Political dynamics often arise from within a political system, but can also be affected by outside forces. In order to understand the potential effects of these forces, we created a model to simulate political dynamics in a society under different internal and external conditions. The system dynamics model uses a cognitive modeling framework to determine human behavior. We present the results of the model under four different scenarios, including a base case, a case where an outside government provides support for the opposition, an information operations case, and a show of force case. The model shows that there is potential for these different conditions to have significant effects, including higher-order effects that may be unanticipated if a systems perspective is not taken.
Human and social models are an important capability of system dynamics, and sensitivity analysis can be used to strengthen and better understand these models. To learn about which sensitivity analysis techniques are most suitable for models of human behavior, different promising methods were applied to an example system dynamics model, tested, and compared. The example model simulates cognitive, behavioral, and social processes and interactions, and involves substantial nonlinearity, uncertainty, and variability. Results showed that some sensitivity analysis methods create similar results, and can thus be considered redundant. However, other methods, such as global methods that consider interactions between inputs, can generate insight not gained from traditional methods.
Critical decisions need to be made to face global crises. Modeling and simulation can help to make these decisions effective and shared. Ethical issues are involved in this process and should be included for better quality decisions. Looking at the past helps us to cast light on how ethical choices can be important in resolving critical situations. The ancient Greek city-states of Athens and Sparta show opposed paradigms in policies and life-style, but only one proves itself stable and lasting. Surprisingly, its not the city-state we all would had lived in. Human activities in both city-states cause, in time, internal instabilities. Crises that will be solved through expansionist policies, migrations and colonies settlement. Athens faced seven migrations in less than five centuries. Instead, Sparta, after its first (and only) dramatic migration event, introduced corrective actions to contrast instabilities. The change is ascribed to the mythical lawgiver Lycurgus, but it could likely be the consequence of a shared vision. A simulation model fitting the two city-states behavior has been developed and its structure comprises seven interconnected sectors. The paper includes model description and its interpretation, a brief overview on ethics in modeling, and a note on our project ethics in the evolution of societies.
The water management system for the Washington Metropolitan Area (WMA), like many other public utilities, is reaching its maximum service potential in the face of this rapid growth and climate change. Frequent droughts have not only prompted pricy withdrawals from reserve water supplies more than once, fall of 2010 being the latest case of such water releases, but also have generated varied responses from different local governments that make up the WMA, reflecting lack of cooperation. This also reflects that WMA water supply system is not adequate enough to meet daily demand using only Potomac, Patuxent and Occoquan resources. Prior information about time and volume of releases will not only help in the efficient allocation of water but it will also help in well-informed decision making. Therefore, this paper does the following: 1) Model the demand and supply dynamics for the WMA; 2) Analyze the impact of historical droughts on water availability; and 3) Assesses the performance of the system under various demand scenarios and drought conditions. Finally, the paper concludes that WMA water supply system is susceptible to shortages in future and performance of the system is expected to deteriorate in the coming years with recurrence of historical droughts.
Las Vegas is faced with three important challenges: promoting sustainability, quality of life and resilience. Sustainability is the ability of Las Vegas residents to meet current needs without compromising the ability of future residents to do the same. Quality of life (QOL) is the level of satisfaction of those residents needs and personal preferences. Resilience is a measure of how the city responds to disturbance. A strong city needs a high degree of all three.
The impossibility to identify and represent events and emergent characteristics of the system analyzed with computer simulation models aimed at projecting future events has posed serious questions about their validity in the field of social science. While methodological issues, both concerning the foundations of the methodology and the formulation of models, are identified, the System Dynamics methodology seems to allow modelers to gain a deep understanding of the systems studied while answering the four dilemmas identified in this study. These models allow for the structural representation of the system through the identification of causal relations underlying its main functioning mechanisms, represent both dynamic and detailed complexity using wide social, economic and environmental boundaries. Dynamic simulation models are by no means perfect and will never be; nevertheless, modelers have the responsibility to use our best scientific understanding to develop reasonable and sustainable policies. T21 and PCM, integrated national development models, allow us to do so by enhancing the understanding of systems.
The US Government faces some of the biggest strategic challenges with very high stakes. When should we use military power and how do we use it to improve stability rather than worsen it? How should we manage a huge but limited budget to achieve a wide range of big, unstructured, and evolving strategic objectives? Can we help struggling regions develop and if so how? These questions involve highly complex systems with many dynamics over time. They have the further challenges of a lot of uncertainties, limited data, wide boundaries, many stakeholders, and the need for rapid decision-making. In an environment fraught with politics and skeptics, how can we use analysis to improve the rigor of decision-making on such big and important questions? The authors will use examples from the last 8 years of policy and decision analysis work to illustrate lessons both positive and painful for successful use in government and business, speaking from the perspectives of both modeler and decision-maker, inside and outside the government.