How to (not) succeed in the German energy transition: Some insights
from modeling electrical storage
technologies
Germany was long mentioned a prime example of the energy transition! because of the nuclear
phase-out and a rapid diffusion of renewables (Michaelowa 2003). But lately the growth of renewables
declined because of negative effects of the transition including (a) negative prices, (b) high prices for
household consumers, (c) needed but slow grid expansion, (d) growth in natural gas and lignite power
plants and (e) less subsidies for renewables.
Most of these negative effects are attributed to the volatile electricity generation by wind and solar
which account for more than 60% of all renewables in Germany (BMWi 2018). The share of renewables
in the total electricity generation amounts to over 30% (Burger 2018a). In order to manage these nega-
tive effects, several solutions are discussed. The first option is a more flexible generation capacity which
is also promoted by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi 2018). It focusses on
balancing oscillations in the generation by flexible conventional generation capacities and therefore
guarantee a stable electricity generation. Flexible generation capacities are mainly natural gas fired
power plants (Nasakkala & Fleten 2005) and lignite power plants? (Bugge et al. 2006).
The second option is demand site management (Strbac 2008) which focusses on the consump-
tion of electricity. Research shows that demand side management raises concerns about privacy pro-
tection (Laupichler et al. 2011) and the diffusion of technologies for demand side management may be
very slow (Wissner and Growitsch 2010). A third option in energy storage. Energy storage may focus
on each stage of the value chain (Chen etal. 2009). A fourth option is a smart grid that may be described
as a combination of the aforementioned options (Blumsack and Fernandez 2012).
This paper focuses on energy storage, especially electrical storage, i.e. the use of electricity to
provide electricity at a later point in time. The aim of the paper is to (1) analyze electrical storage tech-
nologies with system dynamics and (2) assess the capabilities of energy storage technologies in the
Germany electricity market.
Our analysis shows that the volatile electricity generation provides an incentive for electrical stor-
age but also to more generation by conventional power plants. Further, electrical storage capacity —
when charged — can be seen as electricity generators and therefore compete with other generation
capacities. Concerning the assessment of the capabilities of electrical storage technologies, we show a
possibility to incorporate them in system dynamics models. However, we show also the arising issue of
competing time horizons: building storage capacities range over several years while the capabilities of
the different technologies come into operation due to volatile generation that will be on basis of minutes.
Sterner and Bauer (2017) define energy storage as an energy technology for storing energy in
form of internal, potential or kinetic energy. It covers three processes that include charging, storing and
1 Michaelowa (2003) attributes Germany’s leading role in the energy transition to a chaos of dif-
ferent influences of lobbyists and policies but nevertheless states that Germany somehow achieved
significant level of CO2 reductions and a growth in renewables.
2 See EON power plant Irsching Block 4 and 5
3 See EnBW power plant RDK 8
Page 1 of5
discharge in one cycle. Energy storage can be generally divided into primary and secondary energy
storage. Summarizing all operational characteristics of different technologies, we created a generic
structure that include all criteria:
Average Admission Time Average Construction Average Liktine of
F Storage Capacity Tine of Storage Cxpacty Storge Capacity
\
yo \
Came
Comping |_ooe
Pere
Caguy
sa)
¢ Attia
| ‘under
Oe) REE [comment | comes | =
‘Capacty Cons
‘Storage Capacity
Average
Discharge Time
Maxinum Energy
‘Capacity
” Sel Dacharping
and Deebargmg <C>)
,
“Usage of Storage
Decharwing
{
Eciney — Ovesupph Coveae
ry
Cyek Blciney const
Resid! Load —~p sisrge
Vohile Fkewiey
Genera
a Fletbty Demand
Model 2: Operation of Electrical Storage with technical characteristics
This Model can then be integrated in the context of the electricity market structure:
Renewable Sources
40)
Incentive for Storage
Investments
Price Effect of
Generated Electricity,
Inst Ge
Capacity Conventional R2 ta
‘Sources
Demand Gon
Incentive For Generation
Capacity Conventional
Sources
+
Figure 1 - Causal Loop Diagram
Page 2 of 5
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