System
Dynamics
Society
Edited by:
Michael Kennedy
Graham W. Winch
Robin S. Langer
Jennifer I. Rowe
Joan M. Yanni
Conference jproceedings sponsored by:
VENTANA
SysteMS, inc
http://www.vensim.com
Proceedings of the
22™ Intemational Conference
July 25 — 29, 2004
Oxford, England, UK
Conference Host
HVR Consulting Services Ltd.
Conference Partner:
Powersim Software AS,
The Business Simulation Company
~ WILEY
http://www.wiley.com
Table of Contents
Welcome from the Conference Organizing Committee
Organizing
Committee
Host and Partner
Volunteers
Submission
Reviewers
Navigating the Conference Proceedings
Reading Supporting Material
Sessions, and Workshops
Abstracts: Papers, Special and Convened
Alphabetical by First Author
Addenda)
Index of Authors
There are no links to papers
from the Author Index
Sponsors and Exhibitors
Acknowledgement of Sponsors
SD Career Link
Boston 2005 Conference Announcement
Navigating the Conference Proceedings
For portability and ease of use, the System Dynamics Conference Proceedings CD-ROM
was made using the latest version available of Adobe® Acrobat®. You can view the
Portable Document Format (PDF) files using Adobe Reader®. For a free download go to:
http://www.adobe.com/acrobat/
For optimum viewing, please download the most recent version of Adobe Reader® .
These instructions show you how to:
e Use Acrobat’s basic tools to explore the Proceedings
e Navigate the Proceedings using bookmarks and links
e Search for authors, abstracts, and papers
If you are familiar with Adobe Reader®, you will recognize the common navigational
features, including bookmarks, links, and menu icons. If you are unfamiliar with Adobe®
Reader®, you may want to print this page for reference. (For information about printing, see
the “Printing” section below.) Search the “Help” file for additional instructions on all topics.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Information contained in any full paper file supersedes any
information in the abstract section of these proceedings. Title, author information
and the abstract may have been updated in the final paper.
Using general tools
Page tool
The built-in Page Tool (Figure 1) allows easy navigation within multi-page PDF
documents.
Go back one page Go forward one page
lq 4 rl
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Figure 1. The built-in Page Tool lets you move
between and across pages.
Browsing
The built-in Browser Arrows (Figure 2) allow you to move through Adobe Reader®
in much the same way that an Internet browser allows you to surf the web:
e The back arrow returns you to the page you visited last
e The forward arrow reverses the action of the back arrow
je >
Return to the page Move forward (works
you just visited only if you’ve used
the back button)
Figure 2. The Browsing Arrows give you greater
flexibility to explore the Proceedings.
Printing
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e Use the Print icon & on the Adobe Reader® tool bar, or:
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Links, buttons, and icons
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particular paper. Any text or image surrounded by a blue rectangle is a link
(Figure 3):
All links are surrounded by a blue rectangle.
Figure 3. A sample link
Buttons allow you to move quickly between the abstracts and individual papers.
The “Go Back” button (Figure 4) returns you from a paper to its abstract.
The “Table of Contents” button (Figure 5) returns you from a paper to the Table
of Contents.
Go Back Table of Contents
Figure 4. The Go Back button Figure 5. The Table of Contents
takes you from a paper button returns you to
to its abstract. the table of contents.
Using bookmarks
Bookmarks, which appear in the left pane of Adobe Reader® (Figure 6), display
the main sections of the Proceedings document. Clicking on a bookmark will take
you to the specified page of the Proceedings.
i @& Bookmark +
Table of Contents =
&~{|] Navigating the Conference Proc
(Accessing Supporting Material
L] Welcome
&-{] Acknowledgments
{'] Submission Reviewers
{"] Acknowledgment of Sponso
{'] Sponsors and Exhibitors
{"] Sponsor Advertisements
(Abstracts
(-) Author Index
natures { Comments { Thumbnails { Bookmarks \
Figure 6. A sample Bookmarks pane
Finding abstracts
You can locate abstracts in two ways:
1. Locate the author’s name in the Author Index
a. Click the “Author Index” link in the Bookmarks panel.
b. Find the author’s name in the Author Index.
c. Go to the page number indicated after the author’s name. (See “Help” if needed)
Note: Authors may be involved in more than one paper or presentation,
which is indicated by multiple page numbers in the index.
2. Use the Acrobat “Search” function
a. Click the Search icon a
b. Enter the appropriate title, author name, phrase, or keyword in the
appropriate input box. Note: Do not include articles (a, an, the) in the search.
c. Click the Search button. Click on each item in the search “Results”
to go to that item in the document.
d. Click on each item in the search “Results” to view that item in the
current document.
Finding papers
You can locate papers in two ways:
1. Link from an abstract
e A blue rectangle will surround the title of any abstract with an associated
paper. Click inside the rectangle to access the paper.
e Some abstracts do not have an associated paper.
2. Use the Acrobat “Search” function:
a. Click the Search icon a)
b. Enter the appropriate title, author name, phrase, or keyword in the
appropriate input box. Note: Do not include articles (a, an, the) in the search.
ce. Click the Search button. The title of any documents that include your
search criteria will appear in the search “Results” dialog box.
d. Click on each item in the search “Results” to view that item in the
current document.
e. Link on any abstract found to access the paper you want to view.
Returning to abstracts or beginning of Proceedings
After accessing a paper from its abstract, click “Go Back” to return to the abstract or
click on “Table of Contents” to return to the beginning of the proceedings.
SPECIAL NOTE: Depending on the version of Adobe Acrobat® or Adobe Reader®
you are using, the following message may appear.
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were not executed. To execute all actions, move the action that closes the
document to the end.”
To stop this message from appearing after every instance of using the “Go Back” button,
you must reset one of your viewing preferences.
In Adobe Reader® Version 6.0 Go to: Edit | Preferences | General - Miscellaneous
disable (unclick) the Option: “Open cross-documents in the same window”
In other versions of Adobe Reader® you need to search for this option somewhere in
General Preference Options.
Choosing this option will enable you to have several documents open at once, and will
disable the message from appearing over and over.
Accessing Supporting Material
See next section “Reading Supporting Material”
Reading Supporting Material
> Identifying Supporting Material:
In the Abstracts Section and at the beginning of some papers, © indicates there is Supporting
Material for that work. There is also a list of papers, alphabetically by first author, with the associated
Supporting Material file names, at the end of these instructions.
> Finding the Supporting Material Folder:
1. Using the list on the following pages, identify the supporting material file(s) that you would
like to access
2. Explore the System Dynamics Proceedings CD-ROM using the utility appropriate for your
computer (Windows Explore for Windows, Finder for Mac)
3. Once you have opened the CD-ROM, open the folder named “SUP_MAT”
4. In the “SUP_MAT” folder, locate the Supporting Material file that you identified in step 1
5. Double-click to open or launch the file. You may need to download software to open some files.
Websites where you can download the necessary software are listed below.
> Viewing/O pening/Reading the Supporting Material:
Some of these files are regular texts or presentations that are in widely accessible formats such as
.doc, .ppt, .pdf, etc., but others are model files, which need to be viewed using the appropriate system
dynamics modeling software. Freeware, demo or trial versions are available from several system
dynamics software manufacturers. Follow the links within the descriptions below to the software
needed to view the files.
In following chart, find the three-letter extension of the file name, then the software you need to view
the file.
File Name Extension | Software Needed
.itm, .stm ithink, STELLA*
Sip Powersim Studio
sim Powersim
-vmf, .mdl Vensim
*ithink and STELLA can each be used to open both .itm and .stm files.
STELLA/ithink by isce systems:
http://www. iseesystems.com/(wzasn3554osf4qrh2mg1vx55)/index.aspx
This link will take you to STELLA and ithink Demo Kits. Each kit includes a free save-disabled
version of the respective software which you may use to run STELLA and ithink models. The kits
also contain many additional models that you may find interesting, as well as several Flash-based
tutorials that will walk you through how to use the software.
Powersim Studio by Powersim Solutions:
http://www.powersimsolutions.com/sdconference2004/sdconference.asp
224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Reading Supporting Material continued
Powersim Studio Express is a 60-day trial version of Powersim Studio 2003. Note that this installation
will automatically replace any previous version of Studio 2000 or 2001 that is installed on the PC.
Studio 2003 can open Studio 2001 files, but Studio 2001 cannot open a file that has been updated or
created in Studio 2003. Integrated risk assessment, model hierarchy and improved connectivity
towards external data sources are among the new features available in this release.
Vensim by Ventana Systems:
http://www.vensim.com/reader.html
The Vensim Model Reader is free software which allows you to publish models constructed with
Vensim and distribute them to other people. Your model and the Vensim model reader can be copied
and passed to as many people as you want, giving people access to your model without their needing
to purchase Vensim.
> Papers and the Associated Supporting Material, alphabetically by first author.
Supporting Materials
Author Name and Paper Title and Web Links
Adamides, Emmanuel, “Embedding Game-Theoretic Concepts 297 pdf
into System Dynamics Models: The Case of
Complementary Products Development”
Akkermans, Henk, “Time for a Hundred Visions and 258.pdf
Revisions: A System Dynamics Study of the Impact
of Concurrent Engineering on Supply Chain
Performance”
Akkermans, Henk, “Time Will Tell: The Impact of Demand 259.pdf
Cyclicality and Supply Lead Times on Customer
Order Information Sharing in Supply Chains”
Albrechtsen, Lise, “Making Bushmeat Hunting Sustainable: 404.sim
Economic Incentives or Draconian Measures?”
Altamirano, Monica, “A System Dynamics Model of Primary 122.itm
and Secondary Education in Nicaragua”
Arenas, Fernando, “Access to Credit as a Limit to Growth for 380.mdl
SME's”
Bakken, Bent Erik, “The Atlantic Defense Technology Gap: 319.itm
Will It Be Closed?”
Bassi, Andrea, “Strategic Analysis Evolution: Scenario 136.zip
Planning and Simulation Based on the Methodology of
System Dynamics”
Bayer, Steffen, “Assessing the Impact of a Care Innovation: 275.mdl
Telecare”
Bayer, Steffen, “Is the Madness Home Made?: Examining 273.vmf
Internal Causes of Workload Fluctuation in Project
Enterprises”
Bianchi, Carmine, “Using System Dynamics ILE's to Enhance http://www.unipa.it/~bianchi
Intellectual Capital Policies in Service Businesses”
Borshchev, Andrei, “From System Dynamics and Discrete 381.zip
Event to Practical Agent Based Modeling: Reasons, http://www.anylogic.com
Techniques, Tools”
224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Reading Supporting Material continued
Bourguet-Diaz, Rafael, “Design of a Community Learning for 267.mdl
System Dynamics”
Capelo, Carlos, “Scenario Planning and Evaluation of Pricing 115.ppt
Strategies in the Portuguese Bulk LPG Market”
Conrad, Stephen, “The Dynamics of Agricultural Commodities 352.mdl
and Their Responses to Disruptions of Considerable
Magnitude”
Cooke, David, “Using System Dynamics Models to Enhance 206.mdl
the Visualization of Stochastic Price Processes”
Crespo Marquez, Adolfo, “A Decision Support System (DSS) 183.zip
for Evaluating Operations Investments in High-
Technology Business”
Crespo Marquez, Adolfo, “Introducing Autoregressive 188.zip
Elements in System Dynamics Models”
Dias, Joao, “System Dynamics and Time Series Analysis: 114.pdf
Two Approaches for a Convergent Answer”
Dudley, Richard, “The Dynamic Structure of Social Capital: 117.zip,
~ . http://www.people.cornell
How Interpersonal Connections Create du/ /ewd6/
Communitywide Benefits” “edu/pagesits\
Duggan, Jim, “Policy Diffusion in the Beer Game” 162.mdl
Eskinasi, Martijn, “Simulating the Urban Transformation 289.zip
Process in the Haaglanden Region, the Netherlands”
Georgantzas, Nicholas, “Collaborative Law Dynamics: 341.zip
Collegiality in Civil Litigation?”
Gongalves, Paulo, “The Impact of Endogenous Demand on 308.zip
Push-Pull Production Systems”
Gonzalez, José, “System Dynamics Student Projects as Quality 167.zip
Improving Process”
Grossmann, Wolf, “Modeling Innovation-Based Approaches to 398.itm
Climate Mitigation”
Giindiiz, Yalin, “A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling 133.zip
Business-to-Business Markets: The Case of Siemens”
Haslett, Tim, “Simulating Hamlet: A Critique” 108.stm
Heffernan, Mark, “National Medicines Use Dynamics: 334.itm
Influencing Health Policy with System Dynamics”
Heffernan, Mark, “Using System Dynamics to Analyse Health 337.itm
System Performance within the WHO Framework”
Holmstrém, Paul, “Staff Retention and Job Satisfaction at a 225.itm
Hospital Clinic: A Case Study”
Hovmand, Peter, “Managing a Prosecutor's Domestic Violence 351.zip
Caseload”
Kalin, CJ, “Enrollment Management Dynamics of Adult 315.txt
Undergraduate Degree-Completion Business Programs
at Private Universities”
21* International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 20 - 24, 2003, New York City, USA
Reading Supporting Material continued
Lee, Man-Hyung, “Green Belt Policy Change and Uninvited
Aftereffect in Seoul”
Lizeo, Elaine, “Understanding the Learning Process in Work
Groups”
Lofdahl, Corey, “Presenting System Dynamics to Social
Scientists: An Economics Example”
Luna Reyes, Luis, “Emergence of the Governance Structure
for Information Integration across Governmental
Agencies: A System Dynamics Approach”
Luna Reyes, Luis, “Scripts for Group Model Building:
Modeling the Emergence of Governance for
Information Integration across Government Agencies
Mandal, Abhijit, “Dynamic Balance, Executive Management
and Differential Performance: A Resource-Based
Approach”
Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio, “Exploring Change in
Organizational Rule Systems: Learning Dynamics in
Performance Measurement”
Mojtahedzadeh, Mohammad, “Bringing Systems Thinking to
the Spreadsheet”
Park, Hun-Joon, “Leverage Strategy to National R&D
Investment in Korea: A System Dynamics Approach”
Petrides, Lazaros, “An Economic Analysis of the PAYG
Retirement System and the Expected Consequences
from a Transition to an FF Scheme”
Pruyt, Erik, “System Dynamics Models of Electrical Wind
Power”
Radianti, Jaziar, “Modeling Government External Debt and
Sustainability of Fiscal Policy”
Rahmandad, Hazhir, “Heterogeneity and Network Structure in
the Dynamics of Contagion: Comparing Agent-Based
and Differential Equation Models”
Raimondi, Vittorio, “The Role of System Dynamics in
Achieving Breakthrough Thinking in Entrenched
Marketing Teams: Lessons from a Case Study in the
Pharmaceutical OTC Industry”
Reichel, André, “(Re-)Structuration of System Dynamics”
Ryzhenkov, Alexander, “Profitability, Productivity and
Employment in a Model of the US Long Waves”
Salge, Markus, “The Pace or the Path?: Resource
Accumulation Strategies in the US Airline Industry”
Sanders, Peter, “Spatial Urban Dynamics and a Vision of the
Future of Urban Dynamics: Forrester Revisited”
Schieritz, Nadine, “Exploring the Agent Vocabulary:
Emergence and Evolution in System Dynamics”
409.pdf
268.zip
http://mitpress.mit.edu/
0262122456
382.mdl
383.zip
282.ppt
http://www.albany.edu/
~im7797/conferences.html
www.attunegroup.com
368.stm
143.txt
203.pdf
216.sim
173.zip
125.pdf
266.pdf
371 pdf
150.zip
119.pdf
339.zip
224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Reading Supporting Material continued
Schild, Heinz, “Enforcement in Free-Flow Systems: A Case 132.pdf
Study”
Scholl, Hans, “Can System Dynamics Models Have Greater http://faculty.washington
Relevance to Practice When Used within Participatory .edu/jscholl/
Action Research Designs?”
Scholl, Hans, “Using Integrated Top-Down and Bottom-Up http://faculty.washington
Dynamic Modeling for Triangulation and .edu/jscholl/
Interdisciplinary Theory Integration: The Case of
Long-term Firm Performance and Survival”
Schwarz, Rainer, “Dynamics of Depreciation and Scrapping in 246.zip
Business Economics”
Singh, Rohita, “Cultural Transformation Geniusys” www.geniusys.com.au
Sotaquira, Ricardo, “Reusability in System Dynamics: Current http://fis.unab.edu.co/gps/
Approaches and Improvement Opportunities” sistemika/index/html
Stamboulis, Yeoryios, “A Time-Based Innovation Strategy 330.pdf
Game”
Stepanovich, Paul, “The New Hire: Teaching Behavioral 169.itm
Dynamics in Management”
Strohhecker, Jiirgen, “Simulation Based Experiments for 410.pdf
Testing Balanced Scorecard's Built-in Performance
Improvement Theory”
Struben, Jeroen, “Technology Transitions: Identifying 343.pdf
Challenges for Hydrogen Vehicles”
Suksawang, Orasa, “A System Dynamics Approach to 402.zip
Applications of Buddha's Dialogues”
Tamez, Cindy, “Implications in the Health Sector Given the 272.itm
Tendency of Population Aging in Mexico”
Tanaka, Nobuhide, “Fundamental Analysis of the 400.stm
Attractiveness of a Shopping Street”
Taylor, Kathryn, “Exploring the Feedback Effects of 105.pdf
Reconfiguring Health Services: The Case of Cardiac
Catheterization Procedures”
Thun, Jérn-Henrik, “Modeling Modern Maintenance: A 251.mdl
System Dynamics Model Analyzing the Dynamic
Implications of Implementing Total Productive
Maintenance”
Trailer, Jeff, “Assessing Public Policy Impact on the 358.mdl
Sustainable Growth Rate of New Ventures”
Trailer, Jeff, “Ten Steps to Simulate your Strategic 356.zip
Architecture”
Tseng, Ya-tsai, “From Loop Dominance Analysis to System 228.xIs
Behaviors”
Ulli-Beer, Silvia, “A System Dynamics Choice Structure for 317.zip
Policy Compliance: Micro Behavior Explaining
Aggregated Recycling Dynamics”
21* International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 20 - 24, 2003, New York City, USA
Reading Supporting Material continued
Ulli-Beer, Silvia, “Using a System Dynamics-SWM Model to
Inform Policymaking for Solid Waste Management at
the Local Level”
Umar, Imrana, “Improving the Collective Capacity of
Managers to Execute Strategy and Create Value: A
Dynamic Simulation-Based Approach to Strategy
Communication and Management Training”
Vogstad, Klaus, “Counterproductive Environmental Policies:
Long Term versus Short Term Substitution Effects of
Gas in a Liberalized Electricity Market”
Voyer, John, “Affordable Housing and Urban Sprawl Policy
Choices in York County, Maine: A System Dynamics
Approach”
Whitney-Smith, Elin, “Pleistocene Extinctions:
Counterintuitive Results of Combining Hypotheses
(Overkill, Second Order Predation, and Environmental
Degradation”
Wiik, Johannes, “Dynamics of Vulnerability”
Yeon, Seung-Jun, “A Dynamic Diffusion Model for Managing
Customer's Expectation and Satisfaction”
Yepez, Carlos, “Venture Capital Investment Dynamics during
Market Boom and Market Meltdown”
Young, Showing, “A Model of Structural Oscillation of
Conflict Goals”
Young, Showing, “A System Dynamics Evaluation of SARS
Preventing Policies in Taiwan”
320.zip
348.pdf
http://www.stud.ntnu.no/
~klausv/kraftsim
106.mdl
http://quaternary.net
307.sip
403.zip
138.mdl
243.itm
245.itm
224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Welcome
Dear Colleagues,
Welcome to the 22” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. We are sure you will agree it
is very fitting that the conference should return to the UK on the tenth anniversary of our last visit to this
island. In 1994, we were hosted in Stirling, in the heart of beautiful Scotland. This year, we are equally
fortunate in securing this prestigious, world-renowned venue in Oxford, the heart of England.
Oxford University is the oldest English-speaking university in the world. Teaching here started in the year
1096, with the first international student in 1190. Ladies and gentlemen, we are following in well-worn
footsteps to this place on a path trodden for nearly 900 years!
The thirty-nine Colleges of Oxford University, though independent and self-governing, are related in a
federal system, not unlike the United States. Each is governed by a Head of House and a Governing Body
comprised of a number of Fellows, most of whom also hold University posts. This federal collegiality has
served well this ancient and thriving institution and we have chosen “collegiality” as our conference theme.
We hope that, as we hold our discussions in the walls of this, Keble College, a collegial spirit will help us
further our learning of system dynamics, its formulation and application towards greater understanding in the
wider “college” of professionals, academics and students whom we seek ultimately to influence.
To this end, several of the sessions are devoted to examining the ways in which system dynamics can be
used to think together, achieve consensus and assist with the implementation of coherent plans. In particular,
there will be a special opening plenary session on “Bringing Coherence and Consensus to Public Policy
Making”, and another special session on “Working Ideas, Insights for Systems Modelling — The Broader
Community of Systems Thinkers”.
As you can see from the presentation titles listed in our programme, the field of system dynamics continues
to grow. Well over 250 scheduled presentations are broken down into an exciting variety of parallel and
convened sessions, interesting poster sessions, skill-building workshops, and a fascinating array of plenary
and special sessions. Over the next four days you will have a chance to sample system dynamics work by
leading practitioners who come here to Oxford from over 40 countries. We hope that you will enjoy the
programme, learn and share, renew ties with old friends and make new acquaintances.
To increase your enjoyment of the conference, we have scheduled several on-site special events, including an
Informal Gathering and a Welcome Reception. We welcome those who may be accompanying conference
participants but not attending the formal sessions. We hope that you will take part in the special events, sense
the history of Keble College, and enjoy the attractions of Oxford!
This year over 230 volunteer reviewers screened and commented on submissions. In addition, dozens of
volunteers worked many hours to ensure a successful conference, not least the Policy Council of the local
UK System Dynamics Chapter. Without their commitment our conference would be impossible. A special
thanks goes to all who helped.
In addition to having as our conference host HVR Consulting Services Ltd., we are also very fortunate this
year to have a conference partner, Powersim Software AS. We appreciate sincerely the enthusiasm and
support of our sponsors.
We hope that you find the conference rewarding and surroundings inspiring. Please bring to our attention
anything that may help us to both ensure the success of this, and future, conferences.
Thank you for joining us.
Best wishes from the Conference Organizing Committee,
Jonathan Coyle, Graham Winch, Michael Kennedy, Jack Homer and Roberta Spencer
22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25 ~ 29, 2004 Oxford, England
Organizing Committee
Conference Chair:
Jonathan M. Coyle
Independent Consultant
Hampshire, UK.
Workshop Chair:
Jack Homer
Homer Consulting
Voorhees, New Jersey, USA
Programme Co- Chair:
Michael Kennedy
London South Bank University
London, UK
Programme Co- Chair:
Graham W. Winch
University of Plymouth
Plymouth, Devon, UK.
Conference Manager:
Roberta L. Spencer
System Dynamics Society
Albany, New York USA
Host and Partner
Conference Host:
HVR Consulting Services Ltd
Alton Hampshire, UK
Conference Partner:
Powersim Software AS
Bergen, Norway
Volunteers
Henk Akkermans
Minase BV
Stream Organizer
Session Convener
Lise Albrechtsen
University of Oxford
Student Assistant
Monica Altamirano
Delft University of Technology
Session Reporter
Jason Anagnostopoulos
University of Strathclyde
Student Assistant
Stefano Armenia
Tor Vergata University Rome
Session Reporter
Bjorn Bakken
Norwegian Defence Leadership
Institute
Roundtable Chair
John Barton
AssetEconomics Inc
Session Reporter
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Carmine Bianchi
University of Palermo
Stream Organizer
Klaus Breuer
Johannes-Gutenberg-University
Mainz
Session Reporter
Rod Brown
Strategy Dynamics Consulting
Stream Organizer
Robert Y. Cavana
Victoria University of
Wellington
Stream Organizer
Dean Christensen
Cyber Learning Corporation
Conference Photographer
Shannon Cornelius
Volunteer
Geoff Coyle
University of Bath
Stream Organizer
Session Convener
Brian Dangerfield
University of Salford
Stream Organizer
Pal Davidsen
University of Bergen
Stream Organizer
David Exelby
HVR Consulting Services Ltd
Modelling Assistance
Workshop Organizer
Roundtable Chair
Stream Organizer
Volunteer
Andrew Ford
Washington State University
Stream Organizer
David Ford
Texas A&M University
Stream Organizer
Valerie Gacogne
NESTEAR
Session Reporter
July 25-29, 2004 Oxford, England
Volunteers continued
José Gonzalez
Agder University College
Stream Organizer
Session Convener
Andreas GroBler
Mannheim University
Stream Organizer
Session Reporter
Burak Giineralp
University of Illinois at Urbana-
Champaign
PhD Colloquium Coordinator
Session Reporter
Student Assistant
Gary Hirsch
Consultant, Creator of Learning
Environments
Session Reporter
Jack Homer
Homer Consulting
Stream Organizer
Peter Hoymand
Washington University in St
Louis
Session Reporter
Wouter Jongebreur
Significant BV
Session Reporter
CJ Kalin
University of San Francisco
Session Reporter
Birgit Kopainsky
Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology
Session Reporter
Student Assistant
Corey Lofdahl
SAIC
Session Reporter
Alexander Lubyansky
University at Albany
Training and Educational
Programmes Coordinator
Kambiz Maani
University of Auckland
Session Reporter
Roderick H. MacDonald
Initiative for System Dynamics
in the Public Sector
Session Reporter
Volunteer
Ignacio J. Martinez-
Moyano
University at Albany
Volunteer Coordinator
Geoff McDonnell
University of New South Wales
Session Reporter
R.M. Mooy
TNO
Session Reporter
Alfredo O. Moscardini
University of Sunderland
Stream Organizer
Session Convener
Radhika Nath
Volunteer
Ken Parsons
Session Reporter
Anastassios Perdicoulis
Universidade de Tras-os-
Montes e Alto Douro
Stream Organizer
Roundtable Chair
Lazaros Petrides
University of Salford
Session Reporter
John H. Powell
Bath University
Stream Organizer
Session Convener
Jack Pugh
Retired
Webmaster
Patricia M. Quinn
General Electric
Training and Educational
Programmes Coordinator
Michael J. Radzicki
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Stream Organizer
Roundtable Chair
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
July 25 — 29, 2004
Jared M. Rhoads
McCallum Graduate School of
Business, Bentley College
Student Assistant
Scott Rockart
Duke University
Session Reporter
Etiénne Rouwette
Nijmegen University
Stream Organizer
Session Reporter
Aamir Shehzad
Powersim Software AS
Session Reporter
Jeroen Struben
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Student Assistant
Kathy Taylor
London School of Economics
Local Area Information
Coordinator
Silvia Ulli-Beer
University of St Gallen
Session Reporter
Student Assistant
Kim D. Warren
London Business School
Stream Organizer
Elise Axelrad Weaver
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Stream Organizer
Yan Xing
CORAS University of Salford
Session Reporter
Student Assistant
Carlos Yepez
Carleton University
Session Reporter
Student Assistant
Aldo Zagonel
Sandia National Laboratories
Session Reporter
Volunteer
Oxford, England
Submission Reviewers
Tarek Abdel-Hamid
Naval Postgraduate School
John Affeldt
Booz Allen Hamilton
Henk Akkermans
Minase BV
Bahaa Aly Abdel-Aleem
Egyptian Cabinet
Jennifer Andersen
Powersim Software AS
Lascelles Anderson
University of Illinois at Chicago
Santiago Arango
University of Bergen
Carlos Ariza
PA Consulting Group
Daniel Arthur
University of Surrey
George Backus
Policy Assessment Corporation
Walid Badr
Mohaseboon
Bent Erik Bakken
Norwegian Defence Research
Establishment
Bjorn Bakken
Norwegian Defence Leadership
Institute
Yaman Barlas
Bogazigi University
Brian Barry
Independent Consultant
John Barton
AssetEconomics Inc
Steffen Bayer
Imperial College London
Salim Belyazid
Lund University
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Walt Beyeler
Sandia National Laboratories
Carmine Bianchi
University of Palermo
Enzo Bivona
University of Palermo
Laura Black
Montana State University
J. Robert Bois
USAF Air Command and Staff
College
Malcolm Brady
Dublin City University
Stephen Brewis
BT
Rod Brown
Strategy Dynamics Consulting
Theresa Brown
Sandia National Laboratories
Robert Cavana
Victoria University of Wellington
Sungsook Cho
Washington University
Martin Cloutier
University of Quebec at Montreal
Henry Cole
University of Alaska
Dan Compton
Dan Compton Consulting
Stephen Conrad
Sandia National Laboratories
David Cooke
University of Calgary
Jonathan Coyle
Independent Consultant
Geoff Coyle
University of Bath
July 25
Brian Dangerfield
University of Salford
Julia Di Stefano
New Hampshire College
G6khan Dogan
MIT
Richard Dudley
Independent Consultant
Isaac Dyner
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Robert Eberlein
Ventana Systems Inc
Fredrik Elg
Vanguard Strategy
Philip Emmi
University of Utah
Jérn Ewaldt
Barkawi & Partner GmbH
David Exelby
HVR Consulting Services Ltd
Jan Faber
Rijksuniversiteit Utrecht
Lars Finskud
Vanguard Brand Management
Diana Fisher
Wilson High School
Andrew Ford
Washington State University
David Ford
Texas A&M University
Tom Forest
Prometheal Systems
Jay Forrest
Jay Forrest, Consulting Strategist
Jay Forrester
MIT
Carol Frances
Claremont Graduate University
29, 2004 Oxford, England 5
Submission Reviewers continued
Caroline Fu
Chapman University
Valerie Gacogne
NESTEAR
Peter Galbraith
University of Queensland
Shayne Gary
University of New South Wales
Heiko Gebauer
University of St Gallen
Nicholas Georgantzas
Fordham University Business
Schools
Mila Getmansky
MIT Sloan School of Management
Sameh Gharib
University of Bergen
Roderic Gill
Centre for Ecological Economics
and Water Policy Research
(UNE)
David Gillespie
Washington University
Martin Gilljam
Norwegian Defence Research
Establishment
Will Glass-Husain
Forio Business Simulations
Dan Goldner
Ventana Systems Inc
Diego Gomez
Universidad Nacional
Paulo Gongalves
University of Miami
José Gonzalez
Agder University College
Alan Graham
PA Consulting Group
Andreas Gréfler
Mannheim University
Bas Groothedde
TNO, Institute of Applied
Scientific Research in the
Netherlands
Carolus Griitters
University of Nijmegen
John Gunkler
Excelsior Group
Roger Hall
University of Manitoba
Charles Han
Tamkang University
Hoérdur Haraldsson
Lund University
Tim Haslett
Monash University
Mark Heffernan
International System Dynamics
Pty Ltd
John Heinbokel
CIESD LLP
Stefanie Hillen
Teacher Training Center
Wiesbaden
Gary Hirsch
Consultant, Creator of Learning
Environments
Jack Homer
Homer Consulting
Peter Hovmand
Washington University in St Louis
Naiyi Hsiao
Shih Hsin University
Rueylin Hsiao
National University of Singapore
C. Sherry Immediato
SoL, The Society for
Organizational Learning
Jacob Jacobson
Idaho National Engineering and
Environmental Laboratory
6 22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Greg Jacobus
Independent Consultant
Anil Jambekar
Michigan Technological
University
Daniel Jarosch
IBM Business Consulting Services
Omer Jirdeh
University at Albany
Nitin Joglekar
Boston University
Paul Johnson
University of Minnesota
Scott Johnson
BP
Andrew Jones
Sustainability Institute
Lee Jones
Ventana Systems UK Ltd
Robert Judson
BearingPoint
Christer Kalén
Lund University
Robert Kallenberg
Porsche AG
Florian Kapmeier
Universitat Stuttgart
Michel Karsky
KBS (Knowledge Based
Simulation)
Hans Kasperidus
UFZ Leipzig Halle
Elzbieta Kasperska
Silesian University of Technology
Elizabeth Keating
Harvard University
Doahoon Kim
Sookmyung Woman's University
Sang-Wook Kim
Chungbuk National University
July 25~ 29, 2004 Oxford, England
Submission Reviewers continued
Craig Kirkwood
Arizona State University
Miroljub Kljajic
University of Maribor
Deniz Koca
Lund University
Klaus Kocher
Kocher & Gaide
Ulli Kénig
RWE Energy AG
Gordon Kubanek
Brookfield High School
Martin Kune
London Business School
Hironori Kurono
Hiroshima Prefectual University
Ulrich La Roche
La Roche Consulting
David Lane
London School of Economics and
Political Science
Sharon Lansing
New York State Division of
Criminal Justice
Erik Larsen
City University Business School
Myoung Ho Lee
Han-Kuk University of Foreign
Studies
Tsuey-Ping Lee
Tunghai University
Carlos Legna
La Laguna University
Ralph Levine
Michigan State University
Keith Linard
Ankie Consulting Pty Ltd
Jingjiang Liu
Zhejiang University
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Corey Lofdahl
SAIC
Luis Lépez
INCAE Graduate School of
Business
Mohamed Loutfi
University of Sunderland
Gregory Love
Project Performance Corporation
Luis Luna Reyes
Universidad de las Americas
Puebla
Debra Lyneis
Creative Learning Exchange
James Lyneis
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Kambiz Maani
University of Auckland
Roderick MacDonald
Initiative for System Dynamics in
the Public Sector
Abhijit Mandal
Warwick Business School
Gianliborio Marrone
Business Dynamics
Ignacio Martinez-Moyano
University at Albany
Juan Martin Garcia
UPC
Geoff McDonnell
University of New South Wales
Alan McLucas
Australian Defence Force
Academy
Dennis Meadows
University of New Hampshire
Carlos Méndez Acosta
Universidad Catolica Argentina
Thar Miklashevich
Belarusian National Technical
University
Peter Milling
Mannheim University
Pratap Mohapatra
Indian Institute of Technology
Jonathan Moizer
University of Plymouth
Edoardo Mollona
Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Michiya Morita
Gakushuin University
Marciano Morozowski Filho
Lactec
J. Bradley Morrison
MIT
Alfredo Moscardini
University of Sunderland
Magne Myrtveit
Dynaplan
Paul Newton
University of Bergen and Cornell
University
Kate Orchard
BP
Peter Otto
Dowling College
David Packer
Systems Thinking Collaborative
Ozge Pala
Nijmegen University
Sang-Hyun Park
Chungbuk National University
Oleg Pavlov
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Matteo Pedercini
Millennium Institute
Janecke Pemmer
Powersim Software AS
Anastassios Perdicoulis
Univ de Tras-os-Montes e Alto
Douro
July 25-29, 2004 Oxford, England %
Submission Reviewers continued
Gloria Pérez Salazar
ITESM Campus Monterrey
Steve Peterson
The Peterson Group
Lazaros Petrides
University of Salford
David Pfeiffer
University of Minnesota
Seckin Polat
Istanbul Technical University
Weishuang Qu
Millennium Institute
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah
York University
Hal Rabbino
Strategic Clarity
Michael Radzicki
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Hazhir Rahmandad
MIT
R. Joel Rahn
Francesco Vittorio Raimondi
Vanguard Strategy
Jorgen Randers
Norwegian School of Management
Juan Rego
National Research Council of
Argentina
Nelson Repenning
MIT
Eliot Rich
University at Albany
John Richardson
American University
James Ritchie-Dunham
Institute for Strategic Clarity
Scott Rockart
Duke University
Georges Romme
Tilburg University
Etiénne Rouwette
Nijmegen University
Rafael Ruiz-Usano
University of Seville
Morten Ruud
Norwegian Defence Leadership
Institute
Alexander Ryzhenkov
Russian Academy of Sciences
Mohamed Saleh
Egyptian Cabinet
Ali Saysel
University of Bergen
Nadine Schieritz
Mannheim University
Frank Schoeneborn
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen AG
Markus Schwaninger
University of St Gallen
Habib Sedehi
University of Rome
Donald Seville
The Sustainability Institute
Dennis Sherwood
Silver Bullet Machine
Manufacturing Co
Michelle Shields
Christchurch College of Education
Andrej Skraba
University of Maribor
M. Dolores Soto-Torres
Universidad de Valladolid
J. Michael Spector
Syracuse University
Craig Stephens
PA Consulting Group
John Sterman
MIT
8 22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Jiirgen Strohhecker
HfB Business School of Finance
and Management
Jeroen Struben
MIT
Toru Suetake
Chuo University
Mats Svensson
Lund University
Fabian Szulanski
University of Bergen
Victor Thombs
Decision Dynamics Inc
James Thompson
Cigna Health Care
Warren Tignor
SAIC
Ya-tsai Tseng
Tunghai University
Shigehisa Tsuchiya
Chiba Institute of Technology
Yi Ming Tu
National Sun Yat-Sen University
David Turbow
University of California Irvine
Silvia Ulli-Beer
University of Berne
Imrana Umar
Powersim Solutions
Theo van Mullekom
University of Nijmegen
Peter Vanderminden
JP Morgan Partners LLC
Klaus Vogstad
Washington State University
John Voyer
University of Southern Maine
Khaled Wahba
Cairo University
July 25~ 29, 2004 Oxford, England
Submission Reviewers continued
Robert Walker
Delsys Research Group Inc
Kim Warren
London Business School
Elise Weaver
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Henry Weil
MIT
David Wheat
Wheat Resources Inc
Anthony White
Middlesex University
Martha Wilson
University of Minnesota Duluth
Eric Wolstenholme
OLM Consulting
Kaoru Yamaguchi
Doshisha Business School
Athanasios Yannacopoulos
University of the Aegean
Seung-Jun Yeon
Electronics and
Telecommunications Research
Institute
Joseph Yoon
Commonwealth Government of
Australia
Erich Zahn
Universitat Stuttgart
Agnieszka Ziomek
Poznan University of Economics
If you are interested in reviewing submissions for future conferences, please send an email
message to the System Dynamics Society at <system.dynamics@albany.edu> including your
name, contact information and area(s) of expertise.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
July 25-29, 2004 Oxford, England 9
Acknowledgment of Sponsors
VENTANA
systems, inc.
WILEY
London
Business
School
Sincere Thanks to Our Sponsors
Many organizations and individuals contributed to this
conference. We wholeheartedly thank our sponsors and
encourage you to thank their representatives during the
conference. Please see the complete list of conference
sponsors and exhibitors on pages 12 and 13.
Much appreciation to our gracious conference host, HVR
Consulting Services Ltd. for not only sponsoring the
opening plenary session, Bringing Coherence and Con-
sensus to Public Policy Making, but for also providing
the pens and note pads included in your conference
satchel.
We would like to thank Powersim Software AS, our con-
ference partner, for sponsoring the Port & Stilton Wel-
come Reception at the Oxford University Museum of
Natural History.
Ventana Systems, Inc. and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. are
co-sponsoring the printed and CD-ROM proceedings.
UNIVERSITY
4 Powersim Solutions
Amber Blocks, Ltd. a business simulation systems company
22"* International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Acknowledgment of Sponsors continued
The System Dynamics Group from the London Business
School is sponsoring the special plenary session Work-
ing Ideas, Insights for Systems Modelling—The Broader
Community of Systems Thinkers. The London South
Bank University is sponsor of the PhD Colloquium.
Powersim Solutions is providing Internet access points
in the common room for our use. Once again, Amber
Blocks, Ltd. is funding the Dana Meadows Student Prize
(for best paper by a student presented at the conference).
GE Employers Reinsurance Corporation produced all PEGASUS
on-site posters for us again and Lane Press of Albany =n
once more provided a credit for brochure printing.
SV)
ge
,
Our sponsors and exhibitors broaden and enrich our con- g Centre for OR &
ae . © Applied Statistics
ference. Additional sponsors include: Attune Group Inc., “sf >
LrO®
Centre for Operational Research & Applied Statistics
(CORAS) at the University of Salford, Forio Business
Simulations, Global Strategy Dynamics Ltd., Georgia e
Pacific Corporation, isee systems, Pegasus Communica- For! O
tions, SoL - The Society for Organization Learning,
Business Simulations
Ventana Systems UK, and XJ Technologies.
VENTANA :
systems UK Attune Group, Inc.
Society for
Organizational Learning
=e=-a-b (Systems:
THE VISUAL THINKING COMPANY
TB sechacloges
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 1
Sponsors and Exhibitors
12
Amber Blocks, Ltd.
145 East 48th Street Suite 30C
New York, New York 10017
United States of America
Phone: + 1 212 593 3110
Fax: + 1 212 593 0441
Attune Group Inc.
16 Regina Court
Albany, New York 12054
United States of America
Phone: + 1 518 475 0783
Fax: + 1 518 475 0783
www.attunegroup.com
Centre for Operational Research &
Applied Statistics (CORAS),
University of Salford
Maxwell Building
Salford MS 4WT
United Kingdom
Phone: + 0161 295 4022
Fax: + 0161 295 4947
www.aems.salford.ac.uk/coras.html
Forio Business Simulations
2320 Jones Street
San Francisco, California 94133
United States of America
Phone: + 1 415 440 7500
Fax: + 1 415 354 3457
www.forio.com
GE Employers Reinsurance
Corporation
20 Security Drive, Suite 301
Avon, Connecticut 06001
United States of America
www.ercgroup.com
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25-29, 2004 Oxford, England
Georgia Pacific Corporation
133 Peachtree Street
Atlanta, Georgia 30303
United States of America
Phone: + 1 404 652 2692
Fax: + 1 404 367 9633
www.gp.com
Global Strategy Dynamics Ltd.
Two Farthings Aylesbury Road
Monks Risborough, Bucks HP27 0JS
United Kingdom
Phone: + 44 1844 274061
Fax: + 44 1844 275507
www-.strategydynamics.com
HVR Consulting Services Ltd.
Selborne House Mill Lane
Alton, Hampshire GU34 2QJ
United Kingdom
Phone: + 44 1420 87977
Fax: + 44 1420 89819
www.hvr-csl.co.uk
isee systems
46 Centerra Pkwy Suite 200
Lebanon, New Hampshire 03766-1487
United States of America
Phone: + 1 603 643 9636
Fax: + 1 603 643 9502
www.iseesystems.com
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The Atrium, Southern Gate
Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ
United Kingdom
Phone: + 44 1243 779777
Fax: + 44 1243 775878
www.wileyeurope.com
Sponsor and Exhibitors continued
Lane Press of Albany
11 Kairnes Street
Albany, New York 12205
United States of America
Phone: + 1 518 438 7834
Fax: + 1 518 438 3942
www.lanepressofalbany.com
London Business School
Regent's Park
London NW1 4SA
United Kingdom
Phone: + 44 (0)20 7262 5050
Fax: + 44 (0)20 7724 7875
www.london.edu
London South Bank University
103 Borough Road
London SEI 0AA
United Kingdom
Phone: + 020 7928 8989
www.sbu.ac.uk
Pegasus Communications
One Moody Street
Waltham, Massachusetts 02453-5339
United States of America
Phone: + 1 781 398 9700
Fax: + 1 781 894 7175
Www.pegasuscom.com
Powersim Software AS
PO Box 3961 Dreggen
N-5835 Bergen
Norway
Phone: + 47 55 60 65 00
Fax: + 47 55 60 65 01
Wwww.powersim.com
Powersim Solutions
585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon, Virginia 20170
United States of America
Phone: + 1 703 467 0910
Fax: + 1 703 467 0912
www.powersimsolutions.com
SoL,
The Society for Organizational
Learning
25 First St, 4th Floor
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02141-1802
United States of America
Phone: + 1 617 300 9500
Fax: + 1 617 354 2093
www.solonline.org
Ventana Systems UK Ltd.
41 Western Way
Salisbury, Wiltshire SP2 9DR
United Kingdom
Phone: + 44 151 513 9779
Fax: + 44 709 2024 736
www.ventanasystems.co.uk
Ventana Systems, Inc.
60 Jacob Gates Road
Harvard, Massachusetts 01451
United States of America
Phone: + 1 508 651 0544
Fax: + 1 508 650 5422
www.vensim.com
XJ Technologies
21 Polytechnicheskaya Street, Suite 105
St. Petersburg 194021
Russia
Phone: + 7 812 247 1674
Fax: + 7 812 247 1639
www.xjtek.com
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25-29, 2004 — Oxford, England 13
Powersi Kes! rae
ns a eae ss I Studio 2003
J
. let Powersim help you simulate your future:
Simulations can help a management application by
building models that reflect your company's operations,
your competitors, and your market place. Powerful
simulations enable your employees to practice policy
analysis, competitive strategies, and "what-if" scenarios
f=] in a risk-free environment, and gain insight into the
consequences of their day-to-day decision-making.
Powersim Business Planning & Simulation Solutions:
Powersim’s Business Simulation Technology
« — Provides executives with a transparent and holistic view of internal and external business processes.
e — Reduces time and effort to assess the risk and return profiles of strategic options.
« — Reduces time and effort to adopt strategies to changes in the business environment, such as new market
conditions.
e Captures tangible as well as intangible assets, such as Intellectual Property, brand value, R&D pipeline, and
human capital.
© Improves budgeting and speeds up forecasting and re-forecasting.
Powersim Application Areas:
« Cooperate- Evaluate strategic alternatives before committing resources for new investments and initiatives.
« Financial- Business planning and forecasting to manage working capital, investments and profitability.
«© Customer Relationship- Sales and profit planning, profitability analysis, and marketing analysis to optimize
customer relationships.
e Supply Chain- Collaborative planning and forecasting. Procurement, production analysis, and value chain
optimization.
« Human Resource- Workforce planning, forecasting, benchmarking and reporting. Efficient allocation and
scheduling of HR activities. Identification of enterprise areas that need training.
e Product Lifecycle- Product portfolio management and lifecycle cost management.
Powersim Software is the conference sponsor for the System Dynamics Conference
For more information contact: Visit our stand:
Powersim Software AS, See conference program for
Tel: +47 55 60 65 00, location. System Dynamics
Fax: +47 55 60 65 01, Conference attendees qualify for a
Email: powersim@ powersim.no special discount price for Powersim
Web: www.powersim.com Studio.
System
Dynamics
Society
Powersim Software is the conference partner for the System Dynamics Conference 2004.
Services
www.hvrgroup.com
HVR has been providing System Dynamics
consultancy services to a wide range of
clients in government and industry since
1994. One of many examples is a study
carried out to investigate the potential risks
associated with the spread of vC) D through
the use of surgical instruments. Focusing on
the risks of cross-infection, the study resulted
in changes in policy and prompted a £200m
investment in new instrument cleaning
facilities.
Our strong focus on best practice is illustrated
by the development of a methodology for the
verification and validation of System
Dynamics based models. This includes
validation with mental models, ensuring that
the problem has been well understood with a
suitable boundary; verification of the
simulation model to be certain that the
influence diagram has been correctly
translated into a quantitative simulation
model; and finally, tests designed to validate
the simulation model, comparing the model's
behaviour with that of the real world.
Defence Focus
Our focus on the defence sector means that
we bring unparalleled knowledge of the
market place and the issues that face our
clients to all our assignments. As part of our
professional development programme, our
consultants receive training in these issues
from retired senior civil servants to ensure that
we continue to provide solutions focused on
our clients' precise needs.
Research and Development
The company has an extensive internal
research and development programme and
maintains links with the leading universities in
its core competencies. This ensures that we
maintain awareness of and access to the
latest thinking in those fields.
How We Work
As one of the UK’s leading providers of System
Dynamics consultancy, our reputation for
professionalism is second to none.
We work with our clients to deliver solutions
precisely tailored to their needs. HVR believes very
strongly in the need to transfer its technology to
clients, many of whom now have the capability to
undertake entire projects on their own.
Our process of model verification and validation
ensures that our clients receive recommendations
and conclusions that they can have total confidence
in.
HVR's team of consultants is also proficient in a
wide variety of other methodologies so we know
when, and when not to apply System Dynamics.
Model Integration
In the course of our work, we have developed a
number of tools for integrating System Dynamics
models with other applications.
We also develop sophisticated model harnesses that
can manage scenarios and outputs. This has the
benefit of making models easier to use and more
sustainable in the long term.
Career Opportunities
With three offices in the UK, HVR can offer exciting
career opportunities to System Dynamics
professionals. If you would like to know more,
please send your CV to the contact details below.
David Exelby
Strategy Team Manager
Email: david.exelby@ hvr-csl.co.uk
from
VENTANA
SYSTEMS, inc.
The newest tool for understanding your models is SyntheSim. You no longer need to
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With SyntheSim, each time you move a slider the model is automatically simulated
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so you can look at graphs and tables of numbers to dig into the causal dependencies.
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SyntheSim mode you can, with a click of the mouse, change any variable from
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60 J acob Gates Road Fax 508 650 5422
Harvard MA 01451 Vensim@ vensim.com
USA http://www.vensim.com
Experience SyntheSim yourself
Pick up a CD from our table in the Exhibition Area
CDs are Windows/Macintosh and include demonstration software and Vensim PLE
Vensim PLE is free for educational and personal use
The System Dynamics Group
at London Business School 1s
proud to sponsor the
special plenary session
Working Ideas,
Insights for Systems
Modelling--The Broader
Community of Systems
Thinkers
visa Regent's Park
School London NW1 4SA
http://www.london.edu
Access System
Dynamics Review
from your desktop...
System Dynamics Review
The Journal of the System Dynamics Society
EXECUTIVE EDITOR: Brian Dangerfield, Centre for
Operational Research and Applied Statistics, Faculty of
Business and Informatics, Maxwell Building, University
of Salford, Salford M5 4WT, UK
The System Dynamics Review exists to
communicate to a wide audience advances in the
application of the perspectives and methods of
system dynamics to societal, technical, managerial
and environmental problems.
Recently published papers
Links between systems thinking and complex
decision making
Kambiz E.Maani, Vandana Maharaj
Collecting and analysing qualitative data for
system dynamics: methods and models
Luis Felipe Luna-Reyes, Deborah Lines
Andersen
Selling system dynamics to (other) social scientists
Nelson P. Repenning
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System Dynamics SOUTH BANK
@ London South Bank University alec
London South Bank University is a dynamic, inner-city university with a diverse multi-cultural
population of some 17,000 students and around 1700 staff. For over 100 years the university has
provided top quality teaching and learning, underpinned by relevant research and delivered in an
environment that is focussed on the needs of its students and the great capital City of London. The
University's main campus is only minutes away from many of the capital's most famous locations
including the newest most visible landmark, the London Eye — the 135-metre diameter big wheel that
has come to dominate the London City's skyline.
ANK
(ERSITY
We have become London South Bank University. The University reorganisation and name change
was the perfect time to produce fresh imagery. Our new corporate logo represents an open,
accessible, and energetic institution. What we now have in use is a modern classic, which pays
homage to our history whilst projecting a distinctive and energy-filled image. In essence, a revitalised
University fit for its future. The University offers the MSc Decision Sciences, which is closely linked to
the needs of industry and the professions, with particular speciality in management decision-making
using system dynamics modelling. In addition to the Master studies, there is an active PhD research
programme in system dynamics applied to business process management and decision support
systems. If you are interested please contact: Dr Ddembe Williams (d.williams@Isbu.ac.uk). Or visit
us at http:/Awww.|sbu.ac.uk/bcim/
In celebrating our lease of new energy, the BCIM Faculty is proud to sponsor the 4 PhD Colloquium
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engineers and administrators from all over the world.
for inspired performance and remarkable results.
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THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS CAREER LINK
What is it? The SD Career Link, in its fifth year of operation, is hosted by the System
Dynamics Society at the University at Albany. It includes on-line information and links to
organizations who employ candidates with system dynamics and systems thinking
backgrounds. We hope that the SD Career Link will provide a valuable exchange of
information about organizations, positions and people in the field of system dynamics. Please
visit the SD Career Link bulletin board at the conference.
Career Link Allows Companies and Universities to Describe General Career
Information as Well as Specific Job Opportunities. The Career Link section of the
Society web site has two subsections: (1) career information; and (2) specific job postings. In
the career information section, employers and universities provide general descriptive
information about how system dynamics fits into their organization, typical jobs, career
paths, and other aspects of employment with the company. This subsection allows employers
to provide information about system dynamics opportunities within their firms, to supplement
the more general information contained on their corporate or academic websites. Such career
information is valuable to those interested in studying system dynamics, and we urge
companies and universities to describe system dynamics in their organization even if they do
not have specific open jobs at the present time. The subsection on specific job postings allows
employers to advertise active openings.
How to participate? Please refer to the System Dynamics Society website at
www.systemdynamics.org/ or send an email message to the Society office at
<system.dynamics@albany.edu>. All information about access to and use of the site will
remain confidential. We look forward to your participation.
30 22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25 ~ 29, 2004 Oxford, England
Announcing the System Dynamics Society 23™ International Conference
BOSTON 2005
July 17 - 21, 2005
Conference Venue
The Seaport Hotel in historic Boston offers the finest meeting
destination facility on the city’s vibrant harbor. It is in the heart
of Boston’s Seaport District overlooking the breathtaking
panoramic view of Boston Harbor and the city skyline. It is
located within minutes of the airport, financial district and the
downtown area, filled with restaurants, shops, museums and
attractions. Public spaces at the Seaport have wireless Wi-Fi
access and each guest room is equipped with complimentary
Internet/VPN access at T-1 speed. For more details and
information please visit: http://www.seaportboston.com
Program
The conference program will consist of plenary, parallel, poster
and workshop sessions demonstrating the state of the art in the
theory and application of system dynamics. In addition, panel
discussions, special interest group sessions, student colloquia, events of historic interest, vendor displays, exhibits,
demonstrations, Society business meetings and other related gatherings will be scheduled. The conference schedule will
provide time for relaxed social and professional interaction. The conference will bring together diverse perspectives on
the application of system dynamics to broaden perspectives and foster dialogue and debate.
Deadlines and Key Dates (tentative)
January 2, 2005
Opening date for presentation
submissions and workshop proposals.
June 17, 2005 Early conference registration deadline
and hotel room registration deadline.
PhD Colloquium and
March 18, 2005 | Paper submission deadline and July 17, 2005
Workshop proposals due. Policy Council Meeting.
May 2, 2005 Notification of acceptance. July 18, 2005 Boston Conference Opening!
May 4, 2005 Session proposals due. August 19, 2005 | Final papers for CD-ROM
Proceedings.
May 9, 2005 Final abstracts due for Proceedings. September 2005 | CD-ROM Proceedings mailed out.
June 1, 2005 Tentative program schedule.
Contacts
Program Co-chairs:
John D.Sterman and Nelson P. Repenning
MIT, Sloan School of Management
Cambridge, Massachusetts USA.
E-mail: jsterman@mit.edu or nelsonr@mit.edu
Workshop Chair:
Jack B. Homer, Homer Consulting
Voorhees, New Jersey USA
E-mail: jhomer@comcast.net
Conference Manager:
Roberta L. Spencer, Executive Director
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 - Rockefeller College, University at Albany
State University of New York
Albany, New York 12222 USA
Phone: +1 518 442-3865
Fax: +1 518 442-3398
E-mail: system.dynamics@albany.edu
For updated details, please visit the Society website at: www.systemdynamics.org/
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 31
Papers
Ahmed Mounir Abd El Azeem
ahmed.mounir@ qsdit.com
Quality Standards for Information Tech
3 Abou El Alaa El Maary St
Heliopolis Cairo
Egypt
Khaled Wahba
khaled.wahba@ riti.org
Cairo University
Faculty of Engineering
11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211
Egypt
Fran Ackermann
fran@ mansci.strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Dept of Management Science
40 George Street
Glasgow G1 1QE UK
Susan Howick
susan@ mansci.strath.ac.uk
University of Strathclyde
Department of Management Science
40 George Street
Glasgow G1 1QE UK
David F. Andersen
david andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
315B Milne Hall
135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA
Emmanuel D. Adamides
adamides@ mech.upatras.gr
University of Patras
Mechanical Eng & Aeronautics Rion
26500 Patras Greece
(S)
Nikolaos Pomonis
npomo@ yahoo.gr
University of Patras
Dpt Mechanical & Aeronautical Eng
IMIS Lab
26500 Patras Greece
22! International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Boosting the Egyptian Exports: Toward
Developing a Comprehensive System Dynamics
Based Tool for International Market Selection
Egyptian exports are not proportional to the efforts exerted to increase it, nor
to the potential of the Egyptian economy. Most of these efforts target the
laws and regulations related to export issues, which is not enough alone, as
there is a lack of efforts towards increasing the base of Egyptian exporters as
well as their effectiveness. There is a reluctance to engage in export business
among the major part of the Egyptian producers while the smaller part
engaging in export business lack the up-to-date knowledge and tools needed
to maximize the export benefits, as they just react to spontaneous orders
from international markets. The research will give a comprehensive advisory
guide for the exporting business and introduce the first step towards
achieving comprehensive systematic process to be used for selecting the
optimum international markets, by integrating international business aspects
with economic concepts in a dynamic system thinking approach. Since the
main concern of any exporter is the financial benefits and market share that
he will get from exporting, though the research output will identify the major
factors that affect the financial results of the product in the international
market under study and the way each factor affects these results.
Stirling Revisited: Practical Approaches to
Merging Two Systems Thinking Streams
The 1994 International System Dynamics Conference, held in Stirling,
reviewed a range of related Systems Thinking approaches. This paper
focuses on the specific approach described by Eden in Stirling and proposes
a number of guidelines that can be used to explicitly and formally link
Eden's Systems Thinking approaches to formal simulation models. The
specific case presented involves linking semantically rich scenario maps to a
formal causal influence diagram that was in turn used as the basis for a
formal simulation model. While the case reported on is quite specific, we
suggest that a broader range of complementary systems thinking approaches
can and should be integrated with more traditional SD simulation methods.
The specific case study reported on examines a scenario-based simulation of
the promotion of renewable energy sources in the UK electric power market.
This work also informs on-going research in group model building, strategy
modeling (especially using scenarios) and the on-going debate about
qualitative vs. quantitative system dynamics.
Embedding Game-Theoretic Concepts into System
Dynamics Models: The Case of Complementary
Products Development
The problem of mutual resource commitment during the development of
complementary products is modeled as an evolutionary Prisoner’s Dilemma
game. To investigate the effect of different pure and mixed cooperation
and/or defection strategies over the period of a technology cycle, a system
dynamics simulation model has been built using the resource-based view of
the firm. The dynamics of tangible and intangible assets, such as customer
base and technological learning, were included in the model. Cooperation
33
Papers continued
Yeoryios A. Stamboulis
ystambou@ uth.gr
University of Thessaly
Gallias 6
Volos 38221 Greece
Neveen Mohamed Mohamed
Ahmed
gilankabani@ hotmail.com
Egyptian Cabinet
7 El Edreasy St
Behind Heliopolis Sporting Club
Heliopolis Cairo Egypt
Khaled Wahba
khaled.wahba@ riti.org
Cairo University
Faculty of Engineering
11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211 Egypt
Henk A. Akkermans
henk@ minase.nl
Minase BV
PO Box 278 Fabrieksstraat la
5000 AG Tilburg
‘The Netherlands
Kim van Oorschot
kim@ minase.nl
Minase BV
Postbus 278 Fabriekstraat 1a
5000AG Tilburg
The Netherlands
Henk A. Akkermans
henk@ minase.nl
Minase BV
PO Box 278 Fabrieksstraat la
5000 AG Tilburg
‘The Netherlands
and defection payoffs have been assumed to be time-dependent. The model
was calibrated using data from the video games industry. Simulations run for
different complementors’ strategies show the importance of early
cooperation during technology cycles. The model can be used in an
interactive mode to evaluate more complex industry-specific strategies.
The Dynamics of Twin Crises in Asia: A
Comparison between the Egyptian and the
Indonesian Currency Crises
The study attempts to identify the extent of similarities, and/or differences
between the conditions that surrounded the Asian tigers economies from
1994-1999, and those in Egypt from 1998-2003. A generic “Business
Dynamics model” is developed, based on a simplified causal framework of
three main independent groups of variables; economic fundamentals, Real
and Financial links, and vulnerability indicators, the relevant data for
Indonesia is chosen for the simulation model. Although similar symptoms
between the two cases were identified, the origins for trouble were quite
different; while the Indonesian crisis was mainly attributable to the
combination of fixed exchange regime, moral hazard, and excessive
financial liberalization, the Egyptian economy has suffered a weak real
sector, undiversified and exogenously determined sources of hard currency,
and a long-lasting rigid exchange rate system. In summary, the authors
contend that even a floatation of the Egyptian pound has taken place, the
Egyptian currency crisis would not have been resolved, unless drastic
measures were to be taken to trouble shoot the other two main sources of
trouble; low levels of exports, and undiversified sources of dollar flows.
Time Will Tell: The Impact of Demand Cyclicality
and Supply Lead Times on Customer Order
Information Sharing in Supply Chains
Sharing of end customer information with suppliers is often cited as
adequate way of improving performance in decentralised supply chains, but
its effectiveness remains problematic in practice as well as in theory.
Benefits of information sharing appear to relatively limited and located
mainly with the supplier, not the buyer. This paper investigates if this mixed
picture is perhaps due to a number of implicit assumptions. Perhaps
customer information sharing is highly beneficial in some settings, and not
at all in others. If that is the case, then what are the factors that will tell if
information sharing is worthwhile? We introduce a generic system dynamics
simulation model of a supplier-buyer supply chain to investigate what
happens if these characteristics are changed. Here we find that cyclical
demand patterns as well longer lead times make sharing of end customer
order more advantageous for both the supplier and the buyer. If lead times
for both parties are short, information sharing yields little value to either
side.
(S)
Time for a Hundred Visions and Revisions: A
System Dynamics Study of the Impact of
Concurrent Engineering on Supply Chain
Performance
Concurrent engineering is now commonly seen as a fruitful approach to
shortening development times in product development. Concurrent
34 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Kim van Oorschot
kim@ minase.nl
Minase BV
Postbus 278 Fabriekstraat 1a
5000AG Tilburg.
The Netherlands
Lise Albrechtsen
lise.albrechtsen@ zo0.0x.ac.uk
University of Oxford
WildCRU Dept of Zoology
South Parks Road
Oxford OX1 3PS UK
John E. Fa
jfa@ durrell.org
Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust
Les Augrés Manor Trinity
Trinity Jersey JE3 SBP
English Channel Islands UK
Pal I. Davidsen
davidsen@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Information Science Department
Hermann Fossgt 6
5020 Bergen Norway
David W. Macdonald
david. macdonald@ zoo.0x.ac.uk
Wildlife Conservation Research Unit
Department of Zoology
South Parks Road
Oxford OX1 3JA UK
Monica A. Altamirano
ma.altamirano@ student.thm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Policy Analysis
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft The Netherlands
Cornelia van Daalen
c.vandaalen@ tbm.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Tech Policy and Mgt
PO Box 5015
2600 GA Delft The Netherlands
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
©)
engineering leads to earlier feedback and more intense communication
between the different stages in product development. But, what is its effect
on supply chain performance once the design that has thus been detailed out
has to be manufactured? This paper focuses on this question. It presents a
quantitative system dynamics study of a real-world case from the aerospace
industry. In aerospace, product development typically takes many years and
costs tens to hundred of millions. Our analysis suggests that concurent
engineering can have a major impact on performance in aerospace supply
chains, not just because production can start sooner and hence go down the
learning curve earlier, but also because early feedback from production leads
to improved designs during product development as well. These will then
need less rework once they enter into manufacturing.
Making Bushmeat Hunting Sustainable: Economic
Incentives or Draconian Measures?
Central African peoples have been and still are very dependent on the
natural resources they collect from the forest. One of these resources is wild
meat (bushmeat), which is hunted in large quantities. Offiake of several
species are currently higher than their reproduction rate. In the long run, this
will become a conservation crisis on the one hand with the possible
extinction of several endemic species, while on the other hand the survival
and quality of life of the people dependent on these resources are
jeopardized. A dynamic programming model is developed to introduce a
method to show explicitly the impact of different policies on the animal
population dynamics, the effectiveness of bushmeat hunting, price of
bushmeat in the market, and the availability of alternative work
opportunities for the hunters. The paper concludes with the simulation of
three different policy recommendations for managing bushmeat trade. The
model and its simulation show an interesting perspective of the complexity
of the wild meat extraction issue. No one single policy will be able to alter
the current pattern of unsustainable use — only a combination of policies and
other measures will have a chance of succeeding with the conservation of
the Central African fauna.
A System Dynamics Model of Primary and
Secondary Education in Nicaragua
A System Dynamics model of primary and secondary education in
icaragua has been developed to assist the National Ministry of Education
in analysing the system of schooling and investigating the impacts of
different possible policy decisions. The model shows that without a change
in policy there will only be a small increase in the percentage of primary and
high school coverage and that the number of illiterate people will more than
double over a period of twenty years. The consequences of various policies
have been investigated using the model. These policies include
implementing literacy programs and introducing a program in which
families in extreme poverty receive a subsidy. Preliminary results show that
by combining these two policies, an effect on school coverage as well as on
the number of illiterate people can be achieved.
35
Papers continued
David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
315B Milne Hall
135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA
Dawn M. Cappelli
dmc@ cert.org
Carnegie Mellon University
Software Engineering Institute
4500 Fifth Avenue
Pittsburgh PA 15213-3890 USA
José J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ hia.no
Agder University College
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Grooseveien 36
NO-4876 Grimstad Norway
Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh
mohammad@ attunegroup.com
Attune Group Inc
16 Regina Court Suite #1
Delmar NY 12054 USA
Andrew P. Moore
apm@ certorg
Carnegie Mellon University
CERT Coordination Center
4500 Fifth Avenue
Pittsburgh PA 15206 USA
Eliot Rich
exich@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Mgt Science and Info Systems
1400 Washington Avenue BA-310
Albany NY 12222 USA
Preliminary System Dynamics Maps of the Insider
Cyber-Threat Problem
Twenty five researchers from eight institutions and a variety of disciplines,
viz. computer science, information security, knowledge management, law
enforcement, psychology, organization science and system dynamics, found
each other February 2004 in the “System Dynamics Modelling for
Information Security: An Invitational Group Modeling Workshop” at
Software Engineering Institute, Carnegie Mellon University. The exercise
produced preliminary system dynamics models of insider and outsider cyber
attacks that motivated five institutions, viz. Syracuse University, TECNUN
at University of Navarra, CERT/CC at Carnegie Mellon University,
University at Albany and Agder University College, to launch an
interdisciplinary research proposal (Improving Organizational Security and
Survivability by Suppression of Dynamic Triggers). This paper discusses the
preliminary system dynamic maps of the insider cyber-threat and describes
the main ideas behind the research proposal.
Jose Maria Sarriegui Elise Axelrad Weaver
jmsarriegui@ tecnun.es eweaver@ wpi.edu
Universidad de Navarra Worcester Polytechnic Institute Dept
TECNUN Social Science and Policy Studies
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13 100 Institute Road
20018 San Sebastian Spain Worcester MA 01609-2280 USA
Timothy J. Shimeall
tjs@ cerLorg
CERT Coordination Center
Software Engineering Institute
4500 Fifth Avenue
Pittsburgh PA 15213-3890 USA
Aldo Zagonel
zagonel@ aol.com
Sandia National Laboratories
801 Locust NE #2160S.
Albuquerque NM 87102 USA
Jeffrey M. Stanton
jmstanto@ syr.edu
Syracuse University
School of Information Studies
Syracuse NY 13244 USA
36 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Fernando Arenas
farenas@ puj.edu.co
Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
()
Calle 18 118-250 Av Canas Gordas Pance
Cali Valle 017
Colombia
Stefano Armenia
armenia@ disp.uniroma?.it
Tor Vergata University Rome
Viale Politecnico 1
00133 Rome
Italy
Riccardo Onori
onori@ disp.uniroma? it
Tor Vergata University Rome
DISP Faculty of Engineering
Via del Politecnico 1
00133 Roma
Italy
Adriano Bertini
adriano.bertini@ libero.it
University of Rome Tor Vergata
via Fosso del Poggio 32/b
00189 Rome
Italy
Stefano Armenia
armenia@ disp.uniroma?.it
Tor Vergata University Rome
Viale Politecnico 1
00133 Rome Italy
Francesco Torino
torinotwins@ libero it
University of Rome Tor Vergata
via Parigi 34
00043 Ciampino Roma
Italy
Luigi Torino
torinotwins@ libero it
University of Rome Tor Vergata
via Parigi 34
00043 Ciampino Roma Italy
Access to Credit as a Limit to Growth for SME
Access to credit has been considered as one of the main problems that SMEs
have to deal with in order to survive and keep growing. This document
describes a system dynamics model based on the case of a medium-sized
manufacturing firm, located in Colombia, where the author worked as
operations manager, and subsequently as a consultant. The model integrates
the operations and finance of the firm including variables associated with
trade credit and banks credit. A sensitivity analysis is made in order to find
high leverage variables. The results obtained indicate that operational or
financial policies, when applied alone, are not sufficient to solve the firm
stagnation problem. An appropriate combination of access to credit, credit
conditions, and adequate financial and operational policies, is the unique
way to deal with the complex problem of SMEs survival and growing.
Bathtub Dynamics at the Tor Vergata University
in Rome, Italy
In a context of changes in education and Research, Systems Thinking
appears to be a valid alternative to help students speedup their learning
processes. Trying to validate such belief, Prof. Sterman has tested on his
MIT students both their understanding of systemic concepts without prior
knowledge of System Dynamics and their ability to improve learning skills
by a SD education. Other Universities have also taken up the challenge,
fitting it to their own educational environments, thus providing useful and
interesting data. Statistical analysis has been carried out on different groups
of students and has provided valuable information on their behaviour, as
well as an interesting collection of all the most frequent and typical mistakes
or misunderstandings that helped us in clustering the rationales beyond
them. However, very few has been done according to inquiring about such
rationales or even about difficulties that students have found in confronting
themselves with the tests. May SD help students in devising correct
solutions? Does a particular academic background help or improve one’s
ability to think sistemically? We have directly asked the students such
questions, inquiring about which logic processes they followed in text
comprehension and graph understanding and if SD constituted an effective
aid or instead it was only "another confusing" tool which didn’t add much to
their counterintuitive and non-linear system analysis skills.
A System Dynamics Approach to a Chemist's
Inventory and Finance Management
A Chemist’s can be considered in many countries as a Small Enterprise and
it constitutes a complex business environment where several different and
mutually dependent issues, technical, economic and financial, may be
dentified. The growing complexity of an SME environment and the use of
traditional analysis techniques, don't allow for an effective forecast of a
behavioural dynamics of the entire system. The need for coordination among
the many management issues give enormous evidence to the important need
of correctly planning, in the light of collegial decision making, all of the
enterprise’s activities, as well as understanding the underlying dynamics due
to the firm’s internal structure. Thanks to the new IT Technologies, the
Chemist has the great opportunity to use such data in order to optimally
drive his strategic and operational management decisions. Towards this end,
the implementation of specific management control/decision support
systems, based on SD models, allow first for a better learning of the
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England SF
Papers continued
Riccardo Onori
onori@ disp.uniroma? it
Tor Vergata University Rome
DISP Faculty of Engineering
Via del Politecnico 1
00133 Roma Italy
Alessandro Signorini
a.signorini@ sps-company.it
American University of Rome
Via Carnaro 24 Int 2
00141 Rome Italy
Necdet Serhat Aybat
serhataybat@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University
Zohtopasa Mah Asim Us Soc
Moti Ap No 313 D 11 Kadikoy
Istanbul Turkey
Sinem Daysal
sinem_daysal@ hotmail.com
Bogazici University
Haci Izzet Pasa Sok Mutlu Apt No 7
5 Kabatas
Istanbul Turkey
Burcu Tan
burcu.tan@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University
Hisarustu Mahallesi 6
Sokak 23/2 Rumelihisarustu
Istanbul Turkey
Fulden Topaloglu
Bjorn Tallak Bakken
btbakken@ fil.mil.no
Norwegian Defence Leadership Inst
Oslo mil/Akershus
NO-0015 Oslo Norway
Martin Gilljam
jmg@ ffi.no
Norwegian Defence Research Est
PO Box 25
NO-2027 Kjeller Norway
Thorvald Haerem
thorvald.haerem@ bi.no
Norwegian School of Management
PO Box 580
NO-1302 Sandvika Norway
Bjorn Tallak Bakken
btbakken@ fil.mil.no
Norwegian Defence Leadership Inst
Oslo mil/Akershus
NO-0015 Oslo
Norway
environmental dynamics which influence the economic behaviour of the
firm, and second, for a deep understanding of the results of the decisional
policies which the Chemist himself, together with his collaborating staff,
may choose among a plethora of strategic choices.
Decision Making Tests with Different Variations of
The Stock Management Game
This study aims to demonstrate and recognize the systematic errors
underlying the decision making behavior of subjects by analyzing the results
of controlled experiments. An interactive stock management game;
inventory management game is used as the experimental medium, in which
the order decision is the only player input in the simplest case. The dynamic-
complexity is gradually increased by adding delay and secondary stock. In
two sets of experiments, the effect of increasing dynamic complexity is
analyzed with respect to three response variables. ANOVA results of these
2-factor, 2-level experiments revealed that as the clarity of feedback is
reduced with increasing dynamic complexity, subjects’ performances
decline. Majority of subjects had difficulties in controlling the inventory via
a secondary stock even when the external conditions are at steady state. The
presence of delay has a statistically significant effect on each response
variable.
Perception and Handling of Complex Problems in
Dynamic Settings: Three Cases of Relevance to
Military Command and Crisis Management
Command of military operations requires leaders and teams who are able to
make decisions and respond in an appropriate, timely manner even in highly
uncertain situations. The degree of situational uncertainty has continued to
increase as military requirements have evolved in response to changing
conditions around the world and advances in information systems that have
made more information available. To provide a basis for better
understanding of the dynamics of operations, we suggest an approach
linking Effects Based Operations (EBO) modelling and analysis with
System Dynamics (SD) principles, yielding valuable insights in the
complexity of modern warfare and conflict resolution. To illustrate our
approach, we present the following dynamic cases: 1) operational logistics,
2) strategic investments, and 3) crisis management.
The System Dynamics Approach to Network
Centric Warfare and Effects Based Operations:
Designing a "Learning Lab" for Tomorrow
Command of military operations requires leaders and teams who are able to
make decisions and respond in an appropriate, timely manner even in highly
uncertain situations. The degree of situational uncertainty has continued to
38 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Morten Ruud
morten.ruud@ sikt.net
Norwegian Defence Leadership Inst
Eidesaasen 103
5750 Odda
Norway
Stig Johannessen
sjohanne@ fsaf.mil.no
Norwegian Defence Leadership Institute
Oslo mil Akershus
NO-0015 Oslo
Norway
Bent Erik Bakken
beerikba@ online.no
Norwegian Defence Research Est
PO Box 25
NO-2027 Kjeller
Norway
Gabriele Bammer
gabriele.bammer@ anu.edu.au
Australian National University
NCEPH
0200 Canberra ACT
Australia
Vincent P. Barabba
vbarabba@ sbeglobal.net
Market Insight Corporation
308 Cherry Avenue
Capitola CA 95010
USA
Mark Paich
m.paich@ att.net
Decisio Consulting Inc
201 Linden Street 3202
Fort Collins CO 80524
USA
)
increase as military requirements have evolved in response to changing
conditions around the world and advances in information systems that have
made more information available. It is in the light of recently developed, but
not yet matured, concepts such as Network Centric Warfare (NCW) and
Effects Based Operations (EBO), we discuss the radically changed
conditions for acting and learning in the military operational environment.
We suggest a new approach, linking the principles of best practice EBO
modelling and analysis with system dynamic insights, yielding design
requirements for a “learning lab” for Network Centric Operations. The
purpose of the learning lab would be, through man-machine and inter-team
interaction, to improve mental models of commanders and teams, and thus
improved outcomes of future operations.
The Atlantic Defense Technology Gap: Will It Be
Closed?
US defence budgets are about 60 % higher than EU’s. In terms of advanced
military hardware, US inventory is however five to ten times bigger. A
System Dynamics simulation model is built to explore policies for closing
this so-called technology gap. In a base case scenario, the Atlantic divide
concerning military hardware continues to grow. Three policy tests are run:
EU defence budgets are increased by 60 % to US levels; EU transforms its
forces to expeditionary non-conscription units; European military industry is
consolidated combined with a tripling of R&D efforts. Neither policy is
successful alone, yet with all three policies combined, the gap is
significantly reduced and in about twenty-five years marginally closed. The
political likelihood of such a combined policy is discussed. It is argued that
since the EU favours a softer security strategy, it will not want to bear the
high political costs of this combined policy. Consequently, the EU will have
to be content filling the western world’s soft power niche.
Building a New Specialization of Integration and
Implementation Sciences: Would System
Dynamics Fit?
The theory and methods of integration across disciplines and sectors and of
implementation of research into practice need substantial development. I
suggest they would benefit from becoming an academic specialization,
analogous to statistics. Such a new specialization would draw on systems
thinking, participatory methods, complexity science, diverse epistemologies,
and inter- and trans-disciplinarity. I argue that understanding system
dynamics would be a cornerstone of a new specialisation. The aim of this
paper is to stimulate discussion both about such a specialisation and about
the role of system dynamics in it.
Impact of Context in Selecting Decision Tools for
use in Both the Public and Private Sectors
An important first step towards “bringing coherence and consensus to public
policy making” is to ensure there is coherence and consensus in how
decision makers view the context surrounding the decision to be made. The
paper describes three prototypical approaches that distinguish alternative
points of view in considering a decision’s context. The approaches anchor
the ends of a continuum that encompasses the worlds of simplicity/certainty
and complexity/uncertainty as well as a midpoint that offers a point of view
to help clarify the opportunities found at the ends of the continuum. The
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 39
Papers continued
Yaman Barlas
ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazigi University
Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul
Turkey
Mehmet Giinhan Ozevin
gozevin@ ford.com.tr
Ford Otomotiv Sanayi AS
Izmit Gélciik Yolu 14 Km Ihsaniye
41670 Gélciik Kocaeli
Turkey
Federico Barnabé
barnabe@ unisi.it
University of Siena
Dept of Business Studies
Piazza San Francesco u 8
53100 Siena Italy
Pawel Bartoszezuk
bartosz@ ibspan.waw.pl
System Research Institute
Newelska 6
01447 Warsaw
Poland
three prototypical designs are captured by the terms: make-and-sell, sense-
and-respond, and anticipate-and-lead. To demonstrate the impact of the
mindset of context on decisions tool choice, an example using agent-based
systems dynamics modeling to address questions related to the acculturation
of the Hispanic population in the United States will be presented.
Analysis of Stock Management Gaming
Experiments and Alternative Ordering
Formulations
This paper investigates two different yet related research questions about
stock management in feedback environments: The first one is to analyze the
effects of selected experimental factors on the performances of subjects
(players) in a stock management simulation game. In light of these results,
our second objective is to evaluate the adequacy of standard decision rules
typically used in dynamic stock management models and to seek
improvement formulations. To carry out the research, the generic stock
management problem is chosen as the interactive gaming platform. In the
first part, gaming experiments are designed to test the effects of three factors
on decision making behavior: different patterns of customer demand,
minimum possible order decision (‘review’) interval and finally the type of
the receiving delay. ANOVA results of these 3-factor, 2-level experiments
show which factors have significant effects on ten different measures of
behavior (such as max-min range of orders, inventory amplitudes, periods of
oscillations and backlog durations). In the second phase of research, the
performances of subjects are compared against some selected ordering
heuristics (formulations).
From Ivory Towers to Learning Organizations:
The Role of System Dynamics in the
"Managerialization" of Academic Institutions
Higher Education organisations face today strong pressure to adopt renewed
structures and management systems. Efficiency, efficacy and market
principles have become common words within the University and
management practices and principles are migrating to the academic context,
boosting a process of “managerialization”. However, preliminary results
show that the new policies adopted by university managements have led to
counter-intuitive and undesired results, thus adding further ambiguity to the
understanding of the dynamics existing within the HE sector. This paper
explores the role that System Dynamics could play in the
“managerialization” of universities. System Dynamics tools could allow
academic decision makers to better keep under control the complex and
dynamic university environment: in these terms, the paper suggests the use
of modeling and simulation techniques in order to capture the complex and
dynamic structure of the university system and to explore the consequences
of the policies and decisions that academic managements are currently
taking.
A System Dynamics Model of Economic Growth
with Environmental Aspects
Our objective is to foster the understanding of the economic, natural, and
social components - that make up the global system. We apply SD modeling
methodology and conduct our simulation with system dynamics software.
We investigate five major trends of global concern: rapid population growth.
40 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Andrea Bassi
4141@ stud liuc.it
Bassi snc
via Jean de Fernex 5
Olgiate Olona VA 21057
Italy
Steffen Bayer
s.bayer@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Tanaka Business School
South Kensington Campus
London SW7 2AZ UK
David Gann
Ammon Salter
Steffen Bayer
s.bayer@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Tanaka Business School
London SW7 2AZ UK
James Barlow
j-barlow@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Business School
London SW7 2AZ UK
)
Industrialization, deteriorating environment and depletion of nonrenewable
resources. We list the important and causal relationships and trace the
feedback loop structures. In describing an economic and environmental
model we focus on the relationship among income, pollution, and non-
renewable resources. This paper yields insight into the possibilities for
replacing non- renewable fossil fuels with more renewable ones. Next, we
present the simulation runs of the model, conducted with the help of existing
system dynamics modeling tools.
Strategic Analysis Evolution: Scenario Planning
and Simulation Based on the Methodology of
System Dynamics
The present study is aimed at developing the optimal instruments for
dispelling the uncertainty factors during the formulation of strategies for
corporate development. The objective is the creation of a complete model of
strategic analysis, which encompasses both the environment (internal and
external) and the management rational component. This model — built on the
analysis of three business ca: is concretized by a simulation for testing
the strategy by the means of software which enables the users to cope with a
dynamic and complex corporate environment. The research questions regard
the development of a complete strategic analysis, which covers the entire
decision-making process; the concrete assessment of the business strategy on
the basis of quantitative data; the identification and enhancement of the
critical variables of business administration, in such a complex and dynamic
reality as the corporate environment.
Is the Madness Home Made?: Examining Internal
Causes of Workload Fluctuation in Project
Enterprises
A common challenge for project enterprises is a fluctuation in workload:
periods of low capacity utilisation are followed by periods characterised by
an excessive workload when "fire-fighting" becomes a standard activity and
catching-up to demanding project schedules increasingly difficult. The
variation in workload of a project enterprise over time is influenced by
changes in the demand for its services and products. However, the external
environment does not provide a comprehensive explanation of workload
dynamics. This presentation concentrates on the internal causes of workload
fluctuation. Using a simple, highly stylised simulation model of business
processes within an architectural practice we examine how the typical
bidding behaviour (in particular the time allocation to project acquisition and
execution) creates workload fluctuations even within a smooth, benign
market environment.
Assessing the Impact of a Care Innovation:
Telecare
The provision of health and social care for an increasing elderly population
is a challenge facing many societies. Telecare, the delivery of health and
social care to individuals within the home or wider community, with the
support of ICT systems, has been advocated as an approach to reduce the
rise of the number of elderly people in institutional care and to contain costs.
This presentation uses a system dynamic model to investigate the systemic
impact of the implementation of telecare. A dynamic model is required to
understand the consequences of implementation over time. The presentation
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 41
Papers continued
Richard Curry
richard.curry@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Business School
London SW7 2AZ UK
Walt Beyeler
webeyel@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800
Albuquerque NM 87185-0451
USA
Theresa Brown
tibrown@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 0451
Albuquerque NM 87185-0451
USA
Carmine Bianchi
bianchi@ unipa.it
University of Palermo
Faculty of Political Sciences
Piazza A Gentili c/o CUSA
90143 Palermo Italy
Carmine Bianchi
bianchi@ unipa it
University of Palermo
Faculty of Political Sciences
Piazza A Gentili c/o CUSA
90143 Palermo Italy
cautions against overoptimistic expectations of the impact of telecare in the
short term and emphasises that the benefits of implementation will only
become fully effective with a significant delay.
Assessing Economic Impacts of Infrastructure
Disruptions: Comparison of Input/Output and
System Dynamics Approaches
The DIISA team provides modeling and simulation capabilities for
analyzing critical infrastructures and their interdependencies. We use system
dynamics to improve understanding of systems under unusual, disrupted
conditions and to evaluate potential economic consequences. DIISA
simulation capabilities provide an alternative to the input/output (I/O)
models commonly used to propagate perturbations through the economic
interconnections binding diverse sectors and regions. I/O models
misestimate losses due to disruptions in low-cost critical infrastructure
services because they use historical data reflecting normal production to
characterize interdependencies. Responses to demand changes predicated on
long-term equilibrium production functions are unlikely to capture reactions
to acute disruption. System dynamics provides a better basis for estimating
economic consequences of sudden changes in availability or cost of input
factors and the potential effectiveness of mitigation. Our poster contrasts I/O
and systems dynamics approaches to estimating economic impacts of
infrastructure disruptions, using several idealized examples to illustrate the
differences.
Implementing Dynamic Balanced Scorecards to
Link Strategy and Execution: Methodological
Issues
In spite of its merits, the classic “balanced scorecard” has a number of
drawbacks, which can be summarized as follows: - feedback loops, delays
and non-linearities are not made explicit; - dynamic relationships between
strategic initiatives, “lead”, “lag” indicators and strategic objectives are not
explored; - cause-and-effect relationships between financial, customer,
internal and learning & growth dimensions are not analyzed; - strategic
assets and other relevant factors impacting on “lead” and “lag” indicators are
not defined. This is likely to make difficult and superficial the analysis; -
policy levers on which decision makers may act to affect strategic assets, in
order to impact on business performance are not made explicit; - simulation
is not an option. This paper tries to develop a methodology based on System
Dynamics modelling to support the creation of effective balanced
scorecards.
Innovative Strategies to Teach System Dynamics
Applied to Business Growth Management in a
Post-Graduate University Context
This paper outlines main ideas underlying a Masters Programme launched
this year at the University of Palermo on the following subject: "Managing
business growth through System Dynamics and Accounting Models. A
strategic control perspective". The Master programme aims to educate
42 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Enzo Bivona
enzobivona@ sciepol.unipa.it
University of Palermo
Faculty of Political Sciences
Via Maqueda 324
90100 Palermo Italy
Luca Raimondi
raimondi@ economia.unipa.it
University of Palermo
via Notarbartolo 2
90141 Palermo Italy
Carmine Bianchi
bianchi@ unipa it
University of Palermo
Faculty of Political Sciences
Piazza A Gentili_ c/o CUSA
90143 Palermo Italy
Enzo Bivona
enzobivona@ sciepol.unipa.it
University of Palermo
Faculty of Political Sciences
Via Maqueda 324
90100 Palermo Italy
Peter Biber
peter.biber@ Irz.tum.de
Technische Universitaet Muenchen
am Hochanger 13
85354 Freising
Germany
Hans Dieter Kasperidus
hans.kasperidus@ ufz.de
UFZ Leipzig Halle
Dept Urban Regions
Permoserstr 15
D-04318 Leipzig
Germany
experts in business growth management, with particular reference to the
contexts of small-medium enterprises (SMEs) and Public Administrations.
Innovating teaching strategies are outlined and main results are discussed.
Giovan Battista Montemaggiore
montemaggiore@ economia.unipa.it
University of Palermo
Via del Segugio 8
90125 Palermo Italy
Using System Dynamics ILE's to Enhance
Intellectual Capital Policies in Service Businesses
Knowledge is a primary strategic asset impacting on business growth. It
significantly affects the accumulation of other strategic resources. Assessing
knowledge is, therefore, a substantial activity to support policy makers in
balancing trade-offs related to different alternatives in business growth
management. Several approaches have been suggested by the business
literature and practices to assess knowledge; also the System dynamics
method has been applied to this issue. This paper tries to contribute to the
research debate in this domain by focusing the concept of Intellectual
Capital (IC) and exploring cause-and-effect relationships underlying its
dynamics and business growth. Such relationships are embodied in an ILE
that has been tailored to the context of a service business, where knowledge
plays a crucial role for the firm success and continuity. In particular, the
generic structure of the ILE has been applied to a telecom mobile service
provider and to an insurance company. The first context offered the basis for
the application of the ILE into an educational setting; the second one
provided the arena where a business application was developed. Main key-
issues underlying model development and the ILE application are discussed
in the paper, and some significant outcomes from simulations are
commented.
Integrated Modeling Approaches and System
Dynamics in Education Related to Sustainable
Resource Management, Forestry, and Land Use
Management
The School of Forest Science and Resource Management at Technische
Universitit Miinchen, Germany, offers two different streams of education.
These are education in Forest Science and in the newly (2001) founded
international master course Sustainable Resource Management (SRM). With
the SRM program, the organisers put more emphasis in education on
teaching systems thinking and practice system dynamics skills to increase
the number of qualified academics in this field. Thus, resource management
and forestry education included and improved system dynamics (SD) and
modeling issues in their curricula. The goal is to improve the student’s
systems thinking skills to enable them applying resource management and
foresty highly based on systems principles. This paper describes the
structure of the courses and demonstrates, which aspects of SD, modelling
and models are currently used for which purpose in these fields of education.
We also show our experiences up to now and present our conclusions and
future perspectives.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 43
Papers continued
Thomas Binder
binder@ inb.uni-luebeck.de
University of Luebeck
Inst for Neuro and Bioinformatics
Ratzeburger Allee 160
23538 Luebeck
Germany
Andreas Vox
vox@ isp.uni-luebeck.de
Universitaet Luebeck
Ratzeburger Allee 160
D-23538 Luebeck
Germany
Mats G. Svensson
mats.svensson@ chemeng.th.se
Lund University
Centre for Environmental Studies MICLU
PO Box 170
S-22100 Lund
Sweden
Adel Belmon Bishara
adelbishara@ yahoo.com
Vodafone Egypt
25 Mohamed Sabri Abou Alm St
Heliopolis Cairo
Egypt
Khaled Wahba
khaled.wahba@ riti.org
Cairo University
Faculty of Engineering
11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211 Egypt
Alexander B. Blinov
blinov@ suctuu.ru
South Urals Cellular Telephone
161 Kirova Street
Chelyabinsk 454000 Russia
Andrey I. Koblov
akoblov@ suct.ru
South-Urals State University
Lenina avenue 76
Chelyabinsk 454080 Russia
Vladimir I. Shiryaev
vis@ prima.susu.ac.ru
South-Urals State University
Dept of Applied Mathematics
pr Lenina 76
454080 Chelyabinsk Russia
Developing System Dynamics Models from Causal
Loop Diagrams
In this paper we discuss how a Causal Loop diagram (CLD) can be labeled
and structured incrementally in order to finally transform it into a Stock and
Flow diagram. A CLD does not contain enough information to describe a
model uniquely. Hence the decisions on how to transform the CLD cannot
be made automatically; they must be based on information about the
modeled system. We describe a general set of possible transformation steps
and offer guidance on when to choose which step. Some suggesting
simplifications of the general setting will be discussed and illustrated by an
example. The main application area of the described interactive algorithm is
software development. However, it might also give suggestions on the
reorganization of the system dynamics workflow.
3rd Generation Mobile Technology Impacts on
Profitability: A System Dynamics Approach
Mobile operators in Egypt are facing a number of challenges due to the
decline of the average revenue per user combined with local currency
devaluation yielding to a difficult business position. Additionally, the
ongoing competition between the existing two operators MobiNil since 1997
and Vodafone Egypt since 1998, the challenges are mounting. The
competition adds more pressures on existing operators to differentiate their
services and introduce innovative solutions to maintain their competitive
edge. Therefore, newly diffused technologies with diversified revenue
channels are needed. This paper documents the findings of a study
conducted in 2003 investigating the possibility of using the 3rd Generation
mobile services as a tool for generating additional revenues and accordingly
profits to mobile operators. To support the findings a system dynamics
approach has been conducted to capture the dynamics of the current industry
to help explain its profitability.
Modeling the Mobile Service Market of the Region
and a Control Problems Solution
The paper presents a system dynamics approach to analysis and considers
the model of the mobile service competitive market. The model includes a
dynamic competition between two major operators, dominant operator and
the others. Their market share concerning the number of subscribers is
influenced by the pricing policy, service quality, subscriber base, potential
subscribers, marketing, etc. The method for identification of the market
carrying capacity is considered. The problem of optimal management for
price is formulated. The obtained results can be used in research to forecast
and improve decision making in real dynamic systems.
224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
J. Robert Bois
bob.bois@ maxwell.af.mil
USAF Air Command and Staff College
225 Chennault Circle
Maxwell AFB AL 36112
USA
Andrei Borshchev
andrei@ xjtek.com
XJ Technologies
21 Polytechnicheskaya St Office 102
St Petersburg 194021
Russia
Alexei Filippov
alf@ xjtek.com
XJ Technologies
21 Polytechnicheskaya St Office 102
St Petersburg 194021
Russia
Rafael E. Bourguet-Diaz
bourguet@ itesm.mx
ITESM Campus Monterrey
Department of Systems Engineering
Av Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL Mexico
©)
(S)
Decision Support within Complex Systems: An
Experimental Approach Using the Stratagem-2
Computer Game
In 1989, John Sterman published his seminal paper, Misperceptions of
Feedback in Dynamic Decision Making. His misperception of feedback
hypothesis deals with the difficulty people have in managing complex
environments. Over time, several authors have attempted to consider how
human failures, which are a prominent part of the misperception of feedback
hypothesis, can be reduced. However, these authors have achieved mixed
results in attempting to make improvements to human decision support. It is
the purpose of the current research to provide meaningful decision support to
managers of complex environments. Specifically, the research used the
STRATEGEM-2 simulation game and developed a decision support method
designed to improve human performance. The experiment required subjects
to make a single decision within a dynamic system where the task involved
feedback delays, nonlinearity of system processes, positive feedback loops,
and multiple cues. The decision support included a decision rule and a newly
developed game instruction designed to improve participant knowledge and
information about the microeconomy of STRATEGEM-2. Results of the
research have discovered that the new instruction and the decision support
tule produced significant results in improving decision making.
Additionally, this research demonstrates that the lack of participant
motivation levels can mask decision support interventions.
From System Dynamics and Discrete Event to
Practical Agent Based Modeling: Reasons,
Techniques, Tools
This paper may be considered as a practical reference for those who wish to
add (now sufficiently matured) Agent Based modeling to their analysis
toolkit and may or may not have some System Dynamics or Discrete Event
modeling background. We focus on systems that contain large numbers of
active objects (people, business units, animals, vehicles, or even things like
projects, stocks, products, etc. that have timing, event ordering or other kind
of individual behavior associated with them). We compare the three major
paradigms in simulation modeling: System Dynamics, Discrete Event and
Agent Based Modeling with respect to how they approach such systems. We
show in detail how an Agent Based model can be built from an existing
System Dynamics or a Discrete Event model and then show how easily it
can be further enhanced to capture much more complicated behavior,
dependencies and interactions thus providing for deeper insight in the
system being modeled. Commonly understood examples are used
throughout the paper; all models are specified in the visual language
supported by AnyLogicTM tool. We view and present Agent Based
modeling not as a substitution to older modeling paradigms but as a useful
add-on that can be efficiently combined with System Dynamics and Discrete
Event modeling. Several multi-paradigm model architectures are suggested.
Design of a Community Learning for System
Dynamics
Shown the objectives, model, functional structure and elements plants in the
design of a knowledge community. This proposal of the design is motivated
by the need to work and facilitation of the learning in a collaborative way for
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 45
Papers continued
Gloria Pérez Salazar
gloria.perez@ itesm.mx
ITESM Campus Monterrey
Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
Av E Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL Mexico
Jeffrey Boyer
jboyer01@ nycap.rr.com
Plug Power Inc
10 Sonya Place
Niskayuna NY 12309
USA
John Elter
john_elter@ plugpower.com
Plug Power Inc
968 Albany Shaker Road
Latham NY 12110
USA
Jeffrey Boyer
jboyer01@ nycap.rr.com
Plug Power Inc
10 Sonya Place
Niskayuna NY 12309
USA
Berndt Brehmer
berndt.brehmer@ fhs.mil.se
Swedish National Defence College
PO Box 27805
SE-115 93 Stockholm
Sweden
the members of the community of systems dynamics in Latin America in the
fields of investigation, teaching labors, and consulting. The objective is to
effectively to attend the demands in: actualization of contents related with
the subject in the Industrial Engineering career, the design of contents in
Politic Science Master programs, reinforcement of investigation lines in the
ITESM, and the application of models for government and industry. The
article concludes with the discussion about possible benefits to apply
administration knowledge in the question design.
Using Simulations to Define the Product
Development Strategy Expected to Achieve the
Shortest Time to Profitability
Small entrepreneurial companies are challenged by the need to achieve
profitability rapidly with limited resources. Such companies often face an
uncertain prime product path; consequently, resources must be allocated
among multiple products or platforms as the company establishes market
demands. These allocations must be made within the context of the newness
and complexity of the technology and products, uncertainty in market
adoption rates, and unknowns in maturation of the supply chain. A system
model is proposed that will identify a product introduction strategy that
minimizes the time to profitability given the constraints of fixed resources
and assumptions regarding key parameters such as product development
time and costs, market adoption rates, and cost learning curves. This model
compares a product product platform strategy with launching multiple point
products unrelated by a technology platform. By accounting for product
lifecycles, the model considers parallel and serial product development.
Understanding the Influence of "Not Invented
Here" and "Blind Faith" on the Implementation of
Innovations
Repenning’s1] innovation adoption model demonstrated the need for balance
between perceptions of success and management support through
commitment, patience, careful resource deployment, and control of the
speed of implementation. Two factors are added to the model: the tenure of
the manager who champions the innovation, and the use of objective,
quantifiable success metrics. The “Not Invented Here” effect suggests long-
time employees resist processes not championed by individuals with similar
experiences and tenure within the company, thereby slowing
implementation. Royer’s2 “Blind Faith” effect results when perception of
success is more positive than objective metrics would support, thereby
allowing implementation to continue despite little real success.
Implementation of a Technology Development Process at a small company
is simulated. It is shown that championing of new innovations by long-term
members of the organization shortens the time to complete implementation.
Objective metrics either accelerate implementation or support
discontinuation of unsuccessful implementation projects.
Achieving What Cannot Be Done: Coping with the
Time Constants in a Dynamic Decision Task
This study examines how people handle the time constants in dynamic tasks,
using a firefighting simulation. The participants did not discriminate
between fires requiring different number of units if they were not allowed to
move any units before the fire started. If they were allowed to do so,
46 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Staffan Nahlinder
staffan.nahlinder@ foi.se
Swedish Defence Research Agency
PO Box 1165
SE-581 11 Linképing
Sweden
Klaus Breuer
Klaus.breuer@ uni-mainz.de
Johannes-Gutenberg-Univ Mainz
FB03-Wirtschaftspaedagogik
D-55099 Mainz
Germany
René Molkenthin
rene.molkenthin@ uni-mainz.de
Johannes-Gutenberg-University of Mainz
Jakob Welder-Weg 9
55128 Mainz
Germany
Newton Paulo Bueno
npbueno@ ufv.br
Federal University of Vigosa
Dept de Economia Campus Universitario
36571-000 Vigosa Minas Gerais
Brazil
Rosa Maria Olivera Fontes
rfontes@ ufv.br
Federal University of Vigosa
Centro de Ciéncias Humanas
36571-000 Vigosa Minas Gerais
Brazil
Deborah Campbell
deborah-campbell@ comcast.net
University of Bergen
Peter S. Hovmand
phovmand@ wustl.edu
Washington University in St Louis
GWB School of Social Work
One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
Saint Louis MO 63130 USA
performance improved. This suggests that the participants did not learn the
time constants, and that they used the heuristic to preposition the units to
avoid having to do so. Using such heuristics may well be how people handle
dynamic tasks also in other circumstances. More effort should therefore be
put into studying what people actually do in dynamic tasks, and not only into
whether or not they perform optimally.
Approaches to Diagnostic Business Simulations
System-dynamics based micro-worlds in general hold no diagnostic features.
However, these could be extremely valuable for giving feedback within
learning processes and for the adaptive adjustment of micro-world based
learning environments. This could be applied too for evaluating the level of
performance at which participants can act when they have to control a given
scenario by means of interventions into the system. For setting up such
diagnostic systems it needs a theoretical foundation. In that respect we refer
to the approaches of complex-problem solving theory as well as to Cognitive
Complexity Theory in order to reflect on their potential use for grounding
diagnostic SD-based simulations. There is a prototype of such a diagnostic
business simulation under development which shall be available within the
presentation.
The Principle of Acceleration and Investment in
Developing Countries: A Discussion Based on
System Dynamics Methodology
The purpose of the article is to formulate a more realistic version of the
accelerator-multiplier model, based on systems dynamics methodology. In
the present version, the accelerator is flexible and the model presents
dynamic stability for much wider intervals of the marginal propensity to
consume, in comparison to the original formulation. Based on VENSIM
model simulations, we also intend to evaluate if the mechanism can be
useful to inform economic policies in developing countries such as Brazil.
Is Your Organization Collegiality-Challenged?:
A Case Study Demonstrating the Effect of
Unconscious Gender Bias
Most people conceptualize gender bias in terms of individual behavior
men discriminating against women. This creates a tendency for men to feel
personally blamed for gender bias. Yet feminist theories emphasize that
gender bias is the resulting behavior of a cultural system, not individuals,
and this system influences the behavior of both men and women. System
dynamics has often been used to understand the systemic nature of social
problems and clarify social theory, but has not yet been applied to a feminist
theory of gender bias. Using a simple organizational case study, we describe
and explore a feminist theory of the systemic nature of gender bias with
system dynamics. The paper introduces key concepts, demonstrates how
system dynamics clarifies the theory’s systemic issues and potential
solutions, and suggests how this new way to view gender bias might
improve the collegiality of our personal and professional relationships for
the long term.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 47
Papers continued
Carlos Capelo
carlos.capelo@ galpenergia.com
ISCTE
Aldeamento Vale Sao Giao
Avenida das Acacias 50 lote 78
2665-381 Milharado Portugal
Joao Ferreira Dias
fdias@ iscte.pt
ISCTE
CACIFO 238-B
Av Forcas Armadas
1600-083 Lisboa Portugal
Annick Castiaux
annick.castiaux@ fundp.ac.be
University of Namur
Business Administration Department
8 Rempart de la Vierge
B-5000 Namur Belgium
Robert Y. Cavana
bob.cavana@ vuw.ac.nz
Victoria University of Wellington
PO Box 600
Wellington New Zealand
David Boyd
david.boyd@ nzdf.mil.nz
New Zealand Defence Force
Headquarters
Private Bag
Wellington New Zealand
Richard Taylor
richard.taylor@ nadf.mil.nz
New Zealand Defence Force
Human Resources Executive
Army General Staff Private Bag 39997
Wellington New Zealand
Scenario Planning and Evaluation of Pricing
Strategies in the Portuguese Bulk LPG Market
Portugal has the largest LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) share of primary
energy demand in the EU (about 5%). Due to the increasing international
cost of LPG in the last years and the high price sensitivity of the consumers
the preference for substitute energy sources in new and existing consumers
has been increasing. To select the kind of energy, some consumer estimate
and compare the total costs while others follow agents (equipment sellers)
recommendations. It takes time to build agents perception about the most
advantageous source of energy, which is seen as an important resource that
drives client resource accumulation and retention. Marketing strategies have
to take into consideration some market dynamic effects derived from the
accumulation and depletion of these resources. A simple system dynamics
model was built, combined with Economic Value Added framework, to
evaluate some pricing strategies under different scenarios of LPG
international cost.
Inter-Organizational Learning: Lotka-Volterra
Modeling of Different Relationships
AS the creation of new knowledge by an organisation is the key factor to
allow radical innovation, and as radical innovation ability demonstrates
increasing importance to face environmental upheavals, the understanding of
the mechanisms favouring knowledge acquisition is of prime importance. In
this paper, we try to understand some of the mechanisms that govern
knowledge creation and transfer through the relationships developed
between organisations. Our approach is based on system dynamics
modelling with Lotka-Volterra set of equations. This approach is a first step
in a research dedicated to the study of complex adaptive systems, a well-
suited framework to understand the influence of inter-organisational
relationships on various charcteristics responsible for organisaional learning
and growth.
A Systems Thinking Study of the New Zealand
Army Electronic Technician Trade Group
Since the mid-1990s, the New Zealand Army has experienced difficulty
retaining personnel in the Electronic Technician trade. The problem will be
exacerbated by the Army’s force modernisation programme, as the
introduction of new technologies into service will place increasing demands
on this diminishing specialist trade group. In late 2002 and early 2003, a
qualitative system dynamics study was undertaken to establish a better
understanding of the causal factors of poor retention, their interconnections
and complex relationships, and to identify leverage points to develop a turn-
around strategy. This involved using systems thinking concepts to work with
the different stakeholder groups associated with the electronics trade group,
to develop mental models based on the soldiers perception of the system in
which they serve. Separate group model building workshops were held with
the apprentices, tradespeople, management, and external stakeholders. The
shared mental models (or causal loop diagrams) developed for each internal
stakeholder group were combined. This was used as the basis for the
analysis of leverage points within the system, and to facilitate the
development of action plans for the trade group. The paper will outline this
systems thinking study and the subsequent implementation of the
recommendations.
48 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Yao-Tsung Chen
ytchen@ mail.iis.sinica.edu.tw
Academia Sinica
Institute of Information Science
No 128 Sec 2 Yanjiouyuan Road
Taipei City 115
Taiwan
Bingchiang Jeng
jeng@ mail.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University
Dept of Information Management
70 Lien-hai Road
Kaohsiung 804
Taiwan
Sergey Chernyshov
ace@ insurer.com.ua
Research and Tech Inst of Trans
3 Kolomenskaya str
61166 Kharkov
Ukraine
Sergey Yevtushenko
ace@ nti.com.ua
JSC
3 Kolomenskaya str
61166 Kharkov
Russia
Anatoly Voronin
ace@ nti.com.ua
JSC
3 Kolomenskaya str
Kharvkov 61012
Ukraine
Ted H. Chu
ted.chu@ gm.com
General Motors Corporation
100 Renaissance Center
MC 482-A18-C66
Detroit MI 48265 USA
Changming Xu
xcm@ mx.cei.gov.cn
State Information Center
No 58 Sanlihe Road
Beijing 100045 China
Weishuang Qu
wqu@ threshold21 com
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650
Arlington VA 22201-3357 USA
Policy Design by Fitting Desired Behavior Patterns
to System Dynamics Models
The paper proposes a policy design method for system dynamics models
based on neural network and genetic algorithms. Algorithmic approaches to
policy design traditionally are accomplished by either optimization or modal
control methods, which achieve the designer’s goal through an indirect way.
The approach presented here instead is more directly. A model designer can
specify any desired behavior pattern and let the learning algorithm to point
out where to consider for changes. It needs no objective function as required
by optimization algorithms nor suffers the limitations of linearization and
complex control mechanism as modal control approaches usually do. The
approach is based on our previous work that shows a system dynamics
model (i.c., a flow diagram) is equivalent to a specially-design partial
recurrent network which both operate under the same numerical propagation
constraints. Several experimental studies are conducted to evaluate
performance of the new approach. The results show that it is at least as
effectiveness as other competent approaches but more convenient and
straightforward.
Bifurcations in Nonlinear Kaldor's Model
The article is devoted to research of nonlinear dynamic Kaldor's model
which describes the behavior of the income and the level of capital stock.
The function of investment and the saving function are nonlinear. The
analysis of stability of the model considered was carried out and the
parameter fields of the initial equation localized. The situations at the
bounds of field stability with appearance of the corresponding pitchfork
bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation. The critical parametric meaning when the
pitchfork bifurcation, the Hopf bifurcation and the global bifurcation
become possible were found. Bifurcations diagrams are presented.
Feedback Loops and Policy Scenarios in The
Chinese Private Vehicle Demand Model
This paper develops a system dynamics model for China's fast growing
private vehicle market. The basic structure of the model relating to income
and vehicle affordability is presented. Both the baseline projection and the
sensitivity cases for private vehicle sales over the next decade are discussed
in light of feedback loops between the economy, the vehicle market, the
energy sector, and the transportation infrastructure.
Ming Liu
Im@ mx.cei.gov.cn
State Information Center
No 58 Sanlihe Road
Beijing 100045 China
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 49
Papers continued
Martin Cloutier
cloutier.martin@ ugam.ca
University of Quebec at Montreal
Dept Management and Technology
315 Ste-Catherine est
Montreal QC H2X 3X2 Canada
Felix Gaudet-Dumais
Martin Cloutier
cloutier.martin@ ugam.ca
University of Quebec at Montreal
Dept Management and Technology
315 Ste-Catherine est
Montreal QC H2X 3X2 Canada
Gilbert Lavoie
Gianluca Colombo
gianluca.colombo@ lu.unisi.ch
University of Lugano
Via Giuseppe Buffi 13
CH-6904 Lugano Switzerland
Marco Meneguzzo
Edoardo Mollona
emollona@ cs.unibo it
Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Department of Computer Science
Mura Anteo Zamboni 7
40127 Bologna Italy
Ferdinardo Monte
ferdimonte@ libero..it
University of Lugano
viale XX Settembre 12
34125 Trieste Italy
Perception of Information Value Production of
Influence Diagrams versus Level-Rate Models:
The Opinion of Decision-Makers
This paper is about the debates on the use, and contribution, of influence
diagrams, or the display of more qualitative dimensions of feedback
structures, versus the use of level-rate models, or quantitative models, in
system dynamics. the research question we are asking in this paper is: What
is the perception of decision-makers regarding the use value of influence
diagrams and of level-rate models? The objective of the paper is to
understand the perception of individuals familiar and unfamiliar with SD
methods, and to find out what they think about various dimensions of this
issue as raised by Coyle (2000) and Homer and Oliva (2001). This paper
reports on a simple exploratory research that analyses the viewpoints of two
groups of decision-makers, one that has familiarity with SD and one that
does not. The results are mixed, and by an interesting twist, substantiate
some dimensions of both Coyle (2000) and Homer and Oliva (2001).
Coordination of the Agrifood System: Managing
Feedback from Accidental Adversaries to
Cooperation
Relationships between agricultural producers and other linkages in the
agricultural value chain are notoriously adversarial (Street, 1990; Cloutier,
1999). The nature of this adversarial relationship is deeply rooted in the way
agricultural commodities are produced and traded all the way to the final
end-user. Earlier research clearly has shown that more information is
required to improve the relationship between suppliers and customers in the
agrifood system. The objective of the paper is to report how a producer
commercialization group in Quebec is trying to learn to work together to
address the issues facing the industry using system thinking methods. Over
the years, the industry has introduced several management programs to help
producers and to develop the industry and markets. However, the industry is
at a crossroad, and the participants must look at the bigger picture issue
together to understand systemic benefits and risks. The research presents the
results of a survey showing the impact on the issues facing this group on
their shared and unshared understanding of the system.
Introducing Feedback Thinking and Simulation in
ECOSTATO Training Programme
The ECOSTATO model in an application of system dynamics modelling
and simulation to the trainining programme of hired civil servants of State
Department of Human Resource Management of Ticino in Switzerland. The
project was undertaken by the Laboratory for System Modelling in Lugano
University (USI). The simulation model was developed as a pedagogical tool
to rejuvenate an existing role playing. The paper describes the modelling
process with particular regards to interface building and integration of
balance sheet information with social and macroeconomic dynamics. In
particular, a number of considerations are derived on problems related to the
development of a brand new teaching process that, on the one hand,
impinges upon a new teaching technology (computer simulation), on the
other, substitutes a well entrenched training programme.
50 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Stephen H. Conrad
shconra@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 0451
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA
David L. Cooke
dlcooke@ ucalgary.ca
University of Calgary
1008 Beverley Blvd SW
Calgary AB T2V 2C5
Canada
Melanie Cox
m.cox@marine.ug.edu.au
University of Queensland
Centre for Marine Studies
St Lucia Brisbane QLD 4072 Australia
Ron Johnstone
mje@ uq.edu.au
University of Queensland
Centre for Marine Studies
St Lucia QLD 4072 Australia
Brad Jorgensen
bjorgensen@ mailbox.uq.edu.au
University of Queensland
School of Journalism and Communication
St Lucia QLD 4072 Australia
Jackie Robinson
jrobinson@ economics.uq.edu.au
University of Queensland
School of Economics
St Lucia QLD 4072 Australia
The Dynamics of Agricultural Commodities and
Their Responses to Disruptions of Considerable
Magnitude
An agricultural commodity production cycle model consisting of corn, beef,
and dairy sectors was constructed for the purpose of exploring the
propagating effects of large-scale disruptive events. In an initial proof-of-
concept exercise, we considered an agricultural disruption scenario in which
foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is introduced into the U.S., causing a large-
scale outbreak of the disease in both beef and dairy cattle. The magnitude of
disruption to the beef and dairy sectors are presented under the existing
FMD response policy and then improvements under two alternative policies
are shown.
Using System Dynamics Models to Enhance the
Visualization of Stochastic Price Processes
The market prices of many financial assets and commodities can be
described by stochastic processes. For example, the famous Black-Scholes
formula for valuing options on common stocks is based on the assumption
that stock prices move according to a geometric Brownian motion. This
paper describes some models for stochastic price processes and shows how
they can be formulated using the methodology of system dynamics. System
dynamics lends itself to visualization of both the structure of the models and
of the resultant price dynamics. For this reason, it is suggested that students’
understanding of stochastic price processes can be enhanced by using such
models as teaching aids. Another advantage of system dynamics as a
modeling environment is that feedback loops and time delays can be easily
incorporated into the models. This should facilitate the integration of
stochastic price models with supply chain models and provide richer insights
into the dynamics of financial and commodity markets.
Impacts of Environmental Condition on Human
Social Well-Being
Humans have wide ranging impacts on many of the world’s ecosystems, but
the reciprocal effects of changes in ecosystem condition on humans are
poorly understood. Dynamic modelling provides a useful tool to investigate
the ways in which specific aspects of well-being might be impacted by
changes in the condition of surrounding ecosystems. Understanding the
positive linkages between ecosystem condition and human well-being can
potentially reduce the apparent conflict between environmental improvement
and human interests, thus improving management of local ecosystems. The
aim of the model presented here is to examine the impacts of changes in
coastal waterway condition on social aspects of human well-being. As there
are currently few examples of modelling of social well-being, one of our
aims is to present this model as a basis for further discussion and exploration
of possible approaches to modelling social structures. Further stages of
modelling aim to also incorporate impacts on human health and regional
economic production and employment.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 51
Papers continued
Adolfo Crespo Marquez
adolfo.crespo@ esi.us.es
University of Seville
School of Engineering
Camino de los Descubrimientos s/n
41092 Seville Spain
(S)
Pablo Alvarez deToledo Saavedra
pablo@ esi.us.es
University of Seville
Dept of Industrial Management
Camino de los Descubrimientos s/n
41092 Sevilla Spain
Fernando Nifiez Hernandez
fnunez@ esi.us.es
University of Seville
Dept of Industrial Management
Camino de los Descubrimientos s/n
41092 Sevilla Spain
Carlos Usabiaga Ibaiiez
cusaiba@ dee.upo.es
University Pablo de Olavide
Dept of Economics and Business
Ctra Utrera km 1
41013 Sevilla Spain
Adolfo Crespo Marquez
adolfo.crespo@ esi.us.es
University of Seville
School of Engineering
Camino de los Descubrimientos s/n
41092 Seville Spain
Carol Blanchar
carolb@ conexo.com
Hewlett Packard
1909 Magdalena Circle #75
Santa Clara CA 95051 USA
Stephen Curram
steve.curram@ hvr-csl.co.uk
HVR Consulting Services Ltd
Selborne House Mill Lane
Alton Hampshire GU34 2Q) UK
David Exelby
dave.exelby@ hvr-csl.co.uk
HVR Consulting Services Ltd
Selborne House Mill Lane
Alton Hampshire GU34 2QJ UK
Jocelyn Lovegrove
jocelyn. lovegrove@ hvr-csl.co.uk
HVR Consulting Services Ltd
Selborne House Mill Lane
Alton Hampshire GU34 2QJ UK
52
©)
Introducing Autoregressive Elements in System
Dynamics Models
Autoregressive, vector autoregressive and structural vector autoregressive
models may be described, in general, as those models that explain, at least
partially, the values of a variable or set of variables, based on the past values
of this variable or set of variables. During the last decades these models have
increased their presence and importance within the field of economic and
econometric analysis. It has been found that this kind of simple models, with
a small number of variables and parameters, can seriously compete in terms
of their forecasting capabilities with the large macroeconomic models, with
hundreds of variables and parameters, developed during the fifties and
sixties. This paper explains how System Dynamics models built using
Vensim simulation environment may easily incorporate the main elements of
autoregressive models. In order to do that we have developed a structural
autoregressive model using stock and flow diagrams built with Vensim
software and provided the code for the mathematical formulation in a way
that this tool can be later used in System Dynamics models. This tool
provides short term forecasting capabilities to System Dynamics models
built using Vensim. As an illustration, we present an application to the study
of the Spanish labor market.
A Decision Support System (DSS) for Evaluating
Operations Investments in High-Technology
Business
The evolution in the way that businesses approach markets has been a
frequent literature topic in the last few years. In the high-tech industry, even
the most successful companies have been mainly focused on the features of
their products and processes, trying to develop their technology to gain a
price / performance advantage, and thereby protect or increase market share.
However, this approach is disconnected from their beliefs about what target
customers really care about, nor does it is consider which of those
underlying assumptions are most critical to business growth in share,
revenue, and profit. This paper proposes a Decision Support System to
connect customer value to business targets, providing scenarios to show the
customer responses and business results that will enable future funding, with
optimization techniques to compare alternatives.
Keep on Rolling: Understanding the Migration
Dynamics of a Large Railway Improvement
Project
This paper describes the application of system dynamics to planning a major
upgrade for an underground railway system. The upgrade involves new train
and signals introduction along with other engineering works. A working
system needs to be maintained during the upgrade process, necessitating a
carefully planned migration process. The operators receive financial
payments based on service performance against incremental targets. A
system dynamics model was developed that represented progress on train
introductions and engineering work, its impact on system performance, and
the corresponding financial implications. The model allows analysis of
different options for work scheduling and activities under conditions of
224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Michael A. Deegan
md7875@ albany.edu
University at Albany
56F Weis Road
Albany NY 12208
USA
Vincenzo Di Giulio
enzo.digiulio@ enicorporateuniversity.eni.it
Eni Corporate University
Via S Salvo 1
20097 San Donato Milanese MI
Italy
Marco Grasso
Stefania Migliavacca
stefania migliavacca@ enicorporateuniversity.eni.it
Eni Corporate University
Scuola Mattei
Via S Salvo 1
20097 San Donato Milanese MI
Italy
Alessandro Vaglio
alessandro.vaglio@ unibg.it
University of Bergamo
Dept of Economics
Via dei Caniana 2
Bergamo BG
Italy
Luciano Canova
luccanov@ tin.it
Universita Bicocca di Milano
Via Chiavenna 9
23100 Sondrio SO
Italy
restricted access to the line in order to understand the performance and
financial impacts throughout the migration period.
Extreme Event Policy Analysis: Identifying
Stakeholders and Preferences for Natural Hazard
Mitigation Policies
Extreme events can cause severe damage and potential harms to many
people in a very short period of time. Considerable challenges confront
policy makers who seek to change individual and community behaviors to
mitigate disasters. The model developed for this research develops an
endogenous view of changes to extreme event policies through stock and
flow feedback structures. Floods are among the costliest natural hazards in
the United States, account for the largest category of federal disaster
declarations, and the hazard is broadly distributed across the United States.
While the first piece of this work begins with floods, the ultimate goal of this
research is to develop a generic structure for extreme event policy making
and implementation. Future research will replicate this effort with other
natural hazards, and with technological or social problems such as terrorism
or aviation safety. A key insight from the modeling process showed some
tensions in extreme event “policy analysis.” The modeling effort recognized
the contributions of several disciplines that study different aspects of the
“policy process.” By taking a multi-disciplinary approach to extreme event
policy making, this research opens up new avenues for policy analysis.
MISS: A Model of Sustainable Human
Development
The MISS (MeasurIng Sustainability in Sen’s framework) Project started at
the beginning of January 2004 and will last one year. It aims to define a
possible operative map of sustainable human development as intended in the
capability approach, related to the Nobel Prize for Economics Amartya Sen.
In Sen’s view well-being must be considered in terms of human functionings
and capabilities. Functionings relate to what a person may value doing or
being: they are the living conditions achieved by an individual. Capabilities
concern the ability of an individual to achieve different combinations of
functionings, and define the freedom to choose the life that she prefers. The
MISS model tries aims to define a model of sustainable human development
based on Sen’s paradigm and built within the tradition of system dynamics.
Our main purpose is to verify, for Italy and over a 50 years time horizon, the
variations of some achieved functionings, due to structural dynamics and to
variations in the institutional setting, and to study the role played by the
institutional context. The model contains the following modules: Economy,
Environment, Residences, Mobility, Health, Security, Employment, Poverty,
Institutional and Fiscal Response.
Stefano Pareglio Sara Lelli
stefano.pareglio@ unimi.it
Universita degli Studi di Milano
DEPAAA
via Celoria 2
20133 Milano
Italy
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 53
Papers continued
Joao Ferreira Dias
fdias@ iscte.pt
ISCTE
CACIFO 238-B
Av Forcas Armadas
1600-083 Lisboa Portugal
Rui Menezes
Jose C. Filipe
jefilipe@ iscte.pt
ISCTE
Cacifo 231 EC Av Forcas Armadas
Av Forcas Armadas
1649-026 Lisbon Portugal
James DiFrancesca
jim_difrancesca@ post harvard.edu
Emergency Education Project
66 Chester Street #1
Allston MA 02134
USA
Rebecca Dale
becsdale@ aol.com
Tufis University
36 Homefield Road
London W4 2LW
UK
Chris Soderquist
Claudia Dingethal
dingethal@ gmx.de
University of Bergen
Wallaustrasse 58
55118 Mainz
Germany
)
System Dynamics and Time Series Analysis: Two
Approaches for a Convergent Answer
Norway and Portugal are the biggest players in the huge cod World market.
Norway is the largest producer and exporter while Portugal is the largest
importer and consumer. Moreover they are the only ones with an important
salting and drying cod industry. So, it is important to know (i) if these
markets are integrated (in the economic sense) and (ii) the dynamics of the
mark-ups along the international value chain. For that we use the system
dynamics and the cointegration analysis of prices. This communication
shows how the results from both approaches were used for (i) cross-
validation, (ii) analysing the monetary exchange pass rate through, and (iii)
getting insights about the feedback information used in the salting process.
In conclusion, if those different approaches are used in a complementary
way they can contribute to build a robust and rich model.
A Heuristic Model on the Role of Education in
Complex Humanitarian Emergencies
This heuristic model, which we will submit as a poster, informs dialogue and
decision-making about the benefits of educating children and youth in
complex emergencies. The target audiences are stakeholders in humanitarian
assistance and international development, donors and lenders, ministries of
education, and other international, national, and indigenous private,
governmental, and non-government organizations working in conflict
regions. The model will take the form of a “flight simulator” and a
debriefing model that simulate a refugee population settled within a region
of ongoing conflict. Operators of the model will examine the impact of
education programs—or the lack there of—on_ individuals, their
communities, and on the trends that sustain the surrounding conflict. The
model’s purpose is to inform dialogue among stakeholders about the
importance of education as a form of humanitarian assistance, and to
encourage stakeholders to examine their assumptions about the dynamics of
the conflict system, including the impact of aid programs.
"Instantaneous Processes": A Practical
Requirement of System Dynamics!?
In many of the systems that are subject to System Dynamics modelling in
client projects, iterative information processes take place. The purpose of
such processes is to conduct a numerical analysis (incl. optimization) to
support decision making. The time-span on which these processes take place
is insignificant compared to the time span on which we investigate the
system at hand. The implication is that such processes are considered to take
place instantaneously, i.e. without the passing of time, i.e. at distinct points
in time. Most modelling and simulation software, developed within the
context of system dynamics, have not been designed to incorporate iterative
numerical processes of this kind. This paper intends to open up a debate
about the necessity, usefulness and possibilities of incorporating
instantaneous processes into System Dynamics models. It presents first
research results and possible areas of application in which iterative
information processes play a significant role.
224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Claudia Dingethal
dingethal@ gmx.de
University of Bergen
Wallaustrasse 58
55118 Mainz
Germany
G6khan Dogan
gdogan@ mit.edu
MIT
30 Wadsworth Street
Building E53 Room 364
Cambridge MA 02139 USA.
Analyses of a Repair Cycle in a High-Tech
Company with System Dynamics Methodology
During the last years the demand on companies concerning product-life-
cycle-management grew because of strict environmental laws and an
increasing world-wide competition. Repair cycles have been established in
the industry and in the military in order to support a sustainable development
in environmental and economical aspects. This paper presents a client
project in which the repair cycle of a high-tech company was analysed using
System Dynamics Methodology. The company detected high inefficiencies
in respect to capital lockup and storage costs due to long and varying time
delays in shipment processes. In order to enhance cost efficiency and
customer satisfaction, it was important to represent and understand structure
and dynamic behaviour of the repair cycle. The System Dynamics model
allows analysing consequences of changes in time characteristics. Major
insights could be gained about the behaviour of the repair cycle during the
transient phase but also in respect to long term effects.
Confidence Interval Estimation in System
Dynamics Models: Bootstrapping vs. Likelihood
Ratio Method
In this paper we discuss confidence interval estimation for system dynamics
models. Confidence interval estimation is important because without
confidence intervals, we cannot determine whether an estimated parameter
value is significantly different from 0 or any other value, and therefore we
cannot determine how much confidence to place in the estimate. We
compare two methods for confidence interval estimation. The first, the
“likelihood ratio method,” is based on maximum likelihood estimation. The
likelihood ratio method is computationally efficient but requires strong
assumptions about the model and data. These assumptions are frequently
violated by the autocorrelation, endogeneity of explanatory variables and
heteroskedasticity properties of dynamic models. The second method is
called “bootstrapping.” Bootstrapping requires more computation but does
not impose strong assumptions on the model or data. We describe the
methods and illustrate them with a series of applications from actual
modeling projects. We consider the advantages and disadvantages of the
methods and discuss practical considerations in their use. Finally, we close
with recommendations for modelers seeking to develop robust estimates of
the uncertainty around parameter estimates in dynamic models, and call for
the automation of bootstrap methods in system dynamics software.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 55
Papers continued
Richard G. Dudley
rgd6@ cornell.edu
PMB 239
14845 SW Murray Scholls Dr Ste 110
Beaverton OR 97007-9237 USA
Jim Duggan
jim.duggan@ nuigalway.ie
National University of Ireland Galway
Department of Information Technology
University Road
Galway Ireland
Jessica Leigh Durfee
jessicadurfee@ yahoo.com
University of Utah
851 3rd Avenue #1
Salt Lake City UT 84103-3838
USA
James I. Mills
jimills@ onewest.net
University of Utah
311 N Placer
Idaho Falls ID 83402
USA
Philip C. Emmi
emmi@ arch.utah.edu
University of Utah
College of Architecture and Planning
375 South 1530 East Room 235 AAC
Salt Lake City UT 84112-0370
USA
Craig Forster
cforster@ mines.utah.edu
University of Utah
Geology and Geophysics
135 South 1460 East Rm 719
Salt Lake City UT 84112-0111 USA
The Dynamic Structure of Social Capital: How
Interpersonal Connections Create Communitywide
Benefits
Social capital is built via the network of connections among individuals in a
community. Interactions among individuals within such a network make
various endeavors more successful than they would be without such
connections. The community becomes something more than a collection of
individuals, because this structure has beneficial effects on economic and
other efforts of community members, and provides benefits to the
community as a whole. While benefits of social capital are well documented,
the mechanisms of social capital -- how it produces such benefits -- are less
well understood. Several mechanisms have been suggested, however, and
these can form the basis for the structure of system dynamics models with
which these various hypothesized mechanisms of social capital can be
examined. One can more clearly define social capital by using the structure
of these models.
Policy Diffusion in the Beer Game
This research studies the classic beer game simulation model from a new
perspective. It does so by providing each agent with two ordering policies,
and creating a set of rules that allow an agent to change its policy. Such a
change is triggered based on an agent’s confidence in their own
performance, and on the relative confidence of their nearest neighbour. The
overall effect is that policy diffusion can occur, where, under certain
circumstances, an agent will mimic the behaviour of its neighbour, if it
believes that its neighbour is performing better. The motivation behind this
research is to provide an experimental base upon which the decision making
strategies of business agents can be studied.
The Chicken or the Egg: Does Interdisciplinary
Collaboration Enhance Systems Model-Building or
Does Systems Model-Building Enhance
Interdisciplinary Collaboration?
Does interdisciplinary team collaboration enhance the knowledge generated
and shared in systems model building or does model building enhance the
collaboration and collegiality of interdisciplinary team members? This paper
addresses the processes involved in constructing dynamic system models of
“deep complexity” related to scientific and environmental issues. Typically
such model-building requires the knowledge and expertise of specific
disciplinary specialists. The examples used in this analysis come from
modeling an urban airshed, which requires input from atmospheric chemists,
biologists, engineers, meteorologists, and urban planners — just to name a
few. The authors argue that addressing an emergent class of problems
characterized by deep complexity requires an iterative process of
interdisciplinary communication facilitated by model building. This model
building, it is argued, serves as the “Rosetta Stone”, which can lead
interdisciplinarians to create an organic narrative to describe the system and
enhance the quality of knowledge generated.
56 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Michael F. Dwyer
mdwyer@ unlv.nevada.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
2109 Madagascar Lane
Las Vegas NV 89117
USA
Krystyna A. Stave
kstave@ cemail.nevada.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway
Box 454030
Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA
Arun Abraham Elias
arun.elias@ vuw.ac.nz
Victoria University of Wellington
Victoria Management School
930 Rutherford House
Wellington
New Zealand
Robert Y. Cavana
bob.cavana@ vuw.ac.nz
Victoria University of Wellington
PO Box 600
Wellington
New Zealand
Laurie S. Jackson
laurie jackson@ vuw.ac.nz
Victoria University of Wellington
School of Business and Public Mgt
PO Box 600
Wellington
New Zealand
Gabriela Elizondo Azuela
gazuela@ worldbank.org
The World Bank
1818 H Street NW
Mail Stop 15-502
Washington DC 20433 USA
Abhijit Mandal
abhijit.mandal@ whs.ac.uk
Warwick Business School
ORS Group
Gibbet Hill Road
Coventry CV4 7AL UK
Matthew A. Leach
m.leach@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College
Dept of Environmental Science and Tech
Exhibition Road
London SW7 2AZ UK
A Conceptual Framework for Applying System
Dynamics to the Question of Urban Growth
The past two decades have seen many efforts around the globe to manage
urban growth, principally toward the simultaneous goals of sustainability
and quality of life. While progress is being made at the micro levels
(individual building and sometimes neighborhood levels), the results of
broader city and regional-scale efforts have been disappointing. These
macro-level initiatives typically begin well enough, often using a strategic
planning approach, but typically bog down quickly in the complex web of
connections within and between the dimensions of an urban system. We
suggest that system dynamics can provide the means for understanding these
connections and support the development of effective urban growth policy.
In this session, we present a conceptual framework for the application of
system dynamics to the question of urban growth and sustainability.
Analyzing Stakeholder Dynamics in Environmental
Conflict: A New Zealand Transport Infrastructure
Project
There is an increasingly common argument in the environmental
management literature that much of the environmental and resource
management is the management of conflict. One of the challenges, while
managing such environmental conflicts, is to understand the dynamics of
stakeholders in terms of their changing positions and interests. In this paper
we present how a systems thinking and modelling study based on system
dynamics, was used to understand the changing positions and interests of
stakeholders in an environmental conflict. This study involved five phases,
namely, stakeholder analysis, group model building, dynamic modelling,
scenario planning and modelling, and implementation and organisational
learning. The methodology was applied to a New Zealand case relating to a
transportation infrastructure project, called the Transmission Gully project.
Effects of Regulation on the Dynamics of
Liberalized Power Sectors: A Cost Benefit
Analysis of the Capacity Payment of Hydro Based
Systems
In this paper, a cost benefit analysis associated to the application of the
capacity payment in the Colombian power system is reported. The analysis
results in two relevant conclusions. The first one is that the capacity payment
as it is designed today will not maintain acceptable levels of reliability in the
long run as it does not succeed in restoring private investments in the short
to medium terms. The second conclusion is that an increase in the value of
the capacity payment today, which succeeds in effectively attracting the
required investments in capacity to maintain minimum levels of reliability,
has higher net benefits when long terms effects are taken into consideration.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 57
Papers continued
R. Evan Ellis
ellis evan@ bah.com
Booz Allen Hamilton Inc
742 Allen Building
8283 Greensboro Drive
McLean VA 22102
USA
Philip C. Emmi
emmi@ arch.utah.edu
University of Utah
College of Architecture and Planning
375 South 1530 East Room 235 AAC
Salt Lake City UT 84112-0370 USA
Craig Forster
cforster@ mines.utah.edu
University of Utah
Geology and Geophysics
135 South 1460 East Rm 719
Salt Lake City UT 84112-0111 USA
James I. Mills
jimills@ onewest.net
University of Utah
311 N Placer
Idaho Falls ID 83402 USA
Tarla Peterson
Jessica Leigh Durfee
jessicadurfee@ yahoo.com
University of Utah
851 3rd Avenue #1
Salt Lake City UT 84103-3838 USA
Frank Lilly
The Sociopolitical Destabilization of Venezuela: A
System Dynamics Perspective
This paper uses a system dynamics framework to analyze the rapid and
dramatic transformation of Venezuela from an exemplar of prosperity and
democratic stability in Latin America to a nation on the brink of
socioeconomic and political collapse. In Venezuela, unaddressed grievances
of a large marginalized class, in combination with a loss of faith in the
traditional political system permitted the election of Hugo Chavez. His
thetoric and actions, leveraging the power of his position, accelerated the
political polarization and economic collapse of Venezuela. This dynamic
may be characterized in terms of positive feedback effects which
overwhelmed traditional restraints embodied in the institutions and political
culture of Venezuela. This paper uses system dynamics to explain why the
rapid disintegration of Venezuela was possible, suggests a range of possible
futures for the troubled country, and derives implications for the region as a
whole.
Collaborative Development of Narratives and
Models for Steering Inter-Organizational Networks
The power to direct and manage change within metropolitan areas is
increasingly dispersed among a loosely interconnected set of mostly local
organizations, agencies and actors that form a special type of urban inter-
organizational network. Increasingly, the quality of metropolitan regional
governance depends upon IO network capacity to articulate systemically
insightful urban development strategies, i.e., to exercise a capacity for
network steering. We outline an IO network steering capacity-support
process that combines collaborative learning, narrative storytelling, and
system dynamics modeling with the goal of deepening insights into urban
human/biophysical processes and securing greater resilience in metropolitan
regional governance. Our process promotes comprehension of complex
urban processes through stories about past trajectories and future growth
scenarios that frame issues within collaborative learning workshops for
deliberation by local opinion leaders. This initiative is part of a larger
research study on greenhouse gas emissions in relation to human and
biological activities within metropolitan areas.
58 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Martijn Eskinasi
meskinasi@ atrive.nl
Atrivé
PO Box 136
3700 AC Zeist The Netherlands
Etiénne A. J. A. Rouwette
e.rouwette@ nsm.kun.nl
Nijmegen University
Th van Aquinostraat 5.0.64
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Diana Fisher
dfisher25@ verizon.net
Wilson High School
7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008
USA
()
Simulating the Urban Transformation Process in
the Haaglanden Region, the Netherlands
This paper describes a recent modeling project on the dynamics of new
housing construction, transformation of outdated dwellings and the impact
of both processes on a regional social housing market. The study continues
and adds to the work of Forrester and others on urban dynamics. A team of
seven stakeholders and experts participated in model construction. The
model was constructed over a period of about 14 months and yielded several
counterintuitive insights. The housing allocation system proved to have far
smaller effect than expected, while the proportion of new greenfield
construction to transformation (demolition and new construction within the
city) has emerged as a crucial steering factor. The migration multiplier is a
very important external parameter. A strategic workshop for policy makers,
managers of housing associations and other stakeholders in the region
offered a chance to present the final model and operate it in the form of a
flight simulator. In line with the recommendations of a recent survey of
group model building projects, participants’ insights and conclusions from
both the project and the workshop are evaluated. The evaluation is based on
the Ajzen model and focuses on the effect of group model building on
attitudes, intentions and behavior.
Women in System Dynamics Modeling: Out of the
Loop?
“System dynamics deals with how things change through time, which
includes most of what people find important... System dynamics
demonstrates how most of our decision making policies are the cause of the
problems that we usually blame on others, and how to identify policies we
can follow to improve our situation.” (Jay Forrester) How can this field be
unattractive to women? This paper presents statistics showing the level of
representation of women in the sciences in the United States in 1998-1999. It
presents some issues women face when trying to participate as a minority in
a technical field such as computer science or engineering. A summary of
responses from both men and women to a questionnaire that was posted on
the System Dynamics Society listserv regarding under-representation of
women in the System Dynamics field is compiled. Suggestions for potential
action are listed.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 59
Papers continued
Jay Forrest
systems@ jayforrest.com
Jay Forrest, Consulting Strategist
22375 Fossil Ridge
San Antonio TX 78261
USA
Margaret Ann Fulenwider
mnfulenwider@ crai.com
Charles River Associates Inc
c/o Intecap Inc
45 Milk Street Sth Floor
Boston MA 02109 USA
Philip Helmes
phelmes@ crai.com
Charles River Associates Inc
c/o InteCap Inc
45 Milk Street 5th Floor
Boston MA 02109 USA
Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh
mohammad@ attunegroup.com
Attune Group Inc
16 Regina Court Suite #1
Delmar NY 12054 USA
Roderick H. MacDonald
rod@ attunegroup.com
Attune Group Inc
60 Oakwood Street
Albany NY 12208 USA
Valerie Gacogne
valerie.gacogne@ nestear.net
NESTEAR
89-93 Avenue Paul Vaillant Couturier
94250 Gentilly
France
Evolution and Behavior of System Structure:
Eight Perspectives for Examining a Complex Issue
Quantitative models based on systems thinking and system science are
routinely used to explore and anticipate the likely behavior of broad and
highly complex issues and problems. While such models can provide
valuable insights, they are invariably simplistic and frequently face
controversy in both structure and quantitative details. The end result is that,
while they may prove valuable in understanding the dynamics of the system,
their value in understanding the evolutionary and behavioral tendencies of
the system may be quite limited. A qualitative approach based upon
structural perspectives can suggest tendencies beyond the scope of
quantitative models. This paper presents eight interrelated perspectives for
examining a complex issue or problem and for inferring potential
evolutionary tendencies or behavior based upon the structural characteristics
of the system under study. Experience suggests these perspectives may be
useful not only in dealing with qualitative system models, but also in
validating and troubleshooting quantitative models.
Operational Labor Productivity Model
Construction processes inherently involve complex interactions among
variables including, but not limited to, physical attributes, resource
availability, budget restrictions, and management techniques. Labor
productivity, a key variable in the profitability of a project, is influenced by
complex and competing factors such as skill level, motivation, and schedule
pressure. Contractors continue to struggle with a fragmented industry where
competitive pricing and labor productivity are defining factor in their
competitive advantage. The current management tools for the industry are
inflexible and slow when planning and controlling work on a fast-track
project where information is knowingly incomplete, both in final design and
construction means and methods. Actual events and conditions are more
challenging than anticipated, which demands rapidly pulling together
resources to ensure the project is still delivered on-time and within the
budget. The data used for the model was provided the subcontractor
installing intelligent highway system components on Boston’s Central
Artery/Tunnel Project.
Impact of Freight Transport Costs and Pricing on
Logistical Systems: A System Dynamics Modeling
Approach (The SANDOMA Model)
The aim of this research is to evaluate the possible impacts of an increase in
freight rates on traffic in a logistical perspective. At the present time road
pricing appears as a key issue for current public policies in Europe in a
context of an increasing concern for sustainable development. However
transport costs take part in several kinds of trade-off decisions that affect a
complex logistical system, involving the whole production and distribution
organisation. A complete analysis of their role in the logistical organisation
60 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Carmine Garzia
carmine.garzia@ lu.unisi.ch
University of Lugano
Via Giuseppe Buffi 13
CH-6904 Lugano
Switzerland
Vittorio Coda
vittorio.coda@ uni-bocconi.it
Universita Commerciale Luigi Bocconi
ISEA
Viale Isonzo 23
20135 Milano Italy
Nicholas C. Georgantzas
georgantzas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University Business Schools
113 W 60th Street Suite LL 617-D
New York NY 10023-7484
USA
Andry Argyrides
consult@ strategicscenarios.com
Strategic Scenarios Inc
210 Sandcastle Key
Secaucus NJ 07094
USA
Sameh Ibrahim Gharib
sameh.gharib@ student.uib.no
University of Bergen
Fantoft Studentby H-882
5075 Bergen Norway
(S)
needs a systemic approach in order to be able to evaluate the impacts of a
significant freight rates increase on traffic. In addition costs are not
considered as the only decisive factor in the organisation, and some
qualitative attributes are taken into account. The SANDOMA model is thus
designed to evaluate the impacts of public policies on freight flows and for a
pedagogical use. This work was carried out in the framework of a PhD
research at the French National Institute for Transport and Safety Research,
and was completed in June 2003.
Innovative Enterprises and Regional Economic
Systems: The Case of Canton Ticino
Based on the literature and on empirical evidence provided by the analysis
of the Canton Ticino’s economic system, the paper explores how innovative
enterprises can contribute to the competitiveness of a local economic system.
Innovative companies are able to introduce innovations in strategic
positioning, operational effectiveness and organisational process and
context. Thanks to these flows of innovations they can remain competitive
and achieve a profitable growth within a current competitive environment
characterised by discontinuity, instability and uncertainty. Innovative
enterprises can play a fundamental role in enhancing local economies’
competitiveness, thus helping the Canton Ticino to face the challenge of
economic and social development. Visibility and creation of social
consensus around the model of innovative enterprise can stimulate emulation
which contributes to the diffusion of innovative business models. Political
and institutional actors play a major role in managing processes targeted to
create visibility and social consensus around innovative entrepreneurial
values and culture.
Collaborative Law Dynamics: Collegiality in Civil
Litigation?
Four system dynamics game models portray two-contestant, paradoxical
self-referential games of non-constant sum conflicts. Two players or groups
compete with dynamic (time varying) probabilities of collaboration. Their
game is paradoxical because both parties can either win or lose
simultaneously. It is self-referential when the payoff, prior discord and loss
parameters depend on the players’ collaboration probabilities. Past research
has found similar game models with exogenous parameters to be
conservative, possessing two centers around which games can oscillate
forever. But with endogenous parameters the dynamics becomes dissipative,
possessing a single fixed-point attractor of moderate equal gains. Large
subsets of initial discord tactics converge on the fixed-point attractor to
sustain collegiality equilibria. The game ends once the point attractor has
absorbed all dynamics, leaving the system in a stable, negative feedback
state. If both players collaborate without undue bias and preconceived
opinions, and equally discount each other’s collegiality or lack of it, then the
stable attractor moves closer to maximum payoff, where both parties
collaborate with probability 1 (one). In the asymmetric model, however, one
of the players can take less into account the other’s collegiality or discord
tactics. Then, it is the most impartial player or group that profits the most!
Modeling the Irrigation System in Egypt
This paper partly describes the empirical part of the ongoing PhD thesis
where we aim to incorporate the system dynamics methodology (approach)
with the associated GIS capabilities in Environmental modeling domain. We
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 61
Papers continued
Anthony H. G. Gill
tony.gill@ phrontis.com
Phrontis Limited
Beacon House Horn Hill Road
Adderbury Banbury OX17 3EU
UK
Paulo Gongalves
paulog@ miami.edu
University of Miami
KE 404
Coral Gables FL 33124 USA
James H. Hines
jhines@ sloan.mit.edu
MIT
81 Hazard Avenue
Suite 1600
Providence RI 02906 USA
John Sterman
jsterman@ mit.edu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142 USA.
Charlie Lertpattarapong
clertpat@ mit.edu
MIT
will emphasize on the need for integration, the significance of this approach,
the potential mutually benefits, and the framework we adopted to implement
this integration. Modeling the environment with GIS, is not a new idea, but
modeling the dynamics of space, time, and human choice is our main
contribution. Our motivation is driven from three assumptions. First, the
spatial representation is crucial to environmental problem solving, but GIS
currently lack the predictive and related analytic capabilities necessary to
examine complex problems. Second, SD Modeling tools typically lack
sufficiently flexible GIS like spatial analytic components and are often
inaccessible to potential users. Third, System dynamics approach and GIS
technology can both be made more robust by their linkage and co-evolution.
SD would benefit by the better engagement of the visual senses in evaluating
the assumptions, operations, and results of the models. We have adapted a
new methodology based on the Object Orientation to incorporate SD with
GIS. We applied this methodology to model the irrigation system in Egypt.
This paper describes the irrigation system from SD viewpoint.
Managing Organizational Change: Integrating
Strategy through the Exploration of Detail and
Dynamic Complexity
This Presentation will explore how multimethodology — combining areas of
strategy, system dynamics and the Viable System Model in a single study
can be used to inform the management of change. The process of managing
change defines the gap between where an organization currently is and
where it would like to be. This makes the process a goal seeking one and
performance measurement is thus required to ensure the “gap” is reducing
over time. The Balanced Scorecard is used for this purpose. It is hoped that a
debate on the ramifications of this approach may develop and these
comments will be fed into the final draft for the Conference Proceedings.
Key words: Strategy, Resource Based View of the Firm, Balanced
Scorecard, Viable System Model (VSM), Deployment Flowcharting, System
Dynamics, Strategy Dynamics and Multimethodology.
The Impact of Endogenous Demand on Push-Pull
Production Systems
Though often analyzed separately, supply chain instability and customer
demand interact through product availability. We investigate the feedback
between supply chain performance and demand variability in a model
grounded in first-hand study of the hybrid push-pull production system used
by a major semiconductor manufacturer. While customers’ response to
variable service impact company profitability, previous models exploring
supply chain instability do not account for it. This research incorporates two
effects of customer responses to availability. The sales effect captures the
negative feedback whereby product shortages cause customers to seek
alternate sources of supply. The production effect captures the delayed
impact of changes in demand on the manufacturer’s production decisions:
lower demand leads to reduced production, prolonging shortages that
depress demand, a destabilizing positive feedback. We show how these
effects interact to destabilize the supply chain and lower performance.
Supply chain models that assume exogenous demand _ therefore
underestimate the amplification in the chain. In addition, accounting for
endogenous demand leads to policy reversals for inventory and utilization
policies. The model yields insights into the costs of lean inventory strategies
and responsive utilization policies in the context of hybrid production
systems and endogenous demand.
62 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
José J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ hia.no
Agder University College
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Grooseveien 36
NO-4876 Grimstad Norway
Agata Sawicka
agata.sawicka@ hia.no
Agder University College
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Grooseveien 36
N-4876 Grimstad Norway
Alan K. Graham
alan.graham@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142
USA
Donna Mayo
donna.mayo@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
1 Memorial Drive
Cambridge MA 02142
USA
Andreas GréBler
agroe@ is bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
()
System Dynamics Student Projects
Improving Process
Quality
We have been teaching system dynamics to Master students of Information
and Communication Technology and Master students of Industrial and
Information Management for six years. To improve the quality of student
performance in the courses we have defined student projects requiring as
first step in the project work an explicit definition of project goals and
formulation of quality criteria for self-evaluation of the projects by the
students. Students are required to apply the self-evaluation criteria to guide
their project work and to include in their report a final evaluation of their
project. We describe our methods and how our approach has improved from
insight derived from our experiences. Generally speaking the students’
quality of work improves during the term and the examination grades are
consistently and repeatedly better than for traditional approaches in past
experiences. On the other hand, a significant number of the students
complain that the system dynamics course demands from them significantly
more effort than what they perceive as justified. Our approach is still
evolving. We are interested in criticism and potential collaboration with
other institutions.
Deregulation: New Understandings, New
Responsibilities
Deregulation has created notable successes. But as time passes, notable
flaws have emerged in several deregulated industries. Three cases, in
electrical power, rail transport and broadband telecommunication, illustrate
both the nature of the problem, and an analytical approach for understanding
and mitigating the unintended consequences of deregulation. The nature of
the problem is unexpected consequences in patterns of investment, which in
turn impacts prices and level of service. Often, all of the stakeholders,
corporation and consumer alike, suffer. The analytical approach is System
Dynamics simulation, which has proven to be a reliable method to address
these complex issues. Investment response under different regulatory
regimes in the three cases is modeled variously by classic SD decision rules,
and by (appropriately constrained) optimization. The simulation analysis
accounts for historically observed unexpected investment behavior, and
offers guidance on how to avoid the undesirable aspects. The responsibilities
of both corporations and regulators would seem to call for the use of System
Dynamics in considering further regulatory changes.
Quantification Makes Sense Even When Empirical
Data Is Limited: A Model of the Bhopal Crisis
Quantifying and simulating formal models can be useful even when
empirical data is limited. Models which are developed without extensive
calibration against real world data a called ‘conceptual simulation models’.
When used with caution, additional insights from quantification, formulation
of policies and simulation analyses outweigh potential problems regarding
the external validity of such models. The discussion is exemplified using a
conceptual simulation model of the Bhopal accident, which was developed
to investigate the linkage between system’s structure and bounded rational
behaviour of agents.
63
Papers continued
Wolf D. Grossmann
wolf@ grossman.de
UFZ Center for Environmental Research
Max-Planck-Strasse
D-21502 Geesthacht
Germany
Lorenz Magaard
James Marsh
Yalin Gunduz
yalin@ metu.edu.tr
Siemens AS Turkey
Yakacik Yolu No 111
Kartal Istanbul 34870
Turkey
Alper Alsan
alper.alsan@ siemens.com
Siemens Sanayi ve Ticaret AS
Yakacik Yolu No 111
Kartal Istanbul 34870
Turkey
Burak Giineralp
guneralp@ uiuc.edu
Univ of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
1102 $ Goodwin Avenue
W-515 Turner Hall
Urbana IL 61801 USA
(S)
Modeling Innovation-Based Approaches to Climate
Mitigation
Mitigation, decrease of greenhouse gases, is often regarded as expensive and
as a major hurdle to innovation and economic development. Here we
describe a systems model that allows to assess integrated policies for
mitigation and economic development. It is highly likely that such policies
might give gains instead of causing costs, up to a considerable decrease of
present emission. This model, and this expectation, is based on accepted
knowledge regarding costs of mitigation. The model describes
interrelationships between three complex realms that are at the heart of
innovation: human knowledge, new key people with the new knowledge of a
new basic innovation and the economy. Real policies usually can only
succeed if they address, simultaneously, appropriately, and in an integrative
pattern, all three realms. Development and assessment of such policies might
help overcoming the present deadlock in mitigation. Through such policies it
should become possible to decrease risks in innovation and to learn to utilize
innovation not only for economic growth but, simultaneously, for decrease
of emissions of greenhouse gases. But such integrated policies are fairly
complex to develop and to assess. The regionalized global model on
innovation and mitigation described here should, eventually, help to
facilitate this process of integrated successful policy development.
A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling
Business-to-Business Markets: The Case of
Siemens
This study focuses on estimating the size of the electrical and electronical
market, i.e. electromarket of Siemens Turkey using system dynamics
modelling. Corporate management has recognized the need of a
comprehensive model of the electromarket in Turkey, due to the dynamics
of the Turkish market, consolidating the data of nine operating groups in
different business areas. The backbone of the model resides in the dynamic
relationship between served, unserved and inaccessible segments of each
electromarket. Nine models have been constructed for groups that operate in
energy, telecommunications, medicals, transportation, and automation
industries. Each model is converted to a management flight simulator giving
each operating group manager the chance to simulate the results of their
governance of the group’s electromarket. The final deliverable is a
consolidated management flight simulator, which will be a support tool for
exercising different market approaches and strategic options for corporate
management.
Exploring Structure-Behavior Relations:
Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors versus Loop
Polarities
The main motivation behind this study is to clarify the distinction between
the loop polarities and the eigenvalues/vectors of a system in the context of
system behavior. To this end, the phase plane analysis is utilized to
emphasize the need for the system dynamics practitioners to use more of the
already available analytical tools in studying structure-behavior relations.
The main advantage of phase planes is that one can observe the motion of
64 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Burak Giineralp
guneralp@ uiuc.edu
Univ of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
1102 $ Goodwin Avenue
W-515 Turner Hall
Urbana IL 61801 USA
Caglar Giiven
cguven@ ie.metu.edu.tr
Middle East Technical University
Dept of Industrial Engineering
Inonu Bulvari
06531 Ankara Turkey
Khalid Hafeez
khafeez@ shu.ac.uk
Sheffield Hallam University
Computing and Management Sciences
Harmer Building Howard Street
Sheffield $1 1WB UK
Izidean Aburawi
Sheffield Hallam University
36 Burgoyne Road
Sheffield S6 3QA
UK
system state on a space defined by system structure. Particularly the
eigenvectors characterize the system structure on this space and create
trajectories for the system state to follow depending on the initial conditions
just like magnetic fields created by a magnet. It is also shown how
investigating phase plane clarifies issues such as positive loops giving rise to
goal-seeking or oscillating behaviors. The analysis is accompanied with the
corresponding system stories. The main disadvantage of the phase plane
approach is that at most three states can be represented at the same time on a
phase plane.
A Principle on Structure-Behavior Relations in
System Dynamics Models
Can a negative feedback loop take part in the generation of exponential
growth? This study examines such questions and consequently presents a
principle regarding the roles of feedback loops in the unfolding of system
behavior for second-order linear models. In general, uncovering system
structure-behavior relation is crucial in understanding the functioning of a
system. In this paper, using the eigenvalue elasticity analysis, it is shown
that associating loops with certain behavior modes based solely on their
polarities is misleading. Six linear second-order models with similar
structures are used as examples in the analysis. The models consist of three
feedback loops. The resulting principle suggests that the relative locations
and magnitudes of feedback loops have more significance than their
polarities in the generation of system behavior. The principle may seem to
state the obvious for some readers; however, its significance is its reliance
on a concrete analytical analysis. There is potential for the formulation of
more such principles especially for higher-order systems.
Systems Thinking Curriculum as Strategy
The number of Industrial Engineering Departments has recently grown to
more than 30 in Turkey, and competition for good students is tough. Most
departments follow conventional industrial engineering curricula based on
the North American model where systems concepts and systems thinking are
not as much in focus as quantitative analysis and mathematical modelling.
The IE Department of Middle East Technical University has a tradition of
emphasising the systems approach and has recently decided to develop an
educational strategy by expanding and building upon this tradition. It is
thought that emphasising critical systems thinking is a prerequisite for
making effective use of mathematical models and for effective IE practice.
This paper reports on the methodology and the process of curriculum
planning as strategy.
Human Resource Modeling Using System
Dynamics
Effective human resource planning allows management to recruit, develop
and deploy the right people at the right places at the right times to fulfil both
organizational and individual objectives. Firms are constantly looking out
for strategies to cope with staff shortages which is particularly acute in the
“knowledge intense” industries due to high staff turnover. This paper
describes how System dynamics may be used as a tool to model and analyse
the human resource planning problems associated with staff recruitment,
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 65
Papers continued
Allan Norcliffe
Sheffield Hallam University
Howard Street
Sheffield S1 1WB.
UK
Workneh Hailegiorgis
workneh.hailegiorgis@ bbc.co.uk
Ddembe W. Williams
d.williams@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
BCIM
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA UK
Tim Haslett
thaslett@ bigpond.net.au
Monash University
900 Dandenong Road Caulfield East
3145 Melbourne
Australia
Mark Heffernan
mheffernan@ evanspeck.com.au
staff surpluses and staff shortages. An integrated system dynamics
framework is discussed. The Inventory and Order Based Production Control
System (IOBPCS) construct has been introduced to develop various
feedback and feed forward paths in the context of human resource
management. The model is mapped onto an overseas petrochemical
company's staff recruitment and attrition situations and subsequently tested
using real data. Strategies for HRP are developed by conducting time based
dynamic analysis. Optimum design guidelines are provided to reduce
unwanted scenario of staff surplus and/or shortage. We anticipate that
system dynamics modelling would help the decision maker to devise
medium to long term efficient human resource planning strategies.
Modeling Capacity Requirements for BBC IT
Services Storage Area Network: Experience and
Research
(S)
(S)
International System Dynamics Pty Ltd
20B/390 Eastern Valley Way
East Roseville NSW 2069
Australia
Geoff McDonnell
gmcdonne@ bigpond.net.au
University of New South Wales
382 Bronte Road
Bronte NSW 2024
Australia
Angus Faulkner
afaulkner@ evanspeck.com.au
Evans & Peck Pty Ltd
PO Box 7191 Cloisters Square
6000 Perth
Australia
The research provides BBC Technology Ltd with a system dynamics model
as a decision support tool that can be used to facilitate the understanding of
capacity storage utilisation. The model creates learning environment that
enables efficient and effective management of the storage area network
(SAN) capacity in different planning time frames. The results have
significant implications for long-term capacity investment decisions for IT
Service managers and capacity planning managers.
Simulating Hamlet: A Critique
This paper explores the implications of the use of System Dynamics models
in drama. It examines the model used in Pamela Lee Hopkins’ "Simulating
Hamlet in the classroom". The paper addresses this issue from a literary,
rather than a modelling, perspective. It begins by discussing two general
issues in the use of SD modelling in literature. Two aspects of the model,
motivation and evidence revelation, are then examined against evidence
from the text, supported by some historical information. Some of the
difficulties inherent in modelling drama are highlighted and the paper
concludes that the model does not adequately capture the complexity of the
play because SD modelling is not an effective tool for literary analysis.
Using System Dynamics to Analyse Health System
Performance within the WHO Framework
The World Health Organisation has developed and refined a considerable
body of work on Health Systems Performance Assessment, reflected in the
World Health Report 2000 on comparing countries’ health systems and
ongoing worldwide debate. This paper contributes to this debate by
presenting an overall System Dynamics simulation of the key features of the
WHO framework, including some feedback interactions among financing,
resource generation, service delivery and stewardship which affect
healthcare systems performance and the aggregate and distributional effects
on health status and outcomes. The model is calibrated using Australian
healthcare statistics trends over the past 40 years and explores what-if
simulations over the next 40 years. It discusses the current status of work in
progress to clarify the wider issue of the contribution of the health system to
the overall well-being of individuals, groups and the nation. The gaps in
theory and practice and contentious areas for ongoing research and
refinement are explored and potential future enhancements of the simulation
are discussed. These enhancements include: More compelling and engaging
66 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Mark Heffernan (S)
mheffernan@ evanspeck.com.au
International System Dynamics Pty Ltd
20B/390 Eastern Valley Way
East Roseville NSW 2069
Australia
Paul Martin
paul_m@ profitfoundation.com.au
Profit Foundation
PO Box 744
1499 Sutherland
Australia
Geoff McDonnell
gmcdonne@ bigpond.net.au
University of New South Wales
382 Bronte Road
Bronte NSW 2024
Australia
Petri Helo
phelo@ uwasa.fi
University of Vaasa
Production Economics
PO Box 700
FIN-65101 Vaasa Finland
Stefanie Hillen
hillen@ uni-mainz.de
Teacher Training Center Wiesbaden
Wiesenstrasse 11
$5127 Mainz
Germany
animations and their potential to influence public debate about health policy;
Including datasets and comparisons among other developed countries;
Health systems evolution in developing countries; and Global health policy
options and debates.
National Medicines Use Dynamics: Influencing
Health Policy with System Dynamics
The Australian Government is required to report every five years on the
impact of current fiscal policies on future generations. The first
Intergenerational Report (IGR) in 2002 projected future Federal income and
expenditure for the next forty years based on expected demographic changes
due to the baby boomers effect of increased fertility rates from 1946-1973.
The projected growth in GDP was 2.5 times while the federal Government
outlays on prescription medicines through the universal Pharmaceutical
Benefits Scheme (PBS) was expected to grow fifteen-fold by 2042. We
developed with The National Healthcare Alliance a system dynamics model
of a broader view of future medicines use. This joint model replicated the
IGR case as context, with additional detail on drivers of new drug use,
feedback of benefits of medicines use on macroeconomics, and structural
changes in over, under and mis-use of medicines over the next four decades.
Main findings are: IGR projections are sensitive to assumptions, especially
workforce participation and productivity growth; effective medicines use
contributes to National Health and Wealth, and this contribution depends on
the level of under-use, overuse and misuse of medicines. The results from
this System Dynamics modelling formed the basis for a 2004 Federal
Budget Submission to Treasury from the Alliance.
Productivity Challenges of Food Manufacturing:
A System Dynamics Analysis of Demand
Uncertainty and Value of Time
Managing the supply chains of fast moving consumer goods includes
industry specific challenges. For instance food products may have very short
life cycle although the routing from factory to distribution centres and finally
to wholesale can include several options. Due to competition in the market,
there is very much pressure on cost effectiveness. The delivery time is also
crucial: the value of the product may disappear in 7 to 14 days. The
productivity of food manufacturing may be sensitive to product mix
variations too. This paper presents a productivity analysis of a food supply
chain, which illustrates some managerial implications. The key elements of
the model are the value of the delivery time for the wholesale and the
manufacturing costs. There are certain trade-offs between capacity
utilisation and lead-time performance. The results of the model suggest the
value of sales time to be very important for the retail. By using make-to-
order type of production, the total supply chain could create more value for
the retail customers.
Development of a Measurement Tool for System
Dynamics-Based Learning Activities in Business
Subject Matters
Learning activities based in the System Dynamics approach are intended to
be supportive for learners. A core objective is to elaborate the understanding
of complex subject matters. In that respect researchers are exploring the
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 67
Papers continued
Gary B. Hirsch
gbhirsch@ comcast.net
7 Highgate Road
Wayland MA 01778
USA
Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting
3618 Avalon Court
Voorhees NJ 08043
USA
Gary B. Hirsch
gbhirsch@ comcast.net
7 Highgate Road
Wayland MA 01778
USA
effectiveness of different sd-based learning approaches e.g. ‘using’ versus
“building models’. A diagnostic instrument for sd-based learning approaches
has recently been published (Hillen 2004). The central question has been at
which level of higher order thinking the students were able to express their
learning residue. From a system dynamics view the existing diagnostic
approaches which stress declarative knowledge or sometimes structural
knowledge seem to be insufficient because of the missing perspective to
feedbacks and to dynamics. In the developed approach the policy concept
sensu FORRESTER (1968) becomes interpreted as a quality of knowledge
and represents the basis of the diagnostic approach. To be able to define an
appropriate policy or to be aware of policy concepts is probably an essential
competence in business administration. This meets the demands within
enterprise settings. Moreover the use of the policy concept avoids a break
between the learning and the measurement approach. To take this concept
into consideration can be seen as an advancement for measurement
approaches.
Modeling the Dynamics of Health Care Services for
Improved Chronic Illness Management
System dynamics models have shown considerable value for planning and
designing chronic illness management (CIM) programs. Such planning
should take into account the need for sufficient capacity in health care
delivery systems to accommodate the additional workloads created by CIM
programs. Without the necessary capacity, feedback effects may undercut
the effectiveness of these programs or even threaten their viability. After
discussing, in the form of general propositions, the interplay between CIM
and delivery system capacity, we present two relevant SD applications. One
uses a model of a diabetic patient population to evaluate the contribution of
clinical care specialists, community nurses who assist patients in a CIM
program. The other application uses a health care simulator to demonstrate
the need for coordination between improvements in care delivery and the
implementation of CIM programs. The paper concludes with a discussion of
future work that can be done in this area with system dynamics modeling.
Modeling the Consequences of Major Incidents for
Health Care Systems
Health care systems are complex entities that are difficult enough to operate
under normal circumstances. Catastrophes such as natural disasters or
terrorist acts can have severe impacts on health care systems by overloading
them with casualties. At the same time, these catastrophes can greatly reduce
health systems’ capacity for dealing with this demand by damaging health
care facilities or causing a loss of critical services such as electric power or
telecommunications. This paper describes a System Dynamics model that
has been used to simulate the effects of major incidents on health care
systems. The model can simulate a variety of events from tornadoes or
explosions that occur in a short period of time to epidemics that evolve over
a number of days. These events can be simulated with or without assuming
damage to health facilities and injuries to health personnel. An important use
of the model is evaluating various investments that can be made (e.g.,
backup capacity, stockpiles of pharmaceuticals) that reduce the vulnerability
of health care systems to these incidents. The model can be used as a
standalone simulator or in connection with models of other critical
infrastructures.
68 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Paul Holmstrém
paul@ holmstrom.se
Paul Holmstrom Management AB
Fallstromsgatan 8
SE-431 41 Molndal
Sweden
Marie Elf
marie.elf@ Itdalarna.se
Chalmers University of Technology
791 33 Falan
Sweden
Jack B. Homer
jhomer@ comcast.net
Homer Consulting
3618 Avalon Court
Voorhees NJ 08043
USA
Andrew P. Jones
apjones@ sustainer.org
Sustainability Institute
8 Lynmar Avenue
Asheville NC 28804 USA
Donald A. Seville
dseville@ sustainer.org
The Sustainability Institute
3 Linden Road
Hartland VT 05048 USA
Joyce Essien
jessien@ sph.emory.edu
Emory University
Rollins School of Public Health
1518 Clifton Road NE
Atlanta GA 30322 USA
Peter S. Hovmand
phovmand@ wustl.edu
Washington University in St Louis
GWB School of Social Work
()
(S)
One Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
Saint Louis MO 63130 USA
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Staff Retention and Job Satisfaction at a Hospital
Clinic: A Case Study
In this study system dynamics has been used to explore staff retention and
job satisfaction at a maternity department, which was in an unfavourable
spiral of attrition after an expansion period. This raised the issue about how
to stop this downward spiral. To understand and ex-plore this a causal loop
diagram and a system dynamics model were developed, integrating factors
of attrition and hiring rates, workload and qualitative contents of the work.
The causal loop diagram shows an unbalanced system, which may spiral
favourably or unfavourably after a relatively small disturbance. The system
dynamics model shows that an unfavourable spiral may be reversed by
qualitative interventions. The conclusions are that system dynamics is an
interesting method, which may increase the understanding of the factors
determining staff retention, job satisfaction and work pressure in a hospital
setting. There is need for further examination of the qualitative factors
incorporated in the model.
The CDC's Diabetes Systems Modeling Project:
Developing a New Tool for Chronic Disease
Prevention and Control
The analytic tools presently used for planning and evaluating health policy
are not well suited to capture the dynamic complexity of chronic diseases,
which involve long delays between causes and health consequences. To
explore the potential of system dynamics for addressing chronic disease
policy, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
commissioned a dynamic model of diabetes prevalence and complications
that can be used for designing and evaluating intervention strategies. The
rapid growth in diabetes in the U.S. and elsewhere has been driven by a
similarly rapid growth in obesity, which is a leading risk factor. The model
was developed through a series of meetings over several months with
participants from the CDC Division of Diabetes Translation and other
Divisions with relevant expertise. The CDC and other public health
stakeholders may use the model for policy analysis at the national, state, and
local levels.
Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ cdc.gov
Cntrs for Disease Control & Prevention
Division of Adult & Community Health
4770 Buford Hwy NE MS K-67
Atlanta GA 30341 USA
Dara Murphy
dlm1@ cde.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
Division of Diabetes Translation
4770 Buford Hwy
Atlanta GA 30341 USA
Managing a Prosecutor's Domestic Violence
Caseload
This paper summarizes a single case study design of a prosecutor’s office
from 1998 to 2001 using a system dynamics modeling approach. Data
sources for the model building included numerical time series from the
prosecutor’s office Violence Against Women (VAW) database, key
informant interviews, and police reports. The specific problem modeled was
the prosecutor’s office could balance two competing goals: managing
caseloads and resources while trying to increase accountability. The study
69
Papers continued
Juan M. Huerta
juan.huerta@ usa.net
Prospective Decision Models Inc
14790 SW 142 Street
Miami FL 66230
USA
Lihlian Hwang
lihlian@ meu.edu.tw
Ming Chuan University
12F No 82 Chang Kang Yi
Hu Hsin Tsun
Gweishan Taoyuan 333 Taiwan
Makoto Ikeda
ikeda@ itakura.toyo.ac,jp
Toyo University
Izumino 1-1-1
Itakura-machi Oura-gun
Gunma-pref 374-0193 Japan
Kunio Nakamura
Toru Suetake
tohru.suetake@ jp.kpmg.com
Chuo University
Soshigaya 1-11-23
Setagaya-ku
Tokyo 157 Japan
proceeded in three distinct stages: descriptive models of the problem,
baseline model of the case flows, and revised model based on key informant
interviews. The main results included finding support for the hypothesis that
case dispositions were being affected by caseloads and the existence of a
feedback loop explaining the increase in female victims being arrested.
A System Dynamics Approach to Conflict
Resolution in Water Resources: The Model of the
Lerma-Chapala Watershed
A System Dynamics simulation model of the Lerma-Chapala watershed, in
Mexico, was built to develop an improved Surface Water Distribution
Agreement among five states of the Mexican Re-public and the national
water authorities. The model, the main analytical tool in a politically charged
and confrontational water resources allocation, has proven to be very useful
for conflict resolution because: [1] it presents an objective vision of the
complex reality being analyzed that enables its user to focus on the
watershed behavior; [2] it allows the stakeholders of this process to test the
policies that they deemed most im-portant to their own states, and [3] it
enables policymakers to examine the economic, social, environmental and
political impacts of the hydrological policies being considered.
A System Dynamics Model for the Financial
Problem of the National Health Insurance in
Taiwan
The National Health Insurance (NHI) program was officially launched in
Taiwan on | March 1995. The initial balance of revenues and expenditures
was stable, but there was a deficit from 1998 to 2001. Therefore, the Bureau
of NHI (BNHI) carried out some measures such as implementing the global
payment system, raising the premium rate and expanding the payroll-related
premium base. Although there was a surplus during 2002, what are the long-
tem influences of these policies?
A New Tool for Improving Planning Capability of
Local Government Staff
The key issue facing local Japanese government is improving the planning
capability of local government staff; municipal governments in particular
want to do more but lack the geo-political power. For example the city of
Tatebayashi, as well as the towns of Itakura and Meiwa located in the
Gunma prefecture are not well known to many Japanese people.
Unfortunately, these areas have long been ignored and without any serious
political representation mainly due to their geo-political location. Under
such conditions, improving the planning capability of those municipal
governments is required to further develop the local economy using the
present resources of the tourist industry. Professor Makoto Ikeda and Mr.
Kunio Nakamura developed a new Japanese ST/SD tools, SimTaKN, for
support developing models more easily. Using this new software in alliance
with municipal governments, referred to as MIT, an abbreviation of the
towns of Meiwa and Itakura, and the city of Tatebayashi, staff of the MIT
created very excellent plans. In this poster session, we hope to introduce
how new SimTaKN software is useful for developing ST/SD model and how
70 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Mohammad Saeid Jabal Aameli
jabal_ms@ yahoo.com
IUST University
Ali Reza Mir Mohammad Sadeghi
ammsadeghi@ yahoo.com
Imam Hossen University
Somayeh Alizadeh
s_alizadeh@ mail.iust.ac.ir
IUST University
Industrial Engineering Dept
Narmak Tehran
Tran
Ricardo Vicente Jaime Vivas
rivijavi@ hotmail.com
Corp Univ de Investigacion y Desar
Calle 9 No 23-55
Bucaramanga 7
Colombia
Arthur Janssen
arthur janssen@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Institut
CH-5232 Villigen
Switzerland
Stephan F. Lienin
stephan.lienin@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Institut
CH-5232 Villigen PSI
Switzerland
Fritz Gassmann
fritz. gassmann@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Institut
CH-5232 Villigen PSI
Switzerland
it could improve the planning capacity of Japanese local government staff
using the case studies of MIT.
System Dynamics as a Useful Tool for Value
Engineering
Value Engineering, Value Management and Value Analysis are terms which
refer to function oriented problem-solving techniques that have been
successfully applied world-wide to reduce costs, improve performance and
quality, and “add value” to products and services. System Dynamics
technique is used to study the dynamic behavior of a variety of complex
systems. This paper describes how system dynamics models can be created
to model changes and that occur in value over time. There are many
parameters were used to monitor changes in value that occurs as supply and
demand change. The value of all of the products is changed during time.
Some of them are changed in a short period of time for example day and
week, however the other period changes are years and decades. It is
important that this behavior can be simulated during this periods and System
Dynamics helps us to model all of these situations for the related model.
Keyword(s): System Dynamic, Value Engineering, Value Management,
Value Analysis, Simulation.
System Dynamics Modeling to Propose Educational
Policy and Computational Tools
This article presents a system dynamic model to represent the learning
process. The basis of model was proposed at the beginning of author's work
in educational software, and a former version was published in IV Spanish
American Educational Software Conference, in 1998. The present stage
results from theoretical research in education, implementation of the model
thru systems engineering projects, and rationalizing ideas ten years after the
start. The objective is not to give an exact quantitative measuring of
learning, but to understand its qualitative behaviour, which as occurs with all
systems, emerges because of the system structure, not because of the parts.
Assessing Strategies for the Market Introduction of
Natural Gas Vehicles in Switzerland
The market introduction of cars fueled with natural gas, a technically and
economically mature option to reduce air pollution, was studied for
Switzerland. Worldwide experiences have shown that the market
introduction is a complex dynamical problem. The process demands well
timed actions and investments of numerous stakeholder groups, from car
industry to gas companies and fueling stations, whilst economic chances and
risks are distributed highly unequally. Stakeholder analysis and system
dynamics modeling techniques were used to characterize the system. The
developed model incorporates all relevant stakeholders, and shows the
consequences and indirect feedbacks of their possible actions. It enables to
simulate numerous future scenarios and test different market stimulation
policies, yielding a better understanding of pitfalls and success factors.
Analyses identify difficulties in the market penetration process of gas cars.
For example, a critical balance between fueling station upgrade investments
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 71
Papers continued
Alexander Wokaun
alexander.wokaun@ psi.ch
Paul Scherrer Insitut
CH-5232 Villigen PSI
Switzerland
Eva Jensen
eva jensen@ fhs.mil.se
Swedish National Defence College
Dept of War Science PO Box 27805
SE-115 93 Stockholm
Sweden
CJ Kalin
cjkalin@ yahoo.com
University of San Francisco
2130 Fulton Street
San Francisco CA 94117 USA
Sylvia Shafto
sshafto@ ndnu.edu
Notre Dame de Namur University
1500 Ralston Avenue
Belmont CA 94002-1997 USA
Florian Kapmeier
florian. kapmeier@ po.uni-stuttgart.de
Universitat Stuttgart
Betriebswirtschaftliches Inst Abt IV
Keplerstr 17
70174 Stuttgart Germany
and gas car sales is needed. The approach of this balance is challenged by a
short supply of car types running on gas, unclear profitability expectations
for fuel station owners, and limited financial benefits for customers.
However, a considerable variety of policy options exists to foster successful
market introduction.
Impediments to the Understanding of a Simple
Dynamic System
Reasons for the weak ability, demonstrated by Jensen and Brehmer (2003,
System Dynamics Review, 19, 119-137), of undergraduate psychology
students to achieve a balance in a predator-and-prey system, were
investigated. Efforts to overcome identified obstacles by interface design
met with little success. A new study examined whether the participants were
at all able to understand the information provided, and they were. A
subsequent study investigated why the participants still did not benefit from
the information. Their results indicated that the participants were confused
when seeing the system as a whole. Their interpretations were more varied
than one might expect for such a small system. Creating shortcuts to the
understanding of dynamic systems does not appear feasible (perhaps the
participants simply lack natural understanding of such systems that can be
elicited by such short cuts). Efforts are probably better spent on finding
efficient ways of teaching system dynamics.
Enrollment Management Dynamics of Adult
Undergraduate Degree-Completion Business
Programs at Private Universities
This paper presents a general system dynamic model for enrollment
management of adult undergraduate degree completion programs at private
institutions. It focuses on a university goal of maintaining a quality business
education program given the rapidly changing business environment and
shifting demographics of the prospective student population. The model is
based on experiences of the authors with undergraduate degree completion
programs at two different private universities in California. The model is
concerned with the structures and decision points within the university
which create a successful program in the 'good times’, but fail to anticipate
and build for the 'bad times’. It is time to use system dynamic tools to focus
on characteristics which could stabilize enrollment for these degree
programs. We recommend that management explore strengthening student,
faculty and infrastructure quality, developing strong alumni programs for its
graduate, and supporting adult students through scholarships.
Findings From Four Years of Bathtub Dynamics at
Higher Education Institutions in Stuttgart
The ‘Bathtub Dynamics’ tasks, first introduced by Linda Booth Sweeney
and John Sterman in 2000, have been widely used by the System Dynamics
community around the world to challenge people’s stock and flow thinking
before being taught SD. Students at schools and universities have been
taught ‘Bathtub Dynamics’. The instructors’ motivation was often to enlarge
the sample size and hence to participate in the longitudinal analysis started
by John Sterman and Linda Booth Sweeney and also to learn about their
own students’ systems thinking skills. We have been taking part in this
72 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Philip Keenan
phil.keenan@ gm.com
General Motors
MC482-C09-C76 PO Box 300
300 Renaissance Center
Detroit MI 48265-3000
USA
Mark Paich
m.paich@ att.net
Decisio Consulting Inc
201 Linden Street 3202
Fort Collins CO 80524
USA
Gail Kelly
gail.kelly@ csiro.au
CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
GPO Box 284
Canberra ACT 2601
Australia
Paul Walker
paul.walker@ csiro.au
CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
GPO Box 284
Canberra ACT 2601
Australia
Andreas Kemper
kempera@ gmx.net
European Business School
Schloss Reichartshausen
65203 Oestrich-Winkel Germany
Florian Khuen
ongoing research project since Fall 2000. The present paper discusses the
recent results of ‘Bathtub Dynamics’ at the Universitat Stuttgart and at the
Stuttgart Institute of Management of Technology (SIMT). Overall, students’
performance was poor and therefore confirms previous studies. The results
contribute to the research as the two groups studied were very different
regarding the demographical data and also performed differently.
Modeling General Motors and the North American
Automobile Market
This article discusses General Motors' North American Enterprise Model, a
system dynamics model of the entire North American automobile market.
The Enterprise Model takes a broad look across the corporation and its
marketplace, combining internal activities such as engineering,
manufacturing and marketing with external factors such as competition for
consumer purchases in the new and used vehicle marketplaces. Eight groups
of manufacturers compete monthly for a decade across eighteen vehicle
segments, making segment-by-segment decisions about price, volume and
investment. The model enables Monte-Carlo analysis of alternative
strategies. The goal is to find and assess the likely impact of improved
strategies for managing the business that are robust across uncertainty about
consumers, competitors, and the macro-economy. This article presents a
high level overview of the model. We discuss why and how the model was
built and what sorts of results came from it. We discuss software tools we
wrote to supplement Vensim: a profiling tool for finding inefficient equation
formulations, and a syntax coloring tool for automatically color coding
Vensim sketch diagrams according to selected criteria. Finally, we discuss
the limitations of the System Dynamics paradigm for large models, and how
Agent Based Models might complement traditional system dynamics.
Community-Level Systems Thinking
Regions are evolutionary and dynamic, and examining the notion of
sustainability requires a new way of thinking about systems and
communities. Improving the sustainability of a region must take into account
the interconnections and interdependence of the economic, social,
environmental and governance systems. Pursuing the goal of sustainability
requires continual monitoring and reassessment. The Regional Development
Futures (RDF) framework developed by a multidisciplinary group of
scientists in Australia is being used to develop location-specific
sustainability options. The methods and techniques combine systems
thinking and collegiate research approaches. The RDF provides processes
that ensure ‘the future is everyone’s business’, as well as simulation
modelling underpinned by quantitative data to allow evidence-based
decision-making. A central feature of the framework is ensuring regions
acquire the systems processes, skills and systems tools to ensure sustained
learning. Examples from a number of case studies are used to demonstrate
the usefulness of the approach.
Corporate Restructuring Dynami
Analysis
A Case Study
Corporate restructuring has recently been subject to vast criticism on the
grounds of the low turnaround success rate and the high level of
insolvencies. Our analysis goes beyond this discussion by investigating the
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 73
Papers continued
Naeem U. Khan
n.khan@ adfa.edu.au
University of New South Wales
Univ Coll Australian Defence Force
School of Aerospace Civil and Mech Eng
Campbell Canberra ACT 2601
Australia
Alan Charles McLucas
amclucas@ adfa.edu.au
Australian Defence Force Academy
UNSW School of Aerospace Civ & Mec Eng
Northcott Drive Campbell ACT 2600
Australia
Keith Thomas Linard
keith@ linard.net
Ankie Consulting Pty Ltd
134 Gisborne Road
Bacchus Marsh Victoria 3340
Australia
Ashraf Adel Khattab
a.khattab@ yallamisr.com
Yalla Online SAE
2 Iran Street
Dokki Giza
Egypt
Khaled Wahba
khaled wahba@ riti.org
Cairo University
Faculty of Engineering
11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211
Egypt
inherent complexity of restructurings as a critical success factor with a
particular focus on portfolio restructurings. Based on theoretical findings we
develop a system dynamics model for a case study in portfolio restructuring.
Thereafter, we evaluate this research approach in the outlined context and
derive a roadmap for subsequent research. Results of the analysis indicate
that the complexity of restructurings can be reduced to a reasonable level
with a system dynamics model. Further, the model enables a comprehensive
sensitivity analysis that allows management to develop an intuition for the
underlying dynamics. The key implication is that managers should consider
system dynamics models complementary to conventional modeling, as the
conceptual and numerical benefits can outweigh the related costs.
Development of a Reference Mode for
Characterization of the Salinity Problem in the
Murray Darling Basin
Reference modes are the patterns of dynamic behaviour produced by
feedback structures linking variables considered key to a specific problem.
Identifying reference modes can be a challenge when data is scanty or
available from a variety of sources and presented at different levels of
aggregation. Lack of unequivocal reference modes can lead to ambiguity and
conflict among stakeholders. This paper describes an attempt to identify and
specify reference modes for the problem of dryland salinity. The method
suggested by Saeed (2002) was applied. Dryland salinity in the Murray
Darling Basin of Australia is used as a case study. The extent of the salinity
problem in the Murray Darling Basin is described. Sources and availability
of data for key salinity parameters are then evaluated. Insights gained from
application of Saeed’s method are discussed. Shortcomings of the method
can be reduced through extensive and close involvement of stakeholders
right from earliest stages when attempting to identify the preliminary model
boundary.
Operational Challenges that Confront the
Profitability of DSL for Internet Service Providers
in Egypt: A System Dynamics Approach
The Digital Subscribers Lines (DSLs) services were considered one of the
most important sources of revenues that the Internet Service Providers
(ISPs) used to depend on in generating profits. Since the evolution of the
Internet DSL services in Egypt in year 2000, the market had witnessed
several transformations that ended up with the introduction of the
Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Lines (ADSL) model in January 2002. The
ADSL technology in the Egyptian Internet market had arrived accompanied
with negative effects on other dedicated DSL services. The researchers
worked on analyzing the challenges that affected the profitability of the DSL
for the ISPs in Egypt from two levels a macro level which includes all the
challenges whether external or internal and a micro level which focuses on
the operational challenges only. A system Dynamics methodology has been
adopted in this paper. At the end, data gathered from interviews as well as
secondary data was fed into a system dynamics model, in order to be able to
predict the effect of changing any of the operational variables and its effect
on the profitability of the DSL.
74 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Peter Klaas
pkl@samsdu.dk
University of Southern Denmark
Dept of Organizational Mgt
Campusvej 55
DK 5230 Odense M
Denmark
Miroljub Kljajic
miroljub.kjjajic@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor
Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a
$1-4000 Kranj Slovenia
Davorin Kofjac
davorin.kofjac@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor
Faculty of Organizational Science
Kidriceva 55a
4000 Kranj Slovenia
Andrej Skraba
andrej.skraba@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor
Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a
S1-4000 Kranj Slovenia
Vladimir Koltchanov
vladimir. koltchanov.atn.sa@ wanadoo.fr
ATN
15 rue de Louvre
75001 Paris
France
Philippe Casanova
ph.casanova@ atn-france.com
ATN
15 Rue du Louvre
75001 Paris
France
Toward a Concept of Dynamic Fit in Contingency
Theory
This paper utilizes System Dynamics (SD) methodology to preliminary
assess recent dispositions for dynamics and disequilibrium in Contingency
Theory (CT). These are important, since CT has received continous critique
for being insufficient in explaining structural adaptation. Focusing on the
design process, our analysis finds that these dispositions seem to have
substantial potential for dealing with dynamics. However, we also find that
existing CT research strategiges on organizational fit are rendered
inapplicable to such dealings. We therefore propose a concept for dynamic
fit and sketch two different strategies for its implementation in future CT
research; one for axiomatic and one for applied research. We conclude the
paper with an agenda for future resarch, demonstrating the role which SD
may play in its implementation. Key words: Structural organization design;
Contingency Theory; System Dynamics; Fit; Viability.
Warehouse Optimization in an Uncertain
Environment
This paper describes the warehouse stock optimization using two
optimization algorithms for products belonging to different classes
according to ABC and XYZ analysis. For simulation mathematical tool
Matlab was used. The basic system dynamics model of the warehouse was
built according to system dynamics methodology and then validated. Several
ordering strategies were analyzed with a goal of producing lower total
warehousing costs than the actual costs provided by the observed company.
Together with total costs two restrictions had to be considered: no stockouts
should occur and the warehouse capacity should not be exceeded.
Valter Rejec
valter.rejec@ iskra-ae.com
Iskra Avtoelektrika dd
Polje 15
5290 Sempeter pri Gorici Slovenia
SimTour: The Simulation Model of the Foreign
Tourist Flow to France
The simulation model SimTour was elaborated on the demand of the French
Ministry of the Tourisme to make possible the tests of various scenarios of
the foreign tourists frequentation evolution in France at a 5 -10 years
horizon, and more anticipate the actions to be carried out.SimTour is the
System Dynamics model. The model approach presents the following
aspects: Potential Market trends of the tourists,Evolution of the capacity and
reception quality for the tourists in France, Evolution of the capacity
reception quality for the tourists in the competitor countries of
France,Relative Attractivity of France and another competitor countries,
Generation of the tourists flows. The SimTour model was created and
calibrated by using Vensim software. Two types of the scenarios were tested
with the SimTour model.The various tests of sensitivity of the model’s
parameteres and then the simulations of the contrasted scenarios showed a
reasonable and coherent model behavior: all the subsets react in a coherent
way with the variations of the parameters and the decision’s variables.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 75
Papers continued
Birgit Kopainsky
birgit.kopainsky@ iaw.agrl.ethz.ch
Swiss Federal Inst of Technology
Sonneggstrasse 92
CH-8092 Zurich
Switzerland
Peter Rieder
peter.rieder@ iaw.agrl.ethz.ch
ETH Zentrum
Agricultural Economies
CH-8092 Zurich
Switzerland
Matti-Mikael Koskinen
matti-mikael koskinen@ tukkk.fi
Turku School of Econ & Business Admin
Rehtorinpellonkatu 3
FIN-20500 Turku
Finland
Olli-Pekka Hilmola
olli-pekka.hilmola@ tukkk.fi
Turku School of Econ and Bus Adm
Logistics
Rehtorinpellonkatu 3
FIN-20500 Turku
Finland
Veasna Kum
veasna_kum@ yahoo.com
Sirindhorn International Inst of Tech
Environmental Technology Program
PO Box 22 Thammasat Rangsit
Pathumthani 12121 Thailand
Alice Sharp
alice@ siit.tu.ac.th
Sirindhorn International Inst of Tech
Environmental Technology Program
PO Box 22 Thammasat Rangsit
Pathumthani 12121 Thailand
Processes and Determinants of Rural Development
in Switzerland
In peripheral micro-regions in Switzerland, population decline, demographic
change, and a narrowing economic base constrain future development
perspectives and threaten the fulfilment of the national policy goal of a
decentralised settlement. At the same time, Swiss regional policy is
undergoing fundamental changes. Instead of distributive measures, emphasis
is given to the competitiveness of rural localities and to local initiatives. This
implies an increasing need for policy concepts and analyses based on an
integrated view of the processes and actors affecting rural development. The
paper focuses on the local dimension of employment and population
dynamics in rural Switzerland and on an ex-ante analysis of development
perspectives. The simulation model developed for this purpose is based on
the literature in regional economics and rural studies and combined with
insights from related fields such as urban dynamics and innovation
management. Model analysis emphasizes the need for national and regional
policy concepts that focus on the support of local actors to bring about new
development routines.
Investment Cycles in Newbuilding Market of Ice-
Strengthened Oil Tankers
Investment cycles and their modeling have been under interest of system
dynamics from its early days. Most often these cycles are caused by the
uncertain profitability expectations involved in the long-term large capital
investments as well as delayed manufacturing process of these needed
buildings, machines and/or equipment. This paper is concentrated to the
investment decisions of newbuilding market of class I A ice-strengthened oil
tankers. In the European oil transport market these tankers are required only
in the Baltic Sea region, and especially in the oil terminals of Gulf of
Finland. The demand for capacity of these special class tankers can be
derived from the handling capacity available in the most important Russian
oil export terminal, Primorsk. However, in the near future planned capacity
enlargements in Primorsk will create additional dynamics for the results.
According to the simulation results we argue that terminal capacity could not
be used in full scale in the near future, if the use of appropriate ice-
strengthened tanker capacity is favored. If this ice-strengthened policy is
followed, this class of tankers will face boom in newbuilding market, which
is estimated to last at least for next ten years.
An Attempt to Better Understand Waste Recovery
Policies in a Solid Waste Management System in
Cambodia
There is an economic reason to extend the useful life of the landfill because
once the old landfill is filled, the new one can be found only at greater
distance, and this increases remarkably the transportation cost. Therefore,
waste has to be recovered as much as possible. To do this, in developing
countries context, small scale composting promotion is widely accepted and
the contribution of informal recycling is also widely recognized. The
question remains to what extent waste can be diverted if these two sectors
are integrated into the waste management system. Can composting and
informal recycling contribute significantly to the waste diversion without
16 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Napat Harnpornchai
napat@ siittu.ac.th
Sirindhorn International Inst of Tech
Civil Engineering Program
PO Box 22 Thammasat Rangsit
Pathumthani 12121 Thailand
Martin H. Kune
mkunc@ london.edu
London Business School
Regent's Park
London NWI 4SA
UK
John D. W. Morecroft
jmorecroft@ london.edu
London Business School
Regent's Park
London NW1 4SA
UK
Martin H. Kunc
mkunc@ london.edu
London Business School
Regent's Park
London NWI 4SA
UK
David C. Lane
d.c.lane@ Ise.ac.uk
London School of Economics & Poli Sci
Interdisciplinary Inst of Management
Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE UK
Elke Husemann
other supporting policies? To create a platform for discussion and learning, a
model is established. The model in this paper is based on the system
dynamics (SD) approach. The simulation results with the data collected in
Phnom Penh city, Cambodia, show that waste recovery through small-scale
composting and informal recycling cannot contribute significantly to the
waste diversion without other supporting policies.
Dynamics of Competitive Industries: A Micro
Behavioral Framework
Most published work in business dynamics is conducted either at the level of
the individual firm or at the level of an industry comprising an aggregate of
similar firms. However, there are situations where the performance of
industries is better understood by modelling the behaviour of competing
individual firms. When firms in the same industry adopt quite different
views of the best set of resources and the overall system of resources in the
industry is tightly interconnected, it is important to model the heterogeneity
of rival firms. We propose a micro-behavioural approach that captures the
essential interactions between firms. To illustrate our approach we run a
series of experiments using Fish Banks, Ltd. to show the wide range of firm
and industry performance arising from such heterogeneity. We further
develop our micro-behavioural approach into a framework for understanding
the dynamics and evolution of industries based on selected ideas from
system dynamics, the resource-based view of the firm and managerial
cognition.
Simulating the Evolution of Industries Using a
Dynamic Behavioral Model
Investment decisions determine that not only the evolution of industries is
hard to forecast with certainty but also industries may have different
dynamic behaviour and evolutionary paths. In this paper we present a
behavioural framework to simulate the evolution of industries. Two factors
determine the dynamic behaviour of an industry: managerial decision-
making and the interconnected set of resources. Managerial decision-making
significantly affects the dynamic behaviour of firms. Bounded rational
managers define rates of asset stock accumulation to achieve a competitive
advantage using different mental models. However, the set of interconnected
internal and external resources existing at industry level affects the expected
performance of the firms. Consequently, the effect of the feedback structure
existing in the industry, which consists of managers in competing firms
making similar decisions over an interconnected set of resources, determines
that the dynamically contingent behaviour of firms influence on the industry
evolutionary paths. In our simulations, we found that simple managerial
choices, such as the definition of a market share or an expected market size,
lead to diverse firm and industry performances even though management of
competing firms emphasises different sets of resources required to carry out
their strategy.
M
ie Marketing Strategy Formation with System
Dynamics: Toward a Multi-Disciplinary
Adoption/Diffusion theory of Cinema-Going
This paper proposes a formal theory for the causal mechanisms underlying
viewing figures for cinema films. It draws upon a range of diffusion
theories, introducing them by using specific illustrations from sociology,
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 77
Papers continued
Richard Langheim
richlangheim@ yahoo.com
Ramapo College of New Jersey
37 Mary Lane
Waldwick NJ 07463
USA
Kevin Laws
klaws@ edfac.usyd.edu.au
University of Sydney
Faculty of Education (A35)
Sydney NSW 2006
Australia
Robert J. McLeod
mcleod@ tphs.nsw.edu.au
Pittwater House Schools
PO Box 244
Manly NSW 1655
Australia
epidemiology and marketing. These theories are employed in the
construction of a system dynamics model which is then used to explore the
marketing of movies. In this model these mechanisms are used to represent
interest-based word-of-mouth effects, advertising, experience-based word-
of-mouth effects, positive network externalities and disengagement. The
model generates a range of behaviour modes and these are described. They
offer one possible explanation for why the product lifecycle of many movies
is relatively short. By demonstrating the relevance of the various model
mechanisms to this particular phenomenon the paper also re-emphasises the
isomorphic nature of the constituent diffusion theories. Finally, the model
also has potential both for further extension and for use in supporting policy
making in the actual social system that was modelled.
The State of Education: An Examination of
Systems Thinking in the K-12 Environment in the
United States
The movement to integrate systems thinking into the pre-college curriculum
has been championed by Forrester, Senge and Richmond and has been
supported by a variety of groups. These efforts have had a clear impact upon
some schools and classrooms. The implementation leaders in the schools,
such as Fisher, Heinbokel and Potash, and Sheetz, have, at times,
encountered and overcome resistance to adopting a systems thinking
approach. This poster presentation will review the initial findings of
interviews with individuals involved in advocating and introducing the use
of systems thinking in the pre-college classroom. Using the Apple
Classroom of Tomorrow research as a framework, we have examined the
phases that teachers have passed through; entry, adoption, adaptation,
appropriation and invention, as innovations have been introduced into the
schools. We have probed the thinking of educators to identify the factors that
lead to movement to the next stage of utilization or withdrawal from the
system. Our initial model of the spread of systems thinking may be useful to
educators and others who are interested in introducing systems thinking into
schools.
Case Study and Grounded Theory: Sharing some
Alternative Qualitative Research Methodologies
with Systems Professionals
Tensions in practitioner research are endemic and inescapable but if these
tensions are embraced rather than avoided, they can often provide access to
useful energy and sensitivity, which in turn can be used to inform practice.
Systems research professionals adopt a wide platform of research
methodologies when they engage in research projects. These research
methodologies range from the use of systems computer simulation models to
highly developed quantitative statistical models. Some systems researches
have engaged the full gamut of qualitative methodologies and others have
adopted the soft systems approach. The aim of this paper is to review two
methodologies that are available to systems researchers and practitioners and
to analyse the effectiveness of these methodologies in gaining valid and
reliable research outcomes. The paper will focus on the use of case study
and grounded theory as possible methodologies for systems researchers to
consider for future research projects. Both methodologies have been
successfully used by the authors to gain cultural change in organisations
striving to become learniing organisations.
78 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Reda M. Lebcir
reda lebcir@ imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Tanaka Business School
Exhibition Road $ Kensington Campus
London SW7 2AZ UK
Richard Coker
richard.coker@ Ishtm.ac.uk
London Schl of Hygiene & Tropical Med
Keppel Street
London WCIE 7HT UK
Rifat Atun
Zee Woon Lee
zee94@ neo.tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
c/o Professor David N Ford
Dept Civil Engineering
College Station TX 77843-3136
USA
David N. Ford
davidford@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
Department of Civil Engineering
College Station TX 77843-3136
USA
Nitin R. Joglekar
joglekar@ bu.edu
Boston University
School of Management
595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston MA 02215
USA
Man-Hyung Lee
manlee@ cbnu.ac.kr
Chungbuk National University
Dept of Urban Planning and Eng
48 Kaeshin-Dong Heungduck-Ku
Cheongju 361-763 Korea
Nam-Hee Choi
drnhchoi@ cjnc.ac.kr
Chongju National College
Samsung Apt 6-1506 Shinbong-Dong
Cheongju Chungbuk 361-796
Rep of Korea
(S)
Tuberculosis Transmission in Settings of High
Multidrug Resistant Tuberculosis and Explosive
Epidemics of HIV: A System Dynamics Approach
This study sought to determine the impact of an effective programme of
control of multi-drug resistant (MDRTB) on a population that is witnessing
an explosive HIV epidemic amongst injecting drug users (IDUs) where the
prevalence of MDRTB is already high. To analyse this impact, a system
dynamics (SD) simulation model representing the transmission of drug
sensitive tuberculosis (DSTB), MDRTB, and HIV was developed. The
model is used to predict the cumulative number of tuberculosis deaths under
two scenarios of programme effectiveness for MDRTB. The simulation
results indicate that in the presence of an immature HIV epidemic failure to
actively control MDRTB may result in approximately a third more deaths
than if effective treatment is given. As the HIV epidemic matures then the
impact of MDRTB grows substantially if MDRTB control strategies are
ineffective. The epidemiological starting point for these scenarios is present
in many regions within the former Soviet Union and this analysis suggests
control of MDRTB should be an urgent priority.
Resource Allocation Policy Design for Reduced
Project Duration
Minimizing duration is critical to success in many construction projects. As
a primary driver of progress and an effective management tool, resource
allocation among development activities can strongly influence durations.
Limitations and costs of improving development processes and increasing
resource quantities and productivities make improving resource allocation
policies an important source of schedule improvement. Policies for reduced
project duration are difficult to design and implement because of closed loop
flows of work that generate dynamic demand patterns and delays in shifting
resources among activities. Two policy features that managers can readily
impact and influence project durations are resource demand estimates and
resource adjustment times. These are used to describe allocation policies in a
simple system dynamics model. Optimal policies under perfect and limited
managerial control are described by testing myopic and foresighted policies
across a range of project complexities and adjustment times under both
deterministic and uncertain conditions. Counter-intuitive results include that
minimum delays do not produce minimum durations, myopic policies can
produce shorter durations than foresighted policies, and increasing
uncertainty decreases durations under certain conditions. The model is used
to explain these results and future research topics are discussed.
Green Belt Policy Change and Uninvited
Aftereffect in Seoul
This research revisits the basic premises defined by existing UD documents
and examines the feasibility of alternative UD models. As a specific
example, this research focuses on behavioral changes of urban dynamics if
the Green Belt areas in Seoul and the Capital Region as a whole are
readjusted. The measurements are based upon a series of simulation works
on the urban system, going beyond the traditional triplicate set of population,
housing, and business activities. This research estimates that the removal of
Green Belt control would definitely exert a significant impact on the urban
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 79
Papers continued
Tsuey-Ping Lee
tping@ mail.thu.edu.tw
Tunghai University
Department of Public Administration
181 Taichung-kang Rd Sec 3
Taichung Taiwan ROC
Jacques LeFévre
lefevrej@ libertysurf.fr
Idea.sim Ltd
3 Rue d'Orchies
Templeuve 59642
France
dynamics of Seoul. The government-initiated Green Belt cancellation,
however, would rather decrease the population size of Seoul and at the same
time result in deterioration of overall quality of life (QOL) in the long-run as
both Seoul and the Capital Region are interconnected by causal loops.
Sensitivity analysis suggests, among others, that Seoul may lose 1.5 million
or more people while the rest of the Capital Region would have to
accommodate most of the out-migrated Seoul population over the next three
decades.
Bridging Systems Thinking to Policy Networks:
An Application to Network Accountability Analysis
This study intends to propose a combination between systems thinking and
policy networks perspective in developing network accountability of
contracting out. Systems thinking and policy networks have applied to the
field of public policy for many years. Both are considered as new
perspectives and analytical tools for public policy analysis. Systems thinking
offers an effective and time-tested approach to uncover structural flaws that
hinder system performance. The concept of policy networks emphasizes
interdependent relations among network participants and encourages policy
analysts to focus on the resource exchanges in the network. Both approaches
share several characteristics, such as interdependence of the system parts /
network actors, multiple objectives in the network/system, power distributed
among system parts / network actors, and so forth. In the meanwhile, each of
them has distinctive point of view in analyzing the network/system. This
paper intends to examine the similar and different characteristics of both
approaches. With a goal toward enhancing existing traditional method for
public policy analysis, this study intend to explore a strategy of integrating
policy networks and systems thinking into network accountability
development.
Why and How Should We Replace the Tank-Pipe
Analogy of our Stock Flow Models by a Chemical
Process Metaphor
Abstract: At the 2002 Congress, the author presented a stock-flow language
replacing the tank-pipe analogy by a generalised chemical reaction. He
argued that it results often in more intuitive and less spaghetti-like stock-
Flow diagrams. The paper was well received by its reviewers but its
presentation was disappointing. Despite its confrontational character, it
elicited no reactions. Our hindsight was that we focused too much on the
new language and not enough on why the current method is unsatisfactory.
Henceforth, the present paper presents this detailed study, focusing on
tangible flows. Using models in population dynamics we present the basic
problem: a spaghetti aspect. We argue that, in addition, they do not match
our mental models.We show that a new metaphor, generalised reactions,
eliminates these problems. We show how to combine these reactions in an
intuitive and parsimonious map which may also be used in other applications
like Business Dynamics. We refer to our previous paper for a discussion of
the translation of these maps in computational models,“Kinetic Process
Graphs or KPGs” which complement the stock-flow diagramming method
currently used.
80 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Carlos A. Legna
clegna@ ull.es
La Laguna University
Dept of Institutional Economics
Camino de la Hornera
38071 La Laguna Islas Canarias Spain
Carina S. Gonzalez Gonzalez
cjgonza@ ull.es
La Laguna University
School of Computer Sciences
38071 La Laguna Tenerife
Spain
Elaine Lizeo
elizeo@ gvmail.br
Fundagao Getiilio Vargas
Escola de Administrago
Rua Ivai 656
Sao Caetano do Sul SP 09560-570 Brazil
Corey Lofdahl
clofdahl@ bos.saic.com
SAIC
Simulation and Info Technology Div
20 Burlington Mall Road Ste 130
Burlington MA 01803
USA
(S)
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
An Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) for
Public Decisions Using System Dynamics and Case
Base Reasoning (CBR)
This paper presents the design of an IDSS that allows the decision makers to
identify key issues that matter for the future of a social system and helps
them to improve the policy-making processes. The implementation is in
process. It combines IA techniques with qualitative models and System
Dynamics Simulation. The selection of strategies and policies for complex
social systems needs to take into account non-quantifiable variables. For this
reason, we build models that allow the treatment of these kinds of variables.
We propose a methodology divided into three phases. In the first one we
build a model and simulate particular scenarios, using this module as an
analysis tool. The results obtained by simulation are stored in a database and
are used as entries in the reasoning process. So, they are the start point of the
second phase. For this phase we use the CBR (Case Based Reasoning)
technique. The last phase produces different solutions, giving to the decision
maker explanations about pros and cons of these alternatives. IDSS is an
instrument to promote and facilitate the attainment of a coherence and
consensus between the decision makers.
Understanding the Learning Process in Work
Groups
Drawing on theories of organizational learning, group learning, group
dynamics and effectiveness, and using the system dynamics approach in
three case studies of work groups, this paper seeks to improve our
understanding of the factors influencing group learning and effectiveness in
organizations. I propose that the relationship between group effectiveness
and ineffectiveness is not symmetrical and is characterized by an
amplification phenomenon. Groups that present a low level of learning tend
to enter into a vicious cycle of low effectiveness or to stagnate, while groups
that present a high level of learning are able to identify sources of
ineffectiveness, manage limitations and implement the necessary changes to
recover or to elevate their level of effectiveness. Regarding work groups as
complex social systems, I suggest that the explanation of the level of
learning and effectiveness of a group lies in the interrelations of structural,
cognitive and behavioral factors in interpersonal contexts. Key words: group
learning, group dynamics, group effectiveness, leadership, organizational
learning, system dynamics.
Presenting System Dynamics to Social Scienti
An Economics Example
The social sciences provide a rich repository of open, interesting, and
unsolved questions that can benefit from the application of system dynamics
(SD). After “solving” a problem, SD researchers must present their results,
which is not as straightforward as it might seem. This study describes
lessons learned presenting system dynamics results to an economics
audience during the publication of Lofdahl (2002) and is organized
according to four dicta of Repenning (2003): 1) size your model
appropriately, 2) build the intuition of your reader, 3) do your homework,
and 4) choose your audience wisely. The study finds that the skills necessary
to perform and to communicate system dynamics research can be quite
different.
81
Papers continued
Ghsem Barid Loghmani
loghmani@ yazduni.ac.ir
Yazd University
Department of Mathematics
Yazd
Iran
Luis Lépez
lopezi@ mail.incae.ac.cr
INCAE Graduate School of Business
PO Box 960-4050
Alajuela 4050
Costa Rica
Luis F. Luna Reyes
lluna@ mail.udlap.mx
Universidad de las Americas Puebla (S)
Casa 5D Zona D Zona Residencial UDLA
Santa Catarina Martir
Cholula Puebla 72430
Mexico
Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh
mohammad@ attunegroup.com
Attune Group Inc
16 Regina Court Suite #1
Delmar NY 12054 USA
82
High Strong Order Implicit Runge-Kutta Methods
for Stochastic Ordinary Differential Equations
The modelling of many real life phenomena for which either the parameter
estimation is difficult, or which are subject to random noicy perturbation, is
often carried out by using stochastic ordinary differential equations
(SODEs). In this paper, a class of high strong order implicit Runge-Kutta
methods for SODEs is introduced.
Conflict Resolution and Group Decision-Making:
Exploring the Dynamics of Conflict Resolution at
the Group Level
Conflict resolution in decision-making groups is studied using a System
Dynamics model. The model is developed using a grounded-theory
approach. Some preliminary results are shown. The results seem to be in line
with much empirical research done in the management literature about
conflict and conflict resolution at the group level of analysis. Ideas for
further research are discussed.
Emergence of the Governance Structure for
Information Integration across Governmental
Agencies: A System Dynamics Approach
The Criminal Justice Information Technology (CJIT) group of New York
State (NYS) was tasked with developing a framework to fulfill the goal of
giving users of criminal justice data and information systems “one-stop
shopping” access to the information needed to accomplish their mission. The
action research team of the Center for Technology in Government (CTG)
collaborated for an eight-month period during 2003 with the CJIT group to
accomplish this task. This poster session reports on a system dynamics
224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
David F. Andersen
david andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
315B Milne Hall
135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 101 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222 USA
Tamas Bodor
tbodor@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road Suite 301
Albany NY 12205 USA
G. Brian Burke
bburke@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road Suite 301
Albany NY 12205 USA
Donna Canestraro
dcanestr@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road Suite 301
Albany NY 12205 USA
Luis F. Luna Reyes
lluna@ mail.udlap.mx
Universidad de las Americas Puebla
Casa 5D Zona D Zona Residencial UDLA
Santa Catarina Martir
Cholula Puebla 72430 Mexico
Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh
mohammad@ attunegroup.com
Attune Group Inc
16 Regina Court Suite #1
Delmar NY 12054 USA
David F. Andersen
david andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
315B Milne Hall
135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 101 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222 USA
model for understanding the dynamics of the social processes and
collaboration that took place during this project. This model building effort
is looking for the development of a theory of interorganizational
collaboration. The model is being developed in facilitated group model
building (GMB) sessions with the team at CTG.
Anthony M. Cresswell
tcresswell@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road
Albany NY 12205 USA
Sharon S. Dawes
sdawes@ cig.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
Albany NY 12222 USA
Fikret Demircivi
fdemircivi@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road Suite 301
Albany NY 12205 USA
Carrie Schneider
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road Suite 301
Albany NY 12205 USA
Fiona Thompson
fthompson@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
Albany NY 12222
Yi-jung Wu
wyi-jung@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road Suite 301
Albany NY 12205 USA
Theresa A. Pardo
tpardo@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road
Albany NY 12205 USA
(S)
Scripts for Group Model Building: Modeling the
Emergence of Governance for Information
Integration across Government Agencies
The system dynamics group at Albany has been developing approaches to
decision conferencing using a combination of group facilitation techniques
linked to projected computer models in the room for more than 20 years.
Over the years, the group has developed a series of pieces of small group
processes to build system dynamics models with groups, i.e. scripts. This
poster documents the scripts and products for a GMB effort using the
approaches developed at Albany from November 2003 to March 2004. The
GMB process reported here has several characteristics that make it different
from most other experiences in the group. While the common setting
involves managers interested in tackling a specific problem, this work
involves a research team interested in building theory about the complexity
of intergovernmental information integration. Additionally, the reported
GMB process has taken place in small sessions of two to three hours, while
the common practice at Albany involves intensive one or two-day meetings.
In this way, the poster will include general thoughts about the implications
of these differences for the GMB process.
Carrie Schneider
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road Suite 301
Albany NY 12205 USA
Anthony M. Cresswell
tcresswell@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road
Albany NY 12205 USA
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 83
Papers continued
Tamas Bodor
tbodor@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road Suite 301
Albany NY 12205 USA
G. Brian Burke
bburke@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road Suite 301
Albany NY 12205 USA
Donna Canestraro
dcanestr@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road Suite 301
Albany NY 12205 USA
Debra A. Lyneis
lyneisd@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
PO Box 121
Weston VT 05161 USA
Lees N. Stuntz
stuntzin@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
One Keefe Road
Acton MA 01720 USA
Rob Quaden
rquaden@ carlisle.mec.edu
Carlisle Public Schools.
83 School Street
Carlisle MA 01741 USA
Alan Ticotsky
aticotsky@ carlisle. mec.edu
Carlisle Public Schools.
83 School Street
Carlisle MA 01741 USA
Kambiz E. Maani
kmaani@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
Business School Tamaki Division
Private Bag 92019
Glen Innes Auckland AK 1005
New Zealand
Anson Kin Tat Li
aktJi@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
PO Box 105465 Auckland Central
Auckland
New Zealand
Sharon S. Dawes
sdawes@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
Albany NY 12222 USA
Fikret Demircivi
fdemircivi@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road Suite 301
Albany NY 12205 USA
Fiona Thompson
fthompson@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
Albany NY 12222
Yi-jung Wu
wyi-jung@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road Suite 301
Albany NY 12205 USA
Theresa A. Pardo
tpardo@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Government
187 Wolf Road
Albany NY 12205 USA
The Shape of Change: Introducing Teachers and
Students to the Basics of System Dynamics
System dynamics has a great deal to offer to K-12 education — much more
than building computer models. With the system dynamics approach,
students are actively engaged in problem solving, working together in teams,
discovering similar patterns of behavior across disciplines, and asking much
better questions, all in the process of building and using computer models.
But, because this approach departs significantly from traditional teacher-
centered methods, and because there is a lot to learn at once, it is often
difficult for willing teachers to adopt. Also, for many beginners the technical
language, the math, and the computer focus of system dynamics can be early
obstacles. In Carlisle, Massachusetts, two Waters Foundation systems
mentors have faced this challenge while helping their colleagues use system
dynamics in their classrooms. They have developed a series of lessons based
on games and other hands-on classroom activities for students in Grades 3-8.
Students and teachers learn about patterns of behavior, basic stocks and
flows, simple feedback processes, discovery learning, and teamwork. The
teachers hope that these lessons will draw a larger audience of teachers to
system dynamics, and that some of those teachers will use this foundation to
take the next step toward computer modeling. The poster session will
present several of these lessons.
Dynamics of Managerial Intervention in Complex
Systems
Research as well as decades of working with managers from diverse
cultures, nationalities, and industries has exposed consistent counter
productive patterns of behaviour in relation to decision making in complex
systems. In this regard, there appears an unmistakeable tendency for
managers to “over intervene” in the systems (companies, organisations,
units, etc) they are responsible for. Hence, generating unnecessary
fluctuations and instability in their organisations. Maani, et al (2004), and
Sterman, et al (bathtub dynamics, 2000; supply chain system, 1989) have
studied these phenomenon in experimental and simulated environments,
84 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Victoria Mabin
vicky.mabin@ vuw.ac.nz
Victoria University of Wellington
Victoria Management School
PO Box 600
Wellington 6001 New Zealand
John Davies
john.davies@ vuw.ac.nz
Victoria University of Wellington
Victoria Management School
Pipitea Campus PO Box 600
Wellington 6000 New Zealand
James F. Cox
jcox@ uga.edu
University of Georgia
Terry College of Business
Department of Management
Athens GA 30602 USA
Wai-ming Mak
mswmmak@ polyu.edu.hk
Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Dept of Management and Marketing
Hung Hom Kowloon 00001
Hong Kong China
John E. Butler
msbutler@ polyu.edu.hk
Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Dept of Management and Marketing M933
Hung Hom
Kowloon Hong Kong
Abhijit Mandal
abhijit.mandal@ whs.ac.uk
Warwick Business School
ORS Group
Gibbet Hill Road
Coventry CV4 7AL UK
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
©)
respectively. Anecdotal evidence as well as research results highlight a
number of mental models and assumptions held by managers. This paper
proposes seven managerial assumptions and will empirically test their
validity.
The Theory of Constraints and Systems Dynamics:
A Suitable Case for Multi-Methodology
Prior work using the classificatory frameworks of Mingers, Mingers and
Brocklesby has proven useful in understanding the complementary nature
and characteristics of traditional Operational Research/Management Science
(OR/MS), Theory of Constraints (TOC) and systems methodologies, by
examining the philosophical assumptions that underpin them. This paper
uses a case illustration to demonstrate how the specific methods and
methodologies known as TOC can be used to complement the use of
traditional systems approaches involving the associated tools of Systems
Dynamics (SD) such as Causal Loop Diagramming (CLD) and to develop a
better understanding of operational and strategic decision-making. In doing
so, the paper surfaces the systemic qualities of TOC methodologies, methods
and tools, and identifies the communality and complementarity of TOC and
SD approaches to problem solving.
Membership Growth Goals Meet Demographic
Trends: The Case of Hong Kong Scouting
System dynamics models have often been used to help organizations deal
with real or potential problems. This research build a system dynamics
model that attempts to link the membership growth goals of the Scout
Association of Hong Kong (SAHK) with the reality of a declining birth rate
and restrictive immigration policies. The initial model indicates that larger
proportions of available youth would have to be attracted to scouting to
maintain their current market share with respect to youth served, and this
would have to be greatly expanded to accommodate membership growth
goals. Without additional immigration or a higher birth rate, the SAHK will
have to obtain overall levels of youth participation at almost three times their
current level, even with higher quality levels that attract a higher proportion
of eligible youth.
Dynamic Balance, Executive Management and
Differential Performance: A Resource-Based
Approach
In strategic management literature, strategic positioning and dynamic
capabilities have been recognized as rational and deliberate responses by the
top management team to a felt need for attaining a new strategic position.
This implies a certain delay between the stimulus, acknowledging the
85
Papers continued
Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
im7797@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Milne 318 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222USA
Gerald Marschke
marschke@ albany.edu
University at Albany
135 Western Avenue
Milne 308
Albany NY 12222 USA
Margarita Mediavilla
marga@ eis.uva.es
University of Valladolid
ETSII Paseo del Cauce s/n
Valladolid 47011 Spain
Luis Javier Miguel
luimig@ eis.uva.es
University of Valladolid
ETSII Paseo del Cauce s/n
Valladolid 47011 Spain
Ali Kerem Saysel
ali.saysel@ infomedia.uib.no
University of Bergen
System Dynamics Programme
PB 7800
5020 Bergen Norway
Leslaw Michnowski
kte@ psl.org.pl
Saint Cross University in Kielce
(S)
High School for Management in Legnica
Al 3 Maja 2 m 164
00-391 Warazawa Poland
stimulus and a considered response. This paper asserts that executive
management steps in to respond to certain stimuli much faster using
“dynamic balancing capabilities”. After defining dynamic balancing
capabilities, a series of simulation experiments (based on events in the
British life insurance industry) shows how heterogeneity in such a capability
may lead to the creation of differential performance and competitive
advantage among otherwise identical firms. This is the result of differential
accumulation in critical resource stocks through varying resource
interactions, initiated by the heterogeneity. The conclusion suggests that
concepts such as “key success factors” and “best practice” should not be
applied universally to a large variety of firms in a given industry. Rather
they need to be applied keeping in mind the context that may vary with time.
Exploring Change in Organizational Rule System
Learning Dynamics in Performance Measurement
The paper uses the case of the performance measurement system of the Job
Training Partnership Act (JTPA) of 1988 to articulate an endogenous theory
to explore the impact that changes in performance measurement systems
have in the way in which these systems evolve over time. A model of how
systems of rules in organizations are used and, over time, changed by
learning processes and rule-following preferences of their actors is
presented. In the model, the principal presents a system that the agent learns
how to use (and possibly game) over time. The mutual learning (agent’s
learning about opportunities present in the system and the principal’s
learning about the problems generated by the agents’ activities) creates
pressures to change the system and modify the existing rules. Implications of
the model results are presented.
Dynamics of Food-Prey-Predator Systems and
Agricultural Practices
Crop fields are complex systems where the basic crop interacts with species
that feed from it, and are, in turn, depredated or parasited by other species.
These relations create a dynamic system with several counterintuitive
behaviours. On the other hand agricultural practices based on pesticide
application have been subject to debate and the economic benefits of
chemical pesticides and their externalities are questioned. This paper
presents a food-prey-predator model of an agricultural system. The singular
dynamics of this system and the effects of pesticide application on it are
studied. There are many examples of agricultural plagues subject to
predation, each one having its particular dynamics, but the model presented
in this paper is a general one that aims to capture the most general features
of pests dynamics. The results show that the prey-predator dynamics is an
important fact to take into account if pesticides are applied, the effects of
several agricultural practices concerning pesticide application and the
development of pesticide resistances are investigated.
How to Avoid Global Catastrophe?: The
Information Basis for Sustainable Development
Policy and Economy
To avoid global catastrophe it is necessary to create a wisdom-based global
information society, which would be far-sighted and flexible. To achieve
sustainable development of the world society it is also necessary to possess
knowledge regarding the limits to growth and methods of overcoming them.
86 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Switbert F. L. Miczka
miczka@ gmx.com
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss $204
68131 Mannheim
Germany
Andreas Gréfler
agroe@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany
Thar A. Miklashevich
miklashevich@ yahoo.com
Belarusian National Technical Univ
65 Pr F Skaryny
Minsk 220013
Belarus
Fatma Hani Mohsen
fhmh@ yahoo.com
Regional Information Technology Inst
1A Hassan Sabri
Zamalek Cairo 11211
Egypt
Khaled Wahba
khaled wahba@ riti.org
Cairo University
Faculty of Engineering
11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211
Egypt
For these ends we have to build FEED FORWARD into the world’s
socioeconomic inter-relationships, based on large development and
widespread of the System Dynamics. We need commonly accessible World
(integrated and distributed) Sustainable Development Information System
for Monitoring, Prediction and Measurable Evaluation - of effects of policy,
work and other changes in the life conditions of human- and other beings.
These conclusions have been done by means of system analysis with general
conceptual model of reality: System of Life, which contains the knowledge
about the logic and dynamic of limits to growth as well as means for
crossing them in developmental way.
Merger Dynamics: A System Dynamics Analysis of
Post-Merger Integration Processes
Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have drawn the attention of researchers
for several decades now. Manifold viewpoints have been taken and
numerous factors apparently influencing the success of an M&A project
have been identified, leading to an extensive, yet extremely fragmented body
of knowledge. Although the logical strive for integration has been expressed
by several authors, in most cases the focus on small sections of M&As
persists. The aim of this study is to offer a different way of synthesis that
allows to test well-established theories of post-merger integration processes.
With the help of a literature-based system dynamics model and by analysing
the simulation runs it produces we are able to open up a new perspective on
the organisational processes which are dominant during post-merger
integration. Particular emphasis is put on the investigation of capability
transfers, the change of corporate culture and the employees’ perception of
the integration process.
Representations of the Chaotic Dynamics of Social
Systems: Mathematical Backgrounds
The general mathematical representation of hierarchical structure of
arbitrary system is analysed. Formal description of arbitrary hierarchy is
presented. General mathematical properties of the models of social structure
are studied. It is that such models are shown to be based on a non-standard
analysis. The origin of the probabilistic nature of social systems is studied.
The entropy and chaotic properties of the dynamical hierarchical system are
found. The general equations of the process of learning as a three-level
hierarchical process are presented.
Assessment of the Free Internet Access Project on
the Internet Market in Egypt: A System Dynamics
View
In January 2002 a major step was taken by the ministry of communication
and Information Technology in Egypt towards increasing the penetration of
the Internet through the launch of the “Free Internet” project. New Rules and
regulations were imposed on the ISPs of which; sharing their revenue with
TE from the Internet calls instead of the subscription fee. The research
revealed that telephone and computer penetration has a positive effect on the
penetration of the Internet in Egypt. Local content is another factor attracting
the users, but e-commerce is not yet mature in Egypt, so it does not actually
have a high effect. Although tariff is one of the factors limiting the number
of users in Egypt, it is not the main factor. The research also revealed that
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 87
Papers continued
Jonathan D. Moizer
j.moizer@ plymouth.ac.uk
University of Plymouth
Plymouth Business School
Drake Circus
Plymouth PL4 8AA
UK
Michael John Towler
michael.towler@ plymouth.ac.uk
University of Plymouth
Drake Circus
Plymouth Devon PL4 8AA
UK
Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh
mohammad@ attunegroup.com
Attune Group Inc
16 Regina Court Suite #1
Delmar NY 12054
USA
Edoardo Mollona
emollona@ cs.unibo.it
Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Department of Computer Science
Mura Anteo Zamboni 7
40127 Bologna
Italy
Vittorio Coda
vittorio.coda@ uni-bocconi.it
Universita Commerciale Luigi Bocconi
ISEA
Viale Isonzo 23
20135 Milano
Italy
competition between ISPs changed from a pricing competition to a
competition over content and differentiation. Data gathered from interviews
as well as secondary data were fed to a system dynamics model, in order to
be able to predict the future of the Internet market in Egypt in the coming
years.
Research and Development Resourcing When
Faced with Fundamental Market Dynamics
System dynamics has been used over a number of years to explore and
explain the role R&D can play in shaping the dynamics of a firm or industry.
This article describes how a dynamic simulation model can be built which
broadly characterises and captures the causal feedback structure and
performance behaviour inherent to a generic R&D system within a firm.
Alternative futures are played out to explore the long-term consequences of
a confluence of R&D resource decisions, coupled with changes to market
demand.
Bringing Systems Thinking to the Spreadsheet
While introducing Exposé, a new software package add-in to MS Excel, this
paper proposes a practical approach to bridge the gap between system
dynamics and spreadsheets. The use of spreadsheets has grown dramatically
since the release of VisiClac—the first spreadsheet software—in 1979.
Despite the widespread application of spreadsheet programs, tools and
techniques to support the development of spreadsheet models for complex
systems matured at sluggish rates. Exposé brings systems thinking
capabilities to the spreadsheet enabling users to understand, audit, analyze,
and communicate their spreadsheet applications more effectively. Exposé
interacts with spreadsheet in real-time and creates maps of interrelationships
in spreadsheets in the form of tree diagrams and feedback loops. It also
provides several tools to characterize the nature of the structure including
revealing the polarity of the interrelationships; translating cell reference
equations into "real equations" with fully spelled-out variable names;
identifying dynamic variables and stock variables. For policy analysis,
Exposé uses sliders and comparative graphs, both of which are embedded in
Microsoft Excel but inaccessible to average users.
Dynamics of Strategy: A Feedback Approach to
Corporate Stragety-Making and Adaptation
The paper capitalises on a grounded field study of companies undergoing
radical turnaround in their corporate strategies. A set of hypotheses is
developed by organising empirical data using system dynamics logics and
symbolic language. System dynamics approach provides a_ theoretical
environment within which the forces, tensions, inertia and pressures that
shape corporate strategy in organisations are scrutinised. Suggestions are
derived on possible pathological unfolding strategic behaviours.
88 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Rutger M. Mooy
systemdynamics@ rutgermooy.net
TNO
Brassersplein 2
PO Box 5050
2600 GB Delft The Netherlands
David J. Langley
dj.langley@ telecom.ino.nl
TNO Telecom
PO Box 15000
9700 CD Groningen The Netherlands
Jente Klok
jente.klok@ telecom. tno.nl
TNO Telecom
PO Box 15000
9700 CD Groningen The Netherlands
Alfredo O. Moscardini
alfredo.moscardini@ sunderland.ac.uk
University of Sunderland
School of Computing and Technology
St Peter’s Campus
Sunderland SR6 ODD
UK
Andriy Sergeyev
sfecon@ mail.ru
University of Sunderland
School of Computing and Technology
St Peters Campus
Sunderland Tyne and Wear SR6 ODD
UK
Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
System Dynamics Group Info Science
Postbox 7800
N-5020 Bergen Norway
Ali Kerem Saysel
ali.saysel@ infomedia.uib.no
University of Bergen
System Dynamics Programme
PB 7800
5020 Bergen Norway
The ACMI Adoption Model: Predicting the
Diffusion of Innovations
Abstract The ACMI (Adoption Curve Modelling Instrument) Model takes
two well-known System Dynamics Models and combines them with the
sociological theory of Memetics to form an Innovation Diffusion Model that
can be used to predict the uptake of innovations within specific target
consumer markets.
Systemic Influences on the Economic Performance
of the Ukraine
This paper deals with a systemic attempt to understand the economic
transition of the Ukraine which represents a typical former Soviet Republic
which gained independence in 1990. Our approach uses a combination of
various Cybernetic, System Dynamics and Operational Research
approaches. This paper concentrates on the Qualitative System Dynamics
approach taken. We give a brief overview of the cybernetic approach
explaining our view of production units and production chains. We then
explain a major causal diagram that is embedded in the recursive structure of
the cybernetic approach. We also explain the appearance of barter by using a
causal approach.. The paper illustrates how System Dynamics and can work
together.
Misperceptions of Global Climate Change:
Information Policies
Previous experimental studies of people’s understanding of climate change
and of other renewable resource problems have revealed that people
misperceive the basic dynamics and that they favour decisions that are
systematically biased in the direction of over-utilisation. In the present
laboratory experiment, with 251 students, the focus is on understanding why
people misperceive and how misperceptions could be avoided. Using a
simulator, the subjects are asked to control total global emissions of CO2 to
reach a given target for the atmospheric CO2-concentration. Compared to a
previous study we find that full information about a simplified system leads
to improved performance, particularly among students with a background in
mathematics. Subjects perform better in an analogous, however more easily
visualisable system, indicating that they have difficulties forming
appropriate mental models of the more abstract atmospheric problem. Two
information treatments, thought to improve mental models, turn out to have
insignificant effects. Finally, information feedback about the development of
the CO2-concentration helps. According to our findings, current information
from the IPCC and the standard media coverage is not effective in helping
people to choose policies that are consistent with their own preferences.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 89
Papers continued
Camilo Olaya
colaya@ uniandes.edu.co
University of St Gallen
Calle 91 No 21-69 Apto 403
Bogota
Colombia
Rogelio Oliva
roliva@ hbs.edu
Harvard Business School
Morgan Hall T87
Soldiers Field Road
Boston MA 02163
USA
Mohammad T. Mojtahedzadeh
mohammad@ attunegroup.com
Attune Group Inc
16 Regina Court Suite #1
Delmar NY 12054
USA
Nathaniel Osgood
nosgood@ mit.edu
MIT
77 Massachusetts Ave 1-376
Cambridge MA 02139
USA
System Dynamics Explanations as Mechanisms and
some Implications for Theory Building
This paper introduces a framework to characterize system dynamics
explanations. In order to accomplish this task it shows different ways to
explain phenomena and underlines the tendency to use mainly causality as
the way to do it, illustrating this point with mainstream management studies.
Presenting the problems linked with causality the article looks for
alternatives connecting ideas of Hayek and Russell regarding explanations
and structures. Likewise, the paper presents some implications for theory
building. System dynamics explanations are labeled as mechanistic and non-
causal ones and are placed naturally in this framework.
Keep It Simple: A Dominance Assessment of Short
Feedback Loops
Two approaches have been developed to establish a formal link between
system structure and behavior. Eigenvalue elasticity approaches take a
system-wide perspective and have been based either on ad-hoc selection of
loops (Forrester 1982; Kampmann 1996)—resulting in non-generalizable
explanations—or on loops formed by the aggregate paths between state
variables (Gongalves et al 2000)—resulting in low-resolution explanations.
The second approach, Pathway Participation Method (PPM) (Mojtahedzadeh
et al 2004), considers pathways as the building blocks of influential
structure, but frequently identifies loops as the structure most responsible for
an observed behavior. In this study we show, for various models, that the
Shortest Independent Loop Set (Oliva 2003) contains the loops identified as
most influential by PPM. Since the SILS is structurally derived, and under
most circumstances unique, we propose it as a starting point for Kampmann
method to derive complete, granular, and generalizable structure-behavior
explanations.
Representing Heterogeneity in Complex Feedback
System Modeling: Computational Resource and
Error Scaling
Heterogeneity plays a critical role in shaping the behavior of many complex
systems. In the context of a system exhibiting non-linear relationships, it is
not in general possible to design models that capture behavior of interest or
permit reliable reasoning about policy impact without explicitly representing
system heterogeneity. This paper provides a brief overview of the
mathematics underlying the need to represent heterogeneity in non-linear
systems, introduces a motivating example, and compares three approaches
for representing heterogeneity. Specifically, the paper examines how
computational resource demand and error introduced by approximations
needed to ensure acceptable resource use scale with growth in the set of
heterogeneous characteristics and the level of detail with which they are
represented. Our analysis shows that attribute-based disaggregation is best
suited to problems in which few heterogeneous attributes require
representation or which feature very large population size, while agent-based
disaggregation are well suited to problems that require representation of
heterogeneity with respect to medium or high numbers of attribute
dimensions and population sizes that do not exceed agent population size by
more than a few orders of magnitude.
90 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Leeza Osipenko
eosipenk@ stevens.edu
Stevens Institute of Technology
SEEM Dept
Castle Pt on Hudson
Hoboken NJ 07030
USA
John Vail Farr
jfarr@ stevens.edu
Stevens Institute of Technology
Dept Systems Eng and Eng Met
Castle Point on Hudson
Hoboken NJ 07030
USA
Peter A. Otto
ottop@ dowling.edu
Dowling College
School of Business
Idle Houre Blvd
Oakdale NY 11769 USA
Sang-Hyun Park
alraview@ infovil.co.kr
Chungbuk National University
941 Industrial Technology Research Pk
48 Gaesin-dong Heungdeok-gu
Chong-ju Chungbuk 361-763
Korea
Seung-Jun Yeon
naege@ infovil.co.kr
Electronics and Telecom Research Inst
161 Gaejeong-dong Yuseong-Gu
Daejeon 305-350
Korea
System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems
Integration in Regulatory Environments
System Dynamics evolved from Dynamic Systems, which are often
associated with classical mechanical engineering. However, today System
Dynamics (SD) and Dynamic Systems (DS) are differentiated in theory and
application. We believe that the link between SD and DS shall be
reemphasized if not re-established in certain fields in order to advance
system development and understanding. In some regulatory environments
(e.g. energy, medicine, ecology, and aviation), the integration of SD and DS
techniques can be especially beneficial. Many systems and simulations
developed in these fields omit important first principal parameters used in
modeling a specific problem or task. We believe that the combination of SD
and DS can provide for a higher level of precision in the system building
process and a better understanding of its fundamental behavior. In this paper,
using an example of medical clinical trials, we will demonstrate how SD and
DS can be used together to yield more sophisticated models. Key words:
system dynamics, dynamic systems, modeling techniques, regulatory
environments, pharmaceutics.
Interorganizational Learning: A Dynamic View of
Knowledge Development in Strategic Alliances
The objective of this paper is to develop a dynamic theory of
interorganizational learning and knowledge acquisition in strategic alliances.
Strategic alliances are becoming an increasingly important organizational
form to gain access to new knowledge and to leverage existing knowledge.
By establishing an alliance with one (or more) partner, an organization will
gain valuable learning opportunities to acquire knowledge and to enhance
their competitiveness. The degree with which the partners can realize their
learning objectives is dependent on their absorptive capacities and the
collaborative strategies adopted by the partners. These collaborative
strategies may include the trust between alliance partners as well as the
willingness from an organization to share its existing knowledge. In order to
gain insights into the dynamics of interorganizational learning and
knowledge acquisition we propose a simulation model to test different
conditions influencing the outcome of an alliance. Although the model is
highly aggregated the results can improve our understanding of the key
factors determine success and failure in strategic alliances. We conclude the
paper with a discussion for guidelines to assess and manage the outcome of
strategic alliances.
The Application of System Dynamics for Market
Strategy: The Local Government Server Market of
Korea
Continual building and reviewing business strategies are indispensable for
the profit organizations to gain or maintain competitive advantage in the
market. But such strategies sometimes mislead the companies to hazardous
conditions. This is mainly because symptomatic reaction in short-term
perspective overrules holistic response in longer term. Quite often the
importance of investigating the dynamics and the delayed feedback effects
of structural mechanism underlying the environmental changes is
overlooked in the process of building strategies. Systems thinking may be
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 91
Papers continued
Sang-Wook Kim
sierra@ chungbukac.kr
Chungbuk National University
Dept of Management Information Systems
48 Gaesin-dong Heungdeok-gu
Chong-ju Chungbuk 361-763 Korea
Won-Gyu Ha
wgha@ etri.re.kr
Electronics and Telecom Research Inst
161 Gajeong-dong Yuseong-gu
Daejeon 305-350 Korea
Hun-Joon Park
hjpark@ yonsei.ac.kr
Yonsei University
School of Business
134 Shinchon-dong Seodaemoon-ku
Seoul 120-749 Korea
Sei-Hong Oh
Sang-Joon Kim
Jorge Andrick Parra Valencia
japarra@ unab.edu.co
Universidad Auténoma de Bucaramanga
Calle 48 No 39 234
Bucaramanga Santander
Colombia
the best alternative in analyzing structural features of the target market as a
whole. By introducing a case of the local government server market of
Korea, this paper attempts to depict how systems thinking and system
dynamics simulation approach can be effectively applied to exploring
alternative proposals and finding a best strategic option.
Leverage Strategy to National R&D Investment in
Korea: A System Dynamics Approach
Dilemmas surrounding investment decisions for national research and
development projects include difficulties of determining the total funding
amount (the strategic loop), R&D systems (the structural loop), and the
process of realizing initial investment objectives and priorities by assigned
researchers (the efficacy loop). This study purports to arrive at a feasible
policy alternative to these decisional dilemmas by providing a simulation
model that can detect inherent problems within the unobtrusive dynamic
structure of the Korean national R&D investment institution. Three
simulation models produced various results for different scenarios. In sum,
we found that emphases on application and “add-on” or developmental
technologies resulted in long inter-stage temporal gaps, although their short-
term economic benefits were obvious. In a similar vein, myopic investments
in specifically targeted technologies in strategically designed R&D projects
led to decreasing levels of absorptive capabilities, whereas far-sighted
investments brought in adversary results. Finally, we found that an initial
investment package did not have significant impact on the level of
researcher efficacy, which augurs a more complex dynamics of researcher
motivation structures than is usually assumed. Therefore, in the Korean case,
it is imperative that the national R&D institution concentrates resources in
long-term and far-sighted projects to enhance strategic technologies, while it
is necessary for it to increase funding for fundamental research projects to
beef up its R&D capabilities.
An Explanation of System Dynamics Recognition
Experience According to an Interpretation of
Biology of Cognition Theory: The Nature of
Feedback Loop Structure
This paper presents the partial research insights about an explanation of the
phenomenon of the system dynamics recognition (Parra, 2002), according to
an interpretation of Biology of Cognition Theory proposed by Humberto
Maturana (Maturana, 1985,1992,2002). This article presents a conceptual
model of the Biology of Cognition. This model is used to distinguish and
configurate elements and relations to permit the construction of the notion of
recognition according to Biology of Cognition. Next, we consider the
principal System Dynamics foundations: the feedback cycle under the view
point of the Biology of Cognition Recognition. For this, we interpret a Jay
Forrester’s classic paper. With this intepretation, we propose two ways for
the System Dynamics Recognition according to Biology of Cognition. The
insights about this research may be pertinent to study the implications of the
more important System Dynamics process: the organizational learning and
educational aplications.
92 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Jamshid Parvizian
japa@ ce.iut.ac.ir
Isfahan University of Technology
Dept. of Industrial Engineering
Isfahan 84156 83111
Iran
Hamed Tarkesh Esfahani
hamedtarkesh@ yahoo.com
Isfahan University of Technology
No 124 Payam Alley
South Tohid Ave
Esfahan
Tran
Jamshid Parvizian
japa@ ce.iut.ac.ir
Isfahan University of Technology
Dept. of Industrial Engineering
Isfahan 84156 83111 Iran
Morteza Nosouhi
nosohi@ yahoo.com
Municipality
No 81667-97691
Isfahan Iran
Oleg V. Pavlov
opavlov@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd
Worcester MA 01609
USA
Emotional Decision Making in System Dynamics
This paper tackles decision making agents, who control rates, in system
dynamics. The decision is made based on the information of the levels
received at the decision points. In socio-economic systems it is common
practice to assume that decisions are made according to a definite law or a
guidance table or graph. This deterministic rational approach is hardly able
to model systems in which decisions are taken by humans. Rationality is
assumed to be independent of persons; therefore understandable for all, i.e.,
the decision maker is always trying to maximize her/his explicit profits by
taking decisions that are known to the modeler. On contrary, emotionality is
very personal and often leads to un-justifiable decisions. To capture the
nature of decisions made by people we have to consider the characteristics
and personality of the person who is in charge. This way, the rational
decision maker may be replaced by a rational-emotional one. In this paper an
emotional decision maker, which is called sometimes an agent, is integrated
into a socio-economic system dynamic model. It receives information from
the environment and decides in-line with its personality. The environment is
being changed by the decisions made. So the agent faces a new condition to
decide in. The environment also encourages or punishes the agent by the
result of the decisions taken.
Information Filtering: A Service by Business
Intermediaries
Business intermediaries are often blamed for not adding any value to the
product.Therefore, it is always recommended to make direct business
connections between producers and consumers. E-business made this
connection more possible and realistic than ever in a large scale. The core
assumption behind this value analysis is that the intermediaries’ role is
limited to the exchange of products and money. The present work recognizes
the information flow through intermediary channels. This information, that
is used in business for market analysis and forecast, advertisement and so
on, like any other information is mixed always with noises, is produced in a
format that may not be suitable for end-users, and reports facts with a delay
that may be too short for decision makers to judge upon or too long to be
useful at all. A sharp increase in demand in a very short time can be
misleading for the producer to increase production capacities. The
intermediary inventory can absorb this increase of demand if it does not
survive for long; otherwise will pass it to the producer. Intermediaries can
filter the information to eliminate noises, to present it in a proper format, and
to deliver it in critical time steps.
A Dynamic Analysis of an Institutional Conflict
Induced by Online Music Swapping
Peer-to-peer technology has made massive music piracy possible, which, in
turn, has arguably had a significant economic impact on the recording
industry. Record labels have responded to online piracy with litigation and
are also considering self-help measures. It is currently not obvious whether
or not these counter-piracy strategies will ultimately stifle online file sharing
in the long term. With this paper we attempt to add to our understanding of
the conflict within the institution that is the commercial music industry. We
conduct an institutional analysis of the industry in transition and extend the
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 93
Papers continued
Matteo Pedercini
matteo@ threshold21.com
Millennium Institute
2200 Wilson Blvd Ste 650
Arlington VA 22201
USA
Lazaros V. Petrides
Lv.petrides@ nepheli.gr
University of Salford
Hotel Nepheli Komninon 1
Panorama 55236 Thessaloniki
Greece
Brian C. Dangerfield
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford
Centre for OR & Applied Statistics
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford MS 4WT
UK
John H. Powell
j_h_powell@ btopenworld.com
Bath University
School of Management
Claverton Down
Bath Somerset BA2 7AY UK
Juani Swart
Bath University
School of Management
Claverton Down
Bath BA2 7AY UK
traditional pattern modeling methodology with a formal resource-based
model of a representative online music network. In a series of experiments
that emulate anti-piracy scenarios we show that a peer-to-peer system may
be quite resilient to outside disturbances. The experiments also demonstrate
that policies rank differently in their effectiveness based on a selected
yardstick.
Evaluation of Alternative Development Strategies
for Papua, Indonesia: A Regional Application of
7T21
Papua-Indonesia is a region characterised by a huge territory, a small
population and an incredible abundance of natural resources, which make it
a potential thriving ground for many production activities. After a period of
transition from a centralised to a decentralised form of government, the
region is now facing a delicate moment in its growth, as the choices and the
politics of the local government will dramatically influence Papuan’s
development chances. The biggest challenge now faced is how to manage
the production of resource-based products while protecting the environment.
The objective of the work described in this paper is to identify a
developmental path for Papua that would generate a real increase in local
people’s quality of life and guarantee a proper use of natural resources.
Given the multisectoral and multidisciplinary nature of the issue
investigated, (our client and) we decided to implement and use a System
Dynamics model, the Threshold21 (T21), to support our analysis. From the
analysis carried out on the results produced by the model for various
scenarios, we concluded that a more long-term sustainable alternative to the
present regional development plan exists, and we recommended in particular
one of the strategic plans analysed.
An Economic Analysis of the PAYG Retirement
System and the Expected Consequences from a
Transition to an FF Scheme
In this paper an attempt is made to illuminate the basic problems that are
associated with financing retirement. The currently prevailing, in most
developed countries, Pay-As-You-Go (PAYG) system and its deficiencies
are analysed initially from a traditional economic perspective and the
expected consequences from a transition to a Fully-Funded (FF) scheme are
also presented. A System Dynamics model is subsequently described which
enables the employment of considerably more realistic assumptions than are
commonly employed in economic models, and its results prove to challenge
mainstream economic findings. In addition many novel features of PAYG
schemes are uncovered.
Towards a Valuation of Knowledge in Systems
Using Qualitative System Methods
Knowledge in a firm is a highly desirable intangible resource imbuing
competitive advantage due to its inimitability, but often that linkage between
knowledge and competitive advantage is not explicit. Moreover, it is often
not explicitly valued by an organisation so that exhortations to train,
develop, disseminate and publish are often met with resistance since no
valuation on the knowledge (and particularly tacit knowledge) in a firm is
easily available. After a discussion of the types of knowledge immanent in a
firm (knowing what, knowing how, knowing why and knowing who), we
94 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Erik Pruyt
erik pruyt@ vub.ac.be
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
VUB-ESP-MOSI
Pleinlaan 2
B-1050 Brussels
Belgium
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah
hassanq@ yorku.ca
York University
School of Administrative Studies
4700 Keele Street Atkinson 282
Toronto ONT M3J 1P3
Canada
Jaziar Radianti
jaziar@ bdg.centrin.net.id
Padjadjaran Univeristy
Villa Bukit Mas No A5 Bojongkoneng
Bandung 40191
Indonesia
)
present a method of modelling the knowledge in an organisation and of
relating that knowledge specifically to its business survival. This method of
modelling allows the representation of knowledge types and the mechanisms
of their contribution to the generation of value. Using the real-life case of a
professional firm we show how the system of that firm can be modelled and
used to establish the knowledge usage and requirements of the people in that
system in support of their intent for action.
System Dynamics Models of Electrical Wind Power
This paper describes the gradual transformation of the spreadsheet model
from the Wind Force 12 report by the EWEA and Greenpeace -which
assesses the world wind power potential by 2020- into system dynamics
models on the same problem. First the (static) spreadsheet model is
replicated in a system dynamics structure, which allows us to correct some
errors crept into the spreadsheet model and the report. Second, this static
model is turned into a first system dynamics model very close to the spirit
and dynamics of the original Wind Force 12 report. Then, the unsatisfactory
structures from this first system dynamics model are replaced by more
appropriate structures in a second system dynamics model. Finally, the three
resulting models with different degrees of complexity are compared and
some conclusions are drawn.
Value Cycle Model for Stakeholder Value
Management
In today’s competitive and dynamic environment, creating value for all the
stakeholder is not an easy a task. In any value-creating endeavour,
management needs to effectively understand the dynamic features of value
systems of the firm including feedback systems, time delays, and non-linear
cause-effect relationships. The proposition in this study is that the singular,
monistic, and short-term oriented shareholder perspective fails to capture the
dynamics of stakeholder values. We provide a new characterization of
stakeholder value in terms of four constructs; interdependency, mixed-
tangibility, temporality, and commitment-intensity. Based on this
characterization, we propose a conceptual model - Value Cycle Model
(VCM) — for stakeholder value management. This research seeks to improve
the understanding of the dynamics of stakeholder values by increasing our
knowledge of how the strategic decisions, systemic leverage, resources, and
the characteristics of stakeholder value impact stakeholder values. Finally,
we present an approach to operationalize and test VCM.
Modeling Government External Debt and
Sustainability of Fiscal Policy
Development theories assume that developing countries are trapped by
vicious circles of poverty due to low incomes, savings and investments.
External debt financing is viewed as a means of escaping from the cycle of
poverty and a way to to relieve bottlenecks in development process. This
work focus on public external debt and government public finance since its
fiscal policy is important in development process as well as in securing
stability and growth. It attempts to show how spiraling external debt has
harmful effecst on fiscal sustainabilit, using system dynamics model. An
experiment with a set of policy options is carried out, to find a better strategy
that is able to reduce the dependency on external debt and to maintain fiscal
sustainability.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 95
Papers continued
Michael J. Radzicki
mjradz@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Dept of Social Science and Policy
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609-2280 USA
Hazhir Rahmandad
hazhir@ mitedu
MIT
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-354A.
Cambridge MA 02139 USA.
Francesco Vittorio Raimondi
vraimondi@ vanguardstrategy.com
Vanguard Strategy
68 Long Acre
London WC2E 9JG UK
Lars Finskud
Ifinskud@ vanguard-bm.com
Vanguard Brand Management
68 Long Acre Covent Garden
London WC2E 9JG UK
©)
Expectation Formation and Parameter Estimation
in Nonergodic Systems: The System Dynamics
Approach to Post Keynesian-Institutional
Economics
Twenty years ago, Davidson first put forth his view that any economist
practicing normal science within the Post Keynesian paradigm must produce
models and theories that are, among other things, nonergodic. Since it is
self-evident that actual economic systems are nonergodic, Davidson argued
that any economic theory that utilizes the rational expectations hypothesis
cannot be considered Post Keynesian, and is most probably invalid. In a
separate stream of thought, Radzicki has suggested that, due to striking
similarities in their underlying methodologies, Post Keynesian economics,
institutional economics, and system dynamics computer simulation
modeling can be combined to form a superior form of heterodox economics.
In an effort to extend this line of thinking this paper will lay-out three
arguments that lend support to Davidson's ideas and should be of interest to
heterodox economists. The first is that economic systems are indeed
nonergodic. The second is that it is possible to produce models that mimic
the formation of actual human expectations and can thus be used when
modeling nonergodic systems. The third is that the issue of model validity is
complicated and goes far beyond the ability of a model to mimic time series
data.
Heterogeneity and Network Structure in the
Dynamics of Contagion: Comparing Agent-Based
and Differential Equation Models
When is it better to use an agent based (AB) model, and when should
differential equation (DE) models be used? We compare and contrast the
dynamics of AB models with those of the corresponding mean-field DE
model, using the common and important context of the spread of contagious
disease as an example. We compare the dynamics of the well-known SEIR
model of contagion, a lumped nonlinear DE system, to those of an explicit
AB model of the same system. We examine both the impact of heterogeneity
in agent attributes and the impact of different network structures for the
interactions among the agents, including fully connected, random, Watts-
Strogatz small world, scale free, and ring-lattice networks. We further show
how agent based models can be formulated in continuous time while
preserving the full stochastic character of state transitions, allowing AB and
DE elements to be combined in the same model. Sensitivity analysis
demonstrates the conditions under which the extra complexity of the AB
representation leads to different conclusions compared to the aggregated DE
model.
The Role of System Dynamics in Achieving
Breakthrough Thinking in Entrenched Marketing
Teams: Lessons from a Case Study in the
Pharmaceutical OTC Industry
Breakthrough in a strategy-consulting project can be achieved also in
severely entrenched marketing teams, that is in teams that are stuck in their
way of looking at their brand. This paper describes how model
conceptualisation, resource structure mapping and model parameter
96 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
André Reichel
reichel@ ivr.uni-stuttgart.de
University of Stuttgart
Institute of Economics and Law
Keplerstrasse 17
70714 Stuttgart Germany
Scott F. Rockart
srockart@ duke.edu
Duke University
Fuqua School of Business
Box 90120
Durham NC 27708 USA
Ricardo A. Rodriguez-Ulloa
ias@ iasvirtual.net
Instituto Andino de Sistemas - LAS
PO Box 18-0680
Lima 18 Peru
Alberto Paucar-Caceres
a.paucar@ mmu.ac.uk
Manchester Metropolitan University
Business School Aytoun Building
Aytoun Street
Manchester M1 3GH UK
quantification have enabled a project team to challenge the client’s “view of
the world” and create consent and excitement around the new recommended
strategy. In particular, it has shown how stock and flow diagrams have
allowed for new ways to visualise critical challenges posed by the industry,
segment the market, and support research designed to quantify the value
creation from the identified strategic initiatives. Based on a real case, this
paper summarises the lessons learned and provides an actionable framework
to guide consultants and practitioners achieving breakthrough thinking in
entrenched marketing teams. Additionally, it represents evidence supporting
the claim that the value creation of System Dynamics engagements goes
beyond the insights that can be achieved through model simulation.
(Re-)Structuration of System Dynamics
System dynamics, as a methodology of structure and behaviour, can play a
significant role in theory building in the social sciences... if not for the
language barrier between systems approaches and the main stream of social
theory. To most social scientists, the true concept of system dynamics
remains hidden within its computer simulation apprenticeship. Lane (2001)
rightfully demanded to engage with the main streams of social theory to
overcome this unsatisfying situation. In this paper, the theory of
structuration is suggested as an appropriate ontological background,
providing a more sociological access to the core concepts of system
dynamics. In return, system dynamics is thought to hold much promise for
structuration theory in aiding reflexive control and system reproduction. An
emphasis is laid on qualitative system dynamics, the concept of mental
models, and the connections between the system dynamics and
structurationist nomenclature.
Might Twenty Models Cover Ninety Percent of All
Situations Managers Encounter?
Jay Forrester’s call for a set of ‘general, transferable computerized cases’ to
cover most managerial situations is one of the great tasks standing before the
field of system dynamics. A library of widely applicable cases, if
accompanied by reliable guidelines for when to apply them, would be a boon
to research, teaching, and management. Researchers could use these cases as
strong null models when evaluating new situations and new theories {Bell,
2001 #1844}. Teachers could use the most widely applicable cases for a
general management course or a thematic subset of the cases for specialized
courses. Managers could approach a new situation by selecting then tailoring
the model or models most likely to shed light on that situation. This paper
discusses progress that has been made toward this library of general and
transferable models, and describes a research project under way to evaluate
models for the library and produce the application guidelines needed for the
library to fulfill its promise.
Soft System Dynamics Methodology (SSDM): A
Combination of Soft Systems Methodology and
System Dynamics
Soft System Dynamics Methodology (SSDM), a systemic methodology
product of the combination of two widely used systems-based
methodologies from two different systems thinking paradigms, Systems
Dynamics (SD) and Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), is introduced and its
intellectual premises presented. The paper argues that by combining some of
SD and SSM stages, within the intellectual framework proposed by SSDM,
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 97
Papers continued
Etiénne A. J. A. Rouwette
e.rouwette@ nsm.kun.nl
Nijmegen University
Th van Aquinostraat 5.0.64
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Wouter Jongebreur
wouter.jongebreur@ significant.nl
Significant BV
Thorbeckelaan 91
3771 ED Barneveld The Netherlands
Paul van Hooff
p.p.m.van.hooff@ minjus.nl
Ministerie van Justitie
Schedeldoekshaven 100
PO Box 20301
2500 EH Den Haag
The Netherlands
Felicjan Rydzak
felicjan.rydzak@ pwr.wroc.pl
Wroclaw University of Technology
Inst of Production Eng & Automation
ul Lukasiewicza 3/5
50-371 Wroclaw
Poland
Piotr Magnuszewski
piotr.magnuszewski@ pwr.wroc.pl
Wroclaw University of Technology
Institute of Physics
Wybrzeze Wyspianskiego 27
50-370 Wroclaw
Poland
Pawel Pietruszewski
pawel.pietruszewski@ pl.ibm.com
IBM Business Consulting Services
ul I Sierpnia 8 skr poczt 12
02-134 Warszawa Poland
a methodology already in use in various countries in Latin America, much
can be gained in a systemic intervention that tackles complex situations. A
framework for comparing the ontological, epistemological and
methodological principles of SD, SSM and SSDM is suggested. The ten
stages of SSDM are outlined followed by an application of SSDM on a
small Peruvian enterprise where it helped to clarify its problematic
behaviour, and to analyze and propose culturally desirable and systemically
feasible changes to improve the problem situation. Finally, conclusions and
points for further research are suggested.
Modeling Crime Control in the Netherlands
This paper is about a group model building project with the Ministry of
Justice in the Netherlands. The aim of the model is to gain insight into the
combined effects of an increase in the case load and investments in different
phases of criminal justice administration and contextual developments such
as increased complexity of cases. A group of representatives from the police
force, public prosecution, courts and sentence execution participated in
constructing the model. The modeling project is to be concluded in August
2004, and at the moment of writing this paper the conceptualization phase is
finalized. In this paper we report on reasons for starting the modeling effort,
the process thus far and preliminary conclusions. At the time of the sytem
dynamics conference in July 2004 a more complete presentation will be
given of the resulting model and the way results are going to be
implemented by the participating organizations.
Jac A. M. Vennix
jvennix@ nsm.kun.nl
University of Nijmegen
School of Mgt Dept of Methodology
Th van Aquinostraat 5.2.35 PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen
The Netherlands
Twan Heijmen
theijmen@ minjus.nl
Ministerie van Justitie
Schedeldoekshaven 100
PO Box 20301
2500 EH Den Haag
The Netherlands
Teaching the Dynamic Balanced Scorecard
Rising variability and complexity in business, force managers to undertake
the effort of continuous and effective learning. The process of learning
increases the organisation’s adaptive capacity and resilience, and it helps to
derive a skilful combination of operational effectiveness and strategy. It is
essential to identify performance indicators which help to steer towards
long-term goals in the presence of short-term turbulence. The Balanced
Scorecard has become one of the most popular performance measurement
systems in recent years. However, there are some reservations about certain
aspects of this technique. Its effectiveness can be increased by application of
System Dynamics tools. We report here on methods to teach ways to apply
systems tools to the Balanced Scorecard. We integrated a series of lectures,
exercises and a simulation game in a workshop setting using the
methodology developed by IBM Business Consulting Services as an
example of implementation of the Dynamic Balanced Scorecard.
Jan Sendzimir Edward Chlebus
sendzim@ iiasa.ac.at chlebus@ itma.pwr.wroc.pl
Intl Inst for Applied Systems Analysis Wroclaw University of Technology
Schlossplatz 1 Inst of Production Eng & Automation
A-2361 Laxenburg Austria Lukasiewicza 3/5
50-371 Wroclaw Poland
98 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Alexander V. Ryzhenkov
ryzhenko@ ieie.nse.ru
Russian Academy of Sciences
Inst for Economics and Industrial Eng
17 Academician Lavrantiev Avenue
Novosibirsk 630090 Russia
Mohsen Sadeghi
sadeghiusl@ yahoo.com
Inst National Polytech de Grenoble
ENSGI
46 Avenue Félix Vialet
38031 Grenoble Ced France
Sanaz Seddigh Rad
sanaz_rad@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Chemical Engineering Dept
Tehran Iran
Saeed Eslami Bidgoli
saeedsb@ yahoo.com
Sharif University of Technology
Chemical Engineering Dept
Tehran Iran
Markus Salge
salgem@ is. bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Universitaet Mannheim
Industrieseminar Schloss
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany
Peter M. Milling
pmilling@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Schloss $ 203 Industrieseminar
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
()
Profitability, Productivity and Employment in a
Model of the US Long Waves
This paper elaborates the notion of viable quasi-periodic motion bounded in
the phase space that generalises stationary growth and stationary cyclical
growth. This paper contributes to finding a hypothetic law of motion of the
modern economic system (HL) that is characterised by resilience and
fragility. It is shown, in particular, that Okun’s law and some other
prominent empirical regularities are, likely, the manifestation of HL. The
application of the HL with exogenous growth of labour force to the U.S.
economy reveals and explains a trade-off between long-term improvements
in profitability and larger volatility of economic-ecological reproduction. A
focus of this work is on possible adverse social consequences of a more
aggressive substitution of living labour by man-made capital during the
current Kondratiev quasi-cycle, or long wave. Key words: profitability,
productivity, employment, volatility, long waves, modelling.
System Dynamics Modeling for Technology
Forecasting
Abstract For industrial companies forecasting of the technology is essential.
Due to technological facts there is a tight relationship between technical
forecasting and evaluation of market for new technologies. Technology
forecasting has not certain "lows" because of the inherent complexity of the
systems that are forecast. A System Dynamic based approach covering the
essential underlying cause and effect relationship provide suitable support
for understanding and managing the complexity and the inherent dynamics
of the technology forecasting. The article describes a comprehensive
approach to understand the process of technology forecasting, technological
innovation, the introduction of new technology, the state of growth, and the
process of maturity and aging in the market place.
The Pace or the Path?: Resource Accumulation
Strategies in the US Airline Industry
In the well documented case of the early low-fare and no-frills carrier
“People Express Airlines” the common explanation for the rapid rise and
decline is excessive corporate growth. Based on a dynamic resource-based
view, this paper finds that it is not only the pace but the path of growth
embodied in the resource accumulation processes — which determines the
outcome of a corporate growth strategy. In comparison to “Southwest
Airlines” — the prototype of nearly all nowadays low-fare and no-frills
carriers People Express’ strategy did differ in the speed of corporate
growth and in other vital strategic decisions, e.g. implementing a hub and
spoke network and giving service to heavy congested major airports instead
of flying to secondary airports in a loose coupled point to point system.
99
Papers continued
Peter Sanders
p.sanders@ thm.tudelft.nl
University of Delft
PO 5015
2600 GA Delft
‘The Netherlands
Frank M. Sanders
£m.sanders@ citg.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Civil Eng and Geosci
Postbox 5048
2600 GA Delft
The Netherlands
Ali Kerem Saysel
ali.saysel@ infomedia.uib.no
University of Bergen
System Dynamics Programme
PB 7800
5020 Bergen
Norway
Yaman Barlas
ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazigi University
Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul
Turkey
Martin F.G. Schaffernicht
martin@ utalca.cl
Universidad de Talca
Facultad de Ciencias Empresariales
Avenida Lircay s/n
Talca Chile
Spatial Urban Dynamics and a Vision of the Future
of Urban Dynamics: Forrester Revisited
The development of a dynamic spatial model of an urban area is described in
this work. The system dynamics method is used to create a model that copes
with the criticism on the original Urban Dynamics model (Forrester 1969)
by disaggregating the urban area into 16 zones. It was found that the
trajectory of the behavior (growth, overshoot and stagnation) in the Forrester
model is observed in each zone, but the overall behavior of the city shows a
relatively small overshoot. The zonal division creates opportunities to
explain and understand the dynamic behavior within the city in a more
satisfactory manner. Finally, it is concluded that the system dynamics
method remains very useful for creating insight in urban management for
urban planners and students, despite the fact system dynamics has never
become an established method in the field of urban planning (Alfeld 1995).
Model Simplification and Validation: Illustration
with Indirect Structure Tests
The simplification and validation of a large system dynamics model is
illustrated. The original model represents agricultural and environmental
problems of irrigation development in Southeast Turkey and consists of 62
stock variables. Its simplified version with a narrow model boundary and
higher level of aggregation is a general representation of its selected
dynamics and consists of 15 stock variables only. Analysis of reference
behaviours, indirect structure tests and scenario runs reveal simplified model
as a valid and useful version of the original. Simplification helps distilling
essential model structures that cause selected problems and increases the
quality and understanding of models. It can also be a step towards general
representation of case specific problems in various application domains.
Do Models Evolve?
This paper starts with the idea that learning in the context of system
dynamics modeling does not only happen during the modeling process, but
also goes on between the iterations of the inquiry process modeling is part
of. The notion of model version is introduced and it is suggested that the
differences between successive versions of a model represent what has been
learned in the inquiry process. A set of structural elements with a set of
indicators are proposed in order to capture theses differences and give them
meaning in terms of the learning process. This seems to be a valuable
conceptual possibility, in domains where such inquiry loops exist beyond an
individual modeling work.
100 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Nadine Schieritz
nadines@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany
Heinz G. Schild
heinz.schild@ caselab.info
Witan Institute of Management Studies
Hopmannstrasse 6
D-53177 Bonn
Germany
Maik Schneider
Burkhard Schade
burkhard.schade@ iww.uni-karlsruhe.de
University of Karlsruhe
Inst for Economic Policy Research IWW
Kollegium am Schloss Bau IV
76128 Karlsruhe
Germany
Hariolf Grupp
Hans J. Scholl
jscholl@ u.washington.edu
University of Washington
The Information School
Box 352840 Mary Gates Hall Suite 370C
Seattle WA 98195-2840
USA
Exploring the Agent Vocabulary: Emergence and
Evolution in System Dynamics
Agent-based simulation is an approach increasingly used to describe and
explain social phenomena; the areas of application are similar to those of the
system dynamics approach. Whereas system dynamics more or less ignores
the agent-based method, scholars from the agent-based community intensely
argue for the superiority of their approach. This paper analyzes in more
detail two of those arguments: the impossibility claim concerning the ability
of system dynamics models to explain emergent phenomena as well as their
flaw as to not consider individual diversity.
Enforcement in Free-Flow Systems: A Case Study
Sometimes System Dynamics tools are not suitable for solving dynamic
problems although on a high level of abstraction they can be modelled as
“stock and flow” diagrams. A typical example is the design of an
enforcement schema for a free-flow motorway toll system. This case will be
used to discuss how to deal with these problems by starting with a “stock
and flow” diagram and then proceeding to implement them as an agent-
based simulation. To do this a graphical backcloth must first be designed
which models the relationships between the dynamic and static agents in a
topologically correct way. Then the dynamic behaviour of the agents must
be formulated, which is possible on the agent level but probably would be
too complicated on the aggregate level needed for implementation with
common System Dynamics software. Based on a behaviour space generated
by simulating key combinations of the design parameters, recommendations
for a satisfactory enforcement schema are possible. Pseudo-empirical data
produced by the agent-based simulation could be used to calibrate
aggregated behaviour equations suitable for modelling with System
Dynamics software tools.
The Innovation Process for Fuel Cell Vehicles:
What Strategy Promises To Be Most Successful?
Many car manufacturers recognize fuel cell vehicles as future substitutes for
conventional cars with internal combustion engine. According to press
releases and brochures, different strategic approaches of the automobile
companies concerning fuel cell technology can be identified. Those
strategies match the market entry strategies known from strategic marketing
literature to a high degree. A system dynamics model that reflects the
beginning innovation process and the strategic approaches of a pioneer (first
to market), an early follower (early to market) and a late follower (late to
market) has been build. It examines the future prospects of the car
manufacturers’ strategies in three different scenarios, which illuminate
possible future developments of external influences like politics or fuel
infrastructure.
Can System Dynamics Models Have Greater
Relevance to Practice When Used within
Participatory Action Research Designs?
Over the years, the field has produced numerous rigorously researched SD
models, which have helped suggest detailed policy changes to organizations.
However, the application of model-based insights and the implementation of
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 101
Papers continued
Hans J. Scholl
jscholl@ u.washington.edu
University of Washington
The Information School
)
Box 352840 Mary Gates Hall Suite 370C
Seattle WA 98195-2840 USA
Steven E. Phelan
steven.phelan@ ccmail.nevada.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
College of Business
4505 Maryland Parkway Box 456009
Las Vegas NV 89154-6009 USA
Markus Schwaninger
markus.schwaninger@ unisg.ch
University of St Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
CH-9000 St Gallen Switzerland
José Pérez Rios
rios@ telefonica.net
Universidad de Valladolid
ETSI Informatica
Campus Miguel Delibes s/n
47011 Valladolid Spain
Kristjan Ambroz
kristjan.ambroz@ unisg.ch
University of St Gallen
Wiesentalstrasse 9
CH-9404 Rorschacherberg Switzerland
Rainer Schwarz
rasz@ tu-cottbus.de
)
Brandenburg Univ of Technology Cottbus
PO Box 10 13 44
03013 Cottbus
Germany
102
practical changes to policies, structures, and processes has not been observed
as frequently, even though, various approaches have been used to increase
ownership in models and results among practitioners and decision-makers,
for example, via group model building. In this paper, a more radical
approach is considered, which would amalgamate SD and its analytical
wealth with Participatory Action Research and its practical problem-solving
and change orientation, such that the relative strengths of both disciplines
complement each other and reliably produce an SD- influenced
organizational outcome. The feasibility of the proposed approach needs to be
empirically tested yet.
Using Integrated Top-Down and Bottom-Up
Dynamic Modeling for Triangulation and
Interdisciplinary Theory Integration: The Case of
Long-term Firm Performance and Survival
System dynamics (SD) modeling has been classified as a “top-down”
approach to modeling dynamic and complex systems, whereas agent-based
(AB) modeling techniques are referred to as a “bottom-up” approach.
Various papers have recently proposed the use of both approaches when
studying complex, dynamic problems in the social; sciences, particularly,
when hard data for important variables are hard to find. Furthermore, human.
and social dynamics typically have been studied through the lenses of
various disciplines. When modeling those problems, insights from those
various disciplines should be integrated. Dynamic modeling might provide
an important instrument for such theory-integration efforts. In this paper, the
problem of long-term firm performance is taken as an illustration for such a
research design, in which theory-integration is undertaken along with a
design, in which top-down and bottom-up modeling are iteratively
combined. It is concluded that besides arriving at deeper understanding of
the problem through theory-integration, cross-validation and dynamic
triangulation may be among the potential benefits in such multi-disciplinary
and multi-method research designs.
System Dynamics and Cybernetics: A Necessary
Synergy
In line with the conference theme — ,,Collegiality* — the authors propose to
build a bridge between two Systems Approaches, namely System Dynamics
(SD) and Management Cybernetics (MC). This synthesis is aimed at
opening a path for superior capability to deal with complex issues of actors
in both organizations and society. With their respective strengths — modeling
and simulation of content issues for SD, and providing a viable
organizational context for MC - a combination appears to be potentially very
promising. The authors propose the Integrated Systems Methodology as a
framework for combining SD and MC, and they give practical illustrations
to support their argument.
Dynamics of Depreciation and Scrapping in
Business Economics
With the aim to bring in SD deeper into management education we compare
the concepts of depreciation and scrappage used in the literature of SD on
224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Peter Maybaum
maybaum@ tu-cottbus.de
Brandenburg Univ of Technology Cottbus
PSF 10 13 44
03013 Cottbus
Germany
Peter M. Senge
psenge@ mit.edu
Society for Organizational Learning
955 Massachusetts Avenue Suite 201
Cambridge MA 02139-3180
USA
Danah Zohar
dzohar@ dzohar.com
Dennis Sherwood
dennis@ silverbulletmachine.com
Silver Bullet Machine Manufacturing Co
Barnsdale Grange The Avenue
Exton Rutland LE1S 8AH
UK
Dennis Sherwood
dennis@ silverbulletmachine.com
Silver Bullet Machine Manufacturing Co
Barnsdale Grange The Avenue
Exton Rutland LE1S 8AH
UK
one side and business economics on the other. We demonstrate that the
business economics concepts of straight-line depreciation and of sudden
scrappage can be formulated within the SD methodology and software. The
economic results are better in line with the textbooks of business economics
than those given by the current SD equations. As a result we recommend
using a pipeline delay instead of a third-order delay for modelling scrappage.
The concepts of straight-line depreciation and sudden scrappage are then
combined with the concepts of aging chains and co-flow in the framework of
a simple model of a firm. The simulation results are in line with fundamental
expectations of business economics. This will be the basis for our further
work on a generic model of a firm which could meet both the didactical
challenges of management education and the sophistication of modern
System Dynamics.
Emerging Theories about Deep Collective Learning
Deep questions and issues arise when we try understand how systems
thinking tools and capacities can better enable social and institutional change
like, How does a social system arise out of the mental models of its
participants, and in turn condition those mental models? And, how are
change efforts limited by traditional (Western) perspectives that assume that
the “external” system (formal structures, strategies, and policies) is
disconnected from the “internal” system (people’s thinking, feeling, and
quality of relationships)? Quantum theory has led physicists to a view where
observer and observed are interdependent. In its most radical interpretations,
it suggests that self and world continually co-evolve because each interacts
through a field that includes both. From this viewpoint, the deepest
processes of social change might arise from more conscious participation in
such fields. This session will explore a synthesis of approaches to enable
such participation: like system dynamics to look at interdependency from an
observers’ viewpoint, and “learning journeys,” generative dialogue, and
“rapid prototyping” to enable seeing our selves as part of the system, as it is
and is it might unfold.
Global Warming and Gaia Theory: A Systems
Approach
A recent report written for the US Department of Defence global warming as
the major threat facing the world today. Global warming has been discussed
for many years, but the general level of knowledge of what global warming
actually is, what its consequences are likely to be, and therefore about what
can realistically be done to avert its most harmful effects, is woefully low.
The purpose of this paper is to offer a small contribution to enhancing our
appreciation of this potentially catastrophic problem. For surely global
warming is the example, par excellence, of why taking a systemic view of
the whole, rather than a parochial view of the parts, is so important. A
particular feature of my analysis is the incorporation of Gaia theory, James
Lovelock’s revolutionary concept of the entire globe as a system.
Making the Whole Greater Than the Sum of the
Parts: A Pragmatic Approach to Building High-
Performing Teams
This paper is a challenge. An inspiration, or indeed call-to-arms, to the
System Dynamics community to make a real impact. For one of the major
needs of all organisations from government departments to major
corporates, from local voluntary organisations to family businesses — is to
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 103
Papers continued
Rohita Singh
rohita.singh@ geniusys.com.au
Geniusys Pty Ltd
47 Beaumont Street
Waterloo NSW 2017 Sydney
Australia
Gill Smith
gill.smith@ olmgroup.com
OLM Consulting
Cairns House 10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA UK
Eric F. Wolstenholme
eric.wolstenholme@ olmgroup.com
OLM Consulting
Cairns House 10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA UK.
Douglas McKelvie
douglas mckelvie@ olmgroup.com
OLM Consulting
Cairns House 10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA UK.
David Monk
david monk@ olmgroup.com
OLM Consulting
OLM Group Cairns House
10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA UK.
Ricardo Sotaquira
rsotaqui@ unab.edu.co
Universidad Autonoma de Bucaramanga
Calle 48 Nr 39-234
Bucaramanga Santander Colombia
Gerly Carolina Ariza-Zabala
gariza@ unab.edu.co
Universidad Autonoma de Bucaramanga
Facultad de Ingenieria de Sistemas
Calle 48 Nr 39-234
Bucaramanga Santander Colombia
improve teamwork. What organisation doesn’t have ‘teamwork’ as one of its
core values? But how many organisations actually deliver it? This paper
argues that the systems perspective can add intellectual integrity, pragmatic
robustness and — most importantly — real value to that oh-so-important
process of building high-performing teams, and suggests some powerful
actions as to how actually to do it. It also introduces the three laws of a new
science: the science of ‘organodynamics’.
Cultural Transformation Geniusys
The Cultural Transformation Geniusys model is best presented as a parallel
session at the 22nd International System Dyanmics conference 2004. At this
presentation participants will explore how we can use systems thinking to
understand the organisational structures that drive the momentum of a
cultural transformation programme (CTP). Next we will use systems
thinking to development a strategic planning framework to maximise the
efficiency of the CTP. We will also explore how we can use the Geniusys
psychology dynamics model to work with staff to increase the conversion
rate of staff from the current to the desired culture. We will do this by using
the Geniusys model to lower their resistance towards the changes and then
increase their motivation towards the programme. The subsequence
workshop will demonstrate the “motivation linguistics pattern”, which is the
key tool used to increase the motivation of staff towards the CTP.
Using System Dynamics in Modeling Mental
Health Issues in the UK
Over the past two years OLM Consulting, initially in partnership with
Cognitus, have used system dynamics modelling in a wide range of health
and social care settings to shed light on a number of difficult and complex
issues. A related paper presented to this conference (Using System
Dynamics to Influence and Interpret Health and Social Care Policy in the
UK) describes the experience of introducing System Dynamics in a public
service setting. This paper describes the work done in 2003 with two parts of
the Mental Health (MH) services in London. It includes discussion of the
approach to facilitating dialogue between commissioners and providers, as
well as stages in the development of models and some findings from the
experimental runs. The paper also discusses the potential to create a template
for a “whole system” view of the wider MH arena, based on current work
and consultation with experts in the MH field. Proposals to produce a
template have now been accepted by a national agency (National Institute
for Mental Health England, North West region).
(S)
Reusability in System Dynamics: Current
Approaches and Improvement Opportunities
Several companies in Colombia, and also some public institutions, are
beginning to use formal methodologies for strategic analysis. Unfortunately,
System Dynamics modeling is an almost unknown option for these potential
users. One answer to this poor diffusion is based on the concept of model
reusability. It will be revealed, by means of a framework of levels of
reusability derived from the object-oriented approach, that the state of the art
in system dynamics reusability shows the same evolution stage of software
reusability before the 1960s. This interpretation will expose too a major
104 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Yeoryios A. Stamboulis
ystambou@ uth.gr
University of Thessaly
Gallias 6
Volos 38221 Greece
Emmanuel D. Adamides
adamides@ mech.upatras.gr
University of Patras
Mechanical Eng & Aeronautics Rion
26500 Patras Greece
Thomas E. Malakis
thmal@ uth.gr
University of Thessaly
Dept of Mechanical and Industrial En
Volos Greece
Agapios Kiousis
akiousis@ uth.gr
University of Patras
Gallias 6
38221 Volos Greece
Nikolaos Pomonis
npomo@yahoo.gr
University of Patras
Dpt Mechanical & Aeronautical Eng
IMIS Lab
26500 Patras Greece
Yeoryios A. Stamboulis
ystambou@ uth.gr
University of Thessaly
Gallias 6
Volos 38221 Greece
Emmanuel D. Adamides
adamides@ mech.upatras.gr
University of Patras
Mechanical Eng & Aeronautics Rion
26500 Patras Greece
Dimitrios Harisoulis
dim_harisoulis@ hotmail.com
Hellenic Airforce
Konstantinoupoleos 34
Peraia Thessaloniki 57019 Greece
Agapios Kiousis
akiousis@ uth.gr
University of Patras
Gallias 6
38221 Volos Greece
()
opportunity for encourage the practice of model reuse in our System
Dynamics community and for widening the spectrum of users. A first
implementation of a software tool for system dynamics modeling with
higher level of reusability is being developed.
Dynamics of Co-opetition in Platform Industries
The study of industrial organization, competition and strategy usually
assumes direct competitive interactions amongst firms or vertical relations in
the value chain. However in an increasing number of industries the situation
is more complex. Product complementarity is only one aspect of co-
operation. Platform-based competition is built on the basis of complex
interactions amongst the diverse sets of assets accumulated by various
players. Each may built an alliance with another player in order to utilize its
assets in exchange for a share of total profit. The problem of mutual resource
commitment during the development of complementary assets is modeled as
an evolutionary Prisoner’s Dilemma game. To investigate the effect of
different pure and mixed cooperation and/or defection strategies, a system
dynamics simulation model has been built using the resource-based view of
the firm. The dynamics of tangible and intangible assets, such as customer
base and technological learning, were included in the model. Cooperation
and defection payoffs are assumed to be time-dependent. Simulations run for
different platform participant strategies show the importance of asset
accumulation and synergy. The model was calibrated using data from the
mobile telecommunications industry and can be used in an interactive mode
to evaluate more complex industry-specific strategies.
A Time-Based Innovation Strategy Game
Innovations strategies, based on the introduction of new products to the
market with the aim of gaining larger market share and raising profitability,
have a significant time element. The work presented examines the behavior
of two firms based on the time-strategies they follow, with the help of a
system dynamics simulation model. The inability of a firm to follow the
competition’s rate of introduction of new products undermines its own long-
term competitiveness. On the other hand accelerated introduction of new
products may undermine the amortization of investments in existing
products. Here, the evolution of corporate performances in a duopoly
environment is presented; firms adopt strategic behaviors in response to the
competition’s choices. The model developed, provides to decision makers
the ability to assess the advantages and disadvantages of different strategic
choices and commitments and to analysts the opportunity to explore the
formation of equilibria under different industry environment parameters and
time-strategies.
Thomas E. Malakis
thmal@ uth.gr
University of Thessaly
Dept of Mechanical and Industrial En
Volos Greece
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 105
Papers continued
Krystyna A. Stave
kstave@ ccmail.nevada.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway
Box 454030
Las Vegas NV 89154-4030 USA
Michael F. Dwyer
mdwyer@ unlv.nevada.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
2109 Madagascar Lane
Las Vegas NV 89117 USA.
Paul L. Stepanovich (S)
stepanovicp1 @ southernct.edu
Southern Connecticut State University
501 Crescent Street
New Haven CT 06515-1355
USA
Pamela J. Hopkins
hopkinsp1@ southernct.edu
Southern Connecticut State University
Department of Management
501 Crescent Street
New Haven CT 06515
USA
Jiirgen Strohhecker (S)
strohhecker@ hfb.de
HEB Business School of Finance and Mgt
Sonnemannstrasse 9-11
D-60314 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
The Process of Problem Definition in a Group
Model Building Project for Sustainable Urban
Planning in Las Vegas, Nevada
This poster describes the first phase of a project to integrate land use,
transportation, and air quality planning in Southern Nevada. The project
clients are city planners and resource managers in the Las Vegas
metropolitan region. The clients recognize that integrating land use, air
quality and transportation planning is critical to improving livability,
mobility, environmental conditions, and economic stability in the region.
They also recognize that integrated planning is difficult, however, because
connections among these sectors are complex, uncertain, and not completely
understood. In January 2004, we began working with the group on a two-
year project to develop a system dynamics model to support integrated
planning and build long-term capacity for interagency and
intergovernmental collaboration. This poster describes the facilitated group
model building process of problem definition, which has taken the first five
months. Problem definition includes articluating the purpose, appropriate
scope and scale, users, inputs and ouputs of the model.
The New Hire: Teaching Behavioral Dynamics in
Management
System dynamics is conspicuous by its absence in the major management
education journals. At the same time, there are calls for better handling of
complexity and new theory generation; areas where system dynamics can
make a major contribution. This paper presents a simulation within a
learning environment aimed at reinforcing organizational behavior concepts,
especially emphasizing the interconnectedness of these concepts. While the
intent is not to teach system dynamics, the simulation provides an
opportunity to introduce system concepts. This paper concludes by
suggesting a strategy for entry into the management education journals
involving a longitudinal quasi-experimental design to evaluate alternative
techniques.
Simulation Based Experiments for Testing
Balanced Scorecard's Built-in Performance
Improvement Theory
Kaplan and Norton’s balanced scorecard (BSC) is, without a doubt, one of
the last decade’s major improvements in management and controlling tools.
In their various articles and books, the authors maintain that use of a
balanced scorecard will ultimately improve an organisation’s performance.
Their theory about the scorecard’s performance impact, however, is not
explicitly described. Based on Kaplan and Norton's publications, this article
reconstructs a system of hypotheses about the impact of a balanced
scorecard on performance and describes a research design, which uses a
System Dynamics-based micro-world, to test the theory. The
implementation of the research design is portrayed and statistically tested.
Finally, some preliminary results are presented, indicating that the balanced
scorecard’s effect on organisational performance might be overestimated.
106 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Jeroen Struben
jirs@ mit.edu
MIT
750 Tremont Street Apt 9
Boston MA 02118
USA
Erika Sudar
esudar@ informatika.bke.hu
Budapest Univ of Economic Sciences
Veres Palné utca 36
Budapest 1052
Hungary
Andras Gabor
gabor@ informatika.bke.hu
(S)
Budapest Univ of Econ Sci & Pub Admin
Veres Palne utca 36
1052 Budapest
Hungary
Orasa Suksawang
fsocoss@ ku.ac.th
Kasetsart University
Faculty of Social Sciences
Paholyothin Road
Bangkok 10900 Thailand
©)
Technology Transitions: Identifying Challenges
for Hydrogen Vehicles
Automobile firms are now developing alternatives to internal combustion
engines (ICE), including hydrogen fuel cells and ICE-electric hybrids.
Adoption/diffusion dynamics for alternative powered vehicles are more
complex than those typical of most new products, due to the enormous size
and importance of the automobile industry, the size and impact of the
vehicle fleet, the presence of scale and scope economies, learning by doing
and through research, and the critical role of complementary resources such
as fueling and maintenance infrastructure. We describe a model to examine
the diffusion dynamics for and competition among hydrogen, hybrid and
ICE vehicles. In this paper we focus on the generation of consumer
awareness of alternative propulsion technologies through feedback from
driving experience, word-of-mouth and marketing, with a reduced form
treatment of network effects and other positive feedback (subsequent papers
will treat these in depth). Through detailed model analysis we show the
existence of a critical threshold for sustained adoption of new propulsion
technologies and its importance for the diffusion dynamics. We further show
that word-of-mouth from those not driving an alternative vehicle is
important in stimulating adoption.
Modeling the Penetration of the Information
Society Paradigm
Recently it has become obvious that the creation of an information society in
accordance with the eEurope objectives presumes governmental sup-port.
The programs and action plans, that are to support and accelerate the tran-
sition, have been developed in almost every country. However, at
developing the strategy the policy-makers have to consider the complexity
of the environ-ment and the diverseness of potential effects. This
complicates the forecast of the impact of the different measures. The scope
of the research was to set up a model in order to support decision- and
policy-makers. With the model the ones responsible will be able to estimate
the impact of different measures, and the al-ternatives can be compared with
each other.
A System Dynamics Approach to Applications of
Buddha's Dialogues
This paper presents how to formulate the structure of the Buddha’s teachings
in the form of feedback loop and to investigate the use of this system as a
solution to “narcotic problems in a community ”. The Singalovada case
study, the Buddha dialogues from the Suttanta, is a teaching for every
layperson on how to improve quality of life by peaceful methodology and
resulting in a sustainable development. The interactions between the key
components of this dialogue such as the bias, the defiled actions, the six
roads to ruin, and the harm of six directions imply critically the decay of the
societies at present and the potential to get worse in the future, if the loops
continue to imbalance. The Noble Eightfold Path components, the heart of
Buddhist’s practice to eliminate suffering, are included in this model to
provide the system balance. The use of system analysis to look at the
teachings of the Buddha helps people gain more understanding into the
mechanism of the system and the concept of the dialogues. This paper helps
the reader better to appreciate how to apply the Buddhist teachings
systematically to solve social problems.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 107
Papers continued
Mats G. Svensson
mats.svensson@ chemeng.lth.se
Lund University
Centre for Environmental Studies MICLU
PO Box 170
S-22100 Lund Sweden
Maria Larsson
maria larsson@ lucs.lu.se
Lund University
Cognitive Science Dept of Philosophy
Kungshuset
SE-22222 Lund Sweden
Cindy Tamez
Marcela Gonzalez
Yetzirah Vizcarra
Carlos Dominguez
Gloria Pérez Salazar
gloria.perez@ itesm.mx
ITESM Campus Monterrey
Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
Av E Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL Mexico
Nobuhide Tanaka
770566@ gakushuin.ac,jp
Gakushuin University
Faculty of Economics
1-5-1 Mejiro Toshima-ku
Tokyo 171-8588 Japan
Akira Uchino
uchino@isc.senshu-u.ac.jp
Senshu University
School of Commerce
532-8 Ichigao Aobaku
225-0024 Yokohama Japan
Tetsuma Furihata
furihata@ ms.kuki.tus.ac,jp
Tokyo University of Science
500 Shimokiyoku
Kuki Saitama 346-8512 Japan
108
(S)
Learning System Dynamics: Cognitive Processes
and Constraints
We present results from a study of how students learn system dynamics
modelling, and the involved group- and cognitive processes. The preliminary
results indicate learning constraints by pre-conceived concepts and models.
Furthermore the interaction by the students sometimes improved the learning
process, but not always. We particularly studied the initial phase were the
model is laid out with the help of causal loop diagrams. Iterations of the
causal loop diagram construction improved the learning, and specific
breakthrough points could be distinguished. The phase shift from a
qualitative causal loop model to a quantitative stock-and-flow model was
more problematic for some students, which often tried out pre-conceived
solutions. The students were followed through four consecutive modelling
tasks, where they were working in groups. We saw a particular progression
in the appropriation, in terms of terminology used among the students, while
the modelling skills differed considerably.
Implications in the Health Sector Given the
Tendency of Population Aging in Mexico
The increase in the life expectancy will have serious repercussions in the
support of the system of pensions that at the moment governs our country.
This situation will influence in determining form in the predictable collapse
of the social security systems of the country. The increase in the life
expectancy of the Mexicans, will make that the future generations, are in
average greater in age of which they were the last century, since the greater
adult population duplicates every 19 years, which took us to the fact to a
considerable increase in the demand of services of health, combined that the
number of pensioners with time also will be greater than the productive
population, which implies that the economic support for the sector health no
longer occurs supply for so many users, and this will gradually take it not to
be able to support as much load and by consequence, to the closing of the
official health systems. Using the model, we have found that these changes
in the population have serious implications that impact the future
generations of pensioners and the services of which they are beneficiaries.
Fundamental Analysis of the Attractiveness of a
Shopping Street
Previously, we have got some research results in order to explain how
retailers agglomerate in a city. We compared two simulation results, one
condition in a uniform distribution of population, the other radially
populated so that we investigated how population distribution affects the
spatial structure of retailers’ accumulation in a city (2003). These simulation
models did not even consider the attractiveness of shopping areas in
consumer choice because these models are based on rational assumptions.
Of course although some methods such as Drezner and Drezner (1998)
consider the attractiveness of shopping areas, these models did not explain
dynamically change under time series. So in this presentation we show two
types of SD models. They are conceptual models on shopping street or
shopping district in Japan. They are dynamic models of agglomerate
retailers, shopping district, in which the attractiveness is an important
element.
224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Kathryn S. Taylor
k taylor-alumni@ Ise.ac.uk
London School of Economics
3 Home Close
Wolvercote Oxford OX2 8PS
UK
Brian C. Dangerfield
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk
University of Salford
Centre for OR & Applied Statistics
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford MS 4WT
UK
(S)
Paul J. Thomassin
paul.thomassin@ megill.ca
McGill University
Department of Agricultural Economics
111 Lakeshore Road 21
Ste Anne de Bellevue H9X 3V9 Canada
Martin Cloutier
cloutier.martin@ ugam.ca
University of Quebec at Montreal
Dept Management and Technology
315 Ste-Catherine est
Montreal QC H2X 3X2 Canada
Jorn-Henrik Thun
thun@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar
Rheinaustrasse 5
D-68131 Mannheim Germany
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Exploring the Feedback Effects of Reconfiguring
Health Services: The Case of Cardiac
Catheterization Procedures
The reconfiguration of health care, shifting services ‘closer to home’, is a
well established trend, which has been motivated by the desire to improve
the provision of services. However, these efforts may be undermined by the
improvements in access stimulating demand. Existing analyses of this trend
have only considered isolated parts of the system and have led to
recommendations to control demand with stricter clinical guidelines or to
meet demand with capacity increases. By failing to appreciate the underlying
feedback mechanisms, these interventions may only have a limited effect.
We demonstrate the contribution offered by system dynamics modeling by
presenting a study of two cases of the shift in cardiac catheterization services
in the U.K. We describe several mechanisms by which demand is stimulated
and clarify the roles for stricter clinical guidelines and capacity increases.
We also demonstrate the potential benefits of changing the goals that drive
activity.
Funding University Research Networks for
Results: The Canadian Research Councils
Approaches
The two major research councils in Canada, Natural Science and
Engineering Research Council and the Social Science and Humanities
Research Council, have both embarked on fostering joint initiative research
networks in their respective areas. These University Research Networks are
dynamic, complex organizations that are based on the collegial behavior of
academics. In this context, collegiality can be defined as professional
interaction between peers that contribute to a shared academic commitment
to a research area. Funded university networks require a group of academic
researchers to transcend both institutional and disciplinary boundaries, and
for them to interact in a way that the research network provides a value
added output greater than the sum of the individual research projects. Such
an organization is both complex by its very nature and changes over time.
The paper will use system dynamics methods to represent the development
of two networks, one in the social sciences and the other in the natural
sciences. Both have developed using different governance structures and
feedback mechanisms. The model identifies the drivers and constraints on
network development.
Modeling Modern Maintenance: A System
Dynamics Model Analyzing the Dynamic
Implications of Implementing Total Productive
Maintenance
In recent years maintenance has become an important factor for operations
management. Total Productive Maintenance as approach for improving
maintenance has therefore evolved as the most popular manufacturing
concept. But often the concept cannot evolve its full potential. In this paper
reasons for the failure of Total Productive Maintenance will be presented
with respect to dynamic implications. The analysis focuses on the changes
for the maintenance department and the machine operators due to the
109
Papers continued
Warren W. Tignor
wtignor@ ieee.org
SAIC
472 Cornwall Court
Severna Park MD 21146
USA
José Manuel Torres
jmtorres@ tecnun.es
University of Navarra
TECNUN
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian Spain
Jose Maria Sarriegui
jmsarriegui@ tecnun.es
Universidad de Navarra
TECNUN
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian Spain
Jeff W. Trailer
jtrailer@ csuchico.edu
California State University Chico
College of Business
Chico CA 95929-0031 USA
Evan Bass
evan.t.bass@ us.pwe.com
PricewaterhouseCoopers
6210 Twin Peak Circle
Anaheim CA 92807 USA
Joshua A. Birdsill
jab2169@ yahoo.com
California State University Chico
PO Box 5051
Chico CA 95927-5051 USA
implementation of Total Productive Maintenance. Based on the ongoing
changes a dynamic analysis is performed to identify important implications
for a successful implementation of Total Productive Maintenance.
System Engineering and System Dynamics Models
Abstract System Dynamics (SD) set its roots in servo- mechanism systems
that were a combination of the earliest hardware and software systems
known. Over time, SD grew and evolved into a multiplicity of domains and
coevolving was the domain of Software Engineering. Today, Software
Engineering has its own sub domains of architecture, design, performance
and modeling. The Software Engineering topic of modeling has reached the
stage of development where structure and behavior are of high- interest; and
they are the very cornerstones of System Dynamics. There is enough
Software Engineering interest in structure and behavior that entirely new
procurements are being considered for a simulation capability based on the
Unified Modeling Language™ 2(UML2™). This paper looks at the
possibility of applying System Dynamics to the problem of modeling the
structure and beha vior of software engineering architectures, designs and
performance. It postulates the opportunity to rejoin the roots of System
Dynamics from the servo-mechanisms systems to 21st century software
enterprises. It offers the opportunity to bridge System Dynamics and its
structure and behavior capability with UML2™. SD offers the Software
Engineering domain an opportunity to leverage a compatible field of interest
and its modeling tools without delay or costly development.
Dynamic Aspects of the Security Management of
Information Systems
The dependency of enterprises on information systems makes security of
information systems one of the mayor concerns for enterprises. An incorrect
management of these systems can increase the number of vulnerabilities in
an enterprise, becoming sensitive to problems and attacks. By presenting and
analyzing a vulnerabilities model, this paper provides insights to the problem
that poor security management combine with vulnerabilities can harm an
information system. By implementing robust Technical Controls
(mechanisms that protect the system from incidents or attacks), Formal
Controls (business structures that allow a proper use of tecchnical controls),
and Informal Controls (security controls that deal with the workforce),
vulnerabilities can be eliminated improving security management of
information systems. These security controls could minimize the risk of
security failures originated by the existence of vulnerabilities on the system.
Ten Steps to Simulate your Strategic Architecture
This paper discusses a solution to the problem of introducing system
dynamics into a traditional strategic management course. In this paper we
provide an example set of assignments that introduce undergraduate business
students to system dynamics modeling. Students provide feedback on what
they liked and disliked about these assignments. Overall, the students were
very positive about this learning experience. It is hoped that these lessons
learned may help others to integrate system dynamics into their strategy
courses.
Charles Conway Dean Nilson
Cari Friedland Brandon Wood
110 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Jeff W. Trailer
jtrailer@ csuchico.edu
California State University Chico
College of Business
Chico CA 95929-0031
USA
Kuau Garsson
kuaug79@ yahoo.com
California State University Chico
4230 San Pablo Dam Road Apt C22
El Sobrante CA 94803
USA
Denis Treek
denis.trcek@ ijs.si
Jozef Stefan Institute
Jamova 39
Ljubljana 1000
Slovenia
Ya-tsai Tseng
yttseng@ mail. thu.edu.tw
Tunghai University
Dept of Business Administration
407 Taichung Taiwan
Yi Ming Tu
ymtu@ mis.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University
Dept of Information Management Systems
Kaohsiung 804 Taiwan
Assessing Public Policy Impact on the Sustainable
Growth Rate of New Ventures
The growth of firms is fundamentally based on self-reinforcing feedback
loops, one of the most important of which involves cash flow. When profit
margin is positive, sales generate cash, which may then be reinvested to
finance the operating cash cycle. We analyze simulations of a sustainable
growth model of new ventures to assess the importance of taxes, and
regulatory costs in determining growth. The results suggest that new
ventures are particularly vulnerable to public policy effects, since their
working capital resource levels are minimal, and they have few options to
raise external funds necessary to fuel their initial operating cash cycles.
Clearly, this has potential consequences in terms of gaining competitive
advantage from experience effects, word of mouth, scale economies, etc.
The results of this work suggest that system dynamics modeling may
provide public policy makers a cost effective means to meet the spirit of the
USS. Regulatory Flexibility Act.
Business Dynamics Supported Security Policy
Management
During recent decades a great part of efforts for provision of security in
information systems was focused on technology. Although it was noted in
the eighties that human factor plays an important role, it is becoming evident
only now that it plays a central role. Ensuring appropriate security for
information systems thus requires not only addressing of technology, but at
least as much human and organization related issues. These are usually
embodied in security policies, thus the paper focuses on the latter and a
model is presented that is intended to support security policy management.
The model is based on business dynamics.
From Loop Dominance Analysis to System
Behaviors
Loop dominance analysis is central to system dynamics study and practice.
However, no clear progress in loop dominance analysis has been made since
1999. Considering the inseparable nature of system structure, this study aims
to bridge the gap between loop dominance analysis and system behaviors.
This study identified and clarifies some critical but obscure concepts related
to loop dominance. After clarifying loop dominance, this study devises a
loop dominance analysis approach. The analysis process comprises two
parts. The first part identifies the dominant loops and the second part
explains the dynamic behaviors in terms of dominant loops. Dominant loops
are classified into pseudo dominant loops, local dominant loops, and
systemic dominant loops based on their impact on the whole system. The
loop dominance analysis process proposed here not only provides a straight-
forward process to identify dominant loops, but also emphasizes the twofold
behavioral explanation of dominant loops and their shifts.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 11
Papers continued
Silvia Ulli-Beer
silvia ulli-beer@ ikaoe.unibe.ch
University of Berne
Interdisc Center for General Ecology
Falkenplatz 16
CH-3012 Berne Switzerland
Ueli Haefeli
haefeli@ interface-politikstudien.ch
Interface Institute for Policy Studies
Seidenhofstrasse 12
CH-6003 Luzern
Switzerland
Heidi Hofmann
heidi.hofmann@ ikaoe.unibe.ch
University at Berne
Falkenplatz 16
CH-3012 Berne
Switzerland
Daniel Matti
matti@ interface-politikstudien.ch
Interface Institute for Policy Studies
Seidenhofstrasse 12
CH-6003 Luzern
Switzerland
Silvia Ulli-Beer
silvia ulli-beer@ ikaoe.unibe.ch
University of Berne
Interdisc Center for General Ecology
Falkenplatz 16
CH-3012 Berne Switzerland
(S)
David F. Andersen
david andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
315B Milne Hall
135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 101 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222 USA
Silvia Ulli-Beer
silvia ulli-beer@ ikaoe.unibe.ch
University of Berne
Interdisc Center for General Ecology
Falkenplatz 16
CH-3012 Berne Switzerland
(S)
112
Using System Dynamics Modeling to Inform
Strategy Development at the National Level:
Societal Trends and Dynamic Interactions
This contribution describes a system dynamics modeling approach for
exploring the influence of social trends on dynamics interactions between
transport behavior and spatial development in Switzerland. It aims at
informing strategy development at the national level and at enhancing goal
alignment between different policy sectors. While considerable knowledge
about normative objectives of sustainable transport has been elaborated,
there is a lack of knowledge about dynamic interactions between transport
needs, societal trends, and spatial development. Hence, the study aims at
enhancing system understanding and closing the identified knowledge gap as
well as at enabling multi-loop institutional learning in strategy design.
Within the strategic management process, the modelling approach helps to
develop a common vocabulary and an effective basis for communicating
complex and sometimes paradoxical conditions and strategy options
(Georgantzas and Acar 1995; Georgantzas 2003) (Senge and Sterman 1992;
Sterman 2000) (Morecroft 1988).
Ruth Kaufmann-Hayoz
ruth.kaufmann-hayoz@ ikaoe.unibe.ch
University at Berne
Falkenplatz 16
CH-3012 Berne
Switzerland
Using a System Dynamics-SWM Model to Inform
Policymaking for Solid Waste Management at the
Local Level
This paper presents a comparative policy analysis drawing on the System
Dynamics Solid Waste Management model that is based in a feedback
perspective about human behavior and public policy (Ulli-Beer 2003). The
model is suited to address the following request. What local policies increase
recycling, and help to establish / ensure a solid waste management system
that fosters competitive recycling markets? Subsequently, the model is used
as a policy laboratory in which various policy experiments addressing
“what-if-questions” under controlled conditions can be conducted.
Subsequently the impact and outcome of recycling initiatives and strategies
at the local level were analyzed under different scenarios. Various policy
experiments illustrate crucial dynamic interactions between flexible
preferences and contextual factors (Ulli-Beer et al 2004). Furthermore policy
sensitivity of personal factors could be identified that explain the success or
failure of recycling initiatives. The policy experiments show that
combinations of interventions altering personal and contextual factors are
crucial for policy compliance and for designing robust recycling initiatives
especially under uncertain and adverse conditions in the system.
A System Dynamics Choice Structure for Policy
Compliance: Micro Behavior Explaining
Aggregated Recycling Dynamics
This paper presents a System Dynamics Solid Waste Management model
that is based in a feedback perspective about human behavior and public
policy (Ulli-Beer 2003). A SD-choice structure is suggested that both
224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
Milne 101 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222 USA
David F. Andersen
david andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
315B Milne Hall
135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA
Imrana A. Umar
imrana.umar@ powersimsolutions.com
Powersim Solutions
585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon VA 20170
USA
Geert Vancronenburg
geertvancronenburg@ skynet.be
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Vakgroep MOSI
Pleinlaan 2
Brussels 1050 Belgium
(S)
highlights the interactions of personal and contextual factors and is suited to
explain and forecast the impact and outcome of recycling initiatives and
strategies at the local level as well as to explore different scenarios (Ulli-
Beer, Andersen et al. 2004). The model structure indicate crucial dynamic
interactions between flexible preferences and contextual factors.
Furthermore policy sensitivity of personal factors could be identified that
explain the success or failure of recycling initiatives. The policy experiments
show that combinations of interventions altering personal and contextual
factors are crucial for policy compliance.
Improving the Collective Capacity of Managers to
Execute Strategy and Create Value: A Dynamic
Simulation-Based Approach to Strategy
Communication and Management Training
This paper presents a unique and successful case study of the application of
systems dynamics for large scale management training and strategy
communication. It tells the story of how Novellus Systems, a Fortune 1000
company, with the help of an outside consulting firm, successfully trained
managers over a period of two and half years to understand and execute the
company’s strategy using a system dynamics based simulation model. The
paper presents lessons learned from the simulation events organized to help
Novellus achieve its objectives. It illustrates a unique context of system
dynamics in action at a very high level. It further illustrates how system
dynamics was used to foster dialogue, collaborative team learning and create
a shared vision which profoundly affected understanding, influenced and
even changed some management practices. It reveals how the simulation
game enhanced management's ability to think systemically, communicate
effectively, and collectively execute with confidence. This project has been
so successful that Novellus continues to use it in its semi-annual
management meeting for nearly three years now in a row and we are jointly
working on presenting a paper in one of the industry’s leading publications.
Transitions and Transition Management in the
Surface Passenger Transport System: A System
Dynamics Model
In order to evolve towards a more sustainable society, fundamental changes
need to take place in the domains of energy, transport, housing,... Few
theoretical frameworks are available, which can bring order in the complex
flow of events. However, the idea of socio-technical systems (Geels, 2002)
achieves just that. By looking at societal transitions as the outcome of
interactions between different levels and different dimensions in a socio-
technical configuration, the future challenges and options for sustainable
development become more clear. Geels (2002) even has a point when he
defends the use of case-studies in order to better understand the different
dimensions of technological transitions. However, by describing quantitative
models as too narrow, too much based on extrapolation and too top-down,
he fails to acknowledge the future added value of system dynamics in the
development of scenarios and in the scientific learning process concerning
societal transitions. This paper will present a system dynamics model
concerning the possible transitions in the surface passenger transport system.
In the final paragraph, a simulation game will be played in order to clarify
the concept of transition management.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 113
Papers continued
Bernd Viehweger
bv@ wiwi.hu-berlin.de
Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin
Institut fiir Wirtschaftsinformatik
Spandauer Str 1
D-10178 Berlin Germany
Hannes Fuchs
Klaus Vogstad
Klausv@ stud.ntnu.no
Washington State University
ESRP
Pullman WA 99164-4430
USA
John J. Voyer
voyer@ usm.maine.edu
University of Southern Maine
School of Business
96 Falmouth Street PO Box 9300
Portland ME 04104-9300 USA.
The Impact of ICT Diffusion on Growth: The Case
of Germany's ICT Sector
Ever since the rapid economic growth in the US in the 1990s ICT-capital has
been considered as one of the primary reasons for economic growth and the
Solow Paradoxon seemed to be resolved. However, the recent economic
slow-down and the burst of the dotcom-bubble contradicted these findings as
investments in ICT were cut down drastically. In this paper we look closer at
the recent data and evaluate the German economy using a model of the ICT-
sector and it’s impact on the economy as a whole. By taking into account the
diffusion of key technologies in different segments of the ICT-market we
take a new approach on macroeconomic modelling in this area. Especially
the effect of internet and the introduction of UMTS will be discussed in our
projections using the system dynamics model.
Counterproductive Environmental Policies: Long
Term versus Short Term Substitution Effects of
Gas in a Liberalized Electricity Market
In Norway, the environmental impact of building gas power in a liberalised
market has been the main controversy in the for over a decade. Proponents
of natural gas argue natural gas substitute more dirty sources of electricity
generation within the Nordic market, while opponents argue there is no such
guarantee and choose to focus on national emissions. Despite several efforts,
energy models have failed in resolving this controversy satisfactory. A
survey of previous studies using present energy models (EMPS and
NORDMOD-1) for decision support is presented. The models have been re-
run and their sensitivity towards specification assumptions examined,
showing that the results were highly sensitive to the assumptions made.
Second part presents a system dynamics model particularly designed to
address the short- and long run impacts of energy policies. The results show
that gas power will substitute some coal in the short term, but this
substitution effect is modest. When including long-term substitutional
effects of new investments, gas power also substitute future investments in
renewables which results in a net increase in CO2-emissions in the long
term. This finding raises serious questions about the environmental benefit
of the fuel substitution strategy.
Affordable Housing and Urban Sprawl Policy
Choices in York County, Maine: A System
Dynamics Approach
York County, Maine, filled with typical New England “home rule” towns, is
experiencing a lack of affordable housing and too much “urban sprawl.”
After a thorough examination of the situation in a typical York County town,
including a causal loop diagram based on interviews with knowledgeable
informants, a system dynamics model is used to test five possible policies
for the town: the status quo (large house lots and modest construction
levels), smaller house lots, a cap on construction, increased construction, and
smaller house lots and increased construction. The policy testing shows that
the “status quo” is not a terrible policy, that the “smaller lots” has some
things to recommend it, but that the combination of smaller lots and
increased construction gives the best mix of outcomes—better housing
affordability and less urban sprawl. Implications for policy and future
modeling are discussed.
114 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Wei Yang Wang
wyang@ cc.kuas.edu.tw
National Kaohsiung Univ of Applied Sci
415 Chien-Kung Road
807 Kaohsiung
Taiwan
Yi Ming Tu
ymtu@ mis.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University
Dept of Information Management Systems
Kaohsiung 804
Taiwan
Henry Birdseye Weil
weilco@ compuserve.com
MIT
Sloan School of Management
50 Memorial Drive Room E52-504
Cambridge MA 02142-1347 USA
David Wheat
dwheat@ wheatresources.com
Wheat Resources Inc
PO Box 19234
Roanoke VA 24019
USA
A Simulation Model for Organizational Evolution
In today’s ever-changing and complicated environment, organization faces a
difficult challenge. The keys to success in an organization lie in its
flexibility, creativity, and ability to learn. This implies that change is the
center of managerial and organizational theory. During the recent
developments of organization theory and other fields’ effects, self-
organization has obviously become the core concept among all the theories.
With the unpredictable environmental changes, self-organization clearly
demonstrates an organization’s flexibility, creativity, responsibility and the
ability to learn. The goal of this research is to explore the process of how a
team can restructure itself through self-organization to successfully adapt to
the changing environment. Similar to other areas of self-organizational
research, it has been discovered that a successful self-organizing team relies
on a mechanism called “evolutionary feedback”. In addition, this research
will help us understand the usefulness and contribution of organizational
changes during the process of self-organization.
Disrupting Mature Markets with Innovative
Technology
Many markets are dismissed because they are “mature.” The conventional
wisdom is these markets are lacking in opportunity, particularly for new
entrants or new products, because their growth is quite slow, asset lives are
long, operators have strong incentives to stretch the life of existing assets
rather than replace them, and the markets are dominated by a small number
of well entrenched suppliers. Innovative technology can disrupt a mature
market and change its dynamics. The incumbent suppliers may be more
vulnerable than they appear. The business opportunity could be enormous
for a company who understands the market dynamics, constructs an effective
competitive strategy, and has the strength and persistence to see it through.
This paper presents a model of the market for technology-intensive assets. It
is applied to the market for military transport aircraft, a classic case of slow
growth and replacement and dominance by a few suppliers. But the model is
more general. It explains important dynamics of many other markets, e.g.,
industrial process plants, telecom infrastructure, IT systems, media
production and distribution, motor vehicles, and not surprisingly commercial
aircraft.
How Does a Model Facilitate Learning?
The author is developing a system dynamics model and interactive learning
environment (“MacroLab”) that he uses in a macroeconomics distance-
learning course for Virginia community college students. He is also
developing a set of experiments to test the effectiveness of MacroLab as an
instructional tool. The purpose of one of the experiments is to compare the
learning that takes place with three different methods of delivering
essentially the same information about Gross Domestic Product to three
student groups. This experiment was recently administered to secondary
students in the Harvard Public Schools system in Massachusetts. The results
were generally supportive of the hypothesis that Group 2 would “learn
more” than Group 1, although the differences were not statistically
significant due to small sample sizes. Group 3 did not show learning gains
over Group 2, but there may have been some learning-curve issues related to
running and interpreting a simulation. Additional experiments are underway
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 115
Papers continued
Elin Whitney-Smith
elin@ netalyst.com
Netalyst Inc
508 2nd St SE Suite 1
Washington DC 20003
USA
Johannes Wiik
johannes.wiik@ hia.no
University of Bergen
Stromgaten 32
5008 Bergen Norway
José J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ hia.no
Agder University College
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Grooseveien 36
NO-4876 Grimstad Norway
Howard Lipson
Timothy J. Shimeall
tjs@ certorg
CERT Coordination Center
Software Engineering Institute
4500 Fifth Avenue
Pittsburgh PA 15213-3890 USA
Ddembe W. Williams
d.williams@ Isbu.ac.uk
London South Bank University
BCIM
103 Borough Road
London SEl 0AA UK
116
)
(S)
this spring at both secondary and higher education institutions in the United
States and in Venezuela. It is hoped that, with additional data, more
conclusive results will be available for sharing with the system dynamics
community at the Oxford Conference.
Pleistocene Extinctions: Counterintuitive Results
of Combining Hypotheses (Overkill, Second Order
Predation, and Environmental Degradation)
There are two popular hypotheses to explain extinctions at the end of the last
ice age, Climate Change and Overkill (humans hunting herbivores to
extinction); each has significant problems. Some have suggested that the two
hypotheses in combination would yield a stronger explanation. The
Pleistocene Extinction Model (PEM) was originally developed to test a third
hypothesis, Second Order Predation (2OP)— humans reducing carnivore
populations — and test it against Overkill*. Now, PEM has been expanded to
include a simplified Climate Change factor. Its results show that, in
combination, Climate Change counteracts the effect of Overkill, reducing
not increasing extinctions, while exacerbating the impact of 2OP, hastening
extinctions. Archaeologists have only used quantitative models as
descriptions to clarify the assumptions underlying a single hypothesis. The
continuing development of PEM shows the value of a model that can be
used to test multiple hypotheses, alone or in combination, using consistent
assumptions. *Whitney-Smith, E. 2003 Theory Building with System
Dynamics: Ice Age Extinctions. NYC Systems Dynamics Society meeting.
Dynamics of Vulnerability
Many of the contributing factors to computer security problems are non-
technical in nature that is, they are dependent upon human and
organizational actions and interactions in the political, social, legal, and
economic realms. However, much of the research in computer security has
had a predominantly technical focus. This paper represents a first attempt at
using the concepts of system dynamics to model some of the human and
organizational actions and interactions that impact the software vulnerability
lifecycle, which represents the relationship over time between the discovery
of security vulnerabilities (i.e., flaws) in software and the occurrence of
computer security incidents based on the exploitation of those vulnerabilities
by attackers. Although our initial model relies on several simplifying
assumptions, it points the way towards richer and more comprehensive
models that can increase our capabilities and understanding in ways not
possible through traditional computer security research approaches.
Understanding Technology Innovation and
Transfer through System Dynamics Modeling:
Implications for Requirements Projects Managers
Requirements engineering managers in software technology transfer projects
are faced with an increasingly dynamic, complex and uncertain environment
in which they make decisions. A different modelling tool is required to
navigate this increasingly complex environment. This paper demonstrates
the utility of systems dynamic modelling approach in aiding requirements
224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Graham W. Winch
graham, winch@ pbs.plym.ac.uk
University of Plymouth
Plymouth Business School
Drake Circus
Plymouth Devon PL21 0QR UK
Wendy Currie
Phil Joyce
Eric F. Wolstenholme
eric.wolstenholme@ olmgroup.com
OLM Consulting
Cairns House 10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA UK
David Monk
david monk@ olmgroup.com
OLM Consulting
OLM Group Cairns House
10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA UK.
Gill Smith
gill.smith@ olmgroup.com
OLM Consulting
Cairns House 10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA UK
Douglas McKelvie
douglas mckelvie@ olmgroup.com
OLM Consulting
Cairns House 10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA UK.
Eric F. Wolstenholme
eric.wolstenholme@ olmgroup.com
OLM Consulting
Cairns House 10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA UK
engineering project managers’ decision making. The system dynamics
model developed provides insight into the use of such models to evaluate
potential technology diffusion patterns and transfer rates of software systems
requirements projects. The model allows for comparative analysis of
possible effects of different return on investment assumptions on technology
transfer and adoption.
Making the ASP Model Work: Using System
Dynamics to Explore Leveraging in Software
Access Options
The value-added potential of e-business is the driver behind many firms
engaging with new information technology products and_ processes.
However, promise has not always been fulfilled. An apparent mismatch
between customer expectations and vendor offerings also suggests a lack of
appropriate methods and techniques for evaluating strategic benefits from e-
business, and some have argued that IT in many respects is now merely a
commodity infrastructure. This paper draws from a longitudinal research
study on application service provisioning (ASP), an e-business model
targeted mainly at small and medium businesses (SMBs). By addressing the
inherent complexity of the ASP model, the paper demonstrates how a series
of critical inter-relationships between key performance indicators (KPIs)
will impact the business value for customers. The paper offers insights into
critical factors that could make the ASP model work, and, if it could, then
how clients could still obtain competitive advantage from engaging their
services.
Using System Dynamics to Influence and Interpret
Health and Social Care Policy in the UK
Over the past two years OLM Consulting, initially in partnership with
Cognitus, have used System Dynamics (SD) modelling in a wide range of
health and social care settings to shed light on a number of difficult and
complex issues. At the national level we would claim to have used models to
moderate legislation significantly, by influencing national agencies and the
upper house of parliament. At a local level we have used SD to help health
communities interpret legislation in a meaningful and shared way to achieve
a more balanced and sustainable consensus for change. Modelling was the
means to review investment decisions from a “whole systems” and multiple
agency perspective. We have also helped communities to own models and to
work towards consolidating the modelling process into regular planning
activities. This paper describes the work carried out and its achievements
with particular reference to the role of models and the process of application.
It describes: The current state of the health field, including the challenges
created by the legislative agenda Experiences in creating a whole systems
view of hospital discharge and exploring various elements of the mental
health system. These are described in more detail in the accompanying
papers presented at this conference.
Using System Dynamics in Modeling Health and
Social Care Commissioning in the UK
Over the past two years OLM Consulting, initially in partnership with
Cognitus, have used System Dynamics (SD) modelling in a wide range of
health and social care settings to shed light on a number of difficult and
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 117
Papers continued
Douglas McKelvie
douglas mckelvie@ olmgroup.com
OLM Consulting
Cairns House 10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA UK.
Gill Smith
gill.smith@ olmgroup.com
OLM Consulting
Cairns House 10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA UK
David Monk
david monk@ olmgroup.com
OLM Consulting
OLM Group Cairns House
10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA UK.
Wenbo Xue
xuewb@ yahoo.com
Buckinghamshire Chilterns Univ College
Dept of Technology
Queen Alexandra Road
High Wycombe Bucks HP11 2JZ
UK
Christopher Hudson
chris hudson@ beuc.ac.uk
Buckinghamshire Chilterns Univ College
Queen Alexandra Road
High Wycombe Buckinghamshire HPI 1 2JZ
UK
complex issues and to influence and interpret health and social care policy in
the UK. This work has been instrumental in causing health legislation to be
modified in the Upper House of Parliament as well as helping local health
communities implement sustainable performance improvement. This paper
describes the work done in 2003 with two local health economies. It shows
the commissioning models that resulted from applying a nationally-
developed template in a local context, as well as some of the findings
obtained from running those models. The emphasis has been on
demonstrating strategies that achieve efficiency improvements for all
agencies across whole patient pathways. By modelling whole pathways from
primary care through acute care to post acute care, and focusing on
admission prevention and delayed discharges, it has been possible to show
that significant resources can be saved within agencies along the pathways,
without influencing performance.
System Dynamics Based Traffic Flow Simulation
This paper demonstrates the possibility of interconnecting System Dynamics
(SD) methodology and one-lane traffic flow simulation. The main advantage
of modelling traffic flow using the principal of System Dynamics is to
provide an understanding of the changeable system structure, which can lead
to different traffic behaviours. The work is developed on a basic traffic
model built with System Dynamics, which simulates the transport behaviour
of a one-lane road section using vehicles’ moving rules. From the basic
model, all kinds of road networks could be modelled by connecting numbers
of similar road sections. Furthermore, these road components are joined with
different traffic control infrastructures such as traffic lights, pelican
crossings or roundabouts. Therefore, different scenarios could be produced
by the changeable inputs. Using the nature of changeable objects of road
sections and controlling infrastructures, should allow transport planning and
policies to be produced and easily evaluated based on simulation processes.
118 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Kaoru Yamaguchi
kaoru3@ muratopia.org
Doshisha Business School
521 Minamidani
Aihara Goshiki-cho
Hyogo 656-1325
Japan
Hakan Yasarcan
yasarcan@ ciu.edu.tr
25 Sehit Sener Enver Sokak
Yenisehir Lefkosa
Mersin 10 TR-09000
Turkey
Yaman Barlas
ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazigi University
Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul
Turkey
Seung-Jun Yeon
naege@ infovil.co.kr
Electronics and Telecom Research Inst
161 Gaejeong-dong Yuseong-Gu
Daejeon 305-350 Korea
Sang-Hyun Park
alraview@ infovil.co.kr
Chungbuk National University
941 Industrial Technology Research Pk
48 Gaesin-dong Heungdeok-gu
Chong-ju Chungbuk 361-763 Korea
Money Supply and Creation of Deposits: System
Dynamics Macroeconomic Modeling
This is a first paper of the series of macroeconomic modeling that tries to
model macroeconomic dynamics such as the determination of GDP (Gross
Domestic Product) and money supply from system dynamics perspective.
This paper tries to model money supply and creation of deposits on a basis
of the principle of accounting system dynamics developed by the author. For
this purpose, a simple model based on gold standard is constructed first that
requires the introduction of high-powered money and monetary base as two
different stocks, contrary to the macroeconomic tradition that treat them
identically. And it is shown how money supplies based on these stocks differ
each other. The model is then expanded to a complete money supply model
that includes government securities so that central bank can exercise a
discretionary control over money supply through open market operation.
A Generalized Stock Control Formulation for
Stock Management Problems Involving Composite
Delays and Secondary Stocks
It is well established that if the stock management formulation ignores the
supply line delay, the behavior of the system can be quite oscillatory. There
are naturally other types of delays in stock management problems such as
information delays in decision processing and implicit delays involved in
controlling a primary stock indirectly via a secondary stock. But there exist
no general decision rules in system dynamics that explicitly consider these
complex delays in stock management structures. In this research, we first
show that the behavioral consequence of ignoring information delays or
ignoring the delays implicit in secondary stock control is equivalent to
ignoring the supply line delay in the standard case: large oscillations. Next
we introduce the notion of ‘virtual supply line’ and derive a generalized
stock control heuristic that does take into account these more composite
delays and show that the result is a stabilized dynamic behavior. Finally, we
implement our decision heuristic on an example involving all three types of
delays, demonstrating the “generic” nature of the proposed formulation
structure. The combined result is a significant improvement in the stability
of the system, when compared against the standard policy that considers the
supply line delays only.
(S)
A Dynamic Diffusion Model for Managing
Customer's Expectation and Satisfaction
Being successful can be just as dangerous to long-term health as being
unsuccessful. Even success can sow the seeds of failure by stressing and
overburdening the current system. While suppliers may be tempted to hype
up their products to obtain additional sales in the short term, those customers
persuaded by ‘hype’ are often disappointed with their experiences, which in
turn bears a negative impact in the long run. Starting from this point, this
paper aims at answering to the generic question on how suppliers make the
suitable and well-timed decisions in diffusing new technology effectively to
adopters. To meet this research objective, the paper attempts first to
investigate the entire process of the adoption and diffusion of technology
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 119
Papers continued
Sang-Wook Kim
sierra@ chungbukac.kr
Chungbuk National University
Dept of Management Information Systems
48 Gaesin-dong Heungdeok-gu
Chong-ju Chungbuk 361-763 Korea
Won-Gyu Ha
wgha@ etri.re.kr
Electronics and Telecom Research Inst
161 Gajeong-dong Yuseong-gu
Daejeon 305-350 Korea
Carlos Yepez
cyzambra@ connect.carleton.ca
Carleton University
110 Forward Avenue Apt 506
Ottawa ONT K1Y 489
Canada
(S)
Arif Mehmood
mehmood@ delsys.ca
Delsys Research Group Inc
45 Rideau Street Suite 400
Ottawa ON KIN 5W8
Canada
Showing H. Young
National Sun Yat-Sen University
Department of Business Management
PO Box 59-35
Kaohsiung
Taiwan
Yu-Tang Lo
m9141616@ student.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University
PO Box 59-35
Kaohsiung 804
Taiwan
Shyh-Jane Li
d9041813@ student. nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University
PO Box 59-35
Kaohsiung 804
Taiwan ROC
(S)
innovation, and then proposes an integrated model by concatenating in
structured manner the three prominent models for the management of
technology innovation such as diffusion model, adoption model, and
customer satisfaction model. An exploration of the dynamic mechanism
underlying outward behaviors of the integrated model is presented in the
study by introducing the system dynamics simulation technique.
Venture Capital Investment Dynamics during
Market Boom and Market Meltdown
By the end of the 90’s a huge amount of venture capital money was invested
in the communications and internet industries that became over-funded.
During the first years of the new millennium the landscape for venture
capital activity collapsed dramatically from its record levels. The purpose of
this study is to understand what are the drivers of venture capital over-
investment in specific industries during periods of market boom and bust, as
well as the implications of such over-investment. Prior studies suggest the
boom and bust dynamic is due to a dysfunctional response of venture capital
supply to the shifts in demand. However, these studies have failed to explore
the effect of decision making speed in venture capital performance. We
develop four investment strategies based on decision making speed, and
draw lessons to be learned by venture capitalists (VCs) when riding the next
big wave of technology investments.
A System Dynamics Evaluation of SARS
Preventing Policies in Taiwan
The early year in 2003, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, SARS, has
brought the global panic, and caused 8,422 SARS patients including 916
deaths. In Taiwan, SARS has affected 665 persons including 180 deaths. In
order to control SARS situation, each area took several policies. Because
SARS was an emerging infectious disease, we didn’t have the immunity and
treatment method in the short-term. Therefore, the most important point was
to prevent the spread of SARS. We evaluate the policy effectiveness on
preventing transmission of infectious disease from the flow and feedback
viewpoint. We divide policies into three categories. The policies are “Lower
contact policy”, “Protection Policies”, and “Quarantine policy”. In our
research, we proved that the “Protection policies” is much more
effectiveness on preventing SARS. But we still proved that if the infectivity
reach as high as10%, the spread of SARS never stop until all people
affected. We believed that Taiwan is lucky, because the infectivity of SARS
is low enough. Consequently, we ought to ponder the way to live with
viruses in the long-term, and not to resist any virus reactively.
Showing H. Young
National Sun Yat-Sen University
Department of Business Management
Exploring Some Dynamically Aligned Principles of
Developing a Balanced Scorecard
PO Box 59-35
Kaohsiung
Taiwan
120
The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) facilitates managers to balance strategic
focuses on four perspectives, on complex cause and effect relationships, and
on developing more systemic aligned strategy. But some literatures showed
224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Papers continued
Chiang-Kuo Tu
€6218923@ ms13.hinet.net
National Sun Yat-Sen University
4F No 198 Ersheng Ist Road
Kaohsiung 806
Taiwan
Shyh-Jane Li
d9041813@ student nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University
PO Box 59-35
Kaohsiung 804
Taiwan ROC
Showing H. Young
National Sun Yat-Sen University
Department of Business Management
PO Box 59-35
Kaohsiung
Taiwan
Shyh-Jane Li
d9041813@ student. nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University
PO Box 59-35
Kaohsiung 804
Taiwan ROC
Imtiaz Yusuf
Ijaz Yusuf
ijazy@ packages.com.pk
Packages Ltd
Shahrah-e-Roomi
PO Amer Sidhu
Lahore 54760
Pakistan
(S)
that the BSC theory and practice had some limitations. The root of
limitations is “cause and effect are not closely related in time and space”.
And that will mislead managers to generate misperceptions of feedback
information and execute wrong strategy. This research employs system
dynamics as a method to overcome the limitations, and focuses on
generating some dynamically aligned principles for the theory of developing
BSC with system dynamics. We perform a case study on a hospital (K
Hospital) in Taiwan, which using BSC to develop strategy, and we use
systems thinking and system dynamics to inquire its BSC strategy. We
generalize some dynamically aligned principles, including using the
dynamic pitfalls to inquire a BSC and remind managers abidingly, and
propose some critical dynamic structures to diagnose problems and generate
solutions. These principles could facilitate other organizations to inquire
their BSC and to develop their new BSC strategy. We suggested a more
dynamically aligned BSC for the case hospital.
A Model of Structural Oscillation of Conflict Goals
About the research on structural oscillation, we tried to work from a slightly
different angle. Although a large number of studies have been made on, little
is known that put conflict goal and second-order system together. This paper
is intended as an investigation of the oscillation model. The point about this
model is “Success to Successful” archetype, and central to this issue is the
problem of “nothing grows forever.” It might cause oscillation due to limited
time resource. We have chosen an example about the conflict of work and
family to illustrate this model. These results lead to transform the conflict
goals model into a generic model. We may go on from this to the conclusion
that we must be aware of warning variable and then we present the two
solutions. First, we must understand what we really want to do and consider
the priority. Second, we must change the measurements of performance in
the organizations. So the conflict goals can help us leading into reflections.
A Dynamic Model of Quality Costing: The Case of
ABC Printing Company
This paper attempts to formulate the practical means for implementing the
Quality Costing in Printing Industry. The importance of quality costing and
its benefits is not fully tapped by the production managers. Quality means
productivity and both win the industrial growth, generate the profit and reaps
the crop of money which is the language of industrial manager.
Unfortunately, the industrial managers only focus the cost of non-
conformance like waste percentage and customer rejected material but
usually ignores the cost of conformance like better planning, proper tools for
quality enhancement etc. Most of the publications deal with better quality
and high productivity issues but rarely address the quality costing and its
real benefits which can be achieved. This paper depicts the model of quality
costing in medium scale printing unit. The quality costing elements are
drawn from the literature of American Society of Quality (ASQ) and from
the Juran ‘s Handbook of Quality Control The benefits of the quality costing
have been taken by implementing the different policies devised with this
practical model and implemented in actual environment. The different
elements of cost of non-conformance have been identified and then policies
are designed on the basis of experience to bring improvement.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England 121
Papers continued
Aldo A. Zagonel
zagonel@ aol.com
Sandia National Laboratories
801 Locust NE #2160S
Albuquerque NM 87102
USA
Alexander Zock
alexander.zock@ dih.de
Deutsche Lufthansa AG
Future European Ops Ground & Inflight
Lufthansa Basis
60546 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Alexander Zock
alexander.zock@ dih.de
Deutsche Lufthansa AG
Future European Ops Ground & Inflight
Lufthansa Basis
60546 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Michael Rautenberg
michael.rautenberg@ db.com
Deutsche Bank
Theodor-Heuss-Allee 72
60486 Frankfurt
Germany
Developing an Interpretive Dialogue for Group
Model Building
This paper builds upon the review of the literature in Group Model Building
exploring the tension between modeling as a representation of reality
models as micro-worlds, and modeling as a tool for negotiating a social
order —models as boundary-objects (Zagonel, 2002, ISDC). This line of
research advocates a particular view: there are tensions in group modeling,
and these tensions may be identified and characterized by differentiating
micro-world from boundary-object approaches in model building and use. It
builds upon the premise that tensions in model conceptualization exist, and
that they are important for theory and practice. This essay suggests ways of
operationalizing the identification and characterization of these tensions, and
it reports the results of applying this framework to a small sample of
documents from one intervention.
Some Remarks on the Benefits and Limitations of
an Analytical Solution Approach to Sterman's
Generic Supply Chain Model
The management of supply chains is a well described policy design problem
in the System Dynamics (SD) literature. Nevertheless, its treatment is often
only interpretive with respect to the causes for the dynamical behavior
derived from numerical solutions for such systems. This situation hampers a
deeper understanding of the relationship between structural parameters of a
supply chain represented by its physical flow (material flow) and its
information flow (policies) and its dynamical characteristics e.g. general
dynamics, oscillation frequency, amplitude amplification and phase lag. The
author proposes to improve this situation through the use of an analytical
approach that translates the policy problem into a mathematical problem
represented by the solution of a differential equation. The feasibility of this
approach, questioned in the literature for complex systems, is demonstrated
for Sterman’s (2000) generic supply chain model, for which closed
analytical expressions between system parameters and the resulting
dynamical characteristics are derived.
A Critical Review of the Use of System Dynamics
for Organizational Consultation Projects
System Dynamics (SD) based organizational consulting projects show a
diversity of process models, conceptual frameworks and terminology. As a
consequence such practices do not meet the criteria of fully consistent and
solid consultancy approaches. Nevertheless, SD based consulting contains a
number of valuable elements. The authors propose to save and integrate
these into an existing consultancy framework, namely the systemic
intervention practice, that is derived from a systemic theory of social
systems, which is based on Maturana’s concept of autopoiesis. This
strengthens the already existing subjective worldview in parts of the SD
community and thus integrates the exploratory strength of SD, that allows a
formalized reflection of the perceived logical structure of mental models,
into a coherent consultancy framework based on interpretive and
constructivist perspectives.
122 224 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Special and Convened Sessions
Bjorn Tallak Bakken
btbakken@fil.mil.no
Norwegian Defence Leadership Inst
Oslo mil/Akershus
NO-0015 Oslo Norway
Bringing Coherence and Consensus to Public
Policy Making
These three sessions will explore the populist political notion of ‘joined-up
thinking’ in government and public policy, wherein decisions and public
funding are targeted in a coherent and efficient manner towards issues that
really matter. This plenary will feature a presentation by Nick Mabey of The
Prime Minister's Strategy Unit. He will identify the issues and challenges in
co-ordinating thinking across a wide range of government departments,
followed by an input from Prof. Eric Wolstenholme, one of the world's
leading system dynamics practitioners whose modelling work on National
Health Service planning has been highly influential. These sessions will be
chaired by Peter Day, who is a leading BBC business correspondent and
analyst. A second complementary session will contain contributions from
Vince Barabba who will examine how decision makers view the context
surrounding the decision to be made. Vince, a former senior executive with
General Motors who is well known in the States for his work on decision
tools to improve decision making in both the private and the public sectors.
The second paper is from Richard Dudley who will examine how Social
Capital is built via the network of connections among individuals in a
community. Later the same day we are holding a special session debate on
the topics raised in these sessions.
Military Roundtable
The Military Roundtable is the arena for sharing ideas and experiences on
the application of System Dynamics to military problems. The list of topics
includes, for example: strategy development; force-on-force analysis; war-
gaming; military decision making; training of military decision makers,
including command-post exercises; preparedness studies; human resource
management; development and management of military capability;
management of materiel acquisition; military logistics modeling; in-service
management. We suggest the following main topic for this year's meeting:
"The application of SDM in a network centric context". Opportunities exist
for participants to provide updates on recent research and consulting
activities, to discuss opportunities for the future and challenges that confront
those working in or having an interest in system dynamics modelling (SDM)
in a military context. We will continue the work on assembling a
compendium of models and readings on SDM in defence.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25 ~ 29, 2004 Oxford, England 123
Special and Convened Sessions continued
Peter Checkland
Lancaster University
25 Pinewood Avenue
Bolton-le-Sands Carnforth
LAS 8AR UK
Michael Pidd
m.pidd@lancaster.ac.uk
University of Lancaster
Management School
Bailrigg Lancaster
LAI 4YX UK
John D. W. Morecroft
jmorecrofi@london.edu
London Business School
Regent's Park
London NW1 4SA UK
Michael J. Radzicki
mjradz@wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Dept of Social Science and Policy
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609-2280 USA
David Exelby
dave.exelby@hvr-csl.co.uk
HVR Consulting Services Ltd
Selborne House Mill Lane
Alton Hampshire GU34 2QJ UK
David Exelby
dave.exelby@hvr-csl.co.uk
HVR Consulting Services Ltd
Selborne House Mill Lane
Alton Hampshire GU34 2QJ UK
Working Ideas, Insights for Systems Modeling:
The Broader Community of Systems Thinkers
In 2001/02, a series of research meetings funded by EPSRC and organised
by Lancaster University explored in depth the relationship between hard and
soft approaches to systems modeling. This plenary session will replay
selected insights from the meetings of particular relevance to the system
dynamics community. Talks by Peter Checkland, Michael Pidd and John
Morecroft will be followed by discussion facilitated by Kim Warren.
Economic Roundtable
The economic dynamics roundtable offers a discussion forum for system
dynamicists who are interested in economic modeling. This year, the
economic dynamics chapter of the System Dynamics Society will reveal its
new web site and lead a discussion on the ways it can be enriched. A report
on the most recent uses of system dynamics in heterodox economic
modeling will be presented and WPI's "History of EconomicThought via
System Dynamics" project will be introduced. All interested persons are
welcome.
Business Roundtable
Modelling Assistance Workshop
In recent years, there has been a modelling assistance workshop at the
International SD conference (many thanks to Paul Newton and Jack Homer
for establishing this). The Oxford conference will also be including such a
workshop. The objective of the workshop is to enable anyone to discuss any
aspect of SD modelling they may be undertaking with experienced
modelling coaches. Topics could include assessing the applicability of SD,
conceptualisation, detailed formulation, analysis and communication. We
will be following the successful approach of assigning coaches to modellers
needing assistance. It is intended that these will be one on one sessions and
we will match the most appropriate coaches to the modellers' needs.
124 22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25 29, 2004 Oxford, England
Special and Convened Sessions continued
José J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@hia.no
Agder University College
Faculty of Engineering and Science
Grooseveien 36
NO-4876 Grimstad Norway
Burak Giineralp
guneralp@uiue.edu
Univ of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
1102 S Goodwin Avenue
W-515 Turner Hall
Urbana IL 61801 USA
Anastassios Perdicoulis
tasso@utad pt
Univ de Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro
Quinta dos Prados
5000-911 Vila Real Portugal
Security — Information Security
The session consists of three papers: Business Dynamics Based Template
Model For Security Policy Management; Preliminary System Dynamics
Maps of the Insider Cyber-Threat Problem; Dynamics of Vulnerability. The
first paper uses a basic model of an information system (IS) to highlight the
broad impact of security policies. The other papers are fruits of a
collaboration that begun when cyber security experts at CERT Coordination
Center contacted the Security SIG of the System Dynamics Society for the
purpose of exploring the ability of SD to deal with aspects of the cyber
security threat far defying satisfactory treatment. The second paper deals
with the threat posed by insiders to cyber systems and formulates a
“dynamic trigger hypothesis” as escalating mechanism exposing the IS to
attack. Dynamics of Vulnerability discusses the lifecycle of attacks on
information systems via software vulnerabilities — i.e. bugs that can be
exploited by hackers to run malicious code.
PhD Colloquium
The 5th International Ph.D. Colloquium is an event of the System Dynamics
Student Chapter. Its objective is to bring together Ph.D. students who are
involved in System Dynamics research and to give them the opportunity to
raise key questions and/or concerns related to their research and discuss
these in depth in a constructive and enjoyable atmosphere. The diversity and
the interactive setting provide a unique learning opportunity for all
participants. Students who intend participating in the Ph.D. Student
Colloquium should be in the early phase of their research, but after having
settled on a research area or thesis topic. The students closely interact with
established faculty and others of the wider system dynamics community.
This year, the all-day colloquium will open with a series of faculty talks.
Three presentation blocks will follow them. In each block there are two
consecutive 20-minute presentations. The presentations are followed by two
parallel 30-minute workshops during which participants can discuss the
questions/concerns raised. There will also be a 1-hour poster session after
the presentation sessions in order to give all the students who have submitted
a proposal the chance to present their work.
Environmental Roundtable
After a request for proposals through the ED SIG's communication channel,
SDsustain, three main issues are set to be discussed at the 2004
Environmental Dynamics Roundtable: (a) the possibility for collaboration
with the US EPA-CREM, regarding their environmental models; (b) the
possibility of creating synergy with other entities that take interest in
Sustainable Development: i.e. other SDS SIGs/ chapters (e.g. Economic
Dynamics, Strategy Dynamics), governments or NGOs, and societies/
associations related with Sustainable Development, Planning, Environmental
Impacts, Economics, etc.; (c) how to make Environmental Dynamics more
“dynamic”: online discussions (SDsustain), case studies/ _projects/
collaborations, collection and registration of existing published material in
ED SIG's Resource Database, the new initiative of the Repository of
Working Papers, and other ideas.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25 ~ 29, 2004 Oxford, England 125
Special and Convened Sessions continued
Alex Schmid System Dynamics Model Database: An Online
a.schmid@savannah-simulations.ch ‘ .
Savannah Simulations Repository for System Dynamics Models
Alte Dorfstrasse 24
8704 Herrliberg The knowledge and the exchange of system dynamics models is an essential
Switzerland part for the development of the methodology in and outside the System
Dynamics community. The online model database available at the URL
http://www.systemdynamics-database.ch has been built up for this purpose
and should become a central repository for SD models and SD knowledge.
The models can be uploaded by researchers, consultants, institutions and all
parties interested in the development and distribution of SD models. The
models are categorized by topic, an abstract can be added to describe the
model content and they can be downloaded from the database. To evaluate
the practical value of the model, there is also rating and review functionality
for the users of the model.
126 22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25 29, 2004 Oxford, England
Workshops
Henk A. Akkermans
henk@minase.nl
Minase BV
PO Box 278 Fabrieksstraat 1a
5000 AG Tilburg
The Netherlands
Wiebe Cnossen
wiebe@minase.nl
Minase BV
PO Box 278 Heuvelring 69
5000 AG Tilburg
The Netherlands
Paul Bogerd
paul@minase.nl
Minase Consulting BV
PO Box 278
5000 AG Tilburg
The Netherlands
Vincent P. Barabba
vbarabba@sbeglobal.net
Market Insight Corporation
308 Cherry Avenue
Capitola CA 95010
USA
Mark Paich
mpaich@att.net
Decisio Consulting Inc
201 Linden Street 3202
Fort Collins CO 80524
USA
Michael Bean
mbean@forio.com
Forio Business Simulations
2320 Jones Street
San Francisco CA 94133
USA
Riding the Seven Waves: Mastering Supply
Network Dynamics
This workshop discusses different aspects of complex dynamic behavior in
supply chains and networks. More and more companies operate in effect as
parts of highly decentralised interorganisational supply networks. This
makes the challenge of coordinating activities within these networks all the
greater. Companies have to "ride the waves" of many dynamic developments
that they alone cannot control.
In this workshop, we look at seven of those waves: - How to avoid the
bullwhip effect ofupstream demand amplification? - How to keep capacity
in syne with sales as market demand keeps increasing? - How to smoothen
the transition from product development to production ramp-up? - How to
smoothen the effects of the business cycle on your company’s performance?
- How to grow effective and close partnership with key suppliers and
customers without losing flexibility in the market? - How to make the
dynamics of market standardisation work for instead of against you? - How
to manage timely transitions in organisational change? Workshop format
will be highly interactive, with tailored presentations on the one hand, and
group model-building sessions on the other. Computerised models of these
policy issues will be available. Pre-session input by participants of relevant
supply network dynamics issues is highly appreciated.
Impact of Context in Selecting Decision Tools for
use in Both the Public and Private Sectors
An important first step towards “bringing coherence and consensus to public
policy making” is to ensure there is coherence and consensus in how
decision makers view the context surrounding the decision to be made. The
workshop elaborates on a description of three prototypical approaches that
distinguish alternative points of view in considering a decision’s context.
The approaches anchor the ends of a continuum that encompasses the worlds
of simplicity/certainty and complexity/uncertainty as well as a midpoint that
offers a point of view to help clarify the opportunities found at the ends of
the continuum. The three prototypical designs are captured by the terms:
make-and-sell, sense-and-respond, and anticipate-and-lead. To demonstrate
the impact of the mindset of context on decisions tool choice, an example
using agent-based systems dynamics modeling to address questions related
to the acculturation of the Hispanic population in the United States will be
presented.
Methods to Make Your Simulation Run on the
World Wide Web
Simulations that run in web browsers have the advantages of global
accessibility, simple distribution, and the ability to monitor simulation
usage. However, simulations need to be modified in order to effectively use
the online medium. Online simulations need to engage the user, be
accessible in multiple formats, be simple to navigate, and correspond to the
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25 ~ 29, 2004 Oxford, England 127
Workshops continued
Robert L. Eberlein
bob@vensim.com
Ventana Systems Inc
17 Loker Street
Wayland MA 01778
USA
Diana Fisher
dfisher25@verizon.net
Wilson High School
7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008
USA
David P. Kreutzer
davidpkreutzer@aol.com
Successfull Systems
110 Lexington Street
Weston MA 02493
USA
Brenda Burke
beb252@mfire.com
Successful Systems
110 Lexington Street
Weston MA 02493
USA
user's learning objectives. Usability design is critical to create simulations
that will be used by a diverse, global audience with limited knowledge of
simulation, short attention spans, and unarticulated use objectives. During
the workshop, Michael Bean will demonstrate how to create web
simulations, discuss commonly occurring web simulation design challenges
and potential solutions, and show examples of web simulations that have
been used by thousands of us Michael will also provide a series of
guidelines for creating simulations online. Michael will provide handout
booklets, sample simulations, and sample HTML pages that can be used to
create your own first web simulation.
Using Kalman Filtering to Compare Data and
Model Behavior
Noise and other disturbances can make the trajectories that variables follow
very unpredictabled. A consequence of this is the difficulty of comparing a
deterministic simulation with data. By applying a Kalman filter it is possible
to adjust the trajectory based on the data and make this comparison more
meaningful. This is the solution to the dilemna described in appendix K of
industrial dynamics. The workshop will describe how this is done and
demostrate the results of doing it using the Vensim software. This will be a
lecture style presentation.
Starting a System Dynamics Program in Your
School For Students Grades K Through 12
The workshop will demonstrate a multi-faceted approach to the problem of
starting a system dynamics program in a K to 12th grade school
environment. Student work will be demonstrated. A CD containing training
materials used in the National Science Foundation CC-STADUS/CC-
SUSTAIN Project will be available (at no cost) for all participants. These
materials have been developed over the 8 year history of the project, training
high school and middle school math, science, and social studies teachers to
create STELLA models and curricular materials to use in their classroom.
The CD will also contain teacher created project modules that have been
edited. The workshop will also introduce materials developed in Carlisle,
Massachusetts for younger students in kindergarten through eighth grade.
Technology Adoption Strategies in Energy
Production
128 22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25 ~ 29, 2004 Oxford, England
Workshops continued
Richard Langheim
richlangheim@yahoo.com
Ramapo College of New Jersey
37 Mary Lane
Waldwick NJ 07463
USA
Douglas McKelvie
douglas.mckelvie@olmgroup.com
OLM Consulting
Cairns House 10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA
UK
Alfredo O. Moscardini
alfredo.moscardini@sunderland.ac.uk
University of Sunderland
School of Computing and Technology
St Peter’s Campus
Sunderland $R6 ODD UK
Stephen J. Brewis
steve. brewis@bt.com
BT
6 Poplars Close
Blakesley Towchester
Northants NN12 8RW UK
Leonie Solomons
leonie.solomons@sunderland.ac.uk
University of Sunderland
St Peter's Campus
School of Computing Room 201
Sunderland SR1 0DD UK
Using Semantica as a Scaffold to Systems Thinking
Semantica is a cognitive tool that enables users to build a publicly shared
web of understanding about a problem. This workshop will briefly review
the research on the problems that students encounter in developing and using
systems thinking and the research on semantic networks. Semantica will be
demonstrated using a variety of networks from different disciplines. The
audience will collaboratively develop a semantic network about a topic
selected by the audience at the workshop. A comparison of the cognitive
processes and the specifics of tools, such as Semantica and STELLA, will
clarify the comparative advantages of each application. Finally, the
application and utility of the use of semantic networking, based upon
experiences with pre-service teacher education students and in-service
teachers, as a precursor to introducing and using systems thinking, especially
in the pre-college academic environment, will be explored with the
participants.
Planning Health and Social Care Services for Older
People in North West London Using System
Dynamics
This is a demonstration and discussion of the latest iteration of the ithink(c)
model outlined in the plenary conference session (E. Wolstenholme et al),
applied to older people's use of health and social care services in three
boroughs, to assist strategic planning. Older people move between modes of
care community, hospital, intermediate, long-term) differently depending on
their levels of dependency. This
presents a significant challenge to those charged with strategic planning
across sectoral boundaries. The model illustrates the complexity of joint
planning, providing a tool for learning and mutual understanding across
operational divisions. Feedback loops include operational management
responses when services operate near capacity. Planners learn that they need
to balance service capacity against rates of flow (where the main variables
are length of stay and service capacity), across the whole system. The
presenters will be able to report on the current impact of the modelling
project on strategic service planning.
Recognising Cybernetic Principles Manifested in
Self-Organising Systems
Given science’s search for invariant laws and the quickened pace of change
that organisations are confronted with, the question we want to address in
this workshop is ‘what is the relationship between the invariant laws and
self-organising teams?’ For this purpose the workshop we will call upon the
participants to self organise into teams in order to produce a result in the
context of a fast paced changing environment. Having experienced this
game, the participants will be invited to reflect upon the laws that were
evidenced in the way that they self organised. In this regard, we will
examine the evidence to see if we can detect such laws as: A: McCulloch’s
Law of Redundancy of Potential Command; B: Ashby’s Law of Requisite
Variety; C: Beer’s Law of Cohesion. From the results of the exercise, we
seek to elucidate how the laws help us to deal with changing and turbulent
environments. Attention will also be drawn to how the self-organising
teams cope with the need for dynamic change of purpose(s) and what are the
requirements to sustain viability.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25 ~ 29, 2004 Oxford, England 129
Workshops continued
Dennis Sherwood
dennis @silverbulletmachine.com
Silver Bullet Machine Manufacturing Co
Barnsdale Grange The Avenue
Exton Rutland LE15 8AH
UK
Dennis Sherwood
dennis@silverbulletmachine.com
Silver Bullet Machine Manufacturing Co
Barnsdale Grange The Avenue
Exton Rutland LE15 8AH
UK
Rohita Singh
rohita.singh@geniusys.com.au
Geniusys Pty Ltd
47 Beaumont Street
Waterloo NSW 2017 Sydney
Australia
Imrana A. Umar
imrana.umar@powersimsolutions.com
Powersim Solutions
585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon VA 20170 USA
Senthil Natchimuthu
snatchimuthu@powersimsolutions.com
Powersim Solutions
585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon VA 20170 USA
(S)
Making Creativity Deliberate
Creativity - the ability, and confidence, to generate new ideas — is an integral
aspect of much of systems thinking and system dynamics modelling. We all
do this intuitively — but is creativity necessarily an intuitive process? Or can
it be made deliberate and systematic? And can people be trained to become
more creative? In this highly interactive and energising workshop, Dennis
Sherwood will argue — convincingly — that the answer these questions is
‘no’, ‘yes’ and ‘yes’ respectively. To prove the point, he will show you how
to use his InnovAction!TM process - and you will be amazed how many
new ideas you will be able to discover!
Fast-track Strategic Modeling
Scenario planning is, arguably, the most powerful of the strategic planning
methodologies, and system dynamics modelling is a wonderful way to
simulate the dynamic behaviour of any scenario. Strategy planning models,
however, are complex, and since each business is different, we are always
starting from scratch. But is this necessary? Are there ways of making
strategic modelling a much more generic process? In this workshop, Dennis
Sherwood will describe some work he has been doing recently in creating a
generic strategic modelling structure. Of course, this is not a complete
answer to all strategic modelling problems, but Dennis feels that the
structure he will be describing is a very useful core. Dennis will much
appreciate your views!
Cultural Transformation Geniusys
How do you create an organisational culture where you can get the best out
of your people while still improving on your bottom line? If this question is
one that interests you, this workshop will provide a forum to explore some
new and innovating ideas. First we will explore how we can use systems
thinking to develop a strategic planning framework that addresses key issues
that impact the success of cultural transformation programmes (CTPs). Next
we will use systems thinking and the Geniusys psychology dynamics model
to explore how we can implement the strategy through coaching and training
staff. Hands on exercises will be provided that demonstrate how we can use
the Geniusys model to lower resistance and increase individual motivation
towards the CTP. This workshop will demonstrate the “motivation
linguistics pattern”, which is the key tool used to increase the motivation of
staff towards the CTP.
ExTrain®: Management Training Platform for
Simulation-based Learning and Knowledge
Management
System dynamics models having long been used for management training
and decision support through the use of Management Flight Simulators or
Microworlds, but there has never been an environment especially designed
to facilitate the complex process of strategic planning. Powersim ExPlan® is
a web-based application platform which enables managers to engage in
strategic management, namely, applying strategic thinking and planning to
130 22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25 ~ 29, 2004 Oxford, England
Workshops continued
Peter Vanderminden
peter.vanderminden@jpmorganpartners.com
JP Morgan Partners LLC
1211 Ave of Americas Floor 40
New York NY 10036
USA
Markus Schwaninger
markus.schwaninger@unisg.ch
University of St Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a
CH-9000 St Gallen Switzerland
Kim D. Warren
kim@strategydynamics.com
London Business School
Two Farthings Aylesbury Road
Monks Risborough Bucks HP27 0JS
UK
the job of running their organization. They can incorporate scenario and
strategic planning in the day-to-day management of their organization. This
includes the integration of corporate-wide planning and budgeting,
continuous (rolling) forecasting and a linkage and alignment between
operations, management and strategy. After a brief introduction to the
ExPlan® environment, participants will learn in details the design and use of
ExPlan®, as well as have the opportunity to create and test their strategies
using the application.
Integrated Systems Methodology for the Mapping,
Measurement, and Modeling of Knowledge Based
Processes
The modern firm creates value by operating assembly lines of thought,
however process improvement practices remain tethered to methods
developed for factory floors. Organizational value chains are often
intangible and resistant to improvement using methods developed for simple
probabilistic systems. The knowledge of how work gets done is typically
qualitative, implicit, tacit and individually owned. Firms struggle to make
their processes tangible, explicit, quantitative and organizationally owned.
Improvement of knowledge based processes requires heuristics for
organizational learning and anticipation to enable viable emergence, agility,
adaptation and sustainability of self-organizing systems, in contrast to the
traditional emphasis on process optimization. This workshop will present an
Integrated Systems Methodology, using case studies and exercises, that has
been designed for mapping, measurement, modeling and improvement of
knowledge based processes that incorporates System Dynamics,
Cybernetics, Information Theory, Emergence Theory, the Viable Systems
Model, Neural Net Cognitive Modeling, Requisite Variety Engineering and
Decision Automation Engineering.
Reaching Out to Others: Helping 'Dynamic
Virgins' Understand with Models and Microworlds
Microworlds have long featured as powerful tools for helping newcomers
see the implications of feedback in business, social and other systems. A
larger prize can be had, however, by re-presenting phenomena that are well-
known in other fields in a form that will be readily familiar to professionals
in other fields. The dynamic performance and policy implications for staff-
development, customer acquisition, product development, asset-aging, and a
host of other examples, can only truly be grasped through hands-on
experience - and simulations offer a much faster and lower-cost form of
experience than the real world! This workshop will show how well-known
phenomena can be captured in models ranging from small spreadsheets up to
fully-featured learning environments, then used in a wide range of
educational settings, both within organisations and universities. Participants
will be able to experience some of these examples for themselves, and
explore opportunities that may exist for increasing dynamic insight amongst
their own audiences.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25 ~ 29, 2004 Oxford, England 131
Workshops continued
Kim D. Warren
kim@strategydynamics.com
London Business School
Two Farthings Aylesbury Road
Monks Risborough Bucks HP27 0JS
UK
David Wheat
dwheat@wheatresources.com
Wheat Resources Inc
PO Box 19234
Roanoke VA 24019
USA
Wielding the 'Choice Pipeline' for Stakeholder
Development in Strategy Dynamics Projects
Strategy studies that pay rigorous attention to dynamic coherence frequently
surface some common, and powerful frameworks. One such framework that
has proved especially powerful is the ‘choice pipeline’, and this workshop
will both show why and how this framework works, and give participants
practice in its use. Organisations of all kinds 'compete for choice' of key
stakeholder groups - customers are the most obvious example, but staff,
investment providers, volunteers, advertisers and many other groups may
feature in businesses, public-sector organisations, NGOs or voluntary
groups. These groups cannot simply be switched from ignorance to total
commitment, but must instead be taken up a 'pipeline' of states - through
awareness, understanding, tentative participation, for example. This
workshop will show how the simple stock/flow structure that captures this
process, and demonstrate how ubiquitous and powerful it is. It will also
show how to coach a management team through its use, to bring them to a
clearer understanding of 'what to do, when and how much' so as to achieve
much-improved performance. Workshop participants will be coached in
small groups to tackle challenges of their own, using this framework, and
see how to use a simple dynamic models to explore its implications in real
situations.
MacroLab: Model Facilitated Learning of
Macroeconomics
What is MacroLab? A system dynamics model and interactive learning
environment (ILE) used in a macroeconomics distance-learning course at a
Virginia college. Who should attend? Anyone interested in how models can
be used to facilitate learning. What will you do? Gain economic
understanding by test- driving the model; gain insight for an ILE in your
own field. What will you take away? A MacroLab demo disk and user
guide; insights gained from hands- on activities and group discussions. Who
is the facilitator? An experienced consultant, award- winning instructor, and
PhD candidate in system dynamics. How is this workshop different from last
year’s? More feedback from students, preliminary experimental findings on
MacroLab’s effectiveness as an instructional tool, and a complete semester
curriculum.
132 22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25 ~ 29, 2004 Oxford, England
Author Index
Abd El Azeem, Ahmed ............cccccecseeseeees 33
Aburawi, [zidean 0.0.0... ccccececcesseseeseeeseeeees 65
Ackermann, FYran............:..cccsccsscssesseseeseesseees 33
Adamides, Emmanuel ...............::000 33, 105
Alimed, Neveen.......ccccececeseesesesseseseeeeeeeeeees 34
Akkermans, Henk............:c:ccccseseceseesee 34, 127
Albréchtséit Lisé-ccscccnssriencennances 35
Alizadeh, Somayeh .........cceeeeeeseeeeeeeeeees 71
AlsaticA IPttissiccssnnnnsnnwsnmnncaasiss 64
Altamirand, Monta sacssssissesacenecnsivess 35
Alvarez deToledo Saavedra, Pablo .......0...... 52
AmbrozZ, Kristjan... cceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 102
Andersen, David.............. 33, 36, 83, 112, 113
Arénas,. Fermiand cssscovsssscasescseeevesseveseseseoves 37
Argyrides, Andry 0... eeeseeeseeeseees 61
Ariza-Zabala, GEtly sssssisssssvesssersssrivevsseves 104
Arteta; Stefan sscssasscssessevenamecseeesesesees 37
Atun, Rifat..c..ceccccccccesseeeseeceseeeeseseeeeseeee 79
Aybat, Necdet Serhat wees 38
Bakken; Bent. Bak cscserssescsvasecseovsensweseseveevare 39
Bakken, Bjorn ......ceeeeeeseeeseeeeeeeeeees 38, 123
Bammer, Gabricléscessecscsscncensnncen: 39
Barabba, Vincent............:cccceeeee 39, 123, 127
Barlas, Yamat........eceeeceeeeeeeeeee
Barlow, James .
Bartiabé; Redetite wesicisassecssrasveniinvveccvecseae 40
Bartoszczuk, Pawel ..........ccccccceseeceseeseeseenee 40
Bass; Eval scswuscsonnnsennscwusee 110
Bassi, AWGre as ciscsasnacascevniinvvccvecsias 41
Bayer, Steffen... ccceeseeseeseeseeeeeeeees 41
22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Béaii: Michael jsccscwvavscswawesscsnavaaeeees 127
Bertini, ACriano 20........ceceeeeeeeeeseeeeeeteeeeteeeeee 37
Beyelét, Walt css anaes 42
Bianchi, Catinitie wcccvsiwawesncmves 42, 43
Biber, Peter .......cccccccceeceesescseeceseeeeseeeeeeeeeeee! 43
Binder, THOMAS sisasnxsnmncnncmnaniee 44
Birdsill JOSHUA sc eassessscsmsmnnanes 110
Bishara, Adel........c.cceccecccseeseeseseeeeseeeeeeeeeeeeee! 44
Bivona; EniZoxexccannnnnencenenaans 43
Blaiichat; Carol sscaninuwasaeanacawawwens 52
Blinov, Alexander ..........ccccccceceseeceeeeeeeeeeeeee! 44
Bodor, Tamas ..0.......:.ceccsesseeeseeeeseseeeeseeees 83, 84
Boge, Paul sssessicsssveassscavsvevsnsvessrsecasecasees 127
BOIS J RODE sxcscsssesvessnaenanerenavesveneisced 45
Borshchev, Andrei .........:.::cccsseceeseseeeeeeeeeeeeeee! 45
Bourguet-Diaz, Rafael .........ccceseeeeeeeeeee 45
Boyd, David ssssisssssssscssnsssvssssrssncevsvevsnssvsssveneed 48
Boyer, Jeffrey ....cceceeeseeeeeseseeeseseeeseeneeeeee 46
Biehine?, Bett secon wenarnwansneesen' 46
Breuer, AUS sccscsssesvenneevencsereearescoversieee 47
Brewis, Stephen 0.0... eee 129
Biwi; Thetest cscs wenarnwanneesen' 42
Bietio; NEW ths scsssssscesusensnaeversesvevesevessvsexee’ 47
Burke, G. Brian... 83, 84
Butler, John
Campbell, Deborah wcccsiscsssscsscvssevssessavsssveveess 47
Canestraro, Donna..........ccececeeseseeeteeees 83, 84
Canova, LUCatG ssc ecnecnnsnunsanal 53.
Capel, Carlos sss csssonesssiseiersseccsmnscevecaedl 48
Cappelli, Dawn oo... eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 36
July 25-29, 2004 Oxford, England 133
Author Index continued
Casanova, Philippe
Castiaux pAnnICK cen ccanecancanene 48
Cavatia, ROBE iciaccncsascnniiavess 48, 57
Checkland, Peter .........ccccececeseeeseeeeeteeeeee 124
Chen; Ya0-Tsung sjcissssasscassusisaserscesesresscasnnss 49
Cheriiyshov, Sergey sccnsssnsavosncrvsnseense 49
Chlebus, Edward .......0.ccccceceseeeseeeeseteeeeeeees 98
Choi, Nam-Hee .0.......c.ceceeeeseeceseseeeeseteeeeeees 79
Chitty Ted wsssscssucsssesssvesssessarerssensssararestiensnsesess 49
Cloutier, Martine... eeeeeeeeeeees 50, 109
Crossen, Wiebe...........:cceceeceeseeseseteeseteeeeee 127
COda; VittOHG exncmaannnanannncicsy 61, 88
Coker Rithatd sess sscsessxesevvsesvoeneeswensereeare 79
Colombo, Gianluca ..0.......:ccccccececeeseteteeeeeees 50
Conrad, Stephen vcisssssssscasecspecssecsvcanveseressrss 51
Conway; Charles: iscvssssssssssisesvsnsesssessesseevs 110
Cooke, David .......cececececeeseseseeeeseeeeseeeeeseeee 51
COK, Jains sessecasmsnncennenanweans 85
CO, MCLANE cccsess sesesessxeseressesvorneinseenesereere 51
Crespo Marquez, Adolfo... 52
Cresswell, Anthony ......ccceeeeseeseeeeees 83
Curram, Stephetississsssessssosrssscssvsrssssceavessevense 52.
Currie, Wendy ......ceeeceeeeeeseeeeeeeteeeeeneeeeeee 117
Cutty Richt sesssessecescoscnsraesnaniesiens 42
Dalé, REDCCCA ciscsrassnaeasrenniinvccvessiae 54
Dangerfield, Bria:
DavidseiyP al ssswecnesnnewanwens 35
Davids; JOD ti sscssscscicvsnancrvnenaavnnewe 85
Dawes, Sharon .........cccccecccesseeseeseseeeeeenee 83, 84
Day; Pete tisnncnnunacaanasnnannuns 123
Daysal, Sine scssccssessscsssvsvasservasiesevessvensvensves 38
Deegan, Michael
Demircivi, Fikre
Di Giulio; Vinten 20 wexccmacemamsnmnnd 53
Did8;J6a6 isscsccuwannnccsnenmnnces 48, 54
DiFrancesca, James ........ccccceceseeeeseseeeeeeeeeeee 54
Dingethal, Claudia 0.0... 54,55
Dogat, GOLAN scrimmages 55
Dominguez, Carlos occ 108
Dudley, Richard ........0.cceeceseeeeeeee 56, 123
Digeati, Jit ccnaninneecmnannaent 56
Durfee, Jessica .......ccceceeceeeeeseeeeseteeeeeeee 56, 58
Dwyer, Michael... cececeseeeeeeeeeee 57, 106
Ebétléiti, RObEettwannacanswunnncna 128
ELE Mate sescsessxesevvssesvorneenaanscerevnavesevesersiaee 69
Elias, ATUD wo. teeceeeseseseseseeeseseeeeeeeseeeeeeeeeee 57
Elizondo Azuela, Gabriela........0...:ccceee 57,
Ellis, Rs Ev aticsscccvsssvscssssssvesonsssvessvezensessveveces’ 58
Elter, JOWN .....eecececceccceeseeseseseeceseeeeseeeeeeeeeeeee! 46
Bitty PHD sess sscsssewannsnccanes 56, 58
Eskinasi,, Martijn ssssssssssssvsscesvessvsosvavssevevevsseors 59
Eslami Bidgoli, Saeed... eee eeeeee 99
Essicti, JOY Ce csssscsnsrncmeanncsnn 69
Exelby, David ssccccvssssvsssissssesscascsevsaneeseeve 52, 124
Fa, JOR eee eceeeceeceseseeeeseeeeseseeceseeeeseseeeeseeeeee 35
Fatt, Jottiveawesnseomnnenanmeanunens: 91
Faulktier; An Qus sscssssssisssssscssscsssessscsvavovaevens 66
Filipe, Jose .
Pilippovy:AlEX 1 ssssessessrsrvissnsssrseuennacseeneiony 45
Pinskid, Latshescsiscavsniunvvcavecmnevve! 96
Fisher, Diana ........ccccceeceeeseseeeeteeeeeeeees 59, 128
Ford; David ssisssssnmasunmnnmnnaaneas. 79
POttest JAY savsccsssvovsssssvasevavseevscassessevsvavovssaesved 60
Forster, Craig .
134 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 2529, 2004 Oxford, England
Author Index continued
Friedland, Cari 110
Buchs; Hannes sca cnnea ana 114
Fulenwider, Margaret... cisccccssssccssscsvsavsssessves 60
Furihata, Tetsuma........c.ccceceseeeeseeeeeeseeeeeeee 108
Gabor, Andras y..c5.ssscasscsesiscisesesaseterneeaiee 107
GaCO RHE, Valerie scsccssssscsescavsevsssscanssavessvessass 60
Gann, David .0.....c.eecceeeseeseseseeeeseeeeeeseeeeseeees 41
Garsson, Kuau......c.cecccesecesseseseeseeeseeeeeeeee 111
Gattid; Canning sccansancnavannccanneT 61
Gassmann, FYitZ ........:.ceceeeeseseeeeseeeeeeseeeeseeees 71
Gaudet-Dumais, Felix 0.0.00... cccceeeteteeees 50
Georgantzas, Nicholas «00.0... 61
Ghatib; SamMel ss csscscserssevcsvasecseoverevsensenceees 61
Gill, Anthony... eeseeseeseeneene 62
Gilljain, Martin sscssecssesscsscsssssrouseasncsreaesrss 38
Gongalves, Paul ssiscosissscsssrsosssvsvaveveosveoneavese 62
Gonzalez Gonzalez, Carina............:ccccee 81
GONZALEZ, JOSE wevssccoescess 36, 63, 116, 125
Gonzalez; Marcela sccesssscssvavecsrevvsseseesvevesee 108
Graham, Alan .......cecececeseeseseseeeeseeeeeeeeeeeeees 63
Grasso, Marco....
Grossmann, WoOIf ........ccceeceseeeeseeeeseeeeeseeees 64
Giuipp; Hatiol f essscssssssssseansueaeaawaees 101
GiNddS, Valiti-ssiscscvasnacaseevniinveccsvessiae 64
Giineralp, Burak.
GUVEN; Ca glat ccssesseccscoscnsamesnenieeens 65
Ha, WOn-Gyt wsscississsscsssesssssveaverssnveaees 92, 120
Haefeli, Ueli...cecccccecceseeseeeseeseseteeeeneeeeee 112
Harem, Thorvald ssa ccancmscamncanaie 38
HafeéZ, Khalid ssscscasinacaseevrcniiavvecccvescie 65
Hailegiorgis, Workneh.
22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Harisoulis, Dimitrios
Harnpornchai, Napat.........eeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 77
Haslett; Titi cscs 66
Heffernan, Mark... eects 66, 67
Heijmen; Twansssinrecmaacananiae 98
Helines, Philip seccsvcisssesssscavsvssserssnssreasierassseel 60
Helo, Petri... cecececeeseeseseseseseseseseseeeseeeseee 67
Hillen, Stefanie .........cc ce ceccceceeeeeseeeeeeeeeeeeeee! 67
Hilmola, Olli-Pekka oo... 76
Hines, James ......c.ccccccceseeceseseeseseeseseeeeeeeeeseee! 62
Hirsch, Gary ....ecccceceseeseseseeeseseeeseseseseeeeeeeee 68
Ho fiiatin, He assesses 112
Holiisttoiiy Paul cssssescesasscaascercesvevesevesersece 69
Homer, Jack ......ccceccececceseseseeeeseeeeeeeeseeeee 68, 69
Hopkins, Patiela ssscsssessiscsensseisuesnsaiesiees 106
Hovmand, Peter scscsssssssesesxsvovesseseossecevenses 47, 69
Howick, Susan ........ccccccceeseeseeceseeeeseeeeeeeeeeee 33
Hudson, Christopher ........ cece 118
Huerta, JUatvecsscscossesvonneeeweeerneanecovnsie 70
Husemann, Elke... eceeceeeeseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 77
Hwatig, Lihlian ws ssscssssrseewsssrauennasees 70
Theda. Mak0t0 tccsseinsscsesvsnxvensssxesevessesvorsneenewess 70
Jabal Aameli, Mohammad ..............:::ceeeeee 71
JacksSOn; Maiti epscsmncwecnncenunsenal 57,
Jaime Vivas, Ricardo Vicente... 71
Janssen, Arthur.
Jes; BIngChiang ncsnsurerenmnesen 49
JeS6H;: EWE wcnasascemninuicavecamevre 72
Joglekar, Nitin... eeeeeeeseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 79
Johannessen, Sts scm. 39
JOHBStONE; ROW a cascvsniniveaveccamnevrent 51
Jones, Andrew
July 25-29, 2004 Oxford, England 135
Author Index continued
Jongebreur, Wouter...
Jorpensen; Bradscnenammsmnmonnaes 51
Joyce, Phil sicsscsssscsssvesssevssessssnvessessanesssevsiwess 117
Kalin, C3 oe ecececeeeceesesecesesnesestessessenene 72
Kapmeier, Florian ssscissscscessisasazesecesesnresscasass 12;
Kasperidtis, Hats ...iscsiscsicssssessssssssscosseasseavess 43
Kaufmann-Hayoz, Ruth wee 112
Keenan, Philip... ceceeeseeeseeeseeeseeeseees 73
Kelly: Gail sessscssssavsgussseassevesssessssavesneeviensnsesess 73.
Kemper, Andreas .0.....ceeeeeseeseeseeeeeeeeeees 73
Khan, Naeem.......c.ceceeeceeceeeseeeeseeeeeeeeeeeeeees 74
Khattab Ashtat accncansancnavannciccnnet 74
Ket, Blotiativess sccessxeseovsesvonneiiwensereeare q3
Kim, Sang-Joon.....cceceeeeeeseseseeeseeeseeeeeees 92
Kim, Sang-Wo0k 0... ccceseeeeeeeeees 92, 120
Kiousis, A gapios .isccvsissssssssesesvsnsesssessessonys 105
Klaas, Peter .....c.ecceccececcecesceseseseeeeseeeeseeeeeeees 75
Kljajic, Miroljub.......c cesses een 75
KI GK, JONG ssscscesmensersseresuvacsvorneneentserneare 89
Koblov, Andrey.....cceceeeeeeeseeseeeseeeeeeeeeees 44
Kofjac, Davorin
Koltchanov, Vladimit.......0.....ccceeeeeeseeees 75
Kopainsky, Birgit... ceeseeseeseeeeeeeeeees 76
Koskinen, Matti-Mikael ..........0...ccceeeeees 76
Rititiy Veastit sccsssescssiersaveenserasrenavenseccsvessiae 716
Kune, Martin
Lane, David
Langheim, Richard... 78, 129
Langley, David......cceeeseeseeseeseeeeeeeees 89
Tarsson; Matia scan ccnnen nance 108
LaVG1,, GUD EL ssscscsicvsnaeaseenrniinvvccsvessiae 50
Laws, Kevin
Leach, Matthew.
Leben; Redasacnscnseamnminnenanes. 719
Le, Mah-Hy Wig sccisssesssscasscessesssesssreasvanssel 79
Lee, Tsuey-Ping oo. eeeeeeeeeeeeeseseeeseeeeeeeeeeee 80
Lee: Ze6 W OG csncimaconnanuannen: 79
LeP Gyre JaCQUeS sicssssesssscerscesensssesegseeasvearevesss 80
Legna, Carlos ....ceccecceseeseeseseseseseseseseseeeseee 81
Lelli, Sara
Lertpattarapong, Charlie «0.00.0... 0c 62
Li, AMSO0 Lo. eeeeceeeeceseeceseeeeseseeceseeeeseseeeeneeeeee 84
Li, Shyh-Jane wee ceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 120, 121
Liéhin, Stephan ssccsssssisssisssssessnrssreavieenssel 71
Lilly; Brak csscsscccvssssscssssssvevonsssvessvezencevsvevecesl 58
Limard, Keith ....ccceccccececeeseeseseeeeseeeeeeeeeeee 74
Lipson; Howard scscssssccacenencens 116
Litt, Minn ssccsscsscccvsesvncessssanevovzencevsvsvenssvsssreveed 49
Lizeo, Elaine ......c.cccecececceceseseeceseeeeseeeeeeeeeeee 81
HO YU-Tane comune 120
Lofdahl,: Corey’ scsssssssssssevsvevsvessseosvavssesevensseves 81
Loghmani, Ghsem Barid............ccceeseeeeeees 82
LOptZ, Luis wecwnamcanmannncsnnenay 82
Lovegrove, JOCEl yn sssssssivsscvsvessseosveviseonsesxsaves 52
Luna Reyes, LUIS ......eeeeeeeeteteeeeeeeees 82, 83
Lyhtis; Debiaecssnescsussernncsnnneey 84
Maatit, Kamb its asascssasnscssavnnvenrevied 84
Mabey, Nick.
Mabiti, Victor sascencrvanecancenunsanal 85
Macdoiiald, David wsccssessssscavecscanvvevess 35:
MacDonald, Roderick .0.........ccceceeseeeeeeteeeeee! 60
Magaatd, Lorenz, sesssscssseecsesesseesscesrsavszvannseaal 64
Magnuszewski, Pi0tr......ceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 98
Mak, Wai-ming.
136 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 2529, 2004 Oxford, England
Author Index continued
Malakis, Thomas
Mandal, Abhijit... eseseeeeeee
Marschké, Gétald ses icisassecssravensravssieise 86
Marsh, James.......ccceseeseeeseeeseeeseeeseeeeeeeeeeee 64
Martin; Patil sscssscascsnsavssnncassamcinaaxenss 67
Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio... 86
Matti, Daniel 0... eeeeeteeeeeeeeneenees 112
Maybaum, Peter 0... eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeteneeee 103
Mayo, Donitiassccssssscssssesssscavsessssssanssesvensvesvass 63
McDonnell, Geoff ..........c.cececeseeeeeeeeeee 66, 67
McKelvie, Douglas ............ 104, 117, 118, 129
McLé6d; RObGit ncacansaninnnmannT 78
Me Lutas) Alan scsscsserssescsvasecseorereisessereeare 74
Mediavilla, Margarita... eeeeeeeees 86
Mehinood ATE esccmeummunneanenes 120
Meneguzz0, Marco. sssessssossssecsssssssssveavessevenss 50
Menezes, RUI.......eeececceseseseeseseeeeeeeeeseeeeeeeee 54
Michnowski, Leslaw ..........::c:scscccseseseeseeeees 86
Miczka, Switberti ssccssssscssvvissessssvescoonsscssessnas 87
Migliavacca, Stefania... eee 53
Migtiel, Duis sscscaserancmnnucsnnenens 86
Miklashiovich, [nat sccerssescssvasecseocesnevesseveevare 87
Milling, Peter 0... eeeeseeeseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees 99
Mills: James scsersemmnnmmunncenann 56, 58
Milsteiti, BObbY:sccsessscsssssssssessasssssvsstvonssessies 69
Mohsen, Fatma
Moizér; Jonathan ssccccswwscncensnne: 88
Mojtahedzadeh, Mohammad... eee
36, 60, 82, 83, 88, 90
Molkenthin; Rene ssccccrsssscanansaceare 47
Mollona, Edoardo...........:cccccsesseseseeseeees 50, 88
Monk, David 104, 117, 118
22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Monte, Ferdinardo.
Montemaggiore, Giovan Battis
MGbrey ANEW tcanicnuamcmanacmamaae: 36
Mooy, Rutger ....cccccceseeeseseseseseeeseseeeeeeeeeee 89
Mortecton John sccanonsnencaneums 77, 124
Moscardini, Alfredo .........0..ccccccceseeeeee 89, 129
Moxnes, Erling... eee eeseeeseseseeeseeeeeee 89
Murphy, Dara .....eececeeseseeeseseseseseseeeeeeeseee 69
Nahlitider, Staffait iss cccsssassnsancnnarie AT
Nakamura, Kunio.......c.cccceceeecseeseeseseseeeeeees 70
Natchimuthu, Senthil... cece 130
Nils6it;: Deatt: srcessnenccnmsanmannnes 110
Norclifie AU an. scsssescenasacnansceresavesevesersecee 66
Nosouhi, MorteZa......c.cccceceeceeseeeeseeeeeeseeeeseee 93
Nujfiez Hernandez, Fernando...............:::006 52
Ohi, SePeHONG csscsessvescvsssavencavecssveverseccesvssvencess 92
Olaya, Camilo ....eeceeceeseeseeseseseseseeeeeeeeeee 90
Oliva; ROC vce 90
Olivera Fontes, ROS ........ceceeseeseseeeseeeeeee 47
Onori, Riccardo.....cccecececesceeeeeseteteeeeeee 37, 38
Osgood, Nathaniel........cccececeeseeseeeeeeeeee 90
Osipenko, Leeza.cicssicssssssscesvsscsessseriaarvsrsseeees 91
Otto, Peter
Ozevin, Mehmet Giinhan ..........0..ccscceeseeeseeeee 40
Patch, Mark wc scsssssscsssswsssssvsveovessvosies 39, 73, 127
.83, 84
Pareglio, Stefan sisesssesorssvisssssrsauenssseaiers 53
Park, Muiti-JO0t wsccsawesncnnnnvenrnenviel 92
Park, Sang-Hyun oo... ceceeeeeeseeeeeeeeeee 91,119
Parra Valencia, Jorge ......cceceeseeeseseeeeeeeseee 92
Patvizian,.J ashe cscccsessscsssvavenrevvel 93
Paucar-Caceres, Alberto .
July 25-29, 2004 Oxford, England 137
Author Index continued
Pavlov, Oleg
Pedercini, Matteo ..
Perdicoulis, Anastassios
Pérez Rios, JOSE.....cececeeeeeseseeeeseeeeeeeeeeseee 102
Pérez Salazar, Gloria... 46, 108
Peterson; Tarla.cnccmcansmanaansceanec 58
Petrides, Lazaro .......:.cccccceseseeeeseeeeseteeeeseeees 94
Phelan, Stevend........cecccececesseeseeseseeeeeeteeeeee 102
Pidd,, Michael csssscssussssasssvasssesssverveusossuessvees 124
Pietruszewski, Pawel..........:c:ccceeseseeeeeeeees 98
Pomonis, Nikolaos .........:.:::ccceseseeeeseees 33, 105
Powell, JOM ssscessssssseiseessssessecssvnasvvevaesvisees 94
Pruyty Erte sesccscssisescssnsssscvssnsassavseneesssvoveseseaas 95
Qu, Weishuang.......ceeceeesees sees eeeseeeeeees 49
Quaden, Rob....
Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan... eee 95
Radianti, Jaziar ee... cece ceeceeseeseeeeeeeeteeeeeeee 95
Radzicki, Michael ...........ceeeeeee 96, 124
Rahmandad, Hazhir.............cccccccesssseseeseeeeee 96
Raimondi, Francesco Vittorio... 96
Rainiotidiy TiCaessonnmmnnnceannwans 43
Rautenberg, Michael ..icscssssscessssessosssessvevs 122
Reichel, André ......ceceeceeeeseeeeseeeeeeeeeeeeeees 97
Rejée, Valtet secscasensscansvearcnens 75
Rich, EliOt sicssessssssssvessvosssessssevsavessevestvonssessses 36
Richardson, George...
Riédét, Peter weccecawmsnnesnmeeemans 76
RobiSOfi, JAC sscssictsavenssravensavnnine 51
Rockart, Scott.......:.cccccccececesseceseeseseeeeseteeeeeeee 97
Rodriguez-Ulloa, Ricardo ..........ceceeeees 97
ROUWEttE, BUEN icsssassravenscevsey 59, 98
Ruud, Morten ..
Rydzak, Felicjan
Ryzhenkov, Alexandet.......eccecseseeeeeseseee 99
Sadeghi, Ali REZ sscssssvisesssesssssissvessvesessvessveee 71
Sadeghi, Mohsen.......cccceseseeseeseeeeeeeeee 99
Salge, Markus sisssanssiannmnamnnan: 99
Saltét, ATMO wicncumsaanmannnanT 41
Sanders, Frank..........ccccecceeeeseseesesseseseseeeeeeee 100
Sanders, Peter........cccccccecseseeseseeeeeeseseteeeeeees 100
Sarriegui, Jose Maria «0.0.0... 36, 110
Sawicka, Agata ......ceceseeseeeeseeeseneneeeeees 63
Saysel, Alive 86, 89, 100
Schade; Burkhard ssscsnascaccnaccccnwasx 101
Schaffermicht,- Martin... ccsssssesrsccssevessssveveenens 100
Schieritz, Nadine ...........ccceceeeeeeeeeeteeeeeeee 101
Schild, HEINZ isssssrsssceranenenmsnnneas 101
Schittid Alex: scssssssssssssssvesscnsavsssscvoassnsesvesnees 126
Schneider, Carrie........cccceccceseseseeseseteeeeeeeees 83
Schndidér, Maik sicsesnswesvosvencewaen 101
Scholl, Hats s.ccscssiscsesewccsnvaveesereseseve 101, 102
Schwaninger, Markus «0.0... 102, 131
Schwarz; Rained sccscswesvrcnemuween 102
Seddigh Rad, Saaz ...ccccsscsssssssosesosesssososoees 99
Sendzimir, Jat...c..cceseeseeeeseeeseseeneeees 98
Senge, Petal ccm csnsemnmncenneie 103
Sergeyev, ANd tty ssissssvsssssssccsssssvesscassosesesenevss 89
Seville, Donald
Shafto; SylWid sessssssssscmonnnncesnsl 72
Sharp ANC secccssssccsvewveseesveavessevanevsssowersessnsves 76
Sherwood, Dennis ............:::ccceeeeeees 103, 130
Shimeall, Timothy... 36, 116
Shityaev, Vladimir ssccsssssssossscsssssiseevessssvasensd 44
Signorini, Alessandro..
138 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 2529, 2004 Oxford, England
Author Index continued
Singh, Rohita.
Slitabal AidiS) ss cssnccssnsamsanmnarseass 75
Smith, Gill
Soderquist, Chris... 54
Solomons; Leonitescaccucusssanancient 129
Sotaquira, Ricardo... 104
Stamboulis, Yeoryi0s .......cceeeeeeeeees 34, 105
Stanton, Jeffrey 0. eeseeseeeseeeeeeeeneees 36
Stave, Krystyna siscssssssssssssssacssescavevensses 57, 106
Stepanovich, Paul... eects 106
Sterman, JOHN .......cccecececeeeeceseeeeseeeeeeseseeeeee 62
Strohhecker, Jiirget..... eee 106
SHUbeH; JOOS sees wscnascerevnevcsvesrecaieeons 107
Stuntz, Lees... ecececccceseeeeeseeceteeeeeeeeeseeeeee 84
Sid4t BAS sensssscnsrnsamnncansmraat 107
SUetake TOW sees sscnarcereevvevevevesercesaconare 70
Suksawang, Orasa .......eceeeseeeeeeeseeeeeeeeeee 107
Svetissony Mats avcecucazencsccnnn 44, 108
SWatt, JUAN vsescesmeneneresereerevesevenersncesacveonare 94
Tamez, Cindy 0... ceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeneeeneteeeeee 108
Tah BurClscsuwascvmnnamnnncennnent 38
Tanaka, NobUneicsccesssssvssvasecsvovesseseesweveree 108
Tarkesh Esfahani, Hamed .......0....0::ceeeeees 93
Taylor, Kathryit iscsecsessscssssssssoseasnentsesscs 109
Taylot; Richatd ssissssisscosiscsssevasissevessvensvensses 48
Thomassin, Paul.
Thompson, Fiona ........cccceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeees 83, 84
Thin; Jom-Henirik:, .icsascccravensavsaee 109
Ticotsky, Alatew..cccceeeeseeeseeesseeseeeeeeeeeees 84
Tighor, Wattetscusacconumsnmannund 110
Topaloghi, Fuldent siisicsisssssssssssssssvsssassavsosvs 38
Torino, Francesco
22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
Torino, Luigi
Tortés, José: Mandl sessccosccunasnncans 110
Towler, Michaélsssassissssmananenaie 88
Trailer, Jeff... 110, 111
Ticék, Denis ansccuencsnmemaanaaen 111
TSENG, Va-t8 al sesssccsssvsassscavseevsnsssesssaevasecasenes 111
Tu, Chiang-Kuo oo. ee eee eeeeeeeeeeeeneeeees 121
Tu, Yi Ming wo. eeseeeeseeseeseeeenee 111, 115
Uchitie; Alara seccwanvnwanswmncnaas 108
Ulli-Beer, Silvia... cesses 112
Umar, [mana .......eceeeeeeeceteeeeeeeeeeeeeee 113, 130
Usabiaga Ibafiez, Carlos... eerie 52
Vaglio, Alessandro......ecesseseseseeteeneseteseees 53
van Daalen, Cornelia.........cccececeeceseeteeeeeeee 35
Wait Hooft, Paul wsscsncrvawecnsscnnnsns? 98
van: Oorschot, Kim yesscessssvesnssressseeraveevesen 34, 35
Vancronenburg, Geert... 113
Vandérmindén, Peter esyesncsawwasacs 131
VENNIKE JAC carceacszevesssesvsnareversssvesavavaceeeversisest 98
Viehweger, Bernd 0... cece 114
Widcattas Vezina vesosscnasrcnnscens 108
Vopstad, Klas sccssssssccssvessssassccesovoevecesssvenses 114
Voronin, Anatoly oo. ceeseeeseeeeeseeeeeseseeeeeee 49
WOX AACS ese cnccmnwenarnmananeesen' 44
VOYet JOM wssccsssecsssncsnsvessssesvscarsescsasveorasess 114
Wahba, Khaled..
Walker, Paul...
Wang, Wei Yangscisssssscsiessssssisesvssrvesessvaves 115
Warren, Kim .......ecceeeeteeeteeeee 124, 131, 132
Weavers BSE ss ccmneimnusenanne 36
Weil, Henty wsiscssscssscssvsssssesvscarsescsnsiveovasess 115
Wheat, David.
July 25-29, 2004 Oxford, England 139
Author Index continued
Whitney-Smith, Elin . 116
Wik, Johannes ccn conmenananaeen 116
Williams, Ddembe .............:cceceeeeees 66, 116
Winch, Graham ...........ccceeeeseeeeeeeeeeeteeeeee 117
Wokaun, Alexander .........:.cccccsccceseeseeseeseees 72
Wolstenholme, Eric.............:00 104, 117, 123
Wood, Brandon ........ccccececeeseceseeseseteeeeteeeeee 110
Wu, Yi-jung oo. eeeeeeeeeeeeneeees 83, 84
KU; Chan Sinine ssscssssssssssssssssesasscasevasvseavsveves 49
Xue, Wenbo o....eecceececeeceseeeeeseeeeseseeeeseeeeees 118
Yamaguchi, Kaoru ......cceeeeeeeeeseeeeeteeeeeee 119
Yasarcat; Hakéti-~ccssssanavanncccanee 119
Yeon Seung-Jun ssiscsosissscsssssecssvsveveveonve 91,119
Yepez, Carlos... 120
Yeviishenko; Sergey ssw 49
Young, SHOWING sssissssscssssorssecssvsavossees 120, 121
Yusuf, YjaZe.ceccecceeeseesseseseeseeseeseeseeseeneenees 121
WS, Nitta? srrsssmnmmucnesnrsces 121
Zagoniel, Aldo isissscsssssescvsvevccsssvsosceveses 36, 122
Zock, Alexander..........cccccccccesseseeseesseseeseenee 122
Zohar, Datiah seeovasvcscannmanenet 103
140 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25 — 29, 2004
Oxford, England
Addenda
Kewal Dhariwal
Kewal_dhariwal@ mba.athabascau.ca
Athabasca University
Supply Chain Collaboration Rsch Inst
1 University Drive
Athabasca Alberta T9$ 3A3 Canada
Peter Carr
peterca@ athabascau.ca
‘Athabasca University
01 Grandin Park Plaza
22 Sir Winston Churchill Ave
St Albert Alberta T8N 1B4 Canada
Hordur Haraldsson
hordur.haraldsson@ chemeng.Ith.se
Lund University
Department of Chemical Engineering
PO Box 124
22100 Lund Sweden
Harald U. Sverdrup
Lund University
Department of Chemical Engineering
PO Box 124
22100 Lund Sweden
Salim Belyazid
salim.belyazid@ chemeng.lth.se
Lund University
Department of Chemical Engineering
PO Box 124
22100 Lund Sweden
Kenneth M. Persson
SWECO VIAK
Gejersgatan 8
21618 Malmo.
Sweden
Johan Holmqvist
SWECO VIAK
Gejersgatan 8
21618 Malmo.
Sweden
The Supply Chain C ollaboration Online Research
Simulator
Supply chain collaboration is set to accelerate in future years. Evidence from
a survey conducted with funding from the Canadian Purchasing Research
Foundation is presented and it is argued that understanding of the
exploitation of this environment is in its infancy.
Recently Athabasca University commenced a research project on supply
chain collaboration. Funded and supported by the Canadian Foundation for
Innovation, the Alberta Provincial government, SAP and IBM, this project is
focused on developing an online model of a fully data integrated supply
chain. A simulation model is being used to help us learn how the business
community will best use this supply chain environment of the future.
Networked private communications between supply team members, data
visibility, push versus pull systems, post-simulation performance analysis,
group strategy formulation, strategy delivery and team discipline in
networked environment are all aspects of research under consideration.
A fully functional simulator of a data integrated supply chain environment
supported by a complete range of online collaboration tools is currently
being field tested and may be demonstrated at this symposium. It is available
to researchers online throughout the world to develop their understanding of
supply chain collaboration and networked resources management at
www.athabascau.ca/scm or www.sccori.com
The Tyranny of Small Steps - An Archetypical
Behaviour in Resource management
A new archetypical behaviour has been observed. The archetypical
behaviour, whereby an overarching decision is undermined by small step
changes on a finer resolution level is discovered to be very frequent. The
small steps must be smaller than the observation resolution of the
overarching system in order to be in-stoppable. The archetypical behaviour
is active in many long term political conflicts where a situation appears to be
slowly deteriorating over long time, apparently with no means to stop it. It is
also present in situations where several administrative levels are acting on
the same object, such as resource planning and permissions by local and
super-regional authorities. Examples are urban encroachment on
surrounding land or the slow diffusion by one population into a territory of
another.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
Addenda continued
J. Bradley Morrison
morrison@ mitedu
Brandeis University
100 Memorial Drive 8-8B
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
Dynamics of Learning by Doing Under
Constraints: Analysis of the Tipping Point
The central notion in learning curve theory is that accumulating experience
leads to improved performance, or “learning by doing.” The concept
occupies a central role in many strands of strategy and organization theory
and forms the basis for such ideas as the specialization of labor,
organizational learning, knowledge transfer, and core competences of the
firm. Traditional learning curve theory considers the productive activity of
interest, such as the manufacture of airframes, in isolation from other
demands for critical resource inputs, such as direct labor hours. In contrast,
many learning situations are characterized by a competition for the learner’s
time between a new skill to be learned and an old, proven means of
accomplishing tasks. The learner’s time is a limited resource. The learner
faces the challenge of allocating this resource to meet the demand for certain
output objectives while simultaneously trying to learn how to do things a
new and possibly better way.
The purpose of this paper is to extend learning curve theory by embedding
the learner in a context in which he or she must achieve certain output
objectives. Building on the basic notion that accumulating experience leads
to improved productivity, I formulate and analyze a two-loop system
dynamics model that incorporates a constraint to achieve a specified level of
output as well as the forgetting or deterioration of knowledge. I use
simulation analysis to demonstrate a mode of behavior in which learning
begins and then stalls and another mode in which learning dominates so that
the new skill becomes the preferred manner of doing. I characterize the
tipping point that distinguishes these two modes. The discussion highlights
key implications for managing implementation efforts and organizational
change.
22" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society July 25- 29,2004 Oxford, England
CC BY-NC-SA 4.0