& THE 36™ INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS SOCIETY
——
REYKJAVIK, ICELAND
Exploring the Battery Market
for Electric Cars
Jonatan Gomez Vilchez, Joint Research
Centre
The views expressed are purely those of the presenter and
may not in any circumstance be regarded as stating an
Official position of the European Commission
& Problem Statement
* Over 3 million electric cars in use
worldwide in 2017 (EVI, 2018)
* Goal: 100 million electric cars globally in
2030 (COP21, 2016)
* Potential supply-side constraints neglected
- Resource scarcity
- Supply chain bottlenecks
Suse . .
® Approach or Dynamic Hypothesis
Purchase
Decision
+
Combined“
a ili + Willingness to
tility Consider as
+ a
Sales (New
Reg's) Re Total Costof + Attractiveness
Ownership BE
Newer Cars + Marketing
Lower Taxes Against Penalties
Fuel &
con Price Price:
+ ways i Marketing
Forecast Sales Pal
(uf (mf Costs
R on - New Vehicle
iesearc! ives ssi
+ Attractiveness Emissions
R&D GC) Accrued and
Investment Forecast Emissions
Newer Cars :
aes Performance * Lower Penalties i Penalties
Metrices a
Forecast New
ome
Vehicle Emissions
Battery
manufacturing
| TE3 | |
model
& Progress and Insights to Share
——
° Battery market dynamics disruptive
200
150
0 a 0
1996 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046 1996
Tine (Year)
global EVB manufacturing capacity : Cunent with plans
global EVB manufacturing capacity : Cunent with demand =
global EVB manufacturing capacity : Curent
word EVB demand : Curent with demand
Source: own assumptions based on Lebedeva et al. (2016) and
DB (2016)
References
1. COP21 (2016) Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change
and Call to Action - Electrifying Sustainable Transport, 21st Conference
of the Parties (COP). Available at:
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/lpaa/transport/the-paris-declaration-on-elect
ro-mobility-and-climate-change-and-call-to-action
l
2. DB (2016) EV battery makers. Market research. Deutsche Bank (DB)
3. EVI (2018) Global EV Outlook 2017. Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI)
4. Lebedeva, N., Di Persio, F., Brett, L. (2016) Lithium ion battery value
chain and related opportunities for Europe. Publications Office of the
European Union
| thank Sebastiaan Deuten for his Causal Loop Diagram on slide #3.
