Table of Contents
TECHNOLOGY I MPROVEMENT POLICY:
THE CASE OF TURKEY
Contact Author Name _ : Serdar M. DURGUN
Title : Industrial Engineer, M.S.
Organization : ROKETSAN Missile I ndustry I nc.
Complete Postal Address : OYAK Sitesi 14. Giris D: 8
Cankaya ANKARA, 06610/ TURKEY
Phone
Mobile : (90) 532 455 5298
Work : (90) 312 467 6752 / 467 7041
Home : (90) 312 439 5754
Fax : (90) 312 467 7216
E-mail Address : msdurgun@metu.edu.tr
msdurgun@yahoo.com
Designated Presenter : Serdar M. DURGUN
The 21° International System Dynamics
Conference
New York City 2003
New York, USA
July 20 - July 24, 2002
ABSTRACT
A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH FOR
TECHNOLOGY IMPROVEMENT POLICY ANALYSIS:
THE CASE OF TURKEY
Durgun, M. Serdar
M.S., Department of Science & Technology Policy Studies
Supervisor: Associate Professor Dr. Erol Sayyn
Technology has been one of the most important factors of the economic
and social growth and globally scaled competitiveness, although not respected as
a separate factor by traditional economists until recently. It is now widely accepted
that technology improvement plays a very major role on national growth.
Technology has a number of interactive and conflicting variables and parameters,
which are not allowing an analysis with quantitative tools only. Complex dynamic
analysis seems to be a proper tool to handle this sophistication. A system
dynamics model constructed for policy analysis in Turkey with respect to
technology improvement and comparison of various technology improvement
policies. Under the scope of this paper; the elements effecting technology
improvement are identified and analyzed by qualitative/quantitative methods, the
key relations among these elements are identified, the influence model and the
system model are drawn and some scenario analysis are performed for the
comparison of possible technology improvement policies.
Keywords: System Dynamics, Economic Growth, Technological Capability,
Technology Improvement, Technology Policies.
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
As technology is the main source of national growth, all countries
should have technology improvement policies to support their national growth
policies. In fact, compared to other policies, technology improvement policies
may be the toughest one as it has many interactions with many variables.
Technology is the most vital parameter of culture and industrial
progress. Thus it requires sensitive management, good strategic planning
and policy identification. As technology improvement has high and wide
interactions with all social, economic and technical terms, dynamic analysis
arises as a necessity. Dynamic analysis is a sophisticated mathematical
concept
System Dynamics is a rigorous method for qualitative description,
exploration and analysis of complex sysiems in terms of their processes,
information, organizational boundaries and strategies; which facilitates
quantitative simulation modeling and analysis for the design of system
structure and control (E. F. Wolstenholme, 1990).
Since publication of J. W. Forrester’s classical books ‘Principal of
Systems” in 1958, and “Industrial Dynamics” in 1961, the application field of
system dynamics has grown in more than thirty countries around the world.
Computer simulation models developed and used for solving the complex
equations on various issues from the micro concerns of biology to the macro
concems of national and global economics.
The name “Industrial Dynamics” soon changed to the more general
term “System Dynamics”. The problems dealt by System Dynamics have at
least two features in common: they are dynamic and have feedback systems.
Since the last decades the methods of System Dynamics have been
applied to wider range of problems from managing the R&D projects to
analyzing the government policy alternatives.
Technology is a dynamic system and changes over time so that
System Dynamics appears to be a potential tool to determine the technology
improvement policies.
System Dynamics is a proper and valid tool for policy analysis,
therefore in this paper System Dynamics will be used to model the important
dynamics of technological impacts on social and economic development in
Turkey and to evaluate different technology policy alternatives. Even though
system dynamics method is widely used for policy identification/analysis, it is
very hard to find system dynamics studies for technology improvement policy
making in Turkey.
This paper is aiming to model the important dynamics of the
technological impact on social and economic development in Turkey and to
evaluate different technology policy alternatives.
CHAPTER 2
TECHNOLOGY & TECHNOLOGY IMPROVEMENT POLICY
Technology should not refer only to high-tech or science, engineering
and mathematics. Technology covers more than machines, processes and
inventions. Technology has many descriptions; some are very simple and
others are very complex.
Here are some descriptions of technology (Gerard H. Gaynor, 1996);
* Technology is the means for accomplishing a taskit includes whatever is
needed to convert resources into products or services.
* Technology includes the knowledge and resources that are required to
achieve an objective
* Technology is the body of scientific and engineering knowledge, which
can be applied in the design of products and/or processes or in the
search for new knowledge.
Technology and science have turned to be direct productive powers
and this is the distinguishing characteristic of the 20° century. Capability in
production means capability in science and technology and vice versa.
Therefore science and technology has gained strategic importance in
economic development and social welfare. In addition to that fact, “science
policies” of countries have become “science and technology policies” and
these policies have been started to be knitted with economic and social
concepts.
Managing technology can be described as the process of integrating
the business unit resources and infrastructure in the fulfillment of its defined
purposes, objectives, strategies and operations.
To manage technology and improve technology, the system related
with the technology should be well defined, the changes by time and the
feedback gathered should be well analyzed. The policies should cover the
purposes, objectives, strategies and processes of technology improvement
studies. All these points make the system complex and unmanageable with
the classical approaches. System Dynamics can be used both for defining
policies that are tested by simulations and for better decision making support.
Technology has a number of interactive and conflicting variables and
parameters. In order to have a reliable and valid model, all these variables
and parameters should be identified and related with each other in an
appropriate form.
Technology has a cycle to be called as Technology Flow Process’.
The steps of Technology Cycle are; Technology Awareness, Technology
Acquisition, Technology Adaptation, Technology Advancement and
Technology Abandonment. (Gerard H. Gaynor, 1996)
The diagram of the Technology Cycle is given in Figure 2.1.
THE TECHNOLOGY CYCLE:
TECHNOLOGY
ABANDONMENT
obsolescencing
Demolition
TECHNOLOGY
ADVANCEMENT
Figure 2.1:
TECHNOLOGY
AWARENESS
factorsaffecting the
Technology User
Promotion
The Diagram of the Technology Cycle
TECHNOLOGY
ACQUISITION
|
| | byself generation
|| orwanster
TECHNOLOGY
ADAPTATION
minor modifications
of acquired
technology for
specific needs
uoge]] su]
All the interactive and conflicting variables and parameters should
follow this cycle to achieve a remarkable technology improvement On the
long run, technology affects all the factors of life. Therefore technology is
very important and should be managed in a well-defined manner at all scale
from firm level up-to nation level.
Goverment intervention to support innovation requires justification.
There are two primary sources of data on industrial R&D such that
goverment financing appropriations by socio-economic objectives and
expenditures coming from surveys of enterprises complied by governments.
Most of the government appropriations are for defense thus essentially for
industrial development The share of the govemment appropriations for
industrial development is at most 20%. However the share of the
government appropriations for industrial innovation is about 40%. (OECD,
1995)
A large number of national programmes have been on the promotion
of strategic, generic, new or critical technologies whose success is seen as
eventually having widespread effects on industrial competitiveness. Most
govemment R&D programmes are particularly about promoting innovation
and industrial competitiveness.
Government R&D budget is mainly allocated for defense objectives in
the OECD countries (38.3% _ 1993). (OECD, 1995)
Technology policies are;
¢ mission-oriented (USA, France, UK)
* diffusion-oriented (Germany, Sweden, Switzerland) (public goods)
J apan shows characteristics of both types of policy.
6
In general, National Technology Programme objectives include the following;
* support to R&D in general,
* support for specific technologies, and in particular “generic” or “enabling”
technologies,
* support for technologies seen to be important for non-commercial, public
reasons, such as defense, social infrastructure, public health, etc,
* commercialization of R&D which government has supported for other
reasons, mainly defense, energy, space and public health; and,
¢ wider diffusion of governmentsupported R&D, especially to/through
SMEs and better use of national laboratories.
The choice of new technology can influence economic development of
a nation and thereby the pace of nation building. Once new technologies are
introduced, they will be diffused sooner or later to other companies. The
speed and extent of this diffusion have critical affect on the efficiency of the
national economy.
A joint venture is often important, not only to introduce new
technologies but also to diffuse them. The government policies promote joint
ventures between small and medium size enterprises.
The government permits for the adaptation of new technology should
be given promptly in order not to delay the diffusion of the new technology.
The role of government in checking the process of technology transfer is very
important.
Oligopoly-dominated manufacturing produces endogenously a good
part of its “normal” technological advances and apart from major crises,
seems to coordinate rather well its price/quantity adjustments.
Technology utilizes science so that new industrial activities and
improvement of goods and services may come true. There is close
relationship between science and technology and they are connected with
the feedback loops. Basic research is performed for the new scientific
findings; these new findings are the inputs of the applied research, which is
performed for the new technologies that initiate environmental development
and prototyping. Prototype is the input of marketable new innovation that will
be diffused at various markets. Market and technology needs will be the
sources of the new basic researches.
Countries are trying to determine their own technology advancement/
improvement policies in order to generate technology oriented regional
development.
There are heavy global strategic alliances especially in information,
microelectronics, software development and telecom sectors, which are
considered having high technology level.
Techno-science Park promotes new technology based firms,
invention/ innovation studies & employment of qualified manpower while it is
one of the main actors of national technology improvement policy.
Policies of technology management for the technology improvement
should resemble the real system. As the system is dynamic and changes
over time, System Dynamics appears as a major tool to determine the
technology improvement policies.
CHAPTER 3
TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES & LEVELS
Technological Capability (TC) can be defined generally as the capacity
to select, assimilate, adapt and improve existing or imported technologies
and create the new technology.
The characteristics of technological capabilities required to produce
and/or adopt innovations efficiently also depend on the knowledge base
specific to each technology. The process of technological development is
strictly associated with inter and intra national diffusion of superior
techniques.
The rate of economic growth of a country is positively influenced by
the rate of the growth in the technological level of a country. If there is a
positive relationship between the level of the technological level and
economic growth of a country then technology developed in the ‘Less
Developed Countries” (LDCs) itself should be treated differently from that
developed in foreign countries; technologies have different characteristics
that affect economic growth differently. The inflow of foreign technology to
the industry sector of LDCs contributes substantially to the growth of the
sector. The impact of the foreign technology is positive & substantially larger
than the impact of the domestic technology on the industry sector of LDCs.
The acquisition and development of TC is a prerequisite for the
absorption of imported technologies, the creation of more appropriate
technologies, diffusion of knowledge within the economy and the efficient use
of imported technologies.
National TC refers to the ability of a county to use knowledge
effectively to select, assimilate, adapt, improve, diffuse and create technology
and it is revealed in industrial dynamism, diversification, and
competitiveness. National TC is not simply a sum of individual firms’ TCs
because of the externalities and interlinkages.
At the national level, getting access to relevant foreign technology also
involves an adequate policy framework for direct foreign investment,
technology transfer, capital goods imports, & intellectual property protection.
Economic growth and stability, trade regime and _ industrialization
strategy, industrial policy, science and technology policy, and education and
training are the determinants of TC development.
Knowledge in the industrial sector is conveyed through education and
training, crucial determinants of building up TC. The adequacy of national
education and training systems appears to be a crucial factor determining
how effective a country’s firms are in applying technological skills across the
full range of their activities. The availability of educated and trained people in
the appropriate disciplines is very important for industrial performance and
improvement of TC.
Macroeconomic variables, incentives for competitiveness, export
activity, industrial policies, foreign investment, technology policy, education
and training and sector specific factors influence the improvement of TC.
Technological change refers to, according to Schumpeter's definition,
to three stages: invention or the creation of the new products and processes;
innovation or the commercial application of invention; and diffusion or the
spread of the innovation into the economy.
10
CHAPTER 4
TECHNOLOGY IMPROVEMENT POLICIES IN TURKEY
National policy studies in science and technology started with the
planned economy period in Turkey. As the result of the First Five-Year
Development Plan (1961-1966), establishment of TUBITAK (Scientific and
Technical Research Council) in 1963 was the first step for the Science &
Technology _ institutionalization in Turkey. TUBITAK is responsible for
coordination and promotion of research in basic and applied sciences.
Turkey has to cope with many problems. The most vital one is to catch
up with technological changes. As Ottoman Empire missed the evolutionary
process towards an industrial society during the industrial revolution, Turkey
could not surpass the industialization threshold.
Currently, Turkey has to face the problem of overcoming this historical
gap as well as keeping up with the changes in the high-tech and post
industralization age while the industrial societies are evolving into a new era
called as Information Society. The ability of Turkey to solve these problems
will determine her future. Improving the scientific and technological ability of
Turkey and creating a dominance of science and technology is a proposed
strategic choice, which may be entitled as National Science & Technology
Policy.
At the beginning of 1980's, ‘Turkish Science Policy: 1983-2003" was
prepared with the contribution of 300 scientists and experts. This was the first
time that a detailed science and technology policy document had been
prepared.
ll
Research Priority Areas during 1980s were:
¢ Low Cost Industrial Automation
«Advanced Materials
¢ Macro-optimization of Agricultural and Forestry Production
* Optimization of Coal Utilization
* Local Production of Organic and Inorganic Chemical Materials
¢ Recycle of Agricultural and Industrial Wastes
During 1980s, the major technological advancements were in defense
industry and telecommunication sector.
The Supreme Council has put forward some goals for the 1990s:
a) increasing the number of R&D personnel to 15 per 10,000 labor force (7.5
in 1992);
b) increasing Gross Expenditure on R&D (GERD) to 1 % of the GDP (0.5 %
in 1992);
c) increasing the business enterprise’s share of R&D expenditure to 30% of
the GERD (24 % in 1992);
d) raising the Turkey's rank (38 in 1992) in joumals covered by the Science
Citation Index.
Taking Turkey's capabilities and world scientific and technological
trends and forecasts into account, the following generic technologies, in
general, have been accepted as priority areas of activity (TUBITAK, 1999):
Informatics, advanced materials, gene engineering, biotechnology, defense
technology, [aerolspace technology.
In brief, the main proposition was that Turkey has to establish her
"National Innovation System" with all the necessary building blocks of it in
12
order to enhance her ability in science and technology, and to get the
capability of transforming them to economic and social benefit.
Main Actors in the Technology Policy Area in Turkey are shown in Figure 4.1.
CORPORATIONS TUBITAK
SMEs _ UNIVERSITIES
KOSGEB PUBLIC & PRIVATE
INDUSTRIAL ASS. RESEARCH CNTR.
EMPLOYEE ASS. TECHNOLOGY CNTR.
INDUSTRY TECHNOLOGY
POLICY
SUPREME COUNCIL, PRIME MINISTRY,
GENERAL STAFF, DPT, OTHER GOVERN.
UNITS, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
Figure 4.1: Main Actors in the Technology Policy Area in Turkey
In order to finance more advanced technological industralization
Turkey can cooperate with countries at similar development levels and sell
her technology by the way of technology transfer or licensing.
Simultaneously, Turkey should cooperate with technologically advanced
countries to obtain developed technologies and know-how in these fields.
Turkish Government introduced the Law of Technology Development
Districts, which was accepted by Turkish Assembly on June 26", 2001 and
published on official newspaper on July 6", 2001. The goals of this law are
outlined as below:
13
a)
b)
d)
e)
cooperation among universities, research institutes and industrial sector,
advancement of national industry competitiveness and export scoped
structuring,
production of technological knowledge, innovation on process and
product, improvement on product quality standards and _ productivity,
reduction on production costs, commercialization of technological
knowledge/data,
supporting technology intensive production and enterpreneurship and
harmonization of smallmedium size companies with new/advanced
technologies,
creation of investment opportunities at technology intensive environment
by taking into account the decisions of Science & Technology Steering
Committee and job opportunities for researchers and capable people,
assisting technology transfer and establishment of an infrastructure for
rapid penetration of foreign capital technology investment
As itis stated in the “Science and Technology Committee” report;
Homogeneous regional dynamics,
Existence of the universities,
Dynamic university-firm relationship,
Support and willingness of the local authorities,
Existence of directive private-governmental enterprises,
Existence of qualified, trained workforce,
Ease of financial support,
Information and transportation infrastructure,
Existence of strategic support mechanism,
14
* Closeness to the Research and Development Centers,
¢ Availability of regional networks for communication and corperation,
* Closeness to the prospective markets,
are the major factors of regional innovation systems, and thus national
innovation system.
Realization of Science & Technology Progress in Turkey is the major
axis of the 7 Five-Year Plan. One of the targeted goals is the increase of
R&D Expenditure/GNP ratio from 0.33% to 1%. Only financial resource
reservation is not enough for Science & Technology Progress and also
education/training and demand are the other important issues. There should
be a demand for product development design and production and_ this
demand should be directed to Science & Technology Centers for realization
in order to improve Science & Technology level of Turkey.
15
CHAPTER 5
SYSTEM DYNAMICS AS A TOOL
During the 1940s, formal analysis, often involving mathematical and
Statistical techniques, had been applied to the problems of 2"? World War,
then to the industries and business firms. They were formalized into
disciplines of operational research and management science, that were
excellent and powerful methods dealing with certain classes of problems.
The ability of the system adjusting the status during the circumstances
changes as the time passes was not the aspect of the management thus,
disciplines of operational research and management science. However, the
behavior of a system as time passes and new decisions have to be taken
accordingly is a significant type of management problem, which requires the
analyst to tackle the issues of a system reacts to dynamic elements and how
those reactions shape its moves into the future. Problems can be
complicated, it is necessary to have a methodology for dealing with them,
and System Dynamics provides this methodology and it is interpreted as the
branch of management science which deals with the dynamics and
controllability of managed systems.
System Dynamics originated at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology in the late 1950s by Professor Jay W. Forrester. His first
explanations on System Dynamics was in his’ classic book
‘Principal of Systems”, which was first published in 1958. With his book
“Industrial Dynamics” a number of models of industrial problems had been
developed.
16
Some definitions of System Dynamics;
(Forrester, 1961)
System Dynamics is the investigation of the information-feedback
characteristics of managed systems and use of models for the design of
improved organizational form and guiding policy.
(Coyle, 1995)
System Dynamics deal with the timedependent behavior of managed
systems with the aim of describing the system and understanding, through
qualitative and quantitative models, how information-feedback govems its
behavior, and designing robust information feedback structures and control
policies through simulation and optimization.
System Dynamics can fundamentally improve the effectiveness of
management decision making, since it was designed to model complex
systems by representing the structure, processes, strategies and information
flows. Therefore it can be used during the phase of policy making.
Once a conceptual appreciation has been developed for the dynamics
of complex systems, meaningful simulation models can be constructed to
translate those mental models into simulations. Simulations allow us to
shrink space and time to see the short and long term effects of our decisions.
During the identification of technology policy, a representative model
of technology environment can be prepared and what if scenarios can be
implemented for better and tested decisions.
Technology Improvement Policy Evaluation will be approached in five
stages: problem identification and definition, modeling, analysis of models,
policy evaluation and possible future studies.
17
CHAPTER 6
NATIONAL TECHNOLOGY IMPROVEMENT POLICY
MODELING
Later, during the 1970s, once the importance of technology had been
fully recognized, more attention had begun to be paid to strategic Technology
Policy-making as it is an important issue of increasing concem in most
countries now. Thus Technology Policymakers should be supported by
policy construction and analysis tools and decision support systems.
Current and past technology improvement policies that Turkey has
followed have been demonstrated in previous sections. Our purpose is to
employ System Dynamics approach to develop a model for technology
improvement at national scale, which may serve as a decision support tool
for strategic S&T policy makers.
Following an extensive literature search and_ interviews/discussions
with experts, relationship between the entities related to technology and
technology improvement policy has been shaped. Major feedback loops and
concentration areas have been identified. The model is based upon mainly;
the conducted literature search, opinions of experts, the advisor & the author.
Interview / discussion is one of the major qualitative research
techniques. Qualitative and quantitative research techniques are
complementary to each other. Thus both techniques should be used during
any study to reach a more reliable conclusion. In this article both techniques
had been used during the construction of the System Dynamics Modeling.
18
After identifying the major concentration areas and feedback loops,
influence diagrams of the technology improvement policy model has been
drawn. Influence Diagram of the model is given in Appendix-A. Simulation
model of the technology improvement policy model could be constructed by
the help of influence diagram drawn.
Although STELLA is widely used and known in the literature, System
Dynamics software "iThink" is selected for the construction and analysis of
the simulation model. Both STELLA and iThink software are the products /
software of ‘High Performance Systems, Inc.’ (HPS) and they are very similar
to each other. "iThink" is a Microsoft Windows based simulation software
package and it enables the users to represent the model and the outcomes
graphically. The reasons of this selection are the user-friendly structure,
availability of the software and author's familiarity with this software.
When the developed Influence Diagram is studied some concentration
zones can be identified in the diagram. Experts’ opinions taken and the
results of the literature survey on technology were used during the
identification of these concentration zones. By this way both qualitative and
quantitative research/evaluation methods had been used.
These clusters are:
a) Free Technology Zones,
b) Fusion-Diffusion and Transfer of Technology,
c) Academia-Govemment,
d) R&D Expenditures,
e) Technological Capability of Turkey,
f) National Innovation System (NIS),
19
g) ProductProcess Development,
h) Technology Improvement
a) Free Technology Zones
This cluster is one of the main clusters in the system. There is
remarkable number of outward and inward bounds with several other clusters
and individual entities. The more Government Funds allocated, the more
number of Free Technology Zones can be established in the country. As they
will be the sources of fusion and diffusion of technology there exits more
inventive and/or innovative and ToT activities. The more corporation with
multinational firms within the Zones the more fruitful the industry, thus the
more competitive shall be the country. As these outcomes occur, technology
will be improved in Turkey. Unfortunately currently there is no Free
Technology Zone in Turkey.
b) Fusion-Diffusion and Transfer of Technology (ToT)
This cluster is one of the main clusters in the system. There is
remarkable number of outward and inward bounds with several other clusters
like Free Technology Zone, Technology Improvement and_ individual entities.
Inward investment, international programs, technical co-operations and free
technology zones shall be the sources of ToT. Transferred technologies can
be diffused during the ‘Know How’ and/or ‘Know Why’ stages and also inward
and outward investments diffuses the fused technologies. On the other hand
intemational programs shall increase the number of strategic alliances. As a
result, fusion and diffusion of technologies shall cause upgrading of
technological capabilities and the improvement of technology in Turkey.
20
c) Academia-Government
Within this cluster there is a strong relationship between funds and
labs. Availability of labs and funds are positively supporting university-
industry research centers. This cluster has also strong bounds with the other
clusters such as NIS, Product-Process Development and R&D Expenditure.
Govemment, Private and Intemational Funds are financial sources of labs,
university-industry research centers and R&D Expenditures. Funds are also
consumed for process and product development activities. Funds, university-
industry research centers, labs are the main cornerstones of NIS. NIS is one
of the affecting factor of technology improvement of Turkey.
d) R&D Expenditures
Within this cluster there is a strong relationship between funds and
R&D expenditure. R&D Expenditures are directly related with Funds,
Invention, Innovation and Product & Process Development Funds and risk
capital are the main resources of R&D Expenditures. R&D Expenditures are
for invention, innovation and product & process development The more
expected profit from the sale of the new product and/or process, the more
financial resources denoted for R&D Expenditures.
e) Technological Capability of Turkey
Within this cluster there is strong relationship with Industrial Growth,
Technological Capability of Firms and NIS. As the technological capability of
the firms are upgraded eventually technological capability of Turkey shall
also be advanced. NIS and Strategic Alliances should also take special
attention. The imported goods shall be reduced and technology improvement
of Turkey shall be sustained if technological capability of Turkey advances.
21
Although the tariff & tax revenues shall reduce, income from export shall
increases as the technological capability of fis and technological capability
of Turkey advance. If technological capability of Turkey advances the
intemational competitiveness of Turkey will also increase.
f) National Innovation System (NIS)
University-Industry Research Centers, Funds, Labs and Technological
capability of firms are the main sources of NIS and NIS has bounds with to
main cluster such as, Technological Capability of Turkey and Technology
Improvement In order to establish NIS govemment-private-intemational
funds university-industry research centers laboratories and _ technological
capability of the firms should be well coordinated and motivated. NIS has
strong positive affect on technological capability of Turkey and thus
technology improvement of Turkey. Establishment of weltorganized NIS
definitely requires effective integration of governmental organizations, private
firms and educational institutions.
9) Product-Process Development
Product-Process Development has direct links with Invention,
Innovation, Labs, Technological Capability of the Firms and Upgrading
Technological Capability. This cluster has also strong relationship with
clusters Academia-Govemment and Free Technology Zones. Govemment,
private and international funds shall be used for productprocess
development Both private labs and university-government labs are used for
research on product-process development New products and/or new
processes will affect output positively thus there will eventually be an output
increase. But on the other hand outward investments shall reduce in country
22
output The purpose of product-process development should be invention,
innovation of new products and/or processes, upgrading technological
capability in general and of the firms. In the conclusion productprocess
development has indirect but positive affect on technology improvement of
Turkey. An extensive productprocess development capability requires well-
aimed R&D Expenditure.
h) Technology Improvement
This cluster is the core of this study. NIS, Technological Capability of
Turkey, Fusion-Diffusion of Technology and Industrial Growth are the direct
sources of Technology Improvement Technology improvement of Turkey
can be achieved if required NIS is well evaluated and defined, new products
and processes shall be invented or innovated, new processes are adapted to
manufacturing processes and obsolesce technologies shall be replaced by
newly fused and diffused technologies. By this way growth of Turkish
Industry will be realized thus aim of technology improvement of Turkey shall
be reached.
As it could be understood from the developed Influence Diagram that
policy formulation for technology improvement is very difficult and
sophisticated. For the formulation and modeling of the technology
improvement policy simulation model, qualitative and quantitative relations of
technology policy determinants have analyzed in more detail.
In the next chapter, simulation model for the technology improvement
policy in Turkey and various scenarios implemented for the technology policy
analysis of Turkey will be discussed respectively.
23
CHAPTER 7
APPLICATION OF THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
The purpose of the system dynamics modeling in this article is to
understand technology improvement system, to identify the related entities
with their effects on national technology improvement policy and to see the
trend of the technology improvement in Turkey with respect to time
(15 years) by simulating some possible scenarios.
Author built the ‘ithink’ system simulation model to understand why
some behavior pattern of the technology improvement policy system is
occurring and to see what might be done to alter the pattem later during the
scenario simulation phase by using the influence diagram of the technology
improvement system.
A reference behavior pattem, which is a graph over some period of
time of variables, which best characterizes technology improvement system
identified by the author for ‘as is’ and ‘should be’ statuses (HPS Software
Manuel). An expected reference behavior pattern for what is and what it
should be is given below.
Technology Improvement
In Turkey Should be
Asis
Years (15 Years)
Figure 7.1: Expected Reference Behavior Pattern
24
By the help of developed Influence Diagram, simulation system
dynamics model built Building the simulation model begins with the
development of a System Diagram, which is a high-level map of the key
sectors or actors within the model and the material/information links between
them. In order to develop the system diagram of the simulation model, 11
sectors have been used.
The names of the sectors and their contents are given below.
1. Outward-Inward Investment
This sector contains and calculates the figures of investments into
Turkey and investments out of Turkey to the other countries and the ratio of
inward to outward investment.
Base: In. Invest: 3,050,000,000 USD Out. Invest: 775,000,000 USD
2. R&D Expenditures
This sector contains & calculates the figures of government & private
firms’ R&D expenditures & the ratio of private/government R&D expenditures.
Base: Gov. R&D: 624,000,000 USD Pri. R&D: 416,000,000 USD
3. Economy GNP
This sector contains and calculates the GNP figure of Turkey. The
base GNP is 195 billion USD.
4. Economy Ratios
This sector contains and calculates the ratios related to GNP of
Turkey, R&D expenditures and total investments.
5. Population
This sector contains and calculates the population figure of Turkey.
The base population of Turkey is 65,000,000.
25
6. Universities
This sector contains and calculates the figures of University-Industry
Research Centers (USAM), published articles in the abroad by Turkish
instructors and available number of instructors in Turkey and the related
ratios.
Base: Number of USAM: 12 Instructors: 22,001 Articles: 4,742
7. TUBITAK Projects
This sector contains and calculates the figures of proposed and
accepted projects by TUBITAK.
Base: Proposed Projects: 933 Accepted Projects: 329
8. Education Level
This sector contains and calculates education figure of the people who
have ages between 25-64 & have education higher than high school grade.
Base: Education Level: 17 %
9. Technology Value Added
This sector contains and calculates technology value added
government/ private R&D, GNP and technology based manufacturing. The
base GNP growth per year is 80 USD.
Industrial Development
This sector contains and calculates the number of firms supplying risk
capital and ratio of high tech exporting to low tech exporting.
Base: Number of Risk Cap. F: 5 High Tech: 8 % Low Tech: 78 %
Technology Improvement
This sector calculates level of National Innovation System (NIS) and
National Technology Improvement in Turkey.
26
System Diagram of the simulation model constructed is given in Appendix-B.
The dynamic organizing principle that is the core of the simulation
model is stock/ flow/converter-based structure.
During the building of simulation model technology improvement
dynamic model, stocks, flows and converters aggregated into largest
possible sector. The sectors are representing by using process frames.
The most important accumulations of the system diagram are the NIS
and Technology Improvement.
Other major stocks, flows and converters with their full descriptions
used within the sectors of the simulation model can be listed as below.
Stocks:
econ G N P: Gross National Product of Turkey
edu level: Education Level ages 25-64 and high school or above
inward invest: inward investment
outward invest outward investment
pop: population of Turkey
gov R&D: Goverment R&D expenditure
pri R&D: Private R&D expenditure
NIS: National Innovation System
Techno Impr: Technology Improvement in Turkey
gov R&D tVA: Government R&D expenditure based on technology value
added
pri R&D tVA: Private R&D expenditure based on technology value added
tech GNP: GNP based on technology value added
27
accepted: Number of projects accepted by TUBITAK
proposed: Number of projects proposed to TUBITAK
article: Number of articles published by Turkish instructors in the abroad
instructors: Number of instructors in Turkey
num firm: Number of firms in USAM studies
Num USAM: Number of USAM
Rating Converters:
inc rate GNP: Increasing rate of GNP
edu level inc rate: Education level increasing rate
h tech exp: high technology export
| tech exp: low tech export
N of Risk f: Number of risk capital firms
inc rate iw: increasing rate of inward investment
inc rate ow: increasing rate of outward investment
inc rate pop: increasing rate of population in Turkey
inc rate g R&D: increasing rate of government R&D
inc rate pri R&D: increasing rate of private R&D
inc rate g R&D tVA: increasing rate of government R&D based on techno VA
inc rate pri R&D tVA: increasing rate of private R&D based on techno VA
tech GNP inc: rate of techno based GNP
inc tech manuf: increasing rate of technology based manufacturing
inc r acc: increasing rate of accepted projects by TUBITAK
inc r pro: increasing rate of proposed projects to TUBITAK
inc r art: increasing rate of number of articles published by Turkish instructors
inc rinst incresing rate of instructors in Turkey
28
inc r firm: increasing rate of number of firms cooperating with USAMs
inc r USAM: increasing rate of number of USAMs
Flows:
yrly GNP: Yearly GNP increase
yrly edu level: Y early education level increase
yrly iinve : Y early inward investment increase
yrly oinve : Y early outward investment increase
yrly pop: Y early population increase
yrly g R&D: Y early government R&D expenditure increase
yrly pri R&D: Y early private R&D expenditure increase
yrly g R&D tVA: Yearly government R &D expenditure increase based on
techVA
yrly pri R&D tVA: Y early private R&D expenditure increase based on techVA
yrly tech GNP: Yearly technology based GNP increase
yrly acc: Y early accepted projects by TUBITAK
yrly pro: Y early proposed projects to TUBITAK
yrly art: Y early articles published increase
yrly inst: Y early instructors increase
yrly firm: Y early firms in USAM cooperation increase
yrly USAM: Yearly USAM increase
Graphical functions have been used to represent trends and
increasing rate of the entities within the simulation model. The model became
simulatable model after the formulation and numeration of the elements of
the technology improvement model. Simulation model built for the technology
improvement policy is given in Appendix-C.
29
After the construction of the simulation model of national technology
improvement of Turkey, the model was run with different policy options. The
model was run for the period 2000-2014. It must be noted that real figures
were used as much as possible. There are 5 scenarios for the analysis of
different technology improvement policy of Turkey. The outputs of the runs
were evaluated accordingly.
Scenarios applied to the simulation model are given below.
a)
b)
d)
e)
a)
Scenario 1: Base run
Scenario 2: Increase number of risk capital firms, high/low technology
export ratio and increase private R&D
Scenario 3: Increase number of firms in USAM cooperation,
article/instructor ratio and education level
Scenario 4: Increase technology value added effect
Scenario 5: Increase outward investment and decrease inward
investment
Scenario 1: Base Run
The base run is performed without any policy suggestion in the future.
The purpose of this run is to evaluate the trend and model outputs and to
compare the trend with the reference behavior model.
The resultant graph can be seen in Figure 7-2.
30
BF 1: Techno imor
1 0.60)
di 0.304
1
a *
st
1 0.007! T T
1.00 4.50 8.00 11.50 15.00
a af Graph 1 (Figure 7-2) Years 07:52 18.12.2001]
Figure 7-2: Scenario-1: BASE RUN
b) Scenario 2 : Increase number of risk capital firms, high /low
technology export ratio and private R&D
Currently there are five risk capital firms namely, Yp Bank, Vakyf Bank,
Turkiye Teknoloji Geliptime Vakfy (TTGV), TUBITAK and KOSGEB. In the
base model; every 3 years there is one more new risk capital firm
establishment, current high technology export percentage of Turkey was
about 8% and gradually increases 4% and private R&D investment increase
is 5%. According to scenario there will be one more new risk capital firm
establishment every year, the high technology export percentage will be
increased 5% and the private R&D investment increasing rate will be 20%.
Turkey has very few number of risk capital firms and also their
budgets are very limited. Especially in the USA and EU there is very huge
31
amount of risk capital investment In the USA the risk capital investment is
about 9.5 Billion USD (1996) and it is 6.7 Billion USD (1996) for EU (Erol
Taymaz, 2001). Currently both high technology export and private R&D
percentages are low in Turkey. The figures in industrialized countries are
around 60-70% and 50-70% respectively.
As number of risk capital firms, high / low technology export ratio and
private R&D expenditure values are increasing, the technology improvement
is achieved. Especially there is an upward trend on technology improvement
after 11" year.
The resultant graphs can be seen in Figure 7-3 and 7-4.
#1: Techno imor 2: N of Risk f 3: vs Itech exp 4: pri RED
BUN
0.30
7.0 — f
BwNE
1.0
6.50e+00}
=
\"
1.00 4.50 8.00 11.50 15.00
aeF Graph 2 (Figure 7-3) Years 07:54 18.12.2001]
Figure 7-3: Scenario-2: 1°' Status
32
BF 1: Techno ior 2: N of Risk f 3: h vs | tech exp 4: pri R&D
1: 7.004
2:
3
rt
nN
1
2
3: 0.00) ye
4 0.001 T
1.00 4.50 8.00 11.50 15.00
a =a Graph 1 (Figure 7-4) Years 08:28 18.12.20:
Figure 7-4: Scenario-2: Final Status
c) Scenario 3 : Increase number of firms cooperating with USAM,
article/instructor ratio and education level
Currently there are 121 firms cooperating with USAM, there are 4742
articles published and 22001 instructors in Turkey. They are increasing 12%,
16% and 8% every year respectively. Education level is increasing 2% per
year gradually. According to scenario, new percentages will be 20%, 30% &
10% respectively and education level will increase 4% per year gradually.
Under the scope of NIS, there is extensive cooperation between
industry and the universities. In Turkey this relationship is very weak due to
lack of information about it heavy bureaucracy and has no qualified
personnel for coordination (Erol Taymaz, 2001). Article / instructor ratio &
percentage of high school, university graduates between 25-64 ages is very
low when we compare them with the figures in industrialized countries.
33
As number of firms cooperating with USAM, article/instructor ratio and
education level are increasing, the technology improvement is achieved.
The resultant graphs can be seen in Figure 7-5 and 7.6.
BD -Tecavo mor 2: num fir
3: arts inst
4:tedu level
z
2a" .
1 0.00 S
2 100.00 2 ce S|
3 020 [Ot
4 020-F =
100 450 8.00 1150 1500
aef Graph 3 (Figure 7-5) Years 07:55. 18.12.2001
. 5 2 . ast
Figure 7-5: Scenario-3: I" Status
Be Techno impr 2: num firm 3: arts inst 4:tedu level
re 3.004
2: 2000.00
5 3.00
4 0.90
oY
5
re 150 2
2 100000 J
5 150
a
r -_
2 000 Y
3 00 | :
4: 0.20—= rT T
100 450 300 1150 1500
a2F Graph 1 (Figure 7-6) Years 0807 18.12.2001
Figure 7-6: Scenario-3: Final Status
34
d) Scenario 4: Increase technology value added effect
Currenty government R&D expenditure is around 624 million USD
and private R&D expenditure is around 416 million USD. They are increasing
5% per year. Mid of 1980s unt! the beginning of 1990s, there were
remarkable technology investments. During these years the real GNP growth
was about 2%-%3 which means that technology effect on per GNP increase
was 80 USD / person. Thus at the base model 80 USD has been taken as
technology VA GNP increase. According to scenario there will be extensive
R&D and technology investment thus the govemment R&D will increase
20%, private R&D will increase 30% and technology effect on per GNP
increase will be 400 USD.
Current R&D expenditure is very low in Turkey when we compare the
figure with industrialized countries. Total R&D expenditure in Turkey (1.1
Billion USD: 1997) is even lower than the R&D expenditure of General
Electric (1.5 Billion USD: 1997), which has the lowest R%D value in the list ¢
the firms that have highest R&D expenditure. The effect of technology on
GNP increase in Turkey is also very low. Korean R&D expenditure / GNP is
2.9% (1997), in Turkey it value is %0.5 which is very low. In addition Korean
GNP per capita increased 400 USD on average.
As both private and government R&D expenditure and technology
effect on GNP increase, the technology improvements achieved.
The resultant graphs can be seen in Figure 7-7 and 7-8.
35
BP Techno impr 2: gov R&D tVA 3: pri R&D VA 4
0.6
1.30e+00!
9.00e +00:
2.00401:
6:00e+01:
GRWNE
0.30
9.50e +00:
6.50e +004
1.00e+01:
4.00401:
URWNE
\
tech GNP
5: total GNP
Graph 4 (Figure 7-7)
Years
11.50
08:00
15.00
18.12.2001]
Figure 7-7: Scenario-4: 1°* Status
BD 1: Techno impr 2: gov R&D tVA 3: pri R&D (VA
5.00q
9.50e +00:
3.00e+01
7.00e+01:
1:10e+01:
GaN
2.50
5.00e+00:
150e+01q
3.50e+01:
6.50e+01:
URUNE
0.00
5.00e+00'
0.00
erernreray
0.00
2.00e+014
AN
4: tech GNP
5: total GNP
\,
Graph 1 (Figure 7-8)
11.50
08:09
15.00
18.12.2001
Figure 7-8: Scenario- al Status
36
e) Scenario 5: Increase outward investment and decrease inward
investment
Currenty outward investment is 775 Million USD = and_ inward
investment is 3.05 Billion USD. They are gradually increasing 5% every
year. According to scenario outward investment is increasing 25% and
inward investmentis decreasing 20% every year.
In Turkey one of the main reasons of economical crisis is the unstable
inward investment in Turkey. As the economical conditions get unstable even
Turkish industry is investing in abroad such as in Romania, Bulgaria, Turkish
Independent States and Russia. Turkey should get enough inward
investment and should reduce outward investments in order to sustain a
remarkable technology improvement
As the inward investment increases and the ratio of inward / outward
investment does not increase, technology improvementis achieved.
The resultant graphs can be seen in Figure 7-9 and 7-10.
37
BP i: techno impr 2: outward invest 3: inward invest 4: tinve
1 0.694
2 1.55e+00'
3 7.00e+00
a 8'50e+00:
1 0.30
2 1.15e+00! 2 4
3 5.000+004
4 6.00e+00:
wee ¥
1
1 0.00
2 7.50 +00 a
3 300e+00f——
4 3.50e+00g=1 r
1.00 4.50 8.00 1150 15.00
a af Graph 5 (Figure 7-9) Years 08:01 18.12.2001]
‘i A st
Figure 7-9: Scenario-5: I" Status
BF 1: Techno impr 2: outward invest 3: inward invest 4: tinve
1 0.0%
2 3.00e+01
3 4.00e+00:
4 3.000401
= |
d’
1 0.01
2 150e+01
3 2.00e+00'
4: 150e+01
1
“A
(oe
1 o.oo a ee
2: 0.00) i ae +—__]
3 0.00 —:
4 0.0 r r
1.00 4.50 8.00 11.50 15.00
aeF Graph 1 (Figure 7-10) Years 08:11 18.12.2001]
Figure 7-10: Scenario-5: Final Status
38
CHAPTER 8
VALIDITY OF THE MODEL
Structural Validity
All the entities, feedback loops, concentration areas and the equations had
been identified by expert opinions and checked with literature. Thus structural
validation is achieved.
Behavioral Validity
The model produces stable data and there is no non-normal output Thus
behavioral validation is achieved.
Policy Validity
The model responds to policy changes as expected. Thus policy validation is
achieved.
Mechanical Mistake Test
There is no unexpected negative sign, question mark sign, or infinity sign in
the outputs. Thus the model passed the mechanical mistake test.
Passed Robustness Test
First each sector is simulated in isolation individually then group of sectors
and finally whole model are simulated. Thus model passed robustness test.
Reference Behavior Pattern Test
The outputs are very similar to reference behavior pattem. Thus the model
passed the reference behavior pattem test.
In conclusion, the model is valid by considering the facts discussed above.
39
CHAPTER 9
CONCLUSION
The aim of this study was to show that system dynamics methodology
is a proper and valid tool on national policy analysis for technology
improvement The results obtained are positive. The model seems to be
applicable to real life.
As there are plenty of social, economical and technical parameters
related with technology improvement activities, the abstractions made during
the construction of the model may result in some inconsistencies. They can
be corrected by more extensive analysis, adjustment of parameters and
employing other research techniques which necessitates more time than a
dissertation term allows and a research team rather than one graduate
student only.
But in spite of all above existing difficulties, this article shows that
System Dynamics methodology is proven to be a competent technique for
technology improvement policy analysis and after more precise adjustments
of the parameters, the system model representing national technology
improvement can be used by policymakers.
In order to achieve national technology improvement in Turkey,
number of risk capital firms, high / low technology export ratio, number of
firms cooperating with USAMs, number of USAMs, article/instructor ratio,
education level, both private and govemment R&D expenditures, technology
effect on GNP, inward investment should be increased and the ratio of
inward/outward investment should not be fluctuated/decreased.
40
REFERENCES
Aytekin Ziylan, Hedef Ulusal Teknoloji Yetenedinin Ytkseltiimesi Olmaly,
ASELSAN, 2000, Ankara.
Baturalp Arykal, “A System Dynamics Approach for Housing Policy Analysis:
The Case of Turkey”, Thesis of METU, 1995, Ankara.
B.E. Paulré, System Dynamics and the Analysis of Change, North-Holland
Publishing Co., 1981, New York USA.
Don Hellriegel & John W. Slocum Jr Management, Addison-Wesley
Publishing Co., 1993, USA.
Ergun Tiirkcan, Teknolojinin Ekonomi P olitisj AYTY A, 1981, Ankara.
Erol Taymaz, Ulusal Yenilik Sistemi Turkiye Ymalat Sanayiinde Teknoloji
Dedibim ve Yenilik Strecleri, TUBITAK/TTGV/DIE, 2001, Ankara.
George P. Richardson, Alexander L. Pugh Ill, Introduction to System
Dynamics Modeling, Productivity Press, 1981, Portland Oregon USA.
Gerard H. Gaynor, Handbook of Technology Management, R.R. Donnelley &
Sons Co., 1996, USA.
Halime Ynceler Saryhan, Rekabette Babarynyn Yolu Teknoloji Yénetimi,
Desnet Ltd., 1998, Ystanbul.
Harun Bal, Gelipme Strecinde Dyp Finansman Kullanymy ve Tirkiye, T.C.
Bapbakanlyk Hazine Misteparlydy, 1998, Ankara.
HPS Software Inc., An Introduction to System Thinking I-think Software, HPS
Software Inc., Hanover NH USA.
JeanEric Aubert On the OECD Experience of Country Reviews, S & T
Policy Division of OECD, Paris FRANCE.
41
Kara Harp Okulu, Dinamik Sistem Analizi Ders Notlary, Kara Harp Okulu,
2000, Ankara.
Kemal Gilec, At the 75" Anniversary of Republic, The Affect of Science,
Technology and Research Policies on Industrialization, KOSGEB, October
1998, Ankara.
Louis Edward Alfeld, The System Dynamics Modeling Methodology, Decision
Dynamics, 1994, USA.
Manas Chatter, Technology Transfer in the Developing Countries,
The Macmillan Press Ltd., 1990, London UK.
Marvin J. Cetron & Bodo Bartocha, Technology Assessment in a Dynamic
Environment, Gordon & Breach Science Publishers Inc., 1973, NY USA.
Metin Durgut, Metin Ger, Nevzat Ozgiiven, Erol Taymaz, Baha Kuban, Aykut
Goker, “Draft Science and Technology Report of Scientific and Technical
Research Council (For the 8” FiveYear Plan Preparation Studies)”,
TUBITAK, 06.01.2000, Ankara.
METU, Facts and Figures METU 2000, METU. 2001, Ankara.
METU, Facts and Figures METU 1999, METU. 2000, Ankara.
Mufit Akyos, Metin Durgut, Cadlar Gtiven, Sibel Giiven, Erol Sayyn, ‘Bolgesel
Teknolojik Kalkynma Stratejisi", ODTU Proje Onerisi, 2001, Ankara.
ODTU, ‘ODTU-TEKNOKENT’, ODTU, 1998, Ankara.
OECD, Impacts of National Technology Programmes, OECD, 1995, USA.
OECD, Research & Development in Industry 1975-1996, OECD, 1998,
Paris FRANCE.
OECD, Technology in a Changing World, OECD, 1991, Paris FRANCE.
OECD, Technology and the Economy, OECD, 1992, Paris FRANCE.
42
OECD, Main Science & Technology Indicators, OECD, 2000, Paris FRANCE.
OECD, Technology & The Economy The Key Relationships, OECD, 1992,
Paris FRANCE.
Orhan Givenen, Medium and Long Term Strategic Goals of Turkey, State
Planning Organization, 1999, Ankara.
Peter M. Senge, BeYinci Disiplin, YKY, 2001, Ystanbul.
R.G.Coyle, System Dynamic Modeling A Practical Approach Chapman &
Hall, 1995, UK.
Richard W. Stevenson & Prof. Eric F. Wolstenholme, Modeling for
Competitive Advantage (3-day Workshop Presentation), St George Swallow
Hotel, J une 1993, Harrogate USA.
Ruby Gonsen, Technological Capabilities in Developing Countries, St.
Martin's Press Inc., 1998, New York USA.
SSM Local Content & Industrial Integration Directorate, 1997-1998 Turkish
Defense Industry Products Catalogue, Undersecretariat for Defense
Industries, 1997, Ankara.
Stefan Kuhlmann, “Evaluation as a Medium of S & T Policy: Recent
Developments in Germany and Beyond”, Fraunhofer ISI Research,
GERMANY.
TUBITAK, ‘Turkey's Science & Technology Policy (Summary)”, TUBITAK
STP, J anuary 1999, Ankara.
TUBITAK, 25" Years Book of Marmara Research Center, TUBITAK Marmara
Research Center, 1997, Ystanbul.
TUBITAK Science Policy Department, General View of Turkish R&D,
TUBITAK, 1983, Ankara.
43
TUBITAK, 2000 Y yly Faaliyet Raporu, TUBITAK, 2001, Ankara.
TUBITAK, 1999 Yyly Faaliyet Raporu, TUBITAK, 2000, Ankara.
TUBITAK, 1998 Yyly Faaliyet Raporu, TUBITAK, 1999, Ankara.
Volkan Cakyr, ‘Science Parks as a Driving Force of Regional Innovation and
The Case of Eski®ehir’, Thesis of METU, 2001, Ankara.
44
APPENDIX - A
INFLUENCE DIAGRAM
MODEL OF TECHNOLOGY IMPROVEMENT POLICY - THE CASE OF TURKEY
Product Development
Free Technology Zones
a
fo innovatiow Diffusion of Technology
R&D Expenditure a
x Outward Investment Know How
Inward Investment
Technology Transfer
Technical Corporation
International Programs
Regional Integration
ry }
a
Devel
evelopment NTF,
International,
Competitiveness’
Fusion of Technology
Strategic Alliances
Imported Goods
Energy Consumption
Tax/Tariff Revenues
University.industry
Research Centers Investment on Energy
Industrial Dev. X77
APPENDIX -B
SYSTEM DIAGRAM OF THE MODEL
f Outward-Inward Inve V7
| Industrial Dev. |
Outward-Inward
|
R&D Expe \7
R&D
Expenditures
Investment
Populati S77
Population Econ Ratios V7
©) Econ Ratios
Techno. Impr. \7
Techno. Impr.
Techno. \7
Techno.VA
{ econa ww)
ECONG V7
ECON GNP
TUBITAK N77 |ovceeoned®
TUBITAK Prj
Universitie X77
Edu. Level (7
Edu. Level
46
APPENDIX-C SIMULATION MODEL
as
{R&D vs econ GNP.
inc rate ow
ie
yy olwe (rd invest,
(e;
OAR Ddames
LP
ytty finve
inc rate g R&D
tecon R&D vs pop
yiinve inc rate Tw
inivers ZN
yUSAM firm vs USAM
inc rUSAM
inc rate priR&D
Edu. Level
ylygR&D _9OVRED,
PARED
yey pa REO
edi] eM inc rate
vy etal
gare Techno.vA
yinst
— artwsinsi] meat gREOWA dado wa
ch uP
= instructor OF total GNP
i
Ne] strane wg As
eer
vty on bu
yelyare articl RE 5 pop
Baie
Ory govt WA
:
peat
ite ec 16D tv} tGNG vs &GNP
rust ZN @& Cy 1 b
Yee ace vs po \ rf prin WA
ae |_ypring ew tRS0 tVA fs total G
Techno. impr. F i.
/ nis
¥pro
ick ns
htech exp Cw 4)
Itech exp
Nof
UNIT of TI
hs lech en
47
Back to the
CC BY-NC-SA 4.0