a
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ISINAPSYS
[ Organizacién que Aprende [
Sahel Learning Lab.
Published for:
The 32nd International Conference of the System Dynamics
Society, Delft, Netherlands
July 20 — July 24, 2014
Good Governance in a Complex World
AUTHORS
Pedro Dagoberto Almaguer Prado pedrodago@gmail.com Author
Beatriz Eugenia Navarro Vazquez bety.5505@gmail.com Collaborator
Ruth Raquel Almaguer Navarro ruth_ran@hotmail.com Design
Ramiro Luis Almaguer Navarro rmalmaguer@gmail.com Modeling
Pedro Dagoberto Almaguer Navarro pan.dago82@gmail.com Collaborator
March 12, 2014
Objective:
In this occasion we’ll examine a fragil and desert ecosystem called the SAHEL at the North of
Africa, under Sahara’s desert. Where in the recent 50 years an unusual drought has caused
famine, poverty and death in the population. Even though there have been well-intentioned
efforts from global organizations as the UN, to support, with strategies for change, the
improvement of the quality and life expectancy for people, very little has been achieved and
the results have collapsed in a few years. Any change in any part of the system, wether applied
to pumping waters from wells, health campaigns for population, the genetic improvement of
animals to increase the food production, or to improve the field productivity, almost
immediately affects on another part of the system and the cause-effect cycles of negative
balance settle the system, where is very complex to overcome the constrains imposed by the
environment. In this activity, the student will learn to model complex ecosystems, where any
improvement strategy to implement in one of its parts, affects all simultaneously. As their
main goal, they’ll look for achieving a long-term sustainability in the ecosystem, where the
economic, social and ecological goes together.
Keywords - Learning Labs, Social Science, Environment, Simulation, sustainability
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Contents
Objective: (0)
Introduction 3
Modeling a sustainable lifestyle for the Sahel. 3
Expected behavior of subsystems from the Sahel. 7
Steps for the development of learning jab. 7
Sahel — System Modules 8
Development model step by step. 8
Modeling a sustainable lifestyle. 8
SAHEL — Its written and video history. 9
The population module. 9
Module for the animals. 16
Module for vegetation. 19
Module for the water. 22
Sahel learning lab 25
Simulation — Directions 25
Policies 6, 9 ,10 and 11, pumping and use of animals, plants and people consumption ....... 26
Effect of the policy of pumping in water supply 26
Comments 27
Conclusion 27
Apendix “A” Simple model of diversification of the economy in the rural areas. 8
Bibliography 29
Author’s and collaborator’s data: ............000+ iError! Marcador no definido.
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Tabla de ilustraciones
Illustration 1: Map of the Sahel at the Northern Africa. 3
Illustration 2: Map of the Sahel at the Northern Africa. Some scientists include Eritrea as part
of the Sahel. 3
Illustration 3: Near the village of Ndiagene Wolof in Senegal at the Sahel...........ccseseseeesseneeees 3
Illustration 4: Livestock concentrated around a waterhole, near to Bamako, Mali, Africa..........3
Illustration 5: Variations of rainfall in the African Sahel from 1901 to 1997, expressed as a
standard deviation of the regional average (Calculated as the long-term average, divided by
the standard deviation) (from Nicholson et al., 2000). Notice the low average of rainfall from
1960 to the 1990 decade. (1980 was the driest decade of the 20th century). ..
Illustration 6: Changes in Sahel’s precipitation are forced by the temperature changes of the
surface of the sea in the Gulf of Guinea. The answer has been amplified by the feedback cycles
of land-environment from the Sahel, shown in Ilustration 4 5
Illustration 7: Area devoted to crops in the Sahel since 1960. The need to grow more crops,
both for export and for local use, has led to expansion of agriculture into areas poorly suited
for crops, leading to land degradation in dry years. 6
Illustration 8: Expected behavior of subsystems from the Sahel. (Water, vegetation, animals
and people.) 7
Illustration 9: Steps for the development of learning laboratories and their results...........00 7
Illustration 10: A simple model of diversification of the economy in the rural households.
(adapted from Mortimore & Williams, 1999) 28
Illustration 11: Feedback cycles Land-Environment that amplify the climate change in the Sahel
28
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Introduction
Modeling a sustainable lifestyle for the Sahel.
Catastrophe in the Sahel, originated from a well-intentioned intervention.
The Sahel is relatively a narrow strip of land that runs across the Northern Africa, just below
the great desert of Sahara. The Sahel has been the home of nomadic people for centuries. It
has never been easy to live in the vicinity of the precarious balance of the Sahel, but the
nomadic people has survived surprisingly well. They lived with their herds of small number of
animals, which kept them moving from one place to another looking for pastures. The nomads
knew when an oasis was ready to enter and exit. They also knew that excesive shepherding
will increase the regeneration time the pasture takes and that if they didn’t respect it their
animals could die of starvation. All these skills have been dominated over the years, maybe
through trial and error, giving place to a deep knowledge of this environment where nomads
lived.
Illustration 1: Map of the Sahel at the Illustration 2: Map of the Sahel at the Northern Africa.
Northern Africa. Some scientists include Eritrea as part of the Sahel.
In many ways, the nomads thrived through caring and respecting the environment. Due to the
limited amount of available grass, the herds have never been very large, and since people lived
from their herds, through the direct consumption of their milk products to obtain cash and buy
other necessities of life, the human population has remained fairly small.
The infant mortality was high and the average expectative of life was low in the conditions of
this hostil desert. There are also evidences of the practice of primitive forms of family
planning, through the use of certain herbs and the nomadic lifestyle to create low-fertility
rates.
Illustration 3: Near the village of Ndi: Wolof ‘ion 4: Livestock around a
in Senegal at the Sahel. waterhole, near to Bamako, Mali, Africa.
The area receives a few inches of rain each year. Some of the runoffs were stored in surface
ponds that provide water for the maintenance of the herds and human consumption. The rest
3
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
of the water runoff seep into the ground or is used directly for the irrigation of the oasis. Some
of the groundwater was extracted using water pumps of shallow wells, which usually dried
after some use. In long-term, the water consumption and its runoff must operate in a balanced
way.
S.E. NICHOLSON AND J.P. GRIST
1 L,
1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Illustration 5: Variations of rainfall in the African Sahel from 1901 to 1997, expressed as a standard
deviation of the regional average (Calculated as the long-term average, divided by the standard
deviation) (from Nicholson et al., 2000). Notice the low average of rainfall from 1960 to the 1990
decade. (1980 was the driest decade of the 20th century).
A few decades ago, the people from around the world, working for other organizations as the
United Nations (UN), decided to act for improving the quality of nomadic life from the Sahel.
Three important things were made:
1. In first place the modern medicine was introduced. Nomads were vaccinated against
smallpox and measles. Also malaria and sleeping sickness were put under control.
These measures increased the life expectancy of people considerably.
2. The diseases of animals were also controled and genetic improvements were
introduced in the herds to increase the milk production, its reproductive rate and meat
production.
3. In third place, deep wells were dug to carry the pumped water through large pumps
for filling the storage tanks from the surface. It increased the capacity of generating
more vegetation and the water availability to increase the maintenance of larger
livestock herds, achieving a higher productivity that influenced in the change of the
nomads’ lifestyle. Many people abandoned the nomadic life and settled with their
herds of animals in the settlements built around the groundwater-fed areas.
Unfortunately, the delicate balance of the desert couldn’t support this new lifestile. After
sometime the deep wells began to dry and the vegetation started to disappear. It starved to
death the herds, removing from people the only way to survive. This area is facing misery and
continuous hunger. The United Nations (UN) and other organizations keep helping, but hunger
stay the same. It seems no hope of improving the pathetic conditions for people from the
Sahel.
Human Dimensions of Sahel Land Degradation
The drying of the Sahel in the late 20th century caused widespread famine that attracted
world-wide attention, including the United Nations Conference on Desertification (UNCOD) in
Nairobi, Kenya in 1977, the 1993 Convention to Combat Desertification, the 2006 International
Year of the Desert and Desertification, and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
The studies show that climate change strongly influences the Sahel in recent decades, but it is
only part of the story:
Changes |.
inSST 7,
T
Monsoon
circulation weaker
ees Dec10252
water input ]___ [rer
Cooler Higher | ~ Vegetaton
ITCZ shifts
south
Illustration 6: Changes in Sahel’s precipitation are forced by the temperature changes of the surface of
the sea in the Gulf of Guinea. The answer has been amplified by the feedback cycles of land-
environment from the Sahel, shown in Illustration 4.
Rainfall variability is a major driver of vulnerability in the Sahel. However, blaming the
“environmental crisis’ on low and irregular annual rainfall alone would amount to a sheer
oversimplification and mi: ing of the Sahelian dynamics. Climate is nothing but one
element in a complex combination of processes that has made agriculture and livestock
farming highly unproductive. Over the last half century, the combined effects of population
growth, land degradation (deforestation, continuous cropping and overgrazing), reduced and
erratic rainfall, lack of coherent environmental policies and misplaced development priorities,
have contributed to transform a large proportion of the Sahel into barren land, resulting in the
deterioration of the soil and water resources.
From United Nations Environmental Program, World Agroforestry Center. Climate Change and
Variability in the Sahel Region: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in the Agricultural Sector.
The human influences include:
1. Population increase. Population is doubling every 20 years. The growth rate of
population (3% per year) exceeds the growth rate of food production (2% per year).
The total population is around 260,000,000 people.
2. Poverty. Per capita income varies from $500/year in Burkina Faso to $1,000/year in
Mali to $2,000/year in Nigeria. In contrast, the per capita income in France, German,
and the UK is about $35,000/year. All are estimates for 2007. The area includes three
of the four poorest countries on earth.
3. Over grazing, poor farming methods, and use of trees and vegetation for firewood.
Overgrazing and poor agricultural practices lead to soil erosion, further degrading the
land.
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
The traditional Parkland system (integrated crop-tree-livestock systems), which is the
predominant land use system and the main provider of food, nutrition, income, and
environmental services, is rapidly degrading—woody biodiversity and cover is being
lost, and soil fertility is declining from already low levels through exhaustive cropping
practices and soil erosion.
From West Africa Drylands Project.
Harvested area (10*ha)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Illustration 7: Area devoted to crops in the Sahel since 1960. The need to grow more crops, both for
export and for local use, has led to expansion of agriculture into areas poorly suited for crops, leading
to land degradation in dry years.
From United Nations Environmental Program, World Agroforestry Center. Climate
Change and Variability in the Sahel Region: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in the
Agricultural Sector.
4. Colonial Influence. The Sahel was divided into countries by European nations. The
boarders were set by political processes that mostly ignored the local people and their
use of the land. The new countries began to enforce boundaries limiting the ability of
nomads to move their herds in response to changing rain, from dry to wet areas. As a
result, nomads were forced into villages, and in dry years their herds overgrazed the
area around villages and cities.
Unfortunately, this film of well-intentioned interventions in the environment and _ its
interaction with the different cause-effect cycles in various regions of world, continue again
and again so often with disastrous results.
| was born and growth up in the Northeastern Mexico in a small city called Melchor Muzquiz in
the center of Coahuila State. At present | live in Monterrey, the capital of the neighboring State
called Nuevo Leon with a similar weather as Muzquiz, with low annual rainfall, semi-desert
with sparse vegetation and a similar panorama as the Sahel, although not that extreme. Life
here isn’t nomadic, even though the connection of water cycles, the growth of pastures for
animal feeding, the use of milk products and the improvement of the human welfare, follow
similar patterns as the Sahel. Hence the need of creating a simulation model that help us to
generate new policies to develop a long-term sustainable life in harmony with the
environment and its underlying cause-effect cycles. In Nuevo Leon is common to see the herds
of goats in field. Cabrito is a typical dish with international fame, so it’s very important to help
improving the financial outcome of its producers and the management of the ranches in
harmony with nature.
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Expected behavior of subsystems from the Sahel.
water vegetation —_ animals people
time >
8: behavior of from the Sahel. (Water, vegetation, animals and
people.)
Steps for the development of learning jab.
Step4 Step5 step6
Step1 ae ait Developing implement
p Description Step3 2 i ip
Describe ies Simulate alternative learning lab chaiecsin
The policies to educate 1icesbad
And rate FOUCRS ary
system . and and en ee
ets structures debate
viet =e
Illustration 9: Steps for the of learning ‘ies and their results.
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Sahel - System Modules
Animals
bs
)
Note: You can review the material support to view the module details.
Development model step by step.
Modeling a sustainable lifestyle.
In this occasion, we’ve developed a complete bussiness game to solve the Sael’s Model, where
step by step we'll explain the pieces involved:
1. Its cause-effect cycles that links its modules.
2. Each module is in detail explained how was modeled.
3. There have been created 11 new policies that affect the behavior of each module and
all the system in consequence, among wich are the following:
a. Policies to improve the quality and life expectancy of the population.
b. Genetic improvement of the animal herds to increase their reproduction, their
milk products and their meat.
c. New policies in the management of pastures to improve their productivity and
its regeneration time.
d. Policies and procedures to improve the use and explotation of water.
4. Each data involved (3), can be modified to visualize its impact on time for each
decision taken.
5. Variables that calculate the percentage of pasture, water and all the system supplies
have been created for the modules that run the vegetation and water.
6. Through the simulation of the complete system, the impact our decisions have on time
can be seen, each of the policies can be implemented separately or combined.
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
SAHEL - Its written and video history.
4 'sinapsys: [Organizacion que Aprende] ©
Population Animals Vegetation Water Simulation
The Sahel History
4.-Introduct
Countries thatconfomit | | 6 uN
S-Life style Z.-Human castastrofy
4 life 8.-History repeats
The Sahel Videos
‘-Wheather change 5. Pictures and Music
2. Countries that conform 6.Views
3. Fundation Juan Pablo T-Sahara.Sahel
‘gation ‘2 Waterand Soll
UNIEMPRENDEDORES: Vsin Estrada Sista
The population module.
4 'sinapsys: [Organizacion que Aprende] ©
Animals Vegetation Water 7 Simulation
Module
ee Policies to improve the quality and expectancy of
life of Population
In first place modern medicine was introduced. The nomads were
vaccinated against smallpox and measiess. Also malaria and sleep illness
were under control. These preventive actions increased the expectancy
of life in people considerably.
Poley 2: To improve the expectancy fife of people
| [2s .
| lifetime [5
|[Poputation.time po 2 [2 2
Effect ofthe beef production and Effect ofthe availability of water,
milk products, in rates of inrates of:
(Births: and Death) (Births = and Death)
yz Ed
UNIEMPRENDEDORES: Vision Estatéglea Sistémicy
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Systemic dynamics of the population growht.
Births Death
: Dynamics of population growth:
Two policies have been
Pare developed to improve the quality
Cc trate g wurrent rate expecta bras
“of bith 5 of death on hove 1
1. Policy to improve the birth rate.
2. Policy to improve the life
expectancy.
Increase of the
. Time
Increase in rate ¢
prea Prot life time
Normal rate il P Policy 1 “ Normal
sheet Normal rate F Normal witty
in birth expectancy of LF
of life
The normal rate of births and deaths, can be modified by the effects of food availability from
animal products or from the water.
Effect of food production from animal herds in the quality of life and the population
growth.
Food production effect in
the life expectancy and
Population growth.
Ceracan | T production of i
products and beef, affect
the birth rate and the life
expectancy of population.
Animals.Total amount food
produced from
cows
Effect of food Radius food _EEffect of food in
in births per capita the rate of death
inreaseinvte >) \ Cams Tine
of birth - pol2
Increase of the
lifetime
Normal rat Policy 1 Policy 2 ore Normal
pena CO Normal rate = Normal atiactany
in birth expectancy of LF
of life
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Graph of the effect of the food produced in the newborn.
Lonel tocin _
2000 «f Eee : Radius food per Effect of food in
sabe capita births
Effect of
food in
Radius_food_per_capita Data Points: n
Edit Dutput:
(Delete Graph] [Caneel] [0K]
If the radius of food per capita is greater than 1 the birth rate rises, if is less than 1 decreases.
Graph of the food effect produced in the death rate.
Aowtannn a eee
10.00 Radius food per Effect af food in
capita the rate of death
\ a oc
0.200 6.150
Effectof poy 0.400 3.700
food in the 0.600 2.300
rate of \ : 0.800 7.550
pial ll PRE TA\ Saanee meciye quan ere Kas Onl
1.200 o.600
1.400 0.500
1.600 0.500
1.800 0.500
a.000 2.000 0.500
—=="9 i
0 0,000 2 C0} |
Radius_food_per_capita Data Points: mg
Edit Output: |
|
{Delete Graph Cancel | | OK. |
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Effect of water availability in the quality of life and the population growth.
Effect of available water Radius water Effect of available water
in the rate of births per capita in the rate of death
Effect of availability of
Wisin sc “water in the quality of life
capita al
begining and growth of population.
he water fas a key 108 fo |
_ improve or worsen both the
birth rate and the life
Current rate
of birth
Ss, Current rate
of death
Animals. Total amount food
produced from
cows
Effect of food Radius food —_Efffect of food in
in births percapita the rate of death
a Time Tae Increase of the
Pol 1 pol 2
me life time
Policy 2 Normal
Norma at O tomate Policy 1 Policy ore wnectcy
of LF
expectancy
of life
Graph of the effect of available water in the birth rate.
ion 7
(5) Graphical Function mes
2000 : Effect of available
2 Reduy goer water in the rate of
Pes conta births
o.000 0.000
Foe 0.200 0.090
; 0.400 0.240
toad 0.600 0.443
visas 0.800 0.698
rate of baths 1.000 1.000
1,200 1.320
| : 1.400 1.580
i 1.600 1.780
| an : ee 7.800 1.310
ee — 2.000 2.000
|
0,000 P 4
Radius_water_per_capita Data Points: an |
Edit Dutput: "7 |
.
| Delete Graph | | Cancel] [0K | |)
i
=
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Graph of the effect of available water in the death rate.
cml
i Effect of available
Sy a water in the rate of
0.000 10.00
0.200 6.150
0.400 3.700
0.600 2.300
0.800 71.550.
1.000 1.000
1.200 0.600
1.400 0.500
1.600 0.500
1.800 0.500
2.000 0.500
=|
[2.000] - 2,
Radius_water_pet_capita Data Points: ah)
Edit Qutput:
[i DaleteGrephy | [Caneel] [__oK |]
Complete model for the population dynamics.
Effect of available water Radius water Effect of available water
in the rate of births per capita in the rate of death
0 O
Wale Der Water. Water in
capita at civiliss
begining
Water
per capita
Births
‘Current rate
of death
Food
per capita
Current rate
of birth
Animals. Total amount foo:
produced from
cows
per capita
at beginin,
Effect of food Radius food Effect of food in
in births per capita the rate of death
Increase of the
i Time Time
meee i rate ¢ ) ee Pa fe Hapa
Normal rate ee) Policy1 Policy 2 Normal
of birth Normal rate Normal expectancy
in birth expectancy of LF
of life
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Here, all the elements involved in the population module, are shown:
1. The policy of disease prevention, such as vaccines to improve the birth rates and life
expectancy.
2. The effect of food production on the birth and death rates of people.
3. The effect of water availability on the population growth and, their quality and life
expectancy.
4. The graphs of the non-linear effects of the availability of food and water in birth rates
and population expectancy of life.
5. The relationship cause-effect of the population with the modules of animals (Total
amount of food produced by cows) and water availability (water in the ponds).
6. Among the policies implemented to increase the birth rates and decrease the death
rates, the data about the expectancy of improvement in mentioned rates with the
health campaigns implemented, are recorded. It’s clear that this will happen if the
availability of food, water and monetary wealth of milk products generated for sale in
the market and their own consmption, are also implemented.
Equations of the population model.
Population(t) = Population(t - dt) + (Births - Death) * dt
INIT Population = 100
INFLOWS:
Births = Population*Current_rate_of_birth
OUTFLOWS:
Death = Population*Current_rate__of_death
Current_rate_of_birth =
Normal_rate_in_birth*Effect_of_food_in_births*Effect_of_available_water_in_the_rate_of_births
Current_rate__of_death =
(1.0/Normal_expectancy_of_life)*Effect_of_food_in_the_rate_of_death*Effect_of_available_wat
er_in_the_rate_of_death
Food_per_capita = Animals.Total_amount_food_produced_from_cows/MAX(0.001,Population)
Food_per_capita_at_begining = Init(Food_per_capita)
Increase_in_rate_of_birth = 0.02
Increase_of_the__life_time = 15
Normal_expectancy_of_LF = 25
Normal_expectancy_of_life = if (Policy_2=1) then
Normal_expectancy_of_LF+STEP(Increase_of_the__life_time,Time_pol_2) else
Normal_expectancy_of_LF
Normal_rate_in_birth = if (Policy_1=1) then
Normal_rate_of_birthtNORMAL(1,.2)+STEP(Increase_in_rate_of_birth, Time_Pol_1) else
Normal_rate_of_birth
Normal_rate_of_birth = .04
Policy_1 =0
Policy_2 = 1
Radius_food_per_capita = Food_per_capita/MAX(0.001,Food_per_capita_at_begining)
Radius_water_per_capita = Water_per_capita/MAX(0.001,Water_per_capita_at_begining)
Time_Pol_1=5
Time_pol_2 =2
Water_per_capita = Water.Water_in_tanks/MAX(0.001,Population)
Water_per_capita_at_begining = Init(Water_per_capita)
Effect_of_available_water_in_the_rate_of_births = GRAPH(Radius_water_per_capita)
(0.00, 0.00), (0.2, 0.09), (0.4, 0.24), (0.6, 0.443), (0.8, 0.698), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 1.32), (1.40,
1.58), (1.60, 1.78), (1.80, 1.91), (2.00, 2.00)
Effect_of_available_water_in_the_rate_of_death = GRAPH(Radius_water_per_capita)
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
(0.00, 10.0), (0.2, 6.15), (0.4, 3.70), (0.6, 2.30), (0.8, 1.55), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 0.6), (1.40, 0.5),
(1.60, 0.5), (1.80, 0.5), (2.00, 0.5)
Effect_of_food_in_births = GRAPH(Radius_food_per_capita)
(0.00, 0.00), (0.2, 0.09), (0.4, 0.24), (0.6, 0.443), (0.8, 0.698), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 1.32), (1.40,
4.58), (1.60, 1.78), (1.80, 1.91), (2.00, 2.00)
Effect_of_food_in_the_rate_of_death = GRAPH(Radius_food_per_capita)
(0.00, 10.0), (0.2, 6.15), (0.4, 3.70), (0.6, 2.30), (0.8, 1.55), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 0.6), (1.40, 0.5),
(1.60, 0.5), (1.80, 0.5), (2.00, 0.5)
Other policies and initial data for the population module.
4 Isinapsys: [Organizacion que Aprende] ©
save] Ropu |) imal Vegetation Water simulation
Modula
presentation
Policies to improve the quality and expectancy of
life of Population
In first place modern medicine was introduced. The nomads were
vaccinated against smallpox and measless. Also malaria and sleep iliness
were under control. These preventive actions increased the expectancy
of life in people considerably
[a eaphiehed hear
|__|P! Politica 1:To improve the rate birth of population .
IMB vate 2° Te irsprove turcrpactney af Kao peopl
.
:
Effect ofthe beef production and Effect of the availability of water,
milk products, in rates of: in rates of.
(Bins and—_Death) (iths and Death)
Ea A SZ ¥
UNIEMPRENDEDORES: Vision Estratéaiea Sisisinica
In this population module, we’ve created two policies aimed to:
1. Improve the birth rates.
2. Improve the life expectancy of people.
Both have to do with the health of population, implementing vaccination campaigns to
prevent diseases such as smallpox and measles wich have a strong impact on children, and
others such as malaria, sleeping seeckness, that affect the quality of life and decrease the life
expectancy.
In addition of paying attention to health care issues, there must be attention to other aspects
of the ecosystem, such as:
1. The genetic improvement of animals to enhance its meat production, and also in the
milk products that function as food and also generate incomes to the population.
2. The overexploitation of aquifers, use, storage and purification of water.
3. The productivity of pastures for the animal consumption.
4. The management of pastures to prevent overgrazing.
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Module for the animals.
4 Isinapsys: [Organizacion que Aprende] ©
SAHEL Population nme Vegetation Water Simulation
Policies to improve the genetic of animals and
increase the production of beef and milk products.
‘The illnesses in the animals were also controled and genetic improvements
in the herds were introduced to increase the production of mik product, its
rate of reproduction and production of beef.
Policy 3:To dicrease the waste
Frat cows waste joa .
[Animals FR Decrease of cows waste Jo.02
[Animals Time pol 3 2 =
Effecofwater availabilty, n | | Effectcows per | | Entecin the avatabinty ot pasture,
rates ot capita, in in rates of
(Growth and Death) consumption: (Grown and Dean)
Fe A
Ls
UNIEMPRENDEDORES: Vision Estratéglea Sistémica
Complete model for the animal dynamics.
Effect of grass in Radius pasture Effect of grass
Normal amount meee cows growth per cow in cows waste
of food produced alors
per cow
Policy 7
Time
pol 7
Food produced
Current rate of
FR increase per cow Total amount foot consumption
of cows growth gakeedion FR Decrease of
cows waste
Normal fr of fg "oO Frof
cows growth
cows waste
Available water
per'cow Normal fracti
of cows waste
lormal fraction
of Cows growth — Water.Water in
tanks
Policy 4 ©)
Effect of water in Radius of water Effect of water
Cows growth per cow in Cows waste
Time
Wat
fer per co pol
at begining
Policy 3
| Cows per Radius per Cows Current rate of
: Nsom per capita consumption
Population.Population
Policy 8
Effect cows per capita Normal rate of
in consumption rate consumption
person at begining
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Observations:
The complete model to simulate the dynamics for the animal herds includes:
1. The dynamics for the animals growth.
2. The policies for the genetic improvement of reproduction. The productivity of milk and
meat products, as the reduction of condemned animal material.
The availability effect of water in the dynamics of animal growht.
The availability effect of pasture in the animal growht.
The effect of the cows per capita in the consumption of beef for humans.
The cause effect relationship of the animal herds linked to the vegetation module, the
water availability and the dynamics of population.
7. Among the policies implemented to increase the reproductive rate of cows.
Se ay Pw
Note: You can review the material support to view the module details.
Equations of the model for the animal dynamics.
Cows(t) = Cows(t - dt) + (Growth - Waste - Consumption) * dt
INIT Cows = 100
INFLOWS:
Growth =
(Cows*Normal_fraction_of_Cows_growth*Effect_of_grass_in_cows_growth*Effect_of_water_in_Cows_gro
wth
OUTFLOWS:
Waste =
Cows*Normal_fraction_of_cows_waste*Effect_of_grass_in_cows_waste*Effect_of_water_in_Cows_waste
Consumption = Cows*Current_rate_of_consumption
Available_water_per_cow = Water.Water_in_tanks/Cows
Cows_per_person = Cows/MAX(0.001,Population.Population)
Cows_per_person_at_begining = Init(Cows_per_person)
Current_rate_of_consumption = if (Policy_8=1) then
Normal_rate_of_consumption*Effect__cows_per_capita_in_consumption_rate else 0
Food_produced_per_cow = if (Policy_7=1) then
Normal_amount_of_food_produced_per_cow+STEP((Normal_amount_of_food_produced_per_cow *
Increase_%_food_produced_per_cow), Time_pol_7) else Normal_amount_of_food_produced_per_cow
FR_Decrease_of__cows_waste = 0.02
FR_increase_of_cows_growth = 0.02
Increase_%_food_produced_per_cow = 0.25
Normal_amount_of_food_produced_per_co\ 1
Normal_fraction_of_Cows_growth = if (Policy_4=1) then Normal_fr_of_cows_growth+
step(FR_increase_of_cows_growth,Time_pol_4)+ NORMAL(1,.2) else Normal_fr_of_cows_growth
Normal_fraction_of_cows_waste = if (Policy_3=1) then Normal_Fr_of__cows_waste-
STEP(FR_Decrease_of__cows_waste,Time_pol_3) else Normal_Fr_of__cows_waste
Normal_fr_of_cows_growth = 0.10
Normal_Fr_of__cows_wast 1
Normal_rate_of_consumption = 0.01
Pasture_per_cow = Vegetation.Pasture/Cows
Pasture_per_cow_at_begining = Init(Pasture_per_cow)
0
=0
Radius_of_water_per_cow = Available_water_per_cow/MAX(0.001,Water_per_cow__at_begining)
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Radius_pasture_per_cow = Pasture_per_cow/MAX(0.001,Pasture_per_cow_at_begining)
Radius_per_Cows_per_capita = Cows_per_person/MAX(0.001,Cows_per_person_at_begining)
Time_pol_3 = 2
Time_pol_4 = 2
Time_pol_7 = 2
Total_amount_food_produced_from_cows = Cows*Food_produced_per_cow
Water_per_cow__at_begining = Init(Available_water_per_cow)
Effect_of_grass_in_cows_growth = GRAPH(Radius_pasture_per_cow)
(0.00, 0.00), (0.2, 0.1), (0.4, 0.23), (0.6, 0.4), (0.8, 0.65), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 1.34), (1.40, 1.58), (1.60,
1.75), (1.80, 1.90), (2.00, 2.00)
Effect_of_grass_in_cows_waste = GRAPH(Radius_pasture_per_cow)
(0.00, 10.0), (0.2, 6.40), (0.4, 4.05), (0.6, 2.60), (0.8, 1.70), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 0.75), (1.40, 0.7), (1.60,
0.7), (1.80, 0.7), (2.00, 0.7)
Effect_of_water_in_Cows_growth = GRAPH(Radius_of_water_per_cow)
(0.00, 0.00), (0.2, 0.62), (0.4, 1.00), (0.6, 1.28), (0.8, 1.48), (1.00, 1.64), (1.20, 1.76), (1.40, 1.86), (1.60,
1.93), (1.80, 1.97), (2.00, 2.00)
Effect_of_water_in_Cows_waste = GRAPH(Radius_of_water_per_cow)
(0.00, 10.0), (0.2, 5.50), (0.4, 3.35), (0.6, 2.15), (0.8, 1.45), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 0.8), (1.40, 0.7), (1.60, 0.7),
(1.80, 0.7), (2.00, 0.7)
Effect__cows_per_capita_in_consumption_rate = GRAPH(Radius_per_Cows_per_capita)
(0.00, 0.00), (0.2, 0.1), (0.4, 0.23), (0.6, 0.4), (0.8, 0.65), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 1.34), (1.40, 1.58), (1.60,
1.75), (1.80, 1.90), (2.00, 2.00)
Other policies and inical data for animals module.
In this module for the animal dynamics, we’ve created four policies aimed to:
Reduce condemned animal material.
Improve the animal reproduction.
Improve genetics to increase the food production.
Increase the human consumption of beef.
PO
All of them are involved in the genetic improvement of the animals to increase the productivity
of their products, improve their reproductive capacity and reduce the natural waste.
The 4th policy applies only when there be enough amount of animals per capita in good
conditions, meaning that it’s possible to slaughter animals that aren’t calsified as condemned
animal material.
In addition to pay attention to animal health, other aspects of the ecosystem must be guard,
such as:
1. The water availability in the surface ponds.
2. The quality of produced grass.
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Module for vegetation.
4 Isinepsys: [Organizacién que Aprende] ®
SHEL —|—_—opulation nee | Mesetaion Water Sniatzton
@ \ vegestonPecenege ot passe uey
ro = ee eye
Yess 2H0 PN. Sin, ter o8 2
2 Dear of Sahl
Pasture
pasture i200 -
| Vegetation Incroase in normal capaci of Pasture 5
| | [Yeaetation.Time pols 2 2
ed 7 Ed
Medules
LUNIEMPRENDEDORES: Vision Esuatigtes Sistnica
It’s included the graph of grass supply for the animal feed.
Complete model for the pasture Dynamics.
Animals.Pasture per cow
at begining
Current amount of Pastur Animals.Cows
consumed per cow
Animals.Radius pasture
per cow
Normal amount
of pasture consumed
per cow
sie “sci in
Effect pasture per cow
in its consumption
Time for O
regeneration
On rate of time
Real consumption
of pastures
‘asture for
Possible
consumption
for regeneration
No Pasture
Radius
of pasture
Effect radius of pasture
in time of regeneration
Normal Capacity
of pasture
Radius
available water
for irrigation
Percentage of
pasture supply
Increase in normal
Normal pasture
capacity of Pasture
Effect of available Water
for irrigation
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Observations:
The complete model to simulate the animal herds dynamics, includes:
The pasture’s growth dynamics.
The policy to improve the pasture productivity.
The effect of the pasture availability in the animal consumption.
The effect of the water availability in the pasture production.
The effect of the pasture’s radius (Productivity) in the recovery time that vegetation
URwWNPR
needs.
6. The logic of calculation to determine the supply percentage of pasture (Animal feed) at
all times.
7. The cause-effect relationship between vegetation and the animal modules with water
consumption in the irrigation of pastures.
8. Among the implemented policy to increase the productivity of pastures production,
the data about the increase of production capacity of the normal pasture and the time
it takes to occur, is recorded.
Note: You can review the material support to view the module details.
Equations for the pastures model.
Lack_of__Pasture(t) = Lack_of__Pasture(t - dt) + (No_Pasture) * dt
INIT Lack_of__Pasture = 0
INFLOWS:
No_Pasture = if Pasture_for__consumption>Possible_consumption then Pasture_for__consumption-
Possible_consumption else 0
Pasture(t) = Pasture(t - dt) + (Regeneration - Possible_consumption) * dt
INIT Pasture = 100
INFLOWS:
Regeneration = (Productivity_of_pasture-Pasture)/Time_for_regeneration
OUTFLOWS:
Possible_consumption = if (Pasture>Pasture_for__consumption) then Pasture_for__consumption else
Pasture
Real_consumption_of_pastures(t) = Real_consumption_of_pastures(t - dt) + (Possible_consumption) * dt
INIT Real_consumption_of_pastures = 0
INFLOWS:
Possible_consumption = if (Pasture>Pasture_for__consumption) then Pasture_for__consumption else
Pasture
Available_water_at_begining = Init(Available_Water_for_irrigation)
Available_Water_for_irrigation = Water.Water_in_tanks/MAX(0.001,Pasture)
Current_amount_of_Pasture_consumed_per_cow =
Normal_amount__of_pasture_consumed__per_cow*Effect_pasture_per_cow_in_its_consumption
Increase_in_normal_capacity_of_Pasture = 5
Normal_amount__of_pasture_consumed__per_cow = Animals.Pasture_per_cow_at_begining
Normal_Capacity_of__pasture = 200
Normal_pasture = if (Policy_5=1) then
Normal_Capacity_of__pasturetNORMAL(1,.1)+STEP(Increase_in_normal_capacity_of_Pasture, Time_pol
_5) else Normal_Capacity_of__pasture
Normal_rate_of_time_for_regeneration = 1
20
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Pasture_for__consumption = Animals.Cows*Current_amount_of_Pasture_consumed_per_cow
Percentage_of__pasture_supply = if (Real_consumption_of_pastures+Lack_of__Pasture)=0 then 0 else
Real_consumption_of_pastures/(Real_consumption_of_pastures+Lack_of__Pasture)*100
Policy_5 = 0
Productivity_of_pasture = Normal_pasture*Effect_of_available_Water_for_irrigation
Radius_available_water__for_irrigation =
Available_Water_for_irrigation/MAX(0.001 ,Available_water_at_begining)
Radius_of_pasture = (Pasture/Productivity_of_pasture)*2
Time_for_regeneration =
Normal_rate_of_time_for_regeneration*Effect_radius_of_pasture_in_time_of_regeneration
Time_pol_5 = 2
Effect_of_available_Water_for_irrigation = GRAPH(Radius_available_water__for_irrigation)
(0.00, 0.00), (0.2, 0.338), (0.4, 0.578), (0.6, 0.757), (0.8, 0.892), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 1.08), (1.40, 1.16),
(1.60, 1.22), (1.80, 1.26), (2.00, 1.30)
Effect_pasture_per_cow_in_its_consumption = GRAPH(Animals.Radius_pasture_per_cow)
(0.00, 0.00), (0.2, 0.345), (0.4, 0.593), (0.6, 0.765), (0.8, 0.892), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 1.08), (1.40, 1.16),
(1.60, 1.22), (1.80, 1.26), (2.00, 1.30)
Effect_radius_of_pasture_in_time_of_regeneration = GRAPH(Radius_of_pasture)
(0.00, 10.0), (0.2, 4.75), (0.4, 3.00), (0.6, 1.92), (0.8, 1.40), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 0.75), (1.40, 0.6), (1.60,
0.525), (1.80, 0.5), (2.00, 0.5)
Policies and initial data for the vegetation module.
In this module for the vegetation dynamics, we’ve created a policy aimed at:
1. The improvement of pasture productivity.
This is closely related to the water availability, any strategy to improve the plantation of
grasses, including take a great care of overgrazing, can be implemented, but anyone will work
without water.
Although generally the vegetation is only watered with rainwater, a policy in the water module
has been implemented. This policy establishes that if there is enough water, it can be used
directly from the ponds of the surface to water in times when it doesn’t rain. The result of the
simulation shows us this isn’t a good policy, and this conclusion agrees with the knowledge we
have about the Sael, since 1960 to date, there is a chronic shortage of rainfall. See the chart
below:
S.E. NICHOLSON AND J.P. GRIST
7 aul
1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
21
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Module for the water.
4 |sinapsys: [Organizacion que Aprende] ©
‘SAHEL propulsion. Animals
AL
Policies to manage the water
=e a
El 5 Sa naaaaaR
ry ry wae na
le Yess 1248 PM Sun, Aor 4,209
Naar? Desenof te Sahel
/ irrigate
Vegetation
Policy 10: To regulate the extraction of water from the tanks
=
eae rise of consumption in tanks ie
Water Time Policy 10 a
TNIEMPRENDEDORES, Vision EsvateyicaSsiemin
Complete model for the water dynamics.
Policy 6
Fraction of extraction
of water oO.
Maximum rise
of water extraction
Duration Fraction consumed Maximum tise of
in tanks
policy 6 consumption in tanks
Final minimun of i ea}
water extraction
O Eoariiia Face,
of extraction Policy 10
intanks Real Consumption
of Water
fea
-xtraction
Underground = water
water
Filtrate Extraction by
Pumps Total consumption On
Normal rate of water
nsumed per cow
Animals.Radius of water Effect of water. Current amour a consumption
amount per cow of sa per orueer
for consumption
Population Water per Normal rate of Water
capita “OW eee per capita
begining
Population.Radius water OS, of water per i rate of
per capita
Animals.Water per cow
at begining
Percentage
Lack of
Water
capita for water consumed
consumption —_—_per capita
CH Policy 11
Normal amount Vegetation.Pasture
et for irrigation
Vegetation. Available water
at begining
Vegetation.Radius Effect of available Current amouit——_-—Pasture
available water water for irrigation of water for irrigation water Policy 9
for irrigation irrigation
22
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Observations:
The complete model to simulate the water dynamics includes:
1. The dynamics of the water flow from the rain that falls, it is absorbed by the ground,
then pumped to the ponds of the surface and consumed. The evaporation of a portion
of the rain that falls on the surface, or what evaporates from the ponds in the day, is
not included in the model to simplify it.
2. The policy to pump water from the wells to the ponds.
Policy to increase the water obtained from the ponds.
4. Policies to use the water besides the consumption of the living stock in the irrigated
land and for human consumption.
5. The logic of calculation to determine the percentage of the water supply at all times.
6. The relationship cause-effect of the water supply with modules for animals, vegetation
and human consumption.
Note: You can review the material support to view the module details.
Equations of the water model.
Lack_of__Water(t) = Lack_of__Water(t - dt) + (No_water) * dt
INIT Lack_of__Water = 0
INFLOWS:
No_water = if Total_consumption>Possible_consumption then Total_consumption-Possible_consumption
else 0
Real_Consumption_of_Water(t) = Real_Consumption_of_Water(t - dt) + (Possible_consumption) * dt
INIT Real_Consumption_of_Water = 0
INFLOWS:
Possible_consumption = IF
(Water_in_tanks*Maximum_Fraction_of_extraction_in_tanks>=Total_consumption) then
Total_« 1 else Water_i in_tanks |_ Fraction. |_of_extraction_in_tanks
Underground_water(t) = Underground_water(t - dt) + (Filtrate - Extraction_by_Pumps) * dt
INIT Underground_water = 500
INFLOWS:
Filtrate = Rain
OUTFLOWS:
Extraction_by_Pumps = (Underground_water*Fraction_Extraction_of_water)
Water_in_tanks(t) = Water_in_tanks(t - dt) + (Extraction_by_Pumps - Possible_consumption) * dt
INIT Water_in_tanks = 100
INFLOWS:
Extraction_by_Pumps = (Underground_water*Fraction_Extraction_of_water)
OUTFLOWS:
Possible_consumption = IF
(Water_in_tanks*Maximum_Fraction_of_extraction_in_tanks>=Total_consumption) then
Total_« 1 else Water_in_tank: |_Fraction_of_extraction_in_tanks
Cows_consumption_of_water = Animals.Cows*Current_amount_of_water_consumed_by_cow
Current_amount_of_water_consumed_by_cow =
Normal_rate_of_water_consumed_per_cow*Effect_of_water__amount_per_cow_for_consumption
Current_amount_of_water_for__irrigation =
Normal_amount_water_for_irrigation*Effect_of_available_water_for_irrigation
23
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Current_rate_of__water_consumed_per_capita =
Normal_rate_« of | Water. ‘_consumed_per_capita*Effect_of_water_per_capita_for_consumption
Duration_policy_6 = 18
Final_minimun_of_water_extraction = 0.0
Fraction_consumed_in_tanks = 0.80
Fraction_Extraction_of_water = if (Policy_6=1) then Fraction_of_extraction_of_water+
STEP(Maximum_ rise__of_water_extraction, Time_of_pol_6)-
STEP(Final_minimun. 1_of | water_extraction, Duration |_policy_6+Time_of_pol_6) else
Fraction_of_extraction_of_water
Fraction_of_extraction_of_water = 0.20
Maximum_Fraction_of_extraction_in_tanks = if Policy_10=1 then
if Fraction_consumed_in_tanks+ Maximum_rise_of__consumption_in_tanks>=1 then 1
else Fraction_consumed_in_tanks+ Step(Maximum_rise_of__consumption_in_tanks,
Time_Policy_10)
else Fraction_consumed_in_tanks
Maximum_rise_of__consumption_in_tanks = 0.20
Maximum_rise__of_water_extraction = 0.20
Normal_amount_water_for_irrigation = Vegetation.Available_water_at_begining
Normal_rate_of_Water_consumed_per_capita = Population.Water_per_capita_at_begining
Normal_rate_of_water_consumed_per_cow = Animals.Water_per_cow__at_begining
Pasture_irrigation_water = if (Policy_9=1) then
Vegetation. Pasture*Current_: amount_of_water_for__irrigation else 0
Percentage_Lack_of_Water = if Percentage_Water_supply=0 then 0 else 100-Percentage_Water_supply
Percentage_Water_supply = if (Real_Consumption_of_Water+Lack_of__Water)=0 then 0
else Real_Consumption_of_Water/(Real_Consumption_of_Water+Lack_of__Water)*100
Policy_10 = 1
Policy_11 =1
Policy_6 = 1
Policy_9 = 0.
Population_consumption_of_water = if Policy_11=1 then
Population.Population*Current_rate_of__water_consumed_per_capita else 0
Rain = 100+0*NORMAL(1,.1)
Time_of_pol_6 = 2
Time_Policy_10 = 2
Total_consumption =
Pasture_i irrigation_water+Population_consumption_of_water+Cows_consumption_of_water
Effect_of_available_water_for_irrigation = GRAPH(Vegetation.Radius_available_water__for_irrigation)
(0.00, 0.00), (0.2, 0.27), (0.4, 0.51), (0.6, 0.713), (0.8, 0.87), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 1.10), (1.40, 1.19), (1.60,
1.25), (1.80, 1.28), (2.00, 1.30)
Effect_of_water_per_capita_for_consumption = GRAPH(Population.Radius_water_per_capita)
(0.00, 0.00), (0.2, 0.27), (0.4, 0.51), (0.6, 0.713), (0.8, 0.87), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 1.10), (1.40, 1.19), (1.60,
1.25), (1.80, 1.28), (2.00, 1.30)
Effect_of_water__amount_per_cow_for_consumption = GRAPH(Animals.Radius_of_water_per_cow)
(0.00, 0.00), (0.2, 0.27), (0.4, 0.51), (0.6, 0.713), (0.8, 0.87), (1.00, 1.00), (1.20, 1.10), (1.40, 1.19), (1.60,
1.25), (1.80, 1.28), (2.00, 1.30)
24
Sahel learning lab
é
e
ISINAPSYS
[ Organizacion que Aprende
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
By Ing. Pedro D. Almaguer Prado
March 2010
Collaborators:
Lic. Beatriz E. Navarro Vazquez
Lic. Pedro D. Almaguer Navarro.
Lic. Ramiro L. Almaguer Navarro.
Designed by:
Lic. Ruth R. Almaguer Navarro.
Simulation - Directions
4 'sinapsys: [Organizacion que Aprende] ®
(sass, | ropaton ame | veawtanon —
SsCoso
Implemented to the population. Cl RUN || Baa ston | Reson Run/Red
1 | Rise the birth rate, Directions
2 | Increase the expectancy ofl, ™
nd water 2 Anmale\Cone 4 Pop, Pousti same
implemented to the herds. é es ee A sees
3 | Diminish waste.
4 | Growth of the herd.
7 | lncease the production of Ey
Inciease the consumpti
8 | Inaease the consumption r=]
Implemented to vegetation. J Ayo i
5 | Rise the productivity. | interfere the environment of the Sahel.
Implemented to water. e Ifyou desire, you can select licy separatelly and watch
6 | Increase extraction of wells. ina) your decisions in time, ‘simulating the model.
9 | Irrigation of pastures, You can also mix any leat sot ei Hi sl area oi
10 change oi
_be sustainable in the time.
‘Water for human consumption,
UNIEMPRENDEDORES: Visiin Estratéglea Sistémica
Conclution
25
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Policies 6, 9 ,10 and 11, pumping and use of animals, plants and people
consumption
| Isinapsys: [Organizacion que Aprende] ©
SAHEL | Population Animals Vegetation Water simone
J
9 | Irrigation of pastures,
Implemented to the population. Sc Reraul| Ruw | Pune) ston /Renuwe RuniRed
1 | Risethe birth rate. | =a Directions
2) haenétheemecantyctie> |, EE
@ vege nFestve 2st urawater ZBansaGwe Fens, austen = ele =
Implemented to the herds. ¢ 4 fe _
3 | Diminish waste. | Ea i ie ‘
4 | Growth ofthe herd. |
7 | ingease the productonof | Tey 3 re .
& | Inensethe consumption | ay 7 UE IN
Implemented to vegetation. e \ S.
5 | Risethe productivity, ca 2 2 KN eae
Implemented to water. s ! bers rh rr] 1875, 25
6 | Increase extraction of wells. (ia Kia ae 2 ia Seek ial oil as
ee
al
(=I)
11 | Water for human consumption,
|
|
10 | Increase extraction from pounds.
|
Conelution
UNIEMPRENDEDORES: Vision Estralouiea Sistimisa
Effect of the policy of pumping in water supply
| 'sinapsys: [Organizacion que Aprende] ©
SAHEL Population Animals Vegetation Water
se
Implemented to the population. e Resteaud, Ru" || Pure) Sor | Resuwe! Ruw/Ray
1 | Rise the birth rate, | Directions
2 | Increase the expectancy oflife. |
eo: a Aipgaiaecaagh ea
Implemented to the herds.
2]
3. | Diminish waste.
4 | Growth of the herd.
UHH elHeHHABe
7 | Increase the production of
milk products.
@ | Increase the consumption
9
Implemented to vegetation.
5 | Risethe productivity.
Implemented to water.
1878 2
SOSHAM Fr Mar 14,2014
6 | Increase extraction of wells.
9. | Irrigation of pastures.
10 | Increase extraction from pounds.
11 | Water for human consumption,
Conelution
UNIEMPRENDEDORES: Vision Estinlagiea Siet6ilca
26
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
Comments
| 4 'sinapsys: [Organizacion que Aprende] ©
SAHEL Population Animals Vegetation Water imation
Implemented to the population. e Fresrrauc, Row | Prune) Stee |
1 | Bisethe bith ate i Directions
2_ | Increase the expectancy of lf. El
9
implemented to the herds. é :
EH
3 | Diminish waste. Ea :
4 | Growth of the herd, fal
5 ena —I iis = eee
SS 3 SSS Sw
Unfortunately, the delicate balance of the desert couldnt support this new lifestyle. After sometime the deep wells
began to dry and the vegetation started to disappear. It starved to death the herds, removing from people the only way
to survive. This area is facing misery and continuous hunger. The United Nations (UN) and other organizations keep.
helping, but hunger stay the same. It seems no hope of improving the pathetic conditions for people from the Sahel.
U this film of welLintentioned inthe and its interaction with the different
cause-effect cycles in various regions of world, continue again and again so often with disastrous results.
|
10 | increase extraction fom pounds. | [Ei]
| ]
11 | Waterforhuman consumption. | [ET]
Conelution
UNIEMPRENDEDORES: Visién Eswatdgics Sistémica
Final comments
With the results of the simulation, perhaps we can highlight that in the chronic water shortage,
50 years of low rainfall, virtually, any strategy tray to deploy, will fail if first is not achieved how
to make an efficient water use and consumption.
To take a little care of water, first will have to innovate in awareness campaigns about saving
the vital liquid in the town, to find ways to prevent the evaporation from the ponds, to look for
the storage as much as possible of the rainfalls in tanks. To find better ways to irrigate the
plants through drip, to care the overgrazing to avoid the animals finish vegetation before it can
regenerate. To seeck breeding herds and maximize the quality of its products, to improve the
pasture productivity, and then, all the applied to human beings to improve their quality and
life expectancy.
Conclusion
How stunning case of study, how much complexity, what a fragil ecological balance of the
Sahel and many other desertic zones of the wolrd. Any intervention or strategy applied to the
development of some of its variables, makes a chain reaction to the others and as we could
see, for now, nothing of the applied is sustainable in long-term. It’s necessary to continue
innovating.
It’s important to emphazise the lack of water and drought so prolongued in the recent 50 years
(1960 to 2010), it doesn’t rain and it paralyzes mostly all the changes in the ecosystem. It’s
necessary to invent new exploitation methods to use this vital resource, and specially the
27
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
water storage of rainfall since the moment it falls to keep it in the cisterns built by men. Above
all, the technology needed for the drip to avoid the water evaporation and save the vital liquid
in the irrigation of pasture and plants.
We must mention that there are some interventions of the UN or other international agencies
to assist various regions of the wolrd with very good intentions, they provide proyects with lots
of money and human efforts, but a few years later, everything continuos the same. Only the
effects are under attack, but the real problem is never addressed. As in the Sahel, in a few
years (10 years) the negative cause-effect cycles, cause the necessity of keeping the variables
to a new goal if we don’t implement solutions that support new positive cause-effect cycles to
counteract the negative, hardly the solution will be sustainable in the long-term.
Our mind must be always positive and focused to search the entire ecosystem sustainability.
Although we must bear in mind that any solution or strategy we want to implement, will affect
in some way the economical, social and ecological. The problems will be always complex
because everything goes together and can’t be handled separately. For this cause, the
modeling, the systemic thinking and simulation, are appropriate to review the impact of our
decisions on time, before they are implemented in the real world. It will allow us to study the
possible consequences of our decisions in the long-term.
Apendix “A” Simple model of diversification of the economy in the
rural areas.
@muiy.
activity
mh @
ps Moisture / ® \
/ transfer /
1@® /
Evaporation
BUSINESS
Sr oe
profits
|
Sur Surface
temperatures temperatures
Pat ;
y Reflected
/ \ shade radiation
(albedo),
\ 3} ye
fegelation Cover of
cover biological crust
© 7 xe) A
- ~©)
@ Soil moisture and degradation,
A
Illustration 10: A simple model of di' ificati i 11: cycles Land-
of the economy in the rural households. Environment that amplify the climate change in
(adapted from Mortimore & Williams, 1999) the Sahel
28
SYSTEMIC THINKING
SAHEL - Modeling a sustainable lifestyle
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