Bier, Asmeret with Michael Bernard, George Backus, Matt Glickman and Stephen Verzi, "Using a Hybrid Cognitive-System Dynamics Model to Anticipate the Influence of Events and Actions on Human Behaviors", 2011 July 24-2011 July 28

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Political dynamics often arise from within a political system, but can also be affected by outside forces. In order to understand the potential effects of these forces, we created a model to simulate political dynamics in a society under different internal and external conditions. The system dynamics model uses a cognitive modeling framework to determine human behavior. We present the results of the model under four different scenarios, including a base case, a case where an outside government provides support for the opposition, an information operations case, and a show of force case. The model shows that there is potential for these different conditions to have significant effects, including higher-order effects that may be unanticipated if a systems perspective is not taken.

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  • 2011 July 24-2011 July 28
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Processing Activity License

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System Dynamic Society Records

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