Table of Contents
Using a System Dynamics Model for
Automatic Detection of terrorist activities
based on Data Warehousing and Data Mining Approach
Authors:
Prof. Dr. W. Angelika Kreitel
University of Applied Sciences Wiirzbury- Schweinfurt
Fachbereich Betriebswirtschaft
MiinzstraRe 12
97070 Wirzburg (Germany)
e-Mail: dr.waki .de
phone: +49-931-3511-192
PD Dr. Bernd Viehweger
University of Potsdam
Lehrstuhl Wirtschafts- und V erwaltungsinformatik
August Bebel- Str. 89
14482 Potsdam (Gemany)
e-Mail: bviehweger@ gmx.de, bemdv@1z.uni- potsdam.de
phone: +49-331-977-3322
Development of a system dynamics model to find out people there committed terror attacks as
well as to forecast criminal acts to avoid this acts within the framework of preventive meas-
ures. There are defining key attributes of delinquents like money transfer, e mails, hand phone
calls, purchases, and are describing it with meta data. The problem of data updates and of
data quality will be solve with a high quality of meta data description. The using of system
dynamics model and data mining approach makes possible to detect new associations in or-
der to change of system dynamics model by means of back-loops. That is the basis for new
search scenarios with new success to avoid terrorist activities. The developed system dynam-
ics model is an experiment to combine the data mining approach and the system dynamics
method. The Result is a learning system with abilities to forecast.
Keywords:
Simulation, data warehousing, data mining, underground banking
Introduction and fundamentals
The process of combat of terrorist activities can be classified in three main phases with sophis-
ticated goals, matters, and methods:
1. Prevention of terrorist activities
2. Investigation of terrorist activities
3. Post- processing (epicrisis) of terrorist activities.
It concems the following in the case of prevention: the detection of potential offenders and
potential victims by means of empiric data that may be levied in the past. In the event of
investigation of terrorist activities the offenders and the actions as well as the backgrounds and
goals will analyze. The epicrisis allows the analysis of previous cases to find out behavior pat-
tems of the offenders. This can be used by the early detection of terrorist activities.
Any examples are known from the experiences of terrorist activities over the last years:
preferred neighborhood (not far from the highways and expressways)
preferred kinds of accommodations (anonymous high-rise buildings)
preferred methods of payments for electricity bills, hire charges, etc. (cash)
cash flows etc.
These cognitions are used to catch the preparations of terrorist activities and the preventative
of them.
I prevention investigation oe |
—| —| epicrises
terrorism. terrorism
instruments System Dynamics Model
[ grid tracing ]
[ money laundering reports |
etc.
empirical data
data base _ like
internet accounts, commercial register, money transfer reports
We can assume the risk of acceptance of cognitions without success during the epicrisis due to
the fact that the conditions can change very fast. Therefore we must consider cases from the
last years with a “new eyeglass”, to transfer available cognitions to the new conditions.
At the present time they are in flux, especially the terrorism and the profile of the offenders. It
is to observe the tuming away from the longtime preparation of the offenders with traceable
tracks - this allowed the so called grid tracing in Germany in the sixties and seventies - to
project: oriented just: in- time- activities with hard-to- cognizable tracks or not cognizable tracks.
The offenders do not attach importance to do not find. The faith makes up for the reason of the
terrorist offense.
There are big intersections between the area of the organized crime, f. e. trafficking in human
beings, cormuption, document forging and drug and weapons transactions, and the area of ter-
rorism. The financial transactions are another kind of terrorist activities. There are the strong
suspicion of using the Arab Hawala- clearing system as a form of the underground banking.
“The Hawala system serves as a clearing system for illegal sources of money and is used
above all for money associated with drug and weapons transactions, smuggling, trafficking in
human beings, corruption, customs offenses and the financing of terrorist activities. However,
it should be noted that not only criminals make use of this money transfer system.
There is also a long tradition of using this system for regular business transactions between
Arab and South Asian countries. In addition, foreign workers in Westem countries use this
system to transfer money to their native countries.
The system is based on a relationship of trust between the participants (due to its meaning,
“Hawala" can be translated as "trust") and was created thousands of years ago, long before
there was an intemational banking system. In this system, money flows are routed around the
world through private persons (who are often trustees or intermediaries located in London)
solely by using a code word.
The money is accepted by agents called "Hawaladars" (who are usually small jewelers, sec-
ondhand dealers, or persons who operate snack stands) in retum for a relatively small fee.
Those who hand their money over to the "Hawaladars' are only given a code or a number.
Then the "partner company" in the respective country is informed about the in payment.
This money transfer system is so widespread that in the meantime a large number of Hawala
agents offer their services through the Intemet and other media as well.
Government institutions in Islamic countries also use this transfer method. “!
1 Dolata, Uwe: chef detective, intemal report may 2002, p. 1-2
The knowledge about the new terrorism can be summed up as follows at the present time:
> Terrorism is cheap.
In comparison with organized crime, the attacks of September 11th required only a few hun-
dred thousand dollars, paid out of "petty cash", which has still to be traced.
Unlike organized crime, terrorism is not aimed at netting profits. For terrorism, money is only
ameans to an end. The mere withdrawal of financial means or the deprivation of certain fi-
nancial resources cannot ban the actual danger, i.e. further terrorist attacks.
Terrorism seems to be a field where the preventive component - a basis for the concepts of
money laundering and/or confiscation of proceeds - do no prove to be efficient.
> Tenorism is not an isolated phenomenon.
> A direct correlation with organized crime can always be identified. Persons, premises or
bank connections, i.e. underground banking agencies, give an idea of, or even show intersec-
tions with, radical or terrorist circles.
> Funds are provided on winding paths.
> Sponsors, financiers or institutions make funds available for terrorist activities. Persons
who contribute money can, for example, not only be found in the United Arab Emirates but
also in a German network of supporters which uses the possibility of underground banking or
obviously conceals money transfers.7
> Intersections have to be disclosed.”
It has proved to be an essential demand to collect information by means of new data acquisi-
tion systems. These methods of financing will used in a System Dynamics model (model in
process). The goal is the preventative of terrorist attacks.
References:
Dolata, Uwe: Intemal report, may 2002.
2 vgl. Dolata, Uwe: chef detective, intemal report may 2002, p. 8
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