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An SD Approach for Assessing an Eventual
Peace Process in Colombia
Ariza Urango, Ricardo and Isaac Dyner
Universidad de los Andes
Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Medellin
ABSTRACT
The Colombian conflict has been lasting for over 45 years and no expert on
the topic foresees peace within the near future; however, very little research
has been conducted intending to evaluate the positive impact that peace may
have in society if it eventually occurs.
A recent scenario exercise, Destino Colombia (DC), provides four qualitative
scenarios for Colombia, but little can be inferred from them in terms of a
quantitative assessment of the improvement or deterioration of the situation.
However both a parallel study, under an econometric methodology, and the
one reported here, taking an SD approach to modelling, have supply
qualitative indications on some of the outcomes of the DC scenarios.
In this paper we present results of two of the DC scenarios, which indicate
likely credible benefits, in case that they occur, in terms of life savings and
reductions in number of clashes in the conflict as well as in The authors
believe that GDP improvement, budget reallocation for education, health and
justice.
The results found in this research may provide further grounds for speeding
the peace process, as it shows figures of the consequences, in case that the
conflict continues, or the likely benefits, in case that the conflict stops.
Compare to the econometric approach, the dynamics exhibited in this
research may create a more believable story for the scenarios exercise.
Introduction
"El futuro no se hereda, pero tampoco es una condena. E! futuro se suena y
se construye. Es la voluntad comun de los pueblos la que orienta el camino
de las naciones. En la alborada del tercer milenio es posible crear una vision
del pais fundada en ciertos consensos basicos y por lo tanto, construir en la
diversidad, basados en la confianza reciproca." (Destino Colombia, 1998)
1 System Dynamics Modelling
A system Dynamics model has been built for analysing alternative scenarios
for the war conflict in Colombia (Ariza and Dyner, 1999). The Influence
diagram in Figure 1 shows how effective a peace negotiation process may be,
although other factor work against it, as can be appreciated in Figure 2.
+
Negotiation
on yn \ |
Conflict
+
Social conomic
E
Welfare «J Performance
GD +
Cost of Conflict
Figure 1. Factor favouring peace talks
“ Negotiation
c Progress
Benefits to Conflict
war actors
Figure 2. Factor against peace talks
2 Scenarios and Simulation results
Two extreme scenarios have been built: An optimistic one, in which war
actors are more incline to peace talks and the opposite one, a pessimistic
scenario, where authors adopt a more short-term view to the conflict.
Under the first scenario, although in the short term the conflict escalates
slightly, in the long term war actions, international help and costs associated
with the conflict improve considerable, as can be appreciated in Figures 3, 4
and 5.
Zz
a / :
a an a
_
he
Time
Figure 4, International aid under an optimistic scenario
Figure 5. Costs of war under an optimistic scenario
Under the pessimistic scenario one can observed a continuous deterioration
of indicators. Figure 6 provides an example of the evolution of the different
indicator analysed for this exercise.
Time
Figure 6. Costs of war under a pessimistic scenario
An SD model allow us to establish the consequences of either situation in
terms of: costs of war, quality of life indicators, % of GDP and men at war as
ca be appreciated in Table 1.
Scenario | Cost of war | Quality of life| %GDP Men at war
Optimistic | 7% of 1999 Up 200% 1% 50.000
Pessimistic | Up 100% Down 250% 25% 4.000
Table 1. War indicators under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios
3. Conclusion
SD has helped assessing both the advantages of peace talks and the
disadvantages of continuing war in terms of human lives, development
indicators as well as in terms of quality of life indicators.
References
Destino Colombia, 1998. Proceso de planeacién por escenarios, Bogota.
Ariza R. and |. Dyner, 1999. Creacidn con dinamica de sistemas de
escenarios que simulan posibles comportamientos del conflicto armado en
Colombia. Revista Armada, 76, pp. 51-62. (In Spanish)
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