Syllabus for workshop
Instructors: Aldo Zagonel and Mohammad Mojtahedzadeh
E-mail: zagonel@aol.com; mohammad@attunegroup.com
Title
System Dynamics in a nutshell: a hands-on, case-study-based demonstration of the
modeling process, from problem definition to policy analysis
Overview
This workshop will introduce sensitivity simulation, calibration to data, and model testing,
in the context of developing and using a formal theory for the “societal life cycle of cigarette
smoking.” We will go through the process of model development and use, building and
testing a feedback-rich model, to explore its modes of behavior and adequacy in explaining
and addressing a dynamic problem.
Goal and objectives
Our goal for this workshop is to apply a comprehensive set of system dynamics techniques
to a specific case to demonstrate the modeling process as a whole, from problem definition
to policy analysis, with formulation, sensitivity simulations, calibration to data, model
analysis and model testing, used iteratively, as needed, to offer an insightful perspective on
a complex system.
Active participation in this course will help with the following learning objectives:
¢ What are the elements to defining a dynamic problem, including reference modes of
behavior
¢ Formulation and simulation of a feedback-rich model using Vensim® PLE, including
using Synthesim and user-defined graphs
* Approaches to testing and evaluation, for the purpose of a) model refinement and b)
confidence building in insights and recommendations
* To conduct sensitivity simulations, with emphasis on distinguishing different
patterns of behavior versus realizations
* To conduct a model calibration using empirical data (time permitting, computing
and interpreting statistical measures of “goodness of fit”)
¢ How to relate model behavior to the structure of the system and to explain
endogenously the patterns of behavior produced by the model
* To extend model-based learning to policy insights and implications
Case study
Cigarette smoking presented the most significant public health challenge in the United
States in the 20th Century and remains the single most preventable cause of morbidity and
mortality in this country. We developed a theory of the societal life cycle of smoking, using
a parsimonious set of feedback loops to capture historical trends and explore future
scenarios. We present our feedback-rich conceptual model, illustrate the results of a series
of simulations, and discuss policy implications for tobacco control.
Outline
Case study overview
Model development and testing
Sensitivity simulations
Model calibration
Behavior reproduction test
Forecasting & policy analysis
D Ol mo NS
In addition to sensitivity simulations and model calibration, we will cover model testing
and evaluation, with emphasis on tests that were integral to this model development
process. If we have time, we will also demonstrate the statistical behavior reproduction
test.
Software
The instruction will be given mostly using Vensim® PLE (Personal Learning Edition),
except in exercising functionality that is available only in the commercial versions of the
software, such as automated sensitivity analysis or automated model calibration.
Vensim® PLE can be downloaded for free for academic or personal use from Ventana
Systems, Inc. (http://www.vensim.com/venple.html).
Documentation
The case study is written up in the form of a paper distributed with this syllabus. The
instructor will make available the slides and models used during the workshop.
Instructors’ bios
(Will be added here)
