Common knowledge in the wind industry pinpoints inconsistent policy, such as the production-tax credit scheme in the US, as a key source for boom and bust cycles in the wind energy industry. This paper looks at the sources of the industry boom and bust via a system dynamics model for diffusion of wind energy technology. A model is developed through the combined use of theory and calibration to a set of comparative national and state-level cases. The formulated model captures the effects of inconsistent policy for different national scenarios. The paper demonstrates through the system dynamics model how short-term bias can harm the long term development of the industry by perpetuating these boom and bust cycles. Finally, various policy scenarios that will encourage more sustainable industrial growth are suggested and simulated within the model.
This paper studies the role that energy efficiency improvements can have in Italy. After a wide discussion of the situation of the European Union and Italy in the context of the climate change issue, it proposes two kinds of simulations which aim to measure possible energy efficiency improvements: bottom-up and top-down simulations. They can be seen as complementary methods for studying the savings that can be obtained through energy efficiency. The estimations show that the possible gains are huge, both in energy and monetary terms. Thus, their exploitation should be considered as a fundamental step of the Italian climate change policy.
The literature recognizes the dynamics of Intellectual Property Rights implementation. However, a framework that examines these dy-namics and analyses the interactions is missing. We use established theory to build a system dynamics model that explores the feedback effects of Intellectual Property Rights use, infringement and en-forcement to explain how the strength of Intellectual Property Rights arises. Model analysis reveals that the strength of Intellec-tual Property Rights arises endogenously without being tied to the formulation of the law.
The prevalence of obesity in the UK is mirroring trends in the USA. There is a need for research to provide public health agencies with advice as to the most effective means of securing behavioural change. The work reported here is in its very early stages. The history of obesity modelling using system dynamics is charted. A model of the energy intake and expenditure by a population of children aged 2-15 years is then described. Both of these two influencing factors on the caloric balance are modelled in some detail. A specimen output graph is included before an exposition of the intended use of the model. Mention is made of soft variables and the role of social marketing in effecting behavioural change.
The arid Manas River Basin, Xinjiang, China, similar to the other arid regions is facing the problem of water constraints. Within the social economic and political systems, growth and expansion has always been the key driving force while it occasionally is forced to slow down or even decline due to the water constraints. To date, the growing populations, industry and agriculture water demand has largely been met by improving and expanding reservoir capacity, by mining fossil groundwater resources, and by improving the water use efficiency. However, bringing future demand in line with available supplies will require increasingly efficient water management practices and greater conservation of water resources. A system dynamics approach has been used to develop a model to evaluate the sustainability of the water resource system in the Manas River basin. The study shows that the technical solutions on the improvement of water supply and the improvement of water use efficiency are not the fundamental solutions. Acknowledging the water capacity and changing a growth orientated value system is crucial in the sustainability of Manas River Basin.
Numerous studies and publications focus on the concept of information system value analysis in industry. The purpose of this paper is twofold: 1) We have endeavoured to describe the as yet still rather unconventional concept of organisational value, demonstrating that both technical and cognitive aspects play a part in its construction. Not only are the components of this organisational value linear and static; they interact with each other over time. Our wish, in fact, was to study the evolutionary dynamics of this organisational value generating a greater or lesser impact on corporate performance; 2) We have built a teaching simulator (a "serious game") to illustrate how this systems dynamic works and to show students how the usually-concealed drivers of change generate this organisational value. The teaching value of the tool is to provide two modes of operation: the automatic mode, where the computer decides, and the manual mode, where the student decides alone or as part of a group.
In this paper, we present results from a modeling excercise to understand human pressures on a forest sanctuary in Rajasthan, India. For the very poor energy insecure households and communities located inside and in proximity to the Kumbhalgarh Wildlife Sanctuary, harvesting forest resources from the government sanctuary constitutes a critical source of livelihood. The