Global climate change is affecting the rain-runoff process around the world since pre-climate change normal rain patterns are giving way to short periods of strong precipitation, followed by long periods without rain. In addition, temperature and evaporation are expected to increase about 20% over the next 20 years. The State of Guanajuato in Central Mexico utilizes 87% of all available water for agricultural production and is extremely concerned about the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand for its various uses in the short and medium term. To explore the future impacts of climate change in Guanajuato a two-component approach was developed: (1) an atmospheric interface that generates synthetic precipitation, temperature and evaporation time series; and simulates the characteristics of these three meteorological variables and (2) a system dynamics model that beginning with the rain-runoff process generates time related behavior for natural and man-made process for each of 13 watershed that make up the States geography. Base Line and Climate Change scenarios have been generated from the present through 2030 to examine the impacts that this phenomenon is having on each watershed; recommendations have been drawn to assist these areas in adapting to new climate conditions.
In this paper we present our concept and prototype of a web platform which supports participatory modelling. This platform facilitates web-based collaborative and cumulative modelling when face-to-face participatory modelling sessions cannot be organized as often as desired. Successive iteration steps of the model development can thus be displayed interactively in a standard web browser together with comments and explanations made by the modeller. The platform strengthens the support of formal model construction and documentation on the one hand and reduces the effort of model re-publishing on the other hand. This platform shall be used to support participatory modelling and decision-making processes in the field of sustainable development and in many other fields.
Shared capitalism is a set of compensation practices (e.g., employee ownership, stock options, and profit sharing) through which worker pay, or wealth, depends on the performance of the firm or work group. Empirical studies on whether employee ownership improves firm performance, while predominately positive, offer mixed results. This paper addresses the question: under what conditions do shared capitalism policies improve firm performance? A system dynamics model of high performance work systems estimated using the NBER Shared Capitalism dataset and calibrated to a clean technology startup company is presented. The model posits explicit causal mechanisms to explain how various shared capitalism policies and human resource practices influence employee behaviors that drive business processes, and how those business processes interact with market conditions to generate firm performance. Simulation analyses demonstrate that employee ownership and profit sharing create and mediate the strength of multiple reinforcing feedbacks linking firm performance and employee behavior. The more wealth is shared through broad-based employee ownership, the more wealth is created, given the appropriate conditions. Policy analysis suggests how mutual gains for owners and employees can be attained through a balance of salary, stock grants and other shared capitalism policies.
This poster summarizes a project designed to explore the complex social system that influences households decision to use banks and other financial institutions. The dynamic hypothesis was that the number of unbanked and under banked African-Americans in the region was due to a complex interaction of individual behaviors, banking policies and practices, and those of the payday lending industry. The project was designed to develop a grounded theory describing households experiences related to financial institutions and how financial decisions based on previous experiences impacted their household economic security. Group model building methods were used to gather insights from banks, alternative financial institutions, and community residents.
The HealthBound game (available online at http://www.cdc.gov/HealthBound) was developed in 2008-09 under the auspices of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and was described in a plenary talk at ISDC 2009 in Albuquerque. The underlying SD model is the most integrative tool available anywhere for national health policy analysis, and presents the challenge of balancing different types of policies in order to effectively improve population health, lower costs, and achieve greater equity. This workshop starts with introduction to the model and the game, followed by an extended opportunity for small teams to experiment and play the game at their laptops, and concluding with discussion of results and their implications.
Dental caries in primary teeth of children 5 years of age or younger is one of the major health problems in the United States, especially for low-income children. This paper presents a framework for assessing the impact of various programs designed to reduce the prevalence and consequences of Early Childhood Caries. The paper describes a System Dynamics simulation model of the population of children 0-5 years old in Colorado. Results of simulations with a number of individual interventions and combined strategies are presented and program costs and savings in treatment costs are compared.