Public Decision Making for Land-Use and Transportation Planning
John Peschon
21439 Santa Clara Rd
Middletown, CA 95461
Table of Contents
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. The US 101 Comidor: Status Report
3. Public Decision-Making (as is)
4. Automobility: Direct, Indirect and Other Costs
5. The Negawatts of Amory Lovins and their
Transportation Equivalent
6. Public Decision-Making (as it should be)
7. Charrettes, Visual Preference Exercises and Sim
City
8 Controllability
9. Supplementary Principles
10. Concluding Comments
References
Appendix A: The State x and Motion in the State
Space x (k)
Appendix B: Ahwahnee Principles
Abstract - The often contentious debate of the US 101
corridor through Marin and Sonoma counties starting at
San Francisco’s Golden Gate Bridge provided the
incentive to write this paper and to refine a decision
structure that is suitable for addressing large publicly
financed transportation projects with significant long-
term socio-economic and ecological impacts upon a
region. This decision structure goes beyond the
traditional cost benefit (or with and without) analyses. It
defines the system state that today’s informed public
would like to see two generations from now. This
“horizon” state comprises a number of interrelated
variables pertaining not only to transportation, but also to
land-use and demography which in tum affects socio-
economic and ecological outcomes. The first goal of this
search for a desirable horizon state is to avoid the kind of
major mistakes involving large-scale public systems that
were made in good faith during the past two generations,
for example, water developments in the Southwestem
U.S. A related goal is to identify new paradigms which
constitute elegant and sustainable solutions, mainly a
network of towns that are relatively compact and have a
match of deomography and the local economy, and thus
eliminate the need for freeway expansion. Actual
regional examples of the new paradigm are described
and the techniques of visual preference and charrettes to
inform and persuade the public are presented.
Leif Isaksen.
1807 Sebastian Dr.
Burlingame, CA 94010
Laszlo Hajdu
1100 Sharon Park Dr. #20
Menlo Park, CA 94025
1. Introduction
This 1998 intemational conference of the
System Dynamics Society is concemed with the
dynamics of large-scale systems. Systems of this type
are rarely of a purely technical, and hence highly
predictable nature because humans are part of the system.
They may be components of the system model (or plant
in control-theoretic jargon) or of the decision-making
process (the controller or law of control). The
methodology of designing a controller which is able to
move the system from its current state, x(0), to its
horizon state, x(H), following an optimal trajectory, is
well developed’. However, in systems containing
humans, the objective function, the horizon state
x(H) and the penalty of ending up in a terminal state
different from x(H), is usually not obvious, nor
necessarily the same for all the involved players.
Moreover, there is generally not a single controller that
executes the law of control associated with the objective
function and the constraints, during the time period from
k=0wk=H.
Regional and urban planning with respect to
land use, transportation, economic development,
demography, ecology, quality of life, and other attributes,
is the subject of this paper. This subject illustrates the
difficulties that result from the human element contained
in both the plant and the controller. How do we link
crime to other state and control variables? We think that
slums are conducive to crime and that police patrols
contain it. This is a plausible qualitative opinion which is
hard to translate into a quantitative input - output relation.
Next, the members of the community often have an
entirely different (and sometimes inconsistent) vision of
what a good city or region should be. Some like
luxurious flats within walking distance of the opera,
others like a 5 acre ranchette in the Hinterland. Last,
there are the decision makers (the City Council or the
Board of Supervisors) who need to be responsive to their
electorate which generally includes special interests as
“The concept of a state and motion in the state space and its
applicability to socio-economic systems is explained in Appendix A
well as followers of widely divergent ideologies. What
one would like to see is a system in which a competent
and steadfast single hand directs the state from x(0) to
x(H). What one usually gets is a much more complex
competitive situation, the dynamics of which are covered
(and not particularly well at this time), by game theory.
However, regional and urban systems can be
subjected to a useful and productive analysis based on
the paradigms of control theory, system engineering and
operations research. Urban Dynamics, by one of the
founders of the System Dynamics Society, [1], is an early
example in which the evolution of specific components
of the urban state was simulated and where valuable and
counter intuitive conclusions were reached.
In our paper we use the same paradigms, but
focus on methodology rather than numerical output. We
insist on the extreme importance of defining a horizon
state x(H), that is both feasible and accepted by the
community. Once this anchor state is known, the
decisions required to get the city or region to that state
are not all that difficult to figure out.
The need for defining x(H) when H is
several generations from today, is philosophically
unacceptable to some. Their argument is that the future
is so uncertain that one should not even attempt to
determine a reasonable course. Related to this anti-
planning philosophy is the free-market laissez-faire
ideology. Indeed, the decisions made by developers tend
to be myopic and localized, the exact opposite of what
Haussmann, the redevelopment czar of Paris during the
period of 1850-1880, forced the developers to do. [2]
Haussmann's Paris is an example of the
hierarchical decomposition which is necessary in the
large-scale regional and urban systems that constitute the
scope of this paper. Haussmann, a_ high-ranking
government employee, was the strategist. He developed
the master plan showing the location of the tree-lined
boulevards, the parks and other elements of the public
realm. He also imposed constraints, such as height
limitation, roof coordination, alignment and style of the
edifices to be sited along these boulevards. It is within
the framework of this master plan and these and other
constraints that private enterprise was unleashed and
gave the world one of its greatest cities. It is unfortunate
that Haussmann's achievement has, to a large extent,
been adulterated by the unbridled and noisy auto traffic
along the boulevards (of which many lost their trees to
make way for parking) and the European version of edge
cities and sprawl development outside the old gates (les
portes).
Paris is one of many case studies that highlight
the overriding importance of defining a horizon state
x (H) . In the field of urban and regional development,
the United States has more than its fair share of disasters,
of which Los Angeles and San Jose are frequently cited
examples. One would think that, by showing the
residents of the greater Los Angeles in 1938 what this
garden of Eden with its orange groves (hence Orange
County) would look like and be like sixty years later,
they might have stormed city hall. A thoroughly
researched forecast of the state x(1998) including the
freeways, the congestion, the air pollution and the hassles
resulting from an inefficient and costly infrastructure
would, one hopes, have triggered the search for a rather
different horizon state x(H). This paper will outline
what this state could have been today in the LA basin and
hopefully will be along the US 101 comidor through
Marin and Sonoma counties.
With the benefit of hindsight, we can now draw
a long list of large-scale systems that are fiascoes which
could have been prevented if the unintended
consequences had been researched before any concrete
was poured and if the true costs (including the full palette
of subsidies and externalized costs) over time had been
disclosed right from the beginning. The award-winning
book, "Cadillac Desert" [3], is a compelling example. It
describes the history of water development in the
Southwestem US after World War I. Aquatic life,
including a thriving salmon industry, has been largely
destroyed; the Colorado River has zero flow, more or
less, when it crosses the border into Mexico; and
California has floods which are largely man-made.
There is much similarity between the auto-
based transportation system and the immense freeway
and arterial infrastructure that it requires, and the unwise
water development, of the Cadillac Desert. In both
cases, the initial small-scale projects spawned powerful
industries and the unintended consequences could be
ignored at the beginning of the process. We will show in
this paper that the various costs associated with
automobility (the term is due to [4] ) are at least equal to
the federal tax load of about 1.7 trillion (T$) dollars and
we refer the reader to the long list of additional non-
economic costs, such as death and injuries, sprawl,
uglification and pollution. In both cases, it is appropriate
to ask if the community might not be better off if the
explosive evolution of these systems had been
recognized early and limited to their unquestioned
advantages, such as civilized enjoyment of the scenery
along country roads. Another large-scale system that
may be running amok is that of the media. The process
which pays for the staggering expense of the programs
relies on income from advertisements. It seems that
close to half of these ads hawk automobility products and
services. In addition, the feedback signals provided by
the Nielsen ratings promote programs of dubious quality.
What should be the state x(H) pertaining to this system
be ina generation or two?
The principal points made in our paper are
summarized as follows:
The evolution of large-scale socio-economic
systems should be constrained by a horizon condition or
state. It should not consist of a sequence of myopic
actions. Much of the methodology of decision analysis
requires that a second boundary condition, that is, the
horizon state or the penalty for not reaching it, be
defined. This methodology is not what caused Soviet
style planning to fail. It is completely consistent with
democratic governance because it involves a well-
informed public in defining the horizon state and it relies
to a large extent on private enterprise to accomplish the
desired evolution from the given initial to the specified
horizon state. This is not command and control, but a
democratic approach based on policy analysis. It makes
it possible for well informed citizens to channel the
activities of special interests in the right direction.
The application used throughout the paper is
automobility, that is, a system for moving people and
freight in a given region that is based mainly on
freeways, highways and arterials. We demonstrate that
this large-scale socio-economic system is incredibly
expensive and we challenge those who claim that it is a
conditio sine qua non of economic development and
prosperity. Recognition of this largely avoidable cost is
of particular importance to the LDC’s which have other
overriding priorities.
The need for transporting people and goods
within a region can be reduced significantly by adopting
a regional urban structure that consists of well defined
interconnected nodes within a network as opposed to the
ubiquitous postwar sprawl pattem of development. This
neo-traditional regional urban structure is spelled out in
the Ahwahnee Principles of Appendix B. In addition it is
necessary to ensure that each node is relatively
independent with respects to its demography and
economy. The Supplementary Principles enunciated in
the paper accomplish this increased independence.
The three points, namely horizon state, high
and avoidable cost of automobility and relatively
independent nodal communities are tied together as
follows: the horizon state helps the citizens define an
efficient and socially satisfying regional habitat; the high
cost of automobility is reduced and the resulting savings
allow the relatively independent nodes to be feasible and
to prosper.
" Lesser Developed Countries
2. The US 101 Corridor: Status Report
The stimulus for this paper came from the
controversial US 101 Comidor through Marin and
Sonoma counties north of San Francisco's Golden Gate.
Despite several expensive upgrades, this main artery
between Healdsburg and San Francisco is congested
much of the time. The Chambers of Commerce demand
additional lanes and other improvements and forecast a
stagnating local economy unless remedial action is taken
promptly. Adding lanes to US 101 is very costly because
many of the existing overpasses would have to be
replaced. A new parallel freeway comparable to
Interstate 280 through the San Francisco peninsula is not
even discussed.
Neither the Federal nor the State Govemments
have taken a lead role in promoting and financing the
proposed improvements. Their position is that a regional
solution largely paid for by regional funds is the way to
go. This practically means a local add-on to the state
sales tax or to the gasoline tax.
There exists an unused track formerly owned
by the Pacific Northwest Railroad (PNWRR) from
Healdsburg to Larkspur from where there is ferry service
to downtown San Francisco. This track was recently
acquired by a consortium of public agencies. It could be
used quickly and at a comparatively modest cost to start
passenger rail service.
The Golden Gate Transit District also operates
a fleet of commuter buses along US 101 from
Healdsburg to downtown San Francisco. These buses
are not significantly affected by congestion along those
segments of US 101 that have high occupancy vehicle
(HOV) lanes. However, about 40 percent of the
highway does not have HOV lanes.
The cost’ of completing the HOV lanes and of
making some other highway improvements including
some non-motorized, but excluding the addition of new
lanes, and to start passenger service on the PNWRR
track and improving bus service was estimated by the
project consultant [5] at 841 M$. The breakdown of the
estimate is 493 M$ for highway improvements and 348
M$ for transit capital improvement and operating
subsidies.
Voter approval in both Marin and Sonoma
counties is required before a sales tax can be levied. It
remains up to the courts to decide if a 2/3 majority is
necessary to satisfy a recent initiative or if a simple
majority is adequate. It is clear from recent polls that
more than 50 percent of the voters will be in favor of the
compromise proposed by Calthorpe. However, if 2/3 is
needed it is virtually certain that the project is dead. This
compromise consists of some highway improvements
* Capital and 10 year net operating cost after farebox recovery
and the beginning of rail passenger service. Omission of
rail service and increasing the scope of highway
improvements, the position favored by the chambers of
commerce and most business interests, would be rejected
by more than 50 percent of the voters according to recent
polls.
The positions advocated by the various factions
and community leaders are summarized and critiqued
below. It should be noted that their views may be
influenced more by ideology and hearsay than by a
thoughtful analysis of facts. However, people vote on
the basis of their perceptions. Thus:
The Business as Usual View: The modem
transportation system is based on freeways and
individual automobile ownership.
But this solution is costly, unsustainable, and
draws increasing opposition from the public.
The Dreamer's View: Let us emulate the Swiss
by building electric rail everywhere and walk to and from
the train or trolley station.
But many Califomians have never been to
Switzerland, nor ridden on a train anywhere. They will
not relate to this dream.
The Micro-Economist's View: If you neglect
the subsidies (the indirect costs) provided by the various
levels of goverment and if you omit the externalized
costs, the freeway-based system makes economic sense.
But the direct cost incurred by the owner of a
car is at least 7000$ per year and that is usually after tax
money. *
The Macro-Economist's View: The auto
industry and the various suppliers of fuel, tires, etc. and
the providers of insurance, financing and other services
employ 1 in 5 Americans.
But these people could be retrained to perform
other services.
The Business Person's View: An efficient,
inexpensive and = decongested _—_freeway-based
transportation system for people, employees and freight
is generally an essential requirement.
* This average cost has been calculated by various organizations
including the Califomia State A utomobile A ssociation.
Fig. 1: The US 101 Corridor from Healdsburg to San
Francisco. Note the Pacific Northwest railroad tracks
and the Larkspur ferry terminal. Less than 60 percent of
the corridor between San Francisco and Healdsburg has
HOV lanes.
(Figure by courtesy of Calthorpe Associates.)
But the single largest industry in Califomia is
tourism which generally opposes the destruction of
scenery and nature that accompanies freeways, especially
after they get lined by strip developments.
The Developer's View: We generally prefer to
site new residential, business and shopping projects on
agricultural properties that are accessible to the auto. We
love to build bedroom communities.
But there is so much urban decay that
development should be channeled into blighted urban
areas, a planning technique referred to as “infill” which is
generally shunned by conventional developers.
The Taxpayer's View: No new taxes!
But there are many services that the community
needs and that can be provided more efficiently by local
govemment than by individuals or private enterprise.
Examples are the public realm, parks and greenways.
The mistake to be avoided is to finance bad projects with
your taxes and to justify such projects by saying that they
create jobs.
The Anti-Growth View: We do not want
freeways (nor trains) because they bring about undesired
growth of people and development. We do not mind
being called NIMBY's (not in my backyard).
But quality development in __ blighted
communities would benefit the NIMBY 's too by raising
their property values and by providing useful amenities.
The Commuter's View: 1 am spending three or
more hours per working day stuck in traffic. I enjoy the
privacy of my car, but Govemment is responsible for
outbuilding highway congestion.
But in the Eastem US, many commuters take
the train, read a book, and do not seem to mind sitting
next to strangers.
The Farmer's View: | inherited the family farm
and I love agriculture; it is my way of life. I do not
welcome development.
But older or unsuccessful farmers want to be
able to sell their land to a developer and move to a condo
in Palm Springs.
The Bank of America et al Point of View, [6]
(paraphrased by these authors): Freeways and
automobility are the principal cause of sprawl. Sprawl
requires a very expensive and inefficient infrastructure
which our cities and counties can no longer afford.
But 1 do not want to be forced into an infill
development in which the existing infrastructure can be
utilized. In addition, my property taxes, as a rule, do not
reflect the true cost of my share of the infrastructure.
Where is my incentive to stay close to the City core?
The Humanist's View: 1 want a society which
does not ruin this word with noise, air and visual
pollution and which aims to provide quality of life for all.
But global competitiveness is the name of the
survival game.
In November 1998, the voters of the counties
of Sonoma and Marin will, in all likelihood, be asked to
accept or reject a sales tax increase of 0.5 percent lasting
10 years to pay for the rail and highway improvements
recommended by Calthorpe. The range of opinions
enumerated in the previous paragraphs suggests that the
required majority may not be there. The real possibility
of failure became evident when a recall effort aimed at
ousting the no-growth majority of Windsor’ City
Council was overwhelmingly rejected by this bedroom
community, the phenomenal growth of which was fueled
by US 101.
In a 1996 public meeting called to discuss the
need for addressing the congestion of US 101, the
prestigious A and E firm Parsons Brinkerhof, presented
slides of various sections of the highway including ramps
and overpasses that would be needed in 2020 if the
business-as-usual, including the freeway-only scenario,
were adopted [7]. Images of the 20 lane monstrosity
suggested to much of the audience that a different path
was needed.
This different path, variously referred to as
TOD (transit oriented development), neotraditional town
planning, is inspired by the Ahwahnee Principles of
Appendix B. These principles are augmented by the
socio-economic Supplementary Principles developed in
section 9 of this paper.
3. Public Decision-Making (as is)
The subject of primary interest is regional land
use and transportation planning in the context of the US
101 comidor as well as numerous similar situations
elsewhere in the United States and the world at large.
The discussion will summarize the methodology used by
urban and regional planners. However, the terminology
and ways of thinking of the system engineer will be
introduced for the purpose of illuminating this subject
from a different and perhaps more thought-provoking
direction.
The With/Without Analysis
Considering that the cost of alleviating
congestion along the 101 Corridor will be at least one
billion, there certainly is sufficient justification to do a
thorough examination of the altematives and to subject
these altematives to a cost/benefit or a with/without
analysis. The methodolgy consists of creating two
evolution scenarios over typically a 20 or 30 year period
and to calculate the discounted sum of the net costs, that
is, actual capital and operating cost incurred, and of the
benefits realized. The first evolution scenario assumes
no project and is therefore referred to as the without or
base case. The second scenario assumes a precisely
defined project, such as widening US 101 and
completing the HOV lanes. Comparison of these two
scenarios provides the present worth of the stream of
costs C and the benefits B that the with scenario incurs
and yields, respectively, over the base case. The ration
B/C is the magic number which decision makers use to
justify or reject a project.
This rather standard approach to analyze the
merits of a proposed major improvement of a large-scale
system has numerous flaws. If the list of altematives
excludes a not-so-obvious innovation, then the wrong
project may be chosen. Similarly, if the stream of costs
excludes intangible or suspected but not officially
accepted components (e.g. global warming) and if the
stream of benefits excludes components that economists
tend to reject because they are subjective (eg. aesthetics,
quality of life or resilience), then again the wrong project
may be chosen. Moreover, the driver is demand. The
most common method for forecasting demand is to do a
straight line extrapolation on a semi-log graph of past
demand observations. This technique, of course, does
not take into account unplanned extemal changes,
perhaps a technical innovation such as the intemet or drip
imigation, nor planned or mandated changes, such as
cities in which most walk to work or agricultural systems
in which crops are matched with soils and climates. It is
this KISS for keep it simple, stupid doctrine that may
well be the most appropriate solution to our congestion
‘woes.
The following description of the planning
methodolgies and realities in urban and regional contexts
will confirm that the highly touted with/without or similar
analyses may not be the way to go. These analyses tend
to be focused on a specific project, such as widening of
US 101, when in fact a more integrated approach which
may include changes of life style is needed.
Land use planning usually takes place within
the community, that is, a city or an unincorporated
section in a county. By law, the community is required
to create a general plan and to update it every 5 years.”
This general plan is contained in a report the chapters of
which address the following elements: population
projections, land use, transportation, housing, safety,
environmental impacts, economy. The planning period
is typically twenty years. The authors of the plan are the
city or county staff, often helped by outside consultants; a
major contributor is (or should be) the public. The
general public is usually represented by an appointed
advisory committee. The final product is sanctioned by
the City Council or the Board of Supervisors. Perhaps
the most important by-product of the general plan is the
“ These are the requirements of the State of Califomia. Other states and
countries usually have a similar methodology.
zoning code which specifies what can be built on a given
parcel and to what extent it can be subdivided.
The zoning code classifies the land as
residential, light commercial, industrial, agricultural etc.
The developers use this code as a basis for their projects.
Transportation within the city consists almost exclusively
of cars and trucks in most parts of the United States. The
auto and truck traffic is a dependent variable, because it
is determined by the land use that results form the
general plan, the zoning code, the demography and the
local economy.
Regions, which can cover a number of
contiguous counties, are in general not required to create
a general plan. Therefore the state variables that
characterize the region, notably those related to the
demography and the traffic are in fact dependent
variables. They are determined by the land use,
economy and demography of the cities and villages
contained within the region.
System engineers are trained to design large-
scale systems that optimize a stated objective function.
Their question to regional and urban planners would be:
What is your objective function and how do you go
about optimizing it? The planners’ answer is likely to be
the general plan, the associated zoning code and the use
permits which limit to some extent what businesses are
allowed to do in the city. They will add that local
politics, influenced by campaign finance obligations and
pledges, can often override the general plan and that the
advisory committee which helped create this plan in the
first place was appointed by the city or county and
therefore does not necessarily represent the community at
large.
Accretion is the technical term which
characterizes this non-optimal and not very predictable
motion of a city's state. In addition, the motion of the
states corresponding to the cities contained in a region is
generally not well coordinated. Some planners,
economists and ideologists, say that we need accretion,
because it gives our cities their own specific character
and charm and it allows the entrepreneurs to realize their
dreams.
Policy analysis is the discipline that was
evolved to optimize large-scale engineering-economic
and socio-economic systems with respect to a stated
objective function and constraints. If applied to a region,
such as Sonoma and Marin, it would presumably
discover better ways to use the land and to transport
people and freight. The problem with this discipline is
that it often restricts the freedom of action of entrenched
special interests, although it could well promote the birth
of new businesses. In the context of the 101 Corridor,
there is little doubt that thoughtful policy analysis, if it
had been done in, say 1960, would have predicted the
sprawl and congestion that have been the result of a
generation of accretion. It might even have
recommended partnerships between the govemment
hierarchy (cities, counties, state and the Federal Highway
Administration) and the special interests that would have
created wealth and the good life, and avoided the
unnecessary ecological and visual degradation of this
prime residential and tourist area.
4. Automobility: Direct, Indirect and
Other Costs.
‘Automobility' is the term coined by Tengstrom
in [4] to denote the way of life that came about when the
automobile (and the truck) essentially replaced public
transit and the regional railways after World War II in
the United States. Since then, the private automobile
(and the truck) have also become the dominant form of
transportation in Europe, and that includes Switzerland
with its exceptional rail and bus (Postauto) transportation
system. Unless there is a major change in attitudes or
regulation, the auto (and the truck) will also dominate
transportation in the LDC's (the lesser developed
countries) including the population giants, China and
India [8].
Europe and many of the LDC's have public
transportation and rail which, by US standards, is above
average to excellent. Despite this and considering that
gasoline may cost as much as $5/gallon because of
taxation, people insist on using their cars under often
appalling conditions of congestion. A fundamental
question to be posed is: why would they want to spend a
significant fraction of their income on an appliance that
they really do not need, often cannot afford, and that is
guaranteed to radically change their habitat and
environment?
There are three principal reasons for this
apparent irrational behavior on the part of the auto users:
- They are largely ignorant of the true costs of the auto
(and truck).
- They desire to own and operate a heavy piece of
machinery, to have privacy inside the machine, and to
impress others with it These are important
psychological justifications.
- They really neither understand nor appreciate the long
term impact upon the environment, the community and
the best features of a traditional way of life.
Increasingly, lack of access and essential
mobility to those who do not drive has become a major
handicap, because quality public transit and compact
walk-to-work habitats, are often not provided or
discouraged.
Many car owners like to believe that the cost of
driving is not much more than the cost of gasoline, which
is affordable to most. They fail to include other direct
costs, such as their capital, financing, insurance,
ownership-related taxes, repair and maintenance,
parking, tolls, and fines. What seems to be missing is an
understanding of basic home economics and a
willingness to accept the true costs, which is about $7000
per year for a rather modest car that is driven less than
16,000 kilometers. For most, the $7000 is an after-tax
expense, which means that they need to eam $10,000 or
more for the car alone.
In addition to these direct costs bome by the
owner, there are significant indirect costs bome by the
taxpayer (who may not drive) and intangible costs bome
by the community. Indirect costs comprise subsidies to
build and operate highways and parking lots, pay for the
highway patrol and the judicial system. About 20
percent of the cost of educating a child in Califomia is
siphoned off by the institution of the school bus. The
Economist reports that all of the indirect costs have been
estimated to total 4 percent of the GDP in the European
Union. This would amount to $300 billion plus per year
in the US if the same figure of 4 percent were applicable
as, we believe, itis.
The remaining costs are referred to as
intangible because they are difficult to estimate. They
include the loss of tourist income because tourists seek
unspoiled scenery, loss of productive farm land, failure
of traditional downtown business districts because malls
offer free parking and often lower prices, the cost of
mandatory free employee parking bome by the
employers or the city which allows free or below-cost
parking along its streets, the health consequences of air
and noise pollution, and of stress when you are late for an
appointment or when you just avoided a bad accident.
And then there is the enormous intangible cost of time
wasted in traffic jams. At the minimum wage of $5 an
hour, this translates into a loss to the individual and/or his
employer of at least another 20 billion $ per year.
Related to this intangible cost is the additional travel time
that people budget when they want to be absolutely sure
to get to their destination, say a business appointment, on
time. Finally, Hubbard states in [10] that oil prices are
kept low in the US because of a number of subsidies that
the Federal Govemment pays. One particularly
significant subsidy is the US military presence in the key
oil producing areas outside the US, such as the Gulf
region, from which we import a dominant fraction of our
oil needs. Hubbard estimates that the true cost of
gasoline would double if the consumer had to pay
directly for these subsidies at the pump, rather than
indirectly in his Federal tax.
The intangible costs are paid by the individual
and/or the community and should be viewed as an
additional tax. In all faimess, one should deduct the
economic benefits of access and mobility, that the system
retums to those who can afford a car and are allowed to
drive. However, the system is exclusionary, because it
makes access and mobility awkward or even impossible
to adolescents, adults with certain disabilities, and those
who cannot afford a car or simply do not drive.
There are over 140 million autos in the US. At
$7000/year, the direct costs are one trillion” . Add the
indirect costs of 0.3 trillion and forget about the
intangible costs and benefits, the total is 1.3 trillion out of
aGDP of 8 trillion. It is almost equal to the federal tax
revenue. For most, the direct and indirect costs are the
biggest expense after shelter and before health care,
education and food.
Is 1.3 trillion a reasonable estimate of the direct
and indirect (but not intangible) costs of automobility in
the United States? Hubbard insists in [10] on the
difficulties that economists have in allocating these
indirect costs. How does one allocate the significant time
the courts spend on the civil suits, criminal prosecutions
and incarceration, among others for driving while
intoxicated? However, we believe that 1.3 trillion is not
an overstatement. The US News and World report [11]
state that the true cost of gasoline should be $6.6/gallon
fo compensate the community fore the indirect and
intangible costs. The resulting tax revenue would be
about $5.0 x 200 109 gallons, that is, another trillion
assuming an annual consumption of 200 billion gallons
of fuel used by cars and trucks. In addition there is the
direct cost of 1 trillion to the owner.
5. The Negawatts of Amory Lovins and
their Transportation Equivalent.
In 1976 the Joumal of Foreign Affairs
published, "Energy Strategy: The Road Not Taken?" by
Lovins. This paper influenced in a major way the energy
conservation policies pursued by the Carter
administration, by many foreign govemments and by
specific sectors of the economy, notably the electric
utilities, the building industry, and various research and
development organizations. The term "Negawatt" (NW),
coined later by Lovins, [9] provides an easy summary of
his work: If you can save a megawatt by using
fluorescent, rather than the more common incandescent
lights or by insulating your house, then your power
company will not have to build and operate this
megawatt of power plant capacity and you will not have
to pay for it’ The saved megawatt, of course, is the
Negawatt.
It is significant that this technical paper
appeared in Foreign Affairs. The Middle East war of
* There actually are 200 million autos, of which we estimate 60 million
to be under-used and therefore ignored in our calculation.
1974 and the oil embargo was a wake-up call for all
those countries which depend heavily on imported oil
and gas.
We suggest that regional transportation should
look hard at an analogous quantity, namely the Nega
kilometer (Nkm). The Nkm is similar to the NW in the
sense that it is intended to be painless and to be a good
deal for the individual as well as the community.
Moreover, the rate structures in Califomia and some
other states were changed to reward those utilities that
successfully promoted energy conservation. A similar
reward structure can be developed in connection with
Nkm's in order to get the private sector motivated.
It tums out that a group of prestigious urban
planners got together in 1992 at the Ahwahnee Lodge in
Yosemite National Park. The meeting was called by the
Local Govemment Commission and the objective was to
enunciate a recipe for better urban and regional planning.
The resulting recipe became the Ahwahnee Principles of
Appendix B. These principles advocate a retum to
traditional compact cities with a Main Street, parks,
greenways and, perhaps most importantly, an urban
growth boundary or greenbelt to prevent sprawl and
discourage annexations. On a map, cities designed
according to Ahwahnee would be nodes linked by
branches of public transit, preferably rail-based, and
roads rather than freeways. This vision is the exact
opposite of the low density developments without a
boundary nor a well defined center for shopping and
community buildings and, most of the time, no
convenient public transit, that became the rage after
World WarII. Andres Duany, one of the signators of the
Ahwahnee Principles and co-author of [12], mentions
Princetown, New Jersey, and Sonoma, Califomia, as
examples to be emulated. One of the authors (Peschon)
is a resident of Sonoma. He generally agrees with
Duany, but regrets that all but the center surrounding the
historical plaza was built up after WWII in accordance
with the usual sterile sprawl and strip development
prescription. Regional bus transport exists, but is
impractical. However, those who live in or near the
historical section, can walk to many destinations and thus
accumulate Nkm's. The best examples of towns that
satisfy the Ahwahnee Principles, as well as the
supplementary principles to be enunciated in section 9,
are the hill towns of Tuscany and Provence. It may be
that the fortification walls acting as urban growth
boundaries plus legislation to preserve _ historical
structures and districts explain why these thriving
modemized medieval towns are food for thought and
inspiration. Some will argue that Volterra or Siena are
special cases that could not be duplicated in most other
regions of the world. It is true that their well preserved
historical buildings constitute an important tourist
attraction. But, in addition, they have a thriving
economy that is generally owned and operated by well
trained local merchants, artisans and trades. The end
result is a prosperous community without ghettos nor
significant social conflicts. We assert that this model can
be duplicated in, among others, North America and we
propose the Ahwahnee and the Supplementary Principles
as a road map to accomplish this even though there is no
medieval architecture.
The Ahwahnee Principles, together with a
recognition by community leaders and volunteers and a
progressive legislature, that a change of course is
necessary, were used by Portland, Oregon, and the
surrounding region to create a model for regional
development. The community leaders founded the
NGO* 1000 Friends of Oregon [13]; the legislature
allowed a regional governmental structure to be voted in
to assure coordination and avoid competition between
cities. The chief planning consultant was Calthorpe, also
a signator of the Ahwahnee Principles. In the San
Francisco Bay Area, the non-profit group Urban Ecology
was funded by several foundations to create "Blueprint
for a Sustainable Bay Area" [14] for the nine county
region, which includes Marin and Sonoma. The
recommendations not only address land-use and
transportation, but also include economic development,
demographic and quality-of-life issues.
If we accept that the production of Nkm's is
indeed an important objective, then we must seek
demographic diversity in each node of the network and
avoid bedroom communities. However, each node must
also have a diverse local economy which is matched to
its demography. Single industry company towns should
be avoided because of the boom-bust transients and the
Jack of demographic diversity that usually results.
The regions surrounding Stockholm and
Helsinki experimented with satellite cities, such as
Vallingby and Farsta near Stockholm and Tapiola near
Helsinki. The design of these nodal cities dates back to
before and shortly after WWII. The planners’ intention
was to limit the growth of the capitals by channeling
additional development into small (under 50,000
population), compact and relatively self-contained
habitats within 20 minutes or less by public
transportation to the centers of the capitals. The result is
a partial success. The concept of a self-contained habitat
in which a local economy would provide employment
and shopping failed and too many residents commute.
Also, these satellites are everything but architectural
landmarks, unlike Stockholm and Helsinki.
The same concept of satellite cities has been
tried elsewhere including the United States. The post
WWII projects of Reston and Columbia near
Washington, DC were also intended to he relatively self-
“Non govemmental organization
contained, but too many of their residents now commute.
More recently, Laguna West near Sacramento, suffered
the same fate: it attracted one major employer, Apple,
the prospects of which are somewhat uncertain. These
partial successes suggest that there should be more
formal regional coordination of the type pioneered in
Oregon to ensure that the existing and future nodal cities
remain in fact relatively self contained and do not end up
becoming bedroom communities. Competition among
proximate cities for new employers and malls, together
with access by freeways seem to put nascent nodal cities
at a disadvantage.
Kilometers are not only accumulated by the
private car, but also by trucks which range from the UPS
style delivery vehicle to the 18 wheeler. In [15], the
renowned urbanologist Jane Jacobs promotes the concept
of relatively self-contained local economies. This, of
course, is related to the desired diverse demography. It
results in the Nkm’s of freight because Sonoma residents
can buy their bread from the Sonoma baker, who recently
won first place in the Intemational Bread Baking
Competition in Paris, rather then truck it in from a baking
factory in Minnesota.
The fact that automobility and the resulting
kilometers provide 1 out of 5 Americans (or Europeans)
with a job and therefore should be encouraged is a faux
argument. Some of these people could become
educators or work to improve the country's housing (a
gargantuan task) provided that there is a plan that allows
for a smooth occupational transition over a period of
years.
6. Public Decision-Making (as it should be)
Forrester’s Urban Dynamics [1] demonstrated
that the evolution of a city could be represented by the
familiar state transition equations
x(k +1) =t[x(u), u(k), v(k)]
where: x =state, a vector of components X;
u =control or decision, a vector of
components UL j
v =perturbation, a vector of components V ,,
k= discrete time, usually a year
He simulated the evolution of a subset of x,
namely housing, economic development and work force
skills for a section of Boston. He proved that the city's
decision to create affordable housing would hurt the local
economy because people with inferior skills would be
attracted.
We intend to use the concepts of control theory,
system engineering and operations research somewhat
differently. Our goal is to develop a framework for
regional and urban decision making that utilizes these
concepts as a way of thinking in addition to a way of
simulating dynamics.
Perhaps the most important component of this
way of thinking is the horizon state x(H), where the
planning horizon H should be two or more generations in
the future, say 2060. Public decisions are often purely
reactive, that is H =0, or short-term and therefore
myopic, thatis H =10 to 20. Decision-makers do not
want to look at H =60+, because, they argue,
extemal forces v cannot be predicted. Population growth
that far ahead is cited as an example of this uncertainty.
We counter this by saying that it is precisely under those
conditions of uncertainty that we have to define our long-
range vision x (H) and to gain a position that allows us
to control our destiny.
One of the key components of x(H) is the
footprint of the nodal city which is determined by the
urban growth boundary (UGB). This footprint may be
limited by geography, resources, the desires of the
existing population and, increasingly, the preference for
minimal traffic. A city of 10km* with a population of
100,000 (40 per acre) was analyzed in [18] from the
point of view of its transportation needs. These were
modest compared to those of a standard low density
layout. The transportation system relied largely on
walking, light rail and cab. It was surprisingly
inexpensive and, of course, non-exclusionary. This
system was also very predictable, which is not at all the
case for mainly private car based traffic. This excellent
predictability results for the following reasons:
- public transit has a much greater (by a factor of 20 or
more) capacity measured in people per hour and per lane
(or track) than a car based system.
- the need to use motorized transport is greatly
reduced because many origin-destination points are
within walking or cycling distance.
What if the UGB tums out to be too
constraining in, say 2010? The answer should generally
be, “Add a new nodal city to your regional network and
do not upset a carefully planned x (H ) J
The state x(H) has numerous components in
addition to footprint and population size. Ideally, it
should be a place where people are prosperous, have a
good life, enjoy each other's company and do not have to
wony about crime and pollution. These attributes
translate into other state variables, such as the
infrastructure state, the economic development state, the
education and skill states, and the city's financial state.
This last state variable largely determines whether the
state x(H), as well as intermediate states x(k) are
feasible. If the income from taxes and fees is insufficient
to provide infrastructure, vocational education, crime
prevention and other social services, the city will do a
"Bridgeport’.’ A reduced state model of a city is
described and its evolution is optimized in [16].
The feasibility condition of x(H) is crucial.
The visionaries must demonstrate that the interaction
between these state variables leads to a stable
equilibrium. The Ahwahnee Principles augmented by
the Supplementary Principles of Section 9 ensure that
major inefficiencies, social anomalies, and outside
influences have been addressed and that the city's
revenues are adequate to take care of the parks, enforce
ordinances and participate in economic development and
culture. These two sets of principles also ensure that the
increasingly important constraint of sustainability is
respected, again because the city and the region are
efficient in their use of resources and innovative in their
disposal of effluents and wastes.
Assuming that the community has been able to
define a feasible x(H) what process should it use to
move from its current state x(0) toward x(H)? In
other words, how does it pick the control sequence
u(0), u(1)...u(H —1) to get there without too much
wasted motion? In [16], the optimizer contained within
Excel was used to find the best sequence u(k). In
actuality, one would focus on the first decision u(0),
then estimate the state x (1) at time k = Land focus on
the next decision u(1). This focusing can be done with
the help of a standard spread sheet product such as Excel
and/or with a commitment by the community to
implement the Ahwahnee and Supplementary Principles
as expeditiously as allowed by prudent budgetary
practice. These principles should prevent the
inefficiencies resulting from the construction of roads
and buildings that are inconsistent with x (H) and
therefore will be tom down before the end of their useful
life.
This planning methodology constitutes in effect
a control system which is designed to reach a target state
x(H) attime H. The motion from x(0) tox(H) can
be optimized with respect to a stated objective, for
instance minimum discounted cost, and subject to
various constraints, for instance maximum debt by the
city. A mathematical optimization would require models
* Bridgeport is the name of a city in the wealthy State of Connecticut
which had to file for bankruptcy when the middle class emigrated
because of too much crime and too few services. Bridgeport
exemplifies an urban downward spiral.
10
for the state transition equation which can be developed
when socio-economic variables are involved as was
demonstrated by Forrester in [1]. The Ahwahnee and
Supplemental Principles act as a /aw ofcontrol
u =g[x(k),k;x(H)]
which will normally get the current state x (k) tox(H)
if x(H) is a feasible state. This non-optimal process
has the additional advantage of being understood by the
community whose continued support is a condition of
success. A somewhat simplistic way of looking at the
Jaw of control is that it compares the current state x(k)
tox(H) and generates a correction u(k) designed to
reduce the difference between x(k) and x(H).
The methodology presumes that the city
constitutes a steadfast decision maker that does not
deviate from its goal, namely x (H) during the
transition. In actuality, the decisions and votes of the
council, are influenced by a variety of special interests
ranging from corporations to seniors. Nevertheless, the
methodology has great value as a policy analysis tool: It
can be used to show the community what is doable if a
unified front can be built. Let us not forget that activists,
foundations and NGO's have succeeded in giving us
environmental protection laws that hurt some special
interests (but benefit others), in reducing the
consumption of tobacco products and in virtually
Danning land mines.
In addition to a consensus by the community to
evolve toward x(H), itis necessary to enlist the help of
the special interests that could derail the community's
plan in a number of ways including campaign finance
pledges, recalls, and carefully packaged partial truths.
The community is usually in a position where it can assist
many of these special interests in retum for their support.
In section 8 below, we give the wish list of a world class
electronics manufacturer to support our notion that
partnerships between local govemment and many,
though perhaps not all, special interests can be devised.
How realistic is the stipulation x(H) ata time
when regulations and stipulations are frequently
attacked? It would seem that the evolution of a city ora
region should be approached to some extent like the
design of a complex piece of technology, such as the new
Boeing 777. The 777 project team began by defining its
objective x(H) consisting of the airliner’s
specifications as well as the production and marketing
structures. Imagine the chaos that would result from an
open-ended sequence of additions to and changes of the
airframe.
Las Vegas and New Orleans are examples of
cities that did not evolve to become major convention
centers by chance. There was a horizon state with which
many might disagree, but the objective was
accomplished.
7. Charrettes, Visual Preference Exercises
and Sim City.
Local govemment should (and usually does)
take the initiative in formulating the mandated general
plan and zoning code. This makes sense because the
city's or county's staff has the required expertise and land
use data base. The community's opinion is solicited.
However, the city (or county) retain considerable power
in shaping the community's opinion. In the context of
this paper, the all-important horizon state, x (H) , should
be defined by a collaboration of staff and community
with staff providing much of the leadership.
The charrette, is one methodology that has
proven to be highly effective in educating the members
(staff and citizens) of this collaboration. The
methodology consists of structured sessions in which
professional urban planners work with community
representatives to create a future snapshot of the city's
land-use, transportation and other attributes. Ref. [12]
gives remarkably detailed outputs of this exercise. The
desired end result is a feasible layout that also articulates
the community's real desires and therefore is likely to be
realized. The charrette effectively demonstrates to the
participants the reality that compromises must be made,
otherwise the plan is not feasible. Example: Y ou cannot
have a city with low traffic if you allow residential
development in the hills beyond the periphery. A
shortcoming of the charrette is its focus on the land-
use/transportation bipole and its lack of explicit
consideration of the economic development/taxation and
demography/land value bipoles.”
The visual preference methodology, [17],
constitutes another effective way of eliciting the real
desires of the community and of enlisting their support
for the resulting plan. It uses computer aided design and
imaging to display what a section of town would end up
looking like if a specific zoning map or landscaping plan
were adopted. You would be amazed what a row of
mature trees could do to beautify a sterile urban arterial.
Sim City 2000 is the popular computer game in
which the player acts as the city administrator. The state
contained in the forward simulation includes components
for urban planning, traffic, economic development,
taxation, demographics, land-value, crime, disasters and
"In [18], a bipole is defined as a subsystem the variables of which have
strong connections
ait
more. The simulation is accompanied by eye (and ear)
catching displays. If the city administrator's plan is
poorly coordinated in time and space, the residents (the
Sims) vote with their feet and the city does a Bridgeport.
We used Sim City 2000 in [18] to analyze the impact
upon traffic, air pollution, cost and wasted time of each
of six rather different land-use strategies of a 100,000
people city. We concluded that a new version (referred
to as Sim City 2001) with greater attention to the real
world and more convincing relations between variables
would give city staff an extremely powerful tool for
analyzing the short and long term consequences intended
(as well as unintended), of the administrator's and the
community's decisions. Sim City 2001 remains to be
written. It should be kept in mind, however, that Sim
City 2000 assumes virtually no interaction within and
beyond the surrounding region. That assumption just
does not hold up in bedroom communities like Windsor
or anomalies like Palo Alto which has a population of
60,000 and employs 70,000.
The one-acre tile is the segmentation used in
Sim City 2000. Thus, 25,000 tiles would be needed in a
city of 100km’. Each tile might have to be characterized
by 10 state variables. The resulting simulator would
consist of 250,000 state variables. This seems
impractical. The approach of [1] in which the
segmentation covers much larger areas together with
efficient techniques to aggregate the attributes within
each segment, for example the number of square meters
of commercial floor space, would lead to a much more
usable urban analyzer and what if? interlocutor.
A serious weakness of Sim City 2000 and other
available analysis methods pertains to the modeling of
the auto traffic that would result 10 or 20 years from now
after major modifications in land use, demography,
traffic regulations, (such as pedestrian zones), were
implemented in accordance with the Ahwahnee (or
similar) principles. Traffic models that are based on a
near future extrapolation of the current observed situation
are accurate enough. That is not generally so when a
long term prediction in the presence of major changes of
the rules is desired. However, we found in [18] that ina
city designed in accordance with the Ahwahnee
Principles, and with frequent public transit service, traffic
is no longer an issue, simply because the redesigned city
does not generate much traffic nor facilitate cruising.
Two of the authors grew up in Europe right after World
War II. Their recollection is that there was very little
auto-traffic because most of the auto stock had been
destroyed, and yet the cities functioned quite well. Life
in some countries, notably France and the Benelux trio,
was rather pleasant and there was no pressure yet to
widen the boulevards and to install urban freeways,
partly because a good public transport infrastructure was
in place.
The Supplementary Principles of Section 9
similarly simplify the interconnected models of the
bipoles demography/land value and economic
development/ taxation. The reason for this is that
diversity of the population throughout the city and
diversity of the local economy are stated objectives
which should be reached before 2060. If the
demography is fairly homogenous (most belong to the
middle class) and the economy is not dependent on one
or two employers, this pair of bipoles can also be
represented by a few state variables each.
It would be very useful, we think, if staff could
display to the community how the retained state variables
would evolve over time and demonstrate that the horizon
state x(H) would indeed be reachable and stable. This
horizon state, we repeat, should constitute a match of the
demography and the local economy.
This same simulator could also be used to
explore the dynamics of the current socio-economic
vogue which comprises globalization and downsizing,
and rejects import replacement and wage standards.
Some opponents with impeccable credentials argue that
the resulting horizon state is unstable because the
impoverished population will not have enough money to
support a consumerist economy.
Finally, there is the land value half of the
demography bipole. It needs to be included in the
simulator because of its dominant impact upon the
spending power of the people after they paid their rent or
mortgage. We do not know of an interactive simulation
complemented by an effective display that addresses
these issues and demonstrates to the community that the
postulates of Jacobs and of these authors, are indeed right
on target.
8. Controllability.
The mayor of Los Angeles was recently asked
what he could do about crime in the city. His answer
was "Nothing". This response underlines the lack of
control under which local govemments are expected to
function.
As was pointed out earlier, regional as well as
urban traffic is largely the result of the urban state,
specifically the imbalance between the demography of a
city (or a sector of a city) and its employment, shopping
and educational destinations. It is clear that over-
investment in freeways and arterials, coupled with
subsidized automobility, compound this imbalance. The
saying goes, "If you build, they will come" and that
explains sprawl.
Therefore, one way to control the imbalance
between demography and destinations is to expand
12
freeways, arterials and free parking lots with great
reluctance and to make sure that the users bear the true
cost, as will be the case if and when congestion pricing
schemes are installed. This same reluctance to build and
subsidize should also apply to public transit, especially
new subways, which are incredibly expensive.
Local governments have considerable power to
regulate land-use by referring to the general plan and the
zoning code which they helped shape in the first place.
They can also regulate to some extent the type and size
of businesses that are welcome in the city. In the event of
a controversy, typically when a McDonald or a Walmart
propose to install golden arches or a big box, the city
council may find it prudent to put approval or rejection
on the ballot. The same prudence often applies when an
urban growth boundary or aesthetic constraints on
structures are an issue. In the latter case, the opponents
argue that aesthetics are subjective and therefore should
not be regulated. The same argument is used when the
city's architectural consultant wants to impose stylistic
uniformity, height limitations or alignment of buildings
along the sidewalk.
Yet, the amount of control that local
government has in the socio-economic arena is generally
even less than is the case in the land use arena for the
following reasons:
- State or federal law usually bans regulation in those
cases when an individual's rights or the interplay of
market forces is restricted.”
- The case that a community can benefit from socio-
economic control remains to be made in specific
instances.
The controversial subject of rent control is used to
illustrate the issue. The argument in favor is that rapid
increases in demand will not and should not force tenants
to move out and, perhaps, become long-distance
commuters. The argument against is that rent control
discourages investors from increasing the rental housing
stock which, in due time, would force rents down to the
point where the investor has an adequate, but not
exorbitant, rate of retum on his investment. An adequate
ROI plus stable rents can be and have been obtained in
intelligently managed rent control situations.
A related example is the explosive increase in
industrial and residential land costs in much of the
Silicon Valley, notably Palo Alto, population: 60,000;
employment: 70,000. In addition to the long distance
commute, there is an undesirable erosion of demographic
diversity and a flight of many businesses to lower-cost
locations as far away as New Mexico. The demographic
“The state capital of Vermont, Montpelier, did not want an intemational
fast food operator to occupy a historic building in the town center.
Their only legal basis for rejecting the application was parking and
traffic impacts, not maintenance of the downtown character.
trend is toward retired trades persons who bought their
home in 1960 for $15,000 and attomeys under pressure
to bill abone crushing 2400 hours/ year.
On the other hand, cities and counties must try
to entice employers to locate a plant or an outlet in their
territory. Quality employers use a checklist to rank
proposed locations. A tiributes that usually appear on the
checklist of a high technology national or intemational
employer are:
- availability of a skilled and loyal labor force
- proximity of a university or college for employee
training and continuing education
- desirable area to live; this includes recreation, public
transportation, local environmental controls, prosperity
- property taxes, corporate and individual income taxes,
sales and other taxes
- housing; preferably nearby and affordable
- schools; their evaluation includes scores, college
entrance statistics,
teacher salaries, sources of funds
- health services
- transportation infrastructure, including walkways and
bicycle paths
- utilities and communications
- police and fire protection
If the city wants to attract quality employers, it
will have to satisfy this or similar wish lists. This
requires good long-range planning, community
commitment and money. Discretionary funds are often
scarce with the result that the city must beg the state or
federal governments for grants. This reduces the amount
of control it has in shaping its economic development
and its demography.
The cost of land for both residential and
business uses has a major impact on a city's demography
and the employers that it may try to attract. Y et, it would
seem that the city is not in a strong position to effect land
costs since the market is supposed to do so in a market
economy. That, however, is not completely true. If there
is a will, there is a way. With community support, the
city can permit the construction of multi-story, quality
condominium and apartment complexes in or near high-
priced residential areas to achieve demographic diversity
and contain housing costs. Similarly, it can significantly
lower the costs of industrial real estate by allowing
compact multi-story structures and by waiving the
requirement for large, complimentary employee parking
lots. These cost-control actions, which are very
consistent with the Ahwahnee Principles, become
especially important when an urban growth boundary has
been adopted, because it limits the amount of
developable land and tends to inflate the land prices
within the UGB.
The subject of controllability as defined in
control theory is not well understood in the urban and
13
regional context. However, the subject is of great
psychological and political importance, as evidenced by
the Federalist Papers of 1789. Related to controllability
is resilience, that is, how well does a city or region cope
with disasters ranging from ice storms to economic
recessions? There is considerable evidence that
communities and regions that have installed defensive
systems and are ready and able to act when a disaster hits
are less vulnerable than those which rely on assistance
from the outside. In other words, the mayor should have
the authority and the budget to rid his city of drugs.
The Ahwahnee Principles and these authors
favor a regional network of relatively self-contained
traditional compact communities or nodes. This vision is
difficult to realize unless there is forceful regional
coordination. In the absence of such coordination, the
nodal cities will compete with one another (and with the
County) to attract employers and outlets. Usually the city
that is able to offer the largest subsidies to the interested
employer or outlet wins. Regional coordination with
clout can help direct the interested employer or outlet to
the node where they are most needed according to the
self-containment objective. Some economists will argue
that this additional layer of control interferes with market
forces. The answer is that the subsidies offered by the
most affluent cities constitute a distortion of the market
which the regional govemment should regulate and
attenuate through regional revenue sharing to avoid the
downward spiral epitomized by Bridgeport and to
prevent excessive intemodal travel demand.
9. Supplementary Principles.
The scope of the Ahwahnee Principles is primarily land-
use and transportation within a city and a region. These
principles do not focus on the other two bipoles, namely
economic development/taxation and demography/land
value described in [18]. The purpose of the
supplementary principles to be enunciated below is to
address these two subsystems in the context of a regional
habitat. Thus:
Economic Development: The city creates the
conditions sought by stable and profitable businesses,
that is, an educated work force, no crime or addictions,
local markets and partnership relations with the city
which is prepared to be a launch customer for innovative
goods and services. The economic development should
be diverse, not dependent on natural resource depletion,
and matched to the city's population. Corporations that
overcut timber and import much of their work force are
unwelcome, especially when they dominate the local
economy. The city should take a pro-active role in
encouraging and permitting investments that benefit the
community at large. It should review critically the
proposals of special interests and only permit those that
provide significant net benefits to the community.
Taxation: The city has the right to impose
specific taxes and fees for the purpose of financing and
facilitating its transition toward the community approved
horizon state. Examples of such taxes are gate fees,
substantial parking fees and employment taxes on
commuters.
Transparency, Use of Funds and Verity of
Costs: The city must divulge the origin and use of funds
in an annual report which also states the true costs of the
improvements that it finances and the services that it
provides. Subsidies and extemalized costs are permitted,
provided that they are disclosed and justified.
Demography: The city should help create a
diverse demography which also ought to be matched to
the city's economy. Sections of town that are reserved
for the ultra-successful, the beginners and those in
between should make way for developments in which the
full spectrum of the population lives in the same general
vicinity. The resulting diverse habitat creates a sense of
community and effectively counters crime and
hopelessness. The city, in effect, becomes Oldenbury's
Third Place [19].
Efficiency: The city, as well as the region,
should avoid inefficient technologies, investments and
management processes and attitudes, even when some
other goverment entity pays. Examples of such
inefficiency are regional economic developments that
invite traffic and require state and federal investments in
new highways, military bases and welfare due to lack of
skills or adequate job opportunities, and child care.
Domestic financial Management, Savings and
Local Investments: The city should take a pro-active role
in educating the citizens to live efficiently, save, organize
their retirement income, and invest prudently in local
business, and replace their credit cards by debit cards
Subsidiarity:” The city should seek control of
its own destiny within a framework of constraints
imposed by superior govemment. These constraints
should not be overly binding. The city should also seek
fair pro rata reimbursement under the form of
discretionary grants in retum for taxes its citizens and
corporations are paying to superior levels of govemment.
Solidarity, Import Replacement and Residency
Requirements: The community should take a pro-active
role in educating the citizens to give preferential
treatment to locally produced goods and services, and in
hiring employees who are residents of the city.
The Environment: The city should maintain
expertise in predicting the numerous, complex and long-
term impacts of planning and use permit decisions that
affect the environment. Job creation should not be an
* Subsidiatity is defined as contro! at the lowest level of a hierarchy.
14
excuse to abuse the environment, especially when the
damage is expensive or impossible to repair.
Regional Coordination: The cities that
constitute the nodes of a natural regional network should
coordinate expansion plans in order to reduce the need
for excessive transportation of people and freight along
the branches of the network. Tax revenue sharing and
other forms of collaboration should be developed to
counter the blackmail that existing and potential future
businesses frequently employ to obtain favors from
competing individual cities (and counties.)
As with the Ahwahnee Principles, the opinion of a
well-informed and briefed citizenry should be sought
whenever significant decisions in the socio-economic
arena need to be made. The principles together with
simulations should be used by staff to inform and brief
the citizenry.
10. Concluding Comments.
Robert Louis Stevenson posed a very important
problem when he wrote:
"The world is so full
of anumber of things,
I'm sure we should all be
as happy as kings."
There are a number of reasons, some due to our
own ineptitude, why most of us do not live like kings.
The point of this paper is that automobility and the
associated roadway and parking infrastructures are so
incredibly expensive in direct, indirect, and intangible
costs that there is not enough left to allow us to live like
kings. In addition to the expense, there is pollution and
hassle.
The thrust of this paper is not to attack the
automobile, which is a marvelous invention, but to
redirect its use toward the good life, that is exploration
and recreation, on a network of tree-lined country roads.
Is this redirection possible? We believe so. The center
piece of our redirection strategy is the Negakilometer
which requires the development of a multigenerational
strategy aimed at regional networks with compact urban
nodes and abandonment of the sprawl and accretion that
evolved after World War II.
Such regional networks not only allow cost
effective public transit and freight transportation (which
sprawl does not), but also has a range of benefits that are
not directly related to transportation, namely a sense of
community and moderation of the income and race
related social polarization and fragmentation that plagues
our inner cities and rural ghettos.
These social and quality-of-life related
advantages are real. Those of us who were bom prior to
1950 remember the compact neighborhoods where
people knew each other and where truants were reported
to their parents by an informal network of friends and
neighbors.
We estimated that the tangible costs of our auto
based transportation system is comparable to the size of
our federal budget, about 1.7 trillion. Much of this
money could be re-deployed. Our private and public
expenditures are not prioritized well. By reducing our
private and public contributions to automobility, we
could finance the efficient nodal network and have
money left over for more recreation and education.
There are many that oppose the regional
network with compact urban nodes and diverse
demographics and economies. Obvious opponents are
those who manufacture, sell, service, finance and insure
automobility and build highways and freeways.
Additional opposition comes from those who believe in
the economy of scale of large plants, tall office towers
and big boxes. However, we are beginning to see
attention-catching examples, (eg. electrical power
generation), in which the economy of scale argument was
proven to be very wrong, once the increased resilience of
dispersed generation and the opportunity for
cogeneration was factored in.
Then there are those who argue that high
technology solutions are just around the comer, for
instance electric vehicles and the Automated Highway
System, (AHS). Our counter is that these solutions will
probably help somewhat but will not be affordable and
effective remedies for the US and, perhaps more
importantly, the LDC's whose appetite for motorization
has become a cause for global concem. Tele
commuting, of course, is with us and provides a useful
partial solution for human interactivity, somewhat like
the telephone.
An important suggestion of this paper is the
dynamic programming way of thinking, notably the
definition of a bi-generational horizon state, x(H), the
development of laws of control which entice the various
factions of the community to move the state forward in
the right direction and, of course, the principle of
optimality which says that trying to save too much
money and pain in the short term will cost more money
and pain in the long-term. The resulting optimum split
between short and long term investment needs by the
community should help settle the ideological dispute
between the proponents of spending and those in favor of
reducing local taxes.
The key to a successful transition from the
current state to the horizon state is to define a horizon
state which meets the following conditions:
* Lesser Developed Countries
15
- It is feasible, that is, intemally consistent and
reachable.
- It has the backing of the majority of the
community.
- It needs to be scrutinized and, if necessary,
updated periodically.
There exists a vast body of knowledge which
describes the kind of horizon state that makes sense to a
city and, by extension, to a region. The Ahwahnee
Principles augmented by the Supplementary Principles,
point the community in the right direction. The charrette,
visual preference and simulation techniques, including
games such as the existing Sim City 2000 and the hoped
for Sim City 2001 are needed to understand all the
implications of the chosen x (H) and create community
consensus and steadfast support to realize it The
charrettes and visual preference techniques are well
established. Simulations and interactive games,
especially in the context of identifying the winning
x(H) and enlisting community interest, understanding
and support remain to be developed.
Can the transition from the inefficient and
costly habitats and lifestyles to a state based on nodal
compact and relatively independent cities be realized
within our political structures? We believe that it can. It
is quite possible that the initiative will not originate in an
OECD country because of inertia and vested interests.
Jaime Lemer, former mayor of Curitiba, inventor of a
brilliant bus-based transportation system in this 1.4
million people city [20], and now Govemor of the State
of Parana, Brazil, comes to mind. It is certainly
encouraging to note that more and more of our elected
representatives want to phase out most subsidies and
charge each user for the true prorated cost for the
amenities and services that he demands. Trading user
fees for subsidies and reducing taxes in the process
would seem to be a politically acceptable strategy toward
realizing efficient habitats and life styles.
References
1. Forrester, Jay Wright, Urban Dynamics, MT.
Press, 1969
2. Jordan, David P., Transforming Paris - The Life and
Labor of Baron Haussmann, The Free Press, 1995
3. Reisner, Marc, Cadillac Desert - The American
West and Its Disappearing Water, Penguin Books,
1993
4. Tengstrom, Emin, The Use of the Automobile - Its
Implications for Man, Society, and the
Environment, Swedish Transport Research Board,
Stockholm, 1992.
5. Calthorpe Associates, Transportation and Land Use
Study for Sonoma-Marin, 739 Allston Way
Berkeley, California 94710, 1997
6. Bank of America, Califomia Resources Agency,
Greenbelt Alliance and Low Income Housing Fund,
Bank of America Report, 1994
7. Settle, Peter, Parsons Brinkerhof projection of
2/11/95, [personal communication.]
8. Linden, Eugene, 7he Exploding Cities of the
Developing World, Joumal of Foreign Affairs,
Jan/Feb,1996
9. Lovins, Amory, Energy Strategy: The Road Not
Taken?, Journal of Foreign A ffairs, October, 1976
10. Hubbard, Harold M., The Real Cost of Energy,
Scientific American, A pril 1991, p. 36
11. Who Pays for Urban Sprawi?, US News and World
Report, April 27, 1998, p. 22
12. Duany, Andres and Elizabeth Plater-Zybeck, Towns
and Town-Making Principles, Rizzoli, 1991
13. 1000 Friends of Oregon, Making the Connections-
Integrating Land Use and Transportation Planning
for Livable Communities, 534 SW Third, Suite 300.
Portland, Oregon 97204
14. Urban Ecology, Inc., Blueprint for a Sustainable
Bay Area, November 1996
15. Jacobs, Jane, Cities and the Wealth of Nations,
Vintage Press, 1985
16. Isaksen, Leif and John Peschon, Globalization
Versus Independent Cities: What is Best?, ISTAS
’98, Indiana University, South Bend, Indiana
17. Nelessen and Associates, Community Image
Preferences: — Chesterfield Township, Princeton,
New Jersey, 1990
18. Peschon, John, Leif Isaksen and Brian Tyler, The
Growth, Accretion and Decay of Cities,
Intemational Symposium on Technology and
Society, Princeton University, June 21-22, 1996
19. Oldenburg, Ray, The Great Good Place, Paragon
House, 1989
20. Rabinovitch, Jonas and Joseph Leitman, Urban
Planning in Curitiba, Scientific American, March
1996
Appendix A
The state x and motion in the state space x (k)
Those readers who are repelled by algebraic
symbols such as x should reflect on this paragraph only.
The state x is a list of all those pertinent attributes of a
city (or any other large-scale system) that cannot be
changed by the stroke of a pen, but require time and
effort. The area covered by parks and the incidence of
16
violence are examples taken from that list. Ordinances
and taxation schemes, on the other hand, are decision
variables, and they can be changed or created by the
stroke of a pen. Getting the urban state to make a soft
landing at or near the specified horizon condition is a
control problem similar to that of delivering a happy
NYSE together with near-full employment and no
inflation, or of adjusting the horizontal and vertical
positions and velocities, and the attitude angle, of a jet
liner so that it lands without a jolt.
The dynamics of physical systems are
described by differential equations, such as Newton's
relation between a force F which accelerates a mass m at
the rate a
F=ma (1)
Let the scalars X, be the distance of mass m
from a given starting point Xj (0) and X, be in velocity.
Then (1) can be rewritten as two first order differential
equations
XK=X,
rl (2)
The solution of (2) provides the answers
and x,(t)and x(t)where tis continuous time
X,(k) and x(k) where kis disorete time.
Poincaré pointed out that the trajectory formed
by apoint of coordinates X, and X. in the X,,X. plane
as a function of t (ork) might be more instructive than
the traditional plots of x, and x. versus t (ork).
The idea of a trajectory associated with the
variables X; (t) can be extended to systems of greater
complexity, that is n >2. The resulting column of
scalars X,,...,Xj,-..X, is a vector x called the state.
The motion or trajectory of x as a function of t (or k)
is described by a set of n differential (or difference)
equations similar to (2), but more numerous and
involving more variables.
The force F in (2) can be the result of a
deliberate decision U, a perturbation V, or both. Thus
the trajectory in the X,, X» plane depends on the forces
u and/or V. In the higher dimensional case of x, the
decisions and perturbations are also vectors u and v.
In physical systems, the components of x are
usually related to a form of energy. In (2), the velocity of
the mass m is related to the kinetic energy
{x.)"
2
This observation suggests that a state variable
cannot change quickly, unlike the decision or
perturbation variables.
Differential (and difference) equations can also
be used to describe the dynamics of economic and socio-
economic systems. For example, the state X of a bank
account is related to deposits U,, withdrawals U, and
interest i per unit time by
x(k +1) = x(k) (1+i) +u,(k)-u,(k) (3)
Note that the bank account state also has
inertia: it takes time and effort to increase the asset
represented by the account.
A very important example of social dynamics is
demography. Let X; be the number of people of age i
inacommunity and k be measured in years.
A very important example of social dynamics is
demography. Let x; (k) be the number of people of
age i in acommunity in the current or a future year k.
If we limit the age to 100 years, we can define a vector
x(k) of 100 components, one for each age i .
It is straightforward to relate next year’s
demographic state x(k +1)to this years state
x (k) provided that we know (or can estimate) the
following deomographic forces:
B(k) =number of births in year Kk, a sealar
1(k) = net immigration into the city (or the
region) in yeark. 1(k) isavector of 100 components
p(k) =deaths in year k,, another vector
In order for a city to be described adequately
for the purpose of a future specification x(H) and its
planned motion (or trajectory) from the current state to
the horizon state x(H), a number of state variables
pertaining to land-use, transportation, city assets,
economy and demography need to be defined, together
with a decision variables u(k) pertaining to new
housing, infrastructure and economic development,
17
taxation, education, cultural activities, etc. That was
accomplished to a large extent in Sim City 2000.
Appendix B (included by permission)
AHWAHNEE PRINCIPLES
for Resource-Efficient Communities
Existing pattems of urban and suburban development
seriously impair our quality of life. These symptoms are:
more congestion and air pollution resulting from our
increased dependence on automobiles, the loss of
precious open space, the need for costly improvements to
roads and public services, the inequitable distribution of
economic resources and the loss of a sense of
community. By drawing upon the best from the past and
the present, we can, first, infill existing communities and,
second, plan new communities that will more
successfully serve the needs of those who live and work
within them. Such planning should adhere to these
fundamental principles:
Community Principles
1. All planning should be in the form of complete and
integrated communities containing housing, shops,
work places, schools, parks and civic facilities
essential to the daily life of the residents.
2. Community size should be designed so that housing,
jobs, daily needs and other activities are within easy
walking distance of each other.
3. As many activities as possible should be located
within easy walking distance of transit stops.
4. A community should contain a diversity of housing
types to enable citizens from a wide range of
economic levels and age groups to live within its
boundaries.
5. Businesses within the community should provide a
range of job types for the community’ s residents.
6. The location and character of the community should
be consistent with a larger transit network.
7. The community should have a center focus that
combines commercial, civic, cultural and
recreational uses.
8. The community should contain an ample supply of
specialized open space in the form of squares,
greens and parks whose frequent use is encouraged
through placement and design.
9. Public spaces should be designed to encourage the
attention and presence of people at all hours of the
day and night.
10. Both community or cluster of communities should
have a well defined edge, such as agricultural
greenbelts or wildlife corridors, permanently
protected from development.
11. Streets, pedestrian paths and bike paths should
contribute to a system of fully-connected and
interesting routes to all destinations. Their design
should encourage pedestrian and bicycle use by
being small and spatially defined by buildings, trees
and lighting; and by discouraging high speed traffic.
12. Wherever possible, the natural terrain, drainage, and
vegetation of the community should be preserved
with superior examples contained within parks or
geenbelts.
13. The community design should help conserve
resources and minimize waste.
14. Communities should provide for the efficient use of
water through the use of natural drainage, drought
tolerant landscaping and recycling.
15. The street orientation, the placement of buildings
and the use of shading should contribute to the
energy efficiency of the community.
Regional Principles
1. The regional land-use planning structure should be
integrated within a larger transportation network
built around transit rather than freeways.
2. Regions should be bounded by and provide a
continuous system of greenbelt/wildlife corridors to
be determined by natural conditions.
3. Regional institutions and services (govemment,
stadiums, museums, etc.) should be located in the
urban core.
4. Materials and methods of construction should be
specific to the region, exhibiting continuity of
history and culture and compatibility with the
climate to encourage the development of local
character and community identity.
18
Implementation Strategy
1.
The general plan should be updated to incorporate
the above principles.
Rather than allowing piecemeal development, local
govemments should take charge of the planning
process. General plans should designate where new
growth, infill or redevelopment will be allowed to
occur.
Prior to any development, a specific plan should be
prepared based on these planning principles. With
the adoption of specific plans, complying projects
could proceed with minimal delay.
4. Plans should be developed through an open process
and participants in the process should be provided
visual models of all planning proposals.
Authors: Editors:
Peter Calthorpe Judy Corbett
Michael Corbett Peter Katz
Andres Duany Steve Weissman
Elizabeth Moule
Elizabeth Plater-Zyberk
Stefanos Polyzoides
For more information contact the Center for Livable
Communities
1414 K Street, Suite 250, Sacramento, CA 95814,
916/448-1198
© Copyright 1991, Local Government Commission,
Sacramento, CA
19
