PROBLEMS OF POPULATION CONTROL IN CHINA
Jia-di-Yu
Xiu-jin Feng
Institute of Systems Engineering
Hefie University of Technology
Hefei, Anhui ,PRC
ABSTRACT
Population is an element in the social system. There are a number of elements in the social
system which will influence the population growth rate. On the other hand,population growth
will,in turn,exert influence on other social elements. We can, therefore, apply the system dy-
namics(SD) model to dealing with the problems of population control. This paper, based on the
investigations carried out in Anhui Province of China,conducts a study of the policies concern-
ing population control in China by use of the system dynamics model.
INTRODUCTION
A rapid population growth will entail a heavy burden on society. In a country ,overpopula-
tion and poverty often go together,since they are twin brothers. Viewed worldwide, the rapid
growth of population will inevitably result in over-quick consumption of world resources, and
human existence will be threatened. Therefore, population control has already received
widespread concern:
Population is an element in the social system. Its growth is influenced by some other ele-
ments in the system ,such as socio-economic level ,educational level scientific and technological
level,and ideological state. A vast population will bring a heavy burden on society and leave a
country poor, that is,it will limit the development rate of these elements in the social system,
such :as’ socio-economic. development, universal cultural education, improvement in science and
technology,and change in ideology. These elements and population are in mutal causality;in
other words, there exists a feedback relationship between them (Fig. 1). In. the figure, the ele-
ment “policy” itself falls into the ideological sphere, but it has a great influence on population
growth. Hence, it is shown separately in the figure.
Population
Policy Tdeology Caltarale: Selence ‘ie
= apes CO
Fig. 1
SYSTEM DYNAMICS '93 611
To bring population growth under control ,we must take the whole society as a system to
be studied . We should find out the social elements in the system which have a close bearing on
population growth and which are the causes that stimulate rapid population growth . We should
analyze the relationship between these elements and population growth. Then we can make use
of the system dynamics model and other models to seek an optimum policy for the control of
population growth. Since society is a. complicated system, the policy for population control
should be a set of concrete measures. These measures have a different validity in population
control,i.e. ,their weights are different. It is necessary that the measures with a bigger weight
be strengthened. The weights of these measures also vary with space and time. First,since the
state of the system (the social conditions )is different in a certain region, and the weight of a
particular measure may be different ,the policy to be adopted may be different. Second, with the
passage of time,the state of the system will change,and the weight of the measure also will
vary. As.a result,the policy for population control must be continually adjusted.
GROWTH OF CHINA’S POPULATION
China is the most populous country inthe world. The result of the nationalwide census in
June 1990 indicated that China’s total population had reached 1. 13 billion, with an increase by
an average of 1. 48% from 1982 to 1990. China is a developing country. The rapid growth and
the vast sum total of its population have already cast a very heavy burden on the state ,thus in-
fluencing the development of its national economy. Therefore,the Chinese Government has
taken birth control_as one of the basic policies of the state and formulated relevant regulations
for family planning.
While the Chinese Government advocates a couple bearing only one child, the policy for
family planning is not very well implemented in practice,especially in rural areas. This phe-
nomenon is comparatively serious in some provinces ,such.as‘in Anhui Province. As a result ,the
rapid growth of population is still causing much concern.
The birthrate in Anhui Province kept declining from 1979 to 1985,but it went up year by
year from 1985 to. 1990. In the year from the second half of 1989 to the first-half of 1990, the
birthrate in Anhui was 25. 04%,the natural population growth rate being 19. 25%,. the Anhui
Government took some measures in 1991; the birthrate began to go down again. The 1990
birthrate in Anhui-was found rarely even in China.
The objective cause of this phenomenon was that Anhui Province was at the period of birth
boom. Since 1986, the number of first-marriage women has been increasing progressively at the
rate of 5% annually. The subjective cause was that no effective measures were sufficiently tak-
en to carry out family planning.
It is very obvious that adequate measures can be taken to control population growth. Peo-
ple are, therefore, finding out what steps and policies should be adopted to control the swift
population growth,
CAUSES OF RAPID POPULATION GROWTH
1. Macro-causes
In the social system, some elements have a direct bearing upon the population (as in Fig.
612 SYSTEM DYNAMICS '93
1). They form a subsystem of population, or called a population system. Now let us analyze
the relationship between the three main macro-elements in the figure and the birth rate.
Suppose the birth rate is y, and the macro contributing element is x, then relationship be-
tween the two is
y = Ae
Where A and-B are regression coefficients.
Anhui is one of the big provinces in China. It covers an area of 139,000 square kilometers.
It has 9 municipalities and 72 counties. Its population in 1990 was 56 million. Anhui Province
can be taken as a sample in our study of the problems of China’s population. ‘We make: use of
the statistical data of Anhui to study the three macro-causes of the rapid increase in population.
(1) Economic Level
We take x, —the average per capita national income in 1991 of each municipality and.coun-
ty—as an index by which to measure its economic level. By using the exponential regression
computation, we can derive
y = 27. Be
Under the conditions in which the confidence limit c =5% ,the result of the test indicates that
the correlationship is explicit.
(2)Level of Education
‘We adopt x, —the ratio of the population with junior middle school education or higher in
1991 to the total local population of each municipality and county—as an index to measuré the
level of education. Also by use of the exponential regression computation, we can derive
y = 36, 32e78
The test indicates an explicit correlationship.
(3) Factors of Policy
Since the government encourages a couple to bear only one child , <; —the one-child rate
of each municipality and county in 1991—is uséd as an index to measure the factors of-policy.
The one-child rate refers to the percentage of the first babies in the total population born in a
year. By use of exponential regression computation, we can obtain
y = 45, 2407 27
The result of the test also indicates an explicit correlationship.
A regression analysis will demonstrate that there exists a negative correlationship between
these three elements and population growth which exerts a relatively big effect. In fact, the
other elements in the figure also bear some relation to birth rate‘and are all the macro-causes of
SYSTEM DYNAMICS '93 613
population growth.
2. Micro-causes
In order to explore measures by which to control population growth, we should study the
more concrete contributing elements in the population system. Through investigations, we can
take the concrete causes and universal phenomena in the population system as elements. There
are altogether 31 factors which have been picked out. Then we can give the adjacency matrix in
accordance with the relation of causality so as to infer the reachability matrix and identify the
levels. Finally, we can make up the system structure model (Fig. 2). In this system structure
model ,the element at the lower level is the cause of the related element at the higher level. Not
only can we find out from.this- model the concrete micro-causes, but we can also get to know
the root macro-causes. These are the economic and cultural elements.
The 31 elements in the system structure model are as follows:
(1)Population
(2)Birth boom
(3)Abandoned girl babies
(4)Multi-birth child-bearing
(5)Early marriage child-bearing
(6)Illegitimacy
(7)Desire to have boy bibies
(8)Many children and grandchildren
(9)Effects of family planning
(10)Sense of the legal system
(11)Moral concepts of the masses
(12)Conditions of the last birth boom
(13)Supporting old people
(14)Income of women
(15)Having a son to carry on his family name
(16) Ancestral influence
(17)Amounts of funds for family planning
(18)Publicity effect of family planning
(19)Number of persons engaged in family planning
(20)Conditions of medical apparatus and instruments
(21) Quality of medical personnel
(22)Political level of cadres
(23)Age structure of population
(24)Family income
(25)Feudal ideas
(26)Government expenditure.
(27)Scientific and technological level
614 SYSTEM DYNAMICS '93
(28)Universal cultural education
(29)Wealth of the society
(30)Education of cadres
(31)Socio-economic level
Ultimate
Result
Social
Fig. 2
MEASURE TO CONTROL POPULATION GROWTH
In order to study how to control population growth, in addition to using the system struc-
ture model to-analyze the cause of rapid population grow.i., we must carry out research on the
measures to reduce population growth and make a further analysis of the effect of these mea-
sures from which we will find some more effective measures.
For this purpose, we have conducted investigations, collected the measures which have
been taken to cut down birth rate, and put forward a number of constructive measures in accor-
SYSTEM DYNAMICS '93, 615
dance with the concrete causes in the structrual analysis mentioned above. We have employed
the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to make the target of family planning and concrete mea-
sures into a hierarchy model(AHP model) ,as shown in Fig. 3. The meanings of the various ele-
ments in the figure are as follows;
A Reducing birth rate
Bi Prohibition of abandoned girl babies
B2 Reducing multiple-birth child-bearing
B3 Control of early-marriage child-bearing
B4 Control of illegitimacy
Cl Getting rid of ideas of having boy babies
C2 — Getting rid of ideas of many children and grandchildren
C3. Doing a good job of family planning
C4 — Strengthening the sense of the legal system
C5 Raising moral level
D1 Running homes for destitute old people
D2 Providing endowment insurance
D3 __ Preferential treatment of only-girl families
D4 - Strengthening household service
D5 __Increasing employment for women
D6 _—_ Improving cultural level
D7 ~~ Strengthening propaganda of family planning
D8 Increasing funds for family planning
D9 ~~ Improving medical apparatus and instruments
D10 Training medical personnel
Dll Strengthening leadership of family planning
D12 Improving quality of cadres
D13° Increasing the number of working personnel for family planning
D14_ Establishing associations of family planning
D15 Strengthening the propaganda of the legal system
D16 Strengthening moral education
Objective
Layer
Criteria
Layer
Policy
Layer
— “i
BD Dp DBD BD
Fig. 3
616 SYSTEM DYNAMICS '93
The AHP model falls into four layers. The first layer A is the target of the system. The second
B is the criteria which embody the target. If the criteria can be achieved, the target can be at-
tained. The third C is the policies which are adopted to fulfil the different criteria. The fourth
D is the concrete measures to implement various policies.
We use AHP to study the validity of different measuures, that is ,their weights. Since we
cannot test the validity of each measure separately, we make use of the Delphi method when de-
termining the weights of various measures ,that is ,experts fill in the judgement matrices which
involve the importance of the various elements within the individual layers in the model. Then,
through computations, the weights of the various measures in the layer D can be obtained.
Judging from the analytical computations ,the most effective measures are in order of ;D8
increasing funds for family planning ;D6 raising cultural level ;D11 strengthening leadership of
family planning; D13 increasing the number of working personnel for family planning; D10
training medical personnel. The importance of other different measures varies in various
places. For example,economic measures have proved to be more effective in poor areas while
propaganda and education are comparatively effective in prosperous areas,
THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL
On the basis of the preceding analytical result, we use the system dynamics method to fur-
ther study the behavior of the population system and the policies regarding population control.
On the lines of the preceding analysis, the main relations of causality in the population system
can be summarised in five aspects. The five main relations of causality are described separately
in the following causal loops;
(1) The relationship between population and education
Quality of Effect
a leading cadres of work |
Funds for Caltural Feudal Desire to have
education level . ~~ ideas boy babies
Early- marriage
child-bearing
Social Population Multiple
economy birth rate «——
Fig. 4
SYSTEM DYNAMICS '93 617
(2) The ‘relationship between population and family planning policy
Funds for
family
planing
Training of Effect of Sence of
——— family plan- family plan- the legal
ning cadres ning work system.
oN res of
Social
economy
Sei «___ Miltiple-
family plannin,
ve 8 Monitoring
pregnancy
Observe discipline of
birth rate family planning
Fig 5
(3) The relationship between population and medical and health work
Training
E of medical
Funds for Funds for personnel a
family —————+ ‘medical Fear of
planning work sequelae of
Conditions Operanon
of medical
apparatus
Observe
Social Population “ re discipline
economy rae of family
planning
Fig. 6
(4) The relationship between population and the status of women
Social Employment Income woial
economy for women of women of women
Multiple Desire
Population birth to have
rate boy babies
Fig. 7
618
SYSTEM DYNAMICS '93
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619
Training Household
«—— of medical Funds for Funds for service
Fear of _ personnel medical family Social
[—— sequelae work. Planning q servi Homes for.
operation _ Conditions oN oldmen
of medical :
apparatus Endowment,
insurance
Social
Sence of Effect of Training Social Employment Income ————+ status ——+
family for family economy for women of women of women
the legal <— . —_— s
planning planning
system
work cadres Feudal
ee ideas |
Funds for Cultural Quality
education level of leaders
Number of
Monitoring cadres of
pregnancy family
planning
. Early- marriage Effect
Population child-bearing of work
Observe Multiple Desire
discipline birth to have <~
of family rate boy babies
planning
Fig. 9
(5) The relationship between population and social service
Household
a service ae’
Social Social Homes for Dede
economy service old—men boy babies
Endowment ae
insurance
Multiple
Population birth
rate
Fig. 8
Combining the above-mentioned five relationships, that is, putting together the five causal
loops from Fig. 4 through Fig. 8, we can obtain a causal loop of the population system (Fig. 9).
The loop in the diagram is a positive feedback loop. The reason for this is that the relationship
between various measures and population is a negative causality while the relationship between
population and social economy is also a negative causality.
Based on the causal loop diagram of the population system, we can draw a system dynam-
ics flow chart and write the system dynamics equations.
When the SD model is used to analyze the validity of the various measures, its conclusion
is basically in comformity with the analytical result obtained by AHP model. Using this SD
model, we can see the validity of the various measures, -and thereby seek the optimum policies
for family planning. Since various measures have different effects in different area,policies for
family planning are not necessarily the same in various areas.. The SD model can be used to in-
fer them separately.
The simulated results of the SD model demonstrate that the birth rate of Anhui province
will be decreased to 16% within next five years, if the actuel policies and measures of family
planning would be continually adopted.
REFERENCE
Forrester ,J. W. 1968. Principle of System. Camb. , Ma. Wright-Allen Press Inc.
Warfield,J. N. 1976. Societal Systems. New York. John Wiley & Sons.
Statistical Almanac of Anhui Province. 1990, 1991.
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