This paper provides an example of a system dynamics model that incorporates soft variables. The model examines the challenges that a superpower faces while maintaining its position in the global economic system. The effects on aggregate welfare of the population at home and abroad, as well as, issues of sustaining authority in the long run are explored through experimentation with a computer model. This theory is an extension of the framework developed by Saeed(1990), which was used to understand political instability and the failure of the government to stay committed to welfare agendas in the
developing countries. The present model captures the interaction between several institutional actors involved with the economic and the governance systems. They include the public, the authoritarian regime, the reformist movements that seek change within the existing framework, and the dissident movements that turn to violent methods.
This paper reports an action research study in which we applied Edgar Scheins process consultation approach to a cross-functional problem in a large academic teaching hospital. The project task force was charged with investigating a hypothesized effect of poor lab turnaround time on the risk of probable discharges being postponed until the following day, thereby increasing average length of stay and associated hospital operating costs. The tools we used at different stages of our process included group facilitation, interviews, process flowcharts, systems thinking with causal loop diagrams, and what-if analysis with a system dynamics simulation model. Through facilitation of the task forces work, we were able to reorient each constituent groups perspective from a parochial to a systemic view, greatly improving the task forces functioning and chances for successful sustainable improvement.
Empirical evidence suggests that people perform poorly in dynamic tasks. The thesis of this article is that dynamic decision performance can be improved by helping people to develop more accurate mental models of the task stems through training with debriefing supported computer simulation-based interactive learning environments (CSBILEs). I report a laboratory experiment in which subjects managed a dynamic task by playing the role of fishing fleet managers. One group of participants used a CSBILE with debriefing, whereas another group used the same CSBILE but without debriefing. A comprehensive model consisting of four evaluation criteria is developed and used: task performance, structural knowledge, heuristics, and cognitive effort. It is found that debriefing was effective on all four criteria; debriefing improves task performance, helps the user learn more about the decision domain, develop heuristics, and expend less cognitive effort in dynamic decision making.
Boston's residential real estate market has seen dramatic growth in recent years. Prices have doubled and then doubled again. No one knows how long this will last. Is it a "bubble"? If so, when will it burst? Is it still safe to invest? Is it time to move? Fine questions for owners and speculators--but the consequences of the continuing boom are disastrous for those of lesser means working in Boston. Boston's Mayor Menino has made his Affordable Housing initiative a top priority. Understanding the dynamics driving the market and the success or failure for these initiatives could be a key enabler of robust public strategies. The dynamics displayed and described in this session were developed on a pro bono basis working with Boston's Department of Neighborhood Development at the request of Mayor Menino. Extensions of this work with the Mayor's office and additional housing agencies are underway.
As self-described educators, in our formal instruction of students and teachers and our more recent outreach to a wider array of clients, we have focused on systematically using the full range of system dynamics tools to become, and assist our clients to become, better thinkers and modelers. In a conscious effort to build that capacity through collaborative problem solving, we have devised a ladder of engagement. It is a structure and sequence of activities supporting a powerful and integrated process by which continuously better questions allow us to: (1) probe progressively more deeply into describing the behavior of the system (a rung of KNOWLEDGE); (2) identify the systems features (feedback loops and delays) controlling its behaviors (UNDERSTANDING); and (3) locate and evaluate leverage points in the system where intervention can effectively and efficiently affect its behavior (INFLUENCE). In addition to the ladder's hierarchical structure, at each rung or level the process explicitly incorporates feedbacks designed to develop an iterative learning process that continually reinforces the linking of answers to better questions and the parleying of ones facility within a limited sphere of interest into broader abilities and motivations to pursue more diverse challenges and enduring and generic problems.
Worldwide competition is evolutionary and dynamic; therefore it is necessary that countries not only think in terms of immediate cost but that they foment the necessary conditions under which their companies or new companies can develop competitive advantages based on the innovation.
According to this, it is important that countries like México foment the creation and the development of new industries in the biotechnological cluster, in order to develop new areas in which we could be competitive.
This paper is about the design of a model that could help us to evaluate de viability of the development of a biotechnology cluster in Mexico.
Keywords: biotechnology, cluster development, Innovation
The purpose of this work is to share the experience using a Poster presentation of projects in System Dynamic (SD). The paper focus in how this didactic resource has been a helpful tool supporting the didactics of SD methodology (process) and at the same time a great resource to share with the students the entire project made by each of the class teams (product).
Key words: Poster, systems dynamics, Project Oriented Learning
The UN Millennium Project (MP) team has conducted a comprehensive cross-country analysis of the interventions and investments required to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) . The MP needs-assessment focuses on a number of pilot developing countries, selected on the basis of their low per capita incomes, geographic and political diversity, and record of sound governance. In its analysis, the MP team developed a series of spreadsheet-based models that are used to calculate the cost for the interventions required to achieve the MDGs in the pilot countries . MP methodology is very practical and rich in specific details, but since it relies on exogenous assumptions for economic and demographic growth, it cannot address two issues of interest: (1) the impact of the MDG-related interventions on the economic and demographic development of the country under study and (2) the possible synergies and dissynergies among different MDG interventions. The work described in this paper complements and builds on the work of the MP team by addressing these two important issues and evaluating their implications for MDGs costing and financing. The analysis for this paper was prepared using the Threshold 21 (T21) integrated development model from the Millennium Institute.
The growth of unsolicited commercial email (UCE) imposes increasing costs on organizations and causes considerable aggravation on the part of email recipients. A thriving anti-spam industry addresses some of the frustration. This paper contributes to our understanding of the UCE phenomenon by drawing on scholarly work in areas of marketing and resource ownership and use. Adapting the tragedy of the commons to the email context, we identify a causal structure that drives the direct e-marketing industry. Computer simulations indicate that although filtering may be an effective method to curb UCE arriving at individual inboxes, it is likely to increase the aggregate volume, thereby boosting overall costs. The analysis advances understanding of the digital commons, the economics of UCE, and has practical implications for the direct e-marketing industry.