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This study demonstrates how system dynamics can be used a insi i m m ‘ I Y y : K \
> na S an insightful strategic planning tool to hel i i (
: n be : : g ‘0 help manage the inc wi W el ——
and follow-up patients for an outpatient clinic. Effective interventions are developed in the context of constrained any (e goad Really pie 7 ee coe a T <3
d 9. y (€.g. workforce), HEALTH .
Pp patients
Should we see more new —
patients or follow-up How to
existing patients? intervene?
itpatient service, to”
ts. sie 7
er information about the processes. Se
iables for intervention included: building a new clinic, increasing staff, and
sing clinic re-visits.
dicators were set to enable the validation and evaluation of the proposed new follow-up re : an a e le -
‘tions. 2013 to January 2015. It hence provides the additional data to validate the
‘as used to develop the simulation model. model's forecasting results. The model takes random values from each
= values between the 25th to 75th quintiles of historical records has _variable. All the scenarios have been simulated 1000 times to generate a
= “se the ‘best match’ to the historical trend. mean result. The figure below summarises all the mean projections and
historical records of the waiting list. r
> Given the recommended interventions, the model
generates an accurate prediction of outcomes.
ves
Validation
300
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ae 29 Ty = 1.0268x :
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51 a health conditions, over nine years
requirl Be} S : P
tthe 5 ‘$100 | to 9 (2013), were used to verify the
er ix ae | model. The surveys on teen health o
~— : | conducted by the Korea Centers
Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 | “ i ae :
—Actual Data Post Intervent Soma : a Control and Prevention, Mini
Actual Data ctual Data Post Intervention a SA Abo fea on se oi -
—Reducing Follow-up of Existing Patients Mean of Simluated Data Welfare and Ministry Edt +
Technology. It is an anonymous
—No Interventions
New Clinic Only
Combined Both Interventions
and iThink model from the conference website, or email keming.wang@cmdhb.org.nz
«
ae
online survey on middle schoc
pili. students to identify health condition
areas including obesity, eating habits and |
activities of Korean teenagers. The
obesity modeling for this study is male and
teenagers from 13 to 19 years old, and ft
number of subjects from the 1 to 9% surve
664,343. This study set the six factors tha
adolescent obesity as usable variables fr
data from Korea youth risk behavior wel
survey Soft drink intake frequency , fas
intake frequency, ramen intake frequency a
food intake frequency during the last seve
were included as eating habit factors.
You can downloand the full paper
and various
42 y, j on
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: enon developing diabere® \ et a
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scion tar doe ist y — oo y, os
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predabetes iy | fi Sel acac f
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; introduction <r higher than the normal oe | ee a ;
oie xc blood glucose levels ate tion (CDCI. \ [wot eS oral / y
cial eantinn in Which OME e- Tyicease Control Prevent \ | aoe plate |= a
preganees sa medica «of diabetes (centers for Disease cao RB NAN \ | — x, os
enough ora dings of « mes greater in individuals Wt I \ ——>| * ss a
range, bust igh woe is Sto 15 times gre 3008). 1n ‘ tee yv snus _ | Progression 1
“oe pobuiy ofthe progression aiatees 1. 2011; Rasmussen et al., 2009). ee FER Fankofdubetes a oo
mA geet an J lucas levels (Heianza et * , ‘ 5 eae
golaiees han ne a people with diabetes. : — Sock Di
ser ain res te so takes ie, 203) defined as the patient Stock Flow Diagram
ee ae diagnosed by a doctor— yet due to a lack of research
ng wwe oi piabetes of 0 Bc wer Saas
soe aE of prediabetes” 1s : |
tush sty, we aed wo eximate the awareness of pregiabetes and to develop and evaluate a model
predicting the elect of education on people with prediabetes
Whatia al prediabetes? Estimated population of 2
Medica peiiscth prices tee ten soa in South Korea
sbotinese fr aes ae efit eps in ey rs i - @ € : ‘a
Ssppering them i making healthy lifestyle changes. Unlike 1,051,693 : : : ;
People with Gabetes, however, itis difficult for those with on 10952
edicts even be aware that they have the condition, :
Srey weston taifestaton. For this reason, only about
"siete wih predaees were ware that they ba : : : ea = x
Webern ibe 2005-2006 period (Geiss etal 2010) 28 Orr70 a
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Rays “ Tpple effect of :
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sult of simutati
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ion Raising Tate of Awareness by 109, Scenario 2:
Prey; %o Y z
Tevalence of diabetes The result of sitauiat es
eee: Raising rate of e
Prevalen “ation .
ce of diabetes Participatig
n
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population
Conclusion
, iSINns
ated that a policy ol ra
, . . Ss.
diabetes by 5.8% in AO time ste]
ith the cl
It 1S estim
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vance to make lol
individuals W
and exXal
° i . steac . 4 » L
cue Resilience, conflict j ' diabetes. Thus, further stuc
Resolution : as prediabetes. Second, with an intery ent!
Learning and Candor improves fi with prediabetes, the model estimated |
raising
People’s productivity,
Introduction
Prediabetes is
eles 1s a medical condition in
range |
ige, but not high enough fi
‘ £ 2 Ol
2014). The prob
Prediabetes th:
g
outh Korea. 9
ae > ONOing
| “orts must be ;
Dei
CIN aware
a diagny
al ~
iN in those
hose y ith horma|]
< {)
Project
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A Predictive
blie of
Young Min Noh
College of Nursino ¢
ge of Nursing Science, Kyung Hee [
hang Hoon Kim Eun Kyoun y
f un
ro Dongdaen
Congdone- ,
3U, Seoul, Kore : ott
Niversity.
Majang
26 | I
<© Nyungheedae
dong, S
Methods
pf raising the aw areness of prediabetes woul
(
teps, Suggesting that e:
usal Loop Dig
ld reduce the Incidence of
prediabetes May provide at-risk
‘at could prevent future Progression to
are needed to detect
antervention Policy on diabetes preventic
fstimated that those
‘gram
arly identification of
P make long-term lifestyle changes th
and examina
nations and support People with
on education that targ
ets people
with prediabetes could
‘
avoid developing diabetes,
- M ‘
giea! condition in which one’s blood glucose levels are higher than the normal
eeenough for a diagnosis of di
2 ry
abetes (Centers for Disease C ontrol Prevention [CDC],
ibab lity
n i
of the progression to diabetes is 5 to 15 times greater in individuals with
. .
se with normal glucose levels (Heianza et al., 201 1; Rasmussen et al., 2008). In
ects have focused only on people with diabetes Se
promote awareness of prediabetes (Li et al., 2013), —defined as the patient
c betes or of having been diagnosed by a doctor— yet due to a lack of research Stock Flow Diagram
+. even the term “awareness of prediabetes” is unfamiliar.
\ te the awareness of prediabetes and to develop and evaluate a model
people with prediabetes
6 Estimated population of
prediabetes in South Korea | ,
| instructing them
. . e the first steps in :
‘ yle changes. Unlike Si
ult for those with ia |
ve the condition, a
1is reason, only about
Las]
> that they had e
Geiss et al., 2010).
ow
i F the scenarios
f ;: Simulation of the scena
t related to the awareness 0 Results: A. ao a
F self-management rele
ive effect of self-manageme
entive effect 0:
result of simulation2: Ra
analyze the ripple effect of
The
| ane eness by 10%
| ee : » rate of awarene
— A It of simulationt: Raising
edia reness of the diagnosis ena ion
atient’s aware
he patient ‘sa
Jition |
r= nis stent J ry he Health? r
| sas mpc yao 1
' + for diabetes preven .
a manag
riasaptp for diabet
— olf-manss ne —
al sement in self aid
So saath rent in sell-out ‘
ion from ppw Ve digit sie
Brows
from Pte D_ bess
ing which minute did the Q3: During which minute were the
People enter the store? Most people in the store?
ing which minute did the Qa: During which minute were the
People leave the store? fewest People in the store
People/Minute
Minutes
From the organism’s perspective:
Future Research
er nany dialogue:
for sharing the slide on Human Living.
Seggegagemcerenrsmaisms tee errs
a
Assistant Pry
Purpose
The Purpose of this
Fig i i
| gure 4 is the Teinforcing Joo of *
= | behavioral intentions : :
Paper is to develop a canc. ibe e | :
Phe pap ot Diet ia: fa Obesogenic behayj Hort intention _,
| Rea or adolescent Obesity based On the systems ha ae phe e von a
me ore : Ac: Plains the Weight increase due 10 enyi
: factors, [f the or
Methods 3
Establish a conceptu
al framework
that determine
and review fact
adolescent obesity,
and overseas
through domestic
Yessor, College AS Nursing Sei Ne and f University,
ASt- We; ur
Mt Nu vareh Institute,
Seoul, Korea
Sing Rese
Hee University Seoul, Korea
aware of being :
N to lose Weight.
Ors
Figure 2. ¢ ‘ore loop Structure
earl Identify eee ic een : Weight increase due to the absence of awareness f :
causalities that determine adolescent Obesity and The second structure of the core loop structure is g
analyze them within system confirmed jin — Teinforcing loop (R1) which 1 f
preceding studies. The
Vensim DSS 5.0 progr.
am was > obesogenic behavior weight gap” that
used for the development of causal loop models. leads to weight increase (f igure 2). If adolescents are not
aware that they are obese ey €n when there is a difference |
Resale between the ideal weight and the actual weight, then
obesogenic behavior will persist. This is a structure that
The core loop structure of adolescent obesity is as shown show ie Nisdeied Sap cue fo an insrease an Meza p
in below. It consists of six variables: gap, behavioral ea
Intention, effort for weight control, behavior for weight :
control, obesogenic behaviors
loop structure is made up of one neg
Positive loops.
Figure 1. Core loop structure
: Weight control
The first structure that forms the causal loop diagram of
adolescent obesity is an ideal feedback loop, which
maintains the direction of “gap > behavioral intention >
effort for weight control > behavior for weight oy ie ia
weight — gap” (B1)(Figure 1). If there is gees:
between ideal weight and actual weight, a poner
would become aware of being obese. This vil ae
their intention to manage obesity, and lead te ii
efforts in weight control. Accordingly, the ep ig a
which the weight decreases owing to es a ae
actions targeting weight loss, becomes the core
control.
sity, syste inking
Key words: adolescent, obesity, system thi g
and weight. The basic core ‘
gative loop and three
: naintains the direction of
“gap
Figure 5. Full generation map
. with four extended factor
= Figure 5 shows how core loop struct
included in the four important socio.
factors. This is to identify the overall f
adolescent obesity system model and the
variables,
Figure 3. Core loop structure :
Weight increase due to the lack of willpower
Figure 3 shows a reinforcing loop (R2) of “gap > :
behavioral intentions — obesogenic behavior > Increase in py ona:
weight — gap.” Even if adolescents are aware that Sueaaticnst intenti
they are obese, a loop with a different structure is Xi
formed when they lack behav ioral intention.
Obesogenic behavior per: A adolescents lack
behavioral intention, and this will lead to an
increase in weight and a widened gap. Bea
intention is influenced by attitude, subjective norms
and perceived behavioral control.
Through this study, it
factors related to ado
Y connected, and_ that
environments. The ng
¥ effective policy for t
a of adolescent obesi
2 diagram and conduq
causal loop diagram 0
i e loop structure :
‘igure 4. Core ; :
i te ease due to environmental factors
Weight increas
Research
This study was supported by tbe National Resear
From Past Events to Future Plans
Anne LaVigne and Lees Stuntz
Creative Learning Exchange
present... es
Behind Closed Gates: Potential Dynamics Wh
: en One Indivi
or Group Is Given Complete Authority Over Another idual
A story of rediscovery and new adventures yet to come
Local Area Physi
Michael Dill, M.
1Association of American Medical
INTRODUCTION LESSONS LEARNED
3
* We gained a new appreciation for the significance of * Weare ct,
s ception in health care access. Health care needs to rej
are needed to adress the adequacy agnor oe create i — be — than accessible: it needs to be perceived as
of the nation's physician workforce the question of how the physician workforce an
to meet its health needs. Past be configured to best meet a local population's accessible. ;
dels merely projected forward health needs. * We have come to rely on one activity in particular - : io
~ * Our goal is to create a model-based tool to identifying stakeholders’ hopes and fears for their :
support policy making for physician workforce. communities and our project - as a key reference in
* Past physician workforce projections were based Prioritizing project work: How well are we building
on linear models? which could not be applied at toward our partners’ hopes? What are we doing to
local area level. ameliorate their fears?
* Weare using a group model building process to * We have struggled with data th hout this process,
build the model, verify data, test assumptions, from having to rely on data points increasingly
pcg Of policy levers most important to removed from the local area context (our “fall back
Positions”), to the complexity, absence, and
METHODS and PROCESS incompleteness of real world data. Our scripts have
helped us focus on which data we need to improve,
| itself include: the
3 item
nung tools + We are in the early stages of a long-term sys
Population of Clevelai
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yrypattt yitty
y
rabitue
ph yet
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Bathtub Paradox
A Fresh Explanation Based on Systems with Life
Human
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explain sensation
(experiences)
For we humans, our ‘body being’ is
structurally coupled to the environment,
while our ‘mind-being’ is symbolically
coupled to other similar ‘mind-beings’ in
our environment, and together we ensure
Our organization for life.
ilure uSINg
laining SF Failure 2
a missing middle Hypothesis
ner
n, medi and (ne per*
idennitication of the organist
The graph below shows the number of people entering and
leaving a department store over a 30-minute period.
é
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Waters Foundation
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big picture
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systems change over time,
Makes meaningful
connections within and
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generating patterns and trends
Recognizes that a system's
structure generates . behavior
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Surfaces and tests
assumptions
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Considers an issue fully and
resists the urge to come to a
quick conclusion
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long-term and unintended
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Background history
2012: Learning
Economics with
Dynamic Modeling
("LEDM")
mt Lounonics with Dynamic Modcling
CTR}
ar system dynamics (S12) modcling as an
educational amd research tool in the economics
arricuium at Nal AMA
2008: Memorandum
of Understanding:
UIB & NaUKMA,
Professor Lukianenko’s
visit to Bergen
Strategy:
2001: MacroLab development began
(a system dynamics mode! of the
US economy used for teaching
macroeconomics)
Changing Systems:§ “gee @—§ BROW N
g
Using Systems Thinking Tools * SCHOOL
to Create Social Change
This 4 Cay Student ied VV
movement with qe ¢< Nan e
iSSUeES in their Commer ty Stucde nts uv
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Questions? Want to get involved? Email m odenthal@wust
l.edu or dschwartz@.
‘dplus.org
Social System Design Lab
Sethe
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GEORGE WARREN BROWN
ECHOOL OF SOCIAL WORK
Transforming Race 2015: How System Dynamics is Helping
to Shape the Response to Ferguson, MO
Megan Odenthal, Nancy Zoellner, Saras Chung, David
Habif, Jill Kuhlberg, and Peter Hovmand
This work was partially supported by the Brown School Fer
ace : guson Fund in collabora
School District, Jennings School District, and EducationPlus tlon with Ritence
# Washington University in St.Louis P) encall
From Teaching System Dynan ;
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Delft University of Technology,
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Hakan Yasarcan
This research is supported by a Marie Curie International Re ¢ntegration Grant within the 7th European
Community Framework Programme (grant agreement number: PIRGO?. GA-2010-268272) and also by
Bogazici University Research Fund (grant no: 6924 13A03P1)
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Information Design and Presentation Cre SO
4 Strategies and Performance
By: Benjamin Batinge
The System Dynamics Group, University of Bergen
RESULTS
METHODOLOGY
@ A model (with modifications) on the Boom
and Bust, and failure to learn in
experimental markets experiment by Paich
and Sterman (1994) was developed for the
experiment.
@ A two-treatment approach where the same
information but different design interfaces
for treatment 1 and treatment 2 was
provided to subjects in treatments 1 and 2
respectively in order to determine whether
there will be significantly different
performance levels in the two treatments.
INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND
presentation in a
Millions
i
a
@ Information design and
Management flight simulator Is relevant to
people interacting with it to grasp the
complexities in the underlying model.
@ The purpose of this study therefore is to
determine whether or not information
design and display affects decision-making
process, strategies, and ultimately result in
better outcome.
@ This study examines the effects of
information design and presentation on
people’s decision-making strategies and
performance in a complex non-repetitive
decision-making environment.
@ study uses a boom and bust model for the
experiment as it exemplifies a dynamic
decision making scenario.
Table 2: Independent Samples Test
Levene's Test for
Equality of Variances
Sig.
The total profit Equal
profit Equal variqiie ame | 6613 023. |-3.451|13 |.004
accumulated at
the end of the Equal variances not
simulation assumed -3.598 | 10.7 | .004
HYPOTHESIS
HO: “Distinction in information design and
presentation/display does not have an effect on
decision-making strategies and performance”
H1: “Distinction in information design and
presentation/display affects decision-making
strategies and performance” is supported by
the
results.
H2: An improvement in information design and
presentation/display helps decision-makers to
understand the system complexi
plexity and
better. ; a
period
CONCLUSIONS
@The study concludes that, the way information
is designed has an effect on the decision
strategies and performance.
@in order to reduce the decision-making
challenges in complex dynamic environment,
and adopt near-optimal strategies for
maximum performance, the information
organization, design, and display/presentation
is very essential for logical decision strategies
and increased performance.
@The null hypothesis (HO) is rejected and whiles
H1 & H2 are supported by the findings.
REFERENCES
information ae Ss. L, 1989. The Effect of Task Demands and Graphical Format
Mae m a . Science, Vol. 35, No. 3, 285-303.
, D. N., ade, D. A. 1993. inf i
Processes. Psychological Science, Vol. 4, No. 4, 221-227 a
Paich, M., & Sterman, J. § bust, :
experimental markets. Monapemact soe oe / y No. ia aa ee ‘a
Speier, C., Vessey, 1, & Valacich, J The Ef .
Complexity, and Information Presentationa p
Performance. Decision Sciences, V34, N4,77*
Sterman, J., 1989. Modeli :
Feedback in a Dynamic Decision a
3, 321-339. ys rent
5
on |
g of Accumulations:
shop for Students
and Alan Ticotsky
Student Understandin
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Pre-College
An Experimen
‘How Smart ¢
Pre and post-
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it s given in text, pictor ial, O
the phenomenon wa
Subjects: 18 students ages 14 to 17
system dynamics modeling were the pr!
Results: Students have
from graphical descriptions.
pattern matching, so another experimen
Pre and Post-Assessments
Sample Questions
4, Consider stock full of money that has an inflow (money/day) and an
outflow (money/day)) The outflow is always the same amount and the
inflow starts at the same amount as the outflow but decreases over time
The inflow and the outflow are related to each other as shown in the
graph at the right. Please indicate what must be happening to the
amount of money in the stock over time
2. The money in the stock is increasing. _
b. The money in the stock is decreasing. ;
¢. The money in the stock is staying the same.
4 {ison possible to tell from the information given.
Outflow
oo
Money in the Stock
us
2 Cruse the tank at the right that has a faucet inflow and faucet outflow. A
Fare tation depicted atthe right describe the water level in the tank. UD,
2 The water level in the tank will go up. | \\{{
b The water level in the tank will go down. oh
t. The water evein the tank wil stay the same, |
¢ Isnt possible to tel from the information given. =
Pre-Assessment (n=18)
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16 (89%)
; 15 (83%)
16 (89%)
ecount 1 (6%)
>In atmosphere 12 (67%)
Assessmm ‘
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sae nt (n=16)
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Authors: Diana
é :
assessment of students
r graphical form
years who participated in a WPI Sust
mary tools used to study environmental issues
4 reasonably robust intuitive abilit
It is possible that the week’s course m te
t will be conducted in 2015 to determine the cause of the difference.
Fisher, Christopher DiCarlo, Rob Quaden
ability to determine simple dynam!
ainability Workshop in the summer 0
y to determine simple dynamic behavior from text and pictorial descriptions but not
ade a significant difference in interpreting graphs, but the post-test contained
WPI 5-Day Workshop Lessons
Day 1 (Linear and Exponential Change over Time)
* Pre-assessment administered
* Friendship Game*: Students walk into a large stock/flow diagram « ering a
to rules for entering the stock. Students built STELLA model.
* Mammoth (population) Game: Students played the game and built mod
Day 2 (Feedback and Causal Loop Diagramming; STELLA Interface
Layer)
* Introduction of the design of a graphical function and a demonstration of the use of a
graphical function to incorporate the idea of carrying capacity into the Mammoth
population model.
Connection Game*: Connection Circles were used to identify feedback loops from The
Lorax by Dr. Seuss.
Students built a model to depict the population dynamics on Easter Island.
Day 3 (FishBanks:The Tragedy of the Commons):
* FishBanks was played and students discussed regulating the fishing industry.
Students designed a paper/pencil model for the game and created policy
recommendations to prevent the crash of the fishery.
Students prese i : I I
ts presented their recommendations using the actual FishBanks stock/flow
model to back up their recommendations.
Day 4 (Aging Chains and Delays)
* Tree Game*: Students simulate pl
anting and harvesting trees in a forest, according to
cortaiaieal as g é g s in a forest, according
Students pou i i iff
a ee aan ae Containers of different shapes, record and graph the number of
canmeen ” Over time to fill the container. Students posted the 'sand' graphs
ae ts ed to figure out which container each graph matched.
en built the Tree Game model, which contained
concept of delays was introduced
Day 5 (Climate Change and Temperature)
* It's Cool*: Students t
; ook temperatu j ee :
Over ame Ghd tie oe ce oure readings of a hot liquid. asiit copied
an aging chain. Finally, the
ce behavior of phenomenon when the rate of change of
f 2014, where systems thinking and
Bandung Ci
Lidia Mayangsari’’, 1o««
Background
World population increases by Be |
anually and more than half popul
areas. Huge urbanization Cause Vv‘
concerns, and problems from bot!
deteriorating infrastructure condi
social segregation (Nam & Pardo
Smart city enables improvement ¢
(QoL) through services and local \
2005).
However, there are limited numbe
research have concerned the dy!
city phenomenon (Chourabi+ 201
Objectives
+ To study the general conditions
+ To explain the influence of smar
+ To identify and estimate the diffe
before and after the implement
+ To identify the policy that affect
Methods aaa
+ Identify appropriate variables in'
model that also emphasizes the
+ Build default urban dynamics m«
Bandung City, accounting those
+ Define smart city intervention.
+ Simulate the dynamics of the cit
perspective.
QoL Variables
Important QoL variables to consid
published works starting from Smitt
ISO no. 37120:2014 about Sustaina
communities - indicators for city se
Public Transport : a
Recreation |
Living Atmosphere; i 2 ist a
Public Safety : Ute Ggenma
--..__Housing Access; Mil ill 8 ae
Political Involvement | oom
Education Quality | 2) we
Education Provision | <a val a be ce a
2 ae: Health Care| TTT rrr
Smart City Interve
Following
seas caus sents, fey
mart are, Governme
2009. We have ¢
Dynamics Guild
es and continue
seach
ipa:
Exceptional service i the national interest National
Breadth of Applications
Planning and international
agement
dleic Ss and
gyceptional
service tt the natl
nal interest We.
Exceptional
sere
in the
tutional
Society
Wehave been 8 long
time sponsor
conference and hosted the
2009
\We have an
ynamics Guild at
5 and continue t0
pide “exceptional service in
thenational interest”
Qut Participation
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