Aijo, Juha 57 Bonsen, Joost Paul
Akbarpour, 5, 162 Borman, Mark
Akcam, Bahadir 56 B hev, Andrei
Akiyama, Masanori 9 Bosshardt, Mathias 67, 87

Akkermans, Henk A.
Alessi, Stephen .
Altami Mor
Ambroz, Kristjan
An, Lianjun
Andersen, David F...
Andersen, Deborah Lines
Anderson, Edward G.
Arango, Santiago .
Araujo, Ewandro
Arif, Seema
Armenia, Stefano
Arndt, Holger.
Arquitt, Steven P.
Askar, Moh: d
Atilgan, Ali Rana
Atilgan, Canan
Atun, Rifat A. ...
Azar, Ahmad Taher .....

Bakken, Bent Erik.
Bandlow, Alisa ..
Barlas, Yaman
Barlow, Jame:

Barquin, Julian
Bassi Brown, Susan ..
Bassi, Andrea Marcell
Battini, Dari
Bauen, Ausilio
Bayer, Steffen
Beall, Allyson
Bean, Michael

Boyer, Jeffrey ..
Brady, Malcolm

Bragen, Mark J. ...
Braun, Bill
Brierley, Gary
Brinksma, Jim
Bruppacher, Suzanne
Buendia, Fe
Bueno, Newton Paulo.
Bunn, Derek W....
Burns, James R.
Butler, John E.

Cc

Cabrera, Karla Verénica
Caicedo, Santiago...
Camara, Karounga
Campbell, Deborah
Campos-Nanez, Enrique
Cappelli, Dawn M...
Carroll, John Stephen ....
Cassivi, Luc
Cavaleri, Steven A......
Cavana, Robert Y. ...
Centeno, Efraim
Ceresia, Francesco
Chaim, Ricardo Mato:
Chang, Myong-Hun
Chen, Chun-Sh
Chichakly, Karim J.....
Chiong Meza, Catherine
Chirico, Francesco
Chlebus, Edward.

200 25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Author Index continued

Choi, Nam Hee....
‘homiakow, Daniel 71
Choucri, Nazli
Chu, Jianxun
Clark, Thomas D.
Cloutier, Martin

Cody, John

Coker, Richard

Colacchio, Giorgio 159
Colombo, Gianluca 73

Comaschi, Carlo
Conrad, Stephen H...
Cooke, David L
Corbet, Thomas F.....
Cox, Andrew.
Cresswell, Anthony M.....
Cronrath, Eva-Maria

Cruz Barrientos, Margarita Maria...

i Scott

Curry, Gil

Da Silva, Christian Luiz .
Dangerfield, Brian C.
Dattée, Brice A.
Dauelsberg, Lori
Davidsen, Pal I...
Davidson, Frank P.
Deegan, Michael A.
del Moral Simanek, Raul
Delhoum, Salima .
Demirel, Giiven
Depestele, Jochen
Derwisch,
Desai, Soni
Dhawan, Rajat ae
Di Giulio, Vincenzo. HE
Diaz, Fabio André:
Dijkema, G.P.J.
do i Niraldo José 187
Du, Yong
Dudley, Richard G...
Duggan, Jim
Dulac, Nicolas
Duran Encalada, Jorge A.
Dutt, Varun
Dwyer, Michael F.
Dyner, Isaac..

Eberlein, Robert L. ..

Ellison, James 0
El-Minisy, Moh: d 0
Emery, Cécile

Ennis, Marty
Eskici, Burak
Essien, Joyce.
Ewers, Mary ....

Faccio, Maurizio
Fair, Jeanne.
Farsi, Arash.
Fernandez Soto, Pedro....
Fernandez-Lechon, Ramon
Fiddaman, Thomas ..
Figueii Paulo S.
Fincher, Step J.
Fisher, Diana...
FitzPatrick, David.
Fleming, Andrew ..
Fletcher, Michael.
Flom, Ingrid

Forest, Tom Lum.
Foroughi, Hami
Forrester, Jay W.
Forrester, Matthew.
Foster,
Fracassi, Eduardo Pedro ...
Frances, Carol
Franck, Travi:
Franco, Carlos Jaime
Franco, Douglas.
Franx, Arie.
Friedman, Sheldon
Fryling, Margaret

G
Gage, Nathan...
Garagic, Denis 5
Garcia, Rosanna 6

Gary, Shayne ...
Garzia, Carmine
Gass Fritz

Gaudiano, Paolo
Gellynck, Xavier..
Georgantzas, Nicholas C.
Ghaffarzadegan, Navi
Gharakhani, Aref.....
Ghasemi, Mahdi

Eden, Colin
Egner, Joanne C...
Elia, Elie

Gholi +h Khiavi, Arash Agha
Gillespie, David F....
Gillespie, Patrick John

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 201

Author Index continued

Gino, Francesca 66
Gisborne, Paul G. 195
Glass-Husain, Wi
Glenn, Jame:

Jones, Albert 93
Jones, Andrew P. 100, 151, 183
Jones, Charles A.
Jones, Mary C.. |

Wouter 141

Godoy, Manuel Alejandro 133

G ith, Daniel 72, 89 Joseph, Hannah 123

Goliike, Ulrich Juerging, Jan 101
s, Paulo 9

Gonzalez, Cleotilde . 79 K

Gonzalez, Jose J...

Groesser, Stefan N.
GréBler, Andreas .

Hadjipavlou, Savas..

Kaggwa, Martin...
Kakollu, R. Divakar Roy
Kalnins, Juris Roberts..

K Christian Erik 102
Kang, Kyungmin ....
Kapmeier, Florian

Karanfil, Ozge
K E

Hadjis, Andreas
Hannon, Bruci
Haslett, Tim
Haveland, Tone.
Heene, Aime
Heffernan, Mark
Heijkoop, Gerrit
Helal, Magdy
Hirsch, Gary B.
Ho, Yufeng
Homer, Jack B. ..
Hopper, Megan...

Ni

Hovmand, Peter S.....
Howick, Susan
Hsueh, Joe Chiaojen
Hu, Qian
Huang, Lizhen ..
Huang, Yu-Ying

Incioglu, Firat
Isaai, Mot Taghi
Isfanahi, Hamed Tarkesh...
Ivins, W.K.

Jae, Me
Jalali Barsari, Arash...
i, Balaji

Jay, Jason
Jia, Jianguo
Jia, Renan
Jia, Xiaojing.

Joglekar, Nitin R
John, Klaus
Johnson, Suzette

202 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Kearney, James Rhys...
Kelic, Andjelka
Kennedy, Michael S. ..
Kidde, Saul
Kim, Hyunjung
Kim, Hyun-Shil

Knaflic, Andrej
K6berle-Gaiser, Martina
Koblov, Andrey I.
Kofjac, Davorin
Koh, Kyung-ho
Kopainsky, Birgit.
Kossik, Rick
Kovalenko, Dmitry
Krahe, Chri:

Krakenes, Arne
Kulhavy, Rudol
Kulp, Susan L.
Kunc, Martin H.
Kwakkel, Jan H.
Kyriakakis,

L

Laidler-Kylander, Nathalie Katrina
Lane, David C......

Lawless, Bill
Lebcir, Reda M.
LeClaire, Rene.
Lee, Man-Hyung
Lee, Robert C.
Lee, Tsuey-Ping.

Lee, Yen-Chiang Thomas
Lee, Young M.
Leveson, Nancy G.......

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Author Index continued

Levine, Ralph L...

123

Mora Luna, Ana Maria

Li, Anson Kin Tat ll
Li, Shyh-Jane
Liu, Chao-Yueh...
Liu, Min

Liz, Manuel
Lopez, Luis
Lopez-Peiia, Alvaro...
Lounsbury, David W. ......
Lu, Yu
Luna-Reyes, Luis F.

Lusk Brooke, Kathleen
Lyell, David A..
Lyneis, Debra A.
Lyneis, James M. 114, 158, 176, 181
Lyneis, John 114

Maani, Kambiz E.
MacDonald, Roderick H.
Madnick, Stuart
Maier, Frank H.
Mak, Wai-ming.
Makary, Samir...
N i, Leonard A.
Martin Garcia, Juan ..

Martinez Medina, Maria Angélica 134
Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio .115, 116
Marzouk, Ahmed Farghaly 60
Mas khi, Ali Naghi 116

Matthews, Elissa 103
McCutchan, Micah
McDonnell, Geoff.
McGarraghy, Sean
McGregor, Marion 117
McIntosh, Stephen B. 157
McKelvie, Douglas..
Meadows, Dennis
Medina-Borja, Alexandra
Met: d, Arif.
Melhuish, James
Melville, Nigel
Miller, David S.
Milling, Peter M.
Milstein, Bobby
Minami, Nathan A.

Minnich, Dennis A. 121
Mi Vissalia Gpe. 133
Moen, Steinar 93
Moh d, Abdalla S.A. 61

Mojtahedzadeh, Mohammad T.
Mollona, Edoardo
Monk, Davi

Giovan
Moore, Andrew P. ....

John D. W.
Morita, Michiya....
Morris, Don R
Morrison, J. Bradley
Moshref, Masoud
Moxnes, Erling
Munitic, Ante M.

58, 87, 124

N
Nazzari, Sara.
Nelson, Mark R. ..

Nikoofar, Ehsan 127
Noé, Carlo. 141
oO
O'Connor, Marcu: q7
Olaya, Camilo. 127, 150

Oliva, Rogelio.
OReilly, Gerard
O'Rourke, Denis ..
Osgood, Nathaniel
Osipenko, Leeza

Otto, Peter A
Owens, Brandon D. ....
Ozbas, Birnur.
Ozgiin, Onur
Ozolins, Gints......

Packer, David W.
Pala, Ozge.
Paleshi, Arsalan
Papachristos, Georg:
EADAECOrE| OM, aeons Nathaniel .
George P.
Park, Jung-Yeon
Parker, Geoffrey
Parvizian, Jamshid
Pasca, Codrin
ini, Donatella
Passell, Howard...
Pasupathy, Kalyan S
Paucar-Caceres, Alberto
Pavlov, Oleg V. ....
Pearson, David
Pedercini, Matteo.. 192, 133,167, Al
Peplinighs , WAIL .csvsasrewsscensoavsvenrcomavevensorenreeiees
Pérez Salazar, Glori:
Pero, Margherita.
Persona, Al
Phaff, Willem Geert.
Phelan, Michael...

119, 132

132, 183, ig
73

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 203

Author Index continued

Phillips, Larry
Pierson, Kawika
Pieters, Angele.
Plice, Robert K.
Podbregar, Iztok
Polet, Han:

Pomonis, Nikolaos. 5
Pouris, 101
Pruyt, Erik 136, 137
Pugh, Jack 177

Qu, Weishuang....
Quigley, Michael

Saleh, Mot d Mostafa
Salge, Markus
Sallach, David
Sanchez, Juan J
Sanogo, Siaka
Sardiwal, Sangeeta
Sarriegi, Jose Mari
Sato, Jeremy B.
Sawicka, Agata...
Saysel, Ali Kerem
Schaffernicht, Martin F. G....
Scheel, Carlos...
Scheffran, Jurgen.
Schmalz, Martin C

cholz-Reiter, Bernd

- 148, 184, 192
133, 134

Qureshi, Muhammad Azeem....

R

Rabelo, Luis
Radianti, Jaziar .....
Radzicki, Michael J.
Rafferty, Martin... “s
Hazhir 176

Rajan, T. V.
Raman, K.
Randers, Jorgen ...
Raphael, Mike.
Rees, David.
Reimann, Peter ....
Reis, Leonardo Moura...
Resk, Maha

Rhodes, Donna H.

Rich, Eliot
Ri George P.
Robadue, Donald
Roberts, Edward
Rockart, Scott F.
Rogers, Paul
Rohleder, Thomas R....
Roos, Lars-Uno
Rosser, J. Barkley ....
Rossi, Tommaso.
Roth, George.
Rouwette, Etiénne A. J. A. ...
Rudolph, Jenny W. ..

Rwashana S , Agnes 142
Rydzak, Felicjan.. i

henkov, Alexander V. 143

Ss

Sadsad, Rosemari 143, 198
Saeed, Khalid. 144
Salama, Ahmed. 144
Salavitabar, A i 144

204 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Schwarz, Doreen
Sedehi, Habib
Senge, Peter M
pulveda, Jose
Fabio
Shiryaev, Vladimir I. ..
Sianesi, Andrea
Siegel, Michael...
Simon, Martin
Simonin, Bernard
Sivertson, Stuart
Skraba, Andrej ..
Slinger, Jill H.
Sli8kovic, Merica..
Sormani, Eleonora
Soto, Leticia
Soto-Torres, M. Dolor
Spencer, Roberta L.
Sposito, Al di
Stansen, Bonnie Kopolow
Stave, Krystyna A...
Steel, Katherine ....
Stemate, Luminita
Stephens, Craig A...
Sterman, John

Steyn, Jasper 101
jerde, Bjorn 93
Stouten, Hendrik 154
Ik Jiirgen 154

Strong, David
Struben, Jeroen
Stuntz, Lees N.
Sufié, Albert
Supple, Derek R.
Sveen, Finn Olav.
Sweeney, Linda Booth.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Author Index continued

Tajrishi, Amir T.
Takahashi, Yutaka
Tan, Burcu
Tawileh, Ana:
Taylor, Ivan
Taylor, Timothy R.B.
Tebaldi, Claudio ..
Tempel, Michael
Thi i Prakash R. 115
Thompson, Kate J...
Tian, Fan,

avid...

ic, Marko
Trailer, Jeff W. .
Triantis, Kostas.

Todd, D:
T

Wakeland, Wayne...
Wang, Cuixia
Wang, Qifan ....
Wang, Wei Yang ..

164

Wang, Yun. 148
Warren, Kim D.... .... 164, 165, 199
Weber, Lars 165
Weil, Henry Birdseye...

Weiss, Alan.

Weitert, Christian.
Whalley, Jason
Wheat, David...
White, Chri:
Whitmore, Andrew
Wilks, Jason M. ...
Williams, Ddembe W.
Williams, Travis ...

104, 142

Trifonov, Iavor Winz, Ine:
Trzeciak, Randall F. Wokaun, Alexander...
Tsai, An-ho i Eric F.
Tseng, Ya-tsai Wood, Robert E.
Turkgulu, Burak Work, Brent
Wu, Bing.
U
Ulli-Beer, Silvia Astrid... Y
Yaghootkar, Kazem 169
Vv ¥ hi, Kaoru 169

Vaishnav, Chintan ...
Vakili, Keyvan..
Van Craeynest, Kri
van Daalen, Cornelia
Van Den Durpel, Luc.
van Hooff, Paul
van Oppen, Willem
van Zijderveld, Erik.
Vanderperren, Els
Vaziri, Hoda
Vazquez, Margarita .
Vennix, Jac A. M.
Bart

Virtala, Pertti
Voyer, John J
Vriens, Dirk

Wahba, Khaled. 61, 80, 144, 163

Yang, Huiming....
Yasarcan, Hakan
Ye, ine Ming-Shih 170
Ying, Wenjun .. .

Young, Showing H......
Yu, Jaekook
Yiicel, Géneng.
Yusuf, Ijaz

Zahn, Erich K. O.
Zelinski, Ed.
Zhang, Ligin
Zhang, Qi
Zimmermann, Nicole.
Zock, Alexander ..

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 205

Sys tem
Dynamics
Society

Proceedings of the
25" International Conference
and
50 Anniversary Celebration

July 29 — August 2, 2007
Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Conference Host:

System Dynamics Group
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sloan School of Management
Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA

Conference Partners:
PA Consulting Group
Worldwide
Conference proceedings sponsored by:
Kolbenschmidt Pierburg
Worldwide

VENTANA Jon Stan
systeMs, inc. Rogelio Oliva
Robin S. Langer

Jennifer I. Rowe
http://www.vensim.com Joan M. Yanni


Proceedings
of the
25" International Conference of the
System Dynamics Society
and

50" Anniversary Celebration

Proceedings
of the
25" Intemational Conference of the
System Dynamics Society
and

50" Anniversary Celebration

July 29 - August 2, 2007
Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Edited by:
John Sterman, Rogelio Oliva,
Robin S. Langer, Jennifer I. Rowe and Joan M. Y anni

System
Dynamics
Society

©2007, The System Dynamics Society

ISBN 978-0-9745329-7-4

To obtain additional copies of these proceedings, or to learn more about the System Dynamics Society
and the international research conferences, contact:

Roberta L. Spencer, Executive Director

System Dynamics Society

Milne 300 - Rockefeller College

University at Albany, State University of New Y ork
135 Westen Avenue

Albany, New Y ork 12222, United States of America
Phone: + 1.518.442.3865

Fax: + 1.518.442.3398

Email: system.dynamics@ albany.edu

Website: www.systemdynamics.org

Table of Contents

Conference Schedul Handout
Welcome 1
Host, Partners and Or izing C 3
Award Committees 4
Li Reviewer: a}
Vol s 15
Acknowled of Sp 19
Sy ‘s and Exhibitors 22
SD Career Link SI
Diagram Slam 52
2008 Athens, Greece Conference A it 53
Reading Supporting Material 54
Abstracts*: Listed alphabetically by first author within sections
Papers: Parallel and Poster. 55
Plenary Sessions 174
Special and Convened Sessions 178
Chapter and Special Interest Group Poster Sessions .........:.c.seseeseseseeseeeseeeseees 186
Workshops 194
*Eull works as provided are available on the Society website after the conference.
Index of Authors 200
Conference Venue Floor Plan Handout


Welcome

Dear Colleagues,

Welcome to the 25th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. This year we
return to the birthplace of System Dynamics in order to celebrate 50 years of work in the field.
The growth in interest, applications and activity over that time has been tremendous and
rewarding, but it does mean that we don’t fit comfortably in the hotels closest to MIT. We hope
you will enjoy the Seaport and nearby Boston Harbor.

This year once again the program is a testament to the breadth of applicability of the work done
50 years ago that lead to the publication of “Industrial Dynamics: A Major Breakthrough for
Decision Makers” in the Harvard Business Review. Conference participants come from over 45
different countries. Over the next four days you will have a chance to present, listen to and
discuss system dynamics work presented by academics and practitioners from around the world.

There are a number of activities that will mark the 50th anniversary. Some are in the schedule,
and some will be surprises. Many generations of system dy icists will be in d The
conference is a wonderful opportunity to meet an amazing collection of people. We encourage
you to walk up and say hello to everyone — generally we are a pretty friendly bunch.

To further increase your enjoyment of the conference we have also scheduled a variety of social
events including an informal gathering during registration, a “Neighborhoods of Boston” buffet
on Monday evening, and the Conference Banquet and System Dynamics Talent Show on
Tuesday. We welcome those who may be accompanying conference participants but not
attending the formal sessions. We hope that you will take part in the special events and enjoy
the attractions of Boston and New England. There will be organized activities including a
Freedom Trail walking tour and a guided tour of the MIT campus, where system dynamics and
so many other vital inventions began.

This year 424 volunteer reviewers screened and commented on a record number of submissions.
In addition, many dozens of volunteers worked many hours to ensure a successful conference.
Without their commitment our conference would be impossible. A special thanks goes to all
who helped.

In addition to all our other sponsors and our conference host, the System Dynamics Group at the
MIT Sloan School of Management, we are also very fortunate this year to have two conference
partners, PA Consulting Group and Kolbenschmidt Pierburg. We sincerely appreciate the
enthusiasm and support of all our sponsors.

We hope that you find the conference stimulating and rewarding. We ask that you bring to our
attention anything that may help us to ensure the success of the current conference, as well as
future ones. Thank you for attending, and, once more, welcome!

Best wishes from the conference organizing committee,
Bob Eberlein, Rogelio Oliva, John Sterman, Jack Homer and Roberta Spencer

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society and
50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Host

Conference Host: System Dynamics Group
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sloan School of Management
Cambridge, Massachusetts USA

Partners

Conference Partners: PA Consulting Group Kolbenschmidt Pierburg
Worldwide Locations Worldwide Locations

Organizing Committee

Conference Chair: Robert L. Eberlein
Ventana Systems, Inc.
Harvard, Massachusetts USA

Program Co-Chair: Program Co-Chair:
John D. Sterman Rogelio Oliva

System Dynamics Group Mays Business School

MIT Sloan School of Management Texas A&M University
Cambridge, Massachusetts USA College Station, Texas USA
Workshop Chair: Conference Manager:
Jack B. Homer Roberta L. Spencer
Homer Consulting System Dynamics Society
Voorhees, New Jersey USA Albany, New York USA

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Award Committees

2007 Dana Meadows Award

R. Joel Rahn, Chair

Robert Y. Cavana
Victoria University of Wellington

Andrew Ford
Washington State University

John D. W. Morecroft
London Business School

Krystyna A. Stave

University of Nevada Las Vegas
John D. Sterman

System Dynamics Group

MIT Sloan School of Management

Erich K. O. Zahn
Universitat Stuttgart

2007 Jay W. Forrester Award

Jac A. M. Vennix, Chair
Nijmegen School of Management
Radboud University Nijmegen
Jack Homer

Homer Consulting

Peter M. Milling

Mannheim University

John D. W. Morecroft
London Business School

John D. Sterman
System Dynamics Group
MIT Sloan School of Management

2007 System Dynamics Applications Award

James M. Lyneis, Chair
Worcester Polytechnic Institute

J. Bradley Morrison
Brandeis University

Kim D. Warren
London Business School

50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Eric F. Wolstenholme
Symmetric SD Limited

Erich K. O. Zahn
Universitat Stuttgart

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Submission Reviewers

Ahmed AbdelTawad
AbdelGawad
Egyptian Cabinet IDSC

Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid
Naval Postgraduate School

Emmanuel D. Adamides
University of Patras

John F, Affeldt
Booz Allen Hamilton

Ashish Agarwal
Indira Gandhi National Open
University

Fadl Mohammed Ahmed
Cairo University

Bahadir Akcam
University at Albany

Mahmood Alborzi
Azad Islamic University

Alex Focus Alexander
University of Bergen

Raed Al-Qirem
University of Sunderland

Monica A. Altamirano
Delft University of
Technology

Richard Althouse
David Erway Group

Kristjan Ambroz
Vanguard Strategy

Lianjun An
IBM

Lascelles Anderson
University of Illinois at
Chicago

Santiago Arango
University of Bergen

Carlos A. Ariza
PA Consulting Group

Stefano Armenia
Tor Vergata University Rome

Steven P. Arquitt
University of Queensland

Daniel J. W. Arthur
University of Surrey

Mohamed Askar
American University in Cairo

George A. Backus
Sandia National Laboratories

Walid S. Badr
Mohaseboon

Bent Erik Bakken
Norwegian Defence
Education Command

Bjorn T. Bakken
Norwegian Defence
Leadership Institute

Himadri Banerji
Reliance Energy Ltd

Yaman Barlas
Bogazi¢i University

John A. Barton
John Barton Consulting

Pawel Bartoszezuk
System Research Institute

Andrea Marcello Bassi
Millennium Institute

Steffen Bayer
Imperial College London

Todd BenDor
University of Illinois

Chiara Bernardi
Cattaneo University LIUC

Walt Beyeler
Sandia National Laboratories

Enzo Bivona
University of Palermo

Jason W. Black
GE Global Research

Laura J. Black
Montana State University

J. Robert Bois
Lockheed Martin Corporation

Graziella C. Bonadia
Fundacgao CPqD

Andrei Borshchev
XJ Technologies

Jeffrey Boyer
Plug Power Inc

Peter K. Bradl
University of Applied
Sciences Wuerzburg

Malcolm Brady
Dublin City University

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 5

Reviewers continued

Bill Braun
Cleveland Clinic

Klaus Breuer
Johannes-Gutenberg-Univ
Mainz

Rod Brown
Strategy Dynamics
Consulting

Fernando Buendia
University of the Americas
Puebla

Newton Paulo Bueno
Federal University of Vigosa

James Burke
Argonne National Laboratory

Carlos Capelo
ISCTE

Dawn M. Cappelli
Carnegie Mellon University

Jim Carlton
Newcastle Mater Hospital

Kenneth H. Carpenter
Governor's Traffic Safety
Commission

Angelo Caruso

Annick Castiaux
University of Namur

Steven A. Cavaleri
Central Connecticut State
University

Edoardo Cavalieri-D'Oro
MIT

Robert Y. Cavana
Victoria University of
Wellington

Francesco Ceresia
University of Palermo

Bipin Chadha
Coensys Inc

Catherine Chiong Meza
Delft University of
Technology

Jianxun Chu
University of Science &
Technology of China

Gregory J. Clark
Ford Motor Company

Gianluca Colombo
University of Lugano

Stephen H. Conrad
Sandia National Laboratories

Marcello Contestabile
Imperial College London

David L. Cooke
University of Calgary

Matthew A. Cronin
George Mason University

Didier Cumenal
ISC Paris

Stephen Curram
HVR Consulting Services
Ltd

Christian Luiz Da Silva
UniFAE

6 50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Brian C. Dangerfield
University of Salford

Giovanni M. de Holanda
Fundagao CPqD

Michael L. Deaton
James Madison University

Salima Delhoum
Universitat Bremen

Julia M. Di Stefano
Southern New Hampshire
University

George Dikos
Eugenides Group

Gékhan Dogan
MIT

Richard G. Dudley

Jim Duggan
National University of
Ireland Galway

Radboud J. Duintjer
Tebbens
Harvard University

Josko Dvornik
University of Split

Michael F. Dwyer
University of Nevada Las
Vegas

Isaac Dyner
Universidad Nacional de
Colombia

Robert L. Eberlein
Ventana Systems Inc

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Reviewers continued

Marie Elf
Chalmers University of
Technology

Arun Abraham Elias
Victoria University of
Wellington

R. Evan Ellis
Booz Allen Hamilton Inc

James Ellison
Sandia National Laboratories

John Elter
Plug Power Inc

Philip C. Emmi
University of Utah

Martijn Eskinasi
Atrivé

Joern W. Ewaldt
Barkawi & Partner

Jan Faber
Utrecht University

Jeanne Fair
Los Alamos National
Laboratory

Laércio Ferracioli
Federal University of Espirito

Santo

Lars Finskud
Vanguard Strategy

Diana Fisher
Wilson High School

Michael Fletcher

Fred Flett
JENTEC International

Rogerio Fonseca
Santovito
University of Sao Paulo

Andrew Ford
Washington State University

David N. Ford
Texas A&M University

Tom Lum Forest
Prometheal Systems

Hamid Foroughi
Sharif University of
Technology

Jay Forrest
Jay Forrest Consulting
Strategist

Jay W. Forrester
MIT

Craig Forster
University of Utah

Travis Franck
MIT

Douglas Franco
Econoinvest

Margaret Ann
Fulenwider
CRA International

Valerie Gacogne
Complexio

Peter L. Galbraith
University of Queensland

Jorge Galindo
Dovel Technologies

Rosanna Garcia
Northeastern University

Shayne Gary
Australian Graduate School
of Management

Carmine Garzia
University of Lugano

Fritz Gassmann
Paul Scherrer Institute

Nicholas C. Georgantzas
Fordham University Business
Schools

Ajish George
Center for Functional
Genomics

Navid Ghaffarzadegan
University at Albany

Sameh Ibrahim Gharib
University of Bergen

Anthony H. G. Gill
Phrontis Limited

David F. Gillespie
Washington University in St
Louis

Will Glass-Husain
Forio Business Simulations

Dan Goldner
Ventana Systems Inc

Cleotilde Gonzalez
Carnegie Mellon University

Jose J. Gonzalez
Agder University College

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 7

Reviewers continued

Stefan N. Groesser
University of Berne

Andreas GréBler
Radboud University
Nijmegen

Carolus Griitters
Radboud University
Nijmegen

Burak Giineralp
Stanford University

John W. Gunkler
HPVS LLC

Workneh Hailegiorgis
Siemens

Roger I. Hall
University of Manitoba

Stefan Hallberg
Templog

Charles C. Han
Tamkang University

Hérdur V. Haraldsson
Lund University

Tim Haslett
Monash University

Mark Heffernan
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd

John F. Heinbokel
CIESD LLP

Magdy Helal
University of Central Florida

Hugo A. Hernandez
PDVSA

Gary B. Hirsch
Creator of Learning
Environments

Marna Hoard
Medical Reserve Corps

Maik Hollmann
University of Paderborn

Paul Holmstrém
Paul Holmstrom
Management AB

Siang Lee Hong
Pennsylvania State
University

Peter S. Hoymand
Washington University in St
Louis

Naiyi Hsiao
National Chengchi University

Rueylin Hsiao
National University of
Singapore

Juan M. Huerta
Prospective Decision Models
Inc

Margarita Hurtado
Hernandez

Universidad Panamericana

Lihlian Hwang
Ming Chuan University

Inguna Ievina

Petri Helo Latvia University of
University of Vaasa Agriculture
8 50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

C. Sherry Immediato
Society for Organizational
Learning

Jacob J. Jacobson
Idaho National Laboratory

Greg Jacobus

Thomas Jagalski
Bremen University

Balaji Janamanchi
Texas A&M International
University

Arthur Janssen
ATEL

Eva Jensen
Swedish National Defence
College

Nitin R. Joglekar
Boston University

Paul E. Johnson
University of Minnesota

Scott T. Johnson
BP

Andrew P. Jones
Sustainability Institute

Charles A. Jones
University of Massachusetts
Boston

Lee Jones
Ventana Systems

Wouter Jongebreur
Significant BV

Andreas Patric Jost
DaimlerChrysler AG

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Reviewers continued

Phil Joyce
Swinburne University of
Technology

Jan Juerging
Mannheim University

Robert Kallenberg
Porsche AG

Christian Erik
Kampmann
Copenhagen Business School

Florian Kapmeier
PA Consulting Group

Ozge Karanfil
McGill University

Michel Karsky

Hans Dieter Kasperidus
UFZ Leipzig Halle

Evangelos Katsamakas
Fordham University

Elizabeth K. Keating
Harvard University

Andjelka Kelic
Sandia National Laboratories

Scott Keller
Greer Black Company

Andreas Kemper
European Business School

Naeem U. Khan
University of New South
Wales

Doahoon Kim
Sookmyung Woman's
University

Dong-Hwan Kim
Chung Ang University

Hyunjung Kim
University at Albany

Sang-Joon Kim
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Peter Klaas
Agrogaarden

Miroljub Kljaji¢é
University of Maribor

Andrey I. Koblov
South-Ural State University

Klaus Kocher
Kocher & Gaide

Ulli H. Konig
RWE Energy AG

Davorin Kofjac
University of Maribor

Libor Kolacek
Czech Technical University

Birgit Kopainsky
University of Bergen

Victor V. Korobitsin
Omsk State University

Martin H. Kune
Universidad Adolfo Ibafiez

Ulrich La Roche
La Roche Consulting

Peter Lacey
Whole Systems Partnership

David C. Lane
London School of Economics
& Poli Sci

Richard Langheim
Ramapo College of New
Jersey

Sharon Lansing
New York State Div of Crim
Justice

Ted J. Lawrence
University at Albany

Rene LeClaire
Los Alamos National
Laboratory

Man-Hyung Lee
Chungbuk National
University

Myoung Ho Lee
Han-Kuk University of
Foreign Studies

Tsuey-Ping Lee
Tunghai University

Carlos A. Legna
La Laguna University

Ralph L. Levine
Michigan State University

Lanhai Li
whatIf? Technologies Inc

Shyh-Jane Li
National Sun Yat-Sen
University

Chien-Liang Lin
National Kaohsiung First
University

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 9

Reviewers continued

Keith Thomas Linard
Moorabool Shire Council

Ralf Lippold
BMW AG Plant Leipzig

Howard Lipson
Carnegie Mellon University

Jingjiang Liu
Zhejiang University City
College

Corey Lofdahl
BAE Systems

Luis Lépez
INCAE Graduate School of
Business

David W. Lounsbury
Memorial Sloan-Kettering
Cancer Center

Mohamed Loutfi
University of Sunderland

Gregory A. Love
MITRE Corporation

Weifeng Lu
Nanchang Insititute of
Technology

Luis F. Luna-Reyes
Universidad de las Americas
Puebla

Yufeng Luo
Hohai University

Kambiz E. Maani
University of Auckland

Roderick H. MacDonald
Initiative for System
Dynamics in the Public
Sector

Daniel MacInnis
Raytheon Missile Systems

Louis Macovsky
Dynamic BioSystems LLC

Mohammad Majdalawi
Arab Organization for
Agricultural Development

Abhijit Mandal
Warwick Business School

Martin E. Maren
Global Dynamic Systems

Jason Markham
New Zealand Defence Force

Gianliborio G. Marrone
Juan Martin Garcia
Ignacio J. Martinez-
Moyano

Argonne National Laboratory
Ali Naghi Mashayekhi
Sharif University of
Technology

Geoff McDonnell
Adaptive Care Systems

Debra A. Lyneis

Creative Learning Exchange Stephen B. McIntosh
Cardiff University

James M. Lyneis

Worcester Polytechnic Douglas McKelvie

Institute

10 50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Alan Charles McLucas
Australian Defence Force
Academy

Dennis Meadows
Laboratory for Interactive
Learning

Alexandra Medina-Borja
University of Puerto Rico at
Mayaguez

Arif Mehmood
United Arab Emirates
University

James Melhuish
BAE Systems

Carlos Manuel Méndez
Acosta
Universidad de Belgrano

Esther Menezes
Fundagao CPqD

Luis Javier Miguel
University of Valladolid

Thar A. Miklashevich
Belarusian National
Technical Univ

Stanislava Mildeova
University of Economics in
Prague

Peter M. Milling
Mannheim University

James I. Mills
University of Utah

Bobby Milstein
Centers for Disease Control
& Prevention

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Reviewers continued

Nathan A. Minami
US Army

Jonathan D. Moizer
University of Plymouth

Mohammad T.
Mojtahedzadeh
Attune Group Inc

Edoardo Mollona
Universita degli Studi di
Bologna

Giovan Battista
Montemaggiore
University of Palermo

Tae Hoon Moon
Chung Ang University

Manuel Mora
Autonomous University of
Aguascalientes

Ana Maria Mora Luna
Medellin Metropolitan Area

Michiya Morita
Gakushuin University

Marciano Morozowski
Filho
W!se Systems

Erling Moxnes
University of Bergen

Mara Mulinari
Universidade Federal do
Espirito Santo

Ante M. Munitic
University of Split

Frank K Murdock
FKM Consulting

Rodney S. Myers
US Navy Personnel
Command

Magne Myrtveit
Dynaplan AS

Dharmaraj Navaneetha
Krishnan
MIT

Serge Henri Nehme

Paul Newton
Boeing Company

Xiaowen Ni
Nanjing Normal University
High School

Patricia Ochoa
HEC - Université de
Lausanne

Cristiane Ogushi
Fundacgao CPqD

Camilo Olaya
Universidad de los Andes

David O'Neal
Management Alternatives

Gerard O'Reilly
Bell Laboratories Alcatel-
Lucent

Nathaniel Osgood
University of Saskatchewan

Leeza Osipenko
University of Warwick

Nordin B. Othman
University Putra Malaysia

Peter A. Otto
Dowling College

Alexander Outkin
Los Alamos National
Laboratory

Ozgur Ozkan

Powersim Solutions

David W. Packer
Systems Thinking
Collaborative

Ozge Pala
Radboud University
Nijmegen

Theresa Pardo
University at Albany

Sang Hyun Park
University of Nebraska
Lincoln

Jamshid Parvizian
Isfahan University of
Technology

Kalyan S. Pasupathy
University of Missouri

Alberto Paucar-Caceres
Manchester Metropolitan
University

Oleg V. Pavlov
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Janecke Pemmer
Powersim Software AS

Francisco J. Perez
OptimesGroup

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society i

Reviewers continued

Gloria Pérez Salazar
Tecnologico de Monterrey

Alessandro Persona
University of Padua

Steve Peterson
The Peterson Group

Lazaros V. Petrides
University of Salford

David G. Pfeiffer
Option Six

Seckin Polat
Istanbul Technical University

Nikolaos Pomonis
University of Patras

P. Jeffrey Potash
CIESD LLP

Davide Provenzano
University of Bergen

Erik Pruyt
Delft University of
Technology

Ying Qian
Agder University College

Rob Quaden
Carlisle Public Schools

Hassan Qudrat-Ullah
York University

Muhammad Azeem
Qureshi
University of Bergen

Hal Rabbino
Strategic Clarity

Hazhir Rahmandad
Virginia Tech

R. Joel Rahn

F. Vittorio Raimondi
Vanguard Strategy

Kk. Raman
Boris Ramos

Jorgen Randers
Norwegian School of
Management

Juan C. Rego
Nat’! Research Council of
Argentina

André Reichel

C. Michael Reilly
Investment Process Modeler

Eliot Rich
University at Albany

George P. Richardson
University at Albany

John M. Richardson
American University

James L. Ritchie-
Dunham
Institute for Strategic Clarity

Donald Robadue
Coastal Resources Center

Scott F. Rockart
Duke University

12 50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Lewlyn Rodrigues
Manipal Institute of
Technology

Thomas R. Rohleder
University of Calgary

Jay K. Rosengard
Harvard University

Etiénne A. J. A.
Rouwette
Radboud University
Nijmegen

Guillermo Rueda
Portland State University

Alexander V. Ryzhenkov
Russian Academy of
Sciences

Khalid Saeed
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Mohamed Mostafa Saleh
Cairo University

Javier Santos
Tecnun - University of
Navarra

Rui Ferreira Santos
New University of Lisbon

Kemal Sarica
Bogazici University

Jose Mari Sarriegi
Tecnun - University of
Navarra

Agata Sawicka
Agder University College

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Reviewers continued

Ali Kerem Saysel
Bogazi¢i University

Martin F. G.
Schaffernicht
Universidad de Talca

Tim Scheffmann

Michael Schwandt
Virginia Polytechnic Inst &
State Univ

Markus Schwaninger
University of St Gallen

Habib Sedehi
University of Rome

Maria Cristina Serrano
Universidad Autonoma de
Bucaramanga

Michelle Shields
Telecom New Zealand

Timothy J. Shimeall
CERT Situational Awareness
Team

William Siemer
Cornell University

Mong Soon Sim
DSO National Laboratories

Martin Simon
ipgroup

Andrej Skraba
University of Maribor

Birgitte Snabe
Mannheim University

M. Dolores Soto-Torres
Universidad de Valladolid

J. Michael Spector
Florida State University
Thomas Spengler
Technische Universitat
Braunschweig

Yeoryios A. Stamboulis
Krystyna A. Stave
University of Nevada Las

Vegas

Katherine Steel
MIT

Jiirgen Strohhecker
HfB Business School of
Finance and Mgt

Jeroen Struben
MIT

Lees N. Stuntz
Creative Learning Exchange

Toru Suetake
Japan Future Research Center

Marek Susta
Proverbs Corporation

Mats G. Svensson
Lund University

Fabian Szulanski

Mihaela Tabacaru
University of Bergen

Md Yusoff Taib
Zetta Consultants Sdn Bhd

Yutaka Takahashi
Senshu University

Burcu Tan
University of Texas at Austin

Muhammad Tasrif
Bandung Institute of
Technology
Kathryn S. Taylor

Timothy R.B. Taylor
Texas A&M University

Abdi Suryadinata Telaga
Astra Honda Motor

Victor Thombs
Decision Dynamics Inc

James P. Thompson

Kate J. Thompson
University of Sydney

Kimberly Thompson
Harvard University/MIT

Warren W. Tignor
Jeff W. Trailer
California State University
Chico

Denis Tréek
Jozef Stefan Institute

W. Scott Trees
Siena College

Kostas Triantis
Virginia Tech

Ya-tsai Tseng
Tunghai University

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 13

Reviewers continued

Yi-Ming Tu
National Sun Yat-Sen
University

David Turbow
University of California
Irvine

Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
PSI

Imrana A. Umar
Powersim Solutions

Keyvan Vakili
Sharif University of
Technology

Cornelia van Daalen
Delft University of
Technology

Luc Van Den Durpel
LISTO bvba

Theo van Mullekom

Nuno Videira
New University of Lisbon

Klaus Ole Vogstad
Agder Energi

Andreas Vox

John J. Voyer
University of Southern Maine

Wayne Wakeland
Portland State University

Robert J. Walker
Delsys Research Group Inc
Qifan Wang

Fudan University

Wei-Tsong Wang
National Cheng Kung
University

Kim D. Warren
London Business School

Henry Birdseye Weil
MIT

David Wheat
University of Bergen

Anthony S. White
Middlesex University

Elin Whitney-Smith
Netalyst Inc

Sanith Wijesinghe
New England Complex
Systems Institute

Ines Winz
University of Auckland

Ellen Wolfe
Resero Consulting

Kazem Yaghootkar
Manchester Business School

Kaoru Yamaguchi
Doshisha University
Athanasios
Yannacopoulos
University of the Aegean

Seung-Jun Yeon
Electronics and Telecom
Research Institute

Carlos Yepez
Brandeis University

Joseph Yoon
Institute for International
Commerce

William Young
US Air Force

Géneng Yiicel
Delft University of
Technology

Aldo Zagonel
Sandia National Laboratories

Erich K. O. Zahn
Universitat Stuttgart

Longbin Zheng
University of Bergen

Agnieszka Ziomek

Yangang Xing Poznan University of
Khaled Wahba University of Dundee Economics
Cairo University conomics
Feifei Xu
University of Bergen
If you are ii in reviewing for future r please contact the System Dynamics Society at
system. alt luding your name, contact information and area(s) of expertise.
14 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Volunteers

Jeanette C. Abad

PA Consulting Group
Freedom Trail Walking Tour
Guide

Bahadir Akcam
University at Albany
Student Volunteer

Monica A. Altamirano
Delft University of
Technology

Session Reporter

Abril Alejandria Alvaro
ITESM Campus Guadalajara
Student Volunteer

Edward G. Anderson
University of Texas
Thread Chair

Stefano Armenia
Tor Vergata University Rome
Session Reporter

Victor Auterio
Boeing Company
Session Reporter

Souleyman Bah
e-integrate
Conference Photographer

Bent Erik Bakken
Norwegian Defence
Academy

Thread Chair

Binita Bhattacharjee
BP
Session Reporter

Laura J. Black
Montana State University
Thread Chair

Joost Paul Bonsen
MIT Visiting Scholar
MIT Waling Tour Guide

Bill Braun
Cleveland Clinic
Session Reporter

Derek Burrows
Evans & Peck
Session Reporter

Deborah Campbell
System Dynamics Society
CareerLink Bulletin Board
Coordinator

Myong-Hun Chang
Cleveland State University
Session Reporter

Dean L. Christensen
Cyber Learning Corporation
Conference Photographer

Jianxun Chu

Univ of Science &
Technology of China
Session Reporter

Henry P. Cole
University of Alaska
Fairbanks

Session Reporter

Gianluca Colombo
University of Lugano
Session Reporter

Diana Damyanova
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Student Volunteer

Giiven Demirel
Bogazici University
Session Reporter

Rajat Dhawan
University of Sydney
Session Reporter

Julia M. Di Stefano
Southern New Hampshire
University

Thread Chair

Vedat G. Diker
University of Maryland
Thread Chair

Jim Duggan
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Session Reporter

Robert L. Eberlein
Ventana Systems Inc
Web-based Submission
System

Burak Eskici
Bogazici University
Session Reporter
Student Volunteer

David R. Exelby

HVR Consulting Services
Ltd

Thread Chair

Thomas Fiddaman
Ventana Systems
Thread Chair

Tom Lum Forest
Prometheal Systems
Session Reporter

Shayne Gary

Australian Graduate School
of Mgmt

Thread Chair

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

15

Vol Ss inued

Carmine Garzia
University of Lugano
Session Reporter

Navid Ghaffarzadegan
University at Albany
Session Reporter

Student Volunteer
CareerLink Bulletin Board
Assistant

Usman A. Ghani
Advanced Integrated Mgt
Strategies LLP

Session Reporter

Paulo Gongalves
University of Miami
Thread Chair

Jose J. Gonzalez
Agder University
Thread Chair

Stefan N. Groesser
University of Berne
Session Reporter
PhD Colloquium
Coordinator

James Hacunda
EMC
Session Reporter

Savas Hadjipavlou
Home Office
Session Reporter

Tim Haslett

Monash University

Beer Game World
Championship Coordinator

Mark Heffernan
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
Session Reporter

John F. Heinbokel

Magdy Helal
University of Central Florida
Session Reporter

Gary B. Hirsch
Creator of Learning
Environments
Session Reporter
Thread Chair

Jack B. Homer
Homer Consulting
Thread Chair
Modeling Assistance
Workshop Organizer

Megan Hopper
University of Nevada Las
Vegas

Session Reporter

Niyousha Hosseinichimeh
University at Albany
Student Volunteer

Peter S. Hovmand
Washington University in St
Louis

Session Reporter

Susan Howick
University of Strathclyde
Session Reporter

Qian Hu
University of Bergen
Session Reporter

Lizhen Huang
Fuzhou University
Session Reporter

Eva Jensen

Swedish National Defence
College

Thread Chair

Andrew P. Jones

CIESD LLP Sustainability Institute

Thread Chair Diagram Slam Coordinator
System Dynamics Talent
Show

16 50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

July 29

Maggie Kean
Keanco
Session Reporter

Hyunjung Kim
University at Albany
Volunteer Coordinator

Birgit Kopainsky
University of Bergen
Session Reporter

Rudolf Kulhavy
Academy of Sciences of the
Czech Rep

Session Reporter

Man-Hyung Lee
Chungbuk National
University

Session Reporter

Chao-Yueh Liu
University of Bergen
Student Volunteer

Kathleen Lusk Brooke
Center for the Study of
Success

Session Reporter

John Lyneis
MIT
Student Volunteer

Debra A. Lyneis
Creative Learning Exchange
Session Reporter

Roderick H. MacDonald
Initiative for SD in the Public
Sector

Modeling Assistance
Workshop Organizer

Marion McGregor
Canadian Memorial
Chiropractic College
Session Reporter

August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Volunteers continued

James Melhuish
BAE Systems
Navigator Program
Organizer

Erling Moxnes
University of Bergen
Thread Chair

Charles K. Nartey
University of Ghana
Session Reporter

Okechukwu Stanlislous
Nnoli

University of Strathclyde
Session Reporter

Michael Okrent
Southern Connecticut State
University

Session Reporter

Nathaniel Osgood
University of Saskatchewan
Thread Chair

Hye Yeon Park
MIT
Student Volunteer

Oleg V. Pavlov
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Session Reporter
Thread Chair

Sergio A. Pefialoza
Altar Consultores SC
Session Reporter

P. Jeffrey Potash
CIESD LLP
Thread Chair

Devendra Potnis
University at Albany
Student Volunteer

Jack Pugh

Retired

Conference Photographer
Webmaster

Michael J. Radzicki
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Thread Chair

Hazhir Rahmandad
Virginia Tech

Session Reporter
Workshop Coordinator

R. Joel Rahn
Session Reporter
Thread Chair

C. Michael Reilly
Investment Process Modeler
Session Reporter

George P. Richardson
University at Albany
Thread Chair

Scott F. Rockart

Duke University

Session Reporter

Thread Chair

Diagram Slam Coordinator

Jose Mari Sarriegi
Tecnun - University of
Navarra

Thread Chair

Jeremy B. Sato
Washington University
Session Reporter

Bonnie Kopolow Stansen
Washington University in St.
Louis

Session Reporter

Anas Tawileh
Cardiff University
Session Reporter

Jeff W. Trailer
California State University
Chico

Thread Chair

Burak Turkgulu
University at Albany
Student Volunteer

Chintan Vaishnav
MIT

PhD Colloquium
Coordinator

John J. Voyer
University of Southern Maine
Session Reporter

Ming-pin Wang
MITRE Corporation
Session Reporter

Helen Wolfe
Post University
Session Reporter

Géneng Yiicel
Delft University of
Technology
Session Reporter

Aldo Zagonel
Sandia National Laboratories
Session Reporter

Nicole Zimmermann
Mannheim University
Student Volunteer

Many thanks to every volunteer for their time and energy.
Our apologies if we inadvertently omitted anyone from this extensive list. If you are interested in
volunteering for future conferences, please contact the System Dynamics Society at
system.dynamics@albany.edu; include your name and contact information.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 17

Acknowledgment of Sponsors

Conference Host

=_——rs System Dynamics Group
NUTT )=Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MITSloan Sloan School of Management

MANAGEMENT

Conference Partners

Sponsor of Banquet and

Consulting ="
Grou

KOLBENSCHMIDT
spiior 9 erat spt PIERBURG

and Neighborhoods of Boston Buffet

Major Sponsors

Sandia
National
Laboratories VENTANA

A Department of Energy syste MS, ine.

National Laboratory

Sponsor of Chapter and Sponsor of Printing Conference
Special Interest Group Special Poster Session Proceedings and PhD Colloquium

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 19

Mid-level Sponsors

*$ Forio
e

Business Simulations

Sponsor of Audiovisual Services

Advanced Distance Learning Network

Sponsor of Thursday Workshops

Exhibitors

Amber Blocks, Ltd.

e-integrate

Golds®:

SAN |
G7 'SEe

a 2 | -?
AA OHASEAOON?
Business and Financial Consultancies
Egypt & Middle East.

Advanced Integrated
Management Strategies, LLC. and

Leading Thought. Leading Business.

Ge,

INTERNATIONAL

a
Nn EVANS & PECK

think through the future

o

HEALTH MARKET SCIENCE

JantzMorgan

PEARSON |.

Education
New Zealand

in association with

Kambiz Maani and Bob Cavana

20 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Exhibitors continued

4) ww
Powersim PaQwenksim
Raytheon S
Integrated Defense Systems ="

organizational learning

») VANGUARD | Best
strategydynamics STRATEGY ANYLOGIC®

Additional Sponsors

ic GC @

Sponsor.of Snack Bars International Society
Sponsor of Snack Bars

of the System Sciences
V nd N3=

National Business Products

Lane

ne Sponsor of
Conference Note Pads
Sponsor of Partial Printing of PEGASUS
Conference Brochures | ead aun unenriONe
—a

SEAPORT
Sponsor of Discounted Meals

and Scholarship Guest Rooms
PROJECT PERFORMANCE

SS
INTERNATIONAL WILEY ae nae
&y InterScience®

DISCOVER SOMETHING GREAT

Many organizations and individuals contributed to this conference. We wholeheartedly thank our
sponsors and encourage you to thank their representatives during the conference. Please see contact
information for conference sponsors and exhibitors on the following pages.

Our Sincere Thanks To All Our Sponsors

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 27

Sponsors and Exhibitors

AIMS, lle. and
Confluent, llc.

3549 West Walnut Hill Lane Suite 2065

Irving Texas 75038 USA
Phone: + 1 972 871 8417
Fax: +1 972 692 7446
www.usmanaghani.com and
www.confluente.com

Amber Blocks Ltd.

145 East 48th Street Suite 30C
New York New York 10017
USA

Phone: + 1 212 593 3110

Fax: +1 212 593 0441

Atkins Nutritionals, Inc.
Melville New York 11747
USA

Phone: + 1 631 953 4000
Fax: +1 631 953 4001
www.atkins.com

BP
Worldwide
www.bp.com

Clif Bar Inc.

1610 Sth Street

Berkeley, California 94710

USA

Phone: + 1 800 CLIFBAR
and +1 510 558 7855

www.clifbar.com

CRA International, Inc.
200 Clarendon Street T-33
Boston Massachusetts 02116
USA

Phone: + 1 617 425 3000
Fax: +1 617 425 3132
www.crai.com

22 50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Decisio Consulting Inc
201 Linden Street 3202

Fort Collins Colorado 80524
USA

Phone: + 1 719 332 2591
www.decisio.com

e-integrate

Rue Edouard Olivier, 20
1170, Brussels

Belgium

Phone: + +32.2.380.96.58
Fax: ++32.2.380.96.58
Mail: info@e-integrate.com

Evans & Peck Pty Ltd

20/390 Eastern Valley Way
Roseville New South Wales 2069
Australia

Phone: + 612 9882 0527

Fax: +612 9417 8850
www.evanspeck.com

Forio Business Simulations
2320 Jones Street

San Francisco California 94133
USA

Phone: + 1 415 440 7500

Fax: +1 415 354 3457
www.forio.com

Global Strategy Dynamics Ltd.

Two Farthings, Aylesbury Road

Monks Risborough, Buckinghamshire HP27 0JS
UK

Phone: + 44 (0)1844 275 518

Fax: +44 (0)1844 275 507
www.strategydynamics.com

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Sponsors and Exhibitors continued

GoldSim Technology Group
22516 SE 64th Place Suite 110
Issaquah WA 98027

USA

Phone: + 1 425 295 6985

Fax: +1 425 642 8073
www.goldsim.com

Health Market Sciences
2700 Horizon Drive, Suite 200
King of Prussia PA 19406
USA

Phone: + 1 800.593.4467

Fax: +1 610.940.4003
www.healthmarketscience.com

isee systems

Wheelock Office Park

31 Old Etna Road, Suite 5N
Lebanon New Hampshire 03766
USA

Phone: + 1 603 448 4990

Fax: +1 603 448 4992
www.iseesystems.com

ISSS

International Society for the Systems
Sciences

47 Southfield Road

Pocklington, York YO42 2XE

UK

Phone: + 44 (0)1759 302718

Fax: +44 (0)1759 302718

www.isss.org

Jantz Morgan LLC

253 Pleasant Street

Arlington Massachusetts 02476
USA

Phone: + 1 781 643 6027

Fax: +1 703 200 6598
www.jantzmorgan.com

John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Atrium, Southern Gate
Chichester West Sussex PO19 8SQ
UK

Phone: + 44 (0)1243 779777

Fax: +44 (0)1243 775878
www.wiley.com

Kolbenschmidt Pierburg
Worldwide
www.kspg.com

Lane Press of Albany

11 Kairnes Street

Albany New York 12205
USA

Phone: + 1 518 438 7834
Fax: +1 518 438 3942
www.lanepressofalbany.com

Ma haceh Busi & Fi sal
Consultancies

8 Raouf St from Algazaer St

New Maadi Cairo

Egypt

Phone: + 202 705 7053

Fax: +202 705 7053
www.mohasboon.com

National Business Promotions, Inc.
19 Colvin Avenue

Albany New York 12206

USA

Phone: + 1 518 459 5270

1 800 666 2301

Fax: +1 518 489 3047
www.nbp-promotions.com

PA Consulting Group

One Memorial Drive

Cambridge MA 02142

USA

and additional worldwide locations
Phone: + 1 617 225 2700

Fax: +1 617 225 2631
www.paconsulting.com

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 23

's and Exhibitors

hik + q

Pearson Education New Zealand
in association with

Kambiz Maani & Bob Cavana
67 Apollo Drive

Rosedale North Shore City 0632
Private Bag 102 902 North Shore
North Shore City 0745

New Zealand

Phone: + 09 442 7400

Fax: +09 442 7406
www.pearsoned.co.nz

Pegasus Communications, Inc.
One Moody Street

Waltham Massachusetts 02453-5339
USA

Phone: + 1 781 398 9700

Fax: +1 781 894 7175
www.pegasuscom.com

Powersim Software AS
P.O. box 125

N-5871 Nyborg, Bergen
Norway
www.powersim.com

Powersim Solutions, Inc.
585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon Virginia 20170
USA

Phone: + 1 703 467 0910
Fax: +1 703 467 0912
www.powersimsolutions.com

Project Performance International
PO Box 2385

Ringwood North , Victoria 3134
Australia

Phone: + 1 888 772 5174

Fax: +1 888 772 5191

www.ppi-int.com

24 50! Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems
50 Apple Hill Drive

Tewksbury, Massachusetts

USA

Phone: + 1 978 858 5000
www.raytheon.com

Edward Roberts MIT and
Nancy Roberts Lesley University
USA

Sandia National Laboratories
Albuquerque New Mexico
USA

www.sandia.gov

Seaport Hotel

One Seaport Lane

Boston Massachusetts 02210
USA

Phone: + 877 SEAPORT
www.seaportboston.com

System Dynamics Group

MIT Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street

Cambridge Massachusetts 02142

USA

http://web.mit.edu/sdg/www

SoL

The Society for Organizational Learning
25 First St, Suite 414

Cambridge Massachusetts 02141-1802

USA

Phone: + 1 617 300 9500

Fax: +1 617 354 2093

www.solonline.org

Cindy and John Sterman
USA

July 29 — August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Sponsors and Exhibitors continued

Swiss Reinsurance Company

Worldwide
www.swissre.com

Vanguard Strategy
33 Soho Square
London W1D 3QU
UK

Phone: + 44 20 7478 3380
Fax: +44 20 7478 3399
www.vanguardstrategy.com

Ventana Systems, Inc.

60 Jacob Gates Road
Harvard Massachusetts 01451
USA

Phone: + 1 508 651 0432
Fax: +1 508 650 5422
www.vensim.com

Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI)
100 Institute Road

Worcester Massachusetts 01609-2280

USA

Phone: + 1.508.831.6789

Fax: +1.508.831.5881

www.online.wpi.edu

XJ Technologies Company Ltd.
Office 410, 49 Nepokorennykh Ave.
St. Petersburg 195220
Russia
Phone: + 7 812 441 3105

and +7 812 441 3106
Fax: +7 812 441 3107
www.xjtek.com

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 25

Award-winning

global consulting

PA Consulting Group works with clients from insight to
implementation — delivering unique industry insights and
end-to-end solutions. We bring new ideas that take our
clients beyond their current thinking, and we design and
implement innovative solutions to achieve lasting change
and impact. At PA, we see projects right through to the
finish line — and beyond.

From technology solutions to international development to our own portfolio

of venture companies, PA's expertise helps clients maximize the return on their
investments. As a leading management, systems and technology consulting firm,
PA builds strategies for the creation and capture of shareholder and customer
value and helps clients accelerate business growth through innovation and the
application of technology. Our industry sectors include:

* energy * government * manufacturing

+ finance + healthcare * telecoms

PA has won seven awards at the latest Management Consultancies Association
Best Management Practice Awards for excellence in client work, including

Overall Winner for the best consulting assignment of the year. This extends our
winning streak to seven years in a row, and reflects our pursuit of excellence, our
independence, and our focus on client value, making us the leading management
consulting firm operating in the UK, the US and around the world.

www.paconsulting.com

Strategy and market modeling
Forecasting and understanding markets and
business operations in complex and uncertain
environments, to inform strategy development
and pricing decisions.

Business and performance modeling
Modeling business processes and people flows
to alleviate bottlenecks, improve quality and
reduce cost, and to help manage performance
more strongly.

Option appraisal and

portfolio optimization

Evaluating project options and investment
opportunities to ensure value for money and/or
maximum return on investment, and to ensure
business objectives are achieved.

Consulting
Group

Complex project simulation

Analyzing and better managing the key causes of
project uncertainty — complexity and disruptions —
through simulation modeling of project dynamics
and the Rework Cycle.

Resource planning and scheduling
Delivering the effective use of people, equipment
and other limited resources, to minimize cost and
release latent capacity.

Contact us

For more information, please contact
Sharon Els at +1 617 225 2700

or e-mail at sharon.els@paconsulting.com.
One Memorial Drive

Cambridge, MA 02139

Tel: +1 617 225 2700

Fax: +1 617 225 2631
www.paconsulting.com

m Blocks

Working for drivers,
and for the environment

Every day Kolbenschmidt Pierburg helps people get where
they need to go through thoughtful engineering... while living
up to our responsibility to be good stewards of the earth.

Our powertrain technologies — pistons, bearings, pumps,
and emission control products — help make vehicles

more earth-friendly, while enhancing the overall driving
experience. In gasoline and diesel applications, alternate
fuels and hybrid programs, OEMs specify Kolbenschmidt
Pierburg to improve fuel economy, emissions, performance
and warranty costs.

Here in North America, our operations combine the strengths
of five specialized business units and 30 global locations.
All dedicated to balancing the needs of drivers and our
environment.

www.kspg.com

Kolbenschmidt Pierburg
salutes the
System Dynamics organization

50 years of
experience in thoughtful planning
for the future

——_

Sandia National Laboratories

Host of the 2009 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Sandia’s Z machine, the world’s most powerful X-ray source, is used for fusion energy
research and to test the effects of radiation on materials.

Sandia National Laboratories is one of America's premier research
and development laboratories. Our core purpose is to secure a
peaceful and free world through technology.

Since Sandia was established in Albuquerque, NM, in 1945 it has
grown into a broad national security laboratory encompassing a
variety of technologies and programs. Our work involves missions
in these key areas:

HH Nuclear Weapons and Nonproliferation
I Defense Systems and Assessment

i Energy and Resources

i Homeland Security

Sandia works for, and partners with, the Department of Energy, the
Department of Defense, and the Department of Homeland Security.
We also work closely with industry, universities, and other govern-
ment agencies to bring new technologies to the marketplace. The
Labs may negotiate with partners to sign cooperative RaD agree-
ments that permit the Labs to collaborate on mutually beneficial
research, Other options for pursuing shared interests include licens-
ing agreements, technical assistance, use of unique Sandia facilities,

} Fund |

technical personnel and d

Sandia has about 8,600 employees, and our workforce consists of
highly educated and skilled engineers, scientists, and technologists.
About 18 percent of our employees hold doctoral degrees, and about
30 percent hold master’s degrees.

System Dynamics at Sandia

Sandia has been active in system dynamics since 1975. Today Sandia
is highly vested in SD-based studies of critical infrastructure protec-
tion, energy economics, and water resources management. Efforts to
understand the dynamics of coupled infrastructures, examine alterna-
tive energy sources, and highlight short- versus long-term trade-offs
in strategy and decision making are currently funded at the level of
millions of dollars annually.

Modeling for Water & Energy Decision Support
System Dynamics modeling for water and energy decision support
has focused on the issue of sustainability. An international effort to
build a high-level model of water resources in China, and a local
initiative to model household water conservation in the Rio Grande
Basin of New Mexico, have spun off many other water resource
management studies, both domestically and abroad, The energy
models have been used to contrast alternative, renewable energy
sources against petroleum-based fuels.

A Global Energy Futures Model simulates key aspects of nuclear and
non-nuclear energy, nuclear materials storage and disposition, global
nuclear-materials management, and nuclear-proliferation risk, along
with oil, gas, coal, greenhouse gas emissions, and other measures

of environmental impact. The model has been used by government
officials to simulate future energy trends and has created interest

in bio-fuel and renewable fuel studies, as well as integrated water,
energy, and food modeling projects.

These multi disciplinary projects have been client based and stake-
holder-driven. The assumptions embedded in the models have been
scrutinized by a gamut of scientists and experts. A groundbreaking
effort is under way to integrate system dynamics, border gradients
models, and spatially explicit modeling environments, such as GIS.

Modeling for Critical Infrastructure Protection
Today's open and technologically complex society includes a wide
array of critical infrastructures. Many have historically been physi-
cally and logically separate systems that had little interdependence.
As a result of advances in information technology and the necessity
of improved efficiency, however, these infrastructures have become
increasingly automated and interlinked. These same advances have
Created new and possibly cascading vulnerabilities.

of i it inistratic contract DE-ACO4-94AL85000. SAND No, 2007-3254P.

States Department.


Sandia National Laboratories is home to the National Infrastructure
Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC), established to integrate
the national laboratories’ expertise in modeling and simulating com-
plex systems. System dynamics is an important modeling capability
used to quantify and evaluate the effects of infrastructures and their
interdependencies on supply and demand under different conditions

Given a specific threat or vulnerability scenario, the model-based
analyses estimate the potential magnitude, location, and timing of
disruptions. Further, the analyses establish propagations through-
out infrastructures and national regions, examine limiting factors,
capacities, and redundancies and quantify overall consequences. The
models incorporate the feedbacks created by the interdependencies
and their net effects on supply and demand balances. They also aim
to identify unintended consequences of policy

responses.

Critical infrastructure protection studies using
system dynamics modeling include, among
others:

fie

® Port security and long-term economic viability

@ Loss of multiple telecommunication assets

@ Social and economic effects of animal and
plant diseases

® Physical disruptions due to natural disasters

Sandia National Laboratories is
home to the National Infrastructure
Simulation and Analysis Center

In parneship with other National Laboratories, universities, and
businesses in the Southwest region of the US, we are excited to host
the 2009 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
in Albuquerque, NM. This pivotal event will help consolidate and
enhance the use of system dynamics at the national laboratories and

encourage its use in national policy making.

Information
For more about Sandia,

visit us at www.sandia.gov.

An overview booklet is
available by contacting the
Public Relations and Communi-
cations Center(505) 844-4902.

@ Hz.

Sandia
National
Laboratories


from

Ventana Systems, Inc.

Welcome to the 50” A nniversary Conference of the System Dynamics Society. It
is an honor to be a part of this wonderful celebration.

Ventana has been a proud sponsor of the System Dynamics Society since 1988.
We first exhibited at the 1990 Boston Conference held at Pine Manor College and
have been a sponsor of the conference since that opportunity became available. We
continue to strive to make it easier to study and practice system dynamics to the
highest possible standards. From Vensim PLE, which is designed for those
learning system dynamics to Vensim DSS which supports the needs of the masters
in the field Ventana provides the software you need to do things right.

Vensim is available in the following configurations:

Vensim PLE

Vensim PLE (for Personal Learning Edition) is optimized for teaching and learning system
dynamics. With a simplified user interface and only a small number of options it is the ideal
product for classroom use. From K-12 to introductory graduate level courses Vensim PLE is
what we recommend. Though it has a simple interface, Vensim PLE gives you the power you
need to build and analyze models. With no restrictions on model size or complexity Vensim
PLE is completely sufficient for most student models. Vensim PLE is free for educational use
and personal learning and Ventana is committed to keeping it that way.

VENTANA

systems, inc

Vensim PLE Plus

Vensim PLE Plus shares the same simplified interface as Vensim PLE. In addition to what is in
PLE, PLE Plus adds the ability to hide and expose structural elements, connect to spreadsheets,
run games and perform sensitivity simulations. It is ideal for creating models that can be
distributed with the V ensim Model Reader and for doing a wide variety of analysis of relatively
simple models.

Vensim Professional

In addition to a more flexible user interface V ensim Professional supports subscripts, which
means that you can develop models for more complicated situations effectively and efficiently.
It also has optimization capabilities that allow for the calibration of models to data and the
selection of model parameters to optimize metrics of performance. It has the power you need to
develop complete professional models to attack complex problems.

Vensim DSS

Vensim DSS (which stands for Decision Support System) is the top-of-the-line V ensim product.
It is extensible, allowing you to add in your own function, supports compiled simulation for
increased speed, integrates with databases using ODBC and provides the tools you need to write
customized interfaces to your model. This combination of speed, extensibility and presentation
options make Vensim DSS the tool of choice for the dedicated professional.

Vensim Model Reader

The Vensim Model Reader is free software that allows you to share your models and model
based applications with others. By publishing a model or application you can provide users with
a single file that contains everything they need to run your model and see the results. It supports
models that use subscripts and spreadsheet connectivity which means that you can provide those
who do not have Vensim with a run-only version of almost any model you develop.

In addition to the Vensim software, Ventana provides a full range of consulting
services. Please contact us for more information.

Ventana Systems, Inc. Phone 508 651 0432
60 J acob Gates Road Fax 508 650 5422
Harvard MA 01451 vensim@ vensim.com
USA http://www.vensim.com

Experience Vensim yourself
Pick up a CD from our table in the Exhibition Area

Proud Host of the 25th International
Conference of the System Dynamics Society

MIT

®$ Forio
@ Business Simulations

Stop by our booth for a demonstration of Forio Broadcast.

Financials | Supply

Manufacturer 2 (Product)

Regional Status for 2008

Unit Share

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mane RES :

lenda

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~sucralose [eee

Google od

Offerings Comparizon for

"Simulations anywhere

x =

Forio Broadcast provides:

eweb
® free web simulation hosting
® HTML and Flash interface tools for simulation graphs and inputs

www.forio.com

Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Online Master of Science Degree in System Dynamics
Certificate Program and Single Course Options Also Available
Help your organization think strategically

Assist decision makers in determining policy

Enable managers to reach a consensus

Program Overview

ONLY ON-LINE graduate Master’s Degree program | =! eal
available in the world, comprised of 30 credits Ds

‘Take_individual_courses or pursue a 5 course graduate
certificate

3 semesters per year ranging 10 to 14 weeks

Coutse List Distinguished Faculty
System Dynamics Foundations Modeling James Doyle, Ph.D. — Faculty, WPI
& Experimental Analysis System Bob Eberlein, Ph.D. — Product Development, Ventana Systems
Dynamics for Insight Andrew Ford, Ph.D. — Faculty, Washington State University
Model Analysis & Evaluation James Hines, Ph.D. — Consultant; Faculty, MIT & Brown
Real World System Dynamics Strategy James Lyneis, Ph.D. — Consultant; Faculty, WPI
Dynamics Michael Radzicki, Ph.D. — Faculty, WPI; Past President, SDS
Environmental Dynamics Khalid Saced, Ph.D. — Faculty, WPI; Past President, SDS
Project Dynamics Kim Warren, Ph.D. — Principal, Global Strategy Dynamics, Ltd;

Macroeconomic Dynamics

Psychological Foundations of SD Models

Access WPI Online: Access courses through the Internet from any location in the world. On-
line any time of day even within different time zones. Electronic assignment submission tools,
discussion board for on-line class interaction, group collaboration and file sharing,

WPI Distance Learning Office — online@wpi.edu — www.online.wpi.edu — 508-831-6789
Worcester, Massachusetts 01609, USA

Sponsors of Systems Thinking
and System Dynamics in Education
K-12 and Business

Amber Blocks Ltd.
535 Park Avenue, Suite 4A
New York, NY 10021
Tel (212) 593 3110

Allen L. and Jane K. Boorstein

Student Paper Prize, given annually for the best student paper

presented at the International System Dynamics Conference.
Thanks to all who helped establish the fund to permanently endow
this valuable award.

I: HAS BEEN OUR PLEASURE to help fund the Dana Meadows

Best wishes to all the students, who are the future of system dynamics.

AIMS

Advanced Integrated Management Strategies, LLC.
and

Confluent, 1c.

Proud sponsors of the Boston 2007 Conference
of the System Dynamics Society

and
With grateful respects for
Susan and Jay W. Forrester

Usman A. Ghani
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The International Society for the Systems Sciences
51* Annual Meeting, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan
August 5-10, 2007

The International Society for the Systems Sciences (ISSS) is entering its

second half-century of interdisciplinary collaboration and synthesis of systems

sciences. Based on fifty years of tremendous interdisciplinary research from

the scientific study of complex systems to interactive approaches in

management and community development, the next conference in Tokyo,

Japan, the 51st annual meeting, will take the theme “Integrated Systems Sciences: Systems Thinking,
Modeling and Practice”. The conference will attempt to promote systems sciences as an approach to
complexity in a broad sense, identified in organizations, communities and societies, and their
environments, in such a holistic and integrated way that we draw on all of systems sciences from
systems thinking and systems modeling to systems practice.

Planning is also underway for the 52" meeting to be held at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI,
13-18 July 2008. The theme of this conference will be: “Systems that make a difference” and ideas for
plenaries, paper sessions, workshops or other discussions are welcome at this time.

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http://www.isss.org/conferences/tokyo2007/ or contact the ISSS office at isssoffice@ dsl.pipex.com


Celebrating 50 Years

of System Dynamics

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THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS CAREER LINK

What is it? The SD Career Link, in its eighth year of operation, is hosted by the System
Dynamics Society at the University at Albany. It includes on-line information and links to
organizations that employ candidates with system dynamics and systems thinking backgrounds.
The SD Career Link provides a valuable forum for the exchange of information about
organizations, positions and people in the field of system dynamics. Please visit the SD Career
Link bulletin board at the conference.

Career Link Allows Companies and Universities to Describe General Career
Information as Well as Specific Job Opportunities. The SD Career Link web page of the
Society web site has two subsections: (1) company/university profiles, and (2) specific job
listings. In the profiles section, company and university employers provide general yet
descriptive information about how system dynamics fits into their organization, typical jobs,
career paths, and other aspects of employment. This subsection allows employers to provide
information about system dynamics opportunities within their organizations to supplement the
more general information contained on their corporate or academic websites. Such career
information is valuable to current as well as future system dynamics students, academics, and
practitioners, and we urge companies and universities to describe the use of system dynamics
expertise in their organization even if they do not have job openings at the present time. In the
job listings section of the bulletin board, employers advertise their current openings. These are
for any level of required expertise located in any geographical region.

How to participate? Please refer to the System Dynamics Society website at
www.systemdynamics.org or send an email message to the Society office at
<system.dynamics@albany.edu>. All information about access to and use of the site will remain
confidential. We look forward to your participation.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 51

The Diagram Slam

52

A System Dynamics Conceptualization Contest

This is a contest for teams of people (1-5) to create the most interesting, funny,
innovative, or beautiful causal-loop and/or stock-flow diagram on a topic that
appeared in the news.

Qualifying Round Submissions

Diagrams must be based on material from an article in a newspaper or magazine
(any country, any language) that was printed after July 23, 2007. The diagram may
include factors not addressed in the article.

The diagram must fit completely on an 8.5 x 11 piece of paper or paper napkin.
Multiple colors may be used. The diagram can include notes, behavior-over-time
graphs, pictures, anything you choose. Please attach the article from the paper that
prompted the diagram. Do not write names of contestants on the submission.
Contestants will be given a number to identify the diagram.

An arbitrary group of judges will pick the top five diagrams for the finals.

Final Round

Five finalist teams will be invited to compete for the championship via a live
presentation after the Beer Game. Each team can have as many presenters as they
like. They will have:

¢ No more than four minutes.

e An overhead projector and projection screen.
e Five blank transparency sheets.

e A packet of multi-color pens.

e Anadoring crowd.

Schedule

e Diagrams must be submitted by Spm on Tuesday, July 31.

e Five finalists will be announced in the August 1, Wednesday morning plenary
session. They will receive their blank transparencies and pens soon after.

e The five finalists will compete for the championship on Wednesday evening,
August | immediately following the Beer Game, at around 9pm.

50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 ~ August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

System
Dynamics
Society

Conference Contacts

Conference Co-Chairs:
Emmanuel Adamides
University of Patras, Greece
Nicholas Georgantzas
Fordham University Business
Schools, New York, USA.
Local Co-host Institutions:
University of Patras

Panteion University

The Hellenic Chapter of SDS
Program Chair:

Brian C. Dangerfield
University of Salford, UK
Local Organizing Chairs:
George-Michael Klimis
Panteion University

George Papaioannou

Public Power Corporation of Greece

Local Organizing Team:
Patroklos Georgiadis
Aristoteles University of
Thessaloniki

George Papachristos
University of Patras
Nikolaos Pomonis
University of Patras
Yeoryios Stamboulis
University of Patras
Workshop Chair:

Jack B. Homer

Homer Consulting

New Jersey, USA
Conference Manager:
Roberta L. Spencer
System Dynamics Society
New York, USA
system.dynamics@albany.edu
Local Travel Agent:
Christina Shiapanis
MIBS Travel Organisation
cshiapani@mibs.gr
www.mibs.gr

cal mE
For announcements and details visit our website: http://www.systemdynamics.org

Announcing the
Twenty-sixth International
System Dynamics Conference
Athens, Greece
July 20 - 24, 2008

The venue for the 2008
conference of the System
Dynamics Society will be
the Athenaeum
Intercontinental Hotel in
Athens, Greece. Athens is
an historic, cosmopolitan
and cultured city with many
nearby attractions. Visiting
historic sites and museums,
attending cultural events,
sightseeing and shopping
are very convenient thanks to Athens’s modern transportation
infrastructure.

The Athenaeum Intercontinental Hotel is situated in Athens’s
main business district and features elegant guest rooms. It is
just a short distance from Syntagma Square, the Plaka
district, the Acropolis and other historic sites. Many
restaurants, shops and museums are very close. The hotel is a
short ride from Eleftherios Venizelos Airport.

Of most importance to the conference attendees, the
Athenaeum Intercontinental Hotel conference facilities are
excellent! This will provide a wonderful venue for all
programs and sessions. For detailed information about the
Athenaeum Intercontinental Hotel, visit

http://www. intercontinental.com

eee eee

F-

at he ex ¥ : Sy

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 53

Reading Supporting Material

Supporting Material files can be found by clicking on the appropriate link in the Paper Index, found on
the conference website. Papers are listed alphabetically by the last name of the primary author.

> Viewing/Opening/Reading the Supporting Material:

Some of these files are plain text files or presentations which are in widely accessible formats such as
.doc, .ppt, .pdf, etc., but others are model files, which need to be viewed using the appropriate system
dynamics modeling software. Below, find information on how to access freeware/demo/trial versions
from several system dynamics software manufacturers. Follow the links within the descriptions below to
the software needed to view the files.

In following chart, find the three-letter extension of the file name, then the software you need to view the
file.

File Name E i Software Needed
.itm, .stm iThink, STELLA*
-sip Powersim Studio
sim, Powersim
-vmf, .vpa, .vpm, .mdl Vensim

*ithink and STELLA can each be used to open both .itm and .stm files.

STELLA/iThink by isee systems:
http://www. iseesystems.com/player

This link will navigate you to the FREE isee Player. The isee Player lets you view, run, print and share
both STELLA and iThink models. Available in both Windows and Macintosh versions, the isee Player
allows exploration of all model layers - map, model, equation, and interface, and never "times out."

Powersim Studio by Powersim Solutions:
http://www.powersimsolutions.com/SDConference2007/sdconference.asp

Powersim Studio 7 Express is a free and fully-functional 60-day trial version of Powersim Studio 7
Enterprise edition, our SAP-certified platform for building, analyzing and sharing business simulations in
a corporate environment. Studio 7 contains an array of new and exciting features, including calendar-
independent simulations, new functions for prioritization and resource allocation, etc., improved dataset
and SAP BI connectivity, scatter graphs, updated wizards and tutorials and more. Note that a Studio 7
installation will automatically replace any previous version of Studio.

Vensim by Ventana Systems:
http://www.vensim.com/reader.html

The Vensim Model Reader can be used to open Vensim models which are files with extension .vmf, .vpm.
or .vpa. This is free software which will allow you to view and simulate models changing the assumptions
but not model structure. Many models (.vmf, .vpa, .vpm, and .mdl) can also be opened using Vensim PLE
which is free for educational use. Both PLE and the Reader are available from:
http://www.vensim.com/freedownload.html

54 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 ~ August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions

Emmanuel D. Adamides
adamides@ mech.upatras.gr
University of Patras

PO Box 5064

26004 Patras

Greece

Nikolaos Pomonis

npomo@ yahoo.gr

University of Patras

Dept of Mechanical & Aeronautical Eng
GR-26500 Patras

Greece

George Papachristos

men8gp@ hotmail.com

University of Patras

IM & IS Laboratory

Dept of Mech & Aeronautical Eng
26500 Rio Patra

Greece

Mohammad Akbarpour
mohamwad@ yahoo.com

Sharif University of Technology

10 4th Andishe Alley Andishe St 2nd Fl
Shahid Beheshti Ave

Tehran Iran

Arash Farsi

arashfarsi@ yahoo.com

Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Ave

11365 Tehran

Tran

Path dependence and transients in random and
adaptive walks on strategy fitness landscapes

Over the last decade complexity theory in general, and Kaufmann’s NK
fitness landscape model in particular, have been very popular means of
an PP hes to strategic

management. However, either i in pure conceptual, or in more formal forms,
these models assume rather naive, “memoryless” and unrestricted by past
choice strategy processes (organisational structure and decision making), i.e.
they ignore the internal dynamics of the strategy-formulation system. In this
paper, we demonstrate how system dynamics modelling can enrich the NK.
fitness landscape model so that these s are special
with respect to the way the fitness landscape is searched/w: alked. The
resulting modelling framework becomes particularly useful for understanding
strategic behaviours and assessing strategic flexibility under the assumption
of resource-based competition as it allows the explicit modelling of the

ics of assets and the ity and substitution
effects among strategic decisions and actions towards resource and capability
development for achieving higher fitness. We demonstrate our approach in
the modelling of operations strategy as an emergent process of distributed
decision making for capabilities development.

An Investigation into the Diffusion Process of a
Social Norm by a System Dynamics Approach

The way in which a behavior becomes normal in a society and how we adopt
it as a norm are interesting processes to study. Many sociologists believe that
these processes depend mainly on the bility of a behavior (

to the culture of the society), the impact of the innovator of that behavior on
the society, and the tendency of the people in the society to conform to each
other. A system dynamics approach was used in this study and a model was
developed to simulate these processes - especially for a society under the
impact of a traditional culture like Iran. The results were obtained by running
the model for different values of its parameters (corresponding to different
social situations). Comparison between these results and the reality proved
that our model simulates the situations with reasonable accuracy. This shows
that system dynamics approach can have vast applications in social sciences.
Also, the results of the simulations would be of great help to any government,
organization, etc. that intends to diffuse a norm among the people of its
country.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 55

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Bahadir Akcam
bahadirakcam@ gmail.com
University at Albany

One Marvin Avenue Apt 1-A
Troy NY 12180 USA

Deborah Lines Andersen
dla@ albany.edu

University at Albany

113 Draper Hall

135 Western Avenue

Albany NY 12222 USA

David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
315A Milne Hall

135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA

Anthony M. Cresswell

tcresswell@ ctg.albany.edu

University at Albany

Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road Suite 301

Albany NY 12205 USA

Henk A. Akkermans

ha@ uvt-nl

Tilburg University

Dept Information Systems & Management
PO Box 90153

5000 LE Tilburg The Netherlands

Willem van Oppen
wvoppen@ xs4all nl
Royal KPN Telecom
PO Box 30000

2500 GA The Hague
The Netherlands

Henk A. Akkermans

ha@ uvtaal

Tilburg University

Dept Information Systems & Management
PO Box 90153

5000 LE Tilburg The Netherlands

56 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Secondary Data Analysis in System Dynamics
Modeling

The importance of qualitative data is appreciated in the System Dynamics
field since its early days. In his description of information content, Forrester
(1980) categorized information into three main databases; Mental, written
and numerical. Most of the information available to modeler is qualitative in
nature. Forrester (1991) discusses that despite qualitative information’s
importance, management and social scientists have long been neglected this
“far richer and more informative body of information that exist in the
knowledge and experience of those in the active, working world.” Luna-
Reyes and Andersen (2003) indicate the lack of well defined protocols to
incorporate qualitative information during the modeling process. In their
paper, they discuss the suitability of several qualitative data collection
methods in the different stages of the modeling process. In their conclusion,
they indicate the need for the development and testing formal protocols
involving qualitative social research techniques to support the modeling
process. This paper is indented to respond such need by developing and
testing a formal protocol to support the test of a generic dynamic theory by
using quali data analysis i These techniques will be used to
do secondary data analysis of previously done interviews by other
researchers.

From Mopping the Floor to Fixing the Plumbing:
How KPN Telecom Uses SD to Improve Ramp-ups
In its Service Supply Network

Paper describes an ongoing applied research project at KPN Telecom, the
leading mobile and fixed slephony operator in the Netherlands. The project
describes is aimed at ive sales & operations planning
business process at KPN that will support the ramp-up of new IP-based
service offerings through KPN’s service supply network. Paper discusses root
causes for why coordinating capacity and sales ramp-ups in the various
stages of the chain is far more difficult in service than in manufacturing.
Introduces workload as a key organising concept in collaborative supply
chain coordination during ramp- Ups. Describes project findings so far, which
are still limited to p model through group
del-build project results will be incorporated in

orkshops.
the paper as these become available.

Beyond Rounding Up the Usual Suspects: Towards
Effective Quality Management Policies for
Production Ramp-ups in Supply Chains

This study investigates the issue of managing quality during production
ramp-ups in high-tech supply chains. It combines an in-depth case study of

one particular high-tech supply chain setting with insights from the recently-
emerging literature on behavioral operations and synthesizes these two into a

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Monica A. Altamirano
m.a.altamirano@ student.tbm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Energy and Industry

PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

Juha Aijo
juha.aijo@ ramboll.fi
Ramboll Finland Ltd
PO Box 3

FI-02241 Espoo
Finland

Pertti Virtala

pertti.virtala@ destia.fi

Destia Consulting
Opastinsilta 12 B PO Box 152
00521 Helsinki

Finland

Lianjun An

alianjun@ us.ibm.com

IBM

TJ Watson Research Center

1101 Kitchawan Rd Rte 134
Yorktown Heights NY 10598 USA

Young M. Lee

ymlee@ us.ibm.com

IBM

TJ Watson Research Center

Route 134 PO Box 218

Yorktown Heights NY 10598 USA.

system dynamics simulation model. Model analysis suggests that isolated and
intuitively appealing quality management policies are likely to lead to
suboptimal or even detrimental results. Of crucial importance is finding the
balance between ramping up production rates sufficiently fast to capture
short-lived market demand and avoiding to increasing production starts so
high that workload levels in the supply chain move beyond the tipping point.
This means that when workloads become too high, the entire supply chain
can get bogged down in a vicious cycle of high workloads leading to low
quality levels, which lead to high rework levels and hence to even higher
workloads. Especially promising policies to be used in combination are,
firstly, moderate production ramp-up rates that turn out to generate more
timely output than overly aggressive production ramp-ups. Secondly, policies
that leverage the expertise that can be gained from analyzing defective units
that cannot be repaired easily downstream, as these may yield knowledge
regarding hidden quality issues upstream.

A Qualitative Analysis of Periodic Maintenance of
Roads

Many transportation agencies are experimenting with innovative contractual
arrangements for the procurement of construction, maintenance and operation
of roads. They are changing from traditional contracts that prescribe the kind
of work that need to be done in a specific section of the network, to more
flexible contracts, increasing the contractors freedom to its maximum level,
where the contractor itself decide which section, when and what kind of work
he will perform, with the only condition of keeping a certain level of
performance for a whole road network. Advanced computer models have
been developed that estimate what would be the resulting road condition for
given and actions. Nevertheless it remains
uncertain if contractors are given the freedom: What trade-offs would they
make? Will road quality decrease? Will road agencies be able to monitor or
control contractors? Before all these choices and freedom are transferred to
the private sector, it is urgent to develop a clear view of the most important
trade-offs that are now already made by the public authority. In order to
contribute to the building of this understanding this paper explores the issue
of road condition and some of the most the relevant and conflicting aspects of
it.

Modeling Dynamics of Workforce Absenteeism and
Effectiveness of Mitigation Actions During
Pandemics

A pandemic is likely to occur in the near future, and it could cause significant
disruptions in society creating deaths, despair, fear, and monetary cost,
among other losses. Firms would also be negatively affected by a pandemic
through loss of revenue, profit, employees, and even through a reduction in
the value of the business itself. Especially for service-intensive businesses,
employee absenteeism is a key factor that impacts firms when a pandemic
occurs, hampering various business operations. In this paper, we describe a
system dynamics model that describes dynamics of workforce absenteeism
resulting from a pandemic, and also effecti of i

actions.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 57

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
315A Milne Hall

135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA

John D. W. Morecroft
jmorecroft@ london.edu
London Business School
Regent's Park

London NW1 4SA UK

Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany

Albany NY 12222 USA

David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
315A Milne Hall

135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA

George P. Richardson

gpr@ albany.edu

University at Albany

Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 101 Rockefeller College

Albany NY 12222 USA

Fran Ackermann

fran@ mansci.strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Dept of Management Science
40 George Street

Glasgow G1 1QE UK

Colin Eden

colin@ gsb.strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Graduate School of Business
199 Cathedral Street
Glasgow G4 0QU UK

Edward G. Anderson
edward.anderson@ mecombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas

McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Station B6500

Austin TX 78712 USA

58 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

How the System Dynamics Society Came to Be: A
Collective Memoir

In this paper several of the early workers in the field of system dynamics tell
both a consensus story of how the System Dynamics Society came into being
over 25 years ago and some of the early history of the Society itself. Several
slightly different versions of this story have been told over the past several
years and we thought it would be fun to involve a broader group in this kind
of modified oral history project. The paper is based on a series of separate
recollections that have been posted in full on the web at

http:/ .org/history/oral_history.htm

Keywords: System Dynamics Society, history, founding, volunteering,
Dynamica, constitution, early conferences.

Two Group Model Building Scripts that Integrate
Systems Thinking into Strategy Workshops
Facilitated with Group Explore

Vennix (1996), And et al (1997), Ri and And (1995), and
Andersen and Richardson (1997) have called for a greater sharing of
knowledge and experience in group model building (GMB) projects to
disseminate innovative practices and to increase the effectiveness of products
being delivered to our clients. This poster responds to that call by describing
two scripts based on system dynamics group model-building practices that
have been used in strategy workshops using Group Explorer. Eden and
Ackermann (1998) have developed a workshop-based approach for the rapid
development of strategic options working directly with client teams. In its
most recent manifestation, this approach uses the Group Explorer software to
facilitate rapid mapping, modeling, and analysis of issues, goals, and
distinctive competencies into well-integrated business plans, livelihood
schemes, and statements of strategic intent (Ackermann and Eden, 2005)
Recently, Howick et al (2006) demonstrated how scenarios maps developed
in this tradition of strategic analysis and modeling could be usefully
integrated with system dynamics models to improve overall impact and value
being delivered to client groups. Andersen et al (2006) have presented a
curriculum for co-teaching Eden and Ackermann’s (1998) approach to
strategy linked to Bryson’s (2004) approach to leadership and strategy
development as well as key elements of system dynamics and systems
thinking.

Accumulations of Legitimacy: Exploring
Insurgency and Counter-Insurgency Dynamics

We explore the s of regii HanSIAe T ies by
elements of traditional insurgency studies (e.g., Beckett 2001; O’Neill 2005)

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Laura J. Black

Ijblack@ alum.mitedu

Montana State University

PO Box 3662

Bozeman MT 59772-3662 USA

Ewandro Araujo
ewandro.araujo@ cgi.com
University of Quebec at Montreal
246 Av Tuilpe

Dorval QC H9S 3P3 Canada

Luc Cassivi
cassivi.luc@ uqam.ca
University of Quebec at Montreal

in light of Bourdieu’s (1990) theory of practice. In particular, we examine the
insurgent and counterinsurgent activities as a contest for creating
of legiti through which i bent state or

and insurgent organizations that seek to become state organizations—shape
the very categories of thought that people use to recognize and interpret
“state” organizations and their activities. We use system dynamics causal-
loop and stock-flow mapping to conceptualize the accumulations of social
capital and the activities that generate and deteriorate these accumulations
according to the cause-and-effect relations asserted by political-science and
military-history studies of insurgency and counterinsurgency. We lay out an
agenda for formalizing and simulating the conceptualized structures to check
for internal consistency with the historical dynamics as well as for

i with, or of, organizati studies of I
Through this research, we offer to integrate historical insights with insights
from organization theory. We hope to contribute to understanding of points
of leverage in diffusing and addressing insurgent and counterinsurgent
activities. We also hope to inform and extend understanding of the
organizati i ucture construct of legitimacy and how it is created and
undermined by examining these critical contests for leadership and
governance.

Improving the Software Development Process: A
Dynamic Model Using the Capacity Maturity
Model
Regardless of their size, software firms search for better methods to improve

the delivery of their projects. The SEI Capability Maturity Model (CMM) is
one available framework employed to assist in improving this process. The

Dept of and T 2
315 Ste Catherine East
Montreal Quebec H2X 3X2 Canada

Martin Cloutier
cloutier.martin@ ugam.ca
University of Quebec at Montreal

of identifying the benefits associated with implementation of CMM
Level 2 practices for the smaller software development firm is the main focus
of this research. The objective is to evaluate the impact of each key process
area of CMM 2 on productivity, product quality and ability to meet deadlines.
A simulation model is designed to help in software

and management teams in SMEs, understand the impact of alternative

Dept and T
315 Ste-Catherine East
Montreal QC H2X 3X2 Canada

Elie Elia

elia.elie@ ugam.ca

University of Quebec at Montreal
Dept of Management and Technology
315 Ste Catherine East

Montreal Quebec H2X 3X2 Canada

Holger Arndt

holger@ arndt-sowi.de

Padagogische Hochschule Karlsruhe
Bismarckstrasse 10

76133 Karlsruhe

Germany

policies and practices according to CMMD. The results indicate
that the CMM’s software quality assurance process area has a sizeable impact
on productivity and that all CMM process areas impact scheduling activities.
The process areas iated with project (software project
planning and software project tracking) have very little impact on product
quality as opposed to the other process areas with impacts more substantial
on this performance measure. The analysis of scenarios indicates that the
adoption of CMM2 practices based on requirements management yields more
positive results than policies based on project management.

Using System Dynamics-based Learning
Environments to Enhance System Thinking

System dynamics is a suitable method in education for problem-oriented
learning and for improving overall system thinking skills. It is proposed that
learning envi: sisting of system d) ics models and

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 59

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Steven P. Arquitt
sarquitt@ uq.edu.au
University of Queensland
Centre for Marine Studies
St Lucia QLD 4072
Australia

Mohamed Askar
maskar@ aucegyptedu

American University in Cairo
11 Youssef El Gindi Street
Bab El Louk 12511 Cairo
Egypt

Ahmed Farghaly Marzouk
ahmed.farghaly@ gmail.com
American University in Cairo
52 Emam Abu Hanifa Street 7th District
5 Omar Elhoty Zahraa

Egypt

Maha Resk

maharesk@ gmail.com
American University in Cairo
25 Tanta Street

Agouza

Egypt

Canan Atilgan

canan@ sabanciuniv.edu

Sabanci University

Engineering and Natural Sciences
Tuzla 34956 Istanbul Turkey

Giiven Demirel

guven.demirel@ boun.edu.tr

Bogazici University

Industrial Engineering Dept SESDYN Lab
34342 Bebek Istanbul Turkey

Ali Rana Atilgan

atilgan@ sabanciuniv.edu

Sabanci University

School of Engineering & Nat Sciences
34956 Istanbul Turkey

60 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

additional didactical material have positive learning effects. This is
exemplified by the illustration and validation of a learning sequence
concerning market processes.

The dynamics of nutrient reduction trading: a
simulation-based search for effective poicy design

This paper describes a system dynamics model developed to facilitate design
of nutrient reduction trading (NRT) programs. NRT is a form of cap-and-
trade policy that has been strongly promoted in recent years to address
se source nutrient pollution. Despite its wide appeal and the enthusiasm
of its proponents, very few trades have occurred to date. We propose that

i to learning d in real-world pilot studies have
contributed to lack of consensus in design and implementation of NRT. The
model we offer is intended as a demonstration of how the design process in
this instance can benefit from system dynamics modeling.

Modeling the Dynamics of the Egyptian Stock
Market

The Egyptian stock market has been experiencing a set of fluctuations over
the past two years. This was caused by several factors that include the
behavior of the Egyptian Economy, as well as the performance of the other
Middle Eastern stock markets. In this paper we use System Dynamics as a
tool for mapping the performance of the CASE 30, Egyptian Stock market
index, to identify the various interacting feedback loops that triggered such
performance. These loops are then incorporated in a system dynamics model
that is used to understand the causes of such performance as well as
developing several scenarios for managing the various factors affecting the
Egyptian stock market.

Landscape Dynamics of El Farol attendees

Paradigm of the El Farol bar for modeling bounded rationality is undertaken.
The memory horizon available to the agents and the selection criteria they
utilize for the prediction algorithm are the two essential variables for agent
strategies. The latter is enriched by including various rewarding schemes
during decision making. Playing with the essential variables, one can
maneuver the overall outcome between the comfort level and the
endogenously identified limiting state. The distribution of algorithm clusters
varies considerably for short memory. This affects the long-term aggregated
ics of A sition occurs in the distribution at
the critical memory where the correlations of the attendance deviations take
longer time to decay. A larger part of the crowd becomes more comfortable
while the rest of the bar-goers still feel congestion for long memories.
Introd direct local i ions within the by forming different

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Ahmad Taher Azar
ahmad_t_azar@ yahoo.com

Higher Technological Institute
Ahmad Orabi Square Azar Building
Menoufeyia Menouf Egypt

Khaled Wahba

khaled. wahba@ riti.org

Cairo University

Regional IT Institute

11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211 Egypt

Abdalla S.A. Mohamed
profabdo@ gmail.com
Cairo University

Bent Erik Bakken
beerikba@ online.no

Norwegian Defence Academy
Resource Management Division
FSTS

Akershus Oslo Mil Oslo 1
Norway

Yaman Barlas

ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr

Bogazigi University

Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul

Turkey

Hakan Yasarcan

yasarcanh@ yahoo.com

Australian Graduate School of Mgt
University of New South Wales
Sydney NSW 2052

Australia

types of networks, we create extremes in the attendance distributions.
Delayed feeding of the data to the agents or their inclination of to absorb
failure by insisting on unsuccessful algorithms introduces significant
correlations, hence predi ry of We addi explore the
extent of agents’ p achieved by modul. threshold in
accordance with the correlations in the data.

System Dynamics Highlights the Effect of
Maintenance on Hemodialysis Performance

there are conflicting reports regarding the relationship between dose of
dialysis or patient outcome, and machine maintenance. In this article, we will
discuss the impact of hemodialysis machine maintenance on dialysis
adequacy Kt/V and session performance by building a system dynamics
model to evaluate the effect of machine maintenance on session performance.

Developing and fine-tuning dynamic intuition.
Experimental evidence.

Considerable evidence shows that repeated trials and more elaborate analytic
training help little to mitigate problematic subject performance in dynamic
decision making. The paper uses a cognitive processing theory to account for
poor learning. Consistent with recent reviews of intuition in decision making,
the theory suggests that there are two classes of cognitive processing called
high and low roads to learning respectively. The theory calls for massive
decision training instead of analytic training for short and medium length
training programs. An experiment with 25 professionals randomly assigned
to high and low road training programs cannot disconfirm the theory.

A Comprehensive Model of Goal Dynamics in
Organizations: Setting, Evaluation and Revision

Goals play significant role in decision making. Most organizations can be
assumed to set and then pursue certain goals either stated explicitly or
assumed implicitly. In realistic models, the goal is not a constant but a
variable: it can erode due to persistent failure or it can evolve further as a
result of confidence caused by success With respect to many different types
of goal dynamics, there exist some models of limited and linear goal erosion
dynamics in the literature. We extend the existing models to obtain a

ive model of goal d , by i i capacity
limits on performance improvement rate, performance decay when there is no
effort, time ints and ion and frustration effects. The

Pp s

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 61

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Yaman Barlas

ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr

Bogazigi University

Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul

Turkey

Yaman Barlas

ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr

Bogazigi University

Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul

Turkey

Birnur Ozbas

birnur@ ozbas.net

Bogazici University

Industrial Engineering Department
Bebek 34342 Istanbul

Turkey

Onur Ozgiin

onur.ozgun@ boun.edu.tr

Bogazici University

Industrial Engineering Department
Bebek 34342 Istanbul

Turkey

62 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

model constitutes a general theory of goal dynamics in organizations. Our
model also s some to avoid the i goal and
performance erosion in various unfavorable, risky goal seeking
environments.

Structure and Behavior Testing Software
Demonstration: SiS and BTS II*

System dynamics validity consists of two very different types: structural and
behavioral. A unique property of system dynamics method is that structure
validity must precede behavior validity; the latter has no value without the
former. We thus present structural tests and behavior pattern tests in this
order and separately. Structure tests are further classified into direct and
indirect structure tests. We place special emphasis on indirect structure tests.
These are strong (special) behavior tests that can provide information on
potential structural flaws. Since they combine the strength of structural
orientation with the advantage of being quantifiable, indirect structure tests
seem to be the most promising direction for research on model validation.
We demonstrate two different validity testing software designed at Bogazici
University to assist with indirect structure testing (SiS) and behavior pattern
testing (BTS II). SiS software does automatic dynamic pattern recognition,
indirect structure testing and pattern=oriented model calibration. Our
behavior pattern testing (BTS II) software is also pattern-oriented. It
estimates and compares the major dynamic pattern components that exist in
the simulated and actual dynamic behaviors. *Supported by Bogazici
University Rereacrh Fund no. 06HA305.

Modeling of Real Estate Price Oscillations in
Istanbul

The purpose of this study is to develop an understanding of the dynamics of
the real estate market in Istanbul. As a result of the unavoidable delays in
perception of the real estate condition and construction of new buildings, the
market variables are strongly oscillatory. A system dynamics model is
constructed to understand the reasons of oscillations in real estate prices in
Istanbul from the perspective of a construction company. The model includes
the factors effecting the speed and size of the construction side (supply) and
sales (demand). The model focuses on the balance/imbalance between
housing supply and demand as a result of fundamental material and
information delays, rather than costs and interest rates. Different scenarios
are tested to improve the current oscillatory behavior. This model can serve
as a simulation basis for predicting the reaction of the market to changes in
the decisions of internal players and external inputs.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Andrea Marcello Bassi

4141@ stud.liuc.it
Millennium Institute

2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650

Arlington VA 22201
USA

Steffen Bayer
s.bayer@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Tanaka Business School
South Kensington Campus
London SW7 2AZ UK

Martina K6berle-Gaiser

martina koberle-gaiser@ imperial.ac.uk

Imperial College London
Innovation Studies Centre
Tanaka Business School
London SW7 2AZ UK

James Barlow
j.barlow@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Business School

South Kensington Campus
London SW7 2AZ UK

Allyson Beall

abeall@ mail. wsu.edu
Washington State University
PO Box 921

Pullman WA 99163

USA

Andrew Ford

forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
Environmental Science

PO Box 644430

Pullman WA 99164-4430
USA

Threshold 21 (T21) USA: Behavior Description

This paper provides an overview of the projecti i by the base
case of the Threshold 21 (T21) model customized to the United States of
America. The present study highlights the main results of the simulation of
the model for the three spheres, society, economy and environment and
shows more in detail the behavior of the energy sector.

Planning for Adaptability in Healthcare
Infrastructure

As part of an i system, h should be planned
and evaluated in conjunction with the services it supports. However, this is
challenging because of uncertainty about future requirements due to
technological, demographic, medical and policy change. Long lasting
infrastructure needs to support healthcare processes that change rapidly. In
the UK public private partnership models provide additional challenges for
the National Heath Service. Contractual agreements between public sector
providers of care services and the organi ible for the provision
and maii of the built infi typically last 30 years or more.
Over this period both the demands for care services and the technologies used
to deliver them are likely to change considerably. Infrastructure needs to be
able to adapt to these changes, and planning tools need to recognise the
interdependencies within the care service and care infrastructure system.
System dynamics modelling offers the potential to plan for these challenges.
It can help to guide the planning process of new healthcare infrastructure
under conditions of uncertainty, so that the services it enables can meet
present and future needs. The stylised model presented considers care service
delivery over time depending on infrastructure flexibility options (e.g. to
increase capacity) under different scenarios.

Participatory Modeling for Adaptive Management:
Reports from the Field II

As the natural world has become dominated by human influences the need
for the public involvement in natural resource management decisions has
become vital. In addition, scientists are now viewing nature as a dynamic
rather than “in balance”. To accommodate these paradigms, natural resource
managers have been encouraged to look holistically at the problems they
manage through the lens of adaptive management. Current adaptive

theory i p variability, , the relationship of
impacts with respect to potential temporal and spatial disconnects, and social
concerns. Add the obvious need for modeling and the stage is set for
participatory system dynamics modeling. Participatory SD modeling is a
process that can integrate science and local knowledge with policy, and open
the lines of communication between potentially different world views. We
will use case studies to highlight three characteristics of participatory

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 63

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Todd BenDor

bendor@ uiuc.edu

University of North Carolina
New East Building

Campus Box # 31

40
Chapel Hill NC 27599-3140 USA

Michael Bergbauer
michael bergbauer@ chello.at
Mobilkom Austria

Obere Donaustrasse 2

1020 Wien

Austria

Carmine Bianchi
bianchi@ unipa it

University of Palermo

Via Mazzini 59 (c/o CED4)
90139 Palermo

Italy

64 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

environmental modeling to illustrate the flexibility of process and the
effectiveness of a broad range of interventions. 1) Interventions may take
place anywhere on the “problem identification to solution producing”

2 L in the actual building of the model
varies; the “hands on” continuum. 3) The type of data required varies on the
“qualitative to quantitative” continuum.

Modeling the Wetland Mitigation Process: A New
Dynamic Vision of No Net Loss Policy

Over the last two hundred years, the United States has experienced dramatic
losses in wetland coverage and quality. In 1987, the National Wetlands
Policy Forum recommended that U.S. wetlands policy should achieve overall
“no net loss” of the country’s remaining wetland acreage and function. Since
then, regulations requiring compensatory mitigation for wetland losses, often
through wetland creation or restoration, have become an essential component
of federal wetland protection efforts. Recent reports have concluded that no
net loss policy has been successful, citing the virtual elimination of wetland
losses experienced in certain areas. However, these reports have not assessed
the temporal nature of wetland loss and restoration. Delays in initiating and
completing restoration activities mean that frequent temporary wetland losses
can contribute to a consistent net loss over time. This paper analyzes wetland
loss and compensation as dynamic processes that include temporal lags
endemic to various mitigation Here, a system ics model of
the mitigation process is used to explore wetland alteration and mitigation
data collected between 1993 and 2004 for the Chicago, IL region. By
analyzing wetland change dynamically, it becomes possible to adjust wetland
mitigation methods to more effectively eliminate temporal net loss of
wetlands.

Evolving System Dynamics Models, Model
Identification by Means of Evolutionary Computing

The formulation of a System Dynamics Simulation Model is a bottom up
process which is based on a deep understanding of the causal structure of the
underlying system. In this paper an initial study of a different approach to
modelling is presented. Starting with the output of an unknown model
structure, candidate System Dynamics Models are generated automatically by
means of an evolutionary computation algorithm. This top down approach
could be useful for the selection of model boundaries as well as for the
validation of models in general.

Opportunities and pitfalls in Public policies for
SME districts: A dynamic resource-based-view

Industrial districts (IDs) are considered as a powerful source of wealth for
different categories of ‘actors’ operating in the areas hosting them. Although
business clustering has since always been a spontaneous — rather than
planned — phenomenon, in order to promote local economies, in the last 15
years public institutions have been inclined to establish formal policies to

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Asmeret Bier

asmeret@ wsu.edu
Washington State University
460 NE Maiden Lane #5
Pullman WA 99163

USA

Andrew Ford

forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
Environmental Science

PO Box 644430

Pullman WA 99164-4430 USA

Enzo Bivona
enzobivona@ sciepol.unipa it
University of Palermo
Via Mazzini 59

90139 Palermo

Italy

Francesco Ceresia
feeresia@ libero.it
University of Palermo

foster the start-up or development of IDs. What is it possible to learn from
Italian successful cases of business clustering? What are the main factors
positively affecting and tackling small business networking? What are those
affecting the crisis of a cluster? What are the opportunities and pitfalls that
clustering implies for small business management? What are different
categories of actors who may play an active role in promoting and managing
a business cluster? In particular, what role can public agencies and
governance bodies (e.g. District Committees) play in ID governance? A
Dynamic Resource-Based-View is suggested in this paper, to foster learning
and build consensus among different actors in a district. This approach is
claimed to: (a) identify synergies between alternative policies; (b) affect
sustainable ID growth; (c) detect weak signals of crisis; (d) assess ID
performance and affect it.

A Classroom Simulation of a Tradable Green
Certificate Market and Implications for Model
Development

Tradable green certificate (TGC) markets are economically driven policy
instruments that can be used to increase investment in renewable electricity
generating capacity. This type of policy increases revenue for renewable
electricity generation units, making the units more cost effective in
comparison to conventional electricity generation. An educational classroom
game was created to simulate a TGC market, and was played twice with
university students. Outcomes of the game varied substantially between the
simulations. Strategies for playing the game were discussed with participants,
and students were encouraged to analyze how these strategies affected the
outcomes of the game. Players’ strategies were also used to extend each
simulation past the number of simulation periods actually played, and to
suggest ways to improve decision rules in system dynamics models of TGC
markets.

Exploring the Underground Economy through
System Dynamics to support Public Decision
Makers: a preliminary qualitative analysis

To estimate and analyse the underground economy phenomenon, different
methods and approaches have been provided in literature. However, such
approaches are very often based on static and linear equilibrium models and
seldom adopt simulation tools. This paper results from a research project

Via Croce Rossa 33 conducted in the Sicily Region (Italy) aimed at investigating — through the
90144 Palermo System Dynamics methodol main causes-and-effects i i
Taly underlying the phenomenon of the “hidden workers” at both firm and self-
Giovan Battista level. By bining micro and lysis, the authors

giannimonte@ hotmail.com
University of Palermo
Via del Segugio 8
90125 Palermo

Italy

present a preliminary causal loop diagram of the investigated phenomenon.
Such feedback structure has been built through the support of managers and
representatives of private and public organisations.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 65

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Enzo Bivona
enzobivona@ sciepol.unipa.it
University of Palermo
Via Mazzini 59

90139 Palermo

Italy

Robert J. Bloomfield
1jb9@ cornell.edu

Cornell University

Ithaca NY 14853

USA

Francesca Gino

fgino@ andrew.cmu.edu
Carnegie Mellon University
Tepper School of Business
5000 Forbes Avenue
Pittsburgh PA 15213

USA

Susan L. Kulp

skulp@ hbs.edu

Harvard Business School
Soldiers Field Road
Boston MA 02163

USA

66 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Exploring Intellectual Capital Investments Policies
in a Call Center through A ‘System Dynamics’
Resource Based View

This paper examines alternative Intellectual Capital (IC) investment policies
in a dynamically complex system for explaining differences in firm
performance. Such analysis is supported through the use of a System
Dynamics (SD) simulation model. This paper is based on the hypothesis that
to explain superior performance is not sufficient to look at the endowment of
strategic resources, but it also requires an analysis of the dynamics of
resources accumulation and depletion processes resulting from management
policies. To assess IC impact on company performance, a conceptual
framework and a SD simulation model have been built. Finally, alternative
scenarios results are commented.

Behavioral Causes of the Bullwhip Effect in a Single
Echelon

Two laboratory experiments on a single-echelon inventory task show that
inventory durability interacts with transit lags to create order volatility that
exceeds demand volatility (the bullwhip effect). Durability creates bullwhip
effects because players adjust orders insufficiently to reflect current
inventory and backlogs, much as they adjust orders insufficiently to reflect
holding and backlog costs in S dor studies (e.g., it and
Cachon 2000). Transit lags exacerbate bullwhip-like effects by interfering
with players’ ability to correct prior errors. Our results suggest that bullwhip
effects can be driven by characteristics of inventory and supply chains, even
in the absence of the inter-echelon coordination problems studied by Sterman
(1989a, 1989b) and Croson, Donohue, Katok and Sterman (2005).

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Mathias Bosshardt
mathias.bosshardt@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Institut
OVGA 115

CH-5232 Villigen
Switzerland

Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
silvia.ulli-beer@ psi.ch

PSI

Roggenweg 7

4900 Langenthal
Switzerland

Fritz Gassmann
fritz.gassmann@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Institute
CH-5232 Villigen
Switzerland

Alexander Wokaun
alexander.wokaun@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Insitut
CH-5232 Villigen
Switzerland

Malcolm Brady
malcolm.brady@ dcu.ie
Dublin City University
Glasnevin

Dublin 9

Ireland

Bill Braun

bbraun@ hithsys.com

Cleveland Clinic

3833 Kirkwood Road

Cleveland Heights OH 44121-1803
USA

Developing a diffusion model of competing
alternative drive-train technologies (cadt-model)

Strategic measures for global ecology and security of energy supply
particularly affect road traffic, as a main originator of greenhouse gas
emissions by use of fossil energy. The introduction of several alternative,
eco-friendly drive-train technologies in the automotitve fleet leads to a
cempetition with the existing petrol and diesel engines as well as with each
other. A system dynamics model is developed to understand the fundamental
competing forces driving the market p ration of the new 1 and
to derive policy implications and strategies potentially contributing to their

A model is f d to examine different
diffusion patterns between competing technologies. First results show, that
reaching a critical market share in time is a decisive factor. This is
demonstrated for the case of Switzerland, that represents a demand driven
market without an autonomous automotive industry.

Al

ertising effectiveness and spillover: simulating
strategic interaction using advertising

This paper examines the strategic interaction between two firms competing
using advertising. The simulation is based on the Cournot analytical duopoly
model. The paper discusses the analytical model and then discusses the
simulation model. The paper discusses the ways in which the simulation
model is different, usually for pragmatic reasons, to the analytical model. The
paper shows results of the model for a number of competitive scenarios.
These scenarios demonstrate that small changes in model parameters lead to
large differences in firm and industry behavior. The paper demonstrates that
positive spillover (cooperation) reduces the impact of advertising and
negative spillover (predation) increases the impact of advertising.

The Dynamics of the Eroding Goals Archetype

Various attempts have been made to construct dynamic simulation models of
the system archetypes. This paper examines the eroding goals archetype and
hypothesizes that achieving classical archetypal behavior over time requires
the inclusion of structures that are technically outside the common

descri finition of the archetype. Four di of managerial
decision-making sensitivity are introduced into the model in order to achieve
the expected dynamic behaviors described in the literature.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 67

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Fernando Buendia
fernando buendia@ udlap.mx
University of the Americas Puebla
Santa Catarina Martir

Cholula Puebla

Mexico

Newton Paulo Bueno

npbueno@ ufv.br

Federal University of Vigosa

Dept de Economia Campus Universitario
36571-000 Vicosa Minas Gerais

Brazil

James R. Burns

jburns@ ba.ttu.edu

Texas Tech University

Rawls College of Business Admin
15th and Flint

Lubbock TX 79409-2101 USA

Balaji Janamanchi

bjanamanchi@ tamiu.edu

Texas A&M International University
PH 304C College of Business (DIBTS)
5201 University Boulevard

Laredo TX 78041-1900 USA

68 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Self-organizing Markets

This paper develops a model to understand self-organizing markets. This
kind of markets is characterized by a highly skewed distribution of firms’
size, so a way to explain them is by introducing increasing returns to the
growth of the firm. In this paper, besides, I show how urn theory can be used
to formalize the model suggested in this paper.

A macroeconomic systemic model for the Brazilian
economy

The purpose of this paper is to show that a simple systemic model is able to
“{mitate” the behavior of a complex economy as the Brazilian one.The main
identified features of the Brazilian economy are:1) the short term growth rate
is influenced in an important way by the effective demand; in the medium
term, however, the growth is restricted by real factors such as the capital
stock and the capacity to import ; 2) attempts of growing above the rate
allowed by those restrictions accelerate the inflation rate or provoke
unbalance in the balance of payments; 3) in both cases, the government is
forced, earlier or later, to adopt restrictive monetary policies to reduce the
final demand growth rate, reducing the domestic absorption of resources; 4)
an important leverage point to reach a sustainable growth path is to create
conditions for a consistent increase of the exports. 5) the growth of exports in
the medium term, however, requires significant investments in
competitiveness acquisition, without which the country will be limited to sell
products in international markets already saturated such as the one of
commodities and, therefore, with limited growth potential.

Dynamics of a Democracy Deeply in Debt:
Simulation Studies of Federal Revenue and the
Capacity of the U.S. to Service its Debt

The issue of the growing federal debt and whether it will be serviceable in the
years to come is addressed. Can the U.S. federal government continue to
expect its tax revenues to rise to the occasion? Will the retirement of seventy-
seven million baby boomers result in diminished federal revenue after the
year 2010? Will the changing tax structure reduce federal revenues? Will
these circumstances lead in-turn to an incapacity of our federal government
to service its burgeoning national debt, now nine trillion dollars? Are there
probable disaster scenarios that policymakers must navigate using judicious
policy choices? Is it time to start drastically cutting the federal budget? These
are the ions that get d by the si ion models we will present.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

John E. Butler
jebutler@ hawaii.edu
University of Hawaii
Shidler College of Business
2404 Maile Way D311B
Honolulu HI 96822

USA

Wai-ming Mak

mswmmak@ polyu.edu.hk

Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Dept of Management and Marketing
Hung Hom Kowloon 00001

Hong Kong

China

Ricardo Matos Chaim
rmchaim1@ yahoo.com.br
Dataprev

SHIIGS 713 Bloco RI Casa 63
70380-729 Brasilia DF

Brasil

Myong-Hun Chang
m.chang@ csuohio.edu
Cleveland State University
Department of Economics
Cleveland OH 44140

USA

Organizational Growth and Population Dynamics:
Strategies for Success

Abstract This paper examines the impact of population decline on an
organization serving youth, to determine its impact on membership over a
sixty year period. A double population chain model is used to identify
population dynamics at the city and organization level. The model shows that
membership would be greatly affected and that the response could either be
downsizing or restructuring of activities. A multi-attribute model is then used
to identify the preferences in all age groups of scouting to identify the criteria
that they value in a after school activity and which activities compete with
scouting.

Dynamic Stochasticity in the control of liquidity in
Asset and Liability Management (ALM) for pension
funds

System dynamics may enhance Asset and Liability Management (ALM)
capability to be risk oriented. Many integrated ALM problem for pension
funds has been modeled to address, among others, liquidity control. The
purpose is to provide long-term liquidity control prognoses for investment
decisions as a way to forecast long-term scenarios and to develop an
integrated policy for assets and liabilities.

Non-Equilibrium Industry Dynamics with
Knowledge-Based Competition: An Agent-Based
Computational Model

An t-based model is ped to explore the
evolutionary dynamics of an industry which is subject to knowledge-based
competition with entry and exit. It views the production process as a system
of inter-dependent activities and the firm as an adaptive entity whose survival
depends on its ability to perform various activities with greater efficiency
than its rivals. The model is capable of generating many empirical
regularities, including those on firm turnovers, evolving market structure, and
the int dust ical diversity. C i analyses are
performed to investigate how these regularities ; are affected by various
industry-specific factors such as the attributes of the market environment,
search propensities and the nature of the technology space in which
individual firm's learning takes place.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 69

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Karim J. Chichakly
kchichakly@ iseesys.com

isee systems inc

31 Old Etna Rd Suite SN
Lebanon NH 03766

USA

Karim J. Chichakly
kchichakly@ iseesys.com

isee systems inc

31 Old Etna Rd Suite SN
Lebanon NH 03766

USA

Catherine Chiong Meza
c.m.chiongmeza@ tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5

2628 BX Delft

The Netherlands

G.P.J. Dijkema

g-pj.dijkema@ tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Technology Policy and Mgt
PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

70 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

SMILE and XMILE: A Common Language and
Interchange Format for System Dynamics

Proposed four years ago, SMILE has made minimal progress toward a full-
fledged specification that System Dynamics software vendors can use to
interchange models. This paper attempts to move the development of the
standard one step further with a draft specification of both the language that
needs to be interchanged (SMILE) and an XML format for that language
(XMILE). Central to the success of this standard is the idea of three
increasing levels of compliance, only the lowest level (interchange of
equations) being required of all vendors.

Modeling Agile Development: When is it Effective?

It is very difficult to deliver high-quality software (i.e., with very few bugs)
in a reasonable time period. Indeed, it is not unusual on medium to large
projects to spend as much time fixing bugs as delivering new features. One of
the most challenging issues in software development is keeping pace with
changing customer requirements. Agile development was born from the idea
that software development needs to be quick on its feet, responding to
changing customer i without ip ising delivery or
quality. It was founded on the principle of embracing change rather than
fighting it. Some of the fundamental principles of Agile development include
frequent customer interaction, frequent releases, writing tests before code,
nightly builds with automated testing, and not implementing more than you
know the customer needs. Yet there is a surging debate about whether Agile
works and when it works. This paper i i when Agile devel

methods may work and the relative advantages of different parts of the
methodology.

Scenario Analysis using System Dynamics
Modelling: The case of Production Portfolio Change
in the Dutch Paper and Board Industry

A scenario analysis on plausible futures served to explore the Dutch Paper
and Board — P&B ~ Industry’s resilience towards competition in the form of
an aggressive investment from outside the current industry. A System
Dynamics model helped to visualize the effects on the Dutch industry’s
production portfolio. A scenario-space was constructed by combining three
mega trends — Demand-shift for P&B products, Social awareness of recycling
and Dutch business environment — and five alternative set-ups of a new
facility by the prospective competitor. The model output reveals the
dominance of the Demand-shift for P&B products, reinforced by the Social

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Cornelia van Daalen
c.vandaalen@ thm.tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Tech Policy and Mgt
PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

Francesco Chirico
francesco.chirico@ lu.unisi.ch
University of Lugano

Via G Buffi 13

6900 Lugano

Switzerland

Gianluca Colombo
gianluca.colombo@ lu.unisi.ch
University of Lugano

Via Giuseppe Buffi 13
CH-6904 Lugano
Switzerland

Daniel Chomiakow
daniel.chomiakow@ gmx.net
University of Mannheim
Darmstaedter Strasse 44
64367 Muehltal

Germany

awareness of recycling, for a good performance of the Dutch P&B Industry,
regardless of the new facility type. The Dutch business environment offers
limited scope to counterbalance the decreasing sales of P&B products.
Interestingly, this industry retains growing sales and profits patterns even in
the worst-case scenario. The case study confirmed that the combination of
scenario analysis and System Dynamics could support the analysis and
visualization of the effects of major, competitive investments on a mature
industry.

The effect of Family Inertia on the Value Creation
Process in Family Firms: New Insights from a
Simulation Study

The present research can be viewed as a contribution to the literature on the
simulation of first-order models of theory testing and on the simulation of
second-order models of theory building. It sets out through computer
simulations the positive dynamic interconnections studied by
Koiranen&Chirico(2006) between knowledge, capabilities, dynamic
capabilities, entrepreneurial performance and trans-generational value in
family business. Interesting results and new insights emerge introducing
family inertia in the model(as a function of paternalism) which influences the
creation of capabilities and dynamic capabilities negatively, with some
exceptions. We conclude that although a paternalistic behaviour can be
positive in guiding and training offspring at the beginning of the activity, it
may become less crucial if it persists over time preventing change even when
it is needed. Family firms should be able to understand the long-term effects
and results of actual events, decisions and behaviours, and, at the same time,
prevent their negative consequences.

A Generic Pattern for Modeling Manufacturing
Companies

The insights presented in this paper were gained during the early phase of an
ongoing master’s thesis, analyzing the supply chain of one particular branch
of manufacturing industry. Prior to the investigation of the supply chain as a
whole, several models needed to be assembled to facilitate the analyses of the
separate stages. Each stage usually consists of numerous companies which

can - due to their - be and as one single
company. For this purpose, a generic approach was designed to assist in
i ive models of ies from the fi in;

industry. This approach is introduced in the paper by identifying all sectors
that compose the business of a manufacturing company and by pointing out
the interdependencies among those sectors. Subsequently, a model case
demonstrates one potential way of transforming the generic pattern of
causalities into a simulation model, including an exemplary set of model
equations. Eventually, an analysis of one simulation run and its implications
is d d, and ideas for ad of the approach are discussed.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 71

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Nazli Choucri
nchoucri@ mit.edu

MIT

E53-493

Cambridge MA 01239
USA

Daniel Goldsmith
goldsmith@ mitedu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
50 Memorial Drive E53-323
Cambridge MA 02139 USA

Stuart Madnick
smadnick@ mit.edu
MIT

30 Wadsworth Street Room E53-321

Cambridge MA 02142
USA

J. Bradley Morrison
bmorriso@ brandeis.edu
Brandeis University

19 Fox Run Road
Bedford MA 01730
USA

Michael Siegel
msiegel@ mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School E53-323
Cambridge MA 02142
USA

Thomas D. Clark
tom54clark@ comcast.net
Strategy Associates LLC
10382 West Remington Drive
Littleton CO 80127

USA.

Mary C. Jones
jonesm@ untedu
University of North Texas
Box 305249

Denton TX 76203

USA

72 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Using System Dynamics to Model and Better
Understand State Stability

The world can be complex and dangerous - the loss of state stability of
countries is of increasing concern. Although every case is unique, there are
important common p We have ped a system dy ics model
of state stability based on an extensive review of the literature and
debriefings of subject matter experts. We represent the nature and dynamics
of the 'loads' generated by insurgency activities, on the one hand, and the core
features of state resilience and its 'capacity' to withstand these 'loads,' on the
other. The challenge is to determine when threats to stability override the
resilience of the state and, more important, to anticipate propensities for
‘tipping points,’ that is, the conditions under which small additional changes
in anti-regime activity can generate major disruptions. With these insights,
we can identify appropriate and actionable mitigation factors to decrease the
likelihood of 'tipping' and enhance prospects for stability.

Achieving Competitive Advantage in a High
Turnover, Dynamic Market: A Causal Model
Approach

This paper uses a dynamic systems perspective to establish a causal model of
how organizations can achieve and maintain competitive advantage in highly
competitive situations where unique resources do not exist. The study is
grounded in the resource based theory of the firm, and the model is
developed from research surrounding this theory and from an extensive
fifteen month in-depth examination of an organization in this type of market.
Results suggest that keys to achieving a competitive advantage in this
situation arise from the ability to establish a strong competitive culture,
detailed execution of organizational processes, rapid assimilation of high
caliber talent into the organization, and establishment of a constant sense of
urgency in preparation and execution of plans. This is expressed as an
integrated theory of competitive behavior in a causal model that illustrates
the complex feedback nature of organizations in highly competitive, high
turnover situations.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

John Cody

john.cody@ vuw.ac.nz

Victoria University of Wellington
PO Box 50-302

Porirua 5240

New Zealand

Robert Y. Cavana
bob.cavana@ vuw.ac.nz

Victoria University of Wellington
PO Box 600

Wellington

New Zealand

David Pearson
david.pearson@ vuw.ac.nz
Victoria University of Wellington

School of Social and Cultural Studies

PO Box 600
Wellington
New Zealand

Gianluca Colombo
gianluca.colombo@ lu.unisi.ch
University of Lugano

Via Giuseppe Buffi 13
CH-6904 Lugano
Switzerland

Francesco Chirico
francesco.chirico@ lu.unisi.ch
University of Lugano

Via G Buffi 13

6900 Lugano

Switzerland

Carlo Comaschi
carlo.comaschi@ gmail.com

Eni Corporate University

Via Salvo |

20097 San Donato Milanese MI
Italy

Vincenzo Di Giulio

enzo.digiulio@ enicorporateuniversity.eni.it

Eni Corporate University

Via S Salvo |

20097 San Donato Milanese MI
Italy

Social structure and health: preliminary work on a
system dynamics ‘concept model’

Health 'disparity' is a current public policy issue. This creates possibilities for
public ion of ics that stratify population health status. A short
review of current discussion in public health and sociology is used to create a
conceptual framework for factors that influence disparities, namely
dominance, disorder and isolation. The framework provides the basis for a
system dynamics ‘concept model’. Work in progress on the model is outlined.
The model is to be used when discussing ways in which local civic action can
reduce health disparities.

Understanding Family Businesses as Value
Creating Systems through System Dynamics

In this article family businesses are viewed as value generator systems, where
the value is created across generations, accumulated inside the firms and/or
distributed to the families’ members in accordance to the ownership structure
(degree of fi ). The value is through the innovations
implemented and it is eroded due to the innovation obsolescence. This
process is affected by two variables: the psychological ownership shown by
the shareholders and the dynamic iliti d by the knowledge-
related human capital and by the social capital. The aim of the present
research is to explore, extend and test the dynamics of the FITS model
through computer simulations in system dynamics and provide new insights
about the family business evolution across generations (90 year simulation -
3 genrations - are provided). Family governance and family ownership play a
crucial role for the creation of value in family business. The two variables
will be analysed and simulated in order to capture their effect on our model
as a whole.

Natural gas demand and supply in Italy

The article explores the dynamics between natural gas demand and supply in
Italy. The strong increase in natural gas demand since the beginning of the
70s represents a deep transformation of Italy’s energy system which gives
rise to security problems. In order to supply Italy with increasing volumes of
natural gas, some new pipelines and regasification plants are expected in the
next future, but their implementation is uncertain. Thus, there is possibility of
natural gas shortage in the future. On the other hand, if all the expected
projects will be i situations of pply cannot be excluded. In
order to study such a problem, a system dynamics model has been built. The

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 73

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Eleonora Sormani
eleonora.sormani@ gmail.com

Eni Corporate University

Via Salvo 1

20097 San Donato Milanese MI
Italy

David L. Cooke
dlcooke@ ucalgary.ca
University of Calgary

1008 Beverley Blvd SW
Calgary AB T2V 2C5 Canada

Huiming Yang

huimyang@ cancerboard.ab.ca

Alberta Cancer Board

Div of Population Health & Information
2202 2nd Street Holy Cross Site
Calgary AB T2S 3C1 Canada

Gil Curry

gil.curry@ calgaryhealthregion.ca
Foothills Medical Centre

1403 29th St NW

Calgary AB T2N 2T9 Canada

Paul Rogers

rogers@ enme.ucalgary.ca
University of Calgary

Shulich School of Engineering
2500 University Drive NW
Calgary AB T2N 1N4 Canada

Thomas R. Rohleder
tom.rohleder@ haskayne.ucalgary.ca
University of Calgary

Haskayne School of Business
2500 University Drive NW
Calgary AB T2N 1N4 Canada

Eva-Maria Cronrath
eva.cronrath@ gmail.com
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss
68131 Mannheim

Germany

Alexander Zock

alexander.zock@ ecad-aviation.de
European Ctr for Aviation Development
Lise-Meitner-Strasse 10

62493 Darmstadt

Germany

74 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

model core consists of a stock representing the transport network, with the
total natural gas supply acting as inflows, and the total natural gas demand as
an outflow. A key role in the model is played by the gas storage system and
its capacity to inject or extract natural gas from the network, in order to
match supply and demand. The model allows to explore future scenarios,
make sensitivity analysis and verify under which conditions a balance
between demand and supply exists.

Introducing System Dynamics Modeling to Health
Care in Alberta

Alberta, Canada is going through a period of unprecedented demand for
health services, driven by the Province’s growth. Problems arising from
population growth have led to a gradual realization among health region
planners that better tools are needed to help make policy decisions. We
discuss our progress to date in introducing systems thinking and system

ing as tools for ig alternative health policy decisions.
To date, we have held a workshop to introduce Calgary Health Region
opinion leaders to what system dynamics can and cannot do, and have begun
model development work in two areas. The first is in emergency care
services and the second is in colorectal cancer screening. In this paper we
describe the problems being tackled and the preliminary (qualitative) models
that have been developed.

Robert C. Lee

robert.lee@ calgaryhealthregion.ca

Calgary Health Region

Foothills Medical Ctre S Tower Rm 602
1403 29th St NW

Calgary AB T2N 2T9 Canada

David Strong

Calgary Health Region

10101 Southport Road SW
Calgary AB T2W 3N2 Canada

Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovations by
Analogies: Examples of the Mobile
Telecommunication Market

For successful business planning it is essential for a company to quantify its
i volumes. In this article we present first results on

on of products in the telecommunication market. The
method used is applicable to established products with sales histories as well
as to new products prior to their launch. Building on a System Dynamics
formulation of the Bass model, Thomas’s framework for forecasting by
analogies, i.e. existing products with a high degree of similarity to an

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Margarita Maria
Cruz Barrientos
macusita.82@ gmail.com
University of Bergen

Calle 18 Sur #35-160 Apto 301
Edificio Venecia

574 Medellin Colombia

Christian Luiz Da Silva
christians@ fae.edu

UniFAE

Rua Pedro Wobeto 14 Boqueirao
CEP 81670310 Curitiba Parana
Brazil

innovation, is extended. We illustrate the applicability of the forecasting
method by simulating future sales of mobile communication devices and
inflight mobile phone usage.

Evaluating System Dynamics as a Tool for Teaching
History

History has been traditi taught as a p of isolated facts which
fill students’ minds with a great volume of dates, actors and events. However,
students are seldom encouraged to relate what they learn with changes over
time. Thus, they present a lack of understanding of what history has to do
with them. Therefore, there is a strong need of placing the understanding of
this subject into a structured pattern that leads students to the understanding
not only of the past, but also of the present and the future. In this paper, SD is
evaluated as a tool to enhance students’ understanding of history.
Experiments with high school students were run, in which SD and the
conventional method of teaching history were tested with groups of students
with either no previous experimental experience with the teaching method or
without previous experimental experiences on them. The results present the
SD teaching method as a better tool to teach history with students who used
SD before. however, the conventional method reveals to be persistent in
student’s minds when they do not posses any previous experience with SD.
Important are for future repli of the experiment.

Analysis Model for State Intervention in the Local

Socioec ic Development

The state role in economy has been a controversial subject matter in the last
decades. Insufficient public resources and increased demand require the State
to be more judicious and efficient. In such context, this article aims at
assessing economic impact of the socioeconomic development urban
equipment. Taking into consideration the state intervention in economy, we
developed a dynamic model involving public resource management,
population growth, income increase and individual well-being. Based on the
premise that urban equipment provides some kind of services for a certain
parcel of population, the higher is the State investing capacity, the lower is
the deficit concerning the population not provided with such services.
Services are provided at a given cost that determines the individual well-
being increment when compared to the service value. The aforementioned
model allowed us to carry out the analysis of service cost variation versus
family average income in a community of 20 thousand people for a 20-year
period. The analysis i taxation and exp as being the main
current public variables. We observed that the State participation, through
new urban equipment, has a positive impact when it is considered an element
of local development process.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 75

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Brice A. Dattée
b.dattee@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Tanaka Business School
Innovation Studies Centre
London SW7 2AZ

UK

David FitzPatrick
david fitzpatrick@ ucd.ie
University College Dublin

Henry Birdseye Weil

weilco@ compuserve.com

MIT

Sloan School of Management

50 Memorial Drive Room E52-541
Cambridge MA 02142-1347

USA

Michael A. Deegan
md7875@albany.edu
University at Albany

56F Weis Road

Albany NY 12208

USA

Sebastian Derwisch
s.derwisch@ cgiar.org
Worldagroforestry Centre (ICRAF)
United Nations Avenue Gigiri

Po Box 30677-00100

Nairobi

Kenya

Birgit Kopainsky

birgit kopainsky@ flury-giuliani.ch
University of Bergen
Fosswinckelsgate 6

5007 Bergen

Norway

76 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

The Dynamics of Technological Substitutions

Technological substitution is the process by which disruptive technologies
replace the dominant ones in an industry. Such paradigmatic shifts have a
great effect on the strategic planning. The formulations of classical models of
diffusion and substitution impose simplification constraints to reach
analytical solvability. We use the System Dynamics methodology to build
upon existing models by integrating dynamic aspects derived from a broad
theoretical framework and to explore the links between social dynamics,
technological developments and substitution patterns. Our simulation model
generates a substitutive drop in the life cycle: a “Sydney opera” shape which
is not replicated by classical models but which is substantiated by empirical
data from the successive generations of DRAM. The generic structure can
generate the dynamics of a sailing ship effect and account for the non-
uniformity of interpersonal communications. The more general theory
embodied in the model allows to better und d the underlying

of technological substitutions.

Exploring U.S. Flood Mitigation Policies: A
Feedback View of System Behavior

Despite the availability of policy tools to mitigate property damage, relief
costs for disasters continue to rise. This paper presents a framework for
analyzing flood mitigation policies and policy design challenges in the
United States. The system dynamics model prepared for this research was
developed from qualitative data collected from over 300 sources, including
the extant literature on natural disasters, statements made by disaster experts,
government documents, policy analyses, and federal disaster mitigation
policies. The generic structure developed for this research, the flood- L model,
explains the of major p in any flood-p

Eleven policies were analyzed against three scenarios to show the benefit its
and burdens of several types of mitigation policies. The policies selected in
this analysis reflect the incentives established in the federal government’s
Community Rating System (CRS). In this paper, I show how the system
dynamics model was used as a theoretical framework and policy analysis tool
to explain the policy design I in every flood-p

Modelling the role of Intellectual Property
Manag t for the develop t of the
agricultural sector in developing countries -

The project is based on the activities of the West African Seed Alliance and
generates insights into the development process of the agricultural sector in
general and the seed market in specific by developing a system dynamics
model of these sectors. Using the model, the impact of Intellectual Property
Management as a policy parameter that could level the power relations
between dominant actors of the international private sector and local actors
that want to enter and succeed in the seed market will be illustrated.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Rajat Dhawan

r.dhawan@ econ.usyd.edu.au

University of Sydney

Business Information Systems

Faculty of Economics and Business H69
Sydney NSW Australia

Marcus O'Connor
University of Sydney
Business Information Systems
Sydney NSW 2006

Australia

Mark Borman

University of Sydney
Business Information Systems
Sydney NSW 2006

Australia

Rajat Dhawan

r.dhawan@ econ.usyd.edu.au

University of Sydney

Business Information Systems

Faculty of Economics and Business H69
Sydney NSW Australia

Marcus O'Connor
University of Sydney
Business Information Systems
Sydney NSW 2006

Australia

Mark Borman

University of Sydney
Business Information Systems
Sydney NSW 2006

Australia

Yong Du

ydu@ cs.toronto.edu

University of Toronto
Department of Computer Science
10 King’s College Road

Toronto ON MSS 3G4 Canada

What Our Mental Models Retain and What They
Don’t: An Experimental Follow-up of System
Dynamics Intervention

System dynamics tools claim to enhance our mental models by enabling us to
understand the elements of dynamic complexity thereby improving
performance in dynamic decision-making tasks. However to date these
claims have not been subject to rigorous experimental testing. The main
purpose of this study is to experimentally assess the long-term efficacy of
system dynamics interventions in understanding complex dynamic. This is
done by evaluating the effectiveness of system dynamics intervention that
was provided five months prior to the current examination. The results
demonstrate if (and which) elements of dynamic complexity are retained
even when people are not actively involved in using system dynamics. The
follow-up tests reveal that system dynamics intervention does make long-
term, fundamental changes in the way people think about complex systems.
Specifically, the ability to understand stocks and flows and recognize
feedback loop is retained.

Qualitative, Quantitative or both?: An
Experimental Investigation

System dynamics tools are used extensively to assist in understanding
complex feedback systems and design high leverage policies. These tools,
both qualitative and quantitative, claim to enhance our mental models by
enabling us to understand the elements of dynamic complexity, thereby
improving performance in dynamic decision-making tasks. However to date
these claims have not been subject to rigorous experimental testing.
Furthermore, the i ip between quali and itative system.
dynamics with respect to their ion and their respecti fi in
dynamic decision making tasks has been somewhat controversial The main
purpose of this study is to experimentally evaluate the relative efficacy of
qualitative system dynamics, quantitative system dynamics and a

of the two in complex dynamic systems. The
results demonstrate if, how and when these methodologies influence our
ing of dynamic si Our findings suggest that mere

qualitative system dynamics tools are helpful only in tackling simple
situations. However, mere quantitative system dynamics tools aid in much
more complex problems. Furthermore, the combination of the two tools is aid
in the understanding and subsequent performance in tasks involving dynamic
complexity.

Incorporating System Dynamics Modeling into
Goal-oriented Adaptive Requirements Engineering

Adaptive requii are system i that change either internally,
or externally in the environment, where environment includes the users and
other systems interacting with the subject system. Modeling and analyzing

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 77

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Richard G. Dudley
richard.dudley@ attglobal.net

PMB 239

14845 SW Murray Scholls Dr Ste 110
Beaverton OR 97007-9237 USA

Jim Duggan

jim.duggan@ nuigalway.ie

National University of Ireland Galway
D of ion Te 2

adaptive requirements are important because change is a ubiquitous
phenomenon in social-technical systems. Engineering adaptive requirements
is also difficult because many contextual factors need to be taken account of,
and some of these factors (e.g., human intentional changes) are hard to
quantify. This paper investigates an approach to modeling adaptive
requirements by integrating system dynamics modeling into i* goal-oriented
modeling. We illustrate that each modeling method has its advantages that
are difficult or impossible to achieve using the other method, and each has its
limitations that can be overcome using the other method. We then propose a
goal-oriented adaptive requirements engineering (GARE) approach that
integrates desirable features of system dynamics into i*, taking advantage of
the goal-oriented modeling initiatives in i* and the built-in constructs in
system dynamics for modeling time-based system evolution and adaptation.

The Equity Supply Chain: Is it the Cause of So Few
Women in Management and Leadership Positions?

Women have comprised over half of US university students since the 1980s.
Women make up 45% of the US workforce. However women are poorly
represented in senior and leadership positions both in industry and on
university faculties. Only 16% of corporate officers and only 2% of CEOs at
major are women. If ii ing numbers of women have been in
the pipeline for over 25 years should more have emerged at the other end as
leaders? A simple model indicates that the pipeline delay hypothesis is not
sufficient to explain the relatively small numbers of women in senior and
leadership roles.

A Simulator for Continuous Agent-Based Modelling

This paper describes a simulation environment that can be used to integrate

University Road
Galway Ireland

78 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

jation-level ics with those occurring at an individual, or agent-
based, level. The benefit of this approach is that individual agent behaviour
may be mapped at a detailed level, using differential equations, and
aggregated over the entire population in order to determine population-level
dynamics. Furthermore, individual agents can interact with one another, in
terms of a social network structure. The environment is firmly grounded in
the system dynamics approach, and, unlike conventional agent-based
ing is not required in order to specify
agent interactions and behaviours. The approach is validated by using a case
study based on market dynamics. The overall benefits of the approach are
summarised, and future work discussed.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jorge A. Duran Encalada
jorgea.duran@ udlap.mx

Universidad de las Americas Puebla
College of Business Administration
AP No 100

Cholula Puebla 72820 Mexico

Alberto Paucar-Caceres
a.paucar@ mmu.ac.uk

Manchester Metropolitan University
Business School Aytoun Building
Aytoun Street

Manchester M1 3GH UK

Varun Dutt
varundutt@ yahoo.com
Carnegie Mellon University
5000 Forbes Avenue

208-J Porter Hall 2nd Floor
Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA

Cleotilde Gonzalez

conzalez@ andrew.cmu.edu

Carnegie Mellon University
Social and Decision Sciences Dept
5000 Forbes Ave Porter Hall 208
Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA

Michael F. Dwyer
mdwyer@ unlv.nevada.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
2109 Madagascar Lane

Las Vegas NV 89117

USA

Krystyna A. Stave
krystyna.stave@ unlv.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway

Box 454030

Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA

Sustainability Model for the Valsequillo Lake in
Puebla, Mexico: Combining System Dynamics and
Sustainable Urban Development

This paper reports on an on-going project on urban sustainability of the
Valsequillo Lake in Puebla, Mexico and the Puerto Aura to be developed in
this region. The purpose of the study is to build a simulation model to explore
the dynamic it ion of the di ions inherent in urban
development. After a systematic review of Sustainable Urban Development
(SUD) frameworks and tools used in various part of the world, the paper
designs a model that considers the variables that intervene in SUD and
proposes a System Dynamics model to simulate the dimensions that intervene
in a sustainable development of this type and to anticipate the consequences
of the decision making process. The structure and inter-relationships of the
model sectors are described, the sustainability indicators in each sector
explained; preliminary conclusions are drawn stating that a complete run of
the model simulating a 20 years horizon in monthly periods is expected when
the full data from the Puerto Aura master plan becomes available. Keywords:
i urban ing; envi
methods; system ics; si i Iti thodol

Slope of Inflow Impacts Dynamic Decision Making

In this paper, we show how participants learn to control a simple dynamic
stocks and flows task with repeated inflow and outflow decisions. We present
the effect that environmental inflow functions of different slopes (positive
and negative) have on our ability to control the simple dynamic system. We
investigate this slope effect in two experiments with two kinds of functions
(linear and non-linear), and we formalize the decision-making process
through a System Dynamics model. A process of human and model data
fitting common in the Cognitive Sciences helped explain the reasons for the
differences found in a system in which the slope of the inflow function is
positive in contrast to one in which the slope inflow function is negative
(although the total system net flow is the same).

Assessing the effect of a group model building
interevention: A comparative case study approach

This paper discusses the assessment of a group model building intervention
using a comparative approach. The relative degrees of collaboration and
consensus achieved by two stakeholder teams with similar task and group
are and iP Both groups were ‘professionally’
facilitated, one using a system dynamics group model building approach, and
the other a non-modeling approach. The results support the hypothesis that
the group model building results in a greater degree of collaboration and
consensus in problem solving groups than traditional facilitation methods.
Analysis of more than 2,700 member comments made during meetings

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 79

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Isaac Dyner

idyner@ yahoo.com

Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Carrera 18 #85-90 Apto 602
Bogota

Colombia

Santiago Arango
santiago.arango@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
System Dynamics Group
PO 7800

N-5020 Bergen Norway

Carlos Jaime Franco

cjfranco@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Carrera 80 #65 223 Bloque M8
Medellin

Colombia

James Ellison

jelliso@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories

PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185-1137 USA

Andjelka Kelic

sly@ mitedu

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185 USA

Thomas F. Corbet

tfcorbe@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories

PO Box 5800 MS 0451
Albuquerque NM 87185-0451 USA

Mohamed EI-Minisy
mohamed.a.elminisy@ exxonmobil.com
Regional IT Institute

IIA Hassan Sabri

11211 Zamalek Cairo

Egypt

80 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

a

suggests that the that occurs in a d process is
dominated by alternative generation, virtually ignores what causes the
problem, and fails to separate the stages in the problem-solving process. The
analysis of group model building team comments shows a distinct ‘wave’
action that flows through the problem-solving stages.

Can a Reliability Charge Secure Electricity Supply?
An SD-based assessment of the Colombian power
market

he deregulation of the Colombian electricity market took place in 1994 and
the pool started operation in 1995. The Colombian market adopted a capacity
charge mechanism to increase incentives for investment in new capacity. The
capacity charge proved to be weak in terms of transparency and incentives,
causing negative effects on inves . Nowadays, the ion of the
capacity charge is over and a new mechanism is in place. The new
mechanism, the reliability charge, intends to provide reliability to the system.
We have previously used a st ‘d system ics approach to
evaluate alternative regulation schemes for the Colombian Electricity Market.
In this paper, we have updated the system dynamic model, formerly built, to
evaluate alternatives to the capacity charge mechanism. We have also
assessed the effect that the reliability charge mechanism may have over the
market and found that the proposed scheme may actually overcome some of
the drawbacks of the previous scheme; however, simulations indicate that
this may not have the desirable effects prompt enough to avoid blackouts.

Is A Natural Gas Strategic Reserve for the US
Necessary? A System Dynamics-Based Approach

The large volume of shut-in natural gas production in the US Gulf of Mexico
following the 2005 hurricane season led some US policymakers to consider
whether creating a Natural Gas Strategic Reserve (NGSR) might be
beneficial. This paper uses a system dynamics-based approach to analyze
whether a NGSR is needed, and what having one would mean for the US
natural gas infrastructure. Analysis shows that the infrastructure is likely
resilient in the face of a more stringent test than the 2005 hurricane season
provided. Moreover, as the infrastructure is essentially a closed system, any
replenishment of the NGSR would compete for gas with other users, and
depending on the rate of sk could cause a disruption as large as
that it was created to prevent.

A Generic Dynamic Model for Managing Channel
Conflict in the Egyptian Lubricants Distribution
Channels

It becomes very difficult to achieve needed coordination among channel

members, as one would expect, conflict in marketing channels could also be
caused by differences in the domain definition among channel members. The

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Khaled Wahba

Khaled. wahba@ riti.org

Cairo University

Regional IT Institute

11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211

Egypt

Burak Eskici
burak.eskici@ gmail.com
Bogazici University

Endustri Muh Bol Sesdyn Lab
Bebek 34342 Istanbul

Turkey

Burak Turkgulu
bt947148@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Milne 110

Albany NY 12222
USA

Mary Ewers
mewers@ lanl.gov
Los Alamos National Laboratory

D-4 Infrastructure & Energy Analysis
Decision Applications Division MS K557

Los Alamos NM 87545
USA

Lori Dauelsberg

lorid@ lanl.gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663 MS K557

Los Alamos NM 87545

USA

intensity of channel conflicts can range from minor flare-ups that are easily
forgotten to major di resulting in terminations or lawsuits.Using
the system dynamics as a tool to analyze and understand the cause and effect
of all significant variables and relationships affecting the rate of overlap in
the wholesale channel, the research brings to close that, pressures exerted by
producers on channel members, through incentives, intense number of
channel members, less focus from producers on long term objectives and
investing in strengthening brands, are the major elements of channel such a
channel conflict. As the main research objective is to develop a generic
model for managing channel conflict in the lubricants distribution channels in
Egypt, to simulate future possibilities with different focus scenarios, a model
was developed, tested and validated with respect to the Egyptian market, and
the research is recommending the generic model to be tested and used for
different industries using marketing channels.

Modeling the Dynamics of Avian Influenza
Epidemics and Possible Pandemics

Avian influenza, or “bird flu”, is a contagious disease of animals caused by
viruses that normally infect only birds; however there exist a dramatic
number of infected human cases. This research aims to understand the
dynamics of avian influenza epidemics in a closed, finite area by using
system dynamics methodology. The model is a network that links wild bird,
duck, poultry and human population sectors which are formed by several
classical SIR-model building blocks. The dynamics of recent outbreak is
analyzed with a base model; additionally some scenario and policy analyses
are done with modified models. The simulation experiments show that a
highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak is highly dependant on the
density of poultry population in the region. Growing duck and poultry
populations pose a great risk. A policy involving the recognition and
quarantining of low pathogenic virus infected birds is suggested at the end as
a tentative one.

Pandemic Influenza Mitigation Strategies and their
Economic Impacts

The current avian influenza in Asia, Africa, and Europe has sparked
discussions of a new human pandemic influenza perhaps hitting the world.
While the current influenza is not spread by human-to-human contact—a
necessary characteristic for a human pandemic—there is a potential that it
may become so. Since the pandemic does not currently exist, it is not known
what characteristics—such as infecti and death rate—the disease will
exhibit. The study conducted by the Critical Infrastructure Protection
Decision Support System (CIPDSS) explores the possible mitigation
strategies and their effect on the US economy. Results show that while many
people may be infected, the economic costs for the US are relatively low
compared to past economic perturbations.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 81

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Stephanie J. Fincher
steph_fincher@ hotmail.com
University of Nevada Las Vegas
7904 Canyon Grove Ct

Las Vegas NV 89131

USA

Krystyna A. Stave
krystyna.stave@ unlv.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway

Box 454030

Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA

Michael Fletcher
mefletcher@ gmail.com

9007 Meadow Heights Road
Randallstown MD 21133
USA

Andrew Ford

forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
Environmental Science

PO Box 644430

Pullman WA 99164-4430 USA

82 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

A Proactive Approach for Particulate Matter Air
Pollution Management

This paper analyzes the reactive management approach used in the Las Vegas
Valley to manage particulate matter (PM) pollution, demonstrates that system
dynamics concepts can improve the current strategy, and proposes a more
proactive approach to management. Two decision support systems (DSS)
were compared for this analysis: the current, linear proportional rollback
model and a system dynamics model attempting to capture the essential
feedback structure causing the problem. A retroactive policy analysis,
beginning in 1960, was performed to analyze the benefits and tradeoffs of a
more proactive management strategy. The analysis showed that including a
system dynamics perspective does improve the validity of the model and the
usefulness of the DSS for policy analysis. Preliminary analysis shows that a
proactive approach to management may lead to more effective policy options
and greater flexibility in managing this problem but may have prohibitively
high initial and/or sustained costs in some cases.

A Simple Model of Collaboration

This paper details a system dy ics model that rep: several pt

of collaboration. The model functions as a test bed for the design of a table-
top game of collaboration for management. The model allows for the testing
of game structure, dynamics and decision rules prior to human play testing.
It's main purpose is to ensure that the game represented collaboration
processes with sufficient fidelity to provide a useful learning experience. The
model is structured as a zero-sum-game competition for fixed exogenous
resources among any number of players. The players future resource
allocation is dependent on the players current level of success. The players
decide what fraction of resources to allocate to a local or community
production queues. Production is represented by a material aging chain. The
dynamics were tested using a simple set of decision rules to represent the
actions of human players. Using these decision rules the model output
produced many behaviours in models of in
System Dynamics, Game Theory and Agent Based Models.

Global Warming and System Dynamics

Global warming has emerged as the dominant environmental problem of our
time. The next fifty years will be a period of growing accumulation of
greenhouse gasses (GHG) in the atmosphere and rising temperatures. It could
also be a period in which the nations of the world adopt more stringent
policies to control the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other GHG. If
emissions are cut sufficiently, it is possible to stabilize GHG within the first
half of the century. The risks of global warming could be reduced, but not
eliminated. This paper describes recent applications of system dynamics to
improve our understanding of climate change, and it looks ahead to the
potential contributions in the future.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Tom Lum Forest
tforest@ alum.mitedu
Prometheal Systems

2023 18th Avenue

Forest Grove OR 97116-2717
USA

Hamid Foroughi

hamidforoughi@ yahoo.com

Sharif University of Technology
Graduate School of Mgt and Economics
Azadi Avenue

11365 Tehran Iran

Arash Agha Gholizadeh Khiavi
arash.sav@ gmail.com

Sharif University of Technology
GSME

Azadi Avenue

Tehran Iran

Shahram Abyari Ali Abad
sabyari@ yahoo.com

Tran Khodro

Shahrak e Gharb

Zarafshan St

Tehran Iran

Mahdi Ghasemi
abolghaasem@ yahoo.com
Tran Khodro Sales
Zarafshan St

Farahzadi St Sanat Square
Tehran Iran

Arsalan Paleshi
paleshi6@ yahoo.com
Tkco

Tarasht 3 Dorm Shahid Mohammadi Alley

Tarasht Sheykh Fazlollah Highway
Tehran Iran

Travis Franck
travler@ mitedu

MIT

1 Amherst St 40-428
Cambridge MA 02139
USA

Maya Apocalypse: Warfare-Punctuated
Equilibrium at the Limit of Growth

This paper explores the dynamics of population levels in Mayan lands from
the Late Preclassic to First Contact, roughly 500 BC - 1500 AD. It starts with
a simplified version of the Limits to Growth model and adds the effects of
warfare on available production. Drawing also from the 1976 MIT paper "A
Case Study of the Classic Maya Collapse (D-2429), this paper explores how
humans can politically intensify resource shortages into universal disaster.

How Price Fluctuations is Influenced by the
Response of Intermediaries to Different Sales
Methods:Case Study in Automotive Ind.

TranKhodro Co. (IKCO) is the largest automaker in Middle East. Although
this company has a particular interest in international markets, still domestic
market is its main market. Because of government regulations, rivalry is not
aggressive in domestic market, but real prices for various types of cars have
depreciated in recent years. Another problem this company encounters is the
instability of its market. Price fluctuations provide a good opportunity for
speculators to benefit from buying automobiles in low prices and selling
them in “higher” prices. On the other hand, presence of speculators in the
market aggravates the uncertainty because the manufacturer perceives a
demand different from the demand of end users and this leads to an
unbalanced demand-supply in market. In this paper we discuss how sales
policies of the company leads to above trends in prices and exacerbates its
financial problems. Using system dynamics modeling, we are going to
answer questions like: What has been the effect of different sales methods on
price fluctuations? And what is the effect of different sales methods in long
term?

Choice of utility functions in integrated assessment:
how subjective well-being can influence policy
analysis

To help inform public policy benefit-cost analysis, modelers calculate the

change in expected utility of a society. This utility calculation often is a
function of GDP per capita or economic consumption. Less widely used are

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 83

Parallel and Poster S

Douglas Franco

dfranco@ cantv.net

Econoinvest

Av Autocine

Res Pza Real Ap D32 La Boyera
Caracas 1083 Venezuela

Sheldon Friedman
sheldon.friedman@ comcast.net
35 Brightview Drive

West Hartford CT 06117
USA

Steven A. Cavaleri

cavaleri@ ccsu.edu

Central Connecticut State University
Management and Organization Dept
1615 Stanley Street RVAC 441

New Britain CT 06050

USA

Mike Raphael

Central Connecticut State University
Dept of Management & Organization
1615 Stanley Street

New Britain CT 06050

USA

84 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

subjective well-being utility functions that include relative consumption
levels as well as absolute levels of consumption. This paper explores how
utility function formulation can change the outcome of a benefit-cost
analysis. The choice of functional form is vital to realistically projecting the
utility impacts of a public policy and making the correct policy decision.
Using climate change policy as an example, the study shows that a simplified
subjective well-being utility function would encourage policy makers to
enact mitigation policy to prevent a large decrease in society’s long-term
utility, while a typical GDP/capita utility calculation would encourage
policymakers not to enact mitigation policy. This example highlights the
practical significance of choosing an appropriate utility measure. The study
concludes that the choice of utility function could change the results of cost-
benefit analyses and integrated assessment models.

Fifty Years of Table Functions

Table or lookup functions, TF, are part of System Dynamics models since the
very beginning fifty years ago. TF formulation, dynamics and
multidimensionality are analyzed and suggestions for their improvement are
presented. TF spread nonlinear dynamics to other variables involved and
simplify structure, allowing the ion on p R i
between nonlinear varying eigenvalues and TF” patterns are established,
which open the door for SD’ software improvements and further research. A
general shape, synthesizing typical TF’ patterns, plots a normal curve that the
Central Limit Theorem of statistics proves as the distribution of any
accumulation (level) of random variables. The random face of SD, uncovered
by Agent Base Simulation, converges into this normal curve, which gives
statistical grounds to lookup relationships and improves policy design by
fine-tuning estimation.

Individual Learning Style and Systems Tool
Preferences

Abstract: Research was carried out in order to determine if a relationship
existed between the use of specific system thinking tools and Kolb learning
styles. Subjects were university students who played the B & B Enterprise
game, took the Kolb Learning Styles Inventory and responded to a
questionnaire. These questions related to both the frequency and preferences
of use of specified system thinking tools and learning styles. The results
revealed that for some of the learning style orientations a significant
relationship with use and preferences of system thinking tools existed. These
results indicate that further study is needed to clarify any differences in
relationships between groups and between frequency and preferences. It is
thought that if a set of relationships can be identified, such knowledge could
facilitate the introduction of systems thinking and system dynamics to
selected groups within an organization. Keywords [Systems thinking, system
dynamics, Kolb Learning Styles].

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Margaret Fryling
mfryling@ uamail.albany.edu
University at Albany
MSC 100

1400 Washington Ave
Albany NY 12222

USA

Denis Garagic

denis@ icosystem.com
Icosystem Corporation

10 Fawcett Street
Cambridge MA 02138 USA

Tavor Trifonov

iavor@ icosystem.com
Icosystem Corporation

10 Fawcett Street
Cambridge MA 02138 USA

Paolo Gaudiano

paolo@ icosystem.com
Icosystem Corporation

10 Fawcett Street
Cambridge MA 02138 USA

The Dynamics of ERP Success

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) commercial software packages exploded
into the market during the 1990s as a popular way by which companies
attempted to integrate their financial, human resource, operation, and
customer information. Although ERP systems are capable of providing
significant returns on investment, they can also cause havoc in an
organization if not managed correctly. Research consistently reports that
implementation failure or success is people-related (Peterson, 2003; Tapp, et
al. 2003). It is often easier to blame the technology than to explore these
deeper complex issues but in the end they are the controlling factors. It is
important for managers to understand the non-technical dynamic
complexities if information system (IS) implementation success before
embarking on a new ERP project. The original IS Success Model (DeLone
and McLean, 2003) was developed prior to the enormous growth of ERP
implementations. It appears that current models do not include enough
feedback behavior between the constructs. Although the IS Success Model is
causal and does contain some feedback, there are additional causal
relationships not identified in the existing models that should be explored and
validated. This research will explore an extension of IS Success models using
system dynamics tools to explain ERP succe:

Agent-Based Modeling as a Tool for Manpower and
Personnel Management

This paper describes the develop ofa i t-based
simulation tool for modlings analysis and policy de- sign for complex.
or iors and i of NAVY &

Personnel (M&P) processes. Behavior of such a complex system is typically
associated with a hierarchical structure in which the lowest level agents are
characterized by continuous and discrete event-variable dynamics and the
highest level agents by a heuristic based decision-making mechanisms. The
interaction of these different levels, with their different types of information,
leads to the hybrid representation ot system behavioral dynamics by

and hodology (e.g.
system dynamics approach) on one hand and its dynamic simulation by
Agent-Based techniques on the other hand. The sys-tem dynamics approach
is used to develop a model that describes the dynamics of a sailor’s behavior
while he or she is enlisted with US Navy. Agent-based techniques are used to
handle heterogeneity in behaviors and domain descriptions asso-ciated with
Shipboard Manpower & Personnel Behaviors. Complex relationships
between individual sailor’s stress, motiva-tion and performance emerge from
model structure and interactions which allows us to perform analysis on two
levels: an aggregate level and one lower level on which individual sailors can
be dynamically modeled.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 85

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Rosanna Garcia
rgarcia@ neu.edu
Northeastern University
202 Hayden Hall
Boston MA 02115

A

Shayne Gary

sgary@ agsm.edu.au

Australian Graduate School of Mgmt
University of New South Wales
Sydney NSW 2052

Australia

Robert E. Wood
rwood@ agsm.edu.au

Co-opetition for the Diffusion of Resistant
Innovations: A Case Study in the Global Wine
Industry using an Agent-based Model
This study explores whether and how competitive cooperation, also known as

co-opetition, can be utilized to speed the rate of diffusion of resistant
innovations, which are defined as products that consumers are reluctant to

adopt. We i i a specific i ion, ps on fine wines, as a
case study. We explore the extent to which wineries embrace co-opetition
ies through a di marketing We model both

demand-side and supply-side diffusion within the context of a conjoint
simulation. In this ABM simulation, each agent is modeled as either a utility-
maximizing (consumers) or profit-maximizing (firms) agent. Both consumers
and firms interact, share information, and/or react to decisions by other
agents. The underlying data consist of international surveys of over 2,800
consumers, including conjoint analyses, in Australia, New Zealand, and the
US coupled with over 20 in-depth interviews of wine producers in the US. In
particular, we endow a sample of consumers with preferences based on the
conjoint analyses and allow them to interact with one another and with wine
producers. Wine producers are rational profit-maximizing agents who decide
whether or not to produce wines with Stelvins based on the amount they can
sell at (endogenously) chosen characteristics, price, and advertising levels.

Testing the Effects of a System Dynamics Decision
Aid on Mental Model Accuracy and Performance
on Dynamic Decision Making Tasks

Previous studies have suggested that decision aid support can positively
affect performance on dynamic decision making tasks. However, few studies
have examined the effects of decision aid support on the cognitive
mechanisms underpinning performance. This study tested the relationships
between decision aid support (in the form of causal loop diagrams), task
complexity, cognitive load, mental model accuracy and performance, using a
product lifecycle management simulation. Results indicate that task
complexity and decision aid support are significant predictors of mental
model accuracy, and that decision aid support moderates the relationship
between task complexity and mental model accuracy. In addition, task
complexity and mental model accuracy are significant predictors of
performance. Our findings regarding the beneficial impact of decision aid
support on mental model accuracy and on incremental gains in learning and
performance highlight the importance of understanding the underlying
cognitive mechanisms at work. Designing more effective decision aids to
enhance the development of accurate mental models is one path with a great
deal of potential to improve performance in dynamic decision making
environments.

86 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Shayne Gary

sgary@ agsm.edu.au

Australian Graduate School of Mgmt
University of New South Wales
Sydney NSW 2052 Australia

Martin H. Kune

martin.kunc@ uai.cl

Universidad Adolfo Ibaiiez

Carlos Silva Vildosola 9580 Casa L
786-0130 La Reina Santiago Chile

John D. W. Morecroft
jmorecroft@ london.edu
London Business School
Regent's Park

London NW1 4SA UK

Scott F. Rockart
srockart@ duke.edu

Duke University

Fuqua School of Business
Box 90120

Durham NC 27708 USA

Carmine Garzia
carmine.garzia@ lu.unisi.ch
University of Lugano
Via Giuseppe Buffi 13
CH-6904 Lugano
Switzerland

Fritz Gassmann
fritz. gassmann@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Institute
CH-5232 Villigen
Switzerland

System Dynamics and Strategy: Accomplishments
and Future Opportunities

Do the concepts, methods, and resulting insights that constitute the field of
system dynamics have much to offer for research in strategy? While we
believe the answer is yes, it is easy to conclude otherwise. Insights about
equilibrium conditions arising from economics and sociology serve as the
primary theoretical underpinnings for most researchers and teachers of
strategy. Unsurprisingly, therefore, formal models in strategy generally
derive equilibrium states based on the assumption that actors optimize under
various constraints and most empirical work in strategy looks for evidence of

ies affecting p equilibrium Over the last several
decades, strategy academics have produced and imported a huge stock of
such comparative-statics insights and evidence. This stock overshadows the
much smaller stock of research on dynamics and behavioural decision
making in the system dynamics tradition.

Untangling the Origins of Strategic Innovation. A
System Dynamics Approach

in strategic positioning enables to redefine the way to
do business delivering more value to customers and achieving superior
competitive performances. We present a System Dynamics simulation model
in which the firm’s ability to generate and implement innovation in strategic
positioning is determined by three factors. Firstly it is related to the ability to
govern the technical innovation process. Secondly strategic innovation
processes occur in firms characterised by a certain degree of entrepreneurial
orientation. Entrepreneurial orientation is deeply influenced by the
duction of ions that allow the release of the
ial energy eml in the or i structure. Thirdly,
technical innovations become strategic innovations only if top managers are
able to manage a process of integration through which they integrate new
technical initiatives into the company’s strategy. Simulations showed that the
effectiveness of is by top managers’ ability
to balance the ial orientation of middle-I with a
high degree of discipline. It is essential for top managers to control the
quality of innovations rather than to stimulate a relevant flow of innovations.
Only by controlling the quality at different stages and during the integration
phase can top managers assure a successful strategic renewal process.

Theory of Stable Dynamical Systems

During development of a dynamical model to simulate the central T-cell
subsystem of the human immune system, its extraordinary stability lead to
the assumption that it might be deduced solely from stability considerations.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 87

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Mathias Bosshardt
mathias.bosshardt@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Institut
OVGA 115

CH-5232 Villigen
Switzerland

Navid Ghaffarzadegan
navidg@ gmail.com

University at Albany

570-2A Western Avenue
Albany NY 12203 USA

Navid Ghaffarzadegan
navidg@ gmail.com

University at Albany

570-2A Western Avenue
Albany NY 12203 USA

Amir T. Tajrishi
amir_tajrishi@ yahoo.com
CIDCO

15 Ghobadyan St Vali Asr Ave
Tehran Iran

Niyousha Hosseinichimeh
niyoush@ gmail.com

University at Albany

570-2A Western Ave

Albany NY 12203 USA

Aref Gharakhani
aref.gharakhani@ gmail.com
Sharif University of Technology

Department of Computer Engineering

Azadi Ave
Tehran
Tran

88 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

We demonstrate that linear stability conditions together with additional
general requirements indeed define a low number (of the order of 10) of
dynamical systems from about 1.E10 possibilities for systems with up to four

dona
We expect that our ten dynamical subsystems are generic and will be found
as basic building blocks in biological, social or technical systems.

from evolutionary p es might be

How a System Backfires: From a Redundancy
Solution to Redundancy Problems in Security

Increasing attention is being paid to reliability, safety, and security issues in
social systems. Scott Sagan (2004) examined why more security forces (a
redundancy solution) may produce less security (redundancy problems). In
that paper, he discussed how the system could cause backfire in three major
ways (i.e. “common mode error”, “social shirking”, and
“overcompensation”). Using Sagan’s hypotheses, I simulate and analyze a
simplified and generic security system as more guards are added. Simulation
results support two of the hypotheses, showing “common mode error” makes.
the system backfire, and “social shirking” creates inefficiency in the system
as well as exacerbating the common mode error’s effect. Simulation results
show “overcompensation” has no effect on backfiring, but leads the system to
a critical situation, in which it could easily be affected by “common mode
error.” The structure of the model and simulation results give some insights
into developing appropriate security policies.

Economic Transition Management in Iranian
Cement Industry

Last decade, a lot of countries implemented a transition policy from centrally
planned d ies to market ies, while experiencing
different socio-economic side effects. After these years, it is still an important
issue in the countries which are not completely adjusted to market economy
style, to manage the transition process in order to experience less wild
fluctuations in prices. This paper represents recommended policies for
Iranian Cement Industry which will deal with economic transition in near
future. Using a System Dynamics approach, this paper gives some insights
into ing similar ic policy p

valuating Iran's Progress in the ICT Sector Using
the e-Readiness Index, a System Dynamics
Approach

In the modern era, the of it requires
improvement in other fields such as communication technologies,
of human business envi , legal

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Masoud Moshref
masood_mj@yahoo.co.uk

Sharif University of Technology
Computer Engineering Dept
Tehran

Tran

Daniel Goldsmith
goldsmith@ mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
50 Memorial Drive E53-323
Cambridge MA 02139 USA

Michael Siegel
msiegel@ mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School E53-323
Cambridge MA 02142
USA

Masanori Akiyama
poas@ mit.edu
MIT

Center for Digital Business NE20-336

Cambridge MA 02142
USA

Paulo Gongalves
paulog@ miami.edu

University of Miami

5250 University Drive KE 404
Coral Gables FL 33124

USA

and so on. Indicators that measure the growth of ICTs in different societies
have also pointed out this importance. National legislators are always seeking
means to improve ICTs and use them as an enabler of industry in their
countries. a number of developing countries have devoted a considerable
effort but have not achieved the results they were expecting. In recent years,
Iran, like many other of the developing countries, has made a desperate
attempt to get engaged in similar activities, but nothing in particular has been
achieved. In this paper, we will take a system dynamics approach to model
changes in the progress of information technology in Iran. Sources of many
of the problems showed up After the simulation of the model. We have also
outlined the policies required for reaching a steady growth in the future.

Improving Hospital Operations Using Bar-Code
Capture Data and System Dynamics Modeling
Techniques

To better understand the factors that support or inhibit process improvement
in a hospital setting, we conducted a study of one hospital’s attempt to
implement a health information system (HIS) to reduce errors in medical
treatment and manage material flows. We propose a dynamic model
capturing the evolution of the interactions among the “physics” underling
hospital operations, information technology (IT), and staff behavior. We
show that early success in one phase of process improvement can create
unintended feedback in a later phase. We use a system dynamics model to
examine losses in performance in these later phases. We then recommend
management improvements in both materials and staff utilization and
estimate the resultant cost-saving. As part of this analysis we explore
opportunities to merge real-time operational data with feedback modeling to
provide dynamic tools for hospital administration, risk management, and
education and training. We believe that the major gains in HIS use will
accompany new information gathering capabilities, as these capabilities
result in collections of data that can be used to greatly improve patient safety,
hospital operations, and medical decision support.

Returns in the Corn Supply Chain

Hybrid seed suppliers experience excessive and costly rates of seed returns
from dealers, who order in advance of grower demand realization and may
return unsold seeds at the end of the season. Here we develop a formal
dynamic model of the interaction of sales effort allocation and dealer
hoarding behavior leading to high corn seed returns through a model-based
field study. Sales representatives know they should carefully gather
information on grower demand for seed types and quantities to improve their
demand forecast (positioning effort). However, they abandon time-
consuming seed positioning late in the sales cycle to push out dealers’
inflated orders and quickly meet revenue quotas. Such push effort leads to
excessive returns in the next period, generating more inflated orders by
dealers and increasing the total sales that agents must achieve to meet their
quota, requiring them to push still more seed. While returns can have several
causes, this work describes how sales resource availability and biased sales
effort allocation can generate a self-perpetuating stream of returns.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 89

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Paraskevas Gravouniotis
p.gravouniotis@ imperial.ac.uk

Imperial College London

Centre for Energy Policy and Tech

Prince Consort Road RSM Bldg 4th Floor
London SW7 2BP

UK

Ausilio Bauen

a bauen@ imperial.ac.uk

Imperial College London

RSM Building Prince Consort Road
London SW7 2BP

UK

Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de

University of Berne

Interfacultary Ctr for General Ecology
Postbox 8573

3001 Berne Switzerland

90 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Energy equipment diffusion & touristic
competitiveness: Building an SD model for the
Greek islands

The real-world problem the research aims to address is the continuing highly
seasonal, exponential electricity demand growth in the Greek islands that are
unconnected to the national electricity grid over the past decades. This paper
presents only part of the on-going research. It specifically tests an early draft
of the sub-model concerned with the interplay of an island’s tourism volume
& attractiveness, local technological learning-by-using effects and the

ics of d \d-sid i diffusion. The general assumption is
that a tourist chooses a basket of services received at the place visited, one of
which is cooling comfort. C comfort to installed
cooling capacity and in effect uy consumption. This paper examines
the sub-model which, based on a figure of cooling comfort per person,
constructs an indicator of competitiveness to similar ions and relates
the flow of tourists to it. Similarly, a cost comparison incorporating a
learning curve between a conventional and an efficient variant of cooling
equipment drives the installation stocks at any time and effectively alters the
efficiency of the overall service across the island. The sub-model is run for a
number of structural and behavioural tests and also assessed for its potential
use in policy making.

The Structure and Dynamics of the Residential
Building: Which Mechanisms Determine the
Development of the Building Stock?

The residential building environment and the belonging values creation
network isting of several i p actors has not obtained much
attention from the field of science. Even though much litera-ture exists about
the diffusion of innovations (e.g., Rogers 1995), the diffusion process of
innovations in the residential building system is not fully understood. Hence,
the enormous potential to reduce CO2-emmsions can not be utilized. In
Switzerland, a research project tries to elaborate the different processes in the
building environment in order to provide policy interventions based on a
system dynamics model. Based on this research project, we present the
interconnections between the different actors in the system. Thereby, we
want to depict the inner life of each important actor group via a details
simulation model. In the current version of the paper, only some details about
the individual building owners can be provided. For the other actors,
empirical survey research is in the process of being executed, after the
completion of which dedicated models can be presented, different policies
tested and implications discussed.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de
University of Berne

Interfacultary Ctr for General Ecology

Postbox 8573
3001 Berne Switzerland

Suzanne Bruppacher
susanne.bruppacher@ ikaoe.unibe.ch
Universitat Bern

IKAOe

Schanzeneckstr 1 Postfach 8573
CH-3001 Bern Switzerland

Andreas GréBler

agroe@ gmx.de

Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Postbus 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen

The Netherlands

Alexander Zock
alexander.zock@ ecad-aviation.de

Decisions in the Construction Process of the
Residential Building Environment: Development of
a Static and Dynamic Model

The residential building environment accounts to a large extent for the

ission of greenhouse gases. In Switzerland, 27% of the carbon dioxide

ns are generated by heating houses and providing warm water and
electricity. The employment of existing state of the art energy efficient
technologies can reduce these emissions significantly. Why are the
technologies not applied on a regular basis? In this paper, we focus on the
decisions the individual building owner has to make during the house
planning process. The paper’s contribution is multifold: systematization of
important decisions during the planning process, development of a static
theory of decision making based on psychological action theories, enrichment
of the static theory by empirical research, and development of a dynamic
theory. From a superior content point of view, the paper sheds light on the
decisions during the building planning process. From a methodological
perspective, the paper adds to more traceability during the model
conceptualization phase. In other words, the art of modeling is partially
substituted by a rigorous, scientific research process. This paper is still under
development; especially the formulation of the system dynamics model and
the s! will be d ped further in following versions of
the paper.

Tell me ‘why’ or ‘how’ — A Heuristic to Choose
between Quantitative and Qualitative Systems
Analysis
The paper deals with one of the oldest and still most pressing issue in system
dynamics: “when to map and when to model”. We propose a heuristic to be

used in system dynamics projects to give an indication whether one should
aim at quantitative modeling (i.e., the classical system dynamics approach) or

European Ctr for Aviation L
Lise-Meitner-Strasse 10
62493 Darmstadt

Germany

whether quali will be sufficient: (1) If the problem definition
phrase starts with the word “why”, often causal explanations for the
development of variables should be the result of the project; in this case, the
ion of dynamic iour needs the i of
simulation models because of the difficulties people have with inferring
dynamics from complex models; (2) If the problem definition phrase starts
with the word “how”, the structure of a system is asked for; then, the result of
the project is usually a graphical representation of the shared understanding
of team members about the structure of a system, which can be achieved by
using quali delli iques like causal-loop diagram:
or policy structure diagrams.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 91

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Andreas GréBler

agroe@ gmx.de

Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Postbus 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands

Peter M. Milling

pmilling@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University

Schloss S 202 Industrieseminar
D-68131 Mannheim

Germany

Andreas Hadjis
ahadjis@ cycollege.ac.cy
Cyprus College

6 Diogenes St Engomi
1516 Nicosia

Cyprus

George Nathaniel Papageorgiou
gpapageo@ cycollege.ac.cy

Cyprus College

Dept of Management

6 Diogenes Str Engomi PO Box 22006
1516 Nicosia Cyprus

Tim Haslett
thaslett@ bigpond.netau
Monash University
1/164 Highett Street
Richmond 3121 Victoria
Australia

92 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Inductive and Deductive System Dynamics
Modeling

The paper presents and discusses the distinction between inductive and
deductive System Dynamics modeling. Findings are that the distinction
between inductive and deductive modeling is helpful in appropriately setting
up, conducting, and evaluating System Dynamics projects. The discussion is
based on a literature review, conceptual considerations, and the insights
gained from case studies, both within business and academia. Implications
are different processes, different potential outcomes, and different
possibilities for i ion for the two modeling app The value
of the paper lies in a new perspective on the most relevant question, why
some System Dynamics projects thrive while others fail.

Validation of System Dynamics Models: A Taguchi
Methods-based Approach

This paper presents the development of an effective and practical method to

the methodology for validating system d: ics models. The
method is based on an analogy drawn between the system dynamics model
development process and the quality design and manufacturing product
development process of an industrial context. Employing this metaphor the
revolutionary Taguchi principles of Robust Design can be utilized in the
validation process of system dynamics models. The proposed Taguchi-based
approach is applied and tested in case of a system dynamics corporate model.
The results show that with relatively few steps at the beginning of the
validation process and in the sub-category of reference behavior tests, the
modeler can significantly contribute to successfully reaching the desirable
state of “consensus validity of model use”, consistent with the
relativist/holistic philosophy of science.

From Hospital Plans to Computer Simulation: A
Case Study of the Alfred Centre.

This paper is a preliminary examination of findings that have arisen from a
System Dynamics model that has been derived from the initial plan for the
Alfred Centre. The Alfred Centre was designed as a stand-alone short stay
day procedural centre integrated within the Alfred, one of Melbourne’s major
hospitals. The model is a patient flow model that links the surgical
procedures, medical interventions, and endoscopy interventions to the
outpatient capacity.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Tone Haveland
tone haveland@ powersim.no
Powersim Software AS
PO Box 125 Nyborg
N-5871 Bergen

Norway

Steinar Moen
steinar.moen@ powersim.no
Powersim Software AS
Post-box 125

Nyborg 5871 Bergen
Norway

Arne Krakenes
Powersim Software AS
Postbox 125 Nyborg
5871 Bergen

Norway

Bjorn Storegjerde
bs@ powersim.no
Powersim Software AS
Post-box 125

Nyborg 5871 Bergen
Norway

Gerrit Heijkoop
g.heijkoop@ boercroon.nl

Delft University of Technology
Vaartstraat 64-111

1075 RS Amsterdam
Netherlands

Scott Cunningham

scotte@ thm.tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

Magdy Helal
mhelal@ mail.ucf.edu
University of Central Florida

Univ Analysis and Planning Support
12424 Research Parkway Suite 215

Orlando FL 32826 USA

Luis Rabelo
Irabelo@ mail.ucf.edu

Integrating Dynamic Simulation and Risk Analysis
in Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

This paper explains how risk analysis has been added to a Geographic
Information System (GIS) by integrating dynamic simulation models. The
GIS ication provides from an area in the map,
which is selected by the user, and retrieves the results of the simulation in
return. These dynamic results may be displayed on the map, possibly in
combination with relevant static information from other data sources
available to the GIS system, for instance, population density and area
development plans. The solution is a result of a commercial collaboration
between the two Norwegian software vendor companies, Norkart AS and
Powersim Software AS. Norkart is responsible for the GIS part of the
solution through their GIS application GIS/LINE. Powersim Software
provides the simulation capabilities through their simulation software Studio
7. Based on requests from Norkart’s customers for risk analyses, two models
were developed; 1. The first model simulates the movement of water through
soil to identify the risk of landslide. 2. The second model simulates the
diffusion and movement of poisonous gases, based on gas types, wind force
and wind direction. The solution can easily be extended to cover other
problem areas, like flooding and oil spill.

System Dynamics Modeling of Benefit Realization
When Adopting New Software

During the late to mid 1990s, many companies chose to implement Enterprise
Resource Planning (ERP) systems, often in the slipstream of the ‘information
revolution’ or as a ‘quick’ fix for the upcoming Y2K problem. A paradox
currently facing both business as scientific analysts is that, as the potential
benefits of these systems are almost self explicatory, only few seem to be
able to transform this potential into value. The combination of the rush into
complex technology and the large impact that ERP systems have on
organizations, provides a fertile soil for complicated problems. System
dynamics problems often deal with the interaction of technology and
organizations; embedding this project in the research context of system
dynamics makes a good fit.

A methodology for Integrating and Synchronizing
the System Dynamics and Discrete Event
Simulation Paradigms

With the adoption of integration and system perspectives in managing the
manufacturing systems and the pressure imposed by the increased
competition and rapidly changing business environment, the need has arisen
for new approaches for simulating the manufacturing enterprise. We have
proposed SDDES; a hybrid System Dynamics Discrete Event Simulation

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 93

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jose Sepulveda
sepulved@ mail.ucf.edu

Albert Jones
albert,jones@ nist.gov

Yufeng Ho

hyfarch@ ms32.hinet.net

Chaoyang University of Technology
PO Box 30-117

Taichung 407

Taiwan

Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting
3618 Avalon Court
Voorhees NJ 08043
USA

Gary B. Hirsch

gbhirsch@ comcast.net

Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road

Wayland MA 01778

USA

Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ cdc.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention

approach to simulating the ing enterprise. SDDES
offers ive si ion models that pass all
levels and recognize the differences between them in terms of scope and
frequency of decision making as well as the levels of details preferred and
used at each level. SDDES maintains the integrity of the two simulation
paradigms and can use existing/legacy simulation models without requiring
learning new simulation skills. In this paper we describe the modular
structure of SDDES, our method to synchronize and coordinate SD and DES,
and the functional model of the SDDES controller, which manages the

ion of the two si i hodol

Simulation and Analysis of Taichung Urban
Ecosystem

In Taichung there is considerable concern about urban problems, such as the
deterioration of living conditi ing and empty , the
congestion of traffic, the shortage of open space and | many other aspects of
the urban social, and Most of the existing
planning methods in this context addressed only one or two of the three
laa The purpose of this study is therefore to develop an integrated
for ishing an urban 1 system to maintain a

balanced relationship between human needs and urban ecology. A dynamic

ion model, ining urban ecological theory with the techniques of
system dynamic, is suggested so that the multiple objectives of urban
development can be pursued sustainably to achieve a better quality of life for
every citizen, now and for generation to come.

Chronic Illness in a Complex Health Economy: The
Perils and Promises of Downstream and Upstream
Reforms

Chronic illness is the largest cause of death and source of health care costs in
developed countries and has become a significant problem in developing
countries as well. This paper begins with a review of past work in System
Dynamics concerning populations with chronic illness. It then presents a
generic model of illness in a population and its and p
applied to the U.S. population, The model explains the rising prevalence ‘of
illness as well as responses to it, responses which include the treatment of
complications as well as disease management activities designed to reduce
the occurrence of future complications. The model shows how progress in

e and disease has slowed since 1980 in

360 Brooks Avenue NE the U.S., largely due to a behavioral tug-of-war between health care payers

Atlanta GA 30307 and providers that has resulted in price inflation and an unstable climate for

USA health care investments. The model is also used to demonstrate the impact of
moving “upstream” by managing known risk factors to prevent illness onset,
and moving even further upstream by addressing adverse behaviors and
living conditions linked to the of these risk factors in the first
place.

94 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Peter S. Hovmand

phovmand@ wustl.edu

Washington University in St Louis
Brown School of Social Work

One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
Saint Louis MO 63130

USA

David N. Ford

davidford@ tamu.edu

Texas A&M University

Dept Civil Engineering Mailstop 3136
College Station TX 77843-3136

USA

Stavroula Kyriakakis

Washington University in St Louis
Brown School of Social Work

One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
St Louis MO 63130

USA

Ingrid Flom

Washington University in St Louis
Brown School of Social Work

One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
St Louis MO 63130

USA

Peter S. Hoymand

phovmand@ wustl.edu

Washington University in St Louis
Brown School of Social Work

One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
Saint Louis MO 63130 USA

David F. Gillespie

davidfg@ fidnet.com

Washington University in St Louis
320 Heatherly Lane

New Haven MO 63068

USA

Women Arrested for Domestic Violence:
Unintended Consequences of Pro and Mandatory
Arrest Policies

Domestic violence is a major social problem worldwide. In the United States,
the failure of communities and police departments to intervene resulted in a
push to adopt and implement pro and mandatory arrest policies for domestic
violence. These policies have led to an unexpected increase in the number of
arrests of women. Competing explanations have been offered. This paper
describes the development of a system dynamics model of women arrested
for domestic violence. Results suggest that these policies may have created or

da cross hanism that shifts the risk of arrests in domestic
violence cases from men to women. Model analysis demonstrates how the
changing role of cooperation between advocates and police can help explain
the trends in women arrests. Implications for research and policy are
discussed.

Dynamics of Innovation Implementation and
Organizational Performance in Mental Health
Services

While organizational variables play an important role in the adoption and
implementation of evidence based practices in mental health, most
researchers have assumed that i ion leads to improving
organizational performance. Yet existing organizational theory suggests that

ion differs by izati characteristics, and certain
configurations can lower organizational performance. This paper shows how
implementation of evidence based practice impacts organizational
performance. Specifically, we present a system dynamics simulation model
of implementation and organizational performance based on existing theory,
system dynamics research, and key informant interviews. By varying
organizational characteristics we learn how implementation affects
organizational performance, and then explain these effects through
subsequent behavioral analysis. These analyses lead to a simplification of the
theory and model. The theory implies that benefits from evidence-based
practice depend on how fast managers can implement the innovation relative
to the quality improvement process.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 95

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Susan Howick

susan howick@ strath.ac.uk

University of Strathclyde
Department of Management Science
40 George Street

Glasgow G1 1QE UK

Jason Whalley
jason.whalley@ strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Dept of Management Science
40 George Street

Glasgow G1 1QE UK

Qian Hu

qhu001@ webmail.uib.no
University of Bergen
Fantoft Studentboliger
Postboks 473

5075 Bergen Norway

Lizhen Huang
Thu062@ webmail. uib.no
Fuzhou University
Faculty of Management
35002 Fujian

China

Broadband adoption: the case of rural and remote
Scotland

Broadband has been described as a transforming technology and is now
widely available in many developed countries. However, broadband
availability is not the same as broadband adoption. If the socio-economic
benefits of broadband are to be realised, then adoption needs to be both
understood and encouraged. This is particularly important in rural and remote
areas. This paper explores the factors that drive broadband adoption in one
particular tural and Temote area; rural and remote Scotland. A causal model
anda ion model are ing how the various
drivers of adoption interact with one another. Both models show that past
policy initiatives have impacted on the rate of adoption. However, the
greatest impact could be achieved if future policy initiatives target those
people who show no interest in adopting broadband. The paper concludes by
suggesting that this work has implications for rural and remote areas all
around the world.

An experimental study on the construction of
electricity power stations in China

The history of electricity industry in China can be generalized as cycles of
electricity shortage and surplus. It’s widely believed that lack of accurate
information about future electricity demand is the main cause to this
problematic phenomenon. However, there are still few people who believe
long time of power station construction so that the investors ignore the
stations under construction is the main effect, rather than the information
about electricity demand. In this paper, an experiment is carried out to test
whether these hypotheses are right or not. Factorial designs with 2
treatments, information about stations under construction and information of
future electricity demand, are used to test which of these two factors is the
main effect. Statistical analysis indicates that awareness of how many
stations are under construction will greatly improve the performance of
subjects, while information about the future electricity demand, although
assumed accurate, has no significant effect on the performance of the
subjects.

The bullwhip effect in the closed loop supply chain

A simple system ics model of a traditional/closed loop supply chain
system is investigated. Particularly, the effect of remanufacture,
remanufacturing lead-time and the return rate on the inventory variance and
bullwhip effect were studied. Our results clearly showed that the bullwhip in
the closed loop supply chain is bigger than one in the traditional supply chain
and foreign to the collection rate, and the inventory variance in every stage
decrease when the fi is introduced into the tradi 1 supply
chain. Furthermore, we found that the bullwhip effect in the closed loop

96 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Firat Incioglu
firat.incioglu@ gmx.net
Bogazici University

Saral Sitesi D Blok 19
Gayrettepe Istanbul 34349
Turkey

Moosung Jae

jae@ hanyang.ac.kr
Hanyang University
Dept of Nuclear Eng

17 Haengdang Sungdong
Seoul 133-791 Korea

supply chain will increase when the short term lead time of remanufacture
cycle time increase and is independent of the long term lead time of
remanufacture, and inventory variance will increase in first two stages but
will decrease for the producer stage.

A Dynamic Simulation Model for Long-Term
Hypertension Progression

Dynamics of blood pressure over the life span of a human being demonstrates
a growth path. The most significant theories which try to explain dynamics of
blood pressure adopt a kidney-dep approach. I red in
the size of renal arterioles (vascular remodeling) and loss of nephrons are
considered to be primarily responsible for the progressive increase in blood
pressure. A dynamic simulation model is constructed to realistically
reproduce the long-term progression of blood pressure in healthy and in
hypertensive people. It focuses on systemic interactions that result in vascular
remodeling of renal arterioles and in loss of nephrons. These hypertensive
mechanisms are integrated with fluid volume and blood pressure control
mechanisms which are aimed to achieve homeostatis. This study suggests
that progression of blood pressure can suitably be modeled by
conceptualizing the problem as a long-term control of fluid excretion
capacity. The reference behaviors for normal and hypertensive people
underline alternative pathways in blood pressure progression. Experiments
with the model demonstrate that management of the number of remodeled
arterioles over time should be an essential task in long-term blood pressure
progression control. Scenario runs with the simulation model help distinguish
successful policies from the ineffective interventions.

Development of radiation risk assessment simulator
using system dynamics

The potential magnitude of radionuclide releases under severe accident
loadings and offsite consequences as well as the overall risk are calculated.
System dynamics methodology useful for complex systems such as a nuclear
power plant has been applied for representing the time-dependent and
uncertain behavior of complex physical system. Dynamic variation of
radioactivities were simulated by considering several effects such as
deposition, weathering, washout, resuspension, root uptake, translocation,
leaching, senescence, intake and excretion of soil by animals, intake and
excretion of feedstuffs by animals. The input data to the model include the
time of the year when the deposition occurs. The ti p

i ical model has been ped in order to assess the radiological
consequences following the short-term deposition of radionuclides during
severe accidents nuclear power plant. The ingestion food model may be run
deterministically to yield single estimates or stochastically to provide
distributional output that reflects uncertainty of parameter and model
uncertainties. The values of the input parameters to the dynamic ingestion
pathway model were selected to represent the site-specific The results of this
study may contribute to identifying the relative importance of various

occurred in y analysis, as well as to assessing risk

reduction and accident management strategies.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 97

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jason Jay

jiay@ mit.edu

MIT

50 Memorial Drive E52-509
Cambridge MA 02142
USA

George Roth

groth@ mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
77 Vasser St Bldg 41 Rm 205
Cambridge MA 02139

USA

Jianguo Jia
jiajianguo@ yahoo.com
Tongji University

Room 401 Building 43
Guoquan Road 99
Shanghai 200433 PR China

Yu Lu

ly-papers@ 163.com

Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital
401 Room 43 Building

99 Guoquan Road

Shanghai 200433 China

Jianguo Jia
jiajianguo@ yahoo.com
Tongji University

Room 401 Building 43
Guoquan Road 99
Shanghai 200433 PR China

98 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

From Continuous Improvement to Centralized
Information: The Life and Times of a Systems
Thinking Intervention

This mixed-method P case study ines the i ion of
a systems thinking intervention - The Manufacturing Game™ ~ as part of a
comprehensive approach to “Proactive Manufacturing” and workforce
involvement in continuous improvement at an American oil refinery. Notable
gains in local reliability metrics such as Mean Time Between Failure were
achieved as a result of these efforts, which contributed to financial, safety,
and environmental performance. At the same time, the overall impact of the
program on the refinery’s performance is ambiguous, confounded by
simultaneous investments in the physical capital and capacity of the plant that

significant value. This ity created interpretive flexibility for
employees of the plant, who were able to both interpret and shape the
continuous improvement activities based on prior political divisions, mental
models, and interpretive biases. A structurational perspective is employed to
understand these emergent and unintended consequences. From this
perspective, a speculative model of relational conflict that undermines
workforce participation in i imp is ps

System Dynamics Modeling for Overtime
Management Strategy of Software Project

Schedule overrun is a major problem that disturbed software project team.
How to solve this problem? For most software project managers, the first
reaction is to work overtime. There is no doubt overtime can alleviate this
problem to some extend, but is it an effective way all the time? If not, when
shall we give up overtime and change to other ways? This paper analyzed
those problems in detail and gave some conclusions in the end. That is for a
software project team which has reached its overtime limit, further overtime
can only result in much longer completion date. Thus the best overtime
policy is to first set a proper scheduled completion date, then try to find the
minimums project completion time. The overtime range related to this
minimums project completion time will be the critical point to stop further
overtime.

System Dynamics Modeling for Medicine Price
Policy in China
There is a strange phenomenon in medicine market of china: abuse of a lot of

expensive medicine such as antibiotic, while the low price medicine
disappearing in market, and the medicine price is going higher and higher to

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jianxun Chu

chujx@ uste.edu.cn

Univ of Science & Technology of China
Dept of Sci-Tech Policy

96 Jinzhai Road Hefei

Anhui 230026 PR China

Yu Lu

ly-papers@ 163.com

Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital
401 Room 43 Building

99 Guoquan Road

Shanghai 200433 China

Renan Jia

jxjxj2005@ 163.com

Nanchang University

Mgt Science and Engineering Dept
235 East Nanjing Road

330047 Nanchang Jiangxi China

Cuixia Wang

newangcx@ sina.com

Jiangxi Univ of Finance & Economics
School of Information Technology
Fenglin Road

Nanchang Jiangxi 330013 China

Xiaojing Jia

jx_jx1@ 163.com

Central University of Finance and Econ
MBA Education Center

39 Xueyuan South Road

100081 Haidian District Beijing China

Nitin R. Joglekar
joglekar@ bu.edu

Boston University

School of Management

595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston MA 02215 USA

Paulo S. Figueiredo

paulof@ bu.edu

Boston University

School of Mgt Operations Mgt Dept
595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston MA 02215 USA

pay for by patient. This is indeed a disaster in health care system of China. In
this paper, we set up a system dynamics model to demonstrate the deep
mechanism: this is mainly due to medicine price policy; afterwards, a serials
policy is proposed to handle this disaster.

A system dynamics analysis of intensive pig farming
eco-energy system based on the rate variable
fundamental in-tree model

Intensive pig farming in Centre China leads to the centralization of excreta
.Chinese government has allocated lots of funds to construct biogas
engineering for resource utilization of bio-energy in recent years. But
investigation shows most of farms in rural areas discharge the residual
product of anaerobic digestion directly due to the lack of consumers and
funds, which has caused severe environmental pollution, and also endangered
the development of farms themselves. In this paper, we have constructed a
practical pig farming excreta recycle treatment model via a case study of the
Lanpo intensive pig farming ecology system, and have conducted simulations
with the corresponding dominant archetype. The results show that policies of
encouraging more farmers to utilize biofuel, separating anaerobic digester
effluent from irrigating water, developing the winter fallow cropland and the
hilly land and governments’ fund and technology supporting may help shift
the system toward sustainability.

Dynamics of Project Screening in a Product
Development Pipeline

of a product d pipeline involves starting and
steering several promising projects through a sequence of screens known as
stages/gates. Only projects with payoffs above a predetermined threshold
survive each screen. We model a two-stage product development pipeline as
an aging chain with a co-flow. The co-flow structure tracks the number of
projects and the corresponding net present value (NPV) of payoff. Managers
at each stage must decide on capacity utilization, subject to a trade-off
between throughput and value creation rate. Our simulation study mimics a
range of relevant decision scenarios by varying the number of starts, screen
thresholds, and managerial biases while adjusting utilization. Results
illustrate that screening can eliminate the backlog bullwhip effect in the
pipeline. Allied statistical analysis indicates a non-linear relationship between
the number of starts and the value created at end of the pipeline. An increase
in the screening threshold, in either stage, increases the average value of the

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 99

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Klaus John

kd@ john-weltner.de

Chemnitz University of Technology
Reichenhainerstr 39

09107 Chemnitz

Germany

Andrew P. Jones
apjones@ sustainer.org
Sustainability Institute

8 Lynmar Avenue
Asheville NC 28804 USA

Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting

3618 Avalon Court
Voorhees NJ 08043 USA

Joyce Essien

jessien@ sph.emory.edu

Emory University

Rollins School of Public Health
1518 Clifton Road NE

Atlanta GA 30322 USA

Bobby Milstein

bmilstein@ cde.gov

Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
360 Brooks Avenue NE

Atlanta GA 30307 USA

Charles A. Jones
skuk_jones@ yahoo.com

University of Massachusetts Boston
63 Eastland Road

Jamaica Plain MA 02130

USA

100 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

projects but reduces the total value created. We also show that a managerial
bias towards reducing backlog, instead of improving utilization, affects the
average NPV negatively but does not affect the total value created at the end
of the pipeline.

The Ec ics of Bi to-Liquids Fuels

To combat the climate change and for reasons of the security of supply the
European Union and its member states have adopted a strategy to increase the
use of energy from renewable resources until 2020 and beyond. One long run
sub-target of this strategy is to increase the proportion of renewable energy
for fuelling purposes to 20 percent. It is hardly possible to reach this
ambitious objective by using current technology of bio-fuel production. The
paper discusses alternative forms of fuels from renewable energy sources.
This discussion identifies biomass-to-liquid (BtL) fuels as the most

romising way to accomplish the EU target. The evaluation of the future role
of BtL is difficult due to complex and uncertain interdependencies between
several factors of influence. The paper develops the basic structure of a SD-
model to capture the numerous effects and their dynamic feedbacks.

Moving from Insights to Action with the CDC
Diabetes System Model

Since 2003, the Division of Diabetes Translation of the US Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has provided ongoing support for an
SD model that addresses how best to balance interventions to reduce the
present and future health burden of diabetes. The structure and behavior of
this model have evolved, but its results and insights have not changed
fundamentally since we first reported on the model three years ago at ISDC
2004. Yet, considerable effort has gone into various activities these past three
years that are gradually widening the model’s circle of impact. These
activities include trimming model scope, challenging and helping to revise a
key national objective, facing our model critics, doing more extensive
sensitivity tests, conducting an external model review, training model
communicators, calibrating the model for various states within the US, and
piloting model-based learning laboratories. In this poster, we will describe
these activities and reflect on how and why they have (or, perhaps, in some
cases have not) helped move decision-makers toward tangible actions based
on model insights. We will also reflect on how our experiences may inform
other efforts to move from insights to action in the arena of public health,
where the gap between science and policy is often a challenging one to cross.

Mental Models in an Emerging Industry: The
Photovoltaic Industry in Massachusetts

This paper reports on an ongoing model-based field study attempting to
answer the following research questions: What are the mental models of
participants in the photovoltaic industry? How widely are mental models
shared among participants? The mental models of system participants are
important because participants are the people with the greatest knowledge

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jan Juerging

juerging@ is bw.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar

Schloss Siidfliigel $ 202
68131 Mannheim Germany

Martin Kaggwa

mkaggwa@ aide.co.za

Automotive Industry Development Centre
Private Bag X36

0200 Rosslyn

South Africa

Jasper Steyn
jsteyn@ postino.up.ac.za
University of Pretoria

Anastassios Pouris
anastassios.pouris@ up.ac.za
University of Pretoria

R. Divakar Roy Kakollu
krdroy@ hotmail.com

Andhra University

Dept of Mechanical Engineering
Visakhapatnam 530003 AP

India

about the system, because in any policy solution they are the critical actors,
and because it is their decisions and actions from which the behavior of the
system emerges. Fifteen experts have so far been interviewed. The

ki they d was expressed as a set system d models;
these models were characterized and compared. The informants all expressed
dynamic growth as a result of reinforcing feedback processes, but few
perceived of any balancing feedback. Their beliefs indicate successful
policies will have to recognize the difference between global and local
market effects

Engineering Change Orders influencing
manufacturing start-ups

Many companies, especially in high tech industries, are facing shrinking
product life s and i i complex p and product

hi ies. These market ics pressure f facilities to begin
full scale operations at a point when the underlying process technology is still
poorly d.C ies suffer from substantial yield
losses which can dramatically affect the economics of the product, the
production facility, and business. The production ramp-up will be defined as
the time span equal to the difference between ‘time- to- market’ and’ time-
to- volume’. A major goal of innovators is to reduce the ‘time-to-market’,
however they cannot evaluate the effects on the ‘time-to-volume’ When
production is started at a point of low series production readiness a lot of
engineering changes are likely to be detected during the ramp-up phase. This
paper will compare two policies for the management of changes during
production ramp-up.

Formalisation of the South African Automotive
Incentives Using a System Dynamics Approach

We present the formalisation of the South African fiscal automotive
incentives — the Productive Asset Allowance (PAA) and the Import-Export
Complementation (IEC). We estimate model rates of change using 10 year
historical data. Model simulations reveal that while the IEC has a significant
effect on industry trade balance, the role of the PAA is trivial. Further still,
the IEC incentive cannot be maintained in its current form in the long term as
the value of imports it enables to enter the country free of duty tend to total
domestic market size.

Modelling and Analysis of Production System of A
Steel Plant- A System Dynamics Approach

Modeling and Analysis of Production System of A Steel Plant- A System
Dynamics Approach K.R.Divakar Roy Department of Mechanical
Engineering, A.U.College of Engineering (Autonomous) Visakapatnam-530
003 Mail Id: divakarroy@rediff.com, krdi il.com Abstract In the
fast changing economic scenario world over, the economic strength of any

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 101

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Christian Erik Kampmann
cekivs@ chs.dk

Copenhagen Business School

IVS Kilevej14A-B

DK-2000 Frederiksberg

Denmark

Rogelio Oliva

roliva@ tamu.edu

Texas A&M University

Mays Business School

301F Wehner 4217 TAMU.
College Station TX 77843-4217
USA

Kyungmin Kang
kyungmin7@ gmail.com

Hanyang University

17 Haengdang-dong Seongdong-gu
Seoul 133-791

Korea

Moosung Jae

jae@ hanyang.ac.kr
Hanyang University
Dept of Nuclear Eng

17 Haengdang Sungdong
Seoul 133-791 Korea

102 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

company depends on the management’s ability in improving quality, cutting
production costs and providing better customer services to compete
effectively in the global market. Even though every management aims at
improving the productivity, there is a limitation on the part of various
production facilities located in any plant as they cannot be stretched beyond a
point. However, management can exploit the existing facilities to the
maximum extent possible by introducing the latest state of art technology.
Against this backdrop, present production scenario of a local integrated steel
plant is described. The key variables considered for the simulation of steel
plant prod activities are: p of hot metal, liquid steel, prime
blooms, bar mill products and wire rod products over a period of 20 years
from 1994 to2013. The results obtained from the SD modeling are validated.
Further, the model is utilized to explore alternative policies, which have been
compared for their relative effectiveness.

Analytical methods for structural dominance
analysis in system dynamics: An assessment of the
current state of affairs

We provide a review of different approaches to linking model structure to
observed behavior with a particular view towards using models for theory
building. We identify four such approaches, namely the “classical” approach,
the “pathway participation” approach, the “eigenvalue elasticity” approach,
and the “eigenvector” approach, respectively. We outline our assessment of
the strengths and weaknesses of each approach and point to some main
challenges and tasks ahead. We find that the eigenvalue and eigenvector
approaches carry the largest potential but that a more solid theoretical
foundation of the method is required. Once such a foundation is developed, it
will be important to develop intuitive analytical tools that can be of use to a
wider system dynamics audience. Since a “grand unified theory” will never
be possible, all tools will be based on approximations and it is only in their
practical use that we can discover their real value.

Development of radiation risk assessment simulator
using system dynamics methodology

The potential magnitude of radionuclide releases under severe accident
loadings and offsite consequences as well as the overall risk (the product of
accident fr and ) are in this paper. System
dynamics methodology useful for complex systems such as a nuclear power
plant has been applied for representing the time-dependent behavior
(feedback and dependency, etc) and uncertain behavior of complex physical
system. System dynamic model is used to construct the transfer mechanism
of time dep ion. The ti

1 model to Korean has been Pp
in order to assess the radiological consequences following the short-term

d ition of radi ides during severe accidents nuclear power plant. The
results of this study may contribute to identifying the relative importance of
various occurred in analysis, as well as to assessing
risk ion and accident i

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Florian Kapmeier
florian.kapmeier@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
Eschersheimer Landstrasse 223
60320 Frankfurt

Germany

Martin C. Schmalz
martin_schmalz1984@ yahoo.de
Universitat Stuttgart
Allmandring 10A Zi 27
70569 Stuttgart

Germany

Theodor Ackbarow
ackbarow@ mit.edu

MIT

121 Carlton Street
Brookline MA 02446
USA

Evangelos Katsamakas
katsamakas@ fordham.edu

Fordham University

Graduate School of Business

113 West 60th Street GBA 6th floor
New York NY 10023

USA

Nicholas C. Georgantzas
georgantzas@ fordham.edu

Fordham University Business Schools
113 W 60th Street Suite LL 617-D
New York NY 10023-7484

USA

Andjelka Kelic

sly@ mitedu

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1137
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA

Elissa Matthews

epmatthews@ alcatel-lucent.com
Bell Laboratories Alcatel-Lucent
Holmdel NJ 07733

USA

Walt Beyeler

webeyel@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800

Albuquerque NM 87185-0451
USA

Happiness - Cracking the Equilibrium State of
People's Well-Being

Ui the isms producing | is not only crucial for
individuals and psychological research but also for management science and
political economy. In this paper, we develop a System Dynamics model to
analyze mechanism creating happiness. It allows a better understanding of
the formerly vaguely proposed connections between external life events and
individual well-being. We propose that it can make a qualitative estimation of
a person's happiness over time as a function of external events. It is widely
accepted in positive psychology that good and bad events temporarily affect
happiness. Yet, individuals quickly adapt back to hedonic neutrality. This is
known as the hedonic treadmill (Brickman and Campbell, 1971), the dynamic
equilibrium theory, or set point theory (Headey, 2005). We model a hedonic
treadmill by assuming that people's expectations and aspiration levels adapt
to the actual stock levels of happiness drivers, such as income, health, and
social networks. Policy i learn how well-intended policies to
increase happiness only succeed short-term.

Open source software development: A systems
dynamics model

Evidence suggests that only a small percentage of open source development
(OSSD) projects are active, have significant participation, or have delivered
operational software. We develop a system dynamics based simulation model
to analyze the dynamics of open source project participation process and
software development process. We show that the complex interaction
between participation and development processes affects crucially success or
failure.

Telecommunications Operations Resiliency: Labor
Shortages and the Voice Network

Models of the voice telecommunications infrastructure have focused on the
availability of the network during a disruption without accounting for the
workforce necessary to provide repair and recovery functions for that
network. This paper describes a system dynamics model of the maintenance
operations of the voice telecommunications infrastructure and explores the
effects of large and prolonged worker absence on the ability to keep the
infrastructure operating. Analysis shows that the voice telecommunications
infrastructure is highly resilient to the loss of a large portion of its workforce.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 103

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Saul Kidde

saulkidde@ yahoo.com
Makerere University

Faculty of Computing and IT
PO Box 7062

Kampala Uganda

Ddembe W. Williams

d.williams@ cit.mak.ac.ug

Makerere University

Faculty of Computing & Information Tec
PO Box 7062

Kampala Uganda

Hyunjung Kim

hk8459@ albany.edu

University at Albany

11 South Lake Avenue Apt 110
Albany NY 12203

USA

Hyun-Shil Kim
kimhs@ kepri.re.kr
KEPRI

Yuseong-ku

Daejeon

Korea

104 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Mapping Standard HIV Disease Surrogate Markers
to Alternatives ones: A System Dynamics Approach

Use of systems d hodology in ing HIV/AIDS disease
progression is not very new, however use of a triangulation of methodologies
in form of the Dynamic Synthesis Methodology (DSM) to model the
relationship between surrogate markers for monitoring HIV/AIDS disease
progression is entirely new. A triangulation of methodologies called DSM
combining System Dynamics and Case study methodologies was used to
establish the relationships of HIV/AIDS surrogate markers so as to arrive at
an appropriate model for monitoring the HIV/AIDS disease progression for a
resource limited setting. The problem was initially analysed in its natural
form to arrive at appropriate reference modes followed by simulation
experiments that were used to map values of Plasma CD4 cell count onto
those of Total Lympl count and Hi lobin, and HIV viral load onto
CD8CD38 density representing the same disease state. The paper makes
useful contributions in revealing salient insights that can be used to develop
tools using alternative HIV/AIDS surrogate markers for cheaply monitoring
HIV/AIDS disease progression in a resource limited setting.

In Search of a Mental-Model-Like Concept for
Group Level Modeling

In system dynamics, we use the term “mental model” to describe one’s
perceived structure of system. We care about mental model, because it is
what we attempt to describe, understand, and improve using computer
simulation models. But if we are developing our simulation models from a
group of individuals, can we still call what we are trying to study a mental
model? This paper attempts to define the concept parallel to mental model
that can be applied to group environment. In order to discover a group-level
mental-model-like concept that is grounded in the established literature, this
study surveys various terminologies and definitions used in the literature to
describe the similar concepts. The survey reveals that there are subtle
differences among the concepts discussed, and the conceptual differences are
highlighted by using location and form of the processor as criteria. This
finding leads to an insight that what system dynamics modelers try to
understand, represent, and improve in group intervention processes is not one
single concept. Depending on data collection and integration methods, the
concept can vary in terms of location and form.

The Effects of the New Capacity Investment
Behavior in the Korea Wholesale Electricity
Market
Generation facilities in Korea have been allocated to six firms as a part of

‘ing and there is a petitive bidding in the wholesale market,
albeit strictly on a cost basis. And Korean government has developed "Basic

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Namsung Ahn

nsahn@ kepri.re.kr

Korea Electric Power Research Inst
106-16 Munji-Dong Yusung-Gu
305-380 Dae Jeon City

Korea

Jaekook Yu

yujk72@ naver.com

Systemix Co Ltd

915 Character Green Vill

395-73 Sindaebang-dong Dongjak-Gu
156-010 Seoul Korea

Yong-Beum Yoon
ybyoon@ kepri.re.kr
KEPRI

Daejeon

Korea

Sang-Joon Kim
skgkrtod@ freechal.com
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
30 Elbride St Apt 2

Worcester MA 10609

USA

Mirjana Kljajic Borstnar
mirjana kjajic@ fov.uni-mb si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a

4000 Kranj

Slovenia

Plan of Long Term Electricity Supply & Demand" in order to secure resource
adequacy. Addition of new generation capacities has controlled by this plan.
However, if the restructuring will be plete done, i i
have no obligation to invest if their profitability is not guaranteed. Many
experts are arguing that government intervention is still necessary to avoid
the price spike in the wholesale market. In this study, simulations for two
scenarios were conducted to see whether competition market can help to
stabilize the wholesale price in Korean market. The simulation results show
that government intervention can prevent the price spike. However, the
wholesale price in the competition market turns out to be lower than that in
the regulated market due to the more new investment. However, this model
has many limitations. First of all, this model assumed that only gas power
plants can respond the market price.

When Cognitive Institution Collapses: A Case of
“Master Kim” through a System Dynamics Model
on the Action-Driven Process

This study illustrates how minor social norms, which have even negative
meaning in organizations, might be able to be dominant by the action-driven
sensemaking process. Based on the Weick(1995)’s argument of the action-
driven sensemaking process, a system dynamics model is constructed. To
examine the properties of the sensemaking process, the system dynamics
model built is applied to the case of a Korean maverick named “Master Kim”
on cyber pornography. The analytical application shows that the strange
epiphany involved in the case of Master Kim can be explained by the
dynamic relationship between dominant social norms and deviate social
norms. It means that norms, beliefs, and traditions can be collapsed by other
cognitive institutions through as social interactions, such as the action-driven
sensemaking process, particularly exchanging feedback comments on the hot
issues on internet. Moreover, we have to notice that the evolution of
cognitive institution could not be emerged unless the formal institution which
facilitates the sensemaking process, such as the service of news comments on
internet were established. Therefore, this study can be furthered in
investigating not only practical implications to strategically make desired
breakthroughs in our organizations, but also theoretical insights in the
perspective of new institutionalism.

A Model of Group Learning Supported by
Simulation Experiment

This paper addresses the influence of individual and group information
feedback on a decision process supported by the application of system
dynamics model. For this purpose we have conducted the four-group

Solomon experiment under following conditions: al) determination of

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 105

Parallel and Poster S

Miroljub Kljajié
miroljub.kijajic@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a

SI-4000 Kranj

Slovenia

Andrej Skraba
andrej.skraba@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor
Kidriceva Cesta 34
SI-4000 Kranj

Slovenia

Davorin Kofjac
davorin.kofjac@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Science
Kidriceva 55a

4000 Kranj

Slovenia

Andrey I. Koblov
akoblov@ suct.ru

South-Ural State University
Applied Mathematics Dept
Lenina avenue 76
Chelyabinsk 454080
Russia

Vladimir I. Shiryaev
vis@ suctru
Uralsviazinform
Moskovskaya Street 11
620014 Ekaterinburg
Russia

Rudolf Kulhavy

kulhavy@ utia.cas.cz

Academy of Sciences of the Czech Rep
Inst of Info Theory and Automation
Pod vodarenskou vezi 4

18200 Prague Czech Republic

106 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

strategy with application of the system dynamics (SD) model without group
interaction with pretest, a2) determination of strategy with application of the
SD model and group information feedback with pretest, a3) determination of
strategy with application of SD model without pretest, and a4) strategy
determination with application of SD model and group information feedback
without pretest. The observed variables were the criteria function values and
frequency of si ion runs. The hypothesis that si ion model
application and group feedback information positively influence the
convergence of the decision process and contribute to faster decision-making
was confirmed. A model of learning during the decision-making process was
developed.

Firm Behavior Optimal Control on Mobile Service
Market

Paper present a system dynamics approach for modeling mobile service

petitive market and fc ing market di . The model includes
dynamic competition between operators. Pricing policy, service quality,
subscriber base, potential subscribers, marketing, etc influence their number
of subscribers. The task of defining the market share carrying capacity to
forecast sales is described. The method for the saturation level identification
is considered and the optimal control problem is formulated and solved.
Actual data from several regions of Russia are used in this paper.

Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic System Dynamics

The paper deals with the system dynamics modeling of a stochastic behavior.
The starting point is replacing the traditional system dynamics model with a
discrete-time stochastic dynamic model in which state variables are measured
indirectly, through noisy and incomplete measurements. The state variables
and possible unknown parameters in such a model can be systematically
estimated from the available measurements using the Bayesian paradigm.
Closed-form solutions exist only for few special cases, such as a linear
normal model with known otherwise numerical app S
are required. The paper suggests a particle filter algorithm as a particularly
appealing approximation that preserves much of the intuitive workings of
system dynamics. A practical example illustrates both the stochastic
modeling process and the approximate Bayesian analysis.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Martin H. Kune

martin kunc@ uai.cl

Universidad Adolfo Ibafiez

Carlos Silva Vildosola 9580 Casa L
786-0130 La Reina Santiago

Chile

Nathalie Katrina Laidler-

Kylander
nathalielaidler_kylander@ tufts.edu
Tufts University

Fletcher School

160 Packard Avenue

Medford MA 02155 USA

Bernard Simonin
bernard.simonin@ tufts.edu
Tufts University

Fletcher School

160 Packard Avenue
Medford MA 02155 USA

David C. Lane

d.clane@ Ise.ac.uk

London School of Economics & Poli Sci

Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
UK

To Cluster or Not to Cluster: A Simulation Study of
Managerial Practices for Innovating in SMEs

During the last two decades a strong line of research has emerged in

research and poli ” agenda: the relationship between
firms and clusters. One of the several reasons explaining the increased
interest in clusters is the positive association between networks within
geographical boundaries and knowledge diffusion. However, there is a strong
assumption in this reasoning: clustered firms have enough capabilities to
transform local interaction, which has to be also rich in information, into
valuable knowledge to improve its performance. What will happen if firms in
the cluster lack of skills to absorb information? What will happen if clustered
firms do not have rich interactions? This paper aims to show the benefits and
trade-offs existing for a Small and Medium Enterprises when at the moment
of start an internati ion process need to decide either to
emphasize the interfim interactions generated inside a cluster or to follow a
standalone process without clustering.

Modeling Brand Equity in International Nonprofit
Organizations: A System Dynamics Approach

While nonprofit organizations and their brands are growing in importance
and stature, these organizations display surprisingly limited brand
management activities. This is partly due to the fact that no explicit brand
equity models exist specifically for nonprofit organizations. The aim of this
research is to build a formal model of brand equity for international nonprofit
organizations engaged in ad and relief work, using a
combination of a system dynamics approach and grounded theory
development. In doing so, we hope to contribute to the system dynamics
literature by illustrating the step-by-step process of building a model from
actual case studies rather than the traditional approach of literature review.
Based on in-depth field work in three organizations (Care, Oxfam, and World
Vision), two waves of focus groups with 18 brand managers led to the
derivation and validation of a formal brand equity model. At the heart of this
model are four core variables (Consistency, Focus, Trust, and Partnerships)
and their associated causal loops. As such, this research constitutes a
significant attempt to advance our understanding of brand equity in
nonprofits through modeling, and to demonstrate the effective use of system
dynamics in areas of marketing that have traditionally not considered this
methodological approach.

Formal Theory Building for the Avalanche Game:
Explaining surprising behaviour using geometrical
& human behavioural effects

In ‘Avalanche’ a rod is lowered to the ground, team members staying in

contact throughout. Normally the task is easy. However, with larger group
sizes counter-intuitive behaviours appear, including the object’s ascending. A

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 107

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Bill Lawless
lawlessw@ mail.paine.edu
Paine College

1235 15th Street
Augusta GA 30901-3182
USA

Reda M. Lebcir

mr lebeir@ herts.ac.uk

Hertfordshire University

Business School De Havilland Campus
College Lane

Hatfield Herts AL10 9AB UK

Rifat A. Atun

ratun@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Tanaka Business School
South Kensington Campus
London SW7 2AZ UK

Richard Coker

richard.coker@ Ishtm.ac.uk

London Schl of Hygiene & Tropical Med
Keppel Street

London WC1E 7HT

UK

108 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

formal theory for the geometric element and other human behaviour effects
gives insight into the behaviours. Each player has two balancing loops, one
involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players
these loops interact and these can allow intermittent dominance by
reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever
increasing goal. Analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which
the system is able to move downwards. An analogy is drawn between the co-
operative behaviour required in this system and Prisoners’ Dilemma
situations. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system’s modes
and their causes. Reflections on the benefits of formal theory building close
the paper.

An evolvable model of organizations: A bistable or
quantum approach

A nonlinear approach to game theory has been designed to resolve two of its
major problems: The arbitrariness of valuing cooperation greater than
competition in determining social welfare; and the lack of interdependent
uncertainty. The approach is to develop quantum or bistable agents and
relationships. The quantum approach means that agents in relationships are
more likely to be found in bistable states that correspond to their observation-
action or energy-time levels; e.g., the more complex, competitive, or
conflictual the state, the greater the energy required but also the less time
available to enact an action. In our view, games are initialized, evolved to a
state that solves a target problem, then measured, consequently creating a
measurement problem. In past research, we have resolved the measurement
problem. The measurement problem led to the development of metrics that
have been applied to organizations in the field (we briefly illustrate an
application to military Medical Department Research Centers). In this paper,
we focus on modeling control in bistable close and market relationships to
produce evolvable systems.

System Dynamics modelling for highly active
antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and multi drug
resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB) treatm

The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of coverage with highly active
antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and multi drug resistant tuberculosis cure
rates in settings of explosive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)
epidemics and high MDRTB levels. A System Dynamics model was built
and simulated over a 10-year period and scenarios regarding different levels
of HAART coverage and MDRTB cure rates were tested. The results indicate
that increasing HAART coverage reduces cumulative deaths for all levels of
MDRTB cure rate. Increasing MDRTB cure rates is likely to result in only a
reduction in cumulative deaths from tuberculosis of between 1% and 13%
depending on levels of HAART coverage. HAART coverage in the order of
75% or higher is required to substantially reduce deaths from tuberculosis. If
high coverage with HAART is allied to high MDRTB cure rates this may
result in a reduction of approximately 60% of cumulative deaths.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Rene LeClaire

1il@ lanl. gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663

Los Alamos NM 87545

USA

Donatella Pasqualini
dondy@lanl.gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
EES 9 Mail Stop D452

Los Alamos NM 87544

USA

Alisa Bandlow

abandlo@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 Mail Stop 1138
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA

Mary Ewers
mewers@lanl.gov
Los Alamos National Laboratory

D-4 Infrastructure & Energy Analysis
Decision Applications Division MS K557

Los Alamos NM 87545

Jeanne Fair

jmfair@ lanl. gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663

Los Alamos NM 87545

USA

Gary B. Hirsch

gbhirsch@ comcast.net

Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road

Wayland MA 01778

USA

Man-Hyung Lee

manlee@ cbnu.ac.kr

Chungbuk National University
Dept of Urban Planning and Eng
12 Kaeshin-Dong Heungduck-Ku
Cheongju 361-763

Korea

Nam Hee Choi
drnhchoi@ cjnu.ac.kr
Chungju National University

Department of Public Administration
123 Geomdan-ri Iryu-myeon Chungju-shi

Chungbuk 380-702 Republic of
Korea

A Prototype Simulator for Infrastructure
Protection: An Application to Decision Support for
Controlling Disease Outbreaks

The Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIPDSS)
project has developed a risk-informed decision support system that provides
insights for making critical infrastructure protection decisions by considering
many critical inff and their d ies. Since program
inception the project has demonstrated how the CIPDSS can assist decision
makers in making informed choices by functionally representing key critical

fi with their i :pendencies, and computing human health &
safety and economic impacts. The method of delivery to date has involved
the conduct of analysis by the project developers and delivery of the results
in the form of reports, often supplemented with face to face interactions with
sponsors and decisions makers. This approach benefits from having the
analysis conducted by the developers who best understand the underlying
models and their limitations. However, this mode of delivery can be said to
live more distant from those who might best benefit from being exposed to
the analysis and the inherent trade-offs therein. This paper describes the
development of a desktop simulation designed to help bridge this gap
between the CIPDSS analysis and decisions makers. To illustrate the utility
of this approach, an application focused on controlling infectious disease
outbreaks, such as Pandemic Influenza, has been implemented.

NIMBY Dynamics: Location Policy of Crematory
Facilities in Korea

The purpose of this study is to find what factors are directly related to the
location of a NIMBY (Not in my backyard) facilities. Using causal loops and
stock-flow models derived from System Dynamics (SD) approaches, it
focuses on Cheongju crematory location project in Korea. After a series of
simulation works, the research finds that the unilateral tactics handled by the
public unit have aggravated the public project delay as the negative
externalities originated from the adjacent location of NIMBY facilities have
exerted significant influence on the dynamic perceptions of major stake-
holders. We observe that the proposed alternative negotiation-based models
produce higher level of planning performance than the existing approaches in
relatively a shorter period. Even though the former may require more human
and material resources from the very beginning stage, as they have to deal

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 109

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Tsuey-Ping Lee

tping@ thu.edu.tw

Tunghai University

Dept of Public Management and Policy
181 Taichung-kang Rd Sec 3

407 Taichung Taiwan ROC

Yen-Chiang Thomas Lee
924010006@ student.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University

4F No 196-1 Nan-Fu St Fong-San City
Kaohsiung 830

Taiwan

Showing H. Young
young@ cm.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University

with diverse grievances raised by neighboring residents, most of them would
be geared toward strengthening reinforcing loops within the complex conflict
structure. These results imply that the proposed negotiation approach to deal

with public location projects would enhance mutual agreement among major
stake-holders, upgrading the overall quality of public project management.

Using Systems Thinking to Improve Organizational
Learning in the Public Sector : Perspective of
Public Officials

This study examines how public officials who have completed a one semester
two-credit systems thinking graduate course consider how systems thinking
training affect their way of thinking and daily administration behavior.
Additionally, this study also focuses on how these public officials perceive
the barriers to adopting systems thinking for the improvement of
organizational learning in the public sector. This study employs a self-
evaluated survey as the research method. The research results demonstrate
that, after finishing the systems thinking course, questionnaire respondents
request more from leaders to clarify organizational goals and to provide
incentives for members to bring up i ive ideas. Mi hile, resp
believed that they i ication and important more
than before taking the course. However, respondents appeared not to highly
value their own role in achieving organizational goals, and to doubt their own
willingness to incorporate new ideas into daily routines. Additionally, public
officials believe that organizational leaders lack concepts and practice of
systems thinking, and public organizational inertia, thus leading to the failure
of systems thinking practice to improve organizational learning. This study
provides suggestions for systems thinking course design based on the survey
results.

Crisis as the Touchstone of Trust: The Story
between the Enterprise and Banks

Much current work in social sciences seeks to understand the role and
development of trust in the network of modern society. However, the
development process of the trust remains unclear. To explore the dynamic
process of crisis and trust, this paper primarily examines on the role that trust
plays in the financial manager’s network relation, and the influence of its

ion with the banks. This study focuses on a state-owned enterprise in

of Business
PO Box 59-35
Kaohsiung Taiwan

110 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Taiwan that suffered from financial crisis and downsizing. Systems thinking
combined with narrative inquiry are adopted to investigate the dynamic
change of relationship between the enterprise and banks before and after
crisis. The findings show that trust becomes considerably important when an
organization suffers from a financial crisis, and the relation between the
organization and banks tends to change after the crisis. Finally, an integrative
model for crisis and trust is proposed to improve Webb’s model and
contributes to interpret the dynamic relation of crisis and trust. Keyword:
Social Network, Trust, Crisis, Narrative Inquiry, Systems Thinking.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Anson Kin Tat Li

akt.li@ auckland.ac.nz

University of Auckland

PO Box 105465 Auckland Central
Auckland

New Zealand

Kambiz E. Maani
kmaani@auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
Private Bag 92019

1-11 Short Street Room 717
Auckland New Zealand

Chao-Yueh Liu
chaoyueh.liu@ gmail.com
University at Albany
14 Niblock Ct FI 2
Albany NY 12206
USA

Chun-Shuo Chen
cc7842@ albany.edu
University at Albany
840 Washington Ave FI 1
Albany NY 12203

USA

Min Liu

jaminliu@ gmx.de

University of Italian Switzerland
Corso Elvezia 22

6900 Lugano

Switzerland

Pitfalls in Decision-Making in Complex Systems

Experiential research, as well as three decades of working with managers
across diverse cultures has revealed an unmistakable pattern of
counterproductive decision-making by managers. In general, managers
exhibit a tendency to “over-intervene” in the systems they are responsible for.
This indicates an inad ppreciation and ding of complexity
and S, i f ions and ii ility in their
organizations. Sterman (1989, 2000) and Maani et al (2004) have studied
these phenomena in simulated and experimental environments respectively.
Research results, as well as causal observations, highlight a number of mental
models and behaviours undertaken by managers in dealing with complex
issues. The key research question of this study: “Why managerial
interventions in complex organizations often produce counterintuitive
failures?” has led to seven propositions investigated in this research.
Empirical results from 224 experiments, using two pre-tested microworlds,
inform and support our propositions. Research subjects comprise practicing
managers, MBA and other graduate students. The findings show congruence
with related research, including the multi-year longitudinal study by Collins
(2001). The findings have important implications for complex decision-
making, leadership and organizational interventions and transformation.

A System Dynamics Model of Bilateral Intellectual
Property Negotiations

Copyright piracy and other intellectual property right (IPR) infringements in
developing countries have become serious problems for many developed
countries. Intellectual property (IP)-oriented industries in developed countries
fear that piracy will impact their revenues. In the U.S., the IP industry usually
lobbies the government to pressure countries with serious piracy problems to
protect IP. Though the US trade representative takes an aggressive
negotiating stance in this area, the U.S. IP industry and government never
seem satisfied with the results. This paper builds a system dynamics model to
gain insight into the interactions involving the IPR issue between the U.S.
government, the U.S. IP industry, China’s government, and China’s local
governments. Through this model, the historical behaviors between the U.S.
and China will be examined to show that U.S. pressures do improve China’s
IP protection while other factors weaken China’s effort to protect IP.

Private-Public Cycle: Testing Hirschman's Theory
of Shifting Involvements with a Formal Model
Why do societies oscillate, on a roughly twenty-year cycle, between modes

of private acquisitiveness and public spiritedness? Albert O. Hirschman
argues that disappointment is the main cause explaining why societies never

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 111

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Cécile Emery

cecile.emery@ lu.unisi.ch
University of Italian Switzerland
Via G Buffi 13

6900 Lugano

Switzerland

Luis Lépez

luis.lopez@ incae.edu

INCAE Graduate School of Business
PO Box 960-4050

Alajuela 4050 Costa Rica

Albert Sufié

albertsune@ upc.edu

Technical University of Catalonia
ETSEIAT C Colom 11

08222 Terrassa Spain

David W. Lounsbury

lounsbud@ mskec.org

Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
Dept of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sci
641 Lexington Ave 7th Floor

New York NY 10022

USA

Ralph L. Levine
leviner@ msu.edu

Michigan State University
CARRS Dept

East Lansing MI 48824

Luis F. Luna-Reyes
luisf_luna@ udlap.mx

Universidad de las Americas Puebla
Casa 5D Zona D

Santa Catarina Martir

Cholula Puebla 72820

Mexico

112 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

stop shifting from an ideology promoting private interests to another
philosophy which endorses public action and vice versa. The aims of this
paper are to reconstruct Hirschman’s reasoning using a System Dynamics
approach and to build a simul: model ref the

societies experiment between private and public interests. Our simulation
results reproduce the behaviour implied by Hirschman, therefore showing
evidence of the dynamic consistency of his argumentation. Furthermore, an
example taken for a novel and empirical data, which represents the evolution
of turn-out in the US, have been used to gain deeper support of our findings.
Further research using this model is promising.

Turnover-induced Forgetting

A firm’s productivity may fall despite continued accumulation of output. We
show such productivity decline by means of an in-depth case study with
detailed longitudinal data. Hiring of inexperienced labor disrupts the firm’s
knowledge stock by bringing in workers with less than average experience.
Thus, the firm’s knowledge becomes diluted through labor-turnover induced
organizational forgetting.

Episode-of-Care Analysis and Tobacco Treatment
in Primary Care Settings

Economists and health services researchers have long been faced with the
problem of how to effectively unitize and assess cost and quality of health
care delivery across diverse practice settings. One such approach is episode-
of-care analysis, first theorized and applied by Hornbrook and his colleagues
in the mid-1980s. A health care episode is defined as a series of health-
related events with a beginning, an end, and a course, all related to a given
health problem that exists over a specific time period (i.e., time horizon). The
concept of a health care episode lends itself to system dynamics analysis of
the p as well as the of evi ‘based medical care. In our
research we have adapted an episode-of-care framework to the topic of
treating tobacco use and dependence. In particular, we have defined four
types of episodes, namely smoking episodes, quitting episodes, illness
episodes, and treatment episodes, which we are studying in relationship to
two general goals: Motivating patients who currently use tobacco to quit and,
for those who quit, preventing their relapse. We review the literature on
episode-of-care analysis and discuss alternative ways to model the dynamics
of tobacco treatment at the level of the primary care practice.

Towards a Theory of Interorganizational
Collaboration: Generic Structures of Cross-
Boundary Requirements Analysis
In this paper, we present a series of causal maps that constitute an initial

effort in the creation of a generic theory of interorganizational cross-
boundary requirements analysis. Such causal structures are the result of a

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
315A Milne Hall

135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA

Kathleen Lusk Brooke

centerforstudyofsuccess@ post harvard.edu

Center for the Study of Success
PO Box 331

West Stockbridge MA 02166-0331
USA

Frank P. Davidson
151 Main Street

Concord MA 01742-2436
USA

David A. Lyell

david lyell@ futureechoes.com.au
University of New South Wales
14/108 High Street

Mascot NSW 2020

Australia

Geoff McDonnell
gmcdonne@ bigpond.net.au
Adaptive Care Systems
382 Bronte Road
Bronte NSW 2024
Australia

simulation-based study in which we explored the interactions and social

Pp iated with the of trust and kn ge sharing in
the devel of an interor information system in New York
State: the Homeless Information Management System (HIMS). The paper
includes the main theoretical and practical implications of the modeling and
simulation work, as well as discussion of some paths to continue the
exploration of collaboration in this specific context. The causal maps are
organized around three themes that emerged during the modeling process.
The first theme is related to trust development, and its recursive interactions
with knowledge sharing and learning. The second theme is related to the

importance of achi by establishing a trusting
environment as opposed to the use of authority or coercive mechanisms. The
last theme is i with the ding of req fini asa

social process of learning and knowledge transfer.

Building the World: System Dynamics and
Macroengineering

Humans are builders -- we make structures to span rivers, to craft canals, to
establish cities. Throughout history, civilizations have created iconic
monuments of such immense scale, requiring tremendous resources, that they
might have been thought impossible. From the Taj Mahal to the Suez Canal,
from Solomon's Temple to the Channel Tunnel, these feats of
macroengineering are a testament to the creativity and foresight of architects,
engineers, governmental leaders, lawyers, bankers, and diplomats. The
macroengineering projects in this presentation can be analyzed through the
methodology of system dynamics. In this PowerPoint Poster, Frank P.
Davidson and Kathleen Lusk Brooke will present an overview of their book,
"Building the World: An Encyclopedia of the Great Engineering Projects in
History" regarded by Dr. Jay W. Forrester as "amazing and impressive" and
by Dr. David H. Marks, Director of MIT's Laboratory for Energy and the
Environment, as "a tribute to the role of large-scale infrastructure in the
evolution of the world's societies." This Poster Presentation will announce a
"Building the World Prize" for the best system dynamics essay on plausible
approaches to help improve the world's future. For more information, please
visit: www.buildingtheworld.com.

A Dynamic Balanced Scorecard for Managing
Health Systems Performance

Health system performance management is a dynamically complex problem,
affected by a large number of factors which interact to produce health
outcomes over time. A brief review of current health system performance
assessment instruments, including the balanced scorecard, demonstrates only
a limited ability to deal with the dynamic complexity of this problem. These
are limitations that can be overcome with the incorporation of system
dynamics methods. We propose a dynamic balanced scorecard for managing
regional health system performance in New South Wales, Australia. Central
to this scorecard will be an understanding of the dynamic interactions of cost,
quality and access and how these affect population health.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 113

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Debra A. Lyneis
lyneisd@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
PO Box 121

215 Landgrove Road
Weston VT 05161 USA

James M. Lyneis

jmlyneis@ verizon.net

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
PO Box 121

215 Landgrove Road

Weston VT 05161 USA

John Lyneis

jlyneis@ mit.edu

MIT

1010 Massachusetts Avenue Apt 56
Cambridge MA 02138 USA

Matthew Forrester
matthew_forrester@ sloan.mitedu
Fortera Systems Inc

2647 Sharondale Circle
Atlanta GA 30305 USA

Joe Chiaojen Hsueh

jochsueh@ mitedu

MIT, Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-358A
Cambridge MA 02142 USA

John Sterman

jsterman@ mitedu

MIT Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142 USA

Roderick H. MacDonald
rod@ isdps.org

Initiative for SD in the Public Sector
300 G Milne Hall

University at Albany

Albany NY 12222

USA

Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh
mohammad@ attunegroup.com

Attune Group Inc

16 Regina Court Suite 1

Delmar NY 12054

USA

114 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Two Loops, Three Loops, Four Loops: Pedagogic
Issues in Explaining Epidemic Dynamics

How many feedback loops, and of what type, control the behavior of an
epidemic? This seemingly simple question arose on trying to relate the
behavior of the epidemic model widely used in K-12 system dynamics to its
three-loop feedback structure. A search of the literature discovered two-,
three-, and four-loop versions of the basic epidemic model in introductory
system dynamics materials. How can the same behavior be explained with
such different feedback structures? Can they all be right? This paper will
analyze the three basic model structures and discuss implications for system
dynamics pedagogy.

Extending the Industry Evolution Management
Flight Simulators: Golf and Solar Industries

The Industry Evolution M Flight (MEFS) was p

at the MIT Sloan School of Management for use in the MBA Strategic
Management curriculum. As described in the proceedings of the 2006 System
Dynamics Conference, this MFS includes a generic firm and industry
structure that is then adapted to various industries that each emphasize
different strategic environments. Earlier applications include the Salt industry
and the Video Game console industry. Here, we summarize this work and
present two new applications, both tested in a spring 2007 MBA elective
course. The first is a MFS of the premium golf club industry. This simulator
allows students to experience typical boom and bust dynamics following the
introduction of a new consumer durable and experiment with strategies
related to price, R&D and marketing. The second new application is a MFS
of the Solar Panel industry. In addition to exposing students to the potential
of this emerging and important industry, this MFS gives students the
opportunity to experience learning curve dynamics for a new technology and
understand the importance of knowledge spillovers towards their choice of
strategy.

Criminal Justice Simulation Model (CJSIM):
Technology and the Flow of Criminals in the
Criminal Justice Syste

This paper examines what would happen in the New York’s criminal justice
system if two primary changes were made. Those changes are an exogenous
doubling of the number of new criminals entering the system (new people
becoming criminals) and a doubling of the productivity of police officers.
These inputs were selected because they represent changes on the front or
upstream end of the criminal justice system, and the effects of these changes
on the whole system could be observed. Changes in police capacity, number
of people in prison and the total number of active criminals are examined to
the implications that ical imp that increase
police productivity may have on other parts of the criminal justice system.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Leonard A. Malezynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories
1515 Eubank SE

Albuquerque NM 87123-1350
USA

Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
imartinez@ albany.edu

Argonne National Laboratory

9700 S Cass Ave Bldg 900 DIS
Argonne IL 60439

USA

David L. Sallach

sallach@ anl.gov

Argonne National Laboratory
9700 South Cass Avenue
Argonne IL 60439

USA

Mark J. Bragen

bragen@ anl.gov

Argonne National Laboratory
9700 South Cass Avenue
Argonne IL 60439

USA

Prakash R. Thimmapuram
prakash@ anl.gov

Argonne National Laboratory
9700 South Cass Avenue
Argonne IL 60439

USA

Understanding Carbon Sequestration: A Systems
Analysis Tool

A team of collaborators within the Southwest Regional Partnership (SWP) on
Carbon Sequestration developed an interactive software tool to help facilitate
discussions involving the science, engineering, economic and policy
iderations for a carbon pilot project. This paper

the A model, and highl the ‘String of
Pearls’ network algorithm used to develop a potential carbon dioxide (CO2)
transportation network in sequence with existing infrastructure and speaks to
the use of system dynamics in a government setting. The ‘String of Pearls’
model fi k can assess ical sink choices ing to their
distance from the point source (e.g., power plants), relative size (to maintain
a useful fill lifetime for a project under consideration), relative distance from
existing CO2 transportation infrastructure such as pipelines, and other salient
project attributes. The results indicate that the cost to capture CO2 at point
sources is the largest component of the overall CO2 capture, transportation
and storage system’s initial cost estimate. The ‘String of Pearls’ Integrated
Assessment model can help planners assess these issues using an integrated,
systems view when deciding where to develop future carbon sequestration
pilot projects. The modeling process and the model itself are described in this
analysis.

Design for a Multi-Layer Model of Financial
Stability: Exploring the Integration of System
Dynamics and Agent-based Models

for ing of complex systems with policy-
oriented implications sometimes requires that several different levels of
aggregation be considered and formally included. In the system dynamics
tradition, different levels of aggregation are not normally combined, leaving
certain classes of p outside of the traditi use of system d: i
models. Agent-based models can capture a very fine-grained level of detail of
the system under study but lack the ability to parsimoniously and clearly link
behavior to structure. This paper presents a domain in which a combined
approach seems to be adequate. Additionally, two alternatives to dealing with
the problem of integrating data from different levels of aggregation using
system ics and based models are di:

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 115

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
imartinez@ albany.edu

Argonne National Laboratory

9700 S Cass Ave Bldg 900 DIS
Argonne IL 60439 USA

Stephen H. Conrad
shconra@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1138
Albuquerque NM 87185 USA

Andrew Cox

andrew.cox@ dhs.gov

Department of Homeland Security
Transportation Security Administration
601 South 12th Street

Arlington VA 22202 USA

Chris Krahe

chris.krahe@ dhs. gov

Department of Homeland Security
Transportation Security Administration
601 South 12th Street

Arlington VA 22202 USA

Ali Naghi Mashayekhi
mashayekhi@ alum.mitedu

Sharif University of Technology

Grad School of Management and Econ
PO Box 11365-8639 Azadi Avenue
11365 Tehran

Iran

Peter B. Boggs
pboggs@ ta2kg.org

The Asthma 2000 Group
4817 Gilbert Drive
Shreveport LA 71106
USA

Ali Naghi Mashayekhi
mashayekhi@ alum.mit.edu

Sharif University of Technology

Grad School of Management and Econ
PO Box 11365-8639 Azadi Avenue
11365 Tehran Iran

116 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Modeling Aviation Security Processes: A Group
Model Building Approach

The U.S. Transportation Security (TSA) is collat ing with
a team of system dynamics modelers from the national laboratories to build a
model of their security checkp i at US ial airports for
the purpose of proactively identifying high-leverage opportunities for
investment to improve system performance. To elicit a broad range of
expertise and opinions to develop our understanding of the systemic issues
facing TSA as they strive to improve their security checkpoint operations, we
conducted more than 30 interviews with headquarters and field-operations
staff and hosted a 2-day group model building exercise. In this paper, we use
both causal-loop diagrams together with a description of the results of the
group model building exercise to present a rich articulation of the issues
facing TSA in managing their security checkpoints. We also show how the
complex interrelationships among various factors ultimately impact the
effectiveness and efficiency of the aviation security checkpoint.

A System Dynamics Model of Asthma Care

Abstract Although our understanding of asthma and its treatment has grown
far beyond what was known during the 19th century, both the morbidity and
mortality rate from asthma is much higher now than then. In the medical
community this is known as the great asthma paradox. In this paper we
present a system dynamics model to investigate the causes of this paradox.
The model shows how the short-treatments that were not available in the past
cause much of the problem behavior of asthma care today. We show the
system mechanisms that cause short-term treatments to begat more
treatments; that invite those with asthma to become addicted to short-term
treatment; and that show how side effects of short-term treatments deteriorate
asthma conditions. We then introduce the long-term treatment concepts into
the model and examine their impact on asthma care. Through model
simulations we show how a proper combination of the long-term and short-
term treatments can create optimal results. The results from our model are
compatible with clinical results observed by physicians experienced in the
care of people with asthma.

System Dynamics Learning Environment in
Teaching Supply Demand Interactions
The market mechanism works through the interaction between supply and
demand. In economics, this interaction is taught through comparative static

analysis which does not really capture the dynamics involved in the market
place. In this paper, we have developed a series of system dynamics models

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Keyvan Vakili

keyvanv@ gmail.com

Sharif University of Technology
Sth floor No 161 Shahid Akbari St
Seyd Jamaleddine Asadabadi Ave
Tehran Iran

Hamid Foroughi

hamidforoughi@ yahoo.com

Sharif University of Technology
Graduate School of Mgt and Economics
Azadi Avenue

11365 Tehran Iran

Micah McCutchan

Enrique Campos-Nanez
ecamposn@ gwu.edu

George Washington University
1776 G Street NW Suite 161
Washington DC 20052

USA

Marion McGregor

mmegregor@ cmec.ca

Canadian Memorial Chiropractic College
90 Little Rouge Circle

Stouffville ON L4A 0G2

Canada

to represent the dynamics of such interactions. We start with a simple model
which is dynamically richer than the model presented to the students in
classical economics text books. Then we identify the simplified assumptions
made in the simple model and then gradually relax them one by one in the
next models to make the models more realistic. As the assumptions are
relaxed, the dynamic complexity increases and students can gradually get
deeper and richer ding of the d ics of ions between
supply and demand in the market place. We put the whole sequence of the
models on a micro-world to make a learning environment that teaches the
concepts to students through using the environment on a computer in an
interactive ways. We then run some experiences to examine the effectiveness
of the learning environment to develop the capabilities of users to understand
and explain the dynamics of supply and demand in some real world
situations. The experiences show that our learning environment is very
effective.

The Effect of Network Topology in Social Diffusion:
A System Dynamics Approach

Several classical system dynamics models, such as models of disease spread,
and technology adoption, are built under assumption of a homogeneous
population. These assumptions have been recently challenged by recent
results showing that the degree distributions of many social and natural
networks, such as the so-called scale-free networks, exhibit long-tailed
degree distributions. This paper adopts a system dynamics approach to
replicate preferential attachment, one of the network dynamics mechanisms
known to produce power-scale distributions. We then study the diffusion
processes on these networks, e.g. epidemics, product adoptions. We consider
a basic compartment model (Susceptible- Infected) and apply scale free
network topology in place of the random network topology that is
traditionally assumed. The resulting model is used to assess the effect of the
topology on the diffusion of attributes throughout the network.

Jurisdictional Control of Conservative Spine Care:
Chiropractic versus Medicine

This investigation explores inter-r conflict for juri

control and market share advantage. A System Dynamics model, informed by
theory of inter-professional competition, was created, focusing on a
profession classified as “major” and competitor profession classified as
“minor”. Medicine was chosen as the major player, since efforts to manage
healthcare expenditures have fostered attitudes that support substituting lower
cost alternatives. Chiropractic was chosen as the competitor, due to its
independent status, and its prominence in the CAM field. The jurisdiction of
interest was neck and/or back pain. It was posited that an increase in
academic abstract knowledge or an increase in professional association
membership would benefit the minor player. In addition, it was hypothesized
that an increase in supply of the dominant profession would adversely affect
chiropractic, as would pressure on medicine from external sources such as
health i ion results d that i ing the

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 117

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Douglas McKelvie
douglas.mckelvie@ symmetricsd.co.uk
18 James Street Flat 4

Edinburgh EH15 2DW UK

Savas Hadjipavlou

savas. hadjipavlou@ homeoffice.gsi.gov.uk
Home Office

2nd Floor Fry Building NE Qtr DSPD
2 Marsham Street

London SW1P 4DF UK

David Monk

david. monk@ symmetricsd.co.uk
Symmetric SD Limited

47 Rugby Road

Brighton BNI6EB UK

Samantha Foster
Home Office

2 Marsham Street
London SW1P 4DF UK

Eric F. Wolstenholme
e.wolstenholme@ btinternet.com
Symmetric SD Limited

47 Rugby Road

Brighton BN] 6EB UK

David Todd

david.todd@ symmetricsd.co.uk
Symmetric SD Limited
The Grain Store

127 Gloucester Road
Brighton BN] 4AF UK

Dennis Meadows

lataillede@ aol.com

Laboratory for Interactive Learning
PO Box 844

Durham NH 03824

USA

118 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

ic abstract ki of the minor p: had only a minimal
impact, after an extended delay. No differences were seen by increasing
association membership. Negative effects on the minor profession’s market
share were observed when supply of the dominant player was increased and
when external pressure was intensified. In general, simulation results favored
medicine’s monopoly.

The use of SD methodology to develop services for
the assessment and treatment of high risk serious
offenders in England& Wales

In England and Wales, national government has introduced a range of
policies for dealing with the most dangerous offenders. These include new
sentencing arrangements, new treatment programmes, and enhanced
supervision of those released on licence. Policy makers needed to estimate
the impact of this policy on the prison population and to consider how much
treatment and community supervision capacity would be needed over time.
They worked with a small SD consultancy to develop and build a model
using ithink software, to enable a variety of scenarios to be tested, adopting a
group model building approach. A number of staff received training in SD,
including model building. The paper outlines the policy background, model
structure and examples of scenarios. As well as being a practical application
of SD to a sensitive area of public policy, the project is an example of what
can be achieved within a relatively short intervention.

Dynamics of Growth in the New Hampshire Prison
Population

Although statistics suggest that serious crimes are infrequent and probably
decreasing, the population of inprisioned people in New Hampshire is
growing exponentially. This model shows the dominant loops responsible for
this paradox. From the model we learn that the processes of judgement and
incarceration have reversed the process we normally associate with the prison
system - society creates prisioners in order to fill new prisons rather than
constructing new prisons in order to house the criminal.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Alexandra Medina-Borja

nmedina@ viedu

University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez
Department of Industrial Engineering

PO Box 9043
Mayaguez PR 00681

Kalyan S. Pasupathy
pasupathyk@ missouri.edu
University of Missouri
D of Health

& Info

Uncovering Complex Relationships in System
Dynamics Modeling: Exploring the Use of CHAID
and CART

One of the premises of system dynamics is that the modeler would make
assumptions about variable relationships with enough precision to make the
model useful. A common validation method is to consult with field experts,
but with the advent of the internet, and automated data collection methods,

324 Clark Hall
Columbia MO 65211 USA

Arif Mehmood
amehmood73@ hotmail.com

United Arab Emirates University
College of Engineering

PO Box 17555

Al Ain United Arab Emirates

k is diluted as companies store abundant information without time
to process it. High turnover rates at companies paired with large amounts of
data have reduced the number of "experts." Without experts, companies are
data rich but not necessarily knowledge rich. Customers’ dislikes,
perceptions, intentions, opinions, and service characteristics reside in data
warehouses (e.g. survey data is stored as categorical, nominal, ordinal or
qualitative without further analysis). We present an application of
Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Chi-Square Automatic
Interaction Detection (CHAID) which are known nonparametric predictive
methodologies to uncover/confirm significant variable relationships and build
the equations to feed the model. An illustrative example of CHAID/SEM to
explore restructuring decisions in a large service organization will be briefly
discussed.

Understanding the Dynamics of Causal Factors
related to Excessive Speeding Behavior of the
Drivers

Excessive speeding behavior of the drivers is one of the challenges in the
area of transportation around the world. Excessive speeding is defined as
driving faster than the posted speed limit or driving too fast for the prevailing
traffic and environment conditions. This paper provides a modeling
framework that integrates the dynamic interaction between causal factors
responsible for motivating drivers to adopt excessive speeding behavior. This
modeling framework is developed based on information gathered through
extensive literature review on speed choice behavior of the drivers,
interviews of officials from police department, and interviews of a group of
drivers. The ling fr has been L into a formal
simulation model. The development of simulation model includes heuristic
relationships that need refinements based on empirical evidence. It is
expected that end product of this research would be a fully integrated
decision-support tool that would help in understanding the resistance to
achieving a sustainable reduction in the number of excessive speeding
drivers.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 119

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Arif Mehmood
amehmood73@ hotmail.com

United Arab Emirates University
College of Engineering

PO Box 17555

Al Ain United Arab Emirates

David S. Miller
dsm@ alum.mitedu
MIT

101 Stedman Street
Brookline MA 02446
USA

John Sterman

jsterman@ mitedu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

Application of System Dynamics to Human
Resource M ment of Canadian Naval Reserves

The mission of the Canadian Naval Reserves (NAVRES) is to provide
trained reservists to meet various challenges of its combat and support
elements to enable Canada to meet its objectives in time of peace, crisis or
war. In order to sustain effectively and economically NAVRES has to
manage an optimal number of the trained reservists in meeting their demands.
The responsibilities and tasks of meeting the growing demands of the trained
reservists can be daunting, risky, and costly without the proper knowledge
and tools for evaluating the nature, structure, and potential behavior of the
different components of the NAVRES as they relate to the mission of the
organization. This paper describes a model that assists management of the
NAVRES to deal with the challenges organization is faced with; as well as
plan, manage and drive the future and strategic focus of the organization in
its desired direction. The model estimates the requirements of the trained
reservists at different levels under various scenarios as well as provides a
laboratory environment for the decision makers to test virtually unlimited
number of strategies that would accelerate their learning and help them in
designing robust and effective strategies to successfully manage their
resources strategically.

New Venture Commercialization of Clean Energy
Technologies

Clean energy technol lower harmful emissi iated with the
generation and use of power and many of these technologies have been
shown to be cost effective and to provide significant benefits to adopters.
This paper examines why new ventures founded to commercialize these
technologies have failed to achieve widespread adoption. Based on
interviews with clean energy P 's and other and on
case studies of clean energy technology ventures, a new venture simulation
model was developed that models the cash flow, labor force, market,

petition, and product Pp forap pical clean energy
technology venture. When the model is parameterized to correspond to a
venture that starts with superior technology at an attractive price its behavior
corresponds to the experience of many of the companies interviewed. The
modeled venture takes many years to achieve profitability due to long sales
cycles, limits to market growth, and the time needed to gain experience
producing and selling its products, and therefore has a high probability of
failure. Analysis of the model results in a set of guidelines for what these
ventures, investors, and policy makers should do to increase their odds of
success.

120 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Nathan A. Minami
minamin@ mitedu

US Army

107 Patterson Rd

Hanscom AFB MA 01731 USA

Leticia Soto

Isoto@ sloan.mitedu

US Navy

9742 Maryland Avenue
Norfolk VA 23511 USA

Donna H. Rhodes

rhodes@ mit.edu

MIT

77 Massachusetts Avenue NE20-388
Cambridge MA 02139 USA

Nathan A. Minami
minamin@ mitedu

US Army

107 Patterson Rd
Hanscom AFB MA 01731
USA

Donna H. Rhodes

rhodes@ mitedu

MIT

77 Massachusetts Avenue NE20-388
Cambridge MA 02139

USA

Dennis A. Minnich
dennis.minnich@ i-u.de
McKinsey & Company Inc
Kénigsallee 60C

40027 Diisseldorf
Germany

Frank H. Maier

frank maier@ i-u.de

International University in Germany
International University Campus 1
D-76646 Bruchsal

Germany

Improving the Naval Construction Process Through
Lean Implementation

This study uses systems dynamics modeling to analyze the United States
Navy’s current construction administration process from design to

in order to d process imp , which will
prevent cost overruns, delays, and ultimately a waste of tax payers’ resources.
This study specifically examines the impact of upstream design
implementations on the entire system, and incorporates a number of lean
thinking ideas. It demonstrates the positive effects of increased
constructability efforts and design sharing among engineers, and indicates
that when limited resources exist it is best to focus constructability and
design sharing efforts as early as possible during the upstream process.
Finally, this paper concludes with a number of recommendations for how the
United States Navy’s Civil Engineer Corps and possibly Seabee Construction
Battalions can best implement these ideas.

Network Centric Operations and the Brigade Unit
of Action

The U.S. Army is currently transforming to a more agile and deployable
organization, which is centered largely on the integration of new information
technologies. While most Army leaders report that many of these new
information “tools” such as the Amy Battle Command System (ABCS) give
them an unp level of , others report that the
integration of this new digital technology comes with some unintended
consequences that in some cases actually slows information flow. We studied
the “Brigade Unit of Action” concept with specific emphasis on the
Brigade’s ability to disseminate and process information within and between
command posts, using System Dynamics as a modeling tool to help better
understand the impact of various policy decisions. Our study concluded with
five heuristics that Army leaders should consider when developing the future
command and control architecture for the Brigade Unit of Action.

Responsiveness and Efficiency of Pull-Based and
Push-Based Planning Systems in the High-Tech
Electronics Industry

Planning systems for supply chain management can be designed in different
ways in order to achieve the multiple objectives of supply chain management.
Two of these objectives are responsiveness and efficiency of the system. In
this paper, a System Dynamics simulation model is used to assess the
performance of planning approaches for supply chains in the high-tech
electronics industry on the dimensions of responsiveness and efficiency.
Supply chains in this industry are subject to a number of challenges that

the of these two objectives. The findings suggest
that pull-based planning approaches can be used to achieve high efficiency
and responsiveness, at the expense of higher fluctuations in capacity
utilization upstream in the supply chain.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 121

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Moh d T. Mojtahed:

mohammad@ attunegroup.com
Attune Group Inc
16 Regina Court Suite 1
Delmar NY 12054

SA

Edoardo Mollona
emollona@ cs.unibo it

Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Department of Computer Science
Mura Anteo Zamboni 7

40127 Bologna

Italy

Alessandro Sposito

sposito@ cs.unibo .it

Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Via Murti 29

Bologna 40137

Italy

122 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Do the Parallel Lines Meet? A Comparison between
Pathway Participation Metrics and Eigenvalue
Analysis

The search for tools and techniques aimed at model analysis has gained
momentum in the system dynamics community during the last decade. A
variety of approaches have been developed, modified and applied to replace
or enhance the traditional intuitive-based schemes for ding the
behavior of dynamic models according to its feedback structure. Despite the
diversity of the methods developed for model analysis, recent studies suggest
that there is considerable convergence in the results they produce. The
objective of this paper is to explore some of the similarities and differences
between pathway participation metrics and elasticity analysis that
can potentially explain the reasons for the convergence and divergence in
analysis. In the first part of the paper, we lay out some of the theoretical
differences and similarities in approaches between aspects of pathway
participation metrics and eigenvalue elasticity analysis in order to explain
how they, despite the significant differences in the process of model analysis,
can produce similar and comparable results under certain conditions. The
second part of the paper presents application of pathway participation metrics
in three simple models that have been previously analyzed using the
eigenvalue elasticity approach. The case studies highlight some of the
similarities and differences between the two approaches.

Transaction Costs and Outsourcing Dynamics: A
System Dynamics Approach

, firms are their p Or ing regards not
only peripheral activities but portions of key activities as well. Outsourcing is
a pervasive phenomenon that often overlaps, and interferes with, the strategic
decision to define a firm’s boundaries. By outsourcing phases of R&D
processes, for example, firms may lose their know-how concerning the
production of core products. The outsourcing of processes may interact with
a firm’s organizational learning, thereby influencing the definition of the
boundary that includes the core activity of the firm. Thus, managing
outsourcing requires regulating the flow of knowledge that leaves the
organization. Such a calibration produces transaction costs, which, in the
long term, may decrease the desirability of outsourcing. To address the
dynamic interplay among forces at work in outsourcing processes we built a
system dynamics model. Specifically, the model represents the different
components of software production. One of the main industries on which
outsourcing has had a big impact in the last few years is software
development. Our model attempts to include the main dynamics of a
software-house company that is considering the possibility of outsourcing its
production. We used the model to generate a number of hypotheses to study
long term consequences of outsourcing policies.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Giovan Battista Montemaggiore
giannimonte@ hotmail.com

University of Palermo

Via del Segugio 8

90125 Palermo

Italy

Andrew P. Moore
apm@ sei.cmu.edu

Carnegie Mellon University
Software Engineering Institute
4500 Fifth Avenue

Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA

Dawn M. Cappelli

dmc@ certorg

Carnegie Mellon University
Software Engineering Institute
4500 Fifth Avenue

Pittsburgh PA 15213-3890 USA

Hannah Joseph

hjoseph@ cmu.edu

Carnegie Mellon University

CERT Software Engineering Institute
4555 Fifth Avenue

Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA

Randall F. Trzeciak

rit@ certorg

Carnegie Mellon University

CERT Software Engineering Institute
4555 Fifth Avenue

Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA

Ana Maria Mora Luna
amoraluna@ gmail.com

Medellin Metropolitan Area
Carrera 78A #46-45

Ed Ravenna Apt 902

Medellin

Colombia

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

The Dynamic Balanced Scorecard as Third
Generation of Performance Measurement Systems

In the last decades, traditional PMS, exclusively based on financial
indicators, have been criticized since they give no information about
companies’ ability to achieve long-term survival and growth. For this reason,
since the *90s scholars have been proposing several PMS oriented to evaluate
company results to the different di ions of firms’ success.
Among them, the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) still represents the most diffuse
multi-dimensional PMS both in literature and practice. Since its introduction,
the BSC has been subjected to a rapid evolution process that has led some
scholars to identify three different generations. By analyzing the BC
evolution process, we will try to underline the main requisites of the third
generation models to understand whether the Dynamic Balanced Scorecard
(DBSC) presents such characteristics. With this purpose, we will also
examine the advantages deriving from the adoption of the DBSC by an
analysis of its application to a health care organization.

An Experience Using System Dynamics to Facilitate
an Insider Threat Workshop

CERT has been investigating the use of system dynamics to better understand
the threat to an ization’s information technology (IT) systems posed by
malicious employees or contractors of that organization. At the 2006
International System Dynamics Conf wep a system

model that was originally intended to be used as an interactive simulation in a
workshop on insider threat. We believed that the model and simulation would
effectively the risks and mitigations involved in the insider
threat problem. Through several pilots of the model-based workshop we
learned how to better use system dynamics modeling as the basis for
communicating complex concepts within the insider threat domain to an
audience of business and IT managers not familiar with, or interested in
becoming familiar with, system dynamics modeling. This paper describes the
MERIT model and the development and evolution of the insider threat
workshop based on this model.

An Investigation of the Innovation Performance in
the Capital Goods Sector in Colombia: Using the
System Dynamics Approach

The innovation performance of a firm is addressed using the System
Dynamics method. The problem that motivated this study is the lack of a

123

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Pal I. Davidsen
pal.davidsen@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6 7th Floor
5020 Bergen

Norway

John D. W. Morecroft
jmorecroft@ london.edu

London Business School
Regent's Park

London NW1 4SA

UK

Don R. Morris

donr.morris@ worldnet.att.net
Miami-Dade County Public Schools
1500 Biscayne Blvd Suite 225
Miami FL 33132

USA

124 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

comprehensive theory that explains both the poor innovation performance of
the Colombian industry and its scarce level of the technological capabilities.
Although there are a number of attempts to explain the problem, their causal
structures are not fully specified and their results have not been evaluated
with regard to whether they altogether constitute a coherent and consistent
theory of the underlying causes explaining the observed dynamics. Robledo’s
(1997) research on the innovation process of the Colombian capital goods
industry is examined in detail. We tested that the dynamics that Robledo
describes can be produced by the causal factors he postulates. In Colombia,
industrialists, academics and policy-makers need to do both acknowledge
innovation as a learning process and estimate the intangible benefits of R&D.

Fish and Ships — Fishery Dynamics with Bounded
Rationality

The long-term sustainability of fisheries depends on maintaining the
appropriate balance of fish and ships (or more precisely the fishing effort of
the fleet). It sounds simple, but most of the world’s fisheries are
overexploited and in danger of collapse within 40 years. In this poster session
I explore the paradox of fisheries management with a small system dynamics
model of a harvested fishery inspired by the well-known Fish Banks gaming-
simulator. The model represents the interaction of the fish stock,
regeneration, ships at sea, investment and harvesting. I illustrate bounded
fatonality and myopia in fleet investment and the resulting formulations for
an olicy. Simulations show the tendency of fish
catch to grow and then collapse. The model is extended to include regulatory
policy whose fundamental purpose is to ensure that scientific information
about the state of the fishery influences fleet deployment in such as way as to
limit fishing effort. Further simulations examine whether, and under what
circumstances, regulation can bring about sustainable and economically
viable futures for fisheries.

Egress toward a New Paradigm for the Social
Sciences and the Role of System Dynamics in It

Historians of science have identified a number of notable changes that took
place in science in the twentieth century. Among them was an increasing
emphasis on relationships and systems, on looking at things as wholes in
which every part has to be understood in relationship to the whole. Russell
Ackoff has taken the idea a step further, maintaining that this shift to a
systems perspective characterizes a transition in worldview. Viewing the
social sciences as a single paradigm currently dominated by the ideal of the
randomized experiment, this paper takes a comparative look at that transition
from the point of the p of to causal inf
From the standpoint of an example drawn from educational research,
changing methods of analysis are examined that indicate a progression away
from the restrictions imposed by the experimental model toward a process-
oriented approach. It is argued that those developments are creating an

foray s-based igm and a more
prominent role for system dynamics.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

J. Bradley Morrison
bmorriso@ brandeis.edu
Brandeis University

19 Fox Run Road

Bedford MA 01730

USA

J. Bradley Morrison
bmorriso@ brandeis.edu
Brandeis University

19 Fox Run Road

Bedford MA 01730

USA

Jenny W. Rudolph

jrudolph@ bu.edu

Boston University Sch of Public Health
Health Services Department

715 Albany Street

Boston MA 02118 USA

John Stephen Carroll
joarroll@ mitedu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
E52-563

Cambridge MA 02139 USA

Insights from Modeling the Dynamics of Process
Improvement

Process improvement takes place in the context of ongoing work, so people
usually face the dual pressure to produce output and to build capability.
Repenning and Sterman’s (2002) study of two process improvement
initiatives developed a causal loop diagram characterizing first-order
improvements which boost output from existing processes and second-order
improvements which enhance the capability of underlying processes, but the
study stopped short of building a simulating model. This paper starts from the
feedback structure they present and constructs a system dynamics model that
formalizes the critical interaction between first- and second-order
improvements as options for governing production. Analytical results
characterize the optimal tradeoff between working harder and working
smarter. However, practitioners generally must manage this tradeoff lacking
adequate knowledge of the parameter space to find the optimum. Results
demonstrate tipping points in the dynamics of process improvement, identify
perverse behaviors that are likely to thwart the good intentions of
practitioners, and show how the feedback structure of process improvement
presents challenges to agents facing the dual pressures to produce and
improve. By moving from causal loops to a simulating model, the paper also
provides an example of how formal modeling yields more nuanced
understanding.

Modeling the Dynamics of Time-pressured
Diagnostic Sensemaking

Problem solving in urgent situations challenges decision makers to make
sense of their environment and take action quickly. This paper draws on
novel data from an in-depth study of clinical problem solving in operating
room crises to develop a grounded theoretical model of diagnostic decision
making under time pressure. We develop a system dynamics model that

i the it ions among acting, interpreting cues, and cultivating
new diagnoses. The model replicates four dynamic patterns of diagnostic
sensemaking observed in the source data: stalling, fixating, vagabonding, and
adapting. We show that self-fulfilling interpretation gives rise to fixating, but
paradoxically is also crucial to adaptive sensemaking. By exploring the
critical interactions among acting, interpreting cues, and cultivating new
diagnoses, we find that generating new diagnoses quickly may be a liability
and that, in diagnostic problem solving, acting quickly can mitigate the
effects of slow interpretation. Driven by powerful reinforcing dynamics, the
effectiveness of time-pressured decision making depends on the interplay
among these p We discuss model-bas ies for mitigating the
failure modes observed in the source data.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 125

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6

5020 Bergen Norway

Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6

5020 Bergen Norway

Ante M. Munitic
amunitic@ pfst.hr
University of Split
Maritime Faculty
isko-Frankopanska 38
21000 Split Croatia

Merica SliSkovic
merica@ pfst. hr

University of Split

Faculty of Maritime Studies
Zrinsko-Frankopanska 38
21000 Split Croatia

Mirko Bilié

mirko.bilic@ pfst.hr
University of Split

Faculty of Maritime Studies
Zrinsko-Frankopanska 38
21000 Split Croatia

Marko Tomasevic
University of Split
Maritime Faculty Split
Zrinsko-Frankopanska 38
21000 Split Croatia

126 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

The unavoidable a priori, revisited, or deriving the
principles of SD

Over the years, representatives of other schools of quantitative analysis have
at times critisized the System Dynamics methodology. To investigate the
basis for such criticism, I take two advanced forms of quantitative analysis as
my starting point: optimisation under uncertainty and Bayesian statistics.
These methods can be seen as shared ideals for simplified optimisation and
estimation techniques. It turns out that for an important class of dynamic
problems, System Dynamics can be seen as consistent with the advance
methods, and as an economical way to perform advanced policy analysis.

Green tax, trucker actions, media coverage,
misperception and political reversal

During the winter of 2000, truckers blocked the main roads in and out of the
Norwegian capital Oslo. The main cause was low profitability in the
business, and the reason for that was claimed to be a steady increase in the
environmental tax on diesel oil the preceding five years. As a consequence,
the politicians removed the tax. When doing so, some politicians neglected
the philosophical ground of being for their parties, and a majority of them
ignored Kyoto Treaty obligations and stated preferences for green taxes. In
this paper, I claim that all this happened because: Voters, media and policy
makers do not quantify their arguments. Their focus is on actions rather than
causes. Adam Smith’s invisible hand is still "invisible’. There seems to be no
institution readily available to correct misperceptions.

System dynamics continuous modelling of
endangered systems

Although large developed System dynamics model can be applied on
different ecological system in this paper it is applied on Kastela region in
Croatia. The Computer Simulation Submodel of The Ecological Regional
Subsystem of the "KASTELA BAY" is an extra relevant submodel of The
System Dynamics Computer Simulation Model of the “KASTELA BAY”
which has been developed with the help of System Dynamics. It is, in its
essence, a continuous model because it is presented as a system of non-linear
differential equations. At the same time, it is a discrete model, because it is
presented as a system of linear differential equations (System Dynamics
DYNAMO - software package). Its DT (length of intervening time =
computation interval) is chopped in full accordance with the Sampling
Theorem (Shannon and Koteljnikov). The System Dynamics Computer
Simulation Model of the "Kastela Bay" also employs certain experience
gathered by experts who had worked on the preparation of projects: "Blue
Plan" and "The Meth-odological Basis for the Scenario of the Management of
Natural Resources of the "Kastela Bay"" (1991).

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Sara Nazzari

sarahnazzari@ gmail.com

Sharif University of Technology

14 Amir Soori Alley East Sth Floor
Zafaranieh St

Tehran Iran

Hamid Foroughi

hamidforoughi@ yahoo.com

Sharif University of Technology
Graduate School of Mgt and Economics
Azadi Avenue

11365 Tehran Iran

Ehsan Nikoofar
ehsan.nikoofar@ gmail.com

Isfahan University of Technology
Industrial & System Engineering
Isfahan Iran

Hamed Tarkesh Isfanahi
tarkesh@ cc.iut.ac.ir

Isfahan University of Technology
Isfahan 84156 Iran

Jamshid Parvizian
jparvizian@ gmail.com

Isfahan University of Technology
Dept of Industrial Engineering
Isfahan 8415683111 Iran

Camilo Olaya

colaya@ uniandes.edu.co

Universidad de los Andes
Departamento de Ingenieria Industrial
Calle 19 A No 1-37 Este

Bogota Colombia

Fabio Andrés Diaz
fa-diaz@ uniandes.edu.co
Universidad de los Andes
Calle 19A 1-37 Este

Dpto de Ingenieria Industrial
Bogota Colombia

Organization’s Changes Through its Lifecycle; A
System Dynamics Approach

Many scholars have used organizational life cycle theory to explain

d in organizations. Each has stages of organi
development from a specific perspective by unique sets of organizational
characteristics. For example, Queen (1983) focused on changes in
organizational structure or Mintzberg (1984) emphasized on Power
perspective. So in most of the models, only some attributes are discussed to
be able to cope with the complexity of change. As a result, the relationship
between these attributes is not vividly discussed. In this paper, we tried to
extract some of the key attributes of organizations which cause the change
from the literature and concentrated on the relationship between them.
Resting on this approach, we were able to look at organizational change as a
continuous process which is caused by the mutual relationship between
different attributes. A fter recognizing the feedback loops that shape the
behavior of organizations through their life cycle, we simulated it with
system dynamics tools. Since in different situations and presumption
organizations may encounter different barriers to growth, which are referred
as crises, we developed our model for different scenarios. This way, it is
possible to view the dynamics of organization’s changes in its lifecycle.

Rise of a New Player in the Competitive
Telecommunication Market: Case study of Iran

Mobile communication is one of the most important market segments in the
telecommunication market. This rapidly growing market is going to have
2,776 million subscribers by the end of the first quarter of 2007. Iran plans to
expand the mobile communication network. One of the key steps was to
share the monopolized market with a “Second Operator”. This will be start of
a competition era in the Iranian mobile market. This paper provides a system
dynamics model to predict the interactions and competition of the two main
mobile service providers. Equilibrium is possible in which the older provider
can only survive if the market grows fast enough and the cost decreases. The
model is an example of emerge of a new player into the environment.

Towards a System Dynamics Model of De Soto’s
Theory on Informal Economy

This paper presents the first phase of a work in progress which aims at
building a System Dynamics simulation model of the theory of the Peruvian
economist Hernando De Soto. This theory proposes that the explanation for
the fail of capitalism in Latin America should be looked in the informal
sector of the region. The complete project will develop a full model for
testing and complementing such a claim. This first phase presented here
builds the platform for this endeavor; it briefly introduces the theory of De
Soto and underlines its relevance and suitability for a System Dynamics
approach; the article also connects the claims of the theory with the modeling

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 127

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Santiago Caicedo

caicedos@ gmail.com

Universidad de los Andes

Calle 19A 1-37 Este

Departamento de Ingenieria Industrial
Bogota Colombia

Gerard O'Reilly

goreilly@ alcatel-lucent.com

Bell Laboratories Alcatel-Lucent

101 Crawfords Corner Rd Room 4401
Holmdel NJ 07733

USA

Rene LeClaire

rl@ lanl. gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663

Los Alamos NM 87545

USA

Chris White
whitec@ alcatel-lucent.com
Bell Laboratories

Alan Weiss
apdoo@ apdoo.org

Nathaniel Osgood

nosgood@ mit.edu

University of Saskatchewan

Computer Science Dpt 280.6 Thorvaldson
110 Science Place

Saskatoon SK S7N 5C9 Canada

128 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

language of System Dynamics, presenting the main structures of the
simulation model and a further link with path dependence patterns. Finally,
from this discussion, the article delineates the next steps to be taken.

High Level Internet Modeling

This paper presents a hierarchical internet model suitable for simulating the
impact of a localized physical disaster on the Internet within a typical
metropolitan area. This first order model reports internet availability as the
ratio of offered to car-ried traffic. We compute the carried traffic by
examining the fraction of offered network traffic which flows through
potentially impaired network entities. The impact of a physical disruption on
a network entity reduces the carried traffic by the fraction of traffic which
passes through that entity. The model is fully parameterized with respect to
application properties (locality, latency, bandwidth, etc.) and connections to
other infrastructure models (electric, phone, etc.). We also present a
simplified system dynamics representation of this model using Vensim.

Lightening the Performance Burden of Individual-
Based Models through Dimensional Analysis and
Scale Modeling

While individual-based models are attractive for addressing certain types of
modeling problems, such models impose (frequently dramatically) higher
performance costs for larger populations. Lengthy simulation times inhibit
interactive learning, and — given limited modeler time — can impose higher
opportunity costs by limiting model comprehension, refinement and user
interaction. This paper proposes the novel use of dimensional analysis and
scale modeling — which have long played an important role in understanding
physical systems — to lessen the performance barriers associated with
simulation of individual-based models. Given a dimensionally homogeneous
(“full-scale”) simulation model with a large population, we propose a precise,
rigorous, ic and g -purpose ique to formulate a “reduced-
scale” individual-based model that simul. a smaller populati
Measurements made of particular output parameters of such reduced-scale
models can then be precisely transformed (in accordance with model scaling
laws) to yield comparable results for a full-scale model — without the need to
run the full-scale model. While discretization effects limit the degree of
scaling that can be achieved, these techniques are notable in relying only
upon di h ity of the full-scale model, and on not the
specifics of model behavior or use of a particular mathematical framework.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Nathaniel Osgood

nosgood@ mit.edu

University of Saskatchewan

Computer Science Dpt 280.6 Thorvaldson
110 Science Place

Saskatoon SK S7N 5C9

Canada

Leeza Osipenko
Losipenko@ warwick.ac.uk
University of Warwick
Medical School

Gibbet Hill Rd
Coventry CV47AL UK

Using Traditional and Agent-Based Toolsets for
System Dynami

In its first 50 years, System Dynamics has evolved a rich set of modeling and
analysis tools providing support for declarative, graphical specification of
state equation models, with many features for analysis, calibration, and
visualization. Many System Dynamicists are now using Agent Based
modeling packages, which offer very different feature sets from traditional
System Dynamics tools. The many differences between these two tool
traditions have made many modelers uncertain about which toolset is most
appropriate for their needs. This paper analyzes differences between existing
traditional System Dynamics and Agent Based tools, and discusses their
impact on model quality attributes such as transparency, performance, and
accuracy. Our analysis finds that there is room for each tool tradition to
benefit by adopting features of the other. Looking forward, we argue that
both traditions are likely to converge on support for features presently

supported by just one tradition, i ing hybrid time and
states, declarative mathematical specification, modular composition,
metadata and di and expl

y
visualization. We believe that there will remain excellent reasons use a wide
spectrum of model granularities, and argue competitive modeling packages
will provide rich support for everything from extremely individual-level to
aggregate models and multi-scale hybrids.

Management of RhD-negative Pregnancies: Do New
Technologies Make a Difference?

In this work we are modelling the management process of RhD negative
pregnancies. The current practice is based on the use of anti-D as a
prophylactic measure to prevent iti of ies by
the mother against fetal blood type). RhD NIPD is a diagnostic test designed
to improve management of RhD negative pregnancies and to make the usage
of anti-D prophylaxis more efficient. Despite the latter benefit, the need for
the RhD NIPD technology introduction into clinical practice at the population
level is questionable. This test is a technology-push product rather than a
market-driven development and is characterised by high implementation
costs and no clinical impact on the decrease of sensitisations and HDFN
(haemolytic disease of fetus and newborn) cases in countries where antenatal
anti-D is implemented. However, scientists argue the importance of this test
in clinical practice. We employ systems thinking and simulation modelling to
assess the potential and the impact of this test. This work describes the

of a game si for clini and poli kers. We hope it
will serve as a useful decision-making tool for evaluation of RhD NIPD
adoption scenarios.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 129

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Peter A. Otto
ottop@ dowling.edu
Dowling College

410 Terrace Road
Schenectady NY 12306
USA

Martin Simon
sim@ bluewin.ch
ipgroup
Ruetistrasse 4
CH-8126 Zumikon
Switzerland

Gints Ozolins
gints_ozolins@ hotmail.com
University of Latvia
Avotu Str 6-29

Riga LV 1011

Latvia

Juris Roberts Kalnins
simts@ latnet.lv

Social Technology Institute
Ozolciema 24/1-13

Riga LV 1058

Latvia

Ozge Pala

o.pala@ fm.ru.nl

Radboud University Nijmegen

School of Management

Th van Aquinostraat 1.2.2 PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen

The Netherlands

Structural Interventions in Electronic Networks of
Practice: A Dynamic Grid/Group Model of Growth
and Decline.

Electronic networks of practice can help an organizations discover and share
knowledge more effectively by facilitating learning both from within the
organization as well as from entities outside the organization. In those
instances where firms have linkages with outside organizations, however, the
acquisition and sharing of knowledge takes place free from the constraints of
hierarchy and local rules. These networks can be characterized as loosely
structured, and generally self-organizing, which are made up of individuals
who voluntarily participate in the creation and sharing of knowledge.
Building networks without formal boundaries is a challenging task for any
organization. This is because those responsible for building them must not
only have to encourage the use of the new tools, but also refrain from
intervening too often. The objective of this paper is to conceptualize a
simulation model, with which we can test the effects of structural
interventions in electronic network of practice. Simulation results indicate
that: (a) too much structure (rules, regulations, and group commitment) can
result in a decline of network attractiveness; (b) lack of structural
interventions can lead to a network that only attracts those people who prefer
an environment without any form of control.

Agricultural Production and Income Dynamics in
Latvia

In this study we use system dynamics to evaluate possible development
scenarios of agricultural sector in Latvia. Growth and balancing forces of
agricultural ic are i along with ics of capital, land
and labor allocation. Resource stocks are considered from two perspectives:
a) breakdown between crop and livestock farming activities b) allocation
between ial and self- i farms. Total prod output and
per-capita income of the population employed in the sector are chosen as key
development indicators. Impact and efficiency of public support policies for
agriculture are discussed.

Effects of Causal Loop Diagrams on Escalating
Commitment

Previous research suggests that decision makers have the tendency to keep on
investing in losing courses of action. The present study focuses on de-
escalation and proposes causal loop diagrams as a technique to decrease
escalating commitment in a failing action. The effectiveness of causal loop

130 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Dirk Vriens

d.vriens@ fm.ru.nl

Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van Aquinostraat 1
PO Box 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen

The Netherlands

Jac A. M. Vennix

jvennix@ fm.ru.nl

Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van Aquinostraat 1
PO Box 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen

The Netherlands

Jung-Yeon Park
rose_park@ naver.com
KEPRI

103-16 Munji-Dong
Yuseong-Gu

Daejeon 305-380 Korea

Namsung Ahn

nsahn@ kepri.re.kr

Korea Electric Power Research Inst
106-16 Munji-Dong Yusung-Gu
305-380 Dae Jeon City Korea

Yong-Beum Yoon
ybyoon@ kepri.re.kr
KEPRI

Daejeon Korea

Kyung-ho Koh
laputa@ hanmail.net
KEPRI

Derek W. Bunn
London Business School
Sussex Place Regents Park
London NW1 4SA UK

Howard Passell
hdpasse@ sandia gov

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 0735
Albuquerque NM 87185 USA

Will Peplinski

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1350
Albuquerque NM 87185 USA

Leonard A. Malezynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories

1515 Eubank SE

Albuquerque NM 87123-1350 USA

diagrams is also contrasted with the effect of receiving a list of important
factors. Causal loop diagrams were found to decrease commitment as
compared to having no decision aid. However, no significant difference was
found between causal loop diagrams and a list of important factors as a de-
escalation technique.

Investment Incentives in the Korean Electricity
Market

This paper develops a model-based analysis of the effects of various capacity
incentive systems on new investment in the Korean electricity market. The
restructuring process in Korea allocated power generation to six firms,
competing within a wholesale market, albeit strictly on a cost basis. Because
of this cost-based pool, capacity pay were also i to

new investment. However, it is an open question whether the current fixed
capacity payment scheme is enough to secure resource adequacy and
consideration is being given to alternative mechanisms such as the use of
LOLP. Using a detailed market simulation model, based on system dynamics,
we compare these approaches in terms of how they may influence the
investors’ decisions and thereby determine the system reserve margin. The
simulation results suggest that there may be serious problems is staying with
the current fixed capacity payments in order to achieve resource adequacy. In
contrast an LOLP based capacity mechanism may, in the longer term,
increase the reserve margin compared to a fixed capacity payment. More
generally, this paper indicates how crucial the effective modeling of the
investment behavior of the independent power producers is for adequate
policy support, even if they only constitute a fringe in a substantially
centrally influenced market.

Modeling for Sensitivity Analysis in Endangered
Fish Species Management

Mi species populations is a complex task demanding
of ki across many di: spatial and temporal

scales, and ranges of human impacts. Computer simulation models can be

useful in these efforts. We describe an ecosys level model for si i

population dynamics of the Rio Grande Silvery Minnow (RGSM;
Hybognathus amarus) in the Rio Grande of central New Mexico. The model
includes numerous variables which can be set by the user for different and in
many cases uncertain minnow life history traits, impacts on mortality, and
environmental conditions. Sensitivity analyses were conducted on the
model’s output as a way of testing the robustness of the model, gaining
insights into RGSM population dynamics, and identifying important data

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 131

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Marty Ennis

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1350
Albuquerque NM 87185 USA

Kalyan S. Pasupathy
pasupathyk@ missouri.edu
University of Missouri

Department of Health Management & Info

324 Clark Hall
Columbia MO 65211
USA

Kostas Triantis
triantis@ vtedu

Virginia Tech

3300 North 17th Street
Arlington VA 22201
USA

Oleg V. Pavlov

opavlov@ wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd

Worcester MA 01609 USA

Robert K. Plice

rplice@ mail.sdsu.edu

San Diego State University

San Diego CA 92182-8234 USA

Nigel Melville

npmelv@ umich.edu

University of Michigan

Stephen M. Ross School of Business
Ann Arbor MI 48109-1234 USA

Matteo Pedercini
matteois@ hotmail.com
Millennium Institute

2200 Wilson Blvd Ste 650
Arlington VA 22201

USA

Siaka Sanogo
sasiaka@ yahoo.fr
Direction Nationale
Republique du Mali

132 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

gaps. The model returned bi i results with
currently limited ing of RGSM population d ics. Some results
were completely predictable (e.g., good fertility and mortality data are the
most important variables for understanding population dynamics), and some
offered useful insights (e.g., current captive release programs may have little
impact on long term population dynamics, but may prevent short term
extinction).

Investments in Operational Attributes and Impact
on Outcomes in Training Services

The service industry has grown considerably in the last century and
i in op i imp have i d. Op i
investments decisions have a huge impact on the profitability of the
organization not only at present but also in the future affecting the
sustainability of the organization. The service-profit chain is a framework
that brings together several components in the service delivery process.
Evaluations of service operations based on the service-profit chain and others
have taken a static approach without any consideration to the feedback
structure. We develop a system dynamics model to evaluate the impact of
number of courses offered on profitability of training services. This is
accomplished by incorporating an optimization structure using the hill-
climbing algorithm. The results from the simulation are then discussed along
with validation of the model.

A Communication Model with Limited
Information-Processing Capacity of Recipients

This paper offers a computational model of profit-driven communication,
when information-p ing capacity of reci is limited. Even though
the model was inspired by the present situation in the direct online marketing
industry, it has a wide applicability. In the model, profit-seeking
communication firms exploit freely-available attention of recipients, while
recipients allocate their limited cognitive capacity between competing tasks.
We run numerical experiments to test various technical, market and
regulatory proposals that aim at improving the social outcome. The paper
makes a theoretical contribution to the economic literature and it also
elucidates the current public policy debate about direct online marketing
industry.

Threshold21 Mali: System Dynamics-based
national development planning in Mali

This paper describes how the Threshold21 Model developed for the
Government of Mali has been used to support the preparation of the five-year
strategic plan for the country. The model proven useful at different levels in
the planning process: (1) it enabled testing the coherence of data collected;
(2) provided insights into the future development of current issues and the
emergence of new challenges in the Business-As-Usual scenario; (3)

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Karounga Camara
ckarounga@ yahoo fr
Direction Nationale
Republique du Mali

Matteo Pedercini
matteois@ hotmail.com
Millennium Institute

2200 Wilson Blvd Ste 650
Arlington VA 22201 USA

Birgit Kopainsky
birgitkopainsky@ flury-giuliani.ch
University of Bergen
Fosswinckelsgate 6

5007 Bergen Norway

Pal I. Davidsen
pal.davidsen@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6 7th Floor
5020 Bergen Norway

Stephen Alessi
steve-alessi@ uiowa.edu
University of lowa

370 Lindquist Center
Towa City IA 52242 USA

Gloria Pérez Salazar
gloria.perez@ itesm.mx
Tecnologico de Monterrey

Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
‘Av Eugenio Garza Sada 2501 Sur

64849 Monterrey NL
Mexico

Karla Verénica Cabrera
Tecnologico de Monterrey

Vissalia Gpe. Miramontes
Tecnologico de Monterrey

Manuel Alejandro Godoy
Tecnologico de Monterrey

Carlos Scheel
cscheel@ itesm.mx
Tecnologico de Monterrey

Ave Eugenia Garza Sada 2501 Sur
Colonia Tecnologico CP 64849

Monterrey Nuevo Leon
Mexico

supported the discussion of alternative policies and development paths; and
(4) provided a basis for monitoring and evaluation of implemented policies.
This paper reports of the use of the model at levels (2) and (3), describing
how it enabled an open discussion on the critical assumptions for economic
growth to be used in the strategic plan, and on the delays involved in the
country’s growth process. Results from the model have been eventually
incorporated in the national strategic plan.

Blending planning and learning for national
development

National development planning is a decision process at the central
government level that defines the strategic plan for a country’s long-term
development. The System Dynamics Group at the University of Bergen in
collaboration with Millennium Institute and the University of Iowa is
developing an interactive learning environment for national development
planning. BLEND is the acronym for Bergen Learning Environment for
National Development. BLEND is a networked computer learning

i that a for real planning settings where
policy makers play roles in a simulated government. The simulation model
underlying BLEND is based on Millennium Institute’s Threshold 21 model
(121) which has so far been applied in over 20 countries. T2] is a rather large
model with a high level of detail. There is, however, ample evidence that
learning environments are more effective when the models are simplified.
The purpose of this paper is therefore to identify the key learning goals that
BLEND has to address. Based on these we develop a simplified version of
T21 that exhibits a lower level of detail and eliminates non-fundamental
structural components.

Nemak: A look in to the future using a Dynamic
Balanced Scorecard

Nemak, a Mexican enterprise devoted to the production of engine cylinder
heads and blocks a market leader on the industry, tries to identify critical
external factors to gain competitive advantage as well as to understand their
influence on its overall performance in order to face the challenges of the
global economy. This paper presents the use of Balanced Scorecard based on
a System Dynamics model that intends to be a decision-making tool for the
company. The model is able to generate behavior trends on several different
scenarios.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 133

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Gloria Pérez Salazar
gloria.perez@ itesm.mx

Tecnologico de Monterrey

Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
Av Eugenio Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL Mexico

Carlos Scheel

cscheel@ itesm.mx

Tecnologico de Monterrey

Ave Eugenia Garza Sada 2501 Sur
Colonia Tecnologico CP 64849
Monterrey Nuevo Leon Mexico

Maria Angélica Martinez Medina
angelica.martinez@ itesm.mx

Tecnologico de Monterrey

156 Derrywood Dr

Vaughan ON L4K 5$3 Canada

Alessandro Persona

persona@ gest.unipd.it

University of Padua

Dept of Management and Engineering
Stradella $ Nicola 3

36100 Vicenza Italia

Fabio Sgarbossa
fabio.sgarbossa@ unipd.it
University of Padova

Achievements teaching Systems Thinking and
Systems Dynamics to Graduate students through e-
learning

This paper shows a course design and its knowledge transfer process when
teaching the changing paradigm of systems thinking, systems dynamics and
simulation, through e-learning. The course uses the methodology for
changing the analytical approach to the Systems dynamics thinking paradigm
-in three months-; and was designed under the “thought on-line” approach.
Action research method is used to observe the course evolution and to
evaluate: new knowledge, skills developed by students and student’s
improvements on the changing paradigm. This is an on-going research; we
present preliminary results about the achievements up-to-date. Even that ST,
SD and simulation are difficult topics, they can be successfully taught on the
right e-learning environment. We can state that, teaching this kind of topics
can result in a good learning experience for students. These results can
contribute to broadcast the e-learning experience to other related topics.

The Logistic Game®

Abstract The aim of this paper is to describe an innovative Logistic Game®
developed by the authors. It creates a competition between different teams in
terms of strategic decisions in logistic and p ion p in areal
production system. The game is innovative in three ways. The first is the type
of game. It is a game representing a production and logistic system, with the
dynamic problems of a real system where, with finite resources, decisions
have a relevant impact on performance. The second is the application of a

Dept of and E
Stradella San Nicola 3
36100 Vicenza Italy

Maurizio Faccio

maurizio.faccio@ unipd.it

University of Padua

Dept of Management and Engineering
Stradella San Nicola 3

36100 Vicenza Italy

Daria Battini

daria battini@ unipd it

University of Padova

Dept of Management and Engineering
Stradella San Nicola 3

36100 Vicenza Italy

Willem Geert Phaff
h.w.g.phaff@ tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Fac of Technology Policy and Mgt
Jaffalaan 5

2628 DE Delft

The Netherlands

134 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

package to create the real scenario in which the competition
develops, with the possibility to consider all factors (WIP, down times, line
balancing, skills of person, etc). The third is its possible applications, since
the game can be used not only as an educative facility, but also as a tool to
assess the management skills of a future/present manager to face real and
dynamic logistic problems.

Visualising the Effects of Non-linearity by Creating
Dynamic Causal Diagrams
Even though non-linearity is said to drive the behaviour of system dynamics

models, modellers do not have access to tecl that show this happ
The tools at their disposal to present model structure are powerful, but, by

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jill H. Slinger

j.h.slinger@ tbm.tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5

2628 BX Delft

Netherlands

Michael Phelan
michael.phelan@ ucd.ie
University College Dublin
Room D102A Building D
Carysfort Avenue Blackrock
Dublin Ireland

Sean McGarraghy
sean.megarraghy@ ucd.ie

University College Dublin
Management Information Systems
Quinn School of Business
Belfield Dublin 4 Ireland

Larry Phillips

larry.phillips@ gd-ais.com

Univ of Maryland University College
2826 Thicket Way

Olney MD 20832

USA

Suzette Johnson
suzette johnson@ essexcorp.com
University of Maryland

Jim Brinksma
james.brinksma@ gs.com
University of Maryland

Ed Zelinski
edward.zelinski@ ngc.com
University of Maryland

Kawika Pierson
kawika@ mitedu

MIT

235 Memorial Drive #207A
Cambridge MA 02139
USA

nature, static. Formal model analysis methods has made significant progress
in explaining how structure drives behaviour, but the connection to standard
model isation iques have generally not yet been made. This
paper presents work that links the results of recent formal model analysis

ste to traditi p E : Ay :
visualisation tool is used to create dynamic causal diagrams that display the
changing influences of the elements of model structure over a simulation run;
it shows the waxing and waning of the influence of different sets of loops.

Mitigating the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains
using Grammatical Evolution

This research introduces a relatively new evolutionary algorithm in computer
science; Grammatical Evolution (GE), to the field of supply chain dynamics
and bullwhip mitigation. As a proof of concept several experiments are
conducted to derive optimal ordering policies for agents in a multi-tier supply
chain. These results are compared with existing research using Genetic
Algorithms (GA) to derive optimal ordering policies using similar
simulations. This paper shows that GE can consistently discover the optimal
ordering policies similar to the GA approach, and that in several experiments
GE outperforms GA.

Is Layered Disaster Response Effective: An
Analysis of Communications Problems during
Natural Disaster

This paper specifically focuses on the impact of communications failures and
information delays on timely decision-making during the initial Response
Phase to a natural disaster. A comparison of the initial response efforts to
Hurricanes Andrew (August 1992) and Katrina (August 2005), using both
systems dynamics and systems thinking approaches was conducted in an
attempt to better ications and izati decisi
making in crisis situations. All work on this paper was done by a group of
doctoral students at University of Maryland University College between
September 12th and November 18th, 2005. Since that time, several of the
recommendations identified in this paper have become points of discussion in
the ongoing national debate on how to improve response to disasters such as
Hurricane Katrina. No updating of this paper has been done to reflect
emergent concerns as analysis of the response to Katrina continues within the
federal government.

Modeling Decision Making Biases in the Context of
a Market

The effects of two behavioral decision making biases are evaluated within the
context of a system dynamics model of a market for a commodity,

overconfidence and availability. Overconfidence is modeled as an increase in
the percent of a trader’s capital they are willing to commit to any trade and is

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 135

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Angele Pieters
angele pieters@ uvt.nl
Tilburg University

3 ics and Business
PO Box 90153
5000 LE Tilburg
The Netherlands

Arie Franx
ariefranx@ planet.nl

St Elisabeth Hospital
Hilvarenbeekseweg 60.
5022 GC Tilburg

The Netherlands

Henk A. Akkermans

ha@ uvt.nl

Tilburg University

Dept Information Systems & Management
PO Box 90153

5000 LE Tilburg

The Netherlands

Erik Pruyt

erik pruyt@ vub.ac.be

Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

Erik Pruyt

erik pruyt@ vub.ac.be

Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

found to have the effect of increasing profits for traders with good
information relative to traders with poor information, as well as increasing
the volatility of the returns for traders with good information more than for
traders with poor information. The Availability Bias is modeled as a
overweighting of information easily available to a trader and is found to have
the effect of increasing the returns of traders with good information easily
available to them and decreasing the returns of traders with poor information
easily available.

E pluribus unum: Using group model building with
many interdependent organizations to create
integrated health care networks

This paper reports on an action research case study of integrated obstetric
care in the Netherlands. Efficient and patient-friendly patient flows through
integrated care networks are of major societal importance. How to design and
develop such inter-organizational patient flows is still a nascent research
area. We have shown that a modification of an existing method to support
inter-organizati t ion by system d. ics based group model
building (the Renga method (Akkermans 2001)) may be effective in
achieving such collaboration. At the time writing, the action research project
that this paper reports upon is still ongoing, but so far, perceived results are
promising.

The EU-25 Power Sector: a System Dynamics
Model of Competing Electricity Generation
Technologies

The main goal of this paper is to explore -using a system dynamics model of
the EU-25 electricity generation sector- the transition of the EU-25 electricity
generation system towards a more sustainable system characterised by much
lower CO2 emissions. The system dynamics model and the resulting
dynamics are explored by means of base case simulations, policy simulations,
scenario analyses and (univariate and multivariate) sensitivity analyses.
Finally, some Lusi ex-post criticisms and directions for future
research are discussed.

Combining System Dynamics and Ethics: Towards
More Science?

In this paper, ethics is discussed in relation to system dynamics. The domain
of ethics is very broad which is why we will first of all demarcate what is
meant by ethics here. Then, we will discuss the importance of ethics for the
domain of system dynamics and where it could come into play. Calls for,

136 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jan H. Kwakkel
j-h-kwakkel@ tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Postbus 5015

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

Erik Pruyt

erik pruyt@ vub.ac.be

Delft University of Technology
PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

Michael Quigley

m.quigley@ salford.ac.uk

University of Salford

6 Cortie Street

Little Hulton Manchester M38 9WG UK

Andrew Fleming

aj fleming@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford
SCRI Centre
Bridgewater Building
Salford M7 INU UK

Brian C. Dangerfield
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford

Salford Business School CORAS
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford MS 4WT UK

James Rhys Kearney
j.rkearney@ pgr salford.ac.uk
University of Salford
292B Stretford Road
Manchester M15 STN UK

Muhammad Azeem Qureshi
muhammad.qureshi@ student.uib.no
University of Bergen

Krabbedalen 69B

5178 Loddefjord Bergen

Norway

mentions of, and applications of ethics in the system dynamics literature will
then be reviewed, followed by a discussion of possible contributions of the
explicit consideration of ethics to the domain of system dynamics and of
system dynamics to the domain of ethics. Two examples will be discussed:

i ”, Then, some advantages and
disadvantages of combining ethics and system dynamics will be discussed.
And finally, possible ways to deal with ethics in system dynamics will
furthermore be proposed in the concluding section.

Dealing with Uncertainty? Combining System
Dynamics with Multicriteria Decision Analysis or
with Exploratory Modelling

This paper discusses how system dynamics allows to deal with uncertainty,
risk, robustness, resilience and flexibility, and how this could be improved.
Two venues for improving the capacity of system dynamics to deal with
uncertainty, risk, robustness, resilience and flexibility are provided, in both
cases by matching system dynamics with other method(ologie)s, more
precisely with discontinuous multiple criteria decision analysis and with
exploratory modelling.

System Dynamics Modelling of Competing UK
Construction Firms

Although competitiveness is a widely used word in the construction industry,
with past papers modelling competitive behaviour (Drew, 1997; Katsanis,
1995), there is considerable variance in both the definition and context of this
term. As part of a 3-year multi-institutional research project, referred to as
‘The Big Ideas’, Salford University is using the System Dynamics (SD)
methodology to model the competitiveness of construction firms. The

s of a firm is rep ina‘ ive index’ (CI), which
is an 1 amalgamation of elements that impact upon a firms perceived
competitiveness. By incorporating the CI into a SD model firms will be able
to increase their understanding of the possible impact their possible actions
may have on their petitiveness. This paper nes
definitions, when used as a business idiom, and how this is related toa firm’ Ss
capabilities. The SD methodology has then been used to quantify and model
firms’ competitiveness.

System Dynamics Modeling of Public Expenditure
and Human Development - A Case of Pakistan
This study develops a system dynamics model to estimate population,

primary education rate and access to basic health care given exogenous gross
domestic product (GDP) and public spending on education and health to

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 137

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Muhammad Azeem Qureshi
muhammad.qureshi@ student.uib.no
University of Bergen

Krabbedalen 69B

5178 Loddefjord Bergen

Norway

Jaziar Radianti
jaziar.radianti@ hia.no

Agder University College

Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509

NO-4898 Grimstad Norway

Jose J. Gonzalez

jose.j.gonzalez@ hia.no

Agder University College

Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509

NO-4898 Grimstad Norway

138 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

examine the impact of public expenditure on human development i in
Pakistan. It predicts p path of f ion, primary and
access to basic health care. The results show that high economic growth may
not result into better human development indicators. On the contrary, high
spending on education and health will improve human development
indicators even if the economy grows at a relatively lower rate. It suggests a
threshold of 3% of sustained economic growth rate as a pre-requisite to plan
for human development in Pakistan. With that in place this paper suggests
anchoring of public policy to human development by allocating more public
funds for human development. Key Words: Human Development, Public
Policy, Public Expenditure, System Dynamics.

System Dynamics Modeling of Sustainable Food
Security in Pakistan

This study develops a system dynamics based simulation model to
understand dynamics of food security of Pakistan assuming exogenous GDP.
The management of sustainable food security in Pakistan is based on the
available agricultural land, size of its population and productivity of the
factors of production. The natural endowment of agricultural land in use will
decrease over time limiting food supply in Pakistan. Increased productivity of
land and labor through education and technology may help improve situation.
On the other hand, the sheer size of the population will worsen the food
security situation. The simulation results suggest that economic growth rate
of 4.75% or more coupled with high public spending on human development,
higher than current levels of 2% on education and 1% on health, is a must for
sustainable food security in Pakistan. Such an economic growth rate and
commitment to human development will not only improve human
development indicators but will also ensure sustainable food security.
However, one critical finding is that Pakistan may not be able to provide the
threshold calories to its population required for a healthy living. This clearly
suggests persistent prevalence of malnutrition even though it may reduce
over time.

A Preliminary Model of the Vulnerability Black
Market

The emergence of vulnerability black markets enhances the opportunities for
malicious actors to launch exploits toward computer networks, to commit
cyber-crime and to perform other unlawful activities. Asymmetric
information, inadequate software testing, lack of incentive to improve quality
of the software are presumed to be the most important grounds of the
software vulnerability problems. This work is a preliminary model to build a
structure that may explain the factors influencing the emergence of
vulnerability black market and to simulate undesired consequences from
desired effect to eliminate software vulnerabilities. The purpose of the
research is to provide better understanding for information security
community about the dynamic features of the software vulnerability and the
ity black market p

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Michael J. Radzicki
mjradz@ wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Dept of Social Science and Policy
100 Institute Road

Worcester MA 01609-2280 USA

Martin Rafferty
rafferm@ Isbu.ac.uk

London South Bank University
103 Borough Road

London SE1 0AA

UK

Kk. Raman
ramank0@ yahoo.com

43 Alderwood Drive
West Hartford CT 06117
USA

T. V. Rajan

Univ of Connecticut Health Center
Farmington CT 06032

USA

In Defense of System Dynamics: A Response to
Professor Hayden

In a 2006 paper in the Journal of Economic. Issues, Professor Gregory |
Hayden argued that system d. ics is an inad tool for the
institutional systems principles of hierarchy, feedback and openness. The
purpose of this paper is to show that Professor Hayden’s claims are, for the
most part, misguided and, in some instances, patently incorrect. Moreover,
we will reinforce the view that ining system ics with

economics can be a very powerful approach to heterodox economic analysis.

Reductionism, Holism and System Dynamics

The objective of this paper is to examine the concepts of holism and
reductionism as they relate to System Dynamics (SD) and to a lesser extent
Systems Thinking (ST) then to relate the findings of that examination to
some of the disillusionment with SD and the resultant lack of commercial
take up. This paper looks at the concepts of Reductionism and Holism as
applied throughout the literature in a broad range of academic areas from
medicine and philosophy to physics and looks at different definitions of
holism, and reductionism. Practical applications of Reductionist and Holistic
principles are examined. From this analysis the fundamental nature of SD as
a Holistic/Reductionist methodology is deduced and differentiated from the
more generally holistic nature of ST. From this basis the conclusion that SD
is a reductionist methodology in practice, though not necessarily described as
such by practitioners, is postulated. The paper recommends that there be
further work carried out in the field of theoretical and practical holism and
greater awareness of these issues within the practitioner community. Within
the conclusions there is a pointer for some further fundamental areas of work.

Disease Modeling with Application to Parasite-
borne Diseases

System Dynamics provides a suitable framework for modeling diseases that
can bring together biological, epidemiological, clinical, and public health
issues in a manageable way. In this paper, we discuss models for the
and of parasite-borne diseases which involve a

primary host (e.g. a human), a vector(e.g. a mosquito), and a parasite . The
models discussed here are being applied to different diseases; this paper will
refer primarily to results for filaria. We first examine models for the biology
of the disease in a vector and in a host, and for disease transmission between
two humans through a vector. We then discuss a model for disease

ission in a popul of vectors ing with a population of hosts.
We examine the effect of different control strategies, including preventive
measures as well as treatment, and also possible effects of changes in the
environment. We point out some of the complexities inherent in the
biological processes, and the variability resulting from change in the values
of the parameters in the system.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 139

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jorgen Randers
jorgen.randers@ bi.no

Norwegian School of Management
Abbedisvingen 6

N-0280 Oslo

Norway

Ulrich Goliike
goluke@ blue-way.net
Hoertensteinerstr 1
86911 Diessen
Germany

Eliot Rich

rich@ acm.org

University at Albany

Dept of Info Technology Management
1400 Washington Avenue BA-310
Albany NY 12222 USA

Mark R. Nelson

mnelson@ nacs.org

National Association of College Stores
500 East Lorain Street

Oberlin OH 44074 USA

Andrew Whitmore
ajw367@ gmail.com
University at Albany

911 Central Avenue #164
Albany NY 12206 USA

Donald Robadue
don@ robadue.com

Coastal Resources Center
722 South Road
Wakefield RI 02879
USA

Raul del Moral Simanek

11319@ prodigy.netmx

Universidad Autonoma Baja California
Facultad de Ciencias Marinas

Apdo Postal 453

Ensenada CP 22800

México

140 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Forecasting Turning Points in Shipping Freight
Rates — Lessons from 30 Years of Practical Effort

We argue that it is possible to explain much of the history of the world’s
shipping markets since 1950 as the interaction of two balancing feedback
loops: a capacity adjustment loop which creates a “20-year” wave, and a
capacity utilizati i loop which a “4-year” cycle. We
show how this insight has been used rather successfully since the early 1980s
for practical forecasting of turning points in the shipping market 1 - 4 years
ahead of time. The basic mechanisms in the shipping system create a strong
“deterministic backbone” which is visible through the exogenous noise, and
hence predictable with useful precision. Our experience leads to a number of
questions concerning system dynamics best practice, for future research.

IT Project Management, Concept Modeling, and
Blind Dates

This paper describes a recent activity where scholars from two disciplines
met to consider possible systemic causes of repeating failure during a three-
decade long IT modernization project in the US government. From the
system dynamics perspective, the problem appears to be related to a dynamic
and repeating failure with an emt project

model. We decided to use a simple project model to develop this perspective.
Our initial attempt shows some of the anticipated dynamics of project
escalation. More important, though, was the discussion of the problem itself
that was launched by the use of a formal model. We believe that this
approach has provided insight into how to approach a more focused and
grounded analysis of the problem domain.

A system dynamics perspective on a global fishing
enterprise: the case of tuna ranching industry in
Mexico

Tuna ranching is a value-added economic activity along the coast of Baja
California in Mexico involving the live capture and transport of migrating
juvenile bluefin tuna to pens located near shore, where they are fed for a
period of months then harvested and shipped fresh for the high-end sushi
market, which is centered in Japan but expanding elsewhere. Ranching is
nested within the entire global tuna fishing and processing business. Little is
known outside the industry about the functioning of Mexican tuna ranching,
which differs in important ways compared to its Australian and
Mediterranean counterparts, and does not involve the harvest of reproducing
age animals. Our analysis and exploratory modeling exercise identify several
factors and issues that merit closer examination. A feedback perspective can
shed light on whether Mexican ranching activities have the potential to
become sustainable.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

J. Barkley Rosser
rosserjb@ jmu.edu

James Madison University
Department of Economics
MSC 0204

Harrisonburg VA 22807 USA

Tommaso Rossi
trossi@liuc.it

Universita Carlo Cattaneo LIUC
Corso Matteotti 22

21053 Castellanza VA

Italy

Carlo Noé

cnoe@ liuc.it

Universita Carlo Cattaneo LIUC
Corso Matteotti 22

21053 Castellanza VA

Italy

Margherita Pero
margherita.pero@ polimi.it

Politecnico di Milano

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Gestionale
via Colombo 40

20135 Milano

Italy

Andrea Sianesi

andrea.sianesi@ polimi.it

Politecnico di Milano

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Gestionale
via Colombo 40

20135 Milano

Italy

Etiénne A. J. A. Rouwette
erouwette@ fm.ru.nl

Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van Aquinostraat |

PO Box 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen

The Netherlands

Computational and Dynamic Complexity in
Economics

This paper examines the rising competition between computational and
dynamic conceptualizations of complexity in economics. While computable
economics views complexity as something rigorously defined based on
concepts from probability, information, and computability criteria, dynamic
complexity is based on whether a system endogenously and deterministically
generates erratically dynamic behavior of certain kinds. One such behavior is
the phenomenon of emergence, the appearance of new formes or structures at
higher levels of a system from processes occurring at lower levels. While the
two concepts can overlap, they represent substantially different perspectives.
A competition of sorts between them my become more important as new,
computerized market systems emerge and evolve to higher levels of
complexity of both kinds.

Supply network design and collaboration: a
preliminary study

This paper is aimed at formalizing and testing a model for explaining the
relations among supply chain design decisions (i.e. sourcing strategies,
number of network stages, nodes’ capacity and localization) and the need for
collaboration between the nodes of pull-based supply chain. As a
consequence, a causal diagram which depicts such relations i is built and its
validation is performed by means of si and
analyses (ANOVA and linear regression). In particular, since the magnitude
of the relations is out of the scope of the paper, the validation is done in
relative terms. The results obtained by running the simulation model of the
supply chain which represents the ‘base case’ are compared with the outputs
of the models which simulates the original logistic network modified
according to the above mentioned supply chain design elements. The
statistical analyses allow the majority of the relations of the proposed causal
diagram to be actually validated.

Modeling crime control in the Netherlands: insights
on process
This paper is about a group model building project at the Ministry of Justice

in the Netherlands. The aim of the model is to gain insight into the combined
effects of an increase in the case load and investments in different phases of

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 141

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Paul van Hooff
p.p.m.van.hooff@ minjus.nl
Ministry of Justice
Schedeldoekshaven 100
PO Box 20301

2500 EH Den Haag
The Netherlands

Jac A. M. Vennix

jvennix@ fm.ru.nl

Radboud University Nijmegen
Thomas van Aquinostraat 1
PO Box 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen

The Netherlands

Wouter Jongebreur
wouter jongebreur@ significant.nl
Significant BV
Thorbeckelaan 91

3771 ED Barneveld

The Netherlands

Agnes Rwashana Semwanga
asemwanga@ citmak.ac.ug

Makerere University

Faculty of Computing and IT

PO Box 7062

Kampala Uganda

Ddembe W. Williams

d.williams@ cit.mak.ac.ug

Makerere University

Faculty of Computing & Information Tec
PO Box 7062

Kampala Uganda

Felicjan Rydzak
felicjan.rydzak@ pwr. wroc.pl

Wroclaw University of Technology
Inst of Production Eng & Automation
Lukasiewicza 5

50-371 Wroclaw

Poland

Edward Chlebus

chlebus@ itma.pwr.wroc.pl

Wroclaw University of Technology
Inst of Production Eng & Automation
Lukasiewicza 3/5

50-371 Wroclaw

Poland

142 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

criminal justice ini and such as
increased complexity of cases. A group of representatives from the police
force, public prosecution, courts and sentence execution participated in
constructing the model from January to August 2004. In this paper we report
on reasons for starting the modeling effort and the process of model
construction. We then compare the procedure followed to ‘scripts’ — small
parts of modeling process that have been tested out in practice and serve as
standard building blocks for a group model building project. Scripts specify a
technique, the situations for which it is suited and the expected results,
enabling a modeler to choose from the wide variety of available modeling
techniques. By describing the process followed in this case and consistently
relating it to well-established practices we hope to further clarify the
modeling process, by contributing to the existing body of modeling
techniques and the dissemination of process insights.

Is Immunization Demand Equal to Immunization
Coverage? A Case Study on Uganda Healthcare
Provision

Abstract. This paper critically examines the challenges associated with
demand for immunization, including the interplay of political, social,
economic and technology forces that influence the level of immunization
coverage. In an earlier paper by the same authors, system dynamics modeling
and case study research methods are used to capture the complex and
dynamic nature of the immunization process. This paper suggests a
framework to capture the complex and dynamic nature of the immunization
process and tests its effectiveness using a case study on Uganda healthcare
provision. The results indicate in cases of developing nations, immunization
demand outstrips immunization coverage. The paper suggests that the model
and results could be used for theory building in immunization policy
evaluation in developing countries.

Application of Resilience Analysis in Production
Systems — Bombardier Transportation Case Study

This article presents the results of ongoing research on resilience in
production systems. It refers to the term resilience as a way of dealing with
uncertainty and disturbances. The proposed resilience analysis method, based
on dynamic models, supports analysis of the production system in order to
determine which structures and p should be impr d or reduced,
and what resources preserved, in order to manage resilience. The application
of the method is presented using results of the research project in Bombardier
Transportation manufacturing plant in Poland. For the purpose of the analysis
highly detailed discrete-event model and System Dynamics model were built.
Both area of interest of both models complemented one another. In this paper

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Alexander V. Ryzhenkov
ryzhenko@ ieie.nsc.ru

Russian Academy of Sciences

Inst for Economics & Industrial Eng
17 Academician Lavrentiev Avenue
Novosibirsk 630090

Russia

Rosemarie Sadsad
rsadsad@ student.unsw.edu.au
University of New South Wales
Centre for Health Informatics
Coogee Campus

Sydney NSW 2052

Australia

Geoff McDonnell
gmcdonne@ bigpond.net.au
Adaptive Care Systems
382 Bronte Road
Bronte NSW 2024
Australia

the main focus is given to the System Dynamics model. In the course of the
research project the System Dynamics approach proofed to be very useful for
examining the impacts of various disturbances and possible solution policies.
As a tool for the resilience analysis results dissemination, the dynamic model
based simulator, was prepared.

Controlling Employment, Profitability and Proved
Non-Renewable Reserves in a Theoretical Model of
the U.S. Economy

This paper elaborates the original theoretical law of capital accumulation that
generates scenarios of macroeconomic evolution. The main variables are
relative labour compensation, employment ratio, and gross unit rent,
produced capital-output ratio, proved non-renewable reserves-output ratio,
desired proved ible reser’ itput ratio, and depl of non-
renewable reserves per unit of net output. Worsening profitability and
declining employment ratio over the long term characterise an inertia
scenario for the U.S. economy over 1991-2107. Excessive depletion of
proved non-renewable reserves contributes to these disadvantageous

dencies. A forward-looking ii policy based on proportional and
derivative control over proved non-renewable reserves brings about their
extension, raises profitability and employment over the long term in the first
normative scenario in comparison with the inertia scenario. The initial
theoretical law is transformed into control law of capital accumulation. The
operational application of this control law to the U.S. economy reveals and
explains substantial lasting improvements in profitability, employment ratio,
labour productivity and real labour compensation in the second normative
scenario compared with the first normative scenario that are achieved
together with extending proved non-renewable reserves due to excess income
levy. Keywords: Capital accumulation, proved reserves, long wave, closed
loop control, excess income levy, the U.S. economy.

Using multi-scale systems simulation to evaluate
health record solutions to improve medication use
by the elderly

Elderly patients use more ications given the pi of c

putting them at risk of experiencing medication errors. A highly anticipated
strategy is the implementation of health record solutions, namely a mix of
shared electronic health records and personal health records. This
intervention provides information for all individuals involved in the
medication use system (patients, carer, doctors and pharmacists) and enables
them to make more informed decisions throughout the medication use
process (prescribing, dispensing, administering, monitoring of medications).
However, it is difficult to direct the design of such an integrated health record
solution that takes into consideration contextual factorsand its impact on,
existing interventions and society. Traditional methods such as random
controlled trials lack the capacity to capture the scale of the problem and are

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 143

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Khalid Saeed

saeed@ wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies Dept
100 Institute Road

Worcester MA 01609

USA

Ahmed Salama
ahsalama@ gmail.com
Regional IT Institute
11A Hassan Sabri
11211 Zamalek Cairo
Egypt

Khaled Wahba

khaled. wahba@ riti.org

Cairo University

Regional IT Institute

11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211

Egypt

Samir Makary
smakary@ aucegypt.edu
Regional IT Institute
11A Hassan Sabri
11211 Zamalek Cairo
Egypt

Abdolrahim Salavitabar
a.salavitabar@ gmail.com

Abazma Research Center

21 Sixth Mehr Alle Fatemieh St
Saba Blvd Ghytarieh Shariaty Ave
Tehran 19336

Tran

144 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

inadequate in terms of time frames, cost, resources required, and non-
applicability of trial settings. Multi-scale simulations can represent the
system’s different spatial and temporal resolutions providing a logical and
consistent framework for dynamic analysis and a means to design and test
health record policies to cover a range of possible futures in a risk-free
environment.

Trend Forecasting as Derivative Control

This paper revisits the use of trend forecasting in driving policy in social
systems by comparing it with derivative control in classical control theory.
While both processes involve use of trend to determine policies for achieving
reliable performance, the outcomes of the former have considerable
variability while those of the later can create improvement in performance
with certainty. The similarities and differences between the two processes are
discussed and guidelines suggested for improving the efficacy of trend-
forecasting in policy design in social systems.

The Dynamic Impact of the Cost of Doing Business
on SME’s in the Economy of Egypt

This research deals with the problems still constraining the private sector in
Egypt such as complicated and costly rules and entry regulations. The
research concentrates on legal requirements that need to be met before a
business can officially start the operation, the official cost of meeting these
requirements, and the minimum time it takes to meet them if the authorities
do not delay the process. One of the major problems that face SME’s is that
they take a very long time and pay high fees to get registered and start the
business “legally”. A recent study published by the World Bank based on few
indicators measuring the smoothness of starting a business in 155 countries,
placed Egypt in the rank 115. Normal procedures such as registering the
company, issuing licenses, paying taxes and even closing the business take,
in other parts of the world, much less than what they take in Egypt. All these
regulatory “barriers” - so called procedures - allow the creation of “unofficial
economy” or the “informal economy”. The informal economy has very
negative impacts on Egyptian economy. In other words, the Egyptian
government loses a substantial share of its income due to this informal sector.

Tehran Water Resources Management ; Using
System Dynamic Approach
1 Abstract: The growing Population and scarcity of fresh and clean water in

Tehran is the most important issues facing the Water Resources Management
in this city and neighboring region. Despite the growing attention to a chronic

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Ahmad Abrishamchi
abrisham@ sharif.edu
Sharif University

Civil Engineering Dept
Azadi Street

Tehran

Tran

Abbas Afshar

a_afshar@ iust.ac.ir

Science and Technology University
Civil Engineering Dept

Narmak Farjam Street

Tehran Iran

Mohamed Mostafa Saleh
saleh@ salehsite.info

Cairo University

27 El-Obour Buildings

Salah Salem St Naser City

Cairo Egypt

Pal I. Davidsen
pal.davidsen@ geog.uib.no
University of Bergen
Department of Geography
Fosswinckelsgt 6 7th Floor
5020 Bergen Norway

Markus Salge

salgem@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar

D-68131 Mannheim
Germany

crisis in Tehran water resources our Ability to correctly assess and predict the
trend of demand and the water availability and balance is still quite limited.
For better understand and predict the Tehran Supply and Demand condition a
System Dynamic model is developed and used to assess the balance of
sources and sinks and also the state of water storages and the degree of water
supply reliability. It has shown that there is a strong relationship between the
reliability of water supply and the following parameters: * Population growth
which its main source is immigration. * Demand \ + Supply
management The immigrant in Tehran is due to the attractiveness of Tehran.
In the demand management side, the average consumption rate in Tehran is
about 350 I/d per person which is very high. For the supply management, the
water transfer from other basin after observing all criteria as well as
optimization of water potential in Tehran water shed should be studied.

Extending eigenvalue analysis to nonlinear models
via incorporating higher order terms of Taylor
series expansion

This paper is a concept paper about a suggestion proposed by Nathan
Forrester, in the last year conference to extend eigenvalue analysis to
nonlinear models. His idea was to consider higher order terms of the Taylor
series expansion when approximating nonlinear models. In this paper, we
demonstrate the feasibility of Nathan's idea. The main contribution of this
paper is to devise a pragmatic approach to solve the resulting equations of
Taylor series expansion. This pragmatic approach is based on our novel
concept of 'smoothed Jacobian' matrix, which is computed from both the
ordinary Jacobian matrix and the set of Hessian matrices. Recall that the
elements of the ordinary Jacobian matrix represent slopes of relationships,
while the elements of the Hessian matrices represent curvatures of
relationships. So by integrating the elements the ordinary Jacobian with the
elements of the Hessian matrices, we are actually smoothing the slopes given
the knowledge about curvatures. Consequently we are smoothing the time
trajectories of eigenvalues and eigenvectors in nonlinear models.

The Good, the Bad and the Mediocre: Creating
Insightful Stories on Process Improvement

Building upon previous work in the field of system dynamics, a generic
model of multiple improvement programs is outlined. The model is used to
create insightful stories on success and failure in process improvement
initiatives. The simulation experiments reveal that plants should strive for
implementation patterns that focus on programs exhibiting higher
organizational complexity rather than technical complexity. Furthermore, the
simulation analyses provide insights in the interplay between organizational
learning, program i and process imp . The value of the
conducted approach lies in the explicit investigation of the impact of varying
improvement program patterns on plant performance.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 145

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Juan Jose Sanchez
juanjose.sanchez@ iit.upcomillas.es
Comillas University

Research Institute

Santa Cruz de Marcenado 26
28015 Madrid

Spain

Julian Barquin
julian.barquin@ iitupcomillas.es
Comillas University
Research Institute

Santa Cruz de Marcenado 26
28015 Madrid

Spain

Efraim Centeno
efraim.centeno@ iit. upcomillas.es
Comillas University
Research Institute

Santa Cruz de Marcenado 26
28015 Madrid

Spain

Sangeeta Sardiwal
sardiws@ Isbu.ac.uk

London South Bank University
103 Borough Road

London SE1 0AA

UK

Jeremy B. Sato
jbs2@ cec.wustl.edu
Washington University
2 Hobbs Mill Court

St Charles MO 63303
USA

146 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

System Dynamics Models for Generation Expansion
Planning in a Competitive Framework: Oligopoly
and Market Power Representation

This paper proposes several alternative methods to improve system dynamics
models used in the literature for i planning in li i
electricity markets. Concretely, these methods provide a better representation
of oligopoly structures and market power. These improvements focus on
market price and productions calculations, future markets modelling and
companies’ differentiation when deciding new investments. The methods
presented in the paper are based on equilibrium approaches and credit risk
theory.

Alvaro Lopez-Pefia
alvaro.lopezpena@ iit.upcomillas.es
Comillas University

Research Institute

Santa Cruz de Marcenado 26
28015 Madrid

Spain

Conceptualization and formulation of a UK health
and social care system using System Dynamics

The UK health and social care systems are continuously changing over time.
Other authors have previously put a strong case for usage of system dynamics
(SD) in this area largely because SD address issues of system complexity and
identification of feedback loops, resulting in a greater insight into this
problem situation. This paper presents research carried out in two areas of
SD, firstly the conceptualizing of a problem and secondly the building of a
SD model related to the dynamic problem of ‘‘bed blocking”’ in the UK
health and social care domain. A case study approach has been applied to a
hospital discharge department and elderly wards in a main UK hospital. This
paper provides a useful insight into issues that have occurred when
conceptualizing and formulating a health and social care SD model. System
behavior has been discussed as has the use of causal loop diagrams and stock
and flow diagrams. Causal loop diagrams and stocks and flows have shown
to play a useful part in overcoming SD difficulties. SD has proved to be a
useful method in helping to gain an insight into the dynamics of a health and
social care system. This is a preliminary paper, future papers will expand on
this to look at policy experiments and sensitivity tests.

A System Dynamics Approach to Analyzing
Violence, Death, and Displacement in Darfur
This paper presents a System Dynamics approach to analyzing the violence

and widespread death and displacement in Darfur, Sudan, as observed since
2003. We lay a for using to i i the underlying

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Bonnie Kopolow Stansen
bonfirestl@ aol.com

Washington University in St. Louis
8032 Venetian Drive

Clayton MO 63105 USA

Agata Sawicka
agata.sawicka@ hia.no
Agder University College
Grooseveien 36
NO-4876 Grimstad
Norway

Felicjan Rydzak

felicjan.rydzak@ pwr.wroc.pl

Wroclaw University of Technology
Inst of Production Eng & Automation
Lukasiewicza 5

50-371 Wroclaw

Poland

Ali Kerem Saysel

ali.saysel@ boun.edu.tr

Bogazigi University

Institute of Environmental Sciences
34342 Bebek Istanbul

Turkey

Firat Incioglu
firat.incioglu@ gmx.net
Bogazici University

Saral Sitesi D Blok 19
Gayrettepe Istanbul 34349
Turkey

structure and effects of violence; model analysis indicates that presently the
dynamics may be driven by the population at risk more so than aggressor
intent. This model can aid in future policy analysis and establishes a
foundation for using System Dynamics to understand the structure and
pattern of genocide. We present several challenges to analyzing the Darfur
crisis ing observability, i ion delays, and the choice of metrics.
Finally we discuss modeling results and options for intervention and propose
several policy questions and areas for future research.

Incorporating Delays in the Decision-Making
Interface: An Experimental Study

Delays are one specific factor contributing to misperceptions of dynamics.
An experimental study was conducted to investigate how different
representations of delays in the decision making interfaces (DMIs) may affect
people’s ability to manage and understand a dynamic system. A simple
production-i t game was developed with four distinct
DMIs, each featuring the production delay in a different way. Subjects were
assigned randomly to use one of the four DMIs and a single-subject, think-
aloud experimental protocol was deployed to gather data on the decision
making process. No vivid impact of the different representations of the delay
in the DMI was observed. However, data gathered through the single subject
experimental protocol suggest that the subjects do not follow the anchoring
and adjustment rule proposed earlier (see Sterman 1989). Rather, they
develop a simplified decision rule that is not robust to changes in the task
settings but that is successful in the context of the particular experimental
task.

CO2 Abatement and Trade with Economic Growth
in the Long Term: Experimental Analysis

So as to stabilize the ic 1 gas at tolerable
levels, global emissions should dramatically be reduced soon within this
century. To achieve this end, a long term global cooperation and developing
country participation is essential. In this paper, we take the “Contraction and
Convergence” framework first proposed by the CSE of India as one possible
treaty and investigate the long term abatement and trading behavior of
countries with economic growth. Dynamic simulation based economic
experiments is the method. Seven countries with potential buyers and sellers
trade permits in the global market for 25 years. For each simulated year, asks
and bids of the countries /regions are collected and permit prices are set at the
equilibrium price. In the first treatment, annual national quotas expire each
year and the countries cannot save their . In the second
the countries are allowed to transfer quota surplus /deficit up to 30 /20
percent of their annual emissions to the next year. One hypothesis is that,
neither the developed nor the developing countries will make sufficient
timely reductions and they will create ici costs for their
as the quota prices increase over the years. An implication of this result is
global cooperation being threatened under more stringent reduction

and i ing costs of i

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 147

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl

Universidad de Talca

FACE

Avenida Lircay s/n

Talca Chile

Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl

Universidad de Talca

FACE

Avenida Lircay s/n

Talca Chile

Jurgen Scheffran
University at Illinois
Program in Arms Control
Champaign IL 61820 USA

Todd BenDor

bendor@ uiuc.edu

University of North Carolina
New East Building

Campus Box # 3140

Chapel Hill NC 27599-3140 USA

148 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Causality and diagrams for system dynamics

Polarity and causality are important concepts but have not received much
attention in the system dynamics literature. The great effort it takes students
to properly understand them has motivated this inquiry. In the framework of
a conceptual model of interacting with complex systems, several cognitive
tasks are proposed. This paper concentrates on one of them that deals with
causal links’ polarity. An examination of other approaches that deal with
causality and use more or less similar diagram languages shows that usually
causality is only very broadly defined, and where it is operationally defined,
this is done with respect to events rather than behavior. In contrast to these
approaches, system dynamics is about behavior rather than events. We then
revisit the traditional criticism of causal loop diagrams and show a way out,
but add two new criticisms related to the inability of causal loop diagrams to
address behavior: in fact it seems that they are closer to the event-related
definition of causality. Also, the impossibility to execute them in simulations
means that dels are to be preferred: they express
important information a causal loop diagram cannot represent and on top of it
they render the behavioral consequences visible (as opposed to the events).

Educational quality and equality — why are they so
hard to reconcile?

Since the ‘50s, there have been voices that governments should cease to
operate schools and limit themselves to financing it via a voucher system and

ing schools’ pli: to quality In the early ‘80s, this
has been implemented in Chile. There are three types of schools: private ones
freely charge fees, private subsidized that have a limited fee and public. The
quality and equality of the school system fall short of expectations. This
paper proposes a qualitative model to explain what is going on. Families are
assumed to prefer higher performing schools, teachers prefer better labor
conditions and schools prefer favored pupils and better teachers. Richer
schools attract more favored families that enable improved results due to the
favored-pupil effect; additionally their ability to charge higher fees allows
them to attract the best teachers, which further enhances their advantage. We
find 5 positive feedback loops. The result is a process of concentration of
favored pupils and good teachers that increases inequality. It is concluded
that there are unequal conditions amongst the types of schools, and as long as
they persist, no initiative in favor of more equality will succeed.

A Spatial-Dynamic Model of Introducing Bioenergy
Crops in Illinois

Growing concern about climate change and energy security has led to
increasing interest in developing domestically available renewable energy
sources for meeting the electricity, heating and fuel needs in the United
States. Illinois has significant potential to grow perennial grasses that can
provide bioenergy. Recent research on miscanthus has shown that this low-
input perennial may have biomass yields that are twice that of switchgrass

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Yun Wang
yunwang@ uiuc.edu
Uniy of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Bruce Hannon

bhannon@ express.cites.uiuc.edu

Uniy of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Dept of Geography MC150

607 S Matthews Street

Urbana IL 61801 USA

Bernd Scholz-Reiter
bsr@ biba.uni-bremen.de
BIBA IPS

Hochschulring 20

28359 Bremen

Germany

Salima Delhoum
del@ biba.uni-bremen.de
Universitat Bremen
BIBA - IPS
Hochschulring 20
28359 Bremen Germany

Michael Schwandt

schwandt@ viedu

Virginia Polytechnic Inst & State Univ
835 Collins Street

Christiansburg VA 24073

USA

Kostas Triantis
triantis@ vtedu

Virginia Tech

3300 North 17th Street
Arlington VA 22201
USA

James Glenn
jrglenn@ viedu

and corn. Land requirements from growing biomass crops compete with
existing profitable land uses, which in the case of Illinois, is primarily in row
crop agriculture. This study ines the ditions of switching land from
row crops to energy crops which are expected to vary across the ‘landscape in
Illinois, depending on soil quality and climatic conditions. To find the
optimal land allocation among competing uses we will use spatial dynamic
modeling tools combined with data from Geographic Information Systems
(GIS) on land quality, climate and land use. The Spatial Modeling
Environment (SME) allows inclusion of spatially enabled dynamic models to
combine syst and agent-b: deling app Four major
crops are compared, including corn, soybeans, miscanthus, and switchgrass.

Decision Patterns of Inventory Control Based on a
Learning Lab with the Supply Net Game

The essay attempts to estimate the value of aggregating a simulation game for
inventory control, namely the supply net game, and a systems thinking
intervention through the left-hand column (LHC) method. By value it is
meant the performance of the subjects in respect with the deterministic task
of inventory control. Particularly, people’s performance is measured by the
mean marginal inventory costs. A novel application of the left-hand column
method is reported. The experimental design and methodology showed that a
significant difference exists between the mean of every individual team,
which had had a mental model elicitation with LHC before it played the
simulation game, and that of the quasi-optimal heuristic of anchoring and
adjustment. On the basis of these preliminary results, it cannot be inferred
that the learning lab affects the performance of the students. However, these
outcomes must be verified by further work encompassing qualitative and
quantitative enhancements to this experiment. The learning laboratory offers
a number of team and individual learning perspectives.

Intercollegiate Athletic Departments Performance
Assessment

Like other United States II athletics departments
face the challenge of operating efficiently and effectively. Performance
measurement in this environment is made more challenging by the need to be
successful both on and off the playing fields. With its focus on structural
performance contributions, system dynamics modeling works well with data
envelopment analysis, which is focused on input-output relationships, to
provide a more pl of performance and

This bined supports policy analysis that
contributes to performance improvement opportunities. This research outlines
the success achieved by linking these two approaches, even with the system
dynamics contribution limited to a qualitative model.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 149

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Michael Schwandt

schwandt@ viedu

Virginia Polytechnic Inst & State Univ
835 Collins Street

Christiansburg VA 24073

USA

Markus Schwaninger
markus.schwaninger@ unisg.ch
University of St Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a

CH-9000 St Gallen
Switzerland

Kristjan Ambroz
kambroz@ vanguardstrategy.com
Vanguard Strategy

33 Soho Square

London W1D 3QU

UK

Camilo Olaya

colaya@ uniandes.edu.co

Universidad de los Andes
Departamento de Ingenieria Industrial
Calle 19 A No 1-37 Este

Bogota

Colombia

Doreen Schwarz
doreen.schwarz@ tu-cottbus.de
Brandenburg Technical Univ Cottbus
Lieberoser Str 7A

03046 Cottbus

Germany

150 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Modeling Risk Classification Scheme for System
Dynamics Modeling

System dynamics modelers face a broad spectrum of risks toward achieving
project objectives. As they gain experience, their risk identification and
management capabilities increase. By applying classification techniques from
i ge of previous modelers has
been captured in a classification scheme for system dynamics modeling risks.
The classification scheme allows modelers to more efficiently and effectively
consider modeling risks by reducing the variation in their knowledge levels.
The classification structure is focused on the steps of the system dynamics

deli dology and the achi of system ki and
improvement objectives. As part of a broader modeling risk management
approach, the risk classification scheme assists modelers in identifying and
prioritizing the anticipated sources of modeling risks for a project. With that
knowledge, they can more effectively identify the appropriate techniques for
managing risks and then efficiently apply those techniques in a timely
fashion through the entire project cycle.

the k

The Complexity Challenge: A Case for Model-
based Management

The purpose of this paper is to present a case study which illuminates the role
of dy-namic models as enablers of better general management in the face of
complexity. That role is usually accounted for either by the logic of the
models or by the process of building them, namely in group model-building.
Here, the relationship and interaction of the two, model logic with modeling
process, is considered. We maintain that the conceptual understanding of
managers is the crucial lever for better management. Our focus is on the role
of models in improving such understanding. The empirical base and object of
reflection is a large case study from an ultra-complex firm, where a model
building and training venture was carried out. The main concern which aimed
the project was to facilitate the ability of managers to cope with complexity
and to enable effective organizational change. The venture enhanced both the
systemic view and awareness among participants of the project, and therefore
proved to be a good investment in management quality. In essence, it was an
impor-tant move toward model-based management. A core group had been
captivated by the power of systemic thinking in general and the use of
models in particular. A seed had been sown.

Effects of naive personnel policy on the value of
human capital

Strategic Human Resources Management (HRM) is a crucial factor of
companies in which knowledge plays a vital role. But Germany’s shrinking
and aging population and their effects on the labor force potential within the
next 10 to 15 years seem to be ignored by HR managers. Layoffs are still
common practice and even early retirement schemes were common a short
time ago. Supposably, managers do not have informative tools neither to

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Peter M. Senge

psenge@ mit.edu

Society for Organizational Learning
25 First St Ste 414

Cambridge MA 02141 USA

Andrew P. Jones
apjones@ sustainer.org
Sustainability Institute

8 Lynmar Avenue
Asheville NC 28804 USA

Linda Booth Sweeney
linda_booth_sweeney@ post.harvard.edu
Harvard Graduate School of Education
324 Sudbury Road

Concord MA 01742 USA

John Sterman

jsterman@ mitedu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142 USA

Juan Martin Garcia
jmg@ grn.es

Doctor Francesc Darder 18
08034 Barcelona

Spain

Stuart Sivertson
ssivert@ chartermi.net
GPIR Line Inc

1932 East Ninth Street
Duluth MN 55812

ISA

evaluate ex ante specific HR strategies nor to forecast the development of
stock and age structure of their workforce by simultaneously taking into
account the intrasystem complexity and dynamic. This case study in progress

L on the i effects of emp ion and
different recruiting policies on the value of human capital in conjunction with
a detailed aging chain. The author uses the feasible ‘Transparent Human
Capital Valuation’ approach to assess this human capital value and
implements the approach as a co-flow within the system dynamics model.
The promotion of an applicable and holistic HRM tool is both a
contemporary and overdue issue.

The Climate Bathtub Sim: An Interactive
Simulator to Teach Stock-and-Flow Mechanics of
Global Warming

Experimental studies have demonstrated that even highly educated people do
not stock dynamics. Such ions are currently
having potentially disastrous effects in the area of climate change policy,
where very few non-technical experts yet grasp that stabilizing carbon in the
atmosphere will take a massive (50-80%) reduction in emissions in the
coming decades. In order to correct such misunderstandings and to support a
more grounded public discourse on the speed and scale of response needed to
the threat of climate change, a diverse team has constructed an interactive,
online simulator for the general public that includes an animated bathtub, so
that the learner may experiment with different policy approaches to stabilize
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Although extremely simple, the aim of fostering
broad, intuitive public understanding has been neglected by more complex
climate change models. This presentation will briefly demo the "Sim" and
explore the learning theory that undergirds it and the planed series of
"freeware" climate simulators.

Thomas Fiddaman
tom@ vensim.com

Ventana Systems

1070 Bridger Woods Road
Bozeman MT 59715 USA

Michael Tempel
tempel@ new-york.sl.slb.com
Schlumberger

A Systems Dynamics Model of Fish Populations in
Western Lake Superior

Lake Superior’s fishery resources have been subject to management control
for more than a century. A goal of achieving stability of fish populations has
been elusive. Present goals stated by management authorities have been
expressed as hopes of achieving “fish- community objectives”, some of
which may be impossibly exclusive in practice. A system dynamics model of
major predator and prey fish populations of Western Lake Superior is

i and Model si ions of fish population changes

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 151

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Andrej Skraba
andrej.skraba@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor
Kidriceva Cesta 34
S1-4000 Kranj

Slovenia

Miroljub Kljajié
miroljub.kijajic@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor
Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a
S1-4000 Kranj Slovenia

Davorin Kofjac

davorin.kofjac@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Science
Kidriceva 55a

4000 Kranj Slovenia

Andrej Knaflic

andrej.knaflic@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a

4000 Kranj Slovenia

Iztok Podbregar
iztok.podbregar@ fpwv.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a

4000 Kranj Slovenia

M. Dolores Soto-Torres
lolasoto@ eco.uva.es

Universidad de Valladolid

Dpto Economia Aplicada
Avenida Valle Esgueva 6

47011 Valladolid Spain

Ramon Fernandez-Lechén
ramonfer@ eco.uva.es
Universidad de Valladolid

are to historical esti Model-implied results of alternative
management policies are explored. Experiments applying past and alternative
management policies indicate that a policy of reducing current high rates of
predator stockings together with moderately increasing predator harvestings
would contribute to long term population stability among both predator and
prey fish populations of Lake Superior.

Development of a Human Resources Transition
Simulation Model in Slovenian Armed Forces

The paper describes development of a continuous and discrete model of
human itions in a large ion. The model i
eight different ranks. The calibration of the model was performed where the
historical data was used to determine time constants of transitions and
fluctuations. Several simulation runs were performed in order to complete
predictive validation of the model. Optimization of the model was performed
in order to achieve desired structural dynamics. Pattern search algorithm was
applied at this stage while considering the key parameters’ limitations. By
performing the optimization appropriate strategy of the system structural

lop could be and comparison of the
continuous and discrete event rasa was performed. The discrete event
model was applied in the validation phase. The hybrid approach to the
problem provided higher level of confidence. System dynamics methodology
proved to be appropriate as the tool for initial development of the model and
structural validation reference.

A system dynamics model about public corruption:
the influence of bribes on economic growth

This paper builds a system dynamics model to study the impact of some
activities of public corruption on economic growth. The model is articulated
around a generic economy in which a public and a private sector take part.
The sectors produce different goods using the same available economic
resources. Both use labour and could employ different criteria for

‘ing their workers. The difference between the private and public

Facultad de Ciencias E
Avda Valle Esgueva 6
47011 Valladolid Spain

152 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

wage allows the model to justify the introduction and the persistence over
time of public corrupt activities in the economy. The causal structure collects
the decisions and the rules of behaviour of the economic agents. It reflects the

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Pedro Fernandez Soto
pedro.fernandez.soto@ es.pwe.com
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Paseo de la Castellana 43
28046 Madrid Spain

Krystyna A. Stave
aystyna.stave@ unlv.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway

Box 454030

Las Vegas NV 89154-4030 USA

Megan Hopper

mhopper83@ hotmail.com

University of Nevada Las Vegas
Department of Environmental Studies
4505 Maryland Parkway Box 454030
Las Vegas NV 89154-4030 USA

Stephanie J. Fincher
steph_fincher@ hotmail.com
University of Nevada Las Vegas
7904 Canyon Grove Ct

Las Vegas NV 89131 USA

Katherine Steel
ksteel@ mit.edu

MIT

16 River Street #5
Boston MA 02108
USA

Craig A. Stephens
craig.stephens@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group

One Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

normal economic activities and the interactions between them and the new
causal relationships arising from the corruption activities. The feedback
processes totally explains why corruption modifies both the public and
private production as well as the wealth of some citizens. After formulating
the decision rules of the economic agents, calibrating the values of the
parameters and the initial conditions of the levels, a simulation exercise is
carried out to characterize the growth attained by the economy under
different scenarios taking into account different degrees of corruption and
different ways for fighting against it.

What Constitutes Systems Thinking? A review of
practitioner views

As we approach the 50th Anniversary of System Dynamics, researchers and
practitioners have yet to reach a consensus on the components of systems
thinking or a method for measuring systems thinking in individuals. This
paper reviews the state of thinking about systems thinking and researcher
Tepotts of offons to assess systems thinking. As the foundation for

i ‘k to be able to determine an individual’s
level of aeotein thinking, we present a review of the literature and the results
of a survey administered to participants at the 2006 Systems Thinking and
Dynamic Modeling for K-12 Confe in Marlboro, \

The Choice Between Grid and Off-grid
Electrification in Kenya and its Impact on System
Development

This paper explores the dynamics of the development of grid-based
electrification compared to off-grid electrification in Kenya. Consumers in
Kenya who can afford to use electricity must choose to be connected to the
national grid or to purchase a standalone system (usually diesel or
photovoltaic generators). This decision is based not on price alone, but on the
relative availability and reliability of the options. Although competition
usually spurs growth, in this case it appears that the presence of strong off-
grid choices may be hindering the development of the grid. If this is the true,
energy planners might need to consider policy options which encourage the
grid and off-grid markets to work as complements.

The Value of System Dynamics in the Wider

World: an Outside-In View
System Dynamics is no longer new, but its impact on the wider world is still

quite immature. Newer technologies have been taken up much faster and
more broadly, bringing about huge societal changes. Is System Dynamics

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 153

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Hendrik Stouten

stouten_h@ hotmail.com

Institute for Agriculture & Fisheries
Petunialaan 32

B-8400 Ostend

Belgium

Kris Van Craeynest
kris.vancraeynest@ ilvo.vlaanderen.be
ILVO

Ankerstraat 1

B-8400 Ostend

Belgium

Aime Heene

aime heene@ Ugent.be
Ghent University
Hoveniersberg 24
9000 Gent

Belgium

Xavier Gellynek
xavier.gellynck@ ugent.be

Ghent University

Dept of Agricultural Economics
Coupure Links 653

B-9000 Ghent Belgium

Jiirgen Strohhecker
j.strohhecker@ frankfurt-school.de

Frankfurt School of Finance and Manage
Sonnemannstrasse 9-11

D-60314 Frankfurt am Main

Germany

154 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

fundamentally different, and do essential characteristics necessarily restrict it
to narrower impacts and a slower rate of diffusion? The answers lie in
innovation. This paper describes how innovation by practitioners will
profoundly change the practice of System Dynamics and its societal impact.

A preliminary microworld to gain insights in
Belgian fishery fleet dynamics.

The objective of this paper is to develop and evaluate a micro-economical
microworld which will allow policy makers to gain more insight in
parameters that influence the Belgian fishery fleet structure. In a later stage,
this microworld may contribute to the process of developing a long-term
strategy for the Belgian fishery sector, serving as a laboratory for ex-ante
evaluation of posmible! Strategies. (Keys, Fulmer, and Stumpf 1996; De Geus
1997) By vi and ( 1999), it generates
insights “bout fleet dynamics in response to a changing environment and
policy changes.

Jochen Depestele Bart Verschueren

jochen.depestele@ ilvo viaanderen.be bart. vlaanderen.be
ILVO ILVO

Ankerstraat 1 Ankerstraat 1

B-8400 Ostend B-8400 Ostend

Belgium Belgium

Els Vanderperren Hans Polet

els.vanderperren@ ilvo.vlaanderen.be hans.polet@ ilvo.vlaanderen.be
ILVO ILVO

Ankerstraat 1 Ankerstraat 1
B-8400 Ostend B-8400 Ostend
Belgium Belgium

Does a Balanced Scorecard Management Cockpit
Increase Strategy Implementation Performance?

In various articles and books, Kaplan and Norton maintain that use of a
Balanced Scorecard (BSC) will increase an organization's ability to execute
its strategy and therefore ultimately improve its performance. They

iate their hypothesis with cases for which they report
ee performance”. ished empirical evidence for
the BSC’s positive impact on performance i: is sparse. This article aims to
contribute to the empirical research on the BSC’s performance impact
describing a laboratory experiment. Using a computer-based feedback-rich
micro-world, the subjects were placed in a top manager position. Their task
was to implement a given strategy as best as they could, which meant to
translate strategy into operational decisions over a period of 10 years. The
experiment group was equipped with a BSC management cockpit that was
carefully tailored to the strategy, while the control group had to rely on
traditional reports as information source. The experiment data are used to test

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jeroen Struben
jjrs@ mitedu

MIT

30 Wadsworth Street
Cambridge MA 02142
USA

Lees N. Stuntz
stuntzin@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
27 Central Street

Acton MA 01720

USA

Debra A. Lyneis

lyneisd@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
PO Box 121

215 Landgrove Road
Weston VT 05161 USA

the hypothesis that subjects provided with the BSC cockpit perform better
than the control group. Statistical analysis shows that this hypothesis could
not be rejected. The BSC cockpit indeed had a positive impact on
performance. Some possible explanations for this finding are discussed and
issues for further research are outlined.

From stylized facts to multiple mechanisms:
diffusion analysis of past and present alternative
fuel introductions

Contrary to S-curve diffusion theory, historical introductions of alternative
transportation fuels (ATFs) exhibit a variety of adoption patterns. Analysis of
ATF introductions in the market place of natural gas in Argentina and New
Zealand and ethanol in Brazil reveals that the aggregate dynamics cannot be
traced back to a single dominant mechanism of change. ATF diffusion

bodies several the Pp of
the vehicle installed base, consumer preferences and driver behavior, the
of technology and ities, such as a fueling

infrastructure, and the transformation of fuel and automotive supply chains.
Further, their diffusion is conditioned by institutional contexts. A behavioral
dynamic model with a broad system boundary helps understanding failures
and successes of ATF diffusion. While successful diffusion, such as promised
by the Brazil case, is possible, the analysis reveals complex dynamics,
requiring long periods of commitment and coordination across various types
of actors. The paper develops initial steps towards a framework for studying
the rich dynamics of socio-technical systems change. Central in such a

process based fi ‘k are the I within interor
fields, capturing decisions and actions from consumers, organizations across
industries and policy and i the system-ph ical aspects.

We discuss implications for policy and strategy.

System Dynamics in K-12 Education: Lessons
Learned

Fifteen years ago, Jay Forrester laid the cornerstones for a more effective
kindergarten through 12th grade (K-12) education based on system dynamics.
In this paper, teachers and other educators who have been implementing
system dynamics and systems thinking in schools across the United States
reflect on their progress. Although all of the educators have been encouraged
and inspired by student engagement and insight using system dynamics in
their classrooms, wider adoption has encountered obstacles. Strategies to
overcome them include: improving the quality and quantity of system
dynamics curriculum materials and training opportunities for teachers,
integrating the use of systems thinking tools with system dynamics
simulation to give students the full benefit of both, seeking ways to work
within the K-12 institution to effect change, and working together to learn
from successes and mistakes.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 155

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Derek R. Supple
dsupple@ mit.edu

MIT

25 Laurel St
Somerville MA 02143
USA

Finn Olay Sveen
fosveen@ tecnun.es

Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia San Sebastian
Gipuzkoa

Spain

Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegui@ tecnun.es

Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia

Spain

Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ hia.no
Agder University College

Faculty of Engineering and Science

Serviceboks 509
NO-4898 Grimstad
Norway

156 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Managing the Transition toward Self-Sustaining
Alternative Fuel Vehicle Markets: Policy Analysis
Using a Dynamic Model

Designing public policy and industry strategy to bolster the transition to
alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) is a formidable challenge as demonstrated by
historical failed attempts. The transition occurs within a complex system with
many distributed actors, long time delays, several feedback relationships, and
multiple tipping points. A broad-boundary, behavioral, dynamic model with
explicit spatial structure was previously developed to represent the most
important AFV transition barriers. In this work, the integrated model is
parameterized for various vehicle platforms. Structural and parametric
sensitivity analyses are used to build understanding of system behavior and to
identify policy leverage points. The qualitative impacts of policies are tested
individually and then in combinations to find synergies. Under plausible
assumptions and strong policies, successful AFV diffusion can occur but
requires several decades. Findings indicate that some commonly suggested
policies provide little leverage and are quite costly. The analys
demonstrates the importance of designing policy cognizant of the system
structure underlying its dynamic behavior. To reach a self-sustaining market,
coordinated portfolios of policy instruments must simultaneously foster the

of familiarity, well-distributed fueling infrastructure,
and vehicle manufacturer knowledge at similar rates and over long enough
duration to surpass thresholds in these complementary assets.

Incident Learning Systems: From Safety to Security

The complexity of modern networked systems has negative consequences in
the form of intended and unintended security incidents. Information security
is not the first field to grapple with such challenges. In safety, incident
learning systems (ILS) have been used to control high risk environments.
Many of these systems, such as NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System,
have demonstrated considerable success while others have failed. Prior to
implementing ILS in information security, it is prudent to learn from
experiences gained in safety. We use System Dynamics to investigate how
factors such as ives, recriminations and
resources affect a safety incident learning system. We find that the rate of
incidents is not a suitable indicator of the state of the system. An increasing
or decreasing incident rate may both be caused by either increased or
decreased security. Other indicators, such as the severity of incidents, should
be used.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Burcu Tan

burcu.tan@ phd.mccombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas at Austin

McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Sta B6000

Austin TX 78712-0201 USA

Edward G. Anderson
edward.anderson@ mecombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas

McCombs School of Business IROM Dept
1 University Station B6500

Austin TX 78712 USA

Geoffrey Parker

gparker@ tulane.edu

Tulane University

Entergy Tulane Energy Institute
9 McAlister Dr

New Orleans LA 70118 USA

Anas Tawileh

anas@ tawileh.net

Cardiff University

School of Computer Science

5 The Parade Queen's Buildings
Cardiff CF24 3AA Wales UK

Stephen B. McIntosh

sbm@ cs.cfac.uk

Cardiff University

Brynrhug Farm Cwmdu Road
Maesteg Midglamorgan CF34 ODL
UK

Anas Tawileh

anas@ tawileh.net

Cardiff University

School of Computer Science

5 The Parade Queen's Buildings
Cardiff CF24 3AA Wales UK

Stephen B. McIntosh

sbm@ cs.cf.ac.uk

Cardiff University

Brynrhug Farm Cwmdu Road
Maesteg Midglamorgan CF34 ODL Uk

Managing Risk in Alternative Energy Product
Development

We will explore how to value using modern financial techniques the
development of new alternative energy technologies (AETs) given
uncertainty. Uncertainty in developing AETs derives from: (1) the reduction
in installation cost of new generation capacity as experience with the
technology is gained, i.e. the learning curve (2) oil and natural gas price
cycles; and (3) other macroeconomic and geopolitical forces, particularly the
behavior of national oil companies (Aramco, PDVSA, PEMEX, etc.).
Evaluating a new AET properly requires representing these uncertainties as
well as an investment valuation approach that works well under high
uncertainty. In particular, we propose to adapt the real options methodology
to value the potential return from developing AETs using stochastic system
dynamics models representing the uncertainty in both the learning curve and
the fossil fuel price cycles.

Network Bandwidth Estimation: A System
Dynamics Approach

In this paper, we propose a new approach to network bandwidth estimation
based on System Dynamics modelling. The paper discusses existing
approaches to bandwidth estimation and network capacity planning.
Limitations of these app are p and the case for using System
Dynamics is made. Applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated
through a real world network planning project for a distributed logistics

ion. A practical Ip model was developed to predict
bandwidth requirements for the project’s network. This model provides
system planners with the ability to test different possible scenarios in order to
make informed decisions about the system architecture. We show through
practical results of the simulation runs and the insights gained during the
process that the System Dynamics approach offers an effective solution to the
problem of network bandwidth estimation and system planning. The paper
concludes with a review of the results and pointers for further research.

The Dynamics of Software Testing

In the modern information based society, failure of software systems can
have significant consequences. It has been argued that increased attention to
testing activities during the software development process can mitigate the
probabilities of system failure after implementation. However, in order to
justify ini testing, the ic impacts of improper
testing should be identified. In this paper, we propose a systematic approach
to the evaluation of the economic impacts of software testing. The main
factors affecting software testing are identified, and a computer simulation
model is developed to investigate different testing scenarios. Usefulness of

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 157

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Brent Work

b.work@ cs.cf.ac.uk

Cardiff University

School of Computer Science

5 The Parade Queen's Buildings
Cardiff CF24 3AA Wales UK.

W.K. Ivins

wkivins@ cs.cfac.uk

Cardiff University

School of Computer Science

5 The Parade Queen's Buildings
Cardiff CF24 3AA Wales UK

Ivan Taylor

taylor.iw@ forces.gc.ca

Dept of National Defence
DRDC CORA

NDHQ 101 Colonel By Drive
Ottawa ON K1A 0K2 Canada

Luminita Stemate
luminita.stemate@ drdc-rdde.ge.ca
Defence Research and Development
Valcartier

Quebec City Quebec G3J 1X5 Canada

Codrin Pasca

codrinp@ hotmail.com

Defence Research and Development
c\o Luminita Stemate

Valcartier

Quebec City Quebec G3J 1X5 Canada

Soni Desai

s7a7d7@ yahoo.ca

National Defence Headquarters.
c/o Ivan Taylor

Operational Research and Analysis
Ottawa Ontario K1A 0K2 Canada

Timothy R.B. Taylor

xftu@ tamu.edu

Texas A&M University

Zachry Department of Civil Engineering
709E CE/TTI Tower

College Station TX 77843-3136 USA

David N. Ford

davidford@ tamu.edu

Texas A&M University

Dept Civil Engineering Mailstop 3136
College Station TX 77843-3136 USA

158 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

the approach is through several y
simulations. The results prove the utility of the System Dynamics modelling
approach in building better understanding of the impact of software testing.
icati for software d practiti a
of software products and software support organisations are also discussed.

customer

Using Feedback to Conduct Crowd Control

Crowd Control is a function generally associated with the police more than
the military. However, the Canadian Forces are occasionally asked to
intervene in riot situations either in Canada, in support to Federal, Provincial
and Municipal Governments, or overseas, during Coalition operations. Thus,
there is a need to understand crowd behaviour and to determine optimal
intervention strategies for crowd control. The Canadian Forces have skills
and resources that might be called upon if a situation gets out of control and
must be prepared to deploy on short notice. A model has been developed that
can be used to understand these events in the time dimension both inside the
event and from event to event. The model has been developed theoretically
and “face validated” using data from two case studies. The model is required
to evaluate appropriate tactics such as the employment of non-lethal
weapons, and as a training simulator for strategic and tactical commanders.

Project Controls to Minimize Cost and Schedule
Overruns: A Model, Research Agenda, and Initial
Results

System dynamics has been successfully applied to the study of projects for
many years. While this modeling has clearly defined the structures which
create project dynamics, it has been less helpful in providing explicit policy
advice to managers. To address this gap, we examine the effectiveness of
three common project controls available to project managers to address
deviations in project performance; (1) exerting pressure on project staff to
work faster, (2) having staff work overtime, and/or (3) hiring additional staff.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

James M. Lyneis

jmlyneis@ verizon.net

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
PO Box 121

215 Landgrove Road

Weston VT 05161 USA

Timothy R.B. Taylor
xftu@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University

Zachry Department of Civil Engineering

709E CE/TTI Tower
College Station TX 77843-3136
USA

David N. Ford

davidford@ tamu.edu

Texas A&M University

Dept Civil Engineering Mailstop 3136
College Station TX 77843-3136

USA

Andrew Ford

forda@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
Environmental Science

PO Box 644430

Pullman WA 99164-4430
USA

Claudio Tebaldi
claudio.tebaldi@ polito.it
Politecnico of Torino
Department of Mathematics
Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24
10129 Torino Italy

Giorgio Colacchio
giorgio.colacchio@ ateneo.unile.it
University of Salento

Faculty of Law

Via Monteroni SN Centro Ecotekne
73100 Lecce Italy

While the three project controls can have short-term benefits for project
performance, their long-term impacts can be detrimental. The current work
presents preliminary results of the research, focusing on the impacts of the
three project controls on project rework and schedule performance. The work
describes the development of project control feedback structures, the initial
testing and use of a formal system dynamics model of the system, and
preliminary results. The work concludes with a description of future project
research efforts.

Model Analysis Using Statistical Screening:
Extensions and Example Applications

System dynamics models are often constructed to improve system
performance by identifying and modifying feedback mechanisms that drive
system behavior. Once identified, these feedback mechanisms can be used to
design and test policies for system performance improvement. A preliminary
step in developing policies is the identification of high leverage parameters
and structures, the influential model sections that drive system behavior. The
current work clarifies and extends the use of statistical screening (Ford and
Flynn, 2005) as a model analysis tool with a six step process that identifies
specific model sections for further analysis and development. The work also
presents a method that clarifies the results of model analysis with statistical
screening to practicing managers Statistical screening offers system
dynamicists a user-friendly tool that can be used to help explain how model
structure drives system behavior.

Chaotic Behavior in a Modified Goodwin's Growth
Cycle Model

Goodwin’s “A Growth Cycle” [1967] rep amil in the li
modeling of economic dynamics. In terms of the two variables “wage share”
and “employment rate” and on the basis of few simple assumptions, the
Goodwin Model (GM) is formulated exactly as the well-known Lotka-
Volterra system, with all the limits of such system, in particular the lacking
of structural stability. A number of extensions have been proposed with the
aim to make the model more robust. We propose a new extension that: a)
removes the limiting hypothesis of “Harrod-neutral” technical progress: b) on
the line of Lotka-Volterra models with adaptation, introduces the concept of
“memory”, which certainly plays a relevant role in the dynamics of economic
systems. As a consequence an additional equation appears, the validity of the
model is substantially extended and a rich phenomenology is obtained, in
particular transition to chaotic behavior via period-doubling bifurcations.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 159

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Kate J. Thompson
k thompson@ edfac.usyd.edu.au
University of Sydney
Building A35

Sydney 2006

Australia

Peter Reimann

p.reimann@ edfac.usyd.edu.au
University of Sydney

Building A35

Faculty of Education and Social Work
Sydney 2006

Australia

Fang Tian
selenetian@ gmail.com
Tsinghua University
Dept of Automation
Room 307 Building 35

Beijing

China

Warren W. Tignor
wtignor@ ieee.org

SAIC

472 Cornwall Court
Severna Park MD 21146
USA

160 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Do school students learn more about the
environment from a system dynamics model by
themselves or with a partner?

As part of the first author’s PhD project, year 9 and 10 students were given a
system dynamics model of the impacts of visitors on a National Park. The
students were given a pre- and post-test to determine whether their
knowledge of the environment changed. Students were randomly assigned to
either the individual learning condition (students interrogated the model as

i s) or the ive learning ition (students interrogated the
model with one other student). There was a significant increase in the
environmental knowledge score for those students in the collaborative
learning condition, but not in the individual learning condition. The
implications of this finding for the use of system dynamics models in
educational settings are discussed.

A Research on Systems Thinking Based on Three
Dimensions Thought

Nowadays, the performance measurement system has been well developed.
And the relations between these performance measures are playing important
roles in management science. However, the effective method to analyze these
relations is still underdeveloped and attracts more and more concerns. After
reviewing relevant research, by adopting and further extending the essential
theories of Systems Thinking, we propose a three-dimensional Systems
Thinking to achieve better analysis, control and decision-making. In this
paper, the rationality of the three-dimensional thought is proved first, and the
modelling method is then provided in theory. Finally, a manufacturing
enterprise is illustrated as an example for practical implementation.

System Dynami

: Publication Metrics (2000-2005)

System Dynamics (SD) would like to increase its influence and promote its

ional approach to und ding and solving significant problems.
This paper attempts to capture a snapshot of SD research topics, and
publications 2000-2005 as a metric of the scope of SD domains and
publication venues. The questions addressed by this paper follow: What are
the frequently published topics? What may be the emerging topics? Where do
SD authors frequently publish? To this end, 35, 920,686 documents were
search. Of the total, 935 met the search criteria. After review and analysis of
the 935 documents, only 302 qualified as relevant SD material for further
analysis.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jeff W. Trailer

jtrailer@ csuchico.edu

California State University Chico
Department of Management
Chico CA 95929-0031

Keyvan Vakili

keyvanv@ gmail.com

Sharif University of Technology
Sth floor No 161 Shahid Akbari St
Seyd Jamaleddine Asadabadi Ave
Tehran Iran

Mohammad Taghi Isaai
isaai@ sharif.edu

Sharif University of Technology
Graduate School of Mgt and E

The Problem of Delayed Discharge in Labor and
Delivery

Enloe Medical Center is a non-profit community hospital in Chico,
California. Among the many services they provide is a Labor and Delivery
Department. While mothers are routinely admitted from 1:00pm to 1:00am,
they are generally discharged between 10:00am and 5:00pm. This results in a
generic bell curve behavior pattern for patient occupancy during the daytime.
Hospitals are reimbursed for inpatient services in two major ways: either on a
per diem basis, or by diagnosis related groups (DRG). Either way, the
revenue to the hospital remains the same, regardless if the patient is
discharged at 4:00am or 4:00pm. In California, state mandated nurse to
patient ratios require hospitals to maintain a minimum level of nurse staffing
for inpatient services. Thus, as the patient census rises during the day, so
must the number of nurses on staff. This is the problem studied; costs
expended for patient discharge delays.

A System Dynamics Approach to Strategic
Assessment of Transportation Demand
Management Policies: Tehran Case Study

Transportation Demand Management has proved efficacious where

increasing transportation supply seems ineffective or financially infeasible.
Demand management comprises a wide range of policies most of which are
different in nature. Assessing impact of various strategies in Transportation

Azadi Ave
Tehran Iran

Arash Jalali Barsari

a jalalibarsari@ gmail.com

University of Science and Research
Sth floor No 161 Shahid Akbari St
Seyd Jamaleddine Asadabadi Ave
Tehran Iran

Erik van Zijderveld
erik vanzijderveld@ tno.nl
TNO

PO Box 96864

2509 JG The Hague

The Netherlands

Demand and d ping a system dynamic model to compare
diverse policies are the main outcome of this study. Investigating impact of
TDM strategies in Tehran and their impotence specifically in encouraging
private vehicle users to use public transportation is the focus of this paper.
Visualizing prospective changes in share of these different modes of
transportation and presenting potential strategies towards achieving TDM
goals are included to substantiate effectiveness of the approach.

MARVEL - principles of a method for semi-
qualitative system behaviour and policy analysis

Obtaining insight into the effects of policy interventions is often a difficult
matter. A new method to obtain a first insight into those effects is presented
in this paper. The basis of the method is a Causal Loop Diagram to which
information on causal relations and variables is added. Part of the information
is expressed in qualitative terms. This Method to Analyse Relations between
Variables using Enriched Loops (MARVEL) takes proposed interventions as
a starting point. Interventions are interpreted as imposed changes on selected
model variables representing intervention points. A new feature is that causal
relations are no longer passive but active model elements. They propagate the

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 161

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Hoda Vaziri

hoda_vaziri@ yahoo.com

Sharif University of Technology
Azadi Ave

11365 Tehran

Tran

Mohammad Akbarpour
mohamwad@ yahoo.com

Sharif University of Technology

10 4th Andishe Alley Andishe St 2nd Fl
Shahid Beheshti Ave

Tehran Iran

Margarita Vazquez
myvazquez@ ull.es

Universidad de La Laguna
Facultad de Filosofia

Campus de Guajara

38201 La Laguna Tenerife Spain

Manuel Liz

manuli2@ ull.es
Universidad de La Laguna
Facultad de Filosofia
Campus de Guajara

La Laguna Tenerife Spain

John J. Voyer

voyer@ usm.maine.edu

University of Southern Maine
School of Business

96 Falmouth Street PO Box 9300
Portland ME 04104-9300 USA

162 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

changes through the model in a time-dispersed way. MARVEL determines
how this causes (other) variables representing the model’s performance to
change in the desired direction at selected moments in time. MARVEL can
be used for policy development, policy analysis and policy evaluation
problems.

An investigation into Electricity Subsidy Dynamics
by a System Dynamics Approach

After the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran had to face another challenge: the
war against Iraq. This challenge forced the government to help people by
granting subsidy to essential goods such as bread, drugs and different kinds
of energy - especially electric power which is one of the major industries in
every country. This policy helped people have an easier life during the war,
but as the famous law of supply — demand tells us, the lower the price of any
good, the higher demand for that good is predicted and this low price of
energy made Iran one of the most and worst energy consumers in the world.
This high rate of consumption will cause lots of problems such as lack of
electricity and financial pressure on the government. In this paper, a system
dynamics model is developed to simulate the situations of Iran’s electric
power industry since 15 years ago, assuming the effect of people’s pressure
on the government and the pressure of the government to decrease subsidy.
The main model is built on two positive and negative loops and the results
are compared with the real statistics. Then, two policies are applied to the
model: education and increasing the price.

System Dynamics and Philosophy. A constructivist

Theoretical reflections about System Dynamics (SD) have usually been
grounded in the developments of what can be called “general philosophy of
science”. In our paper, a philosophical approach more sensitive to the
peculiarities of SD is proposed that is closely linked to the recent
constructivist proposal of John Searle and to the expressivist theses of Robert
Brandom. We will focus on three very important conceptual problems —the
ontological problem of realism concerning the structures postulated by SD
models, the epi ical problem of the ‘y power of SD models,
and the methodological charge of merely producing a kind of “patchwork”
when building of SD models--, arguing that by combining the constructivist
and pi of those authors in a certain way
would offer a better understanding of scientific and technical activities such
as SD modelling.

A System Dynamics Approach to Improving An
Advising System for Business School
Undergraduates
A School of Business located in the northeast United States annually

administers the AACSB/EBI Undergraduate Business Exit Survey to all its
graduating seniors. One area that has consistently received low marks has

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Susan Bassi Brown
University of Southern Maine

Nathan Gage
University of Southern Maine

Dmitry Kovalenko
University of Southern Maine

Travis Williams
University of Southern Maine

Khaled Wahba

khaled. wahba@ riti.org

Cairo University

Regional IT Institute

IIA Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211 Egypt

Khaled Wahba
khaled.wahba@ riti.org

Cairo University

Regional IT Institute

11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211 Egypt

been advising. The Associate Dean of the Business School wanted to address
the situation and see how the system could be improved. Through interviews
with the Associate Dean and the advising staff, a consulting team compiled
information about the system and identified the major problem as congestion
in the system. Recommendations included changing the criteria for students
required to use the system, simplifying the curriculum, better promoting the
advising function to students, increasing the use of automated advising tools,
expanding the length of the advising period, and adding advising staff or
having faculty do advising. So far, the School of Business has adopted only
one of these recommendations—curricular simplification—which may
improve the situation as time passes. The School is currently examining other
options, especially changing the criteria for required advising and having the
faculty get involved in advising.

Leukemia Dynamics: Understanding the
Mechanism of Stem Cell Transplant for the
Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (CML) Treatment

Leukemia progresses through certain phases starting with slow progressing
phases, following in the stability, than transition to acute phase, where there
is no more control on the disease. The types of leukemia are grouped by how
quickly the disease develops and gets worse. Leukemia is either chronic (gets
worse slowly) or acute (gets worse quickly). Treatment depends on a number
of factors, including the type of leukemia, the patient’s age, whether
leukemia cells are present in the cerebrospinal fluid, and whether the
leukemia has been treated before. It also may depend on certain features of
the leukemia cells. Depending on the type and extent of the disease, patients
may have chemotherapy, biological therapy, radiation therapy, or bone
marrow transplantation. The objective of the current research is to address the
dynamics of Leukemia’s development with the attempts to understand how
does the body respond to different type of treatment.

Leukemia Dynamics:The Role of the Immune
System against Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia
(CML)

Nowadays, the definite cause of leukemia is still a mystery, certain factors
are known to increase the risk of developing the disease like radiations and
other factors. There is no way to predict or prevent leukemia. The types of
leukemia are grouped by how quickly the disease develops and gets worse.
Leukemia is either chronic (gets worse slowly) or acute (gets worse quickly).
There is an abundance of evidence that the immune system plays a critical
role in the control of (Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia) CML but the exact
mechanism of action remains unclear A mathematical model for the human
immune system’s response to CML in a hypothetical patient will be proposed
with the purpose to help identify promising directions for experimental
research on treatments for patients with CML.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 163

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Wayne Wakeland
wwakeland@ gmail.com

Portland State University

Systems Science Program (SYSC)
PO Box 751

Portland OR 97207 USA

Wei Yang Wang

wyang@ cc.kuas.edu.tw

National Kaohsiung Univ of Applied Sci
415 Chien-Kung Road

807 Kaohsiung

Taiwan

Ya-tsai Tseng

ytiseng@ thu.edu.tw

Tunghai University

Dept of Business Administration
407 Taichung

Taiwan

Kim D. Warren

kwarren@ london.edu

London Business School
Strategy Dynamics Solutions Ltd
131-151 Gt Titchfield Street
London W1W SBB UK

164 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Modeling Fishery Regulation & Compliance: A
Case Study of the Yellowtail Rockfish

Motivated by declining fish populations and the apparent inability of
regulatory agencies to manage important fisheries, this research measures the
accuracy of a fishery model that explicitly models the regulatory process and
the resulting degree of compliance by fishers. The method involved careful
review and enhancement of a prior model with a more limited regulatory sub
model,and then measuring, for both models, the mean absolute error of model
calculated values for historical s ig biomass, biological
catch, and harvest. The most recent five 3 years of data were held back so that
model prediction error could also be computed. Results indicated that
although the fitness error for the enhanced model was significantly less than
the prior model (23% vs. 38%), predictions were improved only for one of
the three The impli for seeking to end

model fishery management processes are sobering. Policy makers on the
other hand will likely see the results as support for their instinctual
skepticism regarding policy models.

Window of Opportunity to Grow in Internet
Economics: Explore the Growth Dynamics of
Taiwan’s Online Game Industry

In this paper, we use the system dynamics approach to build up a model
about the growth dynamics of online game industry in Taiwan. With the
system dynamics model, it is found that there once existed a short period
time, which is referred to as "the window of opportunity" in this paper, for
Taiwan’s domestic online game industry to grow. The window of opportunity
was shortly open when Taiwan's online game market started to grow.
However, insufficient R&D capability and time delays in expanding R&D
capacity and game development process led to the waste of the market
opportunity. The market as a whole got saturated so quickly that agents,
potential industrial entrants, and off-line games providers are no longer
interested in developing domestic online games. To system dynamist, the
analysis of temporal equilibrium between different sets of forces, instead of
analyzing individual loop gain, can be an interesting direction for system re-
design and improvement.

Standard Business Architectures for Engaging
Management

System dynamics professionals have sought ‘standard’ models for tackling
business issues. Finding similar structures in different contexts encourages
the idea that modelling efficiency would increase if it could start with part-
built models. On the other hand, since each situation is unique, modelling

should arguably start with an open mind and develop a structure specific to

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Kim D. Warren

kwarren@ london.edu

London Business School
Strategy Dynamics Solutions Ltd
131-151 Gt Titchfield Street
London W1W SBB UK

Lars Weber

lars.weber@ tu-cottbus.de

Brandenburg Univ of Technology Cottbus
Lieberoser Str 7A

03046 Cottbus

Germany

that situation to avoid the risk of imposing an inappropriate diagnosis and
solution. Nevertheless, organisations of similar types consist of similar stocks
of resources — e.g. retailers have stores, consumers and products, consulting
firms have clients and fessi staff. Me -, those often go
through recognised stages of development and relate to each other in standard
ways. These common resources and structures provide a robust foundation
for models, and enable discussion to move on quickly to investigating why
resources are being won or lost, discovering feedback effects whose
existence is supported by evidence, and solving the real challenges. This has
the further advantage of leaving a model of how an organisation functions
that can remain valid (with continuous development) into the future. This
poster session will illustrate a number of such common business architectures
and their use.

Connecting System Dynamics with Management
Disciplines and Methods

System i i see i ly greater scope for the
adoption of their method i in many fields than has been achieved to date, and
regularly debate how faster adoption might be achieved. Successful
interventions seem to depend on recognising the frames-of-mind already
shared by the target audience and building on those, rather than portraying
system d: ics solutions as fu ly different — and by implication
‘better’. These considerations certainly apply in the management field, where
system i i to struggle for i amongst acad
consultants and ¢ executives alike. Yet strong connections can be made to
some of the i in subjects, to the analytical
methods commonly deployed, and to standard problem-solving procedures.
Making these connections explicit might allow system dynamics practitioners
to ‘start from the same place’ when engaging with business academics and
practitioners, and thus raise the method’s profile and adoption.

Understanding Recent Developments in Growth
Theory

The growth theory has, through the so-called ‘endogenous’ or new growth
theory, taken on decisive impulses. This contribution delivers an overview of
the various extensions without going into detail about the mathematical
observations and the main focus on supply-side orientated approaches. The
main goals of the growth theory are to understand the exponential climb of
the population’s income or also the per&#8209;capita income and to draw
conclusions for policy makers. The paper uses stock-flow-graphs to visualize
the major loops. Because changes tend to be incremental I adopt standard
textbook models first. All models are used in economic teaching with
dditional simul and i Later on students learn to modify those

models.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 165

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Henry Birdseye Weil
weilco@ compuserve.com

MIT

Sloan School of Management

50 Memorial Drive Room E52-541
Cambridge MA 02142-1347 USA

Christian Weitert
cweitert@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
University of Mannheim
Schloss

68131 Mannheim

Germany

David Wheat
dwheat@ wheatresources.com
University of Bergen
Nedre Fjellsmug 6

5018 Bergen

Norway

Application of System Dynamics to Corporate
Strategy: An Evolution of Issues and Frameworks

This paper discusses five landmark projects which highlighted issues and
produced frameworks that became important building blocks in the
application of System Dynamics to corporate strategy. The early models were
primarily at the level of the firm. The first model described in the paper
captures the tension among conflicting performance objectives and shows
how the conflicts impact mid-term company performance. The second model
represents the behavior of an R&D organization as it responds to changing
pressures and direction from corporate management. Over time the focus
shifted to market behavior and competition. The third model explains
powerful long-term ics that lead to" ditization" of products and
services. Recent work analyzed the social dynamics of markets, e.g., as they
affect innovation and technology substitution. The fourth model in the paper

the ics of innovative industries, building on an
extensive body of research and publications. The final model focuses on the
market impacts of social factors, e.g., trust, fashion, the characteristics of lead
users, how trends are perceived and extrapolated, the flow of information,
bandwagon effects, and network effects. The most important lessons are
about the critical roles of i social, and ps ical factors in
important business decisions and competitive behaviors.

Analysis of Investor Behavior in an Artificial Stock
Market

Building upon previous work in the field of behavioral finance and artificial
stock markets, a model i P discrete and i interrelations is
developed. Three different investor types are modeled as individual agents:
fundamental analysts, technical analysts and noise traders. They differ in
their intrinsic pricing mechanism and represent trading strategies that are
observed in financial markets. The developed structure is able to reproduce
the formation of speculative bubbles and other stochastical anomalies that are
characteristic for financial time series.

The Feedback Method of Teaching
Macroeconomics: Is it Effective?

The conventional method of teaching macroeconomics to undergraduates
relies on static graphs, an approach with documented pedagogical problems.
In contrast, the feedback method uses feedback loop diagrams and interactive
computer simulation models. This paper describes the feedback method and
reports on four experiments designed to test its effectiveness. Two
experiments examined student preferences for methods of learning
macroeconomics; for example, using static graphs or a feedback loop
diagram. The experimental designs were quite different, but the results were
the same—a significant majority preferred the feedback method. The most
commonly cited reason: feedback loops enable students to visualize an
economic process. The third and fourth experiments addressed the

166 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jason M. Wilks
jason_wilks@ pioj.gov.jm
Planning Institute of Jamaica
10-16 Grenada Way
Kingston 5

Jamaica

Weishuang Qu
Millennium Institute

2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650

Arlington VA 22201-3357
USA

Matteo Pedercini
matteois@ hotmail.com
Millennium Institute

2200 Wilson Blvd Ste 650
Arlington VA 22201

USA

Ines Winz
i.winz@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland

Private Bag 92019 Auckland Mail Centre

Auckland 1142
New Zealand

Gary Brierley
gbrierley@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
School of Geography
Private Bag 92019
Auckland New Zealand

Ines Winz
i.winz@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland

Private Bag 92019 Auckland Mail Centre

Auckland 1142
New Zealand

performance question. In the third experiment, students showed more
understanding of GDP when they had access to a stock-and-flow feedback
diagram of the economy. In the final experiment, students using feedback
loop diagrams displayed more understanding of business cycle dynamics than
those who had access to a conventional aggregate supply and demand graph.
Teaching undergraduates to search for feedback structure in the economy and
using computer simulation to connect structure with behavior appears to be a
promising method for teaching macroeconomics.

A Dynamic Analysis of Organized Crime in
Jamaica

In March 2006, the Government of Jamaica engaged the Millennium Institute
to assist in the development of a modern planning tool with the capability to
integrate relevant sectors of the Jamaican society. An important component
of the model is the sector for organized crime behaviour in Jamaica. The
purpose of this paper is to explain the development of the organized crime
sector within the T-21 Jamaica model and demonstrate the possible utility of
system dynamics in facilitating discussions on public policy. The organized
crime sector ines the of young, Pp d males living in
impoverished, urban areas into gang members and some possible outcomes
of this behaviour. The validity of the model is tested by its ability to match
Jamaica's historical data for gang-related murders and shootings.Possible
interventions are explored with the model suggesting that social interventions
would have a more immediate impact on reducing crime rates but increased
investment in the security forces would eventually lead to an even greater
reduction in crime in the long run.

The Use of System Dynamics Simulation in
Integrated Water Resources Management

In this paper we discuss the use of system dynamics as a methodology with
which to address i complex p in water

management. Problems in regional planning and river basin management,
urban water management, flooding and irrigation exhibit important short-
term and long-term effects, and are often contentious issues with high
potential for conflict. We argue that system dynamics combined with
stakeholder involvement provides an appropriate methodology to address
these issues effectively. We trace the theoretical and practical evolution of
system dynamics in these areas over the past 40 years. From this review of
the literature and selected case studies we identify and discuss a number of
best practices and common pitfalls in applications of system dynamics.

Participatory Methods in Environmental System
Dynamics Projects

Today there is widespread agreement that participatory methods are useful if
not legally required to understand and effectively address environmental
management problems. What participatory methods should be used in which
situations and particularly how they should be applied are still insufficiently

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 167

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Gary Brierley
gbrierley@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
School of Geography
Private Bag 92019
Auckland New Zealand

Eric F. Wolstenholme
e.wolstenholme@ btinternet.com
Symmetric SD Limited

47 Rugby Road

Brighton BN1 6EB UK

David Monk

david. monk@ symmetricsd.co.uk
Symmetric SD Limited

47 Rugby Road

Brighton BNI6EB UK

David Todd

david.todd@ symmetricsd.co.uk
Symmetric SD Limited
The Grain Store

127 Gloucester Road
Brighton BN] 4AF UK

Douglas McKelvie
douglas.mckelvie@ symmetricsd.co.uk
18 James Street Flat 4

Edinburgh EH15 2DW UK

Patrick John Gillespie
patrick gillespie@ slam.nhs.uk

Lambeth Adult Integrated Mental Health

SLAM Town Hall Lambeth
London UK

Eric F. Wolstenholme
e.wolstenholme@ btinternet.com
Symmetric SD Limited

47 Rugby Road

Brighton BNI 6EB

UK

David Monk

david.monk@ symmetricsd.co.uk
Symmetric SD Limited

47 Rugby Road

Brighton BNI6EB

UK

168 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

addressed questions. There is limited understanding about the
interconnections between project purpose, participatory methods and their
application. Participation methods are often selected on the basis of
familiarity or cost considerations. We argue that these trade-offs may
compromise the potential outcomes and effectiveness of a project. To address
these shortcomings we summarise current knowledge and understanding in
the public participation literature. System dynamics projects can benefit

ially from public par ion particularly through participative
modelling. Much research effort focuses on group model building. For
projects where group model building is not a prudent choice, we suggest and
discuss alternatives.

Reallocating Mental Health Resources in the
Borough of Lambeth, London, UK

This paper describes the application of system dynamics to assist decision
making in the reallocation of resources within a specialist mental health trust
in south London. Mental health service providers are under increasing
pressure to both reduce their own costs and to move resources upstream in
mental health patient pathways to facilitate treating more people, whilst not
compromising service quality. The investigation focuses on the use of the
model to examine the case for converting an existing specialist service ward
in a mental health hospital into a ‘triage’ ward, where patients are assessed
and prioritised during a short stay for either discharge or onward admission to
a normal ward. Various policies for the transition are studied together with
the implications for those patients needing post hospital services and
relocation within the community. The model suggests that the introduction of
a triage ward could meet the strategic requirement of a 10% shift away from
institutional care and into community services. The paper includes a number
of statements from the management team involved on the benefits of system
dynamics to their thinking.

Denis O'Rourke
denis.orourke@ lambethpct.nhs.uk
Lambeth PCT

Town Hall Lambeth

London UK

The contribution of system dynamics to cost benefit
analysis

This paper presents an example of the value that system dynamics can add to
conventional cost benefit analysis. A static cost benefit analysis is described
for planning the supply of new mental health services across the UK and the
development of this analysis into a system dynamics model is explained. By
developing a bigger picture of the issue, both upstream to where patients go
after treatment and downstream from where patients originate in the labour
market, and by simulation of the enhanced vision, the dynamic cost benefit
analysis is shown to advance understanding of the issue and plans. It
questions the magnitude of the potential benefit, introduces phasing issues,
surfaces structural insights, takes account of the dynamics of the labour

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

David Todd

david.todd@ symmetricsd.co.uk
Symmetric SD Limited
The Grain Store

127 Gloucester Road
Brighton BN] 4AF UK

Kazem Yaghootkar
yaghootkar@ yahoo.com
Manchester Business School
Booth Street East Room C1
Manchester M15 6PB

UK

Lars-Uno Roos
Karlstad University
Service Research Centre
SE-651 88 Karlstad
Sweden

Kaoru Yamaguchi
kaoru3@ muratopia.org
Doshisha University

521 Minamidani Aihara

Goshiki-cho Sumoto Hyogo 656-1325

Japan

market and forces linkages between the plan and other initiatives. An overall
conclusion is that dynamic factors are often left out of cost benefit analysis
simply because they cause too much complexity for decision makers,
whereas system dynamics allows these factors to be included without
masking the clarity of the case. The paper suggests that cost benefit analysis
and system dynamics are very complimentary and should be used together in
strategic planning.

The Role of Systemic Effects on Project
Performance in Multiproject Environments

While the focus of the project management literature has been on the
management of single projects, the management of multiproject
environments is largely neglected. In this research I am focusing on
mutiproject environments which exist within a single firm (hereafter called
Alpha). Through my i igation in this i i Texplored
root causes for project inefficiencies which rather than being possible to
attribute to source within each single project boundary, are caused by the
effects which I term them systemic effects. System effects are dynamics
triggered by the complex linear , nonlinear and time delayed interaction of
large number of factors. I develop a model which explains the dynamics
through which the systemic effects deteriorate the performance of the
projects in this organization. The model is useful in creating awareness
among the managers about the lack of holistic approach i in decision making
and the effects of subopti ions in this env

Balance of Payments and Foreign Exchange
Dynamics - SD Macroeconomic Modeling (4) -

This paper tries to model a dynamic determination of foreign exchange rate
in an open macroeconomy in which goods and services are freely traded and
financial capital flows efficiently for highest returns. For this purpose it
becomes necessary to employ a new method contrary to standard methods of
dealing with a foreign sector as adjunct to macroeconomy; that is, an

duction of another as a foreign sector. Within this new
framework of open macroeconomy, transactions among domestic and foreign
sectors are handled according to the principle of accounting system dynamics
developed by the author, and the balance of payments is attained. For the
sake of simplicity of analyzing foreign exck , macro variables
such as GDP, its price level and interest rate are treated as outside
parameters. Then, eight scenarios are produced and examined to see how
exchange rate, trade balance and financial investment, etc. respond to such
outside parameters. To our surprise, expectations of foreign exchange rate
turn out to play a crucial role for destabilizing trade balance and financial
investment. The impact of official intervention on foreign exchange and a
path to default is also discussed.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 169

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Jacqueline Ming-Shih Ye
jye@ sloan.mitedu

MIT

3012 Quail Run

Round Rock TX 78681

USA

Wenjun Ying
wyi062@ webmail.uib.no
University of Bergen
Fantoft Postbox 448
5075 Bergen

Norway

Jiong You

jiong.you@ gmail.com

Fudan University

Dept of Management Science
School of Management
Shanghai 200433 PR China

Qifan Wang

qfwang@ fudan.edu.cn

Fudan University

Room 1701 Building I Lane 1235
Lu Jia Bang Rd

200011 Shanghai China

Improving Maintenance Operation through
Transformational Outsourcing

Oo i i to third-party has become an
increasingly popular option for manufacturers to achieve tactical and/or
strategic objectives. Though simple in concept, maintenance outsourcing is
difficult in i ‘specially in a cost-sensitive envi . This project
examines the Full Service business under ABB Ltd to understand the key
factors that drive the success of an outsourced maintenance operation. We
present a qualitative causal loop diagram developed based on the case study
of Kinleith Pulp and Paper Mill in New Zealand. The diagram describes the
interconnections among various technical, economic, relationship, and
humanistic factors and shows how cost-cutting initiatives can frequently
undermine labor relationship and tip the plant into the vicious cycle of
reactive, expensive work practices. The model also explains how Kinleith
achieved a remarkable turnaround under ABB, yielding high performance
and significant improvements in labor relations. A case study of Tasman Pulp
and Paper Mill provides a contrasting case where success has been more
difficult. Results point to the importance of creating sufficient resources
(“slack”) to implement improvement activities and pace implementation
based on pre-existing dynamics on site.

Modeling Chinese Steel Industry

This paper uses system dynamics to represent the process of steel-making in
China on the basis of statistical data and the analysis of the current industry
structure. Simulation results include the projections of medium and long term
trends of the Chinese steel industry for the next 50 years. In particular, it
reveals the current and potential future problems in the Chinese steel

industry, includi I pollution, production structure, and
overinvestment on new capital. It is concluded that restructuring production
b ing BOF with EAF technology, i ing the usage rate of steel

iy
scrap and Chinese government’s macro control on investment on steel
industry, are feasible solutions. Unfortunately none of them can solve all the
problems in Chinese steel industry. As a consequence, it is necessary for
China to consider environmental protection and sustainable development
when boosting its economy.

Investigation of Impacts of Dynamic Concurrence
on Development Project Manageability

Shrinking cycle time with concurrent engineering can make projects more
difficult to manage. However, the extent, nature and conditions of the causal
ship between concurrence and bility are not well d.
This study uses Degree of Concurrence and Degree of Concurrence
Relationship Curvature as two measurements of dynamic concurrence based
on Process Concurrence Relationship, an improved tool for describing and
modeling concurrence, and uses the standard deviation of Process Work
Queue Acceleration as Manageability Index to model project manageability.

170 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Showing H. Young
young@ cm.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University

Department of Business Management

PO Box 59-35
Kaohsiung Taiwan

Shyh-Jane Li

d9041813@ student.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University
PO Box 59-35

Kaohsiung 804

Taiwan ROC

Yu-Ying Huang

artimas@ bm.nsysu.edu.tw

National Sun Yat-Sen University
Dept of Business Administration
Kaohsiung Taiwan

An-ho Tsai

m924011014@ student.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University
Dept of Business Management
PO Box 59-35

Kaohsiung 804

Taiwan ROC

Géneng Yiicel

g.yucel@ tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Jaffalaan 5 Room B-3-280
2628 BX Delft

The Netherlands

Yaman Barlas

ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr

Bogazici University

Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul

Turkey

Single-phase development process model is applied as a data collection tool
to investigate the causal relationship between concurrence and manageability.
Two hypotheses were developed to test the causal relationship separately
with the two different experiments - Linear and Nonlinear. The study finds a
significant inverse relationship between degree of concurrence and project

bility with linear concurrence i ip. When the concurrence
relationship was changed from linear to nonlinear the relationship became
quite unexpected. The results improve the understanding of the causal
relationship between dynamic concurrence and manageability.

Analyze word-of-mouth effect in terms of macro-
behavior: The herd behavior in Chinese market

Though world-of- ith (WOM) is a pervasive and
intriguing phenomenon, little is known on its effect in terms of macro-
behavior. The purpose of this study is to investigate the WOM effect on
macro-level marketing to explain the herd behavior of Chinese consumers.
To achieve our goal, the system dynamics was applied build a simulation
model for a popular herd behavior happening in Macao, Hong Kong, and
Taiwan, i.e., buying Portuguese custard tarts. Both micro-behavior and
macro-behavior were considered in this model and the linkage between
micro-behavior and macro-behavior was specially emphasized. The results
showed that the market of Portuguese custard tarts would crash quickly under
fast distribution of WOM and herd behavior while considering the limitation
of capacity.

Pattern-based System Design/Optimization

Despite its success and growing practitioner base, System Dynamics (SD)
still lacks a strong and rich enough support toolbox, i.e. a set of formal
mathematical tools that can support the modeler/practitioner in various stages
including model identification, calibration, behavior analysis, policy design
and sensitivity analysis. The study presented in this paper is an attempt
towards developing such a support tool that can be used for pattern-based
parameter search, which may be utilized in model identification, validation
and policy analysis stages. The tool mainly incorporates a 2D pattern
recognition algorithm and an optimization heuristic in order to search values
for selected model parameters that yield a model behavior similar to the
desired one in terms of pattern characteristics. The proposed tool is
implemented, and a series of test experiments are conducted on three sample
models in order to reveal the performance of it. Based on these experiments,

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 171

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Erich K. O. Zahn
erich.zahn@ bwi.uni-stuttgart.de
Universitat Stuttgart
Riidesheimer Str 59

68309 Mannheim

Germany

Qi Zhang

qizhang@ mitedu

MIT

550 Memorial Drive Apt 14B
Cambridge MA 02139

USA

172 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

the primary assessment about the proposed method is that its performance is
quite satisfactory and it stands as a promising automated parameter search
tool, which can be utilized even in the cases where data series representing
the desired model behavior is missing.

Strategic Modelling in a Learning Factory

Within an interdisciplinary research project on “Advanced Manufacturing
Engineering” we are currently developing a “Learning Factory” at University
of Stuttgart. This project is one of our contributions to the European initiative
“Manufuture”. So far the first version of the “Learning Factory” has been
established. One of its core elements focuses on SD-based modelling. Here
students can use simulators that deal with specific problems — like

ici side effects of p for efficiency imp! and
allow them to conduct their own tests and policy experiments. The main
Purposes of our strategic modelling efforts are to better understand the

f

oO fe ‘ing systems and to design policies for
improving the performance of such systems. Special topics under
investigation are: - Intra- and i SUF ly chain and d
cost effects; - Win-loose versus win-win partnerships in vertical

- Co-evolution of ion costs and Pp caused by
fshoring activities; - Adaptiveness of fi ing systems

(when designed as internal and external networks). By modelling and
simulating the relationships among the different parts of investigated systems
we may identify potential problems, avoid strategic pitfalls, and take steps to
better design production systems and to improve their performance.

A Study of Diesel Vehicle Diffusion in Europe:
Calibration and Analysis of a Consumer
Acceptance and Adoption Model

While large scale diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) is widely
anticipated, the mechanisms that determine their success or failure are ill
understood. Analysis of an AFV transition model developed at MIT has
revealed that AFV diffusion dynamics are particularly sensitive to
consumers’ decisions as influenced by social exposure to AF Vs. While some
empirical research in this area exists, uncertainty in these parameters remains
high. Following principles of partial model testing in this paper we report on
research that examines the social exposure parameters. We focus on
empirical accounts of diffusion involving diesel passenger vehicles in Europe
using the historical data of diesel vehicle registrations and installed base in
six European countries - France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and United
Kingdom. To complete diffusion data sets we generate synthetic data from
1970 to 2005. Confidence interval testing for model parameters is conducted
using the bootstrapping method. The results from the calibrations yield
parameters that are in line with other marketing studies and help reduce
uncertainty in the social exposure parameters. Further, the analysis suggests
applicability of this model for alternative fuel vehicle markets and provides
further lessons for other AFV ition. We discuss chal

and avenues for further research.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Parallel and Poster Sessions continued

Nicole Zimmermann
zimmermann.nicole@ gmail.com
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss
68131 Mannheim

Germany

System-Dynamical Analysis of Mutability, Rational
and Emotional Commitment for Explaining Failure
to Change in Organizations

There exists a large body of literature on organizational change and on the
puzzling effect of change failure. This paper adds the often missing element
of combining several reasons for change inefficacy. These reasons for failure
to change are low systemic mutability (inertia), insufficient political, rational,
and i (resi ). Participation and dist are then
presented as one solution to the problem, relieving resistance and enhancing
employee commitment.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 173

Plenary Sessions

Santiago Arango Cyclical behaviour in electricity markets: an
santiago arango@ ifi.uib.no imental stud

University of Bergen experimental study
System Dynamics Group

PO 7800 This paper describes a laboratory experiment to study cyclical behaviour of
N-5020 Bergen electricity prices in deregulated electricity markets. We observe investment
Norway decisions in markets with five-producers, linear demand, and constant

marginal costs. The experiment has a four year investment lag and the

Erling Moxnes atl . u eel >
electricity generating capacity has a life time of 16 years. Oscillatory

erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no

University of Bergen behaviour results in investment activity and prices. The cyclical tendency is
Department of Geography stronger than in previous experimental studies with only one and two period
Fosswinckelsgt 6 investment lags. Average prices are closer to competitive equilibrium than in
5020 Bergen previous experiments. The results are consistent with bounded rationality
Norway theory; a simple heuristic produces fluctuations similar to those observed

when applied in a simulation model. Hence, the results corroborate
assumptions made in previous simulation studies.

Robert Y. Cavana Using system dynamics to analyse policy options for

bob.cavana@ vuw.ac.nz Hi
Victoria University of Wellington tobacco control in New Zealand

PO Box 600

Wellington This paper outlines a system dynamics model that has been developed to

New Zealand assist the Ministry of Health to evaluate the dynamic consequences of

Marti < tobacco control policies in New Zealand. The model consists of 4 sectors:
artin Tobias

population; smoking prevalences; second hand smoke; and tobacco

martin_tobias@ moh.govt.nz é aa : :
attributable deaths. The model is simulated for 20-30 years into the future.

Ministry of Health

PO Box 5013 The simulation package used is 'iThink', and a user interface is presented for
Wellington policy analysis. A range of illustrative scenarios are provided, including:
New Zealand business as usual; fiscal strategies involving less affordable cigarettes; harm

minimisation strategies involving either less addictive cigarettes or less toxic
cigarettes; and combinations of the above policies. The main output
variables (performance measures) include current smoking prevalence,
tobacco consumption, and tobacco attibutable mortality. Finally some
concluding comments are provided and areas for future model enhancement
are identified.

174 25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Plenary Sessions continued

Nicolas Dulac

ndulac@ mitedu

MIT

77 Massachusetts Ave Room 33-407
Cambridge MA 02139

USA

Brandon D. Owens

owensbd@ mit.edu

Massachusetts Institute of Technology
77 Massachusetts Avenue, Bldg 33-407C
Cambridge MA 02139

USA

Nancy G. Leveson
leveson@ mit.edu
MIT

John Stephen Carroll
joarroll@ mitedu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
E52-563

Cambridge MA 02139

USA

Jay W. Forrester
jforestr@ mitedu

MIT

29 King Lane

Concord MA 01742-4944
USA

A Hybrid Approach to the Creation of Dynamic
Risk Management Models

Traditionally, system dynamics models are created using the “standard
method”: A problem is identified, a dynamic hypothesis is based
on causal loop diagramming and reference mode definition, a stock and flow
structure is created to test the dynamic hypothesis, and finally, insights and
potential high-leverage policies are identified based on the resulting model.
In this paper, a hybrid approach for the creation of dynamic risk

models is i duced by ining system with the
STAMP accident model. The new approach relies heavily on system
dynamics concepts and retains the essence of the “standard method”, but the
structure of the models created is linked to the STAMP safety control
structure necessary to ensure safety in the entire lifecycle of complex
engineering systems. The main steps of the hybrid method are introduced
and the similarities and differences with the standard method are
emphasized. An example is provided based on a risk management modeling
project performed for the NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate
(ESMD).

System Dynamics—the Next Fifty Years

The first 50 years of system i ished an duction to the
field, and have shown the promise of achieving a better understanding of
complex systems in nature and human affairs. Now the field is on a plateau
ready to launch the next thrust forward. We can better understand the present
status of system dynamics by comparison to professions that developed
earlier. We are now at about the same state of advancement that engineering
was when MIT first opened its doors in 1865, or that medicine was in the
late 1800s when the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine was established. We
have yet as much to learn about high-order nonlinear feedback structures
around us as those earlier professions have learned about their fields in the
last 150 years. Now is time to plan how the next 50 years can start to close
this huge knowledge gap. Like the early days in more mature professions,
we do not yet have universities devoted to four- and six-year programs. Like
them at the beginning, we do not have the equivalent programs of science
and biology in grade school education to condition the public to the
challenges and opportunities to better understand the dynamic world of
nature, politics, i change, and social
stresses. Looking into the next 50 years, we see ....

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 175

Plenary Sessions continued

James M. Lyneis
jmlyneis@ verizon.net

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
PO Box 121

215 Landgrove Road

Weston VT 05161

USA

Dennis Meadows

lataillede@ aol.com

Laboratory for Interactive Learning
PO Box 844

Durham NH 03824

USA

Hazhir Rahmandad
hazhir@ vi.edu

Virginia Tech

Northern Virginia Center Rm 430
7054 Haycock Road

Falls Church VA 22043

USA

176 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

System Dynamics Applied to Project Management:
A Survey, Assessment, and Directions for Future
Research

Some of the most of system d. have been in
the aren of project management. Measured in terms of number of

number of practiti ic papers, value of consulting
revenues, and value to clients, “project dynamics” stands as a model for
success in the field. This presentation reviews the history of system
dynamics work in project management, organized into three categories: (1)
typical project dynamics and the underlying structures that create those
dynamics; (2) applications of system dynamics to project management
practice — success stories and policy messages; and (3) directions for future
research and writing.

Four Decades and Five Careers in System
Dynamics

Mastery of system dynamics gives one a variety of ways to be useful and
earn a living. Since my first course in Industrial Dynamics at MIT in the fall
of 1964, I have used SD in five careers: teacher, author, consultant, manager,
and investor. These careers require different levels of mastery. They offer
different possibilities for impact. And each has its own risks. I will describe
each of these roles briefly and indicate the benefits and costs that confront
anyone wishing to pursue that career.

Why myopic policies persist? Impact of growth
opportunities and competition

Several case studies have di d myopic allocation of or

resources among capabilities that payoff in short vs. long-term. We capture a
general class of organizational resource allocation problems in a simple
model that exhibits the typical before-bett

believed to be responsible for persistence of myopic policies. Next we
examine the endogeneity of resources and the impact of competitive
pressures on the efficiency of ion policies. End

competition are both shown to significantly shift the optimal allocation
towards myopic policies. Short-term policies become beneficial as they
strengthen the positive loop between performance, resources, and
capabilities. In fact strategic selection of allocation policy in a competitive
market can force the firms to allocate all the resources to the short-term
capability. These results provide an alternative explanation for the
persistence of myopic organizational decision-rules that does not rest on

p ical and learning

and

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Plenary Sessions continued

Jorgen Randers
jorgen.randers@ bi.no

Norwegian School of Management
Abbedisvingen 6

N-0280 Oslo

Norway

Edward Roberts

eroberts@ mit.edu

USA

Jack Pugh
jackpugh@ alum.mit.edu
Lincoln MA 01773
USA

David W. Packer

david packer@ alum.mit.edu
Systems Thinking Collaborative
7 Chestnut Lane

Bedford MA 01730

USA

The emergence of Limits to Growth Scenario 2:
The pollution crisis

The paper argues that current world developments are starting to resemble
the "pollution crisis" scenario in The Limits to Growth book from 1972.
Ongoing global warming increasingly demonstrate the reality of two major
structural assumptions in the Limits to Growth models: namely 1) long
reaction delays from pollution levels to corrective action, and 2) self-
reinforcing feedback from the pollution level to pollution absorption time,
and back to the pollution level. If left unchecked, these mechanisms could
generate a climate crisis in the 21st century. The paper seeks to highlight the
strength in high level system dynamics conceptualization.

System Dynamics Pioneers Panel Discussion

The early days of system dynamics were a time of enormous innovation,
enthusiasm and creativity. Several of the first students and research
assistants in the field of system dynamics, including Ed Roberts, Jack Pugh,
and Dave Packer will reflect on their experiences, the lessons learned, and
the enduring impact on their careers. Panelists will make introductory
remarks, followed by dialogue among the panelists and with the audience.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 177

Special and Convened Sessions

Jeanette C. Abad
jeanette.abad@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group

One Memorial Drive 16th floor
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

Bent Erik Bakken
beerikba@ online.no

Norwegian Defence Academy
Resource Management Division
FSTS

Akershus Oslo Mil Oslo 1 Norway

Joost Paul Bonsen
jpbonsen@ alum.mit.edu

Freedom Trail Walk

Jeanette Abad will be leading a walking tour of portions of Freedom Trail.
www.cityofboston.gov/freedomtrail. The Trail takes visitors to many of
Boston's most famous historical sites. The tour will be starting from the
lobby of the Seaport Hotel at 10am and end at Faneuil Hall. Comfortable
walking shoes and bottled water are recommended. $2 per person for public
transportation on the T is required. For further information contact Jeanette
Abad at jeanette.abad@paconsulting.com.

Military Roundtable

This roundtable is open to anyone with interest in defense, military and
related fields. All participants should include a brief (3-4 minutes)
presentation of their interest in the field and a list of historical, current and
future activities.

Guided Tour at MIT

Advance sign up is required; please send your sign up request to the Society
office noting day and number of people in your party. Available on Sunday,
July 29 and Thursday, August 2. The walking tour will start at Kendall
Square, near the MIT Sloan School, pass the Barta Building—the founding
home of Whirlwind, and end up at the MIT Museum (on Massachusetts
Avenue near Central Square). Total walking time is about 1.5 hours, and the
distance covered will be about 2 — 3 kilometers. The MIT Museum has
limited hours, in July and August: Monday-Friday 10 A.M. - 5:00 P.M
Saturday & Sunday: Noon - 5:00 P.M. The MIT Museum has generously
waived the entrance fee for tour participants. MIT Museum information: 265
Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, (617) 253-4444,
http://web.mit.edu/museum/index.html. Your tour guide is Joost Paul
Bonsen. Please note: 1. You must sign up for the tour, first-come, first serve.
Maximum 40 participants per tour. 2. You will be responsible for any
transportation costs to arrive at Kendall Square or return to the Seaport
Hotel. The tour is free, and there is no transportation cost associated with the
tour itself. 3. There will be stairs to climb; the tour is a “Walking Tour.”
Please wear appropriate footwear. 4. The tour will be cancelled if there is
bad weather.

178 25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Special and Convenend Sessions continued

Jeffrey Boyer
jeff_boyer@ plugpower.com
Plug Power Inc

968 Albany Shaker Road
Latham NY 12110 USA

Deborah Campbell
deborah-campbell@ comcast.net
System Dynamics Society
1569 Vireo Avenue
Sunnyvale CA 94087

USA

Richard G. Dudley
richard.dudley@ attglobal.net
PMB 239

14845 SW Murray Scholls Dr Ste 110

Beaverton OR 97007-9237
USA

Isaac Dyner
idyner@ yahoo.com

Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Carrera 18 #85-90 Apto 602
Bogota
Colombia

Business Roundtable

SDS Membership Roundtable

Are you a satisfied member of the System Dynamics Society? Would you
like to be? We'd like to hear from you either way. How can our Society best
serve you? The Society provides many activities and services for members,
including the SD Review, our annual conference, chapters and SIGs, to
name just a few. Attend this roundtable and tell us what you value about
Society membership, how our activities and services do or do not enhance
this value, what we could improve, and what you'd like the Society to offer
in the future.

Environmental Roundtable - Environmental Idea
Marketplace

This year the environmental roundtable will be run as an "Idea Marketplace."
At the start of the session anyone present will have the opportunity to stand
up and in one minute present an idea related to system dynamics and the
environment that they would like to discuss with colleagues. After the first
10 minutes or so a number of these ideas will have been collected, and the
session will break up into sub-groups to discuss these topics. Each sub-group
will quickly outline its interests and goals with an aim toward developing
common approaches, and actions, for working the selected issue. Each sub-
group will then report back to the whole group with a one page summary of
their discussions. Participants are urged to arrive with some key ideas ready
for discussion! Time will be limited.

Energy Roundtable

The celebration of the 50th anniversary of the SD Society could not offer a
better set up for launching the first roundtable of the Special Interest Group
on Energy. Energy has been a topic of interest within the SD society since
the early days. A large number of issues have been addressed: from national
energy planning to strategic intents in markets, from gas to power, and from
renewable to fossil sources. A i have been idirectional,
multidisciplinary and across large number of countries worldwide in topics
such as transport, industry efficiency and household preferences. The
Roundtable will focus on opportunities for SD research and intervention in
energy security, energy markets, energy and the environment and energy for
the poor and sustainability. This will be a special event for practitioners,

and rep ives of the i ity to meet and
share ideas.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 179

Special and Convened Sessions continued

Robert L. Eberlein
bob@ vensim.com

Ventana Systems Inc

17 Loker Street

Wayland MA 01778 USA

Qifan Wang

qfwang@ fudan.edu.cn

Fudan University

Room 1701 Building I Lane 1235
Lu Jia Bang Rd

200011 Shanghai China

Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany

Albany NY 12222 USA

Jose J. Gonzalez
josej.gonzalez@ hia.no

Agder University

Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509

NO-4898 Grimstad Norway

Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de

University of Berne

Interfacultary Ctr for General Ecology
Postbox 8573

3001 Berne Switzerland

Chintan Vaishnav

chintanv@ mit.edu

MIT

77 Massachusetts Ave Room E40-234
Cambridge MA 02139 USA

180 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Introduction to the System Dynamics Society

This event gives newer conference attendees an opportunity to learn more
about the Society and to meet a few of the officers. This is a very informal
meeting with a web tour of how to best use the Society website. Most of the
time will be spent on questions generated by the audience.

Security Roundtable

The members of the Security SIG come from the information security field,
criminology, air traffic security, organizational accidents and safety. The
inhomogeneous nature of the SIG has made it difficult to establish a stable
forum. Only the subgroup of information security (the Security Dynamics
Network) has a record of group-based activities. The strength of the SIG
comes from its social network. It has allowed the development of several

ive projects, the ization of workshops and the co-direction of
PhDs. Thus, the objective for the close future should be the consolidation of
all these activities and their formalization. To improve the status of the SIG,
the focus of the Roundtable shall be on activity. The goals of this
Roundtable are to identify and classify by scope and objectives the activities
of its individual members, and attempt to sketch a joint strategy (e.g. policy,
guidelines) that will allow the SIG to derive and achieve common objectives,
followed by examples of typical projects to expect in the future. Participants
will be asked to contribute to the Roundtable with facts about their relevant
professional activities, regarding the first goal, and with ideas about joint
activities at the strategy or project aggregation level, regarding the second
goal.

System Dynamics PhD Colloquium

The PhD Colloquium is a whole day event for Ph.D. students to present and
inspiringly discuss their current research about foundations, techniques,
tools, and applications in the field of System Dynamics. Junior and senior
System Dynamics practitioners meet here every year to exchange ideas
about their projects in an international atmosphere. The forthcoming 8th PhD
Colloquium will take place on Sunday the 29th July 2007 at the 25th
International Conference of the System Dynamics Society in Boston,

M i USA. Plenary ions will identify common problems
encountered by PhD researchers using System Dynamics. Each presentation

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Special and Convenend Sessions continued

Andreas GréBler

agroe@ gmx.de

Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Postbus 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands

Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany

Albany NY 12222 USA

Andreas GréBler

agroe@ gmx.de

Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Postbus 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen

The Netherlands

Robert L. Eberlein
bob@vensim.com
Ventana Systems Inc
17 Loker Street
Wayland MA 01778
USA

James M. Lyneis

jmlyneis@ verizon.net

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
PO Box 121

215 Landgrove Road

Weston VT 05161

USA

Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@ albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany

Albany NY 12222

USA

will be followed by an extended discussion session, providing a unique
opportunity for learning among all attendants. Combined with a poster
session scheduled in the afternoon, we expect the all-day colloquium to be
an exciting event. More information is available at
www.sdstudentchapter.org.

Prospective Conference Host Meeting

The annual conference is the most important activity of the Society, and
therefore hosting it is a very important contribution to the Society. In
addition, being a host for this event can bring fame (sorry, no fortune) to the
hosting individuals and organization, and attract local interest in the field. In
this meeting we will discuss the timetable and activities involved in
preparing a bid to host the fe the requii fora ful bid,
and the i fora fe We will also discuss the
Society’s schedule for conference site rotation, and the role of SIGs and
Chapters in conferences. Please attend this meeting if you have any interest
in hosting a future conference.

Conference Budgeting Workshop for hosting a
Society conference
This workshop will show how the Society deals with budgeting for a

conference, the budgeting timeline, and what is required financially. This
workshop is open to anyone interested in our conferences.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 181

Special and Convened Sessions continued

Tim Haslett
thaslett@ bigpond.netau
Monash University
1/164 Highett Street
Richmond 3121 Victoria
Australia

John Sterman

jsterman@ mitedu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

Gary B. Hirsch

gbhirsch@ comcast.net

Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road

Wayland MA 01778 USA

Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting
3618 Avalon Court
Voorhees NJ 08043
USA

Roderick H. MacDonald

rod@ isdps.org

Initiative for SD in the Public Sector
300 G Milne Hall

University at Albany

Albany NY 12222

USA

182 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Beer Game World Championship

Whether you have led the game or never played, be sure to come. Have fun
while learning how to facilitate the game. The game will be followed by a
workshop debriefing on Thursday.

Special Convened Session: Simulation-Based
Learning Environments

Simulation-Based Learning Environments include Management Flight

i i Ids, Interactive Learning Envii and similar
approaches. These learning environments have been developed in a number
of areas such as business, health care, and education. The focus of this
session will be on different ways of supporting learning with SD models by
making those models and their lessons more accessible to users. This is
typically done by allowing users to manipulate the models themselves
through an interface, simulation game, guidance by well-designed didactic
materials, or other means. Papers on three very different applications will be
presented. One describes how didactic materials are used to guide students
through explorations of market dynamics. The second presents an interface
that enables health planners to examine different strategies for dealing with
outbreaks of contagious diseases. The final paper describes an experiment in
which some participants in a i based managerial Id had
access to an interface based on a balanced scorecard while other relied on
information in traditional report formats. Discussion afterwards will explore
common insights from these applications.

Seventh Annual Modeling Assistance Workshop

Modeling assistance is available at the conference to enable people to
receive one-on-one coaching with an experienced system dynamics
practitioner. Opportunities include two scheduled sessions, as well as the
possibility of assistance at any time during the conference. Assistance is
available for modelers at any level of modeling ability, from beginner to
advanced, with questions about a specific model, methodology, or software.
Questions may address problem identification, dynamic hypothesis
development, model formulation, model testing, or policy design and
evaluation. Modelers should bring whatever materials they need to describe
their modeling question, including pencil and paper, articles, books, or
laptop computers. Spectators are welcome to observe, and even contribute
their own ideas, during the scheduled modeling assistance sessions.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Special and Convenend Sessions continued

Andrew P. Jones
apjones@ sustainer.org
Sustainability Institute
8 Lynmar Avenue
Asheville NC 28804
USA

Scott F. Rockart
srockart@ duke.edu

Duke University

Fuqua School of Business
Box 90120

Durham NC 27708

USA

Geoff McDonnell
gmedonne@ bigpond.net.au
Adaptive Care Systems
382 Bronte Road
Bronte NSW 2024
Australia

Gary B. Hirsch

gbhirsch@ comcast.net

Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road

Wayland MA 01778

USA

David Rees
david.rees@ synergia.co.nz
Synergia Ltd

PO Box 31-503
Milford Auckland

New Zealand

Oleg V. Pavlov

opavlov@ wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd

Worcester MA 01609

USA

David Wheat

dwheat@ wheatresources.com
University of Bergen
Nedre Fjellsmug 6

5018 Bergen

Norway

Diagram Slam

All conference participants are invited to compete to create the most
entertaining, innovative, beautiful and/or outrageous stock-flow/causal-loop
diagram. The topic area will be announced on Wednesday morning with
entries due later that day. After the evening Beer Game event, five finalists
will present their results in front of the conference audience to determine the
winner.

HPSIG: Health Policy Discussion Focused on
Chronic IlIness and Business Meeting

The Health Policy Special Interest Group will have a wide-ranging
discussion about its members’ work in the area of chronic illness. Topics will
include diabetes, mental illness, cardiovascular disease (CVD)and its risk
factors, and health planning as it relates to chronic illness. Members will
discuss their experience in applying SD in these areas, new insights
developed as a result of using SD and impact that was achieved, and further
opportunities they see for SD to help improve thinking and policymaking
about chronic illness. The session will conclude with a very brief HPSIG
business meeting. All i: ISDC are d to join us!

Economics Roundtable: Teaching Economics with
SD

The Economics Chapter of the System Dynamics Society will host a
roundtable discussion on "Teaching Economics with SD." Everyone is
invited to attend. The Roundtable will highlight current initiatives that
involve i ication of SD ing and/or i thinking in
economics courses. Those of us in the Chapter are aware of some of those
initiatives, but we want to know more. We are particularly interested in (a)
the way SD methodology is being implemented as a teaching tool in
economics, and (b) assessment efforts to gauge the effectiveness of SD as a
tool for teaching economics. There will be brief “highlight” presentations by
instructors from both higher education and K-12 who are using SD to teach

ics or ics, followed by questions and di i
We hereby invite anyone interested in making a presentation to submit a
proposal (less than 200 words) via email to David Wheat

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 183

Special and Convened Sessions continued

Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl

Universidad de Talea

FACE

Avenida Lircay s/n

Talca Chile

Lees N. Stuntz
stuntzin@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
27 Central Street

Acton MA 01720

USA

(david.wk ib.no) for i ion by the selection i For
planning purposes, it would be helpful to know how many participants to
expect. Please email David Wheat (david.wheat@uib.no) if you are
considering attendance.

Peer Review Dialog Meeting
This year’s “peer review dialog meeting” will take up what participants have
articulated last year and what the Policy Council has undertaken in the
meantime. Briefly put: even though the final decision is up to the programme
committee, formally deficient papers would be rejected without revision,
formally deficient reviews would lead to suspending the reviewer for one
year, authors of accepted papers would evaluate the review’s usefulness and
reviewers would have a discussion forum in order to collaborate. One
conference later, we shall ask how the actual process related to the planned
one, on the basis of last year’s report and the PC’s response to it. We'll also
assess how it worked this time, indicate what has been achieved and what
seems to need improvement. We shall conjointly set up a set of
recommendations, too.

Exhibitor Demonstrations

Exhibitor demonstrations will be held during breaks to showcase products
and services in practice.

K-12 Open Discussion

All those interested in system dynamics in K-12 education are encouraged to
attend and join in the discussion. We will be discussing three major
strategies for increasing the use of system dynamics in K-12: Innovative
curriculum development, appropriate training for teachers and students and
linkages with other organizations or movements which could be enhanced by
the utilization of system ics, such as i i ion and
economics. Those planning to attend are urged to contact Lees Stuntz
(stuntzIn@clexchange.org) before the session so that we can make the most
of our time together.

184 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Special and Convenend Sessions continued

Lees N. Stuntz Special Convened Session: Celebration of System
stuntzln@ clexchange.org

Creative Learting Bxchanee Dynamics in K-12 Education; Honoring Jay

27 Central Street Forrester
Acton MA 01720
SA, Jay Forrester, who created the field of system dynamics, turned his attention

to K-12 education about 18 years ago. He has put his considerable and
positive energy into promoting the use of system dynamics in education for
students aged 5 through 18. He mentored the System Dynamics in Education
Project at MIT for 13 years, developing Road Maps, a self-guided study
program originally designed to help teachers learn system dynamics. He has
been active as Trustee of the Creative Learning Exchange, encouraging the
writing of curriculum through the Gordon Brown Fund and staying involved
with teachers through workshops and conferences. This session is intended
to honor Jay, his support for and his commitment to the K-12 students and
teachers.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 185

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions

Emmanuel D. Adamides
adamides@ mech.upatras.gr
University of Patras

PO Box 5064

26004 Patras

Greece

George P. Papaioannou
g-papaioannou@ dei.com.gr

Public Power Corporation of Greece
31 Evias Street

Alimos 17456

Greece

Seema Arif

drarif00@ yahoo.com

Association for Academic Quality
461-G3 Johar Town

Lahore 54600

Pakistan

Ijaz Yusuf

ijaz_y@ hotmail.com

Quality Circle Institute

Suite No 7 3rd Floor Gulshan Plaza
Opposite Karim Buksh Near Moon Market
Allama Iqbal Town Lahore

Pakistan

Jeffrey Boyer
jeff_boyer@ plugpower.com
Plug Power Inc

968 Albany Shaker Road
Latham NY 12110 USA

Thinking global, acting local: The activities of the
Hellenic Chapter of the System Dynamics Society

July 2006 was a milestone for the Hellenic Chapter, as it was announced that
the 2008 Conference of the Society would be held in Athens, Greece. The
decision of the Policy Council immediately mobilized the core members of
the chapter along two directions: First, towards the organization of a
conference to be remembered for its quality and excellence, and second
towards creating a critical mass of new members that will contribute to the
organization and operations of the conference as much as they would be
benefited from it. As a consequence, in parallel with the preparations for the
2008 conference (hotel and venue arrangements, sponsor meetings, etc.), the
society is organizing in May and June two national events in association
with other related societies (The Hellenic Systems Studies Society and the
Hellenic Operational Research Society), while an edited volume of
contributions from Greek members of the System Dynamics international
community is to be published by a leading publisher in Greece.

Pakistan Chapter Poster Presentation

Pakistan Chapter of Systems Dynamic Society consists of professionals
across diverse disciplines. i rs and business men
keen to apply systems dynamics in their relevant fields. They are twenty five
in number. Pakistan Chapter is trying to include more members and plans to
conduct educative seminars in different institutions of higher learning in
Pakistan to attract more energetic and keen learners. It has already conducted
a workshop on Beer Game last year. Pakistan Chapter also offers diploma
and certificate courses in “Systems Thinking and Strategic Planning” and
“Modeling Business Dynamics.” Three papers have been contributed for
Boston 2007 on Pakistan Chapter’s behalf. They are: “A SD Approach on
Quality Education in Classroom \ at Schools” by Ijaz Yusuf, and
Rabia Sajjad; “Aligning the Supply Chains of Educational Institutes with
Business Strategy” by Asher Ramish and “Developing Universal Model of
Educational Leadership” by Seema Arif. The Pakistan Chapter looks toward
support and coaching from international Society members to increase
knowledge and awareness about systems thinking, dynamic modeling and
strategy planning in Pakistan.

Business SIG Poster Presentation

186 25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions continued

Brian C. Dangerfield
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford

Salford Business School CORAS
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford MS 4WT

UK

Niraldo José do Nascimento
niroj@ terra.com.br

UPIS Faculdades Integradas

SGAN 914 Cond South Beach

Bloco B Apto 224 Asa Norte
70790-140 Brasilia DF

Brazil

Leonardo Moura Reis
leonardoreis@ aiec.br

AIEC

Av Higienopolis 240 131B
Sao Paulo SP 01238-000
Brazil

Richard G. Dudley
richard.dudley@ attglobal.net

PMB 239

14845 SW Murray Scholls Dr Ste 110
Beaverton OR 97007-9237

USA

Allyson Beall

abeall@ mail.wsu.edu
Washington State University
PO Box 921

Pullman WA 99163

USA

UK Chapter Poster Presentation

The UK Chapter was one of the first regional Chapters to be formed. We
have regular meetings in the UK and annually at the international conference
venue. This year we held our 9th Annual Gathering at Harrogate, North
Yorkshire. The event consists of a Thursday afternoon of talks, presentation
of UK Chapter Student prize and a business meeting. A convivial dinner
follows in the evening with further sessions on the Friday morning. We
expect an attendance in the range 50-60 and a recent survey of the entire
membership showed it to be a very worthwhile session at a pleasant venue.
In Spring 2006 we inaugurated an evening networking event in London and
over 40 people attended. The second was held in December 2006. More of
these events are planned for 2007 and beyond. Finally, we have recently
updated and re-located our website. Point your browser to www.
systemdynamics.org.uk If you are based in the UK and not already on our
membership list (membership is free) then please do join us and see what we
have to offer. If anyone would like to see a specific type of event taking
place then please make your idea known. We look forward to hearing from
you.

Brazil Chapter Poster Presentation

The main activity of the Brazilian Chapter during 2006 was The Ist
International Business Dynamics Congress, in Brasilia, from October 18th to
21st. Participation was possible either in person or over the Internet. With
English / Portuguese simultaneous translation at most of the sessions, the
congress brought together researchers, executives from the public and
private sectors, consultants and academics from the national and
international communities. Around 80 papers were presented, and the main
keynote speakers of the event were Juan Martin Garcia (La Salle, Barcelona)
and Paulo Gongalves (Miami University). The objectives of this congress
were to: ¢ facilitate the Brazilian public’s contact with the System Dynamics’
concepts and applications: * contribute to the development of a community
of system and + allow the participation of
everyone, on-site or off-site, promoting international exchange of ideas and
experiences; The videos of event presentations will be available for
streaming starting on July 15, 2007 at www.sbds.org.br. The next Congress
will be held in Sao Paulo, May 14-16, 2008.

The Environment Special Interest Group Poster
Presentation

The environment special interest group provides a forum for members with
interests in many aspects of the environment. The group includes system
dynamicists with interests in a wide variety of sub-areas from ecological
studies of specific ecosystems, to worldwide concerns about human
influences on planet Earth. Domains of interest include: ecological studies of
natural systems, management of renewable natural resource systems, water
resource systems, of mineral ions between
humans and the natural environment, specific impacts pollutants and

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 187

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions continued

Tom Lum Forest

tforest@ alum.mitedu
Prometheal Systems

2023 18th Avenue

Forest Grove OR 97116-2717
USA

Shayne Gary

sgary@ agsm.edu.au

Australian Graduate School of Mgmt
University of New South Wales
Sydney NSW 2052

Australia

Geoff McDonnell
gmcdonne@ bigpond.net.au
‘Adaptive Care Systems
382 Bronte Road
Bronte NSW 2024
Australia

Jose J. Gonzalez

jose j.gonzalez@ hia.no

Agder University

Faculty of Engineering and Science
Serviceboks 509

NO-4898 Grimstad

Norway

Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegui@ tecnun.es

Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 Donostia

Spain

188 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

products (such as GM crops) on our environment, larger impacts on the
global ecosystem (biogeochemical cycles, global warming effects etc) and
their mitigation, policy studies, and efforts aimed at ensuring human
"progress" energy etc. and I I The
poster will stimulate conversation among system dynamic society members
regarding the wide variety of subject areas that are included under the
umbrella "environment" and how these different areas complement one
another and other activities of society members. The poster will also clarify
and help define the role that the environment special interest group could
have with regard to overall society activities, such as supporting non-SIG
members who may require ideas and suggestions about environmental
subjects. Contact: Richard Dudley, Chair: Richard.dudley@attglobal.net.

Australasia Chapter Overview & Planned
Activities

The Australasian Chapter has about 56 members from across the region.
This is up from approximately 45 members in 2006. In terms of geographical
spread, we have 35 members in Australia, 9 in New Zealand, 3 in Pakistan, 2
in Singapore, 1 in Indonesia, | in Malaysia, and | in India. In March, the
chapter held a one-day workshop in Sydney that attracted 13 attendees from
all over Australia. There was a good mix of academics and practitioners in
attendance and it was terrific to hear about the interesting work being done
by chapter members on a wide range of topics. The chapter has also had
several international visitors so far in 2007. Professor Yaman Barlas, from
Bogazigi University, visited in late January and gave seminars at UNSW’s
Accelerated Learning Lab and Centre for Health Informatics. Professor Erik
Larsen visited UNSW at the end of February. Also, Professor Andy Ford
visited the University of Queensland in February. The Chapter is currently
working on an interactive content management web site. Updates about
chapter activities, expertise of chapter members, a discussion forum,
seminars, conference announcements, etc. will be posted on the web site
soon.

Security Special Interest Group

The Security SIG has members from very different areas since “security” is
a very generic term. Many members come from the information security
field. In addition, areas as different as criminology, air traffic security,
organizational accidents, safety are also represented. However, traditionally,
the SIG leadership has come from the information security area. The
inhomogeneous nature of the SIG and the “bias” of the SIG leadership have
made it difficult to establish a forum with continuous activities. Only the
subgroup related to information security (the Security Dynamics Network)
has so far shown a consistent record of group-based activities. The poster
illustrates a project originating within the information security area that has
is likely to involve aspects in the fields of safety and criminality/terrorism.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions continued

Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de

University of Berne

Interfacultary Ctr for General Ecology
Postbox 8573

3001 Berne

Switzerland

Matteo Pedercini
matteois@ hotmail.com
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Blvd Ste 650
Arlington VA 22201

USA

Stefan N. Groesser
stefan.groesser@ web.de

University of Berne

Interfacultary Ctr for General Ecology
Postbox 8573

3001 Berne

Switzerland

Thomas Beck
thomas. beckl @ bluewin.ch
Swiss Re
Zaurlindenstrasse 50
CH-8003 Zurich
Switzerland

Gary B. Hirsch

gbhirsch@ comcast.net

Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road

Wayland MA 01778

USA

Student Chapter Poster Presentation

The Student Chapter of the System Dynamics Society was established in
1999. We bring together all students who are involved in System Dynamics
research and give them the opportunity to raise key questions and to discuss
concerns related to their research in a constructive and enjoyable
atmosphere. For this purpose, the Chapter manages a website, a list server,
and a newsletter, and organizes a yearly PhD Colloquium held during the
International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. The objectives of
the Chapter are: (1) to extend and unify the knowledge of feedback systems
among students all over the world, (2) to promote the development of
System Dynamics and the interchange of knowledge and research, (3) to
intensify the communication between and form a basis for cooperation
amongst the graduate students in their researches, (4) to arouse interest
among undergraduate students towards SD, (5) to promote the
communication between the students of SD and the practitioners of the field,
(6) to form a medium to help SD students to get into contact with field
related graduate studies and job opportunities. It is also for these reasons that
the Student Chapter organizes the now traditional PhD Colloquium. Check
www.sdstudentchapter.org for more information.

Swiss Chapter Poster Presentation

The Swiss Chapter of the System Dynamics Society consists of researchers,
educators, consultants, and practitioners in the corporate and public sectors.
Approximately 120 people receive our e-mails and about twenty of them are
full members who pay the membership fee. The number of participants in
chapter meetings is relatively constant at around ten. Additional activities
involve ing consultin; Ip and i P

Chapter meetings are organized where we usually combine a presentation
about System Dynamics in action with the discussion of organizational,
chapter-related issues. In addition, the Swiss Chapter organizes several PhD
round tables each year at different locations. At these meetings, PhD
students of Switzerland who apply System Dynamics and related disciplines
in their research have the opportunity to present and discuss their projects
and obtain feedback from senior researchers and peers. With such a
structure, we try to maximize the benefits for our chapter members. Our
conclusion so far is that there are quite some people in Switzerland who deal
with System Dynamics. Everyone in this heterogeneous group is ultimately
motivated to reach his individual SD related goals. The value added by the
Chapter’s activities lies in the provision of networking, learning and
exchange opportunities. Visit: www.systemdynamics-swisschapter.ch.

Health Policy Special Interest Group Poster
Presentation

The Health Policy Special Interest Group (HPSIG) has about 150 members
representing many countries. It maintains a Wiki (www.hpsig.com) with
much useful information about SD applications in health care and relevant

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 189

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions continued

Michael S. Kennedy
mike.kennedy@ Isbu.ac.uk

London South Bank University
Department of Accounting and Finance
103 Borough Road

London SE] 0AA UK

Carol Frances
carolfrances100@ hotmail.com
Seton Hall University

405 Jubilee Hall

400 South Orange Avenue
South Orange NJ 07079 USA

Ralph L. Levine
leviner@ msu.edu

Michigan State University
CARRS Dept

East Lansing MI 48824
USA

190 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

papers that present systemic views of health care problems. The HPSIG also
hosts a Sunday afternoon session prior to the beginning of the ISDC on
topics such as health reform and why it is so difficult (at the 2005 and 2006
conferences) and SD applications to chronic illness in different countries
(coming up at the 2007 conference). This poster session will be an
opportunity to meet some of the HPSIG's members, learn more about the
group, and join if you are interested.

The current activities and plans of the SDS
Education SIG

This paper describes the current activities and plans of the SDS Education
SIG. We continues to pursue our twin interests in publicising and enhancing
both the contribution of SD to Education Management and the evolution of
the contribution of SD to the curriculum - in both cases the interest spans the
whole span of education from K-12 to Higher Education. Plans and activities
include: 1. Organising oe and other events on the utilisation of
systems based app 10 Educati 2.2
education, systems and other graduate students to consider using system
dynamics approaches for education policy dissertations. 3. Encouraging
graduate students to consider examining enhanced techniques for improving
the contribution of SD to the curriculum in their dissertations. 4. Making

& publishing articles to i members of other education

to system d to their work. 5. Conducting a

survey of all those interested in sD & education so as to form an active
network with a database of current and planned system dynamics topics /
projects and a taxonomy of publications. 6. Improving our collaboration with
other groups conducting K-12 based activities. Your ideas and contributions
to any of the above are most welcome!

Psychology Chapter Poster Presentation

The Psychology Chapter of the International System Dynamics Society was
formed about a year and a half ago. In general, the goals of the chapter are to
integrate relevant psychological concepts into System Dynamics models and
to apply System Dynamics methodology to model individual and social

psy: I theories, by i d feedback isms as underlying
causes of behavior. The Chapter currently is in its early stages of
development. There are plans to survey the System Dynamics literature to
find how others in the past have included psychological processes in their
models. In addition, a list serve will be established for its members to share
ideas about modeling psychological processes and to discuss behavioral
principles might be needed to make some System Dynamics models more
attuned to the current psychological literature. In the meeting in Boston, we
will begin the process of writing the Chapter's bylaws, which eventually
should lead to election of officers.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions continued

Michiya Morita
michiya.morita@ gakushuin.ac.jp
Gakushuin University

1-5-1 Mejiro

Toshima-ku

Tokyo 171-8588 Japan

Yutaka Takahashi
takahasi@ isc.senshu-u.ac,jp
Senshu University

2-1-1 Higashimita Tama
Kawasaki Kanagawa 214-8580
Japan

Leeza Osipenko
Losipenko@ warwickac.uk
University of Warwick
Medical School

Gibbet Hill Rd
Coventry CV47AL UK

Japan Chapter Activity Report

System Dynamics history in Japan commenced in 1960s; several textbooks
of Industrial Dynamics were published in those days. After that, many
researchers used System Dynamics in their own field individually for about
30 years. Thereafter, System Dynamics researchers gathered and founded
Japan Chapter of International System Dynamics Society in 1990. Since
then, Japan Chapter held The International System Dynamics Conference
1995 hosted by Gakushuin University in Tokyo. The chapter members
assembled their best minds and finished it successfully. In 2006, Japan
Chapter had over one hundred chapter members. As Research activities,
Japan Chapter publishes an annual journal and holds regular research
meetings and symposiums. In 2006, we held six research meetings including
one public symposium. In particular, public symposiums are the most
important events not only for the chapter but also for the public. The recent
theme of the public symposium is “Whither Japan SD Education?” The

ium had many i public people. We always
welcome System Dynamics members or users who visit Japan. Several
System Dynamics researchers have already had meetings hosted by Japan
Chapter. Contact with our Chapter Liaison is greatly appreciated.

Russian Chapter Poster Presentation

Last year was very fruitful for SDRus. We increased our membership and
improved SD Rus website. In April 2007 the second international business
conference “Simulation modeling in strategic and operational business

"was, ized by SDRus Vice-president Alexey Gorbunov.
Many of SDRus members participated. In Apatity (Kola Peninsula) national
scientific conference “Theory and practice of system dynamics” was held.
All conference materials are available on our website. SDRus was advertised
during both events and it increased our profile as well as attracted new
members. Now the SDRus website (www.sdrus.org.ru) is featuring the
forum for discussions which helps members exchange ideas, answers their
questions and inspires new projects. XJtek continues to support SDRus and
helps expand the presence of system dynamics in Russian and International
markets. Dennis Meadows visited Moscow in February of 2007 and gave a
lecture at the Mendeleev University of Chemical Technology. The lecture “It
has to be completely stopped” was dedicating to the discussion of climate
change and excessive reliance on natural resources. System dynamics
continues to actively develop in a number of centers in Russia. Interest in
academic circles is growing along with the numerous projects in the
industry.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 191

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions continued

Oleg V. Pavlov

opavlov@ wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd

Worcester MA 01609

USA

David Wheat

dwheat@ wheatresources.com
University of Bergen
Nedre Fjellsmug 6

5018 Bergen

Norway

Martin F. G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl

Universidad de Talca

FACE

Avenida Lircay s/n

Talca Chile

Isaac Dyner

idyner@ yahoo.com

Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Carrera 18 #85-90 Apto 602
Bogota

Colombia

Gloria Pérez Salazar

gloria perez@ itesm.mx

Tecnologico de Monterrey

Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
Av Eugenio Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL

Mexico

Habib Sedehi
habib.sedehi@ uniromal it
University of Rome

La Sapienza

Via Rubra 246

00188 Rome Italy

Edoardo Mollona

emollona@ cs.unibo.it

Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Department of Computer Science
Mura Anteo Zamboni 7

40127 Bologna Italy

192 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Economics Chapter Poster Presentation

Since its inception in 2003, the Economics Chapter has been promoting the
use of system dynamics to study and improve economic systems. The
chapter maintains a website and a mailing list with over 70 subscribers.
Members of the chapter have successfully organized system dynamics
threads during fe and i the ics thread
during annual meetings of the System Dynamics Society. We encourage
anyone interested in Economics to stop by the poster to learn about the
activities of the chapter and its members. We also would like to hear about
your interests and invite you to join the chapter. A special event this year is a
Roundtable discussion on using SD to teach economics, and everyone is
invited to attend.

Latin American Chapter of the System Dynamics
Society

The Chapter was founded en 2002. Its first line of activities was to start a
Latinamerican conference, from 2003 on - held in Monterrey (Mexico),
Talca (Chile), Cartagena (Colombia) and Cancun (Mexico). Since 2004, the
chapter has a quarterly on-line newsletter called sisTEMAS
(dinamicasistemas.utalca.cl/sisTEMAS/sisTemas.htm). In 2005, appeared
the “Revista de Dinamica de Sistemas” which publishes 2 numbers per year
(dinamicasistemas.utalca.cl/Revista/RDS_home.htm) and currently he 4th
issue is on-line. The chapter has a growing number of members from
Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela, Argentina, Peru, Chile and particularly
Spain, 23 of whom are formally members of the System Dynamics Society.
Currently, the Chapter is represented in the Policy Council by Gloria Pérez
from “Instituto Tecnolégico de Monterrey” (Mexico) and presided by Martin
Schaffernicht from the “Universidad de Talca” (Chile). Priorities are to
strengthen the internal structure of the chapter so as to foster collaboration
despite the geographical distance between members; since the Cancun
conference, collaborative work on an on-line book is under progress. Also,
we will strive for the “Revista” to be incorporated into the LATINDEX
database. The official web-site is dinamica-sistemas.mty.itesm.mx.

SYDIC: System Dynamics Italian Chapter Poster
Presentation

The final design and development of the System Dynamics Italian Chapter
(SYDIC) new website continue to be in progress. At Communication
Sciences faculty Rome University “La Sapienza”, the SD course has been
confirmed and more than 50 students were introduced to System Dynamics
and of delling. There has been
continues academic activities developed by Chapter members (here reported)
in the field all over the country. University of Bologna —Faculty of
Mathematical, Physical and Natural Sciences — Dynamics of Complex

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Chapter and SIG Poster Sessions continued

Stefano Armenia
armenia@ disp.uniroma2.it

Tor Vergata University Rome
Via Pescosolido 168

00158 Rome Italy

Luc Van Den Durpel
vddurpel@ listo.be

LISTO bvba

Groenstraat 35

9250 Waasmunster

Belgium

Andrea Marcello Bassi

4141@ stud.liuc.it

Millennium Institute

2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650
Arlington VA 22201

USA

Bing Wu

wbesh@ 163.com

Tongji University

LongGaolu 88 JiuTing Songjiang
Shanghai 201615 China

Liqin Zhang
zhanglq1@ 126.com

Organisations course University of Siena — Department of Social and
Business Studies — Governance and Management Control course University
of Rome “La Sapienza” — Faculty of C ication Sciences dvanced
degree in Enterprise Communication — System Theory and Dynamic
Simulation Modelling course University of Rome “La Sapienza” Master at
Faculty of Statistics Sciences — Department of Data Intelligence and
Strategic Decisions — Integrative lessons in SD University of Rome “Tor
Vergata” — Faculty of Economics — Department of Enterprise Studies
University of Rome “Tor Vergata’ Faculty of Engineering — Department of
Enterprise Engineering — Enterprise Production Processes Modelling &
Service System Modelling course and Master in Network System
Engineering — Integrative lessons in SD ENI Corporate University — Mattei
School of Management — Master in Energy and Environmental Economics
and Management - Integrative lessons in SD.

Energy SIG: Overview

The prime objective of the Energy SIG is to further the development of a
holistic view on energy policy and energy systems by use of systems
thinking and use of system dynamics tools. Areas of interest for this new

SIG are the d and ication of system ics in: « Energy
systems technology development and energy market modeling + Technology
assessment * Energy impact on i Ir + Energy

+ Energy-environmental policy design and assessment ¢ ... with direct
application to systems of direct relevance to the energy sector. The Energy
SIG develops and stimulates activities aimed at: + Information exchange; +
Stimulate further research; * Organize special sessions during SDS-
Conferences or during other events supporting the Energy SIG objectives; +
Promote cooperation and joint sessions with other energy-related
organizations during SDS-Conferences or during other events; * Stimulate
cooperation and exchange with other Special Interest Groups of the SDS; +
Contribute with study, research, and activities, to the discussion of

ing the energy role and
environmental impacts. The poster will show the objectives and activities
undertaken by the Energy SIG. More information on this Energy SIG may be
obtained via energy@sigs.systemdynamics.org or from the website

http: iS .org/sigs ‘gy.

China Chapter Poster Presentation

For information about the China Chapter please visit the website:
http://www.systemdynamics.cn.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 193

Workshops

Michael Bean
mbean@ forio.com

Forio Business Simulations
365 Brannan Street

San Francisco CA 94107
USA

Andrei Borshchey

andrei@ xjtek.com

XJ Technologies

49 Nepokorennykh Ave Office 410
St Petersburg 195220

Russia

Jim Duggan

jim.duggan@ nuigalway.ie

National University of Ireland Galway
Department of Information Technology
University Road

Galway

Ireland

Methods to Make Your Simulation Run on the

Simulations that run in web browsers have the advantages of global
accessibility, simple distribution, and the ability to monitor simulation usage.
However, simulations need to be modified in order to effectively use the
online medium. Online simulations need to engage the user, be accessible in
multiple formats, be simple to navigate, and correspond to the user's learning
objectives. Usability design is critical to create simulations that will be used
by a diverse, global audience with limited knowledge of simulation, short
attention spans, and unarticulated use objectives.During the workshop,
Michael Bean will demonstrate how to create web simulations, discuss
commonly occurring web simulation design challenges and potential
solutions, and show examples of web simulations that have been used by
thousands of users. Michael will also provide a series of guidelines for
creating simulations online. Michael will provide handout booklets, sample
simulations, and sample HTML pages that can be used to create your own
first web simulation.

Getting Started with AnyLogic Software

AnyLogic is a multi-method simulation software supporting System
Dynamics, Discrete Event and Agent Based modeling. AnyLogic modeling
language enables you to efficiently capture the complexity and heterogeneity
of business, economy and social systems. In this workshop we build a model
where interacting objects in the real world having different nature will be
modeled using a ination of different app The model will be
from Supply Chain or Healthcare domain. We will go through most of new
feature of recently release version 6. You may bring your own laptop, install
the software (CD will be available) and follow us, or just watch the process
of model development.

Modelling Agent-Based Systems Using System
Dynamics

This workshop presents an experimental simulation environment — based on
the .NET platform - that can be used to integrate population-level dynamics
with those occurring at an individual, or agent-based, level. The benefit of
this approach is that individual agent behaviour may be mapped at a detailed
level, using differential and over the entire populati

in order to determine population-level dynamics. Furthermore, individual

194 25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Workshop continued

Robert L. Eberlein
bob@ vensim.com

Ventana Systems Inc

17 Loker Street

Wayland MA 01778

USA.

Joanne C. Egner
jegner@ iseesystems.com
isee systems inc

31 Old Etna Rd Suite SN
Lebanon NH 03766 USA

Karim J. Chichakly
kchichakly@ iseesys.com
isee systems ine

31 Old Etna Rd Suite 5N
Lebanon NH 03766 USA

Paul G. Gisborne

paul@ pgaconsulting.co.uk
Whole Systems Partnership
11 Robert Street

Harrogate North Yorkshire HG1 1HP UK

Diana Fisher
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School

7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008 USA

Debra A. Lyneis

lyneisd@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
PO Box 121

215 Landgrove Road
Weston VT 05161 USA

Lees N. Stuntz

stuntzln@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
27 Central Street

Acton MA 01720 USA.

agents can interact with one another, in terms of a grid-based social network
structure. The environment is firmly srounded ¥ in the system dynamics
approach, and, unlike conventional ‘bas en

programming is not required in order to specify agent interactions and
behaviours. The workshop describes the approach, and participants will have
an opportunity to experiment with a market dynamics model, based on two
firms competing for a fixed market population.

Getting Started with Vensim®

System Dynamics is about understanding complex systems. As Jay Forrester
points out human beings are not able to understand the implications of
multiple interacting feedback loops. To support us in this endeavor,
therefore, we need software. Vensim is one of the available software
products that fully supports system dynamics and this workshop is an
introduction to using it.

Getting Started with STELLA and iThink

This workshop will be an introduction to building and communicating
system dynamics models using STELLA or iThink software. The workshop
is intended for people who are relatively new to the field or do not have
experience using STELLA or iThink. The session will be conducted as a
hands on workshop and basic i for building, anal.

and communicating simple simulation models. Participants should bring
their own computers with STELLA or iThink Version 9 installed or arrive
15 minutes early to install the software.

Teaching Your Children System Dynamics/Systems
Thinking

Workshop attendees will participate in several lessons designed to teach the
principles of system dynamics to elementary, middle and high school
students. Participants may share their experiences in teaching system
dynamics to children. The workshop will conclude with a brief discussion of
the available curriculum resources, strategies, challenges and pitfalls of

K-12 system ics. ACD ing helpful articles and
sample lessons will be made available to each participant (at no cost).

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 195

Workshop continued

Diana Fisher
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School

7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008
USA

Eduardo Pedro Fracassi
fracassi@ itba.edu.ar

Instituto Tecnologico de Buenos Aires
Av Madero 399

Buenos Aires Capital Federal
Argentina

Will Glass-Husain
wglass@ forio.com

Forio Business Simulations
365 Brannan Street

San Francisco CA 94107
USA

196 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a First
Course (new chapter on delays)

“Modeling Dynamics Systems: Lessons for a First Course” provides a set of
materials that enable educators at the secondary and college levels to teach a
one-semester or one- year course in System Dynamics modeling. These
lessons are also useful for trainers in a business environment. A new chapter
dealing with material and information delays will be discussed. Developed
for beginning modelers, the lessons contained in this book can be used for a
core curriculum or for independent study. Systems thinking software like
STELLA offers an opportunity to create visual models that actively engage
students in the study of a wide variety of problems. Creating a model allows
for “real-time” analysis of dynamic behavior and a more stimulating
environment in which to glean insight. The lessons include some of the
classic System Dynamics problems (population change, resource

inability, drug pharmacokinetics, spread of an epidemic, urban growth,
supply and demand, and more). Developed over 15 years, the lessons in this
book provide an easy-to-use set of teaching materials that are paced gently
enough for novice modelers.

The Career Simulator - Which are the key
decisions in Career Planning?

Which are the key Career Planning decisions? I created the Career Simulator
to teach last year students the basic systemic structure of career success at
ITBA - (Instituto Tecnologico de Buenos Aires), which offers 5-year
academic programs in engineering. The Career Simulator model is based on
more than 11 years coaching the careers of our graduates and in the study of
the careers of successful professionals in Argentina and USA. The model
predicts 4 key “hard” career planning decisions. Surprisingly, a great
percentage of high talented and qualified engineering professionals ignore
them leading some of them to poor career results. The advantages of taking
into account this 4 key “hard decisions” when planning your career are very
important: more career resources and career options, higher income
potential, increased negotiation power. They complement your “soft” career
decisions with logical and established criteria for taking your “hard”
decisions to enhance your career.

Getting Started With Forio Broadcast

This workshop will present a step by step approach to building a web-based
simulation based on an existing simulation model. Participants will use the
web application Forio Broadcast to upload a simulation model and construct
a simple web interface. The resulting simulation will be accessible by
anyone across the internet using only a standard internet browser.
Participants can bring a model (built with popular simulation software
packages such as Vensim, Powersim, Ithink, STELLA) or may use one of
Forio’s pre-built models as an example.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Workshop continued

Rick Kossik

rkossik@ goldsim.com

GoldSim Technology Group
22516 SE 64th Place Suite 110
Issaquah WA 98027

USA

Leonard A. Malezynski
lamalcz@ sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories
1515 Eubank SE

Albuquerque NM 87123-1350

Geoff McDonnell
gmcdonne@ bigpond.net.au
Adaptive Care Systems

382 Bronte Road

Bronte NSW 2024 Australia

Nathaniel Osgood
nosgood@ mit.edu
University of Saskatchewan

Computer Science Dpt 280.6 Thorvaldson

110 Science Place
Saskatoon SK S7N 5C9 Canada

Getting Started with GoldSim Software

This workshop will be an introduction to building probabilistic system
dynamic models using GoldSim. GoldSim differs from traditional system
dynamics software in that 1) it puts much greater emphasis on probabilistic
iques to support rep ion of uncertain and/or
stochastic systems; and 2) it relies on more specialized model objects
(beyond stocks, flows and converters) in order to make models less abstract
(and hence more transparent) and help tepresent processes and events that

cannot easily be using a tre 1 system d approach.
In general, this is because GoldSim has traditionally been used for
engineering and scientific ications where

predictions of future performance have been required (e.g., by regulators) in
order to inform and defend policy and design designs. The workshop is
intended for people who are already familiar with traditional system
dynamics tools, and will focus on how GoldSim models can be used to
complement and extend models built using traditional approaches. The
session will demonstrate basic GoldSim functionality, how GoldSim can be
used to represent uncertain and stochastic systems, and will discuss a
number of specialized objects provided by the software. Computers are not
required for this short workshop.

Advanced application design with Powersim Studio

A system dynamics application is the combination of a model and a user
interface. A key to building effective applications necessitates spending
some time on model layout and the software engineering techniques that
ultimately improve model quality and lend models to application
development. These include module coupling and cohesion, naming

deling team i ion, and dards. The ultimate success
ofan application i is measured by use. There are traditional and novel creative
ways to make useful applications using the available interface tools.
Extending a model and interface beyond the usual system dynamics
constructs may lead to more effective applications.

Multiscale Modeling in Anylogic6 with Health
Examples

There is a long history of using disaggregated micro models for assisting
with structure and of more highly SD models. We
present a new i which SD,
Agent Based and Discrete Event simulation using the java Eclipse
framework, which allows powerful software extensions, including GIS
datasets and opti ion, and ing and ing animations across
multiple Mac and PC platforms. This interactive workshop will use mostly

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 197

Workshop continued

Andrei Borshchev

andrei@ xjtek.com

XJ Technologies

49 Nepokorennykh Ave Office 410
St Petersburg 195220 Russia

Ozge Karanfil

oage karanfil@ mail.mcgill.ca

McGill University

Centre for Nonlinear Dynamics
3655 Promenade Sir William Osler
Montreal Quebec H3G 1Y Canada

Giiven Demirel
guven.demirel@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University

Industrial Engineering Dept SESDYN Lab

34342 Bebek Istanbul Turkey

James Melhuish
jamesmelhuis@ gmail.com

BAE Systems

82 Harvard Street
Newtonville MA 02460-2232
USA

Moh dT. Mojtahed

d

mohammad@ attunegroup.com
Attune Group Inc

16 Regina Court Suite 1
Delmar NY 12054

USA

198 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

health examples to illustrate the features, including epidemics, diffusion of
innovation, “across the skin” modeling, population dynamics, and chronic
illness idity and di: ity, dynamic decisi king and adaptive
supply chains.

Mark Heffernan

mheffernan@ evanspeck.com

Evans & Peck Pty Ltd

20/390 Eastern Valley Way

East Roseville NSW 2069 Australia

Rosemarie Sadsad

rsadsad@ student.unsw.edu.au
University of New South Wales
Centre for Health Informatics
Coogee Campus

Sydney NSW 2052 Australia

David A. Lyell

david.lyell@ futureechoes.com.au
University of New South Wales
14/108 High Street

Mascot NSW 2020 Australia

Dynamic Experiments for Learning Basic Modeling

D ing the benefits of si to new is not
an easy task. Models that solve real-world dynamic problems may take
weeks, months, or even years to develop. Audiences new to System
Dynamics may have a hard time relating model behavior to the real-world
problem because of their unfamiliarity with the problem being modeled, or
simply because of the separation between their world experience and its
representation in the computer. This workshop teaches the basics of
modeling using dynamic experiments which are brief, exciting, memorable,
and involve workshop participants. The participants act as observers who
collect behavioral data “real-time” from the experiment. The participants
discuss their observations of the experiment and their understanding of the
data. A dynamic hypothesis is drawn out by the workshop moderator as a
Causal Loop Diagram based on the outcome of the discussion. A model
(built prior) is si: to the observed d ics. From the
model behavior, the participants suggest a manageable change to the
experiment which is then rerun (using data collection) and the results are
compared to the simulation model runs.

Why Do Different Methods in Model Analysis
Produce Similar Results?

This workshop will be useful for people with an interest in understanding the
behavior of dynamic systems based on their feedback structure. Recent
studies done to contrast the outcome of alternative techniques for identifying
loop dominance conclude that a significant overlap may exist in the outcome
of various approaches to model analysis. The purpose of the workshop is to
explore the similarities and differences among various methods including,
but not limited to, pathway partici metrics and ei anal:
Methods of analysis will be explored in three dimensions: 1) metrics used to

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Workshop continued

Kim D. Warren

kwarren@ london.edu

London Business School
Strategy Dynamics Solutions Ltd
131-151 Gt Titchfield Street
London W1W SBB UK

Kim D. Warren

kwarren@ london.edu

London Business School
Strategy Dynamics Solutions Ltd
131-151 Gt Titchfield Street
London W1W SBB UK

characterize structure and behavior, 2) selection of dominant structure and,
3) interpretation of results. The workshop will provide the opportunity for
the participants to share their experience in understanding the connection
between dynamic behavior and feedback structure. This workshop will
compare the results of analyzing several models by pathway participation
metrics (implemented in Digest) with those of eigenvalue analysis and
conclude s that the pathway participation metrics and eigenvalue elasticities
may converge in the long run behavior of linear systems.

Strategy Dynamics: Introduction and New
Developments

This workshop will demonstrate the use of system dynamics for tackling
strategy and other management topics. It will be highly interactive, and seek
to demonstrate the approach by working on live management issues from the
audience. Although a repeat of successful workshops from previous years, it
will add some important extensions, including the live use of software to
capture strategy issues and important to k
from other management topics.

Getting Started with MyStrategy Software

This workshop will be an introduction to building system dynamics models
using 'MyStrategy'. The workshop is intended for people who are relatively
new to the field or do not have experience using MyStrategy. The session
will be conducted as a hands-on workshop and will demonstrate basic
techniques for mapping the causal structure of business and other challenges,
and developing simple simulation models. Participants should bring their
own computers with the specific software loaded on them or show up one
half hour early to load the software. People without computers are welcome
to watch, and they will be paired or in small groups to work together with
those who do have computers.

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 199

Author Index

Abad, Jeanette C...
Abrishamchi, Ahma
Abyari Ali Abad, Shahram
Ackbarow, Theodor....

Fran

damid
Afshar, Abbas.

D.

Beyeler, Walt
Bianchi, Carmine....
Bier, Asmeret

Bili¢é, Mirko
Bivona, Enzo ...
Black, Laura J.

B d, Robert J. 66

Akbarpour,
Akcam, Bahadir

Boggs, Peter B.
Bonsen, Joost Paul
Borman, Mark

Be hev, Andrei

Akiyama, Masanori

Bosshardt, Mathias 67, 87

Akkermans, Henk A.
Alessi, Stephen .
Altami Mor
Ambroz, Kristjan
An, Lianjun
Andersen, David F...
Andersen, Deborah Lines
Anderson, Edward G.
Arango, Santiago .
Araujo, Ewandro
Arif, Seema
Armenia, Stefano
Arndt, Holger.
Arquitt, Steven P.
Askar, Moh: d
Atilgan, Ali Rana
Atilgan, Canan
Atun, Rifat A. ...
Azar, Ahmad Taher .....

Bakken, Bent Erik.
Bandlow, Alisa ..
Barlas, Yaman
Barlow, Jame:

Barquin, Julian
Bassi Brown, Susan ..
Bassi, Andrea Marcell
Battini, Dari
Bauen, Ausilio
Bayer, Steffen
Beall, Allyson
Bean, Michael

Boyer, Jeffrey ..
Brady, Malcolm

Bragen, Mark J. ...
Braun, Bill
Brierley, Gary
Brinksma, Jim
Bruppacher, Suzanne
Buendia, Fe
Bueno, Newton Paulo.
Bunn, Derek W....
Burns, James R.
Butler, John E.

Cc

Cabrera, Karla Verénica
Caicedo, Santiago...
Camara, Karounga
Campbell, Deborah
Campos-Nanez, Enrique
Cappelli, Dawn M...
Carroll, John Stephen ....
Cassivi, Luc
Cavaleri, Steven A......
Cavana, Robert Y. ...
Centeno, Efraim
Ceresia, Francesco
Chaim, Ricardo Mato:
Chang, Myong-Hun
Chen, Chun-Sh
Chichakly, Karim J.....
Chiong Meza, Catherine
Chirico, Francesco
Chlebus, Edward.

200 25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

Author Index continued

Choi, Nam Hee....
‘homiakow, Daniel
Choucri, Nazli
Chu, Jianxun
Clark, Thomas D. .....
Cloutier, Martin...
Cody, John
Coker, Richard
Colacchio, Giorgio
Colombo, Gianluca
Comaschi, Carlo
Conrad, Stephen H...
Cooke, David L
Corbet, Thomas F.....
Cox, Andrew.
Cresswell, Anthony M.....
Cronrath, Eva-Maria
Cruz Barrientos, Margarita Maria...
i Scott

Curry, Gil

Da Silva, Christian Lui:
Dangerfield, Brian C.
Dattée, Brice A.
Dauelsberg, Lori
Davidsen, Pal I...
Davidson, Frank P.
Deegan, Michael A.
del Moral Simanek, Raul
Delhoum, Salima .
Demirel, Giiven
Depestele, Jochen
Derwisch,
Desai, Soni
Dhawan, Rajat ae
Di Giulio, Vincenzo. HE
Diaz, Fabio André:
Dijkema, G.P.J.
do i Niraldo José 187
Du, Yong
Dudley, Richard G...
Duggan, Jim
Dulac, Nicolas
Duran Encalada, Jorge A.
Dutt, Varun
Dwyer, Michael F.
Dyner, Isaac..

Eberlein, Robert L. ..

Ellison, James 0
El-Minisy, Moh: d 0
Emery, Cécile ..

Ennis, Marty
Eskici, Burak
Essien, Joyce.
Ewers, Mary ....

Faccio, Maurizio
Fair, Jeanne.
Farsi, Arash.
Fernandez Soto, Pedro....
Fernandez-Lechon, Ramon
Fiddaman, Thomas ..
Figueii Paulo S.
Fincher, Step J.
Fisher, Diana...
FitzPatrick, David.
Fleming, Andrew ..
Fletcher, Michael.
Flom, Ingrid

Forest, Tom Lum.
Foroughi, Hami
Forrester, Jay W.
Forrester, Matthew.
Foster,
Fracassi, Eduardo Pedro ...
Frances, Carol
Franck, Travi:
Franco, Carlos Jaime
Franco, Douglas.
Franx, Arie.
Friedman, Sheldon
Fryling, Margaret

G
Gage, Nathan...
Garagic, Denis 5
Garcia, Rosanna 6

Gary, Shayne ...
Garzia, Carmine.
Gass Fritz

Gaudiano, Paolo
Gellynck, Xavier..
Georgantzas, Nicholas C.
Ghaffarzadegan, Navi
Gharakhani, Aref.....
Ghasemi, Mahdi

Eden, Colin Gholi +h Khiavi, Arash Agha
Egner, Joanne C... Gillespie, David F...
Elia, Elie Gillespie, Patrick John

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 201

Author Index continued

Gino, Francesca
Gisborne, Paul G. ....
Glass-Husain, Will...
Glenn, Jame:

Jones, Albert 93
Jones, Andrew P...... ... 100, 151, 183
Jones, Charles A.
Jones, Mary C.. |

Wouter 141

Godoy, Manuel Alejandro 133

G ith, Daniel 72, 89 Joseph, Hannah 123

Goliike, Ulrich Juerging, Jan 101
s, Paulo 9

Gonzalez, Cleotilde . 79 K

Gonzalez, Jose J...

Groesser, Stefan N.
GréBler, Andreas .

Hadjipavlou, Savas..

Kaggwa, Martin...
Kakollu, R. Divakar Roy
Kalnins, Juris Roberts..
K tian Erik 102
Kang, Kyungmin .
Kapmeier, Florian
Karanfil, Ozge
K E

Hadjis, Andreas
Hannon, Bruci
Haslett, Tim
Haveland, Tone.
Heene, Aime
Heffernan, Mark
Heijkoop, Gerrit
Helal, Magdy
Hirsch, Gary B.
Ho, Yufeng
Homer, Jack B. ..
Hopper, Megan...

Ni

Hovmand, Peter S.....
Howick, Susan
Hsueh, Joe Chiaojen
Hu, Qian
Huang, Lizhen ..
Huang, Yu-Ying

Incioglu, Firat
Isaai, Mot Taghi
Isfanahi, Hamed Tarkesh...
Ivins, W.K.

Jae, Me
Jalali Barsari, Arash...
i, Balaji

Jay, Jason
Jia, Jianguo
Jia, Renan
Jia, Xiaojing.

Joglekar, Nitin R
John, Klaus
Johnson, Suzette

202 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Kearney, James Rhys...
Kelic, Andjelka

Kennedy, Michael S.
Kidde, Saul
Kim, Hyunjung
Kim, Hyun-Shil
Kim, Sang-Joon
Kljajic Borstnar, Mirjana
Kljajié, Miroljul
Knaflic, Andrej
K6berle-Gaiser, Martina
Koblov, Andrey I.
Kofjac, Davorin
Koh, Kyung-ho
Kopainsky, Birgit.
Kossik, Rick
Kovalenko, Dmitry
Krahe, Chri:

Krakenes, Arne
Kulhavy, Rudol
Kulp, Susan L.
Kunc, Martin H.
Kwakkel, Jan H.
Kyriakakis,

L

Laidler-Kylander, Nathalie Katrina
Lane, David C......

Lawless, Bill
Lebcir, Reda M.
LeClaire, Rene.
Lee, Man-Hyung
Lee, Robert C.
Lee, Tsuey-Ping.

Lee, Yen-Chiang Thomas
Lee, Young M.
Leveson, Nancy G.......

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Author Index continued

Levine, Ralph L...

123
58, 87, 124

Mora Luna, Ana Maria
Me John D. W.

Li, Anson Kin Tat ll
Li, Shyh-Jane
Liu, Chao-Yueh...
Liu, Min

Liz, Manuel
Lopez, Luis
Lopez-Peiia, Alvaro...
Lounsbury, David W. ......
Lu, Yu
Luna-Reyes, Luis F.

Lusk Brooke, Kathleen
Lyell, David A..

Lyneis, Debra A. A
Lyneis, James M. 114, 158, 176, 181
Lyneis, John 114

Maani, Kambiz E.
MacDonald, Roderick H.
Madnick, Stuart

Maier, Frank H. 21
Mak, Wai-ming. 69
Makary, Samir...

N i, Leonard A. 115, 131, 197
Martin Garcia, Juan ..
Martinez Medina, Maria Angélica
Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio
Marzouk, Ahmed Farghaly
Mas khi, Ali Naghi 116
Matthews, Elissa 103
McCutchan, Micah
McDonnell, Geoff.
McGarraghy, Sean

McGregor, Marion 117
McIntosh, Stephen B. 157
McKelvie, Douglas..

Meadows, Dennis 118, “176. 191
Medina-Borja, Alexandra

Met: d, Arif.

Melhuish, James

Melville, Nigel
Miller, David S.
Milling, Peter M.
Milstein, Bobby
Minami, Nathan A.
Minnich, Dennis A.
Mii Vissalia Gpe.
Moen, Steinar
Moh d, Abdalla S.A.

Mojtahedzadeh, Mohammad T.
Mollona, Edoardo
Monk, David...

Giovan Battista
Moore, Andrew P. ....

Morita, Michiya....
Morris, Don R
Morrison, J. Bradley...
Moshref, Masoud
Moxnes, Erling
Munitic, Ante M.

N
Nazzari, Sara.
Nelson, Mark R. ..

Nikoofar, Ehsan 127
Noé, Carlo. 141
oO
O'Connor, Marcu: q7
Olaya, Camilo. 127, 150

Oliva, Rogelio.
OReilly, Gerard
O'Rourke, Denis ..
Osgood, Nathaniel
Osipenko, Leeza

Otto, Peter A
Owens, Brandon D. ....
Ozbas, Birnur.
Ozgiin, Onur
Ozolins, Gints......

Packer, David W.
Pala, Ozge.
Paleshi, Arsalan
Papachristos, George
EADAECOrE| OM, aeons Nathaniel...
George P.
Park, Jung-Yeon
Parker, Geoffrey ..
Parvizian, Jamshid
Pasca, Codrin
P. ini, Donatella
Passell, Howard...
Pasupathy, Kalyan S
Paucar-Caceres, Alberto
Pavlov, Oleg V. ....
Pearson, David
Pedercini, Matteo..
Peplinski, Will.
Pérez Salazar, Glori:
Pero, Margherita.
Persona, Al
Phaff, Willem Geert.....
Phelan, Michael...

119, 132

132, 183, isa

132, 133, 167, 9

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 203

Author Index continued

Phillips, Larry
Pierson, Kawika
Pieters, Angele.
Plice, Robert K.
Podbregar, Iztok
Polet, Han:

Pomonis, Nikolaos. 5
Pouris, 101
Pruyt, Erik 136, 137
Pugh, Jack 177

Qu, Weishuang....
Quigley, Michael

Saleh, Mol
Salge, Markus..
Sallach, David L.
Sanchez, Juan J
Sanogo, Siaka ..
Sardiwal, Sangeeta 146
Sarriegi, Jose Mari
Sato, Jeremy B.
Sawicka, Agata...
Saysel, Ali Kerem
Schaffernicht, Martin F. G....
Scheel, Carlos...
Scheffran, Jurgen.
Schmalz, Martin C
cholz-Reiter, Bernd

d Mostafa 145

- 148, 184, 192
133, 134

Qureshi, Muhammad Azeem....

R

Rabelo, Luis
Radianti, Jaziar .....
Radzicki, Michael J.
Rafferty, Martin... “s
Hazhir 176

Rajan, T. V.
Raman, K.
Randers, Jorgen ...
Raphael, Mike.
Rees, David.
Reimann, Peter ....
Reis, Leonardo Moura...
Resk, Maha

Rhodes, Donna H.

Rich, Eliot
Ri George P.
Robadue, Donald
Roberts, Edward
Rockart, Scott F.
Rogers, Paul
Rohleder, Thomas R....
Roos, Lars-Uno
Rosser, J. Barkley ....
Rossi, Tommaso.
Roth, George.
Rouwette, Etiénne A. J. A. ...
Rudolph, Jenny W. ..

Rwashana S , Agnes 142
Rydzak, Felicjan.. i

henkov, Alexander V. 143

Ss

Sadsad, Rosemari 143, 198
Saeed, Khalid 144
Salama, Ahmed. 144
Salavitabar, A i 144

204 50" Anniversary Celebration of System Dynamics

Schwarz, Doreen
Sedehi, Habib
Senge, Peter M
pulveda, Jose
Fabio
Shiryaev, Vladimir I. ..
Sianesi, Andrea
Siegel, Michael...
Simon, Martin
Simonin, Bernard
Sivertson, Stuart
Skraba, Andrej ..
Slinger, Jill H.
Sli8kovic, Merica..
Sormani, Eleonora
Soto, Leticia
Soto-Torres, M. Dolor
Spencer, Roberta L.
Sposito, Al di
Stansen, Bonnie Kopolow
Stave, Krystyna A...
Steel, Katherine ....
Stemate, Luminita
Stephens, Craig A...
Sterman, John

Steyn, Jasper 101
jerde, Bjorn 93
Stouten, Hendrik 154
Ik Jiirgen 154

Strong, David
Struben, Jeroen
Stuntz, Lees N.
Sufié, Albert
Supple, Derek R.
Sveen, Finn Olav.
Sweeney, Linda Booth.

July 29 - August 2, 2007, Boston, USA

Author Index continued

Tajrishi, Amir T. 8
Takahashi, Yutaka...
Tan, Burcu
Tawileh, Ana:
Taylor, Ivan
Taylor, Timothy R.B.
Tebaldi, Claudio ..
Tempel, Michael
Thi i Prakash R. 115
Thompson, Kate J...
Tian, Fan,

avid...

ic, Marko
Trailer, Jeff W. .
Triantis, Kostas.

Todd, D:
T

Wakeland, Wayne...
Wang, Cuixia
Wang, Qifan ....
Wang, Wei Yang ..

164

Wang, Yun. 148
Warren, Kim D.... .... 164, 165, 199
Weber, Lars 165
Weil, Henry Birdseye...

Weiss, Alan.

Weitert, Christian.
Whalley, Jason
Wheat, David...
White, Chri:
Whitmore, Andrew
Wilks, Jason M. ...
Williams, Ddembe W.
Williams, Travis ...

104, 142

Trifonov, Iavor Winz, Ine:
Trzeciak, Randall F. Wokaun, Alexander...
Tsai, An-ho i Eric F.
Tseng, Ya-tsai Wood, Robert E.
Turkgulu, Burak Work, Brent
Wu, Bing.
U
Ulli-Beer, Silvia Astrid... Y
Yaghootkar, Kazem 169
Vv ¥ hi, Kaoru 169

Vaishnav, Chintan ...
Vakili, Keyvan..
Van Craeynest, Kri
van Daalen, Cornelia
Van Den Durpel, Luc.
van Hooff, Paul
van Oppen, Willem
van Zijderveld, Erik.
Vanderperren, Els
Vaziri, Hoda
Vazquez, Margarita .
Vennix, Jac A. M.
Bart

Virtala, Pertti
Voyer, John J
Vriens, Dirk

Wahba, Khaled .....

Yang, Huiming....
Yasarcan, Hakan

Ye, ine Ming-Shih
Ying, Wenjun ..

Young, Showing H......
Yu, Jaekook
Yiicel, Goneng
Yusuf, Ijaz

Zahn, Erich K. O.
Zelinski, Ed.
Zhang, Ligin
Zhang, Qi
Zimmermann, Nicole.
Zock, Alexander ..

25" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 205