System
Dynamics
Society
* To assess emission profile of brick manufacturing in
India at present
* To study future emission profile from brick
manufacturing based on technological improvements
q for 2050
ASSUMPTIONS
INTRODUCTION ) CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM ) EMISSION PROFILE FROM 2015 TILL 2050 )
¢ Paris Agreement to curb climate change serous co,
* India’s commitment — 30-35% reduction in GDP ra “ =
intensity by 2030 compared to 2005 levels . 260} |_4 sa
* Opportunities for India: cpp /enuatio ao |
¢ Energy, renewables Need ~ \ an |
° Forestation Construction ~—————Net Growth Rate Enaiason E nd of pie ay |
¢ Industrial Energy Efficiency Improvements + \ ‘so
* Industrial efforts require specific attention for ok - vounn! Fuel Choice Local Aina sin
emission reductions we, | © eee val ie
BRICK INDUSTRY Brick Production + oe 2010 7016 7020 2008 7050 7008 2040 2048 7080 2088 ral
+ Emissions from burning of coal for cooking brick Se patatn a. a ase vewe! “GEleeeea ae
cake at 1100 degree centigrade temperature * ‘ ‘ Figure 3: (@) Emission estimate of CO, from 2015 till 2050 for $1 and $2 (b) Emission estimates for PM, ,
¢ Second highest coal use in the country at 24 MT [1] ‘d Climate Change 4) Teck SO,, CO, NO, NMVOC and NOX for $1 and S2 from 2015 to 2050
sons Ti tation + adoption
* Emissions of greenhouse gases (CO, CH,) and local “ a * CO, and PM,, emissions show similar trend of emissions with reductions achievements
air pollutants (S02, NOx, NMVOC, CO, and PM) 5) neciine throughout the study period
* Total emissions of 1.1 MT CO2 in 2010 [2] . Vehicks \:_ Increase in emissions of SO,, CO, NO, NMVOC and NOx is observed under S2
\_Cement Blocks — environmentally friendly altermative Figure 1: Causal Loop Diagram for Brick Industry with Brick Demand, Brick ~
5 % = ‘ Supply, Air pollution loop and Climate Change loop subsections CONCLUSION
BJ ECTIVE
y \ * Non-fired bricks lead to emission reduction of CO, and PM,; with an increase in emissions of
METHODOLOGY +)
¢ Integration of top-down and bottom-up approach to
overcome limitations of both the approaches
individually such as
* Complex data requirements
+ Integration of levels of information from
economic equilibrium to technological details
* System Dynamics as a tool to develop a single model
with hybrid approach
SUBLOOPS
* Brick Demand: Population, GDP and construction
demand
¢ Brick Supply: Production growth rate, demand and
exports
¢ Air Pollution: Local Pollution Control
Standards, End of Pipe (EoP) measure
* Climate Change: Policy implementation, mitigation
strategies adoption
Board
Ne
Production rate: 6.6% (from 2015 to 2030), a sharp decrease after
2030 dependent on the exports
Fuel used throughout the scenario: Coal along with biofuels
Pollutants: CO,, PM,;, CO, SO,, N,0, NOx, NMVOC
Energy requirements and emission factors from [3]
Demand
+ Production! a
Demand (Billion Bricks)
#388
N
a
~
\,
“ea
a
\.
888
‘
\
2015 ©2020 «2025 «203020352040 20452050
s1 Year 52
100 100
0
Cy
«
2 20
° °
2000 ©2010-2020» 203020402080 2060 2000 201020202030» 2040 2080
Year
Year
GEE Clamps MBTK MM Zig-zag firing (Others [EEN Non-fired
2060
Figure 2: (a) Demand and Production interaction of brick industry
(b) & (c) Technology fraction assumptions for S1 and S2 respectively
SO,, CO, N,0, NMVOC and NOx
* Future reductions of greenhouse gases can be achieved by increasing use of advanced brick
production technologies
* Prioritization of emissions is required for to determine future of brick manufacturing
* Potential GHG mitigation options can be tapped easily with one sector
* Technology shifts should be considered as a part of mitigation strategy development
FUTURE RESEARCH >
¢ Further research is required to determine the balance of GHG and air pollution mitigation from
the brick manufacturing industry
¢ A further cost analysis and sophistication in the model may lead to precise prediction of the
e future course of mitigation
REFERENCES )
[1] Heierli, U., & Maithel, S. (2015). Brick By Brick : The Herculean Task of Cleaning Up the
Asian.Production, (FEBRUARY 2008) ; .
[2] Ministry of Environment Forest and Climate Change Government of India. (2015b). India First
Biennial Update Report to the United nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
http://doi.org/10.1017/CB09781107415324.004
Venkataraman, C., Brauer, M., Tibrewal, K., Sadavarte, P., Ma, Q., Cohen, A., ... Wang, S.
(2017). Source influence on emission pathways and ambient PM2.5 pollution over India (2015
\__ 2050). Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, (December). http://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2017-1114
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS >
¢ Department of Science and Technology for supporting IITB Centre of Excellence in Climate
Studies (11DST078) and IRCC Mid stage financial support for TA P students
International funding at IIT Bombay
N°
