JHE 1986 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE SYSTEM DINAMICS SOCIETY. SEVILLA, OCTOBER, 1986. 919
A STRATEGIC STUDY ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ELECTRONIC INDUSTRY IN CHINA
Qifam Wang Dong Jianglin
System Dynamics Group
Shanghai Institute of Mechanical Engineering
Shanghai, China
April, 1986
Abstract
With the rapid development and wide application of
microelectronics, the electronic industry is playing an ever
more important role in modern economies, Backed by the
socioeconomic circumstances, a system dynamics model (SDEIC)
is constructed to investigate the development of electronic
industry and to give a description on the future of
microelectronics in China in some way. The analyses and
simulation results show that there will be a prosperous period
for the development of the electronic industry in the coming
twenty years with a vigorous investing requirement and at a
relative high growth rate. A notable characteristic is that
the development is unbalanced with electronic consumption
products dominating the market in terms of volume in the
period concerned.
I. INTRODUCTION
One of the most striking event in this century is the rapid
development and wide application of microelectronics which is
considered the token of the new revolution of science and
technology. It is believed that the hard~foreseen development
of hi-techs is an opportunity for some developing countries to
advance their economies by leaping over certain stages of
technology. And a serious challenge also lies ahead to broaden
the gaps between developing and developed countries in the
economic sector, Then what about the future development of
microelectronics in China is still in argument--optimistic,
pessimistic, or somewhere between the two ends.
The development of microelectronics is considered, in a broad
sense, the evolution of microelectronization of electronic
industry and informization of social life. To get an answer,
in some way, to the question above a system dynamics model is
created to investigate the development of the electronic
industry in China under the consideration of the interaction
with socioeconomic circumstances in the evolution. The
problems concerned in the paper are as follows:
. The demands of electronic products
. The production and importation of the electronic products
. The investment in the electronic industry
. The growth rate of the electronic industry
920
THE 1986 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE SYSTEM DINAMICS SOCIETY. SEVILLA, OCTOBER, 1986.
« The proportion of the electronic industry in the national
economy
. The shares of production of each sector in the electronic
industry, etc..
An analysis on the main mechanism and structure of the system
is given in the paper followed by the simulation results and
the conclusion on the development of the electronic industry
in China.
II, THE SYSTEM AND ITS ENVIRONMENT
The definition of the system determines the structure and
function of the model. Now the first question is where to draw
the boundary and how to deal with the interactions between the
system and its environment.
There emerge various types of modes in developing electronic
industry in the world. The United States has invested much
efforts in advancing the production of military and
investmental electronic products. Japan, on the other hand,
set the sail by expanding the production of electronic
consumption products. South Korea then took the production of
electronic components as a ticket into the world market. As
for application of electronic products, some countries rely
mainly on their own efforts, some depend greatly on
importation, What about our country? China has experienced a
zig-zag way in developing its electronic industry in the past
years, especially in advancing both IC and computer
productions.
The lessons derived from experience tell us that the
development of electronic industry is restricted and affected
by socioeconomic circumstances to a great degree. We should,
therefore, keep our research in a wider scope to capture the
dynamic behavior of the electronic industry in a long term.
As a result of the lasting construction from 1949, China now
has a solid industrial and scientific foundation of its own,
and can focus its power on the development of critical fields
and key techniques in its modernization, The most favourable
factor is that there would be a great potential demand for
electronic products in the domestic market.
But the obstructions are still tangled with the stimuli in
many aspects. The economy in China, as a whole, is far from
modern based on the lower level of industrialization. The
backward predicament of science and technology is hard to be
reversed in a short period and the extent of competition in
the world of electronic products market is much higher than
before. All these make the development mode of electronic
industry in China different and special from others, which is
just the problem we want to study into,
The demand for electronic products is one of the key-points in
IHt 1986 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE SYSTEM DINAMICS SOCIETY. SEVILLA, OCTOBER, 1986, 921
the interactions between electronic industry and socioeconomy.
Another is the restriction to the investment in electronic
industry. It is considered that the evolution of national
economy is insensitive to a small change in the development of
electronic industry. We could therefore make a proper trade
off between perfectness and simplification by introducing some
variables exogenously without much affecting to the variables
of the model.
Here are some important concepts before further discussion.
Electronic consumption products (ECP) is defined as the
electronic products being used privately by families or
individuals, e.g. radios, TV sets, cassette recorders. On the
contrary, we define electronic investmental poroducts (EIP) as
the products employed in industry or other public sectors,
such as computers, communications equipment and robots. The
products belonging to elementary sector are electronic
components (EEP) for making final electronic products.
It should be noted that the definitions of ECP and EIP here
are according to the utility and users of products which take
notice of the fact that some electronic products actually
belong to both ECP and EIP, They are somewhat different from
those in common terms. Another note is that some products
adopting electronic technology should not be simply and wholly
classified into as electronic category. Making clear the
concepts will be helpful in understanding the conclusions
derived from the simulations,
eae
i 1 i
foro
tot 1 [Consumption Tnvestment
Lat b | sector Sector
jot i 8
jaro é
a 3
Ie | ai
1a Koy a
{gene is
is | i n°
feo H
{£1 | flonconcumptter Tlenentary
p" tt [sector sector
i t t
i 1 1
L. J i
Figure | The frame diagram of SbEIC
SDEIC model has been simulated on VAX~11/780 with about 400
DYNANO equations grouped into six sectors:
1) Environment Sector
2) Consumption Sector
3) Nonconsumption Sector
4) Elementary Sector
922 THE 1986 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE SYSTEM DINAMICS SOCIETY, SEVILLA, OCTOBER, 1986,
5) Investment Sector
6) Import and Export Sector.
Figure 1 shows the frame diagram of SDEIC.
Environment sector creates a socioeconomic environment
concerning the development of electronic industry by providing
some table functions and auxiliary variables based mainly on
the System Dynamics National Model of China (SDNMC) developed
by Qifan Wang, et. al.. Consumption Sector, Nonconsumption
Sector and Elementary Sector deal with the demand, production,
selling, etc. respectively for ECP, EIP and EEP. Investment
Sector handles the requirement for and restriction to the
investment in electronic industry. The variables in Import and
Export Sector express the functions by their name themselves.
The key problems in the model are discussed in the next
section.
IIL. THE MAIN MECHANISM OF SDEIC
The market mechanism forms the nucleus of SDEIC, consisting of
demand, production, inventory, selling, importation,
exportation, and investment, The causal loop diagram of SDEIC
is shown in Figure 2, Our discussion covers only a part of the
whole,
w
an Potentiel Froportion Desired Investment
in Electr.
Science & Technology of Export
dn Industry Li
eet
(2 Fulriiiment of
Potential Export of _ io
A Electr: Products “~~ —_ ‘he Demands Electr. iaaseeey
Desired Home-made
Proportion
Froduction Bapotilety
Demands of Home-made Of Electr. i
wT P°Blectr. Products BERR n, IMUEEET ea saiiaiit of
ay Desired Investment
Population \ iF
ey
Demands of i _
Electr. Products t___., Output of Electr. ( ;
Industry
, , a “ PN / Available Funds
Requirement 5 oe
ctr. Products~ 44, tmport of National
A Zlectr.. Products 7
Export of
oe Available Foreign te
geal, ‘Exchanges in Blectr. Erocucts
2 Elect. Industry
Pigure 2 The causal loop of SDEIC
IME 1986 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE SYSTEM DINAMICS SOCIETY. SEVILLA, OCTOBER, 1986.
III,1 The Demands of EIP
The application of microelectronics in industry,
transportation, commerce, banking, and some other government
sections form the main stream in the development of
micrdelectronics, hence, they are of great importance in the
study.
The production of EIP is usually concerned with various types,
smaller batches, and more complicated techniques in
manufacturing. Moreover, the application efficiency of EIP is
related to the socioeconomic institution, modern economy and
the re-exploitability to the products. These are the important
factors in the developmant of EIP.
We should firstly introduce an index to indicate the level of
industrilization before calculating the demands of EIP. The
productivity and capital-intensity in industry are both
general indexes of industry, with the former emphasizing the
production efficiency and the latter reflecting directly the
means of production, So the level of industrilization is
defined in the paper as the sum of weighed indexes of
productivity and of capital-intensity in industry.
Electronic investmental products (EIP) are applied in
industry, service trades, military section etc. in the forms
of equipment, Thus the demands of EIP can be classified into
public demand and government demand. The government demand of
EIP are the demand of military electronic equipment and some
other electronic devices for government uses. The public
demand of EIP comes from industrial departments and is
calculated as the equipment investment in industry multiplied
by the desired proportion of electronic equipment according to
the level of industrilization, The effect of the upward trend
of the performance-cost ratio of electronic products and the
floating around normal price is also under consideration.
TII.2 The Demands of ECP
How to evaluate the function of the production of ECP in
electronic industry and how to develop it have still been an
outstanding issue in recent years. An understanding to this is
given in the paper.
There are two ways to compute the demands of ECP. One way is
to determine the proportion of the share in total consumption
funds for ECP, but it is hard to find statistic data to
support such a method and even impossible to capture its trend
in changes of the proportion in the future. Another defect is
that this way is not identified with the real situation in
micro mechanism.
An alternative approach is adopted in the paper to determine
the demands of ECP, There is, in fact, a desired but realistic
consumption level of ECP for each family which is in
923
924
THE 1986 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE SYSTEM DINAMICS SOCIETY. SEVILLA, OCTOBER, 1986.
accordance with mainly the income level and some other
factors. The demands of ECP then can be defined as the
difference between desired and real consumption of ECP of
society. Here the desired consumption of ECP is the average
desired consumption level of ECP multiplied by the number of
families in thé country, so the key point is how to get the
average desired consumption level of ECP.
Some statistic work shows that the average income per capita
in family in our country approximately displays a normal
distribution, and the absolute differences in average income
among families show a little trend of rising. We suppose in
SDEIC model that the average income in family possesses a
normal distribution, with the means of average income in
family equaling the average income per capita (i.e. the
expectation of group~means being the same as total-means), and
the standard variance being a linear function of the means of
average income in family.
Obviously, the families in different income levels have
different desired consumption for ECP, the relation between
the desired consumption of ECP and the average income in
family can be shown as a S-shaped curve in Figure 3. This
means that, a family at a very low income level would desire
nothing over and above the basic needs for foods, clothes and
the like. When the average income acrosses a certain
threshold, the desired consumption level of ECP for a family
will increase steeply as the average income rises. But when
income increases further to a high level, the rising of the
desird consumption for ECP would asymptotically approach to a
gentle slope, since the need for ECP has been largely met and
the desire for consumption would turn to some other fields.
a 4000 vt
8 3
ah ag
gap-0 aq
Fe 00 §
ae et:
80.0 aS
Ee ag
EE 2000 § &
£0.02 BS
8 28
Sp ‘awed &
“do.or 3°
a8 °
és a
a
i E °
tio a a
‘The average income in family (yuan/person.month)
Figure 3 The desired consumption level of ECP
A statistic investigation is needed to determine the cu've in
Figure 3, but we can now only make an estimation on som?
LE CUNT ET Enwe UE TRE DEO ee DINAMO AnE Ts See ery yet keenly, Ue,
points on the curve and test sensitivity with respect to the
changes of parameters within a reasonable range. Let x be the
average income in family, f(x) be the distribution density
function of average income in family, and d(x) be the demand
function shown in
Figure 3, then we have the average desired consumption level
of ECP
§ e(x)d(xdax .
ry
.IJI.3 The Demands of EEP
The demands of EEP comes from EIP and ECP production sectors,
and can thus be determined by the desired output of EIP and
ECP and by the proportion of component to final products in
electronic industry.
The production of EEP is of much importance in electronic
industry. The production of final products of EIP and ECP can
not even sustain without the input of EEP, and the quality of
final products is determined largely by the quality of EEP. On
the other hand, the production of EEP is related to the higher
techniques of production and management, the continued renewal
in EEP and the intensive competition in market. The gap
between China and advanced countries in electronic industry
lies mainly in the techniques and means of manufacturing EEP.
Therefore the key to the sustainable development of electronic
industry is to arrange properly the production of EEP for the
output of EIP and ECP and to advance the performance-cost
ratio of home-made EEP.
III.4 The Production and Importation of
Electronic Products
The co-existance of domestic production and importation is a
natural phenomenon in a country with a vast potential market
but much backwardness in science and technology. There in fact
exists a desired but possible proportion of home-made
electronic products in the market which could be a function of
the backward-time in science and technology. For the
consideration of the demand of suitible techniques and
products and the incomplete competition in electronic products
market, we can draw empirically a curve shown in Figure 4, The
demand of home-made electronic products is then equal to the
total demand multiplied by the desired home-made proportion.
The importation demand of electronic products rises from the
demand unsatisfied by the domestic production sector,
including the demand for EIP, ECP, EEP and specified equipment
in electronic industry. The realization of the importation
demand depends on largely the sufficiency of foreign
exchanges. The foreign exchanges for the importation of
electronic products are determined by the total importation,
by the reference proportion for electronic industry and by a
feedback adjustment to the proportion from the sufficiency of
veo
926 THE 1986 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE SYSTEM DINAMICS SOCIETY. SEVILLA, OCTOBER, 1986.
foreign exchanges in electronic industry, The exportation of
electronic products is also included in SDEIC and amounts to
part of total demands of electronic products.
100%
—— The desired
50% home-made proportion in the market
0 10 20 30 TO
The Backward time in scie, & tech. (year)
Figure 4 The desired home-made proportion
III.5 The Investment in Electronic Industry
One of the most troublesome problems in the economic
development in China is the severe shortage of funds for
investment in industry which would last for a long time. The
investment in electronic industry is then one of the critical
problems in the research which is considered from both the
real demand for investment and the possibility of funds.
The requirement of investment from electronic industry comes
from the unsatisfied demands of home-made electronic products
and is affected by the tendency of the demand, The obtainable
funds for the electronic industry may be a main constraint to
the development in the coming period. They are determined by
the total investment in industry and by the reference
proportion of investment in the electronic industry, which in
turn is set up in accordance with the development of the
economy (indexed by the industrilization level). A feedback
ajustment to the proportion is applied from the real situation
as well as from the possible elasticity. Now the only business
is to ration the funds to the sections of electronic industry
according to the shortages of supplies of EIP, ECP and EEP.
A general description has been given to the main mechanism of
SDEIC with a good many details omitted. The real capability of
production, the depreciation of inventory, the cancellation of
the orders unsatisfied, and some others are introduced in
SDEIC to make the model more "real". Now we shed some light on
the simulations and analyses,
INE 1900 INICRINALIUNAL UUNFERENGE UF IME SYSTEM DINAMICS SOCIETY. SEVILLA, OCTOBER, 1986. 927
IV,THE SIMULATIONS AND ANALYSES
A series of simulations have been executed on VAX-11/780
consisting of base-run, parameter-test-runs, policy-test-runs,
parameter-sensitivity~test-runs, The main results are as
folltws,.
IV.1 A General Description of the Development
of Electronic Industry
The base-run shows that, in Figure 5 and Figure 6, with the
economic development and wide application of microelectronics
especially by the stimuli of vigorous demands, there would be
a prosperous period for the development of the electronic
industry in the coming twenty years. The proportion of
investiment in the electronic industry to totai capital
investment would be up to 4 percent, but the available funds
could still hardly meet the requirement of investment from the
electronic industry. Under the increasing investment, the
electronic industry expands at an average growth rate of 12
percent, the share of output of electronic industry out of the
total output of sosiety would gradually increase concurrently
with the over-investment, and would reach its peak of more
than 3 pertcent around 2005. As the result of the rapid
development, electronic industry woyld become a major section
in the national economy.
IV.2 The Shares of EIP and ECP Productions
The development of electronic industry in China is unbalanced.
Base~run indicates that the output of ECP would dominate the
market for a period concerned. Although the production of EIP
would develop simultaniously with that of ECP and the relative
proportion of EIP would rise a little after 2000, it is still
hard for EIP to overshadow the dominant role now played by
ECP,
Two. test-runs are arranged to see the effect of the changes in
the parameters on the relative proportion between EIP and ECP.
In test-run 1, the parameters determining the demands of ECP
are increased by 25 percent and the parameters concerning the
demands of EIP are decreased by 25 percent. In test-run 2 the
conditions are just the opposite. Figure 7 shows that the
argument about the relative proportion between EIP and ECP
still holds up.
It is believed in this paper that the unbalanced development
in EIP and ECP is a typical characteristic determined mostly
by the real situation in China, The first reason is that EIP
and ECP have different enviromental requirements in their
applications so they have different behaviors with the
economic development. The second, the application of
microelectronics in ECP is the indication that
microelectronics has steped into a muture stage in its
evolution, since microelectronics could penetrate into lots of
consumption fields only when electronic industry can supply.a
928
THE 1986 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE SYSTEM DINAMICS SOCIETY. SEVILLA, OCTOBER, 1986.
great quantity of microelectronic products with new properties
and lower prices. This makes the application of
microelectronics boundless, The third, there is such a big
population of one billion in China and the size of family
shows a dwindling trend, the relative consumption of ECP is
very low compared with advanced countries, All these are
responsible for the huge potential demands of ECP which would
subsequently grow into a real demand as the increasing of
income per capita is realized. The last is that the
definations of ECP and EIP are somewhat different from the
common-used terms.
We should make distinctions among the stresses and stages in
science, technology and production in the development of the
electronic industry. Efforts should be put on the breakthrough
of key compoments, devices and systems in scientific research.
In technology then the stress should be layed on the
electronic techniques having much to do with the development
of socioeconomy, especially the applying microelectronic
techniques. In order to have the electronic industry grow
faster, a higher priority should be given to the products of
large quantity of demands and of much importance in the
modernization on the law of scale-economy.
The conclusion above does not mean that the development and
production of EIP are not important in economy. On the
contrary, although ECP dominate the market by volume, the
production and applying techniques of EIP and EEP promote
directly the development of electronic industry and
socioeconomy and thus are of much importance.
IV,3 The Results in Policy-Test~Runs
The policy parameters in SDEIC are the reference proportions
of investment and importation in the electronic industry, the
feedback ajustment elasticities to the proportions, etc.. To
investigate the effect of changes of these parameters on the
development of the electronic industry from the changes of
these parameters, four runs are arranged:
. Test-run 3--the reference proportion to investment is
reduced by 25 percent, the reference proportion to importation
is increased by 25 percent.
« Test-run 4--the changes are just the opposite to test~run
3.
. Test-run 5--both reference proportions are reduced by 25
percent.
» Test-run 6--the feedback ajustments to the investment and
importation are enhanced.
Base-run shows that the share of home-made electronic products
in the market does not change much over time except a valley
around 1990, The changes as in test-run 3 and test-run 4 have
just a weakened impact on the share. There is only a small
space for such parameters to control the proportion of
domestic production and importation which is believed to be
largely determined by the policy-mechanism and the things
Int 1960 INIEHNATIUNAL GUNFERENCE OF THE SYSTEM DINAMICS SOCIETY. SEVILLA, OCTOBER, 1986.
themselves from the view of long-run.
Because of the vigorous demands and the shortage of funds, the
fulfilment of demands of electronic products would slide into
a deep hollow as shown in Figure 11. The flexible investment
and ‘tmportation policy as in test-run 6 would ease the
situation to some extent, the tightened finance policy like
test-run 5 would then make it worse. Figure 12 tells us that
the electronic industry would develop steadily if we choose
the policy of test-run 5. If we loose the limits to the
investment and importation then the electronic industry would
advance more dynamicly. .
It is believed in the paper that there are many complicated
interactions and feedback relations among the factors in
socioeconomic systems, and what determine the behavior of a
system greatly are the policy parameters and feedback
mechanism, What a policy-maker should do in dealing with
economic problems is not to react the phenomena passively or
to try to reach the goal by brain-born policies, which are no
use to the economic development from the lessons we have got.
How to create more effective policy mechanisms and make
policies inside the policy~space are big problems of
socioeconomists.
V. THE ANALYSES TO THE BEHAVIOR AND RESULTS OF SDEIC,
The behavior modes of a system are mainly determined by the
internal mechanism, The existence of multiorders and nonlinear
relations makes the characteristics of SDEIC special.
V.1 The Stability of SDEIC
It is easy to see in Figure 2 that the main loops in SDEIC are
all negative, then the development of electronic industry
depends largely on the stimuli from the advancement of the
environment. The unbalanced development of EIP and ECP is
because the different responses to the changes in the economy.
The parameter sensitivity analyses indicate that SDEIC is of
better properties of stablization and robustness.
V.2 The Periodicity of SDEIC
The simulations show much of dynamics of SDEIC, one of which
is the periodicity, The short-cycle period is about 4 to 6
years which could be perceived by the investment in ECP
production ‘shown in Figure 8. The investment in EIP production
in Figure 9 or the total investment in electronic industry
then shows the long-cycle period of 15 to 25 years.
The short-cycle in the dynamic behavior of SDEIC is believed
to be caused by the delays of both information and material in
the production, shipment, selling, and investment. The
long-cycle phenomenon is considered the result of unbalanced
response to the changes in enviornment as well as the delays
929
930 — THE 1986 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE SYSTEM DINAMICS SOCIETY. SEVILLA, OCTOBER, 1986.
in SDEIC. Take the production of ECP for example. There would
be a peak of demand for ECP in the coming years because of the
nonlinear demand. function and relative small variance in
income. During this period the market is often in shortage of
supply thereby the producers will gather funds as much as
possible to invest and make the production advance at a higher
rate. But when the peak is over, there would be a overshoot in
production because of the inertia of the system, which then
might induce a drastic declining in the investment, thus a
longer cycle is formed.
The understanding to the periodicity of the development of the
electronic industry would help to make farsight strategy and
to hold the long-run of the electronic industry in China
without much swinging from side to side we have experenced.
V.3 The Evaluation to the Results
In socioeconomic systems, the statistic data are only a small
fraction of the knowledge, of human being, the more important
are the perceptual knowledge and qualitative analyses to the
system. To a nonlinear system with structure and parameters
changing over time, whether the behavior of the model presents
the real system depends not only on how close the output of
the model with that of past world but on the correctness of
the consideration to the structure, the interacting mechanism,
and the likely changes of the system in the future.
The production of the electronic industry is increasing
rapidly these years which is considered the result of
constricted development under closed-door policy for a long
time, but it is impossible to endure so high a speed of
development much longer, The SDEIC model is far from
completed, the results here could only show a general trend of
the development of the electronic industry. But we could still
say, in confidence, something about the future of the
electronic industry in China.
VI. CONCLUSION
The rapid development and wide application of microelectronics
are bringing about drastic changes in socioeconomic activities
worldwidely, which are believed to be the processes of
microelectronization of electronic industry and informization
of socioal life. A system dynamics model is created to
investigate the development of the electronic industry--the
direct applying field of microelectronics in the view of
long-term,
The simulations and analyses show that with the socioeconomic
development and wide application of microelectronics, the
electronic industry will advance at a higher growth rate in a
period of 20 years around 2000, and the output proportion of
the electronic industry out of the total output of society is
expected up to more than 3 percent in about 2005. The main
Vo 2WUIN NWA UWL VUNTERENUS UP IME OYSIEM VINAMIGS SUCIETY. SEVILLA, OCTOBER, 1986. 997
obstacle in this period is the shortage of funds for
investment in the electronic industry. Although the
development of EIP and EEP is very important in socioeconomy,
the production of ECP will dominate the electronic industry in
terms of volume for the period concerned, which is a most
claracteristic in the development in China.
We should make distinctions among the stresses and stages in
advancing the science, technology, and production of the
electronic industry, particularly take notice of the balance
in the development of final electronic products and electronic
components, and try to hold the long trend of the development,
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Research Group of Forecasting the application of microelec-
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Research Institute of The Economic, Technological and Social
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Science and Technology Information Institute of the Ministry
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Science and Technology Information Institute of the Ministry
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Statistical Bureau of China (1986). Almanac of Statistics of
China 1985.
932 THE 1986 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE SYSTEM DINAMICS SOCIETY. SEVILLA, OCTOBER, 1986.
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Figure 5 The base-run of SDEIC (1)
Q 2 fey ° ° Q
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ao a S 9. 9° °
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A:--- The home-made proportion in the market
B:-~— The growth rate of electronic industry
Figure 6 The base-run of SDEIC (2)
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B The share of EIP — Test-run 1
Figure 7 The test-run of SDEIC
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The output of ECP D:... The invest. in ECP sect.
Figure 8 Tha&ubase-run of SDEIC (3)
934 THE 1986 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE SYSTEM DINAMICS SOCIETY. SEVILLA, OCTOBER, 1986.
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Figure 9 The base-run of SDEIC (4)
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Figure 10 The base-run of SDEIC (5)
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The fulfillment of the demand for electronic products
: — Test-run 4 B:--- Test-run 3
Figure 11 The policy-test-run of SDEIC
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The investment in the electronic industry
A:—— Test-run 5 B:--- Test-run 6
Figure 12 The polisy-test-run of SDEIC
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