Abstract Proceedings, 2005 July 17-2005 July 21

Proceedings of the
23 Intemational Conference

System
Dynamics }
Society gy

July 17- 21, 2005
Boston, USA

Conference Host

System Dynamics Group

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Sloan School of Management
Cambridge, Massachusetts USA

Conference Partner:

Conference proceedings sponsored by: PA Consulting Group
by Cambridge, Massachusetts USA

VENTANA Jom. Stemen

SY StEMS, inc. Nelson P. Repenning
Robin S. Langer
Jennifer I. Rowe
http://www.vensim.com Joan M. Y anni

Proceedings
of the
23™ Intemational Conference
of the
System Dynamics Society

July 17 - 21, 2005
Boston, USA

Edited by:
John D. Sterman, Nelson P. Repenning,
Robin S. Langer, Jennifer I. Rowe and Joan M. Y anni
System
Dynamics
Society

©2005, The System Dynamics Society

ISBN 0-9745329-2-4.

To obtain additional copies of these proceedings, or to learn more about the System Dynamics Society
and the international research conferences, contact:

Roberta L. Spencer, Executive Director

System Dynamics Society

Milne 300 - Rockefeller College

University at Albany, State University of New Y ork
135 Westen Avenue

Albany, New Y ork 12222, United States of America
Phone: + 1.518.442.3865

Fax: + 1.518.442.3398

Email: system.dynamics@ albany.edu

Website: www.systemdynamics.org
Table of Contents

Conference Schedule .....scssssssssssssssessssssssssesssesssssessssssssssesssesssessesssessssssesssssssesee Handout
Organizing Committee and Hosts.. 3
Awards Comimittees ccssissscssissnssiessssnessssossesssssvscsssssnsiessssnesvssasssssissvscssnssnssvssossoace 3
VOUNECERS isissenssasssssnssssssscstissuvecstsenssnscssinoSeécessnsbbsauvecslponssnscusinoseécesscsbusuavessaponssabaose 5
Submission REvicwers wwisssisssssssassssswsvessasesssesseverssncssavorvssvecsssvenaseawsveswsesvsenssuresvsaaave 8
Acknowledgement of Sponsors 14
SpPONSOFS atid EXWIDICORS esse ccsscsrscssvssencavesssaswanesveuesssnsvoncsssnesvonssnssesnsvcnsnssenesusvsseses 16
SD Career Link......ccccsessessesssssssssssssessessessessessssscssssnssssessessessessesseenssncenssnsanssssneaees 35
Dana Meadows Award Endowment Fund Update.........ssssssssssssssssssessssssesssseeee 36
Nijmegen 2006 Conference ANNOUNCEMENL ..........sssssesesseseessessssssessssstssssesessesees 37
Reading Supporting Material.........cssssssssssssssessessssseessssssssssssessessessessessssneenssseanes 38
Abstracts: Listed alphabetically by first author within sections
Papers: Parallel, Poster, Research.... 39
Plenary Sessions, listed chronologically 158
Special and Convened Sessions 164
Workshops 170
Index of Authors 178

Conference Center Floor Plan.....c.ssccssssessessessessessesssssesnsssssssessessessessessees Handout

Organizing Committee

Program Co-chair:

John D. Sterman

System Dynamics Group
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cambridge, Massachusetts USA

Workshop Chair:

Jack B. Homer

Homer Consulting
Voorhees, New Jersey USA

Program Co-chair:

Nelson P. Repenning

System Dynamics Group
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Cambridge, Massachusetts USA

Conference Manager:
Roberta L. Spencer
System Dynamics Society
Albany, New York USA

Host and Partner

Conference Host:

System Dynamics Group
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sloan School of Management
Cambridge, Massachusetts USA

Conference Parner:
PA Consulting Group
Cambridge, Massachusetts USA

Award Committees

2005 Jay W. Forrester Award:
John D. W. Morecroft, Chair
London Business School

David F. Andersen
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
University at Albany

George P. Richardson
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
University at Albany

John D. Sterman
System Dynamics Group
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Jac Vennix
School of Management
Radboud University Nijmegen

2005 Dana Meadows Award:
John D. W. Morecroft, Chair
London Business School

Robert Y. Cavana
Victoria University of Wellington

Andrew Ford
Washington State University

George P. Richardson
Dept of Public Administration & Policy
University at Albany

John D. Sterman
System Dynamics Group
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA

Volunteers

Bahadir Akcam
University at Albany
Student Assistant

Monica A. Altamirano
Delft University of
Technology

Session Reporter

Edward G. Anderson
University of Texas
Stream Organizer

Stefano Armenia
Tor Vergata University Rome
Session Reporter

John A. Barton
John Barton Consulting
Session Reporter

Klaus Breuer
Johannes-Gutenberg-Univ
Mainz

Session Reporter

Ali Afsin Bulbul
Portland State University
Session Reporter

Robert Y. Cavana
Victoria University of
Wellington

Session Reporter

Dean L. Christensen
Cyber Learning Corporation
Conference Photographer

Diana Damyanova
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Student Assistant

Michael A. Deegan
University at Albany
Student Assistant

Vedat G. Diker
University of Maryland
Stream Organizer

Sharon A. Els
PA Consulting Group
Roundtable Chair

David R. Exelby

HVR Consulting Services Ltd
Stream Organizer

Session Reporter

Thomas Fiddaman
Ventana Systems
Stream Organizer

Meg Fryling
University at Albany
Session Reporter

Valerie Gacogne
NESTEAR
Session Reporter

Justus Gallati
Seecon International GmbH
Session Reporter

Andrew Gallerani
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Student Assistant

Shayne Gary
University of New South
Wales

Stream Organizer
Session Reporter

Carmine Garzia
University of Lugano
Session Reporter

Paulo Gongalves
University of Miami
Stream Organizer

Jose J. Gonzalez
Agder University College
Stream Organizer

Andreas GréBler
Mannheim University
Student Assistant

Stefan Grésser
University of Bergen
Session Reporter

Burak Giineralp

Univ of Illinois at Urbana-
Champaign

Session Reporter

John F. Heinbokel
CIESD LLP
Stream Organizer

Gary B. Hirsch
Creator of Learning
Environments
Session Reporter
Volunteer

Jack B. Homer
Homer Consulting
Modelling Assistance
Workshop Organizer
Stream Organizer

Peter S. Hovmand
Washington University in St
Louis

Session Reporter

Karen Jarzynka
University at Albany
Student Assistant

Charles A. Jones
University of Massachusetts
Boston

Student Assistant

23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 ~ 21, 2005, Boston, USA

Volunteers continued

Wouter Jongebreur
Significant BV
Session Reporter

CJ Kalin
University of San Francisco
Session Reporter

Dmitry Katalevsky
University at Albany
Student Assistant

Hyunjung Kim
University at Albany
Session Reporter
Student Assistant

Birgit Kopainsky
Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology

Session Reporter
Volunteer

Charlie Lertpattarapong
MIT
Student Assistant

Corey Lofdahl
SAIC
Session Reporter

Alexander Lubyansky
University at Albany
Training and Educational
Programs Coordinator
Student Assistant

James M. Lyneis
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

CareerLink Bulletin Board

Kambiz E. Maani
University of Auckland
Session Reporter

Roderick H. MacDonald
Initiative for System
Dynamics in the Public Sector
Modelling Assistance
Workshop Organizer

Session Reporter

Ignacio J. Martinez-
Moyano

University at Albany
Volunteer Coordinator

Geoff McDonnell
University of New South
Wales

Session Reporter

Giovan Battista
Montemaggiore
University of Palermo
Session Reporter
Volunteer

Rutger M. Mooy
TNO
Session Reporter

Erling Moxnes
University of Bergen
Stream Organizer

Shiba Nemat-Nasser
Local Area Information
Coordinator

Rogelio Oliva
Texas A&M University
Stream Organizer

Nathaniel Osgood
MIT
Stream Organizer

Ken Parsons
Session Reporter

Oleg V. Pavlov
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Stream Organizer
Roundtable Chair

P. Jeffrey Potash
CIESD LLP
Stream Organizer

Jack Pugh

Retired

Conference Photographer
Webmaster

Ying Qian
Agder University College
Session Reporter

Patricia M. Quinn
General Electric

Training and Educational
Programs Coordinator

Michael J. Radzicki
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Stream Organizer

Hazhir Rahmandad
MIT
Workshop Coordinator

R. Joel Rahn

Stream Organizer

Jared Rhoads

Session Reporter

Scott F. Rockart
Duke University
Stream Organizer
Session Reporter

Etiénne A. J. A. Rouwette
Radboud University Nijmegen
Stream Organizer

Session Reporter

6 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 ~ 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Volunteers continued

Morten Ruud
SIKT AS
Roundtable Chair

Markus Salge
Mannheim University
PhD Colloquium Coordinator

Aamir Shehzad
Powersim Software AS
Session Reporter

Birgitte Snabe
Mannheim University
PhD Colloquium Coordinator

Warren W. Tignor
SAIC
Chair: Peer Review Dialog

Jeff W. Trailer
California State University
Chico

Stream Organizer

Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
University of Berne
Session Reporter

Wayne Wakeland
Portland State University
Roundtable Chair

Yangang Xing
University of Salford
Session Reporter

Carlos Yepez
Carleton University Ottawa
Session Reporter

If you are interested in volunteering for future conferences,
please send an email message to the System Dynamics Society at system.dynamics@albany.edu
including your name and contact information.

23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 ~ 21, 2005, Boston, USA 7.

Submission Reviewer

Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid
Naval Postgraduate School

Emmanuel D. Adamides
University of Patras

Raed Al-Qirem
University of Sunderland

Monica A. Altamirano
Delft University of
Technology

Richard Althouse
David Erway Group

Kristjan Ambroz
University of St Gallen

Jennifer M. Andersen

Lascelles Anderson
University of Illinois at
Chicago

Santiago Arango
University of Bergen

Carlos A. Ariza
PA Consulting Group

Stefano Armenia
Tor Vergata University Rome

Daniel J. W. Arthur
University of Surrey

Robert Axtell
Brookings Institution

George A. Backus
Policy Assessment
Corporation

Walid S. Badr
Mohaseboon

Bent Erik Bakken
Norwegian Defence Research
Est

8 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17

Bjorn Tallak Bakken
Norwegian Defence
Leadership Inst

Yaman Barlas
Bogazi¢i University

Brian J. Barry

John A. Barton
John Barton Consulting

Steffen Bayer
Imperial College London

Salim Belyazid
Lund University

Walt Beyeler
Sandia National Laboratories

Enzo Bivona
University of Palermo

Andrei Borshchev
XJ Technologies

Jeffrey Boyer
Plug Power Inc

Malcolm Brady
Dublin City University

Bill Braun
Ursuline College

Klaus Breuer
Johannes-Gutenberg-Univ
Mainz

Stephen J. Brewis
BT

Rod Dunlop Brown
Strategy Dynamics Consulting

Dawn M. Cappelli
Carnegie Mellon University

Kenneth H. Carpenter
Governor's Traffic Safety
Commission

Annick Castiaux
University of Namur

Steven A. Cavaleri
Central Connecticut State
University

Robert Y. Cavana

Victoria University of
Wellington

Sungsook Cho
Washington University

Martin Cloutier
University of Quebec at
Montreal

Gianluca Colombo
University of Lugano

Dan Compton
Dan Compton Consulting

Stephen H. Conrad
Sandia National Laboratories

David L. Cooke
University of Calgary

Manuela Cunha
IPCA - Escola Superior de
Tecnologia

Stephen Curram
HVR Consulting Services Ltd

Brian C. Dangerfield
University of Salford

Pal I. Davidsen
University of Bergen

Michael A. Deegan
University at Albany

21, 2005, Boston, USA
Submission Reviewers continued

Julia M. Di Stefano
New Hampshire College

Hassan Dibadj
University at Albany

Gékhan Dogan
MIT

Richard G. Dudley

Jim Duggan
National University of Ireland
Galway

Isaac Dyner
Universidad Nacional de
Colombia

Robert L. Eberlein
Ventana Systems Inc

Marie Elf
Center for Clinical Research
CKF and C

Arun Abraham Elias
Victoria University of
Wellington

R. Evan Ellis
Booz Allen Hamilton Inc

John Elter
Plug Power Inc

Philip C. Emmi
University of Utah

Martijn Eskinasi
Atrivé

Joern W. Ewaldt
Barkawi & Partner

David R. Exelby
HVR Consulting Services Ltd

Jan Faber
Utrecht University

Lars Finskud
Vanguard Brand Management

Diana Fisher
Wilson High School

Andrew Ford
Washington State University

David N. Ford
Texas A&M University

Tom L. Forest
Prometheal Systems

Jay Forrest
Jay Forrest, Consulting
Strategist

Jay W. Forrester
MIT

Valerie Gacogne
NESTEAR

Peter L. Galbraith
University of Queensland

Rosanna Garcia
Northeastern University

Shayne Gary
University of New South
Wales

Carmine Garzia
University of Lugano

Heiko Gebauer
University of St Gallen

Nicholas C. Georgantzas
Fordham University Business
Schools

Mila Getmansky
University of Massachusetts
Amherst

Sameh Ibrahim Gharib
University of Bergen

Anthony H. G. Gill
Phrontis Limited

David F. Gillespie
Washington University

Will Glass-Husain
Forio Business Simulations

Dan Goldner
Ventana Systems Inc

Diego Gomez
Universidad Nacional

Paulo Gongalves
University of Miami

Jose J. Gonzalez
Agder University College

Alan K. Graham
PA Consulting Group

Andreas GréBler
Mannheim University

Bas Groothedde
TNO Mobility & Logistics

Stefan Grésser
University of Bergen

Carolus Griitters
Radboud University Nijmegen
(NL)

Burak Giineralp
Univ of Illinois at Urbana-
Champaign

John W. Gunkler
Excelsior Group

Workneh Hailegiorgis
Siemens Business Services

Roger I. Hall
University of Manitoba

Charles C. Han
Tamkang University

Hérdur V. Haraldsson
Lund University

Tim Haslett
Monash University

23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 ~ 21, 2005, Boston, USA 9
Submission Reviewers continued

Mark Heffernan
International System
Dynamics Pty Ltd

John F. Heinbokel
CIESD LLP

Philip Helmes
Charles River Associates Inc

Petri Helo
University of Vaasa

Gary B. Hirsch
Creator of Learning
Environments

Maik Hollmann
University of Paderborn

Paul Holmstrém
Paul Holmstrom Management
AB

Peter S. Hovmand
Washington University in St
Louis

Naiyi Hsiao
National Chengchi University

Rueylin Hsiao
National University of
Singapore

C. Sherry Immediato
SoL - Soc for Organizational
Learning

Jacob J. Jacobson
Idaho National Laboratory

Greg Jacobus

Anil B. Jambekar
Michigan Technological
University

Arthur Janssen
Convergence

Daniel Jarosch
IBM Business Consulting
Services

Eva Jensen
Swedish National Defence
College

Omer Jirdeh
University at Albany

Nitin R. Joglekar
Boston University

Paul E. Johnson
University of Minnesota

Scott T. Johnson
BP

Andrew P. Jones
Sustainability Institute

Lee Jones
Ventana Systems UK Ltd

Wouter Jongebreur
Significant BV

Christer Kalén
Regional Forestry Board

Robert Kallenberg
Porsche AG

Florian Kapmeier
Universitat Stuttgart

Michel Karsky

Hans Dieter Kasperidus
UFZ Leipzig Halle

Gail Kelly
CSIRO Sustainable
Ecosystems

Andreas Kemper
European Business School

Naeem U. Khan
University of New South
Wales

Doahoon Kim
Sookmyung Woman's
University

Dong-Hwan Kim
Chung Ang University

Hyunjung Kim
University at Albany

Peter Klaas
University of Southern
Denmark

Miroljub Kljajic
University of Maribor

Klaus Kocher
Kocher & Gaide

Ulli H. Konig
RWE Energy AG

Birgit Kopainsky
Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology

Gordon Kubanek
Brookfield High School

Max Kummerow
University of Washington

Martin H. Kune
London Business School

Hironori Kurono

Ulrich La Roche
La Roche Consulting

David C. Lane
London School of Economics
& Poli Sci

Richard Langheim
Ramapo College of New
Jersey

Sharon Lansing
New York State Div of
Criminal Justice

Erik R. Larsen
City University

Ted J. Lawrence
University at Albany

10 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Submission Reviewers continued

Myoung Ho Lee
Han-Kuk University of
Foreign Studies

Tsuey-Ping Lee
Tunghai University

Carlos A. Legna
La Laguna University

Ralph L. Levine
Michigan State University

Keith Thomas Linard
Ankie Consulting Pty Ltd

Chao-Yueh Liu

University at Albany

Jingjiang Liu

Zhejiang University City
College

Corey Lofdahl
SAIC

Luis Lépez
INCAE Graduate School of
Business

Mohamed Loutfi
University of Sunderland

Gregory A. Love
MITRE Corporation

Alexander Lubyansky
University at Albany

Luis F. Luna-Reyes
Universidad de las Americas
Puebla

Yufeng Luo
Wuhan University

Debra A. Lyneis
Creative Learning Exchange

James M. Lyneis
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Kambiz E. Maani
University of Auckland

Roderick H. MacDonald
Initiative for SD in the Public
Sector

Abhijit Mandal
Warwick Business School

Martin E. Maren
Gianliborio G. Marrone

Maria Angélica Martinez
Medina
Tecnologico de Monterrey

Ignacio J. Martinez-
Moyano
University at Albany

Juan Martin-Garcia

Ali N. Mashayekhi
Sharif University of
Technology

Geoff McDonnell
University of New South
Wales

Douglas McKelvie
OLM Consulting

Alan Charles McLucas
University of New South
Wales

Dennis Meadows

Arif Mehmood
Delsys Research Group Inc

Carlos Manuel Méndez

Acosta

Universidad Catolica
Argentina

Stefania Migliavacca
Eni Corporate University

Thar A. Miklashevich
Belarusian National Technical
Univ

Peter M. Milling
Mannheim University

Rajiv Mistry
Pivotport Inc

Pratap K. J. Mohapatra
Indian Institute of Technology

Jonathan D. Moizer
University of Plymouth

Mohammad T.
Mojtahedzadeh
Attune Group Inc

Edoardo Mollona
Universita degli Studi di
Bologna

Michiya Morita
Gakushuin University

Marciano Morozowski
Filho
W!se Systems

J. Bradley Morrison
Brandeis University

Alfredo O. Moscardini
University of Sunderland

Erling Moxnes
University of Bergen

Paul Newton
Univ of Bergen/Cornell
University

Camilo Olaya
University of St Gallen

David C. O'Neal
Management Alternatives

Nathaniel Osgood
MIT

Leeza Osipenko
Stevens Institute of
Technology

23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 11
Submission Reviewers continued

Peter A. Otto
Dowling College

David W. Packer
Systems Thinking
Collaborative

Ozge Pala
Radboud University Nijmegen

Sang-Hyun Park
Electronics and Telecom
Research Inst

Oleg V. Pavlov
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Matteo Pedercini
Millennium Institute

Janecke Pemmer
Powersim AS

Anastassios Perdicoulis
Univ de Tras-os-Montes e
Alto Douro

Gloria Pérez Salazar
Tecnologico de Monterrey

Steve Peterson
The Peterson Group

Lazaros V. Petrides
University of Salford

David G. Pfeiffer
University of Minnesota

Seckin Polat
Istanbul Technical University

P. Jeffrey Potash
CIESD LLP

Davide Provenzano
University of Palermo

Rob Quaden
Carlisle Public Schools

Hassan Qudrat-Ullah
York University

Hal Rabbino
Strategic Clarity

Michael J. Radzicki
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

R. Joel Rahn

Vittorio Raimondi
Vanguard Strategy

Jorgen Randers
Norwegian School of
Management

Juan C. Rego
Nat’! Research Council of
Argentina

André Reichel
University of Stuttgart

Nelson P. Repenning
MIT

Eliot Rich
University at Albany

John M. Richardson
American University

James L. Ritchie-Dunham
Institute for Strategic Clarity

Scott F. Rockart
Duke University

Etiénne A. J. A. Rouwette
Radboud University Nijmegen

Morten Ruud
SIKT AS

Alexander V. Ryzhenkov
Russian Academy of Sciences

Mohamed Mostafa Saleh
Egyptian Cabinet

Jose Maria Sarriegui
Tecnun - University of
Navarra

Agata Sawicka
Agder University College

Ali Kerem Saysel
Bogazici University

Burkhard Schade
University of Karlsruhe

Martin Franz Georg
Schaffernicht
Universidad de Talca

Tim Scheffmann

Nadine Schieritz
Mannheim University

Frank Schoeneborn

Michael Schwandt
Virginia Tech

Markus Schwaninger
University of St Gallen

Habib Sedehi
University of Rome

Donald A. Seville
Sustainability Institute

Michelle Shields
Christchurch College of
Education

Rohita Singh
Geniusys Pty Ltd

Andrej Skraba
University of Maribor

M. Dolores Soto-Torres
Universidad de Valladolid

J. Michael Spector
Florida State University

Jiirgen Strohhecker
HfB Business School of
Finance and Mgt

Jeroen Struben
MIT

12 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Submission Reviewers continued

Lees N. Stuntz
Creative Learning Exchange

Toru Suetake
Chuo University

Mats G. Svensson
Lund University

Fabian Szulanski
University of Bergen

Burcu Tan
Bogazi¢i University

Kathryn S. Taylor

James P. Thompson
Cigna Health Care

Warren W. Tignor
SAIC

Jeff W. Trailer
California State University
Chico

Denis Treek
Jozef Stefan Institute

Kostas Triantis
Virginia Tech

Ya-tsai Tseng
Tunghai University

Shigehisa Tsuchiya
Chiba Institute of Technology

Yi-Ming Tu
National Sun Yat-Sen
University

David Turbow
University of California Irvine

Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
University of Berne

Imrana A. Umar
Powersim Solutions

Cornelia van Daalen
Delft University of
Technology

Theo van Mullekom
Radboud University Nijmegen

Peter Vanderminden
JP Morgan Partners LLC

German Vargas
National University of
Colombia

Klaus-Ole Vogstad
Norwegian Univ of Science
and Tech

John J. Voyer
University of Southern Maine

Khaled Wahba
Cairo University

Robert J. Walker
Delsys Research Group Inc

Qifan Wang
Fudan University

Wei-Tsong Wang
University at Albany

Kim D. Warren
London Business School

Elise Axelrad Weaver
Worcester Polytechnic
Institute

Henry Birdseye Weil
MIT

David Wheat
Virginia Western Community
College

Anthony S. White
Middlesex University

Elin Whitney-Smith
Netalyst Inc

Eric F. Wolstenholme

Kaoru Yamaguchi
Doshisha University

Athanasios
Yannacopoulos
University of the Aegean

Seung-Jun Yeon
Electronics and Telecom
Research Inst

Carlos Yepez
Carleton University Ottawa

Joseph Yoon
Commonwealth Government
of Australia

William Young
USAF

Aldo A. Zagonel
Sandia National Laboratories

Erich K. O. Zahn
Universitat Stuttgart

Agnieszka Ziomek
Poznan University of
Economics

Alexander Zock
Deutsche Lufthansa AG

If you are interested in reviewing submiss
please send an email message to the System Dynamics Society at system.dynamics@albany.edu
including your name, contact information and area(s) of expertise.

ms for future conferences,

23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 ~ 21, 2005, Boston, USA 13
Acknowledgment of Sponsors

PA Crsulting
Group
Conference Partner

Sponsor of Conference Banquet, Freedom Trail Walking Tour Conference Host

and Cocktail Hour at Union Oyster House. System Dynamics Group
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Sloan School of Management

VENTANA

systeMs, inc.

Amber Blocks, Ltd.

Sponsor of the Printed Founding Sponsor of the Dana
and CD-ROM Proceedings Meadows Student Paper Prize

LJ Booz | Allen | Hamilton

delivering results that endure

Sponsor of Special Session:

INTERNATIONAL System Dynamics in Action
Sponsor of Special Session: Sponsor of
Growth, Wealth and Sustainability Audiovisual Production

Services

The University of
Science and ‘Technology.
And Life.

Advanced Distance Leaming Network
Sponsor of Refreshment Breaks Sponsor of Thursday Workshops

a te gm
PoWeRrRSIM
ae

solutions

14 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 - 21, 2005, Boston, USA

Our Sincere Thanks To Our Sponsors

Many organizations and individuals contributed to this conference. We wholeheartedly thank our
sponsors and encourage you to thank their representatives during the conference. Please see contact
information for conference sponsors and exhibitors on the next two pages.

AIMS,
Advanced Integrated Management Strategies, LLC

AG Forio

Attune Group, Inc. Business Simulations

LA | F scaled
Ga'ISES Miwscithy

Eqypt & Midale East

formerly High Performance Systems GLOBAL SOLUTIONS.....
society for S L
organizational learning strategyd ynam ics

Boris

Anonymous Donor
Sponsor of Attendees Satchels (96)
4

GE Insurance Solutions an
Sponsor of Conference Posters

Sponsor of Partial Printing of Pegasus
Conference Brochures Communications

WWIB INCORPORATE D
Quality exhibits that work for you

Sponsor of Preparation and Delivery of Poster Presentation Boards

23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 - 21, 2005, Boston, USA 15
Sponsors and Exhibitors

AIMS

Advanced Integrated Management

Strategies, LLP

3549 West Walnut Hill Lane Suite 2065

Irving Texas 75038
United States of America
Phone: + 1 972 871 8417
Fax: +1 972 692 7446

Amber Blocks, Ltd.

145 East 48th Street Suite 30C
New York New York 10017
United States of America
Phone: + 1 212 593 3110

Fax: +1 212 593 0441

Attune Group, Inc.

John Hancock Tower

200 Clarendon Street T-26
Boston Massachusetts 02116
United States of America
Phone: + 1 617 425 3772
www.attunegroup.com

Booz Allen Hamilton
8283 Greensboro Drive
McLean Virginia 22102-3838
United States of America
Phone: + 1 703 902 5000
Fax: +1 703 902 3657
www.boozallen.com

CRA International, Inc.
200 Clarendon Street T-33
Boston Massachusetts 02116
United States of America
Phone: + 1 617 425 3000
Fax: +1 617 425 3132
www.crai.com

Forio Business Simulations
2320 Jones Street

San Francisco California 94133
United States of America
Phone: + 1 415 440 7500

Fax: +1 415 354 3457
www.forio.com

GE Insurance Solutions

20 Security Drive Suite 301
Avon Connecticut 06001
United States of America

www. geinsurancesolutions.com

Global Strategy Dynamics Ltd.
Two Farthings Aylesbury Road
Monks Risborough Bucks HP27 0JS
United Kingdom

Phone: + 44 1844 274061

Fax: +44 1844 275507
www.strategydynamics.com

HVR Consulting Services Ltd.
Selborne House Mill Lane

Alton Hampshire GU34 2QJ
United Kingdom

Phone: + 44 1420 87977

Fax: +44 1420 89819
www.hyr-csl.co.uk

isee systems

(formerly High Performance Systems)
46 Centerra Pkwy Suite 200

Lebanon New Hampshire 03766-1487
United States of America

Phone: + | 603 643 9636

Fax: +1 603 643 9502

www. iseesystems.com

16 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 ~ 21, 2005, Boston, USA

Sponsors and Exhibitors continued

John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Atrium Southern Gate
Chichester West Sussex PO19 8SQ
United Kingdom

Phone: + 44 1243 779777

Fax: +44 1243 775878
www.wileyeurope.com

Lane Press of Albany

11 Kairnes Street

Albany New York 12205
United States of America
Phone: + 1 518 438 7834
Fax: +1 518 438 3942

www .lanepressofalbany.com

Mohaseboon

Business & Financial Consultancies
8 Raouf St from Algazaer St

New Maadi Cairo

Egypt

Phone: + 20 2 705 7053

Fax: +20 2 705 7053
www.mohasboon.com

PA Consulting Group

One Memorial Drive

Cambridge Massachusetts 02142
United States of America

Phone: + 1 617 225 2700

Fax: +1 617 225 2631
www.paconsulting.com

Pegasus Communications

One Moody Street

Waltham Massachusetts 02453-5339
United States of America

Phone: + 1 781 398 9700

Fax: +1 781 894 7175
www.pegasuscom.com

Powersim Solutions, Inc.
585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon Virginia 20170
United States of America
Phone: + 1 703 467 0910
Fax: +1 703 467 0912
www.powersimsolutions.com

SoL,

The Society for Organizational Learning

25 First St Suite 414

Cambridge Massachusetts 02141-1802
United States of America

Phone: + 1 617 300 9500

Fax: +1 617 354 2093
www.solonline.org

System Dynamics Group,

MIT, Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street

Cambridge Massachusetts 02142

United States of America
http://web.mit.edu/sdg/www/

Ventana Systems, Inc.

60 Jacob Gates Road
Harvard Massachusetts 01451
United States of America
Phone: + 1 508 651 0544
Fax: +1 508 650 5422
www.vensim.com

WB Incorporated

One Westinghouse Plaza

Boston Massachusetts 02136-2097
United States of America

Phone: + 1 617 364 3890

Fax: +1 617 364 3893
www.wbine.com

Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Advanced Distance Learning Network

100 Institute Road Fuller Labs
Worcester Massachusetts 01609-2280
United States of America

Phone: + 1 508 831 5220

Fax: +1 508 831 5881
www.wpi.edu/Academics/ADLN/

XJ Technologies

21 Polytechnicheskaya Street Suite 105
St. Petersburg 194021

Russia

Phone: + 7 812 247 1674

Fax: +7 812 247 1639

www.xjtek.com

23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 ~ 21, 2005, Boston, USA

17
Award-winning

global consulting

PA Consulting Group works with clients from insight to
implementation — delivering unique industry insights and
end-to-end solutions. We bring new ideas that take our
clients beyond their current thinking, and we design and
implement innovative solutions to achieve lasting change
and impact. At PA, we see projects right through to the
finish line — and beyond.

From technology solutions to international development to our own portfolio

of venture companies, PA's expertise helps clients maximize the return on their
investments. As a leading management, systems and technology consulting firm,
PA builds strategies for the creation and capture of shareholder and customer
value and helps clients accelerate business growth through innovation and the
application of technology. Our industry sectors include:

* energy * government * manufacturing

+ finance + healthcare * telecoms

PA has won seven awards at the latest Management Consultancies Association
Best Management Practice Awards for excellence in client work, including

Overall Winner for the best consulting assignment of the year. This extends our
winning streak to seven years in a row, and reflects our pursuit of excellence, our
independence, and our focus on client value, making us the leading management
consulting firm operating in the UK, the US and around the world.

www.paconsulting.com
Strategy and market modeling
Forecasting and understanding markets and
business operations in complex and uncertain
environments, to inform strategy development
and pricing decisions.

Business and performance modeling
Modeling business processes and people flows
to alleviate bottlenecks, improve quality and
reduce cost, and to help manage performance
more strongly.

Option appraisal and

portfolio optimization

Evaluating project options and investment
opportunities to ensure value for money and/or
maximum return on investment, and to ensure
business objectives are achieved.

PA Gaultes
Group

Complex project simulation

Analyzing and better managing the key causes of
project uncertainty — complexity and disruptions —
through simulation modeling of project dynamics
and the Rework Cycle.

Resource planning and scheduling
Delivering the effective use of people, equipment
and other limited resources, to minimize cost and
release latent capacity.

Contact us

For more information, please contact
Sharon Els at +1 617 225 2700

or e-mail at sharon.els@paconsulting.com.

One Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA 02139
Tel: +1 617 225 2700

Fax: +1 617 225 2631
www.paconsulting.com
from

VENTANA

sys vems, inc

The newest tool for understanding your models is SyntheSim. You no longer need to wait to see
the results of your changes. As you adjust an assumption, you see the results. Instantly and
comprehensively, time graphs are displayed right on top of the model structure, providing you
with a synthesis of structure and simulation results. Learning from models has never been so fast
or so much fun.

With SyntheSim, each time you move a slider the model is automatically simulated and the
results of the simulation displayed overlaying the diagram. Modern computers are now fast
enough that, even for good sized models, this gives a smooth connection from parameter values
to behavior.

You can also change the shape of Lookup Tables and see the results as you change the shape.
And you don't need to do anything special to make any of this work. Just build your model or
open an existing model, click on the SyntheSim button and explore. As you do this all of
Vensim's unique analysis tools remain available to you so you can look at graphs and tables of
numbers to dig into the causal dependencies.
Never has it been so easy to experiment with breaking feedback loops in a model. In SyntheSim
mode you can, with a click of the mouse, change any variable from endogenous to exogenous.

You can make endogenous
variables into constants
with sliders or a number of
time varying patterns
including steps, pulses,
growth, decay and wave
patterns. You can also
make constants take on
time varying patterns.

You can build control
panels that provide key
inputs and outputs. As the

production =

==> coverage
2 a eee
pew
time to cotrect inventory
<a>

ae

time to adjust, Docs

assumptions are changed, the outputs are automatically updated. This makes it very easy to see

results without the complexity of a full model.

achertising spending ($/Yem)

———————
o 5M __Jooom

Prodact Lifetime (years)

———<—<—=—$=—
os 15 | iw

“customer sabs
2ffectiveness>

<Market Size>

Models containing such control panels can be provided to people for use with the Vensim Model
Reader which is on the CD and also available from our web site and can be redistributed to

others without charge.

Ventana Systems, Inc.
60 Jacob Gates Road
Harvard MA 01451
USA

Comparing Sales

ae

sales current (wirgetyesr)
Jase case (widget/veari

508 651 0432

Fax 508 650 5422
Vensim@vensim.com
http://)www.vensim.com

Experience SyntheSim yourself
Pick up a CD from our table in the Exhibition Area
CDs are Windows/Macintosh and include demonstration software and Vensim PLE
Vensim PLE is free for educational and personal use

Proud Host of the 23rd International
Conference of the System Dynamics Society

MIT
Sponsors of Systems Thinking
and System Dynamics in Education
K-12 and Business

Amber Blocks Ltd.
145 East 48th Street, Suite 30 C
New York, NY 10017
Tel (212) 593 3110

Allen L. Boorstein, President

Student Paper Prize, given annually for the best student paper

presented at the International System Dynamics Conference.
Thanks to all who helped establish the fund to permanently endow this
valuable award.

I: HAS BEEN OUR PLEASURE to help fund the Dana Meadows

Best wishes to all the students, who are the future of system dynamics.
www.boozallen.com

complex issues
clear solutions

The missions of government and business affect
the well-being of millions of people. Leaders must
make critical decisions and deliver results-whether
you're producing goods while protecting our
environment... harvesting and using energy
intelligently... developing drugs and ensuring their
safety... or moving people and goods safely from
place to place.

Doing this well requires both keen strategic insight
and deep technology expertise. It requires both a
commitment to the greater good and the courage to
make tough choices.

Booz Allen Hamilton has served private and public
interests for over 90 years. We understand your
mission and challenges-and have the capabilities
and experience to help you solve your critical
problems.

Booz Allen Hamilton, a global strategy and

technology consulting firm, works with clients to
deliver results that endure.

For more information, please contact
Bill Thoet

703-902-6702
thoet_bill@bah.com

Booz | Allen | Hamilton

delivering results that endure

INTERNATIONAL

\ Bra Picts. Glear Focus.
www.hvrgroup.com RA

HVR has been providing System Dynamics
consultancy services to a wide range of clients in
government and industry since 1994.

Our main business areas are
Government

Defence and aerospace
Petrochemicals
Telecommunications
Pharmaceuticals
Transport

Finance

Manufacturing

A Player in the
Community

HVR has supported the System Dynamics Society
over many years and was a key player in
establishment of the UK Chapter. We were proud to
have been official host of last year's conference in
Oxford.

How We Work

As one of the UK's leading providers of System
Dynamics consultancy, our reputation for
professionalism is second to none.

We work with our clients to deliver solutions
precisely tailored to their needs. HVR believes very
strongly in the need to transfer its technology to
HVR Consulting Services Ltd clients, many of whom now have the capability to
Selborne House undertake entire projects on their own.

eee HVR's team of consultants is also proficient in a
ss wide variety of other methodologies so we know

Hampshire GU34 2QJ ‘
Dinidead Keane when, and when not to apply System Dynamics.

Tel: +44 (0)1420 87977 antes
Fax: +44 (0)1420 89819

o David Exelby
www_hvrgroup.com david.exelby@ hvr-csl.co.uk

www_oscamtools.com
www_risktools.co.uk

Powersim Solutions: Simulation for Business

Over the last four years, Powersim Solutions has delivered more than two dozen simulation solutions
based on its proprietary platforms for decision support and value communication. Both simulation
platforms are web-based applications that can be deployed in internet and intranet settings.

ExPlan® offers a risk-free simulation environment for scenario
planning and strategy analysis. It allows managers to set
corporate goals, factor in external pressures through alternative
scenarios, and experiment with competing strategies for allocating
resources within the organization. The Integrated ExPlan
environment provides a collaborative way to explore future
options focusing on revenue assurance and risk management.

The ExPlan platform has now been improved to include additional functionalities such as base
scenarios, index-based inputs, data view, and variance analysis. It can be configured to address
specific needs at different levels in the organization:

e Executive Dashboard™ provides executives a single strategic view of the organization
focusing on corporate objectives and policies that define the direction for the business. The
ExPlan integrated environment allows executives to assess the performance of individual
units with comparison to relevant goals.

e¢ Dynamic Controls™ helps managers test-drive alternative strategies and evaluate the
impact of potential decisions that control the business. Collaborative features of ExPlan
improve communication and help managers address key trade-offs in resource allocation
effectively.

e Strategy Analyzer™ enables analysts and managers to experiment with potential
scenarios and evaluate the influence of internal and external risk factors that may affect the
business environment. Comparative analysis on the ExPlan platform helps to validate the
robustness of different strategies under continuously changing business conditions.

ExTrain® serves as a virtual practice field for managers to exercise
decision-making power under various business conditions in a risk-
free environment. ExTrain applications can be used in individual
online simulation sessions or within a facilitated environment with
interaction from trainers. Each application is also supported with a
facilitation tool that allows trainers to monitor simulation progress,
user performance and intervene if necessary.

The ExTrain platform now has a war-gaming version, which allows
users to take on different roles in the same simulation and compete with each other, instead of
playing against a pre-programmed competitor. The war-game version can also be configured for
simulations where users interact in a collaborative manner. The platform also has a .NET framework
version and improved features for decision history, data import, printing and facilitation, all of which
improve the overall training experience.

Powers! M 585 Grove Street, Suite 130, Herndon, Virginia 20170 USA
Phone: + 1 703 467 0910 Fax: + 1 703 467 0912

solutions www.powersimsolutions.com
system Dynamics Studies

Online at WPI. Learn how to propose strategic solutions to

your organization's problems. At WPI, you will learn how to use practical
tools to analyze complex systems and determine effective policy change.
Graduate studies in System Dynamics—enroll in a course or a certificate.

Completely online—anytime, anyplace.

\ The University of
E Science and Technology.
And Life.s

508-831-5220
www.wpi.edu/+ADLN

FA Exposé - BassModel. xi elles
Fle Yew Settings Too He

Bical) fe) Je) x) saa) for a) fo? || Zelice} eros

3 99500 96953, 96354) 9701
[4 | Adoption Rate 1000 10945 1196.8 1307.3, 14263, 1554
15 [Adopters 0 $00 1047.3 16456 2299.3, 3012
6 [Adoption fom Advertising 1000, 985 989.63, 983.54 977.01, 968,
[7 [Advertising Effectweness 0.01

“B [Adoption fom Word of Mov 0) 985 207.26 32371 449.28 S84
3 [Total Population

With Exposé 2.0:

- Reconstruct Stock/Flow/Feedback
Structure from your Spreadsheet

- Build models in Exposé and see
them in the Spreadsheet

i Sheets / |
AG Attune Group, Inc.

iEOno

NS

Create simulations that run on the web using Forio
Broadcast” Express

Forio provides:
* free simulation software,

+ hosts your simulation for free, and
* gives you a web address for your sim.

To create your simulation:
a Visit our website: broadcastforio.com

2. Upload your model (Broadcast accepts
Ithink, Powersim, and Vensim equations).

3. Use the QuickStart Wizard to create your
web pages that show simulation results.

Global Strategy Dynamics

is pleased to be sponsoring

The System Dynamics Conference
Boston, 2005.

» strategydynamics

GSD creates learning materials that support “Strategy Dynamics” -
System Dynamics focusing on asset accumulation and depletion.

For
Microworlds - PC based business simulations.
mystrategy™ planning software - whiteboard to PC
and more
NEW: Instructors resource area on our website

Vola Press books- ‘The Critical Path”, “Competing for Choice”, “People Power”

Visit us at
www.strategydynamics.com

Global Strategy Dynamic Ltd, P O Box 314, Princes Risborough, Bucks, UK
T: +44 1844 275518 W: www.strategydynamics.com E: sales@strategydynamics.com

~O> ISEC iThink

Laos Hig Patormence Stern STELLA

Dear Customers, Partners and System Dynamics Community,

Thank you for helping us to bring Systems Thinking to many
thousands of individuals and organizations in over 80 countries across
the world for the last twenty years.

Please join us in celebrating our 20th Anniversary Year.
Stop by our booth and find out why so many people are using our
modeling and simulation software — iThink and STELLA.

Sincerely,
The isee Team

Phone 603 643 9636 _info@iseesystems.com — wwwviseesystems.com

Ra
ZV OHASEROON

FROM) LINEAR THINKING TO) SYSTEMS THINKING

© Resources Management © Financial Consultancies
© Business Development @Modeling & Simulation
© Accounting & Audting © Training & implementations
@ Marketing Researches  @ Franchising Opportunites

© T=xation Souttiones © Feasibility Studies

Copyright © 2000 — 2005 MBFC — “ Logo® & Trade Mark ™”

A Web of Learning for Innovation and Action

Sol members are working together to create sustainchle change in their
organizotions and communities. Join us in harnessing the power of collective
wisdom for truly transformative results.

Stop by Sol’s booth to visit with Sherry Immediato and...

+ Purchase on autographed copy of Presence: Human Purpose and the Field
of the Future.

+ Join Sol as a Connections Member and receive c free copy of the Reflections
Volume 5 Compilation, 0 $35 volue.

+ Enter the raffle to win « complimentary registration to the Sol Global Forum,
2 $1000 value! “A Symphony of Innovation: Leveraging Complexity 10 Create
Knowledge ond Confidence” will be held in Vienna, Austtio, September 13-16, 2005.
Join Sol members in crecting o framework for

collaborative learning and innovation in an = ¥
economy that demands immediate action. S 4
society for °

organizational learning

Learn more at www.solonline.org
REVOLUTION IN

SYSTEM AND BUSINESS Whether you are an industry-specific

DYNAMICS practitioner or a member of a consulting firm,
creating powerful, flexible simulation models is

essential ta your success. That's the thinking
ANYLOGIC” MAKES IT [iieecateun

Support of agent-based, system dynamics and
discrete-event modeling - in any combination,
at any level of abstraction makes AnyLogic
unmatched to model and analyze the behavior of
physical, biological, ecological, social and
business systems

For more information visit www.anylogic.com

ecomagination"

Get the latest table of contents delivered
direct to your desktop free

..and keep up-to-date with the
official journal of the SDS!

Wiley InterScience Alerting Services

Receive notifications and tables of contents straight to
your desktop FREE - even if you do not have a
subscription to the journal!

Saved Titles Alerts receive tables of contents straight
to your desktop of the latest issue from SDR once it has
been published online.

Saved Search Alerts notify you as soon as content
matching the parameters of your saved search is
published online.

To set up these FREE services go to the journal homepage at:

www.interscience.wiley.com/journal/sdr  interScience:
and click on Set Email Alert ayscuvea POwETHIPG GREAT

7208

PEGASUS
COMMUNICATIONS, INC.

The leading provider of resources in the fields of
¢ Systems Dynamics ¢ Systems Thinking and ¢ Organizational Learning
Featuring publications by noted System Dynamics theorists and practitioners:

Jay Forrester Dennis Meadows John Sterman Kambiz Maani
John Morecroft Michael Goodman Peter Senge Daniel H. Kim
Jorgen Randers Alexander Pugh III (Jack) ... and many more

Introducing the One on One Video Series— designed to bring viewers face to face
with the people who are changing the ways we think about our organizations and our world. Its intimate
atmosphere and practical focus provide a powerful and memorable leaming experience for people in
organizations of all kinds. View clips from the videos at www.pegasuscom.com/m2/media.html.

Senge on Leadership i Meadons: Growth ona

To order, or for a catalog or additional information, visit our website: www.peqasuscom.com
Phone 781-398-9700 * Fax 781-894-7175 * Email query@ pegasuscom.com
One Moody Street / Waltham, MA 02453-5339

WABI CORP OR ATED
Quality exhibits that work for you
CUSTOM
EXHIBITS
DISPLAYS

GRAPHICS
SERVICES

WB Incorporated

1 Westinghouse Plaza
Boston, MA 02136

Tel: (617) 364-3890
sales@wbinc.com

www.wbinc.com

ENVIRONMENTS * TRADESHOWS * MUSEUMS * EVENTS

AIMS

Advanced Integrated Management Strategies, LLP

Proud sponsors
Boston 2005
International Conference of the System Dynamics Society

AIMS
3549 West Walnut Hill Lane Suite 2065
Irving Texas 75038 USA
+ 1972 871 8417

For more information contact
Usman A. Ghani: usman@aimsfocused.com

THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS CAREER LINK

What is it? The SD Career Link, in its sixth year of operation, is hosted by the System
Dynamics Society at the University at Albany. It includes on-line information and links to
organizations who employ candidates with system dynamics and systems thinking backgrounds.
We hope that the SD Career Link will provide a valuable exchange of information about
organizations, positions and people in the field of system dynamics. Please visit the SD Career
Link bulletin board at the conference.

Career Link Allows Companies and Universities to Describe General Career
Information as Well as Specific Job Opportunities. The Career Link section of the Society
web site has two subsections: (1) career information; and (2) specific job postings. In the career
information section, employers and universities provide general descriptive information about
how system dynamics fits into their organization, typical jobs, career paths, and other aspects of
employment with the company. This subsection allows employers to provide information about
system dynamics opportunities within their firms to supplement the more general information
contained on their corporate or academic websites. Such career information is valuable to those
interested in studying system dynamics, and we urge companies and universities to describe
system dynamics in their organization even if they do not have specific open jobs at the present
time. The subsection on specific job postings allows employers to advertise active openings.

How to participate? Please refer to the System Dynamics Society website at
www.systemdynamics.org/ or send an email message to the Society office at
<system.dynamics@ albany.edu>. All information about access to and use of the site will remain
confidential. We look forward to your participation.

23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 - 21, 2005, Boston, USA 35
Dana Meadows Student Award
Endowment Fund Drive

In the fall of 2004 the System Dynamics Society announced a fundraising drive to
permanently endow the Dana Meadows Student Award, given for the best work by students
presented at the annual conference of the Society. For the first three years (2001, 2003, 2004)
Jane and Allen Boorstein generously funded the award.

Our goal is $60,000. To help reach it, a group of Dana’s colleagues, former students, and
supporter of the Society pledged to match donations, until the overall goal of $60,000 was
met. We quickly came within $2,000 of reaching the goal with 64 individual contributions
and two organizations, the UK-based Operational Research Society and the Sustainability
Institute.

We hope to successfully conclude this fundraising drive at the Boston conference. Please join
the list of donors! Contributions in any amount are welcome and can be made at the
Registration Desk during the conference. All contributions are tax deductible (in the US).
More information about the Award can be found on the System Dynamics Society website.

Sincere thanks to all the donors.

List of Donors
As of June 3, 2005

Anonymous Jack Homer Ken Parsons
David and Deborah Andersen Michael Hottinger Mike Radzicki
George Backus Bill Isaacs Hazhir Rahmandad
Jane and Allen Boorstein Kimberly Jinnett Nelson and Elizabeth Repenning
John E. Butler Drew Jones George Richardson
Bob Cavana Christian E. Kampmann John Richardson
Brian Dangerfield Michel Karsky Scott Rockart
Andrew Daubenspeck Elizabeth Keating George Roth
Ernst Diehl Daniel Kim Khalid Saeed
Bill Dunbar Miroljub Kljajié Raymond H. and Marlene W.
Pascal Duport Hironori Kurono Schneider
Bob Eberlein David Lane Peter and Diane Senge
Keith Eubanks Richard Langheim Don Seville
Tom Fiddaman and Sarah Jim and Deb Lyneis Masud Sheikh
Rittmeyer Roderick MacDonald Roberta Spencer
Diana Fisher Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano William Steinhurst
David N. Ford Dennis Meadows John Sterman
Andy Ford Bobby Milstein Sustainability Institute
Jay Forrest John Morecroft Linda Booth Sweeney
Jay W. Forrester Erling Moxnes John Voyer
David Gillespie Roger Naill Stephen Wehrenberg
Will Glass-Husain Operational Research Society (UK) Aldo A. Zagonel
Jose J. Gonzalez Mark Paich Erich Zahn

36 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 ~ 21, 2005, Boston, USA
The 24th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society
NIJ MEGEN July 23 - 27, 2006

The 2006 conference of the System Dynamics
Society will be held at the campus of Radboud
University in Nijmegen, the Netherlands. A
range of accommodations, from a luxury spa
hotel to bed & breakfasts and economical
hostels, is available within walking distance or
up to a 15-minute bus (or bike!) ride depending
on the location. Nijmegen is a small, friendly
city and very easy to navigate. Nijmegen can
be easily reached from Amsterdam Schiphol
Airport by a 1.5 hour scenic train ride.

Nijmegen is the Netherlands’ oldest city and
celebrates its 2000th anniversary in 2005. The
city offers historic sites and museums and
borders beautiful forest countryside and polder landscapes, our unique low-lying terrains that have been
reclaimed from water and are protected by dikes.

Radboud University is a leading research center in diverse fields such as human

cognition, materials and magnetism, wetland ecology, and business law. The University

enrolls 14,500 students in eight faculties and is renowned for its green campus, modern =
buildings, and state-of-the-art equipment. For more information, please visit the website 3
of the Institute for Management Research at www.ru.nl/fm/imr. Yo,

Conference meetings will be held in auditoria and parallel rooms. For coffee breaks and

lunches the university restaurant and open-air bar are available. The conference program will consist of
plenary, parallel, and poster sessions demonstrating the state of the art in theory and application of system
dynamics. In coaching sessions and workshops, experienced system dynamicists will assist in working on
modeling questions. The program will also include the PhD colloquium, panel discussions, special interest
group sessions, vendor displays, exhibits, demonstrations, and Society business meetings.

The conference schedule provides ample opportunities for meeting with colleagues and friends, including an
opening reception in the city centre and a conference banquet. Discussions in a relaxed atmosphere will
contribute to the exchange of innovative ideas. We look forward to welcoming you in Nijmegen and
combining academic and practical interests in a pleasant setting!

erat

mines

CONTACTS
Organizing Chair Conference Chair P .
Etiénne Rouwette Jac Vennix Frogrem oar
Methodology Department Methodology Department Mannheim Business School
Nijmegen School of Management | Nijmegen School of Management Mannheim University
Radboud University Nijmegen Radboud University Nijmegen Germany
The Netherlands The Netherlands 7 : 5‘
e.rouwette@fm.ru.nl j-vennix@fm.ru.nl agroe@is-biwl-unkmannneim.de

Conference Manager Roberta L. Spencer, System Dynamics Society, system.dynamics@albany.edu

For updated details, please visit the Society website at www.systemdynamics.org

23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 - 21, 2005, Boston, USA 37

Reading Supporting Material

Supporting Material files can be found by clicking on the appropriate link in the Paper Index,
found on the conference website and on the CD proceedings. Papers are listed alphabetically by
the last name of the primary author.

> Viewing/Opening/Reading the Supporting Material:

Some of these files are regular texts or presentations which are in widely accessible formats such
as .doc, .ppt, .pdf, etc., but others are model files, which need to be viewed using the appropriate
system dynamics modeling software. Below, find information on how to access
freeware/demo/trial versions from several system dynamics software manufacturers. Follow the
links within the descriptions below to the software needed to view the files.

In following chart, find the three-letter extension of the file name, then the software you need to
view the file.

File Name Extension | Software Needed
.itm, .stm ithink, STELLA*
-Sip Powersim Studio
sim Powersim
-vmf, .mdl Vensim

*ithink and STELLA can each be used to open both itm and .stm files.

STELLA/ithink by isee systems (formerly High Performance Systems):
http://www. iseesystems.com/softwares/player/iseeplayer.aspx

This link will navigate you to the FREE isee Player. The isee Player lets you view, run, print and
share both STELLA and iThink models. Available in both Windows and Macintosh versions, the
isee Player allows exploration of all model layers - map, model, equation, and interface, and
never "times out."

Powersim Studio by Powersim Solutions:
http://www.powersimsolutions.com/SDConference2005/sdconference.asp

Powersim Studio Express is a 60-day trial version of Powersim Studio 2005. Note that this
stallation will automatically replace any previous version of Studio 2000, 2001 or 2003 that is
installed on the computer. Studio 2005 can open files from earlier versions of Studio, but earlier
versions cannot open a file that has been updated or created in Studio 2005. Studio 2005 contains
an array of new and exciting features, including tools for optimization and risk analysis, number
formatting, new user assistance features, the ability to customize the user interface, and more.

Vensim by Ventana Systems:
http://www.vensim.com/reader.html

The Vensim Model Reader can be used to open Vensim models which are files with extension
.vmf. This is free software which will allow you to view and simulate models changing the
assumptions but not model structure. Many models (both .vmf and .mdl) can also be opened using
Vensim PLE which is free for educational use. Both are available from:
http://www.vensim.com/freedownload.html

38 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA

Papers: Parallel, Poster, Research

Ahmed AbdelTawad
AbdelGawad

ahgawad@hotmail.com

Information and Decision Support
Centr

1 Magless ElShaab Str
Downtown

Cairo Egypt

Bahaa Eldin Aly Abdel-Aleem
baleem@idse.net.eg

Egyptian Cabinet

Information and Decision Support
Ctr

1 Magles El-shaab Street

Cairo Egypt

Mohamed Mostafa Saleh

msaleh@

eoneteg
Egyptian Cabinet

Information and Decision Support
Ctr

1 Magless Al-Shaab Street

Cairo Egypt

Pal I. Davidsen
davidsen@ifi.uib.no

University of Bergen

Department of Geography 7th Floor
Hermann Fossgt 6

5020 Bergen Norway

Tarek Abou Ali
t.aboualy@computer.org
IEC

3 Baghdad Street
Heliopolis 11341 Egypt

Khaled Wahba

Khaled. wahba@riti.org

Cairo University

Faculty of Engineering

11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211 Egypt

Automated Eigenvalue Analysis of System
Dynamics Models

The method presented in this paper allows for an investigation of how
the eigenvalues characterizing the model behavior is created from the
underlying model structure and how this behavior feeds back to
change instantaneously the relative significance of the model
structure. The method also allows us to identify the relative
significance of the various parameters that governs the gains of the
links and loops of the model. The method has been implemented using
Matlab software for the purpose of facilitating an eigenvalue analysis
of system dynamic models. This work is based on control theory as
well as the previous work on eigenvalue analysis in system dynamics.
It summarizes the thesis work by Ahmed AbdelTawab AbdelGawad
(2004) and Bahaa E. Aly Abdel-Aleem (2004), under the supervision
of Mohamed Saleh and Pal I. Davidsen. The method outlined and
Matlab code developed in preparation for this paper may be
implemented as part of any simulation package.

Assessment of Egyptian Software Export
Capabilities Using a System Dynamics
Approach

The purpose of this research was to assess the Egyptian software
industry using a Systems Dynamics approach based on the Software
Export Success Factors Model developed by Heeks and Nicholson,
2002. A CLD was prepared as a step towards building a model to
simulate the expected effect of key software-related infrastructure
variables on the Egyptian software export revenue. Simulations of
software export industry over a period of 10 years point to the
following: (1) Injecting an additional 30% financial resources resulted
in an increase of 8.4% in software export revenue and 2.1% in job
opportunities with respect to the reference mode, (2) Improving IT
staff productivity by 42%, and delivered software quality by 10%,
with a decrease in resistance to change of 20% led to an increase of
68.7% in software export revenue and of 12.9% in job opportunities
with respect to the reference mode, (3) Enhancing R&D by 50% and

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 39

Emmanuel D. Adamides
adamides@mech.upatras.gr
University of Patras

PO Box 5064

26004 Patras Greece

Yeoryios A. Stamboulis
ystambou@uth. gr

Plastira 26

38221 Volos Greece

Nikolaos Pomonis
npomo@yahoo.gr

University of Patras

Dpt Mechanical & Aeronautical Eng
IMIS Lab

26500 Patras Greece

Ashish Agarwal
ashish_ka@yahoo.com

Indira Gandhi National Open
University

School of Engineering & Technology
Department of Management Studies
New Delhi 110016 India

Ravi Shankar
ravil@dms.iitd.ernet.in

Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
Department of Management Studies
Hauz Khas New Delhi 110 016
New Delhi 110 016 India

Fadl M. Ahmed
fadlmaster1@yahoo.com
Cairo University
Systems and Biomedical
Engineering Dept

Cairo

Egypt

Khaled Wahba
khaled. wahba@riti.org
Cairo University
Faculty of Engineering

11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211

Egypt

IT staff innovation contribution by 10% resulted in an increase of
14.4% in software export revenue and 3% in job opportunities with
respect to the reference mode, and (4) Improving the software export
promotion efficiency by 14% and quality of delivered software by
10% led to an increase of 38.7% in software export revenue and 8% in
job opportunities with respect to the reference mode.

Modularity and Strategic Flexibility: A
Cogntive and Dynamic Perspective

The paper addresses the question whether a modular organizational
structure breeds mechanisms that promote proactive strategic
flexibility. We examine this question from the perspective of the
cognitive school of strategic management and with the aid of system
dynamics modeling and simulation to explore long-term dynamic
effects. Both our analysis and our experiments with the model suggest
that modular organizations do not necessarily encourage the
construction of managers’ mental models with a capability to generate
more strategic options and, thus, do not promote strategic flexibility at
a higher degree compared to more traditional organizational
structures.

Modeling Supply Chain Performance in
Different Market Scenarios

Performance of a supply chain depends on the integration of i
trading partners and its ability to quickly respond to market changes.
A system dynamics approach has been attempted in this paper to
model the effect of integration and agility on performance of a case
supply chain involved in FMCG business. The dynamic interactions
between the different variables related to cause and effect of
integration and agility of a case supply chain have been modeled and
analyzed under different market scenarios. Simulation result of the
dynamic interactions of case supply chain performance variables
indicates that the influence of increase in integration level on the
performance of the case supply chain is relatively more significant as
compared to the influence of a similar increase in the agility level.

The Dynamics of Glucose Regulatory System:
An Educational Tool for the Students of First
Medical Year

The glucose regulatory system in man is a complex system. It is a
nonlinear, multiloop, self-regulatory feedback system which exhibits
behavior which is often counter-intuitive and which is insensitive to
many external interference. The challenge in this work is to employ a
model that is “simple, but not too simple” for the students of first
medical year with the purpose to help them understand the glucose
regulatory system in the human being body by quasi-practical
approach based on simulation tool and not my _ theoretical
understanding. This model describes the carbohydrate metabolism,

40 23 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Abdallah S. Ahmed
Cairo University

Bahadir Akcam
bahadirakcam@gmail.com
University at Albany
135 Western Avenue
Draper 113

Albany NY 12222 USA

Victor Asal
vasal@email.albany.edu
University at Albany
135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA

Jens Alkemper
alkemper@research.ge.com
GE Global Research

1 Research Circle
Niskayuna NY 12308
USA

Don Mango
don.mango@ge.com

GE Insurance Solutions
6 Hunt Lane

Gladstone NJ 07934
USA

digestion, absorption and fate of intake carbohydrates. The model
attempts to reflect the underlying (patho) physiology of insulin action
and carbohydrate absorption in quantitative terms such as insulin
sensitivity, volume of glucose and insulin distribution and maximal
rate of gastric emptying. The model represents the integration of two
existing models proposed earlier by Foster et al. (1970) and Lehmann
et al. (1992).

The Dynamics of Ethnic Terrorism

Despite the fact that much of recent terror is ethnically based, little
attention has been paid to systematically explaining ethnic violence.
We build on the work done by the Minorities at Risk Project (MAR)
to the issue of ethnic terror using systems dynamics. While there has
been important work done using MAR to explore ethnic violence as a
base using statistics and qualitative analysis (Gurr 2000) there has
been little work exploring ethnic terrorism specifically and none that
has exploited systems dynamics as an analytical tool. The application
of a systems dynamics approach will help us go beyond some of the
limitations of statistical analysis to explore how government policy
and ethnonationalist terrorism feed of each other in a cycle of
violence, discrimination and repression. This work has three broad
goals. First, it is targeted at understanding the causes of ethnic terror
and second examining the way the relation between the ethnic policies
of governments and the behavior of ethnic groups - particularly their
choice to use or not use terrorism relate systematically. Third, this
work sees to apply for the first time the tools of systems dynamics to
political violence.

Simulation of the Reinsurance Market using
Agent-Based Modeling

Prices in the Property and Casualty Reinsurance market are known to
undergo significant fluctuations. In order to understand the reasons for
these fluctuations a simulation model was built that replicates relevant
features of the reinsurance market: a limited number of market
participants are competing, low product differentiation, volume
constraints for each market participant and discrete volume decisions
based on estimated rather than actual market prices. Despite a number
of simplifications the model captures the current market dynamics. In
a further development the model was made interactive allowing actual
“players” to take the role of the reinsurance companies and make the
individual volume decisions based on current financials and the
market history. The model was built using agent based instead of
system dynamics modeling techniques particularly to simplify
implementation of critical discrete events and to create a simple to
understand structure. We will discuss the model, the trade-offs
between the Agent-based and System-dynamics approach as they
applied to this model and share some experience in communicating
the model structure with the business owners.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 41
Raed Al-Qirem
raed.girem@sunderland.ac.uk
University of Sunderland
Room DM-401 Media Centre
St Peter's Campus
Sunderland SR6 ODD UK

Alfredo O. Moscardini
alfredo.moscardini@sunderland.ac.uk
University of Sunderland

School of Computing and
Technology

St Peter’s Campus

Sunderland SR6 ODD UK

Mohamed Loutfi
mohamed. loutfi@
University of Sunderland

School of Computing & Technology
St Peters Campus

Sunderland SR6 ODD UK

sunderland.ac.uk

Carlos Alvarez Sierra
ALSI SAC

Jr Huanuco No 978

Av Jacinto Ibarra No 998
Huancayo Peru

Abel F. Alvarez Sierra
abelsierra72@hotmail.com
Jr Huanuco No 978
Huancayo Peru

42

The Use Of System Dynamics Models To
Evaluate The Credit-Worthiness Of Firms

Evaluating new bank loans has been considered as one of the main
dilemmas that banks managers have to deal with in order to reduce the
probability of default. The lending process is a series of activities
involving two main parties whose association ranges from the loan
application to the successful or unsuccessful repayment of the loan.
This paper describes the construction of a flight simulator which uses
the ideas of System Dynamics and the Viable Systems Methodology.
The Decision Support Tool thus formed uses systemic approaches to
measure a firm’s performance and can provide a risk assessment in
the sense of evaluating performance under different (what-if)
scenarios. The credit worthiness from this model can then be
evaluated against the usual estimate based only on financial ratios.

Application of the Dynamics of Systems as an
Alternative Solution to the Garbage in the
Valley of the Mantaro

The valley of the Mantaro embraces great part of three counties of the
department of Junin (Huancayo, Concepcion, Jauja), with a problem
in common, of the different municipalities that are in the whole
journey of the river Mantaro, as treating the solid waste. Throw
organic waste, inorganic to the river Mantaro; it is not a good solution
for the Municipal administrations, because it is contaminated
seriously to river, for the great quantity of waste that hurtles daily,
besides already to be contaminated by the pollutants that are thrown
by the center metallurgist of the Oroya. The sanitary filler was not a
good alternative to solve this problem; Which is the best solution?, is
it a question that they cannot respond, the Municipalities that are
located in the valley of the Mantaro; the constant disagreements
among their administrators what they achieve is to continue
prolonging the contamination of the rivers and of the environment.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Carlos Alvarez Sierra
ALSI SAC

Jr Huanuco No 978

Ay Jacinto Ibarra No 998
Huancayo Peru

Abel F. Alvarez Sierra
abelsierra72@hotmail.com
Jr Huanuco No 978
Huancayo Peru

Lianjun An
alianjun@us.ibm.com

IBM

TJ Watson Research Center
1101 Kitchawan Rd Rte 134

Yorktown Heights NY 10598 USA

Bala Ramachandran
rbala@us.ibm.com

IBM.

TJ Watson Research Center

1101 Kitchawan Rd Rte 134 Box 218
Yorktown Heights NY 10598 USA

Edward G. Anderson
egandersonjr@hotmail.com
University of Texas
McCombs School of Business
1 University Station B6300
Austin TX 78712 USA

Model Dynamic of Evaluation of the
Environmental Impact of the Reforestations

The integral handling of the basins in semi-arid areas implies to face
many problems. Among them: decrease of the vegetable covering,
inadequate use of the earth on the part of the farmers, with the rising
erosion processes and transport of silts. On the other hand, in many
places of the Andean area, the population's increase and their growing
necessities have caused a process of alarming environmental
degradation. The handling of trees and bushes in the properties of the
peasants are one of the key components of the handling of basins,
mainly in semi-arid areas, where the few but intense precipitation
events can cause severe damages in the areas of influence of the
valleys. The program of reforestation of the PRONAMACHS this at
the moment being executed but up to where it will contribute to solve
these problems. To be able to get a sustained growth of the
community of the Mariac Tingo, we need to know like it will be the
long term environmental impact and which will be the economic
benefits that it achieved the planned reforestation and systemic.

System Dynamics Model to Understand
Demand-Conditioning Dynamics in Supply
Chains

Demand Conditioning is one of the methods used to address
imbalances between supply and demand in supply chains. This
requires the manufacturer to adjust the demand plan to respond to
supply issues. The supply chain has several sources of delays and
uncertainties such as lead times at different stages, forecast error,
supply yield variability etc. that could potentially trigger or influence
the conditioning process. In this paper, we examine dynamical effects
in the conditioning process to study potential instabilities. We
developed a Systems Dynamics model of a PC manufacturing supply
chain to examine instabilities in the supply chain. This model provides
insight on supply chain risks and error propagation due to
unsynchronized execution. We also use the model to study the effect
of different countermeasures to stabilize the supply chain.

An Initial Dynamic Model of Transactive
Memory Systems
A key determinant of any group’s performance in such contexts as

varied as product development, consulting, and craft manufacturing is
its transactive memory system (TMS): that is, its shared, tacit memory

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 43
Kyle Lewis
kyle.lewis@mccombs.utexas.edu
University of Texas
McCombs School of Business
1 University Station B6300
Austin TX 78712 USA

Santiago Arango
santiago.arango@ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Information Science

PO 7800

N-5020 Bergen Norway

Fernando Arenas
farenas@puj.edu.co

Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
Calle 18 118-250 Av Canas Gordas
Pance

Cali Valle 017

Colombia

system for managing and communicating information relevant to the
group. Using the methodology of system dynamics, we model the
relationship between TMS and productivity by leveraging the theory
of learning-by-doing at both the group and individual levels. We also
incorporate into the model the concepts of “group forgetting,” in
which employee turnover reduces group knowledge. We also include
the effects of specialization, overspecialization, and knowledge
obsolescence. We then simulate the impact of each of these
refinements and perform sensitivity analyses on them. Finally, we
discuss several implications of this model for future research. One
implication is that representing group learning processes by a single,
traditional, power-law learning curve may be in many cases
inadequate. Another is that the very development of a TMS may
create excessive individual specialization that is detrimental to future
productivity levels.

Oscillatory Behavior as a Function of Market
Complexity: Experiments on Commodity
Cycles

This paper examines results on a series of Cournot markets with
groups of five seller subjects. Step by step, we add complexity (and
realism) to the simplest market and test the effects on behavior in an
accompanying laboratory experiment. Consistent with previous
experiments and the rational expectations hypothesis, price behavior
was explained with Cournot Nash equilibrium with biases towards
competitive prices. When complexity is increased, there rationality is
degraded and lead to a salient cyclical tendency. Indications of
cyclical behavior were induced by the application of spectral analysis
and autocorrelation. We found that the more problematic effect of
complexity in market behavior is the extra delay rather than
accumulations. We proposed a heuristic based on the bounded
rationality theory, but the tests were not satisfactory.

An Adaptive Expectations Approach to the
Mechanisms of Transmission Model of the
Central Bank of Colombia

An Adaptive Expectations Approach to the Mechanisms of
Transmission Model of the Central Bank of Colombia Fernando
Arenas — Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Franz Hamann — Banco de
la Reptiblica ABSTRACT Looking for the potential applications of
system dynamics in macroeconomic modeling at the Central Bank of
Colombia, the Mechanisms of Transmission Model (MTM) was recast
in a system dynamics model. The forward-looking function of the
model that, in the case of the MTM is a rational expectations based
function, was approached by means of the TREND function. This
document describes the system dynamics model and shows
comparative impulse-response results between the models, when
PULSE and STEP shocks are applied to inflation target, monetary
policy, food supply, nominal depreciation rate, and risk premium.

44 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Steven Arquitt
sarquitt@uq.edu.au

University of Queensland

7 Mirreh Pl

Chapel Hill Queensland 4069
Australia

Daniel J. W. Arthur
d.arthur@surrey.ac.uk
University of Surrey

CCSR

Guildford GU2 7XH

UK

Mohamed Askar
maskar@aucegypt.edu
American University in Cairo
1 Youssef El Gindi Street
Bab El Louk 12511 Cairo Egypt

Karim Assabghy
karim_assabghy@)
American University in Cairo
4A Ibn Zinky St

Zamalek Cairo Egypt

ahoo.com

Syed Imam
simam@aucegyptedu
American University in Cairo
11 Youssef El Gindi Street
Bab El Louk Cairo Egypt

An Application of Saeed’s Environmental
Mitigation Banking Model: Restoring
Mangroves for a Sustainable Shrimp Industry

Saeed’s environmental mitigation banking system dynamics model is
applied to a case study in Thailand in which shrimp producers buy
mitigation credits to compensate for damage done to mangrove
ecosystems. Simulating the model suggests that a mitigation banking
system can promote sustainable development of both mangroves and
the shrimp farming industry if a direct one-off subsidy is given to the
mitigation bank. The model is a work in progress embracing many
uncertain assumptions and is considered, at this stage, as a tool for
learning and focusing further research.

Upscaling Diffusion Models to Represent
General Purpose Technologies for Industry
Modelling

Modelling of technology adoption has tended to be based on
individual product diffusion, although traditional models have been
extended to incorporate replacement, competition, generations of
substitution and other managerial variables such as pricing. A
question is: how can these models be broadened to represent service
industry applications and generalised or upscaled to model the
phenomenon of General Purpose Technologies? GPTs have the
properties of pervasiveness and complementary technologies. GPTs
suffer from long development delays or start-up problems involving
the co-ordination problems of complementary bandwagon behaviour.
System dynamics modelling is proposed as an effective industry-level
modelling approach to link standard expert judgement market
forecasting used in industry and theoretical analysis used by
economists in order to provide robust technology management
policies. This paper represents an overview of the work-in-progress
research themes and a modelling agenda.

Business Dynamics Exploratory Model for
Reviewing Industry in Developing Countries:
The Case of Egyptian Automotive Industry

The automotive industry is considered as one of the main drivers of
today’s global economy. The industry spans across the globe, with
nearly each country trying to develop the industry and its supply chain
within its boundaries. This paper presents a Business Dynamics model
that maps the Egyptian Automotive industry, which started as a public
industry and then transformed to a market driven private industry. The
Egyptian automotive industry focuses on the local Egyptian market,
with no current plan for exporting to the global market. Such focus
provides the Egyptian automotive industries with challenges that
impede its growth. The Business Dynamics model presented in the

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 45
Bent Erik Bakken
beerikba@online.no

Norwegian Defence Research Est
PO Box 25

NO-2027 Kjeller

Norway

Pal R. Ostby
pos@ffi.no
Norwegian Defence Research Est

Arne Roksund
aroksund@fsts.mil.no
Norwegian Defence Staff Academy

Giorgio Ballardin
giorgio.ballardin@enicorporateuniversi
ty.eni.it

Eni Corporate University

Scuola Mattei

Via Salvo | San Donato Milanese
20097 Milan Italy

paper presents an explanation of the current status of the Egyptian
Automotive industry. The model is then used to provide insights for
the current status of the industry, as well as testing several policy
options for stimulating the industry’s growth.

Transforming a Military Personnel Policy —
Learning from a Model Supported
Intervention

The Norwegian Armed Forces used to have a unitary personnel
policy. All officers were recruited with prospects of life-long
employment. The long time constants in such a system meant that a
transformation into a younger corps was almost impossible to achieve.
The model-supported intervention significantly reduced the probable
risk of failure in policy design and implementation. A number of
achievements must be attributed to the model intervention per se.
First, the model’s base case projected a 100% surplus of senior
officers. This was an eye-opener. Moreover, the lack of suitable
options within the current policy regime became obvious. Finally, the
suitability of the new policy was convincingly presented and its
implementation success virtually secured. The success of the model
intervention is discussed. Though the most aggregated model sufficed
analytically, the existence of a more detailed model that reflected the
production system, crucially enhanced the analysis’ face validity,
especially as a cost analysis was called for. However, more critical
than the model’s transparency was that the results fell within the
comfort zone of most key stakeholders. The results challenged
intuitions enough so that the model was considered invaluable, but not
so much so as to question the approach.

Environmental Benefits and Economic
Rationale of Expanding the Italian Natural
Gas Private Car Fleet

Natural gas for automotive purposes is an appealing alternative:
curbing local and global pollution and dependence on foreign oil are
among the most remarkable advantages. The other side of the coin
implies building and maintaining an on purpose network entailing
financial requirements. The final aim of this work is to compare its
advantages with economic rationale. A system dynamics model is
built and taken as reference for all quantitative assertions. It contains
data referring to two scenarios: business as usual versus expansion.
The model treats separately global and local emi
infrastructure needs. Quantitative results are the basis for the final
assessment, that is grounded on the externalities’ theory. By analyzing
the scenarios’ gap numerous remarks follow. Regarding global
emissions, beneficial effects seem modest. Local emissions would
either decrease or not vary depending on the pollutant. Avoided
externalities estimates exceed infrastructure financial requirements.
Natural gas is a suitable answer in tackling some issues related to the
road transport industry.

46 23 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Yaman Barlas
ybarlas@boun.edu.tr

Bogazici University

Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul

Turkey

Suat Bog
shog@ku.edu.tr
Koc University

Pawel Bartoszezuk
b_pawel@hotmail.com
System Research Institute
Newelska 6

01447 Warsaw

Poland

Pankaj Barua
p_barua@tezu.ernet.in

Tezpur University

Business Administration Department
Assam 784028

India

Purnendu Mandal
mandal@marshall.edu
Marshall University
Lewis College of Business
400 Hal Greer Boulevard
Corby 412

Huntington WV 25705
USA

Rajib Goswami
rgos@tezu.ernet.in
Tezpur University

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA

Automated Dynamic Pattern Testing,
Parameter Calibration and Policy
Improvement

System Dynamics (SD) is a special type of simulation modeling
where output validity refers to validating the patterns of dynamic
behaviors, such as oscillations, growth or decline. The developers and
users of these models (the decision makers and people affected by
decisions based on such models) are all rightly concerned with
whether a model and its results are “valid.” Structural model validity
and validation have long been recognized as one of the main issues in
system dynamics. This concern is addressed through pattern
recognition and testing in this paper. Another issue in dynamic
simulation methodology is parameter calibration; assuming that the
structure of simulation model constructed by the user is valid.
Parameter calibration is the minimization of an error function which is
a measure of the correspondence between numerically calculated
output patterns and the respective real behavior patterns. We offer a
software that does automated parameter calibration with respect to a
given (desired) dynamic pattern. This particular feature can also be
used in policy improvement design.

Optimisation of Consumption with Emission

Our objective is to conduct simulations with economic
environmental model. We list the important and causal relationships
among the levels and trace the feedback loop structures. In describing
an economic and environmental model we focus on the relations
among income, consumption, emission, and damage. This paper
yields insight into maximization of welfare. Next, we present the
simulation runs of the model, conducted with the help of existing
system dynamics modeling tools.

BARISS (BAsin and River Information and
Simulation System): A Web Based DSS for
Water Resources using System Dynamics
Model

Abstract : A web based DSS framework for water resources
management on basin scale named as BARISS has been presented.
The dynamics of water consumption and availability has been
addressed in BARISS by using system dynamics as model base. The
model component has been integrated with a RDBMS based
information system to enhance its applicability. Applicability of
BARISS has been tested on Brahmaputra River Basin, India and
named as BRISS (Brahmaputra River Information and Simulation
System). BRISS has been presented as a web based DSS using thick
client and thin server approach and some examples of policy analysis
has been done . The emphasis of this study has been on designing the

47
Andrea Marcello Bassi
4141 @stud. liuc.it

University of Bergen

via Jean de Fernex 5

Olgiate Olona VA 21057

Italy

Tobias Lorenz
spaceS6@freenet.de
University of Bergen
Villaveien 3

5007 Bergen
Norway

Steffen Bayer
s.bayer@imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Tanaka Business School
South Kensington Campus
London SW7 2AZ UK

David Gann
d.gann@imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Tanaka Business School
South Kensington Campus
London SW7 2AZ UK

Ammon Salter
a.salter@imperial.ac.uk
Imperial College London
Tanaka Business School
South Kensington Campus
London SW7 2AZ UK

Todd BenDor
bendor@uiuc.edu
University of Illinois
111 Temple Buell Hall
611 Taft Drive
Champaign IL 61820
USA

framework rather than detailed policy analysis. The framework has
been designed as generic and platform independent with user-friendly
interface and can be used for any river system.

Management Flight Simulators: Development
of a Multiplayer, Asymmetric, Network, ILE

The importance of management flight simulators for learning has been
already tested and documented. Single player simulation games are
usually utilised, but a multiplayer simulation game adds direct
competition to the existing problems (delays, nonlinearities and
feedbacks). An asymmetric game also introduces bounded rationality
and the dynamics of the information flow within the team. A network
team game finally allows for the analysis of cooperation dynamics (by
letting the users play against each other: against an unpredictable
competitor, with no pre-defined strategy). This paper presents an
asymmetric multiplayer network game that is considered to be easy to
play and understand. The main advantage of the ILE here introduced
is the facilitation of the analysis of: learning and decision making
processes, cooperation and competition dynamics.

Balancing Work — Bidding Strategies and
Workload Dynamics in a Project-Based
Professional Service Organisation

Project-based professional service organisations supply their services
as tailored or one-off projects for specific clients. The particular form
of their organisation, the character of their relationships with their
clients necessary to deliver highly customised projects and the non-
routine, creative nature of the work come together in a way which
makes the management of these service firms particularly demanding.
A common challenge is fluctuation in the workload. While this is
partly influenced by changes in demand, the external environment
does not provide a comprehensive explanation and the interaction
between business processes and project processes needs to be
examined. In providing a generic explanation of the causes of
workload fluctuation as well as an assessment of different bidding
strategies based on a system dynamics model, this paper aims to help
to advance the theoretical understanding of the project-based
professional service organisation and ultimately to help to provide
tools for its managers.

Conceptual Modeling and Dynamic Simulation
of Brownfield Redevelopment

The negligent upkeep of many abandoned industrial sites
(“brownfields”) throughout the twentieth century has had grave
impacts on the urban landscape of American and European cities. In
recent years, brownfield redevelopment has come to be viewed as a
strategy for sustainable land use and urban revitalization. This study
assesses the feasibility of the construction of a dynamic simulation

48 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Sara Metcalf

ssm@uiue.edu

Uniy of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Dept of Geography Rm 220
Davenport

607 South Mathews Avenue
Urbana IL 61801-3671

USA

Céline Bérard
berard.celine@courrier.ugam.ca
University of Quebec at Montreal
School of Management

Martin Cloutier

cloutier. martin@ugam.ca

University of Quebec at Montreal
Dept Management and Technology
315 Ste-Catherine East

Montreal QC H2X 3X2

Canada

Luc Cassivi

cassivi.luc@ugam.ca

University of Quebec at Montreal
Dept of Management and
Technology

315 Ste Catherine East

Montreal Quebec H2X 3X2
Canada

Carmine Bianchi
bianchi@unipa.it

University of Palermo

c/o Business Dynamics SRL
Via Mazzini 59

90100 Palermo Italy

Graham W. Winch
graham.winch@plymouth.ac.uk
University of Plymouth
Plymouth Business School
Drake Circus

Plymouth PL4 8AA UK

model of urban brownfield redevelopment. Literature surrounding
brownfield redevelopment is reviewed and used to construct a
dynamic hypothesis of brownfield redevelopment as it relates to site
liability, economic viability, and availability of redevelopment
funding. Finally, an initial system dynamics model of the brownfield
redevelopment process is constructed. This quantitative analysis is
performed using the 2003 US Conference of Mayors brownfield
survey, which serves as a dataset on brownfield distribution and
average site size. We conclude with suggestions for the extension of
the model to capture spatial feedback in order to assess redevelopment
effects on the surrounding matrix of urban land-uses.

Performance Evaluation of Management
Information Systems in Clinical Trials: A
System Dynamics Approach

The complexity and characteristics of the pharmaceutical firm present
an intriguing context for underlying information management issues
during clinical trials for new drug development. This paper reports on
the evaluation and performance of MIS for information management
in clinical trials in new drug development. The main objective of the
study is to examine the economic and business impacts of automating
that process, to enhance our understanding of informational stakes
involved, using a system dynamics (SD) model. The SD method is
enriched in this paper with other conceptual frameworks such as
Alter’s (2001) Work Centered Analysis (WCA) and the Balanced
Scorecard (BSC) (Kaplan and Norton, 2001). Results of the
simulations for alternative sensitivity analyses on errors rates in data
transmissions, that is, on alternative error-rate specifications, do not
necessarily influence project delay, but rather work intensity. A
discussion details the usefulness of enriching the SD modeling
process with alternative conceptual frameworks in the problem
definition in such complex settings.

‘Stunted Growth’ in Small Firms: How to
Turn Them Round and Unleash Their
Potential

The phenomenon of ‘dwarf’ or ‘stunted’ small and micro firms (in
Italian nanismo aziendale) is recognised in the small business
literature. These are firms that have survived through many years,
maybe many generations, providing their owners with acceptable
returns and lifestyles, but have remained very small. They might
therefore represent potential lost opportunities for owners and, given
the importance of the SME sector, local employment and economies.
A system dynamics model replicating the basic no-growth, cyclical
behaviour attributed to “stunted” SMEs is firstly analysed. Alternative
policies arising from different entrepreneurial views and aimed at
changing behaviour to one of stability or steady growth, are then
tested and analysed. In this relatively simple form, the model does
link behaviours to system structure and could support individual
entrepreneurs in understanding the reasons for dwarfism in their firm

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 49
Carmine Bianchi
bianchi@unipa.it

University of Palermo

c/o Business Dynamics SRL
Via Mazzini 59

90100 Palermo Italy

Enzo Bivona
enzobivona@sciepol.unipa.it
University of Palermo
Faculty of Political Sciences
Via Maqueda 324

90100 Palermo Italy

Enzo Bivona
enzobivona@sciepol.unipa.it
University of Palermo
Faculty of Political Sciences
Via Maqueda 324

90100 Palermo Italy

Francesco Ceresia
feeresia@libero.it
University of Palermo
Faculty of Psychology

and the potential for unleashing growth. It could also form the basis
for a more detailed model to support the identification and evaluation
of strategic alternatives in individual firms.

Using System Dynamics ILEs in Service
Business Interventions

Modelling knowledge in SD organisational interventions may become
a puzzling task because of difficulties in achieving a common shared
view among business key-actors about the impact of Intellectual
Capital (IC) investments on future company performance. Such
difficulties are not only related to the intangible nature of IC, but also
to the indirect role of knowledge in affecting performance drivers and
outcomes. This phenomenon is particularly relevant in service
businesses, where intangibles account for a high percentage of total
assets. In order to overcome such problems, a conceptual framework
has been developed by the authors to build a generic SD model aimed
to support business decision makers in IC planning, with particular
regard to service firms. Such model has provided the basis for
developing two ILEs focused on a telecom mobile service provider
and an insurance company. The first application was related to an
education project, while the second one was linked to a consulting
assignment. The use of a conceptual framework as a basis to build an
ILE has proved to be a successful strategy in order to better
communicate business key-actors the potential of SD in modelling
and assessing IC policies. Main key-issues underlying model
development and the ILEs’ application are discussed in the paper, and
most significant outcomes from simulations are commented.

Designing Long Term Oriented Policies to
Build Strong Manufacturer-Dealer
Relationships: A System Dynamics Approach

In today’s economy all manufacturers need to pay attention on how to
build strong and long-term relationships with their dealers’ chain. In
fact, it has been demonstrated that short term policies aimed to
provide dealers immediate benefits (e.g., price discounts) may prevent
the development of long term and fruitful relationships. Also
supporting dealers in promoting manufacturers’ products has been
proved as a sustainable strategy in long run. Another implication of
manufacturers bounded policies refers to their inclination to reinvest
significant amounts of their sales revenues in advertising and product
portfolio improvement, without taking into account the need to invest
in dealers’ human resources, to make their strategies sustainable.
Based of the above remarks, this paper aims to demonstrate the
usefulness of a system dynamics approach in involving both
manufacturers and dealers in strategic reasoning. Empirical evidence
arising from a research project conducted by the authors with a
manufacture operating in a high-tech industry, shows that using
system dynamics as a methodology to support communication and
learning may act as a significant lever to design successful long term

50 23 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Enzo Bivona
enzobivona@sciepol.unipa.it
University of Palermo
Faculty of Political Sciences
Via Maqueda 324

90100 Palermo Italy

Giovan Battista
Montemaggiore
giannimonte@hotmail.com
University of Palermo
Via del Segugio 8
90125 Palermo Italy

Jason W. Black
jwblack@mit.edu

MIT

134 Third Street #2
Cambridge MA 02141
USA

oriented policies. Such policies ought to increase dealers’ skills and
motivation, and improve potential customers’ awareness of product
benefits, at the same time.

Evaluating Fleet Maintenance and
Management Strategies through a System
Dynamics Model in a City Bus Company

The evolution of fleet maintenance and management policies
highlights the growing importance of maintenance issues in both
private and public companies. The need to improve maintenance
performance requires an accurate evaluation of the trade-off between
costs and benefits related to alternative fleet maintenance and
management policies. However, the complexity of maintenance
system makes this evaluation a very difficult task. More often a fleet
manager deals with the following key issues: ¢ is it more profitable to
repair or to renew the company fleet? ¢ Is it more convenient to reduce
the average age of the different assets (e.g., by increasing investments
in new bus) or to expand the maintenance activities (e.g., by rising
repairing costs)? In fact, fleet managers cannot ignore the impact of
their decisions on both company service and financial performance
over time. Aim of this paper is to show how the System Dynamics
approach can effectively support fleet managers in designing and
evaluating their strategies. The simulation model here presented is
based on the result of a project with two Italian city bus companies.
Through such tool decision makers can test different fleet strategies
and assess their effects on company performance.

Diffusion Of Demand Response Technology In
Electricity Systems

Electric power systems are traditionally designed and developed with
the assumption that demand is exogenous to the system. Connecting
the feedbacks from the system to consumers will provide incentives
for consumers to reduce demand during periods of high system prices.
A system dynamics model is used to analyze the dynamics and long
term implications of adoption of technology to enable demand
response. The model includes the decision by consumers to adopt
demand response technology along with decisions by investors to
build generation capacity. The adoption process reduces overall
system prices for peak demand periods, creating feedbacks with
generation investment. The effects of technology improvement via
learning, long term demand elasticity, and policies to promote
adoption are considered. The results of the simulations show that
diminishing returns to adopters and significant externalities in terms
of free rider effects limit the attraction of individual adoption. A
subsidy to alleviate the costs to individuals can be justified by the
significant system level savings from widespread adoption. Several
pernicious effects can emerge from large scale demand response,
however, including increased price volatility due to a reduction in
generation capacity reserve margin, an increase in long term demand,
and increased emissions from the substitution of coal plants for
natural gas and renewable generation capacity.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 51
Mercedes Bleda

mercedes.bleda@mbs.ac.uk
University of Manchester

Insitute of Innovation Research
Booth Street West Harold Hankins
Bldg

Manchester M13 9PL UK

Simon Shackley
simon.shackley@manchester.ac.uk
Manchester Business School
Pariser Building H8

PO Box 88

M60 1QD Manchester UK

Mary Bourne
bourneml@jmu.edu

James Madison University
ISAT 153 MSC 4107
Harrisonburg VA 22807
USA

Michael L. Deaton
deatonml@jmu.edu

James Madison University
Integrated Science and Tech MSC
4102

Harrisonburg VA 22807

USA

Jeffrey Boyer
jeff_boyer@plugpower.com
Plug Power Inc

968 Albany Shaker Road
Latham NY 12110

USA

John Elter
john_elter@plugpower.com
Plug Power Inc

968 Albany Shaker Road
Latham NY 12110

USA

The Formation of Belief in Climate Change in
Business Organisations: A Simulation Model

This paper aims to develop a simulation model of the formation of the
belief in climate change of business organisations using a systems
dynamics approach. A good understanding of how decision-makers in
business organisations change their perceptions and beliefs regarding
climatic issues, and modify the form, function and strategy of their
organisations accordingly, constitutes the base for an analysis of
business adaptive behaviour in relation to climate change. The main
assumption of the model is that the dynamics of the belief in climate
change that businesses hold is driven essentially by the perceived
actual and potential changes in competitiveness associated with the
occurrence of climate related events. That is, the way belief in climate
change is formed in business organisations is driven more by
economic interests rather than by the growth of an ecological
‘business conscience’. The model has been built based upon
theoretical hypotheses drawn from behavioural studies of
organisations, organisational learning theories, and evolutionary
theories of adaptation and change.

The Dynamics of Identity Theft: A
Comparison of Symptomatic and Systemic
Solutions

This paper presents a dynamic hypothesis explaining the system
dynamics underlying the identity theft epidemic. The causal loop
structure synthesizes current understanding of the problem and
suggests that any strategy to address the identity theft epidemic by
primarily focusing on prosecuting thieves without effectively
mitigating the underlying forces is doomed to failure. The causal loop
diagram elucidates the dominant feedback structure ...a collection of
rapid-feedback, self-reinforcing dynamics that generate ample
opportunities for would-be thieves. Preliminary results from the
analysis provide a foundation for exploring policy options through a
full working model, yet to be developed.

The Dynamic Behavior of a Zero-to-Landfill
Strategy for Consumer Products

Environmental strategies such as Zero-to-Landfill are gaining
increasing attention throughout the world. Product take back is a
significant means of ensuring that products that have reached the end
of their useful lives are reclaimed for reuse, remanufacturing, or
recycling. Such a strategy is expected to minimize environmental
impacts, reduce overall resource consumption, and provide economic
value to manufacturers and consumers. The reverse logistics,
however, can be quite complicated as product collection, product
disassembly, processing, component returns, and component
reclamation must be considered. Further, the costs and magnitude of

52 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Bill Braun

bbraun@ursuline.edu

Ursuline College

3833 Kirkwood Road

Cleveland Heights OH 44121-1803
USA

Berndt Brehmer
berndt.brehmer@fhs.mil.se

Swedish National Defence College
PO Box 27805

SE-115 93 Stockholm

Sweden

Fredrik Elg
freel@gmx.net
Vanguard Strategy
68 Long Acre
London WC2E 9JG
UK

the requisite system must be projected to support appropriate planning
and execution. In this paper, we present a model of a reverse logi:
system for a consumer product. The impacts of closed-loop logistics
on product adoption rate, product costs, and component reliabilities
are balanced against the cost of new infrastructure, shipping and
tracking, and processing and inventorying of expended components.
We illustrate how a reverse logistics approach may develop as a
function of product adoption, the total value of returned components,
product reliability, and product lifetime. A Zero-to-Landfill strategy
has a significant potential to improve the triple bottom line — people,
planet, and profit — of companies that adopt it.

The Dynamics of Economic Value Depletion: A
Proposal for Accelerated Feedback Loops in
Production and Purchasing Decisions

Organizations may fail to adopt sustainable solutions as a result of
incomplete and/or inaccurate feedback into the decision making
process. Events that cause harm - environmental, health, or social - are
commonly the delayed effect of a prior course of action, itself the
result of decisions that emerge from endogenous policy. By
accelerating the cost of future harm into current period decisions,
producers and purchasers have greater access to the quantity and
quality of information that influence decisions to produce and
consume. The creation of a financial policy structure that makes
future, long-term costs of production, promotion, and consumption
explicit in the decision process will correct a current deficiency in the
analysis of costs and benefits made by producers and purchasers. Such
a feedback loop would correct a structural market failure and could
reduce the need for governmental regulation.

Heuristics in Dynamic Decision Making:
Coping with the Time Constants of a Dynamic
Task by Doing Something Else

Laboratory studies have shown that people cannot handle the time
con-stants in dynamic tasks. Yet they obviously cope with such tasks
with some success outside the laboratory. This study is one in a series
of studies that examine the hypothesis that people cope by relying on
heuristics that allow them to simplify the task. The heuristic studied
here was that of relying on frequency differences, i.e., what Reason
(1990) calls frequency gambling. It examines the effects of varying
the relative frequency of scenarios that require different responding,
and where relying on frequency rather than learning the actual time
con-stants will lead to some success. The results show that the
participants did not learn the time constants, that frequency had a
strong effect on their decisions, but that their responding also seemed
to be influenced by another heuristic identified in earlier studies, viz.,
that of rapid and massive responding. Implications of these findings
for system dynamics modellers are discussed.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 53
Uro’ Breskvar
dafko@email.si

University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva 55a

4000 Kranj Slovenia

Douglas Brown
drb33@cornell.edu
Cornell University
313 Warren Hall
Ithaca NY 14853
USA

Fernando Buendia
fernando.buendia@udlap.mx
University of the Americas Puebla
Santa Catarina Martir

Cholula Puebla

Mexico

Warehouse Stock Optimization with Visual
Continuous and Discrete Simulation

This paper describes warehouse stock optimization with continuous
and discrete simulation. Warehouse optimization is a part on
integrated business information system with a task of providing help
to operative management level at important decisions referring to
production activities. The first goal was to validate the model of the
actual system using some defined ordering strategy with a
consideration of actual consumption. Ordering strategy consists of
order frequency and order quantity. The second goal was to find
optimal ordering strategy, by using two simulation methods, minding
minimal holding and ordering costs. Several optimization algorithms
were used with both simulation methods.

A Spatiotemporal Model of Shifting
Cultivation and Forest Cover Dynamics

Shifting cultivation is the primary means of livelihood for subsistence
farmers throughout the humid forests of the tropics. They rely on the
forest landscape as a source of fertile land to sustain their livelihood.
Sustainable use of the resource base requires long periods of fallow
and the ability to move the zone of active cultivation from one
location to another over time. At the individual patch or field level,
shifting cultivation is essentially a resource extraction problem
somewhat akin to a pulse fishery — intensive use of the stock of soil
fertility for a short period followed by a long idle period to allow
regeneration of the stock. This paper describes a spatiotemporal model
of resource extraction adapted to the use of forest resources by
shifting cultivators. In contrast to other models of spatial resource
exploitation, decision criteria depend on a nonseparable agricultural
household model extended to accommodate both the temporal and
spatial dimensions. The paper focuses on the theoretical issues related
to modeling shifting cultivation. It concludes with a demonstration of
the concept in a dynamic simulation model of subsistence agricultural
production in southern Cameroon implemented using Simile, a
software tool for computer simulation of complex dynamic systems
especially suited to modeling human-environment interactions.

Increasing Returns to Economic Acti
Agglomeration

This paper introduces the notion of increasing returns to economic
activity agglomeration and develops a formal system-dynamic model
where this notion is used to explain the self-organizing nature of the
spatial structure of industrial clusters. In this model, both pecuniary
and external economies based on knowledge spillovers are
considered.

54 23 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Newton Paulo Bueno
npbueno@ufv.br

Federal University of Vigosa
Dept de Economia Campus
Universitario

36571-000 Vigosa Minas Gerais
Brazil

Ali Afsin Bulbul
afsinbulbul@yahoo.com
Portland State University
Harder House

1604 SW 10th Avenue
Portland OR 97201 USA

Stabilization Policy Debate, Control Theory
and System Dynamics Metholology

The objective of the paper is to show that the one of the main source
of macroeconomic investment instability is similar to that which
makes difficult managing supply line in famous Beer Game developed
by the system dynamics group of MIT Sloan School of Management.
It will be pointed out that ignoring production time delays causes
instability not because economic agents simply ignore supply line
delays, but because they adjust their expectations more rapidly than
the delays involved in supply lines, whatever those delays could be.
The paper is structured in three sections. In the first we present the
classic Phillips’ argument about unintentional destabilizing effects of
stabilization policy in modern dynamic system language, in order to
show how to build a simplified macroeconomic supply line model for
investment dynamics; in the second section, the macroeconomic
model is developed and simulated. Third section concludes the paper
suggesting that the inclusion of production time delays in
macroeconomic models reopens the space to the control theory in
stabilization policy debate.

Capturing Project Dynamics with a New
Project Management Tool: Project
Management Simulation Model (PMSM)

Capturing Project Dynamics with a New Project Management Tool:
Project Management Simulation Model (PMSM) Ali Afsin Bulbul
Portland State University Systems Science Ph.D. Program Harder
House 1604 SW 10th Ave. Portland, OR 97201 Phone: (503) 221-
4576 Fax: (503) 725-8489 afsin@pdx.edu In this research, traditional
project management concepts, methods, and their deficiencies relative
to increasing complexity of projects is discussed. System Dynamics
(SD) modeling is proposed as a complementary project management
tool to be used at the higher level to augment operational level project
management methods. The potential usage of SD models to promote
the learning from projects, both in individual and organizational
dimensions, is discussed. Working as a project management
laboratory, SD project models can be successfully used to improve
understanding of the project process. They can be used to design the
project in the project-planning phase, to monitor and control the
project in the project-execution phase, and to learn from the project in
the post-mortem phase working as a learning infrastructure. A generic
SD project management simulation model (PMSM) is built to serve
for this purpose. The model structure and the graphical user interface
are explained briefly. Tests performed to validate the model revealed
that the model is appropriately designed, works properly, and it is
robust relative to the purpose of the model.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 55
James Burke
jay@anl.gov

Argonne National Laboratory
9700 S Cass Ave Building 900
Argonne IL 60439

USA

John R. Hummel
jhummel@anl.gov

Argonne National Laboratory
Decision and Information Sciences
Div

9700 South Cass Avenue

Argonne IL 60439-4832 USA

James R. Burns
jburns@ba.ttu.edu

Texas Tech University

Rawls College of Business Admin
15th and Flint

Lubbock TX 79409-2101 USA

Balaji Janamanchi
bjanamanchi@ba.ttu.edu

Texas Tech University

Rawls College of Business ISQS
Box 42101

Lubbock TX 79409-2101 USA

James R. Burns
jburns@ba.ttu.edu

Texas Tech University

Rawls College of Business Admin
15th and Flint

Lubbock TX 79409-2101 USA

Balaji Janamanchi
bjanamanchi@ba.ttuedu

Texas Tech University

Rawls College of Business ISQS
Box 42101

Lubbock TX 79409-2101 USA

System Dynamics Characterizations of the
Defense Industrial Base Critical Infrastructure

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is funding the
development of a Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support
System (CIP DSS) that is intended to be used by DHS decision
makers to assess the impacts of deliberate attacks or disruptions on the
United States’ infrastructures and how they might be mitigated by
investments in protective or recovery technologies. One of the 17
critical infrastructures is the “Defense Industrial Base.” The basic
mechanisms of such a model are the flows, especially surge response
flows, of war materiel from private sector defense industries to the
Department of Defense (DoD). In order to capture surge flows,
additional models of military logistics, especially deployment, and
military missions are needed to drive the behavior of interest. Basic
system dynamics models are being considered to provide this
feedback to the basic mechanisms. With this consideration of military
mission effectiveness, the models main output decision metric is an
estimation of casualties, which presents its own system dynamics
modeling challenges.

Offshoring Knowledge Worker Jobs — Boom
or Burst for the US Economy

This paper takes a system dynamics perspective of the contemporary
trend of “Offshoring Knowledge Worker jobs from USA” to gain a
better and deeper understanding of the results and implications of the
trend, its impact on the jobs and workforce dynamics. The results not
only support the viewpoint of economists that offshoring is beneficial
to the economy, but also highlight another impending phenomena just
round the corner, namely the slow rate of growth of workforce. Net
U.S. workforce growth is slowing because seventy-one million baby
boomers are beginning to retire. In this context, model outputs suggest
that offshoring is postponing the undesirable state of U.S. jobs
outstripping the U.S. workforce by nearly five years. Thereby, policy-
makers have longer to find effective solutions to tackle the impending
shortage of workforce in decades to follow. The model suggests that
offshoring could not have come at a better time for the US economy.

Project Dynamics with Applications to Change
Management and Earned Value Tracking

In this paper, we present a novel project management model that
incorporates several features yet to be actively addressed in the
literature and focuses on earned value management. The model
utilizes the basic structures employed in building project dynamics
models. The effects of time-varying project team size, of training and
communication overload, and of change management are incorporated
into our model. With the help of our model and a hypothetical
software technology project, we demonstrate how our system
dynamics model can contribute beyond basic project tools like MS

56 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Lester P. J. Burton
lester. burton@basell.com
Basell USA

912 Appleton Road
Elkton MD 21921 USA

Seetha Coleman-Kammula
seetha.coleman-kammula@basell.com
Basell USA Inc

912 Appleton Road

Elkton MD 21921USA

John Sterman
jsterman@mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142 USA.

David F. Andersen
david.andersen@albany.edu
University at Albany
315A Milne Hall

135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA

George P. Richardson
gpr@albany.edu

University at Albany

Dept of Public Administration &
Policy

Milne 101 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222 USA

Carlos Capelo
carlos.capelo@galpenergia.com
ISCTE

Aldeamento Vale Sao Giao
Alameda das Acacias 50
2665-381 Milharado Portugal

Joao Ferreira Dias
filias@iscte. pt

ISCTE

CACIFO 238-B

Av Forcas Armadas
1600-083 Lisboa Portugal

Project, in generating the earned value management indicators
required by project managers under different scenarios and starting
assumptions. Results are consistent with well-known behavior of
projects in that the later the changes arrive, the longer is the delay in
completing the projects. These phenomena are propagated through the
earned value measures to see the actual effects upon schedule and cost
performance indices. The study also focuses on the use of earned
value measures as well as critical chain concepts to understand how
these separately impact project duration and cost.

A System Dynamics Study of a Commodity
Plastics Industry

Faced with new challenges in managing the cyclical and volatile
business environment, management at a Commodity Plastic (COM-P)
Company agreed to apply System Dynamics (SD) to support strategy
development. A SD model of COM-P industry was built by adapting
the Pulp and Paper Model. The structure of COM-P Index Price
creation was mapped and added to the generic model. The following
were investigated: a) The effect of current delays in adjusting prices
on phantom demand, on capacity utilization and shipment rates; b)
The phenomenon of Phantom demand or pre-buying when customers
perceive that prices may be about to go up was modeled; c) By
applying the model, the amount of margin lost or gained by the
industry due to the price protection terms in the contracts was
estimated; d) The risk in the top ten long term contracts under
different supply and demand conditions and oil prices in order to
support the sales organization with their negotiations; e) The model
was applied to get guidance on capital investment timing and to assess
the effect of different oil prices and supply & demand scenarios on the
profitability of new investments. In many cases the results were
counter-intuitive.

Double Learning and Performance
Improvement with the Balanced Scorecard — A
Simulation-Based Experiment

Kaplan and Norton propose a double-loop process that integrates the
concepts of Balanced Scorecard and Strategy Map to support
managers to define and implement the firm strategy more effectively.
The BSC is a performance management system based on a set of few
and critical indicators. These key performance indicators are linked
together in a causal diagram that represents the hypotheses about the
strategy. This approach supports what Argyris calls double-loop
learning which facilitates the strategic learning of managers and leads
to better performance. This type of learning produces changes in

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 57
Edoardo Cavalieri-D'Oro
edo@ed0.it

LIUC

Via Molino 14

21047 Saronna VA Italy

Michael Golay
golay@mit.edu

MIT

Nuclear Department

Robert Y. Cavana
bob.cavana@vuw.ac.nz

Victoria University of Wellington
PO Box 600

Wellington

New Zealand

manager assumptions about cause-and-effect relationships and leads
to a better understanding of the context, what means a process by
which managers can explicit and improve their mental models about
the business system. This article describes a simulation-based research
for testing a system of hypotheses about the influence of the BSC
approach on strategic learning and performance, which uses a System
Dynamics-based micro world.

Preparing for the Near-Term Deployment of
New Nuclear Fission Technologies: A SD
Analysis of the Nuclear Market’s Behaviours

A method of overall analysis for a compared evaluation of various
nuclear fission and fourth generation units is here described. In this
paper a series of questions related to the near-term deployment of new
nuclear technologies in the US and Worldwide are answered and
validated by reproducing the mechanisms that drove the nuclear
market to the actual configuration. It is then presented a simplified
model of the form often used to project market competition ad hoc
configured for the case of the energy production by nuclear power.
The reproduced mechanisms of interest as well as the out coming
model had been designed following the SD approach since it was
considered a most suitable and necessary tool for the research and
evaluation of the typical feedback effects, which are characteristic of
the destination market. The most outstanding mechanism in terms of
importance, uniqueness and significance was undoubtedly the “lock-in
effect,” also referred to as long-term market domination. According to
the lock-in phenomenon, even though a nuclear power plant is less
attractive from a technical point of view it can take control of the
market by being the first to be installed or by moving faster along its
learning curve.

Revisiting Medium Term Macro-economic
Scenarios (1985 — 1995) Generated by a System
Dynamics Model of the New Zealand Economy

This paper revisits the macro-economic modelling and medium term
scenarios undertaken at the New Zealand Planning Council (now
disbanded) in the mid 1980's. The following major reports were
published: "A Macro-Economic Model and Scenarios to 1995" (by
Eric Haywood & Bob Cavana) and "Towards 1995: Patterns of
National and Sectoral Development" (by Dennis Rose, Adolf
Stroombergen, et al). These reports discussed the development and
use of a macro-economic system dynamics model (SDMACRO), used
to generate trends for the main macro-economic variables, and a
general equilibrium price sensitive sectoral model (JULIANNE),
which generated compatible sectoral and national forecasts of a range
of variables for each of 22 sectors for nominated years. The
(JULIANNE) model used outputs from (SDMACRO) as constraints
and inputs. A brief overview of the SDMACRO model and its use at
the NZ Planning Council will be presented. Also, the reforms of the
New Zealand economy that have taken place since the mid 1980’s

58 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Liang-Cheng Chang
9142809@student.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University
70 Lien-hai Rd

Kaohsiung 804

Taiwan ROC

Yi-Ming Tu
ymtu@mis.nsysu.edu.tw

National Sun Yat-Sen University
Dept of Information Management
Systems

70 Lian Hai Rd She-Tze Wan
Kaohsiung 804 Taiwan

Jie Chen
chjie_2@hotmail.com
University of Bergen
System Dynamics Group
Fantoft PB 945

5075 Bergen Norway

Yibai Chen

chyb@nje.en

Nanjing AV Educational Center
No 5 Cibeishe

Nanjing 210029 China

Hongbing Zhu
Jinling High School

No 169 Zhongshan Road
Nanjing 210005 China

will be summarised and a comparison of the SDMACRO scenarios
will be provided against what actually happened over the period
between 1985 to 1995. Finally, the paper indicates the development
that has taken place with the macro-economic model and how it is
currently being used.

Attempt to Integrate System Dynamics and
UML in Business Process Modeling

The integration of information systems and business process will
affect competitive advantages of firms. In order to develop
information system, modeling of business process is a fundamental
work of system analysis and design. System dynamics is useful to
solve non-linear, complex, time delay and feedback problems of
business processes. However it still belongs to a special field of
modeling language because it can’t be integrated well with
information systems in organizations. The purpose of this paper is to
integrate system dynamics with UML and thus they can be developed
synchronously during information systems implementation in
enterprise. For this reason, integrated development process and system
architecture with system dynamics and UML have also been proposed
in this paper.

Modeling Shanghai Real Estate Market

In this paper, I try to grasp the inner significance of abnormally
sustaining house price growth, or so-called house market bubble in
Shanghai real estate industry by the tool of system dynamics which
especially focuses on the systems with highly dynamic characteristics,
and complicated feedback relationships involved, which is consistent
with the real estate market system. The most fundamental purpose of
this project is to see whether it is the speculators’ intervention that
causes the problem of unsuitable high price in Shanghai house market
or not and to see what kind of impacts both on the aspects of society
and economic fields will be after the trend of speculation is quenched.
This paper mainly divides the system into 6 parts, population and
economy sector, family house demand sector, speculators’ demand
sector, speculators’ profitability sector, house price sector, and house
construction and sale sector to analyze how these subsystem can
directly or indirectly work on the whole real estate industry in
Shanghai.

Pleasantly Surprised in Applying Systems
Thinking to Teaching High School Students

The system thinking is a kind of new thinking mode that fostering the
creative ability. It already has some successful applied experience
abroad, particularly in education. In the chemistry teaching ——
especially the calculation of chemical equation of high
schools&#65292;students are always puzzled by the numerous and
complicated superficies of chemical equation and hardly grasp its
mathematics essence&#65292;which result in bad teaching effect.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 59
Min Jiang
jljiangmin@hotmail.com

Nanjing Jinling High School
No 169 Zhongshan Road
Nanjing Jiangsu 210005 China

Yonggen Yuan

Nanjing Normal University
High School

37 Chahaer Road

Nanjing China

Yu Chen
vierro87@163.com

Nanjing Normal University
High School

37 Chahaer Road

Nanjing China

Yuqin Yao

Nanjing Normal University
High School

37 Chahaer Road

Nanjing China

Martin Cloutier
cloutier.martin@uqam.ca

University of Quebec at Montreal
Dept Management and Technology
315 Ste-Catherine East

Montreal QC H2X 3X2

Canada

Céline Bérard
berard.celine@courrier.ugam.ca
University of Quebec at Montreal
School of Management

Luce Cassivi

cassivi.luc@ugam.ca

University of Quebec at Montreal
Dept of Management and
Technology

315 Ste Catherine East

Montreal Quebec H2X 3X2
Canada

This dissertation makes some beneficial quests. Aiming at the relevant
problem of the calculation of chemical equation, we put up some
teaching practice in 5 classes by using the system thinking method
and its related software STELLA, such as the teacher's brief
introduction to the software, the basic calculation model establishment
way and student’s activity etc. In this process, students can hold the
calculation regulation more effectively. At the same time, the study
moving ability between teachers and students also improves
dramatically, which leads to the exciting development in other realms.

Research on the Change Process of the Curved
Roof of Chinese Ancient Architecture by
System Dynamics

As a high school student who really enjoy the world of architecture, I
use the Stella software to have a try on explaining the former of the
curved roof of Chinese ancient architecture by system dynamics view:
the factors we call “structure”, “practical”, “aesthetic judgment”,
“economy” affect each other. The trend of the using of the curved roof
was increased a lot at first, and then reached a balance eventually; the
explanation itself has caused and satisfied my interest of a kind of
research. But something more important is that I have cemented an
opinion here: in our world, physical and mental (we call it a system),
so many social phenomena exist under the control of different basic
factors. It’s more complicated than we expect most of the time.
Luckily the system dynamics view makes us face the complicating
world in a deeper, wider sight, and retrace the procedure of its former
and change. Then we can make sense of world better. So this kind of
try has encouraged me a lot.

Diffusion of an Innovative Biotechnology: The
Case of Plant-Derived Vaccines using System
Dynamics

The possible diffusion of plant-derived vaccine (PDV) biotechnology
in developing countries offers an interesting potential substitute to
existing more expensive vaccine technology currently available on the
market. This paper is concerned with the potential impact that the
introduction of such a technology could have on the cost of
immunization, and also, more broadly on the incidence of hepatitis B
cases on India’s population overtime. The objective of the paper is to
look at the hypothetical issues of a PDV diffusion using a system
dynamics (SD) model. Some illustrative results are presented to show
the interaction between infection rates, mortality rates, and
immunization costs. In spite of promising features, such as much
lower production costs, institutional hurdles to a widespread diffusion
of the technology still need to be overcome.

60 23 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
David L. Cooke
dicooke@ucalgary.ca
University of Calgary
1008 Beverley Blvd SW
Calgary AB T2V 2C5
Canada

Thomas R. Rohleder
tom.rohleder@haskayne.ucalgary.ca
University of Calgary

Haskayne School of Business
2500 University Drive NW
Calgary AB T2N IN4

Canada

Adolfo Crespo Marquez
adolfo.crespo@esi.us.es

University of Seville

School of Engineering

Camino de los Descubrimientos s/n
41092 Seville

Spain

Matthew A. Cronin
mcronin@gmu.edu

George Mason University
School of Management

Mail Stop 5FS

Fairfax VA 22030-4444 USA

Cleotilde Gonzalez
conzalez@andrew.cmu.edu

Carnegie Mellon University

Social and Decision Sciences
5000 Forbes Ave Porter Hall 223C
Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA

A Conceptual Model of Operational Risk

This paper addresses the question of whether there is a conceptual
model that can explain operational risk in a wide range of
organizations. It utilizes case studies and other research literature to
build on the foundation laid by previous modeling research into
system failures. The validity of the model is tested by how well it fits
the parameters of operational risk failures and successes in case
studies representing a diverse range of situations in manufacturing,
mining, financial services and government.

Front-end, Back-end and Integration Issues in
Virtual Supply Chain Dynamics Modeling

In this paper we discuss the way in which dynamic modeling can be
used to deal with front-end, back-end and integration issues in current
high-tech virtual supply chains (SC). In a first part of the paper we
review and propose dynamic modeling options to connect customer
value to business targets. This is done by explaining how to
characterize target market by formalizing what are often informal but
deeply held beliefs about what drives their customers’ purchase
decisions. We explain how dynamic models may help to connect
planned investments to expected improvements in the customer's
perception of the product critical attributes and thus increase sales,
revenue, and market share. In a second part of the paper we review
and discuss the operational and financial effectiveness of existing
virtual tools used in supply chain integration. We discuss how
dynamic modeling may help to obtain a comprehensive model of
supply chain integration. A modeling effort that can be used for the
analysis of the effectiveness of various levels of integration. In a third
part of the paper we discuss and explain experiences in modeling
different types of supplier contracts to accomplish varying degrees of
security and flexibility.

Understanding the Building Blocks of Dynamic
Systems: What Is the Problem, Really?

Previous research has shown that individuals fail to understand the
basic building blocks of complex systems such as stocks and flows,
feedbacks, and time delays. This paper presents three empirical
studies intended to understand why individuals misperceive the
relationships between stocks and flows. We used problems that were
quite familiar to the participants, interventions to motivate participants
to think harder in the problem, simplifications of graphs and direction
of attention to specific aspects of the graphs. The results seem to
disclose some of the mechanisms that individuals use to make their
inferences about the graphs. That is, individuals attend to the most
salient features of the graphical representation to make their
inferences about the stock in the task. Does this really imply a

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 61
Didier Cumenal
dcumenal@groupeisc.com

ISC Paris

22 Boulevard du Fort de Vaux
Cedex 17

75848 Paris

France

Parviz Daneshgari
perry@mea.net

3040 Airpark Drive South
Flint MI 48507

USA

Frank Murdock
fnurdock@mca.net

MCA Inc

3040 Airpark Drive South Suite C
Flint MI 48507

USA

misunderstanding of stocks and flows? We believe the further
research needs to address this problem in realistic presentations rather
than graphical representations.

mulating Organizational Change: Moving
and Shaking

We still know very little about the long-term learning patterns of
organizations. Analysis tends to favor the more immediate factors
over more distant ones. We focus on synchronic portrayals of the
organization while ignoring diachronic representations. The model
presented here analyzes changes in the state of the organization over
time. It describes and investigates the totality of forces and actions
that generate the organization's dynamic. It offers a speeded-up aging
of the organization intended to bring out, over time, the counter-
intuitive effects of decisions. Moreover, it endeavors to identify the
“cost drivers” that contribute to increasing or shrinking the firm's
profits. We have used the meta-model that we developed to derive an
application model whose purpose is to reproduce the long-term life of
an organization. Our simulation speeds up the aging of the
organization, enabling us 1) to show the counter-intuitive effects of
decisions over the long term versus the short term, and 2) to highlight
the cost drivers that generate hidden costs. Through its decisions, the
firm gives rise to its own factors of development and decline: its own
actions eventually change both the organization's health and its
properties.

Operational Model for Improving System
Productivity of Distributors: Internal Cost
Drivers

Distribution must make a decision regarding its role in the specialty
contracting supply chain. It can continue its historical role as
wholesale/retail combination and hope for profitability, or it can
choose to manage the channel by providing low cost products and
services. Profitability can only come through system productivity.
System productivity depends on recognition and elimination of waste
in the current operations and can be further improved by operational
process innovation. The cost drivers (CDs) of distributors can be
impacted by identifying and addressing internal inefficiencies, effects
of customer interactions, and the impact of suppliers on price and
delivery. By managing the following elements, distributors can
improve their bottom line by better than 30%: 1. First-time pass yield
of order taking and delivery 2. Identification and reduction of waste 3.
Customer point of entry This paper suggests a methodology for
improving the system productivity through management of these
elements.

62 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Brian C. Dangerfield
b.e.dangerfield@salford.ac.uk
University of Salford

Centre for OR & Applied Statistics
Maxwell Building The Crescent
Salford M5 4WT UK

Lori Dauelsberg
lorid@lanl.gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663 MS K557

Los Alamos NM 87545

USA

Alexander Outkin
outkin@lanl.gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
MS K575

Los Alamos NM 87544

USA

Michael A. Deegan
md7875@albany.edu
University at Albany

56F Weis Road

Albany NY 12208

USA

Towards a Transition to a Knowledge
Economy: How System Dynamics is Helping
Sarawak Plan its Economic and Social
Evolution

Accounts of the real-world use of system dynamics as a policy
evaluation tool in macro-economic management are relatively rare.
This paper offers an overview of current research being undertaken
for the government of the State of Sarawak in E. Malaysia where an
SD model is being formulated to inform the State’s future economic
and social planning to 2020. Although still a work-in-progress,
enough has been achieved to enable an interim account of the research
to be written. Positive engagement with State government officials at
the highest level has put system dynamics on the map in this corner of
SE Asia.

Modeling Economic Impacts to Critical
Infrastructures in a System Dynamics
Framework

Our paper presents a model of economic impacts arising from
disruptions to critical infrastructures. This model is a component of
the Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System
(CIP/DSS) which simulates the dynamics of a set of interconnected
individual infrastructures. We use factors of production (such as
energy, telecommunications, and labor) from the CIP/DSS model to
estimate the effects of interruptions to these infrastructures. The
system dynamics approach we use is compared to equilibrium-based
approaches such as input-output modeling. This method allows an
understanding of the economic benefits of various protective
measures. We incorporate non-equilibrium dynamics that arise from
these disruptions to provide values for various economic impacts such
as lost revenues and lost sales. The results from a disruption due to an
infectious disease outbreak are presented. We show that the effects of
quarantine dominate the overall economic impacts in a number of
cases.

Extreme Event Policy Design: A Conceptual
Model to Analyze Policies and the Policy
Process for Natural Hazards

Extreme Events are low probability, high consequence events, often
resulting in billions of dollars of damage each year in the United
States. Natural hazard issues connect experts in the natural science
and social science, which complicates the problem for policymakers
who may have balance multiple objectives as well as short term and
long term goals. The recent devolution revolution trend in government
has made its way to natural hazard policy domains. There is more
pressure on local communities to create and implement mitigation

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 63
Sonja Derrick
sonja.derrick@plymouth.ac.uk
University of Plymouth
Postgraduate Medical Centre
Derriford Hospital
Plymouth PL6 8DH UK

Graham W. Winch
graham.winch@plymouth.ac.uk
University of Plymouth
Plymouth Business School
Drake Circus

Plymouth PL4 8AA UK

Beryl Badger
bbadger@plymouth.ac.uk
University of Plymouth
Plymouth Business School
Drake Circus

Plymouth PL4 8AA UK

Joan Chandler
jchandler@plymouth.ac.uk
University of Plymouth
Faculty of Social Science and
Business

Drake Circus

Plymouth PL4 8AA UK

Jenny Lovett
jenny.lovett@phnt.swest.nhs.uk
Plymouth Hospitals NHS Trust
Derriford Hospital

Plymouth PL6 8DH Devon UK

Rajat Dhawan
rdhawan@econ.usyd.edu.au
University of Sydney
2/68 Duke Street
Campsie NSW 2194
Australia

plans that will promote long term sustainable development at the local
level. The conceptual model for this research project explores the
primary mitigation policy alternatives and depicts the "false sense of
security" trap, with endogenous explanations, in a stock and flow
feedback structure.

Evaluating the Impacts of Time-Reduction
Legislation on Junior Doctor Training and
Service

If junior doctors are to work significantly fewer hours in the future,
how can they still receive full training and continue to provide
necessary levels of medical service to patients? Historically, excessive
hours have been a way of the life for junior doctors worldwide, but
New Deal regulations, a revised junior doctor contract, and the EU
Working Time Directive are changing this. A project at Derriford
Hospital in Plymouth is researching the nature of ‘quality and
effective training’, and constructing SD models to yield insights and
eventually support operational decision-making. This has already
yielded significant insights for those at Derriford wrestling with this
seemingly impossible task, including, the circularity between junior
doctor training, consultants’ service and their training-supervision
role, and the quality of training provided, and the likely importance of
recruiting outside the progression process in addressing service
imbalances. It also highlights some of the special challenges in
projects where there are many stakeholders, political agendas, and a
continuously changing environment.

Tim Nokes
tim.nokes@phnt.swest.nhs.uk
Plymouth Hospitals NHS Trust
Derriford Hospital

Plymouth PL6 8DH Devon UK

Usefulness of Probabilistic System Dynamics in
Dynamic Decision Making

Most dynamic decision making tasks include assumptions which have
a huge uncertainty attached to them. Organizations are inherently
complex. The combination of uncertainty and complexity results often
in a sub-optimal decision. This paper emphasises on the usage of
probabilistic system dynamics (SD). The focus of probabilistic SD is
to represent the behaviour of uncertain variables in a realistic manner.
The information generated by probabilistic SD could produce
“complete” information thereby improving the mental models of
decision makers. Many SD models use deterministic values of
variables. However, “determinism” is untrue for real business settings.
In order to test the effectiveness of probabilistic SD on managerial
decision making, this study aims at conducting a series of rigorous
and controlled experiments. Specifically it tests the usefulness of (1)
system dynamics itself, (2) model validation techniques and (3)

64 23 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Vedat G. Diker
diker@glue.umd.edu

University of Maryland
College of Information Studies
4105 Hornbake Building
College Park MD 20742

USA

Robert B. Allen
bob.allen@cis.drexel.edu

Drexel University

College of Information Sci & Tech
3141 Chestnut Street

Philadelphia PA 19104-2875

USA

G6khan Dogan
gdogan@mit.edu

MIT

30 Wadsworth Street
Building E53 Room 364
Cambridge MA 02139
USA

John Sterman
jsterman@mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

Richard G. Dudley
rgd6@cornell.edu

c/o PMB 239

14845 SW Murray Scholls Dr Ste
110

Beaverton OR 97007-9237

USA

probabilistic system dynamics on decision-making. Furthermore,
these experiments are conducted in two settings — (1) using a simple
model and (2) using a complex model. It is hoped that probabilistic
SD would be instrumental in producing relevant information that
would help in improving managers’ mental models, especially in
complex scenarios. This in turn will result in better decisions under
uncertainty in complex business environments.

It’s About Time: The Why and How of Using
XML for Developing an Interchange Standard
for System Dynamics Models

This paper discusses the benefits of having an interchange standard
for system dynamics models, why XML is a good candidate on which
to build such as standard, and how the development process may take
place through community-wide participation. The paper also presents
XMILE, a prototype model interchange standard, as a proof of the
concept.

When Less Leads to More: Phantom Ordering
in the Beer Game?

We analyze experimental data from the Beer Game in which the
customer orders are constant (4 cases/week) and all the subjects are
informed about this fact before the game starts. Even though the
experimental settings disfavor oscillation and amplification, we still
observe them. To analyze the decisions made by the subjects, we first
estimate the decision rule used by Sterman (1989). This analysis
suggests that typically subjects do not understand the time delays and
the stock and flow structure of the Beer Game. Next, we relax some
assumptions of this decision rule and use more sophisticated
alternatives. These alternative decision rules do not yield overall
improvement in terms of fit to the real data. However, for some
subjects, these decision rules lead to significant improvement. Our
analysis reveals strong evidence that these subjects were caught up in
a reinforcing phantom ordering loop even though the experimental
conditions strongly disfavor such behavior.

A Generic Look at Payments for
Environmental Services: Plan or Scam?

Sustainable use of a natural resource ensures that the ecosystem
associated with that use will also provide long term environmental
services to society. Such services might include the provision of clean
water, removal of excess CO2 from the atmosphere, flood protection,
pleasant vistas, or enhanced biodiversity. These benefits are becoming
less abundant as inappropriate resource uses hasten environmental
degradation. In theory, if beneficiaries pay for the environmental
services received, and these payments are given to the resource

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 65
Jim Duggan
jim.duggan@nuigalway.ie
National University of Ireland
Galway

Department of Information
Technology

University Road

Galway Ireland

Josko Dvornik
josko@pfst.hr
University of Split
Gospinica 10

21000 Split Croatia

Ante M. Munitic
amunitic@pfst.hr
University of Split
Maritime Faculty
Zrinjsko-Frankopanska 38
21000 Split Croatia

Frane Mitrovic

users/owners to reward, or encourage, sustainable resource use, then
such sustainable use will be assured. Schemes to implement such
arrangements might be able to support conservation programs, and
also supplement income of poor farmers and forest dwellers. Such
payments are also seen as a means of encouraging better management
of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere, by paying for forest practices
which can store CO2. How do such systems actually work? Can
payments for environmental services encourage better resource
management? Might they also create disincentives for management
based on ethics, altruism, and stewardship? A generic system
dynamics model was used to examine these questions.

Using Multiple Objective Optimisation to
Generate Policy Insights for System Dynamics
Models

Multiple objective optimisation (MOO) is an optimisation approach
that has been widely used to solve optimisation problems with more
than one objective function. The benefit of this approach is that it
generates a set of non-dominated solutions which a policy maker can
explore and evaluate before making a final optimal selection. This
paper demonstrates that MOO can be used to assist policy makers
explore a richer set of alternatives when deciding on a range of values
for key parameters in their system dynamics model. In order to
demonstrate the approach, a well-known case study — The Domestic
Manufacturing Company ~ is used, and a stock and flow model and a
multiple objective optimiser are designed and coded. The results show
that valid solutions are generated, and that each of these solutions can
be examined independently — and hence give greater insight into the
problem at hand - before a decision is made as to the most appropriate
solution.

SD Simulation Modelling of Organisational
Business System of Management of Material &
Informational Flows in Productive Company

System Dynamics simulation models of organizational business
system of management of material (raw-materials, orders, money,
labor, personnel, population, capital equipment: tools, units and
factories e.t.c.) and informational flows in productive company will be
presented in this paper. Organizational business-production system is
simulated by effective scientific discipline System Dynamic and
realized by Dynamo (PD4) and PowerSim program packages, also.
Due to complexity and extensiveness of business management of
organizational business process or production-distribution system
global simulation models of companies are presented on the modular
way, i.e. with seven relevant sub systems: 1. Production-inventory sub
system; 2. Credits sub system; 3. Debits sub system; 4. Sub system of
productive capacities; 5. Sub system of Cash-Flow; 6. Gross income-
net income sub system; 7. Sub system of demand for organization
products, which are common structural characteristic in every
productive business organization. These sub system are modelled

66 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Isaac Dyner
idyner@unalmed.edu.co

Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Institute of Systems and

Decision Sci

Carrera 80 #65-223 Bloque M8
AA 1027 Medellin Colombia

William Edgar

edgar_william@bah.com
Booz Allen Hamilton
8283 Greensboro Drive
Allen 881

McLean VA 22102
USA

C. Lance Durham
durham _lance@bah.com
Booz Allen Hamilton
8283 Greensboro Dr
Allen #887

McLean VA 22102
USA

Aparna Higgins
higgins_aparna@bah.com
Booz Allen Hamilton
6010 Executive Blvd
Rockville MD 20850
USA

according to its specific quality. The paper is conceived as follows:
sub systems of business production organization, entire model of
productive organization system and its simulation, conclusion and
used references.

Energy Contribution to Sustainable Rural
Livelihoods in Developing Countries: A System
Dynamics Approach

Access to energy, particularly through clean and modern technology,
can make substantial contributions to promote rural development in
the poor areas of developing countries. However, the relationship
between energy, poverty alleviation and sustainable development is
still unclear. Additionally, while improving access to energy is
required for development, the way that this has been supplied has not
always warranted a sustained livelihood in rural areas. With the
purpose of gaining a better understanding of the relation between
energy and development, the current research “Renewable Energy for
Sustainable Livelihoods-RESURL”, aims to assess and measure the
factors that contribute or hinder the development of efficient, viable
and appropriate access to energy provision in remote rural areas by
using a multidisciplinary and participative perspective. A System
Dynamics model is constructed to evaluate the contribution of energy
to rural livelihoods. SD modeling facilitates understanding feedback
and control processes, as well as delays in decision making.
Simulations show how isolated communities in conditions of poverty
could attain a satisfactory level of human, social, physical and
financial development by making sustainable use of their natural
resources through energy technologies. The study draws on the
sustainable livelihoods approach as a framework for assessing
community assets and capacities.

2

The AIDS Epidemic: Integrating System
Dynamics and Gaming for Strategic
Simulation

The rapid spread of HIV/AIDS is a global crisis — one that is
particularly devastating to the economies of nations where the disease
is most prevalent. Booz Allen Hamilton, in conjunction with the
Global Business Coalition on HIV/AIDS (GBC) and_ the
Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), developed an innovative
approach for The AIDS Epidemic in India: A Strategic Simulation.
Their approach captures the complex interdependencies that drive the
HIV/AIDS epidemic and its economic consequences. At the core of
this strategic simulation is an analytic framework that leverages
epidemiological and economic System Dynamics modeling,
partnerships with leading academic centers, and simulation-driven
gaming.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 67
Marie Elf

marie.elf@ltdalarna.se

Center for Clinical Research Dalarna
Nissersviig 3

791 82 Falun

Sweden

Maria Poutilova
IT University

R. Evan Ellis

ellis_evan@bah.com

Booz Allen Hamilton Inc
742 Allen Building

8283 Greensboro Drive
McLean VA 22102 USA

Philip C. Emmi

emmi@arch.utah.edu
University of Utah

College of Architecture and Planning
375 South 1530 East

Room 235 AAC

Salt Lake City UT 84112-0370

USA

Craig Forster
forster@arch.utah.edu

University of Utah

College of Architecture and Planning
135 South 1460

East Rm 719

Salt Lake City UT 84112-0111

USA

The Care Planning Process — A Case for
System Dynamics

Health care is a complex dynamic setting suitable for system
dynamics analyses. The method has the potential to be an important
quality improvement tool in the near future. However, it will be
necessary to develop the models beyond the pure production model
focus on the clinical care process from a patent perspective and in
doing so it is inevitable that variables such as health, communication
and care planning are involved. Consequently, useful and valid
models for modern health care must involve variables that are unfairly
designated as intangible. The present paper describes an exploratory
system dynamics model of the care planning process. It draws on a
range of studies and theories about the process. The paper discusses
how it could be possible to incorporate and validate variables
alongside the more traditional way.

Paramilitary Demobilization in Colombia —
Insights from a System-Dynamics Based
Seminar Game

This paper presents insights from an interactive seminar game using
system dynamics to help the U.S. Latin American policy community
explore issues associated with the process of paramilitary
demobilization in Colombia. The game used system dynamics to
represent the strategic interactions of the key actors in the Colombian
paramilitary peace process, including their pursuit of both competing
and complimentary goals. The process leveraged the gaming mode
and rapid causal tracing capabilities of the Vensim™ system
dynamics software to generate an interactive event in which players
generated a rich set of strategic interactions in a hands-on learning
environment. The success of the event suggests a promising new
approach for leveraging the power of systems thinking and system
dynamics software in policymaking and learning environments.

Insights into the Dynamics of a Carbon-Based
Metropolis

This paper offers insights into the dynamics of carbon emissions in
metropolitan regions. These emerge from a system dynamics model of
urban land-atmospheric interactions. The paper provides contextual
background, outlines modeling methodology, inventories insights and
documents policy implications. Section One considers climate change,
worldwide urbanization, urban CO2 emissions and urban land-
use/transportation dynamics. Section Two identifies the study area,
the modeling tool, its dynamic organizing principle, its structure and
the scenarios used to explore system behavior. Section Three
considers urban CO2 emissions and the mitigating effects of land-use
and transportation policies. It compares these to practicable
improvements in fossil fuel combustion efficiencies and finds that

68 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
James I. Mills
jimills@onewest.net
University of Utah

311 N Placer

Idaho Falls ID 83402 USA

Mary Ewers
mewers@unm.edu

University of New Mexico
MSC 05 3060

1 University of New Mexico
Albuquerque NM 87131
USA

David R. Exelby
dave.exelby@hvr-csl.co.uk

HVR Consulting Services Ltd
Selborne House Mill Lane
Alton Hampshire GU34 2QJ
UK

John Holt

john holt@hvr-esl.co.uk

HYR Consulting Services Ltd
Selborne House Mill Lane
Alton Hampshire GU34 2QJ)
UK

Sion Cave
sion.cave@hvr-csl.co.uk

HVR Consulting Services Ltd
Selborne House Mill Lane
Alton Hampshire GU34 2QJ)
UK

Laércio Ferracioli

laercio@npd.ufes.br

Federal University of Espirito Santo

ModeLab/Departamento de Fisica
Campus de Goiabeiras
29060-900 Vitoria ES Brazil

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA

modifying urban form compare favorably to improving combustion
efficiencies. Section Four asserts that, given today’s global-scale
inter-metropolitan economic competition, today’s urban challenge
will be largely met by cooperation at the metro-regional scale to tame
the dynamics of carbon-based metropoli.

Combining Hydrology and Economics in a
Systems Dynamics Approach: Modeling Water
Resources for the San Juan Basin

Water supply is a hydrologic phenomenon, whereas water demand is
largely driven by human wants and needs. The combination of these
two systems, hydrology and economics, is necessary for accurate
modeling of our water resources. Moreover, in times of drought or
water scarcity it is the human behavioral component that will
determine whether a region’s water supply can be sustained. The
stakeholders of the San Juan Basin are many and varied, from Indian
tribes, agriculture interests, and municipalities, to recreational
fisherman, power generators and conservationists. Stakeholders must
make policy decisions regarding shortage sharing in times of drought
to ensure their water supplies are sustainable. We develop a system
dynamics simulation model for the San Juan Basin watershed (located
in the states of New Mexico and Colorado). The model can be used to
quantify shortage-sharing amounts needed for sustainability of water
supplies. Hydrology drives the water supply while economics drives
the water demand.

Systems Modeling of Lancashire Drug
Intervention Programme (DIP)

In the UK, drug misuse gives rise to between £10 billion and £18
billion a year in social and economic costs, 99% of which are
accounted for by problematic drug users. There are strong links
between problematic drug use and crime. The Drug Interventions
Programme (DIP) is a critical part of the Government’s strategy for
tackling drugs. The implementation of the UK Drug Intervention
Programme poses a number of challenges. This includes providing a
through-life approach to drug user treatment management. This must
take place within a multi-agency system some of which have been
newly formed. This paper discus a study working with one such
coordinating body — Lancashire Drug Action Team (DAT) in its Drug
Intervention Programme (DIP) strategy. Initial work has focused on
Aftercare Services in the Burnley area. A systems modelling approach
using System Dynamics has been adopted.

System Dynamics and Science Education: A
Curricular Innovation Experience

Current technological advance has raised a wide debate over its
integration to the educational context. Under this perspective it
becomes necessary to delineate an investigation about its effective

69
Mara Mulinari
hombremulinari@yahoo.com.br
Federal University of Espirito Santo
Departamento de Fisica

Av. Fernando Ferrari s/n
29.060-900 Vitoria ES

Brazil

Mariana Rampinelli
mariana@modelab.ufes.br

Federal University of Espirito Santo
Departamento de Fisica

Campus de Goiabeiras

29.060-900 Vitoria ES

Brazil

Michael Fletcher
mefletcher@gmail.com

9007 Meadow Heights Road
Randallstown MD 21133
USA

Christian Flury

christian flury@flury-giuliani.ethz.ch
Flury & Giuliani GmbH
Sonneggstrasse 33

CH-8092 Zurich Switzerland

Gabriele Mack
gabriele.mack@fat.admin.ch
Swiss Federal Research Station
Agricultural Economics &
Engineering

8356 Ettenhausen

Switzerland

Birgit Kopainsky

birgit kopainsky@iaw.agrl.ethz.ch
Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology

Agricultural Economics SOL F10
Sonneggstrasse 33

CH-8092 Ziirich

Switzerland

usage in the classroom. This work reports on the experience of using
system dynamics as framework for infusing new technologies in the
Information, Science and Technology in Science Education subject,
taught to students of the Physics and Biological Sciences graduation
classes. The results disclosed differences in the two students groups,
both in the development of models and in the educational modules
structuring, proposing new directives to attend each group
specifically.

The Dynamics of Analytic Collaboration

Abstract: This paper examines the nature and effects of collaboration
using a System Dynamics Model. The goal of the model was to place
collaboration into a System Dynamics operational construct using
stocks and flows in order to examine its workings. Using simple
representations of two analysts attempting to learn from a dynamic
document set, questions regarding collaboration, skill, learning and
the effects of rapidity of change within the document set are
examined. Findings indicate a knowledge-based rationale for
collaboration during periods of increased operational tempo.
However, there also appear to be knowledge-based reasons not to
collaborate under certain conditions. The knowledge-based rationale
is mirrored by the behavior of real social systems.

A Composite Optimisation-Simulation Model
for the Analysis of the Dynamic Interactions in
the Swiss Milk and Meat Market

By 2011 Switzerland aims to liberalise the milk market which will
result in market changes in the basic conditions for agriculture. The
impacts of the liberalisation are investigated with a composite model
obtained by combining an optimisation model for the agricultural
sector and a dynamic simulation model for the milk and meat market.
The calculations with the composite model indicate that milk price
depends strongly on the phasing out of market support, while the
abolition of milk quotas in 2009 is less decisive. An introduction of a
dairy cow premium leads to a higher milk production, especially with
abolished milk quotas. In this case the European milk price level
represents the lower limit for the milk price in Switzerland. Compared
to the milk market, with falling quantities meat prices are likely to
exhibit a stable development.

70 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 ~ 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Hilary Flynn
hhflynn@wsu.edu

Washington State University
ESRP

PO Box 644430

Pullman WA 99164-4430 USA

Andrew Ford
forda@mail.wsu.edu

Washington State University
Environmental Science

PO Box 644430,

Pullman WA 99164-4430 USA

Jonah Fogel
jfogel@utk.edu
University of Tennessee
274 Ellington Hall
Knoxville TN 37996
USA

A System Dynamics Study of Carbon Cycling
and Electricity Generation from Energy Crops

The Climate Stewardship Act, a global warming mitigation policy
calling for a cap-and-trade program, was reintroduced in the United
States Senate this year. The Energy Information Administration
analyzed the implications of the bill and found that under such a
policy renewable energy will increase, with the strongest response
coming from biomass energy. Dedicated energy crops are one source
of biomass that is expected to contribute significantly to the future
biomass energy supply. This paper describes a system dynamics
model of the carbon impacts from a dedicated energy crop. The work
relies on another carbon accounting model, GORCAM, which uses
spreadsheet modeling to investigate various land management
regimes. We were able to reproduce the GORCAM results for a 20-
year harvest rotation; we then simulated several different harvesting
intervals to gain insight into the carbon impacts of these rotations. Our
results show that a shorter harvest rotation will remove more carbon
from the atmosphere if the biomass is used to replace a fossil-fuel
burning power plant compared with no-harvest or longer harvest
scenarios. These results agree with previous work that found long-
term benefits were greater for scenarios where trees were planted for
energy generation rather than specifically for carbon sequestration.

Learning to See a Brighter Future for Morgan
County, TN

There is a critical need to develop land planning processes that can
build the capacities of local communities to address stewardship and
sustainability at both the individual and collective/landscape scales.
Social learning has been advocated as a process by which to build the
capacity of local communities to address these issues. This paper
outlines a social learning process currently being conducted to
collectively develop a common mental model (or schema) of local
landscape change among private forest landowners of Morgan
County, Tennessee. By seeking a shared schema of landscape change
landowners will elucidate and engage hidden assumptions that guide
their land use decisions. This learning process is expected to increase
community capacity by giving landowners a common understanding
from which to make and/or support more sustainable land use
decisions. The effectiveness of the social learning process is evaluated
using individual cognitive mapping in a pre/post test quasi-
experimental research design.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 71
David N. Ford
davidford@tamu.edu

Texas A&M University
Department of Civil Engineering
College Station TX 77843-3136
USA

Tim Taylor

xftu@tamuedu

Texas A&M University
Department of Civil Engineering
College Station TX 77743-3136
USA

Scott T. Johnson
johnsost@bp.com

BP

501 WestLake Park Blvd
MC 21.128

Houston TX 77253

USA

Travis Read Franck
travler@mit.edu

MIT

130 B Oxford St

Cambridge MA 02140

USA

Why Good Projects Go Bad: Managing
Development Projects Near Tipping Points

Previous system dynamics work models the tipping of a series of
product development projects into fire-fighting mode in which rework
overwhelms progress. Similar dynamics also threaten the performance
of individual development projects. The current work extends
previous tipping point dynamics research to single projects and
demonstrates how a simple, common feed back structure can cause
complex tipping point dynamics, trap projects in deteriorating modes
of behavior, and cause projects to fail. Basic tipping point dynamics in
single projects are described, analyzed, and demonstrated with the
model. Researchers recommend dynamic resource allocation policies
to improve project performance threatened by tipping point dynamics.
This existing work and the potential robustness of adaptive policies
suggest that dynamic resource allocation policies can protect projects
tipping point-based failure. But this hypothesis has not been tested for
specific policies. We test several strategies for managing projects near
tipping points, including dynamic resource allocation. The
effectiveness of dynamic resource allocation as protection against
project failure are modeled and described. Implications for project
management practice and future research opportunities are discussed.

Quantifying the Cost Uncertainty of Climate
Stabilization Policies

Climate change researchers are often asked to evaluate potential
economic effects of climate stabilization policies. This paper
examines what impact modelers' assumptions have on a model's
results. Specifically, MIT's Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis
(EPPA) model is examined to understand how uncertainty in input
parameters affect economic predictions of long-term climate
stabilization policies. Eleven difference categories of parameters were
varied in a Monte Carlo simulation to understand their effect on two
different climate stabilization policies. The Monte Carlo simulation
results show that the structure of stabilization policy regulations has
regional welfare effects. Carbon permits allocated by a tax-based
emissions path favored energy importers with developed economies
(e.g., the US and the EU). Countries with energy-intensive economies
(e.g., China) will likely have negative welfare changes because of
strict carbon policy constraints. Oil exporters (e.g., the Middle East)
will also be negatively impacted because of terms of trade fluxes.
These insights have implications for stabilization policy design. The
uncertainty surrounding economic projections exposes some countries
to larger economic risks. Policies could be designed to share risks by
implementing different permit allocation methods. Direct payments
are another means to compensate countries disproportionately
disadvantaged by a stabilization policy.

72 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 ~ 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Douglas Franco
dfranco@cantv.net

CANTV

Res Pza Real Ap D32 Ave Autocine
La Boyera Caracas 1083

Venezuela

Meg Fryling
mfryling@uamail.albany.edu
University at Albany
MSC 100

1400 Washington Ave
Albany NY 12222 USA

Rosanna Garcia
rgarcia@neu.edu
Northeastern University
202 Hayden Hall
Boston MA 02115
USA

Anand Nair
nairana@auburn.edu

Auburn University

418 Lowder Business Building
Auburn AL 36849-5247

USA

Insurance Dynamics: Managing Information
Flows

Insurance Companies sell information to clients, written in contracts
called policies. Clients buy those contracts by paying a premium.
Those contracts are promises to pay for possible future casualties.
Thus, it is essential to manage information flows to improve profits
and stability. Loss Ratio LR, claims cost to premiums ratio, is a key
profitability factor, used for management and underwriting decisions
with the help of different actuarial models. However, the fragmented
visions provided by those actuarial models, mislead decisions and
deteriorate performance. This paper integrates basic insurance
statistics into a comprehensive SD model, to price insurance coverage.
The emphasis is stressed on modeling rather than on policy design, so
experience can be used elsewhere; however, tampering and major
deteriorating loops are analyzed. Policy design complement policy
underwriting.

ERP Implementation Dynamics

ERP projects are often undertaken by project managers in an effort to
solve a problem, increase efficiency, and/or provide a higher level of
customer service. Although ERP systems can provide all of these
benefits and more, they can also cause havoc in an organization if not
managed correctly. There are far too many horror stories about
organizations failed ERP initiatives. In fact, the success rate of ERP
implementations is only around 33% and approximately 90% of ERP
implementations are late or over budget. ERP implementation articles
consistently report that implementation failure or success is people-
related. It's often easier to blame the technology then to explore these
deeper issues but in the end they are the controlling factors. It is
important for managers to understand the complexities of the people-
related issues, relationships and office politics before embarking on a
new ERP project. This research is intended to provide insight
regarding ERP implementation dynamics through modeling; to build
and explore theories regarding what causes ERP success/failure and
ultimately aid project managers in avoiding common pitfalls.

Allocation of Resources in Exploration and
Exploitation of Technologies: Re-evaluation
Using an Adaptive Agent Application

Technologically oriented firms must allocate resources bet)
exploration (research) and exploitation (development) acti S
March (1991) proposes that the ecology of competition will directly
influence the degree of emphasis on exploration and exploitation
activities by organizations; the greater the competition, the greater the
need to emphasize exploration activities. Exploratory case studies and
real market data indicate that this is seldom true. This study examines
this issue by adopting a two-pronged approach. First, a game-theoretic
model is used to gain insights regarding the optimal strategies for

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 73
Zhou Ge
sudagezhou@sina.com
Nanjing Foreign Language School
30 East Beijing Road
Nanjing

China

Yonggen Yuan

Nanjing Normal University
High School

37 Chahaer Road

Nanjing

China

Nicholas C. Georgantzas
georgantzas@fordham.edu

Fordham University Business
Schools

113 W 60th Street Suite LL 617-D
New York NY 10023-7484

USA

Mila Getmansky
msherman@som.umass.edu

University of Massachusetts Amherst
121 Presidents Drive 308C

Amherst MA 01003

USA

firms. Second, the intuition from game theoretic analysis is enhanced
and validated using complex adaptive systems approach. An agent
based model is used to simulate the complex market place where
competitors R&D strategies directly affect the focal firm’s R&D
strategy outcomes. The authors find that organizational adaptation to
dynamic environments significantly impacts the firm’s performance
over time.

Systematic Dynamics Thinking in Innovative
Teaching

There are two parts.The first,Systematic dynamics and students
innovational activities.The second ,Systems dynamics selective
breeding physics theory study. Student's achievement indicated that,
with the system pondered instructs student's innovation, may sharpen
student's innovation ability, causes the student to experience the
innovation pleasure, raises students' innovation spirit.

Disruptive Innovation Diffusion

An exploratory system dynamics (SD) model presents disruptive
innovation diffusion as a replicable process that can spawn business
growth for d, Inc., a company that offers an over the air digital
subscription TV service. Building on diffusion processes in
epidemiology, marketing and sociology, the eight-sector SD model
shows customer switching in the high-and low-end and non-
consumption markets that disruptive innovators exploit. As extreme-
condition scenarios test its robustness, the model shows performance
results for the multiple market penetration and defense tactics that
disrupter and incumbent firms execute through time. In a relentless
hunt for superior performance and a sea of external-change triggers
and internal-change levers, d, Inc. takes on cable operators who
overlook low-end markets and devote their attention to and invest in
higher-end tiers, their service tailored to more demanding customers.
But low-end markets cannot absorb sustaining innovations that exceed
what non-consumers need or know how to exploit. The results show
that despite the high environmental turbulence, market risk and
uncertainty facing d, Inc., being in a market that blends its commercial
and technological competence with discontinuity and instability
transients suggests ample opportunity for sustainable disruptive
growth, even if markets contract.

Limits of Arbitrage: Understanding How
Hedge Funds Fail

Even if arbitrage opportunities are found in a statistical sense, they
might not be exploitable due to unexpected widening of spreads. This
paper models such a case in the framework of a hedge fund.
Specifically, Long Term Capital Management is presented as a case

74 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Elias Goncalves
eliasgoncalves@gmail.com

Federal University of Espirito Santo
Rua Presidente Lima 685

Centro Vila Velha ES 29100-330
Brazil

Laércio Ferracioli
laercio@npd.ufes.br

Federal University of Espirito Santo
ModeLab/Departamento de Fisica
Campus de Goiabeiras

29060-900 Vitoria ES

Brazil

Paulo Gongalves
paulog@miami.edu
University of Miami
KE 404

Coral Gables FL 33124
USA

John Sterman
jsterman@mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

Alan K. Graham

alan. graham@paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group Inc
One Memorial Drive
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

study. In particular, we calculate the likelihood of hedge fund failure
and survival given different statistical arbitrage opportunities and
hedge fund risk management decisions. Dynamic relationships
between a hedge fund, dealer, and market (investor) are modeled.

An Exploratory Study of the Use of System
Dynamics with High School Students

This paper presents results of the investigation on the use of
Quantitative Computer Modelling environment into the exploratory
learning of specific contents of Science. The results presented refer to
the study of the interaction and performance of high school students,
during the use of the quantitative computer modelling environment
based on the Iconic Metaphor STELLA for developing basic causal
framework activities, that is, causal framework without feedback loop,
causal framework with either positive and negative feedback loop, and
a fourth activity about cooling water. The data analysed with the use
of Systemic Network, suggested the students were able to develop the
proposed models, identifying all types of causal framework of the
problem-situations proposed, and of the cooling water phenomenon.

Overordering Games in Supply Chains

When demand exceeds supply, customers often hedge against
shortages by placing multiple orders with multiple suppliers. The
resulting demand bubbles creates instability leading to excess
capacity, excess inventory, low capacity utilization, and financial and
reputation losses for suppliers and customers. This research
contributes to the understanding of phantom demand caused by
shortages by developing a formal model of the relationship between a
single supplier and multiple retailers. The research combines
simulation and game theory to explore equilibrium strategies that arise
as a result of a dynamic game. When retailers must commit to a single
strategy in a static retailer game, our analyses suggest that a prisoner’s
dilemma arises if appropriate incentives are not in place, allowing
retailers to reach equilibrium with an aggressive ordering strategy
(inflating their orders and later canceling them) even though a
conservative ordering strategy (ordering just what they need) is
mutually more profitable. The conservative strategy dominates the
aggressive one when sufficient incentives are in place. In addition, we
investigate a number of strategies (e.g. tit-for-tat, severe punishment,
etc.) for retailers in an infinitely repeated game and we explore the
static and dynamic games for the supplier-retailer interactions.

Achieving Win-Win in a Regulatory Dispute:
Managing 3G Competition

Hutchison Telecom Hong Kong had a problem. The telecoms
Regulator, OFTA, wanted to take away some of its spectrum and use
it to add yet another competitor into this already highly-competed
market. Hutchison perceived that the proposed action would not only

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 75
Jeremy Godfrey
jeremy.godfrey@paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group

20F St George's Bldg

No 2 Ice House St

Hong Kong

Stefan Grésser
stefan.groesser@web.de
University of Bergen
Fantofivegen 14 PO Box 506
5075 Bergen

Norway

Stefan Grésser

stefan. groesser@web.de
University of Bergen
Fantofivegen 14 PO Box 506
5075 Bergen

Norway

be unfavourable for Hutchison, but also for the consumer. But this
view hadn’t been accepted by the Regulator, when expressed in the
form of traditional regulatory arguments. This case study describes
how Hutchison commissioned and used a System Dynamics simulator
of the Hong Kong wireless markets (2G and 3G, voice and data) to
rigorously and transparently quantify the situation. The simulator used
1) interviews with many experts and stakeholders, including the
regulator, 2) confidential company data, appropriately protected, 3)
judicious calibration against 2G history and 3G plans, 4) optimization
of 3G competitor’s pricing and investment strategies to “game out”
future market evolution, under different regulatory decisions.
Sensitivity testing showed that the remaining uncertainties did not
alter the fundamental results: The regulator’s proposed action would
not benefit the public. After due consideration, OFTA dropped its
plans and will not bring in more 3G carriers. Both Hutchison and
OFTA have done well for their respective stakeholders.

Does Experience or an Education in System
Dynamics Help People to Solve Simple,
Dynamic Problems? — A Laboratory
Experiment

The Methodology of System Dynamics claims to promote
understanding of complex systems. Accepting this claim, the question
“Does experience or an education in System Dynamics help people to
solve simple, dynamic problems?’ arises. It guides the conduction of
our experiment. The first hypothesis about no influence of additional
information for problem solving has to be accepted. The performances
of two different information treatment groups are not significantly
different. Our second hypothesis, that people with and without
experience in System Dynamics will have the same performance, has
to be rejected. A significant difference between the performances of
experienced people and people with no or little experience exists. A
possible reason for this circumstance is that an education in System
Dynamics doesn’t immediately, but over a longer time horizon,
enables people to comprehend dynamic systems. At last, the
experimental design will be discussed and several weaknesses will be
pointed out. Keywords: Experiment, Applicability of System
Dynamics, Hypothesis Testing, Dynamic Problem, Education,
Comprehension.

Modeling the Health Insurance System of
Germany: A System Dynamics Approach

The German Health Insurance System is balanced on the edge.
Decision makers seem not successful in developing and implementing
sustainable health policies, which ensure at least a balanced health
insurance fund. Highly dynamic factors influence the health insurance
fund situation and complicate the decision making. The System
Dynamics Methodology is used to examine first possible causes of the
enduring problem. In the formal simulation model, we include among
other variables the population dynamics, personal income,

76 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Andreas GréBler
agroe@is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany

Burak Giineralp
guneralp@uiuc.edu

Univ of Illinois at Urbana-
Champaign

1102 S$ Goodwin Avenue
W-515 Turner Hall
Urbana IL 61801 USA

contribution fraction and health expenses per capita as well as
behavioral states of the agents. Second, the model is used to conduct
simulation-based policy testing to find improved decision rules. The
policy ‘expenses reduction pressure’ forces the government to reduce
health insurance ex-penses per request. It can improve the health
insurance system situation best. The result will be a reduction of the
health insurance fund shortfall. Other policies worsen the problem sig-
nificantly due to increased oscillatory tendency in the health insurance
system. As result of the study, the different policies are discussed
separately. Keywords: Soft System Dynamics, German Health
Insurance, Sustainable Policy, Co-Payment Policy.

An Exploratory System Dynamics Model of
Strategic Manufacturing Capabilities

This paper investigates the dynamics of accumulation processes of
strategic capabilities in manufacturing, i.e. cost, quality, time
orientation and flexibility. The analysis is conducted with the help of
an exploratory system dynamics model that represents a hierarchy of
these accumulative capabilities. By applying a dynamic view,
concepts from the operations management literature are tested and
shortcomings are identified. In a further step, the exploratory model is
parameterized with empirical data from a large international survey of
manufacturing plants. Implications concern the distribution of
managerial attention on the different capabilities and its dynamic
consequences. The value of this paper lies in the insights gained by
the transformation of a verbal model in a quantified simulation model
and the learning resulting from simulation experiments

Towards Coherent Loop Dominance Analysis:
Progress in Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis

Formal model analysis tools are essential elements in understanding
how structure drives behavior. Conventional model analysis relies
heavily on a time-consuming experimental iterative process. Current
formal tools are not mature enough for application to most models.
This paper presents a loop dominance analysis approach based on
eigenvalue elasticity analysis (EEA). EEA, although a potentially
strong formal model analysis tool, has drawn criticisms over the years
for a number of reasons. The approach proposed in this study attempts
to bring proper solutions to the issues raised by those criticisms. To
this end, a ten-step procedure is proposed. Among the most prominent
features of the proposed procedure is the ability to track the influences
of feedback loops on a specific variable of interest. Others include the
ability to track the loop dominance dynamics over time and an attempt
to the codification of the proposed features of the EEA. The
application of the proposed approach is demonstrated using a simple
economic long wave model and two other models, all chosen from
earlier methodological studies on formal loop dominance analysis.
The results of these applications also facilitate the comparison of the
proposed approach to other formal model analysis tools.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA_77
Hérdur V. Haraldsson
hordur.haraldsson@chemeng.lth.se

Lund University

Department of Chemical Engineering
PO Box 124

22100 Lund Sweden

Rannveig Olafsdéttir

Lund University

Department of Physical Geography
Solvegatan13

SE 223 52 Lund Sweden

Hérdur V. Haraldsson

hordur.haraldsson@chemeng.lth.se
Lund University

Department of Chemical Engineering
PO Box 124

22100 Lund Sweden

Harald Sverdrup
harald.sverdrup@chemeng lth.se
Lund University

Dept of Chemical Engineering Box
124

221 00 Lund Sweden

A Modelling Approach for Evaluating the Pre-
Industrial Natural Carrying Capacity of the
Human Population in Iceland

A simple approach was used to evaluate the potential human
population that the pre-industrial Icelandic environment could sustain.
A model was constructed that simulated the population size according
to potential biological production available for livestock. Biological
production was determined by the extent of the total poten-tial
vegetation cover based on the Degree-day concept. Fluctuations in the
mean an-nual temperature cause changes in the potential vegetation
cover and as a conse-quence change the biological production
sustaining livestock and ultimately human population. The
simulation's results indicate that the potential population that the
environment could sustain during the pre-industrial period fluctuated
around 40-80 thousand. The results further indicate that the severe
land degradation experienced after the settlement period had a
marginal impact on the population size. The pre-historical population
did however overshoot the natural sustainability on few occa-sions.

Making Art into a Science: Adaptive Learning
Behaviour and Managing Group Modelling
Innovation Processes

The use of System Dynamic software tools are becoming a popular
way of investigating complex problems. However, along with the use
of these tools exists the risk of relying too heavily on the numerical
part of the analysis and neglecting the preparation phase for analysis.
Any modelling procedure in System Dynamic modelling goes through
a conceptual phase that uses the ‘Learning Loop’ approach. This
phase is most often done unintentionally. Using the Learning Loop
approach consciously facilitates the ‘group modelling’ process to
acquire four successive phases, i.e. Definition, Clarification,
Confirmation and Implementation. This enables a clear structure in
the process, from acquiring the task to documenting the results. Only
by intentionally using the Learning Loop approach in a managed
manner, can the full potential of the process be exploited. Qualitative
analysis does not replace simulations with a computer model but
simulations should serve as a continuation to reconfirm or refute
qualitative hypothesis and a simulation should only occur when the
mental model has been tested. Systems Analysis, including its
thinking, analysis and dynamics, is not a method, but rather an
adaptive learning behaviour. It is a behaviour that finds the optimally
adapted method, applying at some times SD computer tools.

78 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Hérdur V. Haraldsson
hordur:haralds
Lund University

Department of Chemical Engineering
PO Box 124

22100 Lund Sweden

@chemeng.lth.se

Harald Sverdrup
harald.sverdrup@chemeng.lth.se
Lund University

Dept of Chemical Engineering Box
124

221 00 Lund Sweden

Ho6rdur V. Haraldsson

hordur. haraldsson@chemeng.lth.se
Lund University

Department of Chemical Engineering
PO Box 124

22100 Lund Sweden

Harald Sverdrup
harald.sverdrup@chemeng.lth.se
Lund University

Dept of Chemical Engineering Box
124

221 00 Lund Sweden

Salim Belyazid
salim.belyazid@chemeng.lth.se
Lund University

Dept of Chemical Engineering
Chemical Technology Box 124
221 00 Lund Sweden

On Aspects of System Analysis and Dynamics
Workflow

The workflow in System Dynamics may be seem to follow certain
general flow patterns within the adaptive-iterative approach required.
We constructed some diagrams to gain transparency and
understanding of different tasks in the model-ling process. The
modelling workflow involve systems analysis, group modelling and
system dynamics. The systems analysis as executed during group
modelling consists of three model building stages and one
implementation task. The stages involves Definition, Clarification,
Confirmation and Implementation. After defin-ing the issues and
questions, the process evolves the Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)
iteratively with the Stock and Flow Diagram (SFD), which form the
construction drawings for the programming of the model incorporated
as a System Dynamic Tool Diagram (SDTD). The third stage is the
testing of the computerized model version created by the System
Dynamic tool (SD-tool) and the fourth task is the implementation of
the outputs into results and policies. This may be considered an
iterative process in all the stages. Innovation is the emergent output
from a proc-ess operating according to the learning loop: Finally the
roadmap given to our students for going from question to model
diagram is shown.

The Tyranny of Small Steps I: Discovery of an
Archetypical Behaviour

A new archetype, The Tyranny of Small Steps (TYST) has been
observed. Explained through a system dynamics perspective, the
archetypical behaviour TYST is an unwanted change to a system
through a series of small activities that may be independent from one
another. These activities are small enough not to be detected by the
‘surveillance’ within the system, but significant enough to encroach
upon the “tolerance” zone of the system and compromise the integrity
of the system. TYST is an unintentional process that is experienced
within the system and made possible by the lack of transparency
between an overarching level and a local level where the
encroachment is taking place. The Orby case study illustrates a real
life manifestation of the TYST archetype in planning. The TYST
illustrates the necessity for total transparency in any systems in order
to avoid unintended consequence of the archetype. The TYST process
may be regarded as a part of wide range of complex systems but
depending on the conditions, it can remain dormant, and only become
active when the conditions for lack of transparency are fulfilled.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 79
Chi-Zho He

‘@chang.cv.nctu.edu.tw

National Chiao Tung University

Hsinchu
Taiwan ROC

John F. Heinbokel
jheinbokel@ciesd.org

CIESD LLP

75 Green Mountain Drive
South Burlington VT 05403
USA

P. Jeffrey Potash
jpotash@ciesd.org

CIESD LLP

75 Green Mountain Drive
South Burlington VT 05403
USA

The Application of System Dynamics Modeling
to Study Impact of Water Resources Planning
and Management in Taiwan

The demand for water in Southern Taiwan has increased significantly
in recent years because of industrial growth and increasing living
standards. However, due to the financial reasons, only a limited scale
of existing surface water facilities can be expanded in a river basin.
Therefore, it often requires a suitable strategy to consider the fixed
costs and operating costs for expansion. On the other hands, the
conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater can enhance the
reliability of water supplies by providing independent sources so that
research on conjunctive use is important, especially with reference to
fixed and operating costs. In light of above reason, resolving the
tension between water deficit and economic profit, while ensuring the
sustainable development of water resources is very urgent for
government authorities. Accordingly, this investigation proposes a
process of integrating the system dynamics and impact analysis for
evaluating water strategy systematically and quantitatively, with
reference to water shortage and economic profit as they pertain to the
planning and management of regional water resources.

Endogenous Human Behaviors in a Pneumonic
Plague Simulation: Psychological and
Behavioral Theories as Small “Generic”
Models

This report builds on a previous epidemiological model of a
pneumonic plague outbreak that incorporated three behavioral
responses as exogenous drivers and evaluated their importance in
allowing us to replicate the actual outbreak (Heinbokel& Potash,
ISDC-2003). The current paper describes our subsequent efforts to
incorporate those critical and controlling behavioral dimensions into
this model as critical feedback loops. We conceptually deconstructed
the event into four segments: becoming aware of the outbreak,
deciding to act in response, choosing a specific response, and
returning to normal behavior. We utilized current psychological
theories, such as the “Psychometric Paradigm” and “Brunswik’s Lens
Model,” to build small, conceptually clear, transferable, and
combinable behavioral submodels to simulate the first three segments
involving information and social networks, social trust, and risk
perceptions. We believe these modeling efforts comprise first steps in
a critical process of translating current, frequently static, risk theories
to dynamically responsive vehicles that can be flexibly and
quantitatively applied to reliably aid in understanding and influencing
responses to such public health threats, other extreme events, and
other dynamic risk scenarios in general.

80 23 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Gary B. Hirsch
gbhirsch@comcast.net

Creator of Learning Environments
7 Highgate Road

Wayland MA 01778 USA

Jack B. Homer
jhomer@comcast.net
Homer Consulting

3618 Avalon Court
Voorhees NJ 08043 USA

Geoff McDonnell
gmedonne@bigpond net.au
University of New South Wales
382 Bronte Road

Bronte NSW 2024 Australia

Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ede.gov

Centers for Disease Control
360 Brooks Avenue NE
Atlanta GA 30307 USA

Yufeng Ho
hyfarch@ms32.hinet.net
PO Box 30-117
Taichung

Taiwan

ShuSone Wang
edge0711@seed.net.tw

Chungkuo Institute of Technology
PO Box 25-128

Taichung

Taiwan

Siang Hong
sth343@psu.edu

Pennsylvania State University
266 Recreation Building

Dept of Kinesiology

University Park PA 16802 USA

Karl M. Newell

kmn I@psuedu

Pennsylvania State University
Coll of Health and Human
Development

201 Henderson

University Park PA 16802 USA

Achieving Health Care Reform in the United
States: Toward a Whole-System
Understanding

The U.S. health care system faces serious problems of high cost,
limited access, unequal treatment, and inadequate health protection.
Though these problems have persisted for decades and various
reforms have been attempted, the overall impact of reform efforts has
been only modest. This paper examines potential types of reform and
the history of reform efforts. Causal-loop diagrams are presented
which together comprise a theory to explain what created the set of
problems that exist and why efforts at reform have largely failed.
Different philosophical bases for reform and the need for an eclectic
approach are discussed, and a sequential “bootstrapping” approach to
comprehensive reform is outlined. The diagrams and discussion of
this paper are intended as a starting point for further collaborative
work on health care reform among system dynamics practitioners and
health policy experts, leading to simulation modeling and further
insights.

System Dynamics Model for the Sustainable
Development of Science City

Hsinchu Science Park is an example of hi-technology industry
development in Taiwan. Its rapid growth has brought tremendous
economic benefits, though not without social and environmental
impacts, resulting in conflict between economic growth and
sustainable development of the science city. This study establishes a
system dynamic model using STELLA programming language to
simulate different development scenarios of Hsinchu Science City.
Our analysis reveals that the development of the science city should
comply with the objectives of (1) maximizing the profits from
industries in the science park, (2) minimizing the damages incurred by
the science park on its mother city, (3) decrease in consumption of
natural resources, (4) reduction in environmental pollution, and (5)
attention to relevant social problems.

Reorganizing Motor Behavior through
Practice

Skilled human movement is apparently easily produced and highly
coordinated despite the high number of degrees of freedom controlled
during its execution. Here, we examine the learning of a whole body
movement over practice from three levels of analysis: 1) elemental, 2)
subsystem, and 3) macroscopic order parameter, with respect to the
role of constraints in motor skill acquisition. With practice, the body
segments were re-organized to achieve the 3 sub-tasks, namely: 1) a
medio-lateral forcing torque, 2) a vertical downward force and 3) an
anterior-posterior equilibrating torque. The output complexities of the
two subsystems, the forcing (medio-lateral) and equilibrating

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 81
Peter S. Hovmand
phovmand@wustl.edu

Washington University in St Louis
GWB School of Social Work

One Brookings Drive Campus Box
1196

Saint Louis MO 63130

USA

Ron Pitner

rpitner@wustl.edu

Washington University in St Louis
GWB School of Social Work

One Brookings Drive Campus Box
1196

St Louis MO 63130

USA

Peter S. Hovmand
phovmand@wustl.edu

Washington University in St Louis
GWB School of Social Work

One Brookings Drive Campus
Box 1196

Saint Louis MO 63130 USA

Melissa Jonson-Reid
jonsonrd@wustl.edu

Washington University in St Louis
GWB School of Social Work

One Brookings Drive Campus
Box 1196

St Louis MO 63130 USA

Brett Drake

brettd@wustl.edu

Washington University in St Louis
GWB School of Social Work

One Brookings Drive Campus
Box 1196

St Louis MO 63130 USA

Chao-Li Hsu
chaoli@mail.ntcte.edu.tw

National Taichung Teachers College
140 Ming-Shen Rd

Taichung 403

Taiwan

(anterior-posterior) motions of the center of mass changed in a
compensatory manner, increasing or maintaining the stability of the
overt behavior. This pattern of findings supports the ideas of
dynamical approaches to motor learning and holds interesting
parallels to tenets of the Theory of Constraints (Goldratt, 1990) for
system (re)organization.

Combining System Dynamics, Social
Networks, and Geographic Information
Systems

System dynamics has always held the potential to synthesize and
advance theories in social science. Increasingly, social scientists and
policy makers are recognizing the importance of complexity and
turning to methods like system dynamics, geographic information
systems, social network analysis, and agent based modeling. All of
these approaches draw on some underlying modeling mathematical
framework. This research reports on a method for integrating system
dynamics with social network analysis and geographic information
systems. The method is then applied to the specific problem of
improving city residents’ perceptions of crime and safety in a model
based on existing social theory.

Flows in the Child Welfare Systems: A
Computation Theory Approach to Developing
Numerical Reference Modes

Mental health service systems are inherently complex, both in their
detail and dynamics. System dynamics offers great potential to help
policy makers, administrators, and researchers make better decisions
about service system changes. However, efforts have been constrained
by not being able to construct numerical reference modes without
making strong assumptions about the structure of the case flows. This
paper presents a novel approach to generating numerical reference
modes from administrative databases that is based on computation
theory. The method is validated with simulated datasets, and its
feasibility and substantive significance demonstrated in an analysis of
a merged child welfare database containing 10,250 children and
adolescents.

Evaluating Effects of a Systems Thinking
Model on Curriculum and Instruction
Planning in Taiwan

Given that systems thinking is a useful methodology in organization
learning, the main purpose of this study was to identify and evaluate
how and in what ways we could use systems thinking on

82 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Yuan-Zu Chen
yichen@mitux.teavs.te.edu.tw
283 Taichung Rd
Taichung

Taiwan

Hsiao-Shen Wang
hswang@isst.edu.tw
140 Ming-Shen Rd
Taichung

Taiwan

Margarita Hurtado
Hernandez

mhurtado@mx.up.mx
Universidad Panamericana
Augusto Rodin 498

03920 México DF

México

Héctor Debernardo
hdebernardo@alumni.unay.es
Universidad Panamericana
Augusto Rodin 498

03920 México DF

México

Lihlian Hwang
lihlian@mcu.edu.tw

Ming Chuan University

12F No 82 Chang Kang Yi

Hu Hsin Tsun

Gweishan Taoyuan 333 Taiwan

curriculum/instruction planning in schools. In this study, we used
ethnographic methods of observation and in-depth interviewing to
gather information. The study took place in six public elementary
schools. The evaluation was focused on the following questions: (a)
What happened when the model were used?, (b) What did participants
think about using the model in planning and instruction? and (d) In
what ways did the use of the model influenced professional
development? Evaluation data was collected from three primary
sources: (a) principals’ and administrators’ interview (b) teachers’
curriculum, lesson plans, interview, and responses to an attitude
survey; and (c) researchers’ observational notes. Conclusions made
based on the results of this study. First, systems thinking can increase
the quality of administrator-teacher and teacher-teacher interaction,
teachers’ curriculum/instruction planning, continuous assessment of
curriculum/instruction, and immediate and formative feedback.
Secondly, it can also decrease overall time required on task of
curriculum/instruction designing in the long run. Consequently, it
promises curriculum/instruction design with more accountable
quality.

A Paradigm Shift in Solid Waste Collection
Systems Design and Operation

A new solid waste collection model, called MST, has been developed.
It is a result of combining System Thinking and Aggregation Theory
and it takes into account real world constraints such as collection
frequency, labor shifts and both preventive and _ corrective
maintenance. MST is a paradigm shift in solid waste collection
systems design and operation. It makes possible a more efficient
utilization of resources (vehicles and labor) and it is robust against
variability sources. MST is the result of having challenged and
invalidated a deeply rooted assumption in all models developed up to
date. Simulation and Design Of Experiments were used to compare
MST against existing models. Experimental results show significant
reduction in the number of trips (Up to 33%), crews (Up to 49%) and
vehicles (Up to 40%), which means dramatic operation cost and
investment improvements.

Exploring the Strategies of Hospitals Facing a
Global Budget and Evaluating its Effects in
Taiwan

The National Health Insurance (NHI) program has implemented in
Taiwan since March 1995. The initial balance of revenues and
expenditures was stable, but there has been a deficit since 1998. As
the deficit problem was mostly caused by the payment system of fee-
for-service, the Bureau of NHI (BNHI) implemented global budget
(GB) payment system. Under GB, the benefit payments were under
control as planned. Since the benefit payments from BNHI are the
most part of revenues of hospitals, some hospitals have financial
imbalance. This study uses system dynamics to explore the strategies
of hospitals facing GB and evaluate its effects on hospitals and
patients. This research is still ongoing and will reach two

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 83
Lihlian Hwang
lihlian@mcu.edu.tw

Ming Chuan University

12F No 82 Chang Kang Yi

Hu Hsin Tsun

Gweishan Taoyuan 333 Taiwan

Jacob J. Jacobson
jacob.jacobson@inl.gov

Idaho National Laboratory

2525 N Fremont Avenue

Idaho Falls ID 83415-3710 USA

Steven J. Piet

pietsj@inel gov

Idaho National Eng and Env
Laboratory

PO Box 1625

Idaho Falls ID 83415-3605 USA

A.M. Yacout
yacout@anl.gov

‘Argonne National Laboratory
9700 S. Case Avenue
Argonne IL 60439 USA

G. E. Matthern
gretchen.matthern@inl.gov
Idaho National Laboratory
2525 N Fremont Ave
Idaho Falls ID 83415 USA.

Anton Moisseytsev
Texas A&M University

Jacob J. Jacobson
jacob.jacobson@inl.gov
Idaho National Laboratory
2525 N Fremont Avenue
Idaho Falls ID 83415-3710
USA

achievements. First, submitting the stock-flow diagrams can provide
the managers of hospitals to have a further understanding on their
strategies. Second, building the model can simulate and evaluate the
effects of multiple strategies on hospitals and patients.

Using Simulation to Evaluate Policies for the
Financial Imbalance of the National Health
Insurance in Taiwan

This study applies system dynamics to explore the long-term
influences of multiple policies on handling the financial imbalance of
the National Health Insurance (NHI). In order to improve the financial
imbalance of the NHI, three policies and three scenarios are proposed.
Each policy is evaluated for each scenario. According to the
simulation results, the policy of a 20% increase in premium rate, plus
a 2% decrease each year in annual rate of change of benefit payments
per beneficiary can improve the financial imbalance. However, the
benefit payments will be greater than premium revenues from 2008.
So, the financial imbalance of the NHI will present again.

Modeling the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

The Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative is developing a system dynamics
model as part of their broad systems analysis of future nuclear energy
in the United States. The model will be used to analyze and compare
various proposed technology deployment scenarios. The model will
also give a better understanding of the linkages between the various
components of the nuclear fuel cycle that includes uranium resources,
reactor number and mix, nuclear fuel type and waste management.
Each of these components is tightly connected to the nuclear fuel
cycle but usually analyzed in isolation of the other parts. This model
will attempt to bridge these components into a single model for
analysis. This work is part of a multi-national laboratory effort
between Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory
and United States Department of Energy. This paper summarizes the
basics of the system dynamics model and looks at some results from
the model.

Vision: A Business Planning Simulator

“Past performance may not be a not true indicator of future
performance.” Everyone has seen this disclaimer at one time or
another. Although this may certainly be true, past performance should
certainly be considered when planning for the future. Executives are
always seeking ways to make decisions that will help their company
to perform better. This paper examines a model that was developed to

84 23 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Martin E. Maren
maren@alum.mit.edu
1861 N Claudia Ave
Simi Valley CA 93065
USA

Anil B. Jambekar
abjambek@mtu.edu

Michigan Technological University
School of Business and Economics
1400 Townsend Drive

Houghton MI 49931 USA

Karen Jarzynka
karenjarz@yahoo.com
University at Albany
201 Park Ave Apt 40
Albany NY 12202
USA

Eva Jensen

eva jensen@fhs.mil.se

Swedish National Defence College
Dept of War Science

PO Box 27805

SE-115 93 Stockholm

Sweden

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA

take a company’s financial records and transform them into easy to
understand trends and long-term predictors. In addition, it allows the
user to adjust system parameters to see the long-term effects to
performance.

A Season of Resolutions, Continuous
Improvement and Systems Thinking

As New Year rolls in, many of us take on challenge of personal
change. Many set goals to lose weight; do more exercises; watch less
television; do more studying; do less partying; or to shed a habit such
as smoking. For several years in our Quality Management course
students were asked to work on a term-long personal continuous
improvement projects. The students were briefly introduced to basic
concepts of causal loop diagrams and were encouraged to use them to
clarify their theories regarding their own progress or lack of it. The
basic premise is that the result students obtain and the dynamics they
experience are built into the structure of their worldview and they
learn if they can communicate and influence their worldview. This
paper uses systems thinking lens to discuss the improvement
framework and the experience reported by students. Majority of
students did not make the progress toward their goals as much as they
would have preferred. The student generated diagrams to explain their
theories were either too simple or overly complicated, awkward and
partially flawed. However, it can be claimed that the process of using
the tool to clarify their thinking itself was worthwhile. After
reviewing their narratives and the diagrams, several archetypes were
consistently noted.

U.S. Low Income Housing Policy — A Dynamic
System Evaluation

Housing for the poor remains a major policy problem in U.S. cities.
Jay Forrester’s 1969 Urban Model predicted that increasing the
availability of low income housing exacerbates the city deterioration.
Poverty and homelessness are on the rise in this country. Families,
often single parents with children, and the elderly are two of the
largest groups affected. Subsidized housing is one way to fight
homelessness. This year’s budget proposal has President Bush
slashing funding to the department of Housing and Urban
Development, including many programs that help supply housing to
the poor. I plan to investigate various low income housing policies to
determine how and why they would or would not work.

Balancing Bathtubs in Math Class

What aspects of basic system dynamics are covered by the traditional
school math curriculum? The Booth Sweeney and Sterman (2000)
bathtub tasks and the Jensen and Brehmer (2003) rabbits-and-foxes
task were dissected into aspects. Questionnaires with tasks tapping
into the identified aspects were administered to first-semester

85
Min Jiang
jljiangmin@hotmail.com
Nanjing Jinling High School
No 169 Zhongshan Road
Nanjing Jiangsu 210005
China
Yibai Chen
b@nje.en

\jing AV Educational Center
No 5 Cibeishe

Nanjing 210029
China

Neng Jiang
nj138@mdx.ac.uk
Middlesex University
34A Finchley Lane
Hendon

London NW4 IDL UK

university students with a math-intensive high school background.
Performance were as expected and conformed to the results of
previous studies with these tasks. These results encourage further
effort to devise additional tasks covering more basic aspects
identified, and refining the existing tasks. Equipped with a well-
design battery of tasks, it would in all likelihood be informative to test
it with different participant groups, such as undergraduate, as well as
graduate, students in math, engineering, and system dynamics.

ENJOY LEARNING - Deepened Application
of Systems Thinking in High School
Chemistry Teaching Practice

This paper, through two separate teaching fragments in the delivery of
chemistry education, is to demonstrate the use of system dynamics
and the subsequent research process by using software “STELLA”,
which clearly reflects the system thinking. As to the decomposing
reaction of H202, students encountered some unexpected reaction
phenomenon. With the help of the “STELLA”, they conducted in-
depth research on the causes that lead to such phenomenon mentioned
above. The final modeling process clarifies the reaction for the
students. What’s more important, it also helps them form the initial
concept of system thinking. When studying molar volume of gas, the
teacher took as the starting point the four famous Chinese ancient
inventions and then moved further to the study of rocket propeller.
From the viewpoint of a student at secondary school, they gradually
uncover the underpinning theories of rocket propeller. This process
brought to them a great sense of achievement and joy. Such a process
is beyond any imagination in our traditional teaching conduct. It is not
only a harmonious combination of system thinking and the studying
of chemistry theories, but in addition, it brings the fundamental
reforms in the chemistry education at secondary schools.

Study on Applicability of System Dynamics for
Stock Price Realization

Inspired by the transdisciplinary nature of system dynamics (SD) and
previous research on the efficient market hypothesis, I applied SD to
help understand the long-term price realization in stock market. After
innovatively identifying the components for SD modeling in line with
the features of stock price movement, the conceptual causality model
and simulation equations for experiment, mainly driven by intrinsic
values, are set up and tested for two distinctive examples: WM
Morrison Supermarket ple and Tadpole Technology ple. The
experimental outcomes show that with appropriate estimates of
attributes the SD model is well capable of reflecting the trend of long-
term price realization and the applicability of SD for it also has been
empirically justified, however the short-term price waves are out of
my model’s competence due to the exclusion of short-term adaptive
attributes and the difficulty to specify the exact influence of noise
factors at present.

86 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Nitin R. Joglekar
joglekar@bu.edu

Boston University

School of Management

595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston MA 02215 USA

Charles A. Jones
skuk_jones@yahoo.com

University of Massachusetts Boston
26 Walk Hill Street #2

Jamaica Plain MA 02130

USA

Andreas Patric Jost
andreas.jost@dcx.com
DaimlerChrysler Research &
Technology
Wilhelm-Runge-Str 11
89013 Ulm

Germany

Tobias Lorenz
spaceS6@freenet.de
University of Bergen
Villaveien 3

5007 Bergen
Norway

Gerald Mischke
gerald.mischke@daimlerchrysler.com
DaimlerChrysler Corp

HPC G252

Mercedesstr 137

D-70327 Stuttgart

Germany

A Behavioral View of Core-Periphery
Dynamics in Social Networks

We model the dynamics associated with evolution of the core and the
periphery of a social-network. The model is based on an existing
behavioral theory of the inter-firm (Baum and Ingram 2002). The
formalization allows us to refine this existing theory through the
introduction of a target setting process. Allied analysis documents the
efficacy of exploration and exploitation policies within the core and
across the periphery of a social network. Our results show that the
competitive advantage accrued through exploration and exploitation is
crucially affected by the behavioral biases, imitation and the target
setting associated with the evolution of key constructs.

Behavioral Theory In Simulation: Ambiguous
Results From Simple Relationships

A system dynamics model of individual performance is developed and
simulated. Performance, a behavioral factor, depends upon and
influences emotional and cognitive factors: stress, mood, and
motivation. Activation, found in both stress and motivation literatures,
is treated separately. Each causal relationship is assumed to be simple
and unambiguous. Analysis of the model output under a range of work
conditions shows that ambiguous or complex relationships would be
supported by traditional research. Complex relationships between
stress, motivation, and individual performance emerge from model
structure and interactions, rather than from assumed causality. This
work demonstrates the benefit of simulation in theorizing when
multiple factors operate in tandem.

Modeling the Innovation-Pipeline

Regularly generating innovative products is a key success factor in
established industries. Major companies frequently outpace each other
with innovations and product offensives. But what are the effects of
such initiatives? And how can companies organize their innovation
pipelines in order to successfully manage such ventures? The process
in which innovations are developed and integrated into marketable
products is highly complex and can be organized in various ways. An
important distinction introduced by this paper is to separate between
product development processes and processes for innovation
generation. In established industries the first ones regularly initiate
product development projects and strive to meet certain launch
periods. The latter are problem-solution oriented and driven by the
search for new, innovative concepts. They are characterized by risk
and a high degree of uncertainty regarding success und completion
time.This paper introduces a work-in-progress-model of such
innovation pipelines oriented at the typical structures in the
automotive industry.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 87
Andreas Patric Jost
andreas.jost@dex.com
DaimlerChrysler Research &
Technology
Wilhelm-Runge-Str 11
89013 Ulm

Germany

Alexander Franke
franke_alex@web.de

DaimlerChrysler

Phil Joyce
philj@it.swin.edu.au
Swinburne University
Johns Street
Hawthorne Melbourne
Australia

Graham W. Winch
graham.winch@plymouth.ac.uk
University of Plymouth
Plymouth Business School
Drake Circus

Plymouth PL4 8AA

UK

Jan Juerging
juerging@is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar

Schloss Suedfluegel
Mannheim 68131

Germany

Peter M. Milling
pmilling@is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University

Schloss $ 203 Industrieseminar
D-68131 Mannheim

Germany

Residual Value Analysis

Residual values are considered of major importance for an automotive
product/brand in various aspects. They are believed to have a major
influence on attributes such as: new car sales, pricing options,
buyback risk, and image perception. The presented paper refers to a
work in progress model developed for the analysis of residual values
in the automotive industry. It is designed to analyze how an
automotive company can support and take advantage of residual
values. Among others, the following questions are addressed: -What
are leverages/policies that effect residual values? -Which
leverages/policies are particularly _ effective/sensitive? -What
effects/consequences regarding the new car business are to expect by
changes in residual values? Although the model is designed and
developed for practical use in the automotive industry and can not be
revealed in detail, it provides important aspects that are worthy of
discussion with experts in the field of System Dynamics. It represents
a new approach to the subject of residual values and connects to
previous work such as Sterman (2002). The developed model
realistically reproduces the course of residual values in relation to
specified market cycles and given exogenous factors. It has proven
valuable for questions regarding effective leverages and policies to
residual values.

An Integrating Framework for Internet-Based
E-Business Ventures in Service-Based and
Product Supply Chains

For many organisation going on line in an eBusiness venture is often
fraught with difficulties in discerning the strategy and value in such a
venture and the possible outcomes. Organisations are revisiting their
services and/or products and developing eBusiness systems that are
capable of exploiting the organisations business supply chains.
Central to any development of this nature is the manager’s
understanding of the implications of an Internet eBusiness venture to
the organisation and industry they wish to compete in. This paper
outlines an insight into a framework for mapping business process
models onto service and product based business models.

Interdependencies of Product Development
Decisions and the Production Ramp-up

Many companies, especially in high tech industries, are facing
shrinking product lifecycles and increasingly complex production and
product technologies. Selling many products in semiconductors, disk-
drives or products in telecommunications has shrunk has shrunk to a
time span less than a year. These market dynamics pressure
production facilities to begin full scale production at a point when the
underlying process technology is still ill understood. Consequently
companies suffer from substantial yield losses, which can
dramatically affect the economics of the product, production facility,

88 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Christian Erik

Kampmann
cek.Ipf@cbs.dk

Copenhagen Business School
Kolshoejen 8

DK-8800 Viborg

Denmark

Rogelio Oliva
roliva@tamu.edu

Texas A&M University

Mays Business School

325M Wehner - 4217

College Station TX 77843-4217
USA

Kyungmin Kang
psalm23@ihanyang.ac.kr
Hanyang University

17 Heangdang-dong
Seongdong-gu

Seoul 133-791 Korea

Moosung Jae
jae@hanyang.ac.kr
Hanyang University
Dept of Nuclear Eng

17 Haengdang Sungdong
Seoul 133-791

South Korea

Shivraj Kanungo
kanungo@gwu.edu

George Washington University
Monroe Hall 302H

2115 G Street NW
Washington DC 20052

USA

and business. The production ramp-up will be defined as the time span
equal to the difference between ‘time to market’ and’ time to volume’.
A major goal of innovators is to reduce the ‘time to market’, but they
cannot evaluate the effects on the ‘time to volume’. This paper will
give insights in these interdependencies and compare two policies for
the management of changes during production ramp-up.

Loop Eigenvalue Elasticity Analysis: Three
Case Studies

The paper explores the application of loop eigenvalue elasticity
analysis (LEEA) to three models in order to reveal the potential of the
method for generating insights about model behavior and to uncover
issues in developing the method further. The results indicate that the
utility of the method depends upon the character of the model and
dynamics involved. In models where the transient behavior is of
interest, the method yields insights on par with the pathway
participation method, though better tools to link the method to time
paths of particular variables is needed. In models involving near-
equilibrium oscillation, LEEA is clearly the most powerful, though
more efficient computer programs are needed to handle large-scale
models. In highly non-linear models exhibiting deterministic chaos,
LEEA, being based upon linear concepts, does not appear to yield any
insight because the eigenvalues may change substantially even when
the mode of behavior appears constant. The paper also describes the
set of tools and processes that we have developed and the design for a
web-based toolbox to make the methods readily available to a wider
audience in the hope that others will join the efforts to develop
analytical methods for interpreting model behavior.

Development of An Ingestion Pathways Model
Using System Dynamics

In this study, a dynamic model for ingestion pathway has been
developed and applied for considering several agricultural practices,
and food consumption behavior, etc. It is shown that the dynamic
radiological model can be used as a tool for comprehensive ingestion
dose assessment during accidental release of radionuclides.

Maturity Dynamics in Software Process
Improvement: Analyzing the High Maturity
Equilibrium
In this paper we focus on understanding what it means to operate at
high maturity levels in a software organization and also address a

specific facet of the improvement paradox caused by changing
business policy. Using system dynamics modeling and basing our

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 89
Vikas Jain

vikas j@gwu.edu

George Washington University
2115 G StNW

MON 403

Washington DC 20052 USA

Asha Goyal

gasha@in.ibm.com

IBM Global Services India

DLF Silokhera Sector 30

NH-8 Opp 32 Milestone

Gurgaon Pin 122002 Haryana India

Florian Kapmeier
florian.kapmeier@bwi.uni-stuttgart.de
Universitat Stuttgart
Betriebswirtschafiliches Inst Abt IV
Keplerstr 17

70174 Stuttgart Germany

Andjelka Kelic
sly@mitedu

MIT

38 Glenwood Ave
Cambridge MA 02139
USA

Michael S. Kennedy
mike.kennedy@Isbu.ac.uk

London South Bank University
School of Computing IS and Maths
103 Borough Road

London SE1 0AA UK

hypotheses on empirical data as well as past research, we simulate
various scenarios. Given that our domain of research includes
relatively few high maturity software organizations (implying,
thereby, the sparseness of research data and our consequent
dependence for insights on the world of work) we based our work on
published empirical data that was complemented by other sources of
data from the industry. Results from this study will help improve our
understanding of the improvement paradox. Our findings are directly
beneficial to software organizations seeking to protect and leverage
their investment in process improvement — especially in an industry
where second chances are rare.

Common and Private Goals in Learning
Alliances

This paper proposes a model that gives deeper insights into the
dynamics of interorganizational learning at the example of an alliance
of two partnering firms. Current alliance research often tends to
neglect a feedback-perspective which might be the reason why certain
behavioral effects cannot be explained. However, we identify some
major feedback-loops that influence interorganizational learning
dynamics based on literature-based alliance research. Here, we focus
on the concept of common and private benefits. According to
literature findings the dilemma between the two kinds of benefits
determines how many resources the parent companies invest in the
alliance. We show how gatekeepers might lead a learning alliance to
common success. We also show how short-term views of potential
private benefits might not only lead to failed common goal attainment
but also ruin a firm’s collaborative reputation in the industry.

Government Policy vs. the Fiber-to-the-Home
Supply Chain

A policy for rapid deployment of fiber-to-the-home may be in direct
conflict with the health of the transceiver component supplier
industry. The interests of consumers, regulators, and even service
providers are in conflict with the industry that provides a critical
component necessary for the service. The industry needs to recognize
this conflict and explore strategies to keep itself viable in light of
these conflicts. A system dynamics model is used to explore the
effects of government policy on the deployment of fiber-to-the-home
as a broadband technology. Specifically this article investigates the
effects of a policy for rapid broadband deployment on the component
supplier that is farthest from the consumer in the value chain.

An Extended Taxonomy of System Dynamics
Models of Information Systems Investment
Appraisal

A number of papers have been published describing various System

90 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Michael S. Kennedy
mike.kennedy@lsbu.ac.uk

London South Bank University
School of Computing IS and Maths
103 Borough Road

London SEl 0AA UK

Dong-Hwan Kim
sddhkim@cau.ac.kr

Chung Ang University

Dept of Public Administration
456-756 Ansung-Si
Kyunggi-Do South Korea

Dynamics (SD) models of the Information Systems Investment
Appraisal Process from several academic and professional viewpoints.
This paper builds on previous papers that provided a catalogue and
classification of this work in order to highlight potential areas of
research in this field of study and to identify system archetypes at
different hierarchical levels and discover new ones. This paper
therefore presents an updated taxonomy of System Dynamics Models
of Information Systems Investment Appraisal. This paper builds on
the earlier taxonomy by widening the scope of the survey of
completed SD investigations in the field. The findings from these
investigations are briefly described. The taxonomy classifies the
completed investigations into five specific areas of concern and six
viewpoints.

An Updated Taxonomy of System Dynamics
Models of Higher Education

A number of papers have been published describing various System
Dynamics (SD) models of Higher Education institutions and issues,
on topics including the role of SD in Corporate Governance, Planning,
Resourcing & Budgeting, Teaching Quality, Teaching Practice,
Microworlds and Enrolment Demand. This paper builds on previous
papers that provided a catalogue and classification of this work in
order to highlight potential areas of research in this field of study and
to identify system archetypes at different hierarchical levels and
discover new ones. This paper therefore presents an updated
taxonomy of System Dynamics Models in Higher Education. This
paper builds on the earlier taxonomy by widening the scope of the
survey of completed SD investigations in higher education
management. The findings from these investigations are briefly
described. The taxonomy classifies the completed investigations into
six specific areas of concern and five hierarchical levels.

Psychological Gaps between Constructors and
Interpreters of Causal Maps

This paper investigates psychological differences between
constructors and interpreters of causal maps. This paper argues that
dissipation effects and dilution effects applies to those who are to
interprete causal maps not to those who construct them. Dissipation
effects are psychological tendency that people perceive causal effect
as weak as the number of causal links increases. Dilution effects occur
when people undervalue the strength of causal relation as the number
of causal variables increases. Experimental results show that
concentration effects opposite to the dissipation effects and dilution
effects explain more correctly the perception of constructors of causal
maps. This paper points out that this asymmetric psychological
tendencies between constructors and interpreters of causal maps is the
psychological source of the communication problems between
systems thinkers and their clients.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 91
Hyunjung Kim
hk8459@albany.edu

University at Albany

11 South Lake Avenue Apt 110
Albany NY 12203

USA

James A. Goggi
jg0691@albany.edu
Commerce Bank

214 Colonial Road

West Babylon NY 11704
USA

Gerald King
gerardk@deakin.edu.au
Deakin University
Geelong Victoria 3217
Australia

Gus Geursen
gus.geursen@unisa.edu.au
University of South Australia
School of Marketing

GPO Box 2471

Adelaide SA 5001

Australia

Andrey I. Koblov
akoblov@suct.ru

South-Urals State University
Applied Mathematics Dept
Lenina avenue 76
Chelyabinsk 454080 Russia

Alexander B. Blinov
blinov@suct.uu.ru

South Urals Cellular Telephone
Kirova Street 104/122
Chelyabinsk 454000 Russia

System Dynamics Modeling for Long Term
Care Policy

Rising long-term care cost due to increase in senior population is a
serious issue that concerns many public policy makers in the U.S.
States come up with different policies to tackle the problem, and one
of the policies that recently gained much support is a single point of
entry system. The single point of entry is a place where people visit,
have their needs assessed, and obtain information about different long
term care service options. The supporters argue that by implementing
the single point of entry, it is possible to reduce long term care cost by
directing many potential institutional care recipients to better fitted
home and community based care. This paper is about a system
dynamics model built for a government agency that is about to
propose the policy to key decision makers. The modeling process and
insights gained from the model will be discussed in this paper.

The Use of System Dynamics to Examine the
Relationship amongst Quality, Value, Price
and Profitability

This paper argues that the positivist approach adopted by many
studies into the relationship between customer satisfaction and
revenue is limited; the ontology associated with positivism permits
surface relationships only to be determined. What is required is a
method grounded in a more realistic ontology that allows for a deeper
investigation. The paper proposes that system dynamics is one such
method. The differences between the positivist approach and a
systems approach are expounded, and, though the positivist approach
is not completely rejected (on the contrary, it is defended), its
limitations, particularly when applied to a social environment, are
apparent. In particular, the paper expands on the differences between
studies in the natural sciences and those in the social sciences. It is
these contrasts that make extremely suspect an effective translation of
the methodology applied so successfully to the natural sciences,
across to the social environment, and which demands an alternative
methodology. This paper presents one such methodology and posits
system dynamics clearly within that methodology.

Mobile Service Market Model of the Region

Paper presents a system dynamics approach to modeling mobile
service competitive market of the region. The model includes dynamic
competition between operators. The pricing policy, service quality,
subscriber base, potential subscribers, marketing, etc influence their
number of subscribers. The task of defining the market share carrying
capacity to forecast the sales process is described. The method for the
saturation level identification is considered and the problem of the
optimal pricing is formulated. Real data from several regions of
Russia and Europe are used in this paper.

92 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Vladimir I. Shiryaev
vis@prima.susu.ac.ru
South-Urals State University
Dept of Applied Mathematics
pr Lenina 76

454080 Chelyabinsk Russia

Davorin Kofjac
davorin,kofjac@fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Science
Kidriceva 55a

4000 Kranj Slovenia

Miroljub Kljajic

miroljub kljajic@fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Sciences

Kidriceva cesta 55a
S1-4000 Kranj Slovenia

Andrej Skraba
andrej.skraba@fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor

Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a

S1-4000 Kranj Slovenia

Valter Rejec
valter.rejec@iskra-ae.com
Iskra Avtoelektrika dd
Polje 15

5290 Sempeter pri Gorici
Slovenia

Birgit Kopainsky
birgit.kopainsky@iaw.agrl.ethz.ch
Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology

Agricultural Economics SOL F10
Sonneggstrasse 33

CH-8092 Ziirich

Switzerland

Luis F. Luna-Reyes

luisf luna@udlap.mx

Universidad de las Americas Puebla
School of Business NE-221J

Santa Catarina Martir

Cholula Puebla 72820

Mexico

The Virtual Reality Concept for the
Warehouse Simulation Model Implementation

This paper presents the method of warehouse simulation model
implementation using concepts of virtual reality. The basic idea is to
compare the "Real process" controlled by operator with his/her
heuristics with the "Virtual process" represented by simulation model,
controlled by the optimization algorithm. Optimization algorithm is
based on SD model of the warehouse and decision support module.
The SD warehouse model represents the abstraction of "Virtual
process" and is considered as a model of a model. The state of the
"Virtual process" is controlled with help of decision support module
and is compared with the state of Real process on the basis of actual
information regarding the state of warehouse. This concept is useful
for predictive model validation where the parallel observation of the
actual system and virtual one takes place at the same time, and for the
optimization algorithm migration into practice.

David Sirok
david.sirok@iskra-ae.com
Iskra Avtoelektrika dd

Polje 15

SI-5290 Sempeter pri Gorici
Slovenia

Reflections on Theory Building and Theory
Integration Following a System Dynamics
Approach

Conceptualization is a critical task in the development of system
dynamics models, which starts early in the modeling process, and
extends to later stages in the development of any system dynamics
project. The procedures and characteristics of model conceptualization
have striking parallels with the process of theory building as described
in many different strands of literature. Considering also that the
modeling process as a whole is an iterative process of comparing and
contrasting data and current theories by means of a rigorous yet
intuitive process, it seems appropriate to reflect on the modeling
process as a theory building effort, which is the main purpose of this
paper. In order to illustrate the differences between theory building
approaches, the paper presents two examples of system-dynamics-
based theory building efforts. Thinking of the model development
work as a theory building process has the potential of bringing new
insights to the conceptualization of system dynamics models, and to
the criteria used to assess the suitability of our models. The paper

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 93
Victor V. Korobitsin
korobits@univer.omsk.su
Omsk State University

55A Mira pr

Omsk 644077Russia

Julia V. Frolova
Omsk State University
55A Mira pr

Omsk 644077Russia

Nina Kostina

knid0@yahoo.com

State Tax Administration of Ukraine
8 Feodory Pushinoy Str Apt 222
Kiev 03 115

Ukraine

Victor Bazylevich
bazil@econom.univ.kiev.ua

Kiev Taras Shevchenko National
Univ

90a Vasilkovskaya St

Kyiv 03022

Ukraine

Lubomir Kostron
kos@fss.muni.cz

Masaryk University
School of Social Studies
Gorkeho 7

602 00 Brno

Czech Republic

Marek Susta
m.susta@proverbs.cz
Proverbs Corporation
Zitna 52

120 00 Prague 2
Czech Republic

concludes with the introduction of a set of criteria to assess good
theories and with reflections on the further development of these
criteria for model validation purposes.

Landscape Delimitation between Ethnoses by
Modelling

The aim of presented research is the construction of mathematical
model of ethnic field. The model is described by the system of
parabolic equations. It is the tools for research the evolution of
interactive ethnic systems under landscape influence. The ethnic
system includes a few ethnoses and provides their interactions. The
interactions transmit by ethnic fields. This model describes the
behavior of society on ethnic solidarity level. The software TERRI is
used for the forecast of arising the ethnic conflicts. We carry out
analysis of simulation results of ethnic fields: ethnic map coloring;
delimitation three borders between super-ethnoses on the ethnic map
of investigation region; comparison the experimental data with the
facts; relationship of ethnic fields model with real ethnic processes.
Based on simulation result the researcher can compute the direction of
ethnic field distribution and the most probable points of skirmish
between ethnoses.

Multipurpose Simulation Systems for Regional
Development Forecasting

We examine the development of automaton-modeling multipurpose
simulation systems as an efficient form of simulation software. Such
systems constitute a singe problem-oriented package of applications
based on general simulation model, which is equipped with task
source language, interaction, and file management tools, and an output
editor. The simulation models are described by the method of
probabilistic-automaton modeling, which ensures standard
representation of the modeling algorithm. An example of such
systems includes the Demographic Forecasting System (DEPROG)
main description of which is represented in the article.

Communicating the Vision of an Urban City
Development: A Model

A small group at the School of Social studies in Brno and Proverbs
Inc. Prague, Czech republic, worked on a composition of a model,
which is to test communication policies. The City hall faces problems
in communication and explaining some of its long-range goals. The
model is derived from the J.W. Forrester’s model of urban growth and
includes also some ,,soft* variables, which seriously effect the
perceived leadership role of the City hall and its ability to proceed
further and to gain public support. The paper discloses the structure of
the model as well as the process of its construction and obstacles,
which the group encountered while attempting to offer its expert
service.

94 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Ladislav Lakomy
lakomy@mybox.cz
Masaryk University
Dept of Psychology
School of Social Studies
Brno Czech Republic

Michael Krail
krail@iww.uni-karlsruhe.de
University of Karlsruhe

Inst for Economic Policy Research
Kollegium am Schloss Bau IV
76128 Karlsruhe Germany

Veasna Kum
veasna_kum@yahoo.com

Royal University of Phnom Penh
Dept of Environmental Science
Main Bld

Russian Confederation Blvd
Phnom Penh Cambodia

Martin H. Kune
mkunc@london.edu
London Business School
Regent's Park

London NWI 4SA UK

John D. W. Morecroft
jmorecroft@london.edu
London Business School
Regent's Park

London NW1 4SA UK

Quantification of Climate Policy Scenarios for
Long-Term Trends in Sustainability in ASTRA

One aim of this paper is to show the mode of action of the integrated
transport-economic-environment model ASTRA that is based on the
System Dynamics Modelling method. Furthermore two policy
scenarios - one in which a tax per ton of CO2 emitted by transport will
be introduced and another with a significant increase of crude oil price
until 2020 - will be compared to a reference case. The reference
scenario results will be analysed to identify long-term trends in
transport, economy and environment. The scenarios results show the
impact on a sustainable development by an introduction of transport
emission pricing by policy makers on the one hand and of a stronger
increase of crude oil prices based on the fact of growing scarcity of oil
resources on the other hand.

A System Dynamics Study of Solid Waste
Recovery Policies in Phnom Penh City

There is an economic reason to extend the useful life of the landfill
because once the old landfill is filled, the new one can be found only
at greater distance, and this increases remarkably the transportation
cost. Therefore, waste has to be recovered as much as possible. To do
this, in developing countries context, small scale composting
promotion is widely accepted and the contribution of informal
recycling is also widely recognized. The question remains to what
extent composting and informal recycling contribute to the waste
diversion. To create a platform for discussion and learning, a model is
established. The model in this paper is based on the system dynamics
(SD) approach. The simulation results with the data collected in
Phnom Penh city, Cambodia, show that waste recovery through small-
scale composting and informal recycling cannot contribute
significantly to the waste diversion without other supporting policies.

Competitive Advantage, Strategy and Problem
Structuring: Revealing the Role of Managerial
Cognitive Asymmetries

The resource-based view of strategy (RBV) seeks to explain why
some firms consistently outperform rivals in the same industry by
acquiring a unique set of strategic assets (or resources). We suggest
firms achieve competitive advantage through ‘cognitive asymmetries’
(differences between dominant managerial mental models) that lead
rival management teams to implement distinct resource building

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 95
Martin H. Kune
mkunc@london.edu
London Business School
Regent's Park

London NWI 4SA

UK

Chet Labedz
labedz@be.edu

Boston College

PO Box 114057

North Providence RI 02911
USA

George Stalker
georgestalker@dataleaf net
Dataleaf Technologies Inc
486 Concord Street
Carlisle MA 01741

USA

strategies. This managerial and cognitive view of competition and
rivalry lends itself to investigation through problem structuring
methods. We suggest that resource maps, as a problem structuring
method, can be used to interpret managerial mental models for
strategic decision-making in terms of resource building processes.
Through resource maps, we represent the system of asset stocks
believed to be most important for driving business performance. We
illustrate the framework by comparing and contrasting maps of the
system of resources (asset stocks) that best characterise the four
leading firms in the UK Commercial Radio Broadcasting Industry.

Illustrating the Competitive Dynamics of an
Industry: The Fast-Moving Consumer Goods
Industry Case Study

There are some industries whose strategic innovations are easier and
faster to replicate because the products are mostly commodities, one
of such industries is the fast-moving consumer goods industry
(FMCG). In the fast-moving consumer goods industry, companies
face a very difficult, if not almost impossible, task developing a
competitive advantage based on differentiation or low cost strategies.
The main reason is that competitors match or, even overtake
innovations and costs reductions in a very short period. A case study
illustrates the competitive dynamics of a market segment of this
industry using a behavioral model (Morecroft, Lane, and Viita, 1991).
The model captures the management team understanding of the
competitive dynamics of the industry.

Addressing Methodological Issues in
Simulating a Human Resources Problem
across Multiple Levels of Observation

Problems of strategic human resource management, such as proposed
reductions in prospective retirement benefits under an American
pension plan, present complex challenges. Typically, a firm pursues
strategic objectives such as Cost control through changes in focal
policies and programs affecting its workforce. At such times a firm
should be wary of long-term consequences among individual
employees, since the firm, its programs, and its employees, comprise a
three-level feedback system. Unintended consequences at the micro-
organizational level may lead in turn to additional unpleasant
surprises at the program or firm levels. This paper discusses the
development of a simulation model combining the approaches of
agent based and system dynamics disciplines in addressing a client’s
multi-level concerns. It articulates differences between the agent
based and system dynamics modeling disciplines in the service of this
task, and discusses issues of implementation and praxis which have
governed our design at points of tangency between these approaches
in such a hybrid model.

96 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Peter Lacey
peter.lacey@ndirect.co.uk

Whole Systems Partnership
The Old Crown

Farnham North Yorks HGS 9JD
UK

Rene LeClaire

rjl@lanl. gov
Los Alamos National Laboratory
275 Kimberly Lane

Los Alamos NM 87544

USA

B. Bush

bwb@lanl.gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663

Los Alamos NM 87545

USA

Lori Dauelsberg
lorid@lanl.gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663 MS K557

Los Alamos NM 87545

USA

Dennis Powell

drpowell@lanl gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663

Los Alamos NM 87545

USA

Rene LeClaire
rfl@lanl.gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
275 Kimberly Lane

Los Alamos NM 87544

USA

Futures through the Eyes of a Health System
Simulator

A demonstration and discussion of the process and benefits of
building a ‘high level’ strategic simulation tool for a UK Health
Authority seeking to build an evidence base to support strategic
investment decisions across the primary and secondary health care
system. The presentation will discuss the key drivers for change and
performance expectations in the UK health system. It will describe the
rationale behind the Health Authority's request and the means of
delivering on this. Particular emphasis will be placed on the learning
process that took place during model construction, the key links to
strategic decision making, evidence of the benefits to the Authority
during and since the simulator development and the way in which the
simulator tool has been placed locally to inform and influence
performance monitoring. The workshop will demonstrate the model
itself as well as outputs generated by at least one ‘future scenarios’
workshop held locally.

Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision
Support System

The Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System
(CIP/DSS) simulates the dynamics of individual infrastructures and
couples separate infrastructures to each other according to their
interdependencies. For example, repairing damage to the electric
power grid in a city requires transportation to failure sites and delivery
of parts, fuel for repair vehicles, telecommunications for problem
diagnosis and coordination of repairs, and the availability of labor.
The repair itself involves diagnosis, ordering parts, dispatching crews,
and performing work. The electric power grid responds to the initial
damage and to the completion of repairs with changes in its operating
characteristics. Dynamic processes like these are represented in the
CIP/DSS infrastructure sector simulations by differential equations,
discrete events, and codified rules of operation. Many of these
variables are output metrics estimating the human health, economic,
or environmental effects of disturbances to the infrastructures.

S. DeLand

smdelan@sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories

M. Samsa
msamsa@anl.gov

Argonne National Laboratory 9700 S

PO Box 5800 Cass Avenue
Albuquerque NM 87185 Argonne IL 60439
USA USA

Leveraging a High Fidelity Switched Network
Model to Inform a System Dynamics Model of
the Telecommunications Infrastructure

A generic representation of the telecommunications infrastructure in a
metropolitan area designed to be integrated into a much larger

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 97
Gerald O'Reilly
goreilly@lucent.com

Bell Laboratories/Lucent
Technologies

Lucent Technologies

101 Crawfords Corner Rd
Holmdel NJ 07733

USA

Rene LeClaire
rjl@lanl.gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
275 Kimberly Lane

Los Alamos NM 87544 USA

Dennis Powell

drpowell@lanl gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663

Los Alamos NM 87545 USA

Jeanne Fair

jmfair@lanl gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663

Los Alamos NM 87545 USA

Leslie Moore

Imoore@lanl.gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663

Los Alamos NM 87545 USA

David Thompson
dthome@comcast.net

Crescent Solutions

1102 Russell Drive

Highland Beach FL 33487 USA

Man-Hyung Lee
manlee@cbnu.ae.kr

Chungbuk National University
Dept of Urban Planning and Eng
12 Kaeshin-Dong Heungduck-Ku
Cheongju 361-763

South Korea

simulation of the seventeen key infrastructures[1] has been
implemented in Vensim[2]. This Critical Infrastructure Protection
Decision Support System (CIP/DSS) is designed to provide insights
for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in making decisions
about investments related to critical infrastructure protection[3].
Although a system dynamics representation was well suited to
representing the dynamics and interdependencies in this complex
system of systems, it was recognized early on that collaborations with
key infrastructure domain experts and organizations would be
important to the success of the project. This paper summarizes the
results of a collaborative effort with Bell Laboratories, Lucent
Technologies to leverage a detailed switched network simulation to
inform the telecommunications system dynamics model in CIP/DSS.

Sensitivity Analysis of an Infectious Disease
Model

A model of infectious diseases has been developed for integration
within a larger simulation structure to assess the interdependencies of
critical infrastructures. The model has been parameterized to model a
disease outbreak a large metropolitan area. The model subsequently
calculates the spread of the infection and the influence of vaccination
policies, quarantine and isolation procedures. Consequences are
deaths, illnesses, and a variety of economic costs. Sensitivity analysis
is a statistical technique to investigate how uncertainty in the input
variables affects the model outputs and which input variables tend to
drive variation in the outputs. Such analysis can provide critical
information for decision makers and public health officials who may
have to deal with the realities of a virulent infectious disease. This
paper presents the results of preliminary analyses of the effects of
inputs to the infectious disease model on the calculated consequences.

Resource Cyclical Dynamics of Electric and
Electronic Equipment Waste

As a practical means to upgrade urban sustainability, this paper
focuses on resource cyclical systems concerned with electric and
electronic equipment waste (EEEW) in Korea. Borrowing System
Dynamics concepts and approaches, it examines behavioral changes
of EEEW dynamics to see whether the existing management methods
can be readjusted. The measurement is based upon both reuse and
material and thermal recycle simulation works in the individual stage
of EEEW discharge, collection, and treatment, going beyond the
traditional recycle-only customs. This research estimates that the
newly introduced Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) system

98 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Tsuey-Ping Lee
tping@mail.thu.edu.tw

Tunghai University

Department of Public Administration
181 Taichung-kang Rd Sec 3
Taichung Taiwan ROC

Geng Li

gli005@student.uib.no

University of Bergen

Postbox 366 Fantoft Studentboliger
5075 Bergen

Norway

would definitely exert a significant impact on the final stage of EEEW
treatment, decreasing the final treatment volume in the first half of the
research period. The trend, nonetheless, would be reversed in the
second half, mainly owing to the additional waste volume originated
from the local government and recycling center. Sensitivity analysis
poses, among others, that the local government-supported reuse center
should take charge of a pivotal role in the EEEW management and
treatment in the long run. The research also shows that sufficient and
necessary conditions for the EEEW management and treatment should
be given to the combined efforts, both from the private sectors and the
public domains. Based on these research findings, the paper
recommends that key stakeholders including the producer and the
public organizations should devise how to carry out specific agenda
centered around partnership or network buildings.

Implementing Local Social Welfare Policy: A
Systems Dynamics Perspective

This article intends to conceptualize the problem of low interagency
collaboration in implementing local social welfare policies into a
system dynamics model. This conceptualized model is introduced to
explore the possible factors facilitating and hindering interagency
collaboration between Department of Social Welfare (DSW) of city
government and Social Affairs Section (SAS) of district office in both
Taipei City and Kaohsiung City of Taiwan. The model combines
insights from policy implementation theory, qualitative data from
interviews with DSW and SAS staffs, and system dynamics
literatures. Although this model is not yet formulated, several insights
have been obtained. This study finds that the institutional design has
made cooperation between two agencies difficult. Such an interagency
relationship is reluctant compliance rather than partnership. This
article argues that a homogeneous realization of the cooperation
pattern among implementation participants is necessary for building
effective interagency relationships in policy implementation.

Modeling the Effect of Information Feedback
on the SARS Epidemic in Beijing

Compared with many preventable epidemics, how did a relatively
insignificant disease like SARS develop into an international scare?
This article describes the application of system dynamics to
understand the SARS epidemic in Beijing. The powersim model
simulates the structure of transmission dynamics and factors that
impact the epidemic. Here, the probable impacts of changes in the
system delays, including delays to quarantine, delays of disease
diagnose, and the authorities’ epidemic information transmitting
delays, are discussed. The model aims to present detailed
understanding of delayed feedback mechanisms inherent to eliminate
the misperceptions of basic dynamics, and then to design high
leverage policies for preventing SARS. The article concludes that an
open and transparent public information system is the most powerful

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 99
Jun Lin

linjun@nus.edusg

National University of Singapore
QRE Lab ISE Dept BIk El 407-17
10 Kent Ridge Crescent

11920 Singapore

Kah Hin Chai
iseckh@nus.edusg
National University of Singapore
Dept Industrial & Systems
Engineering Singapore

Yoke San Wong
mpewys@nus.edusg

National University of Singapore
Department of Mechanical
Engineering Singapore

Aarnout C. Brombacher
a.c.brombacher@tm.tue.nl

Eindhoven University of Technology
Faculty of Technology Management
Eindhoven The Netherlands

Chao-Yueh Liu
chaoyueh.liu@gmail.com
University at Albany
14 Niblock Ct F12
Albany NY 12206
USA

Wei-Tsong Wang
ww8256@albany.edu

University at Albany

School of Information Science &
Policy

840 Washington Avenue

Albany NY 12203

USA

Elaine Lizeo
elaine.lize
MIT
Sloan School of Management
305 Memorial Dr 211A
Cambridge MA 01239 USA.

@sloan.mit.edu

weapon to curb SARS panics. The government’s prompt epidemic
information feedback system and relatively instant strong quarantine
policies have substantial impacts on containing SARS epidemic.

Dynamic Modeling of Distributed Product
Development Processes

Market and technology changes have brought about new
characteristics of product development. One of the most significant
changes from the traditional to the new paradigm is the change from
sequential and collocated development processes to concurrent and
distributed processes. Although some researchers have built models of
development processes and product development performance, most
of these studies are about collocated development projects where the
coordination between tasks is not explicitly studied. Consequently,
there is a need to model the relationships between development
processes and project cycle time in the distributed context, with
special attention to the coordination between tasks. With the support
of a design company, we developed and validated the model with data
from mobile phone projects.

A System Dynamics Approach to Simulation of
Tax Policy for Traditional and Internet Phone
Services

Voice Over Internet Protocol (VOIP) is the fastest-growing market in
the United States. VOIP technology provides telephone-like service
without the restrictions of telecommunication regulations. State
governments fear that more calls traveling over Internet protocol (IP)
enabled phone services will impact on the heavily-taxed fixed line
phone service, which means less tax revenue to support crucial public
services. However, states are struggling with how to tax VOIP
services and reduce the impact of VOIP development. In this paper,
we build a system dynamics model to gain insight into interactions
between the VOIP market, traditional phone market, and tax policy.
Two tax policy tests reviewed in this paper show tax policy does not
significantly affect market competition. In addition, we show
government is able to collect sufficient funds when applying new tax
policy. We believe the model can help policy makers find a better way
to collect maximum tax revenue with less impact on the market.

A Dynamic Model of Group Learning and
Effectiveness

The objective of this study is to explore the factors that influence the
quality of group learning and group effectiveness in organizations.
Learning enables groups to acquire new skills, improve processes,

100 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Yu-Tang Lo
m9141616@student.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University
PO Box 59-35

Kaohsiung 804

Taiwan ROC

Shyh-Jane Li
d9041813@student.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Yat-Sen University
PO Box 59-35

Kaohsiung 804

Taiwan ROC

Yu-Lung Hsueh

yulung. hsueh@gmail.com

National Sun Yat-sen University
PO Box 59-35

Kaohsiung

Taiwan ROC

Showing H. Young
young@cm.nsysu.edu.tw

National Sun Yat-Sen University
Department of Business
Management

PO Box 59-35

Kaohsiung Taiwan

Corey Lofdahl
clofdahl@bos.saic.com

SAIC

Simulation and Info Technology Div
20 Burlington Mall Road Ste 130
Burlington MA 01803 USA

find new ways of working, and enhance their decision-making
process. However, group learning is affected by a set of structural,
cognitive and interpersonal factors, which may foster or hinder the
engagement of group members in learning-oriented activities. This
study regards work groups as complex social systems and suggests
that the explanation of the quality of learning and the effectiveness of
a group lies in the interrelations of these factors. Existing research on
group learning tends to follow an input-process-output approach; in
contrast, this study offers a system dynamics model to explore the
intricate relationships that arise from the factors such as group
dynamics and leader behavior and that influence the outcomes of a
work group. Although the model is highly aggregated, the simulation
results can improve our understanding of the interrelations of key
factors that influence group learning and effectiveness and farther the
path for future research using system dynamics to study work groups
as complex systems.

China Dynamics: Limits to Growth?

1989, Berlin Wall collapsed; 1991, Soviet Union collapsed;
communists systems around the world collapsed one after the other.
Communist China not only survived, but started to grow even
stronger. Why? Our research tries to use systems approach to better
understand these issues. We first use systems thinking to analyze
China’s economic growth, which showed limits to growth archetypes
with the limit of implicit control goal of Chinese Communist Party
(CCP): maintain unilateral control. Further studies in this research
showed that this implicit control goal relates to the nature of CCP.
Our efforts then focused on the degree of change of this nature. We
found that the nature of CCP, deceit, violence, and control, are still the
same, which are just hidden from the outside world. Our causal loop
analysis also showed that China’s opening reform will lead to
unintended consequences of various socio-economic problems. We
then build a system dynamics model to simulate electricity supply as
just one example to examine its limit to economic growth in China;
the simulation showed a boom and bust result. This research shows
that China will encounter very serious social and economic upheavals
in the near future seems inevitable.

Designing Information Systems with System
Dynamics: A C2 Example

It has long been thought that simulation could be used to design
Command and Control (C2) systems, but simulation’s benefits have
not matched their promise. Instead Enterprise Architecture Planning
(EAP) tools have become ascendant in the design of C2 systems,
though problems remain. EAP tools break down proposed systems
into their low-level, constituent parts and place them into
sophisticated relational databases. The resulting architectures however
do not yield an intuitive sense of whether the proposed system

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 101
Luis Lopez

Inis.lopez@incae.edu

INCAE Graduate School of Business
PO Box 960-4050

Alajuela 4050

Costa Rica

Porfirio Guevara

Roy G. Ziifiga-Saenz
roy.zuniga@incae.edu

INCAE

Apdo Postal 1347-1011 y Griega
San Jose

Costa Rica

Luis Lépez

luis.lopez@incae.edu

INCAE Graduate School of Business
PO Box 960-4050

Alajuela 4050

Costa Rica

Tobias Lorenz
spaceS6@freenet.de
University of Bergen
Villaveien 3

5007 Bergen
Norway

Andrea Marcello Bassi
4141 @stud.liuc.it

University of Bergen

via Jean de Fernex 5
Olgiate Olona VA 21057
Italy

actually solves the motivating problem. Consequently, fundamental
conceptual issues continue to emerge deep into the design process.
This study proposes using simulation early in the design process to
envision the total system and avoid problems by generating
requirements and metrics early in the design process. Issues regarding
an Air Force Air Operations Center (AOC) are explored, most notably
flow of control and the coordination of sensor, decision, and operator
assets.

Forecasting Primary Education Efficiency

Education is considered one of the main drivers of welfare in society.
However, countries in the world follow different paths when creating
basic human capabilities, many of them not in the right direction.
Linear extrapolation is still widely utilized to predict future behavior
based on statistics like the Primary Completion Rate. This paper
presents a dynamic model of primary education as a first step to
understand the structure and behavior of educational systems and as
an alternative way to extrapolate outcomes of this and other relevant
key indicators, like the Gross Enrollment Rate. The model is
calibrated for the case of Nicaragua.

Forgetting Curves: A Case Study

We explore organizational forgetting, the notion that firms’
knowledge can be lost through human capital decay. An in-depth case
study research, which is guided by the conceptualization of a system
dynamics model, is conducted. The evidence appears to support the
presence of forgetting. This gives rise to the possibility of productivity
falling in spite of continued output accumulation, due to changes in
the characteristics of the resource where experience resides. Most
prior research on learning curves, however, assumes that productivity
will always increase with cumulative firm output.

Comprehensibility as a Discrimination
Criterion for Agent-Based Modelling and
System Dynamics: An Empirical Approach

Agent-based modelling seems to be an alternative way of modelling to
System Dynamics. Criteria for discriminating the methodologies, and
criteria for the choice of which one to use, still remain vague. This
study compares both approaches on an empirical basis, utilizing an
exploratory experiment aimed at investigating the respective
comprehensibility of each methodology. The gained results,
considering all the observations, show no significant differences
between the two treatments. Nevertheless if the subjects are grouped
into SD students and non-SD students, differences are observed.
Interestingly it shows an advantage of the AB approach for the SD
student group, whereas the non-SD students seem to have an
advantage with the SD methodology.

102 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Qiang Lu
g.lu@auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
MSIS Department
2/1759 Great North Road
Auckland New Zealand

Kambiz E. Maani
k.maani@auckland.ac.nz

University of Auckland

Business School Tamaki Division
Private Bag 92019

Glen Innes

Auckland AK1005 New Zealand

Alexander Lubyansky
al8295@albany.edu

University at Albany

6 South Lake Avenue Apartment
SIR

Albany NY 12203

USA

Luis F. Luna-Reyes
luisfluna@udlap.mx

Universidad de las Americas Puebla
School of Business NE-221J

Santa Catarina Martir

Cholula Puebla 72820

Mexico

Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
im7797@albany.edu

University at Albany

Milne 318

Rockefeller College

Albany NY 12222

USA

Analyzing the Conflict between Production
and Manufacturing Engineering: A System
Dynamics Model

Based on an in-depth field study in an electronics plant in Singapore,
this paper examines the dynamic interaction between two of the key
functions, Production (P) and Manufacturing Engineering (ME). P and
ME are responsible for process execution and process development
respectively, and for process smoothness jointly; their relationship is
asymmetrical if judged from organizational and structural aspects.
The paper reveals the causes and effects of three types of short-
sighted functional behavior — burden-shifting, resource-fighting, and
corner-cutting. The resulting P-ME conflict due to short-sighted
behaviors is analyzed in a qualitative system dynamics model.
Although this research is based on a single firm, the findings have
implications for many contemporary plants where the proliferation of
new processes puts stress on the P-ME interface. Future researchers
can use more samples to test and theorize the findings of this research.

A System Dynamics Model of Health Care
Surge Capacity

The author has created a system dynamics model to investigate how
health care providers can and should respond to increases in patient
demand for treatment above usual levels. This response by the health
care system is called surge capacity and is an important issue in
emergency and disaster planning and response. The model describes
how hospital and home care treatment providers can alter their
internal staffing and patient treatment policies as well as movements
of staff and patients between each other. These providers can fail to
respond adequately to surge events by exhausting their staff or by
moving too much burden from the hospital sector to the home care
sector.

Group Modeling of IT-Based Innovations in
the Public Sector

The system dynamics group at the Rockefeller College of the
University at Albany has been developing techniques to create system
dynamic models with groups of managers during the last 25 years.
Building upon their tradition in decision conferencing, the group has
developed a particular style that involves a facilitation team in which
people plays different roles. Throughout these years of experience, the
group has also developed several “scripts” to elicit knowledge from
experts based on small-groups research, and well-established practices
in the development of system dynamics models. This paper constitutes
a detailed documentation of a relatively small-scale modeling effort

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 103
Theresa Pardo
tpardo@etg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in
Government

187 Wolf Road

Albany NY 12205 USA

Anthony M. Cresswell
teresswell@ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in
Government

187 Wolf Road

Albany NY 12205 USA

Luis F. Luna-Reyes

Iuisf luna@udlap.mx

Universidad de las Americas Puebla
School of Business NE-221J

Santa Catarina Martir

Cholula Puebla 72820 Mexico

Vedat G. Diker
diker@glue.umd.edu

University of Maryland
College of Information Studies
4105 Hornbake Building
College Park MD 20742 USA

Deborah Lines Andersen
dla@albany.edu

University at Albany

113 Draper Hall

135 Western Avenue

Albany NY 12222 USA

Yufeng Luo
yufengluo@163.com

Wuhan University

School of Water Resources &
Hydropower

8 Donghunan Road

Wuhan Hubei 430072 China

Shahbaz Khan
shahbaz.khan@esiro.au

Charles Sturt University

School of Science and Technology
Wagga Wagga NSW 2650
Australia

Yuanlai Cui

Wuhan University

School of Water Resources &
Hydropower

8 Donghunan Road

Wuhan 430072 China

that took place in early 2001, offering a “soup to nuts” description of
Group Model Building at Albany. The paper describes in detail 8 of
the scripts that the group has developed, offering some reflections
about their advantages and limitations.

David F. Andersen
david.andersen@albany.edu
University at Albany
315A Milne Hall

135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA

George P. Richardson
gpr@albany.edu

University at Albany

Dept of Public Administration &
Policy

Milne 101 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222 USA

Interviewing as a Strategy for the Assessment
of System Dynamics Models

System dynamics requires the intense use of qualitative data and
human judgment in all stages of model development. Most approaches
to the formal inclusion of qualitative data have been developed with
the purposes of knowledge elicitation during the conceptualization or
formulation stages of model development. Although the importance of
using expert judgment to assess the validity of system dynamics
models is well recognized, the development of approaches to use this
kind of judgment is not well developed. In recent years, efforts to
develop tools to assess the validity of system dynamics models by
interviewing experts have been explored in some doctoral work. This
paper reviews the basic concepts of model validation, and explores the
use of interviews as a research and knowledge-acquisition technique.
Finally, it documents and compares four applications of interviewing
as a tool to assess system dynamics models, ending with
recommendations for both the practitioner and researcher.

A System Dynamics Model for Sustainable
Irrigation Water Management in the Lower
Yellow River Basin

This paper describes a system dynamics study to investigate
sustainable irrigation water management of irrigation systems where
water resources scarcity and irrigation-induced soil salinization
threaten the sustainability of irrigated agriculture. The study focuses
on the Liuyuankou Irrigation System (LIS) in the lower Yellow River
Basin, China.In LIS, crops in the upland are usually irrigated with
surface water from the river and crops in the lowland are mainly
irrigated with pumped groundwater. Seepage from irrigated field in
upland is an important source of recharge to lowland groundwater and
if there is not enough recharge to lowland groundwater, deep
watertables increase cost of groundwater abstraction, even result in
overdraft conditions. On the other hand, too much seepage results in
shallow groundwater tables that cause secondary soil salinization. A
conceptual model of the LIS hydrologic system is developed and it is
implemented using the system dynamic tool, Vensim. The validated

104 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
model is used to simulate the responses of groundwater table under
different management scenarios. Analysis of the simulation results
reveal under what conditions the groundwater tables reach alarming
levels and with what strategies it can be controlled and strategies for
sustainable water resources development are investigated.

Kambiz E. Maani Managerial Intervention and Firm’s
k.maani@auckland.ac.nz

University of Auckland Performance

Business School Tamaki Division

Private Bag 92019 Decision-makers and managers have often an irresistible tendency to
Glen Innes Auckland AK 1005 “over intervene” in the systems (companies, organizations,
New Zealand communities, etc) for which they are responsible hence generating

unnecessary fluctuations and instability in their organizations.
Sterman, et al (1989; 2000) and Maani & Li (2004) have studied these
phenomena in simulated and experimental settings. This paper
examines the impact of change and managerial intervention on firm’s
performance. Frequency and magnitude of change actions are used as
proxy for managerial intervention. Based on prevailing assumptions
and common practice two hypotheses are postulated as follows: HO1 :
The more frequent the change (interventions), the better the results.
HO02 : Dramatic change leads to dramatic (positive) results. The above
hypotheses and our own observations collectively inform the key
research question posed in this paper: “How do the style (extent) and
frequency of change and the interpretation of feedback affect the
outcomes of interventions in organizations?” In this research,
Microworlds are employed as proxy for complex systems. Research
subjects comprise MBA and graduate business students and practicing
managers. With some exceptions, the results refute the above
hypotheses and suggest that over intervention could often lead to
counter productive outcomes.

Raymond Madachy Software Business Case Modeling

madach isc.edu

University of Southern California Business value attainment should be a key consideration when
7734 Via Sorrento

Burbank CA 91504 designing software processes. Ideally they are structured to meet

USA organizational business goals, but it is usually difficult to integrate the
process and business perspectives quantitatively. This research uses
modeling and simulation to as-sess process tradeoffs for business case
analysis. An improved model for com-mercial software enterprises
relates the dynamics between product development investments,
software quality practices, market size, license retention, pricing and
revenue generation. The system dynamics model allows one to
experiment with different product strategies, software processes,
marketing practices and pricing schemes while tracking financial
measures over time. It can be used to determine the appropriate
balance of process activities to meet goals. Examples are shown for
varying scope, reliability, delivery of multiple releases, and de-
termining the quality sweet spot for different time horizons. Results
show that optimal policies depend on various stakeholder value
functions, opposing mar-ket factors and business constraints.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 105
Stuart Madnick
smadnick@mit.edu

MIT

30 Wadsworth Street Room E53-321
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

Nazli Choucri
nehoucri@mit.edu

MIT

E53-493

Cambridge MA 01239
USA

Michael Siegel
msiegel@mitedu

MIT

Sloan School E53-323
Cambridge MA 02142
USA

Mohammad Majdalawi
abhjmhm@yahoo.com

Arab Organization for Agricultural
Dev

PO Box 1206 Tela,a Al-Ali

11953 Amman

Abhijit Mandal
abhijit. mandal@wbs.ac.uk
Warwick Business School
ORS Group

Gibbet Hill Road
Coventry CV4 7AL UK

Research Initiative to Understand and Model
State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics

In its Preface, The 9/11 Commission Report states: “We learned that
the institutions charted with protecting ...national security did not
understand how grave this threat can be, and did not adjust their
policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it” (2004: xvi). Given
current realities and uncertainties “better preparedness” can be
achieved by identifying, controlling and managing the elusive
linkages and situational factors that impact state stability and fuel state
decay and destruction — and hence create new threats to the nation’s
security. We propose to focus on the use of system dynamics
modeling techniques to help understand, measure and model the
complex dynamics shaping state stability, initially for two regions.
We will specifically consider the impacts of unanticipated disruptions,
such as a tsunami and its aftermath, on the dynamics of the two
regions. For each region, we will develop a country model, along with
an analysis of conditions and casual links between predicted futures
plus corresponding mitigated options. The presentation will include an
update on the status of this project.

Modeling Re-Used Water in Agriculture and
Its Future Environmental Impact — A Case in
Jordan

The availability of water as a natural resource in the agricultural
sector is directly related to the development of farming and rural
systems. Water quality is closely linked to water use and to the state
of economical development. The re-use of water could be another
source for increasing water availability. The use of high quality water
for irrigation might be reallocated to other sectors. The re-use of water
may, however, potentially engender environmental problems in water
resources. This paper aims to simulate and measure the impact of
future strategies of water availability and quality on the pattern of
crops, and to assess the possibilities of avoiding negative impacts on
the environment. It aims to find out a model could be used and
modified by other countries suffer from water quantity. The dynamic
system approach has been used to analyse the environmental impact
of using treated wastewater on planting different crops. The main
results show that the quantity of treated wastewater increases and the
quality becomes worse over time. The quality of water until 2020 is
suitable for use in irrigating fruit trees in area far from treatment plant
and feed crops in area near treatment plant unless the efficiency of the
treatment plant decreased.

Mental Models, Resource Constraints and
Differential Performance

This paper integrates the resource-based view (RBV) with concepts
from the literature on managerial cognition and organizational slack to

106 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Massimo Maoret
maoretm@cs.unibo.it
University of Bologna
Mura Anteo Zamboni 7
40127 Bologna Italy

Gianluca Colombo
gianluca.colombo@lu.unisi.ch
University of Lugano

Via Giuseppe Buffi 13
CH-6904 Lugano Switzerland

Edoardo Mollona
emollona@cs.unibo.it

Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Department of Computer Science
Mura Anteo Zamboni 7

40127 Bologna Italy

Maria Angélica Martinez
Medina

angelica.martinez!
Tecnologico de Monterrey
Eugenio Garza Sada 2501
Edificio Cedes Oficina $1020
Monterrey Nuevo Leon 64849
Mexico

Carlos Scheel

escheel@itesm.mx

Tecnologico de Monterrey

Ave Eugenia Garza Sada 2501 Sur
Colonia Tecnologico CP 64849
Monterrey Nuevo Leon Mexico

Gloria Pérez Salazar

gloria perez@itesm.mx

Tecnologico de Monterrey

Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
Av E Garza Sada 2501 Sur

64849 Monterrey NL Mexico

Roberto Rodriguez
rjrdz@itesm.mx
Tecnologico de Monterrey

show how shifts in resource constraints can lead to shifts in firm
performance and even industry structure over time. Using a process-
based method, we show that a shift in constraints of resources, under
the moderating impact of heterogeneous mental models and resource
structure, shift resource allocations. In turn, this creates and sustains
resource heterogeneity, leading to differential performance.
Previously developed propositions are tested using simulation in two
strategic business units from a leading player in the UK insurance
industry. The conclusion highlights implications for research methods,
strategy theory and managerial practice.

Why So Many Start-Ups Fail: A Resource-
Based Approach Through System Dynamics

In the article we address recurring causes of failures in starting up a
new company. In particular, we explore flaws in entrepreneurs’
mental model when dealing with feedback and delays in building up
stocks of assets. The work that we are presenting is in progress but
scored the following targets. First, under a theoretical point of view,
we laid down borders to define a theoretical territory where the strong
connections can be observed that entwine literatures on start-up, on
the resource-based view of the firm and system dynamics. Second, we
created an experimental laboratory to test individuals’ recurring
mistakes when dealing with a start-up. Further developments of this
work are in the direction of setting an experimental protocol to
conduct empirical research on a sample of players.

Regional Industrial Development Based on the
Dynamics of the Technological Innovation
Cycle

This paper describes a systems dynamics model that reflects the
possibility of having three levels of complexity together and
articulated on a synchronous synergy of all relevant participants of
value added systems: the activities at the firm level, networks of
industries, and supporting organizations at the regional level.
Following a systemic approach, we have identified eight parameters to
measure the attractiveness effect of a region: Clustering and
associativeness, Value added, Differentiation value, EVA,
Attractiveness leverage, Global market coverage, Innovation and
Social Capital. Based on these indicators, we have developed dynamic
models for emergent industries which have uncertain trends and no
previous regional developments. At this moment we are working on
models for the Software, Biotechnology, Aerospace and Autoparts
Industries that are currently in the process of clustering in the State of
Nuevo Leon (Mexico).

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 107
Ignacio J. Martinez-
Moyano

im7797@albany.edu

University at Albany

Milne 318 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222 USA

David McCaffrey
d.mecaffrey@albany.edu
University at Albany
135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA

Rogelio Oliva
roliva@tamu.edu

Texas A&M University

Mays Business School

325M Wehner - 4217

College Station TX 77843-4217
USA

Ignacio J. Martinez-
Moyano

im7797@albany.edu

University at Albany

Milne 318 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222 USA

R. Joel Rahn
jrahn@sympatico.ca

4636 Sugar Maple Drive
Ottawa ON K1V 1Y6 Canada

Roberta L. Spencer
system.dynamics@albany.edu
System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 Rockefeller College
University at Albany

Albany NY 12222 USA

Ali N. Mashayekhi
mashayekhi@alum.mit.edu

Sharif University of Technology
Grad School of Management and
Econ

PO Box 11365-8639 Azadi Avenue
11365 Tehran Iran

Navid Ghaffarzadegan
navid3000@yahoo.com

Sharif University of Technology
No 14 Sadi Alley

Vali-Asr Ave Tajrish Sq
Tehran [ran

A Dynamic Theory of Rule Compliance:
Evidence from the United States Securities
Industry

This paper uses a system dynamics model to analyze rule compliance
in organizations. The analysis takes securities regulation as an
illustrative case but applies to other private, nonprofit, and public
activities complying with rules overseen by external bodies in the
course of producing goods and services. We consider how three levels
of behavior—producers, internal organizational controllers, and
external regulators—interact in shaping compliance with rules.

The Beer Game: Its History and Rule Changes

This paper explores the history of the Beer Game, its rules, and
lessons. By triangulating information from the literature, archival
analysis, and interviews with experts in the field, we have identified
the main changes in the game over its almost 50-year history.
Additionally, an exploration of possible changes to the game and new
games in the field of system dynamics are examined.

Stock Market Fluctuations: A System
Dynamics Approach

Developing strategic policies which could protect the stock market
from wild fluctuations and bubbles is a challenging area in financial
management. When the price index rises fast, the chances of its
collapsing increase. The collapsing of bubbles leads to large negative
returns. Researchers have argued the stock price behavior does not
always follow the economics fundamentals. There are nonlinear and
complex factors affecting changes in the stock prices. System
dynamics as a way of analyzing complexity and nonlinearity could
give us a new perspective to analyze the dynamic behavior of stock
price index. This paper develops a model to examine main causes of
growth and shrink of stock market index.

108 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Dian Masyita
dianmasyita@fe.unpad.ac.id
Padjadjaran University
Faculty of Economics
Unpad Dipati Ukur no 35
Bandung Indonesia

Muhammad Tasrif
ppeith@bdg.centrin.net.id

Bandung Institute of Technology
Energy Research and Development
Group

JI Ganesha 10

Bandung 40132 Indonesia

Abdi Suryadinata Telaga
abdi.suryadinata@astra-honda.com
Astra Manufacturing Polytechnic
Information System Department
Jakarta

Indonesia

Geoff McDonnell
gmedonne@bigpond.net.au
University of New South Wales
382 Bronte Road

Bronte NSW 2024

Australia

Mark Heffernan
mheffernan@evanspeck.com.au
International System Dynamics Pty
Ltd

20B/390 Eastern Valley Way

East Roseville NSW 2069
Australia

A Dynamic Model for Cash Waqf
Management as One of the Alternative
Instruments for Poverty Alleviation in

Indonesia

This research tries to offer a design of the cash waqf management
system in a system dynamics model. The Cash Wagf Management is
expected to become one of the alternative instruments for the poverty
alleviation programs in Indonesia. These programs require huge
amount of fund that cannot be provided thoroughly by the
government. Therefore, initiation of new sources of fund for such a
program is inevitable. In the Islamic sosio-economic concept, there is
a source of social fund that is economically and politically free of
charge, namely cash wagf. In this concept, Nadzir (cash waqf fund
manager) collects the fund from Wagqif (cash waqf payer) and invest
the money in the real sector and in any syariah-based investment
opportunities. Nadzir could allocate profits and returns gained from
the investments to poverty alleviation programs. Nadzir is obliged to
maintain the amount of fund in such a way that it does not go below
the initial amount. Therefore, Nadzir not only should be highly
capable, but also needs an experienced financial institution in helping
SMEs development efforts. Using the system dynamics methodology,
we tries to know the structure of cash waqf system and simulate the
behaviour of cash waqf model.

The Dynamics of Hospital Medication Errors:
A Systems Simulator Testbed for Patient
Safety Interventions

Medication errors in hospitals are a large and increasing problem,
which has traditionally been considered a result of human error.
Recent attempts to reduce errors have emphasised systems approaches
and improvements in information and communications technologies
(ICT). As part of a multi-method evaluation project for hospital point
of care clinical systems, we assembled a team of professionals from a
variety of clinical, information management, health management,
sociology, linguistics and engineering backgrounds. We built a
systems simulation for explicitly representing the interactions among
the key determinants of medication errors. These included the
complex interactions of patients and staff, information, medications,
work practices and the infrastructure and policies within a hospital
environment. Our team simulated hospital inpatient and staff flow,
generation and interception of medication errors, and the potential
impacts of ICT-enabled work practice changes. This paper describes
the System Dynamics Model of long-term context that produces errors
in the medication management process. Future extensions include the
use of a combined agent based and SD simulation to produce a multi-
method, multi-level systems simulation testbed as an integrating
framework for evaluating combinations of improvement interventions.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 109
Nicholas McKenna
nickmck@mit.edu

MIT

199 Massachusetts Ave Apt # 1012
Boston MA 02115

USA

Alan Charles McLucas
a.mclucas@adfa.edu.au

Australian Defence Force Academy
UNSW School of Aerospace Civ &
Mec Eng

Northcott Drive

Campbell ACT 2600 Australia

Michael J. Ryan
mj.ryan@adfa.edu.au

University of New South Wales
Australian Defence Force Academy
Northcott Drive

Campbell ACT 2600 Australia

Alexandra Medina-Borja
nmedina@vt.edu

American Red Cross

2507 Fowler Street

Falls Church VA 22046

USA

Executing Major Projects through Contractors

Project based organizational structures are utilized in many industries.
The firms engaged in these endeavors, project sponsor and contractor
alike, risk both capital and reputation in the market-place with each
new project. The relationship between project sponsor and contractor
influences the outcome of the project to a significant extent. Complex
and challenging projects are made more so by the adversarial
relationships that frequently exist between the sponsor and
contractor(s). This paper presents a model for examining the influence
of the contractor/sponsor relationship on the execution of a project.
The focus is on the effects of the relationship, as determined by the
financial performance of the engaged firms and key project
performance indicators (schedule, budget etc), on the degree to which
the firms engage and the impact this has on project performance.
Analysis of the model indicates the importance of appreciating the
project’s need for effective team integration in determining the
financial arrangements.

Meeting Critical Real-World Challenges in
Modelling Complexity: What System
Dynamics Modelling Might Learn From
Systems Enginee

System dynamics is still evolving. This paper argues additional rigour
is needed if system dynamics is to achieve its full potential in helping
us understand complex behaviour of human activity systems. It argues
that a detailed appreciation of how systems engineers define, analyse,
specify, manufacture, operate and support complex systems could
inform the evolution of system dynamics even though there are
significant differences between the two disciplines. The proffered
approach integrates systems thinking, system dynamics modelling and
systems engineering. This integrated approach enables group model
building and building of exceedingly complex models through top-
down design and careful management of the complexity introduced at
each stage of the model-building process. The approach promises to
engender greater confidence that models developed using it work and
are both necessary and sufficient representations of the real world.
The greatest potential gain accruing from application of this
methodology is enhanced acceptance of system dynamics.

Uncovering Relationships in System Dynamics
Modeling Using CART/CHAID/SEM
One of the premises of system dynamics is that the modeler would

make relationship assumptions with enough precision to make the
model useful. A common validation method is to consult with field

110 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Kalyan Pasupathy
kalyan@vt.edu

Virginia Tech

1741 N Troy Street #426
Arlington VA 22201
USA

Arif Mehmood
mehmood@delsys.ca

Delsys Research Group Inc
45 Rideau Street Suite 400
Ottawa ON KIN 5W8
Canada

Arif Mehmood
mehmood@delsys.ca

Delsys Research Group Inc
45 Rideau Street Suite 400
Ottawa ON KIN 5W8
Canada

experts. But with the advent of the internet and automated data
collection methods, knowledge is diluted, as companies store
abundant information without time to process it. Customers’ dislikes,
perceptions, intentions, opinions, and service characteristics reside in
data warehouses (e.g. survey data is stored as categorical, nominal,
ordinal or qualitative without further analysis). Without experts,
companies are data rich but not necessarily knowledge rich. We
present an application of known nonparametric _ predictive
methodologies to uncover/confirm significant variable relationships
and build the equations to feed the model: Classification and
Regression Trees (CART), Chi-Square Automated Interactive
Deduction (CHAID) and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). A
developing application of CHAID/SEM to explore restructuring
decisions in a large service organization will be briefly discussed.

A Prototype Model to Understand the
Implications of Interventions to Reduce
Deceptive Advertising in a Marketplace

Deceptive Advertising (misrepresentation of price or quality) of
products has been rampant over the last decades. The increase in such
activities is a growing concern for consumer protection agencies as
they are subject to limited resources to monitor and prosecute the
retailers who adopt deceptive advertising as a marketing strategy. This
paper describes a prototype model that addresses the problem of
deceptive advertising in the consumer marketplace. The simulation
model integrates consumer purchasing behaviour, the behaviour of
retailers who adopt and who do not adopt the deceptive advertising,
and the behaviour of consumer protection agencies for law
enforcement and compliance- promotion strategies. The preliminary
results of a few simulation scenarios are discussed.

Modeling Framework for Understanding the
Dynamics of Learning Performance in
Education Systems

Both developing and developed countries allocate a substantial
amount of their budgets to their education sectors in an attempt to
improve the learning performance of the students at each stage in the
education system. The stages in the education system are typically
conceived as being: Early Childhood (EC), Elementary to Secondary
School (K-12), and Post Secondary Education (PSE). Each of these
stages requires attention to address its unique problems, particularly
when each stage is viewed as a separate, isolated component. This
paper presents a modeling framework that integrates the stages of the
education system into a one complete system to evaluate the
implications of success in one stage to other stages. This paper
illustrates that in designing effective and robust strategies to improve
learning performance, it is necessary to fully understand how the
problems of one stage evolve over time and if not fixed, could

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 111
Esther Menezes
esther@cpqd.com.br

Fundagao CPqD

Rod Campinas Mogi-Mirim km 118
5 sin

CEP 13083-970

Campinas SP Brasil

Cristiane Ogushi

Fundagao CPqD
Rod Campinas Mogi-Mirim km 118
5 sin

CEP 13083-970

Campinas SP Brasil

Graziella C. Bonadia
bonadia@epqd.com.br
Fundagio CPqD

Rod. Campinas-Mogi Mirim
Km 1185

CEP 13083-970 Campinas SP
Brasil

Juliano Dall'Antonia
juliano@cpqd.com.br

Fundagio CPqD

Rodovia SP 340 km 118
Campinas SP CEP 13086-902
Brazil

Sara Metcalf

ssm@uiuc.edu
Univ of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Dept of Geography Rm 220
Davenport

607 South Mathews Avenue
Urbana IL 61801-3671

USA

Mark Paich

m paich@att.net

Decisio Consulting Inc
201 Linden Street 3202
Fort Collins CO 80524
USA

generate or intensify the problems in other stages. This research helps
in understanding “where and why” to focus education system reform
efforts in order to improve the performance of the students throughout
all stages of the education system.

Socioeconomic Factors Influencing Digital TV
Diffusion in Brazil

The aim of this paper is to present an analysis of the socioeconomic
factors which may affect the terrestrial Digital TV diffusion in Brazil.
Such an ex ante analysis is supported by system dynamics models that
represent non-linear relations influencing users’ interest for this new
media. The model inputs are derived from market surveys which
reflect users’ demand and expectations for Digital TV services. The
basic model evaluates penetration of terrestrial digital TV according
to the number of households with Digital TV receiver. Although the
proposed simulation model is based on Bass diffusion model, other
factors influencing diffusion of digital TV were implemented, due to
deployment alternatives and Brazilian socioeconomic conditions,
specifically the disposable income per socioeconomic class.
Furthermore, it is shown how this and other conditional variables,
such as attractiveness of new services, might affect digital receiver
adoption in the Brazilian society.

Giovanni M. de Holanda
giovanni@cpqd.com.br
Fundagao CPqD

SP 340 Km 118.5

CEP 13086-902 Campinas SP
Brasil

Spatial Dynamics of Social Network Evolution

Even in the absence of population growth, many communities
continue to experience urban sprawl, or low-density fringe
development. Motivated by the example of post-industrial dynamics
in a small Illinois town, this paper explores the problem of
fragmenting social networks enabled by spatial distancing between
distinct socioeconomic classes. Increased fragmentation becomes a
concern for community efficacy in establishing new economic
opportunities and for potential sources of conflict between sub-
communities. This paper develops a framework for considering the
spatial dynamics of social network evolution in the face of
neighborhood and community migration. The social network is
initialized using a small world formulation (Watts 1999) that then
evolves as migration patterns affect the probability of "rewiring"
social connections. Spatially, some connections are established for
neighborhood proximity. Socially, connections are added based upon
similarity of economic class. In effect, the probability of rewiring
becomes endogenous as the social network evolves over time. A
variety of analyses are conducted with migration probabilities under
this endogenous rewiring to explore the relative cohesiveness of the
emergent community networks. The development of this abstract

112. 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 ~ 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Grischa Meyer
grischa.meyer@gmx.de
Volkswagen AG
Letterbox 1882
38436 Wolfsburg
Germany

Marcus Schroeter
marcus.schroeter@tu-bs.de
Technical University of
Braunschweig

Dept of Production Management
Katharinenstr 3

D-38106 Braunschweig
Germany

Thomas Spengler
tspengler@tu-bs.de

Technical University of
Braunschweig

Inst for Economics and Business
Admin

Dept of Production Management
38106 Braunschweig

Germany

Stanislava Mildeova
mildeova@vse.cz

University of Economics in Prague
nam W Churchilla 4

Praha 3 130 67

Czech Republic

Viktor Vojtko
v.vojtko@proverbs.cz
Proverbs

Zitna 52

120 00 Prague 2
Czech Republic

model is discussed in relation to further application and calibration to
a real-world case community. Watts, Duncan J. 1999. Small Worlds:
The Dynamics of Networks Between Order and Randomness.
Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Modelling and Evaluation of Car-Related
Taxes in Japan

In Japan, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions in transport sector
increased significantly and assuming past increase rates in the future,
emission level in transportation sector is expected to rapidly increase.
A variety of environmental policies are under debate in Japan,
especially tax reduction schemes. As a consequence of ‘green’ tax
incentives, changes in the composition of vehicle fleet can be
observed and anticipated. For European Automotive Manufacturers in
particular, these transportation and environmental conditions are hard
to understand and even harder to influence. However, there are
different alternatives to cope with these challenges, e.g. reactive or
proactive strategies. As a proactive strategy, a concept for modeling,
evaluation and forecasting of environmental regulations is developed
in this contribution.

Results of First Steps in Applications of System
Dynamics Principles at the University of
Economics in Prague, Czech Republic

The authors will attempt to overview domestic experience of using the
system dynamics models in various fields, mainly with respect to
practical use of simulations for management decision-making support.
This paper will present management flight simulators created at
University of Economics in Prague. Theoretic background of these
simulators comes from the methodology of system dynamics and
systems thinking. These simulators are considered to be tools that
would help to understand dynamic relations in an organization as a
whole. The authors will show two ways for their simulator
development. One is situated in enabling the students as future
managers to build their own dynamic problem-solving oriented
models. The authors call the simulators prepared in this way
“transparent boxes”. In this case advanced users can change virtually
everything in the simulator and test the consequences. The other way
is to aim to learn some crucial principles of systems thinking and
system dynamics using the simulators in a very short time. These
simulators called “black boxes” have user interface, which contains
the vital information, but the end users cannot change the model
structure. This paper is supported by Czech Science Foundation
within grant project “System Dynamics Theory And Market
Structures”, number GACR 402/05/0502.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 113
Pratap K. J. Mohapatra
pratap@hijli.iithgp.ernet.in

Indian Institute of Technology
Industrial Engineering and Mgt
Kharagpur 721302

India

René Molkenthin
rene.molkenthin@uni-mainz.de
Johannes-Gutenberg-University of
Mainz

Jakob Welder-Weg 9

55128 Mainz

Germany

Edoardo Mollona
emollona@cs.unibo.it

Universita degli Studi di Bologna
Department of Computer Science
Mura Anteo Zamboni 7

40127 Bologna Italy

Control Strategies for an Activated Sludge
Treatment System

The activated sludge treatment system for treating municipal
wastewater presents an interesting application of system dynamics
modeling. This paper presents such a modeling approach to the
strategy formulation of the treatment system in order to economically
control effluent quality. First, factorial designs are carried out on the
simulation results to identify factors that significantly affect effluent
quality. Thereafter, open-loop control (both constant and time-
varying), output feedback control, and output-integrated feedback
control strategies have been applied. Statistical tests of significance
indicate that the strategy of output feedback control has the maximum
potential, in both summer and winter, to achieve the dual objectives of
maintaining effluent quality within acceptable limits and minimizing
aerator energy.

Real Time Diagnostics of Problem-Solving
Behavior for System Dynamics-Based Business
Simulations

Business simulations are composed of a (SD-)model which represents
the complexity and dynamics of business structures and concepts.
Within a simulation the participants can make decisions to control the
modeled enterprise. A business simulation can make the
interdependencies between the different activities within an enterprise
transparent to the participants. From an economical perspective the
success within a business simulation can be measured by a set of
specific core variables. From an educational perspective the structure
of the cognitive system which is responsible for the economical
success is relevant. A subsequent aspect refers to the possibilities to
support the elaboration of the mental model during the activities
within a business simulation. Furthermore in the context of web-based
learning environments there is the issue how to foster self-regulated
learning processes. A prerequisite for an effective feedback which
supports learning is a continuous diagnosis of the problem solving
process, in particular the diagnosis of the information-retrieval and
decision-making processes. This paper describes the basic concept of
the diagnostics within a prototype of a web-based business simulation
called solarSYDUS. Besides the SD-model this simulation contains a
component for recording information-retrieval and decision-making
processes during the simulation for analyzing problem solving
behavior.

Revisiting the Theory of Intra-Organizational
Ecology and Organizational Change: A System
Dynamics Approach

I develop a System Dynamics simulation model to examine the
conditions under which large firms adapt to sharp changes in the

114 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
John D. W. Morecroft

jmorecrofi@london.edu
London Business School
Regent's Park

London NWI 4SA

UK

Stewart Robinson
stewart.robinson@warwick.ac.uk
University of Warwick
Warwick Business School
Coventry CV4 7AL

UK

Don R. Morris

donr.morris@worldnet.att.net
Miami-Dade County Public Schools
5838 SW 74th Terrace #303

South Miami FL 33143

USA

competitive landscape. This paper capitalizes on, and aims to extend
the intra-organizational ecological theory of organizational adaptation,
which reconciles the workings of selection and adaptation forces in
the process of organizational change. The paper interprets the
narrative theory from the feedback perspective, translates it into a
system dynamics model, and simulates the model under different
assumptions of firm characteristics. More specifically, I
experimentally reproduce in vitro a firm’s adaptation process to
closely scrutinize how the morphology of firm’s resource allocation
mechanisms interacts with stocks of available resources to mould an
unfolding adaptation path. The simulation experiments unveil the role
of timing, path-dependence and self-reinforcing mechanisms in
decision-making.

Explaining Puzzling Dynamics: Comparing the
Use of System Dynamics and Discrete-Event
Simulation

Both system dynamics (SD) and discrete-event simulation (DES) are
used to help understand and explain puzzling real world dynamics.
But what are the similarities and differences between these two
approaches and which should be used in a specific circumstance?
These are questions few have ventured to answer. In this research the
two approaches are compared by developing an SD and DES model of
the same problem situation, a fishery. An SD expert and a DES expert
separately develop a model of the fishery through a number of
evolutionary steps. At each step differences in the representation and
interpretation of the models are identified. Overall it is apparent that
while SD illuminates ‘deterministic complexity’, DES illuminates
‘constrained randomness’. Either or both may be important in
understanding and explaining puzzling dynamics. SD and DES should
therefore be seen not as opposing modelling approaches, but as
complementary.

Causal Inference in the Social Sciences:
Variance Theory, Process Theory, and System
Dynamics

The social sciences are in need of an alternative to the variance
approach to causal inference, which—because it requires a
counterfactual—restricts the claim of valid inference to conclusions
drawn from experimental and quasi-experimental methods. Process
theory proposes an alternative by way of demonstrating the presence
of observable characteristics of the causal mechanism, a method that,
while accepted in principle, has proven elusive in practice. It is
suggested that system dynamics can improve the process approach,
and in so doing open a path for itself to wider application in the social
sciences. Educational research is suggested as a place to start, and
results from two models drawn on topics from that field are offered as
examples.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 115
J. Bradley Morrison
bmorriso@brandeis.edu
Brandeis University

19 Fox Run Road

Bedford MA 01730

USA

Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen

System Dynamics Gp Dept of
Geography

Postbox 7800

N-5020 Bergen Norway

Arne Krakenes
arne.kraakenes@powersim.no
Powersim

Sandbrugaten 5-7 Postboks 3961
Dreggen N-5835 Bergen
Norway

Rodney S. Myers
rodney.myers@navy.mil

US Navy Personnel Command
Personnel Research Dept
5720 Integrity Drive
Millington TN 38055 USA

Implementation as Learning: An Extension of
Learning Curve Theory

Firms often attempt to imitate successful practices of other firms.
When implementing new practices, individuals in organizations learn
new ways of doing things, develop new skills, and adopt new
organizational routines. In the paper, we view implementation as a
learning process and apply learning curve theory to the understanding
of implementation dynamics. We extend classic learning curve to
include a required output level for an individual who must choose
between an old and a new way to achieve the output. Doing work the
new way builds experience, increasing productivity and thus favoring
continued use of the new skill, but this reinforcing process works to
favor the new skill only at relatively high levels of productivity.
Otherwise, the same process is a vicious cycle, driving out the new
skill, We use a system dynamics model to demonstrate a mode of
behavior in which learning begins and then stalls and another mode in
which the new skill becomes the preferred one. We identify the
tipping point between these two modes and characterize the transition
problem: Learning by doing is a dynamic process, a transition from
use of an old way to a new way that requires accumulating experience
beyond a threshold.

SOPS — A Tool to Find Optimal Policies in
Stochastic Dynamic Systems

The task of finding optimal policies in stochastic dynamic systems is
challenging. The theory of stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) is
quite complex and the available software packages are not intended
for non-specialists. Furthermore, SDP is traditionally limited to quite
small and well defined problems. Stochastic optimization in policy
space (SOPS) seems to be an attractive alternative, particularly for
people with a background in simulation of dynamic systems.
However, to date no user friendly software has been available for this
method. In this paper we present and demonstrate a new program
package for this task. The resulting software allows the user to
formulate the model in a well-known simulation program, Powersim
Studio 2005. The model is automatically transferred to a standalone
program. The SOPS program allows the user to reset model
parameters, to specify search criteria, and to study the results of
repeated searches for optimal policies. To maximise speed, Monte
Carlo simulations utilise C+ code.

Navy Personnel Enterpise Model — A System
Dynamics Approach

An enterprise model is a computational representation of the structure,
activities, processes, information, resources, people, behavior, goals,
and constraints of an organization. It can be both descriptive and
definitional—spanning the “as-is” and/or the “to-be.” The role of an

116 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Xiaowen Ni
nxwmjznwg@yahoo.com.cn
Nanjing Normal University
High School

37 Chahaer Road

Nanjing

China

Yuqin Yao

Nanjing Normal University
High School

37 Chahaer Road

Nanjing

China

Xiaoqian Ning
dr_lizhigang@hotmail.com
Tonji Development Institute

Qifan Wang
gfwang@fudan.edu.en
Fudan University
School of Management
220 Han Dan Road
200433 Shanghai
China

Bing Wu
info@suntek.info

Tongji University

LongGaolu 88 JiuTing Songjiang

Shanghai 201615
China

Patricia Ochoa
patricia.ochoa@unil.ch

HEC - Université de Lausanne
BFSHI

CH1015 Lausanne
Switzerland

enterprise model is to achieve model-driven enterprise design,
analysis, and operation. Of particular concern is an analyst’s ability to
determine the impact of changes, and/or proposed changes, on each
functional component of the enterprise. For example, how would
relaxing recruiting standards affect the quality of Sailors throughout
the enterprise? What is the attrition impact to the fleet if we shorten or
expand time in the delayed entry program? Upon successful
completion, analysts and/or decision-makers will receive an
interactive analysis system to facilitate strategic planning. The system
will allow component managers to explore the impact that functional
policy and resource decisions have across the entire personnel
enterprise. The goal is to create a more effective personnel
environment through strategic evaluations of potential futures.

System Dynamics in Development and
Management of Traveling Resources

Abstract: By means of system thinking, the issues of traveling
resources, traveling condition and finance in tourism business as well
as the interrelations among them were analyzed to search the effective
approach to the prosperity of tourism business. The software STELLA
is used to build the operation model of tourism business, including the
modules of ticket price, the payment of loans and the development
and demolishment of resources in order to find out an efficient way to
prosper the tourism industry while protecting the environment. There's
no real data for it's just a student's exercise. It mainly analyzes the
genegal idea, and every related aspects. Also, its purpose is to show
the importance of system thinking in high school students’ studies.

The Influence of Schedule Targets on Project
Performance

Many organizations set ambitious schedules for their product
development projects to gain competitive advantages. However,
ambitious schedules might be the main factor to deteriorate project
performance. The features of system dynamics application in project
management is discussed and a generic simulation model is built for
studying the effects of schedule pressure and providing a helpful tool
for project management to understand feedbacks, delays and nonlinear
relationships among projects and how project behaviors are driven by
project structures. Finally, the future works about this study are
discussed.

Policy Changes in the Swiss Electricity
Market: A System Dynamics Analysis of
Likely Market Responses

The Swiss electricity market - as well as the European electricity
markets, is now facing a period of fundamental structural changes.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 117
Camilo Olaya
colaya@uniandes.edu.co
University of St Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 40a

9000 St Gallen Switzerland

Rogelio Oliva
roliva@tamu.edu

Texas A&M University

Mays Business School

325M Wehner - 4217

College Station TX 77843-4217
USA

Paulo Gongalves
paulog@miami.edu
University of Miami
KE 404

Coral Gables FL 33124
USA

Emergent liberalisation is taking place, and nuclear dismantling is
being debated. Given this scenario, it is important to evaluate market
response to those changes in terms of security of supply and the
viability of international exchanges - imports and exports of electricity
from and to neighbouring countries. The approach we adopt to
analyse various aspects of security of supply in Switzerland differs
from the traditional economic methodology which focuses on
equilibrium of outcomes as opposed to on how the new situation is
reached. We use system dynamics simulation models, which
incorporate information feedback and behavioural policies, to study
scenarios of the transient period currently faced by the Swiss
electricity market.

The Significance of Addressing System
Dynamics Explanations

In a previous work the philosophical concept of Mechanism was
proposed in order to characterize the kind of scientific explanations
provided by the system dynamics approach. That earlier paper
positioned such idea epistemologically contrasting it with the
traditional view used by mainstream management research and
developed a different ontological ground based on the structuralist
approach of Bertrand Russell. However, it seems to be needed an
emphasis on the epistemological nature of the Mechanism thesis
because of its common association with reductionism and the view of
mechanistic thinking as supposedly opposed to holism and
emergentism. This paper constitutes a second part; it underlines the
epistemic status of Mechanism which explains why it is in no way
opposed to ideas like holism or emergentism, on the contrary it is
consistent with such worldviews. Based on this condition the paper
explores the repercussions of such characterization for philosophy of
science and for system dynamics by developing a research agenda for
both fields around this topic.

Behavioral Causes of Demand Amplification in
Sypply Chains: 'Satisficing' Policies with
Limited Information Cues

Overreaction to supply shortages can create havoc in supply chains,
costing millions of dollars in excess inventory and manufacturing
capacity. In an experiment with the Beer Distribution Game, we
explore overreaction to shortages as a complementary behavioral
cause of supply chain instability. As in previous studies, we find that
players ignore the supply line. We find, however, that instead of
overreacting to shortages, players limit the size of their order
adjustment while aiming for higher than necessary inventory level; a
policy that is more stable than the linear response suggested in
previous studies. Since an ordering rule that fails to account for the
supply line leads to higher than necessary costs and order
amplification, our results suggest that players are not fully rational.
However, evaluating the performance of the estimated policy we find

118 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
that, given the information cues available, players show bounded
rationality and develop a “satisficing” replenishment decision rule that
minimizes local cost at the expense of higher upstream cost. We
explore the implications of these findings for the design of
information and incentive systems for supply chain management.

Nathaniel Osgood Combining System Dynamics and Decision
nosgood@mit.edu . . .

Mr Analysis for Rapid Strategy Selection

77 Massachusetts Ave Rm 1-376

Cambridge MA 02139 An important class of decision problems involve the selection of a
USA policy in the presence of both uncertainty regarding future

eventualities and a system exhibiting complex policy response. Within
this paper, we examine the performance benefits of performing
strategy selection for such problems using a hybrid modeling
approach that combines decision analysis and system dynamics.
Within this approach, a modeler uses a decision tree to encapsulate
choices, uncertainties, and consequences (the last computed by a
system dynamics model). While this hybrid technique offers many
additional advantages in terms of exp veness and the
encouragment of systematic investigation of policy space, this paper
focuses on the performance gains it provides. In particular, the use of
decision trees to represent such decision problems permits the use of
dynamic programming, which can dramatically decrease the costs of
identifying a preferred policy beyond what is possible by evaluating
possible policies in turn. The paper quantifies these performance
advantages by means of recurrence relations for arbitrary trees, and
derives inductively proven closed-form expressions of performance
gain for complete trees. The results suggest that the hybrid method
yields speedups exponential in the depth of the tree for both complete
and randomly generated trees.

Peter A. Otto Growing Ownership and Instilling Confidence
@dow! “dt soe

Hou tie Cole for a Decision Support Approach at the

School of Business Stakeholder Level

150 Idle Hour Boulevard

Oakdale NY 11769 .
In a globally operating company, when a country management team

USA base their opposition to the global product marketing strategy on a
Martin Simon System Dynamics simulation tool, the model is definitely to support
sim@bluewin.ch communication across the management layers in a bottom-up way. To
ipgroup reach out to stakeholders and global management at the HQ, neither of

Ruetistrasse 4
CH-8126 Zumikon
Switzerland

them being familiar with the System Dynamics approach, it’s not
sufficient to provide a technically convincing simulation tool. This
paper describes a bottom-up model building initiative and its vital
educational component. Building the model with the client had to both
grow ownership at the country level, overcome "black-box" attitudes
and establish a shared understanding for the approach at the
stakeholder level in order to structure the discussion about critical
issues beyond trailing market dynamics or covering up by fanciful
statistics. Keywords: Black box, Stakeholder, Ownership.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 119
Martsin P. Papadatos
mpp26@cam.ac.uk

University of Cambridge
Wolfson College

Barton Road

Cambridge, CB3 9BB

UK

George Dikos
gdikos@alum.mit.edu
Eugenides Group

PO Box 65582

Athens Neo Psychiko 15402
Greece

Henry S. Marcus
hsmare:
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology

@mit.edu

Vassilis Papakonstantinou
vpap@alum.mit.edu
Eugenides Group

Hun-Joon Park
hjpark@
Yonsei University

School of Business

134 Shinchon-dong Seodaemoon-ku
Seoul 120-749

South Korea

Sang-Joon Kim
skgkriod@freechal.com

Yonsei University

134 Shinchon-dong Seodaemun-gu
120 749 Seoul

South Korea

Najung Kim
najung@yonsei.ac.kr

Yonsei University

134 Shinchondong Seodaemungu
Seoul

Korea

Sang-Hyun Park
alraview@infovil.co.kr

Electronics and Telecom Research
Inst

1-262 ETRI

161 Gajong-Dong Yusung-Gu
Daejon

Republic of Korea 305-350

Inverse System Dynamics in Competitive
Economic Modelling: The Case of Tanker
Freight Rates

A system identification approach is used in order to model and
identify the structural relationship between freight rates in the tanker
industry and a set of exogenous inputs. Our motivation results from
the limited data availability and the prohibitive theoretical complexity
of economic models for the evaluation of managerial decisions and
risk management. The combination of statistical analysis and
economic insight leads to an innovative multidisciplinary approach for
modelling competitive economic systems. We calibrate the model
with real data from 1980-2002, achieve estimation and identification
of the system and fully track the directional changes in freight rates.
After conducting performance evaluation an innovative hybrid model
is introduced and system performance is maximized both within and
out-of-sample. Finally we discuss potential uses of this model for
policy analysis, managerial investment decisions and_ risk
management.

From Discount to Premium: An Integrative
Transparency System for Corporate
Sustainability

This paper examines a new approach to understanding corporate
transparency (or, in reverse, opacity) system, which is used to
recognize interconnections existing among firm-related agents — how
they sanction and monitor each other’s behaviors, ultimately tuning
the activity of a firm in a systematic context. Firm-related agents
include internal stakeholders (especially board of directors) and
external stakeholders. While former approach individually can only
examine corporate transparency/opacity in a one-sided way, we
attempted to take on a more holistic and dynamic view using system
dynamics. With our new integrative model, we propose a systematic
solution to corporate transparency/opacity problems and provide a
new means of studying corporate value more transparently than ever
before, thus offering a better chance of corporate sustainability and
also enhancing corporate value.

The Dynamic Effects of Government Policies
on Korean Telecommunication Services
Market Focusing on the Regulations of Mobile
Phones

The government regulation policy, in the mobile phone services
market which is characterized by its ‘asymmetric’ stance, has been
provoked debates on many issues amid pros and cons. For that, many
previous studies have endeavored to point out the limitations of
asymmetric regulations and suggested the improving measure tools,

120 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Seung-Jun Yeon
naege@infovil.co.kr

Electronics and Telecom Research
Inst

161 Gaejeong-dong Yuseong-Gu
Daejeon 305-350 South Korea

Sang-Wook Kim
sierra@chunghuk.ac.kr

Chungbuk National University
Dept of Management Information
Systems

48 Gaesin-dong Heungdeok-gu
Chong-ju Chungbuk 361-763 S
Korea

Jamshid Parvizian
jparvizian@gmail.com
Goethe Institut
Sonnenstrasse 25

80331 Munich

Germany

Jamshid Parvizian
jparvizian@gmail.com
Goethe Institut
Sonnenstrasse 25

80331 Munich

Germany

most of previous studies showed common shortcomings. This study
aimed at evaluating the government regulation policies over mobile
phone market, by analyzing in advance the efficacy of any potential
regulation policies, and by estimating the timeliness of the
enforcement. To achieve this objective, a simulation model based on
the system dynamics methodology was developed to test the impact of
governmental regulation policies being enforced under various
scenarios of the mix of government policies.

Won-Gyu Ha

wgha@etri.re.kr

Electronics and Telecom Research Inst
161 Gajeong-dong Yuseong-gu
Daejeon 305-350

South Korea

Doahoon Kim
dhkim@sookmyung.ac.kr
Sookmyung Woman's University
53-12 Chungpa Dong 2 Ga
Yongsan Ku Seoul 140-742
South Korea

Adaptive Socio-Economic System Dynamics

In this paper, we propose an adaptive method for the proper policy-
making in socio-economic dynamic systems. This method is based on
the adaptive control theory that has been developed and used in many
electro-mechanical systems for several decades. The control
parameters are modified on-line with the dynamic changes of the
system in the way that the behavior of the system would remain under
control in different conditions. By using an adaptive method the
system would overcome the unpredictable environment changes. An
inventory control system as one of the most common models in
system dynamic is used as an example. The suggested method is
implemented and the results are compared with the conventional
feedback system.

Oil Revenue and the Sustainable Development
of Iran: A System Dynamics Approach

Development and growth of Iranian economy upon the oil revenue
encountered two basic problems. First, the efficiency of investment of
the revenue in the main economic streams has been very low so far.
Second, the dependency of the economy on imports financed by oil
revenue has been constantly increasing. However, the country cannot
continue to export oil in near future due to the increasing domestic
demand on one hand and the run out of the resources on the other
hand. Therefore, oil revenue will be soon expired and the country may
face severe economic and social problems. Lack of exchange revenue
makes the manufacturing capacity inefficient. In this paper, a dynamic
system model is developed to analyze the effects and roles of oil
revenue and government investment policies on various sectors of the
economy, with regards to economic indicators. In the base simulation,
results show that if the economic conditions of Iran continue as they
are, when the oil revenue becomes less available in near future, the
economy faces a severe stagnancy in the activities of all sectors. In
order to access stationary economic development, the government can

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 121
Oleg V. Pavlov
opavlov@wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd

Worcester MA 01609

USA

Nigel Melville
Boston College

Robert Plice
San Diego State University

Gloria Pérez Salazar
gloria.perez@itesm.mx

Tecnologico de Monterrey

Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
Av E Garza Sada 2501 Sur

64849 Monterrey NL

Mexico

Irving Arellano
400628497 @itesm.mx

Tania Fierro
400945404 @itesm.mx

Morales Gabriela
400785927 @itesm.mx

Carlos Sanchez
400786098@itesm.mx

Gloria Pérez Salazar
gloria.perez@itesm.mx

Tecnologico de Monterrey

Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
Av E Garza Sada 2501 Sur

64849 Monterrey NL

Mexico

use foreign exchange reserve account, reduce the dependency on oil
revenue by imposing restrictions on oil production, and support the
domestic productions.

Unsolicited Commercial Email: An Attention
Resource Perspective

The growth of unsolicited commercial email (UCE) imposes
increasing costs on organizations and causes considerable aggravation
on the part of email recipients. A thriving anti-spam industry
addresses some of the frustration. This paper contributes to our
understanding of the UCE phenomenon by drawing on scholarly work
in areas of marketing and resource ownership and use. Adapting the
tragedy of the commons to the email context, we identify a causal
structure that drives the direct e-marketing industry. Computer
simulations indicate that although filtering may be an effective
method to curb UCE arriving at individual inboxes, it is likely to
increase the aggregate volume, thereby boosting overall costs. The
analysis advances understanding of the digital commons, the
economics of UCE, and has practical implications for the direct e-
marketing industry.

Modeling the Development of a
Biotechnological Cluster

Worldwide competition is evolutionary and dynamic; therefore it is
necessary that countries not only think in terms of immediate cost but
that they foment the necessary conditions under which their
companies or new companies can develop competitive advantages
based on the innovation. According to this, it is important that
countries like México foment the creation and the development of
new industries in the biotechnological cluster, in order to develop new
areas in which we could be competitive. This paper is about the
design of a model that could help us to evaluate de viability of the
development of a biotechnology cluster in Mexico. Keywords:
biotechnology, cluster development, Innovation.

System Dynamics Projects Presented by
Poster: Product and Process Synthesis

The purpose of this work is to share the experience using a Poster
presentation of projects in System Dynamic (SD). The paper focus in
how this didactic resource has been a helpful tool supporting the
didactics of SD methodology (process) and at the same time a great
resource to share with the students the entire project made by each of
the class teams (product). Key words: Poster, systems dynamics,
Project Oriented Learning.

122. 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
P. Jeffrey Potash
jpotash(@ciesd.org

CIESD LLP

75 Green Mountain Drive
South Burlington VT 05403
USA

John F. Heinbokel
jheinbokel@ciesd.org

CIESD LLP

75 Green Mountain Drive
South Burlington VT 05403
USA

Marsha J. Price

marshaprice@earthlink.net
Upstartiae Projects

79 Myrtle Street #5
Boston MA 02114

USA

Thomas G. Kelly
tom.kelly@paconsulting.com

PA Consulting Group

One Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

Hassan Qudrat-Ullah
hassang@yorku.ca

York University

School of Administrative Studies
4700 Keele Street Atkinson 282
Toronto ONT M3J 1P3

Canada

Unleashing the Revolutionary Implications of a
System Dynamics 'Education'

As self-described “educators,” in our formal instruction of students
and teachers and our more recent outreach to a wider array of clients,
we have focused on systematically using the full range of system
dynamics tools to become, and assist our clients to become, better
thinkers and modelers. In a conscious effort to build that capacity
through collaborative problem solving, we have devised a “ladder of
engagement.” It is a structure and sequence of activities supporting a
powerful and integrated process by which continuously “better
questions” allow us to: (1) probe progressively more deeply into
describing the behavior of the system (a rung of KNOWLEDGE); (2)
identify the system’s features (feedback loops and delays) controlling
its behaviors (UNDERSTANDING); and (3) locate and evaluate
leverage points in the system where intervention can effectively and
efficiently affect its behavior (INFLUENCE). In addition to the
ladder's hierarchical structure, at each rung or level the process
explicitly incorporates feedbacks designed to develop an iterative
learning process that continually reinforces the linking of answers to
better questions and the parleying of one’s facility within a limited
sphere of interest into broader abilities and motivations to pursue
more diverse challenges and “enduring” and generic problems.

Boston Housing Dynamics, The Boom and Bust

Boston's residential real estate market has seen dramatic growth in
recent years. Prices have doubled and then doubled again. No one
knows how long this will last. Is it a "bubble"? If so, when will it
burst? Is it still safe to invest? Is it time to move? Fine questions for
owners and speculators--but the consequences of the continuing boom
are disastrous for those of lesser means working in Boston. Boston's
Mayor Menino has made his Affordable Housing initiative a top
priority. Understanding the dynamics driving the market and the
success or failure for these initiatives could be a key enabler of robust
public strategies. The dynamics displayed and described in this
session were developed on a pro bono basis working with Boston's
Department of Neighborhood Development at the request of Mayor
Menino. Extensions of this work with the Mayor's office and
additional housing agencies are underway.

Improving Dynamic Decision Making through
Debriefing: An Empirical Study

Empirical evidence suggests that people perform poorly in dynamic
tasks. The thesis of this article is that dynamic decision performance
can be improved by helping people to develop more accurate mental
models of the task stems through training with debriefing supported
computer simulation-based interactive learning environments

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 123
Timothy D. Quinn
tdquinn@mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-358A.
Cambridge MA 02139 USA.

Jenny W. Rudolph
jrudolph@bu.edu

Boston University Sch of Public
Health

Health Services Department
715 Albany Street

Boston MA 02118 USA

David G. Fairchild
dfairchild@tufis-neme.org

Tufts-New England Medical Center
General Medicine

750 Washington Street

Boston MA 02111 USA

Michael J. Radzicki
mjradz@wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Dept of Social Science and Policy
100 Institute Road

Worcester MA 01609-2280 USA

Oleg V. Pavlov
opavlov@upi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd

Worcester MA 01609 USA

Khalid Saeed

saced@wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies
Dept

100 Institute Road

Worcester MA 01609 USA

(CSBILEs). I report a laboratory experiment in which subjects
managed a dynamic task by playing the role of fishing fleet managers.
One group of participants used a CSBILE with debriefing, whereas
another group used the same CSBILE but without debriefing. A
comprehensive model consisting of four evaluation criteria is
developed and used: task performance, structural knowledge,
heuristics, and cognitive effort. It is found that debriefing was
effective on all four criteria; debriefing improves task performance,
helps the user learn more about the decision domain, develop
heuristics, and expend less cognitive effort in dynamic decision
making.

Lab Turnaround Time and Delayed
Discharges: A Systems-Based Action Research
Investigation

This paper reports an action research study in which we applied Edgar
Schein’s process consultation approach to a cross-functional problem
in a large academic teaching hospital. The project task force was
charged with investigating a hypothesized effect of poor lab
turnaround time on the risk of probable discharges being postponed
until the following day, thereby increasing average length of stay and
associated hospital operating costs. The tools we used at different
stages of our process included group facilitation, interviews, process
flowcharts, systems thinking with causal loop diagrams, and what-if
analysis with a system dynamics simulation model. Through
facilitation of the task force’s work, we were able to reorient each
constituent group’s perspective from a parochial to a systemic view,
greatly improving the task force’s functioning and chances for
successful sustainable improvement.

Stability in a Superpower-Dominated Global
Economic System

This paper provides an example of a system dynamics model that
incorporates soft variables. The model examines the challenges that a
superpower faces while maintaining its position in the global
economic system. The effects on aggregate welfare of the population
at home and abroad, as well as, issues of sustaining authority in the
long run are explored through experimentation with a computer
model. This theory is an extension of the framework developed by
Saeed(1990), which was used to understand political instability and
the failure of the government to stay committed to welfare agendas in
the developing countries. The present model captures the interaction
between several institutional actors involved with the economic and
the governance systems. They include the public, the authoritarian
regime, the reformist movements that seek change within the existing
framework, and the dissident movements that turn to violent methods.

124 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Hazhir Rahmandad
hazhir@mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-354A.
Cambridge MA 02139 USA.

R. Joel Rahn
jrahn@sympatico.ca

4636 Sugar Maple Drive
Ottawa ON KIV 1Y6
Canada

Boris Ramos
bramos@wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science and Policy Studies
100 Institute Road

Worcester MA 01609 USA

Khalid Saeed

saced@upi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies
100 Institute Road

Worcester MA 01609 USA

Oleg V. Pavlov
opavlov@upi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd

Worcester MA 01609 USA

Dynamics of Platform-Based Product
Development

Product development (PD) is a crucial capability for firms in
competitive markets. Building on case studies of software
development constructed from fieldwork at a large firm, this paper
explores the interaction among the different stages of the PD process,
the underlying architecture of the product, and the products in the
field. The study corroborates the dynamics of tipping into
“firefighting” (Repenning 2001) that follows quality-productivity
tradeoffs under pressure. Moreover, we introduce the concept of the
“adaptation trap,” where intendedly functional adaptation of workload
can overload the PD organization and force it into firefighting because
there is a delay in seeing the additional resource need from the field
and underlying code-base. Finally, the study highlights the importance
of architecture and underlying product-base in platform-based product
development, through their impact on quality of new models under
development, as well as resource requirements for bug-fixing. Put
together, these dynamics elucidate some of the reasons why PD
capability is hard to build and how it erodes. Consequently, we offer
hypotheses on the characteristics of the PD process that increase its
strategic significance and discuss some practical challenges in the face
of these dynamics.

F.E.A.R. & G.RE.E.D. — A Political Archetype

A novel archetype, abstracted from published work and supported by
anecdotal analogies is proposed. Its novelty is evidenced by a
comparison with the ‘Relative Control’ archetype from
Wolstenholme's classification. The significant difference is the
erasure of the system boundary from ‘Relative Control’. The effect is
to bring the dynamics entirely within the system thereby creating a
‘political’ archetype: a structure internalizing the struggle between two
opposed policies.

An Analysis of Wireless and Value-Added
Services on the Regional Dispersion of Telecom
Services in Developing Countries

Telecommunications in developing countries lack adequate planning
and policies, so their telephone densities show the lowest values
worldwide. The failure in considering the complexity of the regional
telecommunication system in developing policies and technological
strategies has increased the telecom gap between other regions and
this particular sector of the world. We used a system dynamics
modeling approach as a methodology that deals with the complexity
of the system in order to evaluate existing value added services and
access technologies in telecommunications that could accelerate the
dispersion of regional telephone services in developing countries. The
role of wireless systems, which have a low deployment delay, was
found to be crucial in the growth of urban and rural telecom

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 125
C. Michael Reilly
reillyem@comcast.net
HSMOAS

126 Harding Road Apt A
Red Bank NJ 07701-2010
USA

Eliot Rich

e.rich@albany.edu
University at Albany

Dept of Info Technology
Management

1400 Washington Avenue BA-310
Albany NY 12222

USA

Ignacio J. Martinez-Moyano
im7797@albany.edu

University at Albany

Milne 318 Rockefeller College
Albany NY 12222

USA

Stephen H. Conrad
shconra@sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1138
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA

infrastructure in developing countries. The value added services were
found to have a positive impact by increasing the financial resources
of the telecom company and the number of urban telephone lines.

An Exercise in Using System Dynamics to
Enrich the Scenario Simulations Used in
Another Research Paper

The December 4th, 2004 issue of “The Economist” had a 3-page
Special Report entitled “The future of the dollar” which cites the
following from the Roubini-Setser (R-S) paper ; “if the real trade-
weighted value of the dollar remains close to its average in 1990-2003
(slightly above current levels ) and there is no change in domestic
policy, America’s current-account deficit would rise to 8% of GDP in
2008 and its net debt would increase to over 50% of GDP”. This
projection came from one of three scenario simulations ( their
Baseline scenario ) based on a model described in the R-S paper. The
R-S paper’s model, when replicated in Vensim, contains one positive
feedback loop to represent how interest on debt leads to exponential
debt growth but excludes much of the of the paper’s rich mental
models which imply much more endogenous model structure than that
used in the paper’s scenario simulation model. This SD conference
paper recreates the R-S scenario simulation model and then presents
another version which tries to include more endogenous model
structure based on the R-S paper’s own rich discussion and mental
models.

Simulating Insider Cyber-Threat Risks: A
Model-Based Case and a Case-Based Model

The growing reliance on technological infrastructures has made
organizations increasingly vulnerable to threats from erstwhile trusted
employees and clients. Recent research indicates that successful
defense from these threats depends on both technical and behavioral
solutions. In this paper, we report on our work to identify seemingly
reasonable organizational actions that may inadvertently lead to
increased risk exposure. We also consider how potential internal
attackers may be encouraged or discouraged by monitoring the
organizational responses to probes of the firm’s security systems. Two
interwoven work products are presented: A case study that presents a
particular type of insider threat — long-term fraud — and a simulation
model that supports the case, the underlying dynamic theory, and
examination of policy options. The case and model combine to
produce a motivating and useful exercise that illustrates the problems
of insider cyber-threats. This material has been used in teaching of
insider threat issues with satisfactory results.

126 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Dawn M. Cappelli
dinc@cert.org

Carnegie Mellon University
Software Engineering Institute
4500 Fifth Avenue

Pittsburgh PA 15213-3890 USA

Andrew P. Moore
apm@certorg

Carnegie Mellon University
4500 Fifth Avenue
Pittsburgh PA 15213 USA

Timothy J. Shimeall
tis@cert.org

CERT Situational Awareness Team
Software Engineering Institute
4500 Fifth Avenue

Pittsburgh PA 15213-3890 USA

David F. Andersen
david.andersen@albany.edu
University at Albany
315A Milne Hall

135 Western Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA

Jose J. Gonzalez

jose,j. gonzalez@hia.no

Agder University College

Faculty of Engineering and Science
Grooseveien 36

NO-4876 Grimstad Norway

Donald Robadue
don@robadue.com

Coastal Resources Center
220 South Ferry Road
Narragansett RI 02882
USA

Robert J. Ellison
ellison@sei.cmu.edu

Carnegie Mellon University
CERT/CC Software Eng Institute
4500 Fifth Avenue

Pittsburgh PA 15213-2613 USA

Howard Lipson

hfl@certorg

Carnegie Mellon University
Software Engineering Institute
4500 Fifth Avenue

Pittsburgh PA 15213-3890 USA

David Mundie
dmundie@cert.org

Carnegie Mellon University
CERT/CC Software Eng Institute
4500 Fifth Avenue

Pittsburgh PA 15213-2613 USA

Jose Mari Sarriegi
imsarriegui@tecnun.es

Tecnun - University of Navarra
:CNUN

Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian Spain

Agata Sawicka
agata.sawicka@hia.no

Agder University College
Grooseveien 36

NO-4876 Grimstad Norway

Thomas R. Stewart
tstewart@albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Policy Research
Milne 300

Albany NY 12222 USA

José Manuel Torres
jmtorres@tecnun.es

TECNUN University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian Spain

Elise Axelrad Weaver
eweaver@wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Dept Social Science & Policy Studies
100 Institute Road

Worcester MA 01609-2280 USA

Johannes Wiik
johannes. wiik@hia.no
University of Bergen
Stromgaten 32

5008 Bergen Norway

Understanding the Dynamics of Coastal
Resources Management

System dynamics concepts and methods are rarely referenced in the
field of coastal resources management, even though coastal systems
and decision-making are dynamically complex and the SD literature
offers a rich and relevant body of theory, practice and models. Recent
work in the theory of ecosystem management calls for the use of
modeling and is becoming of increasing interest to coastal managers.
A simple stock and flow model of coastal management is presented
that is drawn from the legislative design of one of the oldest and
certainly successful U.S. state programs, Rhode Island’s Coastal
Resources Management Program. This model exhibits several
dynamic behaviors intuitively familiar to coastal managers. Model
runs are presented using parameters taken from the Rhode Island case,
including runs with and without the coastal management program in
place. These results are compared with performance data from the 35
year Rhode Island coastal program’s permit data base, and closely
reproduce long term trends in key variables. The forward-looking
scenarios are utilized to suggest approaches for the state program as it
enters the new century. Implications for newly emerging coastal
programs in developing countries are also drawn.

23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 127
Lewlyn Rodrigues

rodrigusr@yahoo.com

Manipal Institute of Technology

Dept of Mechanical & IP
Engineering

576 104 Karnataka

India

Morvin Savio Martis
oceanmartis@yahoo.com

G. R. Krishnamurthy

grkrishna_time@rediffinail.com

Brent Ross
rross@uiuc.edu

Univ of Illinois at Urbana-
Champaign

326 Mumford Hall MC-710
1301 West Gregory Drive
Urbana IL 61801 USA

Tommaso Rossi
trossi@liuc.it

Cattaneo University Italy
Corso Matteotti 22
Castellanza Italy

Modeling Engineering Competence Pool:
System Dynamics Based Implications for KM
& HRM Integration

This paper focuses on the application of system dynamics in the
integration of knowledge management (KM) and human resource
management (HRM) with specific reference to the determination of
the optimum setting of time-based policy parameters. The integration
of KM and HRM is wa.r.t. the engineering competence pool
development and deployment. The feedback as well as feed-forward
loops were used in the development of the control loops, which
govern the simulation carried out in two distinct stages. In both the
stages, the influence of the governing time-based policy parameters
has been studied to investigate the critical parameters, which
significantly influence the effectiveness of the system. The simulation
results envisage the effect of the policy parameters, based on which
implications are drawn for better policy evaluation and control. Even
though the study has a national context, the procedure adopted in this
research has the potential to be extended to the global level.

Imputing Economic Returns to
Entrepreneurial Behavior: A System Dynamics
Model of Firm-Level Innovation and Arbitrage

Firms need to act entrepreneurially to compete in today ultra-
competitive business environment. This requires firms to actively
search for and exploit opportunities to increase revenues or decrease
costs in an uncertain environment. Within a firm, these activities are
the functions of the entrepreneur or the entrepreneurial resources. In
return for their services, these resources receive payments known as
entrepreneurial rents. These rents are the result of subjective
judgments and the activities that generate them are subject to
imitation. Thus, entrepreneurial rents are both ex ante non-contractible
and temporary. These characteristics make their measurement difficult
for managers. This paper is an attempt to measure entrepreneurial
rents using a system dynamics framework. System dynamics models
are uniquely positioned to capture the dynamic complexities of these
rents. In doing so, I present a SD model of a three-site hog production
operation and compute the entrepreneurial rents generated from
several arbitrage and innovation activities.

A Formal Method for Analyzing and Assessing
Operational Risk in Supply Chains

This paper is aimed at formalizing an objective method to analyze and
assess operational risk in supply chains. The proposed approach
consists of exploiting the analogy among logistic networks and

128 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Carlo Noe
carlo.noe@polimi.it

Cattaneo University Italy
Corso Matteotti 22

21053 Castellanza VA Italy

Fabrizio Dallari
flallari@liue.it
Cattaneo University Italy

Santanu Roy
rsanS8@yahoo.co.uk

National Inst of Science Tech and
Dev

KS Krishnan Marg Pusa

New Delhi 110 012

India

Sunita Sharma

ruby _sonu@yahoo.com

National Institute of Sci Tech & Dev
9835 Fredericksburg Road #935

San Antonio TX 78240.

USA

Vikrant Bhushan

Alexander V. Ryzhenkov

ryzhenko@ieie.nse.ru
Russian Academy of Sciences

Inst for Economics and Industrial
Eng

17 Academician Lavrantiev Avenue
Novosibirsk 630090 Russia

dynamical systems; in particular, it proposes to identify the risky
events characterizing a generic supply chain by studying its attributed
Petri net and the corresponding coverability graph, whereas it suggests
to assess the risky events effects by building the logistic network
simulation model, experimenting on it and applying ANOVA to the
experimental campaigns results. Finally, the method has been applied
to a single-item, 3-stages supply chain to show how it can be
practically used.

Modelling and Analysis of the Indian
Outsourcing Industry: A System Dynamics
Approach

India is emerging as one of the biggest markets for offshore services.
Business process outsourcing (BPO) is the delegation of one or more
information technology (IT) intensive business processes to an
external provider that, in turn, owns, administrates and manages the
selected processes based upon defined and measurable performance
metrics. Offshore outsourcing is an umbrella term covering a range of
IT and business services delivered to companies in developed
countries by personnel based in developing countries. Though Indian
outsourcing industry is growing, the attrition rate is also rising in this
sector. So is the backlash against outsourcing. In order to survive and
grow in this scenario, Indian firms must ensure that their services are
not only cost-effective but also qualitatively superior. The present
study probes into these issues. The study aims to explore the structure
of Indian outsourcing industry through the methodology of system
dynamics. A system dynamics model has been developed, validated
and simulated over time to understand the trends that characterize this
industrial segment. The implications of the results of the study are
discussed.

Supposing a Control Law of Primary Income
Distribution for the Modern US Economy

This paper defines a hypothetical Law (HL) of capital accumulation
that includes a growth rate of supply of labour force as a non-linear
function of capital intensity. The main state variables are the labour
productivity, relative wage, employment ratio, and capital-output
ratio. An application of an extended Kalman filtering to the US
macroeconomic data 1969-2002 exhibits long wave as a viable
pattern generated by capital accumulation. Applying the Structural
Control Theory the present paper reveals closed loop control over a
fractional growth rate of total profit and its advantages in comparison
with an open loop control. The supposed control law of primary
distribution of income for the macroeconomic oscillatory system is
derived as a substantial modification of the initial HL. It is shown that
the US state and business leadership has been pursuing pro-growth
stabilization policy with a focus on primary income distribution at
least since 2001.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 129
Khalid Saeed
saced@upi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Social Science & Policy Studies
Dept

100 Institute Road

Worcester MA 01609 USA

Mohamed Mostafa Saleh
msaleh@idse.net.eg

Egyptian Cabinet

Information and Decision Support
Ctr

1 Magless Al-Shaab Street

Cairo Egypt

Pal I. Davidsen
davidsen@ifi.uib.no

University of Bergen

Department of Geography 7th Floor
Hermann Fossgt 6

5020 Bergen Norway

Khaled Abdel Hakim
Bayoumi
kbayoumi@iti-idsc.neteg
Egyptian Cabinet

ITI IDSC

1 Magles El-shaab Street
Cairo Egypt

Markus Salge
salgem(@is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Schloss Industrieseminar
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany

Classical Economics on Limits to Growth

Neoclassical economics seems to have rejected the concept of limits
to growth by assuming that the market and the technological advances
invoked by it will make it possible to tap new resources and create
substitution of production factors, while it has outright excluded
limitations invoked by the political, psychological and social
institutions in its analysis. Classical economics, other the other hand,
appears to have been cognizant of a multitude of limitations to
growth, including demographic, environmental, and social. This paper
reconstructs classical economic growth models using system
dynamics method and demonstrates their behavior using computer
simulation. A case is made for taking a pluralistic view of the growth
process and reincorporating a multitude of institutions driving it into
our models to arrive at realistic policy options.

A Comprehensive Eigenvalue Analysis of
System Dynamics Models

In this paper, we develop a comprehensive eigenvalue analysis for
linear models, in order to identify the leverage points in models. The
analysis is comprehensive as we develop a closed-form analytic
function relating the behavior of any state variable to all parameters in
the model. Moreover, by decomposing the behavior into several
modes of behavior — each characterized by an eigenvalue and an
eigenvector — it is possible to develop a closed-form analytic function
relating a certain mode of behavior to all parameters in the model. In
the first section of this paper, we explain the mathematical foundation
of eigenvalue analysis. In the second section we identify the origin of
the modes of behavior. This enables us to pinpoint the leverage points
of the model. Finally, in the last section, for illustration purpose, we
apply the method to a linearized version of the classical market
growth model. The analysis of this linearized model enables us to
explain the model behavior as a superposition of a number of behavior
modes, and set the stage for analyzing the original, non-linear version
of the model.

Lessons from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power
Plant Accident for the Design of
Organizational Improvement Initiatives

This paper analyzes the design and functionality of the nuclear
reactor, and the human failures on on-line operations, which had led
to the accident at the Chernobyl power plant, In April 26, 1986. The
paper finds that the combination of the Chernobyl-reactor
characteristics and “freak infringements” of safety rules did cause the
accident. The former aspect is due to the process of graphite-
moderated uranium fission, which tends to increase in reactivity in the
case of a malfunction or faulty operation. The latter is caused by the
effect that infringements which did not cause accidents in the past
lead to more violation of safety rules in the future. Transferred to

130 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Mehmet Samur
samur@boun.edu.tr

Bogazici University

Ikieylul Caddesi Yediler Sokak
No I/l

Superdorm Yurdu Od

Etiler Istanbul Turkey

Egzi Eren
ezgicaneren@yahoo.com

Texas A&M University

700 Dominik Drive #3206
College Sta TX 77840-3441 USA

Omer Hancer
omer@orie.cornell.edu
Cornell University

316 Highland Rd #C204
Ithaca NY 14850 USA

Belkis Tunakan
burcu@orie.cornell.edu
Cornell University

Joerg Sandrock
joerg.sandrock@iw.uka.de
University of Karlsruhe
Englerstrasse 14

76137 Karlsruhe
Germany

Christof Weinhardt
University of Karlsruhe
Englerstr 16

76137 Karlsruhe
Germany

Javier Santos
jsantos@tecnun.es

Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian Spain

Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegui@tecnun.es

Tecnun - University of Navarra
TECNUN

Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian Spain

organizational improvement programs, a corporation has to redesign
its structure in the vein that failures cannot spread quickly (i.e. loosely
coupled system elements), and to generate an atmosphere in order to
encourage and utilize the full benefits of employees’ participation.

A Computerized Beer Game and Decision-
Making Experiments

This paper has two goals: The first is to present a computerized
version of “Beer Game” originally developed as a board game to
teach managers the principles of supply chain management. The
multiplayer interactive simulation game we develop is 100 percent
faithful to the original game, so that experimental results from the
physical and computerized environments can be safely compared. The
simulation model used to represent the game also illustrates some
subtleties that a model builder must be careful about while simulating
a discrete and physical game. Secondly, the game was used as an
experimental platform and experiments were done in order to analyze
game medium (computer vs. board), demand pattern and learning
effects on performances of players. One striking result is the fact that
subjects who played the board game scored significantly better than
those who played the computerized version under the same
conditions.

System Dynamics Business Models for E-
Learning Content Providers

The quest for the right E-Learning business model is a strategic issue
for E-Learning-companies’ management. But like any new concept, it
is not short of confusion and ambiguity. This article gives a short
review of the controversial discussion of the value of E-Learning
business models and presents a simulation model built on system
dynamics concepts to analyse and evaluate formalized E-Learning
business models. This simulation model has been initialized and
validated by empirical data gathered from literature research and five
structured expert interviews. The simulation for different pricing and
licensing scenarios for E-Learning products reveals the complex
feedback structures in the pricing setting process and their impacts on
the performance of a E-Learning content provider.

Dynamic Aspects of an ERP Implementation
Project

The implementation of an ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning)
demands the development of a complex project. On one hand, the
scientific literature presents some key factors which allow the project
to reach the expected objectives. However, these researches do not
consider the dynamic relationships that take place among these key
factors, although interrelations can benefit or stop the project
development. On the other hand, there are different useful strategies

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 131
Nicolas Serrano
nserrano@tecnun.es

Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel Lardizabal, 13
20018 San Sebastian Spain

Rachmini Saparita
saparita@lipi.go.id

Indonesian Instituite of Sciences

Ctr for Appropriate Technology Dev
JIKS Tubun 5 Subang 41213

Jawa Barat Indonesia

Burhan Arief

Padjadjaran University

Faculty of Agriculture

JI Raya Bandung Sumedang Km 21
Jatinangor Sumedang Indonesia

Ronnie S. Natawidjaja
Padjadjaran University

Faculty of Agriculture

JI Raya Bandung Sumedang Km 21
Jatinangor Sumedang Indonesia

Muhammad Tasrif
ppeith@bdg.centrin.net.id

Bandung Institute of Technology
Energy Research and Development
Group

Ji Ganesha 10

Bandung 40132 Indonesia

Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegui@tecnun.es

Tecnun - University of Navarra
TECNUN

Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian

Spain

José Manuel Torres
jmtorres@tecnun.es

TECNUN University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian

Spain

Javier Santos
jsantos@tecnun.es

Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian

Spain

for an ERP implementation that directly affect the project
development. This paper develops a generic model to identify the
relationships among the main key factors (best fit with current
business process, resistance to change and training). The model has
been validated by a company dedicated to ERP implementation in
Spain. Finally, the model will also be useful to analyze the impact of
the different strategies in the management of an ERP implementation
project according with the project cost study.

Agricultural Transformation Model in
Indonesia Using a System Dynamics Approach

The aim of study was to know dynamics process of agricultural
transformation in Indonesia in supporting a fair agricultural economic
development. Computer model was built to comprehend the problem
and look for appropriate solution. The result showed that various
programs were performed to build a strong agricultural economic, but
the programs could not drive agricultural transformation properly,
which could brings Indonesian farmer to a better life. The
Government is required to run agricultural development policies that
push the income of farmer to a better condition. The proposed policy,
which consists of intensification program, agricultural investment,
technology adoption, and education progress, were expected could
generate the improvement of farmer’s income. However, the policy
should be proceed together with land reform in order to get a fair
distribution of land, so the farmer have a chance to carry out
commercial activity after satisfying their basic needs. Key Words:
agricultural transformation, agricultural development, system
dynamics, models.

Explaining Security Management Evolution
through the Analysis of CIOs’ Mental Models

Information Systems are a key factor for firms’ competitiveness.
Thus, their efficient management has become a key concern and
security management one of the most relevant issues. An empirical
study has been developed to determine the characteristics of security
management within Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs). A
summary of the main data from this study is presented. The results of
this study have showed that the evolution of security management
within firms has evolved through similar patterns of behaviour. Some
phases have been defined to explain the evolution of security
management within SMEs. The defined phases are: Growth,
Integration, Formalization and Involvement. To explain these phases
causal loop diagrams and behaviour over time graphs have been used.
Both elements help to more accurately understand the mental models
of the people in charge of managing the security of information
systems.

132. 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Agata Sawicka
agata.sawicka@hia.no
Agder University College
Grooseveien 36
NO-4876 Grimstad
Norway

René Molkenthin
rene.molkenthin@uni-mainz.de
Johannes-Gutenberg-University of
Mainz

Jakob Welder-Weg 9

55128 Mainz

Germany

Agata Sawicka
agata.sawicka@hia.no
Agder University College
Grooseveien 36
NO-4876 Grimstad
Norway

Jose J. Gonzalez

jose,j. gonzalez@hia.no

Agder University College

Faculty of Engineering and Science
Grooseveien 36

NO-4876 Grimstad

Norway

Ying Qian

iris_gian@hotmail.com

Agder University College

Faculty of Science and Engineering
Groosvn 36

NO-4876 Grimstad

Norway

Burkhard Schade
burkhard.schade@iww.uni-karlsruhe.de
University of Karlsruhe

Kollegium am Schloss Bau IV
76128 Karlsruhe

Germany

Cognitive Load Dynamics: How to Increase
Effectiveness of System Dynamics-Based
Learning Environments

A system dynamics (SD) model without an instructional overlay is not
a sufficient learning tool (Spector and Davidsen 1997, Alessi 2000).
We propose Cognitive Load Theory (CLT, Sweller 1988) as a
theoretical framework for devising effective instructional context for
SD models. Providing a systematic distinction between the several
sources of cognitive load, CLT specifies what (and why) should be
considered when the instructional overlay for a learning environment
is designed. Having developed a simple SD model of the theory, we
use it to explore how various instructional choices might impact
effectiveness of the learning process. Finally, we consider the CLT
recommendations in the context of SD-based learning environments
and discuss how they may provide input to developing a set of
guidelines for design of effective ways to communicate insights of SD
models to a broader audience.

Managing CSIRT Capacity as a Renewable
Resource Management Challenge: An
Experimental Study

CSIRTs are security incident handling organizations serving a parent
organization or a “constituency” of independent organizations.
CSIRTs struggle coping with the increasing number and
sophistication of incidents; staff is overloaded with work; managers
‘over-utilize'’ their teams. The CSIRT 'mismanagement' problem can
be framed as a case of natural resource management. Studies by
Moxnes suggest that misperception of dynamics may contribute to
natural resources mismanagement. We replicate experiments by
Moxnes (2004), reframing the one-stock reindeer rangeland
management task as a challenge in sustainable CSIRT management.
Our results suggest: 1) The misperception of dynamics persists when
the problem context changes; 2) people employ a_ simplistic
anchoring-and-adjustment decision rule to deal with the problem; 3)
our data do not support the version of the rule proposed by Moxnes.
We hypothesize that the observed misperception might at least in part
depend on the way in which the task was presented.

KEYNEO - a KEYnesian and NEOclassical
Model of the German Economy

The aim of the System Dynamics Model KEYNEO is to model the
German economy over a long time period (40 years). Keynesian and
neoclassical elements form the base of KEYNEO. In the first step a
complex feedback structure was developed to model the main
economic variables on an aggregate level. The equations for the
supply and the demand side of the economy were defined in the
second step. The results of different runs demonstrate that KEYNEO

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 133
Burkhard Schade
burkhard.schade@iww.uni-karlsruhe.de
University of Karlsruhe

Kollegium am Schloss Bau IV
76128 Karlsruhe Germany

Wolfgang Schade
w.schade@isi.fraunhofer.de
Fraunhofer Institute

Systems and Innovation Research
Breslauer Str 48

76139 Karlsruhe Germany

Martin Franz Georg
Schaffernicht

martin@utalea.el
Universidad de Talca
FACE

Avenida Lircay s/n
Talca Chile

Tim Scheffmann
tim.scheffmann@web.de
An den Krautgirten 29
65760 Eschborn
Germany

mimics historic data quite good. With the use of optimization tools the
parameters could be estimated. The statistical analysis of KEYNEO
shows that the results are highly significant. This verification
underlines the quality of KEYNEO to model an economy. In addition,
the structure of KEYNEO may serve as input for much more
sophisticated models.

Assessment of Environmentally Sustainable
Transport Scenarios by a Backcasting
Approach with ESCOT

The aim of the System Dynamics Model ESCOT is to describe a path
towards a sustainable transport system in Germany and to assess its
economic impacts. ESCOT was developed within the environmentally
sustainable transport (EST) project of the OECD that was designed to
set-up the ecological and technical framework of a transition towards
sustainable transportation. ESCOT comprises five models: the
macroeconomic, the transport, the regional economic, the
environmental and the policy model. The economic assessment for
environmentally sustainable scenarios shows that the departure from
car- and road freight-oriented transport policy is far away from
leading to an economic breakdown. By expanding the time period for
the transition we derived even more encouraging economic results.
For the economic assessment it is important that ESCOT considers not
only first round effects but also secondary effects. This ability makes
ESCOT a powerful instrument for the assessment of such large system
changes.

Are You Experienced? — A Model of Learning
Systems Thinking Skills

This paper proposes a contribution to the domain of systems thinking
skills. Empirical studies have repeatedly shown surprising
misperceptions and inabilities in subjects confronted with tasks
involving very simple stock and flow systems. Here it is proposed to
represent these skills as implicit integration, by which Polanyi
modeled our ability to know. In this framework, Dreyfus and Dreyfus’
five stage model of learning is used to construct three hypotheses
concerning the learning of systems thinking and its importance for
learning from modeling and interaction with models. The tests
elaborated by Ossimitz are adapted for this purpose and some tasks
are added, to serve in the experimental corroboration of the
hypotheses. Since the empirical work is currently under way, only few
results can be presented; consequently the main contribution is the
conceptual construction of the hypotheses.

Bank Management of Risk Dynamics

In banks decisions are made in a speedy and complex environment
often with huge uncertainty. This risk must be managed proactively
on an enterprise level. To accomplish this task, a systemic view of the
bank is essential. Up to now there is no standardised approach for

134 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Nadine Schieritz
nadines@is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany

Marcus Schroeter
marcus.schroeter@tu-bs.de
Technical University of
Braunschweig

Dept of Production Management
Katharinenstr 3

D-38106 Braunschweig Germany

Thomas Spengler
tspengler@tu-bs.de

Technical University of
Braunschweig

Inst for Economics and Business
Admin

Dept of Production Management
38106 Braunschweig Germany

Maria Serrano
mserrano@unab.edu.co
Universidad Autonoma de
Bucaramanga

Calle 48 Nr 39-234
Bucaramanga Santander
Colombia

analysing the overall risk dynamics of a bank that is capable of
describing the forces inherent in risk management. Most risk models
are constrained by their static view, so that they hardly capture the
rapid and discontinuous changes. This paper examines the dynamics
by applying system dynamics to enterprisk risk management, with the
aim of understanding the banks’ risk dynamics. In order to simulate
the risk dynamics of a universal bank a dynamical enterprise risk
model was developed. By combining the disciplines of enterprise risk
management and system dynamics, this paper shows how a systemic
view can improve structures in bank risk management and the need
for large system thinking.

Agents First! — Using Agent-Based Simulation
to Identify and Quantify Macro Structures

The agent-based simulation approach models social phenomena as
resulting from local interactions of agents one level below the
phenomenon. Compared to system dynamics studies this often
requires a lower level of abstraction what can make agent-based
models easier to quantify. This paper analyzes the potential of the
agent-based approach (i) to quantify a known aggregate causal
structure and (ii) to identify the unknown aggregate structure of a
problem. The two cases are investigated using very simple models of
population dynamics.

A System Dynamics Model for Strategic
Management of Spare Parts in Closed-Loop
Supply Chains

The strategy to recover components from discarded electrical and
electronic equipment to obtain spare parts is promising, especially
during the final service phase. In that phase, the original product is no
longer produced and the sources of new parts are often limited.
Controlling those closed-loop supply chains is challenging. Decision
makers have to choose when to acquire discarded equipment, when to
recover used parts, and when to produce new parts. We developed a
generic system dynamics model that provides a test for various
proposed policies to control closed-loop supply chains with parts
recovery and spare-parts supply.

Revealing the Colombian Government's
Coherence in the Design of Food Security
Policies

Studies made by the Swiss politician Jean Ziegler show that the world
agricultural system is able to feed twice the population of the planet.
However, 800 million people are hungry. During the last years, the
Colombian Government has been designing policies oriented to

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 135
Ricardo Sotaquira
rsotaqui@unab.edu.co
Universidad Autonoma de
Bucaramanga

Calle 48 Nr 39-234
Bucaramanga Santander
Colombia

Ravi Shankar
ravil@dms.iitd.ernet.in

Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
Department of Management Studies
Hauz Khas New Delhi 110 016
New Delhi 110 016 India

V. Ravi

to_raviv@yahoo.com

Indian Institute of Technology Delhi
Department of Management Studies
Hauz Khas New Delhi 110 016
New Delhi 110 016 India

Ritu Sharma

ritu.sharma@paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group

One Memorial Drive
Cambridge MA 02142
USA

Tom Mullen
tom.mullen@paconsulting.com
PA Consulting

One Memorial Drive
Cambridge MA 02142
USA

provide solutions to the hunger problem and thus to decrease the
number of Colombian families which lack this fundamental right, the
food supply. However, the effects of these policies have not been the
expected ones, on the contrary, lower class people is still plunged into
poverty and hunger. Why have they not been effective? Which have
been the consequences of implementing those policies? Considering
the impact of economic liberalization during the 90’s on the
agricultural sector, a model has been constructed taking into account
the national production, the cultivated area, the people working and
the capital invested on the agricultural process. The simulation results
of the implementation of the commerce liberalization policies seem to
match with the results recorded in the Agricultural and Rural
development Ministry. Finally, the model will be tested in a scenario
that includes the policies that are part of the Development Plan
proposed by the current Government 2002-2006 to observe possible
consequences of this implementation.

Scenario Building and Policy Experimentation
of Reverse Logistics of an Automobile Supply
Chain

The aim of this article is scenario building and policy experimentation
of reverse logistics variables for an automobile supply chain. The
reverse logistics operations are becoming a necessity with ever
growing concern for the environment. There is a close inter-coupling
of economic, technological, political, and social forces affecting
reverse logistics practices in the automobile industry. In this context,
it is important to understand the transition phases of market scenarios
in reverse logistics practices. For this, one has to understand the
complex interactions and dynamics of different variables affecting
reverse logistics. Scenario building and policy experimentation would
enable the top management to detect and explore alternative futures so
that present actions can be fine-tuned. Results of simulation of the SD
model indicate that there are a few reverse logistics variables, which
are instrumental in triggering the other variables of the model so that
the desired results could be achieved faster. Key words: Reverse
logistics, system dynamics (SD), scenario building, policy
experimentation.

Making Big Decisions Better

Most large development projects suffer overruns and delays, despite
substantial effort spent on systems tracking risks and projecting
performance. Managers have an especially difficult time making big
decisions such as major project re-plans. Typical project management
systems have key blind spots that limit their value for comprehensive
decisions. Most project management tools are blind to project
dynamics — variations in productivity and quality over time under
different conditions. System Dynamics models have been used to
address this weakness and capture project dynamics, but typically
these models have their own blind spots as they omit key details. With
many pressing decisions and little time, managers rely on intuition to
supplement the limitations of management tools. The combination of

136 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
William Siemer
wfs1@cornell.edu

Cornell University

119 Fernow Hall

Dept of Natural Resources
Ithaca NY 14853

USA

Peter A. Otto
ottop@dowling.edu
Dowling College

School of Business

150 Idle Hour Boulevard
Oakdale NY 11769
USA

Gill Smith
gill.smith@olmgroup.com

OLM Consulting

Cairns House 10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA
UK

Eric F. Wolstenholme
e.wolstenholme@btinternet.com
Fieldings 12 Rivock Avenue
Steeton Keighley West Yorks BD20
6SA UK

Dean Repper
dean.repper@nimhenorthwest.org.uk
NIMHE North West

Hyde Hospital, 2nd Floor
Grange Road South

Hyde SK14 SNY

UK

Birgitte Snabe
birgitte@snabe.net
Mannheim University
Schloss Industrieseminar
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany

little time for major decisions, limited tools, and unreliable intuition is
a key contributor to the poor results often achieved on major projects.
This paper offers perspective on the challenges of making major
decisions and describes a case using an integrated management tool --
a System Dynamics model linked to a database of project details. This
management system was used to restructure a multi-billion dollar
development program with detail and rigor — examining dozens of
different options, sensitivities, and leverage points in one month.

A Group Model-Building Intervention to
Support Wildlife Management Decisions

A variety of approaches are being developed to elicit knowledge from
clients and develop that knowledge into conceptual maps and formal
simulation models. We completed a project that provides a case
example where the “standard method” was adapted for use in a group
model-building intervention. We worked with a group of 10 wildlife
managers to support system conceptualization, model formulation,
and management response to an increase in negative human-black
bear interactions in residential areas of New York State. This article
discusses the procedural and conceptual steps, insights, and lessons
learned from our model building intervention. Our paper focuses on
model-building process and learning outcomes, rather than
quantitative validation of a simulation model.

Initial Experiences of Introducing System
Dynamics through a Mental Health Project in
North West England

The paper describes a partnership project between three parties,
centred on the use of System Dynamics (SD) in a Mental Health Trust
(MHT). The main learning experiences relate to the politics of
introducing challenging concepts in a situation where participants
prefer to avoid confrontation. The rigorous nature of SD modeling and
simulation raises questions which operational managers may fear
reflect badly on the organization and their own capabilities. They may
be uncomfortable with questions about the evidence-base for current
treatments, or the research to back their ideas for future developments.
A further issue is the ambiguity inherent in definitions of SD and the
likelihood that many managers prefer single-issue projects, based on
their comfort zone of practice/expertise. A hypothesis is developed to
describe the observed reactions in the project and suggest alternative
approaches in carrying out SD projects in the UK public sector.

Targeted Participative Modelling — Conceptual
Discussion and Case Study Presentation

The purpose of the paper is to propose a modelling approach to be
used in targeted organisational interventions focusing on strategic
business objectives and change management. The approach builds
upon prevalent participative modelling approaches with the extension

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 137
Hae-Deok Song

hsong@uamail.albany.edu
University at Albany
Education 115B
Albany NY 12222
USA

Wei-Tsong Wang
ww8256@albany.edu

University at Albany

School of Information Science &
Policy

840 Washington Avenue

Albany NY 12203

USA

Chao-Yueh Liu
chaoyueh.liu@gmail.com
University at Albany
14 Niblock Ct F12
Albany NY 12206
USA

Sehnaz Baltaci
sehnazb@hotmail.com
University at Albany

Dept of Educational Theory &
Practice

1400 Washington Avenue
Albany NY 12222

USA

Krystyna A. Stave
kstave@ccmail.nevada.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway

Box 454030

Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA

Michael F. Dwyer
mdwyer@unlv.nevada.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
2109 Madagascar Lane

Las Vegas NV 89117

USA

of increased focus on intervention planning, stakeholder management,
and structured implementation. A single-site longitude case study
regarding development of a balanced R&D location strategy served as
inspiration for the development of the approach — and in the paper it
also serves as a practical illustration of the approach. Interesting
insights include successful observations of individual learning and
group communication in a modelling study, which is more targeted on
predefined business objectives than usually seen in the SD
community. However, generic conclusions must await further
research within the area.

Simulating the Impacts of Factors that
Support Faculty Adoption of Web-Based
Instruction

This article attempts to build a simulation model of the impacts of
factors that facilitates faculty adoption of Web-Based Instruction
(WBI) from the perspective of the faculty’ stages of concerns. Faculty
have different concerns as they integrate new technology into their
teaching. Without reducing these concerns, WBI integration will not
be successful. Four main stages of faculty concern (information,
personal, management, and impact concern) were identified based on
Hall’s concern-based adoption model. Reviewing literature on the
diffusion of on-line education, we have identified support factors that
may decrease faculty’s concerns for adopting WBI in their education
settings. These factors were incorporated into the simulation model in
order to test the potential impacts of the factors on faculty adoption of
WBI. The current simulation model built in Stella® will aid educators
or administrators to evaluate the impact of the factors on adoption of
WBI.

A Group Model Building Process to Integrate
Land Use, Transportation, and Air Quality
Planning in Las Vegas, Nevada

This paper uses the framework proposed by Rouwette et al. (2002) to
describe the group model building stage of a project to integrate land
use, transportation and air quality planning in a rapidly growing
metropolitan area. The purpose of the paper is twofold: to present a
case of group model building in the public sector, and to test the
framework for reporting about group model building interventions.
The main goal of the intervention described is to evaluate the effect of
potential land use and transportation policy changes on urban quality
of life factors such as air quality and traffic congestion. A secondary

138 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Krystyna A. Stave
kstave@cemail.nevada.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
4505 Maryland Parkway

Box 454030

Las Vegas NV 89154-4030
USA

Michael F. Dwyer
mdwyer@unlv.nevada.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
2109 Madagascar Lane

Las Vegas NV 89117

USA

Jeroen Struben
jirs@mit.edu

MIT

750 Tremont Street Apt 9
Boston MA 02118

USA

goal is to foster interagency and intergovernmental collaboration.
After approximately 15 months, the project is at the end of its first
stage. A quantitative model has been completed and is being tested by
the modeling group. In the next stage, the model will be used by
policy-makers for policy evaluation.

Modeling the Relationship between Population
and Land Development under Changing Land
Use Policies

This paper discusses a model developed to assess the effects of land-
use changes on traffic congestion and air quality. The inputs are
characteristics of development and the outputs are time in traffic per
capita, and tons of carbon monoxide from vehicles. As previously
developed urban dynamics models have done, the model includes a
relationship between the output variables and the attractiveness of the
area as a place to live. Particular attention is paid in this paper to
challenges associated with modeling the relationship between
population and land development in urban areas where alternative
land-uses are being contemplated. The evolution of an approach to
overcoming the challenges is presented.

Space Matters Too! Mutualistic Dynamics
between Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Demand
and Fueling Infrastructure

Pressures from human induced climate-change, pollution, and fossil
fuel scarcity stimulate interest in alternative fuel vehicles, and in
particular hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCV’s). The transition from
internal combustion engine vehicles to HFCV’s is complex as various
‘chicken-egg’ mechanisms interact in a highly integrated fashion, and
the mechanisms are highly non-linear. This paper focuses on one of
the most critical chicken-egg problems: the mutualistic dynamics of
HFCV adoption and its fueling infrastructure. The effects of local
demand-supply interactions on these dynamics are explored in depth.
This paper develops a dynamic, behavioral model of vehicle adoption
and fueling infrastructure with explicit spatial structure. Simulations
are performed for a reduced version. A homogeneous market with
strategically locating fuel-station entrants yields fast transition
through the formation of adoption clusters (niches). However, under
heterogeneous conditions the same micro-mechanisms can counteract
the emergence of a sustainable market. Policy implications are
significant. This spatial behavioral dynamic model (SBDM) can be
used to compare targeted entrance strategies for hydrogen fuel supply.
Insights can be used for an aggregate HFCV transition model that
includes other mechanisms. Finally, the paper should stimulate a
discussion on merits and limitations of spatial modeling as applied to
more general socio-economic issues.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 139
Toru Suetake
tohru.suetake@jp.kpmg.com
Chuo University
Soshigaya 1-11-23
Setagaya-ku

Tokyo 157

Japan

Makoto Ikeda
ikeda@itakura.toyo.ac.jp
Toyo University
Izumino 1-1-1
Itakura-machi Oura-gun
Gunma-pref 374-0193
Japan

Finn Olay Sveen
fosvee03@student.hia.no

Agder University College

Faculty of Engineering and Science
Grooseveien 36

NO-4876 Grimstad

Norway

Jose J. Gonzalez

jose,j. gonzalez@hia.no

Agder University College

Faculty of Engineering and Science
Grooseveien 36

NO-4876 Grimstad

Norway

Richard Sanders
dick.sanders@sca.com

SCA Packaging Coordination Center
NV

Twin Squares Business Park
Culliganlaan 1 D

BE-1831 Diegem

Belgium

Yutaka Takahashi
takahasi@isc.senshu-u.ac.jp
Senshu University

2-1-1 Higashimita Tama
Kawasaki Kanagawa 214-8580
Japan

Public Policy Evaluation using System
Dynamics Group Modeling

Though evaluation of public policy and projects of government-to-
government assistance are quite common in Japan, evaluator use
logical model bases for evaluation that is simple tree type model
without incorporate loop or feed back effects. Author has insisting
that SD modeling is applicable for quantitative evaluation of public
policy but find some difficulty with traditional group model building
method. In this paper, we wish to discuss new style SD/ST model
building for public policy evaluation.

Applying Generic System Archetypes to a
"Beyond the Core’ Challenge

We describe an attempt to model an enterprise’s expansion into
business adjacencies within the scope of a Master thesis. It was crucial
to define a strategy that would allow the Master student to grow with
the task (gain experience with modeling), at the same time ensuring
communication with the client and proving the ability of qualitative
SD modeling to deliver insights. After identifying problem symptoms,
the enterprise problem was explored with methods from Chris Zook:
“Beyond the Core’. Six cases from Zook’s book offering points of
entry for the enterprise problem were cast into generic archetypes and
presented to the problem owner. Two archetypes belonging to the
“Underachievement” class were identified as most relevant for the
enterprise problem, viz. 1) underachievement due to long distance
between the core and the adjacency, and 2) underachievement due to
poor adjacency repeatability. We developed a preliminary system
dynamics model embedding both archetypes. The model gives
sensible results with basic policies affecting distance to the core and
repeatability. The preliminary results have strengthened the client’s
interest in the modeling work. Further joint modeling sessions have
been scheduled. Work is still in progress.

Influence of Free Version upon Pay Version of
High Specialty Software Diffusion

Today software vendors have various ways to handle their products.
In contrast to non-software products, software products’ properties can
be changed or controlled at a low cost; vendors do not need to extend
their operations, and well-designed software can be customized
systematically. Moreover, its diffusion is influenced by network
externalities. The diffusion structures of software that have single user
type, e.g. World Wide Web browsers, can be expressed mainly as a
single reinforcing loop. This is because users can be considered as
homogeneous. However, there are multiple possibilities of structure,
which corresponds to business strategies for software which has

140 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Yutaka Takahashi
takahasi@isc.senshu-u.ac.jp
Senshu University

2-1-1 Higashimita Tama
Kawasaki Kanagawa 214-8580
Japan

David Thompson
dt, home@comeast.net
Crescent Solutions

1102 Russell Drive
Highland Beach FL 33487
USA

B. Bush

bwb@lanl.gov

Los Alamos National Laboratory
PO Box 1663

Los Alamos NM 87545

USA

Warren W. Tignor
tignorw@saic.com

SAIC

472 Cornwall Court
Severna Park MD 21146
USA

divided users. An example in this category would be highly
specialized software, e.g. simulation software. We attempt to explain
diffusion processes and characteristics concerning network
externalities of software in this category using System Dynamics
models. This paper shows that multiple editions can more effectively
assist diffusion of main products than strengthening network
externality effects.

Translation from Natural Language to Stock
Flow Diagrams

Mental models are bases to recognise phenomena and make plans to
improve situations. They can be expressed in model builders’ natural
language. It is also necessary to examine mental models using a
computer simulation. The Computer simulation requires expressions,
which can be translated into computer codes. Therefore, model
builders need to translate their model from their own natural language
to simulation-friendly language, i.e. stock flow diagrams in System
Dynamics. It is widely recognised that this translation is sometimes
difficult not only for people who are beginners of System Dynamics
but also for people who are experienced in the field. This paper
discusses a possible translation procedure and shows an application of
it. The proposed procedure is designed to use a subset of a natural
language as an intermediate language. This idea is applicable
regardless of variety of natural language.

Software Practices Applied to System
Dynamics: Support for Large Scale Group
Development

The development of large software systems using systems dynamics
languages has been hampered by the lack of application of, and
support for, modern software techniques. Support is needed to handle
the challenges of modular system dynamics model development.
These development challenges include the handling of namespaces,
linking separate modes, and maintaining clean logical separations
among components. Most modern software patterns and languages
support such a capability. This paper presents an approach to group,
large scale, system dynamics model development that has proven
valuable in our project. Our approach included the creation of a
software tool, called Conductor, to facilitate our group development.
The tool, Conductor, is generally applicable to other projects using
Vensim®.

Dynamic Unity — Theory U and System
Dynamics
This paper explores Dynamic Unity between Theory U and System

Dynamics as a way to generally illuminate the "blind spot" and create
the setting for presencing. By describing the blind spot as a System

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 141
Igor E. Timchenko
timchenko@stel.sebastopol.ua
National Acad of Sciences of
Ukraine

Marine Hydrophysical Institute
2 Kapitanskaya Str

Sevastopol 99011 Ukraine

Ekaterina M. Igumnova
National Acad of Sciences of
Ukraine

Marine Hydrophysical Institute
2 Kapitanskaya Str

Sevastopol 99011 Ukraine

Trina I. Timchenko
National Acad of Sciences of
Ukraine

Marine Hydrophysical Institute
2 Kapitanskaya Str

Sevastopol 99011 Ukraine

José Manuel Torres
jmtorres@tecnun.es

TECNUN University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian Spain

Jose Mari Sarriegi
jmsarriegui@tecnun.es

Tecnun - University of Navarra
TECNUN

Paseo Manuel de Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian Spain

Javier Santos
jsantos@tecnun.es

Tecnun - University of Navarra
Paseo Manuel Lardizabal 13
20018 San Sebastian Spain

Dynamics process with a model and behavior, it is hoped that
Dynamic Unity will facilitate recognition of the blind spot and
produce better understanding of social actions. Dynamic unity
between Theory U and System Dynamics will facilitate: identification
of common assumptions, modeling of the current problem, producing
repeatable results through simulation, and discovery of new insights
from simulation results. The instance of presencing will remain the
domain of social science, neuroscience and others to explain. Using
System Dynamics to project policies through simulation, identify
emerging phenomenon, accelerate the learning process, decrease
dependence on past experience, change mental models into new
insightful beliefs will take us to the threshold of Theory U presencing.

Systems Thinking and Dynamic-Stochastic
Modeling of Educational Processes

In this work we bring in a concise form some basic ideas of systems
management methodology for adaptive systems.It includes four
component parts: systems principles, systems thinking, systems
modeling and systems management. Systems principles must be used
to project systems management technologies for a goal-seeking
movement in any complex system based on systems thinking and
systems modeling. In particular, the adaptive balance of causes
principle serves as a ground for a new adaptive balance of causes (or
ABC) modeling method discussed in this paper. Systems thinking
concepts were also built on systems principles. In accordance with the
principle of information unity of theory and experiment stochastic
methods of observational data assimilation in ABC models were
developed. By that way dynamic-stochastic models (DSM) of
complex systems were built. The suggested systems methodology of
management is examined on examples of educational systems. We
aimed to show that dynamic-stochastic models of educational systems
enable to give realistic development scenarios of such processes.
Examples demonstrating possibilities of the systems methodology of
student’s teaching and forming student’s communicative culture were
presented.

Searching for Preventive-Corrective Security
Balance

Organizations are becoming more aware about the importance of
economic, financial and risk management aspects of information
system security. As a result, the balance between preventive and
corrective security strategies must be studied. We understand
Preventive Security as the ability of organizations to avoid the impact
of an incident and Corrective Security as the ability of the firm to
recover from the losses generated by an incident. This paper presents
a model to analyze the Preventive-Corrective security balance. The
main objective of this model is to simulate and analyze the impact that
two security behaviors (security investments and strategy) can have
one a given enterprise environment. After running 54 simulations,
some interesting security behaviors called our attention.

142. 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Ya-tsai Tseng
ytiseng@mail.thu.edu.tw

Tunghai University

Dept of Business Administration
407 Taichung Taiwan

Wei Yang Wang
wyang@ce.kuas.edu.tw
National Kaohsiung Univ of
Applied Sci

415 Chien-Kung Road

807 Kaohsiung Taiwan

Yi-Ming Tu
ymtu@mis.nsysuedu.tw

National Sun Yat-Sen University
Dept of Information Management
Systems

70 Lian Hai Rd She-Tze Wan
Kaohsiung 804 Taiwan

Shigehisa Tsuchiya
tsuchiva@pfit-chiba.ac.jp

Chiba Institute of Technology
Grad School of Mgt and Systems
Eng

2-17-1 Tsudanuma
Narashino-shi 275-0016

Japan

Koichi Sekimizu
sekimizu@aitel.toshiba.co,jp

Aitel Corporation

8 Shinsugita

Isogo-ku Yokohama-shi 235-8523
Japan

Noriko Tsuchiya
noriko28@jmail.plala.or.jp

Japan Women's College of Physical
Educ

10-21 Nibancho

Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 102-0084

Japan

Akira Uchino
uchino@isc.senshu-u.ac.jp
Senshu University

School of Commerce
2-1-1 Higashimita Tamaku
Kawasaki 214-8580 Japan

The Utilization of Shared Demand Information
in a Textile Supply Chain

The focus of this paper is information exploration using alternative
utilization models to test how a supply chain responds to demand
changes. From the feedback perspective, it is found that the echelon
stock policy generates a more complex feedback structure than the
installation stock policy; and has different time patterns of inventory
adjustment actions. Considering the relative higher cost for small- and
medium- size enterprises to adopt advance information technology in
our textile supply chain case, this paper further examines the impact
of information technology in the echelon stock policy and the
installation stock policy. The findings show that information
technology investment could be more beneficial for supply chains
with the installation stock policy. Finally, this paper mixes the PID
controller design concept with the two information utilization models
and so suggests further development for information utilization
designs.

Learner-Centered Communication on Nuclear
Risk: Public Participation and Transparency
through a Gaming/Simulation Approach

This paper discusses our project under a three-year research contract
with the Japanese Government to gain public acceptance of nuclear
facilities in local communities by improving risk communication
through a gaming/simulation approach. Evidence suggests that nuclear
public education programs are not communicating the critical safety
information necessary to eliminate anxiety of people living around
nuclear facilities. To most utilities and government, risk
communication means persuasion. Based on the findings of our visits
to several authorities, municipalities and nuclear facilities in Japan,
Sweden, Norway and USA, we built a causal-loop model regarding
nuclear risk communication. According to our model, the root cause
of the problem is lack of trust, and the leverages are public
participation and transparency which can create learner-centered two-
way communication environment. “THE TREASURE HUNTING”,
one of our five gaming/simulations for this project, is intended to
create such an environment so that local residents may deepen
understanding of nuclear risk and build up a mutual trust relationship
with disaster prevention experts. After many internal test runs, we
have run this exercise six times so far with the nuclear disaster
prevention experts and the local residents near nuclear facilities in
various parts of Japan. The results have been quite satisfactory.

Some Contributions toward Spatial Urban
Dynamics

There was an interesting presentation at ISDC 2004 in Oxford. The
title was “Spatial urban dynamics” presented by Peter Sanders and

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 143
Nobuhide Tanaka
770566@gakushuin.ac.jp
Gakushuin University
Faculty of Economics
1-5-1 Mejiro Toshima-ku
Tokyo 171-8588

Japan

Yutaka Takahashi
takahasi@ise.senshu-u.ac.jp
Senshu University

2-1-1 Higashimita Tama
Kawasaki Kanagawa 214-8580
Japan

Tetsuma Furihata
furihata@ms, kuki.tus.ac.jp
University of Shimane

2433-2 Nobara-cho
Hamada-shi Shimane 697-0016
Japan

Silvia Astrid Ulli-Beer
silvia.ulli-beer@ikaoe.unibe.ch
University of Berne
Roggenweg 7

4900 Langenthal

Switzerland

Birgit Kopainsky
birgit.kopainsky@iaw.agrl.ethz.ch
Swiss Federal Institute of
Technology

Agricultural Economics SOL F10
Sonneggstrasse 33

CH-8092 Ziirich

Switzerland

Ueli Haefeli

hacfeli@interface-politikstudien.ch

Interface Institute for Policy Studies

Seidenhofstrasse 12
CH-6003 Luzern
Switzerland

Ruth Kaufmann-Hayoz

ruth kaufmann-hayoz@ikaoe.unibe.ch
University at Berne

Falkenplatz 16

CH-3012 Berne

Switzerland

Cornelia van Daalen
cvandaalen@thm.tudelfi.n!

Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Tech Policy and Mgt
PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft The Netherlands

Frank Sanders. They expanded Forrester’s original urban dynamics
model in terms of spatial point of view. While one of us has been
studying Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and applying GIS to
consumer spatial behavior. Recently we have got some research
results, one of which explains how retailers agglomerate in a city, and
the other shows one of the method of calculating relative
attractiveness of retail areas. In this paper, we make some contribution
toward spatial urban dynamics, firstly discussing the importance of
the concept of “attractiveness” in social sciences, secondly showing
latest research result on “the attractiveness” outside of system
dynamics field and how to take it into spatial urban dynamics, thirdly
making constructive comments on Sanders’ approach, finally referring
to a strong possibility of expanding spatial urban dynamics toward
national models and world models.

Envisioning and Probing the Model for Policy
Learning and Scenario Planning

This paper describes the process of a combined system dynamics
modeling and scenario planning approach. It empirically investigates
how envisioning and probing system dynamic modeling has the
potential to raise effectiveness of scenario planning for organizational
learning and improved decision making. The approach is illustrated by
means of a case study that was used to explore the influence of social
trends on dynamic interactions between transport behavior and spatial
development in Switzerland. In this case study a system dynamics
model was developed that served as a communication tool for strategy
development and for enhancing goal alignment between different
policy sectors at the national level. A qualitative content analysis
illustrates how comments from participants of group modeling
workshops can be opened up as empirical indicators of stimuli for
improved learning. Additionally, it gives empirical evidence that the
chosen approach contributes to mitigating four drivers of unexpected
decision failure as discriminated by Chermack (2004a): bounded
rationality, the tendency to consider only exogenous variables,
stickiness and friction of information and knowledge, and mental
model with decision premise:

Translating Insights from a Causal Loop
Diagram into a Game

This paper concerns a project of limited scope to study why
innovations in health care often fail to be adopted and how this may
be improved. The project consisted of two workshops with
participants from different areas of health care. The objective was to

144 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 ~ 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Pieter W. G. Bots
p.w.g.bots@tbm.tudelft.nl

Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Technology Policy & Mgt
PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft The Netherlands

Michelle J. A. Hendriks
m,j.a.hendriks@thm.tudelfi.nl

Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Technology Policy & Mgt
PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft The Netherlands

Jill Slinger

Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Technology Policy & Mgt
Jaffalaan 5 PO Box 5015

2600 GA Delft The Netherlands

Luc Van Den Durpel
vddurpel@listo.be

LISTO bvba

Groenstraat 35

B-9250 Waasmunster
Belgium

Roel van der Sanden
Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Nijmegen The Netherlands

Hayke Everwijn

Radboud University Nijmegen
Nijmegen School of Management
Nijmegen The Netherlands

Etiénne A. J. A. Rouwette
e.rouwette@fin.ru.nl

Radboud University Nijmegen

Th van Aquinostraat 5.0.64

PO Box 9108

6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands

Jan Gubbels

identify factors influencing adoption of innovations, relating the
factors to each other, and looking for measures to stimulate the
adoption of innovations. During the first workshop, possible effects of
innovations and prerequisites for adopting innovations were identified
and prioritised. This resulted in draft causal loop diagrams. During the
second workshop, refined diagrams were used to identify measures for
stimulating the adoption of innovations. In addition, a game
incorporating the results of the workshops was developed. The main
causal mechanisms were translated into the game which can be played
by people who work in health care to improve their understanding of
some of the dynamics involved.

The Use of System Dynamics in Assessing
Nuclear Energy System Futures

Modelling the worldwide nuclear reactor park including all supply
chain details, i.e. the nuclear fuel cycle, demands for an integrated
nuclear energy system model which also includes feedback loops
representing physical feedbacks within the system as well as, and
most prominently, socio-political feedbacks in the decision-making on
the various available deployment pathways for nuclear energy.
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) started in 2000 with the
development of such integrated nuclear energy system models, i.e.
DYMOND and more recently DANESS. These models are based on
system dynamics modelling used in various industry sectors and
allowing to model the full mass-flow chain of time-varying mixes of
nuclear reactor plants and associated fuel cycle options. Several other
sub-models may then be coupled to the mass-flow kernel to calculate
heat loads, economics, life cycle inventory, and several other
parameters and feedback decision-making loops important in the
assessment of nuclear energy futures.

Balancing Supply and Demand for Dementia
Care in the Netherlands

Health care in the Netherlands presents a unique mix of governmental
and private responsibilities. Costs for long-term care, expensive
treatments and uninsurable care for the complete Dutch population are
covered by the Exceptional Medical Expenses Act (AWBZ),
administered by 32 regional offices. Every health care provider
operates under a contract with the regional administration office. Once
contracted services are available, insurers are obliged to reimburse
providers for these services even if they are not used by clients. In the
coming years part of the Dutch health care will be deregulated and
several types of care will be offered under market conditions.
Whereas costs for care capacity are at present reimbursed by the
government, this situation might change in the future. Regional care

23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 145
German Vargas
gevargasg@unal.edu.co

National University of Colombia
Cra 98 a no 33-67

Bogota

Colombia

Robert Verhaeghe
rjverhaeghe@hotmail.com

Delft University of Technology
Stevinweg I

2628CN Delft

‘The Netherlands

Frank M. Sanders
fsanders@citg.tudelfi.nl
Technical University Delft
Postbox 5048

2600 GA Delft

The Netherlands

Nuno Videira

nmvc@fet.unl.pt

New University of Lisbon

Ecoman Centre DCEA-FCT
Quinta da Torre 2829-516 Caparica
Portugal

offices in general have little insight into long-term developments in
supply and demand for health care. This paper describes a system
dynamics study on demand and supply for a specific type of nursing
care, dementia. The model shows how feedback between waiting lists
and volume of different types of demand for care, leads to fluctuations
in required capacity. The feared overshoot in long term nursing
capacity did not materialize in model runs under a range of
environmental scenarios.

Systemic Effectiveness’ Dynamics for
Socioeconomic Development on National
Innnovation System in Colombia

The effects and impacts associated and perceived with the
implementation of National Innovation System — NIS Model have
been broadly argued, each other, by different researches from
National Planning Department in Colombia, that has advanced on the
question, based on results of the national requests: Technological
Development and Manufacturer. Pertinence of question was, then,
justified; nevertheless, the emerging debate was triggered for the
weakness of relations(hips) in the “system”, where specifically the
National Council of Socio Economical Policy advertises about both
“suitable design and right conceived. Nevertheless is weak and denote
deficiencies on operation, reflected in disarticulation of different
sectors and entities in the system”. This paper propose an approaching
focus from systems point of view, and empirical observation from the
social networks for the NIS, which one derivate a typological
mapping and situational that illustrate the articulation degree of the
system, which from build a system dynamics model for the policy
exploration, pointed to stimulate systemic efficiency of NIS (seen as
innovation as articulation).

Investment Dynamics for a Congested
Transport Network with Competition:
Application to Port Planning

The planning of investments for the ports of the North Atlantic range
(Hamburg, Rotterdam, Antwerp, Le Havre, Goia Tauro) face a strong
growth of the market (double over the next 10 years), large economies
of scale, congestion in ports and hinterland connections, and strong
competition for parts of the European hinterland. Several investment
strategies can be followed. The present strategy has resulted in
overcapacity. Modeling allows to trace the dynamic impacts from
alternative strategies.

Building up the Science in the Art of
Participatory Modeling for Sustainability

Following several calls for participation in environmental policy, an
increasing attention is being dedicated to the development of

146 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Maria Paula Antunes
mpa@mail fet.unl,pt
Universidade Nova de Lisboa
DCEA FCT

Quinta da Torre

2829-516 Caparica Portugal

Rui Santos

rfs@fet.unl pt

New University of Lisbon
Ecoman Centre DCEA FCT
Quinta da Torre

2829-516 Caparica Portugal

Karumanchi
Vizayakumar

vizay@hijili.iitkgp.ernet.in

Indian Institute of Technology
Dept of Industrial Engineering and
Mgt

Kharagpur 721302

India

John J. Voyer
voyer@usm.maine.edu

University of Southern Maine
School of Business

96 Falmouth Street PO Box 9300
Portland ME 04104-9300 USA

Susan Chinn
schinn@usm.maine.edu
University of Southern Maine
School of Business

96 Falmouth Street Box 9300
Portland ME 04104-9300 USA

Charlotte Pryor
cpryor@usm.maine.edu
University of Southern Maine
School of Business

96 Falmouth St Box 9300
Portland ME 04104-9300 USA

deliberative platforms for the sustainable governance of our global
village. In this paper, we start by adding perspective on the role of
participatory modeling within a strong participatory vision for
sustainability. We then explore how system dynamics and ecological
economics worldviews interlock in promoting participatory modeling
approaches to environmental decision-making. Focusing on the
synergies between group model-building and mediated modeling,
some lessons from two participatory interventions developed in
Portugal are extracted. The evaluation of the case studies indicates
positive outcomes at the individual and group level, with respect to
learning, reaction, commitment, communication and consensus. The
outcomes at the organizational level are still more limited. Further
research is suggested on the comparison and complementarity
between participatory modeling and other deliberative methods.

Human Resource Development for the
Agricultural Sector in India: A Dynamic
Analysis

The paper describes a system dynamics model developed for dynamic
analysis of human resource for the agricultural sector in different
sources of employment, viz., government, private (including
corporate), academic, financial institutes, non-governmental
organizations, self employment, and others in India. Besides
projecting an overall scenario for continuation of current agricultural
education policy and trends, the paper analyses simulated results from
the model for the current curriculum with 80:20 proportion of
technical to soft skills. The analysis shows that in the coming years
the private sector will emerge as a major employer for the graduates
of agriculture and allied sciences.

Adaptive Leadership Challenges at Smaller
Nonprofit Organizations: A System Dynamics
Approach

Dwindling government resources and demands for increased
accountability have challenged nonprofit organizations to meet their
primary missions while also creating efficient and effective back-
office accounting and information systems. Even though many
nonprofits say that accounting and information support systems are
mission-critical, they tend to staff these systems weakly and to be less
efficient than they could be. The present paper uses a system
dynamics model to show how the “Limits to Growth” and “Shifting
the Burden” systems archetypes help explain this situation. The model
runs show that the exercise of leadership is the underlying issue-
nonprofit managers must challenge organizational cultures and
mindsets that act as limiting factors, causing the nonprofits to avoid
implementing fundamental solutions to their problems. The paper
discusses several action recommendations.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 147
Khaled Wahba

khaled. wahba@riti.org

Cairo University

Faculty of Engineering

11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211

Egypt

Sherif M. Youssef
sherif_m_youssef@yahoo.com
Maastricht School of Management

Khaled Wahba
khaled.wahba@riti.org

Cairo University

Faculty of Engineering

11A Hassan Sabry Street Zamalek
Cairo 11211 Egypt

Fissal Eissa
fisal.eissa@eg.schneider-electric.com
Schneider-Electric

Cairo Egypt

Mohamed Salama
mohamed.salama@alcatel.com.eg
Alcatel Egypt

Cairo Egypt

Wayne Wakeland
wakeland@pdx.edu

Portland State University
Systems Science PhD Program
PO Box 751

Portland OR 97207

USA

Explaining Factors Restraining Egyptian
Tourism Industry Growth & Required Course
of Action: A System Dynamics Approach

The tourism industry is considered a very important factor that
contributes to the economic development Egypt. The industry has
shown growth in the recent years in the number of tourist arrivals to
reach a maximum of 6 million in 2003. It could not be denied that
government efforts contributed to the growth but nevertheless the
devaluation of the pound had a significant influence on the number of
visitors. The performance of the industry might look fine in general.
But, this is if compared to previous performance only. However, if an
in-depth look is taken it is realized that the Egyptian tourism is
performing far below capacity. This paper aims at explaining the way
to improve the performance of the Egyptian tourism industry using a
system dynamics methodology. This will be done by defining the
main factors affecting the industry, then explaining how the whole
system works and finally proposing a new modified model and
required course of action.

The Dynamic Effect of Cluster-Based
Economic Policies on SME Clusters in Egypt

The researchers attempt to visualize the complexity and dynamic
behaviour of SME clusters in Egypt throughout the process of
transferring a cluster’s state from static (idle) to dynamic (productive).
This research constitutes the second of two complementary phases of
a more comprehensive research that tries to quantify the qualitative
measures of dynamic clusters through extending the application of the
business dynamics tool to simulate the effect of different cluster-based
economic development policy scenarios. After developing the mental
model and during the conceptualization phase, the researchers
highlighted the key-leverage causal loops showing feedback effects
and uncovering the hidden cause effect relationships existing between
the most important elements such as trust level inside the cluster,
competition and the number of supporting industries. After validating
the model, the researchers designed the policy analysis runs and
undertook different scenario analysis over a time span of 50 years.
Scenario analysis included studying the effect of elements such as
institutions for collaboration (IFCs) on cooperation; effect of broker
efficiency and success stories on trust building; and effect of trust on
learning.

The Case for Thoroughly Testing Complex
System Dynamics Models
In order to determine whether model testing is as useful as suggested

by modeling experts, the full battery of model tests recommended by
Forrester, Senge, Sterman, and others was applied retrospectively to a

148 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Megan Hoarfrost

meganth@stanford.edu

Wei Yang Wang
wyang@ecc.kuas.edu.tw

National Kaohsiung Univ of Applied
Sei

415 Chien-Kung Road

807 Kaohsiung

Taiwan

Ya-tsai Tseng
ptiseng@mail.thu.edu.tw

Tunghai University

Dept of Business Administration
407 Taichung

Taiwan

Wei-Tsong Wang
ww8256@albany.edu

University at Albany

School of Information Science &
Policy

840 Washington Avenue

Albany NY 12203 USA

Chao-Yueh Liu
chaoyueh.liu@gmail.com
University at Albany
14 Niblock Ct FI 2
Albany NY 12206 USA

complex previously-published system dynamics model. The time
required to carry out each type of test was captured, and the benefits
that resulted from applying each test was determined subjectively. The
resulting benefit to cost ratios are reported. These ratios suggest that
rather than focusing primarily on sensitivity testing, modelers should
consider other types of model tests such as extreme condition tests
and family member tests. The study also finds that all of the different
kinds of tests were either moderately useful or very useful--fully
supporting the recommendations of the experts. An interesting
diagram called a "tornado diagram" is used to portray the results of
the sensitivity testing.

One-

The Dynamics of A Software Hous
Shot Growth

The pattern of one-shot growth is most seen in software industry. The
purpose of this paper is to understand the growth dynamics of a
software house and to facilitate the software house to manage its
growth. This paper models a major domestic ERP software house in
Taiwan that is experiencing the one-shot growth process. Business
type-level packages and high quality service is the company’s secrets
for its success. With a good reputation for high quality systems and
services, the company’s growth strategy is to expand the market it
serves by developing new kinds of packages for more business types.
However, how to balance the human resources requirements of R&D
and ERP is rather difficult when long delays exist everywhere in a
software house. With the system dynamics model built, this paper
identifies the archetype of limits to growth hidden inside the software
house and illustrates how the problem is worsened by the company’s
intuitive reactions.

The Application of the Technology Acceptance
Model: A New Way to Evaluate Information
System Success

In the modern era, the advances in information technology have been
dramatically shaping the ways people live as well as the ways
organizations manage their businesses in their professional business
domains. Implementing various kinds of information systems, such as
Decision Support Systems, has been recognized as one of the most
crucial tasks for organizations in order to continue to be competitive
or even to survive. Although considerable effort has been devoted to
improving the performance of information system implementations,
organizations are still constantly suffering from the failures of
information system implementations. In this study an extensive

framework that depicts the context of information system
implementation is developed. A system dynamics approach is used to
investigate the dynamic nature of information system

implementations. By using the proposed system dynamics model, we
contend, executives and information system professionals of
organizations can gain comprehensive insights into organizational
behaviors and substantial policy-making implications regarding
information system implementations.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 149
Elise Axelrad Weaver
eweaver@wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Dept Social Science and Policy
Studies

100 Institute Road

Worcester MA 01609-2280 USA

Lars Weber
lars.weber@tu-cottbus.de
Brandenburg Technical Univ.
Cottbus

Chair of Macroeconomics

PO Box 101344

03013 Cottbus Germany

Henry Birdseye Weil
weilco@compuserve.com

MIT

Sloan School of Management

50 Memorial Drive Room E52-541
Cambridge MA 02142-1347 USA

Brice A. Dattée

dattee@ecp fr

UC Dublin / Ecole Centrale Paris
96 avenue de Paris

94300 Vincennes France

Flynn's Case for a Different Approach to
Homeland Security

In this paper, I will present relatively simple system dynamics models
which capture some of the insights of a key critic of the U.S. policy
for defending the country, Stephen Flynn. Flynn is especially
concerned with the over-reaction to the attacks of September 11,
2001. He warns of the dangers of shutting down legitimate commerce
and investing in overseas offensive measures as a knee-jerk reaction
to the attacks. It is not that he is advocating a lax approach to security.
Rather he is advocating a measured look at the implications of a
draconian defense policy which may cause much more damage to our
societal infrastructures than the attacks that triggered it. He also
presents recommended solutions.

A Contribution to Goodwin’s Growth Cycle
Model from a System Dynamics Perspective

The, for economists well-known Goodwin model was one of the first
models which tried to combine cyclical behavior and economic
growth. The basis for this is the predator-prey model — a basic
structure for every System Dynamicists. The economic literature
about the Goodwin model is enormous, but so far, it was mostly
concentrate on the mathematical behavior or on some extensions that
could be implemented. In addition, there are only two papers from R.
Solow and D. Harvie about an econometrical verification of the model
and none from a System Dynamics’ perspective. This article provides
therefore two System Dynamics models of Goodwin’s theory and
tests the enhanced one on the German economic situation and on the
data provide by Harvie 2000. Additionally there are some suggested
modifications of the Goodwin model, tested from different authors,
which reveal surprising outcomes for the understanding of Goodwin’s
theory.

Dynamics of Social Factors in Technological
Substitution

Diffusion models of radical technologies are often based on an
epidemic structure developed on the Bass principles of generic
external and internal communications. However, in most cases such
processes involve more complex communication and decision
mechanisms. The diffusion processes should account for
interdependences with other innovations and also the substitution
mechanisms with regard to the technology in place. Substitution must
be understood with a much broader scope than the analytical view of
the Fisher and Pry model. As many diffusion authors have
acknowledged (but partially excluded from their models), diffusion is
a social process with innovation moving through interpersonal
networks. We propose a model that accounts for the dynamics of

150 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Henry Birdseye Weil
weilco@compuserve.com

MIT

Sloan School of Management

50 Memorial Drive Room E52-541
Cambridge MA 02142-1347 USA

James M. Utterback
jmu@mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge MA 02142 USA.

David Wheat

dwheat@wheatresources.com
Virginia Western Community
College

PO Box 19234

Roanoke VA 24019

USA

social factors in technological substitution. Based on the System
Dynamics methodology, our model disaggregates most of the
communication structure and individuals’ characteristics that are
implicitly embedded in traditional diffusion models. Our discussion
starts with the characteristics of radical technological innovations. We
then proceed with the theoretical basis of our social aggregation
approach by presenting Kelly’s personal constructs system theory,
outlines of social psychology, decision making under uncertainty, and
the interdependences between innovations’ characteristics and human
behavior. We also make an attempt at considering both sides
(consumers adoption / competitors imitation) of a substitutive
diffusion. Brice Dattée's research is funded by the National Institute of
Technology Management in Ireland.

The Dynamics of Innovative Industries

This work captures and analyzes the fundamental dynamics of
innovative industries with a System Dynamics model. We selectively
reviewed the innovation literature, identified the dynamics to be
modelled, formulated a conceptual model of these dynamics, and then
developed the initial simulation model. By design the conceptual
model is simple and generic. It is intended to apply to a broad range of
products and services — assembled and process-based, complex and
simple, physical and digital, business and consumer, early stage and
mature, 19th century and 21st century. That is what we mean by the
“fundamental dynamics” of innovative industries. In many variations
and combinations they can explain the evolution of most markets. The
initial simulation model was developed from the conceptual model. It
represents products based on two generations of technology. At this
stage the simulation model does not represent a specific market or
industry. It is quantified with hypothetical inputs, parameters, and
cause/effect relationships. The simulation model recreates well-
documented reference modes of market evolution. We currently are
building the information base which will enable the initial model to be
applied to the photography and display markets.

Simplifying Learning Environments for
Introductory Students

An interactive learning environment (ILE) appropriate for
intermediate macroeconomics students has been simplified for
students in introductory college and high school courses. Without
changing the underlying model or the simulation options, the
simplified instructional approach relies on feedback loop
diagramming more than stock-and-flow diagramming. Interactive
Vensim causal loop diagrams are embedded in a STELLA interface,
using slide show and video software. In addition, students appear to
learn more as model-users if they engage in preliminary model-
building activities using simple word-and-arrow diagrams.

23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA. 151
Anthony S. White
a.white@mdx.ac.uk

Middlesex University

School of Computing Science
Trent Park Bramley Road
Enfield London N14 4YZ UK

Michael Censlive
m.censlive@mdr.ac.uk
Middlesex University

School of Computing Science
Trent Park Bramley Rd
London N14 4YZ UK

Elin Whitney-Smith
elin@quaternary.net

Netalyst Inc

508 2nd St SE Suite 1
Washington DC 20003
USA

Johannes Wiik
johannes.wiik@hia.no
University of Bergen
Stromgaten 32

5008 Bergen
Norway

Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j. gonzalez@hia.no
Agder University College

Faculty of Engineering and Science

Grooseveien 36
NO-4876 Grimstad
Norway

Modelling Strategies for Vendor-Managed
Inventory

This paper describes transform approaches to control Vendor-
Managed Inventory (VMI). The effect of different modelling
techniques and their significance is examined. Modelling was
achieved with the Simulink package using the equations developed by
Disney and Towill for a VMI system model. Analysis of several types
of delay representation were compared to illustrate how the results
depend on their formulation. The effect of using a discrete model is to
deepen the stock-out and increase the required order rate. Analysis of
the stability of the different models are discussed and evaluated. It is
shown that the continuous model with an exponential delay is always
stable and with a fixed delay can be made stable. The requirement for
the system is also computed for a discrete model with exponential
delay. Reduced inventory stock-out and a smaller WIP peak are
achieved with different order smoothing function. This has special
significance for e-manufacture.

The Dynamics of Information Revolutions: A
Causal Loop Model

Information revolutions change the world by taping into a positive
feedback loop. If we can identify the loops we can understand where
they might be going and what their limits might be. We need to know
the difference between a short-term trend and a long term dynamic.
We need to know where this information might be pushing us so we
can know if it is where we want to go. Trying to look at a category, as
broad as information revolutions, to identify patterns requires an
approach that will give a broad but well specified picture — a way to
understand the positive feedback loops that create the growth and also
to understand the countervailing loops that come into play in various
ways. I believe that causal loop diagrams can give us a clearer picture
of this kind of broad, messy problem.

Limits to Effectiveness in Computer Security
Incident Response Teams

In a constantly changing environment, a Computer Security Incident
Response Team (CSIRT) has to evolve over time in order to sustain or
improve its effectiveness. The main task of a CSIRT is to help victims
mitigate the effects of computer security incidents. A frequently
identified problem for a CSIRT is that they are overworked,
understaffed and under funded. In this paper, we present a conceptual
model of such conditions based on a case study. The model is a first
attempt to understand the main factors influencing a CSIRT’s ability
to handle computer security incidents effectively, and to identify ways
to improve their overall effectiveness. Based on theory from process

152. 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
improvement and information from the case study, we have identified
that short-term pressure from a growing incident workload prevents
any attempts for developing more response capability long-term.
Fundamental solutions to solve this problem will typically involve a
worse-before-better trade-off for management.

Ines Winz A System Dynamics Approach to Sustainable

auckland acing
University of Auckland Urban Development

Tamaki Campus 723.312

Glen Innes Auckland The two most important fundamental needs of towns and cities are a

New Zealand sufficient supply of adequate drinking water and the removal of
polluted water. History has shown that if these needs cannot be met,
cities rapidly become uninhabitable. New Zealand's current water
systems were designed and built in the 19th century and have not been
improved much since. Generally, infrastructure has been built on the
assumptions of abundant water resources and the unlimited ability to
treat and dispose of polluted waters. Especially in Auckland, New
Zealand's largest city and one of the most rapidly urbanising cities in
the world, there is increasing tension due to rapid urban growth and
the costs associated with replacing old water infrastructure and
extending it to new urbanised areas. The challenges of managing
urban water systems in New Zealand today call for an application of
system dynamics. Our proposed research is based on the hypothesis
that systems thinking and modelling methodology can be applied to
the question of urban development in the Auckland region and is a
valid instrument to identify policies that effectively foster the
sustainable development of urban structures, in particular urban water
infrastructure. This paper discusses the current situation and
challenges, and outlines the proposed research.

Ellen Wolfe Barriers to SD Deployment in Business and
ewolfe@resero.com . we F
Reseto Consulting Policy Making: Lessons Learned in Assessing
9289 Shadow Brook Place Electric Utility Restructuring Policy
Granite Bay CA 95746

USA

Real-world policy analyses efforts indicate repeated behavioral
patterns that inhibit systems approaches, such as the time and budget
pressures, the trade-off of detail vs. high-level insights, and the
tendency to dwell in the familiar rather than delve into the unrevealed.
Examining “mainstream” (non System Dynamic) business and policy
processes issues such as these seems critical to increasing the
introduction of systems approaches. However, the perspective we as a
community of modelers takes is critical to reinventing business and
policy analyses. To the extent the barriers are seen as circumstances of
the modeling environments there is little leverage towards resolution;
if we can see the impediments as being a result of our behavior as
analysts, the nature of the barriers change and there is much more
opportunity for improvement. The paper examines a non—System
Dynamics policy analysis for the electric utility industry from both
these points of view.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 153
Eric F. Wolstenholme
e.wolstenholme@btinternet.com
Fieldings 12 Rivock Avenue
Steeton Keighley West Yorks BD20
6SA

UK

David Monk
david.monk@olmgroup.com

OLM Consulting

OLM Group Cairns House

10 Station Road

Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA’
UK

Gill Smith
gill.smith@olmgroup.com

OLM Consulting

Cairns House 10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA
UK

Douglas McKelvie
douglas.mckelvie@olmgroup.com
OLM Consulting

Cairns House 10 Station Road
Teddington Middlesex TW11 9AA’
UK

Kaoru Yamaguchi
kaoru3@muratopia.org
Doshisha University

521 Minamidani Aihara
Goshiki-cho Hyogo 656-1325
Japan

Coping but not Coping in Health and Social
Care — Masking the Reality of Running
Organisations beyond Design Capacity

This paper develops a hypothesis that the ‘normal’ mode of operation
for many organisations is well beyond their safe design capacity and
that many health and social care organisations in the UK are in this
position. This situation arises from having to cope with demand,
irrespective of their supply capability. The irony is that such
organisations can appear to cope at the strategic level. This is because
operational managers employ a variety of well-intended, informal,
survival techniques to meet performance targets. However, such
practices can perpetually mask the underlying reality and have serious
unintended consequences . Evidence for the hypothesis has emerged
from a number of studies carried out using system dynamics to
identify and promote systemic practice in local health communities in
the UK. The rigour of quantitative simulation model construction has
identified mismatches between how managers claim their
organisations work and the observed data and behaviour. The
discrepancies can only be explained by surfacing informal coping
strategies. Indeed, the data itself becomes questionable as it reflects
more the actions of managers than the true characteristics of patient
pathways. If proved wholly or even partially correct there are some
important messages in the paper for Health and Social Care
management, the meaning of data and for modelling.

Aggregate Demand Equilibria and Price
Flexibility — System Dynamics Macroeconomic
Modeling

This is a second paper of a series of macroeconomic modeling that
tries to model macroeconomic dynamics such as the determination of
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and money supply from system
dynamics perspective. Following the first paper on the money supply
and creation of deposits, this second paper tries to model dynamic
determination processes of GDP, interest rate and price level on the
same basis of the principle of accounting system dynamics developed
by the author. For this purpose, a simple Keynesian multiplier model
is constructed as a base model to examine a dynamic determination
process of GDP. It is then expanded to incorporate the interest rate,
whose introduction enables the analysis of aggregate demand
equilibria as well as transactions of savings and deposits, and
government debt and securities. Finally, a flexible price is introduced
to adjust an interplay between aggregate demand equilibrium and full
capacity output level. A somewhat surprise result of business cycle is
observed from the analysis.

154 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Hakan Yasarcan
yasarcanh@yahoo.com

25 Sehit Sener Enver Sokak
Yenisehir Lefkosa
TR-09000 via Mersin 10
Turkey

Yaman Barlas
ybarlas@boun.edu.tr

Bogazigi University

Dept of Industrial Engineering
34342 Bebek Istanbul

Turkey

William Young
b52ew@aol.com

US Air Force

5001-G Paddock Club Court
Montgomery AL 36116
USA

Goneng Yiicel
gonenc.yucel
Bogazigi University

Bebek Yolu Sok

Ozkan Polat Ap No 2/5
Etiler 80630 Istanbul Turkey

Stable Stock Management Heuristics when the
Outflow is Proportional to the Control Stock

In this paper, the typical anchor (expected value of the outflow or
expected loss) used in the most popular decision rule of the stock
management modeling, the “Anchoring and Adjustment Rule” is
studied for structures including a decaying stock. A new anchor
(equilibrium value of loss) is proposed and compared with the
expected loss formulation. We demonstrate that equilibrium value of
loss formulation helps bringing the control stock to its desired level
more rapidly. In addition, we show that managing a decaying stock in
a stable way is difficult when the supply line is discrete. Standard
stock adjustment and supply line adjustment terms anchored around
expected loss can yield highly unstable oscillations. Counter-
intuitively, for some cases, ignoring the supply line adjustment term
may completely eliminate unwanted oscillations. If equilibrium value
of loss is selected as the anchor and when the decay time (life time) is
small enough, management of the stock can even be done by ignoring
all the adjustment terms.

Understanding and Diagnosing Adversary
System Behavior in 4th Generation Warfare:
A Soft Approach to EBO Mission Analysis

Effects-based Operations (EBO) is becoming the centerpiece of
Western military thinking. The concept is based on influencing the
behavior of adversary complex adaptive systems (such as terrorist
networks) in dynamic environments. Mission analysis is the
foundation of campaign planning. This paper suggests a process to
improve how campaign planners identify effects necessary to yield a
desired endstate during EBO mission analysis. The process is based
on using a modified version of Soft Systems Methodology to structure
the problem by providing planners a high-level initial understanding
of the dynamic complexity associated with 4th Generation Warfare
threats. Planners use this understanding to identify and diagnose
specific adversary behavior inconsistent with the directed endstate.
Potential system changes to modify problematic behavior are next
identified and debated. Finally, the changes are converted into
“effects” that serve as the input into more detailed planning efforts.
The process uses group learning and shared understanding as a
“hedge” against the ambiguity associated with 21st Century military
planning.

Sustainability in a Bipolar Global System: A
Global Modeling Study with North-South
Differentiation

Traditional global models address important global problems using
highly aggregated measures, but it may be argued that the world is
strongly non-homogeneous at least at some fundamental level:

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 155
Dewi Yuliani
deyul05@hotmail.com

Local Government of West Java
Province

JI Pajajaran 50

Bandung Indonesia

Muhammad Tasrif
ppeith@bdg.centrin.net.id

Bandung Institute of Technology
Energy Research and Development
Group

JI Ganesha 10

Bandung 40132 Indonesia

Aldo A. Zagonel
aazagon@sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 0749
Albuquerque NM 87185-0749
USA

Stephen H. Conrad
shconra@sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories
PO Box 5800 MS 1138
Albuquerque NM 87185
USA

developing (South) nations and developed (North) nations may have
very different, asymmetric problems, goals and structures. This study
aims to investigate these two distinct groups of economies in a context
of global sustainability. We identified population, economic growth,
welfare gap, energy supply and pollution as key issues and analyzed
them in a systems perspective. A dynamic feedback model, which
discriminates these two groups of nations, is constructed based on
WORLD-3 model in order to study the dynamics of key parameters
related to these issues for the period 1975-2050. Simulation
experiments reveal that population characteristics of South and current
mode of economic activity, which is extensively dependent on non-
renewable energy resources constitute serious obstacles for the
sustainability of the system. Hence, stabilizing the population growth
in South, transition to alternative energy resources and investment
support to South for this transition are vital for closing the welfare gap
between blocks and sustaining the global system.

Towards the Understanding of Community
Empowerment Process: Lessons Learned
From a Rural Locality in Indonesia

In developing countries, many community empowerment efforts,
which consist mainly of building the community’s capability to fulfill
its needs, failed to achieve the desired results. Counter-intuitively,
sometimes the dependence to external agents grew even stronger. The
paper is a preliminary attempt in elaborating a successful case of
empowerment process using system dynamics modeling, which is a
poor village in Indonesia that received an infrastructure aid from a
UN-agent in the form of Microhydro Plant. The model shows that
empowerment is a feedback process influenced by many factors, and
that capacity building to manage the plant is a learning process to be
gone through by the community itself. Nonetheless, once this
capability is achieved, the resulted capacity and awareness play
significant role to improve the community’s life quality. This model is
expected to evoke other efforts to build a more comprehensive
understanding of community empowerment process, and hopefully
will encourage the local government to try new approaches for higher
rate of successful implementation.

Modeling the Impact of Loss in U.S. Soybean
Production Resulting from Soy Rust Disease

Our objective is to examine the consequences of soy rust to the U.S.
agriculture in the next 2-5 years. In 2000, the U.S. harvested
approximately 2.8 billion bushels of soybeans from almost 73 million
acres of cropland, accounting for more than 50 percent of the world's
production. The crop generated $12.5 billion dollars, $6.66 billion in
exports. Soy rust established itself in the south last November and is
expected to disseminate and deposit in the crops during this year’s
planting season. The extent of outbreaks depends upon climatic
conditions. Early detection is crucial since soy rust is deadly to the

156 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
soy plant within 48 hours. Monitoring systems will warn farmers of
the presence of the spores and farmers are instructed on how to
identify and treat it. There is uncertainty regarding the sufficient and
timely availability of fungicide. In addition to historical data, we

Paul G. Kaplan
pgkapla@sandia.gov

Sandia National Laboratories
Critical Infrastructure Modeling &

Sim incorporate observations of on going planting and harvesting.
PO Box 5800 MS 1138 Parameter ranges in the model are narrowed as more information
Albuquerque NM 87185-1138 becomes available and existing uncertainties dissipate. The impact of
USA soy rust is analyzed in aggregate, looking at overall production and

market share contrasted against natural noise in the yields.

Agnieszka Ziomek Foreign Direct Investment Impact on Polish
agnieszka.ziomek@ae.poznan.pl _

Poznin University of Economies Labor Market: The Case of Employment
Economic Policy & Development Fluctuation in GSK Pharmaceutical
Planning

Al Niepodleglosci 10 Poznan

60-967 Poznan Poland

Foreign direct investment has a strong impact on the level of
employment and its structure in companies. The article presents the
structure of factors regulating and adjusting the employment scale to
real productivity needs. The presentation is based on one of the best
examples of foreign direct investment in Poland - GlaxoSmithKline
Pharmaceuticals, Joint Stock company. The privatization process is
like a mirror of destabilized economy. The correction of employment
structure inside the company reflects the overall employment
fluctuation in economy and even the structural unemployment
classification. The model built on the GSK example, describes the 8
years long process of employment adjustment and can be recognized
as a benchmark for the employment transition in foreign companies in
Poland.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 157
Plenary Sessions

Plenary Monday AM - Dynamic Modeling for Public Policy

Kimberly Thompson
kimt@alum.mit.edu

Harvard University

School of Public Health

677 Huntington Avenue 3rd Floor
Boston MA 02115

USA

Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens
rduintje@hsph.harvard.edu

Harvard University

School of Public Health

677 Huntington Avenue 3rd Floor
Boston MA 02115

USA

William Manley

bmanley
West Virginia University

Center for Rural Emergency Medicine
PO Box 9151

Morgantown WV 26506

USA

Dhse.wvu.edu

Jack B. Homer
jhomer@comcast.net
Homer Consulting
3618 Avalon Court
Voorhees NJ 08043
USA

Marna Hoard
mhoard@osophs.dhhs. gov

Office of the US Surgeon General
Center for Medical Preparedness
PO Box 9151

Morgantown WV 26506-9151
USA

Modeling Global Policy for Managing
Polioviruses: An Analytical Journey

The success of the Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring
the world the benefits of sustained improvements in quality of life
(i.e., cases of paralysis and deaths avoided) and saved costs from
cessation of vaccination. Obtaining these benefits requires that
policy makers manage both the transition from the current massive
use of oral polio vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and the
sks of potential future reintroductions of polioviruses. In 2001,
we began a case study on retrospective polio risk management to
demonstrate the importance of using a dynamic disease model to
correctly estimate the cost-effectiveness of vaccines. Discussions
with the CDC about the case study led to an opportunity for us to
develop a large model to support the prospective decision making
process. This paper tells the story of our journey, emphasizing
insights about the requirements for analysts to create tools that
really help high-level decision makers.

A Dynamic Model to Support Surge
Capacity Planning in a Rural Hospital

A system dynamics model was developed to help hospitals assess
their ability to handle surges of demand during various types of
disasters. The model represents all major flows of patients through
a hospital and indicates how specific responses to a surge may
ameliorate bottlenecks and their potentially harmful effects on
patients. The model was calibrated to represent a specific hospital
in West Virginia and was tested under three quite different surge
scenarios: a bus crash, a chemical plant leak, and a SARS
outbreak. Under the difficult conditions of the SARS scenario,
avoidable deaths of patients awaiting emergency care could be
effectively reduced by adding reserve nursing staff not in the
emergency department, as might be expected, but in the overloaded
inpatient wards. The model can help hospital planners better
anticipate how patient flows may be affected by disasters, and
identify best practices for maximizing the hospital’s surge capacity
under such conditions.

158 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA

Sanjoy Roy

sroy@hsc.wvu.edu

West Virginia University

Center for Rural Emergency Medicine
PO Box 9151

Morgantown WV 26506

USA

Paul M. Furbee
pmfurbee@hse.wvu.edu

West Virginia University

Center for Rural Emergency Medicine
PO Box 9151

Morgantown WV 26506

USA

Todd BenDor

bendor@uiue.edu
University of Illinois
111 Temple Buell Hall
611 Taft Drive
Champaign IL 61820
USA

Sara Metcalf

ssm@uiuc.edu

Uniy of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Dept of Geography Rm 220 Davenport
607 South Mathews Avenue

Urbana IL 61801-3671

USA

Lauren E. Fontenot
University of Illinois
Department of Geography
Urbana IL 61801

USA

Brandi Sangunett
University of Illinois

Dept of Natural Resources and
Env Sci

Urbana IL 61801

USA

Daniel Summers
dsummers@hsc.wvu.edu

West Virginia University

Center for Rural Emergency Medicine

Marsha Kimble
mkimble@stj.net

St Joseph's Hospital
Center for Rural

PO Box 9151 Emergency Medicine

Morgantown WV 26506 PO Box 9151

USA Morgantown WV 26506
USA

Robert Blake

trblake@earthlink.net

St Joseph's Hospital

Center for Rural Emergency Medicine
PO Box 9151

Morgantown WV 26506

USA

A Decision Support System for Emerald Ash
Borer Eradication Using Spatial-Dynamic
Modeling

Recently, an invasive Asian beetle known as the Emerald Ash
Borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis Coleoptera: Buprestidae) has
emerged as a threat to Ash trees in the Midwestern United States
and Canada (McCullough and Katovich 2004). Significant
infestations in Michigan and nearby areas have all but doomed
nearly one billion native ash trees. This paper presents an argument
for the establishment of a widely accessible knowledgebase of
information on the EAB’s spread capabilities. We argue that
spatial dynamic modeling stands as a flexible and powerful
decision support system platform. We present initial simulations of
EAB spread scenarios constructed using tree information and land
use data collected for DuPage County, IL, an uninfected suburban
county in the Chicago metropolitan area. These simulations test
policies focused on impeding the costly spread of the beetle. This
analysis also presents a framework for further studies ing the
economic impacts on municipalities and counties due to tree
removal costs and aesthetic damage. Our work points to human
driven movement as the major vector for EAB spread throughout
our study area. Here, the focus falls on the ability of state and
county implemented firewood quarantines to act as effective
policies for slowing EAB spread.

Plenary Monday PM - System Dynamics in Action

Nick Pudar
nick,pudar@gm.com
OnStar

Mail Code 482-D39-D68
400 Renaissance Center
Detroit MI 48265-4000
USA

Mark Paich, Discussant

Corporate Strategy Development — Making
OnStar Happen

The chasm between great strategic ideas and the actual
implemented results is littered with mountains of irrelevant
Powerpoint presentations and the battle wounds of those who have

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 159
Vincent P. Barabba
vbarabba@sbeglobal.net
Market Insight Corporation
308 Cherry Avenue
Capitola CA 95010

USA

Winston P. Ledet
wpledet@mfg-game.com
Ledet Enterprises Inc
7702 FM 1960 East
Suite 226

Humble TX 77346

USA

Paul A. Monus
monuspa@bp.com

BP Solar

Frederick MD 21701-5896
USA

Tony Cardella

tony@dpef.com

Warren Burgess
BP Exploration
Aberdeen UK

fought the organization’s antibodies that resist change. Successful
implementation of strategic initiatives requires the paradoxical
alignment of a disciplined, sequential strategy development
approach with a serendipitous, emergent, and iterative free flow of
ideas. And, the larger and more complex an organization is, the
more challenging the change efforts become. General Motors is
one such large company, and is the setting for discussing
successful strategy development through the OnStar case study.

At this luncheon, Nick Pudar and Vince Barabba will explore the
challenges and opportunities organizations face in developing and
implementing successful strategic initiatives. The early days in
deciding whether to launch the OnStar business was fraught with
uncertainty. After the initial launch, GM faced another big
decision to significantly ramp up the business across the entire
portfolio. Nick and Vince will identify the key factors that were
addressed in maneuvering the complex, cross-functional strategic
issues that GM faced. They will focus on the techniques that
enabled creative solutions while at the same time maintaining
implementation discipline.

Modeling Sustainable Organizational
Change — Why Did Change at BP Lima
Sustain While the Change at DuPont Faded
Away?

We are attempting to create an agent based System Dynamics
model of sustainable organizational change. A framework is
proposed for comparing the experience of sustainable
organizational change as a means of gathering other experiences to
help create the model. A significant sustainable organizational
change was created at BP's Lima refinery using The Manufacturing
Game that was created at DuPont using a System Dynamics model
of manufacturing reliability. While this change at BP Lima has
survived for over 10 years, two changes of ownership and four sets
of management, the changes at DuPont and another BP asset only
lived 7 years and 1 year before losing the momentum of the
change. At the conclusion of this talk, we will have a panel
discussion on the reasons for sustainability with audience
participation.

Plenary Tuesday AM — Learning From Experiments

Shayne Gary
sgary@agsm.edu.au
University of New South Wales

Australian Graduate School of Mgt

PO Box 6576
Sydney NSW 1466
Australia

Discussant to be announced

Mental Models, Decision Making, and
Performance in Complex Tasks
Previous studies have used the mental models construct as an ex-

post explanation for poor performance on complex tasks, but the
effects have remained untested. This experimental study measured

160 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Robert E. Wood
r.wood@econ.usyd.edu.au
University of Sydney
Sydney NSW 2042
Australia

Klaus-Ole Vogstad
Klausv@stud.ntnu.no
Vogstadforskning
Osloveien 6

N-7018 Trondheim
Norway

Santiago Arango
santiago.arangoQifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Information Science

PO 7800

N-5020 Bergen

Norway

Hans Ivar Skjelbred
Skjelbred Consulting

and tested the role of mental models in a complex decision
environment. Participants worked on a product lifecycle simulation
under one of two levels of complexity for three blocks of 40 trials
before measures of mental models were assessed. Immediately
following the measures, participants completed another three
blocks of 40 trials. Ten weeks later, participants completed another
three blocks of 40 trials each. The results indicate that ability and
task complexity are significant predictors of mental model
accuracy, and that mental model accuracy and complexity are
significant predictors of performance. Mental model accuracy is
also related to the decision heuristics employed on the task, and the
decision heuristics are related to performance. The results suggest
there is potential to increase performance in complex decision
environments by up to 50% through improving decision making.
Validating these measures of mental model accuracy will enable
researchers to incorporate this variable into their study designs in
future research, and begin to identify levers for improving causal
inferences, mental model accuracy, decision heuristics and
performance.

Experimental Economics for Market Design

This study reports of an experimental economics analysis of the
new proposed Swedish-Norwegian tradable green certificate
market (TGC). The green certificate market is a financial
instrument to stimulate renewables within the context of
liberalized, transnational electricity markets (a kind of market-
oriented subsidy scheme). Green certificates are financial assets
issued to green producers that can be traded freely. Previous
system dynamics studies showed that trading- and investment
behaviour were critical factors in analyzing the market dynamics.
As a follow-up, this experimental economics study conducted 14
laboratory experiments with about 10 to 20 students per session. A
particular feature is that participants handle both short-term trading
and long-term investments, which allow us to analyze the interplay
between these types of decisions without imposing behavioural
assumptions on the model. The laboratory experiment shows that
the market is likely to crash, due to the long time delays of supply
side adjustment. The study provided new insights concerning
agents trading and investment strategies, in particular the
performance of various market designs. The mix of trading
strategies employed in response to the experiments, are difficult to
understand and capture in an SD model.

Plenary Tuesday PM - Growth, Wealth, and Sustainability

Michael R. Goodman

hmichaelgoodman@yahoo.com

Michael Goodman & Associates

14 Church Street
Hopkinton MA 01748
USA

Discussant to be announced

Special Moments - Special Places

Cormorant fisherman on the Li River, China.... Farmers tilling the
rice terraces of Bali, Indonesia... A red seahorse in the waters of St
Vincent in the Southern Caribbean... Alpenglow in the Dolomite
mountains of Northern Italy... these are some of the remarkable

23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA. 161
Eric Beinhocker
McKinsey & Company

Dennis Meadows
lataillede@aol.com

Laboratory for Interactive Learning
PO Box 844

Durham NH 03824

USA

moments and amazing places that I have been privileged to
photograph in my world travels and am delighted to share with
you. They are all part of the wonderful but fragile systems that
make up our world.

The Origin of Wealth

“What is economic value?” and its corollary “how is value
created?” are two of the oldest and most fundamental questions in
economics. Yet the equilibrium based theories that have dominated
economics for the past century have struggled to answer these
questions. In particular, equilibrium theories have a difficult time
accounting for the creation of novelty, complex structure, and
knowledge in the economy. Eric Beinhocker will discuss how
ideas from evolutionary theory and complexity science can be
applied to these questions to yield new insights, and he will outline
an evolutionary theory of economic design. He will also examine
the strengths and limitations of the system dynamics perspective on
this subject. The talk is drawn from Beinhocker’s book, The Origin
of Wealth: How Evolution Creates Novelty, Knowledge, and
Growth in the Economy, forthcoming from Harvard Business
School Press, spring 2006.

Sustainable Development System Dynamics

The phrase, "Sustainable Development," has been used to
designate so many different goals and justify so many different
policies that it has lost its meaning. Normally it is used to specify a
destination or state of society. But in fact, it is much more related
to how one makes the trip; to the long-term dynamics of a system.
Dennis Meadows will draw on 33 years of research on the causes
and consequences of growth in a finite world to talk about the
features of a system that is developing sustainably and to describe
the policy implications of modern society's addiction to
unsustainable development.

Plenary Wednesday PM — Modeling for Development

Matteo Pedercini
matteo@threshold21.com
Millennium Institute

2200 Wilson Blvd Ste 650
Arlington VA 22201

USA

Gerald O. Barney
gbarney@threshold2I.com
Millennium Institute

2200 Wilson Boulevard Suite 650
Arlington VA 22201

USA

Dynamic Analysis of MDG Interventions:
The Ghana Pilot

The UN Millennium Project (MP) team has conducted a
comprehensive cross-country analysis of the interventions and
investments required to achieve the Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs) . The MP needs-assessment focuses on a number of
pilot developing countries, selected on the basis of their low per
capita incomes, geographic and political diversity, and record of
sound governance. In its analysis, the MP team developed a series
of spreadsheet-based models that are used to calculate the cost for
the interventions required to achieve the MDGs in the pilot

162. 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
countries . MP methodology is very practical and rich in specific
details, but since it relies on exogenous assumptions for economic
and demographic growth, it cannot address two issues of interest:
(1) the impact of the MDG-related interventions on the economic
and demographic development of the country under study and (2)
the possible synergies and dissynergies among different MDG
interventions. The work described in this paper complements and
builds on the work of the MP team by addressing these two
important issues and evaluating their implications for MDGs
costing and financing. The analysis for this paper was prepared
using the Threshold 21 (T21) integrated development model from
the Millennium Institute.

Gary B. Hirsch SymBanc™: A Simulator for Microfinance
gbhirsch@comcast.net Instituti

Creator of Leaming Environments nstitutions

7 Highgate Road

Wayland MA 01778 Microfinance institutions (MFIs) provide credit, savings, and other
USA financial services to the poor and must successfully manage large

volumes of small transactions. SymBanc™ is a system dynamics
simulator designed to introduce students to the complexities of
managing a Microfinance Institution (MFI) or to engage
experienced practitioners in a discussion of the key determinants of

Guy Stuart
guy_stuart@harvard.edu
Harvard University

Jay K. Rosengard success in such a dynamic environment. The simulator allows
jay_rosengard@harvard.edu students and practitioners to grow an MFI from a single branch to a
Harvard University large network by making a variety of decisions about target
Don E. Johnston market, staffing and facilities, loan and savings product design, and
donjohnst@yahoo.com sources of external funding. Detailed feedback enables them to

Harvard University fine-tune their strategies during a simulation. This paper begins
with some background on Microfinance Institutions and then
presents the structure of the model underlying SymBanc™ and
results of typical simulations. Initial experience using SymBanc™
and future enhancements contemplated for it are also described.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 163
Special and Convened Sessions

Deborah Campbell
deborah-campbell@comcast.net
University of Bergen

1569 Vireo Avenue
Sunnyvale CA 94087

USA

Peter S. Hovmand
phovmand@wustl.edu

Washington University in St Louis
GWB School of Social Work

One Brookings Drive Campus Box
Saint Louis MO 63130

USA

1196

Kenneth G. Cooper
ken.cooper@paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group

1 Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

Thomas G. Kelly
tom.kelly@paconsulting.com

PA Consulting Group

One Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

Exhibitor Demonstrations

Exhibitor demonstrations will be held during the lunch breaks on
Monday and Tuesday to showcase products and services in
practice.

Users’ Group Meetings

Fun and useful, informal meetings held by different software
vendors to give users an opportunity to share ideas and ask
questions.

Diversity Roundtable

Society membership has grown by over 40% from 1999, but the
representation of women has remained flat at 12%. Thus, in July
2004 the Policy Council unanimously approved the formation of a
committee to work on tracking and improving the diversity of the
System Dynamics Society. Last October, a pilot diversity survey
was included in the annual membership renewals. In the course of
developing the survey, members raised important questions about
how diversity should be defined for the System Dynamics Society.
More importantly, the initial results suggested potential solutions.
Both issues raised questions that need to be discussed. How should
diversity be defined with respect to the System Dynamics Society?
How does diversity affect participation at conferences and in the
society? What are some possible solutions? Please join us in this
roundtable discussion on diversity in the System Dynamics
Society.

Program Management Workshop

The aerospace, IT, and construction industries have seen a
significant shift over the past few years from "cost-plus" contracts
(where "every change is good", and means more revenue), toward
"fixed-price" or "ceiling value" contracts (where the cost of every
change must be negotiated with the customer or traded off against
other work). The disruptive effects of these changes are
substantial, but are universally poorly (and under-) estimated. The
result has been unexpected cost overruns, lost profits, and disputes.
This workshop will combine lecture and group exercise to teach
valuable lessons about project disruption dynamics. In the session

164 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA

Sharon A. Els
sharon.els@paconsulting.com

PA Consulting Group

One Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

Sharon A. Els
sharon.els@paconsulting.com

PA Consulting Group

One Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142

USA

Jose J. Gonzalez
jose.j.gonzalez@,
Agder University College

Faculty of Engineering and Science
Grooseveien 36

NO-4876 Grimstad

Norway

shia.no

Jack B. Homer

jhomer@comeast.net
Homer Consulting
3618 Avalon Court
Voorhees NJ 08043 USA

you will learn how change impacts spread to disrupt a project's
performance and learn some mitigations to reduce or avoid the
disruptive impacts of changes. For further information please
contact Tom Kelly at tom.kelly@paconsulting.com.

Business Roundtable

A panel of business and industry practitioners will describe how
they have and hope to use system dynamics in their organizations.
They will discuss which issues they have addressed with system
dynamics and also share their perspective on what have been their
biggest challenges and most significant successes.

Critical Infrastructure

The session consists of four papers: Real Time Diagnostics of
Problem-Solving Behavior for System Dynamics-Based Business
Simulations; Sensitivity Analysis of an Infectious Disease Model;
Leveraging a High Fidelity Switched Network Model to Inform a
System Dynamics Model of the Telecommunications
Infrastructure; and Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision
Support System. The first paper concerned supporting learning in
and about complex problems. The paper describes the diagnostics
of the problem solving process, i.e. of the information-retrieval and
decision-making processes, as prerequisite for effective
“feedback” to the learner. The second paper describes a model of
infectious diseases that has been developed for integration within a
larger simulation structure to assess the interdependencies of
critical infrastructures. This paper presents the preliminary
sensitivity analyses of the effects of inputs to the infectious disease
model on the calculated consequences. The third paper
summarizes the results of a collaborative effort with Bell
Laboratories, Lucent Technologies to leverage a detailed switched
network simulation to inform the telecommunications system
dynamics model in a Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision
Support System (CIP/DSS). The fourth paper describes CIP/DSS
and simulates the dynamics of individual infrastructures and
couples separate infrastructures to each other according to their
interdependencies.

Fifth Annual Modeling Assistance
Workshop
Modeling assistance is available at the conference to enable

modelers to discuss their specific modeling questions with
modeling coaches. Modeling assistance opportunities include two

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 165
Roderick H. MacDonald
rod@isdps.org

Initiative for SD in the Public Sector
60 Oakwood Street

Albany NY 12208 USA

Jack B. Homer
jhomer@comcast.net
Homer Consulting
3618 Avalon Court
Voorhees NJ 08043
USA

Dennis Meadows
lataillede@aol.com

Laboratory for Interactive Learning
PO Box 844

Durham NH 03824

USA

public workshops, as well as the possibility of assistance at any
time during the conference. Assistance is available for modelers
with all levels of modeling ability, from beginner to advanced,
with questions about a specific model that modelers are developing
or studying, or to better understand something in a book, an article,
or a software package. Modeling questions may deal with problem
articulation, formulation of a dynamic hypothesis, formulation of a
simulation model, model testing, or policy design and evaluation.
Modelers should bring whatever materials they need to describe
their question,including pencil and paper, books, posters, or laptop
computers. Spectators are welcome to observe modeling assistance
during the two public sessions.

HPSIG: Health System Reform Meeting

The members of the Health Policy SIG agreed at the Oxford
conference in 2004 to begin a collaborative effort to examine
national health care system reform from an SD perspective. The
first product of this collaboration is a paper being presented at one
of this year’s parallel sessions, entitled “Achieving health care
reform in the United States: Toward a whole-system
understanding.” The paper includes a series of causal loop
diagrams laying out an initial theory of why reform efforts have
largely failed in the U.S. and outlining the characteristics of more
effective reform. This paper was recently distributed to all HPSIG
members for their comments, and also to some U.S. health system
experts from outside SD. During the special Sunday afternoon
session we will review the comments we have received and also
hear directly from a few of the outside experts who are able to join
us in person. We will also look to non-U.S. HPSIG members for
an international perspective, and talk about how we can best
expand our collaboration both internally and externally during the
year to come.

Systems Thinking Playbook Workshop

Many teachers and consultants have found that the 30 short games
and exercises in the Systems Thinking Playbook provide an
extremely effective way to illustrate important points about
paradigms, system structure, and system behavior. Plus they are
fun, and they help people become more comfortable working and
talking together. This book by Linda Booth-Sweeney and Dennis
Meadows has been translated into several languages, and it is used
around the world. Now that it is accompanied by a two-hour DVD
video, illustrating good practice in introducing and operating each
exercise, the text has become useful even for those with no
previous experience in the use of didactic games. In this special,
evening session Dennis Meadows will describe principles for
incorporating short games into more traditional teaching: he will
prescribe criteria for using the games; and then he will demonstrate
a number of the more useful exercises, playing them with
workshop participants.

166 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Oleg V. Pavlov
opavlov@wpi.edu

Worcester Polytechnic Institute
100 Institute Rd

Worcester MA 01609

USA

Morten Ruud
morten.ruud@siktnet
SIKT AS
Eidesaasen 103
N-5750 Odda
Norway

Peter M. Senge
psenge@mit.edu

Society for Organizational Learning
25 First St Ste 414

Cambridge MA 02141 USA

Lees N. Stuntz
stuntzin@clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
27 Central Street

Acton MA 01720 USA

Diana Fisher
dfisher25@verizon.net
Wilson High School

7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008 USA.

Mary Scheetz
orscheetz@aol.com

The Waters Foundation
2231 N Flint

Portland OR 97218 USA

Economic Dynamics Roundtable

The economic roundtable will bring together people interested in
the interface between economics and system dynamics. We will
lay out a research agenda for the future, as well as share
information and ideas about professional activities.

Military Roundtable

The Military Roundtable is the arena for sharing ideas and
experiences on the application of System Dynamics to military
problems. The list of topics includes, for example: strategy
development; force-on-force analysis; war-gaming; military
decision making; training of military decision makers; including
command-post exercises; preparedness studies; human resource
management; development and management of military capability;
management of materiel acquisition; military logistics modelling;
in-service management. We suggest the following main topic for
this year's meeting: "SDM as a tool to support training and
exercise". Opportunities exist for participants to provide update on
recent research and consulting activities, to discuss opportunities
for the future and challenges that confront those working in or
having an interest in system dynamics modelling (SDM) in
military context. We will continue the work on assembling a
compendium of models and readings on SDM in defence.

Roundtable: Open Conversation with
Educators Roundtable

Effective citizenship for the 21st Century calls for young people
adept at understanding a world of growing interdependence and
multiculturalism. This means new intellectual foundations for
understanding complexity and new learning skills for building
shared understanding of complex issues like sustainability. Yet
most of our schools remain much as they have long been, with
sharply demarked subject matters and public education policies
that stiffen these disciplinary identities. The result is that even
older students have little mastery of understanding of the critical
problems shaping their world. New educational outcomes require
new educational systems - not just "school systems" in the
traditional bureaucratic use of the word but learning communities
within and beyond the school that can affect all aspects of
children's lives. Peter will share information and _ invite
conversation around current work to develop a network of
innovative school systems pioneering a multi-layer view of
curricular, institutional and community innovation.

23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 167
Birgitte Snabe
birgitte@snabe.net
Mannheim University
Schloss Industrieseminar
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany

Markus Salge

salgem@is. bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Schloss Industrieseminar
D-68131 Mannheim
Germany

Warren W. Tignor
tignorw@saic.com

SAIC

472 Cornwall Court
Severna Park MD 21146
USA

PhD Colloquium

The 5th International Ph.D. Colloquium is an event of the System
Dynamics Student Chapter. The objective of the colloquium is to
bring together Ph.D. Students working on foundations, techniques,
tools, and applications of System Dynamics and give them the
opportunity to present and discuss their research in a constructive
and international atmosphere. The Colloquium will also provide an
opportunity for student participants to interact with established
faculty and others in the wider system dynamics community. The
diversity and the interactive setting should provide a unique
learning opportunity for all participants of the colloquium. This
year, the all-day colloquium will open with a speech given by
Professor Repenning. The colloquium will consist of number of
sessions with oral presentations followed up by parallel
workshops, as well as a large poster session in the afternoon. We
have received more that 20 submissions and we believe and hope it
will be an interesting day with many fruitful discussions.

Peer Review Dialog

System Dynamics does an excellent peer review of articles. This
year, eeing the reviewers’ comments and suggestions online was
especially welcomed feedback. The additional benefit of initiating
a dialog with the reviewers was a bonus. However, there is always
room for improvement. Your thoughts and ideas are welcomed to
help us continue to improve our peer review process. Please
consider joining a dialog at our Boston meeting to further explore
the peer review process. Your presence and ideas are welcome.
Some thoughts for consideration are as follows: 1. Need the peer
review process start and end so abruptly? Should the reviewer and
writer continue the dialog post the society meeting if mutually
agreed? Should a reviewer mentor this process? 2. Are there
submissions for review that could be enhanced and offered to other
venues for publication, and thus improve recognition for the
System Dynamics Society? Should a reviewer mentor this process?
3. Could a practitioners develop a business methodology from
theory presented in a peer reviewed paper, or could academics
proved theoretical underpinnings for a practical approach
presented? Should a reviewer facilitate this process? If you are
interested in discussing these peer review ideas or others, please
consider joining an informal meeting!

168 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Wayne Wakeland
wakeland@pdx.edu

Portland State University
Systems Science PhD Program
PO Box 751

Portland OR 97207 USA

Jeff Furman
Boston University

Scott F. Rockart
srockart@duke.edu

Duke University

Fuqua School of Business
Box 90120

Durham NC 27708 USA

Fernando Suarez
Boston University

Giovanni Gavetti
Harvard Business School

Scott F. Rockart
srockart@duke.edu

Duke University

Fuqua School of Business
Box 90120

Durham NC 27708 USA.

Alva Taylor
Tuck School of Business

Michael Tushman
Harvard Business School

Environmental Dynamics Roundtable:
Environmental Dynamics -- What is it?

A discussion, with panelists representing different perspectives,
facilitated to encourage full participation by everyone present. The
field of inquiry dubbed environmental dynamics (ED) includes a
broad range of interests, many with differing views of the
ecological world. These include, for example, purely ecological
studies involving the interactions of organisms and their natural
environment, technical studies of the effects of human activities on
the environment and different methods employed to limit or
counteract those effects, big picture analysis of the human-
influenced world and the direction it is headed, plus many others.
Popular topics often associated with ED include: “environmental
regulation,” “the ecocosm dilemma,” “the oil crisis,” “global
warming,” “environmental limits [to growth],” etc. The roundtable
will explore the relationships among these different topics,
emphasizing the role of system dynamics. The goals will be to
establish common ground, to create useful distinctions, and to help
organize the ED endeavor.

Environmental Effects on Entry Decisions
Scott Rockart, Discussant

This and Cognition, Innovation and Strategy are designed to
strengthen the connections between system dynamics research (and
researchers) and the broader strategy research community. Two
papers will focus on how the external environment influences a
firm’s strategy. Fernando Suarez will discuss research on how
environmental dynamics influence first mover advantage; Jeff
Furman, on how national regulatory environments and firm
characteristics influence product entry in the global pharmaceutical
industry. Scott Rockart, will discuss opportunities and approaches
to connect and leverage these and other environmental perspectives
from strategy research with system-dynamics-based research.

Cognition, Innovation and Strategy
Scott Rockart, Discussant

This and Environmental Effects on Entry Decisions are designed to
strengthen the connections between system dynamics research (and
researchers) and the broader strategy research community. Three
papers will focus on innovation and cognitive processes of
. Giovanni Gavetti will discuss research on the role of
cognition in strategy; Alva Taylor, on innovation, learning and
internal competition in new product development; Michael
Tushman, on innovation streams. Scott Rockart, will conclude with
an overview of opportunities and approaches for system-dynamics-
based research and researchers to connect with and leverage the
work of these strategy scholars and related work in strategy.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 169
Workshops

Andrei Borshchev
andrei@xjtek.com

XJ Technologies

21 Polytechnicheskaya St Office 102
St Petersburg 194021

Russia

Nathaniel Osgood
nosgood@mit.edu

MIT

77 Massachusetts Ave Rm 1-376
Cambridge MA 02139

USA

Geoff McDonnell
gmedonne@bigpond.net.au
University of New South Wales
382 Bronte Road

Bronte NSW 2024

Australia

Mark Paich
m.paich@att.net

Decisio Consulting Inc
201 Linden Street 3202
Fort Collins CO 80524
USA

Jim Duggan
jim.duggan@nuigalway.ie

National University of Ireland Galway
Department of Information Technology
University Road

Galway Ireland

Agent-Based Modeling: Why Bother?

There is increasing interest in combining agent based (AB) and
system dynamics (SD) modeling methods. This workshop will
demonstrate the differences between the AB and SD approaches
using some popular examples from the Dynamics of Contagion
and the Diffusion of Innovation, using the AnyLogic multi-
method software. It will also walk through some practical
examples of the use of combined methods in health, marketing
and other industries. The workshop will conclude with a "warts
and all" panel discussion involving experienced SD practitioners
and academics who are adding AB methods to their work.

Hazhir Rahmandad Sara Metcalf
hazhir@mit.edu ssm@uiuc.edu
MIT Univ of Illinois Urbana-

Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-354A
Cambridge MA 02139

USA

Champaign, Dept of Geog.
Rm 220 Davenport

607 South Mathews Avenue
Urbana IL 61801-3671 USA

Mark Heffernan Christopher Johnson

mheffernan@evanspeck.com.au
Intl. System Dynamics Pty Ltd
20B/390 Eastern Valley Way
East Roseville NSW 2069

johnsonch@erd.ge.com
GE Global R&D

PO Box 8 Room KWC 277
Schenectady NY 12301

Australia USA

Exploring Optimal Trade-Offs in a Two-
Actor Beer Game Model

Multiple Objective Optimisation (MOO) is a proven technique
that can be employed by systems dynamicists as they seek to
optimise parameters in simulation models. MOO employs genetic
algorithms and Pareto-based ranking to find non-dominating sets
of optimal solutions to problems that have more than one
objective. The aim of this workshop is to: (1) Explain the multiple
objective optimisation approach; (2) Show, though an interactive
simulation model, how it can be applied to a popular system
dynamics model (a two actor version of the beer game); (3) To
explore with participants answers to a number of questions,
including: (a) What kind of benefits can MOO bring over
traditional optimisation approaches? (b) How do modellers decide
on the appropriate payoff function? (c) How do decision makers
approach the dilemmas of trading off two objectives? All
participants will have access to a special purpose simulation
application (Windows based) that will allow them to run
simulations and optimisations on the two-agent beer game.

170 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Diana Fisher
dfisher25@verizon.net
Wilson High School

7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008
USA

Will Glass-Husain
welass@forio.com

Forio Business Simulations
2320 Jones Street

San Francisco CA 94133
USA

Modeling Dynamic Systems: Lessons for a
First Course

"Modeling Dynamics Systems: Lessons for a First Course"
provides a set of materials that enable educators at the secondary
and college levels to teach a one-semester or one-year course in
System Dynamics modeling. These lessons are also useful for
trainers in a business environment. Developed for beginning
modelers, the lessons contained in this book can be used for a
core curriculum or for independent study. Systems Thinking
software like STELLA offers an opportunity to create visual
models that actively engage students in the study of a wide variety
of problems. Creating a model allows for "real-time" analysis of
dynamic behavior and a more stimulating environment in which
to glean insight. The lessons include some of the classic System
Dynamics problems (population change, resource sustainability,
drug pharmacokinetics, spread of an epidemic, urban growth, and
more). Developed over 14 years, the lessons in this book provide
an easy-to-use set of teaching materials that are paced gently
enough for novice modelers. Students learn to create
progressively more sophisticated models, testing their structures
as they proceed. Feedback analysis is integral to the lessons.
Guidelines for an independent project and an outline for a
technical paper explaining the creation process and structure of
the final model, together with scoring guides for both the model
and the paper, are included. A set of student lessons, a teacher's
guide with all the answers to the student lessons (and additional
comments to the instructor), as well as a CD containing all of the
models, is provided with the book. Participants in the workshop
will have a chance to build some simple models and gain a sense
of the progression leading to a more sophisticated model. Student
work will be demonstrated and a CD containing samples of
student work and their technical papers will be provided to all
participants.

Making your Simulation Run on the World
Wide Web

This workshop discusses how advances in technology allow
modelers to develop and share their own dynamic simulations on
the web. New tools have made creating web interfaces to system
dynamics models simpler and inexpensive, but model developers
still face hurdles developing web simulations because of the
design expectations of Web users. Simulations that run in web
browsers have the advantages of global accessibility, simple
distribution, and the ability to monitor simulation usage.
However, simulations previously delivered in other formats need
to be modified in order to effectively use the online medium.
Simulations need to engage the user, be simple to navigate, and
correspond to the user's learning objectives. This workshop will

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA. 171
Franc Grimm
grimm@consideo.de
Consideo GmbH
Seelandstrasse 1a
23569 Luebeck
Germany

H6rdur V. Haraldsson
hordur.haraldsson@chemeng.lth.se
Lund University

Department of Chemical Engineering
PO Box 124

22100 Lund

Sweden

James H. Hines
jhines@sloan.mit.edu

MIT

81 Hazard Avenue

Suite 1600

Providence RI 02906 USA

consist of presentation and a hands on workshop. During the
presentation, Will Glass-Husain will demonstrate how to create
web simulations and discuss commonly occurring web simulation
design challenges and potential solutions. The session will also
include a hands-on session where participants will create a paper
outline of potential simulation design for a model of their
choosing.

How to make System Dynamics Applicable
for Business and Politics? - Best Practice
Approach

System Dynamics is one of the most promising methods to solve
complex problems in business and politics. In spite of the
development of different simulation tools and approaches in the
past, System Dynamics is still not in wide use. How come?? What
are the main barriers for applying SD in business and politics??
How to overcome them?? This questions were the main driving
forces for initiating a new international research & development
project called "Decision Support" (carried out by Lund
University, University of Luebeck, Technology Centre Luebeck
and CONSIDEO; www.decision-support.info ) aiming at building
up a network in which researchers, educators, consultants,
software engineers and providers, methodologist, and
practitioners (political and entrepreneurial decision makers)
interact to share ideas and experiences for improving policy-
making-processes, and at developing a new best practice approach
for applying System Dynamics in business and politics. For this,
different users (mainly ministries and companies like Deutsche
Bank or Daimler Chrysler) have been involved in order to define
their requirements like easy to use (e.g. avoiding time and cost-
intensive training or moderation services), transparency,
workflow-oriented approach, integrating different approaches
(e.g. the causal-loop-diagram concept and the stock-and-flow-
view) as well as linking the qualitative analysis with the
simulation part. As a results of the project a new, software-based
best practice approach which can be used intuitively has been
developed, tested, evaluated and improved in cooperation with
different users in politics and business. Be invited to discuss and
evaluate the best practice approach at our workshop.

How to Visit a Great Model Like Yours

We were at the Lyon’s Pub. Peterson walked in with a

presentable young man.

“This is Randy,” she said, pulling up a chair. “He’s just back
from Egypt.” Ordering a beer, Peterson fished a photo from her
pocket. “Doesn’t Randy look grand in front of the Sphinx?”

Sedgewick turned to the young man “Tell us about your trip.”

172. 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Randy smiled in recollection. “I stayed at Le Meridien in Giza.
Costs a bloody fortune, but it’s worth it. Has a swim-in bar, don’t
you know.”

“And the Sphinx?” Sedgewick prompted.

Randy’s expression turned weighty. “Big. Damn big.”

“So you've never actually been to Egypt.” Sedgewick said sadly.
“And, never seen the Sphinx.”

Like Randy, many of us return from a model without true insight.

In this workshop we’ll deeply explore a model or two. You will
see how eigenanalysis complements and speeds traditional
approaches to understanding models. Math-phobics and math-
lovers are equally welcome.

Gary B. Hirsch Designing Simulation-Based Learning

bhirsch@comcast.net . .

Gear of Leaming Envifpuments Environments: Helping People Understand

7 Highgate Road Complex Systems

Wayland MA 01778

USA Simulation-based learning environments, often _ called
management flight simulators or Microworlds, are excellent tools
for giving people without modeling experience an intuitive
understanding of complex systems. Learning environments let
them experience the dynamics of complex systems without the
hurdle of having to build models "from scratch". This workshop
will deal with the design of learning environments, their user
interfaces, underlying models, and workshop formats for
experiencing with them. Special attention will be paid to methods
of displaying information to help users understand causes of the
behavior they encounter and thereby make better decisions and
learn more quickly. The presenter will show a number of
examples from his own work, but is also eager to make the
workshop interactive and would like to hear about other people's
experiences with learning environments and from people with
models they are interested in turning into learning environments.

Robert Hoffman Methods and Software Tools for Expanding

Ce eee tid Perceptive Capacity: The Case of the Global

338 Somerset Street West 3rd Floor Systems Simulator

Ottawa K2P 0J9

Canad The Global Systems Simulator addresses the issues of

Bert McInnis sustainability and carrying capacity at a global scale - the same

bert.mcinnis@robbert.ca issues addressed by the Jay Forrester's World3 model. The current

Lanhi Li version of the GSS is a prototype intended as proof of concept for

a much different approach to modeling. Systems models are seen
as explicit extensions of the mental models we use to interpret the
signals received by our sensory apparatus and to navigate in the

lanhi.li@robbert.ca

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 173
Richard Langheim
richlangheim@yahoo.com
Ramapo College of New Jersey
37 Mary Lane

Waldwick NJ 07463

USA

Winston P. Ledet
wpledet@mfg-game.com
Ledet Enterprises Inc
7702 FM 1960 East
Suite 226

Humble TX 77346 USA

Tony Cardella

tony@dpef.com

Michelle Ledet

mrledet@mfg-game.com

real world - extensions that enable us to perceive the long term
and systemic consequences of potential actions. The approach has
its roots in the activity analysis of Koopmans, Leontief, and
Georgescu-Roegan, the system dynamics of Forrester, the control
theory of Mesarovic, the general system theory of Weiner and
Laszlo, the principle of uncertainty of Prigogine, and the
cognitive theory of Bateson, Maturana and Varella. The GSS is
implemented using the whatIf? software technology, a platform
developed by Robbert Associates for large scale simulation
modeling. The workshop will demonstrate these concepts using
the Global Systems Simulator.

Before the Model: Enhancing Dialogue with
Semantica

The primary goal of this workshop is to improve the pre-modeling
classroom dialogue of students and teachers through the use of
Semantica, a semantic web-building tool. K-16 teachers, as well
as consultants, may find this workshop useful. Research has noted
that system dynamics modeling is "low [poor] on construction
time, user prerequisites, and learning time."* The purpose of
using Semantica is to enhance dialogue and thus improve the
model building process. During the workshop we will examine
the idea of semantic webs, create webs based upon the interests of
participants, thoroughly explore the features of Semantica,
illustrate the utility of semantic webs across disciplines and
present a summary of research about using semantic webs. The
workshop will conclude with dialogue about the reactions of the
participants and the presentation of materials to enable
participants to further explore this technology.

The Manufacturing Game

By addressing the need for organizational change, The
Manufacturing Game(r) has enabled manufacturing facilities
around the world to vastly improve their reliability practices,
resulting in enormous gains in a short period of time. Our unique,
integrated approach, based on a System Dynamics model, helps
organizations realize their full potential by encouraging front-line
workers to better understand their role and take responsibility for
their performance as it relates to the functionality of the entire
plant. This bottom-up approach to organizational change has been
effective at not only improving reliability, but more importantly,
sustaining improvement. Over 27,000 people from companies like
DuPont, BP, Honda, Whirlpool and ExxonMobil have used The
Manufacturing Game(r) to reduce failures and lower costs. The
game is a board game played with poker chips, play money, and
dice. It is a fun way to learn as many have experienced playing
the beer game.

174 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Debra A. Lyneis
Iyneisd@clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
PO Box 121

Weston VT 05161 USA

Rob Quaden
rquaden@carlisle.mec.edu
Carlisle Public Schools
83 School Street
Carlisle MA 01741 USA

Alan Ticotsky
aticotsky@carlisle.mec.edu
Carlisle Public Schools.
83 School Street
Carlisle MA 01741 USA

Alan Charles McLucas

a.melucas@adfa.edu.au
Australian Defence Force Academy
UNSW School of Aerospace

Civ & Mec Eng

Northcott Drive

Campbell ACT 2600

Australia

Hazhir Rahmandad
hazhir@mit.edu

MIT

Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-354A.
Cambridge MA 02139 USA

System Dynamics for K-12 Students

Workshop participants will engage in several games and
abbreviated lessons designed to teach the basics of system
dynamics to K-12 students. The workshop will conclude with a
brief discussion of available curriculum resources and the
strategies, challenges and pitfalls of implementing K-12 SD in
schools.

Diana Fisher
dfisher25@verizon.net
Wilson High School

7405 SW Cresmoor Drive
Beaverton OR 97008 USA

Group Model Building: A Modular
Approach

Structure is a critically important determinant of system
behaviour. The relationships between the most basic elements
(accumulations, physical flows, information flows, feedback and
delay) found in system dynamics models and the building blocks
of system dynamics structure are examined. Complexity is
explained. The complexity of models we might build, relative to
real-world complexity is examined. Why we need to approach
model building top-down rather than bottom-up is explained.
How to design system dynamics group model building projects
through a top-down approach is explained. How to decompose
conceptual models developed top-down into appropriate modules
to be constructed then synthesised bottom-up is explained.
Attendees will design a group model-building project using this
approach. The relationships between model functionality,
verification, the model as a necessary and _ sufficient
representation of the real world, and the real challenges of
validation are explained. How to build models and design
effective test to ensure those models work as intended is
explained and demonstrated. How to build models using a
methodology integrating aspects of systems thinking, system
dynamics modelling and engineering is demonstrated. How to
manage the complexity of the model through each stage of
development is explained.

System Dynamics Boot Camp for PhD
Students

How can we build dynamic models to effectively inform our

research? The System Dynamics method offers established
practices and principles to enable us to do so. This boot camp is

23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 175
Gékhan Dogan
gdogan@mit.edu

MIT

30 Wadsworth Street
Building E53 Room 364
Cambridge MA 02139
USA

Jeroen Struben
jirs@mit.edu

MIT

750 Tremont Street Apt 9
Boston MA 02118

USA

Imrana A. Umar
imrana.umar@powersimsolutions.com
Powersim Solutions

585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon VA 20170

USA

Ozgur Ozkan
oozkan@powersimsolutions.com
Powersim Solutions

585 Grove Street Suite 130
Herndon VA 20170

USA

directed to expose PhD students to the (iterative) SD modeling
process. The workshop consists of two parts. In the first part
participants will engage in the process of model building from a
case and getting some basic insights. Issues that will be discussed
include problem definition, model boundary, scope/level of
aggregation, generating insights from modeling, as well as
challenging the research question. The second part of the boot
camp will address actual issues from participants’ research based
on the important themes discussed in the first section. For this we
ask participants to submit a one/two page summary of their
current research, comprising: abstract, research questions,
motivation for model and two or three main issues. We encourage
submitting models— in whatever stage of progress. The summaries
should be in at latest on Monday of the conference (though earlier
is strongly suggested!). The case material will be available
upfront so that the participants read the case before hand. Note:
this workshop does not involve one-on-one coaching that the
modeling assistance workshop offers, nor has it the conference
setup of the PhD colloquium. These sessions are complementary
to each other and participants are encouraged to participate in all
of them.

Strategy Communication with ExTrain®

System dynamics models are being used by more and more
businesses to train employees from new hires to veteran
managers, communicate strategic change within the company,
share mental models between stakeholders and align business
perspectives between business units. Advances in computer
technologies help this process to a great extent by enabling users
to interact with models more effectively and efficiently. This
workshop will introduce you to ExTrain(r), one such technology
that facilitates the use of simulation models in strategy
communication and management training. The ExTrain(r) is a
web-based application platform that serves as a virtual practice
field for managers to exercise decision-making power under
various business conditions in a risk-free environment. ExTrain(r)
applications can be used in individual online simulation sessions
or within a facilitated environment with interaction from trainers.
Each application is also supported with a facilitation tool that
allows trainers to monitor simulation progress, user performance
and intervene if necessary. In this workshop, we will introduce
you to the ExTrain(r) platform and its new features from a user
perspective. You will also get a chance to learn more about the
integration and maintenance of simulation models within
ExTrain(r) environment. There will also be a hands-on
demonstration of the system where participants will take part in a
sample war-game application. Participants will be divided into
four teams, each of which will take control of a virtual technology
company. Starting on level ground, you will compete for revenue
growth while maximizing profit through various business
decisions. Facilitation will be provided to help you understand the
key business dynamics and formulate your strategy.

176 23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Sanith Wijesinghe

sanithw@gmail.com

Agent-Based Models for Crowd Dynamics

The objective of this workshop is to provide participants an
introduction to agent-based modeling of crowd dynamics. A
summary of pedestrian socio-psychological egress behavior will
be presented together with an outline of existing modeling
techniques and software tools. A detailed description of a simple
crowd model that can be implemented using MATLAB will be
presented. Participants will learn how to develop a simple yet
fully functional simulation and visualization of crowd dynamics.
Skeleton Matlab scripts will be available for download from
www.sanithw.org starting July 1st, 2005 but will also be available
via PC/MAC compatible USB drives during the workshop.

23" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 ~ 21, 2005, Boston, USA 177
Author Index

A
AbdelGawad, Ahmed AbdelTawad
Abou Ali, Tarek

Adamides, Emmanuel D....

Agarwal, Ashish .....
Ahmed, Abdallah S......
Ahmed, Fad! M...
Akcam, Bahadir
Alkemper, Jens
Allen, Robert B.
Al-Qirem, Raed

Alvarez Sierra, Abel F.

Alvarez Sierra, Carlos ....
Aly Abdel-Aleem, Bahaa Eldin......

An, Lianjun..

Andersen, David F...

Andersen, Deborah Lines
Anderson, Edward G.

Antunes, Maria Paula

Arango, Santiago...

Arellano, Irving

Arenas, Fernando...
Arief, Burhan...
Arquitt, Steven...
Arthur, Daniel J. W......
Asal, Victor.
Askar, Mohamed....
Assabghy, Karim...

Badger, Beryl
Bakken, Bent Erik...

Ballardin, Giorgio

Baltaci, Sehnaz.....

Barabba, Vincent P.

Barlas, Yaman....

Barney, Gerald O

Bartoszczuk, Pawel ....

Barua, Pank@j....

Bassi, Andrea Marcello

Bayer, Steffen...
Bayoumi, Khaled Abdel Hakim

Bazylevich, Victor.

Beinhocker, Eric......

Belyazid, Salim
BenDor, Todd...
Bérard, Céline....
Bhushan, Vikrant.
Bianchi, Carmine.

Bivona, Enzo.
Black, Jason W. ....
Blake, Robert

Bleda, Mercedes

Blinov, Alexander B. ...

Bog, Suat.
Bonadia, Graziella C. .....
Borshchev, Andréi.....
Bots, Pieter W. G. .....
Bourne, Mary

Boyer, Jeffrey .....
Braun, Bill...

Brehmer, Berndt...

Breskvar, Uro8....

Brombacher, Aarnout C.

Brown, Douglas.....

Buendia, Fernando

Bueno, Newton Paulo.
Bulbul, Ali Afsin .....

178 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA

Burgess, Warren...

Burke, James......

Burns, James R. ....
Burton, Lester P. J...
Bush, B.....

c

Campbell, Deborah

Capelo, Carlos...

Cappelli, Dawn M
Cardella, Tony...

Cassivi, Luc...
Cavalieri-D'Oro, Edoardo.
Cavana, Robert Y....

Cave, Sion...

Censlive, Michael

Ceresia, Francesco
Chai, Kah Hin .....

Chandler, Joan

Chang, Liang-Cheng
Chen, Jie

Chinn, Susan...

Choucri, Nazli .

Cloutier, Martin

Coleman-Kammula, Seetha.....
Colombo, Gianluca
Conrad, Stephen H
Cooke, David L.
Cooper, Kenneth G. ....

Crespo Marquez, Adolfo...

Cresswell, Anthony M. ......
Cronin, Matthew A...

Cui, Yuanlai

Cumenal, Didier ....

D

Dallari, Fabrizio .....

Dall-Antonia, Juliano...

Daneshgari, Parviz
Dangerfield, Brian C...
Dattée, Brice A. ..

Dauelsberg, Lori...

Davidsen, Pal I. ..

de Holanda, Giovanni M. .....

Deaton, Michael L.....

Debernardo, Héctor....

Deegan, Michael A. ....
DeLand, S...

Derrick, Sonja....

Dhawan, Rajat...
Dias, Jodo Ferreira
Diker, Vedat G....

Dikos, George...

Dogan, Gokhan....
Drake, Brett....
Dudley, Richard G. ..
Duggan, Jim...

Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J. ...

Durham, C. Lance...

Dvornik, Josko....

Dwyer, Michael F.....

Dyner, Isaac...

E

Edgar, William
Eissa, Fissal . 148
Elf, Mari
Elg, Fredril
Ellis, R. Evan ..
Ellison, Robert J.
Els, Sharon A. . 165
Elter, John

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 179
Emmi, Philip C....
Eren, Egzi ....

Everwijn, Hayke.....

Ewers, Mary....
Exelby, David R. ....

F

Fair, Jeanne...
Fairchild, David G. ...

Ferracioli, Laércio ....

Fierro, Tania...

Fisher, Diana

Fletcher, Michael...

Flury, Christian
Flynn, Hilary....

Fogel, Jonah...

Fontenot, Lauren E......
Ford, Andrew
Ford, David N. ....

Forster, Craig..

Franck, Travis Read....

Franco, Douglas...

Franke, Alexander ...

Frolova, Julia V. .....

Fryling, Meg....
Furbee, Paul M

Furihata, Tetsuma ...............

Furman, Jeff...

G

Gabriela, Morales .....

Gann, David....

Garcia, Rosanna...

Gary, Shayne...

Gavetti, Giovanni ..

Georgantizas, Nicholas C

Getmansky, Mila...

Geursen, Gus...

Ghaffarzadegan, Navid

Glass-Husain, Will...

Godfrey, Jeremy...

Goggi, James A.....
Golay, Michael...

Goncalves, Elias

Gongalves, Paulo

Gonzalez, Cleotilde.
Gonzalez, Jose J......... 127, 133, 140, 152, 165

Goodman, Michael R.

Goswani, Rajib.....

Goyal, Asha...
Graham, Alan K.....

Grimm, Franc.

Grésser, Stefan...

Gr6Rler, Andreas.
Gubbels, Jan...

Guevara, Porfirio

Gineralp, Burak...

H

Ha, Won-Gyu
Haefeli, Ueli....

Hancer, Omer....

Haraldsson, Hordur V.
He, Chi-Zho....

Heffernan, Mark ....
Heinbokel, John F....
Hendriks, Michelle J. A. ....
Higgins, Aparna...

Hines, James H.....
Hirsch, Gary B...
Ho, Yufeng

Hoard, Marna

Hoarfrost, Megan
Hoffman, Robert...

180 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Holt, John...

Homer, Jack B....

269
81, 158, 165, 166

Hong, Siang.....

Hovmand, Peter S. ..
Hsu, Chao-Li...

Hsueh, Yu-Lung....

Hummel, John R....

Hurtado Hernandez, Margarita ....

Hwang, Lihlian...

Igumnova, Ekaterina M......
Ikeda, Makoto...

Imam, Syed

J

Jacobson, Jacob J

Jae, Moosung..
Jain, Vikas.
Jambekar, Anil B.

Janamanchi, Balaji

Jarzynka, Karen

Jensen, Eva....

Jiang, Min....
Jiang, Neng.
Joglekar, Nitin R.....

Johnson, Christopher

Johnson, Scott T...

Johnston, Don E. ..

Jones, Charles A. .

Jonson-Reid, Melissa

Jost, Andreas Patric...

Joyce, Phil...

Juerging, Jan......

K

Kampmann, Christian Erik....

Kang, Kyungmin.....

Kanungo, Shivraj...

Kaplan, Paul G. ..

Kapmeier, Florian

Kaufmann-Hayoz, Ruth .....
Kelic, Andjelka...
Kelly, Thomas G. .....
Kennedy, Michael S....
Khan, Shahbaz

Kim, Doahoon...........

Kim, Dong-Hwan

Kim, Hyunjung....

Kim, Najung ...

Kim, Sang-Joon.....
Kim, Sang-Wook
Kimble, Marsha....
King, Gerald...

Kljajic, Miroljub

Koblov, Andrey I...

Kofjac, Davorin...

Kopainsky, Birgit
Korobitsin, Victor V.

Kostina, Nina

Kostron, Lubomir
Krail, Michael
Krakenes, Arne.
Krishnamurthy, G. R...
Kum, Veasna
Kunc, Martin H....

L

Labedz, Chet

Lacey, Peter...

Lakomy, Ladislav

Langheim, Richard...

LeClaire, Rene
Ledet, Michelle
Ledet, Winston P.

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 181
Lee, Man-Hyung ....

Lee, Tsuey-Ping.....

Lewis, Kyle.
Li, Geng....
Li, Lanhi.....

Lipson, Howard
Liu, Chao-Yueh

Lizeo, Elaine...

Lo, Yu-Tang....
Lofdahl, Corey...
Lopez, Luis...

Lorenz, Tobias....
Loutfi, Mohamed ....

Lovett, Jenny.....

Lu, Qiang.
Lubyansky, Alexander.....

Luna-Reyes, Luis F. ....

Luo, Yufeng ....

Lyneis, Debra A. ...

Maani, Kambiz E....
MacDonald, Roderick H.......
Mack, Gabriele
Madachy, Raymond.
Madnick, Stuart
Majdalawi, Mohammad
Mandal, Abhijit...

Mandal, Purnendu ...

Mango, Don...

Manley, William

Maoret, Massimo
Marcus, Henry S...
Maren, Martin E. ....

Martinez Medina, Maria Angélica

Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio J....... 103, 108, 126
Martis, Morvin Savio...
Mashayekhi, Ali N....
Masyita, Dian
Matthern, G. E....
McCaffrey, David.
McDonnell, Geoff
McInnis, Bert...

McKenna, Nicholas.

McKelvie, Douglas......

McLucas, Alan Charles

Meadows, Dennis ....

Medina-Borja, Alexandra
Mehmood, Arif...
Melville, Nigel ....

Menezes, Esther
Metcalf, Sara.

Meyer, Grischa...

Mildeova, Stanislava...
Milling, Peter M. ....
Mills, James |
Milstein, Bobby.

Mischke, Gerald...

Mitrovic, Frane....

Mohapatra, Pratap K. J...
Moisseytsev, Anton
Molkenthin, René
Mollona, Edoardo.
Monk, David....

Montemaggiore, Giovan Battista ...

Monus, Paul A. ........

Moore, Andrew P. ...

Moore, Leslie
Morecroft, John D. W. ....
Morris, Don R.....

Morrison, J. Bradley...
Moscardini, Alfredo O.....

182. 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Moxnes, Erling...

Mulinari, Mara...

Mullen, Tom...
Mundie, David....

Munitic, Ante M. .....
Murdock, Frank......
Myers, Rodney S. .....

N

Nair, Anand
Natawidjaja, Ronnie S....
Newell, Karl M.....

Ni, Xiaowen

Ning, Xiaogqian...

Noe, Carlo...

Nokes, Tim.

oO

Ochoa, Patricia

Ogushi, Cristiane ...

Olafsdottir, Rannveig
Olaya, Camilo...
Oliva, Rogelio...
O'Reilly, Gerald ..
Osgood, Nathaniel...
@stby, Pal R. ..
Otto, Peter A...

Outkin, Alexander ....

Ozkan, Ozgur.....

P

Paich, Mark
Papadatos, Martsin P.

..112, 159, 170

Papakonstantinou, Vassilis.....
Pardo, Theresa

Park, Hun-Joon

Park, Sang-Hyun....

Parvizian, Jamshid....
Pasupathy, Kalyan...
Pavlov, Oleg V....

Pedercini, Matteo
Pérez Salazar, Gloria
Piet, Steven J. ....
Pitner, Ron
Plice, Robert
Pomonis, Nikolaos...
Potash, P. Jeffrey.

Poutilova, Maria ...

Powell, Dennis...

Price, Marsha J. ...

Pryor, Charlotte .....

Pudar, Nick .....
Q
Qian, Ying

Quaden, Rob
Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan
Quinn, Timothy D

R

Radzicki, Michael J. .
Rahmandad, Hazhir....
Rahn, R. Joel

Ramachandran, Bala.

125, 170, 175

«108, 125

Ramos, Boris

Rampinelli, Mariana...
Ravi, V..
Reilly, C. Michael

Rejec, Valter ...........

Repper, Dean...
Rich, Eliot...
Richardson, George P....
Robadue, Donald
Robinson, Stewart....
Rockart, Scott F. ..

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 183
Rodrigues, Lewlyn....

Rodriguez, Roberto .............
Rohleder, Thomas R.......
Roksund, Arne

Rosengard, Jay K.....

Ross, Brent...

Rossi, Tommaso...
Rouwette, Etiénne A. J. A. ....
Roy, Sanjoy ...

Roy, Santanu
Rudolph, Jenny W. ...
Ruud, Morten
Ryan, Michael J. ...
Ryzhenkov, Alexander V. .....

Ss

Saeed, Khalid...
Salama, Mohamed
Saleh, Mohamed Mostafa
Salge, Markus ...

Salter, Ammon....

Samsa, M....

Samur, Mehmet.

Sanchez, Carlos....
Sanders, Frank M. ...
Sanders, Richard

Sandrock, Joerg....

Sangunett, Brandi... we 159

Santos, Javier...

Santos, Rui
Saparita, Rachmini..
Sarriegi, Jose Mari...
Sawicka, Agata

Schade, Burkhard...
Schade, Wolfgang ...

Schaffernicht, Martin Franz Georg...
Scheel, Carlos....

Scheetz, Mary.....
Scheffmann, Tim
Schieritz, Nadine

Schroeter, Marcus...

Sekimizu, Koichi...

Senge, Peter M. ....

Serrano, Maria...

Serrano, Nicolas....
Shackley, Simon
Shankar, Ravi...

Sharma, Ritu...

Sharma, Sunita......
Shimeall, Timothy J.....
Shiryaev, Vladimir |

Siegel, Michael

Siemer, William .....

Simon, Martin .....
Sirok, David....

Skjelbred, Hans Ivar...
Skraba, Andrej...
Slinger, Jill
Smith, Gill.
Snabe, Birgitte...

Song, Hae-Deok....
Sotaquira, Ricardo...
Spencer, Roberta L. ...

Spengler, Thomas...

Stalker, George ..
Stamboulis, Yeoryios A.
Stave, Krystyna A.....
Sterman, John...
Stewart, Thomas R.....
Struben, Jeroen...
Stuart, Guy
Stuntz, Lees N....

Suarez, Fernando...

Suetake, Toru...

184 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA
Summers, Daniel

Susta, Marek ......

Sveen, Finn Olav

Sverdrup, Harald...

T

Takahashi, Yutaka...
Tanaka, Nobuhide ...

Tasrif, Muhammad...

Taylor, Alva

Taylor, Tim..
Telaga, Abdi Suryadinata

Thompson, David

Thompson, Kimberly

Ticotsky, Alan.....
Tignor, Warren W. ....
Timchenko, Igor E. ..
Timchenko, Irina I. ...
Torres, José Manuel....

Tseng, Ya-tsai ...

Tsuchiya, Noriko...
Tsuchiya, Shigehisa ....
Tu, Yi-Ming..

Tunakan, Belkis ....

Tushman, Michael ...

U

Uchino, Akira ...
Ulli-Beer, Silvia Astrid

Umar, Imrana A.
Utterback, James M. ......

Vv

van Daalen, Cornelia

Van Den Durpel, Luc

van der Sanden, Roel ....
Vargas, German...
Verhaeghe, Robert

Videira, Nuno

Vizayakumar, Karumancti...

Vogstad, Klaus-Ole.
Vojtko, Viktor.
Voyer, John J

Ww

Wahba, Khaled
Wakeland, Wayne....

Wang, Hsiao-Shen....

Wang, Qifan...
Wang, ShuSone...

Wang, Wei Yang
Wang, Wei-Tsong....

... 100, 138, 149

Weaver, Elise Axelrad.... ..127, 150

Weber, Lars...
Weil, Henry Birdseye
Weinhardt, Christof.
Wheat, David
White, Anthony S......
Whitney-Smith, Elin ....
Wiik, Johannes...
Wijesinghe, Sanith....
Winch, Graham W. ...
Winz, Ines. ......
Wolfe, Ellen...

Wolstenholme, Eric F.....

Wong, Yoke San
Wood, Robert E....

Yacout, A. M.......

Yamaguchi, Kaoru ....

Yao, Yugin.

Yasarcan, Hakan

Yeon, Seung-Jun

Young, Showing H....

23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA 185
Young, William
Youssef, Sherif M. ...

Yuan, Yonggen

Yiicel, Goneng....

Yuliani, Dewi...

Zz

Zagonel, Aldo A...
Zhu, Hongbing...

Ziomek, Agnieszka

Zufiga-Saenz, Roy G.

186 23” International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 — 21, 2005, Boston, USA