Computer Modelling of Energy, food and Environment: The
Case of Bangladesh
B. K. Bala
Department of Farm Power and Machinery
Bangladesh Agricultural University
Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
bau @drik.bgd.toolnet.org
Previous efforts on energy modelling are critically examined and a system dynamics
model to simulate population, cattle population, food and energy is presented. This model
is also used to simulate and study the effects of different energy policies. The system
dynamics model is combined with a LEAP model to prepare standard energy balance
sheet, to project energy supply and demand, and to assess the likely impacts of energy
policies on contributions to global warming. The data on projected population, cattle
population, agricultural wastes and animal wastes from the system dynamics model are
fed into the LEAP model. Simulated results show that energy demands in all sectors of
the economy are increasing with time. Simulated results also show that the demands for
biomass fuels are also increasing with time. Demands for biomass fuels, natural gas, oil
and electricity in Bangladesh in 1995 are 67.25%, 16.51%, 9.66% and 3.55% of the total
demand respectively. The greenhouse gases contributing to global warming are also
increasing with time. The simulated results show that biogenic CO2 emissions are
increasing at a faster rate than that of non-biogenic CO2 emissions. Bangladesh is
responsible for a small fraction of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions but could be
seriously affected by climate change.
CC BY-NC-SA 4.0