35" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, J uly 2017
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S, Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear
sector
Authors: Sidn Cave", Steve Bennett **, Rebecca Pleasant ““* & Emma Woodham*
z Decision Analysis Services Ltd
** Cogent Skills
*** — Nuclear Decommissioning A uthority
Abstract
A highly skilled workforce of approximately 80,000 full time equivalents is currently
employed within the UK nuclear sector in a range of occupations that includes
scientists, engineers, project managers and other technical and executive staff.
Projections of workforce demand are comparatively accessible since major projects are
well defined and planned many years in advance. In the UK there is expected to be a
rapid upturn in demand over the next decade, primarily driven by the plan to build five
new power stations, with an estimated peak of around 100,000 in 2022. The future
workforce supply is more difficult to determine as a result of the multiple workforce
entry points (e.g. through apprenticeships and from other sectors), and the many
attributes that define the workforce such as, occupation, training background, time to
competence, and so forth. In order to handle this large parameter space and support the
development of better supply projections, the UK Nuclear Skills Strategy Group
(NSSG), which is accountable for developing a skills strategy to secure the supply of
qualified and competent staff, has commissioned a System Dynamics based workforce
model. The NSSG consists of key employers and government representatives, for both
the civil and defence nuclear sectors. This paper describes the model and modelling
process that has been developed for UK nuclear industry on their behalf.
Key Words: System dynamics, workforce planning, nuclear, strategy, apprenticeships
March 2017
35" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, J uly 2017
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S, Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
1 Introduction
This paper describes a major project to model the supply of skills for the UK nuclear
industry. The project was commissioned by the Nuclear Skills Strategy group (NSSG),
which consists of key employers and govemment representatives across the civil and
defence nuclear sectors. Its primary role is to develop a nuclear skills strategy to secure
the required supply of qualified and competent personnel, for which a reliable source of
Labour Market Intelligence (LMI) is essential. While demand data is comparatively
accessible, since major projects are well defined and planned many years in advance,
the matching supply side is formed from a number potential routes whose contributions
vary with time, geography, occupation and training background.
The work was carried out by Cogent Skills with support from Decision Analysis
Services Ltd (DAS). Cogent is a not-for-profit organisation working with strategically
important science-based industries in the UK to develop their existing workforces and
ensure a pipeline of new talent. Specifically here, it works in partnership with other
skills bodies and government, under the auspices of the NSSG, to examine the current
and future needs of the nuclear industry. Cogent Skills is supported by DAS who
provide specialist system dynamics consultancy. DAS deliver effective solutions to the
challenging issues facing government and industry in highly regulated sectors using
systems modelling and simulation methods.
This paper describes the work undertaken to model skills supply at a time of renaissance
of nuclear power generation in the UK alongside an on-going programme of submarine
construction. As a pioneering nation in nuclear power generation the UK also has a
large decommissioning programme that will operate for decades to come.
For many years the workforce and skills requirements have remained long-term and
reasonably stable. As proposals for new generating capability have evolved, and new
technological opportunities identified, the dynamics of the supply and demand have
become less intuitive. Strategic planning now requires a transparent, flexible and
dynamic model of the workforce.
1.1 Contents
Section 2 describes the challenge of workforce planning for the UK nuclear sector.
Section 3 describes the systems dynamics model that has been developed to provide
projections of future workforce supply. Section 4 describes how the model is being
used and provides some emerging results from the workforce modelling. Finally,
Section 5 provides some initial conclusions and provides potential next steps for the
modelling work.
March 2017
35" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, J uly 2017
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S, Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
2 The challenge — Workforce planning for the UK nuclear sector
2.1 The UK’s nuclear sector workforce
The UK’s nuclear workforce (civil, defence and supply chain) comprises around 80,000
full time equivalents, but is expected to require expansion to a peak in the region of
100,000 as a result of a programme to build a fleet of new generating stations. Although
the vast majority of the workforce requires some nuclear training to ensure safety, more
than 80% of skills are characterised as generic, in the sense that the core disciplines are
the technical, scientific and engineering skills employed elsewhere, and particularly
other safety critical industries.
While nuclear specific skills do not dominate, the workforce is a highly technically
skilled one. At the same time, nuclear policy over the last twenty years or so has
resulted in a workforce older than the national average for the employed population.
In the short and medium term the proposal for new civil nuclear generating capacity, the
first in the UK since the commissioning of Sizewell B in 1995, will cause a rapid up-
tum in workforce demand. Five new power stations are planned, each taking between 5
and 9 years to build, with a sixth currently undergoing assessment. The projects are
private enterprises drawing on skills from the same pool as parts of the defence
programme.
In the longer term the possibility has been noted for the development of future
technologies, for example small modular reactors, or Generation IV reactors, to make
use of an enhanced skill base while further adding to the supply of low carbon
electricity.
Across the nuclear industry, the necessary experience to achieve competence varies
hugely between occupations, from a few weeks for basic training for access to a
construction site with no nuclear fuel, to 10 to 15 years to develop subject matter
experts. This in particular makes the modelling of the skills supply difficult without the
sophistication of a system dynamics model.
However, with the right model structure in place, broader issues can also be addressed,
for example the balance of between apprenticeships and higher education degrees,
driven by government priorities, or the influence of workers migrating from other
sectors as the economy changes.
Cogent Skills’ role is in collating workforce data from a variety of sources and
providing analysed LMI to inform skills policy for the NSSG, Government, Training
Providers and others.
Over the last 4 years a comprehensive demand side picture has been built, but with a
limited supply side component based principally on projections of the current
workforce. Although this is useful in predicting likely required recruitment rates to meet
expansion and replacement demand, it fails to reflect the complexity of the supply
March 2017
35" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, J uly 2017
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S, Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
routes that are critical in determining the delays in supply. The model described here,
marks an important, and much sought improvement in developing robust projections.
2.2 System Dynamics and workforce planning
System Dynamics is a modelling approach that enables complex systems to be better
understood, and their behaviour over time to be projected using computer simulation.
System Dynamics was first developed in the 1960’s by Jay Forrester (Forester, 1961)
with many more important texts produced in the subsequent years (for example see
Sterman, 2000; Warren 2007 and Morecroft 2007). The System Dynamics approach has
been successfully used across many different sectors.
The approach is composed of two key components; the first is mapping the system to
better understand it, and the second is using computer simulation to calculate system
behaviour over time.
2.2.1 Mapping the system to understand behaviour
The first stage of a System Dynamics based project involves mapping the cause and
effect relationships that drive system behaviour. System Dynamics uses specific
diagramming notation such as stock and flow diagrams or causal loop diagrams to map
the system.
A Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) is used to capture major feedback mechanisms. The
diagram includes variables and arrows (causal links) linking these variables together. A
Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD) captures the main stocks in the system, and the flows
that act to increase and decrease the size of the stocks.
Figure 1 illustrates the differences between CLDs and SFDs, based on the same
simplified workforce supply system. In both diagrams the number in training is
increased by start training and reduced by complete training. They then move into the
workforce size stock, where they leave as a result of the attrition rate. The rate people
start training is based on the difference between the desired workforce size and the
actual workforce size:
March 2017
35" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, J uly 2017
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S, Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
desired
workforce size
number in
difference between ead workforce size
supply and desired
7 complete traini workforce
start training pI ng pleats
delay time years Chalet?
Causal Loop Diagram
WORKFORCE SIZE
yee
‘supply and —
vA =a eS
5 i
‘start training nie Complete workforce
iil Training atrition
DELAY TIME
Stock and Flow Diagram YEARS ATTRITION RATE
Figure 1: Example Causal Loop Diagram and Stock and Flow diagram for a simplified workforce system
The diagrams are created with the system stakeholders, who best understand how the
system of interest works. The completed diagrams represent a shared understanding of
the system, which can then be used in many ways, for example to investigate points
where interventions could be made.
2.2.2 Simulating the system to quantify behaviour
Once an agreed diagrammatic representation of the system has been created, specialist
software can be used to quantify the relationships. The completed simulation model is
then available to rapidly test system interventions in a risk free environment.
The simulation model provides a means to calculate change over time depending on the
underlying assumptions and proposed interventions. System Dynamics models simulate
rapidly using management information data sources. The models can be developed to
produce outputs using desired performance measures, and validated against historical
data.
A number of authors have produced guidance on producing robust SD models, for
example see Sterman (2000), Keating (1999), Randers (1980) and Cave (2014).
2.2.3 Application of System Dynamics to workforce planning
System Dynamics has been applied a number of times in support of strategic workforce
planning, across a variety of different sectors such as:
March 2017
35" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, J uly 2017
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S, Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
e Health and social care (for example see Brailsford and De Silva (2015); Barber
and Lopez-Valcarcel (2010), Masnick and McDonnell (2010) and Cave, Willis
and Woodward (2016)).
e Defence (for example see Armenia et al (2012); Bakken, Ostbye and Roksund
(2005))
Logistics (for example see GrofBler and Zock (2010)
Agriculture (for example see Nanda, Rama and Vizayakumar (2005))
Professional services (for example see Kunc, 2008)
Information Technology (see McLucas and Lewis (2008), Collofello et al (1998)
and Cave et al (2011))
eoeoee
There is no evidence in the literature of SD having been used for strategic workforce
planning for those workforces operating within the nuclear sector.
3 Nuclear Workforce Supply Side Model (NWSSM)
This Section provides a description of the System Dynamics model and the
development approach that was adopted.
3.1 High-level model requirement
The high-level model requirement bounded the model scope, and was agreed prior to
commencing model development. This was agreed to be:
This model is to be developed in response to a Nuclear Strategy Skills Group
(NSSG) requirement to describe the supply of skills to the nuclear industry, in a
way that complements an already developed demand side picture. It will allow
scenarios to be designed that in turn inform policy decisions on the level and
timing of training and recruitment to meet the UK nuclear programme. The model
is required to represent a common source of university graduates and
apprenticeships feeding up to 20 different high level resource codes! (HLRC). The
model is required to project the workforce supply over a 20 year time horizon.
The model requirement was referred to throughout the development process to ensure
that the model was going to meet the fundamental objectives the model was being
developed to meet.
3.2 Model development approach
The model was developed from October 2016 to January 2017. A typical approach for
model development, as shown in Figure 2, was followed during the project:
! A High Level Resource Code is part of the taxonomy agreed within the industry around a common
definition of 20 or so key occupations. Examples are Quality Assurance, Project Management and
Design.
March 2017
35" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, J uly 2017
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S, Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
Model construction
Model documentation
Model testing
Figure 2: High level h for ping a System Dynamics model (adapted from Cave (2014))
During the model scoping stage a formal model specification for the model was created
based on input from the relevant stakeholders. The specification defined the scope and
purpose of the model. The model specification also captured the structural assumptions
that the model would be based upon. The specification was kept up to date as model
assumptions were updated during the construction process, and was the starting point
for the formal model description.
During the model construction stage the model was built using Vensim DSS? and MS
Excel (the architecture is described in more detail in Section 3.4). The model was built
iteratively so that the structures could be reviewed by the Cogent project lead and
refined as appropriate. This stage also included data acquisition to enable the model to
be reviewed based on realistic input data.
The model was then then formally documented and tested. The model documentation
included information of the model purpose, the assumptions the model was based upon
and instructions on how to use the model. Formal model testing was carried out by an
independent SD modeller against a formal test specification which was developed based
on checklists given in Cave (2014). Cogent also carried out user acceptance testing.
Stakeholders were involved throughout the process, for example to get agreement on the
model representation and to “sanity check” model results.
3.3 Conceptual basis for the model
A key output of the model scoping stage was to derive the underlying conceptual model
for the SD model which was agreed upon by the stakeholder group. This was created in
workshops using Stock and Flow notation, and defined not only the supply stages that
the model would represent, but also the model boundary.
Figure 3 below provides a high level view of the conceptual basis of the model:
? www.Vensim.com
March 2017
35" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, J uly 2017
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S, Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
PhO/Mastors
Differentaactor
Differenteountry
L7 L8 Industry
L7 L8 trainee Mover training
Differentsector
Differentcountry
LS.L6 Industry Pore mtuY
L5L6 trainee L6 Supply Treesrind movers awaiting
sini clearances
LSL6 Degree
apprenticeships
reskill
Differentsector
Differentcountey
LS L4 Industry
L3.L4 trainee 3L4 Supply Mover training
reskil
Differentsector
Differenteountey
L1 L2 Industry
movers awaiting
clearances
LA Laindustry
Lt L2 trainee L1L2 Supply Mover taining
apprenticeships
Figure 3: High level conceptual basis for the model
Figure 3 illustrates the key stocks that would be required for the model, along with the
main flows. For simplicity, flows like attritions from the stocks are not shown, but
would need to be represented in the quantitative model.
Each of the rectangles in the diagram represents a number of people at various stages of
training or within the workforce itself. In addition, each rectangle represents different
high level resource codes.
Four different role levels are considered, representing a combination of qualification,
knowledge and experience, and referenced to the UK Regulated Qualification
Framework (RQF)* levels 1 to 8. In broad terms these correspond to:
e Level 1 Level 2 (L1 L2) — Semi or unskilled occupations with qualifications
typically at basic secondary school level. Sometimes including lower level
vocational training at level 2
e Level 3 Level 4 (L3 L4) — Skilled occupations with qualifications at higher
secondary school level or following vocational training with a sponsoring
employer.
e Level 5 Level 6 (L5 L6) — Higher technical and professional roles often,
although not uniquely, combined with a university first degree.
3 The RQF systemises qualifications in England and Northem Ireland and maps to the European
Qualifications Framework. https://ofqual.blog.gov.uk/2015/10/01/explaining-the-rgf/
March 2017
35" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, J uly 2017
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S, Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
e Level 7 Level 8 (L7 L8) — Higher technical and professional roles with some
technical specialism and/or a long period of experience gained within the
industry. This might include higher degrees (MSc and PhD).
The blue rectangles in the central column of the diagram represent the supply of
competent workers capable of meeting demand at the four different skill level groups
for the different high level resource codes. It is possible for people to reskill from one
high level resource code to another, and also to upskill from one skill level group to
another. Reskilling occurs through formal training/apprenticeship and upskilling
through formal training or through experience.
There are two routes through to the supply stocks. The first is through apprenticeships
and following formal education. This route is shown to the left of the supply stocks. The
brown rectangles represent the different apprenticeships that could feed into the
nuclear sector. Following an apprenticeship a period of job specific training is required,
shown in the subsequent green rectangles in order to achieve competence prior to
moving into the supply stocks. Direct entry to these stocks is possible, for example
someone completing a degree can proceed to the L5 L6 trainee stock.
The second route to the supply stocks is for people coming to the UK nuclear sector
from another sector or country. This route is shown to the right of the supply stocks.
The purple rectangles represent experienced hires awaiting security clearances and/or
foreign qualification validation. Following clearances being received, a period of job
specific training is required, shown in the subsequent green rectangles in order to
achieve competence prior to moving into the supply stocks.
This conceptual basis for the UK nuclear system formed the basis of the quantitative
model development.
3.4 Model architecture
The quantitative model was developed using an Excel and Vensim model architecture,
as illustrated in Figure 4 below:
Nuclear Workforce Supply Side Model
Subscript elements
Excel Data sndineat data Vensim SD
Interface Model
Figure 4: Model architecture
The Excel data interface contained all the data input into the model, and the definition
of the model segmentation.
March 2017
35" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, J uly 2017
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S, Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
The Vensim model calculated the supply projections based upon the model input data,
over a time horizon of 20 years. A single run took approximately 5 seconds to simulate.
Analysis of the results was carried out using Vensim’s native analytical tools.
3.5 System Dynamics model
The System Dynamics model was developed based on the conceptual model described
in Section 3.3. In addition to the key flows shown in the Figure 3, the model also
contains additional flows in order to represent:
e Attrition from the stocks
e Flows of people leaving the system following the completion of apprenticeships,
training and the clearance processes
Each of the stocks in the model are heavily segmented. In order to make the model as
flexible as possible the majority of the subscripts are defined within the Excel data
interface, and the model segmentation updates each time the model is simulated. Model
segmentation includes:
e Apprentices — Apprentices follow a programme of vocational training with a
sponsoring employer at RQF Levels 2, 3 or 4. The model is currently defined
with 72 different apprenticeship standards.
e Degree Apprenticeship- Degree Apprenticeships have been designed and
promoted to combine higher education and with the industry focus of
apprenticeships. The model is currently defined with 9 different types of degree
apprenticeship.
e Graduate —- Degree and higher level degree courses. The model is currently
defined with 15 different types of graduate degree.
e High Level Resource Code (HLRC) — A wide range of role descriptors is used
across the industry by different employers. A taxonomy based on some 100
agreed resource codes has been devised by the industry and skills bodies to
allow workforce data to be compared. These have been further grouped into
HLRCs to manage the presentation of workforce data in a reasonable number of
occupations. The model is currently defined with 20 different HLRCs.
e Region— Geographical location. The model is currently defined with 8 different
regions.
The excel spreadsheet also contains all the data required to initialise the model,
including all of the delays associated with the apprenticeship/training and clearance
processes.
Each of the training and supply stocks have units of people, and represent a head count.
Actual supply is calculated in terms of Full Time Equivalents (FTE), which is
March 2017
35" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, J uly 2017
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S, Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
calculated from the supply stocks multiplied by the appropriate participation rate*. The
projections are heavily segmented and can be presented by the following dimensions:
e High Level Resource Code
e Skill Level
e Region
The model projects supply forward over twenty years, using a one month time step, and
takes approximately 5 seconds to run a single simulation. The System Dynamics model
also includes the demand calculated from Cogent’s nuclear sector demand model to
enable comparison between supply and demand within V ensim.
Finally, the model includes a mass balance to test for the conservation of material
within the system, all variables have their units defined, and all variables include an
expected range to alert the user to deviations from normal behaviour.
3.6 Data sources
The Excel spreadsheet contains all the input data used by the Vensim model, including
all data references and a complete data audit trail.
Cogent has a history of working with the major operators and other interested skills
bodies in the nuclear industry over a decade. Both raw data and industry insight has
been provided by the Human Resources departments of the site operators, new site
developers and the Construction and Engineering Construction Industry Training
Boards (CITB and ECITB). The use of the data and the results and conclusions are
reviewed by the NSSG which includes senior Human Resources staff from across the
industry.
4 Using the model and emerging results
Early use of the model has been to adjust input stocks and flows to achieve a supply
profile that matches demand as closely as possible. In general, more than one
combination of apprenticeship and industry mover stocks will be available, although
timing considerations often constrain the range of options. Where there is latitude,
altemative balances in the supply pathways represent policy options. For example,
government focus on apprentice programmes, with a strong financial driver through the
apprenticeship levy, may encourage plans based on maximizing the apprentice
workforce stock offset by decreases elsewhere.
Initial results have emphasized the crucial role played by the phasing contribution
introduced by the delays arising from classroom and practical training. Long lead-time
4 The extent to which the workforce work full or part time.
March 2017
35" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, J uly 2017
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S, Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
routes are limited not only in the short term, but also later when more responsive
sources (experienced personal from analogous industries or reskilling from within the
industry, for example) are already in position. The result is a sensitive trade-off between
the rate of change of demand, supply phasing and pipeline attrition rates.
An example of supply side fitting, based on test data, is shown in figure 5 below. Each
line of charts shows in turn: the effect of a new cohort of apprentices; the effect of an
intake of experienced workers from analogous industries; and finally the two supply
routes combined. The demand (stepped) and supply curves appear in the right hand
column, while the dotted curve in the top right chart shows the projection of the current
workforce with natural attrition.
In the first row, the long lead time to train apprentices means that the increased supply
only appears after the demand curve has further diverged from the projection of the
existing workforce.
In the second row experienced workers make a more rapid impact on supply but, in this
case, the supply is allowed to decay before reaching the peak in demand.
In the third row the two supply routes are combined to produce a supply curve that
forms a reasonable fit to demand.
This is a possible, but not unique, scenario for illustration based on a limited set of input
data. Nevertheless it does show some of the considerations in analysing the supply.
March 2017
The 35" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, J uly 2017
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S, Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
Apprentice Stock Post apprertiethip Taining Stock Demand and Supply (Apprentice Supply)
200 1600
40 1400
a 1200
1000
veo <0 600
400
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—ttecrical an nctrmerttion Trainees, —Contel yer Taness z
Sector Movers Awaiting Clearance Steck Sector Movers Industry Training Stock Demand and Supply (Industry Movers)
250 400 1800
300 1400
330 250 1200
100 :
150 200
° 300 600
% 30 400
2016 2018-200 «022-024-2026. 202099: 2H2_—2034
° 20%
so 2016 2018-2020 2022-2024 2025 «202820302082 20m 2016 2918 2020-2022 2014 -2026-:« 2028-2080: 20
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‘Demand and Supply (Industry Movers and Apprentices)
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400
350
250
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200 1000
400 150 800
100 600
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—roprenncesns ind Clearances Tora neste tating —vortoree mana —Sugply sine bet apprentces analingus movers
Figure 5: Sample illustrative results
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Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S,
Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
5 Conclusions and Next Steps
The structure of the model has been designed, implemented and tested. Work is now
underway to introduce properly representative data to fully exploit its capabilities and
streamline the optimization processes.
The benefits of using the System Dynamics approach for modelling the future supply of
the nuclear sector workforce have included:
The process of developing a model in collaboration with stakeholders from the
workforce helped all parties to understand the complex nature of the nuclear
workforce system, and identify the key variables that influence it.
The visual representation of the model structure using Stock and Flow diagrams
made it easier to share and explain to people.
The formalised approach to model development described in Section 3.2 and the
associated documentation, such as the model test specification, built confidence in
the model.
Validation of the SD model was made easier as the model links were explicit within
the stock and flow diagrams. This is a clear advantage over Excel where the links
between variables can often be opaque.
It was much easier to interrogate the models at a variable level, which aided
debugging and carrying out model behavior analysis.
The analytical tools within the Vensim environment made it easier to explore the
dynamics associate with all the model variables.
Finally, there is scope for the following improvements to be made to the model: :
e
Improved policy development interface.
Sub-sector representation (for example an explicit defence sub-sector of the overall
UK nuclear sector).
Using Monte Carlo capabilities to make an assessment of the uncertainty associated
with the projections.
6 Abbreviations
CLD
DAS
FTE
HLRC
LMI
NDA
NSSG
Causal Loop Diagram
Decision Analysis Service Ltd
Full Time Equivalents
High Level Resource Codes
Labour Market Intelligence
Nuclear Decommissioning A uthority
Nuclear Skills Strategy Group
NWSSM Nuclear Workforce Supply Side Model
The 35" Intemational Conference of the System Dynamics Society, J uly 2017
Assessing the future workforce supply for the UK Nuclear sector
Cave S, Bennett SL, Pleasant RS and Woodham E
SD System Dynamics
SFD Stock and Flow diagram
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