1994 INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE
A System Dynamics Model to Evaluate Policies on Institutional
Decentralization and Community Participation
Isaac Dyner and Antonio Quintero
Universidad Nacional De Colombia
A. A 1027, Medellin, Colombia
Abstract
The new Colombian constitution makes heavy emphasis on issues related to decentralization and
ipation. It intends to incorp in G the iate social actors to
accomplish a more effective administration.
In this sense, definitions have to be made in relation to regional responsibilities in the areas of Health,
Education, Housing, Public Services and Employment, in order to obtain the appropriate
transferences of resources from the central Government to the communities. Laws on these issues are
now being discussed in Congress.
Preliminary results show how System Dynamics proves to be an appropriate methodology to evaluate
needed, i icipation and institutional per
The model developed may be used as a training tool to help community leaders to understand the
complexities involved in the decentralization process. The model incorporates behavioral patterns
and at the same time provides {aystem Pp and effe (Ci
avid List
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1994 INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE
A System Dynamics Model to Evaluate Policies on Institutuion
Decentralisation and Community Participation
1. INTRODUCTION
The analysis of the ci ing the of d ization and participation in
Colombia, show communities living under deep problematic social, political, and economical
conditions.
The Keynesian state modei, based on high public expenditure specially devoted to productive
and social: i aims to develop national markets, thus promoting economic
productivity and the general employment level. In Colombia, where the model has been applied with
some variants, it reached a voluminous fiscal deficit caused by a heavy central bureaucracy (Blanquer,
1991).
This concept of the "welfare state" then turned into a clientelist model of management, in which
resources were handled through the influence of the political class, with the resulting corruption
bli in the ini ion (Vi 1992).
2. PROBLEM DEFINITION
A democratic system where individuals elected as their representatives. those who can offer them jobs
in the public sector or other favors, was then established.
This, in a context of weak balance where the state pi d for the very particular interests
and requirements of political groups, lecting the ities needs, the political
representation became blurred. This, in turn, undermined both the credibility of and the support for
the political class and the institutions.
All this in a country where planning had not been granted a prominent role, only prevailing a
short-term perspective within an i made up by entities that, in a centralized
manner, autonomously handle one aspect of the public function, and produces programs and
information systems hardly compatible with each other, conforming finally a sectorial planning style
(Casabuenas, 1991).
This planning approach prevented the benefit of the reciprocal influences that took place among the
social services rendered by the state. Failing to move with the whole range of causalities in mind, the
administration could not act on a given sector, activating and multiplying its effects on others.
In the case of urban planning, besides this sectorial conception, the city was seen merely as a physical
space, where project i ion of minor imp was more relevant than the generation of
social p and the approach was one of ‘ic nature. When the capacity of the planning
offices | was d by the dynamics of the ities, all they could do was to
legalize the result, contributing thus: to the view and profile of cities, districts and quarters lacking the
minimal welfare requirements.
As a resp to this deterioration process, the ities d ded belligerently a more active
participation in government to resolve the crisis (Santana, 1991).
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1994 INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE
Since the mid-eighties, the state has promoted both the state reform and the generation of democratic
conditions processes in order to provide wider political options to the citizens. These reforms began
by returning the political legitimacy to the local authorities through the popular election of majors, and
by i the level of the icipalities, as pared to power sharing in the larger
Citizens participati were ped. The Local Administration Boards (which
remained as advisor bodies), the civic organizations (that can contract or pact services with the
municipality), and the users access to the boards of the public services companies and other public
bodies (Law 77, 1987).
Consi ly with a d ization process is the assi of the i ducation, health, public
works, water, waste disposal, urban development, and others to the municipalities. This move raised
heavily the local expenditure and forced a financial decentralization, increasing transfers to the
municipalities and strengthening their own income. At present, the result is a financial imbalance since
the municipal expenditure on the transferred responsibilities is larger than the income. This has
many icipali from ing their new bilities as ished by the law
(Blanguer, 1991).
Although the municipalities are not well prepared yet to take on their new responsibilities, the popular
elections of majors, given their close relation and commitment to the communities through their
management proposals, have been met with success, according, of course, to each particular case
(Mendoza, 1987).
3. MODEL STRUCTURE
All these proposals and applications create multiple exp i In view of that, a simulation model
was developed to serve as a support instrument for ion the of and
processes. Other papers have also reported research in these general research area (Brooke, 1992; Diaz
& Dyner, 1993; Dyner & Diaz, 1992; Jacobsen & House, 1992).
Figure 1 shows the general causal diagram of the most representative variables involved in the system.
It intends to help at different levels.
First, it is expected to represent an account of the material requirements of the community, by
describing the appropriate behavioral interrelationships in terms of needs (a methodological possibility
of the systems approach).
The interrelationships that occur among the analyzed services are exposed to the community (by their
leaders), helping them to understand the integral nature of their problems, both temporally and
spatially, so that resources are assigned to and participative efforts concentrated on aspects that will
have greater multiplying effects in social terms. This will create a rationality for the managing of
and of the i zB
For this, the model receives information from the same community and from the municipal
government, handling hard variables in the sense that they evaluate concrete aspects of the reality, such
as school enrollment, agricultural employment, hospital beds or number of medical consultations,
among others.
Second, the model may be used to evaluate the very important political and social processes sponsored,
and to structure policies on projects implementation. Here, the model tries to evaluate in each
municipality the particular features that have to do with political behavior vis a vis the management.
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1994 INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE
RESOURCES
+
PROJECTS
( FORMULATION
COMMUNITY
PARTICIPATION
PROJECTS
: +
a EXECUTION GC)
INFORMATION
O DECENTRALIZATION
RESISTANCE .
TO PROJECTS
CHANGE EXHAUSTION
—— — EEE wae
SUCCESS
FIGURE 1. General causal diagram
With the information handled the model seeks to infer the effectiveness of the community
organizations, their efficiency, their insertion in the public management structure, and the degree of
support they enjoy.
Additionally, the model has been design as an instrument to interact with the community and the
administration in the area of management, as long as there are agreed objectives on which the general
efforts could concentrate, lending its support both to project planning and to recognition of the future
impacts. These aspects are handled through soft variables, to which people in the communities
ing to their kn ige and
And last, the model aims to promote the creation of homogeneous information systems for the regions,
based on the municipal units. Since the regions concentrate a greater number of economic, cultural,
and social conditions, their planning offices would then have means to permanently capture updated
ion that help the 1 policy making, and convene experts groups to advise and help
the communities in their technical difficulties. This would imply the setting up of electronic mail
networks to smooth the communication flow and facilitate the task of the planning offices in the
municipalities, so that the scarce personnel they have, become more catalysts and makers of the
transformation p of the icipality, that exp officers of what the future will present.
4, SIMULATION RESULTS
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1994 INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE
The model is being used as part of the planning process in the municipality of Don Matias in the
Province of Antioquia, Colombia. Below are described some of the initial results.
In figure 2 is observed the behavior of the variables related to employment, under a ‘relatively
optimistic scenario. Public empl and Ow lly, while
employment in services grows until reaching a maximum in the year 13, then to > decrease.
In figure 3 are shown the variables related to education services. The quotas for secondary official
schools grow in an exponential manner, displacing after 8 years of participation policies the private
schools services. Toward the end of the period the private supply is stabilized.
Figure 4 illustrates health services. If a high degree of morbidity occurs, the attention capacity is
reduced until the community reacts and achieves to reverse this trend, increasing the supply.
0 2 4 6 6B 1 12) «14~C=C«GCB
“+ Services employment + Agriculturel employ — Public employment,
FIGURE 2. Employment behavior
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1994 INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE
FIGURE 3. Education services
eal
i
P we?
i a
5 ae
eg
0 rs 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
© Hann capmcty “+ Community partic
FIGURE 4. Health services
5. CONCLUSIONS
— The researchers of the social areas, prejudiced to itative modelling ap hes, have as is
illustrated in this investigation, an instrument, that by the use of soft variables provides useful results
to confront the analysis of decentralization and participation policies.
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1994 INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS CONFERENCE
a application of the model outlines to the communities, the development of an integral
ding of the bl by which the actions to undertake are also of general
character.
— The modelling task in this investigation area, specifies greater efforts, in order to develop a
thodology whose appli can be to regional planning in the country.
6. REFERENCES
Blanquer J.M. 1991. D lizacion en Colombia: Estudios y propuestas. Instituto Frances de
EstudiosAndinos. Universidad i de Colombia, Bogota, Colombia.
Brooke R. 1992. The relationship between central and local government in the United Kingdom, with
to fiscal relationships. Seminar: Comp ias y recursos. DNP, Bogota, Colombia.
Casab G. 1991. Plani ion o gestion a prop del local. D lizacion y
estado moderno. FESCOL, FAUSO, Colombia.
Diaz F.J. and I. Dyner. 1992. A model for ization and institutional i
System Dynamics Conference. Holland.
Dyner I and F.J. Diaz. 1993. Estimation, validation and stochasticity in a model of organizational
strategy. System Dynamics Conference. Mexico.
Jacobsen Ch. and R.J. House. 1992. The Dy ics of i ic leadership in organization. System
Dynamics Conference. Holland.
Law 77. 1987. National congress of Colombia.
Mendoza S. 1987. La funcion publica y la descentralizacion: Acciones del estado para una epoca de
crisis. Funcion publica y descentralizacion. CIDER, DNP, DASC. Bogota, Colombia.
Santana P. 1991. Los movimientos sociales en Colombia. Foro nacional por Colombia. Bogota,
Colombia.
Velasquez F. 1991. Democracia v Clientelismo, hacia un nuevo modelo de gestion municipal. Viejos
escenarios, nuevos actores. Ed. Ciudad, Quito, Ecuador.
Social and Public Policy, page 65
