The Dynamics of the Field of System Dynamics
Deborah L. Andersen
Rockefeller College
SUNY Albany
Albany, NY 12222, USA
dla@cnsvax.albany.edu
Roberta L. Spencer
Milne 300
Rockefeller College
SUNY Albany
Albany, NY 12222, USA
System.Dynamics@albany.edu
by
Michael J. Radzicki
Department of Social Science & Policy
Studies
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Worcester, MA 01609, USA
mjradz@wpi.edu
W. Scott Trees
Department of Economics
Siena College
Route 9
Loudonville, NY 12211, USA
trees@siena.edu
Shoemakers are always the worst shod!
Future of the Field Project
Although the field of system dynamics has had many noteworthy successes during the preceding
forty-one years,21 some system dynamicists/#! would argue that it is not as “well-known, widely used,
extensively taught, respected and influential as it ‘should be’ based on the breadth and power of its
principles and the need of industry and society for dynamic analysis’ of the type that system
dynamics can offer. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of an on-going project,
recently initiated by the authors, to systematically investigate the possible futures for, and reasons
for the below-potential growth of, the field of system dynamics.
As can be seen in Figure 1, the “Future of the Field” project consists of four primary, interactive,
activities:
1. Organize Existing Data. This activity includes archiving the Field's historical documents, making
data available on the System Dynamics Society's web site, and assembling reference mode data to
assist in the creation of system dynamics models for new initiatives and policy analysis.
2. System Dynamics Modeling. This activity involves the creation of a series of system dynamics
models, from new and existing data and knowledge of the Field, that address questions related to
the future of the Field. These models will be available via the Society's web site.
3. New Policies and Initiatives. This activity involves the implementation of new policies and
initiatives devised via system dynamics modeling and the collection and analysis of data from the
Field.
A. Collect New Data. This activity involves the collection of new data for the purpose of
validating/altering the relationships put forth in the system dynamics models of the Field. It will
also enable the responses of the Field to new initiatives and policies to be measured and will
facilitate the creation of an on-going process of program evaluation (see Ganter et al. 1995).
Future of the Field Modeling
As shown in Figure 2, the first model created for the project examines the interactions between
the structure of the supply side of the Field, the demand side of the Field, the System Dynamics
Society, and the Society's annual conference, and the dynamic behavior of the Field.
Figure 3 shows four time series plots from two simulations of the Future of the Field model. The
first simulation run (run 1 in all of the plots) mimics the actual behavior of the Field from 1956 to
1997 and serves as the model’s base case. In this run, the number of veteran system dynamicists rises
to approximately 550 by 1997, the Field exhibits an annual growth rate of approximately 15% (except
during its initial years and the mid-1970s through the early-1980s), the average quality of system
dynamics projects remains very high throughout the 1960s and 1970s, but begins to decline during
the 1980s and 1990s, and the number of published system dynamics studies reaches a level of
approximately 5000.
The second simulation run (run 2 in all of the plots) shows what would have happened during the
last forty-one years of the Field’s existence if the normal fraction of veteran system dynamicists who
teach system dynamics to rookies were 14% (instead of 12% as in the base run). Clearly, the
additional fraction of veterans who are able to train new modelers causes a much larger growth in
the field. Of note, however, is that the average quality of system dynamics projects still declines due
to the flood of rookie modelers during the 1990s.
Conclusions
If the Field of system dynamics has been growing below its potential since its inception, the tools
of system dynamics should be used to determine how the situation can be corrected. It is the authors’
hope that the research underlying this paper will be the first step in an on-going research project
aimed at continuously examining the future of the field of system dynamics.
Bibliography
Fey, Willard. 1981. “The Dynamics of System Dynamics.” Proceedings of the 1981 International
Conference on Cybernetics and Society. New York: Institute of Electrical and Electronic
Engineers.
Ganter, Susan L., James K. Doyle, and Michael J. Radzicki. 1995. “Assessing System Dynamics
Curricula: Past, Present, and Future. "pp. 484-493. In: Toshiro Shimada and Khalid Saeed, eds.
Proceedings of the 1995 International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Gakushuin
University. Tokyo, Japan. July 30-August 4.
Greenberger, Martin, Matthew A. Crenson and Brian L. Crissey. 1976. Models in the Policy Process:
Public Decision Making in the Computer Era. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Distributed by
Basic Books.
Maloney, Stephen. 1993. “Notes and Insights on Essential Tension.” System Dynamics Review 9(3):
301-305.
Richardson, George P. 1996. “Problems for the Future of System Dynamics.” System Dynamics
Review 12(2): 141-157.
Scholl, Greg J. 1995. “Benchmarking the System Dynamics Community: Research Results.” System
Dynamics Review 11(2): 139-155.
Scholl, Greg J. 1992. “Benchmarking the System Dynamics Community.” System Dynamics Review
8(3): 263-266.
Scholl, Greg J. 1991. The Dynamics of System Dynamics: Past and Future. Unpublished
Undergraduate Thesis. Harvard College. Harvard University Archives. Cambridge, MA 02138.
Sterman, John D. 1992. “Opening Speech: 1992 International System Dynamics Conference.” System
Dynamics Group. Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
=
Organize Collect New
Existing Data Future of the
woes Field” System New Policies
Dynamics & Initiatives
Models
Figure 1: Overview of the Future of the Field Project
Supply Side of Field
KAZ
* Colleges & Universities
“Teachers
* Consulting Firms
* Systems Thinkers
Demand Side
of Field
* Private Sector
* Public Sect
System Dynamics
Society
* Society Membership
* System Dynamics R
System Dynamics
Conference
* Conference Participants
* Conference Proceedings
Figure 2: Overview of the Future of the Field Model
aq—VeteranSDers
2 VeteranSDers
=4--GroathOfField
2~ GrowthOtField
=4-AveQual ro}
<2 AveQualProj
1,980 1,970 1,980 1,590
Year
=4—PubComplPro,
~2-PubComplPro,
1.980 1,350
Year
Figure 3: Two Simulation Runs from the Future of the Field Model
1 Old French proverb. Fey (1981, p. 3).
2) see Greenberger et al. (1976) and Sterman (1992) for some examples.
BI) For example Fey (1981), Scholl (1991, 1992, 1995), and Maloney (1993).
14) Fey (1981, p. 1).
