Parallel Program
A System Dynamics Approach to Regional Impact
of the Construction of a Submerged Floating Tunnel.
Etsuo YAMAMURA and Seiichi KAGAYA
Department of Regional Ecosystems
Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science
Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060 Japan
Abstract
This study aims to examine the regional impacts of the construction of a long submerged
floating tunnel across the bay. This study has been motivated by the apparent scant
data and research works on the likely regional consequences of such a large-scale project
(Alex 1989 ; Thirumurthy 1987). The main concern is with the department of
techniques to predict likely regional impacts. | The main premise is that the construction
of the submerged floating tunnel across the bay will result in changes may initially affect
the immediate surroundings of the projects site but eventually they are likely to have
widespread effect.
Ideally, these changes may be advantageous to some organisms but disadvantages
to others. From this view- point, we propose an System Dynamics Model for the
regional impacts. The actual simulation is examined using the example of the Volcanic
Bay of Hokkaido in northern Japan.
1. Introduction
The regional impact programs originating from the construction of a submerged floating
tunnel project are quite significant and require adequate consideration.
These problems can be best analyzed from System Dynamics Approach point of
view. The seaside region is the habitat of many living organisms which from a
regional community. Each organism interacts with its regional economics and with
other organisms. The interaction with other organisms leads to complex and dependent
relation.
Our model represents four sectors model including such as population sector, living
environmental sector, industrial sector and investment sector (Forrestor 1974a, 1974b).
The population: sector includes the transfer of people from one age groups to the next age
group to the upward time (Yamamura 1991). The living environmental sector includes
the basic services and supplementary services of living environment (Yamamura 1984) .
The industrial sector includes the basic employment, fishery industry and tertiary industry
arising from the construction of a submerge floating tunnel (Yamamura 1985). The
simulations was concentrated to the regional impact arising from the constructions of
submerged floating tunnel.
2. Methodological Framework of the Study
The seaside region of the Volcanic Bay of Hokkaido in northern Japan is the habitat of
ie
System Dynamics '95 — Volume II
many living organizations which form a regional community. Each organism interacts
with its regional ecosystems and with other organisms. The comprehensive approach
involves, interaction among the parameter controlling each component of the system ina
dynamic state. Each component and its related parameters state are identifiable at
every desired stage so as to give leverage for applying the policy options deemed fit to
orient the model in the desired direction. The system is also designed to function
with suitable sectorial modulators so as to avoid greater as oscillation within the model
and also to be realistic with the practical situation (Yamamura 1986,1989) .
The Figure 1 illustrates the complex factors influencing the construction of a long
submerged floating tunnel across the bay and their interaction and also the interaction
among the sectors.
The population component
The population component includes the social factors and parameters. The total
population is classified into four generations namely, CHLDZ (0-14 years), YADZ (15-
24 years), ADZ (25-59 years) and OLDZ (60 years above).
The natural Increase involves BRADZ (birth rates) and the death rates namely,
DRNCD (0-14 years), DRYAD (15-24 years), DRAPD (25-59) and DROD (60 above).
The natural transfer of population age from one age group to another is also
included, namely, GCHDZ(from CHLDZ to YADZ), GYADZ (from YADZ to ADZ) and
GADZ (from ADZ to OLDZ).
The social migration of population includes MCHLDZ(0-14 years), MYADZ(15-24
years), MADZ(25-59 years) and MOLDZ(60 years above). POPDZ, TOTALMPOP,
TOTALMWRK and TOTALWWRK are represented total population, total male
population, total male work population and total female work population respectively.
The investment component
The investment component included INBEXPEND (investment expenditure),
OBLEXPEND (obligated expenditure), INFRAPRM (infrastructure investment
expenditure), TINESPC (total investment expenditure), CGEXPEND (treasure
disbursements), LCLGRANT (distribution of local allocation tax), LCLTAX (local tax)
and LCLBOND (local bond).
The industrial Component
The industrial component includes AMOSALESZ (commercial sale), COMSOC
(construction industry expenditure), JOOPCO (employment opportunity of construction
industry), TOCON (workers of construction industry), YIELDFISH (fishery output),
REGPRMO (development program), JOOPPRM (employment opportunity of
development program), FISHWRK (workers of fishery) and NEWPRD (impact on
fishery based on development program)
The living environmental component
The living environmental component is divided 13 group component such as
health, against pollution, disaster prevention, transportation, consumption, employment,
solidarity, culture, welfare, education, residential facility, recreation, and environmental
conservation.
QA7
Parallel Program
The main component includes, EDUFACZ (level of educational facility), NHBEDZ
(level of hospital facility), AGPNFACZ (level of old aged facility), SEWERSYSZ (level
of sewage facility), TRAFZ (level of road facility), PUBHSZ (level of public housing
facility), AMSAZ (level of commercial sale), JOBZ (level of employment opportunities),
COMFACZ(community facility), CULFACZ (cultural facility), PUMPFACZ (level of
pump facility), RECZ (level of recreational facility) and ENVCONSZ (level of
environmental conservation).
The Figure 2, 3, 4, 5 illustrates the population sector, the living environmental
sector (1), the living environmental sector (2) and investment sector, and the population
sector and industrial sector.
3. Simulation Analysis
The first simulation attempts to confirm the model based on the past population of Sahara
town with most impacted by the long submerged floating tunnel across the bay.
Table 1 represents the fit results between the actual and estimated values.
The second simulation attempts to estimate of the impact population and fishery
output of Sahara town by the construction investment and damage of fishery. We
consider the four cases such as :
Case 1 : The allocation of construction investment of tunnel based on the population rates
of each town and 10% of damage of fishery according to the construction
investment.
Case 2 : The allocation of construction investment of tunnel based on the population rates
of each town and 5% of damage of fishery according to the construction
investment.
Case 3 : The double allocation of construction investment of tunnel of Sahara town based
on the population rates of each town and 10% of damage of fishery according to
the construction investment. .
Case 4 : The double allocation of construction investment of tunnel of Sahara town based
on the population rates of each town and 5% of damage of fishery according to
the construction investment.
Figure 6 represents the population estimation of Sahara town of each case. Case 4
represents the stable value of population estimation and other cases represent the
decreasing value.
Figure 7 represents the damage of fishery of Sahara town of each case. Case 2 and
Case 4 represents small damage and high increase of fishery output. | But, Case 1 and
Case 3 represent big damage and the recovery of fishery output is small.
4. Conclusion
The simulation results of the present study thus establishes the imperative need to identify
the most probable dynamic changes expected during a foreseeable future in order to frame
appropriate regional policies to Sahara town development.
The double allocation of construction investment of tunnel of Sahara town based on
the population rates of each town and 5% of damage of fishery according to the
construction investment (Case 4) represent the most probable stable value. In the
future research, it is necessary to study the ecological system dynamic model in the
Volcanic Bay (Yamamura 1993) .
pee
System Dynamics '95 — Volume II
Linving environmental |—_————»|_ Population =
sector << sector
Industrial —————————>"_ Investment
sector (ory sector
Figure 1. Basic Concept of Regional System Model
Table 1. The Fit Results Between Actual and Estimated Values
Total Popuration
Estimated values Real values
Year
1985 6,100 6,100
1986 6,045 6,192
1987 5,991 6,101
1988 5,937 6,018
1989 5,882 5,951
1990 5,829 5,856
reve)
Parallel Program
ome -_
MOMLOZ DONDE! = me
WOH0Z
uz
Iz
- orc
cone]
Eby TBRAOZ y
2 Dex
4OOPEYA
MYADZ oye0z
agg pV202
AR Nwenz 7
iz
z RAPD
= [DDD:;
JOOPESM 2 wn
TORSO
cowoz
MMOLDZ
ToRCO .
POO:
WoLD2
Figure 2. The Population Sector
System Dynamics '95 — Volume II
EDUFACZ NHBEDZ
Figure 3. The Living Environmental Sector (1)
O51
Parallel Program
corkFacz OMEN?
Os —
JAINNCOM
> RINNE
NCOMF! OBCOMFAC 2 NOULFAG PECUEAS
BUC
INBI
Tes ROVROOM PCLOULFAC ROVRCLL
ToL comerceeoaloc
COM au INACCL
pues weg, | EOS
a
in RIRINGR
INPUH NORE CECREC
URI
recs
INQUBUHS COLES ROVRPUHS
INCP
PUB ENVCONEZ
ALEC
ce) D
RININEY Aenve
ql Vv
ingueny MACE OE ENV
Env REOXEV
|_areny \
investment sector
Figure 4. The Living Environmental Sector (2) and Investment Sector
rs
System Dynamics '95 — Volume II
RYIELD
Figure 5. The Population Scctor and Industrial Sector
053
Parallel Program
6200
6000, | —$___________
5800
8600
a eRe
—o— case 2
400 |} 4
—+— case 3
—o— case 4
5200 | —___""s.,,..
5000
Total population estimation
4800
4600 Simulation year
5 10 15 20
Figure 6. The Population Estimation of Sahara by Four Cases.
41000
40000
39000
38000 —*— easel
—o— case2
——t— case3
37000 —— cases
36000
Fishery output (ten thousands yen)
35000
34000 0S 10 15 20 25 Simulation year
Figure 7. The Damage of Fishery of Sahara Town by Four Cases.
OSA
System Dynamics '95 — Volume II
References
Alex, B.A., Kagaya, S and Yamamura, E. 1989. Dynamic Assessment of Housing
Investment Options ina City ina Developing Country - the Case of Kumasi City,
Ghana, Africa. Proceedings of Hokkaido Branch of Civil Engineer Association.
45:433-438,
Forrester J.W. 1974a. | System Analysis as a Tool for Urban Planning. Reading in
Urban Dynamics. 1:13-28.
Forrester J.W. 1974b. Control of Urban Growth. Readings in Urban Dynamics.
1:257-272.
Thirumurthy, A. M., Yamamura, E. and Kagaya, S. 1987. System Dynamics
Approach for Objective Assessment of Essential Environmental Facilities and Their
Policy Needs-Sapporo Case Study. Environmental Science, Hokkaido University.
10(1):53-70.
Yamamura, E. and Iwasa, M. 1984. Quantitative Model Analysis of the Regional
Population and Economic Changes Arising from the Industrial Development.
Environmental Science, Hokkaido. 7(2):133-142
Yamamura, E. 1985. Optimal and Reference Adaptive Processes for the Control of
Regional Income Disparities. Papers of the Regional Science Association. 56:
201-213
Yamamura, E. 1986. A Study on Model Reference Adaptive Control in Economic
Development (IV) - Discrete Polynomic Non-linear System. Environmental Science,
Hokkaido. 9(2):151-161.
‘Yamamura, E. and Miyata, Y. 1989. A Study on Model Reference Adaptive
Processes of Japan's Regional Development in 1970's. Proceedings of Japan
Society of Civil Engineers. 407(IV-1):117-128
Yamamura, E. and A.M.Thirumurthy. 1991. Urban Systems Model with Reference
to Essential Environmental Facilities of Developing Country. System Dynamics
91: 690-699.
Yamamura, E. 1993. Introduction to Model Reference Adaptive Theory. Institute
of Environmental Creation, International.
ace
