The aim of social scientists is to capture the causal mechanisms that explain behavior of people and groups of people, such as communities, societies or firms. Such an endeavor becomes increasingly difficult as theorizing concerns patterns of behavior. A theory of behavior explains how the cause-effect structure of interaction among specific variables leads to emergent paths of behavior of these variables. Thus, building theories of behavior implies creating a narrative that connects a deep theoretical structure to a repertoire of plausible behaviors that encompass the observed critical events and behaviors. A problem challenging discursive theories of behavior is the quality and robustness of inferred connections between causal structure and emerging behaviors. Equally difficult is to understand how modifications of theoretical assumptions, crystallized into a model, lead to modifications of the phenomenon under study. To make the described endeavor even more challenging, observed patterns of behavior are often produced by path-dependent processes that amplify non-systematic and stochastic disturbances. In this essay, we suggest that the interaction between field research, computer simulation and System Dynamics allows to elicit causal models from the rich texture of everyday life.
The authors developed a Dynamic Whole System Model of Alcohol Harm Reduction for the England Department of Health, to support local commissioning of alcohol related services. The project used group model building, based on the best evidence available. It is intended to help local primary care commissioners reduce hospital admissions attributable to alcohol. The main high impact interventions incorporated are brief advice in Primary Care, the employment of Alcohol Health Workers in hospital, and Specialised Treatment. The key output measures are hospital admissions and costs. The model uses four consumption groups (Abstainers; Lower Risk; Increasing Risk; Higher Risk) including binge and dependent drinkers in more than one state. Each state has a differing propensity for hospital admissions. The model provides a dynamic cost analysis; as interventions move people between states hence changing their risk of admission to hospital. The model contains a set of policies parameterised by the Department of Health, but also allows for local settings. The work relates to the search for consistent and cohesive policies by which central government can guide local actions. The approach of using dynamic models goes beyond action lists for guidance and allows localities to learn what will work for them.
The unprecedented increase in recent years of cartel-related violence has presented growing challenges both to Mexicos socio-political stability and to the United States (US) National interests. Current efforts to address Mexican cartels treat these organizations as only drug-trafficking networks and focus on law enforcement measures to interdict their operations. In this paper, we approach the cartel problem from a systems thinking perspective and present a holistic assessment of these complex criminal networks operating in multiple domains. By highlighting the dynamic relationships and complex feedbacks between critical variables involved in different domains of cartel operations, we identify the inherently systemic causal factors contributing to the problem situation. We argue that the efforts that rely on law enforcement measures and technological assistance alone will fail to produce lasting change. Instead they need to be coupled with high leverage strategies that address the socio-economic root causes that foster weak public institutions perpetuating illicit activities in Mexico.
The escalation of violence in Mexico and along the border with the United States has triggered a number of social responses that attempt both to control and to live with current levels of uncertainty in both countries. Additionally, several other social problems have contributed to the messiness of the current situation making it difficult for individuals and governments to identify leverage points of intervention. This work explores dynamic drivers of the emergence of violence in Mexico and along the border with the United States as a specific manifestation of the social processes that turn illegality into instability. A system dynamics approach is used to explore these issues in an effort to identify high-leverage points of intervention.
Finding the difficulties and concerns of the client, understanding the variables involved in creating the difficulties, exploring the casualty amongst the identified variables and framing the dynamic hypothesis is the most critical and difficult phase of system dynamics modeling process. Although, there are many ideas in literature to carry out this phase, lack of a comprehensive qualitative method is noticeable. Hence, the authors of current paper, by reviewing the literature, introduce an inclusive and customized grounded theory method, specific to requirements of qualitative system dynamics modeling. Additionally, this paper argues that the methodology described in the paper could contribute to integrating of existing methodologies, facilitating the iterative process of modeling and set up a systematic framework in order to maintain and relate findings of qualitative phase to quantitative phase in system dynamics modeling process.
Capital asset replacement has a significant effect on company cash flow, since the investment on new asset is expensive. Overhaul policy can extend the optimal service life of an asset, and results in lower total life cycle cost of an asset. Technological change also affects the life cycle cost and optimal service life of an asset. In this paper we examine the replacement/renewal and overhaul/refurbish policies in a combination under technological change. We used System Dynamics model and simulate hypothetical data for 4 cases, and the output is in line with some previous studies using analytical models.
Tourism is a dynamic and complex system, which involves numerous stakeholders, each with different understandings of the system and holding different management objectives. These different expectations result in unforeseen conflicts among stakeholders that could negatively affect the development of tourism. This paper describes a participatory systems approach to develop a shared understanding amongst stakeholders of the tourism system in the UNESCO designated Cat Ba Biosphere Reserve in Vietnam.
Article describes the complex of imitation models of social sphere. The model complex is intended for support of decision-making in social sphere, focusing on problems of reforming of housing, public health services and social security. The complex is realized on the basis of system dynamics methods and modern technologies of simulation modeling.