a
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ISINAPSYS
[ Organizacién que Aprende [
Alcohol Learning Lab.
Published for:
The 32nd International Conference of the System Dynamics
Society, Delft, Netherlands
July 20 - July 24, 2014
Good Governance in a Complex World
AUTHORS
Pedro Dagoberto Almaguer Prado pedrodago@ gmail.com Author
Beatriz Eugenia Navarro Vazquez bety.5505@ gmail.com Collaborator
Ruth Raquel Almaguer Navarro ruth_ran@ hotmail.com Design
Ramiro Luis Almaguer Navarro rmalmaguer@ gmail.com Modeling
Pedro Dagoberto Almaguer Navarro pan.dago82@ gmail.com Collaborator
March 12, 2014
OBJECTIVE:
During this activity, the students will develop a model that helps them to understand the
speed at which rises or lowers the alochol level in the blood of a person, the time that it takes
to recover for driving a car, the way the weight affects during it lasts, the different impact in
the gender (male or female), the type of drink, the tolerance level, and the paticipation in
consecutive sprees a person could have.
The students will also understand what happens with the absorption of the alcohol in the
stomach and thru there to the rest of the body through the bloodstream before being
eliminated for the liver and the kidneys. They'll discover the cause-effect cycles that underlay
the problem and, how they become a part of the solution.
Keywords - Learning Labs, Social Science, Biology, Alcohol, Simulation, Model.
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
Contents
OBJECTIVE: 0
INTRODUCTION 3
BUILDING THE MODEL. 4
Alcohol’s Basic Model. 4
Exponential ideal model for the alcohol’s absorption and elimination. ..........ssceeeseeeeeeeeeees 5
Corrected Model with Michaelis-Menton equation. 7
Integrating the logic to the first binge. 9
Logic to manage the second binge 9
Integrating the new Abosrption Rate of the stomach to the Model...
BAC calculation (gr/dl). a2
View logic to calculate the Elimination Rate. 13
BAC Model Complete. 14
Alcohol Learning Lab 15:
Develop of new cases of study. 24
Conclusions 25
Apendix “A” BAC Model documentation. 26
Bibliography 28
Author and collaborators data: 29
Tabla de ilustraciones
Illustration 1: Alcohol’s Basic Model. 4
Illustration 2: Exponential ideal model of alcohol’s absorption and eliminatio!
Illustration 3: Alcohol’s Ideal exponential process of absorption and elimination. ............e00 5
Illustration 4: Michaelis-Menton equation integrated in the model........
Illustration 5: Comparative graphical results of the alcohol in the body (1) vs. (2) the ideal....... 7
Illustration 6: Michaelis-Menton Model (1) vs, Exponential Ideal Model (2) .........s:csseseeeeeeeeeeee 8
Illustration 8: (1) Alcohol in the stomach, (2) Alcohol amount in the body, (3) BAC x 100 Real... 8
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Alcohol learning la
Illustration 9: BAC Model, first binge 9
Illustration 10:
Illustration 11:
Illustration 12:
Illustration 13:
Illustration 14:
Illustration 15:
Illustration 16:
Illustration 17:
Illustration 18:
Illustration 19:
Illustration 20:
Illustration 21:
Illustration 23:
Illustration 24:
Illustration 26:
Illustration 27:
Illustration 28:
Illustration 29:
Illustration 30:
Illustration 31:
Illustration 32:
Illustration 33:
Illustration 34:
: Model with the logic of the second binge. 9
Curve to match a full stomach with the Food effect in the stomach. ..............+. 10
New logic of the calculation for the Absorption Rate of the stomach...............11
Relationship between the tolerance level of alchol vs effect in Vax. (see 15). 12
Alcohol concentration in the blood. 12
New logic for the Elimination Rate. 13
Reference values in the world for BAC. 13
BAC Model Complete including its auxiliary variables. ....
Control Center with the reference values for BAC...........
Learning Lab for BAC. 15
History of alchol and graphical results. 16
Sensitivity analysis for individuals with the stomach empty or full of food.......16
Illustration 22: Compare Beer vs. Champagne 18
Different type of drink, Beer (1) vs. Champagne (2)....
Comparing champagne vs. wine 19
Illustration 25: Comparing Champagne (1) vs. Wine (2) 19
Compare men of different weights. 20
Compare different weights of men (1) 45.5 Kg, (2) 70 y (3) 90.7 Kg... sees 20
Compare a man and a woman. val
Compare both of them 70 KG (1) Woman, (2) Man
Comparing the tolerance Level 22
Tolerance level (1) Moderate low, (2) Alcoholic. 22
What’s the impact of a second spree. 23
Party 1+ Party 2 both together. 23
(1) only party 1, (2) both parties together. 24
llustracion 35: To develop other sensitivity analysis not covered until NOW... 24
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Alcohol learning la
TRODUCTION
Alcohol kills five times more people than cocaine, heroin, marijuana and all the other illegal
drugs together. Given the growth of current consumption between our youth and societies,
there are misconceptions about the level of alcohol that results from specific patterns of
consumption, due to the lack of information. To understand what’s happening with the speed
at wich the levels of alcohol rises or lowers in the bloodstream of a person, it may help to take
better decisions, particulary in relation to drive a car. Driving a car under alcohol influence is
responsible for more than 40% to 55% of accidents in the USA. It’s been shown that alcohol is
a decisive factor in the 50% of homicides and the 30% of suicides each year.
The use and abuse of alcohol has received an increasing interest in recent decades. The alcohol
is an inhibitory drug that reduces the judgment ability even in small doses. Next, a list of some
facts related to the alcohol.
1. A beer mug of 12 ounces, a wine glass of 4 ounces, or one ounce of a liquor shot,
contains the same amount of pure alcohol — about a half ounce.
2. The alcohol is a depressant — a drug that slows the reflexes and hinders the
judgement.
3. Alcoholism is and addictive drug - Some teenagers become alcoholics within
the first six months after taking their first drink.
4. Every five seconds, a teenager has an accident, involving alcohol or drugs.
5. Driving under the alcohol influence, is the principal cause of death between teenagers.
Despite the well known risks and costs of alcohol consumption in our society, most people
choose to drink alcohol in a fairly regular basis. Although public campains of the designated
driver have helped to reduce the incidence of mortal accidents related to a driver under the
alcohol effects. It's clear enough that drinking and driving, is still a serious problem in our
society. The incidence of fatal accidents related with driving under the alcohol influence makes
clear that driving and drinking is a very serious problem in our society.
If we ask ourselves how long does a frequent drinker must wait to drive. Assuming the
following data from an individual male: 70 kg of weight, clasified as a low moderate drinker,
with the stomach empty. If starts drinking 3 beers per hour during two hours. The total
amount of time since the person starts drinking until reaches the limit of CAS to 0.08 {gr/dl}
(CAS= Concentracion de Alcohol en la sangre, Blood Alcohol Concentration) , is 425 minutes, if
we substract those minutes to the two hours that the binge lasts (120 minutes). It gives us a
recovery time needed of 305 minutes, equivalent to 5.08 hours.
It means that an average person of 70 kg who drinks a six of beers, must wait 5. 08 hours
before driving a car if the person doesn’t want to be arrested for driving drunk. If the drunk
person is female, the waiting time will be considerably higer.
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
BUILDING THE MODEL
Any substance that enters to the body, goes first to the stomach and then to the blood system,
such as alcohol. It suggests a design of a model with two sections. The alcohol accumulates in
the stomach, then its absorbed from there by the body. En each of these stages, alcohol may
be represented as an accumulator. There is a stream that enters to the stomach and other taht
goes to the body and another that flows out the body (in this release the liver and kidneys are
involved).
The flow entering by the mouth may be considered a constant while the person drinks. The
cosntant is determinated for the time the person drinks. For this model, we’ll choose the unit
of time as “Minutes”. In the following chart, the principal characteristics of an individual are
shown to develop all the examples whit an analysis of sensitivity to compare weight, gender
and alcohol tolerance, as the ability to participate in two binges, one after the other.
Male.
We assume he starts drinking in complete sobriety.
Drinks three beers per hour during two hours and then stops.
One beer contains 13.6 grams of alcohol.
Alcohol tolerance: Low moderate.
Gr pe bee: pe
Alcohol’s Basic Model.
Amount of Alcohol Alcohol
in stomach in body
Drinking is ij Eliminated
Alcohol quantity quantity
czy
‘Systems dynamic for alcohol's history in the blood system.
Any substance that enters to the body, travels first to the stomach and then to the blood system. It suggests a model with
two stocks. The alcohol is accumulated in the stomach, and from that place is absorpted by the rest of the body and
eliminated by the liver and kidneys. In each one of these stages, alcohol may be represented as an accumulator.
There is a flow that enters to the stomach, anotherone goes to the rest of the body and one more out the body. The inflow
can be considered as a constant that ends when the person stops drinking.
For this model, we choose “minutes” to measure the time. Our individual will be a person of an average size (70 kg).
Assuming that starts drinking in a state of complete sobriety: then drinks three beers per hour during two hours and then
stops.
Illustration 1: Alcohol’s Basic Model.
Alcohol accumulates into the stomach. An absorption process brings it to the body. The more
alcohol in the stomach, the more quickly it’s absorpted by the body. For now, we assume a
simple or perfect absorption, where the 6.93% of alcohol in the stomach is absorpted every
minute.
In the other side, the alcohol that moved from the stomach to the body, is eliminated off the
body by the liver and kidneys. Here we'll also asume that the ideal process occurs with an
elimination rate of the 0.6% each minute.
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Alcohol learning la
Exponential ideal model for the alcohols absorption and elimination.
My weight Kgs oLbs Percentage
in man
Weight
of body
ercentage
of liquid
Gender
BAC cale
Absorption
Alcohol
in body
‘Amount of Alcohol
in stomach
Percentage
in woman
Ae}
*
Drinking ‘Absorbed
Alcohol
Eliminated
quantity
‘Systems dynamic for alcohol's history in the blood system. Elimination
(Exponential Perfect Behavior) rate
Steps:
1. Alcohol is drunk in cans or cups per hour.
2. Alcohol travels to the stomach where is absorpted by the rest of the body, the more
alcohol in the stomach, the more absorption in the blood system
3. The alchol that has moved from the stomach to the rest of the body is eliminated by the
liver and kidneys
its supposed ideally that the absorption and elimination process follow an exponential
behavior.
Illustration 2: Exponential ideal model of alcohol’s absorption and elimination.
Determining the alcohol concentration in the blood (BAC)
The alcohol amount in the rest of the body hasn’t the same concentration than in the blood. The CAS is the number
of alcohol grams per unit of liquid volume in deciliters in the person. To determine the CAS, we need to know the
person’s weight, in kilos or pounds. On average, the 68% of weight in an adult male is liquid, in women, the average
percentage is 55%. To simplify the calculations, we assume that 1 litter is approximately equal to 1 kilogram. The
amount of liquid in the body is usually called volume of distribution (Vd) adn typically it is in units of deciliters (dl).
Graphic results of the ideal model for the alcohol in the body
@ +: Amountof Alcohol in stomach 2: Alcohol in body 3: BAC
1
FE
a
2
f ~
~
Pr ~~, Fa
1 J ha! —
3] — eae
0.00 180.00 360.00 540.00 720.00 900.
Page 4 Minutos 08:14 p.m. vie, 20 de abr de 2010]
Nee ? Eliminacién del aleohol de forma ideal con comportamiento exponencial
Illustration 3: Alcohol’s Ideal ‘ial process of ‘ion and
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Alcohol learning la
Improving the calculations for the elimination of alcohol in the body.
Given the importance that alcoholism has in our society, specially for its high costs in public
health, the results of the model, shown in the figure 5 have been validated by many practical
experiments. Relatively to measure the behavior of the CAS in the time, taking blood samples
of a person who drinks alcohol in constant time intervals. When graphing the real behavior vs.
the ideal, we realize how well the model works.
In the ideal model, the CAS determination is suitable. But, the shape of the elimination’s curve
of alcohol in the body is incorrect. The alcohol is inusual because the experiment has shown
that the elimination does not follow an exponential form. Given that alcohol is a little bit
strong drug and, people frequently drink large amounts (compared to other drugs), the drug
receptor cells in the body, are working at its maximum capacity during the elimination.
Consequently, the part of the curve of CAS that represents the elimination, seems a linear
curve. This requires a formula modification used in the elimination rate.
The investigation of alcohol elimination from the rest of the body, yielded two alternative
formulas:
1. Widmark’s Model.
2. Mathematic model Michaelis-Wilton.
The mathematic model Michaelis-Wilton for the elimination process of alcohol in the body
depends on two new components:
1. The rate of elimination (Vmax) is equal to 0.015 gr/dl/hour
2. Michaelis constant K,, is defined as 0.01 gr/dl
Note: The justification of these values, goes furthermore this story and we won't explain it
here.
The elimination rate is then the Michaelis-Menton formula as follows:
Elimination rate= T; — = gr/dl/Min
The eliminated amount can be calculated multiplying this “Elimination Rate” by the
distribution volume (V4).
Eliminated amount = (T.) * (Va) = gr/Min
Note 1: Michaelis-Menton equation integrated in the model to correct the elimiation rate.
Note 2: The model equations are reported in the appendix “A”.
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Alcohol learning la
Corrected Model with Michaelis-Menton equation.
My weight Kgs oLbs Percentage
in man
Weight
of body
ercentage
of liquid
Gender
Absorption
Alcohol
in body
‘Amount of Alcohol
in stomach
Percentage
in woman
63
+
Drinking
Alcohol
Eliminated
quantity
BAC calc
‘Systems dynamic for alcoho''s history in the blood system.
(Real behavior, based on the Michaelis-Wilton model)
When thru experimentation was shown that the behavior of the alcoho'’s elimination curve of the
CAS is unusual and doesn't follow an exponential pattern. It became necessary to implement a
correction to the ideal model, based on the Mathematical model developed by
Michaelis-Wilton
Vmax
Given that alcohol is a strong drug and people commonly drinks large quantities (comparing
with other drugs), the drug receptors in the body are working in their maximum capacity during
the elimination. In consequence, the CAS curve that represents the elimination, looks as a
linear behavior. It demands a change of the ideal exponential model, integrating the
Michaelis-Wilton’s formula in the model
tion 4: Mi jis-Ment ‘ion integrated in the model.
Corrected Model -
- Graphical Results of alcohol in the ideal body vs. the real body
® Atcoholin body: 1-2-
th 704°
~
j
t
00 180.00 360.00 $40.00 720.00 900.0%
Page 3 Minutos 09:55 p.m. vie, 20 de abr de 2010]
NJ 8&2 ? Alcohol en el cuerpo 1- Real, 2- Ideal exponencial
5: Ce ‘ive graphical results of the alcohol in the body (1) vs. (2) the ideal.
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Corrected Model - II - Graphical results of BAC (gr/dl)
Alcohol learning la
1
@ Bac: 1-2-
204
180.00
380.00
549.00
720.00 900.00
Minutes 03:49 p.m. vie, 30 de abr de 2010)
1- CAS x 100 Real modelo Michaelis-Wilton, 2- CAS x 100 Ideal exponencial
lis-Menton Model (1) vs,
Ideal Model (2)
BAC Model - Graphical results of the corrected model.
wn
ene
|
Page 2
ene
@ +: Amount of Alcohol in stomach
704: beste
Minutos
720.00 900.¢
11:53 AM Tue, Mar 11, 2014
Illustration 7: (1) Alcohol in the stomach, (2) Alcohol amount in the body, (3) BAC x 100 Real
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
Integrating the logic to the first binge.
‘Amount of Alcohol Alcohol
in stomach in body
Drinking 1 kK & Eliminated
Hours arinking 1 (Alcohol quant quantity
B Orunkenness 1
Binge 1
Everything inciates in the first party where the person starts drinking some
beverages with alcohol. I's necessary to know the kind of drinks (beer, wine or
wishkey), the amount of drinks per hour and the number of hours the person drinks.
By, Grams of alcohol
per min
Drinks
per hour
It's supposed that this flow is continuous. In other words, when the person finishes
drinking the first beverage, immediately starts drinking the secondone and so on.
Kind of Grams of alcohol Drinks grams
beverage 1__ in beverage of alcohol
Illustration 8: BAC Model, first binge
Four variables are needed to define the data in the first binge.
1. Type of drink 1: The type of beverage used in the binge 1 is here defined (Ex. 1= beer,
2= Champagne, 3= wine, 4= Whiskey)
2. Drinks per hour: Number of drinks ingested per hour.
. Hours drinking 1: Amount of hours drinking continuously.
4. Grams of alcohol drinked: The catalog of drinks.
Logic to manage the second binge.
in beverages 2 beverage 2
Beverages per Grams #f Alcohol
our in beyprage 2
Grams of alcohol
per min 2
ail é = Amount of Alcohol ‘Alcohol
Hours OK2 in stomach in body
drinking 2 om, = =
Drinking 1 i < | Eliminated
Hours difnking 1 | Alcohol a
Drunkenness 1 Binge 2
Once the fisrt party ends, can be chosen to continue the second binge ina
Grams of alcohol ‘second party. There is the option to have similar drinks, like in the first
ied party or change the beverage type.
Drinks
pect: Similarly, the drink is selected, the amount of drink per hour and the
number of hours that endures the second binge.
Kind of Grams of alcohol Drinks grams
beverage 1 in beverage of alcohol
Illustration 9: Model with the logic of the second binge.
Five variables are needed to define the data of the second binge.
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Alcohol learning la
1. Type of drink 2: The type of beverage used in the binge 2 is here defined (Ex. 1= beer,
2= Champagne, 3= wine, 4= Whiskey)
Drinks per hour 2: Number of drinks ingested per hour.
Hours drinking 2: Amount of hours drinking continuously.
Grams of alcohol drinked 2: The catalog of drinks.
OK 2: O= means that the individual participated only in the first binge, 1= means that
the individual has participated in bouth binges, attending to the first bing and
immediately participating in the second binge.
Be see gos
Improving the calculation desing of the absorption rate of the stomach.
Until now, the absorption rate was defined as one constant with a value of 6.93% /Min, in
other words it’s equal to 0.0693/Min. This is only correct in the case that the beer has a half-
life of 10 minutes within the stomach when the stomach is empty.
In other words, the absorption rate for the beer, can be defined according the following
formula:
0.693 0.693 : 4 Afi A
Vida Media = 19 7 9-0693 / Min. For the case when the individual drinks
when the stomach is empty.
Absorption Rate =
It has a mathematical breakdown that gets out of reach in this article. I’ll only write the final
formula, based on the exponential behavior of the absorption flow of the stomach.
. __4N@) 0693147, r
Absorption Rate = TieMed = vaamend units of 1/Min.
The advatage of using the half-life to calculate the absorption rate of stomach is that now we
account two factors that affect this half-life. They are:
1. The firstone has to do with wether the individual’s stomach has food or not. Untill
now, the model assumes that there isn’t food in the stomach, which is equivalent to
no influence upon the half-life. However, a stomach full of food, can increase the half-
life to the doble.
©) Graphical Function a
2.000, Fool of food {No Effect of foodin
turidades} the stomach
0.000 7000
0.100 4.300
Effect of 0.200 1.200
jeadintie 0.300 4.300
emech 0.400 4.400
0.500 7.500
0.800 1.800
0.700 1.700
a.800 1.800
0.900 4.900
er] 1.000 2.000
SF ———
Fool_of food {No unidades} DataPoints 11
Edt Outpt
[_Tetauation | [_DeleteGrept | [_Caneat
Illustration 10: Curve to match a full stomach with the Food effect in the stomach.
10
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Alcohol learning la
2. The half-life of absorption also reacts if the alcohol is carbonized as in the case of the
beer, or concentrated as in the case of Whiskey, or bouth as the champagne.
a. If alcohol is carbonized and at the same time concentrated as champagne,
then the half-life is as short as a value of 5 minutes.
b. If the alcohol isn’t carbonized or concentrated as the case of the wine, then,
the half-life can take a value of 20 minutes.
c. If the alcohol is only carbonized as in the case of beer, then, the half-life is 10
minutes.
d. For the case of Whiskey, in which the alcohol is concentrated, its half-life is
also 10 minutes.
Integrating the new Abosrption Rate of the stomach to the Model.
Grams of Alcohol Kind of Normal Half life of -—_—Effect of food Fool of
in beverages 2 beverage 2 half life the drinks inthe stomach food
O-O
Current
half life
Beverages per Grams #f Alcohol
hou in bey
Kind of
beverage 1
Grams of alcohol
er min
Hours drinking 4
‘Abs 0.0693147
‘Amount of Alcchol ‘Alcohol
Hours unkenness ? OK 2 in stomach in body
drinking 2,
Drinking Lee Eliminated
Hours dinking 1 Alcohol ‘quantity quantity
Drunkenness 1
Absorpted amount by the stomach
Grams of alcohol The stomach’s absorption rate is linked with two factors:
Drinks
per hour
1. The halflife. Each beverage has a half-life in {minutes} of absoprtion in the,
stomach.
2. The amount of food ingested in the stomach. ifthe stomach is empty, the
half-life of the beverage is not altered but, if the stomach is full of food, the half-life
Kind of Grams of alcahol Drinks grams | of the beverage may increase to the doble.
beverage 1 in beverage of alcohol
At this point, alcohol goes thru the stomach to the blood stream and fromit to the
rest of the body.
Illustration 11: New logic of the calculation for the Absorption Rate of the stomach.
Another improvement for the calculation of the elimination rate, based on the
tolerance level of alcohol.
Based on the level tolerance of alcohol that some people have, for instance, those who are
alcoholic (alcohol patients) the elimination speed VMAX is 0.03 gr/dl/hour, what means the
double of VMAX, defined for a drinker with a moderate low tolerance level given by 0.015
gr/dl/hour.
We’ve defined different variables to clasify the tolerance level as shown below:
11
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Alcohol learning la
1. Arookie drinker = 0.00
2. Moderate low drinker = 0.20
3. Moderate high drinker = 0.50
4. Alcoholics = 0.80
5. Drinker type = (1, 2, 3, 4) to indicate the type of drinker.
Curve that links the tolerance level of alcohol with Vax
(5) Graphical Function
0.035 aeeerrme Elfect of tolerance
unidades} nines
0.000 ooo
0100 ant2
Effect of 0.200 ors
tolerance in 0.300 ao17
Vmax 0.400 0.020
0500 0.023
0.600 0.025
0.700 028
n.800 0.030
0.900 0.033
foto 1 4.000 0.035
7
B 0.000 fi DoD}
ee Toletance_to_aleohol {No unidades} DataPoints: 11
Edit Output:
{. TeEquation | [DeleteGreph | [Cancel | [0K] ||
‘ion 12: i ip b the level of alchol vs effect in Vuax- (see 15)
BAC calculation (gr/dl)
Grams of Alcohol Kind of Normal alflife of Effect offeod Fool of Myweight Kgsolbs Percentage
in beverages 2 beverage 2 haltli@ the drinks in the stomach food . ae ance
a
Weight
of body
Percentage
oF liquid
halflife
Beverages per Grams ff Alcohol
he beyprage 2
bevel
Grams of alcohal Kind of Gender
por min 2 beverage 1 _/ Hours drinking 1 BAC cale
os Absorption
nount of Alcahol lechol Percentage
Hous funkenness } OK2 in stomach in body in woman
drinking 2,/ oul =
ee Fa M3
Dining Kosorbed Etminated
Hours dihking 1 Alcohol ant
CAS (Alcohol concentration in the blood).
‘The amount of alcohol in the rest of the body isn't the same tan in the blood. In a blood test, the grams of alcohol are
i ision per fat ofthe person. This is called CAS in units {ar/dh}
To determine the CAS, it's necesary to know the weight of the person in kilograms or pounds and also what's the
percentage of the weight thatis liquid in an adult. I's supossed that a kilogram of weight is equal to one litter of liquid.
For men, the percentage is 68% and for women is 55% The quantity of liquid in the bodys frequently called distribution
6} volumen (Vd) in {Deciliters=d)}.
13: Alcohol ion in the blood.
12
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Alcohol learning la
View logic to calculate the Elimination Rate.
se Halfliie of Effect offecd Fool of My weight —-Kgso Lbs Percentage
Elimination rate and flow of the efminated the drinks in the stomach food ey
; ae
‘quantity. = C _ O ise ‘ J) Cj
Alcohol is unusual because its elimination is not A ofbedy ia
Currert 5
‘exponentially. Given that alcohol is a strong drug hak ife = ek Percentage
and people commonly drinks large quantities es Ce aa
(comparing with other drugs), the drug receptors. [~~»{ ye F ‘a pa)
inthe body are working in their maximum capacity "ae i i \ Na Gander
‘during the elimination. In consequence, the CAS. f BAC calc Vd Nw Sc oemas
curve that represents the elimination, looks as a ey
linear behavior (tested experimentaly). It demands ) aa Ke
a change of the ideal exponential model, a Alechal Percentage
integrating the Michaelis-Wilton’s formula in the ye in wemnan
model 3
‘The investigation of alcohol elimination off the rest | “Absorbed L_] Eliminated
of the body, brought two akemattive formulas: quanity quantity
4. Widmark Model B 2AC calc
2 Michaels-Witon Model. (This is used in our
‘simulation model). iedera Tolerance to *
low drinker —
pd a a
Elimination Rete = (CAS * Vmax\(Km + CAS) in
units {gr/dVhour} and this depends on the ad
tolerance level to alcohol that the person has and | jedoiaie
KIM is the Michaelis’ constant that is equal to 0.07 righ arincer_
(guid. a
Final, the flow "Eliminated amount" is the result =
‘of muttipiying the Elimination rate per Distribution Alcahelios
volumen (Vd) {arimin}.
Effect of tolerance
Diinker type
Illustration 14: New logic for the Elimination Rate.
Reference Values for BAC in the world.
In many cities and countries of the world, values have been defined for CAS to comply with the
driving limits and, doing it to avoid accidents or problems about the way individuals drink.
Below we show a figure with some of these values to cities in the USA and Mexico.
1. The maximum CAS level for driving is (0.08 gr/dl) in Oregon City and many other cities
in the world.
2. An individual normally lose consciousness with a CAS of (0.30 gr/dl)
3. The risk of death exists at (0.45 gr/dl).
In many places of USA, the acceptable limit to drive is (0.10 gr/dl).
oe
Reference ates wie wonder CAS.
ave
Reference vats
1-45-08 (to ne aca (Some bos rou he won kein Oren USA)
2-GAS= 030 can cause fang
3 CAS 045 canbe ata.
4.6AS=010 76} ised nto USA
Illustration 15: Reference values in the world for BAC.
13
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Alcohol learning la
BAC Model Complete.
Grams of Alcohol Kind of Normal Hafli of Effect offocd Fool of My weight Kgs o Lbs Pecentage Oregon SAC Lege
epee voeeye2 tate Heri intecomoch eed lee
ae COR wm PO axed
me
re cnet a8)
\ we) is possible
tea AC whe cath
i a oes “eames
Scent ommrauedy acess wd slat
a C sgn “Ss
a. ‘Amount of Alechol ate | alcohol Percentage eee
Hours hots} OK2 in stomach in body. Z Inwoman patito of
drinlong 2 / 7, J] A pe the drinks
= ; ei m3 on
nes
Cp) Drunkeness 4 Q Esmnston
wa Figg
Co ED a mane — 8
C re
oie = ane
a. ics zs = ©) O
meee ra eMC, Me
BAC Possible BAC aint
ercentage
of iqud
Graine ef alochol
per min 2
ry
(
/ ciminated
( quantity
ae acca
BAC dmve
= ex
Kind of | Grome af alcohol Drinks grams
Dinar
beverage 1 in beverage ofalechol o
A)
Alcchelics
to drive faint em
BAC Pessible BAC death
feath
Illustration 16: BAC Model Complete including its auxiliary variables.
Note: The model equations are reported in the appendix “A”.
Control Center of simulation with the three bands of reference for BAC.
{} Grupo Sinapsys: [Organizacién que Aprende] ©
Blood Alcohol Content (BAC)
“Instruction |
Single data of drinker: @ ac ZAG ae Teen AC oath
(algender 1) (ED) [ianorWoman ‘
b- Weight
Cites El i
‘dType of drinker |)
4-Rookie :
pies moverTicderete Tolerance to alcohol eee
. r :
3- Hight maderate =
: | La 20 Tea cy Ea) cr)
‘eAconalle sine s2aa'it Mon, Fant, 201
: 2 ‘Concentrscién de Alcehol en is sangre (CAS x 100) ji)
Tolerance
"i t Recovery Time to drive
kind of drink
g-Drinks / Hour ‘ ‘Complet
1-Beer12 oz ort
: 2-Champaane
in Hours of drink 3
3-Wine
Lefoolottood 4-Whiskey Cases
LUNIEMPRENDEDORES: Vision Esvalegiea Sielamien
Illustration 17: Control Center with the reference values for BAC.
14
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
The impact of plotting the BAC reference values.
How important is to plot the BAC reference values, so we can quickly realice the impact a few
drinks have about the recovery time needed to drive again or to know if an specific drink will
makes us sleep or perhaps put us on the verge of death.
In this way, we can clearly vizualice how much we can drink, at what time the risk starts, what
we must do to comply the laws of the city or country, when is the time to stop drinking and
not jeopardize our physical integrity and the others’. What an amazing learning lab has been
created!
Alcohol Learning Lab
Collaborators:
Le Beatie E. Navarra Vazquez
a Lic, Pedro D. Aimaguer Navarro
s Ue Ramira L. Almaguer Navarro.
Designed by:
Lic: Ruth R. lmaguer Navarro
Illustration 18: Learning Lab for BAC.
Alcohol: Sensitivity Analysis.
There are occasions when it’s important to make comparisons of CAS (Blood concentration of
alcohol) to obtain a variable with different values and see their numerical and graphical results
and the impact of these changes and their behavior over the time. So we can dicover the
differences in drunkenness between a man and a woman and specially, the time needed to
drive again since the binge finished to comply the CAS limits of 0.08 {gr/dl} impossed as a law
in many parts fo the world.
Study cases presented below:
Compare differences between genders.
The impact on people of the same sex, but different weight.
The role of the tolerance level to alcohol.
How it impacts the results if the stomach is full or empty of food.
What happens if the person participates in a second party and drinks the same or
different beverages.
6. Compare the impact of two different drinks, taken during a single party.
UPRPWNe
15
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
7. The possibility of developing new study cases, different to those shown.
Note: To develop the sensitivity analysis, use the menu option RUN “Sensi Specs”.
History of Alcohol
4} Grupo Sinapsys: [Organizacién que Aprende] ©
Weight Tolerance Gender Spree 2 Simulation
i i (New “Complet BAC
History of Alcohol in the Blood System (ee Complet)
cases e model model
$9: Amount of Alcohol 2: Alcohol in body
[1 Introduction i a]
(2< Constructing the model i ‘a
(3: Data of Drinker |
5- Calculation /
a- Absorption rate f
¢-Whatis the BAG? , mS
| c- Elimination rate | 4] ‘
: | 00 ea00 00 00 ry
d- Limits for BAG in the world Change frase _—
ee (5) 2 Alshol an lentimage y an sears dl cusp (Gros)
6- Results of model =a
ca ieraiSe @ 104aAN 04990010 Table & pa (Absorcidn conver) ? Feel
ee Minutos [Amount of Alcohol in stom] Alcohol in body
B- Beer vs Champagne 2a 348 39]
(G-Champagne vs Wine | 2] os Be
30. 36 70.43
(DeAleoholin stomach-body =a a aad
E- BAG to drive 323] a7 7147|
jorenge 33. 2.85] 71.99 Pe
T-Conclusions pase by == 7
‘GNTEMPRENGEDORES: Vision Eatratagica Sistinicn
Illustration 19: History of alchol and graphical results.
Compare results when the stomach is empty and when its full of food.
iS Sasi Spe ==) | Full of food
Seta abe)
Giving values to this variable between 0 and 1, we
indicate to the simulator the amount of food the
stomach contains before drinking alcohol.
a ae In this case, we want to compare what happens if
Editi elie tail: the person drinks a specific type of beverage and
areas Po the stomach is empty or full of food.
borin: Daten =| ae
2 sinks 1. Empty stomach = 0 means empty
ae sateovaree stomach.
apn
ae 2. Full of food = 1 when the stomach is full.
Illustration 20: Sensitivity analysis for individuals
with the stomach empty or full of food.
16
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
Graphical Results for a person who drinks beer or wine having or haven’t
eaten.
} Grupo Sinapsys: [Organizacién que Aprende] ©
Weight Tolerance Gender Spree 2 ‘Simulation
i i (New eo
History of Alcohol in the Blood System (ee (ee) Ee
Buce
J intreduetion
|B. Data of Drinker ~~
(4 Statisties ie
'5- Calculation | NN
YN,
(z:apsorption rate aN
-Limits for BAC in the world Change We
pices 2 Pans tena onan sevecs (045. Vas, 2-Eeinage as)
&- Results of model - >
papearensranere eee © 1048 Au 04220010 Table & ps Aosorcién coneead ? #50)
Se wines inbooy |
B-Beer vs Champagne = aaa =a E
‘(CChampagne vs Wine EX 8.89] 2.22)
30, a0 1043
D-Alcono! in stomach- body 31.0) E70| 7085)
E-BAG to drive 229 a77| 1147]
oange 33.0| 6.65] 11.99]
fa ~ Bo »
Illustration 6: Comparing (1) Empty Stomach, (2) full of food, drinking beer in both cases.
} Grupo Sinapsys: [Organizacién que Aprende] ©
History of Alcohol in the Blood System 2 &
cases ¢ model model
pace
5: Calculation
Absorption rate
What is the BAC? f
fc. Elimination rate
[d- Limits for BAC in the world Change rare Mouton -
Neary 2 Paza tes, oni Veo CAS x00 i stimap Vas, 2- Ue
BCAA ADOROTO Tao #4 Maserati caneaa) 7 Faq]
init inbogy 1°
i 7g a9 oa
‘¢- Champagne vs Wine 200 aa 992
30d 364 7043
_B-Aleofol in stomach: body = ma =
E-BAC to arive Z wad an 1147
eaaioe. 33.0 8.85 1199]
T-Conclusions pear fy .
Illustration 7: Comparing (1) Empty stomach, (2) full of food, drinking Wine in both cases.
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Comparing what happens with different kind
of drinks.
Alcohol learning la
O Weeate gh der
(© Merete bncenker ~
2 200
olf:
2
etre
Illustration 21: Compare Beer vs. Champagne
oper a Beverage type 1
In this case, we can make comparissons of
the impact on the recovery time to drive a
pote vehicle a person will have if drinks different
lou type of drinks.
Yatton Tp unk Yate The possible values for the drink type 1 are:
+ tor
Beer
Wine
Whiskey
PW Pp
Champagne
gWhat happens if instead of beer someone drinks champagne?
} Grupo Sinapsys: [Organizacién que Aprende] ®
j j BAC
History of Alcohol in the Blood System @e aa |
|_ cases | © model model
@ woe
[1 Introduction
_2- Constructing the model
(3: Data of Drinker
- Statistics SN
5- Calculation / oo
a- Absorption rate F _
¢: What is the BAG? / a
‘c- Elimination rate Z
! : 20 hao a dco mt
d- Limits for BAC in the world Change [Page 2 fois
faye 2 {Cerveza ve 2 Channa (CAS x 109 for
6- Results of model = —_
REDE SS ERSTST aE. ® 10:49AM 04/22/2010 _ Table 4:p4 (Absorcion cerveza) 2 ¢ En
es Tinto [Amount of Alcohol n stom] Alcohol in Body
B- Beer vs 43] 9.42|
“C- Champagne vs Wine a as ae
30.9 861 70.43]
— Alcohol in stomach- body 310) ‘a70] 70.95]
|AG to drive 229 a7i 7147]
oanoe 33.0] 8.85 11.99] ~
7-Conelusions pase a :
TNiEMPRENBEDORES: Vain Eiraiogin Siciiien
Illustration 22: Different type of drink, Beer (1) vs. Chi
jampagne (2)
18
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
gWhat if someone drinks champagne vs. wine?
5) Sensitivity Specs
© Kind_ot_beveroge 2
Okm
© Moderate ch. cinker
© Moderate low nker|_|
© My vcihi Fl
Ok |
© Oregon Bio dive
© Pecentoge in_man
Selecied [Vaue}
TV)
Type of drink 1
In this case, we compare the impact
champagne vs. wine. In the following
chart, we can see that champagne is
faster than wine.
Values for the drink type 1:
Vain Tyee Runt Vale
rewacid, 1 20 e Champagne = 2
Hol Pune Dsraser 2 am ,
aes Cs) e Wine =3
Paste cota
esi ‘Ad hoo Values: 3
| saan]
[abe
Illustration 23: Comparing champagne vs. wine
Clearly, champagne drunks faster than wine.
Grupo Sinapsys: [Organizacién que Aprende] ©
History of Alcohol in the Blood System ee Game)
cases e model model
@ wor
[1 Introduction
_2- Constructing the model
(B:Data of Drinker
4- Statistics i i
5- Calculation If N
Absorption rate /
¢- What is the BAC? i ~, =
“c- Elimination rate Z
L © 808 0 Eni) mm,
d- Limits for BAC in the world Change deacis 7 Loarscen
page fied 2 1 Champafia,2- Vino (CAS x 100) ov
6- Results of model : —
SED GG Escala ® 10:48AM 04/22/2010 Table 4: p4 (Absorcién cerveza) 2 ¢ En
(Seen Minutos [amount of Alcohol in stom] Acohal in bady 1
B- Beer vs Champagne om 243] 740]
"C- Champagne vs Wine 24 28] oa2|
30 861 70.43
U D- Alcohol in stomach- body 31.01 370) 70.95]
E- BAC to drive 32.0) 8.77| 11.47]
Change 33.0) 8.85] 11.99] ~
7- Conclusions page—> by z 5
‘GNTEWPRENDEBORES: Visien Esiradgica Statice
Illustration 24: Comparing Champagne (1) vs. Wine (2)
19
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Now, let’s compare men of different weights.
Alcohol learning la
=
5) Sensitivity Specs
Allawable
© Kos_o_Lbs
© Kind_of_beverage 1
© Kid of_beverage 2
O kn
Selected [Vauel
(O Moderate..oh_dinker
(O Modetate_bw_dinker
OK.
© Diegon B..t to_sive
© Percentage. man
O USA BAC..to.diive =
Vasiation Tyne Runt Vale
ineremertal
tof Rune: Dasnbutr arm if
3 @ Adhoe
Paste deta
Re AdhocVaues: S07 7 Senstivty On
[Teh] Pint Setups
|_itabie_
Illustration 25: Compare men of different weights.
My weight
Here we'll compare the impact on
the recovery time for three men of
different weight in kilos.
1. 45.5 kg
2. 70.0 kg
3. 90.7 kg
In the chart below, we can see that
the lower the weight, the more the
impact alcohol has on the recovery
time to drive.
How alcohol impacts to individuals of different weights in kilos.
Grupo Sinapsys: [Organizacién que Aprende] ©
Alcohol
wae | eine
Gender
Spree 2 Simulation
This case make referens to the comparation of BAC forthree
men with different weight (45.5, 70, 90.7 kg) that drink 6 beers in
two hours without eat, and are clasified as drinkers ofthe kind
“low moderate”, Wich must be the recovery time to drive a car?
LUNIEMPRENDEDORES: Visicn Estratogica Sistomics
‘ , 5 BAC
Compare male drinkers of diferent weight re) ibe
@ 214PN 04/21/2010 Table 3(CAS« 100) ? 726) @ ec
Minutos Bac [2pac [3 BAC bt i
200] 2088) 1471 301
261.0] 2088| 11.69 7.39)
2e20] 2084] t1e7|——_—7.96
2630) 2061] tteal ——_7.94|
2ea0{ 2050] 1162! 7.92
2660] 2056] 11.60 7.30)
2660] 2054] 11.88 7.88]
aero 2052) 11.88 7.85|
2eeo| 2040| tea! 7.83]
2eao] 2047/1484 7a : -
2roo) 20a5| 11.48 779) _|fpsse = a pa Seen pi ga ae
ao = == Ne 2 148.5 kg, 2-70 p39. hg (CAS 100 fr
4- BAC 48 & kg, 2- BAC 70kg, 3 BAC 90.7 kg. All men ] General data BBE at aes 8 Tt
The question "Tis anewer
4-The drinker with 45.5 kg must wait 690 Min (11.5 hr}
2~The man of 70 kg, must wait unil 305 min {5.08 hi
3-The heaviest of 90.7 kg, needs to recover only 140 min {2.33 hr}
Illustration 26: Compare different weights of men (1) 45.5 Kg, (2) 70 y (3) 90.7 Kg
20
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
Now let’s see what happens with a man and a woman.
1S) Sensitivity Specs
z ‘Allowable
(© Dinks_g. Champaial =
© Diinks_..chalvino}
© Diinks_g.ofwhisky)
© Diinks_per_hour
© Fool_of food 1
Selected (Vek)
© Giams_ot..2{Cerveza ” aft
© Grems_o..Champatia)
O Groms.of..es_2¥inol
© Giams_ot.. 21Whisky]
© Hall_ite..ks{Cerve23)
© Halt Ife..[Champafia]
© Hall ite_.sinkst¥ino]
[ers eal
Vaiiaion Type Runt Value
incremertal
fof Rune Disitton =| “GE
S|
2 8 Adhoc a
Paste data
Define
Ad hoe Values: TSenetivty On
I Print Sets
Table. |
Gender.
To make comparissons between a
man and a woman about the
impact of the recovery time when
drinking alcohol. Give the following
values to the variable Gender:
1. Gender = 0 for women.
2. Gender = 1 for men.
In the following chart, is clear that
women are more affected than
men for the alcohol.
Illustration 27: Compare a man and a woman.
Comparing the alcohol effect between a man and a woman.
} Grupo Sinapsys: [Organizacién que Aprende] ®
Alcohol Weight
Compare the case of a man and woman {Of 70 KG
BOTH}
pees eens rae
Simulation
eeoose)
@LiTAN waz T2010 Tae CAS? FSO] ||
Minutos 4: BAC |2:BAC aif"
avoof 204] 0.19]
aarof 202] a.19|
exo] 201] ara]
930] 199| 0.48
sos.0/ 198[ 0.18
aq 198| 0.47
age. 4.94[ 0.17
| di
aszof teal 0.47] 7 i
aaa) 49i[ 076 / linge
899.0) 1.89) 0.16] -
co co adm a
Final] 1.88] 0.16 =| rose ius
<E rial (Sc ? {CAS x 100) fav} 1-70 kg Mujer, 2-70 hg Hombre
4- BAC for the low moderate drinker
The question
Considering only the differences of corporal liquid, what will
happen with a woman who drinks the same amount of alcohal
than a man with the same weight (70 Ka), with the stomach
‘emply of food and the similar level of tolerance "Low moderate’.
UNIEMPRENDEDORES: Visién Estratogica Sistdenlaa
Conclusion
Data forman an woman )
(Differences between aman and awoman
4-The woman get drunk faster than man,
2 The woman needs to wait 7.9 hours (474 Min) until drive legally.
3- Man needs to wait 6.8 hours (306 Min) to drive a car.
BAC Limit to drive 0.8 x 100 (arial)
‘Complet) (— BAC
emodel) |_ model
Illustration 28: Compare both of them 70 KG (1) Woman, (2) Man
21
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
What happens to individuals with different tolerance level to alcohol.
©) Senritvity Specs =a ;
sa Type of drinker.
Alowable
© BAC oho. s possbe » - ren ,
BAL epee The tolerance level of an individual is
everage. hou
aioe ‘teen * defined in the variable Drinker Type
Se ae ee [ wich can take the following values:
Drinks orotic)
© Drinks pe hour ¥ ah
© Fool of food 1. Rookie drinker.
© Gender
© Grems_ct..21Cerveza) 2. Moderate low drinker.
© Greme_o..Champatial ~
‘ne tae Fun Vee 3. Moderate high drinker.
© eremertal + 200 i
Hof Runs: Distribution 2 400 4: ‘Alcoholics:
2 @ Adc |
Paste data This ranges from a low level to the
Detne —_—— .
Ade Voice [Zl Sentry Cr i"
oe Trin Supe highest tolerance level.
(awe fan]
Illustration 29: Comparing the tolerance Level.
What happens with alcoholics, how does the tolerance level affects them?
Grupo Sinapsys: [Organizacién que Aprende]
Alcohol Weight Tolerance Gender Spree 2 Simulation
COMPARAR TOMADORES DE DIFERENTE TOLERANCIA AL ALCOHOL. adele Wades
Drinker data Tolerance levels Diferences of tolerance
@ 227 PM 0412112010 Table2(CASx100) PF EB] || so
Minutos: 4: BAC 2: BAC al} *
2200) 1263) 825
221.0] 1260) 8.24
222.0) 4258) 8.17 fA
2230) 1258| 8.12
224.0) 12.54 8.08] a
250) 1251] 8.03 / |
226.0] 1249|__7.99
227.0) 12.47| 7.94] Zz
oa aro ae / KS :
229.0} 12.42| 7.86) * <
230.0] 12.40 7.81 —||Paoe - ib 4 ee =
i am role ae anc Mnodetno aj, > Ae (CAB 100) fl
T-BAG the low moderae Sinker 2 GAG of cohol Sa
The question
ifwe compare he BAC curve with simitar consliions of (weight, The law moderate must wait 205 Min {5.08 hr} to erve, whl the alcohol enly 106 min
beers and the stomach), wich will be the recovery time needed to {1.76 hr}, ithas to be with the el of
dive, for an alcoholic and a low moderate drinker? compared wit 0.015 of the low moderate drinker, as incredible this seemsto be, the
alcoholicrecavers faster.
UNIEMPRENDEDORES: Vision Estratégica Sistémiss
Illustration 30: level (1) low, (2)
22
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
What happens when we continue with the spree at a second party?
(5) Sensitivity Specs 597 0K2
Alowable Selected Value
Leo eS * | | Through this variable, we indicate to
Sane the simulator if we attended a second
(© Medetsie..ah_dinker
© Medetsie low cinker
My weight
> Oke
party as shown below:
© Oregon B...to_dive 1. OK =O means that we only
© Percentage n_man
9 Heo cnn attended the first party.
(© USA BAC...to.dive ~ ‘i 2. OK =1in this case, we have
Veriton Type: SUE SSR: attended both parties. The
Incremental 1 a0
# of uns: | Distribution | aa é individual could choose to
2 “s ae have different drinks in each
Define: en a | [Z) Senetiviy On party.
nt Setups
Le [_Saneet
Illustration 31: What’s the impact of a second spree.
What's the impact of a second spree?
{} Grupo Sinapsys: [Organizacién que Aprende] ®
Alcohol Weight Tolerance Gender eee Simulation
THE SPREE CONTINUES Ss & Seeo00cs6
RUNRES,
@ vec Z:BAC ane: BAC fant 4) BAC gesth
Data of the party 2: x
(w:Aiiendancs
Type of dink 7 -
1 -Beer 12.02 EB ;
bs *
2--Champaone
a-wine
4-Whiskey : wa f.
: Z oo 180.00 00 540.00 00 300:
Drink Hour bases ce
L N ? Fiesta 1-8 cervezas y Fests 2-4 copas de vino dura 2 horas
de la fiesta 1 Ja grafica
d—Hours of drink
de la fiesta 2
-Grames of alconol
{Half life {hin}
UNIEMPRENDEDORES: Vision Esiratégica Sistémica
Note
‘The graph includes two pages, inthe firstone (Page 1) the result of attending the twa
parties is shown andin the secondone (Page 2) only the first party appears,
Illustration 32: Party 1+ Party 2 both together.
23
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
Comparing results of one and two sprees.
4 Grupo Sinapsys: [Organizacién que Aprende] ©
Alechol Weight
Tolerance
Gender
mn clio
THE SPREE CONTINUES
Comper BAS e6ooe
e mocel model hd pd
Data othe par
(a Attendance
Type of drink
|
4 Beet 1202
(2champaane /.
2.Wne awed
4-Whiskey 1 é
c-Drink Hour per = |ragez Manto
: eS Si {Fast 12 Amis fst (OAS 1 or Hor 7a
: -——— de ia fiesta 4 ia grafica
‘¢-Hours of annk | =
an a de ia fiesta 2
Half fe (ain) Sa
The graph includes two pages, in the firsione (Page 4) the result of atending the two
partes is shown and inthe secondone (Page 2) only the first erty appears.
LUNIEMPRENDEDORES: Vision Esvaiéglon Siotémist
Illustration 33: (1) only party 1, (2) both parties together.
Develop of new cases of study.
£3 Grupo Sinapsys: [Organizacion que Aprende] ®
OS666066
Spetial cases of drinks
Change
page —>
Velocity of Elimination
‘vmax guamoray
vax {ort
‘Conpiet
emadel
Distibution Volume Va fal
Erect of he food in stomach
Normal nal ine {in
(Current nal if {Min}
Absorption rate {1M}
jade: Palbh; Plansacion asian UNIEMPRENEDORES
Change
page—>
BAC Model Analysis of aes ot na eat Sree, Resin. Hos: evans Manes
Senstivity Wiaaie
Manual of directions
sy roy Emi) ey
wines
2 Dele de petal
ELLUe
Ta ECAH OH 2
Tina
TEI |.
llustracién 34: To develop other sensi
ity analysis not covered until now.
24
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
Conclusions
What an interesting model! Now more tan ever it becomes necessary to bring this type of
learning labs to middle schools, secondary schools and high schools, due to those stages our
youth are starting drinking alcohol.
It’s very important to aware them since an early age, to know what happens inside their bodies
if they consume alcohol, and the possible consequences of current and future traffic accidents
if they become alcoholics.
This learning lab is not only useful for youth, but to create awareness among adults, parents,
women (who are genetically in disadvantage to drink, or at least the impact is higer than in a
man, because they take more time to recover from a binge).
When a person is already sick of alcoholism, and magically recovers from a binge, this is just an
appearance, becasue the damage is terrible to the liver and kidneys which are the organs that
release the alcohol out the body. Also the impact in the organs for an individual with diabetes
must be horrible when they dare to drink alcohol of any kind. The desire to drink is removed
only knowing the terrible consequences at studying cases like those presented in this lab.
If we start thinking in the high social and public health costs that we’re paying, given the
secondary consequences of the accidents casued by drunk individuals, we realice how
important it is to make available this kind of lab to all the people, making them accesible by
the internet. This is an important key.
Of course, this problem is also part of schools of higher education. In recent years, it’s scary
what we see in the bars, women participate in high consumption of alcohol, they mix all kind
of drinks so easily without thinking the consequences, and possibly without being concious
about the personal and colateral damage it could cause.
Summarizing, we can say that drinking alcohol excesively, provoques a health public problem.
The education, using pratical methods that involve all, could give the tools for a better
defense. The systemic thinking, applied to the understanding of economic, social and
ecological problems, brings an open door of hope to develop our analysis, synthesis and
evaluation skills, and also improves our emocional and social abilities of self-awareness, self-
management, social awareness and relationship management.
25
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
Apendix “A” BAC Model documentation.
BAC Full model.
Grane of Acahal Kinet Wins tailing Ec Fad Foca Wy wet Kyeolbe Pocanaae — Gogn SAO Lal
a 2 see = meer O
fy oy: pa ) if \
ao Ag C }+< QO weight Sp = USA BAC legal
{ )
a yO OX erty 7 ‘ Timit to dive
Beverages per Grams ff Alcohol Ons ret Ne tals 7
ey agains be y Bache tin)
Bs we? liquid is possible
e= me Rees! Heels an)
acuaae Jee Sn 6
per min 2 beverage 1 Hours danking 1 —" BAC cals Vd Ng Kind of
Cet ¢
{ ( ~~ if
ye, mee s ‘Amount of Alcohol Alcohol } Percentage ere
firs hanksnness mr stomach inbody
rinking 2 oe J 1 ia ad rm the dank:
Li | x Kind of | 7
one La LT Festa soreage |
mipee | Cc a ("you
read ane" ol
} ieaaier
hoe er aie
recor [Tlsranes to
O ina a ae BY a
Danks ht i
ino = wasee / ty = rad
OS) vighantes PS) eck cttdeence Vex
© ae. C5 (inva
Ken of Game of sleohol Danks grams 7 nina
senda pee “ollemegge i=) Alcohols
BAC It BAC Poesia BAC Possible QO
eae death
to dive
BAC Possible BAC death
death
BAC Model equations.
Alcohol_in_body(t) = Alcohol_in_body(t - dt) + (Absorbed_quantity - Eliminated_quantity) * dt
INIT Alcohol_in_body =0 {gr}
INFLOWS:
Absorbed_quantity = Amount_of_Alcohol_in_stomach*Absorption_rate {gr/min}
OUTFLOWS:
Eliminated_quantity = Vd*Elimination_rate {gr/min}
Amount_of_Alcohol_in_stomach(t) = Amount_of_Alcohol_in_stomach(t - dt) + (Drinking__ Alcohol -
Absorbed_quantity) * dt
INIT Amount_of_Alcohol_in_stomach =0 {gr}
INFLOWS:
Drinking__Alcohol = Drunkenness_1+Drunkenness_2 {gr/min}
OUTFLOWS:
Absorbed_quantity = Amount_of_Alcohol_in_stomach*Absorption_rate {gr/min}
Absorption_rate = LOGN(2)/Current_half_life {1/min}
Alcoholics = 0.8
BAC = BAC_calc*100
BAC_calc = Alcohol_in_body/Vd_ {gr/decilitros}
BAC_death = BAC_Possible_death*100
BAC_drive = BAC_limit_to_drive*100
BAC_faint = BAC_Possible_faint*100
BAC_limit_to_drive = 0.08 {g/dl}
BAC_Possible_death = 0.45 {g/dl}
BAC_Possible_faint = 0.3 {g/dl}
BAC_where_death_is_possibe = 0.45 {g/dl}
BAC_where_faint__is_possible = 0.3 {g/dl}
Beverages_per__hour_2 = 3 {Bebidas/Hora}
Current_half_life = Normal_half_life*Effect_of_food_in_the_stomach
Drinker_type = 2
Drinks_grams_of_alcohol[Cerveza] = 13.6
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SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
Drinks_grams_of_alcohol[Champafia] = 13.6
Drinks_grams_of_alcohol[Vino] = 13.6
Drinks_grams_of_alcohol[Whisky] = 13.6 {Gramos/Bebida}
Drinks_per_hour = 3 {Bebidas/Hora}
Drunkenness_1 = step(Grams_of_alcohol_per_min,0) + step(-
Grams_of_alcohol_per_min,Hours_drinking_1*60) {gr/min}
Drunkenness_2 = if OK_2=1 then Step(Grams_of_alcohol__per_min_2,Hours_drinking_1*60)+ step(-
Grams_of_alcohol__per_min_2,(Hours_drinking_1+Hours_drinking_2)*60)
elseO {gr/min}
Elimination_rate = (BAC_calc*Vmax)/(km+BAC_calc) _{(g*2/dI42/min)/(g/dl) = g/dl/min}
Fool_of_food = 0 {No unidaes}
Gender = 1 {1=hombres, O=mujeres No unidad}
Grams_of_alcohol_per_min = (Drinks_per_hour*Grams_of__alcohol_in_beverage)/60 {Gramos/Minuto}
Grams_of_Alcohol__in_beverages_2[Cerveza] = 13.6
Grams_of_Alcohol__in_beverages_2[Champaiia] = 13.6
Grams_of_Alcohol |_beverages_2[Vino] = 13.6
Grams_of_Alcohol__in_beverages_2[Whisky] = 13.6 {Gramos/Bebida}
Grams_of_Alcohol \_beverage_2 = if Kind_of__beverage_2=1 then
Grams_of_Alcohol__in_beverages_2[Cerveza] {Gramos/Bebida}
else if Kind_of__beverage_2=2 then Grams_of_Alcohol__in_beverages_2[Champafia]
else if Kind_of__beverage_2= 3 then Grams_of_Alcohol__in_beverages_2[Vino]
else if Kind_of__beverage_2=4 then Grams_of_Alcohol__in_beverages_2[Whisky]
else Grams_of_Alcohol__in_beverages_2[Cerveza]
Grams_of_alcohol__per_min_2 = (Beverages_per__hour_2*Grams_of_Alcohol__in_beverage_2)/60
{Gramos/Minuto}
Grams_of__alcohol_in_beverage = if Kind_of_beverage_1=1 then Drinks_grams_of_alcohol[Cerveza]
{Gramos/Bebida}
else if Kind_of_beverage_1=2 then Drinks_grams_of_alcohol[Champajia]
else if Kind_of_beverage_1= 3 then Drinks_grams_of_alcohol[Vino]
else if Kind_of_beverage_1=4 then Drinks_grams_of_alcohol[Whisky]
else Drinks_grams_of_alcohol[Cerveza]
Half_life1 = if Kind_of_beverage_1=1 then Half_life_of_the_drinks[Cerveza] {Min}
else if Kind_of_beverage_1=2 then Half_life_of_the_drinks[Champafia]
else if Kind_of_beverage_1=3 then Half_life_of_the_drinks[Vino]
else if Kind_of_beverage_1=4 then Half_life_of_the_drinks[Whisky]
else Half_life_of_the_drinks[Cerveza]
Half_life_2 = if Kind_of__beverage_2=1 then Half_life_of_the_drinks[Cerveza] {Min}
else if Kind_of__beverage_2=2 then Half_life_of_the_drinks[Champafia]
else if Kind_of__beverage_2=3 then Half_life_of_the_drinks[Vino]
else if Kind_of__beverage_2=4 then Half_life_of_the_drinks[Whisky]
else Half_life_of_the_drinks[Cerveza]
Half_life_of_the_drinks[Cerveza] = 10 {Min}
Half_life_of_the_drinks[Champaiia] = 5 {Min}
Half_life_of_the_drinks[Vino] = 20 {Min}
Half_life_of_the_drinks[Whisky] = 10 {Mjn}
Hours_drinking_1 = 2 {Horas}
Hours_drinking_2 = 2 {Horas}
Kgs_o_Lbs = 1 {kg=1, Ibs=O}
Kind_of_beverage = if OK_2=1 then
if time<=Hours_drinking_1 then Kind_of_beverage_1
else Kind_of__beverage_2
else Kind_of_beverage_1
Kind_of_beverage_1 = 1 {No unidades}
Kind_of__beverage_2 = 1 {No unidades}
km = 0.01 {g/dl}
Moderate_high_drinker = 0.5
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SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
Moderate_low_drinker = 0.20
My_weight = 70 {Kg}
Normal_half_life = if Kind_of_beverage=1 then Half_life_of_the_drinks[Cerveza] {Min}
else if Kind_of_beverage=2 then Half_life_of_the_drinks[Champajia]
else if Kind_of_beverage=3 then Half_life_of_the_drinks[Vino]
else if Kind_of_beverage=4 then Half_life_of_the_drinks[Whisky]
else Half_life_of_the_drinks[Cerveza]
OK_2 = 0 {No unidades}
Oregon_BAC_Legal_limit_to_drive = 0.08 {g/dl}
Percentage_in_man = 0.68 {No unidad}
Percentage_in_woman = 0.55 {No unidad}
Percentage_of_liquid = if Gender=1 then Percentage_in_man
else Percentage_in_woman {No unidad}
rookie__drinker = 0
Tolerance_to_alcohol = if Drinker_type=1 then rookie__drinker
else if Drinker_type=2 then Moderate_low_drinker
else if Drinker_type=3 then Moderate_high_drinker
else Alcoholics
USA_BAC_legal__limit_to_drive = 0.1 {g/dl}
Vd = Weight_of_body*Percentage_of_liquid*10 {Decilitros}
Vmax = Effect_of_tolerance_in_Vmax/60 {gr/dl/min}
Weight_of_body = if Kgs_o_Lbs=1 then My_weight else My_weight/2.204 {kg}
Effect_of_food_in_the_stomach = GRAPH(Fool_of_food {No unidades})
(0.00, 1.00), (0.1, 1.10), (0.2, 1.20), (0.3, 1.30), (0.4, 1.40), (0.5, 1.50), (0.6, 1.60), (0.7, 1.70), (0.8, 1.80),
(0.9, 1.90), (1, 2.00)
Effect_of_tolerance_in_Vmax = GRAPH(Tolerance_to_alcohol {No unidades})(0.00, 0.01), (0.1, 0.012),
(0.2, 0.015), (0.3, 0.017), (0.4, 0.02), (0.5, 0.023), (0.6, 0.025), (0.7, 0.028), (0.8, 0.03), (0.9, 0.033), (1,
0.035)
Data specification for the run of the simulator.
Fron 0 to 900, DT=0.1, integration method Runge-Kutta 4, unit of time = Other (minutes), Run
mode = normal, Interaction mode = normal, Sim Speed = 0, Pause interval = INF.
Bibliography
Alcohol in Your Body [Publicacién periddica] / aut. Dance Rosalie A. y Sandefur James T.. -
1998.
How Long Does It Take To Get Drunk? [En linea] / aut. Johnson Nicole y Ha Mon.
Lecci en dticas un enfe dinamico [Libro] / aut. Fisher Diana M.. - [s.I.] : Stella
Software, 2008. - Vol. Guia Docente.
Meets the Market [Informe] / aut. Michaelis-Menton. - 1999.
Students Taking a Systems Approach to Drinking and Driving [Publicacién periddica] / aut.
Yerger Stephany. - 1999. - La Salle High School Milwaukie, Oregon.
System Dynamics Models Created by High School Students [Publicacién periddica] / aut.
Fisher Diana M.. - Portland, Oregon USA: [s.n.], 2000.
28
SYSTEMIC THINKING
Alcohol learning la
Systems thinking and system dinamics in the CC-Stadus High School project (How High
School students become system thinkers) [Publicacién periddica] / aut. Fisher Diana y Guthrie
Scott.
Modeling Dynamic Systems [Book] / auth. Diana and Fisher Diana M.. - [s.I.] : STELLA, 2007.
Sahel: Modelando un estilo de vida sustentable [Journal] / auth. Almaguer Prado Pedro D.
and Almaguer N. Ruth R.. - Monterrey N.L. : [s.n.], 2009.
Author and collaborators data:
Autor’s Name: Almaguer Prado, Pedro Dagoberto
Place of birth: MUzquiz, Coahuila, México.
Education: Ingeniero Quimico y de Sistemas (ITESM) 1980
(Chemical Engineering and Systems)
Professor: As student he taught Mathematics at a professional level in
the Mathematics Department of ITESM 1979-1980. Professor of
Chemical Engineering Department of ITESM 1980-1985.
I http://(www.gruposinapsys.com
E-mail: pedrodago@ gmail.com
Collaborator: Pedro Dagoberto Almaguer Navarro
Education: Licenciado en Mercadotecnia (Degree in Marketing)
Email: pan.dago82@gmail.com
Modeling: Ramiro Luis Almaguer Navarro
Education: Licenciado en Administracién de Empresas (Degree in Business
Administration)
Email: rmalmaguer@gmail.com
Design: Ruth Raquel Almaguer Navarro
Education: Disefio Grafico (Graphic Design)
Email: ruth_ran@hotmail.com
Spam ry
Collaborator: Beatriz Eugenia Navarro Vazquez
Education: Licenciado en Comercio Internacional (Degree in International
Trade) Email: bety.5505@gmail.com
29
