Modeling and Analysis of Population Dynamics in India
K. Vizayakumar
Associate Professor
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management
Indian Institute of Technology
KHARAGPUR 721 302.
vizay @hijli.iitkgp.ernet.in
Fax.: 091 3222 55303. Ph.: 091 3222 77693.
India is a country with vast land and natural resources, the large part of which are still
unexplored. More so, its consumption levels are very low, less than one-tenth compared
to USA. It makes India more stable and can sustain a large population. However, the
current scenario shows that more than 70% of the Indian population are poor and among
them, 40% are very poor. This leads to the fact that there exists improper utilization of
resources and improper distribution of wealth.
It is also felt that limiting the population may also add to better living, to better
conservation of resources, and to better future. In this context, it is necessary to
understand the dynamic nature of the population growth in India. Government of India,
in every five-year plan, has been setting the goals regarding limiting the population
growth rate but could not achieve so far. Trend in the society show that as the economic
level of family increases, the family adopts to family planning, i.e., restricting the number
of children to not more than two. These families, called in India middle class, do not
require any external pressure or campaign in this regard. Another factor that contributes
to the adoption of family planning is the education level, particularly in women.
Whereas, it is also observed that the people having more affinity toward the religious
faiths/social
customs do not adopt to family planning. The family income decides the education level
among women as well as the affordability of medical facilities. These, in turn, affect the
behaviour of the people towards the family planning.
This paper makes an attempt to capture these interrelationships among several variables
that determine the net growth rate of the population. These relationships are modeled and
analyzed using system dynamics methodology in order to know the dominant factors that
cause the people to adopt to family planning and also to identify appropriate policy
measures. The policies such as "increasing the literacy rate among women to 60%",
"increasing the women employment to 30%", “increasing the ratio of minimum salary to
the maximum salary to 25%" are considered for analysis. The analysis reveals that the
increase in income level to a comfortable level (ratio of minimum to maximum as 25%)
is the dominant policy that can reduce the growth of the population. If the people are
uplifted to this level, expenditure on promotion and propagation of family planning can
be greatly reduced.
