System
namics
—| PROCEEDINGS OF THE
€D proceedings
sponsored by:
worn bancodisicia.tt
[I ternational
onjerence
Conference Hosts:
University of Palermo
Faculty of Political Sciences
(CUSA-System Dynamics
Group)
Luigi Bocconi University, Milan
(Istituto di Economia Aziendale)
S¥stem Dynamics Italian Chapter
(SYDIC)
Edited by: _PAl I. Davidser
Edoardo Mollona
Vedat G. Diker
Robin S. Langer
Jennifer I. Rowe
July 28 - August 1, 2002
Palermo, ITALY
Table of Contents
Abstracts: Alphabetical by First Author
Navigating the C onference Proceedings [Papers, |Special & Convened Sessions, |
[Workshops |
[Reading Supplementary Files Index of Authors
Welcome from the C onference Organizing C ommittee
Organizing Local Conference Submission
Committee Planning Team Volunteers Reviewers
Acknowledgement of Sponsors Sponsors and Exhibitors
2003 New York City Conference California Management
SD Career Link Announcement Review
Map of Palermo Floor Plan of
and Venue Locations| Conference C enter
Navigating the Conference Proceedings
For portability and ease of use, the 2002 System Dynamics Conference Proceedings are being
distributed in Adobe Acrobat (PDF) version 5.0 format. You can view the files using Adobe
Acrobat Reader version 5.0. available for free from http://www.adobe.com/acrobat/. Please
download the most recent version of Acrobat for optimum viewing.
These instructions tell you how to:
* Use Acrobat’s basic tools to explore the Proceedings
e Navigate the Proceedings using bookmarks and links
© Search for authors, abstracts, and papers, and access supplementary files.
If you are familiar with Acrobat Reader, you will recognize the common navigational features,
including bookmarks, links, and menu icons. If you are unfamiliar with Acrobat, you may
want to print this page for reference. (For information about printing, see the section “Print a
PDF Document” below.)
Using general tools
Page tool
The built-in Page Tool (figure 1) allows easy navigation within multi-page PDF
documents.
Go back one page, 0 forward one page
lq 4 >I
Go to the first page Go to the last page
Figure 1. The built-in Page Tool lets you move
between and across pages.
Browsing
The built-in Browser Arrows (figure 2) allow you to move through Acrobat in much
the same way that an Internet browser allows you to surf the web:
¢ The back arrow returns you to the page you visited last
e The forward arrow reverses the action of the back arrow (and thus only works if
you have used the back arrow)
>
Return to the page Move forward (works
you just visited only if you’ve used
the back button)
Figure 2. The Browsing Arrows give you greater
flexibility to explore the Proceedings.
Printing
You can print a PDF document in two ways:
© Use the Print icon on the Acrobat tool bar. fe]
© Select File > Print
Note: Both of these actions will display the print dialog box with your default printer
set to print. You can then set any specific options necessary to printing.
Links, buttons, and icons
Links and buttons allow you to easily search and access the Proceedings. Links take
you from the Author Index to a particular abstract, and from an abstract to a
particular paper. Any text or image surrounded by a blue rectangle is a link (figure 3).
All links are surrounded by a blue rectangle.
Figure 3. A sample link
Buttons allow you to move quickly between the Author Index, the Abstracts, and
individual papers. The “Author Index” button (figure 4) returns you to the top of the
Index, and the “Go Back” button (figure 5) returns you from a paper to its abstract.
The “Table of Contents” button (figure 6) returns you to the Table of Contents.
Author Index Go Back Table of Contents
Figure 6. The Table of
Contents button
returns you to the
index. table of contents.
Figure 4. ais eke oe Figure 5. The Go Back button
utton takes you to takes you from a
the first page of the paper to its abstract.
Using Bookmarks
Bookmarks, which appear in the left pane of the Acrobat Reader (figure 7), display the
main sections of the Proceedings document. To display Bookmarks, select Window >
Show Bookmarks. Clicking on a bookmark will take you to a main section of the
document.
@ & Bookmark ~
Navigating the Proceedings
{-) Reading Supplemental File
LI Welcome Letter
©] Acknowledgements
P-L] Organizing Committee
pL] Local Planning Team
po] Conference Volunteers
bof] Submission Reviewers
(1 Sponsors
LCA Management Review
(SD Career Link
(2) 2003 Conference Info
&{] Abstracts
(Papers
pL] Special Sessions
SL] Workshops
(2) Author Index
+L] Maps
b~{] Palermo Map
')] Villa Igiea Map
of
Figure 7. The Bookmarks pane
{Signatures YY Comments ‘{ Thumbnails \{ Bookmarks
Finding abstracts
You can locate abstracts in two ways:
1. Locate the author’s name in the Author Index
a. Click the “Author Index” link in the Bookmarks panel
b. Find the author’s name in the alphabetical index
c. Click the page number after the author’s name
Note: authors may be involved in more than one paper or presentation, which
is indicated by multiple page numbers in the index.
2. Use the Acrobat “Find” function
a. Click the Find Icon. ry
b. Enter the appropriate title, author name, phrase, or keyword in the “Find
What” input box.
c. Click the Find button. The first instance of the search text will be
highlighted if found by the search.
d. Repeat step c to find other instances of your search criteria in the current
document.
Finding papers
You can locate papers in two ways:
1. Link from an abstract
e A blue rectangle will surround the title of any abstract with an associated
paper. Click inside the rectangle to access the paper.
© Some abstracts do not have an associated paper.
2. Use the Acrobat “Search” function:
a. Click the Search icon 6a)
b. Enter the appropriate title, author name, phrase, or keyword in the “Find
What” input box.
Note: do not include articles (a, an, the) in the search.
c. Click the Search button. The title of any documents that include your
search criteria will appear in the “Search Results” dialogue box.
d. Repeat step c to find other instances of your search criteria in the current
document.
After accessing a paper from its abstract, click “Go Back” to return to the Abstract or
“Table of Contents” to return to the beginning of the proceedings.
**Note: Some papers have been withdrawn from the 2002 Proceedings, and their
abstracts have been deleted from the CD-ROM. Areas of white space in the “Abstracts”
section indicate a deleted abstract.
Reading Supplementary Files
This year’s Conference CD has a new feature - Supplementary files - for some papers.
> Identifying Supplementary Files:
In the Abstracts Section and at the beginning of some papers, ® indicates there are
supplementary files for that work. There is also a list of papers, alphabetical by first author, with
the associated supplementary file names, at the end of these instructions.
> Finding the Supplementary Files Folder:
1. Using the list on the following pages, identify the supplementary file(s) that you would like to
access
2. Explore the System Dynamics 2002 Proceedings CD-ROM using the utility appropriate for
your computer (Windows Explorer for Windows, Finder for Mac)
Once you have opened the CD-ROM, open the “Extras” folder
In the “Extras” folder, locate the supplementary file that you identified in step 1
Double-click to open or launch the file
You may need to download software to open some files. Below, there is a list of the different
websites where you can download the necessary software.
DANRW
> Viewing/Opening/Reading the Supplementary Files:
While some of these files are regular texts or presentations in widely accessible formats such as
.doc, .ppt, .pdf, etc., others are model files, which must be viewed using the appropriate system
dynamics modeling software. Please find below information on how to access freeware/demo/trial
versions from several system dynamics software manufacturers. Please follow the links to the
software needed to view the files.
Using the following chart, find the three-letter extension of the file name. Then find the software
you need to view the file.
File Name Extension | Software Needed
-itm ithink*
stm STELLA*
-Sip Powersim Studio
sim Powersim
-vmf Vensim
*ithink and STELLA can each be used to open both .itm and .stm files.
STELLA/ithink by High Performance Systems:
http://www.hps-inc.com/STELLAdemo.htm
http://www.hps-inc.com/ithinkDemo.htm
These links will navigate you to a STELLA and ithink Demo Kit, respectively. Each kit includes a
free save-disabled version of the respective software which you may use to run STELLA and ithink
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 — August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Reading Supplementary Files, continued
models. The kits also contain many additional models that you may find interesting, as well as
several Flash-based tutorials that will walk you through how to use the software.
Powersim Studio by Powersim Solutions:
http://www.powersimsolutions.com/sdconference2002
Powersim Studio Express is a 90-day trial version of Powersim Studio 2001. Note that this
installation will automatically replace any previous version of Studio 2000 or 2001 that is
installed on the computer. Studio 2001 can open Studio 2000 files, but Studio 2000 cannot open a
file that has been updated or created in Studio 2001. Powersim Studio will convert and read .sim
files. This trial version will not be able to open models that have more variables than the set limit.
Vensim by Ventana Systems:
http://www.vensim.com/reader.html
The Vensim Model Reader is free software which allows you to publish models constructed with
Vensim and distribute them to other people. Your model and the Vensim model reader can be copied
and passed to as many people as you want, giving people access to your model without their needing
to purchase Vensim.
> Papers and their Associated Supplementary Files, alphabetically by first author:
Supplementary
First Author Name and Paper Title File
Alonso Magdaleno, Ma Isabel, “Administrative Policies and MIR Vacancies: Alons1_S.ppt
Impact on the Spanish Health System”
Alonso Magdaleno, Ma Isabel, “Dynamic Analysis of Some Proposals for the Alons2_S.ppt
Management of the Number of Physicians in Spain”
Alonso Magdaleno, Ma Isabel, “Elaboration of a Model for the Management of the Alons3_S.ppt
Number of Specialized Doctors in the Spanish Health System”
Aly Abdel Aleem, Bahaa, “The War on Terrorism: Conditions for Success and Alyl_S.jpg
Failure”
Arquitt, Steven, “A Scoping and Consensus Building Model for Understanding the Arquil_S.stm
Dynamics of a Blue-Green Algae Bloom”
Barnabe, Federico, “Group Model Building at a Chemical Company: System Barnal_S.zip
Dynamics for Knowledge Elicitation and Scenario Training”
Ciceri, Ivan, “Interreg EU Programme: A New Assessment Approach” Cicerl_S.zip
Cooke, David, “A System Dynamics Analysis of the Westray Mine Disaster” Cookel_S.vmf
Dogan, Gokhan, “Long Term Consequences of Genetically Modified Crops in Dogan1_S.stm
Agriculture”
Dudley, Richard, “An Application of System Dynamics Modeling to the Question Dudle1_S.zip
of a Log Export Ban for Indonesia”
Fratesi, Ugo, “Regional Economies and Innovative Performance as the Source of — Fratel_S.zip
Competitiveness and Agglomeration: A System Dynamics
Representation”
Futami, Jun, “Data Quality Control and Improvement of Indirect Human Futam1_S.zip
Calorimeter by System Dynamics Approach”
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 — August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Reading Supplementary Files, continued
First Author Name and Paper Title
Supplementary
File
Gillespie, David, “Acceptable Risk and Mitigation Options: Dynamic Structure of
Building Safety”
Goncalves, Paulo, “When Do Minor Shortages Inflate to Great Bubbles?”
Grubenmann, Peter, “Economic Effects of Decentralization of Government with
People Empowerment: An International Comparison of Four Asian and
European Rural Localities”
Heffernan, Mark, “Business Transformation Success Dynamics: It's the
Communication”
Hennekam, Hans, “Making Complex Network Analysis in System Dynamics”
Johnson, Scott, “Alternative Modeling Approaches: A Case Study in the Oil and
Gas Industry”
Koca, Deniz, “The Rubber Industry and Extended Producers' Responsibility
Framework: Opportunities and Threats for Swedish Rubber
Manufacturers”
Levine, Ralph, “Modeling Generic Structures and Patterns in Social Psychology”
Levine, Ralph, “Organizational Change at the Team Level: The Dynamics of
High Performing Self-Directed Work Teams from a Learning
Organizational Perspective”
Lounsbury, David, “Understanding the Psychosocial Dynamics of HIV/AIDS
Prevention and Care in the Community: Base Case Model Findings and
Implications”
Madachy, Raymond, “Software Process Concurrence”
Mandal, Abhijit, “Creating Competitive Advantage through Dynamic Resource
Interactions”
Newton, Paul, “Repeated Overshoot and Collapse Behavior: An Example from
the Petroleum Industry”
Ochoa, Catalina, “Simulation of a B2C E-Commerce Model of Durable
Consumption Goods”
Pagel, Erica, “Structural Changes in US Dairy Farming and the Role of
Government Policy”
Pedercini, Matteo, “The Impact of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic on the Population Age
Structure of Zimbabwe”
Petrides, Lazaros, “The Economics of a Biting Minimum Wage”
Pfeiffer, David, “Symphony of Eigenvalues: A Prototype for Sonification in
System Dynamics”
Provenzano, Davide, “An Artificial Stock Market in a System Dynamics
Approach”
Rahmandad, Hazhir, “Learning from Experience with Delayed Feedback”
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 — August 1, 2002,
Gillel_S.itm
Goncal_S.zip
Grubel_S.zip
Heffel_S.itm
Hennel_S.zip
Johns1_S.zip
Kocal_S.zip
Levin2_S.doc
Levin3_S.doc
Louns1_S.sim
Madac1_S.zip
Mandal_S.pdf
Newtol_S.vmf
Ochoal_S.zip
Pagell_S.zip
Pederl_S.zip
Petril_S.txt
Pfeifl_S.zip
Provel_S.zip
Rahmal_S.zip
Palermo, Italy
Reading Supplementary Files, continued
Supplementary
First Author Name and Paper Title File
Rai, Veerendra, “Dynamics of Schedule Pressure in Software Projects” Rai2_S.ppt
Rees, David, “Use of Financial System Dynamics Models in Local Government” Rees1_S.zip
Rockey, Samantha, “Information Systems Implementation”
Salini, Patrice, “SIMTRANS (Freight Transportation Simulation Model)”
Schwarz, Rainer, “An Elementary Dynamic Model of a Small Start-Up Firm”
Strohhecker, Jiirgen, “Simulations for Planning Dresdner Bank's E-day”
Sveiby, Karl-Eric, “Building a Knowledge-Based Strategy: A System Dynamics
Model for Allocating Value-Adding Capacity”
Svensson, Mats, “System Dynamics of Learning Processes: Comparing Apples
with Pears”
Sverdrup, Harald, “System Dynamics Applied to Reconstruct the Dispersal of
Modern Man on Earth and Language Patterns During the Last 120,000
Years”
Tengbe, Bonopha, “System Dynamics Modeling in Resource Management: A
Sustainable Development Approach to Resource Extraction in Sierra
Leone”
Turbow, David, “A Dynamic Simulation Model of Beach Sand Replenishment: A
Case Study of Santa Barbara”
Vail, Edmond, “Causal Architecture: Aligning Enterprise Strategy and
Operational Dynamics with the Enabling Information Technology”
Weaver, Elise, “Threshold Setting and The Cycling of a Decision Threshold”
White, Anthony, “Control Strategies for Inventory Management”
Wilson, Martha, “Operational Improvements in the Supply Chain: Who Benefits?
Who Loses?”
Ziomek, Agnieszka, “The Performance of the Relationship Between Domestic
Product and Unemployment”
Rockel_S.doc
Salin1_S.doc
Schwal_S.sip
Strohl_S.zip
Sveib1_S.zip
Svens1_S.stm
Sverd1_S.pdf
Tengb1_S.pdf
Turbol_S.zip
Vaill_S.html
Weavel_S.vmf
Whitel_S.zip
Wilsol_S.zip
Ziome1_S.pdf
Welcome
Dear Conference Participants:
Welcome to the 20th Intemational Conference of the System Dynamics Society!
For many, many centuries, Sicily has been the meeting place of civilizations and
empires. Its rich history is characterized by trade, exchange of information, and
invasion upon invasions - not all as friendly as the one by the System Dynamics
Society!
The multifaceted history of Sicily should be a source of inspiration to all participants
taking part in this conference on complex, social systems.
As you can see from the presentation titles listed in our program, the field of system
dynamics is thriving. Y our fellow attendees come from over 30 countries and many
different institutional settings. We hope that you will enjoy the program, make new
acquaintances, and renew ties with old friends.
Over the next three and one-half days you will have a chance to sample system
dynamics work by leading practitioners in a variety of application areas. Well over 300
scheduled presentations are broken down into parallel and convened sessions, poster
sessions, workshops, and plenary and special sessions. We have grouped the
presentations by topic to help you identify sessions of greatest interest.
To increase your enjoyment of the conference, we have scheduled several special
events including a wine tasting welcome reception, a conference banquet with live
music, and tours of the historic Palazzo Steri, where the University of Palermo has its
headquarters. We welcome those who may be accompanying conference participants
but not attending the formal sessions. We hope that you will take part in the special
events, feel at home in the conference center facilities, and enjoy the attractions of
Palermo, a grand and remarkable place to match culture with relaxation.
This year over 220 reviewers screened and commented on submissions - this is more
than double the number from last year. Dozens more volunteers put in many hours to
ensure a successful conference. Without their commitment our conference would be
impossible. A special thanks goes to all who helped.
We hope you find the conference rewarding and the facilities accommodating, and ask
that you bring to our attention anything that may help us to both ensure the success of
this conference and gain experience to better approach future conferences.
Thank you for joining us.
Best wishes from the Conference Organizing Committee
Organizing C ommittee
Conference Chair
Habib Sedehi
System Dynamics
Italian Chapter
Rome, Italy
Program Chair
Pa Davidsen
University of Bergen
Bergen, Norway
Conference Co-Chair
Carmine Bianchi
University of Palermo &
CUSA-System Dynamics Group
Palermo, Italy
Program Co-Chair
Edoardo Mollona
Bocconi University
(Istituto di Economia A ziendale)
Milan, Italy
Conference Manager
Roberta L. Spencer
System Dynamics
Society
Albany, New Y ork USA
Vice Chair, Program
Vedat G. Diker
Rockefeller College,
University at Albany
Albany, New York USA
Local Planning Team
Enzo Bivona
CUSA System Dynamics Group
Gianliborio Marrone
CUSA System Dynamics Group
Giovan Battista Montemaggiore
CUSA System Dynamics Group
C onference Volunteers
Lise Albrechtsen
University of Oxford
Student Assistant
Angelo Alessandri
IAN-CNR National Research
Council, Naval Automation
Institute
Sessions Convener
Dean Christensen
Cyber Learning Corporation
Photographer
Gokhan Dogan
Bogazici University
Student Assistant
Mila Getmansky
Massachusetts Institute of Tech.
Sessions Convener
Nicholas C. Georgantzas
Fordham University at
Lincoln Center
Session Convener
Sameh Gharib
University of Bergen
Student Assistant
Laila Heoyum
University of Bergen
Student Assistant
Scott J ohnson
BP Integrated Business
Sessions Convener
Ozge Karanfil
Bogazici University
Student Assistant
Luis Luna-Reyes
University at Albany
Web Assistant
Ignacio Martinez Moyano
University at Albany
Volunteer Coordinator &
PhD Colloquium Coordinator
Judie Mulholland
Florida State University
Student Assistant
Mert Nuhoglu
Bogazici University
Student Assistant
Peter Otto
University at Albany
PhD Colloquium Coordinator
Ebru Ozdem
Bogazici University
Student Assistant
Davide Provenzano
University of Bergen
Student Assistant
Matteo Pedercini
University of Bergen
Student Assistant
Jack Pugh
Retired
Webmaster
Patricia Quinn
University at Albany
Coursework Coordinator
Morten Ruud
University of Bergen
Sessions Convener
Kim Warren
Global Strategy Dynamics
Sessions Convener
Graham Winch
University of Plymouth
Sessions Convener
Minji Xu
University of Bergen
Student Assistant
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 3
Submission Reviewers
Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid
Naval Postgraduate School
Henk A. Akkermans
Eindhoven University of
Technology
Edward G. Anderson
University of Texas at Austin
Bernhard Angerhofer
Brunel University
Daniel J. W. Arthur
University of Plymouth
Paul Atkins
Australian National University
George A. Backus
Policy Assessment Corporation
Bent Erik Bakken
Norwegian Defence Research Est
Federico Barnabe
University of Bergen
John Barton
Marshall Place Associates
Michael Bean
Forio Business Simulations
William L. Biach
Biach Information Arts
Carmine Bianchi
University of Palermo
Enzo Bivona
CUSA System Dynamics Group
Laura J. Black
University at Albany
J. Robert Bois
University at Albany
Malcolm Brady
Dublin City University
Rod Brown
The Centre for Strategy Dynamics
James R. Burns
Texas Tech University
Deborah Campbell
University of Bergen
Kenneth H. Carpenter
Govemor's Traffic Safety
Commission
John Carroll
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Daniel Castillo
University of Bergen
Robert Y. Cavana
Victoria University of Wellington
Ik Jae Chung
Seoul National Polytechnic Univ
Thomas D. Clark
Louisiana State University
Martin Cloutier
University of Quebec at Montreal
Henry P. Cole
Cole and Associates
Jonathan M. Coyle
HVR Consulting Services Ltd
R. Geoffrey Coyle
Consultant
Brian C. Dangerfield
University of Salford
Pa I. Davidsen
University of Bergen
Hassan Dibadj
University at Albany
Vedat G. Diker
University at Albany
Julia M. DiStefano
New Hampshire College
Anne M. Dowling
Institute for Traffic Safety
James K. Doyle
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Richard G. Dudley
Cornell University
Isaac Dyner
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Robert L. Eberlein
Ventana Systems Inc
Sharon A. Els
PA Consulting Group
Jorn W. Ewaldt
Barkawi & Partner GmbH
David Exelby
Vanguard Brand Management
Jan Faber
Utrecht University
Lars Finskud
Vanguard Brand Management
Andy Ford
Washington State University
David N. Ford
Texas A&M University
Tom L. Forest
Prometheal Systems
Jay Forrest
The Futures Guild
Jay W. Forrester
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Carol Frances
Claremont Graduate University
Lee Frost-Kumpf
University of Illinois at Springfield
Caroline Fu
The Boeing Company
Valerie Gacogne
Peter L. Galbraith
University of Queensland
Michael Shayne Gary
University of New South Wales
4 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Submission Reviewers, continued
Nicholas C. Georgantzas
Fordham University at Lincoln
Center
Mila Getmansky
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Sameh Ibrahim Gharib
University of Bergen
Anthony H. G. Gill
Phrontis Limited
David F. Gillespie
Washington University
Will Glass-Husain
Forio Business Simulations
Paulo Goncalves
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Jose J. Gonzalez
Agder University College
Michael R. Goodman
Innovation A ssociates/A D Little
Co
Alan K. Graham
PA Consulting Group
Don R. Greer
Greer Business Consulting
Andreas Gregoriades
UMIST
Andreas Grofler
Mannheim University
Bas Groothedde
Organization for A pplied Sci Rs
TNO
Carolus Griitters
University of Nijmegen
Burak Gineralp
Univ of Illinois at Urbana-
Champaign
John W. Gunkler
Excelsior Group
Scott C. Guthrie
Wilson High School
Roger I. Hall
University of Manitoba
Tim Haslett
Monash University
Mark Heffernan
International System Dynamics Pty
Ltd
John F. Heinbokel
Vermont Commons School
Gregory Hennessy
Gary B. Hirsch
Creator of Learning Environments
Jack B. Homer
Homer Consulting
Altaf Hossain
Bangladesh Agricultural University
Jody House
Oregon Graduate Institute
Peter S. Hovmand
Michigan State University
Susan Howick
University of Strathclyde
C. Sherry Immediato
Society for Organizational
Learning
Jacob J. Jacobson
Idaho National Eng & Env
Laboratory
Anil B. Jambekar
Michigan Technological University
Omer Jirdeh
University at Albany
Nitin R. J oglekar
Boston University
Paul E. Johnson
University of Minnesota
Scott T. Johnson
BP
Andrew P. Jones
Sustainability Institute
Robert Kallenberg
Boston Consulting Group
Michel Karsky
KBS (Knowledge Based
Simulation)
Bassem Y. Kassem
University of Bergen
Elizabeth K. Keating
Northwestern University
Michael Kennedy
South Bank University
Bowon Kim
University of British Columbia
Doahoon Kim
Sookmyung Woman's University
Dong-Hwan Kim
Chung-Ang University
Craig W. Kirkwood
Arizona State University
Klaus Kocher
Kocher & Gaide
Ulli H. Koenig
RWE AG
Gordon Kubanek
Brookfield High School
Martin Kunc
London Business School
Hironori Kurono
Hiroshima Prefectual University
Ulrich La Roche
La Roche Consulting
David C. Lane
London School of Economics
Sharon Lansing
New Y ork State Div of Crim
Justice
Erik R. Larsen
City University Business School
Tsuey-Ping Lee
I-Shou University
Ralph L. Levine
Michigan State University
Si Liang
University of Bergen
Keith Linard
University of New South Wales
Mathias L intl
SRC Hamburg
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Submission Reviewers, continued
Corey L. Lofdahl
Science Applications Int'l Corp
Luis Lopez
INCAE Graduate School of
Business
Mohamed L outfi
University of Sunderland
Gregory A. Love
Project Performance Corporation
Luis Felipe Luna
University at Albany
Nan S. Lux
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
James M. Lyneis
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Kambiz E. Maani
University of Auckland
Rod H. MacDonald
Initiative for System Dynamics in
the Public Sector
Jose A. D. Machuca
University of Sevilla
John Mackay
Universitat de Barcelona
Frank H. Maier
Intemational University in
Germany
Purnendu Mandal
Marshall University
Abhijit Mandal
London Business School
Gianliborio G. Marrone
CUSA SDG
Ignacio J. Martinez
University at Albany
Ali N. Mashayekhi
Sharif University of Technology
Alan McLucas
University of New South Wales
Dennis Meadows
University of New Hampshire
Jéferson Meneguin Ortega
Peter M. Milling
Mannheim University
Pratap K. J. Mohapatra
Indian Institute of Technology
Jonathan D. Moizer
University of Plymouth
Edoardo Mollona
Universita Bocconi
Taehoon Moon
Chung-Ang University
Michiya Morita
Gakushuin University
Marciano Morozowski
Federal Univ of Santa Catarina
Brad Morrison
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Alfredo O. Moscardini
University of Sunderland
Erling Moxnes
University of Bergen
Magne Myrtveit
Powersim AS
Paul Newton
Cornell University
Geert Nijland
Rogelio Oliva
Harvard Business School
David C. O'Neal
Management Alternatives
Kevin O'Neill
Plattsburgh State University
Ginther Ossimitz
University of Klagenfurt
Peter A. Otto
University at Albany
David W. Packer
Systems Thinking Collaborative
Ozge Pala
Nijmegen University
Jannette Papastaikoudi
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Anastassios Perdicoulis
Univ de Tras-os-Montes e Alto
Douro
Steven O. Peterson
High Performance Systems Inc
Roberto Pinho
Universidade Salvador
Seckin Polat
Istanbul Technical University
Davide Provenzano
University of Palermo
Jack Pugh
Retired
Hassan Qudrat-Ullah
National University of Singapore
Hal Rabbino
Strategic Clarity
Michael J. Radzicki
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Hazhir Rahmandad
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
R. Joel Rahn
Université Laval
Vidya Ramji
University of Bergen
Jorgen Randers
Norwegian School of Management
Sauwakon Ratanawijitrasin
Chulalongkorn University
Juan C. Rego
Nat’] Research Council of
Argentina
Nelson P. Repenning
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Eliot Rich
University at Albany
George P. Richardson
University at Albany
6 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Submission Reviewers, continued
Barry Richmond
High Performance Systems Inc
James L. Ritchie-Dunham
Strategic Clarity
Scott F. Rockart
London Business School
April M. Roggio
University at Albany
Etiénne A.J. A. Rouwette
Nijmegen University
Mark Rowland
PwC Consulting
Morten Ruud
University of Bergen
Alexander V. Ryzhenkov
Russian Academy of Sciences
Khalid Saeed
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Mohamed Mostafa Saleh
Egyptian Cabinet
Ramji Sankarakrishnan
University of Bergen
Erol Sayin
Middle East Technical University
Ali K. Saysel
University of Bergen
Hans J. Scholl
University at Albany
Markus Schwaninger
University of St Gallen
Habib Sedehi
University of Rome
Donald A. Seville
The Sustainability Institute
Han Shu
University of Bergen
J. Michael Spector
Syracuse University
John Sterman
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
Jeroen Struben
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
George F. Stuart
Future Impact Ltd
Lees N. Stuntz
Creative Learning Exchange
Linda Booth Sweeney
Harvard Grad School of Education
Fabian Szulanski
University of Bergen
Victor Thombs
Decision Dynamics
James P. Thompson
Cigna Information Management
Yesim Tozan
Bogazici University
Fisun Ulengin
Istanbul Technical University
Imrana A. Umar
Powersim Solutions Inc
Ann van Ackere
HEC Lausanne
Peter Vanderminden
JP Morgan Chase
Jac A. M. Vennix
University of Nijmegen
John J. Voyer
University of Southern Maine
Robert J. Walker
Delsys Research Group Inc
Qifan Wang
Fudan University
Kim D. Warren
Global Strategy Dynamics
Elise A. Weaver
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Henry Birdseye Weil
Weil & Company Inc
David Wheat
Wheat Resources Inc
Ginny Wiley
Pegasus Communications Inc
Ddembe W. Williams
South Bank University
Martha C. Wilson
University of Minnesota Duluth
Graham W. Winch
University of Plymouth
John Wolfenden
University of New England
Arlen Wolpert
Independent Scholar
Minji Xu
University of Bergen
Kaoru Yamaguchi
Osaka Sangyo University
Aldo A. Zagonel
University at Albany
If you are interested in reviewing submissions for future conferences, please send an email message to the System
Dynamics Society at <system.dynamics@ albany.edu> including your name, contact information and area(s) of expertise.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 7
Acknowledgment of Sponsors
PAS tin
Grou
Insieme per I‘ambiente
Ackoff. Genter
‘Advancement: of Systems Approaches
Sincere Thanks To Our Sponsors
Many organizations and individuals contributed to this
conference. We wholeheartedly thank our sponsors and
encourage you to thank their representatives during the
conference.
Please see the complete list of conference sponsors and
exhibitors on pages 10 and 11.
We would like to thank Comune di Palermo
(Municipality of Palermo) for sponsoring the conference
banquet. The welcome reception is a co-sponsoring effort
by Cantine Settesoli Scarl for the wine, University of
Palermo for the location and tour of Palazzo Steri, and
HVR Consulting Services Ltd. for the food. HVR is also
sponsoring one of the special sessions. Global Strategy
Dynamics Ltd. is sponsoring the pens and note pads,
Amber Blocks Ltd. is funding the Dana Meadows
Student Paper Prize (for best student paper presented),
and IBM is sponsoring a special session. Banco di Sicilia
is sponsoring the printed and CD proceedings,
Assindustria (Association of Entrepreneurs) is providing
meeting space on Thursday, and Mediterranea Digit Sl
(EXEROS DEALER) is providing the conference
photocopier.
ez Business Dynamics
y) www. Strategydynamics.com
SoL
The Society for Organizational Learning]
|
p \ N
Dalazzo Steri
nor 2
Amber Blocks, Ltd.
Acknowledgment of Sponsors, continued
Sicilia i i
SBRdS |" s.0.4 [Alitalia
BANCO di SICILIA | |www.stedliadreamys, corm
a
Our sponsors and exhibitors broaden and enrich our MBN
conference. Additional sponsors include: Ackoff Center sia.
for Advancement of Systems Approaches (ACASA),
Adirondack Oral Maxillary & Facial Surgery, Amia anaes
(Waste Management Company of Palermo), Business Pe) oo
Dynamics, Califomia Management Review, Center for
Technology in Government (CTG) University at Albany/
SUNY, Forio Business Simulations, Georgia-Pacific
Corporation, High Performance Systems Inc., John Wiley
& Sons Ltd., KBS (Knowledge Based Simulation),
Pegasus Communications Inc., Powersim Solutions, SoL O
(Society for Organizational Leaming), and Ventana
Systems Inc. Our appreciation to Sicilia Dreams Travel
Agency, which helped with financial support and travel
arrangements, as well as providing an on-site agent. We
would also like to thank Alitalia for offering special airline
rates to conference travelers.
ASSINDUSTRIA
CALIFORNIA
MANAGEMENT
REVIEW
“Un milione di ringraziamenti” to our gracious hosts -
University of Palermo, CUSA-System Dynamics Group,
Universita Bocconi (Luigi Bocconi University), and
SY DIC SY stem Dynamics Italian Chapter.
XEROX. () KBS
_ Forio
Business Simulations|
WILEY!
hy Independent Thinkers
os Powersim Solutions
Universita di Palermo Comune di Palermo | | a business simulation systems company
Bocconi
Cd
Sponsors and Exhibitors
Ackoff Center for Advancement of Systems
Approaches (ACASA)
Univ. of Pennsylvania, Towne Bldg.
220 South 33rd Street, Room 250
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104-6315 USA
Phone: +1 215 898 2771
Fax: +1 215 898 5020
http://www.acasa.upenn.edu
Adirondack Oral & Maxillofacial Surgery PC
648 Plank Road, Suite 201
Clifton Park, New Y ork 12065 USA
Phone: + 1 518 348 0634
Fax: + 1 518 371 7561
hittp://www.wadhwaoms.com
Alitalia Linee A eree Italiane S.p.A.
Viale Alessandro Marchetti 111
00148 Roma ITALY
Phone: +39 06 65621
http://www alitalia.it
http://www.alitalia. com
Amber Blocks, Ltd.
145 East 48th Street, Suite 25G
New Y ork, New Y ork 10017 USA
Phone: +1 212 593 3110
Fax: +1 212 593 0441
Amia
(Waste Management Co. of Palermo)
Via Pietro Nenni 24 - 28
90146 Palermo ITALY
Phone: + 39 091 649 11 11
Fax: + 39 091 688 24 10
http://www.comune.palermo.it/A mia
ASSINDUSTRIA
(Associazione degli Industriali
della Provincia di Palermo)
Via XX Settembre 53
90141 Palermo ITALY
Phone: +39 091 721 1100
Fax: +39 091 721 1150
http://www.assindustria.pa.it
Banco di Sicilia S.p.A.
Via G. Magliocco 1
90141 Palermo ITALY
Phone: +39 091 608 1111
http://www. bancodisicilia.it
Business Dynamics
Via Ripamonti 1/3
20136 Milano ITALY
Phone: +39 023 651 2604
http://www. businessdynamics.it
10 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
California Management Review
University of California
F501 Haas School of Business #1900
Berkeley, CA 94720-1900 USA
Phone: (510) 642-7159
Fax: (510) 642-1318
http://www. haas. berkeley .edu/cmr
Cantine Settesoli Scarl (Winery)
SS 115
92013 Menfi (AG) ITALY
Phone: +39 0925 77102
Fax: +39 0925 77142
http://www. cantinesettesoli.it
Center for Technology in Government
University at Albany/SUNY
1535 Westem Avenue
Albany, New Y ork 12203 USA
Phone: +1 518 442 3892
Fax: +1 518 442 3886
http://www.ctg.albany.edu
CUSA System Dynamics Group
Piazza A. Gentili 12
90143 Palermo ITALY
Phone: +39.091.6254313
Fax: +39.091.6254532
http://www.unipa.it/~bianchi
Comune di Palermo
Assessorato alla Cultura
Villa Trabia, Via Salinas 3
90141 Palermo ITALY
Phone: +39 091 740 5933
Fax: +39 091 740 5931
http://www.comune.palermo.it
Forio Business Simulations
2320 Jones Street
San Francisco, CA 94133 USA
Phone: +1 415 440 7500
Fax: +1 415 354 3457
http://www.forio.com
Georgia-Pacific Corporation
133 Peachtree Road
Atlanta, Georgia 30303 USA
Phone: +1 404 652 2692
Fax: +1 404 487 3937
http://www.gp.com
Global Strategy Dynamics Limited
PO Box 314
Princes Risborough
Bucks HP27 OJS UK
Phone: +44 1844 275 518
Fax: +44 1844 275 507
http://www.strategydynamics.com
Sponsors and Exhibitors, continued
High Performance Systems, Inc.
46 Centerra Parkway, Suite 200
Lebanon, New Hampshire 03766-1487 USA
Phone: +1 603 643 9636 or 800 332 1202
Fax: +1 603 643 9502
http://www.hps-inc.com
HVR Consulting Services Limited
Selborne House, Mill Lane
Alton, Hampshire GU34 2Q] UK
Phone: +44 1420 879 77
Fax: +44 1420 898 19
http://www. hvrgroup.com
IBM
hittp://www.ibm.com
John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Baffins Lane
Chichester, W Sussex PO19 1UD UK
Phone: +44 1243 779777
Fax: +44 1243 775878
http://www.wileyeurope.com
KBS (Knowledge Based Simulation)
340 rue Saint-Jacques
75005 Paris FRANCE
Phone: +33 01 43 54 47 96
Fax: +33 01 44 07 00 59
http://mapage.noos.fr/kbs
Mediterranea Digit Srl-EXEROS DEALER
Via Leonardo di Vinci 470
Palermo 90100 ITALY
Phone: +39 091 674 20 28
Fax: +39 091 674 11 26
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142 USA
Phone: +1 617 225 2700
Fax: +1 617 225 2631
http://www.pa-consulting.com
Pegasus Communications
One Moody Street
Waltham, Massachusetts 02453 USA
Phone: +1 781 398-9700
Fax: +1 781 894 7175
http://www.pegasuscom.com.
Powersim Solutions
585 Grove Street, Suite 130
Hemdon, Virginia 20170 USA
Phone: +1 703 467 0910
Fax: +1 703 407 0912
http://www.powersimsolutions.com
Sicilia Dreams
Via Liberta 39
90139 Palermo ITALY
Phone: + 39 091 612 45 26
Fax: + 39 091 612 73 43
http://www. siciliadreams.com
SoL, Society for Organizational Learning
955 Massachusetts A venue, Suite 201
Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139 USA
Phone: +1 617 300 9511
Fax: +1 617 354 2093
http://www.solonline.org
SYDIC
SY stem Dynamics Italian Chapter
Palermo ITALY
Habib Sedehi: hsedehi@ freemail.it
Mobile Phone: + 39 338 6418574
Carmine Bianchi: bianchi@ unipa.it
Office phone: +39 091 625 4313
http://www.unipa.it/~bianchi/ita/sydic.htm
Universita Bocconi
Via Sarfatti 25
20136 Milan ITALY
Phone: + 39 02 5836.1
Fax: +39 02 5836.2000
http://www.uni-bocconi.it
Universita di Palermo
Palazzo Steri
Piazza Marino 61
90133 Palermo ITALY
http://www.unipa.it
Ventana Systems, Inc.
60 Jacob Gates Road
Harvard, Massachusetts 01451 USA
Phone: +1 508 651 0432
Fax: +1 508 650 5422
http://www.vensim.com
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 11
Services
www.hvrgroup.com
HVR has been providing System Dynamics
consultancy services to a wide range of clients in
government and industry since 1994. One of many
examples is a study carried out to investigate the
potential risks associated with the spread of vCJD
through the use of surgical instruments. Focusing
on the risks of cross -infection, the study resulted in
changes in policy and prompted a £200m
investment in new instrument cleaning facilities.
Our strong focus on best practice is illustrated by
the development of a methodology for the
verification and validation of System Dynamics
based models. This includes validation with mental
models, ensuring that the problem has been well
understood with a suitable boundary; verification of
the simulation model to be certain that the
influence diagram has been correctly translated
into a quantitative simulation model; and finally,
tests designed to validate the simulation model,
comparing the model’s behaviour with that of the
real world.
Defence Focus
Our focus on the defence sector means
that we bring unparalleled knowledge of
the market place and the issues that face
our clients to all our assignments. As part
of our professional development
programme, our consultants receive
training in these issues from retired senior
civil servants to ensure that we continue
to provide solutions focused on our
clients' precise needs.
Research and Developm
The company has an extensive internal
research and development programme and
maintains links with the leading universities in
its core competencies. This ensures that we
maintain awareness of and access to the latest
thinking in those fields.
How We Work
As one of the UK's leading providers of System
Dynamics consultancy, our reputation for
professionalism is second to none.
We work with our clients to deliver solutions precisely
tailored to their needs. HVR believes very strongly in
the need to transfer its technology to clients, many of
whom now have the capability to undertake entire
projects on their own.
Our process of model verification and validation
ensures that our clients receive recommendations and
conclusions that they can have total confidence in.
HVR’s team of consultants is also proficient in a wide
variety of other methodologies so we know when, and
when not to apply System Dynamics.
Model Integration
In the course of our work, we have developed a
number of tools for integrating System Dynamics
models with other applications.
We also develop sophisticated model harnesses
that can manage scenarios and outputs. This
has the benefit of making models easier to use
and more sustainable in the long term.
Career Opportunities
With three offices in the UK, HVR offers exciting
career opportunities to System Dynamics
professionals. If you would like to know more,
please send your CV to the contact details
below.
J onathan Coyle
Operations Director
Email: jonathan.coyle@ hvr-csl.co.uk
Comune di Palermo
ALERMO, the capital of Sicily, is located on a gulf at the foot of Mt. Pellegrino. Inhabited
even in prehistoric times, it was known as “Panormus” (all port) due to its wide bay that
offers strategically excellent mooring for ships.
The city was founded around 800-700 BC, in the centre of the fertile, verdant Conca d’Oro,
flanked by two rivers, the Papireto and the Kemonia.
The site of great revolutions as it fell under the domination of different cultures, including Punic,
Roman, Byzantine, Saracen, Norman, Angevin, Spanish, Austrian and Bourbon, Palermo’ s
history and art contains abundant traces of the heritage left by foreign peoples.
A Byzantine possession until the 9th century, under Arab-Norman domination (9th-12th
centuries), Palermo was transformed into a splendid city and the regional seat. In 1130 it became
the capital of the realm and the commercial link between Europe and Asia. Following the
Angevin period, it once again flourished under the Aragonese (13th-15th centuries), and then fell
under a long Spanish domination from the 15th to 16th centuries. Austrian from 1720 to 1735,
then Bourbon in the 18th-19th centuries, Palermo was finally liberated by Garibaldi during the
historic Expedition of the Thousand.
As testimony to the passage of these civilisations, whose influence has marked the culture and life
of its approximately 700,000 inhabitants, Palermo offers its artistic and historic legacy to citizens
and tourists from all over the world.
Located in northwest Sicily, Palermo includes all the beauty of the Mediterranean Sea: its
climate, nature, coasts and water. Sicily’s fortunate geographic location at the crossroads of three
continents, Europe, Africa and Asia, and the passage of different people, civilisations and
traditions, make Palermo a cultural and tourist centre of attraction in the heart of the
Mediterranean.
Cantinine Settesolt Scarl
is proud to be a sponsor at
the 20th International
Conference of the
System Dynamics Society
Welcome to Palermo!
Fane ,
ON-LINE TOURISM IN SICILY!
SiciliaDreams, a web site and network exclusively dedicated to thel product Sicily
- Completeness and variety of services and products
- Access, reading and interaction easiness
- Reliability of Booking on line service and electronic commerce
BOOKING ON LINE
SiciliaDreams.com allows Internet users to find the type of accommodation they require by
visiting its pages.
NAUTICAL CHARTER
SiciliaDreams allows you to book your boat. It will be enough to digit the departure place and
the required features to enable us to offer you the best solution.
ORGANIZE YOUR TRIP
With SiciliaDreams you can plan your holiday in a few minutes. It will be enough to digit the
departure place and the required period and then choose among the search results.
E-COMMERCE
SiciliaDreams' typical products shop window represents a chance for Sicilian firms that decide
to resort to external resources in communication management and in their products trading.
INFORMATION
SiciliaDreams is also Information: tradition, culture, tourist itineraries, folk, gastronomy,
restaurants, shops, transportation and handicrafts.
SEO OS, WEB SITES AND BANNERS
SiciliaDreams is also ideation and graphic realization of web sites, links and banners.
Si. net WEB HOSTING
Hosting services consist in the connection's band sale/rent and the space on hard disk, offered
as complement of the ideation and graphic realization activities, together with the web site's
maintenance and modernization.
Kind regards,
by SiciliaDreams' team
Commercial Dept.: a.albanese@siciliadreams.com
Customer Service: simona@siciliadreams.com
Booking: valentina@siciliadreams.com
Editorial Office: giovanni@siciliadreams.com
www.siciliadreams.com created by SICILIA NET S.r.l.
Address: Via Liberta, 39 - 90139 Palermo P.IVA 04862840826
Tel. 091/6124526- 6091254 - Fax: 091/6127343 - Toll free 800 905 910 - E mail: info@siciliadreams.com
S,imulation
in the
S ] | Classroom?
strategydynamics
If you use case studies in teaching add another dimension
and stimulate discussion with a Microworld
Why not take a look at the Beefeater Restaurants Microworld
Visit our stand at the System Dynamics Conference for more information and a
demonstration of this or our other Microworlds
The Beefeater simulation focuses on building a chain of restaurants by expanding the
business whilst maintaining product and service provision. The simulation can be used to
support teaching in general management, strategy, systems thinking, system dynamics and
service operations. It demonstrates that business performance over time depends on the
resources we have, and that they are won and lost through time. Growth of the overall system
depends on the particular contribution made by these resources, which include intangible
factors and investor support.
Features a competitor
option and six pre-set
challenges . Extensive
graphs and reports plus
resource map.
staff per restaurant_service quay
— ~~ 1.06
walingtine 8 mi
peak table usage 100%
teputation
for value
You can create new
challenges, providing eee (o7)
additional diversity and
“case” situations. |
other restaurant. total
costs 1.0 restaurant
Our Microworlds are | pofttase 1435
., E000 p.a.
fully supported with
teaching materials — | TT
visit our stand for warnings
more information corporate support
Oa anton > macceril gaas
\ capital spend ...[2360}
Authors: Kim Warren, Paul Langley, Erik Larsen, Ann van Ackere, Christina Spencer
Global Strategy Dynamics Ltd, +44 1844 275518
PO Box 314, Princes Risborough, www.strategydynamics.com
Bucks. HP27 0JS. UK. sales@strategydynamics.com
Sponsors of Systems Thinking
and System Dynamics in Education
K-12 and Business
Amber Blocks Ltd.
145 East 48th Street, Suite 25 G
New York, NY 10017
Tel (212) 593 3110
Fax (212) 598 0441
Allen L. Boorstein, President
Paper Prize, given annually for the best student paper presented at
I: IS OUR PLEASURE to fund this year’s Dana Meadows Student
the International System Dynamics Conference.
Best wishes to all the students, who are the future of system dynamics.
DF cnpumston. Welcome
Business Strategy
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PA Consulting Group’s Business Dynamics Practice, formerly Pugh-Roberts Associates, is the first and
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ridge, MA-02142 . USA .tel +1.617.225.2700 . www.paconsulting.com
ASSINDUSTRIA
Associazione degli Industriali
della Provincia di Palermo
(Association of Entrepreneurs of the Palermo Province)
Via XX Settembre, 53 - 90141 Palermo
Phone: 091/7211100 - Fax 091/7211190
http://www.assindustria.pa.it/
CUSA - System Dynamics Group (cusA-spDG)
A research group which applies system dynamics to
business growth management.
Research goals, which mainly concern the small business and public services
fields, are pursued through a mutual relationship with firms, (entrepreneurs’
education, seminars, workshops, etc.), an intensive collaboration with other
international leading research institutions, international seminars on system
dynamics applied to business growth management issues, and synergetic
networking with professionals.
Since 1995, CUSA-SDG has been successfully applying system dynamics with particular regard to
dynamic business planning, business start-up and growth management, linking system dynamics with
accounting models into interactive learning environments, e-commerce & globalisation strategies,
scenario planning, performance measurement in public service companies, and dynamic balanced
scorecards.
A FORTHCOMING MASTER PROGRAM
Managing Business Growth through System Dynamics & Accounting Modelling
This Master program aims to educate participants in managing business growth, with particular regards to
SME’s and public utilities, ending with a 200 hour project work done by participants.
The Master will be held at the University of Palermo, Faculty of Political Sciences.
For further information, please contact Professor Carmine Bianchi, email: bianchi@unipa.it
CUSA -— System Dynamics Group address: Piazza A. Gentili, 12 — 90143 Palermo Italy
http://www.unipa.it/~bianchi
THE DOCUMENT COMPANY
XEROX.
ITALIA
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EXEROS DEALER
Via Leonardo di Vinci, 470
Palermo 90100, Italy
Tel: +39 091 674 20 28
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E-mail: medidigit@hotmail.com
Or renatoadamo@inwind. it
Alitalia Linee Aeree Italiane S.p.A.
Viale Alessandro Marchetti 111
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Phone: +39 06 65621
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Business Dynamics
Business Dynamics S.r.1. is a new consulting company based in Milan, Rome and Palermo (Italy).
Business Dynamics originates from the business idea of a group of managers, consultants, and
University professors with a long experience in the System Dynamics field.
Business Dynamics aims to provide managers and SME entrepreneurs a set of innovative tools based
on Systems Thinking and System Dynamics, supporting learning and decision making in, and about
complex systems. The day-to-day use of simulation tools aimed to foster managers’ awareness of how
current decisions impact on future growth characterises Business Dynamics approach. Our goal is to
help decision makers to manage change by learning how their everyday activities impact on business
growth.
Business Dynamics offer covers four main key areas:
¢ — Learning (learning lab, business game, system thinking, system dynamics microworlds);
¢ Strategy (dynamics balanced scorecard, dynamic resource management, dynamics scenario);
¢ — Business planning (dynamics business planning, budgeting & decision support, dynamic cost
management, business start-up);
e — Business process (process analysis based on modelling and simulation, process performance
measurement & control, supply chain redesign, e-process design).
Business Dynamics S.r.1.
http://www.businessdynamics.it - email: info@businessdynamics.it
Forio’
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If you also want your simulation interface to be private, Forio charges a monthly fee for
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Other services provided by Powersim Solutions include expert modeling services, customized
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SoL
The Society for Organizational Learning
Wanted: System Dynamicists interested in
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information are available at www.SoLonline.org.
For membership information contact JJ Harris at
ji@SoLonline.org or apply online . You can also
speak to Sherry Immediato, SoL’s Managing Director,
at the conference.
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Ackoff Center
Advancement of Systems Approaches
Created in October 2000 as a Center of Excellence in "Systems Thinking" in collaboration
with a number of schools at the University of Pennsylvania and a number of corporate
partners.
Ackoff Center for Advancement of Systems Approaches
(ACASA)
University of Pennsylvania
Towne Building
220 South 33" Street, Room 250
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6315
Phone: (215) 898-2771
Fax: (215) 898-5020
Email: acasa@seas.upenn.edu
Website: www.acasa.upenn.edu
The Center for Technology in Government is an
applied research center devoted to improving govern-
ment and public services through policy, management,
and technology innovation. The Center works with
government, corporate, and academic partners to
pursue new ways of applying computing and commu-
nications technologies to the practical problems of
information management and service delivery in the
public sector.
Center for Technology in Government
University at Albany/SUNY
518-442-3892 www.ctg.albany.edu
Wiley is a global publisher of print and electronic products, specialising in scientific,
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and John D. Sterman Toward Global Equilibrium: Collected Papers, edited by Denn L
Indust Dynamics, by Jay W. Forrester Meadows and Donnella H. Meadows
Urban Dynamies, by Jay W. Forrester Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World, by Dennis Meadows etal.
Principles of Systems, by Jay W: Forrester Introduction to Urban Dynamics, by Lowi Alfeld and Alan Graham
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The chapter objectives are: to promote the
development of the System Dynamics (S.D.) and
the interchange of learning and research in
Ww related fields, to establish formal and operative
. . links with other European S.D. communities (i.e.
Dynamics Italian through common EU research projects ), to
promote and develop educational programs
S stem ¢ apter through S.D. methodology, and to create events
and opportunities (seminars, meetings, work
groups) so to exchange knowledge and
experiences in S.D. between both components of
the group and external world
Membership in the Chapter is open to all Italians (also living abroad) and people living or working
in Italy who have interest in System Dynamics and activities of the Chapter.
Contacts:
Habib Sedehi Carmine Bianchi Edoardo Mollona
habib.sedehi@uniroma1 .it bianchi@unipa.it edoardo.mollona@uni-
hsedehi@freemail.it bocconi.it
For more information visit our website: http://www.unipa.it/~bianchi/ita/sydic.htm
e —_ Universita Bocconi strives to offering up-to-date scientific content to C4 3
contribute to the economic and civil the benefit of education, government e8 8
= development of Italy and Europe, by and the private sector. £3 8
educating citizens to enter the managerial The school devotes substantial E "7
class of an increasingly integrated resources to a vast number of research oF
( ) European Union and the world economy. projects, both pure and applied. As a g E
In pursuing this mission Bocconi helps _centre for applied research Bocconi is g
g ) students prepare for covering their future widely recognised for the outstanding 2
. positions with competence, honesty and results achieved in economies and -
g ) responsibilty. Bocconi also serves the management and for its original
Bo
Universita Bocconi
broader community, contributing
scientific and educational knowledge to
the economic progress of public and
private institutions.
Research is an essential component of
the University
of understanding socio-economic
phenomena and devising empirically
ende:
‘our, with the goal
testable models. Bocconi feels that
research drives the advancement of
knowledge: it is the precondition for
approach to empirical analysis and
theoretical investigation.
‘The University issues numerous
publications ~ both essays and journals —
collecting research results from Bocconi’s
Institutes, Research (
School of Management. Egea, Bocconi’s
publishing house, ha
hundreds of titles and regularly translates
books from the most respected university
presses in the world.
tres and Bocconi
a catalogue of
UNIVERSITY OF PALERMO
Palazzo Steri
Piazza Marina, 61, 90133 Palermo — Italy
http://www.unipa.it
CALIFORNIA
MANAGEMENT
REVIEW
The California Management Review is pleased to provide the following articles for the
System Dynamics Society Conference Proceedings. They originally appeared in a
special issue of CMR on System Dynamics in the Summer of 2001.
“System Dynamics Modeling:
Tools for Learning in a Complex World”
John D. Sterman
“Tradeoffs in Responses to Work Pressure in the Service Industry”
Rogelio Oliva
“Past the Tipping Point:
The Persistence of Firefighting in Product Development”
Nelson P. Repenning, Paulo Goncalves, and Laura J. Black
“Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened:
Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement”
Nelson P. Repenning and J ohn D. Sterman
Copies of this special issue as well as reprints of the individual articles are available for
purchase from CMR. Subscriptions are also available.
Our web site is: www.haas.berkeley.edu/cmr/
or contact us at:
California Management Review
University of California
F501 Haas School of Business #1900
Berkeley, CA 94720-1900
phone: (510) 642-7159
fax: (510) 642-1318
e-mail: cmr@ haas.berkeley.edu
We are also pleased to announce that Nelson P. Repenning and John D. Sterman
have been selected as this year’s winners of the Califomia Management Review’ s annual
Accenture A ward for their article, “Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that
Never Happened.”
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 33
THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS CAREER LINK
What is it? The SD Career Link, in its third year of operation, is hosted by the System
Dynamics Society at the University at Albany. It includes on-line information and links to
organizations seeking candidates specifically with system dynamics and systems thinking
backgrounds. We hope that the SD Career Link will provide a valuable exchange of
information about positions and people in the field of system dynamics. Please visit the SD
Career Link bulletin board at the conference.
How to participate? Please refer to the System Dynamics Society website at
www.systemdynamics.org/ or send an email message to the Society office at
<system.dynamics@ albany.edu>. All information about access to and use of the site will
remain confidential. We look forward to your participation.
What's New? Career Link to Be Expanded and More Frequently Updated. The SD
Career Link is about to undergo some changes. First, the Career Link section will be more
regularly updated. Job postings and resumes will be monitored to assure that they remain
current. Jim Lyneis of WPI has volunteered to manage this portion of the website. And
second, the format of the Career Links section will be reorganized to include three
subsections: career information; job postings; and resumes. In the career information section,
employers will be able to provide general descriptive information about how system
dynamics fits into the organization, typical jobs, career paths, and other aspects of
employment with the company. This subsection will allow employers to provide information
about system dynamics opportunities within their firms, to supplement the more general
information contained on their corporate or academic websites. The subsection on job
postings will allow employers to advertise specific and active openings. The listings will be
organized into Academic/Research and Consulting/Industry sections. Finally, a subsection
where those seeking employment may post their resumes will be provided. Information to
populate the revised Career Links section will be solicited from Society sponsors over the
next few months. Anyone with ideas, suggestions, job openings, or resumes please contact
Jim at jmlyneis@ wpi.edu.
34 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Announcing the
Twenty-first International C onference of the System Dynamics Society
New York City July 20-24, 2003
Hosted by: Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, Massachusetts USA
The 21st Intemational Conference of the System Dynamics Society will be held at the Roosevelt
Hotel in New York City. The conference will bring together participants and practitioners interested
in system dynamics and systems thinking. Presentations by practitioners and world leaders in the field
will cover a wide variety of topics, including theory, methods, tools, techniques, pedagogy, case
studies, and applications. Application areas will include business, economics, organizational change,
public policy, engineering, K-12 education, and the social and natural sciences.
New York is the most exciting city in the world and the Roosevelt Hotel is in the heart of midtown
Manhattan. The conference venue is within walking distance of Broadway, Central Park, Grand
Central Station, Fifth Avenue shopping, the Metropolitan Museum of Art, the Empire State Building,
Rockefeller Center, St. Patrick’s Cathedral, the United Nations Building, and other well-know
attractions. We have negotiated a special room rate at the Roosevelt to keep the cost of attending the
conference affordable.
Key Dates:
Conference C ontacts:
January 2, 2003 Opening date for presentation Conference Chair
submissions and workshop Michael J. Radzicki
proposals. Worcester Polytechnic Institute
E-mail: mjradz@ wpi.ed
February 14, 2003 Submission deadline for early Ne ae . eunem
decision. Program Chair: .
Robert L. Eberlein
March 20, 2003 Notification of acceptance for early | Ventana Systems Inc
submissions: E-mail: bob@vensim.com
; . . Program Manager:
March 28, 2003 __ Final submission deadline. Vedat Diker
University at Alb
May 9, 2003 Final notification of acceptance. FE Tee eaten at
May 16, 2003 Deadline for materials to be
included in the electronic
Conference Manager:
Roberta L. Spencer
proceedings. Presenter registration Executive Director
deadline. System Dynamics Society
Milne 300 - Rockefeller College
June 20, 2003 Early conference registration University at Albany “9
deadline. State University of New Y ork
July 2, 2003
July 20, 2003
Hotel room reservation deadline.
Conference Opening
New Y ork City!
Albany, New Y ork 12222 USA
Phone: +1 (518) 442-3865
Fax: +1 (518) 442-3398
E-mail: system.dynamics@ albany.edu
The program will include plenary presentations on topics of interest to all. Parallel sessions will be
organized by theme and will feature the full range of work being done in the field. Poster sessions will
provide an opportunity for participants to engage authors directly on subjects of particular interest. In
addition, there will be workshops, tutorials, panel discussions, special interest group sessions, student
colloquia, vendor displays, and demonstrations. The conference schedule will provide time for relaxed
social and professional interaction.
For updated details, please visit http: //www.systemdynamics.org and click on the 2003 Conference.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 35
Papers
Hazem Y. Abdel Azim
hazem@ imaginet-software.com
Cairo University
24b Anwar El-Mofty St
Nasr City
Cairo Egypt
Khaled Wahba
khaled.wahba@ riti.org
Cairo University
42 El-Higaz Street Heliopolis
Cairo 11223 Egypt
Ziad Adel
wza063@ motorola.com
Khaled Wahba
khaled.wahba@ riti.org
Cairo University
42 El-Higaz Street Heliopolis
Cairo 11223 Egypt
System Dynamics Model for Computer Virus
Prevalence
A standard SIR epidemic model is used as the backbone of this
study, capitalizing on the dual nature of the biological virus, and
computer virus prevalence. The basic SIR model has been
extended to account for the important concept of a “kill signal”
which is generated as an infected machine is virus-cleared. The
“kill signal” spreads through a “word of mouth contact rate”
(WMCR) informing physically connected machines, or machines
that have exchanged software with the infected one about the
virus. As a policy design it is suggested that the kill signal level,
represented by a WMCR, will be dynamically increasing as the
infectious population level increases. This has been proven
theoretically using the simulation model to push down the
epidemic level significantly, thus suggesting a very cost effective
organizational policy to control the computer virus spreading. On
the prevention level policy, controlling infectivity as well as the
contact rate will help decrease the infection rate of PC's.
Impact of Marketing Mix on Exports of
Egyptian Textiles Using a System Dynamics
Approach
This paper is in quest of building a system dynamics model for
the Egyptian textile industry which can be used for testing ideas
to enhance the status of this industry, prepare it for expected
local and international environmental changes, and boost exports.
This paper concluded the high importance of investment in raw
cotton development to increase exports of raw cotton and
finished textile. It showed that early investment to increase fine
raw cotton production is more effective in increasing exports
than investment in textile manufacturing development, which
would be more important after raw cotton production increase. It
showed also that investment in distribution and promotion helps
against competition with results better than quality and research
and development for the Egyptian textile-manufacturing sector.
Also, investment in quality of finished textiles should be
sustainable at high levels to give a real positive effect on exports.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 37
Author Index
Mahmoud Ajami
m.ajami@ tavanir.org
Tavanir Co
PO Box 14155-6467
Berezil Ave Vanak Sq
Tehran Iran
Ali N. Mashayekhi
mashayek@ sharif.edu
Sharif University of Technology
Graduate School of Management
Azadi Avenue P O Box 11365-8639
8639 Tehran Iran
Reza Sotudeh
University of Hertfordshire
Hertfordshire AL10 9AB UK
Omer Akkentli
akkent@ yahoo.com
Beyazgul Cad No 33
Amavutkoy
Besiktas Istanbul Turkey
Mert Nuhoglu
mert.nuhoglu@ isnet.net.tr
Madalyon Sk 2-7
Nisantasi
80220 Istanbul Turkey
Henk A. Akkermans
ha.akkermans@ tm.tue.nl
Eindhoven University of Technology
PO Box 513
5600 MB Eindhoven
The Netherlands
A Comparative Study Among Policy and
Decision Makers Through Their Mental Models
Cognitive map analysis has been widely used to understand the
structure of decision-makers thought. It has been introduced as a
proper tool to map the mental model of a decision-maker.
Facilitators as agents who intervene and facilitate change in the
mental models can use it to map the mental model of managers
and assist them to change it or evaluate its changes over time.
This paper introduces a framework of intervention, which has
been implemented in three companies in order to change
individuals’ mental models toward shared mental models.
Cognitive maps are used to measure the impact of intervention in
different stages. Cognitive maps of three decision-makers, in
three companies, have been used as a tool to measure the changes
in the thought processes of decision-makers and to measure the
rate of sharing among them after each intervention. Analysis and
evaluation of the rate of sharing and the contents leads to some
guidelines for more effective intervention.
Traffic Deadlock Caused by Two Intersections
In this work, we discovered an important feedback structure in
the traffic flow, which generates a threshold value that causes
deadlock in the traffic flow. There is a two-way main artery,
which is fed by two intersecting roads in reverse directions.
When the traffic flow is congested, one of the main arteries may
become full. Then the cars coming from the intersecting road that
feeds this artery stop in the junction. By doing so, these cars
cause the other main artery, which is in the reverse direction, to
be blocked. Therefore the tail of the jam in this artery becomes
longer and the cars entering the artery stop in the outflow
junction of the first artery. Since the other road is also blocked,
the outflow of this road becomes blocked and none can move
anywhere. This work is evidence for the argument that individual
movements - movements which do not care about the system
structure - lead to system crash.
Developing a Balanced Scorecard with System
Dynamics
The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is a popular concept for
performance measurement, because it focuses attention of
management on just a few measures and bridges different
functional areas (both financial and non-financial measures are
included in the BSC). But, the BSC has also received some
criticism. In this paper five limitations of the use of the BSC are
38 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
uthor Index
Kim van Oorschot
kim@ minase.nl
Minase
Postbus 278
5000 AG Tilburg
The Netherlands
Tarek Al Etr
tamba15@ hotmail.com
Khaled Wahba
khaled.wahba@ riti.org
Cairo University
42 El-Higaz Street Heliopolis
Cairo 11223 Egypt
discussed: BSCs focus on unidirectional causality, are unable to
distinguish delays between actions and their impact on
performance, have a dearth of validation capabilities, integrate
insufficiently strategy with operational measures and suffer from
intemal biases. We propose a system dynamics approach to
develop a BSC in order to overcome these limitations. We
present a case study from the insurance sector where this
approach is applied. The results suggest that developing a BSC
with system dynamics is a promising approach to supplement
existing BSC frameworks.
Reengineering the Furniture Industry in Egypt
to Help Improve its Export Capability: A
System Dynamics View
The furniture industry around the world is undergoing a period of
rapid globalization. With the rapid globalization of the furniture
industry and the competitive pressures of imports, a nation has to
find a way to stay competitive. The furniture industry in Egypt
experienced a lot of weaknesses and constraints that limited
industry growth and hence its exports. Most important are the
quality, delivery delays and others that are rooted fundamentally
into the current structure of the industry. The objective of the
paper is to propose group of policies that might help reengineer
the Egyptian fumiture industry. As outcomes of the research, the
authors have suggested two group of policies based on the scale
of the furniture manufacturer using a time framework approach.
A system dynamic methodology has been used to conceptualize
the dynamics of the fumiture industry in Egypt, and hence
propose macro solutions to the observed problems by the
researchers.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 39
r Index
Angelo Alessandri
angelo@ ian.ge.cnr it
IAN-CNR National Research Council
Intelligent Systems and Automation
Via De Marini 6
16149 Genova Italy
Cristiano Cervellera
cristiano.cervellera@ dist.unige.it
University of Genoa
Dept of Communications Computer Sci
Via Opera Pia 13
16145 Genova Italy
Filippo Grassia
filippo@ ian.ge.cnr.it
IAN-CNR National Research Council
Intelligent Systems and Automation
Via De Marini 6
16149 Genova Italy
Stephen Alessi
steve-alessi@ uiowa.edu
University of Iowa
370 Lindquist Center
Towa City IA 52242 USA
Ma Isabel Alonso
Magdaleno
ialonso@ correo.uniovi.es
University of Oviedo
Campus del Cristo
Avda del Cristo s/n
33071 Oviedo Asturias Spain
©)
Optimal Neural Feedback C ontrol for Carbon
Tax Policy Gauging in Transportation
The effects of carbon emissions have been the objective of an
investigation that was based on the model of the nation-wide
transportation system with railway, waterway, and roadway. The
dynamics of such a complex phenomenon depends on a set of
control variables (i.e., the percentage of carbon tax on the fuel
cost, the operational cost coverages, and growth rates of the
various transportation modes) that can be chosen in a suitable
way so as to minimize a given cost function (eg., carbon
emissions, public and private costs, fuel consumption, etc.). This
problem has been addressed by searching for a feedback control
law that can be approximated by means of the combination of
both Dynamic Programming and neural networks. Preliminary
simulation results with the afore-mentioned model are presented
to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Model Transparency in Educational System
Dynamics
Model transparency is increasingly identified as a positive or
even necessary characteristic of system-dynamics-based learning
environments, where model transparency is usually identified as
providing modified causal-loop diagrams, equations, or verbal
descriptions of a model. The theses of this presentation are: (1)
Model transparency may be beneficial for some educational
goals and conditions, but model opacity may be beneficial for
others. (2) Model transparency is a continuum (from transparent
to opaque) and is multidimensional (for different aspects of a
model, such as its variables, stock-flow combinations, and cause-
effect relationships). (3) There are many methods of providing
information about a model, and these too will depend on the
goals and other characteristics of a leaming environment. Rather
than seeking to prove that model transparency is valuable, system
dynamics researchers should be elaborating on how goals and
other conditions determine optimal levels and methods of
transparency.
Administrative Policies and MIR Vacancies:
Impact on the Spanish Health System
This work shows the impact over the Spanish health system of
two policies that have been used, and still are used, in the
allocation of MIR vacancies. These policies are the allocation of
MIR vacancies according to the number of graduates and, the
allocation MIR vacancies according to the historical “bag” of
graduates without specialty. This comparison is based on the
40 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
r Index
Ma Isabel Alonso
Magdaleno
ialonso@ correo.uniovi.es
University of Oviedo
Campus del Cristo
Avda del Cristo s/n
33071 Oviedo Asturias Spain
Ma Isabel Alonso
Magdaleno (S)
ialonso@ correo.uniovi.es
University of Oviedo
Campus del Cristo
Avda del Cristo s/n
33071 Oviedo Asturias Spain
evolution of the historical “bag” of graduates without specialty. It
is observed that this last policy benefits more to the community
than the previous one. Both policies harm the evolution of the
specialized doctors’ “bag,” although the allocations according to
the historical “bag” harm it even more. By means of the
simulation the interrelation is observed that exists among both
“bags” (the improvement of one of them implies harm to the
other one). The adoption of these proposals spreads to improve
the situation of the medical community in the short term but it
harms it in the long term.
Dynamic Analysis of Some Proposals for the
Management of the Number of Physicians in
Spain
In this work the impact of some proposals formulated by several
groups involved on the Spanish health system is analyzed. The
purpose of these proposals is to solve the current imbalance
problem among supply and demand of physicians. In this study,
the impact over the Spanish health system of every proposed
measure is shown; as well as its comparison with the evolution of
the system according to the allocation policies that are currently
used. According to the obtained results it is concluded that the
proposal that offers better results in the long term is the one
carried out by the Spanish Society of Primary Care Medicine.
Nevertheless, none of them is appropriate to eliminate or to
reduce the outlined problem, although they can improve certain
collectives or groups in certain moments.
Elaboration of a Model for the Management of
the Number of Specialized Doctors in the
Spanish Health System
The purpose of this study is to analyze the existence of an
important imbalance between supply and demand of specialized
doctors in the Spanish health system. The specific sequence
followed in the supply of MIR vacancies, along the eighties and
nineties, has generated this problem. The way of allocation of
MIR vacancies, along the time, has created many problems. This
fact has led the Spanish health system toward a situation of
uncertainty and growing inefficiency. This work’s objective is
the elaboration of a model whose purpose is to identify the
causes or origins of those imbalances, so that alternative policies
are proposed and to leam of the system behavior rather than the
realization of future forecasts. In this way, the factors that seem
to interact generating the observed symptoms are identified.
Lastly, the main feedback loops are shown and the causal
diagram of departure is elaborated.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 41
uthor Index
Pablo Alvarez deT oledo
Saavedra
pablo@ pluto.us.es
Fernando Nuiiez Hernandez
fnunez@ esi.us.es
University of Seville
Dept of Industrial Management
Camino de los Descubrimientos s/n
41092 Sevilla Spain
Adolfo Crespo Marquez
adolfo.crespo@ esi.us.es
Universidad de Sevilla
Dept Organizacion Industrial
Camino de los Descubrimientos s/n
41092 Sevilla Spain
Carlos Usabiaga Ibanez
cusaiba@ dee.upo.es
Yolanda Rebollo Sanz
yirebsan@ dee.upo.es
University Pablo de Olavide
Dept of Economics and Business
Ctra Utrera km 1 41013 Sevilla Spain
Carlos Alvarez Sierra
alsimit@ hotmail.com
C P Jr Huanuco No 978
Huancayo Peru
Abel Alvarez Sierra
abelsierra72@ hotmail.com
C P Jr Huanuco No 978
Huancayo Peru
Bahaa Eldin Aly Abdel
Aleem
baleem@ idsc.neteg
Autoregressive Models and System Dynamics:
A Case Study for the Labor Market in Spain
Autoregressive (AR) models explain, partially at least, the values
of a variable or set of variables, based on the past values of this
variable or set of variables. It has been found that this kind of
simple model, with a small number of variables and parameters,
can seriously compete, in terms of its prediction capabilities,
with the large macroeconomic models with hundreds of variables
and parameters developed during the fifties and sixties. This
paper tries to show how system dynamics models may easily
incorporate fundamental elements of AR models. As an
illustration, we present a case study from the labor market in
Spain. We explain the fundamentals of the problem and the
formulation of the corresponding AR model. Finally, we develop
the model within the framework of system dynamics. We believe
this work is a good example of how system dynamics and
econometric models can be considered as complementary
analysis tools to deal effectively with complex problems.
Coordination Between Monetary Policy and
Fiscal Policy by Means of a Model of Dynamic
Simulation
The end of all economic models is to elevate the level of life.
Each govemment tries to find appropriate measures to improve
the national economy, without being able to succeed because
they refuse to understand that the whole economy is a system
with subsystems that interact the one with the other. The current
government is promulgating laws after a superficial debate in the
congress of the republic or by means of ordinances of urgency.
Such laws are experiments that use the country like a laboratory.
In the investigation presented, fiscal politics and monetary
politics are analyzed by means of a model of dynamic
simulation. Effects are caused in multiple social variables and in
the economic growth of the country. It is demonstrated that the
decisions adopted by the current administration don't favor a real
economic growth of the country
The War on Terrorism: Conditions for Success
and Failure
Though terrorism has been a problem for decades, now it has
developed both in size and sophistication to a terrifying extent.
The 11th of September attacks on various targets in the U.S.A.
are living evidence of this. These radical developments raise
42 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
uthor Index
Dahlia M. Rasmy
darasmy@ iti-idsc.gov.eg
Information Technology Institute
4 Ahmed El-haseb St
Apartment 10
Roda Cairo Egypt
Soowoong An
Kiyoung Uhm
kyhum70@ yahoo.com
Systemix Co
Victoria Building 1305
705-1 Y uksam-Dong
Kangman-Ku Seoul 135-709 Korea
Ki-Chan Kim
kckim@ catholic.ac.kr
Catholic University of Korea
43-1 Y okkok 2 Dong
Wonmi-gu Puchon Kyonggi-do
420-743 Seoul Korea
Sangman Kwak
skwak@ townisp.com
Systemix Co
Victoria Building 1305
705-1 Y uksam-Dong Kangman-Ku
Seoul 135-709 Korea
Santiago Arango
santiago.arango@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
PO 7800
N-5020 Bergen Norway
Ricardo A. Smith
rasmith@ perseus.unalmed.edu.co
Isaac Dyner
idyner@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Carrera 80 #65 - 223
AA 1027 Medellin Colombia
Silvia Osorio
serious questions about the effectiveness of the counterterrorism
scenarios used until the 11th of September. This simulation-
based study inspects the effectiveness of the American reaction
to the 11th of September events. The model simulates the war
from its beginning till the elapse of two months, a period in
which major military operations took place. The model shows the
behavior of the Americans during the war as well as various
behaviors including those of the terrorists, westem media
coverage and the Arab and Islamic world. Analysis of the model
reveals the reasons why the war has failed in achieving some of
its major goals and suggests a more effective strategy.
System Dynamics Model for Forecasting
Demand of Each Automobile Type in the
Korean Automobile Market
A system dynamics model is formulated to forecast the
automobile demand in Korea. Until the present, managers have
used rule-of-thumb methods based on salespersons’ experience
and past sales performances. However, as the Korean auto
market has changed from a supply leading market into a demand
leading market, managers need more logical tools. There have
been also arguments that a pure statistical model is too robust
and there is no room to incorporate the rich experiences of
salespersons nor managers. The newly developed system
dynamics model is an experiment to combine the statistical
method and the system dynamics method. The model classifies
automobiles into 11 types, and the demand is forecasted based
upon the top-down approach spiced up with the bottom-up
approach. The main structure of the model includes stocks and
rates, a regression model, and many calibration models. Vensim
DSS is used for the system dynamics model and the calibrations,
and Stata is used for the regression model.
A System Dynamics Model to Analyze
Investments in Power Generation in C olombia
The Colombian electricity sector was restructured in 1994. Under
the new legal framework, investment decisions for building new
capacity need to incorporate elements of risk and uncertainty. In
these circumstances it is advantageous for agents to leam about
market risks for assessing the implications of their decisions.
Microworlds or simulators, such as the one presented in this
paper, intend to help investors for better understanding
uncertainty and its implications over their decision-making
processes. The authors developed a microworld, supported on a
system dynamics model, in which it is possible for the decision
maker to assess his/her investments in capacity under simulated
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 43
Author Index
Carlos A. Ariza
carlos.ariza@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
Alan K. Graham
alan.graham@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
Steven Arquitt
cms@ uq.edu.au
University of Queensland
Centre for Marine Studies
Brisbane QLD 4072 Australia
Ron Johnstone
University of Queensland
Centre for Marine Studies
Brisbane QLD 4072 Australia
conditions. The developed microworld for the Colombian
electricity market is described in some detail and applications are
presented.
Quick and Rigorous, Strategic and
Participative: 12 Ways to Improve on the
Expected Tradeoffs
Lyneis (1980, 1999) describes a phased approach to modeling
that has proven successful for large strategy consulting
engagements. This process usually requires months of modeling
effort and multiple iterations to achieve the level of detail
required for specific answers. Strategic analyses are episodic,
however, and managers expect faster tumarounds and more
specific, trusted results than is possible without a detailed,
calibrated model already in place. We present here a refinement
to the phased approach, which might be called lean strategy
modeling, that is able to deliver substantial value in just six
weeks. It increases the scope of testing and validation on what
would otherwise qualify as an insight model. The process is
divided in three stages: Issues definition and prioritization; model
development and analysis; model-based analysis and strategy
exploration. The approach is illustrated with an example about a
client's degree of control over new technology diffusion in an
emerging market.
A Scoping and C onsensus Building Model for
Understanding the Dynamics of a Blue-Green
Algae Bloom
So-called nuisance blooms of Lyngbya majuscula have been
occuring with increasing frequency in tropical coastal waters
around the world. Outbreaks of this cyanobacterium (blue-green
algae) threaten water quality, coastal ecosystems, and can be
harmful in instances of human contact. While scientific and
popular theories abound regarding lyngbya bloom initiation and
growth, a clear research agenda has not emerged. In keeping with
the modelling approach suggested by Costanza and Ruth (1997),
this paper offers a scoping and consensus building model for the
development of research directions. Development of this initial
model is reported here as are simulation results that are
instrumental in setting priorities for empirical investigations and
future simulation-based research. It is expected that this
preliminary model, after additional empirical work is completed,
will lead to research and management models that will help set
policy for community response to Lyngbya blooms.
44 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
uthor Index
Daniel J. W. Arthur
darthur@ plymouth.ac.uk
University of Plymouth
Moneycentre Floor 1
Dept for Enterprise
Plymouth Devon PL4 8AA UK
Graham W. Winch
graham.winch@ pbs.plym.ac.uk
University of Plymouth
Plymouth Business School
Drake Circus
Plymouth Devon PL48AA UK
Diana Azevedo-Carns
dcarns@ umassd.edu
University of Massachusetts Dartmouth
285 Old Westport Road
North Dartmouth MA 02474-2300
USA
Raul Bagni
raul.bagni@ tiscalinet.it
Clivo della Montagnola 10
00142 Roma Italy
Roberto Berchi
r.berchi@ tiscalinet.it
EICON SNC di Roberto Berchi
via Folli 5
20134 Milano Italy
Pasquale Cariello
pat.car@ tiscalinet.it
Making System Dynamics Accessible to SME's
Through User-Parameterised G eneric Models
System dynamics is a powerful strategic analysis approach, but it
can also be a costly one, if all models must be constructed largely
from scratch. This appears to preclude their widespread use in
small-medium enterprise (SME) applications. Field research has
shown that generic parameterisable simulations can challenge
mental models and enhance confidence as a firm faces major
change. We discuss whether such simulators could be the only
viable option for SME's to benefit from system dynamics
modelling and scenario planning.
Integrating System Dynamics into a C ourse on
Sustainability: A Model-Based Reasoning
Approach
The Science of Engineering is an undergraduate course for non-
science majors. The course combines environmental concepts
with information technology concepts in a format designed for
non-technical majors. This responds to a growing trend to
integrate information technology principles and concepts into the
broader higher education curriculum. Many institutions require
not only basic computer literacy, but also that students have
demonstrated competency with information technology in
specific disciplinary contexts. In order for this type of course to
be more than an academic exercise, however, students must find
the curriculum to be relevant and applicable to their everyday
experience. Toward this end, an undergraduate course was
redesigned to provide opportunities for non-science majors to
conceptualize global issues and environmental concepts in terms
that can be comprehended on a more personal, experiential level.
System dynamics modeling has been instrumental in the
approach to redesign.
System Dynamics A pplied to Epidemics
This paper presents an approach to infectious disease analysis
through system dynamics methodology, following the early
works of Ritchie-Dunham. The case study concerns the Bovine
Leukosis Virus (BLV), that exclusively strikes cattle. The
infected animals, exposed to secondary infections, become less
productive bringing about an economic loss. In order to avoid the
spread of the infection among dairy farms an eradication national
plan is operative in Italy since 1996, but points of infection are
still being recorded. Hence deeper analyses are required to
understand the causes of the endemic behavior of BLV.
Analytical models of epidemic spread have been implemented
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 45
Author Index
Matthias Baier
matthias.baier@ soc.lu.se
Lund University
Sociology of Law
Box 114
227 38 Lund Sweden
Christer Kalén
christer kalen@ planteco.lu.se
Lund University
Department of Ecology
Ecology Building
223 62 Lund Sweden
Bjorn Tallak Bakken
btbakken@ fsaf.mil.no
Norwegian Defence Education Ctr
Norwegian Defence Leadership Inst
Oslo mil/Akershus
NO-0015 Oslo Norway
Martin Gilljam
jmg@ ffi.no
Norwegian Defence Research Est
PO Box 25
NO-2027 Kjeller Norway
since the first decades of the XXth century, but, their practical
use is often difficult. System dynamics models allow
epidemiologists to do a set of what-if analyses, with the purpose
of assessing the system’s behavior under various conditions, and
afterwards, to compare and evaluate the results of alternative
sanitary policies.
The Dynamics of Law and Normative
Structures
The methodology of system dynamics was applied to better
understand why a large infrastructure projects in Sweden caused
severe environmental and health damages. Environmental laws
failed to prevent that detrimental actions were taken. In fact, they
were neglected by the govemmental agency in charge of the
project. By specifically studying the dynamics of feedback
systems during project implementation we found crucial aspects
triggering a range of decisions that eventually led to the scandal.
Several problems caused a prolonged delay that became costly
for the company responsible. This together with political will and
cultural aspects influenced the direction of the decisions taken.
We conclude that the decisions taken can better be explained as
placed in the intersection between rationality and normativity.
We suggest that an analysis of the normative structure can be
useful to better understand the underlying reason for action and
strategies - legal or not - may therefore be developed to prevent
similar events.
Training to Improve Decision Making: System
Dynamics A pplied to Higher-L evel Military
Operations
This paper is concemed with how to improve the training of
higher-level military officers, given that the conditions for
learning in “conventional” exercises (with a high degree of
realism and complexity) are suboptimal. From other applications
(e.g., business and public management) we know that a key
feature of effective decision training is high exercise frequency.
Another requirement is for the decision-maker to see the full
range of consequences resulting from his/her decisions. Both
aspects require time compression in the training environment.
We suggest applying the same principles when training military
commanders, in a newly created concept termed Minimalist
Decision Training (MDT). MDT is characterized by simplifying
the commander’s operating environment, radically compressing
time and space. In MDT, a typical two-day exercise can cover
several repetitions of a thirty-day conflict and at the same time
provide continuous feedback about the unfolding of the conflict,
consequential to decisions made.
46 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Juan Bald
jbald@ pas.azti.es
AZTI Foundation
Dept of Oceanography and Marine Env
Herrera Kaia Portualdea z/g
20110 Pasaia (Gipuzkoa) Spain
Angel Borja
AZTI Foundation
Dept of Oceanography and Marine Env
Herrera Kaia Portualdea z/g
20110 Pasaia (Gipuzkoa) Spain
Federico Barnabe
barnabe@ unisi.it,
University of Bergen
Dept of Information Science
Herman Foss Gate 6
N-5075 Bergen Norway
©)
Mathias Markus Fischer
mathias.fischer@ gmx.de
Steinbeisstrasse 8
D-71083 Herrenberg Germany
Marcio de Oliveira Barros
marcio@ cos.ufr).br
COPPE-UFRJ
Computer Science Department
Caixa Postal 68511 CEP 21945-970
Rio de Janeiro-RJ Brazil
Modeling the Management of Clam (Ruditapes
decussatus) Exploitation in the Plentzia Estuary
(Basque Country, Northern Spain)
Some of the estuaries of the Basque Country (Northern Spain)
have been areas of exploitation of clam populations, by both
professional and illegal fishermen. The Department of Fisheries
of the Basque Government needs to understand the situation
relating to these populations; and provide a tool to establish
adequate management for the exploitation of clams. In order to
simulate different alternatives for the exploitation, based upon
scientific data on the population, a system dynamics model was
employed. This study improves previous experiences in
modelling clam exploitation in the Plentzia and Mundaka
estuaries. This analysis was undertaken in order to establish the
effect of modifying the number of fishermen, the aperture-close
season of captures, the minimum sustainable biomass, the
exploitation area and the minimum legal length for shellfishing
in millimetres. This approach tries to establish the sustainable
exploitation of the clam populations in the Basque Country.
Group Model Building at a Chemical Company:
System Dynamics for Knowledge Elicitation and
Scenario Training
The paper presents the outcomes of a group model building
project at a Norwegian chemical company that produces calcium
carbide. The project led to the creation of a system dynamics
model describing the production process and of a computer-
based interactive learning environment, a microworld, meant to
reproduce most of the features of the operating and controlling
software actually used in the company. The process of
organizational leaming, the gaining of a better common
understanding about the production process and the development
of the different mental models of the plant operators are some of
the main goals of the project. Moreover, the method followed
during the project can be considered as “general” and could be
used in a variety of production processes, mainly in most of the
manufacturing industrial firms, both for modeling production
processes and for teaching and training the operators that manage
those systems.
Evaluating the Use of System Dynamics Models
in Software Project Management
This paper presents an empirical study aiming to evaluate the
application of system dynamics models in software project
management. In this study, a project conceming the specification
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 47
uthor Index
Claudia Maria Lima Werner
werner@ cos.uft).br
COPPE/UFRJ
Computer Science Department
68511 CEP 21945-970
Rio de Janeiro-RJ Brazil
Guilherme Horta Travassos
ght@ cos.ufrj.br
COPPE/UFRJ
Computer Science Department
68511 CEP 21945-970
Rio de Janeiro-RJ Brazil
Marcio de Oliveira Barros
marcio@ cos.uft).br
COPPE-UFRJ
Computer Science Department
Caixa Postal 68511 CEP 21945-970
Rio de Janeiro-RJ Brazil
Claudia Maria Lima Werner
werner@ cos.uft).br
COPPE/UFRJ
Computer Science Department
68511 CEP 21945-970
Rio de Janeiro-RJ Brazil
Guilherme Horta Travassos
ght@ cos.ufrj.br
COPPE/UFRJ
Computer Science Department
68511 CEP 21945-970
Rio de Janeiro-RJ Brazil
John Barton
jabarton@ ozemail.com.au
Marshall Place Associates
Level 4 114 William Street
Melboume/Victoria 3000 Australia
and implementation of part of an academic control system for a
graduate department was proposed for several participants. Each
participant was asked to act as the project manager. Participants
should make decisions in order to finish the project in the
smallest time possible. A software project emulator was
developed, where participants analyzed the project status and
enacted their decisions. Half of the eighteen participants
managed the project based only on their personal knowledge and
experience, while the second half were allowed to use system
dynamics models to support their decisions. The results from the
experimental study analysis show that, for the selected
participants, managers using system dynamics models to support
their decision perform better than managers who base their
decisions only upon personal experience.
Enhancing Metamodels with Scenarios: Plug-
and-Simulate Extensions for Model Developers
In a previous work, we presented the concept of metamodels, an
extension to system dynamics that allows the development and
specialization of domain models. A domain model provides a
high-level representation for the elements that compose a
knowledge area. Specific models developed for the domain are
based on these elements, inheriting their behavior from the
domain model. Traditional system dynamics constructors (stocks,
rates, and processes) describe the behavior of domain elements.
Domain models are believed to simplify model development
within a knowledge area. In this paper, we present scenario
models, which act as “plug-&-simulate” extensions to domain
models. A scenario model allows a developer to change the
behavior of domain elements without direct and error-prone
intervention in the domain model equations. While analyzing a
model, a developer can select relevant scenarios and activate
them upon the model components. We present the system
dynamics metamodel, the structure of scenario models, and their
integration with specific models.
The New Era in Managing Supply C hains:
Lessons from Industrial Dynamics
Developments in technology have led to a revolution in how we
can conceive and manage supply chains. Despite the success of
companies like Dell, and the availability of an extensive
literature and of consulting services etc, the performance of many
supply chains has not improved. System dynamics in its earlier
guise as Industrial Dynamics has much to offer in understanding
this apparent dilemma. Evidence suggests the lessons of the Beer
Game are as relevant today as they were 40 or 50 years ago! This
48 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
hor Index
Steffen Bayer
s.c.bayer@ sussex.ac.uk
University of Sussex
SPRU-Science and Tech Policy
Research
Mantell Building
Falmer Brighton BN1 9RF UK
Gary Bell
g.bell@ sbu.ac.uk
South Bank University
School of Computing IS and Maths
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA UK
Maggie C ooper
maggie@ soi.city.ac.uk
City University
Dept of Computing
Northampton Square
London EC1V 0OHB UK
Jonathan Warwick
warwick@ sbu.ac.uk
South Bank University
School of Computing IS and Maths
103 Borough Road
London SE1 0AA UK
paper outlines recent developments in supply chain thinking and
demonstrates the important contribution that system dynamics
can make to resolve a number of current supply chain debates.
Post-Hospital Intermediate Care: Examining
Assumptions and Systemic C onsequences of a
Health Policy Prescription
The provision of health and social care for an increasing elderly
population is a challenge facing many societies. The financial
and social problems associated with long-term institutional care
and the use of beds in acute hospitals by patients who are
medically stable and do not necessarily require expensive
hospital care have gained particular attention. UK policy makers
advocate the establishment of intermediate care services as a
partial solution to both of these problems. In this presentation
system dynamics is used to examine the logic behind these
policies and bring into focus the crucial role of (frequently
overlooked) assumptions about costs and outcomes of
intermediate care for their systemic consequences. This work
shows how valuable and practically relevant insights can be
gained from an analysis of the sensitivity of the behaviour of a
relatively simple model to changes in underlying assumptions,
even if the quality of the available data is poor.
Advocating A ckoff’s Interactive Planning
Concepts and Principles for Software Project
Management
This poster extends the use of Ackoff’s interactive planning
concepts and principles to the domain of software project
management. His criticisms of traditional operational research
are highlighted and applied to current algorithmic cost models
and preparation methods used for software estimation. A review
of selected models is provided. These are evaluated through
examining their estimation performance and explanatory
capability. A limited survey of independent empirical research on
the estimation performance of specific models is presented.
Next, an archetypal cost model is matched against the top ten
software risks in order to examine its explanatory capability. The
survey and comparative study together indicate that over the last
two decades there has been no significant improvement in
software cost estimation. We conclude by showing how Ackoff’s
reconceptualisation of operational research and its supporting
principles could guide future directions in software project
management, with reference to the general approach to
developing and applying algorithmic cost models and key meta-
characteristics underpinning them.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 49
r Index
Salim Belyazid
salim.belyazid@ chemeng.lth.se
Lund University
Dept of Chemical Engineering
Box 124
221 00 Lund Sweden
Mats G. Svensson
mats.svensson@ chemeng.th.se
Lund University
Environmental Science Center
PO Box 118
S-22100 Lund Sweden.
Harald Sverdrup
harald.sverdrup@ chemeng.lth.se
Lund University
Dept of Chemical Engineering
Box 124
221 00 Lund Sweden
Walt Beyeler
webeyel@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Critical Inf Surety Dept 6515
1515 Eubank SE MS 0451
Albuquerque NM 87123 USA
Theresa Brown
tibrown@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Critical Inf Surety Dept 6515
1515 Eubank SE MS 0451
Albuquerque NM 87123 USA
Stephen H. Conrad
shconra@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Critical Inf Surety Dept 6515
1515 Eubank SE MS 0451
Albuquerque NM 87123 USA
Carmine Bianchi
bianchi@ unipa.it
University of Palermo
Faculty of Economics
Piazza A Gentili 12 (c/o CUSA)
90143 Palermo Italy
Studying a Multi-Dimensional Problem Using
System Dynamics: The Case of Sustainability in
the Semi-Arid Argane Forest in Morocco
This paper studies the dynamics of the Argane forest system in
the region of Taroudant, Morocco. The study attempts to define
the main causes of the unsustainability of the system and to
identify possible measures susceptible of achieving ecological,
economic, and social sustainability in the Argane forest.
Scenarios of the future development of the forest system are
simulated under different conditions of rainfall. Based on
conclusions from these scenarios, ideas for a more sustainable
future are suggested and scenarios run to evaluate them. The
study concludes that it is possible to achieve a sustainable future
for the Argane forest system under three main conditions. First,
dependence on irrigated agriculture has to be reduced. Second,
the regeneration of the forest must be insured. Finally, population
growth needs to be limited in order to avoid dependence on
migration as an extemal outlet of the system.
A Modular Dynamic Simulation Model of
Infrastructure Interdependencies
Electric power supply in Califomia depends on the successful
interaction of a large number of processes, such as generator
operation, power transmission and distribution, power marketing,
and delivery of fuel to power generators. In the winter of 2000-
2001, trends in power supply and demand, along with plausible
load projections for a warm summer, were considered likely to
cause widespread shortages in electric power supply in
Califomia. We developed a set of interconnected dynamic
simulation models to evaluate the potential costs of power
outages, and the effectiveness of increased natural gas storage in
improving power supply conditions. Although observed natural
gas prices do not show periodic spikes, the physical constraints
that lead to price spikes in the model are a real feature of the
infrastructures in Califomia. These features have the potential to
confer market power on the operators of gas storage facilities. As
overall demand for gas increases, gas import and production
capacities, rather than storage volumes, become limiting factors.
Discerning the Inertial Effects of Current
Decisions on Long-Term Performance in Family
Firms: The Rise and Fall of Casa Florio
Investigating the rise and fall of a business is commonly viewed
as a matter of searching single causes to be linked with
corresponding effects. Such an atomistic and static picture of the
50 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Index
Enzo Bivona
enzo.bivona@ libero.it
CUSA System Dynamics Group
Piazza A Gentili 12
90143 Palermo Italy
Michel Bijlsma
michel. bijlsma@ nl.pweglobal.com
PwC Consulting BV
Transistorstraat 7
PO Box 60 000
1320 AA Almere Netherlands
Wouter J ongebreur
wouter.jongebreur@ nl.pweglobal.com
PwC Consulting BV
Transistorstraat 7
PO Box 60 000
1320 AA Almere The Netherlands
S. Winthagen
PwC Consulting BV
Transistorstraat 7
PO Box 60 000
1320 AA Almere The Netherlands
Tatyana Bitkova
abouryak@ yahoo.com
Kharkov Karazin National University
1 Mironositskaya str
61002 Kharkov Ukraine
Alexander Bouryak
abouryak@ yahoo.com
Kharkov State University of Civil
Engineering
40 Sumskaya str
61002 Kharkov Ukraine
driving forces of business success and decline often produces a
superficial understanding of observed phenomena. This might be
the case of Casa Florio, a family company successfully started in
the beginning of the 800's. Within the space of two generations,
it became a giant embracing different unrelated industries.
Business success gradually gave rise to a strong image of Casa
Florio in the Mediterranean area, which exponentially boosted
entrepreneurial and political contacts and the Florios’ quality of
life. However, by the end of the 800’s, in spite of the Florios’
tising financial and social performance, both the firm and the
family collapsed. This paper adopts a feedback approach focused
on the analysis of dynamic relationships between Casa Florio’s
values and its local and extended environment ’s culture.
Application of System Dynamics in Value Based
Management: An Approach Based on a Real-
Life Case
Value Based Management is a common management technique
to support organisations to get in a good shape to meet
competition in the current turbulent economic era. The complete
concept of Value Based Management has a very broad scope and
is designed to support an organisation in aligning the business
strategy, business processes and decisions in order to create
maximum value for its stakeholders. In order to get an
understanding of the way the business is organized, to identify
the most sensitive value drivers and to determine their impact on
the creation of value, it is essential to qualitatively or
quantitatively model the organization. In this article we describe
the application of system dynamics in the Value Based
Management context in order to support strategy development,
based on experiences of PwC Consulting in The Netherlands. We
identify the areas where system dynamics adds value to Value
Based Management and describe a number of steps we take in
client engagements.
Engineer or Oracle?: SD/ST Viewed from the
System-T hinking-A ctivity Approach
This paper distinguishes between system dynamics (SD) and
systems thinking (ST). In order to discuss their
similarities/differences and reciprocal functions, a meta-position
is necessary. It is suggested that such a position exists in another-
culture paradigm, ie. in the System-Thinking-Activity (STA)
approach, elaborated by the Moscow Methodological Circle
(MMC). STA schemes are used to describe the sense of ST, as it
is understood in SD. Using the STA approach, the problem
solver is more an engineer than the SD analyst who could be
described as an oracle. Indicating a number of basic
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 51
uthor Index
Alfredo 0. Moscardini
a.moscardini@ sunderland.ac.uk
University of Sunderland
School of Computing Engineering &
Technology
St Peter’s Campus
Sunderland SR6 ODD UK
Ivan Blecic
ivan@ iuav.it
Paola Rizzi
rizzi@ iuav.it
Ist Univ di Architettura di Venezia
Dept of Planning
Cannaregio 2669
30121 Venezia Italy
Arnaldo Cecchini
cecchini@ uniss.it
Ivan Blecic
ivan@ iuav.it
Ist Univ di Architettura di Venezia
Dept of Planning
Cannaregio 2669
30121 Venezia Italy
Arnaldo Cecchini
cecchini@ uniss.it
Sadruddin Boga
skboga@ aol.com
Center for Creative Change
3211 NE 185 Street
Seattle WA 98155 USA
methodological difficulties in the moder development of ST, the
paper proposes a Thinking-Activity Theory as an ontological
foundation for SD/ST. The Activity-Organisational Games
(AOG) method is considered as a way of analysing problem
situations and of problem solving. It is suggested that the
assimilation of STA experience by SD/ST could have many other
significant consequences.
The Time Machine: Game and Forecast, Play
to Forecast
The aim of this article is to present various tools useful to “play”
with the concept of forecast for educational purpose, for
discussion enactment and for decision-making processes. This
“tool box” can reveal to be precious in various contexts, from
game, plain and simple, to formation activities and real case-
studies.
MaGA: Collective ‘Knowledge Maps'
MaGA (MAppe Globali di Apprendimento - “Global Maps of
Leaming”) is a Web-based software designed for a collective
construction of “knowledge maps.” The founding working
hypothesis of the software is the idea that it is possible to
represent a collective “knowledge” on a particular topic through
a network of concepts, each containing definitions and references
of various types. The grounding idea is that at the basis of the
definition of every single lemma there is not a “substitutive
semiotics” where a concept corresponds to a term to be defined;
rather, the former is just a limit area of a single term, beyond
which we find the activity of a multitude of users that has
contributed to the construction of that particular local knowledge.
References to other terms and to external objects (bibliographies,
web-biographies, etc.) constitute hence a Thesaurus that one can
navigate through: it allows us to leave a single concept and to
start a “hyper-textual” navigation within a “library.”
Advancing the Frontiers of System Dynamics
Through Higher Orders of Paradox
In systems dynamics, certain archetypes, such as fixes that fail
and shifting the burden, contain a combination of balancing and
reinforcing loops that exacerbates the original cause. Such a
paradox represents a shift from a mechanistic paradigm inherent
in a balancing loop to a more holistic paradigm. However, there
is a second order paradox that is generally neglected in the
analysis of systems dynamics. It is characterized by mutual
52 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
uthor Index
Lars Bollen
bollen@ informatik.uni-duisburg.de
H. Ulrich Hoppe
hoppe@ informatik uni-duisburg.de
Niels Pinkwart
pinkwart@ informatik.uni-duisburg.de
University of Duisburg
Inst for Computer Science
47048 Duisburg Germany
Marcelo Milrad
marcelo.milrad@ framkom.se
Framkom & Vaxjé University
School of Mathematics and Sys Eng
Videum Science Park
351 95 Vaxjo Sweden
Rafael E. Bourguet
rbourgue@ campus.mly.itesm.mx
ITESM Campus Monterrey
Department of Systems Engineering
Av Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL Mexico
Rogelio Soto
r.soto@ ieee.org
ITESM Campus Monterrey
Center for Artificial Intelligence
Av Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL Mexico
Carlo Brugnoli
carlo.brugnoli@ uni-bocconi.it
SDA Bocconi
via Bocconi 8
20136 Milano Italy
causality of elements, as observed in new science, chaos theory
and mystical traditions. Furthermore, there is a third order
paradox that belongs to the spiritual domain. As we advance
from the first to the third order paradox, the causal relationships
between the opposites become subtler, until the duality
disappears. This paper presents a method of unveiling creative
solutions— ranging from the material to the spiritual— of puzzles
in complex living systems through the exploration of first,
second and third order paradoxes.
Collaborative Modeling in Group Learning
Environments
In this paper we present an interactive tool for modeling and
simulation as a basis for leaming with models and learning by
modeling. This tool, called Cool Modes, is capable of integrating
several modeling languages in one workspace. There are
language plug-ins, e.g., for system dynamics, Petri Nets, and
argumentation graphs. Furthermore, features like handwritten
notes or mathematical graphs are integrated. Collaboration and
group learning is facilitated in the form of synchronous work
with shared and private workspaces in a distributed computing
environment.
Qualitative Knowledge Acquisition Using Fuzzy
Logic and System Dynamics
Research results are exposed on policy representation based on
fuzzy logic and system dynamics. It is pretended to find a
method for representing qualitative knowledge on dynamics of
complex systems. Qualitative knowledge is considered the softest
part in human organizations and the hardest part to manage. The
set of fuzzy policies represented in the model pretends to carry
out a hotel business administration. This research sustains an
effort to integrate some of the benefits that fuzzy logic has
brought to the area of control systems by representing qualitative
knowledge of human operators to the discipline of system
dynamics by representing policies of decision-makers. The set of
policies and the hotel models have been implemented using the
“jthink” software. Results show the useful of the method in the
learning process of managers when the attention is explicitly paid
on the rules that transforms information into action.
The Dynamics of Venture Capital Companies
The existence of a strong venture capital industry is crucial for
the development of new, innovative companies and for
maintaining a high level of flexibility and innovation of an
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 53
r Index
economic system. The study of the development of the venture
capital industry and of venture capital companies has shown that
there are: 1. some key factors crucial for the start-up and
development of venture capital companies; 2. some positive
loops pushing their development; 3. some loops limting their
growth. After presenting a strategic analysis of the venture
capital industry and of venture capital companies, the paper
utilizes a "resource based" approach identifying: 1. the critical
"stocks" (resources) on which a venture capital company can
base its development; 2. the critical loops feeding these stocks of
resources; 3. the typical loops limiting the development of the
company. The paper can be useful for top managers of v.c.
companies and to senior managers of companies of any industry.
Francesco Burelli Entrepreneurial Personal Drive Becoming a
francesco.burelli@ edgardunn.com Limit to the Company Potential: An
Ege Dum Company Organizational Dynamics Perspective from a
120 Cannon Street UK Technology Start-up Case
London EC4N 6AS UK
A British technology start-up was failing to achieve sales targets
and suffering high attrition rates compared to a market
physiological rate. During a consulting assignment, the
organisational dynamics in a UK technology start-up were
observed. Issues affecting growth and commercial viability of the
company were found originating from an over-entrepreneurial
attitude in the founders that ignited some dangerous dynamics
within the organisation. Missing alignment of leadership and
entrepreneurial personalities within stakeholders’ interests
resulted in a situation in which even positive market potential
was failing to deliver. The organisational dynamics resulted in
causal loops that were reinforcing, with different delay times, in
a negative manner and impeding growth and _ business
development activities. By changing the leadership style with the
introduction of a new management, it has been possible to alter
the situation by enabling positive personnel expectations,
attitudes and behaviours.
Francesco Burelli Banking Back Office Processing Behavior:
Sie ie Considerations on a Process Activity Managed
Caudle House by Capacity Saturation Policies
120 Cannon Street
London EC4N 6AS UK This speech proposal describes an example taken from a work-
in-progress in which systems dynamics is used to reproduce and
simulate some back office activities within a financial
organization. The model does not support an initial hypothesis on
its own but is meant for the estimation of potential financial
losses originating from process behaviour dependent from
volumes of items in processing as part of a wider Operational
Risk Management exercise. By sampling and reproducing a key
54 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
uthor Index
Roland J. Burgman
rjburgman@ aol.com
Asset Economics Inc
200 Park Avenue South
Suite 1311
New York NY 10011 USA
James R. Burns
jimburns@ ttu.edu
Texas Tech University
Rawls College of Business Adm
Lubbock TX 79409-2101 USA
Onur Ulgen
ulgen@ umich.edu
University of Michigan, Dearborn
Engineering Dept
4901 Evergreen
Dearborn MI 48128 USA
process activity, it has been possible to observe how a processing
behaviour, optimised on capacity saturation by a traditional BPR
approach, presents inefficiencies that are not otherwise
intuitively evident. The value of this application is in the
modelling of personnel behaviour at changing work pressure and
its dynamics and it present some observation regarding the
personnel allocated to the activity and the overtime policy.
Shareowner Value Creation and the
Management of Intangible Assets
More than 50% of the Enterprise Value for the most important
North American companies is tied to their Future Growth
ValueTM. Statistical data is provided that shows the extent and
importance of this capital market reality. Importantly, the size
and sustainability of the Future Growth ValueTM component of
Enterprise Value is mainly tied to the management of intangibles.
Managing for value in a knowledge-based economy therefore
requires new insights into managing all strategic assets, including
all intangible strategic assets. This paper describes a new
approach to building “total” shareholder value driver models
based on system dynamic modeling principles. In so doing the
implications for comprehensive strategic asset recognition,
strategic asset valuation and management information system
requirements are explored. A case study, based on Sun
Microsystems, is presented that illustrates the comparative
benefits of employing system dynamics as a tool for gaining the
strategic insights necessary for “managing for value”.
A Matrix Architecture for Development of
System Dynamics Models
A matrix architecture for development of system dynamics
models is described. The approach concentrates on the
formulation of the Forrester stock and flow diagram, and
incorporates the concept of an interaction matrix to assist in the
formulation of such models. The interaction matrix is formally
derived. Set and graph-theoretic concepts are utilized in the
derivation. The mules (primitives) of system dynamics are
expressed in the form of definitions and axioms. From these
primitives, theorems are proven. The theorems describe whether
interaction between certain pairs of quantity types is possible and
what type of interaction can exist between the pairs. The
theorems are used to rationalize the interaction matrix. The
paper is accompanied by a companion article by the same authors
that employs the interaction matrix in a component development
strategy. The methodology is applied to example problems in the
companion paper.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 55
Author Index
James R. Burns
jimburns@ ttu.edu
Texas Tech University
Rawls College of Business Adm
Lubbock TX 79409-2101 USA
Onur Ulgen
ulgen@ umich.edu
University of Michigan, Dearborn
Engineering Dept
4901 Evergreen
Dearbom MI 48128 USA
Adolfo Canovi
adolfo.canovi@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
Sharon A. Els
sharon.els@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
Alan K. Graham
alan.graham@ paonsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
Alexander Voigt
alexander.voigt@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
A Component Strategy for the Formulation of
System Dynamics Models
A component strategy to the development of system dynamics
models is described. The approach concentrates on the
formulation of the Forrester stock and flow diagram, and
incorporates the concept of an interaction matrix to assist in the
formulation of such models. The strategy facilitates the
determination of the quantities to be included as well as the
existence of connectors between the quantities and the identities
of the quantities and connectors. The paper is accompanied by a
companion article in this proceedings by the same authors that
formally derives the interaction matrix. The advantages of a
component-based approach to model development include 1)
reuse of the components, 2) diminished dependence upon the
competence of the model-builder for the creation of quality
models, 3) greater opportunity for managers/policy makers to
build their own models from components rather than from
scratch, and 4) a development strategy that can be partially
automated.
Building a Sustainable, In-House System
Dynamics Capability: How an Internal System
Dynamics Group Can Develop a Distinctive
Service and Become an Enduring Component of
the Company’s Operations
As consultants we have worked with clients over many years to
develop their in-house system dynamics capabilities. Clearly,
there are advantages for our clients to continue the work with
intemal resources that we have often started. Despite strong
agreement by both consultants and clients on the benefits of
developing an in-house capability, these efforts generally last for
only a few years. In only a small number of cases have they
become self-sustained. Through review of our successes and
failures we can draw some conclusions on what is necessary to
create a sustainable in-house capability. The four key forces that
we have found influencing the long-term sustainability of an in-
house capability are: A) creating, maintaining and "advertising"
the internal center of excellence; B) using specific value-added
analyses in the regular business planning cycle or as part of
standard business processes; C) developing and maintaining an
executive sponsor; and D) using external consultants to jump-
start the process and periodically refresh the in-house capability.
56 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Steven A. Cavaleri Evaluating the Performance Efficacy of Systems
cavaleri@ cesu.edu Thinking Tools
Central Connecticut State University
Dept of Management and Organization ca
atts Stanley cn 441 ‘Vance Real Ctr There are numerous systems thinking tools that have been
New Britain CT 06050 USA introduced in the system dynamics literature, yet little is known
about their efficacy in promoting performance improvements. A
study was done involved fifty undergraduate business students to
Vincenzo Filletti determine whether training in the use of systems thinking tools
caused any observable performance improvement in the use of
two different microworlds. The results of this exploratory
research suggest that users of systems thinking tools proceed up a
steep learning curve that causes a worse before better pattem of
behavior. As user levels of mastery rise and the frequency of use
of a given tool increases, the probability of experiencing
performance improvements also increases.
Michael Raphael
Christianne Cavaliere The Dynamics of Shifting Involvement:
Gita ay ais school Formalizing and Testing the Oscillation
lt niversii usiness Schoo: 7” HF
Faculty of Management between Private and Public Interests
Northampton Square
London EC1V OHB UK In ‘Shifting Involvements: Private Interest and Public Action’,
Hirshman outlines a theory of disappointment. In periods of
Erik R. Larsen strong consumption growth, people have high hopes for the new
exrlarsen@ city.ac.uk
City University Business School consumer durables they are suddenly able to afford, only to find
Faculty of Management these expectations rarely justified. The key variables the theory
Northampton Square
concentrates on is the understanding of formalisation of
expectations and how these expectations generate
London EC1V 0OHB UK
Alessandro Lomi disappointment. This ‘disappointment dynamic’ is the driving
alx@ economia.unibo.it force shifting the interest of societies towards private affairs, and
Uinversiy ot Bologna subsequent public interest. We show in this paper how
Piazza Scaravilli 1 Hirschman theory can be formalised in explicit feedback terms.
40126 Bologna Italy Furthermore we focus on representing the two levels of analysis
that Hirschman uses in his theory development. The first levels
represents the formulation of individual expectations, followed
by the collective consequences of the gap that exists between
expected and realised satisfaction. Using this model we explore
different possible behavioural patterns discussed by Hirschman.
Yao-Tsung Chen Yet Another Representation for System
ytchen@ mail.iis.sinica.edu.tw Dynamics Models and Its Advantages
Academia Sinica ;
Ne Us Seo lien eed The present paper relates to an artificial neural network (ANN)
Taipei City 115 Taiwan representation for a system dynamics model (SDM) and its
advantages. The similarities between SDMs and ANNs have
pee neti been noted, i.e., both of which store knowledge mainly in the
National Sun Yat-Sen University structure of a model, rather than in other components. By a
Dept of Information Management specially designed mapping scheme, it is shown that a given flow
70 Lien-hai Road
Kaohsiung 804 Taiwan diagram (FD) can be mapped to a corresponding model in the
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 57
r Index
Ivan Ciceri
iciceri@ team.it
Team sri
Salita delle Battistine 1
16125 Genova Italy
Mihaela Craioveanu
m.craioveanu@ team it
Team srl
Salita delle Battistine 1
16125 Genova Italy
Enrico Rovida
erovida@ team.it
Team sri
Salita delle Battistine 1
16125 Genova Italy
Stephen H. Conrad
shconra@ sandia.gov
Theresa Brown
tibrown@ sandia.gov
Walt Beyeler
webeyel@ sandia.gov
Sandia National Laboratories
Critical Inf Surety Dept 6515
1515 Eubank SE MS 0451
Albuquerque NM 87123 USA
representation of partial recurrent networks (PRNs) that will
correctly behave like the one it mimics. Because a PRN can be
trained with exemplar data, numeric propagation constraints can
be identified by extracting rules from a set of multivariate time
series of data by induction. In short, the neural representation for
SDMs provides a new dimension of studying SD, and some
traditionally hard problems in a FD might now be solved easier
in the new representation.
Interreg EU Programme: A New Assessment
Approach
The objective of the project is to evaluate the methodological
approach of system dynamics applied to the issues of European
Union’s programme Interreg III “Alcotra” (Latin Alps Cross-
border Co-operation between Italy and France). The work
focuses on the implementation of a model designed according to
the principles of system dynamics applied to the assessment of
Interreg. The specific objective of Interreg is to ensure that no
national border will be an obstacle to balanced development and
to the integration of the whole European area. It aims to promote
cross-border co-operation between authorities in adjacent areas
with the purpose of creating cross-border socio-economic centres
through the implementation of joined regional policies for
sustainable development. The aim is to employ this model as a
Decision Support System proper, which can be usefully
employed for ex ante analysis and subsequent outcome and
impact assessment of the Interreg programme.
A Dynamic Simulation Model of the Effects of
Interdependent Infrastructures on Emergency
Service Response
Models of telecommunications and emergency services were
added to an existing infrastructure interdependencies model. The
interdependency model tracks the flow of materials between
infrastructures and other services. Telecommunications was
represented in the model using bandwidth as a commodity that is
supplied and consumed. The resulting model was used to
evaluate altemative service restoration sequences for catastrophic
disruptions caused by the an earthquake, and to evaluate whether
or not service restoration priorities and sequences will
significantly alter the potential death toll, the extent of physical
damage, or utility service restoration times. The results of the
analysis can also be used to identify data needs and model
enhancements for improving model utility and portability.
58 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
David Cooke
cooked|@ shaw.ca
1008 Beverley Blvd SW
Calgary AB T2V 2C5 Canada
R. Geoffrey Coyle
geoff.coyle@ btinternet.com
8 Cleycourt Road
Shrivenham Swindon
Wiltshire SN6 8BN UK
Anthony M. Cresswell
toresswell@ ctg.albany.edu
Laura J. Black
Iblack@ mitedu
Donna Canestraro
dcanestraro@ ctg.albany.edu
Meghan Cook
mcook@ ctg.albany.edu
Theresa Pardo
tpardo@ ctg.albany.edu
Fiona Thompson
fihompson@ ctg.albany.edu
University at Albany
Center for Technology in Goverment
Albany NY 12222 USA
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
A System Dynamics Analysis of the Westray
Mine Disaster
This paper describes a system dynamics analysis of the Westray
mine disaster. The paper examines the causal structure of the
Westray system, including relationships that could have led to
conditions that caused the fatal explosion at the mine. The value
of simulation is its ability to capture a “mental model” of the
safety system, which can stimulate discussion among safety
experts as to the systemic causes of a disaster. By taking into
account feedback loops and non-linear relationships, which is not
possible with conventional root cause analysis, a dynamic model
of the system provides insights into the complex web of causes
that can lead to disaster and valuable lessons for organizational
learning.
A Possible Method for Assessing the Relative
Values of Alternative System Dynamics Models
Recent years have seen a debate within the system dynamics
community about whether diagrammatic models can provide
useful insights into problems involving feedback or whether one
must always build a simulation model. Since building and testing
a simulation requires much more effort than drawing a diagram
the question arises of the measurement of the value added by that
extra work or the value lost by forgoing it. However, there may
be an analytical project also involves issues such as cost,
teplication of detail and so forth and different models might
satisfy those requirements to a greater or lesser degree. The paper
therefore uses another management science methodology, the
Analytic Hierarchy Process, to propose a method of calculating
an index of the relative value for money of competing system
dynamics models. This may be a completely novel approach to
some aspects of system dynamics practice.
Evolution of a Dynamic Theory of
Collaboration: Modeling Intergovernmental
Use of Information Technology
Researchers from the Center for Technology in Government
(CTG) collaborated with New York’s Bureau of Housing
Services (BHS) to develop an information repository— Homeless
Information Management System (HIMS). This paper describes
the evolution of an ongoing research project related to HIMS that
focuses, using Group Model Building, on collaboration dynamics
in interorganizational settings. Modelers and researchers at the
University at Albany constructed formal models to explore the
dynamics observed in HIMS. Four system dynamics models have
59
Luis Luna
118287@ csc.albany.edu
Ignacio Martinez-Moyano
im7797@ albany.edu
David F. Andersen
david andersen@ albany.edu
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Rockefeller College
135 Westem Avenue Milne 101A
Albany NY 12222 USA
Rebecca Dale
becsdale@ aol.com
Tufts University
Ctr for Human Rights and Conf Res
Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
Medford MA 02155
Brian Peter McQuinn
ravensstudio@ hotmail.com
Intemational Rescue Committee
Kigali Rwanda
been created that have acted as boundary objects to push forward
theorizing about collaboration. The theory has evolved from
centering on project dynamics, to the interaction dynamics of
HIMS team members, to the dynamics generated by facilitation
mechanisms. The evolution of this theory can inform group-
model-building practice by presenting the possibility of changing
the output (models built) to improve the theory (phenomena
explanation) as an organized, and perhaps desirable, way of
conducting the process.
Addressing Intractable Conflict: The Potential
of System Dynamics Training as an
Intervention Tool: Case Study Rwanda
This paper explores how system analysis can aid in
understanding intractable conflicts and the emerging pattems of
genocide or violent civil war and will focus on how this
understanding can better equip actors to ameliorate tensions
without exacerbating or deepening the underlying conflicts.
People often cope in the intractable conflict system through their
denial of the systemic nature of it - for instance not seeing one’s
own role in perpetuating the conflict. As such introducing
systems thinking faces particular challenges because it has to
overcome these resistances, which are themselves part of the
social psychological dynamics of conflict. It is important to see
these resistances as loops within the system that reinforce each
other. The paper will explore what some of these resistances are
and how they are amplified/adapted in a situation of intractable
conflict such as Rwanda. The paper considers the particular
needs of the intractable conflict situation and how to adapt
systems and conflict resolution methodology.
60 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Raffaele D'Alessio
rdalessio@ unisa.it
University of Salemo
Dip di studi e ricerche aziendali
Via Ponte Don Melillo
84084 Fisciano SA Italy
Harald M. Dengel
hdengel@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Universitat Mannheim
Industrieseminar
Schloss $ 203
D-68131 Mannheim Germany
Peter M. Milling
pmilling@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Schloss
D-68131 Mannheim Germany
SCACCO: An Expert System for Financial
Accounting Teaching
From the Luca Paciolo Abaco era to modem ERP, accounting
teaching methods are not really changed at all. In fact, students
have to leam a group of accounting rules which are not always
organized in systematic way. The aim of the paper is to show the
main technical characteristics and the impact on students’
performances of an expert system, programmed by the author in
Visual Lansa, for formalizing and supporting the financial
accounting learning process. The expert system “Scacco®”
simulates, step by step, the systematic logic process every
student has to follow in order to solve: 1) bookkeeping and
accounting system problems; 2) annual report (balance sheets
and income statement) “building” problems. From the system
dynamics point of view, Scacco is a systematic model which, on
one hand, represents firm operations and, on the other hand, is
based on a “try and correct” feed-back mechanism.
Aspects of the Dynamics of Cooperation in a
Supply Chain Under Consideration of Trust
In this context cooperations are very important in all its forms
between market solutions and hierarchy. Due to the fact that
cooperations are not static but highly dynamic the relationships
concerning the decisions of the management of cooperations
should be well understood. So there is a need for a theoretically
dynamic based analysis of co-operations. Trust can be seen as the
crucial item for the constitution as well as the development of the
cooperation over time, which is a dynamic and extremely
complex phenomenon. The various links between the dynamic of
cooperations and trust within a supply chain as a whole makes
optimal decisions concerning the management of co-operations
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 61
Author Index
difficult as an aspect of supply chain management. The object of
this paper is to discuss the different possibilities for transactions
and co-ordinations for a company and to analyze cooperations
itself as a dynamic construct.
Vedat G. Diker The Dynamics of Internet Aided C ollaborative
Wremeeaeyon Work: The Case of Curriculum and Instruction
Bree cerries Sockely Material Development in the Field of System
Milne 300 135 Western Avenue Dynamics
Albany NY 12222 USA
Computer networks and in particular the Intemet are used to
transform work and provide new ways to collaborate. A new
phenomenon with respect to Internet aided collaborative work is
the emergence of large groups of people collaborating on a
voluntary or semi-voluntary basis, in order to develop and
improve a wide range of “information artifacts." This paper
introduces the findings of a study being conducted to examine
one such use of the Internet - to support asynchronous voluntary
collaborative work in curriculum and instructional material
development. Specifically, the study addresses how the use of
Intemet technologies might improve or impede collaborative and
distributed work through a set of reinforcing and limiting
dynamics underlying the voluntary collaborative work
phenomenon. Curriculum and instruction material development
in the field of system dynamics is chosen as the specific case
area.
Gokhan Dogan Long Term C onsequences of Genetically
dogan_gok@ yahoo.com Modified Crops in Agriculture
Bogazici University
Dept of Industrial Engineering
80815 Bebek There is evidence in published reports and scientific literature
Istanbul Turkey that GM crops can contaminate natural crops of the same family
. in the field or even weeds that are their distant relatives. We are
Ozge Karanfil considering the problem from an evolutionary point of view. Will
ozgekaranfil@ yahoo.com a ‘ :
Bogazici University GM crops exhibit a controllable dynamics, will they be
Dept of Industrial Engineering dominated by or will they dominate the ecosystem? Will GM
aha fete crops lead to new species? How will these new species affect
agriculture? These are the types of questions that we try to
answer in this paper. The scenario that we model is a situation
where a “gene jump” occurs from some experimental genetically
modified plot into a natural crop field. By a series of simulation
experiments, we investigate the possible long term consequences
of this gene jump. Our results indicate that in most situations,
either GC crop or GC weed would dominate the field in the long
term, which is an alarming result, justifying further research.
62 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Index
Richard G. Dudley
rgd6@ cornell.edu
Comell University
Dept of Natural Resources
206F Femow Hall
Ithaca NY 14853-3001 USA
©)
Serdar M. Durgun
msdurgun@ yahoo.com
Roketsan Missile Industry Inc
Oyak Sitesi 14
Giris D: 8 Cankaya
Ankara 06610 Turkey
Erol Sayin
sayin@ ie.metu.edu.tr
Middle East Technical University
Industrial Engineering Departmen
06531 Ankara Turkey
An Application of System Dynamics Modeling
to the Question of a Log Export Ban for
Indonesia, with Comments on Illegal Logging
System dynamics modeling allows us to examine various
scenarios within a complex system. We not only leam about the
response of the system to test inputs which could never be tested
in the real world, but we also learn to question our assumptions
about the system itself. This paper presents a preliminary system
dynamics investigation into the potential effects of a log export
ban on the Indonesian forest sector. As a preliminary model its
primary purpose is to help us visualize potential effects of a log
export ban rather than to predict actual outcomes. The model
provides relatively simplistic overviews of the wood processing
sector, demand - price feedback loops, forest standing stock and
log availability, capacity of the harvest sector, as well as export
demand, price and log exports. In spite of its apparent simplicity
the model examines important feedbacks that must be understood
if the effects of a log ban are to be properly examined.
A System Dynamics Approach for Technology
Improvement Policy Analysis: The Case o
Turkey
Technology has been one of the most important factors of the
economic and social growth and globally scaled competitiveness,
although not respected as a separate factor by traditional
economists until recently. It is now widely accepted that
technology improvement plays a very major role on national
growth. Technology has a number of interactive and conflicting
variables and parameters, which are not allowing an analysis
with quantitative tools only. Complex dynamic analysis seems to
be a proper tool to handle this sophistication. A system dynamics
model constructed for policy analysis in Turkey with respect to
technology improvement and comparison of various technology
improvement policies. Under the scope of this paper; the
elements effecting technology improvement are identified and
analyzed by qualitative/quantitative methods, the key relations
among these elements are identified, the influence model and the
system model are drawn and some scenario analysis are
performed for the comparison of possible technology
improvement policies.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 63
Author Index
Fredrik Elg
felg@ vanguard-bm.com
Vanguard Brand Management
20 Regent Street 5/F
London SW1Y 4PH UK
Philip C. Emmi
pcemmi@ geog.utah.edu
University of Utah
Urban Planning Program
260 S Central Campus Dr Rm 270
Salt Lake City UT 84112-9155 USA
Craig Forster
cforster@ mines.utah.edu
University of Utah
Geology and Geophysics
135 South 1460 East Rm 719
Salt Lake City UT 84112-0111 USA
Value-C reation Opportunities from Market
Discontinuities in the Pharmaceutical Industry:
Avoiding Value Destruction from Patent Expiry
in a Branded Therapy Market
Patent expiries within a therapy class pose an especially
complicated challenge for branded pharmaceuticals. This
requires the remaining branded players to justify their price
premium to maintain physicians’ usage as the generic drug
becomes available, or to reconsider their premium pricing
position by evaluating the value-creation of alternative strategies.
This paper outlines an approach for dealing constructively with
this challenge based on the coordinated application of market
intelligence and business strategy simulation modelling for the
development of robust value-retaining strategies. Insights
developed from recent client work suggest it is a reliable
methodology for evaluating patent expiry challenges in the
pharmaceutical industry, enabling significant value-creation. The
discussion furthermore suggests key benefits may be achieved
from applying strategy dynamics and system dynamics based
approaches, to derive strategic direction in market
discontinuities.
System Dynamics of Utah Welfare Reform
System dynamics techniques were applied to an analysis of Utah
welfare reform using STELLA system dynamics software
developed by High Performance Systems. The dynamic problem
posed by Utah welfare reform was discussed with a
comprehensive group of stakeholders. A clear problem
statement, a reference behavior, and an agreed-upon set of policy
options resulted in the identification of the important associated
problem variables, which were then translated into the language
of stocks and flows. Finally, critical cause-and-effect
64 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Jim Mills
opusig@ srv.net
311 North Placer Avenue
Idaho Falls ID 83402 USA
Hassan Farsijani
farsijani@ ikido.org
No 16 4th Street
Razan Jonuuby Street
Mirdamad Street
15478 Tehran Iran
Willard R. Fey
wrfey@ netscape.net
Ecocosm Dynamics Ltd
183 Cameo Court
Tucker GA 30084-7001 USA
relationships, again identified with stakeholder assistance, were
represented by interconnections and additional analytical detail
in the computer model. This paper will address the steps in the
model-construction and learning processes as they have been
developed and applied to date. Procedures employed to structure
modeler-stakeholder interaction will be detailed. Preliminary
results of the model, focusing on the sensitivity of the model to
various policy scenarios, will also be discussed.
Evolutionary Method for Design of Dynamic
Global World-Class Business for the World
Market Society
The concept of dynamic global world-class manufacturing
(WCM) has become the single most motivating theory in many
major industries, and reliability management is one of the basic
dynamic WCM strategies for the world market. WCM techniques
are a competitive strategy involving continuous improvement of
products, processes and services to improve quality, reduce costs,
increase productivity and increase total customer satisfaction.
Competitive manufacturing technique will be a major
management focus and trend in the 21st century. Global WCM
techniques are applied within the framework of all activities
concemed with manufacturing and therefore place emphasis of
the dynamic nature of this system which concems itself with
immediate goals and long term objectives. The main objective of
the paper is to propose a conceptual framework for dynamic
global WCM and present tools which are used. The paper uses a
case study to illustrate its findings based on a company
experiencing both rapid growth and increasing intemational
competition for achieving the world market.
Organizational Change from a New
Perspective: Pattern Feedback C ontrol in
Human Systems
The “dynamics of organizational change” may refer to either the
dynamic (time dependent) nature of the way structural changes
are made in a system’s feedback control structure and/or to the
nature of and the difficulties associated with the transitional time
pattems. Unfortunately, the system dynamics philosophy and
methodology have not been sufficiently developed in several
important areas that are necessary for consistent success in
achieving improved future real time pattems in real
organizations. Also, the nature of the organizational change
process, whether done by system dynamics analysts or managers,
as a qualitatively and quantitatively different kind of feedback
control from the Newtonian/Leibnizian calculus type of feedback
control used in system dynamics analysis and programmed into
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 65
Author Index
Davide Fiorello
fiorello@ trttrasportieterritorio.it
TRT Trasporti e Terzitorio Srl
Piazza Arcole 4
20143 Milano Italy
Angelo Martino
martino@ trttrasportieterritorio.it
TRT Trasporti e Terzitorio Srl
Piazza Arcole 4
20143 Milano Italy
Martina Rinaldi
trt@ trttrasportieterritorio.it
TRT Trasporti e Terzitorio Srl
Piazza Arcole 4
20143 Milano Italy
Diana Fisher
dmfisher@ jps.net
Wilson High School
1151 SW Vermont St
Portland OR 97219 USA
Ugo Fratesi
ugo.fratesi@ uni-bocconi.it
Universita Bocconi
via Gobbi
20136 Milano Italy
system dynamics simulation programs, has not been recognized.
This paper describes some of the gaps in the system dynamics
philosophy/methodology and the nature of the new kind of
feedback control, herein called Pattern Feedback Control (PFC).
The ASTRA-Italia Model for Strategic
Assessment of Transport Policies and
Investments
The paper presents the ASTRA-Italia model, a tool to analyse the
long-term effect of transport policies and investments. In the
ASTRA-lItalia system dynamics strategic transport model,
mobility prediction is the result of a complex interaction process
among four different components: transport, economy, land-use
and environment. The tool is then capable to illustrate the
reciprocal influences among transport and ecological and socio-
economic systems. The model simulation period covers thirty
years (2000-2030) and a reference scenario was constructed with
a projection of past and current trends of key variables. Policy
packages can be then tested and compared with such reference
case. To explore sustainable paths, the model produces a great
variety of quantified indicators including variations in: transport
performance (pass*km and tonnes*km), modal shift, vehicle fleet
development, traffic emissions, fuel consumption GDP, tax
revenues. Monetary values are also estimated for external costs.
Creating C ontent-Specific L essons
Incorporating System Dynamics Models
Lessons designed to incorporate system dynamics models
provide students another means to explore, absorb, and retain
core content in various subjects (specifically mathematics, social
science, biology, and physics) taught at the secondary level of
instruction. The type of lesson used depends upon various
factors, and should be expected to produce testable results
consistent with the purpose of the lesson. At this point lessons
seem to group into four categories.
Regional Economies and Innovative
Performance as the Source of C ompetitiveness
and Agglomeration: A System Dynamics
Representation
This article makes use of the system dynamics to argue that a
number of theories about the performance of territories,
developed in the past 20 years, are more complementary than
alternative; to demonstrate this, a model of local economy
coherent with these schools is designed and simulated.
According to these theories, the ability to produce and use
66 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Jun Futami
futami@ tonichi-kokusai-u.ac,jp
Higashi Nippon International
37 Suganezawa
Kamata Taira
Iwaki-City
Fukushima 970-8567 Japan
Hiroshi Kashiwazaki
h-kashiw@ nih.go jp
National Inst of Health and Nutrition
1-23-1 Toyama
Shinjuku-ku
Tokyo 162-8636 Japan
knowledge is at the centre of regional competitiveness in the
advanced world; the model shows the elements of the local
economic system and how they have to work coherently towards
the continuous process of innovation needed to be successful.
The model also shows that, due to the cumulative nature of this
innovation process, it is possible to obtain equilibria with
agglomeration, even in the presence of apparently very similar
territories. When this is the case, structural policies, aimed at
allowing lagging regions to better innovate and imitate extemal
knowledge, are appropriate.
Data Quality Control and Improvement of
Indirect Human Calorimeter by System
Dynamics A pproach
Using a system dynamics approach, a simulation model for data
quality control and improvement of human calorimeter using the
indirect calorimetry (IHC: indirect human calorimeter) was
constructed. Accurate measurements of human _ energy
expenditure are necessary in estimating appropriate energy
requirement. IHC can measure continuously energy expenditure
over 24 hours. 02 and CO2 analyzers and flow meter included in
the IHC are required to detect accurately the small changes of
gas concentration and ventilation rate. Data quality control of
each device is important for accurate measurement of energy
expenditure. Characteristics of the developed simulation model
are that 1) the measurement errors of each device are given
separately and artificially, and 2) dynamic change of energy
expenditure including those errors can be simulated. The
simulation model was applied to examine these characteristics
evaluating quantitatively the propagation of each device's error
at the IHC in the National Institute of Health and Nutrition,
Japan.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 67
r Index
Heiko Gebauer
heiko.gebauer@ unisg.ch
University of St Gallen
Insitute of Technology Management
Unterstrasse 22
CH-9000 St Gallen Switzerland
Lilia Gelvez
Igelvez@ bumanga.unab.edu.co
Universidad Autonoma de
Bucaramanga
Calle 147 Nro 22 - 189 Casa 85
Urbanizacion Quintas del Palmar
Bucaramanga Santander Colombia
Hugo Hernando Andrade Sosa
handrade@ uis.edu.co
Universidad Industrial de Santander
Esc Ingenieria de Sistemas e Inf
Cra 27 Calle 9
Bucaramanga Colombia
A Dynamic Theory of Service Management:
Implications for Managing Service
Improvements Avoiding the 'Service J ungle'
Despite the demonstrated benefits of industrial services in
driving competitive advantage, most companies found it
extremely difficult to manage the transition from product
manufacturer to service provider successfully. In this context, we
observed different phenomena. One phenomenon we term the
“service jungle.” The service jungle describes the phenomenon
that service programs have often led to declining business
because of increasing costs, which could not be recovered with
corresponding retums. That leads overall to decreasing margins
and weakens company’s competitive positions. Despite of the
high popularity of services and numerous service programs, just
a few companies have gone into what we call the “service
garden.” For the last four years, we have worked with a variety
of firms to understand the processes that lead to the “service
jungle.” This paper discusses the phenomenon on the basis of a
dynamic theory of service management and describes guidelines
to overcome it.
Microworlds for Supporting C hange Processes
and Making Organizational Decisions: A Case
Study with System Dynamics in the University
Accreditation Process
This paper presents the research processes about making a
methodological guidelines for the microworlds application as
supporting technological tools in the change and making
desicions process in a high education organization. This research
is guided by systems thinking, with the Peter Senge
organizational learning, and system dynamics, with the Jay
Forrester models for organizational management. As
methodological level, it is purposed the methodological
guidelines for the construction and the University microword
use. And as application level, it is built a microworld that
represents the University organizational change dynamics,
showing a system dynamics model with the relevant items for the
University accreditation, the change tendencies generated by the
virtual laboratory about possible strategies for improvement
accreditation conditions and the mental models that cohabit in
the University about its management.
68 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Index
Lilia Gelvez
Igelvez@ bumanga.unab.edu.co
Universidad Autonoma de
Bucaramanga
Calle 147 Nro 22 - 189 Casa 85
Urbanizacion Quintas del Palmar
Bucaramanga Santander Colombia
Mercedes Andrade
merandra@ pino.univalle.edu.co
Adolfo Hernandez
aherndez@ telesat.com.co
Jairo Osorio
Nubia Rodriguez
Peter J. Genta
peter.genta@ pa-consulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
Craig A. Stephens
craig.stephens@ pa-consulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
System Dynamics in Research Processes A bout
Sustainable Human Development of the
Colombian Agricultural Sector
The present paper intends to make up a development proposal
compressive approach of the horticultural sector. It integrate
sdifferent research efforts and technological interventions by
CORPOICA, in the frame of a long-time program which
promotes the sustainability of this sector. The approach is built
on system dynamics, attempting a synthesis with the sustainable
human development conception and inquiring the system
dynamics models' use in agricultural planning and the
organizational learning role in the social web built. In the frame
of sustainability, alimentary security becomes more important as
a research subject, technological intervention and social strategy.
In the context of our country, it is support in the agriculture,
beginning with a local alimentary security proposal and actually
as rural space rebuilt alternative, employment generation space
and competitive strategy. In this context, social capital is seen as
an strategy for organizational learning, in other words,
communitarian learning.
Managing Dynamics in the Global Oil and Gas
Industry: Past Applications and Emerging
Trends
The global oil and gas industry has a long history of system
dynamics applications in three main areas: 1) market dynamics,
the interactive movements of capacity, supply, demand, and
prices; 2) business dynamics, the performance-driving
interactions of corporations and their business units with
suppliers, customers, competitors and other stakeholder groups;
and 3) project dynamics, the interactions driving cost and
schedule performance on the complex projects that develop new
reserves and production/distribution capacity. System dynamics
is in a unique position to contribute to more systematic
management that will drive faster and more consistent growth of
shareholder value. The future will see a blending of market,
business and project dynamics, reflected in models that integrate
the commoditized marketplace and asset portfolio management.
These models will be the analysis engines for management
systems that are fully integrated into the strategy-forming,
planning and decision-making processes of the major oil and gas
companies.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 69
Author Index
Nicholas C. G eorgantzas
georgantzas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University at Lincoln Center
113 W 60th St
Suite LL 617-D
New York NY 10023-7471 USA
Nicholas C. G eorgantzas
georgantzas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University at Lincoln Center
113 W 60th St
Suite LL 617-D
New York NY 10023-7471 USA
Nicholas C. G eorgantzas
georgantzas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University at Lincoln Center
113 W 60th St
Suite LL 617-D
New York NY 10023-7471 USA
Play with the Ants to Understand CASOS
The dynamics complex, adaptive, self-organizing systems
(CASOS) produce often contradict the second law of
thermodynamics. This paradox persists unless coupled to a
system's macro level, where self-organizing agents act, is a micro
level, where random processes increase entropy, i.e. uncertainty.
The system's micro level permits overall system entropy to
increase while sequestering its increase at the macro level, where
autopoiesis, self-organization, occurs. Parunak & Brueckner
(2001) built an ant pheromone-driven CASOS simulation and
measured Shannon's entropy at the macro and micro levels,
showing an entropy-based view of autopoiesis. This essay
presents a system dynamics model that replicates parts of their
results and examines self-organization causally, as opposed to
measuring coincidental macro- and micro-level entropy. Despite
its present inability to tag undifferentiated agents’ individual
attributes, the system dynamics method and software can help
agent-system researchers understand how CASOS' circular or
feedback-loop relations produce nonlinear dynamics
spontaneously out of their local interactions.
ISDC Presentations that Captivate Mind and
Soul
Held altemately in North America and Europe, with occasional
appearances in Asia and the Pacific Rim, our annual Intemational
System Dynamics Conference (ISDC) introduces newcomers to
the field, keeps practitioners aware of current developments and
presents unique networking opportunities. We even use the
worldwide web to disseminate conference information and
papers. Are you presenting at our next ISDC? Will your talk
captivate the mind and soul of our diverse audience? Will it
appeal to the intrinsic motives of both newcomers and our field's
experts? Talking about what you do is exciting, fun and good
publicity. Imagine your success once you focus on the action
loop at the heart of great presentations: purpose, plan, prepare,
present and probe. Its purpose is to help us all become great
speakers. Although initial results are not always dramatic, great
talks bring recognition, eventual business and add to public
relations. Remember: to captivate your audience, you must
capture it first.
Computing Legal Damages in High-Profile
Patent Infringement
When estimating patent damages, the fundamental task is to
construct a “but-for’ model that simulates, as closely as possible,
70 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
r Index
Maria Bavea
Lisa Iacona
Joseph Perekupka
Nicholas Screnci
Andry Argyrides
Nicholas C. G eorgantzas
georgantzas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University at Lincoln Center
113 W 60th St
Suite LL 617-D
New York NY 10023-7471 USA
Kengo Sasai
Philip Schrombgens
Karl Richtenburg
Hirofumi Uno
Mila Getmansky
mgetman@ mitedu
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-358
Cambridge MA 02139 USA
Jannette Papastaikoudi
jpapa@ mitedu
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street Bld E52 Rm 442
Cambridge MA 02139 USA
the marketplace absent infringement. Calculation of damages is
premised upon four principles: 1) A patent's value derives largely
from the market power it confers to the patent owner; 2) When
the price of a good increases, consumption of the good declines,
and vice versa; 3) Only costs caused by extra sales should be
charged against extra sales revenues; 4) Both the market power
flowing from the patent and the relative bargaining power of the
negotiators influence the outcome of royalty negotiations. This
essay's system dynamics model simulates the BuSpar® market,
absent infringement. The modeling process accounts for: the
market power that the BuSpar® patent confers to Bristol-Myers
Squibb Co.; the demand and price relation in the BuSpar®
market; the cost of regaining lost sales using incremental costing;
and the difference between royalty and lost profit damages.
Mitsubishi Rayon's Penetration Strategy,
Balance and Profitability
System dynamics modeling for learning helps Mitsubishi Rayon
compete by creating new knowledge about the system structure
lurking behind its strategic situation. Creating new knowledge
often requires capturing unknown and unknowable aspects of
system structure that may be neither easy to observe nor easy to
measure. The system dynamics model this essay presents reveals
a lot about this Japanese giant conglomerate's strategy design and
implementation tactics. The model shows a tiny fragment of
Mitsubishi Rayon's gigantic effort to re-perceive itself. The firm
wants to see its Keiretsu infrastructure transform into an agile
virtual enterprise network (VEN) of active agents that collaborate
to achieve their transnational business goals. By becoming a
VEN, Mitsubishi Rayon is poised to bring the necessary people
and production processes together to form autopoietic, i.e. self-
organizing, customer-centric value chains in the specialty
chemicals industry.
Extrapolating Expectations: An Explanation
for Excess Volatility and Overreaction
In this paper, we try to explain excess market volatility by means
of momentum. Price setting mechanisms are introduced based on
demand/supply balance as well as based on mechanical trading
strategies of investors. Two types of investors are introduced:
fundamental investors who believe that the marketed assets have
some intrinsic value and make their trades based on the relative
value of the current price relative to that intrinsic value; and
momentum traders, who extrapolate past stock performance into
the future and act accordingly by buying when the stock price
rises and by selling when the price falls. An additional feature of
the proposed model is that it can actually explain post eamings
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 71
or Index
David F. Gillespie
davidg@ gwbmail.wustl.edu
Washington University
GW Brown School of Social Work
1 Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
St Louis MO 63130 USA
Sungsook Cho
38¢2@ gwbmail.wustl.edu
Washington University
GW Brown School of Social Work
1 Brookings Drive Campus Box 1196
St Louis MO 63130 USA
Karen J. Robards
robards@ augsburg.edu
Augsburg College
2211 Riverside Avenue
C Box 201
Minneapolis MN 55454 USA
Gianfranco Giulioni
giulioni@ dea.unian it
Universita di Ancona
Dipartmento de Economia
Piazzale Martelli 8
60121 Ancona Italy
Domenico Delli Gatti
delliga@ mi.unicatt.it
Catholic University of Milan
Institute of Economic Theory
Largo Gemelli 1
20123 Milan Italy
Mauro Gallegati
gallegati@ dea.unian.it
Universita di Ancona
Dipartimento di Economia
Piazzale Martelli 8
60121 Ancona Italy
announcement drift. The presence of momentum traders pushes
the stock price further up (down) in the presence of good (bad)
news, hence leading to the actual realization of their extrapolated
expectations.
Acceptable Risk and Mitigation Options:
Dynamic Structure of Building Safety
This paper reports the results of a study designed to understand
and facilitate disaster mitigation in communities characterized by
low frequency/high magnitude earthquakes. A system dynamics
model describes the distribution of building safety over time and
the dynamic structure governing the decision-making that created
the current distribution of building safety in a small town located
near the New Madrid Fault Zone and therefore at significant
earthquake risk. Data from this town is used to establish a 20-
year baseline. Simulations are min over a 40-year period to
examine the consequences of different building policies and the
effects of a magnitude 7.0-earthquake in the year 2002.
Financial Fragility, Heterogenous A gents'
Interaction, and Aggregate Dynamics
This paper analyzes the emergence of economic fluctuations
using a dynamic model where the economy is populated by
heterogeneous interacting agents. We stress the fact that in such a
setting it is possible to observe a lack of proportionality between
causes and effects of business fluctuations. Our main point is that
the strength of the propagation mechanism changes in time and
grat consequences of small shocks are possible when propagation
is strong. The main cause for this is a change in the average
financial condition of firms. High financial fragility implies a
worsening of credit conditions and a high probability of default
for the firm. The main focus of the paper is twofold: 1) modeling
the bank behavior in order to derive endogenously the credit
market equilibrium and 2) stressing the importance of entry and
exit processes of firms on the market to understand the business
cycle,
72 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Index
Paulo Goncalves
paulog@ mit.edu
MIT
System Dynamics Group
30 Wadsworth Street E53-358A
Cambridge MA 02139 USA
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ hia.no
Agder University College
Dept of Information & Com Tech
Groosveien 36
N-4876 Grimstad Norway
When Do Minor Shortages Inflate to Great
Bubbles?
When demand exceeds supply, retailers hedge against shortages
by placing multiple orders with multiple suppliers. This artificial
growth in orders can severely affect suppliers, creating excess
capacity, excess inventory, low capacity utilization, financial and
reputation losses. This paper contributes to the understanding of
order amplification caused by shortages, by providing a
comprehensive causal map of the supplier-retailer relationships
and a formal mathematical model of a subset of relationships. It
provides closed form solutions to the dynamics of supplier
backlogs when supplier capacity is fixed and simulation analysis
when it is flexible. Parameter sensitivity provides a deeper
understanding of long-term impacts and suggests emphasis for
solution policies. For instance, the ability to quickly build
capacity can effectively reduce the bubble size. Finally, the time
it takes retailers to perceive supplier’s delivery delay is an
important leverage in controlling retailers’ inflationary ordering.
In particular, longer retailers’ perception delays contribute to
system stability.
Modeling Erosion of Security and Safety
Awareness
We develop a simple generic model for the erosion of safety or
security standards based on the behavioral regulation theory of
instrumental conditioning and on risk misperception. We show
that the model is able to render expected reference behavior. To
counteract the erosion of safety and security we propose policies
in accordance with the behavioral regulation theory of
instrumental conditioning mediated by risk perception, viz.
educational programs to improve risk perception and ‘social
proof’. For details about the simulation model, cf. the parallel
paper. There we model the erosion of safe sex practices for
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 73
Author Index
Jose J. Gonzalez
jose,j.gonzalez@ hia.no
Agder University College
Dept of Information & Com Tech
Groosveien 36
N-4876 Grimstad Norway
Alan K. Graham
alan.graham@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
Jonathan Moore
jonathan.moore@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
Carol Y. Choi
carol.choi@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
people at risk of contracting HIV infection through frequent
change of sex partners in a high-risk group. The parallel paper
contains also a section on issues on safety and security.
Modeling the Erosion of Safe Sex Practices
As a starting hypothesis, we argue that the erosion of safe sex
practices for people having frequent change of sexual partner
might be explained in terms of two mechanisms: instrumental
conditioning through “reward” (greater sexual pleasure)
following unprotected sex and misperception of the risk to
become infected by HIV due to low infectivity of HIV and long
delays (long latency and incubation period). A causal-loop
diagram is developed and discussed. However, the formulation of
a stock-and-flow model requires a detailed discussion of the
modem theory of instrumental conditioning (the behavioral
regulation approach). Surprisingly, the behavioral regulation
approach suggests as actual mechanism responsible for erosion
of safe sex practices the retum to the “behavioral bliss point”
(zero condom use) due to a gradually declining perception of
risk. Such misperception of risk impacts on the instrumental
contingency (acceptance of safe sex). We propose counteracting
policies in accordance with the behavioral regulation theory of
instrumental conditioning mediated by risk perception.
How Robust Are Conclusions from a Complex
Calibrated Model, Really?: A Project
Management Model Benchmark Using Fit-
Constrained Monte Carlo Analysis
System dynamics-based simulation models are useful for
analyzing complex systems characterized by large parameter
spaces and pervasive nonlinearity. Unfortunately, these
characteristics also make confidence intervals for model
outcomes difficult to assess. Standard Monte Carlo testing with a
priori realistic parameter variations produces simulated behavior
that is a posteriori improbable, rendering simple Monte Carlo
approaches inappropriate for establishing confidence intervals.
This paper gives a case study of a model used to forecast
completion of design and construction of a large defense
program, and proposes a more correct Monte Carlo process, fit-
constrained Monte Carlo analysis. A confidence interval for
outcome is computed, using Monte Carlo trials and discarding
combinations that do not achieve an acceptable fit of simulated
behavior to historical data) The experiment confirmed the
intuitive view that a well-formulated closed loop model
calibrated against sparse but widespread data and an appropriate
statistical fit criterion can create tight confidence intervals on
some model outcomes.
74 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
r Index
Alan K. Graham
alan.graham@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
Andreas Grofler
agroe@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss
D-68131 Mannheim Germany
Jorn-Henrik Thun
thun@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
University of Mannheim
Industrieseminar Schloss
D-68131 Mannheim Germany
Bjorn Grossmann
b@ grossman.de
University of Hamburg
Dept of Mathematics
Methfesselstrasse 102
D-20255 Hamburg Germany
On Positioning System Dynamics as an Applied
Science of Strategy Or: SD Is Scientific. We
Haven't Said So Explicitly, and We Should
The field of System Dynamics (SD) and strategy practitioners
share a common aspiration: to understand and control the
success and failure of companies through appropriately rigorous
methods. SD practitioners know that it has all the elements of
proper scientific method, but gen-erally do not teach or explain
the method with that framework and vocabulary. Outside the
field, SD is generally perceived as lacking rigor. Positioning
System Dynamics as an applied science of strategy would
mitigate several of the difficulties that SD practitioners face, and
create bene-fits both personal and societal. This repositioning
could be accomplished through 1) teaching and publishing in the
explicit language of iterative hypothesis testing and explicit
choice of testing criteria, 2) teaching iteration and testing as the
fundamental method, with knowledge of formulation and
dynamics as refinements, rather than vice-versa, and 3) explicitly
claiming a scientific approach to strategy as an area of personal
or organizational competence.
Policies Influencing the Diffusion of Instant
Messaging
Many information and communication products show
characteristics that are called network effects or positive demand
externalities, i.e. their utility for users depends on how many
other people also use the product. The paper investigates the
diffusion of such products. Instant messaging is taken as an
example. Strategic options of the players in the instant messaging
market are presented and analyzed on the basis of a system
dynamics model.
Policy Optimization in Dynamic Models with
Genetic Algorithms
Dynamic models are often built in order to evaluate the influence
of policies on a complex system. Results can help organizations
or politicians take appropriate decisions. In the model, those
decisions are represented by a set of parameters, referred to as
“policy parameters”. With the help of an objective function, it is
possible to determine whether chosen values of the policy
parameters influence the model’s outcome favorably or
unfavorably. Finding optimal values for policy parameters is
very difficult, if several policies are combined and the best set of
values needs to be found. I have developed a tool that transforms
Stella models to C+tcode and with the help of a genetic
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 75
Author Index
Wolf Dieter Grossmann
grossmann@ gkss.de
GKSS Research Centre
Max-Planck-Strasse
21502 Geesthacht Germany
Peter B. Grubenmann
pgecon@ asianust.ac.th
Asian University of Science and Tech
89 Route 331 (KM 21)
Bang Lamung Chonburi 20260
Thailand
Carolus Griitters
c.grutters@ jur.kun.nl
University of Nijmegen
Law and IT Faculty of Law
P.O Box 9049
Nijmegen 6500 KK The Netherlands
algorithm finds a set of values for policy parameters for which a
given objective function reaches a global optimum. The results
allow to gain very thorough knowledge of the problem treated in
the model.
Dynamics of the Information Society
A new economy and new lifestyles emerge which are based on
richness in information and extensive use of computer networks,
in particular the Intemet. This development offers new
opportunities for regional wealth, for ecological sustainability
and it brings new jobs. A dynamic systems model was built to
allow a thorough analysis of this situation and its development.
This model allows to test policies on how to use these
opportunities to decrease risks and to avoid conflicts. The model
is a result of several large research projects which included
consulting and collaboration with regional planning. The model
is now applied on a wider scale to develop and help in
implementation of innovation policies.
Economic Effects of Decentralization of
Government with People Empowerment: An
International C omparison of Four Asian and
European Rural Localities
Devolution of political-administrative powers to localities and
direct democratic people empowerment are thought to create a
more conducive environment for local economic development.
To investigate this, a policy and planning simulation model was
developed. The study compares two decentralizing Asian
localities with two politico-administratively decentralized
European localities. The lack of hard data on the local level
suggested the use of System Dynamics as analysis and
simulation methodology. Social Network Analysis was used to
develop the systems’ power structure. Time simulations of people
empowerment policy changes revealed that these matter and that
fully empowered villagers are beneficial for the development of a
locality.
Legal Dynamics
One of the areas barely investigated by system dynamicists is the
law. Although this may seem understandable, there are intriguing
dynamic aspects in legal systems and particularly in the field of
the administration of justice. In order to investigate whether a
legal procedure could be modelled from a system dynamics
perspective and to see whether this could lead to deeper insights
into the mechanisms beyond the existing method of ‘trial and
error’, the Dutch asylum procedure over the period 1980-2002
76 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
r Index
Burak Gineralp
guneralp@ uiuc.edu
Univ of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
1102 S Goodwin Avenue
W-515 Tumer Hall
Urbana IL 61801 USA
Umut Gir
ugur@ dpt.gov.tr
State Planning Organization - Turkey
Devlet Planlama Mustesarligi
Necatibey cad EMSAGM no:108
06100 Ankara Turkey
Sibel Giiven
maktav@ ie.metu.edu.tr
Middle East Technical University
Dept of Industrial Engineering
Inonu Bulvari
06531 Ankara Turkey
was modelled. This paper describes the results of this study
revealing unprecedented feedback loops implying the need for
further research of the internal effects of legal procedures i.e. the
need for a system dynamic approach of the law, or stated
otherwise, the existence of a new approach: legal dynamics.
The Dynamic Spatial Simulation Modeling of
the Effects of Land Use Change on Avian
Species
As part of the LEAM project, a comprehensive urban
development model of Kane County, Illinois was constructed.
The spatial dynamic simulation model presented in this paper is
an integral part of the LEAM model and serves as a means to
evaluate the effects of urban sprawl on two bird species selected
as indicators for their ecosystems: Eastern meadowlark (Sturnella
magna) for the grassland, and ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapillus) for
forest ecosystems. The model was integrated with a hypothetical
land use map through a spatial analysis software, Spatial
Modelling Environment (SME), and tested for behavioural
validity. The spatial modelling studies are still novel approaches
and their success partly depends on availability of relevant and
sufficient data. There is still much to improve in this field and it
is realistic to expect great contributions to the scientific and
practical theory from spatial dynamic modelling in the future.
Assessment of Possible Effective Strategies in
the Transition Process to a Knowledge-Based
Economy: The Case of Turkey
The aim of this study is to introduce a framework which can be
used for the assessment of possible strategies in the transition to
a knowledge-based economy (KBE). For this purpose, a mixed
integer programming (MIP) model is developed to determine the
required levels of human resources and information and
communications technology (ICT) investments for given levels
of government R&D investment of the country shown to be the
most significant determinant of the phenomenon. The model is
solved for the case of Turkey. The results indicate that: (i)
government R&D in Turkey should increase to considerable
levels in order to trigger the transition to a KBE and (ii)
transformation towards a KBE with an inefficient innovation
system may require considerable amounts of additional resources
compared to transformation with a more efficient system. The
results illustrate that any improvement in the innovation system
for Turkey may lead to considerable savings from the required
human resources and ICT investments given same levels of R&D
investment.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 77
Author Index
Caglar Giiven
cguven@ ie.metu.edu. tr
Middle East Technical University
Dept of Industrial Engineering
Inonu Bulvari, Ankara 06531 Turkey
Cem Tangil
ctangil@ aundeteknik.com
AundeTeknik AS
Istiklal Cd Kafoglu Ap 52/1
16600 Gemlik Bursa Turkey
Antonio Guzman-Nacoud
aguaman@ campus.sip.itesm.mx
Monterrey Institute of Technology
Mariano Jimenez 415
Col Alamitos CP 78280
San Luis Potosi SLP Mexico
Hordur V. Haraldsson
hordur.haraldsson@ chemeng.|th.se
Harald Sverdrup
harald.sverdrup@ chemeng.lth.se
Salim Belyazid
salim.belyazid@ chemeng.lth.se
Lund University
Dept of Chemical Eng., Box 124
Mats G. Svensson
mats.svensson@ chemeng.lth.se
Lund University
Environmental Science Center
S-22100 Lund Sweden
Christer Kalen
christer.kalen@ planteco.lu.se
Lund University
Department of Ecology
Deniz Koca
deniz.koca@ natgeo.lu.se
Lund University
Dept of Physical Geography
223 62 Lund Sweden
Multi-Period Portfolio Assessment
This study explores the prospects of implementing a multi-period
mathematical portfolio planning model for security trading in the
Istanbul Stock Exchange, and compares the performance of
different models for this purpose.
How to Gain C ompetitiveness in a Mexican
Small-Sized Company: A Systemic Approach
The recent quality tendencies and movements have meant that
many different models and methodologies have emerged in order
to get more market competitiveness for companies. Total Quality
Management (TQM) is, undoubtedly, one of them. However,
TQM presents some adaptation problems due to Mexico's
culture. An adequate use of the methodology and its model
conceptualization for small and medium-sized industry seems to
be the central problem to address in this culture conflict, if we
consider that this kind of industry is a productive support for
Mexico. The purpose of this paper is twofold. The first is to show
how this “problematique” should be addressed through a
methodology with a systemic perspective. The second purpose is
to go beyond the utilization of this methodology, showing some
results from an application in a small-sized company in the
center region of Mexico.
The Coming Water Shortage in the J ordan
River Basin: Finding Objectivity in a
Subjective Problem
Water distribution and availability in the Jordan region were
studied. Self-sufficiency in water availability within the region is
determined by the minimum amount of water used per person
that is renewable. The objectives of the study were to identify the
causes of water shortages and alternative use of water to prolong
future supplies. According to our analysis, Israel and Jordan will
ovetutilise their water source by a factor of 2 and Palestine by a
factor of 1, by the year 2030. Water recycling has a potential in
all the countries. The agricultural sector makes up the bulk of the
water use (73-85%). Different water-saving techniques and
altemative crop production can drastically reduce water use.
Diverting away from agriculture and alternatively developing the
industry sector would alleviate the immediate water shortages but
will make the region dependent on the global grain market.
78 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Mohamed Haroon
haroon@ ie-eg.com
6 El-Marwa Street
Dokki Guiza Egypt
Khaled Wahba
khaled.wahba@ riti.org
Cairo University
42 El-Higaz Street Heliopolis
Cairo 11223 Egypt
Tim Haslett
thaslett@ bigpond.net.au
Monash University
Department of Management
900 Dandenong Road
Caulfield East Victoria 3145 Australia
Rod Sarah
rodsarah@ netspace.net.au
Monyx Pty Ltd
16 Miles Street
Mulgrave 3170 Victoria Australia
Naglaa Hassan Zaky
naglaa_h@ yahoo.com
11 Kolyate El-Tarbiah
El-Raydiah St
El Haram Giza Egypt
Zainab Mohamed Mahmoud
zaynabm@ hotmail.com
14 Abou Rabia St
Omrania Gharbia
El Haram Giza Egypt
A Generic Tool Based on a System Dynamics
Approach to Assess SME Business Stability and
Help Designing Business Tactics and Action
Plans within Transient, Non-Stationary
Conditions
SME’s play an important role in developing countries economy
leveraging. The SME’s are subjected to non-stationary conditions
affecting business stability. These conditions arise due to
economic environment transition or during business start-up
phase. The problem is that business-monitoring tools such as the
balanced scorecards are long term oriented and strategically
focused. The SMEs’ response in the short term during non-
stationary conditions may cause serious damaging results or even
lead to total business collapse. The objective is to develop a tool
to monitor the SMEs’ business short-term transient response to
non-stationary conditions. Also to help developing business
tactics and action plans. The chosen platform is a system
dynamics model to provide simulation ability under different
scenarios. The model is formulated in a generic way with the
ability to define business attributes through set of model
variables. The model is built using five basic sub-models:
financial, human resources, operational, risk and environmental.
Mapping and Modeling in the Australian
Taxation Office: A Case Study
This paper is a case study of a major System Dynamics (SD)
intervention in the Australian Tax Office (ATO). The
intervention lasted two years and involved an extensive roll out
of SD tools and the methodology. The context for the paper is the
Action Research work based at Monash University and is a
reflection on the organisational and political structures that are
necessary to sustain a large-scale SD intervention in a large
bureaucracy.
IT Future in Egypt: Model of Workforce
Demand and Suppy in the IT Field
Is the IT market demand equal to the increase in IT workforce
supply in Egypt? A very important factor we should take in
consideration is how much the quality of the trainees meets the
intemational quality of IT to reach the goal of exporting and
make a leap in the IT industry. So it’s important for us to have an
overall and accurate understanding of the effects of excess
training programs relative to the projects available in the IT
market in Egypt. System dynamics is considered a methodology
that bridges the gap between understanding structures and
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 79
Author Index
Mark Heffernan
mheffernan@ epi.com.au
International System Dynamics Pty Ltd
390 Eastern Valley Way 20B
East Roseville NSW 2069 Australia
Phillip Wing (S)
Geoff McDonnell
gmcdonne@ bigpond.netau
Adaptive Care Systems Pty Ltd
382 Bronte Road
Bronte NSW 2024 Australia
Hans Hennekam
251090@ student.fbk.eur.nl
Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Civil Engineering
PO Box 5048
2600 GA Delft The Netherlands
Frank Sanders
f£m.sanders@ citg.tudelft.nl
Delft University of Technology
Faculty of Civil Engineering
PO Box 5048
2600 GA Delft The Netherlands
©)
understanding behavior. System dynamics enable most people to
describe and analyze a system, based on an intuitive system
understanding, and more to use system dynamics promotes our
intuitive system understanding. The purpose of our model is to
use system dynamics to build a simulation model that will help
us to understand the IT market situation in Egypt in the next few
years according to the market demand and supply.
Business Transformation Success Dynamics:
It's the Communication
A study of Business Transformation (BT) Success involving
fifteen corporations framed business transformation as a type of
large-scale strategic renewal implemented via a diffusion of
innovation process within a socially constructed organisational
environment. Based on the qualitative and quantitative analysis
of the communication pattems examined in this study, the
complex relationships were abstracted and reflected in an
adapted diffusion of innovation dynamic model that has
communication effectiveness as a key influencing variable. The
key findings of the communications network analysis (CNA)
showed that success was correlated with average path length,
opinion leadership and the presence of weak ties, with a
saturation effect on communication after a certain network
density is reached (referred to in CNA literature as percolation
effect). Simulation runs replicating observed BT Success Index
measures showed that with one variable missing the successful
implementation is delayed, two variables missing results in
failure and that a saturation point for communication exists.
Making C omplex Network Analysis in System
Dynamics
As urban models in system dynamics are extremely complex if
an area is subdivided in many dynamic and interacting areas,
managing complexity of the urban network interactions is
essential. A recently developed interregional model of The
Netherlands illustrates the implementation of the spatial
dimension in urban dynamics. The model describes 40 self-
organizing urban areas and distribution of migrants, firms and
commuting between 40 regions simultaneously. Developments in
regional labor markets, housing markets and land-use can be
explained by internal as well as by external regional conditions.
The applied approach gives many opportunities to make large
disaggregated models in system dynamics. Spatial or sectional
interactions (network models) can be modeled while model
structures remain manageable. In general, as vector-based and
matrix-based calculations can be implemented in system
80 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Stefanie Hillen
hillen@ mail.uni-mainz.de
University of Mainz
Department of Vocational Training
and Econic Education
Jakob-Welder-Weg 9
D-55099 Mainz Germany
Gary B. Hirsch
gbhirsch@ aol.com
Creator of Leaming Environments
Seven Highgate Road
Wayland MA 01778 USA
dynamics easily, many (existing) static models can be applied
dynamically. Hence, the usefulness of system dynamics in
modeling complex systems broadly is enlarged.
Active Modeling and Simulation in Learning
Environments C oncerning Business Subject
Matters
How can the quality of the leaming process be evaluated?
Without reference to a scientific (leaming) theory it is not
possible to develop an appropriate diagnostic approach. The
proposal is that the synopsis of similar concepts could foster the
development of a platform for a (leaming-) theory based
construction for sd-based learning environments and their
evaluation. The process of synopsis can lead to systematic
procedures for identifying misconceptions between the different
research fields, providing an overview of concepts which help to
cope with complexity, elaborating possible support by
educational means, grounding approaches to synergetic effects,
prevent neglect of alternative perspectives, and help develop
appropriate diagnostic instruments based on _ theoretical
background. This final item should prevent the eclectic selection
of measurement tools for active modelling in business subject
matters, depending altematively on the ‘best fit’ for the designed
experiment. It could then be demonstrated which criteria support
this type of measurement.
Using Dynamic Simulation to Teach Physics in a
Real-World Context
Dynamic simulation has great potential as a tool for teaching
physics and science in general. This paper describes a family of
simulators that have been developed to teach several topics in
physics including circular motion, collisions, energy storage, and
heat flow. These simulators provide students with laboratories
for experimenting with the phenomena in the context of real-
world situations such as driving, home energy conservation, and
sports. The simulators were designed to serve as companions to
a curriculum called Active Physics (AP) which was created with
NSF support to make the subject more appealing and
understandable to the majority of high school students who
otherwise do not study physics. The paper contrasts dynamic
simulation and traditional approaches to teaching physics. It also
discusses the value of simulators with "user-friendly" interfaces
compared to using system dynamics models alone. The paper
describes how each phenomenon was modeled and presents
interfaces for each simulator.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 81
Author Index
Jack B. Homer
jack@ homerconsulting.com
Homer Consulting
36 Covington Lane
Voorhees NJ 08043 USA
Bobby Milstein
bmilstein@ cdc.gov
Ctrs for Disease Control & Prevention
360 Brooks Avenue NE
Atlanta GA 30307 USA
Séverine Hong-Minh
severine.hong-minh@ wintershall.de
Wintershall AG
Friedrich-Ebert Str 160
34119 Kassel Germany
Séverine Hong-Minh
severine.hong-minh@ wintershall.de
Wintershall AG
Friedrich-Ebert Str 160
34119 Kassel Germany
Communities with Multiple A fflictions: A
System Dynamics A pproach to the Study and
Prevention of Syndemics
The term syndemic was coined by the medical anthropologist
Merrill Singer to describe the mutually reinforcing nature of
health-related problems such as substance abuse, violence, and
AIDS, that disproportionately impact inner city neighborhoods
burdened by economic hardship, deteriorated infrastructure,
social disruption, malnutrition, and inadequate health care. Public
health scholars agree that effective responses to the intertwined
afflictions of the urban poor require comprehensive, system-wide
interventions. To strengthen the scientific foundation for such
initiatives, the CDC is supporting research on syndemics,
including the use of system dynamics modeling to investigate
how and why syndemics develop, and to evaluate altemative
approaches to intervention for particular community contexts. At
present, a generic (not yet case-specific) model has been
developed based on the literature and expert observations. We
present the model and some results, and outline plans for
carrying the work forward.
Solutions to Improve Performance in the UK
House Building Supply Chain: The Use of A
System Dynamics Model
The private housebuilding industry in the UK is plagued with
problems. In order to assess the potential benefits of supply chain
management principles for the housebuilding industry, a generic
model has been developed. This model, based on Forrester
production and distribution systems and an Inventory and Order
Based Production Control System, takes into consideration
developers, merchants and manufacturers. The model has been
used in four scenarios for the low-value fit-out supply chain,
which focuses on products such as doors, lintels, skirting boards,
etc. The simulation results show that using one national merchant
instead of several regional merchants reduces demand
amplification and total supply chain inventory costs. Information
enrichment also improves performance, while the reduction of
manufacturing lead-times has a detrimental effect on total supply
chain inventory costs. It is concluded that private housebuilding
can improve its performance by implementing supply chain
management principles.
A System Dynamics Model for the UK Private
House Building Supply Chain
This paper presents a system dynamics model for the private
82 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Index
Jiirgen Strohhecker
strohhecker@ hfb.de
Business School for Banking &
Finance
Sonnemannstrasse 9-11
D-60314 Frankfurt am Main Germany
Yan Huang
Qifan Wang
qfwang@ fudan.edu.cn
Fudan University
School of Management
220 Han Dan Road
200433 Shanghai China
Jianguo Jia
housebuilding supply chain. A quick review of the main
problems of the housebuilding industry in the UK is given
followed by a presentation of the similarities and differences of
the housebuilding industry with manufacturing in order to ensure
that manufacturing solutions can be used for the housebuilding
industry. A model of a typical housebuilding supply chain is
developed using a set of sub-systems which can be “switched
off” to model specific scenarios. This model is based on an
Inventory and Order Based Production and Control System
(IOBPCS) which is widely used to represent manufacturing
companies. The IOBPCS model is then further developed to
incorporate specific features of housebuilding supply chains. A
review of tests to build up confidence in the model shows that the
model can be used with confidence in terms of its validity,
credibility and generality.
Research on Measure of Portfolio Investment
Risk
The complexity and indetermination of financial risk elements
make risk control more difficult and in real situations we can just
use waming and prevention measures to deal with these risks.
The measure of risk is an important instrument to disclose it.
Securities investment also confronts many stochastic factors that
cannot be controlled. Through comparing the different
approaches to measure portfolio investment risk, this paper
presents the semi-beta model measuring systematic risks based
on the semi-variance and empirical study of this model is given
with Chinese listed companies. Finally, we explore the new
measure methods of portfolio investment risk.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 83
r Index
Eva Jensen
eva jensen@ sam.oru.se
Orebro University
Dept of Social Sciences
SE-70182 Orebro Sweden
Nitin R. J oglekar
joglekar@ bu.edu
Boston University
School of Management
595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston MA 02215 USA
David N. Ford.
davidford@ tamu.edu
Texas A&M University
Department of Civil Engineering
College Station TX 77843-3136 USA
Scott T. Johnson
johnsost@ bp.com
3111 Winding Shore Lane
Katy TX 77450 USA
Is Explicit Information Important for
Performance in Dynamic Systems?
In order to gain some insight in how to assist understanding and
performance in dynamic systems, participants were asked to
interact with a predator-prey system on a personal computer.
Their task was to achieve equilibrium by controlling the size of
the predator population. Results were presented in line graphs in
all three conditions. In one condition pictures illustrating the
population sizes was added, intended to make this information
more explicit. In a second condition pictures illustrated the
prevailing conditions in the system, to explicitly suggest
conclusions to be drawn and actions to be taken. Although this
was expected to facilitate performance, the results revealed an
equally low performance in all groups. The overall success rate
was 33%. This could be explained either as failure in interpreting
the line graphs and/or the pictures not being explicit enough to
assist deduction. Further research is needed to settle which was
the case.
Product Development Resource Allocation with
Foresight
Shortening project duration is critical to product development
project success in many industries. As a primary driver of
progress and an effective management tool, resource allocation
among development activities can strongly influence project
duration. Effective allocation is difficult due to the inherent
closed loop flow of development work and the dynamic demand
pattems of work backlogs. The Resource Allocation Policy
Matrix is proposed as a means of describing resource allocation
policies in dynamic systems. A simple system dynamics model
and control theoretic model of resource allocation in a product
development model are developed. The control theory model is
used to specify a foresighted policy, which is tested with the
system dynamics model. The benefits of foresight are found to
reduce with increasing complexity. Process concurrence is found
to potentially reverse the impact of foresight on project duration.
The model structure is used to explain these results and future
research topics are discussed.
Alternative Modeling Approaches: A Case
Study in the Oil and Gas Industry
Simulation modeling is one technique that BP relies on to
improve the quality of capital investment decisions. To date these
simulations have been highly detailed discrete event simulations
with the financial computations run in parallel using
84 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Index
Robert L. Eberlein
bob@ vensim.com
Ventana Systems Inc
17 Loker Street
Wayland MA 01778 USA
Daniel Kainz
daniel kainz@ kfunigraz.ac.at
Karl Franzens University Graz
Brockmanngasse 13/III/12
8010 Graz Austria
Gimnther Ossimitz
ossimitz@ bigfoot.com
University of Klagenfurt
Dept of Mathematics Education
Universitaetsstr 65
A-9020 Klagenfurt Austria
Christer Kalén
christer kalen@ planteco.lu.se
Lund University
Department of Ecology
223 62 Lund Sweden
Salim Belyazid
salim.belyazid@ chemeng.lth.se
Hordur V. Haraldsson
hordur.haraldsson@ chemeng.|th.se
Lund University
Department of Chemical Engineering
22100 Lund Sweden
Deniz Koca
deniz.koca@ natgeo.lu.se
Lund University
Dept of Physical Geography
Solvegatan 13
223 62 Lund Sweden
spreadsheets. In an ongoing project, some of the tools and
thinking of system dynamics are being introduced. In this study,
we will discuss a project in which we introduced a continuously
formulated model as a supplement to the discrete event model.
For this case we found that the continuously formulated model
could be used to address the same issues as the discrete model
and could do so efficiently. We also found that the discussion
generated by this altemative formulation was more productive
and tended to lead the project team in a more interesting
direction. While all of these results are tentative, we do believe
this is a worthwhile approach to developing models in support of
investment decisions.
Can Students Learn Stock-Flow Thinking?: An
Empirical Investigation
Linda Booth Sweeney and John D. Sterman (2000) were able to
show in their remarkable study that the ability of MIT-students to
discern between stocks and flows in practical situations is rather
low. In a sequel study Guenther Ossimitz (2001) showed that the
performance of Austrian Business Administration students on
“Bath Tub Dynamics tasks” is even worse than in Sweeney and
Sterman. The results also gave first indications that some of the
observed problems might be due to deficiencies in correctly
interpreting flow-related functional graphs. In the present paper
we report about another study investigating students’ abilities in
stock-flow- thinking thereby introducing for the first time a
pretest-posttest design with a 90-minute crash course introducing
basic stock-flow concepts between the two times of testing. We
were able to demonstrate that even an intervention as makeshift
as our crash course was suitable to bring about an improvement
of performance.
Future Demand and Supply of Food in China:
A Modeling Attempt
This paper focuses on future scenarios of demand and supply of
grain in China. Economic development has been growing at a
steady pace for decades and there are no signs of a decline in the
near future. Projections of population trends show that the
population will continue to expand until 2050, when a levelling-
off is predicted. The growth of both population and economy
drives industrialisation and urbanisation where area for
settlement and infrastructure is demanded. Agricultural land is
converted into urban area with high water consumption and
pollution problems. People with a higher income diversify the
diet, a diet that needs a larger area for production. The
fundamental basis for self-subsistence in food production -
agricultural land and clean water - is diminishing rapidly and
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 85
Author Index
Saburo Kameyama
kameyama@ tamacc.chuo-u.ac.jp
Chuo University
2-15-37 Kita-machi
Kokubunji-shi
Tokyo 185-0001 Japan
Hidenori Kobayashi
kobaken0@ fps.chuo-u.ac.jp
Chuo University
Research Unit for Policy Sciences
42-8 Ichigaya Motomura
Shinjuku-ku
Tokyo 162-8473 Japan
Toru Suetake
tohru.suetake@ jp.andersen.com
Arthur Andersen
Soshigaya 1-11-23
Setagaya-ku
Tokyo 157 Japan
Florian Kapmeier
florian kapmeier@ po.uni-stutigart.de
Universitat Stuttgart
Department of Business
Keplerstr 17
Stuttgart 70174 Germany
may soon necessitate an extensive grain import. This study
concludes that even if conservation measures are carried out
China may face an extensive need for import of grain products.
Micro-Macro Finance Structure Modeling
In many developing countries, micro finance has been
successfully introduced as a useful tool for poverty reduction and
entrepreneur development. However, a weak macro and medium
level financial structure can put a limit on sound socio-economic
development even if the macro level financing structure is
strengthening and accelerating micro enterprise sector
development. Even when the micro enterprise sector has steady
development in the first phase, this development can be
interrupted suddenly by adverse occurrences in the macro level
economy or natural disasters. Seamless linkage between the
micro enterprise sector and the large enterprise section with the
SME: Small and Medium Enterprise sector is necessary, and a
key issue is the financing structure for the SME. We have tried to
develop a micro, macro and linkage model that focuses on the
financial mechanism that stimulates economic development. We
conclude that a sound financing structure focuses on the SME
sector and development of the SME sector has a positive impact
on economic development in the long term.
Dynamics of Interorganizational Learning
This paper proposes a model that gives deeper insights into the
dynamics of interorganizational leaning specified for the
example of alliances. Current alliance research tends to neglect a
feedback-perspective which might be the reason why certain
behavioral effects cannot be explained. However, based on
alliance research, three different major feedback-loops that
influence interorganizational leaming dynamics are identified in
this paper: first, a reinforcing loop called ‘trust drives learning’.
It shows that trust between the coworkers in an alliance has a
positive impact on leaming. Second, a balancing feedback-loop
named ‘inertia cuts trust’ states that organizational inertia hinders
the development of trust between coworkers. Third, a positive
feedback-loop called ‘let's lear together’ underlines that two
parent companies aim for common learning instead for learning
from the partner when forming a learning alliance. The model
offers new insights into alliance learning as well as insights into
how specific influencing factors interrelate with each other.
86 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Elzbieta Kasperska
elakaspe@ pols. gliwice.pl
Silesian University of Technology
Institute of Mathematics
Kaszubska 23
Gliwice 44-100 Poland
Elzbieta Kasperska
elakaspe@ pols. gliwice.pl
Silesian University of Technology
Institute of Mathematics
Kaszubska 23
Gliwice 44-100 Poland
Elwira Mateja-Losa
elwimat@ polsl.gliwice.pl
Silesian University of Technology
Institute of Mathematics
Kaszubska 23
Gliwice 44-100 Poland
Damian Slota
damslota@ polsl.gliwice.pl
Silesian University of Technology
Institute of Mathematics
Kaszubska 23
Gliwice 44-100 Poland
Michael Kennedy
kennedms@ sbu.ac.uk
South Bank University
School of Computing IS and Maths
Borough Road
London SE1 0AA UK
Cybernetic Formulation of Some Functions of
Management: Types of Simulation and
Optimization A pproaches within the System
Dynamics Method
The purpose of this paper is to present the cybernetic formulation
of some functions of management. On these grounds, the
proposal for the classification of the types of simulation and
optimization approaches within the system dynamics method is
presented by the author. Some of the investigation is derived
from the classic works of Forrester, Coyle, Wolsterholme and
others, but some constitute the author's own ideas, developed in
recent years. The author welcomes any discussion on this
subject.
Optimal Dynamical Balance of Raw Materials:
Some Concepts of Embedding Optimization in
Simulation on System Dynamics Models and
Vice Versa
The purpose of this paper is to present the optimal dynamic
balance of raw materials. This balance refers to the balance of
production presented in a paper of the same authors in Atlanta.
Now, on that background two different formulations of this
problem are discussed here, using the examples presented. The
concept of embedding optimization in simulation on system
dynamics models and vice versa are discussed. Many simulation
experiments were carried out by the authors and the results are
presented in this paper, respectively.
An Extended Taxonomy of System Dynamics
Models of Higher Education
A number of papers have been published describing various
system dynamics models of higher education institutions and
issues, on topics including external forces, corporate govemance,
planning, resourcing & budgeting, human resource management,
teaching quality, teaching practice, microworlds and enrolment
demand. This paper builds on a previous paper that provided an
initial catalogue and classification of this work in order to
highlight potential areas of research in this field of study and to
identify system archetypes at different hierarchical levels and
discover new ones. This paper therefore presents an extended
taxonomy of system dynamics models in higher education. This
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 87
Michael Kennedy
kennedms@ sbu.ac.uk
South Bank University
School of Computing IS and Maths
Borough Road.
London SE1 0AA UK
Miroljub Kljajic
miroljub.kijajic@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor
Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a
SI-4000 Kranj Slovenia
Carlos A. Legna Verna
clegna@ ull.es
University of La Laguna
Dept of Institutional Economics
38071 La Laguna Spain
Andrej Skraba
andrej.skraba@ fov.uni-mb.si
University of Maribor
Faculty of Organizational Sciences
Kidriceva cesta 55a
SI-4000 Kranj Slovenia
Deniz Koca
deniz.koca@ natgeo.lu.se
Lund University
Dept of Physical Geography
Solvegatan 13
223 62 Lund Sweden
paper builds on the initial taxonomy by widening the scope of the
survey of completed investigations in higher education
management. The findings from these investigations are briefly
described. The taxonomy classifies the completed investigations
into eight specific areas of concem and five hierarchical levels.
Toward a Taxonomy of System Dynamics
Models of the Information Systems Investment
Appraisal Process
A number of papers have been published on various issues
relevant to system dynamics models of the Information Systems
Investment Appraisal Process from several academic and
professional viewpoints. This paper contends that there is a need
to catalogue and classify this work in order to highlight potential
areas of research in this field of study and to identify system
archetypes at different hierarchical levels and discover new ones.
The initial taxonomy is based on a limited literature survey. The
contribution and relevance of each of the sources examined is
briefly described. The taxonomy classifies the completed
investigations into five specific areas of concer and five
viewpoints.
System Dynamics Model Development of the
Canary Islands for Supporting Strategic Public
Decisions
The present paper centers on the problems of decision-making
and decision support related to strategic public decisions. A
methodological approach was developed to support decision-
making where decision-makers are confronted with unexpected
events. The methodology considers the fact that strategic
decisions involve a large breadth of variables, qualitative and
quantitative; and that they imply distributed and remote
interaction between different actors. The approach is based on
the building of qualitative models and the application of system
dynamics for the development of a simulation model. Variables
were identified which affect the sustainable improvement of the
quality of life in the Canary Islands. We used two methods to
address the problem: analysis of the driving dependent forces and
system dynamics.
The Rubber Industry and Extended Producers’
Responsibility Framework: Opportunities and
Threats for Swedish Rubber Manufacturers
An array of sustainable ways either to reduce the amount of
waste rubber generated or for the re-utilisation of waste rubber
products as different means of resources at the end of their
88 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Mats G. Svensson
mats.svensson@ chemeng.lth.se
Lund University
Environmental Science Center
PO Box 118
S-22100 Lund Sweden.
Christer Kalen
christer kalen@ planteco.lu.se
Lund University
Department of Ecology
Ecology Building
223 62 Lund Sweden
Harald Sverdrup
harald.sverdrup@ chemeng.th.se
Salim Belyazid
salim.belyazid@ chemenglth.se
Hordur V. Haraldsson
hordur.haraldsson@ chemeng.|th.se
Lund University
Department of Chemical Engineering
PO Box 124
22100 Lund Sweden
Ulli H. Koenig
ulli.koenig@ rwe.com
RWEAG
Marketing Planning and Research
Opernplatz 1
45128 Essen Germany
Vladimir Koltchanov
viadimir.koltchanov.atn.sa@ wanadoo.fr
ATN
15 rue de Louvre
75001 Paris France
Michel Karsky
kbsfr@ noos.fr
KBS (Knowledge Based Simulation)
340 rue Saint-Jacques
75005 Paris France
service lives are provided and briefly evaluated from economic,
social and environmental perspectives. Potential measures which
the Swedish rubber industry and its major stakeholders can
implement (within the context of extended producer's
responsibility framework) to increase source reduction, reuse,
material recycling, and energy recovery from waste rubber are
examined. Based on the concept of system dynamics, the links
between different issues, possible problems arising from them
and the solutions, and their relation to the sustainable waste
rubber management system are analysed by understanding the
cause and effect relationship between important parameters. A
model is developed using Stella 5.1.1u to help the decision
makers to evaluate different scenarios in Swedish waste rubber
management.
The Rise and Fall of Independent Electricity
Retailers in Germany
In the beginning of the liberalization of the German electricity
market a great number of new, independent electricity retailers
entered the market with mostly very competitive prices.
Everybody expected a highly dynamic market with high
switching rates and the price as the number one switching
criteria. Even the big players started to lower their consumer
prices, launched marketing campaigns and branded their
products. The result of this price-driven competition was the loss
of eamings for all companies, low switching rates, and most of
the new retailers were forced to sell their customers or close their
businesses. The reasons for this disaster are misperception of the
market structure and too optimistic expectations of customer
reactions and wishes. This paper deals with these misperceptions
and the differences between the estimated and the real market
behaviour.
The Individual Daily Mobility Simulation
Model 'MobiSim'
The simulation model MobiSim was elaborated on the demand of
the French Ministry of Transport. The objectives are to provide
assistance in strategic decision making on collective
transportation and the daily individual displacement in their
relationships (interconnections) with the territory development.
MobiSim contains six submodels: population, housing, job,
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 89
thor Index
Philippe Casanova
ph.casanova.atn.sa@ wanadoo.fr
ATN
15 Rue du Louvre
75001 Paris France
Victor V. Korobitsin
korobits@ univer.omsk.su
Omsk State University
55A Mira pr
Omsk 644077 Russia
Julia V. Frolova
frolova@ univer.omsk.su
Omsk State University
55A Mira pr
Omsk 644077 Russia
Egor Kraev
ekraev@ wam.umd.edu
Integrated Social Development Center
PO Box 19452
Accra North Ghana
transportation, displacement and environment. The model
approaches daily mobility by essential motives of displacement:
"house-work", “shopping”, “displacements for educational
needs”; into and between zones, for the population of socio-
professional categories and age groups. The structure of job is
represented by categories of jobs and types of enterprise activity.
The model addresses the modes of displacement and categories
of housing corresponding to the household’s size. The model was
established with Vensim and consists of nearly 6,000 equations.
The interface understands currently 17 screens, allowing it to
establish scenarios and to collect some output results describing
the evolution of daily individual mobility.
Simulation of Evolution Dynamics of a Social
System: Ethnic Solidarity Level
In this paper the hierarchical approach to construct a simulation
model of a complex social system is presented. We consider
society as a complex system. It has a hierarchical structure with
the following subsystem levels: biosphere, ethnosphere,
sociosphere, psychosphere, anthroposphere. The next level is
built on a previous one by hierarchical rule. The presented
research is a demonstration of creating the society model on an
ethnic solidarity level. This model describes the behavior of the
ethnic system as a separate part of the general complex social
system. The ethnic system includes a few ethnoses and provides
their interactions. The interactions transmit by ethnic fields. The
model is described by a system of parabolic differential
equations. The software TERRI is used for the forecast of arising
ethnic conflicts. Based on simulation results the researcher can
compute the direction of ethnic field distribution and the most
probable points of skirmish between ethnoses.
Think DEEP: A Participatory Research Project
DEEP (Distributive Effects of Economic Policy) is an ongoing
project of the Integrated Social Development Center, a Ghanaian
non-governmental organization, to build a disaggregated
dynamic economic model of Ghana’s economy to provide a clear
understanding of the economy-wide feedbacks that determine the
effects of particular government policies and extemal shocks on
the income and quality of life of the poor and marginalized. The
model is structured around a dynamic social accounting matrix
framework, which gives a comprehensive, disaggregated map of
nominal money flows in the economy. While social accounting
matrices are normally used to construct computable general
equilibrium models, using one to structure a dynamic model is an
innovation with substantial advantages. As the relevance and
credibility of the model are established, it should become an
90 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Amyn Lakhani
alakhani@ wab.edu
839 15th Street South
Garden Apartment
Birmingham AL 35205 USA
Reda Lebcir
reda lebcir@ ic.ac.uk
Imperial College
Management School
53 Princes Gate Exhibition Road
London SW7 2PG UK
essential tool for public sector agencies involved in formulating
and advising government on the structural options available for
Ghana, as well as a powerful framework for discussion.
Sustainable C apacity for Health Systems
Management: A Training Project for Senior
Government Health Managers
Lack of positive outcome across social sectors has forced the
government to develop new ways of systems management and
maximize the utilization of scarce resources. The health system
managers are trained primarily in clinical skills and learn systems
management as they go along. This project was designed to train
health managers in those areas. Twelve government health
managers conducted an appraisal to develop a pertinent health
systems management course. Forty-three district health managers
were trained and evaluated for knowledge-gained during the
course. The results showed varying levels of knowledge before
the workshop, which became uniform by the end of the
workshop; there was an overall increase in knowledge-gained
during the workshop. The project recommends developing a
national forum for district health managers. It would serve the
critical purpose of continuing education, systems networking
among districts and understanding the dynamics of systems
management in promoting efficient health care.
Integrative Mechanisms in New Product
Development Projects: Effect of Project
Complexity on Project Performance: A System
Dynamics A pproach
The current paper investigates whether the shift to more
integration, that is use of concurrent engineering process and
cross-functional teams organisation, in new product development
(NPD) projects is suitable for all types of projects regardless of
their level of “project complexity.” The current paper addresses
this research question in two steps. First, a formal framework of
“project complexity” is developed for NPD projects in which its
contributing factors are determined. Second, a system dynamics
model is developed to investigate this issue. The model is used to
quantify the extent of “project complexity” effects on the
relationship between the level of integration in a project and one
performance indicator: development cycle time. The model was
run for a single phase situation and showed that product
complexity and project uncertainty increases project
development cycle time and that increasing co-ordination does
not offset these negative effects on project schedule performance.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 91
Author Index
Myoung Ho Lee
leemh@ hufs.ac.kr
Han-Kuk University of Foreign Studies
270 Imun Dong
Dong Dae mun-Gu
130-081 Seoul Korea
Hoon Huh
hoon@ hufs.ac.kr
Han-Kuk University of Foreign Studies
270 Imun-dong
Dong Dae mun-Gu
Seoul 130-791 Korea
Sang Hyup Lee
infohi2@ koti.re.kr
Korea Transport Institute
2311 Deahwa-Dong
Ilsan-Gu Koyang-Shi
Kyunggi-Do 411 701 Korea
Jacques LeFevre
lefevrej@ libertysurf.fr
Ecole Centrale de Lille
F 59651 Villeneuve Diascq France
A System Dynamics Approach to the Evaluation
of Internet Venture Business
Since 1998, venture businesses in Korea have been flourishing
because there were substantial supports from the Korean
government. Recently, the government-driven policy has been
transformed into the characteristic of a market-driven investment.
This research tries to clarify the major ecosystem of venture
businesses at this point by forming a conceptual map. The result
of this research argues that current methods of performance
measurement are not suitable for a comprehensive explanation of
the dynamic nature of venture businesses. For a better reflection,
it is suggested to develop a simulator which allows empirical and
realistic validation of venture business performance. This
research defies the current notion that the stock market is the
only factor to decide the success or failure of venture firms.
Instead, this study could support the idea of utilizing the
simulator as an investment decision support system for venture
businesses.
The System Dynamics A pproach to Developing
AVCS Maglev Vehicle Development Model
AVCS maglev is the synergistic combination of Advanced
Vehicle Control Systems (AVCS) and the high-speed magnetic
levitation (Maglev) technology. AVCS maglev will provide a
safe, high-speed, high-capacity, energy-efficient, environment-
friendly intercity and intracity transportation system. The
vehicles using the "magway" (maglev guideway), like present
day automobiles, would be privately owned and could operate on
ordinary highways and streets as well as the AVCS magways. In
this paper, the AVCS Maglev Vehicle Development Model
(VDM) is developed to outline the important factors in reducing
the weight and the price of the vehicle. Reducing the weight of
the vehicle will help increase the operating efficiency and
reducing the price will help increase the accessibility to this
highly beneficial transportation system. The AVCS Maglev
Vehicle Development Model is described in two complementary
forms of the system dynamics modeling, causal diagrams and
DY NAMO equations.
Kinetic Process Graphs: Building Intuitive and
Parsimonious Material Stock-Flow Diagrams
with Modifed Bond Graph Notations
This paper presents a new graphical modelling language
extending the stock-flow (SF) diagrams used in system
dynamics: “Kinetic Process Graphs” or KPG’s. A KPG groups
92 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Philippe Levecq
levecq@ fucam.ac.be
Catholic University of Mons
Production and Operations Mgt Dept
Chaussee de Binche 151
7000 Mons Belgium
Nadine Meskens
meskens@ fucam.ac.be
Catholic University of Mons.
Production and Operations Mgt Dept
Chaussee de Binche 151
7000 Mons Belgium
Abdelhakim Artiba
artiba@ fucam.ac.be
Catholic University of Mons
Production and Operations Mgt Dept
Chaussee de Binche 151
7000 Mons Belgium
Tzur Levin
levintzu@ post.tau.ac.il
Tel Aviv University
Schools of Education
Ramat Aviv Israel
Tlya Levin
levintzu@ post.tau.ac.il
Tel Aviv University
Schools of Education
Ramat Aviv Israel
in a single flow-process some mechanisms representing flows
modelled separately in a SF diagram but cognitively linked in our
mental models as belonging to a single process using and
providing material resources of different kinds. KPG’s contain
SF diagrams as special cases and every KPG may be transformed
into a SF equivalent. However for many processes a KPG is
more parsimonious in arrows and thus less visually complex than
its corresponding SF diagram. It is also closer to our cognitive or
mental models and thus more intuitive. In consequence, for this
class of problems, KPG models are often easier to obtain, explain
and maintain than SF diagrams and frequently suggest new vistas
on a given problem. We conclude by showing where KPG’s
belong in the family of modelling languages and by discussing
our current research.
Hospital Production System Modeling and
Simulation Insight of Operating Theatre
Planning
Nowadays, hospitals undergo massive changes. The objective
that hospital managers must reach is to optimise its production by
meeting the customers’ demands. In this paper, we are more
particularly interested in the operating theatre management,
which is the actual matter of great concem to hospitals. More
precisely, we are trying to improve the way the duration of an
operation can be calculated according to the operated patient’s
profile. We first used rough sets method to determine the factors
that are the most explanatory of a great change in the duration of
operation. So, for a given pathology, we have at first created sets
of patients with roughly the same duration of operation. On the
basis of these sets, the rough set theory helped us to determine
the profile of the patients included in these sets and thus to
estimate the durations of operation of new patients according to
their profiles and pathologies.
Introducing Digital Design Methods to System
Dynamics Education
One of the origins of system dynamics is control theory. Thus, it
is worthwhile to investigate how the growing use of digital
models as means of control should affect the field of system
dynamics. In particular, it would be interesting to explore how
the introduction of digital models could enrich the learning of
system dynamics in K-12 curriculum. This paper proposes to do
so through hybrid systems modeling. Hybrid systems are
dynamic systems in which a digital element contmls a
continuous process. The paper illustrates the relevance of hybrid
systems to K-12 education, and describes how hybrid systems
may be modeled by using icon-based software such as STELLA.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 93
Author Index
Ralph L. Levine
leviner@ pilot.msu.edu
Michigan State University
314 Natural Resources Bldg
East Lansing MI 48824 USA
James K. Doyle
doyle@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Dept of Social Science & Policy Studi
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609 USA
Ralph L. Levine
leviner@ pilot.msu.edu
Michigan State University
314 Natural Resources Bldg
East Lansing MI 48824 USA
Two examples showing an implementation that is suitable for
high school students are presented as well as an outline for future
research.
Modeling Generic Structures and Patterns in
Social Psychology
System dynamics has been enriched from many disciplines. This
paper describes our effort to discover generic structures in the
field of social psychology. Social psychologists have
accumulated a body of empirical studies and theories that are
reproducible and apply to a variety of social situations. Our task
was to start modeling a few pivotal dynamic effects found in the
social psychology literature. We present models of the dynamics
of an important social process, namely, the “self-fulfilling
prophecy.” The structure underlying this process is associated
with the drifting goals archetype. Next we model the dynamic
effects of contact between groups. Finally, we develop a set of
models that represent a key process in social psychology, namely
the “fundamental attribution error.” We hope that the approach to
modeling generic structures in social psychology will enrich
future system dynamics models by including relevant biases and
distortions in perception discovered by social psychologists.
Organizational Change at the Team Level: The
Dynamics of High Performing Self-Directed
Work Teams from a Learning Organizational
Perspective
This paper describes a model that explains the changes workers
go through in formation and evolution of self-directed work
teams (SDWT) over a six year period. The formation phase is
characterized by major increases in worker commitment to the
team concept. Upper management has to convince workers that
the company will give them the freedom and resources to
function as a SDWT. Once the team comes into existence,
another set of processes dominate. The model describes the
tradeoff between being empowered to set work intensity and
worker accountability. High performing teams may seek
extemal resources to raise the performance bar, through internal
pressure to excel. Raising the bar generates bumout as an
unintended consequence. However, high performing teams can
be relatively immune to bumout. The model hypothesizes that
loop processes, associated with team spirit and zeal for the job,
appear late in the game to ameliorate the effects of bumout.
94 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Martin Liehr
liehr@ uni-mannheim.de
University of Mannheim
Schloss
68131 Mannheim Germany
Keith Linard
keith@ linard.info
University of New South Wales
Centre for Business Dynamics
42 Rivett Street
Hackett ACT 2602 Australia
Cherylne Fleming
cherylne.fleming@ cbr.defence.gov.au
Lubomir Dvorsky
ldvorsky@ csc.com
Andrew W. Lo
alo@ mit.edu
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street Bld E52 Rm 432
Cambridge MA 02142-1347 USA
Mila Getmansky
mgetman@ mit.edu
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-358
Cambridge MA 02139 USA
A Platform for System Dynamics Modeling:
Methodologies for the Use of Predefined Model
Components
In the poster presentation a platform for component-based system
dynamics models is developed. The platform is designed to
support the formal model building process with predefined,
standardized model-components. The research presented, focuses
on methodological considerations. In order to build models with
predefined components, different methodolgies and concepts are
discussed and integrated. These are: 1 .hierarchical modeling, 2.
reference modeling, 3. object orientation, 4. problem orientation
5. transferability/ reusability of generic structures, 6. validation
of component-based models. The components are based on the
concepts of generic structures. They allow to vary the level of
resolution of the resulting component-based simulation models.
System Dynamics as the Link between
Corporate Vision and Key Performance
Indicators
The BSC has gained corporate support because of its potential to
link vision, strategy and deliverables via a coherent set of KPI’s.
Unfortunately, the BSC has largely failed to deliver this ideal
because of the lack of a rigorous methodology for selecting the
metrics and for establishing the relationship between the metrics
and the corporate strategy. Rather, metrics are typically based on
group consensus or individual intuition, influenced strongly by
data availability and the effort of collection and maintenance.
This paper proposes an approach whereby possible metrics are
plotted against the high level activities of the organisation.
Cognitive mapping and hierarchical cluster analysis are used to
derive a rational basis for identifying interrelationships between
the metrics and their linkages to corporate strategy and vision, as
a precursor to the development of a balanced scorecard
framework.
Functionality of Banks and Hedge Funds and
Contagion Between Financial Institutions
The paper studies crises and contagion effects in the framework
of two financial institutions: a bank and a hedge fund. System
dynamics models of a hedge fund and a bank are formulated.
The concept of contagion is discussed in the framework of these
two financial institutions. The goal of the paper is to understand
conditions under which each of the financial institutions can fail
and determine when a failure in one financial institution can
trigger a contagion effect that leads to the failure in another
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 95
Author Index
Eugenio L opez-Ortega
elo@ pumas.jingen.unam.mx
National University of Mexico
Instituto de Ingenieria
Apdo Postal 70-472
Coyoacan 04510 Mexico DF Mexico
Rita Saloma-Velazquez
David W. Lounsbury
lounsbud@ mskce.org
Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer
Center
Dept of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sci
330 E 59th Street 8th Floor
New York NY 10022 USA
Ralph L. Levine
leviner@ pilot.msu.edu
Michigan State University
314 Natural Resources Bldg
East Lansing MI 48824 USA
financial institution. Both models and the concept of contagion
are validated and discussed within established financial
frameworks. The paper provides conclusions and policies how to
avoid or mitigate the effects of financial crises and contagion.
A Worker Productivity Model
A model with the purpose of explaining the behavior or the
productivity is presented. The model is based on the concept
developed by Hershauer and Ruch in 1978. The main object of
the new model is to have a model that can be used to simulate the
response of the productivity of a worker to different actions. The
new model considers ten factors that influence the productivity
of a worker. They are located inside four levels of activities:
Personal factors (responsibility, leaming capacity and
satisfaction), Work Group factors (leadership and work team
organization), Technological factors (training and working
methods) and Organizational factors (qualitative incentives,
quantitative incentives and productivity indicators). The
development of the model consists on two stages. In the first
stage, the dynamic model was constructed. The second stage
consists on using the model at different companies with the
purpose of adjusting the values assigned to several auxiliary
variables.
Understanding the Psychosocial Dynamics of
HIV/AIDS Prevention and Care in the
Community: Base Case Model Findings and
Implications
A system dynamics model was built for the purpose of fostering
a greater understanding about the psychosocial dynamics of
HIV/AIDS prevention and care in the community over a
twentyyear time horizon, from the epidemic’s inception (circa
1981) to the present. In particular, the psychosocial dynamics of
perceived stigma, complacency, and [dislempowerment were
studied in relation to the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS in
Michigan. The study was informed by the results of an extensive
qualitative research project that explored the current and
emerging needs of persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) and
by the insight and knowledge of a group of ten core informants
from Michigan's HIV community. The underlying dynamics of
the problem focus in the study were expressed in a set of five key
causal processes. Initial feedback from members of Michigan’s
HIV community affirmed that the base case model has provided
deeper insight into the phenomena of HIV/AIDS prevention and
care.
96 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Mohamed Loutfi
mohamed.loutfi@ sunderland.ac.uk
Alfredo 0. Moscardini
a.moscardini@ sunderland.ac.uk
Malcolm Pearson
malcolm.pearson@ sunderland.ac.uk
University of Sunderland
School of Computing Eng. & Tech
St Peter’s Campus
Sunderland SR6 ODD UK
Gefei Lu
gefei.lu@ ifi.uib.no
Gianliborio G. Marrone
gianliborio@ tin.it
CUSA System Dynamics Group
via Jotan 14
Menfi AG 92013 Italy
Giovan Battista Montemaggiore
giannimonte@ hotmail.com
CUSA System Dynamics Group
Pzza Alberico Gentili 12
90142 Palermo Italy
Luis Luna
118287@ csc.albany.edu
52 E Knights Bridge
Guilderland NY 12084USA
Deborah Lines Andersen
dla@ csc.albany.edu
University at Albany
Information Science and Policy
135 Westem Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Computing and Engineering Distance
Education Centre (CEDEC): A Systemic
Approach
The paper considers the problem of capacity constraints at an
educational centre. It begins with an economic analysis of the
effect on capacity due to an increase in demand. The limitations
of such an analysis are then shown. A causal loop diagram and a
system dynamics model are then constructed. By running these
models a deeper understanding of the problem is obtained. Full
use is made of the archetype “shifting the burden.” Modeling
using SD gives management a practical tool for solving problems
especially in its treatment of delay lags.
Measuring Performance in a City Water
Company Through a Dynamic Balanced
Scorecard
To promote public utilities’ competitiveness, public
organisations publish rating reports, comparing results achieved
by different companies. Those results are not only referred to the
financial dimension, but also to ‘soft’ variables, which impact in
companies’ long-term survival and growth. Management
accounting models seem to have limitations in performance
measurement, particularly in evaluating soft variables. For this
reason, many companies apply the Balanced Scorecard (BSC).
However, this tool lacks a proper consideration of delays
between causes and effects, and a feedback loop framework
between the different perspectives. Here, we present an system
dynamics-based BSC, developed upon an analysis of an Italian
water company, Amap Spa. By modelling the structure
generating the key-variables behaviours, it provides managers
with a decision-making tool based on simulations, which helps
them to gain insights into the relation between decisions and
performances.
Using Qualitative Methods in the
Conceptualization and Assessment of System
Dynamics Models
The field of system dynamics depends heavily upon the use of
quantitative data to generate feedback models. This paper argues
that qualitative data and their analysis do have a central role to
play at all levels of the modeling process. Although the classic
literature on system dynamics strongly supports this argument,
the protocols to incorporate this information during the modeling
process are not detailed by the most influential authors. Data
gathering techniques and qualitative data analysis techniques
97
Kambiz E. Maani
kmaani@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
MSIS Department
Private Bag 92019
Auckland New Zealand
Vandana Maharaj
University of Auckland
123 Onetaunga Road
Birkenhead
Auckland New Zealand
Raymond Madachy (S)
madachy@ usc.edu
University of Southern California
Computer Science Department
Los Angeles CA 90089-0781 USA
could all have a strong, critical role in rigorous system dynamics
efforts. The paper describes some of the main qualitative
techniques developed by social scientists and explores their
suitability in the different stages of the modeling process.
Additionally, the authors argue that the techniques described in
the paper could contribute to the understanding of the modeling
process, facilitate communication among modelers and clients,
and set up a methodological framework to promote constructive
discussion around the merits of qualitative versus quantitative
modeling.
Links Between Systems Thinking and C omplex
Problem Solving: Further Evidence
There is a widely held belief that systems thinking is an answer
to the increasing complexity of the environments in which we
live and function. Despite strong assertions, however, the
relationship between systems thinking and complex problem
solving has received slight attention in the literature. Using
Richmond’s (1997) seven-classification scheme as the theoretical
base, this paper investigates the link between systems thinking
and complex problem solving. The Verbal Protocol Analysis
(VPA) methodology was used to gather and analyse the
empirical data. The findings of the study indicate that while the
degree of systems thinking does matter, in fact, it is certain types
of systemic thinking that are more relevant to performance.
Further, evidence shows that subject’s approach to the problem is
also a highly pertinent factor in task performance in that better
performers displayed a distinctive pattern of thought that differed
from that of the worse performers.
Software Process Concurrence
Process concurrence provides a robust framework for modeling
software processes and their constraint mechanisms. It is general
enough to characterize a broad spectrum of current and emerging
methodologies in terms of work available to complete on a
project. It is more generally applicable than the Rayleigh curve,
provides a detailed view of process dynamics and is meaningful
for planning and improvement purposes. With it one can derive
optimal staffing profiles for different project types, and as a
shared project model it serves to improve stakeholder
communication. Many modem techniques serve to increase
concurrence (and thus decrease cycle time) in several ways like
increasing task parallelism or automating product elaboration.
Process concurrence can evaluate such strategies by modeling
task interdependency constraints between and within phases,
This paper will introduce process concurrence, show examples
from the software development domain, compare concurrence
98 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
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Abhijit Mandal
amandal@ london.edu
London Business School
Dept of Strategic and Int'l Mgt
Sussex Place Regent's Park
London NW1 4SA UK
Elisabetta Marafioti
elisabetta.marafioti@ uni-bocconi.it
SDA Bocconi
Via Bocconi 8
20136 Milan Italy
Edoardo Mollona
edoardo.mollona@ uni-bocconi.it
Universita Bocconi
Isitituto di Economia A ziendale
Viale Isonzo 23
20135 Milano Italy
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
(S)
relationships for typical development situations, run some
simulation experiments, and present lessons for practitioners
based on the modeling.
Creating C ompetitive A dvantage through
Dynamic Resource Interactions
In the context of the resource-based view, some researchers have
pointed out that individual resources are not valuable by
themselves, but produce value only in combination with other
resources. Our belief is that a collection of resources that
interacts within itself in specific manners to produce complex
behaviors, over time, could be a source of value to organizations.
This paper seeks to explain the divergent performance profiles
presented by two almost identical branches of an insurance firm.
Simulations are carried out to examine the consequences of
particular sets of interactions on identical initial resource
heterogeneity. The simulations differentiate the impacts of initial
resource heterogeneity and interaction amongst resources in
contributing to the complex behavior of resources. Some
conclusions are drawn about the significance of these two factors
in the generation and sustenance of competitive advantage.
Governing a Complex Social System with
System Dynamics: The Management and
Economics of an Airport Hub
Managing a hub successfully implies the interaction of numerous
actors, both public and private, operating at local, national and
intemational levels. Such a complexity implies that, rather than
the content of a single decision, it is important to understand the
dynamics emerging from an articulated system of decisions. In
order to improve the quality of single decisions, the ability is
99
Gianliborio G. Marrone
gianliborio@ tin.it
CUSA System Dynamics Group
via Jotan 14
Menfi AG 92013 Italy
Giovan Battista Montemaggiore
giannimonte@ hotmail.com
CUSA System Dynamics Group
Pzza Alberico Gentili 12
90142 Palermo Italy
Ignacio J. Martinez-
Moyano
im7797@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Rockefeller College
135 Western Avenue Milne 101A
Albany NY 12222 USA
Gary Wadhwa
awadhwal@ nycap.rr.com
Adirondack Oral & Maxillofacial Surg
648 Plank Road
Clifton Park NY 12065 USA
100
Author Index
required to generate valid systemic conceptual models aimed at
understanding of the long-term consequences. This paper can be
considered the result of the second evolution of the hub model. A
first evolution of the model was presented in a paper written in
2000. While the 2000 paper focused particularly on hub creation,
this paper focuses on hub management and the economic impact
of managerial choices. The directions proposed by the model and
the possibility of generalizing it in other systemic contexts are
explored.
Re-Focusing the C ompetitive System in a Public
Utility Company: A Feedback-Oriented
Approach: The Case of AMIA
During the last decade, environmental issues have been taken
into a serious consideration. Lawmakers have been addressing
their activities towards a more severe regulation of the urban
waste sector, trying to create the structure for a competitive
market. This paper analyses the case of Amia Spa, the municipal
waste management company of Palermo. Although the managers
are confident on their knowledge about company’s internal
processes, they are aware of their weakness in understanding the
structure of their competitive system, since the “municipality”
way of thinking is still ingrained in the company’s culture. A
preliminary qualitative system dynamics model was built to help
Amia’s managers to critically review their assumptions about the
competitive system. Our main goal was demonstrating how
systems thinking principles and system dynamics could support
Amia’s managers in their learning process oriented to the
understanding of the structure underlying the new market
segments the company will serve.
Modeling the Impact of Knowledge-Based
Innovations: The Case of Best Practices
Implementation in a Small Health Care Private
Practice
This study uses a group model building approach to create a
dynamic theory of the impact that the implementation of
knowledge-based innovations has on the behavior of a small
health care private practice centered in customer value and
service quality. The development of the model generated an
increase in the employee awareness of the impact of their work
in the organization, and a preliminary understanding of the
dynamics of innovation implementation in the firm. However, by
the end of the study, the complete interconnectedness of the
system was not yet clear for everyone. The results suggest that in
small health-care practices, like the one studied, to pay attention
to the feedback processes in place in the organization, to manage
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Ali N. Mashayekhi
mashayek@ sharif.edu
Sharif University of Technology
Graduate School of Management
Azadi Avenue P O Box 11365-8639
8639 Tehran Iran
Willie J. McFadden
willie-mcfadden@ usma.edu
US Military Academy
Dept of Systems Engineering
Bldg 745 Mahan Hall
West Point NY 10996 USA
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
innovations in a purposeful way, and to manage the relation with
the environment have important influences on the success of
innovation implementation. The system dynamics model
developed— presenting an endogenous theory of how service
organizations influence their demand— for the study is explained.
Management of Asthma Treatment
In treatment of many diseases, there is a tendency to rely on
short-term treatment. Short-term treatment provides relieves for
the patient from suffering and is seek by those who are under
pain. However, such a short-term treatment has some long-term
consequences and makes the long-term treatment much more
difficult. In addition, continuous use of short-term treatment
creates habit and addiction for the patient in many diseases. Such
addiction makes it difficult for the patient to avoid short-term
treatment. These dynamics are common for many diseases
including asthma. In this paper a model is presented that captures
the dynamic of asthma treatment. The model is used to examine
different treatment strategies and their impacts on the patients in
terms of suffering and the control and the essential treatment of
the disease. The model can be used to help the management of
asthma treatment by both patients and physicians.
Officer Retention: Incentives and Their Effect
on Officer Behavior C oncerning Career
Decisions
The retention of quality officers is a critical issue for the Army.
101
Robert J. McLeod
mecleod@ tphs.nsw.edu.au
Pittwater House Schools
PO Box 244
Manly NSW 1655 Australia
Alan Charles McLucas
a.melucas@ adfa.edu.au
University of New South Wales
Australian Defence Force Academy
School of Civil Engineering
Northcott Drive
Campbell ACT 2600 Australia
This paper proposes that the problem is managing personnel
expectations when faced with career decisions. Through causal
loop modeling it is possible to identify incentive behavior loops
that influence officer retention decisions. The initial effort for
this research project is the identification of incentive and
disincentive variables, then to determine and explain the causal
relationships affecting officer retention at each grade level. The
critical secondary effort is to develop the causal loop structure
for each officer rank and determine the loop behaviors that
emerge. This phase of the research will identify loops that could
yield multiple behaviors, verify the variables that influence
officer retention decisions, and help build the final simulation
model. The simulation model will be used to experiment with
various policy options designed to increase and stabilize the
Amny’s retention problem.
A Model for Cultural Change in Schools: An
Evaluation of Some New Learning Organization
Methodologies
Schools are complex systems and have traditionally been
resistant to change due to a combination of complex social and
cultural factors. In spite of many attempts to effect meaningful
change and improvement, schools have remained relatively
unchanged in a deterministic scientific paradigm, rather than a
systemic change paradigm, or in the context of modemity rather
than post modemity. To change the culture of schools therefore
requires new, advanced and sophisticated approaches. The
essential task in creating a LO was the creation of enabling
cultures and structures, which were needed at the individual and
organisational level. This was the essential focus for the creation
of a LO "Model of Cultural Change in Schools", that would
augment such cultures and structures. This paper looks at such a
model for cultural change and presents the results of research
into the effectiveness of selected learning organisation
methodologies in changing a_ school's culture. These
methodologies include "dialogue", "scenario analysis", and
"leaning histories".
Improving Causal Mapping Practice Using the
System Dynamics 'Front-End' Tool
Causal loop diagrams are graphical aids for depicting hypotheses
about causality and feedback mechanisms. Though widely used,
causal loop diagramming has significant limitations. Causal loop
diagrams can contain numerous untested assumptions about
causality. This paper demonstrates how causal loop diagramming
practice can be made more robust. The proffered technique
described in this paper suggests how we might improve the ways
102 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Arif Mehmood
amehmood@ uwaterloo.ca
University of Waterloo
Department of Civil Engineering
200 University Ave West
Waterloo ON N2L 3G1 Canada
Frank Saccomanno
saccoman@ uwaterloo.ca
University of Waterloo
Department of Civil Engineering
200 University Avenue West
Waterloo ON N2L 3G1 Canada
Bruce Hellinga
University of Waterloo
Department of Civil Engineering
200 University Ave West
Waterloo ON N2L 3G1 Canada
Una Mellett
una.mellett@ eurocontrol.int
Eurocontrol
Rue de la Fusée 96
1130 Brussels Belgium
we contemplate cause and effect. Applying the technique, and
using the tool, offers new opportunities for testing assumptions
about multi-factorial causal influences. The paper suggests that
our first attempts at building remedial strategies for complex
systemic problems might be completed without building
quantitative stock and flow models. The paper demonstrates how
causal loop diagrams can be kept free of errors in logic. It also
raises a number of important issues regarding the ways we view
combinations of potentially confounding causal influences, and
identifies the need for further research in this area.
Application of System Dynamics in C ar-
Following Models
Over the past 50 years, many different "car-following" models
have been proposed to describe driver behaviour in a traffic
stream. A number of inherent assumptions about human
constraints and preferences in existing car-following models
hamper their validity for use in the design and evaluation of
different ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems) technologies
and/or controls such as AVCSS (Advanced Vehicle Control and
Safety Systems). In this paper we introduce a new system
dynamics (SD) car-following model that addresses many of the
shortcomings of existing car-following models and provides a
more relevant platform for simulating driver behavior in all types
of car-following situations subject to changing traffic conditions.
The proposed SD model was developed and validated based on
observed vehicle tracking data. Preliminary results suggest that
the proposed model yields speed and spacing profiles for
vehicles in "real time" that compare well with those observed
empirically.
A Strategic and Integrated Approach to Human
Issues in Air Traffic Management
One current and future challenge is demonstrating and creating
awareness and understanding among corporate teams about how
incorporating human factors in their various business areas can
improve performance and assist in timely implementation.
Building a strategic model of human issues embedded within a
collaborative scenario planning process helps to build this bridge.
This paper outlines how such an approach is being applied to
improve the planning for air traffic controllers, shows how such
an approach could be extended to other human issues, and
demonstrates their impact on ATM business performance.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 103
Author Index
Annabel Membrillo
annam@ strategic-clarity.com
Strategic Clarity
Colonia Los Candiles
Jose Maria Ochoa #478
76190 Queretaro Mexico
Conrado Garcia Madrid
cong@ strategic-clarity.com
Strategic Clarity
Colonia Los Candiles
Jose Maria Ochoa #478
76190 Queretaro Mexico
Felipe Polo
fpolo@ sapal.gob.mx
Ernesto Enei
eenei@ sapal.gob.mx
SAPAL
Blvd Torres Landa No 2620 Ote
Leon Gto Mexico 37480
Carlos Manuel Méndez
Acosta
cmanuelma@ ciudad.com.ar
Universidad Catolica Argentina
Facultad de Ciencias A grarias
Paraguay 2669 3er Piso
1425 Buenos Aires Argentina
Ma Isabel Alonso Magdaleno
ialonso@ correo.uniovi.es
University of Oviedo
Campus del Cristo
Avda del Cristo s/n
33071 Oviedo Asturias Spain
Esther Menezes
Giovanni M. de Holanda
giovanni@ cpqd.com.br
Graziella C. Bonadia
Joao Henrique A. Franco
franco@ cpqd.com.br
R. Benetton Martins
Fundagao CPqD
SP 340 Km 118
5 CEP 13083-970
Campinas SP Brasil
Applying the Managing from Clarity
Methodology to Sustainable Management of the
Water Supply and Recollection System in the
City of Leon
This paper tells about our experience in using the “Managing
from Clarity” methodology - systems thinking and system
dynamics - to aid group decision-making and _ strategy
development for the govemmental water management system in
the city of Leon, Mexico, named SAPAL. The methodology
consists in gaining strategic clarity in how the management team
designs and manages five strategic elements - its Goals,
Resources, Actions, Structure and People (GRASP). This clarity
helps leaders to understand from a systemic point of view the
organization with which they are interacting every day, to
understand how to move it in the desired direction and provides
them with a dynamic and comprehensive tool with which to
communicate the whole view of the organization and where
everyone fits in it.
Dynamics of Information in the Meat Supply
Chain: The Argentinean Case
This work analyzes the bovine meat chain in Argentina. Using
system dynamics a model was elaborated. This model picks up
the operation of the supply chain coordination of bovine meat.
This model picks up delays, feedback and non-lineal
relationships to explain the coordination mechanisms among the
different actors. The chain works with a mechanism of market
coordination. Delays in the transmission of the price are
common. These delays are confused with the shortage of
information inside the production and distribution system. If the
mechanisms of information transmission worked, coordinately,
this information it would arrive quickly to the producer who
could improve the product quality by means of superior genetics,
quick selection for precocity, fertility, speed of growth, feeding,
sanity, etc. The delays in the arrival of the information affect the
correct offer chain coordination.
Dealing with Complexity in Telecom: A System
Dynamics A pproach for Planning New Services
and Technologies
Telecom markets are undergoing rapid change all over the world.
Economy globalisation, deregulation, technology evolution and
increased competition all present continuous challenges to
telecom players. In order to successfully operate in this new
scenario, telecom operators and service providers must use new
104 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Leslaw Michnowski
kte@ psl.org.pl
Al 3 Maja 2 m 164
00-391 Warazawa Poland
Tatehiko Miki
miki@ dis.osaka-sandai.ac.jp
Osaka Sangyo University
3-1-1 Nakagaito Daitoh-shi
Osaka 574-8530 Japan
approaches, tools and techniques to face the demand for new
services and applications by users. The complexity and
dynamism exhibited by such a scenario and by the features and
technologies inherent to new telecom services, make a system
thinking/system dynamics approach especially suited for the job.
This paper presents the methodology for telecom service
planning that has been used by our team at CPqD. The
methodology incorporates a systems thinking/system dynamics
approach in order to support business modelling and the risk
analysis. The paper also shows how the methodology is put to
work, helping a software developer to evaluate and compare
different business models associated with an electronic courier
service.
World Integrated Warning Forecasting System
Based on System Dynamics Principles as a Basic
Factor in Sustainable Development
The world is in crisis. For reaching sustainable development, it is
necessary to change methods of shaping policy based on
knowledge of its complex and future results. We ought to create
the possibility of forecasting and measurably evaluating policy
effects and other changes in life conditions. This will allow
economics to change based on accounts of complex profits and
costs with their social and natural elements. To this end a big
international science-technology operation on the popular and
common use of system dynamics should be done. For proper
governance I propose also popularizing the System of Life (SoL)
- a general homeomorphic conceptual model. SoL reflects
common properties and structural features of systems: man -
technology - environment (social and/or natural), their sub-
systems (especially man - technology) and over-systems. It
reflects life-systems feedbacks. It also reflects the life processes
of these kinds of systems. SoL includes static as well as dynamic
properties and structural features of such systems.
A Simulation Study of Domestic Rice
Distribution Under New J apanese Food Law of
1994
The Japanese govemment has been developing policy in
Japanese agriculture in a new intermational environment. A new
Food Law was established in 1994. The old law had provided for
government control over the production, purchase and pricing of
rice, but the new law confines its role mainly to storage. The
government projects the supply and demand of rice to ensure
stabilization, establish the price, and implement production
adjustments and coordination of a flexible stockpiling system. A
simulation study was made to obtain basic information about the
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 105
Author Index
operation of stockpiles and the amount of planned distribution of
governmental purchases and imports. Assuming that rice is
shipped through the voluntarily marketed rice channel or through
government channels, a system dynamics model of rice
distribution was constructed. Our simulation greatly helps to
understand that the voluntarily marketed distribution plan may be
approved to maintain stockpiles and withhold rice from the
market if necessary.
Thar A. Miklashevich Immanent Haziness of Social Systems:
miblashevich@ yehoo.com Mathematical Description and Control
Belarusian Polytechnic Academy
Sy Anes Mechanics The hierarchical multilevel system theory is used to the social
Minsk 220027 Belarus system evolution description. The development of the social
system as an evolution of systems with inside non-determination
is studied on the base of non-standard analysis. The evolution of
social systems is represented as a movement in the space of
states. "Human" states space is the reduction of full space which
is happening by the filtration. The global and local optimal
trajectories from point of view of mathematics are determined.
Brendan Miller Applying System Dynamics Modeling for
bam@ sloanmiteda Learning to a Messy Problem in the Public
31 Fairmount Avenue Sector
Somerville MA 02144 USA
This paper describes a community modeling process for the
Greater Boston region developed jointly by the author and the
Boston Foundation that emphasized the modeling-as-learning
approach and addressed the unique characteristics of this public
sector situation. The process was successfully piloted in a series
of eight three-hour workshops. By repeating the workshop
multiple times, we were able to develop greater confidence in the
vision, trends, possible drivers, and recommended strategies.
Formal feedback forms and informal questioning indicated that
participants left the workshops energized by their new insight
and hopeful that change was possible. Subsequent stages of the
process have yet to be developed but they will build on the work
already done. In a very real way, the modeling process might
even serve to assist in defining the problem itself more clearly as
the systemic interrelations of the key trends are better understood
and we gain confidence in our chosen model boundary.
106 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Pavinder Monga
Konstantinos Triantis
triantis@ viedu
Virginia Tech
System Performance Laboratory
7054 Haycock Road Room 428
Falls Church VA 22043-2311 USA
Michael Montagna
michael.montagna@ state.me.us
Maine State Planning Office
38 State House Station
Augusta ME 04333 USA
John P. Davulis
john.davulis@ cmpco.com
Central Maine Power Company
83 Edison Drive
Augusta ME 04336 USA
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
A Dynamic Model for the Development of New
Technologies for Ship Systems
In this age of constant influx of new technologies, organizations
must continually adopt and exploit new technologies.
Unfortunately, adopting new technologies may bring unexpected
consequences for the systems the organization procures. The
traditional systems engineering implementation process as
practiced in many organizations can be thought of as the chief
reason for the ineffective implementation of new technologies. It
fails to adequately plan for the technology’s life cycle that
includes development, integration on existing platforms,
operations and disposal. The objective of this research is to
develop a system dynamics modeling framework that will allow
for the evaluation of the technology development process as an
integral part of the technology implementation process. The
fundamental dynamic behaviors will be explored given that cost
overruns are a very important control mechanism within the
technology development process. As part of this modeling effort
the effects of workforce training, complexity and maturity of the
new technology, and rework will be addressed.
Growing Vacationland by Retaining and
Attracting Knowledge Workers
This paper considers the benefit of retaining and attracting highly
skilled workers as a means toward prompting job and income
creation in the State of Maine, a rural region of the US with a
small share of high-tech jobs. The region faces dual problems of
the out-migration of young, educated workers and an inability to
grow its labor force with the kind of knowledge workers that
high-tech firms want. As a consequence, the State has limited
success in attracting or growing high-tech companies. Research
findings from other regions demonstrate the crucial linkage
between a region's quality of place and its ability to attract and
107
Taehoon Moon
thmoon@ post.cau.ac.kr
Chung-Ang University
Dept of Urban and Regional Planning
San 40-1 Daeduck Myun A hnsung City
Kyung Ki Province 456-756 Korea
Cherine Mohamed Morsi
shereen_morsi@ hotmail.com
4 Tarik El Nasr
Nasr City
Cairo Egypt
Alfredo 0. Moscardini
a.moscardini@ sunderland.ac.uk
University of Sunderland
School of Computing Engineering &
Tech
St Peter’s Campus
Sunderland SR6 ODD UK
108
retain knowledge workers. Can Maine follow a similar path? The
paper proposes developing a system dynamics model based upon
the knowledge of participants involved in a collaborative effort.
The desirability of forging public-private alliances to stimulate
investment in the cultural capital of the State is explored.
Environmental Carrying Capacity of the Seoul
Metropolitan Area: Estimation, Implication
and Limitations
The purpose of this paper is estimating the environmental
carrying capacity of the Seoul Metropolitan Area for sustainable
city management using a system dynamics model.
Environmental carrying capacity can be defined as the level of
human activity which a region can sustain at an acceptable
quality of life level. In this paper, the environmental carrying
capacity was operationalized as a maximum number of industry
structure, population, and housing that can sustain a certain level
of environmental quality. The model developed limits its main
focus to the NO2 level of ambient air of Seoul. A box model was
used to improve the estimation of ambient air quality of Seoul.
The box model was translated into a system dynamics model and
combined with an urban dynamics model to estimate the
maximum number of population, industry structure, and housing
at an equilibrium point that sustains a desirable NO2 level.
Several policy implications for sustainable city management are
discussed.
Savings-Investments Model in Egypt
This work is an extension of the work by Nathan Forrester on the
use of basic macroeconomic theory to stabilize policy analysis.
Our main contribution, in this paper, is embedding the gap
between savings and investments that already exists in the
Egyptian economy and how to eliminate this gap. Explaining the
reasons beyond this problem needs first to exhibit the Egyptian
economic cycle represented in the production cycle of gross
domestic production (GDP). The GDP depends on potential
production (which consists of labor force and capital available in
our society) and total demand in short-term. The capital
formation cycle depends on total domestic investment, which
consists of public investment and private investment. The total
domestic investment depends on what is available from local
resources. The macroeconomic level contains many feedback
loops that require us to offer a structural interpretation of the
behavior of the Egyptian economy.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
r Index
Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Dept of Information Science
PB 7800
N-5020 Bergen Norway
Oje Danell
Swedish Univ of Agricultural Sciences
Box 7023
S-750 07 Uppsala Sweden
Eldar Gaare
Norwegian Inst for Nature Research
Tungasletta 2
N-7004 Trondheim Norway
Jouko Kumpula
Finnish Game and Fisheries Rsch Int
SF-99910 Kaamanen Finland
Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Dept of Information Science
PB 7800
N-5020 Bergen Norway
Erling Moxnes
erling.moxnes@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Dept of Information Science
PB 7800
N-5020 Bergen Norway
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Reindeer Husbandry: A Practical Decision
Tool for Adaptation of Herds to Rangelands
This decision-tool is focused on the adaptation of reindeer herds
to available food resources in a district, i.e. to the availability and
quality of winter and summer pastures. Previous studies have
found that practical management is complicated by the dynamics
involved and by lack of precise information. Hence one is faced
with an information problem. The decision-tool captures the
essence of optimisation models and should be sufficiently simple
to be used in practice. In short, the decision-tool helps organize
raw time-series data such that they become directly useful for
decision-making. The intention is that the tool shall stimulate to
reflection and discussions that may lead to increased mutual
understanding, better collection and use of data, and to better
strategies. Case studies from the Nordic countries indicate that
the tool produces new and interesting insights from existing data.
Feel free to ask the authors for a demonstration of the tool.
Aggregate Versus Cohort Models: A Policy
Sensitivity Analysis
The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we compare two
representations of a fish stock: a complex cohort (age-class)
model and a simple aggregate (surplus growth) model. A key
question is whether the aggregate model is an appropriate
simplification of the more complex model. The comparison is
made with respect to the optimal fishing strategies that follow
from each representation. With proper economic mechanisms in
place, the difference between the two harvesting policies is
surprisingly small. Second, we see the comparison as an example
of an advanced sensitivity analysis, where sensitivity in terms of
policy is considered rather than in terms of behavior. Assuming
the ultimate aim of modeling is better policies, our choice seems
a proper one. However, we also recognize that in many cases,
less costly tests of behavioral sensitivity may prove more
practical.
Value of Predicting Environmental Variation in
Fishery Management
Decision-makers are often concemed with forecasts of
environmental variables. However, the value of forecasts in
terms of improved quality of decisions is not extensively studied.
In this article we investigate the value of forecasts by the use of
stochastic, dynamic optimization. The case is Northeast Arctic
cod (Gadus Morhua) in the Barents Sea. We find that the value
of ideal forecasts, when used to their full potential, is around 3 to
109
Paul Newton
paulnewton@ atiglobal net
Comell University
312 Warren Hall
Ithaca NY 14850 USA
Cees Niesing
cees.niesing@ eurocontrol.int
Rue de la Fusée 96
1130 Brussels Belgium
Catalina Ochoa
fochoa@ geo.net.co
Carrera 43C No 1 A Sur 182
Ed Canaveral
Medellin Colombia
(S)
5 percent improvement in expected net present value. More
realistic forecasts lead to improvements less than one percent.
For practical purposes, it is only the forecast for the coming year
that matters, long-term forecasts are of no use because the
managed fishery is very flexible. These findings suggest that
highly simplified forecasts can be used in models. The
conclusions are likely to be somewhat sensitive to choice of
model, a theme for further research.
Repeated Overshoot and C ollapse Behavior:
An Example from the Petroleum Industry
Repeated overshoot and collapse behavior is commonly observed
both in manufacturing and service industries, as well as in other
social and ecological systems. This paper uses an example from
the petroleum industry to illustrate a causal structure that can
give rise to such behavior. Increasing business unit performance
repeatedly erodes and overshoots the capacity of the business to
continue to produce increasing performance. When business unit
performance falls due to eroded capacity, the capacity gradually
recovers, eventually enabling a new spurt of business growth.
Changing the capacity acquisition policy shifts business
performance behavior from repeated overshoot and collapse to
desired exponential growth. Model extensions, including
balancing capacity acquisition against the risk of having too
much capacity in a market downtum, are discussed.
Air Traffic Controller Manpower Planning
Modeling: A Learning Platform for
Understanding the Staffing Process
Air Traffic Controller (ATCO) shortages seem difficult to
overcome worldwide. Some aspects of manpower needs are
probably considered at too late a stage or their impact is
underestimated. An ATCO Manpower Planning (MP) simulation
model (LAMPS) has been developed to assess the overall MP
process in relation to air traffic demand over a period of 15 years.
LAMPS enables the various players/decision makers to increase
awareness of the impact of MP policy decisions in the long term,
thus providing a learning platform for improved decision
making.
Simulation of a B2C E-Commerce Model of
Durable Consumption G oods
The work managed to develop an administrative tool that has the
purpose of facilitating the strategic decision-making knowing the
results towards the future of the actions, without having to invest
money, time, resources and personnel. Additionally the risk of
110 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
r Index
Jorge Eduardo Uribe
Manuela Velasquez
Patricia Ochoa
Isaac Dyner
idyner@ unalmed.edu.co
Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Carrera 80 #65 - 223
AA 1027 Medellin Colombia
Carlos Jaime Franco
cjfranco@ isa.com.co
Stella Maris Oggianu
soggianu@ mitedu
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
143 Albany Street 136B
Cambridge MA 02139 USA
Andrew Sause
David Kennedy Thompson
Kent F. Hansen
kfhansen@ mit.edu
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Dept of Nuclear Engineering
One Amherst Street Room E40-391
Cambridge MA 02139 USA
making erroneous decisions is diminished and it qualifies the
managers. It gives fast and easy answer to the day to day
questions of “What happens if...?” making it possible to play
with the company. The model developed “simulation of a B2C e-
commerce model of durable consumption goods” based on real
data obtained from Amazon.com, Buy.com and Egghead, allows
taking different decisions: price, site launching (budget and time
period), marketing expenses and selling of banner advertising.
The different decisions enable the trial and error development of
a profitable dynamic strategy. As you play with the model you
may experiment different scenarios and use variable sensibility.
The Dynamics of Strategic Electricity Trading
As electricity markets are turning competitive, uncertainty
becomes a major threat to trading companies. In this environment
a single strategic intent seems inappropriate as important
endogenous and exogenous variables are not predictable and may
have important negative impact on the company’s performance.
In this paper, we undertake Markides’ idea of a portfolio of
strategies (2000, 2001) and apply it to the electricity trading
industry. We explore the viability of this approach, that embeds
feedback thinking, by using a system dynamics model for a
hypothetical electricity market. We use Porter’s competitive
advantage framework and apply it to three generic strategies in
order to examine the idea of a portfolio of strategies. We describe
the system dynamics model that was developed for this purpose
and present simulation results.
Modeling the Dynamic C omplexity of the
Energy Policymaking Process
This paper presents a system dynamics approach to modeling
how electric energy policy is created and modified in democratic
nations. The selection of future generation capacity depends
upon the comparative economics between technologies. These
economics are subject to variation as societal concerns about
such issues as supply reliability, safety, and environmental
effects change. The model represents the issues that create
concern and the various segments of society that articulate the
concems. The model incorporates a representation of how the
political structure within the United States responds to concems
in terms of policy outputs that affect energy economics.
Decisions regarding capacity additions are based upon the most
profitable choice available to the utility at the moment of
decision. Demand is treated as an exogenous variable. Energy
production to meet the demand produces byproducts and
consequences that in tum feedback to the societal sector
concems.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 111
Author Index
Camilo Olaya
colaya@ uniandes.edu.co
University of Los Andes
Calle 116 No 43-50 apto 304
Bogota Colombia
Ginther Ossimitz
ossimitz@ bigfoot.com
University of Klagenfurt
Dept of Mathematics Education
Universitaetsstr 65
A-9020 Klagenfurt Austria
Peter A. Otto
potto@ nycap.rr.com
410 Terrace Road
Schenectady NY 12306 USA
Salvatore Belardo
s.belardo@ albany.edu
University at Albany, School of Bus.
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany NY 12222 USA
A System Dynamics Model for a New
Perspective on the C olombia Decentralisation
Process Reform
Since the mid 80's, Colombia has developed a full
decentralisation process in order to achieve better results in local
governments. However, the performance hasn't been the best.
Colombia shows a worrying situation, high levels of poverty,
violence, and corruption and a low quality of life. An additional
element is that the Colombian decentralisation model has been
dominated by an economical approach. This means that the
policies have been based on statistical and econometric analysis.
But it lacks a systemic view. The aim of this paper is to show
how system dynamics may complement the public policy
analysis in Colombia, in particular the intergovernmental and
decentralisation policy design. To achieve this purpose, the
project develops a system dynamics model around the problem
mentioned above, specifically its focuses in the financial
transfers policy and its problems associated with it.
Stock-Flow Thinking and Reading Stock-F low-
Related Graphs: An Empirical Investigation in
Dynamic Thinking A bilities
This paper reports on an empirical study of the ability of
university students to discern between stocks and flows. It is a
sequel to the "Bathtub Dynamics" study of Sweeney/Sterman
2000. The 154 subjects were given six different tasks. Some of
them required the ability to read and interpret time-graphs. The
findings were alarming. Generally the study showed severe
deficits in the ability to discern between stocks and flows. These
deficits did not depend upon whether the tasks required to
read/draw graphs or not. Graphs showing the development of
flows over time were interpreted by many subjects as if these
were graphs of stocks. The findings of this study motivated a
sequel study, which has been done in the Spring 2001 semester.
In this study the effect of a “crash course” in stockflow thinking
was tested in a pretest-posttest design. The results are
summarized in Kainz/Ossimitz (2002).
Design of Information Systems: Simulating the
Effectiveness of Knowledge Transfer
Throughout the System Analysis Phase
One of the critical issues determining the successful development
of information systems is what might be described as the
communication gap between the user group and the IS
development group that occurs during the system analysis phase.
112 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
This gap, we contend, stems from the lack of understanding of
one another’s domain knowledge without for example, a
common vocabulary it is difficult to exchange knowledge. This
article presents a system dynamics model that can simulate
various knowledge exchange scenarios, to help develop strategies
for an optimal knowledge transfer between these two groups.
Knowledge exchange scenarios are a function of both the
quantity (e.g. vocabulary) and quality (e.g. timeliness) of the
knowledge possessed by each group. The paper concludes with a
demonstration of different policy implementations and their
impact on the effectiveness of the knowledge transfer during the
systems analysis phase.
Ebru Ozdemir Dynamic Analysis of the Viability of Alternative
Energy Sources in Meeting the Electricity
Yaman Barlas Demand
ybarlas@ boun.edu.tr
Bogazici University
Dept of Industrial Engineering The viability of altemative and renewable energy sources in
80815 Bebek meeting the electricity demand in the long term has often been
'stanbul Turkey challenged. It has been argued that it is unrealistic and infeasible
M. Atilla Oner to meet a significant part of the electricity demand by alternative
maoner@ yeditepe.edu.tr sources, because such sources are not only uncertain and
Y editepe University inadequate, but they also exhibit high variability by nature. In
Pe MGC this research we build a dynamic model in order to investigate if
81120 Kayisdagi Istanbul Turkey alternative energy sources can play a viable role in meeting the
electricity demand in the long term. The model is constructed
and calibrated using relevant energy and electricity data of
Turkey. Different investment policies are investigated, based on
cost considerations, on environmental indicators and other
criteria. Results of different policy scenarios reveal the
importance and viability of alternative energy sources under
different conditions. We also investigate scenarios/policies that
encourage energy savings.
Erica Pagel Structural Changes in US Dairy Farming and
{p22@ cornell.edu the Role of Government Policy
Commell University
317A Warren Hall
Ithaca NY 14850 USA Agricultural policy faces conflicting social goals. On one hand,
efficient large-scale agriculture provides an adequate, low cost
Charles Nicholson food supply, but many Americans continue to idealize the
Secieen smaller family farm , believing that it promotes a democratic
346 Warren Hall society with strong values. The changing structure of agriculture
Ithaca NY 14850 USA from many small farms to fewer but larger farms is a concem
often expressed. Many causes have been suggested to explain the
ean ala decay in farm numbers and continual growth in average farm
Comell University size. These include technological changes, lower production
312 Warren Hall costs on larger operations, barriers to entry and expansion due to
Thea NY: 14850.US8 large required investments in land, buildings, and equipment,
opportunities for earning income by working off the farm, and
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 113
Author Index
Ozge Pala
o.pala@ nsm.kun.nl
Nijmegen University
Thomas van A quinostraat 5 0 77
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Etiénne A. J. A. Rouwette
e.rouwette@ maw.kun.nl
Nijmegen University
Methodology Department
PO Box 9104
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Jac A. M. Vennix
j.vennix@ nsm.kun.nl
University of Nijmegen
School of Mgt Dept of Methodology
Th van A quinostraat 5 0 74
PO Box 9108
6500 HK Nijmegen The Netherlands
Sang-hyun Park
alraview@ netian.com
Seung-jun Y eon
naege@ netian.com
Sang-wook Kim
sierra@ cbucc.chungbuk.ac.kr
Chungbuk National University
Dept of MIS
#48 Gaeshin Dong
Cheongju City
Chungbuk Korea 361-736
government policies that affect farm profitability. This research
examines these factors and their interactions in the dynamic
context of the U.S. dairy industry, with an emphasis on
government policy intervention.
The Process Model of Problem-Solving
Difficulty
Groups and organizations, or in general multi-actor decision-
making groups, frequently come across complex problems in
which neither the problem definition nor the interrelations of
parts that make up the problem are well defined. Members of a
decision-making group have disagreements on what the problem
is and/or how it should be solved. The study reported in this
paper represents a causal loop diagram which brings together
different causes that lead the group members into disagreement.
In this way features of individual and group decision-making can
be integrated in a coherent framework. By analyzing the problem
from a feedback point of view, we hope to clarify the self-
perpetuating quality of these problems. The main feedback loops
in this model were identified with the aim of pointing out key
issues to keep in mind for interventions in complex problems. A
small portion of this model was also quantified to show the
possible creation of a sustained disagreement situation.
Exploring the Dynamics of the Mobile Internet
Service Market in Korea
In recent years many research institutes have reported their
predictions on the growth of mobile Internet services,
announcing that the market would show explosive growth and
replace the wired Intemet service market rapidly. However, the
reality we are facing at present is quite different from their
expectations. The realized share of the mobile services in Korea
last year was only about one percent of the total network service
market. What are the reasons for the gap between the prospects
and the realities? Starting from this question, this paper attempts
some reasoning about why traditional number-crunching
methods are no longer appropriate for the forecast of newly
emerging markets and explores their generic pitfalls. As an
alternative, by introducing systems thinking from a structural
perspective, this paper presents examples of system dynamics
models at a meta level for the mobile Intemet service market in
Korea, followed by its rationale as a new tool for forecasting and
policy-making support.
114 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Jorge Andrick Parra
Valencia
japarra@ bumanga.unab.edu.co
Calle 9 No 23 55
Bucaramanga Colombia
Hugo Hernando Andrade Sosa
handrade@ uis.edu.co
Universidad Industrial de Santander
Esc Ingenieria de Sistemas e Inf
Cra 27 Calle 9
Bucaramanga Colombia
Jamshid Parvizian
japa@ cc.iutac.ir
Isfahan University of Technology
Isfahan 84156 Iran
A. Karimi-Tabar
Matteo Pedercini
sd122@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Dept of Information Science
Fantoft Studentby N-260
5075 Bergen Norway
(S)
A System Dynamics for Recognition of Other
Peoples' Perspective as Reinterpretation of the
Essential Assignment of the Systems Approach
The present paper proposes a system dynamics for recognition.
System dynamics has been considered a thinking technology of
the system approach to modeling and computer simulation. Its
use has been defined for several areas such as optimation,
planification, control, prospective, learning and representation.
This paper proposes and describe the process to define a
reference framing for a system dynamics that is presented for
recognition of other peoples’ perspective. This goal is defined in
a way to consider the recognition of the others’ perspectives the
fundamental goal of the system approach. The diversity of uses
of system dynamics defines researching areas related to the
research area of this work. A synthesis of the methodology and
some reflections about systemic technologies and _ their
instrumentalization (enframing) process, like a non-recognition
of the essential’s assigment of the systems approach, will be
presented.
State Policies on Self-Sufficiency in Agricultural
Section of Iran
A system dynamics approach is presented in this paper to study
the long-term effects of Iranian State policies to support
agriculture and gain self-sufficiency (SS) of products.
Agriculture is studied as one section of the whole national
economy. The self-sufficiency index is defined in terms of the
ability of the economy to domestically answer the demand for
food. Policies such as controlled exchange rate and fixed prices
have important effects on production and export of foods. These
policies are taken to support consumers and producers against
high prices, to increase the SS index and the nutrition rate. In the
model presented, the aim is to measure variables like export,
ICOR index, the ratio of investment to surplus, and SS index
against counter policies such as equilibrium prices and floating
exchange rates in long term. It is shown that recommended
policies to activate the whole economy are equally effective in
this special section.
The Impact of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic on the
Population A ge Structure of Zimbabwe
The HIV/AIDS multistage model presented here has been
expressly developed and adapted to the specific Zimbabwean
situation to evaluate the effects of the implementation of
different possible policies, which are intended to fight the virus
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 115
Author Index
Anastassios Perdicoulis
tasso@ utad.pt
Univ de Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro
Dept of Enviro & Biological
Engineerin
Apartado 202
5001-911 Vila Real Portugal
José Carlos Fernandes
fernandesze@ clix.pt
Camara Municipal de Vila Real
Av. Carvalho de Araujo
5000 Vila Real Portugal
Gloria Perez-Salazar
gperez@ campus.mty itesm.mx
ITESM Campus Monterrey
Dept of Industrial and Systems Eng
Av Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL Mexico
Rafael E. Bourguet
rbourgue@ campus.mty.itesm.mx
ITESM Campus Monterrey
Department of Systems Engineering
Av Garza Sada 2501 Sur
64849 Monterrey NL Mexico
diffusion, on the population as a whole and specifically on its age
distribution. Very interesting insights have been gained by
testing the model with different actual policies, specifically the
introduction of the HAART treatment, which is able to stretch
the expected lifetime of infected subjects and improve their life
conditions, and the introduction of Viramune/Nevirapina. The
results of these kinds of interventions have also been compared
with those of more soft oriented policies, such as sensitization or
information campaign, and the opportunity to integrate one with
each other has been evaluated. The resulting model behaviors in
these hypothetical scenarios have in some cases been
counterintuitive and ultimately lead to reflection on the recent
development of HIV/AIDS intemational agreements.
A Conceptual Model for the Municipality of
Vila Real
To manage present situations, such as housing, traffic,
employment and environmental quality, as well as to path a
sustainable future for the municipality, the town hall of Vila Real
and the University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro have jointly
launched a project to enhance decision-making at key processes
- namely strategic planning and management. The joint project is
structured along the classic “intelligence-design-choice” model
of decision-making, with slight modifications. The first phase of
the project is to describe the current situation in the municipality
by producing a conceptual system model, and simultaneously
seek problem situations and opportunities. The second phase
involves a numerical version of the system model, still
descriptive in nature, and the creation of possible development or
management scenarios. The third phase involves the simulation
of these scenarios and the selection of the best one(s) against a
set of community-wide value criteria. This last phase also
features a global review of the project.
The Challenge of Teaching System Dynamics in
ithe ITESM System: A Proposal for a Teaching-
Learning Method
This paper addresses the didactic of the course of System
Dynamics after a redesign process at ITESM Campus Monterrey.
Design elements, educative intention, general objective, didactic
strategy, contents, evaluation system, and information
technology in use are discussed. Implementation has been done
using a technological platform based on Lotus Notes / Learning
Space. Qualitative results of implementation are presented
indicating the advantages in both directions: (1) leaming by the
students and (2) teaching-practice transferring by the teachers.
116 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Lars Odd Petersen Reorganizing the Clinical Treatment of Stroke
lop@ dsi.dk Patients
Danish Inst of Health Services Rsch
Dampfaergevej 22
2100 Copenhagen OE Denmark With the aim of improving patient outcome, the County of Funen
- after adoption of a new hospital structure in May 2001 -
decided that stroke treatment in future should be carried out in 2
stroke units and one rehabilitation unit. The County has a total
catchment area of approx. 470,000 inhabitants. Stroke treatment
has so far been carried out in 8 different hospital units in the
county. In June 2001, a working group with a multidisciplinary
representation from the units involved, including general practice
and the municipalities, was set up with the task of making
proposals as to how treatment should be organised and which
capacity the new units should have. Altogether, 16 different
departments were involved in the work. This poster shows how
ideas from system dynamics and the simulation program I’ think
was used to help the working group in their considerations.
Lazaros V. Petrides The Economics of a Biting Minimum Wage
Ipetrides@ cwcom.net
University of Salford Conventional wisdom as regards the effects of a biting minimum
Ci for OR and Applied S
asa ne 5 ah Ue eee wage (MW) is challenged in this paper through the findings of a
system dynamics model. Given a number of different plausible
Brian C. Dangerfield assumptions, a number of counterintuitive results are found to
b.c.dangerfield@ salford.ac.uk : F
University of Salford emerge such as a longer term permanent increase in employment
Centre for OR & Applied Statistics levels, a greater total number of businesses in the economy
Maxwell Building The Crescent associated with lower total employment levels than originally,
Salford Mo 4WT. UK and a trade-off in the wellbeing and the employment levels
between those firms whose cost structure was affected by the
MW and the unaffected firms. Finally, two variables that are
normally considered to be irrelevant to the investigation of the
economic effects of a biting MW, namely consumption spending
and fixed costs per business, come to the forefront of the
analysis.
David G. Pfeiffer (S) Symphony of Eigenvalues; A Prototype for
pfei0017@ yahoo.com Sonification in System Dynamics
3342 Bay Rd South Drive
Indianapolis IN 46240 USA
Sonification is the use of nonspeech audio to convey information
Trond Lossius and can enhance the ability of system dynamics in the analysis of
lossius@ bek.no relationships between structure and behavior. Today’s desktop
ae computing power allows users of software such as MAX and
undtsgt 55 ‘
N-5004 Bergen Norway MSP to create a variety of sounds whose parameters are
determined by the mappings of imported data. The prototype
discussed used pitch, timbre and amplitude to describe the values
and first and second order differences, respectively, of the state
variables. A two-parameter model of Hares and Lynx
demonstrated the sonic effects, while another two-parameter
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 117
Author Index
Roman Pixell
roman@ pixell.net
John Pourdehnad
jp2consult@ aol.com
University of Pennsylvania
Ackoff Center, Towne Building
220 South 33rd Street Room 250
Philadelphia PA 19104-6315 USA
Kambiz E. Maani
kmaani@ auckland.ac.nz
University of Auckland
MSIS Department
Private Bag 92019
Auckland New Zealand
Habib Sedehi
hsedehi@ freemail.it
University of Rome
Faculty of Communication Science
Rome Italy
model of Alcohol and Cells featured the addition of sonified
eigenvalues, illustrating the combined fields’ potential to provide
an early waming detection to changes in feedback loop
dominance. The prototype’s ability to express 10 parameters of
interest with just 4 sounds should appeal to the fields of business,
education, and the arts.
Market Model Design and Systems Thinking as
Decision Support: Public Wireless LAN
Market Dynamics as a Case Study
Wireless computer networks have rapidly achieved a wide
market acceptance since 1999. Until recently, telephone systems
have been the unchallenged bearers of public data traffic in a
mobile context, but lately questions have been raised about
possibilities of using alternative technologies for data transfer;
the benefits of a third generation mobile infrastructure have even
questioned by proponents of public wireless computer networks.
In this paper, the evolution of a fictive market for public wireless
networks is modelled in a system dynamics interface. The
research purpose is to investigate how a given performance
measure - in this case cash flow - is affected by different
parameters in a causal model, for public wireless computer
networks, in order to visualise the actual system. The model is
intended to help the explanation, understanding and possibly
even prediction of the market for public wireless computer
networks, by enabling the testing of possible scenarios.
System Dynamics and Intelligent A gent-Based
Simulation: Where is the Synergy?
System dynamics also allows managers to make their
understanding of business problems explicit and improve upon
them. This occurs by modelling structures that underlie
behaviour of systems. While system dynamics acknowledges the
critical role of personal and organizational mental models as the
foundation or key influencers of structure, it does not explicitly
model mental models. In contrast, in Agent-Based Modelling
(ABM), organizations are modelled as a system of
semiautonomous decision-making parts (purposeful individuals)
called agents. Experience shows that even a simple agent-based
model can exhibit complex behaviour pattems and provide
valuable information about the dynamics of real world systems.
In this paper the two different simulation approaches to learning
effectiveness, i.e., agent-based modelling and system dynamics,
are compared conceptually and the potential synergy between
them is discussed. This paper is theoretical and exploratory in
nature. Further studies are needed to provide empirical evidence.
118 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
John H. Powell Setting Strategic Agendas: The Use of
Bath University Qualitative Methods in Highly Politicized
School of Management C
Bath BA2 TAY UK ontexts
R. Geoffrey Coyle In the early phases of using simulation models to support
geofi.coyle@ btinternet.com strategic decision-making, the emphasis is on expressing
S Cleveumt Raat, information and physical flows. While this is appropriate for
Wiltshire SN6 8BN UK many managed systems, we suggest that it is inappropriate for a
large class of problems involving the motivations and powers of
agents in the system. In such highly politicised systems it is
necessary to take the political aspects of power into account at an
early stage in the analysis. We present an approach to this class
of problems, using a qualitative procedure based on influence
diagrams. This method has been extensively and successful use
in consultancy to study the motivations and powers of agents and
thereby produces naturally an output directed at action planning
at the strategic level. While it is complementary to numerical
system dynamics approaches, it is more successful in deriving
components of strategic action directly from analysis.
Davide Provenzano (S) An Artificial Stock Market in a System
davidepro@ yahoo.com Dynamics A pproach
Via Ammiraglio Rizzo No 53
90142 Palermo Italy
In order to model the stock market behavior and characterize
asset price and wealth dynamics arising from interactions of
heterogeneous agents, this paper studies the price dynamics
induced by two of the most commonly used financial trading
strategies. It shows how these strategies amplify noise, and cause
phenomena such as excess and cluster volatility. Since this kind
of study starts from the analysis of trading strategies, it follows
the bottom-up approach that is typical of agent-based financial
markets. Investors’ trading rules are modeled more or less as the
strategies are used in the real world. In closing, some of the
questions centred on market stability will be discussed. No
attempt has been made to make forecasts, which are not trivial
for this kind of model. To model market behavior and trading
strategies, system dynamics methodology has been used.
Weishuang Qu A Model for Evaluating the Policy Impact on
wqu@ threshold21.com Poverty
Millennium Institute
1117 N 19th Street se 4 ‘ .
Suite 900 For decades poverty reduction in developing countries has been
Arlington VA 22209-1708 USA one of the most challenging tasks for the policy maker. Recent
trends show the income distribution has become more biased
toward the rich. This paper reports on efforts to develop a
Gerald O. Barney
info@ threshold21.com
Millennium Institute dynamic model to evaluate the impact of altemative policies
1117 N 19th St Suite 900 focused on the poor, including such common ideas as providing
Arlington VA 22209 USA
them free health care and reducing their income tax obligation.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 119
Author Index
Patricia M. Quinn
pm_quinn@ yahoo.com
71 Snowberry Road
Malta NY 12020 USA
Min Li
mli.phd2001@ london.edu
London Business School
PhD Programme
Regent's Park
London NW1 4SA UK
The model measures the impact of a particular policy on the Gini
coefficient or the number of households below a poverty line.
The purpose for creating the model is to possibly develop a
poverty reduction sector to include in the T21 (Threshold 21)
National Development Model.
Nation State Food Security: A Simulation of
Food Production, Population C onsumption, and
Sustainable Developmetn
The goals of the present paper are: (1) to develop and evaluate a
system dynamics food security model based upon a combination
of Malthusian, neoclassical, and distributionist methodologies as
they are used to study nation-state food security behavior in a
complex global arena; and (2) to infer from the evaluation of this
model some implications, or insights, for food security policies.
Our research is heavily grounded in the theory of nonlinear
dynamics and feedback control originally developed in
mathematics, physics, and engineering. Utilizing system
dynamics methods and tools, we seek to explain interactions
between nation states by phenomena such as their prior behavior
within the structure of interrelated political, economic, and
ecological systems. Because leaming about these complex
systems requires more than technical tools to create mathematical
models, dynamic simulation will be utilized to bridge the
physical and technical sciences with the cognitive psychology,
economics, and environmental specializations of the social
sciences.
120 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
or Index
Hazhir Rahmandad (S)
hazhir@ mitedu
Nelson P. Repenning
nelsonr@ mit.edu
John Sterman
jsterman@ mitedu
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
Veerendra K. Rai
vkrai@ pune.tes.co.in
Tata Consultancy Services
54B Hadapsar Industrial Estate
Pune 411 013 India
Veerendra K. Rai
vkrai@ pune.tes.co.in
Tata Consultancy Services
54B Hadapsar Industrial Estate
Pune 411 013 India
Learning from Experience with Delayed
Feedback
Many important settings in individual and organizational life
involve allocating resources between different types of activities
with different delays between allocation and results. Empirical
studies show that learning is difficult in dynamic systems and
people often fail to leam from experience in the presence of
delays. Understanding the processes that hinder learning from
experience is central to improving leaming and decisionmaking.
We use a formal model to examine the effect of time delays on
leaming from experience. The model represents a decision-maker
engaged in a continuous time allocation task who leams from his
performance as he tries to improve the payoff determined by his
own actions. Our analysis shows that in an easy learning task
where the payoff landscape is smooth and has only a single peak,
we can still observe sub-optimal performance. Moreover, the
decision-maker can leam to believe that the sub-optimal
performance is really the best she can do.
Systems Approach to Business Rules
In the traditional way of information system development
everything is put into code. Every time a business event occurs
the decision-maker needs to look into the ‘code’ for business
tules to take a decision with respect to the business event.
Therefore, access to the business rules for the decision-maker is a
problem. Every decision-maker may not and need not be a
software professional. The primary motive behind the business
rules approach is to separate business logic from program logic.
Software engineering professionals are addressing these
concems. To understand the business rules approach in a holistic
manner and make it an effective tool for decision-making,
software engineering tools are not enough when the motive is to
understand the business process and business dynamics and to
help decision-makers take a decision using business rules. This
study uses systems thinking principles to address these issues. It
uses cognitive modeling and interpretive structural modeling to
understand the business process.
Dynamics of Schedule Pressure in Software
Projects
This paper studies the dynamics of schedule pressure in software
projects. It constructs a system dynamics model of the software
development process, which includes the following modules:
Flow of Work, Work Being Done, Inspection, Fault Detection
and Rework, and Supplementary Variables. It includes the
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 121
Author Index
Biswajit Mahanty
bm@ hijli.iitkgp.ernet.in
Indian Institute of Technology
Dept of Industrial Eng and Mgt
Kharagpur 721 302 India
Vittorio Raimondi
vraimondi.phd2001@london.edu
64 Riverside Close
London E5 9SR UK
Ruben Ramboer
ruben.ramboer@ vub.ac.be
Free University of Brussels
Dept of Business Statistics and OR
Pleinlaan 2 M233
1050 Brussels Belgium
Cathy Macharis
cathy.macharis@ vub.ac.be
Free University of Brussels
Dept of Business Economics
Pleinlaan 2 M233
1050 Brussels Belgium
module ‘Effect of Schedule Pressure’ and integrates it with the
rest of the model. The model presents the results of two sets of
schedule-related policies of a system dynamics model. The first
set of policies that pertain to the base model does not consider
the effect of schedule pressure on the staff productivity and
errorproneness while the second set of policies pertaining to the
revised model does. This study finds that effect of schedule
pressure on software project is non-linear and dynamics of
schedule pressure is intricately related to decision making
process of the project manager, thus, making software projects
management complex and counterintuitive.
Critical Drivers of Firms' Performance: A
Journey Through the Insights and Results
Generated by a System Dynamics Project
When business managers drive a company "off the cliff,"
accelerating as they go, it's a tragic and puzzling event. When
they are cheered on by investment analysts saying, "More, more,
more!" one can't help but ask: how did they all get it so wrong?
The case of Exodus Communications Inc illustrates how this can
happen and how clear dissonance can emerye between critical
value drivers and the targets pursued by management. The
system dynamics technique illustrated in this paper provides
insights into how management can better anticipate significant
and critical shifts in the metrics they need to watch. It also
illustrates how a system dynamics approach can lead to
exceptional insights in the data collection phase, when the model
is still on paper.
The Introduction of Mobility Rights: A First
Exploration Through the Use of a System
Dynamics Model
In this paper the socio-economic effectiveness of transferable
mobility rights will be analysed through the use of a system
dynamics model. Transferable mobility rights are an innovative
solution for mobility problems. The aim is to give a restrictive
amount of rights of mobility to the citizens in order to cope with
the external effects of transport, such as congestion and
emissions. The rights are transferable and as such can also have a
redistributional effect. Economical, social, and ecological goals
are coming here together. In order to see the complex interaction
between these three dimensions and the effect of the introduction
of the system of transferable mobility rights a system dynamics
model is developed. This model will allow simulation of the
impact of alternative policy scenarios on the system. These
alternatives include the various possible designs of the
transferable mobility rights system.
122 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
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Stig Rée New Corporate Strategies: A Comparative
Teemanase ett School Social Cybernetics Analysis of Nokia and
openhagen Business Schoo! o28,
Rosen Alle 3 British Telecom
DK 3500 Aerloese Copenhagen
Denmark In the theoretical discussions on various new global strategies,
cultural, networked and innovative ones are complementing or
substituting the traditional strategies often focusing on best
practice, differentiation, core businesses, economics of scale ...
In the traditional methodologies for doing strategic analysis the
head problem was to make a constructive alignment between
resources, businesses and organization, thereby gaining
competitive advantage, control and coordination for the
corporation in question. By analyzing and comparing the
character of management processes used by two different well
known global players within the teleindustry, British Telecom
and Nokia, the article tries to find out, if other methodological
points of departure could be more convenient and constructive.
In conclusion, social cybemetics analysis, with its focus on
causes for entropy, self-sustaining and reinforcing mental
models in use, and systems dynamics ... nowadays is often a
better guide in the global oriented strategic work than more
traditional structural oriented analyses.
David Rees Use of Financial System Dynamics Models in
drees@ hpls.co.nz Local Government
High Performance Leaming Systems
EO et New Zealand While much has been written about the insights that SD
modeling can bring to the understanding of complex systems less
has been written about the value of SD models as interactive
communication devices. The work outlined below focused on
this communication aspect of SD models by taking the standard
accounting data from the organisations’ financial spreadsheets
and incorporating them into a model that captures the key
dynamics of their long-term financial strategy. Built with the
assistance of the accounting staff, the model translated
accounting rules into stock/flow language utilising ithink
software. The software enabled managers and councillors to
explore the consequences of different assumptions and financial
strategies. The end result was a much greater understanding of
the dynamics of financial performance and an awareness of the
levers that influence financial performance. This work is
illustrated with extracts from the model used.
George P. Richardson Misattribution in Welfare Dynamics: The
gpr@ albany edu Puzzling Dynamics of Recidivism
University at Albany
Rocket tenCollege A recent two-year model-based study of the dynamics of welfare
Albany NY 12222 USA reform in the United States involved more than sixty experts
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 123
Author Index
David F. Andersen
david.andersen@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Rockefeller College
Milne 315B
Albany NY 12222 USA
YiJung Wu
Richard F. Richkowski
fr6733@ usma.edu
US Military Academy
Dept of Systems Engineering
West Point NY 10996 USA
Willie J. McFadden
willie-mefadden@ usma.edu
US Military Academy
Dept of Systems Engineering
Bldg 745 Mahan Hall
West Point NY 10996 USA
William L. Ratliff
ratliffwl@ hqda army.mil
Wade Yamada
Samantha Rockey
samantha.rockey@ sabreweries.com
South A frican Breweries
PO Box 782178
Sandton 2146
South A frica
Helen Mastrantonis
Denise Smith
Darryl Wright
from three New Y ork State counties. The initiative resulted in the
creation, analysis, and use of a dynamic computer simulation
model of more than 400 equations, and the implementation of
policy insights from the study. A crucial insight from that large
study is captured in this presentation in a tiny model with
apparently wide, generic applicability. The presentation will give
the context of the work and then explore the puzzling,
counterintuitive dynamics of this little generic structure, leading
to policy implications and a set of insights about recidivism in
complex social support systems.
ATOMM: Army Transformation Officer
Management Model
©)
As the United States Army transforms from a legacy force to the
army that fights as part of the future combat system, new
methods for modeling and managing officer strength are needed.
Currently the Army Personnel Office uses spreadsheet-based
models to project and monitor the officer strength of the Army
for the execution year and six years into the future. In order to
streamline officer strength management and analysis it is
recommended that a robust model based on system dynamics
should be adopted. The current spreadsheet-based models are not
very flexible and do not allow for quick and timely analysis on
all officer strength management issues raised by the Department
of the Army staff. This research will show the advantages of
using system dynamics concepts to model officer strength by
outlining a well-defined model which provides the analyst with
the capability to compare the effects of proposed policy
altematives.
Information Systems Implementation, Change
Model
This paper describes how systems thinking provided a
framework for the development of a Systems Implementation
Change Model (SICM). After a period of human resources
functional integration, South African Breweries implemented
SAP Human Resources as a means of ensuring consistent and
real time human resource information that could be used
strategically by line managers. As the implementation of SAPHR
was seen as a change management intervention rather than an
information technology intervention, the implementation process,
namely the SICM, was based on John Kotter’s eight steps for
successful change (Kotter, 1998). This Systems Implementation
Change Model draws its key assumptions and principles from
system dynamics thinking and has built into the model the
capacity for continuous organic growth. Currently this model is
used for all systems implementations in SAB (South Africa).
124 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
A. Georges L. Romme
a.g.lromme@ kub.nl
Tilburg University
Faculty of Econ and Bus Admin
PO Box 90153
5000 LE Tilburg The Netherlands
Mark Rowland
mark rowland@ au.pweglobal.com
PwC Consulting
201 Sussex Street
Sydney NSW 2000 Australia
The Educational Value of Microworld
Simulation
Microworlds as computer-based simulations can be important
tools to support learning. In this respect, microworld simulation
has been said to build substantial synergy between leaming to
think in systems frameworks and leaming to deal with the
complexity of actual settings. Since the first microworlds were
introduced, their educational value has been accepted as an
article of faith. In this paper the implications and results of
adopting microworlds are explored in terms of student learning,
educational approach and course design. These implications are
illustrated with quantitative and qualitative questionnaire data
obtained from courses in undergraduate Business programs as
well as a post-experience MBA-program. In general, these data
suggest that leaming processes can be deepened and accelerated
by creating effective combinations of lectures, cases, readings
and microworlds.
Community Dynamics: Tools to Understand
the Value Drivers of a Community
To make reasonable strategic decisions within a company you
need to understand the value drivers. PwC Consulting uses a
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 125
Author Index
Daniel J arosch
daniel jarosch@ au.pweglobal.com
PwC Consulting
201 Sussex Street
NSW Sydney 2000 Australia
Oscar Rubiano Ovalle
Universidad del Valle
Escuela de Ing. Industrial
Cali Colombia
Adolfo Crespo Marquez
adolfo.crespo@ esi.us.es
Universidad de Sevilla
Dept Organizacion Industrial
Camino de los Descubrimientos s/n
41092 Sevilla Spain
Rafael Ruiz-Usano
usano@ us.es
Miguel Angel Muiioz
Jose Manuel Framinan
Pedro Moreu
Jose M. Leon
M.A. Duran
Universidad de Sevilla
Escuela Superior de Ingenieros
Camino de los Descubrimientos sn
41092 Sevilla Spain
systems approach to understand the value drivers of a business.
Understanding the value drivers allows you to understand the
business system. Within a business community the complicating
factor is the interaction between businesses in the community.
Understanding the community drivers is necessary to manage the
community and develop a sustainable structure. To understand
the community dynamics you need to understand the feedback
relationships inherent within the community. To deepen our
understanding of the dynamics of a community a quantified
model can be developed. A computer simulation of the
community dynamics is a powerful tool to explain the benefits of
the community to the participants and also a powerful learning
tool and change agent. As a summary, the stages of development
of a Community Dynamics model are shown.
The Effectiveness of Using E-C ollaboration
Tools in the Supply Chain: An Assessment
Study with System Dynamics
Developments in information technologies in recent years have
enabled major advances in electronic commerce and e-commerce
is growing at a very fast pace. Although business-to-consumer
(B2C) e-commerce seems to be slowdown due to economic
conditions, business-to-business (B2B) ecommerce still
represents the next generation of business automation. Taking
advantage of new technologies, is nowadays an opportunity, but
will be a must in the future. Internet e-collaboration tools show
up in this new era, and besides playing a role of “value creation
enabler’, also generate a wide range of “new business and
market complexities” that companies have to face. This paper
presents a classification of “managerial spaces” where multiple
trading partners share critical information using e-collaboration
tools and assesses the possible local and global impact on the
supply chain (SC) performance. This is made by means of a
conception of a supply chain model and a simulation study with
System Dynamics.
Modeling and Simulation of a Manufacturing
Line in an Automotive Components Plant
The aim of this research is the modelling and simulation of an
Integrated Manufacturing Line which produces the third idle gear
to be assembled in the final product, an automotive speed gear
box. The manager of the plant wanted to know the maximum
capacity of the line and to make some process improvements
leading to a better behaviour of the system. The model
126 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Adolfo Crespo Marquez
adolfo.crespo@ esi.us.es
Universidad de Sevilla
Dept Organizacion Industrial
Camino de los Descubrimientos s/n
41092 Sevilla Spain
Alexander V. Ryzhenkov
ryzhenko@ ieie.nsc.ru
Russian Academy of Sciences
Inst for Economics and Industrial Eng
17 Academician Lavrantiev Avenue
Novosibirsk 630090 Russia
Michael S. Saboe
saboem@ tacom.army.mil
US Amy
Attn: Assoc Director
AMSTA TR_R/265
6501 E Eleven Mile
Warren MI 48397-5000 USA
Patrice Salini
patrice.salini@ inrets.fr
INRETS
2 Avenue Malleret Joinville
F-94114 Arcueil France
(S)
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
constructed using system dynamics, in a discrete line, has been
validated and is being successfully applied to the plant. (A
previous simulation study was conducted using an interactive
discrete simulation software.)
A Historical Fit of a Model of the US Long
Wave
This paper refines a theoretical model of capitalist reproduction.
A compact state-space form of this model defines a hypothetical
Law of capital accumulation. The state variables are the unit
wage, employment ratio, gross unit rent, man-made capital-
output ratio, natural capital-output ratio, indicated natural capital-
output ratio, and unit depreciation of the natural capital. An
application of an extended Kalman filtering to the US
macroeconomic data 1958-1991 identifies unobservable
components of this Law. It is shown that long wave is a
dominant non-equilibrium quasi-periodic behavioural pattem of
the US capital accumulation. Evaluating the historical fit through
appropriate summary statistics and long-range forecasting
strengthen confidence in the model.
Software Technology Transition Model:
Dynamical System Model
This paper considers an information theoretic and dynamical
systems technology transfer model. The model enables decision-
makers to “engineer” resource and risk programmatic issues.
Analysis with the model enables prediction and prescriptive
action for a research or program manager. The model deals with
entropy as defined in information theory. The TechTx Basic
Entropy model addresses macro level trends of a technology at
the community level. The dynamical systems TechTx Entropy
Feedback model is based on non-linear control theory. The paper
develops the state quantities to develop state functions for
analysis of an evolutionary technology process. This summary
paper focuses on the elements required to model the technology
transfer process. The result is a rich set of analytical tools
previously unavailable to be used for policy and programmatic
issues to reduce risk, increase efficiency and accelerate
maturation of a desired technology.
SIMTRANS (Freight Transportation
Simulation Model)
The authors have been asked by the French Ministry of Transport
to develop a system dynamics model which could help analyze
127
Michel Karsky
Kbsfr@ noos.fr
KBS (Knowledge Based Simulation)
340 rue Saint-Jacques
75005 Paris France
Rogerio Fonseca Santovito
santovito@ hotmail.com
University of Sao Paulo
Real Estate Res Group Polytech Sc
Rua Abilio Ramos 291 Macedo
Guarulhos
Sao Paulo Brazil CEP 07113-090
Max Kummerow
kummerowm@ chs.curtin.edu.au
Curtin University
GPO Box U1987
Perth Australia 6845
Claudio Tavares de Alencar
Ali K. Saysel
ali@ ifi.uib.no
University of Bergen
Dept of Information Science
Hermann Fossgt 6
5020 Bergen Norway
the dynamics of the French freight transportation market (road -
rail - river). A little later, the model was modified and used to
analyze the possible consequences, on that same market, of the
Kyoto proposed emission credit policy. Both models are
explained here, but in addition we show how an « ex post »
causal loop analysis can help, in this context, to have experts
understand better the numerous and often contradictory
simulation results.
Office Market Indexes Development Using
System Dynamics Models
This paper presents the basis of a Real Estate Office Market
indexes development, with its theoretical framework validation
been made through the use of a System Dynamics model. The
well recognized cyclicality of office markets, along with
overbuild as a widespread problem, suggests a fundamental
causal mechanism in the office market process itself. Being
perceived that information lag is a major variable of the system,
the use of System Dynamics models allows a_ better
understanding of the function of each piece of information in the
process. The structure and characteristics of each type of
necessary information are analyzed. Database completeness and
definition problems of the indexes already produced by
developers are addressed in the discussion. Results indicate that
information should be produced in a way to reflect the true
current state of the system. Furthermore, an attempt to expand
the model and the construction of a widespread database are
proposed.
Feedback Complexity of Waterlogging and
Salinization on Irrigated Lands
In this paper, we introduce a dynamic simulation model, which
represents the major feedback mechanisms in salinization of
irrigated lands. The purpose of this model is to provide a
comprehensive picture of the problem. The unit of analysis is not
the farm-level, but the whole basin where irrigated lands may
expand annually. Model analyses provide an assessment of
relative efficiencies of water management and drainage
alternatives under changing loop dominance. It reveals that the
benefit from drainage diminishes as the drainage efficiency is
increased. This calls for improved water management strategies
rather than the drainage alternative. The model illustrates the
condition when reinforcing feedback loops dominate and
salinization reach alarming levels. Under this condition,
increased drainage yields increased salinization, which is an
128 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Burkhard Schade
burkhard.schade@ iww.uni-karlsruhe.de
University of Karlsruhe
Inst for Economic Policy Research
IWW
Kollegium am Schloss Bau IV
76128 Karlsruhe Germany
Wolfgang Schade
wolfgang.schade@ iww.uni-karlsruhe.de
University of Karlsruhe
Inst for Economic Policy Research
IWW
Kollegium am Schloss Bau IV
76128 Karlsruhe Germany
Nadine Schieritz
nadines@ is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de
Mannheim University
Industrieseminar Schloss $215
D-68131 Mannheim Germany
Heinz G. Schild
heinz.schild@ dr-schild-consultants.com
Hopmannstrasse 6
D-53177 Bonn Germany
unprecedented result. In future research, this model can be
improved to analyze the affect of different water management
strategies and farmers’ decision mules on salinization.
Evaluating Economic Feasibility of
Environmentally Sustainable Scenarios by a
Backcasting Approach with ESCOT (Economic
assessment of Sustainability PoliCies Of
Transport)
The aim of ESCOT (model for economic assessment of
sustainability policies of transport) is to describe a development
path towards a sustainable transport system in Germany and to
assess its economic impacts as part of the project on
environmentally sustainable transport (EST) of the OECD.
ESCOT contributes to the backcasting strategy of EST from an
identified EST scenario for 2050 to today's situation, ESCOT
offers the opportunity to derive the macroeconomic development,
considering first-round effects that are in case of a path towards
sustainability mostly govemed by negative influences like higher
prices and restrictions on the demand side. But it also considers
structural changes including secondary effects that occur only in
the long run. Secondary effects arise because transport is highly
interrelated with other social systems. This ability makes ESCOT
a powerful instrument for the assessment of large ecological
changes.
Integrating System Dynamics and Agent-Based
Modeling
This paper presents an approach to integrate the system dynamics
and the agent-based modeling techniques. After reviewing the
fundamental principles of the two modeling approaches, an
agent-based supply chain simulation model is developed. The
model consists of two levels of aggregation; on the macro level a
discrete agent-based modeling approach is applied, on the micro,
the agent level system dynamics is used to model the agents’
intemal cognitive structure. The paper concludes with first
preliminary simulation results and aspects of future research.
UML and System Dynamics Modeling
System dynamics models are only rarely used to solve practical
problems in commercial enterprises and public administrations.
This situation would seem to arise from two causes. One has to
do with the development of mental models in general and the
other with the way in which system dynamics problems are
tackled. This paper will discuss to what extent Unified Modeling
Language (UML) could overcome or at least minimize these two
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 129
Author Index
Markus J. Schmidt
markus.schmidt@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
Business Dynamics Practice
One Memorial Drive
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
Michael Shayne Gary
shayneg@ agsm.edu.au
University of New South Wales
Australian Graduate School of Mgt
Sydney NSW 2052 Australia
Markus Schwaninger
markus.schwaninger@ unisg.ch
University of St Gallen
Institute of Management
Dufourstrasse 48
CH-9000 St Gallen Switzerland
problems in deploying system dynamics models more widely.
Some years ago UML was standardized by combining several
methodologies all concerned with the processes and tools
involved in software development. By now there are computer
systems which facilitate working with UML or are based on it.
The body of people who understand the concept and are well
versed in its artefacts is being widened daily by including UML
in the cumicula of all relevant educational and training
establishments.
Guiding New Product Development and Pricing
in an Automotive High Tech SME
This paper describes the use of system dynamics in combination
with conjoint analysis to assist a high tech SME in evaluating
policy options in a context where customer preferences were
critical to strategic decision making. Conjoint analysis served an
important role in eliciting customers’ multi-attribute choice
preferences, and had a significant impact on both the structure
and parameterization of the final simulation model. The
combination of methods was quite powerful in this case and we
feel could be successfully applied to a broad class of problems
where behavioral policies of decision makers include tradeoffs
among multiple attributes. The alternative is to use system
dynamics as a stand-alone approach and employ formulations
that are not empirically derived or grounded in the extensive
choice theory literature. We suggest this alternative is not viable
when choice preferences are important for guiding strategic
decisions, and more generally we contend that appropriately
integrating relevant methods can substantially improve our
system dynamics models and policy analysis.
Short- Versus Long-Term Dynamics: The
Example of Ecological Management
The natural environment has become a public issue of high
priority. One of the great challenges to the management of firms
today is achieving a balance between the economic, social and
ecological dimensions. Managers and organizations are learning
that dealing with ecological issues seriously is part of their
responsibility. In this paper, the inherent rationality of an
ecologically oriented approach to management is highlighted.
For this purpose, a conceptual framework for a comprehensive
fitness of organizations is presented. Based on this framework
and on case studies in small businesses a simulation model has
been developed. The structure of this model is outlined. Then, on
the basis of simulation experiments, several aspects of ecological
management are discussed. The focus is on tradeoffs between
130 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
thor Index
short- and longer term decisions, as well as the role of pre-
control, and the vulnerability of one-sided strategies are
discussed.
Rainer Schwarz An Elementary Dynamic Model of a Small
schwarz@ tu-cottbus.de Start-Up Firm
Brandenburg U of Tech at Cottbus
PSF 10 13 44 3 P ‘
03013 Cottbus Germany A system dynamics model of a small start-up firm is built. It
(S) regards assumptions, key variables and causal relations as
Frank Schéneborn described in the business economics literature. The main
frank schoeneborn@ de.heidelberg.com
HeldelberuerD fuck maschinen AG motivation for building this model was to bring a dynamic
eidelberger Druckmaschinen . . . . . . " .
Mgt Accounting & Control Systems perspective into university education in the field of business
Kurfuersten-A nlage 52-60 economics, especially management accounting and control
D-69115 Heidelberg Genmany systems. Some special assumptions and parameters reflect the
specificity of a real start-up firm. The results of the simulation
runs with the model show the same growth patterns as have been
observed in reality during the first three years of the firm’s
existence. The model can help the entrepreneur in understanding
growth paths in the next years.
Shougin Shen A System Dynamics Modeling for Sustainable
reid@ cma zju.edu.cn Growth in China
Zhejiang University
p eee Most of the developing countries including China are faced with
Hangzhou 310027 China the problem that how to allocate its limited resource properly to
make its economy grows continuously. In this paper, the system
ae doen dynamics methodology is induced to solve the problem facing
Qingrui Xu China. Based on the deep discussion of the interactive
sbaxugr@ dial.zju.edu.cn mechanism and interrelations among S&T, education and
Zhejiang University economy systems, and by SD modeling and simulation, this
School of Management : <
Yuquan Campus study gave out the policy advice. For example, It would be a
Hangzhou 310027 China more harmonious strategy in which both input of S&T and
education increase at logarithm and education input ahead about
10 years of S&T input.
Shougin Shen Two Strategies for High-Tech Industry
reid@ cma.zju.edu.cn Development: Lessons from China
Zhejiang University
vies Coes High-tech industry has grown very fast these several years in
Hangzhou 310027 China China, especially in the eastem coast cities like Shanghai and
Loo, Shenzen, and the capital, Beijing. The high rate of growth of the
ce dycen high-tech industry has brought huge benefits to China’s
Zhejiang University economic condition. The most eminent point shown in the recent
School of Management several years is giving large impact to the exports of Chinese
Heoenac oe? kina goods. The weight of high-tech products in the total Chinese
export goods has risen very fast in comparison with other export
goods in the last three years. The high rate of growth of high-tech
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 131
Author Index
Jingxin Xu
elexujx@ nus.edu.sg
National University of Singapore
EE Dept
Singapore 119260
Shougin Shen
reid@ cma.zju.edu.cn
Zhejiang University
Dept of Finance
Yuquan Campus
Hangzhou 310027 China
Jingjiang Liu
liujingjiang@ cma.zju.edu.cn
Zhejiang University
Research Ctr for Innovation & Dev
Yuquan Campus
Hangzhou 310027 China
Qingrui Xu
sbaxuqr@ dial.zju.edu.cn
Zhejiang University
School of Management
Yuquan Campus
Hangzhou 310027 China
Dennis Sherwood
dennis@ silverbulletmachine.com
Silver Bullet Machine
Manufacturing Co
Church Bam
Braboume Kent TN25 SLR UK
industry also offers a positive influence on the structural change
of the industry - this is one of the important missions facing
China. This comparative study focuses on several developed
areas. Two paths of high-tech industry development were
studied. The balance of resource allocation between these two
paths is extremely important for sustainable competence leverage
and sustainable competitive advantages.
Dynamics of High Technology Industry
Development in China
The dynamics of high technology industry development (HTID)
in the field is influenced by a series of factors. In China,
however, these factors are influenced by the behavior patterns of
government that have a strong impact on the institutional
environment of HTID. Meanwhile, corporate R&D _ intensity
makes a great impact on HTID because of the low technological
innovation capabilities of Chinese firms. The motivation that
drove the study is to analyze how corporate R&D intensity, and
the proportion between corporate intemal R&D fee and
technology import one have effect on HTID; and how the
behavior pattems of govemment have influence on HTID. To
analyze these issues, a formal model was built. This paper
presents the policy analysis of the model as follows: (1) How
corporate R&D intensity has an effect on HTID; (2) How the
proportion between corporate internal R&D fee and technology
import one has effect on HTID; (3) How the behavior pattems of
government have influence on HTID.
Systems Thinking by Stealth: How to 'Wash
the Great Unwashed'!
Is the systems approach as widely used as one might expect?
This paper argues that it isn’t. This is not because the approach is
flawed or weak. Rather, it is because any hint of portrayal of the
systems approach as ‘the method to help you change your mental
models’ is likely to be perceived by successful managers more as
a threat than a benefit - many people are happy with their mental
models, and just don’t want them changed. How can this
resistance be overcome? This paper makes a suggestion based on
the insight that, before you can adopt a new mental model, you
have to discard the old one; before you can learn something new,
you must unleam something old. And in general, unlearning the
old is much harder than leaming the new. Perhaps we should
therefore talk not of ‘the leaming organisation’, but of ‘the
unleaming organisation’.
132 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Michelle Shields
michelleshields@ e3.net.nz
54 Steadman Road
Avonhead/Russley
Christchurch New Zealand
V. I. Shiryaev
vis@ prima.susu.ac.ru
E. V. Shiryaev
vis@ prima.susu.ac.ru
I. Ya. Golovin
golovin@ prima.susu.ac.ru
V.V. Smolin
smolin@ prima.susu.ac.ru
South-Ural State University
Dept of Applied Mathematics
pr Lenina 78
454080 Chelyabinsk Russia
The Role of Group Dynamics in Mental Model
Development: An Experimental Comparison of
the Effect of Case Study and Management
Flight Simulator under Two Levels of
Facilitation
Group dynamics is theorized to play a pivotal role in how mental
model development occurs as a result of group model building.
To test this theory, a two part experimental investigation was
conducted. In the first part, mental model development was
assessed using two levels of group model building method: case
study and management flight simulator and two levels of
facilitation: non-facilitation and structured facilitation. In the
second experiment, the four experimental conditions were
retained and the original sample was divided into fourteen sub-
groups that worked together to devise an effective change
management strategy. Audio recordings of the activity were
analyzed for comments related to strategy, process, rationale and
facilitation. A second measure assessed participants’ perceived
level of agreement with, and input on, their group’s strategy.
This paper describes the design, procedures and results of this
second experiment and discusses the implications of outcomes
for research and practice.
Adaptation and Optimal C ontrol of a Firm and
its State and Parameters Estimation at the
Change of a Market Situation
The dynamic model of a one-commodity firm is described. For
this model the problem of firm adaptation to change of a market
situation is formulated and solved. Firm adaptation is realized by
change of its parameters that are found as a solution of the
optimization problem subject to appropriate funds on it. The
problem of optimal control by a firm in conditions of a varied
market situation is formulated and solved. The criterion of firm
functioning efficiency representing quadratic sum of the
particular criteria is constructed. For the formulated quadratic
criterion optimal control as a feedback is received. As firm
functioning occurs in uncertainty conditions estimation of a firm
state and parameters is described according to the information
system of the firm. Depending on information assumptions of
uncertain factors it is offered to apply algorithms to process the
information the Kalman filtrations, the guaranteed and minimax-
stochastic approach.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 133
Author Index
Vladimir N. Sidorenko
viadimir@ mail.econ.msu.ru
Moscow State University
Economic Faculty
Vorobjovy Gory
Moscow 119899 Russia
Rajendra S. Sisodia
rsisodia@ Inmta.bentley.edu
Bentley College
Morison 232
Waltham MA 02452-4705 USA
Tara Hurley
tara_hurley@ hotmail.com
Sutanto Soehodho
tanto@ eng.ui.ac.id
University of Indonesia
Dept of Civil Engineering
Depok 16424 Indonesia
System Dynamics Modeling in Modern Russia
In many "classical" languages of visual system dynamics
modeling now there are not the means to analyze spatially
distributed data, and also to investigate optimum control models
for which it is important to find the program control trajectory
and the appropriate trajectories for the variables describing state
of the system. In technical languages of simulating modeling
these limitations are overcome by programming necessary tools
of the data and models analysis by means of high level
programming languages; however, this way is not accessible to
many humanitarian experts. Therefore the decision of such
problems with use of visual means of system dynamic modeling
is more perspective. So the Moscow State University group of
scientists under supervision of Vladimir Sidorenko created in
2000-2001 the educational version of software which allows the
design and analysis of system dynamics models with spatial
dynamics and also solves a set of problems connected with
optimum control theory and games theory.
System Dynamics and Marketing Productivity
The marketing function in many companies has come to
consume what many believe to be a disproportionately high share
of corporate resources, inviting intense scrutiny from corporate
cost-cutters. Further, there appears, at a macro level, to be a low
correlation between the level of spending on marketing and
measures of overall financial performance or competitive
position; many firms are getting low, even negative retums on
incremental marketing spending. Finally, more than ever,
marketing as a corporate function and societal institution is
regarded more as a “necessary evil” than a value-creating
activity. All of these factors and more have focused renewed
attention on the critical issue of marketing productivity. In this
paper, we propose that the use of systems modeling could help
alleviate the productivity crisis in marketing.
Dynamic Model for Sediment Transport Due to
Volcanic Activities
It is a crucial matter for Indonesia as a country with many active
volcanoes that a control system of their activities is made for
mitigation. The flow of volcanic sediments like sand is a focus in
this paper through which a dynamic control system of sacks
called Sabo is to be developed. The dynamic property of the
system is the balance between the inflow of sandy materials from
volcanic activity and the outflow of the materials due to mining.
The optimal size of Sabo is modeled subject to random properties
134 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Sergio Sparacia
sparacia@ economia.unipa.it
Luigi Ciraolo
luigi.ciraolo@ unime.it
University of Messina
Dept of Commodity Science
Piazza S Pugliatti
Messina Italy 98122
Attilio Milazzo
milazzo@ economia.unipa.it
University of Palermo
Dept of Commodity Science
Viale delle Scienze
Palermo Italy 90128
Vaidotas Sruogis
vaidotas@ ifi.uib.no
Alessandro Lino
alino@ piaggioaero.it
Piaggio Aero Industries SpA
Via Cibrario 4
16154 Genova Italy
of inflow and outflow of sandy sediment. A dynamic control
system is developed into a model based on real data obtained
from Merapi mountain in Central Java Island which is considered
very active, and a simulation is made to predict inflow and
outflow in the following years. The model has been simulated
and successfully indicated the optimal size of Sabos and their
potential location of placement.
Life Cycle Design and System Thinking
Devising a life cycle design involves a number of systemic
variables, interacting over time, within a base structure and flows
that by defining the relevant environment mimics the logic of
systems yhinking. The possibility to adapt systemic archetypes
from systems thinking to life cycle design methodology forms a
cultural background that enables the forecast of eventual
systemic behaviour linked to the key variables interacting over a
predefined time-span. This paper illustrates the potential
compatibility and applications of systemic archetypes from
“systems thinking” to the drafting of a life cycle design.
The Changing Role of Simulation Modeling:
From a Manufacturing Re-Engineering Project
Towards the Corporate Model: A Real Case
Study from an Aircraft Manufactuing Company
The study presented in this paper concems a case study
conducted in a medium size aircraft manufacturing company.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 135
Author Index
Yeoryios A. Stamboulis
ystambou@ mie.uth.gr
University of Thessaly
Dept of Mechanical and Industrial En
Pedion Areos
Volos 38334 Greece
Emmanuel D. Adamides
holonics@ otenet. gr
University of Patras
Dept of Mechanical & Aeronautical En
Patras 26500 Greece
Thomas E. Malakis
thmal@ uth.gr
University of Thessaly
Dept of Mechanical and Industrial En
Volos 38334 Greece
Michael Stankosky
mstanko@ seas.gwu.edu
George Washington University
Dept of Engineering Mgt &
Systems Eng.
Gelman 704
Washington DC 20052 USA
136
The paper discusses a changing role of a simulation model
throughout the lifecycle of manufacturing re-engineering project.
The original goal of the study was to gain a deeper understanding
of how the existing production line of an executive class
turboprop aircraft would respond to an increase in the production
rate and use the acquired knowledge to improve the existing
manufacturing process. As the final result of the study an
interactive leaning environment has been produced to stimulate
new ideas and improvement initiatives. The modeling study also
served as a small-scale prototype project aimed at the design of
robust policies for improving the company’s performance and
reinforcing the organizational learning process. The paper further
discusses the lessons learned from the prototype project and sets
the framework for the future work.
Modeling the Product-Process R& D Dynamics
The aim of this paper is to outline the development and use of a
framework for studying the complex dynamics of product
development, process development and production within in the
context of a resource-based view of firm activities. The
development process is seen as a system of activities, resources
and dynamic capabilities, which are located and take place at
different places and time scales. The behaviour of the system is
explored through a modular system dynamics simulation model
of all inter-related systems, focused on the strategic management
of R&D efforts. Specific attention is given to the process
development strategy and the interaction between the leaming
processes which occur before and after a production process
starts operation. The proposed model can be used for
understanding the complex relationships among the various
activities that take place within a firm and the respective strategic
decisions, as well as for developing effective R&D strategies.
The System Dynamics of Knowledge
Management
We live in a knowledge-based economy, where the principal
factors of production are knowledge/intellectual assets. This
session introduces a systems approach to leverage enterprise-
wide intellectual assets. The template below integrates multiple
management and organizational concepts and practices. It
represents interdisciplinary thinking, and incorporates features in
systems thinking and systems dynamics. It answers three basic
questions: (1) what is the essence of knowledge management
(km); (2) how do you engineer a km system; and (3) how do you
implement and sustain that system. The template has been used
in, and analyzed against, numerous case studies, with a high
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Krystyna A. Stave
kstave@ cemail.nevada.edu
University of Nevada Las Vegas
Department of Environmental Studies
4505 Maryland Parkway Box 454030
Las Vegas NV 89154-4030 USA
Richard E. Little
University of Nevada Las Vegas
Department of Environmental Studies
4505 Maryland Parkway Box 454030
Las Vegas NV 89154-4030 USA
Craig A. Stephens
craig.stephens@ pa-consulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
Alan K. Graham
alan.graham@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
James M. Lyneis
jmlyneis@ alum.mitedu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Dept of Social Science and Policy
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609-2280 USA
confidence factor. It provides either a template for analyzing an
existing organization’s km system, or one that guides the km
manager and architect in designing and managing the system.
A Model to Support Stakeholder Evaluation of
Transportation Policy Options in Las Vegas,
Nevada
This paper describes a model created through a group model
building process conducted to help a stakeholder advisory
committee develop policy recommendations for a regional
transportation agency. Over seven months, we worked with
committee members and the transportation authority’s technical
staff to develop the strategic-level model. The model reflects the
group’s definition of the problem and collective understanding of
the system. The group’s goal was to improve traffic congestion,
flow and air quality over a 25-year planning horizon at the lowest
system cost. Their final recommendation included a mix of
policies with an estimated cost of $2.5 billion that achieved the
greatest air quality benefit and significantly reduced congestion
and increased flow. Participants were very positive about the
model-based process, saying it was faster and less painful than
similar processes they had participated in. This paper describes
the structure of the model and its use in the stakeholder
involvement process.
System Dynamics Modeling in the Legal Arena:
Special Challenges of the Expert Witness Role
In the late 1970s system dynamics models began to be employed
in legal disputes as a means of proving and quantifying damages
due from one party to another, and such use seems likely to
increase in the future. But most system dynamics practitioners
are unfamiliar with the role of expert witness and the obligations
and responsibilities associated with it. Admissibility of the
would-be expert's testimony is now more significant a hurdle
than ever, under recently established Supreme Court guidelines
that lean heavily on the scientific method. System dynamics
practitioners providing expert testimony in opposition to that of
other system dynamicists face some special challenges. The
stakes are high, since upcoming cases are likely to set precedents
that will significantly affect future use of system dynamics in the
legal arena. In addition, legal admissibility will doubtless impact
the more general perceived legitimacy and acceptance of system
dynamics in corporate and other non-legal settings.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 137
or Index
John Sterman
jsterman@ mitedu
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Sloan School of Management
30 Wadsworth Street E53-351
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
Linda Booth Sweeney
linda_booth_sweeney@ harvard.edu
75 Reservoir Street
Cambridge MA 02138 USA
Jiirgen Strohhecker (S)
strohhecker@ hfb.de
Business School for Banking &
Finance
Sonnemannstrasse 9-11
D-60314 Frankfurt am Main Germany
Jeroen Struben
jjrs@ mitedu
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
System Dynamics Group
30 Wadsworth Street E53-376
Cambridge MA 02139 USA
Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding
of Global Warming
Surveys show most Americans believe global warming is real.
But many advocate delaying action until there is more evidence
that warming is harmful. The stock and flow structure of the
climate, however, means “wait and see” policies guarantee
further warming. We report experiments assessing people’s
intuitive understanding of climate change. We presented highly
educated graduate students with descriptions of greenhouse
warming drawn from the IPCC’s nontechnical reports. Subjects
were then asked to identify the likely response to various
scenarios for CO2 emissions or concentrations. The tasks require
no mathematics, only an understanding of stocks and flows and
basic facts about climate change. Overall performance was poor.
Subjects often select trajectories that violate conservation of
matter. Many believe temperature responds immediately to
changes in CO2 emissions or concentrations. Still more believe
that stabilizing emissions near current rates would stabilize the
climate. We discuss implications for education and public policy.
Simulations for Planning Dresdner Bank's E-
day
Confronted with the approaching introduction of euro coins and
notes, Dresdner Bank’s branches had to consider that the cash
related transactions between 17th December 2001 and 28th
February 2002 would rise much above the normal level. On top
of the regular business, they had to cope with an unknown
amount of exchange transactions of Deutschmark into euro. To
avoid chaotic situations in the branches and high extra costs, the
branches had to prepare themselves and had to decide on a
couple of measures available. The paper presents how four
different scenarios on customer behaviour are developed, and
how these scenarios are linked with a queuing simulation model
which was able to show the impact of different assumptions on
the situation in the branches during the changeover period.
Simulation and analysis results showed that Dresdner Bank’s
branches were facing some challenges during changeover period.
Absolute chaos on broad front was however pretty unlikely.
Decision Rules and Assumptions in
Overexploitation of Renewable Resources
Behavior of actors within their specific socio-economic
environments differs with respect to their rationality, intentions
and perceptions, which results in different decision rules and thus
different impacts on the dynamics of the system of which they
138 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Lees N. Stuntz
stuntzln@ clexchange.org
Creative Learning Exchange
One Keefe Road
Acton MA 01720 USA
Debra A. Lyneis
lyneisd@ clexchange.org
Carlisle Public Schools
83 School Street
Carlisle MA 01741 USA
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Rockefeller College
Milne 318
Albany NY 12222 USA
Karl-Eric Sveiby
karlerik@ sveiby.com.au (S)
Keith Linard
keith@ linard.info
University of New South Wales
Centre for Business Dynamics
42 Rivett Street
Hackett ACT 2602 Australia
Lubomir Dvorsky
ldvorsky@ csc.com
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
are part. In the area of resource exploitation, fieldwork is an
extremely rich source for actual knowledge building. In addition
to this, quasi-empirical cases can provide insights through
analysis and comparing among different sets of assumptions of
the agents and/or of the underlying structures. This should
contribute to our understanding of behavioral modes of various
classes of systems related to resource exploitation. Furthermore,
analysis of impacts of oversimplified assumptions by agents with
decision power could be applied for educational purposes as
well. In this session we construct a simple predator-prey based
reference model as a basis for analysis of thought experiments in
the area of exploitation of limited, renewable, resources.
The Future of System Dynamics and Learner-
Centered Learning in K-12 Education
For a week in June 2001, a small group of schoolteachers and
professional system dynamicists convened in Essex,
Massachusetts under the guidance of Jay Forrester to plan the
future of system dynamics in kindergarten through twelfth grade
(K-12) education. Based on early experience in schools, the
group articulated a vision of what an education based on the
principles of system dynamics could provide to students. The
group then drew up a strategy to achieve that vision and a
detailed plan to implement the strategy. The participants of the
Essex session and co-authors were: Dan Barcan, William
Costello, Diana Fisher, Jay Forrester, Scott Guthrie, John
Heinbokel, Debra Lyneis, Jim Lyneis, Jan Mons, Jeff Potash,
Rob Quaden, George Richardson, Barry Richmond, Lees Stuntz,
Alan Ticotsky, Larry Weathers, and Ron Zaraza. The following
report on the session outlines how system dynamics can
fundamentally improve K-12 education.
Building a Knowledge-Based Strategy: A
System Dynamics Model for Allocating Value-
Adding Capacity
This paper reports on a project which integrates the pioneering
work on ‘intangible assets’ by Karl-Erik Sveiby with system
dynamics based human capital modelling undertaken for the
Australian Federal Public Service by the UNSW Centre for
Business Dynamics. The project aims to create a dynamic
‘management flight simulator’ which helps managers understand
better the dynamic interrelationships in organisation design and,
in particular, the interrelationships between an organisation’s
profitability (both short-term and long-term) and investment in
people competence, internal structure and relationship building
measures with customers. The expected use of such a simulator
139
Mats G. Svensson
mats,svensson@ chemeng.lth.se
Lund University
Environmental Science Center
PO Box 118
S-22100 Lund Sweden
Harald Sverdrup
harald.sverdrup@ chemeng.lth.se
Lund University
Dept of Chemical Engineering
Box 124
221 00 Lund Sweden
Ramon Guardans
(S)
(S)
is assisting managing partners of professional services
organisations to improve the allocation of both their own and
their staffs’ ‘value adding capacity’.
System Dynamics of Learning Processes:
Comparing Apples with Pears
Despite fundamental changes in how people work, live, and
entertain themselves, education systems at the beginning of the
new millennium would be familiar to anyone who attended
school 50-60 years ago. While most of the business world has
changed with the introduction of information technology, the
academic educational curriculum is remarkably unchanged. This
paper presents a model of how leaming is influenced by major
internal factors such as motivation, metacognitive skills, prior
knowledge and extemal factors such as study time, support,
teaching and infrastructure, including information technology.
These major intemal and extemal influencing factors are
affecting each other in several ways, and the modelling process is
forcing and enhancing viewpoints on how they are influencing
each other - thus the comparison of apples and pears. The model
also suggests how improvements in teaching, support and
infrastructure may improve the leaming process, including how
changes in the infrastructure with the introduction of information
technology are affecting the learning process.
System Dynamics A pplied to Reconstruct the
Dispersal of Modern Man on Earth and
Language Patterns During the Last 120,000
Years
Attempts have been made to mathematically model movement of
populations and languages in Eurasia. The present study uses
model outputs for the time period 120,000 BC-1,500 BC to
investigate the relation between the major language families into
which a majority of the Eurasian and American languages can be
ordered. The mathematical model calculations support the
possibility of the existence of linguistic macrofamilies. The
integrated interpretation of the modeling study together with
linguistic, genetic and archaeological data, indicate that all
Eurasian and American languages have sprung from a common
root around 80,000 years ago, that language dispersal in archaic
time is correlated to ethnicity and gene dispersals, and that
language transfer and diversification has been driven by
ecological factors. The model calculations suggests that the
origin of language is significantly earlier than 100,000 years ago,
in Africa.
140 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
or Index
Nobuhide Tanaka
770566@ gakushuin.ac.jp
Gakushuin University
Faculty of Economics
1-5-1 Mejiro Toshima-ku
Tokyo 171-8588 Japan
Yoshitoku Fukunaga
yinaga@ dream.ocn.ne,jp
Nakamura Gakuen University
5-7-1 Befu Jonan-ku
Fufuoka-shi 814-0198 Japan
Yutaka Takahashi
takahasi@ isc.senshu-u.ac,jp
Senshu Univ School of Commerce
2-1-1 Higashi-mita, Tama Kawasaki
Kanagawa Japan 214-8580
Michiya Morita
michiya.morita@ gakushuin.ac.jp
Gakushuin University
1-5-1 Mejiro, Toshima-ku
Tokyo 171-8588 Japan
Jonathan Bonopha Tengbe
Icumh@ lesoff.co.za
Skillshare International (S)
PO Box 269
Maseru 100 Lesotho
The Common Sense of the S-Shaped Growth:
Regarding the Exponential Increase
We will propose that the expression "exponential function
increase" causes confusion and that such phrases used to describe
a state do not serve in modeling the structure of a phenomenon.
We will propose that it is necessary to clearly state in detail the
tule of the increase when discussing modeling. Our presentation
focuses especially on logistic curves and shows that the first
increase in this curve is not exponential-like by the fluctuation
index which was defined with the purpose of analyzing the
instability degree of time series data.
System Dynamics Modeling in Resource
Management: A Sustainable Development
Approach to Resource Extraction in Sierra
Leone
This paper is a contribution to the urgent need for effective
sustainable development strategies within the framework of
Agenda 21 put forward at the 1992 World Conference on
Environment and Development. It describes the development of
a natural resource management model, which is able to capture
the economic, social and ecological variables that influence
resource management. The model is validated and three policy
approaches are analysed: the conservative policy approach,
which allows mining activity to continue in its current state, and
which is shown to lead to near catastrophic environmental
results; the radical policy approach, which would terminate all
mining activities immediately, and which is shown not to be
economically viable for an economy dependant on natural
resources; and the harmonious policy approach, which advocates
a gradual reduction of mining activities whilst at the same time
investing in intensive agricultural development, with the
objective of achieving sustainable development.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 141
Index
Igor E. Timchenko
timchenko@ stel.sebastopol.ua
National A cad of Sciences of Ukraine
Marine Hydrophysical Institute
2 Kapitanskaya Str
99000 Sevastopol Ukraine
Ekaterina M. Igumnova
National Acad of Sciences of Ukraine
Marine Hydrophysical Institute
2 Kapitanskaya Str
99000 Sevastopol Ukraine
Irina I. Timchenko
National Acad of Sciences of Ukraine
Marine Hydrophysical Institute
2 Kapitanskaya Str
99000 Sevastopol Ukraine
Felix Tretter
tretter@ krankenhaus-haar.de
District Hospital
D-85529 Haar
Munich Germany
Multi-A gent Simulation of Sustainable
Development Scenarios
This work is aimed on fostering the implementation of a new
Adaptive Balance of Causes (ABC) method for complex systems
modeling and a new multi-agent information technology for
system management. We introduce our method with application
to the natural resources management problem. We have
suggested a new system management approach which enable to
solve any complex system management problem in three main
steps: 1. Concept management model construction by the use of
6 general system concepts, derived from the system analysis
method; 2. Concept model formalization by the ABC method,
using a standard module equation to obtain a set of equations
being stable by the definition for any complex system. Dynamic
and stochastic methods for objective model coefficients
determination are suggested also. 3. Creation of an information
technology for decision-making support by use of the formal
ABC case study model and a new standard “resources market-
enterprise-goods market” model based on intelligent agents.
Modeling the System of Health Care and Drug
Addicts
Drug addiction is a very intriguing problem all over the world. In
Germany about 2-4% of heroin consumers die every year,
although a very differentiated care system is established. For this
reason the idea comes up that this system is not organized in a
proper way. For further analysis of functionality the tools of
mathematical systems analysis seems to be appropriate.
Quantitative analysis however must be based on sufficient
empirical data. With regard to drug care systems there is a lack
of adequate data in epidemiology and in care system's indicators.
142 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Shigehisa Tsuchiya
tsuchiya@ pfit-chiba.ac.jp
Chiba Institute of Technology
Grad School of Mgt and Systems Eng
2-17-1 Tsudanuma Narashino-shi
275-0016 Japan
K. Ito
Chiba Institute of Technology
Grad School of Mgt and Systems Eng
2-17-1 Tsudanuma Narashino-shi
275-0016 Japan
M. Sato
Chiba Institute of Technology
Grad School of Mgt and Systems Eng
2-17-1 Tsudanuma Narashino-shi
275-0016 Japan
David Turbow
dturbow@ uci.edu
11842 Della Lane
Garden Grove CA 92840 USA
Stephen A. Norwick
norwick@ sonoma.edu
Sonoma State University
Dept. of Environmental Studies
Rohnert Park CA 94928 USA.
Sajjad Ahmad
sajjad@ uci.edu
University of California, Irvine
Dept of Urban and Regional Planning
Irvine CA 92697-7070 USA
Several methodological problems and theoretical issues of this
study are described in the paper. A global model is proposed
based on estimation on regional data of the area of Munich
(FRG). The model is built by Stella. The problems to establish a
valid computer-based model are discussed.
High-Leverage Changes to Improve Safety
Culture: A Systemic Analysis of Major
Organizational Accidents
The purpose of this paper is to clarify high-leverage changes
indispensable for improving safety culture through organizational
learning. Although the concept of safety culture appears to have
become increasingly important, there is no established way to
improve it. Through systemic analysis and model building of the
process of deterioration of safety culture in three recent major
organizational accidents, we identified two main root causes: (1)
tradeoff between economy and safety and (2) misperception of
current reality. The reinforcing feedback loop between ‘focus on
efficiency' and ‘misperception of current reality' created
unhealthy safety culture, which undermined safety margin and
prepared an environment where a triggering factor can cause an
accident. The leverage points for improving safety culture are (1)
accurate perception of current reality and (2) adequate open
communication. In order to improve safety culture using these
two leverage points, we are now designing two
gaming/simulations for Tokyo Electric Power Company.
A Dynamic Simulation Model of Beach Sand
Replenishment: A Case Study of Santa Barbara,
California
Sediment deprivation from dam installments contributes to beach
erosion yet the underlying physical and economic factors linking
them together have traditionally been isolated during regional
planning. In order to gain a better understanding of the behavior
of a managed beach system, a dynamic simulation model was
developed incorporating physical and monetary factors
influencing the amount of available beach sand. The Santa
Barbara littoral cell was chosen as a case study to evaluate the
feasibility of beach preservation goals under scenarios in which
annual sand replenishment funding, sand prices, or sediment
recovery from behind dams were limiting factors to available
beach sand. Sources of model uncertainty included limited
information on historical sand replenishment costs and true
residence time of sand in the littoral cell. Results indicate that
with ample sand replenishment funding and moderate annual
sand loss assumed, a beach could be maintained at a desired
width for several decades.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 143
Author Index
Adam L. Turk
a.l.turk@ tbm.tudelft.nl
Technical University of Delft
Jaffalaan 5
2628 BX Delft The Netherlands
Margot Weijnen
Delft University of Technology
Interfaculty Research Center
PO Box 5069
2600 GA Delft The Netherlands
Edmond F. Vail
evail@ ptechinc.com
Ptech Inc
500 Victory Road
Quincy MA 02171 USA.
Angelos G. Varelis
avarel@ uth.gr
University of Thessaly
Dept of Mechanical and Industrial Eng
Volos 38334 Greece
Modeling and Analyzing Market Performance
in Infrastructures
Accurate and appropriate performance of an infrastructure is
important due to society’s dependency on its service. This
research tries to examine the performance of an infrastructure
and the potential causes for its failure. Specifically, the objective
is to model the dynamics of an infrastructure market and to
examine it with respect to performance criteria. The theoretical
and observable dynamics of an infrastructure market are
represented as a causal model. In tum, relevant criteria, based
upon society’s desire, can be used to analysis the performance of
the system. This analysis helps to determine the potential
performance failures in the infrastructure market. In this paper, a
causal model of a generic infrastructure market is presented and
analyzed against performance criteria for possible failures. The
identified failures from this causal model were supported by
illustrations from the California energy crisis.
Causal Architecture: Aligning Enterprise
Strategy and Operational Dynamics with the
Enabling Information Technology
In The Squandered Computer, Paul Strassman described how
trillions of dollars in annual computer expenditures had resulted
in no demonstrable relationship between computer spending and
corporate profits. Two promising methodologies are evolving to
address these problems: Enterprise Architecture (EA) and the
Zachman Framework (ZF). However each has limitations. EAs
link business strategies to IT capabilities but do not give
guidance on what is most valuable to model. Zachman
Frameworks are excellent at organizing EA models but do not
indicate the most valuable places to start modeling. To resolve
these limitations, a new methodology, Causal Architecture, has
been developed. This presentation gives an overview of the EA,
ZF and Causal Architecture Methodologies. It describes how
Causal Architecture is used to most effectively leverage the
Zachman Framework in guiding efficient EA modeling and IT
implementation. Two large enterprise Causal Architecture
implementation examples are also described.
A Life-Cycle System Dynamics Model of
Aircraft Engine Maintenance
The purpose of this paper is to describe the development and use
of a framework for studying the dynamics of the maintenance
system of a fleet of military-aircraft engines in a holistic way, as
far as both time and place are concemed. The framework is based
144 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Yeoryios A. Stamboulis
ystambou@ mie.uth.gr
University of Thessaly
Dept of Mechanical and Industrial Eng
Pedion Areos
Volos 38334 Greece
Emmanuel D. Adamides
holonics@ otenet.gr
University of Patras
Dept of Mechanical and A eronautical
Engineering
Patras 26500 Greece
Bernd Viehweger
bv@ wiwi.hu-berlin.de
Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin
Spandauer Str 1
D-10178 Berlin Germany
Angelika Kreitel
dr.wak@ gmx.de
Fachhochschule W iirzburg-Schweinfurt
Fachbereich Betriebswirtschaft
Minzstr 12
97070 Wirzburg Germany
Johannes Palme
jop@ itaw.hu-berlin.de
Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin
ITAW
Am Kollnischen Park 6/7
10179 Berlin Germany
Klaus-Ole V ogstad
Klausv@ stud.ntnu.no
Norwegian Univ of Sci and Tech
Electrical Power EVG
Sem Saelanosve 11 / SEFAS
7465 Trondheim Norway
Audun Botterud
Karl Magnus Maribu
Stine Grenaa Jensen
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
thor Index
on a modular system dynamics simulation model of all the inter-
related systems, which are involved throughout the life-cycle of
the engines (preventive maintenance, repair maintenance,
factory-level maintenance, maintenance human_resources
management, spares management and engine disposal). The
proposed model can be used for understanding the complex
relationships among the systems and their elements, for
evaluating vendor proposed maintenance systems, as well as for
developing effective maintenance strategies.
Simulation of Success Stories into Strategic
Corporate Planning
Modem management information systems make direct use of
data from applications implemented in different functional areas
of enterprises. Such applications could be ERP systems as well
as legacy systems in functional areas such as a production
planning application, an accounting system, a marketing and
customer relationship system etc. These sources will be used
from management information systems as a consolidated basis
for corporate planning and corporate reporting. Until today a
simulation of strategic corporate forecast has been possible on a
consolidated data basis. By using a X ML interface a direct access
to different web-based data of functional systems in a client
server environment will be created. This will open the way to use
the system dynamics methodology to simulate a forecast for
product development and their challenges at the market. The
main target of this simulation is to make transparent the
efficiency of marketing measures and of research and
development expenses.
The Transition from Fossil Fuel to a Renewable
Power Supply in a Deregulated Electricity
Market
In this paper, we investigate the trade-offs between long-term
and short-term effects of energy planning within the context of a
deregulated power market. The purpose is to find efficient
policies that can aid the transition from a fossil fuelled to a
renewable based power supply. Our case study is on the
Nordpool power market. The model focuses on the main
feedback loops that determine long-term development for new
capacity, namely the unit commitment (operational
characteristic), capacity acquisition, technological progress and
finally resource depletion. We show that the operational
145
Patrick Walters
patrick.walters@ gov.calgary.ab.ca
City of Calgary
PO Box 2100 Stn M Mailcode 8307
Calgary AB T2P 2M5 Canada
Stanley Albert Kongnetiman
csesk@ gov.calgary.ab.ca
Njaila Research & Consulting
83 Somerglen Way SW
Calgary AB T2& 4B1 Canada
Iqbal Jamal
iqbaljamal@ shaw.ca
AQL Management Consulting
4216 109A Street
Edmonton AB T6J 2R8 Canada
Qifan Wang
afwang@ fudan.edu.cn
Fudan University
School of Management
220 Han Dan Road
200433 Shanghai China
Nong Li
Bo Xu
brianxu@ sohu.com
Shanghai Institute of Foreign Trade
Business School
Room 209 Building 4 620 Gubei Road
Shanghai 200336 China
Qifan Wang
qfwang@ fudan.edu.cn
Fudan University
School of Management
220 Han Dan Road
200433 Shanghai China
Nong Li
Jianguo Jia
146
characteristics sometimes are important to include in long-term
analyses. Finally, some simulation runs for two possible policies
are presented and discussed.
A Municipal Fiscal Impact Model: Real-World
Policy Modeling
This paper presents a summary of work that was done by the
civic govemments of Calgary and Edmonton that addressed the
question of suburban development, infrastructure growth and
rehabilitation and their financing given limited funding. In the
1980's and 1990s, Canadian federal and provincial governments
became concermed about the state of their respective finances.
They responded by introducing a combination of expenditure
reductions, tax increases and higher user fees. Consequently,
transfer payments to municipalities were reduced. These
measures had a profound impact on the economies of the urban
regions affecting the rate of renewal and obsolescence in
business, residential and public infrastructures. In this context,
the Cities have had to decide how to allocate their limited
financial resources between competing needs of further suburban
development and growth restricted to the already built up areas.
But the Cities' financial ability to expand and to maintain their
infrastructures are limited.
Systems A nalysis of Kondratieff Model
Through analysis of the Kondratieff model, this paper discusses
the causes of economic fluctuation. The analysis of the model
simulating test discovered that two important factors caused the
economic long wave. It can be said with certainty that an
accidental event consequentially affected the economic long
wave. In addition, the social real mode of production leading to
the formation of the long wave is proved.
On Complexity of Emergence, Adjustment and
Evolution of Enterprise Network
An enterprise is a dynamic social network and its organization
structure is the embodiment of this network. Based on the vision
and mission of the enterprise itself, every network point is given
the relative right and duty and an enterprise’s development plan
is also formulated according to its enviroment. In a changing and
competitive environment, an enterprise adjusts its network based
on changes in environment. This paper, through establishing a
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Index
Elise A. Weaver
eweaver@ wpi.edu
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
(S)
Dept Social Science and Policy Studies
100 Institute Road
Worcester MA 01609-2280 USA
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Rockefeller College
Milne 318
Albany NY 12222 USA
Peter M. Welles
pwelles@ hps-inc.com
High Performance Systems Inc
45 Lyme Road Suite 300
Hanover NH 03755 USA
David Wheat
dwheat@ peti.net
Wheat Resources Inc
PO Box 19234
Roanoke VA 24019 USA
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
simple enterprise structure model, studied the emergence of
enterprise network and its dynamic adjustment in a changing
environment. An exploration of causes of network evolution was
given with several cases of structure analysis and evolution.
Threshold Setting and The Cycling of a Decision
Threshold
When policy makers use a test result with a cutoff score in a
decision, the cutoff threshold may change over time. An
example is the threshold of "reasonable suspicion" used to justify
a police search. Hammond (1996) postulated that a decision
threshold will oscillate over time in response to competing
pressures from affected constituencies, as unavoidable cases of
false positives (e.g. innocent people searched) and false negatives
(e.g. guilty people overlooked) emerge from the uncertainty of
using an imperfect test (e.g. level of evidence) to predict the
actual measure of interest (eg. guilt). The structural
underpinnings of a cycling threshold are analyzed in this theory-
building article. First, we present a simplified converging model
of Hammond's initial insight. Then, we present three alternative
models: one with integral control representing the historical
dissatisfaction of competing constituencies; a second model with
delays in policy maker responsiveness; and a third with
stakeholders shifting constituencies.
Implementing the Trojan Horse Strategy:
Process and Techniques for Accelerating the
Rate at Which System Dynamics Penetrates the
Mainstream Education System
By recommending the infusion of system dynamics concepts into
the type of curriculum materials that educators currently seek, the
“Trojan Horse Strategy” aims to accelerate the rate at which the
mainstream education system adopts system dynamics. Drawing
on principles from lesson plan development, system dynamics,
and application design, “Implementing the Trojan Horse
Strategy” describes process and techniques for helping teachers
build student understanding of subject matter and system
dynamics simultaneously. This practical guide for educators
includes an overview of the strategy, an analysis of the activities
space within which these tools must operate, and a presentation
of a four-step process for building educational tools that support
the strategy.
Interactive Model of Business Cycles
This presentation previews a research project to evaluate whether
system dynamics business cycle models, when used as
147
Anthony S. White
a.white@ mdx.ac.uk
Yong Chooi Yan
Elif Akpunar
Kuik Kai Hock
Middlesex University
Engineering Systems Group
Bounds Green Road
London N11 2NQ UK
Ddembe W. Williams
d.williams@ sbu.ac.uk
South Bank University
School of Computing IS and
Mathematic
103 Borough Rd
London SE1 0AA UK
148
(S)
instructional tools in undergraduate macroeconomics courses,
can enhance student understanding of business fluctuations. First,
we will demonstrate a system dynamics model of the standard
economics textbook diagram of the circular flow of national
income and national product. A working model of the circular
flow is useful for revealing pattems of multiplier effects of
injections and leakages of spending and income. Yet, even a
dynamic circular flow model is still fundamentally an accounting
tool when standing alone. As we progressively add links from
behavioral models of business cycle sub-systems, however, the
circular flow model behaves more like a real economic system.
Conference participants can interact with a microworld version,
examine changes as behavioral models are successively linked to
the accounting model, and test alternative assumptions and
policy scenarios.
Control Strategies for Inventory Management
This paper describes a control systems approach to the
management of inventory. Normal inventory operation is an
example of proportional control. Several control algorithms
including Pseudo-Derivative Feedback (PDF), Proportional,
Integral and Derivative (PID) and Feedforward control are used
in this paper to produce a more sophisticated form of inventory
operation that can easily reduce stock levels by up to 80%
compared to 20-30% with MRP and hence reduce cost. Settling
times are reduced by a factor of 50%. Modelling was achieved
using the Simulink simulation package using equations
developed by Ferris and Towill for a single level industrial
system model rather than a conventional System Dynamics
computer package. The best controller is shown to be a PID
controller with Feedforward. This controller did not cause any
significant oscillatory inventory level changes. These techniques
compare well with other investigators using control strategies.
This has special significance for JIT and MRP methods.
Integrating System Dynamics Modeling and
Case Study Research Method: A Theoretical
Framework for Process Improvement
Research designs that extensively combine both system
dynamics modelling and case study in requirements engineering
process modelling are rare. Triangulation of methods, while not
new, has not been applied in requirements engineering process
modelling and improvement research. This paper aims to provide
a useful and systematic reference point for researchers who wish
to work in RE process improvement and generally to encourage
careful work on the conceptualisation and execution of Dynamic
Synthesis methodology in RE process and a wider software
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
process modelling field. The paper addresses the philosophical
and theoretical issues conceming the nature of combining the
case study and process simulation research approaches, and
methodological issues on conducting and reporting of this type of
research design. The paper suggests that the potential usefulness
of the Dynamic Synthesis methodology is in aiding researchers
in improving both building and testing theories in requirements
engineering process modelling and improvement.
Martha C. Wilson (S) Operational Improvements in the Supply
nwilson@ d.umn.edu Chain: Who Benefits? Who Loses?
University of Minnesota Duluth
ps La VKH This study applies system dynamics simulation to investigate the
Duluth MN 55812-2496 USA impact of operational improvements in a supply chain, which is
at one of three stages of sharing demand information: the
traditional scenario in which no information is shared; vendor
managed inventory in which the vendor receives customer
demand information to manage warehouse inventory; and
collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment, in which
information is shared throughout the supply chain. The impact
of five operational improvements, resulting in reduced transit and
production lead times, is investigated for each scenario. The
impacts are assessed by calculating the average inventory level
and inventory variability for each partner in the supply chain.
The results of this study indicate that some partners benefit more
by certain improvements, whereas others benefit less, and that
reduced fluctuations in inventory depend on the type of
improvement, the level of supply chain integration, and one’s
position in the supply chain.
Graham W. Winch Knitting and Deep Niches: The Importance for
Sree ince Boe ape SME's of Focus in R&D and Product
Piymouth Business School Development
Drake Circus
Plymouth Devon PL4 8AA UK Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SME's) face major
challenges in trying to remain competitive in the global market
Anthony H. G. Gill place. An identified strategic ploy to maximise effectiveness in
tonygill@ phrontis.com
Phrontis Limited product design and R&D is the ‘deep niche strategy’. This paper
Beacon House Hom Hill Road demonstrates the use of system dynamics diagramming processes
Adderbury Banbury OX17 3EU UK in articulating this strategy, as observed in case studies of two
Daniel J. W. Arthur very high-tech SME's and a niche lingerie company, and in
darthur@ plymouth.ac.uk conveying the critical importance of this ploy to SME
University of Plymouth entrepreneurs, consultants and academics.
Moneycentre Floor 1
Dept for Enterprise
Plymouth Devon PL4 8AA UK
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 149
or Index
Arlen Wolpert
awolpert@ world.std.com
411 Franklin Street Apt 1008
Cambridge MA 02139 USA
Bo Xu
brianxu@ sohu.com
Shanghai Institute of Foreign Trade
Business School
Room 209 Building 4 620 Gubei Road
Shanghai 200336 China
Bing Xia
xiabing75@ yahoo.com.cn
Shanghai Institute of Foreign Trade
Business School
Room 209 Building 4 620 Gubei Road
Shanghai 200336 China
Caozhi Xu
xucaozhi@ 263.net,
Zhejiang University
Management School
Hangzhou 310027 China
150
Transcendental Feedback Phenomenology
(TFP)
TFP is a method for examining core consciousness during
traumatic experiences, including uncovering subtleties of
consciousness and meaning. It applies system dynamics to
convert Husserl’s Transcendental Phenomenology into a
relatively simple formalized science. This methodological
advance positions TFP as a new source for implementations in
phenomenology, consciousness studies, and deep psychotherapy.
Key reasons why TFP succeeds are: 1) The epoche: brackets-out
extended consciousness and focuses on core consciousness. 2)
Structures consciousness as a multiloop nonlinear feedback
system, the same structure as the neurophysiological system
underlying consciousness. 3) Utilizes Forrester’s 5th principle of
system dynamics, quantification of unmeasured but important
concepts and relationships, and his method for geometrizing
differential equations. TFP’s use is illustrated by applying it to
recall, analyze, and resolve a traumatic 16-hour religious
experience. Thus, TFP implements the search for the deepest
truths of the inner life and the quest for permanent foundations
for science, philosophy, and religion.
System Archetype Analysis on C orporate
Restructuring
This thesis uses system archetypes to analyze and explain the
features unique to corporate restructuring (CR) in China the
reform era and the strategic plan underlying them. The thesis
begins with the review of three developing stages of CR in
China, focusing on the characteristics and problems of CR,
especially CR conceming listed companies on China’s newly
developed securities market. Using System Archetype I -
“Shifting Burden,” the thesis highlights the causes and results of
cash trading or strategic CR, as well as the differences and
relationship between them, with the attempt to curb cash trading
and promote strategic CR. The paper describes the process of
strategic CR, assets rearrangement and synergy creation with
System Archetype II - “Limits to Grows.” Motivated by strategic
development and based on performance improvement, strategic
CR promotes the efficiency of companies through successful
assets rearrangement and synergy creation and maximizes the
value of listed companies on the securities market in China.
Innovation Management in Virtual Enterprise
The idea of virtual enterprises is to implement modem
management-trends like “concentration to key operations,”
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
or Index
Qingrui Xu
sbaxuqr@ dial.zju.edu.cn
Zhejiang University
School of Management
Yuquan Campus
Hangzhou 310027 China
Qingrui Xu
sbaxuqr@ dial.zju.edu.cn
Zhejiang University
School of Management
Yuquan Campus
Hangzhou 310027 China
Caozhi Xu
xucaozhi@ 263.net,
Zhejiang University
Management School
Hangzhou 310027 China
Qingrui Xu
sbaxuqr@ dial.zju.edu.cn
Zhejiang University
School of Management
Yuquan Campus
Hangzhou 310027 China
Yong Wang
wysoar@ sohu.com
Zhejiang University
Research Center for Managerial Sci
Hangzhou 310027 China
“distributed production,” “establishing core competence,” and
“maximal customer orientation” with the support of advanced
computer and telecommunication systems. An important feature
of virtual organization is a distinctive form of network
organization in combination with a high degree of organization
flexibility. The organization concept of virtual enterprises can be
interpreted as an intermediate form between the poles: market
and hierarchical structured enterprises. In this context transaction
costs are helpful criteria for the definition of the structure of
virtual enterprises. A virtual enterprise is a complex system. How
to manage virtual human resources and virtual R&D? How to
manage the operation from R&D to commercialization? Based
on core competencies and transaction costs, the paper establishes
a system dynamics model for innovation management of virtual
enterprises and provides some suggestions for managing virtual
enterprises.
The Analysis of Coordination and Sustainable
Development in a Knowledge Economy
How can long-term needs really be balanced with short-term
imperatives, especially when change is so unpredictable? In
effect, social, environmental and economic issues of almost
unprecedented complexity need to be tackled at several levels in
ways that are not merely conceptually neat, but that also
encourage significant behavioral and institutional change. A
strategy for sustainable development should be seen as a set of
coordination mechanisms and processes to help society work
towards sustainable development - not as ‘master plans’ which
will get out of date. The paper provide a complex system
including social, technology, economy, education and ecology
subsystems, and interaction between these subsystems. The
authors establish a system dynamics model to simulate the
behavior of the system. To China, the paper suggests that the rate
of education investment should be bigger than investment in
R&D, and 10 years sooner. The paper also suggests the rate of
the intemal education structure and internal R&D structure.
A System Dynamics Approach for Community
of Practices
In now turbulent business environment, organizational learning
and knowledge management capability has become the requisite
competences to survive and win the fiercely competitiveness,
Managing organizational learning effectively is the main
challenge for most organizations. Community of Practices
(CoPs) is one of the most effective organizational learning if
organizing well. However, group leaming in social interactive
environment is very complex. In fact, CoPs are very complex
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 151
or Index
Gang Zheng
zhg1213@ cma.zju.edu.cn
Zhejiang University
School of Management
Hangzhou 310027 China
Qingrui Xu
sbaxuqr@ dial.zju.edu.cn
Xiaoging Zhao
2xq62@ 123.com
Zhejiang University
School of Management
Hangzhou 310027 China
Shougin Shen
rcid@ cma.zju.edu.cn
Zhejiang University
Dept of Finance
Hangzhou 310027 China
Qingrui Xu
sbaxuqr@ dial.zju.edu.cn
Zhejiang University
School of Management
Yuquan Campus
Hangzhou 310027 China
Jinyang Hua
huajinyang@ sina.com.cn
Zhejiang University
Dept of Management Sci and
Engineering
Yu Quan Road
Hangzhou City 310027 China
Qingrui Xu
sbaxuqr@ dial.zju.edu.cn
Zhejiang University
School of Management
Yuquan Campus
Hangzhou 310027 China
system in which the members interact each other. Using system
dynamics model to simulate the process of the members learning
is a useful approach to explore the learning mechanism in CoPs.
In this article we will disclose the key factors for organizing
CoPs successfully based on simulation.
System Dynamics Modeling of a Firm's
Technological C ompetence and Capital
Accumulation
In this paper, the system dynamics model of technological
competence of the firms and capital accumulation was set up. By
computer simulation and policy analysis of this model, the
interaction and dynamic development of technological
competence and capital accumulation was worked out.
Furthermore, the optimal ratio between importing and indigenous
R&D expenditure as well as optimal rate of capital accumulation
was obtained.
The Change of Corporate G overnance in
Transitional China by System Dynamics
Modeling
Most large and medium-sized enterprises in China have
transformed to stock companies and established a corporate
governance structure. The old leading system in enterprise,
including the Party community, the employee representative
committee and the labor union, seems to be replaced. However,
the change of institutional and cultural context is a hard and slow
process, especially in China, which makes the status of corporate
governance in transformation more complex and multileveled.
This paper aims to apply system dynamics modeling to find a
reasonable solution and make suggestions about further
development. A rational structure of corporate governance in
China should be a modified version of the new system. The
higher the degree of party and employee participation in
corporate govemance, the better governance effect can be got.
Therefore, a certain degree of joint use of the new system and the
old will greatly benefit governance performance for Chinese
companies.
System Dynamic Modeling and Policy Analysis
of Regional High-Tech Industries Development:
An Empirical Study of Hangzhou City
With the coming of the knowledge-based economy, high-tech
industries such as ICT’s, biotechnology, new materials and so on
are becoming more and more important for a region’s economic
growth and competition advantage. According to our literature
152 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Gang Zheng
zhg1213@ cma.zju.edu.cn
Zhejiang University
School of Management
Hangzhou 310027 China
Shougin Shen
reid@ cma.zju.edu.cn
Zhejiang University
Dept of Finance
Yuquan Campus
Hangzhou 310027 China
Seung-jun Y eon
naege@ netian.com
Chungbuk National University
Dept of MIS
#48 Gaeshin Dong
Cheongju City Chungbuk
Korea 361-736
Sang-hyun Park
alraview@ netian.com
Chungbuk National University
Dept of MIS
#48 Gaeshin Dong
Cheongju City Chungbuk
Korea 361-736
Sang-wook Kim
sierra@ cbucc.chungbuk.ac.kr
Chungbuk National University
Dept of MIS
#48 Gaeshin Dong
Cheongju City Chungbuk
Korea 361-736
Joseph Y oon
joseph. yoon@ isr.gov.au
Australian Federal Govemment
Dept of Industry Tourism & Resources
GPO Box 9839
Canberra 2601 Australia
Alan Charles McLucas
a.melucas@ adfa.edu.au
University of New South Wales
Australian Defence Force Academy
School of Civil Engineering
Northcott Drive
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
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review and empirical surveys, development of a region's high-
tech industry is mainly affected by several key factors. The
interaction mechanism among these factors is nonlinear and very
complex. To foster and promote the rapid development of high-
tech industries, the decision-makers of the region should think of
these key factors, and try to optimize dynamic resource
allocation. System dynamics methodology, which has proved to
be very useful and feasible, is one of the good scientific tools to
analyse and simulate a complex system. Choosing Hangzhou
City as an empirical case, this paper models the dynamic
interaction among these factors. The authors try to give some
policy analysis and suggestions, which may be very useful for
decision-makers.
A System Dynamics Approach to Assessing the
Effects of Electronic Commerce on Local
Economy in Korea
The advent of a nearly ubiquitous information infrastructures is
raising two conflicting hypothetical economic points of view.
The one is that cyberspace, a parallel electronic world as a
laboratory of new social and commercial practices, will
eventually resolve the problem of economic disparity by
presenting equal opportunities to both the haves and the have-
nots through the removal of barriers of time and space. The other
is that the problem of economic disparity will be amplified by the
new rule ‘winner gets the most,’ which would perhaps be
unavoidable in a digital economy. By introducing systems
thinking and adopting the system dynamics simulation technique,
this paper attempts to find some tentative answers to questions
raised about the impact of electronic commerce on local
economy, on which little research has been conducted so far. The
general scheme is the dynamism of systems where two groups of
electronic malls compete with each other.
Risk Management Stra’ in the Australian
Federal Government: Critical Analysis with a
System Dynamics A pproach
Risk Management Strategy provides an overview of the
processes directed at reducing risk and capturing opportunities. It
outlines processes and techniques to enhance the efficiency of
risk management. A formalised, well-structured and systematic
approach to risk management is essential to ensuring continuing
success and the achievement of programme objectives. Managing
risk is an integral part of sound management, and fundamental to
achieving programme objectives. Risk management activities
take many forms, and although most managers do not use the
term ‘risk’ when they undertake these activities, the concept of
153
Showing H. Young
young@ cm.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Y at-Sen University
Department of Business Management
PO Box 59-35
Kaohsiung Taiwan
Yi-Ming Tu
ymtu@ mis.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Y at-Sen University
Dept of Information Management
Kaohsiung 804 Taiwan
Ya-Tsai Tseng
m8342607@ mis.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Y at-Sen University
Dept of Business Management
Kaohsiung Taiwan
Showing H. Young
young@ cm.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Y at-Sen University
Department of Business Management
PO Box 59-35
Kaohsiung Taiwan
Shyh-Jane Li
d9041813@ student.nsysu.edu.tw
National Sun Y at-Sen University
Department of Business Management
Kaohsiung Taiwan
risk is central to what they are doing.In this sense, this paper
examines the concept of risk, the objective and policy of risk
management, the strategy and the generic procedure. As a case
study, the Risk Management Strategy of the Tax Concession
Program in the Australian Federal Government is analysed with a
system dynamics perspective.
A Dynamic Alignment Approach to Leverage
Design in System Dynamics Models:
Stratagem-2 as an Example
This paper attempts to develop a dynamic alignment approach to
leverage design of system dynamics models. The approach
developed in this research is a flow-based design, different from
traditional macro designs of aggregated system structures or loop
analysis. It is grounded on some major concepts in Synchronous
management at plants and uses the Drum-Buffer-Rope (DBR)
system to align the various operations of rate decisions. We take
the famous long wave model (Strategem-2) as an example to
examine the performance of the proposed leverage design
method. The redesigned system shows that the original
oscillation behavior is eliminated. By better alignment and
streamlining of flows, the discrepancy between the production
rate and desired production in Strategem-2 is dramatically
reduced, even in higher degree than some previous leverage
design approaches proposed by other system dynamists (e.g.,
Sterman (1989), Ozveren and Sterman (1989)).
An Experiment of Teaching and Learning
System Dynamics with A ids of Action Research
Tools
This paper introduces an experiment we conducted in teaching
system dynamics at an undergraduate (junior) level at the
Department of Business Management, National Sun Yat-sen
University. A step-by-step feedback-leaming concept is
employed. We guide the students into the field of system
dynamics gradually and make the leaming environment quite
enjoyable and challenging for learning. In our design, besides
learning in class, students can also enhance their leaming after
classes through the environment of the Cyber University here,
and it can increase the quality of education and students’ interests
dramatically. From the process of actions and self-examinations,
we have continued to improve our teaching and raise students’
interests and enhance their leaming effects. In our teaching
activities, we set up very challenging leaming goals, identify
questions and provide proper assistance to improve their
performances. Finally, we check the results of action and
introspect the actions of the whole process.
154 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Aldo A. Zagonel
zagonel@ aol.com
University at Albany
11 Pheasant Ridge Drive
Loudonville NY 12211 USA
Ugur Necdet Zel
ugurzel@ mail.com
Guvenlik Cad
Esenlik Sok 10/6
Asagi Ayranci
Ankara Turkey
Model C onceptualization in Group Model
Building: A Review of the Literature Explorin
the Tension Between Representing Reality an
Negotiating a Social Order
There is a growing practice of building system dynamics models
directly with groups. This paper traces a genealogy of group
model building (GMB) along two stream of thought. It focuses
upon exploring the tension between modeling as a representation
of reality, and modeling as a tool for negotiating a social order.
The literature is organized into five clusters that roughly
represent the members of a genealogy tree. A description of
GMB is developed to fit an ideal type conceptual dichotomy.
Findings are summarized in tables, mostly quoting directly from
surveyed authors. The paper offers supporting evidence to the
thesis that there are two intertwined threads in the group
approach to system dynamics modeling. GMB _ interventions
strive both to create a shared understanding of an interpersonal or
inter-organizational problem, in the form of a “boundary-object”
model, and to build a “micro-world” type model that is useful in
terms of organizational redesign.
Is Y our Personality a Sign for your Leadership
Style?: A Model Proposal to Personality and
Leadership Relationship
Research findings show that "personality" is one of the important
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 155
Author Index
factors which affects leadership style. The purpose of this study
is to build a model representing “personality-leadership”
relationship and to reveal which personality characteristic is
related with which leadership style. A literature survey is made
to reveal some empirical findings on "personality" and "the role
of personality on leadership performance" This article covers an
application made to reveal the relations between occupational
personality dimensions and leadership styles. The data is
obtained by using "SHL-OPQ / Occupational Personality
Questionnaire" in two different cultures (United Kingdom and
Turkey). The total number of managers is 273 composed of 126
from United Kingdom and 147 from Turkey. The collected data
is analyzed by using ANOVA and Spearman correlation
methods. Important differences and similarities are found
between cultures. By using these findings, a model is built which
shows the relationships between the “occupational personality
characteristics” and “leadership styles”.
ziomek@ novcil ae.poznan.pl Domestic Product and Unemployment
Poznan University of Economics
Al Niepodleglosci 10 ag rps
Gi.OG7 Pomin Poland The paper concems the characteristics of conditions and
processes which permanently influence unemployment, as the
result of domestic product fluctuation. Economic reality
determines the character of the relationship between domestic
production and the labour market as the system. It signals that the
connection between the two variables depends not only on the
domestic product change, but also on a wide spectrum of factors.
The variables representing factors are categorized into groups.
Criteria of the division are the affected object - employer and
employee, and the size of the object. For the system analysis, the
system dynamics method has been applied. This method allows
an investigation of a high number of simultaneously operating
and related processes, which regulate the reaction of
unemployment to domestic product changes.
Agnieszka Ziomek (S) The Performance of the Relationship Between
156 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
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Special Sessions
Russell A ckoff
rlackoff@ aol.com
1021 Lancaster Avenue #201
Bryn Mawr PA 19010 USA
Peter M. Senge
psenge@ mit.edu
Society for Organizational Learning
955 Massachusetts A venue Suite 201
Cambridge MA 02139-3180 USA
This session is sponsored by IBM.
Angelo Alessandri
angelo@ ian.ge.cnr.it
Intelligent Systems and Automation
Via De Marini 6
16149 Genova Italy
Nicholas C. G eorgantzas
georgantzas@ fordham.edu
Fordham University at Lincoln Center
113 W 60th St
Suite LL 617-D
New York NY 10023-7471 USA
The Dynamic C oncept of an Enterprise; and,
Managing and Leading Organizations as
Communities
Russell L. Ackoff and Peter M. Senge will speak on THE
DYNAMIC CONCEPT OF AN_ ENTERPRISE and
MANAGING AND LEADING ORGANIZATIONS AS
COMMUNITIES respectively. Conceptual transformations to
management and organizations in an enterprise, and the evolving
qualities of organizations as human communities, will be
discussed. Russell L. Ackoff is Anheuser-Busch Professor
Emeritus of Management Science at The Wharton School,
University of Pennsylvania, an author and co-author. Peter M.
Senge is a Senior Lecturer at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology and Founding Chair of the Society for
Organizational Learning (SoL), author and co-author.
System Dynamics and Applications of
Optimization
From the fifties, numerous optimization methods have been
proposed and have increasingly obtained successes so as to
become an essential component of support decision systems in
many areas, including, among others, economy, control, and
telecommunication. Many numerical packages for optimization
are available and have reached a wide diffusion in all the
scientific communities. This context has suggested to focus on
the role of optimization in system dynamics. Optimization in
system dynamics is used for two main purposes, ie, model
identification and policy gauging. Optimization allows one to
deal with difficult problems for which exact analytical solutions
are hard to find for theoretical and practical reasons. In this
prospect, the session aims at bringing together different
experiences gained in facing some of these problems regarding
system dynamics' applications.
Environmental issues in Commercial
Exploitation
When it comes to renewable resource management, Earth's
human inhabitants act as if we have never heard of 'management'
before. Y et, our system dynamics management technology shows
how basic laws of biology, economics and physics render time
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 157
Author Index
delays long in environmental issues. And the wait-and-see
attitude of our global conventions (e.g. Kyoto) and initiatives
(e.g. Clear Skies) stretch Nature's time delays to unthinkable
proportions. When will this planet get tired and spit us out? The
session's papers show specific examples of how good we have all
become at destroying our environment. From bypassing
Indonesia's Log Export Ban to overharvesting clams in Spain to
overmining in Sierra Leone, commercial exploitation reigns
supreme. But not all is lost. The papers also show how we can
still harmonize ourselves with our habitat when we finally lean
to control environmental degradation through sustainable
development. The reward is bigger than clams, forests and mines.
It is our life. Prep Source:
<http://www.io.com/~hcexres/tem1603/acchtml/oral.html>
Mila Getmansky System Dynamics in Finance
mgetman@ mitedu
Massachusetts Institute of Technology — The session will include speakers whose research is concentrated
Sloan School of Management é : i R
30 Wadsworth Street E53-358 on finance and economics issues studied by using system
Cambridge MA 02139 USA dynamics theory. Theoretical as well as empirical papers are
welcomed to the session. Finance problems such as dynamics
within financial institutions, contagion effects between countries,
interaction between different types of traders in the marketplace
and many other situations in the modem financial markets are
inherently dynamic. However, current approaches grounded in
finance and economic theory impose static assumptions and try
to find equilibrium solutions represented in a closed form. A
system dynamics approach introduces more realistic
assumptions. System dynamics also provides a ground for a
dynamic analysis that leads to insights into important financial
problems.
Alan K. Graham Consultant's Roundtable
alan.graham@ paconsulting.com
BA. Consalling BIND floor This year’s Consultant's Roundtable will follow a new format,
Cambridge MA 02142 USA focusing on questions of interest to consultants, and what
consultants know that would be useful for academic and
corporate practitioners. A lively (but moderated) panel of
consultants will discuss questions submitted in advance.
158 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Scott T. Johnson
johnsost@ bp.com
3111 Winding Shore Lane
Katy TX 77450 USA
Keith Linard
keith@ linard.info
University of New South Wales
Centre for Business Dynamics
42 Rivett Street
Hackett ACT 2602 Australia
Alan Charles McLucas
a.mclucas@ adfa.edu.au
University of New South Wales
Australian Defence Force Academy
School of Civil Engineering
Northcott Drive
Campbell ACT 2600 Australia
Oil and Gas Industry
The oil and gas industry is highly capital intensive, risky, and
competitive. In order to establish and maintain respectable
growth rates relative to their competitors, companies must
continuously strive to improve their performance. This session
will address the role of system dynamics methods and tools for
achieving these higher levels of performance. Each of the
applications included are mostly practical in nature, providing
insight into the strengths and weaknesses of specific approaches
implemented by real companies. Major topics include: an
example of repeated overshoot and collapse behavior, an
overview of past applications and emerging trends for managing
a variety of market, business, and project dynamics; and finally,
a practical example of an altemative modeling approach that
addresses the tradeoffs between facility availability and capital
investment.
Military Roundtable
Despite the fact that US, NATO and allied military forces have
had a profoundly systemic approach to training and operational
planning for some three decades, the system dynamics modelling
approach has had limited success in gaining the status of
“orthodoxy.” The Military Roundtable will seek ways to
increase awareness within military circles of the utility of system
dynamics modelling. The Roundtable will focus on three issues:
A. The state of awareness of senior defence executives re system
dynamics modelling: Practitioners will present approaches found
to be effective in marketing system dynamics modelling and
identify defence-specific “mental models” that militate against
widespread acceptance of the system dynamics modelling
paradigm. B. Significant system dynamics modelling projects
undertaken for Defence agencies: Practitioners will present
overviews of projects, commenting on the outcome and
identifying specific system dynamics modelling consulting
lessons learnt. C. Ways to promote system dynamics modelling
in Defence.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 159
Author Index
Ignacio J. Martinez-
Moyano
im7797@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Rockefeller College
135 Western Avenue Milne 101A
Albany NY 12222 USA
George P. Richardson
gpr@ albany.edu
University at Albany
Rockefeller College
Milne 318
Albany NY 12222 USA
This session is sponsored by
HVR Consulting Services Ltd.
Paul Newton
paulnewton@ stewardshipmodeling.com
667 St. James Circle
Green Bay WI 54311 USA
Jack B. Homer
jack@ homerconsulting.com
Homer Consulting
36 Covington Lane
Voorhees NJ 08043 USA
Morten Ruud
morten.ruud@ ifi.uib.no
Eidesaasen 103
5750 Odda Norway
An Expert View of the System Dynamics
Modeling Process: Concurrences and
Divergences Searching for Best Practices in
System Dynamics Modeling
We intended this research both to discover a set of core practices
in the system-dynamics modeling process and to identify the best
of them according to the knowledgeable opinion of a recognized
group of experts in the field. The paper addresses two questions:
(1) What aspects of the system dynamics modeling process are
common to all model building regardless of the modeler, the
model, the type of practitioner, the tool used or the purpose of the
model? (2) Which of these areas can be described as “best
practice’? We used a multi-method approach starting with
interviews, then two virtual meetings with former presidents and
award winners from the System Dynamics Society to elicit best
practices and, lastly, a discussion of the results and the
implications for further research was conducted. The paper
identifies 71 ‘best’ practices grouped into six categories. More
importantly, the study also identified 13 practices in which
experts appeared to disagree.
Modeling Assistance Workshop
Modeling assistance is available at the conference to enable
modelers to discuss their specific modeling questions with
modeling coaches. Modeling assistance opportunities include
two workshops, as well as the possibility of assistance at any
time during the conference. Assistance is available for modelers
with all levels of modeling ability, from beginner to advanced.
Modelers’ questions range from a specific model that modelers
are developing or studying, to something that modelers don't
understand in one of the system dynamics textbooks or software
packages. Questions range from problem articulation,
formulation of a dynamic hypothesis, formulation of a simulation
model, model testing, or policy design and evaluation. Modelers
bring whatever materials they need to describe their modeling
question, including pencil and paper, books, posters, or laptop
computers. Spectators are welcome to observe modeling
assistance coaching sessions.
Electricity Based Energy
The energy sector has a long and serious modelling tradition.
Models have served the need to evaluate the impact of different
policies in areas such as pricing, economical growth,
environment and resources. The system-oriented perspective has
been useful because of the long time scales involved, the
160 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Kim D. Warren
kim@ strategydynamics.com
Two Farthings
Aylesbury Road
Monks Risborough
Bucks HP27 0JS UK
Graham W. Winch
graham.winch@ pbs.plym.ac.uk
University of Plymouth
Plymouth Business School
Drake Circus
Plymouth Devon PL48AA UK
Daniel J. W. Arthur
darthur@ plymouth.ac.uk
University of Plymouth
Moneycentre Floor 1
Dept for Enterprise
Plymouth Devon PL4 8AA UK
environmental and economical impact and the potential
altemative energy sources available. The modelling of energy
sector has experience an increased interest in later years. This has
been a result both from the growing concems of environmental
issues like global warming and from a worldwide trend away
from national planned energy policy to liberated, market-oriented
structures. “Electricity Based Energy” will gather a number of
presentations within this field with a special focus on generation,
distribution and consumption of electricity based energy.
System Dynamics of Strategy: Multiple
Dimensions, Multiple Insights
System-driven complexity arises across multiple dimensions of
strategy. First, it afflicts all levels of business strategy, whether
single function concems, whole business units or the multi-
business firm. Complexity arises too across the dimension of
widening competitive scope - whether we are concemed to build
a sustainable business in its own right, in competition with
defined rivals, or within a broad arena of multi-firm rivalry.
Thirdly, though, strategy and policy must adapt to a third
dimension - that of passing time, and the changes to the business
environment wrought by political, social, economic and
technological change. This session brings together three papers
that illustrate these multiple dimensions of strategic challenge,
from a single enterprise being established in a relatively stable
environment, through a competitive situation facing a
multiplicity of firms seeking advantage in a continuing, but
cyclical sector, and finally a context of rapid evolution brought
about by substantial technological change.
Research and Practice Issues in System
Dynamics for Small and Medium-sized
Enterprises
Despite early hopes and views that system dynamics would
become as valuable an aid for SMEs as for larger organisations,
it appears that this is not yet the case. The reasons why the
application of system dynamics in SMEs is often difficult are
well rehearsed: it can be an inherently costly approach, it can be
data-demanding, people exposed to its ideas are more likely to
seek careers in larger organisations, SME entrepreneurs do not
have time to invest and no in-house analysts, etc. This special
session at the conference will hear six short presentations
discussing aspects of this issue, open discussion to the floor,
hoping answer: (i) What can be done in practical terms to
encourage and enhance the practice of system dynamics in
smaller firms? (ii) Is there an agenda for essential research into
the field of system dynamics in smaller firms?
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 161
Index
Workshops
Michael Bean
mbean@ forio.com
Forio Business Simulations
2320 Jones Street
San Francisco CA 94133 USA
Carmine Bianchi
bianchi@ unipa.it
University of Palermo
Faculty of Economics
Piazza A Gentili 12 (c/o CUSA)
90143 Palermo Italy
Enzo Bivona
enzo.bivona@ libero.it
CUSA System Dynamics Group
Piazza A Gentili 12
90143 Palermo Italy
Gianliborio G. Marrone
gianliborio@ tin.it
CUSA System Dynamics Group
viaJotan 14
92013 Menfi AG Italy
Giovan Battista
Montemaggiore
giannimonte@ hotmail.com
CUSA System Dynamics Group
Pzza Alberico Gentili 12
90142 Palermo Italy
162
Methods to Make Y our Simulation Run on the
World-Wide Web
Simulations need to engage the user, be accessible in multiple formats,
be simple to navigate, and correspond to the user's learning objectives.
When simulations are used in workshops or facilitated by the model
creator, modeling experts can compensate for user interface design
problems by directly interacting with the users. But on the web, this is
impractical. Usability design is critical to create simulations that will
be used by a diverse, global audience with limited knowledge of
simulation, short attention spans, and unarticulated use objectives.
During this workshop, Michael Bean will demonstrate how to create
web simulations, discuss commonly occurring web simulation design
challenges and potential solutions, and show examples of web
simulations that have been used by thousands of users. Michael will
also provide a series of guidelines for creating simulations online.
Michael will provide handout booklets, sample simulations, and
sample HTML pages that can be used to create your own first web
simulation.
Matching System Dynamics with Accounting Models
to Enhance Performance Evaluation in Companies
Coping with Major Change
This workshop will be show how interactive leaming environments
including system dynamics and accounting models can substantially
help decision makers in drawing up business plans based on an
improved awareness of the relevant system, to define sustainable
growth policies, both in the short and long run. Main issues covered in
the workshop will be: start-up and growth in SME’s; balanced
scorecards in public utilities; and managing intellectual capital in the
telecommunication industry. Matching system dynamics with
accounting models into ILE’s is likely to improve management control
systems, as decision makers can be supported in better understanding
the impact of soft variables on company performance, and exploring
trade offs between sort and long-term. Such an approach has been
applied by the authors to build dynamic scenario plans whose
simulated results are depicted according to the ‘lens’ of accounting
models.
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Robert Y. Cavana
bob.cavana@ vuw.ac.nz
Victoria University of
Wellington
School of Business and
Public Mgt
PO Box 600
Wellington New Zealand
Diana Fisher
dmfisher@ jps.net
Ron Zaraza
rzaraza@jps.net
Scott C. Guthrie
sguthrie@ teleport.com
Wilson High School
1151 SW Vermont Street
Portland OR 97219 USA
Timothy J oy
tjoy@ jps.net
La Salle High School
11999 SE Fuller Road
Milwaukie OR 97222 USA
Debra A. Lyneis
lyneisd@ clexchange.org
Carlisle Public Schools
83 School Street
Carlisle MA 01741 USA
Alan K. Graham
alan.graham@ paconsulting.com
PA Consulting Group
One Memorial Drive 16th Floor
Cambridge MA 02142 USA
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
Developing Causal Loop Diagrams Using Group
Model Building Methods
There are a number of methods available for building causal loop or
influence diagrams for the conceptualisation stage of system dynamics
modelling study or a systems thinking project. This introductory
workshop will demonstrate a group model building approach, based on
the use of hexagons as a facilitation tool. The workshop will use
materials from the book "Systems Thinking & Modelling:
Understanding Change & Uncertainty” by K.E.Maani and R.Y .Cavana
(Prentice Hall, Auckland, 2000).
Starting a System Dynamics Program in Y our
School for Students in Grades K through 12
The workshop will demonstrate a multi-faceted approach to the
problem of starting a system dynamics program in a K to 12th grade
school environment. Hands-on activities will be provided for the
participants to help them understand what methods might work to
influence teachers to try this experiment. Student work will be
demonstrated. A CD containing training materials used in the National
Science Foundation CC-STADUS/CC-SUSTAIN Project will be
available (at no cost) for all participants. These materials have been
developed over the eight-year history of the project, training high
school and middle schoo math, science, and social studies teachers to
create STELLA models and curricular materials to use in their
classroom. The CD will also contain teacher-created project modules
that have been edited. The workshop will also introduce materials
developed in Carlisle, Massachusetts for younger students in
kindergarten through eighth grade.
Using System Dynamics in Six Sigma/Q uality
Improvement Programs
Corporations set goals to reduce costs, increase revenues and customer
satisfaction, yet despite the applicability, system dynamics has long
struggled to become adopted as a mainstream business practice to help
achieve such goals. Six Sigma is a mainstream quality improvement
practice that is focused on achieving these goals through the
application of statistical tools combined with process mapping,
structured project management, financial measurement, and
management accountability. While Six Sigma implicitly recognizes the
inter-dependency of processes, it has limited understanding of feedback
loops. Six Sigma would benefit by adopting system dynamics and
system dynamics would benefit by working to incorporate itself into
Six Sigma. This workshop will give you a brief introduction to Six
Sigma Quality Improvement methodology, show the common linkages
between Six Sigma and systems thinking that can be exploited to gain
163
Mohammad T.
Mojtahedzadeh
mohammad@ threshold21.com
Millennium Institute
1117 North 19th Street
Suite 900
Adlington VA 22209 USA
John D. W. Morecroft
jmorecroft@ london.edu
London Business School
Sussex Place Regent's Park
London NW1 4SA UK
Alfredo 0. Moscardini
a.moscardini@ sunderland.ac.uk
Donald Edward Prior
don.prior@ sunderland.ac.uk
University of Sunderland
School of Computing &
Eng Tech
St Peter’s Campus
Sunderland SR6 ODD UK
Dominic Houlder
London Business School
Sussex Place Regents Park
London NW1 4SA UK
Alfredo 0. Moscardini
a.moscardini@ sunderland.ac.uk
University of Sunderland
School of Computing
Engineering & Tech
St Peter’s Campus
Sunderland SR6 ODD UK
Stephen J. Brewis
steve brewis@ bt.com
6 Poplars Close
Blakesley
Towchester Northants
NN12 8RW UK
164
acceptance of system dynamics methods and will present examples of
the use of system dynamics methods in Six Sigma Quality
improvement programs.
Digest Workshop: Automatic Detection of Most
Influential Structure in a System Dynamics Model
Digest is an experimental piece of software that reads the text version
of most any system dynamics model and automatically detects and
displays the most influential structure for any given variable in that
model. Bring your laptop to this half-day workshop and you will gain a
running beta test version of the software, copies of several models that
you can work with, plus training in how to load models and use the
software to detect dominant structure in your model. This workshop is
designed for researchers and skilled modelers who are seeking a
chance to work with Digest in the beta test stage of its development.
We are actively seeking user feedback on their experiences using this
new approach to detecting dominant structure.
How to Inject System Dynamics Successfully into
Your Curriculum
An increasing number of educators and management development
professionals are looking to introduce system dynamics into their
programmes. Many practical examples now exist of high-quality
educational modules, simulators and microworlds being used to
complement learning across all sorts of subject areas for high-school
students, undergraduates, graduates and experienced professionals. In
this workshop several leading educators will relay their experiences of
injecting system dynamics into their own programmes. By design these
educators come from different subject disciplines, thereby enabling
workshop attendees to appreciate the range and versatility of modelling
and simulation in higher education. The workshop ends with a
facilitated discussion in which attendees can discuss their own
curriculum innovation needs as well as sharing educational experiences
of using modelling and simulation (both the good and the not-so-
good!).
Modeling Complex Enterprises: Combining the
Strengths of Cybernetics and System Dynamics
Today’s markets are open, heavily regulated, serviced by many players
and greatly influenced by world economies. This dynamic manifests
itself by a market behaviour that is both highly erratic and
uncompromising. How can the various management sciences be used
to aid businesses to manage these situations? This workshop will look
at the strengths of bringing together cybemetics, chaos theory, object
modelling and system dynamics into a framework that can be used to
significantly enhance organisational effectiveness. A case study of
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
J. Meek
Judie Mulholland
judiemul@ lis.fsu.edu
Florida State University
School of Information Studies
2315 Jim Lee Road
Tallahassee FL 32301-6741
USA
Dennis Sherwood
dennis@ silverbulletmachine.com
Silver Bullet Machine
Manufacturing Co
Church Bam
Braboume Kent
TN25 5LR UK
Dennis Sherwood
dennis@ silverbulletmachine.com
Silver Bullet Machine
Manufacturing Co
Church Bam
Braboume Kent
TN25 5LR UK
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Author Index
British Telecom’s public payphone service will be used as an working
example of how these methodologies can be brought together to solve
complex business problems. The workshop aims to bring together
interested parties to explore these ideas. It is not expected that
interested parties have a detailed knowledge of each discipline.
Where the Model Meets the User: An Interface
Design Workshop for Creating Effective Learning
Environments
Even well-crafted models with fancy front-ends will be flatly rejected
if the user interface is hard to navigate, non-functional and fails to be
engaging. To enable a better understanding of the dynamics behind the
model-user interface, this workshop presents a number of principles
and guidelines drawn from the fields of computer-human interaction
and information architecture. The use of story-telling, visual/behavior
cues, affordances and metaphors, together with illustrations and
critiques of actual model interfaces are just some of the topics that will
be explored during the workshop. Tips on the do’s and don'ts of data
design and display will be presented along with advice on how to avoid
information overload and cognitive dissonance. In addition, workshop
attendees will be given short exercises that will show them the basics
of how to establish atmosphere, use color effectively, and create
suspense, illusion and/or visual momentum.
Creativity Workshop
Creativity - the ability, and confidence, to generate new ideas - is an
integral aspect of much of systems thinking and system dynamics
modelling. We all do this intuitively - but is creativity necessarily an
intuitive process? Or can it be made deliberate and systematic? And
can people be trained to become more creative? In this highly
interactive and energising workshop, Dennis Sherwood will argue -
convincingly - that the answer these questions is ‘no’, ‘yes’ and ‘yes’
respectively. To prove the point, he will show you how to use his
InnovAction!TM process - and you will be amazed how many new
ideas you will be able to discover!
Fast Track Strategic Modelling Workshop
Scenario planning is, arguably, the most powerful of the strategic
planning methodologies, and system dynamics modelling is a
wonderful way to simulate the dynamic behaviour of any scenario.
Strategy planning models, however, are complex, and since each
business is different, we are always starting from scratch. But is this
necessary? Are there ways of making strategic modelling a much more
generic process? In this workshop, Dennis Sherwood will describe
some work he has been doing recently in creating a generic strategic
modelling structure. Of course, this is not a complete answer to all
165
strategic modelling problems, but Dennis feels that the structure he will
be describing is a very useful core. Dennis will much appreciate your
views!
Arlen Wolpert Introduction to the Feedback Phenomenological
avoleeie vers store 1008 Method, As Illustrated by Its Application to a 10-
in roe 4
Cambridge MA 02139 USA Hour Religious Experience
TFP is a system dynamics-based method for converting Husserl's
important, but difficult, transcendental phenomenological method into
a relatively simple formalized science. TFP analyzes consciousness and
imagination to resolve traumatic experiences. The key reason TFP
succeeds is it structures consciousness as a multiloop nonlinear
feedback system, the same structure as the neurophysiological system
underlying consciousness. Thus, TFP opens up phenomenology,
consciousness studies, and deep psychotherapy as new territories for
system dynamics applications. Focus of the one hour workshop will be
on my ISDC 2002 conference paper on TFP. The method will be
illustrated by its application to a 16 hour religious experience. An
integral part of the workshop will be questions and criticism from
attendees. System dynamicists at all levels, phenomenologists,
psychotherapists, and other scholars are invited to attend, but I hope
most of those who wish to comment will download my paper, carefully
read it, and then bring it to the workshop.
166 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Index
Author Index
Abdel Azim, Hazem........ccccesecseeeeeneneee
Ackoff, Russell
Adamides, Emmanuel ..............000008
Adel, Ziad.
Ahmad, Sajjad.
Ajami, Mahmoud ....0......eseeeeeeseesrennes
Akkentli, Omer
Akkermans, Henk.
Akpunar, Elif......
Al Etr, Tarek
Alessandri, Angelo.
Alessi, Stephen.....
Alonso Magdaleno, Ma Isabel
Alvarez deToledo Saavedra, Pablo
Alvarez Sierra, AD@].......ccccsesseseseeeeseeeeee
Alvarez Sierra, Carlos ......c.cccceseseseeseeeeee
Aly Abdel Aleem, Bahaa.
An, Soowoong....
Andersen, David....
Andersen, Deborah.
Andrade, Mercedes
Andrade Sosa, Hugo Hernando.
Arango, Santiago...
Argyrides, Andry
Ariza, Carlos.
Barton, John
Bavea, Maria ..
Bayer, Steffen
Bean, Michael.
Belyazid, Salim.
Berchi, Robert0........cccccesseseseeeen
Beyeler, Walt.......esceeseseeseenee
Bianchi, Carmine
Bijlsma, Michel
Bitkova, Tatyana.
Bivona, ENZO ......cessscssecseesseeseesee
Black, Laura
Blecic, Ivan.....
Boga, Sadruddin
Bollen, Lars
Bonadia, Graziella
Borja, Angel
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 167
Botterud, Audun.
Bourguet, Rafael ..
Bouryak, Alexander ............csssessessseeeee
Brewis, Stephen ..........sccseessessseeseeeereeee
Brown, Theresa.......cccsesesssseseseeeeseseeeeee
Brugnoli, Carlo .....escesceseeseeseesseeeeeeeeee
Burelli, Francesco ..
Burgman, Roland...
Bums, James........
Canestraro, DOna.........ccssesesseseseseeteneses
Canovi, AdONf0.......cecescccssseseeteseseeeenenenes
Cariello, Pasquale.
Casanova, Philippe
Cavaleri, SEVEN ......cecscssssesesteseseesesenenes
Cavaliere, Christianne
Cavan, Robeft........cecesecssesesesteseseseeneneses
Cecchini, Arnaldo .......c.cccsesesteseseseeseneses
Cervellera, Cristiano.........c.cccsceseseseeseneeee
Chen, Y a0-TSUNG ......csscesseessessseesesseeseeoee
Cho, SUNGSOOK......0..ssesceseesseesseeseseeseeee
Choi, Carol ......
Ciceri, Ivan.....
Ciraolo, Luigi
Conrad, Stephen.........escceesessseeseseeee
Cook, Meghan...
Cooke, David
Cooper, Maguie wicisiinsinineamnnawa
Coyle, R. Geoffrey...
Craioveanu, Mihaela ........c.cccseesesseseeee
Crespo Marquez, Adolfo .........0...
Cresswell, Anthony
Withdrawn.
Dale, Rebecca.
D'Alessio, Raffaele
Danell, Oje
Dangerfield, Brian
Davulis, John
de Holanda, Giovanni
Delli Gatti, Domenico
Dengel, Harald.
Diker, Vedat...
Dyer, ISaC.......sssesesseeseesseseeeseee
Eberlein, Robert.
Emmi, Philip
Enei, Ernesto
168 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Filletti, Vincenzo...
Fiorello, Davide
Fischer, Mathias.
Fisher, Diana.
Fleming, Cherylne.
Ford, David......
Forster, Crai
Framinan, Jose Manuel.
Franco, Carlos
Franco, Joao Henrique.
Fratesi, Ugo
Frolova, Juli
Gallegati, Mauro
Garcia Madrid, Conrado
Gary, Michael Shayne
Gebauer, Heiko
GelveZ, Lili .....ccecseesseeessseesseeeesseesseeesseee
Genta, Peter
Georgantzas, Nicholas.............00+
Getmansky, Mila...
Gill, ANthONY woe. eeseeseeseesteseeseeeee
Gillespie, David ........ cesses
Giulioni, Gianfranc0.........cceeeeeeeeeeeeeee
GolOvini Deccessommmessooemnesmaess
Gongalves, Paulo.......ccsessesseseeseeseeneeeseeen
Gonzalez, Jose...
Graham, Alan
Grassia, BURP PG. sescsiessceeensesrenerencencornsvanpenee
GrORler, ANCVCAS........c.cesesesseseeeeseseseeeeseseeee
Grossmann, BjOM........cesceseeseeseeseeeeeeee
Grossmann, WOlf.......c.cccscssesesseseseseseeeseeee
Grubenmann, Peter
Guardans, RaMO0 ........cscscssesesseseseseseeseseeee
Giimeralp, Burak.......ceeceseesseeseeseesseeseseee
Guthrie, Scott.
Given, Caglara..... eee
Giiven, Sibel oo. cceceesesesesesteseseseeteeseeee
Guzméan-Nacoud, Antonio........c.ceccsseeceeeee
Hansen, Kent ....ccccccececeeseseseeeeeee
Haraldsson, H6rdur...........ecececeee
Haroon, Mohamed ............ecececeee
Haslett, Tim ...cccccccssesesessesesesseseseseseeseseeee
Hassan Zaky, Naglaa............cese
Heffernan, Mark
Hellinga, Bruce.
Hennekam, Hans.
Hernandez, Adolfo
Homer, Jack...
Hong- Minh, Séverine
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 169
Huang, Yan......
Hunley, Tara...
Tacona, Lisi
Igumnova, Ekaterina
Tto, Ky eceeeceseee
Jamal, Iqbal......
Jarosch, Daniel.
Jeng, Bingchiang..
Jensen, Eva...
Jensen, Stine.......
Jia, Jianguo ..
Joglekar, Nitin.
Johnson, Scott
Johnstone, Ron.
Jongebreur, W outer
Joy, Timothy
Kainz, Daniel
Kalén, Christer.
Kameyama, Saburo .........ssessessesseeseesresnesseesed
Kapmeier, Florian ...........ceeseseeeereseeseeead
Karanfil, Ozge.
Karimi-Tabar, A
Karsky) Michel sacmussssnccnnmoe|
Kashiwazaki, Hiroshi
Kasperska, Elzbieta
Kennedy, Michael............csses
Withdrawn. 155
Kim, Ki-Chan
Kim, Sang-Wo0k....... cesses i114)
Kljajic, Miroljub
Kobayashi, Hidenori .............0..04.
Koca, Deniz
Koenig, Ulli... eeceeeeseseeseseeseeseeseennees
Koltchanov, Vladimir................0.
Kongnetiman, Stanley ............sceseseeeeeee
Korobitsin, Victor...
Kraev, Egor
Kreitel, Angelika... cesceseeseesseeseeseesseeseesees
Kummerow, Max
Lee, Myoung Ho
Lee, Sang HYUp oo... eeseeeceeseesseessesseeseseee
Le@F@vre, JaCQues......seecsesecssecsseessneesnieesseee
Legna Verma, Carlos «0.0...
L@ON, JOSC......scesseseseesesseeessneseesesneeteseeeeenees
Levecg, Philippe ........cescescesesseeseereeeeee
Levin, ya ..cesceeseeseesseessessessesseeseesseeseseee
Levine, Ralph
170 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Li, Nong.........
Li, Shyh-Jane
Linard, Keith.
Lino, Alessandro....
Little, Richard.....
Liu, Jingjiang..
Lo, Andrew......
Lomi, Alessandro ......c.cccccssesestesesesseseseses
Lépez- Ortega, Eugenio.
Lossius, Trond
Lounsbury, David.
Loutfi, Mohamed
Lu, Gefei.........
Luna, Luis........
Lyneis, Debra.
Lyneis, James.
Maani, Kambiz.
Macharis, Cathy
Madachy, Raymond
Mahanty, Biswajit
Maharaj, Vandana
Mahmoud, Zainab
Malakis, Thomas
Mandal, Abhijit
Marafioti, Elisabetta
Marrone, Gianliborio......
Martinez-Moyano, Ignacio
2
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Mashayekhi, Ali... cscs
Mastrantonis, Helen
Mateja-Losa, Elwira.
McDonnell, Geoff.
McFadden, Willie
McLeod, Robert.
MeLucas, Alan .....cceeseseseseseeeeeeee
McQuinn, Brian
Meek, J.
Mehm000, ATif ......ccceccseseeseseseeseseseseseeneneeeeee
Mellett, Una.....ccsccscsssssesesssssescsseecsssseeeesssseee
Membrillo, Annabel
Méndez Acosta, Carlos
Menezes, Esther.
Meskens, Nadine.
Michnowski, Leslaw
Miki, Tatehiko ........scesssesessesssseeesseesneeesneense
Miklashevich, Ihar
Milazzo, Attilio.
Miller, Brendan.........c.ccccesesesesseseseeeseeseseeee
Milling, Peter.........scescesesssessesseeseeseesseenee
Mills, Jim
Milrad, Marcel .......c.ccscsessesesesseseseeeeeeseseeee
Milstein, Bobby swsuicssimane auras
Mojtahedzadeh, Mohammad
171
Mollona, Edoardo.
Monga, Pavinder..
Montagna, Michael
Montemaggiore, Giovan Battista ..
Moon, Taehoon.......
Moore, Jonathan.....
Morecroft, John.
Moreu, Pedro......
Morita, Michiya.....
Morsi, Cherine....
Moscardini, Alfredo
Moxnes, Eniing.
Mulholland, Judie... cesses
Munoz, Miguel...
Newton, Paul ......
Nicholson, Charles
Niesing, Cees
Norwick, Stephen.
Nuhoglu, Mert......
Nunez Hemandez, Fernando.
Ochoa, Catalina......
Ochoa, Patricia....
Oggianu, Stella...
Olaya, Camilo
Oner, M. Atilla....
Osorio, Jairo.....
Osorio, Silvia......
Ossimitz, Giinther
Otto, Peter........
Ozdemir, Ebru
Pagel, Erica.
Pala, Ozge
Palme, Johannes.
Papastaikoudi, Jannette
Pardo, Theresa .........cccsscsesseseseeeee
Park, Sang-hyun.
Parra Valencia, Jorge
Parvizian, Jamshid
Pedercini, Matteo
Perdicoulis, Anastassios
Petersen, Lars
Petrides, Lazaros.
Pfeiffer, David
Pinkwart, Niels
Pixell, Roman
Polo, Felipe.
Pourdehnad, John.
Powell, John
Prior, Donald
Provenzano, Davide
Qu, Weishuang
Quinn, Patricia
Rahmandad, Hazhir................0066
172 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Ramboer, Ruben....
Raphael, Michael
Rasmy, Dahlia...
Ratliff, William.......
Repenning, Nelson.....
Richardson, George...
Richkowski, Richard
Richtenburg, Karl... cesses
Rinaldi, Martin
Rizzi, Paola.
Robards, Karen
Rockey, Samantha...........cscesseeeeeseeee
Rodriguez, Nubia
Romme, A. Georges
Rouwette, Eti@nne ........cceesesseseseseeeeeses
Rovida, Enrico
Rowland, Mark
WithdrawD.........seecsceeesseessseeeeseesseeeeseeess
Rubiano Ovalle, Oscar
Ruiz-Usano, Rafael
Ruud, MOTten.......cceesesscseseeeeeseseeseneneses
Ryzhenkov, Alexander
Saboe, Michael.
Saccomanno, Frank
Salini, Patrice.
Saloma-Velazquez, Rita...
Sanders, Frank
Santovito, Rogerio
Sasai, Kengo.......scessseseesseessesssesseesesseesneens
Sato, Mitsuhiro ......cccecsccseeceeteseseeseseneseseeees
Sause, ANGPOW.......ccccccsesscsessseeeseseeseteneseseeees
Sayin, Erol.
Saysel, Ali
Schade, Burkhard.
Schade, Wolfgang
Schieritz, Nadine.......c.c.cccccssseseesesereeseneneee
Schild, Heinz ..
Schmidt, Markus.......c.ccccccsssseseesesereeseeeeee
Schéneborm, Frank
Schrombgens, Philip
Schwaninger, Markus.
Schwarz, Rainer.
Screnci, Nicholas
Sedehi, Habib
Senge, Peter...
Shen, Shouqin.........000
Sherwood, Dennis
Sisodia, Rajendra
Skraba, Andrej
Slota, Damian
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy 173
Smith, Denise.
Smith, Ricardo
Smolin, V.
Soehodho, Sutanto
Soto, Rogelio .......
Sotudeh, Reza.....
Sparacia, Sergi:
Sruogis, V aidotas ......... cesses
Stamboulis, Y COryi0s .........ceceees
Stankosky, Michael
Stave, Krystyna.
Stephens, Craig
Sterman, JOHN .......cceecseseseeeeeeenes
Strohhecker, Jiirgen.
Struben, Jeroen.
Stuntz, Lees...
Suetake, Toru.
Sveiby, Karl-Eric
Svensson, Mats .......cccccceeeee
Sverdrup, Harald
Sweeney, Linda.
Takahashi, Y utaka.
Thompson, David.
Thompson, Fiona
Thun, Jorm-Henrik.
Timchenko, Igor
Timchenko, Irina.
Travassos, Guilherme.
Tretter, Felix......
Triantis, Konstantinos..............68
Tseng, Y a-Tsai
Tsuchiya, Shigehisa
Tu, Yi-Ming
Turbow, David.
Uhm, Kiyoung
Ulgen, ONUP......eeceeceeseeseeseesneseee
Uno, Hirofumi
Uribe, Jorge...
Usabiaga Ibatiez, Carlos
Vail, EAMONG........eesseesceeseecseesseesneeseesteseeeseeens 144
van Oorschot, Kim
Varelis, Angelos
Velasquez, Manuela.
VEOMMIX, JAC. eseeecesseeseeneseesteseeseseeteneeneens
Wang, Qifan
Wang, Yong
174 20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
Warwick, Jonathan.
Weaver, Elise
Weijnen, Margot ........cescesessesseesesseseeseseed
Welles, P@ter.......cccssssssssesessssesessseseeseseeeereaees
Werner, Claudia
Wheat, Davi
White, Anthony........cecceseseecseesseeseesseeseseed
Williams, Ddembe
Wilson, Martha ........c.ccccccesesecsesessseeneeseeeereneee
Winch, Graham........c.ccceeseseseeeeseseed
Wing, Phillip
Winthagen, S.
Wolpert, Arlen
Wright, Darryl.
WU, Yi JUNG... eeceecssessseessneeseeeesneesneenes 24
Xia, Bing o.seeecsseecsseessseesseesseeesseeesseesseeenen (50)
XU, BO wieecsesccsessesesesesseteseseseesenesesesnenes
Xu, Jingxin
Xu, Qingrui
Yamada, Wade........ceceessecssecseecseecsecseeeneeeeceed 24
Yan, Yong Chooi
Yeon, Seung-jun
Yoon, Joseph
Young, Showing
Withdraw........ssecsssesccssescsseessseessneessseessseesseee LOD
Zagonel, Aldo sswsissssnirasiaanwaanavn (55)
Zaraza R Oni cscs cancers: [OD
20" International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 28 - August 1, 2002, Palermo, Italy
LOL QUIS sscsonnssrecrnvercennnenrsusiruacteronstenennvonseed
Zhao, Xiaogin
Zheng, Gang
Ziomek, Agnieszka ...........00cs0e
To help you get around
Palermo, we have noted
MAJOR roads and the
conference venues.
Please consult city maps,
Sicilia Dreams Tour Desk
or Tourist Information for
detailed maps and further
information.
MAP IS NOT TO SCALE.
S Grand Hotel Villa Igiea
Salita Belmonte, 43
(at intersection with Via Pappa
Sergio and Via C. Rampolla)
Phone: +39 091 54 37 44
Via Papa Sergio ©
Salita Belmonte
Via Comte
Via Ammiragiio
Rizzo
oe Monte
Pellegrino
Piazza
Ucciardone
Via Francesco Crispi
Wie ror
Corso Vittorio Emanude
<
=
cI
Foro Italico, ————_
—
Via Della
Vetreria
—
Via IV Aprile
Via S.M dello
‘Spasimo
‘oma
Via Emmerico Amari
Via Della Liberta
‘ViaXX Settembre
Via Latini
—
[Via Ruggero Settimo
:
g
>
Via Maqueda
[Via Voltumo
| vieadeine Lincoln
In case you need more help call:
Enzo: +39 338 43 81 446, or
Gianni: +39 339 42 90 802, or
Gianly: +39 33 55 28 38 98
* Grand Hotel et Des Palmes
ia Roma 398
(between Via M. Stabile and
ia P. Granatelli)
Phone: +39 091 60 28 111
ASSINDUSTRIA
ia XX Settembre 64
(between Via Trapani and
ia Siracusa)
Phone: +39 091 72 11 100
Residenza D’Aragona
ia Ottavio D’Aragona 25
(between Via M. Stabile and
ia Bentivegna)
Phone: +39 091 66 22 222
ee. Palazzo Steri
Piazza Marina 61
(near the north end of Corso
ittorio Emanuele)
IPhone: +39 091 611 1365
* Ch Dello Spasimo
ia Santa Maria dello Spasimo 13
(between Piazza Magione and
ja Torremuzza)
Phone: +39 091 61 6186
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