Military strategists are increasingly recognizing that planned interventions sometimes fail to achieve their goals, especially in the long term, because planning is done with a limited view of possible outcomes rather than a whole-systems perspective. The systems modeling methodology of system dynamics is well-suited to address many of the dynamically complex problems that arise in the context of military planning issues. The purpose of this paper is to highlight key features of the system dynamics method as it might be applied to military planning. The paper develops an illustrative model of a stylized military planning situation and uses it to illustrate typical characteristics of system dynamics models and their use to understand system behavior. The example highlights basic structural features found in system dynamics models including stocks and flows, balancing and reinforcing feedback loops, nonlinearities, and time delays. The example shows how structure causes behavior and identifies several characteristic aspects of the behavior of dynamically complex systems, such as the basic dynamics of stocks and flows, dynamic equilibria, paradoxical patterns of behavior over time (e.g., better before worse), shifts in loop dominance, and tipping points. The paper closes with some thoughts on using system dynamics to improve military planning.
We develop a formal model of dynamic problem solving motivated by an example of doctors handling a medical emergency. The model links interpretation and choice, usually separated in the sensemaking and decision making literatures. Three insights emerge: (1) dynamic problem solving includes acting, interpreting, and cultivating diagnoses; (2) dynamic feedback among these processes opens and closes windows of adaptive problem solving; and (3) reinforcing feedback processes, usually considered dysfunctional, are essential for adaptive problem solving.
In recent years several scholars and practitioners have proposed that a combination of system dynamics and the resource-based view of the firm (RBV) can help to explain anomalies in firms competitive performance over time. For example why do some firms, despite initial success, subsequently falter and even fail spectacularly. This article provides a practical example based on the well-known rise and fall of People Express in the highly competitive US airline industry of the mid-1980s. The contribution of RBV and system dynamics to understanding the changing fortunes of the firm is discussed and also critiqued.
The scientific community agrees global climate change caused by anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) is occurring, and the projected rise in average global temperatures as a result of climate change could lead to serious consequences for human health, economies and the environment. The transportation sector is a significant source of CO2 emissions, and in the United States accounts for 28 percent of GHG emissions. Because of transportations considerable contribution, the federal government and states have explored and continue to consider ways to lower CO2 emissions from this sector. Biofuels in particular are a popular option for addressing climate change and two main types of biofuels policies have received much focus recently for their potential to reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector: the renewable fuels standard (RFS) and the low carbon fuels standard (LCFS). It is important to analyze and compare these two policies with regard to their potential contribution to the overarching goal of reducing CO2 emissions. By assessing the RFS and LCFS specifically for the state of Minnesota, this project seeks to address the question: How can Minnesota maximize the contribution of biofuels to CO2 emissions reductions through state-level policy?
The paper analyzes the geographical diffusion of system dynamics in academia using information on the affiliations of authors who have contributed to the System Dynamics Review. The paper develops and interprets a set of descriptive indicators that allow the identification of sustainable adoptions of system dynamics in a particular country. Longitudinal analyses indicate difficulties in the diffusion process and point at policies potentially advancing the further dissemination of SD.
In this work we develop a SD model for a make-to-order (MTO) three-stage capacitated production/inventory system. We employ a production order release mechanism affiliated with the automated pipeline inventory and order based production control system (APIOBPCS) policies family. The production rates at each stage are defined under alternative policies. One of the policies considers the human behavior in the decision making process. The robustness of the alternative policies is investigated through the dynamic response of the system under step and pulse changes in demand. Finally, the efficiency of the alternative policies is examined by means of six performance criteria.
The Canada's Air Force (CAF) has been faced with a challenge of retaining skilled, qualified, and trained members. It is common that every year approximately 10 to 15 percent of members from almost all occupations leave the CAF at various ranks. Due to such consistent loss of members, shortage of members has been causing a multi-dimensional undesirable impact (such as work overload, imbalance between work and family life, delays in training and promotions) on the existing members. The researchers at the CAF have identified factors such as low pay and benefits, undesired postings, work overload, and more engagements in non-job related activities. This research explores the underlying structure that drives attrition rates. A formal simulation model is developed that replicates the attrition problem of the CAF. The development of the model uses the data collected through interviews of subject matter experts, and reports of previous work carried out by the CAF staff. The parameters of the model are calibrated based on numeric data of last seven years. The model results are quite promising and consistent in replicating the historical data. The simulation model presented here demonstrates the capability of evaluating the relative benefit of polices aiming at controlling the attrition rate.
This paper describes the model of an industrial society based on fossil fuels whose supply decreases and the society is forced to develop alternative energy sources. It is conceived as an abstract model that captures the basic aspect of such a change, but in a simple and schematic way. Despite this, most of the important dynamics of this problem are included in the model. The results show interesting trends: the transition is possible but not straightforward. The technological change requires time and investment, and the dynamics of such investments are of vital importance. The system can also fall into a stage where no technological change is possible and the industrial ability of the society is lost.
This paper describes a multi-methodology approach used to reveal feedback dynamics operating in supply of, and demand for, skilled information and communications technology (ICT) employees. It describes how a large public service organization has had difficulty in adapting to rapid technological change, and how this has been exacerbated by employee shortages. The impacts of changing demographics of the workforce and society are investigated, along with how these factors impact upon attracting, recruiting, training, and retaining employees. The paper is as much about what is needed to achieve implementation success as it is about the effective application of tools and techniques in the development of strategy. It describes the lessons learnt when a system dynamics model of the supply of ICT skills was combined with a tool that enabled analysis of the risks that shortages would arise, and the consequent cost of those shortages to the organization.
Since the inception of System Dynamics aims to foster in-depth understandings of complex, dynamic problems with the aim of improving learning and decision making at the individual and organizational levels. Whilst considered by many to be a mature discipline, SD still falls short of being universally accepted as a decision making tool. Arguably wider acceptance is inhibited by; how decision makers think about complex problems, and challenges in demonstrating the validity of the developed models, and hence building confidence in those models and the strategies developed from them. Evaluative research is necessary to further investigate the ways decision makers think about complex problems and the utility of SD interventions. This research uses a two-phase methodology to test, at both holistic and feature levels, a SD intervention designed for investigating how managers and consumers make decisions which impact upon the limited water resources of a confined geographical territory. At the holistic level changes to patterns of water consumption arising from re-framing the mental models of the stakeholders will be investigated. At the feature level, an experimental study will test how model transparency affect understanding the problem structure.