The Spanish Research and Development System:
a model for the equilibrium conditions
between the offer and the demand of new researchers
Margarita Vazquez
Miguel A. Quintanilla
Bruno Maltras
EPOC Group
University of Salamanca, Fac. of Philosophy,
Paseo de Canalejas 169, 37008 Salamanca
Tel:34-23-265298, Fax:34-23-210903
SPAIN
ABSTRACT
The System Dynamics model which we are presenting here
has been prepared with the purpose of examining the
relations between the number of existing grant-holders in
Spain and the number of researchers in active service in the
sectors of Higher Education, Business and Public Research -
Organisms. The aim is to examine these variables in order to
analyse the conditions of balance between the offer of
potnential researchers trained while holding grants and the
demand for new researchers on the part of the science and
technology system in Spain.
1. INTRODUCTION
In this paper we present the most relevant conclusions
from the.system dynamics model that we have built up in
order to study the future needs of new researchers in
Spanish Research and Development system. This SD model is an
outcome of the EPOC project (Quintanilla et al. (1992)), a
general study of the Spanish science and technology system
and its recent evolution, carried out during 1991 in the
University of Salamanca, and finnanced by the Spanish
Government. In the "Science and Technology" system we
include the set of activities and institutions with social
relevance for the scientific research and for the
technological development (Quintanilla (1988)). This
definition of the scope excludes other agents and factors of
our analysis, like the cultural and estrictly economics
ones.
One of the areas in wich public planning is possible and
necessary is the training of new researchers. To study the
medium-term future needs of new researchers, we found that
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the system dinamics methodology provides the proper frame,
since it is necessary to model the behaviour of a system
with a great number of interdependencies. For the Spanish
case, we have considered separately the recent past
evolution of three types of institutions: Business, Higher
Education and Public Research organisms. These three
subsystems have been integrated to determine the behaviour
of the whole system, which imposes its own limits on the
three.
2. THE SPANISH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY SYSTEM
The two main objectives of the EPOC report were (a) to
undertake an analysis of the Science and Technology System
in Spain and its recent evolution and (b) to evaluate the
incidence of the R&D policy of the Spaish government on the
structure and evolution of the Science and Technology
Systen.
The self-imposed limits of the EPOC report derived from
these objectives. In the first place we were concerned
ourselves strictly with the Science and Technology system.
Naturally, a country’s system of innovation does not only
depend on scientific research. This limitation is coherent
with the second aim of our study: the evaluation of the R&D
policy of the Spanish government during the’ past three
years. It is important to point out that we were referring
to the policy carried out through the National Plan of
Scientific and Technological Research, directed toward the
promotion of national capacity in the field of scientific
research and technological development. The scientific and
technological policy of a country does not have to be
limited to the promotion of research. Indeed, in the Spanish
case there are other aspects of government policy which have
a very direct influence on the development of science and
technology. But we have focused our attention in the
National Plan because it deals with a collection of
political actions whose aims and instruments have been
defined beforehand and about which sufficient basic
information is available. On the other hand, we hope that
our analysis of the first three years of operation of the
National Plan (1988-1990) can contribute elements of good
sense for its revision in the future.
In our study we have observed that the human resources
of the Spanisch Science and Technology system, like
financial resources, have grown during the last few years at
a high rate (the highest of the EEC). In spite of this
growth, Spain's effort in human resources dedicated to R&D
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is still very low in comparison to the EEC countries; in
1988, the number of researchers in Spain represents
aproximately 7% of the EEC total and signifies 2.1 per 1000
of the working population, against a community average of
approximately 3.8. Nevertheless, the relation between
financial effort and effort in human resources is coherent
with the general level of development of the Spanish Science
and technology system. Consequently, the measures which are
adopted to cause the general growth of the System should
attend to both factors, financial resources and human
resources, with the same intensity.
The Spanish university is limited by the excesive weight
which academic specialities of a humanistic or professional
character have in it compared to technological ones, and to
a lesser extent scientific ones. Although there are signs
that this situation is evolving, the change is slow and, ‘to
strecgthen the training of researchers special, and to a
certain extent vigorous, measures are required. These
conclusion endorse the importance of the aims stablished by
the National Plan: the training of researchers.
By researchers in-.training we mean those university
graduates who are following up regular post-graduate courses
and are preparing their doctoral theses at universities in
Spain and abroad. Knowing the number of researchers in
training and their distribution according to scientific
specialities is important for us to be able to evaluate the
growth potential of the Science and Technology system.
Furthemore, given the importance that the grant system has
at this level of education, the analysis of these data is
also relevant for taking decisions with regard to the funds
which should be earmarked for grants for the training of
researchers ,depending on the objectives of the anticipated
growth rate, etc. We should consider the adaptation of the
public effort in the training of researchers to the needs of '
the growth of the Spanish Science and Technology system. In
order to analyze this question we have done a System
Dynamics model.
3. THE RESEARCHERS/GRANT-HOLDERS MODEL
To prepare this model we have used System Dynamics and,
for its implementation in a computer, we used the
Professional Dynamo.
In the construction of our model we have guided ourselves
by the following considerations:
(1) The training of researchers in Spain is basically
carried out through the awarding of grants to young
people who have already obtained a degree and who
are preparing for their doctorate or who merely wish
to broaden their knowledge in Spain or abroad. The
overwhelming majority of these grants are financed
with public funds from the various administrations.
An important part of these grants comes from the
Interministerial Commission for Science and
Technology or from the Ministry of Education and
Science in accordance with the priorities of the
National Plan.
(2) Although not all the new researchers that become
part of the science and technology system have
previously been grant-holders, the grant system is
the procedure that the Administration has at its
disposal to promote the quality of the training of
new researchers and to give direction to the offer
of potential researchers in coherence with’ the top
priority policies of the National Plan. Therefore,
to start with, it would appear to be desirable to
achieve a level of offer of former grant-holders
that would be sufficient to cover a significative
percentage of the needs of the incorporation of new
researchers into the science and technology system.
(3) Grant-holders require a certain degree of attention
and dedication on the part of active. researchers.
Furthemore, the incorporation of new researchers
into the system must be done at an appropiate pace
in order to guarantee the efficient integration into
research teams. Therefore, there are certain
objective limits, both for the number of researchers
being trained (active grant-holders) that the system
can support, and for the number of new researchers
that the system can incorporate.
These considerations justify some of the hypotheses which
we have included in the model.
4. VARIABLES AND BASIC HYPOTHESES
The level variables are the number of grant~holders and
the number of researchers according to performance sectors
(Higher Education, Business and OPI). The fundamental
hypothesis refer to the growth rate of these variables, and
to the percentage of new former grant-holder researchers
that are incorporated into the system.
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Data on grant-holders and researchers for the years 1981-
1991 have been introduced as exogenous variables, based on
Spanish national statistics (INE (1988)). The model starts
from 1981 and the various simulations go as far as the year
2020.
From 1991 onward, the model calculates the annual
evolution of these variables, applying a variable growth
rate which is obtained from the following formula:
AV, ._-=KV,(1-V,/¥,)
where V is the variable, t-t°is the time interval of one
year, V, is the masimum value taht the variable V can reach
and K is a constant that differs for each V variable.
The value of K has been calculated in such a way that the
growth rate for 1990-1991 coincides with the average annual
accumulated growth rate for the period 1981-1990. This rate
is of 4.08% for the Higher Education sector, 12.14% for the
Business sector and 10.57% for the Public Research
Organisms. For grant-holders from the National Plan, the
effective rate was calculated only with data from 1987-1990,
and. turned out to be 19.89%. For the total number of grant-—
holders from the period 1981-1990, the average annual growth
rate was of 19.59%.
It was established a limit, V,, for the increase in the
number of researchers. It was at 108.000 researchers in full
time equivalent, which means that for Spain (taking as
constant the country’s population of 40 million inhabitants)
there were 2.7 full time equivalent researchers per 1000
inhabitants, a figure which is equivalent to that of the
West Germany in 1987, according to data from the OCDE (OCDE
(1990)). In order to calculate the growth rate of the number
of grant-holders, the limit was established at 25% of the
total number of existing researchers each year. This means
that each year there can be no more than one active grant-
holder for every four active researchers. Furthermore, it is
assumed that the average period of time than one actually
has a grant is of 2.9 years.
Based on data thus obtained, the demand for new
researchers is calculated, adding a percentage of the number
of researchers from the previous year, in order to meet the
number of researches which would be necessary to fill the
natural vacancies produced each year. These leaving rates
have been calculated by a secondary SD model that simulates
the evolution of the age distribution of the population of
researchers in the Higher Education (from the data included
in Consejo de Universidades (1991)). In the main model these
data have been introduced as an exogenous variable. The
percentage goes from a 0.7% in 1991 to a 2.08% in 2020. For
the Business sector and Public Research Organisms, it has
been introduced the average percentage of the University.
This is a 1.6%.
In order to calculate the deficit or surplus of former
grant-holders, we have done various simulations, varying the
percentage of new former grant-holder researchers that are
incorporated into each sector each year. In all cases we
have assumed that this percentage is identical for the
Higher Education sector and the Public Research Organisms.
For the simulations with data on grant-holders from the
National Plan we have assumed that the percentage
corresponding to the business sector is equal to 3/5 ‘of the
percentage corresponding to either of the other two sectors.
For the simulation with data on the total number of grant-—
holders, the relation is of 2/5. There are no reliable facts
to justify these options, but there are reasons to believe:
1) that the percentage of former grant-holders among new
researchers in business sector is inferior to that of the
public or universitary sectors; 2) that in the case of the
National Plan grant-holders this percentage must be somewhat
higher than normal, if we keep in mind that the training of
the National Plan grant-holders is strongly directed towards
areas that are considered top priority for the productive
systen.
With these data we have done different simulations in
order to show in what conditions situations of balance,
deficit or surplus of former grant-holders are produced.
5. RESULTS OF THE SIMULATIONS
To begin, we will present the results of the simulations
done with the original model. All of them share the same
pattern of evolution in the number of researchers (graphics
1 and 2). The number of researchers in 1990 would double in
the year 2003 and in the year 2050 it would reach 104000
full time equivalent researchers. The maximum anticipated
for the model is 108000.
With data on the total number of grant-holders, we obtain
the following significative results (graphic 3). Based on
the hypothesis that 50% of the new researchers that are
incorporated into the system are former grant-holders, and
20% in the case of business sector (To abreviate we will
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call this the 50-20 hypothesis), there doesn’t exist a
deficit of former grant holders after 1983. Based on the 40-
32 hypothesis, there exists a deficit until 1993. Only on
the hypothesis 100-100 there exists a constant deficit of
former grant-holders, the maximum of which is reached in
1994. The deficit then continues to decrease until the year
2004 in which there is a surplus of 1169 former grant
holders.
In conclusion, with the data from the model, we can
assume that the grant system provides enough new researchers
to progressively cover from 50 to 80% of the demand (from 20
to 32% in the case of business sector), aproximately up to
the year 1993. If we think about the number of grant-holders
that is necessary to cover the 100% of the number of new
researchers, we see that we could reach it in the year 2004.
Lastly, we have done another group of simulations with
the original model for National Plan grant-holders (graphic
4). In this case, based on the 100-100 hypothesis, a maximum
deficit of former grant-holders is reached in the year 1999
and a superplus is reached only as of the year 2010. Based
on the 80-48 hypothesis, there continues to be a deficit of
former grant-holders until the year 2002. Finally, only with
the 50-30 hypothesis is a continuous surplus of National
Plan grnat-holders achieved from 1994 onward.
Consequently, according to our model, the growth rate of
the number of National Plan grant-holders would make it
possible to satisfy, from 1994 to 2002, between 50% and 80%
of the demand for new researchers (between 30 and 48% in the
case of business sector). From that point on, coverage of
the demand could extend progressively until it reached 100%
in the year 2010.
6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
The EPOC model is a theoretical aproximation to the
analysis of balance between the offer of former grant-
holders and the demand for new researchers. We have
extrapolated the data from the last ten years (1981-1991)
and we have anticipated a growth rhythm lessened by to the
proximity of a limit (following a logistic growth) that, in
the case of researchers, is of 2.7 full-time equivalent
researchers per 1000 inhabitants and, in the case of grant-
holders, of one grant-holder for every four active
researchers.
With these assumptions the model allows us to conclude
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that the anticipated growth rate of grant-holders manages to
cover nearly 80% of the present demand for researchers on
the part of Higher Education and Public Research Organisms
and 32% of the demand in business sector. This coverage rate
will increase steadly until it reaches 100% in the year
2004.
As for National Plan grant-holders, we have assumed that
the demand on the part of business sector will be somewhat
greater. At present, these grant holders could cover less
than the 30% of the demand in business sector and the 50% of
the Higher Education and Public Research Organisms. With the
growth rhythm anticipated for the model, in the year 2010
would reach the quota of 100%.
7- GRAPHICS
GRAPHIC 1, TOTAL RESEARCH SCIENTISTS.
AND ENGINEERS (RSE)
198 1990 2nd 220
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GRAPHIC 2. EVOLUTION OF RSE NUMBER
BY SECTORS
aa
60 =
50 ofp
_
we
Pa
gi |
es
we
20
10
°
1981 1990 2000 2010 2020
PUBLIC RES. ORG. —— HIGHER EDUCATION ~-~- BUSNESS SECTOR |
GRAPHICS 3. LEAVING GRANT HOLDERS AND
OFFER DEMAND BALANCE OF FORMER G.H.
80
70
60
h
|
o4
=10 = Po fo
1981 1990 2000
LEAVING G. HOLDERS —— FORMER G.H. BALANCE ]
GRAPHIC 4. NATIONAL PLAN LEAVING GRANT
HOLDERS AND OFFER DEMAND BALANCE
1
ay
FORMER GRANT HOLDERS
(Miles)
a Prnssiciiiins aes
i)
1981
1990 2000 2010
[FE EEAVING GOLDERS“ — FORMER GH. BALANCE ]
REFERENCES:
Consejo de Universidades. 1991. exo _docum del P:
del Consejo de Universidades. Madrid, Secretaria
General del Consejo de Universidades.
INE. 1988. Estadistica sobre las actividades en
investigaci6én cientifica y desarrollo tecnoldgico.
Madrid, Instituto Nacional de Estadistica.
OCDE. 1990. Main Science and Technology Indicators
OCDE.
ience tol chnolos ndicators. Paris,
Quintanilla, M.A. 1988. Tecnologia. Un enfoque filoséfico.
Madrid, Fundesco.
Quintanilla, M.A. et
al. 1992. Arbor, Jan.-Feb (Special
number on EPOC issues). Madrid, CSIC.
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