DYNAMIC MODELLING OF USER SATISFACTION: THE
CASE OF THE BANGKOK MASS TRANSIT SYSTEM (BTS)
Worapong Tangkitsiri', Stephen 0. Ogunlana’, Adekunle S. Oyegoke’ and Michael G.
Oladokun*
School of the Built Environment, Heriot-Watt University, EH14 4AS, UK
Abstract
Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme is a key approach in the Public-Private Partnership
transportation infrastructure development concept. The private sector obtains concession to
develop public infrastructure projects on behalf of the government to build and operate
projects and transfer back to the govemments at a pre-specified date. The Bangkok Mass
Transit System (BTS) SkyTrain is being operated by the BTS Company Limited under an
agreement with the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration. Due to the commercial nature,
user satisfaction is a major cause for concer. In order to assess the levels of user satisfaction,
it is essential to study the user benefits and gauge their levels of satisfaction. The focus of
this paper is on the performance of the project during the operation stage and the implications
for management. It is proposed to use System Dynamics modelling and simulation to explore
the problem of user satisfaction. This research considers ways in which the satisfaction
levels of users may be enhanced. Data were collected through questionnaire surveys and
interviews to derive causal loop diagram to be translated into stock and flow diagrams for the
simulation. The model will be tested rigorously before being deployed for policy
experimentation on user satisfaction.
Keywords
BOT, Mass Transit, Model, User satisfaction, System Dynamics
| wt89@ hw.ac.uk
> S.0.Ogunlana@ hw.ac.uk
3 A Oyegoke@ hw.ac.uk
4 mgo5@hw.ac.uk
Introduction
The private sector is now playing an increasingly crucial role in the financing and provision
of services that have been traditionally the domain of the public sector. The reasons for this
are multifarious. One of the key reasons is that governments are unable to cope with the ever-
increasing demands on their budgets. Most infrastructure expenditure in developing
countries has been funded directly from fiscal budgets but several factors such as
macroeconomic instability and growing investment requirements have shown that public
financing is volatile and, in many countries, rarely meets crucial infrastructure expenditure
requirements in a timely and adequate manner (Ferreira and Khatami, 1996).
According to the nineteenth annual survey conducted by Public Works Financing (2010),
there have been over 1867 infrastructure concessions with estimated capital costs of over
$US 712 billion proposed, awarded, or completed under a variety of forms of Public-Private
Partnership (PPP) in over 100 countries around the world since 1985.
Furthermore, infrastructure development is one of the prerequisites for continued and
sustainable growth of any country in general. Economic progress of a developing country in
particular largely depends on the availability of adequate infrastructure facilities including
transportation. In order to accelerate the rate of expansion and to fulfil the increasing of
various types of customer demand, the approach of Build Operate Transfer (BOT) has been
introduced as a form of concession in some of the new projects in developing countries
(Ofori, 2007) especially in Thailand (Tangkitsiri and Ogunlana, 2004).
The BOT is a concept whereby governments invite private sectors involved in particular
infrastructure projects to partner with them in order to take advantage from them in the areas
of design, construction, finance and the operation of the facility. Eventually, after a
concession period, the project will be transferred to the host government (Levy, 1996; and
World Bank, 2013).
The focus of this paper is on the performance of the project during the operation stage and the
implications for risk management. It is proposed to use System Dynamics (SD) modelling
and simulation to determine user satisfaction. Furthermore, this research considers ways in
which the satisfaction levels of users may be enhanced. Hence, the SD model addresses the
satisfaction of users which is derived from the usage data. The model addresses the drivers of
user satisfaction. Data from the BTS case study were collected through questionnaire surveys
and interviews to formulate a dynamic hypothesis in the form of causal loop diagrams. The
diagram may also be applied to derive stock and flow diagrams for the simulation. The model
will be tested rigorously before being deployed for policy experimentation on user
satisfaction.
Literature Review
BOT
A Public-Private Partnership (PPP) infrastructure development can be defined as: “the
permission private sectors acquire from the host government to provide infrastructure
services under specific agreement and conditions of market mechanism” (Walker and Smith,
1995). Currently (2013), the most perceptible type of Public-Private Partnership (PPP)
mechanism in transportation infrastructure development is the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT)
method (Walker and Smith, 1995; Dias and Ioannou, 1996; Malini and Raghavendra, 1996;
Ogunlana, 1997; Mohamed-A sem et al., 2001; Zhang and Kumaraswamy, 2001; Zhang et al.,
2002; Ghosh and Jintanapakanont, 2004; Zhang, 2005; Abednego and Ogunlana, 2006; ADB,
2008; and World Bank, 2013).
There are several Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) projects already completed or are currently
in progress in developing countries (Ofori, 2007) and a considerable number of them have
been carried out in Thailand (Tangkitsiri and Ogunlana, 2004). In order to measure levels of
stakeholders’ satisfaction, it is necessary to study the real benefits from projects such as the
Don Muang Tollway operated by the Don Muang Tollway Public Company Limited (DMT)
under a concession granted by the Department of Highways (DOH) and Bangkok Mass
Transit System (BTS) SkyTrain operated by Bangkok Mass Transit System Public Company
Limited (BTSC) under another concession granted by the Bangkok Metropolitan
Administration (BMA) (Ogunlana, 1997; Ghosh and Jintanapakanont, 2004; ADB, 2006;
Ofori, 2007; ADB, 2008; MOT, 2013; and World Bank, 2013).
The crucial elements of project management in construction are project planning and
monitoring. Project monitoring consists of a tracking process, comparing actual outcome to
predicted outcome, analysing impact, and making adjustments as appropriate. This means
that studies in general are carried out on the projects before the construction stage as part of
the impact assessment study especially in terms of risk management (Li et al., 2005). The
focus of this research, however, is on the project during the operation stage and its
relationship to risk management. The outcomes of projects are strongly influenced by the
communities and the risks involved in the system. Thus, project monitoring and tracking
tasks are very important to keep the projects in their planned situations and ultimately to
accomplish their goals (Chege and Rwelamila, 2000).
The Bangkok Mass Transit System (BTS
The BTS SkyTrain project is now operational in Bangkok, the capital of Thailand. The
concession for the BTS was awarded to the Bangkok Mass Transit System Public Company
Limited (BTSC) on the 9" April 1992. The BTSC was permitted to retain all revenue
deriving from the system operation for 30 years. The objectives of the project are to assist in
alleviating the chronic traffic problems within the city and to provide Bangkok citizens with a
fast and efficient means of transportation within the central business district.
According to BTSC (2013), the BTS has changed travelling patterns in Bangkok. Both
traffic problems and inability to arrive at passenger destinations on time have either been
solved or substantially reduced. This means that BTS benefits are economic and social and
meet the needs of customers/users.
Tangkitsiri and Ogunlana (2004) have addressed the problem of satisfaction with the BTS
through a survey of stakeholders of the system. The survey of users (757) was conducted
using questionnaires and interviews to evaluate the real benefits of the BTS. The study
results (Tables 1-3) indicate that BTS users were substantially satisfied with the benefits
derived from the project. Users expressed satisfaction with the convenient transportation
system which, they claimed, had improved the traffic situation. However, they also expressed
the wish to have system improvements.
Table 1: Demographic Profile of Users
Age in Y ears
Male Female <20 20-30 31-40 41-50 >50
Thai 198 429 118 399 1. 64 3. 34 5. 12
(32%) (68%) (19%) (64%) 2. (10%) 4. (5%) 6. (2%)
7. Foreigner 8. 65 10. 65 12.7 14. 68 16. 40 18. 13 20. 2
: 9. (50%) 11. (50%) 13. (5%) 15. (52%) 17. (31%) 19. (10%) 21. (2%)
Adopted from Tangkitsiri and Ogunlana (2004)
Table 2: Satisfaction of Thai Users
Factor Result
dis ed Dissatisfied Average Satisfied aco d Mean sD
SEIVICES (wa , tek) (28K) (ean) (ox) 37806
Safety (02%) = (1.6%) oa) ean) aim 3840.62
Operation. i ) ias%) (ose) (eo) (eo y 367 0.69
fee ney (oa ) 98) el BH) ea an 374 0.70
Adopted from Tangkitsiri and Ogunlana (2004)
Table 3: Satisfaction of Foreign Users
Factor Result
aeons a Dissatisfied Average — Satisfied Ro) a Mean SD
Semvices (00% ) (00%) (10.8%) (754k) 138%) 203; O50
Safety (0.0% ) (0.8%) 2%) (ra 3%) (20.8%) eds: O58
Operation owe ) oes) a) 26) aden 404 0.50
as eae ) (oe) (l ee) (658) es) 442 0.58
Adopted from Tangkitsiri and Ogunlana (2004)
System Dynamics Modelling
In this work, we attempt a System Dynamics (SD) concept that addresses the problem of user
satisfaction with the system with the view of formulating viable policies to improve the
system. The way to implement an integration of a System Dynamics (SD) model and the
project management theory, this is able to be used to solve some of these problems and to
analyse the results as well as the approach of operations and maintenance (O&M)
management by employing clear strategic policies. This is essential in order to ensure
smooth O&M from the basis of the designers’ concept. In particular, the experience from
O&M and SD should positively influence decision making design to ensure stakeholders’
satisfaction (Sterman, 2000).
Customer Satisfaction
The definition of “customer satisfaction” has been widely debated as organisations
increasingly attempt to measure it. Customer satisfaction can be experienced in a variety of
situations connected to both goods and services. It is a highly subjective response which is
greatly affected by customer expectations. Satisfaction also is based on the customer’s
experience of both contacts with the organisation, the “moment of truth” as it is called in
business literature and personal outcomes. Some researchers define a satisfied customer
within the private sector as “one who receives significant added value” to his/her bottom
line—a definition that may apply just as well to public services. Customer satisfaction differs
depending on the situation and the product or service (Oliver, 2010).
Instead of asking whether customers are satisfied, companies may be encouraged to
determine how loyal customers hold them accountable. In the public sector, the definition of
customer satisfaction is often linked to both the personal interaction with the service provider
and the outcomes experienced by service users (Grenci and Watts, 2007).
According to ISO 9000:2005, “Customer Satisfaction” is defined as “the customer’s
perception of the degree to which the customer’s requirement have been fulfilled”.
In this work, customer/user satisfaction is represented by the following equation:
Customer Satisfaction = Services — Expectations
Thus, customer satisfaction begins when the customers’ services expectations are met i.e.
when the level of service provided by the service provider (the BTSC) meets the expectations
of the users. Why is customer satisfaction important in a BOT project? Many citizens in the
developing world are used to bad services. Many may not complain because there are no
avenues to express their grievances or because they have never experienced better services.
However, as the pace of globalisation increases and many citizens of the developing world
travel out of their own countries, they have become more and more desirous to have service
standards similar to what is being enjoyed in the developed world. As such, governments can
no longer continue business as usual when providing services for their citizens. In addition,
one motivating factor in inviting private sector partners to deliver services that have been
delivered by the public sector is the assumption that the private sector can be more efficient
in service delivery than the public sector. If citizens are now being expected to pay for
services they have been delivered free-of-charge in the past, they should have the right to
expect better quality services.
Modelling Satisfaction Using System Dynamics
As discussed earlier, an SD model of the project can be used as an effective tool for risk
monitoring and control. The model can be used to identify early signs of risk appearance.
The implementation of risks and their consequences can be monitored by analysing the
aspects of the project causing concem to both the system management and users.
Effectiveness may also be evaluated through SD models (Ogunlana et al., 2003). In addition,
the dynamic nature of the project can be managed better than in other projects which did not
benefit from modelling. It is essential for the various levels of managers to make the right
decision at the correct time. Thus, some form of supplementary analyses has to be
undertaken to identify the risk conditions of the project. In order to do this, all information
must be integrated by modelling.
Customer satisfaction has been modelled by Che et al. (2010). The conceptualised quality of
service as the major driver of customer satisfaction in telecoms services supply. Our work
addresses customer satisfaction at the O&M stages of a BOT transportation project. We
define customer as the users of the BTS. Our goal is to find ways and means to improve
customer satisfaction through services improvement on BTS. The research context sets this
work apart from that already done by Che et al.
The causal loop diagram which will form the basis for the BOT model has been developed
from an earlier survey of customer satisfaction on the BTS Tangkitsiri and Ogunlana (2004).
The Causal loop diagram is represented in Figure 1 while the causes tree is depicted in the
Figure 2. The major loops are built around the major drivers of satisfaction with the system,
viz: (i) efficiency of BTS operation; (ii) level of safety; (iii) level of services provided; (iv)
physical/psychological health; (v) city traffic problems; (vi) travel cost; and (vii) travel time.
effcieney of entrance |
eat of BTS stations
A > ;
+ passenger
management in each
cain ft = aD, station
Stations
cleanliness
wamingsigns Secunty guarls -s“ p
onboard passenger
ease of purchasing
tickets and boarding
trains
level of safety ‘announcements
level of seivices
provided conveniehce from start
points to BTS stations
~ >)
+
departure/snival
punctuality
+
0
ogentngcosing
ting system,
hhysical/psy chological
sing PevStallpsycholog
Figure 1: Main feedback Loops of the User Satisfaction
BTS routing
BTS stations’ cleanliness
departure/amival punctuality
efficiency of entrance / exit of BTS stations eaciency of BTS operation
onboard passenger announcements
passenger management in each station
BTS safety system reliability
BTS speed
doors opening/closing alerting system
safety of entrance/exit of BTS stations lensl of slety
security guards
waming signs
BTS fare
convenience from start points to BTS stations
free BTS shuttle bus service
ease of purchasing tickets and boarding trains level ob senvices provides!
service time Users Satisfaction with BTS
services and shops in BTS areas
(BTS fare)
(BTS safety system reliability)
(travel cost)
(travel time)
(BTS fare)
(BTS routing) Se traffic problems
(service time)
‘physical/psy chological health
(BTS fare)
Stave cost
(ease of purchasing tickets and boarding trains)
(BTS routing
(BTS speed)
(convenience from start points to BTS stations)
)
)
‘travel time
(departure/arival punctuality)
(ease of purchasing tickets and boarding trains)
(passenger management in each station)
Figure 2 Causes Tree
Further Development
This work is still at an early stage of development. The causal loop diagram will be validated
through discussion with the managers of the BTS system before being translated into stock
and flow diagrams for simulation purposes. Essentially, there is the need to establish that the
causal loop diagrams accords with the mental model of the managers of the system. In the
absence of a reference mode in form of time series data, the authors intend to consult the
managers of the BTS to refine the outputs from the system before being used for policy
experimentation.
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