To Main Proceedings Document
A Practitioner's Experience of Using
Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) to Craft Futures
Guy A. Duczynski MBA, MEd
Headquarters Special Operations
C/- School of Management Information Systems
Faculty of Business and Public Management
Edith Cowan University
Pearson Street, CHURCHLANDS 6018
Australia
Telephone: (08) 9273 8523
Facsimile: (08) 9311 2717
E-mail: gaduczyn@ student.cowan.edu.au
Abstract
This paper reinforces the utility of Field Anomaly Relaxation as a key tool for the
construction of futures in which to position areas of interest for analysis. Its use here is
focussed on the environment occupied by Special Operations as an instrument of national
security policy. Seven drivers are examined which provide the boundaries for five future
world situations arrayed on a Faustian tree. These future worlds are further developed
into rich narratives that describe 20 individual scenarios. The product of the futures work
is linked back into the organisation in question to provoke creative thought and
unconfined dialogue for change.
The past is of no importance. The present is of no importance. It is with
the future that we have to deal. For the past is what man should not have
been. The present is what man ought not to be. The future is what artists
are.
Oscar Wilde
Introduction
Scenario planning, and numerous other, albeit somewhat lesser known, methods have
become increasingly popularised through the proliferation of management books dealing
with futures thinking, coupled with a widening acknowledgement that systems thinking
and practice may provide answers to many of the unstructured or wicked problems (a
term often assigned to a problem situation when it has defied conventional attempts to
resolve it and appears to manifest a behaviour that indicates a deeper complexity - its
origins lie within the interactions - as systems thinkers would agree) that plague
organisations. For scenario planning to be effective, a useful set of scenarios must be
constructed against which the organisation or area of interest can be tested.
This useful set of scenarios must encompass a sufficiently broad range of conditional
ingredients that offer enough possibilities for variation and divergence. Without this
possibility for divergence a single path into the future is formed which, despite the
boldest imagination, cannot accommodate more than a single scenario or a narrow
collection of qualitatively similar (and therefore, not useful) scenarios.
This paper presents an account of the use of FAR to build scenarios for a military
organisation faced with an increasing rate of change in its operational environment. Its
aim was to provide a relatively unbounded forum for creative thoughts and ideas
regarding organisational renewal such that novel concepts and imperatives for change
could be expressed within a broadened perspective of the future.
A Generalist Understanding of Scenarios
Many emergency response organisations: law enforcement, military, fire fighters,
paramedics and disaster relief, to name just a few, use scenarios on almost a daily basis to
sharpen their capacity to deal with the unexpected. Their common characteristic of being
necessarily focussed on the short-term does not reduce the valuable use they make of
scenarios and scenario thinking. Through a comprehensive set of ‘what if statements and
structured events they are able to rapidly cycle themselves through a bewildering array of
problem situations.
The result of this focussed training and the associated flexibility of mind it demands is a
highly agile team that can rapidly adapt structures, techniques and procedures to
overcome situations in which indecision, hesitancy and lengthy planning are not options.
Pilots undergo multiple repetitions of emergency situations in simulators to create this
necessary rapidity of response and action in order to reduce problem-solving to an
instinctive sequence of behaviours, in effect allowing the mind to remain clear and
unencumbered to deal with those few unique contextual aspects that are outside the
domain of previous simulations.
The same signals and noise that invoke this stimulus-response mechanism are present in
areas where a slower rate of adaptation (evolution?) can be appropriate. Nevertheless, the
perceived equilibrium can be punctuated by rapidly changing events that accelerate
quicker than policy making can contend with (the escalation in violence following the
East Timor independence elections provides a vivid recent example). As stated by
Schwartz (1991, p. 3) "Not having tried to foresee surprising events, they [planners] are
at a loss for ways to act when upheaval continues".
These scenarios, and more importantly the use of them for long-term planning, are
certainly not predictors of events, nor are they attempting to forecast the likelihood of
particular situations they simply aid in the provocation of new ideas. Before proceeding,
these terms of forecast and predict require clarification as they are often used
interchangeably in practice and within the futures literature. Borrowing Coyle's (1997, p.
78) explanations to distinguish between them he states that "... prediction [gives] a sense
of telling beforehand, whereas forecast has a sense of general assessment of a likely
course of events. Thus forecasting means to think systematically about the unknowable
future in such a way as to generate understanding to support effective intervention in, or
protection against, events yet to occur". 'Projection' is another term that has become
synonymous with scenarios, but its use should remain restricted to those methods that
employ mathematical or statistical data to extrapolate trend lines into the future where
some degree of reliability and validity offer the necessary (technical) confidence.
The explanation of ‘forecast’ is more useful for my purposes here and is certainly an
ample descriptor for those personnel involved in those emergency, short-term situations
mentioned earlier. What then for organisations seeking to adapt to changing events that
may span many years and involve complex inter-relationships that conspire in ways that
are not immediately evident?
As an organisational practitioner in need of a systematic and disciplined approach to
developing a useful set of futures FAR has proven to be highly valuable.
Rhyne's Four Step Method
Russell Rhyne, the original architect of the Field Anomaly Relaxation technique,
advocates adherence to a four-step process to projecting futures (Rhyne, 1974, 1981,
1995 & 1998):
Step 1: Form an initial view of the alternative futures that could unfold within the
area of interest.
Step 2: Construct a language using Sectors that will become the dimensions of
describing the area of interest; and Factors, which become the alternative
states within each Sector and array these on a matrix to form Whole Field
(full sector range) descriptors of all possible configurations.
Step 3: Eliminate those factor pairs that are illogical or cannot co-exist, forming a
reduced set of whole field configurations.
Step 4: Position the surviving whole field configurations on a ‘tree’ whose
branches represent possible future states and transitions from one
configuration to the next.
These steps certainly provide a highly ordered series of events and thinking stages.
Indeed, this structuredness and systematic approach is what secured its use over other
methods for the current work. There is, however, little evidence of the use of FAR
outside of the extensive list of publications by Coyle and a series of co-authors (Coyle,
1984, 1985; Coyle, Crawshay & Sutton 1994; Coyle & Yong 1996; Coyle 1997) and an
article by Wood and Christakas (1984).
Several extensions to the method have resulted from the current work, preserving the
purity of the original, but making the product more directionally focussed for the interests
of practitioners within the organisation under review.
A Hybrid Method
Rhyne's call, in Step 1, for an initial visualisation of the future (1974, p. 139) that may
take the form of a short essay (Coyle, 1994, p. 29) relies heavily upon sufficient creative
talent and unbounded thinking to yield a bold enough vision that is sufficiently dislocated
from the present to be useful. The resulting dependence of later stages on this initial, and
maximally creative, stage was found to demand a more pragmatic approach that secured
the participation of any conservative thinkers, recognised the rarity of Toffler-like
visionaries and did not initiate the process with a fanciful account of some future state.
The process adopted involved: generating a large list of drivers, with the criteria being
that they must be beyond the organisation's ability to influence; compressing this list of
drivers into broadened ‘themes’ that embodied the main thought being presented as the
driver; and then entering step 2. This provided for the introduction of several
foundational ideas from the works of Emery and Trist (1965).
Step 4 was followed by the construction of a strategic planning space that was bounded
by the axes of a cube using three primary drivers outwards from a point of origin at one
comer.
These modifications have been necessary due to the need to link this futures work into a
larger study of organisational transformation and renewal. This work employs a database
"Profiler" which utilises extensive '‘effects-based' planning/linking to determine
organisational characteristics. Rhyne (1981, p. 349) has identified the importance of
doing something useful with the results (purposeful action is the neat term that
Checkland has provided us with) of futures thinking that engages a wider body of thought
about change "... the payoff from projections of this kind [FAR] usually dribbles away
unless solid uses for them are visualised from the start and pursued.
An Open Systems Orientation
The slightly modified Step 1 allowed an integration of the ideas of complexity and
systems behaviour as set out by Emery and Trist in their foundational work on
organisational environments, wherein "A main problem with organisational change is that
the environmental contexts in which organisations exist are themselves changing, at an
increasing rate and towards increasing complexity" (Emery and Trist, 1965, p. 21). The
central premise was an acknowledgement that "a comprehensive understanding of
organisational behaviour requires some knowledge of the lawful interdependencies" that
flow unceasingly within, through and across environmental and contextual boundaries.
These were expressed as:
Ly, - the processes at work within the organisation.
Li2 - the transactions and exchanges that penetrate the organisation/environment
boundary flowing outwards.
Ly - those transactions and exchanges that flow inwards.
Ly) - the processes through which parts of the environment become entangled and inter-
related.
These interdependencies can lead to self-organising behaviour wherein "... the
components of a system in effect spontaneously communicate with each other and
abruptly cooperate in coordinated and concerted common behaviour" (Stacey, 1996, p.
330). Or they can behave destructively and deliver many unintended consequences that
often run counter to our goals. The acknowledgement of these interdependencies led to
the formation of key concepts embodied within the search conference (Emery 1977 and
Emery & Purser, 1996). Two of which are described as "the extended social field or
contextual environment - that is, literally everything external to an organisation that
influences its operations. This extended social field contains a web of interdependencies
and social forces that can have a direct influence on any organisation or system, none the
less intense for being regarded as outside the range of its planning processes" and "... the
environment is subject to laws and dynamics of its own" (Emery & Purser, 1996, p. 48).
As stated by Jervis "we cannot develop or find a highly specific agent which will do only
one thing ... We can never merely do one thing" (Jervis, 1998, p. 261). Furthermore,
“the apparent randomness ... can be shown to contain repeating patterns and the theory is
valuable because it enables the search for "order within chaos" (Wing, 1999, p. 18).
The paradox of this has been neatly described by Rosenau (1997, p. 73) as
‘fragmegration' in order "to summarily capture the tensions between the [simultaneous]
fragmenting and integrating forces that sustain world affairs"; furthermore "The parts or
agents of a complex adaptive system, being related to each sufficiently to form recurrent
patters, do in fact self-organise their patterned behaviour into an orderly whole" (ibid, p.
84). The ongoing dilemma for systems practitioners is that the orderly whole may not be
of our design.
So it was armed with a knowledge of systems behaviour that the focus group began the
task of crafting futures.
Identifying the Drivers
The first step was to identify the drivers that would be most influential in shaping events.
As stated earlier these drivers need to be beyond the planner’s ability to influence, the
only acceptable response being adaptation. Over 60 candidate drivers were identified at
this first stage.
These 60 drivers were then collapsed using affinity diagrams to reveal the major forces at
work. The list that was taken to the next stage comprised seven key drivers, which is
consistent with Rhyne's recommendations (1974, p. 139 and 1981, p. 339); there is also a
mathematically imposed limitation wherein the ‘whole field’ possibilities grow
exponentially. Reducing the list to seven in this way does carry a risk that a driver
(Sector) may become more dominant than others, embodying too many dissimilar items.
This can be avoided at a later step in the process. It does, however, offer the advantage
that reducing the numbers of drivers forces participants in the process "... to reach past
several trends to find the unifying themes behind them" (Engelbrecht et al, 1996, Chap 2,
p. 7).
The drivers selected were:
* Political Will
¢ Regional Stability
¢ Economic Situation
¢ Domestic Stability
¢ International Stability
¢ Condition of the Environment
* Technology
Building the Sector/Factor Array
When positioned as headings on a table these became our Sectors, incorporating the
meta-syntactic language, PREDICT, to be used later when referring to different settings.
The columns within each heading were then expanded to form a possible range of Factors
or states in which the Sector could exist. The final row in the table provides a brief
descriptor of the factors' foci.
Table 1 Sector/Factor Array
Political Will Regional Economic Domestic International Conditionof — Technology
Stability Situation Stability Stability the Environ-
ment
P R E D I Cc T
1 Adventurous Cohesion Booming Cohesion Minor Improving Overwhelmin
bold Superior conflicts grate of
change or
development
2 Fencesitting, Generally Parity Generally Regional Manageable/ Continuing
procrastinat- _ stable Competitive stable conflicts fixable rate
ion, cautious
3 Avoidance, Localised Inferior, Localised Major theatre Continuing No further
extreme unrest, declining unrest, wars, degradation development
reluctance discontent discontent multinational
4 Paralysis, Widespread Widespread = Mass Meltdown,
catatonia unrest, public unrest, public destruction catastrophe
uprisings uprisings
5 Anarchy Anarchy
Propensity to Political, State of Socio- Scale of Effects on Development
take risks military, Australian political military and of the of technology
socio - economy stability conflict physical onan
economic relative to elsewhere in environment _ international
stability of that of the the world scale
region region
From this was produced a total of 14 400 possible whole field configurations (4x5x3... ).
Clearly there are many illogical pairs that need to be discarded through a process of
relaxation. As stated earlier, and which can now be seen, the exponential growth to
unmanageable numbers of permutations can be similarly collapsed through a process of
pair-wise comparison which, as well as defining pairs that cannot coexist, removes entire
whole fields that contain a single illogical pair.
Pair-wise C omparison
This process can take a number of forms, all are judgmental and involve reaching some
measure of consensus using a Yes/No decision, numbered scale or some other means to
determine the degree of ‘fit’.
Table 2 Results of Pair-wise Comparison
Ri_R2_R3_R4_R5_Eil_E2_ #83 _ Di _ D2 D3 D4 D5 fl 2 3 $4 Cl C2 C3 C4 Tl T2 T3
Pi y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y¥ Y Y Y¥ Y
P2 | Y Y ¥ Y NY Y Y ¥ Y Y x NY x Y N NY Y NY Y x
P3 Y Y ¥ Y NY y NY NY ¥ NY YN NNN N_Y N_ YIN Y bs
PAa{N NY Y Y NY Y NN Y ¥. y Y x N_ YN Y y y NY NY
Ri ¥ Y Y ¥ Y Y ¥. Y Y ¥. Y Y ¥ Y Y ¥. Y Y ¥.
R2 ¥ Y Y ¥ Y Y N NY NN NY Y Y NY Y N
R3 ¥ Y Y ¥ Y Y ¥ NY ¥ Y N N N_Y NY Y ¥
R4 * Y Y * Y Y * NY * Y NN NY Aa Y Y *
RS ¥ Y Y ¥ Y Y ha Y yh Y Y N NY ha Y Y ha
El be y Y N NY be y N_ YN Y Yy NY y N
E2 ¥ Y Y ¥ NY ¥ N NY Y Y N NY N
E3 Aa Y ¥ Aa Y Y¥ ha Y¥ Y¥ NY Y Aa Y Y¥ ¥
Di Y a NY YIN_Y kg NY kg N
D2 Y ¥. NN NY Y NY Y N
3 Y ig Y Y N NY N NY N
4 Y ¥. Y Y NY Y NY NY
D5 Y x Y Y N NY x Y Y x
I Y Y Y¥ Y Y Y N
12 x Y Y x Y Y N
13 N NY Y Y Y N
4 N NY bd NY ed
cl Y Y N
C2 Y Y N
C3 Y Y ¥
C4 Y Y ¥
The table above allowed a relaxation down to 403 whole fields from 14 400. Not nearly
as many as indicated by Rhyne (1998, p. 7) "the first filter [pairwise comparison] ...
normally filters out about 999 out of 1000; the second [whole field overall coherence]
gets rid of about half those passed by the first". Nevertheless, the reduction was
significant and achieved the aim of this step in the process.
In a further deviation from the method outlined by Rhyne, the surviving whole field
configurations were clustered together, reducing the 403 to 46, a number now
approaching manageability for further analysis. The clustering was based on the
conclusion that if an individual PREDICT configuration changed by one Factor up or
down across no more than three of the seven Sectors then the underlying theme would be
preserved.
It is acknowledged that there was a significant risk of diluting the purity of the exercise
up to this point. It was accepted, however, that in order to achieve the necessary further
reduction this ‘bundling’ of configurations was no more significant than the logic used to
group together the full list of drivers using the affinity diagram in the opening stage. The
PREDICT settings which carry a qualitatively similar setting are set out in the table
below. The further breakdown into a,b, c and d sub categories was forced through the
need to not violate the ‘one up or down' rule mentioned earlier. These sub-groups were
treated as a single entity in the later stages of Faustian tree construction and the
generation of scenarios.
Table 3 Result of Clustering
No PREDICT Configuration | No PREDICT Configuration
la Pio [Ri [Er [Dr fhe [C23 [Tra 24 Piz [Rs E3 Dio fhe Cs [Tia
1b Pio (Rio |E. [Di (h G (T 24b.25a |Pi2 (IR; |E; |Dsa |hs (C3. [Tia
1c Pio [Ro [E. |Di2 [hi Crs [Tha 25 Pa Rs Eos [Das [ho [C3 [Tiz
1d Pio [Riz |E. [D2 [he [Cs [Tia 26 Po R34 [E23 [Da ns |Ca_ [Tia
2a Pia [Ri Diz [he [Coa [To 26a Pa Ras [Er Dio fhe [Cs [Tia
2b Pia (Ri Dis [ha [Cs [Ta 26ab P, IRs |E. |Di2 Iho (Cs IM
3 Pia (Ri D; bs (C3 I 26b27a |P, (IRs |Ei2 [Dio |ho [Cs [Tir
4 Pia [Ri Daa [ia [Cs__|h _| [28 Pia (Ra [Ez [Doe [ha [Cs [he
4a Pia [Re Des [ih (Cs__[h _| [29a Pi (Re [Es [Diana [Caa_ [Tra
5 Pia (Ri Di [ke (zs [Te | [29 [Pe (Ra (Es ‘(Die fhe (Ga [Te
6 Pi (Ri Di fia [Cs 30 Pi (Re [Es [Ds na [Caw [te
7 Pi (Ri Di [a ([Csa 3la Pi (Rs [Es [Des ha [Csa_ [Tre
Ba Pi (Ri Des [ia [Csa Bib |P2_—((Ra_—(Es_—‘|Os (ha —‘(Cs__‘([Tre
8b P2 (Ri Des [ha [Caa 32 Pia (Ra [Es [Des [bp [Csa_ [Tie
9 Pia [Ri Ds [es [Csa 3 P, [Res [E12 Dow ba [Cs __ [te
1013 [Pi__[Ra Doe [a [Coa 34 Pi (Rs [Eas [Die [kh [Ca [Te
11 Pia [Ri Da hha Coa 35a Pi Rs E3 Das [Is-g C34 [Tia
12 Pia (Ri Di [isa [Caa 355 (Pi_—s(Rs_—i(Es_—‘(Os (kh —*(Caa_‘[Tre
4 Pi (Ri Ds (ha [Csa 36 Pr ORs [és (di (a ‘(Cav _[e
15 P, (Ri Ds |b Ci 37 P, IRs |E; (Ds hs (Csxa Ii
16 Pi [Ra Ds la C34 38 Pi Rs E3 Das fla C34 [Tos
Va Pi [Ro Diz [lh Cos 39 Pi Rs E3 Drs [kh C34 [Taz
17b P, ‘(Ro Di {h Coa 40 P; IR, [Ea ID th Cs Tis
18 Pr [Ras Dos [lh C3 41 Pa Ros [Er2 [Di hy C3 Taz
19a Pi [Ra Diz [he [Cs 42 Pa Riz |Er2 [Das fh C3 Ta
19b Pr [Ra Diz [he [Cs 43 Pa Raa [Ei2 [Das fh C3 Ta
20 Pi, (Ro Dos (h CH ag P; IRs [Ea (Di th C3. Tia
21 Pia [Ra Dos [he [Cs 45 Pa R34 [Es Das fhe [Cs [Th
22 Pia [Raa DD (hb CH 46 P, (IRs |E; |Das Ih ic;
23 Pr [Ra Das [he [Cs
Constructing the Faustian Tree
To make the future believable it is necessary to string the transitions into a plausible
history that marks out how a future world could evolve from the present. These
transitions track outwards from a present PREDICT configuration and branch according
to shaping triggers that underlie the factors. For instance, a movement of one level along
the Political Will sector coupled with a multiplier in the Economic Situation can deliver
dramatic changes in the direction of the lines and branches, in effect becoming an
intermediate, but vital, point on the path to other transitions.
To maximise creative thought and discussion Coyle's recommendations (1996, p. 275) on
the methods employed to build the tree were followed. A series of sticky notes covering
all PREDICT configurations (46) were positioned on a wall and arranged and re-arranged
as discussion surrounded the workability of this or that transition and the events
surrounding it. After several discussion and evaluation sessions the positions of the notes
had stabilised and agreement was reached that what was portrayed was a reasonably
complete and plausible account of a future history. This point of stabilisation was also
evident in the fact that discussion points surrounding various PREDICT settings and
transitions had been exhausted.
An abbreviated view of the Faustian tree, with their associated PREDICT settings and
transitions, is set out in the figure below. The bold initial number refers to the cluster
number. No attempt is made at this point to establish times to the diagram
A possible explanation for the transition from cluster 17 to cluster 6, which is
characterised by a worsening environmental condition C2.3 moving to C4 and a lowering
of economic performance E73 moving to E3, may be found in the continuing massive
environmental damage resulting from forest buming in Malaysia and Indonesia with its
effect on economic prosperity.
3 Py oRiEiDslpsCsT2 8 Py oRiE3D2.3li-2C3.4T 1-2
2 Py-oRiEo-2D1-2h1.2C2.sT2
6 P)RiE3Dihy-2CaT 1-2
17 Py.2RoEo-sDi-2hC2sT 12
19 Py. 2RsE1-2D1-2h1-2CsT1-2/ 41 P3Ro3E1.2DiliC3T 1-2
Figure 1 Simplified View of the Faustian Tree
Narratives of the Future
Having constructed the Faustian tree and, thereby, creating a series of pathways through
which the single future trajectory may travel, a set of rich narratives are called for. These
narratives link the present to the future in a manner that adds substance, depth and most
importantly breadth, effectively putting ‘flesh on the bones' of the earlier, more structured
thinking stages.
The named worlds provide "a reference point that helps internalise the world's
implications" (Engelbrecht et al, 1996, Chap 1 p. 3). Set out in the table below are the
eight named worlds in the current study.
Table 4 Named Worlds
1 Global love, peace and harmony Utopia
2 Australia dominated by domestic strife Home Brew
3 Australia and Allies okay, Region finding it tough Argy Bharji
4 Australia and Region in trouble, rest of international arena okay Cast A drift
5 Australia and Region okay, strife elsewhere Trouble Elsewhere
6 Australia leading the rest of the world Great Southern Cross
7 Australia and allies faced with a booming Region King Khan
8 Everybody’s brawling WWIII
An example narrative, entitled Ebola Outbreak, selected off the full list of 20 from the
current study is set out below.
2003, February
Escalation of rebellion in the former B and G results in significant conflict embroiling U,
K, T and Z military forces. Ecological crisis arises as Z forces employ defoliation by
chemical and fire tactics to route rebel H and renegade T in and around R. U, T and K
are swamped with refugees; collectively there is a call for international rescue of
displaced populations. U additionally alerts the international community to the dire
threats to gorilla and other primate populations forced to move also displaced. The sight
of monkeys scavenging in the refugee camps becomes commonplace. Indian, European
and US aid is forthcoming. Expatriate countries, Belgium, France, Germany and the
United States offer a sponsored migration program to relieve an otherwise overwhelming
refugee problem. International wildlife rescue bids relocate endangered gorillas and
other primates to a variety of international zoos and refuges set up specifically to handle
the scale of the problem. Displaced peoples are given an option under a quota for
emigration to these same sponsor nations.
2003, May
Illness besets refugee camps in Africa and those quarantined in several host nations of
USA, France, Germany, Belgium and India. Symptoms are variably a flu-like condition,
progressing to febrile delirium or alternately dysentery with violent abdominal cramps
progressing to unconsciousness. Morbidity and mortality rise to alarming proportions
within eight days.
2003, September
Simultaneously, a world-wide ‘Zookeepers Syndrome’ is reported through toxicology web
sites of similar symptomology. World Health Organisation (WHO) subsequently identifies
the pathogen as Ebola Virus. Global quarantine measures are immediately effected;
however, secondary cases outside refugee concentrations are reported in the next week.
Panic arises in areas around reported Ebola spot fires, in Florida. A military
mobilisation is necessitated to contain fleeing populations. In Europe, similar
containment measures are also enforced. In India panicking mobs overcome police lines
meant to confine them in villages and areas of outbreak. In a plethora of nations the so
called ‘Zookeeper Syndrome’ results in such a scattered pattern of outbreaks that police
with military assistance cannot move fast enough to contain those in contact.
2003, November
Throughout the western world a pin cushion pattern of outbreaks is generated as
secondary Ebola cases propagate to tertiary contact patients. In most countries
outbreaks are contained but in the near tropics of Florida, Southern India and in central
Africa itself the outbreaks threaten anarchy as police and other security agents, hospital
staff and medical workers also begin to be affected.
2004, January
Fragmentation of national administrations can only just be managed by police and
military resources. In this month, however, some patients begin to recover, particularly
in the temperate areas of Europe and northern United States of America.
Readers should be aware at this point that any number of fanciful stories could be utilised
to portray disturbing series of events. The actual value is not in the geographic or
situational detail of what is being described, but the ability to develop effective responses
and national policies for coping.
A Strategic Planning Space for Locating the Principal Drivers
As stated earlier a further deviation from the FAR process was made at this point by
positioning three principal drivers as the axes on a cube to form a strategic planning
space. The drivers selected were International, Regional and Domestic Stability. Using
this planning space it became possible to suspend the eight worlds within a cube that
allowed descriptions of degraded, neutral or improved conditions within each, or
combinations of, these
three drivers.
The low end is where
levels of instability are
extreme. The high end, or A
tips of the axes allow an
expression of high levels
of stability. Using this
space it should also be
acknowledged that it
contains an _ infinite
number of worlds packed
tightly within it that we
have yet to explore in any
detail.
Internation:
Regional
Figure 2 Strategic >
Planning Space Domestic
Conclusion
FAR has proven to be a useful method for crafting futures. It has offered a systematic and
disciplined approach to the formulation and manipulation of data and ideas. As can be
seen from this case, however, there is a considerable amount of additional work that must
be incorporated into the overall study to derive value.
Many interesting lines of enquiry and possibilities for further research have opened up
through the completion of this work, including the possibility of automating many of
FARs processes.
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